Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/15/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
824 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE COAST AND
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...MAKING WAY FOR SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEVADA WILL
BRING COOLING TODAY...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MOVING INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER
WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE COASTAL AREAS. SLIGHT COOLING
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...AND IS
BLANKETING THE INLAND VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING
ACCORDING TO VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM MIRAMAR AND
SOME AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT
2500-3000 FEET DEEP. THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS ONLY ABOUT 5 DEG
C STRONG...AND LOCAL WRF AND RAP MODELS INDICATE GOOD CLEARING
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL NOON OR SO THAT THE COAST
CLEARS OUT COMPLETELY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH
DIGGING DOWN INTO NEVADA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS HELPED TO INCREASE
THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. THE STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW IS EVIDENT WHEN YOU SEE THE SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 8.2 MB...WHERE IT WAS ONLY 1.0 MB AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THUS...WITH THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...WE ARE ALSO
SEEING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. LOOK FOR DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES LOWER IN MOST AREAS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO THE
TROUGH AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS THE
ONSHORE FLOW PEAKS.
THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS RISING...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER. ALSO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD...BRINGING WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EACH
NIGHT/MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILLS WILL PROBABLY SEE NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND GUSTS IN
THE 15-25 MPH RANGE...AND LOCALLY TO 35 MPH. THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THAT...AS THERE IS ALMOST NO UPPER
SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS OF ONLY 10-15 KNOTS AND NO SUPPORT AT
700 MB.
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY-SUNDAY IS LOW...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SHARPENING TROUGH MOVE NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...AND THEN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE 06Z GFS SPLITS A CLOSED-LOW OFF OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND BRING IT DOWN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING IT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. FINALLY...THE
00Z GEM HAS GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
THEN A CLOSED LOW MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. NO
MATTER WHAT SOLUTION YOU BUY...IT DOES LOOK LIKE OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME
COOLING. THEN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE ECMWF HAS WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNING...RESULTING IN WARMING AND
DRYING...WHILE THE GFS HAS MOSTLY NEUTRAL FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING. FOR NOW...FORECAST REFLECTS SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
131450Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 2000-3000 FT MSL AND
TOPS 3000-3500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST
COASTAL/VALLEY/FOOTHILL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUAL
DISSIPATION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z...WITH LATEST CLEARING VCNTY
KFUL...KCNO AND KONT. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN 5+ MILES EXCEPT WHERE
CLOUDS OBSCURE TERRAIN. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...WITH LESS INLAND COVERAGE AS BASES LOWER TO
AROUND 1500 FT MSL. KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA WILL HAVE CIGS TONIGHT BUT
KONT MAY REMAIN CLEAR. CLEARING WILL BE MUCH EARLIER MONDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE IN SOME AREAS.
MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
MON.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
849 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND AND LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...THEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 AM UPDATE...
WATCHING AREA OF CLOUDINESS HEADING SW FROM MAINE THIS MORNING.
11Z RAP 975 MB RH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE CLOUDS AND BRINGS IT
INTO EASTERN MA AND ADJACENT S NH BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...
LAST FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS SOME BREAKS ON ITS SOUTHERN
EDGE SO CLOUDS MAY NOT GET MUCH FARTHER S THAN CAPE ANN AND
MERRIMACK VALLEY. ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE CORE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN CHILLY...BUT SEASONABLE...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AFTER THE SLIGHTLY LOWER START MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
TODAY.
ISSUED FROST ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN
MA FOR TONIGHT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THINKING THERE WILL BE
PATCHY FROST ELSEWHERE NEAR THE ADVISORY AREA. CONFIDENCE IS JUST
NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THIS ADVISORY AS NEEDED. STAY TUNED IF YOU HAVE SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MILD TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
* RISK OF SHOWERS LATE WED INTO THU
* MOSTLY DRY WX FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND
OVERVIEW...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE E COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY LOWERING HEIGHTS AS PROGRESSIVE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN TROF MOVES INTO NEW ENG WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS. DIFFERENCES INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK REGARDING HOW MUCH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS LEFT FOR
POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT. 00Z ECMWF IS RATHER BULLISH ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING
FRI. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH
THIS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACTUALLY CLOSES IT OFF. THIS SEEMS TOO
ROBUST AND DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT OF ENSEMBLES SO WE FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS A LOW POP FOR FRI ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOOKING
AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENCES ON THE
AMPLITUDE AND ORIENTATION OF NEXT TROF MOVING INTO THE GT
LAKES...BUT IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
MODELS ALL INDICATE A BAND OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
INTERIOR MON NIGHT ASSOCD WITH A WEAK FRONT. SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN THE INTERIOR...BUT DRY WEATHER AS SFC
RIDGING NOSES DOWN FROM THE NE. MOST SUNSHINE TUE WILL BE NEAR THE
COAST WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR. MILD TEMPS ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMALS...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TUE GIVEN LIGHT BL WINDS.
WED INTO THU...
SFC RIDGING EARLY WED WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE SOMETIME THU. LOOKS MAINLY DRY
WED AS FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST...THEN
INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THU FROM WEST AND SOUTH
AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK TRIPLE
POINT LOW TO THE S. MAY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THU
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MILD TEMPS ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS CONTINUE.
FRI INTO SAT...
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
AMPLITUDE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT WE LEANED TOWARD CONSENSUS OF
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR FRI/SAT. STILL MILD FRI THEN TEMPS TRENDING
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE SAT AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH TROF MOVING INTO
THE GT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR BUT WATCHING AREA OF MVFR CIGS
HEADING SW FROM MAINE...WHICH SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN NH AND AT
LEAST CAPE ANN LATER THIS MORNING. SEEING SOME EROSION ON ITS
SOUTHERN EDGE SO MVFR CIGS MAY STAY N OF BOS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. PER COORD WITH ZBW MAY AMD
FOR MVFR CIGS /025/ ARRIVING AT BOS AROUND 1430Z. SEEING SOME
EROSION ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD BANK...SO IT IS POSSIBLE LOWER
CIGS ONLY GET AS FAR S AS CAPE ANN THIS MORNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS...BUT PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE IN CT VALLEY.
WED INTO THU...PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS WITH LOW PROB
IFR...POSSIBLY IMPROVING DURING THU. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY INTO
MONDAY...KEEPING WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT. ALREADY ROUGH SEAS WILL
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS TO BE LESS THAN 5 FT ACROSS ALL OF THE NEARSHORE NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THOSE TIMES.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRES REMAINS OVER THE AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WED INTO THU...WINDS BECOMING S BY LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT THEN
SHIFTING TO WEST THU. SPEEDS BELOW SCA. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER
VSBY WED NIGHT INTO THU AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ003-004-026.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KJC
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...BELK/KJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
957 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
755 PM CDT
MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF
IT IS STILL ON TRACK. A FEW SITES SUCH AS WAUKEGAN COOLED A BIT
MORE THAN FORECAST...HOWEVER THINKING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AS CLOUD COVER SPREADS OVER THE REGION. SPEAKING OF CLOUD
COVER...IR IMAGERY INDICATES PRIMARILY CLEAR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
OVER THE CWA AS THE CLOUDS OVER IOWA ARE ERODING SLIGHTLY AS THEY
APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF CLOUD
COVER A BIT BUT STILL EXPECTING THE THICKER CLOUD COVER TO MOVE IN
LATE THIS EVENING. LASTLY...ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER FIT TIMING OF
ADVANCING SHOWERS OVER IOWA AND RECENT HRRR TRENDS. USED THE HRRR
BECAUSE IT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP THE PAST FEW HOURS.
JEE
//PREV DISCUSSION...
302 PM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS ON THIS COLUMBUS DAY ARE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES ALONG WITH TIMING ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES AS
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN ENSUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS CONTRACTING NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A CRISP
MORNING WITH NUMEROUS VOLUNTEER OBSERVERS IN OUTLYING AREAS
REPORTING FROST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST ENTIRELY
DIMINISHED AS CONVERGENCE HAS WEAKENED AND THE DRY OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE HAS WON OUT. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW ON WATER VAPOR
IS BECOMING NEUTRALLY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
IT...AND IS THE WEATHER MAKER FOR TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THIS EVE AND LIKELY HOLD
STEADY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND REORIENTS AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA. BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE
IN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP AT A DECENT RATE AND THEN HOLD
STEADY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW DEEPENS AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THIS DEEPENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS INTO
THE REGION. FAIRLY GOOD SETUP FOR SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS
FROM IA INTO MO DEVELOPING EASTWARD...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS
REACHING THE WESTERN CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT...AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT...MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THIS
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. THE CHANNELED VORTICITY ALONG THIS AXIS SEEMS TO WEAKEN
BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...SO SHOWER COVERAGE MAY TRY
TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT TREND...BUT STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO WARRANT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. AS MENTIONED IN
PREV DISCUSSION...DYNAMICS ALONG WITH FORECAST SLIGHT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION TODAY TO OUR WEST AND INCHED UP THUNDER WORDING
A BIT OVER OUR AREA FOR THAT.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING TUE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
AHEAD OF THIS...CONVERGENCE AND NARROW INSTABILITY TONGUE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD PREVAIL BEHIND THE MORNING ACTIVITY...SO INSTABILITY RETURN
LOOKS MARGINAL. WITH THAT...DCAPE LOOKS MARGINAL AS WELL...SO
WHILE THE WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE APPRECIABLE...ANY GUSTIER STORMS
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
SOLUTIONS MAKE SENSE WITH THE SYSTEM DRY SLOT EVOLVING IN QUICKLY
TUE EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY TUE NIGHT IN MOST PLACES. COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO WRAP AROUND THE CYCLONE AND
COME IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY FORECAST
TEMPERATURE TREND APPROPRIATELY FOR THIS.
WEDNESDAY...THE HEART OF THE UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY/DEEPER CLOUD
DEPTHS LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH ON WED SO ONLY CONTINUE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE LOOKING TO BE
JUST NORTH IN WI. COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS/STRATOCU SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. WITH THAT AND
A COOLING COLUMN...MID TO UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR HIGHS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...A SUBSTANTIAL LONG WAVE TROUGH IS STILL VERY
MUCH ON TRACK TO CARVE ITSELF OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA...WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAKES IT
CHALLENGING FOR TEMPERATURES...NAMELY MIN TEMPS...AS CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A ROLE. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MAX TEMPS LOOK
TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEADING INTO AND DURING NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS
CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR LOWS AT FREEZING IF THE SKY CLEARS AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PREVAILS...WHICH IT LIKELY WILL AT SOME
POINT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH EVOLVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* RAIN DEVELOPING MID MORNING TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
IFR POSSIBLE. LOW PROBABILITY OF TSRA AS WELL.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
ACROSS WISCONSIN BY LATE TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE REGION AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SOUTH OF THE LOW
TRACK...WITH RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE GREATEST RAIN
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO FAVOR KRFD FROM AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. A CONSIDERABLE AREA
OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE MOIST AXIS
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THIS SUGGESTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS HERE
TUESDAY ONCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE OF HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL GO...
THOUGH IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST LOW END MVFR
AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID DAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS SHOULD ALLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
DURING THE EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED TSRA
WITHIN THE RA/SHRA...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW FOR
POINT FORECASTS.
LIGHT EAST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT
DEVELOPING FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN LOOK
TO TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...AND SHRA/RA TUESDAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY. EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT OR 20-25KT RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE IF
WINDS TURN EAST OR EVEN NORTHEAST ON THE FAR NORTH END OF THE LAKE
AND SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK. AS THE LOW DEPARTS
ON WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS LOOK
REASONABLE AND THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF AT LEAST GUSTS TO
LOW END GALES THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN/T TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY GALES WITH THIS FORECAST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION FRIDAY WITH COLDER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15-25KTS AT TIMES. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740...1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
803 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
755 PM CDT
MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF
IT IS STILL ON TRACK. A FEW SITES SUCH AS WAUKEGAN COOLED A BIT
MORE THAN FORECAST...HOWEVER THINKING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AS CLOUD COVER SPREADS OVER THE REGION. SPEAKING OF CLOUD
COVER...IR IMAGERY INDICATES PRIMARILY CLEAR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
OVER THE CWA AS THE CLOUDS OVER IOWA ARE ERODING SLIGHTLY AS THEY
APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF CLOUD
COVER A BIT BUT STILL EXPECTING THE THICKER CLOUD COVER TO MOVE IN
LATE THIS EVENING. LASTLY...ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER FIT TIMING OF
ADVANCING SHOWERS OVER IOWA AND RECENT HRRR TRENDS. USED THE HRRR
BECAUSE IT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP THE PAST FEW HOURS.
JEE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
302 PM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS ON THIS COLUMBUS DAY ARE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES ALONG WITH TIMING ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES AS
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN ENSUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS CONTRACTING NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A CRISP
MORNING WITH NUMEROUS VOLUNTEER OBSERVERS IN OUTLYING AREAS
REPORTING FROST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST ENTIRELY
DIMINISHED AS CONVERGENCE HAS WEAKENED AND THE DRY OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE HAS WON OUT. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW ON WATER VAPOR
IS BECOMING NEUTRALLY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
IT...AND IS THE WEATHER MAKER FOR TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THIS EVE AND LIKELY HOLD
STEADY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND REORIENTS AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA. BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE
IN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP AT A DECENT RATE AND THEN HOLD
STEADY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW DEEPENS AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THIS DEEPENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS INTO
THE REGION. FAIRLY GOOD SETUP FOR SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS
FROM IA INTO MO DEVELOPING EASTWARD...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS
REACHING THE WESTERN CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT...AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT...MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THIS
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. THE CHANNELED VORTICITY ALONG THIS AXIS SEEMS TO WEAKEN
BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...SO SHOWER COVERAGE MAY TRY
TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT TREND...BUT STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO WARRANT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. AS MENTIONED IN
PREV DISCUSSION...DYNAMICS ALONG WITH FORECAST SLIGHT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION TODAY TO OUR WEST AND INCHED UP THUNDER WORDING
A BIT OVER OUR AREA FOR THAT.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING TUE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
AHEAD OF THIS...CONVERGENCE AND NARROW INSTABILITY TONGUE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD PREVAIL BEHIND THE MORNING ACTIVITY...SO INSTABILITY RETURN
LOOKS MARGINAL. WITH THAT...DCAPE LOOKS MARGINAL AS WELL...SO
WHILE THE WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE APPRECIABLE...ANY GUSTIER STORMS
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
SOLUTIONS MAKE SENSE WITH THE SYSTEM DRY SLOT EVOLVING IN QUICKLY
TUE EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY TUE NIGHT IN MOST PLACES. COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO WRAP AROUND THE CYCLONE AND
COME IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY FORECAST
TEMPERATURE TREND APPROPRIATELY FOR THIS.
WEDNESDAY...THE HEART OF THE UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY/DEEPER CLOUD
DEPTHS LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH ON WED SO ONLY CONTINUE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE LOOKING TO BE
JUST NORTH IN WI. COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS/STRATOCU SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. WITH THAT AND
A COOLING COLUMN...MID TO UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR HIGHS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...A SUBSTANTIAL LONG WAVE TROUGH IS STILL VERY
MUCH ON TRACK TO CARVE ITSELF OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA...WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAKES IT
CHALLENGING FOR TEMPERATURES...NAMELY MIN TEMPS...AS CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A ROLE. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MAX TEMPS LOOK
TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEADING INTO AND DURING NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS
CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR LOWS AT FREEZING IF THE SKY CLEARS AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PREVAILS...WHICH IT LIKELY WILL AT SOME
POINT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH EVOLVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* RAIN DEVELOPING MID MORNING TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
IFR POSSIBLE. LOW PROBABILITY OF TSRA AS WELL.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
ACROSS WISCONSIN BY LATE TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE REGION AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SOUTH OF THE LOW
TRACK...WITH RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE GREATEST RAIN
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO FAVOR KRFD FROM AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS. A CONSIDERABLE AREA
OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE MOIST AXIS
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THIS SUGGESTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS HERE
TUESDAY ONCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE OF HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL GO...
THOUGH IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST LOW END MVFR
AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID DAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS SHOULD ALLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR
DURING THE EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED TSRA
WITHIN THE RA/SHRA...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW FOR
POINT FORECASTS.
LIGHT EAST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT
DEVELOPING FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN LOOK
TO TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...AND SHRA/RA TUESDAY.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY. EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT OR 20-25KT RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE IF
WINDS TURN EAST OR EVEN NORTHEAST ON THE FAR NORTH END OF THE LAKE
AND SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK. AS THE LOW DEPARTS
ON WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS LOOK
REASONABLE AND THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF AT LEAST GUSTS TO
LOW END GALES THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN/T TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY GALES WITH THIS FORECAST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION FRIDAY WITH COLDER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15-25KTS AT TIMES. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740...1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
259 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CDT
EVENING UPDATE...
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA
CLEARED EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERING IN FROM WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS ALLOWED WEST WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY...TO CALM IN
SPOTS. THE CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP...WHICH HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
TYPICALLY COOL SPOTS KRPJ AND KARR TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
GOING FORECAST LOWS WERE ALREADY BELOW MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT
DID TWEAK DOWN SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS A FEW MORE DEGREES TO OR
BELOW THE 18Z MAV. NORMAL COLD SPOTS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER VALLEY
CAN EXPECT UPPER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PRIMARILY LOW TO MID
40S EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT FOR AROUND 50 IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW NIGHT...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP WILL BE EVEN BETTER THAN
TONIGHT. CONCERNED THAT SOME AREAS COULD DIP TO THE MID 30S AND
POTENTIALLY SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
253 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG IT. DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW
BRINGING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TUESDAY AND LINGERING SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM GREEN BAY TO AURORA TO
CHAMPAIGN AND IT WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THIS EVENING. STILL ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BEHIND
IT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MAX CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG. THE BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO WI. THAT BEING SAID A BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTN. HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES. TEMPS WILL FALL
UNDER THE SHOWERS...BUT PLACES OUT WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A BIT
AS THE SUN BREAKS OUT AGAIN.
LOWERED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AND CLEAR SKIES. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE MIN
DEWPOINT...BUT WONDERING IF SOME ISOLATED AREAS WILL DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TOMORROW WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND CONTINUES EAST REACHING
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS PLEASANT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLER BY THE LAKE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW. IT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BLOCKING LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
SLOWLY MOVING LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL THE GFS
AND NAM ARE MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW...AND WILL
BASE THE FORECAST OFF OF THE SLOWER ECMWF PER THE WPC GUIDANCE
EVALUATION.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BUT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...AND THE LOW REMAINS NEGATIVELY STACKED
WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW ALSO HAS JET
SUPPORT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY WHILE THE LOW
IS IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION. THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS WEAK TUESDAY SO KEPT
JUST A CHANCE OF TS GOING...WITH AFTN CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 500
J/KG OR LESS. MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...WITH PWATS OF
1-1.5 INCHES.
THE LOWS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A FEW DRY HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE.
FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING A BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. THEN BACK TO REALITY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
EXTENDED...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND WHERE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A COOLING TREND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE JET REMAINS
OVERHEAD KEEPING THE MUCH COOLER AIR TO OUR NORTH. IN GENERAL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN FOR LATE THIS WEEK...AND NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOOKING COLD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING PERSISTENTLY NORTHWEST
BY DAYBREAK THEN NORTHEAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT 06Z AND DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE FROM SATURDAYS RAIN COMBINED
WITH SPORADIC DECOUPLING OF WINDS MAY RESULT IN DURATIONS OF
SPOTTY 3-5 SM VSBYS IN OUTLYING AREAS HOWEVER ORD/MDW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 6+ SM. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY WITH MODEST NW SURFACE WINDS TURNING
NORTH THEN NE AND AIDED BY A LAKE BREEZE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIR SKIES CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS BUT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFICS.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
259 AM CDT
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASING WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REACHES
WISCONSIN BY EVENING AND PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. A RETURN SOUTHEAST FLOW THEN SETS UP BEHIND
THE HIGH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS ONTARIO AND TO WESTERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
SECONDARY LOW THEN DEVELOPS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1248 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CDT
EVENING UPDATE...
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA
CLEARED EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERING IN FROM WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS ALLOWED WEST WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY...TO CALM IN
SPOTS. THE CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP...WHICH HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
TYPICALLY COOL SPOTS KRPJ AND KARR TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
GOING FORECAST LOWS WERE ALREADY BELOW MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT
DID TWEAK DOWN SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS A FEW MORE DEGREES TO OR
BELOW THE 18Z MAV. NORMAL COLD SPOTS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER VALLEY
CAN EXPECT UPPER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PRIMARILY LOW TO MID
40S EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT FOR AROUND 50 IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW NIGHT...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP WILL BE EVEN BETTER THAN
TONIGHT. CONCERNED THAT SOME AREAS COULD DIP TO THE MID 30S AND
POTENTIALLY SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
253 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG IT. DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW
BRINGING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TUESDAY AND LINGERING SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM GREEN BAY TO AURORA TO
CHAMPAIGN AND IT WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THIS EVENING. STILL ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BEHIND
IT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MAX CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG. THE BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO WI. THAT BEING SAID A BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTN. HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES. TEMPS WILL FALL
UNDER THE SHOWERS...BUT PLACES OUT WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A BIT
AS THE SUN BREAKS OUT AGAIN.
LOWERED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AND CLEAR SKIES. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE MIN
DEWPOINT...BUT WONDERING IF SOME ISOLATED AREAS WILL DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TOMORROW WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND CONTINUES EAST REACHING
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS PLEASANT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLER BY THE LAKE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW. IT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BLOCKING LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
SLOWLY MOVING LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL THE GFS
AND NAM ARE MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW...AND WILL
BASE THE FORECAST OFF OF THE SLOWER ECMWF PER THE WPC GUIDANCE
EVALUATION.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BUT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...AND THE LOW REMAINS NEGATIVELY STACKED
WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW ALSO HAS JET
SUPPORT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY WHILE THE LOW
IS IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION. THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS WEAK TUESDAY SO KEPT
JUST A CHANCE OF TS GOING...WITH AFTN CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 500
J/KG OR LESS. MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...WITH PWATS OF
1-1.5 INCHES.
THE LOWS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A FEW DRY HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE.
FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING A BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. THEN BACK TO REALITY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
EXTENDED...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND WHERE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A COOLING TREND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE JET REMAINS
OVERHEAD KEEPING THE MUCH COOLER AIR TO OUR NORTH. IN GENERAL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN FOR LATE THIS WEEK...AND NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOOKING COLD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING PERSISTENTLY NORTHWEST
BY DAYBREAK THEN NORTHEAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT 06Z AND DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE FROM SATURDAYS RAIN COMBINED
WITH SPORADIC DECOUPLING OF WINDS MAY RESULT IN DURATIONS OF
SPOTTY 3-5 SM VSBYS IN OUTLYING AREAS HOWEVER ORD/MDW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 6+ SM. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY WITH MODEST NW SURFACE WINDS TURNING
NORTH THEN NE AND AIDED BY A LAKE BREEZE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIR SKIES CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS BUT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFICS.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
300 PM CDT
A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE INCHES IN EASTERN
MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA. NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST....REACHING
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL VEER TO OUT
OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN ON ACROSS ONTARIO TO WESTERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
234 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
BEHIND A WEAK COLD AS HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES TODAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF DPVA ZONE WITH
THIS VORT MAX AND PROXIMITY TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF WESTERN
GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
NARROW ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHEARING NATURE TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHORT WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SHOULD LEAD TO
EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALONG
WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PWATS DIMINISHING INTO THE 1.25 RANGE AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND STRONGEST MID/UPPER
FORCING SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE...AND THIS TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED THIS
EVENING. HAVE MADE NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO
DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND WANING
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. 18Z RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AXIS OF 250-500
J/KG MUCAPES TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOUTHERN TAIL OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLD TSRA ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. DID MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE -RW POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE
OF LINGERING WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS POSSIBLY SUSTAINING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA HIGH AND DRY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
ROUNDS THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND TAKES AIM ON THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON TIMING/SPEED OF EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH
12Z GEM SLOWER VS 12Z GFS. ECMWF IS FLIP-FLOPPING SOLUTIONS WITH NEW
12Z RUN VERY SIMILAR IN SPEED/LOCATION TO 12Z GFS. CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH IN SLOWING DOWN ARRIVAL ON TUESDAY TO BACK OFF POPS IN THE
EAST...BUT TO INCREASE TO LOW END LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE MOST FAVORED PERIOD. BEYOND THIS...TIMING
ISSUES ALREADY NOTED WITH TROUGH WARRANTS HOLDING ONTO SLGT CHC/CHC
POPS WEDS/WEDS WITH HIGHEST EAST WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER
LONGER.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS AGREEING TO SOME
EXTENT ON 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0 C. AS A RESULT...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL SETTLE IN AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURS INTO FRI AS
WEAK WAVES ROTATE THROUGH TO CONTRIBUTE MSTR...LIFT AND SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE INVERSION HGTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1201 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY...HELPING TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1206 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
MUCH DRIER AIR FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD AS HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF DPVA ZONE WITH
THIS VORT MAX AND PROXIMITY TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF WESTERN
GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
NARROW ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHEARING NATURE TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHORT WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SHOULD LEAD TO
EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALONG
WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PWATS DIMINISHING INTO THE 1.25 RANGE AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND STRONGEST MID/UPPER
FORCING SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE...AND THIS TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED THIS
EVENING. HAVE MADE NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO
DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND WANING
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. 18Z RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AXIS OF 250-500
J/KG MUCAPES TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOUTHERN TAIL OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLD TSRA ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. DID MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE -RW POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE
OF LINGERING WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS POSSIBLY SUSTAINING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA HIGH AND DRY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
ROUNDS THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND TAKES AIM ON THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON TIMING/SPEED OF EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH
12Z GEM SLOWER VS 12Z GFS. ECMWF IS FLIP-FLOPPING SOLUTIONS WITH NEW
12Z RUN VERY SIMILAR IN SPEED/LOCATION TO 12Z GFS. CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH IN SLOWING DOWN ARRIVAL ON TUESDAY TO BACK OFF POPS IN THE
EAST...BUT TO INCREASE TO LOW END LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE MOST FAVORED PERIOD. BEYOND THIS...TIMING
ISSUES ALREADY NOTED WITH TROUGH WARRANTS HOLDING ONTO SLGT CHC/CHC
POPS WEDS/WEDS WITH HIGHEST EAST WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER
LONGER.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS AGREEING TO SOME
EXTENT ON 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0 C. AS A RESULT...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL SETTLE IN AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURS INTO FRI AS
WEAK WAVES ROTATE THROUGH TO CONTRIBUTE MSTR...LIFT AND SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE INVERSION HGTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1201 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY...HELPING TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
635 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: MOST OF THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD AND LINE OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF KHYS. WITH WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. BUT EXPECT
RENEWED CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CONVECTION OVER NW KS MOVES SLOWLY E-SE AS THE LATE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES.
LATEST RAP OUTPUT SHOWS SFC BASED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE
LACKING...ONLY AROUND 1800 J/KG FOR AREAS JUST ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE
MAIN DRY LINE/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT.
BUT BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO MAKE UP FOR THIS...WITH IMPRESSIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 50-70KTS. SO COULD SEE A LOW TOPPED LINE CONVECTION
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY MAKE UP FOR LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES
FOR AT LEAST A SMALL SEVERE EVENT IN CENTRAL KS WITH STRONG STORMS MORE
LIKELY. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT (GIVEN BY
SPC) THIS FAR SOUTH...AS NOT A CLASSIC COLD CORE SETUP...GIVEN
VERTICAL STRETCHING WILL BE LIMITED...UNLESS CLOUDS CAN THIN ENOUGH
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KS. SO THINK A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR ANY KIND
OF TORNADO/FUNNEL...PROBABLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NRN KS.
MORE OF A LOW TOPPED LINE WITH QUARTER HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO MAKE PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT...WITH
A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA.
ALSO THINK THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE WEST
OF I-135 GIVEN THE TIMING.
TUE-THU: EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY ON TUE...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUE-THU WILL BE THE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. THIS COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS FOR WED MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
WILL SEE ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED INTO WED EVE. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION....SO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS IT COMES ACROSS.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME VERY LOW POPS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS...BUT GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A SPRINKLE
CHANCE FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN KS GIVEN THE DRY LOW LAYERS.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS KS FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRI. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF TRIES TO BRING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS KS BY
FRI...AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE
BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY CONFINED TO EXTREME SRN KS OR OK. COULD
SEE SOME 850-700H MOISTURE RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY FOR A
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
KS. SO FOR CONSENSUS SAKE...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THIS CHANCE.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR WEEKEND AS SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WARMER TEMPS SHUNTED FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY THE TIMING OF THE IFR
CEILINGS AND WIND SHIFTS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ARE A CONCERN. TRIED TO
SHOW A PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE TAF SITES WITH THE
ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR KRSL. THERE VERY WELL COULD BE SOME
DELAY IN CURRENT TIMING...THUS EXPECT UPDATES TO BE MADE. CEILINGS
HAVE STAYED AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE IFR CATEGORY FOR
ALL BUT KCNU. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS 3Z FOR KRSL...WHILE KCNU COULD DROP TO
IFR WITH EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY.
AS THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THEIR SPEED. HOWEVER...GUSTY
WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT SITES FURTHER UPSTREAM AND ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THUS GUSTY WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE NEXT
FORECAST ISSUANCE SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED SPEEDS AROUND OR JUST
AFTER THE FOLLOWING 0Z FOR ALL TAF SITES AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA.
JUANITA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 47 62 39 61 / 60 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 45 60 38 61 / 70 10 10 10
NEWTON 46 60 37 59 / 60 10 10 10
ELDORADO 48 62 39 60 / 60 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 49 64 41 61 / 60 10 10 10
RUSSELL 40 58 34 58 / 90 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 40 59 33 59 / 80 0 0 10
SALINA 44 60 36 61 / 90 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 45 60 36 60 / 80 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 52 64 43 60 / 80 20 10 20
CHANUTE 51 63 42 60 / 70 10 10 10
IOLA 50 63 42 59 / 70 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 52 64 42 60 / 80 20 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
152 PM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY. MAY SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH BUT
CONFIDENCE IN 45 TO 50 MPH GUSTS HAS DIMINISHED DESPITE FAVORABLE
WINDS ALOFT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY EITHER SIDE OF THE
CO/KS BORDER EXCEPT DUNDY AND GREELEY.
WIND FORECAST THIS MORNING LOOKING SIMILAR TO WHAT I HAD SEEN
YESTERDAY. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM FROM THE NAM ALSO SIMILAR.
LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LAMP AND 12Z RUC ALSO SHOWING
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
TWEAKED REMAINING GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS NOW DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. SURFACE RIDGING HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW MADE IT DOWN TO TEXAS.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO LOW ON THE WINDS AND TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE JET AXIS BEHIND THE INCOMING TROUGH. THE
GFS WAS THE CLOSEST FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET. OTHERWISE THE MODELS WERE
FINE OVER/NEAR OUR AREA. AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF
WERE A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. MODELS TENDED TO HAVE THE SURFACE
RIDGE TOO FAR EAST BY 06Z. THE NAM12 AND THE CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. MODELS MAY HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS NOW OVER TEXAS TOO
FAR NORTH. THE GFS...CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST
ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD ALTHOUGH OUTPUT WAS NOT TOO FAR OFF.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST INITIALLY. MODELS
LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT KICKS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST PLUS IT IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE GEFS TENDED TO
SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. STILL CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
OUTCOME OF FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST THING WILL BE THE WINDS. GRADIENT DOES
INCREASE PLUS 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE AS WELL. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT PLUS
SOUTH WIND IS JUST STARTING WITH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN. AS
SEEN BY THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT
ARE NOT VERY HIGH. SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NEW GUIDANCE WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT
MAXES AND DID NOT CHANGE THEM MUCH.
FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF BEST DYNAMICS...MOISTURE AND LIFT UNTIL LATE IN
THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO 12Z. ALSO ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE CAPPED UNTIL THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FINE BUT NOT INCREDIBLY
STRONG. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST 3 NIGHTS...AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. MORE THAN ONE MODEL INDICATES RATHER DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME
THE MAJOR LIFT ARRIVES. AS YESTERDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE EAST. SO PER REASONING ABOVE...AM
DELAYING THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS...MORE SO DURING THE EVENING...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 06Z. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MODELS AND
EVEN THE WPC QPF FORECAST HAVE BACKED OFF DURING THE NIGHT FROM WHAT
WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO THE TIME OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
ARRIVING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AM NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. IT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE PARAMETERS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
ALSO PER DAY SHIFT REASONING ON VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...KEPT THE
PATCHY FOG GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE PREVIOUS PERIOD AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. POPS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER EARLY MONDAY
THAN THEY ARE SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY 18Z AS A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING. FRONT THEN
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
EASTERN HALF STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FROM DESTABILIZATION WITH A VERY
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT THE DAY SHIFTS TREND OF
HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MONDAY DURING THE
DAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO EARLY CLOUD COVER...THEN
POSSIBLE CLEARING FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. STAYED
NEAR TO WHAT WAS THERE WITH THE WEST AND NORTH THE COOLEST.
FRONT AND ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY, MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT THAT
IS STILL HERE WILL ALSO BE IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE. SO AM EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO END BY MID EVENING. GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISE BECOME RATHER TIGHT/HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OCCUR. ALSO DECENT MIXING OCCURS ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS WIND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WHAT IS PROBABLY THE COLDEST 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WINDS THEN BECOME
LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE IF THIS ALL PANS OUT.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THAN THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. THE
DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE THAT THE ECMWF PRODUCES A MEAN TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE
HUDSON BAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE GFS CARVES OUT A
DEEPER AND BROADER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE LOWER 48
ALONG WITH A SECONDARY CUT OFF LOW CENTER THAT DIVES WELL INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS PLACES THE INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS PLACES THE ENTIRE PATTERN
FURTHER SOUTH WITH SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD. TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION
OVER THE ECMWF SINCE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE PRODUCING A PATTERN THAT
AVERAGES OUT INDIVIDUAL FEATURES TOO MUCH...BUT TO REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...HAVE BLENDED THE
SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE A MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POP THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO NOT MADE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW SINCE OVERNIGHT
LOWS JUST BARELY APPROACH FREEZING. IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...THEN THE FURTHER SOUTH PATTERN WILL PUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAT WOULD FAVOR SNOW...BUT IT WOULD BE
DRY...SO STILL NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH 01Z BEFORE
CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR FROM 02Z-08Z THEN IFR/LIFR FROM 09Z-15Z.
CIGS/VIS SLOWLY IMPROVE AT KGLD BY 15Z WITH MVFR CIGS THEN QUICKLY
VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KMCK MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY
17Z. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. DRIZZLE AND FOG EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT KGLD WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 30-35KTS TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KTS. AT KMCK SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 30-35KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-25KTS EARLY
TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT 13-15KT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THEN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1120 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY EITHER SIDE OF THE
CO/KS BORDER EXCEPT DUNDY AND GREELEY.
WIND FORECAST THIS MORNING LOOKING SIMILAR TO WHAT I HAD SEEN
YESTERDAY. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM FROM THE NAM ALSO SIMILAR.
LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LAMP AND 12Z RUC ALSO SHOWING
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
TWEAKED REMAINING GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS NOW DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. SURFACE RIDGING HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW MADE IT DOWN TO TEXAS.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO LOW ON THE WINDS AND TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE JET AXIS BEHIND THE INCOMING TROUGH. THE
GFS WAS THE CLOSEST FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET. OTHERWISE THE MODELS WERE
FINE OVER/NEAR OUR AREA. AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF
WERE A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. MODELS TENDED TO HAVE THE SURFACE
RIDGE TOO FAR EAST BY 06Z. THE NAM12 AND THE CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. MODELS MAY HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS NOW OVER TEXAS TOO
FAR NORTH. THE GFS...CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST
ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD ALTHOUGH OUTPUT WAS NOT TOO FAR OFF.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST INITIALLY. MODELS
LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT KICKS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST PLUS IT IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE GEFS TENDED TO
SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. STILL CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
OUTCOME OF FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST THING WILL BE THE WINDS. GRADIENT DOES
INCREASE PLUS 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE AS WELL. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT PLUS
SOUTH WIND IS JUST STARTING WITH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN. AS
SEEN BY THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT
ARE NOT VERY HIGH. SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NEW GUIDANCE WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT
MAXES AND DID NOT CHANGE THEM MUCH.
FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF BEST DYNAMICS...MOISTURE AND LIFT UNTIL LATE IN
THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO 12Z. ALSO ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE CAPPED UNTIL THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FINE BUT NOT INCREDIBLY
STRONG. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST 3 NIGHTS...AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. MORE THAN ONE MODEL INDICATES RATHER DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME
THE MAJOR LIFT ARRIVES. AS YESTERDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE EAST. SO PER REASONING ABOVE...AM
DELAYING THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS...MORE SO DURING THE EVENING...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 06Z. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MODELS AND
EVEN THE WPC QPF FORECAST HAVE BACKED OFF DURING THE NIGHT FROM WHAT
WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO THE TIME OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
ARRIVING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AM NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. IT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE PARAMETERS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
ALSO PER DAY SHIFT REASONING ON VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...KEPT THE
PATCHY FOG GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE PREVIOUS PERIOD AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. POPS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER EARLY MONDAY
THAN THEY ARE SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY 18Z AS A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING. FRONT THEN
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
EASTERN HALF STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FROM DESTABILIZATION WITH A VERY
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT THE DAY SHIFTS TREND OF
HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MONDAY DURING THE
DAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO EARLY CLOUD COVER...THEN
POSSIBLE CLEARING FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. STAYED
NEAR TO WHAT WAS THERE WITH THE WEST AND NORTH THE COOLEST.
FRONT AND ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY, MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT THAT
IS STILL HERE WILL ALSO BE IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE. SO AM EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO END BY MID EVENING. GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISE BECOME RATHER TIGHT/HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OCCUR. ALSO DECENT MIXING OCCURS ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS WIND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WHAT IS PROBABLY THE COLDEST 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WINDS THEN BECOME
LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE IF THIS ALL PANS OUT.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THAN THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. THE
DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE THAT THE ECMWF PRODUCES A MEAN TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE
HUDSON BAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE GFS CARVES OUT A
DEEPER AND BROADER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE LOWER 48
ALONG WITH A SECONDARY CUT OFF LOW CENTER THAT DIVES WELL INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS PLACES THE INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS PLACES THE ENTIRE PATTERN
FURTHER SOUTH WITH SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD. TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION
OVER THE ECMWF SINCE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE PRODUCING A PATTERN THAT
AVERAGES OUT INDIVIDUAL FEATURES TOO MUCH...BUT TO REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...HAVE BLENDED THE
SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE A MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POP THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO NOT MADE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW SINCE OVERNIGHT
LOWS JUST BARELY APPROACH FREEZING. IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...THEN THE FURTHER SOUTH PATTERN WILL PUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAT WOULD FAVOR SNOW...BUT IT WOULD BE
DRY...SO STILL NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH 01Z BEFORE
CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR FROM 02Z-08Z THEN IFR/LIFR FROM 09Z-15Z.
CIGS/VIS SLOWLY IMPROVE AT KGLD BY 15Z WITH MVFR CIGS THEN QUICKLY
VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KMCK MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY
17Z. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. DRIZZLE AND FOG EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT KGLD WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 30-35KTS TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KTS. AT KMCK SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 30-35KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-25KTS EARLY
TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT 13-15KT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THEN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
013-027.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
745 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY EITHER SIDE OF THE
CO/KS BORDER EXCEPT DUNDY AND GREELEY.
WIND FORECAST THIS MORNING LOOKING SIMILAR TO WHAT I HAD SEEN
YESTERDAY. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM FROM THE NAM ALSO SIMILAR.
LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LAMP AND 12Z RUC ALSO SHOWING
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
TWEAKED REMAINING GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS NOW DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. SURFACE RIDGING HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW MADE IT DOWN TO TEXAS.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO LOW ON THE WINDS AND TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE JET AXIS BEHIND THE INCOMING TROUGH. THE
GFS WAS THE CLOSEST FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET. OTHERWISE THE MODELS WERE
FINE OVER/NEAR OUR AREA. AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF
WERE A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. MODELS TENDED TO HAVE THE SURFACE
RIDGE TOO FAR EAST BY 06Z. THE NAM12 AND THE CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. MODELS MAY HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS NOW OVER TEXAS TOO
FAR NORTH. THE GFS...CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST
ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD ALTHOUGH OUTPUT WAS NOT TOO FAR OFF.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST INITIALLY. MODELS
LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT KICKS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST PLUS IT IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE GEFS TENDED TO
SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. STILL CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
OUTCOME OF FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST THING WILL BE THE WINDS. GRADIENT DOES
INCREASE PLUS 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE AS WELL. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT PLUS
SOUTH WIND IS JUST STARTING WITH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN. AS
SEEN BY THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT
ARE NOT VERY HIGH. SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NEW GUIDANCE WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT
MAXES AND DID NOT CHANGE THEM MUCH.
FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF BEST DYNAMICS...MOISTURE AND LIFT UNTIL LATE IN
THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO 12Z. ALSO ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE CAPPED UNTIL THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FINE BUT NOT INCREDIBLY
STRONG. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST 3 NIGHTS...AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. MORE THAN ONE MODEL INDICATES RATHER DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME
THE MAJOR LIFT ARRIVES. AS YESTERDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE EAST. SO PER REASONING ABOVE...AM
DELAYING THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS...MORE SO DURING THE EVENING...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 06Z. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MODELS AND
EVEN THE WPC QPF FORECAST HAVE BACKED OFF DURING THE NIGHT FROM WHAT
WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO THE TIME OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
ARRIVING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AM NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. IT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE PARAMETERS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
ALSO PER DAY SHIFT REASONING ON VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...KEPT THE
PATCHY FOG GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE PREVIOUS PERIOD AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. POPS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER EARLY MONDAY
THAN THEY ARE SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY 18Z AS A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING. FRONT THEN
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
EASTERN HALF STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FROM DESTABILIZATION WITH A VERY
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT THE DAY SHIFTS TREND OF
HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MONDAY DURING THE
DAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO EARLY CLOUD COVER...THEN
POSSIBLE CLEARING FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. STAYED
NEAR TO WHAT WAS THERE WITH THE WEST AND NORTH THE COOLEST.
FRONT AND ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY, MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT THAT
IS STILL HERE WILL ALSO BE IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE. SO AM EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO END BY MID EVENING. GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISE BECOME RATHER TIGHT/HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OCCUR. ALSO DECENT MIXING OCCURS ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS WIND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WHAT IS PROBABLY THE COLDEST 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WINDS THEN BECOME
LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE IF THIS ALL PANS OUT.
THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THAN THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. THE
DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE THAT THE ECMWF PRODUCES A MEAN TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE
HUDSON BAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE GFS CARVES OUT A
DEEPER AND BROADER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE LOWER 48
ALONG WITH A SECONDARY CUT OFF LOW CENTER THAT DIVES WELL INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS PLACES THE INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS PLACES THE ENTIRE PATTERN
FURTHER SOUTH WITH SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD. TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION
OVER THE ECMWF SINCE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE PRODUCING A PATTERN THAT
AVERAGES OUT INDIVIDUAL FEATURES TOO MUCH...BUT TO REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...HAVE BLENDED THE
SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE A MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POP THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO NOT MADE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW SINCE OVERNIGHT
LOWS JUST BARELY APPROACH FREEZING. IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...THEN THE FURTHER SOUTH PATTERN WILL PUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAT WOULD FAVOR SNOW...BUT IT WOULD BE
DRY...SO STILL NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL. DURING THE
EVENING...THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS AT KGLD. ALSO BEGINNING AROUND 03Z...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. SINCE THIS WILL BE IN THE LAST QUARTER TO HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD PLUS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING/LOCATION OF
DEVELOPMENT...CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH A VCTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT
/7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027.
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
733 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
CNTRL CANADA TO THE WRN CONUS. WITHIN THE TROF...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER NE MANITOBA...AND A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND WAVE...BKN/OVC STRATOCU IS SPREADING S AND E
ACROSS WRN UPPER MI. WHILE REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME -SHRA OVER FAR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ONTARIO...THERE ARE HINTS OF A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES FARTHER W INTO NE MN. IN FACT...A FEW OBS HAVE
REPORTED PCPN RECENTLY.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW THIS MORNING AND PRESENCE OF SOME SPRINKLES
UPSTREAM YET...OPTED TO INCLUDE SCT SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER SPREADING
ACROSS WRN UPPER MI...DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN
EXPANSION OF STRATOCU THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THIS AFTN
SHOULD THEN LEAD TO CLEARING FROM W TO E. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT COMBINED
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 50-60PCT OF NORMAL WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT TEMP FALL...BUT TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD
OPPORTUNITY TO PLUMMET AT LEAST THRU THE EVENING HRS BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT. AS IN RECENT DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO BE REPRESENTED
BY THE BIAS CORRECTED GEM (OFTEN IT DOES A NICE JOB HANDLING
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS). EXPECT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. IF TEMP TONIGHT/MON MORNING DOES NOT FALL TO
FREEZING OR LOWER HERE AT NWS MQT...THIS YEAR WILL SET THE RECORD
FOR THE LATEST OCCURRENCE IN AUTUMN OF A MIN TEMP AT OR BLO
FREEZING. CURRENT RECORD WAS SET IN 1997.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
PERIOD STARTS 12Z MON WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 2C. SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OUT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY WARM UP...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING UP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE CWA AND PUSH THE SFC HIGH E...WHICH WILL CAP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
AS THE LOW MOVES TO SRN MN BY 12Z TUE...FGEN FORCING AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 600MB WILL MOVE INTO OR NEAR THE FAR WRN
CWA LATE MON EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
INITIALLY...THINK THAT DRY LOW LEVELS...AS INDICATED BY NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY UNTIL LATER MON NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS INCREASING OVER THE WRN CWA MON NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...INCREASING OVERALL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH
INCREASINGLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS.
THE LOW THEN MOVES TO CENTRAL WI BY 00Z WED...THEN TO NRN LOWER MI
/OR POSSIBLY FARTHER NE AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z/12 ECMWF/ BY 12Z
WED...WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING FROM JUST W OF
THE CWA AT 00Z WED TO THE CENTRAL CWA BY 12Z WED AND E OF THE CWA BY
00Z THU. 850MB TEMPS ON THE N SIDE OF THE SFC LOW /AND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/ WILL VARY FROM 3C TO 5 C OVER THE SRN CWA TO AROUND -1
OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS /WHICH ARE THE
MORE TRUSTED MODELS/ HAVE QPF SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY TUE
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT SO WILL BE INCREASING
POPS. WHAT WILL BE A BIT HARDER TO FORECAST IS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW LOW LEVEL FGEN BANDING ORIENTED W-E
OVER UPPER MI...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. OF
COURSE...ESPECIALLY LOW LEVEL...FGEN BAND LOCATION FORECASTING THIS
FAR OUT IS HAPHAZARD AS THAT BAND MAY BE FARTHER N OR S. THE BAND
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
THROUGH LATER TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING 24 HOUR QPF TOTALS TUE
AND TUE NIGHT OF AN INCH OR GREATER IN ANY PLACES THAT SIT UNDER THE
FGEN BAND FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPS FOR TUE LOOK A BIT
COOLER THAN MON WITH THE GREATER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
FOR WED...STILL GOING WITH THE 00Z/13 GFS AND 12Z/12 ECMWF /AND
SOMEWHAT WITH THE 00Z/13 GLOBAL GEM/ WHICH ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE 12Z/12 AND 00Z/12 ECMWF WERE BOTH SHOWING THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH WED INSTEAD OF TUE/TUE NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST RUNS
ALL AGREE IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE. SO...WED SHOULD
SEE PRECIP CLEARING TO THE E AS SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL NOT CHANGE THE
FORECAST COMPLETELY JUST YET...EVEN THOUGH IT HAS 50-60 POPS OVER
MUCH OF UPPER MI WED...SINCE MODELS MAY AGAIN CHANGE AND AM WEARY OF
GOING 100 PERCENT WITH JUST THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THINK THAT A
50/50 BLEND OF NEW MODEL DATA AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL COVER
THINGS ADEQUATELY FOR POPS. TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO TUE WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.
THE FORECAST BEYOND WED IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH EXACT DETAIL...BUT
GAINING CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL GENERAL PATTERN. DO AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT DRIER FORECAST FOR THU LOOKS TO BE IN
ORDER...BUT NOT READY TO GO COMPLETELY DRY JUST YET. PREVIOUS RUNS
OF THE MODELS THAT HAD THE LOW BEING SLOWER MADE FOR A MUCH WETTER
THU...BUT NEWER RUNS SEEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY THU.
WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. THE GENERAL TREND
THROUGH SAT IS THAT A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH INCREASINGLY DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. MODELS EVEN AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS FALLING AS LOW AS -7C BY LATE SAT. SYNOPTIC ENERGY FLOWING
AROUND THE TROUGH MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF PRECIP...WITH LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AS TEMPS GET COOLER...BUT WITH EXACT DETAILS OF WIND
DIRECTION AND TIMING OF ENERGY IT IS HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH
POPS. DO BELIEVE THAT FIRST CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FAR EXTENDED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AS DID THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THE MORE CERTAIN ASPECT OF THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S /AND MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 30S HIGHS/ ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
CYCLONIC FLOW/LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING NE THRU NRN ONTARIO MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS OR SO AT KCMX/KSAW. OTHERWISE...BKN STRATOCU
WITH BASES GENERALLY 3500-4500FT WILL CLEAR OUT FROM W TO E THIS
AFTN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO THE AFTN HRS...MAINLY AT KCMX WHICH
IS MORE EXPOSED TO W/NW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
W TO NW WINDS OF 15-30KT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AS PRES
GRADIENT RELAXES BTWN LOW PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AND HIGH PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LATE TONIGHT THRU AT LEAST MON
MORNING...THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 15KT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM W TO E
LATE MON AFTN THRU TUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
PRES LIFTS FROM THE WRN PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. BY TUE
AFTN...E TO NE WINDS WILL BE INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT
W TO E WED/THU AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
CNTRL CANADA TO THE WRN CONUS. WITHIN THE TROF...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER NE MANITOBA...AND A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND WAVE...BKN/OVC STRATOCU IS SPREADING S AND E
ACROSS WRN UPPER MI. WHILE REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME -SHRA OVER FAR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ONTARIO...THERE ARE HINTS OF A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES FARTHER W INTO NE MN. IN FACT...A FEW OBS HAVE
REPORTED PCPN RECENTLY.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW THIS MORNING AND PRESENCE OF SOME SPRINKLES
UPSTREAM YET...OPTED TO INCLUDE SCT SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER SPREADING
ACROSS WRN UPPER MI...DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN
EXPANSION OF STRATOCU THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THIS AFTN
SHOULD THEN LEAD TO CLEARING FROM W TO E. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT COMBINED
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 50-60PCT OF NORMAL WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT TEMP FALL...BUT TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD
OPPORTUNITY TO PLUMMET AT LEAST THRU THE EVENING HRS BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT. AS IN RECENT DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO BE REPRESENTED
BY THE BIAS CORRECTED GEM (OFTEN IT DOES A NICE JOB HANDLING
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS). EXPECT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. IF TEMP TONIGHT/MON MORNING DOES NOT FALL TO
FREEZING OR LOWER HERE AT NWS MQT...THIS YEAR WILL SET THE RECORD
FOR THE LATEST OCCURRENCE IN AUTUMN OF A MIN TEMP AT OR BLO
FREEZING. CURRENT RECORD WAS SET IN 1997.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
PERIOD STARTS 12Z MON WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 2C. SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OUT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY WARM UP...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING UP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE CWA AND PUSH THE SFC HIGH E...WHICH WILL CAP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
AS THE LOW MOVES TO SRN MN BY 12Z TUE...FGEN FORCING AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 600MB WILL MOVE INTO OR NEAR THE FAR WRN
CWA LATE MON EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
INITIALLY...THINK THAT DRY LOW LEVELS...AS INDICATED BY NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY UNTIL LATER MON NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS INCREASING OVER THE WRN CWA MON NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...INCREASING OVERALL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH
INCREASINGLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS.
THE LOW THEN MOVES TO CENTRAL WI BY 00Z WED...THEN TO NRN LOWER MI
/OR POSSIBLY FARTHER NE AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z/12 ECMWF/ BY 12Z
WED...WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING FROM JUST W OF
THE CWA AT 00Z WED TO THE CENTRAL CWA BY 12Z WED AND E OF THE CWA BY
00Z THU. 850MB TEMPS ON THE N SIDE OF THE SFC LOW /AND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/ WILL VARY FROM 3C TO 5 C OVER THE SRN CWA TO AROUND -1
OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS /WHICH ARE THE
MORE TRUSTED MODELS/ HAVE QPF SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY TUE
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT SO WILL BE INCREASING
POPS. WHAT WILL BE A BIT HARDER TO FORECAST IS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW LOW LEVEL FGEN BANDING ORIENTED W-E
OVER UPPER MI...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. OF
COURSE...ESPECIALLY LOW LEVEL...FGEN BAND LOCATION FORECASTING THIS
FAR OUT IS HAPHAZARD AS THAT BAND MAY BE FARTHER N OR S. THE BAND
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
THROUGH LATER TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING 24 HOUR QPF TOTALS TUE
AND TUE NIGHT OF AN INCH OR GREATER IN ANY PLACES THAT SIT UNDER THE
FGEN BAND FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPS FOR TUE LOOK A BIT
COOLER THAN MON WITH THE GREATER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
FOR WED...STILL GOING WITH THE 00Z/13 GFS AND 12Z/12 ECMWF /AND
SOMEWHAT WITH THE 00Z/13 GLOBAL GEM/ WHICH ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE 12Z/12 AND 00Z/12 ECMWF WERE BOTH SHOWING THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH WED INSTEAD OF TUE/TUE NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST RUNS
ALL AGREE IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE. SO...WED SHOULD
SEE PRECIP CLEARING TO THE E AS SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL NOT CHANGE THE
FORECAST COMPLETELY JUST YET...EVEN THOUGH IT HAS 50-60 POPS OVER
MUCH OF UPPER MI WED...SINCE MODELS MAY AGAIN CHANGE AND AM WEARY OF
GOING 100 PERCENT WITH JUST THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THINK THAT A
50/50 BLEND OF NEW MODEL DATA AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL COVER
THINGS ADEQUATELY FOR POPS. TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO TUE WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.
THE FORECAST BEYOND WED IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH EXACT DETAIL...BUT
GAINING CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL GENERAL PATTERN. DO AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT DRIER FORECAST FOR THU LOOKS TO BE IN
ORDER...BUT NOT READY TO GO COMPLETELY DRY JUST YET. PREVIOUS RUNS
OF THE MODELS THAT HAD THE LOW BEING SLOWER MADE FOR A MUCH WETTER
THU...BUT NEWER RUNS SEEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY THU.
WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. THE GENERAL TREND
THROUGH SAT IS THAT A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH INCREASINGLY DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. MODELS EVEN AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS FALLING AS LOW AS -7C BY LATE SAT. SYNOPTIC ENERGY FLOWING
AROUND THE TROUGH MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF PRECIP...WITH LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AS TEMPS GET COOLER...BUT WITH EXACT DETAILS OF WIND
DIRECTION AND TIMING OF ENERGY IT IS HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH
POPS. DO BELIEVE THAT FIRST CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FAR EXTENDED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AS DID THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THE MORE CERTAIN ASPECT OF THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S /AND MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 30S HIGHS/ ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
CYC...GUSTY UPSLOPE W FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD
FNT IN TANDEM WITH MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL CONSPIRE TO
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO CMX AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO IWD THIS MRNG.
EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. EVEN
THOUGH THIS WIND DOWNSLOPES AT SAW...OPTED TO BRING IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS THERE AS WELL GIVEN THE CYC FLOW/DEEPER MSTR SHOWN ON THE
INL RAOB. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR/MORE ACYC FLOW WL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES BY LATE MRNG. GUSTY WINDS IN THE MRNG WL
DIMINISH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC HI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
W TO NW WINDS OF 15-30KT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AS PRES
GRADIENT RELAXES BTWN LOW PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AND HIGH PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LATE TONIGHT THRU AT LEAST MON
MORNING...THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 15KT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM W TO E
LATE MON AFTN THRU TUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
PRES LIFTS FROM THE WRN PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. BY TUE
AFTN...E TO NE WINDS WILL BE INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT
W TO E WED/THU AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
839 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 839 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
No significant changes needed to going forecast. Band of rain
continues to slowly move east across Missouri at mid evening.
Rainfall amounts have been light as it has struggled with a constant
feed of low level dry air advection from the east. Latest runs of
the HRRR suggests that this band will slowly diminish through
midnight, while the line of storms extending from the Minnesota
into central Kansas will eventually move into the CWA after
midnight. The latest RAP and previous models confirm this idea and
depict the strong low level moisture convergence moving into the
CWA ahead of the mid level trough, so will keep likely/categorical
chances of showers/isolated thunderstorms going late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Only minor tweaking needed to rest of the forecast.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
WAA precipitation is expected to spread across the area tonight from
west to east. Another round of precipitation is expected tomorrow
with the cold frontal passage. Although the air mass is initially
fairly dry this afternoon with dew points in the 40s generally north
of a line from KCOU to KSTL, recent MSAS analyses of surface
equivalent potential temperature show that the E-W portion of the
stalled cold front has been making steady northward progress as a
warm front over the last few hours, bringing higher dew points into
MO/IL. In addition to the ongoing top-down saturation processes at
work, this low level moisture advection should help saturate the
column ahead of the advancing precipitation shield associated with
the NW-SE portion of the warm front. LLJ moisture convergence along
this boundary is forecast to persist through the night as it
progresses eastward. Meager model forecasts of MUCAPE between 00-12z
suggest that most of the precipitation will fall as rain showers
with perhaps a few isolated embedded thunderstorms. Overnight lows
are expected to be much warmer than last night due to ample cloud
cover and steady southeast to south winds.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
Going forecast trends still look quite good for Tuesday and into
Tuesday evening, with 12z runs continuing to support the faster
ewd movement of the system across the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Showers and thunderstorms that work into the region overnight
should be winding down on Tuesday morning over northwest sections
of the CWA as cold front pushes through this area and jet and
associated dry slot surges around the base of the upper low. From
southeast Missouri into southern Illinois showers and scattered
thunderstorms should still be going strong through mid-morning as
isentropic ascent of very moisture-laden airmass and moisture
advection remains focused over this area. While PoPs will
certainly linger over this part of the CWA into the afternoon,
threat/coverage should be less than that of the morning as it
appears lift will not be as strong during this time. It may be
that once the morning precip winds down any additional precip will
be tied to activity along the actual cold front (as suggested by
the 4km WRF), but will leave this additional "fine-tuning" until
specific trends are more clear.
Last vestiges of showers and isolated thunderstorms should exit far
southeast sections of the CWA Tuesday evening with the passage of
the cold front, leaving dry conditions across the region for the
remainder of the night and into Wednesday. However, cold air SC
spiralling around low should drop out of Iowa and spin its way
across at least the northern half of our CWA late Tuesday night and
early Wednesday. This cloudiness should then thin out during the
day as upper system drifts into southern Canada. These clouds, as
well as a light west/northwest surface wind, may keep temps from
falling too much Tuesday night and have gone with lows in the mid to
upper 40s over most of the area. Clouds should also inhibit warmup
during the day on Wednesday in some areas, and it may be that far
northern section of the CWA will struggle to reach 60.
NWP solutions are coming into better agreement with upper level
system for Wednesday night, with all solutions now showing strong
mid- level forcing from eastern Ozarks into the southern half of IL.
Have tweeked going PoPs a bit to include most areas along and
south of a MYJ- PPQ line for late Wednesday night, and have
continued these into Thursday for parts of the FA. I have left
PoPs over our far northern counties (including UIN) in the slight
chance range for now as best forcing appears to occur well south,
however some model qpfs are painting very light QPF as far N as
se IA, so will have to keep an eye on this area.
Medium range solutions continue to paint a broad UA trof over much
of the CONUS for the end of this week and into the weekend, with
several shortwaves dropping through the base of the trof during this
time frame. It`s certainly possible that one of these may bring us
a bit of light precip, but timing/locations of these systems are
varying so much from run to run and model to model don`t have enough
confidence to pin down any given time period. So, main focus in
the Thursday-Monday time frame will be a continuation of below
normal temps, and PoPs remaining below chance category for now.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
Developing sfc low over nrn Plains will have an associated wrmfnt
lift thru the region, followed fairly quickly by a cdfnt. Both of
these fnts will bring precip to terminals tonight and Tues. The
first round shud remain very light, which will make it difficult
to time into terminals due to radar returns that will not reach
the ground. Have timed in precip where best chances are expected.
Winds will veer overnight and thru fropa on Tues with winds
becoming wly behind the fnt along with clouds clearing. Upstream
obs indicate IFR conditions will be poss before passage of the
cdfnt. This scenario is not supported in the latest mdl guidance
and will therefore leave out for now, but may need to add at a
later time.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1256 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THIS WEEKEND, HAS BROUGHT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
CHOSE TO UTILIZE THE LATEST RAP TO CONFIGURE THE CLOUD GRIDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RAP SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
THROUGH EASTERN NY TOWARD RME/SYR, PEAKING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
FORM OF LOW STRATUS. THE RAP TRIES TO QUICKLY PULL THE MOISTURE
BACK EASTWARD OUT OF RME LATE TONIGHT, BUT THIS SEEMS TOO
AGGRESSIVE.
TEMPS/WIND/TD FIELDS LOOK VERY GOOD AND WILL REQUIRE ONLY MINOR
UPDATES.
2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER NEW YORK HAS KEPT US CLEAR
AND MILD. THIS ALSO HAS KEPT THE MOISTURE OVER SRN PA TO OUR
SOUTH. AS THE HIGH FLOPS OVER AND BECOMES ORIENTED NE TO SW...AND
ALSO SLIDES SLOWLY TO COAST. OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH SO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO HEAD
BACK NORTH INTO NE PA AND THE SRN TIER OF NY. IN ADDITION...LOW
CLOUDS MOVG SW FROM NEW ENGLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
IN THE S AND SW. DEW POINTS RISE SLOWLY SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE
MIDWEST NOW MAKES GOOD PROGRESS INTO NY SUNDAY THEN STALLS AND
WEAKENS. WITH THE PUSH SUNDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO THE FAR WEST DURING THE AFTN. THIS NORTH TO SOUTH FRONT
ALSO FLOPS OVER SO THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE STEUBEN
TO SYR SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC
HANGS TOUGH LONG ENOUGH MONDAY TO KEEP THE FRONT AROUND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DIES OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING DYNAMICS
WITH THE FRONT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO UPSTATE NY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COLDER
THAN TODAY AS COLD AIR COMES IN ALOFT. MONDAY AGAIN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. TUESDAY SHOULD REBOUND
BACK TO THE U60S. ALL IN ALL A CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS MONTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH AS
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP CONTINUE THE SPELL OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO WRN NY/PA BY THURSDAY MORNING
PUSHING EWD THURSDAY TO OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL
DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND POSITIONING OF FEATURES. GENERALLY COOLER
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... LWR CLDS (MVFR CIGS) WILL PREVAIL FOR
KAVP/KBGM/KELM/KITH EARLY THIS MRNG (THROUGH 12-15Z)...BEFORE CIG
BASES LIFT A BIT...AND VFR RETURNS THEREAFTER. FOR
KSYR/KRME...MAINLY VFR IS FORESEEN TDY. SE SFC WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST...AT 8-12 KT.
THIS EVE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH SE SFC WINDS
GENERALLY 5-8 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN THE MRNG (MVFR/IFR CIGS...AND -SHRA)...WITH
CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTN.
TUE AND WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS PSBL AT KELM.
THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.AVIATION... MVFR CIGS HAVE NOW SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NW AND
WILL REACH THERE BY LATE AFTN. SHOWERS/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS WAA/ISENT LIFT INCREASES NORTH OF
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FROM NEAR AND WEST OF CHILDRESS
INTO HARMON AND GREER COUNTIES OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH
AND CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE LUBBOCK AND PLAINVIEW AREA.
THE HRRR IS UNAVAILABLE TODAY AGAIN AND THE AVAILABLE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO BE OF LITTLE AID TODAY AS NONE HAVE
CORRECTLY PROJECTED THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE RAP IS THE CLOSEST
BUT IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE UPDATED THE
POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS... BUT HAVE LEFT
THE AFTERNOON POPS ALONE FOR NOW. WILL READDRESS THOSE AFTERNOON
POPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH OVER
THE TOP OF A SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BECOMING
NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME IFR
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT.
30
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL INTO WESTERN TEXAS. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
RESPOND TO NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY LOCATIONS
NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
RAIN. BETTER CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TODAY AND THEN
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS SFC FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL WAA ADVECTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HAVE
CONT TO TREND HIGHER WITH PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
WITH AREAS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR THIS
TO OCCUR.
AS THIS DISTURBANCE LIFTS TOWARD THE THE NORTHEAST LATE
MONDAY... A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH THROUGH
OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
SOUTH WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN/EVENING.
A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED/WED
EVENING AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER AS LOWER LEVELS WILL BE LACKING RICHER
MOISTURE... DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
BEYOND WED THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WRT TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND RAIN POSSIBILITIES.
WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS FRI ACROSS THE WEST AS THERE IS SOME
SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE
WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 62 71 58 / 30 60 90 60
HOBART OK 74 62 74 56 / 50 70 80 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 66 75 61 / 50 70 90 60
GAGE OK 71 60 75 46 / 30 70 70 30
PONCA CITY OK 74 61 70 55 / 20 50 80 60
DURANT OK 79 63 72 66 / 40 60 90 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FROM NEAR AND WEST OF CHILDRESS
INTO HARMON AND GREER COUNTIES OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH
AND CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE LUBBOCK AND PLAINVIEW AREA.
THE HRRR IS UNAVAILABLE TODAY AGAIN AND THE AVAILABLE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO BE OF LITTLE AID TODAY AS NONE HAVE
CORRECTLY PROJECTED THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE RAP IS THE CLOSEST
BUT IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE UPDATED THE
POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS... BUT HAVE LEFT
THE AFTERNOON POPS ALONE FOR NOW. WILL READDRESS THOSE AFTERNOON
POPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH OVER
THE TOP OF A SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BECOMING
NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME IFR
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT.
30
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL INTO WESTERN TEXAS. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
RESPOND TO NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY LOCATIONS
NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
RAIN. BETTER CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TODAY AND THEN
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS SFC FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL WAA ADVECTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HAVE
CONT TO TREND HIGHER WITH PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
WITH AREAS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR THIS
TO OCCUR.
AS THIS DISTURBANCE LIFTS TOWARD THE THE NORTHEAST LATE
MONDAY... A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH THROUGH
OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
SOUTH WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN/EVENING.
A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED/WED
EVENING AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER AS LOWER LEVELS WILL BE LACKING RICHER
MOISTURE... DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
BEYOND WED THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WRT TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND RAIN POSSIBILITIES.
WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS FRI ACROSS THE WEST AS THERE IS SOME
SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE
WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 62 71 58 / 30 60 90 60
HOBART OK 74 62 74 56 / 50 70 80 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 66 75 61 / 50 70 90 60
GAGE OK 71 60 75 46 / 30 70 70 30
PONCA CITY OK 74 61 70 55 / 20 50 80 60
DURANT OK 79 63 72 66 / 40 60 90 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1041 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON
OCT 14 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW PRESSURE
IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ALSO SOME THUNDER
AHEAD OF THE LOW AS WELL OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW MOVES NE
TOWARDS THE REGION...PRECIP TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW...PLENTY OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL INITIALLY KEEP THE COLUMN
FROM SATURATING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PORTRAY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THOUGH ALONG WITH A
STEADY EAST WIND WHICH WILL MAKE THE NIGHT RATHER CHILLY. BY LATE
TONIGHT...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIP. A 40-50KT
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL
BRING IN PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH BY 09Z. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY SOLID
PRECIP BAND ARRIVE BETWEEN 09-12Z OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WITH A BRISK EAST WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS WILL
BE WARMER AND MAINLY IN THE 40S.
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 00Z WED. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL
ALSO MOVE IN THE NE DIRECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL GIVE THE ENTIRE AREA A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING
A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH (OR MORE) OF RAINFALL. THOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UNDER 100 J/KG...DO NOT THINK WE
CAN RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRY SLOT. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. PLENTY OF WIND
ALOFT TO BE BROUGHT DOWN BY ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SO WILL LEAVE A
MENTION IN THE HWO. A DRY SLOT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON ABOVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS DRYING OUT ABOVE 700MB WHERE A DECENT
CAP WILL DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...THINK WILL SEE AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE AT BEST ALONG THE FRONT...THOUGH ANY SHOWERS COULD
STILL BRING A DECENT WIND GUST. HIGHS AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH WESTERN GREAT LAKES
GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SPELL A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ATTENDANT SW-NE ORIENTATED DEFORMATION ZONE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND NORTHERN
PENETRATION OF DRY SLOT AS SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SWATH OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ON NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING
THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 00Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION PUSHING NORTHWARD TO
ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 29 CORRIDOR SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIST MAINLY NORTH OF THIS LINE. WOULD
EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND/OR
SOME DRIZZLE FOR A TIME TUESDAY EVENING. REMANANTS OF ERODING
DEFORMATION ZONE...AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SURFACE REFLECTION STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE IN CONCERT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO KEEP HIGH-END
CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WILL FEEL RATHER FALL-LIKE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LENDING TO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S.
VERY WEAK RIDGING AND SUFFCIENTLY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD BRING A DRY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WILL START OUT RATHER COOL HOWEVER WITH
TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH SOME FROST AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE WANES AS WE GET INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER HUDSON BAY EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE TRYING TO TWEAK TIMING SO PRETTY MUCH LEFT PREVIOUS
FORECAST ALONE. STILL APPEARS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO BANK ON THAT. SOMEWHAT MORE
CONFIDENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH READING CONTINUING TO SLIDE TO
BELOW NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BRING RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO
EAST VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
707 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON
OCT 14 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW PRESSURE
IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ALSO SOME THUNDER
AHEAD OF THE LOW AS WELL OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW MOVES NE
TOWARDS THE REGION...PRECIP TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW...PLENTY OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL INITIALLY KEEP THE COLUMN
FROM SATURATING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PORTRAY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THOUGH ALONG WITH A
STEADY EAST WIND WHICH WILL MAKE THE NIGHT RATHER CHILLY. BY LATE
TONIGHT...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIP. A 40-50KT
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL
BRING IN PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH BY 09Z. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY SOLID
PRECIP BAND ARRIVE BETWEEN 09-12Z OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WITH A BRISK EAST WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS WILL
BE WARMER AND MAINLY IN THE 40S.
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 00Z WED. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL
ALSO MOVE IN THE NE DIRECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL GIVE THE ENTIRE AREA A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING
A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH (OR MORE) OF RAINFALL. THOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UNDER 100 J/KG...DO NOT THINK WE
CAN RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRY SLOT. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. PLENTY OF WIND
ALOFT TO BE BROUGHT DOWN BY ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SO WILL LEAVE A
MENTION IN THE HWO. A DRY SLOT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON ABOVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS DRYING OUT ABOVE 700MB WHERE A DECENT
CAP WILL DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...THINK WILL SEE AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE AT BEST ALONG THE FRONT...THOUGH ANY SHOWERS COULD
STILL BRING A DECENT WIND GUST. HIGHS AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH WESTERN GREAT LAKES
GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SPELL A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ATTENDANT SW-NE ORIENTATED DEFORMATION ZONE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND NORTHERN
PENETRATION OF DRY SLOT AS SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SWATH OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ON NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING
THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 00Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION PUSHING NORTHWARD TO
ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 29 CORRIDOR SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIST MAINLY NORTH OF THIS LINE. WOULD
EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND/OR
SOME DRIZZLE FOR A TIME TUESDAY EVENING. REMANANTS OF ERODING
DEFORMATION ZONE...AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SURFACE REFLECTION STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE IN CONCERT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO KEEP HIGH-END
CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WILL FEEL RATHER FALL-LIKE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LENDING TO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S.
VERY WEAK RIDGING AND SUFFCIENTLY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD BRING A DRY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WILL START OUT RATHER COOL HOWEVER WITH
TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH SOME FROST AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE WANES AS WE GET INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER HUDSON BAY EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE TRYING TO TWEAK TIMING SO PRETTY MUCH LEFT PREVIOUS
FORECAST ALONE. STILL APPEARS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO BANK ON THAT. SOMEWHAT MORE
CONFIDENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH READING CONTINUING TO SLIDE TO
BELOW NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO IFR RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST
AS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......RDM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND THERMAL
TROUGHING HAVE KEPT A STUBBORN STRATO-CU FIELD OVER THE NE THIRD
OF THE STATE...THOUGH ITS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING NE OVER THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUDS...TEMPS AND FROST HEADLINES.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHOULD SEE HIGH CIRRUS MOVE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...WHILE
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
LATE. SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE CLOUDS MOVING INLAND THAT COULD MESS
AROUND WITH FROST FORMATION OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE 5 KTS OR UNDER...AND LOCAL
DATA SUGGESTS LAND BREEZES WILL DEVELOP THAT WILL KEEP LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT...WILL LOWER TEMPS OVER EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF
FROST SO WITH COLLAB FROM OTHER OFFICES...WILL HOIST A FROST
ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR DOOR COUNTY.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA...EASTERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE MORNING...AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO
PUSH A MID-LAKE CLOUD BAND INLAND. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING. THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
MORE SUN EAST VERSUS WEST. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
PATTERN OVER CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO CONSIST OF STRONG UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROF/ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN CHANCES
CONTINUE...ALBEIT LOWER POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS COOLER AIR ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND A SECONDARY
WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF MOVE THRU. TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL THRU THU
AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PCPN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT MON AS WAA PATTERN SPREADS
EAST OVER THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY LAYER IN MID
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT MON. HAVE SLOWED PCPN A BIT EARLY
EVENING...THOUGH LEFT REST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST STAND...STAYING
DRY OVER THE EAST. WIDESPREAD PCPN EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE EVENING
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH STATE. DEEPER MOISTURE STRIPPED OUT
LATER TUE NIGHT/WED LEADING TO LOWER POPS OR LIGHT PCPN.
STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...THUS
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST. HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP ON
LAKE/BAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED GIVEN COLD AIR MASS MOVING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL
LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...DECREASING CLOUDS
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SET UP A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT. GOOD FLYING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE INCREASING AND GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ038-039-
048>050.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
AT 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT...WHICH BROUGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WAS JUST MOVING INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS FRONT BECAME MORE ACTIVE AS IT RAN INTO DEEPER MOISTURE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MINNESOTA AND IN WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST
INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WITH AN OPEN CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO
THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ALL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER FROST
WILL DEVELOP OR NOT. IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 1 KM WILL HAVE THE WINDS DROP
OFF INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. AS A RESULT...ONLY EXPECTING PATCHY FROST
IN THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW ONLY A COUPLE 100 FEET.
MEANWHILE THE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. WHILE
THE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...THERE IS MORE MOISTURE IN THE
LOWEST LAYERS. LIKE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FROST WILL BE PATCHY TO SCATTERED. WITH NO AREAS OF
WIDESPREAD FROST...THE CONSENSUS WAS NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY.
ON SUNDAY...A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HIGH PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL MIX TO AROUND 875 MB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL RANGING FROM 2 TO 5C...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES. THIS IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE NORMAL HIGH FOR MID-OCTOBER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP. THE COVERAGE LOOKS
TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TONIGHT. IF THIS CONTINUES...WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE 12.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OCCURRING...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING DEVELOPS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP MUCH OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN DRY. FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE AREA
WILL SEE MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.
AS A RESULT EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
PERIOD. HOWEVER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRY SLOT MAY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCUR...THERE WOULD
LIKELY BE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS AREA.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES
TO BE WHERE WILL THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL BE LOCATED AND HOW FAST
WILL IT MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. LIKE THEIR
PREDECESSORS...THE 12.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ITS
LOCATION AND TIMING. DUE TO THIS...KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RANGING FROM 16 TO 44 PERCENT. REGARDLESS WHETHER THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION...THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL TEMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 50S AND KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 DEGREES.
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW-NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AT LSE WHICH RAISES THE ISSUE OF WHETHER ANY
VALLEY FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS THINKING WAS THAT WINDS
WOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO THWART ANY DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH WINDS
CALM AT THE AIRPORT AND LIGHT HERE ON TOP OF THE BLUFFS AT THE NWS
OFFICE AND AT GRANDAD BLUFF THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE THAT THE FOG
WILL FORM. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NOT TOO HIGH AND SKIES ARE
CLEAR...IT IS JUST A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT/CALM ALL NIGHT LONG. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...HAVE JUST ADDED A BCFG TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RIVERTON WY
422 PM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS LOOMING TO OUR WEST OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND
UTAH. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY IN OUR MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF JOHNSON COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
CURRENTLY WE ARE UNDER THE SOUTHWEST UPPER DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR LIGHTNING ALONG THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF WYOMING FROM WEAK
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THIS MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REPLACED THE
MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE WEST. A CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON PIH RADAR IN EASTERN
IDAHO JUST WEST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE RUC INDICATING
INCREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE GFS...NAM AND THE ECMWF ALL
AGREE ON KEEPING THE MAIN JET ENERGY WELL TO THE SOUTH TRACKING
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH THE VORT ENERGY
STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THE
SURFACE FLOW IS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ATTM...EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...BUT AT MAINLY LIGHT SPEEDS. ONCE THE MAIN LOW OVER
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA STARTS TO BOMB...THE NORTH WINDS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WILL STRENGTHEN AND THUS INCREASE UPSLOPE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL. THE GFS INDICATES 3 SEPARATE SUBTLE CIRCULATIONS AT
700MB THAT WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF WYOMING
TONIGHT...NOT THE MOST ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED Q VECTOR
FORCING AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH THE 700MB CIRCULATIONS
TRACKING ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT WITH THE MAIN ENERGY WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...THE THINKING WAS ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES EAST OF THE DIVIDE...NAMELY THE WIND
RIVER...ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS CASPER
MOUNTAIN. THE BIG HORNS AND CASPER MTN WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND
ROUGHLY SIX HOURS COMPARED TO THE WINDS AND THE ABSAROKAS. DECIDED
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS...THE HIGH END SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE TIME OF YEAR AND
ALL THE HUNTERS THAT WILL BE NEGOTIATING THE WINTER CONDITIONS.
THE BULK OF THE COLDEST 700MB AIR WILL COME CLOSEST TO JOHNSON
COUNTY WHERE ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR THAT ZONE FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR BYG AND SHR BUT NONE FOR THE OTHER MOS GUIDANCE
FORECAST POINTS WHERE 700MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BY THE NAM TO BE
-9.5C IN NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY 00Z TUESDAY. NOT ONLY IS
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JOHNSON
COUNTY BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THERE AS WELL ON MONDAY ONCE THE STORM BOMBS
TO THE EAST. THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JOHNSON COUNTY AND THE GREEN MTNS...FOR
THAT MATTER...NEED A HILITE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTER SOME LINGERING FLURRIES...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER WYOMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FIRST...RESULTING IN A
VERY CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REMAIN OVER
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A CLEARING
SKY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL SEE A SUNNY SKY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN SETS UP ALOFT OVER WYOMING. IT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER MODELS. FURTHER IN
THE EXTENDED WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVES
IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...
WEST CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER NORTHERLY
STREAM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THESE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...BUT PREFER THE DRIER GFS FOR NOW. IF ANY AREA
WERE TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN...IT WOULD BE THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BECOMING MORE PREVALENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS
WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. THE MOST IMPACTED TAF SITE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE KJAC TERMINAL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE KJAC TERMINAL.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS
MUCH OF THE TIME.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
MOUNTAIN SNOW/VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE
THIS EVENING. TAF SITES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT...AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD WITH AN INCREASING PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST
AREAS BY 12Z MONDAY EXCEPT KCPR WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL 15Z.
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE WILL BE OBSCURED FOR MUCH OF FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE OTHER MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MONDAY.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
ICING FORECASTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
IRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW
PRESSURE...AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME OF
THE WEST CENTRAL WYOMING MOUNTAIN RANGES. THIS SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
BY MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE COOL
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE WIND OR MIXING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
MONDAY NIGHT WYZ022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
MONDAY WYZ002-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
MONDAY NIGHT WYZ008-009.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
322 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TREND TO LIFT THESE CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER...A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT...A NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
DRAPED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWFA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
VT...CAPITAL REGION OF NY AND THROUGH THE CATSKILLS. AMPLE STRATUS
WAS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH...SEVERAL BINOVC/S ARE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE METARS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE
DAY WILL BE THE PROGRESS /IF ANY/ OF THIS STRATUS DECK. PER THE
LATEST RUC13 AND 00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE... THE H925-H850 LAYER RH
FIELDS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH SOME MIXING EXPECTED IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME TRENDS SEEN IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR
TAKING THIS CLOUD LAYER FURTHER NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MEAN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES. SO WE
WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW THE SLOW MIGRATORY NATURE OF THESE CLOUDS AND
FOR SOME MIXING TO OCCUR FOR A PTSUNNY FORECAST EVOLVING FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WE WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ASSUMING WE DO
GET THOSE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WITH AROUND 70F AND MAINLY 60S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOME INFLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM THAT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILTED
NATURE OF THE UPPER FLOW...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED. SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE WE WILL PLACE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE RATHER CLOSE IN THE GUIDANCE AND
WE WILL PLACE VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
THE INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO AROUND
40KTS...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND POSITION OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER JET...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PWAT ANOMALIES REMAIN 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
PER THE GFS-ENSEMBLES SO RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. PER THE
UPPER JET STRUCTURE....THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER POPS.
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING REGARDING THUNDER POTENTIAL
AS SHOWALTER VALUES ARE PROGED TO BE AROUND 0C /THIS IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TIME STEPS/. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY WHEN THESE
LOWER SHOWALTER VALUES ARRIVE...WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
FROPA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE THERMAL PROFILES. WE
WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO MODESTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD W-SW FLOW
ALOFT...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING IN THE FAST SW FLOW
ALOFT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MIN
TEMPS THURS NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE DACKS TO THE MID 60S IN HUDSON
VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. MINS FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE VALLEY AREAS. MAX
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE SHUNTED NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...THERE WON/T BE MANY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE WILL GO WITH
LOW CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. WHILE TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL TEAM UP WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS AT NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /SOME 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SRN GREEN MTNS/.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KGFL/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR TO DEVELOP
THERE LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT /3 KTS OR LESS/ OR CALM AT ALL
SITES.
THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL...BKN
CIGS OF 3500 TO 6000 FT WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
SOME STRATUS MAY START TO MOVE TOWARDS KPOU FOR TUE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER SITES WILL BE CLEARING...AND SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP FOR KGFL/KPSF. CALM WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER UNTIL A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
APPROACHES THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR
LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RH VALUES TODAY WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THOSE VALUES RETURN TO AT OR
ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5 TO 12 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND MIDWEEK...WHEN AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UP TO AN INCH
OF RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAVE ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1238 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
755 PM CDT
MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF
IT IS STILL ON TRACK. A FEW SITES SUCH AS WAUKEGAN COOLED A BIT
MORE THAN FORECAST...HOWEVER THINKING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AS CLOUD COVER SPREADS OVER THE REGION. SPEAKING OF CLOUD
COVER...IR IMAGERY INDICATES PRIMARILY CLEAR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
OVER THE CWA AS THE CLOUDS OVER IOWA ARE ERODING SLIGHTLY AS THEY
APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF CLOUD
COVER A BIT BUT STILL EXPECTING THE THICKER CLOUD COVER TO MOVE IN
LATE THIS EVENING. LASTLY...ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER FIT TIMING OF
ADVANCING SHOWERS OVER IOWA AND RECENT HRRR TRENDS. USED THE HRRR
BECAUSE IT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP THE PAST FEW HOURS.
JEE
//PREV DISCUSSION...
302 PM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS ON THIS COLUMBUS DAY ARE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES ALONG WITH TIMING ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES AS
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN ENSUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS CONTRACTING NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A CRISP
MORNING WITH NUMEROUS VOLUNTEER OBSERVERS IN OUTLYING AREAS
REPORTING FROST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST ENTIRELY
DIMINISHED AS CONVERGENCE HAS WEAKENED AND THE DRY OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE HAS WON OUT. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW ON WATER VAPOR
IS BECOMING NEUTRALLY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
IT...AND IS THE WEATHER MAKER FOR TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THIS EVE AND LIKELY HOLD
STEADY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND REORIENTS AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA. BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE
IN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP AT A DECENT RATE AND THEN HOLD
STEADY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW DEEPENS AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THIS DEEPENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS INTO
THE REGION. FAIRLY GOOD SETUP FOR SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS
FROM IA INTO MO DEVELOPING EASTWARD...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS
REACHING THE WESTERN CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT...AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT...MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THIS
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. THE CHANNELED VORTICITY ALONG THIS AXIS SEEMS TO WEAKEN
BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...SO SHOWER COVERAGE MAY TRY
TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT TREND...BUT STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO WARRANT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. AS MENTIONED IN
PREV DISCUSSION...DYNAMICS ALONG WITH FORECAST SLIGHT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION TODAY TO OUR WEST AND INCHED UP THUNDER WORDING
A BIT OVER OUR AREA FOR THAT.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING TUE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
AHEAD OF THIS...CONVERGENCE AND NARROW INSTABILITY TONGUE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD PREVAIL BEHIND THE MORNING ACTIVITY...SO INSTABILITY RETURN
LOOKS MARGINAL. WITH THAT...DCAPE LOOKS MARGINAL AS WELL...SO
WHILE THE WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE APPRECIABLE...ANY GUSTIER STORMS
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
SOLUTIONS MAKE SENSE WITH THE SYSTEM DRY SLOT EVOLVING IN QUICKLY
TUE EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY TUE NIGHT IN MOST PLACES. COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO WRAP AROUND THE CYCLONE AND
COME IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY FORECAST
TEMPERATURE TREND APPROPRIATELY FOR THIS.
WEDNESDAY...THE HEART OF THE UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY/DEEPER CLOUD
DEPTHS LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH ON WED SO ONLY CONTINUE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE LOOKING TO BE
JUST NORTH IN WI. COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS/STRATOCU SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. WITH THAT AND
A COOLING COLUMN...MID TO UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR HIGHS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...A SUBSTANTIAL LONG WAVE TROUGH IS STILL VERY
MUCH ON TRACK TO CARVE ITSELF OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA...WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAKES IT
CHALLENGING FOR TEMPERATURES...NAMELY MIN TEMPS...AS CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A ROLE. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MAX TEMPS LOOK
TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEADING INTO AND DURING NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS
CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR LOWS AT FREEZING IF THE SKY CLEARS AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PREVAILS...WHICH IT LIKELY WILL AT SOME
POINT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH EVOLVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS
MID MORNING TUESDAY.
* CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.
* SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
TONIGHT DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE FARTHER EAST OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY
STRUGGLE INITIALLY AS IT RUNS INTO DRY AIR...BUT PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION WILL HELP SATURATE THE LAYER WITH CIGS GRADUALLY DROPPING
TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
WIDESPREAD RANGE OF CIGS FROM IFR TO VFR...AND LIKEWISE GUIDANCE IS
NOT PICKING UP ON A STRONG SIGNAL ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL GO. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR CIGS WITH SCTD CLOUDS DOWN TO AROUND
010.
WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TOMORROW...AND GRADUALLY VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW
MOVES ENE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN...AND STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR
THE SURFACE EARLY TOMORROW WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. BUT A 55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET INITIALLY OVER IOWA BEGINS TO VEER OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AROUND DAYBREAK....WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT DOES SO...BUT
STILL SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR LLWS AT RFD. BY MID AFTERNOON...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO STEEPEN MIXING DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT. GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA OVERSPREADING TERMINALS AROUND
15Z.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG HEIGHTS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
DIRECTION.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY. EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT OR 20-25KT RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE IF
WINDS TURN EAST OR EVEN NORTHEAST ON THE FAR NORTH END OF THE LAKE
AND SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK. AS THE LOW DEPARTS
ON WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS LOOK
REASONABLE AND THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF AT LEAST GUSTS TO
LOW END GALES THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN/T TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY GALES WITH THIS FORECAST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION FRIDAY WITH COLDER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15-25KTS AT TIMES. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1209 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: MOST OF THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD AND LINE OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF KHYS. WITH WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. BUT EXPECT
RENEWED CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CONVECTION OVER NW KS MOVES SLOWLY E-SE AS THE LATE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES.
LATEST RAP OUTPUT SHOWS SFC BASED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE
LACKING...ONLY AROUND 1800 J/KG FOR AREAS JUST ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE
MAIN DRY LINE/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT.
BUT BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO MAKE UP FOR THIS...WITH IMPRESSIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 50-70KTS. SO COULD SEE A LOW TOPPED LINE CONVECTION
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY MAKE UP FOR LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES
FOR AT LEAST A SMALL SEVERE EVENT IN CENTRAL KS WITH STRONG STORMS MORE
LIKELY. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT (GIVEN BY
SPC) THIS FAR SOUTH...AS NOT A CLASSIC COLD CORE SETUP...GIVEN
VERTICAL STRETCHING WILL BE LIMITED...UNLESS CLOUDS CAN THIN ENOUGH
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KS. SO THINK A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR ANY KIND
OF TORNADO/FUNNEL...PROBABLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NRN KS.
MORE OF A LOW TOPPED LINE WITH QUARTER HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO MAKE PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT...WITH
A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA.
ALSO THINK THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE WEST
OF I-135 GIVEN THE TIMING.
TUE-THU: EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY ON TUE...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUE-THU WILL BE THE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. THIS COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS FOR WED MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
WILL SEE ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED INTO WED EVE. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION....SO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS IT COMES ACROSS.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME VERY LOW POPS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS...BUT GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A SPRINKLE
CHANCE FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN KS GIVEN THE DRY LOW LAYERS.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS KS FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRI. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF TRIES TO BRING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS KS BY
FRI...AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE
BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY CONFINED TO EXTREME SRN KS OR OK. COULD
SEE SOME 850-700H MOISTURE RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY FOR A
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
KS. SO FOR CONSENSUS SAKE...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THIS CHANCE.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR WEEKEND AS SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WARMER TEMPS SHUNTED FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS HAS DIMINISHED. THE ONLY
REMAINING SITE IS KCNU WHICH MAY HAVE SOME RA...BUT THE THUNDER
HAS BEEN LACKING IF EXISTENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 9Z. OTHERWISE THE ONLY ISSUE
WITH THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS. THERE HAS BEEN
VARIABILITY IN THE SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND THE IMPACT FROM THE PRECIPITATION PARTICULARLY FOR KICT
AND KCNU...HOWEVER DECIDED TO TREND WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES GIVEN
WHAT IS OCCURRING FURTHER UPSTREAM. AS THE SUN COMES OUT...THE
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE EVEN MORE WITH THE LACKING CLOUD COVER AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO OCCUR AFTER THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AS CIGS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN LIFTED AT MOST SITES.
JUANITA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 47 62 39 61 / 90 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 45 60 38 61 / 90 10 10 10
NEWTON 46 60 37 59 / 90 10 10 10
ELDORADO 48 62 39 60 / 80 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 49 64 41 61 / 80 10 10 10
RUSSELL 40 58 34 58 / 90 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 40 59 33 59 / 80 0 0 10
SALINA 44 60 36 61 / 90 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 45 60 36 60 / 90 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 52 64 43 60 / 80 20 10 20
CHANUTE 51 63 42 60 / 80 10 10 10
IOLA 50 63 42 59 / 80 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 52 64 42 60 / 80 20 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
526 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER ERN S DAKOTA. STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE SUPPORTING A WIDE
BAND OF SHRA SPREADING N THRU WRN WI/FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD
WRN UPPER MI. AT 09Z...LEADING EDGE OF PCPN APPEARED BE VERY NEAR
KIWD.
SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY NOW AS MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MID LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES
EAST...CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES WED MORNING. AS A RESULT...DEEP
LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS DIMINISHES MAKREDLY TODAY AS DOES
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THUS...APPROACHING AREA OF
SHRA WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND PROBABLY COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE A PERIOD
OF RAINFALL. HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL) WILL BE UTILIZED OVER THE W
WITH A TREND DOWN TOWARD LIKELY OVER THE E. THIS AFTN...PCPN WILL
BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT OVER THE W AS MAIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE
SHIFTS E. A RIBBON OF MUCAPE (PERHAPS UPWARDS OF 200-300J/KG PER
NAM) SHIFTS ACROSS MAINLY SRN/ERN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...WITH MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT NOSING INTO SCNTRL/ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING...SHRA
MAY MOSTLY END FOR A TIME ACROSS THAT AREA.
DIMINISHING DEFORMATION ZONE -SHRA WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI MOST LIKELY TO SEE
MORE PERSISTENT SHRA. DEVELOPING UPSLOPE AS WINDS BACK FROM EASTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SHRA AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON...WITH MUCH MORE SEASONAL WEATHER
EXPECTED.
AT 12Z WED...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...WITH A CLOSED 850MB AND SFC TROUGH OVER OR NEAR THE ERN CWA
/DEPENDING ON MODEL...BUT THEY ALL HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA/.
PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER MUST OF UPPER MI DUE TO A TROWAL ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW. SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC
PRECIP EXITING THE ERN CWA AROUND OF JUST AFTER 18Z WED. MODELS ARE
ALSO HINTING AT SOME LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C BY 18Z OVER CENTRAL AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THAT THE LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL
LAST TOO LONG AS A SFC AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA
BY 18Z WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 00Z THU.
WED NIGHT LOOKS CHILLY IN MANY SPOTS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT UNDER THE
RIDGING...BUT CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S INLAND TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
THU LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND AN UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS SURGING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NW. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW CHANCE
CATEGORY UNTIL LATE.
EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES A MORE DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS...AND WILL EVEN MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FLOWING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL
EFFECT THE CWA...BUT DETAILS WITH THESE SHORTER WAVE LENGTH SYSTEMS
ARE FAR MORE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. AS LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS...850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C BY 00Z SAT AND MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE
THEY WILL STAY AROUND THAT TEMP THROUGH SAT...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON
IF/WHEN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CAN DRAG REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR
INTO THE CWA. MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WERE A FEW DEGREES COLDER BY
SAT...BUT THAT WAS BECAUSE THEY HAD THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER ENERGY
MOVING IN FASTER. STILL THINK THAT THE QUICKER ENTRANCE OF THE
COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF THAT ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST IS LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT MODELS RUNS ARE INSTEAD SLOWER
WITH THE COLD AIR...BRINGING -5C TO -7C 850MB TEMPS OVERHEAD SUN
INTO MON. THIS WOULD LEAD TO PURE LAKE EFFECT GIVEN LAKE SFC TEMPS
OF 9C TO 13C. PTYPE IS ALSO COMPLEX AND DEPENDENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER TEMPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SNOW WILL MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NIGHT WHEN NEAR SFC TEMPS ARE COOLER. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S SHOULD KEEP PRECIP MORE AS RAIN...OR
AT LEAST MELT ANY SNOW AS IT FALLS. STILL UNCERTAIN WITH A LOT OF
SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER IS DEFINITELY IN
STORE FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR IN THE
MORNING AND IFR BY AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES IN AND INCREASES IN
INTENSITY. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LOW PRES OVER SE SD WILL MOVE E...CROSSING SRN AND ERN UPPER MI
TONIGHT AND REACHING QUEBEC WED NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...EXPECT E
TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN OCNL
GALE FORCE WINDS WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED. OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
15-25KT. AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE AREA AND WINDS BACK NORTHERLY...
20-30KT WINDS WILL SHIFT E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH W TO E WED/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER E
AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE AOB 20KT THU/FRI. AS INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY DISTURBANCES DROP ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1138 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 839 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
No significant changes needed to going forecast. Band of rain
continues to slowly move east across Missouri at mid evening.
Rainfall amounts have been light as it has struggled with a constant
feed of low level dry air advection from the east. Latest runs of
the HRRR suggests that this band will slowly diminish through
midnight, while the line of storms extending from the Minnesota
into central Kansas will eventually move into the CWA after
midnight. The latest RAP and previous models confirm this idea and
depict the strong low level moisture convergence moving into the
CWA ahead of the mid level trough, so will keep likely/categorical
chances of showers/isolated thunderstorms going late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Only minor tweaking needed to rest of the forecast.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
WAA precipitation is expected to spread across the area tonight from
west to east. Another round of precipitation is expected tomorrow
with the cold frontal passage. Although the air mass is initially
fairly dry this afternoon with dew points in the 40s generally north
of a line from KCOU to KSTL, recent MSAS analyses of surface
equivalent potential temperature show that the E-W portion of the
stalled cold front has been making steady northward progress as a
warm front over the last few hours, bringing higher dew points into
MO/IL. In addition to the ongoing top-down saturation processes at
work, this low level moisture advection should help saturate the
column ahead of the advancing precipitation shield associated with
the NW-SE portion of the warm front. LLJ moisture convergence along
this boundary is forecast to persist through the night as it
progresses eastward. Meager model forecasts of MUCAPE between 00-12z
suggest that most of the precipitation will fall as rain showers
with perhaps a few isolated embedded thunderstorms. Overnight lows
are expected to be much warmer than last night due to ample cloud
cover and steady southeast to south winds.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
Going forecast trends still look quite good for Tuesday and into
Tuesday evening, with 12z runs continuing to support the faster
ewd movement of the system across the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Showers and thunderstorms that work into the region overnight
should be winding down on Tuesday morning over northwest sections
of the CWA as cold front pushes through this area and jet and
associated dry slot surges around the base of the upper low. From
southeast Missouri into southern Illinois showers and scattered
thunderstorms should still be going strong through mid-morning as
isentropic ascent of very moisture-laden airmass and moisture
advection remains focused over this area. While PoPs will
certainly linger over this part of the CWA into the afternoon,
threat/coverage should be less than that of the morning as it
appears lift will not be as strong during this time. It may be
that once the morning precip winds down any additional precip will
be tied to activity along the actual cold front (as suggested by
the 4km WRF), but will leave this additional "fine-tuning" until
specific trends are more clear.
Last vestiges of showers and isolated thunderstorms should exit far
southeast sections of the CWA Tuesday evening with the passage of
the cold front, leaving dry conditions across the region for the
remainder of the night and into Wednesday. However, cold air SC
spiralling around low should drop out of Iowa and spin its way
across at least the northern half of our CWA late Tuesday night and
early Wednesday. This cloudiness should then thin out during the
day as upper system drifts into southern Canada. These clouds, as
well as a light west/northwest surface wind, may keep temps from
falling too much Tuesday night and have gone with lows in the mid to
upper 40s over most of the area. Clouds should also inhibit warmup
during the day on Wednesday in some areas, and it may be that far
northern section of the CWA will struggle to reach 60.
NWP solutions are coming into better agreement with upper level
system for Wednesday night, with all solutions now showing strong
mid- level forcing from eastern Ozarks into the southern half of IL.
Have tweeked going PoPs a bit to include most areas along and
south of a MYJ- PPQ line for late Wednesday night, and have
continued these into Thursday for parts of the FA. I have left
PoPs over our far northern counties (including UIN) in the slight
chance range for now as best forcing appears to occur well south,
however some model qpfs are painting very light QPF as far N as
se IA, so will have to keep an eye on this area.
Medium range solutions continue to paint a broad UA trof over much
of the CONUS for the end of this week and into the weekend, with
several shortwaves dropping through the base of the trof during this
time frame. It`s certainly possible that one of these may bring us
a bit of light precip, but timing/locations of these systems are
varying so much from run to run and model to model don`t have enough
confidence to pin down any given time period. So, main focus in
the Thursday-Monday time frame will be a continuation of below
normal temps, and PoPs remaining below chance category for now.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
Expect light ra/sprinkles to continue at COU/UIN until heavier
precip arrives late tonight. Have timed in two bands of precip
into terminals into sunrise Tues morning. Sprinkles may also begin
at SUS/CPS, but with little on radar attm, will go with vcsh for
now. The two bands mentioned are expected to morph into one line
as it moves E. Winds will become wly behind the fnt with clouds
lingering into the afternoon. Winds shud diminish with clouds
clearing by sunset or shortly after. Stratus deck may move
into/develop and affect UIN and COU, but shud be beyond the
current TAF period.
Specifics for KSTL: Very light ra or sprinkles will be possible
thru the night. Two bands of shra over far wrn MO/ern KS are
expected to merge and reach terminal soon after sunrise. Behind
this precip, MVFR cigs are expected to linger into/thru the
afternoon with gusty wly winds. Winds shud diminish with clouds
clearing around or shortly after sunset.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DRIFTING NORTHEAST. A
SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR MAY SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAINFALL TODAY AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THESE AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION FROM 2 KFT TO ALMOST 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THIS DRY SLOT BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON
THESE AREAS WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE. PLAN ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES IN. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LINKING UP
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN LINGERS OVER THE
AREA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PLAN ON LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. PLAN ON DECREASING CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. LOW
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER HUDSONS BAY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AND SETS UP A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR STARTS TO
INVADE THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 0 TO -2C RANGE FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH
THEN DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY
THEN DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT TIMES
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -4C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM -8C OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND -2C ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HAVE INCLUDED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I94 DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS WITH THE RAIN AND
WHEN CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR. RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS START OUT AS VFR...BUT THEN CEILINGS START DROPPING
INTO THE HIGH END MVFR RANGE IN THE MAIN RAIN CHANNEL THAT
CURRENTLY IS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY COME AS THE RAIN ENDS AND CEILINGS DROP TO IFR IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. SHORT TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS AREA WILL ACTUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MISS
THE REGION...BUT THE CURRENT IFR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WELL
PORTRAYED BY THE GUIDANCE IN WESTERN IOWA. FURTHER WEST...A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER AND THIS FEATURE
MARKS AN IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR CEILINGS. SO...IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL GO FROM VFR TO MVFR AS THE RAIN COMES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. THEN THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AFTER THE
RAIN ENDS AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THEN CEILINGS
WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO MVFR AND LIKELY STAY THERE UNTIL A TROUGH
DROPS BACK DOWN INTO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND BRINGS SOME
RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH IT. CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOKS FAIRLY
LOW...PARTICULARLY AT LSE...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVERNIGHT ON INTO TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
820 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TREND TO LIFT THESE CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER...A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 815 AM EDT...HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED DATABASE TO ACCOUNT FOR
PATCHY DRIZZLE...WHICH IS OCCURRING FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION EXTENDING INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENE MTNS.
OTHERWISE...THE STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA
THIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 06Z GUIDANCE AND HOURLY RUC GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS STRATUS DECK WILL BE SLOWLY TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPECTATION REMAINS THE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE AND A SLOW RETREAT OF THE CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH IS EXPECTED.
AS OF 320 AM EDT...A NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
DRAPED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWFA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
VT...CAPITAL REGION OF NY AND THROUGH THE CATSKILLS. AMPLE STRATUS
WAS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH...SEVERAL BINOVC/S ARE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE METARS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE
DAY WILL BE THE PROGRESS /IF ANY/ OF THIS STRATUS DECK. PER THE
LATEST RUC13 AND 00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE... THE H925-H850 LAYER RH
FIELDS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH SOME MIXING EXPECTED IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME TRENDS SEEN IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR
TAKING THIS CLOUD LAYER FURTHER NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MEAN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES. SO WE
WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW THE SLOW MIGRATORY NATURE OF THESE CLOUDS AND
FOR SOME MIXING TO OCCUR FOR A PTSUNNY FORECAST EVOLVING FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WE WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ASSUMING WE DO
GET THOSE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WITH AROUND 70F AND MAINLY 60S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOME INFLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM THAT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILTED
NATURE OF THE UPPER FLOW...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED. SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE WE WILL PLACE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE RATHER CLOSE IN THE GUIDANCE AND
WE WILL PLACE VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
THE INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO AROUND
40KTS...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND POSITION OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER JET...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PWAT ANOMALIES REMAIN 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
PER THE GFS-ENSEMBLES SO RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. PER THE
UPPER JET STRUCTURE....THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER POPS.
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING REGARDING THUNDER POTENTIAL
AS SHOWALTER VALUES ARE PROGED TO BE AROUND 0C /THIS IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TIME STEPS/. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY WHEN THESE
LOWER SHOWALTER VALUES ARRIVE...WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
FROPA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE THERMAL PROFILES. WE
WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO MODESTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD W-SW FLOW
ALOFT...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING IN THE FAST SW FLOW
ALOFT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MIN
TEMPS THURS NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE DACKS TO THE MID 60S IN HUDSON
VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. MINS FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE VALLEY AREAS. MAX
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE SHUNTED NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...THERE WON/T BE MANY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE WILL GO WITH
LOW CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. WHILE TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL TEAM UP WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS AT NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /SOME 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SRN GREEN MTNS/.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BKN-OVC CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT
3500 TO 7000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESP FOR KGFL/KALB. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM THIS MORNING AND JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTN HOURS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT
AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY START TO MOVE TOWARDS KPOU FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER SITES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SCT SOME
SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND PASSING CIRRUS. AS A RESULT...SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP FOR KGFL/KPSF. CALM WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER UNTIL A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
APPROACHES THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR
LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RH VALUES TODAY WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THOSE VALUES RETURN TO AT OR
ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5 TO 12 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND MIDWEEK...WHEN AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UP TO AN INCH
OF RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAVE ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
732 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TREND TO LIFT THESE CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER...A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWFA THIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 06Z GUIDANCE AND HOURLY RUC
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS STRATUS DECK WILL BE SLOWLY TO
MIGRATE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPECTATION REMAINS THE BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND A SLOW RETREAT OF THE CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 320 AM EDT...A NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
DRAPED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWFA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
VT...CAPITAL REGION OF NY AND THROUGH THE CATSKILLS. AMPLE STRATUS
WAS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH...SEVERAL BINOVC/S ARE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE METARS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE
DAY WILL BE THE PROGRESS /IF ANY/ OF THIS STRATUS DECK. PER THE
LATEST RUC13 AND 00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE... THE H925-H850 LAYER RH
FIELDS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH SOME MIXING EXPECTED IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME TRENDS SEEN IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR
TAKING THIS CLOUD LAYER FURTHER NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MEAN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES. SO WE
WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW THE SLOW MIGRATORY NATURE OF THESE CLOUDS AND
FOR SOME MIXING TO OCCUR FOR A PTSUNNY FORECAST EVOLVING FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WE WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ASSUMING WE DO
GET THOSE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WITH AROUND 70F AND MAINLY 60S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOME INFLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM THAT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILTED
NATURE OF THE UPPER FLOW...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED. SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE WE WILL PLACE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE RATHER CLOSE IN THE GUIDANCE AND
WE WILL PLACE VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
THE INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO AROUND
40KTS...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND POSITION OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER JET...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PWAT ANOMALIES REMAIN 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
PER THE GFS-ENSEMBLES SO RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. PER THE
UPPER JET STRUCTURE....THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER POPS.
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING REGARDING THUNDER POTENTIAL
AS SHOWALTER VALUES ARE PROGED TO BE AROUND 0C /THIS IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TIME STEPS/. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY WHEN THESE
LOWER SHOWALTER VALUES ARRIVE...WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
FROPA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE THERMAL PROFILES. WE
WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO MODESTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD W-SW FLOW
ALOFT...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING IN THE FAST SW FLOW
ALOFT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MIN
TEMPS THURS NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE DACKS TO THE MID 60S IN HUDSON
VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. MINS FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE VALLEY AREAS. MAX
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE SHUNTED NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...THERE WON/T BE MANY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE WILL GO WITH
LOW CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. WHILE TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL TEAM UP WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS AT NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /SOME 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SRN GREEN MTNS/.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BKN-OVC CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT
3500 TO 7000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESP FOR KGFL/KALB. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM THIS MORNING AND JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTN HOURS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT
AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY START TO MOVE TOWARDS KPOU FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER SITES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SCT SOME
SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND PASSING CIRRUS. AS A RESULT...SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP FOR KGFL/KPSF. CALM WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER UNTIL A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
APPROACHES THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR
LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RH VALUES TODAY WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THOSE VALUES RETURN TO AT OR
ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5 TO 12 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND MIDWEEK...WHEN AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UP TO AN INCH
OF RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAVE ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TREND TO LIFT THESE CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER...A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWFA THIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 06Z GUIDANCE AND HOURLY RUC
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS STRATUS DECK WILL BE SLOWLY TO
MIGRATE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPECTATION REMAINS THE BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND A SLOW RETREAT OF THE CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 320 AM EDT...A NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
DRAPED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWFA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
VT...CAPITAL REGION OF NY AND THROUGH THE CATSKILLS. AMPLE STRATUS
WAS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH...SEVERAL BINOVC/S ARE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE METARS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE
DAY WILL BE THE PROGRESS /IF ANY/ OF THIS STRATUS DECK. PER THE
LATEST RUC13 AND 00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE... THE H925-H850 LAYER RH
FIELDS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH SOME MIXING EXPECTED IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME TRENDS SEEN IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR
TAKING THIS CLOUD LAYER FURTHER NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MEAN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES. SO WE
WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW THE SLOW MIGRATORY NATURE OF THESE CLOUDS AND
FOR SOME MIXING TO OCCUR FOR A PTSUNNY FORECAST EVOLVING FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WE WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ASSUMING WE DO
GET THOSE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WITH AROUND 70F AND MAINLY 60S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOME INFLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM THAT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILTED
NATURE OF THE UPPER FLOW...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED. SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE WE WILL PLACE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE RATHER CLOSE IN THE GUIDANCE AND
WE WILL PLACE VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
THE INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO AROUND
40KTS...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND POSITION OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER JET...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PWAT ANOMALIES REMAIN 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
PER THE GFS-ENSEMBLES SO RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. PER THE
UPPER JET STRUCTURE....THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER POPS.
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING REGARDING THUNDER POTENTIAL
AS SHOWALTER VALUES ARE PROGED TO BE AROUND 0C /THIS IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TIME STEPS/. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY WHEN THESE
LOWER SHOWALTER VALUES ARRIVE...WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
FROPA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE THERMAL PROFILES. WE
WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO MODESTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD W-SW FLOW
ALOFT...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING IN THE FAST SW FLOW
ALOFT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MIN
TEMPS THURS NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE DACKS TO THE MID 60S IN HUDSON
VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. MINS FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE VALLEY AREAS. MAX
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE SHUNTED NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...THERE WON/T BE MANY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE WILL GO WITH
LOW CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. WHILE TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL TEAM UP WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS AT NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /SOME 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SRN GREEN MTNS/.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KGFL/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR TO DEVELOP
THERE LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT /3 KTS OR LESS/ OR CALM AT ALL
SITES.
THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL...BKN
CIGS OF 3500 TO 6000 FT WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
SOME STRATUS MAY START TO MOVE TOWARDS KPOU FOR TUE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER SITES WILL BE CLEARING...AND SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP FOR KGFL/KPSF. CALM WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER UNTIL A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
APPROACHES THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR
LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RH VALUES TODAY WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THOSE VALUES RETURN TO AT OR
ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5 TO 12 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND MIDWEEK...WHEN AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UP TO AN INCH
OF RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAVE ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS OF MID MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY
CROSSING THE WABASH RIVER INTO THE STATE SHORTLY BEFORE 14Z. TEMPS
WERE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 50S AS OF MID MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE ONSET OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A FEW HOURS QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. APPEARS A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE FRONT IS
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE EXTENSIVE EASTWARD PUSH TO THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THIS AREA OF LIFT WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND BUMPS INTO
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT...WITH
HIGHER POPS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z
WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.
NUMEROUS FEATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE STATE AS A CHANGE IN AIR
MASS TAKES PLACE. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED WET BULB TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP.
ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID THE PASSING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AMID WEAK FORCING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS POPS AS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AND TREND POPS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE FORECAST COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY...AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO WORK
IN ON WEST WINDS. AS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE
3 HOURLY VALUES.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GFS AND NAM DEPICT YET ANOTHER
LARGE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN RATHER DRY AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREAS HAS
BEEN SWEPT EAST WITH THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS...DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATE...FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCLUDE SOME CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS
THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASS.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINS PREVALENT IN THE
VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH LOWS
NEAR MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THUS A CONTINUATION THE COOLEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH OUT OF THE 50S
SOME DAYS AND LOWS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER
30S MOST NIGHTS.
ONE OR MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED BACK INITIALIZED POPS TO FOCUS ON THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
THIS TO OCCUR...WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SEVERAL
TIMES AS THESE FEATURES ARE SUBTLE AND TYPICALLY POORLY HANDLED BY
MODELS.
IN GENERAL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN ABRUPT INTRODUCTION TO
MUCH MORE AUTUMN LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/15Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
DELAYED VCSH UNTIL 16Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR IN
VICINITY OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING AND SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC. SHOULD BE A WHILE BEFORE ANY OF THE LIGHT ECHOES IN
THE AREA MAKES THE GROUND...AND EXPECT THAT THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
BE THE BEST TIME FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS. PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE
ESPECIALLY HEAVY HOWEVER...AND MAY NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES.
EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IS LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN ANY FORM.
NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF RESTRICTED
CEILINGS BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES IN AND CEILINGS LIFT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KT TODAY...SWITCHING TO THE
WEST POST FRONT TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS OF MID MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY
CROSSING THE WABASH RIVER INTO THE STATE SHORTLY BEFORE 14Z. TEMPS
WERE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 50S AS OF MID MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE ONSET OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A FEW HOURS QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. APPEARS A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE FRONT IS
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE EXTENSIVE EASTWARD PUSH TO THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THIS AREA OF LIFT WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND BUMPS INTO
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT...WITH
HIGHER POPS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z
WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.
NUMEROUS FEATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE STATE AS A CHANGE IN AIR
MASS TAKES PLACE. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED WET BULB TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP.
ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID THE PASSING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AMID WEAK FORCING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS POPS AS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AND TREND POPS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE FORECAST COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY...AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO WORK
IN ON WEST WINDS. AS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE
3 HOURLY VALUES.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GFS AND NAM DEPICT YET ANOTHER
LARGE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN RATHER DRY AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREAS HAS
BEEN SWEPT EAST WITH THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS...DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATE...FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCLUDE SOME CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS
THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASS.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINS PREVALENT IN THE
VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH LOWS
NEAR MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THUS A CONTINUATION THE COOLEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH OUT OF THE 50S
SOME DAYS AND LOWS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER
30S MOST NIGHTS.
ONE OR MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED BACK INITIALIZED POPS TO FOCUS ON THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
THIS TO OCCUR...WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SEVERAL
TIMES AS THESE FEATURES ARE SUBTLE AND TYPICALLY POORLY HANDLED BY
MODELS.
IN GENERAL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN ABRUPT INTRODUCTION TO
MUCH MORE AUTUMN LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR IN
VICINITY OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING AND SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC. SHOULD BE A WHILE BEFORE ANY OF THE LIGHT ECHOES IN
THE AREA MAKES THE GROUND...AND EXPECT THAT THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
BE THE BEST TIME FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS. PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE
ESPECIALLY HEAVY HOWEVER...AND MAY NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES.
EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IS LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN ANY FORM.
NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF RESTRICTED
CEILINGS BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES IN AND CEILINGS LIFT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KT TODAY...SWITCHING TO THE
WEST POST FRONT TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1136 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WE/RE HEADING INTO A WET PERIOD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES BY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION AND HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
I DID UPDATED THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS USING
A COMBINATION OF OUR NEW TOOL...CONSSHORT...THE HRRR 13-14Z...THE
RAP 13Z AND LOOKING AT THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS. MY CURRENT THINKING
IS THE AREA OF SHOWERS WEST OF US WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO MID
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ALSO WEAKENS. HOWEVER... ONCE THE
CONVECTIVE BAND GETS TO MID-LAKE MICHIGAN IT SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY. THERE IS MARGINALLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SO I TIMES THE THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN BAND THROUGH THE CWA FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...WHILE IT IS TRUE THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NEAR 60KT... THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS RATHER SHALLOW
AND THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW (ONLY 250-300 J/KG). THE RESULT IS THE
EFFECT SHEAR IS BELOW 30 KNOTS. STILL WE HAVE 35 TO 40 KNOTS BELOW
5000 FT AGL AND THE AIR WILL BE DRY BELOW 6000 FT AGL UNTIL THE
RAIN ACTUALLY STARTS SO THAT WOULD ALLOW THE 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS
TO MIX DOWN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SO WHILE I DO
NOT SEE SEVERE STORMS THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG GUSTS OF WIND AS
THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.
AS TYPICAL OF THIS SORT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND IN THE EARLY TO MID
FALL I EXPECT THE HEAVIES RAINFALL TO BE NEAR AND WEST OF US-131
DUE TO THE LAKE ENHANCING THE STORMS. IT MAY WELL BE THAT LOCATIONS
NEAR AND NORTH OF HOLLAND COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE CONVECTIVE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I AM THINKING AS MUCH AS
1/2 INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR FROM THE CONVECTION MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN FACT SHOWN ON THE HRRR FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
ALL OF THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH MID
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH TSRA POTENTIAL
TODAY.
A DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS APPROACHING LOWER MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A
LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST A FEW THINGS ARE GOING TO COME TOGETHER
LATER TODAY TO RESULT IN A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG/SVR STORMS.
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE CWA AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LI/S NEAR -2C AND SBCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. THOSE VALUES
ARE NOT REAL HIGH...BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH SHEAR VALUES IN THE
45-55KT RANGE AND FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS WELL AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE A FEW STORMS. WIND WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...
HOWEVER THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30KTS SO THAT WILL
HELP IN DRAWING MOISTURE NWD. THE STORM THREAT WILL END THIS
EVENING.
COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
FOLLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE/LL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THEME OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS ONE OF COLDER AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN
SPINNING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA. MOISTURE DWINDLES SOME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS.
SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE...850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF +3C TO -3C THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. LAKE WATER TEMPS ARE ON
THE ORDER OF +17C...SO +4C AND COLDER WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
LAKE PRECIP. A DEEP TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
WELL BY THE GFS...AND THE ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME AROUND...TRENDING
TOWARD THE DEEPER GFS SOLUTION. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE A SHOWERY PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LEADING TO A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS. HIGHEST
POPS OBVIOUSLY TOWARDS THE LAKE...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL DRIVE WELL
INLAND. HAVE LOW 50S FOR HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND RIGHT NOW...BUT CAN
SEE NEEDING TO TREND THIS DOWN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...21Z OR SO...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
ADVANCING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR
VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
IFR VSBYS TOO. THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 04Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
MAIN BATCH OF RAIN WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BACK TO VFR AFTER 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
I ADDED WATER SPOUTS TO OUR NEAR SHORE FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
8 AM THURSDAY. THAT IS BASED ON 850 TO LAKE TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
15C AND 18C WEDNESDAY AND A CONVECTIVE DEPTH OF AROUND 8000 FT...
ALL OF WHICH FALL WITHIN OUR WATER SPOUT NOMOGRAM. SO DO NOT BE
SURPRIZED IF YOUR BY THE LAKE SHORE WEDNESDAY AND SPOT ONE OF
THEM. I CONTINUED THE SCA....LITTLE QUESTION ABOUT THAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW OF THE STORMS TODAY MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER ERN S DAKOTA. STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE SUPPORTING A WIDE
BAND OF SHRA SPREADING N THRU WRN WI/FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD
WRN UPPER MI. AT 09Z...LEADING EDGE OF PCPN APPEARED BE VERY NEAR
KIWD.
SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY NOW AS MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MID LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES
EAST...CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES WED MORNING. AS A RESULT...DEEP
LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS DIMINISHES MAKREDLY TODAY AS DOES
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THUS...APPROACHING AREA OF
SHRA WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND PROBABLY COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE A PERIOD
OF RAINFALL. HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL) WILL BE UTILIZED OVER THE W
WITH A TREND DOWN TOWARD LIKELY OVER THE E. THIS AFTN...PCPN WILL
BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT OVER THE W AS MAIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE
SHIFTS E. A RIBBON OF MUCAPE (PERHAPS UPWARDS OF 200-300J/KG PER
NAM) SHIFTS ACROSS MAINLY SRN/ERN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...WITH MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT NOSING INTO SCNTRL/ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING...SHRA
MAY MOSTLY END FOR A TIME ACROSS THAT AREA.
DIMINISHING DEFORMATION ZONE -SHRA WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI MOST LIKELY TO SEE
MORE PERSISTENT SHRA. DEVELOPING UPSLOPE AS WINDS BACK FROM EASTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SHRA AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON...WITH MUCH MORE SEASONAL WEATHER
EXPECTED.
AT 12Z WED...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...WITH A CLOSED 850MB AND SFC TROUGH OVER OR NEAR THE ERN CWA
/DEPENDING ON MODEL...BUT THEY ALL HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA/.
PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER MUST OF UPPER MI DUE TO A TROWAL ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW. SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC
PRECIP EXITING THE ERN CWA AROUND OF JUST AFTER 18Z WED. MODELS ARE
ALSO HINTING AT SOME LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C BY 18Z OVER CENTRAL AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THAT THE LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL
LAST TOO LONG AS A SFC AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA
BY 18Z WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 00Z THU.
WED NIGHT LOOKS CHILLY IN MANY SPOTS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT UNDER THE
RIDGING...BUT CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S INLAND TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
THU LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND AN UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS SURGING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NW. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW CHANCE
CATEGORY UNTIL LATE.
EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES A MORE DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS...AND WILL EVEN MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FLOWING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL
EFFECT THE CWA...BUT DETAILS WITH THESE SHORTER WAVE LENGTH SYSTEMS
ARE FAR MORE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. AS LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS...850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C BY 00Z SAT AND MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE
THEY WILL STAY AROUND THAT TEMP THROUGH SAT...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON
IF/WHEN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CAN DRAG REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR
INTO THE CWA. MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WERE A FEW DEGREES COLDER BY
SAT...BUT THAT WAS BECAUSE THEY HAD THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER ENERGY
MOVING IN FASTER. STILL THINK THAT THE QUICKER ENTRANCE OF THE
COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF THAT ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST IS LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT MODELS RUNS ARE INSTEAD SLOWER
WITH THE COLD AIR...BRINGING -5C TO -7C 850MB TEMPS OVERHEAD SUN
INTO MON. THIS WOULD LEAD TO PURE LAKE EFFECT GIVEN LAKE SFC TEMPS
OF 9C TO 13C. PTYPE IS ALSO COMPLEX AND DEPENDENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER TEMPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SNOW WILL MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NIGHT WHEN NEAR SFC TEMPS ARE COOLER. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S SHOULD KEEP PRECIP MORE AS RAIN...OR
AT LEAST MELT ANY SNOW AS IT FALLS. STILL UNCERTAIN WITH A LOT OF
SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER IS DEFINITELY IN
STORE FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW WILL FALL TO MVFR...THEN
IFR TODAY. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER FURTHER TO LIFR...
ESPECIALLY AT KIWD/KSAW AS WINDS BACK TO A MORE DIRECT NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE DIRECTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LOW PRES OVER SE SD WILL MOVE E...CROSSING SRN AND ERN UPPER MI
TONIGHT AND REACHING QUEBEC WED NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...EXPECT E
TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN OCNL
GALE FORCE WINDS WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED. OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
15-25KT. AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE AREA AND WINDS BACK NORTHERLY...
20-30KT WINDS WILL SHIFT E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH W TO E WED/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER E
AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE AOB 20KT THU/FRI. AS INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY DISTURBANCES DROP ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
645 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AH...THE JOYS OF SKY COVER FORECASTING AS FAST-MOVING...ALTERNATING
LOBES OF CLOUDS/CLEARING ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND A DEPARTING
LOW. JUST SINCE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED 2 HOURS
AGO...WHAT HAD BEEN A NEARLY SOLID DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA HAS MOVED OUT/SCATTERED OUT...MEANING
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOW LOOKING TO AT LEAST START THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SIDE...EXCEPT FOR A BIT
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE BRUSHING UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN EDGES.
SHORT TERM LOW CLOUD PROGS SUCH AS FROM THE HRRR ARE STILL
SUGGESTING THAT STRATUS WILL FILL BACK INTO AT LEAST THE MAJORITY
OF NEB ZONES FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH YET THIS MORNING...WITH KS ZONES
STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WITH VERY LITTLE RISK OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE CWA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EVEN THAT ONLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN-MOST FRINGES...THE MAIN CONCERNS TURN TO STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLE
IF NOT LIKELY FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. WILL STATE OFF THE
TOP...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
NOW...AND WILL DEFER TO NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
LOW TEMPS/CLOUD TRENDS TO HOPEFULLY RAISE CONFIDENCE IN A
POTENTIAL HEADLINE. THIS ALSO ALLOWS THE WIND ADVISORY TO TAKE
CENTER STAGE FOR THE TIME BEING...AS THE WIND CONCERNS COME FIRST.
08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A BRISK MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...A SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE AVERAGING 15-25
MPH EXCEPT FOR SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SPEEDS IN THE FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THESE WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEPARTING 1004 MILLIBAR LOW CENTERED NEAR SIOUX
FALLS...AND A 1033MB HIGH CENTERED OVER MT. IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA HIGHLIGHT
THE VIGOROUS...NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
OVER EASTERN SD...WHILE A LARGE-SCALE BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE
CARVED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS...BOUNDED ON
THE SOUTH BY A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL JET CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS FROM
NM TO IA. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOWS SUCH AS
THIS...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS
ROUGHLY BISECTED BY A RATHER SOLID BATCH OF LOW STRATUS CENTERED
AROUND 2500 FT AGL...WITH AREAS GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A KEARNEY-
GENEVA LINE UNDER THESE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHILE ALMOST
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. DESPITE THESE TWO DISTINCT CLOUD REGIMES...STRONGER WINDS
ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES REASONABLY UNIFORM...WITH MOST AREAS
ANTICIPATED TO BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 38-44 DEGREES.
TURNING TO THE DAYTIME FORECAST...NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE EVOLUTION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD FIELD WILL LIKELY PROVE CHALLENGING FOR
SHORT TERM SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS. BUT STARTING WITH THE BIG
PICTURE ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF
THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS WILL GRADUALLY REACH THE
MN/WI BORDER BY SUNSET...AS TRAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IT IS
NOW...BUT EASING UP VERY SLOWLY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
GIVEN THE QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE THIS
MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE ANOTHER NOTCH ONCE
DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MIXING UP TO AT LEAST 850MB...WHERE THERE WILL RESIDE 25-45 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAXIMUM THAT ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE NET RESULT...BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE...IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35+ MPH ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 STAND A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF BREACHING 30 MPH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND
APPROACHING 45 MPH GUSTS ON A SEMI-REGULAR BASIS...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN MID-MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE 7 COUNTIES RUNNING FROM 10AM-
5PM...WHICH MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL WITH A PRE-EXISTING ADVISORY
ISSUED BY WFO LBF. TURNING TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF TODAYS
FORECAST...SKY COVER TRENDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE. WHILE SOME MODELS
MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST GRADIENT AS
CURRENTLY SEEN...THE CONSENSUS OF SHORTER TERM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY/CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THAT
EVENTUALLY LOW STRATUS WILL PIVOT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AND
PROVIDE A RATHER CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TO MOST ALL NEB
ZONES...WHILE LEAVING KS ZONES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IN
ADDITION...THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/SATURATION
EVIDENT AROUND 700MB IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH THINK ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN RISK WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA...DID INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES GENERALLY NORTH OF AN ORD-GENOA LINE.
ALTHOUGH TODAY WAS NEVER FORECAST TO BE VERY WARM...OBVIOUSLY THE
PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS COULD EASILY SHAVE A FEW MORE
DEGREES OFF FORECAST HIGHS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...NUDGED DOWN HIGHS
VERY SLIGHTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND POTENTIALLY NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S NORTH...NEAR 50
CENTRAL AND MID-UPPER 50S IN KS ZONES.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
SKY COVER AND THE RESULTANT EFFECTS ON LOW TEMPS/FROST FORMATION
LEAVES SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED FOR BEING ONLY 12-24 HOURS AWAY. IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFT EASTWARD...BUT AS IT DOES SO A TRAILING...HIGHLY
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE HEART
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PHASED SOMEWHAT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD STILL HOLD UP AT LEAST
5-10 MPH EVEN THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...AND CLOSER TO
15 MPH EARLIER IN THE EVENING ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. LEANING TOWARD
THE 06Z NAM RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS...ALTHOUGH THE NIGHT COULD
VERY WELL START OUT CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY OVER NEB
ZONES...A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...ESPECIALLY REGARDING ANY LOWER STRATUS...ALTHOUGH THE
PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ARGUES THAT AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ALSO BE LURKING AROUND.
ALTHOUGH AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE RAIN...ALSO LINGERED THE
SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. ASSUMING THAT SKIES AT LEAST AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY
CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY...AND
THUS MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS LOWS...WHICH RANGE FROM AROUND
30-32 IN THE FAR WEST...UP TO 35-36 IN THE EAST. EVEN IF THESE
LOWS ARE REALIZED...BREEZES COULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FROST FORMATION...EXCEPT IN TYPICAL LOWER
ELEVATION/SHELTERED AREAS. IN ADDITION TO A POSSIBLE UPCOMING
FROST ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...A FEW FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
SUCH AS DAWSON/FURNAS MAY BE CANDIDATES FOR A FREEZE WARNING...AND
AGAIN WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHIFTS TO GET THE BALL ROLLING ON THESE
POSSIBLE HEADLINES. PLEASE NOTE HOWEVER...THAT DUE TO EARLIER
FREEZES ON OCT. 7TH AND/OR OCT. 13TH...VALLEY AND GREELEY
COUNTIES IN OUR FAR NORTH WILL NO LONGER BE INCLUDED IN ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS CYCLE INCLUDE FROST CHANCES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY.
CHECKING THE BIG PICTURE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL MODELS IN
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEST SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...AND THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING
FROM B.C. CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...WE SHOULD
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SET UP SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE ONE CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROST
FORMATION. THE SET UP LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR FROST AT LEAST FOR THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...UNLESS WE HAVE A THICK OVERCAST LAYER OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT. ALREADY
HAVE PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS.
BY FRIDAY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN PLACING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE EC HAVE SHOWN A DECENT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. STILL WAITING FOR THE MOST RECENT
RUN OF THE EC AS IT HAS BEEN DELAYED A BIT...BUT OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM ALSO SHOW THIS PATTERN. REGARDING THE SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY...THE OLD EC WAS THE MOST ROBUST IN PRODUCING
QPF...ALL THE WAY FROM CENTRAL NEB DOWN INTO TEXAS...WHILE THE GFS
KEPT MOST OF IT SOUTH OF NEB...AND THE GEM IS EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THAT. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT POPS ARE STILL JUSTIFIED
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WILL PUT HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTH AND
TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES...12Z EC HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE CWA. WILL CHECK LATEST RUN
OF EC IF IT COMES IN BEFORE IT IS TIME TO SEND OUT THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE SEVERAL MODELS AGREE THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID.
ON AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. STILL WE HAVE MADE IT PAST THE AVERAGE FIRST FROST
DATE FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY AT LEAST A WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES INVOLVE STRONG SURFACE WINDS MAINLY DURING
THE FIRST 12 HOURS...AND CHALLENGING CEILING TRENDS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST 15 HOURS...INVOLVING NOT ONLY CLOUD COVERAGE BUT
ALSO WHETHER HEIGHTS WILL BE LOW-END VFR OR HIGHER-MVFR LEVELS.
STARTING OUT THIS MORNING...KGRI IS LOCATED IN A HIGHLY VARIABLE
CLOUD COVERAGE REGIME...ALTERNATING BETWEEN CLEAR/SCATTERED AND A
BROKEN CEILING WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET EITHER SIDE OF THE
VFR/MVFR BREAK-POINT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ON THE SHAKY
SIDE...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR HIGH-END MVFR CEILING TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF THIS MORNING...AND HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE
DAY AND LIKELY AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND
POSSIBLY LONGER. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN THEME FROM
PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR CLEARING BY 03Z
TONIGHT...BUT SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
LONGER THAN THIS. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...THEY WILL MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT DIRECTION NEAR 300-320 DEGREES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED
VALUES AROUND 24KT AND GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST 34KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY THIS EVENING...AND SETTLING
DOWN TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS 10KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
ALTHOUGH LONGER TERM DROUGHT ISSUES STILL REMAIN...THE LAST 3
WEEKS HAVE BROUGHT SEVERAL INCHES OF BENEFICIAL RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
RECENT 1-2 CATEGORY IMPROVEMENTS PER THE WEEKLY U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR. AS FOR THE RAINFALL EVENT FROM MONDAY THE 14TH...A FEW
QUICK NOTES REGARDING OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES...
GRAND ISLAND...SET A NEW OCT. 14 DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD WITH
1.36 INCHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE RERGRI PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.
HASTINGS...ALTHOUGH THE 0.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON THE 14TH WAS NOT A
DAILY RECORD...IT DID BOOST THE MONTH-TO-DATE TOTAL TO 4.65
INCHES. THIS NOW PLACES OCT. 2013 AS THE 3RD-WETTEST OCTOBER ON
RECORD DATING BACK 118 YEARS TO 1985. INTERESTINGLY...3 OF THE
TOP 5 WETTEST OCTOBERS HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN WITH PAST 7
YEARS...WITH THE TOP-5 AS FOLLOWS:
1) 6.16 INCHES IN 2008
2) 5.82 INCHES IN 1897
3) 4.65 INCHES IN 2013 (SO FAR)
4) 4.56 INCHES IN 1968
5) 4.32 INCHES IN 2007
PLEASE NOTE THAT HASTINGS PRECIPITATION RECORDS ARE BASED ON NWS
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTS (HASTINGS 4N) BETWEEN THE YEARS OF
1895 AND MARCH 1998...WITH RECORDS SINCE APRIL 1998 FROM THE
AUTOMATED SENSOR AT HASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1036 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN STALL IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS LATE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL GET SHOVED TO OUR SOUTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...THE PAST WEEK HAS BEEN ONE OF THE CLOUDIEST
PERIODS OF FALL WEATHER I HAVE SEEN IN MY 10+ YEARS OF LIVING IN
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF CHANGE COMING TOMORROW. THROUGH
TODAY...COMPACT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 32N/72.5W IS
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS PRODUCING
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS REGION IS
PROVIDING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH STILL
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO 2800 FT WITH
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING ALOFT WITHIN A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. AMONG ALL
THE RECENT MODELS ONLY THE 06Z NAM AND 12Z RUC SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CURRENTLY OBSERVED CLOUD/MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION...AND
THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE BASIS FOR MY MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG IN THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE WE MAY GO ONE
MORE DAY WITH NO SUNSHINE. (SIGH...) WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 SKIES
ARE CURRENTLY SUNNY...BUT EVEN HERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BEND A
BIT MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ADVECTING SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
I HAVE MADE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE WILMINGTON AREA WITH 72-74 DEGREES NOW EXPECTED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES HERE. ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND UP INTO
WHITEVILLE AND ELIZABETHTOWN WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S. AND FARTHER INLAND FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST ENOUGH SUNSHINE SHOULD EXIST TO PUSH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING UP FROM THE
GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST MAKING ITS WAY OFF SHORE
BY THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW
ENGLAND WEAKENS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST FINALLY FADES
AWAY. THIS WILL FINALLY BREAK US OUT OF THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WED INTO THURS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND
PROVIDE SOME WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES...THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AND THEREFORE SHOULD SEE SOME AC/CIRRUS STREAMING IN ON
WED AND THURS. THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ON WED.
THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS A MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
LATE THURS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT BY WED
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE PCP WILL NOT BE A FACTOR UNTIL THURS AND A
STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY AID IN KEEPING
QPF LOWER BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO PRODUCE
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THURS. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE
FROM DOWN NEAR 1.25 INCHES ON WED UP TO 1.75 INCHES BY LATE THURS.
A WARMER RETURN FLOW ON THURS WILL PUSH TEMPS UP AROUND 80 OR SO
ON THURS AND CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THURS WITH READINGS AROUND 60 OR SO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BE JUST ALONG THE COAST FRI MORNING. THE MID
TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
BAHAMAS WILL HOLD UP THE PROGRESSION OF TROUGH FROM THE NORTH AND
WILL MAINTAIN MORE OF A W-SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THEREFORE IT WILL NOT GET A GOOD
PUSH OFF SHORE. REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR COAST.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO INLAND NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA AREAS...BUT LOCAL AREA MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
COMPLETELY ON FRI IN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT BY SATURDAY
COMBINING WITH MORE FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. SHALLOW
COOL AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BUT TOUGH TO SAY HOW
FAR SOUTHEAST IT WILL PENETRATE AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE
SW BY SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GRADIENT OF COOLER TO WARMER TEMPS
RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO
THE 70S ON FRI BUT BACK UP TO THE 80S ON SATURDAY AS FRONT BUCKLES
UP.
BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS OR BELOW WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 70 MOST PLACES
BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW CEILINGS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...RIGHT AT THE MVFR/IFR CUTOFF POINT. LOOKS LIKE THE
INLAND TERMINALS WILL STAY SCATTERED TODAY...OTHER THAN
INTERMITTENTLY BROKEN FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST LIFTS TO A STRATA CU CEILING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. TONIGHT...A STRATA CU
CEILING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...BASED ON THE TIME HEIGHT. CEILINGS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR...CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A PASSING COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32N/72.5W HAS ALMOST A
MINI-TROPICAL CYCLONE LOOK TO IT DESPITE ONLY INTERMITTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTER. REGARDLESS...A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW CONTINUES TO BRING NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. FORTUNATELY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS INLAND
LATER TODAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD
RELAX...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.
SEAS MEASURED AT AREA BUOYS ARE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS INDICATED...WITH UP TO A TWO-FOOT FORECAST-TO-OBS
DIFFERENCE NOTED AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY (41013) AND
NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH (41110) BUOYS. I JUST RE-RAN THE LOCAL
SWAN WAVE MODEL WITH UPDATED WINDS TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW SEAS
SHOULD RESPOND INTO TONIGHT...AND IT SEEMS TO MODEL THE OBSERVED
DOWNWARD TREND IN SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS QUITE WELL. I
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE MYRTLE BEACH COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...AND ROLLED BACK THE ENDING TIME FOR THE NC WATERS TO
18Z...MATCHING THE EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE GEORGETOWN-AREA WATERS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW
ENGLAND WEAKENS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST FINALLY FADES
AWAY. THIS WILL BREAK US OUT OF THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW
ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH WED
INTO THURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH A LIGHT W TO
SW FLOW BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES. SEAS WILL DECREASE THROUGH WED AS
FLOW BACKS FROM THE NORTH TO THE W-SW. SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 3 FT
BY LATE WED INTO THURS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY
BUT WILL GET HUNG UP OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE WINDS
SHOULD VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND FRONT BUT
REMAINING LIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BUCKLE WITH WINDS COMING BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONGER PUSH OF
NORTHERLY WINDS REACHES THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD KEEPING SEAS AT BAY IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM 6 AM UNTIL 9 AM. THE TIDE GAUGE ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON WAS MEASURING A TIDAL
DEPARTURE OF ABOUT A FOOT. THE EVE HIGH TIDE DID EXCEED FLOOD STAGE
AND WE AGAIN EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH
THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REACH 5.7 FT MLLW
AROUND SUNRISE. WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS
AT THE BEACHES WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
ALTHOUGH ACTION STAGES WILL LIKELY BE EXCEEDED...THE GAUGES AT THE
BEACHES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
HIGH TIDE AT THE BEACHES IS AROUND 5 AM AND 5 PM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DRIFTING NORTHEAST. A
SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR MAY SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAINFALL TODAY AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THESE AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION FROM 2 KFT TO ALMOST 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THIS DRY SLOT BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON
THESE AREAS WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE. PLAN ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES IN. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LINKING UP
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN LINGERS OVER THE
AREA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PLAN ON LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. PLAN ON DECREASING CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. LOW
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER HUDSONS BAY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AND SETS UP A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR STARTS TO
INVADE THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 0 TO -2C RANGE FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH
THEN DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY
THEN DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT TIMES
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -4C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM -8C OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND -2C ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HAVE INCLUDED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I94 DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
A SFC LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY EASTWARD TODAY...MOVING OVER NORTHEAST WI BY
03Z. BAND OF THERMODYNAMICALLY/FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PCPN HAS
ALREADY CLEARED KRST...AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF KLSE BY 12Z. OBS
AND FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS A
FEW HOURS POST THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN BAND...WITH MOSTLY 1-2 KFT
CIGS. SOME MINOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THROUGH THE LAYER COULD RESULT
IN SPOTTY -DZ/-SHRA...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THOSE CHANCES TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON KRST
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND KLSE BETWEEN 03-06Z. THE SYSTEM/S
DEFORMATION REGION WILL SLIP ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN CIGS AND SOME -SHRA AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRST. COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VERY PROGRESSIVE MID LATITUDE PATTERN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA WITH TWO MAJOR MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN STATES THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, A TROUGH HAS BEEN CUT
OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FORCING THE GULF RIDGE TO EXPAND EAST AND THE ATLANTIC TROUGH GETS
PINCHED OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS. THE ATLANTIC TROUGH HAS
IN TURN, INDUCED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IN THE
VICINITY OF NASSAU AND ANDROS ISLAND. THIS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING TO THE WEST IN AN
OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE AREA SURROUNDING
SOUTH FLORIDA. I MENTION ALL OF THIS AS THE NAM HAS CAPTURED THIS
SURFACE FEATURE MORE SO THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF FOR THAT MATTER.
THE PROBLEM FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PERIOD OR TWO WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IS HOW MUCH AFFECT THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA.
THERE ALREADY ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH A COUNTERCLOCKWISE MOVEMENT TO THEM AROUND THE LOWER
PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THE NAM IS NOTED FOR SUFFERING FROM MESOSCALE
BIAS BUT SOMETIMES PICKS UP ON THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH ITS
FINER RESOLUTION BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR ALSO SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT. FOR ALL OF
THESE REASONS, WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED POPS FOR THE THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE BIAS WILL NOT GO AS
BULLISH AS THE MET GUIDANCE BUT WILL CERTAINLY GO ABOVE THE MAV
NUMBERS.
THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES HIGH MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOWING PWAT IN THE RANGE OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES. THIS IS
NO DOUBT IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN A
SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL REDUCE THE POPS CLOSER TO
THE MAV GUIDANCE BUT AGAIN THE MAV MIGHT BE TOO LOW.
ON A SIDE NOTE, THIS IS THE TIME OF THE YEAR OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES AND THE HIGHEST TIDES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE PEAKING
BETWEEN THIS EVENING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS ALSO
COINCIDES WITH THE FULL MOON WHICH IS TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL
THEREFORE BE AN INCREASE IN SOME NUISANCE TYPE URBAN STREET FLOODING
AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS POSSIBLY INTO THE
EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS SUCH AS MIAMI
BEACH. THE HIGH TIDES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WILL BE OCCURRING
IN THE EVENING AND AGAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE GULF RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON, A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTH GULF COASTAL STATES EARLY FRIDAY, WILL STALL AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING LOW. BUT STILL, THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING.
LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS WEDNESDAY COULD SLIGHTLY
INCREASE THE SHRA COVERAGE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS SPREADING ASHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC COULD LEAD
TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR BRIEF PERIODS THROUGH THE MID-MORNING PERIOD
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME...PATCHY
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN APF AND THE LAKE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
4 FEET OR LESS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING SPREADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 87 73 87 / 20 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 85 74 85 / 30 30 20 20
MIAMI 74 86 75 87 / 30 30 20 20
NAPLES 71 88 72 88 / - 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
341 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MEANDERING ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...ABOUT 30-35 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR
THE TONIGHT PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING A NUMBER
OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WITH BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING...NONE OF
WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDING CLOUD TRENDS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. RAP
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE FROM THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT...KEEPING VERY LITTLE MOISTURE BENEATH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT HAS
TAKEN PLACE TODAY...THE RAP MAY VERY WELL BE ONTO SOMETHING. PLAN
TO GO WITH A SOMEWHAT MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD APPROACH SHOWING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE. NUDGED LOWS CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER
ZONAL...SO HEIGHTS WILL NOT CHANGE DRASTICALLY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN-FREE ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE/THICKEN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 OR
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12Z MODELS
HAVE SHOWN WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES...SO BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL BE IN THE UPPER LOW TO MID 60S...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE ZONAL FLOW AND LACK OF DYNAMICS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS LIKELY.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE RETURN FLOW.
SOUNDING SHOW MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THEN...THE FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST. IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO VERY LITTLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY BE COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
REMAIN ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
GOING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME
MONDAY...WITH THE CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY THINNING WITH TIME. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ONCE CLOUDS LIFT BY 20-22Z. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND
FOG LATE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN VFR FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT WILL TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE SEAS DROP BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN FORCE
THERE THROUGH 9 PM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL JUST INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY...GENERALLY MAINTAINING THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS
SHOULD VEER NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 4 PM UNTIL 9 PM FOR
ALL COASTAL ZONES...INCLUDING TIDAL BERKELEY. LATEST EXTRATROPICAL
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOLID ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED MOST PLACES WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. EXPECT TIDES TO
PEAK 7.3 TO 7.5 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND 9.1 TO 9.4 FT
MLLW AT FORT PULASKI. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT LEVELS COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER...BUT WILL FINALIZE THESE NUMBERS WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.
TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK...LIKELY RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE. TIDE LEVELS ARE ELEVATED INITIALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT EVEN AS THOSE WINDS BECOME LESS OF A
FACTOR LATER IN THE WEEK THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES OF THE UPCOMING
FULL MOON BECOME AN ISSUE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ048>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST/BDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
113 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN ALOFT AND CLOUDS ARE BREAKING
ACCORDINGLY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SKIES MAY CLOUD BACK UP
A BIT AS CUMULUS DEVELOPS...BUT A GENERAL DECREASING TREND WILL
OCCUR. CLOUD COVER HAS HAMPERED THERMAL RISES...SO NUDGES HIGH
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LAV
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT
MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT UPON THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD BE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE. FOR NOW WE WENT MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND WITH LOWER/MID 60S AT THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHERE CLOUD COVER IS LOWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN-FREE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE/THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. A RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
COAST.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THEN...THE FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST. IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT
79-84.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY BE COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
REMAIN ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
GOING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME
MONDAY...WITH THE CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY THINNING WITH TIME. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ONCE CLOUDS LIFT BY 20-22Z. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND
FOG LATE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN VFR FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRETTY POOR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW-
LEVEL JETTING SUBSIDE. CANCELLED FLAGS FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
NEARSHORE ZONES AND EXTENDED FOR THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS
GIVEN 41008 IS STILL GUSTING OVER 25 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 7 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED. THE FRONT THEN APPEARS TO STALL JUST INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY...GENERALLY MAINTAINING THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS
SHOULD VEER NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 4 PM UNTIL 9 PM FOR
ALL COASTAL ZONES...INCLUDING TIDAL BERKELEY. LATEST EXTRATROPICAL
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOLID ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED MOST PLACES WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. EXPECT TIDES TO
PEAK 7.3 TO 7.5 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND 9.1 TO 9.4 FT
MLLW AT FORT PULASKI. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT LEVELS COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER...BUT WILL FINALIZE THESE NUMBERS WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.
TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK...LIKELY RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE. TIDE LEVELS ARE ELEVATED INITIALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT EVEN AS THOSE WINDS BECOME LESS OF A
FACTOR LATER IN THE WEEK THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES OF THE UPCOMING
FULL MOON BECOME AN ISSUE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ048>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
136 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVENING FOR THAT MATTER. CURRENT OBS DO NOT INDICATE ANY LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DECREASING
INSTABILITY SO BELIEVE THE TREND WILL CONTINUE.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS OF MID MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY
CROSSING THE WABASH RIVER INTO THE STATE SHORTLY BEFORE 14Z. TEMPS
WERE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 50S AS OF MID MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE ONSET OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A FEW HOURS QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. APPEARS A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE FRONT IS
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE EXTENSIVE EASTWARD PUSH TO THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THIS AREA OF LIFT WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND BUMPS INTO
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT...WITH
HIGHER POPS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z
WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.
NUMEROUS FEATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE STATE AS A CHANGE IN AIR
MASS TAKES PLACE. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED WET BULB TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP.
ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID THE PASSING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AMID WEAK FORCING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS POPS AS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AND TREND POPS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE FORECAST COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY...AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO WORK
IN ON WEST WINDS. AS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE
3 HOURLY VALUES.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GFS AND NAM DEPICT YET ANOTHER
LARGE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN RATHER DRY AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREAS HAS
BEEN SWEPT EAST WITH THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS...DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATE...FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCLUDE SOME CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS
THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASS.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINS PREVALENT IN THE
VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH LOWS
NEAR MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN PICKING OUT TIMING OF
VARIOUS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY OF THE THESE HAVE TO THE POTENTIAL
TO GENERATE A FEW COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS MODELS HAVE ISSUES WITH TIMING OF THESE POTENTIAL
WEATHER MAKERS. USUALLY...ENSEMBLES ARE THE WAY TO GO WITH FAST FLOW
ALOFT...AND CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO DO ANYMORE THAN TINKERING WITH THE
REGIONAL ALLBLEND. THUS...WILL INCLUDE SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN PROLONGED EARLY NOVEMBER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONES PER REGIONAL ALLBLEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR OR MORE LIKELY IFR
AFTER 20Z IN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH LAF AFTER 06Z AND IND AND BMG AFTER 08Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM 180-210 DEGREES TO 250 TO 270 DEGREES AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A BROKEN VFR CU DECK BUILDING BACK IN
AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN/LEE
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1251 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVENING FOR THAT MATTER. CURRENT OBS DO NOT INDICATE ANY LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DECREASING
INSTABILITY SO BELIEVE THE TREND WILL CONTINUE.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS OF MID MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY
CROSSING THE WABASH RIVER INTO THE STATE SHORTLY BEFORE 14Z. TEMPS
WERE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 50S AS OF MID MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE ONSET OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A FEW HOURS QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. APPEARS A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE FRONT IS
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE EXTENSIVE EASTWARD PUSH TO THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THIS AREA OF LIFT WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND BUMPS INTO
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT...WITH
HIGHER POPS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z
WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.
NUMEROUS FEATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE STATE AS A CHANGE IN AIR
MASS TAKES PLACE. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED WET BULB TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP.
ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID THE PASSING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AMID WEAK FORCING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS POPS AS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AND TREND POPS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE FORECAST COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY...AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO WORK
IN ON WEST WINDS. AS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE
3 HOURLY VALUES.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GFS AND NAM DEPICT YET ANOTHER
LARGE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN RATHER DRY AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREAS HAS
BEEN SWEPT EAST WITH THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS...DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATE...FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCLUDE SOME CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS
THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASS.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINS PREVALENT IN THE
VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH LOWS
NEAR MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THUS A CONTINUATION THE COOLEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH OUT OF THE 50S
SOME DAYS AND LOWS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER
30S MOST NIGHTS.
ONE OR MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED BACK INITIALIZED POPS TO FOCUS ON THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
THIS TO OCCUR...WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SEVERAL
TIMES AS THESE FEATURES ARE SUBTLE AND TYPICALLY POORLY HANDLED BY
MODELS.
IN GENERAL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN ABRUPT INTRODUCTION TO
MUCH MORE AUTUMN LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR OR MORE LIKELY IFR
AFTER 20Z IN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH LAF AFTER 06Z AND IND AND BMG AFTER 08Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM 180-210 DEGREES TO 250 TO 270 DEGREES AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A BROKEN VFR CU DECK BUILDING BACK IN
AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN/LEE
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1245 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS OF MID MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY
CROSSING THE WABASH RIVER INTO THE STATE SHORTLY BEFORE 14Z. TEMPS
WERE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 50S AS OF MID MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE ONSET OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A FEW HOURS QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. APPEARS A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE FRONT IS
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE EXTENSIVE EASTWARD PUSH TO THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THIS AREA OF LIFT WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND BUMPS INTO
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT...WITH
HIGHER POPS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z
WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.
NUMEROUS FEATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE STATE AS A CHANGE IN AIR
MASS TAKES PLACE. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED WET BULB TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP.
ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID THE PASSING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AMID WEAK FORCING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS POPS AS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AND TREND POPS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE FORECAST COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY...AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO WORK
IN ON WEST WINDS. AS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE
3 HOURLY VALUES.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GFS AND NAM DEPICT YET ANOTHER
LARGE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN RATHER DRY AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREAS HAS
BEEN SWEPT EAST WITH THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS...DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATE...FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCLUDE SOME CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS
THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASS.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINS PREVALENT IN THE
VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH LOWS
NEAR MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THUS A CONTINUATION THE COOLEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH OUT OF THE 50S
SOME DAYS AND LOWS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER
30S MOST NIGHTS.
ONE OR MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED BACK INITIALIZED POPS TO FOCUS ON THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
THIS TO OCCUR...WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SEVERAL
TIMES AS THESE FEATURES ARE SUBTLE AND TYPICALLY POORLY HANDLED BY
MODELS.
IN GENERAL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN ABRUPT INTRODUCTION TO
MUCH MORE AUTUMN LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR OR MORE LIKELY IFR
AFTER 20Z IN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH LAF AFTER 06Z AND IND AND BMG AFTER 08Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM 180-210 DEGREES TO 250 TO 270 DEGREES AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A BROKEN VFR CU DECK BUILDING BACK IN
AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
318 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2013
...UPDATED THE LONG TERM ...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
To start off with, I deliberated over low temperatures quite a bit
for tonight, and the resultant freeze and frost hazards. Model
guidance varies quite a bit, and this difference seems to be
centered around how fast some mid and high clouds will intrude.
Have settled upon using the HRRR and RUC models, which are a bit
cooler than then NAM, ECMWF, and GFS models. In the end, there
could be a small area that freezes tonight in our northwest zones,
namely Trego, Ellis, Scott, Lane and Ness counties, where a freeze
warning will be posted from 4 am to 9 am CDT. The 32F degree mark
may be tricky in Scott county, if the mid level clouds get there
before the diurnal cooling off occurs, they may hit 33F or 34F very
briefly around 09-10Z. To the south, surrounding the Freeze
Warning, mid 30s seem likely and a frost advisory is in place from 4
am to 9 am CDT, with widespread frost mentioned. Even one more tier
of counties southward will have patchy frost mentioned late, but
without an advisory. Down along most of the Oklahoma state
boundary, clouds will be entering there sooner, and thus lows in the
upper 30s will extend along most of that stretch.
An upper wave, open in nature, will cross from New Mexico into
southeast Kansas on Wednesday. The upper synoptic lift may be just
enough to kick off a few rain showers across our southern half of
the CWA, but only slight chances seem justified since no surface
boundary is present, and the lower layers will be cool. With
clouds, some scattered showers, and cold air advection, max temps
will struggle to get out of the 50s. Current forecast max temps
range from 57F in Syracuse, to 60F in Medicine Lodge. I did not
change the forecast highs, as they seemed reasonable. The other
weather parameter worth noting is winds will not be too strong, as
they have been of late. The high pressure will produce northwest
winds around 10 mph in the morning, which will shift to the west by
afternoon, still blow in the 10 to 15 mph range.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
Relatively dry and sunny conditions are expected Thursday due to
transient mid level shortwave ridging. Cold temperatures in the mid
to upper 30`s are most likely during the morning while abundant
insolation should allow warming into the 60`s by early afternoon.
a sharp mid to upper level baroclinic zone associated with a
strongly positively tilted trough and 300 mb level polar will jet
have create sensible weather impacts for Friday. As the upper trough
approaches and sharpens by Friday morning, the mid level baroclinic
zone will strengthen causing frontogenesis and associated lift
ageostrophic lifting. GFS is very similar to the ECMWF with respect to most
mass fields with this system, and shows a continuously sloping
intense frontogenetic profile from above 850 mb level near medicine
lodge to near 500 mb across NW Kansas. This cold system aloft
appears warm enough in the boundary layer to expect phase change to
all rain at the surface. GFS and GEM are the coldest of the models,
only allowing for temperatures to reach the upper 40`s across
western Kansas by the afternoon.
Precipitation chances have been increased to the likely category for
Friday morning with a rapid tapering in the afternoon as the upper
trough transitions to a subsident northwest flow across central
Kansas by Friday night. Saturday morning will have potential to be
cold again (even with frost) if winds and clearing conditions are
favorable, but yet uncertain considering it is still at a 96 hour
forecast timestep.
The remainder of the forecast period through early next week is for
and only slowly moderating surface temperatures toward normal for
mid October, as northwest flow aloft becomes established aloft and
high pressure dominates the central Rockies into the southern
plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
High pressure over Wyoming will build southeastward and be over
western Kansas by midnight. Northwest winds will be breezy at
20g29kt this afternoon, then become at less than 10kt after 00z. a
few high clouds will start streaming in from the southwest later
tonight, as an open wave moves in. Clouds should be cirrus to
begin with, but will likely form cigs at or below ovc100 at KDDC
and KGCK toward 09z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 58 38 65 / 0 20 10 10
GCK 34 58 35 64 / 0 20 10 10
EHA 36 57 37 64 / 10 30 0 10
LBL 36 58 37 66 / 10 30 0 10
HYS 32 59 37 63 / 0 10 10 10
P28 38 60 40 67 / 0 20 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
Wednesday FOR KSZ046-061>064.
FREEZE WARNING from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ030-031-
043>045.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
156 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2013
...Updated for the short term forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
To start off with, I deliberated over low temperatures quite a bit
for tonight, and the resultant freeze and frost hazards. Model
guidance varies quite a bit, and this difference seems to be
centered around how fast some mid and high clouds will intrude.
Have settled upon using the HRRR and RUC models, which are a bit
cooler than then NAM, ECMWF, and GFS models. In the end, there
could be a small area that freezes tonight in our northwest zones,
namely Trego, Ellis, Scott, Lane and Ness counties, where a freeze
warning will be posted from 4 am to 9 am CDT. The 32F degree mark
may be tricky in Scott county, if the mid level clouds get there
before the diurnal cooling off occurs, they may hit 33F or 34F very
briefly around 09-10Z. To the south, surrounding the Freeze
Warning, mid 30s seem likely and a frost advisory is in place from 4
am to 9 am CDT, with widespread frost mentioned. Even one more tier
of counties southward will have patchy frost mentioned late, but
without an advisory. Down along most of the Oklahoma state
boundary, clouds will be entering there sooner, and thus lows in the
upper 30s will extend along most of that stretch.
An upper wave, open in nature, will cross from New Mexico into
southeast Kansas on Wednesday. The upper synoptic lift may be just
enough to kick off a few rain showers across our southern half of
the CWA, but only slight chances seem justified since no surface
boundary is present, and the lower layers will be cool. With
clouds, some scattered showers, and cold air advection, max temps
will struggle to get out of the 50s. Current forecast max temps
range from 57F in Syracuse, to 60F in Medicine Lodge. I did not
change the forecast highs, as they seemed reasonable. The other
weather parameter worth noting is winds will not be too strong, as
they have been of late. The high pressure will produce northwest
winds around 10 mph in the morning, which will shift to the west by
afternoon, still blow in the 10 to 15 mph range.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
Wednesday:
A minor impulse moving at the base of a positively tilted synoptic
trof on Wednesday might be able to initiate a few showers across the
southwest counties during the day. Should not be a heavy precip event
as forecast skew-t/log-p`s show moisture is rooted mainly in lower to
mid levels of the atmosphere. Otherwise, temperatures will be on the
cool side and in the 50sF for highs and 30sF for lows heading into Thursday.
Thursday:
On Thursday, a large open trof encompasses 2/3rds of the CONUS. Low
level temps do increase a few degrees, but we will still be dealing
with a cool airmass. Expect highs in the 60sF with minimums for Friday
a few degrees warmer. No precipitation is expected.
Friday and beyond:
Another upper level wave moves across the region Friday. There is better
upper level dynamics associated with this wave and southwest Kansas
should be on the right entrance region of a 250 hPa jet. This wave will
usher in the passage of a cold front with 850-700 hPa frontogenesis
increasing over the region during the day. Will stick with the weighted
blend solution with chance precipitation probabilities across the area.
Highs will be cooler and back down in the 50sF as precip and cloud cover
lingers. If the ECMWF is right, highs Friday are too warm. Will
tread lightly for now. Beyond Friday, a cool but dry airmass continues.
Temperatures will moderate through the rest of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
High pressure over Wyoming will build southeastward and be over
western Kansas by midnight. Northwest winds will be breezy at
20g29kt this afternoon, then become at less than 10kt after 00z. a
few high clouds will start streaming in from the southwest later
tonight, as an open wave moves in. Clouds should be cirrus to
begin with, but will likely form cigs at or below ovc100 at KDDC
and KGCK toward 09z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 58 38 65 / 0 20 10 10
GCK 34 58 35 64 / 0 20 10 10
EHA 36 57 37 64 / 10 30 0 10
LBL 36 58 37 66 / 10 30 0 10
HYS 32 59 37 63 / 0 10 10 10
P28 38 60 40 67 / 0 20 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
Wednesday FOR KSZ046-061>064.
FREEZE WARNING from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ030-031-
043>045.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
357 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSHING THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1025 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG/JUST
OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. MEANWHILE...1012 MB SFC LOW REMAINS CENTERED
OFF THE NC COAST. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR AND OBS REFLECT THAT
THE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACRS SE VA/NE NC HAVE PUSHED INLAND
AND ARE NOW AFFECTING MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES WHERE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES STILL PREVAIL. IN ADDITION...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALTHOUGH RADAR
RETURNS ARE QUITE WEAK AND THE CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE IS
RATHER LOW SO WILL ONLY CARRY A 20% POP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG/EAST
OF I-95. WENT A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT AS BULK OF
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW STRATUS MAKING IT INTO ALL AREAS (EVEN
THE PIEDMONT). THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL GENLY KEEP FOG FORMATION AT
A MINIMUM BUT STILL WILL LIKELY SEE VSBYS DROP TO 2-4SM OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST TO THE MID
50S ACRS THE FAR WEST (MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MINS IN THE UPPER
50S/AROUND 60F).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT BY DAYBREAK WED WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER
WED/THU AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON WED...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SINCE BOTH THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...DID NOT KEEP IT CLOUDY ALL DAY...GENLY DROPPING SKY COVER
TO BKN CONDITIONS BY AFTN. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW AND POTENTIAL CLOUDS (AND WITH THE
WINDS STAYING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST). THIS YIELDS HIGH MAINLY IN
THE LOWER-MID 70S. A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT KEPT
POPS CAPPED AT 14% AS VIRTUALLY NO FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WED NIGHT/THU MAY OFFSET
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO HAVE SKIES AVG PARTLY CLOUDY
RATHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY E OF I-95. STILL STAYED
COOLER THAN MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR HIGHS THU WHICH ARE GENLY IN THE
80-85 DEGREE RANGE (THINK 75-80 IS MORE LIKELY). BEST CHC FOR
PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR THU NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE FAR NW/N ZONES
WHERE GFS/NAM SHOW THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO QPF AS
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT/DYNAMICS STAY WELL TO OUR N/W. AS FOR POPS WENT
WITH 30-40% CHANCES MOST AREAS...WITH A NARROW ZONE OF 60% POPS
OVER THE FAR N/NW. SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM N TO S FRI MORNING...BUT
THINK THE GFS IS TOO FAST AT SHOWING THIS GIVEN CONTINUED WSW/SW
FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH THAT BUILDS TO THE NORTH MAY NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO EVEN CLEAR OUT FAR SE ZONES FRI BUT WILL GO W/ PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN THERE FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF BUILD A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY KEEPING MOST IF NOT ALL MOISTURE
SOUTH OF FA. THIS HIGH RETREATS OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY ALLOWING
THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE TO DRIFT BACK NORTH A BIT. SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT ALONG AND SOUTH OF VA RT 58
WHERE I KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS. CHILLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
40S EXCEPT 50-55 ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGHS SATURDAY M60S-L70S.
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
COASTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
VACAPES SUNDAY. TSCTNS AND MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SERN ZONES AND A BUFFER ZONE ON SLGHT CHC POPS
FURTHER NW SATURDAY NIGHT. PCPN THEN SHIFTS TO THE SERN ZONES SUNDAY
BEFORE ENDING AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER OFFSHORE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE M40S-M50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY
BUT COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HIGHS BOTH DAYS 65-70. COOLEST
SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER SKIES CLEAR. LOWS U30S NWRN COUNTYS TO L-M50S SERN
COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S TO L50S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ROTATING IN FROM
THE OCEAN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL COVER ALL THE TAF SITES BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH RIC BEING THE LAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE COAST MANY
OF THE CIGS ARE IFR. BELIEVE ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR TO PUSH THE
CLOUDS UP TO MVFR LEVELS AT ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKING
AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM ALL SHOW CIGS LOWERING
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL BRING IFR CIGS BACK TO ALL AIRPORTS
EXCEPT RIC WHICH WILL MAINLY BE MVFR BUT COULD AT TIMES LOWER TO
IFR ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS GIVING LOWER VSBY TONIGHT HOWEVER LOOKING
AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND SREF ALL INDICATE KEEPING VSBY MVFR
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. FINALLY DURING WEDNESDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ALLOW WINDS TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO FROM
THE LAND. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WHICH SHOULD RAISE CIGS TO VFR INLAND AND MVFR ALONG THE COAST.
COULD FINALLY HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BTWN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE
STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
EXTENDED INTO CNTRL VA...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO FINALLY RELAX OVER
THE UPPER AND CNTRL BAY (NE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KT). WAVES
IN THE UPPER BAY HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED AOB 2 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE IN THE LOWER BAY WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT AND WAVES 3 TO 5 FT (HIGHEST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY). SEAS
REMAIN 5-9 FT...HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LOWER BAY ZONE (NEW POINT
COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK) AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND TO EXPIRE AT 4PM
EDT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NE COAST TONIGHT-WED MORNING AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE AOB 15 KT OVER THE WATERS.
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS (THRU EARLY WED
MORNING) AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY (THRU 7PM THIS EVENING) FOR
SEAS/WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TOMORROW...WITH
N-NE WINDS VEERING TO THE S-SW LATE WED-WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURS...BEFORE CROSSING THE WATERS LATE
THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...BUT STRONGEST WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE
WATER. DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS PRE-FRONTAL THURS
NIGHT...BUT MAY REACH SCA CONDS POST FRONTAL EARLY FRI MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN OVER THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...ALLOWING TIDAL ANOMALIES TO
DIMINISH AOB 1 FT. REPLACED ALL ADVISORIES WITH STATEMENTS FOR THIS
EVENINGS/TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLES AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SEWELLS POINT WILL REACH MINOR THRESHOLDS (JUST OVER 4.6 FT
MLLW)...BUT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. DROPPED HEADLINES
FOR THE UPPER JAMES AS ANOMALIES HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND HALF A
FOOT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR THE BAY SIDE OF THE
MD ERN SHORE AS ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE HALF FOOT. HIGH TIDAL
ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AIDED BY
CONTINUED NE FLOW AND A FULL MOON BUT LATEST DATA SUGGESTS WATER
LEVELS WILL FALL SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. SEE CFWAKQ FOR
MORE SITE- SPECIFIC TIDAL INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
158 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE JUST SENT TO BRING CLOUDS A BIT FARTHER INLAND THIS
AFTN...SKIES AVG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY ACRS THE FAR NW...CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER 18Z FROM ABOUT AVC TO RIC TO XSA ON SOUTH AND
EAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 EAST TO THE LWR 70S WEST.
PREV DISC...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
QUEBEC...PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST TO NOVIA SCOTIA AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...1012 MB SFC LOW REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE
NC/SC COAST. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR AND OBS REFLECT CONTINUED
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC AS WELL AS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAIL FARTHER INLAND WHERE EARLIER LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IS NOW
DISSIPATING. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED PER LATEST CONDITIONS...STILL
LOOKING LIKE A DAMP/BREEZY/MAINLY CLOUDY DAY ACRS THE FAR SE SO
HAVE TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...GENLY AT OR JUST
ABOVE 70 F. HIGHS WILL AVG IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FARTHER INLAND
WHERE SKIES AVG OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH MOST OF THE
REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM...WITH SFC
WINDS BECMG SSW IN THE AFTN/EVENG. EXPECT GENERALLY A PARTLY SUNNY
SKY OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WED AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA. A SFC FRONT WILL THEN DROP INTO THE AREA LATE
WED NGT THRU THU NGT. A WAVE OF LO PRES WILL TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT THRU THE MID ATLC REGION THU EVENG/NGT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A CHC FOR SHOWERS THU AFTN THRU THU NGT. LOWS WED NGT IN THE MID
50S TO LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON THU RANGING THRU THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THUR. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
SFC RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TO PUSH FARTHER TO THE NE. LATEST ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THURS...SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE APP MOUNTAINS WITH THE CENTER OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BEST DYNAMICS MOVING THROUGH SE CANADA.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO ARISE EARLY FRI AS GFS
SWEEPS THE FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT OVER THE AREA. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF DUE TO TRENDS LATELY
IN WHICH FRONTS STRUGGLE TO BE ABLE TO PUSH THEIR WAY COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST. WITH THE FRONT STALLING AROUND
THE AREA EXPECT WARMER TEMPS BUT CLOUDIER FORECAST FOR FRI.
SECONDARY WAVE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
MID WEST WILL HELP TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS
ENERGY WILL ALSO HELP PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST COOLING TEMPS AND
CLEARING CLOUDS FOR SAT. BRIEF AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE AREA FOR SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUN. AS EACH WAVE PASSES EXPECT WINDS TO BRIEFLY TURN TO THE
N/NW. BUT WITH FLOW ALOFT REMAINING FROM THE SW...SURFACE WINDS TURN
BACK TO THE S AND INHIBIT LONG DURATIONS OF COOLING FLOW. TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE TO AVG BY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 70-75 WITH SOME SLIGHT
COOLING BY SAT/SUN. A BIT ABOVE AVG AT NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM AROUND
50 TO NEAR 60 SE COAST...COOLING SLIGHTLY BY SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ROTATING IN FROM
THE OCEAN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL COVER ALL THE TAF SITES BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH RIC BEING THE LAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE COAST MANY
OF THE CIGS ARE IFR. BELIEVE ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR TO PUSH THE
CLOUDS UP TO MVFR LEVELS AT ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKING
AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM ALL SHOW CIGS LOWERING
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL BRING IFR CIGS BACK TO ALL AIRPORTS
EXCEPT RIC WHICH WILL MAINLY BE MVFR BUT COULD AT TIMES LOWER TO
IFR ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS GIVING LOWER VSBY TONIGHT HOWEVER LOOKING
AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND SREF ALL INDICATE KEEPING VSBY MVFR
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. FINALLY DURING WEDNESDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ALLOW WINDS TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO FROM
THE LAND. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WHICH SHOULD RAISE CIGS TO VFR INLAND AND MVFR ALONG THE COAST.
COULD FINALLY HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
W/ NE WINDS 15-25 KT. HV EVEN SEEN SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT
SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTEST.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TODAY, AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES FARTHER OFF THE SE
COAST. SLACKENING PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH WL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY NE IN
DIRECTION, AT ~10-15 KT THIS AFTN.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST EARLY ON THIS MORNING IN THE
LOWER BAY AND COASTAL ZONES (WAVES 3-4 FT AND WINDS ~20 KT IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE BAY AND SEAS 5-7 FT NRN ZONES TO 7-9 FT SRN ZONES). HOWEVER,
THINK THAT SCA SHOULD BE LOWERED IN THE CHES BAY WEST OF THE BAY
BRIDGE TUNNEL LATER TODAY. WL ALSO TAKE DOWN THE HIGH SURF DAVY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS WITH THE 7AM PACKAGE.
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SLIDE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THAT SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING OFFSHORE (W-SW) ON THU WITH WINDS AOB 15KT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY WED NGT, CROSSING THE
WATERS THU AFTN/NGT. RATHER MODEST NORTHERLY SURGE SHOULD RESULT IN
CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS THEN
QUICKLY TURN BACK TO THE E-SE FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT
TIDAL ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ERN VA RIVERS.
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND A FOOT OR LESS ALONG THE COASTAL
ERN SHORE. WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTING SOME OF THE EXISTING COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES DOWN TO STATEMENTS LATER THIS MORNING PER LATEST
OBS FALLING CLOSE TO 0.5 FT BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS W/
THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE
OUTER BANKS OF CURRITUCK COUNTY (DUCK) AS MINOR THRESHOLDS ARE
LIKELY. HIGH TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AIDED BY CONTINUED NE FLOW AND A FULL MOON BUT LATEST
DATA SUGGESTS WATER LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS. SEE CFWAKQ FOR MORE SITE- SPECIFIC TIDAL INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...MAS/TMG
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAM/JAB
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
129 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/HYDROLOGY
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THE EVENING HOURS WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE A BIT AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIVES FROM MINNESOTA AND OVER MICHIGANS UPPER PENINSULA. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...INCLUDING LOCALLY
HIGH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AIR THEN PUSHES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF LAKE INDUCED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
I DID UPDATED THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS USING
A COMBINATION OF OUR NEW TOOL...CONSSHORT...THE HRRR 13-14Z...THE
RAP 13Z AND LOOKING AT THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS. MY CURRENT THINKING
IS THE AREA OF SHOWERS WEST OF US WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO MID
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ALSO WEAKENS. HOWEVER... ONCE THE
CONVECTIVE BAND GETS TO MID-LAKE MICHIGAN IT SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY. THERE IS MARGINALLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SO I TIMES THE THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN BAND THROUGH THE CWA FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...WHILE IT IS TRUE THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NEAR 60KT... THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS RATHER SHALLOW
AND THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW (ONLY 250-300 J/KG). THE RESULT IS THE
EFFECT SHEAR IS BELOW 30 KNOTS. STILL WE HAVE 35 TO 40 KNOTS BELOW
5000 FT AGL AND THE AIR WILL BE DRY BELOW 6000 FT AGL UNTIL THE
RAIN ACTUALLY STARTS SO THAT WOULD ALLOW THE 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS
TO MIX DOWN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SO WHILE I DO
NOT SEE SEVERE STORMS THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG GUSTS OF WIND AS
THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.
AS TYPICAL OF THIS SORT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND IN THE EARLY TO MID
FALL I EXPECT THE HEAVIES RAINFALL TO BE NEAR AND WEST OF US-131
DUE TO THE LAKE ENHANCING THE STORMS. IT MAY WELL BE THAT LOCATIONS
NEAR AND NORTH OF HOLLAND COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE CONVECTIVE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I AM THINKING AS MUCH AS
1/2 INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR FROM THE CONVECTION MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN FACT SHOWN ON THE HRRR FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
ALL OF THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH MID
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH TSRA POTENTIAL
TODAY.
A DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS APPROACHING LOWER MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A
LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST A FEW THINGS ARE GOING TO COME TOGETHER
LATER TODAY TO RESULT IN A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG/SVR STORMS.
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE CWA AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LI/S NEAR -2C AND SBCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. THOSE VALUES
ARE NOT REAL HIGH...BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH SHEAR VALUES IN THE
45-55KT RANGE AND FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS WELL AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE A FEW STORMS. WIND WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...
HOWEVER THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30KTS SO THAT WILL
HELP IN DRAWING MOISTURE NWD. THE STORM THREAT WILL END THIS
EVENING.
COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
FOLLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE/LL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THEME OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS ONE OF COLDER AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN
SPINNING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA. MOISTURE DWINDLES SOME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS.
SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE...850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF +3C TO -3C THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. LAKE WATER TEMPS ARE ON
THE ORDER OF +17C...SO +4C AND COLDER WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
LAKE PRECIP. A DEEP TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
WELL BY THE GFS...AND THE ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME AROUND...TRENDING
TOWARD THE DEEPER GFS SOLUTION. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE A SHOWERY PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LEADING TO A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS. HIGHEST
POPS OBVIOUSLY TOWARDS THE LAKE...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL DRIVE WELL
INLAND. HAVE LOW 50S FOR HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND RIGHT NOW...BUT CAN
SEE NEEDING TO TREND THIS DOWN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING AS A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE DETERIORATING BACK TO MAINLY
MVFR WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
I ADDED WATER SPOUTS TO OUR NEAR SHORE FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
8 AM THURSDAY. THAT IS BASED ON 850 TO LAKE TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
15C AND 18C WEDNESDAY AND A CONVECTIVE DEPTH OF AROUND 8000 FT...
ALL OF WHICH FALL WITHIN OUR WATER SPOUT NOMOGRAM. SO DO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF YOUR BY THE LAKE SHORE WEDNESDAY AND SPOT ONE OF
THEM. I CONTINUED THE SCA....LITTLE QUESTION ABOUT THAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE AROUND ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF AN INCH
ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EXISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JAM
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
138 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER ERN S DAKOTA. STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE SUPPORTING A WIDE
BAND OF SHRA SPREADING N THRU WRN WI/FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD
WRN UPPER MI. AT 09Z...LEADING EDGE OF PCPN APPEARED BE VERY NEAR
KIWD.
SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY NOW AS MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MID LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES
EAST...CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES WED MORNING. AS A RESULT...DEEP
LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS DIMINISHES MAKREDLY TODAY AS DOES
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THUS...APPROACHING AREA OF
SHRA WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND PROBABLY COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE A PERIOD
OF RAINFALL. HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL) WILL BE UTILIZED OVER THE W
WITH A TREND DOWN TOWARD LIKELY OVER THE E. THIS AFTN...PCPN WILL
BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT OVER THE W AS MAIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE
SHIFTS E. A RIBBON OF MUCAPE (PERHAPS UPWARDS OF 200-300J/KG PER
NAM) SHIFTS ACROSS MAINLY SRN/ERN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...WITH MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT NOSING INTO SCNTRL/ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING...SHRA
MAY MOSTLY END FOR A TIME ACROSS THAT AREA.
DIMINISHING DEFORMATION ZONE -SHRA WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI MOST LIKELY TO SEE
MORE PERSISTENT SHRA. DEVELOPING UPSLOPE AS WINDS BACK FROM EASTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SHRA AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON...WITH MUCH MORE SEASONAL WEATHER
EXPECTED.
AT 12Z WED...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...WITH A CLOSED 850MB AND SFC TROUGH OVER OR NEAR THE ERN CWA
/DEPENDING ON MODEL...BUT THEY ALL HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA/.
PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER MUST OF UPPER MI DUE TO A TROWAL ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW. SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC
PRECIP EXITING THE ERN CWA AROUND OF JUST AFTER 18Z WED. MODELS ARE
ALSO HINTING AT SOME LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C BY 18Z OVER CENTRAL AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THAT THE LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL
LAST TOO LONG AS A SFC AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA
BY 18Z WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 00Z THU.
WED NIGHT LOOKS CHILLY IN MANY SPOTS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT UNDER THE
RIDGING...BUT CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S INLAND TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
THU LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND AN UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS SURGING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NW. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW CHANCE
CATEGORY UNTIL LATE.
EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES A MORE DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS...AND WILL EVEN MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FLOWING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL
EFFECT THE CWA...BUT DETAILS WITH THESE SHORTER WAVE LENGTH SYSTEMS
ARE FAR MORE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. AS LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS...850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C BY 00Z SAT AND MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE
THEY WILL STAY AROUND THAT TEMP THROUGH SAT...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON
IF/WHEN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CAN DRAG REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR
INTO THE CWA. MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WERE A FEW DEGREES COLDER BY
SAT...BUT THAT WAS BECAUSE THEY HAD THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER ENERGY
MOVING IN FASTER. STILL THINK THAT THE QUICKER ENTRANCE OF THE
COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF THAT ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST IS LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT MODELS RUNS ARE INSTEAD SLOWER
WITH THE COLD AIR...BRINGING -5C TO -7C 850MB TEMPS OVERHEAD SUN
INTO MON. THIS WOULD LEAD TO PURE LAKE EFFECT GIVEN LAKE SFC TEMPS
OF 9C TO 13C. PTYPE IS ALSO COMPLEX AND DEPENDENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER TEMPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SNOW WILL MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NIGHT WHEN NEAR SFC TEMPS ARE COOLER. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S SHOULD KEEP PRECIP MORE AS RAIN...OR
AT LEAST MELT ANY SNOW AS IT FALLS. STILL UNCERTAIN WITH A LOT OF
SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER IS DEFINITELY IN
STORE FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED INTO EACH OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE
AREA. CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR AT EACH OF THE
TAFS SITES WITH A STEADY IFR TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. -SHRA IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR EACH TAF SITE AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED -SHRA AT EACH SITE. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE
FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LOW PRES OVER SE SD WILL MOVE E...CROSSING SRN AND ERN UPPER MI
TONIGHT AND REACHING QUEBEC WED NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...EXPECT E
TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN OCNL
GALE FORCE WINDS WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED. OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
15-25KT. AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE AREA AND WINDS BACK NORTHERLY...
20-30KT WINDS WILL SHIFT E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH W TO E WED/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER E
AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE AOB 20KT THU/FRI. AS INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY DISTURBANCES DROP ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
110 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
A STORM SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE
ACTION THURSDAY...SHOWERY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES HOLD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO EARLIER THINKING...WITH RAIN STILL
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THAT LINES UP WITH THE LATEST RUC/HRRR/
RADAR ANALYSES. STILL WAITING TO SEE IF WE CAN FIRE ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO WANE WITH THAT IDEA AS
INSTABILITY PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS LOOKS EVEN MORE LIMITED...
COURTESY OF STUBBORN CAPPING ARRIVING UP AROUND 650MB QUICKLY
THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO...REALLY STARTING TO WONDER IF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL EFFECTIVELY GET SPLIT BY THE BEST QPF AS THE MAIN
RAIN BAND TRACKS TOWARD THE STRAITS AND RENEWED DEVELOPMENT TAKES
PLACE OVER THE LOWER LAKES/IL/IN WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOIST
INFLOW SETS UP BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE
RAINS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
A FAIRLY QUIET FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NOW WELL UNDERWAY...BUT ONE
DOESN`T HAVE TO LOOK TOO FAR UPSTREAM TO SEE OUT NEXT ROUND OF
WEATHER KNOCKING ON THE DOOR. IMPRESSIVE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS
SPILLING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AT THIS LATE MORNING HOUR...WITH
A NOTABLE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THIS
FEATURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEST AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND SAID MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
DRIVE A RATHER LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...AND
WISCONSIN IN PARTICULAR...WHILE AN ELONGATED AXIS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC AND DEFORMATION FORCING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINS (AND EVEN SOME SNOW) BACK OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
OUR BIGGEST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS JUST WHEN RAIN MAY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE AS THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ACROSS MICHIGAN IS QUITE DRY.
NEED PROOF? SEE 12Z APX RAOB WITH A HUGE DRY WEDGE BETWEEN 875 AND
550MB. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
TRENDS...THINK SLIGHTLY SLOWER IS BETTER...AND IN LINE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT CREW`S FORECAST...HAVE CONTINUED TO DELAY POPS THROUGH
ROUGHLY 18Z WESTERN AREAS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT TAKE CONTROL FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
PRONOUNCED AXIS OF 850-500MB Q-VECTOR FORCING DRAPING ITSELF
ACROSS THE CWA. COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS (PWAT VALUES SLIDING TOWARD 1+ INCHES)...WE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE REALIZING A BAND OF RAIN CROSSING THE AREA...BUT
MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDER THREAT WILL ALSO BE
THERE WITH QUITE THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WORKING
OVERHEAD (SEE 12Z OAX RAOB FOR A PREVIEW)...THOUGH OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN NOT TERRIBLY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY MOST SPOTS...THOUGH
WITH A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. EARLIER BATCH OF LOWER STRATUS CONTINUES TO
SLIDE UP THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AND ALSO INTO EASTERN
UPPER...AND THAT SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALSO
SEEING SOME LOWER STRATUS INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH IS ALSO
TAKING QUITE SOME TIME TO MIX OUT. SO THE GIST OF THINGS WILL BE
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT WITH GOING HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE
50S LOOKING ON TARGET FOR THE MOMENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
INDEED LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NE LOWER IN A RELATIVELY
MORE MOIST SE FLOW COMING IN OFF LAKE HURON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO INCREASE...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKY ALL AREAS. SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE LIKELY FOR A LITTLE WHILE
THIS MORNING...BEFORE TOTALLY CLOUDY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED AS FAR AS THE
MIDDLE 20S IN THE COLDEST OF LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS NE LOWER...IN
SLACKEST GRADIENT. READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE WARMER LAKES WERE
STILL IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S. QUITE THE LARGE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
CURRENTLY...DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
IA/NE BORDER AND EASTERN KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS/WAA IS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI AND BACK
ACROSS IN WELL DEVELOPED DEFORMATION ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
WIDESPREAD RAINS WERE OCCURRING HERE...WHILE A BAND OF RAIN IS
ASSOCIATED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CLAPS
OF THUNDER. WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE...WAA ALOFT IS
BRINGING IN SOME INCREASED CIRRUS. WE ARE STILL WITHIN THE DRIEST
CORE OF H8-H7 AIR...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO TUMBLE RATHER
EFFICIENTLY AWAY FROM WINDS OFF THE LAKES (MAINLY EASTERN
CHIP/MACK AND THE NE LOWER COAST). TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE LOW LYING AREAS...WITH AS "MILD" AS THE LOWER 40S
IN AND AROUND THE WARMER LAKES. ALSO...NO SIGN OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS/STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT IN SE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON RIGHT
NOW...BUT THAT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
FCST CONCERNS...PRECIP CHANCES AND THUNDER...ALONG WITH HIGHS
TODAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO WISCONSIN BY
EVENING...THEN INTO EASTERN UPPER/WHITEFISH BAY LATE TONIGHT WHILE
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN. INITIAL BAND OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RAIN
WILL WORK TO MOISTEN THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...CAN SEE SOME LIGHTER
RAINS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AXIS OF
STRONGEST WAA ATTACHED TO ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT. THIS STARTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN CWA...AND THIS EVENING EAST. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS AROUND WHILE WE ARE STILL TRYING TO SATURATE
THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE DRY H8-H7 AIR
CLINGING ON WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS TO STRIP OUT ALOFT...IN ADVANCE
OF A DRY SLOT/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT (H5-H7)/COLD FRONT. FROM A
QPF STANDPOINT...AM NOT THRILLED WITH THIS SYSTEM`S OUTPUT.
LOWERED MODEL QPF TO 0.10"-0.15". COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STRIKES ON
LEADING EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C/KM. THE DRY SLOT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PERIODIC DRIZZLE LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT BET ON FCST BFR SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE EVEN
EASTERN UPPER WILL GET DRY-SLOTTED...BUT MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT
DEEPER UP THERE FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN-ISH/DRIZZLY WEATHER. NOT THAT
THERE IS TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE REALLY. THE MAIN SYSTEM DEFORMATION
AND TROWAL SIGNATURE/SFC TROUGH WILL BE CLOSEST ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND THERE ARE A FEW INDICATORS THAT THIS COULD ROLL OVER
INTO EASTERN UPPER BY DAYBREAK FOR SOME MORE EFFICIENT FORCING FOR
RAIN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFICULT...AS LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS. IN THICKER
CLOUD/LESS WAA ACROSS THE NW CWA...WILL HAVE MID/UPPER 50S AND
THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE SE CWA NEARER THE SAG BAY WITH
LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THICKER LOW LEVEL CLOUD WILL OFFSET THE
COOLING...AND CAN SEE LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWERS. A SHORT BREAK IN THE
ACTION IS NOW EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SETUP IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A FEW DAYS OF SHOWERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN LONG
TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DUE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS WELL AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN DUE TO A BIT OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT (AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO ABOUT +2C BY 00Z THU YIELDING
LAKE/850 MB DELTA TS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS). HIGHS IN THE DAMP AND
COOL MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY DRY OUT THE REGION
(MEAN 1000-500 MB RH ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT) YIELDING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORCING
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN
ADDITION...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SHOWN TO PERIODICALLY DROP DOWN
THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGING REINFORCING SHOTS OF CHILLY AIR.
UNFORTUNATELY THE TIMING AND TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS NOT
HANDLED THE BEST...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE GIVING VERY LITTLE INSIGHT
AS FAR AS CRUCIAL DETAILS LIKE WIND FIELDS...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE YOUNG SEASON WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW
ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THERE STILL COULD END UP BEING A
FEW WET SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS 850
MB TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN -2 AND -4 C...MAINLY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST
THEN ONLY THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES AS MORE PIECES OF
ENERGY DROP DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A QUICK DECREASE TOWARD IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BAND OF RAIN SLIDES THROUGH THE TERMINAL
SITES. COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT THAT
CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...WITH SOMEWHAT GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS SWITCHING QUICKLY
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT REMAINING GUSTY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK TO MVFR WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THOSE LASTING RIGHT
ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
UPDATE: HAVE DECIDED TO FIRE OFF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF
THE WATERS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES FOR
MANY AREAS WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT THERE IS A DECENT CHUNK OF WIND
JUST OFF THE DECK AND IT WON`T TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET SOME HIGHER
GUSTS DOWN TO THE WATER. THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE
INTO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY WORKS
THROUGH THE WATERS AND WIND DIRECTIONS SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS...AS THEY VEER FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTH
AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER WILL ROLL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
PASSES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
ABRUPTLY TO OUT OF THE NW. WINDS NOW LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...DESPITE GROWING INSTABILITY.
WINDS WILL BACK SW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ346>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...AJS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...SMD/LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS HASTINGS NE
116 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS
MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY LINGER THE
LONGEST ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE ASSUMPTION OF CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS...FELT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT AND THUS HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AH...THE JOYS OF SKY COVER FORECASTING AS FAST-MOVING...ALTERNATING
LOBES OF CLOUDS/CLEARING ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND A DEPARTING
LOW. JUST SINCE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED 2 HOURS
AGO...WHAT HAD BEEN A NEARLY SOLID DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA HAS MOVED OUT/SCATTERED OUT...MEANING
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOW LOOKING TO AT LEAST START THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SIDE...EXCEPT FOR A BIT
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE BRUSHING UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN EDGES.
SHORT TERM LOW CLOUD PROGS SUCH AS FROM THE HRRR ARE STILL
SUGGESTING THAT STRATUS WILL FILL BACK INTO AT LEAST THE MAJORITY
OF NEB ZONES FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH YET THIS MORNING...WITH KS ZONES
STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WITH VERY LITTLE RISK OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE CWA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EVEN THAT ONLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN-MOST FRINGES...THE MAIN CONCERNS TURN TO STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLE
IF NOT LIKELY FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. WILL STATE OFF THE
TOP...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
NOW...AND WILL DEFER TO NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
LOW TEMPS/CLOUD TRENDS TO HOPEFULLY RAISE CONFIDENCE IN A
POTENTIAL HEADLINE. THIS ALSO ALLOWS THE WIND ADVISORY TO TAKE
CENTER STAGE FOR THE TIME BEING...AS THE WIND CONCERNS COME FIRST.
08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A BRISK MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...A SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE AVERAGING 15-25
MPH EXCEPT FOR SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SPEEDS IN THE FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THESE WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEPARTING 1004 MILLIBAR LOW CENTERED NEAR SIOUX
FALLS...AND A 1033MB HIGH CENTERED OVER MT. IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA HIGHLIGHT
THE VIGOROUS...NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
OVER EASTERN SD...WHILE A LARGE-SCALE BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE
CARVED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS...BOUNDED ON
THE SOUTH BY A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL JET CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS FROM
NM TO IA. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOWS SUCH AS
THIS...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS
ROUGHLY BISECTED BY A RATHER SOLID BATCH OF LOW STRATUS CENTERED
AROUND 2500 FT AGL...WITH AREAS GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A KEARNEY-
GENEVA LINE UNDER THESE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHILE ALMOST
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. DESPITE THESE TWO DISTINCT CLOUD REGIMES...STRONGER WINDS
ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES REASONABLY UNIFORM...WITH MOST AREAS
ANTICIPATED TO BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 38-44 DEGREES.
TURNING TO THE DAYTIME FORECAST...NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE EVOLUTION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD FIELD WILL LIKELY PROVE CHALLENGING FOR
SHORT TERM SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS. BUT STARTING WITH THE BIG
PICTURE ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF
THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS WILL GRADUALLY REACH THE
MN/WI BORDER BY SUNSET...AS TRAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IT IS
NOW...BUT EASING UP VERY SLOWLY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
GIVEN THE QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE THIS
MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE ANOTHER NOTCH ONCE
DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MIXING UP TO AT LEAST 850MB...WHERE THERE WILL RESIDE 25-45 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAXIMUM THAT ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE NET RESULT...BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE...IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35+ MPH ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 STAND A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF BREACHING 30 MPH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND
APPROACHING 45 MPH GUSTS ON A SEMI-REGULAR BASIS...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN MID-MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE 7 COUNTIES RUNNING FROM 10AM-
5PM...WHICH MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL WITH A PRE-EXISTING ADVISORY
ISSUED BY WFO LBF. TURNING TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF TODAYS
FORECAST...SKY COVER TRENDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE. WHILE SOME MODELS
MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST GRADIENT AS
CURRENTLY SEEN...THE CONSENSUS OF SHORTER TERM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY/CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THAT
EVENTUALLY LOW STRATUS WILL PIVOT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AND
PROVIDE A RATHER CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TO MOST ALL NEB
ZONES...WHILE LEAVING KS ZONES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IN
ADDITION...THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/SATURATION
EVIDENT AROUND 700MB IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH THINK ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN RISK WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA...DID INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES GENERALLY NORTH OF AN ORD-GENOA LINE.
ALTHOUGH TODAY WAS NEVER FORECAST TO BE VERY WARM...OBVIOUSLY THE
PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS COULD EASILY SHAVE A FEW MORE
DEGREES OFF FORECAST HIGHS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...NUDGED DOWN HIGHS
VERY SLIGHTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND POTENTIALLY NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S NORTH...NEAR 50
CENTRAL AND MID-UPPER 50S IN KS ZONES.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
SKY COVER AND THE RESULTANT EFFECTS ON LOW TEMPS/FROST FORMATION
LEAVES SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED FOR BEING ONLY 12-24 HOURS AWAY. IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFT EASTWARD...BUT AS IT DOES SO A TRAILING...HIGHLY
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE HEART
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PHASED SOMEWHAT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD STILL HOLD UP AT LEAST
5-10 MPH EVEN THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...AND CLOSER TO
15 MPH EARLIER IN THE EVENING ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. LEANING TOWARD
THE 06Z NAM RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS...ALTHOUGH THE NIGHT COULD
VERY WELL START OUT CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY OVER NEB
ZONES...A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...ESPECIALLY REGARDING ANY LOWER STRATUS...ALTHOUGH THE
PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ARGUES THAT AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ALSO BE LURKING AROUND.
ALTHOUGH AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE RAIN...ALSO LINGERED THE
SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. ASSUMING THAT SKIES AT LEAST AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY
CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY...AND
THUS MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS LOWS...WHICH RANGE FROM AROUND
30-32 IN THE FAR WEST...UP TO 35-36 IN THE EAST. EVEN IF THESE
LOWS ARE REALIZED...BREEZES COULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FROST FORMATION...EXCEPT IN TYPICAL LOWER
ELEVATION/SHELTERED AREAS. IN ADDITION TO A POSSIBLE UPCOMING
FROST ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...A FEW FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
SUCH AS DAWSON/FURNAS MAY BE CANDIDATES FOR A FREEZE WARNING...AND
AGAIN WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHIFTS TO GET THE BALL ROLLING ON THESE
POSSIBLE HEADLINES. PLEASE NOTE HOWEVER...THAT DUE TO EARLIER
FREEZES ON OCT. 7TH AND/OR OCT. 13TH...VALLEY AND GREELEY
COUNTIES IN OUR FAR NORTH WILL NO LONGER BE INCLUDED IN ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS CYCLE INCLUDE FROST CHANCES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY.
CHECKING THE BIG PICTURE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL MODELS IN
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEST SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...AND THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING
FROM B.C. CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...WE SHOULD
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SET UP SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE ONE CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROST
FORMATION. THE SET UP LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR FROST AT LEAST FOR THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...UNLESS WE HAVE A THICK OVERCAST LAYER OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT. ALREADY
HAVE PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS.
BY FRIDAY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN PLACING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE EC HAVE SHOWN A DECENT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. STILL WAITING FOR THE MOST RECENT
RUN OF THE EC AS IT HAS BEEN DELAYED A BIT...BUT OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM ALSO SHOW THIS PATTERN. REGARDING THE SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY...THE OLD EC WAS THE MOST ROBUST IN PRODUCING
QPF...ALL THE WAY FROM CENTRAL NEB DOWN INTO TEXAS...WHILE THE GFS
KEPT MOST OF IT SOUTH OF NEB...AND THE GEM IS EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THAT. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT POPS ARE STILL JUSTIFIED
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WILL PUT HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTH AND
TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES...12Z EC HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE CWA. WILL CHECK LATEST RUN
OF EC IF IT COMES IN BEFORE IT IS TIME TO SEND OUT THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE SEVERAL MODELS AGREE THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID.
ON AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. STILL WE HAVE MADE IT PAST THE AVERAGE FIRST FROST
DATE FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY AT LEAST A WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN ISSUE AT KGRI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...BUT WILL DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER DARK AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL MIXING AND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
ALTHOUGH LONGER TERM DROUGHT ISSUES STILL REMAIN...THE LAST 3
WEEKS HAVE BROUGHT SEVERAL INCHES OF BENEFICIAL RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
RECENT 1-2 CATEGORY IMPROVEMENTS PER THE WEEKLY U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR. AS FOR THE RAINFALL EVENT FROM MONDAY THE 14TH...A FEW
QUICK NOTES REGARDING OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES...
GRAND ISLAND...SET A NEW OCT. 14 DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD WITH
1.36 INCHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE RERGRI PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.
HASTINGS...ALTHOUGH THE 0.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON THE 14TH WAS NOT A
DAILY RECORD...IT DID BOOST THE MONTH-TO-DATE TOTAL TO 4.65
INCHES. THIS NOW PLACES OCT. 2013 AS THE 3RD-WETTEST OCTOBER ON
RECORD DATING BACK 118 YEARS TO 1985. INTERESTINGLY...3 OF THE
TOP 5 WETTEST OCTOBERS HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN WITH PAST 7
YEARS...WITH THE TOP-5 AS FOLLOWS:
1) 6.16 INCHES IN 2008
2) 5.82 INCHES IN 1897
3) 4.65 INCHES IN 2013 (SO FAR)
4) 4.56 INCHES IN 1968
5) 4.32 INCHES IN 2007
PLEASE NOTE THAT HASTINGS PRECIPITATION RECORDS ARE BASED ON NWS
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTS (HASTINGS 4N) BETWEEN THE YEARS OF
1895 AND MARCH 1998...WITH RECORDS SINCE APRIL 1998 FROM THE
AUTOMATED SENSOR AT HASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ041-048-
049-062>064-075>077-085>087.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ046-047-
060-061-072>074-082>084.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060-061-072.
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ007-019.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ005-006-
017-018.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...WESELY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/
MIDDAY TAF UPDATES REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AS THE RUC MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SLOWER
TRENDS IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME MIXING. IN KEEPING WITH THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...WILL EXPECT MOSTLY SHRA/+SHRA TO OCCUR IN THE FIRST
3-6 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE MODEL RUN OR
AFTER 05Z...WITH N-S ORIENTED SQUALLS MOVING EAST ALONG THE 925-850
MB FRONTAL SLOPE AND IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. CIG AND VSBY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IFR AND
OCCASIONALLY DIPPING TO LIFR OR LIFTING TO MVFR. RAINFALL RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS FRONTAL
DEPTH DEEPENS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIFTING OF CIGS EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013/
UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WELL WARRANTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
NEW 12Z GFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE NEW FOCUS
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE 850 MILLIBAR FRONT DRAPED OVER OUR
NORTHERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT. THIS NEW FOCUSING BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
A BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING
NORTHEAST OVER THE 850 FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOODING AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS. THE MAIN THREAT AREAS CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU EASTWARD
THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL TWEAK THE ONGOING
WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013/
AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES THIS MORNING...WHILE KDRT SEES -RA
THROUGH 18Z. AFT 18Z...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WITH HIGH CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM 160-180
DEGREES TO 36-03 DEGREES AS THE FRONT PASSES. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
-SHRA BR WILL CONTINUE FROM 06Z TO 12Z WED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. THOSE
INGREDIENTS ARE TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES BY
THIS EVENING. THE PWATS WILL BE NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL WHICH IS A SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE HIGH PWATS
ARE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AND HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM T.S. OCTAVE. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. DUE TO RECENT
RAINS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF. WPC HAS
PLACED THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY IN THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK. WE FEEL THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE FROPA WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED ON WEDNESDAY ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES COLDER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 58 60 55 73 / 80 80 70 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 57 59 54 73 / 70 80 70 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 59 61 55 73 / 60 70 70 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 53 55 52 71 / 90 90 70 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 60 64 57 74 / 60 80 50 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 55 57 54 72 / 80 80 70 20 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 84 61 62 56 74 / 60 70 70 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 59 60 55 73 / 70 70 70 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 60 63 56 73 / 50 60 60 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 60 62 55 73 / 60 70 70 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 62 64 57 73 / 50 60 60 30 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...
BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...02
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND AN
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SHIFTING EAST OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. LEADING
BAND OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAIN IS NOW EXITING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS MOSTLY INACTIVE. THE OVERCAST
CLOUD DECK EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
HOWEVER...THOUGH SOME BREAKS WERE DEVELOPING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN IOWA. THIS AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RUN AT
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE ELONGATED LOW
OVERCAST DECK...THE TROWAL AIRSTREAM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE OVER MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST...PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
AT THE SAME TIME. WITH THE DRY SLOT OVERHEAD AND PRONOUNCED CAPPING
AT 700MB...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. BUT
ENOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N-C WISCONSIN.
BY MID TO LATE EVENING THOUGH...DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH ALONG WITH SHARP SURFACE
TROUGHING...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURNING TO CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY REACH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF LOW
OVERCAST WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 40S.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT...SO SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE. THE SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH DEPARTS. DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL THEN SLOWLY ADVECT
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THOUGH...SO DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND BY A FEW HOURS.
WESTERN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MAIN ISSUES THIS PERIOD IN TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES. OVERALL PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH STRONG RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF CONUS. COOL...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...THOUGH TRYING TO TIME ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH TROF BETWEEN MODELS IS DIFFICULT AS CHANGES FROM RUN TO
RUN. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN LLVL THERMAL
FIELDS. MOISTURE FOR PCPN ALSO DIMINISHES WITH TIME AS FLOW
COMING OUT OF CANADA. STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH EXTENDED.
IN NEAR TERM...RIDGING OVERNIGHT WED TO LEAD TO DRY PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES TO LEAD TO FROST POTENTIAL. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD...AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE
WILL HAVE ENOUGH CLEARING BETWEEN EXITING/ENTERING SYSTEMS. FROST
PUT IN GRIDS ONLY FOR EAST CENTRAL WHERE HEADLINES STILL BEING
ISSUED.
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME
WITH WINDS REMAINING TOO WESTERLY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRIMARY RAIN
BAND EXITS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF IFR CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS...UP TO MVFR. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE LOW WILL LEAD TO SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NO REPRIEVE FROM THE IFR/LIFR CIGS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
UNTIL THE MORNING WITH THE LOW PASSING THROUGH AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY. LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AFTER THE
SHOWERS END AND DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST GRADUALLY ARRIVES.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1202 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DRIFTING NORTHEAST. A
SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR MAY SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAINFALL TODAY AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THESE AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION FROM 2 KFT TO ALMOST 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THIS DRY SLOT BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON
THESE AREAS WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE. PLAN ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES IN. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LINKING UP
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN LINGERS OVER THE
AREA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PLAN ON LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. PLAN ON DECREASING CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. LOW
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER HUDSONS BAY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AND SETS UP A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR STARTS TO
INVADE THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 0 TO -2C RANGE FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH
THEN DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY
THEN DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT TIMES
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -4C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM -8C OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND -2C ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HAVE INCLUDED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I94 DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
1005MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE/SURFACE/RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF MVFR/IFR CLOUD AND SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. PLAN ON MVFR CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO DETERIORATE INTO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PASSES OVERHEAD AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT PULLS
EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1158 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST WI THIS MORNING PER
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. BACK EDGE OF RAIN MARCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...REACHING
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AT 19Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND IN SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. THE
OCCLUDED FRONT IS APPARENT ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE BY A NARROW
CLOUD ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO INDICATED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST/WEST. THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT REACHES SOUTHEAST WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS KEPT
SMALL CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN STOPS
UNTIL THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...OR UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THEN MVFR CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
OR JUST LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ONLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BROKEN/OVERCAST IN SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH THE
DAY. UNCERTAIN IF CIGS NEAR THE SHORELINE WILL DROP TO IFR OR IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO KEEP THEM MVFR ALONG THE
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PERIOD OF VFR POSSIBLE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING...BUT THEN
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS/VSBY ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WRAP-AROUND REGION OF THE LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIG/VSBY WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
BAND OF 850 MB WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AHEAD OF NEARLY-STACKED SYSTEM
OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE CROSSING SRN WI WITH OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL BE TIMING PCPN ACROSS WITH LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LAYER FRONTOGENESIS...THOUGH FORCING WEAKENS AS
LIFTS NORTHEAST...TRACKING ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WITH COUPLED UPR JET OVER WRN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING THAT LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST... THOUGH LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK IN SRN
BRANCH LINGERS OVER THE EAST THROUGH 00Z WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT REFLECTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AS WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE PUSHES EAST AND MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH MOVES
ACROSS REGION. SOME QUESTION FOR THUNDER WITH NONE OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE. ANY CHANCE WILL PROBABLY
BE IN THE EAST WHERE SOME ELEVATED CAPE APPEARS DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND THE NOON HOUR...THEN
STEADY OUT BEFORE SLOWLY COOLING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOIST AFTER OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH SO LEFT CHANCE
POPS IN...THOUGH MAY END UP BEING MORE DRIZZLE THAN LIGHT SHOWERS.
WRAP AROUND PCPN WITH 500 MB TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
CWA TONIGHT...MAKING SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. NOT A TON OF LIFT AS THE TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY MOVE
THROUGH...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY ONLY SATURATING TO 8 TO 10
KFT. STILL...SEEMS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT THERE FOR SOME
SHOWERS...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING. BETWEEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOW
50S.
SHOULD SEE LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOR SOME FROST AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. BIG QUESTION THOUGH IS THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...WITH MODELS RANGING FROM A MOSTLY CLEAR NAM TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ECMWF. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST...SO PUT LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SHOWING A WEAKER CLOSED UPPER LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHER MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY THOUGH...SO ONLY WENT WITH SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY BASED ON THE FACT THE THE ECMWF IS
CLOUDY AND COOLER WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SIMILAR TO POPS AND
SKY COVER...LEANED TOWARD THE WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS...RESULTING IN HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...SO HAVE SMALL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. NONE
OF THE WAVES LOOK LIKE THEY WOULD PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH THE CONSENSUS
OF CURRENT MODELS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FRIDAY...THEN
STRUGGLING TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WILL SEE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS DROP TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS
REGION...WITH THE MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. SOME QUESTION WHETHER CIGS WILL FALL LOWER THAN MVFR...AS
HINTED AT ON MET MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SOME
SUB-1K FT CIGS ON CURRENT OBS IN WESTERN IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
WILL MONITOR PROGRESS OF THE LOWER CIGS AND ADD IF NEEDED...BUT
CURRENT PLAN IS TO LEAVE CIGS AT LOW MVFR LEVELS. WILL SEE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT...WITH
THE NAM GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME WESTERLY GUSTS IN TIGHTER GRADIENT
BEHIND FRONT INTO THIS EVENING IN THE EAST.
MARINE...
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUPPORT CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY END TIME AS
WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING WITH SHIFT TO WEST WINDS BEHIND OCCLUDED
FRONT/COLD FRONT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NRN ZONES FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION AS THEY WILL BE IN TIGHTER GRADIENT AND WAVE
HEIGHTS TOWARD OPEN WATER MAY STAY UP A BIT MORE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV