Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/14/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
722 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF STRATOCU CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE AND SHIFT FURTHER
INLAND WITH TIME. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
BAND RATHER WELL SO ADJUSTED SKIES TOWARD ITS TIMING...WHICH
SUGGESTS IT MAY TAKE UNTIL ABOUT 04Z TO FULLY DISSIPATE AND MOVE
OUT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FROST
ADVISORY AS CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED FOR THE MOST PART AND
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDINESS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AROUND EDGES...ESPECIALLY ALONG
EASTERN MA COAST WHERE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WERE
WORKING IN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE WE NEVER ENTIRELY LOSE THIS CLOUD COVER ALONG MANCHESTER/
WORCESTER/WILLIMANTIC CORRIDOR SHOULD IT BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THAT MAY COMPLICATE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ASSUMING SKIES CLEAR...
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO MID 30S ACROSS PARTS OF SW NH AND
NORTHERN MA...WITH AREAS OF FROST IN THESE LOCATIONS WHERE FROST
ADVISORY IS POSTED. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN
RIVER VALLEYS MUCH LIKE WE HAVE SEEN PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. IF
CLOUDS HOLD TOUGH...FROST/FOG POTENTIAL IS MUCH LOWER.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON SKY COVER FORECAST....WILL
LEAVE FROST HEADLINES AS IS AND NOT EXPAND TO OTHER AREAS AT THIS
TIME.
FORECAST LOWS ARE BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED GFS/NAM MOS...LOWER 40S
COAST/URBAN AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER REGION MON. ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY AND WITH MORE OF SE FLOW /AS OPPOSED TO NE/ WE
SHOULD NOT SEE AS MUCH DIURNAL CLOUDINESS AS WE DID TODAY. WEAK
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT...BUT BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN WELL TO OUR N AS IT RUNS INTO SURFACE HIGH WHICH RETREATS
JUST OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
BUT LITTLE MORE THAN THAT.
CONTINUED TO USE BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED GFS/NAM MOS FOR HIGHS MON
/60S/ AND LOWS MON NIGHT /40S TO LOWER 50S/.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK
* RISK OF SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO FRI
* MOSTLY DRY WX NEXT WEEKEND
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
13/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY CONVERGE ON
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. HOWEVER THERE ARE ISSUES
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH ARE CAUSING TIMING/SPATIAL
DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE E. THERE IS
ENOUGH GENERAL AGREEMENT...EVEN NOW WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
ON FRI...THAT A GENERAL ECMWF/GFS BLEND SHOULD BE A GOOD STARTING
POINT FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED
THROUGHOUT.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOUR ALLOWING A PROGRESSIVELY OPENING LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE NRN
PLAINS TO SHIFT NE...BECOMING GENERALLY AN OPEN LONGWAVE TROF
ACROSS ERN CANADA. INITIALLY THE DRY WX CONTINUES AS THE RIDGE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...THIS EASTERN SHIFT WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BUT GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SUGGESTS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR
THE LATE WORK WEEK. INDEED THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...ONE INITIALLY
WED NIGHT INTO THU...THEN A SECOND ON FRI. GFS HAS JOINED ECMWF
WITH THIS SECONDARY WAVE...ALTHOUGH IS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WHICH LOOKS LIKE A BETTER SOLUTION GIVEN THE FAST
FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAKENING TREND AS THE WAVE INTERACTS
WITH RIDGING TO THE E. DRY W FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND FAVORS A
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY DRY WX...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND.
SENSIBLE WX DETAILS...
TUE INTO WED...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRES AND UPPER LVL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER
E. APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRES AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON WED BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE LOADING IS SLOW
ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD DELAY ANY PRECIP ONSET UNTIL WED
EVENING/NIGHT. EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING AND INCREASING DWPTS UNDER
S-SW RETURN FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 EACH DAY
/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL/ WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 50S.
WED NIGHT INTO FRI...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DRY A LOW PRES NW OF THE REGION
ALLOWING ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WED
NIGHT INTO THU. BEST PV ANOMALY...STRONGEST LLJ...AND TIGHTEST
BAROCLINICITY ALL SLIDE N AND W OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...SO SUSPECT
THAT BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL SHIFT NW WITH THE PARENT LOW.
HOWEVER...DO NOTE THAT PWAT VALUES AVERAGE 1.0-1.25 INCHES SO SCT-
WIDESPREAD -SHRA WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION INTO THE EARLY HALF
OF THE DAY THU DESPITE THE BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFTING N. A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD THEN FOLLOWS INTO LATE THU NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS
OFFSHORE AND A SECOND FRONTAL WAVE MOVES UP FROM THE SE STATES. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS...SUGGESTING PRECIP GENERALLY ENDS BY AFTERNOON FRI. ONCE
AGAIN...JUST -SHRA...SO NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT WITH THIS FEATURE
EITHER. TEMPERATURES WILL LEAN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND
THE MID 60S AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THIS WEEKEND...
MAINLY DRY WX PREVAILS AS NOSE OF HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE
SW AND W FLOW DEVELOPS. GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED -SHRA...BUT THAT LATTER
WOULD LIKELY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THINKING OF A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
COOL AIRMASS SETTLES IN WITH CAA ALOFT...SO EXPECT TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
00Z UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO THE TAFS...
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MIXED MVFR LOW-VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES IN
VOF CT VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. PARTICULARLY AT PRONE TAF SITES. LIGHT WINDS MON WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
VFR CIGS RETURN MON NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ACROSS
INTERIOR TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. LOCAL IFR IN FOG ACROSS VALLEYS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING OF
SCT CLOUDS THIS EVENING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUE THROUGH WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS
TUE NIGHT. SOME -SHRA IN THE W AND SW BY LATE WED EVENING.
THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA AND FOG. OTHERWISE...SOME VFR
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL BE CLEARING THE ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SAVE FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OCEAN WATERS WITH THE 00Z UPDATE...
E/NE WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEAS
WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...AS SEAS FALL BELOW 5 FT ON NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING AND FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. SCA REMAINS
POSTED TO REFLECT THESE TIMES.
WEAK GRADIENT MON WITH FLAT SEAS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. LIGHT
S/SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER
THE AREA.
WED INTO FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE S WED AND THEN BACK TO THE W BY THU.
HOWEVER...MOST WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...SEAS ALSO REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW 5 FT...EVEN IN BUILDING S SWELL. OTHERWISE...SOME
SHOWERS AND FOG MAY LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS AT TIME WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY THU AND THEN AGAIN DURING
THE DAY FRI.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ003-004-026.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1011 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
734 PM CDT
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY DROPPING MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST SO
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS. IN ADDITION
EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN IL AND LAKE COUNTY IL. PARTS OF INDIANA MAY SEE AREAS OF FROST
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
INDIANA COUNTIES IN THE FROST ADVISORY. LASTLY...LOWERED SKY
COVER ACROSS THE LAKE... NW INDIANA...AND NE ILLINOIS TOMORROW AS
THINKING LIGHT WINDS AND THE VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT THE
CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
JEE
//PREV DISCUSSION...
305 PM CDT
THE CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST ARE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORNING CLOUDS OFF THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND
THEN RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY. FINALLY THE SUBSEQUENT NOTEWORTHY COOL
DOWN INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME A GREATER FORECAST CHALLENGE AS
THIS WEEK PROGRESSES.
SYNOPSIS...EXPANSIVE 1030MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY
EVENING. COOL BUT MORE SEASONAL 850MB TEMPS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...INCLUDING +3C AT DVN. ALMOST ALL 12Z
GUIDANCE INITIALIZED TOO MILD WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL COOL AIR. THAT
MAY BE ONE REASON WHY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPS
TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
TONIGHT...SATELLITE REVEALS THE ONLY CLOUDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
REGION ARE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MI...AND THESE ARE IN PLACE THANKS
TO THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE STILL MILD WATERS. AS THE
HIGH DOES MOVE OVER THE AREA...850-1000MB LOW WILL TURN MORE
NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY. SPEEDS WILL DROP BUT ARE LIKELY
ENOUGH TO ADVECT LAKE-INDUCED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SATURATION ON
TOP OF THIS INDICATIVE OF STRATOCU INTO FAR NW IN AND THEN FAR NE
IL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAM AND LOCAL ARW SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL RH
FIELDS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO THIS SOLUTIONS...ALONG WITH SPC WRF
COLUMN CONDENSATE WHICH SEEMS TO DO WELL WITH STRATOCU IN THESE
SITUATIONS. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOW OR EVEN HALT THE TEMPERATURE
DROP LATE TONIGHT IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND OTHER LAKE ADJACENT
AREAS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...A PICTURE PERFECT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS SHAPING UP AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE BY EARLY TO MID EVE. HAD ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TREND TO REFLECT QUICK COOLING AFTER DARK...AND FOR MINS HAVE
CONSIDERED LAST NIGHTS TEMPS STRONGLY AS A BASELINE AS OPPOSED TO
ANY GUIDANCE SOURCE. THERE IS LITTLE REASON FOR OUTLYING AREAS TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING...AND CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINTS
LEAN THAT ROUTE AS WELL INDICATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL MIXED
TODAY. SO EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 32 TO 35 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL WITH
MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE IN OUTLYING AREAS. CONSIDERING COCORAHS
OBSERVER COMMENTS THIS MORNING REPORTING PATCHY FROST...WOULD EXPECT
CLOSER TO A WIDESPREAD FROST IN NORTH CENTRAL IL. CONSIDERING THE
MILD NIGHT AS OF RECENT...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND COLLABORATED A FROST
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT...THE FIRST SUCH ADVISORY OF THE
SEASON.
MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON COLUMBUS DAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER IN NORTHEAST IL...POSSIBLY
AS FAR WEST AS NORTH CENTRAL IL...BUT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE CLOUD DEPTH LOOKS TO BE AT OR UNDER 3K FT AT MOST
OVER THE LAKE SO ANY STRATOCU MAY BEGIN TO THIN QUICKLY BY LATE
MORNING. MIXING LOOKS TO BE TO 875MB...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPORT 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS UT/NV WILL
SHIFT ENE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL
BE THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES EVOLVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. TOGETHER THESE WILL CARVE
OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONTINENT...EXTENDING INTO THE MIDWEST BY WEEKS END. THIS FIRST WAVE
ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS
PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COOL FRONT. THE GFS
REMAINS THE QUICKEST SOLUTION WITH THIS...BUT NOT BY MUCH AT ALL.
THE MEAN OF THE SOLUTIONS PAINTS THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAX POINTS INTO THE REGION. AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LIKELY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS MAY
PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER. INSTABILITY RETURN LOOKS TO BE
VERY MODEST AT BEST...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS MORNING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND RAIN. THE DRY SLOT STILL LOOKS TO EVOLVE OVER TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AT THAT POINT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRAPS AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND PREVAILS ON WED WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUE. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE IN WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD CORE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL LEAD TO
PROGRESSIVE THICKNESS FALLS AND COOLING TEMPS. THE 850 0C ISOTHERM
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN THE GFS/EC MEAN SOLUTION WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT IF INDEED HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS WHICH IT LOOKS TO.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS VERY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* LIGHT NORTH/VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMING EAST MONDAY.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE DAY LAKE
BREEZE HAS PUSHED THROUGH ORD/MDW AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING...
THOUGH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND LAKE BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO
EAST AND BECOME MORE NORTH/VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN DRY AIR MASS WITH WEAKENING
GRADIENT NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH. OVERNIGHT WINDS LIKELY TO BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM AWAY FROM THE CITY OF CHICAGO. CLOSER TO
THE CITY/LAKE...WILL LIKELY SEE A LAND BREEZE DEVELOP WITH NNW
WINDS OR JUST VARIABLE DIRECTION DEVELOPING. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO TURN EASTERLY AROUND 10 KT AFTER LOW LEVEL MIX OUT
MONDAY MORNING...AS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY. HOWEVER...AS
DEEPER LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OFF THE LAKE
TOWARD MORNING THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE-INDUCED
STRATOCU TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST IL. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS
OF THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE MAY BE A
BIT OVERDONE...SO CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING A SOLID CEILING INTO
ORD/MDW IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP...IT
WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME AND ABOVE 2500 FT AGL.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...SHRA/FEW TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. MAINLY VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
WINDS WILL VEER TO OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT MID
AFTERNOON BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES ON ACROSS ONTARIO TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE APPROACHING STRENGTHENING LOW
WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN INCREASE TO MODERATE AND FRESH BREEZES
WHILE VEERING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
ILZ039...3 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM MONDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
826 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 815 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2013
In the process of updating the ZFP this evening to include a Frost
Advisory for areas mainly north of a Lewistown to Bloomington line.
Early morning temperatures are expected to drop into the middle
30s across the north for a time Monday morning allowing frost to
form, especially away from the metropolitan areas of Peoria and
Bloomington. Further south, have added some patchy frost for early
Monday morning. Early evening temperatures were dropping off rapidly
with readings already in the middle 40s across the far north (Galesburg
and Lacon). The latest HRRR model suggests the threat for a more
prolonged period of calm winds north of I-74 in the 09z-12z time
frame as the center of the high will shift just north of our area.
Early evening dew points have settled into the lower to middle 30s
and that usually gives us a good idea where the early morning low
may dip to with this type of radiational cooling setup, especially
in low lying areas and in locations away from the city. Have edged
the overnight lows down a degree or two further south and as mentioned
above, added some patchy frost as well, but the best threat for our
first frost of the season will be mainly north of I-74 early Monday
morning. The updated zones should be out by 0145z.
Smith
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 610 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2013
VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period (00z Tue).
High pressure will track to our north tonight and finally pull away
from the area during the day on Monday. A clear sky is expected
tonight into a good part of Monday before high level clouds start
to move in ahead of our next weather system slated to bring in
some rain late Monday night or Tuesday morning. Surface winds tonight
will be from the northeast to east at 3 to 8 kts, and then winds
will gradually veer more into the east and southeast at around 10
kts by Monday afternoon.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2013
After collaboration with DVN and LOT, have added patchy frost to
areas across the northwest forecast area and made some minor
adjustments to other grids for late tonight and early Monday morning. Do
not expect frost to be widespread enough to warrant an advisory,
but wind protected areas may see some patchy frost.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
519 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
253 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG IT. DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW
BRINGING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TUESDAY AND LINGERING SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM GREEN BAY TO AURORA TO
CHAMPAIGN AND IT WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THIS EVENING. STILL ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BEHIND
IT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MAX CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG. THE BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO WI. THAT BEING SAID A BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTN. HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES. TEMPS WILL FALL
UNDER THE SHOWERS...BUT PLACES OUT WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A BIT
AS THE SUN BREAKS OUT AGAIN.
LOWERED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AND CLEAR SKIES. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE MIN
DEWPOINT...BUT WONDERING IF SOME ISOLATED AREAS WILL DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TOMORROW WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND CONTINUES EAST REACHING
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS PLEASANT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLER BY THE LAKE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW. IT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BLOCKING LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
SLOWLY MOVING LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL THE GFS
AND NAM ARE MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW...AND WILL
BASE THE FORECAST OFF OF THE SLOWER ECMWF PER THE WPC GUIDANCE
EVALUATION.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BUT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...AND THE LOW REMAINS NEGATIVELY STACKED
WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW ALSO HAS JET
SUPPORT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY WHILE THE LOW
IS IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION. THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS WEAK TUESDAY SO KEPT
JUST A CHANCE OF TS GOING...WITH AFTN CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 500
J/KG OR LESS. MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...WITH PWATS OF
1-1.5 INCHES.
THE LOWS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A FEW DRY HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE.
FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING A BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. THEN BACK TO REALITY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
EXTENDED...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND WHERE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A COOLING TREND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE JET REMAINS
OVERHEAD KEEPING THE MUCH COOLER AIR TO OUR NORTH. IN GENERAL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN FOR LATE THIS WEEK...AND NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOOKING COLD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* VFR CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT THIS NEXT HOUR.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST THIS NEXT HOUR...WITH MID
TEEN GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BE QUICKER THAN
INITIALLY THOUGHT...WHICH MEANS A SLIGHTLY EARLIER DEPARTURE OF
MVFR CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY. HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY QUICKER IN TAFS.
//PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL
AND NORTHWEST IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. A MORE DEFINED AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS FROM SE WI THROUGH MORRIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPO OF TSRA AT ORD.
WHILE IT IS TWO HOURS...THE WINDOW OF TIME FOR THUNDER IS LIKELY
45 MIN OR LESS /IT JUST HAPPENS TO SPLIT THE 19Z HOUR/. WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN SSW THROUGH THE STORMS...AND IF THE STORMS DO
SHIFT THE WINDS IT WOULD ONLY BE SLIGHTLY TO SW.
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE BEHIND THE
SHRA/TSRA FOR A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW WITH A FEW SITES IN WESTERN IL
INDICATING CIGS AT OR BELOW 1500 FT...BUT THAT LOW OF CIG WILL NOT
LAST LONG IF IT OCCURS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL TURN W TO WNW
AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE ENOUGH ON SUNDAY TO
LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AT ORD AND
MDW...AND AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS MOST FAVORED IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
300 PM CDT
A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE INCHES IN EASTERN
MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA. NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST....REACHING
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL VEER TO OUT
OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN ON ACROSS ONTARIO TO WESTERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
301 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
253 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG IT. DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW
BRINGING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TUESDAY AND LINGERING SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM GREEN BAY TO AURORA TO
CHAMPAIGN AND IT WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THIS EVENING. STILL ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BEHIND
IT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MAX CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG. THE BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO WI. THAT BEING SAID A BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTN. HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES. TEMPS WILL FALL
UNDER THE SHOWERS...BUT PLACES OUT WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A BIT
AS THE SUN BREAKS OUT AGAIN.
LOWERED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AND CLEAR SKIES. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE MIN
DEWPOINT...BUT WONDERING IF SOME ISOLATED AREAS WILL DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TOMORROW WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND CONTINUES EAST REACHING
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS PLEASANT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLER BY THE LAKE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW. IT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BLOCKING LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
SLOWLY MOVING LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL THE GFS
AND NAM ARE MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW...AND WILL
BASE THE FORECAST OFF OF THE SLOWER ECMWF PER THE WPC GUIDANCE
EVALUATION.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BUT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...AND THE LOW REMAINS NEGATIVELY STACKED
WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW ALSO HAS JET
SUPPORT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY WHILE THE LOW
IS IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION. THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS WEAK TUESDAY SO KEPT
JUST A CHANCE OF TS GOING...WITH AFTN CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 500
J/KG OR LESS. MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...WITH PWATS OF
1-1.5 INCHES.
THE LOWS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A FEW DRY HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE.
FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING A BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. THEN BACK TO REALITY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
EXTENDED...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND WHERE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A COOLING TREND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE JET REMAINS
OVERHEAD KEEPING THE MUCH COOLER AIR TO OUR NORTH. IN GENERAL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN FOR LATE THIS WEEK...AND NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOOKING COLD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* A 30-45 MIN PERIOD OF TSRA AT/NEAR ORD AND POTENTIALLY MDW
PRIOR TO 20Z.
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING FOR A 2-3 HR PERIOD AFTER
THE SHRA/TSRA. BRIEF CIGS AROUND 1500 FT POSSIBLE.
* WIND SHIFT TO WSW AND EVENTUALLY W OR WNW BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z.
* WINDS TURNING NE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL
AND NORTHWEST IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. A MORE DEFINED AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS FROM SE WI THROUGH MORRIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPO OF TSRA AT ORD.
WHILE IT IS TWO HOURS...THE WINDOW OF TIME FOR THUNDER IS LIKELY
45 MIN OR LESS /IT JUST HAPPENS TO SPLIT THE 19Z HOUR/. WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN SSW THROUGH THE STORMS...AND IF THE STORMS DO
SHIFT THE WINDS IT WOULD ONLY BE SLIGHTLY TO SW.
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE BEHIND THE
SHRA/TSRA FOR A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW WITH A FEW SITES IN WESTERN IL
INDICATING CIGS AT OR BELOW 1500 FT...BUT THAT LOW OF CIG WILL NOT
LAST LONG IF IT OCCURS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL TURN W TO WNW
AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE ENOUGH ON SUNDAY TO
LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AT ORD AND
MDW...AND AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS MOST FAVORED IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA TIMING AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA
OCCURRING AT ORD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA AT LEAST NEARBY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AT ORD AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT
MDW. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IF CIGS DROP TO 1500 FT IT WILL BE
BRIEF /LIKELY UNDER ONE HOUR/.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WSW WINDS BY 23Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING OF WINDS TURNING
NE ON SUNDAY.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
300 PM CDT
A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE INCHES IN EASTERN
MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA. NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST....REACHING
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL VEER TO OUT
OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN ON ACROSS ONTARIO TO WESTERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
254 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
253 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG IT. DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW
BRINGING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TUESDAY AND LINGERING SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM GREEN BAY TO AURORA TO
CHAMPAIGN AND IT WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THIS EVENING. STILL ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BEHIND
IT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MAX CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG. THE BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO WI. THAT BEING SAID A BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTN. HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES. TEMPS WILL FALL
UNDER THE SHOWERS...BUT PLACES OUT WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A BIT
AS THE SUN BREAKS OUT AGAIN.
LOWERED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AND CLEAR SKIES. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE MIN
DEWPOINT...BUT WONDERING IF SOME ISOLATED AREAS WILL DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TOMORROW WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND CONTINUES EAST REACHING
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS PLEASANT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLER BY THE LAKE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW. IT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BLOCKING LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
SLOWLY MOVING LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL THE GFS
AND NAM ARE MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW...AND WILL
BASE THE FORECAST OFF OF THE SLOWER ECMWF PER THE WPC GUIDANCE
EVALUATION.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BUT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...AND THE LOW REMAINS NEGATIVELY STACKED
WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW ALSO HAS JET
SUPPORT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY WHILE THE LOW
IS IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION. THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS WEAK TUESDAY SO KEPT
JUST A CHANCE OF TS GOING...WITH AFTN CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 500
J/KG OR LESS. MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...WITH PWATS OF
1-1.5 INCHES.
THE LOWS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A FEW DRY HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE.
FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING A BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. THEN BACK TO REALITY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
EXTENDED...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND WHERE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A COOLING TREND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE JET REMAINS
OVERHEAD KEEPING THE MUCH COOLER AIR TO OUR NORTH. IN GENERAL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN FOR LATE THIS WEEK...AND NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOOKING COLD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* A 30-45 MIN PERIOD OF TSRA AT/NEAR ORD AND POTENTIALLY MDW
PRIOR TO 20Z.
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING FOR A 2-3 HR PERIOD AFTER
THE SHRA/TSRA. BRIEF CIGS AROUND 1500 FT POSSIBLE.
* WIND SHIFT TO WSW AND EVENTUALLY W OR WNW BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z.
* WINDS TURNING NE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL
AND NORTHWEST IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. A MORE DEFINED AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS FROM SE WI THROUGH MORRIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPO OF TSRA AT ORD.
WHILE IT IS TWO HOURS...THE WINDOW OF TIME FOR THUNDER IS LIKELY
45 MIN OR LESS /IT JUST HAPPENS TO SPLIT THE 19Z HOUR/. WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN SSW THROUGH THE STORMS...AND IF THE STORMS DO
SHIFT THE WINDS IT WOULD ONLY BE SLIGHTLY TO SW.
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE BEHIND THE
SHRA/TSRA FOR A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW WITH A FEW SITES IN WESTERN IL
INDICATING CIGS AT OR BELOW 1500 FT...BUT THAT LOW OF CIG WILL NOT
LAST LONG IF IT OCCURS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL TURN W TO WNW
AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE ENOUGH ON SUNDAY TO
LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AT ORD AND
MDW...AND AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS MOST FAVORED IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA TIMING AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA
OCCURRING AT ORD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA AT LEAST NEARBY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AT ORD AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT
MDW. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IF CIGS DROP TO 1500 FT IT WILL BE
BRIEF /LIKELY UNDER ONE HOUR/.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WSW WINDS BY 23Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING OF WINDS TURNING
NE ON SUNDAY.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
125 AM CDT
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF 991 MB WAS OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
FAR EASTERN MANITOBA AND SLOWLY FILL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP INTO THE
20-25 KT RANGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH
30 KTS NOT TOO FAR ABOVE THE THERMALLY STABLE MARINE LAYER. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS INITIALLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY MORE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MIXED LAYER WILL DEEPEN BEHIND THE FRONT BY
THIS EVENING AS COOL ADVECTION STEEPENS LAPSE RATES OVER THE
WATER...WHICH MAY THEN ALLOW FOR 30 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NORTH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
QUICKLY INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ALLOWING A QUICK DECREASE IN WINDS
AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME DETAILS DIFFER
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS...THIS LOW IS BASICALLY FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING CENTRAL OR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND INCREASING ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN
WEAKEN BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE LOW CROSSES THE LAKE. DETAILS IN
FORECAST WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
1015 AM CDT
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO GOING FORECAST. THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES
HOWEVER WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AT MOST
MOVING EAST...ALONG WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...WITH A FEW PLACES IN NORTH CENTRAL IL LIKELY TO TOP OUT ONLY
IN THE UPPER 60S.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES
TO SEE A NARROW DEEP MOIST PLUME AHEAD OF ITS HEIGHT FALLS...AND
THAT AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CORRIDOR BASICALLY
DEFINES WHERE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLUMN IS SIMPLY TOO DRY
ELSEWHERE. THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAS
WEAKENED SINCE EARLY MORNING WITH A DECAY OF THE LLJ/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WOULD EXPECT TO STILL SEE A COVERAGE RE-INCREASE IN
SHOWERS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR AS MID-LEVEL JET AND SHEARED
SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL MO PROGRESSES NORTHEAST AND PROVIDES
SLIGHTLY MORE FORCING. THE SURFACE FRONT ALREADY IS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND JUST OVERALL IMPROVED
CONVERGENCE COULD HELP AN INCREASE IN SOME SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WELL. THE 12Z DVN SOUNDING HAD STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
850-700MB YIELDING TOTAL TOTAL AND K-INDEX VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED THUNDER AND WE DID SEE THAT EARLIER. RAP INDICATIONS ARE
FOR THE SAME AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO EVOLVE EAST SO WE MAINTAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE BATTLING CLOUD COVER IN NORTH CENTRAL IL. WITH
FROPA OCCURRING THERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
HAVE TOO MUCH LONGER TO RECOVER ESPECIALLY WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL
LOW CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE HOURS. SO DID INCH DOWN FORECAST MAXS
THERE SOMEWHAT . IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH
FROPA OR BASICALLY HOLD STEADY. THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST IN...WILL CONTINUE TO WARM PRIOR TO
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ARRIVAL.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
256 AM CDT
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LIFTING NORTH INTO MANITOBA...WHILE A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING
AROUND THE MAIN LOW...MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER WAVE
IS NOTED FARTHER SOUTH...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO EASTERN
IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN WAVE...OTHERWISE THE FRONT HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ALONG IT. EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA...THEN A BRIEF LULL MAY OCCUR
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ARRIVE OVER THE ARE MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.
GUIDANCE STILL HINTING AT SOME VERY MODEST INSTABILITY...WITH LOW 60
DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT BY AND LARGE THE
REGION STILL WILL BE SPLIT BY THE BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING TO THE
NORTH AND BETTER INSTABILITY WELL SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE TIED
VERY CLOSELY TO AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO THE ENTIRE DAY
WILL NOT BE A WASH...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW WHERE SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT SWEEPS OVERHEAD...THEN QUICKLY DRYING OUT
BEHIND.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE COLD
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALLOWS H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 4-5C BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AREAS
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE FOX RIVER VALLEY SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE
ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET. BLENDED TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE...AND
CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE
30S...THOUGH THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF CHICAGO WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES PROPPED UP AROUND 50 IN THE METRO AREA.
FOR SUNDAY...CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S GIVEN THE H85 TEMPS...AND H92 TEMPS AROUND 14C. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 60S NEAR THE LAKE FRONT WHERE ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
INLAND. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST
RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNCHANGED HEADING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ENE OVER WISCONSIN. ONCE AGAIN...
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY...AND LEANED TOWARDS
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME MONDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION OVER
SPREADING THE AREA. ALSO SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
STRONG WAVE MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING
WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY WITH
A CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER WI/MN. WHILE THERE ARE STILL TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR BETWEEN MODELS. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A LULL IN PRECIP BEFORE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW TO
END THE WORK WEEK AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH A
BROAD TROUGH SPANNING THE EASTERN CONUS. INTERESTINGLY..TAKING A
PEAK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A VERY COLD
AIRMASS SETTLING OVER ONTARIO //H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -10 TO -12C//
WITH MODELS HINTING TO SOME DEGREE THAT THIS COLD AIR WILL MAKE A
PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SUB ZERO H85 TEMPS
LOCALLY...WHICH IF IT PANS OUT WOULD MAY LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* A 30-45 MIN PERIOD OF TSRA AT/NEAR ORD AND POTENTIALLY MDW
PRIOR TO 20Z.
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING FOR A 2-3 HR PERIOD AFTER
THE SHRA/TSRA. BRIEF CIGS AROUND 1500 FT POSSIBLE.
* WIND SHIFT TO WSW AND EVENTUALLY W OR WNW BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z.
* WINDS TURNING NE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL
AND NORTHWEST IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. A MORE DEFINED AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS FROM SE WI THROUGH MORRIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPO OF TSRA AT ORD.
WHILE IT IS TWO HOURS...THE WINDOW OF TIME FOR THUNDER IS LIKELY
45 MIN OR LESS /IT JUST HAPPENS TO SPLIT THE 19Z HOUR/. WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN SSW THROUGH THE STORMS...AND IF THE STORMS DO
SHIFT THE WINDS IT WOULD ONLY BE SLIGHTLY TO SW.
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE BEHIND THE
SHRA/TSRA FOR A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW WITH A FEW SITES IN WESTERN IL
INDICATING CIGS AT OR BELOW 1500 FT...BUT THAT LOW OF CIG WILL NOT
LAST LONG IF IT OCCURS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL TURN W TO WNW
AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE ENOUGH ON SUNDAY TO
LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AT ORD AND
MDW...AND AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS MOST FAVORED IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA TIMING AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA
OCCURRING AT ORD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA AT LEAST NEARBY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AT ORD AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT
MDW. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IF CIGS DROP TO 1500 FT IT WILL BE
BRIEF /LIKELY UNDER ONE HOUR/.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WSW WINDS BY 23Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EARLY AFTERNOON TIMING OF WINDS TURNING
NE ON SUNDAY.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
125 AM CDT
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF 991 MB WAS OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
FAR EASTERN MANITOBA AND SLOWLY FILL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP INTO THE
20-25 KT RANGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH
30 KTS NOT TOO FAR ABOVE THE THERMALLY STABLE MARINE LAYER. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS INITIALLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY MORE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MIXED LAYER WILL DEEPEN BEHIND THE FRONT BY
THIS EVENING AS COOL ADVECTION STEEPENS LAPSE RATES OVER THE
WATER...WHICH MAY THEN ALLOW FOR 30 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NORTH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
QUICKLY INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ALLOWING A QUICK DECREASE IN WINDS
AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME DETAILS DIFFER
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS...THIS LOW IS BASICALLY FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING CENTRAL OR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND INCREASING ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN
WEAKEN BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE LOW CROSSES THE LAKE. DETAILS IN
FORECAST WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
1015 AM CDT
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO GOING FORECAST. THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES
HOWEVER WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AT MOST
MOVING EAST...ALONG WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...WITH A FEW PLACES IN NORTH CENTRAL IL LIKELY TO TOP OUT ONLY
IN THE UPPER 60S.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES
TO SEE A NARROW DEEP MOIST PLUME AHEAD OF ITS HEIGHT FALLS...AND
THAT AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CORRIDOR BASICALLY
DEFINES WHERE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLUMN IS SIMPLY TOO DRY
ELSEWHERE. THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAS
WEAKENED SINCE EARLY MORNING WITH A DECAY OF THE LLJ/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WOULD EXPECT TO STILL SEE A COVERAGE RE-INCREASE IN
SHOWERS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR AS MID-LEVEL JET AND SHEARED
SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL MO PROGRESSES NORTHEAST AND PROVIDES
SLIGHTLY MORE FORCING. THE SURFACE FRONT ALREADY IS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND JUST OVERALL IMPROVED
CONVERGENCE COULD HELP AN INCREASE IN SOME SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WELL. THE 12Z DVN SOUNDING HAD STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
850-700MB YIELDING TOTAL TOTAL AND K-INDEX VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED THUNDER AND WE DID SEE THAT EARLIER. RAP INDICATIONS ARE
FOR THE SAME AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO EVOLVE EAST SO WE MAINTAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE BATTLING CLOUD COVER IN NORTH CENTRAL IL. WITH
FROPA OCCURRING THERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
HAVE TOO MUCH LONGER TO RECOVER ESPECIALLY WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL
LOW CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE HOURS. SO DID INCH DOWN FORECAST MAXS
THERE SOMEWHAT . IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH
FROPA OR BASICALLY HOLD STEADY. THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST IN...WILL CONTINUE TO WARM PRIOR TO
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ARRIVAL.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
256 AM CDT
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LIFTING NORTH INTO MANITOBA...WHILE A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING
AROUND THE MAIN LOW...MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER WAVE
IS NOTED FARTHER SOUTH...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO EASTERN
IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN WAVE...OTHERWISE THE FRONT HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ALONG IT. EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA...THEN A BRIEF LULL MAY OCCUR
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ARRIVE OVER THE ARE MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.
GUIDANCE STILL HINTING AT SOME VERY MODEST INSTABILITY...WITH LOW 60
DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT BY AND LARGE THE
REGION STILL WILL BE SPLIT BY THE BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING TO THE
NORTH AND BETTER INSTABILITY WELL SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE TIED
VERY CLOSELY TO AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO THE ENTIRE DAY
WILL NOT BE A WASH...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW WHERE SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT SWEEPS OVERHEAD...THEN QUICKLY DRYING OUT
BEHIND.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE COLD
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALLOWS H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 4-5C BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AREAS
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE FOX RIVER VALLEY SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE
ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET. BLENDED TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE...AND
CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE
30S...THOUGH THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF CHICAGO WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES PROPPED UP AROUND 50 IN THE METRO AREA.
FOR SUNDAY...CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S GIVEN THE H85 TEMPS...AND H92 TEMPS AROUND 14C. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 60S NEAR THE LAKE FRONT WHERE ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
INLAND. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST
RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNCHANGED HEADING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ENE OVER WISCONSIN. ONCE AGAIN...
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY...AND LEANED TOWARDS
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME MONDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION OVER
SPREADING THE AREA. ALSO SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
STRONG WAVE MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING
WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY WITH
A CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER WI/MN. WHILE THERE ARE STILL TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR BETWEEN MODELS. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A LULL IN PRECIP BEFORE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW TO
END THE WORK WEEK AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH A
BROAD TROUGH SPANNING THE EASTERN CONUS. INTERESTINGLY..TAKING A
PEAK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A VERY COLD
AIRMASS SETTLING OVER ONTARIO //H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -10 TO -12C//
WITH MODELS HINTING TO SOME DEGREE THAT THIS COLD AIR WILL MAKE A
PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SUB ZERO H85 TEMPS
LOCALLY...WHICH IF IT PANS OUT WOULD MAY LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 1730Z-2000Z WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER.
* A LIKELY 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF 1700-2500 FT CIGS BEHIND THE
SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
* WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
MDB/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA HAS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM IT
WHICH IS JUST NOW REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR THE QUAD
CITIES. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES APPEAR TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTIVE UPPER FLOW. THE EASTWARD
PUSH OF THIS BAND HAS BEEN SLOW BUT IT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL TRY TO CATCH UP TO THE UPPER FORCING
THROUGH THE DAY SO ANY GAP BETWEEN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY NEAR RFD
AND ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT TO THE WEST MAY CLOSE WITH TIME. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FEW HOURS OF TEMPO SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT THUNDER
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED OVER THE AREA WITH THE THREAT TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THESE LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED SO
WILL CARRY PREVAILING LOWER END VFR CLOUD COVER.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED WITH TIME THIS
MORNING AND TURN MORE SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHWEST THEN WEST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL EASE UP OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES KEEPING QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER IN
THE AREA THROUGH 20Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IF MVFR CIGS TIMING AFTER THE SHOWERS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THEM STAYING ABOVE 1500 FT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
125 AM CDT
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF 991 MB WAS OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
FAR EASTERN MANITOBA AND SLOWLY FILL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP INTO THE
20-25 KT RANGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH
30 KTS NOT TOO FAR ABOVE THE THERMALLY STABLE MARINE LAYER. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS INITIALLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY MORE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MIXED LAYER WILL DEEPEN BEHIND THE FRONT BY
THIS EVENING AS COOL ADVECTION STEEPENS LAPSE RATES OVER THE
WATER...WHICH MAY THEN ALLOW FOR 30 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NORTH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
QUICKLY INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ALLOWING A QUICK DECREASE IN WINDS
AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME DETAILS DIFFER
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS...THIS LOW IS BASICALLY FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING CENTRAL OR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND INCREASING ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN
WEAKEN BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE LOW CROSSES THE LAKE. DETAILS IN
FORECAST WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1016 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
1015 AM CDT
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO GOING FORECAST. THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES
HOWEVER WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AT MOST
MOVING EAST...ALONG WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...WITH A FEW PLACES IN NORTH CENTRAL IL LIKELY TO TOP OUT ONLY
IN THE UPPER 60S.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES
TO SEE A NARROW DEEP MOIST PLUME AHEAD OF ITS HEIGHT FALLS...AND
THAT AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CORRIDOR BASICALLY
DEFINES WHERE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLUMN IS SIMPLY TOO DRY
ELSEWHERE. THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAS
WEAKENED SINCE EARLY MORNING WITH A DECAY OF THE LLJ/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WOULD EXPECT TO STILL SEE A COVERAGE RE-INCREASE IN
SHOWERS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR AS MID-LEVEL JET AND SHEARED
SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL MO PROGRESSES NORTHEAST AND PROVIDES
SLIGHTLY MORE FORCING. THE SURFACE FRONT ALREADY IS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND JUST OVERALL IMPROVED
CONVERGENCE COULD HELP AN INCREASE IN SOME SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WELL. THE 12Z DVN SOUNDING HAD STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
850-700MB YIELDING TOTAL TOTAL AND K-INDEX VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED THUNDER AND WE DID SEE THAT EARLIER. RAP INDICATIONS ARE
FOR THE SAME AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO EVOLVE EAST SO WE MAINTAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES ARE BATTLING CLOUD COVER IN NORTH CENTRAL IL. WITH
FROPA OCCURRING THERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
HAVE TOO MUCH LONGER TO RECOVER ESPECIALLY WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL
LOW CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE HOURS. SO DID INCH DOWN FORECAST MAXS
THERE SOMEWHAT . IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH
FROPA OR BASICALLY HOLD STEADY. THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST IN...WILL CONTINUE TO WARM PRIOR TO
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ARRIVAL.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
256 AM CDT
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LIFTING NORTH INTO MANITOBA...WHILE A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING
AROUND THE MAIN LOW...MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER WAVE
IS NOTED FARTHER SOUTH...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO EASTERN
IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN WAVE...OTHERWISE THE FRONT HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ALONG IT. EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA...THEN A BRIEF LULL MAY OCCUR
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ARRIVE OVER THE ARE MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA.
GUIDANCE STILL HINTING AT SOME VERY MODEST INSTABILITY...WITH LOW 60
DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THIS IN MIND...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT BY AND LARGE THE
REGION STILL WILL BE SPLIT BY THE BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING TO THE
NORTH AND BETTER INSTABILITY WELL SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE TIED
VERY CLOSELY TO AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO THE ENTIRE DAY
WILL NOT BE A WASH...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW WHERE SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT SWEEPS OVERHEAD...THEN QUICKLY DRYING OUT
BEHIND.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE COLD
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALLOWS H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 4-5C BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AREAS
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE FOX RIVER VALLEY SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE
ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET. BLENDED TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE...AND
CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE
30S...THOUGH THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF CHICAGO WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES PROPPED UP AROUND 50 IN THE METRO AREA.
FOR SUNDAY...CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S GIVEN THE H85 TEMPS...AND H92 TEMPS AROUND 14C. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 60S NEAR THE LAKE FRONT WHERE ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
INLAND. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST
RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNCHANGED HEADING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ENE OVER WISCONSIN. ONCE AGAIN...
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY...AND LEANED TOWARDS
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME MONDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION OVER
SPREADING THE AREA. ALSO SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
STRONG WAVE MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING
WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY WITH
A CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER WI/MN. WHILE THERE ARE STILL TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR BETWEEN MODELS. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A LULL IN PRECIP BEFORE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW TO
END THE WORK WEEK AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH A
BROAD TROUGH SPANNING THE EASTERN CONUS. INTERESTINGLY..TAKING A
PEAK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A VERY COLD
AIRMASS SETTLING OVER ONTARIO //H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -10 TO -12C//
WITH MODELS HINTING TO SOME DEGREE THAT THIS COLD AIR WILL MAKE A
PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SUB ZERO H85 TEMPS
LOCALLY...WHICH IF IT PANS OUT WOULD MAY LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER BETWEEN 18Z-20Z.
* A POSSIBLE 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
* WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY MORNING.
MDB/MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA HAS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM IT
WHICH IS JUST NOW REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR THE QUAD
CITIES. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES APPEAR TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTIVE UPPER FLOW. THE EASTWARD
PUSH OF THIS BAND HAS BEEN SLOW BUT IT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL TRY TO CATCH UP TO THE UPPER FORCING
THROUGH THE DAY SO ANY GAP BETWEEN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY NEAR RFD
AND ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT TO THE WEST MAY CLOSE WITH TIME. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FEW HOURS OF TEMPO SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT THUNDER
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED OVER THE AREA WITH THE THREAT TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THESE LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED SO
WILL CARRY PREVAILING LOWER END VFR CLOUD COVER.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED WITH TIME THIS
MORNING AND TURN MORE SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHWEST THEN WEST WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL EASE UP OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES KEEPING QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM 17Z-20Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE IF THUNDER WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRPORT ITSELF.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IF MVFR CIGS WILL MATERIALIZE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
125 AM CDT
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF 991 MB WAS OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
FAR EASTERN MANITOBA AND SLOWLY FILL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP INTO THE
20-25 KT RANGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH
30 KTS NOT TOO FAR ABOVE THE THERMALLY STABLE MARINE LAYER. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS INITIALLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY MORE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MIXED LAYER WILL DEEPEN BEHIND THE FRONT BY
THIS EVENING AS COOL ADVECTION STEEPENS LAPSE RATES OVER THE
WATER...WHICH MAY THEN ALLOW FOR 30 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
NORTH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
QUICKLY INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ALLOWING A QUICK DECREASE IN WINDS
AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME DETAILS DIFFER
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS...THIS LOW IS BASICALLY FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING CENTRAL OR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND INCREASING ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN
WEAKEN BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE LOW CROSSES THE LAKE. DETAILS IN
FORECAST WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
605 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 604 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MANY LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN DRY THOUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF DPVA ZONE WITH
THIS VORT MAX AND PROXIMITY TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF WESTERN
GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
NARROW ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHEARING NATURE TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHORT WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SHOULD LEAD TO
EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALONG
WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PWATS DIMINISHING INTO THE 1.25 RANGE AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND STRONGEST MID/UPPER
FORCING SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE...AND THIS TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED THIS
EVENING. HAVE MADE NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO
DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND WANING
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. 18Z RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AXIS OF 250-500
J/KG MUCAPES TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOUTHERN TAIL OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLD TSRA ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. DID MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE -RW POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE
OF LINGERING WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS POSSIBLY SUSTAINING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA HIGH AND DRY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
ROUNDS THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND TAKES AIM ON THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON TIMING/SPEED OF EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH
12Z GEM SLOWER VS 12Z GFS. ECMWF IS FLIP-FLOPPING SOLUTIONS WITH NEW
12Z RUN VERY SIMILAR IN SPEED/LOCATION TO 12Z GFS. CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH IN SLOWING DOWN ARRIVAL ON TUESDAY TO BACK OFF POPS IN THE
EAST...BUT TO INCREASE TO LOW END LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE MOST FAVORED PERIOD. BEYOND THIS...TIMING
ISSUES ALREADY NOTED WITH TROUGH WARRANTS HOLDING ONTO SLGT CHC/CHC
POPS WEDS/WEDS WITH HIGHEST EAST WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER
LONGER.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS AGREEING TO SOME
EXTENT ON 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0 C. AS A RESULT...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL SETTLE IN AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURS INTO FRI AS
WEAK WAVES ROTATE THROUGH TO CONTRIBUTE MSTR...LIFT AND SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE INVERSION HGTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
A STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THE
APPROACH OF THIS SHORT WAVE HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. ANOTHER AREA OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW
IN REGARDS TO PRECIP COVERAGE FOR TERMINALS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
IOWA VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WILL
CARRY TEMPO -SHRA IN THE 22Z-02Z TIMEFRAME WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH POOLED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. WEAKENING
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LENDS EVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE TO SHRA COVERAGE AT KFWA WHERE HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO
VCSH TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT KSBN...ALTHOUGH WITH
EARLY EVENING FRONTAL TIMING AND LOSS OF PEAK INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO OMIT WITH 18Z TAFS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
356 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A RETURN TO
SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF DPVA ZONE WITH
THIS VORT MAX AND PROXIMITY TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF WESTERN
GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
NARROW ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHEARING NATURE TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHORT WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SHOULD LEAD TO
EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALONG
WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PWATS DIMINISHING INTO THE 1.25 RANGE AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND STRONGEST MID/UPPER
FORCING SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE...AND THIS TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED THIS
EVENING. HAVE MADE NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO
DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND WANING
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. 18Z RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AXIS OF 250-500
J/KG MUCAPES TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOUTHERN TAIL OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLD TSRA ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. DID MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE -RW POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE
OF LINGERING WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS POSSIBLY SUSTAINING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA HIGH AND DRY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
ROUNDS THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND TAKES AIM ON THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON TIMING/SPEED OF EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH
12Z GEM SLOWER VS 12Z GFS. ECMWF IS FLIP-FLOPPING SOLUTIONS WITH NEW
12Z RUN VERY SIMILAR IN SPEED/LOCATION TO 12Z GFS. CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH IN SLOWING DOWN ARRIVAL ON TUESDAY TO BACK OFF POPS IN THE
EAST...BUT TO INCREASE TO LOW END LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE MOST FAVORED PERIOD. BEYOND THIS...TIMING
ISSUES ALREADY NOTED WITH TROUGH WARRANTS HOLDING ONTO SLGT CHC/CHC
POPS WEDS/WEDS WITH HIGHEST EAST WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER
LONGER.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS AGREEING TO SOME
EXTENT ON 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0 C. AS A RESULT...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL SETTLE IN AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURS INTO FRI AS
WEAK WAVES ROTATE THROUGH TO CONTRIBUTE MSTR...LIFT AND SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE INVERSION HGTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
A STRONG UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THE
APPROACH OF THIS SHORT WAVE HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. ANOTHER AREA OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW
IN REGARDS TO PRECIP COVERAGE FOR TERMINALS GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
IOWA VORT MAX WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WILL
CARRY TEMPO -SHRA IN THE 22Z-02Z TIMEFRAME WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH POOLED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. WEAKENING
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LENDS EVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE TO SHRA COVERAGE AT KFWA WHERE HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO
VCSH TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT KSBN...ALTHOUGH WITH
EARLY EVENING FRONTAL TIMING AND LOSS OF PEAK INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO OMIT WITH 18Z TAFS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
234 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS. THE STRATUS AND STRATOCU OVER THE EASTERN CWA HAS GRADUALLY
BEEN ERODING WITH CU DEVELOPING TO ITS WEST. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CU AND STRATOCU TENDING TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
STRATUS AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW HAS
ADVECTED ABOUT A THIRD TO A HALF OF THE WAY WEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS IS NEAR THE KY HIGHWAY 15 CORRIDOR
IN EASTERN KY. DAYTIME HEATING MAY TEND TO WHITTLE AWAY AT THE
WESTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS ALSO
IN PLACE FOR SOME PANCAKE CU TO THE WEST OF THIS. THE STRATUS SHOULD
BECOME MORE STRATOCU AND CU IN NATURE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND
MIX OUT TO AN EXTENT. THE TUG VALLEY NEAR THE WV BORDER APPEARS TO BE
DESTINED TO BE CLOUDY THE LONGEST.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT DAYTIME HIGHS AND THEY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY A FEW DEGREES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WV BORDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST.
THE RUC BRINGS THEM A BIT FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO BREAK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS BEEN DEPICTED IN THE
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
A DYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN SITUATED TO OUR EAST FOR
DAYS IS PROVIDING A MEAGER AMOUNT OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS LED TO PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...IT MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL USE A 20 PERCENT POP OVER THE
EASTERN TIP OF THE STATE. WILL LOOK FOR ANY PRECIP TO END AS TEMPS
COOL DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST ON SUNDAY...AND WITH RESIDUAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
THUNDER THIS WEEKEND...SINCE THE CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
CAPPED BELOW THE -20C LEVEL.
WE WILL SEE VALLEY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE LIMITED IN EASTERN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
BY 0Z MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL START OFF IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXITING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND
A STRONGER CLOSED LOW ENTERING THE HUDSON BAY IN CENTRAL CANADA. THE
LOW IN CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE MID-TERM...AS IT
WILL ESTABLISH A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WHICH IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY /DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD/. BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND EXITING EASTERN KY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL RUNS ARE NOW IN
AGREEMENT THAT SOME OF THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS ERN
KY INTO MONDAY AS WELL. ADDED IN SOME MARGINAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
SHORT TERM RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONG
500MB CLOSED LOW BEGINS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PROTRUDE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW...THIS ONE STRONGER AND PULLING IN DEEP WARM MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF AS IT NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS ARE STILL IN
SOMEWHAT OF A POOR AGREEMENT BY THIS POINT...WITH LITTLE CERTAINTY AS
TO WHEN THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE ERN KY REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT...BUT DO EXPECT SOME PRECIP TO BEGIN
MOVING IN BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
KY...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET IN FOR A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE FRONT
PASSES...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY DROP DOWN TO
MORE SEASONABLE /IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW/ AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
THE STRATUS AND STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF JKL CONTINUES TO LIFT
AND MIXOUT THOUGH IFR IS POSSIBLE AT SJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE...CU IN THE VFR RANGE SHOULD DEVELOP FURTHER WEST
NEAR JKL...LOZ AND SME WITH THIS TENDING TO DISSIPATE AFTER 21Z. SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FROM JKL SOUTHEAST AND EAST. HOWEVER...VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
AGAIN AROUND 6Z...BUT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG WITH VIS
DOWN TO AIRPORT MINS OR BELOW BETWEEN 8Z AND 13Z AT LOZ AND SME AND
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA. OTHERWISE...SOME CU NEAR 5KFT
AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1134 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
STRATUS AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW HAS
ADVECTED ABOUT A THIRD TO A HALF OF THE WAY WEST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS IS NEAR THE KY HIGHWAY 15 CORRIDOR
IN EASTERN KY. DAYTIME HEATING MAY TEND TO WHITTLE AWAY AT THE
WESTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS ALSO
IN PLACE FOR SOME PANCAKE CU TO THE WEST OF THIS. THE STRATUS SHOULD
BECOME MORE STRATOCU AND CU IN NATURE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND
MIX OUT TO AN EXTENT. THE TUG VALLEY NEAR THE WV BORDER APPEARS TO BE
DESTINED TO BE CLOUDY THE LONGEST.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT DAYTIME HIGHS AND THEY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY A FEW DEGREES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WV BORDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST.
THE RUC BRINGS THEM A BIT FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO BREAK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS BEEN DEPICTED IN THE
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
A DYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN SITUATED TO OUR EAST FOR
DAYS IS PROVIDING A MEAGER AMOUNT OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS LED TO PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...IT MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL USE A 20 PERCENT POP OVER THE
EASTERN TIP OF THE STATE. WILL LOOK FOR ANY PRECIP TO END AS TEMPS
COOL DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST ON SUNDAY...AND WITH RESIDUAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
THUNDER THIS WEEKEND...SINCE THE CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
CAPPED BELOW THE -20C LEVEL.
WE WILL SEE VALLEY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE LIMITED IN EASTERN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
BY 0Z MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL START OFF IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXITING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND
A STRONGER CLOSED LOW ENTERING THE HUDSON BAY IN CENTRAL CANADA. THE
LOW IN CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE MID-TERM...AS IT
WILL ESTABLISH A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WHICH IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY /DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD/. BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND EXITING EASTERN KY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL RUNS ARE NOW IN
AGREEMENT THAT SOME OF THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS ERN
KY INTO MONDAY AS WELL. ADDED IN SOME MARGINAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
SHORT TERM RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONG
500MB CLOSED LOW BEGINS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PROTRUDE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW...THIS ONE STRONGER AND PULLING IN DEEP WARM MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF AS IT NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS ARE STILL IN
SOMEWHAT OF A POOR AGREEMENT BY THIS POINT...WITH LITTLE CERTAINTY AS
TO WHEN THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE ERN KY REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT...BUT DO EXPECT SOME PRECIP TO BEGIN
MOVING IN BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
KY...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET IN FOR A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE FRONT
PASSES...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY DROP DOWN TO
MORE SEASONABLE /IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW/ AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WERE SPREADING WESTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST OF THE CLOUD DECK...
VALLEY FOG WAS PREVALENT NEAR RIVERS...LAKES...AND LARGE STREAMS...
BRINGING AREAS OF VLIFR. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESSION...BUT
ALSO SLOWLY RISE AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP WITH TIME TODAY...GIVING WAY
TO MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
758 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
LOW CLOUDS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST.
THE RUC BRINGS THEM A BIT FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING BEFORE THEY BEGIN
TO BREAK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS BEEN DEPICTED IN THE
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
A DYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN SITUATED TO OUR EAST FOR
DAYS IS PROVIDING A MEAGER AMOUNT OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS LED TO PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...IT MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL USE A 20 PERCENT POP OVER THE
EASTERN TIP OF THE STATE. WILL LOOK FOR ANY PRECIP TO END AS TEMPS
COOL DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST ON SUNDAY...AND WITH RESIDUAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
THUNDER THIS WEEKEND...SINCE THE CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
CAPPED BELOW THE -20C LEVEL.
WE WILL SEE VALLEY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE LIMITED IN EASTERN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
BY 0Z MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL START OFF IN A GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXITING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...A WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND
A STRONGER CLOSED LOW ENTERING THE HUDSON BAY IN CENTRAL CANADA. THE
LOW IN CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE MID-TERM...AS IT
WILL ESTABLISH A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WHICH IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY /DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD/. BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND EXITING EASTERN KY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL RUNS ARE NOW IN
AGREEMENT THAT SOME OF THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS ERN
KY INTO MONDAY AS WELL. ADDED IN SOME MARGINAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
SHORT TERM RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONG
500MB CLOSED LOW BEGINS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PROTRUDE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW...THIS ONE STRONGER AND PULLING IN DEEP WARM MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF AS IT NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODELS ARE STILL IN
SOMEWHAT OF A POOR AGREEMENT BY THIS POINT...WITH LITTLE CERTAINTY AS
TO WHEN THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE ERN KY REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT...BUT DO EXPECT SOME PRECIP TO BEGIN
MOVING IN BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
KY...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET IN FOR A VERY SHORT TIME
PERIOD ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE FRONT
PASSES...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY DROP DOWN TO
MORE SEASONABLE /IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW/ AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WERE SPREADING WESTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST OF THE CLOUD DECK...
VALLEY FOG WAS PREVALENT NEAR RIVERS...LAKES...AND LARGE STREAMS...
BRINGING AREAS OF VLIFR. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESSION...BUT
ALSO SLOWLY RISE AND BEGIN TO BREAK UP WITH TIME TODAY...GIVING WAY
TO MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
957 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MAINLY CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING. A SLOW
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A PORTION
OF THE HIGH RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1015MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF
THE NC/SC COAST WITH A STEADY PRESSURE TENDENCY. MEANWHILE...A
~1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
COAST OF MAINE IS SLOWLY BUILDING SSW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REVEALED BY +2MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...A
MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE COAST ABOVE THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE LOW. THE PRIMARY MOIST FRONTAL BAND (DOWNSTREAM
OF THE LOW) IS WELL OFF THE COAST OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...A MOIST AIRSTREAM CONTINUES TO FLOW WESTWARD
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA...WITH IR SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT SUGGESTING
SOME LIFT WITHIN THIS AIRSTREAM. THE LATEST RUC BRINGS THIS LIFT
INTO NE NC/FAR SE VA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SO A PERIOD
OF LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS. WITH NE
FLOW REMAINING BREEZY...LOWS WILL AVG 60-65 OVER SE VA/NE NC
...MID- UPPER 50S NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MON WILL GENLY BEGIN CLOUDY AND DAMP ONCE AGAIN...BUT SLOW DRYING
FROM THE NNE WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE DAY. MDL TIME SECTIONS (WHICH
GENERALLY HOLD ONTO MSTR UP TO 3-4K FT) WILL HANG ONTO CLDY/DAMP
CONDS WELL THROUGH THE DAY MON ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...WHILE SKIES
BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACRS THE NORTH. HIGHS GENLY CLOSE TO 70 F
THROUGHOUT.
WK REFLECTION OF LO PRES LINGERS INVOF CSTL NC...AND SFC HI PRES
NNE OF THE RGN WKNS MON NGT THROUGH TUE. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE
IN PRONOUNCED CLRG...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...RMNG QUITE LOW. THERE
IS NO MECHANISM TO SCOUR OUT THE LO LVL MSTR...AND CONCERNED THAT
WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PROGRESS (OR TREND) TOWARD CLRG
ERY IN THE WK...LO CLDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE (OR EVEN IF
THERE IS CLRG ON MON IN SOME PLACES - CLDS RETURN MON NGT AND/OR
TUE). RA CHCS XPCD TO BE LWR FOR TUE...HWVR...WOULD NOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST PTCHY DZ CONTG ACRS THE SE. INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE
W TUE NIGHT/WED AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS. WILL SEE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED W/ HIGHS 70-75.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WSW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WED CAUSING THE SFC
RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO
WEAKEN. LATEST ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY FRI SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO ARISE FRI
NIGHT AS GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF DUE TO
TRENDS LATELY IN WHICH COLD FRONTS STRUGGLE TO BE ABLE TO PUSH THEIR
WAY COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AROUND THE AREA EXPECT WARMER TEMPS BUT WITH A
CLOUDIER/WETTER FORECAST. STRONGEST DYNAMICS STAY WELL TO OUR NW SO
WILL ONLY CARRY A 30% POP THU THROUGH FRI MORNING FOR NOW. TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO AVG BY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 70-75 AND A BIT ABOVE
AVG AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60 SE COAST. BY
SAT...ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW AGAIN BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MON DUE TO
COMBINATION OF STRONG HI PRES BLDNG OVR NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK
AREA OF LO PRES OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE COAST. MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND OCNL -RA/-DZ WILL PERSIST OVR THE TAF SITES INTO MON
MORNG...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SBY WHERE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL BY LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
AREA OF RAIN FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL AFFECT SE VA/NE NC LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MON. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH-
EASTERLY...BUT UPR LVL WIND FROM THE NNW SHOULD RESULT IN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATER MON AND TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER THE WATERS. STRONG 1031 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
MSLP) WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NE STATES AS THE PERSISTENT
SFC LOW OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL DRIFT SWD...LOCATING JUST
OFF THE SE NC COAST. NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS TRANSITION SWD OVER THE WATERS. GOOD LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL MIX THESE STRONGER WINDS TO THE WATER...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 28 KT ALREADY OBSERVED OVER THE CNTRL BAY AND NRN COASTAL
ZONES. HIGHER PLATFORMS...INCLUDING THE CBBT...HAVE REACHED 30 KT.
STRONG WINDS HAVE BUILT WAVES TO 4-5 FT IN THE BAY AND 6 TO 10 FT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFF THE NE
COAST MON AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST. GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVER THE NRN WATERS...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SRN BAY AS NE WINDS REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT AND WAVES
3-4 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 5-6 FT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
ZONES...AS SEAS IN THE SRN ZONES BUILD TO 6-9 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE NE COAST TUES...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT
TO RELAX OVER THE WATERS AND NE WINDS TO FINALLY FALL BELOW SCA
SPEEDS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS HIGH (5-6 FT)
AND SCA HEADLINES THRU LATE TUES. WILL ALSO KEEP SCA HEADLINES IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS 4 FT WAVES ARE FORECAST. HIGH SEAS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDS...BUT CONDITIONS OVER THE
BAY/RIVER/SOUND WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH ELY WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
10 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT-THURS
MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN 1 TO 1.5 FOOT
(APPROACHING 2 FT ALONG THE COASTAL ERN SHORE DUE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS) TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED
ALL HEADLINES THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES AS MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS EITHER IMMINENT...OR CONFIDENCE OF REACHING
MINOR FLOOD LEVELS IS HIGH. STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE BAY MAY PUSH
WATER LEVELS TO NEAR MODERATE THRESHOLDS AT WINDMILL POINT AND THE
LOWER NRN NECK MONDAY MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN DURING MONDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEE CFWAKQ FOR MORE SITE-
SPECIFIC TIDAL INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
081-082-084>086-089>091-093-094-096-097.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ095-098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631-636-
637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ635.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
113 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
CNTRL CANADA TO THE WRN CONUS. WITHIN THE TROF...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER NE MANITOBA...AND A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND WAVE...BKN/OVC STRATOCU IS SPREADING S AND E
ACROSS WRN UPPER MI. WHILE REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME -SHRA OVER FAR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ONTARIO...THERE ARE HINTS OF A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES FARTHER W INTO NE MN. IN FACT...A FEW OBS HAVE
REPORTED PCPN RECENTLY.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW THIS MORNING AND PRESENCE OF SOME SPRINKLES
UPSTREAM YET...OPTED TO INCLUDE SCT SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER SPREADING
ACROSS WRN UPPER MI...DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN
EXPANSION OF STRATOCU THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THIS AFTN
SHOULD THEN LEAD TO CLEARING FROM W TO E. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT COMBINED
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 50-60PCT OF NORMAL WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT TEMP FALL...BUT TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD
OPPORTUNITY TO PLUMMET AT LEAST THRU THE EVENING HRS BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT. AS IN RECENT DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO BE REPRESENTED
BY THE BIAS CORRECTED GEM (OFTEN IT DOES A NICE JOB HANDLING
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS). EXPECT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. IF TEMP TONIGHT/MON MORNING DOES NOT FALL TO
FREEZING OR LOWER HERE AT NWS MQT...THIS YEAR WILL SET THE RECORD
FOR THE LATEST OCCURRENCE IN AUTUMN OF A MIN TEMP AT OR BLO
FREEZING. CURRENT RECORD WAS SET IN 1997.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
PERIOD STARTS 12Z MON WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 2C. SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OUT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY WARM UP...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING UP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE CWA AND PUSH THE SFC HIGH E...WHICH WILL CAP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
AS THE LOW MOVES TO SRN MN BY 12Z TUE...FGEN FORCING AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 600MB WILL MOVE INTO OR NEAR THE FAR WRN
CWA LATE MON EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
INITIALLY...THINK THAT DRY LOW LEVELS...AS INDICATED BY NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY UNTIL LATER MON NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS INCREASING OVER THE WRN CWA MON NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...INCREASING OVERALL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH
INCREASINGLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS.
THE LOW THEN MOVES TO CENTRAL WI BY 00Z WED...THEN TO NRN LOWER MI
/OR POSSIBLY FARTHER NE AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z/12 ECMWF/ BY 12Z
WED...WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING FROM JUST W OF
THE CWA AT 00Z WED TO THE CENTRAL CWA BY 12Z WED AND E OF THE CWA BY
00Z THU. 850MB TEMPS ON THE N SIDE OF THE SFC LOW /AND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/ WILL VARY FROM 3C TO 5 C OVER THE SRN CWA TO AROUND -1
OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS /WHICH ARE THE
MORE TRUSTED MODELS/ HAVE QPF SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY TUE
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT SO WILL BE INCREASING
POPS. WHAT WILL BE A BIT HARDER TO FORECAST IS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW LOW LEVEL FGEN BANDING ORIENTED W-E
OVER UPPER MI...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. OF
COURSE...ESPECIALLY LOW LEVEL...FGEN BAND LOCATION FORECASTING THIS
FAR OUT IS HAPHAZARD AS THAT BAND MAY BE FARTHER N OR S. THE BAND
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
THROUGH LATER TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING 24 HOUR QPF TOTALS TUE
AND TUE NIGHT OF AN INCH OR GREATER IN ANY PLACES THAT SIT UNDER THE
FGEN BAND FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPS FOR TUE LOOK A BIT
COOLER THAN MON WITH THE GREATER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
FOR WED...STILL GOING WITH THE 00Z/13 GFS AND 12Z/12 ECMWF /AND
SOMEWHAT WITH THE 00Z/13 GLOBAL GEM/ WHICH ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE 12Z/12 AND 00Z/12 ECMWF WERE BOTH SHOWING THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH WED INSTEAD OF TUE/TUE NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST RUNS
ALL AGREE IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE. SO...WED SHOULD
SEE PRECIP CLEARING TO THE E AS SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL NOT CHANGE THE
FORECAST COMPLETELY JUST YET...EVEN THOUGH IT HAS 50-60 POPS OVER
MUCH OF UPPER MI WED...SINCE MODELS MAY AGAIN CHANGE AND AM WEARY OF
GOING 100 PERCENT WITH JUST THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THINK THAT A
50/50 BLEND OF NEW MODEL DATA AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL COVER
THINGS ADEQUATELY FOR POPS. TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO TUE WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.
THE FORECAST BEYOND WED IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH EXACT DETAIL...BUT
GAINING CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL GENERAL PATTERN. DO AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT DRIER FORECAST FOR THU LOOKS TO BE IN
ORDER...BUT NOT READY TO GO COMPLETELY DRY JUST YET. PREVIOUS RUNS
OF THE MODELS THAT HAD THE LOW BEING SLOWER MADE FOR A MUCH WETTER
THU...BUT NEWER RUNS SEEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY THU.
WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. THE GENERAL TREND
THROUGH SAT IS THAT A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH INCREASINGLY DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. MODELS EVEN AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS FALLING AS LOW AS -7C BY LATE SAT. SYNOPTIC ENERGY FLOWING
AROUND THE TROUGH MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF PRECIP...WITH LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AS TEMPS GET COOLER...BUT WITH EXACT DETAILS OF WIND
DIRECTION AND TIMING OF ENERGY IT IS HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH
POPS. DO BELIEVE THAT FIRST CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FAR EXTENDED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AS DID THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THE MORE CERTAIN ASPECT OF THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S /AND MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 30S HIGHS/ ON SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
OTHER THAN BKN MVFR STRATOCU AT KIWD AND KSAW THROUGH 21Z...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AS SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013
W TO NW WINDS OF 15-30KT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AS PRES
GRADIENT RELAXES BTWN LOW PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AND HIGH PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LATE TONIGHT THRU AT LEAST MON
MORNING...THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 15KT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM W TO E
LATE MON AFTN THRU TUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
PRES LIFTS FROM THE WRN PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. BY TUE
AFTN...E TO NE WINDS WILL BE INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT
W TO E WED/THU AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
SFC LOW AT 3 AM WAS NEAR WINNIPEG WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST MOVING
INTO EAU CLAIRE AND LADYSMITH. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE ACROSS WRN MN
AROUND 15 DEGS COLDER AND THAT PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY...TAKE WHAT YOU HAD YESTERDAY MINUS 15.
THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO OUR RUN OF 4 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
TEMP ANOMALIES GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING...YOU CAN SEE A DEVELOPING TROWAL
FEATURE SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW OVER SODAK. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A STRONG PV ANOMALY ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR WINNIPEG. SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE FOUND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
TROWAL...TO THE NW OF THE CENTER OF THE PV ANOMALY. THE RAP DOES NOT
SHOW THIS DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO WC MN UNTIL
15Z..THEN TRACKS IT NE ACROSS CENTRAL MN DURING THE DAY. KEPT POP
MAGNITUDE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED AT 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS
OF THE MN CWA...JUST DELAYED ITS MOVEMENT INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL
MN TODAY.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED FROM NW KANSAS BACK
THROUGH MONTANA WILL DRIFT E AND SETTLE IN FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
BACK INTO NODAK BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...IT WILL BRING WITH IT A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN DEWPS...WHICH
COULD FALL INTO THE 20S SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
30S OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS DRY AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SLACKENING OF THE WINDS TO PROMOTE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SHOULD FIND
THEMSELVES FALL INTO THE 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW SPOTS
FROM SW MN UP THROUGH CENTRAL MN HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP
THEIR FIRST 32 OR COLDER LOW THIS SEASON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
SUNDAY WILL BE A NEAR PERFECT FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD... LOTS OF SUNSHINE... LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL FADE ON MONDAY AS
RAIN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE NAM/GFS REMAIN THE
FASTEST ON BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO MN BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM DON/T HAVE THE LOW
REACHING INTO MN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST
FOUR NIGHTS IS BEST WITH THE ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION RECEIVED THE
MOST WEIGHTING WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AND RAIN
AMOUNTS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HENCE...LIGHT RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE NEARING
I-35 BY EVENING. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN WI
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN
WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...STRONG FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA MAY REACH OR EXCEED AN INCH. THERE IS ALSO A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WHERE THE NOSE OF A NEGATIVE LI AXIS EXISTS.
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY MORNING... BUT A DRY
SLOT WILL LIKELY POKE INTO SOUTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
KNOCK THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN DOWN. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS/LIGHT
RAIN WILL LINGER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY FROM MN TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WILL STILL BE COOL ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDINESS AS TROUGHING ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. THE ECMWF BECOMES A BIT EXTREME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...
STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO BAJA BY THE WEEKEND. WITH TIME...
THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SOLUTION PRODUCES SNOW
ACROSS IA AND SOUTHERN WI NEXT SUNDAY. THE GEFS WOULD SPLIT THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH ONE PORTION OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A CUT-
OFF DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON A SIDE NOTE...WE LEARNED FROM
LAST WINTER THAT THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS ON THE ECMWF TRENDED
NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE 7 TO 10 DAY PERIOD COULD BE INTERESTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
MVFR CONDS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLD IFR
CONDITIONS AS COLD CORE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL AFFECT MAINLY KAXN/KSTC. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME
VFR CIGS 3-4K FEET. THEN CLEARING INTO THE EVENING. WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED 15-25 WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS AT TIMES.
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AS TROUGH EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WEST SHOULD SEE LIGHT WEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO SUNDAY.
KMSP...CIGS AROUND 3-4K FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD CLEAR
INTO THE EVENING. SOME SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH TO
THE WEST...BUT FEEL THEY WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTY. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BE LIGHT WEST INTO SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR DURING DAY. MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS E 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA. WINDS NE 5 KTS.
WED...MVFR. CHANCE SHRA. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
520 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
SFC LOW AT 3 AM WAS NEAR WINNIPEG WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST MOVING
INTO EAU CLAIRE AND LADYSMITH. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE ACROSS WRN MN
AROUND 15 DEGS COLDER AND THAT PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY...TAKE WHAT YOU HAD YESTERDAY MINUS 15.
THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO OUR RUN OF 4 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
TEMP ANOMALIES GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING...YOU CAN SEE A DEVELOPING TROWAL
FEATURE SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW OVER SODAK. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A STRONG PV ANOMALY ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR WINNIPEG. SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE FOUND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
TROWAL...TO THE NW OF THE CENTER OF THE PV ANOMALY. THE RAP DOES NOT
SHOW THIS DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO WC MN UNTIL
15Z..THEN TRACKS IT NE ACROSS CENTRAL MN DURING THE DAY. KEPT POP
MAGNITUDE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED AT 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS
OF THE MN CWA...JUST DELAYED ITS MOVEMENT INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL
MN TODAY.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED FROM NW KANSAS BACK
THROUGH MONTANA WILL DRIFT E AND SETTLE IN FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
BACK INTO NODAK BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...IT WILL BRING WITH IT A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN DEWPS...WHICH
COULD FALL INTO THE 20S SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
30S OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS DRY AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SLACKENING OF THE WINDS TO PROMOTE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SHOULD FIND
THEMSELVES FALL INTO THE 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW SPOTS
FROM SW MN UP THROUGH CENTRAL MN HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP
THEIR FIRST 32 OR COLDER LOW THIS SEASON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
SUNDAY WILL BE A NEAR PERFECT FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD... LOTS OF SUNSHINE... LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL FADE ON MONDAY AS
RAIN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE NAM/GFS REMAIN THE
FASTEST ON BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO MN BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM DON/T HAVE THE LOW
REACHING INTO MN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST
FOUR NIGHTS IS BEST WITH THE ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION RECEIVED THE
MOST WEIGHTING WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AND RAIN
AMOUNTS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HENCE...LIGHT RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE NEARING
I-35 BY EVENING. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN WI
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN
WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...STRONG FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA MAY REACH OR EXCEED AN INCH. THERE IS ALSO A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WHERE THE NOSE OF A NEGATIVE LI AXIS EXISTS.
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY MORNING... BUT A DRY
SLOT WILL LIKELY POKE INTO SOUTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
KNOCK THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN DOWN. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS/LIGHT
RAIN WILL LINGER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY FROM MN TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WILL STILL BE COOL ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDINESS AS TROUGHING ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. THE ECMWF BECOMES A BIT EXTREME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...
STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO BAJA BY THE WEEKEND. WITH TIME...
THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SOLUTION PRODUCES SNOW
ACROSS IA AND SOUTHERN WI NEXT SUNDAY. THE GEFS WOULD SPLIT THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH ONE PORTION OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A CUT-
OFF DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON A SIDE NOTE...WE LEARNED FROM
LAST WINTER THAT THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS ON THE ECMWF TRENDED
NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE 7 TO 10 DAY PERIOD COULD BE INTERESTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
WITH SFC LOW MOVING NEARLY DUE NORTH ACROSS SRN CANADA...POST
FRONTAL STRATUS ACROSS WRN MN HAS STAYED PUT MOST OF THE NIGHT.
STILL EXPECT IT TO HEAD EAST THIS MORNING...REACHING WRN WI BY THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. FOLLOWED THE RAP/NAM FOR BRINGING THESE CLOUDS BACK
ACROSS TERMINALS TODAY. ALSO FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE RAP WITH
MVFR CIGS STAYING CONFINED TO CENTRAL MN...WITH CIGS WORKING INTO
MSP/RNH/EAU BEING OF THE VFR VARIETY. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN BY
15Z...THOUGH OUT OF THE WSW TODAY. NOT EXPECTING GUSTS LIKE WERE
SEEN FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE GUSTS UP NEAR 30 KTS IN WRN MN
AND 25 KTS OVER IN WI THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES AND WITH IT A SLACKENING OF THE WINDS AND A CLEARING OF
THE SKIES.
KMSP...MAY SEE A BRIEF MVFR CIG WHEN STRATUS MOVES BACK IN AROUND
17Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN
ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF THE TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR DURING DAY. MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS E 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA. WINDS NE 5 KTS.
WED...MVFR. CHANCE SHRA. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
415 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
SFC LOW AT 3 AM WAS NEAR WINNIPEG WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST MOVING
INTO EAU CLAIRE AND LADYSMITH. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE ACROSS WRN MN
AROUND 15 DEGS COLDER AND THAT PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY...TAKE WHAT YOU HAD YESTERDAY MINUS 15.
THIS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO OUR RUN OF 4 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
TEMP ANOMALIES GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING...YOU CAN SEE A DEVELOPING TROWAL
FEATURE SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW OVER SODAK. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A STRONG PV ANOMALY ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR WINNIPEG. SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE FOUND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
TROWAL...TO THE NW OF THE CENTER OF THE PV ANOMALY. THE RAP DOES NOT
SHOW THIS DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO WC MN UNTIL
15Z..THEN TRACKS IT NE ACROSS CENTRAL MN DURING THE DAY. KEPT POP
MAGNITUDE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED AT 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS
OF THE MN CWA...JUST DELAYED ITS MOVEMENT INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL
MN TODAY.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED FROM NW KANSAS BACK
THROUGH MONTANA WILL DRIFT E AND SETTLE IN FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
BACK INTO NODAK BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...IT WILL BRING WITH IT A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN DEWPS...WHICH
COULD FALL INTO THE 20S SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
30S OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS DRY AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SLACKENING OF THE WINDS TO PROMOTE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SHOULD FIND
THEMSELVES FALL INTO THE 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW SPOTS
FROM SW MN UP THROUGH CENTRAL MN HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP
THEIR FIRST 32 OR COLDER LOW THIS SEASON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
SUNDAY WILL BE A NEAR PERFECT FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD... LOTS OF SUNSHINE... LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL FADE ON MONDAY AS
RAIN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE NAM/GFS REMAIN THE
FASTEST ON BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO MN BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM DON/T HAVE THE LOW
REACHING INTO MN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST
FOUR NIGHTS IS BEST WITH THE ECWMF. THIS SOLUTION RECEIVED THE
MOST WEIGHTING WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AND RAIN
AMOUNTS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HENCE...LIGHT RAIN WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO WESTERN MN MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE NEARING
I-35 BY EVENING. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN WI
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN
WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...STRONG FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN CWA MAY REACH OR EXCEED AN INCH. THERE IS ALSO A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WHERE THE NOSE OF A NEGATIVE LI AXIS EXISTS.
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY MORNING... BUT A DRY
SLOT WILL LIKELY POKE INTO SOUTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
KNOCK THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN DOWN. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS/LIGHT
RAIN WILL LINGER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY FROM MN TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WILL STILL BE COOL ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDINESS AS TROUGHING ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. THE ECMWF BECOMES A BIT EXTREME WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...
STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO BAJA BY THE WEEKEND. WITH TIME...
THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SOLUTION PRODUCES SNOW
ACROSS IA AND SOUTHERN WI NEXT SUNDAY. THE GEFS WOULD SPLIT THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH ONE PORTION OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A CUT-
OFF DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON A SIDE NOTE...WE LEARNED FROM
LAST WINTER THAT THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS ON THE ECMWF TRENDED
NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE 7 TO 10 DAY PERIOD COULD BE INTERESTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
COLD FRONT JUST NOW MOVING INTO WI. SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS REALLY FALLEN APART...SO PARED BACK PRECIP MENTION
AT EAU TO A VCSH. MVFR/VFR STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO WRN MN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...BUT LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS IS MOVING NNE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAY CLIP MSP AT BEST. NAM AND RAP SHOW THESE
CLOUDS MORE OR LESS REMAINING STATIONARY UNTIL AFTER 12Z AS NEXT
SHORT WAVE COMES OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN MVFR CIGS RESULTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...BUT IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES. AT THE VERY LEAST CU RULE OFF THE
NAM/RAP WOULD SAY MIXING AND CAA WILL COMBINE BRING BKN CIGS ABOUT
AS FAR SOUTH AS MKT THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING INTO WRN MN AFTER 14Z AND WILL MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
MN...SO HAVE VCSH MENTIONS AT AXN/STC. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
ACROSS WRN MN THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL RELAX SOME ACROSS ERN
MN/WRN WI. GUSTY WSW WINDS RETURN FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS WAS SEEN SATURDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN WHICH WILL FINALLY START TO RELAX THE WINDS AND
CLEAR OUT THE SKIES.
KMSP...THE FIELD MAY GET CLIPPED BY A BATCH OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 8
AND 10Z...BUT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT MVFR CIGS WEST OF MSP WILL
HEAD MORE FOR THE NORTH METRO. MAIN CLOUD MASS WILL MOVE IN LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW KEPT THIS VFR...THOUGH SOME CIGS DOWN TO
AROUND 025 MAY BE POSSIBLE. ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY TODAY WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR DURING DAY. MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS E 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA. WINDS NNE 7-12 KTS.
WED...CHANCE MVFR/SHRA IN MORNING. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DULUTH MN
319 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM IS LIFTING NWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AT 08Z. SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
FA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. AS THESE FRONTS PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA...SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE
OVERHEAD AND GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. RAIN FALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE EXCEPT OVER THE BORDERLAND WHERE
UP TO .20 INCHES MAY FALL. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NW WI WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
ELSEWHERE.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROF WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FA
TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA UNDERNEATH BEST FORCING FROM SAID TROF. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES EJECTS EWD INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
TO THE NORTHLAND...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE
MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND NAM. THE DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE GFS
IS EVEN FASTER THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. SO...WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EVEN AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND ERN CANADA LATE WED AND THURSDAY...A SECONDARY RE-ENFORCING
UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF
THE DEPARTING LOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WEEK APPEARS
TO BE MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE STEADY...IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. WHILE OVER NIGHT LOWS WILL OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE
WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE
NRN COUNTIES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
MVFR CEILINGS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW. THE RAP 900-925MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WERE DOING
A DECENT JOB WITH THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND WAS USED TO IN THE
TAFS. THE MVFR CEILINGS MAY NOT REACH KHYR OR ONLY BE INTERMITTENT
THERE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF
CU/STRATOCU BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS AND SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 39 55 39 / 20 10 0 0
INL 54 34 52 33 / 50 50 0 0
BRD 53 36 57 39 / 20 0 0 10
HYR 60 36 58 30 / 10 0 0 0
ASX 60 38 57 33 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1243 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013
LEADING LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. INDIVIDUAL CELLS
WITH IN THE LINE WERE MOVING NORTHEAST CLOSE TO 60 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STILL HAD STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH
HELD SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN CHECK. THE UPPER CIRCULATION LIFTING
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF THE
LINE AND VARIOUS HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THIS EVENING.
STILL MAY CLIP THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CWA INTO THIS EARLY
EVENING. STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE FEATURE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE WIND
ADVISORY GO UNTIL EXPIRATION.
COLDER AIR TO WRAP IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO WRAP INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREA
AS WELL AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PATCHY FROST EXPECTED /MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MN AND WI/. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MONDAY THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
CLOSE OFF OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 15.12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUED TO FEATURE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE
BEEN PRESENT IN PRIOR RUNS. NAMELY...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LOW. THE RESULT IS ABOUT A 12 HOUR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ONSET/DEPARTURE.
DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIP
WILL ENTER WEST CENTRAL MN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 80-90
POPS ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND 60-70 POPS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI. BOTH MODELS FEATURE RUN TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO OVER 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
A LARGE TROUGH IS CARVED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA AND THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED
REDUCED HEIGHTS...IN COMBINATION WITH ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION...WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RUN AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
COLD FRONT JUST NOW MOVING INTO WI. SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS REALLY FALLEN APART...SO PARED BACK PRECIP MENTION
AT EAU TO A VCSH. MVFR/VFR STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO WRN MN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...BUT LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS IS MOVING NNE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAY CLIP MSP AT BEST. NAM AND RAP SHOW THESE
CLOUDS MORE OR LESS REMAINING STATIONARY UNTIL AFTER 12Z AS NEXT
SHORT WAVE COMES OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN MVFR CIGS RESULTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...BUT IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES. AT THE VERY LEAST CU RULE OFF THE
NAM/RAP WOULD SAY MIXING AND CAA WILL COMBINE BRING BKN CIGS ABOUT
AS FAR SOUTH AS MKT THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING INTO WRN MN AFTER 14Z AND WILL MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
MN...SO HAVE VCSH MENTIONS AT AXN/STC. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
ACROSS WRN MN THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL RELAX SOME ACROSS ERN
MN/WRN WI. GUSTY WSW WINDS RETURN FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS WAS SEEN SATURDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN WHICH WILL FINALLY START TO RELAX THE WINDS AND
CLEAR OUT THE SKIES.
KMSP...THE FIELD MAY GET CLIPPED BY A BATCH OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 8
AND 10Z...BUT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT MVFR CIGS WEST OF MSP WILL
HEAD MORE FOR THE NORTH METRO. MAIN CLOUD MASS WILL MOVE IN LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW KEPT THIS VFR...THOUGH SOME CIGS DOWN TO
AROUND 025 MAY BE POSSIBLE. ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY TODAY WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR DURING DAY. MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS E 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR WITH SHRA. WINDS NNE 7-12 KTS.
WED...CHANCE MVFR/SHRA IN MORNING. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013
AT 300PM/2000Z...THERE WAS A STRONG AND STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING NNE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS STORM SYSTEM
HAD MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ONE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS STRETCHED FROM NE NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH NW AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE BAND WAS STEADILY MOVING NORTH AND SLOWLY
EAST. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVERED MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN STILL HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE NORTHLAND
HAD SE WINDS OF ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN SOME
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR 60S OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND UPPER 70S NEAR
BAYFIELD PENINSULA. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE TONIGHT.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT.
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA
WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE.
ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE
A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FIRST BAND. I FORECAST HIGH CHANCES OF PCPN
FOR THE SW FORECAST AREA SINCE IT WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED...AND WE
MAY NEED TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH...DUE TO THE
STRONG FLOW ALOFT IN THE MIXING LAYER AND JUST ABOVE THE MIXING
LAYER. AND DESPITE THE DECOUPLING THAT WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING...THE SHOWERS COULD STILL MIX DOWN THESE STRONG GUSTS FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA. THIS
IS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH
STORMS...BUT THE LIMITING FACTOR IS CAPE...ESPECIALLY SURFACE
BASED CAPE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SATURDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL HAVE A CLOUDY AND WINDY DAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND AND SURROUNDING REGION. THE SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG MIXING WILL
HELP GENERATE THICK CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. I LOWERED THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS NW WISCONSIN. WE MAY NEED TO LOWER
THE TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE HEAVY
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR LATER IN THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ALREADY START TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER SUNDAY...AS HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SW PART OF THE REGION. THE
MODELS INDICATE SOME PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT INTO THE CWA LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. BEYOND
THAT...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A WET EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT
COOLER BY THE RAIN AND CLOUDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE TO SOME
EXTENT DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL...BUT BOTH
MODELS MAINTAIN SOME SORT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
KINL TO K04W AT 0430Z. THIS BAND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST. THE NMM-WRF
WAS DOING A GOOD JOB DEPICTING THIS BAND OF RAIN...AND FORECASTS IT
TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AROUND 08Z.
MVFR CEILINGS WERE MOVING TOWARD KBRD BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SHOULD
PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THE RAP 900-925MB CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS WERE DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THESE LOWER CEILINGS
AND WAS USED TO IN THE TAFS. THE MVFR CEILINGS MAY NOT REACH KHYR OR
ONLY BE INTERMITTENT THERE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF
CU/STRATOCU BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS AND SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 54 38 54 / 60 50 10 0
INL 52 53 35 52 / 50 60 30 10
BRD 48 54 36 57 / 60 50 10 0
HYR 53 61 36 58 / 40 10 10 0
ASX 55 61 39 57 / 40 10 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ140-141.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1114 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 929 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2013
Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently extending from
northwest Missouri through southeast Kansas is in response to
upstream upper air pertubation over eastern Colorado southwest
Kansas moving east-northweastward into northern and central
Kansas. Cold frontal boundary extending from western Iowa through
northeast Kansas then south-central Kansas continues too move east
and southeastward. We delayed the arrival of showers and
thunderstorms over most areas in the LSX CWA. Believe shower and
thunderstorm activitly will be moving into Qunicy - Columbia area
after 0700 UTC and into St. Louis area after 10 or 11 UTC. Would
not be surprise if a new band of convection forms after midhight ahead
of the current bands observed on EAX and SGF radars. RAP and local
LSX WRF models supporting this tread. Instability not too
impressive at this time over area. Well defined subsidence
inversion at 780 mb noted at SGF sounding this evening. This might
challenge convection a little. However colder air aloft over
western Kansas may increase the instability early Saturday
morning. Adjusted temps a little over CWA.
Przybylinski
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2013
Although upstream front/dry line remain tranquil at 20z, believe
that modest instability and convergence along the front should
initiate scattered convection over the next few hours. The coverage
of this activity should then increase later tonight as upstream
shortwave currently near the 4 corners works into the region. It
may take a while for the upstream convection to work into the CWA,
but amount of moisture, instability, and lift all suggest scattered
convection will threaten much of the CWA late tonight and during the
predawn hours. For now have placed the highest PoPs at 50% west of
a KFAM-KTAZ line, with PoPs tapering off southeast of this line to
low chance in KSLO area by daybreak. For now have stayed with
overnight lows in the 50s with the thinking that there should be a
bit of cooling due to precip; however if convection does remain
isolated these lows will likely be too cool by a cat or so.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2013
Overall forecast trends appear on track for tomorrow with scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected to persist from tonight into
Saturday. A stacked low pressure system over the northern Plains
will lift into Canada by tomorrow morning while at least one
secondary vort max rotates around its back side, providing another
source of lift for MO/IL. The occluding system will also continue to
draw a narrow ribbon of moisture through the area ahead of the cold
front (PW values will be near +2 SD). In addition, models are
forecasting a coupled jet structure at H3 which places the LSX CWA
beneath the favored region for enhanced lift, especially between
12-18z. The combination of these factors should be sufficient for
isolated to scattered precipitation, but this does not look like a
widespread rainfall event because of the spatially limited moisture
and overall weak forcing.
Precipitation should end fairly quickly after the cold front moves
through the region due to increasing subsidence with a 1025 hPa high
pressure center that will be sliding into the northern Plains and
western Great Lakes on Saturday night and Sunday. This area of high
pressure will push the cold front to near the MO/AR border before
cyclogenesis over the central Plains occurs and lifts the stalled
boundary back northward as a warm front on Tuesday. There are still
some model differences regarding the upper level disturbance which
will be responsible for the surface low, but recent runs of the
ECMWF/GFS/GEM all agree at that least a portion of that energy will
lift through the central CONUS on Monday night and Tuesday. The
moisture and dynamics are expected to be much better with the
Mon/Tue system. Depending on how the upper level disturbance splits
apart, the other half could move across the area during the middle
or end of the week and provide additional precipitation chances.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2013
Cold front extending from a sfc low over nern ND south through
nwrn MO and sern KS will move sewd through UIN and COU late tgt,
and through the St Louis metro area Saturday mrng. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are along and just ahead of this front
this evng. A band of VFR, low-mid level clouds well ahead of the
front in COU and UIN this evng will advect into the St Louis metro
area late tgt. Showers and a few storms should move through UIN
and COU late tgt, and through the St Louis metro area around 12z
Saturday. The s-sely sfc wind will veer around to a nwly direction
after fropa in UIN and COU by early Saturday mrng and in the St
Louis metro area by late mrng. The low level clouds will clear out
in the mrng in UIN and COU, and in the aftn in the St Louis metro
area as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area behind the
cold front.
Specifics for KSTL: Clouds at 5000-7000 ft will advect into STL
just after 06z Saturday with scattered showers moving into the STL
area by 12z Saturday. The showers will move out by late mrng with
the clouds clearing out in the aftn. Sely sfc wind will veer
around to a swly direction Saturday mrng, and a nwly direction
Saturday aftn.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
928 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THIS LINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER JUST BEFORE NOON...SO HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THIS CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY 12-3 PM. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED THE SHOWER INTENSITY TO MODERATE BASED ON REFELCTIVITY
TRENDS AND CURRENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...BUT WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
HEATING THEY COULD INTENSIFY TO PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013/
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013/
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TODAY... BUT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
INCREASED CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE HAD AIDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
EASTERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD
INTO EASTER AR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR
JONESBORO DEPICTED SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AT 19Z...
ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST SHEAR. A FEW STORMS MAY CROSS THE RIVER INTO
WEST TN... BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FURTHER INTO THE
MIDLEVEL RIDGE. BY THIS EVENING... THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MOVED
WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE
STABILIZED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE MIDSOUTH AND
STALL TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT BAY
FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
EJECT FROM A DEEP UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE OVER THE OZARKS MONDAY EVENING AS IT DEAMPLIFIES.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL WAVE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...RETURNING MODIFIED GULF
AIR THE MIDSOUTH. GFS PROGS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.9
INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LIFT THE CENTER OF THE DEEP AND BROAD LONGWAVE
TROF FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY...
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF CONUS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BEFORE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE PREFRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR GOOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY... THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO PART WAYS. THE GFS
KEEPS A RIDGE WEST/TROF EAST PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE
MIDSOUTH IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF
DROPS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY...THEN EJECTS AN OPEN BUT HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROF INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY...A VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTION
THAN THAT OF THE GFS.
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WERE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF...
GIVEN THE ECMWF/S GREATER RECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WITH THE
LACK OF GFS CONCURRENCE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING AGAIN THIS MORNING AT KMKL REDUCING VSBYS
TO MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES. FOG WILL LIFT AFTER 13Z. SCT TSRAS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF VCTS FOR NOW. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS UNLESS A TAF SITE IS AFFECTED BY A TSRA. AFTER
01Z...EXPECT TSRAS TO DIE OUT. NOT SURE ABOUT CLOUD COVER DURING
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAP INDICATES THERE COULD BE
SOME LOWER CIGS OCCUR DURING AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS AND
CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE THERE IS SOME LOWER CIGS IN OKLAHOMA ALONG
FRONT. OTHER MODELS SCATTER CLOUDS OUT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL CHANGE FROM SCT040 SCT120 TO BKN040.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG AT KMKL AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT S
WINDS WILL BECOME NE THIS EVENING.
KRM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 60 80 59 / 60 10 10 10
MKL 79 57 80 54 / 30 20 0 0
JBR 77 57 77 54 / 70 10 10 10
TUP 83 60 80 59 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
617 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013/
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TODAY... BUT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED A BIT BY
INCREASED CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE HAD AIDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
EASTERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD
INTO EASTER AR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR
JONESBORO DEPICTED SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AT 19Z...
ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST SHEAR. A FEW STORMS MAY CROSS THE RIVER INTO
WEST TN... BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FURTHER INTO THE
MIDLEVEL RIDGE. BY THIS EVENING... THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MOVED
WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE
STABILIZED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE MIDSOUTH AND
STALL TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT BAY
FOR SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
EJECT FROM A DEEP UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE OVER THE OZARKS MONDAY EVENING AS IT DEAMPLIFIES.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL WAVE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...RETURNING MODIFIED GULF
AIR THE MIDSOUTH. GFS PROGS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.9
INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LIFT THE CENTER OF THE DEEP AND BROAD LONGWAVE
TROF FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY...
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF CONUS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BEFORE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE PREFRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR GOOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY... THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO PART WAYS. THE GFS
KEEPS A RIDGE WEST/TROF EAST PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE
MIDSOUTH IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF
DROPS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY...THEN EJECTS AN OPEN BUT HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROF INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY...A VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTION
THAN THAT OF THE GFS.
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS WERE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF...
GIVEN THE ECMWF/S GREATER RECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WITH THE
LACK OF GFS CONCURRENCE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET
PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING AGAIN THIS MORNING AT KMKL REDUCING VSBYS
TO MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES. FOG WILL LIFT AFTER 13Z. SCT TSRAS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF VCTS FOR NOW. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS UNLESS A TAF SITE IS AFFECTED BY A TSRA. AFTER
01Z...EXPECT TSRAS TO DIE OUT. NOT SURE ABOUT CLOUD COVER DURING
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAP INDICATES THERE COULD BE
SOME LOWER CIGS OCCUR DURING AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS AND
CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE THERE IS SOME LOWER CIGS IN OKLAHOMA ALONG
FRONT. OTHER MODELS SCATTER CLOUDS OUT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL CHANGE FROM SCT040 SCT120 TO BKN040.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG AT KMKL AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT S
WINDS WILL BECOME NE THIS EVENING.
KRM
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 60 80 59 / 30 10 10 10
MKL 79 57 80 54 / 20 20 0 0
JBR 77 57 77 54 / 40 10 10 10
TUP 83 60 80 59 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
929 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...MONITORING CONVECTION THAT HAS SO FAR REMAINED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A RIPPLE IN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW OF TS OCTAVE
WILL LEAD TO STRONGER DIFFLUENCE PUSHING SOUTHEAST AND HOLDING
THROUGH SUNRISE. LOW LAYER ANALYSIS AND THE NAM12/RAP SUGGEST
INCREASING CONVERGENCE OVER MAINLY JIM HOGG/ZAPATA COUNTY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT NONZERO INSTABILITY
AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH SATELLITE AND RAP PWAT ESTIMATES AROUND 2.2
INCHES WHICH IS REASONABLY IN LINE WITH 00Z REGIONAL BALLOON
RELEASES. WITH AT LEAST SOME BAROCLINICITY IN THE 850/700MB LAYER
MORE FOCUSED REGIONAL TROUGHING COULD SET UP ALONG OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
CONSIDERING THE ABOVE HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN ZAPATA/BROOKS/STARR/JIM HOGG COUNTIES.
LOCAL FLOODING RISK STILL APPEARS LIMITED BY A STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. -JGG/GB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7 TO 10
KNOTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS JIM HOGG AND ZAPATA COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DRIER
AIR AROUND 3000 FT IS EXPECTED TO HELP KEEP CIGS VFR BUT PATCHY
HIGH MVFR IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE AND HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECKS SHOULD
RISE ABOVE 3000 FT AND BECOME SCATTERED TO FEW BY MID MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. /68-JGG/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPIN
JUST OT THE SOUTH...WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND IT. WEAK
IMPULSE EXPECTED TODAY WENT FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST...SO SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN ISOLATED AND HAVE FOR THE MOST PART MOVED OFF TO THE
NORTH. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GET SHUNTED FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHILE MUCH DRIER AIR NOTED TO THE SOUTH ON WV
IMAGERY WILL REPLACE IT STARTING TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO
THE POP CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER HUMID DAY IN STORE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE 500 MB RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND SOUTHERN TX WILL BE STEADILY ERODED AWAY
LATER THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL DIG ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING WITH A
SECOND FRONT PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX THIS SATURDAY.
AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING ERODES AWAY THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
FEED (WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED FROM THE LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM
T.S. OCTAVE IN THE EASTERN PAC) WILL SHIFT STEADILY SOUTHWARDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT INCREASING THE CONV POTENTIAL DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS GENERALLY AGREE IN THE HANDLING OF THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND THE OVERALL MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THURS.
AT THIS POINT THE GFS DEVIATES FROM THE ECMWF AND TRIES TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE COASTAL LOW NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND LIFTS THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DOES NOT REFLECT
THIS FEATURE AS WELL AND TENDS TO WANT TO DRY OUT THE AREA MUCH
FASTER AS SURFACE RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THURS AND WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH AROUND THURS AND IS THEN ONLY AVERAGE AFTER THURS DUE TO
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL GO FAIRLY CLOSE TO GFS MEX MOS TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF POPS
AFTER THURSDAY.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MINIMAL CHANGE IN MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF...WHILE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH TEXAS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE SEAS STAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
TUES AND WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. A MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE
FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS. HOWEVER ONLY
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS THE STRONG PGF MAY BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED. A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO FRI
AS SURFACE RIDGING SAGS OVER THE GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATES SWELLS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
901 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.UPDATE...
TIMING OF FROST ADVISORY STILL ON TRACK. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES AS A FEW LOW-LYING AREAS HAVE COOLED A BIT FASTER
AFTER DECOUPLING THAN SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. MESONET SITES IN
WESTERN MILWAUKEE AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES TRENDING WARMER THAN
LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND SO NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO ADD THOSE
NARROW COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY WITH RELATIVELY WARM ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THOSE COUNTIES
COULD STILL SEE SOME FROST..BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ADD TO ADVISORY.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH FROST AT INLAND TAF
SITES. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING PREVIOUS NAM RUNS
WITH MVFR LAKE CLOUDS AROUND 2500 FT MOVING IN WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z MONDAY AT KMKE AND KENW...WITH
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2800 AND 3000 FT AT KUES BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. WILL
AWAIT ALL OF 00Z DATA..BUT 00Z NAM LOW-LEVEL RH FORECASTS INDICATE
LOWER CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN MORE TOWARD 12Z. THEY ALSO INDICATE THE
CLOUDS WOULD PUSH WEST OUT OF KMKE AND KENW BY 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST NAM SURFACE WIND FORECAST SHOWS INCREASING EAST WINDS
VEERING SOUTHEAST AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
INCREASING FETCH BUILDING WAVES TOWARD SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AS WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH. STILL EARLY FOR A HEADLINE BUT WILL KEEP
POSSIBLE ADVISORY MENTION IN THE NEARSHORE FORECAST AND LET NEXT
SHIFT HAVE A GOOD LOOK AT ALL OF THE 00Z DATA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/
VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FROST POTENTIAL. MAINLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. GIVEN THIS SETUP...WENT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW MOST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...AND WENT WITH LOWER TO MID
30S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THE COUNTIES AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FROM 08Z TO 13Z MONDAY. ALSO
INCLUDED SHEBOYGAN...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES FOR THEIR WESTERN
AREAS...WHICH WILL SEE AREAS OF FROST WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID
30S.
OTHER ISSUE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOWING AN AREA
OF ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 1000/850MB LAYER
SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NAM MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. DELTA T VALUES ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ON NAM...WITH GFS BORDERLINE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH CHICAGO
OFFICE ADDED CLOUDS MOVING WEST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA MAINLY ON MONDAY. MAY SEE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOP INLAND AS
WELL IN ADDITION TO THESE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. PER 925MB
TEMPERATURES...KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S EAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
WEST.
SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON STRONG PUSH OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION COINCIDENT WITH SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPSTREAM APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE PUSH OF WARM
PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS TIME RESULTS IN MODERATE LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OF UP TO 30 UNITS PASSING SWIFTLY ACROSS SRN
WI. HENCE WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE REGION. WL ALSO
ADD SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER AS ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX APPROACHES ZERO
AND TOTAL TOTALS APPROACH 50.
DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND THE OCCLUDING UPPER LOW LOCATED TO THE
WEST WILL END MOST OF THE SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WL CONTINUE SMALLER SHOWER THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE TROF SWINGS THROUGH SRN WI.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING TROFING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES AT START OF
PERIOD TO WEAKEN AND SPEED OFF TO THE EAST AS IT BECOMES OPEN WAVE.
HENCE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP DIMINISHES RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHERN WI
WED AND WED EVE.
OTHERWISE...ALL EXTENDED GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON LONG
WAVE TROFING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON POSITION OF AMPLIFYING
TROF AND RESULTING COLDER AIR PUSH INTO WI.
ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK DUE TO IT MAINTAINING SCENARIO WITH LONG WAVE TROF AXIS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. MEANWHILE GFS HAS TROF AXIS BUILDING INTO WRN
GTLAKES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH COLDER AIR SURGING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. LATEST GEM HAS JOINED THE FASTER GFS CAMP AS WELL. WPC
BLENDED FIELDS USING AN ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE ECMWF AND GEM. GFS
5DAY 500H MEANS CONTINUES TO SHOW NEGATIVE ANOMALY OF 100 METERS
SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z/18 AND EXPANDING TO 150 METERS
BY 00Z/20.
HENCE CONFIDENCE HIGH ON COLDER TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE
REGION WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF FROST/FREEZE. WL NEED TO KEEP
SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIP FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO WEAK PASSING
SHORT WAVES/FRONTS IN FAST W TO NW FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER
TO TAF SITES. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH BY
EVENING...THEN BECOME CALM/LIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE AND
EASTERLY ON MONDAY.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AFFECTING EASTERN TAF SITES
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN SITES AFTER 12Z MONDAY...AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
THESE MAY MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND AFFECT MADISON AS WELL BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
MENTIONED SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN TAFS AFTER 09Z IN THE EAST...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 12Z MONDAY. MADISON SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING WITH PASSING
LOW PRESSURE WILL CREATE INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND BECOME
BRISK...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN. 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHEST WAVES WOULD BE TOWARD THE
OPEN WATERS. THUS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-056>059-062>065-067>072.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
643 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND THERMAL
TROUGHING HAVE KEPT A STUBBORN STRATO-CU FIELD OVER THE NE THIRD
OF THE STATE...THOUGH ITS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING NE OVER THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUDS...TEMPS AND FROST HEADLINES.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHOULD SEE HIGH CIRRUS MOVE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...WHILE
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
LATE. SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE CLOUDS MOVING INLAND THAT COULD MESS
AROUND WITH FROST FORMATION OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE 5 KTS OR UNDER...AND LOCAL
DATA SUGGESTS LAND BREEZES WILL DEVELOP THAT WILL KEEP LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT...WILL LOWER TEMPS OVER EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF
FROST SO WITH COLLAB FROM OTHER OFFICES...WILL HOIST A FROST
ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR DOOR COUNTY.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA...EASTERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE MORNING...AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO
PUSH A MID-LAKE CLOUD BAND INLAND. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING. THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
MORE SUN EAST VERSUS WEST. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
PATTERN OVER CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO CONSIST OF STRONG UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROF/ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN CHANCES
CONTINUE...ALBEIT LOWER POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS COOLER AIR ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND A SECONDARY
WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF MOVE THRU. TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL THRU THU
AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PCPN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT MON AS WAA PATTERN SPREADS
EAST OVER THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY LAYER IN MID
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT MON. HAVE SLOWED PCPN A BIT EARLY
EVENING...THOUGH LEFT REST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST STAND...STAYING
DRY OVER THE EAST. WIDESPREAD PCPN EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE EVENING
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH STATE. DEEPER MOISTURE STRIPPED OUT
LATER TUE NIGHT/WED LEADING TO LOWER POPS OR LIGHT PCPN.
STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...THUS
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST. HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP ON
LAKE/BAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED GIVEN COLD AIR MASS MOVING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
THE TRICKY PART OF THIS FORECAST IS TO WHAT EXTENT
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FORM NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AT MTW AND SUE AND PERHAPS OCONTO AND GREEN
BAY AFTER 12Z. BEST GUESS IS THAT CLOUDS BASES WILL BE BETWEEN
3000 FT AND 4000FT. JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
FURTHER WEST.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ038-039-
048>050.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
AT 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT...WHICH BROUGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WAS JUST MOVING INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS FRONT BECAME MORE ACTIVE AS IT RAN INTO DEEPER MOISTURE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MINNESOTA AND IN WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST
INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WITH AN OPEN CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO
THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ALL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER FROST
WILL DEVELOP OR NOT. IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 1 KM WILL HAVE THE WINDS DROP
OFF INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. AS A RESULT...ONLY EXPECTING PATCHY FROST
IN THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW ONLY A COUPLE 100 FEET.
MEANWHILE THE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. WHILE
THE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...THERE IS MORE MOISTURE IN THE
LOWEST LAYERS. LIKE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FROST WILL BE PATCHY TO SCATTERED. WITH NO AREAS OF
WIDESPREAD FROST...THE CONSENSUS WAS NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY.
ON SUNDAY...A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HIGH PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL MIX TO AROUND 875 MB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL RANGING FROM 2 TO 5C...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES. THIS IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE NORMAL HIGH FOR MID-OCTOBER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP. THE COVERAGE LOOKS
TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TONIGHT. IF THIS CONTINUES...WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE 12.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OCCURRING...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING DEVELOPS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP MUCH OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN DRY. FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE AREA
WILL SEE MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.
AS A RESULT EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
PERIOD. HOWEVER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRY SLOT MAY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCUR...THERE WOULD
LIKELY BE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS AREA.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES
TO BE WHERE WILL THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL BE LOCATED AND HOW FAST
WILL IT MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. LIKE THEIR
PREDECESSORS...THE 12.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ITS
LOCATION AND TIMING. DUE TO THIS...KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RANGING FROM 16 TO 44 PERCENT. REGARDLESS WHETHER THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION...THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL TEMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 50S AND KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 DEGREES.
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW-NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS FROM THE LOW IS
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMING ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD. THE 12.15Z RAP AND 12.12Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE DIURNAL CUMULUS TO
FORM A VFR CEILING AT BOTH AIRPORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO COMPLETELY STILL
OFF...BUT KLSE BEING IN THE VALLEY COULD GO DOWN TO AN ALMOST CALM
WIND. HIGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO
CONTINUE THE CLEAR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND ABOUT TO ENTER EASTERN
WISCONSIN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE HEAVIEST
WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CANNOT RULE OUT
SHOWERS POPPING UP UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST BY PRESS ISSUANCE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A DRY SLOT IS PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN. BUT OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN...A LARGE AND SOLID STRATO-CU FIELD IS MOVING
EAST. SOME SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF THE CLOUD MASS UNDER THE COLDER
CLOUD TOPS. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES/CLOUDS/TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SEE THE DRY SLOT MOVE OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS A RESULT...WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A QUIET BUT BREEZY NIGHT. FARTHER WEST...SOLID MVFR STRATUS DECK
OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION/THERMAL
TROUGHING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER POINTS TOWARDS
THIS CLOUD MASS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME SHOWERS NOTED IN THE OBS...BUT
ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS SUGGEST DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT
OVER MN THAN WHAT WILL BE AROUND WHEN THE STRATUS DECK ARRIVES.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT STILL MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH. WILL PASS CONCERNS TO THE EVENING CREW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
SUNDAY...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO...THE LOW STRATUS DECK
WILL BE EXITING NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A SCT CU DECK FORMING BY LATE MORNING
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
MODELS CONTINUE WITH SAME THOUGHTS THIS PERIOD AS AMPLIFIED YET
COLDER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER AREA AS RIDGE LIES OFF WEST COAST AND
DEEPENING TROF OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF CONUS. S/W ENERGY DROPPING SE
OUT OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST STATES EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OFF EARLY IN PERIOD IS FEATURE THAT BRINGS CONCERNS TO THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. STILL SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING BETWEEN MODELS AND
INDIVIDUAL RUNS OF MODELS. ECMWF SLOWEST WITH PCPN NOW HOLDING OUT
TIL LATER TUE. WITH SYSTEM CUTTING OFF IT WOULD SUGGEST A SLOWER
PROGRESSION. NEITHER GFS OR ECMWF IS REALLY FAVORED BY ENSEMBLE
MEANS SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR TUE AND WED. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF FOR LATER PERIODS AS IT PULLS ENERGY/TROF
BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES PER ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN SEEN YESTERDAY OR CURRENT OPS GFS.
IN NEAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO LEAD TO COLD NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE 30S OVER THE REGION...DROPPING TO BELOW FREEZING IN
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. PLEASANT FALL DAY EXPECTED MONDAY. EASTERLY
GRADIENT TO PICK UP AS LOW DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
MODERATE TEMPS SOME. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME MONDAY GIVEN STILL RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. HAVE BACKED OFF A
BIT ON POPS MON NIGHT AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS EVEN ON MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS HOLDING ONTO DRY WEDGE BETWEEN 900 AND 700 MB INTO
TUE MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL END THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES WILL THE FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT UNTIL A BKN/OVC AREA OF MVFR CIGS ROTATES NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTIALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
MVFR CLOUD DECK TO EXIT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAVE
GOOD FLYING WEATHER FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
COLD FRONT TRUDGING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MORE OR
LESS RESTING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 06Z. EARLY CONVECTION
AROUND THE FRONT HAS DIMINISHED WITH 88-D RADAR RETURNS DEPICTING
ONLY VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS. THE FRONT AND PCPN SHOULD BE NEARLY EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH...AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA. NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...AND WILL HELP ROUND OUT THE
WEEKEND WITH SUNSHINE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT WINDS
WILL HELP TEMPS TUMBLE THOUGH...WITH MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COLD PRONE/DRAINAGE AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. IT WILL PROBABLY BE MORE
PATCHY IN NATURE...BUT IF TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COLDER...A FROST ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED. MONDAY MORNING
PRESENTS A SIMILAR SCENARIO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
OVERALL...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM WITH
BRINGING A RAINMAKER ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY
LINGERING THROUGH WED. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WITH THE
NAM A BIT FASTER THAN THE REST...A TAD MORE NORTH. ON THE
WHOLE...ALL PROMISE A PERIOD OF WETTING...WITH 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH...SPINNING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY SLIPPING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI TUE-WED. THE SYSTEM/S SFC
LOW WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN MN ON TUE...GRADUALLY EXIT EAST WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WED. FAIRLY STRONG QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH
THE 850-300 MB LAYER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...DEEPEST/STRONGEST
ACROSS MN/NORTHERN WI...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE SFC LOW. GOOD SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALSO ACCOMPANIES THE LOW...WITH A 50 KT
850 MB JET NOSING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. A LOT OF UPPER
AIR/THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WITH THE STORM...AND AMPLE MOISTURE TO
FUEL IT. RAIN REMAINS LIKELY AS A RESULT...WITH SOME AFOREMENTIONED
TIMING/PLACEMENT CONCERNS FOR THE HIGHER CHANCES. UNSURE ON IF THERE
WILL BE ANY ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTEND WITH. NO
INSTABILITY INDICATED VIA THE GFS...BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE PRETTY
STRONG...AND THAT ALONE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPARK A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
A TROUGH WILL HANG WEST OF THE EXITING SFC LOW FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...INTERACTING THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE AS RESULT...LIKELY FOCUSED AROUND
THE SFC BOUNDARY.
COLDER AIR FLOWS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR
THU/FRI. COUPLE THIS WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LINGERING MOISTURE AND ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF THE COLDER AIR/MOISTURE WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MN/WI...WITH SOME DIURNAL ELEMENTS TO THE
SHOWERS ALSO PROBABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE. HIGHS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 IN AREAS TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS FROM THE LOW IS
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMING ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD. THE 12.15Z RAP AND 12.12Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE DIURNAL CUMULUS TO
FORM A VFR CEILING AT BOTH AIRPORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO COMPLETELY STILL
OFF...BUT KLSE BEING IN THE VALLEY COULD GO DOWN TO AN ALMOST CALM
WIND. HIGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO
CONTINUE THE CLEAR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1131 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SHIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH MAINLY SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AT
THIS TIME. THESE WERE BEING DRIVEN BY COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA...ALONG WITH PASSING 500MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM...AND WEAK TO MODEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...UNTIL COLD FRONT/LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HRRR AND OTHER
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z...SO CONTINUED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THAT AREA.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY
SUNSET...WITH DOWNWARD MOTION FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
VALUES SLOWLY FALLING BEHIND IT WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT EASTERN TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 23Z.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WEST BEHIND IT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECK SCATTERING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SOON AFTER.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS...WITH WEAKENING WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS UNTIL 23Z. REPORT FROM LARGE BARGE CAPTAIN 2 MILES EAST OF
RACINE INDICATED HIGH WAVES WERE OCCURRING...SO EXPANDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 23Z.
BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE HELPING GENERATE 3 TO 6 FOOT
WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH DURING THIS
TIME...ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE BELOW 4 FEET BY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
WEST AND EXPECTING COVERAGE WILL PICK UP INTO THE MORNING. BEST
CHANCE SEEMS TO BE IN THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS BETTER LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM REAR JET ENTRANCE REGION MOVE THROUGH.
GIVEN SOME LIGHTNING UPSTREAM AND ELEVATED CAPE IN SOUNDINGS...LEFT
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD PUNCH OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...SO SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR PRETTY QUICKLY...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON EAST. ALREADY
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S MOST PLACES...EVEN MID TO UPPER 60S WEST...SO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNNY SKIES...DRY AIR AND 925MB TEMPS
AROUND 8C-9C WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE
LAKE. KEPT THEN MENTION OF PATCHY FROST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BRING ANOTHER
DEEP SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AS IT OCCLUDES AND WEAKENS. MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
PRECIP ARRIVAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
NOW...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER TOWARD CENTRAL WI RATHER
THAN SOUTHERN WI AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
RIGHT ACROSS THE MKX FORECAST AREA. THE DRY AIR WILL WRAP INTO
SOUTHERN WI TUE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD.
LIGHT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT POTENTIALLY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IF THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND SETTLE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND -2C. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD FREEZE
SATURDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THAT FAR OUT AND CLOUDS AND PRECIP COULD
INHIBIT THE FREEZE. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING AREAS WEST FIRST AND THEN WINDING DOWN IN THE
EAST BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AS
THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON STILL
SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THESE PERSISTENT WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES OF 3 TO 5
FEET ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EASE A BIT...ALLOWING THE WAVES
TO SUBSIDE SOME BY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME HIGHER WAVES LINGER A BIT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY
EXPIRATION TIME FROM 20Z TO 23Z.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. A FIRST ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS
MOVED INTO NW WI/SE MN/NE IA ALONG A WEAKENING LEAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A STRONG FRONTOGENETIC BAND
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED WITH
12.01Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RECENT MESO MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT IDEA
OF SHOWING THE LATEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE INSTABILITY/FGEN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL TO DEEP WIND SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP FORCING
ABOVE THE SURFACE/LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THIS CONVECTION LOW TOPPED
AND NOT SEVERE.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
REMAIN GUSTY ON INTO THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP THE
GUSTS THERE BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013
AT 3 PM...A 990 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PIERRE
SOUTH DAKOTA. DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...MSAS DATA SHOWS THAT THE
SURFACE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 4 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
MEANWHILE THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN 6 MB ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LAPS SHOWS THE TROPOSPHERIC FOLD EXTENDING DOWN
800 MB. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTHEAST...THERE IS A 1019 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
41 MPH /149 PM/ AT ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND 39 MPH
/133 PM/ AT THE DODGE CENTER AWOS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
FOR TONIGHT...THE LATEST RAP SHOW THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE ECHO COVERAGE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED. THIS SHOWS UP WELL IN THE RAP...NMM...AND ARW. AS A
RESULT...KEPT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 15 TO 24 PERCENT
RANGE. ML CAPES GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM AROUND 500 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 200 J/KG AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO
THIS...CONFINED THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EVENING. LIKE
YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE TOO GREAT FOR THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...THUS ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
HAPPEN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GET SHEARED APART QUICKLY. WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THE
WIND GUSTS TO QUICKLY WANE.
ON SATURDAY MORNING...THE 11.12Z MODELS APPEAR TO BE JUST A BIT
SLOWER AT MOVING THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HELD
ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
THROUGH 12.14Z.
ON SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH BEING LOCATED MORE ACROSS IOWA THAN
OUR FORECAST AREA. THINKING THAT THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT THE TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AS
MUCH AS THEY WILL BE UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE HIGH. AS A RESULT...
KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 35 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN THE MISSISSIPPI AND WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP.
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
LOW THAT A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN EXACTLY WILL
THIS OCCUR. THE 11.12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN
AND SLOWER THAN SOME OF THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. AS
RESULT NOT EXACTLY SURE WHICH TIME PERIOD /MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY...
OR BOTH/ TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES /80 TO
100 PERCENT/. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...JUST STAYED WITH THE ALL
BLEND SOLUTION. A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...IT LOOKED LIKE WE WOULD
POTENTIALLY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS LOW...BUT THE
MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT WE WILL ONLY SEE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING WINDS AROUND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS IT PASSES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD DEVELOPED AHEAD OF IT IN A THIN LINE HAS
STARTED TO FALL APART AS CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH IN IOWA HAS
TAKEN OVER SOME OF THE MOISTURE RETURN. RST HAS THE GREATER
CHANCES OF HAVING SOME OF THE CURRENT SHOWERS IN ITS
VICINITY...BUT AM GROWING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL NOT REACH
LSE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST AT BOTH SITES WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL IN THE 3-5KFT RANGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RIVERTON WY
933 PM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.UPDATE...
ADDED CODY FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. THE FORMER STARTS IMMEDIATELY AS RAIN IS ALREADY
CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE CODY FOOTHILLS. LOOKS LIKE CODY PROPER
WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY...BUT MEETEETSE WILL LIKELY SEE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS. THIS IN ADDITION TO WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WILL
MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY NEAR MEETEETSE. NORTHERN
JOHNSON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY AROUND SUNRISE...WITH
MARGINAL ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL
PROBLEMS IN RURAL AREAS MONDAY. WILL HAVE THE ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN JOHNSON RUN FROM 6 AM MONDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE BIGHORN MTS WARNING AND CASPER MTN
ADVISORY TIMING.
THE GREEN AND RATTLESNAKE...THERMOPOLIS AND LANDER ZONES COULD
POSSIBLE NEED ADVISORIES...BUT WILL LATE THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE DECIDING.
TWEAKED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND EVENING PACKAGE IS ALREADY
OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS LOOMING TO OUR WEST OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND
UTAH. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY IN OUR MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF JOHNSON COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
CURRENTLY WE ARE UNDER THE SOUTHWEST UPPER DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR LIGHTNING ALONG THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF WYOMING FROM WEAK
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THIS MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REPLACED THE
MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE WEST. A CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON PIH RADAR IN EASTERN
IDAHO JUST WEST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE RUC INDICATING
INCREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE GFS...NAM AND THE ECMWF ALL
AGREE ON KEEPING THE MAIN JET ENERGY WELL TO THE SOUTH TRACKING
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH THE VORT ENERGY
STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THE
SURFACE FLOW IS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ATTM...EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...BUT AT MAINLY LIGHT SPEEDS. ONCE THE MAIN LOW OVER
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA STARTS TO BOMB...THE NORTH WINDS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WILL STRENGTHEN AND THUS INCREASE UPSLOPE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL. THE GFS INDICATES 3 SEPARATE SUBTLE CIRCULATIONS AT
700MB THAT WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF WYOMING
TONIGHT...NOT THE MOST ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED Q VECTOR
FORCING AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH THE 700MB CIRCULATIONS
TRACKING ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT WITH THE MAIN ENERGY WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...THE THINKING WAS ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES EAST OF THE DIVIDE...NAMELY THE WIND
RIVER...ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS CASPER
MOUNTAIN. THE BIG HORNS AND CASPER MTN WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND
ROUGHLY SIX HOURS COMPARED TO THE WINDS AND THE ABSAROKAS. DECIDED
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS...THE HIGH END SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE TIME OF YEAR AND
ALL THE HUNTERS THAT WILL BE NEGOTIATING THE WINTER CONDITIONS.
THE BULK OF THE COLDEST 700MB AIR WILL COME CLOSEST TO JOHNSON
COUNTY WHERE ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR THAT ZONE FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR BYG AND SHR BUT NONE FOR THE OTHER MOS GUIDANCE
FORECAST POINTS WHERE 700MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BY THE NAM TO BE
-9.5C IN NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY 00Z TUESDAY. NOT ONLY IS
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JOHNSON
COUNTY BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THERE AS WELL ON MONDAY ONCE THE STORM BOMBS
TO THE EAST. THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JOHNSON COUNTY AND THE GREEN MTNS...FOR
THAT MATTER...NEED A HILITE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTER SOME LINGERING FLURRIES...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER WYOMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FIRST...RESULTING IN A
VERY CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REMAIN OVER
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A CLEARING
SKY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL SEE A SUNNY SKY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN SETS UP ALOFT OVER WYOMING. IT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER MODELS. FURTHER IN
THE EXTENDED WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVES
IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...
WEST CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER NORTHERLY
STREAM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THESE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...BUT PREFER THE DRIER GFS FOR NOW. IF ANY AREA
WERE TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN...IT WOULD BE THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BECOMING MORE PREVALENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS
WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. THE MOST IMPACTED TAF SITE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE KJAC TERMINAL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE KJAC TERMINAL.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS
MUCH OF THE TIME.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
MOUNTAIN SNOW/VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE
THIS EVENING. TAF SITES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT...AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD WITH AN INCREASING PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST
AREAS BY 12Z MONDAY EXCEPT KCPR WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL 15Z.
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE WILL BE OBSCURED FOR MUCH OF FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE OTHER MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MONDAY.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
ICING FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER...
IRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW
PRESSURE...AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME OF
THE WEST CENTRAL WYOMING MOUNTAIN RANGES. THIS SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
BY MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE COOL
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE WIND OR MIXING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
MONDAY NIGHT WYZ022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY WYZ002-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
MONDAY NIGHT WYZ008-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY
NIGHT WYZ010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT MONDAY WYZ003.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WM
SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...KPL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
435 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY...REMAINING GENERALLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WEAKENS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE THEN FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH DIURNAL WARMING THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND RURAL AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOCAL REGION. ALOFT...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WITH ITS BASE TO
OUR SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC LOW IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE LOSS
OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND INHERENTLY RESULTING IN THE FRONTOLYSIS.
THE ONLY EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE IN
THE 700 TO 850 MB COLUMN. THE LOWEST INVERSION AROUND 900MB GOING
INTO THIS MORNING IS SHOWN TO MIX OUT BUT THE ONE AROUND 700 TO
800MB WILL REMAIN ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO COLLECT HERE. THIS IS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP.
THE NAM AND RUC BUFKITS INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING WHILE THE GFS BUFKITS DOES NOT MOISTEN THE 700 TO 850MB LAYER
BUT IS SLOWER TO MIX OUT THE LOWEST INVERSION AROUND 900MB WITH ITS
CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THIS PARTICULARLY TOWARDS AND DURING TONIGHT. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUDS THERE WILL BE AND THE TIMING
OF THE HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE AND THIS IS ONE PARAMETER THAT
COULD FLUCTUATE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE RESULTING UNCERTAINTY
WAS THE REASON WHY AN EQUAL BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WAS CHOSEN
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THERE IS A LITTLE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT. HENCE...LOWS WERE PREFERRED WITH
A 3/4 MET WARMER GUIDANCE TO 1/4 COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
WILL KEEP FORECAST ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS
CONSIDERING THE LOWERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LACK OF WINDS TO
MIX DOWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE DAY AND NIGHTTIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A WARMER DAY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND THERE
IS MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS SOME PRETTY GOOD LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TOO WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 850MB VEERING TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 700MB. THE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET 2/3 AND COOLER 1/3 MAV
CONSIDERING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA BY WED EVE WITH A
TROUGH TRACKING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
FIRST TROUGH WHICH HAS A RIPPLE EFFECT ON LATER PERIODS. THE
GFS/GEFS MEAN IS FASTEST...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE EC AND
SREF...THEN THE NAM AND CMC AND LASTLY THE UKMET. HAVE STUCK WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN...NAM/SREF BLEND UNTIL THIS IS BETTER
RESOLVED. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CARVED
OUT THROUGH CENTRAL NOAM. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH YET ANOTHER NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES ENTRENCHED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL
WEAKEN AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS
ARE VARYING WITH THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS FEATURE AND HOW MUCH IT
WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA ON WED. FOR NOW HAVE SCHC POPS ACROSS
THE EAST END ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS SYSTEMS MOISTURE MAY BE
INFUSED INTO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT. HAVE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING...CONSISTENT WITH A NAM/SREF BLEND AS STATED
ABOVE. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT WILL ALSO BE
TRANSLATED TO THE SFC. WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW PRES PASSING S OF LONG ISLAND THU NIGHT OR FRI. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT COURTESY OF HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO OUR S...BUT A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF COAST RIDES ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT MARCHING TOWARDS THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
DURING THE DAY AND 40S...AROUND 50 IN NYC...AT NIGHT NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE...IMPACTING ABOUT HALF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY AS FORECASTING
THESE CLOUDS REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING.
LIGHT E-NE FLOW SHOULD BECOME SE-S 5-10 KT BY AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED
BY LATE DAY...SO WIND DIRECTION FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.
SCT TO BROKEN CLOUDS 5 TO 10 KFT ARE ANTICIPATED LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E/NE TO SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E/NE TO S/SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E TO SE MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E/NE TO SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TONIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ARE ON A SLOW DECLINE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL A 8 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WHICH WILL ENABLE FOR THE FURTHER
DECREASES IN WAVE HEIGHT TO BE RATHER SLOW. WAVEWATCH IS ALSO NOW
RUNNING A LITTLE LOW IN TERMS OF THE WAVE HEIGHT AT BUOY 44025. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO THE DAY SO THE
SMALL CRAFT WAS CONVERTED TO ONE JUST FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. GUSTS WILL
BE LOWERING WITH CURRENT GUSTS ONLY UP TO 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. THE
TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE OCEAN WEST OF MORICHES INLET WILL HAVE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z WHILE EAST OF THERE...IT REMAINS UNTIL
16Z.
THEREAFTER WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...SUB SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERALLY BETWEEN 1/4 AND
1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO
ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.
DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
404 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY...REMAINING GENERALLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WEAKENS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE THEN FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH DIURNAL WARMING THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND RURAL AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOCAL REGION. ALOFT...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WITH ITS BASE TO
OUR SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC LOW IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE LOSS
OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND INHERENTLY RESULTING IN THE FRONTOLYSIS.
THE ONLY EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE IN
THE 700 TO 850 MB COLUMN. THE LOWEST INVERSION AROUND 900MB GOING
INTO THIS MORNING IS SHOWN TO MIX OUT BUT THE ONE AROUND 700 TO
800MB WILL REMAIN ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO COLLECT HERE. THIS IS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP.
THE NAM AND RUC BUFKITS INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING WHILE THE GFS BUFKITS DOES NOT MOISTEN THE 700 TO 850MB LAYER
BUT IS SLOWER TO MIX OUT THE LOWEST INVERSION AROUND 900MB WITH ITS
CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ONLY EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THIS PARTICULARLY TOWARDS AND DURING TONIGHT. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUDS THERE WILL BE AND THE TIMING
OF THE HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE AND THIS IS ONE PARAMETER THAT
COULD FLUCTUATE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE RESULTING UNCERTAINTY
WAS THE REASON WHY AN EQUAL BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WAS CHOSEN
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THERE IS A LITTLE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT. HENCE...LOWS WERE PREFERRED WITH
A 3/4 MET WARMER GUIDANCE TO 1/4 COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
WILL KEEP FORECAST ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS
CONSIDERING THE LOWERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LACK OF WINDS TO
MIX DOWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE DAY AND NIGHTTIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A WARMER DAY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND THERE
IS MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS SOME PRETTY GOOD LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TOO WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 850MB VEERING TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 700MB. THE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET 2/3 AND COOLER 1/3 MAV
CONSIDERING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN COAST MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DIGGING TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA DIGS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH THE HIGH REMAINING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WARM ADVECTION RATHER WEAK...NOT
EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. LEANED TOWARD THE NAM AND
ECMWF AS THE GFS BECOMES AN OUTLIER BY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM. EVEN THE LIFT WITH THE COLD
FRONT IS WEAK AND WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH. FLOW REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FRONTAL TIMING TOUGH TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF THE WPC GUIDANCE AND THE
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE...IMPACTING ABOUT HALF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY AS FORECASTING
THESE CLOUDS REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING.
LIGHT E-NE FLOW SHOULD BECOME SE-S 5-10 KT BY AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED
BY LATE DAY...SO WIND DIRECTION FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.
SCT TO BROKEN CLOUDS 5 TO 10 KFT ARE ANTICIPATED LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E/NE TO SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E/NE TO S/SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E TO SE MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E/NE TO SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TONIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ARE ON A SLOW DECLINE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL A 8 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WHICH WILL ENABLE FOR THE FURTHER
DECREASES IN WAVE HEIGHT TO BE RATHER SLOW. WAVEWATCH IS ALSO NOW
RUNNING A LITTLE LOW IN TERMS OF THE WAVE HEIGHT AT BUOY 44025. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO THE DAY SO THE
SMALL CRAFT WAS CONVERTED TO ONE JUST FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. GUSTS WILL
BE LOWERING WITH CURRENT GUSTS ONLY UP TO 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. THE
TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE OCEAN WEST OF MORICHES INLET WILL HAVE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z WHILE EAST OF THERE...IT REMAINS UNTIL
16Z.
THEREAFTER WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...SUB SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO
ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.
DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1256 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
734 PM CDT
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY DROPPING MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST SO
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS. IN ADDITION
EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN IL AND LAKE COUNTY IL. PARTS OF INDIANA MAY SEE AREAS OF FROST
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
INDIANA COUNTIES IN THE FROST ADVISORY. LASTLY...LOWERED SKY
COVER ACROSS THE LAKE... NW INDIANA...AND NE ILLINOIS TOMORROW AS
THINKING LIGHT WINDS AND THE VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT THE
CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
JEE
//PREV DISCUSSION...
305 PM CDT
THE CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST ARE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORNING CLOUDS OFF THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND
THEN RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY. FINALLY THE SUBSEQUENT NOTEWORTHY COOL
DOWN INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME A GREATER FORECAST CHALLENGE AS
THIS WEEK PROGRESSES.
SYNOPSIS...EXPANSIVE 1030MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA BY
EVENING. COOL BUT MORE SEASONAL 850MB TEMPS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...INCLUDING +3C AT DVN. ALMOST ALL 12Z
GUIDANCE INITIALIZED TOO MILD WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL COOL AIR. THAT
MAY BE ONE REASON WHY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPS
TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
TONIGHT...SATELLITE REVEALS THE ONLY CLOUDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
REGION ARE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MI...AND THESE ARE IN PLACE THANKS
TO THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE STILL MILD WATERS. AS THE
HIGH DOES MOVE OVER THE AREA...850-1000MB LOW WILL TURN MORE
NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY. SPEEDS WILL DROP BUT ARE LIKELY
ENOUGH TO ADVECT LAKE-INDUCED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SATURATION ON
TOP OF THIS INDICATIVE OF STRATOCU INTO FAR NW IN AND THEN FAR NE
IL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAM AND LOCAL ARW SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL RH
FIELDS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO THIS SOLUTIONS...ALONG WITH SPC WRF
COLUMN CONDENSATE WHICH SEEMS TO DO WELL WITH STRATOCU IN THESE
SITUATIONS. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOW OR EVEN HALT THE TEMPERATURE
DROP LATE TONIGHT IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND OTHER LAKE ADJACENT
AREAS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...A PICTURE PERFECT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS SHAPING UP AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE BY EARLY TO MID EVE. HAD ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TREND TO REFLECT QUICK COOLING AFTER DARK...AND FOR MINS HAVE
CONSIDERED LAST NIGHTS TEMPS STRONGLY AS A BASELINE AS OPPOSED TO
ANY GUIDANCE SOURCE. THERE IS LITTLE REASON FOR OUTLYING AREAS TO BE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING...AND CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINTS
LEAN THAT ROUTE AS WELL INDICATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL MIXED
TODAY. SO EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 32 TO 35 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL WITH
MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE IN OUTLYING AREAS. CONSIDERING COCORAHS
OBSERVER COMMENTS THIS MORNING REPORTING PATCHY FROST...WOULD EXPECT
CLOSER TO A WIDESPREAD FROST IN NORTH CENTRAL IL. CONSIDERING THE
MILD NIGHT AS OF RECENT...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND COLLABORATED A FROST
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT...THE FIRST SUCH ADVISORY OF THE
SEASON.
MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON COLUMBUS DAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER IN NORTHEAST IL...POSSIBLY
AS FAR WEST AS NORTH CENTRAL IL...BUT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE CLOUD DEPTH LOOKS TO BE AT OR UNDER 3K FT AT MOST
OVER THE LAKE SO ANY STRATOCU MAY BEGIN TO THIN QUICKLY BY LATE
MORNING. MIXING LOOKS TO BE TO 875MB...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPORT 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS UT/NV WILL
SHIFT ENE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL
BE THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES EVOLVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. TOGETHER THESE WILL CARVE
OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONTINENT...EXTENDING INTO THE MIDWEST BY WEEKS END. THIS FIRST WAVE
ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS
PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COOL FRONT. THE GFS
REMAINS THE QUICKEST SOLUTION WITH THIS...BUT NOT BY MUCH AT ALL.
THE MEAN OF THE SOLUTIONS PAINTS THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAX POINTS INTO THE REGION. AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LIKELY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS MAY
PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER. INSTABILITY RETURN LOOKS TO BE
VERY MODEST AT BEST...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS MORNING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND RAIN. THE DRY SLOT STILL LOOKS TO EVOLVE OVER TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AT THAT POINT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRAPS AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND PREVAILS ON WED WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUE. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE IN WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD CORE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL LEAD TO
PROGRESSIVE THICKNESS FALLS AND COOLING TEMPS. THE 850 0C ISOTHERM
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY IN THE GFS/EC MEAN SOLUTION WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT IF INDEED HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS WHICH IT LOOKS TO.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS VERY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.
* LIGHT NORTH/VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMING EAST THIS MORNING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH TODAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO
BECOME CALM/LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK
LAND BREEZE IS SETTING UP BASED ON OBS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH IS
PROVIDING LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT ORD/MDW. SKIES ARE
CLEAR AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN BUT LAKE EFFECT STRATUS HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE. AT THIS POINT BASES
LOOK TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 FT RANGE BUT MAY SEE SOME LOWERING AS
COVERAGE INCREASES AND LAND AREAS COOL FURTHER. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE CHICAGO METRO TOWARD
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LOW END VFR CLOUD MENTION AT
ORD/MDW FOR NOW BUT BKN PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
LATE THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY BKN LOW END VFR CIGS AT GYY. ONCE
THE SUN RISES THE LAND BREEZE WILL FADE AND A LARGER SCALE LIGHT
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
THAT THE LAKE CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH TIME INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING WITH STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASING SPEEDS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THIS MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE IF THEY WILL BE MVFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...SHRA/FEW TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. MAINLY VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
WINDS WILL VEER TO OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT MID
AFTERNOON BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES ON ACROSS ONTARIO TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WITH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE APPROACHING STRENGTHENING LOW
WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN INCREASE TO MODERATE AND FRESH BREEZES
WHILE VEERING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH DURING MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-
ILZ039 UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1106 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 815 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2013
In the process of updating the ZFP this evening to include a Frost
Advisory for areas mainly north of a Lewistown to Bloomington line.
Early morning temperatures are expected to drop into the middle
30s across the north for a time Monday morning allowing frost to
form, especially away from the metropolitan areas of Peoria and
Bloomington. Further south, have added some patchy frost for early
Monday morning. Early evening temperatures were dropping off rapidly
with readings already in the middle 40s across the far north (Galesburg
and Lacon). The latest HRRR model suggests the threat for a more
prolonged period of calm winds north of I-74 in the 09z-12z time
frame as the center of the high will shift just north of our area.
Early evening dew points have settled into the lower to middle 30s
and that usually gives us a good idea where the early morning low
may dip to with this type of radiational cooling setup, especially
in low lying areas and in locations away from the city. Have edged
the overnight lows down a degree or two further south and as mentioned
above, added some patchy frost as well, but the best threat for our
first frost of the season will be mainly north of I-74 early Monday
morning. The updated zones should be out by 0145z.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2013
VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period (06z Tue).
High pressure will drift well to our north tonight into Monday
morning allowing a light northeast flow to prevail. A clear sky
can be expected into the early afternoon hours of Monday before
high level clouds increase ahead of the next weather system slated
to affect our area just after this forecast period. Surface winds
on Monday will veer slightly into an east-southeast direction at
around 10 kts.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2013
After collaboration with DVN and LOT, have added patchy frost to
areas across the northwest forecast area and made some minor
adjustments to other grids for late tonight and early Monday morning. Do
not expect frost to be widespread enough to warrant an advisory,
but wind protected areas may see some patchy frost.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
403 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
Confidence on the specifics of when and where best coverage of
precipitation will be over the next 24 hours is not high, but the
overall setup is for a widespread wet event over much of the Central
Plains.
00Z upper jet structure showed southern branch from central Baja
into Kansas with northern branch south and east around the Great
Basin upper low then northeast into the Four Corners, and this will
push east through tonight with persistent diffluence over Kansas
resulting. Deep moisture will steadily increase with stronger mid
level flow initially leading to better isentropic lift there
(ongoing in central portions of the state) and then somewhat lower
as the day progresses and 850 mb winds increase to near 60 kt around
00Z. Elevated creeps up as well for an increasing thunder concern
pushing east with time. Have generally indicated the most likely wet
periods from mid morning through early evening from west to east,
close to the WRF-ARW and recent HRRR runs which seem to be handling
the overnight convection the best. They are also similar with
surface-based storms breaking out in the KHLC vicinity in the late
afternoon hours as the mid level dry slot works northeast and cold
front surges east. With plenty of shear, CAPE will be the main
limiting factor with this activity maintaining itself through north
central Kansas, but at least minor concern for severe hail and wind
potential exist in western areas. Cold front sweeps through
overnight with clearing and drying taking over. High temperature
details are also difficult with onset and duration of daytime precip
and continued late-day south winds coinciding with some potential
dry periods in the west possibly leading to max values around 0Z.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
Drier air will move into eastern Kansas in the wake of the frontal
boundary and upper level system on Tuesday. Surface high pressure
will build into eastern Kansas Tuesday night and Wednesday keeping
winds rather light and temperatures below normal. GFS and ECMWF move
an upper trough across the plains Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Forecast soundings show dry air in the low and mid levels will be
present keeping chances of any measurable precipitation to the south
of the CWA. Cannot rule out a few sprinkles south of I-35 though.
Models continue to offer differing solutions for Friday through the
weekend. The ECMWF has been inconsistent while the GFS has been more
consistent on a run to run basis. The ECMWF is much sharper and
further south with the mid level trough while the GFS maintains a ridge
in the eastern Pacific and northwest flow across the Plains with a
broad upper low over Ontario into the Ohio Valley through the
weekend. However the ECMWF brings another shortwave trough across
Kansas Saturday. Given the differences in the models and limited
moisture availability, will go with a dry forecast at this time
and will wait and see what later model runs provide. Highs will
mainly be in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
Not much change to prior fcst as moisture surges northward across
the terminals overnight with stratocu deck thickening/lowering to
around 3500 feet by 11-13z time frame with some convection in the
vcnty. As the main axis of deeper moisture advects northward and
large scale lifts increases, showers and thunderstorms will
increase west to east across the terminals aft 16z with lowering
cigs to mvfr thru 00z. East southeasterly winds generally 5 to 8kts
will increase aft 12z with gusts aoa 20kts through the end of the
fcst period...although a gradual veering and decrease in speeds
may occur aft 02z/15 as front approaches.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
204 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MAINLY CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING. A SLOW
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A PORTION
OF THE HIGH RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1015MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF
THE NC/SC COAST WITH A STEADY PRESSURE TENDENCY. MEANWHILE...A
~1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
COAST OF MAINE IS SLOWLY BUILDING SSW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REVEALED BY +2MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...A
MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE COAST ABOVE THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE LOW. THE PRIMARY MOIST FRONTAL BAND (DOWNSTREAM
OF THE LOW) IS WELL OFF THE COAST OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...A MOIST AIRSTREAM CONTINUES TO FLOW WESTWARD
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA...WITH IR SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT SUGGESTING
SOME LIFT WITHIN THIS AIRSTREAM. THE LATEST RUC BRINGS THIS LIFT
INTO NE NC/FAR SE VA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SO A PERIOD
OF LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RAIN HAS BEEN INTRODUCED.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS. WITH NE
FLOW REMAINING BREEZY...LOWS WILL AVG 60-65 OVER SE VA/NE NC
MID- UPPER 50S NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MON WILL GENLY BEGIN CLOUDY AND DAMP ONCE AGAIN...BUT SLOW DRYING
FROM THE NNE WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE DAY. MDL TIME SECTIONS (WHICH
GENERALLY HOLD ONTO MSTR UP TO 3-4K FT) WILL HANG ONTO CLDY/DAMP
CONDS WELL THROUGH THE DAY MON ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...WHILE SKIES
BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACRS THE NORTH. HIGHS GENLY CLOSE TO 70 F
THROUGHOUT.
WK REFLECTION OF LO PRES LINGERS INVOF CSTL NC...AND SFC HI PRES
NNE OF THE RGN WKNS MON NGT THROUGH TUE. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE
IN PRONOUNCED CLRG...ESP ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...RMNG QUITE LOW. THERE
IS NO MECHANISM TO SCOUR OUT THE LO LVL MSTR...AND CONCERNED THAT
WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PROGRESS (OR TREND) TOWARD CLRG
ERY IN THE WK...LO CLDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE (OR EVEN IF
THERE IS CLRG ON MON IN SOME PLACES - CLDS RETURN MON NGT AND/OR
TUE). RA CHCS XPCD TO BE LWR FOR TUE...HWVR...WOULD NOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST PTCHY DZ CONTG ACRS THE SE. INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE
W TUE NIGHT/WED AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS. WILL SEE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED W/ HIGHS 70-75.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WSW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WED CAUSING THE SFC
RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO
WEAKEN. LATEST ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY FRI SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO ARISE FRI
NIGHT AS GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF DUE TO
TRENDS LATELY IN WHICH COLD FRONTS STRUGGLE TO BE ABLE TO PUSH THEIR
WAY COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AROUND THE AREA EXPECT WARMER TEMPS BUT WITH A
CLOUDIER/WETTER FORECAST. STRONGEST DYNAMICS STAY WELL TO OUR NW SO
WILL ONLY CARRY A 30% POP THU THROUGH FRI MORNING FOR NOW. TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO AVG BY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 70-75 AND A BIT ABOVE
AVG AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60 SE COAST. BY
SAT...ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW AGAIN BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...DUE
TO COMBINATION OF STRONG HI PRES BLDNG OVR NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK
AREA OF LO PRES OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE COAST. MAINLY IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND OCNL -RA/-DZ WILL PERSIST OVR THE TAF SITES THRU THIS
MORNG. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. BUT...IFR CONDITIONS (FOG OR
STRATUS) WILL LIKELY RETURN AGAIN LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...DUE
TO ANY CLEARING...CONTINUED WET GROUND...AND LIGHTER NE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER THE WATERS. STRONG 1031 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
MSLP) WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NE STATES AS THE PERSISTENT
SFC LOW OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL DRIFT SWD...LOCATING JUST
OFF THE SE NC COAST. NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS TRANSITION SWD OVER THE WATERS. GOOD LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL MIX THESE STRONGER WINDS TO THE WATER...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 28 KT ALREADY OBSERVED OVER THE CNTRL BAY AND NRN COASTAL
ZONES. HIGHER PLATFORMS...INCLUDING THE CBBT...HAVE REACHED 30 KT.
STRONG WINDS HAVE BUILT WAVES TO 4-5 FT IN THE BAY AND 6 TO 10 FT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFF THE NE
COAST MON AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST. GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX OVER THE NRN WATERS...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SRN BAY AS NE WINDS REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT AND WAVES
3-4 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 5-6 FT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
ZONES...AS SEAS IN THE SRN ZONES BUILD TO 6-9 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE NE COAST TUES...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT
TO RELAX OVER THE WATERS AND NE WINDS TO FINALLY FALL BELOW SCA
SPEEDS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS HIGH (5-6 FT)
AND SCA HEADLINES THRU LATE TUES. WILL ALSO KEEP SCA HEADLINES IN
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS 4 FT WAVES ARE FORECAST. HIGH SEAS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDS...BUT CONDITIONS OVER THE
BAY/RIVER/SOUND WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH ELY WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
10 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT-THURS
MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN 1 TO 1.5 FOOT
(APPROACHING 2 FT ALONG THE COASTAL ERN SHORE DUE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS) TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED
ALL HEADLINES THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES AS MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS EITHER IMMINENT...OR CONFIDENCE OF REACHING
MINOR FLOOD LEVELS IS HIGH. STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE BAY MAY PUSH
WATER LEVELS TO NEAR MODERATE THRESHOLDS AT WINDMILL POINT AND THE
LOWER NRN NECK MONDAY MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN DURING MONDAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEE CFWAKQ FOR MORE SITE-
SPECIFIC TIDAL INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ075>078-081-
082-084>086-089>091-093-094-096-097.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ095-
098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ099-
100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ630-631-636-
637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ635.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
527 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NE ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH A TROF EXTENDING SW INTO THE
ROCKIES WHERE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER UT/CO. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT LIFTS NE. BTWN THE SYSTEMS OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE
ROCKIES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID
20S TO LWR 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF UPPER MI. HERE AT NWS
MQT...THE TEMP SO FAR AS OF 09Z HAS FALLEN TO 30F...MAKING THIS THE
FIRST NIGHT THIS AUTUMN WITH A MIN TEMP AT OR BLO FREEZING. THIS
TIES 1997 FOR THE LATEST OCCURRENCE OF THE FIRST MIN TEMP AT OR BLO
FREEZING IN AUTUMN.
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE E TODAY WHILE SHORTWAVE
OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTS NE INTO THE WRN PLAINS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL W AND SW OF HERE TODAY. HOWEVER...RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SRN MANITOBA
WILL BRING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS ALREADY
AIDING SOME BANDS OF -SHRA ACROSS ND INTO NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING
PER RADAR IMAGERY THOUGH NOT ALL OF IT IS REACHING THE GROUND. THRU
LATE AFTN...PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET OVER NRN ONTARIO/SRN MANITOBA
WILL LEAD TO BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINING W OF THE FCST AREA AS
DOES ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR
MASS OVER THE AREA (SIMILAR TO 00Z KINL SOUNDING) WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS
TO THE W OVER MN. THUS...PLAN TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS UPPER
MI TODAY...BUT WILL BRING CHC POPS INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MID/LATE
AFTN AS ERN FRINGE OF PCPN AREA MAY MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO DRIER
AIR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY FROM W TO E AS CLOUDS SPREAD DOWNWIND FROM THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AREA TO THE W. GUIDANCE IS WELL
CLUSTERED ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S.
AS UPPER JET TO THE N LIFTS SLIGHTLY N AND E...THERE SHOULD BE AN
AREA OF -SHRA THAT SHIFTS ACROSS WRN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...PROBABLY TO THE N OF UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS WILL LIFT TO SE SD/SW MN/NW IA BY 12Z TUE WITH
HEALTHY FORCING NOTED BY DEEP LAYER QVECTORS SPREADING TOWARD UPPER
MI LATE. COMBINED WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON THE 300K SFC...EXPECT SHRA TO ADVANCE NE
INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
MODELS ARE IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT
LACK AGREEMENT ON SPECIFIC DETAILS /ESPECIALLY FOR TUE-WED/ THAT
LEADS TO A MORE UNCERTAIN FORECAST.
A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER FAR SW MN AT 12Z
TUE...WITH WAA DRIVEN PRECIP OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CWA THROUGH TUE
MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OR S OF THE CWA /DEPENDING OF
MODEL SOLUTION/ THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT AS A
TROWAL WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A
BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AND THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THE 00Z/14 GFS AND 00Z/14 NAM ARE FASTER AND
FARTHER N WITH THE TIMING/TRACK...WHICH MOVES THE TROWAL AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN E FASTER ON WED. THE 12Z/13 GEM AND 12Z/13 ECMWF ARE
SLOWER...BUT STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK. IF THE MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...EVEN THOUGH IT IS SLOWER...RAIN
WILL NOT LAST AS LONG ON WED AS EVEN THE GFS/NAM ARE SAYING SINCE
THE TROWAL WOULD BE S/SE OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER AND
FARTHER N SOLUTION OF THE GEM WOULD RESULT IN THE LONGEST LASTING
RAIN AS THE TROWAL STAYS OVER THE CWA INTO EARLY WED NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN MODEL TRENDS IN
THAT DIRECTION. WILL ALSO KEEP POPS HIGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS
CONFIDENCE OFF AREA WIDE RAIN IS GOOD AT THAT TIME.
FOR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...MODELS GIVE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
TROUGHING AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. AFTER THAT...A DEEP UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE S FROM HUDSON BAY CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN ONTARIO THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY COLD AIRMASS
OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THU...BUT PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN ALONG THE FRONT AS
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. WILL NOT GO HIGHER THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THU. BY 00Z SAT...850MB TEMPS COOL TO AROUND
-2C...SO EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP ALONG A SECONDARY AND STRONGER
COLD FRONT ON FRI GIVEN LAKE SFC TEMPS OF 9C TO 13C. MODELS THEN
SHOW 850MB TEMPS DECREASING TO -5C TO -7C FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVE THROUGH. WITH THESE
COLDER TEMPS...EXPECT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WITH INCREASES IN
INTENSITY WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM ANY CONTRIBUTING SYNOPTIC ENERGY. AS
FOR PRECIP TYPE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE ALL SNOW AT NIGHT/MORNING
WHEN TEMPS ARE COOLEST FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...AND MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
SO SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE WARMER DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRES REMAINS
IN CONTROL. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. RAIN AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT THRU MID AFTN. LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM W TO E AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS E AND LOW PRES LIFTS NE THRU THE PLAINS. BY TUE AFTN...E
TO NE WINDS WILL BE INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE LOW MOVES ENE JUST TO THE S OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTN THRU
WED MORNING...THESE STRONGER WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE
WILL SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE WINDS
BACK NORTHERLY. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF GALES TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E WED AFTN/NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER E AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE AOB 20KT THU/FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
445 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS WITH QUITE HIGH MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PLENTY OF FORECAST
CHALLENGES RANGING FROM TRYING TO REFINE SHORT-TERM
POPS...ASSESSING THE MAGNITUDE OF A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...DETERMINING THE EFFECTS OF
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIP ON HIGH TEMPS...AND ALSO TRYING TO
DETERMINE HOW CLOSE ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA MAY COME TO AT
LEAST BRIEFLY FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW.
08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A GRADUALLY-TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 1031 MILLIBAR HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...AND A 1006 LOW OVER NORTHEAST CO. AS A
RESULT...SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AT THIS
HOUR ARE AVERAGING AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA HIGHLIGHT A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PLOWING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH ITS 500MB VORT MAX CURRENTLY
SWINGING OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A 100+KT
JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CO...AND FARTHER DOWN A
40-50KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EVIDENT AT 850MB...RIGHT OVER
THE HEART OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NEB AND KS. MUCH AS EXPECTED FOR DAYS
NOW...STOUT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER HAS RESULTED IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. OF
COURSE...ITS NOT RAINING EVERYWHERE AT ONCE...AND EARLIER ON MOST
OF THE PRECIP WAS FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS THE MAIN FOCUS HAS TRANSITIONED TO ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST IN AT LEAST A SHORT
TERM LULL. ALTHOUGH ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PRODUCED/COULD PRODUCE VERY SMALL
HAIL...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MUCAPE IN THE
850-700MB LAYER ONLY AVERAGING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG PER LATEST RAP-
BASED MESOANALYSIS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...TEMPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER WHAT HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD COVER AND SLOWLY-INCREASING DEWPOINTS...WITH MOST ALL PLACES
CURRENTLY SOMEWHERE IN THE 50S.
FOCUSING ON THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THROUGH 00Z/7PM...TOOK A BEST
STAB AT 3-HOURLY POP TRENDS...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
ENTIRE CWA IS SPORTING AN 80-90 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
THROUGH SUNSET...ITS JUST A MATTER OF WHEN IT FALLS AND HOW MUCH
FALLS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE PRIMARY 500MB VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE NEB PANHANDLE
BY MID-DAY AS IT DEEPENS AND SWINGS NORTHEAST IN A NEGATIVELY
TILTED FASHION...AND THEN REACHING FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY AROUND
SUNSET. IN SUIT...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED IN
NORTHEAST CO IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL...BUT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...MEANING THAT IT GENERALLY
SKIRTS JUST ALONG THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY SUNSET WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 1003MB. MEANWHILE...A STOUT 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY...WHICH IN
TANDEM WITH CONTINUED LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD
PROMOTE RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ITS YET
TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAINLY STAYS
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY
HAPPENING...OR EVENTUALLY ALSO DEVELOPS OVER...OR MOVES INTO WESTERN
AREAS AS WELL. MODELS VARY...WITH SOME ENDING THE LULL OVER THE
WEST BY MID-MORNING...WHILE OTHERS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON EASTERN AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH MID-DAY. AT ANY
RATE...WOULD BE QUITE SURPRISED IF ANY OF THE CWA GOT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN...AS MANY EASTERN AREAS COULD
EASILY RECEIVE 0.50-0.75 INCH OR MORE THROUGH SUNSET. TURNING TO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HAS ALSO BEEN ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS
NOW WE ARE FACING A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AS SPC HAS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN A DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION HERE IS...HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE JUST
WEST OF...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INVADING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE INVADING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE COMBO...TO PROMOTE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SEVERE STORMS. FOLLOWING THE LEAD
OF THE LATEST RAP...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
PRECIP THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIKELY NOTHING MORE
THAN A HIT AND MISS THREAT OF SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO AROUND
DIME SIZE. HOWEVER...BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THE RAP BRINGS A
NARROW NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CAPE POTENTIALLY INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.
AS A RESULT...AND AS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW AND ALSO THE LATEST HRRR...A LINE OF FAST
MOVING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD SWEEP FROM WEST-
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MAINLY BETWEEN 4PM-9PM...BUT LIKELY
GRADUALLY LOSING STEAM AS IT DOES SO. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE STRONG...THUS MEANING THAT A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT IS NON-
ZERO...EXPECT SYNOPTIC FORCING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE A
LINEAR MODE FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WINDS
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 60 MPH...AND MAYBE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE. ALTHOUGH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WILL BE FOCUSING THE LOCAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK MAINLY ON THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...OR
ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF A LOUP CITY-BELOIT LINE WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE IT DROPS OFF FARTHER EAST AS NIGHT
FALLS. TURNING BRIEFLY TO OTHER ELEMENTS TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AND OBVIOUSLY VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
PRECIP IS FALLING AND WHETHER ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT BASED ON A VARIED BLEND OF SHORT TERM
MODELS/GUIDANCE HAVE A RANGE FROM ONLY MID-UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID-
UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS A BIT COOLER THAN A STRAIGHT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE BLEND AND COUNTS ON LOW CLOUDS HOLDING FIRM ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. WIND-WISE TODAY...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY QUITE BREEZY
WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...NOT
EXPECTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO BREACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH.
TURNING TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD/7PM-7AM/...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON HOW
QUICKLY CONVECTION VACATES THE AREA...AND HOW STRONG WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME. ON THE BIG PICTURE...THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL
ONLY SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEB TO NEAR SIOUX
FALLS...WHILE THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH AND
MAINTAINS A SIMILAR CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 1003MB. IN THE STOUT
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...AND IN AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MAY BE OVERALL-WINDIER TONIGHT THAN THEY ARE DURING THE
DAY TODAY...EXCEPT THIS TIME OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
QUICKLY PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS SLATED TO CRUISE ACROSS THE
CWA GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-11PM. ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE UNDER-DOING WIND
SPEEDS A BIT...AT LEAST FOR NOW EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO ONLY
AVERAGE IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH...AND THUS
FALLING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. NEIGHBORING
OFFICES TO THE WEST HAVE ISSUED WIND HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT JUST DON/T SEE THE LOCAL AREA
BEING QUITE WINDY ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH OF
COURSE LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. OTHERWISE...IN
TERMS OF PRECIP TRENDS...HAVE SLIGHTLY SPED UP THE DEPARTURE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH MUCH OF THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA LIKELY
DRIED OUT BY AROUND SUNSET...WHILE LIKELY POPS CONTINUE IN EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH 02Z/9PM BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS COULD CARRY AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT UNTIL THEY DEPART EASTERN AREAS...BUT WOULD EXPECT
THE MAIN THREAT TO DIMINISH POST-SUNSET. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP WILL VACATE THE AREA THIS EVENING...DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
BARELY BRUSHING THE CWA ON THE SOUTH-END OF THE WRAP-AROUND
SHIELD. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
NEB HOWEVER. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH MOST OF
THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 39-42 RANGE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA MAY BE HELD UP A BIT BY
PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS WRAPPING BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THOSE
VENTURING OUT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WILL DEFINITELY NOTICE A
BITE TO THE AIR...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH FROST/FREEZE CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
BUSY PATTERN STARTING OUT TUESDAY MORNING AS 500MB CLOSED LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SDAK/MN BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM STACKED AS
SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE JUST A TAD SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW
POSITION. IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER LOW...TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AS NOTED ABOVE...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY
AS WE SIT IN BETWEEN A WOUND UP SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER
AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A 20MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NEBRASKA. SHOULD SEE
SUSTAINED 25 MPH WINDS AT LEAST AND MAY BE APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM MID MORNING
TO MID AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE. IF WE
DO GET ANY IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN ONE OR TWO
HUNDREDTHS.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND ALSO EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT...SO WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30...MUCH OF THE CWA STANDS A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING FROST WED MORNING.
ON THURSDAY ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. FRIDAY IS A
LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS A DEEP UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE U.S. THE EC MODELS BRINGS DOWN MUCH COLDER
AIR THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. IT ALSO BRINGS A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND GENERATES SOME MODERATE
QPF WITH IT. THE GFS NOT SHOWING THIS AND THE GEM IS ALSO
UNDERPLAYING THIS FEATURE. CHECKING THE ALL BLEND POPS...THEY ARE
ONLY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. BACK TO
THE EC...IF ONE WERE TO ONLY LOOK AT 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...THERE
MAY BE CAUSE FOR CONCERN AS THE EC IS SHOWING THICKNESSES CONDUCIVE
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE EC SHOWS SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY MORNING.
ALSO THE GROUND SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM SINCE HIGHS ON WED AND
THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 60. SO IF THE EC DOES VERIFY WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS TO BE MORE OF A
COLD RAIN. OF COURSE THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
A FAIRLY ACTIVE 24 HOURS OF WEATHER AWAITS THE TERMINAL...WITH
VARIOUS CONCERNS INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...SEVERAL HOURS OF
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS WITH IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...GOOD
CHANCES FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PASSING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...AND
FINALLY A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GOING ROUGHLY IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER WITH THESE ISSUES...HAVE
MAINTAINED A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 15Z...AS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET STREAM WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 30-40KT WIND
VECTOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1800 FT
AGL...THANKS TO WINDS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER AVERAGING AROUND
50KT FROM THE SOUTH. SECONDLY...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
USHER IN HIGH-END MVFR CEILING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
THIS CEILING LIKELY LOWERING INTO LOW-END MVFR THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE KEPT OUT ANY IFR CEILING FOR NOW...BUT
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS TIME GOES BY
EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY...AND AM ADVERTISING EITHER VCSH/VCTS OR OUTRIGHT
PREVAILING -SHRA THROUGH THE FIRST 21 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE
THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY RISK OF PRECIP ENDS
MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20KT WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO
AT LEAST 26KT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BEFORE AN ABRUPT SWITCH
TO WESTERLY WINDS OCCURS AROUND SUNSET AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...WITH GUST POTENTIAL CONTINUING TO AT LEAST 26KT WELL INTO
THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO RAISE CEILING BACK INTO LOW-END VFR TERRITORY
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT PLENTY OF PASSING LOW-LEVEL STRATUS COULD
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
355 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE RAIN TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND DETERMINING RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AT 08Z...SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH PARTS
OF NEBRASKA...THEN EXTENDED SOUTHWEST THROUGH COLORADO AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER UTAH PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WAS AN IMPRESSIVE JET MAX OF AROUND 145
KNOTS AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL ANALYSIS NEAR THE COLORADO-
NEW MEXICO BORDER. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED WITHIN
THIS PRECIPITATION AREA. THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW WAS MAXIMIZED FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE 3 HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS WERE 2-3MB.
BASED ON THE 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT RISES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE EXPECTED SCENARIO IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE
FROM UTAH INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
PIVOT THE JET AXIS TO A MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION...POSITIONING IT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO-SOUTHERN KANSAS. EXPECT STRONG UPWARD
FORCING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF: THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAX...STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM CONVEYER BELT REGION...AND
CONTINUED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A WELL-DEFINED EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE PATTERN
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TONIGHT.
IN THESE SCENARIOS WE CAN PLAN ON SOMEWHAT HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE
LOW DURING THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING...THEN THE DRY SLOT
PUSHING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEN AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WITH
CLOSER TO 0.5 INCH NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER...AND 1-1.5 INCHES NEAR
I-80. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE MODEL RAINFALL.
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF AROUND 60 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN 40-45
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE QUITE STRONG AND COULD MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
AREAS GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF NORFOLK.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER
TUESDAY THAN TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...CLOUDS...AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY WITH COOL/QUIET WEATHER. THE
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA SETTLES INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN US...AND THIS KEEPS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME INTO NEXT WEEK.
NIETFELD
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
CEILINGS WILL DECREASE AND PCPN WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. KOFK COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS MOVING IN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AT KLNK AND KOMA. AT LEAST
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT KOFK AND KLNK WITH
TSRA. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z TUESDAY FOR KLNK AND KOMA BUT
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE KOFK AREA.
MILLER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR OHIO RIVER TODAY. FRONT WASHES OUT
TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POST
FRONTAL DISTURBANCE RACES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WASHED OUT/STALLED SURFACE FRONT...REALLY MORE A WEAK PRESSURE
TROUGH AT THIS POINT...RUNS FROM JUST WEST OF CKB TO JUST EAST OF
HTS. DO HAVE SOME SOME MORE ENHANCED ECHOS SHOWING UP ALONG OR JUST
WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND ALSO IN NORTH CENTRAL WV. UPPED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THESE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. RAP SHOWS
AN ELONGATED VORT LOBE MOVING ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING...SO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TRANSITIONING
MORE TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL STRUGGLES TO CLEAR OUT...SO THINK PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
TODAY...EXCEPT VERY WESTERN CWA WHERE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ALREADY DRIFTING IN. VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED POPS SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WITH A
PRECIP FREE FORECAST BY LATE TONIGHT. COOLED HIGHS JUST A BIT TODAY
WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND STAYED NEAR TO JUST ABOVE THE WARMER
MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A VERY STRANGE PATTERN OF LATE...WE FINALLY GET THE ATMOSPHERE
MOVING AGAIN DURING THIS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
SO SEVERAL FEATURES TO TIME.
DRIER AIR AT 925 TO 850 MBS THAT IS OFF THE JERSEY COAST THIS
PREDAWN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SNEAK BACK WSW AND REACH OUR MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY. SO EXPECTING LESS CLOUDS THERE DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO SAY OUR OHIO COUNTIES. WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE TUESDAY.
WITH THE 700 MB FLOW INCREASING IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WAS JUST A BIT FASTER BRINGING BACK SOME CHANCE POPS FOR
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST. ALSO...KEPT
TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN MOST MOS GUIDANCE THERE.
INITIAL TIMING OF FRONT IS THROUGH OUR OHIO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES BY
MIDDAY AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES BY SUNSET. SO...THE ONLY
CHANGE WORTH MENTIONING WAS A BIT FASTER LOWERING POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST. LEFT OUR FRONTAL POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE...WAS NOT IMPRESSED
ENOUGH TO RAISE TO CATEGORICAL. WITH THAT TIMING...LOWERED
DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY.
WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 6 TO 8C OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HELD ONTO SOME POPS OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...AS WE
SQUEEZE OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. YET...FURTHER WEST...AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING AS EVEN THE 850 MOISTURE THINS OUT.
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF
HAVE COME AROUND TO WHAT THE GFS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING PREVIOUSLY.
THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACES THROUGH HERE THURSDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE INCREASES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO HELD
THURSDAY MORNING DRIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THINK CLEARING WILL DEVELOP IN OUR WESTERN LOWLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR DAWN FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND SPILLING INTO A FEW RURAL AREAS OF
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE SOME 35 TO 40 DEG TEMPERATURES
THERE...WILL MENTION/ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN A FEW SPOTS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT THINK IT
WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE HAVING DISAGREEMENTS ON HANDLING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY IN THE SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ALL AGREE THAT A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
EXIT EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE SHOWERS WITH IT. SOME COOLER
AND DRIER AIR DOES FLOW IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BIG QUESTION BECOMES WHAT HAPPENS TO A CHUNK OF ENERGY LEFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS IT GETS QUICKLY EJECTED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA. WILL GO WITH
PERSISTENCE IN OUR FORECAST AND ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS...USING
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AVAILABLE...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE LIFTING
UP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO DRIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE A WEAK AND RATHER MOISTURE LIMITED
COOL FRONT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FREEZE/FROST OUTSIDE THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA IS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT OBS SHOW IFR CIGS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH VFR ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER EXPECT EASTERN CWA TO GRADUALLY DROP BACK
INTO MVFR AND IFR AT BKW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FOG...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN
MOSTLY OF THE MVFR VARIETY WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER. CLEAR SKIES ON
SATELLITE JUST INTO WESTERN CWA...AND COULD SEE THIS PUSH TOWARDS
HTS...AND POSSIBLY PKB OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...BUT SIDED WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS IN KEEPING CLOUDS IN PLACE. SHOULD IT
CLEAR...DENSE FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SLOWED DOWN RETURN TO VFR
TODAY...HOWEVER ALL SITES SHOULD REBOUND AS THE DAY GOES ALONG
WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND AS A VORT
LOBE PASSES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: HTS MAY CLEAR AND FOG. TIMING OF CIG CAT
CHANGES ACROSS CWA MAY VARY...WITH SOME BOUNCING AROUND POSSIBLE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 10/14/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L M M M M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1231 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...DEBRI CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ZAPATA AND
JIM HOGG COUNTY UNTIL SUNRISE PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER KBRO...
KHRL AND KMFE IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZIER SE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...MONITORING CONVECTION THAT HAS SO FAR REMAINED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A RIPPLE IN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW OF TS OCTAVE
WILL LEAD TO STRONGER DIFFLUENCE PUSHING SOUTHEAST AND HOLDING
THROUGH SUNRISE. LOW LAYER ANALYSIS AND THE NAM12/RAP SUGGEST
INCREASING CONVERGENCE OVER MAINLY JIM HOGG/ZAPATA COUNTY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT NONZERO INSTABILITY
AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH SATELLITE AND RAP PWAT ESTIMATES AROUND 2.2
INCHES WHICH IS REASONABLY IN LINE WITH 00Z REGIONAL BALLOON
RELEASES. WITH AT LEAST SOME BAROCLINICITY IN THE 850/700MB LAYER
MORE FOCUSED REGIONAL TROUGHING COULD SET UP ALONG OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
CONSIDERING THE ABOVE HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN ZAPATA/BROOKS/STARR/JIM HOGG COUNTIES.
LOCAL FLOODING RISK STILL APPEARS LIMITED BY A STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. -JGG/GB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7 TO 10
KNOTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS JIM HOGG AND ZAPATA COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DRIER
AIR AROUND 3000 FT IS EXPECTED TO HELP KEEP CIGS VFR BUT PATCHY
HIGH MVFR IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE AND HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECKS SHOULD
RISE ABOVE 3000 FT AND BECOME SCATTERED TO FEW BY MID MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. /68-JGG/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPIN
JUST OT THE SOUTH...WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND IT. WEAK
IMPULSE EXPECTED TODAY WENT FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST...SO SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN ISOLATED AND HAVE FOR THE MOST PART MOVED OFF TO THE
NORTH. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GET SHUNTED FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHILE MUCH DRIER AIR NOTED TO THE SOUTH ON WV
IMAGERY WILL REPLACE IT STARTING TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO
THE POP CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER HUMID DAY IN STORE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE 500 MB RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND SOUTHERN TX WILL BE STEADILY ERODED AWAY
LATER THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL DIG ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING WITH A
SECOND FRONT PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX THIS SATURDAY.
AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING ERODES AWAY THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
FEED (WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED FROM THE LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM
T.S. OCTAVE IN THE EASTERN PAC) WILL SHIFT STEADILY SOUTHWARDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT INCREASING THE CONV POTENTIAL DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUN WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS GENERALLY AGREE IN THE HANDLING OF THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND THE OVERALL MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THURS.
AT THIS POINT THE GFS DEVIATES FROM THE ECMWF AND TRIES TO DEVELOP
A SURFACE COASTAL LOW NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND LIFTS THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DOES NOT REFLECT
THIS FEATURE AS WELL AND TENDS TO WANT TO DRY OUT THE AREA MUCH
FASTER AS SURFACE RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THURS AND WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH AROUND THURS AND IS THEN ONLY AVERAGE AFTER THURS DUE TO
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL GO FAIRLY CLOSE TO GFS MEX MOS TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF POPS
AFTER THURSDAY.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MINIMAL CHANGE IN MARINE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF...WHILE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH TEXAS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE SEAS STAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
TUES AND WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. A MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE
FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS. HOWEVER ONLY
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS THE STRONG PGF MAY BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED. A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO FRI
AS SURFACE RIDGING SAGS OVER THE GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATES SWELLS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
67/61
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1128 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND THERMAL
TROUGHING HAVE KEPT A STUBBORN STRATO-CU FIELD OVER THE NE THIRD
OF THE STATE...THOUGH ITS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING NE OVER THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUDS...TEMPS AND FROST HEADLINES.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHOULD SEE HIGH CIRRUS MOVE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...WHILE
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
LATE. SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE CLOUDS MOVING INLAND THAT COULD MESS
AROUND WITH FROST FORMATION OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE 5 KTS OR UNDER...AND LOCAL
DATA SUGGESTS LAND BREEZES WILL DEVELOP THAT WILL KEEP LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT...WILL LOWER TEMPS OVER EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF
FROST SO WITH COLLAB FROM OTHER OFFICES...WILL HOIST A FROST
ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR DOOR COUNTY.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA...EASTERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE MORNING...AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO
PUSH A MID-LAKE CLOUD BAND INLAND. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING. THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
MORE SUN EAST VERSUS WEST. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
PATTERN OVER CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO CONSIST OF STRONG UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROF/ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN CHANCES
CONTINUE...ALBEIT LOWER POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS COOLER AIR ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND A SECONDARY
WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF MOVE THRU. TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL THRU THU
AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PCPN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT MON AS WAA PATTERN SPREADS
EAST OVER THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY LAYER IN MID
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT MON. HAVE SLOWED PCPN A BIT EARLY
EVENING...THOUGH LEFT REST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST STAND...STAYING
DRY OVER THE EAST. WIDESPREAD PCPN EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE EVENING
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH STATE. DEEPER MOISTURE STRIPPED OUT
LATER TUE NIGHT/WED LEADING TO LOWER POPS OR LIGHT PCPN.
STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...THUS
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST. HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP ON
LAKE/BAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED GIVEN COLD AIR MASS MOVING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
CLEAR SKIES AND MAYBE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED
IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY FORM NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE BAY TOWARDS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS THAT CLOUDS
BASES WILL BE BETWEEN 2500 FT AND 3500FT. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY
LINGER AT MTW/SUE/GRB/MNM/OCQ WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ038-039-
048>050.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RIVERTON WY
1120 PM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013
.UPDATE...
INSERTED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS LOOMING TO OUR WEST OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND
UTAH. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY IN OUR MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF JOHNSON COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
CURRENTLY WE ARE UNDER THE SOUTHWEST UPPER DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR LIGHTNING ALONG THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF WYOMING FROM WEAK
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THIS MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REPLACED THE
MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE WEST. A CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON PIH RADAR IN EASTERN
IDAHO JUST WEST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE RUC INDICATING
INCREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE GFS...NAM AND THE ECMWF ALL
AGREE ON KEEPING THE MAIN JET ENERGY WELL TO THE SOUTH TRACKING
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH THE VORT ENERGY
STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THE
SURFACE FLOW IS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ATTM...EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...BUT AT MAINLY LIGHT SPEEDS. ONCE THE MAIN LOW OVER
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA STARTS TO BOMB...THE NORTH WINDS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WILL STRENGTHEN AND THUS INCREASE UPSLOPE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL. THE GFS INDICATES 3 SEPARATE SUBTLE CIRCULATIONS AT
700MB THAT WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF WYOMING
TONIGHT...NOT THE MOST ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED Q VECTOR
FORCING AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH THE 700MB CIRCULATIONS
TRACKING ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT WITH THE MAIN ENERGY WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...THE THINKING WAS ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES EAST OF THE DIVIDE...NAMELY THE WIND
RIVER...ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS CASPER
MOUNTAIN. THE BIG HORNS AND CASPER MTN WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND
ROUGHLY SIX HOURS COMPARED TO THE WINDS AND THE ABSAROKAS. DECIDED
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS...THE HIGH END SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE TIME OF YEAR AND
ALL THE HUNTERS THAT WILL BE NEGOTIATING THE WINTER CONDITIONS.
THE BULK OF THE COLDEST 700MB AIR WILL COME CLOSEST TO JOHNSON
COUNTY WHERE ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR THAT ZONE FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR BYG AND SHR BUT NONE FOR THE OTHER MOS GUIDANCE
FORECAST POINTS WHERE 700MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BY THE NAM TO BE
-9.5C IN NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY 00Z TUESDAY. NOT ONLY IS
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JOHNSON
COUNTY BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THERE AS WELL ON MONDAY ONCE THE STORM BOMBS
TO THE EAST. THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JOHNSON COUNTY AND THE GREEN MTNS...FOR
THAT MATTER...NEED A HILITE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTER SOME LINGERING FLURRIES...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER WYOMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FIRST...RESULTING IN A
VERY CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REMAIN OVER
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A CLEARING
SKY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL SEE A SUNNY SKY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN SETS UP ALOFT OVER WYOMING. IT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER MODELS. FURTHER IN
THE EXTENDED WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVES
IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...
WEST CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER NORTHERLY
STREAM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THESE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...BUT PREFER THE DRIER GFS FOR NOW. IF ANY AREA
WERE TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN...IT WOULD BE THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MOST TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE CEILINGS LIFT AT TIMES IN THE 035-050 KFT AGL RANGE. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT THE ROCK SPRINGS AND BIG
PINEY TERMINALS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE WORSE EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD...ALSO CHANGING SHOWERY PRECIP TO MORE
STRATIFORM. MOST AREAS SHOULD CHANGE BY 14Z. WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MONDAY IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS WITH WINDY
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE THROUGH 18Z TODAY.
HOWEVER A CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS NEAR THE
LANDER AND CASPER AREAS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAIN PASSES.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
ICING FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER...
IRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW
PRESSURE...AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME OF
THE WEST CENTRAL WYOMING MOUNTAIN RANGES. THIS SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
BY MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE COOL
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE WIND OR MIXING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
MONDAY NIGHT WYZ022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY WYZ002-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
MONDAY NIGHT WYZ008-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY
NIGHT WYZ010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT MONDAY WYZ003.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WM
SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...KPL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
759 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013
.UPDATE...CONVECTION INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR HIGHER POPS THIS
MORNING AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOG IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING REPLACED BY A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THESE WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH 14Z-16Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS WITH FRONT. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 35
KTS WITH THOSE SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
16Z BUT LESS WIND WITH THOSE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND CLOSE OFF
OVER THE NEBRASKA PAN HANDLE AROUND 18Z. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING DRY AIR TO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING...THE DRY SLOT.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING. AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS
COLORADO. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE
NAM...RAP AND HRRR ARE ALL MUCH LATER SHOWING THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. NORMALLY THE QUICKER SOLUTION OF
THE GFS/ECMWF PANS OUT. APPEARS THE GFS IS HANDLING THE SURFACE
PATTERN BETTER AND EXPECT ITS FORECAST TO BE BETTER.
FOR THE FRONT RANGE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH AND UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FOR SHOWERS TO FORM. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. BETTER OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 00Z. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE...APPEARS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT TODAY SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL HELP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. THIS COMBINED WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...JUST
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
SOME WEAK SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AFTER SUNSET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FALLING BELOW FREEZING.
LONG TERM...A CHILLY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS IS STILL INDICATED OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING ON TUESDAY BENEATH A WESTERN EXTENSION
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED EITHER OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
OR WESTERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A 1030MB
SFC HIGH IN THE COLDEST AIR COVERING NORTHERN WYOMING AND NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY SFC-700 MB FLOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COLORADO.
MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW FORMING OVER EASTERN UTAH AROUND
MIDDAY...AND THEN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN COMBINATION WITH
PRESSURE RISES IN ADVANCE OF THE SOUTHWARD TREKING SFC HIGH IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A RESULT COULD SEE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE FRONT RANGE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...AND ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT THIS SECONDARY UPPER LOW AND SFC HIGH
MIGRATE SOUTH AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS...RESULTING IN AN END TO
PRECIP AROUND HERE. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE
COOLEST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGHS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NOT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 40S.
FOR REST OF THE WEEK...FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO A NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT BASIN AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE ECMWF SHOWS A COLD FRONT RACING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE EC SHOWS THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH NERN
COLORADO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE GFS DOESN/T SHOW IT ARRIVING
UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS ADDS MORE UNCERTAINTY TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FCST FOR THAT DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ECMWF
DRIVES THIS SYSTEM STRAIGHT SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN AMPLE CLOUD
COVER...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIP...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE MTNS AND PLAINS. THE
CANADIAN GEM INDICATES A NEARLY SIMILAR PATTERN DEVELOPING...BUT NOT
AS COLD OR AS WET. WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM JUST GLANCING
THE AREA BRINGING ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. SINCE THIS
IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL APPLY A BLEND OF THESE MODELS TO
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN WEST THEN TO NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND 16Z CAUSING WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4000 TO 8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH CEILING OF 2000 TO 5000
FEET POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE CEILINGS COULD FALL BELOW 2000
FEET BY 12Z TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS. SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ031-
033.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
409 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND CLOSE OFF
OVER THE NEBRASKA PAN HANDLE AROUND 18Z. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING DRY AIR TO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING...THE DRY SLOT.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING. AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS
COLORADO. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE
NAM...RAP AND HRRR ARE ALL MUCH LATER SHOWING THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. NORMALLY THE QUICKER SOLUTION OF
THE GFS/ECMWF PANS OUT. APPEARS THE GFS IS HANDLING THE SURFACE
PATTERN BETTER AND EXPECT ITS FORECAST TO BE BETTER.
FOR THE FRONT RANGE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH AND UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FOR SHOWERS TO FORM. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. BETTER OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 00Z. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE...APPEARS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT TODAY SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL HELP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. THIS COMBINED WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...JUST
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
SOME WEAK SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AFTER SUNSET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FALLING BELOW FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...A CHILLY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS IS STILL INDICATED OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING ON TUESDAY BENEATH A WESTERN EXTENSION
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED EITHER OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
OR WESTERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A 1030MB
SFC HIGH IN THE COLDEST AIR COVERING NORTHERN WYOMING AND NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY SFC-700 MB FLOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COLORADO.
MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW FORMING OVER EASTERN UTAH AROUND
MIDDAY...AND THEN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN COMBINATION WITH
PRESSURE RISES IN ADVANCE OF THE SOUTHWARD TREKING SFC HIGH IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A RESULT COULD SEE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE FRONT RANGE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...AND ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT THIS SECONDARY UPPER LOW AND SFC HIGH
MIGRATE SOUTH AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS...RESULTING IN AN END TO
PRECIP AROUND HERE. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE
COOLEST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGHS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NOT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 40S.
FOR REST OF THE WEEK...FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO A NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT BASIN AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE ECMWF SHOWS A COLD FRONT RACING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE EC SHOWS THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH NERN
COLORADO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE GFS DOESN/T SHOW IT ARRIVING
UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS ADDS MORE UNCERTAINTY TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FCST FOR THAT DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ECMWF
DRIVES THIS SYSTEM STRAIGHT SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN AMPLE CLOUD
COVER...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIP...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE MTNS AND PLAINS. THE
CANADIAN GEM INDICATES A NEARLY SIMILAR PATTERN DEVELOPING...BUT NOT
AS COLD OR AS WET. WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM JUST GLANCING
THE AREA BRINGING ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. SINCE THIS
IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL APPLY A BLEND OF THESE MODELS TO
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN WEST THEN TO NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND 16Z CAUSING WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4000 TO 8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH CEILING OF 2000 TO 5000
FEET POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE CEILINGS COULD FALL BELOW 2000
FEET BY 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS. SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ031-
033.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
913 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DRIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE THEN FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOCAL REGION. ALOFT...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WITH ITS BASE
TO OUR SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC LOW IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE LOSS
OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND INHERENTLY RESULTING IN THE FRONTOLYSIS.
THE ONLY EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE IN
THE 700 TO 850 MB COLUMN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST
INVERSION AROUND 900MB GOING INTO THIS MORNING IS SHOWN TO MIX OUT
BUT THE ONE AROUND 700 TO 800MB WILL REMAIN ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE
TO COLLECT HERE. THIS IS WHERE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUDS THERE WILL BE AND
THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE AND THIS IS ONE PARAMETER
THAT COULD FLUCTUATE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
THE NAM AND RUC BUFKITS INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING WHILE THE GFS BUFKITS DOES NOT MOISTEN THE 700 TO 850MB LAYER
BUT IS SLOWER TO MIX OUT THE LOWEST INVERSION AROUND 900MB WITH ITS
CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
THE RESULTING UNCERTAINTY WAS THE REASON WHY AN EQUAL BLEND OF MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE WAS CHOSEN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND DISSIPATING. ONLY EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THIS WITHIN THE 700-850MB LAYER FROM WEST
TO EAST.
THERE IS A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT.
HENCE...LOWS WERE PREFERRED WITH A 3/4 MET WARMER GUIDANCE TO 1/4
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
WILL KEEP FORECAST ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS
CONSIDERING THE LOWERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LACK OF WINDS TO
MIX DOWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT.
GOING WITH A WARMER DAY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
THERE IS MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS SOME PRETTY GOOD
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TOO WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 850MB
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 700MB. THE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY
MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET 2/3 AND COOLER 1/3 MAV
CONSIDERING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA BY WED EVE WITH A
TROUGH TRACKING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
FIRST TROUGH WHICH HAS A RIPPLE EFFECT ON LATER PERIODS. THE
GFS/GEFS MEAN IS FASTEST...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE EC AND
SREF...THEN THE NAM AND CMC AND LASTLY THE UKMET. HAVE STUCK WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN...NAM/SREF BLEND UNTIL THIS IS BETTER
RESOLVED. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CARVED
OUT THROUGH CENTRAL NOAM. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH YET ANOTHER NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES ENTRENCHED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL
WEAKEN AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS
ARE VARYING WITH THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS FEATURE AND HOW MUCH IT
WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA ON WED. FOR NOW HAVE SCHC POPS ACROSS
THE EAST END ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS SYSTEMS MOISTURE MAY BE
INFUSED INTO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT. HAVE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING...CONSISTENT WITH A NAM/SREF BLEND AS STATED
ABOVE. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT WILL ALSO BE
TRANSLATED TO THE SFC. WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW PRES PASSING S OF LONG ISLAND THU NIGHT OR FRI. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT COURTESY OF HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO OUR S...BUT A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF COAST RIDES ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT MARCHING TOWARDS THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
DURING THE DAY AND 40S...AROUND 50 IN NYC...AT NIGHT NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE...IMPACTING ABOUT HALF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY AS FORECASTING
THESE CLOUDS REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NE FLOW SHOULD BECOME SE-S 5-10 KT BY AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED
BY LATE DAY...SO WIND DIRECTION FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.
SCT TO BROKEN CLOUDS 5 TO 10 KFT ARE ANTICIPATED LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING AROUND OR JUST UNDER 3
KFT AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E/NE TO S/SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING AROUND OR JUST UNDER 3
KFT AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO E/SE MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING AROUND OR JUST UNDER 3 KFT AT
TIMES THIS MORNING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CEILING AROUND OR JUST UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES
THIS MORNING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE CEILING AROUND OR JUST UNDER 3 KFT
AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E/NE TO SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING AROUND OR JUST UNDER 3
KFT AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR.
.TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE SUB VFR IN STRATUS AND FOG.
.WED-FRI...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND WIND HAS
DIMINISHED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY. IN RESPONSE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT.
THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THEREAFTER WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...SUB SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERALLY BETWEEN 1/4 AND
1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO
ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.
DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
728 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY...REMAINING GENERALLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WEAKENS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE THEN FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOWERED CLOUDS FOR EASTERN HALF OF REGION AS WELL AS LOWERED
TEMPERATURES WITH VASTLY DIFFERENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BECAUSE OF
THE PATCHY CLOUD COVERAGE. OTHER THAN THAT...FORECAST MAINLY ON
TRACK.
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH DIURNAL WARMING THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND RURAL AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOCAL REGION. ALOFT...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WITH ITS BASE TO
OUR SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC LOW IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE LOSS
OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND INHERENTLY RESULTING IN THE FRONTOLYSIS.
THE ONLY EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE IN
THE 700 TO 850 MB COLUMN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST
INVERSION AROUND 900MB GOING INTO THIS MORNING IS SHOWN TO MIX OUT
BUT THE ONE AROUND 700 TO 800MB WILL REMAIN ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE
TO COLLECT HERE. THIS IS WHERE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUDS THERE WILL BE AND
THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE AND THIS IS ONE PARAMETER
THAT COULD FLUCTUATE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
THE NAM AND RUC BUFKITS INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING WHILE THE GFS BUFKITS DOES NOT MOISTEN THE 700 TO 850MB LAYER
BUT IS SLOWER TO MIX OUT THE LOWEST INVERSION AROUND 900MB WITH ITS
CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
THE RESULTING UNCERTAINTY WAS THE REASON WHY AN EQUAL BLEND OF MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE WAS CHOSEN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND DISSIPATING. ONLY EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THIS WITHIN THE 700-850MB LAYER FROM WEST
TO EAST.
THERE IS A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT.
HENCE...LOWS WERE PREFERRED WITH A 3/4 MET WARMER GUIDANCE TO 1/4
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
WILL KEEP FORECAST ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS
CONSIDERING THE LOWERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LACK OF WINDS TO
MIX DOWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT.
GOING WITH A WARMER DAY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
THERE IS MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS SOME PRETTY GOOD
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TOO WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 850MB
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 700MB. THE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY
MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET 2/3 AND COOLER 1/3 MAV
CONSIDERING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA BY WED EVE WITH A
TROUGH TRACKING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
FIRST TROUGH WHICH HAS A RIPPLE EFFECT ON LATER PERIODS. THE
GFS/GEFS MEAN IS FASTEST...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE EC AND
SREF...THEN THE NAM AND CMC AND LASTLY THE UKMET. HAVE STUCK WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN...NAM/SREF BLEND UNTIL THIS IS BETTER
RESOLVED. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CARVED
OUT THROUGH CENTRAL NOAM. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH YET ANOTHER NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES ENTRENCHED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL
WEAKEN AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS
ARE VARYING WITH THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS FEATURE AND HOW MUCH IT
WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA ON WED. FOR NOW HAVE SCHC POPS ACROSS
THE EAST END ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS SYSTEMS MOISTURE MAY BE
INFUSED INTO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT. HAVE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING...CONSISTENT WITH A NAM/SREF BLEND AS STATED
ABOVE. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT WILL ALSO BE
TRANSLATED TO THE SFC. WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW PRES PASSING S OF LONG ISLAND THU NIGHT OR FRI. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT COURTESY OF HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO OUR S...BUT A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF COAST RIDES ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT MARCHING TOWARDS THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
DURING THE DAY AND 40S...AROUND 50 IN NYC...AT NIGHT NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE...IMPACTING ABOUT HALF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY AS FORECASTING
THESE CLOUDS REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NE FLOW SHOULD BECOME SE-S 5-10 KT BY AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED
BY LATE DAY...SO WIND DIRECTION FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.
SCT TO BROKEN CLOUDS 5 TO 10 KFT ARE ANTICIPATED LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING AROUND OR JUST UNDER 3
KFT AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E/NE TO S/SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING AROUND OR JUST UNDER 3
KFT AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO E/SE MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING AROUND OR JUST UNDER 3 KFT AT
TIMES THIS MORNING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CEILING AROUND OR JUST UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES
THIS MORNING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE CEILING AROUND OR JUST UNDER 3 KFT
AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E/NE TO SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING AROUND OR JUST UNDER 3
KFT AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR.
.TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE SUB VFR IN STRATUS AND FOG.
.WED-FRI...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ARE ON A SLOW DECLINE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL A 8 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WHICH WILL ENABLE FOR THE FURTHER
DECREASES IN WAVE HEIGHT TO BE RATHER SLOW. WAVEWATCH IS ALSO NOW
RUNNING A LITTLE LOW IN TERMS OF THE WAVE HEIGHT AT BUOY 44025. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO THE DAY SO THE
SMALL CRAFT WAS CONVERTED TO ONE JUST FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. GUSTS WILL
BE LOWERING WITH CURRENT GUSTS ONLY UP TO 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. THE
TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE OCEAN WEST OF MORICHES INLET WILL HAVE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z WHILE EAST OF THERE...IT REMAINS UNTIL
16Z.
THEREAFTER WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...SUB SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERALLY BETWEEN 1/4 AND
1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO
ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.
DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
706 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY...REMAINING GENERALLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WEAKENS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE THEN FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOWERED CLOUDS FOR EASTERN HALF OF REGION AS WELL AS LOWERED
TEMPERATURES WITH VASTLY DIFFERENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BECAUSE OF
THE PATCHY CLOUD COVERAGE. OTHER THAN THAT...FORECAST MAINLY ON
TRACK.
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH DIURNAL WARMING THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND RURAL AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOCAL REGION. ALOFT...A RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WITH ITS BASE TO
OUR SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC LOW IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE LOSS
OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND INHERENTLY RESULTING IN THE FRONTOLYSIS.
THE ONLY EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE IN
THE 700 TO 850 MB COLUMN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST
INVERSION AROUND 900MB GOING INTO THIS MORNING IS SHOWN TO MIX OUT
BUT THE ONE AROUND 700 TO 800MB WILL REMAIN ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE
TO COLLECT HERE. THIS IS WHERE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUDS THERE WILL BE AND
THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE AND THIS IS ONE PARAMETER
THAT COULD FLUCTUATE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
THE NAM AND RUC BUFKITS INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING WHILE THE GFS BUFKITS DOES NOT MOISTEN THE 700 TO 850MB LAYER
BUT IS SLOWER TO MIX OUT THE LOWEST INVERSION AROUND 900MB WITH ITS
CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
THE RESULTING UNCERTAINTY WAS THE REASON WHY AN EQUAL BLEND OF MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE WAS CHOSEN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND DISSIPATING. ONLY EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THIS WITHIN THE 700-850MB LAYER FROM WEST
TO EAST.
THERE IS A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT.
HENCE...LOWS WERE PREFERRED WITH A 3/4 MET WARMER GUIDANCE TO 1/4
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
WILL KEEP FORECAST ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS
CONSIDERING THE LOWERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LACK OF WINDS TO
MIX DOWN. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT.
GOING WITH A WARMER DAY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
THERE IS MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS SOME PRETTY GOOD
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TOO WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 850MB
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 700MB. THE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY
MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HIGH TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET 2/3 AND COOLER 1/3 MAV
CONSIDERING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA BY WED EVE WITH A
TROUGH TRACKING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
FIRST TROUGH WHICH HAS A RIPPLE EFFECT ON LATER PERIODS. THE
GFS/GEFS MEAN IS FASTEST...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE EC AND
SREF...THEN THE NAM AND CMC AND LASTLY THE UKMET. HAVE STUCK WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN...NAM/SREF BLEND UNTIL THIS IS BETTER
RESOLVED. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CARVED
OUT THROUGH CENTRAL NOAM. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THU
NIGHT/FRI...WITH YET ANOTHER NEXT WEEKEND.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES ENTRENCHED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WILL
WEAKEN AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS
ARE VARYING WITH THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS FEATURE AND HOW MUCH IT
WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA ON WED. FOR NOW HAVE SCHC POPS ACROSS
THE EAST END ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS SYSTEMS MOISTURE MAY BE
INFUSED INTO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT. HAVE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING...CONSISTENT WITH A NAM/SREF BLEND AS STATED
ABOVE. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT WILL ALSO BE
TRANSLATED TO THE SFC. WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW PRES PASSING S OF LONG ISLAND THU NIGHT OR FRI. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT COURTESY OF HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO OUR S...BUT A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF COAST RIDES ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT MARCHING TOWARDS THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
DURING THE DAY AND 40S...AROUND 50 IN NYC...AT NIGHT NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE...IMPACTING ABOUT HALF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY AS FORECASTING
THESE CLOUDS REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING.
LIGHT E-NE FLOW SHOULD BECOME SE-S 5-10 KT BY AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHERE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED
BY LATE DAY...SO WIND DIRECTION FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY. SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.
SCT TO BROKEN CLOUDS 5 TO 10 KFT ARE ANTICIPATED LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E/NE TO SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E/NE TO S/SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E TO SE MAY BE OFF
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM E/NE TO SE MAY BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POSSIBLE CEILING UNDER 3 KFT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TONIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ARE ON A SLOW DECLINE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL A 8 SEC EASTERLY SWELL WHICH WILL ENABLE FOR THE FURTHER
DECREASES IN WAVE HEIGHT TO BE RATHER SLOW. WAVEWATCH IS ALSO NOW
RUNNING A LITTLE LOW IN TERMS OF THE WAVE HEIGHT AT BUOY 44025. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO THE DAY SO THE
SMALL CRAFT WAS CONVERTED TO ONE JUST FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. GUSTS WILL
BE LOWERING WITH CURRENT GUSTS ONLY UP TO 20 KT ON THE OCEAN. THE
TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE OCEAN WEST OF MORICHES INLET WILL HAVE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z WHILE EAST OF THERE...IT REMAINS UNTIL
16Z.
THEREAFTER WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE...SUB SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERALLY BETWEEN 1/4 AND
1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO
ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.
DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
652 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
Confidence on the specifics of when and where best coverage of
precipitation will be over the next 24 hours is not high, but the
overall setup is for a widespread wet event over much of the Central
Plains.
00Z upper jet structure showed southern branch from central Baja
into Kansas with northern branch south and east around the Great
Basin upper low then northeast into the Four Corners, and this will
push east through tonight with persistent diffluence over Kansas
resulting. Deep moisture will steadily increase with stronger mid
level flow initially leading to better isentropic lift there
(ongoing in central portions of the state) and then somewhat lower
as the day progresses and 850 mb winds increase to near 60 kt around
00Z. Elevated creeps up as well for an increasing thunder concern
pushing east with time. Have generally indicated the most likely wet
periods from mid morning through early evening from west to east,
close to the WRF-ARW and recent HRRR runs which seem to be handling
the overnight convection the best. They are also similar with
surface-based storms breaking out in the KHLC vicinity in the late
afternoon hours as the mid level dry slot works northeast and cold
front surges east. With plenty of shear, CAPE will be the main
limiting factor with this activity maintaining itself through north
central Kansas, but at least minor concern for severe hail and wind
potential exist in western areas. Cold front sweeps through
overnight with clearing and drying taking over. High temperature
details are also difficult with onset and duration of daytime precip
and continued late-day south winds coinciding with some potential
dry periods in the west possibly leading to max values around 0Z.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
Drier air will move into eastern Kansas in the wake of the frontal
boundary and upper level system on Tuesday. Surface high pressure
will build into eastern Kansas Tuesday night and Wednesday keeping
winds rather light and temperatures below normal. GFS and ECMWF move
an upper trough across the plains Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Forecast soundings show dry air in the low and mid levels will be
present keeping chances of any measurable precipitation to the south
of the CWA. Cannot rule out a few sprinkles south of I-35 though.
Models continue to offer differing solutions for Friday through the
weekend. The ECMWF has been inconsistent while the GFS has been more
consistent on a run to run basis. The ECMWF is much sharper and
further south with the mid level trough while the GFS maintains a ridge
in the eastern Pacific and northwest flow across the Plains with a
broad upper low over Ontario into the Ohio Valley through the
weekend. However the ECMWF brings another shortwave trough across
Kansas Saturday. Given the differences in the models and limited
moisture availability, will go with a dry forecast at this time
and will wait and see what later model runs provide. Highs will
mainly be in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
Radar trends not far off from short range models with convection
becoming more widespread near and upstream of the terminals. Only
made a few alterations to going forecast, delaying initial onset
of nearby TSRA but then going down to MVFR conditions in
especially low clouds a bit earlier. Cold front sweeps through
late in the forecast with VFR conditions returning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1030 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...HAVE SENT ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING, AS A BATCH OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN IS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO 40-50% IN CENTRAL MAINE AS THE HRRR AND
RUC/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF RAIN MAKING IN THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT STILL PLAGUE NORTHERN
MAINE, ALSO TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES, AS WELL.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BUT EXPECT
THE FRONT TO WEAK AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FOR POPS AND QPF HAVE
BLENDED THE NAM12 GFS40 ...SREF AND THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT GRIDS GENERATED WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND PASS OFF TO
THE E ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY W/INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE DAY.
AOA NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY W/SUN AND CLOUDS.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS
TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND THE COAST WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT W/THIS
SETUP AS NOW IS THE CANADIAN GLOBAL. THEREFORE, CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND
COAST(RAISED TO 60%) AS A DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
APCHG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING(700 MBS) TO SUPPORT THE RAMP UP IN THE PRECIP
CHANCES. NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY GET AWAY RAIN FREE
UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THIS REGION WILL BE BETWEEN THE 2
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE FCST TO BE MORE IN LINE
W/NORMAL READINGS FOR MID OCTOBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE THE PRECIP CHANCES UP TO 60-70%
W/STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE AND GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING. THE DECISION WAS
TO KEEP THE WX ELEMENT AS RAIN FOR THIS FCST CYCLE FOLLOWING THE
DAYCREW`S LEAD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW DECENT
LLVL WARMING TAKING HOLD FOR THIS TIMEFRAME W/SOME DECENT UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS MORE PRONOUNCED W/THIS
SETUP THAN THE 00Z GFS. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL TO SOME EXTENT INDICATED
THIS AS WELL. THE DRAWBACK IS TWO FOLD. ONE IS THAT THE LLVLS WILL
BE STABLE DUE TO A SSE FLOW AND TWO, THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS,
HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL(SUCH AS SBCAPE AND
TOTAL TOTALS) THAT THEY WERE SHOWING 24 HR AGO. THEREFORE, DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT FOR THIS CYCLE AND WOULD LIKE TO
SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE EVENT.
THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING SLATED FOR FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
ACTUALLY NEAR NORMAL. THIS COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND W/ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FCST TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR IN FOG THIS MORNING THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE FCST
TO DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLY
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY W/THE FROPA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 TO GENERATE SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS.
FOR WAVES: WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
EARLY TODAY WITH PRIMARY SEAS CONSISTING OF SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD
WAVES AROUND 2 FEET/8 SECONDS. WAVE MODEL SPECTRA DEPICTING THIS
GROUP WELL ALTHOUGH GROUP WAVE HEIGHTS ARE A LITTLE LOW ON 0000Z
WAVE WATCH RUN. LATER TODAY SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE (1-2 FEET/3-4
SECONDS) COMBINES WITH SWELL AND PERSISTS INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL PICK IN ADVANCE
OF THE APCHG FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AND DECIDED TO BRING
SUSTAINED WINDS TO 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS AREA FCST TO CLIMB TO 5
FT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SWELL COULD REACH 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
BY LATER WEDNESDAY IN THAT SWELL. ATTM, KEPT WAVE HEIGHTS AT 5 FT
AND THIS SURGE LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED. STILL TIME TO ASSESS THIS
W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
912 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
910 AM UDATE...FOG IS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING, THOUGH
WE ARE STILL SOCKED IN HERE IN CARIBOU AND A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DENSE FOG
HAS LIFTED, SO ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS UPDATE IS THE SHOWERS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC/RAP, INDICATE THAT THE BATCH OF
RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL
MOVE NEARLY DIRECTLY EAST INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST
MAINE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS ACCORDINGLY,
INTRODUCING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CAREFULLY, AS THESE RAIN CHANCES MAY HAVE TO
BE EXTENDED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER UPDATES. REGARDLESS, DON`T
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO FALL IN MOST SPOTS,
THOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE NORTH MAINE WOODS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS BUT EXPECT
THE FRONT TO WEAK AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FOR POPS AND QPF HAVE
BLENDED THE NAM12 GFS40 ...SREF AND THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT GRIDS GENERATED WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND PASS OFF TO
THE E ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY W/INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE DAY.
AOA NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY W/SUN AND CLOUDS.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS
TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND THE COAST WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT W/THIS
SETUP AS NOW IS THE CANADIAN GLOBAL. THEREFORE, CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND
COAST(RAISED TO 60%) AS A DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
APCHG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING(700 MBS) TO SUPPORT THE RAMP UP IN THE PRECIP
CHANCES. NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS COULD ACTUALLY GET AWAY RAIN FREE
UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THIS REGION WILL BE BETWEEN THE 2
FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE FCST TO BE MORE IN LINE
W/NORMAL READINGS FOR MID OCTOBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE THE PRECIP CHANCES UP TO 60-70%
W/STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE AND GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING. THE DECISION WAS
TO KEEP THE WX ELEMENT AS RAIN FOR THIS FCST CYCLE FOLLOWING THE
DAYCREW`S LEAD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW DECENT
LLVL WARMING TAKING HOLD FOR THIS TIMEFRAME W/SOME DECENT UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS MORE PRONOUNCED W/THIS
SETUP THAN THE 00Z GFS. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL TO SOME EXTENT INDICATED
THIS AS WELL. THE DRAWBACK IS TWO FOLD. ONE IS THAT THE LLVLS WILL
BE STABLE DUE TO A SSE FLOW AND TWO, THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS,
HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL(SUCH AS SBCAPE AND
TOTAL TOTALS) THAT THEY WERE SHOWING 24 HR AGO. THEREFORE, DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT FOR THIS CYCLE AND WOULD LIKE TO
SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE EVENT.
THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING SLATED FOR FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
ACTUALLY NEAR NORMAL. THIS COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND W/ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FCST TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR IN FOG THIS MORNING THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE FCST
TO DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLY
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY W/THE FROPA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 TO GENERATE SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS.
FOR WAVES: WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
EARLY TODAY WITH PRIMARY SEAS CONSISTING OF SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD
WAVES AROUND 2 FEET/8 SECONDS. WAVE MODEL SPECTRA DEPICTING THIS
GROUP WELL ALTHOUGH GROUP WAVE HEIGHTS ARE A LITTLE LOW ON 0000Z
WAVE WATCH RUN. LATER TODAY SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE (1-2 FEET/3-4
SECONDS) COMBINES WITH SWELL AND PERSISTS INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL PICK IN ADVANCE
OF THE APCHG FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AND DECIDED TO BRING
SUSTAINED WINDS TO 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS AREA FCST TO CLIMB TO 5
FT W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SWELL COULD REACH 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
BY LATER WEDNESDAY IN THAT SWELL. ATTM, KEPT WAVE HEIGHTS AT 5 FT
AND THIS SURGE LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED. STILL TIME TO ASSESS THIS
W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
733 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NE ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH A TROF EXTENDING SW INTO THE
ROCKIES WHERE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER UT/CO. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT LIFTS NE. BTWN THE SYSTEMS OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE
ROCKIES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID
20S TO LWR 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF UPPER MI. HERE AT NWS
MQT...THE TEMP SO FAR AS OF 09Z HAS FALLEN TO 30F...MAKING THIS THE
FIRST NIGHT THIS AUTUMN WITH A MIN TEMP AT OR BLO FREEZING. THIS
TIES 1997 FOR THE LATEST OCCURRENCE OF THE FIRST MIN TEMP AT OR BLO
FREEZING IN AUTUMN.
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE E TODAY WHILE SHORTWAVE
OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTS NE INTO THE WRN PLAINS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL W AND SW OF HERE TODAY. HOWEVER...RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SRN MANITOBA
WILL BRING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS ALREADY
AIDING SOME BANDS OF -SHRA ACROSS ND INTO NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING
PER RADAR IMAGERY THOUGH NOT ALL OF IT IS REACHING THE GROUND. THRU
LATE AFTN...PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET OVER NRN ONTARIO/SRN MANITOBA
WILL LEAD TO BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINING W OF THE FCST AREA AS
DOES ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR
MASS OVER THE AREA (SIMILAR TO 00Z KINL SOUNDING) WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS
TO THE W OVER MN. THUS...PLAN TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS UPPER
MI TODAY...BUT WILL BRING CHC POPS INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MID/LATE
AFTN AS ERN FRINGE OF PCPN AREA MAY MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO DRIER
AIR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY FROM W TO E AS CLOUDS SPREAD DOWNWIND FROM THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AREA TO THE W. GUIDANCE IS WELL
CLUSTERED ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S.
AS UPPER JET TO THE N LIFTS SLIGHTLY N AND E...THERE SHOULD BE AN
AREA OF -SHRA THAT SHIFTS ACROSS WRN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...PROBABLY TO THE N OF UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS WILL LIFT TO SE SD/SW MN/NW IA BY 12Z TUE WITH
HEALTHY FORCING NOTED BY DEEP LAYER QVECTORS SPREADING TOWARD UPPER
MI LATE. COMBINED WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON THE 300K SFC...EXPECT SHRA TO ADVANCE NE
INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
MODELS ARE IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT
LACK AGREEMENT ON SPECIFIC DETAILS /ESPECIALLY FOR TUE-WED/ THAT
LEADS TO A MORE UNCERTAIN FORECAST.
A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER FAR SW MN AT 12Z
TUE...WITH WAA DRIVEN PRECIP OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CWA THROUGH TUE
MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OR S OF THE CWA /DEPENDING OF
MODEL SOLUTION/ THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT AS A
TROWAL WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A
BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AND THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THE 00Z/14 GFS AND 00Z/14 NAM ARE FASTER AND
FARTHER N WITH THE TIMING/TRACK...WHICH MOVES THE TROWAL AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN E FASTER ON WED. THE 12Z/13 GEM AND 12Z/13 ECMWF ARE
SLOWER...BUT STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK. IF THE MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...EVEN THOUGH IT IS SLOWER...RAIN
WILL NOT LAST AS LONG ON WED AS EVEN THE GFS/NAM ARE SAYING SINCE
THE TROWAL WOULD BE S/SE OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER AND
FARTHER N SOLUTION OF THE GEM WOULD RESULT IN THE LONGEST LASTING
RAIN AS THE TROWAL STAYS OVER THE CWA INTO EARLY WED NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN MODEL TRENDS IN
THAT DIRECTION. WILL ALSO KEEP POPS HIGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS
CONFIDENCE OFF AREA WIDE RAIN IS GOOD AT THAT TIME.
FOR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...MODELS GIVE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
TROUGHING AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. AFTER THAT...A DEEP UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE S FROM HUDSON BAY CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN ONTARIO THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY COLD AIRMASS
OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THU...BUT PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN ALONG THE FRONT AS
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. WILL NOT GO HIGHER THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THU. BY 00Z SAT...850MB TEMPS COOL TO AROUND
-2C...SO EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP ALONG A SECONDARY AND STRONGER
COLD FRONT ON FRI GIVEN LAKE SFC TEMPS OF 9C TO 13C. MODELS THEN
SHOW 850MB TEMPS DECREASING TO -5C TO -7C FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVE THROUGH. WITH THESE
COLDER TEMPS...EXPECT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WITH INCREASES IN
INTENSITY WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM ANY CONTRIBUTING SYNOPTIC ENERGY. AS
FOR PRECIP TYPE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE ALL SNOW AT NIGHT/MORNING
WHEN TEMPS ARE COOLEST FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...AND MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
SO SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE WARMER DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY AIR MASS LINGERS DESPITE EXITING HIGH PRES. HOWEVER...AS LOW
PRES SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE WRN PLAINS MOVES NE...SHRA WILL
SPREAD NE AND WILL LIKELY REACH KIWD LATE TONIGHT. WITH AN E TO SE
DOWNSLOPE WIND...CONDITIONS SHOULDN`T FALL BLO VFR UNTIL SEVERAL HRS
AFTER PCPN BEGINS. SHOWERS AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL 3 TERMINALS BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD DURING THE DAY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT THRU MID AFTN. LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM W TO E AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS E AND LOW PRES LIFTS NE THRU THE PLAINS. BY TUE AFTN...E
TO NE WINDS WILL BE INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE LOW MOVES ENE JUST TO THE S OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTN THRU
WED MORNING...THESE STRONGER WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE
WILL SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE WINDS
BACK NORTHERLY. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF GALES TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E WED AFTN/NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER E AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE AOB 20KT THU/FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
622 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. NUMEROUS AVIATION
CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD. THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE WET DAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 TO 15
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT ALL TAF
SITES...BECOMING WEST IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS
EVENTUALLY BECOMING MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR AT KOFK. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE RAIN TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND DETERMINING RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AT 08Z...SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH PARTS
OF NEBRASKA...THEN EXTENDED SOUTHWEST THROUGH COLORADO AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER UTAH PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WAS AN IMPRESSIVE JET MAX OF AROUND 145
KNOTS AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL ANALYSIS NEAR THE COLORADO-
NEW MEXICO BORDER. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED WITHIN
THIS PRECIPITATION AREA. THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW WAS MAXIMIZED FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE 3 HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS WERE 2-3MB.
BASED ON THE 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT RISES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE EXPECTED SCENARIO IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE
FROM UTAH INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
PIVOT THE JET AXIS TO A MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION...POSITIONING IT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO-SOUTHERN KANSAS. EXPECT STRONG UPWARD
FORCING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF: THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAX...STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM CONVEYER BELT REGION...AND
CONTINUED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A WELL-DEFINED EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE PATTERN
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TONIGHT.
IN THESE SCENARIOS WE CAN PLAN ON SOMEWHAT HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE
LOW DURING THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING...THEN THE DRY SLOT
PUSHING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEN AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WITH
CLOSER TO 0.5 INCH NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER...AND 1-1.5 INCHES NEAR
I-80. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE MODEL RAINFALL.
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF AROUND 60 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN 40-45
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE QUITE STRONG AND COULD MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
AREAS GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF NORFOLK.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER
TUESDAY THAN TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...CLOUDS...AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY WITH COOL/QUIET WEATHER. THE
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA SETTLES INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN US...AND THIS KEEPS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME INTO NEXT WEEK.
NIETFELD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
607 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS WITH QUITE HIGH MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PLENTY OF FORECAST
CHALLENGES RANGING FROM TRYING TO REFINE SHORT-TERM
POPS...ASSESSING THE MAGNITUDE OF A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...DETERMINING THE EFFECTS OF
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIP ON HIGH TEMPS...AND ALSO TRYING TO
DETERMINE HOW CLOSE ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA MAY COME TO AT
LEAST BRIEFLY FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW.
08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A GRADUALLY-TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 1031 MILLIBAR HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...AND A 1006 LOW OVER NORTHEAST CO. AS A
RESULT...SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AT THIS
HOUR ARE AVERAGING AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA HIGHLIGHT A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PLOWING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH ITS 500MB VORT MAX CURRENTLY
SWINGING OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A 100+KT
JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CO...AND FARTHER DOWN A
40-50KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EVIDENT AT 850MB...RIGHT OVER
THE HEART OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NEB AND KS. MUCH AS EXPECTED FOR DAYS
NOW...STOUT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER HAS RESULTED IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. OF
COURSE...ITS NOT RAINING EVERYWHERE AT ONCE...AND EARLIER ON MOST
OF THE PRECIP WAS FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS THE MAIN FOCUS HAS TRANSITIONED TO ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST IN AT LEAST A SHORT
TERM LULL. ALTHOUGH ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PRODUCED/COULD PRODUCE VERY SMALL
HAIL...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MUCAPE IN THE
850-700MB LAYER ONLY AVERAGING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG PER LATEST RAP-
BASED MESOANALYSIS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...TEMPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER WHAT HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD COVER AND SLOWLY-INCREASING DEWPOINTS...WITH MOST ALL PLACES
CURRENTLY SOMEWHERE IN THE 50S.
FOCUSING ON THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THROUGH 00Z/7PM...TOOK A BEST
STAB AT 3-HOURLY POP TRENDS...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
ENTIRE CWA IS SPORTING AN 80-90 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
THROUGH SUNSET...ITS JUST A MATTER OF WHEN IT FALLS AND HOW MUCH
FALLS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE PRIMARY 500MB VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE NEB PANHANDLE
BY MID-DAY AS IT DEEPENS AND SWINGS NORTHEAST IN A NEGATIVELY
TILTED FASHION...AND THEN REACHING FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY AROUND
SUNSET. IN SUIT...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED IN
NORTHEAST CO IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL...BUT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...MEANING THAT IT GENERALLY
SKIRTS JUST ALONG THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY SUNSET WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 1003MB. MEANWHILE...A STOUT 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY...WHICH IN
TANDEM WITH CONTINUED LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD
PROMOTE RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ITS YET
TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAINLY STAYS
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY
HAPPENING...OR EVENTUALLY ALSO DEVELOPS OVER...OR MOVES INTO WESTERN
AREAS AS WELL. MODELS VARY...WITH SOME ENDING THE LULL OVER THE
WEST BY MID-MORNING...WHILE OTHERS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON EASTERN AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH MID-DAY. AT ANY
RATE...WOULD BE QUITE SURPRISED IF ANY OF THE CWA GOT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN...AS MANY EASTERN AREAS COULD
EASILY RECEIVE 0.50-0.75 INCH OR MORE THROUGH SUNSET. TURNING TO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HAS ALSO BEEN ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS
NOW WE ARE FACING A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AS SPC HAS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN A DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION HERE IS...HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE JUST
WEST OF...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INVADING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE INVADING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE COMBO...TO PROMOTE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SEVERE STORMS. FOLLOWING THE LEAD
OF THE LATEST RAP...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
PRECIP THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIKELY NOTHING MORE
THAN A HIT AND MISS THREAT OF SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO AROUND
DIME SIZE. HOWEVER...BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THE RAP BRINGS A
NARROW NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CAPE POTENTIALLY INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.
AS A RESULT...AND AS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW AND ALSO THE LATEST HRRR...A LINE OF FAST
MOVING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD SWEEP FROM WEST-
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MAINLY BETWEEN 4PM-9PM...BUT LIKELY
GRADUALLY LOSING STEAM AS IT DOES SO. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE STRONG...THUS MEANING THAT A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT IS NON-
ZERO...EXPECT SYNOPTIC FORCING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE A
LINEAR MODE FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WINDS
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 60 MPH...AND MAYBE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE. ALTHOUGH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WILL BE FOCUSING THE LOCAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK MAINLY ON THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...OR
ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF A LOUP CITY-BELOIT LINE WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE IT DROPS OFF FARTHER EAST AS NIGHT
FALLS. TURNING BRIEFLY TO OTHER ELEMENTS TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AND OBVIOUSLY VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
PRECIP IS FALLING AND WHETHER ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT BASED ON A VARIED BLEND OF SHORT TERM
MODELS/GUIDANCE HAVE A RANGE FROM ONLY MID-UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID-
UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS A BIT COOLER THAN A STRAIGHT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE BLEND AND COUNTS ON LOW CLOUDS HOLDING FIRM ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. WIND-WISE TODAY...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY QUITE BREEZY
WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...NOT
EXPECTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO BREACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH.
TURNING TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD/7PM-7AM/...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON HOW
QUICKLY CONVECTION VACATES THE AREA...AND HOW STRONG WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME. ON THE BIG PICTURE...THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL
ONLY SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEB TO NEAR SIOUX
FALLS...WHILE THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH AND
MAINTAINS A SIMILAR CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 1003MB. IN THE STOUT
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...AND IN AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MAY BE OVERALL-WINDIER TONIGHT THAN THEY ARE DURING THE
DAY TODAY...EXCEPT THIS TIME OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
QUICKLY PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS SLATED TO CRUISE ACROSS THE
CWA GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-11PM. ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE UNDER-DOING WIND
SPEEDS A BIT...AT LEAST FOR NOW EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO ONLY
AVERAGE IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH...AND THUS
FALLING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. NEIGHBORING
OFFICES TO THE WEST HAVE ISSUED WIND HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT JUST DON/T SEE THE LOCAL AREA
BEING QUITE WINDY ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH OF
COURSE LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. OTHERWISE...IN
TERMS OF PRECIP TRENDS...HAVE SLIGHTLY SPED UP THE DEPARTURE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH MUCH OF THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA LIKELY
DRIED OUT BY AROUND SUNSET...WHILE LIKELY POPS CONTINUE IN EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH 02Z/9PM BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS COULD CARRY AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT UNTIL THEY DEPART EASTERN AREAS...BUT WOULD EXPECT
THE MAIN THREAT TO DIMINISH POST-SUNSET. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP WILL VACATE THE AREA THIS EVENING...DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
BARELY BRUSHING THE CWA ON THE SOUTH-END OF THE WRAP-AROUND
SHIELD. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
NEB HOWEVER. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH MOST OF
THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 39-42 RANGE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA MAY BE HELD UP A BIT BY
PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS WRAPPING BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THOSE
VENTURING OUT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WILL DEFINITELY NOTICE A
BITE TO THE AIR...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH FROST/FREEZE CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
BUSY PATTERN STARTING OUT TUESDAY MORNING AS 500MB CLOSED LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SDAK/MN BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM STACKED AS
SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE JUST A TAD SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW
POSITION. IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER LOW...TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AS NOTED ABOVE...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY
AS WE SIT IN BETWEEN A WOUND UP SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER
AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A 20MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NEBRASKA. SHOULD SEE
SUSTAINED 25 MPH WINDS AT LEAST AND MAY BE APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM MID MORNING
TO MID AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE. IF WE
DO GET ANY IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN ONE OR TWO
HUNDREDTHS.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND ALSO EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT...SO WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30...MUCH OF THE CWA STANDS A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING FROST WED MORNING.
ON THURSDAY ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. FRIDAY IS A
LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS A DEEP UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE U.S. THE EC MODELS BRINGS DOWN MUCH COLDER
AIR THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. IT ALSO BRINGS A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND GENERATES SOME MODERATE
QPF WITH IT. THE GFS NOT SHOWING THIS AND THE GEM IS ALSO
UNDERPLAYING THIS FEATURE. CHECKING THE ALL BLEND POPS...THEY ARE
ONLY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. BACK TO
THE EC...IF ONE WERE TO ONLY LOOK AT 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...THERE
MAY BE CAUSE FOR CONCERN AS THE EC IS SHOWING THICKNESSES CONDUCIVE
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE EC SHOWS SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY MORNING.
ALSO THE GROUND SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM SINCE HIGHS ON WED AND
THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 60. SO IF THE EC DOES VERIFY WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS TO BE MORE OF A
COLD RAIN. OF COURSE THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
A FAIRLY ACTIVE 24 HOURS OF WEATHER CONTINUES AT KGRI...WITH
VARIOUS CONCERNS INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...SEVERAL HOURS OF
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS WITH IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...GOOD
CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...AND FINALLY A
PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. GOING
ROUGHLY IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER WITH THESE ISSUES...HAVE EXTENDED A
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 18Z...AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET STREAM WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 30-40KT WIND VECTOR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1800 FT AGL...THANKS TO
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER AVERAGING AROUND 50KT FROM THE
SOUTH. SECONDLY...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION/LIFT SHOULD KEEP MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND ALL DAY INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT OUT ANY IFR
CEILING FOR NOW...BUT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THROUGH AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...AND AM ADVERTISING
EITHER VCSH/VCTS OR OUTRIGHT PREVAILING -SHRA THROUGH THE FIRST 15
HOURS OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY RISK OF PRECIP ENDS THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20KT
WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST 26KT THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS...BEFORE AN ABRUPT SWITCH TO WESTERLY WINDS OCCURS AROUND
SUNSET AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH GUST POTENTIAL CONTINUING
TO AT LEAST 26KT WELL INTO THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO RAISE CEILING BACK
INTO LOW-END VFR TERRITORY BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND SKIES COULD
OUTRIGHT CLEAR FOR A TIME...VARYING DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS
COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
639 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR OHIO RIVER TODAY. FRONT WASHES OUT
TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POST
FRONTAL DISTURBANCE RACES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WASHED OUT/STALLED SURFACE FRONT...REALLY MORE A WEAK PRESSURE
TROUGH AT THIS POINT...RUNS FROM JUST WEST OF CKB TO JUST EAST OF
HTS. DO HAVE SOME SOME MORE ENHANCED ECHOS SHOWING UP ALONG OR JUST
WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND ALSO IN NORTH CENTRAL WV. UPPED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THESE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. RAP SHOWS
AN ELONGATED VORT LOBE MOVING ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING...SO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TRANSITIONING
MORE TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL STRUGGLES TO CLEAR OUT...SO THINK PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
TODAY...EXCEPT VERY WESTERN CWA WHERE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ALREADY DRIFTING IN. VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED POPS SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT OF NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WITH A
PRECIP FREE FORECAST BY LATE TONIGHT. COOLED HIGHS JUST A BIT TODAY
WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND STAYED NEAR TO JUST ABOVE THE WARMER
MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A VERY STRANGE PATTERN OF LATE...WE FINALLY GET THE ATMOSPHERE
MOVING AGAIN DURING THIS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
SO SEVERAL FEATURES TO TIME.
DRIER AIR AT 925 TO 850 MBS THAT IS OFF THE JERSEY COAST THIS
PREDAWN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SNEAK BACK WSW AND REACH OUR MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY. SO EXPECTING LESS CLOUDS THERE DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO SAY OUR OHIO COUNTIES. WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE TUESDAY.
WITH THE 700 MB FLOW INCREASING IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WAS JUST A BIT FASTER BRINGING BACK SOME CHANCE POPS FOR
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST. ALSO...KEPT
TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN MOST MOS GUIDANCE THERE.
INITIAL TIMING OF FRONT IS THROUGH OUR OHIO RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES BY
MIDDAY AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES BY SUNSET. SO...THE ONLY
CHANGE WORTH MENTIONING WAS A BIT FASTER LOWERING POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST. LEFT OUR FRONTAL POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE...WAS NOT IMPRESSED
ENOUGH TO RAISE TO CATEGORICAL. WITH THAT TIMING...LOWERED
DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY.
WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 6 TO 8C OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HELD ONTO SOME POPS OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...AS WE
SQUEEZE OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. YET...FURTHER WEST...AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING AS EVEN THE 850 MOISTURE THINS OUT.
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF
HAVE COME AROUND TO WHAT THE GFS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING PREVIOUSLY.
THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACES THROUGH HERE THURSDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE INCREASES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO HELD
THURSDAY MORNING DRIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THINK CLEARING WILL DEVELOP IN OUR WESTERN LOWLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR DAWN FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND SPILLING INTO A FEW RURAL AREAS OF
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE SOME 35 TO 40 DEG TEMPERATURES
THERE...WILL MENTION/ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN A FEW SPOTS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT THINK IT
WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE HAVING DISAGREEMENTS ON HANDLING A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY IN THE SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN. ALL AGREE THAT A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
EXIT EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE SHOWERS WITH IT. SOME COOLER
AND DRIER AIR DOES FLOW IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BIG QUESTION BECOMES WHAT HAPPENS TO A CHUNK OF ENERGY LEFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS IT GETS QUICKLY EJECTED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA. WILL GO WITH
PERSISTENCE IN OUR FORECAST AND ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS...USING
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AVAILABLE...WITH THIS SHORT WAVE LIFTING
UP FAR ENOUGH WEST TO DRIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE A WEAK AND RATHER MOISTURE LIMITED
COOL FRONT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE FRIDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT FREEZE/FROST OUTSIDE THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA IS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT OBS SHOW IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. AFTER
SUNRISE WILL START TO SEE DECK SLOWLY BEGIN LIFTING...HOWEVER
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. WILL SEE
CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS DRIFTING EAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. LOW ENOUGH
POPS TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT...SO HIT THE FOG PRETTY HARD FOR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SHOULD CLOUDS CLEAR UP FARTHER WEST...COULD GET
FOG ACROSS LOWLANDS TOO...HOWEVER THINK ENOUGH CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND AND REDUCE CHANCES OF THAT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG CAT CHANGES ACROSS CWA MAY
VARY. DENSITY AND TIMING OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L H H H M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1103 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013
.UPDATE...BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD MOVED THROUGH
GREELEY AND FORT COLLINS AND WILL PUSH ACROSS MOST OF DENVER METRO
BY NOON AND PALMER DIVIDE AROUND 1 PM. HAVE MADE FURTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO PUSH STORMS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 1 PM
AND THEN HAVE SCATTERED SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND FOOTHILLS.
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...OROGRAPHICS AND GOOD UPSTREAM MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER 1-3
INCHES ACCUMULATION. EXISTING HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD AS NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN 2-7 INCHES...AND GENERALLY 1-3 IN
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT OVERALL HAD TO INCREASE POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND DECENT OROGRAPHIC FLOW
IN PLACE AS WINDS GO NORTHWESTERLY.
&&
.AVIATION...FRONT WILL REACH KDEN AND KBJC AROUND 1720Z-1730Z AND
THEN KAPA ABOUT 1830Z. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25-28KTS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SHOWER OUTFLOWS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SO
FEEL TEMPO -SHRA LOOKS GOOD THIS AFTERNOON. MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ENDING THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY SNOWFALL.
BIGGER CONCERN IS NOW SHIFTING TO POTENTIAL OF LOW STRATUS
CEILINGS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND VERY LOW T/TD SPREADS IN WYOMING. AS LONG AS
UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS IN PLACE...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE LOWER CEILINGS
THAN EXISTING FORECAST SO LOWERING THEM IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013/
UPDATE...CONVECTION INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR HIGHER POPS THIS
MORNING AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...FOG IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING REPLACED BY A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THESE WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH 14Z-16Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS WITH FRONT. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 35
KTS WITH THOSE SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
16Z BUT LESS WIND WITH THOSE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND CLOSE OFF
OVER THE NEBRASKA PAN HANDLE AROUND 18Z. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING DRY AIR TO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING...THE DRY SLOT.
A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE INTO NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING. AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS
COLORADO. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE
NAM...RAP AND HRRR ARE ALL MUCH LATER SHOWING THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. NORMALLY THE QUICKER SOLUTION OF
THE GFS/ECMWF PANS OUT. APPEARS THE GFS IS HANDLING THE SURFACE
PATTERN BETTER AND EXPECT ITS FORECAST TO BE BETTER.
FOR THE FRONT RANGE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH AND UPSLOPE DEVELOPS FOR SHOWERS TO FORM. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. BETTER OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 00Z. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE...APPEARS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNRISE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT TODAY SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL HELP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. THIS COMBINED WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...JUST
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
SOME WEAK SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AFTER SUNSET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FALLING BELOW FREEZING.
LONG TERM...A CHILLY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS IS STILL INDICATED OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING ON TUESDAY BENEATH A WESTERN EXTENSION
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED EITHER OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
OR WESTERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A 1030MB
SFC HIGH IN THE COLDEST AIR COVERING NORTHERN WYOMING AND NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY SFC-700 MB FLOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COLORADO.
MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LOW FORMING OVER EASTERN UTAH AROUND
MIDDAY...AND THEN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN COMBINATION WITH
PRESSURE RISES IN ADVANCE OF THE SOUTHWARD TREKING SFC HIGH IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A RESULT COULD SEE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE FRONT RANGE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...AND ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. OVERNIGHT THIS SECONDARY UPPER LOW AND SFC HIGH
MIGRATE SOUTH AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS...RESULTING IN AN END TO
PRECIP AROUND HERE. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE THE
COOLEST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGHS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NOT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 40S.
FOR REST OF THE WEEK...FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO A NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT BASIN AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE ECMWF SHOWS A COLD FRONT RACING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE EC SHOWS THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH NERN
COLORADO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE GFS DOESN/T SHOW IT ARRIVING
UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS ADDS MORE UNCERTAINTY TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FCST FOR THAT DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ECMWF
DRIVES THIS SYSTEM STRAIGHT SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN AMPLE CLOUD
COVER...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIP...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE MTNS AND PLAINS. THE
CANADIAN GEM INDICATES A NEARLY SIMILAR PATTERN DEVELOPING...BUT NOT
AS COLD OR AS WET. WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM JUST GLANCING
THE AREA BRINGING ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. SINCE THIS
IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL APPLY A BLEND OF THESE MODELS TO
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN WEST THEN TO NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND 16Z CAUSING WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4000 TO 8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH CEILING OF 2000 TO 5000
FEET POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE CEILINGS COULD FALL BELOW 2000
FEET BY 12Z TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS. SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ031-
033.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
308 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
THIS EVENING-TNGT: MOST OF THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD AND LINE OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF KHYS. WITH WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. BUT EXPECT
RENEWED CONVECTION IN CEN KS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CONVECTION OVER NW KS MOVES SLOWLY E-SE AS THE LATE AFTN
CONTINUES.
LATEST RAP OUTPUT SHOWS SFC BASED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE
LACKING...ONLY AROUND 1800 J/KG FOR AREAS JUST ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE
MAIN DRY LINE/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT.
BUT BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO MAKE UP FOR THIS...WITH IMPRESSIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 50-70KTS. SO COULD SEE A LOW TOPPED LINE CONVECTION
MOVE INTO CEN KS FOR THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY MAKE UP FOR LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES
FOR AT LEAST A SMALL SEVERE EVENT IN CEN KS WITH STRONG STORMS MORE
LIKELY. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT (GIVEN BY
SPC) THIS FAR SOUTH...AS NOT A CLASSIC COLD CORE SETUP...GIVEN
VERTICAL STRETCHING WILL BE LIMITED...UNLESS CLOUDS CAN THIN ENOUGH
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT EXPECTED ACROSS CEN
KS. SO THINK A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR ANY KIND
OF TORNADO/FUNNEL...PROBABLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NRN KS.
MORE OF A LOW TOPPED LINE WITH QUARTER HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO MAKE PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT...WITH
A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA.
ALSO THINK THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE WEST
OF I-135 GIVEN THE TIMING.
TUE-THU: EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY ON TUE...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUE-THU WILL BE THE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. THIS COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY OVER CEN KS FOR WED MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
WILL SEE ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED INTO WED EVE. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION....SO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS IT COMES ACROSS.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME VERY LOW POPS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS...BUT GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A SPRINKLE
CHANCE FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN KS GIVEN THE DRY LOW LAYERS.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS KS FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRI. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF TRYS TO BRING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS KS BY
FRI...AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE
BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY CONFINED TO EXTREME SRN KS OR OK. COULD
SEE SOME 850-700H MOISTURE RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY FOR A
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
KS. SO FOR CONSENSUS SAKE...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THIS CHANCE.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR WEEKEND AS SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WARMER TEMPS SHUNTED FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE OFF AND ON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
LOW CEILINGS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE UPDATED TO DROP ALL CEILINGS TO IFR...EITHER IN A
PREVAILING GROUP OR IN A TEMPO. EXPECTING IFR TO LOW MVFR TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING A LINE OF
CONVECTION TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH IT AND HAVE TIMED CURRENT
TAFS FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM. THIS
CONVECTIVE LINE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO LINGER AT ANY ONE PLACE VERY
LONG BEFORE IT MOVES ON TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 47 62 39 61 / 60 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 45 60 38 61 / 60 10 10 10
NEWTON 46 60 37 59 / 60 10 10 10
ELDORADO 48 62 39 60 / 60 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 49 64 41 61 / 60 10 10 10
RUSSELL 40 58 34 58 / 70 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 40 59 33 59 / 70 0 0 10
SALINA 44 60 36 61 / 70 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 45 60 36 60 / 70 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 52 64 43 60 / 80 20 10 20
CHANUTE 51 63 42 60 / 70 10 10 10
IOLA 50 63 42 59 / 70 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 52 64 42 60 / 80 20 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1242 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A EASTWARD MOVEMENT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WE SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE DURING THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
TODAY. STRONG CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DYNAMICS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THIS COLD FRONT WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY STRONG
SHEAR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING BOOSTING THE INSTABILITY...MAINLY
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135. THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
FOR TUE/WED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COOL AIRMASS
SETTLES OVER KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS
DRY...PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN
KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
DEEP UPPER TROUGHING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN
SO WILL ONLY CARRY SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
JAKUB
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE OFF AND ON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
LOW CEILINGS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE UPDATED TO DROP ALL CEILINGS TO IFR...EITHER IN A
PREVAILING GROUP OR IN A TEMPO. EXPECTING IFR TO LOW MVFR TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING A LINE OF
CONVECTION TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH IT AND HAVE TIMED CURRENT
TAFS FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM. THIS
CONVECTIVE LINE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO LINGER AT ANY ONE PLACE VERY
LONG BEFORE IT MOVES ON TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 68 47 63 40 / 80 60 10 10
HUTCHINSON 68 45 61 39 / 90 60 10 10
NEWTON 66 46 62 39 / 80 60 10 10
ELDORADO 66 48 63 40 / 80 60 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 68 49 65 41 / 100 60 10 10
RUSSELL 70 40 58 35 / 100 70 0 0
GREAT BEND 69 40 59 37 / 100 70 0 0
SALINA 68 44 60 38 / 90 70 10 10
MCPHERSON 67 45 60 39 / 100 70 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 69 52 65 44 / 100 70 20 10
CHANUTE 68 51 64 42 / 100 70 10 10
IOLA 68 50 63 42 / 100 70 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 68 52 64 43 / 100 70 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
...Update to short term and aviation forecasts...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
Weak elevated instability is in place across much of the area
early this afternoon with substantial forcing for ascent
providing several areas of showers and thunderstorms across
Kansas. This will lead to periods of rain and thunder this
afternoon and evening with the entire area likely to see rain at
some point as well as dry periods. Morning model guidance and
observations remain consistent in the development of an area of
surface based instability 500 to 1500 J/kg developing in western
and central KS this afternoon immediately in advance of the
incoming cold front/dryline. This instability will rapidly
decrease between 00Z and 03Z, with less than 200 J/kg in advance
of the front after 03Z. Deep layer wind shear is strong, and low
level shear is rather impressive as well, but not sure if the
minimal instability in the local area will allow the wind shear
to be fully utilized.
It seems that 2 or more lines of convection may steadily move
through the narrow warm sector west of the area this afternoon,
but will likely congeal into a single line as it approaches the
forecast area and the cold front becomes the primary focus for
forcing. Currently expect this main line of storms to enter the NW
corner of the forecast area around 7 PM, into Manhattan area by 10
PM, and into the Topeka area around midnight before moving out of
the area by 4 AM. As previously mentioned, the instability
decreases to near zero after 10 PM, and thus expect severe weather
to be limited to areas west of Manhattan, although there are
occasionally situations in high shear environments during which
the lift along a front is sufficient to support a low end severe
threat even after instability dissipates. Stronger downdrafts and
bowing segments with damaging wind would seem to be the primary
severe weather hazard, especially given the strong winds through
the lower atmosphere associated with this storms system. There
also seems to be a small potential for tornadoes, mainly near and
west of Highway 81 where the instability may actually support
updraft rotation at times. The overall severe threat in the
forecast area is low...but non-zero.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
Confidence on the specifics of when and where best coverage of
precipitation will be over the next 24 hours is not high, but the
overall setup is for a widespread wet event over much of the Central
Plains.
00Z upper jet structure showed southern branch from central Baja
into Kansas with northern branch south and east around the Great
Basin upper low then northeast into the Four Corners, and this will
push east through tonight with persistent diffluence over Kansas
resulting. Deep moisture will steadily increase with stronger mid
level flow initially leading to better isentropic lift there
(ongoing in central portions of the state) and then somewhat lower
as the day progresses and 850 mb winds increase to near 60 kt around
00Z. Elevated creeps up as well for an increasing thunder concern
pushing east with time. Have generally indicated the most likely wet
periods from mid morning through early evening from west to east,
close to the WRF-ARW and recent HRRR runs which seem to be handling
the overnight convection the best. They are also similar with
surface-based storms breaking out in the KHLC vicinity in the late
afternoon hours as the mid level dry slot works northeast and cold
front surges east. With plenty of shear, CAPE will be the main
limiting factor with this activity maintaining itself through north
central Kansas, but at least minor concern for severe hail and wind
potential exist in western areas. Cold front sweeps through
overnight with clearing and drying taking over. High temperature
details are also difficult with onset and duration of daytime precip
and continued late-day south winds coinciding with some potential
dry periods in the west possibly leading to max values around 0Z.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
Drier air will move into eastern Kansas in the wake of the frontal
boundary and upper level system on Tuesday. Surface high pressure
will build into eastern Kansas Tuesday night and Wednesday keeping
winds rather light and temperatures below normal. GFS and ECMWF move
an upper trough across the plains Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Forecast soundings show dry air in the low and mid levels will be
present keeping chances of any measurable precipitation to the south
of the CWA. Cannot rule out a few sprinkles south of I-35 though.
Models continue to offer differing solutions for Friday through the
weekend. The ECMWF has been inconsistent while the GFS has been more
consistent on a run to run basis. The ECMWF is much sharper and
further south with the mid level trough while the GFS maintains a ridge
in the eastern Pacific and northwest flow across the Plains with a
broad upper low over Ontario into the Ohio Valley through the
weekend. However the ECMWF brings another shortwave trough across
Kansas Saturday. Given the differences in the models and limited
moisture availability, will go with a dry forecast at this time
and will wait and see what later model runs provide. Highs will
mainly be in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
Periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact TAF
sites through this afternoon. Should see predominant MVFR
conditions through 00Z, but with a few breaks to VFR possible.
MVFR will likely lower to IFR around 01Z at MHK although with some
potential to occur sooner. Cigs should stay above 1000 feet at
TOP/FOE. A cold front will likely arrive at MHK near 03Z and
TOP/FOE near 05Z with a period of IFR conditions and TS. A brief
period of strong TS winds will be possible as well. Colder drier
air brings VFR and northwest winds after the frontal passage.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NE ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH A TROF EXTENDING SW INTO THE
ROCKIES WHERE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER UT/CO. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT LIFTS NE. BTWN THE SYSTEMS OVER HUDSON BAY AND THE
ROCKIES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID
20S TO LWR 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF UPPER MI. HERE AT NWS
MQT...THE TEMP SO FAR AS OF 09Z HAS FALLEN TO 30F...MAKING THIS THE
FIRST NIGHT THIS AUTUMN WITH A MIN TEMP AT OR BLO FREEZING. THIS
TIES 1997 FOR THE LATEST OCCURRENCE OF THE FIRST MIN TEMP AT OR BLO
FREEZING IN AUTUMN.
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE E TODAY WHILE SHORTWAVE
OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTS NE INTO THE WRN PLAINS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL W AND SW OF HERE TODAY. HOWEVER...RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SRN MANITOBA
WILL BRING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS ALREADY
AIDING SOME BANDS OF -SHRA ACROSS ND INTO NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING
PER RADAR IMAGERY THOUGH NOT ALL OF IT IS REACHING THE GROUND. THRU
LATE AFTN...PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER JET OVER NRN ONTARIO/SRN MANITOBA
WILL LEAD TO BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINING W OF THE FCST AREA AS
DOES ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR
MASS OVER THE AREA (SIMILAR TO 00Z KINL SOUNDING) WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS
TO THE W OVER MN. THUS...PLAN TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS UPPER
MI TODAY...BUT WILL BRING CHC POPS INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MID/LATE
AFTN AS ERN FRINGE OF PCPN AREA MAY MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO DRIER
AIR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY FROM W TO E AS CLOUDS SPREAD DOWNWIND FROM THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AREA TO THE W. GUIDANCE IS WELL
CLUSTERED ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S.
AS UPPER JET TO THE N LIFTS SLIGHTLY N AND E...THERE SHOULD BE AN
AREA OF -SHRA THAT SHIFTS ACROSS WRN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT...PROBABLY TO THE N OF UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS WILL LIFT TO SE SD/SW MN/NW IA BY 12Z TUE WITH
HEALTHY FORCING NOTED BY DEEP LAYER QVECTORS SPREADING TOWARD UPPER
MI LATE. COMBINED WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON THE 300K SFC...EXPECT SHRA TO ADVANCE NE
INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
MODELS ARE IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT
LACK AGREEMENT ON SPECIFIC DETAILS /ESPECIALLY FOR TUE-WED/ THAT
LEADS TO A MORE UNCERTAIN FORECAST.
A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER FAR SW MN AT 12Z
TUE...WITH WAA DRIVEN PRECIP OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CWA THROUGH TUE
MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OR S OF THE CWA /DEPENDING OF
MODEL SOLUTION/ THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT AS A
TROWAL WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A
BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AND THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THE 00Z/14 GFS AND 00Z/14 NAM ARE FASTER AND
FARTHER N WITH THE TIMING/TRACK...WHICH MOVES THE TROWAL AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN E FASTER ON WED. THE 12Z/13 GEM AND 12Z/13 ECMWF ARE
SLOWER...BUT STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK. IF THE MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...EVEN THOUGH IT IS SLOWER...RAIN
WILL NOT LAST AS LONG ON WED AS EVEN THE GFS/NAM ARE SAYING SINCE
THE TROWAL WOULD BE S/SE OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER AND
FARTHER N SOLUTION OF THE GEM WOULD RESULT IN THE LONGEST LASTING
RAIN AS THE TROWAL STAYS OVER THE CWA INTO EARLY WED NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION GIVEN MODEL TRENDS IN
THAT DIRECTION. WILL ALSO KEEP POPS HIGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS
CONFIDENCE OFF AREA WIDE RAIN IS GOOD AT THAT TIME.
FOR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...MODELS GIVE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
TROUGHING AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. AFTER THAT...A DEEP UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE S FROM HUDSON BAY CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN ONTARIO THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY COLD AIRMASS
OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THU...BUT PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN ALONG THE FRONT AS
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION. WILL NOT GO HIGHER THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THU. BY 00Z SAT...850MB TEMPS COOL TO AROUND
-2C...SO EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP ALONG A SECONDARY AND STRONGER
COLD FRONT ON FRI GIVEN LAKE SFC TEMPS OF 9C TO 13C. MODELS THEN
SHOW 850MB TEMPS DECREASING TO -5C TO -7C FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVE THROUGH. WITH THESE
COLDER TEMPS...EXPECT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WITH INCREASES IN
INTENSITY WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM ANY CONTRIBUTING SYNOPTIC ENERGY. AS
FOR PRECIP TYPE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE ALL SNOW AT NIGHT/MORNING
WHEN TEMPS ARE COOLEST FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...AND MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S
SO SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE WARMER DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL THREE SITES OVER THE NEXT
12-18HRS...AS A AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA. BUT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO WISCONSIN
TOMORROW WILL PUSH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS...EXPECT THE VFR
CEILINGS TO QUICKLY FALL TO MVFR AS THE RAIN INCREASES IN INTENSITY.
DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...OPTED TO LEAVE KIWD AT
MVFR CEILINGS BUT LOWERED KSAW TO IFR CEILINGS TOWARDS MID DAY SINCE
THAT IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR THEM. THIS HEAVIEST BAND OF
SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL THINK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013
HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN LAKES WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...MOSTLY UNDER 15KT THRU MID AFTN. LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM W TO E AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS E AND LOW PRES LIFTS NE THRU THE PLAINS. BY TUE AFTN...E
TO NE WINDS WILL BE INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
AS THE LOW MOVES ENE JUST TO THE S OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTN THRU
WED MORNING...THESE STRONGER WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE
WILL SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE WINDS
BACK NORTHERLY. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF GALES TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH W TO E WED AFTN/NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER E AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE AOB 20KT THU/FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
401 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
THE MASSIVE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS EASTWARD SHIFT INTO
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIP PROBABILITIES PEAK TO 90-100
PERCENT BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
PROBABILITIES ON TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT
WORKS INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 40S TONIGHT...WITH NEARLY
STEADY OR ONLY SLIGHTLY RISING READINGS ON TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY MID DAY TUESDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS COOLER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION. THE PASSING OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
MARKED BY BREEZY WINDS EASTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS
IN CENTRAL MN OR NORTHWEST WI BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
SOME RESIDUAL BL MOISTURE REMAINS...THE SOUNDINGS DRY OUT NICELY
ABOVE 900 MB WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD
BETWEEN 12-15 Z WEDNESDAY. WE MOVED THE RAIN OUT A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANGE WAS
VERY MINOR. NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICK OR IF WE DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
FOG IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS...WE GET THE FEELING WINDS WILL
GO NEAR CALM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE MASS AND MOMENTUM
FIELDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST /THURSDAY-
SATURDAY/ AND EVEN WHEN LOOKING AT THE MODEL TEMPERATURE SPREADS
THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF VARIABILITY. THERE ARE A COUPLE WEAK
FRONT COMING THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH OF WHICH COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF. THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT IS COLD ENOUGH
BASED ON THE PROFILES AND BL WETBULB TO THINK ABOUT A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. EVEN IF SNOW OCCURS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...IT WILL
MELT ON CONTACT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPS. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS MORE MODEL AMBIGUITY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...CONTINUED COOL /BELOW NORMAL/ TEMPS AND LIGHT RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX ARE LIKELY. LITTLE TO NO RAIN/SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD REEMPHASIZE
THAT AFTER TOMORROW...THE PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TIMING THE ONSET OF MODERATE RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. THE HRRR HASN/T BEEN TOO SHABBY TODAY
MODELING PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND EXPANDS LIGHT SHOWERS TO EAST
CENTRAL MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
OVER MN SITES AFTER 00Z...AND WI SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. STILL
LIKE THE 0.5KM NAM12 CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS FOR TIMING
OF CIG REDUCTIONS...WHICH WOULD EXPAND LOW-END MVFR CIGS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS MN SITES BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z...WITH FURTHER
REDUCTION TO IFR CIGS AT MN SITES BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z. WI SITES
WOULD SEE SIMILAR REDUCTIONS OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
RAIN TO LINGER ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME DRY SLOTTING MAY YIELD
PRECIP BREAKS FROM SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE DEFORMATION
BAND OF PRECIP SWINGS ACROSS. ANY CIG IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR WOULD
BE BRIEF...WITH PREDOMINANT IFR CIGS EXPECTED ONCE THEY DEGRADE
TONIGHT. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
WITH THE FROPA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...
EXPECT THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS /VFR CAT/ OVER SOUTHWEST MN
TO REACH KMSP AROUND 22Z...WITH MORE MODERATE SHOWERS AND MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING BY 03Z...WHEN CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALSO START
REDUCING. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO REDUCE TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 06Z...AND
THEN LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN
THE RAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN SOME DRIER
AIR WORKS IN...BUT CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
ONCE THEY LOWER TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...IFR/MVFR. CHANCE -RA EARLY. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
125 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
HIGH PRESSURE... WHICH BROUGHT US THE BEAUTIFUL DAY ON SUNDAY WAS
CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING... WHILE A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. MODEL TRENDS
REMAIN CONSISTENT ON DEEPENING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
TO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THEN OFF TO
WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... WITH SHOWERS INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR... WHICH KEEPS THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT IS DEVELOPING FOCUSED OVER OUR WESTERN
MINNESOTA COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. UPGLIDE AND SATURATION
GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN
MOVING INTO THE TWIN CITIES BY LATE IN THE DAY AND ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE 00Z SPC-WRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS THROUGH
36 HOURS DEPICT QUITE WELL HOW WE FEEL THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD.
WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT HOLDING BACK TO THE WEST TODAY ALONG
WITH THE STRONG FORCING DEVELOPING... RAIN AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH VARIOUS
WRF/S...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF... SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
AS THE LOW ADVANCES NORTHEAST TONIGHT... THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
PROGRESS INTO EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI AND CURVE BACK INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS DEPICTED BY ALL
MODELS IN THE RESULTING DEFORMATION ZONE THAT DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HENCE... THE FOCUS ON THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT ARE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. COMBINING TODAY AND TONIGHT YIELDS A
RAINFALL FORECAST OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
WITH 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM HPC. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
WATER PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND HOW
THIS RAIN IS SPREAD OUT OVER TIME. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIMITED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT
IS THE THREAT OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. BEST LI FORECASTS
FROM THE NAM STILL SUGGEST NEAR ZERO PASSING THROUGH. CAPE IS SMALL
(LESS THAN 250 J/KG) ABOVE THE WARM LAYER CENTERED NEAR 750 MB. THE
THREAT SEEMS MINIMAL AND IT WAS KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. SPC ALSO
HAS US OUTSIDE OF THE GENERAL THUNDER CONTOUR.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS A TOUGH ONE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE EARLY
ON IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST ARE LIKELY TO BE NEARLY
STEADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH A RUN INTO THE LOWER 60S
FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S
COMMON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DOWN IN
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ENTERING SW MN TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL FILL AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL
CARVE ITSELF OUT A HOME FROM HUDSON BY BACK SOUTHWEST TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL SPREAD/DISCREPANCIES ARE
FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT AGREEMENT ON SMALL SCALE DETAILS
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THE WEEKEND.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE STARTING OUT WITH A SFC LOW OVER SW MN THAT
WILL SLIDE OVER TO NEAR GREEN BAY BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
WORKING UP TO ABOUT THE TWIN CITIES TUESDAY MORNING THAT THEN SLIDES
EAST WITH THE LOW DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOIST
LAYER EXTENDING FROM THE SFC UP TO ABOUT 825 MB...WITH IT DRY ABOVE
THAT. OMEGA WITHIN THIS MOIST LAYER REMAINS NEGATIVE...WHICH MEANS
UPWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE DESPITE THE LOSS OF DEEP
MOISTURE...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF DRIZZLE.
THEREFORE...ADDED A DRIZZLE MENTION TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BENEATH THE DRY SLOT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
INTO WRN WI. NORTH AND WEST OF THE DRY SLOT...AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION
REGION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...SO
EXTENDED CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE MN CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIGHT DEFORMATION RAINS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN RIGHT
BEHIND THE DRY SLOT. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND ENDED ANY RAIN MENTION IN THE ERN CWA AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE PUSHING INTO NODAK DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT REBOUND IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS/THICKNESSES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN
SUNDAY...JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. THAT FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE MPX AREA ON THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL QUITE
DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM AND THIS FRONT WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HENCE A MAINLY DRY PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...MODELS SHOW BEST PRECIP CHANCES EXISTING
OVER IN WI THU AFTERNOON...WHEN THE GFS SHOWS WEAK...MOIST UPGLIDE
ON THE 290K/295K SFCS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO
FEATURE BREEZY NW WINDS...PLENTY OF STRATOCU...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. GIVEN FREEZING LEVELS DOWN UNDER H85 /AROUND 3K FT
AGL/...WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE SLEET MIX IN WITH ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO FEATURE THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE FALL. BEYOND THAT THOUGH...THE GFS SHOWS
COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODIFY SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF A
STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM IT SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TIMING THE ONSET OF MODERATE RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. THE HRRR HASN/T BEEN TOO SHABBY TODAY
MODELING PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND EXPANDS LIGHT SHOWERS TO EAST
CENTRAL MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
OVER MN SITES AFTER 00Z...AND WI SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. STILL
LIKE THE 0.5KM NAM12 CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS FOR TIMING
OF CIG REDUCTIONS...WHICH WOULD EXPAND LOW-END MVFR CIGS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS MN SITES BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z...WITH FURTHER
REDUCTION TO IFR CIGS AT MN SITES BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z. WI SITES
WOULD SEE SIMILAR REDUCTIONS OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. EXPECT
RAIN TO LINGER ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME DRY SLOTTING MAY YIELD
PRECIP BREAKS FROM SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE DEFORMATION
BAND OF PRECIP SWINGS ACROSS. ANY CIG IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR WOULD
BE BRIEF...WITH PREDOMINANT IFR CIGS EXPECTED ONCE THEY DEGRADE
TONIGHT. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
WITH THE FROPA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...
EXPECT THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS /VFR CAT/ OVER SOUTHWEST MN
TO REACH KMSP AROUND 22Z...WITH MORE MODERATE SHOWERS AND MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING BY 03Z...WHEN CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALSO START
REDUCING. ANTICIPATE CIGS TO REDUCE TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 06Z...AND
THEN LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN
THE RAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN SOME DRIER
AIR WORKS IN...BUT CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
ONCE THEY LOWER TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...IFR/MVFR. CHANCE -RA EARLY. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1223 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS WITH QUITE HIGH MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PLENTY OF FORECAST
CHALLENGES RANGING FROM TRYING TO REFINE SHORT-TERM
POPS...ASSESSING THE MAGNITUDE OF A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...DETERMINING THE EFFECTS OF
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIP ON HIGH TEMPS...AND ALSO TRYING TO
DETERMINE HOW CLOSE ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA MAY COME TO AT
LEAST BRIEFLY FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW.
08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A GRADUALLY-TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 1031 MILLIBAR HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...AND A 1006 LOW OVER NORTHEAST CO. AS A
RESULT...SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AT THIS
HOUR ARE AVERAGING AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA HIGHLIGHT A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PLOWING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH ITS 500MB VORT MAX CURRENTLY
SWINGING OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A 100+KT
JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CO...AND FARTHER DOWN A
40-50KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EVIDENT AT 850MB...RIGHT OVER
THE HEART OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NEB AND KS. MUCH AS EXPECTED FOR DAYS
NOW...STOUT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER HAS RESULTED IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. OF
COURSE...ITS NOT RAINING EVERYWHERE AT ONCE...AND EARLIER ON MOST
OF THE PRECIP WAS FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS THE MAIN FOCUS HAS TRANSITIONED TO ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST IN AT LEAST A SHORT
TERM LULL. ALTHOUGH ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PRODUCED/COULD PRODUCE VERY SMALL
HAIL...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MUCAPE IN THE
850-700MB LAYER ONLY AVERAGING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG PER LATEST RAP-
BASED MESOANALYSIS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...TEMPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER WHAT HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD COVER AND SLOWLY-INCREASING DEWPOINTS...WITH MOST ALL PLACES
CURRENTLY SOMEWHERE IN THE 50S.
FOCUSING ON THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY THROUGH 00Z/7PM...TOOK A BEST
STAB AT 3-HOURLY POP TRENDS...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
ENTIRE CWA IS SPORTING AN 80-90 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
THROUGH SUNSET...ITS JUST A MATTER OF WHEN IT FALLS AND HOW MUCH
FALLS. IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE PRIMARY 500MB VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE NEB PANHANDLE
BY MID-DAY AS IT DEEPENS AND SWINGS NORTHEAST IN A NEGATIVELY
TILTED FASHION...AND THEN REACHING FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY AROUND
SUNSET. IN SUIT...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED IN
NORTHEAST CO IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL...BUT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...MEANING THAT IT GENERALLY
SKIRTS JUST ALONG THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY SUNSET WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 1003MB. MEANWHILE...A STOUT 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY...WHICH IN
TANDEM WITH CONTINUED LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD
PROMOTE RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ITS YET
TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAINLY STAYS
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS CURRENTLY
HAPPENING...OR EVENTUALLY ALSO DEVELOPS OVER...OR MOVES INTO WESTERN
AREAS AS WELL. MODELS VARY...WITH SOME ENDING THE LULL OVER THE
WEST BY MID-MORNING...WHILE OTHERS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON EASTERN AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH MID-DAY. AT ANY
RATE...WOULD BE QUITE SURPRISED IF ANY OF THE CWA GOT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN...AS MANY EASTERN AREAS COULD
EASILY RECEIVE 0.50-0.75 INCH OR MORE THROUGH SUNSET. TURNING TO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HAS ALSO BEEN ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS
NOW WE ARE FACING A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AS SPC HAS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN A DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION HERE IS...HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE JUST
WEST OF...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INVADING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE INVADING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE COMBO...TO PROMOTE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SEVERE STORMS. FOLLOWING THE LEAD
OF THE LATEST RAP...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
LOCKED UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
PRECIP THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIKELY NOTHING MORE
THAN A HIT AND MISS THREAT OF SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO AROUND
DIME SIZE. HOWEVER...BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THE RAP BRINGS A
NARROW NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CAPE POTENTIALLY INTO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.
AS A RESULT...AND AS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
4KM WRF-NMM AND ARW AND ALSO THE LATEST HRRR...A LINE OF FAST
MOVING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD SWEEP FROM WEST-
EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MAINLY BETWEEN 4PM-9PM...BUT LIKELY
GRADUALLY LOSING STEAM AS IT DOES SO. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE STRONG...THUS MEANING THAT A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT IS NON-
ZERO...EXPECT SYNOPTIC FORCING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE A
LINEAR MODE FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WINDS
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 60 MPH...AND MAYBE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE. ALTHOUGH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WILL BE FOCUSING THE LOCAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK MAINLY ON THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...OR
ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF A LOUP CITY-BELOIT LINE WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE IT DROPS OFF FARTHER EAST AS NIGHT
FALLS. TURNING BRIEFLY TO OTHER ELEMENTS TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AND OBVIOUSLY VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
PRECIP IS FALLING AND WHETHER ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT BASED ON A VARIED BLEND OF SHORT TERM
MODELS/GUIDANCE HAVE A RANGE FROM ONLY MID-UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID-
UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS A BIT COOLER THAN A STRAIGHT MET/MAV
GUIDANCE BLEND AND COUNTS ON LOW CLOUDS HOLDING FIRM ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. WIND-WISE TODAY...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY QUITE BREEZY
WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...NOT
EXPECTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO BREACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH.
TURNING TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD/7PM-7AM/...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON HOW
QUICKLY CONVECTION VACATES THE AREA...AND HOW STRONG WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME. ON THE BIG PICTURE...THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL
ONLY SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEB TO NEAR SIOUX
FALLS...WHILE THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH AND
MAINTAINS A SIMILAR CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 1003MB. IN THE STOUT
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...AND IN AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA MAY BE OVERALL-WINDIER TONIGHT THAN THEY ARE DURING THE
DAY TODAY...EXCEPT THIS TIME OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
QUICKLY PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS SLATED TO CRUISE ACROSS THE
CWA GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-11PM. ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE UNDER-DOING WIND
SPEEDS A BIT...AT LEAST FOR NOW EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO ONLY
AVERAGE IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH...AND THUS
FALLING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. NEIGHBORING
OFFICES TO THE WEST HAVE ISSUED WIND HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT JUST DON/T SEE THE LOCAL AREA
BEING QUITE WINDY ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH OF
COURSE LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. OTHERWISE...IN
TERMS OF PRECIP TRENDS...HAVE SLIGHTLY SPED UP THE DEPARTURE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH MUCH OF THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA LIKELY
DRIED OUT BY AROUND SUNSET...WHILE LIKELY POPS CONTINUE IN EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH 02Z/9PM BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS COULD CARRY AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT UNTIL THEY DEPART EASTERN AREAS...BUT WOULD EXPECT
THE MAIN THREAT TO DIMINISH POST-SUNSET. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP WILL VACATE THE AREA THIS EVENING...DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY
BARELY BRUSHING THE CWA ON THE SOUTH-END OF THE WRAP-AROUND
SHIELD. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
NEB HOWEVER. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH MOST OF
THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 39-42 RANGE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA MAY BE HELD UP A BIT BY
PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS WRAPPING BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THOSE
VENTURING OUT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WILL DEFINITELY NOTICE A
BITE TO THE AIR...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH FROST/FREEZE CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
BUSY PATTERN STARTING OUT TUESDAY MORNING AS 500MB CLOSED LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SDAK/MN BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM STACKED AS
SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE JUST A TAD SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW
POSITION. IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER LOW...TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AS NOTED ABOVE...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY
AS WE SIT IN BETWEEN A WOUND UP SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER
AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A 20MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NEBRASKA. SHOULD SEE
SUSTAINED 25 MPH WINDS AT LEAST AND MAY BE APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM MID MORNING
TO MID AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE. IF WE
DO GET ANY IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN ONE OR TWO
HUNDREDTHS.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND ALSO EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT...SO WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30...MUCH OF THE CWA STANDS A
DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING FROST WED MORNING.
ON THURSDAY ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. FRIDAY IS A
LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS A DEEP UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE U.S. THE EC MODELS BRINGS DOWN MUCH COLDER
AIR THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. IT ALSO BRINGS A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND GENERATES SOME MODERATE
QPF WITH IT. THE GFS NOT SHOWING THIS AND THE GEM IS ALSO
UNDERPLAYING THIS FEATURE. CHECKING THE ALL BLEND POPS...THEY ARE
ONLY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. BACK TO
THE EC...IF ONE WERE TO ONLY LOOK AT 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...THERE
MAY BE CAUSE FOR CONCERN AS THE EC IS SHOWING THICKNESSES CONDUCIVE
FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE EC SHOWS SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY MORNING.
ALSO THE GROUND SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM SINCE HIGHS ON WED AND
THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 60. SO IF THE EC DOES VERIFY WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS TO BE MORE OF A
COLD RAIN. OF COURSE THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KGRI TERMINAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD LIFT AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING TURNING WINDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG DURING THE
NIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1222 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA
AS A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO ERN SD BY EARLY TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR OVER WRN IA WAS KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS A BIT HIGHER AT KLNK/KOMA
BUT BOTH SHOULD BE LOWERING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS EAST LATER
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE LINES ALSO MOVE
EAST. BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST OF TAF SITES BY
02-04Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR EARLY AND COULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WRLY WINDS BEHIND
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING COULD LIMIT SRN EXTENSION OF LOWER CIGS
UNTIL LATER IN TAF PERIOD...BUT MVFR CIGS WERE MAINTAINED IN OUT
PERIOD FOR NOW.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE RAIN TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND DETERMINING RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AT 08Z...SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH PARTS
OF NEBRASKA...THEN EXTENDED SOUTHWEST THROUGH COLORADO AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER UTAH PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WAS AN IMPRESSIVE JET MAX OF AROUND 145
KNOTS AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL ANALYSIS NEAR THE COLORADO-
NEW MEXICO BORDER. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED WITHIN
THIS PRECIPITATION AREA. THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW WAS MAXIMIZED FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE 3 HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS WERE 2-3MB.
BASED ON THE 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT RISES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE EXPECTED SCENARIO IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE
FROM UTAH INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
PIVOT THE JET AXIS TO A MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION...POSITIONING IT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO-SOUTHERN KANSAS. EXPECT STRONG UPWARD
FORCING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF: THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAX...STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM CONVEYER BELT REGION...AND
CONTINUED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A WELL-DEFINED EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE PATTERN
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TONIGHT.
IN THESE SCENARIOS WE CAN PLAN ON SOMEWHAT HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE
LOW DURING THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING...THEN THE DRY SLOT
PUSHING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEN AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WITH
CLOSER TO 0.5 INCH NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER...AND 1-1.5 INCHES NEAR
I-80. THESE AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE MODEL RAINFALL.
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF AROUND 60 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN 40-45
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE QUITE STRONG AND COULD MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
AREAS GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF NORFOLK.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER
TUESDAY THAN TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...CLOUDS...AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY WITH COOL/QUIET WEATHER. THE
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA SETTLES INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN US...AND THIS KEEPS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME INTO NEXT WEEK.
NIETFELD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
301 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND
RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS PUSHED EAST TO OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LOWER MICHIGAN AS LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE LOW HAS FORMED IN
THE RESPONSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS OVER EASTERN WYOMING. THE
14.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
OUTCOME.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...IT WILL TAKE ON A POSITIVE TILT
AS IT BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH EMANATING
FROM THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSONS BAY. EVEN AS
THIS IS OCCURRING...THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE WYOMING
LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG AND BRING BETWEEN 8 AND 16 PVU/S
OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500 TO 300 MB LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS CREATES STRONG AND
DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH THIS
THEN MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. EXCELLENT
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 UBAR/S ON THE 295K SURFACE ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ON THIS LEVEL BEING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ALL THIS FORCING WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR BROUGHT IN BY THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND EXPECT TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AFTER 03Z OR SO AND HAVE SPREAD 90 TO 100 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH STARTS
TO MOVE OFF TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALLOWING THE DRY SLOT TO
EITHER APPROACH THE AREA OR MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN BECOMING ORIENTED
INTO THE DEFORMATION BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS DEFORMATION BAND WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL SHOW 50 TO 70
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF I90 FOR THIS. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL
THEN EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND JUST HELD ON TO SOME LINGERING
CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING BEFORE GOING DRY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSONS BAY AND LOOKS TO SWING
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. THERE COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH TO
OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THESE SYSTEMS...WILL SHOW SOME SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT...FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES COULD GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SOME SNOW AND HAVE
INCLUDED THIS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLING DOWN TO BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA
OF BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 15.03Z AND KLSE
AROUND 15.06Z. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...IT WILL
TAKE ABOUT 3 HOURS BEFORE THE CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR. THE
CEILINGS WILL THEN LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE VISIBILITIES TO BECOME MVFR AT KRST
ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT THE CEILINGS BECOME IFR...BUT WAS NOT AS
CONFIDENT TO DO THE SAME AT KLSE....SO LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW.
WHILE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE NARROW...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHEN THIS PRECIPITATION MIGHT END. THE
LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR AT KRST BY 10Z AT KRST
AND 13Z AT KLSE. HOWEVER THE NMM AND ARW SHOW THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SINCE IT WAS
UNCLEAR...WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND ENDED IT AROUND 15.14Z AT
KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON
OCT 14 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW PRESSURE
IS DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ALSO SOME THUNDER
AHEAD OF THE LOW AS WELL OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE LOW MOVES NE
TOWARDS THE REGION...PRECIP TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW...PLENTY OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL INITIALLY KEEP THE COLUMN
FROM SATURATING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PORTRAY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THOUGH ALONG WITH A
STEADY EAST WIND WHICH WILL MAKE THE NIGHT RATHER CHILLY. BY LATE
TONIGHT...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIP. A 40-50KT
LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL
BRING IN PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH BY 09Z. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY SOLID
PRECIP BAND ARRIVE BETWEEN 09-12Z OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WITH A BRISK EAST WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS WILL
BE WARMER AND MAINLY IN THE 40S.
TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 00Z WED. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL
ALSO MOVE IN THE NE DIRECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL GIVE THE ENTIRE AREA A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING
A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH (OR MORE) OF RAINFALL. THOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UNDER 100 J/KG...DO NOT THINK WE
CAN RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRY SLOT. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. PLENTY OF WIND
ALOFT TO BE BROUGHT DOWN BY ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SO WILL LEAVE A
MENTION IN THE HWO. A DRY SLOT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON ABOVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. PROGGED
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS DRYING OUT ABOVE 700MB WHERE A DECENT
CAP WILL DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...THINK WILL SEE AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE AT BEST ALONG THE FRONT...THOUGH ANY SHOWERS COULD
STILL BRING A DECENT WIND GUST. HIGHS AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER
50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH WESTERN GREAT LAKES
GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SPELL A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ATTENDANT SW-NE ORIENTATED DEFORMATION ZONE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND NORTHERN
PENETRATION OF DRY SLOT AS SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SWATH OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ON NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING
THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 00Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION PUSHING NORTHWARD TO
ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 29 CORRIDOR SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIST MAINLY NORTH OF THIS LINE. WOULD
EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND/OR
SOME DRIZZLE FOR A TIME TUESDAY EVENING. REMANANTS OF ERODING
DEFORMATION ZONE...AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SURFACE REFLECTION STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENOUGH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE IN CONCERT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO KEEP HIGH-END
CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WILL FEEL RATHER FALL-LIKE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LENDING TO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S.
VERY WEAK RIDGING AND SUFFCIENTLY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD BRING A DRY
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WILL START OUT RATHER COOL HOWEVER WITH
TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH SOME FROST AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE WANES AS WE GET INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER HUDSON BAY EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE TRYING TO TWEAK TIMING SO PRETTY MUCH LEFT PREVIOUS
FORECAST ALONE. STILL APPEARS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A MAINLY DRY DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO BANK ON THAT. SOMEWHAT MORE
CONFIDENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH READING CONTINUING TO SLIDE TO
BELOW NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST OVER THIS
TIME. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT...AND THEN
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY AROUND 12Z. AS THE RAIN
ARRIVES...GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS SHOW CIGS/VSBYS FALLING TO
IFR/MVFR LEVELS...WHICH WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A SURFACE LOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1243 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 AM. WIDESPREAD
FROST HAS OCCURRED OVER THE ADVISORY AREA WITH EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH 9 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS DRIVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AS A 300 MB JET ROUNDS
ITS BASE AND HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF WITH PLACING THE 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN MN BY
18Z TUE...MORE OR LESS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW AT THIS TIME. STRONG QG RESPONSE...DEEPER AND STRONGER OVER
SOUTHERN MN/NORTHWEST WI FROM 06Z-18Z TUE. THERMODYNAMICS ARE
EQUALLY HEFTY...WITH A STRONG PUSH OF 925-700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN...ALONG WITH RISING AIR ALONG THE 290-305 K
ISENTROPIC SFCS. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 300 MB JET WILL ENHANCE
THE ALREADY APPRECIABLE LIFT...MOSTLY IN THE DEFORMATION REGION OF
THE STORM SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE IS GOOD ALONG
THE SYSTEM/S SOUTHWARD HANGING COLD FRONT...WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL
JET SURGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT...THEN WRAPPED
WESTWARD AROUND THE LOW.
ITS GOING TO RAIN.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PCPN ENCROACHING UPON AREAS WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL/MOISTURE TRANSPORT BAND OF PCPN SHIFTS ACROSS
EASTERN WI BY LATE MORNING WHILE THE DEFORMATION BAND NORTH-WEST OF
THE SFC LOW HANGS FROM SOUTHERN MN TO ACROSS THE UP OF MICH. THIS
REGION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHTTIME HOURS. COULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN WITH
A DRY 850-700 MB PUNCH OF AIR POST THE SFC FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAY THIS TREND IN THE PCPN CHANCES.
ON WED...A LINGERING WESTWARD EXTENDING SFC TROUGH AND A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD CONTINUE TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE MORNING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
GFS/EC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTING UP SHOP
OVER HUDSON/S BAY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH A TROUGH
REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOCALLY...THIS PUTS THE
REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH VARIOUS BITS
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF MN/WI. CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC FRONT COMBO. NOTHING OVERLY DYNAMIC AT THIS
TIME...AND CAN/T FERRET OUT A MORE LIKELY PERIOD THIS FAR OUT. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSENSUS FOR PCPN CHANCES.
850 MB TEMPS WILL TUMBLE TO -6 C FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ECMWF 850 MB
TEMP ANOMALIES FROM -1 TO -1.5. ITS GOING TO BE A COOL LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA
OF BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 15.03Z AND KLSE
AROUND 15.06Z. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...IT WILL
TAKE ABOUT 3 HOURS BEFORE THE CEILINGS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR. THE
CEILINGS WILL THEN LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE VISIBILITIES TO BECOME MVFR AT KRST
ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT THE CEILINGS BECOME IFR...BUT WAS NOT AS
CONFIDENT TO DO THE SAME AT KLSE....SO LEFT THEM OUT FOR NOW.
WHILE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE NARROW...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON WHEN THIS PRECIPITATION MIGHT END. THE
LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR AT KRST BY 10Z AT KRST
AND 13Z AT KLSE. HOWEVER THE NMM AND ARW SHOW THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SINCE IT WAS
UNCLEAR...WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND ENDED IT AROUND 15.14Z AT
KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE