Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/13/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 302 PM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IS LIFTING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. THE LAST WAVE
IN NW FLOW PASSED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER
EFFECT. EARLY AFTERNOON HEATING HAS PRODUCED CONVECTIVE CELLS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE STAYED BELOW
THE -20C ISOTHERM SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM RUNS INDICATE
ONLY ANOTHER 0-2 CONVECTIVE INCHES WILL FALL IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. ALL SHOWERS TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WITH VERY WET
SOILS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FRIDAY MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THE MODELED RH VALUES DO NOT SHOW LARGE AREAS OF MORNING
SATURATION THOUGH SO WILL LET THE NIGHT SHIFT REACT TO LOCALIZED
FOG IF NEEDED.

WEAK RIDGING PASSES QUICKLY ON SATURDAY BACKING THE FLOW ALOFT TO
SW. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN 3-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL NEAR SEATTLE SATURDAY MORNING
AND DIGS TO NEAR RENO SATURDAY NIGHT. SW MTN WINDS STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AND MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INVADE NE UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF TAKING ON A POSITIVE TILT BY THE DIGGING
JET ALOFT. THE DOWNSTREAM PORTION OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING OVER
OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY
A JET MAX ALOFT. THETA SURFACES DO NOT SHOW A STRONG FEED OF
MOISTURE INTO THIS SYSTEM BUT PWATS DO PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL
JUST UNDER HALF OF AN INCH AS THE LIFT MOVES OVERHEAD. POPS WILL
BE TRENDING UPWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN EARLY ON...AS TOP DOWN SATURATION WE WORKING TO GET
PRECIPITATION TO THE GROUND. MID LEVEL TEMPS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS
WILL AGAIN BE AOA 12000 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS...AND CLOSER TO 10000 FEET OVER THE UINTAS. WEAK UPRIGHT
CONVECTION AND THE STRONGER ASCENT MAY BRING THESE LEVELS DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY BUT DO NOW SEE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS AT THE PASSES
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ASCENT WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS
OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE JET MOVES EAST AND THE TROF LIFTS
NORTHEAST. COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROF LOOKS TO DROP SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO 7000 FEET OR SO BUT SOUNDING IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ATTM OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE
FAVORED FOR 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY LOOKS TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THANKS
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT MIXING. BEHIND THE TROF TEMPERATURES
COOL SOME DEGREES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL WHERE THEY LOOK TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEK.

THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EJECTING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ENERGY DROPPING BEHIND THIS LOW LOOKS TO CARVE OUT A
LINGERING TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE EURO SOLN HAS BEEN
HINTING AT THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE GFS REMAINS MUCH TOO
PROGRESSIVE. DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A STRONGLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAVORS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. DETAILS STILL NOT DIALED IN BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE CWA THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE MAY BE A
DOWNTURN TO PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT HIGH
LATITUDE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THROUGH MOISTURE STARVED THE
NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER SNOWFALL PRODUCTION GOING INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
THROUGH 03Z THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY IMPACTING KASE...KEGE...KSBS
AND KHDN. LOCALIZED MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG
MAY THREATEN LOCAL FLIGHT OPERATIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 942 AM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...WINDS STEADILY DECREASING...THOUGH SOME GUSTS STILL
IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. CURRENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM GJT TO DEN AT 8.33 MB...DOWN FROM A MAX OF 11.35 MB AT 10Z
DURING THE PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS. TREND FOR DECREASING WINDS STILL
ON TRACK...THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA ACROSS PLAINS.
ALLOWED HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. SNOW ALSO ON THE
DECREASE AS NOTED BY WEB CAMS...THOUGH RADAR STILL SHOWING THE
ECHOES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ADVISORY FOR MOUNTAINS TO
EXPIRE AT 18Z AND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS DON`T THINK AN EXTENSION
IS NEEDED. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM ACROSS
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING LIFT AND MINOR CAPE FROM
EXITING TROUGH. GRIDS AND CURRENT FORECASTS ON TRACK AT THIS
POINT...WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

.AVIATION...WINDS SHOWING MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...STILL
LESS THAN 8 KTS...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH THE
RECENT UPDATE BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND RAP
STILL INDICATING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT DEN AND APA WITH
LOCAL ANTICYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF DENVER WHILE THE LATEST NAM
SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH NO ANTICYCLONE. NORTHWEST WINDS TO
PREVAIL AT BJC. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TAF TRENDS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF -SHRA BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z...VCSH LOOKS GOOD. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013/

SHORT TERM...MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTN. SOME
MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN LOW AND STILL PRODUCING RAIN
ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE DECENT
SUBSIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE AREA AND COMBINING WITH A
DECENT LOW LVL GRADIENT WHICH IS STARTING TO ENHANCE WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS. A FEW GUSTS TO 80 MPH HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE PAST
HOUR IN THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS OF BOULDER AND NRN JEFFERSON
COUNTIES. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW HIGH WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE THRU
ABOUT 15Z AND THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WY-CO-NE BORDER AS WELL THRU THE
DAY HOWEVER WILL KEEP GUSTS JUST BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA.  IN THE
MTNS MOST OF THE SNOW IS OCCURRING NORTH OF I-70. CROSS-SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS HOWEVER MOISTURE DEPTH IS
ONLY ABOUT 200 MB WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES THRU MIDDAY.

FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT A WK UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WIND MAX AT 250 MB. IN ADDITION A COOL FNT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO THIS EVENING. THUS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW. OVER
NERN CO MAY SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS BY LATE AFTN THRU THE EVENING
HOURS AS WELL. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHC LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
A DENVER TO AKRON LINE. AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS NERN CO.

LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DIGS
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY KEEPING A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THIS WEEKEND.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH
USHERS IN WARMER AIR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE BROAD TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO
WYOMING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO.
MODELS SHOWING THE DRY SLOT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW WILL FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND PULL COOLER AIR
INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH. THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES
ELONGATED. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN
ARIZONA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO SOMETIME TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL. THERE IS AT LEAST ONE SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...THOUGH TIMING IS DIFFERENT AMONG THE MODELS. FOR POPS...WILL
GO WITH 10-20 POPS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

AVIATION...ONCE AGAIN NOT REAL CONFIDENT ABOUT WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. RAP TRIES TO SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WNW BY SUNRISE WHILE
THE HRRR KEEPS THEM SSW THRU 15Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM MORE SSW
THRU 15Z. AFTER 15Z BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW WINDS BECOMING E OR
NE AS A LONGMENT ANTICYLONE DEVELOPS DUE TO NWLY WINDS COMING OFF
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE SO WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION FM 15Z-18Z. BY
EARLY AFTN WINDS LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE BREAKS DOWN AS WINDS BECOME
MORE NNW. FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE AFTER
SUNSET. BY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF
-SHRA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WITH CEILINGS
BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 8000 FT.

HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...D-L




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 313 AM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTN. SOME
MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN LOW AND STILL PRODUCING RAIN
ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE DECENT
SUBSIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE AREA AND COMBINING WITH A
DECENT LOW LVL GRADIENT WHICH IS STARTING TO ENHANCE WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS. A FEW GUSTS TO 80 MPH HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE PAST
HOUR IN THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS OF BOULDER AND NRN JEFFERSON
COUNTIES. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW HIGH WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE THRU
ABOUT 15Z AND THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WY-CO-NE BORDER AS WELL THRU THE
DAY HOWEVER WILL KEEP GUSTS JUST BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA.  IN THE
MTNS MOST OF THE SNOW IS OCCURRING NORTH OF I-70. CROSS-SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS HOWEVER MOISTURE DEPTH IS
ONLY ABOUT 200 MB WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES THRU MIDDAY.

FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT A WK UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WIND MAX AT 250 MB. IN ADDITION A COOL FNT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO THIS EVENING. THUS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW. OVER
NERN CO MAY SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS BY LATE AFTN THRU THE EVENING
HOURS AS WELL. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHC LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
A DENVER TO AKRON LINE. AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS NERN CO.


.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DIGS
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY KEEPING A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THIS WEEKEND.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH
USHERS IN WARMER AIR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE BROAD TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO
WYOMING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO.
MODELS SHOWING THE DRY SLOT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW WILL FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND PULL COOLER AIR
INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH. THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES
ELONGATED. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN
ARIZONA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO SOMETIME TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL. THERE IS AT LEAST ONE SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...THOUGH TIMING IS DIFFERENT AMONG THE MODELS. FOR POPS...WILL
GO WITH 10-20 POPS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...ONCE AGAIN NOT REAL CONFIDENT ABOUT WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. RAP TRIES TO SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WNW BY SUNRISE WHILE
THE HRRR KEEPS THEM SSW THRU 15Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM MORE SSW
THRU 15Z. AFTER 15Z BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW WINDS BECOMING E OR
NE AS A LONGMENT ANTICYLONE DEVELOPS DUE TO NWLY WINDS COMING OFF
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE SO WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION FM 15Z-18Z. BY
EARLY AFTN WINDS LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE BREAKS DOWN AS WINDS BECOME
MORE NNW. FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE AFTER
SUNSET. BY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF
-SHRA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WITH CEILINGS
BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 8000 FT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ035-036-038-
039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...RPK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 157 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF NORFOLK WILL EDGE NORTH TO THE
DELMARVA COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE STALLING. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND FORCE THE LOW BACK OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN ITS EXPECTED TO TRUNDLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES
MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD
JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE
APPALACHIANS LATE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A MORNING IT HAS BEEN THUS FAR ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METRO
AREA. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NEW CASTLE
AND CHESTER COUNTIES FOR THE SMALLER RIVERS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW DELAWARE JUST SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH
MULTIPLE OTHERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT TOUCHED OFF ALL THESE HEAVY
STORMS HAS MOVED WELL WEST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME, AS ANOTHER
WAVE BEGINS TO COME ONSHORE NOW.

DO NOT THINK THIS WAVE WILL BE AS VOLATILE AS ITS PREDECESSOR
THOUGH THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA WITH MESOSCALE BANDING TAKING PLACE. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO HINT AT A BETTER TROWAL LIKE FEATURE ACCOMPANYING
THIS BANDING WHICH WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF LIFTING AND
POSSIBLY SLANTWISE CONVECTION TAKING PLACE, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY, PERHAPS DIMINISHING SOME
BY EVENING. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ANY
HEAVY RAIN COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH TIDE WOULD JUST ADD TO
DRAINAGE PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH AND MID 60S SOUTH, WHICH IS ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO START PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY START THE PROCESS
OF NUDGING THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OFF THE VA/NC COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE, BUT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW
INCHES SOUTH, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOO.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM LIKELY TO CHC IN THE NORTH...AND
FROM CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH, AND PERHAPS IN THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMBINATION OF THE WRF-NMMB AND GFS LOOKED TO FIT THE 500MB
PATTERN THE BEST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE BOTH MODELS
INITIALIZATION LOOKED A BIT TOO EAST IN THE ROCKIES. AT 925MB
AND 850MB THE GFS LOOKED BETTER.

IF THE SUITE OF LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUNS DEPICTED THE DARKEST DEPTHS
OF MORDOR, THE LAST TWO SOUNDING RUNS ARE OFFERING A BIT MORE
ENCOURAGEMENT FOR A HASTIER EXIT OF THIS ATLANTIC SYSTEM. MAYBE
NO NEED TO STATE THE OBVIOUS AS TO HOW PETULANT THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN TO FORECAST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PCPN HAS FAILED TO REACH ITS GEOGRAPHICAL GOAL, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO MEET THE IMPROVED TIMING ABOUT HALFWAY. THIS
PACKAGE IS CLOSER TO THE GFS TIMING, NOT AS OPTIMISTIC AS THE WRF-
NMMB FOR NOW OR AS DOUR AS THE UKMET.

ON SATURDAY, REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF PCPN, THERE IS GENERAL
MODELING CONSENSUS THAT THE LARGER SCALE FORCING AND FEATURES ARE
WANING. WE STILL HAVE A LLJ COMING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND THE FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST BELOW 700MB. WE ARE LACKING THE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS A SEMBLANCE OF 700MB SPEED MAX AND
FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE IS NOW LIMITED TO THE LOWER MID LEVELS.
THIS ALL POINTS TO LIGHTER PCPN OVERALL. HIEST POPS ARE TIED TO
WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK FCST LLVL THETA ADVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AS TO PCPN OCCURRING IS
WEAKER FARTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA.

THE CAVEAT REMAINS IN THE BOUNCINESS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CONVECTION (WHICH I UNDERSOLD FOR TODAY) SHOULD BE KNOCKING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. IT IS FAIRLY WARM AT 925MB AND 850MB, BUT THE FLOW IS
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD TEMPER MAX TEMPS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO STAT
GUIDANCE AND NOT MUCH REMOVED FROM OCEAN TEMPS. FAR FAR NORTH IF
MORE SUN IS PRESENT, WE MAY BE TOO LOW.

WE KNOCK PCPN CHANCES DOWN ANOTHER PEG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FCST
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET CONFINED TO A LOWER LEVEL IN OUR AIR MASS
AS ITS FORECAST TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PARTIALLY TIED TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT TOWARD THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AS
CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRESENT.

ON SUNDAY, POPS WERE CONFINED TO THE MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUN
CAN OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AS THE FLOW IS STILL
ONSHORE AND STILL RICH IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT
ON SUNDAY IS NOT THAT MUCH WEAKER THAN SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS LEANED
TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE.

LIKELY TOO MUCH WIND SUNDAY NIGHT (EXCEPT MAYBE FAR NORTHWEST) TO
RADIATE. EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT IN SKY COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES. COLUMBUS DAY IS PCPN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT WEAKENS IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEHIND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVE US A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
PSBLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
AS THE APPROACHING AIR MASS IS NOT THAT COOL. WEDNESDAY`S PCPN
CHANCES MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST BASED ON THE INITIALIZATION WEST.

A BETTER AND MORE CONFIDENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD COME AROUND
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY AT ABE AND RDG, WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, DUE
TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EMBEDDED PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT THE CONVEYOR BELTS
OF RAIN ABATE, AND CLOUDS START TO LIFT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, BUT THEIR SPEEDS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.


OUTLOOK..
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. SOME IFR
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ON SATURDAY AND ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHEST
SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH AIRPORTS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE
95 BY SUNDAY AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING FROM THE INTERSTATE
95 AIRPORTS SOUTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHEST SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE UPPER BAY WAS CANCELLED AS THE GUSTS HAVE
SETTLED BELOW 25 KNOTS, THOUGH AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE IS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSWHERE ON THE FORECAST
WATERS...EVEN IF THE WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 25 KT...SEAS ARE STILL
RUNNING HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE WEEKEND...SO THE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
AND LOWER DE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SUB
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO PART OR ALL
OF SUNDAY WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OUTLOOKED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ON THE OCEAN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS ARE
OUTLOOKED TO END DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITHIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS PUSHED FURTHER UP THE DELAWARE BAY
TO INCLUDE NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DE AND SALEM COUNTY, NJ. WE EXPECT
THE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING TO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE TIDES THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MONMOUTH AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES (SANDY HOOK AND THE RARITAN BAY) AS DEPARTURES
ARE WELL BELOW WHERE THEY NEED TO BE AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH TIDE
ACTUALLY HASN`T REACHED ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE PAST 4 HIGH TIDE
CYCLES AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES DID NOT SEE THOSE AREAS
REACHING MINOR TIDAL LEVELS.

WE CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...THIS TIME THROUGH THE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE OCEAN FRONT, AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. GIVEN THE CONTINUING ONSHORE
FLOW, BACK BAY AND INLET TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD BE GREATER THAN
AVERAGE.

ONLY AN INCREMENTAL EASING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AT THIS TIME. IF COASTAL FLOODING WERE TO
OCCUR, IT WOULD BE TOWARD THE LOW END OF MINOR.

THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ANOTHER PEG ON SUNDAY. THUS
THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST MAY NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. WE ARE NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE REST OF THE COAST WHERE THE
PRESENT ADVISORY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
REGARDLESS TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LESS ON SUNDAY. ALONG THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, LATEST MDL GUIDANCE KEEPS US CLOSE TO MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY CBOFS AND MDL
GUIDANCE KEEP CAMBRIDGE BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS, SO WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING PROBLEMS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 154 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF NORFOLK WILL EDGE NORTH TO THE
DELMARVA COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE STALLING. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND FORCE THE LOW BACK OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN ITS EXPECTED TO TRUNDLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES
MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD
JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE
APPALACHIANS LATE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A MORNING IT HAS BEEN THUS FAR ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METRO
AREA. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NEW CASTLE
AND CHESTER COUNTIES FOR THE SMALLER RIVERS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW DELAWARE JUST SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH
MULTIPLE OTHERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT TOUCHED OFF ALL THESE HEAVY
STORMS HAS MOVED WELL WEST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME, AS ANOTHER
WAVE BEGINS TO COME ONSHORE NOW.

DO NOT THINK THIS WAVE WILL BE AS VOLATILE AS ITS PREDECESSOR
THOUGH THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA WITH MESOSCALE BANDING TAKING PLACE. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO HINT AT A BETTER TROWAL LIKE FEATURE ACCOMPANYING
THIS BANDING WHICH WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF LIFTING AND
POSSIBLY SLANTWISE CONVECTION TAKING PLACE, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY, PERHAPS DIMINISHING SOME
BY EVENING. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ANY
HEAVY RAIN COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH TIDE WOULD JUST ADD TO
DRAINAGE PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH AND MID 60S SOUTH, WHICH IS ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO START PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY START THE PROCESS
OF NUDGING THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OFF THE VA/NC COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE, BUT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW
INCHES SOUTH, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOO.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM LIKELY TO CHC IN THE NORTH...AND
FROM CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH, AND PERHAPS IN THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMBINATION OF THE WRF-NMMB AND GFS LOOKED TO FIT THE 500MB
PATTERN THE BEST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE BOTH MODELS
INITIALIZATION LOOKED A BIT TOO EAST IN THE ROCKIES. AT 925MB
AND 850MB THE GFS LOOKED BETTER.

IF THE SUITE OF LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUNS DEPICTED THE DARKEST DEPTHS
OF MORDOR, THE LAST TWO SOUNDING RUNS ARE OFFERING A BIT MORE
ENCOURAGEMENT FOR A HASTIER EXIT OF THIS ATLANTIC SYSTEM. MAYBE
NO NEED TO STATE THE OBVIOUS AS TO HOW PETULANT THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN TO FORECAST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PCPN HAS FAILED TO REACH ITS GEOGRAPHICAL GOAL, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO MEET THE IMPROVED TIMING ABOUT HALFWAY. THIS
PACKAGE IS CLOSER TO THE GFS TIMING, NOT AS OPTIMISTIC AS THE WRF-
NMMB FOR NOW OR AS DOUR AS THE UKMET.

ON SATURDAY, REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF PCPN, THERE IS GENERAL
MODELING CONSENSUS THAT THE LARGER SCALE FORCING AND FEATURES ARE
WANING. WE STILL HAVE A LLJ COMING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND THE FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST BELOW 700MB. WE ARE LACKING THE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS A SEMBLANCE OF 700MB SPEED MAX AND
FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE IS NOW LIMITED TO THE LOWER MID LEVELS.
THIS ALL POINTS TO LIGHTER PCPN OVERALL. HIEST POPS ARE TIED TO
WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK FCST LLVL THETA ADVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AS TO PCPN OCCURRING IS
WEAKER FARTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA.

THE CAVEAT REMAINS IN THE BOUNCINESS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CONVECTION (WHICH I UNDERSOLD FOR TODAY) SHOULD BE KNOCKING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. IT IS FAIRLY WARM AT 925MB AND 850MB, BUT THE FLOW IS
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD TEMPER MAX TEMPS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO STAT
GUIDANCE AND NOT MUCH REMOVED FROM OCEAN TEMPS. FAR FAR NORTH IF
MORE SUN IS PRESENT, WE MAY BE TOO LOW.

WE KNOCK PCPN CHANCES DOWN ANOTHER PEG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FCST
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET CONFINED TO A LOWER LEVEL IN OUR AIR MASS
AS ITS FORECAST TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PARTIALLY TIED TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT TOWARD THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AS
CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRESENT.

ON SUNDAY, POPS WERE CONFINED TO THE MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUN
CAN OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AS THE FLOW IS STILL
ONSHORE AND STILL RICH IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT
ON SUNDAY IS NOT THAT MUCH WEAKER THAN SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS LEANED
TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE.

LIKELY TOO MUCH WIND SUNDAY NIGHT (EXCEPT MAYBE FAR NORTHWEST) TO
RADIATE. EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT IN SKY COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES. COLUMBUS DAY IS PCPN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT WEAKENS IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEHIND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVE US A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
PSBLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
AS THE APPROACHING AIR MASS IS NOT THAT COOL. WEDNESDAY`S PCPN
CHANCES MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST BASED ON THE INITIALIZATION WEST.

A BETTER AND MORE CONFIDENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD COME AROUND
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY AT ABE AND RDG, WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, DUE
TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EMBEDDED PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT THE CONVEYOR BELTS
OF RAIN ABATE, AND CLOUDS START TO LIFT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, BUT THEIR SPEEDS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.


OUTLOOK..
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. SOME IFR
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ON SATURDAY AND ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHEST
SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH AIRPORTS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE
95 BY SUNDAY AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING FROM THE INTERSTATE
95 AIRPORTS SOUTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHEST SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE UPPER BAY WAS CANCELLED AS THE GUSTS HAVE
SETTLED BELOW 25 KNOTS, THOUGH AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE IS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSWHERE ON THE FORECAST
WATERS...EVEN IF THE WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 25 KT...SEAS ARE STILL
RUNNING HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE WEEKEND...SO THE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
AND LOWER DE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SUB
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO PART OR ALL
OF SUNDAY WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OUTLOOKED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ON THE OCEAN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS ARE
OUTLOOKED TO END DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITHIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS PUSHED FURTHER UP THE DELAWARE BAY
TO INCLUDE NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DE AND SALEM COUNTY, NJ. WE EXPECT
THE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING TO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE TIDES THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MONMOUTH AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES (SANDY HOOK AND THE RARITAN BAY) AS DEPARTURES
ARE WELL BELOW WHERE THEY NEED TO BE AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH TIDE
ACTUALLY HASN`T REACHED ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE PAST 4 HIGH TIDE
CYCLES AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES DID NOT SEE THOSE AREAS
REACHING MINOR TIDAL LEVELS.

WE CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...THIS TIME THROUGH THE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE OCEAN FRONT, AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. GIVEN THE CONTINUING ONSHORE
FLOW, BACK BAY AND INLET TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD BE GREATER THAN
AVERAGE.

ONLY AN INCREMENTAL EASING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AT THIS TIME. IF COASTAL FLOODING WERE TO
OCCUR, IT WOULD BE TOWARD THE LOW END OF MINOR.

THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ANOTHER PEG ON SUNDAY. THUS
THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST MAY NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. WE ARE NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE REST OF THE COAST WHERE THE
PRESENT ADVISORY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
REGARDLESS TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LESS ON SUNDAY. ALONG THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, LATEST MDL GUIDANCE KEEPS US CLOSE TO MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY CBOFS AND MDL
GUIDANCE KEEP CAMBRIDGE BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS, SO WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING PROBLEMS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 1246 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF NORFOLK WILL EDGE NORTH TO THE
DELMARVA COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE STALLING. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND FORCE THE LOW BACK OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN ITS EXPECTED TO TRUNDLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES
MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD
JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE
APPALACHIANS LATE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A MORNING IT HAS BEEN THUS FAR ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METRO
AREA. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NEW CASTLE
AND CHESTER COUNTIES FOR THE SMALLER RIVERS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW DELAWARE JUST SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH
MULTIPLE OTHERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT TOUCHED OFF ALL THESE HEAVY
STORMS HAS MOVED WELL WEST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME, AS ANOTHER
WAVE BEGINS TO COME ONSHORE NOW.

DO NOT THINK THIS WAVE WILL BE AS VOLATILE AS ITS PREDECESSOR
THOUGH THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA WITH MESOSCALE BANDING TAKING PLACE. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO HINT AT A BETTER TROWAL LIKE FEATURE ACCOMPANYING
THIS BANDING WHICH WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF LIFTING AND
POSSIBLY SLANTWISE CONVECTION TAKING PLACE, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY, PERHAPS DIMINISHING SOME
BY EVENING. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ANY
HEAVY RAIN COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH TIDE WOULD JUST ADD TO
DRAINAGE PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH AND MID 60S SOUTH, WHICH IS ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO START PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY START THE PROCESS
OF NUDGING THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OFF THE VA/NC COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE, BUT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW
INCHES SOUTH, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOO.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM LIKELY TO CHC IN THE NORTH...AND
FROM CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH, AND PERHAPS IN THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMBINATION OF THE WRF-NMMB AND GFS LOOKED TO FIT THE 500MB
PATTERN THE BEST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE BOTH MODELS
INITIALIZATION LOOKED A BIT TOO EAST IN THE ROCKIES. AT 925MB
AND 850MB THE GFS LOOKED BETTER.

IF THE SUITE OF LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUNS DEPICTED THE DARKEST DEPTHS
OF MORDOR, THE LAST TWO SOUNDING RUNS ARE OFFERING A BIT MORE
ENCOURAGEMENT FOR A HASTIER EXIT OF THIS ATLANTIC SYSTEM. MAYBE
NO NEED TO STATE THE OBVIOUS AS TO HOW PETULANT THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN TO FORECAST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PCPN HAS FAILED TO REACH ITS GEOGRAPHICAL GOAL, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO MEET THE IMPROVED TIMING ABOUT HALFWAY. THIS
PACKAGE IS CLOSER TO THE GFS TIMING, NOT AS OPTIMISTIC AS THE WRF-
NMMB FOR NOW OR AS DOUR AS THE UKMET.

ON SATURDAY, REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF PCPN, THERE IS GENERAL
MODELING CONSENSUS THAT THE LARGER SCALE FORCING AND FEATURES ARE
WANING. WE STILL HAVE A LLJ COMING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND THE FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST BELOW 700MB. WE ARE LACKING THE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS A SEMBLANCE OF 700MB SPEED MAX AND
FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE IS NOW LIMITED TO THE LOWER MID LEVELS.
THIS ALL POINTS TO LIGHTER PCPN OVERALL. HIEST POPS ARE TIED TO
WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK FCST LLVL THETA ADVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AS TO PCPN OCCURRING IS
WEAKER FARTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA.

THE CAVEAT REMAINS IN THE BOUNCINESS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CONVECTION (WHICH I UNDERSOLD FOR TODAY) SHOULD BE KNOCKING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. IT IS FAIRLY WARM AT 925MB AND 850MB, BUT THE FLOW IS
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD TEMPER MAX TEMPS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO STAT
GUIDANCE AND NOT MUCH REMOVED FROM OCEAN TEMPS. FAR FAR NORTH IF
MORE SUN IS PRESENT, WE MAY BE TOO LOW.

WE KNOCK PCPN CHANCES DOWN ANOTHER PEG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FCST
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET CONFINED TO A LOWER LEVEL IN OUR AIR MASS
AS ITS FORECAST TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PARTIALLY TIED TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT TOWARD THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AS
CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRESENT.

ON SUNDAY, POPS WERE CONFINED TO THE MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUN
CAN OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AS THE FLOW IS STILL
ONSHORE AND STILL RICH IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT
ON SUNDAY IS NOT THAT MUCH WEAKER THAN SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS LEANED
TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE.

LIKELY TOO MUCH WIND SUNDAY NIGHT (EXCEPT MAYBE FAR NORTHWEST) TO
RADIATE. EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT IN SKY COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES. COLUMBUS DAY IS PCPN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT WEAKENS IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEHIND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVE US A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
PSBLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
AS THE APPROACHING AIR MASS IS NOT THAT COOL. WEDNESDAY`S PCPN
CHANCES MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST BASED ON THE INITIALIZATION WEST.

A BETTER AND MORE CONFIDENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD COME AROUND
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY AT ABE AND RDG, WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, DUE
TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EMBEDDED PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT THE CONVEYOR BELTS
OF RAIN ABATE, AND CLOUDS START TO LIFT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, BUT THEIR SPEEDS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.


OUTLOOK..
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. SOME IFR
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ON SATURDAY AND ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHEST
SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH AIRPORTS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE
95 BY SUNDAY AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING FROM THE INTERSTATE
95 AIRPORTS SOUTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHEST SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE UPPER BAY WAS CANCELLED AS THE GUSTS HAVE
SETTLED BELOW 25 KNOTS, THOUGH AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE IS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSWHERE ON THE FORECAST
WATERS...EVEN IF THE WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 25 KT...SEAS ARE STILL
RUNNING HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE WEEKEND...SO THE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
AND LOWER DE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SUB
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO PART OR ALL
OF SUNDAY WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OUTLOOKED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ON THE OCEAN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS ARE
OUTLOOKED TO END DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITHIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MONMOUTH AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES (SANDY HOOK AND THE RARITAN BAY) AS DEPARTURES
ARE WELL BELOW WHERE THEY NEED TO BE AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH TIDE
ACTUALLY HASN`T REACHED ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE PAST 4 HIGH TIDE
CYCLES AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES DID NOT SEE THOSE AREAS
REACHING MINOR TIDAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN, NOT CURRENTLY IN THE ADVISORY, IS THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE DELAWARE BAY. WITH ALL THE RAIN THAT FELL
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING, COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW,
MINOR THRESHOLDS MAY BE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL THE FRESH
WATER COMING DOWN THE RIVER AND OTHER TRIBUTARIES WILL NOT DRAIN
WELL.

WE CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...THIS TIME THROUGH
THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE OCEAN FRONT, AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. GIVEN THE CONTINUING ONSHORE
FLOW, BACK BAY AND INLET TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD BE GREATER THAN
AVERAGE.

ONLY AN INCREMENTAL EASING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AT THIS TIME. IF COASTAL FLOODING WERE TO
OCCUR, IT WOULD BE TOWARD THE LOW END OF MINOR.

THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ANOTHER PEG ON SUNDAY. THUS
THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST MAY NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. WE ARE NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE REST OF THE COAST WHERE THE
PRESENT ADVISORY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
REGARDLESS TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LESS ON SUNDAY. ALONG THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, LATEST MDL GUIDANCE KEEPS US CLOSE TO MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY CBOFS AND MDL
GUIDANCE KEEP CAMBRIDGE BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS, SO WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING PROBLEMS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 1044 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF NORFOLK WILL EDGE NORTH TO THE
DELMARVA COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE STALLING. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND FORCE THE LOW BACK OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN ITS EXPECTED TO TRUNDLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES
MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD
JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE
APPALACHIANS LATE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A MORNING IT HAS BEEN THUS FAR ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METRO
AREA. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NEW CASTLE
AND CHESTER COUNTIES FOR THE SMALLER RIVERS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW DELAWARE JUST SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH
MULTIPLE OTHERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT TOUCHED OFF ALL THESE HEAVY
STORMS HAS MOVED WELL WEST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME, AS ANOTHER
WAVE BEGINS TO COME ONSHORE NOW.

DO NOT THINK THIS WAVE WILL BE AS VOLATILE AS ITS PREDECESSOR
THOUGH THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA WITH MESOSCALE BANDING TAKING PLACE. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO HINT AT A BETTER TROWAL LIKE FEATURE ACCOMPANYING
THIS BANDING WHICH WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF LIFTING AND
POSSIBLY SLANTWISE CONVECTION TAKING PLACE, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY, PERHAPS DIMINISHING SOME
BY EVENING. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ANY
HEAVY RAIN COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH TIDE WOULD JUST ADD TO
DRAINAGE PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH AND MID 60S SOUTH, WHICH IS ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO START PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY START THE PROCESS
OF NUDGING THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OFF THE VA/NC COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE, BUT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW
INCHES SOUTH, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOO.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM LIKELY TO CHC IN THE NORTH...AND
FROM CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH, AND PERHAPS IN THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMBINATION OF THE WRF-NMMB AND GFS LOOKED TO FIT THE 500MB
PATTERN THE BEST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE BOTH MODELS
INITIALIZATION LOOKED A BIT TOO EAST IN THE ROCKIES. AT 925MB
AND 850MB THE GFS LOOKED BETTER.

IF THE SUITE OF LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUNS DEPICTED THE DARKEST DEPTHS
OF MORDOR, THE LAST TWO SOUNDING RUNS ARE OFFERING A BIT MORE
ENCOURAGEMENT FOR A HASTIER EXIT OF THIS ATLANTIC SYSTEM. MAYBE
NO NEED TO STATE THE OBVIOUS AS TO HOW PETULANT THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN TO FORECAST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PCPN HAS FAILED TO REACH ITS GEOGRAPHICAL GOAL, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO MEET THE IMPROVED TIMING ABOUT HALFWAY. THIS
PACKAGE IS CLOSER TO THE GFS TIMING, NOT AS OPTIMISTIC AS THE WRF-
NMMB FOR NOW OR AS DOUR AS THE UKMET.

ON SATURDAY, REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF PCPN, THERE IS GENERAL
MODELING CONSENSUS THAT THE LARGER SCALE FORCING AND FEATURES ARE
WANING. WE STILL HAVE A LLJ COMING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND THE FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST BELOW 700MB. WE ARE LACKING THE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS A SEMBLANCE OF 700MB SPEED MAX AND
FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE IS NOW LIMITED TO THE LOWER MID LEVELS.
THIS ALL POINTS TO LIGHTER PCPN OVERALL. HIEST POPS ARE TIED TO
WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK FCST LLVL THETA ADVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AS TO PCPN OCCURRING IS
WEAKER FARTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA.

THE CAVEAT REMAINS IN THE BOUNCINESS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CONVECTION (WHICH I UNDERSOLD FOR TODAY) SHOULD BE KNOCKING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. IT IS FAIRLY WARM AT 925MB AND 850MB, BUT THE FLOW IS
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD TEMPER MAX TEMPS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO STAT
GUIDANCE AND NOT MUCH REMOVED FROM OCEAN TEMPS. FAR FAR NORTH IF
MORE SUN IS PRESENT, WE MAY BE TOO LOW.

WE KNOCK PCPN CHANCES DOWN ANOTHER PEG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FCST
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET CONFINED TO A LOWER LEVEL IN OUR AIR MASS
AS ITS FORECAST TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PARTIALLY TIED TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT TOWARD THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AS
CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRESENT.

ON SUNDAY, POPS WERE CONFINED TO THE MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUN
CAN OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AS THE FLOW IS STILL
ONSHORE AND STILL RICH IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT
ON SUNDAY IS NOT THAT MUCH WEAKER THAN SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS LEANED
TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE.

LIKELY TOO MUCH WIND SUNDAY NIGHT (EXCEPT MAYBE FAR NORTHWEST) TO
RADIATE. EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT IN SKY COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES. COLUMBUS DAY IS PCPN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT WEAKENS IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEHIND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVE US A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
PSBLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
AS THE APPROACHING AIR MASS IS NOT THAT COOL. WEDNESDAY`S PCPN
CHANCES MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST BASED ON THE INITIALIZATION WEST.

A BETTER AND MORE CONFIDENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD COME AROUND
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY AT ABE AND RDG, WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, DUE
TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EMBEDDED PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT THE CONVEYOR BELTS
OF RAIN ABATE, AND CLOUDS START TO LIFT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, BUT THEIR SPEEDS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.


OUTLOOK..
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. SOME IFR
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ON SATURDAY AND ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHEST
SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH AIRPORTS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE
95 BY SUNDAY AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING FROM THE INTERSTATE
95 AIRPORTS SOUTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHEST SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE UPPER BAY WAS CANCELLED AS THE GUSTS HAVE
SETTLED BELOW 25 KNOTS, THOUGH AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE IS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSWHERE ON THE FORECAST
WATERS...EVEN IF THE WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 25 KT...SEAS ARE STILL
RUNNING HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE WEEKEND...SO THE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
AND LOWER DE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SUB
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO PART OR ALL
OF SUNDAY WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OUTLOOKED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ON THE OCEAN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS ARE
OUTLOOKED TO END DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITHIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...THIS TIME THROUGH THE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEAN
FRONT, THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, AND OUR SIDE OF RARITAN BAY. THERE
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. GIVEN THE CONTINUING
ONSHORE FLOW, BACK BAY AND INLET TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD BE GREATER
THAN AVERAGE.

ONLY AN INCREMENTAL EASING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE SATURDAY EXTENSION IS LOWEST AROUND
MIDDLESEX AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES AS THEY WILL SEE THE EASING OF THE
WINDS FIRST. OUR LOCAL PROCEDURE IS TAKING SANDY HOOK RIGHT AROUND
THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AT THIS TIME.
IF COASTAL FLOODING WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD BE TOWARD THE LOW END
OF MINOR.

THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ANOTHER PEG ON SUNDAY. THUS
THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST MAY NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. WE ARE NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE REST OF THE COAST WHERE THE
PRESENT ADVISORY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
REGARDLESS TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LESS ON SUNDAY. ALONG THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, LATEST MDL GUIDANCE KEEPS US CLOSE TO MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY CBOFS AND MDL
GUIDANCE KEEP CAMBRIDGE BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS, SO WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING PROBLEMS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1015 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CDT

EVENING UPDATE...

COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA
CLEARED EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERING IN FROM WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS ALLOWED WEST WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY...TO CALM IN
SPOTS. THE CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP...WHICH HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
TYPICALLY COOL SPOTS KRPJ AND KARR TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
GOING FORECAST LOWS WERE ALREADY BELOW MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT
DID TWEAK DOWN SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS A FEW MORE DEGREES TO OR
BELOW THE 18Z MAV. NORMAL COLD SPOTS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER VALLEY
CAN EXPECT UPPER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PRIMARILY LOW TO MID
40S EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT FOR AROUND 50 IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW NIGHT...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP WILL BE EVEN BETTER THAN
TONIGHT. CONCERNED THAT SOME AREAS COULD DIP TO THE MID 30S AND
POTENTIALLY SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON.

RC

//PREV DISCUSSION...
253 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG IT.  DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW
BRINGING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TUESDAY AND LINGERING SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM GREEN BAY TO AURORA TO
CHAMPAIGN AND IT WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THIS EVENING.  STILL ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BEHIND
IT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MAX CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG. THE BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO WI.  THAT BEING SAID A BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTN.  HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES. TEMPS WILL FALL
UNDER THE SHOWERS...BUT PLACES OUT WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A BIT
AS THE SUN BREAKS OUT AGAIN.

LOWERED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AND CLEAR SKIES.  WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE MIN
DEWPOINT...BUT WONDERING IF SOME ISOLATED AREAS WILL DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TOMORROW WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND CONTINUES EAST REACHING
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY LOOKS PLEASANT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLER BY THE LAKE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW.  IT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE BLOCKING LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
SLOWLY MOVING LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST.  IN GENERAL THE GFS
AND NAM ARE MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW...AND WILL
BASE THE FORECAST OFF OF THE SLOWER ECMWF PER THE WPC GUIDANCE
EVALUATION.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BUT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...AND THE LOW REMAINS NEGATIVELY STACKED
WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE LOW ALSO HAS JET
SUPPORT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY WHILE THE LOW
IS IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION.  THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY IS WEAK TUESDAY SO KEPT
JUST A CHANCE OF TS GOING...WITH AFTN CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 500
J/KG OR LESS.  MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...WITH PWATS OF
1-1.5 INCHES.

THE LOWS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.  GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A FEW DRY HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE LOW
WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE.

FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING A BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.  THEN BACK TO REALITY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

EXTENDED...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.  GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND WHERE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY.  FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A COOLING TREND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.  HOWEVER...THE JET REMAINS
OVERHEAD KEEPING THE MUCH COOLER AIR TO OUR NORTH.  IN GENERAL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN FOR LATE THIS WEEK...AND NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOOKING COLD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 19Z SUNDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

FROPA ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN PRECIP AXIS WELL EAST OF
THE TERMINALS...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING THIS EVENING. QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. STILL POTENTIAL TO SEE SPORADIC MID TEEN GUSTS EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WHILE TURNING
MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SHIFT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM CDT

A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE INCHES IN EASTERN
MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA. NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST....REACHING
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL VEER TO OUT
OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN ON ACROSS ONTARIO TO WESTERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TRS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN
CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 923 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CDT

EVENING UPDATE...

COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA
CLEARED EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERING IN FROM WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS ALLOWED WEST WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY...TO CALM IN
SPOTS. THE CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP...WHICH HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
TYPICALLY COOL SPOTS KRPJ AND KARR TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
GOING FORECAST LOWS WERE ALREADY BELOW MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT
DID TWEAK DOWN SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS A FEW MORE DEGREES TO OR
BELOW THE 18Z MAV. NORMAL COLD SPOTS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER VALLEY
CAN EXPECT UPPER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PRIMARILY LOW TO MID
40S EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT FOR AROUND 50 IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW NIGHT...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP WILL BE EVEN BETTER THAN
TONIGHT. CONCERNED THAT SOME AREAS COULD DIP TO THE MID 30S AND
POTENTIALLY SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON.

RC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
253 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG IT.  DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW
BRINGING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TUESDAY AND LINGERING SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM GREEN BAY TO AURORA TO
CHAMPAIGN AND IT WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THIS EVENING.  STILL ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BEHIND
IT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MAX CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG. THE BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO WI.  THAT BEING SAID A BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTN.  HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES. TEMPS WILL FALL
UNDER THE SHOWERS...BUT PLACES OUT WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A BIT
AS THE SUN BREAKS OUT AGAIN.

LOWERED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AND CLEAR SKIES.  WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE MIN
DEWPOINT...BUT WONDERING IF SOME ISOLATED AREAS WILL DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TOMORROW WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND CONTINUES EAST REACHING
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY LOOKS PLEASANT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLER BY THE LAKE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW.  IT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE BLOCKING LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
SLOWLY MOVING LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST.  IN GENERAL THE GFS
AND NAM ARE MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW...AND WILL
BASE THE FORECAST OFF OF THE SLOWER ECMWF PER THE WPC GUIDANCE
EVALUATION.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BUT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...AND THE LOW REMAINS NEGATIVELY STACKED
WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE LOW ALSO HAS JET
SUPPORT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY WHILE THE LOW
IS IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION.  THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY IS WEAK TUESDAY SO KEPT
JUST A CHANCE OF TS GOING...WITH AFTN CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 500
J/KG OR LESS.  MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...WITH PWATS OF
1-1.5 INCHES.

THE LOWS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.  GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A FEW DRY HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE LOW
WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE.

FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING A BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.  THEN BACK TO REALITY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

EXTENDED...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.  GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND WHERE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY.  FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A COOLING TREND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.  HOWEVER...THE JET REMAINS
OVERHEAD KEEPING THE MUCH COOLER AIR TO OUR NORTH.  IN GENERAL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN FOR LATE THIS WEEK...AND NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOOKING COLD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 19Z SUNDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

FROPA ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN PRECIP AXIS WELL EAST OF
THE TERMINALS...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING THIS EVENING. QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. STILL POTENTIAL TO SEE SPORADIC MID TEEN GUSTS EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WHILE TURNING
MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SHIFT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM CDT

A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE INCHES IN EASTERN
MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA. NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST....REACHING
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL VEER TO OUT
OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN ON ACROSS ONTARIO TO WESTERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TRS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ745...1 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 707 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
253 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG IT.  DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW
BRINGING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TUESDAY AND LINGERING SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM GREEN BAY TO AURORA TO
CHAMPAIGN AND IT WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THIS EVENING.  STILL ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BEHIND
IT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MAX CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG. THE BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO WI.  THAT BEING SAID A BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTN.  HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES. TEMPS WILL FALL
UNDER THE SHOWERS...BUT PLACES OUT WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A BIT
AS THE SUN BREAKS OUT AGAIN.

LOWERED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AND CLEAR SKIES.  WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE MIN
DEWPOINT...BUT WONDERING IF SOME ISOLATED AREAS WILL DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TOMORROW WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND CONTINUES EAST REACHING
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY LOOKS PLEASANT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLER BY THE LAKE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW.  IT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE BLOCKING LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
SLOWLY MOVING LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST.  IN GENERAL THE GFS
AND NAM ARE MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW...AND WILL
BASE THE FORECAST OFF OF THE SLOWER ECMWF PER THE WPC GUIDANCE
EVALUATION.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BUT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...AND THE LOW REMAINS NEGATIVELY STACKED
WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE LOW ALSO HAS JET
SUPPORT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY WHILE THE LOW
IS IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION.  THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY IS WEAK TUESDAY SO KEPT
JUST A CHANCE OF TS GOING...WITH AFTN CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 500
J/KG OR LESS.  MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...WITH PWATS OF
1-1.5 INCHES.

THE LOWS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.  GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A FEW DRY HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE LOW
WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE.

FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING A BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.  THEN BACK TO REALITY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

EXTENDED...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.  GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND WHERE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY.  FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A COOLING TREND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.  HOWEVER...THE JET REMAINS
OVERHEAD KEEPING THE MUCH COOLER AIR TO OUR NORTH.  IN GENERAL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN FOR LATE THIS WEEK...AND NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOOKING COLD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 19Z SUNDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

FROPA ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN PRECIP AXIS WELL EAST OF
THE TERMINALS...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING THIS EVENING. QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. STILL POTENTIAL TO SEE SPORADIC MID TEEN GUSTS EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WHILE TURNING
MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

RODRIGUEZ


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SHIFT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM CDT

A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE INCHES IN EASTERN
MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA. NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST....REACHING
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL VEER TO OUT
OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN ON ACROSS ONTARIO TO WESTERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TRS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ745...1 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 248 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO ADJUST
OVERNIGHT MINS DOWN JUST A BIT WITH A COUPLE OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER
SPOTS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE 50S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME PATCHY
FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE CHICAGO
URBAN HEAT ISLAND. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW EXTENSIVE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE IN 4000-5000 FT STRATUS BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH
HAD BEEN STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS HAS WEAKENED...WITH PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND WESTERN MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW LIFTING INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A BIT...AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE LOWER 50S...AND WITH
OTHERWISE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS) HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS JUST A BIT ESPECIALLY IN
A FEW OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

RAP/WRF/GFS TIME/HEIGHT DEPICTIONS AND SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP IN THE 4000-5000 FT LAYER LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS OF THE 295-300 K SURFACES INDICATE
NEUTRAL OR A SLIGHT DOWNGLIDE AT LEAST JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER...WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH AT 90-100 MB.
RAN SOME BACKWARDS HYSPLIT TRAJECTORY FORECASTS FOR THESE LEVELS
WHICH INDICATE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IL SOURCE REGION FOR PARCELS OVER
THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE THERE WAS SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT. GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A
LITTLE LOWER CLOUD COVER DOWNSTATE AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
EXPANSION TO THE NORTH...THOUGH AM A BIT SUSPECT OF THE SOLID
BKN/OVC INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS LEADS TO QUESTIONS
ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE TOO...AS MORE CLOUD COVER WOULD
YIELD LESS FOG. NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON FOG CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WI...
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF AN ISSUE IN THE WFO LOT CWA. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AWAY FROM CHICAGO AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL
MONITOR FURTHER FOR SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AERIAL DEVELOPMENT.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF PRECIP CHANCES WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT MOISTURE IN 900-800 MB
LAYER...DENOTED BY BETTER CU COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IL...WILL GRADUALLY STREAM NORTHWARD AND LIKELY RESULT
IN A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE BEEN SPURRED BY DEEP UPPER LOW
NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST TODAY. TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTH/NORTHEAST CAUSING MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR REGION TO AMPLIFY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN CWA WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND H9 TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT GOING
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...DESPITE 850 MB LEVEL
COOLING SLIGHTLY. MILDER START TO THE DAY WILL LIKELY HELP AS WELL.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE CLOUD COVER AS GUIDANCE STILL CONSISTENT IN
FAIRLY MOIST 900-800 MB LAYER...BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS TO MAINLY
TRANSITION TO SCT/BKN CU WHICH WILL DISSIPATE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO PRECLUDE LOWERING HIGHS.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ALL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH APPROACH OF
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST WILL
RESULT IN LOWS 55-60...EXCEPT MID 60S DOWNTOWN. DID NOT GO AS QUICK
IN GRIDS AS 12Z NAM RUN...BUT INSTEAD A BLEND WITH THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER GFS. FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED TO THE
NORTH...THROWING INTO DOUBT SHRA COVERAGE...BUT DECENT NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW FOR A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. HAVE
ADDED IN LOW END CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS NW HALF OF CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND THEN MAINTAINED HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING DAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WITH QUICKER TIMING...AS FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO
CLEAR CWA BY EARLY EVENING. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN...INSTABILITY IS ONLY MEAGER AT BEST...SO WILL LIMIT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO AFTERNOON HRS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO LOWER 70S
NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF OVERCAST...WHICH MAY
STILL BE TOO GENEROUS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS...WITH DEW POINTS
PLUNGING INTO UPPER 30S FROM THE WEST...WILL RUSH IN BEHIND FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM NORTHWEST. THEREFORE SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CLEAR. H8 TEMPS COOL TO MID SINGLE DIGITS BY
DAYBREAK...SO FAVORED COOL SPOTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY
DROP TO 40 OR EVEN UPPER 30S. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULDNT BE
MAJOR HINDRANCE TO RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY FOR THE EVENTS IN CHICAGO...JUST COOLER THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL...ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND LOWER 60S
ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

COOL AND QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER FAIRLY
DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACHING. TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW SHOWN ON 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEST OF CWA WILL PUT
US IN WARM SECTOR...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE...IN 60S...MAY BE TOO COOL IF CLOUD
COVER IS NOT TOO PROHIBITIVE...AS THERMAL PROFILES FROM GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN LOW TEENS AT 850MB AND MID TEENS AT 925 MB. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN
SET-UP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME THUNDER
IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND THEN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THAT
IS...ASSUMING LOW TRACKS AS PROGGED...WHICH IS NONETHELESS LIKELY TO
CHANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL SPAWN SURFACE LOW NOT
REACHING WEST COAST AND RAOB NETWORK UNTIL SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOW...SO FURTHER CHANGES ARE TO BE EXPECTED.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...AS LATEST ECMWF LIFTS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM INTO AREA FROM SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND GFS INDICATES POTENTIAL PRECIP WOULD
COME FROM SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM. WHICHEVER SCENARIO COMES CLOSER TO PASS...IT WILL FINALLY BE
DECIDELY MORE FALL LIKE...WITH H8 TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 0C RESULTING IN HIGHS IN 50S TO PERHAPS LOW 60S WEDS AND
THURS.

RC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY BROKEN CIGS 4000-5000 FT DEVELOPING
  OVERNIGHT.

* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE
  TEENS TURNING SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALLOWING SOME SITES TO GO CALM. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL AND
MAY START TO SEE SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME DEVELOPING CLOUDS IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTHWARD TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EXPECT THIS COVERAGE TO INCREASE. RFD
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING BKN COVERAGE THOUGH THE
REMAINING SITES WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR PERIODIC BKN SKIES LATER
TONIGHT. SHOULD THESE CLOUDS EXPAND BEFORE ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS
DEVELOP THEN VSBY WILL LIKELY STAY UP. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS
MORNING BUT THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MIXING DEVELOPS. EXPECT A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS...AND POSSIBLY 20
KT AT RFD...FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH MIDDAY BUT THE LAKE WILL TRY
AND TURN WINDS MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ORD/MDW/GYY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FOR THE EVENING WITH SPEEDS HOLDING NEAR 10 KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME 4000-5000 FT CLOUDS DEVELOPING...LOW
  CONFIDENCE IN BKN OR GREATER COVERAGE DEVELOPING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
  CHANGES.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. COLD FRONT/WIND
  SHIFT TO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
246 AM CDT

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACHING WESTERN HUDSON BAY
BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LARGE ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THAT REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE BEING PUSHED EASTWARD INTO MONDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL TREND
MORE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES EASTWARD LEADING TO FURTHER INCREASES IN WIND SPEED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE WITH SPEEDS PUSHING 30 KT FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AN INVERSION WILL LIMIT HIGHER GUSTS THOUGH THERE WILL BE
SPEEDS AROUND 35 KT JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY WEST AND NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS EASING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY ALLOWING SPEEDS
TO DROP OFF. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD MONDAY KEEPING WINDS
LIGHT BUT BRINGING THEM AROUND TO THE EAST. A SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST IS
EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS. THIS LOW LOOKS TO CROSS THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH.

MDB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1251 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO ADJUST
OVERNIGHT MINS DOWN JUST A BIT WITH A COUPLE OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER
SPOTS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE 50S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME PATCHY
FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE CHICAGO
URBAN HEAT ISLAND. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW EXTENSIVE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE IN 4000-5000 FT STRATUS BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH
HAD BEEN STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS HAS WEAKENED...WITH PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND WESTERN MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW LIFTING INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A BIT...AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE LOWER 50S...AND WITH
OTHERWISE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS) HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS JUST A BIT ESPECIALLY IN
A FEW OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

RAP/WRF/GFS TIME/HEIGHT DEPICTIONS AND SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP IN THE 4000-5000 FT LAYER LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS OF THE 295-300 K SURFACES INDICATE
NEUTRAL OR A SLIGHT DOWNGLIDE AT LEAST JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER...WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH AT 90-100 MB.
RAN SOME BACKWARDS HYSPLIT TRAJECTORY FORECASTS FOR THESE LEVELS
WHICH INDICATE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IL SOURCE REGION FOR PARCELS OVER
THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE THERE WAS SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT. GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A
LITTLE LOWER CLOUD COVER DOWNSTATE AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
EXPANSION TO THE NORTH...THOUGH AM A BIT SUSPECT OF THE SOLID
BKN/OVC INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS LEADS TO QUESTIONS
ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE TOO...AS MORE CLOUD COVER WOULD
YIELD LESS FOG. NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON FOG CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WI...
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF AN ISSUE IN THE WFO LOT CWA. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AWAY FROM CHICAGO AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL
MONITOR FURTHER FOR SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AERIAL DEVELOPMENT.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF PRECIP CHANCES WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT MOISTURE IN 900-800 MB
LAYER...DENOTED BY BETTER CU COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IL...WILL GRADUALLY STREAM NORTHWARD AND LIKELY RESULT
IN A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE BEEN SPURRED BY DEEP UPPER LOW
NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST TODAY. TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTH/NORTHEAST CAUSING MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR REGION TO AMPLIFY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN CWA WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND H9 TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT GOING
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...DESPITE 850 MB LEVEL
COOLING SLIGHTLY. MILDER START TO THE DAY WILL LIKELY HELP AS WELL.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE CLOUD COVER AS GUIDANCE STILL CONSISTENT IN
FAIRLY MOIST 900-800 MB LAYER...BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS TO MAINLY
TRANSITION TO SCT/BKN CU WHICH WILL DISSIPATE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO PRECLUDE LOWERING HIGHS.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ALL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH APPROACH OF
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST WILL
RESULT IN LOWS 55-60...EXCEPT MID 60S DOWNTOWN. DID NOT GO AS QUICK
IN GRIDS AS 12Z NAM RUN...BUT INSTEAD A BLEND WITH THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER GFS. FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED TO THE
NORTH...THROWING INTO DOUBT SHRA COVERAGE...BUT DECENT NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW FOR A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. HAVE
ADDED IN LOW END CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS NW HALF OF CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND THEN MAINTAINED HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING DAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WITH QUICKER TIMING...AS FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO
CLEAR CWA BY EARLY EVENING. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN...INSTABILITY IS ONLY MEAGER AT BEST...SO WILL LIMIT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO AFTERNOON HRS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO LOWER 70S
NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF OVERCAST...WHICH MAY
STILL BE TOO GENEROUS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS...WITH DEW POINTS
PLUNGING INTO UPPER 30S FROM THE WEST...WILL RUSH IN BEHIND FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM NORTHWEST. THEREFORE SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CLEAR. H8 TEMPS COOL TO MID SINGLE DIGITS BY
DAYBREAK...SO FAVORED COOL SPOTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY
DROP TO 40 OR EVEN UPPER 30S. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULDNT BE
MAJOR HINDRANCE TO RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY FOR THE EVENTS IN CHICAGO...JUST COOLER THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL...ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND LOWER 60S
ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

COOL AND QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER FAIRLY
DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACHING. TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW SHOWN ON 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEST OF CWA WILL PUT
US IN WARM SECTOR...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE...IN 60S...MAY BE TOO COOL IF CLOUD
COVER IS NOT TOO PROHIBITIVE...AS THERMAL PROFILES FROM GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN LOW TEENS AT 850MB AND MID TEENS AT 925 MB. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN
SET-UP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME THUNDER
IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND THEN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THAT
IS...ASSUMING LOW TRACKS AS PROGGED...WHICH IS NONETHELESS LIKELY TO
CHANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL SPAWN SURFACE LOW NOT
REACHING WEST COAST AND RAOB NETWORK UNTIL SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOW...SO FURTHER CHANGES ARE TO BE EXPECTED.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...AS LATEST ECMWF LIFTS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM INTO AREA FROM SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND GFS INDICATES POTENTIAL PRECIP WOULD
COME FROM SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM. WHICHEVER SCENARIO COMES CLOSER TO PASS...IT WILL FINALLY BE
DECIDELY MORE FALL LIKE...WITH H8 TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 0C RESULTING IN HIGHS IN 50S TO PERHAPS LOW 60S WEDS AND
THURS.

RC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY BROKEN CIGS 4000-5000 FT DEVELOPING
  OVERNIGHT.

* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE
  TEENS TURNING SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALLOWING SOME SITES TO GO CALM. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL AND
MAY START TO SEE SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME DEVELOPING CLOUDS IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTHWARD TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EXPECT THIS COVERAGE TO INCREASE. RFD
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING BKN COVERAGE THOUGH THE
REMAINING SITES WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR PERIODIC BKN SKIES LATER
TONIGHT. SHOULD THESE CLOUDS EXPAND BEFORE ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS
DEVELOP THEN VSBY WILL LIKELY STAY UP. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS
MORNING BUT THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MIXING DEVELOPS. EXPECT A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS...AND POSSIBLY 20
KT AT RFD...FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH MIDDAY BUT THE LAKE WILL TRY
AND TURN WINDS MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ORD/MDW/GYY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FOR THE EVENING WITH SPEEDS HOLDING NEAR 10 KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MDB


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME 4000-5000 FT CLOUDS DEVELOPING...LOW
  CONFIDENCE IN BKN OR GREATER COVERAGE DEVELOPING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
  CHANGES.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. COLD FRONT/WIND
  SHIFT TO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
106 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUES NORTH
TO HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE LAKE
THIS WEEKEND AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SYSTEM IS WEAK AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY IN RESULTING
IN QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER STRONG
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY AND TRACK...BUT
GROWING CONSENSUS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING WAVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 714 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 604 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MANY LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN DRY THOUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF DPVA ZONE WITH
THIS VORT MAX AND PROXIMITY TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF WESTERN
GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
NARROW ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHEARING NATURE TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHORT WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SHOULD LEAD TO
EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALONG
WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PWATS DIMINISHING INTO THE 1.25 RANGE AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND STRONGEST MID/UPPER
FORCING SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE...AND THIS TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED THIS
EVENING. HAVE MADE NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO
DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND WANING
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. 18Z RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AXIS OF 250-500
J/KG MUCAPES TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOUTHERN TAIL OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLD TSRA ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. DID MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE -RW POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE
OF LINGERING WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS POSSIBLY SUSTAINING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA HIGH AND DRY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
ROUNDS THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND TAKES AIM ON THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON TIMING/SPEED OF EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH
12Z GEM SLOWER VS 12Z GFS. ECMWF IS FLIP-FLOPPING SOLUTIONS WITH NEW
12Z RUN VERY SIMILAR IN SPEED/LOCATION TO 12Z GFS. CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH IN SLOWING DOWN ARRIVAL ON TUESDAY TO BACK OFF POPS IN THE
EAST...BUT TO INCREASE TO LOW END LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE MOST FAVORED PERIOD. BEYOND THIS...TIMING
ISSUES ALREADY NOTED WITH TROUGH WARRANTS HOLDING ONTO SLGT CHC/CHC
POPS WEDS/WEDS WITH HIGHEST EAST WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER
LONGER.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS AGREEING TO SOME
EXTENT ON 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0 C. AS A RESULT...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL SETTLE IN AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURS INTO FRI AS
WEAK WAVES ROTATE THROUGH TO CONTRIBUTE MSTR...LIFT AND SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE INVERSION HGTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SURFACE OBS MAINLY
VFR ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE SHOWS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS ALREADY
CLEARING NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. TIMING TOOL SUGGEST CLEARING INTO
KSBN BTWN 01 AND 02Z AND KFWA 05 TO 06Z. KEPT A -SHRA AT KSBN BUT
GIVEN SFC REPORTS DECIDED TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR. NOT CONFIDENT
THAT KFWA WILL EVEN SEE A SHRA SO KEPT VCSH THERE WITH WEAKENING
TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO NW
OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SUNDAY TO BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 257 AM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS LINE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT TO
BREEZY. AM EXPECTING THIS LINE TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
AROUND MIDNIGHT NORTHERN YUMA AND POSSIBLE NORTHERN DUNDY COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE ADDITION RAINFALL AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER THAT AREA...BRINGING THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY NORTH OF DENVER OVER
THOSE COUNTIES

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG TROUGH
WITH CLOSED CENTER JUST WEST OF FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. 120-125KT
H3 JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH NOSE OF JET
STREAK BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT HAS LINGERED OVER NW KS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH LATEST OBS TRENDS INDICATING THE FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
NORTH OF KGLD TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z WITH BEST
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT
BEST FORCING OVER OUR CWA WILL BE THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z-03Z.

FORECAST INITIATION MAY BE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CINH AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
LIMITING CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VIRGA
APPARENT ON RADAR...HOWEVER MAIN ACTIVITY LIKELY WONT GET GOING
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON TD WITH LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS LIKELY ORIGINATING OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE TD VALUES
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH CAPE WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER THE CWA. AT THIS POINT RAP SOLUTION OF 500-600
J/KG ML CAPE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE...THOUGH I WOULDNT RULE
OUT EASTERN LOCATIONS GETTING HIGHER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 00Z.
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO BORDER WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FORCING. BETTER
COVERAGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM
UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND 00Z FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INTO
A LINE OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTER BY THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY MOVING
EAST...WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEER
PROFILES IN PLACE. I STILL EXPECT WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH IF WE CAN GET AN ORGANIZED/DISCREET CELL THEN
SEVERE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

REGARDING WINDS...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WEST AND WITH LEE TROUGH STILL DEEPENING I EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH CRITERIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GFS/MAV GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS NEAR WARNING CONDITIONS...WHICH IS
PROBABLY TOO WINDY CONSIDERING EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS. UNLESS WE SEE
A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MIX WINDS FROM ABOUT 700-750MB I THINK WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 03Z THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND UPPER LOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE INITIAL FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE LOCATED JUST
WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. THE
ANTECEDENT PATTERN DID NOT RESULT IN A FRONTAL INTRUSION DEEP INTO
THE SOUTH AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
DEPARTING. AS A RESULT LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BRING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO PWAT VALUES ABOVE CLIMO OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. ON
MONDAY MORNING...GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED TO THE EAST OF
THE ECMWF WITH SURFACE LOW POSITION. USING A BLEND...A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCING AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WAS JUSTIFICATION
FOR INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH MUCH COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BEHIND IT OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. ONE CONCERN WITH
THE ABOVE IS THE CONTINUED SLOWING TREND WHICH COULD RESULT IN
GREATER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FURTHER WEST ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED.

FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO EMERGE IN MODELS WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES...ALBEIT TO A LESSER DEGREE THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THE GFS/ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS
THE ECMWF WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT RELATIVELY DRY
COLUMN SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. WINDS TONIGHT ARE A BIT
TRICKY DUE TO SUBTLETIES IN THE PRESSURE FIELD CAUSING GUSTY WINDS AT ONLY
KITR. IN GENERAL THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/NEAR
EARLY MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

FRIDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN CLOCKWISE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...JTL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 352 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

Potent upper system becoming stacked in recent hours over western
Nebraska with 3-hour pressure falls of near 6 mb near it as it
continues to move north-northeast. Water vapor imagery and 0Z upper
air data show a secondary upper wave over southern California that
reached western Arizona by 08Z. Band of convection over western and
central portions of Kansas continues to diminish in coverage and
intensity as forcing and instability wane.

Details of the today and tonight still not certain with this
wrapped-up system continuing to impact eastern Kansas through these
periods. The weakening trend in the convection should persist
through the remaining overnight hours and some precip could linger
just past dawn, but the bulk of the daytime should be dry with weak
forcing and drier air slowly working its way northeast through the
Central Plains behind the Pacific cold front. Just how far east the
front makes it by late afternoon is one challenge, as it may remain
over east central Kansas. Convergence along it is rather modest
though little inhibition will be left based on model soundings.
Convection could hold off until the evening hours when forcing
increases from the Southwest upper wave`s arrival as well as the
secondary cold front, and this may well be east of the CWA. Have
kept PoPs in the chance range in the far southeast, but trends in
the timing of the above features will need to be monitored. CAPE
around 1000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50 kt just east of the
Pacific front gives rise to at least some severe weather potential
in fast-moving storms. The secondary fronts` passage should end
precip by the early morning hours. Winds should be gusty through
much of the day in good mixing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

Saturday through Sunday will be a dry period in the wake of the
upper trough moving off into the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure
will keep an east to northeast wind on Saturday then becoming
southeast by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be near normal with
highs in the lower 70s and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

An upper level trough will move into the Rockies Sunday night and
Monday with a stronger lobe of energy moving out in to the plains.
Moisture transport increases Sunday night as the low level jet
cranks up, initially focused into the High Plains then into central
Kansas after midnight. Models are in agreement with sweeping a cold
front through eastern Kansas Monday night, with the GFS a little
faster than the ECMWF. ML CAPE of 500 to 1000 J/kg is forecast ahead
of the boundary over eastern Kansas. 0-6 KM shear around 45 kts is
forecast. Could see a few strong to severe storms especially through
early evening. Strong winds and hail will be the main hazards.
Behind the front temperatures cool off for Tuesday with highs
ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Timing differences show up Wednesday and Thursday between the GFS
and the ECMWF with the GFS being more progressive. The GEFS mean is
slower and somewhat similar to the ECMWF. Lower confidence at the
end of the period due to model uncertainty. Thus will lean toward a
slower progression of energy moving out into the plains similar to
the ECMWF. Only some low pops are expected Wednesday night with a
dry forecast for Thursday. Temperatures both days will be cooler
with highs only in the 50s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

Recent satellite image shows band of VFR clouds associated with a
line of thunderstorms tracking eastward into the region. Latest
guidance indicates showers should dissipate before reaching
KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with residual moisture and clouds remaining.
Sounding profilers from the RAP and NAM are consistent in MVFR
cigs developing aft 10Z at KTOP/KFOE. Strong southerly winds
through the afternoon gradually mix cigs to VFR near 20Z.
Increasing southerly winds overnight above 10 kts will peak aoa 15
kts aft 14z at sites with gusts up to 28 kts possible. As the cold
front approaches winds begin to veer to southwest and west falling
blo 10 kts aft 00z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1150 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS LINE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT TO
BREEZY. AM EXPECTING THIS LINE TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
AROUND MIDNIGHT NORTHERN YUMA AND POSSIBLE NORTHERN DUNDY COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE ADDITION RAINFALL AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER THAT AREA...BRINGING THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY NORTH OF DENVER OVER
THOSE COUNTIES

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG TROUGH
WITH CLOSED CENTER JUST WEST OF FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. 120-125KT
H3 JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH NOSE OF JET
STREAK BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT HAS LINGERED OVER NW KS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH LATEST OBS TRENDS INDICATING THE FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
NORTH OF KGLD TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z WITH BEST
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT
BEST FORCING OVER OUR CWA WILL BE THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z-03Z.

FORECAST INITIATION MAY BE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CINH AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
LIMITING CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VIRGA
APPARENT ON RADAR...HOWEVER MAIN ACTIVITY LIKELY WONT GET GOING
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON TD WITH LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS LIKELY ORIGINATING OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE TD VALUES
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH CAPE WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER THE CWA. AT THIS POINT RAP SOLUTION OF 500-600
J/KG ML CAPE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE...THOUGH I WOULDNT RULE
OUT EASTERN LOCATIONS GETTING HIGHER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 00Z.
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO BORDER WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FORCING. BETTER
COVERAGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM
UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND 00Z FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INTO
A LINE OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTER BY THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY MOVING
EAST...WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEER
PROFILES IN PLACE. I STILL EXPECT WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH IF WE CAN GET AN ORGANIZED/DISCREET CELL THEN
SEVERE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

REGARDING WINDS...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WEST AND WITH LEE TROUGH STILL DEEPENING I EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH CRITERIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GFS/MAV GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS NEAR WARNING CONDITIONS...WHICH IS
PROBABLY TOO WINDY CONSIDERING EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS. UNLESS WE SEE
A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MIX WINDS FROM ABOUT 700-750MB I THINK WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 03Z THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND UPPER LOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

A SECONDARY VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO FRIDAY
NIGHT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING. LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY AND
RAISED HIGHS AS MUCH AS ISC ALLOWED. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZES
IN THE GREAT BASIN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT OUT
AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AND SUNDAY BUT INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
MAIN ENERGY APPROACHES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH MAY REQUIRE HIGHLIGHTS. MODELS IN
VERY POOR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM PAST MONDAY...THE
ECMWF MUCH SLOWER TO KICK IT OUT COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. WINDS TONIGHT ARE A BIT
TRICKY DUE TO SUBTLETIES IN THE PRESSURE FIELD CAUSING GUSTY WINDS AT ONLY
KITR. IN GENERAL THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/NEAR
EARLY MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

FRIDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN CLOCKWISE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 1142 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2013

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

Main focus for the start term period is on the large storm system
currently over the Rockies and what impacts it will have on the area
as it progresses northeastward toward the Northern Plains. The mid-level
low associated with this system dug southward along the Pacific
coastline, sinking all the way into southern California early this
morning before finally pivoting northeastward toward the Four
Corners region this afternoon. As of 20z, the surface low was
situated over eastern Colorado with a decent pressure gradient
setting up across much of the state of Kansas. As a result, breezy
southeasterly winds allowed for decent waa into the region with
afternoon temperatures peaking above the seasonal normals, into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Overnight, the mid-level low will quickly eject northeast through
Colorado and into South Dakota by Friday afternoon. With both the
surface and mid-level lows tracking north of the cwa, models show the
tight pressure gradient remaining in place over the area tonight and
through the day on Friday. As a result, expect winds to weaken only
a bit over eastern Kansas tonight with breezy winds persisting
across central Kansas. Another day of modest waa is expected on
Friday as southerly winds should be sustained at 10-15mph with gusts
possibly upwards of 25-30mph. Afternoon highs look to once again be
around 10F degrees above the seasonal normals, into the upper
70s/lower 80s. As this system progresses into the Northern Plains
during the afternoon, models show a decent dryline moving eastward
into central Kansas and stretching from south central to northeast
Kansas by early Friday evening. Models show dewpoint temperatures
across central Kansas dropping into the lower 40s behind this
dryline. This dry air, combined with the gusty southerly winds could
result in RH values dropping down into the mid 20 percent range.

Models continue to highlight the potential for a few stray showers
and isolated storms to develop Friday morning, but this potential
looks to be very low. While there should be some weak isentropic
lift present over the area in the morning, there will be very
little in the way of moisture to support this precipitation as the
current water vapor loop shows a weak mid-level ridge over the
Gulf of Mexico, limiting the amount of moisture that can be
advected northward into the area. Model soundings show any
isolated thunderstorms that are able to develop should be elevated
in nature. 12z model runs seem to be bringing the associated cold
front a bit faster into the region than in previous runs, having
it enter into north central Kansas by early to mid afternoon and
nearly bisecting the cwa by around 00z. However, expect any
precipitation that develops with this system to hold off until
late afternoon or early evening, so only have scattered slight
chance pops across the cwa during the day on Friday.

By Friday evening, that well-defined dry line should be oriented
roughly from Lawrence to Burlington, give or take 50 miles east or
west. There seems to be a good chance for thunderstorms to develop
along this dry line near or after 5 PM. There is a lot of wind
energy associated with this storm system and deep layer wind shear
will be strong. There should also be a narrow band of instability
along and immediately ahead of the dry line, probably on the order
of 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. All of these factors suggest a
chance for a couple of strong to severe storms to develop with the
primary uncertainty being whether or not updrafts in the low CAPE
high shear environment will have enough residence time in the
unstable airmass to become particularly strong. If strong storms
were to develop, localized damaging winds would seem to be the
main severe threat although hail would be possible if supercell
structures develop. The tornado potential is quite low at this
time owing to limited directional shear and uncertainty regarding
convective strength.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

The mid to long term forecast is active as a series of upper level
storm systems will move through the Plains states. The Friday
storm system and cold front will not have much southward
progression to it, and this will allow temperatures to remain
seasonal through the weekend with highs in the lower 70s and lows
in the 40s. All told, the weekend will be quiet and pleasant.

However, the limited southward progression of the front will allow
plenty of deep moisture to pool south of the front as another
storm system takes shape and upper level flow becomes
southwesterly. A strong short wave trough will move into the
Plains on Monday while surface low pressure develops in western
Kansas and the moist airmass surges northward. Models are in good
agreement regarding all of these features in both magnitude and
timing with recent model performance suggesting that the GFS and
ECMWF may be just a bit slow with frontal progression if anything.
All of these factors suggest that a broad weakly to moderately
unstable warm sector will develop into central and eastern Kansas
by late Monday as the storm system moves into the region. Wind
shear in the deep layers and low levels will be quite strong with
early indications of 50 kts of 0-6 shear and 200+ m2/s2 of low
level helicity. The main uncertainty regarding severe weather
potential late Monday is just how unstable the warm sector will
become as there could be fairly widespread cloud cover and
precipitation out ahead of the main system. If decent instability
can develop, it could lead to a round of severe weather across the
Plains in conjunction with the advancing dry line/cold front. Will
need to closely monitor this period as details become more evident.

Model agreement beyond Monday night is quite poor as GFS solutions
favor cold northerly flow aloft while the ECMWF keeps the upper
trough axis to the west with a continuous stream of disturbances
impacting the area. What can be said with some confidence for this
forecast is that temperatures will be below normal for Tuesday and
Wednesday...and probably into Thursday...but whether we stay dry
through the end of the week or see another shot of precip by late
Wednesday remains in question.

Barjenbruch

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

Recent satellite image shows band of VFR clouds associated with a
line of thunderstorms tracking eastward into the region. Latest
guidance indicates showers should dissipate before reaching
KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with residual moisture and clouds remaining.
Sounding profilers from the RAP and NAM are consistent in MVFR
cigs developing aft 10Z at KTOP/KFOE. Strong southerly winds
through the afternoon gradually mix cigs to VFR near 20Z.
Increasing southerly winds overnight above 10 kts will peak aoa 15
kts aft 14z at sites with gusts up to 28 kts possible. As the cold
front approaches winds begin to veer to southwest and west falling
blo 10 kts aft 00z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Bowen







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 711 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER MAINE. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NORFOLK IS
STALLED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR BALTIMORE METRO PER RADAR
TRENDS AND LOWER FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR CITY OF BALTIMORE. ONE TO TWO
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WILL NEED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THE INCOMING PLUME WILL
SHIFT SOUTH OVER AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MD AND THE ERN WV PANHANDLE
THAT RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 07Z...1010MB SFC LOW STALLED ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY (AND SATURDAY). MOST
MODERATE RAIN HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE...WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OVER ST MARYS COUNTY. AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA (LESS RAIN FOR THE SWRN
ZONES ON THE WRAP AROUND OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH DRIZZLE IS STILL
POSSIBLE).

CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NRN COUNTIES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON AS
3-4 INCHES FELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE
CURRENT BREAK IN RAIN OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST DECIDED TO
DELAY. HRRR AND NAM/GFS HIGHLIGHT THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP TABS ON
RAIN AND RIVER TRENDS. FURTHERMORE...THE NAM PROGS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
BE MUCH MORE ELY (WITH GREATER UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT) OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE DIURNAL AGAIN TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SOCKED IN AND
DRIZZLE/RAIN...MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOW THAT THE LOW IS CLOSER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED...ALLOWING MID/UPR LEVELS
TO DRY OUT. PRECIP RATES SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRIZZLE COME SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPR 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS IS A FAIRLY UNIQUE SYNOPTIC PATTERN - THE HIGH TO THE N WL
HOLD THE LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC CST SAT. THIS WL KEEP RGN UNDER
CONT CLDY SKIES W/ CHCS OF RA. RAFL SHOULD NOWHERE NEAR BE AS HVY AS
THU THO. HIGHS IN THE LM60S. LOWS SAT NGT IN 50S.

IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGH SHOULD PUSH S ON SUN...WHICH WOULD HV THE
PTNL TO BRING SOME SUNSHINE TO THE MID ATLC...BUT I`M SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL. GFS PORTAYS THIS AS A CAD PATTERN...SO WL MAINTAIN XTNSV
CLD CVR. IF IT RAINS QPF WL MOST LKLY BE LGT.

XTND MDLS INDICATE AN EROSION OF THE DEEP LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
OCCUR ERLY IN THE NEW WK...BUT THERE WON`T BE A MECHANISM LK A
STRONG FNT TO SCOUR OUT ALL THE MOISTURE. THERE`LL PRBLY STILL BE
A DECENT AMT OF CLD CVR...ESPECIALLY AFTR MID MNRG.

BOTH ECM AND GFS SHOW A SHORT WV EJECTING OUT OF A SWRN U.S. LONG
WV DURG THE MID PART OF NEXT WK...LKLY REACHING THE E CST NEXT
THU. THUS POPS ARE IN THE FCST THEN. FOR THE NEW WK HIGHS SHOULD GNRLY
BE 65-70. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STALLED ALONG THE COAST AT THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH
TODAY. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR WITH SOME
LIFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. KCHO MAY
REMAIN MVFR AS IT IS IN THE WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE LOW. LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE PREVAILS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR
MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE INCL KMRB.

IN THE XTND...XTSV CLD CVR XPCTD TO RMN OVR THE MID ALTC RGN THIS
WKND...PSBLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. SOME IMPRVMNT IS XPCTD DURG THE
1ST PART OF THE NEW WK.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS STALLED ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AND
WILL PERSIST ALL DAY. FLOW WILL REMAIN NNELY WITH THOUGH THE GUST
POTENTIAL HAS DROPPED TO 25 KT OR LESS. SCA UP FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC (WHICH WILL SEE UP TO 15 KT WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT.) SOME GUSTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A THUNDERSTORM IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE SRN MD WATERS...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE NORM TODAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY HAS BEEN XTND INTO SAT FOR ALL XCPT THE UPR
PTMC. MAJORITY OF THE WKND LOOKING CLDY W/ PDS OF RA - NOT THE
BEST WX FOR BOATING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION ON
THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY SOUTH FROM ANNAPOLIS AND THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC. THE LESSER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.
AS OF NOW IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT ALL LEVELS WILL BE JUST BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND ANY
NECESSARY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE DELIVERED WITH AS MUCH
LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE PREFERRED HIGH TIDE
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ON THE MD WRN SHORE SOUTH FROM ANNAPOLIS AND
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004>007-011.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/JACKSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 356 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER MAINE. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NORFOLK IS
STALLED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1010MB SFC LOW STALLED ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY (AND SATURDAY). MOST
MODERATE RAIN HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE...WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OVER ST MARYS COUNTY. AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA (LESS RAIN FOR THE SWRN
ZONES ON THE WRAP AROUND OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH DRIZZLE IS STILL
POSSIBLE).

CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NRN COUNTIES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON AS
3-4 INCHES FELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE
CURRENT BREAK IN RAIN OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST DECIDED TO
DELAY. HRRR AND NAM/GFS HIGHLIGHT THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP TABS ON
RAIN AND RIVER TRENDS. FURTHERMORE...THE NAM PROGS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
BE MUCH MORE ELY (WITH GREATER UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT) OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE DIURNAL AGAIN TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SOCKED IN AND
DRIZZLE/RAIN...MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOW THAT THE LOW IS CLOSER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

SYSTEM BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED...ALLOWING MID/UPR LEVELS
TO DRY OUT. PRECIP RATES SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRIZZLE COME SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPR 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THIS IS A FAIRLY UNIQUE SYNOPTIC PATTERN - THE HIGH TO THE N WL
HOLD THE LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC CST SAT. THIS WL KEEP RGN UNDER
CONT CLDY SKIES W/ CHCS OF RA. RAFL SHOULD NOWHERE NEAR BE AS HVY AS
THU THO. HIGHS IN THE LM60S. LOWS SAT NGT IN 50S.

IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGH SHOULD PUSH S ON SUN...WHICH WOULD HV THE
PTNL TO BRING SOME SUNSHINE TO THE MID ATLC...BUT I`M SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL. GFS PORTAYS THIS AS A CAD PATTERN...SO WL MAINTAIN XTNSV
CLD CVR. IF IT RAINS QPF WL MOST LKLY BE LGT.

XTND MDLS INDICATE AN EROSION OF THE DEEP LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
OCCUR ERLY IN THE NEW WK...BUT THERE WON`T BE A MECHANISM LK A
STRONG FNT TO SCOUR OUT ALL THE MOISTURE. THERE`LL PRBLY STILL BE
A DECENT AMT OF CLD CVR...ESPECIALLY AFTR MID MNRG.

BOTH ECM AND GFS SHOW A SHORT WV EJECTING OUT OF A SWRN U.S. LONG
WV DURG THE MID PART OF NEXT WK...LKLY REACHING THE E CST NEXT
THU. THUS POPS ARE IN THE FCST THEN. FOR THE NEW WK HIGHS SHOULD GNRLY
BE 65-70. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE STALLED ALONG THE COAST AT THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH
TODAY. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR WITH SOME
LIFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. KCHO MAY
REMAIN MVFR AS IT IS IN THE WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE LOW. LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE PREVAILS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR
MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE INCL KMRB.

IN THE XTND...XTSV CLD CVR XPCTD TO RMN OVR THE MID ALTC RGN THIS
WKND...PSBLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. SOME IMPRVMNT IS XPCTD DURG THE
1ST PART OF THE NEW WK.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE HAS STALLED ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AND
WILL PERSIST ALL DAY. FLOW WILL REMAIN NNELY WITH THOUGH THE GUST
POTENTIAL HAS DROPPED TO 25 KT OR LESS. SCA UP FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC (WHICH WILL SEE UP TO 15 KT WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT.) SOME GUSTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A THUNDERSTORM IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE SRN MD WATERS...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE NORM TODAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY HAS BEEN XTND INTO SAT FOR ALL XCPT THE UPR
PTMC. MAJORITY OF THE WKND LOOKING CLDY W/ PDS OF RA - NOT THE
BEST WX FOR BOATING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LEVELS ARE AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION ON
THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY SOUTH FROM ANNAPOLIS AND THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC. THE LESSER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.
AS OF NOW IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT ALL LEVELS WILL BE JUST BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND ANY
NECESSARY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE DELIVERED WITH AS MUCH
LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE PREFERRED HIGH TIDE
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ON THE MD WRN SHORE SOUTH FROM ANNAPOLIS AND
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC.

&&

.HYDRO...
RAINFALL AS OF 1AM IS AVAILABLE IN THE LATEST PNSLWX. AREAS WITH
OVER THREE INCHES OF RAIN FROM TODAY INCLUDE THE ERN WV
PANHANDLE...WEST-CENTRAL MD...AND ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(RAPPAHANNOCK AND MADISON COUNTIES). STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THESE
AREAS HAVE SEEN RAPID RISES...BUT AS OF 3 AM...NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 110 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. FORECAST
BECOMES CHALLENGING OVERNIGHT WITH FOG CONCERNS...AS MOISTURE
ATTEMPTS TO STREAM IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...COULD EASILY
JUST SEE A MID DECK OF CLOUDS ARRIVE...WHICH WOULD MITIGATE THE FOG
THREAT. ALSO...THE GRADIENT IS A BIT STRONGER TONIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH SOME MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ERIE...HAVE
ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG MENTION AT DTW...WITH IFR FOG AT YIP. IF FOG
DOES DEVELOP...A LIFTING STRATUS DECK COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...BUT PREFERENCE IS FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOG TRENDS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING THIS MORNING AS A FEW OBSERVATION
SITES HAVE EVEN IMPROVED ON VISIBILITIES. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
EXPANSION OF THE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOWER AND THE
EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA. RUC13 SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SUPPORTS A RIPENING NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT AS DAWN
APPROACHES. WILL TOE THE LINE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAS TO PATCHY
DENSE WORDING THE EVENING CREW INTRODUCED.

ANOTHER DAY OF PROTOTYPICAL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. LITTLE TO NO THERMAL
ADVECTIONS IN STATIC NEAR TERM REGIME SUPPORTS A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH FULL
INSOLATION WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO ON MOS CONSENSUS.

SURFACE TRAJECTORIES TONIGHT SUGGESTS SEMICH WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LIGHT EASTERLY DRAINAGE OFF OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. COMPROMISED ON LOWS...UPPER
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR THE DETROIT URBAN HEAT ISLAND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW NOW
ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS INTO
MANITOBA ON SATURDAY. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES HOWEVER SHOW A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE OVER WRN MONTANA. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
INTO MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN POTENTIAL
VORTICITY. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES SAT AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT AND BETTER MIXING DEPTHS MAY ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S. A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL HOWEVER
ADVECT SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SE MI FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SAT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S EAST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS IN TERMS OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FGEN IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GOOD AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE SAT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET MAX ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SAT NIGHT...WHICH CAUSES THE DEEP LAYER FGEN TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
FRONT TRAVERSES SE MI. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF JUST CHANCE TYPE POPS
SAT NIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SUN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUN.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO
CARVE OUT ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHIFT IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN TOWARD A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US MID LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSIVE. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...MID LEVEL WAVES SHOULD LIFT OUT OF
THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARD MID
WEEK. DESPITE BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE WEEK...E-NE LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SUSTAIN COOLER
CONDITIONS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MARINE...

IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORNING FOG
MAY HAMPER NAVIGATION IN THE 6AM TO 10AM TIMEFRAME THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...WINDS AND WAVES WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH 10 TO 25 KNOT SOUTH WINDS. THE LONG FETCH ALONG
LAKE HURON WILL REALIZE WAVE POTENTIAL IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE IN
NORTHERN LAKE HURON...EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
LAKE. FOLLOWING THAT FEATURE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. NEARSHORE AREAS WILL
REMAIN PROTECTED FROM HIGH WINDS AND WAVES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WHERE A HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 648 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...BEHAVING
IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO THE FOG OBSERVED YESTERDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT AN INFLUENCE FOR ONE MORE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT TONIGHT
MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOG TRENDS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING THIS MORNING AS A FEW OBSERVATION
SITES HAVE EVEN IMPROVED ON VISIBILITIES. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
EXPANSION OF THE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOWER AND THE
EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA. RUC13 SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SUPPORTS A RIPENING NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT AS DAWN
APPROACHES. WILL TOE THE LINE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAS TO PATCHY
DENSE WORDING THE EVENING CREW INTRODUCED.

ANOTHER DAY OF PROTOTYPICAL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. LITTLE TO NO THERMAL
ADVECTIONS IN STATIC NEAR TERM REGIME SUPPORTS A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH FULL
INSOLATION WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO ON MOS CONSENSUS.

SURFACE TRAJECTORIES TONIGHT SUGGESTS SEMICH WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LIGHT EASTERLY DRAINAGE OFF OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. COMPROMISED ON LOWS...UPPER
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR THE DETROIT URBAN HEAT ISLAND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW NOW
ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS INTO
MANITOBA ON SATURDAY. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES HOWEVER SHOW A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE OVER WRN MONTANA. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
INTO MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN POTENTIAL
VORTICITY. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES SAT AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT AND BETTER MIXING DEPTHS MAY ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S. A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL HOWEVER
ADVECT SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SE MI FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SAT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S EAST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS IN TERMS OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FGEN IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GOOD AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE SAT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET MAX ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SAT NIGHT...WHICH CAUSES THE DEEP LAYER FGEN TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
FRONT TRAVERSES SE MI. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF JUST CHANCE TYPE POPS
SAT NIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SUN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUN.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO
CARVE OUT ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHIFT IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN TOWARD A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US MID LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSIVE. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...MID LEVEL WAVES SHOULD LIFT OUT OF
THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARD MID
WEEK. DESPITE BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE WEEK...E-NE LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SUSTAIN COOLER
CONDITIONS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MARINE...

IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORNING FOG
MAY HAMPER NAVIGATION IN THE 6AM TO 10AM TIMEFRAME THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...WINDS AND WAVES WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH 10 TO 25 KNOT SOUTH WINDS. THE LONG FETCH ALONG
LAKE HURON WILL REALIZE WAVE POTENTIAL IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE IN
NORTHERN LAKE HURON...EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
LAKE. FOLLOWING THAT FEATURE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. NEARSHORE AREAS WILL
REMAIN PROTECTED FROM HIGH WINDS AND WAVES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WHERE A HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 451 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT UPR RDG
DOMINATING THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF TROF OVER THE W. AT
THE SFC...HI PRES EXTENDS FM NEW ENGLAND TO LOWER MI...WITH SW FLOW
ARND THIS RDG DOMINATING UPR MI. IN CONCERT WITH VERY DRY LO-MID LVL
AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB/MPX RAOBS...THE CWA IS ENJOYING ANOTHER
VERY PLEASANT OCT DAY DESPITE A STREAM OF SCT-BKN CI/CS IN THE SW
FLOW ALF BTWN THE ERN RDG/WRN TROF. MORE CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER NW MN
AND ONTARIO ALONG A STNRY FNT EXTENDING NE FM LO PRES IN THE NRN
PLAINS...BUT THESE CLDS ARE MAKING NO PROGRESS TOWARD THE CWA AND
THE DOMINATING UPR RDG. THERE WAS SOME FOG OVER INTERIOR E AND
SCENTRAL UPR MI AS WELL AS WI/LOWER MI THIS MRNG...BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING HAS DSPTD THIS FOG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU FRI REMAIN TEMPS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG TNGT AS THE UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS ARE FCST TO
REMAIN DOMINANT.

TNGT...EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL AGAIN TNGT CLOSER TO FLATTER PRES
GRADIENT AND CORE OF DRY AIR WITH PWAT FCST AOB 0.50 INCH EXCEPT
OVER THE FAR W...WHERE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER S WIND FARTHER
FM HI CENTER WL ALSO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPANDED FCST AREA
OF FOG INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AWAY FM THE LK SUP SHORE WITH
UPSLOPE SSE LLVL FLOW OFF LK MI. SUSPECT THE FOG WL BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE IN THIS AREA.

FRI...AS POTENT SHRTWV LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE WRN TROF AND THE PRES
FALLS IN THE PLAINS...THE GRADIENT OVER UPR MI WL SHARPEN THRU THE
DAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY S WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL LIKELY BE AN INCRS IN HI CLDS AT LEAST OVER THE W UNDER THE
MORE DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALF CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV IN THE PLAINS...
MODELS SHOW THE LO/MID LYRS REMAINING DRY. WITH FCST H85 TEMPS TO
12C-14C...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S AGAIN AWAY FM THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK MI IN LLVL SE FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
IN RECENT DAYS...THE HIEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OVER THE W NEAR LK SUP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SO FAR...OCT IS OFF TO A VERY WARM START. THE AVG TEMP FOR THE FIRST
10 DAYS IS AN IMPRESSIVE 7.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HERE AT THE NWS
OFFICE LOCATION. IN ADDITION...THE TEMP HAS YET TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR LOWER. THE LATEST A TEMP AT OR BLO FREEZING HAS OCCURRED AT THIS
LOCATION IN AUTUMN IS OCT 14TH (1997)...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT
RECORD WILL BE EITHER TIED OR BROKEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE ON THE
HORIZON THAT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARM WEATHER AND SEND TEMPS
DOWN TO MORE TYPICAL MID OCT LEVELS. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY GRADUAL
PROCESS AS THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CURRENTLY DOMINATING
MUCH OF THE E HALF OF NAMERICA GIVE WAY TO A MEAN TROF OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDING N THRU ERN ALASKA. THIS CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING A WETTER PATTERN TO THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS TROF AXIS SETS UP TO THE W OF
HERE.

BEGINNING SAT...TRANSITION TOWARD COOLER WEATHER WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NE CO/WRN NEBRASKA LIFTS INTO
MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
UPPER MI SAT/SAT EVENING. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 60S AFTER ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR OCT STANDARDS. WITH TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE W AND NW OF HERE...THERE WILL
BE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA ACTIVITY ALONG FRONT
AS IT ARRIVES IN UPPER MI SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE SWINGING UNDERNEATH THE FIRST...MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS SAT
MORNING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SAT AFTN/EVENING. ALTHOUGH
BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS PASSES BY JUST TO THE NW OF
UPPER MI...COMBINATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO ERN UPPER MI SAT AFTN/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH TRENDS FROM
PREVIOUS FCST WHICH SHOWED INCREASING POPS WITH A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
OF SHRA BECOMING MORE LIKELY ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE
AREA SAT THRU EARLY SAT EVENING. AFTER THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SHRA
EARLY SAT OVER THE W...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THERE FOR SAT
AFTN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD 0C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
SAT NIGHT...NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT -SHRA GIVEN
WATER TEMPS MOSTLY AROUND 10C. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER SAT
NIGHT THRU MON UNDER STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF NEXT TROF SETTLING
OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. TEMPS SUN WILL BE CLOSER TO TYPICAL MID OCT READINGS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING...SUN
NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ENHANCED BY DRY AIR
MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 50-60PCT OF NORMAL). FAVORED THE LOW END OF
AVBL GUIDANCE. IN THIS CASE...BIAS CORRECTED GEM VALUES. EXPECT
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. SUN NIGHT
OFFERS THE BEST CHC SO FAR THIS SEASON OF TEMP FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER AT NWS MQT. IF SO...IT WOULD TIE 1997 FOR THE LATEST
OCCURRENCE OF A MIN TEMP AT OR BLO FREEZING. HIGH TEMPS MON SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO SUN.

TUE INTO THU...MEAN CNTRL NAMERICA TROF WILL BE DEVELOPING DOWSTREAM
OF RIDGE AMPLIFYING N INTO ERN ALASKA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY INITIALLY
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE KICKED OUT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
BUILDING RIDGE. FOR BEING 5 DAYS OUT...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST SOME
SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPORT A SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE WRN PLAINS MON TO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...A
STRONG AUTUMN STORM IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...A SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
HANDLES THE FCST NICELY FOR MON NIGHT THRU WED. WILL SPREAD HIGH CHC
POPS INTO THE WRN FCST AREA MON NIGHT WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT. MAY NEED TO CARRY HIGHER POPS ON INTO
WED AS WELL IF SLOWER TREND HOLDS. ONCE TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN...
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE
TUE/WED PERIOD. HEADING INTO THU...THERE IS MUCH MORE DISAGREEMENT
ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE CNTRL TROF AND LOCATION/TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
WITHIN IT. EVEN THOUGH THE TROF STRUCTURE IS DIFFERENT BTWN THE
ECMWF/GFS...THE MAJORITY OF THE LAST 4 ECMWF/GFS RUNS POINT TOWARD
SOME PCPN POTENTIAL AND SUGGEST CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE
THIS TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WL BE LATE TNGT INTO FRI MRNG AT SAW.
WITH A LGT UPSLOPE SSE WIND OFF LK MI UNDER LINGERING MID LVL DRY
AIR...OPTED TO INCLUDE A FCST OF FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THAT
LOCATION. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW AT CMX/IWD SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FOG AT THOSE SITES. A GUSTY S WIND WL DVLP LATER
IN THE TAF PERIOD ON FRI AFTN AT IWD WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
PUSH ACROSS EASTERN MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE A TROUGH SLIDING LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30KTS SATURDAY.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...LINGERING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SW GALES
TO 35KTS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OVERHEAD. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL PUSH
ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 441 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT UPR RDG
DOMINATING THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF TROF OVER THE W. AT
THE SFC...HI PRES EXTENDS FM NEW ENGLAND TO LOWER MI...WITH SW FLOW
ARND THIS RDG DOMINATING UPR MI. IN CONCERT WITH VERY DRY LO-MID LVL
AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB/MPX RAOBS...THE CWA IS ENJOYING ANOTHER
VERY PLEASANT OCT DAY DESPITE A STREAM OF SCT-BKN CI/CS IN THE SW
FLOW ALF BTWN THE ERN RDG/WRN TROF. MORE CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER NW MN
AND ONTARIO ALONG A STNRY FNT EXTENDING NE FM LO PRES IN THE NRN
PLAINS...BUT THESE CLDS ARE MAKING NO PROGRESS TOWARD THE CWA AND
THE DOMINATING UPR RDG. THERE WAS SOME FOG OVER INTERIOR E AND
SCENTRAL UPR MI AS WELL AS WI/LOWER MI THIS MRNG...BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING HAS DSPTD THIS FOG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU FRI REMAIN TEMPS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG TNGT AS THE UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS ARE FCST TO
REMAIN DOMINANT.

TNGT...EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL AGAIN TNGT CLOSER TO FLATTER PRES
GRADIENT AND CORE OF DRY AIR WITH PWAT FCST AOB 0.50 INCH EXCEPT
OVER THE FAR W...WHERE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER S WIND FARTHER
FM HI CENTER WL ALSO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPANDED FCST AREA
OF FOG INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AWAY FM THE LK SUP SHORE WITH
UPSLOPE SSE LLVL FLOW OFF LK MI. SUSPECT THE FOG WL BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE IN THIS AREA.

FRI...AS POTENT SHRTWV LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE WRN TROF AND THE PRES
FALLS IN THE PLAINS...THE GRADIENT OVER UPR MI WL SHARPEN THRU THE
DAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY S WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL LIKELY BE AN INCRS IN HI CLDS AT LEAST OVER THE W UNDER THE
MORE DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALF CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV IN THE PLAINS...
MODELS SHOW THE LO/MID LYRS REMAINING DRY. WITH FCST H85 TEMPS TO
12C-14C...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S AGAIN AWAY FM THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK MI IN LLVL SE FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
IN RECENT DAYS...THE HIEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OVER THE W NEAR LK SUP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SO FAR...OCT IS OFF TO A VERY WARM START. THE AVG TEMP FOR THE FIRST
10 DAYS IS AN IMPRESSIVE 7.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HERE AT THE NWS
OFFICE LOCATION. IN ADDITION...THE TEMP HAS YET TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR LOWER. THE LATEST A TEMP AT OR BLO FREEZING HAS OCCURRED AT THIS
LOCATION IN AUTUMN IS OCT 14TH (1997)...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT
RECORD WILL BE EITHER TIED OR BROKEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE ON THE
HORIZON THAT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARM WEATHER AND SEND TEMPS
DOWN TO MORE TYPICAL MID OCT LEVELS. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY GRADUAL
PROCESS AS THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CURRENTLY DOMINATING
MUCH OF THE E HALF OF NAMERICA GIVE WAY TO A MEAN TROF OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDING N THRU ERN ALASKA. THIS CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING A WETTER PATTERN TO THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS TROF AXIS SETS UP TO THE W OF
HERE.

BEGINNING SAT...TRANSITION TOWARD COOLER WEATHER WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NE CO/WRN NEBRASKA LIFTS INTO
MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
UPPER MI SAT/SAT EVENING. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 60S AFTER ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR OCT STANDARDS. WITH TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE W AND NW OF HERE...THERE WILL
BE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA ACTIVITY ALONG FRONT
AS IT ARRIVES IN UPPER MI SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE SWINGING UNDERNEATH THE FIRST...MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS SAT
MORNING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SAT AFTN/EVENING. ALTHOUGH
BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS PASSES BY JUST TO THE NW OF
UPPER MI...COMBINATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO ERN UPPER MI SAT AFTN/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH TRENDS FROM
PREVIOUS FCST WHICH SHOWED INCREASING POPS WITH A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
OF SHRA BECOMING MORE LIKELY ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE
AREA SAT THRU EARLY SAT EVENING. AFTER THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SHRA
EARLY SAT OVER THE W...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THERE FOR SAT
AFTN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD 0C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
SAT NIGHT...NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT -SHRA GIVEN
WATER TEMPS MOSTLY AROUND 10C. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER SAT
NIGHT THRU MON UNDER STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF NEXT TROF SETTLING
OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. TEMPS SUN WILL BE CLOSER TO TYPICAL MID OCT READINGS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING...SUN
NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ENHANCED BY DRY AIR
MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 50-60PCT OF NORMAL). FAVORED THE LOW END OF
AVBL GUIDANCE. IN THIS CASE...BIAS CORRECTED GEM VALUES. EXPECT
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. SUN NIGHT
OFFERS THE BEST CHC SO FAR THIS SEASON OF TEMP FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER AT NWS MQT. IF SO...IT WOULD TIE 1997 FOR THE LATEST
OCCURRENCE OF A MIN TEMP AT OR BLO FREEZING. HIGH TEMPS MON SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO SUN.

TUE INTO THU...MEAN CNTRL NAMERICA TROF WILL BE DEVELOPING DOWSTREAM
OF RIDGE AMPLIFYING N INTO ERN ALASKA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY INITIALLY
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE KICKED OUT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
BUILDING RIDGE. FOR BEING 5 DAYS OUT...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST SOME
SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPORT A SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE WRN PLAINS MON TO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...A
STRONG AUTUMN STORM IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...A SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
HANDLES THE FCST NICELY FOR MON NIGHT THRU WED. WILL SPREAD HIGH CHC
POPS INTO THE WRN FCST AREA MON NIGHT WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT. MAY NEED TO CARRY HIGHER POPS ON INTO
WED AS WELL IF SLOWER TREND HOLDS. ONCE TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN...
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE
TUE/WED PERIOD. HEADING INTO THU...THERE IS MUCH MORE DISAGREEMENT
ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE CNTRL TROF AND LOCATION/TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
WITHIN IT. EVEN THOUGH THE TROF STRUCTURE IS DIFFERENT BTWN THE
ECMWF/GFS...THE MAJORITY OF THE LAST 4 ECMWF/GFS RUNS POINT TOWARD
SOME PCPN POTENTIAL AND SUGGEST CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE
THIS TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WL BE LATE TNGT INTO FRI MRNG AT SAW.
WITH A LGT UPSLOPE SSE WIND OFF LK MI UNDER LINGERING MID LVL DRY
AIR...OPTED TO INCLUDE A FCST OF FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THAT
LOCATION. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW AT CMX/IWD SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FOG AT THOSE SITES. A GUSTY S WIND WL DVLP LATER
IN THE TAF PERIOD ON FRI AFTN AT IWD WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

LIGHT E-SE WINDS WITH HI PRES DOMINATING WILL VEER TO THE S AND
INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS ON FRI INTO SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN THE HI CENTER TO THE E AND A DEVELOPING
LO IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU SCENTRAL CANADA INTO
HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SAT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND THIS FROPA
SAT NIGHT/SUN AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS HI PRES MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS ON MON INTO TUE WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE AS THE HI RETREATS INTO
CANADA AND A LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE MAY INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS BY TUE WITH FAVORABLE TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 335 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOG TRENDS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING THIS MORNING AS A FEW OBSERVATION
SITES HAVE EVEN IMPROVED ON VISIBILITIES. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
EXPANSION OF THE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOWER AND THE
EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA. RUC13 SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SUPPORTS A RIPENING NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT AS DAWN
APPROACHES. WILL TOE THE LINE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAS TO PATCHY
DENSE WORDING THE EVENING CREW INTRODUCED.

ANOTHER DAY OF PROTOTYPICAL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. LITTLE TO NO THERMAL
ADVECTIONS IN STATIC NEAR TERM REGIME SUPPORTS A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH FULL
INSOLATION WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO ON MOS CONSENSUS.

SURFACE TRAJECTORIES TONIGHT SUGGESTS SEMICH WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LIGHT EASTERLY DRAINAGE OFF OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. COMPROMISED ON LOWS...UPPER
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR THE DETROIT URBAN HEAT ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW NOW
ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS INTO
MANITOBA ON SATURDAY. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES HOWEVER SHOW A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE OVER WRN MONTANA. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
INTO MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN POTENTIAL
VORTICITY. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES SAT AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT AND BETTER MIXING DEPTHS MAY ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S. A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL HOWEVER
ADVECT SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SE MI FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SAT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S EAST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS IN TERMS OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FGEN IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GOOD AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE SAT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET MAX ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SAT NIGHT...WHICH CAUSES THE DEEP LAYER FGEN TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
FRONT TRAVERSES SE MI. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF JUST CHANCE TYPE POPS
SAT NIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SUN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUN.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO
CARVE OUT ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHIFT IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN TOWARD A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US MID LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSIVE. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...MID LEVEL WAVES SHOULD LIFT OUT OF
THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARD MID
WEEK. DESPITE BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE WEEK...E-NE LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SUSTAIN COOLER
CONDITIONS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.MARINE...

IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORNING FOG
MAY HAMPER NAVIGATION IN THE 6AM TO 10AM TIMEFRAME THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...WINDS AND WAVES WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH 10 TO 25 KNOT SOUTH WINDS. THE LONG FETCH ALONG
LAKE HURON WILL REALIZE WAVE POTENTIAL IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE IN
NORTHERN LAKE HURON...EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
LAKE. FOLLOWING THAT FEATURE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. NEARSHORE AREAS WILL
REMAIN PROTECTED FROM HIGH WINDS AND WAVES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WHERE A HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE ONLY
CONCERN BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WAS SEEN THURSDAY MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES AT SOME TAF SITES
DROPPING BELOW 1/2 MILE.  RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...IF ENOUGH SOUTHEAST FLOW CAN
BRING IN EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE THIS WOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.  MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 10Z TO 14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE IN FOG FROM 11-14Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1209 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT UPR RDG
DOMINATING THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF TROF OVER THE W. AT
THE SFC...HI PRES EXTENDS FM NEW ENGLAND TO LOWER MI...WITH SW FLOW
ARND THIS RDG DOMINATING UPR MI. IN CONCERT WITH VERY DRY LO-MID LVL
AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB/MPX RAOBS...THE CWA IS ENJOYING ANOTHER
VERY PLEASANT OCT DAY DESPITE A STREAM OF SCT-BKN CI/CS IN THE SW
FLOW ALF BTWN THE ERN RDG/WRN TROF. MORE CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER NW MN
AND ONTARIO ALONG A STNRY FNT EXTENDING NE FM LO PRES IN THE NRN
PLAINS...BUT THESE CLDS ARE MAKING NO PROGRESS TOWARD THE CWA AND
THE DOMINATING UPR RDG. THERE WAS SOME FOG OVER INTERIOR E AND
SCENTRAL UPR MI AS WELL AS WI/LOWER MI THIS MRNG...BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING HAS DSPTD THIS FOG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU FRI REMAIN TEMPS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG TNGT AS THE UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS ARE FCST TO
REMAIN DOMINANT.

TNGT...EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL AGAIN TNGT CLOSER TO FLATTER PRES
GRADIENT AND CORE OF DRY AIR WITH PWAT FCST AOB 0.50 INCH EXCEPT
OVER THE FAR W...WHERE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER S WIND FARTHER
FM HI CENTER WL ALSO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPANDED FCST AREA
OF FOG INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AWAY FM THE LK SUP SHORE WITH
UPSLOPE SSE LLVL FLOW OFF LK MI. SUSPECT THE FOG WL BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE IN THIS AREA.

FRI...AS POTENT SHRTWV LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE WRN TROF AND THE PRES
FALLS IN THE PLAINS...THE GRADIENT OVER UPR MI WL SHARPEN THRU THE
DAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY S WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL LIKELY BE AN INCRS IN HI CLDS AT LEAST OVER THE W UNDER THE
MORE DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALF CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV IN THE PLAINS...
MODELS SHOW THE LO/MID LYRS REMAINING DRY. WITH FCST H85 TEMPS TO
12C-14C...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S AGAIN AWAY FM THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK MI IN LLVL SE FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
IN RECENT DAYS...THE HIEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OVER THE W NEAR LK SUP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

FRI NIGHT...MODELS HAVE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING
FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA INTO SRN MANITOBA AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
FM CENTRAL MN IN THE EVENING INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI BY 12Z SAT. WEAK
DYNAMICS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT INITIALLY AS IT WORKS ITS WAY INTO
WRN UPPER MI LATE FRI NIGHT AS BEST Q-VECT CONV WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NW ALONG WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW. GIVEN RELATIVELY POOR
DYNAMICS...LOOK FOR ONLY ISOLD TO SCT SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT
OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE FRI NIGHT. CURRENT 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD
COVER IT.

SAT INTO SAT EVENING...MODELS SHOW TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES...ONE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SECOND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EJECTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI. NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODELS
SHOW RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS 300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND Q-VECT CONV INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES.
GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THESE DETAILS AND FCST PWAT VALUES
NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL WILL PROBABLY NEED BOOST POPS UP TO HIGH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES. WESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND
BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE EAST.

LATE SAT EVENING INTO MONDAY...DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL COOL MAINLY INTO THE 50S
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...AS W-NW FLOW BRINGS 8H TEMPS OF 0-1C
ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AND SREF MODEL INDICATING PWAT VALUES AOB .50
INCH. WILL FCST TEMPS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED GEM VALUES. HIGH TEMPS COULD MODERATE A FEW DEGREES
ON MONDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS EASTERLY.

TUE INTO THU...MODEL CONSISTENCY DIMINISHES OUT TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF AND GEM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
SYSTEM COMING IN FOR TUESDAY. NCEP FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH IS
SIMILAR TO GEM-NH AND SLOWER THAN GFS DUE IN LARGE PART TO DEEPER
TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER SW CONUS AND BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOLLOWING THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLN...BROUGHT
IN HIGHER CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE WRN COUNTIES MON NIGHT WITH
INCREASING DEEP LYR Q-VECT CONV AND THEN SPREAD HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE CWA ON TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED SOME HIGHER CHC POPS FOR WED AS
COMMA-HEAD MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
LINGER OVER INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
SHORTWAVE RDGG AND DRIER CONDITIONS WED NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON
THU BRINGING ANOTHER CHC OF SHRA. MODELS NOT SHOWING VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH DETAILS OR STRENGTH WITH THU SYSTEM...SO EXPECT
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FINE TUNING OF FCST YET TO COME FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE
THIS TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WL BE LATE TNGT INTO FRI MRNG AT SAW.
WITH A LGT UPSLOPE SSE WIND OFF LK MI UNDER LINGERING MID LVL DRY
AIR...OPTED TO INCLUDE A FCST OF FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THAT
LOCATION. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW AT CMX/IWD SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FOG AT THOSE SITES. A GUSTY S WIND WL DVLP LATER
IN THE TAF PERIOD ON FRI AFTN AT IWD WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

LIGHT E-SE WINDS WITH HI PRES DOMINATING WILL VEER TO THE S AND
INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS ON FRI INTO SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN THE HI CENTER TO THE E AND A DEVELOPING
LO IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU SCENTRAL CANADA INTO
HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SAT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND THIS FROPA
SAT NIGHT/SUN AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS HI PRES MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS ON MON INTO TUE WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE AS THE HI RETREATS INTO
CANADA AND A LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE MAY INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS BY TUE WITH FAVORABLE TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 644 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

AT 342 PM...WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WAS SPREADING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. IT WAS STILL RELATIVELY DRY IN NW
WI...BUT SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THAT AREA AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. THE 4KM NMM WRF AND THE NAM HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS. WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON...FOLLOWED BY AND END IN PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST AND GRADUAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S...BUT IF IT
CLEARS OUT EARLIER...WE MAY SEE SOME 20S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

WET WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A
COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY AND INTO THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AREA TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RAIN
COULD LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SOMETIME THURSDAY...BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURES LOOK NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GET COLDER LATE IN THE
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WAS ALSO OCCURRING. WE EXPECT THE RAIN TO DIMINISH AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO
DIMINISH. WE LEANED ON THE RAP 925-900MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS FOR OUR TIMING. KBRD SHOULD BE FIRST TO SEE CONDITIONS GO
VFR...THEN KINL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  55  38  49 /  60   0  10  50
INL  32  52  33  52 /  70   0  10  40
BRD  34  57  39  51 /  30   0  10  70
HYR  35  58  32  56 /  20   0   0  30
ASX  38  57  35  55 /  30   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 112 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MATURE CYCLONE IN THE FORM OF A 988 MB SFC LOW OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL REACH ITS NADIR AROUND 12Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SODAK
WHEN THE HRRR HAS THE PRESSURE DOWN TO 985 MB WITH 12 HR H5 HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS NEB IN EXCESS OF 200 M. DURING THE MORNING THE SYSTEM
WILL START TO OCCLUDE AND BY 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING A 991/2 MB LOW
OVER SE NODAK THAT BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO A 995 MB LOW
EAST OF THE MANITOBA LAKES. THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NW MN WILL
SCOOT QUICKLY OFF INTO SRN CANADA TODAY...WITH AN OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SW MN AROUND 21Z...WILL BE CROSSING INTO WRN WI
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SATURDAY.

IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
BAND ONE WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE SEVERE SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED
ACROSS WRN NEB/KS LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A WAA BAND OF SHOWERS
THAT THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE HOPWRF HAVE BEEN HANDLING PRETTY
CONSISTENTLY OVERNIGHT...SO FOLLOWED THOSE MODELS TO BRING A NARROW
BAND OF HIGHER POPS INTO WRN MN AT 15Z...THAT WORKS OVER TOWARD THE
MN/WI BORDER SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER POPS TO
THE EAST WITH THIS...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING A CONTINUOUS
N-S ORIENTED BAND WORKING ACROSS THE ENTIRE MN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO UP POPS FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN
THUNDER LOOKING LIMITED AS WELL...BUT IT WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLL IN
THE POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS THANKS TO ITS CLOUD COVER AND
ITS LIMITING OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION.

AS FOR THAT SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP...IT WOULD FORM ALONG THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IT REPRESENTS THE
SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY AS WELL. ONE LOOK AT A FORECAST HODOGRAPH
SHOWS THAT ONE THING THAT WILL NOT BE IN QUESTION TODAY IS
SHEAR...LETS JUST SAY IT WILL BE COPIOUS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF TURNING WITHIN JUST THE LOWEST 1-3 KM OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDED BY A LLJ AT H85 THAT WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO OVER 50
KTS OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY GET THE HEART
PUMPING A BIT...A QUICK LOOK AT THE CAPE PROFILE SHOULD QUICKLY CALM
YOU BACK DOWN AS SBCAPE LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 700 J/KG AT
BEST...WITH CAPE PROFILES BEING QUITE SKINNY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE SHALLOW...HENCE THE MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS IN THE SPC SWODY1. THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ORIENTED MORE N-S ACROSS SRN MN...BUT WILL BE ARCING TO MORE
OF E-W ORIENTATION ACROSS WC MN INTO THE SFC LOW OVER SE NODAK. THE
SPC SWODY1 SLIGHT RISK IS CENTERED MORE ON WHERE THE FRONT TAKES ON
MORE OF A LATITUDINAL ORIENTATION...THOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT SCP/STP
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPIN AND THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES LOOKS TO
KEEP THIS AS A WIND/TORNADO THREAT ONLY.

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH A RAPIDLY DECAYING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO ERN
MN/WRN WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
PRIMARY UPPER FORCING WILL BE MOVING UP INTO WRN ONTARIO...WITH NOT
MUCH MORE THAN SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO WORK WITH FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF DECREASING POPS THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO.

WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM WHAT WAS
INHERITED. HOWEVER...WITH THE GFSLAMP SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT
AXN INCREASING TO OVER 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO TACK ON
ANOTHER 4 COUNTIES TO THE NORTH OF THE EXISTING WIND ADVY.

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS
TO SLOW THE FRONTS TIMING BY A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO ENJOY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES ON A
BELOW NORMAL JOURNEY. THERE WILL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS RESULTING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... ALTHOUGH MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THERE IS A CONTINUED SLOWING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT... BROKE THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
POP/WX GRIDS INTO 6 HOUR BLOCKS AND SLOWED THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI OVER WHAT THE CR
EXTEND INDICATED. THIS KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TWIN CITIES UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT AROUND MID WEEK.
THE GFS WOULD KEEP AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF AN
UPPER LOW AND DRAGS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS...PRECIPITATION AND HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT... HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY WITH COOL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MN SITES
/PRIMARILY KRWF-KAXN-KSTC/ WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A QUICK BURST
OF HEAVY PRECIP...GUSTY WINDS...AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE BAND
LIFTS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE SITE
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS SECONDARY ACTIVITY WILL BE KAXN
AND KRWF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...ALTHOUGH
THE ATTENDANT CATEGORY SHOULD BE VFR. AS THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH FILTERS IN TONIGHT...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY
SHIFT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION FOR SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
15 KT GUSTING T0 25KT SPEEDS EXPECTED.

KMSP...
THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE 22Z TO 02Z...WITH A
MINIMAL THREAT FOR THUNDER. OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHRA
ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO
200 DEGREES AROUND 03Z..VEER FURTHER TO AROUND 230 DEGREES BY
15Z...THEN 250 DEGREES BY 18Z SATURDAY. SPEEDS AR NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON DURING THE DAY TODAY AND SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH -SHRA/MVFR LIKELY IN THE AFT/EVE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR WITH -SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. WINDS NNE 7-12KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>057-064-065-073>075-082-083-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE/LS










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 109 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MATURE CYCLONE IN THE FORM OF A 988 MB SFC LOW OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL REACH ITS NADIR AROUND 12Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SODAK
WHEN THE HRRR HAS THE PRESSURE DOWN TO 985 MB WITH 12 HR H5 HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS NEB IN EXCESS OF 200 M. DURING THE MORNING THE SYSTEM
WILL START TO OCCLUDE AND BY 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING A 991/2 MB LOW
OVER SE NODAK THAT BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO A 995 MB LOW
EAST OF THE MANITOBA LAKES. THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NW MN WILL
SCOOT QUICKLY OFF INTO SRN CANADA TODAY...WITH AN OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SW MN AROUND 21Z...WILL BE CROSSING INTO WRN WI
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SATURDAY.

IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
BAND ONE WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE SEVERE SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED
ACROSS WRN NEB/KS LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A WAA BAND OF SHOWERS
THAT THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE HOPWRF HAVE BEEN HANDLING PRETTY
CONSISTENTLY OVERNIGHT...SO FOLLOWED THOSE MODELS TO BRING A NARROW
BAND OF HIGHER POPS INTO WRN MN AT 15Z...THAT WORKS OVER TOWARD THE
MN/WI BORDER SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER POPS TO
THE EAST WITH THIS...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING A CONTINUOUS
N-S ORIENTED BAND WORKING ACROSS THE ENTIRE MN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO UP POPS FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN
THUNDER LOOKING LIMITED AS WELL...BUT IT WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLL IN
THE POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS THANKS TO ITS CLOUD COVER AND
ITS LIMITING OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION.

AS FOR THAT SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP...IT WOULD FORM ALONG THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IT REPRESENTS THE
SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY AS WELL. ONE LOOK AT A FORECAST HODOGRAPH
SHOWS THAT ONE THING THAT WILL NOT BE IN QUESTION TODAY IS
SHEAR...LETS JUST SAY IT WILL BE COPIOUS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF TURNING WITHIN JUST THE LOWEST 1-3 KM OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDED BY A LLJ AT H85 THAT WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO OVER 50
KTS OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY GET THE HEART
PUMPING A BIT...A QUICK LOOK AT THE CAPE PROFILE SHOULD QUICKLY CALM
YOU BACK DOWN AS SBCAPE LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 700 J/KG AT
BEST...WITH CAPE PROFILES BEING QUITE SKINNY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE SHALLOW...HENCE THE MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS IN THE SPC SWODY1. THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ORIENTED MORE N-S ACROSS SRN MN...BUT WILL BE ARCING TO MORE
OF E-W ORIENTATION ACROSS WC MN INTO THE SFC LOW OVER SE NODAK. THE
SPC SWODY1 SLIGHT RISK IS CENTERED MORE ON WHERE THE FRONT TAKES ON
MORE OF A LATITUDINAL ORIENTATION...THOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT SCP/STP
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPIN AND THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES LOOKS TO
KEEP THIS AS A WIND/TORNADO THREAT ONLY.

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH A RAPIDLY DECAYING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO ERN
MN/WRN WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
PRIMARY UPPER FORCING WILL BE MOVING UP INTO WRN ONTARIO...WITH NOT
MUCH MORE THAN SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO WORK WITH FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF DECREASING POPS THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO.

WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM WHAT WAS
INHERITED. HOWEVER...WITH THE GFSLAMP SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT
AXN INCREASING TO OVER 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO TACK ON
ANOTHER 4 COUNTIES TO THE NORTH OF THE EXISTING WIND ADVY.

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS
TO SLOW THE FRONTS TIMING BY A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO ENJOY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES ON A
BELOW NORMAL JOURNEY. THERE WILL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS RESULTING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... ALTHOUGH MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THERE IS A CONTINUED SLOWING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT... BROKE THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
POP/WX GRIDS INTO 6 HOUR BLOCKS AND SLOWED THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI OVER WHAT THE CR
EXTEND INDICATED. THIS KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TWIN CITIES UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT AROUND MID WEEK.
THE GFS WOULD KEEP AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF AN
UPPER LOW AND DRAGS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS...PRECIPITATION AND HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT... HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY WITH COOL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MN SITES
/PRIMARILY KRWF-KAXN-KSTC/ WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A QUICK BURST
OF HEAVY PRECIP...GUSTY WINDS...AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE BAND
LIFTS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE SITE
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS SECONDARY ACTIVITY WILL BE KAXN
AND KRWF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...ALTHOUGH THE ATTENDANT CATEGORY SHOULD BE VFR. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY SHIFT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION FOR
SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED 15 KT GUSTING T0 25KT SPEEDS EXPECTED.

KMSP...
THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE 22Z TO 02Z...WITH A
MINIMAL THREAT FOR THUNDER. OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHRA
ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO
200 DEGREES AROUND 03Z..VEER FURTHER TO AROUND 230 DEGREES BY
15Z...THEN 250 DEGREES BY 18Z SATURDAY. SPEEDS AR NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON DURING THE DAY TODAY AND SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH -SHRA/MVFR LIKELY IN THE AFT/EVE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR WITH -SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. WINDS NNE 7-12KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>057-064-065-073>075-082-083-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE/LS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 627 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MATURE CYCLONE IN THE FORM OF A 988 MB SFC LOW OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL REACH ITS NADIR AROUND 12Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SODAK
WHEN THE HRRR HAS THE PRESSURE DOWN TO 985 MB WITH 12 HR H5 HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS NEB IN EXCESS OF 200 M. DURING THE MORNING THE SYSTEM
WILL START TO OCCLUDE AND BY 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING A 991/2 MB LOW
OVER SE NODAK THAT BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO A 995 MB LOW
EAST OF THE MANITOBA LAKES. THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NW MN WILL
SCOOT QUICKLY OFF INTO SRN CANADA TODAY...WITH AN OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SW MN AROUND 21Z...WILL BE CROSSING INTO WRN WI
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SATURDAY.

IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
BAND ONE WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE SEVERE SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED
ACROSS WRN NEB/KS LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A WAA BAND OF SHOWERS
THAT THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE HOPWRF HAVE BEEN HANDLING PRETTY
CONSISTENTLY OVERNIGHT...SO FOLLOWED THOSE MODELS TO BRING A NARROW
BAND OF HIGHER POPS INTO WRN MN AT 15Z...THAT WORKS OVER TOWARD THE
MN/WI BORDER SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER POPS TO
THE EAST WITH THIS...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING A CONTINUOUS
N-S ORIENTED BAND WORKING ACROSS THE ENTIRE MN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO UP POPS FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN
THUNDER LOOKING LIMITED AS WELL...BUT IT WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLL IN
THE POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS THANKS TO ITS CLOUD COVER AND
ITS LIMITING OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION.

AS FOR THAT SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP...IT WOULD FORM ALONG THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IT REPRESENTS THE
SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY AS WELL. ONE LOOK AT A FORECAST HODOGRAPH
SHOWS THAT ONE THING THAT WILL NOT BE IN QUESTION TODAY IS
SHEAR...LETS JUST SAY IT WILL BE COPIOUS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF TURNING WITHIN JUST THE LOWEST 1-3 KM OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDED BY A LLJ AT H85 THAT WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO OVER 50
KTS OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY GET THE HEART
PUMPING A BIT...A QUICK LOOK AT THE CAPE PROFILE SHOULD QUICKLY CALM
YOU BACK DOWN AS SBCAPE LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 700 J/KG AT
BEST...WITH CAPE PROFILES BEING QUITE SKINNY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE SHALLOW...HENCE THE MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS IN THE SPC SWODY1. THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ORIENTED MORE N-S ACROSS SRN MN...BUT WILL BE ARCING TO MORE
OF E-W ORIENTATION ACROSS WC MN INTO THE SFC LOW OVER SE NODAK. THE
SPC SWODY1 SLIGHT RISK IS CENTERED MORE ON WHERE THE FRONT TAKES ON
MORE OF A LATITUDINAL ORIENTATION...THOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT SCP/STP
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPIN AND THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES LOOKS TO
KEEP THIS AS A WIND/TORNADO THREAT ONLY.

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH A RAPIDLY DECAYING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO ERN
MN/WRN WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
PRIMARY UPPER FORCING WILL BE MOVING UP INTO WRN ONTARIO...WITH NOT
MUCH MORE THAN SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO WORK WITH FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF DECREASING POPS THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO.

WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM WHAT WAS
INHERITED. HOWEVER...WITH THE GFSLAMP SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT
AXN INCREASING TO OVER 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO TACK ON
ANOTHER 4 COUNTIES TO THE NORTH OF THE EXISTING WIND ADVY.

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS
TO SLOW THE FRONTS TIMING BY A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO ENJOY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES ON A
BELOW NORMAL JOURNEY. THERE WILL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS RESULTING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... ALTHOUGH MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THERE IS A CONTINUED SLOWING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT... BROKE THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
POP/WX GRIDS INTO 6 HOUR BLOCKS AND SLOWED THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI OVER WHAT THE CR
EXTEND INDICATED. THIS KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TWIN CITIES UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT AROUND MID WEEK.
THE GFS WOULD KEEP AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF AN
UPPER LOW AND DRAGS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS...PRECIPITATION AND HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT... HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY WITH COOL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

EXPECT TWO POTENTIAL PRECIP BANDS THIS PERIOD. FIRST IS BAND OF
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER ERN NEB/SODAK THAT WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS
MN TERMINALS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR/HOPWRF HAVE HAD A GOOD
HANDEL ON THIS BAND OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...SO USED THEM TO TIME THESE
SHRA ACROSS THE MN TERMINALS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED AND EXPECT
CURRENT TREND OF NO THUNDER TO CONTINUE WITH THIS BATCH OF RAIN.
SECOND POTENTIAL BATCH HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. HOPWRF AND
HIRES-ARW SHOW BAND OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN SODAK AROUND 20Z
AND WILL PUSH ENE TOWARD AXN BY 00Z. MOST WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE WITH FRONT EXPECTED OVER WC/NW MN...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
ISO/SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA...CLEARING THE EAU BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z SAT. FOR
WINDS...MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING TAFS OTHER THAN TO ADD IN THE
VEERING TO THE SW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO LONG BAND OF
SHRA IMPACTING THE FIELD AROUND 21Z BASED ON LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR AND HOPWRF. BASED ON THE ARW/NMM/SPCWRFS...SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2Z AND 6Z. OUTSIDE
OF ANY HEAVIER SHRA ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. FOR
WINDS...GUSTS PROBABLY WILL NOT BECOME MORE CONSISTENT UNTIL 14/15Z
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE HIGH ON FRONTAL TIMING FOR
TONIGHT...THOUGH MAY BE A LITTLE QUICK IN VEERING THE WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 15G25 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W AT 10G15 KTS.
MON....VFR WITH -SHRA/MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS E AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-073>075-082-083-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MATURE CYCLONE IN THE FORM OF A 988 MB SFC LOW OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL REACH ITS NADIR AROUND 12Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SODAK
WHEN THE HRRR HAS THE PRESSURE DOWN TO 985 MB WITH 12 HR H5 HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS NEB IN EXCESS OF 200 M. DURING THE MORNING THE SYSTEM
WILL START TO OCCLUDE AND BY 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING A 991/2 MB LOW
OVER SE NODAK THAT BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO A 995 MB LOW
EAST OF THE MANITOBA LAKES. THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NW MN WILL
SCOOT QUICKLY OFF INTO SRN CANADA TODAY...WITH AN OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SW MN AROUND 21Z...WILL BE CROSSING INTO WRN WI
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SATURDAY.

IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
BAND ONE WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE SEVERE SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED
ACROSS WRN NEB/KS LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A WAA BAND OF SHOWERS
THAT THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE HOPWRF HAVE BEEN HANDLING PRETTY
CONSISTENTLY OVERNIGHT...SO FOLLOWED THOSE MODELS TO BRING A NARROW
BAND OF HIGHER POPS INTO WRN MN AT 15Z...THAT WORKS OVER TOWARD THE
MN/WI BORDER SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER POPS TO
THE EAST WITH THIS...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING A CONTINUOUS
N-S ORIENTED BAND WORKING ACROSS THE ENTIRE MN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO UP POPS FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN
THUNDER LOOKING LIMITED AS WELL...BUT IT WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLL IN
THE POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS THANKS TO ITS CLOUD COVER AND
ITS LIMITING OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION.

AS FOR THAT SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP...IT WOULD FORM ALONG THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IT REPRESENTS THE
SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY AS WELL. ONE LOOK AT A FORECAST HODOGRAPH
SHOWS THAT ONE THING THAT WILL NOT BE IN QUESTION TODAY IS
SHEAR...LETS JUST SAY IT WILL BE COPIOUS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF TURNING WITHIN JUST THE LOWEST 1-3 KM OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDED BY A LLJ AT H85 THAT WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO OVER 50
KTS OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY GET THE HEART
PUMPING A BIT...A QUICK LOOK AT THE CAPE PROFILE SHOULD QUICKLY CALM
YOU BACK DOWN AS SBCAPE LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 700 J/KG AT
BEST...WITH CAPE PROFILES BEING QUITE SKINNY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE SHALLOW...HENCE THE MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS IN THE SPC SWODY1. THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ORIENTED MORE N-S ACROSS SRN MN...BUT WILL BE ARCING TO MORE
OF E-W ORIENTATION ACROSS WC MN INTO THE SFC LOW OVER SE NODAK. THE
SPC SWODY1 SLIGHT RISK IS CENTERED MORE ON WHERE THE FRONT TAKES ON
MORE OF A LATITUDINAL ORIENTATION...THOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT SCP/STP
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPIN AND THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES LOOKS TO
KEEP THIS AS A WIND/TORNADO THREAT ONLY.

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH A RAPIDLY DECAYING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO ERN
MN/WRN WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
PRIMARY UPPER FORCING WILL BE MOVING UP INTO WRN ONTARIO...WITH NOT
MUCH MORE THAN SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO WORK WITH FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF DECREASING POPS THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO.

WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM WHAT WAS
INHERITED. HOWEVER...WITH THE GFSLAMP SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT
AXN INCREASING TO OVER 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO TACK ON
ANOTHER 4 COUNTIES TO THE NORTH OF THE EXISTING WIND ADVY.

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS
TO SLOW THE FRONTS TIMING BY A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO ENJOY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES ON A
BELOW NORMAL JOURNEY. THERE WILL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS RESULTING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... ALTHOUGH MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THERE IS A CONTINUED SLOWING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT... BROKE THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
POP/WX GRIDS INTO 6 HOUR BLOCKS AND SLOWED THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI OVER WHAT THE CR
EXTEND INDICATED. THIS KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TWIN CITIES UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT AROUND MID WEEK.
THE GFS WOULD KEEP AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF AN
UPPER LOW AND DRAGS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS...PRECIPITATION AND HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT... HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY WITH COOL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

NO CHGS TO PREVIOUS TAF WITH -SHRA AT KRWF/KAXN BY 18Z...BUT CIGS
WILL HOLD AOA 3.5K. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS. ONLY A SMALL
WINDOW OF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHRA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 KTS BY 17-18Z ACROSS MOST OF MPX TAF SITES. BEST CHC OF SHRA
WILL OCCUR AT KRWF/KAXN BETWEEN 16-19Z...AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTN
WITH A CHC OF TSRA. FURTHER EAST...CHC/S OF TSRA ARE LOW BUT NOT
OUT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS ON THE INSTABILITY
DURING THE MORNING. AFT 00Z/12...WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
S/SW WITH WIND SPDS DROPPING TO ARND 14-16 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
20-24 KTS.

KMSP...

NO MAJOR CHGS TO PREVIOUS TAF WITH THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY
AFT 20Z...BUT ENDING DURING THE EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY A LOW CHC OF MVFR VSBYS IF A HEAVIER
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS. BEST CHC OF TSRA WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 15-17Z
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS BY 17-18Z...AND CONTINUING THRU THE
AFTN. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE S/SSW BY LATE EVENING...WITH A
MORE SW WIND TOWARD 12Z/12.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. WINDS WSW AT 15G20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W AT 10G15 KTS.
MON....VFR WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS ESE AT 10G15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-073>075-082-083-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 340 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

CYCLOGENESIS WELL UNDERWAY AS ADVERTISED ACROSS ERN
COL/SWRN NEB UNDERNEATH POTENT SRN BRANCH OF THE  WESTERLIES. NRN
BRANCH OF SPLIT JETSTREAM IS AMPLIFYING SLIGHTLY OVER WRN CANADA/NRN
ROCKIES AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF PROGRESSES ACROSS SRN ALB.
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN MID LVLS ACROSS NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF
EJECTING NEGATIVE TIL TROF. 45/50KT LLJ IS CONCENTRATED FROM TX INTO
ERN SODAK WITH A WEAKER EXTENSION NORTH INTO NWRN MN. 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER CWA PAST 6 HRS AS SFC/MID LVL
SYSTEMS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY...TONIGHT...TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER NEB WILL LIFT NORTH INTO ERN NODAK BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIALLY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
MOISTEN THIS AFTERNOON AS FRNTL BDRY APPROACHES. 85H MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO BRD LAKES VICINITY LATE TODAY.
LOW LVL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. A WELL MIXED BDRY LYR IS EXPECTED AS INCREASING PGF COMBINES
WITH UPPER JET APPROACHING CWA. BUFKIT MOMENTUM PROFILES/HRRR WIND
GUST PRODUCTS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR G40 MPH ACROSS SRN CASS/CROW
WING COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY WILL LIFT TO
ABOUT 250 TO 500 J/KG IN SWRN PART OF CWA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A FEW FAST MOVING LOW TOPPED CELLS TO ORGANIZE. SPC SREF
CAL PROB OF SVR HIGHLIGHTS AN AREA JUST SW OF DLH CWA FROM 21Z-03Z.
SPC 4KM WRF INDICATES AN INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION ROTATING INTO
THE WRN CWA AFTER 21Z..WITH A SECONDARY BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ARRIVING IN THE EVENING. BOTH AREAS GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR. LOWERING SFC PRESS TO THE
WEST SHOULD INDUCE A STIFF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
TEMPS IN LOW 50S ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS SO COOLER BY THE LAKE
TODAY.

TONIGHT...OCCLUDED SFC BDRY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AND APPROACH TWIN
PORTS AROUND 06Z. CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
APPROACHES THE ERN CWA AS MLCAPE LOWERS QUICKLY. HOWEVER STRONG
KINEMATICS ...INCLUDING A 50/55KT LLJ...MAY ALLOW TRANSPORT OF
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN SOME OF THE SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING OVER MN ZONES. THE FRONTAL BDRY SHOULD REACH THE ERN
ARROWHEAD AND ERN WISC ZONES BY 12Z WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW...A MID LVL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF WILL WORK
ACROSS THE CWA. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRY WX WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN
THE DAY IN MOST OF THE REGION. IN THE AFTN A WELL DEFINED WRAPAROUND
AREA OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL SWEEP ACROSS MOST OF THE MN ZONES. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AS
COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY EARLY IN THE
DAY AS THE MIXING LAYER TAPS INTO 35/40KT WINDS IN LOWEST 5K FT. MAY
NEED TO ADJUST WINDS HIGHER BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AFTN AS QUICK EXPANSION OF CLOUD COVER LIMITS MOMENTUM TRANSFER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN LINGERING OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AS FRIDAYS STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION.  COLDER AIR WILL HAVE BEEN
BROUGHT DOWN INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS
WELL...SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TURN BACK TOWARDS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.  MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE DOWN
IN THE 30S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 50S.

THE STORM SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEGINNING TO GET A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENCY FROM THE MODELS.  MODELS ARE STILL VARYING IN
TRACK...TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT MAINLY MORE FOR THE LATER PERIODS
OF THE STORM...AND THE NEARER PERIODS IMPROVING.  GFS IS STILL
FASTER AND WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. AM CONCERNED FOR
MONDAY AS THE MODEL POP GRIDS ARE SURPRISINGLY HIGH FOR MONDAY GIVEN
THE PATTERN...AND SUSPECT THEY ARE BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION IN TOO
QUICKLY.  HAVE ONCE AGAIN RAISED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  PREVIOUS MODELS HAD BROUGHT SOME SUB-ZERO
TEMPERATURES IN AT 850MB TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD IMPLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX.  HOWEVER...THE EVENING RUN OF MODELS
WERE LESS COLD...AND THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS LESS CONCERNING AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

0.5KM SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 30-40 KTS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SHOW
BORDER-LINE WIND SHEAR ISSUES IN THE TAFS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
THAT OUT. EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SOUTHWEST AREAS INCLUDING KBRD WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE RATHER STRONG IN THE
EVENING DUE TO HIGH SHEAR AND ADEQUATE CAPE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  51  55  38 /  30  50  30  10
INL  72  53  54  35 /  50  60  50  30
BRD  72  48  54  36 /  60  60  20  10
HYR  73  52  59  36 /  10  30  10  10
ASX  74  55  61  39 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MELDE








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 1240 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

AT 315PM/2015Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR NEW
ENGLAND AND WAS DOMINATING THE WEATHER OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LIFTING
THROUGH THE ARIZONA/UTAH AREA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHLAND...HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE NE OR ONSHORE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE THE WINDS NOT SUBSIDE
MUCH TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BREWING IN THE PLAINS. THE WINDS WILL
HELP BOLSTER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING FROM THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA OVER THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT...AND THAT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
UP.I INCREASED THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND. GUSTY SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND
AREAS...AND NE OR ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. I INCREASED
THE WINDS OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST QUITE A BIT. THE GFS BUFR AND
NAM12 SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF FLOW IN THE MIXING
LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHLAND WILL
LIKELY SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THOSE MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN
HAD HIGHER WINDS...BUT I DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE THE WINDS TOO
MUCH SO AS TO NOT MAKE A KNEE JERK REACTION FORECAST. IF THE
SUBSEQUENT MODELS COME IN JUST AS HIGHER OR HIGHER...THAN THE
NIGHT SHIFT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE WINDS EVEN MORE AND MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY. SHOWERS AND STRAY STORMS COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY NE MINNESOTA...DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL MUCH CAPE...SO I
IMAGINE ANY STRAY STORMS WILL BE WEAK. MOST OF ANY PCPN SHOULD BE
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

ACTIVE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MULTIPLE WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

HAVE EXPANDED ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SMALL CAPE VALUES. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WINDS
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG MIXING DUE TO COLD TEMPS ALOFT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD. FOCUS TURNS
TO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...AND
INTO WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM
TRACK WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

0.5KM SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 30-40 KTS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SHOW
BORDER-LINE WIND SHEAR ISSUES IN THE TAFS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
THAT OUT. EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SOUTHWEST AREAS INCLUDING KBRD WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE RATHER STRONG IN THE
EVENING DUE TO HIGH SHEAR AND ADEQUATE CAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  57  38  52 /  50  20  10  10
INL  53  54  36  49 /  60  30  20  10
BRD  49  55  35  55 /  40  20  10  10
HYR  52  60  37  56 /  30  20  10  10
ASX  54  61  40  54 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

 402 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY AFTER THE FOG/STRATUS
CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND WENT CLOSE TO MAV. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS HIGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REGION WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS FORECAST RUC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE VERY LOW.
ALSO...LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO FALL BETWEEN 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE. THIS WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. DID NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THE
MOMENT BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL. SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO
HINDER FOG POTENTIAL. FOG SHOULD LIFT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AROUND
14-15Z. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PIVOT
NE...SLIDING THE S/WV RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL AID IN A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA TOMORROW FROM THE W/NW. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS N THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...THE BOUNDARY WILL LOSE SOME
EASTWARD MOTION AND STALL ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE REGION. SOME
SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE NW/CENTRAL AREAS TOMORROW WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR NW DELTA DUE TO SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. WENT CLOSE TO MAV HIGHS/POPS SATURDAY.

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LOW MAV INDICATES SOME LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW. ALSO GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE 12Z IN THE W/NW BUT SHOULD END AFTER 3-6Z.
H5 UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SW GULF WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE E AND
THE AREA WILL WARM NICELY INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S SUNDAY. SOME HIGHER
PWATS IN THE SW WILL AID IN SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO EVENING. WENT CLOSE TO MAV HIGHS/POPS SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR SLIGHTLY IN THE E...SUPPORTING NEAR MAV LOWS MONDAY
MORNING. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WILL END AROUND 3Z MONDAY IN THE
FAR SW. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS
ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...

NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FROM YESTERDAY MORNING. THE
REGION WILL BE SITUATED UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAKENING BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING THE REGION EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND
BUT LOOKS TO STALL TO OUR WEST. MOST OF THE ARKLAMISS WILL REMAIN ON
THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 80S THROUGH
MID-WEEK. CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND BRINGS A FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. MODELS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING THIS FRONT THROUGH
MID-WEEK...GENERALLY AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS MUCH SLOWER IN BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAINS THROUGH THE REGION...STALLING IT AGAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL BETTER
SUPPORT BROUGHT IT THROUGH BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF
RETURNS MORE IN LINE WITH LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUN AND THE MOST RECENT
00Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON WED-
THURS AND CLEARING OUT THE RAIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AT THIS
TIME...STILL LOOKS LIKE JUST RAIN AS INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT. MODELS
CLEAR OUT THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER AIR FILTER IN. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN NEXT 24 HOURS WILL AGAIN BE
IFR/VLIFR DENSE FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MRNG. AT
THIS TIME...VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH FEW/SCT
3500-5000 FT CUMULUS DECK AND 3-7 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS. SKIES WILL
CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVRNGT ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS 08Z-14Z. BEST PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE IN
SOUTH MS AND IMPACT KHBG/KPIB WEST TO KMCB AND KHEZ. KJAN/KHKS/MEI
WILL LIKELY GO IFR BUT MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS THIS MRNG. FOG/STRATUS
WILL DISSIPATE BY 15-16Z WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER WITH LIGHT
WINDS. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  85  64  88 /   4  14  14  20
MERIDIAN      60  86  61  88 /   3   5   4  10
VICKSBURG     65  85  63  88 /   7  25  18  28
HATTIESBURG   64  87  63  89 /   6   6   6  20
NATCHEZ       67  84  66  85 /   5  22  15  36
GREENVILLE    64  85  64  85 /  12  35  24  14
GREENWOOD     65  85  63  87 /   7  26  16   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/28/ALLEN






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 453 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 453 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

Latest surface analysis shows a broad confluence zone stretching
through eastern Kansas, situated along the western edge of a low
level moist axis characterized by dewpoints in the lower 60s.
Visible satellite imagery shows that clouds have scattered between
the approaching surface dryline and widespread overcast across
western MO, with a congealing line of cumulus present from FNB to
EMP where temperatures have quickly climbed to near 80 degrees. This
has yielded modest SBCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg, thanks to
seasonably rich moisture in the sfc-800mb layer and dry air
advancing aloft ahead of the upper trough. Potential cloud bearing
shear values are quite strong ahead of the upper trough, estimated
based on recent aircraft soundings between 45-50 knots, with vectors
largely orthogonal to the dryline and trailing cold front
orientations.

The big question mark over the next several hours will be whether or
not sufficient low level convergence can lift out the remaining
inhibition (roughly 50 J/kg) still present per latest RUC analysis.
Although several convective allowing models and the NAM-WRF do
generate deep convection, their preferred location seems to be well
east of where recent trends suggest its most possible. Several
scenarios remain plausible, including a null event. However, it
seems to reason that sufficient synoptic forcing and/or the evening
low level jet should force at least isolated convection sometime in
the next 1-3 hours, possibly as far west as eastern Kansas.

/If/ storms develop...0-3km CAPE between 100-200 J/kg, coupled with
favorable deep layer shear could support discrete storms capable of
producing bouts of at least marginal severe weather through mid
evening. Obviously concerns surrounding numerous ongoing evening
activities as well, so will monitor closely for signs of
development.

Bookbinder

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

Forecast for the next couple of days is focused on precipitation
chances for tonight. Water vapor imagery shows us a compact low
lifting northeast through Dakota`s with a cold front extending south
through eastern Nebraska and central Kansas. The band of showers
that transited the forecast area earlier today has petered out as
the spoke of isentropic lift that was helping fuel this activity on
the 300K to 305K surfaces has shifted off to the northeast. Thick
cloud cover across western Missouri, with more scattered cover in
eastern Kansas, is a result of the continued broad isentropic assent
occurring ahead of the cold front in Kansas. As the front pushes
slowly east tonight lift ahead of the front will intersect the
deeper moisture across Missouri, likely resulting in showers and
embedded thunderstorms tonight. Current short range model outputs
indicate that much of this activity will likely develop in place
across western Missouri, and recent visible satellite imagery backs
that assertion up as the cloud cover is looking decidedly flat at
this time. As a result, still expect storms to develop late this
afternoon and-or early this evening across western Missouri
--possibly just east of KC--, with the potential for a good wetting
rain increasing as you move towards central Missouri. Much of the
activity under the "Friday Night Lights" should be minimally
impacted as showers and thunderstorms likely wont get going till the
mid to late evening hours --after 7 PM--. That being said, when
storms do develop lightning will be of concern to anyone still
outside.

By Saturday morning the front, and associated showers, will have
left our section of Missouri behind. Near normal temperatures will
sweep in to dominate the rest of the weekend with highs in the upper
60s to low 70s for both Saturday and Sunday. Next chance at storms
will arrive Monday as another storm system moves through the Plains
States.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

Another upper trough is slated to dig/deepen over the Great Basin
Sunday night with southwesterly flow aloft downstream. The general
model trend through Tuesday allows for a broadening and positive
tilting of this upper trough with several pieces of energy ejecting
through the Central/Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley while
retaining a secondary shortwave in the base of the trough. The
initial shortwave ejecting out of the main upper trough is expected
to track further south than the one currently moving through NE/SD.
This should allow for a better quality of low level moisture to work
into the MO River Valley for convective development at the start of
the work week.

Sunday night: Dome of Pacific high pressure will retreat eastward
overnight while warm air advection begins to ramp-up over the
Central Plains in response to pressure falls ahead of the first
shortwave ejecting from the Great Basin upper trough. Believe there
will be enough dry air to overcome due to easterly boundary layer
flow to hold precipitation at bay for most of the night except for
the far western CWA where slight chance PoPs inserted after midnight.

Monday-Tuesday: Models are in very good agreement with strong/deep
isentropic ascent on the 300K through 315K layers although the 12z
NAM may be a bit too fast in spreading precipitation east. However,
don`t want to underestimate the degree of warm air advection. High
confidence on going with high PoPs for Monday/Monday night. Have
raised Monday max temperatures over the eastern CWA due to a delay
in precipitation arriving and partial sunshine. A cold front moving
through KS/MO Monday night will likely enhance convergence and
likely another round of convection Monday night.

Mid level dry slot wrapping under the surface low passing north of
the CWA will strip away deeper moisture and limit qpf on Tuesday.
Scattered residual showers are expected to end from west to east
during the morning. Cold air advection and left over cloud cover
will result in below average temperatures.

Wednesday-Friday: Confidence decreases markedly during this period
owing to widening model spread with time. Wrap around cloud
cover/sprinkles associated with the departing cyclone could spread
back into the CWA on Wednesday as suggested by ECMWF/GFS solutions.
Despite the wide model spread there is an over-riding theme during
this period and it revolves around below average temperatures. Will
leave precipitation out for now.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

A broken deck of MVFR clouds developed across western Missouri this
morning, and looks to persist through much of the afternoon hours.
Showers associated with the cloud cover have moved well east of the
terminals, but more activity is expected to develop again across
western Missouri late this afternoon and into the evening hours.
However, much of the focus for this activity is also expected to be
east of the terminals, so have limited the mention of storms to VCTS.
Otherwise, surface wind will turn to the northwest behind a front
that will move through early this evening, likely keeping VFR
conditions and northerly winds prevailing through the reminder of
the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
SHORT TERM...Cutter
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 152 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013


.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE REST OF THIS AFTN.

DEE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013/

DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY AND HEAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. FAIRLY
NARROW 75 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKENING. LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR MODEL SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...WITH BEST
CHANCES LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
WILL EAST/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 15/16Z. WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WINDY CONDITIONS SET UP FOR MOST AREAS BEHIND
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERN TIER
OF COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT MEET OFFICIAL CRITERIA...BUT
IT`S PROBABLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.

COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM WEST/NORTHWEST. TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH
FOR WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND EXITING MONDAY
NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ALREADY HAD 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS AND
IN GENERAL...LEFT THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP POPS UP 5 TO 10
PERCENT BASED ON MODEL CONTINUITY AND TIMING. PRECIP WOULD MOSTLY
BE OUT OF HERE BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST NEXT WEEK INDICATES COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...AND STILL NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNS OF A
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE JUST YET...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD FLIRT WITH MID/UPPER 30S.

DEWALD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

99/99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY AND HEAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. FAIRLY
NARROW 75 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKENING. LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR MODEL SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...WITH BEST
CHANCES LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
WILL EAST/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 15/16Z. WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WINDY CONDITIONS SET UP FOR MOST AREAS BEHIND
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERN TIER
OF COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT MEET OFFICIAL CRITERIA...BUT
IT`S PROBABLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.

COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM WEST/NORTHWEST. TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH
FOR WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND EXITING MONDAY
NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ALREADY HAD 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS AND
IN GENERAL...LEFT THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP POPS UP 5 TO 10
PERCENT BASED ON MODEL CONTINUITY AND TIMING. PRECIP WOULD MOSTLY
BE OUT OF HERE BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST NEXT WEEK INDICATES COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...AND STILL NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNS OF A
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE JUST YET...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD FLIRT WITH MID/UPPER 30S.

DEWALD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK

A LINE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS WILL BE VERY LIGHT RAIN AND
ENHANCED MID CLOUDS...THOUGH AN MVFR CEILING CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
NORFOLK AS SHOWN BY UPSTREAM REPORTS AT KEAR AND KODX. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

PEARSON

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 257 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY AND HEAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. FAIRLY
NARROW 75 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKENING. LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR MODEL SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...WITH BEST
CHANCES LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
WILL EAST/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 15/16Z. WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WINDY CONDITIONS SET UP FOR MOST AREAS BEHIND
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERN TIER
OF COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT MEET OFFICIAL CRITERIA...BUT
IT`S PROBABLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.

COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM WEST/NORTHWEST. TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH
FOR WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND EXITING MONDAY
NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ALREADY HAD 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS AND
IN GENERAL...LEFT THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP POPS UP 5 TO 10
PERCENT BASED ON MODEL CONTINUITY AND TIMING. PRECIP WOULD MOSTLY
BE OUT OF HERE BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST NEXT WEEK INDICATES COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...AND STILL NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNS OF A
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE JUST YET...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD FLIRT WITH MID/UPPER 30S.

DEWALD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK

A LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MARCH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TAF SITES. WE STILL FEEL...AND SHORT TERM
CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AND STABLE AIR OVER
EASTERN NEB SAMPLED BY THE 00Z KOAX SOUNDING. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY MENTION RA IN OFK AND LEAVE LNK/OMA DRY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT FOR EITHER. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY DECREASE BY LATE FRI MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AND VEER TO THE WEST.
SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE LIKELY AT ALL 3
SITES.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 1002 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THIS WEEKEND, HAS BROUGHT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
CHOSE TO UTILIZE THE LATEST RAP TO CONFIGURE THE CLOUD GRIDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RAP SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
THROUGH EASTERN NY TOWARD RME/SYR, PEAKING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
FORM OF LOW STRATUS. THE RAP TRIES TO QUICKLY PULL THE MOISTURE
BACK EASTWARD OUT OF RME LATE TONIGHT, BUT THIS SEEMS TOO
AGGRESSIVE.

TEMPS/WIND/TD FIELDS LOOK VERY GOOD AND WILL REQUIRE ONLY MINOR
UPDATES.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER NEW YORK HAS KEPT US CLEAR
AND MILD. THIS ALSO HAS KEPT THE MOISTURE OVER SRN PA TO OUR
SOUTH. AS THE HIGH FLOPS OVER AND BECOMES ORIENTED NE TO SW...AND
ALSO SLIDES SLOWLY TO COAST. OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH SO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO HEAD
BACK NORTH INTO NE PA AND THE SRN TIER OF NY. IN ADDITION...LOW
CLOUDS MOVG SW FROM NEW ENGLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
IN THE S AND SW. DEWPOINTS RISE SLOWLY SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE
MIDWEST NOW MAKES GOOD PROGRESS INTO NY SUNDAY THEN STALS AND
WEAKENS. WITH THE PUSH SUNDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO THE FAR WEST DURING THE AFTN. THIS NORTH TO SOUTH FRONT
ALSO FLOPS OVER SO THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE STEUBEN
TO SYR SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC
HANGS TOUGH LONG ENOUGH MONDAY TO KEEP THE FRONT AROUND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DIES OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING DYNAMICS
WITH THE FRONT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO UPSTATE NY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COLDER
THAN TODAY AS COLD AIR COMES IN ALOFT. MONDAY AGAIN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. TUESDAY SHOULD REBOUND
BACK TO THE U60S. ALL IN ALL A CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS MONTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH AS
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP CONTINUE THE SPELL OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO WRN NY/PA BY THURSDAY MORNING
PUSHING EWD THURSDAY TO OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL
DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND POSITIONING OF FEATURES. GENERALLY COOLER
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN E/SE FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, EASTERN
NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY INTO THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE KAVP/KBGM/KRME TERMINALS
BEGINNING 03Z-06Z THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES AROUND 07Z-
08Z. BY MID MORNING SUNDAY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT
KRME/KSYR WITH KELM/KAVP IMPROVING AROUND 18Z. AT KITH/KBGM MVFR
CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E/SE 5 TO 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MON...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS POSSIBLE WITH SOME IFR
CIGS TOWARD MORNING. IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTN.

TUE THRU WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EACH DAY...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS PSBL AT KELM.

THU...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...RRM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

ARC OF INCREASING CONVECTION CURRENTLY THROUGH CENTRAL FA RUNNING
FROM NW-SE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD.
OTHER BANDS OF CONVECTION CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW CENTER BETWEEN PIR
AND MBG. EXPECT THIS ALSO TO GET INTO THE FA AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
NNE. TOR WATCH IN EFFECT TIL 8PM ROUGHLY ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF FA.
WILL BE CHALLENGING AFTERNOON WITH LOW TOP SUPER CELLS AND POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES WHICH MAY BE CHALLENGING TO DISCERN FROM RADAR
IMAGERY. OVERALL CURRENT POPS IN LINE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION
SO NO CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE PCPN
CHANCES/COVERAGE...TEMPERATURES AND SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO CANADA OR WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS FAR
WESTERN FA WITH A BAND OF MAINLY SHRA LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF SD
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN FA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO DELAY HEATING THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND SHORT RANGE MODEL FORECAST. MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. RAP
AND HRRR HAVE A BAND OF RAIN ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS FOLLOWING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS SEEMS TO FIT
THE RADAR SHOWING A RAIN BAND CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SD. ADJUSTED
POPS TO DECREASE MENTION OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT
KEPT THEM HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVERE
MENTION BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MUCH WE DESTABILIZE DURING THE
LATE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

RAIN AND ANY SEVERE CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM...ALONG WITH WINDS.

WV LOOP HAS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
ENTERED OUR AREA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE MAIN PRECIP
HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE MAIN LOW. JUDGING FROM
THE RADAR LOOP AND THE RAP/HRRR...THINK WE SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FROM THE RAIN SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON
INSTABILITY...WITH 500-1000 J/KG WHILE SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS
DO NOT GO QUITE AS STRONG WITH SFC CAPE. STILL...WITH THE UPPER
LOW MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AT PEAK HEATING AND THE VERY
STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AND INCLUDED SOME SEVERE IN THE GRIDS. ANY SEVERE WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
SFC LOW. LAMP HAS THE SOUTHERN TIER GETTING UP TO 25-27 KTS
SUSTAINED FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST A
LONG TIME HOWEVER...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE
CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WELL
BEHAVED FOR A WHILE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH...THEN START
BLOWING AGAIN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS LATER PERIOD AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WHEN THERE IS NOT MUCH
MIXING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR BEHIND THE LOW BUT
INCLUDED AN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH IT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO MANITOBA TOMORROW...BUT MODELS BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF IT. THEY SEEM TO HAVE
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE WETTER ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH SOME PRECIP ALL THE WAY DOWN TOWARDS THE SD BORDER.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PRETTY COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPS...EXPANDED THE
LOW POPS WE HAD GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY QUIET DOWN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
IN OUR NORTHEAST...BUT OVERALL A DRIER TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS BY SUNDAY...AND MODELS START BRINGING IN SOME PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LEFT THE LOW POPS WE HAD FOR
SUNDAY...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL
PATTERN THOUGH TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL INCONSISTENT FROM THE
SLOWER 00Z ECMWF TO THE MIDDLE 00Z GEM TO MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z GFS.
NONE THE LESS AREA TO SEE THE NORTHERN PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS NEBRASKA MONDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON ITS NORTHWARD EXTENT WITH THE SOUTHERN VALLEY VERY
LIKELY AND JUST A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA FOR
RAIN IN THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SHOWERS LINGER LONGER ON THE
SLOWER EC AND GEM INTO TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH A 500MB TROUGH PERSISTING OR REINFORCED ON THURSDAY
WITH A CHC OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

TSTMS AND MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS FROM SD INTO ND. A
BAND FROM FAR TO DVL WILL SHIFT NORTH AND WEST AS IT WRAPS AROUND
THE LOW...GIVING A BRIEF PERIOD OF TSTM ACTIVITY AT THOSE
LOCATIONS...AND PERHAPS GFK...EARLY THIS AFTN. THERE WILL THEN BE A
BREAK BEFORE MORE WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND A SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN AFT 12Z SAT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...SPEICHER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 934 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE PCPN
CHANCES/COVERAGE...TEMPERATURES AND SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO CANADA OR WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS FAR
WESTERN FA WITH A BAND OF MAINLY SHRA LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF SD
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN FA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO DELAY HEATING THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND SHORT RANGE MODEL FORECAST. MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. RAP
AND HRRR HAVE A BAND OF RAIN ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS FOLLOWING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS SEEMS TO FIT
THE RADAR SHOWING A RAIN BAND CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SD. ADJUSTED
POPS TO DECREASE MENTION OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT
KEPT THEM HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVERE
MENTION BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MUCH WE DESTABILIZE DURING THE
LATE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

RAIN AND ANY SEVERE CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM...ALONG WITH WINDS.

WV LOOP HAS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
ENTERED OUR AREA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE MAIN PRECIP
HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE MAIN LOW. JUDGING FROM
THE RADAR LOOP AND THE RAP/HRRR...THINK WE SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FROM THE RAIN SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON
INSTABILITY...WITH 500-1000 J/KG WHILE SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS
DO NOT GO QUITE AS STRONG WITH SFC CAPE. STILL...WITH THE UPPER
LOW MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AT PEAK HEATING AND THE VERY
STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AND INCLUDED SOME SEVERE IN THE GRIDS. ANY SEVERE WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
SFC LOW. LAMP HAS THE SOUTHERN TIER GETTING UP TO 25-27 KTS
SUSTAINED FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST A
LONG TIME HOWEVER...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE
CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WELL
BEHAVED FOR A WHILE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH...THEN START
BLOWING AGAIN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS LATER PERIOD AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WHEN THERE IS NOT MUCH
MIXING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR BEHIND THE LOW BUT
INCLUDED AN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH IT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO MANITOBA TOMORROW...BUT MODELS BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF IT. THEY SEEM TO HAVE
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE WETTER ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH SOME PRECIP ALL THE WAY DOWN TOWARDS THE SD BORDER.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PRETTY COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPS...EXPANDED THE
LOW POPS WE HAD GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY QUIET DOWN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
IN OUR NORTHEAST...BUT OVERALL A DRIER TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS BY SUNDAY...AND MODELS START BRINGING IN SOME PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LEFT THE LOW POPS WE HAD FOR
SUNDAY...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL
PATTERN THOUGH TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL INCONSISTENT FROM THE
SLOWER 00Z ECMWF TO THE MIDDLE 00Z GEM TO MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z GFS.
NONE THE LESS AREA TO SEE THE NORTHERN PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS NEBRASKA MONDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON ITS NORTHWARD EXTENT WITH THE SOUTHERN VALLEY VERY
LIKELY AND JUST A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA FOR
RAIN IN THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SHOWERS LINGER LONGER ON THE
SLOWER EC AND GEM INTO TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH A 500MB TROUGH PERSISTING OR REINFORCED ON THURSDAY
WITH A CHC OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

CIGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. KDVL
WILL SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY ON BUT THE OTHER SITES WILL
STAY DRY UNTIL LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS TO VIS BUT SOME BRIEF DROPS TO 3-5SM
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS...THEY WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 654 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND SHORT RANGE MODEL FORECAST. MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. RAP
AND HRRR HAVE A BAND OF RAIN ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS FOLLOWING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS SEEMS TO FIT
THE RADAR SHOWING A RAIN BAND CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SD. ADJUSTED
POPS TO DECREASE MENTION OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT
KEPT THEM HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVERE
MENTION BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MUCH WE DESTABILIZE DURING THE
LATE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

RAIN AND ANY SEVERE CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM...ALONG WITH WINDS.

WV LOOP HAS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
ENTERED OUR AREA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE MAIN PRECIP
HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE MAIN LOW. JUDGING FROM
THE RADAR LOOP AND THE RAP/HRRR...THINK WE SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FROM THE RAIN SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON
INSTABILITY...WITH 500-1000 J/KG WHILE SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS
DO NOT GO QUITE AS STRONG WITH SFC CAPE. STILL...WITH THE UPPER
LOW MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AT PEAK HEATING AND THE VERY
STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AND INCLUDED SOME SEVERE IN THE GRIDS. ANY SEVERE WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
SFC LOW. LAMP HAS THE SOUTHERN TIER GETTING UP TO 25-27 KTS
SUSTAINED FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST A
LONG TIME HOWEVER...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE
CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WELL
BEHAVED FOR A WHILE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH...THEN START
BLOWING AGAIN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS LATER PERIOD AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WHEN THERE IS NOT MUCH
MIXING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR BEHIND THE LOW BUT
INCLUDED AN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH IT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO MANITOBA TOMORROW...BUT MODELS BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF IT. THEY SEEM TO HAVE
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE WETTER ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH SOME PRECIP ALL THE WAY DOWN TOWARDS THE SD BORDER.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PRETTY COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPS...EXPANDED THE
LOW POPS WE HAD GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY QUIET DOWN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
IN OUR NORTHEAST...BUT OVERALL A DRIER TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS BY SUNDAY...AND MODELS START BRINGING IN SOME PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LEFT THE LOW POPS WE HAD FOR
SUNDAY...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL
PATTERN THOUGH TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL INCONSISTENT FROM THE
SLOWER 00Z ECMWF TO THE MIDDLE 00Z GEM TO MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z GFS.
NONE THE LESS AREA TO SEE THE NORTHERN PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS NEBRASKA MONDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON ITS NORTHWARD EXTENT WITH THE SOUTHERN VALLEY VERY
LIKELY AND JUST A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA FOR
RAIN IN THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SHOWERS LINGER LONGER ON THE
SLOWER EC AND GEM INTO TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH A 500MB TROUGH PERSISTING OR REINFORCED ON THURSDAY
WITH A CHC OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

CIGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. KDVL
WILL SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY ON BUT THE OTHER SITES WILL
STAY DRY UNTIL LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS TO VIS BUT SOME BRIEF DROPS TO 3-5SM
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS...THEY WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1002 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL STAY
ANCHORED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CHANNEL A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH LIGHTER RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. UPPER LVL RIDGING IS LIKELY TO
BUILD INTO PA EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING FAIR WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z SAT...FROM FULTON AND
HUNTINGDON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO LEBANON AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR STREAMS...CREEKS...AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS IN CITIES AND TOWNS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL APPROX 19-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ANOTHER SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN
EXTENDING IN AN ARC FROM SCHUYLKILL COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
DAUPHIN AND ADAMS COUNTIES. BACK EDGE OF THIS AREA IS RAPIDLY
PUSHING INTO LANCASTER COUNTY PRESENTLY...BUT THIS SURGE SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5" TO AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN AND ARE ALREADY COVERED BY AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS.

NEAR TO SHORT TERM TRENDS ARE ENCOURAGING...AS OFFSHORE FEEDER
BANDS APPEAR TO BE ORIENTING THEMSELVES MORE EAST TO WEST AND
FOCUSING ON AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. RUC13 AND NAM12
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS OBSERVATION...TRACKING THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY TO THE MD BORDER...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO
LOCALLY 2 INCHES INDICATED STRADDLED THE PA/MD BORDER (ADAMS AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES).

SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY...AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS CURRENT WARNING HEADLINES RUN TO ~19
TO ~20Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET/HIGH PWATS REMAIN FOCUSED OVR THE LWR
SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SCENT PENN THROUGH THIS EVENING BASED ON
THE LATEST SREF...JUSTIFYING NEAR 100 POPS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A BLEND OF MDL QPF
/AND RADAR TRENDS/ SUGGESTS THAT TWO-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
WELL IN EXCESS OF THE MAX ENSEMBLE PLUMES BY LATE TODAY...AND
SHOULD BE APPROACHING AN INCREDIBLE TOTAL 7-8 INCHES ACRS PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ...ESPECIALLY INVOF KMDT.

A GENERAL STORM TOTAL OF 2-4 INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS COUNTIES JUST
WEST OF THE MIDDLE SUSQ MAINSTEM...AND THROUGHOUT THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE JUNIATA BASIN. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN /ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
END TOTALS/ MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS...THUS THE
REASON FOR EXPANDING THE FLOOD WATCH A FEW LAYERS OF COUNTIES TO
THE NW OF THE ORIGINAL AREA.

LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARREN COUNTY IN THE NW
MTNS...AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAURELS.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60F TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA...WHERE A RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL FALL.
MEANWHILE...WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE
LACK OF RAIN AND A DOWNSLOPING EAST WIND COULD PUSH READINGS TO
THE U60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS WESTERN WARREN CO.

THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN PLUME OF
DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MASON/DIXON LINE. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING INTO CENTRAL PENN
FROM NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WILL CREATE A MORE
SHALLOW/LOW CLOUD REGIME WITH JUST AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTNS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE
MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70ACROSS
THE NW MTNS WHERE SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS VERY GRADUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASING TREND IN THE RAINFALL...BUT STILL MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
DRIFTING WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA STUBBORNLY KEEP A LINGERING EASTERLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL PA THRU THE WEEKEND. SO DIDN/T CHANGE SAT/SUN FORECASTS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS CHC FOR LINGERING LGT RAIN/AND ESP DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SC COUNTIES THRU SUNDAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD RESULT IN MILD NIGHTS...AND HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S THIS WEEKEND /WITH COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF WITH ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVAP COOLING FROM
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.

GRADUAL TRANSITION TO BRIGHTER AND DRIER CONDS ARE LIKELY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHEN WE FINALLY LOSE THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWER CLOUDS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPS COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MON BEFORE THE
RIDGE FINALLY WINS OUT WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.

MODELS DIFFER BY MID LATE WEEK ON DETAILS AROUND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT. BUT LOOKS LIKE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES WED IN THE WEST AND THU FOR ALL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES OFF THE NC/VA COAST COMBINED WITH AREA OF HIGH PRES
IN NRN NEW ENGLAND/SERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG/MOIST
EAST/NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. RADAR SHOWS
PERSISTENT MOD RAIN BAND WITH EMBEDDED +RA FROM SRN NJ FOCUSING
RIGHT INTO CNTRL AND SERN PA. EXPECT MVFR-LIFR CONDS TO CONTINUE
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT BFD...WHERE -RA HAS FINALLY STARTED TO FALL FROM
10KFT MID-DECK. ANY IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW/LIMITED WITH MVFR
CONDS LKLY INTO THE AFTN ACRS CNTRL AND ESP ERN SXNS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...MVFR TO IFR IN AREAS OF RAIN/DZ.
TUE...VFR TO MVFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3.5 TO 5.5 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WITH 1 TO 2.5
INCHES FALLING SO FAR JUST SOUTHEAST OF A KAOO...TO KUNV...AND KSEG
LINE.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OF AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND
1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SPOKES OF ENERGY...AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF HEAVY
RAIN/LOW-TOPPED TSRA SURGE WNWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STATIONARY UPPER LOW LOCATED
NEAR KORF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY RAINFALL OF 4.02 INCHES WAS SET AT HARRISBURG
YESTERDAY 10/10 2013. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 1.50 INCHES
SET BACK IN 1894. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT
HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ026>028-035-036-
050-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
HYDROLOGY...CTP
CLIMATE...CTP







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 338 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE DRY SLOT CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE
CWA WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSING NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA...AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS A
MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. MAY SEE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
WESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES MORE NORTHEAST...AND A PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN.
STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS SHOULD MAINLY STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH COULD OCCUR FOR A TIME INTO
THIS EVENING. WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS
EVENING AS ADVECTION BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL AND WE ARE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE A BIT AT THE SURFACE. SO FOR NOW ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 03Z
SEEMS OK. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...AS IF WE STAY MIXED LONGER
COULD SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATUS WILL LIKELY REENTER THE CWA BEHIND THE LOW OVERNIGHT AS
WELL. THINK LOWS WILL END UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER RAW GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE MIXED STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOOKING AT READINGS IN THE MID
40S. STRATUS MAY LINGER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE INCREASING SUN THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14
CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINE AT THIS POINT...BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGING SLIDING
OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BUT COPIOUS SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LEFT MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND OPENS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...REACHING NORTHERN WISCONSIN
BY AROUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...MOST NOTABLY WITH THE ECMWF
SLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND LINGERING IT OVER OUR VICINITY
MUCH LONGER. AS IT STANDS...ALL MODELS POINT TO A VERY WET AND COOL
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW EMBEDDED NON
SEVERE STORMS. WINDS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE STRONG AGAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE TEMPERATURES DO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY...PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO REMAIN ENTIRELY RAIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH
VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE.

REMOVED MENTION OF SOME VERY LOW END POPS PRODUCED BY THE ALLBLEND
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THERE. BUT IF
THE ECMWF PANS OUT...COULD SEE WET AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LINGER INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
EXITING THE CWA TO THE EAST. MAIN ISSUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL
BE WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS CONTINUING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BEHIND IT FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH AND WE GET ANOTHER PUSH OF DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE SECONDARY SURGE
SHOULD BE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 45 KTS SEEM
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MAY ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MVFR STRATUS WITH THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSH. FOR NOW JUST
INTRODUCED IT FOR A PERIOD AT KHON WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST. BUT
COULD ALSO SEE IT APPROACH KFSD FOR A PERIOD THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THE ADVECTION BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL AND WOULD
EXPECT STRATUS TO BEGIN LIFTING AND DISSIPATING..WITH WINDS ALSO
WEAKENING SOME. BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW
THOUGH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-050-
     052>071.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WIND SPEEDS AND
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP CIGS ABOVE 2000FT
AND THIS IS CONFIRMED IN RUC MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS. STRATUS
WILL LIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON TO VFR BUT CUMULUS CIG NEAR 050 WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A RETURN OF MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 15KT TODAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN IMPACTING AVIATION INTERESTS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013/
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP HAS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
THE EAST COAST...THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. THE
LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 36
HOURS AS IT IS TRAPPED TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. WITH LITTLE DEVIATION EXPECTED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BE FORCED TO MOVE NORTH INTO CANADA
LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL
SOUTH TODAY BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE CWA TOMORROW. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN PLACES NORTH TEXAS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
WEAK WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND A FEW OF THE HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAA. WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A 10 POP. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE SLOWING DOWN ITS FORWARD
MOVEMENT IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE
PRECIP AMOUNTS THOUGH AND THEREFORE IS TOO HIGH WITH ITS POPS.
WENT CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/WRF GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE WEAK LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH NO SIGNS
OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE
EXTREMELY STEEP AS WELL SUPPORTING HIGH VALUES OF 0-3 KM CAPE. ALTHOUGH
THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE CWA IN A
5 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD BE BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS IN THIS
TIMEFRAME. LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP AND SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD
BE VERY LOW.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MOVING EAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THIS WILL BE THE
CATALYST FOR RAIN CHANCES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY FOR THE AREA. YESTERDAY
THE ECMWF HELD UP A PIECE OF ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH CAUSED
THE ASSOCIATED FROPA TO BE TWO DAYS BEHIND THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND
TH ECMWF IS NOW SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE IMPRESSIVE AND THE GFS IS PROGGING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO EXCEED 2 INCHES WHICH IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF
OBSERVED VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING TOO FAST AND STORM MOTION VECTORS ARE 260
DEGREES WHICH IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. FRONTOGENESIS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITHIN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER. WITH
HIGH MOISTURE...TRAINING OF STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
PERHAPS SOME BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT...PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD BE UPWARD OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH THE
FRONT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER...THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WITH THE
FRONT THAT COULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE OR DECREASE THESE TOTALS.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40S/50S
ONCE AGAIN.

HAMPSHIRE

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  72  88  70  85 /   5  30  40  40  50
WACO, TX              86  71  89  69  85 /  10  20  50  40  50
PARIS, TX             85  68  85  67  82 /   5  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            84  69  86  68  83 /   5  30  30  40  50
MCKINNEY, TX          85  71  87  68  84 /   5  30  30  40  50
DALLAS, TX            86  73  88  73  86 /   5  30  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  72  87  69  84 /   5  30  40  40  50
CORSICANA, TX         85  72  85  69  84 /  10  20  50  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            85  71  86  69  84 /  10  20  50  40  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  69  87  68  82 /   5  20  30  40  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

 1131 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

.UPDATE...
HAVE EXPIRED HIGH WIND WARNING AS CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE
UNFAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HIGH WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH NO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE SITES.  SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 07Z FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF PACIFIC COLD
FRONT.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS MUCH LOWER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.  NO LOW CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

UPDATE...
THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE HAS SHOWN THE NOCTURNAL CAPPING INVERSION
INCREASING IN STRENGTH WITH TIME WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. WITH THAT BEING SAID AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST CAN`T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO BE DRAGGED TO
THE SURFACE DURING CONVECTIVE DECAY.

CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
FURTHER NORTH. THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUC REPRESENTS THIS PRETTY WELL AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN THE AREA UNTIL 7-8Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUT WEST...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT. VIRGA SHOWERS OVERRUNNING THE DRY AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT GIVES RISE TO CONCERN FOR ISOLATED HIGH WIND GUSTS AS THE
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED AIR COULD DRAG HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. FOR THIS REASON THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS INTACT FOR
NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

AVIATION...
GRADIENT WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT AT KDHT AND KGUY.
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
ECHOES SEEN ON RADAR HAVE YET TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING IN FORECAST
AREA...YET CONVECTIVE GUSTS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL STILL PRODUCE
SEVERE GUSTS OF 50 KT.  PASSAGE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS.  NO
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRODUCTS ISSUED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 545.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

ALL SIGNS POINT TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PANHANDLES WITH
MULTIPLE SHOTS AT PRECIPITATION. HAVE UTILIZED A NAM/ECMWF BLEND
FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL PERIODS FOLLOWED BY AN ALMOST STRICTLY ECMWF
SOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES AS THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME.
PLEASE SEE THE 1208 PM AFD UPDATE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THESE WILL BE PLEASANT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST EVERYWHERE
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A LOW LVL JET WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NWD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH DEWPTS SURGING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S BY MIDDAY
SUN. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD INTERACT WITH
PWATS WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND PERTURBED SW
FLOW ALOFT TO GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
BOOSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SOME OF THE STORMS ON SUN COULD BE SEVERE AS MOST MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
BULK SHEAR. THE SUN SEVERE THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE CONDITIONAL ON
DIURNAL HEATING...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP. WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON THIS PERIOD AS ALL
WEATHER TYPES COULD BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
A PACIFIC/ARCTIC FRONT COMBO WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LINGERING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE ERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AS IT PASSES
THROUGH ON MONDAY. IF SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY AND LOW CLOUDS DO NOT
PRECLUDE DIURNAL HEATING...SVR WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MON
AFTERNOON IN THE ERN PANHANDLES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED ECMWF FOR THIS
PERIOD. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY...WITH WEDNESDAY
POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. A BRIEF WARMUP
COULD COMMENCE THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BUT THE TIME WINDOW SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND FUELS ARE GENERALLY STILL GREEN IN THESE AREAS. BEYOND FRIDAY...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/14






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

 1120 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH NO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE SITES.  SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 07Z FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF PACIFIC COLD
FRONT.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS MUCH LOWER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.  NO LOW CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

UPDATE...
THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE HAS SHOWN THE NOCTURNAL CAPPING INVERSION
INCREASING IN STRENGTH WITH TIME WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. WITH THAT BEING SAID AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST CAN`T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO BE DRAGGED TO
THE SURFACE DURING CONVECTIVE DECAY.

CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
FURTHER NORTH. THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUC REPRESENTS THIS PRETTY WELL AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN THE AREA UNTIL 7-8Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUT WEST...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT. VIRGA SHOWERS OVERRUNNING THE DRY AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT GIVES RISE TO CONCERN FOR ISOLATED HIGH WIND GUSTS AS THE
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED AIR COULD DRAG HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. FOR THIS REASON THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS INTACT FOR
NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

AVIATION...
GRADIENT WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT AT KDHT AND KGUY.
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
ECHOES SEEN ON RADAR HAVE YET TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING IN FORECAST
AREA...YET CONVECTIVE GUSTS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL STILL PRODUCE
SEVERE GUSTS OF 50 KT.  PASSAGE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS.  NO
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRODUCTS ISSUED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 545.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

ALL SIGNS POINT TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PANHANDLES WITH
MULTIPLE SHOTS AT PRECIPITATION. HAVE UTILIZED A NAM/ECMWF BLEND
FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL PERIODS FOLLOWED BY AN ALMOST STRICTLY ECMWF
SOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES AS THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME.
PLEASE SEE THE 1208 PM AFD UPDATE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THESE WILL BE PLEASANT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST EVERYWHERE
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A LOW LVL JET WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NWD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH DEWPTS SURGING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S BY MIDDAY
SUN. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD INTERACT WITH
PWATS WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND PERTURBED SW
FLOW ALOFT TO GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
BOOSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SOME OF THE STORMS ON SUN COULD BE SEVERE AS MOST MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
BULK SHEAR. THE SUN SEVERE THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE CONDITIONAL ON
DIURNAL HEATING...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP. WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON THIS PERIOD AS ALL
WEATHER TYPES COULD BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
A PACIFIC/ARCTIC FRONT COMBO WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LINGERING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE ERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AS IT PASSES
THROUGH ON MONDAY. IF SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY AND LOW CLOUDS DO NOT
PRECLUDE DIURNAL HEATING...SVR WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MON
AFTERNOON IN THE ERN PANHANDLES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED ECMWF FOR THIS
PERIOD. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY...WITH WEDNESDAY
POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. A BRIEF WARMUP
COULD COMMENCE THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BUT THE TIME WINDOW SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND FUELS ARE GENERALLY STILL GREEN IN THESE AREAS. BEYOND FRIDAY...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...
     SHERMAN.

OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

03/14






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1056 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND ABOUT TO ENTER EASTERN
WISCONSIN.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE HEAVIEST
WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.  CANNOT RULE OUT
SHOWERS POPPING UP UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST BY PRESS ISSUANCE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A DRY SLOT IS PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN.  BUT OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN...A LARGE AND SOLID STRATO-CU FIELD IS MOVING
EAST.  SOME SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF THE CLOUD MASS UNDER THE COLDER
CLOUD TOPS.  SMALL PRECIP CHANCES/CLOUDS/TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SEE THE DRY SLOT MOVE OVERHEAD.  SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS A RESULT...WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A QUIET BUT BREEZY NIGHT.  FARTHER WEST...SOLID MVFR STRATUS DECK
OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  COLD ADVECTION/THERMAL
TROUGHING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER POINTS TOWARDS
THIS CLOUD MASS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SOME SHOWERS NOTED IN THE OBS...BUT
ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS SUGGEST DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT
OVER MN THAN WHAT WILL BE AROUND WHEN THE STRATUS DECK ARRIVES.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT STILL MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH.  WILL PASS CONCERNS TO THE EVENING CREW.  LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SUNDAY...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO...THE LOW STRATUS DECK
WILL BE EXITING NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A SCT CU DECK FORMING BY LATE MORNING
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

MODELS CONTINUE WITH SAME THOUGHTS THIS PERIOD AS AMPLIFIED YET
COLDER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER AREA AS RIDGE LIES OFF WEST COAST AND
DEEPENING TROF OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF CONUS. S/W ENERGY DROPPING SE
OUT OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST STATES EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OFF EARLY IN PERIOD IS FEATURE THAT BRINGS CONCERNS TO THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. STILL SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING BETWEEN MODELS AND
INDIVIDUAL RUNS OF MODELS. ECMWF SLOWEST WITH PCPN NOW HOLDING OUT
TIL LATER TUE. WITH SYSTEM CUTTING OFF IT WOULD SUGGEST A SLOWER
PROGRESSION. NEITHER GFS OR ECMWF IS REALLY FAVORED BY ENSEMBLE
MEANS SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR TUE AND WED. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF FOR LATER PERIODS AS IT PULLS ENERGY/TROF
BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES PER ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN SEEN YESTERDAY OR CURRENT OPS GFS.

IN NEAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO LEAD TO COLD NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE 30S OVER THE REGION...DROPPING TO BELOW FREEZING IN
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. PLEASANT FALL DAY EXPECTED MONDAY. EASTERLY
GRADIENT TO PICK UP AS LOW DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
MODERATE TEMPS SOME. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME MONDAY GIVEN STILL RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. HAVE BACKED OFF A
BIT ON POPS MON NIGHT AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS EVEN ON MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS HOLDING ONTO DRY WEDGE BETWEEN 900 AND 700 MB INTO
TUE MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

MVFR CEILINGS NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE
SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
ELSEWHERE. VFR WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......RDM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 639 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND ABOUT TO ENTER EASTERN
WISCONSIN.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE HEAVIEST
WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.  CANNOT RULE OUT
SHOWERS POPPING UP UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST BY PRESS ISSUANCE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A DRY SLOT IS PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN.  BUT OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN...A LARGE AND SOLID STRATO-CU FIELD IS MOVING
EAST.  SOME SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF THE CLOUD MASS UNDER THE COLDER
CLOUD TOPS.  SMALL PRECIP CHANCES/CLOUDS/TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SEE THE DRY SLOT MOVE OVERHEAD.  SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS A RESULT...WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A QUIET BUT BREEZY NIGHT.  FARTHER WEST...SOLID MVFR STRATUS DECK
OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  COLD ADVECTION/THERMAL
TROUGHING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER POINTS TOWARDS
THIS CLOUD MASS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SOME SHOWERS NOTED IN THE OBS...BUT
ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS SUGGEST DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT
OVER MN THAN WHAT WILL BE AROUND WHEN THE STRATUS DECK ARRIVES.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT STILL MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH.  WILL PASS CONCERNS TO THE EVENING CREW.  LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SUNDAY...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO...THE LOW STRATUS DECK
WILL BE EXITING NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A SCT CU DECK FORMING BY LATE MORNING
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

MODELS CONTINUE WITH SAME THOUGHTS THIS PERIOD AS AMPLIFIED YET
COLDER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER AREA AS RIDGE LIES OFF WEST COAST AND
DEEPENING TROF OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF CONUS. S/W ENERGY DROPPING SE
OUT OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST STATES EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OFF EARLY IN PERIOD IS FEATURE THAT BRINGS CONCERNS TO THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. STILL SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING BETWEEN MODELS AND
INDIVIDUAL RUNS OF MODELS. ECMWF SLOWEST WITH PCPN NOW HOLDING OUT
TIL LATER TUE. WITH SYSTEM CUTTING OFF IT WOULD SUGGEST A SLOWER
PROGRESSION. NEITHER GFS OR ECMWF IS REALLY FAVORED BY ENSEMBLE
MEANS SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR TUE AND WED. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF FOR LATER PERIODS AS IT PULLS ENERGY/TROF
BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES PER ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN SEEN YESTERDAY OR CURRENT OPS GFS.

IN NEAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO LEAD TO COLD NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE 30S OVER THE REGION...DROPPING TO BELOW FREEZING IN
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. PLEASANT FALL DAY EXPECTED MONDAY. EASTERLY
GRADIENT TO PICK UP AS LOW DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
MODERATE TEMPS SOME. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE CLOUDS FROM TIME TO
TIME MONDAY GIVEN STILL RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. HAVE BACKED OFF A
BIT ON POPS MON NIGHT AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS EVEN ON MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS HOLDING ONTO DRY WEDGE BETWEEN 900 AND 700 MB INTO
TUE MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

CEILINGS OF 4000 TO 5000 FT EXPECTED THIS EVENING
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY TO FLY WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......RDM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 635 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

AT 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT...WHICH BROUGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WAS JUST MOVING INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS FRONT BECAME MORE ACTIVE AS IT RAN INTO DEEPER MOISTURE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MINNESOTA AND IN WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST
INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WITH AN OPEN CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO
THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ALL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER FROST
WILL DEVELOP OR NOT. IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 1 KM WILL HAVE THE WINDS DROP
OFF INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. AS A RESULT...ONLY EXPECTING PATCHY FROST
IN THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW ONLY A COUPLE 100 FEET.
MEANWHILE THE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. WHILE
THE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...THERE IS MORE MOISTURE IN THE
LOWEST LAYERS. LIKE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FROST WILL BE PATCHY TO SCATTERED. WITH NO AREAS OF
WIDESPREAD FROST...THE CONSENSUS WAS NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY.

ON SUNDAY...A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HIGH PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL MIX TO AROUND 875 MB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL RANGING FROM 2 TO 5C...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES. THIS IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE NORMAL HIGH FOR MID-OCTOBER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP. THE COVERAGE LOOKS
TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TONIGHT. IF THIS CONTINUES...WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE 12.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OCCURRING...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING DEVELOPS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP MUCH OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN DRY. FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE AREA
WILL SEE MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.
AS A RESULT EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
PERIOD. HOWEVER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRY SLOT MAY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCUR...THERE WOULD
LIKELY BE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES
TO BE WHERE WILL THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL BE LOCATED AND HOW FAST
WILL IT MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. LIKE THEIR
PREDECESSORS...THE 12.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ITS
LOCATION AND TIMING. DUE TO THIS...KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RANGING FROM 16 TO 44 PERCENT. REGARDLESS WHETHER THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION...THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL TEMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 50S AND KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 DEGREES.

BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW-NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES INTO TOMORROW AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT ON INTO TOMORROW AS THE CORE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN. WINDS WILL GO FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST...BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AT 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

AT 3 PM...A 990 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PIERRE
SOUTH DAKOTA. DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...MSAS DATA SHOWS THAT THE
SURFACE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 4 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
MEANWHILE THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN 6 MB ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LAPS SHOWS THE TROPOSPHERIC FOLD EXTENDING DOWN
800 MB. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTHEAST...THERE IS A 1019 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
41 MPH /149 PM/ AT ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND 39 MPH
/133 PM/ AT THE DODGE CENTER AWOS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LATEST RAP SHOW THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE ECHO COVERAGE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED. THIS SHOWS UP WELL IN THE RAP...NMM...AND ARW. AS A
RESULT...KEPT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 15 TO 24 PERCENT
RANGE. ML CAPES GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM AROUND 500 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 200 J/KG AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO
THIS...CONFINED THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EVENING. LIKE
YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE TOO GREAT FOR THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...THUS ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
HAPPEN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GET SHEARED APART QUICKLY. WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THE
WIND GUSTS TO QUICKLY WANE.

ON SATURDAY MORNING...THE 11.12Z MODELS APPEAR TO BE JUST A BIT
SLOWER AT MOVING THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HELD
ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
THROUGH 12.14Z.

ON SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH BEING LOCATED MORE ACROSS IOWA THAN
OUR FORECAST AREA. THINKING THAT THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT THE TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AS
MUCH AS THEY WILL BE UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE HIGH. AS A RESULT...
KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 35 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN THE MISSISSIPPI AND WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP.

FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
LOW THAT A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN EXACTLY WILL
THIS OCCUR. THE 11.12Z EMCWF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN
AND SLOWER THAN SOME OF THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. AS
RESULT NOT EXACTLY SURE WHICH TIME PERIOD /MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY...
OR BOTH/ TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES /80 TO
100 PERCENT/. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...JUST STAYED WITH THE ALL
BLEND SOLUTION. A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...IT LOOKED LIKE WE WOULD
POTENTIALLY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS LOW...BUT THE
MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT WE WILL ONLY SEE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO
DEVELOP AT KLSE WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THANKS TO
THE DEEPER INVERSION IN THE VALLEY. GUSTS AT KRST SHOULD TOP OUT
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. THE GUSTS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO FORM AGAIN...BUT
EXPECTING THE GRADIENT TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT AT KRST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VFR
CEILING AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE ON THE SHOWERS IS
NOT HIGH SO STAYED WITH A VCSH AT BOTH SITES...THOUGH THE 11.15Z
RAP IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BRINGS ENOUGH FORCING TO GET THE
SHOWERS INTO KRST THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS SATURDAY
MORNING...THE WINDS ALOFT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTS
AGAIN AT KRST...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 1101 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

.UPDATE...

DENSE FOG SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIFR IN FOG OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE HIGHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO DO
NOT EXPECT AS MUCH FOG. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY 15Z.

HIGHER 925-850 RH FIELD SURGES NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WAS SHOWING ITSELF AS A DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD OVER
CENTRAL IL. SO AT THIS TIME WILL NOT FORECAST WIDESPREAD STRATUS
WITH THIS INCREASE IN RH. MAIN DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL FORCING FOR
SHRA/TSRA ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

PATTERN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH JUST A SLOW APPROACH OF
THE TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 50S
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTH.
LOW LEVEL RH PROGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN
RH ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAIN CONCERN
RESTS WITH HOW EXTENSIVE FOG WILL BE. SREF...WHILE WOEFULLY
UNDERFORECASTING FOG LAST NIGHT...IS SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER SIGNAL
TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG MOVING IN FROM THE LAKE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. THE 925-950 WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT.
OVERALL THE GRADIENT IN THE CWA REMAINS PRETTY WEAK. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH THE PATCHY FOG IDEA...THOUGH FEEL THE EASTERN CWA MAY BE
MORE FAVORED FOR A BIT MORE GIVEN LESS 925/850 WIND SPEEDS AND
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE. WILL PASS ALONG CONCERNS TO THE EVENING SHIFT.

WARM AND MILD DAY AFTER THE LINGERING FOG BURNS OFF. 925 TEMPS
MODIFY FURTHER INTO THE 15-17C RANGE. THE 925-850 RH SUGGESTS WE MAY
END UP WITH AT LEAST A BROKEN CU FIELD WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
PLACE. ANY FORCING FROM THE SURFACE FRONT OR UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
UP...BREEZY SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH 925 WINDS INCREASING TO 20
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.  COLUMN
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER ONE INCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING.  WHILE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAINS WELL WEST OF
THE AREA...SPOKE OF SHORT WAVE VORTICITY AND WEAKER WARM AIR
ADVECTION SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 200 J/KG.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA WL BE
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ERN CWA WHEN LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCD WITH
FRONT COINCIDES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF PASSING UPPER JET.
DRIER AIR SETTLES IN FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT ON SATURDAY AS MAIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS WISCONSIN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SATURDAY NIGHT.  CLEAR SKIES AND 925H
TEMPS FAVOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING FROST IN WESTERN CWA DUE TO
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BUT WL NEED TO WATCH THOSE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT
START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM AFFECTING SOUTHERN
WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
ON STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AS WELL AS TIMING.  AT THIS POINT...WL LEAN
MORE ON WEAKER SOLUTION THAT GEM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN GRAVITATING
TOWARDS OVER LAST SEVERAL RUNS...CONSIDERING LACK OF UPSTREAM KICKER
AND INCREASE OF SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY...AND DISREGARD GFS
STRONGER SOLUTION AS MORE OF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW.  HENCE SHOWER
THREAT SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
WED.

MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AROUND WED NGT...HOWEVER WITH
LINGERING UPSTREAM TROF...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY USHER COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA WITH AN INCREASING LIKLIHOOD OF FROST/FREEZING TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GFS 5-DAY 500H MEANS SHOW 150 METER
NEGATIVE ANOMOLY SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES CENTERED AT
00Z/18.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG REDEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 925-850 WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN
LAST NIGHT THOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. MOS AND HRRR VSBYS HANDLED THINGS PRETTY WELL LAST NIGHT
WITH SREF NOT SO GOOD. WILL TREND VSBYS LOWER GIVEN CONSENSUS
BETWEEN GFS AND NAM MOS DATA. HIGHER 925-850 RH FIELD SURGES NORTH
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS CURRENTLY SHOWING ITSELF AS A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD CNTRL IL. SO AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH THIS INCREASE IN RH. MAIN DYNAMICS
AND FRONTAL FORCING FOR SHRA/TSRA ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ052-059-060-065-
     066-070>072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 259 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CDT

EVENING UPDATE...

COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA
CLEARED EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERING IN FROM WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS ALLOWED WEST WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY...TO CALM IN
SPOTS. THE CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP...WHICH HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
TYPICALLY COOL SPOTS KRPJ AND KARR TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
GOING FORECAST LOWS WERE ALREADY BELOW MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT
DID TWEAK DOWN SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS A FEW MORE DEGREES TO OR
BELOW THE 18Z MAV. NORMAL COLD SPOTS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER VALLEY
CAN EXPECT UPPER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PRIMARILY LOW TO MID
40S EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT FOR AROUND 50 IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW NIGHT...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP WILL BE EVEN BETTER THAN
TONIGHT. CONCERNED THAT SOME AREAS COULD DIP TO THE MID 30S AND
POTENTIALLY SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON.

RC

//PREV DISCUSSION...
253 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG IT.  DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW
BRINGING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TUESDAY AND LINGERING SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM GREEN BAY TO AURORA TO
CHAMPAIGN AND IT WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THIS EVENING.  STILL ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BEHIND
IT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MAX CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG. THE BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO WI.  THAT BEING SAID A BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTN.  HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES. TEMPS WILL FALL
UNDER THE SHOWERS...BUT PLACES OUT WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A BIT
AS THE SUN BREAKS OUT AGAIN.

LOWERED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AND CLEAR SKIES.  WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE MIN
DEWPOINT...BUT WONDERING IF SOME ISOLATED AREAS WILL DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TOMORROW WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND CONTINUES EAST REACHING
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY LOOKS PLEASANT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLER BY THE LAKE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW.  IT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE BLOCKING LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
SLOWLY MOVING LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST.  IN GENERAL THE GFS
AND NAM ARE MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW...AND WILL
BASE THE FORECAST OFF OF THE SLOWER ECMWF PER THE WPC GUIDANCE
EVALUATION.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BUT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...AND THE LOW REMAINS NEGATIVELY STACKED
WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE LOW ALSO HAS JET
SUPPORT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY WHILE THE LOW
IS IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION.  THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY IS WEAK TUESDAY SO KEPT
JUST A CHANCE OF TS GOING...WITH AFTN CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 500
J/KG OR LESS.  MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...WITH PWATS OF
1-1.5 INCHES.

THE LOWS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.  GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A FEW DRY HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE LOW
WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE.

FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING A BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.  THEN BACK TO REALITY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

EXTENDED...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.  GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND WHERE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY.  FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A COOLING TREND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.  HOWEVER...THE JET REMAINS
OVERHEAD KEEPING THE MUCH COOLER AIR TO OUR NORTH.  IN GENERAL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN FOR LATE THIS WEEK...AND NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOOKING COLD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING PERSISTENTLY NORTHWEST
  BY DAYBREAK THEN NORTHEAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

ED F

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT 06Z AND DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE FROM SATURDAYS RAIN COMBINED
WITH SPORADIC DECOUPLING OF WINDS MAY RESULT IN DURATIONS OF
SPOTTY 3-5 SM VSBYS IN OUTLYING AREAS HOWEVER ORD/MDW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 6+ SM. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY WITH MODEST NW SURFACE WINDS TURNING
NORTH THEN NE AND AIDED BY A LAKE BREEZE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

ED F

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIR SKIES CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
  EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS BUT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
  SPECIFICS.

ED F

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.MARINE...
259 AM CDT

DEPARTING COLD FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASING WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REACHES
WISCONSIN BY EVENING AND PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. A RETURN SOUTHEAST FLOW THEN SETS UP BEHIND
THE HIGH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS ONTARIO AND TO WESTERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
SECONDARY LOW THEN DEVELOPS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

ED F

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1248 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CDT

EVENING UPDATE...

COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA
CLEARED EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERING IN FROM WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS ALLOWED WEST WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY...TO CALM IN
SPOTS. THE CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP...WHICH HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
TYPICALLY COOL SPOTS KRPJ AND KARR TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
GOING FORECAST LOWS WERE ALREADY BELOW MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT
DID TWEAK DOWN SOME OUTLYING LOCATIONS A FEW MORE DEGREES TO OR
BELOW THE 18Z MAV. NORMAL COLD SPOTS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER VALLEY
CAN EXPECT UPPER 30S BY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH PRIMARILY LOW TO MID
40S EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT FOR AROUND 50 IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW NIGHT...1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP WILL BE EVEN BETTER THAN
TONIGHT. CONCERNED THAT SOME AREAS COULD DIP TO THE MID 30S AND
POTENTIALLY SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON.

RC

//PREV DISCUSSION...
253 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG IT.  DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW
BRINGING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TUESDAY AND LINGERING SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM GREEN BAY TO AURORA TO
CHAMPAIGN AND IT WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THIS EVENING.  STILL ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT...AND WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BEHIND
IT. INSTABILITY IS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MAX CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG. THE BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO WI.  THAT BEING SAID A BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS AFTN.  HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES. TEMPS WILL FALL
UNDER THE SHOWERS...BUT PLACES OUT WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A BIT
AS THE SUN BREAKS OUT AGAIN.

LOWERED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AND CLEAR SKIES.  WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE MIN
DEWPOINT...BUT WONDERING IF SOME ISOLATED AREAS WILL DROP A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TOMORROW WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND CONTINUES EAST REACHING
SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY MORNING.  SUNDAY LOOKS PLEASANT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLER BY THE LAKE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW.  IT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE BLOCKING LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
SLOWLY MOVING LOW THAT PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST.  IN GENERAL THE GFS
AND NAM ARE MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW...AND WILL
BASE THE FORECAST OFF OF THE SLOWER ECMWF PER THE WPC GUIDANCE
EVALUATION.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BUT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...AND THE LOW REMAINS NEGATIVELY STACKED
WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE LOW ALSO HAS JET
SUPPORT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY WHILE THE LOW
IS IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION.  THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY IS WEAK TUESDAY SO KEPT
JUST A CHANCE OF TS GOING...WITH AFTN CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 500
J/KG OR LESS.  MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE...WITH PWATS OF
1-1.5 INCHES.

THE LOWS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.  GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A FEW DRY HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE LOW
WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE AT THIS TIME SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE.

FOR TEMPS...EXPECTING A BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
70S AS WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.  THEN BACK TO REALITY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

EXTENDED...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.  GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND WHERE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY.  FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS DRY WITH A COOLING TREND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.  HOWEVER...THE JET REMAINS
OVERHEAD KEEPING THE MUCH COOLER AIR TO OUR NORTH.  IN GENERAL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN FOR LATE THIS WEEK...AND NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOOKING COLD AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING PERSISTENTLY NORTHWEST
  BY DAYBREAK THEN NORTHEAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

ED F

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT 06Z AND DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE FROM SATURDAYS RAIN COMBINED
WITH SPORADIC DECOUPLING OF WINDS MAY RESULT IN DURATIONS OF
SPOTTY 3-5 SM VSBYS IN OUTLYING AREAS HOWEVER ORD/MDW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 6+ SM. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY WITH MODEST NW SURFACE WINDS TURNING
NORTH THEN NE AND AIDED BY A LAKE BREEZE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

ED F


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FAIR SKIES CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
  EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS BUT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
  SPECIFICS.

ED F

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...LIKELY SHRA WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.MARINE...
300 PM CDT

A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE INCHES IN EASTERN
MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA. NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST....REACHING
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO IOWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL VEER TO OUT
OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN ON ACROSS ONTARIO TO WESTERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TRS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 234 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
BEHIND A WEAK COLD AS HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF DPVA ZONE WITH
THIS VORT MAX AND PROXIMITY TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF WESTERN
GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
NARROW ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHEARING NATURE TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHORT WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SHOULD LEAD TO
EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALONG
WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PWATS DIMINISHING INTO THE 1.25 RANGE AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND STRONGEST MID/UPPER
FORCING SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE...AND THIS TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED THIS
EVENING. HAVE MADE NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO
DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND WANING
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. 18Z RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AXIS OF 250-500
J/KG MUCAPES TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOUTHERN TAIL OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLD TSRA ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. DID MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE -RW POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE
OF LINGERING WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS POSSIBLY SUSTAINING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA HIGH AND DRY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
ROUNDS THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND TAKES AIM ON THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON TIMING/SPEED OF EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH
12Z GEM SLOWER VS 12Z GFS. ECMWF IS FLIP-FLOPPING SOLUTIONS WITH NEW
12Z RUN VERY SIMILAR IN SPEED/LOCATION TO 12Z GFS. CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH IN SLOWING DOWN ARRIVAL ON TUESDAY TO BACK OFF POPS IN THE
EAST...BUT TO INCREASE TO LOW END LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE MOST FAVORED PERIOD. BEYOND THIS...TIMING
ISSUES ALREADY NOTED WITH TROUGH WARRANTS HOLDING ONTO SLGT CHC/CHC
POPS WEDS/WEDS WITH HIGHEST EAST WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER
LONGER.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS AGREEING TO SOME
EXTENT ON 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0 C. AS A RESULT...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL SETTLE IN AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURS INTO FRI AS
WEAK WAVES ROTATE THROUGH TO CONTRIBUTE MSTR...LIFT AND SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE INVERSION HGTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1201 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY...HELPING TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 1206 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

MUCH DRIER AIR FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD AS HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF DPVA ZONE WITH
THIS VORT MAX AND PROXIMITY TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF WESTERN
GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
NARROW ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHEARING NATURE TO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHORT WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SHOULD LEAD TO
EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALONG
WITH THIS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN PWATS DIMINISHING INTO THE 1.25 RANGE AS THIS
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND STRONGEST MID/UPPER
FORCING SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID CHANCE RANGE...AND THIS TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED THIS
EVENING. HAVE MADE NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO
DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND WANING
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. 18Z RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AXIS OF 250-500
J/KG MUCAPES TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOUTHERN TAIL OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLD TSRA ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. DID MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE -RW POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE
OF LINGERING WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS POSSIBLY SUSTAINING A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA HIGH AND DRY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
ROUNDS THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND TAKES AIM ON THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON TIMING/SPEED OF EJECTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH
12Z GEM SLOWER VS 12Z GFS. ECMWF IS FLIP-FLOPPING SOLUTIONS WITH NEW
12Z RUN VERY SIMILAR IN SPEED/LOCATION TO 12Z GFS. CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH IN SLOWING DOWN ARRIVAL ON TUESDAY TO BACK OFF POPS IN THE
EAST...BUT TO INCREASE TO LOW END LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE MOST FAVORED PERIOD. BEYOND THIS...TIMING
ISSUES ALREADY NOTED WITH TROUGH WARRANTS HOLDING ONTO SLGT CHC/CHC
POPS WEDS/WEDS WITH HIGHEST EAST WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LINGER
LONGER.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS AGREEING TO SOME
EXTENT ON 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0 C. AS A RESULT...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL SETTLE IN AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURS INTO FRI AS
WEAK WAVES ROTATE THROUGH TO CONTRIBUTE MSTR...LIFT AND SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE INVERSION HGTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1201 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHERN INDIANA TODAY...HELPING TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 525 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
CNTRL CANADA TO THE WRN CONUS. WITHIN THE TROF...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER NE MANITOBA...AND A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND WAVE...BKN/OVC STRATOCU IS SPREADING S AND E
ACROSS WRN UPPER MI. WHILE REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME -SHRA OVER FAR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ONTARIO...THERE ARE HINTS OF A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES FARTHER W INTO NE MN. IN FACT...A FEW OBS HAVE
REPORTED PCPN RECENTLY.

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW THIS MORNING AND PRESENCE OF SOME SPRINKLES
UPSTREAM YET...OPTED TO INCLUDE SCT SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER SPREADING
ACROSS WRN UPPER MI...DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN
EXPANSION OF STRATOCU THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THIS AFTN
SHOULD THEN LEAD TO CLEARING FROM W TO E. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT COMBINED
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 50-60PCT OF NORMAL WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT TEMP FALL...BUT TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD
OPPORTUNITY TO PLUMMET AT LEAST THRU THE EVENING HRS BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT. AS IN RECENT DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO BE REPRESENTED
BY THE BIAS CORRECTED GEM (OFTEN IT DOES A NICE JOB HANDLING
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS). EXPECT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. IF TEMP TONIGHT/MON MORNING DOES NOT FALL TO
FREEZING OR LOWER HERE AT NWS MQT...THIS YEAR WILL SET THE RECORD
FOR THE LATEST OCCURRENCE IN AUTUMN OF A MIN TEMP AT OR BLO
FREEZING. CURRENT RECORD WAS SET IN 1997.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

PERIOD STARTS 12Z MON WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 2C. SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OUT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY WARM UP...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING UP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE CWA AND PUSH THE SFC HIGH E...WHICH WILL CAP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

AS THE LOW MOVES TO SRN MN BY 12Z TUE...FGEN FORCING AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 600MB WILL MOVE INTO OR NEAR THE FAR WRN
CWA LATE MON EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
INITIALLY...THINK THAT DRY LOW LEVELS...AS INDICATED BY NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY UNTIL LATER MON NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS INCREASING OVER THE WRN CWA MON NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...INCREASING OVERALL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH
INCREASINGLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS.

THE LOW THEN MOVES TO CENTRAL WI BY 00Z WED...THEN TO NRN LOWER MI
/OR POSSIBLY FARTHER NE AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z/12 ECMWF/ BY 12Z
WED...WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING FROM JUST W OF
THE CWA AT 00Z WED TO THE CENTRAL CWA BY 12Z WED AND E OF THE CWA BY
00Z THU. 850MB TEMPS ON THE N SIDE OF THE SFC LOW /AND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/ WILL VARY FROM 3C TO 5 C OVER THE SRN CWA TO AROUND -1
OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS /WHICH ARE THE
MORE TRUSTED MODELS/ HAVE QPF SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY TUE
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT SO WILL BE INCREASING
POPS. WHAT WILL BE A BIT HARDER TO FORECAST IS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW LOW LEVEL FGEN BANDING ORIENTED W-E
OVER UPPER MI...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. OF
COURSE...ESPECIALLY LOW LEVEL...FGEN BAND LOCATION FORECASTING THIS
FAR OUT IS HAPHAZARD AS THAT BAND MAY BE FARTHER N OR S. THE BAND
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
THROUGH LATER TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING 24 HOUR QPF TOTALS TUE
AND TUE NIGHT OF AN INCH OR GREATER IN ANY PLACES THAT SIT UNDER THE
FGEN BAND FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPS FOR TUE LOOK A BIT
COOLER THAN MON WITH THE GREATER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

FOR WED...STILL GOING WITH THE 00Z/13 GFS AND 12Z/12 ECMWF /AND
SOMEWHAT WITH THE 00Z/13 GLOBAL GEM/ WHICH ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE 12Z/12 AND 00Z/12 ECMWF WERE BOTH SHOWING THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH WED INSTEAD OF TUE/TUE NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST RUNS
ALL AGREE IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE. SO...WED SHOULD
SEE PRECIP CLEARING TO THE E AS SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL NOT CHANGE THE
FORECAST COMPLETELY JUST YET...EVEN THOUGH IT HAS 50-60 POPS OVER
MUCH OF UPPER MI WED...SINCE MODELS MAY AGAIN CHANGE AND AM WEARY OF
GOING 100 PERCENT WITH JUST THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THINK THAT A
50/50 BLEND OF NEW MODEL DATA AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL COVER
THINGS ADEQUATELY FOR POPS. TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO TUE WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.

THE FORECAST BEYOND WED IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH EXACT DETAIL...BUT
GAINING CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL GENERAL PATTERN. DO AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT DRIER FORECAST FOR THU LOOKS TO BE IN
ORDER...BUT NOT READY TO GO COMPLETELY DRY JUST YET. PREVIOUS RUNS
OF THE MODELS THAT HAD THE LOW BEING SLOWER MADE FOR A MUCH WETTER
THU...BUT NEWER RUNS SEEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY THU.
WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. THE GENERAL TREND
THROUGH SAT IS THAT A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH INCREASINGLY DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. MODELS EVEN AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS FALLING AS LOW AS -7C BY LATE SAT. SYNOPTIC ENERGY FLOWING
AROUND THE TROUGH MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF PRECIP...WITH LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AS TEMPS GET COOLER...BUT WITH EXACT DETAILS OF WIND
DIRECTION AND TIMING OF ENERGY IT IS HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH
POPS. DO BELIEVE THAT FIRST CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FAR EXTENDED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AS DID THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THE MORE CERTAIN ASPECT OF THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S /AND MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 30S HIGHS/ ON SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

CYC...GUSTY UPSLOPE W FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY COLD
FNT IN TANDEM WITH MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL CONSPIRE TO
BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO CMX AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO IWD THIS MRNG.
EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. EVEN
THOUGH THIS WIND DOWNSLOPES AT SAW...OPTED TO BRING IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS THERE AS WELL GIVEN THE CYC FLOW/DEEPER MSTR SHOWN ON THE
INL RAOB. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR/MORE ACYC FLOW WL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES BY LATE MRNG. GUSTY WINDS IN THE MRNG WL
DIMINISH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEAKER PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC HI.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

W TO NW WINDS OF 15-30KT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AS PRES
GRADIENT RELAXES BTWN LOW PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AND HIGH PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LATE TONIGHT THRU AT LEAST MON
MORNING...THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 15KT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM W TO E
LATE MON AFTN THRU TUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
PRES LIFTS FROM THE WRN PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. BY TUE
AFTN...E TO NE WINDS WILL BE INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT
W TO E WED/THU AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE E.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...ROLFSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 1256 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THIS WEEKEND, HAS BROUGHT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
CHOSE TO UTILIZE THE LATEST RAP TO CONFIGURE THE CLOUD GRIDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RAP SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
THROUGH EASTERN NY TOWARD RME/SYR, PEAKING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
FORM OF LOW STRATUS. THE RAP TRIES TO QUICKLY PULL THE MOISTURE
BACK EASTWARD OUT OF RME LATE TONIGHT, BUT THIS SEEMS TOO
AGGRESSIVE.

TEMPS/WIND/TD FIELDS LOOK VERY GOOD AND WILL REQUIRE ONLY MINOR
UPDATES.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER NEW YORK HAS KEPT US CLEAR
AND MILD. THIS ALSO HAS KEPT THE MOISTURE OVER SRN PA TO OUR
SOUTH. AS THE HIGH FLOPS OVER AND BECOMES ORIENTED NE TO SW...AND
ALSO SLIDES SLOWLY TO COAST. OUR AREA GETS INTO THE RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH SO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO HEAD
BACK NORTH INTO NE PA AND THE SRN TIER OF NY. IN ADDITION...LOW
CLOUDS MOVG SW FROM NEW ENGLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
IN THE S AND SW. DEW POINTS RISE SLOWLY SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE
MIDWEST NOW MAKES GOOD PROGRESS INTO NY SUNDAY THEN STALLS AND
WEAKENS. WITH THE PUSH SUNDAY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO THE FAR WEST DURING THE AFTN. THIS NORTH TO SOUTH FRONT
ALSO FLOPS OVER SO THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE STEUBEN
TO SYR SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NW ATLANTIC
HANGS TOUGH LONG ENOUGH MONDAY TO KEEP THE FRONT AROUND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DIES OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING DYNAMICS
WITH THE FRONT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO UPSTATE NY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COLDER
THAN TODAY AS COLD AIR COMES IN ALOFT. MONDAY AGAIN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS. TUESDAY SHOULD REBOUND
BACK TO THE U60S. ALL IN ALL A CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS MONTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH AS
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP CONTINUE THE SPELL OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO WRN NY/PA BY THURSDAY MORNING
PUSHING EWD THURSDAY TO OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL
DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND POSITIONING OF FEATURES. GENERALLY COOLER
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... LWR CLDS (MVFR CIGS) WILL PREVAIL FOR
KAVP/KBGM/KELM/KITH EARLY THIS MRNG (THROUGH 12-15Z)...BEFORE CIG
BASES LIFT A BIT...AND VFR RETURNS THEREAFTER. FOR
KSYR/KRME...MAINLY VFR IS FORESEEN TDY. SE SFC WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST...AT 8-12 KT.

THIS EVE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH SE SFC WINDS
GENERALLY 5-8 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN THE MRNG (MVFR/IFR CIGS...AND -SHRA)...WITH
CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTN.

TUE AND WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS PSBL AT KELM.

THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1140 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

AT 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT...WHICH BROUGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WAS JUST MOVING INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS FRONT BECAME MORE ACTIVE AS IT RAN INTO DEEPER MOISTURE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MINNESOTA AND IN WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST
INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WITH AN OPEN CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO
THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ALL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER FROST
WILL DEVELOP OR NOT. IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 1 KM WILL HAVE THE WINDS DROP
OFF INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. AS A RESULT...ONLY EXPECTING PATCHY FROST
IN THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW ONLY A COUPLE 100 FEET.
MEANWHILE THE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. WHILE
THE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...THERE IS MORE MOISTURE IN THE
LOWEST LAYERS. LIKE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FROST WILL BE PATCHY TO SCATTERED. WITH NO AREAS OF
WIDESPREAD FROST...THE CONSENSUS WAS NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY.

ON SUNDAY...A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HIGH PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL MIX TO AROUND 875 MB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL RANGING FROM 2 TO 5C...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES. THIS IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE NORMAL HIGH FOR MID-OCTOBER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP. THE COVERAGE LOOKS
TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TONIGHT. IF THIS CONTINUES...WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE 12.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OCCURRING...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING DEVELOPS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. MEANWHILE THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP MUCH OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN DRY. FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE AREA
WILL SEE MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.
AS A RESULT EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
PERIOD. HOWEVER AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DRY SLOT MAY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCUR...THERE WOULD
LIKELY BE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES
TO BE WHERE WILL THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL BE LOCATED AND HOW FAST
WILL IT MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. LIKE THEIR
PREDECESSORS...THE 12.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ITS
LOCATION AND TIMING. DUE TO THIS...KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RANGING FROM 16 TO 44 PERCENT. REGARDLESS WHETHER THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION...THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL TEMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 50S AND KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 DEGREES.

BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW-NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AT LSE WHICH RAISES THE ISSUE OF WHETHER ANY
VALLEY FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS THINKING WAS THAT WINDS
WOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO THWART ANY DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH WINDS
CALM AT THE AIRPORT AND LIGHT HERE ON TOP OF THE BLUFFS AT THE NWS
OFFICE AND AT GRANDAD BLUFF THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE THAT THE FOG
WILL FORM. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NOT TOO HIGH AND SKIES ARE
CLEAR...IT IS JUST A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT/CALM ALL NIGHT LONG. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...HAVE JUST ADDED A BCFG TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

 824 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE COAST AND
VALLEYS THIS MORNING...MAKING WAY FOR SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEVADA WILL
BRING COOLING TODAY...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MOVING INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BRING WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER
WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE COASTAL AREAS. SLIGHT COOLING
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...AND IS
BLANKETING THE INLAND VALLEYS AND COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING
ACCORDING TO VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM MIRAMAR AND
SOME AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT
2500-3000 FEET DEEP. THE MARINE LAYER INVERSION IS ONLY ABOUT 5 DEG
C STRONG...AND LOCAL WRF AND RAP MODELS INDICATE GOOD CLEARING
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL NOON OR SO THAT THE COAST
CLEARS OUT COMPLETELY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH
DIGGING DOWN INTO NEVADA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS HELPED TO INCREASE
THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. THE STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW IS EVIDENT WHEN YOU SEE THE SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 8.2 MB...WHERE IT WAS ONLY 1.0 MB AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THUS...WITH THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW...WE ARE ALSO
SEEING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. LOOK FOR DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES LOWER IN MOST AREAS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO THE
TROUGH AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS THE
ONSHORE FLOW PEAKS.

THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS RISING...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MARINE
LAYER. ALSO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BUILD...BRINGING WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EACH
NIGHT/MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE MOUNTAINS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILLS WILL PROBABLY SEE NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND GUSTS IN
THE 15-25 MPH RANGE...AND LOCALLY TO 35 MPH. THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THAT...AS THERE IS ALMOST NO UPPER
SUPPORT...WITH 850 MB WINDS OF ONLY 10-15 KNOTS AND NO SUPPORT AT
700 MB.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY-SUNDAY IS LOW...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SHARPENING TROUGH MOVE NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...AND THEN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE 06Z GFS SPLITS A CLOSED-LOW OFF OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND BRING IT DOWN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING IT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. FINALLY...THE
00Z GEM HAS GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
THEN A CLOSED LOW MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. NO
MATTER WHAT SOLUTION YOU BUY...IT DOES LOOK LIKE OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME
COOLING. THEN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE ECMWF HAS WEAK TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNING...RESULTING IN WARMING AND
DRYING...WHILE THE GFS HAS MOSTLY NEUTRAL FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING. FOR NOW...FORECAST REFLECTS SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
131450Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 2000-3000 FT MSL AND
TOPS 3000-3500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST
COASTAL/VALLEY/FOOTHILL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUAL
DISSIPATION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z...WITH LATEST CLEARING VCNTY
KFUL...KCNO AND KONT. MOST VIS WILL REMAIN 5+ MILES EXCEPT WHERE
CLOUDS OBSCURE TERRAIN. STRATUS WILL RETURN TO COASTAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...WITH LESS INLAND COVERAGE AS BASES LOWER TO
AROUND 1500 FT MSL. KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA WILL HAVE CIGS TONIGHT BUT
KONT MAY REMAIN CLEAR. CLEARING WILL BE MUCH EARLIER MONDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE IN SOME AREAS.

MTNS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
MON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 849 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND AND LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...THEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
850 AM UPDATE...

WATCHING AREA OF CLOUDINESS HEADING SW FROM MAINE THIS MORNING.
11Z RAP 975 MB RH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE CLOUDS AND BRINGS IT
INTO EASTERN MA AND ADJACENT S NH BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...
LAST FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS SOME BREAKS ON ITS SOUTHERN
EDGE SO CLOUDS MAY NOT GET MUCH FARTHER S THAN CAPE ANN AND
MERRIMACK VALLEY. ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE CORE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN CHILLY...BUT SEASONABLE...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AFTER THE SLIGHTLY LOWER START MONDAY
MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
TODAY.

ISSUED FROST ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN
MA FOR TONIGHT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THINKING THERE WILL BE
PATCHY FROST ELSEWHERE NEAR THE ADVISORY AREA. CONFIDENCE IS JUST
NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THIS ADVISORY AS NEEDED. STAY TUNED IF YOU HAVE SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
* RISK OF SHOWERS LATE WED INTO THU
* MOSTLY DRY WX FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE E COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY LOWERING HEIGHTS AS PROGRESSIVE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN TROF MOVES INTO NEW ENG WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS. DIFFERENCES INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK REGARDING HOW MUCH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS LEFT FOR
POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT. 00Z ECMWF IS RATHER BULLISH ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DURING
FRI. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH
THIS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACTUALLY CLOSES IT OFF. THIS SEEMS TOO
ROBUST AND DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT OF ENSEMBLES SO WE FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS A LOW POP FOR FRI ACROSS E NEW ENG. LOOKING
AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENCES ON THE
AMPLITUDE AND ORIENTATION OF NEXT TROF MOVING INTO THE GT
LAKES...BUT IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
MODELS ALL INDICATE A BAND OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
INTERIOR MON NIGHT ASSOCD WITH A WEAK FRONT.  SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO TUE IN THE INTERIOR...BUT DRY WEATHER AS SFC
RIDGING NOSES DOWN FROM THE NE.  MOST SUNSHINE TUE WILL BE NEAR THE
COAST WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR. MILD TEMPS ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMALS...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TUE GIVEN LIGHT BL WINDS.

WED INTO THU...
SFC RIDGING EARLY WED WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE SOMETIME THU.  LOOKS MAINLY DRY
WED AS FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST...THEN
INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THU FROM WEST AND SOUTH
AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK TRIPLE
POINT LOW TO THE S. MAY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THU
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MILD TEMPS ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS CONTINUE.

FRI INTO SAT...
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE
AMPLITUDE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT WE LEANED TOWARD CONSENSUS OF
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR FRI/SAT. STILL MILD FRI THEN TEMPS TRENDING
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE SAT AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH TROF MOVING INTO
THE GT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR BUT WATCHING AREA OF MVFR CIGS
HEADING SW FROM MAINE...WHICH SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN NH AND AT
LEAST CAPE ANN LATER THIS MORNING. SEEING SOME EROSION ON ITS
SOUTHERN EDGE SO MVFR CIGS MAY STAY N OF BOS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. PER COORD WITH ZBW MAY AMD
FOR MVFR CIGS /025/ ARRIVING AT BOS AROUND 1430Z. SEEING SOME
EROSION ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD BANK...SO IT IS POSSIBLE LOWER
CIGS ONLY GET AS FAR S AS CAPE ANN THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS...BUT PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE IN CT VALLEY.

WED INTO THU...PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS WITH LOW PROB
IFR...POSSIBLY IMPROVING DURING THU. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY INTO
MONDAY...KEEPING WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT. ALREADY ROUGH SEAS WILL
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS TO BE LESS THAN 5 FT ACROSS ALL OF THE NEARSHORE NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THOSE TIMES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRES REMAINS OVER THE AREA. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...WINDS BECOMING S BY LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT THEN
SHIFTING TO WEST THU. SPEEDS BELOW SCA. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOWER
VSBY WED NIGHT INTO THU AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ003-004-026.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KJC
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...BELK/KJC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 745 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY EITHER SIDE OF THE
CO/KS BORDER EXCEPT DUNDY AND GREELEY.

WIND FORECAST THIS MORNING LOOKING SIMILAR TO WHAT I HAD SEEN
YESTERDAY. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM FROM THE NAM ALSO SIMILAR.
LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LAMP AND 12Z RUC ALSO SHOWING
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.

TWEAKED REMAINING GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS NOW DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. SURFACE RIDGING HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW MADE IT DOWN TO TEXAS.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO LOW ON THE WINDS AND TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE JET AXIS BEHIND THE INCOMING TROUGH. THE
GFS WAS THE CLOSEST FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET. OTHERWISE THE MODELS WERE
FINE OVER/NEAR OUR AREA. AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF
WERE A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. MODELS TENDED TO HAVE THE SURFACE
RIDGE TOO FAR EAST BY 06Z. THE NAM12 AND THE CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. MODELS MAY HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS NOW OVER TEXAS TOO
FAR NORTH. THE GFS...CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST
ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD ALTHOUGH OUTPUT WAS NOT TOO FAR OFF.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST INITIALLY. MODELS
LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT KICKS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST PLUS IT IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE GEFS TENDED TO
SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. STILL CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
OUTCOME OF FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST THING WILL BE THE WINDS. GRADIENT DOES
INCREASE PLUS 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE AS WELL. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT PLUS
SOUTH WIND IS JUST STARTING WITH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN. AS
SEEN BY THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT
ARE NOT VERY HIGH. SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NEW GUIDANCE WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT
MAXES AND DID NOT CHANGE THEM MUCH.

FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF BEST DYNAMICS...MOISTURE AND LIFT UNTIL LATE IN
THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO 12Z. ALSO ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE CAPPED UNTIL THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FINE BUT NOT INCREDIBLY
STRONG. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST 3 NIGHTS...AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. MORE THAN ONE MODEL INDICATES RATHER DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME
THE MAJOR LIFT ARRIVES. AS YESTERDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE EAST. SO PER REASONING ABOVE...AM
DELAYING THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS...MORE SO DURING THE EVENING...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 06Z. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MODELS AND
EVEN THE WPC QPF FORECAST HAVE BACKED OFF DURING THE NIGHT FROM WHAT
WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO THE TIME OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
ARRIVING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AM NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. IT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE PARAMETERS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE NIGHT.

ALSO PER DAY SHIFT REASONING ON VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...KEPT THE
PATCHY FOG GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE PREVIOUS PERIOD AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. POPS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER EARLY MONDAY
THAN THEY ARE SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY 18Z AS A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING. FRONT THEN
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
EASTERN HALF STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FROM DESTABILIZATION WITH A VERY
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT THE DAY SHIFTS TREND OF
HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MONDAY DURING THE
DAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO EARLY CLOUD COVER...THEN
POSSIBLE CLEARING FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. STAYED
NEAR TO WHAT WAS THERE WITH THE WEST AND NORTH THE COOLEST.

FRONT AND ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY, MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT THAT
IS STILL HERE WILL ALSO BE IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE. SO AM EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO END BY MID EVENING. GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISE BECOME RATHER TIGHT/HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OCCUR. ALSO DECENT MIXING OCCURS ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS WIND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WHAT IS PROBABLY THE COLDEST 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WINDS THEN BECOME
LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE IF THIS ALL PANS OUT.

THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THAN THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. THE
DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE THAT THE ECMWF PRODUCES A MEAN TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE
HUDSON BAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE GFS CARVES OUT A
DEEPER AND BROADER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE LOWER 48
ALONG WITH A SECONDARY CUT OFF LOW CENTER THAT DIVES WELL INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS PLACES THE INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS PLACES THE ENTIRE PATTERN
FURTHER SOUTH WITH SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD. TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION
OVER THE ECMWF SINCE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE PRODUCING A PATTERN THAT
AVERAGES OUT INDIVIDUAL FEATURES TOO MUCH...BUT TO REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...HAVE BLENDED THE
SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE A MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POP THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO NOT MADE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW SINCE OVERNIGHT
LOWS JUST BARELY APPROACH FREEZING. IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...THEN THE FURTHER SOUTH PATTERN WILL PUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAT WOULD FAVOR SNOW...BUT IT WOULD BE
DRY...SO STILL NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL. DURING THE
EVENING...THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS AT KGLD. ALSO BEGINNING AROUND 03Z...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. SINCE THIS WILL BE IN THE LAST QUARTER TO HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD PLUS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING/LOCATION OF
DEVELOPMENT...CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH A VCTS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT
     /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-013-027.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 733 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
CNTRL CANADA TO THE WRN CONUS. WITHIN THE TROF...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER NE MANITOBA...AND A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND WAVE...BKN/OVC STRATOCU IS SPREADING S AND E
ACROSS WRN UPPER MI. WHILE REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME -SHRA OVER FAR
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ONTARIO...THERE ARE HINTS OF A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES FARTHER W INTO NE MN. IN FACT...A FEW OBS HAVE
REPORTED PCPN RECENTLY.

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW THIS MORNING AND PRESENCE OF SOME SPRINKLES
UPSTREAM YET...OPTED TO INCLUDE SCT SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER SPREADING
ACROSS WRN UPPER MI...DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN
EXPANSION OF STRATOCU THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THIS AFTN
SHOULD THEN LEAD TO CLEARING FROM W TO E. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT COMBINED
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 50-60PCT OF NORMAL WILL SUPPORT EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT TEMP FALL...BUT TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD
OPPORTUNITY TO PLUMMET AT LEAST THRU THE EVENING HRS BEFORE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT. AS IN RECENT DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO BE REPRESENTED
BY THE BIAS CORRECTED GEM (OFTEN IT DOES A NICE JOB HANDLING
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS). EXPECT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. IF TEMP TONIGHT/MON MORNING DOES NOT FALL TO
FREEZING OR LOWER HERE AT NWS MQT...THIS YEAR WILL SET THE RECORD
FOR THE LATEST OCCURRENCE IN AUTUMN OF A MIN TEMP AT OR BLO
FREEZING. CURRENT RECORD WAS SET IN 1997.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

PERIOD STARTS 12Z MON WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE CWA WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 2C. SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OUT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY WARM UP...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING UP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE CWA AND PUSH THE SFC HIGH E...WHICH WILL CAP HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

AS THE LOW MOVES TO SRN MN BY 12Z TUE...FGEN FORCING AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 600MB WILL MOVE INTO OR NEAR THE FAR WRN
CWA LATE MON EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
INITIALLY...THINK THAT DRY LOW LEVELS...AS INDICATED BY NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY UNTIL LATER MON NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS INCREASING OVER THE WRN CWA MON NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER...INCREASING OVERALL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH
INCREASINGLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS.

THE LOW THEN MOVES TO CENTRAL WI BY 00Z WED...THEN TO NRN LOWER MI
/OR POSSIBLY FARTHER NE AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z/12 ECMWF/ BY 12Z
WED...WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING FROM JUST W OF
THE CWA AT 00Z WED TO THE CENTRAL CWA BY 12Z WED AND E OF THE CWA BY
00Z THU. 850MB TEMPS ON THE N SIDE OF THE SFC LOW /AND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/ WILL VARY FROM 3C TO 5 C OVER THE SRN CWA TO AROUND -1
OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS /WHICH ARE THE
MORE TRUSTED MODELS/ HAVE QPF SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY TUE
EVENING...AND HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT SO WILL BE INCREASING
POPS. WHAT WILL BE A BIT HARDER TO FORECAST IS WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW LOW LEVEL FGEN BANDING ORIENTED W-E
OVER UPPER MI...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. OF
COURSE...ESPECIALLY LOW LEVEL...FGEN BAND LOCATION FORECASTING THIS
FAR OUT IS HAPHAZARD AS THAT BAND MAY BE FARTHER N OR S. THE BAND
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
THROUGH LATER TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING 24 HOUR QPF TOTALS TUE
AND TUE NIGHT OF AN INCH OR GREATER IN ANY PLACES THAT SIT UNDER THE
FGEN BAND FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPS FOR TUE LOOK A BIT
COOLER THAN MON WITH THE GREATER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

FOR WED...STILL GOING WITH THE 00Z/13 GFS AND 12Z/12 ECMWF /AND
SOMEWHAT WITH THE 00Z/13 GLOBAL GEM/ WHICH ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE 12Z/12 AND 00Z/12 ECMWF WERE BOTH SHOWING THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH WED INSTEAD OF TUE/TUE NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST RUNS
ALL AGREE IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE. SO...WED SHOULD
SEE PRECIP CLEARING TO THE E AS SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL NOT CHANGE THE
FORECAST COMPLETELY JUST YET...EVEN THOUGH IT HAS 50-60 POPS OVER
MUCH OF UPPER MI WED...SINCE MODELS MAY AGAIN CHANGE AND AM WEARY OF
GOING 100 PERCENT WITH JUST THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THINK THAT A
50/50 BLEND OF NEW MODEL DATA AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL COVER
THINGS ADEQUATELY FOR POPS. TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO TUE WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.

THE FORECAST BEYOND WED IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH EXACT DETAIL...BUT
GAINING CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL GENERAL PATTERN. DO AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT DRIER FORECAST FOR THU LOOKS TO BE IN
ORDER...BUT NOT READY TO GO COMPLETELY DRY JUST YET. PREVIOUS RUNS
OF THE MODELS THAT HAD THE LOW BEING SLOWER MADE FOR A MUCH WETTER
THU...BUT NEWER RUNS SEEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY THU.
WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. THE GENERAL TREND
THROUGH SAT IS THAT A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH INCREASINGLY DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. MODELS EVEN AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS FALLING AS LOW AS -7C BY LATE SAT. SYNOPTIC ENERGY FLOWING
AROUND THE TROUGH MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF PRECIP...WITH LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AS TEMPS GET COOLER...BUT WITH EXACT DETAILS OF WIND
DIRECTION AND TIMING OF ENERGY IT IS HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH
POPS. DO BELIEVE THAT FIRST CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FAR EXTENDED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST AS DID THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THE MORE CERTAIN ASPECT OF THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S /AND MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 30S HIGHS/ ON SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

CYCLONIC FLOW/LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING NE THRU NRN ONTARIO MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS OR SO AT KCMX/KSAW. OTHERWISE...BKN STRATOCU
WITH BASES GENERALLY 3500-4500FT WILL CLEAR OUT FROM W TO E THIS
AFTN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO THE AFTN HRS...MAINLY AT KCMX WHICH
IS MORE EXPOSED TO W/NW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

W TO NW WINDS OF 15-30KT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AS PRES
GRADIENT RELAXES BTWN LOW PRES OVER HUDSON BAY AND HIGH PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LATE TONIGHT THRU AT LEAST MON
MORNING...THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 15KT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM W TO E
LATE MON AFTN THRU TUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
PRES LIFTS FROM THE WRN PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. BY TUE
AFTN...E TO NE WINDS WILL BE INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT
W TO E WED/THU AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE E.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 1055 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FROM NEAR AND WEST OF CHILDRESS
INTO HARMON AND GREER COUNTIES OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH
AND CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE LUBBOCK AND PLAINVIEW AREA.
THE HRRR IS UNAVAILABLE TODAY AGAIN AND THE AVAILABLE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO BE OF LITTLE AID TODAY AS NONE HAVE
CORRECTLY PROJECTED THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE RAP IS THE CLOSEST
BUT IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE UPDATED THE
POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS... BUT HAVE LEFT
THE AFTERNOON POPS ALONE FOR NOW. WILL READDRESS THOSE AFTERNOON
POPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH OVER
THE TOP OF A SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BECOMING
NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME IFR
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL INTO WESTERN TEXAS. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
RESPOND TO NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY LOCATIONS
NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
RAIN. BETTER CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TODAY AND THEN
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS SFC FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL WAA ADVECTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HAVE
CONT TO TREND HIGHER WITH PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
WITH AREAS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR THIS
TO OCCUR.

AS THIS DISTURBANCE LIFTS TOWARD THE THE NORTHEAST LATE
MONDAY... A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH THROUGH
OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
SOUTH WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN/EVENING.

A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED/WED
EVENING AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER AS LOWER LEVELS WILL BE LACKING RICHER
MOISTURE... DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

BEYOND WED THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WRT TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND RAIN POSSIBILITIES.
WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS FRI ACROSS THE WEST AS THERE IS SOME
SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE
WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  62  71  58 /  30  60  90  60
HOBART OK         74  62  74  56 /  50  70  80  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  66  75  61 /  50  70  90  60
GAGE OK           71  60  75  46 /  30  70  70  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  61  70  55 /  20  50  80  60
DURANT OK         79  63  72  66 /  40  60  90  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 152 PM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY. MAY SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH BUT
CONFIDENCE IN 45 TO 50 MPH GUSTS HAS DIMINISHED DESPITE FAVORABLE
WINDS ALOFT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY EITHER SIDE OF THE
CO/KS BORDER EXCEPT DUNDY AND GREELEY.

WIND FORECAST THIS MORNING LOOKING SIMILAR TO WHAT I HAD SEEN
YESTERDAY. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM FROM THE NAM ALSO SIMILAR.
LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LAMP AND 12Z RUC ALSO SHOWING
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.

TWEAKED REMAINING GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS NOW DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. SURFACE RIDGING HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW MADE IT DOWN TO TEXAS.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO LOW ON THE WINDS AND TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE JET AXIS BEHIND THE INCOMING TROUGH. THE
GFS WAS THE CLOSEST FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET. OTHERWISE THE MODELS WERE
FINE OVER/NEAR OUR AREA. AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF
WERE A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. MODELS TENDED TO HAVE THE SURFACE
RIDGE TOO FAR EAST BY 06Z. THE NAM12 AND THE CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. MODELS MAY HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS NOW OVER TEXAS TOO
FAR NORTH. THE GFS...CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST
ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD ALTHOUGH OUTPUT WAS NOT TOO FAR OFF.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST INITIALLY. MODELS
LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT KICKS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST PLUS IT IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE GEFS TENDED TO
SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. STILL CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
OUTCOME OF FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST THING WILL BE THE WINDS. GRADIENT DOES
INCREASE PLUS 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE AS WELL. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT PLUS
SOUTH WIND IS JUST STARTING WITH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN. AS
SEEN BY THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT
ARE NOT VERY HIGH. SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NEW GUIDANCE WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT
MAXES AND DID NOT CHANGE THEM MUCH.

FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF BEST DYNAMICS...MOISTURE AND LIFT UNTIL LATE IN
THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO 12Z. ALSO ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE CAPPED UNTIL THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FINE BUT NOT INCREDIBLY
STRONG. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST 3 NIGHTS...AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. MORE THAN ONE MODEL INDICATES RATHER DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME
THE MAJOR LIFT ARRIVES. AS YESTERDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE EAST. SO PER REASONING ABOVE...AM
DELAYING THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS...MORE SO DURING THE EVENING...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 06Z. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MODELS AND
EVEN THE WPC QPF FORECAST HAVE BACKED OFF DURING THE NIGHT FROM WHAT
WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO THE TIME OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
ARRIVING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AM NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. IT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE PARAMETERS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE NIGHT.

ALSO PER DAY SHIFT REASONING ON VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...KEPT THE
PATCHY FOG GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE PREVIOUS PERIOD AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. POPS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER EARLY MONDAY
THAN THEY ARE SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY 18Z AS A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING. FRONT THEN
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
EASTERN HALF STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FROM DESTABILIZATION WITH A VERY
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT THE DAY SHIFTS TREND OF
HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MONDAY DURING THE
DAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO EARLY CLOUD COVER...THEN
POSSIBLE CLEARING FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. STAYED
NEAR TO WHAT WAS THERE WITH THE WEST AND NORTH THE COOLEST.

FRONT AND ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY, MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT THAT
IS STILL HERE WILL ALSO BE IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE. SO AM EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO END BY MID EVENING. GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISE BECOME RATHER TIGHT/HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OCCUR. ALSO DECENT MIXING OCCURS ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS WIND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WHAT IS PROBABLY THE COLDEST 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WINDS THEN BECOME
LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE IF THIS ALL PANS OUT.

THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THAN THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. THE
DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE THAT THE ECMWF PRODUCES A MEAN TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE
HUDSON BAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE GFS CARVES OUT A
DEEPER AND BROADER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE LOWER 48
ALONG WITH A SECONDARY CUT OFF LOW CENTER THAT DIVES WELL INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS PLACES THE INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS PLACES THE ENTIRE PATTERN
FURTHER SOUTH WITH SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD. TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION
OVER THE ECMWF SINCE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE PRODUCING A PATTERN THAT
AVERAGES OUT INDIVIDUAL FEATURES TOO MUCH...BUT TO REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...HAVE BLENDED THE
SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE A MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POP THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO NOT MADE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW SINCE OVERNIGHT
LOWS JUST BARELY APPROACH FREEZING. IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...THEN THE FURTHER SOUTH PATTERN WILL PUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAT WOULD FAVOR SNOW...BUT IT WOULD BE
DRY...SO STILL NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH 01Z BEFORE
CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR FROM 02Z-08Z THEN IFR/LIFR FROM 09Z-15Z.
CIGS/VIS SLOWLY IMPROVE AT KGLD BY 15Z WITH MVFR CIGS THEN QUICKLY
VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KMCK MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY
17Z. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. DRIZZLE AND FOG EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT KGLD WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 30-35KTS TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KTS. AT KMCK SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 30-35KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-25KTS EARLY
TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT 13-15KT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THEN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1120 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY EITHER SIDE OF THE
CO/KS BORDER EXCEPT DUNDY AND GREELEY.

WIND FORECAST THIS MORNING LOOKING SIMILAR TO WHAT I HAD SEEN
YESTERDAY. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM FROM THE NAM ALSO SIMILAR.
LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LAMP AND 12Z RUC ALSO SHOWING
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.

TWEAKED REMAINING GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS NOW DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. SURFACE RIDGING HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW MADE IT DOWN TO TEXAS.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO LOW ON THE WINDS AND TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE JET AXIS BEHIND THE INCOMING TROUGH. THE
GFS WAS THE CLOSEST FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET. OTHERWISE THE MODELS WERE
FINE OVER/NEAR OUR AREA. AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF
WERE A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. MODELS TENDED TO HAVE THE SURFACE
RIDGE TOO FAR EAST BY 06Z. THE NAM12 AND THE CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. MODELS MAY HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS NOW OVER TEXAS TOO
FAR NORTH. THE GFS...CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST
ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD ALTHOUGH OUTPUT WAS NOT TOO FAR OFF.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST INITIALLY. MODELS
LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT KICKS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST PLUS IT IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE GEFS TENDED TO
SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. STILL CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
OUTCOME OF FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST THING WILL BE THE WINDS. GRADIENT DOES
INCREASE PLUS 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE AS WELL. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT PLUS
SOUTH WIND IS JUST STARTING WITH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN. AS
SEEN BY THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT
ARE NOT VERY HIGH. SO KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. NEW GUIDANCE WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT
MAXES AND DID NOT CHANGE THEM MUCH.

FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF BEST DYNAMICS...MOISTURE AND LIFT UNTIL LATE IN
THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO 12Z. ALSO ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE CAPPED UNTIL THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FINE BUT NOT INCREDIBLY
STRONG. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST 3 NIGHTS...AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. MORE THAN ONE MODEL INDICATES RATHER DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME
THE MAJOR LIFT ARRIVES. AS YESTERDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE EAST. SO PER REASONING ABOVE...AM
DELAYING THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS...MORE SO DURING THE EVENING...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 06Z. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MODELS AND
EVEN THE WPC QPF FORECAST HAVE BACKED OFF DURING THE NIGHT FROM WHAT
WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO THE TIME OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
ARRIVING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AM NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. IT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE PARAMETERS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE NIGHT.

ALSO PER DAY SHIFT REASONING ON VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...KEPT THE
PATCHY FOG GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE PREVIOUS PERIOD AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. POPS ARE ACTUALLY HIGHER EARLY MONDAY
THAN THEY ARE SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE MOSTLY DONE BY 18Z AS A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING. FRONT THEN
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
EASTERN HALF STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FROM DESTABILIZATION WITH A VERY
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO KEPT THE DAY SHIFTS TREND OF
HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MONDAY DURING THE
DAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO EARLY CLOUD COVER...THEN
POSSIBLE CLEARING FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. STAYED
NEAR TO WHAT WAS THERE WITH THE WEST AND NORTH THE COOLEST.

FRONT AND ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE EASTERN END
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY, MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT THAT
IS STILL HERE WILL ALSO BE IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE. SO AM EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO END BY MID EVENING. GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE
RISE BECOME RATHER TIGHT/HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OCCUR. ALSO DECENT MIXING OCCURS ABOUT THE SAME
TIME. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS WIND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WHAT IS PROBABLY THE COLDEST 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WINDS THEN BECOME
LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE IF THIS ALL PANS OUT.

THANKS TO ALL THAT COLLABORATED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THAN THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. THE
DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE THAT THE ECMWF PRODUCES A MEAN TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE
HUDSON BAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE GFS CARVES OUT A
DEEPER AND BROADER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE LOWER 48
ALONG WITH A SECONDARY CUT OFF LOW CENTER THAT DIVES WELL INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS PLACES THE INDIVIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS PLACES THE ENTIRE PATTERN
FURTHER SOUTH WITH SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD. TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION
OVER THE ECMWF SINCE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE PRODUCING A PATTERN THAT
AVERAGES OUT INDIVIDUAL FEATURES TOO MUCH...BUT TO REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...HAVE BLENDED THE
SOLUTIONS TO INCLUDE A MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POP THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO NOT MADE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW SINCE OVERNIGHT
LOWS JUST BARELY APPROACH FREEZING. IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...THEN THE FURTHER SOUTH PATTERN WILL PUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAT WOULD FAVOR SNOW...BUT IT WOULD BE
DRY...SO STILL NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH 01Z BEFORE
CONDITIONS WORSEN TO MVFR FROM 02Z-08Z THEN IFR/LIFR FROM 09Z-15Z.
CIGS/VIS SLOWLY IMPROVE AT KGLD BY 15Z WITH MVFR CIGS THEN QUICKLY
VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KMCK MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY
17Z. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. DRIZZLE AND FOG EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT KGLD WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 30-35KTS TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KTS. AT KMCK SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 30-35KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-25KTS EARLY
TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT 13-15KT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THEN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     013-027.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 1218 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.AVIATION... MVFR CIGS HAVE NOW SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NW AND
WILL REACH THERE BY LATE AFTN. SHOWERS/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS WAA/ISENT LIFT INCREASES NORTH OF
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FROM NEAR AND WEST OF CHILDRESS
INTO HARMON AND GREER COUNTIES OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH
AND CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE LUBBOCK AND PLAINVIEW AREA.
THE HRRR IS UNAVAILABLE TODAY AGAIN AND THE AVAILABLE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO BE OF LITTLE AID TODAY AS NONE HAVE
CORRECTLY PROJECTED THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE RAP IS THE CLOSEST
BUT IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE UPDATED THE
POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS... BUT HAVE LEFT
THE AFTERNOON POPS ALONE FOR NOW. WILL READDRESS THOSE AFTERNOON
POPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE FORECAST
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH OVER
THE TOP OF A SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BECOMING
NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME IFR
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL INTO WESTERN TEXAS. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
RESPOND TO NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY LOCATIONS
NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME
RAIN. BETTER CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TODAY AND THEN
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS SFC FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND LOW
LEVEL WAA ADVECTION BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HAVE
CONT TO TREND HIGHER WITH PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
WITH AREAS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR THIS
TO OCCUR.

AS THIS DISTURBANCE LIFTS TOWARD THE THE NORTHEAST LATE
MONDAY... A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH THROUGH
OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
SOUTH WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTN/EVENING.

A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED/WED
EVENING AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER AS LOWER LEVELS WILL BE LACKING RICHER
MOISTURE... DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

BEYOND WED THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WRT TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND RAIN POSSIBILITIES.
WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS FRI ACROSS THE WEST AS THERE IS SOME
SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE
WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  62  71  58 /  30  60  90  60
HOBART OK         74  62  74  56 /  50  70  80  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  66  75  61 /  50  70  90  60
GAGE OK           71  60  75  46 /  30  70  70  30
PONCA CITY OK     74  61  70  55 /  20  50  80  60
DURANT OK         79  63  72  66 /  40  60  90  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND THERMAL
TROUGHING HAVE KEPT A STUBBORN STRATO-CU FIELD OVER THE NE THIRD
OF THE STATE...THOUGH ITS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING NE OVER THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SO WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CLOUDS...TEMPS AND FROST HEADLINES.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHOULD SEE HIGH CIRRUS MOVE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...WHILE
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
LATE.  SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE CLOUDS MOVING INLAND THAT COULD MESS
AROUND WITH FROST FORMATION OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE 5 KTS OR UNDER...AND LOCAL
DATA SUGGESTS LAND BREEZES WILL DEVELOP THAT WILL KEEP LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS OFFSHORE.  AS A RESULT...WILL LOWER TEMPS OVER EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF
FROST SO WITH COLLAB FROM OTHER OFFICES...WILL HOIST A FROST
ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR DOOR COUNTY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.  IN ADDITION TO
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA...EASTERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE MORNING...AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO
PUSH A MID-LAKE CLOUD BAND INLAND.  WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
MORE SUN EAST VERSUS WEST.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

PATTERN OVER CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO CONSIST OF STRONG UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROF/ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN CHANCES
CONTINUE...ALBEIT LOWER POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS COOLER AIR ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND A SECONDARY
WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF MOVE THRU. TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL THRU THU
AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

PCPN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT MON AS WAA PATTERN SPREADS
EAST OVER THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY LAYER IN MID
LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT MON. HAVE SLOWED PCPN A BIT EARLY
EVENING...THOUGH LEFT REST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST STAND...STAYING
DRY OVER THE EAST. WIDESPREAD PCPN EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE EVENING
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH STATE. DEEPER MOISTURE STRIPPED OUT
LATER TUE NIGHT/WED LEADING TO LOWER POPS OR LIGHT PCPN.

STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...THUS
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST. HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP ON
LAKE/BAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED GIVEN COLD AIR MASS MOVING IN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL
LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREAFTER...DECREASING CLOUDS
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SET UP A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT.  GOOD FLYING WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE INCREASING AND GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ038-039-
048>050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RIVERTON WY

 422 PM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS LOOMING TO OUR WEST OVER IDAHO...NEVADA AND
UTAH. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY IN OUR MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF JOHNSON COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

CURRENTLY WE ARE UNDER THE SOUTHWEST UPPER DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR LIGHTNING ALONG THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF WYOMING FROM WEAK
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THIS MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REPLACED THE
MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE WEST. A CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON PIH RADAR IN EASTERN
IDAHO JUST WEST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE RUC INDICATING
INCREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE GFS...NAM AND THE ECMWF ALL
AGREE ON KEEPING THE MAIN JET ENERGY WELL TO THE SOUTH TRACKING
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH THE VORT ENERGY
STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THE
SURFACE FLOW IS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ATTM...EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...BUT AT MAINLY LIGHT SPEEDS. ONCE THE MAIN LOW OVER
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA STARTS TO BOMB...THE NORTH WINDS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WILL STRENGTHEN AND THUS INCREASE UPSLOPE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL. THE GFS INDICATES 3 SEPARATE SUBTLE CIRCULATIONS AT
700MB THAT WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF WYOMING
TONIGHT...NOT THE MOST ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED Q VECTOR
FORCING AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH THE 700MB CIRCULATIONS
TRACKING ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT WITH THE MAIN ENERGY WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...THE THINKING WAS ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES EAST OF THE DIVIDE...NAMELY THE WIND
RIVER...ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS CASPER
MOUNTAIN. THE BIG HORNS AND CASPER MTN WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND
ROUGHLY SIX HOURS COMPARED TO THE WINDS AND THE ABSAROKAS. DECIDED
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS...THE HIGH END SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE TIME OF YEAR AND
ALL THE HUNTERS THAT WILL BE NEGOTIATING THE WINTER CONDITIONS.
THE BULK OF THE COLDEST 700MB AIR WILL COME CLOSEST TO JOHNSON
COUNTY WHERE ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR THAT ZONE FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR BYG AND SHR BUT NONE FOR THE OTHER MOS GUIDANCE
FORECAST POINTS WHERE 700MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BY THE NAM TO BE
-9.5C IN NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY 00Z TUESDAY. NOT ONLY IS
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JOHNSON
COUNTY BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THERE AS WELL ON MONDAY ONCE THE STORM BOMBS
TO THE EAST. THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JOHNSON COUNTY AND THE GREEN MTNS...FOR
THAT MATTER...NEED A HILITE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTER SOME LINGERING FLURRIES...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER WYOMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD CLEAR OUT FIRST...RESULTING IN A
VERY CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REMAIN OVER
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A CLEARING
SKY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL SEE A SUNNY SKY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

NORTHWEST FLOW THEN SETS UP ALOFT OVER WYOMING. IT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER MODELS. FURTHER IN
THE EXTENDED WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVES
IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...
WEST CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER NORTHERLY
STREAM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THESE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...BUT PREFER THE DRIER GFS FOR NOW. IF ANY AREA
WERE TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN...IT WOULD BE THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BECOMING MORE PREVALENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS
WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. THE MOST IMPACTED TAF SITE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE KJAC TERMINAL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE KJAC TERMINAL.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS
MUCH OF THE TIME.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

MOUNTAIN SNOW/VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE
THIS EVENING. TAF SITES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT...AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD WITH AN INCREASING PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST
AREAS BY 12Z MONDAY EXCEPT KCPR WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL 15Z.
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE WILL BE OBSCURED FOR MUCH OF FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE OTHER MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
ICING FORECASTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW
PRESSURE...AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SNOW.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME OF
THE WEST CENTRAL WYOMING MOUNTAIN RANGES. THIS SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
BY MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE COOL
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE WIND OR MIXING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
MONDAY NIGHT WYZ022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
MONDAY WYZ002-015.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
MONDAY NIGHT WYZ008-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON