Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/11/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 831 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

.UPDATE...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
EARLIER THIS EVENING AND...AT ONE POINT...STRETCHED FROM LOGAN
COUNTY DOWN TO SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE LINE OF STORMS HAS PUSHED INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS...BRINGING AN END TO THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. AN AREA OF POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE WEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT.

THAT COMPRISES THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHTS WEATHER. STILL TO COME
WILL BE SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
AN EPISODE OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO SHEARS OUT AND EJECTS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. KGJX RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME. AS THE LOW EJECTS...FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE COOLEST
AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PRODUCE UP
TO A HALF FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. THE WIND
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES WILL RESULT FROM THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WITH A REGION OF
NORTHERLY WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS CREATING A MEAN STATE CRITICAL
LAYER THAT AMPLIFIES A MOUNTAIN WAVE OVER THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY
PEAK BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM. THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS TO COVER
THESE ASPECTS OF THE STORM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE REMOVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENINGS TIME PERIOD. OTHER ELEMENTS ARE
UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT DENVER AREA AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN DRIVEN BY
OUTLOW FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OFF THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL HELP KEEP CEILINGS
IN THE VFR RANGE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ADAMS
AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE METRO AREA AS THEY
DRIFT NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH WIND EVENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013/

SHORT TERM...UPPER TROF APPROACHING COLORADO FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND APPEARS THERE ARE TWO MAIN CIRCULATION CENTERS WITH
THE ENTIRE TROF. THE STRONGER ONE IS NOW APPROACHING SW COLORADO
WITH A WEAKER CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN UTAH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED WITH UNFAVORABLE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
MTN TOP FLOW. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TNT AS MTN TOP FLOW
SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. SNOW PRODUCTION SHOULD INCREASE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. HENCE...CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD.

ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SHIFTING EAST OF
DENVER WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS. STILL A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THE PLAINS
WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. COULD EASILY
SEE HIGH WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STRONG 50KT MID LEVEL FLOW. HIGHEST
CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE OVER THE FAR PLAINS WITH CONVERGENCE AND
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

MAIN CONCERN FOR LATER TNT AND FRIDAY AM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THIS LOOKS LIKE
A GOOD CASE FOR HIGH WINDS WITH EJECTING LOW FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
BOTH NAM AND RAP SHOWING CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASING 50-60KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG MTN TOP STABILITY JUST
BELOW 700MB. ALSO MEAN STATE CRITICAL LAYER DEVELOPS AS WELL. A
FEW FACTORS AGAINST THE WINDS...AS DEEP UPSTREAM MOISTURE MAY
LIMIT THE MTN TOP STABILITY AND BEST SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF IS
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HIGH WIND AREA. ON THE OTHER
SIDE...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES TO AROUND 15MB FROM GJT TO DEN.
BOTTOM LINE...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO WARNINGS FOR THE TARGETED
AREA WITH ENOUGH FACTORS IN FAVOR OF HIGH WINDS.

LONG TERM...THE SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING DRIER
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE FORMING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE TO
CREATE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO BRING IN WARMER AIR SUNDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE FROM THE
INCOMING GREAT BASIN SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE STATE
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE PLAINS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THE RAIN COULD
CHANGE INTO SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY IS WHEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODEL KEEPS A LOW BACK IN THE GREAT BASIN TO
ANCHOR THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE STATE LONGER WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO MOVE THE TROUGH SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST WHILE
THESE DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED.

AVIATION...SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED EAST OF DENVER AS ALL
TERMINALS HAVE NOW SHIFTED NORTHWEST. GIVEN THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND THROUGH EARLY EVENING WINDS WILL END UP BEING QUITE
VARIABLE AND WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC DIRECTIONS BUT
MOST LIKELY SOME SORT OF WESTERLY COMPONENT. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AT BJC LATER TNT WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50KT. THE WEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT DEN AND APA
WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE.

HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS WITH MAINLY FAST MOVING STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
COZ035-036-038-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...ET




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 1024 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS SYSTEM MAY AFFECT PARTS OF CT/RI/SOUTHEAST MASS THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL REINFORCE
THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR...AND KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO LOWER RAINFALL
CHANCES. SOME CONCERN FOR SPOTTY DRIZZLE OUT OF A MARINE STRATUS
DECK ALONG THE EAST COAST...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SIGN OF IT ON
AREA RADARS OR OBSERVATIONS.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE. DID TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ENHANCEMENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SUBSEQUENT
OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS
RESULTING IN A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY PRESENTLY...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

NEAR-TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE EXHIBITS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR INVOKING A STRONGER EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT OF AIR WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS
/ALREADY SEEING THIS WITHIN THE RADAR DERIVED WIND PROFILER/.

PER THE LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE...LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WHILE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDS FILTER NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT TO THE ISENTROPIC
FLOW REGIME AROUND THE MID- ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW AND WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. CONSEQUENTIALLY...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-
40S.

ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND AMIDST
THE VERY DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLUMN PER 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF
CHATHAM. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS IT TO BE INCREDIBLY
DRY FROM H925-H7. HAVE TUCKED LIKELY POPS ALONG THE SOUTH-SHORE.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE WELL SOUTH AND WEST
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS /COLLOCATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TOWARDS THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER/.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
COASTAL LOW OFF DELMARVA...WITH EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE. A MARINE FLOW WOULD SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SHOWERS. THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH THE
HIGH WOULD KEEP CLOUDS HIGHER AND WORK AGAINST ANY PRECIPITATION.
WE ARE MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

RIDGE EDGES SOUTH A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE
SHOWERS OFFSHORE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRYING IN THE LOWER
LAYERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW SUGGESTS LINGERING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASS AND
RI/CT. WE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THESE AREAS...WITH
50-70 PERCENT SKY COVER IN SRN NH AND CENTRAL/WESTERN MASS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* COOL CLAMMY POTENTIALLY CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
* DRY A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH INFLUENCE HIGH PRESSURE
* A RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND

*/OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

LESSER AMPLIFICATION OF THE NEGATIVE NAO/AO STATE IS APPARENT PER
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. INVESTIGATING...REX-BLOCK OVER
WESTERN EUROPE SUPPORTS ENHANCEMENT UPSTREAM OF A STRONG POLAR
VORTEX SOUTH OF GREENLAND. BUT EVOLUTION OF THE REX-BLOCK WEST
MESHING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX NO LONGER SUPPORTED BY
ENSEMBLE MEANS. RATHER A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME IS SUGGESTED
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING
POSITIVE PNA TREND AMPLIFIES RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND
COUPLING WITH THE SOUTH GREENLAND POLAR VORTEX...ENHANCED
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC PREVAILS.

THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SUCH FEATURES
DISCUSSED ABOVE...ALONG WITH DISTINCT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES THROUGH
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE IMPACTS UPSTREAM
OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE CONUS. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BREAK
DOWN BY MIDWEEK WITH THE 10.12Z GFS THE FAST OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE
10.0Z ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE AND 10.12Z CANADIAN WHICH ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AND EXHIBIT A BETTER POSITIVE PNA TREND OVER THE WESTERN
PACIFIC. WOULD EXPECT A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN AND
THUS THE 10.12Z GFS IS NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EXPECTING A QUIET EARLY WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING MORE ACTIVE INTO THE LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING IS MAINTAINED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

*/DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

*/WEEKEND...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA/NORTHEASTERN CONUS
SHUNTS THE COASTAL LOW SOUTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC. YET BACK-
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND H9 AND ACCOMPANYING BRISK EASTERLY FLOW /WITH SURFACE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH/ PUSHES BROKEN-OVERCAST COASTAL STRATUS ONSHORE
RESULTING IN COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES SATURDAY. CLEARING PROCEEDS SUNDAY.

*/MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

MAINTENANCE OF WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS LENDS TO CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS
AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WASHES
OUT NEVER REACHING NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
REMAINING IN PLACE. NO WEATHER ANTICIPATED...JUST SCATTERED-BROKEN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS.

*/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

COASTAL LOW LIFTS OUT NORTH AND EAST AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AROUND THURSDAY. OUTER EFFECTS
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT FEEL THE MAINTENANCE OF WEAK
RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE ACCOMPANYING LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES
AS IT ENTERS NEW ENGLAND. WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF MOISTURE MAKING IT OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST AS SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION IS WELL
IN PLACE EAST OF THE LEE SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS IN MARINE STRATUS SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM KBOS...KSFZ...KUUU. VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-
SHORE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. ALSO FOR THOSE TERMINALS
SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR
-RA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF VISIBILITY IMPACTS.

IFR/LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES WITHIN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW-END
VFR / MVFR CIGS SHUNTING SOUTH AND WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ALONG THE SOUTH-SHORE CONTINUING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

*/SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

BKN-OVC MVFR / LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH BRISK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
UP TO 25 KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS.

*/MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE EASTERLY WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS ARE BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...AND THE RESULT IS AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE SHOULD MAINTAIN A BREEZY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE STEADY FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WATERS WITH HEIGHTS OF 5-8 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST WATERS. THE SCA MAY EVENTUALLY BE
EXPANDED INTO SOME OR ALL OF THE REMAINING SOUTHERN WATERS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

*/SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

BRISK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED WAVE ACTION EXCEEDING 5 FEET OVER A MAJORITY OF
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY.

*/MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

THOUGH WINDS BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE...REMNANT SWELL FROM THE LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED WAVE
ACTION AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS FOR
SEAS LIKELY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 722 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS SYSTEM MAY AFFECT PARTS OF CT/RI/SOUTHEAST MASS THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ENHANCMENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SUBSEQUENT OF
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS RESULTING
IN A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY PRESENTLY...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

NEAR-TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE EXHIBITS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR INVOKING A STRONGER EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT OF AIR WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS
/ALREADY SEEING THIS WITHIN THE RADAR DERIVED WIND PROFILER/.

PER THE LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE...LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WHILE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDS FILTER NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT TO THE ISENTROPIC
FLOW REGIME AROUND THE MID- ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW AND WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. CONSEQUENTIALLY...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-
40S.

ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND AMIDST
THE VERY DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COLUMN PER 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF
CHATHAM. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS IT TO BE INCREDIBLY
DRY FROM H925-H7. HAVE TUCKED LIKELY POPS ALONG THE SOUTH-SHORE.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE WELL SOUTH AND WEST
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS /COLLOCATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TOWARDS THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER/.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANYTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
COASTAL LOW OFF DELMARVA...WITH EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE. A MARINE FLOW WOULD SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SHOWERS. THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH THE
HIGH WOULD KEEP CLOUDS HIGHER AND WORK AGAINST ANY PRECIPITATION.
WE ARE MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

RIDGE EDGES SOUTH A LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE
SHOWERS OFFSHORE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRYING IN THE LOWER
LAYERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW SUGGESTS LINGERING CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASS AND
RI/CT. WE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THESE AREAS...WITH
50-70 PERCENT SKY COVER IN SRN NH AND CENTRAL/WESTERN MASS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* COOL CLAMMY POTENTIALLY CLOUDY WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
* DRY A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH INFLUENCE HIGH PRESSURE
* A RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND

*/OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

LESSER AMPLIFICATION OF THE NEGATIVE NAO/AO STATE IS APPARENT PER
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. INVESTIGATING...REX-BLOCK OVER
WESTERN EUROPE SUPPORTS ENHANCEMENT UPSTREAM OF A STRONG POLAR
VORTEX SOUTH OF GREENLAND. BUT EVOLUTION OF THE REX-BLOCK WEST
MESHING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX NO LONGER SUPPORTED BY
ENSEMBLE MEANS. RATHER A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME IS SUGGESTED
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING
POSITIVE PNA TREND AMPLIFIES RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
AND COUPLING WITH THE SOUTH GREENLAND POLAR VORTEX...ENHANCED
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC PREVAILS.

THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SUCH FEATURES
DISCUSSED ABOVE...ALONG WITH DISTINCT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES THROUGH
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE IMPACTS UPSTREAM
OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE CONUS. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BREAK
DOWN BY MIDWEEK WITH THE 10.12Z GFS THE FAST OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE
10.0Z ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE AND 10.12Z CANADIAN WHICH ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AND EXHIBIT A BETTER POSITIVE PNA TREND OVER THE WESTERN
PACIFIC. WOULD EXPECT A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN AND
THUS THE 10.12Z GFS IS NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EXPECTING A QUIET EARLY WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING MORE ACTIVE INTO THE LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING IS MAINTAINED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

*/DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

*/WEEKEND...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA/NORTHEASTERN CONUS
SHUNTS THE COASTAL LOW SOUTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC. YET BACK-
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND H9 AND ACCOMPANYING BRISK EASTERLY FLOW /WITH SURFACE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH/ PUSHES BROKEN-OVERCAST COASTAL STRATUS ONSHORE
RESULTING IN COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES SATURDAY. CLEARING PROCEEDS SUNDAY.

*/MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

MAINTENANCE OF WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS LENDS TO CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS
AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WASHES
OUT NEVER REACHING NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
REMAINING IN PLACE. NO WEATHER ANTICIPATED...JUST SCATTERED-BROKEN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS.

*/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

COASTAL LOW LIFTS OUT NORTH AND EAST AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AROUND THURSDAY. OUTER EFFECTS
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT FEEL THE MAINTENANCE OF WEAK
RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE ACCOMPANYING LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES
AS IT ENTERS NEW ENGLAND. WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF MOISTURE MAKING IT OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST AS SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION IS WELL
IN PLACE EAST OF THE LEE SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW-END VFR / MVFR CIGS SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.
OTHERWISE VFR. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTH-SHORE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. ALSO FOR THOSE
TERMINALS SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE THERE IS THE CHANCE
FOR -RA...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY
IMPACTS.

IFR/LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES WITHIN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW-END
VFR / MVFR CIGS SHUNTING SOUTH AND WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ALONG THE SOUTH-SHORE CONTINUING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

*/SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

BKN-OVC MVFR / LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH BRISK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
UP TO 25 KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS.

*/MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE EASTERLY WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OUT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS ARE BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...AND THE RESULT IS AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE SHOULD MAINTAIN A BREEZY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE STEADY FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WATERS WITH HEIGHTS OF 5-8 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST WATERS. THE SCA MAY EVENTUALLY BE
EXPANDED INTO SOME OR ALL OF THE REMAINING SOUTHERN WATERS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

*/SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

BRISK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED WAVE ACTION EXCEEDING 5 FEET OVER A MAJORITY OF
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY.

*/MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

THOUGH WINDS BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE...
REMNANT SWELL FROM THE LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED WAVE ACTION AT OR
ABOVE 5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS FOR SEAS LIKELY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1001 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO ADJUST
OVERNIGHT MINS DOWN JUST A BIT WITH A COUPLE OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER
SPOTS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE 50S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME PATCHY
FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE CHICAGO
URBAN HEAT ISLAND. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW EXTENSIVE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE IN 4000-5000 FT STRATUS BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH
HAD BEEN STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS HAS WEAKENED...WITH PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND WESTERN MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW LIFTING INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A BIT...AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE LOWER 50S...AND WITH
OTHERWISE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS) HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS JUST A BIT ESPECIALLY IN
A FEW OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

RAP/WRF/GFS TIME/HEIGHT DEPICTIONS AND SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP IN THE 4000-5000 FT LAYER LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS OF THE 295-300 K SURFACES INDICATE
NEUTRAL OR A SLIGHT DOWNGLIDE AT LEAST JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER...WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH AT 90-100 MB.
RAN SOME BACKWARDS HYSPLIT TRAJECTORY FORECASTS FOR THESE LEVELS
WHICH INDICATE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IL SOURCE REGION FOR PARCELS OVER
THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE THERE WAS SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT. GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A
LITTLE LOWER CLOUD COVER DOWNSTATE AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
EXPANSION TO THE NORTH...THOUGH AM A BIT SUSPECT OF THE SOLID
BKN/OVC INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS LEADS TO QUESTIONS
ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE TOO...AS MORE CLOUD COVER WOULD
YIELD LESS FOG. NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON FOG CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WI...
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF AN ISSUE IN THE WFO LOT CWA. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AWAY FROM CHICAGO AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL
MONITOR FURTHER FOR SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AERIAL DEVELOPMENT.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF PRECIP CHANCES WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT MOISTURE IN 900-800 MB
LAYER...DENOTED BY BETTER CU COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IL...WILL GRADUALLY STREAM NORTHWARD AND LIKELY RESULT
IN A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE BEEN SPURRED BY DEEP UPPER LOW
NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST TODAY. TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTH/NORTHEAST CAUSING MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR REGION TO AMPLIFY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN CWA WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND H9 TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT GOING
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...DESPITE 850 MB LEVEL
COOLING SLIGHTLY. MILDER START TO THE DAY WILL LIKELY HELP AS WELL.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE CLOUD COVER AS GUIDANCE STILL CONSISTENT IN
FAIRLY MOIST 900-800 MB LAYER...BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS TO MAINLY
TRANSITION TO SCT/BKN CU WHICH WILL DISSIPATE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO PRECLUDE LOWERING HIGHS.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ALL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH APPROACH OF
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST WILL
RESULT IN LOWS 55-60...EXCEPT MID 60S DOWNTOWN. DID NOT GO AS QUICK
IN GRIDS AS 12Z NAM RUN...BUT INSTEAD A BLEND WITH THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER GFS. FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED TO THE
NORTH...THROWING INTO DOUBT SHRA COVERAGE...BUT DECENT NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW FOR A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. HAVE
ADDED IN LOW END CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS NW HALF OF CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND THEN MAINTAINED HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING DAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WITH QUICKER TIMING...AS FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO
CLEAR CWA BY EARLY EVENING. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN...INSTABILITY IS ONLY MEAGER AT BEST...SO WILL LIMIT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO AFTERNOON HRS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO LOWER 70S
NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF OVERCAST...WHICH MAY
STILL BE TOO GENEROUS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS...WITH DEW POINTS
PLUNGING INTO UPPER 30S FROM THE WEST...WILL RUSH IN BEHIND FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM NORTHWEST. THEREFORE SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CLEAR. H8 TEMPS COOL TO MID SINGLE DIGITS BY
DAYBREAK...SO FAVORED COOL SPOTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY
DROP TO 40 OR EVEN UPPER 30S. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULDNT BE
MAJOR HINDRANCE TO RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY FOR THE EVENTS IN CHICAGO...JUST COOLER THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL...ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND LOWER 60S
ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

COOL AND QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER FAIRLY
DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACHING. TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW SHOWN ON 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEST OF CWA WILL PUT
US IN WARM SECTOR...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE...IN 60S...MAY BE TOO COOL IF CLOUD
COVER IS NOT TOO PROHIBITIVE...AS THERMAL PROFILES FROM GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN LOW TEENS AT 850MB AND MID TEENS AT 925 MB. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN
SET-UP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME THUNDER
IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND THEN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THAT
IS...ASSUMING LOW TRACKS AS PROGGED...WHICH IS NONETHELESS LIKELY TO
CHANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL SPAWN SURFACE LOW NOT
REACHING WEST COAST AND RAOB NETWORK UNTIL SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOW...SO FURTHER CHANGES ARE TO BE EXPECTED.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...AS LATEST ECMWF LIFTS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM INTO AREA FROM SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND GFS INDICATES POTENTIAL PRECIP WOULD
COME FROM SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM. WHICHEVER SCENARIO COMES CLOSER TO PASS...IT WILL FINALLY BE
DECIDELY MORE FALL LIKE...WITH H8 TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 0C RESULTING IN HIGHS IN 50S TO PERHAPS LOW 60S WEDS AND
THURS.

RC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* POSSIBILITY OF SOME CIGS AROUND 3,000 FT AGL DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE COLORADO
ROCKIES...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS LOW...IT APPEARS THE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY
THEN BACK MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON NEAR THE
LAKE AS A LAKE BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITH DEW POINTS NEARING 50 DEGREES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS COULD AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FOG LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KDPA AND KRFD. THEREFORE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE A THREAT FOR SOME LOW END VFR CIGS AROUND 3-4,000 FT AGL
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. IF THESE CIGS DO INDEED DEVELOP...IT COULD
LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* LOW-MEDIUM FOR THE CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

* HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. COLD FRONT/WIND
  SHIFT TO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
106 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUES NORTH
TO HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE LAKE
THIS WEEKEND AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SYSTEM IS WEAK AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY IN RESULTING
IN QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER STRONG
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY AND TRACK...BUT
GROWING CONSENSUS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING WAVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 923 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO ADJUST
OVERNIGHT MINS DOWN JUST A BIT WITH A COUPLE OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER
SPOTS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE 50S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME PATCHY
FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE CHICAGO
URBAN HEAT ISLAND. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW EXTENSIVE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE IN 4000-5000 FT STRATUS BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH
HAD BEEN STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS HAS WEAKENED...WITH PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND WESTERN MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW LIFTING INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A BIT...AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE LOWER 50S...AND WITH
OTHERWISE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS) HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS JUST A BIT ESPECIALLY IN
A FEW OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

RAP/WRF/GFS TIME/HEIGHT DEPICTIONS AND SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP IN THE 4000-5000 FT LAYER LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS OF THE 295-300 K SURFACES INDICATE
NEUTRAL OR A SLIGHT DOWNGLIDE AT LEAST JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER...WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH AT 90-100 MB.
RAN SOME BACKWARDS HYSPLIT TRAJECTORY FORECASTS FOR THESE LEVELS
WHICH INDICATE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IL SOURCE REGION FOR PARCELS OVER
THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE THERE WAS SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT. GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A
LITTLE LOWER CLOUD COVER DOWNSTATE AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
EXPANSION TO THE NORTH...THOUGH AM A BIT SUSPECT OF THE SOLID
BKN/OVC INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS LEADS TO QUESTIONS
ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE TOO...AS MORE CLOUD COVER WOULD
YIELD LESS FOG. NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON FOG CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WI...
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF AN ISSUE IN THE WFO LOT CWA. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AWAY FROM CHICAGO AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL
MONITOR FURTHER FOR SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AERIAL DEVELOPMENT.

RATZER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF PRECIP CHANCES WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT MOISTURE IN 900-800 MB
LAYER...DENOTED BY BETTER CU COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IL...WILL GRADUALLY STREAM NORTHWARD AND LIKELY RESULT
IN A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE BEEN SPURRED BY DEEP UPPER LOW
NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST TODAY. TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTH/NORTHEAST CAUSING MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR REGION TO AMPLIFY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN CWA WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND H9 TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT GOING
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...DESPITE 850 MB LEVEL
COOLING SLIGHTLY. MILDER START TO THE DAY WILL LIKELY HELP AS WELL.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE CLOUD COVER AS GUIDANCE STILL CONSISTENT IN
FAIRLY MOIST 900-800 MB LAYER...BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS TO MAINLY
TRANSITION TO SCT/BKN CU WHICH WILL DISSIPATE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO PRECLUDE LOWERING HIGHS.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ALL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH APPROACH OF
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST WILL
RESULT IN LOWS 55-60...EXCEPT MID 60S DOWNTOWN. DID NOT GO AS QUICK
IN GRIDS AS 12Z NAM RUN...BUT INSTEAD A BLEND WITH THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER GFS. FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED TO THE
NORTH...THROWING INTO DOUBT SHRA COVERAGE...BUT DECENT NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW FOR A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. HAVE
ADDED IN LOW END CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS NW HALF OF CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND THEN MAINTAINED HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING DAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WITH QUICKER TIMING...AS FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO
CLEAR CWA BY EARLY EVENING. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN...INSTABILITY IS ONLY MEAGER AT BEST...SO WILL LIMIT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO AFTERNOON HRS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO LOWER 70S
NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF OVERCAST...WHICH MAY
STILL BE TOO GENEROUS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS...WITH DEW POINTS
PLUNGING INTO UPPER 30S FROM THE WEST...WILL RUSH IN BEHIND FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM NORTHWEST. THEREFORE SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CLEAR. H8 TEMPS COOL TO MID SINGLE DIGITS BY
DAYBREAK...SO FAVORED COOL SPOTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY
DROP TO 40 OR EVEN UPPER 30S. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULDNT BE
MAJOR HINDRANCE TO RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY FOR THE EVENTS IN CHICAGO...JUST COOLER THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL...ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND LOWER 60S
ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

COOL AND QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER FAIRLY
DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACHING. TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW SHOWN ON 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEST OF CWA WILL PUT
US IN WARM SECTOR...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE...IN 60S...MAY BE TOO COOL IF CLOUD
COVER IS NOT TOO PROHIBITIVE...AS THERMAL PROFILES FROM GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN LOW TEENS AT 850MB AND MID TEENS AT 925 MB. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN
SET-UP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME THUNDER
IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND THEN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THAT
IS...ASSUMING LOW TRACKS AS PROGGED...WHICH IS NONETHELESS LIKELY TO
CHANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL SPAWN SURFACE LOW NOT
REACHING WEST COAST AND RAOB NETWORK UNTIL SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOW...SO FURTHER CHANGES ARE TO BE EXPECTED.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...AS LATEST ECMWF LIFTS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM INTO AREA FROM SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND GFS INDICATES POTENTIAL PRECIP WOULD
COME FROM SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM. WHICHEVER SCENARIO COMES CLOSER TO PASS...IT WILL FINALLY BE
DECIDELY MORE FALL LIKE...WITH H8 TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 0C RESULTING IN HIGHS IN 50S TO PERHAPS LOW 60S WEDS AND
THURS.

RC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* POSSIBILITY OF SOME CIGS AROUND 3,000 FT AGL DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE COLORADO
ROCKIES...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS LOW...IT APPEARS THE GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY
THEN BACK MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON NEAR THE
LAKE AS A LAKE BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITH DEW POINTS NEARING 50 DEGREES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS COULD AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FOG LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KDPA AND KRFD. THEREFORE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE A THREAT FOR SOME LOW END VFR CIGS AROUND 3-4,000 FT AGL
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. IF THESE CIGS DO INDEED DEVELOP...IT COULD
LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* LOW-MEDIUM FOR THE CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

* HIGH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. COLD FRONT/WIND
  SHIFT TO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
106 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUES NORTH
TO HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE LAKE
THIS WEEKEND AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SYSTEM IS WEAK AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY IN RESULTING
IN QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER STRONG
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY AND TRACK...BUT
GROWING CONSENSUS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING WAVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1239 PM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
1106 AM CDT

MORNING UPDATE...

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK...WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PROVIDING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. 12Z RAOB SHOWED 925 MB TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT GOING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THIS IS DESPITE H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUES SINCE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING ONLY UP TO ABOUT 925 MB. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO LOWER IL LAKEFRONT HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES AS WINDS
HAVE ALREADY TURNED EASTERLY ALONG COOK COUNTY SHORE. WITH
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO ONLY AT 61 DEGREES AS OF THIS WRITING...HIGHS
ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE MID 60S.

RC

//PREV DISCUSSION...
310 AM CDT

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN COMPONENT GUIDING THE WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL LIKELY AID IN ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL
BE NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY.

CLOUDLESS SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...WITH IR IMAGERY INDICATING JUST A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS FLOATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISC STRETCHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC WINDS HAVE HELD UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTAINING TEMPS IN THE
UPR 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. CURRENT T/TD SPREADS ARE LARGE ENOUGH
THAT SHALLOW FOG IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO FORM...HOWEVER JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK IF THE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO RADIATE FURTHER THEN A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SHALLOW FOG DEVELOP.

BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
CWFA TODAY. TEMPS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 12-14 DEG C AT
850MB. THIS COUPLED WITH MINIMAL SPREAD AMONGST TEMP PLUMES FOR A
HANDFUL OF POINTS SUGGESTS THAT LESS MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY
AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 70S...POSSIBLY MID 70S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LASALLE TO KANKAKEE LINE.

THEN TONIGHT SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
FLOW AT THE SFC. TEMPS WILL AT FIRST RADIATE INTO THE MID/UPR 50S
JUST AFTER SUNSET...THEN SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID/UPR 40S. NEAR DOWNTOWN CHICAGO IN THE MID
50S.

CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANOMALOUS MID-LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY FURTHER AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT EAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN
QUEBEC THUR...THEN UNDERGO SOME STRENGTHENING.

WITH THE WAVE SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING FRI INTO SAT
VERIFIES...THIS WILL LIKELY DEFLECT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHORTWAVE
FURTHER NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP TIMING AS WELL AS COVERAGE. SFC
RIDGING APPEARS TO HOLD ONTO THE REGION THROUGH FRI...AND MID-LVL
HEIGHTS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF RESISTANCE TO THE PROGGED
500MB TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE EAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT
PRESENT HAVE PUSHED PRECIP OFF UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT...WITH PRESENT GUIDANCE INDICATING MUCAPE VALUES
STRUGGLING TO REACH 400J/KG. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM...HAVE OPTED TO TRIM BACK MENTION OF THUNDER FROM
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THUR.
GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME AFTERNOON MIXING...PARCEL
HEAT CAPACITY WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE SCENARIO OF
AFTN TEMPS FRI WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
80 DEG FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

LLVL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND...WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID/UPR 50S. THE ADDED
MOISTURE AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT FROM COOLING MUCH...SO HAVE BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPR 50S. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SAT WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST CWFA WHERE TEMPS
COULD YET AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPR 70S. IF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SLOWS OR HAS LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED...THEN TEMPS SAT WILL WARM
INTO THE MID/UPR 70S ACROSS THE CWFA.

CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP SAT...MEDIUM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SUGGESTING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN.
THE 3 SIGMA RIDGE OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SUN/MON...WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WEAKENING AND BECOMING
SEMI-ZONAL. A LARGE FEATURE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IS
CONSIDERABLE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH COULD CREATE
A BOTTLENECK IN THE PATTERN FOR THE CONUS.

CURRENT OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUN
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY
WEATHER FOR MIDDAY SUN THROUGH MON. THE GFS/EC ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS REMAINING PROGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPING
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE MON/TUE. THE EC HAS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ONLY DEMONSTRATING A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL TUE/WED.

CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

BEACHLER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON THE WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN A BACKING OF WINDS TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AND EAST.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

MODELS MAINTAIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED WESTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE WESTERN PORTION DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN THURSDAY INDIANA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE
LOCAL AREA.

WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND
INLAND SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE
IS ENOUGH TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTAL FOR A WEAK LAKE BREEZE TO BE
SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. THIS IS ALREADY SEEN
OCCURRING ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WITH COASTAL MARINE OBSERVATION
SITES ALL SHOWING A BACKING OCCURRING BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z.

HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS VEERING
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AS DUSK APPROACHES TEMPERATURES IN THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE LAKE
BREEZE WILL DISSIPATE. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY
WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS BACKING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES RISE.

VERY DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE FROM SURFACE TO UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE REGION CERTAINLY PRECLUDES CLOUDS OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE...AND LITTLE IF ANY AT ALL.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR.
* MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...

226 AM...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING...A LARGE WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. AS THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH MOVES EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AND
REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKES REGION INTO
FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
THIS AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1209 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 950 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2013

Illinois remaining on the periphery of the high pressure that was
centered in New England this morning. Latest satellite imagery
showing some stratocumulus spreading northward through southern
Illinois. Latest RAP model humidity plot for 925-850 mb shows some
of this creeping up to around I-64 this afternoon, but mainly sunny
skies will prevail over the CWA.

Have sent some updated grids to refresh the hourly temperature and
dew point trends, but no changes needed to the zones at this time.

Geelhart


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2013

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Little in the
way of cloud cover on tap through about 09Z. After that, an
increase in clouds around 4000 feet will occur from south to north
as moisture advects northward. Cu-rule and soundings favor the
most cloud cover in eastern Illinois with some broken ceilings.

Would not be too surprised to see some very shallow fog in some
spots early Thursday morning, similar to the past couple mornings,
but confidence in extended visibility restrictions is not high
enough to warrant inclusion in the TAFs at this point.

Geelhart

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 238 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2013

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday

Sprawling high pressure extending from New England to the Southern
Plains will dominate the weather across central Illinois over the
next couple of days. With ridge axis overhead today, light E/SE
winds and slightly lower mixing heights will result in high temps
a degree or two cooler than yesterday...with readings generally
topping out in the lower to middle 70s. Once the ridge shifts a
bit further east and surface winds begin to veer to a more
southerly direction, temperatures will slowly increase through the
end of the week. High temps on Thursday will be in the middle to
upper 70s, while readings on Friday will likely top the 80-degree
mark. After sunny skies today, moisture at around 850mb associated
with an upper low meandering northward into the Mid-Atlantic
states may get drawn into the area on Thursday and Friday.
Forecast soundings and CU-rule both suggest increased diurnal
cloudiness, yielding partly to mostly sunny skies both days.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

Closed upper low over the Desert Southwest will lift northeastward
into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest over the weekend, pulling a
cold front into Illinois. Models still disagree on speed of front,
with GFS sticking to its faster solution and the ECMWF lagging
about 12 hours behind. Exact speed will depend largely upon
strength of Rex blocking that takes place along the East Coast
over the next few days as persistent upper low undercuts ridge.
Given presence of this feature, prefer the slower ECMWF solution
in the extended. As such, will focus highest POPs along/ahead of
the approaching front across the western half of the CWA during
the day Saturday, then further east across the remainder of the
area Saturday night. Will also hold on to low POPs across the E/SE
into Sunday as front slowly departs into Indiana. Limited moisture
ahead of the boundary and best upper dynamics remaining well to
the north support only chance POPs for showers/thunder at this time.

Further out, significant timing differences remain among the
operational models. Once again, the GFS is much faster with the
next approaching system than the ECMWF. Given highly amplified
nature of upper trough digging into the Rockies/Plains late in the
weekend, would tend to favor the slower ECMWF here as well. Will
therefore maintain a warm/dry forecast for Monday before
introducing a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday night
into Tuesday. After that, much cooler weather will arrive by the
middle of next weeks with temps dropping below normal into the
upper 50s/lower 60s by Wednesday.

Barnes


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1106 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
1106 AM CDT

MORNING UPDATE...

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK...WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
PROVIDING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. 12Z RAOB SHOWED 925 MB TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT GOING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
THIS IS DESPITE H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUES SINCE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING ONLY UP TO ABOUT 925 MB. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO LOWER IL LAKEFRONT HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES AS WINDS
HAVE ALREADY TURNED EASTERLY ALONG COOK COUNTY SHORE. WITH
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO ONLY AT 61 DEGREES AS OF THIS WRITING...HIGHS
ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE MID 60S.

RC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
310 AM CDT

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN COMPONENT GUIDING THE WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL LIKELY AID IN ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL
BE NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY.

CLOUDLESS SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...WITH IR IMAGERY INDICATING JUST A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS FLOATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISC STRETCHING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC WINDS HAVE HELD UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTAINING TEMPS IN THE
UPR 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. CURRENT T/TD SPREADS ARE LARGE ENOUGH
THAT SHALLOW FOG IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO FORM...HOWEVER JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK IF THE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO RADIATE FURTHER THEN A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SHALLOW FOG DEVELOP.

BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
CWFA TODAY. TEMPS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 12-14 DEG C AT
850MB. THIS COUPLED WITH MINIMAL SPREAD AMONGST TEMP PLUMES FOR A
HANDFUL OF POINTS SUGGESTS THAT LESS MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY
AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 70S...POSSIBLY MID 70S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LASALLE TO KANKAKEE LINE.

THEN TONIGHT SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
FLOW AT THE SFC. TEMPS WILL AT FIRST RADIATE INTO THE MID/UPR 50S
JUST AFTER SUNSET...THEN SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID/UPR 40S. NEAR DOWNTOWN CHICAGO IN THE MID
50S.

CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANOMALOUS MID-LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY FURTHER AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL DRIFT EAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN
QUEBEC THUR...THEN UNDERGO SOME STRENGTHENING.

WITH THE WAVE SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING FRI INTO SAT
VERIFIES...THIS WILL LIKELY DEFLECT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHORTWAVE
FURTHER NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP TIMING AS WELL AS COVERAGE. SFC
RIDGING APPEARS TO HOLD ONTO THE REGION THROUGH FRI...AND MID-LVL
HEIGHTS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF RESISTANCE TO THE PROGGED
500MB TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE EAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT
PRESENT HAVE PUSHED PRECIP OFF UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING.

INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT...WITH PRESENT GUIDANCE INDICATING MUCAPE VALUES
STRUGGLING TO REACH 400J/KG. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM...HAVE OPTED TO TRIM BACK MENTION OF THUNDER FROM
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THUR.
GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOME AFTERNOON MIXING...PARCEL
HEAT CAPACITY WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE SCENARIO OF
AFTN TEMPS FRI WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
80 DEG FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

LLVL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND...WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID/UPR 50S. THE ADDED
MOISTURE AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT FROM COOLING MUCH...SO HAVE BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPR 50S. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SAT WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST CWFA WHERE TEMPS
COULD YET AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPR 70S. IF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
SLOWS OR HAS LESS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED...THEN TEMPS SAT WILL WARM
INTO THE MID/UPR 70S ACROSS THE CWFA.

CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP SAT...MEDIUM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SUGGESTING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN.
THE 3 SIGMA RIDGE OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SUN/MON...WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WEAKENING AND BECOMING
SEMI-ZONAL. A LARGE FEATURE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IS
CONSIDERABLE BLOCKING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH COULD CREATE
A BOTTLENECK IN THE PATTERN FOR THE CONUS.

CURRENT OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUN
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY
WEATHER FOR MIDDAY SUN THROUGH MON. THE GFS/EC ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS REMAINING PROGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPING
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE MON/TUE. THE EC HAS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION...ONLY DEMONSTRATING A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL TUE/WED.

CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

BEACHLER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

LAKE BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPERIMPOSED ON THE SOUTHEAST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW OVER THE AREA TO BACK WINDS
SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED
WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK SOUTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTAL TO SUPERIMPOSE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE ON TOP
OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...RESULTING IN WINDS BACKING SOMEWHAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT KGYY...EAST AT KMDW...AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT KORD. VERY DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE FROM SURFACE TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE REGION CERTAINLY
PRECLUDES ANY CLOUDS OF SIGNIFICANCE...AND LITTLE IF ANY AT ALL.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR.
* MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...

226 AM...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING...A LARGE WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. AS THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH MOVES EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AND
REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKES REGION INTO
FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... LOW
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
THIS AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
950 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 950 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2013

Illinois remaining on the periphery of the high pressure that was
centered in New England this morning. Latest satellite imagery
showing some stratocumulus spreading northward through southern
Illinois. Latest RAP model humidity plot for 925-850 mb shows some
of this creeping up to around I-64 this afternoon, but mainly sunny
skies will prevail over the CWA.

Have sent some updated grids to refresh the hourly temperature and
dew point trends, but no changes needed to the zones at this time.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 602 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2013

VFR conditions will continue next 24hrs at all TAF sites. High
pressure will continue to hold to our east through the period
bringing a mostly clear sky and a light southeast wind. Model
forecast soundings and time height cross sections continue to
indicate moisture in the 3000-4000 foot level to our southeast
will gradually edge north and northwest into our southern TAF
areas late tomorrow night. Current indications suggest most
if not all the clouds should remain south of our area thru
06z Thursday, but then advance northward enough to affect some of
the sites between 09 and 12z. Surface winds will be out of a
southeasterly direction at 10 kts or less.

Auten

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 238 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2013

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday

Sprawling high pressure extending from New England to the Southern
Plains will dominate the weather across central Illinois over the
next couple of days. With ridge axis overhead today, light E/SE
winds and slightly lower mixing heights will result in high temps
a degree or two cooler than yesterday...with readings generally
topping out in the lower to middle 70s. Once the ridge shifts a
bit further east and surface winds begin to veer to a more
southerly direction, temperatures will slowly increase through the
end of the week. High temps on Thursday will be in the middle to
upper 70s, while readings on Friday will likely top the 80-degree
mark. After sunny skies today, moisture at around 850mb associated
with an upper low meandering northward into the Mid-Atlantic
states may get drawn into the area on Thursday and Friday.
Forecast soundings and CU-rule both suggest increased diurnal
cloudiness, yielding partly to mostly sunny skies both days.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

Closed upper low over the Desert Southwest will lift northeastward
into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest over the weekend, pulling a
cold front into Illinois. Models still disagree on speed of front,
with GFS sticking to its faster solution and the ECMWF lagging
about 12 hours behind. Exact speed will depend largely upon
strength of Rex blocking that takes place along the East Coast
over the next few days as persistent upper low undercuts ridge.
Given presence of this feature, prefer the slower ECMWF solution
in the extended. As such, will focus highest POPs along/ahead of
the approaching front across the western half of the CWA during
the day Saturday, then further east across the remainder of the
area Saturday night. Will also hold on to low POPs across the E/SE
into Sunday as front slowly departs into Indiana. Limited moisture
ahead of the boundary and best upper dynamics remaining well to
the north support only chance POPs for showers/thunder at this time.

Further out, significant timing differences remain among the
operational models. Once again, the GFS is much faster with the
next approaching system than the ECMWF. Given highly amplified
nature of upper trough digging into the Rockies/Plains late in the
weekend, would tend to favor the slower ECMWF here as well. Will
therefore maintain a warm/dry forecast for Monday before
introducing a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday night
into Tuesday. After that, much cooler weather will arrive by the
middle of next weeks with temps dropping below normal into the
upper 50s/lower 60s by Wednesday.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 904 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS LINE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT TO
BREEZY. AM EXPECTING THIS LINE TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
AROUND MIDNIGHT NORTHERN YUMA AND POSSIBLE NORTHERN DUNDY COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE ADDITION RAINFALL AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER THAT AREA...BRINGING THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY NORTH OF DENVER OVER
THOSE COUNTIES

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG TROUGH
WITH CLOSED CENTER JUST WEST OF FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. 120-125KT
H3 JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH NOSE OF JET
STREAK BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT HAS LINGERED OVER NW KS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH LATEST OBS TRENDS INDICATING THE FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
NORTH OF KGLD TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z WITH BEST
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT
BEST FORCING OVER OUR CWA WILL BE THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z-03Z.

FORECAST INITIATION MAY BE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CINH AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
LIMITING CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VIRGA
APPARENT ON RADAR...HOWEVER MAIN ACTIVITY LIKELY WONT GET GOING
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON TD WITH LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS LIKELY ORIGINATING OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE TD VALUES
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH CAPE WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER THE CWA. AT THIS POINT RAP SOLUTION OF 500-600
J/KG ML CAPE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE...THOUGH I WOULDNT RULE
OUT EASTERN LOCATIONS GETTING HIGHER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 00Z.
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO BORDER WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FORCING. BETTER
COVERAGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM
UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND 00Z FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INTO
A LINE OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTER BY THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY MOVING
EAST...WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEER
PROFILES IN PLACE. I STILL EXPECT WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH IF WE CAN GET AN ORGANIZED/DISCREET CELL THEN
SEVERE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

REGARDING WINDS...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WEST AND WITH LEE TROUGH STILL DEEPENING I EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH CRITERIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GFS/MAV GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS NEAR WARNING CONDITIONS...WHICH IS
PROBABLY TOO WINDY CONSIDERING EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS. UNLESS WE SEE
A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MIX WINDS FROM ABOUT 700-750MB I THINK WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 03Z THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND UPPER LOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

A SECONDARY VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO FRIDAY
NIGHT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING. LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY AND
RAISED HIGHS AS MUCH AS ISC ALLOWED. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZES
IN THE GREAT BASIN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT OUT
AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AND SUNDAY BUT INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
MAIN ENERGY APPROACHES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH MAY REQUIRE HIGHLIGHTS. MODELS IN
VERY POOR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM PAST MONDAY...THE
ECMWF MUCH SLOWER TO KICK IT OUT COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN AVIATION WX
CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
THE EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN EASTERN
COLORADO STEADILY MOVING EAST AS OF 00Z. THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT
GLD SHORTLY AND MCK LATER THIS EVENING. CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW VFR LEVELS WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO A LACK OF SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NONETHELESS EXPECT SOME RAIN AND WIND. STORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DUE TO FAST STORM
MOTIONS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT MCK...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE TODAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JJM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 544 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

OVERALL ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. PREVIOUS THINKING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED REGARDING MORPHOLOGY OF STORMS TONIGHT. DESPITE THE VERY
GOOD 0-6KM SHEAR...DO NOT BELIEVE HAIL INCH IN DIAMETER WILL
DEVELOP DUE TO VERY NARROW CAPE PROFILES THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE WAS CONTEMPLATING UPGRADING THE WIND ADVISORY DUE TO
SUSTAINED WINDS AT SEVERAL OF THE SITES NEARING 40 MPH. HOWEVER
LOOKING FURTHER WEST THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED BEHIND THE CLOUD
SHIELD. OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR THE WINDS AT GOODLAND HAVE ALSO
DECREASED...SO WILL HOLD OFF UPGRADING THE CURRENT ADVISORY.
SEVERE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS AT LAJUTA
SO AM THINKING THE SAME WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG TROUGH
WITH CLOSED CENTER JUST WEST OF FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. 120-125KT
H3 JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH NOSE OF JET
STREAK BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT HAS LINGERED OVER NW KS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH LATEST OBS TRENDS INDICATING THE FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
NORTH OF KGLD TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z WITH BEST
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT
BEST FORCING OVER OUR CWA WILL BE THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z-03Z.

FORECAST INITIATION MAY BE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CINH AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
LIMITING CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VIRGA
APPARENT ON RADAR...HOWEVER MAIN ACTIVITY LIKELY WONT GET GOING
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON TD WITH LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS LIKELY ORIGINATING OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE TD VALUES
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH CAPE WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER THE CWA. AT THIS POINT RAP SOLUTION OF 500-600
J/KG ML CAPE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE...THOUGH I WOULDNT RULE
OUT EASTERN LOCATIONS GETTING HIGHER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 00Z.
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO BORDER WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FORCING. BETTER
COVERAGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM
UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND 00Z FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INTO
A LINE OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTER BY THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY MOVING
EAST...WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEER
PROFILES IN PLACE. I STILL EXPECT WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH IF WE CAN GET AN ORGANIZED/DISCREET CELL THEN
SEVERE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

REGARDING WINDS...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WEST AND WITH LEE TROUGH STILL DEEPENING I EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH CRITERIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GFS/MAV GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS NEAR WARNING CONDITIONS...WHICH IS
PROBABLY TOO WINDY CONSIDERING EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS. UNLESS WE SEE
A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MIX WINDS FROM ABOUT 700-750MB I THINK WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 03Z THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND UPPER LOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

A SECONDARY VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO FRIDAY
NIGHT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING. LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY AND
RAISED HIGHS AS MUCH AS ISC ALLOWED. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZES
IN THE GREAT BASIN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT OUT
AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AND SUNDAY BUT INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
MAIN ENERGY APPROACHES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH MAY REQUIRE HIGHLIGHTS. MODELS IN
VERY POOR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM PAST MONDAY...THE
ECMWF MUCH SLOWER TO KICK IT OUT COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN AVIATION WX
CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
THE EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN EASTERN
COLORADO STEADILY MOVING EAST AS OF 00Z. THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT
GLD SHORTLY AND MCK LATER THIS EVENING. CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW VFR LEVELS WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO A LACK OF SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NONETHELESS EXPECT SOME RAIN AND WIND. STORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DUE TO FAST STORM
MOTIONS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT MCK...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE TODAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JJM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 522 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

OVERALL ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. PREVIOUS THINKING REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED REGARDING MORPHOLOGY OF STORMS TONIGHT. DESPITE THE VERY
GOOD 0-6KM SHEAR...DO NOT BELIEVE HAIL INCH IN DIAMETER WILL
DEVELOP DUE TO VERY NARROW CAPE PROFILES THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE WAS CONTEMPLATING UPGRADING THE WIND ADVISORY DUE TO
SUSTAINED WINDS AT SEVERAL OF THE SITES NEARING 40 MPH. HOWEVER
LOOKING FURTHER WEST THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED BEHIND THE CLOUD
SHIELD. OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR THE WINDS AT GOODLAND HAVE ALSO
DECREASED...SO WILL HOLD OFF UPGRADING THE CURRENT ADVISORY.
SEVERE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS AT LAJUTA
SO AM THINKING THE SAME WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG TROUGH
WITH CLOSED CENTER JUST WEST OF FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. 120-125KT
H3 JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH NOSE OF JET
STREAK BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT HAS LINGERED OVER NW KS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH LATEST OBS TRENDS INDICATING THE FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
NORTH OF KGLD TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z WITH BEST
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT
BEST FORCING OVER OUR CWA WILL BE THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z-03Z.

FORECAST INITIATION MAY BE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CINH AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
LIMITING CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VIRGA
APPARENT ON RADAR...HOWEVER MAIN ACTIVITY LIKELY WONT GET GOING
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON TD WITH LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS LIKELY ORIGINATING OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE TD VALUES
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH CAPE WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER THE CWA. AT THIS POINT RAP SOLUTION OF 500-600
J/KG ML CAPE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE...THOUGH I WOULDNT RULE
OUT EASTERN LOCATIONS GETTING HIGHER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 00Z.
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO BORDER WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FORCING. BETTER
COVERAGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM
UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND 00Z FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INTO
A LINE OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTER BY THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY MOVING
EAST...WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEER
PROFILES IN PLACE. I STILL EXPECT WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH IF WE CAN GET AN ORGANIZED/DISCREET CELL THEN
SEVERE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

REGARDING WINDS...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WEST AND WITH LEE TROUGH STILL DEEPENING I EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH CRITERIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GFS/MAV GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS NEAR WARNING CONDITIONS...WHICH IS
PROBABLY TOO WINDY CONSIDERING EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS. UNLESS WE SEE
A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MIX WINDS FROM ABOUT 700-750MB I THINK WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 03Z THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND UPPER LOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

A SECONDARY VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO FRIDAY
NIGHT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING. LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY AND
RAISED HIGHS AS MUCH AS ISC ALLOWED. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZES
IN THE GREAT BASIN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT OUT
AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AND SUNDAY BUT INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
MAIN ENERGY APPROACHES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH MAY REQUIRE HIGHLIGHTS. MODELS IN
VERY POOR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM PAST MONDAY...THE
ECMWF MUCH SLOWER TO KICK IT OUT COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS COULDNT BE RULED OUT IF
A HEAVIER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS AT EITHER SITE. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH STRONGEST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. WINDS WILL START FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...AND THEN BACKING TO
THE NW BY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND MAIN SYSTEM. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREAD BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 151 PM MDT WED OCT 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 9 2013

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CONUS WITH CLOSED 548DM H5 CENTER OVER
WESTCENTRAL CALIFORNIA. 135KT H3 JET IS ROUNDING WESTERN EXTENT OF
THIS TROUGH WITH WELL DEFINED PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FORM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NEAR KGLD AND
WEST TOWARDS NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO.

TONIGHT...WITH DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WE SHOULD SEE DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS BUILDING
BACK OVER THE CWA. WHILE H85 TEMPS ARENT TOO DIFFERENT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WINDS MAY REMAIN IN THE 10-12KT RANGE WHICH COULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. I WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A
LITTLE...THOUGH WITH CLEAR SKIES IF WINDS DIMINISH WE COULD END UP
WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

THURSDAY...LEE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN WINDY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING WINDS ALOFT...AND THUS PEAK GUST POTENTIAL.
BASED ON BL/ML WINDS ON THE NAM I WOULD BE CONFIDENT IN A PERIOD
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (GUSTS 45-50MPH). GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
STRONGER MODEL...WITH HIGH END ADVISORY/NEAR WARNING CRITERIA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AROUND 00Z WHEN MIXING MIGHT NOT
BE AS DEEP (CONSIDERING THE EARLIER SUNSET THIS TIME OF YEAR)...SO
I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD A HIGHLIGHT AT THIS
TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH 00Z AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO.
TD VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 40S WILL LIMIT CAPE TO 500 J/KG OR
LESS...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED (LCL/LFC AROUND 10KFT).
AT THE SAME TIME UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEER WILL BE IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF
TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF STRONG
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MDT WED OCT 9 2013

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING TO THE AREA. LACK OF MOISTURE/WEAK
INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. NONETHELESS...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE EAST AS A SQUALL
LINE IN THE EVENING...WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS RACE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 50KTS. DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...UPDRAFTS WILL
STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE GIVEN SBCAPE OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG. AS A
RESULT...HAIL THREAT SEEMS MINIMAL AND TORNADO THREAT EVEN
LESS...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STRONGEST
STORMS GIVEN HIGH BASES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS THROUGH NEARLY
THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY 06Z AS SYSTEM
QUICKLY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND DRY...BUT ANOTHER VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND
THE WEAK LIFT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN GENERATING MORE THAN A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ON SUNDAY BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. THE
MAIN SYSTEM WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) WILL SEE DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT WED OCT 9 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 12KT AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AT KGLD THEN SOUTH AT BOTH
TERMINALS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
STRONGER WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 941 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. DEW POINTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH. HAVE PLACED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS AS IT IS
ALREADY FORMING ACROSS THE SHELTERED INLAND VALLEYS.

LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINING
WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREV DISC...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE
CUTOFF SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THROWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY RETREATING ON FRIDAY. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
UP IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL TRYING TO INTRODUCE SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY BUT HAVE SCALED THESE BACK CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S IN THE NORTH AND MID 30S TO MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT FRIDAY TO START OUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT THIS
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE DAY GOES ON. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS PUSHING ABOVE NORMAL WITH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. EASTERLY FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN ALONG THE
COAST WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER A FAIRLY SHARP
INVERSION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DRY FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
ON THURSDAY MORNING...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER ICELAND. THIS WILL PROVE TO BE A BENEFIT TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA HAS NOWHERE
TO GO... AND WILL STRENGTHEN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY A LOW PUSHING THROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
COMBINATION WITH MOIST AIR FROM THE MARI TIMES WILL DRIVE A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO COASTAL MAINE AND THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
EASTERLY ON-SHORE FLOW COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERIODS OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE ON THE COAST...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
INTERIOR BUT ANY WET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG WAVE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK
DOWN...RESULTING IN THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH BLOCKS... THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN... WITH EACH
MODEL RUN COMING IN PROGRESSIVELY LATER IN THE WEEK. I HAVE LEANED
ON THE WARMER AND DRIER SIDE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK... REFLECTING THE
TREND TOWARDS A LATER BREAK DOWN OF THE TROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY THE
BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN
STALLED TO OUR WEST TO SWEEP THROUGH BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN MORNING VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE VALLEY FOG FOR LEB AND HIE WHERE CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL. EAST OF THE MTNS... ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5FT ON THE OUTER WATERS UNDER
EAST FLOW FOR SATURDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO 2FT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CALM UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
WHEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 925 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT UPR RDG
DOMINATING THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF TROF OVER THE W. AT
THE SFC...HI PRES EXTENDS FM NEW ENGLAND TO LOWER MI...WITH SW FLOW
ARND THIS RDG DOMINATING UPR MI. IN CONCERT WITH VERY DRY LO-MID LVL
AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB/MPX RAOBS...THE CWA IS ENJOYING ANOTHER
VERY PLEASANT OCT DAY DESPITE A STREAM OF SCT-BKN CI/CS IN THE SW
FLOW ALF BTWN THE ERN RDG/WRN TROF. MORE CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER NW MN
AND ONTARIO ALONG A STNRY FNT EXTENDING NE FM LO PRES IN THE NRN
PLAINS...BUT THESE CLDS ARE MAKING NO PROGRESS TOWARD THE CWA AND
THE DOMINATING UPR RDG. THERE WAS SOME FOG OVER INTERIOR E AND
SCENTRAL UPR MI AS WELL AS WI/LOWER MI THIS MRNG...BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING HAS DSPTD THIS FOG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU FRI REMAIN TEMPS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG TNGT AS THE UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS ARE FCST TO
REMAIN DOMINANT.

TNGT...EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL AGAIN TNGT CLOSER TO FLATTER PRES
GRADIENT AND CORE OF DRY AIR WITH PWAT FCST AOB 0.50 INCH EXCEPT
OVER THE FAR W...WHERE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER S WIND FARTHER
FM HI CENTER WL ALSO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPANDED FCST AREA
OF FOG INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AWAY FM THE LK SUP SHORE WITH
UPSLOPE SSE LLVL FLOW OFF LK MI. SUSPECT THE FOG WL BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE IN THIS AREA.

FRI...AS POTENT SHRTWV LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE WRN TROF AND THE PRES
FALLS IN THE PLAINS...THE GRADIENT OVER UPR MI WL SHARPEN THRU THE
DAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY S WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL LIKELY BE AN INCRS IN HI CLDS AT LEAST OVER THE W UNDER THE
MORE DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALF CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV IN THE PLAINS...
MODELS SHOW THE LO/MID LYRS REMAINING DRY. WITH FCST H85 TEMPS TO
12C-14C...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S AGAIN AWAY FM THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK MI IN LLVL SE FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
IN RECENT DAYS...THE HIEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OVER THE W NEAR LK SUP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

FRI NIGHT...MODELS HAVE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING
FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA INTO SRN MANITOBA AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
FM CENTRAL MN IN THE EVENING INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI BY 12Z SAT. WEAK
DYNAMICS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT INITIALLY AS IT WORKS ITS WAY INTO
WRN UPPER MI LATE FRI NIGHT AS BEST Q-VECT CONV WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NW ALONG WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW. GIVEN RELATIVELY POOR
DYNAMICS...LOOK FOR ONLY ISOLD TO SCT SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT
OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE FRI NIGHT. CURRENT 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD
COVER IT.

SAT INTO SAT EVENING...MODELS SHOW TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES...ONE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SECOND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EJECTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI. NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODELS
SHOW RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS 300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND Q-VECT CONV INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES.
GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THESE DETAILS AND FCST PWAT VALUES
NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL WILL PROBABLY NEED BOOST POPS UP TO HIGH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES. WESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND
BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE EAST.

LATE SAT EVENING INTO MONDAY...DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL COOL MAINLY INTO THE 50S
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...AS W-NW FLOW BRINGS 8H TEMPS OF 0-1C
ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AND SREF MODEL INDICATING PWAT VALUES AOB .50
INCH. WILL FCST TEMPS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED GEM VALUES. HIGH TEMPS COULD MODERATE A FEW DEGREES
ON MONDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS EASTERLY.

TUE INTO THU...MODEL CONSISTENCY DIMINISHES OUT TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF AND GEM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
SYSTEM COMING IN FOR TUESDAY. NCEP FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH IS
SIMILAR TO GEM-NH AND SLOWER THAN GFS DUE IN LARGE PART TO DEEPER
TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER SW CONUS AND BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOLLOWING THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLN...BROUGHT
IN HIGHER CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE WRN COUNTIES MON NIGHT WITH
INCREASING DEEP LYR Q-VECT CONV AND THEN SPREAD HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE CWA ON TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED SOME HIGHER CHC POPS FOR WED AS
COMMA-HEAD MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
LINGER OVER INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
SHORTWAVE RDGG AND DRIER CONDITIONS WED NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON
THU BRINGING ANOTHER CHC OF SHRA. MODELS NOT SHOWING VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH DETAILS OR STRENGTH WITH THU SYSTEM...SO EXPECT
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FINE TUNING OF FCST YET TO COME FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE
THIS TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AT KSAW. WITH A LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE WIND OFF OF LAKE MI UNDER
LINGERING MID LEVEL DRY AIR...A FCST OF FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THAT
LOCATION WAS INCLUDED. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT KCMX AND KIWD
SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP
FRI AFTERNOON AT KIWD WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING UNDER A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

LIGHT E-SE WINDS WITH HI PRES DOMINATING WILL VEER TO THE S AND
INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS ON FRI INTO SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN THE HI CENTER TO THE E AND A DEVELOPING
LO IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU SCENTRAL CANADA INTO
HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SAT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND THIS FROPA
SAT NIGHT/SUN AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS HI PRES MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS ON MON INTO TUE WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE AS THE HI RETREATS INTO
CANADA AND A LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE MAY INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS BY TUE WITH FAVORABLE TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 240 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPRAWLING UPR RDG
OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNWIND OF TROF OVER THE W. AT THE
SFC...HI PRES IS SITUATED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAKENING LO PRES
OVER NW ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH CNDN SHRTWV RIDING OVER UPR RDG. THE
CWA IS DOMINATED BY THE LLVL SW FLOW BTWN THESE FEATURES. BUT
BECAUSE THE SFC LO IS WEAKENING WITH PRES RISES OBSVD OVER THE SFC
LO...THE GRADIENT IS WEAKENING STEADILY WITH TIME. SO SW WINDS THIS
AFTN ARE NOT AS GUSTY AS YDAY DESPITE DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
OTRW...THE LOCAL AND UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY LLVL
AIRMASS...SO THERE IS NOTHING MORE THAN PATCHY HI CLDS TO THE SW OF
SOME THICKER CLDS IN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO WELL N OF THE
BORDER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS A BIT OF LO CLD THAT DVLPD DOWNWIND
OF LK MI NEAR MANISTIQUE WHERE THE SW FLOW OFF THE WATER HAS LIFTED
SFC DEWPTS AS HI AS 55 TO 60. WITH A RIBBON OF H85 TEMPS UP TO 15C
STREAMING INTO THE WRN CWA IN THE SW FLOW...TEMPS ARE RUNNING WELL
ABV NORMAL EARLY THIS AFTN WITH READINGS AS HI AS THE LO 70S AT SOME
PLACES AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK MI.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS WITH
DRY...ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES STRETCHING FM THE NE COAST INTO
THE GREAT LKS FCST TO DOMINATE THRU THU.

TNGT...EXPECT LO TEMPS TNGT TO FALL A BIT MORE THAN LAST NGT WITH
DRY AIR LINGERING UNDER WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/SW FLOW AS HIER PRES
SLOWLY EXPANDS TO THE W. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR SCENTRAL AND E...CLOSER TO THE WEAKEST GRADIENT/LOWER PWATS
AOB 0.5 INCH. WITH THESE IMPROVED RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
OVER HIER DEWPTS OBSVD THIS AFTN...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS.

THU...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PLEASANT OCT DAY WITH DRY SW FLOW FCST TO
DOMINATE AND LEAD TO MOSUNNY CONDITIONS. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST NEAR
14C...ALMOST THE SAME AS TDAY...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO
THIS AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

AT 00Z FRI...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA THAT WILL
GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM NE AT 12Z FRI TO FAR
SRN MANITOBA AT 12Z SAT. FRI WILL BE QUIET WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED
DUE TO THE RIDGE BEING OVERHEAD...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
14C...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
AFTER 12Z SAT...MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z/09 GFS KEEPS THE LOW MOVING RAPIDLY NNE
TO HUDSON BAY BY 00Z SUN...WHILE 00Z/09 ECMWF HANGS THE LOW OVER
ONTARIO WHILE WEAKENING...AND FINALLY MOVING TO JAMES BAY AROUND 06Z
MON. THE 00Z/09 GEM SOLUTION IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
TIMING/TRACK. PRECIP OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY
RESULT FROM THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. OF
COURSE...THERE ARE ALSO SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF
FROPA. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT FROM THE WRN U.P. AT 18Z SAT TO THE
ERN CWA AROUND 06Z SUN...WITH THE ECMWF BEING AROUND 6 HOURS SLOWER.
THE GEM MATCHES UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS WITH FROPA TIMING. THERE
MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WRN CWA FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TO
THE W...BUT OTHERWISE MOST PRECIP WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CWA WHERE THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MAY BE BACKED UP BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL
NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY OVER THE W...BUT WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
CENTRAL AND E AND TIMING CLOSER THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND MAYBE JUST BELOW ZERO
BY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT AS THE GFS AND GEM USHER IN DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUN
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE LAGGING LOW WILL KEEP MORE
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. WITH THE CLOUDIER ECMWF SOLUTION...LOW TEMPS SUN
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LESS CLOUDY
SOLUTIONS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A DECENT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL GO WITH A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH AND KEEP CONSENSUS LOW TEMPS FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S.

THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN MON THROUGH NEXT WED AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO POINT TO A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE FROM THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW MUCH INCREASED UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE ERN
HAVE OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER
STRENGTH/FREQUENCY OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. DEFINITELY
LOOKS COLDER WITH TEMPS EVEN FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES. POPS
ARE FAR MORE UNCERTAIN AS SYSTEM STRENGTH/TRACK IS FAR FROM CERTAIN.
TEMPS DO NOT LOOK QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO ADD MIXED PRECIP TO THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED. USED A CONSENSUS
OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

EXPECT GUSTY S-SW WINDS THIS AFTN TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WINDS ON THU
SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY AS TODAY WITH THE WEAKER GRADIENT STILL IN
PLACE. OTRW...DRY HI PRES WL BRING VFR WX TO THE TAF SITES THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE SAW LATE TNGT/EARLY THU...WHERE SOME
FOG COULD FORM. WITH THE LLVL FLOW MORE SSW VS SSE OFF LK MI...OPTED
TO KEEP THIS SITE VFR ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS THRU THU NIGHT TO INCREASE TO UP
TO 25 KTS ON FRI INTO SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI
PRES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT...LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W-NW
BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE N BY MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING HI
PRES CENTER. WINDS WILL BE AS HI AS 20-25 KTS ON SAT NIGHT/SUN
FOLLOWING THIS FROPA...BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH UNDER 20 KTS
BY MON AS THE HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT MOVES NEARBY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 638 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

AT 315PM/2015Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR NEW
ENGLAND AND WAS DOMINATING THE WEATHER OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LIFTING
THROUGH THE ARIZONA/UTAH AREA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHLAND...HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE NE OR ONSHORE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE THE WINDS NOT SUBSIDE
MUCH TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BREWING IN THE PLAINS. THE WINDS WILL
HELP BOLSTER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING FROM THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA OVER THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT...AND THAT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
UP.I INCREASED THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND. GUSTY SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND
AREAS...AND NE OR ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. I INCREASED
THE WINDS OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST QUITE A BIT. THE GFS BUFR AND
NAM12 SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF FLOW IN THE MIXING
LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHLAND WILL
LIKELY SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THOSE MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN
HAD HIGHER WINDS...BUT I DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE THE WINDS TOO
MUCH SO AS TO NOT MAKE A KNEE JERK REACTION FORECAST. IF THE
SUBSEQUENT MODELS COME IN JUST AS HIGHER OR HIGHER...THAN THE
NIGHT SHIFT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE WINDS EVEN MORE AND MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY. SHOWERS AND STRAY STORMS COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY NE MINNESOTA...DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL MUCH CAPE...SO I
IMAGINE ANY STRAY STORMS WILL BE WEAK. MOST OF ANY PCPN SHOULD BE
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

ACTIVE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MULTIPLE WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

HAVE EXPANDED ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SMALL CAPE VALUES. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WINDS
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG MIXING DUE TO COLD TEMPS ALOFT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD. FOCUS TURNS
TO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...AND
INTO WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM
TRACK WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. SOME 4-6KFT CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE DID NOT MENTION LLWS IN ANY OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING WE`LL MONITOR CLOSELY
THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND RAP BOTH SHOW 0.5KM WINDS INCREASING TO
SOUTHERLY FROM 30 TO 35KT TONIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS
POINT...WE ONLY MENTION THEM AT KBRD AS THEY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  68  52  57 /   0  20  50  20
INL  55  73  53  54 /  10  10  60  30
BRD  58  73  49  55 /   0  60  40  20
HYR  53  75  52  60 /   0  10  30  20
ASX  51  75  54  61 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 913 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST MAINLY FOR PRECIPITATION AREA OVER CENTRAL ZONES.
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SURFACE COMBINED WITH
WEAK JET DIVERGENCE HAS GENERATED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM BRIDGER TO BILLINGS TO JUST EAST OF ROUNDUP THAT IS NOT
MOVING MUCH. THE LATEST RAP IS HANDLING THIS FEATURE THE BEST OF
THE MODELS RIGHT NOW AND IT SLOWLY SHIFTS THIS FEATURE EAST LATER
TONIGHT...BUT COULD CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RAIN IN THE BILLINGS
AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FURTHER EAST DRY SLOT HAS FILLED INTO AREAS
FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THIS
AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AND MAY BE GENERALLY EAST OF A MILES CITY TO
BROADUS LINE. KEPT A MORE BROADBRUSHED POP IN OVERNIGHT THOUGH
GIVEN MODEL DIFFICULTIES. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
DOWN JUST A BIT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS BUT OVERALL TEMP FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE. NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD
BEGIN SCOURING OUT PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPSLOPE INTO
THE BIG HORNS COULD BRING 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW THERE. KEPT
AMOUNTS JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...BUT MID SHIFT WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA FOR HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPMENT REQUIRING AN
ADVISORY. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY
BRINGING TIGHT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES LOOK TO HAVE A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE STATE BORDER
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER CARTER AND
FALLON COUNTIES AND GUSTS TO 55 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE. STRONGER WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE IF SYSTEM WRAPS UP TIGHTER AND VERTICAL MOTION
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST BUT AT THIS TIME BUFKIT INDICATES STRONGEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN OFF THE SURFACE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT
THIS ONLY LOOKS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT EVERYTHING IS SHIFTING EAST AND WEATHER PATTERN
QUIETS DOWN. SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BEGINS SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS BUT
PLAINS SHOULD STAY DRY. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE A STORM
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HOW LONG THE PRECIP LASTS...AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM BUT ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL.

ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER LOW AND QUICKLY MOVES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE 500MB UPPER LOW AND
KEEPS THEM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH DAKOTA TO UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. 700MB LOWS ARE IN SIMILAR POSITIONS AS THE 500MB
LOWS FOR EACH MODEL. BOTH MODELS BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA BUT
MAINLY FROM BIGHORN COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
BRINGS SOME DECENT QPF INTO YELLOWSTONE COUNTY BUT THE GFS DOES
NOT. BOTH MODELS ALSO HOLD OFF BULK OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DECENT PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
A ROSEBUD COUNTY TO FALLON COUNTY LINE SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES
HOVER IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DURATION SO A
RAIN AND/OR WET SNOW SCENARIO LOOKS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS OR HIGHLIGHTS OF SOME KIND SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC.

AS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING ANY
SYSTEM WELL AT THIS POINT SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. BY 12 UTC FRIDAY...A
SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MT AROUND KBHK AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OR
HIGHER WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY FROM KSHR TO KMLS AND KBHK TOO. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/054 036/053 036/044 031/042 031/047 033/054 033/054
    +2/W    11/B    24/W    44/O    21/U    02/W    21/B
LVM 034/050 033/050 030/044 028/039 028/046 032/052 032/052
    43/W    12/W    36/W    44/O    21/U    12/W    21/B
HDN 041/055 037/054 036/046 032/043 032/048 032/053 032/053
    72/W    11/B    14/W    44/O    22/W    02/W    21/B
MLS 044/056 037/055 035/051 036/045 031/051 032/056 032/056
    72/W    00/B    13/W    66/R    32/W    02/W    21/B
4BQ 044/053 036/053 035/049 034/039 032/048 033/053 033/053
    95/W    10/B    13/W    66/O    32/W    12/W    22/W
BHK 046/052 035/052 032/050 036/040 029/047 031/055 031/055
    +9/W    10/U    13/W    66/O    32/W    02/W    22/W
SHR 038/052 033/052 031/048 034/039 028/046 029/049 029/049
    64/W    11/B    24/W    66/O    22/W    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 614 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
FORMED ACROSS ERN COLORADO SETTING UP AN STATIONARY FRONT AND
INVERTED TROF FROM KOGA TO KVTN. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WILL VEER OFF LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL AIR BY 21Z. THE MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND MID 70S ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE GEMREG...NAM12...HRRR AND RAP13 MODELS. THERE IS STILL
SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS NORTHWEST SHERIDAN COUNTY WHICH COULD
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE GFS AND RAP MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THE CIRRUS TODAY. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH MOVING IN TONIGHT. THE MAIN LIMITATION ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE VERTICAL MIXING AND WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT.

OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SHOWS DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEPS LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S TONIGHT. SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF MIXING PROCESSES TO AROUND
800 MB. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH TWO WEATHER MAKERS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH THE
FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
NEARLY ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THE SECOND
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THE SECOND SYSTEM
LATER.

AS MENTIONED...ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND INGREDIENTS FOR AN EPISODE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRACK
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP DRAW
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY EARLY
EVENING MIXED LAYER DEW POINTS AT 500 METERS ARE IN THE
50 TO 55F DEGREE RANGE...WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS AT LEAST 10C IN MOST
OPERATIONAL MODELS. IT APPEARS THAT THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG
FORCING/COOLING ALOFT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...WHERE STORMS WILL FORM RAPIDLY ALONG AN ADVANCING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. THE 09/00Z NAM MODEL SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST TO THE EAST OF THESE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS. THESE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN
COMBINATION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR...SHOULD ENSURE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS
TO SPREAD EAST. UPPER AIR FORECAST SOUNDING AT NORTH PLATTE BY MID
EVENING INDICATES WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS...TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS...AND SOUTHWEST IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A BIT MORE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...AS WINDS VEER A BIT MORE IN THE MID LEVELS THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING. THIS COULD HELP KEEP STORMS A BIT MORE
DISCRETE...BUT OVERALL IT STILL APPEARS THAT A SQUALL LINE WITH WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. IF STORMS WOULD HAPPEN TO
STAY A BIT MORE DISCRETE...THEN A TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...AS STORMS SPREAD EAST INTO AN AREA OF HIGH HELICITY VALUES. IN
FACT...DO TO THE STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...0 TO 3 KM HELICITY VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 500 M2/S2 BY MID
EVENING THURSDAY NIGHT AT NORTH PLATTE. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITED.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STORMS MAY
DECREASE TO NEAR ZERO BY THE TIME THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND BARTLETT AND
ONEILL.

AFTER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THURSDAY EVENING...THE NEXT CONCERN IS
WIND POTENTIAL ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 09/00Z NAM DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TO NEAR 989 MB
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY NOONTIME FRIDAY. 500 METER WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 33 KTS FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD SUPPORT NEAR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE. WINDS
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING NICE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE MONDAY. THE 09/00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOW SHOWING THIS SYSTEM POTENTIALLY COMING
THOUGH AS A CLOSED SYSTEM...LIKE THE 08/12Z AND 09/00Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF SHOW. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...AS IT HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WOULD BRING
A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS ERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW SOME
BKN-OVC040 CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN NEAR KVTN. THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS THESE CIGS NEAR 3KFT AGL. EITHER WAY ALL MODELS DISSIPATE
THESE CIGS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED GRAMMAR

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 304 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
FORMED ACROSS ERN COLORADO SETTING UP AN STATIONARY FRONT AND
INVERTED TROF FROM KOGA TO KVTN. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WILL VEER OFF LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL AIR BY 21Z. THE MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND MID 70S ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE GEMREG...NAM12...HRRR AND RAP13 MODELS. THERE IS STILL
SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS NORTHWEST SHERIDAN COUNTY WHICH COULD
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE GFS AND RAP MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THE CIRRUS TODAY. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH MOVING IN TONIGHT. THE MAIN LIMITATION ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE VERTICAL MIXING AND WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT.

OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SHOWS DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEPS LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S TONIGHT. SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF MIXING PROCESSES TO AROUND
800 MB. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH TWO WEATHER MAKERS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH THE
FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
NEARLY ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THE SECOND
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THE SECOND SYSTEM
LATER.

AS MENTIONED...ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND INGREDIENTS FOR AN EPISODE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRACK
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP DRAW
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY EARLY
EVENING MIXED LAYER DEW POINTS AT 500 METERS ARE IN THE
50 TO 55F DEGREE RANGE...WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS AT LEAST 10C IN MOST
OPERATIONAL MODELS. IT APPEARS THAT THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG
FORCING/COOLING ALOFT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...WHERE STORMS WILL FORM RAPIDLY ALONG AN ADVANCING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. THE 09/00Z NAM MODEL SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST TO THE EAST OF THESE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS. THESE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN
COMBINATION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR...SHOULD ENSURE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS
TO SPREAD EAST. UPPER AIR FORECAST SOUNDING AT NORTH PLATTE BY MID
EVENING INDICATES WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS...TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS...AND SOUTHWEST IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A BIT MORE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...AS WINDS VEER A BIT MORE IN THE MID LEVELS THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING. THIS COULD HELP KEEP STORMS A BIT MORE
DISCRETE...BUT OVERALL IT STILL APEARS THAT A SQUALL LINE WITH WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. IF STORMS WOULD HAPPEN TO
STAY A BIT MORE DISCRETE...THEN A TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...AS STORMS SPREAD EAST INTO AN AREA OF HIGH HELICITY VALUES. IN
FACT...DO TO THE STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...0 TO 3 KM HELICITY VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 500 M2/S2 BY MID
EVENING THURSDAY NIGHT AT NORTH PLATTE. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITED.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STORMS MAY
DECREASE TO NEAR ZERO BY THE TIME THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND BARTLETT AND
ONEILL.

AFTER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THURSDAY EVENING...THE NEXT CONCERN IS
WIND POTENTIAL ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 09/00Z NAM DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TO NEAR 989 MB
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY NOONTIME FRIDAY. 500 METER WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 33 KTS FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD SUPPORT NEAR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE. WINDS
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING NICE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE MONDAY. THE 09/00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOW SHOWING THIS SYSTEM POTENTIALLY COMING
THOUGH AS A CLOSED SYSTEM...LIKE THE 08/12Z AND 09/00Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF SHOW. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...AS IT HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WOULD BRING
A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013

VFR FLIGHT CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL BE AON 25000 FT AGL. WINDS AT
THE KLBF TERMINAL WILL BE FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10
KTS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT UNDER 10
KTS TONIGHT AND WEDS EVENING...WITH SERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 234 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
FORMED ACROSS ERN COLORADO SETTING UP AN STATIONARY FRONT AND
INVERTED TROF FROM KOGA TO KVTN. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WILL VEER OFF LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL AIR BY 21Z. THE MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND MID 70S ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE GEMREG...NAM12...HRRR AND RAP13 MODELS. THERE IS STILL
SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS NORTHWEST SHERIDAN COUNTY WHICH COULD
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE GFS AND RAP MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THE CIRRUS TODAY. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH MOVING IN TONIGHT. THE MAIN LIMITATION ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE VERTICAL MIXING AND WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT.

OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SHOWS DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEPS LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S TONIGHT. SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF MIXING PROCESSES TO AROUND
800 MB. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH TWO WEATHER MAKERS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH THE
FIRST SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
NEARLY ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THE SECOND
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THE SECOND SYSTEM
LATER.

AS MENTIONED...ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND INGREDIENTS FOR AN EPISODE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRACK
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP DRAW
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY EARLY
EVENING MIXED LAYER DEW POINTS AT 500 METERS ARE IN THE
50 TO 55F DEGREE RANGE...WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS AT LEAST 10C IN MOST
OPERATIONAL MODELS. IT APPEARS THAT THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG
FORCING/COOLING ALOFT WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...WHERE STORMS WILL FORM RAPIDLY ALONG AN ADVANCING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. THE 09/00Z NAM MODEL SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST TO THE EAST OF THESE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS. THESE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN
COMBINATION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR...SHOULD ENSURE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS
TO SPREAD EAST. UPPER AIR FORECAST SOUNDING AT NORTH PLATTE BY MID
EVENING INDICATES WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS...TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS...AND SOUTHWEST IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A BIT MORE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...AS WINDS VEER A BIT MORE IN THE MID LEVELS THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING. THIS COULD HELP KEEP STORMS A BIT MORE
DISCRETE...BUT STILL APPEARS THAT OVERALL A SQUALL LINE WITH WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. IF STORMS WOULD HAPPEN TO
STAY A BIT MORE DISCRETE...THEN A TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...AS STORMS SPREAD EAST INTO AN AREA OF HIGH HELICITY VALUES. IN
FACT...DO TO THE STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...0 TO 3 KM HELICITY VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 500 M2/S2 BY MID
EVENING THURSDAY NIGHT AT NORTH PLATTE. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITED.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STORMS MAY
DECREASE TO NEAR ZERO BY THE TIME THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND BARTLETT AND
ONEILL.

AFTER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THURSDAY EVENING...THE NEXT CONCERN IS
WIND POTENTIAL ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. 09/00Z NAM DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TO NEAR 989 MB
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY NOONTIME FRIDAY. 500 METER WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 33 KTS FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD SUPPORT NEAR WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE. WINDS
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING NICE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE MONDAY. THE 09/00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOW SHOWING THIS SYSTEM POTENTIALLY COMING
THOUGH AS A CLOSED SYSTEM...LIKE THE 08/12Z AND 09/00Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF SHOW. WILL TREND THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION THE ECMWF...AS
IT HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WOULD BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013

VFR FLIGHT CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL BE AON 25000 FT AGL. WINDS AT
THE KLBF TERMINAL WILL BE FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10
KTS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT UNDER 10
KTS TONIGHT AND WEDS EVENING...WITH SERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 324 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK...BEFORE FINALLY TRACKING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS SHOULD LIFT INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA BY TONIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF SAVANNAH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION ABOUT 200 MILES EAST
OF MYRTLE BEACH LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY NORTH WINDS TODAY...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PLAYING CATCH-UP WITH THE LIMITED DISTRIBUTION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT RAINFALL AROUND OUR COASTAL LOW THIS
MORNING. RADAR ECHOES ARE GENERALLY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND
NORTHWESTWARD...AND MATCHING THAT UP WITH MODEL WIND PROFILES SHOWS
PRECIPITATION LIKELY IS BEING GENERATED ALONG THE 310K-315K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES WHICH ARE LOCATED 10K-15KFT ALOFT. THIS REGION
OF LIFT SHOULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME TODAY...LEAVING
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF MY FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT THE ONLY AREAS I HAVE CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS
MORNING ARE NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES...POTENTIALLY SPREADING
BACK A LITTLE DEEPER IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY MID-MORNING
AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PIVOTS BEHIND THE 700 MB LOW LIFTING NORTH
ALONG THE NC COASTLINE.

BY THIS AFTERNOON THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE...WITH BREAKS OPENING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTH CAROLINA. AN OTHERWISE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS SHOULD
STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM SPIKING TOO HIGH DESPITE THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION...AND I AM EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO TOUCH 70 NEAR THE
SANTEE RIVER...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE SOUTH
CAROLINA. ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA MID 60S ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW MIGHT BE ON THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE IF
DENSE CLOUDS OR LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB BUT
PREVAILING ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL LOW
SHOULD JUST ABOUT END PRECIPITATION CHANCES. I WILL STILL CARRY A 20
POP THROUGH THE EVENING JUST IN CASE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN REMAINS.
A SUFFICIENT DEPTH OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA TO ADD AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST AS WELL. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE TENTATIVELY PROGGED TO REACH THE MID 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS A BIG
QUESTION MARK. IF SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION WINDS
COULD PARTIALLY DECOUPLE WITH LOWS FALLING TOWARD 50. IF ENOUGH
CLOUDS REMAIN TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING THEN MID 50S WILL
OCCUR...AS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AREA-WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN WX FEATURE AFFECTING THE FA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD INCLUDES THE UPPER LOW...THAT NEARLY BECOMES
CUTOFF. MODELS IE. GFS NAM EUROPEAN CANADIAN JUST TO NAME A
FEW...ARE AMAZINGLY SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHERS SOLUTIONS. THE RATHER
LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN U.S. THRUOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD. ONE WOULD THINK OF NEAR NORMAL OR HIGHER THERE OF
WOULD AFFECT THE FA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT
THE CASE. MODELS AGAIN AMAZINGLY SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER WITH RESPECT
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND/OR VIRGINIA. IT REMAINS RATHER DOCILE AND STATIONARY
UNDERNEATH THE RATHER LARGE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. AREAS
THAT WILL OBSERVE THE BEST CHANCE...AND THE HIGHER POPS...WILL LIE
BASICALLY IN AN EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...FROM N-NE
TO SE-S...TURNING CLOCKWISE. THE BETTER TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE...
FEEDING FROM OFF THE ATL OCEAN...IS EXHIBITED QUITE WELL FROM THE
VARIOUS MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIME-HEIGHTS. THIS SEMI-CIRCLE WILL
REMAIN OUT OF RANGE FROM THE ILM CWA...ALTHOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CIRCULATING THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MORE CLOUDINESS
THEN SUN OR MOON SHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE SFC TO 600 MB LAYER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...
WITH ONLY WEAK DYNAMICS FROM VARIOUS MID-LEVEL VORTS ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW...THEREBY AIDING AND INCREASING WEAK FORCING/UVVS.
OVERALL...WILL HAVE A RANGE OF POPS ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE  HIGHER
POPS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE N-NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AND DECREASING
QUITE DRAMATICALLY AS YOU PROGRESS TO THE S-SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.
AS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS THRUOUT THE SHORT TERM...STAYED CLOSER TO THE
COOLER GFS MOS OUTPUT. COULD POSSIBLY GO EVEN LOWER BY A FEW DEGREES
AS OVERCAST AND PCPN CONDITIONS AFFECT THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE NEMESIS UPPER LOW UNDERNEATH THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGING...TO REMAIN THE PROBLEM CHILD DURING THIS PERIOD. AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT...MODELS NO LONGER SIMILAR WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS. MODELS DO HOWEVER...TRANSITION THE UPPER CLOSED LOW INTO
AN OPEN S/W TROF BY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. MODELS SLOWLY TRACK
IT TO THE EAST ALLOWING DRIER AIR...UPSTREAM FROM THE W-NW...TO WORK
ITS WAY ACROSS THE FA AT ALL LEVELS. IN ADDITION SUBSIDENCE AND NVA
ALOFT...WILL PLACE A LID ON ANY MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AND DIMINISH THE PCPN THREAT. THIS OVERALL LOWERED CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPMENT AND PCPN FORMATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS
INDICATE THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST DURING
TUESDAY. WILL INDICATE A LOW POP FOR LATE TUE NIGHT. AS FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS THIS PERIOD...STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS OUTPUT...WITH 80+
MAXES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
IN GENERAL BE AT OR HIGHER THAN CLIMO BY A CATEGORY OR 2.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST...ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS AT
KILM WHERE CIGS BELOW 1KFT HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT CRE/MYR/FLO/LBT. THE BEST-INITIALIZED MODEL
APPEARS TO BE THE 04Z RUC WHICH CAPTURES SURFACE TEMPERATURE/
DEWPOINT TRENDS AND CEILING HEIGHTS THE BEST.

THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY...AND WITH IT THE BEST LIFT WILL BE DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VCSH IN THE FCST...BUT IT APPEARS PCPN
CHANCES DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA BY THE AFTN. THE LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BECOMING AOB 12 KTS AFTER
00Z THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST
OF SAVANNAH HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1010 MB...NOT
PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY. HOWEVER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAS A PRESSURE OF 1031 MB...AND THIS 21 MB OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THE GALE WARNING FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AS
HIGH AS 35 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SC WATERS THROUGH 8
AM...AND THROUGH 11 AM FOR THE NC WATERS. WINDS WILL NOT DIMINISH
VERY QUICKLY HOWEVER...AND EVEN TONIGHT 20-25 KT WINDS WILL REQUIRE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN POSTED. MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SEAS CURRENTLY AS HIGH AS 10 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY
ARE MEASURED AT 6 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY AND
AT THE NEW BUOY JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT. SEAS HAVE GROWN ABOUT AS
LARGE AS THE CURRENT WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW...AND WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO NOTICE A DOWNWARD TREND IN SEA HEIGHTS LATER TODAY
AS WINDS DIMINISH.

RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR...AND COULD VANISH FROM THE COASTAL WATERS ENTIRELY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PINCHED SFC PG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ILM
WATERS THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. THIS A RESULT OF THE INTERACTION OF
1030MB HIGH RIDGING SSW ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA
COASTS. MODELS INDICATE A RATHER SLOW WEAKENING OR FILLING OF THIS
SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO BECOME BAROTROPIC IN NATURE. THE SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS WILL YIELD A NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...
NNW-NE. SPEEDS WILL PEAK DURING THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND
THERE-AFTER INTO SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT
AND PEAK AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...THURSDAY MORNING...AND
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THERE-AFTER. AT TIMES...SWAN AND/OR WAVEWATCH3 WANT
TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANT SEAS TOO QUICKLY GIVEN AN EVENT SIMILAR TO
THIS. AS A RESULT...WILL STAY UP TO 1 FOOT HIER THAN SWAN/WW3 FOR
SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD. DOMINATE PERIODS WILL RUN 7 TO 8 SECONDS.
WILL LIKELY BE IN A TRANSITION FROM SCA CONDITIONS TO SCEC
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AGAIN BE GOVERNED BY AN
UPPER CLOSED LOW...RESULTING WITH A CONTINUED TIGHTENED SFC PG
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS. THE TIGHTENED SFC PG EVOLVED FROM THE
INTERACTION OF STRONG 1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND WHICH RIDGES SW ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND
THE MEANDERING/DRIFTING UPPER CLOSED LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
OFF THE COAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS. LOOKING AT NW-N WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE. SIG SEAS WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOME TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...AND WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THIS
TREND ESPECIALLY WHEN WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE. WAVEWATCH3 SEAS WERE
UTILIZED FOR THIS PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN WILL BE FLIRTING WITH SCEC
CRITERIA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ254-256.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...TRA/BJR








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 130 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 845 PM TUESDAY...

TONIGHT...
AND EARLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO LOWER POPS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE BAND OF MODERATE RAIN THAT COVERAGE THE
CENTRAL CWA EARLIER TODAY AS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO SC.  MOST OF THE
RAIN IS NOW FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT RESIDE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
CENTER OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED NUMEROUS VORT
MAXIMA IS OVER SC...AND THE LATEST RAP SHOWS THE MOST PROMINENT AND
INVERTED 500MB TROUGH/VORT MAX EXTENDING FROM SC TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE OBX.  AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ALSO APPEARS TO BE
SURGING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW.  WHILE MODELS HAVE PERFORMED POORLY THUS
FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS AT LEAST DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST RAP IN THE BEST UPPER FORCING
FOCUSING FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH INCREASING ONSHORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  WILL INDICATE
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WITHOUT GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE HI-RES MODELS...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A LARGE AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS
AT THIS TIME.  MAY REEVALUATE AFTER THE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS.
ELSEWHERE...WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.  LOWS SHOULDN`T MOVE MUCH LOWER THAN THEIR
CURRENT VALUES UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...WITH LOWER 50S WEST AND UPPER
50S EAST. -SMITH

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PERIODS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER POPS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

EXPECT A SHARP EAST TO WEST CUT-OFF IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS...RANGING
FROM AS HIGH AS AN INCH IN EAST(AND WHERE EVER PRECIP BANDS SETUP)
TO POSSIBLY ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS IN THE TRIAD.

LOWS TOMORROW TONIGHT AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. -CBL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH THE EXACT DETAILS OF EVOLUTION
OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE. THE LOW(S) WILL NOT MOVE VERY MUCH THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE PERIOD AS A BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC. NEVERTHELESS...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE THESE LOWS WILL
ULTIMATELY TRACK...AS ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE DEEP MOISTURE
MAY GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE LOW(S) SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD ALSO ALLOW THE PRECIP TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD DUE TO THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO ACCORDINGLY THIN OUT
SOME...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING COMPLETE CLEARING BY ANY MEANS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW TEMPS TO FINALLY RISE SOME...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY (COOLEST NORTHEAST/WARMEST SOUTHWEST).
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...FOR THE
WEEKEND...THE OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOWER THAN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE UPPER LOW
(WHICH IS PROGGED TO HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS POINT) TO
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...
WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING TO
A DRY FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE FINALLY GET ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WILL ACCORDINGLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS STACKED OVER TOP OF A
SURFACE LOW JUST OFF OF THE GEORGIA COAST. BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER
THE CENTER OF THE CWA HAS WANED WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST IN THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS AT KFAY
MAY SPREAD TO KRWI LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...
KRDU SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT WILL BE RIGHT AROUND THE 3 KFT LEVEL AND
MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/MVFR. THE TRIAD SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN MAY CONTINUE
IN THE EAST AS SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHTER RAINFALL. LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING EXPECT GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO ONCE AGAIN
PICK UP AND BY AFTERNOON 20-25 KT GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACK OFF A BIT NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

LONG TERM: WEATHER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS NEARLY
STATIONARY OFF THE COAST. KRWI IS THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO BE
AFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM THE LONGEST. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES THE LOW JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA TO CLEAR
THINGS UP A BIT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/SMITH
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...ELLIS

















AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 122 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IS HESITANT TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A
GRADUAL RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM A SMALL AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY SC ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR-EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS WHITEVILLE AND
ELIZABETHTOWN. RADAR PRESENTATION IS A LITTLE LESS THAN I HAD
ANTICIPATED...SO QPF TOTALS HAVE BEEN CUT BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK
TO NO MORE THAN TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS THERE
SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF RAIN BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS SHARES
THIS IDEA BUT THE 18Z/00Z NAM DISAGREE. GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT I
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT FOR THE CURRENT RADAR INITIALIZATION.

OUR LITTLE PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS IS THE CHILLIEST ANYWHERE IN THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT OR COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS. NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ACTUALLY ADVECT NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INLAND THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE ADDITIONAL EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THIS MEANS WE ARE
PROBABLY AT OUR ULTIMATE LOW TEMPERATURE NOW...WITH STEADY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM
FOLLOWS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ALONG A STALLED FRONT
ABOUT 190 MILES SE OF WINYAH BAY LATE THIS EVE. HIGH PRESSURE
POSITIONED TO OUR N WAS WEDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR INLAND MOST
ZONES. AN UPPER LOW WAS CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LOCATED ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A VERY SLOW EVOLUTION OF
THESE FEATURES. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CREEP N OR
CONSOLIDATE TO OUR N AND OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS...BUT IT MAY TAKE
A GOOD 24 TO 36 HOURS FOR THIS TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED.

MOST OF THE RAIN LATE THIS EVE IS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND E OF A
LINE FROM GALIVANTS FERRY TO WHITEVILLE AND UP THROUGH THE CAPE FEAR
REGION. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST
RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...APPRECIABLE LIFT
DOES BLEED ONTO THE COAST AND WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS...UP TO
CATEGORICAL...ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WITH A VERY SLOW EROSION FROM
S TO N THROUGH SUNRISE.

COOL ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 50S FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL REMAIN TIGHT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE
10 TO 20 MPH RANGE INLAND. ALONG THE COAST...WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...1010MB LOW JUST OFF OF NE/EC FLORIDA COAST AND
SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT. THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ORIGINALS WARM FRONT
EAST OF HSE AND RETROGRADE INTO THE OBX BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THE AREA SEES. FOR NOW IT STILL SEEMS LIKE GOOD RAINFALL
CHANCES...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE RAPIDLY ON THE WANE AS THE STRONGEST MOISTURE
FLUX SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
PROBABLY OUT OF WHACK AND NOT RESPECTING SHALLOW (1500FT) COOL AIR
AS INDICATED BY LARGE ERRORS IN THE CURRENT SITUATION/TUE AFTERNOON.
IN FACT BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS SHOULD EVEN LIGHT RAIN KEEP FALLING
INTO THIS WEDGE ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR 60 MAY BE ON TAP...A BIT COOLER
THAN CURRENT FCST OF MID 60S BUT SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE. THURSDAY IS A TOUGH FORECAST TOO. GFS HAS THE NORTHERN LOW
BECOME DOMINANT AND WEAKENS THE SOUTHERN/FLORIDA LOW TO JUST AN OPEN
TROUGH. THE WRF HAS BOTH MAINTAIN AS SEPARATE YET SEEMINGLY WANTING
TO CONGEAL LOW CENTERS. THE WRF WOULD PROBABLY IMPLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF YET ANOTHER GRAY AND COLD DAY WHERE THE GFS SHOWS WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE OVER NRN ZONES BUT POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS SOUTH AND WEST.
SUSPECT THAT THE WRF SOLN IS SLIGHTLY MORE REALISTIC AS THE SOUTHERN
SURFACE LOW REMAINS CLOSE TO THE UPPER WAVE AND SHOULD NOT FILL AS
QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY GFS EVEN DESPITE ITS OCCLUSION AS GULF STREAM
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME BAROCLINICITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN
THE APPALACHIANS WHILE COASTAL TROUGH/LOW EXTENDS UP THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS...A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE VA/NC BORDER ON
FRIDAY WILL ALSO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS UP FROM THE GOM TO THE GREAT LAKES MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AS WELL. THE MODELS ALL SHOW THIS TO VARYING EXTENTS IN
BOTH INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT. WITH THE LOW TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT TO
SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE
PROFILES DO SHOW SOME DRYING THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BUT HOLD ONTO CLOUD DECK NEAR THE
COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN A MORE
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST WITH DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AND SUN BREAKING OUT.
IF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS MORE SOUTHWARD BEFORE MOVING FURTHER OFF
SHORE...THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHC OF CLOUDS BUT ANY APPRECIABLE
PCP WILL BE KEPT OUT OF FORECAST REMAINING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
THEREFORE GRADIENT SHOULD RUN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH BEST
CHC OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS BEING OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CWA...OVER INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SLOW
RISE IN HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS BUT A COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THE FRONT END OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGED IN ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS FROM NEW ENGLAND. THE
GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF DEPTH AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING A MORE PESSIMISTIC AND COOLER
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AGAIN...WILL KEEP
WITH GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS THE FARTHER
SOUTHWEST YOU GO. BASICALLY SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE MODELS
NEED TO RESOLVE THE STRENGTH AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF LOW WHICH IN
TURN COULD POSSIBLY CREATING A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WITH GREATER
NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES PRODUCING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR OR
GREATER MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST...ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS AT
KILM WHERE CIGS BELOW 1KFT HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT CRE/MYR/FLO/LBT. THE BEST-INITIALIZED MODEL
APPEARS TO BE THE 04Z RUC WHICH CAPTURES SURFACE TEMPERATURE/
DEWPOINT TRENDS AND CEILING HEIGHTS THE BEST.

THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY...AND WITH IT THE BEST LIFT WILL BE DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VCSH IN THE FCST...BUT IT APPEARS PCPN
CHANCES DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA BY THE AFTN. THE LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BECOMING AOB 12 KTS AFTER
00Z THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTS IN THE PAST TWO HOURS HAVE BEEN AS
HIGH AS 39 KNOTS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY OFFSHORE. WITHIN
20 MILES OF SHORE MEASURED WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN LOWER...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS REMAINS PRESENT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS...

A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED. LOW PRESSURE WAS CREEPING UP ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WAS WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE N. THE
DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WAS PRODUCING A
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE RESULT WAS SUSTAINED OR
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
ONLY SLOWLY RELAX AND THIS MAY ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
DURING WED. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NNE. THE STRONG WINDS HAVE
BUILT SEAS UP TO 7 TO 10 FT AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE LOWER IN THE SHADOW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NRN FLORIDA COAST TO
WOBBLE AROUND NEARLY STATIONARY MOST OF WEDNESDAY. SECONDARY LOW
FORMS ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE AND RETROGRADES
TOWARDS OBX LATE WED NIGHT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO WILL
AFFECT THE EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF THE WIND AND WAVES LOCALLY. THERE
IS JUST ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD TO MAKE IT UNCLEAR AS TO THE SPEED
WITH WHICH THIS OCCURS AND HOW VALID OUR END TIMES ARE FOR THE
CURRENT ADVISORY. CURRENT UPDATE SUGGEST THAT NRN ZONES MAY BE
FINE BUT AREAS FURTHER SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED TO SCEC OR
CANCELLED ALTOGETHER. SIMILARLY...THE UNCERTAINTY SUGGEST THAT
MAKING CHANGES AT THIS TIME OF LITTLE VALUE IN CASE THINGS CHANGE.
LATER THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERN LOW WEAKENS AND THE NORTHERN ONE
MOVES FURTHER NORTH THE LOCAL FLOW WILL BACK IN DIRECTION AND EASE
SLIGHTLY IN SPEED. OR THE TWO MAY TAKE ON A MORE CONGEALED FORM
WITH TWO WEAK CENTERS VYING TO REMAIN...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS
SEEMINGLY A LITTLE MORE PLAUSIBLE. EITHER WAY NO FLAGS OR
HEADLINES EXPECTED THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN
THE APPALACHIANS WHILE COASTAL TROUGH/LOW EXTENDS UP THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE IN A PINCHED
GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS SHOULD BE 10-15 KTS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND BUT THE STRENGTH MAY VARY DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE LOW TRACKS BEFORE IT MOVES AWAY WILL
DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. ALSO...THE COOL AIR RIDING OVER
THE WARMER WATERS WILL KEEP STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WHICH MAY KICK UP THE SEAS AT TIMES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/TRA






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

 944 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

.UPDATE...
THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE HAS SHOWN THE NOCTURNAL CAPPING INVERSION
INCREASING IN STRENGTH WITH TIME WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. WITH THAT BEING SAID AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST CAN`T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO BE DRAGGED TO
THE SURFACE DURING CONVECTIVE DECAY.

CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
FURTHER NORTH. THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUC REPRESENTS THIS PRETTY WELL AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN THE AREA UNTIL 7-8Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUT WEST...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT. VIRGA SHOWERS OVERRUNNING THE DRY AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT GIVES RISE TO CONCERN FOR ISOLATED HIGH WIND GUSTS AS THE
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED AIR COULD DRAG HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. FOR THIS REASON THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS INTACT FOR
NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

AVIATION...
GRADIENT WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT AT KDHT AND KGUY.
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
ECHOES SEEN ON RADAR HAVE YET TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING IN FORECAST
AREA...YET CONVECTIVE GUSTS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL STILL PRODUCE
SEVERE GUSTS OF 50 KT.  PASSAGE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS.  NO
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRODUCTS ISSUED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 545.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

ALL SIGNS POINT TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PANHANDLES WITH
MULTIPLE SHOTS AT PRECIPITATION. HAVE UTILIZED A NAM/ECMWF BLEND
FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL PERIODS FOLLOWED BY AN ALMOST STRICTLY ECMWF
SOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES AS THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME.
PLEASE SEE THE 1208 PM AFD UPDATE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THESE WILL BE PLEASANT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST EVERYWHERE
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A LOW LVL JET WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NWD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH DEWPTS SURGING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S BY MIDDAY
SUN. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD INTERACT WITH
PWATS WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND PERTURBED SW
FLOW ALOFT TO GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
BOOSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SOME OF THE STORMS ON SUN COULD BE SEVERE AS MOST MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
BULK SHEAR. THE SUN SEVERE THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE CONDITIONAL ON
DIURNAL HEATING...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP. WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON THIS PERIOD AS ALL
WEATHER TYPES COULD BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
A PACIFIC/ARCTIC FRONT COMBO WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LINGERING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE ERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AS IT PASSES
THROUGH ON MONDAY. IF SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY AND LOW CLOUDS DO NOT
PRECLUDE DIURNAL HEATING...SVR WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MON
AFTERNOON IN THE ERN PANHANDLES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED ECMWF FOR THIS
PERIOD. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY...WITH WEDNESDAY
POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. A BRIEF WARMUP
COULD COMMENCE THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BUT THE TIME WINDOW SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND FUELS ARE GENERALLY STILL GREEN IN THESE AREAS. BEYOND FRIDAY...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...
     SHERMAN.

OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

03/14






YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

 










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 457 AM PDT Wed Oct 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool but drier weather pattern is expected today through
Friday. The chance for precipitation will increase over the
weekend with the arrival of another low pressure system. Drier
conditions are expected to return at the start of the new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight...Cold core upper level low responsible for
yesterday round of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms
continues to sag southward this morning with swift north-northeast
oriented jet taking its place over the region. The jet was
associated with the front edge of a building upper level ridge and
will continue to make slow eastward progress over the Inland
Northwest today and tonight. The main result of this transition
will be a surge of drier air into the region and little if any
chance of precipitation. The atmosphere will be considerably more
stable than yesterday as 500 mb temps warm about 15-20c compared
to yesterday which will vastly outpace the 3-6c of warming below
850 mbs. The low level warming will result in high temperatures in
the mid 50s to mid 60s which is still around 5 degrees below the
seasonal normals. For tonight...the ridge will continue to ease
eastward with an elongated occluded front expected to push into
the NW part of the forecast area late tonight. Locations from the
Okanogan Highlands to the north Cascades will definitely see an
increasing cloud trend overnight...but whether rainfall occurs
will be the question. Model cross-sections suggest that if
precipitation were to occur it would be limited to locations near
the immediate crest late tonight...but the SREF would suggest any
measurable precipitation will hold off until daybreak. The
increasing clouds will decrease the radiational cooling potential
overnight...while a more desiccated boundary layer should keep the
chances for valley fog considerably less than what could form this
morning. fx

Thurs through Tue: We`ll only have to deal with two pcpn-
producing waves during the mid and extended range part of this
fcst cycle...the first one Thurs and the second (wetter) feature
Saturday. For Thurs, the majority of region will be under the
post-frontal dry slot characterized by occasionally gusty winds.
The highest pcpn threat will be along the border with BC,
especially in the afternoon as the trailing vort max and
accompanying steep mid- level lapse rates produce a favorable
environment for mainly late day showers. A very brief window of
opportunity for these showers, however. After this, the next short-
wave trough will track through the region Fri Nt and Saturday.
Though this will potentially be much wetter than the Thurs front,
the trend has been one of less amplification of the steering flow,
leading to a quicker transit time, less instability, and less
forcing for ascent. Even so, all of N Idaho and much of Ern Wa
should see some rain. Snow levels will be too high to cause any
issues for regional passes. Unfortunately again, confidence in the
timing and strength of this feature is low 4-5 days out,
especially given the model differences presented.bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Low confidence forecast at least through 17-18z or so for
the GEG-SFF-COE corridor as satellite fog product was detecting
widespread low clouds over the NE corner of WA and the northern ID
Panhandle. Visibilities and cigs below this deck will generally be
IFR but brief breaks are possible. Conditional climatology suggests
the clouds should lift and fog break up around 17z...and this notion
is supported by the latest HRRR model. Thus confidence is high that
we should see VFR conditions at these sites before midday. Other
problem spot is LWS and PUW where satellite shows clouds rapidly
expanding. Not sure on cigs quite yet since not impacting any nearby
airports...but MVFR/IFR cigs are certainly possible. Once the clouds
break up at all these sites...we should see widespread VFR
conditions for the last half of the forecasts as ridging builds over
the region. fx

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        56  38  57  37  55  38 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  57  37  57  37  55  38 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Pullman        58  37  55  35  55  38 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       61  42  59  40  60  41 /   0   0  10  10   0  10
Colville       59  37  59  36  58  36 /   0   0  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      56  35  55  35  55  36 /   0   0  10  20  10  10
Kellogg        54  36  51  37  51  36 /   0   0  20  20  10  10
Moses Lake     63  39  64  36  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      62  41  63  40  61  39 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           62  35  62  34  61  34 /   0   0  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
TODAY.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND STRENGTHENING
RIDGING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAS BEEN BRINGING A VARIETY OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO PLENTIFUL DRY
AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AS EVIDENCED ON 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM DDC TO OAX AND MPX...THE SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN ONLY
ABLE TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS. OF SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANCE
IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA PER SURFACE
ANALYSIS...35-50 KT SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS WERE PRESENT FROM WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SOME OF
THIS BREEZE EXTENDS DOWN THE SURFACE...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER...FEATURING AN UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
LAS VEGAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM
STRENGTHENS FURTHER TO HELP BALANCE THE DEEPER WESTERN TROUGH...
RESULTING IN A BLOCKED UP PATTERN. THUS...THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA GOES NOWHERE AND THE FORECAST
AREA STAYS IN DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAGNITUDE...A MEASURE OF HOW TIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS...MODELS PROG TO BE 40-50 PERCENT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. SO
ALTHOUGH MIXING AND MAINTAINING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
SUGGESTS BREEZY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...EXPECT WINDS TO NOT BE AS GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. 925MB
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST ABOUT 2C COOLER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM 14-16C VERSUS THE 17-20C OBSERVED FROM 00Z
SOUNDINGS. IT APPEARS THE REASON FOR THE COOLER CONDITIONS IS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE...HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE LOOKS TO PERSIST
TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS IN WISCONSIN STAND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF DECOUPLING AND
DROPPING CLOSER TO THE DRIER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS FRIDAY AND POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...
MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH...AND IN PARTICULAR THE UPPER LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS AT
12Z THURSDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL
GET EJECTED OUT AND SHUNTED NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY.
FROM THERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT PHASING OCCURS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MANITOBA
COME SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ON SUNDAY WHILE NEW TROUGHING
RELOADS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENTS
AMONGST THE MODEL HANDLING OF THIS NEW WESTERN TROUGH...PRIMARILY
ITS PROGRESSION EAST WHERE THE 09.00Z GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE
09.00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF AND 09.00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.

DETAILS...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE BLOCKED UP
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. WINDS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS WELL...IN RESPONSE TO
DYNAMICAL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT CAUSING
PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER THE PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOUT 1C FROM
TODAY...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY. MORE WIND AT
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE...SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE A
WARMER NIGHT AS WELL.

FRIDAY REMAINS A DAY TO FOCUS ON WINDS. AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOWS LIFT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FURTHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
GRADIENT IS ON PAR WITH THAT SEEN YESTERDAY...EXCEPT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA SEES THE STRONGER GRADIENT VERSUS JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THUS A WINDY DAY IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE...
ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. MIXING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
COULD BE REACHED IN THOSE LOCATIONS...SUCH AS DODGE CENTER AND
ROCHESTER MN. THE WINDS ALSO HELP DRIVE UP 925MB TEMPS TO
16-18C...SUPPORTING HIGHS AS MUCH AS THE MID TO UPPER 70S DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOCUS SWITCHES TO PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS
HEADING UP INTO MANITOBA HELPS TO DRAW HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 1-1.2
INCHES BY 00Z SATURDAY VERSUS THE 0.3-0.6 INCHES PRIOR TO THEN.
THOSE VALUES ARE ACTUALLY 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE QUESTION IS
IF FORCING EXISTS TO ACT ON THE MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS UNDESIRABLE...KEEPING THE DPVA FORCING
FROM IT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A SMALL PORTION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MAY BRUSH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...BUT THIS IS A LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY NIGHT MAY STAND TO HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN...IF THE 09.00Z CANADIAN MODEL FORECAST
IS CORRECT. THE MODEL BRINGS UP A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN INDICATED
BY ALL OTHER MODELS THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO IOWA BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TIGHTEN UP THE FRONTOGENESIS AROUND A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...
LEADING TO A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM POINT TO A DRY OR MOSTLY DRY
SCENARIO. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED 20 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE TO CHANGE TO A DRY
FORECAST. SATURDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR...WITH THE 09.00Z
GFS/CANADIAN AND 08.12Z ECMWF TRENDING DRIER...SUGGESTING  ANY
ADDITIONAL FRONTOGENETIC OR INSTABILITY FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OCCURS MOSTLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE 09.00Z ECMWF
CAME BACK SHOWING THIS FORCING OCCURRING FARTHER WEST...ENCOMPASSING
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN PRECIPITATION. THUS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION NEED TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW WESTERN TROUGH. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
WHEN THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY IMPACTS THE REGION...THEREFORE...HAVE
FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR RIGHT NOW THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON
THE NORTH/COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GREATER
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 09.00Z GFS REALLY
DEEPENS THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT THIS
SOLUTION IS VERY HARD TO TRUST GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
1229 PM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TAF PERIOD ARE SOUTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES. GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS
TO BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 12 TO 15 KNOTS AT BOTH TAF SITES AND
POTENTIALLY GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS AT RST THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT
SLACKENS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY ALLOWS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
VERY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP AND THIS WILL KEEP
NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MIX AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT LSE TAF SITE BETWEEN 10-14Z. GRADIENT
THEN TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER 14Z
THURSDAY AT BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DTJ







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 703 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
TODAY.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND STRENGTHENING
RIDGING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAS BEEN BRINGING A VARIETY OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO PLENTIFUL DRY
AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AS EVIDENCED ON 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM DDC TO OAX AND MPX...THE SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN ONLY
ABLE TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS. OF SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANCE
IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA PER SURFACE
ANALYSIS...35-50 KT SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS WERE PRESENT FROM WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SOME OF
THIS BREEZE EXTENDS DOWN THE SURFACE...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER...FEATURING AN UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
LAS VEGAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM
STRENGTHENS FURTHER TO HELP BALANCE THE DEEPER WESTERN TROUGH...
RESULTING IN A BLOCKED UP PATTERN. THUS...THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA GOES NOWHERE AND THE FORECAST
AREA STAYS IN DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAGNITUDE...A MEASURE OF HOW TIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS...MODELS PROG TO BE 40-50 PERCENT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. SO
ALTHOUGH MIXING AND MAINTAINING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
SUGGESTS BREEZY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...EXPECT WINDS TO NOT BE AS GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. 925MB
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST ABOUT 2C COOLER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM 14-16C VERSUS THE 17-20C OBSERVED FROM 00Z
SOUNDINGS. IT APPEARS THE REASON FOR THE COOLER CONDITIONS IS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE...HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE LOOKS TO PERSIST
TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS IN WISCONSIN STAND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF DECOUPLING AND
DROPPING CLOSER TO THE DRIER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS FRIDAY AND POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...
MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH...AND IN PARTICULAR THE UPPER LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS AT
12Z THURSDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL
GET EJECTED OUT AND SHUNTED NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY.
FROM THERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT PHASING OCCURS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MANITOBA
COME SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ON SUNDAY WHILE NEW TROUGHING
RELOADS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENTS
AMONGST THE MODEL HANDLING OF THIS NEW WESTERN TROUGH...PRIMARILY
ITS PROGRESSION EAST WHERE THE 09.00Z GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE
09.00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF AND 09.00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.

DETAILS...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE BLOCKED UP
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. WINDS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS WELL...IN RESPONSE TO
DYNAMICAL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT CAUSING
PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER THE PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOUT 1C FROM
TODAY...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY. MORE WIND AT
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE...SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE A
WARMER NIGHT AS WELL.

FRIDAY REMAINS A DAY TO FOCUS ON WINDS. AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOWS LIFT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FURTHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
GRADIENT IS ON PAR WITH THAT SEEN YESTERDAY...EXCEPT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA SEES THE STRONGER GRADIENT VERSUS JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THUS A WINDY DAY IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE...
ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. MIXING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
COULD BE REACHED IN THOSE LOCATIONS...SUCH AS DODGE CENTER AND
ROCHESTER MN. THE WINDS ALSO HELP DRIVE UP 925MB TEMPS TO
16-18C...SUPPORTING HIGHS AS MUCH AS THE MID TO UPPER 70S DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOCUS SWITCHES TO PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS
HEADING UP INTO MANITOBA HELPS TO DRAW HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 1-1.2
INCHES BY 00Z SATURDAY VERSUS THE 0.3-0.6 INCHES PRIOR TO THEN.
THOSE VALUES ARE ACTUALLY 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE QUESTION IS
IF FORCING EXISTS TO ACT ON THE MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS UNDESIRABLE...KEEPING THE DPVA FORCING
FROM IT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A SMALL PORTION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MAY BRUSH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...BUT THIS IS A LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY NIGHT MAY STAND TO HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN...IF THE 09.00Z CANADIAN MODEL FORECAST
IS CORRECT. THE MODEL BRINGS UP A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN INDICATED
BY ALL OTHER MODELS THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO IOWA BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TIGHTEN UP THE FRONTOGENESIS AROUND A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...
LEADING TO A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM POINT TO A DRY OR MOSTLY DRY
SCENARIO. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED 20 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE TO CHANGE TO A DRY
FORECAST. SATURDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR...WITH THE 09.00Z
GFS/CANADIAN AND 08.12Z ECMWF TRENDING DRIER...SUGGESTING  ANY
ADDITIONAL FRONTOGENETIC OR INSTABILITY FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OCCURS MOSTLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE 09.00Z ECMWF
CAME BACK SHOWING THIS FORCING OCCURRING FARTHER WEST...ENCOMPASSING
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN PRECIPITATION. THUS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION NEED TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW WESTERN TROUGH. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
WHEN THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY IMPACTS THE REGION...THEREFORE...HAVE
FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR RIGHT NOW THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON
THE NORTH/COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GREATER
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 09.00Z GFS REALLY
DEEPENS THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT THIS
SOLUTION IS VERY HARD TO TRUST GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
703 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY
POTENTIAL ISSUES FOR AVIATION INTERESTS ARE WIND SPEEDS
TODAY...COULD BE A BIT GUSTY...AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY VALLEY
STRATUS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR KLSE. FEEL WINDS WILL STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE MIXING TO PREVENT THE VALLEY FROM FILLING UP
WITH FOG/STRATUS...BUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHES OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...MW









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 225 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
TODAY.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND STRENGTHENING
RIDGING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAS BEEN BRINGING A VARIETY OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO PLENTIFUL DRY
AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AS EVIDENCED ON 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM DDC TO OAX AND MPX...THE SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN ONLY
ABLE TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS. OF SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANCE
IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA PER SURFACE
ANALYSIS...35-50 KT SOUTHWEST 850MB WINDS WERE PRESENT FROM WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SOME OF
THIS BREEZE EXTENDS DOWN THE SURFACE...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER...FEATURING AN UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
LAS VEGAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM
STRENGTHENS FURTHER TO HELP BALANCE THE DEEPER WESTERN TROUGH...
RESULTING IN A BLOCKED UP PATTERN. THUS...THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA GOES NOWHERE AND THE FORECAST
AREA STAYS IN DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAGNITUDE...A MEASURE OF HOW TIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS...MODELS PROG TO BE 40-50 PERCENT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. SO
ALTHOUGH MIXING AND MAINTAINING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
SUGGESTS BREEZY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...EXPECT WINDS TO NOT BE AS GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. 925MB
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST ABOUT 2C COOLER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM 14-16C VERSUS THE 17-20C OBSERVED FROM 00Z
SOUNDINGS. IT APPEARS THE REASON FOR THE COOLER CONDITIONS IS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE...HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE LOOKS TO PERSIST
TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS IN WISCONSIN STAND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF DECOUPLING AND
DROPPING CLOSER TO THE DRIER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS FRIDAY AND POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...
MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH...AND IN PARTICULAR THE UPPER LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS AT
12Z THURSDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL
GET EJECTED OUT AND SHUNTED NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY.
FROM THERE INDICATIONS ARE THAT PHASING OCCURS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MANITOBA
COME SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ON SUNDAY WHILE NEW TROUGHING
RELOADS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THERE ARE PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENTS
AMONGST THE MODEL HANDLING OF THIS NEW WESTERN TROUGH...PRIMARILY
ITS PROGRESSION EAST WHERE THE 09.00Z GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE
09.00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF AND 09.00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.

DETAILS...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE BLOCKED UP
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. WINDS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS WELL...IN RESPONSE TO
DYNAMICAL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT CAUSING
PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER THE PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOUT 1C FROM
TODAY...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY. MORE WIND AT
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE...SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE A
WARMER NIGHT AS WELL.

FRIDAY REMAINS A DAY TO FOCUS ON WINDS. AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOWS LIFT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FURTHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
GRADIENT IS ON PAR WITH THAT SEEN YESTERDAY...EXCEPT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA SEES THE STRONGER GRADIENT VERSUS JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THUS A WINDY DAY IS LIKELY EVERYWHERE...
ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. MIXING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
COULD BE REACHED IN THOSE LOCATIONS...SUCH AS DODGE CENTER AND
ROCHESTER MN. THE WINDS ALSO HELP DRIVE UP 925MB TEMPS TO
16-18C...SUPPORTING HIGHS AS MUCH AS THE MID TO UPPER 70S DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOCUS SWITCHES TO PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS
HEADING UP INTO MANITOBA HELPS TO DRAW HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 1-1.2
INCHES BY 00Z SATURDAY VERSUS THE 0.3-0.6 INCHES PRIOR TO THEN.
THOSE VALUES ARE ACTUALLY 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE QUESTION IS
IF FORCING EXISTS TO ACT ON THE MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS UNDESIRABLE...KEEPING THE DPVA FORCING
FROM IT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A SMALL PORTION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MAY BRUSH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...BUT THIS IS A LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY NIGHT MAY STAND TO HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN...IF THE 09.00Z CANADIAN MODEL FORECAST
IS CORRECT. THE MODEL BRINGS UP A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN INDICATED
BY ALL OTHER MODELS THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO IOWA BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TIGHTEN UP THE FRONTOGENESIS AROUND A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...
LEADING TO A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...THE 09.00Z GFS/NAM POINT TO A DRY OR MOSTLY DRY
SCENARIO. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED 20 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE TO CHANGE TO A DRY
FORECAST. SATURDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR...WITH THE 09.00Z
GFS/CANADIAN AND 08.12Z ECMWF TRENDING DRIER...SUGGESTING  ANY
ADDITIONAL FRONTOGENETIC OR INSTABILITY FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OCCURS MOSTLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE 09.00Z ECMWF
CAME BACK SHOWING THIS FORCING OCCURRING FARTHER WEST...ENCOMPASSING
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN PRECIPITATION. THUS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION NEED TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW WESTERN TROUGH. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
WHEN THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY IMPACTS THE REGION...THEREFORE...HAVE
FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR RIGHT NOW THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON
THE NORTH/COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GREATER
CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE 09.00Z GFS REALLY
DEEPENS THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT THIS
SOLUTION IS VERY HARD TO TRUST GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013

THE MAIN CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED TO AROUND 10-12KTS.
LOCAL WIND PROFILERS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE
40-50KT RANGE WHILE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL
LAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AT RST WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 22KTS OR SO.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WITH JUST HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 1022 PM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013

THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE
EAST PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS. MEANWHILE...
SOME OF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE WEST PART OF
THE CWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS 40 MPH THROUGH SUNSET IN
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR NORTH PART OF THE CWA WILL MOVE MORE
RAPIDLY SOUTH AND ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOISTEN...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM OVER MAINLY THE NORTH HALF
OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 16Z WEDNESDAY.

THE REST OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STORM WAS STARTING TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WAS
DIGGING QUICKLY SOUTH. THAT DIGGING CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT
06Z THURSDAY. THE STORM IS TEN EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
300 MB JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW. BY 00Z FRIDAY...THE FEATURE
WILL START TO FILL AND BE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER
THE CWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR A SLOWER NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE STORM. AT THE SURFACE
A BROAD LOW WILL BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CENTERED OVER UTAH.
THE LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN QUICKLY AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS STORM TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE STORM
OF LAST WEEK...BUT THE AIR MASS ORIGIN IS MORE MARITIME AND WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER THE CWA.

SOME SHOWERS WILL BE OVER AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN AS THE STORM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS WILL LIKEWISE
SPREAD EAST. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
9000 FEET THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVEL AT 7500 TO
8000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE. THE BEST
AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THURS NIGHT AND
FRI SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA.  CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z
FRI WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  THINKING
THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BY
LATE THURS NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AT 30 KTS.  WOULD
ALSO WATCH THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN 06-15Z FRI AS THE GFS
SHOWS 700MB WEST WINDS AT 55 KTS.  IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
EXTENDED STRONG WIND EVENT SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING SO
QUICKLY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASING BY EARLY FRI AFTN.
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ON THURS NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS WILL FALL AS
RAIN WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 8C.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA ON FRI NIGHT
MAINTAINING THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.  THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
WAVE AND PRODUCES MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COLORADO.  THINK THAT THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT DID
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST.  THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
SEASONAL TEMPS WITH WEAK WINDS AS A WEAK TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN COLDER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013

CONFIDENCE LOWERING NOW ON IFR CHANCES IN THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT.
FIRST...11-3.9U SATALLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NO SIGNS OF LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AS OF 04Z. LATEST SREF AND HRRR FORECASTS ALSO DO NOT
SHOW THIS STRATUS DEVELOPING EITHER...SO DECIDED TO PULL THE LOW
CEILINGS OUT OF THE PANHANDLE TAFS FOR 06Z. SHOULD START SEEING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST. CHANCES IMPROVE
FOR LOW CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHEAST UPSLOPING WINDS AND
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
THE CWA. THE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA WILL
CHANGE TO COOLER AND MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING WEDNESDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH SUNSET.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
WILL USHER IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHEAST WIND.

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE
CWA DURING THAT TIME. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 7500 FEET
WITH THIS STORM...SO EVEN THOUGH THE EXPECTED PATH IS SIMILAR TO
THE STORM OF LAST WEEK...IT IS WARMER AND SO RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
COMMON IN MOST AREAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE STORM MOVES EAST OF THE
CWA.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEILAND
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 313 AM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTN. SOME
MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN LOW AND STILL PRODUCING RAIN
ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE DECENT
SUBSIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE AREA AND COMBINING WITH A
DECENT LOW LVL GRADIENT WHICH IS STARTING TO ENHANCE WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS. A FEW GUSTS TO 80 MPH HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE PAST
HOUR IN THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS OF BOULDER AND NRN JEFFERSON
COUNTIES. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW HIGH WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE THRU
ABOUT 15Z AND THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WY-CO-NE BORDER AS WELL THRU THE
DAY HOWEVER WILL KEEP GUSTS JUST BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA.  IN THE
MTNS MOST OF THE SNOW IS OCCURRING NORTH OF I-70. CROSS-SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS HOWEVER MOISTURE DEPTH IS
ONLY ABOUT 200 MB WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES THRU MIDDAY.

FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT A WK UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WIND MAX AT 250 MB. IN ADDITION A COOL FNT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO THIS EVENING. THUS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW. OVER
NERN CO MAY SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS BY LATE AFTN THRU THE EVENING
HOURS AS WELL. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHC LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
A DENVER TO AKRON LINE. AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS NERN CO.


.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DIGS
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY KEEPING A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THIS WEEKEND.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH
USHERS IN WARMER AIR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE BROAD TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO
WYOMING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO.
MODELS SHOWING THE DRY SLOT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW WILL FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND PULL COOLER AIR
INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH. THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES
ELONGATED. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN
ARIZONA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO SOMETIME TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL. THERE IS AT LEAST ONE SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...THOUGH TIMING IS DIFFERENT AMONG THE MODELS. FOR POPS...WILL
GO WITH 10-20 POPS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...ONCE AGAIN NOT REAL CONFIDENT ABOUT WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. RAP TRIES TO SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WNW BY SUNRISE WHILE
THE HRRR KEEPS THEM SSW THRU 15Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM MORE SSW
THRU 15Z. AFTER 15Z BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW WINDS BECOMING E OR
NE AS A LONGMENT ANTICYLONE DEVELOPS DUE TO NWLY WINDS COMING OFF
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE SO WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION FM 15Z-18Z. BY
EARLY AFTN WINDS LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE BREAKS DOWN AS WINDS BECOME
MORE NNW. FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE AFTER
SUNSET. BY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF
-SHRA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WITH CEILINGS
BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 8000 FT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ035-036-038-
039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...RPK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 248 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO ADJUST
OVERNIGHT MINS DOWN JUST A BIT WITH A COUPLE OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER
SPOTS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE 50S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME PATCHY
FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE CHICAGO
URBAN HEAT ISLAND. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW EXTENSIVE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE IN 4000-5000 FT STRATUS BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH
HAD BEEN STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS HAS WEAKENED...WITH PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND WESTERN MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW LIFTING INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A BIT...AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE LOWER 50S...AND WITH
OTHERWISE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS) HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS JUST A BIT ESPECIALLY IN
A FEW OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

RAP/WRF/GFS TIME/HEIGHT DEPICTIONS AND SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP IN THE 4000-5000 FT LAYER LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS OF THE 295-300 K SURFACES INDICATE
NEUTRAL OR A SLIGHT DOWNGLIDE AT LEAST JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER...WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH AT 90-100 MB.
RAN SOME BACKWARDS HYSPLIT TRAJECTORY FORECASTS FOR THESE LEVELS
WHICH INDICATE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IL SOURCE REGION FOR PARCELS OVER
THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE THERE WAS SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT. GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A
LITTLE LOWER CLOUD COVER DOWNSTATE AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
EXPANSION TO THE NORTH...THOUGH AM A BIT SUSPECT OF THE SOLID
BKN/OVC INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS LEADS TO QUESTIONS
ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE TOO...AS MORE CLOUD COVER WOULD
YIELD LESS FOG. NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON FOG CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WI...
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF AN ISSUE IN THE WFO LOT CWA. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AWAY FROM CHICAGO AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL
MONITOR FURTHER FOR SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AERIAL DEVELOPMENT.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF PRECIP CHANCES WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT MOISTURE IN 900-800 MB
LAYER...DENOTED BY BETTER CU COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IL...WILL GRADUALLY STREAM NORTHWARD AND LIKELY RESULT
IN A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE BEEN SPURRED BY DEEP UPPER LOW
NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST TODAY. TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTH/NORTHEAST CAUSING MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR REGION TO AMPLIFY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN CWA WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND H9 TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT GOING
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...DESPITE 850 MB LEVEL
COOLING SLIGHTLY. MILDER START TO THE DAY WILL LIKELY HELP AS WELL.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE CLOUD COVER AS GUIDANCE STILL CONSISTENT IN
FAIRLY MOIST 900-800 MB LAYER...BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS TO MAINLY
TRANSITION TO SCT/BKN CU WHICH WILL DISSIPATE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO PRECLUDE LOWERING HIGHS.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ALL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH APPROACH OF
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST WILL
RESULT IN LOWS 55-60...EXCEPT MID 60S DOWNTOWN. DID NOT GO AS QUICK
IN GRIDS AS 12Z NAM RUN...BUT INSTEAD A BLEND WITH THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER GFS. FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED TO THE
NORTH...THROWING INTO DOUBT SHRA COVERAGE...BUT DECENT NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW FOR A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. HAVE
ADDED IN LOW END CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS NW HALF OF CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND THEN MAINTAINED HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING DAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WITH QUICKER TIMING...AS FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO
CLEAR CWA BY EARLY EVENING. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN...INSTABILITY IS ONLY MEAGER AT BEST...SO WILL LIMIT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO AFTERNOON HRS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO LOWER 70S
NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF OVERCAST...WHICH MAY
STILL BE TOO GENEROUS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS...WITH DEW POINTS
PLUNGING INTO UPPER 30S FROM THE WEST...WILL RUSH IN BEHIND FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM NORTHWEST. THEREFORE SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CLEAR. H8 TEMPS COOL TO MID SINGLE DIGITS BY
DAYBREAK...SO FAVORED COOL SPOTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY
DROP TO 40 OR EVEN UPPER 30S. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULDNT BE
MAJOR HINDRANCE TO RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY FOR THE EVENTS IN CHICAGO...JUST COOLER THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL...ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND LOWER 60S
ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

COOL AND QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER FAIRLY
DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACHING. TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW SHOWN ON 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEST OF CWA WILL PUT
US IN WARM SECTOR...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE...IN 60S...MAY BE TOO COOL IF CLOUD
COVER IS NOT TOO PROHIBITIVE...AS THERMAL PROFILES FROM GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN LOW TEENS AT 850MB AND MID TEENS AT 925 MB. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN
SET-UP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME THUNDER
IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND THEN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THAT
IS...ASSUMING LOW TRACKS AS PROGGED...WHICH IS NONETHELESS LIKELY TO
CHANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL SPAWN SURFACE LOW NOT
REACHING WEST COAST AND RAOB NETWORK UNTIL SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOW...SO FURTHER CHANGES ARE TO BE EXPECTED.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...AS LATEST ECMWF LIFTS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM INTO AREA FROM SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND GFS INDICATES POTENTIAL PRECIP WOULD
COME FROM SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM. WHICHEVER SCENARIO COMES CLOSER TO PASS...IT WILL FINALLY BE
DECIDELY MORE FALL LIKE...WITH H8 TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 0C RESULTING IN HIGHS IN 50S TO PERHAPS LOW 60S WEDS AND
THURS.

RC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY BROKEN CIGS 4000-5000 FT DEVELOPING
  OVERNIGHT.

* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE
  TEENS TURNING SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALLOWING SOME SITES TO GO CALM. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL AND
MAY START TO SEE SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME DEVELOPING CLOUDS IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTHWARD TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EXPECT THIS COVERAGE TO INCREASE. RFD
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING BKN COVERAGE THOUGH THE
REMAINING SITES WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR PERIODIC BKN SKIES LATER
TONIGHT. SHOULD THESE CLOUDS EXPAND BEFORE ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS
DEVELOP THEN VSBY WILL LIKELY STAY UP. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS
MORNING BUT THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MIXING DEVELOPS. EXPECT A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS...AND POSSIBLY 20
KT AT RFD...FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH MIDDAY BUT THE LAKE WILL TRY
AND TURN WINDS MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ORD/MDW/GYY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FOR THE EVENING WITH SPEEDS HOLDING NEAR 10 KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME 4000-5000 FT CLOUDS DEVELOPING...LOW
  CONFIDENCE IN BKN OR GREATER COVERAGE DEVELOPING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
  CHANGES.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. COLD FRONT/WIND
  SHIFT TO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
246 AM CDT

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACHING WESTERN HUDSON BAY
BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LARGE ARE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THAT REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE BEING PUSHED EASTWARD INTO MONDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL TREND
MORE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES EASTWARD LEADING TO FURTHER INCREASES IN WIND SPEED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE WITH SPEEDS PUSHING 30 KT FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AN INVERSION WILL LIMIT HIGHER GUSTS THOUGH THERE WILL BE
SPEEDS AROUND 35 KT JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY WEST AND NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS EASING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY ALLOWING SPEEDS
TO DROP OFF. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD MONDAY KEEPING WINDS
LIGHT BUT BRINGING THEM AROUND TO THE EAST. A SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST IS
EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS. THIS LOW LOOKS TO CROSS THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH.

MDB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1251 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
923 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO ADJUST
OVERNIGHT MINS DOWN JUST A BIT WITH A COUPLE OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER
SPOTS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE 50S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF SOME PATCHY
FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE CHICAGO
URBAN HEAT ISLAND. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW EXTENSIVE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE IN 4000-5000 FT STRATUS BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH
HAD BEEN STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS HAS WEAKENED...WITH PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND WESTERN MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW LIFTING INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED A BIT...AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE LOWER 50S...AND WITH
OTHERWISE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS) HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS JUST A BIT ESPECIALLY IN
A FEW OF OUR TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

RAP/WRF/GFS TIME/HEIGHT DEPICTIONS AND SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP IN THE 4000-5000 FT LAYER LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS OF THE 295-300 K SURFACES INDICATE
NEUTRAL OR A SLIGHT DOWNGLIDE AT LEAST JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER...WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH AT 90-100 MB.
RAN SOME BACKWARDS HYSPLIT TRAJECTORY FORECASTS FOR THESE LEVELS
WHICH INDICATE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IL SOURCE REGION FOR PARCELS OVER
THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE THERE WAS SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT. GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A
LITTLE LOWER CLOUD COVER DOWNSTATE AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
EXPANSION TO THE NORTH...THOUGH AM A BIT SUSPECT OF THE SOLID
BKN/OVC INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS LEADS TO QUESTIONS
ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE TOO...AS MORE CLOUD COVER WOULD
YIELD LESS FOG. NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS HRRR SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON FOG CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WI...
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF AN ISSUE IN THE WFO LOT CWA. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AWAY FROM CHICAGO AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL
MONITOR FURTHER FOR SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AERIAL DEVELOPMENT.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
259 PM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF PRECIP CHANCES WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT MOISTURE IN 900-800 MB
LAYER...DENOTED BY BETTER CU COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IL...WILL GRADUALLY STREAM NORTHWARD AND LIKELY RESULT
IN A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE BEEN SPURRED BY DEEP UPPER LOW
NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST TODAY. TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTH/NORTHEAST CAUSING MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR REGION TO AMPLIFY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN CWA WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND H9 TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT GOING
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...DESPITE 850 MB LEVEL
COOLING SLIGHTLY. MILDER START TO THE DAY WILL LIKELY HELP AS WELL.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE CLOUD COVER AS GUIDANCE STILL CONSISTENT IN
FAIRLY MOIST 900-800 MB LAYER...BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS TO MAINLY
TRANSITION TO SCT/BKN CU WHICH WILL DISSIPATE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO PRECLUDE LOWERING HIGHS.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ALL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH APPROACH OF
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST WILL
RESULT IN LOWS 55-60...EXCEPT MID 60S DOWNTOWN. DID NOT GO AS QUICK
IN GRIDS AS 12Z NAM RUN...BUT INSTEAD A BLEND WITH THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER GFS. FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED TO THE
NORTH...THROWING INTO DOUBT SHRA COVERAGE...BUT DECENT NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW FOR A BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. HAVE
ADDED IN LOW END CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS NW HALF OF CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND THEN MAINTAINED HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING DAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WITH QUICKER TIMING...AS FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO
CLEAR CWA BY EARLY EVENING. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN...INSTABILITY IS ONLY MEAGER AT BEST...SO WILL LIMIT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO AFTERNOON HRS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO LOWER 70S
NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF OVERCAST...WHICH MAY
STILL BE TOO GENEROUS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS...WITH DEW POINTS
PLUNGING INTO UPPER 30S FROM THE WEST...WILL RUSH IN BEHIND FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM NORTHWEST. THEREFORE SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CLEAR. H8 TEMPS COOL TO MID SINGLE DIGITS BY
DAYBREAK...SO FAVORED COOL SPOTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL IL MAY
DROP TO 40 OR EVEN UPPER 30S. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULDNT BE
MAJOR HINDRANCE TO RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY FOR THE EVENTS IN CHICAGO...JUST COOLER THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL...ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND LOWER 60S
ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

COOL AND QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER FAIRLY
DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACHING. TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW SHOWN ON 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEST OF CWA WILL PUT
US IN WARM SECTOR...WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE...IN 60S...MAY BE TOO COOL IF CLOUD
COVER IS NOT TOO PROHIBITIVE...AS THERMAL PROFILES FROM GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN LOW TEENS AT 850MB AND MID TEENS AT 925 MB. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN
SET-UP...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME THUNDER
IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND THEN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THAT
IS...ASSUMING LOW TRACKS AS PROGGED...WHICH IS NONETHELESS LIKELY TO
CHANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL SPAWN SURFACE LOW NOT
REACHING WEST COAST AND RAOB NETWORK UNTIL SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ALSO
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOW...SO FURTHER CHANGES ARE TO BE EXPECTED.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...AS LATEST ECMWF LIFTS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM INTO AREA FROM SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND GFS INDICATES POTENTIAL PRECIP WOULD
COME FROM SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NOAM. WHICHEVER SCENARIO COMES CLOSER TO PASS...IT WILL FINALLY BE
DECIDELY MORE FALL LIKE...WITH H8 TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 0C RESULTING IN HIGHS IN 50S TO PERHAPS LOW 60S WEDS AND
THURS.

RC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY BROKEN CIGS 4000-5000 FT DEVELOPING
  OVERNIGHT.

* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE
  TEENS TURNING SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALLOWING SOME SITES TO GO CALM. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL AND
MAY START TO SEE SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME DEVELOPING CLOUDS IN THE
4000-5000 FT RANGE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTHWARD TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EXPECT THIS COVERAGE TO INCREASE. RFD
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING BKN COVERAGE THOUGH THE
REMAINING SITES WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR PERIODIC BKN SKIES LATER
TONIGHT. SHOULD THESE CLOUDS EXPAND BEFORE ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS
DEVELOP THEN VSBY WILL LIKELY STAY UP. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS
MORNING BUT THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MIXING DEVELOPS. EXPECT A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS...AND POSSIBLY 20
KT AT RFD...FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH MIDDAY BUT THE LAKE WILL TRY
AND TURN WINDS MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT ORD/MDW/GYY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FOR THE EVENING WITH SPEEDS HOLDING NEAR 10 KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MDB


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME 4000-5000 FT CLOUDS DEVELOPING...LOW
  CONFIDENCE IN BKN OR GREATER COVERAGE DEVELOPING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
  CHANGES.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA. COLD FRONT/WIND
  SHIFT TO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
106 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUES NORTH
TO HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE LAKE
THIS WEEKEND AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE SYSTEM IS WEAK AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY IN RESULTING
IN QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER STRONG
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY AND TRACK...BUT
GROWING CONSENSUS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING WAVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 257 AM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS LINE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT TO
BREEZY. AM EXPECTING THIS LINE TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
AROUND MIDNIGHT NORTHERN YUMA AND POSSIBLE NORTHERN DUNDY COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE ADDITION RAINFALL AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER THAT AREA...BRINGING THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY NORTH OF DENVER OVER
THOSE COUNTIES

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG TROUGH
WITH CLOSED CENTER JUST WEST OF FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. 120-125KT
H3 JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH NOSE OF JET
STREAK BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT HAS LINGERED OVER NW KS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH LATEST OBS TRENDS INDICATING THE FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
NORTH OF KGLD TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z WITH BEST
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT
BEST FORCING OVER OUR CWA WILL BE THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z-03Z.

FORECAST INITIATION MAY BE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CINH AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
LIMITING CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VIRGA
APPARENT ON RADAR...HOWEVER MAIN ACTIVITY LIKELY WONT GET GOING
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON TD WITH LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS LIKELY ORIGINATING OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE TD VALUES
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH CAPE WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER THE CWA. AT THIS POINT RAP SOLUTION OF 500-600
J/KG ML CAPE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE...THOUGH I WOULDNT RULE
OUT EASTERN LOCATIONS GETTING HIGHER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 00Z.
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO BORDER WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FORCING. BETTER
COVERAGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM
UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND 00Z FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INTO
A LINE OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTER BY THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY MOVING
EAST...WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEER
PROFILES IN PLACE. I STILL EXPECT WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH IF WE CAN GET AN ORGANIZED/DISCREET CELL THEN
SEVERE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

REGARDING WINDS...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WEST AND WITH LEE TROUGH STILL DEEPENING I EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH CRITERIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GFS/MAV GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS NEAR WARNING CONDITIONS...WHICH IS
PROBABLY TOO WINDY CONSIDERING EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS. UNLESS WE SEE
A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MIX WINDS FROM ABOUT 700-750MB I THINK WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 03Z THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND UPPER LOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE INITIAL FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE LOCATED JUST
WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE IS
CHARACTERIZED BY LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. THE
ANTECEDENT PATTERN DID NOT RESULT IN A FRONTAL INTRUSION DEEP INTO
THE SOUTH AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
DEPARTING. AS A RESULT LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BRING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO PWAT VALUES ABOVE CLIMO OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. ON
MONDAY MORNING...GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED TO THE EAST OF
THE ECMWF WITH SURFACE LOW POSITION. USING A BLEND...A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCING AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WAS JUSTIFICATION
FOR INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH MUCH COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BEHIND IT OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. ONE CONCERN WITH
THE ABOVE IS THE CONTINUED SLOWING TREND WHICH COULD RESULT IN
GREATER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FURTHER WEST ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED.

FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO EMERGE IN MODELS WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES...ALBEIT TO A LESSER DEGREE THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THE GFS/ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS
THE ECMWF WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT RELATIVELY DRY
COLUMN SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW POPS OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. WINDS TONIGHT ARE A BIT
TRICKY DUE TO SUBTLETIES IN THE PRESSURE FIELD CAUSING GUSTY WINDS AT ONLY
KITR. IN GENERAL THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/NEAR
EARLY MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

FRIDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN CLOCKWISE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...JTL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 352 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

Potent upper system becoming stacked in recent hours over western
Nebraska with 3-hour pressure falls of near 6 mb near it as it
continues to move north-northeast. Water vapor imagery and 0Z upper
air data show a secondary upper wave over southern California that
reached western Arizona by 08Z. Band of convection over western and
central portions of Kansas continues to diminish in coverage and
intensity as forcing and instability wane.

Details of the today and tonight still not certain with this
wrapped-up system continuing to impact eastern Kansas through these
periods. The weakening trend in the convection should persist
through the remaining overnight hours and some precip could linger
just past dawn, but the bulk of the daytime should be dry with weak
forcing and drier air slowly working its way northeast through the
Central Plains behind the Pacific cold front. Just how far east the
front makes it by late afternoon is one challenge, as it may remain
over east central Kansas. Convergence along it is rather modest
though little inhibition will be left based on model soundings.
Convection could hold off until the evening hours when forcing
increases from the Southwest upper wave`s arrival as well as the
secondary cold front, and this may well be east of the CWA. Have
kept PoPs in the chance range in the far southeast, but trends in
the timing of the above features will need to be monitored. CAPE
around 1000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50 kt just east of the
Pacific front gives rise to at least some severe weather potential
in fast-moving storms. The secondary fronts` passage should end
precip by the early morning hours. Winds should be gusty through
much of the day in good mixing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

Saturday through Sunday will be a dry period in the wake of the
upper trough moving off into the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure
will keep an east to northeast wind on Saturday then becoming
southeast by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be near normal with
highs in the lower 70s and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

An upper level trough will move into the Rockies Sunday night and
Monday with a stronger lobe of energy moving out in to the plains.
Moisture transport increases Sunday night as the low level jet
cranks up, initially focused into the High Plains then into central
Kansas after midnight. Models are in agreement with sweeping a cold
front through eastern Kansas Monday night, with the GFS a little
faster than the ECMWF. ML CAPE of 500 to 1000 J/kg is forecast ahead
of the boundary over eastern Kansas. 0-6 KM shear around 45 kts is
forecast. Could see a few strong to severe storms especially through
early evening. Strong winds and hail will be the main hazards.
Behind the front temperatures cool off for Tuesday with highs
ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Timing differences show up Wednesday and Thursday between the GFS
and the ECMWF with the GFS being more progressive. The GEFS mean is
slower and somewhat similar to the ECMWF. Lower confidence at the
end of the period due to model uncertainty. Thus will lean toward a
slower progression of energy moving out into the plains similar to
the ECMWF. Only some low pops are expected Wednesday night with a
dry forecast for Thursday. Temperatures both days will be cooler
with highs only in the 50s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

Recent satellite image shows band of VFR clouds associated with a
line of thunderstorms tracking eastward into the region. Latest
guidance indicates showers should dissipate before reaching
KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with residual moisture and clouds remaining.
Sounding profilers from the RAP and NAM are consistent in MVFR
cigs developing aft 10Z at KTOP/KFOE. Strong southerly winds
through the afternoon gradually mix cigs to VFR near 20Z.
Increasing southerly winds overnight above 10 kts will peak aoa 15
kts aft 14z at sites with gusts up to 28 kts possible. As the cold
front approaches winds begin to veer to southwest and west falling
blo 10 kts aft 00z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1150 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS LINE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT TO
BREEZY. AM EXPECTING THIS LINE TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
AROUND MIDNIGHT NORTHERN YUMA AND POSSIBLE NORTHERN DUNDY COUNTY MAY
RECEIVE ADDITION RAINFALL AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER THAT AREA...BRINGING THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY NORTH OF DENVER OVER
THOSE COUNTIES

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG TROUGH
WITH CLOSED CENTER JUST WEST OF FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. 120-125KT
H3 JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH NOSE OF JET
STREAK BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT HAS LINGERED OVER NW KS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH LATEST OBS TRENDS INDICATING THE FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED
NORTH OF KGLD TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z WITH BEST
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT
BEST FORCING OVER OUR CWA WILL BE THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z-03Z.

FORECAST INITIATION MAY BE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH CINH AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
LIMITING CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VIRGA
APPARENT ON RADAR...HOWEVER MAIN ACTIVITY LIKELY WONT GET GOING
UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON TD WITH LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS LIKELY ORIGINATING OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE TD VALUES
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH CAPE WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER THE CWA. AT THIS POINT RAP SOLUTION OF 500-600
J/KG ML CAPE SEEMS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE...THOUGH I WOULDNT RULE
OUT EASTERN LOCATIONS GETTING HIGHER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER 00Z.
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG KS/CO BORDER WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FORCING. BETTER
COVERAGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FROM
UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND 00Z FROM THE
WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INTO
A LINE OR MULTI-CELL CLUSTER BY THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY MOVING
EAST...WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEER
PROFILES IN PLACE. I STILL EXPECT WIND TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH IF WE CAN GET AN ORGANIZED/DISCREET CELL THEN
SEVERE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.

REGARDING WINDS...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WEST AND WITH LEE TROUGH STILL DEEPENING I EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA TO REACH CRITERIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GFS/MAV GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS NEAR WARNING CONDITIONS...WHICH IS
PROBABLY TOO WINDY CONSIDERING EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS. UNLESS WE SEE
A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MIX WINDS FROM ABOUT 700-750MB I THINK WE
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 03Z THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND UPPER LOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR FRI
AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

A SECONDARY VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO FRIDAY
NIGHT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND MOISTURE LACKING. LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY AND
RAISED HIGHS AS MUCH AS ISC ALLOWED. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZES
IN THE GREAT BASIN...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT OUT
AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AND SUNDAY BUT INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
MAIN ENERGY APPROACHES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH MAY REQUIRE HIGHLIGHTS. MODELS IN
VERY POOR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM PAST MONDAY...THE
ECMWF MUCH SLOWER TO KICK IT OUT COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. WINDS TONIGHT ARE A BIT
TRICKY DUE TO SUBTLETIES IN THE PRESSURE FIELD CAUSING GUSTY WINDS AT ONLY
KITR. IN GENERAL THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/NEAR
EARLY MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

FRIDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN CLOCKWISE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 1142 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2013

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

Main focus for the start term period is on the large storm system
currently over the Rockies and what impacts it will have on the area
as it progresses northeastward toward the Northern Plains. The mid-level
low associated with this system dug southward along the Pacific
coastline, sinking all the way into southern California early this
morning before finally pivoting northeastward toward the Four
Corners region this afternoon. As of 20z, the surface low was
situated over eastern Colorado with a decent pressure gradient
setting up across much of the state of Kansas. As a result, breezy
southeasterly winds allowed for decent waa into the region with
afternoon temperatures peaking above the seasonal normals, into the
upper 70s/lower 80s.

Overnight, the mid-level low will quickly eject northeast through
Colorado and into South Dakota by Friday afternoon. With both the
surface and mid-level lows tracking north of the cwa, models show the
tight pressure gradient remaining in place over the area tonight and
through the day on Friday. As a result, expect winds to weaken only
a bit over eastern Kansas tonight with breezy winds persisting
across central Kansas. Another day of modest waa is expected on
Friday as southerly winds should be sustained at 10-15mph with gusts
possibly upwards of 25-30mph. Afternoon highs look to once again be
around 10F degrees above the seasonal normals, into the upper
70s/lower 80s. As this system progresses into the Northern Plains
during the afternoon, models show a decent dryline moving eastward
into central Kansas and stretching from south central to northeast
Kansas by early Friday evening. Models show dewpoint temperatures
across central Kansas dropping into the lower 40s behind this
dryline. This dry air, combined with the gusty southerly winds could
result in RH values dropping down into the mid 20 percent range.

Models continue to highlight the potential for a few stray showers
and isolated storms to develop Friday morning, but this potential
looks to be very low. While there should be some weak isentropic
lift present over the area in the morning, there will be very
little in the way of moisture to support this precipitation as the
current water vapor loop shows a weak mid-level ridge over the
Gulf of Mexico, limiting the amount of moisture that can be
advected northward into the area. Model soundings show any
isolated thunderstorms that are able to develop should be elevated
in nature. 12z model runs seem to be bringing the associated cold
front a bit faster into the region than in previous runs, having
it enter into north central Kansas by early to mid afternoon and
nearly bisecting the cwa by around 00z. However, expect any
precipitation that develops with this system to hold off until
late afternoon or early evening, so only have scattered slight
chance pops across the cwa during the day on Friday.

By Friday evening, that well-defined dry line should be oriented
roughly from Lawrence to Burlington, give or take 50 miles east or
west. There seems to be a good chance for thunderstorms to develop
along this dry line near or after 5 PM. There is a lot of wind
energy associated with this storm system and deep layer wind shear
will be strong. There should also be a narrow band of instability
along and immediately ahead of the dry line, probably on the order
of 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. All of these factors suggest a
chance for a couple of strong to severe storms to develop with the
primary uncertainty being whether or not updrafts in the low CAPE
high shear environment will have enough residence time in the
unstable airmass to become particularly strong. If strong storms
were to develop, localized damaging winds would seem to be the
main severe threat although hail would be possible if supercell
structures develop. The tornado potential is quite low at this
time owing to limited directional shear and uncertainty regarding
convective strength.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

The mid to long term forecast is active as a series of upper level
storm systems will move through the Plains states. The Friday
storm system and cold front will not have much southward
progression to it, and this will allow temperatures to remain
seasonal through the weekend with highs in the lower 70s and lows
in the 40s. All told, the weekend will be quiet and pleasant.

However, the limited southward progression of the front will allow
plenty of deep moisture to pool south of the front as another
storm system takes shape and upper level flow becomes
southwesterly. A strong short wave trough will move into the
Plains on Monday while surface low pressure develops in western
Kansas and the moist airmass surges northward. Models are in good
agreement regarding all of these features in both magnitude and
timing with recent model performance suggesting that the GFS and
ECMWF may be just a bit slow with frontal progression if anything.
All of these factors suggest that a broad weakly to moderately
unstable warm sector will develop into central and eastern Kansas
by late Monday as the storm system moves into the region. Wind
shear in the deep layers and low levels will be quite strong with
early indications of 50 kts of 0-6 shear and 200+ m2/s2 of low
level helicity. The main uncertainty regarding severe weather
potential late Monday is just how unstable the warm sector will
become as there could be fairly widespread cloud cover and
precipitation out ahead of the main system. If decent instability
can develop, it could lead to a round of severe weather across the
Plains in conjunction with the advancing dry line/cold front. Will
need to closely monitor this period as details become more evident.

Model agreement beyond Monday night is quite poor as GFS solutions
favor cold northerly flow aloft while the ECMWF keeps the upper
trough axis to the west with a continuous stream of disturbances
impacting the area. What can be said with some confidence for this
forecast is that temperatures will be below normal for Tuesday and
Wednesday...and probably into Thursday...but whether we stay dry
through the end of the week or see another shot of precip by late
Wednesday remains in question.

Barjenbruch

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

Recent satellite image shows band of VFR clouds associated with a
line of thunderstorms tracking eastward into the region. Latest
guidance indicates showers should dissipate before reaching
KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with residual moisture and clouds remaining.
Sounding profilers from the RAP and NAM are consistent in MVFR
cigs developing aft 10Z at KTOP/KFOE. Strong southerly winds
through the afternoon gradually mix cigs to VFR near 20Z.
Increasing southerly winds overnight above 10 kts will peak aoa 15
kts aft 14z at sites with gusts up to 28 kts possible. As the cold
front approaches winds begin to veer to southwest and west falling
blo 10 kts aft 00z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Bowen







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 356 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER MAINE. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NORFOLK IS
STALLED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1010MB SFC LOW STALLED ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY (AND SATURDAY). MOST
MODERATE RAIN HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE...WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OVER ST MARYS COUNTY. AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA (LESS RAIN FOR THE SWRN
ZONES ON THE WRAP AROUND OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH DRIZZLE IS STILL
POSSIBLE).

CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NRN COUNTIES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON AS
3-4 INCHES FELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE
CURRENT BREAK IN RAIN OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST DECIDED TO
DELAY. HRRR AND NAM/GFS HIGHLIGHT THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP TABS ON
RAIN AND RIVER TRENDS. FURTHERMORE...THE NAM PROGS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
BE MUCH MORE ELY (WITH GREATER UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT) OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE DIURNAL AGAIN TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SOCKED IN AND
DRIZZLE/RAIN...MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOW THAT THE LOW IS CLOSER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

SYSTEM BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED...ALLOWING MID/UPR LEVELS
TO DRY OUT. PRECIP RATES SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRIZZLE COME SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPR 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THIS IS A FAIRLY UNIQUE SYNOPTIC PATTERN - THE HIGH TO THE N WL
HOLD THE LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC CST SAT. THIS WL KEEP RGN UNDER
CONT CLDY SKIES W/ CHCS OF RA. RAFL SHOULD NOWHERE NEAR BE AS HVY AS
THU THO. HIGHS IN THE LM60S. LOWS SAT NGT IN 50S.

IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGH SHOULD PUSH S ON SUN...WHICH WOULD HV THE
PTNL TO BRING SOME SUNSHINE TO THE MID ATLC...BUT I`M SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL. GFS PORTAYS THIS AS A CAD PATTERN...SO WL MAINTAIN XTNSV
CLD CVR. IF IT RAINS QPF WL MOST LKLY BE LGT.

XTND MDLS INDICATE AN EROSION OF THE DEEP LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
OCCUR ERLY IN THE NEW WK...BUT THERE WON`T BE A MECHANISM LK A
STRONG FNT TO SCOUR OUT ALL THE MOISTURE. THERE`LL PRBLY STILL BE
A DECENT AMT OF CLD CVR...ESPECIALLY AFTR MID MNRG.

BOTH ECM AND GFS SHOW A SHORT WV EJECTING OUT OF A SWRN U.S. LONG
WV DURG THE MID PART OF NEXT WK...LKLY REACHING THE E CST NEXT
THU. THUS POPS ARE IN THE FCST THEN. FOR THE NEW WK HIGHS SHOULD GNRLY
BE 65-70. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE STALLED ALONG THE COAST AT THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH
TODAY. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR WITH SOME
LIFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. KCHO MAY
REMAIN MVFR AS IT IS IN THE WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE LOW. LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE PREVAILS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR
MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE INCL KMRB.

IN THE XTND...XTSV CLD CVR XPCTD TO RMN OVR THE MID ALTC RGN THIS
WKND...PSBLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. SOME IMPRVMNT IS XPCTD DURG THE
1ST PART OF THE NEW WK.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE HAS STALLED ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AND
WILL PERSIST ALL DAY. FLOW WILL REMAIN NNELY WITH THOUGH THE GUST
POTENTIAL HAS DROPPED TO 25 KT OR LESS. SCA UP FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC (WHICH WILL SEE UP TO 15 KT WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT.) SOME GUSTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A THUNDERSTORM IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE SRN MD WATERS...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE NORM TODAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY HAS BEEN XTND INTO SAT FOR ALL XCPT THE UPR
PTMC. MAJORITY OF THE WKND LOOKING CLDY W/ PDS OF RA - NOT THE
BEST WX FOR BOATING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WATER LEVELS ARE AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION ON
THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY SOUTH FROM ANNAPOLIS AND THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC. THE LESSER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.
AS OF NOW IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT ALL LEVELS WILL BE JUST BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND ANY
NECESSARY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE DELIVERED WITH AS MUCH
LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE PREFERRED HIGH TIDE
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ON THE MD WRN SHORE SOUTH FROM ANNAPOLIS AND
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC.

&&

.HYDRO...
RAINFALL AS OF 1AM IS AVAILABLE IN THE LATEST PNSLWX. AREAS WITH
OVER THREE INCHES OF RAIN FROM TODAY INCLUDE THE ERN WV
PANHANDLE...WEST-CENTRAL MD...AND ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE
(RAPPAHANNOCK AND MADISON COUNTIES). STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THESE
AREAS HAVE SEEN RAPID RISES...BUT AS OF 3 AM...NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 451 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT UPR RDG
DOMINATING THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF TROF OVER THE W. AT
THE SFC...HI PRES EXTENDS FM NEW ENGLAND TO LOWER MI...WITH SW FLOW
ARND THIS RDG DOMINATING UPR MI. IN CONCERT WITH VERY DRY LO-MID LVL
AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB/MPX RAOBS...THE CWA IS ENJOYING ANOTHER
VERY PLEASANT OCT DAY DESPITE A STREAM OF SCT-BKN CI/CS IN THE SW
FLOW ALF BTWN THE ERN RDG/WRN TROF. MORE CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER NW MN
AND ONTARIO ALONG A STNRY FNT EXTENDING NE FM LO PRES IN THE NRN
PLAINS...BUT THESE CLDS ARE MAKING NO PROGRESS TOWARD THE CWA AND
THE DOMINATING UPR RDG. THERE WAS SOME FOG OVER INTERIOR E AND
SCENTRAL UPR MI AS WELL AS WI/LOWER MI THIS MRNG...BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING HAS DSPTD THIS FOG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU FRI REMAIN TEMPS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG TNGT AS THE UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS ARE FCST TO
REMAIN DOMINANT.

TNGT...EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL AGAIN TNGT CLOSER TO FLATTER PRES
GRADIENT AND CORE OF DRY AIR WITH PWAT FCST AOB 0.50 INCH EXCEPT
OVER THE FAR W...WHERE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER S WIND FARTHER
FM HI CENTER WL ALSO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPANDED FCST AREA
OF FOG INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AWAY FM THE LK SUP SHORE WITH
UPSLOPE SSE LLVL FLOW OFF LK MI. SUSPECT THE FOG WL BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE IN THIS AREA.

FRI...AS POTENT SHRTWV LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE WRN TROF AND THE PRES
FALLS IN THE PLAINS...THE GRADIENT OVER UPR MI WL SHARPEN THRU THE
DAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY S WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL LIKELY BE AN INCRS IN HI CLDS AT LEAST OVER THE W UNDER THE
MORE DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALF CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV IN THE PLAINS...
MODELS SHOW THE LO/MID LYRS REMAINING DRY. WITH FCST H85 TEMPS TO
12C-14C...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S AGAIN AWAY FM THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK MI IN LLVL SE FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
IN RECENT DAYS...THE HIEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OVER THE W NEAR LK SUP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SO FAR...OCT IS OFF TO A VERY WARM START. THE AVG TEMP FOR THE FIRST
10 DAYS IS AN IMPRESSIVE 7.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HERE AT THE NWS
OFFICE LOCATION. IN ADDITION...THE TEMP HAS YET TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR LOWER. THE LATEST A TEMP AT OR BLO FREEZING HAS OCCURRED AT THIS
LOCATION IN AUTUMN IS OCT 14TH (1997)...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT
RECORD WILL BE EITHER TIED OR BROKEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE ON THE
HORIZON THAT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARM WEATHER AND SEND TEMPS
DOWN TO MORE TYPICAL MID OCT LEVELS. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY GRADUAL
PROCESS AS THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CURRENTLY DOMINATING
MUCH OF THE E HALF OF NAMERICA GIVE WAY TO A MEAN TROF OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDING N THRU ERN ALASKA. THIS CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING A WETTER PATTERN TO THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS TROF AXIS SETS UP TO THE W OF
HERE.

BEGINNING SAT...TRANSITION TOWARD COOLER WEATHER WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NE CO/WRN NEBRASKA LIFTS INTO
MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
UPPER MI SAT/SAT EVENING. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 60S AFTER ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR OCT STANDARDS. WITH TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE W AND NW OF HERE...THERE WILL
BE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA ACTIVITY ALONG FRONT
AS IT ARRIVES IN UPPER MI SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE SWINGING UNDERNEATH THE FIRST...MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS SAT
MORNING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SAT AFTN/EVENING. ALTHOUGH
BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS PASSES BY JUST TO THE NW OF
UPPER MI...COMBINATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO ERN UPPER MI SAT AFTN/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH TRENDS FROM
PREVIOUS FCST WHICH SHOWED INCREASING POPS WITH A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
OF SHRA BECOMING MORE LIKELY ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE
AREA SAT THRU EARLY SAT EVENING. AFTER THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SHRA
EARLY SAT OVER THE W...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THERE FOR SAT
AFTN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD 0C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
SAT NIGHT...NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT -SHRA GIVEN
WATER TEMPS MOSTLY AROUND 10C. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER SAT
NIGHT THRU MON UNDER STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF NEXT TROF SETTLING
OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. TEMPS SUN WILL BE CLOSER TO TYPICAL MID OCT READINGS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING...SUN
NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ENHANCED BY DRY AIR
MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 50-60PCT OF NORMAL). FAVORED THE LOW END OF
AVBL GUIDANCE. IN THIS CASE...BIAS CORRECTED GEM VALUES. EXPECT
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. SUN NIGHT
OFFERS THE BEST CHC SO FAR THIS SEASON OF TEMP FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER AT NWS MQT. IF SO...IT WOULD TIE 1997 FOR THE LATEST
OCCURRENCE OF A MIN TEMP AT OR BLO FREEZING. HIGH TEMPS MON SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO SUN.

TUE INTO THU...MEAN CNTRL NAMERICA TROF WILL BE DEVELOPING DOWSTREAM
OF RIDGE AMPLIFYING N INTO ERN ALASKA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY INITIALLY
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE KICKED OUT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
BUILDING RIDGE. FOR BEING 5 DAYS OUT...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST SOME
SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPORT A SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE WRN PLAINS MON TO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...A
STRONG AUTUMN STORM IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...A SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
HANDLES THE FCST NICELY FOR MON NIGHT THRU WED. WILL SPREAD HIGH CHC
POPS INTO THE WRN FCST AREA MON NIGHT WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT. MAY NEED TO CARRY HIGHER POPS ON INTO
WED AS WELL IF SLOWER TREND HOLDS. ONCE TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN...
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE
TUE/WED PERIOD. HEADING INTO THU...THERE IS MUCH MORE DISAGREEMENT
ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE CNTRL TROF AND LOCATION/TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
WITHIN IT. EVEN THOUGH THE TROF STRUCTURE IS DIFFERENT BTWN THE
ECMWF/GFS...THE MAJORITY OF THE LAST 4 ECMWF/GFS RUNS POINT TOWARD
SOME PCPN POTENTIAL AND SUGGEST CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE
THIS TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WL BE LATE TNGT INTO FRI MRNG AT SAW.
WITH A LGT UPSLOPE SSE WIND OFF LK MI UNDER LINGERING MID LVL DRY
AIR...OPTED TO INCLUDE A FCST OF FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THAT
LOCATION. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW AT CMX/IWD SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FOG AT THOSE SITES. A GUSTY S WIND WL DVLP LATER
IN THE TAF PERIOD ON FRI AFTN AT IWD WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
PUSH ACROSS EASTERN MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE A TROUGH SLIDING LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30KTS SATURDAY.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...LINGERING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SW GALES
TO 35KTS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OVERHEAD. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL PUSH
ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A TROUGH
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 441 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT UPR RDG
DOMINATING THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF TROF OVER THE W. AT
THE SFC...HI PRES EXTENDS FM NEW ENGLAND TO LOWER MI...WITH SW FLOW
ARND THIS RDG DOMINATING UPR MI. IN CONCERT WITH VERY DRY LO-MID LVL
AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB/MPX RAOBS...THE CWA IS ENJOYING ANOTHER
VERY PLEASANT OCT DAY DESPITE A STREAM OF SCT-BKN CI/CS IN THE SW
FLOW ALF BTWN THE ERN RDG/WRN TROF. MORE CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER NW MN
AND ONTARIO ALONG A STNRY FNT EXTENDING NE FM LO PRES IN THE NRN
PLAINS...BUT THESE CLDS ARE MAKING NO PROGRESS TOWARD THE CWA AND
THE DOMINATING UPR RDG. THERE WAS SOME FOG OVER INTERIOR E AND
SCENTRAL UPR MI AS WELL AS WI/LOWER MI THIS MRNG...BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING HAS DSPTD THIS FOG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU FRI REMAIN TEMPS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG TNGT AS THE UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS ARE FCST TO
REMAIN DOMINANT.

TNGT...EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL AGAIN TNGT CLOSER TO FLATTER PRES
GRADIENT AND CORE OF DRY AIR WITH PWAT FCST AOB 0.50 INCH EXCEPT
OVER THE FAR W...WHERE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER S WIND FARTHER
FM HI CENTER WL ALSO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPANDED FCST AREA
OF FOG INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AWAY FM THE LK SUP SHORE WITH
UPSLOPE SSE LLVL FLOW OFF LK MI. SUSPECT THE FOG WL BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE IN THIS AREA.

FRI...AS POTENT SHRTWV LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE WRN TROF AND THE PRES
FALLS IN THE PLAINS...THE GRADIENT OVER UPR MI WL SHARPEN THRU THE
DAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY S WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL LIKELY BE AN INCRS IN HI CLDS AT LEAST OVER THE W UNDER THE
MORE DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALF CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV IN THE PLAINS...
MODELS SHOW THE LO/MID LYRS REMAINING DRY. WITH FCST H85 TEMPS TO
12C-14C...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S AGAIN AWAY FM THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK MI IN LLVL SE FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
IN RECENT DAYS...THE HIEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OVER THE W NEAR LK SUP.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SO FAR...OCT IS OFF TO A VERY WARM START. THE AVG TEMP FOR THE FIRST
10 DAYS IS AN IMPRESSIVE 7.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HERE AT THE NWS
OFFICE LOCATION. IN ADDITION...THE TEMP HAS YET TO FALL TO FREEZING
OR LOWER. THE LATEST A TEMP AT OR BLO FREEZING HAS OCCURRED AT THIS
LOCATION IN AUTUMN IS OCT 14TH (1997)...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT
RECORD WILL BE EITHER TIED OR BROKEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE ON THE
HORIZON THAT WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARM WEATHER AND SEND TEMPS
DOWN TO MORE TYPICAL MID OCT LEVELS. IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY GRADUAL
PROCESS AS THE RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CURRENTLY DOMINATING
MUCH OF THE E HALF OF NAMERICA GIVE WAY TO A MEAN TROF OVER CNTRL
NAMERICA THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDING N THRU ERN ALASKA. THIS CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING A WETTER PATTERN TO THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS TROF AXIS SETS UP TO THE W OF
HERE.

BEGINNING SAT...TRANSITION TOWARD COOLER WEATHER WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NE CO/WRN NEBRASKA LIFTS INTO
MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
UPPER MI SAT/SAT EVENING. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 60S AFTER ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR OCT STANDARDS. WITH TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE W AND NW OF HERE...THERE WILL
BE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA ACTIVITY ALONG FRONT
AS IT ARRIVES IN UPPER MI SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE SWINGING UNDERNEATH THE FIRST...MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS SAT
MORNING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SAT AFTN/EVENING. ALTHOUGH
BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS PASSES BY JUST TO THE NW OF
UPPER MI...COMBINATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO ERN UPPER MI SAT AFTN/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH TRENDS FROM
PREVIOUS FCST WHICH SHOWED INCREASING POPS WITH A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
OF SHRA BECOMING MORE LIKELY ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE
AREA SAT THRU EARLY SAT EVENING. AFTER THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SHRA
EARLY SAT OVER THE W...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THERE FOR SAT
AFTN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD 0C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
SAT NIGHT...NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT -SHRA GIVEN
WATER TEMPS MOSTLY AROUND 10C. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER SAT
NIGHT THRU MON UNDER STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF NEXT TROF SETTLING
OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. TEMPS SUN WILL BE CLOSER TO TYPICAL MID OCT READINGS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVING...SUN
NIGHT WILL BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ENHANCED BY DRY AIR
MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER 50-60PCT OF NORMAL). FAVORED THE LOW END OF
AVBL GUIDANCE. IN THIS CASE...BIAS CORRECTED GEM VALUES. EXPECT
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. SUN NIGHT
OFFERS THE BEST CHC SO FAR THIS SEASON OF TEMP FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER AT NWS MQT. IF SO...IT WOULD TIE 1997 FOR THE LATEST
OCCURRENCE OF A MIN TEMP AT OR BLO FREEZING. HIGH TEMPS MON SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO SUN.

TUE INTO THU...MEAN CNTRL NAMERICA TROF WILL BE DEVELOPING DOWSTREAM
OF RIDGE AMPLIFYING N INTO ERN ALASKA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY INITIALLY
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE KICKED OUT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
BUILDING RIDGE. FOR BEING 5 DAYS OUT...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST SOME
SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPORT A SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE WRN PLAINS MON TO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF...A
STRONG AUTUMN STORM IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...A SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
HANDLES THE FCST NICELY FOR MON NIGHT THRU WED. WILL SPREAD HIGH CHC
POPS INTO THE WRN FCST AREA MON NIGHT WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT. MAY NEED TO CARRY HIGHER POPS ON INTO
WED AS WELL IF SLOWER TREND HOLDS. ONCE TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN...
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE
TUE/WED PERIOD. HEADING INTO THU...THERE IS MUCH MORE DISAGREEMENT
ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE CNTRL TROF AND LOCATION/TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
WITHIN IT. EVEN THOUGH THE TROF STRUCTURE IS DIFFERENT BTWN THE
ECMWF/GFS...THE MAJORITY OF THE LAST 4 ECMWF/GFS RUNS POINT TOWARD
SOME PCPN POTENTIAL AND SUGGEST CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE
THIS TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WL BE LATE TNGT INTO FRI MRNG AT SAW.
WITH A LGT UPSLOPE SSE WIND OFF LK MI UNDER LINGERING MID LVL DRY
AIR...OPTED TO INCLUDE A FCST OF FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THAT
LOCATION. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW AT CMX/IWD SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FOG AT THOSE SITES. A GUSTY S WIND WL DVLP LATER
IN THE TAF PERIOD ON FRI AFTN AT IWD WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

LIGHT E-SE WINDS WITH HI PRES DOMINATING WILL VEER TO THE S AND
INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS ON FRI INTO SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN THE HI CENTER TO THE E AND A DEVELOPING
LO IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU SCENTRAL CANADA INTO
HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SAT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND THIS FROPA
SAT NIGHT/SUN AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS HI PRES MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS ON MON INTO TUE WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE AS THE HI RETREATS INTO
CANADA AND A LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE MAY INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS BY TUE WITH FAVORABLE TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 335 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOG TRENDS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING THIS MORNING AS A FEW OBSERVATION
SITES HAVE EVEN IMPROVED ON VISIBILITIES. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
EXPANSION OF THE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOWER AND THE
EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA. RUC13 SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SUPPORTS A RIPENING NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT AS DAWN
APPROACHES. WILL TOE THE LINE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAS TO PATCHY
DENSE WORDING THE EVENING CREW INTRODUCED.

ANOTHER DAY OF PROTOTYPICAL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. LITTLE TO NO THERMAL
ADVECTIONS IN STATIC NEAR TERM REGIME SUPPORTS A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH FULL
INSOLATION WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO ON MOS CONSENSUS.

SURFACE TRAJECTORIES TONIGHT SUGGESTS SEMICH WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LIGHT EASTERLY DRAINAGE OFF OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. COMPROMISED ON LOWS...UPPER
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR THE DETROIT URBAN HEAT ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW NOW
ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS INTO
MANITOBA ON SATURDAY. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES HOWEVER SHOW A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE OVER WRN MONTANA. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
INTO MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN POTENTIAL
VORTICITY. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES SAT AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT AND BETTER MIXING DEPTHS MAY ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S. A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL HOWEVER
ADVECT SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SE MI FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SAT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S EAST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS IN TERMS OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FGEN IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GOOD AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE SAT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET MAX ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SAT NIGHT...WHICH CAUSES THE DEEP LAYER FGEN TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
FRONT TRAVERSES SE MI. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF JUST CHANCE TYPE POPS
SAT NIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SUN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUN.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO
CARVE OUT ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHIFT IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN TOWARD A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US MID LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSIVE. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...MID LEVEL WAVES SHOULD LIFT OUT OF
THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARD MID
WEEK. DESPITE BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE WEEK...E-NE LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SUSTAIN COOLER
CONDITIONS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.MARINE...

IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORNING FOG
MAY HAMPER NAVIGATION IN THE 6AM TO 10AM TIMEFRAME THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...WINDS AND WAVES WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH 10 TO 25 KNOT SOUTH WINDS. THE LONG FETCH ALONG
LAKE HURON WILL REALIZE WAVE POTENTIAL IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE IN
NORTHERN LAKE HURON...EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
LAKE. FOLLOWING THAT FEATURE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. NEARSHORE AREAS WILL
REMAIN PROTECTED FROM HIGH WINDS AND WAVES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WHERE A HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE ONLY
CONCERN BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WAS SEEN THURSDAY MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES AT SOME TAF SITES
DROPPING BELOW 1/2 MILE.  RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...IF ENOUGH SOUTHEAST FLOW CAN
BRING IN EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE THIS WOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.  MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 10Z TO 14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE IN FOG FROM 11-14Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1209 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT UPR RDG
DOMINATING THE E HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF TROF OVER THE W. AT
THE SFC...HI PRES EXTENDS FM NEW ENGLAND TO LOWER MI...WITH SW FLOW
ARND THIS RDG DOMINATING UPR MI. IN CONCERT WITH VERY DRY LO-MID LVL
AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB/MPX RAOBS...THE CWA IS ENJOYING ANOTHER
VERY PLEASANT OCT DAY DESPITE A STREAM OF SCT-BKN CI/CS IN THE SW
FLOW ALF BTWN THE ERN RDG/WRN TROF. MORE CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER NW MN
AND ONTARIO ALONG A STNRY FNT EXTENDING NE FM LO PRES IN THE NRN
PLAINS...BUT THESE CLDS ARE MAKING NO PROGRESS TOWARD THE CWA AND
THE DOMINATING UPR RDG. THERE WAS SOME FOG OVER INTERIOR E AND
SCENTRAL UPR MI AS WELL AS WI/LOWER MI THIS MRNG...BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING HAS DSPTD THIS FOG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU FRI REMAIN TEMPS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG TNGT AS THE UPR RDG/SFC HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS ARE FCST TO
REMAIN DOMINANT.

TNGT...EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE
OVER THE INTERIOR E AND SCENTRAL AGAIN TNGT CLOSER TO FLATTER PRES
GRADIENT AND CORE OF DRY AIR WITH PWAT FCST AOB 0.50 INCH EXCEPT
OVER THE FAR W...WHERE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER S WIND FARTHER
FM HI CENTER WL ALSO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPANDED FCST AREA
OF FOG INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AWAY FM THE LK SUP SHORE WITH
UPSLOPE SSE LLVL FLOW OFF LK MI. SUSPECT THE FOG WL BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE IN THIS AREA.

FRI...AS POTENT SHRTWV LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE WRN TROF AND THE PRES
FALLS IN THE PLAINS...THE GRADIENT OVER UPR MI WL SHARPEN THRU THE
DAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY S WINDS WITH MIXING IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL LIKELY BE AN INCRS IN HI CLDS AT LEAST OVER THE W UNDER THE
MORE DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALF CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV IN THE PLAINS...
MODELS SHOW THE LO/MID LYRS REMAINING DRY. WITH FCST H85 TEMPS TO
12C-14C...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S AGAIN AWAY FM THE
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LK MI IN LLVL SE FLOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
IN RECENT DAYS...THE HIEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OVER THE W NEAR LK SUP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

FRI NIGHT...MODELS HAVE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING
FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA INTO SRN MANITOBA AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
FM CENTRAL MN IN THE EVENING INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI BY 12Z SAT. WEAK
DYNAMICS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT INITIALLY AS IT WORKS ITS WAY INTO
WRN UPPER MI LATE FRI NIGHT AS BEST Q-VECT CONV WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NW ALONG WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW. GIVEN RELATIVELY POOR
DYNAMICS...LOOK FOR ONLY ISOLD TO SCT SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT
OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE FRI NIGHT. CURRENT 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD
COVER IT.

SAT INTO SAT EVENING...MODELS SHOW TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES...ONE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SECOND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EJECTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI. NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODELS
SHOW RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS 300K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND Q-VECT CONV INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES.
GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THESE DETAILS AND FCST PWAT VALUES
NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL WILL PROBABLY NEED BOOST POPS UP TO HIGH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES. WESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND
BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE EAST.

LATE SAT EVENING INTO MONDAY...DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL COOL MAINLY INTO THE 50S
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...AS W-NW FLOW BRINGS 8H TEMPS OF 0-1C
ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AND SREF MODEL INDICATING PWAT VALUES AOB .50
INCH. WILL FCST TEMPS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE CLOSER TO
BIAS CORRECTED GEM VALUES. HIGH TEMPS COULD MODERATE A FEW DEGREES
ON MONDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS EASTERLY.

TUE INTO THU...MODEL CONSISTENCY DIMINISHES OUT TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF AND GEM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
SYSTEM COMING IN FOR TUESDAY. NCEP FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH IS
SIMILAR TO GEM-NH AND SLOWER THAN GFS DUE IN LARGE PART TO DEEPER
TROUGHING EXPECTED OVER SW CONUS AND BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOLLOWING THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLN...BROUGHT
IN HIGHER CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE WRN COUNTIES MON NIGHT WITH
INCREASING DEEP LYR Q-VECT CONV AND THEN SPREAD HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE CWA ON TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED SOME HIGHER CHC POPS FOR WED AS
COMMA-HEAD MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
LINGER OVER INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
SHORTWAVE RDGG AND DRIER CONDITIONS WED NIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON
THU BRINGING ANOTHER CHC OF SHRA. MODELS NOT SHOWING VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH DETAILS OR STRENGTH WITH THU SYSTEM...SO EXPECT
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FINE TUNING OF FCST YET TO COME FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE RULE
THIS TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WL BE LATE TNGT INTO FRI MRNG AT SAW.
WITH A LGT UPSLOPE SSE WIND OFF LK MI UNDER LINGERING MID LVL DRY
AIR...OPTED TO INCLUDE A FCST OF FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THAT
LOCATION. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THIS FLOW AT CMX/IWD SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FOG AT THOSE SITES. A GUSTY S WIND WL DVLP LATER
IN THE TAF PERIOD ON FRI AFTN AT IWD WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

LIGHT E-SE WINDS WITH HI PRES DOMINATING WILL VEER TO THE S AND
INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS ON FRI INTO SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN THE HI CENTER TO THE E AND A DEVELOPING
LO IN THE PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU SCENTRAL CANADA INTO
HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SAT. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND THIS FROPA
SAT NIGHT/SUN AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS HI PRES MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDS ON MON INTO TUE WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE AS THE HI RETREATS INTO
CANADA AND A LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE MAY INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS BY TUE WITH FAVORABLE TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MATURE CYCLONE IN THE FORM OF A 988 MB SFC LOW OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL REACH ITS NADIR AROUND 12Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SODAK
WHEN THE HRRR HAS THE PRESSURE DOWN TO 985 MB WITH 12 HR H5 HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS NEB IN EXCESS OF 200 M. DURING THE MORNING THE SYSTEM
WILL START TO OCCLUDE AND BY 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING A 991/2 MB LOW
OVER SE NODAK THAT BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO A 995 MB LOW
EAST OF THE MANITOBA LAKES. THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NW MN WILL
SCOOT QUICKLY OFF INTO SRN CANADA TODAY...WITH AN OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SW MN AROUND 21Z...WILL BE CROSSING INTO WRN WI
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SATURDAY.

IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
BAND ONE WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE SEVERE SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED
ACROSS WRN NEB/KS LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A WAA BAND OF SHOWERS
THAT THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE HOPWRF HAVE BEEN HANDLING PRETTY
CONSISTENTLY OVERNIGHT...SO FOLLOWED THOSE MODELS TO BRING A NARROW
BAND OF HIGHER POPS INTO WRN MN AT 15Z...THAT WORKS OVER TOWARD THE
MN/WI BORDER SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER POPS TO
THE EAST WITH THIS...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING A CONTINUOUS
N-S ORIENTED BAND WORKING ACROSS THE ENTIRE MN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO UP POPS FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN
THUNDER LOOKING LIMITED AS WELL...BUT IT WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLL IN
THE POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS THANKS TO ITS CLOUD COVER AND
ITS LIMITING OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION.

AS FOR THAT SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP...IT WOULD FORM ALONG THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IT REPRESENTS THE
SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY AS WELL. ONE LOOK AT A FORECAST HODOGRAPH
SHOWS THAT ONE THING THAT WILL NOT BE IN QUESTION TODAY IS
SHEAR...LETS JUST SAY IT WILL BE COPIOUS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF TURNING WITHIN JUST THE LOWEST 1-3 KM OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDED BY A LLJ AT H85 THAT WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO OVER 50
KTS OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY GET THE HEART
PUMPING A BIT...A QUICK LOOK AT THE CAPE PROFILE SHOULD QUICKLY CALM
YOU BACK DOWN AS SBCAPE LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 700 J/KG AT
BEST...WITH CAPE PROFILES BEING QUITE SKINNY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE SHALLOW...HENCE THE MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS IN THE SPC SWODY1. THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ORIENTED MORE N-S ACROSS SRN MN...BUT WILL BE ARCING TO MORE
OF E-W ORIENTATION ACROSS WC MN INTO THE SFC LOW OVER SE NODAK. THE
SPC SWODY1 SLIGHT RISK IS CENTERED MORE ON WHERE THE FRONT TAKES ON
MORE OF A LATITUDINAL ORIENTATION...THOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT SCP/STP
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPIN AND THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES LOOKS TO
KEEP THIS AS A WIND/TORNADO THREAT ONLY.

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH A RAPIDLY DECAYING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO ERN
MN/WRN WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
PRIMARY UPPER FORCING WILL BE MOVING UP INTO WRN ONTARIO...WITH NOT
MUCH MORE THAN SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO WORK WITH FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF DECREASING POPS THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO.

WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM WHAT WAS
INHERITED. HOWEVER...WITH THE GFSLAMP SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT
AXN INCREASING TO OVER 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO TACK ON
ANOTHER 4 COUNTIES TO THE NORTH OF THE EXISTING WIND ADVY.

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS
TO SLOW THE FRONTS TIMING BY A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO ENJOY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES ON A
BELOW NORMAL JOURNEY. THERE WILL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS RESULTING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... ALTHOUGH MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THERE IS A CONTINUED SLOWING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT... BROKE THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
POP/WX GRIDS INTO 6 HOUR BLOCKS AND SLOWED THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI OVER WHAT THE CR
EXTEND INDICATED. THIS KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TWIN CITIES UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT AROUND MID WEEK.
THE GFS WOULD KEEP AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF AN
UPPER LOW AND DRAGS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS...PRECIPITATION AND HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT... HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY WITH COOL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

NO CHGS TO PREVIOUS TAF WITH -SHRA AT KRWF/KAXN BY 18Z...BUT CIGS
WILL HOLD AOA 3.5K. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS. ONLY A SMALL
WINDOW OF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHRA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 KTS BY 17-18Z ACROSS MOST OF MPX TAF SITES. BEST CHC OF SHRA
WILL OCCUR AT KRWF/KAXN BETWEEN 16-19Z...AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTN
WITH A CHC OF TSRA. FURTHER EAST...CHC/S OF TSRA ARE LOW BUT NOT
OUT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS ON THE INSTABILITY
DURING THE MORNING. AFT 00Z/12...WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
S/SW WITH WIND SPDS DROPPING TO ARND 14-16 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
20-24 KTS.

KMSP...

NO MAJOR CHGS TO PREVIOUS TAF WITH THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY
AFT 20Z...BUT ENDING DURING THE EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY A LOW CHC OF MVFR VSBYS IF A HEAVIER
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS. BEST CHC OF TSRA WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 15-17Z
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS BY 17-18Z...AND CONTINUING THRU THE
AFTN. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE S/SSW BY LATE EVENING...WITH A
MORE SW WIND TOWARD 12Z/12.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. WINDS WSW AT 15G20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W AT 10G15 KTS.
MON....VFR WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS ESE AT 10G15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-073>075-082-083-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 340 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

CYCLOGENESIS WELL UNDERWAY AS ADVERTISED ACROSS ERN
COL/SWRN NEB UNDERNEATH POTENT SRN BRANCH OF THE  WESTERLIES. NRN
BRANCH OF SPLIT JETSTREAM IS AMPLIFYING SLIGHTLY OVER WRN CANADA/NRN
ROCKIES AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF PROGRESSES ACROSS SRN ALB.
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN MID LVLS ACROSS NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF
EJECTING NEGATIVE TIL TROF. 45/50KT LLJ IS CONCENTRATED FROM TX INTO
ERN SODAK WITH A WEAKER EXTENSION NORTH INTO NWRN MN. 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER CWA PAST 6 HRS AS SFC/MID LVL
SYSTEMS REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY...TONIGHT...TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER NEB WILL LIFT NORTH INTO ERN NODAK BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIALLY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
MOISTEN THIS AFTERNOON AS FRNTL BDRY APPROACHES. 85H MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO BRD LAKES VICINITY LATE TODAY.
LOW LVL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. A WELL MIXED BDRY LYR IS EXPECTED AS INCREASING PGF COMBINES
WITH UPPER JET APPROACHING CWA. BUFKIT MOMENTUM PROFILES/HRRR WIND
GUST PRODUCTS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR G40 MPH ACROSS SRN CASS/CROW
WING COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY WILL LIFT TO
ABOUT 250 TO 500 J/KG IN SWRN PART OF CWA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A FEW FAST MOVING LOW TOPPED CELLS TO ORGANIZE. SPC SREF
CAL PROB OF SVR HIGHLIGHTS AN AREA JUST SW OF DLH CWA FROM 21Z-03Z.
SPC 4KM WRF INDICATES AN INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION ROTATING INTO
THE WRN CWA AFTER 21Z..WITH A SECONDARY BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ARRIVING IN THE EVENING. BOTH AREAS GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR. LOWERING SFC PRESS TO THE
WEST SHOULD INDUCE A STIFF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
TEMPS IN LOW 50S ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS SO COOLER BY THE LAKE
TODAY.

TONIGHT...OCCLUDED SFC BDRY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AND APPROACH TWIN
PORTS AROUND 06Z. CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
APPROACHES THE ERN CWA AS MLCAPE LOWERS QUICKLY. HOWEVER STRONG
KINEMATICS ...INCLUDING A 50/55KT LLJ...MAY ALLOW TRANSPORT OF
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN SOME OF THE SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING OVER MN ZONES. THE FRONTAL BDRY SHOULD REACH THE ERN
ARROWHEAD AND ERN WISC ZONES BY 12Z WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW...A MID LVL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF WILL WORK
ACROSS THE CWA. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRY WX WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN
THE DAY IN MOST OF THE REGION. IN THE AFTN A WELL DEFINED WRAPAROUND
AREA OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL SWEEP ACROSS MOST OF THE MN ZONES. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTN AS
COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY EARLY IN THE
DAY AS THE MIXING LAYER TAPS INTO 35/40KT WINDS IN LOWEST 5K FT. MAY
NEED TO ADJUST WINDS HIGHER BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AFTN AS QUICK EXPANSION OF CLOUD COVER LIMITS MOMENTUM TRANSFER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN LINGERING OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AS FRIDAYS STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER REGION.  COLDER AIR WILL HAVE BEEN
BROUGHT DOWN INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS
WELL...SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TURN BACK TOWARDS COLDER THAN
NORMAL.  MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE DOWN
IN THE 30S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 50S.

THE STORM SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEGINNING TO GET A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENCY FROM THE MODELS.  MODELS ARE STILL VARYING IN
TRACK...TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT MAINLY MORE FOR THE LATER PERIODS
OF THE STORM...AND THE NEARER PERIODS IMPROVING.  GFS IS STILL
FASTER AND WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. AM CONCERNED FOR
MONDAY AS THE MODEL POP GRIDS ARE SURPRISINGLY HIGH FOR MONDAY GIVEN
THE PATTERN...AND SUSPECT THEY ARE BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION IN TOO
QUICKLY.  HAVE ONCE AGAIN RAISED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  PREVIOUS MODELS HAD BROUGHT SOME SUB-ZERO
TEMPERATURES IN AT 850MB TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD IMPLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX.  HOWEVER...THE EVENING RUN OF MODELS
WERE LESS COLD...AND THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS LESS CONCERNING AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

0.5KM SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 30-40 KTS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SHOW
BORDER-LINE WIND SHEAR ISSUES IN THE TAFS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
THAT OUT. EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SOUTHWEST AREAS INCLUDING KBRD WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE RATHER STRONG IN THE
EVENING DUE TO HIGH SHEAR AND ADEQUATE CAPE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  51  55  38 /  30  50  30  10
INL  72  53  54  35 /  50  60  50  30
BRD  72  48  54  36 /  60  60  20  10
HYR  73  52  59  36 /  10  30  10  10
ASX  74  55  61  39 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MELDE








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 1240 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

AT 315PM/2015Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR NEW
ENGLAND AND WAS DOMINATING THE WEATHER OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LIFTING
THROUGH THE ARIZONA/UTAH AREA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHLAND...HAD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR
HAVE NE OR ONSHORE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE THE WINDS NOT SUBSIDE
MUCH TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BREWING IN THE PLAINS. THE WINDS WILL
HELP BOLSTER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING FROM THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA OVER THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT...AND THAT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
UP.I INCREASED THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH LOW TO MID 50S
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND. GUSTY SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND
AREAS...AND NE OR ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. I INCREASED
THE WINDS OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST QUITE A BIT. THE GFS BUFR AND
NAM12 SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF FLOW IN THE MIXING
LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHLAND WILL
LIKELY SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THOSE MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN
HAD HIGHER WINDS...BUT I DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE THE WINDS TOO
MUCH SO AS TO NOT MAKE A KNEE JERK REACTION FORECAST. IF THE
SUBSEQUENT MODELS COME IN JUST AS HIGHER OR HIGHER...THAN THE
NIGHT SHIFT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE WINDS EVEN MORE AND MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY. SHOWERS AND STRAY STORMS COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY NE MINNESOTA...DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL MUCH CAPE...SO I
IMAGINE ANY STRAY STORMS WILL BE WEAK. MOST OF ANY PCPN SHOULD BE
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

ACTIVE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MULTIPLE WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

HAVE EXPANDED ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SMALL CAPE VALUES. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WINDS
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG MIXING DUE TO COLD TEMPS ALOFT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD. FOCUS TURNS
TO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA...AND
INTO WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM
TRACK WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
LOW...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

0.5KM SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 30-40 KTS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND RAP SHOW
BORDER-LINE WIND SHEAR ISSUES IN THE TAFS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
THAT OUT. EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SOUTHWEST AREAS INCLUDING KBRD WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE RATHER STRONG IN THE
EVENING DUE TO HIGH SHEAR AND ADEQUATE CAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  57  38  52 /  50  20  10  10
INL  53  54  36  49 /  60  30  20  10
BRD  49  55  35  55 /  40  20  10  10
HYR  52  60  37  56 /  30  20  10  10
ASX  54  61  40  54 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 257 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY AND HEAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. FAIRLY
NARROW 75 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKENING. LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR MODEL SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...WITH BEST
CHANCES LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
WILL EAST/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 15/16Z. WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WINDY CONDITIONS SET UP FOR MOST AREAS BEHIND
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERN TIER
OF COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT MEET OFFICIAL CRITERIA...BUT
IT`S PROBABLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.

COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM WEST/NORTHWEST. TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH
FOR WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND EXITING MONDAY
NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ALREADY HAD 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS AND
IN GENERAL...LEFT THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP POPS UP 5 TO 10
PERCENT BASED ON MODEL CONTINUITY AND TIMING. PRECIP WOULD MOSTLY
BE OUT OF HERE BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST NEXT WEEK INDICATES COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...AND STILL NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNS OF A
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE JUST YET...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD FLIRT WITH MID/UPPER 30S.

DEWALD

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK

A LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MARCH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TAF SITES. WE STILL FEEL...AND SHORT TERM
CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AND STABLE AIR OVER
EASTERN NEB SAMPLED BY THE 00Z KOAX SOUNDING. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY MENTION RA IN OFK AND LEAVE LNK/OMA DRY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT FOR EITHER. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY DECREASE BY LATE FRI MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AND VEER TO THE WEST.
SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE LIKELY AT ALL 3
SITES.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

 1131 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

.UPDATE...
HAVE EXPIRED HIGH WIND WARNING AS CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE
UNFAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HIGH WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH NO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE SITES.  SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 07Z FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF PACIFIC COLD
FRONT.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS MUCH LOWER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.  NO LOW CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

UPDATE...
THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE HAS SHOWN THE NOCTURNAL CAPPING INVERSION
INCREASING IN STRENGTH WITH TIME WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. WITH THAT BEING SAID AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST CAN`T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO BE DRAGGED TO
THE SURFACE DURING CONVECTIVE DECAY.

CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
FURTHER NORTH. THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUC REPRESENTS THIS PRETTY WELL AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN THE AREA UNTIL 7-8Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUT WEST...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT. VIRGA SHOWERS OVERRUNNING THE DRY AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT GIVES RISE TO CONCERN FOR ISOLATED HIGH WIND GUSTS AS THE
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED AIR COULD DRAG HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. FOR THIS REASON THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS INTACT FOR
NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

AVIATION...
GRADIENT WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT AT KDHT AND KGUY.
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
ECHOES SEEN ON RADAR HAVE YET TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING IN FORECAST
AREA...YET CONVECTIVE GUSTS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL STILL PRODUCE
SEVERE GUSTS OF 50 KT.  PASSAGE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS.  NO
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRODUCTS ISSUED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 545.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

ALL SIGNS POINT TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PANHANDLES WITH
MULTIPLE SHOTS AT PRECIPITATION. HAVE UTILIZED A NAM/ECMWF BLEND
FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL PERIODS FOLLOWED BY AN ALMOST STRICTLY ECMWF
SOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES AS THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME.
PLEASE SEE THE 1208 PM AFD UPDATE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THESE WILL BE PLEASANT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST EVERYWHERE
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A LOW LVL JET WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NWD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH DEWPTS SURGING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S BY MIDDAY
SUN. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD INTERACT WITH
PWATS WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND PERTURBED SW
FLOW ALOFT TO GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
BOOSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SOME OF THE STORMS ON SUN COULD BE SEVERE AS MOST MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
BULK SHEAR. THE SUN SEVERE THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE CONDITIONAL ON
DIURNAL HEATING...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP. WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON THIS PERIOD AS ALL
WEATHER TYPES COULD BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
A PACIFIC/ARCTIC FRONT COMBO WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LINGERING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE ERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AS IT PASSES
THROUGH ON MONDAY. IF SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY AND LOW CLOUDS DO NOT
PRECLUDE DIURNAL HEATING...SVR WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MON
AFTERNOON IN THE ERN PANHANDLES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED ECMWF FOR THIS
PERIOD. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY...WITH WEDNESDAY
POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. A BRIEF WARMUP
COULD COMMENCE THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BUT THE TIME WINDOW SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND FUELS ARE GENERALLY STILL GREEN IN THESE AREAS. BEYOND FRIDAY...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/14






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

 1120 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH NO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE SITES.  SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 07Z FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF PACIFIC COLD
FRONT.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS MUCH LOWER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.  NO LOW CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

UPDATE...
THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE HAS SHOWN THE NOCTURNAL CAPPING INVERSION
INCREASING IN STRENGTH WITH TIME WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. WITH THAT BEING SAID AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST CAN`T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO BE DRAGGED TO
THE SURFACE DURING CONVECTIVE DECAY.

CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
FURTHER NORTH. THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUC REPRESENTS THIS PRETTY WELL AND
KEEPS CONVECTION IN THE AREA UNTIL 7-8Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUT WEST...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT. VIRGA SHOWERS OVERRUNNING THE DRY AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT GIVES RISE TO CONCERN FOR ISOLATED HIGH WIND GUSTS AS THE
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED AIR COULD DRAG HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. FOR THIS REASON THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS INTACT FOR
NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

AVIATION...
GRADIENT WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT AT KDHT AND KGUY.
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
ECHOES SEEN ON RADAR HAVE YET TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING IN FORECAST
AREA...YET CONVECTIVE GUSTS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL STILL PRODUCE
SEVERE GUSTS OF 50 KT.  PASSAGE OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS.  NO
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRODUCTS ISSUED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 545.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

ALL SIGNS POINT TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PANHANDLES WITH
MULTIPLE SHOTS AT PRECIPITATION. HAVE UTILIZED A NAM/ECMWF BLEND
FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL PERIODS FOLLOWED BY AN ALMOST STRICTLY ECMWF
SOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES AS THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME.
PLEASE SEE THE 1208 PM AFD UPDATE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THESE WILL BE PLEASANT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST EVERYWHERE
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A LOW LVL JET WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NWD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH DEWPTS SURGING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S BY MIDDAY
SUN. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD INTERACT WITH
PWATS WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND PERTURBED SW
FLOW ALOFT TO GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
BOOSTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SOME OF THE STORMS ON SUN COULD BE SEVERE AS MOST MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
BULK SHEAR. THE SUN SEVERE THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE CONDITIONAL ON
DIURNAL HEATING...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP. WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON THIS PERIOD AS ALL
WEATHER TYPES COULD BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
A PACIFIC/ARCTIC FRONT COMBO WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LINGERING
RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE ERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AS IT PASSES
THROUGH ON MONDAY. IF SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY AND LOW CLOUDS DO NOT
PRECLUDE DIURNAL HEATING...SVR WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MON
AFTERNOON IN THE ERN PANHANDLES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED ECMWF FOR THIS
PERIOD. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY...WITH WEDNESDAY
POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. A BRIEF WARMUP
COULD COMMENCE THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BUT THE TIME WINDOW SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND FUELS ARE GENERALLY STILL GREEN IN THESE AREAS. BEYOND FRIDAY...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...
     SHERMAN.

OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

03/14






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 1101 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

.UPDATE...

DENSE FOG SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIFR IN FOG OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE HIGHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO DO
NOT EXPECT AS MUCH FOG. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY 15Z.

HIGHER 925-850 RH FIELD SURGES NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WAS SHOWING ITSELF AS A DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD OVER
CENTRAL IL. SO AT THIS TIME WILL NOT FORECAST WIDESPREAD STRATUS
WITH THIS INCREASE IN RH. MAIN DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL FORCING FOR
SHRA/TSRA ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

PATTERN REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH JUST A SLOW APPROACH OF
THE TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 50S
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTH.
LOW LEVEL RH PROGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN
RH ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAIN CONCERN
RESTS WITH HOW EXTENSIVE FOG WILL BE. SREF...WHILE WOEFULLY
UNDERFORECASTING FOG LAST NIGHT...IS SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER SIGNAL
TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG MOVING IN FROM THE LAKE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. THE 925-950 WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT.
OVERALL THE GRADIENT IN THE CWA REMAINS PRETTY WEAK. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH THE PATCHY FOG IDEA...THOUGH FEEL THE EASTERN CWA MAY BE
MORE FAVORED FOR A BIT MORE GIVEN LESS 925/850 WIND SPEEDS AND
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE. WILL PASS ALONG CONCERNS TO THE EVENING SHIFT.

WARM AND MILD DAY AFTER THE LINGERING FOG BURNS OFF. 925 TEMPS
MODIFY FURTHER INTO THE 15-17C RANGE. THE 925-850 RH SUGGESTS WE MAY
END UP WITH AT LEAST A BROKEN CU FIELD WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
PLACE. ANY FORCING FROM THE SURFACE FRONT OR UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
UP...BREEZY SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH 925 WINDS INCREASING TO 20
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.  COLUMN
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER ONE INCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING.  WHILE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAINS WELL WEST OF
THE AREA...SPOKE OF SHORT WAVE VORTICITY AND WEAKER WARM AIR
ADVECTION SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 200 J/KG.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA WL BE
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS ERN CWA WHEN LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCD WITH
FRONT COINCIDES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF PASSING UPPER JET.
DRIER AIR SETTLES IN FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT ON SATURDAY AS MAIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS WISCONSIN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN SATURDAY NIGHT.  CLEAR SKIES AND 925H
TEMPS FAVOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING FROST IN WESTERN CWA DUE TO
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BUT WL NEED TO WATCH THOSE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT
START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CARRY DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM AFFECTING SOUTHERN
WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
ON STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AS WELL AS TIMING.  AT THIS POINT...WL LEAN
MORE ON WEAKER SOLUTION THAT GEM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN GRAVITATING
TOWARDS OVER LAST SEVERAL RUNS...CONSIDERING LACK OF UPSTREAM KICKER
AND INCREASE OF SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINICITY...AND DISREGARD GFS
STRONGER SOLUTION AS MORE OF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW.  HENCE SHOWER
THREAT SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
WED.

MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AROUND WED NGT...HOWEVER WITH
LINGERING UPSTREAM TROF...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY USHER COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA WITH AN INCREASING LIKLIHOOD OF FROST/FREEZING TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GFS 5-DAY 500H MEANS SHOW 150 METER
NEGATIVE ANOMOLY SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES CENTERED AT
00Z/18.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG REDEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 925-850 WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN
LAST NIGHT THOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. MOS AND HRRR VSBYS HANDLED THINGS PRETTY WELL LAST NIGHT
WITH SREF NOT SO GOOD. WILL TREND VSBYS LOWER GIVEN CONSENSUS
BETWEEN GFS AND NAM MOS DATA. HIGHER 925-850 RH FIELD SURGES NORTH
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS CURRENTLY SHOWING ITSELF AS A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD CNTRL IL. SO AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
FORECAST WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH THIS INCREASE IN RH. MAIN DYNAMICS
AND FRONTAL FORCING FOR SHRA/TSRA ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ052-059-060-065-
     066-070>072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 942 AM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...WINDS STEADILY DECREASING...THOUGH SOME GUSTS STILL
IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. CURRENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM GJT TO DEN AT 8.33 MB...DOWN FROM A MAX OF 11.35 MB AT 10Z
DURING THE PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS. TREND FOR DECREASING WINDS STILL
ON TRACK...THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA ACROSS PLAINS.
ALLOWED HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. SNOW ALSO ON THE
DECREASE AS NOTED BY WEB CAMS...THOUGH RADAR STILL SHOWING THE
ECHOES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ADVISORY FOR MOUNTAINS TO
EXPIRE AT 18Z AND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS DON`T THINK AN EXTENSION
IS NEEDED. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM ACROSS
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING LIFT AND MINOR CAPE FROM
EXITING TROUGH. GRIDS AND CURRENT FORECASTS ON TRACK AT THIS
POINT...WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

.AVIATION...WINDS SHOWING MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...STILL
LESS THAN 8 KTS...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH THE
RECENT UPDATE BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND RAP
STILL INDICATING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT DEN AND APA WITH
LOCAL ANTICYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF DENVER WHILE THE LATEST NAM
SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH NO ANTICYCLONE. NORTHWEST WINDS TO
PREVAIL AT BJC. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TAF TRENDS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF -SHRA BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z...VCSH LOOKS GOOD. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013/

SHORT TERM...MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTN. SOME
MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN LOW AND STILL PRODUCING RAIN
ALONG THE WY-NE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE DECENT
SUBSIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE AREA AND COMBINING WITH A
DECENT LOW LVL GRADIENT WHICH IS STARTING TO ENHANCE WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS. A FEW GUSTS TO 80 MPH HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE PAST
HOUR IN THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS OF BOULDER AND NRN JEFFERSON
COUNTIES. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW HIGH WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE THRU
ABOUT 15Z AND THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WY-CO-NE BORDER AS WELL THRU THE
DAY HOWEVER WILL KEEP GUSTS JUST BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA.  IN THE
MTNS MOST OF THE SNOW IS OCCURRING NORTH OF I-70. CROSS-SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS HOWEVER MOISTURE DEPTH IS
ONLY ABOUT 200 MB WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES THRU MIDDAY.

FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT A WK UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WIND MAX AT 250 MB. IN ADDITION A COOL FNT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO THIS EVENING. THUS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW. OVER
NERN CO MAY SEE A CHC OF SHOWERS BY LATE AFTN THRU THE EVENING
HOURS AS WELL. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHC LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF
A DENVER TO AKRON LINE. AS FAR AS HIGHS TODAY WILL KEEP READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS NERN CO.

LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DIGS
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY KEEPING A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THIS WEEKEND.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH
USHERS IN WARMER AIR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE BROAD TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO
WYOMING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO.
MODELS SHOWING THE DRY SLOT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW WILL FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND PULL COOLER AIR
INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH. THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES
ELONGATED. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN
ARIZONA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE DETAILS AND TIMING. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO SOMETIME TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL. THERE IS AT LEAST ONE SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...THOUGH TIMING IS DIFFERENT AMONG THE MODELS. FOR POPS...WILL
GO WITH 10-20 POPS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

AVIATION...ONCE AGAIN NOT REAL CONFIDENT ABOUT WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. RAP TRIES TO SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WNW BY SUNRISE WHILE
THE HRRR KEEPS THEM SSW THRU 15Z. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM MORE SSW
THRU 15Z. AFTER 15Z BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW WINDS BECOMING E OR
NE AS A LONGMENT ANTICYLONE DEVELOPS DUE TO NWLY WINDS COMING OFF
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE SO WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION FM 15Z-18Z. BY
EARLY AFTN WINDS LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE BREAKS DOWN AS WINDS BECOME
MORE NNW. FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE AFTER
SUNSET. BY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHC OF
-SHRA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WITH CEILINGS
BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 8000 FT.

HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...D-L




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 1044 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF NORFOLK WILL EDGE NORTH TO THE
DELMARVA COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE STALLING. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND FORCE THE LOW BACK OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN ITS EXPECTED TO TRUNDLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES
MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD
JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE
APPALACHIANS LATE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A MORNING IT HAS BEEN THUS FAR ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METRO
AREA. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NEW CASTLE
AND CHESTER COUNTIES FOR THE SMALLER RIVERS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW DELAWARE JUST SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH
MULTIPLE OTHERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT TOUCHED OFF ALL THESE HEAVY
STORMS HAS MOVED WELL WEST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME, AS ANOTHER
WAVE BEGINS TO COME ONSHORE NOW.

DO NOT THINK THIS WAVE WILL BE AS VOLATILE AS ITS PREDECESSOR
THOUGH THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA WITH MESOSCALE BANDING TAKING PLACE. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO HINT AT A BETTER TROWAL LIKE FEATURE ACCOMPANYING
THIS BANDING WHICH WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF LIFTING AND
POSSIBLY SLANTWISE CONVECTION TAKING PLACE, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY, PERHAPS DIMINISHING SOME
BY EVENING. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ANY
HEAVY RAIN COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH TIDE WOULD JUST ADD TO
DRAINAGE PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH AND MID 60S SOUTH, WHICH IS ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO START PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY START THE PROCESS
OF NUDGING THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OFF THE VA/NC COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE, BUT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW
INCHES SOUTH, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOO.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM LIKELY TO CHC IN THE NORTH...AND
FROM CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH, AND PERHAPS IN THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMBINATION OF THE WRF-NMMB AND GFS LOOKED TO FIT THE 500MB
PATTERN THE BEST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE BOTH MODELS
INITIALIZATION LOOKED A BIT TOO EAST IN THE ROCKIES. AT 925MB
AND 850MB THE GFS LOOKED BETTER.

IF THE SUITE OF LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUNS DEPICTED THE DARKEST DEPTHS
OF MORDOR, THE LAST TWO SOUNDING RUNS ARE OFFERING A BIT MORE
ENCOURAGEMENT FOR A HASTIER EXIT OF THIS ATLANTIC SYSTEM. MAYBE
NO NEED TO STATE THE OBVIOUS AS TO HOW PETULANT THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN TO FORECAST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PCPN HAS FAILED TO REACH ITS GEOGRAPHICAL GOAL, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO MEET THE IMPROVED TIMING ABOUT HALFWAY. THIS
PACKAGE IS CLOSER TO THE GFS TIMING, NOT AS OPTIMISTIC AS THE WRF-
NMMB FOR NOW OR AS DOUR AS THE UKMET.

ON SATURDAY, REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF PCPN, THERE IS GENERAL
MODELING CONSENSUS THAT THE LARGER SCALE FORCING AND FEATURES ARE
WANING. WE STILL HAVE A LLJ COMING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND THE FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST BELOW 700MB. WE ARE LACKING THE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS A SEMBLANCE OF 700MB SPEED MAX AND
FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE IS NOW LIMITED TO THE LOWER MID LEVELS.
THIS ALL POINTS TO LIGHTER PCPN OVERALL. HIEST POPS ARE TIED TO
WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK FCST LLVL THETA ADVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AS TO PCPN OCCURRING IS
WEAKER FARTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA.

THE CAVEAT REMAINS IN THE BOUNCINESS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CONVECTION (WHICH I UNDERSOLD FOR TODAY) SHOULD BE KNOCKING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. IT IS FAIRLY WARM AT 925MB AND 850MB, BUT THE FLOW IS
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD TEMPER MAX TEMPS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO STAT
GUIDANCE AND NOT MUCH REMOVED FROM OCEAN TEMPS. FAR FAR NORTH IF
MORE SUN IS PRESENT, WE MAY BE TOO LOW.

WE KNOCK PCPN CHANCES DOWN ANOTHER PEG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FCST
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET CONFINED TO A LOWER LEVEL IN OUR AIR MASS
AS ITS FORECAST TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PARTIALLY TIED TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT TOWARD THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AS
CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRESENT.

ON SUNDAY, POPS WERE CONFINED TO THE MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUN
CAN OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AS THE FLOW IS STILL
ONSHORE AND STILL RICH IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT
ON SUNDAY IS NOT THAT MUCH WEAKER THAN SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS LEANED
TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE.

LIKELY TOO MUCH WIND SUNDAY NIGHT (EXCEPT MAYBE FAR NORTHWEST) TO
RADIATE. EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT IN SKY COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES. COLUMBUS DAY IS PCPN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT WEAKENS IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEHIND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVE US A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
PSBLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
AS THE APPROACHING AIR MASS IS NOT THAT COOL. WEDNESDAY`S PCPN
CHANCES MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST BASED ON THE INITIALIZATION WEST.

A BETTER AND MORE CONFIDENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD COME AROUND
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY AT ABE AND RDG, WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, DUE
TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EMBEDDED PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT THE CONVEYOR BELTS
OF RAIN ABATE, AND CLOUDS START TO LIFT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, BUT THEIR SPEEDS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.


OUTLOOK..
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. SOME IFR
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ON SATURDAY AND ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHEST
SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH AIRPORTS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE
95 BY SUNDAY AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING FROM THE INTERSTATE
95 AIRPORTS SOUTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHEST SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE UPPER BAY WAS CANCELLED AS THE GUSTS HAVE
SETTLED BELOW 25 KNOTS, THOUGH AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE IS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSWHERE ON THE FORECAST
WATERS...EVEN IF THE WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 25 KT...SEAS ARE STILL
RUNNING HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE WEEKEND...SO THE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
AND LOWER DE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SUB
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO PART OR ALL
OF SUNDAY WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OUTLOOKED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ON THE OCEAN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS ARE
OUTLOOKED TO END DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITHIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...THIS TIME THROUGH THE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEAN
FRONT, THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, AND OUR SIDE OF RARITAN BAY. THERE
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. GIVEN THE CONTINUING
ONSHORE FLOW, BACK BAY AND INLET TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD BE GREATER
THAN AVERAGE.

ONLY AN INCREMENTAL EASING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE SATURDAY EXTENSION IS LOWEST AROUND
MIDDLESEX AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES AS THEY WILL SEE THE EASING OF THE
WINDS FIRST. OUR LOCAL PROCEDURE IS TAKING SANDY HOOK RIGHT AROUND
THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AT THIS TIME.
IF COASTAL FLOODING WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD BE TOWARD THE LOW END
OF MINOR.

THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ANOTHER PEG ON SUNDAY. THUS
THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST MAY NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. WE ARE NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE REST OF THE COAST WHERE THE
PRESENT ADVISORY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
REGARDLESS TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LESS ON SUNDAY. ALONG THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, LATEST MDL GUIDANCE KEEPS US CLOSE TO MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY CBOFS AND MDL
GUIDANCE KEEP CAMBRIDGE BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS, SO WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING PROBLEMS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 711 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER MAINE. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NORFOLK IS
STALLED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR BALTIMORE METRO PER RADAR
TRENDS AND LOWER FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR CITY OF BALTIMORE. ONE TO TWO
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WILL NEED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THE INCOMING PLUME WILL
SHIFT SOUTH OVER AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL MD AND THE ERN WV PANHANDLE
THAT RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 07Z...1010MB SFC LOW STALLED ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY (AND SATURDAY). MOST
MODERATE RAIN HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE...WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OVER ST MARYS COUNTY. AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA (LESS RAIN FOR THE SWRN
ZONES ON THE WRAP AROUND OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH DRIZZLE IS STILL
POSSIBLE).

CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NRN COUNTIES ALONG THE MASON-DIXON AS
3-4 INCHES FELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE
CURRENT BREAK IN RAIN OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST DECIDED TO
DELAY. HRRR AND NAM/GFS HIGHLIGHT THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP TABS ON
RAIN AND RIVER TRENDS. FURTHERMORE...THE NAM PROGS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
BE MUCH MORE ELY (WITH GREATER UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT) OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAN THE GFS/ECMWF.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE DIURNAL AGAIN TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SOCKED IN AND
DRIZZLE/RAIN...MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION NOW THAT THE LOW IS CLOSER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED...ALLOWING MID/UPR LEVELS
TO DRY OUT. PRECIP RATES SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRIZZLE COME SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPR 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS IS A FAIRLY UNIQUE SYNOPTIC PATTERN - THE HIGH TO THE N WL
HOLD THE LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC CST SAT. THIS WL KEEP RGN UNDER
CONT CLDY SKIES W/ CHCS OF RA. RAFL SHOULD NOWHERE NEAR BE AS HVY AS
THU THO. HIGHS IN THE LM60S. LOWS SAT NGT IN 50S.

IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGH SHOULD PUSH S ON SUN...WHICH WOULD HV THE
PTNL TO BRING SOME SUNSHINE TO THE MID ATLC...BUT I`M SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL. GFS PORTAYS THIS AS A CAD PATTERN...SO WL MAINTAIN XTNSV
CLD CVR. IF IT RAINS QPF WL MOST LKLY BE LGT.

XTND MDLS INDICATE AN EROSION OF THE DEEP LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
OCCUR ERLY IN THE NEW WK...BUT THERE WON`T BE A MECHANISM LK A
STRONG FNT TO SCOUR OUT ALL THE MOISTURE. THERE`LL PRBLY STILL BE
A DECENT AMT OF CLD CVR...ESPECIALLY AFTR MID MNRG.

BOTH ECM AND GFS SHOW A SHORT WV EJECTING OUT OF A SWRN U.S. LONG
WV DURG THE MID PART OF NEXT WK...LKLY REACHING THE E CST NEXT
THU. THUS POPS ARE IN THE FCST THEN. FOR THE NEW WK HIGHS SHOULD GNRLY
BE 65-70. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STALLED ALONG THE COAST AT THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH
TODAY. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR WITH SOME
LIFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. KCHO MAY
REMAIN MVFR AS IT IS IN THE WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE LOW. LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE PREVAILS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR
MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE INCL KMRB.

IN THE XTND...XTSV CLD CVR XPCTD TO RMN OVR THE MID ALTC RGN THIS
WKND...PSBLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. SOME IMPRVMNT IS XPCTD DURG THE
1ST PART OF THE NEW WK.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS STALLED ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER AND
WILL PERSIST ALL DAY. FLOW WILL REMAIN NNELY WITH THOUGH THE GUST
POTENTIAL HAS DROPPED TO 25 KT OR LESS. SCA UP FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC (WHICH WILL SEE UP TO 15 KT WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT.) SOME GUSTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A THUNDERSTORM IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE SRN MD WATERS...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE NORM TODAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY HAS BEEN XTND INTO SAT FOR ALL XCPT THE UPR
PTMC. MAJORITY OF THE WKND LOOKING CLDY W/ PDS OF RA - NOT THE
BEST WX FOR BOATING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION ON
THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY SOUTH FROM ANNAPOLIS AND THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC. THE LESSER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.
AS OF NOW IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT ALL LEVELS WILL BE JUST BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND ANY
NECESSARY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE DELIVERED WITH AS MUCH
LEAD TIME AS POSSIBLE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE PREFERRED HIGH TIDE
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ON THE MD WRN SHORE SOUTH FROM ANNAPOLIS AND
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004>007-011.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/JACKSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 648 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...BEHAVING
IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO THE FOG OBSERVED YESTERDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT AN INFLUENCE FOR ONE MORE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT TONIGHT
MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOG TRENDS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING THIS MORNING AS A FEW OBSERVATION
SITES HAVE EVEN IMPROVED ON VISIBILITIES. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
EXPANSION OF THE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOWER AND THE
EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA. RUC13 SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SUPPORTS A RIPENING NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT AS DAWN
APPROACHES. WILL TOE THE LINE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAS TO PATCHY
DENSE WORDING THE EVENING CREW INTRODUCED.

ANOTHER DAY OF PROTOTYPICAL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. LITTLE TO NO THERMAL
ADVECTIONS IN STATIC NEAR TERM REGIME SUPPORTS A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH FULL
INSOLATION WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO ON MOS CONSENSUS.

SURFACE TRAJECTORIES TONIGHT SUGGESTS SEMICH WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LIGHT EASTERLY DRAINAGE OFF OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. COMPROMISED ON LOWS...UPPER
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR THE DETROIT URBAN HEAT ISLAND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW NOW
ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS INTO
MANITOBA ON SATURDAY. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES HOWEVER SHOW A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE OVER WRN MONTANA. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
INTO MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN POTENTIAL
VORTICITY. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES SAT AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT AND BETTER MIXING DEPTHS MAY ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S. A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL HOWEVER
ADVECT SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SE MI FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SAT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S EAST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS IN TERMS OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FGEN IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GOOD AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE SAT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET MAX ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SAT NIGHT...WHICH CAUSES THE DEEP LAYER FGEN TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
FRONT TRAVERSES SE MI. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF JUST CHANCE TYPE POPS
SAT NIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SUN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUN.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO
CARVE OUT ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHIFT IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN TOWARD A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US MID LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSIVE. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...MID LEVEL WAVES SHOULD LIFT OUT OF
THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARD MID
WEEK. DESPITE BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE WEEK...E-NE LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SUSTAIN COOLER
CONDITIONS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MARINE...

IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORNING FOG
MAY HAMPER NAVIGATION IN THE 6AM TO 10AM TIMEFRAME THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...WINDS AND WAVES WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH 10 TO 25 KNOT SOUTH WINDS. THE LONG FETCH ALONG
LAKE HURON WILL REALIZE WAVE POTENTIAL IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE IN
NORTHERN LAKE HURON...EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
LAKE. FOLLOWING THAT FEATURE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. NEARSHORE AREAS WILL
REMAIN PROTECTED FROM HIGH WINDS AND WAVES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WHERE A HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 627 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MATURE CYCLONE IN THE FORM OF A 988 MB SFC LOW OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL REACH ITS NADIR AROUND 12Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SODAK
WHEN THE HRRR HAS THE PRESSURE DOWN TO 985 MB WITH 12 HR H5 HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS NEB IN EXCESS OF 200 M. DURING THE MORNING THE SYSTEM
WILL START TO OCCLUDE AND BY 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING A 991/2 MB LOW
OVER SE NODAK THAT BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO A 995 MB LOW
EAST OF THE MANITOBA LAKES. THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NW MN WILL
SCOOT QUICKLY OFF INTO SRN CANADA TODAY...WITH AN OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SW MN AROUND 21Z...WILL BE CROSSING INTO WRN WI
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SATURDAY.

IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
BAND ONE WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE SEVERE SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED
ACROSS WRN NEB/KS LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A WAA BAND OF SHOWERS
THAT THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE HOPWRF HAVE BEEN HANDLING PRETTY
CONSISTENTLY OVERNIGHT...SO FOLLOWED THOSE MODELS TO BRING A NARROW
BAND OF HIGHER POPS INTO WRN MN AT 15Z...THAT WORKS OVER TOWARD THE
MN/WI BORDER SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER POPS TO
THE EAST WITH THIS...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING A CONTINUOUS
N-S ORIENTED BAND WORKING ACROSS THE ENTIRE MN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO UP POPS FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN
THUNDER LOOKING LIMITED AS WELL...BUT IT WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLL IN
THE POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS THANKS TO ITS CLOUD COVER AND
ITS LIMITING OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION.

AS FOR THAT SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP...IT WOULD FORM ALONG THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IT REPRESENTS THE
SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY AS WELL. ONE LOOK AT A FORECAST HODOGRAPH
SHOWS THAT ONE THING THAT WILL NOT BE IN QUESTION TODAY IS
SHEAR...LETS JUST SAY IT WILL BE COPIOUS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF TURNING WITHIN JUST THE LOWEST 1-3 KM OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDED BY A LLJ AT H85 THAT WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO OVER 50
KTS OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY GET THE HEART
PUMPING A BIT...A QUICK LOOK AT THE CAPE PROFILE SHOULD QUICKLY CALM
YOU BACK DOWN AS SBCAPE LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 700 J/KG AT
BEST...WITH CAPE PROFILES BEING QUITE SKINNY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE SHALLOW...HENCE THE MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS IN THE SPC SWODY1. THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ORIENTED MORE N-S ACROSS SRN MN...BUT WILL BE ARCING TO MORE
OF E-W ORIENTATION ACROSS WC MN INTO THE SFC LOW OVER SE NODAK. THE
SPC SWODY1 SLIGHT RISK IS CENTERED MORE ON WHERE THE FRONT TAKES ON
MORE OF A LATITUDINAL ORIENTATION...THOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT SCP/STP
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPIN AND THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES LOOKS TO
KEEP THIS AS A WIND/TORNADO THREAT ONLY.

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH A RAPIDLY DECAYING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO ERN
MN/WRN WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
PRIMARY UPPER FORCING WILL BE MOVING UP INTO WRN ONTARIO...WITH NOT
MUCH MORE THAN SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO WORK WITH FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF DECREASING POPS THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO.

WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM WHAT WAS
INHERITED. HOWEVER...WITH THE GFSLAMP SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT
AXN INCREASING TO OVER 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO TACK ON
ANOTHER 4 COUNTIES TO THE NORTH OF THE EXISTING WIND ADVY.

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS
TO SLOW THE FRONTS TIMING BY A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO ENJOY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES ON A
BELOW NORMAL JOURNEY. THERE WILL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS RESULTING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... ALTHOUGH MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THERE IS A CONTINUED SLOWING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT... BROKE THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
POP/WX GRIDS INTO 6 HOUR BLOCKS AND SLOWED THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI OVER WHAT THE CR
EXTEND INDICATED. THIS KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TWIN CITIES UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT AROUND MID WEEK.
THE GFS WOULD KEEP AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF AN
UPPER LOW AND DRAGS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS...PRECIPITATION AND HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT... HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY WITH COOL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

EXPECT TWO POTENTIAL PRECIP BANDS THIS PERIOD. FIRST IS BAND OF
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER ERN NEB/SODAK THAT WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS
MN TERMINALS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR/HOPWRF HAVE HAD A GOOD
HANDEL ON THIS BAND OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...SO USED THEM TO TIME THESE
SHRA ACROSS THE MN TERMINALS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED AND EXPECT
CURRENT TREND OF NO THUNDER TO CONTINUE WITH THIS BATCH OF RAIN.
SECOND POTENTIAL BATCH HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. HOPWRF AND
HIRES-ARW SHOW BAND OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN SODAK AROUND 20Z
AND WILL PUSH ENE TOWARD AXN BY 00Z. MOST WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE WITH FRONT EXPECTED OVER WC/NW MN...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
ISO/SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA...CLEARING THE EAU BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z SAT. FOR
WINDS...MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING TAFS OTHER THAN TO ADD IN THE
VEERING TO THE SW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO LONG BAND OF
SHRA IMPACTING THE FIELD AROUND 21Z BASED ON LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR AND HOPWRF. BASED ON THE ARW/NMM/SPCWRFS...SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2Z AND 6Z. OUTSIDE
OF ANY HEAVIER SHRA ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. FOR
WINDS...GUSTS PROBABLY WILL NOT BECOME MORE CONSISTENT UNTIL 14/15Z
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE HIGH ON FRONTAL TIMING FOR
TONIGHT...THOUGH MAY BE A LITTLE QUICK IN VEERING THE WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 15G25 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W AT 10G15 KTS.
MON....VFR WITH -SHRA/MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS E AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-073>075-082-083-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY AND HEAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. FAIRLY
NARROW 75 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKENING. LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR MODEL SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...WITH BEST
CHANCES LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
WILL EAST/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 15/16Z. WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WINDY CONDITIONS SET UP FOR MOST AREAS BEHIND
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERN TIER
OF COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT MEET OFFICIAL CRITERIA...BUT
IT`S PROBABLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.

COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM WEST/NORTHWEST. TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH
FOR WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND EXITING MONDAY
NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ALREADY HAD 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS AND
IN GENERAL...LEFT THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP POPS UP 5 TO 10
PERCENT BASED ON MODEL CONTINUITY AND TIMING. PRECIP WOULD MOSTLY
BE OUT OF HERE BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST NEXT WEEK INDICATES COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...AND STILL NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNS OF A
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE JUST YET...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD FLIRT WITH MID/UPPER 30S.

DEWALD

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK

A LINE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS WILL BE VERY LIGHT RAIN AND
ENHANCED MID CLOUDS...THOUGH AN MVFR CEILING CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
NORFOLK AS SHOWN BY UPSTREAM REPORTS AT KEAR AND KODX. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

PEARSON

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 934 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE PCPN
CHANCES/COVERAGE...TEMPERATURES AND SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO CANADA OR WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS FAR
WESTERN FA WITH A BAND OF MAINLY SHRA LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF SD
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN FA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO DELAY HEATING THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND SHORT RANGE MODEL FORECAST. MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. RAP
AND HRRR HAVE A BAND OF RAIN ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS FOLLOWING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS SEEMS TO FIT
THE RADAR SHOWING A RAIN BAND CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SD. ADJUSTED
POPS TO DECREASE MENTION OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT
KEPT THEM HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVERE
MENTION BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MUCH WE DESTABILIZE DURING THE
LATE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

RAIN AND ANY SEVERE CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM...ALONG WITH WINDS.

WV LOOP HAS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
ENTERED OUR AREA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE MAIN PRECIP
HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE MAIN LOW. JUDGING FROM
THE RADAR LOOP AND THE RAP/HRRR...THINK WE SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FROM THE RAIN SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON
INSTABILITY...WITH 500-1000 J/KG WHILE SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS
DO NOT GO QUITE AS STRONG WITH SFC CAPE. STILL...WITH THE UPPER
LOW MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AT PEAK HEATING AND THE VERY
STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AND INCLUDED SOME SEVERE IN THE GRIDS. ANY SEVERE WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
SFC LOW. LAMP HAS THE SOUTHERN TIER GETTING UP TO 25-27 KTS
SUSTAINED FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST A
LONG TIME HOWEVER...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE
CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WELL
BEHAVED FOR A WHILE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH...THEN START
BLOWING AGAIN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS LATER PERIOD AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WHEN THERE IS NOT MUCH
MIXING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR BEHIND THE LOW BUT
INCLUDED AN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH IT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO MANITOBA TOMORROW...BUT MODELS BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF IT. THEY SEEM TO HAVE
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE WETTER ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH SOME PRECIP ALL THE WAY DOWN TOWARDS THE SD BORDER.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PRETTY COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPS...EXPANDED THE
LOW POPS WE HAD GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY QUIET DOWN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
IN OUR NORTHEAST...BUT OVERALL A DRIER TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS BY SUNDAY...AND MODELS START BRINGING IN SOME PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LEFT THE LOW POPS WE HAD FOR
SUNDAY...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL
PATTERN THOUGH TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL INCONSISTENT FROM THE
SLOWER 00Z ECMWF TO THE MIDDLE 00Z GEM TO MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z GFS.
NONE THE LESS AREA TO SEE THE NORTHERN PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS NEBRASKA MONDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON ITS NORTHWARD EXTENT WITH THE SOUTHERN VALLEY VERY
LIKELY AND JUST A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA FOR
RAIN IN THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SHOWERS LINGER LONGER ON THE
SLOWER EC AND GEM INTO TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH A 500MB TROUGH PERSISTING OR REINFORCED ON THURSDAY
WITH A CHC OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

CIGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. KDVL
WILL SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY ON BUT THE OTHER SITES WILL
STAY DRY UNTIL LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS TO VIS BUT SOME BRIEF DROPS TO 3-5SM
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS...THEY WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 654 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND SHORT RANGE MODEL FORECAST. MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. RAP
AND HRRR HAVE A BAND OF RAIN ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS FOLLOWING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS SEEMS TO FIT
THE RADAR SHOWING A RAIN BAND CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SD. ADJUSTED
POPS TO DECREASE MENTION OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT
KEPT THEM HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVERE
MENTION BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MUCH WE DESTABILIZE DURING THE
LATE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

RAIN AND ANY SEVERE CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM...ALONG WITH WINDS.

WV LOOP HAS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
ENTERED OUR AREA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE MAIN PRECIP
HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE MAIN LOW. JUDGING FROM
THE RADAR LOOP AND THE RAP/HRRR...THINK WE SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FROM THE RAIN SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON
INSTABILITY...WITH 500-1000 J/KG WHILE SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS
DO NOT GO QUITE AS STRONG WITH SFC CAPE. STILL...WITH THE UPPER
LOW MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AT PEAK HEATING AND THE VERY
STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AND INCLUDED SOME SEVERE IN THE GRIDS. ANY SEVERE WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
SFC LOW. LAMP HAS THE SOUTHERN TIER GETTING UP TO 25-27 KTS
SUSTAINED FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST A
LONG TIME HOWEVER...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE
CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WELL
BEHAVED FOR A WHILE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH...THEN START
BLOWING AGAIN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS LATER PERIOD AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WHEN THERE IS NOT MUCH
MIXING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR BEHIND THE LOW BUT
INCLUDED AN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH IT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO MANITOBA TOMORROW...BUT MODELS BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF IT. THEY SEEM TO HAVE
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE WETTER ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH SOME PRECIP ALL THE WAY DOWN TOWARDS THE SD BORDER.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PRETTY COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPS...EXPANDED THE
LOW POPS WE HAD GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY QUIET DOWN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
IN OUR NORTHEAST...BUT OVERALL A DRIER TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS BY SUNDAY...AND MODELS START BRINGING IN SOME PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LEFT THE LOW POPS WE HAD FOR
SUNDAY...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL
PATTERN THOUGH TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL INCONSISTENT FROM THE
SLOWER 00Z ECMWF TO THE MIDDLE 00Z GEM TO MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z GFS.
NONE THE LESS AREA TO SEE THE NORTHERN PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS NEBRASKA MONDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON ITS NORTHWARD EXTENT WITH THE SOUTHERN VALLEY VERY
LIKELY AND JUST A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA FOR
RAIN IN THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SHOWERS LINGER LONGER ON THE
SLOWER EC AND GEM INTO TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH A 500MB TROUGH PERSISTING OR REINFORCED ON THURSDAY
WITH A CHC OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

CIGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. KDVL
WILL SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY ON BUT THE OTHER SITES WILL
STAY DRY UNTIL LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS TO VIS BUT SOME BRIEF DROPS TO 3-5SM
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS...THEY WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1002 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL STAY
ANCHORED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CHANNEL A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH LIGHTER RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. UPPER LVL RIDGING IS LIKELY TO
BUILD INTO PA EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING FAIR WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z SAT...FROM FULTON AND
HUNTINGDON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO LEBANON AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR STREAMS...CREEKS...AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS IN CITIES AND TOWNS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL APPROX 19-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ANOTHER SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN
EXTENDING IN AN ARC FROM SCHUYLKILL COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
DAUPHIN AND ADAMS COUNTIES. BACK EDGE OF THIS AREA IS RAPIDLY
PUSHING INTO LANCASTER COUNTY PRESENTLY...BUT THIS SURGE SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5" TO AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN AND ARE ALREADY COVERED BY AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS.

NEAR TO SHORT TERM TRENDS ARE ENCOURAGING...AS OFFSHORE FEEDER
BANDS APPEAR TO BE ORIENTING THEMSELVES MORE EAST TO WEST AND
FOCUSING ON AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. RUC13 AND NAM12
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS OBSERVATION...TRACKING THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY TO THE MD BORDER...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO
LOCALLY 2 INCHES INDICATED STRADDLED THE PA/MD BORDER (ADAMS AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES).

SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
RIVER VALLEY...AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS CURRENT WARNING HEADLINES RUN TO ~19
TO ~20Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET/HIGH PWATS REMAIN FOCUSED OVR THE LWR
SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SCENT PENN THROUGH THIS EVENING BASED ON
THE LATEST SREF...JUSTIFYING NEAR 100 POPS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A BLEND OF MDL QPF
/AND RADAR TRENDS/ SUGGESTS THAT TWO-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
WELL IN EXCESS OF THE MAX ENSEMBLE PLUMES BY LATE TODAY...AND
SHOULD BE APPROACHING AN INCREDIBLE TOTAL 7-8 INCHES ACRS PORTIONS
OF THE LWR SUSQ...ESPECIALLY INVOF KMDT.

A GENERAL STORM TOTAL OF 2-4 INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS COUNTIES JUST
WEST OF THE MIDDLE SUSQ MAINSTEM...AND THROUGHOUT THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE JUNIATA BASIN. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN /ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
END TOTALS/ MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS...THUS THE
REASON FOR EXPANDING THE FLOOD WATCH A FEW LAYERS OF COUNTIES TO
THE NW OF THE ORIGINAL AREA.

LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARREN COUNTY IN THE NW
MTNS...AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAURELS.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60F TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA...WHERE A RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL FALL.
MEANWHILE...WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE
LACK OF RAIN AND A DOWNSLOPING EAST WIND COULD PUSH READINGS TO
THE U60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS WESTERN WARREN CO.

THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TO NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MAIN PLUME OF
DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MASON/DIXON LINE. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING INTO CENTRAL PENN
FROM NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WILL CREATE A MORE
SHALLOW/LOW CLOUD REGIME WITH JUST AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTNS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE U40S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE
MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70ACROSS
THE NW MTNS WHERE SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS VERY GRADUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASING TREND IN THE RAINFALL...BUT STILL MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
DRIFTING WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA STUBBORNLY KEEP A LINGERING EASTERLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL PA THRU THE WEEKEND. SO DIDN/T CHANGE SAT/SUN FORECASTS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS CHC FOR LINGERING LGT RAIN/AND ESP DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SC COUNTIES THRU SUNDAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD RESULT IN MILD NIGHTS...AND HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S THIS WEEKEND /WITH COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF WITH ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVAP COOLING FROM
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.

GRADUAL TRANSITION TO BRIGHTER AND DRIER CONDS ARE LIKELY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHEN WE FINALLY LOSE THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWER CLOUDS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPS COPIOUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MON BEFORE THE
RIDGE FINALLY WINS OUT WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.

MODELS DIFFER BY MID LATE WEEK ON DETAILS AROUND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT. BUT LOOKS LIKE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES WED IN THE WEST AND THU FOR ALL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES OFF THE NC/VA COAST COMBINED WITH AREA OF HIGH PRES
IN NRN NEW ENGLAND/SERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG/MOIST
EAST/NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. RADAR SHOWS
PERSISTENT MOD RAIN BAND WITH EMBEDDED +RA FROM SRN NJ FOCUSING
RIGHT INTO CNTRL AND SERN PA. EXPECT MVFR-LIFR CONDS TO CONTINUE
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT BFD...WHERE -RA HAS FINALLY STARTED TO FALL FROM
10KFT MID-DECK. ANY IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW/LIMITED WITH MVFR
CONDS LKLY INTO THE AFTN ACRS CNTRL AND ESP ERN SXNS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...MVFR TO IFR IN AREAS OF RAIN/DZ.
TUE...VFR TO MVFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3.5 TO 5.5 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WITH 1 TO 2.5
INCHES FALLING SO FAR JUST SOUTHEAST OF A KAOO...TO KUNV...AND KSEG
LINE.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OF AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PENN...AND
1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SPOKES OF ENERGY...AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF HEAVY
RAIN/LOW-TOPPED TSRA SURGE WNWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STATIONARY UPPER LOW LOCATED
NEAR KORF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY RAINFALL OF 4.02 INCHES WAS SET AT HARRISBURG
YESTERDAY 10/10 2013. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 1.50 INCHES
SET BACK IN 1894. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT
HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ026>028-035-036-
050-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
HYDROLOGY...CTP
CLIMATE...CTP







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WIND SPEEDS AND
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP CIGS ABOVE 2000FT
AND THIS IS CONFIRMED IN RUC MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS. STRATUS
WILL LIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON TO VFR BUT CUMULUS CIG NEAR 050 WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A RETURN OF MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 15KT TODAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN IMPACTING AVIATION INTERESTS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013/
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP HAS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
THE EAST COAST...THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. THE
LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 36
HOURS AS IT IS TRAPPED TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. WITH LITTLE DEVIATION EXPECTED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BE FORCED TO MOVE NORTH INTO CANADA
LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL
SOUTH TODAY BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE CWA TOMORROW. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN PLACES NORTH TEXAS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND.

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
WEAK WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND A FEW OF THE HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAA. WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A 10 POP. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE SLOWING DOWN ITS FORWARD
MOVEMENT IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE
PRECIP AMOUNTS THOUGH AND THEREFORE IS TOO HIGH WITH ITS POPS.
WENT CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/WRF GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...THE WEAK LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH NO SIGNS
OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE
EXTREMELY STEEP AS WELL SUPPORTING HIGH VALUES OF 0-3 KM CAPE. ALTHOUGH
THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE CWA IN A
5 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD BE BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE BEST
LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD DWINDLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS IN THIS
TIMEFRAME. LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP AND SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD
BE VERY LOW.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MOVING EAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THIS WILL BE THE
CATALYST FOR RAIN CHANCES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY FOR THE AREA. YESTERDAY
THE ECMWF HELD UP A PIECE OF ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH CAUSED
THE ASSOCIATED FROPA TO BE TWO DAYS BEHIND THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND
TH ECMWF IS NOW SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE IMPRESSIVE AND THE GFS IS PROGGING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO EXCEED 2 INCHES WHICH IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF
OBSERVED VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING TOO FAST AND STORM MOTION VECTORS ARE 260
DEGREES WHICH IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. FRONTOGENESIS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITHIN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER. WITH
HIGH MOISTURE...TRAINING OF STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
PERHAPS SOME BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT...PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD BE UPWARD OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH THE
FRONT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER...THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WITH THE
FRONT THAT COULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE OR DECREASE THESE TOTALS.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40S/50S
ONCE AGAIN.

HAMPSHIRE

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  72  88  70  85 /   5  30  40  40  50
WACO, TX              86  71  89  69  85 /  10  20  50  40  50
PARIS, TX             85  68  85  67  82 /   5  30  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            84  69  86  68  83 /   5  30  30  40  50
MCKINNEY, TX          85  71  87  68  84 /   5  30  30  40  50
DALLAS, TX            86  73  88  73  86 /   5  30  40  40  50
TERRELL, TX           86  72  87  69  84 /   5  30  40  40  50
CORSICANA, TX         85  72  85  69  84 /  10  20  50  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            85  71  86  69  84 /  10  20  50  40  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  69  87  68  82 /   5  20  30  40  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 302 PM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IS LIFTING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. THE LAST WAVE
IN NW FLOW PASSED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER
EFFECT. EARLY AFTERNOON HEATING HAS PRODUCED CONVECTIVE CELLS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE STAYED BELOW
THE -20C ISOTHERM SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM RUNS INDICATE
ONLY ANOTHER 0-2 CONVECTIVE INCHES WILL FALL IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. ALL SHOWERS TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WITH VERY WET
SOILS THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FRIDAY MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THE MODELED RH VALUES DO NOT SHOW LARGE AREAS OF MORNING
SATURATION THOUGH SO WILL LET THE NIGHT SHIFT REACT TO LOCALIZED
FOG IF NEEDED.

WEAK RIDGING PASSES QUICKLY ON SATURDAY BACKING THE FLOW ALOFT TO
SW. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN 3-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL NEAR SEATTLE SATURDAY MORNING
AND DIGS TO NEAR RENO SATURDAY NIGHT. SW MTN WINDS STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AND MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INVADE NE UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF TAKING ON A POSITIVE TILT BY THE DIGGING
JET ALOFT. THE DOWNSTREAM PORTION OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING OVER
OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEING ENHANCED BY
A JET MAX ALOFT. THETA SURFACES DO NOT SHOW A STRONG FEED OF
MOISTURE INTO THIS SYSTEM BUT PWATS DO PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL
JUST UNDER HALF OF AN INCH AS THE LIFT MOVES OVERHEAD. POPS WILL
BE TRENDING UPWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN EARLY ON...AS TOP DOWN SATURATION WE WORKING TO GET
PRECIPITATION TO THE GROUND. MID LEVEL TEMPS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS
WILL AGAIN BE AOA 12000 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS...AND CLOSER TO 10000 FEET OVER THE UINTAS. WEAK UPRIGHT
CONVECTION AND THE STRONGER ASCENT MAY BRING THESE LEVELS DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY BUT DO NOW SEE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS AT THE PASSES
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ASCENT WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS
OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE JET MOVES EAST AND THE TROF LIFTS
NORTHEAST. COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROF LOOKS TO DROP SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO 7000 FEET OR SO BUT SOUNDING IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ATTM OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE
FAVORED FOR 3 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY LOOKS TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THANKS
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DECENT MIXING. BEHIND THE TROF TEMPERATURES
COOL SOME DEGREES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL WHERE THEY LOOK TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEK.

THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EJECTING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ENERGY DROPPING BEHIND THIS LOW LOOKS TO CARVE OUT A
LINGERING TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE EURO SOLN HAS BEEN
HINTING AT THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE GFS REMAINS MUCH TOO
PROGRESSIVE. DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A STRONGLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAVORS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. DETAILS STILL NOT DIALED IN BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE CWA THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE MAY BE A
DOWNTURN TO PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT HIGH
LATITUDE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THROUGH MOISTURE STARVED THE
NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER SNOWFALL PRODUCTION GOING INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
THROUGH 03Z THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY IMPACTING KASE...KEGE...KSBS
AND KHDN. LOCALIZED MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG
MAY THREATEN LOCAL FLIGHT OPERATIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 157 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF NORFOLK WILL EDGE NORTH TO THE
DELMARVA COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE STALLING. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND FORCE THE LOW BACK OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN ITS EXPECTED TO TRUNDLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES
MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD
JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE
APPALACHIANS LATE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A MORNING IT HAS BEEN THUS FAR ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METRO
AREA. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NEW CASTLE
AND CHESTER COUNTIES FOR THE SMALLER RIVERS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW DELAWARE JUST SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH
MULTIPLE OTHERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT TOUCHED OFF ALL THESE HEAVY
STORMS HAS MOVED WELL WEST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME, AS ANOTHER
WAVE BEGINS TO COME ONSHORE NOW.

DO NOT THINK THIS WAVE WILL BE AS VOLATILE AS ITS PREDECESSOR
THOUGH THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA WITH MESOSCALE BANDING TAKING PLACE. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO HINT AT A BETTER TROWAL LIKE FEATURE ACCOMPANYING
THIS BANDING WHICH WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF LIFTING AND
POSSIBLY SLANTWISE CONVECTION TAKING PLACE, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY, PERHAPS DIMINISHING SOME
BY EVENING. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ANY
HEAVY RAIN COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH TIDE WOULD JUST ADD TO
DRAINAGE PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH AND MID 60S SOUTH, WHICH IS ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO START PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY START THE PROCESS
OF NUDGING THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OFF THE VA/NC COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE, BUT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW
INCHES SOUTH, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOO.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM LIKELY TO CHC IN THE NORTH...AND
FROM CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH, AND PERHAPS IN THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMBINATION OF THE WRF-NMMB AND GFS LOOKED TO FIT THE 500MB
PATTERN THE BEST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE BOTH MODELS
INITIALIZATION LOOKED A BIT TOO EAST IN THE ROCKIES. AT 925MB
AND 850MB THE GFS LOOKED BETTER.

IF THE SUITE OF LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUNS DEPICTED THE DARKEST DEPTHS
OF MORDOR, THE LAST TWO SOUNDING RUNS ARE OFFERING A BIT MORE
ENCOURAGEMENT FOR A HASTIER EXIT OF THIS ATLANTIC SYSTEM. MAYBE
NO NEED TO STATE THE OBVIOUS AS TO HOW PETULANT THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN TO FORECAST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PCPN HAS FAILED TO REACH ITS GEOGRAPHICAL GOAL, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO MEET THE IMPROVED TIMING ABOUT HALFWAY. THIS
PACKAGE IS CLOSER TO THE GFS TIMING, NOT AS OPTIMISTIC AS THE WRF-
NMMB FOR NOW OR AS DOUR AS THE UKMET.

ON SATURDAY, REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF PCPN, THERE IS GENERAL
MODELING CONSENSUS THAT THE LARGER SCALE FORCING AND FEATURES ARE
WANING. WE STILL HAVE A LLJ COMING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND THE FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST BELOW 700MB. WE ARE LACKING THE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS A SEMBLANCE OF 700MB SPEED MAX AND
FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE IS NOW LIMITED TO THE LOWER MID LEVELS.
THIS ALL POINTS TO LIGHTER PCPN OVERALL. HIEST POPS ARE TIED TO
WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK FCST LLVL THETA ADVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AS TO PCPN OCCURRING IS
WEAKER FARTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA.

THE CAVEAT REMAINS IN THE BOUNCINESS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CONVECTION (WHICH I UNDERSOLD FOR TODAY) SHOULD BE KNOCKING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. IT IS FAIRLY WARM AT 925MB AND 850MB, BUT THE FLOW IS
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD TEMPER MAX TEMPS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO STAT
GUIDANCE AND NOT MUCH REMOVED FROM OCEAN TEMPS. FAR FAR NORTH IF
MORE SUN IS PRESENT, WE MAY BE TOO LOW.

WE KNOCK PCPN CHANCES DOWN ANOTHER PEG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FCST
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET CONFINED TO A LOWER LEVEL IN OUR AIR MASS
AS ITS FORECAST TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PARTIALLY TIED TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT TOWARD THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AS
CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRESENT.

ON SUNDAY, POPS WERE CONFINED TO THE MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUN
CAN OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AS THE FLOW IS STILL
ONSHORE AND STILL RICH IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT
ON SUNDAY IS NOT THAT MUCH WEAKER THAN SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS LEANED
TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE.

LIKELY TOO MUCH WIND SUNDAY NIGHT (EXCEPT MAYBE FAR NORTHWEST) TO
RADIATE. EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT IN SKY COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES. COLUMBUS DAY IS PCPN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT WEAKENS IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEHIND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVE US A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
PSBLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
AS THE APPROACHING AIR MASS IS NOT THAT COOL. WEDNESDAY`S PCPN
CHANCES MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST BASED ON THE INITIALIZATION WEST.

A BETTER AND MORE CONFIDENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD COME AROUND
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY AT ABE AND RDG, WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, DUE
TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EMBEDDED PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT THE CONVEYOR BELTS
OF RAIN ABATE, AND CLOUDS START TO LIFT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, BUT THEIR SPEEDS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.


OUTLOOK..
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. SOME IFR
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ON SATURDAY AND ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHEST
SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH AIRPORTS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE
95 BY SUNDAY AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING FROM THE INTERSTATE
95 AIRPORTS SOUTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHEST SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE UPPER BAY WAS CANCELLED AS THE GUSTS HAVE
SETTLED BELOW 25 KNOTS, THOUGH AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE IS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSWHERE ON THE FORECAST
WATERS...EVEN IF THE WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 25 KT...SEAS ARE STILL
RUNNING HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE WEEKEND...SO THE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
AND LOWER DE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SUB
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO PART OR ALL
OF SUNDAY WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OUTLOOKED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ON THE OCEAN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS ARE
OUTLOOKED TO END DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITHIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS PUSHED FURTHER UP THE DELAWARE BAY
TO INCLUDE NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DE AND SALEM COUNTY, NJ. WE EXPECT
THE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING TO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE TIDES THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MONMOUTH AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES (SANDY HOOK AND THE RARITAN BAY) AS DEPARTURES
ARE WELL BELOW WHERE THEY NEED TO BE AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH TIDE
ACTUALLY HASN`T REACHED ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE PAST 4 HIGH TIDE
CYCLES AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES DID NOT SEE THOSE AREAS
REACHING MINOR TIDAL LEVELS.

WE CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...THIS TIME THROUGH THE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE OCEAN FRONT, AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. GIVEN THE CONTINUING ONSHORE
FLOW, BACK BAY AND INLET TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD BE GREATER THAN
AVERAGE.

ONLY AN INCREMENTAL EASING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AT THIS TIME. IF COASTAL FLOODING WERE TO
OCCUR, IT WOULD BE TOWARD THE LOW END OF MINOR.

THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ANOTHER PEG ON SUNDAY. THUS
THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST MAY NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. WE ARE NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE REST OF THE COAST WHERE THE
PRESENT ADVISORY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
REGARDLESS TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LESS ON SUNDAY. ALONG THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, LATEST MDL GUIDANCE KEEPS US CLOSE TO MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY CBOFS AND MDL
GUIDANCE KEEP CAMBRIDGE BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS, SO WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING PROBLEMS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 154 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF NORFOLK WILL EDGE NORTH TO THE
DELMARVA COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE STALLING. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND FORCE THE LOW BACK OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN ITS EXPECTED TO TRUNDLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES
MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD
JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE
APPALACHIANS LATE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A MORNING IT HAS BEEN THUS FAR ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METRO
AREA. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NEW CASTLE
AND CHESTER COUNTIES FOR THE SMALLER RIVERS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW DELAWARE JUST SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH
MULTIPLE OTHERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT TOUCHED OFF ALL THESE HEAVY
STORMS HAS MOVED WELL WEST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME, AS ANOTHER
WAVE BEGINS TO COME ONSHORE NOW.

DO NOT THINK THIS WAVE WILL BE AS VOLATILE AS ITS PREDECESSOR
THOUGH THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA WITH MESOSCALE BANDING TAKING PLACE. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO HINT AT A BETTER TROWAL LIKE FEATURE ACCOMPANYING
THIS BANDING WHICH WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF LIFTING AND
POSSIBLY SLANTWISE CONVECTION TAKING PLACE, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY, PERHAPS DIMINISHING SOME
BY EVENING. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ANY
HEAVY RAIN COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH TIDE WOULD JUST ADD TO
DRAINAGE PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH AND MID 60S SOUTH, WHICH IS ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO START PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY START THE PROCESS
OF NUDGING THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OFF THE VA/NC COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE, BUT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW
INCHES SOUTH, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOO.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM LIKELY TO CHC IN THE NORTH...AND
FROM CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH, AND PERHAPS IN THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMBINATION OF THE WRF-NMMB AND GFS LOOKED TO FIT THE 500MB
PATTERN THE BEST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE BOTH MODELS
INITIALIZATION LOOKED A BIT TOO EAST IN THE ROCKIES. AT 925MB
AND 850MB THE GFS LOOKED BETTER.

IF THE SUITE OF LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUNS DEPICTED THE DARKEST DEPTHS
OF MORDOR, THE LAST TWO SOUNDING RUNS ARE OFFERING A BIT MORE
ENCOURAGEMENT FOR A HASTIER EXIT OF THIS ATLANTIC SYSTEM. MAYBE
NO NEED TO STATE THE OBVIOUS AS TO HOW PETULANT THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN TO FORECAST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PCPN HAS FAILED TO REACH ITS GEOGRAPHICAL GOAL, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO MEET THE IMPROVED TIMING ABOUT HALFWAY. THIS
PACKAGE IS CLOSER TO THE GFS TIMING, NOT AS OPTIMISTIC AS THE WRF-
NMMB FOR NOW OR AS DOUR AS THE UKMET.

ON SATURDAY, REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF PCPN, THERE IS GENERAL
MODELING CONSENSUS THAT THE LARGER SCALE FORCING AND FEATURES ARE
WANING. WE STILL HAVE A LLJ COMING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND THE FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST BELOW 700MB. WE ARE LACKING THE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS A SEMBLANCE OF 700MB SPEED MAX AND
FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE IS NOW LIMITED TO THE LOWER MID LEVELS.
THIS ALL POINTS TO LIGHTER PCPN OVERALL. HIEST POPS ARE TIED TO
WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK FCST LLVL THETA ADVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AS TO PCPN OCCURRING IS
WEAKER FARTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA.

THE CAVEAT REMAINS IN THE BOUNCINESS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CONVECTION (WHICH I UNDERSOLD FOR TODAY) SHOULD BE KNOCKING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. IT IS FAIRLY WARM AT 925MB AND 850MB, BUT THE FLOW IS
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD TEMPER MAX TEMPS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO STAT
GUIDANCE AND NOT MUCH REMOVED FROM OCEAN TEMPS. FAR FAR NORTH IF
MORE SUN IS PRESENT, WE MAY BE TOO LOW.

WE KNOCK PCPN CHANCES DOWN ANOTHER PEG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FCST
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET CONFINED TO A LOWER LEVEL IN OUR AIR MASS
AS ITS FORECAST TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PARTIALLY TIED TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT TOWARD THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AS
CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRESENT.

ON SUNDAY, POPS WERE CONFINED TO THE MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUN
CAN OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AS THE FLOW IS STILL
ONSHORE AND STILL RICH IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT
ON SUNDAY IS NOT THAT MUCH WEAKER THAN SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS LEANED
TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE.

LIKELY TOO MUCH WIND SUNDAY NIGHT (EXCEPT MAYBE FAR NORTHWEST) TO
RADIATE. EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT IN SKY COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES. COLUMBUS DAY IS PCPN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT WEAKENS IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEHIND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVE US A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
PSBLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
AS THE APPROACHING AIR MASS IS NOT THAT COOL. WEDNESDAY`S PCPN
CHANCES MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST BASED ON THE INITIALIZATION WEST.

A BETTER AND MORE CONFIDENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD COME AROUND
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY AT ABE AND RDG, WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, DUE
TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EMBEDDED PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT THE CONVEYOR BELTS
OF RAIN ABATE, AND CLOUDS START TO LIFT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, BUT THEIR SPEEDS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.


OUTLOOK..
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. SOME IFR
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ON SATURDAY AND ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHEST
SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH AIRPORTS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE
95 BY SUNDAY AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING FROM THE INTERSTATE
95 AIRPORTS SOUTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHEST SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE UPPER BAY WAS CANCELLED AS THE GUSTS HAVE
SETTLED BELOW 25 KNOTS, THOUGH AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE IS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSWHERE ON THE FORECAST
WATERS...EVEN IF THE WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 25 KT...SEAS ARE STILL
RUNNING HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE WEEKEND...SO THE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
AND LOWER DE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SUB
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO PART OR ALL
OF SUNDAY WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OUTLOOKED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ON THE OCEAN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS ARE
OUTLOOKED TO END DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITHIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS PUSHED FURTHER UP THE DELAWARE BAY
TO INCLUDE NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DE AND SALEM COUNTY, NJ. WE EXPECT
THE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING TO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE TIDES THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MONMOUTH AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES (SANDY HOOK AND THE RARITAN BAY) AS DEPARTURES
ARE WELL BELOW WHERE THEY NEED TO BE AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH TIDE
ACTUALLY HASN`T REACHED ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE PAST 4 HIGH TIDE
CYCLES AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES DID NOT SEE THOSE AREAS
REACHING MINOR TIDAL LEVELS.

WE CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...THIS TIME THROUGH THE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE OCEAN FRONT, AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. GIVEN THE CONTINUING ONSHORE
FLOW, BACK BAY AND INLET TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD BE GREATER THAN
AVERAGE.

ONLY AN INCREMENTAL EASING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AT THIS TIME. IF COASTAL FLOODING WERE TO
OCCUR, IT WOULD BE TOWARD THE LOW END OF MINOR.

THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ANOTHER PEG ON SUNDAY. THUS
THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST MAY NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. WE ARE NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE REST OF THE COAST WHERE THE
PRESENT ADVISORY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
REGARDLESS TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LESS ON SUNDAY. ALONG THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, LATEST MDL GUIDANCE KEEPS US CLOSE TO MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY CBOFS AND MDL
GUIDANCE KEEP CAMBRIDGE BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS, SO WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING PROBLEMS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 1246 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF NORFOLK WILL EDGE NORTH TO THE
DELMARVA COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE STALLING. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SINK SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND FORCE THE LOW BACK OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN ITS EXPECTED TO TRUNDLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES
MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD
JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE
APPALACHIANS LATE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A MORNING IT HAS BEEN THUS FAR ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METRO
AREA. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NEW CASTLE
AND CHESTER COUNTIES FOR THE SMALLER RIVERS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW DELAWARE JUST SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH
MULTIPLE OTHERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT TOUCHED OFF ALL THESE HEAVY
STORMS HAS MOVED WELL WEST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME, AS ANOTHER
WAVE BEGINS TO COME ONSHORE NOW.

DO NOT THINK THIS WAVE WILL BE AS VOLATILE AS ITS PREDECESSOR
THOUGH THE RUC IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE METRO AREA WITH MESOSCALE BANDING TAKING PLACE. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO HINT AT A BETTER TROWAL LIKE FEATURE ACCOMPANYING
THIS BANDING WHICH WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF LIFTING AND
POSSIBLY SLANTWISE CONVECTION TAKING PLACE, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY, PERHAPS DIMINISHING SOME
BY EVENING. WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ANY
HEAVY RAIN COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH TIDE WOULD JUST ADD TO
DRAINAGE PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH AND MID 60S SOUTH, WHICH IS ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO START PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY START THE PROCESS
OF NUDGING THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OFF THE VA/NC COAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE, BUT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW
INCHES SOUTH, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOO.
POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM LIKELY TO CHC IN THE NORTH...AND
FROM CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH, AND PERHAPS IN THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COMBINATION OF THE WRF-NMMB AND GFS LOOKED TO FIT THE 500MB
PATTERN THE BEST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE BOTH MODELS
INITIALIZATION LOOKED A BIT TOO EAST IN THE ROCKIES. AT 925MB
AND 850MB THE GFS LOOKED BETTER.

IF THE SUITE OF LAST NIGHT`S MODEL RUNS DEPICTED THE DARKEST DEPTHS
OF MORDOR, THE LAST TWO SOUNDING RUNS ARE OFFERING A BIT MORE
ENCOURAGEMENT FOR A HASTIER EXIT OF THIS ATLANTIC SYSTEM. MAYBE
NO NEED TO STATE THE OBVIOUS AS TO HOW PETULANT THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN TO FORECAST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PCPN HAS FAILED TO REACH ITS GEOGRAPHICAL GOAL, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO MEET THE IMPROVED TIMING ABOUT HALFWAY. THIS
PACKAGE IS CLOSER TO THE GFS TIMING, NOT AS OPTIMISTIC AS THE WRF-
NMMB FOR NOW OR AS DOUR AS THE UKMET.

ON SATURDAY, REGARDLESS OF THE EXTENT OF PCPN, THERE IS GENERAL
MODELING CONSENSUS THAT THE LARGER SCALE FORCING AND FEATURES ARE
WANING. WE STILL HAVE A LLJ COMING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND THE FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST BELOW 700MB. WE ARE LACKING THE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS A SEMBLANCE OF 700MB SPEED MAX AND
FCST QVEC CONVERGENCE IS NOW LIMITED TO THE LOWER MID LEVELS.
THIS ALL POINTS TO LIGHTER PCPN OVERALL. HIEST POPS ARE TIED TO
WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK FCST LLVL THETA ADVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE AS TO PCPN OCCURRING IS
WEAKER FARTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA.

THE CAVEAT REMAINS IN THE BOUNCINESS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
CONVECTION (WHICH I UNDERSOLD FOR TODAY) SHOULD BE KNOCKING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. IT IS FAIRLY WARM AT 925MB AND 850MB, BUT THE FLOW IS
ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD TEMPER MAX TEMPS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO STAT
GUIDANCE AND NOT MUCH REMOVED FROM OCEAN TEMPS. FAR FAR NORTH IF
MORE SUN IS PRESENT, WE MAY BE TOO LOW.

WE KNOCK PCPN CHANCES DOWN ANOTHER PEG ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FCST
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET CONFINED TO A LOWER LEVEL IN OUR AIR MASS
AS ITS FORECAST TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PARTIALLY TIED TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT TOWARD THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AS
CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRESENT.

ON SUNDAY, POPS WERE CONFINED TO THE MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUN
CAN OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA AS THE FLOW IS STILL
ONSHORE AND STILL RICH IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT
ON SUNDAY IS NOT THAT MUCH WEAKER THAN SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS LEANED
TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE.

LIKELY TOO MUCH WIND SUNDAY NIGHT (EXCEPT MAYBE FAR NORTHWEST) TO
RADIATE. EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT IN SKY COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES. COLUMBUS DAY IS PCPN FREE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT WEAKENS IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEHIND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA AND
GIVE US A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
PSBLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
AS THE APPROACHING AIR MASS IS NOT THAT COOL. WEDNESDAY`S PCPN
CHANCES MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST BASED ON THE INITIALIZATION WEST.

A BETTER AND MORE CONFIDENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD COME AROUND
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY AT ABE AND RDG, WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, DUE
TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND EMBEDDED PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT THE CONVEYOR BELTS
OF RAIN ABATE, AND CLOUDS START TO LIFT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, BUT THEIR SPEEDS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.


OUTLOOK..
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY MVFR. SOME IFR
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ON SATURDAY AND ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHEST
SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM THE NORTH TO
SOUTH AIRPORTS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE
95 BY SUNDAY AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING FROM THE INTERSTATE
95 AIRPORTS SOUTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHEST SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE UPPER BAY WAS CANCELLED AS THE GUSTS HAVE
SETTLED BELOW 25 KNOTS, THOUGH AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE IS STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSWHERE ON THE FORECAST
WATERS...EVEN IF THE WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 25 KT...SEAS ARE STILL
RUNNING HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE WEEKEND...SO THE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN
AND LOWER DE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SUB
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD.

ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO PART OR ALL
OF SUNDAY WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OUTLOOKED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ON THE OCEAN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS ARE
OUTLOOKED TO END DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND WITHIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MONMOUTH AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES (SANDY HOOK AND THE RARITAN BAY) AS DEPARTURES
ARE WELL BELOW WHERE THEY NEED TO BE AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH TIDE
ACTUALLY HASN`T REACHED ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE PAST 4 HIGH TIDE
CYCLES AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES DID NOT SEE THOSE AREAS
REACHING MINOR TIDAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN, NOT CURRENTLY IN THE ADVISORY, IS THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE DELAWARE BAY. WITH ALL THE RAIN THAT FELL
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING, COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW,
MINOR THRESHOLDS MAY BE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL THE FRESH
WATER COMING DOWN THE RIVER AND OTHER TRIBUTARIES WILL NOT DRAIN
WELL.

WE CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...THIS TIME THROUGH
THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE OCEAN FRONT, AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. GIVEN THE CONTINUING ONSHORE
FLOW, BACK BAY AND INLET TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD BE GREATER THAN
AVERAGE.

ONLY AN INCREMENTAL EASING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AT THIS TIME. IF COASTAL FLOODING WERE TO
OCCUR, IT WOULD BE TOWARD THE LOW END OF MINOR.

THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ANOTHER PEG ON SUNDAY. THUS
THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST MAY NOT HAVE ADDITIONAL MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. WE ARE NOT AS SURE ABOUT THE REST OF THE COAST WHERE THE
PRESENT ADVISORY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
REGARDLESS TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LESS ON SUNDAY. ALONG THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, LATEST MDL GUIDANCE KEEPS US CLOSE TO MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS. ON CHESAPEAKE BAY CBOFS AND MDL
GUIDANCE KEEP CAMBRIDGE BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS, SO WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING PROBLEMS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA
MARINE...GIGI/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 110 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. FORECAST
BECOMES CHALLENGING OVERNIGHT WITH FOG CONCERNS...AS MOISTURE
ATTEMPTS TO STREAM IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...COULD EASILY
JUST SEE A MID DECK OF CLOUDS ARRIVE...WHICH WOULD MITIGATE THE FOG
THREAT. ALSO...THE GRADIENT IS A BIT STRONGER TONIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH SOME MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ERIE...HAVE
ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG MENTION AT DTW...WITH IFR FOG AT YIP. IF FOG
DOES DEVELOP...A LIFTING STRATUS DECK COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...BUT PREFERENCE IS FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOG TRENDS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING THIS MORNING AS A FEW OBSERVATION
SITES HAVE EVEN IMPROVED ON VISIBILITIES. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
EXPANSION OF THE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LOWER AND THE
EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA. RUC13 SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SUPPORTS A RIPENING NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT AS DAWN
APPROACHES. WILL TOE THE LINE WITH REGARDS TO THE AREAS TO PATCHY
DENSE WORDING THE EVENING CREW INTRODUCED.

ANOTHER DAY OF PROTOTYPICAL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. LITTLE TO NO THERMAL
ADVECTIONS IN STATIC NEAR TERM REGIME SUPPORTS A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH FULL
INSOLATION WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO ON MOS CONSENSUS.

SURFACE TRAJECTORIES TONIGHT SUGGESTS SEMICH WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LIGHT EASTERLY DRAINAGE OFF OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. COMPROMISED ON LOWS...UPPER
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR THE DETROIT URBAN HEAT ISLAND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IN SHOWING THE UPPER LOW NOW
ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS INTO
MANITOBA ON SATURDAY. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES HOWEVER SHOW A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE OVER WRN MONTANA. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
INTO MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN POTENTIAL
VORTICITY. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES SAT AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT AND BETTER MIXING DEPTHS MAY ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S. A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL HOWEVER
ADVECT SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SE MI FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SAT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S EAST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS IN TERMS OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FGEN IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GOOD AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE SAT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET MAX ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SAT NIGHT...WHICH CAUSES THE DEEP LAYER FGEN TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
FRONT TRAVERSES SE MI. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF JUST CHANCE TYPE POPS
SAT NIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SUN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SUN.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE NOW APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO
CARVE OUT ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SHIFT IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN TOWARD A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE WESTERN US MID LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSIVE. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...MID LEVEL WAVES SHOULD LIFT OUT OF
THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARD MID
WEEK. DESPITE BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE WEEK...E-NE LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SUSTAIN COOLER
CONDITIONS IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MARINE...

IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORNING FOG
MAY HAMPER NAVIGATION IN THE 6AM TO 10AM TIMEFRAME THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...WINDS AND WAVES WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH 10 TO 25 KNOT SOUTH WINDS. THE LONG FETCH ALONG
LAKE HURON WILL REALIZE WAVE POTENTIAL IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE IN
NORTHERN LAKE HURON...EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE
LAKE. FOLLOWING THAT FEATURE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. NEARSHORE AREAS WILL
REMAIN PROTECTED FROM HIGH WINDS AND WAVES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH WHERE A HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 112 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MATURE CYCLONE IN THE FORM OF A 988 MB SFC LOW OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL REACH ITS NADIR AROUND 12Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SODAK
WHEN THE HRRR HAS THE PRESSURE DOWN TO 985 MB WITH 12 HR H5 HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS NEB IN EXCESS OF 200 M. DURING THE MORNING THE SYSTEM
WILL START TO OCCLUDE AND BY 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING A 991/2 MB LOW
OVER SE NODAK THAT BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO A 995 MB LOW
EAST OF THE MANITOBA LAKES. THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NW MN WILL
SCOOT QUICKLY OFF INTO SRN CANADA TODAY...WITH AN OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SW MN AROUND 21Z...WILL BE CROSSING INTO WRN WI
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SATURDAY.

IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
BAND ONE WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE SEVERE SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED
ACROSS WRN NEB/KS LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A WAA BAND OF SHOWERS
THAT THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE HOPWRF HAVE BEEN HANDLING PRETTY
CONSISTENTLY OVERNIGHT...SO FOLLOWED THOSE MODELS TO BRING A NARROW
BAND OF HIGHER POPS INTO WRN MN AT 15Z...THAT WORKS OVER TOWARD THE
MN/WI BORDER SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER POPS TO
THE EAST WITH THIS...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING A CONTINUOUS
N-S ORIENTED BAND WORKING ACROSS THE ENTIRE MN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO UP POPS FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN
THUNDER LOOKING LIMITED AS WELL...BUT IT WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLL IN
THE POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS THANKS TO ITS CLOUD COVER AND
ITS LIMITING OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION.

AS FOR THAT SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP...IT WOULD FORM ALONG THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IT REPRESENTS THE
SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY AS WELL. ONE LOOK AT A FORECAST HODOGRAPH
SHOWS THAT ONE THING THAT WILL NOT BE IN QUESTION TODAY IS
SHEAR...LETS JUST SAY IT WILL BE COPIOUS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF TURNING WITHIN JUST THE LOWEST 1-3 KM OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDED BY A LLJ AT H85 THAT WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO OVER 50
KTS OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY GET THE HEART
PUMPING A BIT...A QUICK LOOK AT THE CAPE PROFILE SHOULD QUICKLY CALM
YOU BACK DOWN AS SBCAPE LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 700 J/KG AT
BEST...WITH CAPE PROFILES BEING QUITE SKINNY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE SHALLOW...HENCE THE MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS IN THE SPC SWODY1. THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ORIENTED MORE N-S ACROSS SRN MN...BUT WILL BE ARCING TO MORE
OF E-W ORIENTATION ACROSS WC MN INTO THE SFC LOW OVER SE NODAK. THE
SPC SWODY1 SLIGHT RISK IS CENTERED MORE ON WHERE THE FRONT TAKES ON
MORE OF A LATITUDINAL ORIENTATION...THOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT SCP/STP
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPIN AND THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES LOOKS TO
KEEP THIS AS A WIND/TORNADO THREAT ONLY.

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH A RAPIDLY DECAYING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO ERN
MN/WRN WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
PRIMARY UPPER FORCING WILL BE MOVING UP INTO WRN ONTARIO...WITH NOT
MUCH MORE THAN SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO WORK WITH FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF DECREASING POPS THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO.

WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM WHAT WAS
INHERITED. HOWEVER...WITH THE GFSLAMP SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT
AXN INCREASING TO OVER 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO TACK ON
ANOTHER 4 COUNTIES TO THE NORTH OF THE EXISTING WIND ADVY.

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS
TO SLOW THE FRONTS TIMING BY A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO ENJOY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES ON A
BELOW NORMAL JOURNEY. THERE WILL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS RESULTING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... ALTHOUGH MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THERE IS A CONTINUED SLOWING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT... BROKE THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
POP/WX GRIDS INTO 6 HOUR BLOCKS AND SLOWED THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI OVER WHAT THE CR
EXTEND INDICATED. THIS KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TWIN CITIES UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT AROUND MID WEEK.
THE GFS WOULD KEEP AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF AN
UPPER LOW AND DRAGS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS...PRECIPITATION AND HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT... HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY WITH COOL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MN SITES
/PRIMARILY KRWF-KAXN-KSTC/ WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A QUICK BURST
OF HEAVY PRECIP...GUSTY WINDS...AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE BAND
LIFTS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE SITE
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS SECONDARY ACTIVITY WILL BE KAXN
AND KRWF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...ALTHOUGH
THE ATTENDANT CATEGORY SHOULD BE VFR. AS THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH FILTERS IN TONIGHT...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY
SHIFT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION FOR SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED
15 KT GUSTING T0 25KT SPEEDS EXPECTED.

KMSP...
THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE 22Z TO 02Z...WITH A
MINIMAL THREAT FOR THUNDER. OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHRA
ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO
200 DEGREES AROUND 03Z..VEER FURTHER TO AROUND 230 DEGREES BY
15Z...THEN 250 DEGREES BY 18Z SATURDAY. SPEEDS AR NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON DURING THE DAY TODAY AND SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH -SHRA/MVFR LIKELY IN THE AFT/EVE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR WITH -SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. WINDS NNE 7-12KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>057-064-065-073>075-082-083-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE/LS










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 109 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MATURE CYCLONE IN THE FORM OF A 988 MB SFC LOW OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE WILL REACH ITS NADIR AROUND 12Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SODAK
WHEN THE HRRR HAS THE PRESSURE DOWN TO 985 MB WITH 12 HR H5 HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS NEB IN EXCESS OF 200 M. DURING THE MORNING THE SYSTEM
WILL START TO OCCLUDE AND BY 00Z MODELS ARE SHOWING A 991/2 MB LOW
OVER SE NODAK THAT BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO A 995 MB LOW
EAST OF THE MANITOBA LAKES. THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NW MN WILL
SCOOT QUICKLY OFF INTO SRN CANADA TODAY...WITH AN OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SW MN AROUND 21Z...WILL BE CROSSING INTO WRN WI
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SATURDAY.

IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
BAND ONE WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE SEVERE SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED
ACROSS WRN NEB/KS LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A WAA BAND OF SHOWERS
THAT THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE HOPWRF HAVE BEEN HANDLING PRETTY
CONSISTENTLY OVERNIGHT...SO FOLLOWED THOSE MODELS TO BRING A NARROW
BAND OF HIGHER POPS INTO WRN MN AT 15Z...THAT WORKS OVER TOWARD THE
MN/WI BORDER SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER POPS TO
THE EAST WITH THIS...THOUGH THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING A CONTINUOUS
N-S ORIENTED BAND WORKING ACROSS THE ENTIRE MN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING...SO FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO UP POPS FARTHER EAST AS
WELL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH EVEN
THUNDER LOOKING LIMITED AS WELL...BUT IT WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLL IN
THE POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS THANKS TO ITS CLOUD COVER AND
ITS LIMITING OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION.

AS FOR THAT SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP...IT WOULD FORM ALONG THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IT REPRESENTS THE
SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY AS WELL. ONE LOOK AT A FORECAST HODOGRAPH
SHOWS THAT ONE THING THAT WILL NOT BE IN QUESTION TODAY IS
SHEAR...LETS JUST SAY IT WILL BE COPIOUS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF TURNING WITHIN JUST THE LOWEST 1-3 KM OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AIDED BY A LLJ AT H85 THAT WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO OVER 50
KTS OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY GET THE HEART
PUMPING A BIT...A QUICK LOOK AT THE CAPE PROFILE SHOULD QUICKLY CALM
YOU BACK DOWN AS SBCAPE LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 700 J/KG AT
BEST...WITH CAPE PROFILES BEING QUITE SKINNY. THIS MEANS ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE SHALLOW...HENCE THE MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS IN THE SPC SWODY1. THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ORIENTED MORE N-S ACROSS SRN MN...BUT WILL BE ARCING TO MORE
OF E-W ORIENTATION ACROSS WC MN INTO THE SFC LOW OVER SE NODAK. THE
SPC SWODY1 SLIGHT RISK IS CENTERED MORE ON WHERE THE FRONT TAKES ON
MORE OF A LATITUDINAL ORIENTATION...THOUGH WHEN LOOKING AT SCP/STP
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPIN AND THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES LOOKS TO
KEEP THIS AS A WIND/TORNADO THREAT ONLY.

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH A RAPIDLY DECAYING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO ERN
MN/WRN WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
PRIMARY UPPER FORCING WILL BE MOVING UP INTO WRN ONTARIO...WITH NOT
MUCH MORE THAN SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO WORK WITH FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF DECREASING POPS THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO.

WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM WHAT WAS
INHERITED. HOWEVER...WITH THE GFSLAMP SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT
AXN INCREASING TO OVER 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO TACK ON
ANOTHER 4 COUNTIES TO THE NORTH OF THE EXISTING WIND ADVY.

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS
TO SLOW THE FRONTS TIMING BY A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO ENJOY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES ON A
BELOW NORMAL JOURNEY. THERE WILL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS RESULTING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... ALTHOUGH MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THERE IS A CONTINUED SLOWING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT... BROKE THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
POP/WX GRIDS INTO 6 HOUR BLOCKS AND SLOWED THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI OVER WHAT THE CR
EXTEND INDICATED. THIS KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE TWIN CITIES UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DRY
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT AROUND MID WEEK.
THE GFS WOULD KEEP AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF AN
UPPER LOW AND DRAGS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... WITH ALL THE CLOUDINESS...PRECIPITATION AND HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT... HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A LARGE
TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY WITH COOL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MN SITES
/PRIMARILY KRWF-KAXN-KSTC/ WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A QUICK BURST
OF HEAVY PRECIP...GUSTY WINDS...AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE BAND
LIFTS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE SITE
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS SECONDARY ACTIVITY WILL BE KAXN
AND KRWF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...ALTHOUGH THE ATTENDANT CATEGORY SHOULD BE VFR. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY SHIFT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION FOR
SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED 15 KT GUSTING T0 25KT SPEEDS EXPECTED.

KMSP...
THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE 22Z TO 02Z...WITH A
MINIMAL THREAT FOR THUNDER. OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHRA
ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO
200 DEGREES AROUND 03Z..VEER FURTHER TO AROUND 230 DEGREES BY
15Z...THEN 250 DEGREES BY 18Z SATURDAY. SPEEDS AR NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON DURING THE DAY TODAY AND SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH -SHRA/MVFR LIKELY IN THE AFT/EVE. WINDS E AT 10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR WITH -SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. WINDS NNE 7-12KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>057-064-065-073>075-082-083-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE/LS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

 402 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE WARMED UP QUICKLY AFTER THE FOG/STRATUS
CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND WENT CLOSE TO MAV. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS HIGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REGION WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS FORECAST RUC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE VERY LOW.
ALSO...LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO FALL BETWEEN 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE. THIS WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. DID NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THE
MOMENT BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL. SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO
HINDER FOG POTENTIAL. FOG SHOULD LIFT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AROUND
14-15Z. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PIVOT
NE...SLIDING THE S/WV RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL AID IN A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA TOMORROW FROM THE W/NW. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS N THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...THE BOUNDARY WILL LOSE SOME
EASTWARD MOTION AND STALL ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE REGION. SOME
SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE NW/CENTRAL AREAS TOMORROW WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR NW DELTA DUE TO SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. WENT CLOSE TO MAV HIGHS/POPS SATURDAY.

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LOW MAV INDICATES SOME LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW. ALSO GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE 12Z IN THE W/NW BUT SHOULD END AFTER 3-6Z.
H5 UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SW GULF WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE E AND
THE AREA WILL WARM NICELY INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S SUNDAY. SOME HIGHER
PWATS IN THE SW WILL AID IN SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO EVENING. WENT CLOSE TO MAV HIGHS/POPS SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR SLIGHTLY IN THE E...SUPPORTING NEAR MAV LOWS MONDAY
MORNING. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WILL END AROUND 3Z MONDAY IN THE
FAR SW. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS
ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...

NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FROM YESTERDAY MORNING. THE
REGION WILL BE SITUATED UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAKENING BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING THE REGION EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND
BUT LOOKS TO STALL TO OUR WEST. MOST OF THE ARKLAMISS WILL REMAIN ON
THE DRIER AND WARMER SIDE GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 80S THROUGH
MID-WEEK. CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND BRINGS A FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. MODELS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING THIS FRONT THROUGH
MID-WEEK...GENERALLY AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS MUCH SLOWER IN BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAINS THROUGH THE REGION...STALLING IT AGAIN TO THE WEST UNTIL BETTER
SUPPORT BROUGHT IT THROUGH BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF
RETURNS MORE IN LINE WITH LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUN AND THE MOST RECENT
00Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON WED-
THURS AND CLEARING OUT THE RAIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AT THIS
TIME...STILL LOOKS LIKE JUST RAIN AS INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT. MODELS
CLEAR OUT THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER AIR FILTER IN. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN NEXT 24 HOURS WILL AGAIN BE
IFR/VLIFR DENSE FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MRNG. AT
THIS TIME...VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH FEW/SCT
3500-5000 FT CUMULUS DECK AND 3-7 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS. SKIES WILL
CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVRNGT ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS 08Z-14Z. BEST PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE IN
SOUTH MS AND IMPACT KHBG/KPIB WEST TO KMCB AND KHEZ. KJAN/KHKS/MEI
WILL LIKELY GO IFR BUT MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS THIS MRNG. FOG/STRATUS
WILL DISSIPATE BY 15-16Z WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER WITH LIGHT
WINDS. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  85  64  88 /   4  14  14  20
MERIDIAN      60  86  61  88 /   3   5   4  10
VICKSBURG     65  85  63  88 /   7  25  18  28
HATTIESBURG   64  87  63  89 /   6   6   6  20
NATCHEZ       67  84  66  85 /   5  22  15  36
GREENVILLE    64  85  64  85 /  12  35  24  14
GREENWOOD     65  85  63  87 /   7  26  16   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/28/ALLEN






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 453 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 453 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

Latest surface analysis shows a broad confluence zone stretching
through eastern Kansas, situated along the western edge of a low
level moist axis characterized by dewpoints in the lower 60s.
Visible satellite imagery shows that clouds have scattered between
the approaching surface dryline and widespread overcast across
western MO, with a congealing line of cumulus present from FNB to
EMP where temperatures have quickly climbed to near 80 degrees. This
has yielded modest SBCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg, thanks to
seasonably rich moisture in the sfc-800mb layer and dry air
advancing aloft ahead of the upper trough. Potential cloud bearing
shear values are quite strong ahead of the upper trough, estimated
based on recent aircraft soundings between 45-50 knots, with vectors
largely orthogonal to the dryline and trailing cold front
orientations.

The big question mark over the next several hours will be whether or
not sufficient low level convergence can lift out the remaining
inhibition (roughly 50 J/kg) still present per latest RUC analysis.
Although several convective allowing models and the NAM-WRF do
generate deep convection, their preferred location seems to be well
east of where recent trends suggest its most possible. Several
scenarios remain plausible, including a null event. However, it
seems to reason that sufficient synoptic forcing and/or the evening
low level jet should force at least isolated convection sometime in
the next 1-3 hours, possibly as far west as eastern Kansas.

/If/ storms develop...0-3km CAPE between 100-200 J/kg, coupled with
favorable deep layer shear could support discrete storms capable of
producing bouts of at least marginal severe weather through mid
evening. Obviously concerns surrounding numerous ongoing evening
activities as well, so will monitor closely for signs of
development.

Bookbinder

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

Forecast for the next couple of days is focused on precipitation
chances for tonight. Water vapor imagery shows us a compact low
lifting northeast through Dakota`s with a cold front extending south
through eastern Nebraska and central Kansas. The band of showers
that transited the forecast area earlier today has petered out as
the spoke of isentropic lift that was helping fuel this activity on
the 300K to 305K surfaces has shifted off to the northeast. Thick
cloud cover across western Missouri, with more scattered cover in
eastern Kansas, is a result of the continued broad isentropic assent
occurring ahead of the cold front in Kansas. As the front pushes
slowly east tonight lift ahead of the front will intersect the
deeper moisture across Missouri, likely resulting in showers and
embedded thunderstorms tonight. Current short range model outputs
indicate that much of this activity will likely develop in place
across western Missouri, and recent visible satellite imagery backs
that assertion up as the cloud cover is looking decidedly flat at
this time. As a result, still expect storms to develop late this
afternoon and-or early this evening across western Missouri
--possibly just east of KC--, with the potential for a good wetting
rain increasing as you move towards central Missouri. Much of the
activity under the "Friday Night Lights" should be minimally
impacted as showers and thunderstorms likely wont get going till the
mid to late evening hours --after 7 PM--. That being said, when
storms do develop lightning will be of concern to anyone still
outside.

By Saturday morning the front, and associated showers, will have
left our section of Missouri behind. Near normal temperatures will
sweep in to dominate the rest of the weekend with highs in the upper
60s to low 70s for both Saturday and Sunday. Next chance at storms
will arrive Monday as another storm system moves through the Plains
States.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

Another upper trough is slated to dig/deepen over the Great Basin
Sunday night with southwesterly flow aloft downstream. The general
model trend through Tuesday allows for a broadening and positive
tilting of this upper trough with several pieces of energy ejecting
through the Central/Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley while
retaining a secondary shortwave in the base of the trough. The
initial shortwave ejecting out of the main upper trough is expected
to track further south than the one currently moving through NE/SD.
This should allow for a better quality of low level moisture to work
into the MO River Valley for convective development at the start of
the work week.

Sunday night: Dome of Pacific high pressure will retreat eastward
overnight while warm air advection begins to ramp-up over the
Central Plains in response to pressure falls ahead of the first
shortwave ejecting from the Great Basin upper trough. Believe there
will be enough dry air to overcome due to easterly boundary layer
flow to hold precipitation at bay for most of the night except for
the far western CWA where slight chance PoPs inserted after midnight.

Monday-Tuesday: Models are in very good agreement with strong/deep
isentropic ascent on the 300K through 315K layers although the 12z
NAM may be a bit too fast in spreading precipitation east. However,
don`t want to underestimate the degree of warm air advection. High
confidence on going with high PoPs for Monday/Monday night. Have
raised Monday max temperatures over the eastern CWA due to a delay
in precipitation arriving and partial sunshine. A cold front moving
through KS/MO Monday night will likely enhance convergence and
likely another round of convection Monday night.

Mid level dry slot wrapping under the surface low passing north of
the CWA will strip away deeper moisture and limit qpf on Tuesday.
Scattered residual showers are expected to end from west to east
during the morning. Cold air advection and left over cloud cover
will result in below average temperatures.

Wednesday-Friday: Confidence decreases markedly during this period
owing to widening model spread with time. Wrap around cloud
cover/sprinkles associated with the departing cyclone could spread
back into the CWA on Wednesday as suggested by ECMWF/GFS solutions.
Despite the wide model spread there is an over-riding theme during
this period and it revolves around below average temperatures. Will
leave precipitation out for now.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

A broken deck of MVFR clouds developed across western Missouri this
morning, and looks to persist through much of the afternoon hours.
Showers associated with the cloud cover have moved well east of the
terminals, but more activity is expected to develop again across
western Missouri late this afternoon and into the evening hours.
However, much of the focus for this activity is also expected to be
east of the terminals, so have limited the mention of storms to VCTS.
Otherwise, surface wind will turn to the northwest behind a front
that will move through early this evening, likely keeping VFR
conditions and northerly winds prevailing through the reminder of
the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...Bookbinder
SHORT TERM...Cutter
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 152 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013


.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE REST OF THIS AFTN.

DEE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013/

DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY AND HEAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. FAIRLY
NARROW 75 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKENING. LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR MODEL SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...WITH BEST
CHANCES LIKELY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
WILL EAST/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY 15/16Z. WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WINDY CONDITIONS SET UP FOR MOST AREAS BEHIND
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERN TIER
OF COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT MEET OFFICIAL CRITERIA...BUT
IT`S PROBABLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.

COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE
STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM WEST/NORTHWEST. TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH
FOR WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND EXITING MONDAY
NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ALREADY HAD 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS AND
IN GENERAL...LEFT THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP POPS UP 5 TO 10
PERCENT BASED ON MODEL CONTINUITY AND TIMING. PRECIP WOULD MOSTLY
BE OUT OF HERE BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST NEXT WEEK INDICATES COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...AND STILL NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNS OF A
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE JUST YET...ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS
COULD FLIRT WITH MID/UPPER 30S.

DEWALD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

99/99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

ARC OF INCREASING CONVECTION CURRENTLY THROUGH CENTRAL FA RUNNING
FROM NW-SE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD.
OTHER BANDS OF CONVECTION CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW CENTER BETWEEN PIR
AND MBG. EXPECT THIS ALSO TO GET INTO THE FA AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
NNE. TOR WATCH IN EFFECT TIL 8PM ROUGHLY ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF FA.
WILL BE CHALLENGING AFTERNOON WITH LOW TOP SUPER CELLS AND POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES WHICH MAY BE CHALLENGING TO DISCERN FROM RADAR
IMAGERY. OVERALL CURRENT POPS IN LINE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION
SO NO CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE PCPN
CHANCES/COVERAGE...TEMPERATURES AND SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO CANADA OR WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS FAR
WESTERN FA WITH A BAND OF MAINLY SHRA LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF SD
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN FA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO DELAY HEATING THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND SHORT RANGE MODEL FORECAST. MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. RAP
AND HRRR HAVE A BAND OF RAIN ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS FOLLOWING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS SEEMS TO FIT
THE RADAR SHOWING A RAIN BAND CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN SD. ADJUSTED
POPS TO DECREASE MENTION OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT
KEPT THEM HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVERE
MENTION BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MUCH WE DESTABILIZE DURING THE
LATE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

RAIN AND ANY SEVERE CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM...ALONG WITH WINDS.

WV LOOP HAS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
ENTERED OUR AREA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE MAIN PRECIP
HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE MAIN LOW. JUDGING FROM
THE RADAR LOOP AND THE RAP/HRRR...THINK WE SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FROM THE RAIN SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON
INSTABILITY...WITH 500-1000 J/KG WHILE SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS
DO NOT GO QUITE AS STRONG WITH SFC CAPE. STILL...WITH THE UPPER
LOW MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AT PEAK HEATING AND THE VERY
STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AND INCLUDED SOME SEVERE IN THE GRIDS. ANY SEVERE WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
SFC LOW. LAMP HAS THE SOUTHERN TIER GETTING UP TO 25-27 KTS
SUSTAINED FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL NOT LAST A
LONG TIME HOWEVER...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE
CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WELL
BEHAVED FOR A WHILE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH...THEN START
BLOWING AGAIN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS LATER PERIOD AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE WHEN THERE IS NOT MUCH
MIXING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR BEHIND THE LOW BUT
INCLUDED AN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH IT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO MANITOBA TOMORROW...BUT MODELS BRING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF IT. THEY SEEM TO HAVE
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE WETTER ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH SOME PRECIP ALL THE WAY DOWN TOWARDS THE SD BORDER.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PRETTY COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPS...EXPANDED THE
LOW POPS WE HAD GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY QUIET DOWN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
IN OUR NORTHEAST...BUT OVERALL A DRIER TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS BY SUNDAY...AND MODELS START BRINGING IN SOME PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LEFT THE LOW POPS WE HAD FOR
SUNDAY...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL
PATTERN THOUGH TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL INCONSISTENT FROM THE
SLOWER 00Z ECMWF TO THE MIDDLE 00Z GEM TO MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z GFS.
NONE THE LESS AREA TO SEE THE NORTHERN PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS NEBRASKA MONDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON ITS NORTHWARD EXTENT WITH THE SOUTHERN VALLEY VERY
LIKELY AND JUST A CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA FOR
RAIN IN THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SHOWERS LINGER LONGER ON THE
SLOWER EC AND GEM INTO TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH A 500MB TROUGH PERSISTING OR REINFORCED ON THURSDAY
WITH A CHC OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

TSTMS AND MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS FROM SD INTO ND. A
BAND FROM FAR TO DVL WILL SHIFT NORTH AND WEST AS IT WRAPS AROUND
THE LOW...GIVING A BRIEF PERIOD OF TSTM ACTIVITY AT THOSE
LOCATIONS...AND PERHAPS GFK...EARLY THIS AFTN. THERE WILL THEN BE A
BREAK BEFORE MORE WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND A SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN AFT 12Z SAT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...SPEICHER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 338 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE DRY SLOT CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE
CWA WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSING NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA...AND LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS A
MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. MAY SEE A SECONDARY SURGE OF
WESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES MORE NORTHEAST...AND A PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN.
STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS SHOULD MAINLY STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH COULD OCCUR FOR A TIME INTO
THIS EVENING. WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS
EVENING AS ADVECTION BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL AND WE ARE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE A BIT AT THE SURFACE. SO FOR NOW ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 03Z
SEEMS OK. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...AS IF WE STAY MIXED LONGER
COULD SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATUS WILL LIKELY REENTER THE CWA BEHIND THE LOW OVERNIGHT AS
WELL. THINK LOWS WILL END UP CLOSER TO THE WARMER RAW GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE MIXED STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOOKING AT READINGS IN THE MID
40S. STRATUS MAY LINGER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE INCREASING SUN THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14
CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINE AT THIS POINT...BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGING SLIDING
OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BUT COPIOUS SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LEFT MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND OPENS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...REACHING NORTHERN WISCONSIN
BY AROUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...MOST NOTABLY WITH THE ECMWF
SLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND LINGERING IT OVER OUR VICINITY
MUCH LONGER. AS IT STANDS...ALL MODELS POINT TO A VERY WET AND COOL
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY IS PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW EMBEDDED NON
SEVERE STORMS. WINDS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE STRONG AGAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE TEMPERATURES DO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY...PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO REMAIN ENTIRELY RAIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH
VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE.

REMOVED MENTION OF SOME VERY LOW END POPS PRODUCED BY THE ALLBLEND
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THERE. BUT IF
THE ECMWF PANS OUT...COULD SEE WET AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LINGER INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW
EXITING THE CWA TO THE EAST. MAIN ISSUE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL
BE WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS CONTINUING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BEHIND IT FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH AND WE GET ANOTHER PUSH OF DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE SECONDARY SURGE
SHOULD BE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 45 KTS SEEM
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MAY ALSO SEE A RETURN
OF MVFR STRATUS WITH THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSH. FOR NOW JUST
INTRODUCED IT FOR A PERIOD AT KHON WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST. BUT
COULD ALSO SEE IT APPROACH KFSD FOR A PERIOD THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THE ADVECTION BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL AND WOULD
EXPECT STRATUS TO BEGIN LIFTING AND DISSIPATING..WITH WINDS ALSO
WEAKENING SOME. BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW
THOUGH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-050-
     052>071.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

AT 3 PM...A 990 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PIERRE
SOUTH DAKOTA. DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...MSAS DATA SHOWS THAT THE
SURFACE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 4 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
MEANWHILE THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN 6 MB ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LAPS SHOWS THE TROPOSPHERIC FOLD EXTENDING DOWN
800 MB. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTHEAST...THERE IS A 1019 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
41 MPH /149 PM/ AT ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND 39 MPH
/133 PM/ AT THE DODGE CENTER AWOS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LATEST RAP SHOW THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE 900 TO 800 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE ECHO COVERAGE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED. THIS SHOWS UP WELL IN THE RAP...NMM...AND ARW. AS A
RESULT...KEPT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 15 TO 24 PERCENT
RANGE. ML CAPES GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM AROUND 500 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 200 J/KG AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO
THIS...CONFINED THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EVENING. LIKE
YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE TOO GREAT FOR THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...THUS ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
HAPPEN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GET SHEARED APART QUICKLY. WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THE
WIND GUSTS TO QUICKLY WANE.

ON SATURDAY MORNING...THE 11.12Z MODELS APPEAR TO BE JUST A BIT
SLOWER AT MOVING THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HELD
ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
THROUGH 12.14Z.

ON SATURDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH BEING LOCATED MORE ACROSS IOWA THAN
OUR FORECAST AREA. THINKING THAT THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT THE TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AS
MUCH AS THEY WILL BE UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE HIGH. AS A RESULT...
KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 35 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN THE MISSISSIPPI AND WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST TO DEVELOP.

FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
LOW THAT A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN EXACTLY WILL
THIS OCCUR. THE 11.12Z EMCWF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN
AND SLOWER THAN SOME OF THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. AS
RESULT NOT EXACTLY SURE WHICH TIME PERIOD /MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY...
OR BOTH/ TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES /80 TO
100 PERCENT/. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...JUST STAYED WITH THE ALL
BLEND SOLUTION. A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...IT LOOKED LIKE WE WOULD
POTENTIALLY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS LOW...BUT THE
MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT WE WILL ONLY SEE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO
DEVELOP AT KLSE WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THANKS TO
THE DEEPER INVERSION IN THE VALLEY. GUSTS AT KRST SHOULD TOP OUT
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. THE GUSTS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO FORM AGAIN...BUT
EXPECTING THE GRADIENT TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE PRODUCING
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT AT KRST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VFR
CEILING AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE ON THE SHOWERS IS
NOT HIGH SO STAYED WITH A VCSH AT BOTH SITES...THOUGH THE 11.15Z
RAP IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BRINGS ENOUGH FORCING TO GET THE
SHOWERS INTO KRST THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS SATURDAY
MORNING...THE WINDS ALOFT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTS
AGAIN AT KRST...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04