Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/08/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1035 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER TUE INTO THU AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A BIT OF
RAIN AT TIMES THU NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ONLY IF THE
SYSTEM TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH. THERE IS VERY LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREAS OF RAIN LINGERED ACROSS ACROSS THE OUTER
CAPE AND NANTUCKET. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ABOUT READY TO CROSS THE
BOSTON METRO AREA...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SHORTLY NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER THREAT BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK TO BE TOO SLOW TO BRING THIS FRONT
THROUGH BY SEVERAL HOURS. OTHER THAN THE TIMING...THE PATTERN
LOOKS QUITE GOOD. AS SUCH WILL KEEP THE PATTERN BUT SPEED IT UP BY
3 HOURS TO ADJUST RAINFALL CHANCES THIS EVENING.
ALL ADVISORIES...WATCHES AND WARNINGS OVER LAND IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HAVE ENDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND...BUT THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE OVER. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WIN OUT IN MOST
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ON THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOWS BY DAYBREAK
SHOULD FINALLY FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS E ACROSS SNE BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS. COLUMN IS QUITE DRY SO EVEN CU WILL BE
LIMITED. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID/UPPER 60S...COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER LIKELY WED AND MOST OF THU
* A BIT OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
* MAY END UP COMPLETELY DRY IF STORM STAYS SOUTH
DETAILS...
TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RESULT IN A
CHILLY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL MAINLY INTO THE 30S...TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FROST
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...IF WINDS ARE
ABLE TO DECOUPLE WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY WEDNESDAY INTO MOST
OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO INDICATE THAT WE MAY
SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVE IN FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING HIGH
MAINLY IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER 70S MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A
LOW MEANDERING SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS WILL DETERMINE IF WE END UP GETTING A
PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN. BIGGER THREAT FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME RAIN IN OUR
REGION WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AND VERY POOR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. WILL GENERALLY RUN WITH 20 TO 30 POPS TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...WITH THE HIGHER POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCE
FOR A BIT OF RAIN MAY COME THU NIGHT INTO FRI THEN AGAIN LATER SUN
INTO MON. ITS ALSO POSSIBLE ALL THE RAIN REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THIS TIME...JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO SAY MUCH MORE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH CONFIDENCE TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...AS FOR CIGS/VSBYS...MAINLY MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND IN
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR THIS EVENING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SOME MVFR TO EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IF A MID ATLANTIC LOW MAKES IT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE THU
NIGHT/FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
1030 PM UPDATE...
DOWNGRADED ALL GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. MAINTAINED
THE PREVIOUSLY EXISTING END TIMES FOR NOW...BUT STARTING TO THINK
A FEW OF THEM MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER. STILL NOT SURE
OF THE TIMING YET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PROB FOR BRIEF SOUTHERLY GALES OVER EASTERN WATERS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS ACROSS THE WATERS. BUT
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN SO
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN IN SCA RANGE. BEST CHANCE
FOR MARGINAL GALES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN BOS HARBOR THROUGH 9 PM.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDING SEAS.
NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW SCA TUESDAY. SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA AS WELL
BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER OVER OUTER SE WATERS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL WIND DIRECTION....BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
WIND SPEEDS AND TIMING.
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW OF AIR MOST OF THE TIME. PERIODS OF 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY END UP A
BIT STRONGER FOR A TIME...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH MID ATLANTIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES IT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
SCA SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE TIME ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/KJC/FRANK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
920 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Rest of Tonight]...
The large scale upper level pattern is highlighted this evening by a
trough over the West Coast, a ridge over the Rockies and Great
Plains, and a trough over the Ern states Swd into Gulf of Mexico. A
weak H5 low was located south of Panama City while weak upper
shortwave is projected to move through our region tonight, possibly
enhancing precipitation chances over eastern parts of our region
through the evening. At surface, high pressure over the Ohio and
Mississippi Valley regions is building SEWD. A low is located over
Quebec with a cold front stretching through the Ern US to another
low, the remnant of TS Karen, over N/Cntrl FL and then front into
the Gulf. During late Monday afternoon into the early eve, showers
developed in deformation zones near cold front and north of the
remnant low. Offshore winds of 10 to 15 knots with a few higher
gusts were noted.
During the rest of tonight, models show H5 low opening up near coast
while the cold front and remnant low slowly ENE over north Florida
reaching the FL/GA coast around sunrise with progressively weakening
winds. A moist airmass with ample clouds should remain in place
along and ahead of the front in the Ern half of our area, while a
much drier airmass will move into the Wrn half. This is reflected in
RAP13 soundings, i.e. around sundown Dothan located well NW of low,
Tallahassee just west, and Jacksonville NE of low show PWATS of
0.70, 1.83 and 2.09 inches respectively. The HRRR is least bullish,
and ARW/CAM are most aggressive keeping rain in GA and the Big Bend
region of FL until about 09z. Will go with 0-40% W-E POP gradient.
Only chance of even an isold Tstm will be across ern most waters and
adjacent coast. This moisture/cloud disparity also sets up a W-E
temperature gradient with lows in the mid-upper 50s west to near 70
east. The combination of the surface high building SEWD and low over
NE FL should keep winds above calm. Even with rain ending, ample
moisture with above normal winds translates to some low stratus
pushing back in from the NW after midnight. This is reflected in the
LAMP/NM4 models.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
As the low that was once Karen stalls off the Northeast FL coast,
wrap-around clouds and scattered showers will impact the forecast
areas with highest PoPs to the east. The clouds will be thickest and
most persistent across our northeastern zones where temps will not
climb out of the mid to upper 70s. Areas in northwest FL will reach
the lower 80s. Clouds and isolated showers will linger into the
evening. While the rain chances will diminish for Wednesday, mostly
cloudy skies will linger across our GA zones until Wednesday
evening. Wednesday daytime temps will be similar to Tuesday`s.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
The upper level trough will still be stubbornly holding its own over
the Mid Atlantic states through Friday before drifting southeast
into the Atlantic over the weekend. The forecast area will start out
under northwesterly flow aloft before the pattern transitions to a
more zonal one. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over
New England and ridge southwestward into the local area with lower
pressure off the east coast. This will keep dry northeasterly winds
funneling into the region. Therefore this period will be a
rain-free. Temperatures will be near seasonal with highs in the
lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.
&&
.AVIATION [through 00 UTC Wednesday]...
Ceilings are expected to develop overnight and are already becoming
more established near the DHN/ABY terminals around 3kft. Satellite
imagery over the last hour or so show that the low cloud deck
continues to expand and expect cloud bases to lower throughout the
nighttime with conditions dropping to MVFR at all sites by 08z. IFR
conditions will be most likely at the ABY/VLD terminals in the hours
around sunrise Tuesday. With northeasterly flow, ceilings should be
slow to lift throughout the day. ECP/DHN should have the best chance
of breaking out into VFR after 18z on Tuesday. MVFR ceilings may
persist at ABY/VLD through the TAF cycle.
&&
.MARINE...
The low center that was formerly Karen will track east across the
northern Florida Peninsula overnight reach the FL/GA coast around
sunrise and then stall off the Atlantic coast for a couple of days.
The pressure gradient on the back side of this low will result in
cautionary winds and seas across our offshore legs. Winds will drop
below headline criteria late tonight as low moves further inland.
High pressure will then ridge into the area from the northeast and
produce periods of moderate northeast winds for the midweek period.
Winds will be highest at night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will remain above critical levels for the foreseeable
future. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions are not
anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
After around 1 to 2 inches of rain across portions of the Florida
Panhandle on Sunday into Monday, small rises are noted in the
Choctawhatchee River at Caryville and Chipola River between Marianna
and Altha. These rises of only around a foot or two are well below
action stages. Elsewhere, river levels continue to slowly fall
toward base levels, especially in Southern Georgia where limited
rainfall has occurred over the past couple of weeks. Little rainfall
is expected over the next 48 hours with a period of dry conditions
expected thereafter.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 67 83 62 81 60 / 30 30 10 10 10
Panama City 65 82 64 82 64 / 10 20 10 10 10
Dothan 58 80 58 79 58 / 10 20 10 10 10
Albany 65 79 58 77 58 / 30 30 20 10 10
Valdosta 70 80 59 78 59 / 40 40 20 10 10
Cross City 68 84 62 83 60 / 40 40 20 10 10
Apalachicola 67 81 65 81 64 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Block/Lahr
Aviation/Hydrology...Godsey
Fire Weather...Lamers
Rest of Discussion...Wool
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
854 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Rest of Tonight]...
The large scale upper level pattern is highlighted this evening by a
trough over the West Coast, a ridge over the Rockies and Great
Plains, and a trough over the Ern states Swd into Gulf of Mexico. A
weak H5 low was located south of Panama City while weak upper
shortwave is projected to move through our region tonight, possibly
enhancing precipitation chances over eastern parts of our region
through the evening. At surface, high pressure over the Ohio and
Mississippi Valley regions is building SEWD. A low is located over
Quebec with a cold front stretching through the Ern US to another
low, the remnant of TS Karen, over N/Cntrl FL and then front into
the Gulf. During late Monday afternoon into the early eve, showers
developed in deformation zones near cold front and north of the
remnant low. Offshore winds of 10 to 15 knots with a few higher
gusts were noted.
During the rest of tonight, models show H5 low opening up near coast
while the cold front and remnant low slowly ENE over north Florida
reaching the FL/GA coast around sunrise with progressively weakening
winds. A moist airmass with ample clouds should remain in place
along and ahead of the front in the Ern half of our area, while a
much drier airmass will move into the Wrn half. This is reflected in
RAP13 soundings, i.e. around sundown Dothan located well NW of low,
Tallahassee just west, and Jacksonville NE of low show PWATS of
0.70, 1.83 and 2.09 inches respectively. The HRRR is least bullish,
and ARW/CAM are most aggressive keeping rain in GA and the Big Bend
region of FL until about 09z. Will go with 0-40% W-E POP gradient.
Only chance of even an isold Tstm will be across ern most waters and
adjacent coast. This moisture/cloud disparity also sets up a W-E
temperature gradient with lows in the mid-upper 50s west to near 70
east. The combination of the surface high building SEWD and low over
NE FL should keep winds above calm. Even with rain ending, ample
moisture with above normal winds translates to some low stratus
pushing back in from the NW after midnight. This is reflected in the
LAMP/NM4 models.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
As the low that was once Karen stalls off the Northeast FL coast,
wrap-around clouds and scattered showers will impact the forecast
areas with highest PoPs to the east. The clouds will be thickest and
most persistent across our northeastern zones where temps will not
climb out of the mid to upper 70s. Areas in northwest FL will reach
the lower 80s. Clouds and isolated showers will linger into the
evening. While the rain chances will diminish for Wednesday, mostly
cloudy skies will linger across our GA zones until Wednesday
evening. Wednesday daytime temps will be similar to Tuesday`s.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
The upper level trough will still be stubbornly holding its own over
the Mid Atlantic states through Friday before drifting southeast
into the Atlantic over the weekend. The forecast area will start out
under northwesterly flow aloft before the pattern transitions to a
more zonal one. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over
New England and ridge southwestward into the local area with lower
pressure off the east coast. This will keep dry northeasterly winds
funneling into the region. Therefore this period will be a
rain-free. Temperatures will be near seasonal with highs in the
lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.
&&
.AVIATION [through 00 UTC Wednesday]...
Areas of low cigs are expected to develop overnight and are already
getting more established near the DHN/ABY terminals. The conditions
over the area should continue to lower throughout the nighttime with
VFR conditions dropping to MVFR at all sites by 08z. IFR conditions
over at ABY/VLD will be possible in the hours around sunrise Tues.
Look for ceilings to only slowly lift throughout the day. ECP/DHN
should have the best chance of breaking out into VFR after 18z. MVFR
ceilings may persist at ABY/VLD through the TAF cycle.
&&
.MARINE...
The low center that was formerly Karen will track east across the
northern Florida Peninsula overnight reach the FL/GA coast around
sunrise and then stall off the Atlantic coast for a couple of days.
The pressure gradient on the back side of this low will result in
cautionary winds and seas across our offshore legs. Winds will drop
below headline criteria late tonight as low moves further inland.
High pressure will then ridge into the area from the northeast and
produce periods of moderate northeast winds for the midweek period.
Winds will be highest at night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will remain above critical levels for the foreseeable
future. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions are not
anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Recent rainfall was insufficient to produce rises on areas rivers
other than the Shoal and a few tributaries of the Choctawhatchee. In
fact many area rivers are in slow recession. Forecast rainfall over
the next two days will be fairly light.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 67 83 62 81 60 / 30 30 10 10 10
Panama City 65 82 64 82 64 / 10 20 10 10 10
Dothan 58 80 58 79 58 / 10 20 10 10 10
Albany 65 79 58 77 58 / 30 30 20 10 10
Valdosta 70 80 59 78 59 / 40 40 20 10 10
Cross City 68 84 62 83 60 / 40 40 20 10 10
Apalachicola 67 81 65 81 64 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Block/Lahr
Aviation...Godsey
Fire Weather...Lamers
Rest of Discussion...Wool
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
741 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR-DAWN...DENSE FOG WAS LIFTING INLAND IN SE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
SLOWLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL MARITIME PUSH WAS UNDERWAY. FOG
HAS CLEARED OUT OF NORTH CHARLESTON BUT THAT WAS THE EXCEPTION RATHER
THAN THE NORM AS DENSE FOG AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS BLANKET MOST
AREAS INLAND FROM U.S. HIGHWAY 17. FAR INLAND AREAS MAY NEED BRIEF
EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PER LATEST HRRR AND SREF MODEL
TRENDS.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AN EROSION PHASE AS UPPER HEIGHT
FALLS UPSTREAM BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP CUT-OFF SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE AIR MASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA STARTS OFF DRY UPSTAIRS BUT MODELS INDICATE
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLC TODAY WITH 2 INCH PWATS
GETTING INTO SW GEORGIA BY DUSK. LAYERED CUMULUS AND STRATOCU FIELDS
SHOULD INCREASE TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE. THERE IS STILL A GOOD SUBSIDENCE CAP NOTED
ON SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND
TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE RAINS. SEVERAL MODELS GENERATE DEEP
CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT WE
FOUND THAT DIFFICULT TO BUY INTO GIVEN VERY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE LINGERING WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB. WE
MAINTAINED 20/30 POP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
WITH A FEW UPPER 80S W OF I-95 POSSIBLE IF GREATER INSOLATION
OCCURS.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. DEEP
MOISTURE AND UPPER DIFLUENCE SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
RAINS TO BLOSSOM OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY DAYBREAK. REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME STRONG SHEAR PROFILES BRUSHING THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE ROTATION
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE ON AN UPTICK IF INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO HAVE AN APPRECIABLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE THIS
PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL PUSH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES. AT
UPPER LEVELS AN 80 KT JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING DIVERGENCE. DECENT VORTICITY ENERGY
WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT...THEN THE BEST
FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS
PRETTY MUCH A CERTAINTY ON MONDAY SO WE BUMPED POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING AS THE DAY
WEARS ON BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING A TREE OR TWO.
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY...PUSHING THE PRECIP OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE ONE IT REPLACES. WE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS QUITE A BIT ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO GUIDANCE TRENDS. WE
NOW SHOW READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE. REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...FOG APPEARS TO BE DONE FOR THE DAY AS ATTENTION TURNS TO MVFR
LAYER POTENTIAL FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AND LOWER CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT.
WE WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH DENSE FOG FOR THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE NIGHT
AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXING. THERE
IS STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS TONIGHT AS MOISTURE BECOMES
DEEP. LATER TAF CYCLES CAN REFINE RAIN CHANCES/TIMING TONIGHT...FOR
NOW A VCSH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KSAV...THE FOG IS STILL DENSE AT THE TERMINAL AT 1130Z BUT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z AND NO LATER THAN 14Z. THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT MOST LIKELY VFR
CIGS. TONIGHT...MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS WILL RETURN BUT NOT THE
DENSE FOG AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE INCREASING LATE BUT VCSH WILL BE THE INTRODUCTION ON THE 12Z
CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILINGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR
OR PERHAPS IFR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO SHOWERS ALONG A COLD
FRONT. VFR THEREAFTER.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT E WINDS WILL INCREASING SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON AND VEERING SE
TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KT AND EVEN NEAR 20 KT AT TIMES OVER
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 FT OR
LESS THIS MORNING TO 3 TO 4 FT TONIGHT WITH WAVES TO 5 FT OVER
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS IN FAVORABLE ESE FETCH OFF THE WEST WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME 6 FT SEAS ACROSS OFFSHORE PORTIONS
BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PROMPT ANY ADVISORIES.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MARINE HEADLINES BEGINS TUESDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THE FLOW BECOMES NNE AND THE GRADIENT
PINCHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES...PRIMARILY DUE TO 6+ FT SEAS.
THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY THOUGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE DIMINISHING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES MAY COMBINE WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
BEGINNING TUESDAY TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR SALTWATER INUNDATION IN
LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE COAST AROUND THE TIMES OF THE LATE
MORNING HIGH TIDES.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
115 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-69. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS CENTRAL CONUS "BOWLING BALL" OF
VERY STRONG VORTICITY IS CURRENTLY ENTERING IOWA AND SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE EASTERN EDGE OF
MERIDIONAL 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS ENTERING EASTERN ILLINOIS
WITH THE BAND OF ENHANCED 925-850MB FGEN ENTERING NORTHWEST
INDIANA. TIGHTENING OF LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT HAS ALSO
SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 50 KT LLJ CURRENTLY SURGING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET IS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL LOCALLY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY GOOD 305K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL SMALL
SCALE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...VORTICITY MAXIMA LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS AND RAP MESOANALYSIS
ALSO SHOW A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...NOT ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT THE ADDED BUOYANCY IS FURTHER
AIDING UVM`S IN AN ALREADY RESPECTABLE REGION OF SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MOISTURE QUALITY IS EXCELLENT...BY OCTOBER STANDARDS ANYWAY...WITH
PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.75 INCHES. LOW CAPE DENSITY AND HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS/DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ARE ALSO PROMOTING HIGHLY
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND MEAN FLOW ALOFT NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT RAISES THE CONCERN FOR TRAINING OF STORMS AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS FASTER SYSTEM SPEED NOTED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. 00Z NWP SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PHASING WITH THE
TROUGH DIVING INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND A QUICKER EXIT OF STRONG
FRONTAL PRECIP LOCALLY. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EVEN SHOW THE
COLD FRONT IS ALREADY CLOSING IN ON OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. STILL
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRODIGIOUS AMOUNTS SUGGESTED BY
SOME OF LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS HAS DECREASED. NAM12 IS STILL SHOWING
SOME HINTS OF SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING BUT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN LAST NIGHT AND KEEPS THE
LONGEST DURATION/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF OUR
CWA. MEANWHILE OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SHOT AT
RAINFALL THIS MORNING...LIKELY ENDING AROUND MIDDAY...AND SEVERELY
LIMITING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES EAST OF I-69. GIVEN SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST
OHIO HAVE ALREADY SEEN 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES
NECESSARY AT THE MOMENT. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE
WATCH EARLY GIVEN FASTER EXIT OF PRECIP AND LOWER QPF TOTALS.
WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND COPIOUS PREFRONTAL CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY
DIURNAL GAIN IN INSTABILITY. MODELS SUGGEST 1000 J/KG AT
BEST...CONFINED TO OUR OHIO COUNTIES WITH GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND/SHEAR PROFILES DO
RAISE THE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES BUT
STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR AND EXPECT
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND ONLY IN OUR OHIO
COUNTIES.
AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD BY OCTOBER
STANDARDS BUT IS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
RECENTLY. CAA WILL GRADUALLY SEND 850MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID...AND EVENTUALLY LOW...SINGLE DIGITS. THUS EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS
TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO CURRENT VALUES. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S BY TONIGHT. MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT MAY BRING A TEMPORARY END TO
PRECIP FROM WEST-EAST BY LATER TODAY BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT...DEFORMATION-FORCED PRECIP RETURNING BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
INTENSE CLOSED LOW OVR WRN IA WILL SWING EWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES
SHRT TERM AND OPEN UP ON MON AS IT ACCELERATE NEWD THROUGH THE ST
LAW VALLEY. LINGERING SHRA XPCD ESP NORTH WITHIN RESIDUAL BUT
RAPIDLY WKNG TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE AS COLD POCKET ALOFT CROSSES
OVERHEAD MON MORNING.
OTRWS SFC RIDGE BLDS EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES IN THIS SYS/S WAKE
W/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS TO START THE WORKWEEK BUT MODERATING TO BACK
ABV NORMAL BY WED AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DVLPS IN EARNEST IN RESPONSE
TO RENEWED DEEP WRN TROUGH DVLPMNT. THIS NXT SYS XPCD TO LIFT OUT
WELL WWD OF WRN GREAT LAKES W/DRY WX XPCD LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST
DY7 (SAT).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
FINE LINE ON KIWX RADAR DEPICTING FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KFWA ATTM WHILE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP NOW EXITING KSBN AREA. PLENTY OF IFR CIGS ALONG
WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS INDICATED WEST OF KFWA SO WILL INCLUDE 2HR TEMPO
GROUP TO ACCT FOR THIS UNTIL PRECIP MOVES OUT BY 20Z. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT NOW WORKING INTO WESTERN INDIANA WITH
CLOSED UPPER LOW STILL WELL TO THE WEST IN EASTERN IOWA. EVEN WITH
ADDL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT BOTH LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ007-009-018-026-
027-033-034.
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ081.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...JAL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
555 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-69. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS CENTRAL CONUS "BOWLING BALL" OF
VERY STRONG VORTICITY IS CURRENTLY ENTERING IOWA AND SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE EASTERN EDGE OF
MERIDIONAL 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS ENTERING EASTERN ILLINOIS
WITH THE BAND OF ENHANCED 925-850MB FGEN ENTERING NORTHWEST
INDIANA. TIGHTENING OF LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT HAS ALSO
SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 50 KT LLJ CURRENTLY SURGING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET IS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL LOCALLY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY GOOD 305K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL SMALL
SCALE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...VORTICITY MAXIMA LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS AND RAP MESOANALYSIS
ALSO SHOW A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...NOT ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT THE ADDED BUOYANCY IS FURTHER
AIDING UVM`S IN AN ALREADY RESPECTABLE REGION OF SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MOISTURE QUALITY IS EXCELLENT...BY OCTOBER STANDARDS ANYWAY...WITH
PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.75 INCHES. LOW CAPE DENSITY AND HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS/DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ARE ALSO PROMOTING HIGHLY
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND MEAN FLOW ALOFT NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT RAISES THE CONCERN FOR TRAINING OF STORMS AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS FASTER SYSTEM SPEED NOTED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. 00Z NWP SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PHASING WITH THE
TROUGH DIVING INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND A QUICKER EXIT OF STRONG
FRONTAL PRECIP LOCALLY. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EVEN SHOW THE
COLD FRONT IS ALREADY CLOSING IN ON OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. STILL
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRODIGIOUS AMOUNTS SUGGESTED BY
SOME OF LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS HAS DECREASED. NAM12 IS STILL SHOWING
SOME HINTS OF SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING BUT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN LAST NIGHT AND KEEPS THE
LONGEST DURATION/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF OUR
CWA. MEANWHILE OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SHOT AT
RAINFALL THIS MORNING...LIKELY ENDING AROUND MIDDAY...AND SEVERELY
LIMITING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES EAST OF I-69. GIVEN SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST
OHIO HAVE ALREADY SEEN 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES
NECESSARY AT THE MOMENT. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE
WATCH EARLY GIVEN FASTER EXIT OF PRECIP AND LOWER QPF TOTALS.
WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND COPIOUS PREFRONTAL CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY
DIURNAL GAIN IN INSTABILITY. MODELS SUGGEST 1000 J/KG AT
BEST...CONFINED TO OUR OHIO COUNTIES WITH GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND/SHEAR PROFILES DO
RAISE THE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES BUT
STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR AND EXPECT
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND ONLY IN OUR OHIO
COUNTIES.
AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD BY OCTOBER
STANDARDS BUT IS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
RECENTLY. CAA WILL GRADUALLY SEND 850MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID...AND EVENTUALLY LOW...SINGLE DIGITS. THUS EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS
TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO CURRENT VALUES. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S BY TONIGHT. MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT MAY BRING A TEMPORARY END TO
PRECIP FROM WEST-EAST BY LATER TODAY BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT...DEFORMATION-FORCED PRECIP RETURNING BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
INTENSE CLOSED LOW OVR WRN IA WILL SWING EWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES
SHRT TERM AND OPEN UP ON MON AS IT ACCELERATE NEWD THROUGH THE ST
LAW VALLEY. LINGERING SHRA XPCD ESP NORTH WITHIN RESIDUAL BUT
RAPIDLY WKNG TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE AS COLD POCKET ALOFT CROSSES
OVERHEAD MON MORNING.
OTRWS SFC RIDGE BLDS EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES IN THIS SYS/S WAKE
W/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS TO START THE WORKWEEK BUT MODERATING TO BACK
ABV NORMAL BY WED AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DVLPS IN EARNEST IN RESPONSE
TO RENEWED DEEP WRN TROUGH DVLPMNT. THIS NXT SYS XPCD TO LIFT OUT
WELL WWD OF WRN GREAT LAKES W/DRY WX XPCD LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST
DY7 (SAT).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING KSBN.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THIS FRONT PASSES. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT
THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW...AND THE TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN...FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS AND DRIER AIR OVER ILLINOIS
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY ARRIVE EARLIER
THAN PRESENTLY IN THE TAFS...AS THE FRONT IS MOVING QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED...AND WILL ADJUST THE TIMING A BIT
WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ007-009-018-026-
027-033-034.
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ081.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
356 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-69. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS CENTRAL CONUS "BOWLING BALL" OF
VERY STRONG VORTICITY IS CURRENTLY ENTERING IOWA AND SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE EASTERN EDGE OF
MERIDIONAL 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS ENTERING EASTERN ILLINOIS
WITH THE BAND OF ENHANCED 925-850MB FGEN ENTERING NORTHWEST
INDIANA. TIGHTENING OF LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT HAS ALSO
SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 50 KT LLJ CURRENTLY SURGING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET IS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL LOCALLY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY GOOD 305K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL SMALL
SCALE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...VORTICITY MAXIMA LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS AND RAP MESOANALYSIS
ALSO SHOW A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...NOT ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT THE ADDED BUOYANCY IS FURTHER
AIDING UVM`S IN AN ALREADY RESPECTABLE REGION OF SYNOPTIC FORCING.
MOISTURE QUALITY IS EXCELLENT...BY OCTOBER STANDARDS ANYWAY...WITH
PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.75 INCHES. LOW CAPE DENSITY AND HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS/DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ARE ALSO PROMOTING HIGHLY
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND MEAN FLOW ALOFT NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT RAISES THE CONCERN FOR TRAINING OF STORMS AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS FASTER SYSTEM SPEED NOTED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. 00Z NWP SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PHASING WITH THE
TROUGH DIVING INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND A QUICKER EXIT OF STRONG
FRONTAL PRECIP LOCALLY. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EVEN SHOW THE
COLD FRONT IS ALREADY CLOSING IN ON OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. STILL
EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRODIGIOUS AMOUNTS SUGGESTED BY
SOME OF LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS HAS DECREASED. NAM12 IS STILL SHOWING
SOME HINTS OF SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING BUT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN LAST NIGHT AND KEEPS THE
LONGEST DURATION/HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF OUR
CWA. MEANWHILE OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF SHOT AT
RAINFALL THIS MORNING...LIKELY ENDING AROUND MIDDAY...AND SEVERELY
LIMITING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES EAST OF I-69. GIVEN SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST
OHIO HAVE ALREADY SEEN 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES
NECESSARY AT THE MOMENT. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE
WATCH EARLY GIVEN FASTER EXIT OF PRECIP AND LOWER QPF TOTALS.
WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND COPIOUS PREFRONTAL CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY
DIURNAL GAIN IN INSTABILITY. MODELS SUGGEST 1000 J/KG AT
BEST...CONFINED TO OUR OHIO COUNTIES WITH GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND/SHEAR PROFILES DO
RAISE THE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES BUT
STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR AND EXPECT
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND ONLY IN OUR OHIO
COUNTIES.
AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD BY OCTOBER
STANDARDS BUT IS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
RECENTLY. CAA WILL GRADUALLY SEND 850MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID...AND EVENTUALLY LOW...SINGLE DIGITS. THUS EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS
TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO CURRENT VALUES. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S BY TONIGHT. MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT MAY BRING A TEMPORARY END TO
PRECIP FROM WEST-EAST BY LATER TODAY BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT...DEFORMATION-FORCED PRECIP RETURNING BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
INTENSE CLOSED LOW OVR WRN IA WILL SWING EWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES
SHRT TERM AND OPEN UP ON MON AS IT ACCELERATE NEWD THROUGH THE ST
LAW VALLEY. LINGERING SHRA XPCD ESP NORTH WITHIN RESIDUAL BUT
RAPIDLY WKNG TROWAL/DEFORMATION ZONE AS COLD POCKET ALOFT CROSSES
OVERHEAD MON MORNING.
OTRWS SFC RIDGE BLDS EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES IN THIS SYS/S WAKE
W/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS TO START THE WORKWEEK BUT MODERATING TO BACK
ABV NORMAL BY WED AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DVLPS IN EARNEST IN RESPONSE
TO RENEWED DEEP WRN TROUGH DVLPMNT. THIS NXT SYS XPCD TO LIFT OUT
WELL WWD OF WRN GREAT LAKES W/DRY WX XPCD LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST
DY7 (SAT).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
LLJ AND ASSOCIATED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS INDIANA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY IMPACT KFWA BUT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS NEAR KSBN ALSO SHOW IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THAT WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING DESPITE LIGHTER
RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AT KFWA REMAINS LOW AS THE BEST
FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE SHUNTED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT WILL
LEAVE TEMPO MENTION FOR NOW. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS...AND IFR
CONDITIONS...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
COLD FRONT DOES NOT FULLY CROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
DRY SLOT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL THEN BRING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ007-009-018-026-
027-033-034.
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ081.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1154 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2013
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
Have updated the overnight forecast primarily for the addition of
sprinkles across northern Kansas, mainly after midnight. The upper
low will track toward the southeast overnight and light shower
activity currently over central and eastern Nebraska will make
their way southeast into northern Kansas. Do not expect anything
measurable at this time. Temperatures have been tracking fairly
well, and while a reinforcing shot of cold air is working its way
into Kansas this evening, it is accompanied by cloud cover and
continued winds/mixing. All of this together should keep overnight
lows around the 40 degree mark, with a few upper 30s possible. In
the odd event that temps fall below 38, wind should help prevent
any frost development.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
20Z water vapor imagery shows the closed upper low over southeast SD
slowly propagating east. A shortwave trough axis has rotated through
eastern KS helping to clear out the mid level clouds. At the surface
the cold front had pushed well east and south with dry cool air
advecting in from the west.
For tonight and Sunday, the forecast calls for generally dry weather
as there is little moisture to work with and large scale forcing
should remain to the north and east of the forecast area. Did leave
some slight chance pops in the far northeastern corner of the
forecast area during the day Sunday. As the upper low drifts across
southwest IA, lapse rates could steepen enough for some isolated
showers to move across Nemaha and Brown counties. The main thing to
watch will be the STRATOCU deck to the north. The RAP and NAM show
these clouds eventually moving into much of the forecast area
overnight. This should have an impact on MIN and MAX temps. Models
are in good agreement that the boundary layer will remain well mixed
overnight with increasing clouds from the north. Therefore am fairly
confident that MIN temps will not fall below 40 and even tweaks
temps up a degree or two. The forecast may still be on the cool side
if the clouds move in quicker. Highs Sunday are expected to warm
back into the 60s for most areas. Forecast soundings mix the
boundary layer almost to 800MB and models indicate the cold air
advection will have ended. The main question is whether clouds will
hold temps down. Added about 3 to 5 degrees to MAX temps across the
western and southern counties where there should be more insolation
with good mixing. Across northeastern KS where clouds are likely to
hang in tough, kept highs in the middle 50s.
Wolters
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
Upper low still on track to progress eastward through the mid MO and
OH river valleys through Monday. Most of the moisture wrapping
around the backside of the exiting upper may linger across the far
northeast corner of the cwa early Sunday evening...so have left a
slight chance in for that time period. Otherwise will go with a dry
fcst Monday through Thursday night as upper level ridging will
develop across the plains in the wake of the first trough exiting
trough and ahead of the second upper trough that deepens over the
west CONUS. Will continue to slowly but steadily increase high temps
through the 70s Monday through Thursday...with a few low 80s on
Thursday. As the western trough then lift out into the plains on Friday
and Friday night...with more clouds and the potential for showers
and thunderstorms cooled temps slightly for Friday before the
frontal passage and and even cooler readings in the low to middle
70s on Saturday. Warmed low temps from near 40 Monday morning into
the 50s by Wednesday on through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
TAF beings VFR but with increasing clouds in the 3k to 4k foot
range. Have increasing confidence that MVFR ceilings will develop
at all TAF sites, likely in the 09Z to 11Z time frame, and
persisting through approximately 15Z before lifting above 3k feet.
Winds will be gusty after 15Z with gusts in the 24 to 30 kt range.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF OVER THE
GREAT LKS SANDWICHED BTWN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS AND
ANOTHER RDG OFF THE E COAST. H925-85 THERMAL TROF ASSOCIATED WITH
REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE UPR LKS AND MOIST LLVLS SHOWN ON
THE 12Z YPL RAOB HAVE BROUGHT QUITE A BIT OF CLD COVER TO MUCH OF
THE CWA...AND THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN A FEW -SHRA...MAINLY OVER THE E
HALF OF UPR MI. THE CLDS HAVE BEEN MORE SCT NEAR THE WI BORDER AND
ESPECIALLY THE SCENTRAL...WHERE LLVL NW FLOW BTWN SFC LO PRES MOVING
INTO QUEBEC AND HI PRES IN THE PLAINS IS DOWNSLOPING.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MAINLY LO CLD TRENDS/TEMPS.
TNGT...SINCE THE UPR PATTERN IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...MODELS SHOW UPR
RDG AXIS TO THE W SLIDING E AND OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z
TUE... WITH SFC HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING LLVL THERMAL TROF/CYC NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CLDS
OVER THE E HALF THIS EVNG...ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS AND
BACKING LLVL FLOW TO THE W AND THEN SW WL CAUSE SKIES TO TURN MOCLR.
THERE COULD BE SOME MID/HI CLDS OVER MAINLY THE NW LATER IN THE
RETURN SW FLOW...BUT THE BULK OF THIS CLD SHOULD STAY IN CANADA.
EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL...WHERE SKIES
WL BE MOCLR/WINDS LIGHTER THRU THE NGT.
TUE...THE CWA WL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG SW FLOW UNDER SHARPENING
PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND SFC LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA RIDING OVER THE UPR RDG. ALTHOUGH
SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE/WAD WL
BRUSH THE NW CWA...FCST SDNGS SHOW SO MUCH LO-MID DRY AIR THAT THE
ONLY IMPACT WL BE SOME HI CLDS. 12Z NAM/GFS SHOW SW H925 WINDS
INCRSG TO 45-50 KTS IN THE AFTN OVER THE WRN CWA TO THE S OF PRES
FALL CENTER OVER NW ONTARIO E OF THE SFC LO CENTER. MIXING TO H925
ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS APRCHG 70 OVER THE W AND HINTS SOME
WIND GUSTS MAY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS
OVER THE W.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PEELING OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND A LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL WARM AIR OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S) THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR
WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOW IN
CANADA WEAKENING WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF FOG IN THE NAM/SREF OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THAT STARTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND IT SEEMS LIKE A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
THAT MAY NOT BE TOO UNREASONABLE BUT DIDN/T ADD ANY FOG AT THIS
TIME.
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AROUND MID
WEEK WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND THEN INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK BUT THE CWA SHOULD STILL SEE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LINE OF SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS. DID PUT IN A
MENTION OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...AS THERE IS A POCKET OF MARGINAL MUCAPE VALUES ALONG THE
FRONT (ALONG WITH SHOWALTER APPROACHING ZERO).
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY BEGIN TO GROW ON
THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES AFFECTING THE AREA. BUT THE LARGER SCALE
IDEA OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BEING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH.
00Z/12Z ECMWF/GEM RUNS ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EJECTING
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS (LIKE IT/S PREVIOUS RUN) STILL
HOLDS ONTO THE DRIER IDEA AND NO SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. SINCE IT
IS STILL A WAYS OFF...WILL FOLLOW A HIGH END SLIGHT AND LOW END
CHANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POPS AND SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS GO. IF
THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...COULD SEE A DECENT RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013
DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVING FROM THE WRN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUE WILL ENSURE
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS
SCNTRL CANADA WILL LEAD TO LLWS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AT
KIWD. DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL THEN LEAD
TO GUSTY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS TUE. WITH KIWD/KSAW MORE EXPOSED TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR HIGHER AT THOSE TERMINALS
IN THE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013
EXPECT NW WINDS UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH
STEADILY W-E TONIGHT AS A HI PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
A STRONGER S FLOW...WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KTS...WILL THEN DOMINATE
LATER TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE E AND A SHARPER
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A LO PRES SYSTEM MOVING THRU
SCENTRAL CANADA GETS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER LAKES. PLAN ON LIGHTER
S-SW WINDS WED THRU SAT AS THE HI TO THE E REBUILDS BACK TOWARD THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A WEAKER GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
331 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR ACROSS THE
CWA. A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EXTENDED FROM THE ARROWHEAD
THROUGH AITKIN INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING
THIS BAND DEVELOPING TODAY...BUT WAS A BIT TOO STRONG AND SLOW WITH
IT. WE HAVE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER OUR FAR EASTERN MN CWA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ANY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CLEARING WAS ALSO WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN
CWA...AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WE DO DECREASE SKY COVER TO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE MID THIRTIES TO AROUND FORTY. WE DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
DECOUPLE OVER A LARGE AREA...BUT A FEW FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKELY WILL
SUCH AS KHIB/KBFW AND WE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT MORE THERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER FIFTIES TO LOWER
SIXTIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SW FLOW WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM H92-H85 TEMPS BY
MID WEEK. HAVE INCREASED THE SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 40-50 KT LLJ PUSHES OVER MINNESOTA
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE DLH CWA SHOW WINDS AROUND 35 KT IN THE MIX LAYER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 60 TO LOW 70S. HOWEVER...HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF TEMPERATURES WARM JUST A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ALLOWING
FOR DEEPER MIXING.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FCST FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS A STRONG
VORT MAX /WITH CLOSED H85-H50 LOW/ ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS
AND ONGOING RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS FOUND
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT 100 PM...THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM
KBRD....SOUTHWEST TO KDTL AND KYKN. THE CLEARING LINE WILL VERY
SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH THE TAF. THE KINL AREA WILL SEE THE
RETURN OF VFR CIGS BY 20Z...REACHING KBRD IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND FINALLY KHYR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 39 60 42 67 / 10 0 0 0
INL 37 61 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 39 64 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 39 61 39 70 / 30 10 0 0
ASX 42 61 43 70 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1243 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW NEARS THE
NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WE
CONTINUE TO GET GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AT THE HEAD OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND WE`LL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
DOUGLAS...SOUTHERN SAINT LOUIS...CARLTON...AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 10 PM. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN WILL BE
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
RAIN WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR WERE DEPICTING. WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BECOMING WIDESPREAD. WE`VE SEEN
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CLOSE TO THE AREA...SO ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A STORM TO ALL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THEN TO EASTERN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE AND AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED TODAY AND WHAT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
THOUGH...AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY...AND OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 OVER OUR WESTERN/SOUTHEAST
ZONES...WITH AREAS BETWEEN AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
TAIL END OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMTS WILL BE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEFORE A WEAK SFC FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND USHERS IN
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WED AND THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
COUNTIES. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN US WILL AMPLIFY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A TROUGH IN THE WEST DEEPENS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST BY THE WEEKEND AND BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK WITH VERY MILD
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY IN
THE WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY CHILLY INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S...BUT
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
BAND OF RAIN OVER THE TERMINALS AS OF MIDNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NORTH AND NARROW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH -RA OR -DZ. SUNDAY MORNING CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST EXPECTED AFTER 22Z. CLEAR AND COLD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AFTER THAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 40 62 41 64 / 20 10 0 0
INL 37 62 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 39 65 42 68 / 10 0 0 0
HYR 40 61 41 67 / 30 10 0 0
ASX 43 62 43 66 / 40 10 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
140>143-146>148.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
219 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT...CURRENTLY NEAR THE NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER...WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THIS
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/WV...MOST EVIDENT IN THE 700 MB WIND FIELD OVER WRN NY...AND
NEARLY STNRY FNTL BNDRY ACRS THE TWIN TIERS...HELPING TO TRIGGER
SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE FCST AREA. RUC INDICATES THAT ANOTHER WEAK
S/WV OVER SW PA WILL MAKE A RUN TWDS THE SRN TIER TWDS MRNG WHICH
MAY TRIGGER MORE SCT ACTIVITY. 925-850 RH`S SUGGEST THE CNTRL SRN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES BREAK OUT THIS AFTN (ALSO PORTIONS OF NE PA)
LOW CLD AND COOLER TEMPS XPCTD ACRS ERN ZONES...PRIMARILY THE
CATSKILLS...ERN SUSQ RGN AND WRN MOHAWK VLY WHERE MOIST LOW LVL
SELY FLOW HELPS KEEP MSTR LOCKED IN. INTERESTINGLY..THE LCL WRF
SUGGESTS THAT DIFF HEATING DUE TO THESE CLDS MAY HELP TO TRIGGER
SCT TSRA OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER THIS AFTN. WILL
KEEP HIEST POPS ACRS NRN ZONES TDA...WITH MAXES FROM THE U70S WRN
ZONES TO M/U60S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.
A RELATIVE LACK OF PCPN IS XPCTD TNGT. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SELY
FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW CLDS/STRATUS BACK INTO THE FCST AREA OVRNGT.
LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD...FROM THE MID AND PSBLY U60S ACRS THE
FINGER LAKES...TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIG CHGS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
00Z GFS AND 12Z EURO...WHICH ADVERTISED A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF
THE FNT/UPR TROF THRU THE FCST AREA. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MRNG...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT NRN STREAM S/WV WILL
GIVE THIS SYSTEM A NUDGE AND KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVS NEWD.
THEREFORE WE SPED UP THE FNTL TIMING...XPCTNG IT TO PASS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL REDUCE THE POTNL FOR FLOODING PRBLMS...BUT WITH
PW`S IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RNG...+RA WILL BE PSBL IN ADDITION TO
EMBEDDED TSRA. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE FALLING SPCLY W OF I-81 DURING
THE AFTN POST FROPA.
POTNL FOR SOME -SHRA ACRS FAR NRN ZONES DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS
OF THE UPR TROF AND NW FLOW. HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE OH VLY/GTLAKES ON TUE...WITH MRNG CLDS GIVING WAY TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS RIDGING OCCURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS INDICATE A SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITHIN THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S WHILE THE HIGHS WILL RUN
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAXES FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST OVER THE KRME/KSYR TERMINALS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BUT IN GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR. ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR
AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BRING MVFR CIGS BACK ACROSS TERMINALS BEFORE
06Z WITH ALL TERMINALS BUT KSYR OCCASIONALLY FALLING BELOW IFR
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. MONDAY MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR
KSYR/KITH/KELM INCLUDED MVFR SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING
AROUND 14Z-16Z. THIS ACTIVITY WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
KRME/KBGM/KAVP TERMINALS AS FRONT WILL JUST REACH AIRPORTS AT OR
JUST SLIGHTLY AFTER 18Z WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS. SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF AREA BUT MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
TUE THRU FRIDAY...VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1228 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT...CURRENTLY NEAR THE NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER...WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THIS
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/WV...MOST EVIDENT IN THE 700 MB WIND FIELD OVER WRN NY...AND
NEARLY STNRY FNTL BNDRY ACRS THE TWIN TIERS...HELPING TO TRIGGER
SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE FCST AREA. RUC INDICATES THAT ANOTHER WEAK
S/WV OVER SW PA WILL MAKE A RUN TWDS THE SRN TIER TWDS MRNG WHICH
MAY TRIGGER MORE SCT ACTIVITY. 925-850 RH`S SUGGEST THE CNTRL SRN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES BREAK OUT THIS AFTN (ALSO PORTIONS OF NE PA)
LOW CLD AND COOLER TEMPS XPCTD ACRS ERN ZONES...PRIMARILY THE
CATSKILLS...ERN SUSQ RGN AND WRN MOHAWK VLY WHERE MOIST LOW LVL
SELY FLOW HELPS KEEP MSTR LOCKED IN. INTERESTINGLY..THE LCL WRF
SUGGESTS THAT DIFF HEATING DUE TO THESE CLDS MAY HELP TO TRIGGER
SCT TSRA OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER THIS AFTN. WILL
KEEP HIEST POPS ACRS NRN ZONES TDA...WITH MAXES FROM THE U70S WRN
ZONES TO M/U60S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.
A RELATIVE LACK OF PCPN IS XPCTD TNGT. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SELY
FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW CLDS/STRATUS BACK INTO THE FCST AREA OVRNGT.
LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD...FROM THE MID AND PSBLY U60S ACRS THE
FINGER LAKES...TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIG CHGS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
00Z GFS AND 12Z EURO...WHICH ADVERTISED A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF
THE FNT/UPR TROF THRU THE FCST AREA. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MRNG...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT NRN STREAM S/WV WILL
GIVE THIS SYSTEM A NUDGE AND KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVS NEWD.
THEREFORE WE SPED UP THE FNTL TIMING...XPCTNG IT TO PASS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL REDUCE THE POTNL FOR FLOODING PRBLMS...BUT WITH
PW`S IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RNG...+RA WILL BE PSBL IN ADDITION TO
EMBEDDED TSRA. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE FALLING SPCLY W OF I-81 DURING
THE AFTN POST FROPA.
POTNL FOR SOME -SHRA ACRS FAR NRN ZONES DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS
OF THE UPR TROF AND NW FLOW. HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE OH VLY/GTLAKES ON TUE...WITH MRNG CLDS GIVING WAY TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS RIDGING OCCURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS INDICATE A SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITHIN THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S WHILE THE HIGHS WILL RUN
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAXES FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR KBGM TO
DROP BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z. RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD RISE TO VFR/MVFR AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING, WITH VFR AT KAVP
AND MVFR AT NY TERMINALS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD IMPACT
KELM AND KITH BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z THEN MOVING INTO KSYR/KRME
TERMINALS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. TRIED TO INDICATE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH RME/SYR EXPERIENCING SHOWERS BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z AND
KELM/KITH AND KBGM BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z. HOWEVER, SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AT ANYTIME AND POSSIBLY THUNDER AS WELL.
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AT KRME AND KSYR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR
THOUGH STILL A CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LOW MVFR
AND IFR WILL EXIST TOWARD END OF TAF VALID TIME AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LGT SRLY SFC WINDS EARLY...WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE...AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED...ALG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF RESTRICTIVE CONDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
TUE NGT THRU THUR...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT...CURRENTLY NEAR THE NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER...WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THIS
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/WV...MOST EVIDENT IN THE 700 MB WIND FIELD OVER WRN NY...AND
NEARLY STNRY FNTL BNDRY ACRS THE TWIN TIERS...HELPING TO TRIGGER
SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE FCST AREA. RUC INDICATES THAT ANOTHER WEAK
S/WV OVER SW PA WILL MAKE A RUN TWDS THE SRN TIER TWDS MRNG WHICH
MAY TRIGGER MORE SCT ACTIVITY. 925-850 RH`S SUGGEST THE CNTRL SRN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES BREAK OUT THIS AFTN (ALSO PORTIONS OF NE PA)
LOW CLD AND COOLER TEMPS XPCTD ACRS ERN ZONES...PRIMARILY THE
CATSKILLS...ERN SUSQ RGN AND WRN MOHAWK VLY WHERE MOIST LOW LVL
SELY FLOW HELPS KEEP MSTR LOCKED IN. INTERESTINGLY..THE LCL WRF
SUGGESTS THAT DIFF HEATING DUE TO THESE CLDS MAY HELP TO TRIGGER
SCT TSRA OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER THIS AFTN. WILL
KEEP HIEST POPS ACRS NRN ZONES TDA...WITH MAXES FROM THE U70S WRN
ZONES TO M/U60S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.
A RELATIVE LACK OF PCPN IS XPCTD TNGT. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SELY
FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW CLDS/STRATUS BACK INTO THE FCST AREA OVRNGT.
LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD...FROM THE MID AND PSBLY U60S ACRS THE
FINGER LAKES...TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIG CHGS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
00Z GFS AND 12Z EURO...WHICH ADVERTISED A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF
THE FNT/UPR TROF THRU THE FCST AREA. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MRNG...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT NRN STREAM S/WV WILL
GIVE THIS SYSTEM A NUDGE AND KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVS NEWD.
THEREFORE WE SPED UP THE FNTL TIMING...XPCTNG IT TO PASS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL REDUCE THE POTNL FOR FLOODING PRBLMS...BUT WITH
PW`S IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RNG...+RA WILL BE PSBL IN ADDITION TO
EMBEDDED TSRA. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE FALLING SPCLY W OF I-81 DURING
THE AFTN POST FROPA.
POTNL FOR SOME -SHRA ACRS FAR NRN ZONES DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS
OF THE UPR TROF AND NW FLOW. HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE OH VLY/GTLAKES ON TUE...WITH MRNG CLDS GIVING WAY TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS RIDGING OCCURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
HIPRES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WL KEEP THE LONG TERM QUIET. HV
GONE COMPLETELY DRY TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH BOTH GFS
COMING INTO LINE WITH THE FASTER EURO IN BUILDING THE RIDGE IN BY
TUE AND WELL-ESTABLISHED BY WED. STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO START
OFF SEASONAL AND THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
240 PM EDT UPDATE...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED THAN IN
THE NEAR TERM. THE UPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE AN UPPER AND LOWER LVL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FROM LINGERING
MOISTURE OF KAREN BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THEREAFTER. WENT
CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE VERY MINIMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPS STARTING
WED THROUGH SAT WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS WELL... WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
BE FOR THE MOST PART PARTLY CLOUDY. THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE SEASONABLE NORM BUT ARE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. COOLER TEMPS ARE
AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR KBGM TO
DROP BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z. RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD RISE TO VFR/MVFR AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING, WITH VFR AT KAVP
AND MVFR AT NY TERMINALS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND SHOULD IMPACT
KELM AND KITH BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z THEN MOVING INTO KSYR/KRME
TERMINALS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. TRIED TO INDICATE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH RME/SYR EXPERIENCING SHOWERS BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z AND
KELM/KITH AND KBGM BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z. HOWEVER, SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AT ANYTIME AND POSSIBLY THUNDER AS WELL.
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AT KRME AND KSYR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR
THOUGH STILL A CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LOW MVFR
AND IFR WILL EXIST TOWARD END OF TAF VALID TIME AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LGT SRLY SFC WINDS EARLY...WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE...AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED...ALG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF RESTRICTIVE CONDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
TUE NGT THRU THUR...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
304 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT...CURRENTLY NEAR THE NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER...WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THIS
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/WV...MOST EVIDENT IN THE 700 MB WIND FIELD OVER WRN NY...AND
NEARLY STNRY FNTL BNDRY ACRS THE TWIN TIERS...HELPING TO TRIGGER
SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE FCST AREA. RUC INDICATES THAT ANOTHER WEAK
S/WV OVER SW PA WILL MAKE A RUN TWDS THE SRN TIER TWDS MRNG WHICH
MAY TRIGGER MORE SCT ACTIVITY. 925-850 RH`S SUGGEST THE CNTRL SRN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES BREAK OUT THIS AFTN (ALSO PORTIONS OF NE PA)
LOW CLD AND COOLER TEMPS XPCTD ACRS ERN ZONES...PRIMARILY THE
CATSKILLS...ERN SUSQ RGN AND WRN MOHAWK VLY WHERE MOIST LOW LVL
SELY FLOW HELPS KEEP MSTR LOCKED IN. INTERESTINGLY..THE LCL WRF
SUGGESTS THAT DIFF HEATING DUE TO THESE CLDS MAY HELP TO TRIGGER
SCT TSRA OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER THIS AFTN. WILL
KEEP HIEST POPS ACRS NRN ZONES TDA...WITH MAXES FROM THE U70S WRN
ZONES TO M/U60S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.
A RELATIVE LACK OF PCPN IS XPCTD TNGT. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SELY
FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW CLDS/STRATUS BACK INTO THE FCST AREA OVRNGT.
LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD...FROM THE MID AND PSBLY U60S ACRS THE
FINGER LAKES...TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIG CHGS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
00Z GFS AND 12Z EURO...WHICH ADVERTISED A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF
THE FNT/UPR TROF THRU THE FCST AREA. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MRNG...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT NRN STREAM S/WV WILL
GIVE THIS SYSTEM A NUDGE AND KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVS NEWD.
THEREFORE WE SPED UP THE FNTL TIMING...XPCTNG IT TO PASS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL REDUCE THE POTNL FOR FLOODING PRBLMS...BUT WITH
PW`S IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RNG...+RA WILL BE PSBL IN ADDITION TO
EMBEDDED TSRA. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE FALLING SPCLY W OF I-81 DURING
THE AFTN POST FROPA.
POTNL FOR SOME -SHRA ACRS FAR NRN ZONES DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS
OF THE UPR TROF AND NW FLOW. HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE OH VLY/GTLAKES ON TUE...WITH MRNG CLDS GIVING WAY TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS RIDGING OCCURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
HIPRES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WL KEEP THE LONG TERM QUIET. HV
GONE COMPLETELY DRY TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH BOTH GFS
COMING INTO LINE WITH THE FASTER EURO IN BUILDING THE RIDGE IN BY
TUE AND WELL-ESTABLISHED BY WED. STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO START
OFF SEASONAL AND THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
240 PM EDT UPDATE...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED THAN IN
THE NEAR TERM. THE UPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE AN UPPER AND LOWER LVL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FROM LINGERING
MOISTURE OF KAREN BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THEREAFTER. WENT
CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE VERY MINIMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPS STARTING
WED THROUGH SAT WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS WELL... WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
BE FOR THE MOST PART PARTLY CLOUDY. THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE SEASONABLE NORM BUT ARE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. COOLER TEMPS ARE
AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING AS AREA REMAINS
IN MOIST AIRMASS COURTESY OF STATIONARY FRONT. KITH AND KBGM WILL
BE BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z THIS MORNING,
BEFORE GRADUALLY COMING UP. ELSEWHERE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR WILL
SET IN THROUGH 14Z.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AND MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KELM/KITH AND KAVP WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIED
TO INDICATE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH RME/SYR EXPERIENCING
SHOWERS BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z AND KELM/KITH AND KBGM BETWEEN 15Z AND
19Z. HOWEVER, SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AT ANYTIME AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
AS WELL.
LGT/VRB SFC WINDS EARLY...WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN...INCREASING TO 8-12
KT.
OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE...AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED...ALG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF RESTRICTIVE CONDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
TUE NGT THRU THUR...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/PVN
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
257 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT...CURRENTLY NEAR THE NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER...WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THIS
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/WV...MOST EVIDENT IN THE 700 MB WIND FIELD OVER WRN NY...AND
NEARLY STNRY FNTL BNDRY ACRS THE TWIN TIERS...HELPING TO TRIGGER
SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE FCST AREA. RUC INDICATES THAT ANOTHER WEAK
S/WV OVER SW PA WILL MAKE A RUN TWDS THE SRN TIER TWDS MRNG WHICH
MAY TRIGGER MORE SCT ACTIVITY. 925-850 RH`S SUGGEST THE CNTRL SRN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES BREAK OUT THIS AFTN (ALSO PORTIONS OF NE PA)
LOW CLD AND COOLER TEMPS XPCTD ACRS ERN ZONES...PRIMARILY THE
CATSKILLS...ERN SUSQ RGN AND WRN MOHAWK VLY WHERE MOIST LOW LVL
SELY FLOW HELPS KEEP MSTR LOCKED IN. INTERESTINGLY..THE LCL WRF
SUGGESTS THAT DIFF HEATING DUE TO THESE CLDS MAY HELP TO TRIGGER
SCT TSRA OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER THIS AFTN. WILL
KEEP HIEST POPS ACRS NRN ZONES TDA...WITH MAXES FROM THE U70S WRN
ZONES TO M/U60S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.
A RELATIVE LACK OF PCPN IS XPCTD TNGT. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SELY
FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW CLDS/STRATUS BACK INTO THE FCST AREA OVRNGT.
LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD...FROM THE MID AND PSBLY U60S ACRS THE
FINGER LAKES...TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIG CHGS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
00Z GFS AND 12Z EURO...WHICH ADVERTISED A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF
THE FNT/UPR TROF THRU THE FCST AREA. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MRNG...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT NRN STREAM S/WV WILL
GIVE THIS SYSTEM A NUDGE AND KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVS NEWD.
THEREFORE WE SPED UP THE FNTL TIMING...XPCTNG IT TO PASS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL REDUCE THE POTNL FOR FLOODING PRBLMS...BUT WITH
PW`S IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RNG...+RA WILL BE PSBL IN ADDITION TO
EMBEDDED TSRA. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE FALLING SPCLY W OF I-81 DURING
THE AFTN POST FROPA.
POTNL FOR SOME -SHRA ACRS FAR NRN ZONES DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS
OF THE UPR TROF AND NW FLOW. HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE OH VLY/GTLAKES ON TUE...WITH MRNG CLDS GIVING WAY TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS RIDGING OCCURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM EDT UPDATE...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED THAN IN
THE NEAR TERM. THE UPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE AN UPPER AND LOWER LVL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FROM LINGERING
MOISTURE OF KAREN BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THEREAFTER. WENT
CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE VERY MINIMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPS STARTING
WED THROUGH SAT WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS WELL... WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
BE FOR THE MOST PART PARTLY CLOUDY. THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE SEASONABLE NORM BUT ARE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. COOLER TEMPS ARE
AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING AS AREA REMAINS
IN MOIST AIRMASS COURTESY OF STATIONARY FRONT. KITH AND KBGM WILL
BE BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z THIS MORNING,
BEFORE GRADUALLY COMING UP. ELSEWHERE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR WILL
SET IN THROUGH 14Z.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AND MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KELM/KITH AND KAVP WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIED
TO INDICATE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH RME/SYR EXPERIENCING
SHOWERS BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z AND KELM/KITH AND KBGM BETWEEN 15Z AND
19Z. HOWEVER, SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AT ANYTIME AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
AS WELL.
LGT/VRB SFC WINDS EARLY...WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN...INCREASING TO 8-12
KT.
OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE...AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED...ALG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF RESTRICTIVE CONDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
TUE NGT THRU THUR...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
256 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT. CURRENTLY NEAR THE NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER, WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THIS
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/WV...MOST EVIDENT IN THE 700 MB WIND FIELD OVER WRN NY...AND
NEARLY STNRY FNTL BNDRY ACRS THE TWIN TIERS...HELPING TO TRIGGER
SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE FCST AREA. RUC INDICATES THAT ANOTHER WEAK
S/WV OVER SW PA WILL MAKE A RUN TWDS THE SRN TIER TWDS MRNG WHICH
MAY TRIGGER MORE SCT ACTIVITY. 925-850 RH`S SUGGEST THE CNTRL SRN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES BREAK OUT THIS AFTN (ALSO PORTIONS OF NE PA)
LOW CLD AND COOLER TEMPS XPCTD ACRS ERN ZONES...PRIMARILY THE
CATSKILLS...ERN SUSQ RGN AND WRN MOHAWK VLY WHERE MOIST LOW LVL
SELY FLOW HELPS KEEP MSTR LOCKED IN. INTERESTINGLY..THE LCL WRF
SUGGESTS THAT DIFF HEATING DUE TO THESE CLDS MAY HELP TO TRIGGER
SCT TSRA OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER THIS AFTN. WILL
KEEP HIEST POPS ACRS NRN ZONES TDA...WITH MAXES FROM THE U70S WRN
ZONES TO M/U60S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.
A RELATIVE LACK OF PCPN IS XPCTD TNGT. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SELY
FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW CLDS/STRATUS BACK INTO THE FCST AREA OVRNGT.
LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD...FROM THE MID AND PSBLY U60S ACRS THE
FINGER LAKES...TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIG CHGS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
00Z GFS AND 12Z EURO...WHICH ADVERTISED A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF
THE FNT/UPR TROF THRU THE FCST AREA. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MRNG...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT NRN STREAM S/WV WILL
GIVE THIS SYSTEM A NUDGE AND KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVS NEWD.
THEREFORE WE SPED UP THE FNTL TIMING...XPCTNG IT TO PASS ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL REDUCE THE POTNL FOR FLOODING PRBLMS...BUT WITH
PW`S IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 RNG...+RA WILL BE PSBL IN ADDITION TO
EMBEDDED TSRA. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE FALLING SPCLY W OF I-81 DURING
THE AFTN POST FROPA.
POTNL FOR SOME -SHRA ACRS FAR NRN ZONES DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS
OF THE UPR TROF AND NW FLOW. HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE OH VLY/GTLAKES ON TUE...WITH MRNG CLDS GIVING WAY TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS RIDGING OCCURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM EDT UPDATE...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED THAN IN
THE NEAR TERM. THE UPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE AN UPPER AND LOWER LVL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FROM LINGERING
MOISTURE OF KAREN BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THEREAFTER. WENT
CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE VERY MINIMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPS STARTING
WED THROUGH SAT WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS WELL... WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
BE FOR THE MOST PART PARTLY CLOUDY. THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE SEASONABLE NORM BUT ARE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. COOLER TEMPS ARE
AHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING AS AREA REMAINS
IN MOIST AIRMASS COURTESY OF STATIONARY FRONT. KITH AND KBGM WILL
BE BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z THIS MORNING,
BEFORE GRADUALLY COMING UP. ELSEWHERE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR WILL
SET IN THROUGH 14Z.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AND MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KELM/KITH AND KAVP WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIED
TO INDICATE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH RME/SYR EXPERIENCING
SHOWERS BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z AND KELM/KITH AND KBGM BETWEEN 15Z AND
19Z. HOWEVER, SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AT ANYTIME AND POSSIBLY THUNDER
AS WELL.
LGT/VRB SFC WINDS EARLY...WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN...INCREASING TO 8-12
KT.
OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE...AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED...ALG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF RESTRICTIVE CONDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
TUE NGT THRU THUR...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
403 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OFFSHORE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATERS OVER OUR WESTERN CWA. THE 3 KM HRRR MODEL HAS A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THIS EVENING
MAINLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. THE AXIS OF HIGH MOISTURE
MOVES TO THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE LOW POPS COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM 00Z TO 06Z BEFORE INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LEADS TO POPS AREA-WIDE TOWARD MORNING. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 65 TO
70 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUN...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE DAY WEARS ON. THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH LI`S IN THE
-2 TO -3 RANGE...FOR A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. QPF TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN A FEW DOWNPOURS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PARENT UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH NORTHERN JET STREAM EARLY
THIS WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A PIECE
OF ENERGY BECOMING LEFT BEHIND AND MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE AREA
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER.
THIS THINKING BASED ON BULK OF SPAGHETTI MODELS INDICATING CLOSED OR
CUT OFF H580-582M LOW IN WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SFC REFLECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE TO MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND MEANDER JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS TO THE COASTAL OBX AREAS.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES ON TUE WITH HIGH
CHANCE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. FOR WED...CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY
THOUGH IF WETTER TREND HOLDS THEY WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AS WELL.
UPPER LOW MAY DRIFT NORTH BY LATE WEEK TAKING BEST SHOWER CHANCES
WITH IT. BEST POPS WILL RESIDE IN THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...ESP FOR MAX T`S AS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS HOLD TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...WITH AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE OVER OUR
WESTERN CWA...KOAJ AND KISO AND PERHAPS KPGV WILL SEE SOME PASSING
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL INCLUDE A VICINITY
SHOWER IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE TAF FOR THESE SITES. MOS GDNC
IS INDICATING ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...AND LIGHT SRLY FLOW
LIKELY TO RESULT IN STRATUS CIGS NEAR 1K FT. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH E NC MON NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AN ISO THUNDERSTORM. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
TO POTENTIALLY IFR MON NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH UPPER LOW LINGERING
OVER THE VICINITY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS WELL WITH HIGH
PRES INLAND AND LOW PRES OVER THE WATERS PRODUCING TIGHT GRADIENT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...S/SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. PER LOCAL NWPS MODEL...SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHERN WATERS. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE ON MONDAY...SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO START A BIT
EARLIER AT AROUND 08Z OR SO TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS LATE MON NIGHT
AS A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN
SHARPLY NORTHEAST FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE NIGHT...WITH THE
SURGE REACHING THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL RESPOND
BY BUILDING TO ABOVE 6 FEET. THE NORTHEAST SURGE WILL BE PROLONGED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES WILL BE WEDGED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CAROLINAS WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRES OFF THE COAST.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
953 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL
OFFSHORE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DISSIPATING
AS DRIER AIR MIXES TO THE SURFACE. DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE COAST...LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR
CAPE FEAR AND STREAMING NORTH INTO ONSLOW AND DUPLIN COUNTIES.
LATEST 3 KM HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE SHOWERS AND THEY MAY
MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS THE GREENVILLE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A 20 TO 30 PCT POP WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 INTO THE AFTERNOON. NO
OTHER MAJOR CHANGES...AS PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN GET WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...WITH SCT SHOWERS FROM OFF THE WATER
AFFECTING MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS. THUS NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS 20/30
POPS. SRLY FLOW AND AT LEAST PT CLDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS UP FOR
LOWS MAINLY UPR 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUN...BY MON MORNING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WITH A
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MON NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING N/NE BY TUES
MORNING. MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS/WX/QPF WITH OVERALL DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT. HELD ONTO MID 80S FOR MAX TEMPS MON AS GOOD INSOLATION
SHOULD EXIST EARLY ON ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND FROM
MORNING MINS. PRECIP/CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MON NIGHT ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST OFF THE COAST
TUES THEN SAGGING SOUTH SLIGHTLY TUES NIGHT INTO WED. STRONG RIDGE
WILL SETUP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TUES/TUES NIGHT AND RESIDE
THERE THROUGH LATE WEEK. TRENDED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST MODEL
BLEND WITH CHANCE POPS TUES MORN...DIMINISHING TO 10 PERCENT INLAND
WITH LOW SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST/SOUTHERN OBX TUES
NIGHT THROUGH WED. NE SURFACE FLOW WITH WEAK/BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
THE REGION WED WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.
LATE WEEK FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY STALLED WELL OFF
THE COAST. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES GREATER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE THURS
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPING A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFF THE COAST WHICH RETROGRADES OVER EASTERN NC WED NIGHT INTO
THURS...WHILE THE 00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION AND
KEEPS ITS ENERGY FARTHER OFF THE COAST. HEDGED TOWARDS A MODEL
BLEND FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHER WEIGHT ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. NE
SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS THEN SHIFT N FRI INTO
SAT...WITH SPEEDS DEPENDENT ON LOW DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WED-SAT WILL
REMAIN 3-6 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MON/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...CURRENT WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT
TO VFR BY 14Z. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
REST OF TODAY INTO THESE EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT
MAINLY SRN SECTIONS LATE MORNING AND AFTN. MOS GDNC IS INDICATING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT...BUT WINDS NOT
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...AND LIGHT SRLY FLOW LIKELY TO RESULT IN
STRATUS CIGS NEAR 1K FT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
NUMEROUS MON INTO MON NIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS FROM LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WED AND THURS BUT WILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE
COAST SO CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP POSSIBILITY MAINLY FOR EWN/OAJ. NE
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2
FEET CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WINDS/SEAS BUILD TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM MARINE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SUN...MODEST CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM MARINE
FORECAST. ADJUSTED SCA TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING ON TIMING OF SE
WINDS APPROACHING 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT FROM OFF OREGON
INLET SOUTH TO ONSLOW BAY...MID MORNING MON TO MON EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND EXPECT SE WINDS
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT TUES WITH N/NE WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 6+ FT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN
LIKELY FROM TUES INTO THURS. LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL AND 00Z
WW3 GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUES. WW3 WITH SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS WAS USED WED/THURS ALTHOUGH WINDS/SEAS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IF 00Z ECMWF SCENARIO OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NC
COAST COMES TO FRUITION.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/CTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
900 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY BEFORE PROGRESSING
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM SUNDAY...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM. FOG SHOULD START TO
LIFT BETWEEN 9 AM AND 10 AM. HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST SHOWS A RAPID
REDUCTION IN FOG BY 14Z. A FEW SPOTS MAY EXTENDED JUST PAST 14Z IN
TERMS OF LOCALLY DENSE...BUT ANTICIPATE IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
MID-MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 250J/KG. GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY BELOW WHAT IS A
GOOD CAP AROUND 600MB ON KGSO AND KMHX SOUNDINGS...A FEW SHOWERS
WERE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF SAMPSON
COUNTY DURING THE MID-MORNING. AS THE GFS WAS THE LONE MODEL TO DO
IT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW ON BOARD WITH
ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMEB
TO KRWI DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY OF ROUGHLY 100 TO 300J/KG OF MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM...AND JUST ENOUGH LIFT IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE
CAP. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW-TOPPED AND LIKELY WITHOUT THUNDER...BUT
HAVE SPREAD ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FARTHER
NORTHWEST WITH THE MID-MORNING UPDATE. CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED MAXES A
DEGREE OR TWO IN MANY AREAS...MOSTLY SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
-DJF
OVERNIGHT...DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION /MARGINAL INSTABILITY/ SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS WHERE LIFT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...CHANCES WILL
BE MUCH LOWER...THOUGH AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
GIVEN AN ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
-VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES:
ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF
CENTRAL NC ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC MON INTO MON NIGHT...HEIGHT FALLS
AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW
ALOFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FORCING
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON MONDAY...ESP WITH EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY (1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE). WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN 80-100%...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 15Z MONDAY MORNING
AND 00-03Z MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES:
HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE DICTATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION. GIVEN THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE
MORNING FROM THE WEST...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS (MID 70S) IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND WARMEST (LOW/MID 80S) IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS W/REGARD TO THE TIMING OF FROPA MON EVE/NIGHT.
GIVEN THAT TEMPS WILL ENTIRELY DEPEND ON COLD ADVECTION...LOWS ARE
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION TUE MORNING. THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES
FROPA SHOULD OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT (EARLIEST W/NW AND LATEST SE)...WITH
PRONOUNCED PRESSURE RISES RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS (10-15
KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT) /STRONG COLD ADVECTION/ MON
NIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWS FALLING TO
NEAR 50F IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT AND INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE ELSE
(UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN)...FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO DECREASE LOWS A GOOD 5-8F FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
SEVERE THREAT:
RELATIVELY STRONG/VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 150-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH
TONIGHT THROUGH ~18Z MON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE INTO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT (IN RELATIVE CLOSER VICINITY TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW) WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
35-45 KT...SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW...AND LCL`S WILL BE VERY LOW
AT 500-1000M. THIS IS ALL PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF GOOD
LOW-LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AND POSSIBLY DPVA ASSOC/W SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES
IN SW FLOW ALOFT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE
OH VALLEY. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT A THREAT FOR ISOLD
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD APPEAR TO BE GREATEST ALONG AND
WEST OF HWY 1 AND PRIOR TO ~18Z (GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS)...BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND HODOGRAPHS
STRAIGHTEN. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ARE NOT INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK ON
FUTURE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS FOR MONDAY. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 229 AM SUNDAY...
A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO OUR REGION COURTESY OF THE
STRONG (1030 MB) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO
BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
FORECAST QUESTION WILL BE THE EXTENT OF THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE EAST AND SOUTH TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDINESS/LIGHT RAIN MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED
BY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER SUPPORT TO LINGER ALONG THE SE US
COAST INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. NOT ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ON BOARD
WITH THE LINGERING UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER... THERE APPEARS TO BE
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN AT LEAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY DUE TO THE MOIST ONSHORE NE FLOW ALONG THE COAST EXTENDING
INLAND INTO THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH DRIER
AIR INLAND WHERE THE PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE AMPLE CLEARING TUESDAY AS
THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR DIVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY... A CHANCE OF LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SE ZONES
EARLY TUESDAY... THEN VARIABLY CLOUDY BREEZY AND COOLER. PARTLY
SUNNY ELSEWHERE... BREEZY AND COOLER TUESDAY. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL (HIGHS 70-75)... LOWS 50-55.
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HAS BECOME MUDDLED IN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES WITHIN THE
MODELS RANGING FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE SE COAST... TO EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING MID/UPPER LOW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BACK TOWARD... OR EVEN INLAND... ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TRENDS ARE FOR THE VERY LEAST A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN... WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WETNESS LATE IN
THE WEEK. FOR NOW... WE WILL SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WED-THU... WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN BY FRI-SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THE COOL TEMPERATURE RESUME THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE NE. LOWS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 50S BY SAT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 900 AM SUNDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS
(THOUGH VERY NEAR THE RDU TERMINAL) WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT TO VFR
BY 15Z THIS MORNING. AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500-4500 FT AGL. ISOLD LOW- TOPPED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS BUT MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT (04Z) WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (INT/GSO TERMINALS) BY
SUNRISE MON.
LOOKING AHEAD:
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FCST INCREASES THEREAFTER. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM
WEST-EAST MON EVENING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST TO THE CAROLINA
COAST BEFORE STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE. SUB-VFR CEILINGS MAY
PERSIST MON NIGHT INTO TUE...ESP IN EASTERN TERMINALS IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO THE STALLED FRONT. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ010-011-
026>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...DJF/VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
229 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON... THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 850 PM SATURDAY...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TRENDS PROVIDE LITTLE REASON TO STRAY FROM
PERSISTENCE...FROM BOTH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND PREVIOUS NIGHT.
00Z/6TH UPPER AIR DATA REVEALS A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE SITUATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS AND FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. THE
VISIBILITY FORECAST FROM THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ALL
STRONGLY SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AREAS OF FOG BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE...MAINLY INVOF AND EAST OF US HWY 1. LOWS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLD IN THE NORMAL RANGE...AROUND AN INCH
TO 1.25 INCHES...THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB THETA-E STARTS TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PIEDMONT...BUT K INDICES REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW IN THE TEENS...
INDICATIVE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD CAP
PERSISTS AROUND 600MB THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFS
QPF HAS MARGINAL VALUES TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...LIKELY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...THE SREF AND NAM ARE
DRY...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS REMAIN CAPPED...AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE
POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES. WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY
SUNDAY. 850MB MOISTURE OVERALL IS GREATER ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST GREATER COVERAGE OF CU...HOLDING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER
DESPITE A MORE NOTICEABLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE...AVERAGING AT OR JUST
UNDER 10MPH AFTER MIXING. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MOS GUIDANCE...CONSISTENT AMONG THE MAV AND
MET IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY RAPID MOISTENING TAKES PLACE MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 50KT 500MB JET APPROACHES TO OUR NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND A LOW-LEVEL JET WITH WINDS AROUND 35KT AT 850MB AND 30KT
AT 925MB MOVES EAST TOWARD...OR INTO...THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE NAM...WITH THE FORMER
CERTAINLY FARTHER EAST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASE IN 850MB
THETA-E BY 12Z MONDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
AT NIGHT...WITH INCREASING LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND THE
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. IN DEFERENCE TO THE NAM...WILL REFRAIN FROM
CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW...WHILE FORECASTING
HIGH LIKELY POPS TOWARD THE TRIAD AND THE YADKIN RIVER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND INCREASING SIMPLE CHANCE FARTHER EAST PARTICULARLY
TOWARD U.S. 1. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT REMOTE UNTIL POSSIBLY VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS 0-3KM
SHEAR INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KT. 0-3KM HELICITY REMAINS JUST UNDER
100M2/S2 LATE ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN
CURRENTLY FOR LATE NIGHT ROTATING SHOWERS AS THE SHEAR AND MOISTURE
INCREASE...AND AS THERE DEVELOPS BETTER LOW-LEVEL TURNING OF THE
WINDS LATE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER GUIDANCE RUNS REGARDING
THIS. CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS MAINTAIN THEMSELVES...
LEADING TO MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 229 AM SUNDAY...
A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO OUR REGION COURTESY OF THE
STRONG (1030 MB) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO
BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
FORECAST QUESTION WILL BE THE EXTENT OF THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE EAST AND SOUTH TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDINESS/LIGHT RAIN MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED
BY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER SUPPORT TO LINGER ALONG THE SE US
COAST INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. NOT ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ON BOARD
WITH THE LINGERING UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER... THERE APPEARS TO BE
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN AT LEAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY DUE TO THE MOIST ONSHORE NE FLOW ALONG THE COAST EXTENDING
INLAND INTO THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH DRIER
AIR INLAND WHERE THE PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE AMPLE CLEARING TUESDAY AS
THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR DIVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY... A CHANCE OF LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SE ZONES
EARLY TUESDAY... THEN VARIABLY CLOUDY BREEZY AND COOLER. PARTLY
SUNNY ELSEWHERE... BREEZY AND COOLER TUESDAY. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL (HIGHS 70-75)... LOWS 50-55.
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HAS BECOME MUDDLED IN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES WITHIN THE
MODELS RANGING FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE SE COAST... TO EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RETROGRADING MID/UPPER LOW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BACK TOWARD... OR EVEN INLAND... ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TRENDS ARE FOR THE VERY LEAST A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN... WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WETNESS LATE IN
THE WEEK. FOR NOW... WE WILL SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WED-THU... WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN BY FRI-SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THE COOL TEMPERATURE RESUME THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE NE. LOWS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 50S BY SAT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 657 PM SATURDAY...
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z....WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AND
CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED IN THE EAST AT KRWI AND
KFAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 14 TO 15Z
WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST PROVIDING A GOOD 7 TO 10KT SOUTHERLY
BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULTING IN DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
THE AREA...WITH BEST COVERAGE AND CORRESPONDING LOWER RESTRICTIONS
IN THE WEST. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN BY TUESDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH ONLY A SMALL PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS IN A
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL/DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
132 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE INCREASES. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN...BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY
AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TO ADD CONSIDERABLY LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. SPECIAL 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING WITH BASES 200-300 FT AGL ACROSS
MOST OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AS
WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...
DECENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN PROMOTE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FA...WITH DENSE YET AGAIN A POSSIBILITY.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...SE FLOW PROGGED AT THE
LOWER LEVELS VIA MODEL TIME HEIGHT CHARTS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS BY
SUNDAY DAYBREAK. THIS CONTINUES TO WARRANT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
AS RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE ADVANTAGEOUS ALTHOUGH NOT AS
PRONOUNCED LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS. ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF
SC/CU BY DAYBREAK FROM A DEEPER LOW LEVEL SE FLOW...WILL KEEP THE
FOG DEVELOPMENT...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. HOWEVER...FARTHER INLAND
BASICALLY INCLUDING THE BULK OF THE ILM CWA...FOG WILL AGAIN BE THE
PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT AND WILL IDENTIFY ITS OCCURRENCE IN THE
FORECAST AND THE HWO. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS MINS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE MOVING AIRMASS WILL
HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BY SSTS THAT ARE WELL INTO THE 70S.
OVERALL...WILL BE LOOKING AT TONIGHTS MINS AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO NORMS. MODELS IN GENERAL OF LATE...ARE HAVING A SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TIME FORECASTING SFC DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A MILD TO WARM DAY ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ALONG THE SE US COAST WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS
CIRCULATE AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OFFSHORE. DEEP
ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH A COINCIDENT
UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE COULD TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE AN INCREASING TREND IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY...A DRY
MID-LEVEL LAYER WILL SERVE TO HINDER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. IT
IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THAT POP VALUES ARE RAMPED UP INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY...AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE RICH AND TROPICALLY
ENHANCED AIR MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING ONSHORE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A TREND OF WARMING MINIMUM TEMPS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY NORTH WINDS MAY BE GREETING THE DAY AS A
SURFACE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL DEEPLY ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME...STRONG COOLING IS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A MUCH WEAKENED KAREN WILL NOW TRAVEL FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IN FACT REMAINING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ALTOGETHER. WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVES UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. IT MAY HAVE
ENOUGH A PRESENCE TO FLING A LITTLE RAIN-PRODUCING MOISTURE MAINLY
EARLY IN THE DAY AND ALONG THE COAST. THE BALANCE OF TUESDAY SHOULD
BRING A DRYING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO OUR EAST. MODELS NOW HINTING THAT
THIS HIGH WILL KEEP A WIND OUT OF THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD KEEPING DEWPOINTS FAIRLY LOW WHILE TEMPERATURES HANG CLOSE TO
CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING BROUGHT ONSHORE IN
THE WEAK SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC FLOW. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WITH BASES
200-300 FT AGL IS ALREADY DEVELOPING JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST...AND LOCALIZED 1-3 SM VSBY IN FOG/MIST IS DEVELOPING WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE NOT. VERY BAD AVIATION CONDITIONS HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF PERSISTING AT FLO/LBT THROUGH 12Z...AND A MODERATE TO HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPING AT ILM ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL BREAKS TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS HERE. AT CRE/MYR ONSHORE
WINDS HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS VFR SO FAR...ALTHOUGH AS THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL AND WINDS BECOME CALM THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP HERE TOO...WITH
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY AT CRE AND LOW TO MODERATE AT
MYR.
LATEST MODELS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFF THE CAPE FEAR
COAST MAY SURGE INLAND A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH THE
13-16Z WINDOW HIGHLIGHTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DEVELOP REGARDLESS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. I DID EXPAND THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS GIVEN LATEST
OBSERVED TRENDS FROM THE LTX RADAR AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS...
E-W SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGHS CENTER WELL OFFSHORE
FROM NC...WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AND EXTEND INLAND IN THE
VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR. ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO IDENTIFY
AND FORECAST A PREDOMINATE WIND DIRECTION WITH MORE
AUTHORITY...COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL NIGHTS. THE SFC PG WILL
BE SLIGHTLY TIGHTER...AGAIN...COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS/MORNINGS...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT THRUOUT. MAJORITY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF THE 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT EASTERLY
GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 9-11 SECOND PERIODS. THE FOG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 2
NIGHTS/MORNINGS BUT WILL STILL POSE MARINERS PROBLEMS ACROSS
THE FURTHER INLAND WATERWAYS IE. WINYAH BAY...LAKE WACCAMAW...AND
POSSIBLY THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN UPWARD
TREND IN SSE WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SEAS TO 4-5 FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AND S WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT...BRINGING A GOOD DOSE FOR AT LEAST
"EXERCISE CAUTION" CONDITIONS MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF
BUILDING SE WAVES IN INTERVALS RANGING BETWEEN MAINLY 6-9 SEC. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTIES IT SEEMS MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUITE
UNSETTLED. THE UNCERTAINTY MAINLY RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF TS
KAREN AS IT MOVES UP THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOW MUCH
THIS SYSTEM DROPS IN PRESSURE WILL AFFECT HOW TIGHT THE LOCAL
GRADIENT BECOMES...AND OUR RESULTING WINDS/SEAS. GFS GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING STRONGER WHILE OTHER MODELS SUCH AS ECMWF MUCH MORE TAME.
NUDGED THE FORECAST IN A MORE PESSIMISTIC DIRECTION BUT NOT QUITE
AS STRONG AS GFS SINCE NOT MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS HAVE
AS STRONG A SYSTEM AS THE OPERATIONAL RUN. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE COVERING COPIOUS
REAL ESTATE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INCREASED DURATION OF THIS
FETCH TO YIELD AN UPTICK IN SWELL ENERGY AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1007 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THROUGH A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. IN ADDITION
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TONIGHT MOST AREA.
THUS RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS. ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRIAN FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON.
DID LOWER TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT OVER THE SNOWPACK IN THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL. OTHERWISE...BUMPED UP SKY COVER MOST
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS (ABOVE 12K FT) POISED TO MOVE FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AS IT THINS. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER HIGHER
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND
INTERPOLATING THROUGH MID EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRAVERSING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
LEADING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WORKING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
BEEN THE RESULT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD WILLISTON
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY...AND PROGRESS INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
925MB RH FIELD ARE INDICATIVE OF HIGHER VALUES FROM THE ONGOING
SNOWMELT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG FOG
TO DEVELOP AND GET ENTRENCHED IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SKY GRIDS IN ANTICIPATION OF
THIS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT THE AREAL EXTENT AND DEPTH OF THE RH
FIELD WILL BE AS WHAT THE NAM ADVERTISES...SINCE THE NAM HAS BEEN
OVER-FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELD LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND MAINTAINED THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY CLOUDS REMAINING ONCE THE
COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH WILL DECREASE ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL ROUGHLY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER OVER MONDAYS HIGHS.
THE FLOOD ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT BOWMAN
COUNTY WHERE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. PLEASE SEE THE
UPDATED HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
ANOTHER LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN IN PARTS OF THE WEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE 07/12Z EC CONTINUES
TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES...BUT IS NOT AN OUTLIER IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF THINGS.
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DAYTIME THURSDAY AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES AND SURFACE FEATURES TAKE SHAPE (A
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS ROUGHLY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS COLORADO). BY THURSDAY NIGHT A CLOSED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
QUICKLY OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A LOW LEVEL JET ESTABLISHED
EAST OF THE LOW. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW HAS
DEVELOPED/MOVED NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS
INDICATE ENOUGH CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORM MENTION OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE GFS AND EC ARE PROJECTING PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN PARTS
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD BET WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE THAT THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL-RAIN OR NEARLY ALL-RAIN
EVENT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS IN
THAT WE WON`T BE DEALING WITH HEAVY SNOW. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT WITH
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WITH THIS PAST WEEKEND`S SYSTEM...OVERLAND
AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE A GREAT CONCERN.
BY SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MANITOBA/ONTARIO WITH LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH THE
EXISTENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING THE LARGE
SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH...AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SNOWPACK AND ADVECTING NORTH AND EAST INTO
KBIS AND POSSIBLY KDIK AND KMOT. NAM/SREF ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE 00 UTC NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON THE 925MB
RH ADVECTING INTO BISMARCK. LATEST 21Z HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
LOWER CEILING DEVELOPING OVER THE SNOWPACK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF VCFG AND A SCATTERED IFR LAYER AT KBIS...HINTING AT
POSSIBLE LOW CEILINGS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z. PROBABILITY OF THIS
ADVECTING INTO KDIK AND KMOT IS EVEN LESS SO NO MENTION HERE. ONLY
HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT KISN AND KJMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MELTING SNOW HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN SIOUX...SOUTHEASTERN HETTINGER...WESTERN GRANT AND
ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM MDT WEDNESDAY.
SIX TO TWELVE INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THIS PAST
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS AROUND 20 INCHES. THIS HEAVY...WET
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AT NIGHT...AND RISE TO THE 50S AND 60S DURING THE
DAYTIME.
SOILS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY MOIST...AND
CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF COUNTY AND
TOWNSHIP ROADS IN LOW LYING AREAS. STREET FLOODING IN TOWNS MAY ALSO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AS STORM DRAINS MAY BE BLOCKED BY STORM DEBRIS.
WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED ON CREEKS AND STREAMS FLOWING INTO
THE CANNONBALL RIVER EARLY THIS WEEK AND NOTICEABLE RISES ON THE
CANNONBALL ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS (ABOVE 12K FT) POISED TO MOVE FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AS IT THINS. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER HIGHER
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND
INTERPOLATING THROUGH MID EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRAVERSING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
LEADING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WORKING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
BEEN THE RESULT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD WILLISTON
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY...AND PROGRESS INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
925MB RH FIELD ARE INDICATIVE OF HIGHER VALUES FROM THE ONGOING
SNOWMELT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG FOG
TO DEVELOP AND GET ENTRENCHED IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SKY GRIDS IN ANTICIPATION OF
THIS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT THE AREAL EXTENT AND DEPTH OF THE RH
FIELD WILL BE AS WHAT THE NAM ADVERTISES...SINCE THE NAM HAS BEEN
OVER-FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELD LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND MAINTAINED THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY CLOUDS REMAINING ONCE THE
COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH WILL DECREASE ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL ROUGHLY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER OVER MONDAYS HIGHS.
THE FLOOD ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT BOWMAN
COUNTY WHERE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. PLEASE SEE THE
UPDATED HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
ANOTHER LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN IN PARTS OF THE WEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE 07/12Z EC CONTINUES
TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES...BUT IS NOT AN OUTLIER IN THE LARGER SCHEME OF THINGS.
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DAYTIME THURSDAY AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES AND SURFACE FEATURES TAKE SHAPE (A
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS ROUGHLY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS COLORADO). BY THURSDAY NIGHT A CLOSED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
QUICKLY OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A LOW LEVEL JET ESTABLISHED
EAST OF THE LOW. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW HAS
DEVELOPED/MOVED NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS
INDICATE ENOUGH CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORM MENTION OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE GFS AND EC ARE PROJECTING PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN PARTS
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD BET WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE THAT THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL-RAIN OR NEARLY ALL-RAIN
EVENT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS IN
THAT WE WON`T BE DEALING WITH HEAVY SNOW. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT WITH
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WITH THIS PAST WEEKEND`S SYSTEM...OVERLAND
AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE A GREAT CONCERN.
BY SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MANITOBA/ONTARIO WITH LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH THE
EXISTENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING THE LARGE
SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH...AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SNOWPACK AND ADVECTING NORTH AND EAST INTO
KBIS AND POSSIBLY KDIK AND KMOT. NAM/SREF ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SCENARIO. LATEST 21Z HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON THE LOWER CEILING
DEVELOPING OVER THE SNOWPACK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VCFG
AND A SCATTERED IFR LAYER AT KBIS...HINTING AT POSSIBLE LOW
CEILINGS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z. PROBABILITY OF THIS ADVECTING INTO
KDIK AND KMOT IS EVEN LESS SO NO MENTION HERE. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT KISN AND KJMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MELTING SNOW HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN SIOUX...SOUTHEASTERN HETTINGER...WESTERN GRANT AND
ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM MDT WEDNESDAY.
SIX TO TWELVE INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THIS PAST
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS AROUND 20 INCHES. THIS HEAVY...WET
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AT NIGHT...AND RISE TO THE 50S AND 60S DURING THE
DAYTIME.
SOILS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY MOIST...AND
CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF COUNTY AND
TOWNSHIP ROADS IN LOW LYING AREAS. STREET FLOODING IN TOWNS MAY ALSO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AS STORM DRAINS MAY BE BLOCKED BY STORM DEBRIS.
WITHIN BANK RISES ARE EXPECTED ON CREEKS AND STREAMS FLOWING INTO
THE CANNONBALL RIVER EARLY THIS WEEK AND NOTICEABLE RISES ON THE
CANNONBALL ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR ADDITION OF AVIATION
DISCUSSION. TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ON TRACK. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH CLOUD INCREASE NEEDED FOR BAND ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SASK AND WEST CNTRL MB AS IT APPEARS TO BE DRYING UP
QUITE A BIT WHILE ADVECTING EAST. WILL KEEP SKY COVER IN THE 40 TO
50 PER CENT RANGE FOR NORTHERN TIER AND REDUCE SKY COVER
ELSEWHERE...WITH EXCEPTION OF SLOWLY DISSIPATING AREA ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSES ON SKY AND TEMPS AS WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CWA IS NOW CLEAR WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS STILL OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. ONLY SEEING A FEW REPORTS OF
RAIN...LATEST AT DETROIT LAKES. 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP OVERDOING
PRECIP FOR THE AM...STILL PRODUCING ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH.
EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP TO BE MORE IN THE RANGE OF A COUPLE
OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WILL LOWER POPS SOME AND KEEP MENTION OF
DRIZZLE...BUT THINK ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY NOON TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
RADAR STILL INDICATING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FROM
FERTILE MN TO FAR TO GWINNER ND. BAND WAS SHIFTING SOUTH AT 5 KNOTS.
EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT SOUTH. WILL LET FREEZE
WARNING/FROST ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
THE NAM WAS THE FAST MODEL WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM SLOWER AND THE GFS
THE SLOWEST MODEL RUN. WILL PREFER THE GFS AND ECMWF. UPPER AIR
PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUE MORNING.
RADAR INDICATED PRECIPITATION WAS DECREASING IN AREA AND INTENSITY
AND WAS IN A NARROW BAND FROM NEAR BDE TO FORMAN ND. INDIVIDUAL
CELLS WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 45 KNOTS WHILE THE BAND WAS
MOVING WEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MODELS REDUCE QPF TO AROUND A HUNDRED OF
AN INCH...ESSENTIALLY ZERO...AFTER 12Z SUN. ALSO MODELS
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE MID LEVEL RH FIELD (700-500 HPA) AFTER
12Z. WILL REDUCE POPS FOR TODAY. WILL ADD DRIZZLE FOR SOUTHEAST
ZONES TODAY. LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TODAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND LOW TEMP TUE MORNING. WENT A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER FOR TONIGHT AND TUE AFTERNOON. WENT COOLER
NORTHEAST ZONES FOR MON HIGH AND A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER FOR WESTERN
ZONES WED MORN. OTHERWISE RISING TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
A QUIET SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY MAY BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CANADA...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH DRY AIR
STILL IN PLACE. INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER
LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A
TAD SLOWER OVERALL. SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS INDICATE
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION COMPARED WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...BUT WITH
THE STRENGTH OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGING...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER
NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
IFR CIGS TO PERSIST CROSS FAR EASTERN FA (BJI TAF) FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL BE VFR WITH NO
CIGS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOCUSES ON SKY AND TEMPS AS WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CWA IS NOW CLEAR WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS STILL OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. ONLY SEEING A FEW REPORTS OF
RAIN...LATEST AT DETROIT LAKES. 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP OVERDOING
PRECIP FOR THE AM...STILL PRODUCING ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH.
EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP TO BE MORE IN THE RANGE OF A COUPLE
OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WILL LOWER POPS SOME AND KEEP MENTION OF
DRIZZLE...BUT THINK ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY NOON TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
RADAR STILL INDICATING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FROM
FERTILE MN TO FAR TO GWINNER ND. BAND WAS SHIFTING SOUTH AT 5 KNOTS.
EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT SOUTH. WILL LET FREEZE
WARNING/FROST ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
THE NAM WAS THE FAST MODEL WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM SLOWER AND THE GFS
THE SLOWEST MODEL RUN. WILL PREFER THE GFS AND ECMWF. UPPER AIR
PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUE MORNING.
RADAR INDICATED PRECIPITATION WAS DECREASING IN AREA AND INTENSITY
AND WAS IN A NARROW BAND FROM NEAR BDE TO FORMAN ND. INDIVIDUAL
CELLS WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 45 KNOTS WHILE THE BAND WAS
MOVING WEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MODELS REDUCE QPF TO AROUND A HUNDRED OF
AN INCH...ESSENTIALLY ZERO...AFTER 12Z SUN. ALSO MODELS
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THE MID LEVEL RH FIELD (700-500 HPA) AFTER
12Z. WILL REDUCE POPS FOR TODAY. WILL ADD DRIZZLE FOR SOUTHEAST
ZONES TODAY. LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TODAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND LOW TEMP TUE MORNING. WENT A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER FOR TONIGHT AND TUE AFTERNOON. WENT COOLER
NORTHEAST ZONES FOR MON HIGH AND A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER FOR WESTERN
ZONES WED MORN. OTHERWISE RISING TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
A QUIET SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY MAY BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CANADA...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH DRY AIR
STILL IN PLACE. INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER
LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A
TAD SLOWER OVERALL. SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY...WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS INDICATE
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION COMPARED WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...BUT WITH
THE STRENGTH OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGING...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER
NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BDE TO
FAR TO GWINNER ND. FOG AND DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN. FOG LOOP INDICATED CLEARING LINE WEST
OF A LINE FROM ROX TO ELLENDALE ND AND WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT 15 KNOTS. CLEARING LINE SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
THE BAND OF RAIN IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE AND STARTING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE 02Z HRRR INDICATES THAT THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY SCATTERED PRECIP REMAINING BY 09Z. TRENDED THE
POPS TOWARD THIS THINKING.
THE FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE AS CLEARING ALONG WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND UPPER 20F DEWPOINTS WILL BE OVER THE HEADLINED
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DO NOT THINK THAT THE HEADLINES WILL
NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS LATEST RAP/HRRR SHOW THE CLEARING LINE
GENERALLY WHERE THE HEADLINES ARE LOCATED (AND CLEAR SKY/NARROW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE KEY FOR LOWER MIN TEMPS).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONTINUED RAIN POTENTIAL/COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS. MODELS OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN
FEATURES. CONCERNING QPF WILL FOLLOW GEM/ECMWF/NAM BLEND AS GFS
LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE FIRST 12 HOURS.
STACKED LOW TO FINALLY START PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. PRIOR TO
MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT RAIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
MINNESOTA ARCING WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS FA TONIGHT. THIS
STARTING TO OCCUR WITH RAIN EXPANDING ACROSS EAST HALF OF MN IN
ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. MOST
SIGNIFICANT BAND CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN FA IN MOIST
AXIS WITH EVEN A FEW LTG STRIKES ACROSS NW MN. THIS BAND THEN TO
PIVOT SE WITH TIME AS UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. MADE BEST ATTEMPT
WITH POPS HOWEVER EVENING SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADJUST AS MAIN
BAND DEVELOPS. AS LOW EXITS LATER THIS EVENING CLEARING SHOULD
START WORKING INTO NW FA. WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AREAS WHICH CLEAR OUT LONG ENOUGH
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH FOR FREEZE CONDITIONS. ISSUED
FREEZE WARNING FOR FAR NW BUFFERED BY FROST ADVISORY. EXTENT OF
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING.
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT COOLING ELSEWHERE.
PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EAST AND WEAKEN. SE 1/3RD OF FA WILL SEE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL -RA MAINLY DURING THE AM. COLUMN NOT VERY COLD
SO AREAS WHICH SEE SOME SOLAR SHOULD SEE A MODEST TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY.
BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL RH NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
WEATHER SETTLES DOWN INTO FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. COLUMN WARMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WILL SEE GRADUALLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE AVERAGE.
WED-THU PERIOD REMAINS QUIET AS 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
GREAT LAKES-OHIO VALLEY WITH LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS LOOK TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER. NEXT 500 MB LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
FRI-SAT PERIOD. 12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH GFS FARTHER SOUTH AND A BIT WEAKER WHILE EURO STRONGER
AND FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EITHER WAY WILL BRING CHC OF RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FRI AFTN INTO SATURDAY. EURO WOULD HAVE
HIGHER QPF THAN GFS. KEPT IDEA OF ISOLD THUNDER AS WELL FRI
AFTN-FRI NIGHT...ESP IF EURO TRACK IS RIGHT AS IT BRINGS UP MORE
UNSTABLE AIR VS THE FARTHER SOUTH GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. CLEARING SKY ACROSS KDVL WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD...IMPROVING THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OTHER TAF
SITES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-
015-024.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026-
054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...WITH
ONE EXCEPTION. THE LATEST RUC DATA MOISTURE PROFILE SHOWS SOME
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE DOWN IN THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY NEAR
KFSM...AND INDEED THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS BASED ON LATEST
OB FROM SALLISAW AND FOG ENHANCED SAT IMAGE SHOWING LOW
CLOUDS/FOG IN THE VCNTY. SINCE THIS IS SO CLOSE BY...I HAVE
TEMPO`D IN LIFR CONDITIONS TOWARD 12Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BCM
NWRLY AT 10 TO 20 KTS AFT 15Z SUNDAY MORNING.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN APPEARS TO FINALLY BE PUSHING OUT OF FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AT THIS TIME WITH SKIES CLEARING IN FAIRLY RAPID
FASHION AS WELL. COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR EXPECTED
WITH SOME SPOTS ALREADY INTO MID 40S AS OF 930 PM. LIGHT SW WIND
KEEPING TEMP AT KTUL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SURROUNDING
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER SHOULD SEE GRADUAL VEERING TO MORE NW
COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY NEUTRALIZE URBAN EFFECT. BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS WILL BE ABLE TO GO AHEAD AND REMOVE PRECIP FROM
TONIGHT`S FORECAST BY 10 PM...AND WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPS AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ALL SITES TRENDING TO VFR BY THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND AT KFSM COULD LEAD TO SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG AROUND 12Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NWRLY AT 10
TO 20 KTS AFT 15Z SUNDAY MORNING.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...
BAND OF ONGOING CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ALONG THE 850MB FRONT...AND
GIVEN THE LATEST RUC PROJECTIONS...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS
FAR WESTERN AR INTO EXTREME SE OK BY 00Z AND PUSHING EASTWARD. ANY
EVENING PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THIS ZONE BEFORE PUSHING
FURTHER EASTWARD AND CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE AND ALLOW FOR A COOL SUNDAY MORNING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY. A SEVERAL DAY WARMING TREND
COMMENCES MONDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY
MID WEEK. THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND
WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. WILL INTRODUCE
LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 46 70 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 46 71 46 75 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 43 72 43 77 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 40 69 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 41 65 39 70 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 43 63 44 69 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 42 70 42 75 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 42 66 42 72 / 0 10 0 0
F10 43 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 47 76 44 79 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1247 AM MDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT OCT 5 2013
THE STORM CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN SLOWLY FOR THE BLACK
HILLS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA IS MAKING A LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE IS DECREASING SNOWFALL AND
WIND AS THE WEAKENING BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WIND SHFTS
EASTWARD. THE 18Z HRRR SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AND REFORMING OVER MINNESOTA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BOTH THE PRECIPITATION
RATE AND DURATION OF STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE RESULTING
IN A LESS POTENT EVENT IN THOSE PARTS.
A MUCH WELCOME DAY OF BLUE SKIES AND SUNSHINE ARE IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY AS A TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. GUIDANCE WARMING SEEMS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE CONSIDERING
THE EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK WE`VE ACQUIRED SO TEMPS WERE TRIMMED DOWN A
BIT. THIS IS BETTER THAN A RAPID MELTOFF ANYWAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON HOW THE STREAMS RESPOND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
MILD SUNNY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SAT OCT 5 2013
PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE RECORD-BREAKING
BLIZZARD... MOVING QUICKLY FROM NEAR 110W ON MON TO JUST E OF 100W
ON TUE AND TO 85W ON WED. AS IT DOES SO...A NEW LONG WAVE TROF IS
CARVED OUT IN THE WEST. GFS CONTINUES TREND OF LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN
SPLITTING OFF A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND MOVING IT ACROSS WRN CAN
WHILE THE STRONGER PORTION OF THE WAVE DIGS S WARD INTO CA. BY 12Z
WED A CLOSED LOW IS SHOWN OVER NRN CA. THE DIGGING PROCESS IS
COMPLETED BY THU AT 12Z AND THE LOW IS FCST TO MOVE OUT TO THE
NE...PERHAPS TO SE SD BY 12Z SAT. THIS RUN OF GFS IS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER S AND E THAN YESTERDAY`S. WHILE THE TRACK IS REMINISCENT OF
OUR PRESENT STORM...1000 TO 500MB THICKNESSES ARE PRESENTLY FCST TO
BE WELL ABOVE SNOW RELATED VALUES AND THE UPPER LOW IS FAR LESS
INTENSE. BUT IT IS EARLY IN THE GAME.
ACCEPTED THE EXTENDED INIT TEMPS...THOUGH THEY ARE MUCH BELOW GFS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR WED AND THU. THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
WET GROUND FROM THE HEAVY SNOW AND THAT THE STORM-FOLLOWING RIDGE IS
FCST TO MOVE E WARD SO QUICKLY THAT UPPER LEVEL COOLING WILL ALREADY
BE UNDERWAY AS THE TROF IN THE W INTENSIFIES AND APPROACHES THE AREA.
CLOUDS...POPS...AND PRECIP BROUGHT IN THU NIGHT INTO SAT IN LINE
WITH APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MDT SUN OCT 6 2013
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESURE RIDGE....A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE SINCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM KRAP DUE TO
COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...BARBER
AVIATION...CARPENTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
511 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO INTRODUCE A
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS GROUPING ALL COUNTIES
TO DEAL WITH CURRENT AND EXPECTED SHORT TERM PROGRESSION OF
SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS W TO E ACROSS MID STATE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HRS. ALSO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 213 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS MADE IT EAST OF NASHVILLE, WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. HRRR DOING A REASONABLE JOB WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY, AND
THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL SHOWS NUMEROUS CELLS LASTING WELL PAST 00Z.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS ARE OBVIOUSLY
RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, EVEN AS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
DEVELOPING IN THE COLD POOL. EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z, WITH SHOWERS EXITING THE PLATEAU BY 12Z.
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN AND DRY OUT
THE ATMOSPHERE AND KEEP A COOLER AIR MASS LOCKED IN PLACE OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
213 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS MADE IT EAST OF NASHVILLE, WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. HRRR DOING A REASONABLE JOB WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY, AND
THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL SHOWS NUMEROUS CELLS LASTING WELL PAST 00Z.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS ARE OBVIOUSLY
RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, EVEN AS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
DEVELOPING IN THE COLD POOL. EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z, WITH SHOWERS EXITING THE PLATEAU BY 12Z.
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN AND DRY OUT
THE ATMOSPHERE AND KEEP A COOLER AIR MASS LOCKED IN PLACE OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 46 67 47 72 / 30 0 0 05
CLARKSVILLE 43 66 45 71 / 10 0 05 05
CROSSVILLE 45 63 42 68 / 80 0 05 05
COLUMBIA 46 69 47 73 / 30 0 0 05
LAWRENCEBURG 45 69 45 73 / 30 0 0 05
WAVERLY 44 67 45 72 / 10 0 05 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
641 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TX PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AS MR. RODGERS WOULD
SAY...IT IS A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD...AND IT WILL
REMAIN BEAUTIFUL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND SURFACE RIDGE PARKS ITSELF OVER SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WITH THE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE VEERING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS CONTINUE UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES
AND LOW DEW POINT AIR. MODEL TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT BUT WILL TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
TUESDAY WITH FORECAST NUMBERS NOT STRAYING TO FAR GUIDANCE.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ALBEIT WEAK.
SOMEWHAT MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWER 3000
FEET...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. UNSURE IF MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION BUT VISIBILITIES COULD
LOWER BELOW 1 MILE IN THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE KHBV KBKS
AREAS. OVERNIGHT NIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER BUT STILL BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES WITH THE WEAK RETURN FLOW NOT ADDING MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION
AT THIS TIME. ENJOY IT NOW A/C MAY HAVE TO CRANKED UP SOON.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL DEPEND AND LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ENHANCING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS
REGION. EXPECT THIS BREEZE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL LIFT N/NW AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL SURGE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE 1000 TO 500 MB
RH VALUES SHOWS AN INCREASE BETWEEN 60 TO 70 PERCENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTERACTS WITH RIDGE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DECIDED TO INCREASE
POP FORECAST TO 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUN. THE COASTAL COUNTIES
ARE MORE FAVORABLE TO RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL FROM THIS MOISTURE
SURGE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO THE MID 90S THROUGH THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
BY NEXT WEEK...GULF MOISTURE WILL RAP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS PUSHING ALL THE MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA POSSIBLY BY MID WEEK.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EXCELLENT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT TO VEER EAST TUESDAY
THEN SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT
LOWERING TO 2 FEET OR LESS TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
BUILD SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ENHANCING THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE GULF WATERS AS THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE MARINE
ZONES. NO SCA OR SCEC EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
61/55/MARTINEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
953 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN AREA CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE COAST AT MID
MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH KCLL
HAVING ALREADY EXPERIENCED RAIN. SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE LINE APPEAR TO BE FALLING APART WHILE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CELLS IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE 850MB FRONT. RAP HAS BY FAR DONE THE BEST WITH THIS
SHOWING GOOD LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. THE RAP DOES
WEAKEN THE STRENGTH OF LIFT THOUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. IN
GENERAL WOULD AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THAT SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
INSTABILITY BEING LIMITED. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHOWERS IS AN
OVC DECK AROUND 5000 FT. LOOKS LIKE SITES SHOULD STAY VFR WITH
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AT KGLS BY NOON. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL
THEN START TO COMMENCE AFTER THE RAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013/
UPDATE...
STORMS TO THE WEST HAVE CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST AS ENTRANCE REGION
ADVANCES EAST INTO THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY IN THE WEST AND CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL. STILL EXPECT
THAT THESE WILL WEAKEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY NOON ONLY STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE SW AREAS AND IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BUT ENTRANCE REGION OF SPEED
MAX LIFTING OUT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY
AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF RA/SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE 825-850MB FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST BUT INSTABILITY
SHOULD WANE THIS MORNING SO EXPECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE
A DECENT CHANCE AT RAINFALL BEFORE 7 AM WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES THEN TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
NOON THEN CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
DEAL COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING 78-80 DEGREES TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS AFTERNOON MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH STRONGER WINDS SHOULD COME THROUGH THIS MORNING AND MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN CWA. IF NOT FOR THE MOIST FUELS AND RAINFALL THIS
MORNING WOULD BE NEAR RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BY MID AFTERNOON HUMIDITY 17-22 PERCENT SHOULD BE
COMMON THERE. RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THE REGION WILL SEE A FEW COOL
EARLY OCTOBER NIGHTS AND PLEASANT AFTERNOONS. GREAT WEATHER FOR
PATIO PARTIES AND PICNICS AND FOOTBALL. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER TEXAS KEEP SE TX DRY THEN THE NEXT
TROUGH IN THE DEVELOPING PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SINKS DOWN OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND TX RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY THURSDAY THIS WILL OPEN
THE GULF BACK UP WITH A MODIFYING AIRMASS OVER THE GULF RETURNING.
TEMPS SHOULD FOLLOW A WARMING TREND WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK
IN ON SATURDAY AS TROUGH LIFTS OUT. FAVORING THE ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED AND MAY HAVE A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL JET TO DEAL WITH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A FRONT SETTLING INTO TEXAS AND POTENTIALLY STALLING.
RECORD HIGH OF 93 TIED AT HOBBY YESTERDAY.
45
MARINE...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING
LEAVING STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS
ALREADY BEEN REACHED SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
NOON TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE SLOWLY. BY
SUNDAY EVENING WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE STILL
ABOVE SCEC CRITERIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW SCEC CRITERIA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY WILL DRIFT EASTWARDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 79 52 84 55 87 / 10 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 52 84 55 86 / 70 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 63 82 67 82 / 40 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
647 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH KCLL
HAVING ALREADY EXPERIENCED RAIN. SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE LINE APPEAR TO BE FALLING APART WHILE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CELLS IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE 850MB FRONT. RAP HAS BY FAR DONE THE BEST WITH THIS
SHOWING GOOD LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. THE RAP DOES
WEAKEN THE STRENGTH OF LIFT THOUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. IN
GENERAL WOULD AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THAT SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
INSTABILITY BEING LIMITED. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHOWERS IS AN
OVC DECK AROUND 5000 FT. LOOKS LIKE SITES SHOULD STAY VFR WITH
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AT KGLS BY NOON. CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL
THEN START TO COMMENCE AFTER THE RAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013/
UPDATE...
STORMS TO THE WEST HAVE CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST AS ENTRANCE REGION
ADVANCES EAST INTO THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY IN THE WEST AND CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL. STILL EXPECT
THAT THESE WILL WEAKEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY NOON ONLY STORMS
SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE SW AREAS AND IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE BUT ENTRANCE REGION OF SPEED
MAX LIFTING OUT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY
AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF RA/SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE 825-850MB FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST BUT INSTABILITY
SHOULD WANE THIS MORNING SO EXPECT THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE
A DECENT CHANCE AT RAINFALL BEFORE 7 AM WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES THEN TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
NOON THEN CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
DEAL COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING 78-80 DEGREES TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS AFTERNOON MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH STRONGER WINDS SHOULD COME THROUGH THIS MORNING AND MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN CWA. IF NOT FOR THE MOIST FUELS AND RAINFALL THIS
MORNING WOULD BE NEAR RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BY MID AFTERNOON HUMIDITY 17-22 PERCENT SHOULD BE
COMMON THERE. RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THE REGION WILL SEE A FEW COOL
EARLY OCTOBER NIGHTS AND PLEASANT AFTERNOONS. GREAT WEATHER FOR
PATIO PARTIES AND PICNICS AND FOOTBALL. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER TEXAS KEEP SETX DRY THEN THE NEXT TROUGH
IN THE DEVELOPING PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SINKS DOWN OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. AND TX RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY THURSDAY THIS WILL OPEN THE GULF
BACK UP WITH A MODIFYING AIRMASS OVER THE GULF RETURNING. TEMPS
SHOULD FOLLOW A WARMING TREND WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK IN ON
SATURDAY AS TROUGH LIFTS OUT. FAVORING THE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED
AND MAY HAVE A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL JET TO DEAL WITH NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A FRONT SETTLING INTO TEXAS AND POTENTIALLY STALLING.
RECORD HIGH OF 93 TIED AT HOBBY YESTERDAY.
45
MARINE...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING
LEAVING STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS
ALREADY BEEN REACHED SO WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
NOON TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE SLOWLY. BY
SUNDAY EVENING WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE STILL
ABOVE SCEC CRITERIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW SCEC CRITERIA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY WILL DRIFT EASTWARDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 79 52 84 55 87 / 60 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 52 84 55 86 / 40 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 63 82 67 82 / 30 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1133 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THESE STORMS WILL NOT
HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TERMINALS. HOWEVER A SW TO NE BAND OF ELEVATED
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM NEAR KDRT TO KLZZ. THE BAND IS
MOVING EAST WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. WE WILL
USE THE LATEST RUC13 TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR IN
AND AROUND THE SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE I-35
TERMINALS BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE NORTHERLY
AT 10 TO 20 KTS. SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS ON
SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT
10 TO 15 KTS...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013/
UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS
ARE NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IN FAVORABLE
JET QUADRANT. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASES TOWARD MIDNIGHT
AS UPWARD FORCING STRENGTHENS AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASES TOWARD
MORNING AS UPWARD FORCING WEAKENS. HAVE GONE WITH SAME POPS ALL OF
TONIGHT. DUE TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY HAVE REDUCED THUNDERSTORMS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE. UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE A LITTLE SLOWER AND HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FOR A LITTLE PAST SUNRISE ON SUNDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO RE-ESTABLISHED TRENDS TO SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
AT 23Z THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM K11R TO KBAZ TO KUVA TO KFTN.
THE FRONT WAS MOVING SE AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING WHEN THE COLD FRONT
COLLIDES WITH THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF. THE ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE I-35 TERMINALS...SO
HAVE USED THE 22Z RAP13 MODEL FOR TIMING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z IN AND
AROUND THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 10
TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THRU THE NRN CWA WITH A FINE LINE
EVIDENT ON RADAR. POST FRONTAL OVERRUNNING CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
WELL TO THE NW ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD THRU THE CWA THIS
EVENING...WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER WEST TEXAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION PREVAILING OVERNIGHT...AND
THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD LIMIT AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS TO ONE
QUARTER INCH OR LESS OVER THE SWRN CWA TO ONE TENTH INCH OVER EAST
AND NE. CONVECTION WILL END FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SEWD ACROSS THE CWA. SUNNY BREEZY AND COOLER
SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS APPROACHING 40
DEGREES IN THE HILL COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK...UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WORK WEEK AS SLY WINDS RESUME
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ALOFT AS A LOW DIGS
SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CHANCES FOR
RAIN. THE DRY LINE COULD GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS IN WEST TX LATE
IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW KICKS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH THE FAR
WESTERN CWA THU THRU SATURDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE POPS AS SILENT 10S
FOR NOW. WITH THE LONG RANGE MODELS LIFTING THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THE CHANCES FOR A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
WEEK/SATURDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES CROSS-SECTIONS
SHOW A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 56 82 52 85 55 / 40 - 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 81 47 86 51 / 40 - 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 81 48 87 53 / 40 - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 79 47 84 53 / 40 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 81 52 86 55 / 20 - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 55 81 48 85 53 / 40 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 83 47 88 53 / 50 - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 79 48 86 53 / 40 - 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 83 51 85 52 / 20 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 56 82 52 87 56 / 50 - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 57 83 51 87 55 / 50 - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...13
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
931 AM PDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. LOOK FOR A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS LOCALIZED LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY FOR
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL NOT
IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE TREND IN THE MODELS WAS TOWARD
A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST UNTIL SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND THE CASCADES
UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MON AND
THEN LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL GIVE A SUNNY
DAY TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SPLITTING AND WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRING CLOUDS...BUT RATHER A LOW CHANCE
OF RAIN. MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A DRY PERIOD IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS LOW. NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND THU. ALBRECHT
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT NEAR 130W THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. SW FLOW ALOFT. AIR MASS DRY AND STABLE
EXCEPT PATCHES OF MORNING FOG. THERE IS SOME MARINE STRATUS OFFSHORE
AND THE HRRR MODEL HAS THAT MOVING ON TO THE OREGON BEACHES MIDDAY
AND SPREADING NORTH INTO GRAYS HARBOR AROUND 21Z. THOSE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE UP AND DOWN THE WA COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES.
KSEA...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHERLIES WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT NEARS WESTERN WA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS SOUTHERLY WINDS
TURNING TO WESTERLY IN THE STRAIT MONDAY AND PEAKING IN THE CENTRAL
STRAIT MONDAY EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE TUESDAY WITH THE
FLOW BECOMING LIGHT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE
CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
FORECAST A BIT MORE QUIET THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH LOW IMPACT
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH THE LONGWAVE
LOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMING
IN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOCATES THE CENTER OF THE 300-500MB CIRCULATION
EAST OF KSUX IOWA WITH A SLOW DRIFT EAST. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
INDICATING WRAP AROUND MOIST PLUME CONTINUING FROM KINL-KFAR-KABR-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH RAINFALL OF .03 TO .08 PER HOUR IN THE BAND. CLOUDS
ARE LOW TOO...SO A WELL SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. PER RAP ANALYSIS...GOOD
CORRELATION WITH THE 305-308 THETA-E SURFACE AND FLOW UP THE
SURFACE WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME / TROWAL. ANOTHER DEFORMATION BAND
CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER ITSELF IS FOUND IN NW IA WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR THERE. THESE ARE PLAYERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST. AT 3 AM...DRY SLOT AND CLEAR SKIES RUNNING THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LOWER CLOUD NOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
MISS RIVER IN NERN IA AND SERN MN. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE AROUND
WITH LIGHT WIND IN THE CLEAR SECTOR THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE NEAR ZERO.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
TRACK IT THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES OR A BIT NORTH. THIS PLACES THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP BY LATER AFTERNOON /7.5-8.5 C
PER KM/ AS THIS OCCURS AND WITH CIRCULATION CENTER SO
CLOSE...THINKING SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO COMBINES WITH LIFT UP THE THETA-E SURFACES IN
THAT AREA AND A SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WORKING NORTH
AROUND THE LOW. THIS SCT SHOWERS AREA WILL EXTEND BACK TOWARD THE
WEST WHERE MAIN MOIST PLUME WILL BE INCOMING.
TONIGHT...GOOD CONSENSUS ON DRAGGING THE WRAP AROUND RAIN BAND
THROUGH THE AREA. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MODELS ARE SATURATED...SOME
VERY SATURATED FROM 0-3KM. FORCING REMAINS THAT TROWAL AIR STREAM
WITH THETA-E SURFACE LIFT RISING AS THE PARCEL MOVE SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH WEAKER FORCING THAN CURRENTLY OUT WEST...THE 06.00Z GFS HAS 7
UB/S OF LIFT FROM 0-3KM AT KLSE AT 06Z AND THE LAYER IS TOTALLY
SATURATED. THUS...HAVE PUT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THINKING THAT OUR RAIN CHANCES MAY BE TOO
LOW. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO BUMP THE RAIN CHANCES.
THE LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE
CLOUDS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST
CYCLE - VERY NEAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD OVERALL WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
MIDWEST AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500MB PATTERN THROUGH
ABOUT THURSDAY WHICH DEFINES THE DIGGING OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OUT WEST. THE ENSEMBLES AND THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
05.12Z/06.00Z AND 06.00Z GEM/GFS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON HOW THAT
TROUGH ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND DAKOTAS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A VERY MILD WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AS THE TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST.
OVERALL...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND PREFER THE SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE ECMWF FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS FOR SLOWER TIMING. BOTTOM
LINE IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEEK AFTER A WARM SUNNY WEEK.
NOT SURE THERE IS EVEN A FROST OR VALLEY FOG DAY IN THERE WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES PREDICTED BECAUSE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN SO
RAPIDLY. ONLY FROST TIME FRAME IS POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN IF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOESNT KICK IN FAST
ENOUGH. A CALM MONDAY EVENING AND RAPID COOL DOWN WOULD SEEM TO
SUGGEST LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S....WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS KICKING
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE CEILINGS AS A BAND
OF STRATUS WITH EMBEDDED RAIN SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL /
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE TAF SITES. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN A QUICK DROP FROM VFR TO LOW-END MVFR AS A SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO LIFR AT
KRST...AND POSSIBLY IFR AT KLSE...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DURING
WHAT SHOULD BE THE PEAK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODEL GUIDANCE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD SUBSIDE/WEAKEN OR MOVE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE LOW STRATUS
LINGERING A FEW HOURS MORE. AT THIS TIME...BACK EDGE OF CLOUD DECK
SHOULD MAKE IT TO KRST BY 10-12Z AND KLSE A FEW HOURS LATER. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
FORECAST A BIT MORE QUIET THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH LOW IMPACT
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH THE LONGWAVE
LOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMING
IN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOCATES THE CENTER OF THE 300-500MB CIRCULATION
EAST OF KSUX IOWA WITH A SLOW DRIFT EAST. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
INDICATING WRAP AROUND MOIST PLUME CONTINUING FROM KINL-KFAR-KABR-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH RAINFALL OF .03 TO .08 PER HOUR IN THE BAND. CLOUDS
ARE LOW TOO...SO A WELL SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. PER RAP ANALYSIS...GOOD
CORRELATION WITH THE 305-308 THETA-E SURFACE AND FLOW UP THE
SURFACE WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME / TROWAL. ANOTHER DEFORMATION BAND
CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER ITSELF IS FOUND IN NW IA WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR THERE. THESE ARE PLAYERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST. AT 3 AM...DRY SLOT AND CLEAR SKIES RUNNING THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LOWER CLOUD NOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
MISS RIVER IN NERN IA AND SERN MN. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE AROUND
WITH LIGHT WIND IN THE CLEAR SECTOR THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE NEAR ZERO.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
TRACK IT THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES OR A BIT NORTH. THIS PLACES THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP BY LATER AFTERNOON /7.5-8.5 C
PER KM/ AS THIS OCCURS AND WITH CIRCULATION CENTER SO
CLOSE...THINKING SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO COMBINES WITH LIFT UP THE THETA-E SURFACES IN
THAT AREA AND A SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WORKING NORTH
AROUND THE LOW. THIS SCT SHOWERS AREA WILL EXTEND BACK TOWARD THE
WEST WHERE MAIN MOIST PLUME WILL BE INCOMING.
TONIGHT...GOOD CONSENSUS ON DRAGGING THE WRAP AROUND RAIN BAND
THROUGH THE AREA. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MODELS ARE SATURATED...SOME
VERY SATURATED FROM 0-3KM. FORCING REMAINS THAT TROWAL AIR STREAM
WITH THETA-E SURFACE LIFT RISING AS THE PARCEL MOVE SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH WEAKER FORCING THAN CURRENTLY OUT WEST...THE 06.00Z GFS HAS 7
UB/S OF LIFT FROM 0-3KM AT KLSE AT 06Z AND THE LAYER IS TOTALLY
SATURATED. THUS...HAVE PUT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THINKING THAT OUR RAIN CHANCES MAY BE TOO
LOW. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO BUMP THE RAIN CHANCES.
THE LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE
CLOUDS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST
CYCLE - VERY NEAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD OVERALL WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
MIDWEST AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500MB PATTERN THROUGH
ABOUT THURSDAY WHICH DEFINES THE DIGGING OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OUT WEST. THE ENSEMBLES AND THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
05.12Z/06.00Z AND 06.00Z GEM/GFS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON HOW THAT
TROUGH ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND DAKOTAS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A VERY MILD WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AS THE TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST.
OVERALL...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND PREFER THE SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE ECMWF FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS FOR SLOWER TIMING. BOTTOM
LINE IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEEK AFTER A WARM SUNNY WEEK.
NOT SURE THERE IS EVEN A FROST OR VALLEY FOG DAY IN THERE WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES PREDICTED BECAUSE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN SO
RAPIDLY. ONLY FROST TIME FRAME IS POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN IF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOESNT KICK IN FAST
ENOUGH. A CALM MONDAY EVENING AND RAPID COOL DOWN WOULD SEEM TO
SUGGEST LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S....WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS KICKING
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
A STRONG MID LEVEL LOW ROTATING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS IA WILL SPREAD
VFR CLOUD DECKS IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY.
DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECKS AND SOME
MVFR VSBYS IN -RA/-SHRA NORTH/WEST OF THIS LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WESTERN MN/EASTERN SD EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST IL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE LOWER
CLOUDS/-RA/-SHRA WILL SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT. WITH ANY PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT...DID LEAVE
VSBYS AT KRST/KLSE AS P6SM TONIGHT. WITH SOME DIURNAL WARMING/
MIXING...CIGS IN THE BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RISE
TODAY. THUS ONLY BROUGHT CIGS DOWN TO THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE AT THE
TAF SITES WITH THE -RA/-SHRA TONIGHT. A BIT DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT
DECREASING CLOUDS/CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST END OF
THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA MON
MORNING. INTRODUCED SCT CLOUDS AT KRST AT 10Z...WITH THIS LOOKING TO
REACH KLSE AROUND 14Z MON. GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED AT
KRST/KLSE FOR MOST OF THE MON-FRI PERIOD...BUT FOR THE SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF SOME VALLEY BR/FG TUE MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
327 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
FORECAST A BIT MORE QUIET THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH LOW IMPACT
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WITH THE LONGWAVE
LOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMING
IN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOCATES THE CENTER OF THE 300-500MB CIRCULATION
EAST OF KSUX IOWA WITH A SLOW DRIFT EAST. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
INDICATING WRAP AROUND MOIST PLUME CONTINUING FROM KINL-KFAR-KABR-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH RAINFALL OF .03 TO .08 PER HOUR IN THE BAND. CLOUDS
ARE LOW TOO...SO A WELL SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. PER RAP ANALYSIS...GOOD
CORRELATION WITH THE 305-308 THETA-E SURFACE AND FLOW UP THE
SURFACE WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME / TROWAL. ANOTHER DEFORMATION BAND
CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER ITSELF IS FOUND IN NW IA WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR THERE. THESE ARE PLAYERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST. AT 3 AM...DRY SLOT AND CLEAR SKIES RUNNING THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LOWER CLOUD NOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
MISS RIVER IN NERN IA AND SERN MN. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE AROUND
WITH LIGHT WIND IN THE CLEAR SECTOR THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE NEAR ZERO.
THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
TRACK IT THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES OR A BIT NORTH. THIS PLACES THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP BY LATER AFTERNOON /7.5-8.5 C
PER KM/ AS THIS OCCURS AND WITH CIRCULATION CENTER SO
CLOSE...THINKING SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ALSO COMBINES WITH LIFT UP THE THETA-E SURFACES IN
THAT AREA AND A SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WORKING NORTH
AROUND THE LOW. THIS SCT SHOWERS AREA WILL EXTEND BACK TOWARD THE
WEST WHERE MAIN MOIST PLUME WILL BE INCOMING.
TONIGHT...GOOD CONSENSUS ON DRAGGING THE WRAP AROUND RAIN BAND
THROUGH THE AREA. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MODELS ARE SATURATED...SOME
VERY SATURATED FROM 0-3KM. FORCING REMAINS THAT TROWAL AIR STREAM
WITH THETA-E SURFACE LIFT RISING AS THE PARCEL MOVE SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH WEAKER FORCING THAN CURRENTLY OUT WEST...THE 06.00Z GFS HAS 7
UB/S OF LIFT FROM 0-3KM AT KLSE AT 06Z AND THE LAYER IS TOTALLY
SATURATED. THUS...HAVE PUT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THINKING THAT OUR RAIN CHANCES MAY BE TOO
LOW. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO BUMP THE RAIN CHANCES.
THE LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY AND WITH IT THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE
CLOUDS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST
CYCLE - VERY NEAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2013
PRETTY QUIET PERIOD OVERALL WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
MIDWEST AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500MB PATTERN THROUGH
ABOUT THURSDAY WHICH DEFINES THE DIGGING OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OUT WEST. THE ENSEMBLES AND THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
05.12Z/06.00Z AND 06.00Z GEM/GFS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON HOW THAT
TROUGH ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND DAKOTAS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A VERY MILD WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AS THE TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST.
OVERALL...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND PREFER THE SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE ECMWF FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS FOR SLOWER TIMING. BOTTOM
LINE IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEEK AFTER A WARM SUNNY WEEK.
NOT SURE THERE IS EVEN A FROST OR VALLEY FOG DAY IN THERE WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES PREDICTED BECAUSE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN SO
RAPIDLY. ONLY FROST TIME FRAME IS POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN IF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DOESNT KICK IN FAST
ENOUGH. A CALM MONDAY EVENING AND RAPID COOL DOWN WOULD SEEM TO
SUGGEST LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S....WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS KICKING
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013
CLEAR SLOT OVER BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING BUT CLOUDS IN THE
DEFORMATION AREA ARE MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS. EXPECT
THESE WILL SPREAD OVER KRST OVERNIGHT WITH A VFR CEILING. STILL A
THREAT FOR FOG TO FORM AT KLSE IF THE CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNRISE OR AFTER. THE RAP RUNS THROUGH THE EVENING HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING THE FORMATION OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
EVENING...BUT OPTED TO STAY WITH BCFG AS THERE WAS STILL AN 11F
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT 04Z. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN SPREAD OVER KLSE
BY MID MORNING. SOME SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE DEFORMATION
BAND OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A VCSH AT
KRST FOR THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AT KRST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GO
DOWN TO MVFR SUNDAY EVENING. THESE CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...THE 06.00Z NAM INDICATES THESE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. COULD STILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY EVENING AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO EVEN INCLUDE A VCSH AT THIS POINT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF JAX AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST, WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT
WITH MUCH DRIER ALOFT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. AS THE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW PWAT DROPPING TO
1.5 INCHES OR LESS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE PWAT IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1.8-1.9 INCHES THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE, THE MEDIUM RANGE AND SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE HUGE DIFFERENCES ON RAINFALL COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THE NAM
SHOWS VIRTUALLY NOTHING WHILE THE HRRR DEPICTS SCATTERED COVERAGE
DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND SPREADING
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
CONSIDERED, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS AND HAVE THUS
DEPICTED THIS IN THE GRIDS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SEEING
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND NO ACTIVITY FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 70 87 74 / 20 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 72 87 77 / 30 20 30 10
MIAMI 89 72 88 77 / 30 20 30 20
NAPLES 87 74 87 74 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
313 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
U/L PATTERN WILL BEGIN WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN U/L FLOW. DIGGING SHORTWAVE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL INDUCE RIDGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY. STRONG CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP UP THE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE MAIN U/L FLOW PUSHED NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA. WEAK U/L LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STAGES TRAPPED UNDER THE STRONG RIDGE. THE STRONG DISTURBANCE OVER
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP EJECT THE WEAK LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...
WITH AN U/L RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY WITH A FEW RAP AROUND SHOWERS PERSISTING
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A LOW BEGINS TO CUT OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE. SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO HAZARDS EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 70 88 70 / 20 10 10 10
FMY 88 71 89 70 / 20 10 10 10
GIF 89 69 89 67 / 20 10 10 10
SRQ 86 71 87 69 / 20 10 10 10
BKV 88 66 86 62 / 20 10 10 10
SPG 87 75 87 73 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-
PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
308 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
307 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM ARE MAX TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE CENTER OF
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA/OHIO. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING IN A
FEW LOCATIONS TO HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY. ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INFLUENCE
FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AND HAS MANY SITES NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN IL HAVING GONE CALM. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE RADIATED INTO THE MID 40S. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEEING
ACROSS THE BOARD TEMPS MUCH COOLER HAS BEEN THE WINDS ALOFT
HOVERING AT 20KT ARND 2KFT AGL...SHOWN BY THE VWP FROM THE WSR-88D
KLOT. THIS HAS CREATED JUST ENOUGH FRICTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY RADIATING. ALTHOUGH A FEW
TRADITIONAL SPOTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW 40S. IN
ADDITIONALLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM...HOWEVER THIS
WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY AS A WORST CASE SCENARIO THIS MORNING GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WHERE THE FOG FORMS
EXPECT TEMPS TO RADIATE FURTHER INTO TO ARND 40 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK.
THEN THE SHALLOW FOG SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT BY 14Z.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARND 10KT WILL ALLOW
SFC TEMPS TO STEADILY WARM ABOVE CLIMO TODAY. MANY PLUMES INDICATE
TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S THIS
AFTN...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FALLING ALONG SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO
KANKAKEE LINE. DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE WARM SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AID IN DEVELOPING A LAKE BREEZE TODAY. EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE
TO BE MORE OF AN IMPACT TO NORTHEAST IL RATHER THAN NORTHWEST IN AS
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MOVEMENT ONSHORE FOR
NORTHWEST IN. THUS AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MI WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS
EARLY THIS AFTN COOL INTO THE MID 60S BEHIND THE BREEZE.
AFTERNOON MIXING WILL HOLD DEW PTS IN THE MID 40S...WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY
LESS THAN 10KTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADILY COOLING INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S. URBAN HEAT ISLAND WILL KEEP THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IN
THE LOW/MID 50S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MUCH OF THE MEDIUM TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD 500MB RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/QUEBEC. ENSEMBLES HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS LIKELY A
REFLECTION OF THE DIGGING/STRENGTHENING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TOWARDS THE THUR/FRI TIMEFRAME THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND PIVOT EAST...WHICH BEGINS TO SIGNAL THAT THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST. SFC FEATURES
SUPPORT THIS WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINNING TO LOOSEN ITS
INFLUENCE BY FRI...AS LLVL MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE
OZARKS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO PROG A VORT SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE
TROUGH AXIS AND LIFTING NORTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRI...WITH A
CHANNEL OF MOISTURE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS FRI AFTN. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH DRIFTS EAST FRI NIGHT...IT
SHOULD BRING THE EARLIEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WESTERN CWFA. HOWEVER MID-LVL HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED...WHICH COULD
SIGNAL KEEPING FRI NIGHT DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA.
TEMP PLUMES FOR WED/THUR/FRI ALL SIGNAL ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS...MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE TEMPS FRI WARMING INTO THE UPR
70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL
TROUGH.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A MID-LVL RIDGE
PARKED ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WHICH WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL
ROLE IN THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SYSTEM. GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WAS INDICATING THE MID-LVL RIDGE WOULD
WEAKEN...HOWEVER LATEST ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING MAY TAKE PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR SAT WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 70S
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES A SLOWER
EVOLUTION/ARRIVAL TO THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
TAKE PLACE...PUSHING PRECIP INTO SAT NIGHT/SUN. THE CHANNEL OF
MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SUN AFTN/MON WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK
INTO THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM IN MANY AREAS
BUT STILL A LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT NEAR THE URBAN AND
WARMER TAF SITES. CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION AS TEMPS DROP TO THE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW DEEP ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL
BECOME AND CURRENT SHALLOW FOG MENTION SEEMS REASONABLE AT DPA/RFD
AND HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF ORD/MDW/GYY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12KTS BY LATE MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
MAKES LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS WIND WILL LIKELY
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG WITH SOME FORM OF A LAKE BREEZE AT LEAST
ALONG THE IL SHORE. HOW FAR INLAND IT MOVES AND WHETHER IT WILL
REACH ORD/MDW IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AND HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT
TRENDS. SHOULD A LAKE BREEZE MAKE IT TO ORD/MDW...A SHIFT TO THE
EAST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW FOR FOG THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM A LAKE BREEZE WILL FORM...LOW IT WILL REACH ORD/MDW.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHC OF TSRA.
SUNDAY...SLGT CHC OF SHRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
306 PM CDT
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
TO STRETCH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN.
RIDGE TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE CENTER SHIFTS
SLOWLY TO OVER NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHEAST GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WIND TO DIMINISH
GRADUALLY. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOT UNTIL SATURDAY.
KB/DZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
136 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 136 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Ridge of high pressure currently centered over the Ohio River
Valley will dominate the weather across central Illinois over the
next several days. With calm winds beneath the ridge axis and
06z/1am temp/dewpoint spreads of only 1 to 2 degrees, think
shallow ground fog will develop across the E/SE KILX CWA over the
next couple of hours. HRRR suggests this as well, with fog
generally forming along and southeast of a Danville to Shelbyville
line. Will include patchy fog across this area early this morning
accordingly. Once fog dissipates, sunny skies can be expected
across the board for the remainder of the day. Full sunshine
working on dry airmass will boost temperatures several degrees
warmer than yesterday, with afternoon highs topping out in the
middle to upper 70s.
Surface ridge axis will begin to shift northward on Wednesday,
allowing light southerly winds to back to a more east-southeast
direction. This will temporarily curtail the warming trend, with
highs perhaps a degree or two cooler than today in the middle 70s.
With high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, both the NAM and
GFS suggest some moisture associated with persistent upper low
over the SE CONUS may advect northwestward around the periphery of
the high into central Illinois on Thursday. Forecast soundings
remain dry and forcing is completely absent, so only noticeable
change in the weather will be a few more clouds. Under partly to
mostly sunny skies, highs will once again reach the middle to
upper 70s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Warmest day of the forecast period will be Friday, when southerly
winds allow highs to approach the 80-degree mark. Meanwhile,
closed upper low over the Desert Southwest will begin lifting
northeastward into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, dragging a
cold front into Illinois over the weekend. Latest run of the GFS
continues to be rather progressive with the approaching front,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area
Saturday/Saturday night, then quickly departing on Sunday. 12z
ECMWF remains slower, with precip holding off until Saturday night
into Sunday. Given developing blocking pattern due to upper low
meandering northward into the Mid-Atlantic states later this week,
would tend to side with the slower ECMWF solution. As a result,
will keep chance POPs confined to the western half of the KILX CWA
during the day Saturday, with rain chances spreading across the
entire area Saturday night. Will hold on to chance POPs in the
east on Sunday as well, as front will be slow to depart. After
that, a return to dry weather with seasonable temps in the upper
60s and lower 70s can be expected by Monday.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2013
Surface ridge extends northeast from southern Missouri across
southern Illinois and Indiana. Light southwest winds will continue
overnight under clear skies. Will have to watch KCMI and possibly
KDEC for the potential for shallow ground fog late tonight as
these sights are closest to ridge axis. Current dew point
depressions are noticeably higher than further southeast and will
leave reductions in visibility out for now, particularly with the
shallow nature of any fog that might develop.
Winds should come up to 8-10 knots by late morning as ridge pushes
east and recycled return flow begins. Light southeast winds can be
expected Tuesday evening. Some cirrus may advect in from the
northwest by evening.
Barker
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
253 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LACK
OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO CHANGED PRECIPITATION TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST FA ARE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 20 TO 25KTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH GUSTS UNDER ADVISORY
AS WELL. THIS DECISION WAS ALSO BASED ON CONSENSUS FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
H925-850 LAYER MEAN WINDS RANGE FROM 27 TO 36 KTS THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H7 WINDS ARE FROM 45-48KTS. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS 35
KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS IS PERIODS 5
AND 6 IT IS TOO EARLY FOR A WIND HIGHLIGHT. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS.
WINDS AND RH FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON LOOK ON TRACK
WITH 25KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER FROM NAM BUFKIT. MIN RH VALUES FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT SO PLAN TO CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS WEDNESDAY, THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
SHOWS 15 TO 20KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT RH
VALUES ARE MARGINAL EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER
80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND LOWER 80S IN THE EAST. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID
50S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
ON FRIDAY...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR STRONGER
WINDS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH THE NEW TROUGH
PATTERN.
STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET ACTIVITY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH COULD KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. WINDS COULD BE STRONG WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE COOL AIR MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S FOR
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT MON OCT 7 2013
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KGLD AND KMCK. SFC TROUGH OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-13KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL GUST INTO THE
25-30KT RANGE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY SUBSIDING BACK
TO 10-15KTS BY 00Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT KMCK. AT KGLD WINDS MAY START TO GUST TO 25KTS AGAIN
AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 6 PM MDT /7
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
119 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF OVER THE
GREAT LKS SANDWICHED BTWN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS AND
ANOTHER RDG OFF THE E COAST. H925-85 THERMAL TROF ASSOCIATED WITH
REINFORCING SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE UPR LKS AND MOIST LLVLS SHOWN ON
THE 12Z YPL RAOB HAVE BROUGHT QUITE A BIT OF CLD COVER TO MUCH OF
THE CWA...AND THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN A FEW -SHRA...MAINLY OVER THE E
HALF OF UPR MI. THE CLDS HAVE BEEN MORE SCT NEAR THE WI BORDER AND
ESPECIALLY THE SCENTRAL...WHERE LLVL NW FLOW BTWN SFC LO PRES MOVING
INTO QUEBEC AND HI PRES IN THE PLAINS IS DOWNSLOPING.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MAINLY LO CLD TRENDS/TEMPS.
TNGT...SINCE THE UPR PATTERN IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...MODELS SHOW UPR
RDG AXIS TO THE W SLIDING E AND OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z
TUE... WITH SFC HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING LLVL THERMAL TROF/CYC NW FLOW WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CLDS
OVER THE E HALF THIS EVNG...ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS AND
BACKING LLVL FLOW TO THE W AND THEN SW WL CAUSE SKIES TO TURN MOCLR.
THERE COULD BE SOME MID/HI CLDS OVER MAINLY THE NW LATER IN THE
RETURN SW FLOW...BUT THE BULK OF THIS CLD SHOULD STAY IN CANADA.
EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SCENTRAL...WHERE SKIES
WL BE MOCLR/WINDS LIGHTER THRU THE NGT.
TUE...THE CWA WL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG SW FLOW UNDER SHARPENING
PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND SFC LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA RIDING OVER THE UPR RDG. ALTHOUGH
SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE/WAD WL
BRUSH THE NW CWA...FCST SDNGS SHOW SO MUCH LO-MID DRY AIR THAT THE
ONLY IMPACT WL BE SOME HI CLDS. 12Z NAM/GFS SHOW SW H925 WINDS
INCRSG TO 45-50 KTS IN THE AFTN OVER THE WRN CWA TO THE S OF PRES
FALL CENTER OVER NW ONTARIO E OF THE SFC LO CENTER. MIXING TO H925
ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS APRCHG 70 OVER THE W AND HINTS SOME
WIND GUSTS MAY AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS
OVER THE W.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PEELING OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND A LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL WARM AIR OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S) THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR
WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOW IN
CANADA WEAKENING WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF FOG IN THE NAM/SREF OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THAT STARTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND IT SEEMS LIKE A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
THAT MAY NOT BE TOO UNREASONABLE BUT DIDN/T ADD ANY FOG AT THIS
TIME.
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AROUND MID
WEEK WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND THEN INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK BUT THE CWA SHOULD STILL SEE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LINE OF SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS. DID PUT IN A
MENTION OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...AS THERE IS A POCKET OF MARGINAL MUCAPE VALUES ALONG THE
FRONT (ALONG WITH SHOWALTER APPROACHING ZERO).
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY BEGIN TO GROW ON
THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES AFFECTING THE AREA. BUT THE LARGER SCALE
IDEA OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BEING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH.
00Z/12Z ECMWF/GEM RUNS ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EJECTING
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS (LIKE IT/S PREVIOUS RUN) STILL
HOLDS ONTO THE DRIER IDEA AND NO SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. SINCE IT
IS STILL A WAYS OFF...WILL FOLLOW A HIGH END SLIGHT AND LOW END
CHANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POPS AND SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS GO. IF
THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...COULD SEE A DECENT RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVING FROM THE WRN
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA WILL LEAD TO LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING AT KIWD. DEEPENING MIXED
LAYER AND TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL THEN LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AT ALL
TERMINALS TODAY. WITH KIWD/KSAW MORE EXPOSED TO SOUTHERLY WINDS...
EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR BETTER AT THOSE TERMINALS IN THE AFTN. WHERE
WINDS DECOUPLE TONIGHT (MOST LIKELY AT KCMX WHICH IS MORE SHELTERED
WITH S WINDS)...LLWS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013
EXPECT NW WINDS UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH
STEADILY W-E TONIGHT AS A HI PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
A STRONGER S FLOW...WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KTS...WILL THEN DOMINATE
LATER TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE E AND A SHARPER
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A LO PRES SYSTEM MOVING THRU
SCENTRAL CANADA GETS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER LAKES. PLAN ON LIGHTER
S-SW WINDS WED THRU SAT AS THE HI TO THE E REBUILDS BACK TOWARD THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A WEAKER GRADIENT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
326 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
A GENERALLY BENIGN COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NW AT LVM-BIL-MLS AS OF 08Z. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE SKIRTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT.
LOOKING WEST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY JET ALONG
THE BC COAST...WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 140 KTS AT 300MB.
SO AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS UNDERWAY AS THIS JET WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOW TO CUT OFF OVER CA ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR REGION BY THURSDAY.
CURRENT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A DRY ONE WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUD OVER OUR REGION. COMBINATION OF WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG IDAHO PV MAX AND SOME MODEST DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHERN MTNS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO NORTH/UPSLOPE
HELPING THIS CAUSE. MORE INTERESTING FACET OF THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS IS THE PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG/MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM
THE SOUTH AS LOW DEEPENS TO OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIFT BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH OF
ASCENT AND PRODUCTION OF QPF. FEEL THAT THE DEPTH OF MID LEVEL
FORCING AND MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN AND WILL SUSTAIN CHANCE POPS ON
WEDNESDAY. PCPN TYPE WILL BE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME
SNOW ABOVE 7KFT OR SO. MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS OF THE PCPN WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL SUSTAIN LOW POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT FORCING
DOES BECOME MUCH WEAKER AND THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE A DRY
PERIOD...AS WE AWAIT UPPER LOW TO OUR SW.
TEMPS WILL TURN BACK BELOW NORMAL THESE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY AND IN THE 50S/NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS ON THE LATTER DAY POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY
LIGHT PCPN. MONDAY AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SOME
SNOW COVER ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES WHICH WILL HAVE A LITTLE IMPACT
ON TEMPS IN THESE AREAS AGAIN TODAY. NOT IN BILLINGS THOUGH...PER
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW-N WINDS...SO EXPECT THE CITY TO ACTUALLY REACH
ITS POTENTIAL TODAY WITH A HIGH TEMP INTO THE LOW 60S.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS EXTENDED PACKAGE WILL BE TWO TIME FRAMES. THE
FIRST WILL BE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SECOND WILL BE IN THE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON THURSDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF TROUGH WILL SEND SOME
WEAK ENERGY ACROSS...ALONG WITH DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW...FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE BIGGER EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW KICKS OUT.
MODELS AGREE ON TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS AND POSITIONING
IT SOUTHEAST OF RAPID CITY EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS KICK IT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL SEND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WITH STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE
EASTERN FOUR COUNTIES. RAISED POPS FURTHER. ALSO BUMPED WIND
SPEEDS AS THE SYSTEM CRANKS UP. STILL LOOKS TOO WARM FOR SNOW OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODELS DRIVE ENERGY INTO IDAHO SUNDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE. THE ECMWF WAS THE DEEPEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ACTUALLY CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO FOR STRONG ASCENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF LINGERS THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SENDS THE WEAKER TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND ENERGY SINKING SOUTH. THERE WAS A GOOD DEAL OF
DIFFERENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT EITHER WAY...BOTH MODELS
GENERATE A SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE WINDS WINDS SHOULD BE NOT STRONG. THERE WILL
BE CLOUDS AROUND TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
MAINLY ABOVE 8 THOUSAND FEET. VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 039/055 039/054 040/052 036/050 036/044 031/043
0/B 23/W 24/W 53/W 21/B 34/W 54/W
LVM 057 035/053 035/055 034/048 033/046 030/044 028/042
1/B 22/W 24/W 64/W 22/W 35/W 64/W
HDN 062 038/058 038/055 039/054 037/051 036/046 032/044
0/B 23/W 24/W 53/W 21/B 23/W 45/W
MLS 065 040/059 039/060 040/055 037/053 035/051 031/047
0/B 03/W 23/W 65/W 20/B 21/B 34/W
4BQ 064 039/059 039/058 039/051 036/050 035/049 032/044
0/B 12/W 13/W 75/W 20/B 11/B 45/W
BHK 064 038/059 039/058 041/051 035/050 032/049 029/043
0/B 02/W 13/W 78/W 30/B 21/B 24/W
SHR 061 038/057 037/057 037/052 033/048 031/045 028/042
0/B 23/W 24/W 54/W 21/B 22/W 65/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
A BROAD AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING SWEPT IN AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE THESE
CLOUDS THE BEST AND WAS THE BASIS FOR THE SKY FORECAST.
THE RAP MODEL SHOWS A THERMAL RIDGE WITH H700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT OVER THE SNOW FIELD
ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S
AND 60S. THE NAM SHOWS MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 800 MB SOUTH AND 850
MB NORTH BUT THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLBF LAST NIGHT SHOWED A
MIXING TO 750 MB. THIS WAS ABOUT 50 MB HIGHER THAN THE NAM WAS
FORECASTING. SO THE FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE WARMER MET
GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED THE BEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY...WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
ERN COLO. THIS WILL HELP PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT PART WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
SFC TROF AND STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM ROUGHLY KSNY TO KVTN.
THE FRONT WILL HELP POOL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS TONIGHT SHOULD
RISE INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE
NAM MODEL THEN SHOWS A BANK OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB. THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG...IF
IT DEVELOPS...SHOULD MIX OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE
MODEL.
LASTLY...THE NAM AND RAP MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY BELT OF 30
TO 45 KT H850 MB WINDS TODAY ANGLED FROM KMCK TO KONL. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE ERN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 70S...COOLER ACROSS THE NW...60S. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL RESIDE ACROSS DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH SW
FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
BY THURSDAY THE AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW FROM YESTERDAY. THE NAM AND THE GEM HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY
BIAS...HOWEVER AT THE SFC THE LOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...ACROSS NE
COLORADO. THE SFC LOW WILL RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH PWATS REACHING
AROUND 1 INCH...WHICH IS 2SD FOR OCTOBER. SPEED SHEAR IS GREAT
THROUGH THE COLUMN...WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR GOOD ONLY IN THE
LOWEST LEVEL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO FIRE AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
MID AFTERNOON THURS TO THURS EVENING. SOME CONCERN WITH DEW PTS
ONLY IN THE 50S...HOWEVER FOR OCTOBER...SHOULD BE GOOD FOR SOME
SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS. ALTHOUGH WITH THE GOOD
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVEL NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT...WILL NEED TO MONITOR A POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO THREAT.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE STORMS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STORM MOTION TO THE NE AROUND 40 MPH. LOW POPS START THURSDAY 18Z
TO 21Z AND INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS STORMS COVERAGE
LIKELY INCREASES. OVERNIGHT THE LOW WILL LIFT NE AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR WRAP AROUND AND DRY SLOT...AS BOTH TO IMPACT THE AREA.
FRIDAY COOLER TEMPS AS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.
NO ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY COOL
INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE MAIN LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO
CANADA...WHILE A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. BY SATURDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPS...FROM RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...T/TD SPREAD
SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY SOME PASSING CLOUDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ZONAL FLOW WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. THEN ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND SLOWER...MONDAY INTO TUES.
LOW POPS FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
VFR FLIGHT CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS AON 25000 FT AGL IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH
THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
315 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY EVENING...COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING ON
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO FULL SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH A DEEP-LAYER OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TODAY...AND THEN MODERATE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 309 AM EDT TUESDAY...STRATUS DECK REMAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING IN FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER BETWEEN 3-5 KFT...WITH SOME
LOWER CLOUDS HGTS VCNTY MTNS WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES.
COMBINATION OF DRY ADVECTION AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD DISSIPATE THESE REMAINING
CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING LATEST VCNTY OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND N-CENTRAL/NERN VT. A FEW FAIR WX CU WILL DOT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN HOURS...BUT SKIES WILL OTHERWISE BE
SUNNY. SHOULD BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT
BTV...60F OR SO AFTER HITTING 80 YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NW AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES.
CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT WITH CENTER OF SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-14Z WEDNESDAY. MAY
SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE. MARGINAL FROST ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN SPOTS
BASED ON LOW TEMPS 35-38F...AND AROUND 40F ON GRAND ISLE WITH
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES. INCLUDED PATCHY
FROST FOR THOSE ISOLATED SPOTS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH MIN
TEMPS FORECAST AT 36F OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH LOWS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 AM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE. USED BLEND OF MOS
CONSENSUS AND BIAS-CORRECTED MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES...WHICH
SHOULD MODERATE THRU THE PERIOD. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MID 60S WED AND
UPR 60S THU FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE WIDELY UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...FROM NEAR
30F AT SLK/ESSEX COUNTY TO THE UPR 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL VERY QUIET DAYS 4 THRU 7
ANTICIPATED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BLW NORMAL CHCS FOR PRECIP.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE NE CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES WL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL MINOR IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA THRU THE
TIME PERIOD. FIRST WL BE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON FRI-SAT...WHICH COULD SPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER EASTERLY
FLW INTO OUR REGION...ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOW BEST LIFT/MOISTURE SOUTH OF OUR CWA THOUGH. NEXT
FEATURE IS A WEAK BACKDOOR SFC COLD FRONT ON SAT
AFTN/EVENING...WHICH WL PRODUCE COOLER TEMPS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE
ACRS THE NEK OF VERMONT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN 10-12C FOR
FRIDAY...BUT FALL BTWN 6-8C BY 06Z SUNDAY ACRS EASTERN VT. WL
MENTION SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...RIDGE ALOFT REBUILDS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT
WEEK SFC ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW A WEAK
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT...SO WL MENTION SCHC/CHC
POPS...MAINLY ACRS NNY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70F WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50F THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE CIGS THRU THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH WINDS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SECONDARY COLD
FRNT ACRS THE CPV ATTM...WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KNOTS. THIS UPSLOPE FLW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH LLVL CAA WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS AT SLK THIS MORNING...BASED ON RAP 13 RH PROFILES. LATEST
3.9 SATL TRENDS SHOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING ACRS THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND SLV ATTM...WHICH WL MOVE INTO THE DACKS AND THE REST OF OUR
CWA THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS INTO THE REGION...DRIER AIR ADVECTS
ACRS OUR TAF SITES RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. STILL
THINKING SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS WL LINGER AT SLK/MPV THRU THIS
MORNING...WITH WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNTS. EXPECT CLR SKIES WITH
LIGHT WINDS BY EVENING WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BTWN
04-06Z...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU
SATURDAY...WITH EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR IN MORNING
FOG/BR...ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1054 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MORRISVILLE
STATE AIRPORT (KMVL) HAVE NOT REPORTED SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS OUTAGE IS DUE TO TELEPHONE LINE ISSUES WHICH ARE PREVENTING
THE OBSERVATIONS FROM BEING TRANSMITTED TO THE OUTSIDE
WORLD. THE TELEPHONE COMPANY HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS. NO
ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN SERVICE WILL BE
RESTORED.
AS OF 1054 PM EDT MONDAY...THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER ON
TOP OF MOUNT ASCUTNEY IN SOUTHEAST VERMONT IS OFF THE AIR AT THIS
TIME. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN SERVICE
WILL BE RESTORED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY EVENING...COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING ON
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO FULL SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH A DEEP-LAYER OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TODAY...AND THEN MODERATE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 309 AM EDT TUESDAY...STRATUS DECK REMAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING IN FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER BETWEEN 3-5 KFT...WITH SOME
LOWER CLOUDS HGTS VCNTY MTNS WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES.
COMBINATION OF DRY ADVECTION AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD DISSIPATE THESE REMAINING
CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING LATEST VCNTY OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND N-CENTRAL/NERN VT. A FEW FAIR WX CU WILL DOT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN HOURS...BUT SKIES WILL OTHERWISE BE
SUNNY. SHOULD BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT
BTV...60F OR SO AFTER HITTING 80 YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NW AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES.
CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT WITH CENTER OF SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-14Z WEDNESDAY. MAY
SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE. MARGINAL FROST ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN SPOTS
BASED ON LOW TEMPS 35-38F...AND AROUND 40F ON GRAND ISLE WITH
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES. INCLUDED PATCHY
FROST FOR THOSE ISOLATED SPOTS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH MIN
TEMPS FORECAST AT 36F OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH LOWS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 AM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE. USED BLEND OF MOS
CONSENSUS AND BIAS-CORRECTED MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES...WHICH
SHOULD MODERATE THRU THE PERIOD. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MID 60S WED AND
UPR 60S THU FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE WIDELY UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...FROM NEAR
30F AT SLK/ESSEX COUNTY TO THE UPR 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT OUT A COUPLE OF KEY
ELEMENTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. FIRST THE WARMING ALOFT WITH BE
RATHER PRONOUNCED...BUT MIXING WILL BE LIMITED AND NEVER TAP INTO
THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS WELL. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR...SO
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD EXIST DURING THE DAY WITH NO REAL SHOT
AT TRAPPING ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT NIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE CIGS THRU THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH WINDS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SECONDARY COLD
FRNT ACRS THE CPV ATTM...WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KNOTS. THIS UPSLOPE FLW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH LLVL CAA WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS AT SLK THIS MORNING...BASED ON RAP 13 RH PROFILES. LATEST
3.9 SATL TRENDS SHOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING ACRS THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND SLV ATTM...WHICH WL MOVE INTO THE DACKS AND THE REST OF OUR
CWA THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS INTO THE REGION...DRIER AIR ADVECTS
ACRS OUR TAF SITES RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. STILL
THINKING SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS WL LINGER AT SLK/MPV THRU THIS
MORNING...WITH WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNTS. EXPECT CLR SKIES WITH
LIGHT WINDS BY EVENING WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BTWN
04-06Z...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU
SATURDAY...WITH EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR IN MORNING
FOG/BR...ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON TUESDAY
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 151 AM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESIDUAL LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT AND ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS WITH GRADUAL CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS DRIER/COOLER AIR
MASS ADVECTS IN WITH PREVAILING WNWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. CAN/T RULE
OUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER IN THE MTNS THRU DAYBREAK...AND
THAT IS WHERE POPS REMAIN 15-20%. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID-UPR 40S. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS/SKY GRIDS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT
THE SFC FROM THE SW...BRINGING W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ANTICIPATED FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM. COOLER AIR IN
PLACE TO START TUESDAY WITH WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE
M40S-L60S. AS THE SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...AND L-M20S IN THE HIGH
TRRN. WITH THE CPV GROWING SEASON STILL IN PLAY...MAY NEED TO
THINK ABOUT FROST ISSUES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
OUR EAST...ALLOWING FOR LGT SRLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 50S IN THE HIGH TRRN. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEY AND 30S IN THE HIGH TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT OUT A COUPLE OF KEY
ELEMENTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. FIRST THE WARMING ALOFT WITH BE
RATHER PRONOUNCED...BUT MIXING WILL BE LIMITED AND NEVER TAP INTO
THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS WELL. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR...SO
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD EXIST DURING THE DAY WITH NO REAL SHOT
AT TRAPPING ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT NIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE CIGS THRU THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH WINDS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SECONDARY COLD
FRNT ACRS THE CPV ATTM...WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KNOTS. THIS UPSLOPE FLW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH LLVL CAA WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS AT SLK THIS MORNING...BASED ON RAP 13 RH PROFILES. LATEST
3.9 SATL TRENDS SHOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING ACRS THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND SLV ATTM...WHICH WL MOVE INTO THE DACKS AND THE REST OF OUR
CWA THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS INTO THE REGION...DRIER AIR ADVECTS
ACRS OUR TAF SITES RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. STILL
THINKING SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS WL LINGER AT SLK/MPV THRU THIS
MORNING...WITH WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNTS. EXPECT CLR SKIES WITH
LIGHT WINDS BY EVENING WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BTWN
04-06Z...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU
SATURDAY...WITH EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR IN MORNING
FOG/BR...ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN..BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARDS MORNING. WAVES UP TO 2
TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED...DECREASING TO 1 TO 2 FEET TOWARDS MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1054 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MORRISVILLE
STATE AIRPORT (KMVL) AND RUTLAND-SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT
(KRUT) HAVE NOT REPORTED SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE
OUTAGES ARE DUE TO TELEPHONE LINE ISSUES WHICH ARE PREVENTING THE
OBSERVATIONS FROM THESE SITES TO BE TRANSMITTED TO THE OUTSIDE
WORLD. THE TELEPHONE COMPANY HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS. NO
ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN SERVICE WILL BE
RESTORED.
AS OF 1054 PM EDT MONDAY...THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER ON
TOP OF MOUNT ASCUTNEY IN SOUTHEAST VERMONT IS OFF THE AIR AT THIS
TIME. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN SERVICE
WILL BE RESTORED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WFO BTV
EQUIPMENT...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
140 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON TUESDAY
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1054 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
APPROACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL
KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AT
THE SFC FROM THE SW...BRINGING W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ANTICIPATED FOR THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM. COOLER AIR IN
PLACE TO START TUESDAY WITH WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL NOTICEABLY COLDER IN THE
M40S-L60S. AS THE SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...AND L-M20S IN THE HIGH
TRRN. WITH THE CPV GROWING SEASON STILL IN PLAY...MAY NEED TO
THINK ABOUT FROST ISSUES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
OUR EAST...ALLOWING FOR LGT SRLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 50S IN THE HIGH TRRN. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEY AND 30S IN THE HIGH TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT OUT A COUPLE OF KEY
ELEMENTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. FIRST THE WARMING ALOFT WITH BE
RATHER PRONOUNCED...BUT MIXING WILL BE LIMITED AND NEVER TAP INTO
THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS WELL. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR...SO
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD EXIST DURING THE DAY WITH NO REAL SHOT
AT TRAPPING ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT NIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE CIGS THRU THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH WINDS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SECONDARY COLD
FRNT ACRS THE CPV ATTM...WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KNOTS. THIS UPSLOPE FLW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH LLVL CAA WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS AT SLK THIS MORNING...BASED ON RAP 13 RH PROFILES. LATEST
3.9 SATL TRENDS SHOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING ACRS THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND SLV ATTM...WHICH WL MOVE INTO THE DACKS AND THE REST OF OUR
CWA THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS INTO THE REGION...DRIER AIR ADVECTS
ACRS OUR TAF SITES RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. STILL
THINKING SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS WL LINGER AT SLK/MPV THRU THIS
MORNING...WITH WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNTS. EXPECT CLR SKIES WITH
LIGHT WINDS BY EVENING WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BTWN
04-06Z...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU
SATURDAY...WITH EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR IN MORNING
FOG/BR...ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN..BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARDS MORNING. WAVES UP TO 2
TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED...DECREASING TO 1 TO 2 FEET TOWARDS MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1054 PM EDT MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MORRISVILLE
STATE AIRPORT (KMVL) AND RUTLAND-SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT
(KRUT) HAVE NOT REPORTED SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE
OUTAGES ARE DUE TO TELEPHONE LINE ISSUES WHICH ARE PREVENTING THE
OBSERVATIONS FROM THESE SITES TO BE TRANSMITTED TO THE OUTSIDE
WORLD. THE TELEPHONE COMPANY HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS. NO
ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN SERVICE WILL BE
RESTORED.
AS OF 1054 PM EDT MONDAY...THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER ON
TOP OF MOUNT ASCUTNEY IN SOUTHEAST VERMONT IS OFF THE AIR AT THIS
TIME. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN SERVICE
WILL BE RESTORED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WFO BTV
EQUIPMENT...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1238 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TX PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AS MR. RODGERS WOULD
SAY...IT IS A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD...AND IT WILL
REMAIN BEAUTIFUL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND SURFACE RIDGE PARKS ITSELF OVER SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WITH THE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE VEERING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS CONTINUE UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES
AND LOW DEW POINT AIR. MODEL TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT BUT WILL TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
TUESDAY WITH FORECAST NUMBERS NOT STRAYING TO FAR GUIDANCE.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ALBEIT WEAK.
SOMEWHAT MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWER 3000
FEET...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. UNSURE IF MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION BUT VISIBILITIES COULD
LOWER BELOW 1 MILE IN THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE KHBV KBKS
AREAS. OVERNIGHT NIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER BUT STILL BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES WITH THE WEAK RETURN FLOW NOT ADDING MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION
AT THIS TIME. ENJOY IT NOW A/C MAY HAVE TO CRANKED UP SOON.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL DEPEND AND LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ENHANCING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS
REGION. EXPECT THIS BREEZE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. WARM FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL LIFT N/NW AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL SURGE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE 1000 TO 500 MB
RH VALUES SHOWS AN INCREASE BETWEEN 60 TO 70 PERCENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTERACTS WITH RIDGE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DECIDED TO INCREASE
POP FORECAST TO 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUN. THE COASTAL COUNTIES
ARE MORE FAVORABLE TO RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL FROM THIS MOISTURE
SURGE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO THE MID 90S THROUGH THE
END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
BY NEXT WEEK...GULF MOISTURE WILL RAP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS PUSHING ALL THE MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA POSSIBLY BY MID WEEK.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EXCELLENT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT TO VEER EAST TUESDAY
THEN SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT
LOWERING TO 2 FEET OR LESS TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
BUILD SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ENHANCING THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER
THE GULF WATERS AS THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE MARINE
ZONES. NO SCA OR SCEC EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 88 74 89 / 0 0 0 10
BROWNSVILLE 66 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 64 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 66 91 71 93 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 65 92 70 93 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 87 75 88 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
414 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A LOW TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
FROM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING...TO OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS HAS PUSHED HIGH
CLOUDS BACK TO THE WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA BORDER. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER OVER MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. BY THE END OF
THE DAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA FOR A WEDGE TO DEVELOP DOWN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AS A
RESULT DEEP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
850 MB WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TODAY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. SREF...LOCAL WRF AND RAP MODELS
HAD BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
AROUND CHARLOTTE COUNTY TO WILKES COUNTY.
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST SO WENT WITH MILDER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. STAYED WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT TUESDAY...
IN A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET STUCK OVER THE
REGION WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE COAST.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND
DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL RESIDE OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE. IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE WEST
(NAM/ECM)...MORE EASTERLY FLOW AND PASSING SHORT WAVES WILL BRING A
GREATER CHANCE AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST (GFS)...DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED INTO
THE AREA ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. PLACED MORE WEIGHT ON THE NAM/ECM
AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WOBBLING THE LOW TO
THE WEST. WITH LOW TEMPORAL/SPATIAL CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT
40 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT WESTWARD.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...BY THEMSELVES...WOULD PRODUCE COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AREAS SEEING LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10F-15F COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE...BUT UNDER THE LOW...MAY ONLY HAVE
TEMPERATURES 3F-6F BELOW NORMAL. WITH CLOUDS INSULATING THE AREA
EACH NIGHT...TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NIGHT AND DAY WILL BE
AROUND 10F OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
CONSENSUS OF MODELS/WPC GUIDANCE SEEMS BEST THIS PERIOD DEALING WITH
UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF OVER VA/CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND DEVELOPMENT LOW PRESSURE ALONG/EAST OF THE NC/VA
COAST. THIS SOLUTION FAVORS KEEPING OUR AREA JUST ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES. LOWERED POPS SOME
BASED ON THE TRENDS WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE AT BEST MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIED FROM MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVC EAST AND NORTH OF ROANOKE TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY
ACROSS OUR SW CWA AROUND BOONE NC/MARION VA/BLUEFIELD WV.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL DURING THE DAY BUT A TAD MILDER AT NIGHT
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...AND NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN 5H HEIGHTS.
BY MONDAY...LOOKS AS IF THE MAIN TROUGH HEADS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST....WHILE THE 5H FLOW FLATTENS SOME WEST
OF US ALLOWING A FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD US MON-TUE NEXT WEEK. AT THE
MOMENT MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD PUSH
INTO SE WV MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE
ARRIVED IN THE AREA BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT COME THROUGH
ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. AIR MASS
IS COOL ENOUGH THAT FOG MAY FORM OVER THE WARMER RIVERS THEN DRIFT
INTO KLWB AND KBCB. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
CIRRUS OVER KLYH AND KDAN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FARTHER WEST
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TODAY INTO THURSDAY THE FLORIDA LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL REMAIN EAST TO
NORTHEAST...AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MOIST AS IT TAPS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE
MOISTURE WILL POOL.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH SO
THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD HELP
REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
309 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
AT 3 AM...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS SET THE STAGE FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE OVER...AS SEEN ALREADY BY VWP FROM
KDMX/KFSD/KOAX/KUEX/KTWX...THE SOURCE REGION FOR TODAYS AIR MASS.
A BREEZY DAY IS ON TAP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT EXISTS FROM CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE QUITE BREEZY TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 850 MB...AND THIS
SHOULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. FURTHER EAST INTO WISCONSIN...LESS OF A
GRADIENT BUT STILL GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN WINDS 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 5 TO 6C
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A 8 TO 10F BUMP
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR READINGS TO TOP OUT FROM 70 TO
75F...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED DRY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN CONDITIONS FOR
THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS SOME ACROSS THE
AREA...LESS MIXING SEEN IN THE SOUNDINGS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
FORECAST TARGET IN THE LONG TERM IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BY FRIDAY...THERE IS ABOVE NORMAL MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN. THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS...AND EJECTS ENERGY OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS BLOCKED
AND THIS FORCES THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...WHILE THE BEST LOW AND MID LEVEL
THERMODYNAMICS LOOK TO RESIDE SOUTH. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SPLIT THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OF THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION...AND
AT THIS TIME...LOW-END CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE
APPROPRIATE.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENCY DIVERGES BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT COULD STALL OVER
OR JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE A SECONDARY PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INCREASES...AND ALLOWS A DEFORMATION BAND
OF RAIN TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. THE 07.12Z/08.00Z
EC AND THE 08.00Z GEM SIMILARLY SHOW THIS SOLUTION...WHILE THE
08.00Z GFS PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER EAST AND LACKS THE SECONDARY
PIECE OF ENERGY...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...FAVORED
THE EC / GEM SOLUTIONS...THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY...ONLY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT ABOVE THE CONSENSUS APPROACH. THIS YIELDED
20-40 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...HIGHEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A 08.00Z
EC TYPE SOLUTION...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2013
AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS HAVE CLOSED WITHIN 2-5 DEGREES AT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... I.E. PRAIRIE DU CHIEN/LA
CROSSE/WINONA. LOOK FOR THE RIDGE TO SLIP EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BELIEVE WINDS IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT/DECOUPLED FROM INCREASING GRADIENT WIND. AREAS OF
FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE RIVER CHANNEL AND THEN
ADVECT NORTH INTO THE KLSE BETWEEN 09-13Z. BELIEVE WITH WINDS AT
BLUFFTOP OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO NEAR 20KT BY
11-12Z THAT THERE MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS ISSUE WITH OCCASIONAL
LIFR CIG. KRST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO REMAIN MIXED OVERNIGHT
FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
ONCE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13-14Z...LOOK
FOR BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING.
THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE IN THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION INTO THE 45-50KT RANGE
AROUND THE 1.5KFT LEVEL. THIS WILL HIT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO BOTH KRST/KLSE TAF SITES AFTER
03Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...WEAK LOW PRES CENTER HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE NE FL AND NOW
SITS EAST OF KXFL/SOUTH OF 41012 AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EWD.
DIFFUSE LEADING EDGE OF WEAK COOL FRONT APPEARS TO BE N/W OF BOTH
THE 09Z AND 12Z HPC-ADVERTISED POSITIONS. AS OF 13Z IT LOOKS TO
EXTEND PRETTY MUCH DUE WWD FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE SRN EDGE
OF THE JAX CWA. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BKN TO OVC LOW CLOUD DECK
PLAGUING THE NRN THIRD CWA...FROM ABOUT KMCO-KTIX NWD WITH A FEW
SCRAPS OF STFRA FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OSCEOLA/BREVARD COS.
LOOKING ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANLYS FIELDS SHOW MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE XTRM NE GOMEX ACROSS NORTH
FL AND UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. FEATURE IS COLOCATED WITH STRONG
AND RATHER NARROW H25 JET STREAK OF 70-80KT AND DEFORMATION ZONE.
MORNING RAOB DATA CLEARLY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL DRY TONGUE OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA WITH MUCH LOWER RH VALUES AOA H70 AT TBW/MLB COMPARED
TO JAX. CONSEQUENTLY...MEAN PWATS (1.4" TO 1.5") ARE SEVERAL TENTHS
LOWER THAN THOSE TO THE NORTH.
REMAINDER OF TODAY/TONIGHT...SFC LOW AND PARENT H50 TROUGH WILL LIFT
OUT TO THE ENE IN TANDEM. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE (12KM NAM/3-9KM
LOCALLY RUN WRF) SHOW WRAPAROUND MOISTURE NEAR WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETTING DRAGGED SE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SFC AND UPPER FEATURES PULL
AWAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MEAN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN LOW END SCATTERED RANGE. PLAN TO GO WITH
POPS TO ABOUT 30 AREAWIDE...WHICH MEANS TWEAKING NUMBERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA DOWN BY 10 PCT...AND UP 10 OVER THE SE. WILL GO WITH
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A LINGERING EARLY EVENING SHOWER ACROSS THE SERN
CWA COINCIDENT WITH POSITION OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE BAND.
&&
.AVIATION...STILL DEALING WITH A FEW SCRAPS OF PESKY BKN IFR ST/STFRA
NORTH OF ISM-MCO-TIX...BUT IT APPEARS THE BKN006-009 CIGS WILL LIFT
INTO THE BKN-OVC010-020 RANGE STARTING A LITTLE AFTER 14Z. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR BY 17Z-18Z.
&&
.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SEAS 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND W-4FT WELL
OFFSHORE
&&
FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX....SPRATT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013/
WED...SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE FL COAST WILL ALLOW A DRY NNW LOW
LVL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL EXCEPT FAR SRN SECTIONS
WHERE ENOUGH LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MARTIN AND ST LUCE COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
WED NIGHT...SFC LOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND APPEARS ISOLD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE CAPE SHOULD REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
THU...GFS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS THE REMAINS OF KAREN WILL
PULL A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY SFC WINDS. A
MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD INDUCE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC. ENOUGH NNE LOW LVL NORTH OF THE CAPE
TO ENTERTAIN SOME LOW COASTAL POPS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ATLC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. WILL KEEP INTERIOR
AND SRN SECTIONS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR-MID 80 N CSTL TO UPPER
80S SRN INTERIOR.
FRI...00Z GFS CONTINUES TREND TWD VEERING LOW LVL FLOW FROM N TO NE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE LEVELS. MOS POPS BELOW
5 PERCENT LOOK OPTIMISTIC WITH NE FLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE WARM
ATLC AND SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTH BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP LAND
POPS AROUND 10 PCT AND KEEP SLGT SHOWER CHCS ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS.
HIGHS LWR-MID 80S IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID-UPPER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR.
SAT-TUE...00Z GFS INDICATES MID LVL S/W TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA TO MOVE SOUTH OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP E CENTRAL FL IN A
LOW LVL NE FLOW PATTERN WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WORK DOWN
BEHIND THE LOW TWD THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
WEEKEND DRY WITH SOME LOW POPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND COOLER ALONG N CSTL. LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR
TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR TEMPO IFR/LIFR 09Z TO 14Z AS WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST WIND CONDUCIVE TO LATE NIGHT STRATUS AND
STRATOCU. VFR 14Z TO 02Z WITH TEMPOS MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DUE TO SHOWERS AND STORMS. PREVAILING MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR CEILINGS
IN THE EVENING AND TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
COMING OFF THE OCEAN AND MOVING INLAND.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...BUOYS WERE RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. WINDS SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
WED...WINDS WILL REACH SCEC LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MARINE ZONES
WED INTO THU WITH STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFFSHORE FROM THE NE FL COAST.
WINDS WILL BECOME N/NE LATE THIS WEEK TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCEC CONDITIONS IN THE GULF STREAM INTO LATE
WEEK.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
903 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
IN A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ABOUT WEST PALM BEACH
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TODAY. SO THE PWAT VALUES OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE FALLING FROM AROUND 1.6 INCHES THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 1 INCH BY THIS EVENING...AND FROM AROUND 2
INCHES THIS MORNING TO 1.5 INCHES BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. THEREFORE...THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 500 MB TEMP FROM THE MORNING MIA SOUNDING WAS ALSO SHOWING -4
TO -5 CELSIUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY DUE TO THE WARM MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
SO THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY EXCEPT LOW END CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREAS. THE THUNDER
WORDING WILL ALSO BE REMOVED FROM MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATED...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013/
AVIATION...
DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW MODERATE GUSTS THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...MAINLY FROM FLL TO
MIA/TMB. AS A RESULT...VCTS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE FOR
THESE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF JAX AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST, WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT
WITH MUCH DRIER ALOFT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. AS THE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW PWAT DROPPING TO
1.5 INCHES OR LESS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE PWAT IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1.8-1.9 INCHES THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE, THE MEDIUM RANGE AND SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE HUGE DIFFERENCES ON RAINFALL COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THE NAM
SHOWS VIRTUALLY NOTHING WHILE THE HRRR DEPICTS SCATTERED COVERAGE
DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND SPREADING
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
CONSIDERED, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS AND HAVE THUS
DEPICTED THIS IN THE GRIDS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SEEING
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND NO ACTIVITY FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 91 70 87 74 / 20 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 72 87 77 / 30 20 30 10
MIAMI 91 72 88 77 / 30 20 30 20
NAPLES 87 74 87 74 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
631 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW MODERATE GUSTS THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...MAINLY FROM FLL TO
MIA/TMB. AS A RESULT...VCTS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE FOR
THESE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF JAX AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST, WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT
WITH MUCH DRIER ALOFT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. AS THE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW PWAT DROPPING TO
1.5 INCHES OR LESS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE PWAT IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1.8-1.9 INCHES THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE, THE MEDIUM RANGE AND SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE HUGE DIFFERENCES ON RAINFALL COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THE NAM
SHOWS VIRTUALLY NOTHING WHILE THE HRRR DEPICTS SCATTERED COVERAGE
DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND SPREADING
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
CONSIDERED, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS AND HAVE THUS
DEPICTED THIS IN THE GRIDS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SEEING
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND NO ACTIVITY FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 70 87 74 / 20 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 72 87 77 / 30 20 30 10
MIAMI 89 72 88 77 / 30 20 30 20
NAPLES 85 74 87 74 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1050 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
307 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM ARE MAX TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE CENTER OF
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA/OHIO. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING IN A
FEW LOCATIONS TO HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY. ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INFLUENCE
FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AND HAS MANY SITES NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN IL HAVING GONE CALM. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE RADIATED INTO THE MID 40S. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEEING
ACROSS THE BOARD TEMPS MUCH COOLER HAS BEEN THE WINDS ALOFT
HOVERING AT 20KT ARND 2KFT AGL...SHOWN BY THE VWP FROM THE WSR-88D
KLOT. THIS HAS CREATED JUST ENOUGH FRICTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY RADIATING. ALTHOUGH A FEW
TRADITIONAL SPOTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW 40S. IN
ADDITIONALLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM...HOWEVER THIS
WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY AS A WORST CASE SCENARIO THIS MORNING GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WHERE THE FOG FORMS
EXPECT TEMPS TO RADIATE FURTHER INTO TO ARND 40 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK.
THEN THE SHALLOW FOG SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT BY 14Z.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARND 10KT WILL ALLOW
SFC TEMPS TO STEADILY WARM ABOVE CLIMO TODAY. MANY PLUMES INDICATE
TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S THIS
AFTN...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FALLING ALONG SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO
KANKAKEE LINE. DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE WARM SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AID IN DEVELOPING A LAKE BREEZE TODAY. EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE
TO BE MORE OF AN IMPACT TO NORTHEAST IL RATHER THAN NORTHWEST IN AS
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MOVEMENT ONSHORE FOR
NORTHWEST IN. THUS AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MI WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS
EARLY THIS AFTN COOL INTO THE MID 60S BEHIND THE BREEZE.
AFTERNOON MIXING WILL HOLD DEW PTS IN THE MID 40S...WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY
LESS THAN 10KTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADILY COOLING INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S. URBAN HEAT ISLAND WILL KEEP THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IN
THE LOW/MID 50S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MUCH OF THE MEDIUM TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD 500MB RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/QUEBEC. ENSEMBLES HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS LIKELY A
REFLECTION OF THE DIGGING/STRENGTHENING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TOWARDS THE THUR/FRI TIMEFRAME THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND PIVOT EAST...WHICH BEGINS TO SIGNAL THAT THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST. SFC FEATURES
SUPPORT THIS WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINNING TO LOOSEN ITS
INFLUENCE BY FRI...AS LLVL MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE
OZARKS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO PROG A VORT SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE
TROUGH AXIS AND LIFTING NORTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRI...WITH A
CHANNEL OF MOISTURE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS FRI AFTN. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH DRIFTS EAST FRI NIGHT...IT
SHOULD BRING THE EARLIEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WESTERN CWFA. HOWEVER MID-LVL HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED...WHICH COULD
SIGNAL KEEPING FRI NIGHT DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA.
TEMP PLUMES FOR WED/THUR/FRI ALL SIGNAL ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS...MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE TEMPS FRI WARMING INTO THE UPR
70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL
TROUGH.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A MID-LVL RIDGE
PARKED ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WHICH WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL
ROLE IN THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SYSTEM. GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WAS INDICATING THE MID-LVL RIDGE WOULD
WEAKEN...HOWEVER LATEST ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING MAY TAKE PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR SAT WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 70S
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES A SLOWER
EVOLUTION/ARRIVAL TO THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
TAKE PLACE...PUSHING PRECIP INTO SAT NIGHT/SUN. THE CHANNEL OF
MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SUN AFTN/MON WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK
INTO THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SLY TO
SELY OR ELY.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE
IT STRENGTHENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE...
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. DESPITE LOW LEVELS WINDS ABOVE 10
KTS...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN EASTERLY WITH A
LAKE BREEZE CLOSER TO THE IL LAKESHORE. CONCERN THEN BECOMES HOW
FAR INLAND WILL IT MOVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL REACH ORD/MDW
BY MID AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THIS FORECAST AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 10 KTS THIS
EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE FORMATION...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
IT WILL REACH ORD/MDW.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE A WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDS
BACK WEST INTO THE LAKES REGION INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE EAST TO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING LOW
AND THE STRENGTHENING HIGH TO THE EAST WILL STEADILY TIGHTEN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT PRODUCING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. SPEEDS LIKELY
TO INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE NORTH HALF LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS CURRENT TRACK WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PERHAPS
INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
935 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 935 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2013
High pressure near the Ohio/Pennsylvania border ridges southwest
all the way to southeast Oklahoma, and will keep our weather quiet
today. Dry air aloft should lead to mainly clear skies through the
day, although the RAP and NAM do hint at a bit of diurnal cumulus
south of a St Louis to Champaign line for a few hours.
Have sent some zone/grid updates mainly to remove the earlier fog
mention and update the dew point grids. Also did some minor hourly
temperature updates, but overall highs still look reasonable.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 607 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2013
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Expecting
clear skies through the period as high pressure dominates the area
for the next several days. Winds will be out of the south this
morning and into the afternoon, and then become southeasterly
later this afternoon and into the night and overnight. Wind speeds
will be around 10kts this afternoon, but less the rest of the time.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 136 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Ridge of high pressure currently centered over the Ohio River
Valley will dominate the weather across central Illinois over the
next several days. With calm winds beneath the ridge axis and
06z/1am temp/dewpoint spreads of only 1 to 2 degrees, think
shallow ground fog will develop across the E/SE KILX CWA over the
next couple of hours. HRRR suggests this as well, with fog
generally forming along and southeast of a Danville to Shelbyville
line. Will include patchy fog across this area early this morning
accordingly. Once fog dissipates, sunny skies can be expected
across the board for the remainder of the day. Full sunshine
working on dry airmass will boost temperatures several degrees
warmer than yesterday, with afternoon highs topping out in the
middle to upper 70s.
Surface ridge axis will begin to shift northward on Wednesday,
allowing light southerly winds to back to a more east-southeast
direction. This will temporarily curtail the warming trend, with
highs perhaps a degree or two cooler than today in the middle 70s.
With high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, both the NAM and
GFS suggest some moisture associated with persistent upper low
over the SE CONUS may advect northwestward around the periphery of
the high into central Illinois on Thursday. Forecast soundings
remain dry and forcing is completely absent, so only noticeable
change in the weather will be a few more clouds. Under partly to
mostly sunny skies, highs will once again reach the middle to
upper 70s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Warmest day of the forecast period will be Friday, when southerly
winds allow highs to approach the 80-degree mark. Meanwhile,
closed upper low over the Desert Southwest will begin lifting
northeastward into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, dragging a
cold front into Illinois over the weekend. Latest run of the GFS
continues to be rather progressive with the approaching front,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area
Saturday/Saturday night, then quickly departing on Sunday. 12z
ECMWF remains slower, with precip holding off until Saturday night
into Sunday. Given developing blocking pattern due to upper low
meandering northward into the Mid-Atlantic states later this week,
would tend to side with the slower ECMWF solution. As a result,
will keep chance POPs confined to the western half of the KILX CWA
during the day Saturday, with rain chances spreading across the
entire area Saturday night. Will hold on to chance POPs in the
east on Sunday as well, as front will be slow to depart. After
that, a return to dry weather with seasonable temps in the upper
60s and lower 70s can be expected by Monday.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
642 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
307 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM ARE MAX TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE CENTER OF
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA/OHIO. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING IN A
FEW LOCATIONS TO HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY. ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INFLUENCE
FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AND HAS MANY SITES NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN IL HAVING GONE CALM. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE RADIATED INTO THE MID 40S. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEEING
ACROSS THE BOARD TEMPS MUCH COOLER HAS BEEN THE WINDS ALOFT
HOVERING AT 20KT ARND 2KFT AGL...SHOWN BY THE VWP FROM THE WSR-88D
KLOT. THIS HAS CREATED JUST ENOUGH FRICTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY RADIATING. ALTHOUGH A FEW
TRADITIONAL SPOTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW 40S. IN
ADDITIONALLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM...HOWEVER THIS
WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY AS A WORST CASE SCENARIO THIS MORNING GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WHERE THE FOG FORMS
EXPECT TEMPS TO RADIATE FURTHER INTO TO ARND 40 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK.
THEN THE SHALLOW FOG SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT BY 14Z.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARND 10KT WILL ALLOW
SFC TEMPS TO STEADILY WARM ABOVE CLIMO TODAY. MANY PLUMES INDICATE
TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S THIS
AFTN...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FALLING ALONG SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO
KANKAKEE LINE. DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE WARM SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AID IN DEVELOPING A LAKE BREEZE TODAY. EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE
TO BE MORE OF AN IMPACT TO NORTHEAST IL RATHER THAN NORTHWEST IN AS
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MOVEMENT ONSHORE FOR
NORTHWEST IN. THUS AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MI WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS
EARLY THIS AFTN COOL INTO THE MID 60S BEHIND THE BREEZE.
AFTERNOON MIXING WILL HOLD DEW PTS IN THE MID 40S...WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY
LESS THAN 10KTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADILY COOLING INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S. URBAN HEAT ISLAND WILL KEEP THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IN
THE LOW/MID 50S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MUCH OF THE MEDIUM TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD 500MB RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/QUEBEC. ENSEMBLES HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS LIKELY A
REFLECTION OF THE DIGGING/STRENGTHENING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TOWARDS THE THUR/FRI TIMEFRAME THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND PIVOT EAST...WHICH BEGINS TO SIGNAL THAT THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST. SFC FEATURES
SUPPORT THIS WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINNING TO LOOSEN ITS
INFLUENCE BY FRI...AS LLVL MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE
OZARKS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO PROG A VORT SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE
TROUGH AXIS AND LIFTING NORTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRI...WITH A
CHANNEL OF MOISTURE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS FRI AFTN. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH DRIFTS EAST FRI NIGHT...IT
SHOULD BRING THE EARLIEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WESTERN CWFA. HOWEVER MID-LVL HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED...WHICH COULD
SIGNAL KEEPING FRI NIGHT DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA.
TEMP PLUMES FOR WED/THUR/FRI ALL SIGNAL ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS...MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE TEMPS FRI WARMING INTO THE UPR
70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL
TROUGH.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A MID-LVL RIDGE
PARKED ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WHICH WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL
ROLE IN THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SYSTEM. GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WAS INDICATING THE MID-LVL RIDGE WOULD
WEAKEN...HOWEVER LATEST ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING MAY TAKE PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR SAT WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 70S
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES A SLOWER
EVOLUTION/ARRIVAL TO THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
TAKE PLACE...PUSHING PRECIP INTO SAT NIGHT/SUN. THE CHANNEL OF
MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SUN AFTN/MON WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK
INTO THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE
IT STRENGTHENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE...
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. DESPITE LOW LEVELS WINDS ABOVE 10
KTS...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN EASTERLY WITH A
LAKE BREEZE CLOSER TO THE IL LAKESHORE. CONCERN THEN BECOMES HOW
FAR INLAND WILL IT MOVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL REACH ORD/MDW
BY MID AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THIS FORECAST AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 10 KTS THIS
EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM A LAKE BREEZE WILL FORM...LOW IT WILL REACH ORD/MDW. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE A WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDS
BACK WEST INTO THE LAKES REGION INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE EAST TO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING LOW
AND THE STRENGTHENING HIGH TO THE EAST WILL STEADILY TIGHTEN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT PRODUCING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. SPEEDS LIKELY
TO INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE NORTH HALF LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS CURRENT TRACK WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PERHAPS
INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
607 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 136 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Ridge of high pressure currently centered over the Ohio River
Valley will dominate the weather across central Illinois over the
next several days. With calm winds beneath the ridge axis and
06z/1am temp/dewpoint spreads of only 1 to 2 degrees, think
shallow ground fog will develop across the E/SE KILX CWA over the
next couple of hours. HRRR suggests this as well, with fog
generally forming along and southeast of a Danville to Shelbyville
line. Will include patchy fog across this area early this morning
accordingly. Once fog dissipates, sunny skies can be expected
across the board for the remainder of the day. Full sunshine
working on dry airmass will boost temperatures several degrees
warmer than yesterday, with afternoon highs topping out in the
middle to upper 70s.
Surface ridge axis will begin to shift northward on Wednesday,
allowing light southerly winds to back to a more east-southeast
direction. This will temporarily curtail the warming trend, with
highs perhaps a degree or two cooler than today in the middle 70s.
With high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, both the NAM and
GFS suggest some moisture associated with persistent upper low
over the SE CONUS may advect northwestward around the periphery of
the high into central Illinois on Thursday. Forecast soundings
remain dry and forcing is completely absent, so only noticeable
change in the weather will be a few more clouds. Under partly to
mostly sunny skies, highs will once again reach the middle to
upper 70s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Warmest day of the forecast period will be Friday, when southerly
winds allow highs to approach the 80-degree mark. Meanwhile,
closed upper low over the Desert Southwest will begin lifting
northeastward into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, dragging a
cold front into Illinois over the weekend. Latest run of the GFS
continues to be rather progressive with the approaching front,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area
Saturday/Saturday night, then quickly departing on Sunday. 12z
ECMWF remains slower, with precip holding off until Saturday night
into Sunday. Given developing blocking pattern due to upper low
meandering northward into the Mid-Atlantic states later this week,
would tend to side with the slower ECMWF solution. As a result,
will keep chance POPs confined to the western half of the KILX CWA
during the day Saturday, with rain chances spreading across the
entire area Saturday night. Will hold on to chance POPs in the
east on Sunday as well, as front will be slow to depart. After
that, a return to dry weather with seasonable temps in the upper
60s and lower 70s can be expected by Monday.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 607 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2013
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Expecting
clear skies through the period as high pressure dominates the area
for the next several days. Winds will be out of the south this
morning and into the afternoon, and then become southeasterly
later this afternoon and into the night and overnight. Wind speeds
will be around 10kts this afternoon, but less the rest of the time.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
820 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
AN UPDATE WAS JUST COMPLETED TO ADJUST WINDS...TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND
CONSSHORT SUGGESTS WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS. WINDS AT 1 KM UP ARE AROUND 35-45 KTS AND
WITH FULL AFTERNOON MIXING...SOME GUSTS NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION TO TWEAKING THE GRIDS...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE CHEYENNE COUNTY KANSAS AND KIT CARSON COUNTY
DUE TO THE LOWER HUMIDITIES AND HIGHER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MIXING IS LIMITED WITH CIRRUS SPREADING OVER BUT IT
SEEMS THE CIRRUS IS NOT TOO DENSE SO FULL MIXING SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...ESPECIALLY WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LACK
OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO CHANGED PRECIPITATION TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST FA ARE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 20 TO 25KTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH GUSTS UNDER ADVISORY
AS WELL. THIS DECISION WAS ALSO BASED ON CONSENSUS FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
H925-850 LAYER MEAN WINDS RANGE FROM 27 TO 36 KTS THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H7 WINDS ARE FROM 45-48KTS. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS 35
KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS IS PERIODS 5
AND 6 IT IS TOO EARLY FOR A WIND HIGHLIGHT. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS.
WINDS AND RH FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON LOOK ON TRACK
WITH 25KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER FROM NAM BUFKIT. MIN RH VALUES FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT SO PLAN TO CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS WEDNESDAY, THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
SHOWS 15 TO 20KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT RH
VALUES ARE MARGINAL EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER
80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND LOWER 80S IN THE EAST. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID
50S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
ON FRIDAY...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR STRONGER
WINDS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH THE NEW TROUGH
PATTERN.
STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET ACTIVITY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH COULD KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. WINDS COULD BE STRONG WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE COOL AIR MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S FOR
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BREEZY SOUTH WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
THE PERIOD FOR KGLD AND TAPER OFF SOME AT KMCK TOWARD SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM MDT /8
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ253-254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LACK
OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO CHANGED PRECIPITATION TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST FA ARE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 20 TO 25KTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH GUSTS UNDER ADVISORY
AS WELL. THIS DECISION WAS ALSO BASED ON CONSENSUS FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
H925-850 LAYER MEAN WINDS RANGE FROM 27 TO 36 KTS THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H7 WINDS ARE FROM 45-48KTS. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS 35
KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS IS PERIODS 5
AND 6 IT IS TOO EARLY FOR A WIND HIGHLIGHT. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS.
WINDS AND RH FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON LOOK ON TRACK
WITH 25KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER FROM NAM BUFKIT. MIN RH VALUES FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT SO PLAN TO CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS WEDNESDAY, THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
SHOWS 15 TO 20KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT RH
VALUES ARE MARGINAL EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER
80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND LOWER 80S IN THE EAST. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID
50S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
ON FRIDAY...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR STRONGER
WINDS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH THE NEW TROUGH
PATTERN.
STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET ACTIVITY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH COULD KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. WINDS COULD BE STRONG WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE COOL AIR MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S FOR
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
VFR CONDTIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BREEZY SOUTH WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
THE PERIOD FOR KGLD AND TAPER OFF SOME AT KMCK TOWARD SUNRISE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 6 PM MDT /7
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
914 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.UPDATE...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A
BIT OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE TODAY. NO UPDATES
TO GOING FORECAST. BORSUM
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
A GENERALLY BENIGN COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NW AT LVM-BIL-MLS AS OF 08Z. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE SKIRTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT.
LOOKING WEST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY JET ALONG
THE BC COAST...WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 140 KTS AT 300MB.
SO AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS UNDERWAY AS THIS JET WILL ALLOW
FOR A LOW TO CUT OFF OVER CA ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR REGION BY THURSDAY.
CURRENT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A DRY ONE WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUD OVER OUR REGION. COMBINATION OF WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG IDAHO PV MAX AND SOME MODEST DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR SOUTHERN MTNS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO NORTH/UPSLOPE
HELPING THIS CAUSE. MORE INTERESTING FACET OF THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS IS THE PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG/MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM
THE SOUTH AS LOW DEEPENS TO OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIFT BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH OF
ASCENT AND PRODUCTION OF QPF. FEEL THAT THE DEPTH OF MID LEVEL
FORCING AND MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN AND WILL SUSTAIN CHANCE POPS ON
WEDNESDAY. PCPN TYPE WILL BE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME
SNOW ABOVE 7KFT OR SO. MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS OF THE PCPN WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL SUSTAIN LOW POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT FORCING
DOES BECOME MUCH WEAKER AND THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE A DRY
PERIOD...AS WE AWAIT UPPER LOW TO OUR SW.
TEMPS WILL TURN BACK BELOW NORMAL THESE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY AND IN THE 50S/NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS ON THE LATTER DAY POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY
LIGHT PCPN. MONDAY AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SOME
SNOW COVER ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES WHICH WILL HAVE A LITTLE IMPACT
ON TEMPS IN THESE AREAS AGAIN TODAY. NOT IN BILLINGS THOUGH...PER
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW-N WINDS...SO EXPECT THE CITY TO ACTUALLY REACH
ITS POTENTIAL TODAY WITH A HIGH TEMP INTO THE LOW 60S.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS EXTENDED PACKAGE WILL BE TWO TIME FRAMES. THE
FIRST WILL BE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SECOND WILL BE IN THE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON THURSDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THROUGH WILL SEND SOME
WEAK ENERGY ACROSS...ALONG WITH DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW...FOR AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE BIGGER EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW KICKS OUT.
MODELS AGREE ON TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS AND POSITIONING
IT SOUTHEAST OF RAPID CITY EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS KICK IT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL SEND THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WITH STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND QG FORCING OVER THE
EASTERN FOUR COUNTIES. RAISED POPS FURTHER. ALSO BUMPED WIND
SPEEDS AS THE SYSTEM CRANKS UP. STILL LOOKS TOO WARM FOR SNOW OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KICK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODELS DRIVE ENERGY INTO IDAHO SUNDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE. THE ECMWF WAS THE DEEPEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ACTUALLY CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO FOR STRONG ASCENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF LINGERS THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SENDS THE WEAKER TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND ENERGY SINKING SOUTH. THERE WAS A GOOD DEAL OF
DIFFERENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT EITHER WAY...BOTH MODELS
GENERATE A SNOW EVENT FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MENTION IN THE HWO. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS MAY BRING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH
WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KLVM THIS AFTERNOON.
STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 039/055 039/054 040/052 036/050 036/044 031/043
0/B 23/W 24/W 53/W 21/B 34/W 54/W
LVM 057 035/053 035/055 034/048 033/046 030/044 028/042
1/B 22/W 24/W 64/W 22/W 35/W 64/W
HDN 062 038/058 038/055 039/054 037/051 036/046 032/044
0/B 23/W 24/W 53/W 21/B 23/W 45/W
MLS 065 040/059 039/060 040/055 037/053 035/051 031/047
0/B 03/W 23/W 65/W 20/B 21/B 34/W
4BQ 064 039/059 039/058 039/051 036/050 035/049 032/044
0/B 12/W 13/W 75/W 20/B 11/B 45/W
BHK 064 038/059 039/058 041/051 035/050 032/049 029/043
0/B 02/W 13/W 78/W 30/B 21/B 24/W
SHR 061 038/057 037/057 037/052 033/048 031/045 028/042
0/B 23/W 24/W 54/W 21/B 22/W 65/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
640 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
A BROAD AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING SWEPT IN AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE THESE
CLOUDS THE BEST AND WAS THE BASIS FOR THE SKY FORECAST.
THE RAP MODEL SHOWS A THERMAL RIDGE WITH H700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT OVER THE SNOW FIELD
ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S
AND 60S. THE NAM SHOWS MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 800 MB SOUTH AND 850
MB NORTH BUT THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLBF LAST NIGHT SHOWED A
MIXING TO 750 MB. THIS WAS ABOUT 50 MB HIGHER THAN THE NAM WAS
FORECASTING. SO THE FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE WARMER MET
GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED THE BEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY...WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
ERN COLO. THIS WILL HELP PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT PART WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
SFC TROF AND STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM ROUGHLY KSNY TO KVTN.
THE FRONT WILL HELP POOL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS TONIGHT SHOULD
RISE INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE
NAM MODEL THEN SHOWS A BANK OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB. THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG...IF
IT DEVELOPS...SHOULD MIX OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE
MODEL.
LASTLY...THE NAM AND RAP MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY BELT OF 30
TO 45 KT H850 MB WINDS TODAY ANGLED FROM KMCK TO KONL. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE ERN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 70S...COOLER ACROSS THE NW...60S. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL RESIDE ACROSS DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH SW
FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
BY THURSDAY THE AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW FROM YESTERDAY. THE NAM AND THE GEM HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY
BIAS...HOWEVER AT THE SFC THE LOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...ACROSS NE
COLORADO. THE SFC LOW WILL RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH PWATS REACHING
AROUND 1 INCH...WHICH IS 2SD FOR OCTOBER. SPEED SHEAR IS GREAT
THROUGH THE COLUMN...WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR GOOD ONLY IN THE
LOWEST LEVEL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO FIRE AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
MID AFTERNOON THURS TO THURS EVENING. SOME CONCERN WITH DEW PTS
ONLY IN THE 50S...HOWEVER FOR OCTOBER...SHOULD BE GOOD FOR SOME
SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS. ALTHOUGH WITH THE GOOD
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVEL NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT...WILL NEED TO MONITOR A POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO THREAT.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE STORMS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STORM MOTION TO THE NE AROUND 40 MPH. LOW POPS START THURSDAY 18Z
TO 21Z AND INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS STORMS COVERAGE
LIKELY INCREASES. OVERNIGHT THE LOW WILL LIFT NE AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR WRAP AROUND AND DRY SLOT...AS BOTH TO IMPACT THE AREA.
FRIDAY COOLER TEMPS AS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.
NO ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY COOL
INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE MAIN LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO
CANADA...WHILE A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. BY SATURDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPS...FROM RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...T/TD SPREAD
SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY SOME PASSING CLOUDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ZONAL FLOW WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. THEN ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND SLOWER...MONDAY INTO TUES.
LOW POPS FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS ERN COLO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CAUSE
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH NORTHWEST NEB...INCLUDING KVTN.
THE NAM MODEL SUGGESTS IFR CIGS/VSBY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AFTER
06Z TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR THE NAM TO
OVERFORECAST AT TIMES...IT WOULD BE BEST TO WAIT ON THE RAP MODEL
FOR CONFORMATION. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY EVENING...COOLER AND
DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING ON
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO FULL SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH A DEEP-LAYER OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TODAY...AND THEN MODERATE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE FOR DIMINISHING CLOUD TRENDS
FROM WEST TO EAST AND TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TEMPS. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRATUS DECK REMAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER BETWEEN 3-5 KFT...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS
HGTS VCNTY MTNS WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. COMBINATION OF DRY
ADVECTION AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD DISSIPATE THESE REMAINING CLOUDS BY MID-
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING LATEST VCNTY OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND N-CENTRAL/NERN VT. A FEW FAIR WX CU WILL DOT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN HOURS...BUT SKIES WILL OTHERWISE BE SUNNY.
SHOULD BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT BTV...60F OR
SO AFTER HITTING 80 YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW
AROUND 10 MPH...DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.
CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT WITH CENTER OF SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-14Z WEDNESDAY. MAY
SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE. MARGINAL FROST ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN SPOTS
BASED ON LOW TEMPS 35-38F...AND AROUND 40F ON GRAND ISLE WITH
MODERATING INFLUENCE OF WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES. INCLUDED PATCHY
FROST FOR THOSE ISOLATED SPOTS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH MIN
TEMPS FORECAST AT 36F OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH LOWS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 AM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE. USED BLEND OF MOS
CONSENSUS AND BIAS-CORRECTED MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES...WHICH
SHOULD MODERATE THRU THE PERIOD. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MID 60S WED AND
UPR 60S THU FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE WIDELY UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...FROM NEAR
30F AT SLK/ESSEX COUNTY TO THE UPR 30S/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL VERY QUIET DAYS 4 THRU 7
ANTICIPATED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BLW NORMAL CHCS FOR PRECIP.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE NE CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES WL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL MINOR IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA THRU THE
TIME PERIOD. FIRST WL BE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON FRI-SAT...WHICH COULD SPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER EASTERLY
FLW INTO OUR REGION...ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP. BOTH
ECMWF/GFS SHOW BEST LIFT/MOISTURE SOUTH OF OUR CWA THOUGH. NEXT
FEATURE IS A WEAK BACKDOOR SFC COLD FRONT ON SAT
AFTN/EVENING...WHICH WL PRODUCE COOLER TEMPS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE
ACRS THE NEK OF VERMONT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN 10-12C FOR
FRIDAY...BUT FALL BTWN 6-8C BY 06Z SUNDAY ACRS EASTERN VT. WL
MENTION SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...RIDGE ALOFT REBUILDS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT
WEEK SFC ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW A WEAK
RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT...SO WL MENTION SCHC/CHC
POPS...MAINLY ACRS NNY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70F WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50F THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE CIGS THRU THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH WINDS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SECONDARY COLD
FRNT ACRS THE CPV ATTM...WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KNOTS. THIS UPSLOPE FLW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH LLVL CAA WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS AT SLK THIS MORNING...BASED ON RAP 13 RH PROFILES. LATEST
3.9 SATL TRENDS SHOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING ACRS THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND SLV ATTM...WHICH WL MOVE INTO THE DACKS AND THE REST OF OUR
CWA THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS INTO THE REGION...DRIER AIR ADVECTS
ACRS OUR TAF SITES RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. STILL
THINKING SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS WL LINGER AT SLK/MPV THRU THIS
MORNING...WITH WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNTS. EXPECT CLR SKIES WITH
LIGHT WINDS BY EVENING WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BTWN
04-06Z...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU
SATURDAY...WITH EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR IN MORNING
FOG/BR...ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
659 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN PARK
ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL CRAWL SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS
FORMED EARLY THIS AM ACROSS WESTERN PA. HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE
BOTH INDICATE ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-14Z.
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOC WITH SFC HIGH SHOULD ENSURE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY.
GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM THE L60S OVR
THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE U60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA WILL ENSURE A DRY/TRANQUIL NIGHT. NORTHERN
EDGE OF CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN
PA. CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG/FROST.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOC SFC WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO CRAWL NORTH ALONG
THE E COAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY SPREADING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...ALL MDL DATA INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS
REMAIN OVR THE AREA...ENSURING ANOTHER DRY DAY. BRIGHTEST SKIES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE N MTNS AND THE MOST CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN UNIFORM HIGH TEMPS IN THE M60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUT OFF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC MOIST EASTERLY LL JET LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY BRING A CLOUDY AND DAMP END TO THE WORK
WEEK. GFS/GEFS MEAN BOTH INDICATING A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY TRACK
THAN OTHER MDL DATA...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF THAN ECMWF
MEAN/CMC/NAM SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY...BASED ON ALL MDL DATA INDICATING ARRIVAL OF
ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW AND PWATS...FOCUSED ESP ACROSS SE PA.
BLENDED MDL QPF YIELDS 2 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS THU-FRI RANGING FROM
ALMOST NOTHING ACROSS WARREN CO...TO ARND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. HIGH FFG NUMBERS INDICATE THIS WOULD BE
A BENEFICIAL RAIN...RATHER THAN A FLOOD THREAT.
UPPER LOW INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA TO SLOWLY PASS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER WX. LG
SCALE RIDGE OVR THE E COAST SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY
ABV NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE BENEFIT OF A BIT OF
SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS...ENOUGH DRY AIR AND SOME
WINDS WERE IN PLAY TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FROG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT.
ONLY BFD SAW SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND IS CURRENTLY SITTING
WITH VLIFR VIS AND CIGS. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 13/14Z...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
VFR CONDS WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...FLYING CONDS MAY BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...PATCHY AM FOG. OTHERWISE VFR.
WED NIGHT-SATURDAY...EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
604 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN PARK
ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL CRAWL SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS
FORMED EARLY THIS AM ACROSS WESTERN PA. HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE
BOTH INDICATE ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-14Z.
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOC WITH SFC HIGH SHOULD ENSURE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY.
GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM THE L60S OVR
THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE U60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA WILL ENSURE A DRY/TRANQUIL NIGHT. NORTHERN
EDGE OF CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN
PA. CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG/FROST.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOC SFC WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO CRAWL NORTH ALONG
THE E COAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY SPREADING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO
CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...ALL MDL DATA INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS
REMAIN OVR THE AREA...ENSURING ANOTHER DRY DAY. BRIGHTEST SKIES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE N MTNS AND THE MOST CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN UNIFORM HIGH TEMPS IN THE M60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CUT OFF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC MOIST EASTERLY LL JET LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY BRING A CLOUDY AND DAMP END TO THE WORK
WEEK. GFS/GEFS MEAN BOTH INDICATING A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY TRACK
THAN OTHER MDL DATA...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF THAN ECMWF
MEAN/CMC/NAM SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY...BASED ON ALL MDL DATA INDICATING ARRIVAL OF
ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW AND PWATS...FOCUSED ESP ACROSS SE PA.
BLENDED MDL QPF YIELDS 2 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS THU-FRI RANGING FROM
ALMOST NOTHING ACROSS WARREN CO...TO ARND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. HIGH FFG NUMBERS INDICATE THIS WOULD BE
A BENEFICIAL RAIN...RATHER THAN A FLOOD THREAT.
UPPER LOW INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA TO SLOWLY PASS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER WX. LG
SCALE RIDGE OVR THE E COAST SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY
ABV NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE BENEFIT OF A BIT OF
SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN MTNS /KBFD
AND KJST/ OVERNIGHT IN THE CHILLY WNW FLOW.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AS
WELL. THE WET GROUND COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SLACKENING
WINDS COULD SUPPORT FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN FALLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY...JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MAY PERSIST IN SOME
LOCATIONS TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...JUST HINTED AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE TAFS.
CONDS WILL IMPROVE ON TUES...AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUES NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
VFR CONDS WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...FLYING CONDS MAY BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
OUTLOOK...
WED...PATCHY AM FOG. OTHERWISE VFR.
WED NIGHT-SATURDAY...EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...GARTNER/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A LOW TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
FROM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING...TO OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOME VALLEY FOG STILL EXISTS OVER PARTS OF THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
A RAPID BURN-OFF...BUT SOME SPOTS STILL COULD HAVE SOME FOG
THROUGH 1100 AM. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
NORTHWARD. AS IT DOES...THERE WILL BE A INCREASING NE-E FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. FOR
THE MOST PART...THIS WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION REACHING...OR ALMOST REACHING...THIS SAME AREA BY
SUNSET. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN HERE. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER WEST
TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...CLOUDS AND WIND
SPEED/GUSTS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED
TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS HAS PUSHED HIGH
CLOUDS BACK TO THE WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA BORDER. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER OVER MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. BY THE END OF
THE DAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA FOR A WEDGE TO DEVELOP DOWN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AS A
RESULT DEEP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
850 MB WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TODAY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. SREF...LOCAL WRF AND RAP MODELS
HAD BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
AROUND CHARLOTTE COUNTY TO WILKES COUNTY.
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST SO WENT WITH MILDER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. STAYED WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT TUESDAY...
IN A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET STUCK OVER THE
REGION WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE COAST.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND
DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL RESIDE OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE. IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE WEST
(NAM/ECM)...MORE EASTERLY FLOW AND PASSING SHORT WAVES WILL BRING A
GREATER CHANCE AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST (GFS)...DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED INTO
THE AREA ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. PLACED MORE WEIGHT ON THE NAM/ECM
AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WOBBLING THE LOW TO
THE WEST. WITH LOW TEMPORAL/SPATIAL CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT
40 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT WESTWARD.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...BY THEMSELVES...WOULD PRODUCE COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AREAS SEEING LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10F-15F COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE...BUT UNDER THE LOW...MAY ONLY HAVE
TEMPERATURES 3F-6F BELOW NORMAL. WITH CLOUDS INSULATING THE AREA
EACH NIGHT...TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NIGHT AND DAY WILL BE
AROUND 10F OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
CONSENSUS OF MODELS/WPC GUIDANCE SEEMS BEST THIS PERIOD DEALING WITH
UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF OVER VA/CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND DEVELOPMENT LOW PRESSURE ALONG/EAST OF THE NC/VA
COAST. THIS SOLUTION FAVORS KEEPING OUR AREA JUST ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES. LOWERED POPS SOME
BASED ON THE TRENDS WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE AT BEST MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIED FROM MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVC EAST AND NORTH OF ROANOKE TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY
ACROSS OUR SW CWA AROUND BOONE NC/MARION VA/BLUEFIELD WV.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL DURING THE DAY BUT A TAD MILDER AT NIGHT
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...AND NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN 5H HEIGHTS.
BY MONDAY...LOOKS AS IF THE MAIN TROUGH HEADS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST....WHILE THE 5H FLOW FLATTENS SOME WEST
OF US ALLOWING A FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD US MON-TUE NEXT WEEK. AT THE
MOMENT MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD PUSH
INTO SE WV MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE
ARRIVED IN THE AREA BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT COME THROUGH
ON MONDAY. EXPECT SHALLOW RIVER FOG AT KLWB WITH LIFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z/10AM.
CIRRUS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA THERE WILL BE MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
TODAY INTO THURSDAY THE FLORIDA THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL REMAIN
EAST TO NORTHEAST...AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MOIST AS IT TAPS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOOK FOR AN LOWERING CEILING AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN KDAN LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH SO
THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD HELP
REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
709 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
AT 3 AM...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS SET THE STAGE FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE OVER...AS SEEN ALREADY BY VWP FROM
KDMX/KFSD/KOAX/KUEX/KTWX...THE SOURCE REGION FOR TODAYS AIR MASS.
A BREEZY DAY IS ON TAP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT EXISTS FROM CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE QUITE BREEZY TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 850 MB...AND THIS
SHOULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. FURTHER EAST INTO WISCONSIN...LESS OF A
GRADIENT BUT STILL GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN WINDS 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 5 TO 6C
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A 8 TO 10F BUMP
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR READINGS TO TOP OUT FROM 70 TO
75F...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED DRY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN CONDITIONS FOR
THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS SOME ACROSS THE
AREA...LESS MIXING SEEN IN THE SOUNDINGS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
FORECAST TARGET IN THE LONG TERM IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BY FRIDAY...THERE IS ABOVE NORMAL MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN. THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS...AND EJECTS ENERGY OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS BLOCKED
AND THIS FORCES THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...WHILE THE BEST LOW AND MID LEVEL
THERMODYNAMICS LOOK TO RESIDE SOUTH. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SPLIT THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OF THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION...AND
AT THIS TIME...LOW-END CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE
APPROPRIATE.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENCY DIVERGES BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT COULD STALL OVER
OR JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE A SECONDARY PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INCREASES...AND ALLOWS A DEFORMATION BAND
OF RAIN TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. THE 07.12Z/08.00Z
EC AND THE 08.00Z GEM SIMILARLY SHOW THIS SOLUTION...WHILE THE
08.00Z GFS PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER EAST AND LACKS THE SECONDARY
PIECE OF ENERGY...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...FAVORED
THE EC / GEM SOLUTIONS...THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY...ONLY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT ABOVE THE CONSENSUS APPROACH. THIS YIELDED
20-40 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...HIGHEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A 08.00Z
EC TYPE SOLUTION...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
709 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
PRIMARY ISSUE FOR AVIATION TODAY IS WINDS. STRONG GRADIENT SHOULD
RESULT IN GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE...PERHAPS HIGHER AT TIMES
FOR KRST. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS INTO TONIGHT...AND
ALTHOUGH WE MAY HAVE SOME PARTIAL DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP WINDS IN A
10-15 KT RANGE. MORE IMPORTANTLY...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 45-50 KTS ABOVE 2000 FT. WITH THIS RAPID
CHANGE IN SPEED WITH ELEVATION MAINTAINING THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR MENTION IN BOTH TAF FORECASTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
155 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.AVIATION...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIAMI DADE METRO
AREAS THIS MORNING, INCLUDING SOME WATERSPOUTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH FURTHER TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE PULLED VCTS FROM TAFS AT THIS TIME AS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE TROUGH CONSISTS OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TSRA. BUT IT WOULD BE QUICK
MOVING AND ONLY AFFECT AN AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME, IF ANY DO
DEVELOP.
LATER TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH, POSSIBLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. CURRENTLY, THINKING THIS FRONT WILL
BE FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WISE, JUST CAUSING A WIND SHIFT AND LOWER
HUMIDITY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013/
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
IN A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ABOUT WEST PALM BEACH
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TODAY. SO THE PWAT VALUES OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE FALLING FROM AROUND 1.6 INCHES THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 1 INCH BY THIS EVENING...AND FROM AROUND 2
INCHES THIS MORNING TO 1.5 INCHES BY THIS EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. THEREFORE...THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 500 MB TEMP FROM THE MORNING MIA SOUNDING WAS ALSO SHOWING -4
TO -5 CELSIUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY DUE TO THE WARM MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
SO THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY EXCEPT LOW END CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREAS. THE THUNDER
WORDING WILL ALSO BE REMOVED FROM MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT
FOR THE SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
UPDATED...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF JAX AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST, WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT
WITH MUCH DRIER ALOFT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. AS THE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW PWAT DROPPING TO
1.5 INCHES OR LESS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE PWAT IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1.8-1.9 INCHES THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE, THE MEDIUM RANGE AND SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE HUGE DIFFERENCES ON RAINFALL COVERAGE FOR TODAY. THE NAM
SHOWS VIRTUALLY NOTHING WHILE THE HRRR DEPICTS SCATTERED COVERAGE
DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND SPREADING
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
CONSIDERED, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS AND HAVE THUS
DEPICTED THIS IN THE GRIDS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SEEING
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND NO ACTIVITY FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 87 74 87 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 87 77 86 / 20 30 10 10
MIAMI 72 88 77 88 / 20 30 20 10
NAPLES 74 87 74 87 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1250 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
307 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM ARE MAX TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE CENTER OF
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA/OHIO. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING IN A
FEW LOCATIONS TO HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY. ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INFLUENCE
FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AND HAS MANY SITES NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN IL HAVING GONE CALM. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE RADIATED INTO THE MID 40S. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEEING
ACROSS THE BOARD TEMPS MUCH COOLER HAS BEEN THE WINDS ALOFT
HOVERING AT 20KT ARND 2KFT AGL...SHOWN BY THE VWP FROM THE WSR-88D
KLOT. THIS HAS CREATED JUST ENOUGH FRICTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY RADIATING. ALTHOUGH A FEW
TRADITIONAL SPOTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW 40S. IN
ADDITIONALLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM...HOWEVER THIS
WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY AS A WORST CASE SCENARIO THIS MORNING GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. WHERE THE FOG FORMS
EXPECT TEMPS TO RADIATE FURTHER INTO TO ARND 40 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK.
THEN THE SHALLOW FOG SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT BY 14Z.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARND 10KT WILL ALLOW
SFC TEMPS TO STEADILY WARM ABOVE CLIMO TODAY. MANY PLUMES INDICATE
TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S THIS
AFTN...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FALLING ALONG SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO
KANKAKEE LINE. DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE WARM SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY AID IN DEVELOPING A LAKE BREEZE TODAY. EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE
TO BE MORE OF AN IMPACT TO NORTHEAST IL RATHER THAN NORTHWEST IN AS
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MOVEMENT ONSHORE FOR
NORTHWEST IN. THUS AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE MI WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS
EARLY THIS AFTN COOL INTO THE MID 60S BEHIND THE BREEZE.
AFTERNOON MIXING WILL HOLD DEW PTS IN THE MID 40S...WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY
LESS THAN 10KTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADILY COOLING INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S. URBAN HEAT ISLAND WILL KEEP THE CHICAGO METRO AREA IN
THE LOW/MID 50S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MUCH OF THE MEDIUM TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD 500MB RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/QUEBEC. ENSEMBLES HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS LIKELY A
REFLECTION OF THE DIGGING/STRENGTHENING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TOWARDS THE THUR/FRI TIMEFRAME THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND PIVOT EAST...WHICH BEGINS TO SIGNAL THAT THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST. SFC FEATURES
SUPPORT THIS WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINNING TO LOOSEN ITS
INFLUENCE BY FRI...AS LLVL MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE
OZARKS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO PROG A VORT SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE
TROUGH AXIS AND LIFTING NORTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRI...WITH A
CHANNEL OF MOISTURE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS FRI AFTN. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH DRIFTS EAST FRI NIGHT...IT
SHOULD BRING THE EARLIEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WESTERN CWFA. HOWEVER MID-LVL HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED...WHICH COULD
SIGNAL KEEPING FRI NIGHT DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA.
TEMP PLUMES FOR WED/THUR/FRI ALL SIGNAL ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS...MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE TEMPS FRI WARMING INTO THE UPR
70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL
TROUGH.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A MID-LVL RIDGE
PARKED ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WHICH WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL
ROLE IN THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SYSTEM. GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WAS INDICATING THE MID-LVL RIDGE WOULD
WEAKEN...HOWEVER LATEST ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING MAY TAKE PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR SAT WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 70S
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES A SLOWER
EVOLUTION/ARRIVAL TO THE 500MB SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
TAKE PLACE...PUSHING PRECIP INTO SAT NIGHT/SUN. THE CHANNEL OF
MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SUN AFTN/MON WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK
INTO THE 60S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD SHIFT WIND
DIRECTLY FROM SLY TO SELY OR ELY.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...WITH THE ONLY
CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO BE SOME SCT CI. WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY
CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NERN IL/NRN IN...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY TO JUST EAST OF SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BETWEEN LAND AND LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY LEAD TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...TURNING
WINDS NEAR THE LAKE TO SELY OR ESELY...BUT WINDS THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE
FROM REACHING ORD/MDW...LET ALONE ANY OF THE OTHER TERMINALS...SO
EXPECT THAT PREVAILING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF
SOUTH. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN WOULD BE FOR SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME ISOLATED...LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VSBY RESTRICTIONS...THOUGH THERE WOULD BE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME GROUND FOG TO IMPACT DPA.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE FORMATION...LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
IT WILL REACH ORD/MDW.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO VISBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT ORD/MDW TONIGHT.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE A WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDS
BACK WEST INTO THE LAKES REGION INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE EAST TO ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING LOW
AND THE STRENGTHENING HIGH TO THE EAST WILL STEADILY TIGHTEN TODAY
INTO TONIGHT PRODUCING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. SPEEDS LIKELY
TO INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE NORTH HALF LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS CURRENT TRACK WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PERHAPS
INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1206 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 935 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2013
High pressure near the Ohio/Pennsylvania border ridges southwest
all the way to southeast Oklahoma, and will keep our weather quiet
today. Dry air aloft should lead to mainly clear skies through the
day, although the RAP and NAM do hint at a bit of diurnal cumulus
south of a St Louis to Champaign line for a few hours.
Have sent some zone/grid updates mainly to remove the earlier fog
mention and update the dew point grids. Also did some minor hourly
temperature updates, but overall highs still look reasonable.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1205 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2013
Few clouds expected the next 24 hours, although NAM/RAP models
continue to hint at a bit of diurnal development around 4000 feet
this afternoon near KCMI/KDEC southward. Southerly winds will
gradually trend more toward the southeast overnight.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 136 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Ridge of high pressure currently centered over the Ohio River
Valley will dominate the weather across central Illinois over the
next several days. With calm winds beneath the ridge axis and
06z/1am temp/dewpoint spreads of only 1 to 2 degrees, think
shallow ground fog will develop across the E/SE KILX CWA over the
next couple of hours. HRRR suggests this as well, with fog
generally forming along and southeast of a Danville to Shelbyville
line. Will include patchy fog across this area early this morning
accordingly. Once fog dissipates, sunny skies can be expected
across the board for the remainder of the day. Full sunshine
working on dry airmass will boost temperatures several degrees
warmer than yesterday, with afternoon highs topping out in the
middle to upper 70s.
Surface ridge axis will begin to shift northward on Wednesday,
allowing light southerly winds to back to a more east-southeast
direction. This will temporarily curtail the warming trend, with
highs perhaps a degree or two cooler than today in the middle 70s.
With high pressure centered over the Great Lakes, both the NAM and
GFS suggest some moisture associated with persistent upper low
over the SE CONUS may advect northwestward around the periphery of
the high into central Illinois on Thursday. Forecast soundings
remain dry and forcing is completely absent, so only noticeable
change in the weather will be a few more clouds. Under partly to
mostly sunny skies, highs will once again reach the middle to
upper 70s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Warmest day of the forecast period will be Friday, when southerly
winds allow highs to approach the 80-degree mark. Meanwhile,
closed upper low over the Desert Southwest will begin lifting
northeastward into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, dragging a
cold front into Illinois over the weekend. Latest run of the GFS
continues to be rather progressive with the approaching front,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area
Saturday/Saturday night, then quickly departing on Sunday. 12z
ECMWF remains slower, with precip holding off until Saturday night
into Sunday. Given developing blocking pattern due to upper low
meandering northward into the Mid-Atlantic states later this week,
would tend to side with the slower ECMWF solution. As a result,
will keep chance POPs confined to the western half of the KILX CWA
during the day Saturday, with rain chances spreading across the
entire area Saturday night. Will hold on to chance POPs in the
east on Sunday as well, as front will be slow to depart. After
that, a return to dry weather with seasonable temps in the upper
60s and lower 70s can be expected by Monday.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1256 PM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
AN UPDATE WAS JUST COMPLETED TO ADJUST WINDS...TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND
CONSSHORT SUGGESTS WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS. WINDS AT 1 KM UP ARE AROUND 35-45 KTS AND
WITH FULL AFTERNOON MIXING...SOME GUSTS NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION TO TWEAKING THE GRIDS...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE CHEYENNE COUNTY KANSAS AND KIT CARSON COUNTY
DUE TO THE LOWER HUMIDITIES AND HIGHER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MIXING IS LIMITED WITH CIRRUS SPREADING OVER BUT IT
SEEMS THE CIRRUS IS NOT TOO DENSE SO FULL MIXING SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...ESPECIALLY WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LACK
OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO CHANGED PRECIPITATION TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST FA ARE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 20 TO 25KTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH GUSTS UNDER ADVISORY
AS WELL. THIS DECISION WAS ALSO BASED ON CONSENSUS FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
H925-850 LAYER MEAN WINDS RANGE FROM 27 TO 36 KTS THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H7 WINDS ARE FROM 45-48KTS. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS 35
KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS IS PERIODS 5
AND 6 IT IS TOO EARLY FOR A WIND HIGHLIGHT. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS.
WINDS AND RH FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON LOOK ON TRACK
WITH 25KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER FROM NAM BUFKIT. MIN RH VALUES FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT SO PLAN TO CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS WEDNESDAY, THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
SHOWS 15 TO 20KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT RH
VALUES ARE MARGINAL EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER
80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND LOWER 80S IN THE EAST. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID
50S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXCELLENT...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND SBCAPE WILL BE
LACKING FOR A MORE PRONOUNCED SEVERE EVENT. NONETHELESS...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT APPEARING TO BE WIND/BLOWING DUST AS STORMS WILL RACE
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 50 MPH. AREA WILL GET DRY SLOTTED BY 06Z WITH
STORMS PULLING OUT OF THE AREA AFTERWARDS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
A SECONDARY VORT LOBE WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS...BUT
EVEN THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS NO MUCAPE AND ONLY SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT WORST IN A COOLER AIR MASS. THERE WILL BE
A REPRIEVE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND IT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. ACCORDING TO MODEL
TIME/HEIGHT PROJECTIONS...THE CIRRUS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. CIRRUS HAS LIMITED WINDS FROM BECOMING GUSTY THIS
MORNING BUT MODELS AND LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...DELAYED THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS FOR KGLD. KMCK LOOKS ON RELATIVELY ON TRACK. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE LEE TROUGH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
WINDS AT KMCK WILL BACK TO THE EAST WHILE WINDS AT KGLD WILL VEER
TO THE WEST AS THE LEE TROUGH MOVES IN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1119 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
AN UPDATE WAS JUST COMPLETED TO ADJUST WINDS...TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND
CONSSHORT SUGGESTS WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS. WINDS AT 1 KM UP ARE AROUND 35-45 KTS AND
WITH FULL AFTERNOON MIXING...SOME GUSTS NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION TO TWEAKING THE GRIDS...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE CHEYENNE COUNTY KANSAS AND KIT CARSON COUNTY
DUE TO THE LOWER HUMIDITIES AND HIGHER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MIXING IS LIMITED WITH CIRRUS SPREADING OVER BUT IT
SEEMS THE CIRRUS IS NOT TOO DENSE SO FULL MIXING SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...ESPECIALLY WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LACK
OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO CHANGED PRECIPITATION TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST FA ARE JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 20 TO 25KTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH GUSTS UNDER ADVISORY
AS WELL. THIS DECISION WAS ALSO BASED ON CONSENSUS FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
H925-850 LAYER MEAN WINDS RANGE FROM 27 TO 36 KTS THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. H7 WINDS ARE FROM 45-48KTS. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS 35
KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS IS PERIODS 5
AND 6 IT IS TOO EARLY FOR A WIND HIGHLIGHT. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS.
WINDS AND RH FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON LOOK ON TRACK
WITH 25KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER FROM NAM BUFKIT. MIN RH VALUES FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT SO PLAN TO CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS WEDNESDAY, THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
SHOWS 15 TO 20KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT RH
VALUES ARE MARGINAL EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER
80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND LOWER 80S IN THE EAST. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID
50S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
A NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
ON FRIDAY...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL JET SPEEDS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR STRONGER
WINDS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH THE NEW TROUGH
PATTERN.
STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET ACTIVITY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH COULD KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. WINDS COULD BE STRONG WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE COOL AIR MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S FOR
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT TUE OCT 8 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. ACCORDING TO MODEL
TIME/HEIGHT PROJECTIONS...THE CIRRUS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. CIRRUS HAS LIMITED WINDS FROM BECOMING GUSTY THIS
MORNING BUT MODELS AND LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...DELAYED THE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS FOR KGLD. KMCK LOOKS ON RELATIVELY ON TRACK. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE LEE TROUGH LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
WINDS AT KMCK WILL BACK TO THE EAST WHILE WINDS AT KGLD WILL VEER
TO THE WEST AS THE LEE TROUGH MOVES IN AFTER 06Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
A BROAD AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING SWEPT IN AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE THESE
CLOUDS THE BEST AND WAS THE BASIS FOR THE SKY FORECAST.
THE RAP MODEL SHOWS A THERMAL RIDGE WITH H700 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT OVER THE SNOW FIELD
ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S
AND 60S. THE NAM SHOWS MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 800 MB SOUTH AND 850
MB NORTH BUT THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLBF LAST NIGHT SHOWED A
MIXING TO 750 MB. THIS WAS ABOUT 50 MB HIGHER THAN THE NAM WAS
FORECASTING. SO THE FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE WARMER MET
GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED THE BEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY...WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
ERN COLO. THIS WILL HELP PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT PART WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
SFC TROF AND STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM ROUGHLY KSNY TO KVTN.
THE FRONT WILL HELP POOL MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS TONIGHT SHOULD
RISE INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE
NAM MODEL THEN SHOWS A BANK OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB. THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG...IF
IT DEVELOPS...SHOULD MIX OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE
MODEL.
LASTLY...THE NAM AND RAP MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY BELT OF 30
TO 45 KT H850 MB WINDS TODAY ANGLED FROM KMCK TO KONL. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE ERN 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 70S...COOLER ACROSS THE NW...60S. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL RESIDE ACROSS DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH SW
FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
BY THURSDAY THE AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW FROM YESTERDAY. THE NAM AND THE GEM HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY
BIAS...HOWEVER AT THE SFC THE LOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...ACROSS NE
COLORADO. THE SFC LOW WILL RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH PWATS REACHING
AROUND 1 INCH...WHICH IS 2SD FOR OCTOBER. SPEED SHEAR IS GREAT
THROUGH THE COLUMN...WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR GOOD ONLY IN THE
LOWEST LEVEL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO FIRE AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
MID AFTERNOON THURS TO THURS EVENING. SOME CONCERN WITH DEW PTS
ONLY IN THE 50S...HOWEVER FOR OCTOBER...SHOULD BE GOOD FOR SOME
SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS. ALTHOUGH WITH THE GOOD
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVEL NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT...WILL NEED TO MONITOR A POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO THREAT.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE STORMS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STORM MOTION TO THE NE AROUND 40 MPH. LOW POPS START THURSDAY 18Z
TO 21Z AND INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS STORMS COVERAGE
LIKELY INCREASES. OVERNIGHT THE LOW WILL LIFT NE AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR WRAP AROUND AND DRY SLOT...AS BOTH TO IMPACT THE AREA.
FRIDAY COOLER TEMPS AS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.
NO ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY COOL
INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE MAIN LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO
CANADA...WHILE A SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. BY SATURDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPS...FROM RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...T/TD SPREAD
SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY SOME PASSING CLOUDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ZONAL FLOW WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. THEN ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND SLOWER...MONDAY INTO TUES.
LOW POPS FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TODAY...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST SLIGHTLY INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS. LOCATIONS TO THE EAST WILL
SEE BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHILE PLACES TO THE WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD EXPECT WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTH. CLOUD COVER
WILL PRIMARILY BE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 25K FEET.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE BEING BROUGHT INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE VERY SHALLOW SO
CURRENTLY DON/T THINK STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...BUT WINDS MAY STAY
HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG. CURRENTLY BELIEVE THAT AREAS WITH
HIGHEST THREAT FOR FOG WOULD BE OVER THE AREAS WITH SNOWPACK...AS
MELTING IS EXPECTED TODAY TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. BUT AGAIN...WITH WINDS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME CALM IN THESE
AREAS...NOT THINKING DENSE FOG IS A HIGH THREAT RIGHT NOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR COMING FORECASTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
138 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A LOW TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
FROM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING...TO OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE ONLY ITEM OF
FOCUS IS A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THIS IN TURN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE ABOUT TWO OR THREE
DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY RICHLANDS TO BLUEFIELD WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. HAVE RAISED EXPECTED HIGHS BY
ROUGHLY TWO TO THREE DEGREES IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOME VALLEY FOG STILL EXISTS OVER PARTS OF THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
A RAPID BURN-OFF...BUT SOME SPOTS STILL COULD HAVE SOME FOG
THROUGH 1100 AM. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
NORTHWARD. AS IT DOES...THERE WILL BE A INCREASING NE-E FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. FOR
THE MOST PART...THIS WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION REACHING...OR ALMOST REACHING...THIS SAME AREA BY
SUNSET. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN HERE. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER WEST
TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...CLOUDS AND WIND
SPEED/GUSTS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED
TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS HAS PUSHED HIGH
CLOUDS BACK TO THE WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA BORDER. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER OVER MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. BY THE END OF
THE DAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA FOR A WEDGE TO DEVELOP DOWN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AS A
RESULT DEEP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
850 MB WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TODAY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. SREF...LOCAL WRF AND RAP MODELS
HAD BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
AROUND CHARLOTTE COUNTY TO WILKES COUNTY.
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST SO WENT WITH MILDER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. STAYED WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT TUESDAY...
IN A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET STUCK OVER THE
REGION WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE COAST.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND
DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL RESIDE OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE. IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE WEST
(NAM/ECM)...MORE EASTERLY FLOW AND PASSING SHORT WAVES WILL BRING A
GREATER CHANCE AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST (GFS)...DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED INTO
THE AREA ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. PLACED MORE WEIGHT ON THE NAM/ECM
AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WOBBLING THE LOW TO
THE WEST. WITH LOW TEMPORAL/SPATIAL CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT
40 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT WESTWARD.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...BY THEMSELVES...WOULD PRODUCE COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AREAS SEEING LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10F-15F COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE...BUT UNDER THE LOW...MAY ONLY HAVE
TEMPERATURES 3F-6F BELOW NORMAL. WITH CLOUDS INSULATING THE AREA
EACH NIGHT...TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NIGHT AND DAY WILL BE
AROUND 10F OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
CONSENSUS OF MODELS/WPC GUIDANCE SEEMS BEST THIS PERIOD DEALING WITH
UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF OVER VA/CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND DEVELOPMENT LOW PRESSURE ALONG/EAST OF THE NC/VA
COAST. THIS SOLUTION FAVORS KEEPING OUR AREA JUST ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES. LOWERED POPS SOME
BASED ON THE TRENDS WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE AT BEST MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIED FROM MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVC EAST AND NORTH OF ROANOKE TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY
ACROSS OUR SW CWA AROUND BOONE NC/MARION VA/BLUEFIELD WV.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL DURING THE DAY BUT A TAD MILDER AT NIGHT
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...AND NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN 5H HEIGHTS.
BY MONDAY...LOOKS AS IF THE MAIN TROUGH HEADS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST....WHILE THE 5H FLOW FLATTENS SOME WEST
OF US ALLOWING A FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD US MON-TUE NEXT WEEK. AT THE
MOMENT MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD PUSH
INTO SE WV MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ALL TAF LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING. FOG
SHOULD ONLY AFFECT LWB AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FOG ERODING BY 13Z.
ALL OTHER TAF LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING.
COASTAL LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE
TAF PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY...SPECIFICALLY AT LYH AND DAN. EXPECT THAT SOME
RAIN WILL BE IN THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT LEFT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
OUT OF THE TAF LOCATIONS. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT CEILINGS WILL
LOWER AT THE EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT DAN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT ROA/LYH AS WELL.
BCB/LWB/BLF SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE TAF DISCUSSION THURSDAY
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN EASTERLY BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE LOW SHOULD SHIFT ENOUGH TO THE NORTH BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO RETURN OUR FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST THUS REDUCING
THE CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1247 PM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A LOW TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
FROM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING...TO OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE ONLY ITEM OF
FOCUS IS A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THIS IN TURN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE ABOUT TWO OR THREE
DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO...WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY RICHLANDS TO BLUEFIELD WILL BENEFIT FROM AN
EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. HAVE RAISED EXPECTED HIGHS BY
ROUGHLY TWO TO THREE DEGREES IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
AS OF 945 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOME VALLEY FOG STILL EXISTS OVER PARTS OF THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
A RAPID BURN-OFF...BUT SOME SPOTS STILL COULD HAVE SOME FOG
THROUGH 1100 AM. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
NORTHWARD. AS IT DOES...THERE WILL BE A INCREASING NE-E FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. FOR
THE MOST PART...THIS WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION REACHING...OR ALMOST REACHING...THIS SAME AREA BY
SUNSET. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN HERE. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER WEST
TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...CLOUDS AND WIND
SPEED/GUSTS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED
TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS HAS PUSHED HIGH
CLOUDS BACK TO THE WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA BORDER. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER OVER MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. BY THE END OF
THE DAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA FOR A WEDGE TO DEVELOP DOWN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AS A
RESULT DEEP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
850 MB WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TODAY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. SREF...LOCAL WRF AND RAP MODELS
HAD BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
AROUND CHARLOTTE COUNTY TO WILKES COUNTY.
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE LITTLE TO NO SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST SO WENT WITH MILDER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. STAYED WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM EDT TUESDAY...
IN A BLOCKING PATTERN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET STUCK OVER THE
REGION WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE COAST.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND
DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL RESIDE OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE. IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TO THE WEST
(NAM/ECM)...MORE EASTERLY FLOW AND PASSING SHORT WAVES WILL BRING A
GREATER CHANCE AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST (GFS)...DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED INTO
THE AREA ON NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW. PLACED MORE WEIGHT ON THE NAM/ECM
AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WOBBLING THE LOW TO
THE WEST. WITH LOW TEMPORAL/SPATIAL CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AT
40 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT WESTWARD.
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...BY THEMSELVES...WOULD PRODUCE COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AREAS SEEING LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10F-15F COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE...BUT UNDER THE LOW...MAY ONLY HAVE
TEMPERATURES 3F-6F BELOW NORMAL. WITH CLOUDS INSULATING THE AREA
EACH NIGHT...TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NIGHT AND DAY WILL BE
AROUND 10F OR LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
CONSENSUS OF MODELS/WPC GUIDANCE SEEMS BEST THIS PERIOD DEALING WITH
UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF OVER VA/CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND DEVELOPMENT LOW PRESSURE ALONG/EAST OF THE NC/VA
COAST. THIS SOLUTION FAVORS KEEPING OUR AREA JUST ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES. LOWERED POPS SOME
BASED ON THE TRENDS WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE AT BEST MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIED FROM MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVC EAST AND NORTH OF ROANOKE TO MORE SUN DURING THE DAY
ACROSS OUR SW CWA AROUND BOONE NC/MARION VA/BLUEFIELD WV.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL DURING THE DAY BUT A TAD MILDER AT NIGHT
GIVEN CLOUD COVER...AND NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN 5H HEIGHTS.
BY MONDAY...LOOKS AS IF THE MAIN TROUGH HEADS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST....WHILE THE 5H FLOW FLATTENS SOME WEST
OF US ALLOWING A FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD US MON-TUE NEXT WEEK. AT THE
MOMENT MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD PUSH
INTO SE WV MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE
ARRIVED IN THE AREA BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT COME THROUGH
ON MONDAY. EXPECT SHALLOW RIVER FOG AT KLWB WITH LIFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH 14Z/10AM.
CIRRUS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA THERE WILL BE MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
TODAY INTO THURSDAY THE FLORIDA THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL REMAIN
EAST TO NORTHEAST...AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MOIST AS IT TAPS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOOK FOR AN LOWERING CEILING AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN KDAN LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH SO
THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD HELP
REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1248 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
AT 3 AM...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS SET THE STAGE FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE OVER...AS SEEN ALREADY BY VWP FROM
KDMX/KFSD/KOAX/KUEX/KTWX...THE SOURCE REGION FOR TODAYS AIR MASS.
A BREEZY DAY IS ON TAP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT EXISTS FROM CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE QUITE BREEZY TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 850 MB...AND THIS
SHOULD HELP TO MIX DOWN SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. FURTHER EAST INTO WISCONSIN...LESS OF A
GRADIENT BUT STILL GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN WINDS 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 5 TO 6C
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A 8 TO 10F BUMP
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR READINGS TO TOP OUT FROM 70 TO
75F...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED DRY AND PLEASANT AUTUMN CONDITIONS FOR
THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS SOME ACROSS THE
AREA...LESS MIXING SEEN IN THE SOUNDINGS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
FORECAST TARGET IN THE LONG TERM IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BY FRIDAY...THERE IS ABOVE NORMAL MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN. THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS...AND EJECTS ENERGY OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS BLOCKED
AND THIS FORCES THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...WHILE THE BEST LOW AND MID LEVEL
THERMODYNAMICS LOOK TO RESIDE SOUTH. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SPLIT THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OF THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION...AND
AT THIS TIME...LOW-END CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE
APPROPRIATE.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENCY DIVERGES BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT COULD STALL OVER
OR JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE A SECONDARY PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INCREASES...AND ALLOWS A DEFORMATION BAND
OF RAIN TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. THE 07.12Z/08.00Z
EC AND THE 08.00Z GEM SIMILARLY SHOW THIS SOLUTION...WHILE THE
08.00Z GFS PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER EAST AND LACKS THE SECONDARY
PIECE OF ENERGY...MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...FAVORED
THE EC / GEM SOLUTIONS...THOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY...ONLY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT ABOVE THE CONSENSUS APPROACH. THIS YIELDED
20-40 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...HIGHEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A 08.00Z
EC TYPE SOLUTION...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE
RAISED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE OCT 8 2013
AS DIURNAL MIXING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE SOUTH WINDS
TO GUST INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WIND GUSTS
WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF BETWEEN 08.23Z AND 09.00Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LOWEST 1000 TO 1500 FEET AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
CLIMBS INTO THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. THIS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 09.15Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...BOYNE