Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/30/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 508 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY REVOLVE AROUND TIMING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT SPANS FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SOUTH INTO
EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP GENERALLY OCCURRING ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED
MAINLY TO MISSOURI...BUT HAS REALLY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIALLY A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THOUGH...AND ACCAS OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...SO WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THOUGH MAINLY EXPECT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
MODERATE SHOWERS. WHILE THERMODYNAMICALLY UNIMPRESSIVE...DYNAMIC
FORCING THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
ENTIRE CWA SEEING WETTING RAINS THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED NEGATIVELY TILTED VORT MAX LIFTING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT.
PWATS COULD BE PUSHING 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING LIES NORTH OF
THE AREA...STILL EXPECT DECENT HEIGHT FALLS TO SPREAD OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS EVENING. NAM/GFS INDICATE COUPLED
JET WITH THE BEST AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
THIS EVENING. THESE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A DEEP VERTICAL RESPONSE...WITH
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
THE MAIN JET STREAM SETTING UP FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER WITH PRECIP CHANCES
STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT SUNDAY. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SUNDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE FRONT
SUNDAY...LIKELY IN THE MID 60S...BUT TEMPERATURES FARTHER INLAND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
EFFECTIVELY RADIATE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID
40S OUTSIDE OF URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF CHICAGO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
STAY PROPPED INTO THE MID 50S. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIP INTO THE 30S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEW POINTS MAY BE
TOO DRY FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP. WITH RECENT RAINFALL
THOUGH...NOT CONFIDENT THAT MODELS ARE HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
VERY WELL. WILL INCLUDE MENTION FOR PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE THE METRO
AREA.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S MONDAY...AND 80S POSSIBLE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. GFS/EMCWF BOTH
SHOW THERMAL RIDGE LEANING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE 16-18C RANGE...THOUGH IF RECENT
MODEL PERFORMANCE IS ANY INDICATOR...THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM.
EVEN TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT
ON THE COOL SIDE SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMER FORECAST OF LOW TO MID
80S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH TIMING/STRENGTH INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. TIMING IS THE MAIN ISSUE. THE GFS IS FASTEST...FOLLOWED
BY THE ECMWF AND THEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. A SPAGHETTI PLOT OF
GEFS MEMBERS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE
MOST PROGRESSIVE MEMBER SHOWING THE TROUGH AXIS NEARING THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE SLOWEST MEMBERS HAVE A
DEEPER CLOSED LOW STILL OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ALL THIS BOILS
DOWN TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED...THUS MAINTAINED A
BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...UNTIL DETAILS
START TO BECOME MORE CLEAR.

DEUBELBEISS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* SSW WINDS GUSTING 35-18 KT AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
  GUSTS DIMINISHING TOWARD/AFTER 00Z.

* LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE AROUND 00Z...WITH STEADIER RAIN
  EXPECTED TOWARD/AFTER 03Z...WITH REDUCED VSBY. SHRA COVERAGE
  SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 05Z.

* COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND 05Z SHIFTING WINDS TO NW.

* MVFR CIGS ARRIVING MID EVENING THEN EXIT OVERNIGHT.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...

HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS TO BETTER TIME RAIN
CHANCES AND WIND GUSTS. DIMINISHING BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO
MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH IS JUST NOW APPROACHING THE THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE QUAD
CITIES. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EARLY
THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AS BETTER FORCING
ARRIVES COMBINING WITH THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO
THE AREA. THIS RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. HAVE PUSHED BACK PERIOD OF BETTER ORGANIZED PRECIP AND
LOWER VSBY/CIG MENTION IN THE TAFS BY A FEW HOURS TO LINE UP WITH
THIS EXPECTATION. RFD MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LESS RAIN
THIS EVENING AS THE BULK OF NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY BE JUST TO THEIR
SOUTH AND EAST...SO FURTHER TAF ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND FORCING BEHIND IT MAY ALLOW SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR 1-2 HOURS AFTER IT PASSES...WITH
LOWER END MVFR CIGS ALSO LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH
THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER THAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED SO EXPECT THAT
SOME GUSTINESS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE SHOULD DECREASE
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT.

MDB

FROM 18Z...

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTN...PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS AFTN A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN EASTERN IOWA STRETCHING SOUTH
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BRING THIS
BNDRY EAST TOWARDS RFD ARND 02-04Z...THEN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
TO 25KT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ONCE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER ARRIVES
LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY ARND 10-12KT. THEN
POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BTWN
07-10Z. WITH THE STEADIER PRECIP CIGS MAY DIP TO BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR CONDS ARND 2500FT AGL. WITH THE QUICK SHIFT IN WINDS
BEHIND THE BNDRY...CIGS SHUD QUICKLY THIN AND LIFT ALONG WITH THE
DRIER AIR THAT WILL PUSH OVERHEAD.

WINDS TURN NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST ARND DAYBREAK SUN...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY HOVERING ARND 09-12KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF SUN.

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH SUNSET.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING BY ABOUT 00Z
  ...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN ARRIVING MID
  EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
  SHOWERS LINGERING AFTER 05/06Z.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS STARTING MID
  EVENING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
220 PM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LOW IS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.  WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE LAKE TODAY...BUT ARE FINALLY STARTING TO PICK UP.  WILL
KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AND END IT AT 7PM TONIGHT AS
PLANNED.  THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE
LOW REACHES HUDSON BAY TOMORROW.  GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING WINDS
WILL PICK UP TO 30KT THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTH HALF TO THE LAKE.
IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS LIE
JUST 200 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS GOING
THROUGH 03Z AND HIGHER VESSELS WILL PROBABLY ENCOUNTER MORE THAN
JUST OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS.

THE LOWS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING WITH NW
WINDS 15-20 KT BEHIND IT.  A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE
TOMORROW AND WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH.   THE HIGH PUSHES EAST WITH
SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER
LOW PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE.  THEREFORE...HAVE 30KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  WINDS TURN WEST AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST AND ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE LAKE.

LATE NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS INTERESTING WITH A LARGE LOW CROSSING THE
PLAINS AND PASSING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  MODEL TIMING IS NOT
CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AND MODEL RUNS. THAT BEING SAID
GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING STRONG SOUTH WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD
OF THE LOW.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 309 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY REVOLVE AROUND TIMING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT SPANS FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SOUTH INTO
EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP GENERALLY OCCURRING ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED
MAINLY TO MISSOURI...BUT HAS REALLY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIALLY A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THOUGH...AND ACCAS OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...SO WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THOUGH MAINLY EXPECT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
MODERATE SHOWERS. WHILE THERMODYNAMICALLY UNIMPRESSIVE...DYNAMIC
FORCING THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
ENTIRE CWA SEEING WETTING RAINS THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED NEGATIVELY TILTED VORT MAX LIFTING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT.
PWATS COULD BE PUSHING 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING LIES NORTH OF
THE AREA...STILL EXPECT DECENT HEIGHT FALLS TO SPREAD OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS EVENING. NAM/GFS INDICATE COUPLED
JET WITH THE BEST AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
THIS EVENING. THESE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A DEEP VERTICAL RESPONSE...WITH
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
THE MAIN JET STREAM SETTING UP FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER WITH PRECIP CHANCES
STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT SUNDAY. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SUNDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE FRONT
SUNDAY...LIKELY IN THE MID 60S...BUT TEMPERATURES FARTHER INLAND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
EFFECTIVELY RADIATE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID
40S OUTSIDE OF URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF CHICAGO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
STAY PROPPED INTO THE MID 50S. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIP INTO THE 30S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEW POINTS MAY BE
TOO DRY FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP. WITH RECENT RAINFALL
THOUGH...NOT CONFIDENT THAT MODELS ARE HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
VERY WELL. WILL INCLUDE MENTION FOR PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE THE METRO
AREA.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S MONDAY...AND 80S POSSIBLE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. GFS/EMCWF BOTH
SHOW THERMAL RIDGE LEANING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE 16-18C RANGE...THOUGH IF RECENT
MODEL PERFORMANCE IS ANY INDICATOR...THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM.
EVEN TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT
ON THE COOL SIDE SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMER FORECAST OF LOW TO MID
80S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH TIMING/STRENGTH INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. TIMING IS THE MAIN ISSUE. THE GFS IS FASTEST...FOLLOWED
BY THE ECMWF AND THEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. A SPAGHETTI PLOT OF
GEFS MEMBERS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE
MOST PROGRESSIVE MEMBER SHOWING THE TROUGH AXIS NEARING THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE SLOWEST MEMBERS HAVE A
DEEPER CLOSED LOW STILL OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ALL THIS BOILS
DOWN TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED...THUS MANINTAINED A
BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...UNTIL DETAILS
START TO BECOME MORE CLEAR.

DEUBELBEISS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 15-18KT WITH GUSTS TO 28KT
  THRU LATE THIS AFTN. SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE WITH THICKER
  CLOUD COVER ARRIVING AFT 23Z.

* PRECIP ARRIVES ARND 0-2Z WITH THE MORE STEADY RAIN AND POSSIBLY
  A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARND 2-4Z. THEN ALL PRECIP SHUD COME TO AN
  END ARND 6Z. PSBL PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH STEADIER PRECIP.

* FRONTAL PASSAGE ARND 6Z WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING NORTHWEST
  AND SPEEDS DECREASING TO ARND 7-10KT.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTN...PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS AFTN A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN EASTERN IOWA STRETCHING SOUTH
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BRING THIS
BNDRY EAST TOWARDS RFD ARND 02-04Z...THEN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
TO 25KT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ONCE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER ARRIVES
LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY ARND 10-12KT. THEN
POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BTWN
07-10Z. WITH THE STEADIER PRECIP CIGS MAY DIP TO BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR CONDS ARND 2500FT AGL. WITH THE QUICK SHIFT IN WINDS
BEHIND THE BNDRY...CIGS SHUD QUICKLY THIN AND LIFT ALONG WITH THE
DRIER AIR THAT WILL PUSH OVERHEAD.

WINDS TURN NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST ARND DAYBREAK SUN...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY HOVERING ARND 09-12KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF SUN.

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS THRU 23Z...THEN
  MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEEDS.

* MEDIUM CONFIDECE IN PRECISE TIME OF WIND SHIFT AND SPEEDS
  THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ARRIVING AT ORD/MDW. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
  IN PRECISE TIME OF PRECIP ARRIVAL AND DURATION.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ENDING BY 08Z SUN.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS AND LGT N/NE WINDS DEVELOPING BY
  12Z SUN.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
220 PM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LOW IS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.  WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE LAKE TODAY...BUT ARE FINALLY STARTING TO PICK UP.  WILL
KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AND END IT AT 7PM TONIGHT AS
PLANNED.  THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE
LOW REACHES HUDSON BAY TOMORROW.  GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING WINDS
WILL PICK UP TO 30KT THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTH HALF TO THE LAKE.
IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS LIE
JUST 200 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS GOING
THROUGH 03Z AND HIGHER VESSELS WILL PROBABLY ENCOUNTER MORE THAN
JUST OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS.

THE LOWS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING WITH NW
WINDS 15-20 KT BEHIND IT.  A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE
TOMORROW AND WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH.   THE HIGH PUSHES EAST WITH
SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER
LOW PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE.  THEREFORE...HAVE 30KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  WINDS TURN WEST AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST AND ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE LAKE.

LATE NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS INTERESTING WITH A LARGE LOW CROSSING THE
PLAINS AND PASSING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  MODEL TIMING IS NOT
CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AND MODEL RUNS. THAT BEING SAID
GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING STRONG SOUTH WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD
OF THE LOW.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 258 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...
254 PM CDT

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY REVOLVE AROUND TIMING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT SPANS FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SOUTH INTO
EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP GENERALLY OCCURRING ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED
MAINLY TO MISSOURI...BUT HAS REALLY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIALLY A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THOUGH...AND ACCAS OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...SO WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THOUGH MAINLY EXPECT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
MODERATE SHOWERS. WHILE THERMODYNAMICALLY UNIMPRESSIVE...DYNAMIC
FORCING THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
ENTIRE CWA SEEING WETTING RAINS THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED NEGATIVELY TILTED VORT MAX LIFTING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT.
PWATS COULD BE PUSHING 2 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING LIES NORTH OF
THE AREA...STILL EXPECT DECENT HEIGHT FALLS TO SPREAD OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS EVENING. NAM/GFS INDICATE COUPLED
JET WITH THE BEST AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
THIS EVENING. THESE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A DEEP VERTICAL RESPONSE...WITH
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
THE MAIN JET STREAM SETTING UP FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER WITH PRECIP CHANCES
STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT SUNDAY. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
SUNDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE FRONT
SUNDAY...LIKELY IN THE MID 60S...BUT TEMPERATURES FARTHER INLAND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
EFFECTIVELY RADIATE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID
40S OUTSIDE OF URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF CHICAGO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
STAY PROPPED INTO THE MID 50S. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIP INTO THE 30S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEW POINTS MAY BE
TOO DRY FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP. WITH RECENT RAINFALL
THOUGH...NOT CONFIDENT THAT MODELS ARE HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
VERY WELL. WILL INCLUDE MENTION FOR PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE THE METRO
AREA.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S MONDAY...AND 80S POSSIBLE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. GFS/EMCWF BOTH
SHOW THERMAL RIDGE LEANING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE 16-18C RANGE...THOUGH IF RECENT
MODEL PERFORMANCE IS ANY INDICATOR...THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM.
EVEN TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT
ON THE COOL SIDE SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMER FORECAST OF LOW TO MID
80S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH TIMING/STRENGTH INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. TIMING IS THE MAIN ISSUE. THE GFS IS FASTEST...FOLLOWED
BY THE ECMWF AND THEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. A SPAGHETTI PLOT OF
GEFS MEMBERS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE
MOST PROGRESSIVE MEMBER SHOWING THE TROUGH AXIS NEARING THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE SLOWEST MEMBERS HAVE A
DEEPER CLOSED LOW STILL OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ALL THIS BOILS
DOWN TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED...THUS MANINTAINED A
BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...UNTIL DETAILS
START TO BECOME MORE CLEAR.

DEUBELBEISS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* SOUTH WINDS INCREASING WITH SPEEDS ARND 15-18KT AND GUSTS UP TO
  25KT THRU LATE THIS AFTN. SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE WITH
  THICKER CLOUD COVER ARRIVING AFT 23Z.

* PRECIP ARRIVES ARND 3Z WITH THE MORE STEADY RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
  RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARND 4-6Z. THEN ALL PRECIP SHUD COME TO AN END
  ARND 8-9Z. PSBL PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH STEADIER PRECIP.

* FRONTAL PASSAGE ARND 6-9Z WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING NORTHWEST
  AND SPEEDS DECREASING TO ARND 7-10KT.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTN...PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS AFTN A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN EASTERN IOWA STRETCHING SOUTH
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BRING THIS
BNDRY EAST TOWARDS RFD ARND 02-04Z...THEN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
TO 25KT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ONCE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER ARRIVES
LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY ARND 10-12KT. THEN
POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BTWN
07-10Z. WITH THE STEADIER PRECIP CIGS MAY DIP TO BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR CONDS ARND 2500FT AGL. WITH THE QUICK SHIFT IN WINDS
BEHIND THE BNDRY...CIGS SHUD QUICKLY THIN AND LIFT ALONG WITH THE
DRIER AIR THAT WILL PUSH OVERHEAD.

WINDS TURN NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST ARND DAYBREAK SUN...WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY HOVERING ARND 09-12KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF SUN.

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS THRU 23Z...THEN
  MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEEDS.

* MEDIUM CONFIDECE IN PRECISE TIME OF WIND SHIFT AND SPEEDS
  THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ARRIVING AT ORD/MDW. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
  IN PRECISE TIME OF PRECIP ARRIVAL AND DURATION.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ENDING BY 08Z SUN.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS AND LGT N/NE WINDS DEVELOPING BY
  12Z SUN.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
220 PM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LOW IS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.  WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE LAKE TODAY...BUT ARE FINALLY STARTING TO PICK UP.  WILL
KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AND END IT AT 7PM TONIGHT AS
PLANNED.  THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE
LOW REACHES HUDSON BAY TOMORROW.  GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING WINDS
WILL PICK UP TO 30KT THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTH HALF TO THE LAKE.
IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS LIE
JUST 200 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS GOING
THROUGH 03Z AND HIGHER VESSELS WILL PROBABLY ENCOUNTER MORE THAN
JUST OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS.

THE LOWS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS EVENING WITH NW
WINDS 15-20 KT BEHIND IT.  A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE
TOMORROW AND WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH.   THE HIGH PUSHES EAST WITH
SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER
LOW PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE.  THEREFORE...HAVE 30KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  WINDS TURN WEST AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST AND ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE LAKE.

LATE NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS INTERESTING WITH A LARGE LOW CROSSING THE
PLAINS AND PASSING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  MODEL TIMING IS NOT
CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AND MODEL RUNS. THAT BEING SAID
GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING STRONG SOUTH WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD
OF THE LOW.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1149 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MAIN CHANGES WERE FIRST TO CANCEL THE
WIND ADVISORY AND TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GRADIENT IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH THE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE MAX PUSHING
AWAY FROM THE AREA. BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA PUSHING STEADILY EAST. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO END AS WELL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
LOOKING ON TRACK WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE SO JUST MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR. MAIN BAND OF INSTABILITY AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGHEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND INSTABILITY IS IN THE EASTERN HALF.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT STILL TO OUR WEST. SO
SHOULD STILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LEFT
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ALONE AFTER 06Z SINCE IT LOOKS GOOD COMPARED
TO REALITY.

HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT IS DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW. BELIEVE IT IS STILL MOSTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF US. BECAUSE
OF THE OUTFLOW...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED PRETTY FAST ALREADY. DO
EXPECT WIND TO STAY UP AND NOT LET THE TEMPERATURES DROP TOO RAPIDLY.
SO DID ADJUST OVERNIGHT MINS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...UPPER
30S WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WIND AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. IF WINDS
DROP OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN WILL NEED TO ADJUST MINS DOWN
SOME MORE.

WILL BE KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY GOING AT THIS TIME. CURRENT
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY NOT
BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS INDICATED. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH TRENDS AND LET 00Z GUIDANCE ROLL IN AND ASSESS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

AS OF NOON MDT/1PM CDT...WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW
POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN...WITH ITS BASE NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA. SW FLOW
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVER OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
ABOUT LIMON COLORADO...TO GOODLAND KS...AND NORTH INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONT...WITH RECENT RADAR RETURNS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS FRONT LIFTING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING EAST OF THE FRONT OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK REGARDING
COVERAGE...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE INDICATION OF FRONT LIFTING SO FAR...AND UNTIL IT
DOES THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AND SEVERE THREAT) IS IN QUESTION.
LATEST RAP SHOWS 600-900 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY AROUND 00Z IN THE EAST
WHICH ISNT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
THAT THE NAM HAS OVER 1500 J/KG OF MU CAPE IN A SIMILAR AREA. THE
DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO BE TIMING/POSITION OF FRONT WITH NAM
QUICKER/FURTHER NORTH. SHEER IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEER 50KT TO 80KT FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST...AND INCREASING
EFFECTIVE SHEER 40-50KT. IF WE CAN GET A STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT
(INSTABILITY DEPENDED) IT COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE CONSIDERING
THE SHEER PROFILES. LCLS ARE STILL ADVERTISED AROUND 9-10KFT
WHICH IS PRETTY HIGH FOR A WIDESPREAD TORNADO THREAT...SO
WIND/HAIL/HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...AND MODELS SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE 03-06Z PERIOD. I KEPT SOME
CHANCE POPS LINGERING THROUGH 09Z IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A
SLOWER FRONTAL EXIT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO
BE MAINLY A AFTERNOON/EVENING EVENT. PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF FORCING/MOISTURE
ADVERTISED...AND MODEL QPF FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE WEST TO NEAR ONE INCH
IN THE NORTHEAST. WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING/BACK BUILDING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.

REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP INCREASE IN
WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. LATEST MODELS
HAVE DECREASED THE WINDS ALOFT SOME FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...AND
SPED UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY TO ABOVE ADVISORY WIND GUSTS THIS
EVENING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO I DIDNT SEE A
REASON TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. IT CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH
12Z...WHICH MANY BE TOO LONG...HOWEVER IT DOES COVER THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWER FROPA IN THE EAST.

WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A VERY COOL/DRY AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE COOLER TEMPS
SO FAR THIS MONTH. IF WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10KT (WHICH IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED) WE COULD COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
WEST WHICH WOULD PUT US WITHIN FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA
(CONSIDERING TD VALUES AROUND 33F ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE MODEL
CONSENSUS). LOWS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE WEST TO NEAR 50 IN THE EAST...SO NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE SOME EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES...BUT THE MAIN STORM TRACK
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT AT THIS
TIME...THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE GFS PUSHES
IT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...SO
PREFER TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE COMMITTING TO
POPS. FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...MODEL CONSISTENCY BECOMES
EVEN WORSE WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE IN THEIR
UPPER PATTERNS BY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST WILL
HEDGE TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF BOTH TAF SITES. VERY LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFFECTING THE KMCK SITE WITH NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS AT KMCK SHOULD END BY 09Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AFTER THAT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT KGLD. GUSTY WINDS WILL END BY 09Z AT BOTH SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 1156 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

Tonight through Saturday...

Analysis of the water vapor imagery at 19z depicts the potent
shortwave trough axis rotating through southern Wyoming. An embedded
wave and mid level jet streak within the mean flow was lifting
northward into western Kansas. Looking at the surface, the potent
cold front was oriented southwest to northeast from eastern Colorado
through northwest Kansas, through central and northern Nebraska.
Observations noted 30 degree F temp differences between the
boundaries with upper 40s in northeast Colorado. The surface trough
undergoing lee cyclogenesis over southern Colorado continued to
provide strong southerly winds between 15 and 25 mph with gusts over
30 mph during the current peak heating hours. In turn gulf moisture
streaming northward in advance of the sfc trough has brought
dewpoint temperatures into the low 60s. The aforementioned mid level
wave in combination with the surface front has continued to generate
elevated showers lifting northward across western Kansas.

As the upper wave lifts northeastward into the northern plains,
expect the lee surface trough and frontal boundary to quickly usher
eastward towards northeast Kansas. A line of numerous showers and
thunderstorms are likely to develop in vicinity and along the
boundary during the evening and overnight hours. Consistency between
the latest runs of the 3 km HRRR peg the edge of the precip and
front entering north central areas after 07z, impacting much of east
central areas(including Topeka) after 09z. While the highest
probabilities of severe storms reside towards western and central
Kansas, expect the instability gradient to drop steadily eastward
with only a few hundred j/kg of ML cape over north central areas
around 06z. However, strong effective shear values over 50 kts may
still allow for strong gusty winds from 40 to 50 mph. Locally heavy
rain is likely with the heavier showers as pwat values range from
1.25 to 1.9 inches. QPF values did not deviate much from previous
forecast based on fast track of the front ranging from 0.30 to three
quarters of an inch. Precipitation is expected to end Saturday
afternoon with cloud cover quickly exiting southeast as a drier and
cooler airmass settles in.

Temperatures tonight depend on thickness of cloud cover and showers
with lowest readings over north central areas where cool advection
behind the front will be filtering southward. Further east, lows in
the upper 60s appear to be more common. Expect temps to hover in the
60s for much of Saturday afternoon before a gradual warmup as the
clouds thin, topping out in the low 70s. Northerly winds remain
gusty through the period as the h85 shortwave trough continues to
impact the region before exiting Saturday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

As skies clear out and winds settle down behind the front on
Saturday night, overnight lows into Sunday morning are expected to
drop into the lower to middle 40s. Will need to monitor for fog
potential, but air mass is quite dry and therefore fog potential
could be limited to low spots. Sunday forecast to be sunny with
highs in the lower to middle 70s and light south winds. Lows
overnight into Monday should be a few degrees warmer as southerly
winds continue. Thermal ridge out ahead of the next approaching
trof expected to bring highs Monday through Wednesday back up
toward 80 and then lows only falling into the 50s to near 60 by
Thursday morning.

While the sensible weather forecast for Thurs/Fri remains similar
to that of mid week, the speed of an upper trof advancing eastward
into the plains will be the driver of true timing of rain chances
and colder air. Was backing off on progressive solutions as
several ensemble members along with the 00z ECMWF showing a slower
trend, however 12z runs are now coming in slightly faster. Opted
to keep slight chances for rain Thur/Fri, with timing chances too
uncertain to make large changes to a consensus forecast this far
out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

For the 06z TAFs, southeasterly winds at around 10-12kts will
continue through the overnight hours. Main focus is on the timing of
the approaching cold front, which as of 05z was located over western
Kansas. Most of the precipitation is expected to be focused along and
behind this front, with short-range models showing showers and
possibly a few isolated thunderstorms moving into the TAF sites
between 09-11z. Post-frontal showers will continue through much of
the morning hours with conditions drying out by the afternoon. With
this precipitation, could see cigs drop down to MVFR conditions for
a few hours in the morning. With the frontal passage, winds will
veer to the northwest and persist through the remainder of the
period. However, these winds should become light by tonight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 745 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LOSE STRENGTH AS THEY REACH OUR CWA...DYING OUT
AND BECOMING VERY ISOLATED AND LIGHT IN NATURE. AS A RESULT...CUT
BACK ON ANY MENTION OF SCATTERED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO FASTER THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. NOT A BIG CHANGE...BUT WENT AHEAD AND SPED UP
ISOLATED PRECIP ABOUT AN HOUR TO START AT 21Z /NOW/. ALSO LOADED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE SURE ONGOING FORECAST WAS
MATCHING UP WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DYING FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND WANING. A FEW OF THESE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MAKE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ALONG WITH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS FURTHER EAST. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ARE FOUND THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY OUT AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES STILL MANAGED TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS...DEWPOINTS
ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT LIFTING A TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SHEARING IT OUT AS IT MOVES DEEPER
INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. SOME LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL DRIFT INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND ALSO DIMINISH IN THE FACE OF WEAK
FLOW AT MID LEVELS ON MONDAY AND RISING HEIGHTS THAT NIGHT. GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND FOR WEATHER
DETAILS WITH A STRONGER LEAN THAN NORMAL TOWARD THE NEAR-TERM...HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP13 MODELS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE MUDDLED REMNANTS OF THE FRONT AND
ITS DISSIPATING SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND LINGERING
IN THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL NECESSITATE THE INCLUSION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY
AND QPF WILL AVERAGE BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE ANY SHOWER MANAGE
TO PASS OVER. WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED ELEVATED MOISTURE
CONTENT. DID ADD LIGHT FOG IN THE VALLEYS BOTH NIGHTS SHOULD THE
CLOUDS CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT AND ITS BC BROTHER TO JUMP START THE TD AND
WIND GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...AND THE CONSALL THEREAFTER. FOR
TEMPERATURES...USED THE OBS DATABASE AS A BASIS FOR THE DIURNAL
CURVE ALONG WITH MODIFIED CONSALL MAX AND MIN TEMPS...ONLY MINOR
TERRAIN ADJUSTMENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS THROUGH FIRST PART OF THE SHORT
TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A ZONAL AND
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE AS THE JET WILL WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FURTHER
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DURING LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
AN INCREASE OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SOME PRECIP
CHANCES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO...THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND 00Z RUN
OF THE EURO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE...BASED
ON THE ALL BLENDS SOLUTION...WILL LIKELY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR
THURSDAY. THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST COMES INTO PLAY BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND SHIFTS EAST. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS AND EURO ARE ADVERTISING
THE FIRST FALL STRONG COLD FRONT WITH QUITE A COOL SHOT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS BY FRIDAY AGAIN BASED ON THE ALL
MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. IN DEALING WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...BASED ON
THE NEW EURO RUN AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WENT
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS AT THIS
POINT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVING THROUGH
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

MID LEVEL AND VFR LOWER CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND ITS DYING
BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED. AS A RESULT...TOOK ANY MENTION OF VCSH OUT
OF TAFS SINCE ISOLATED SPRINKLES SHOULD NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO THE TAF
SITES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON THE
IMPACTS THIS FOG WILL HAVE AT EACH TAF SITE. THERE IS MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT HOW MUCH WILL THE CLOUDS INHIBIT OR RESTRAIN
THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS STILL IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT STUCK WITH
MVFR POTENTIAL...BUT MAY NEED TO GO BACK AND REVISIT THIS LATER IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 856 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
845 PM UPDATE:
ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE COAST AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS WEBCAMS
ALONG HANCOCK COUNTY COAST SHOWING SOME FOG MOVING ON SHORE.
KEPT PATCH FOG FURTHER NORTH AND WEST AS RIVER AND VALLEYS LOOK
TO BE THE MOST PROMINENT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
AND EARLY MORNINGS. THIS SETUP IS A BIT DIFFERENT HOWEVER AS A
LIGHT S WIND IS ESTABLISHED INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE BLYR TO MOISTEN AND W/THE LATEST RUC & NAM12 SOUNDINGS SHOWED
A SSW WIND THROUGH 4K FT BY 12Z MONDAY. ADJUSTED THE DEWPOINTS UP
AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER CLEAR AND
CALM NIGHT TONIGHT. FOG WILL AGAIN FORM IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG
SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY
MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY AND THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH...TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE...MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WASHINGTON
COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH A BREEZY W/NW WIND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING CONTINUING DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE
HOWEVER. THEREFOR WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR ALL
TIME PERIODS ALONG WITH GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SOME FOG WILL FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING CREATING IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HEWITT/NORCROSS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 728 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A 130 KNOT 250-300 MB JET INTO
THE PAC NW AS A TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE FROM BC. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS
WERE RISING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES IN THE
WEAK OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH INTO NE ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SW WINDS
WERE INCREASING AS SFC RIDGE FROM NRN LOWER MI TO SE KS GRADUALLY
SLIDES TO THE SE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST WHILE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AND ASSOC MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LAKE MI WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDED
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING.

MONDAY...SW WAA WILL INCREASE...PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 12C TO
14C RANGE. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...PER 600-400 MB RH
FCST...SUNSHINE AND MIXING INTO THE 875-850 MB LAYER SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FCST MIXED LAYER WINDS INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS
ALSO DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S RESULTING IN RH VALUES OF AROUND 35
PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER RISKS WILL INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE BY 3-4C TO AROUND 17C MON NIGHT IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND GUSTY MON
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS FROM THE NW WINDS. WHILE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP. THE
00Z/29 ECMWF BROUGHT RAIN A BIT FARTHER S THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IT IS ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING PRECIP THAT FAR
S...AND IT DOES NOT SEEM REALISTIC SINCE THE BEST FORCING FROM THE
LOW WILL BE N OF THE CWA AND THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
WILL BE OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE TIME PERIOD DRY AT THIS TIME.
WITH WNW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS OVERHEAD...WED LOOKS TO SEE CLOSER
TO SEASONAL TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70.

THINGS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCERTAIN THU THROUGH SUN AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL TO MODEL
AGREEMENT IS LACKING. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT MODELS HAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COMBINES WITH OTHER MORE SUBTLE
PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY TO POSSIBLY CAUSE RAPID SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE PLAINS. WITH THIS TYPE OF VOLATILE SYSTEM...SUBTLE FEATURES THAT
ARE BEYOND THE PREDICTABLE CAPABILITIES OF LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS
AT THIS RANGE WILL MAKE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH MAKES FOR HUGE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. IF THE SYSTEM DOES
FOLLOW THE WORST CASE SCENARIO...WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
AS THE SYSTEM WOULD DEEPEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE VERY
QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NE...CAUSING A RAPID PRESSURE CHANGE AND
STRONG GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN VERY
STRONG WINDS /ESPECIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL ENTIRELY...OR AT
LEAST MOSTLY...IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING
AGAIN THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND MODEL
DEPICTIONS WILL SURELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THERE IS
NO VALUE IN ADDING TOO MANY SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE
SYSTEM...THOSE WITH VULNERABLE INTERESTS /ESPECIALLY TO WINDS/
SHOULD KEEP UPDATED ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. ONE THING THAT
DOES LOOK MORE CERTAIN IS THAT COLDER TEMPS AND MORE
UNSETTLED/WETTER WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LLWS IS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AS STRONG SW WINDS DEVELOP ABOVE THE
DECOUPLED SFC LAYER. WILL GET GUSTY AT ALL SITES MON WITH STRONG
WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
IN THE WIND FORECAST DROPS OFF BY LATE THIS WEEK AS MODELS OFFER
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 414 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT SEEP 28 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM ERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO SW MN. AN AREA OF RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND
THE SFC COLD FRONT FROM NE MN THROUGH WRN WI WAS ADVANCING STEADILY
TOWARD UPPER MI. THE COLD FRONT WAS DEFINED BY A VERY NARROW HEAVIER
N-S RAIN BAND TO NEAR HYR AT 1930Z.

TONIGHT...FCST ONSET OF PCPN WAS DELAYED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FCSTS...PER RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODELS. OTHERWISE...
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR
CONV...AROUND 100M 5H HEIGHT FALLS WITH TROUGH...STRONG 850-700MB
FGEN AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM A 120 KNOT 250-300 MB
JET...AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.6
INCHES WILL SUSTAIN THE RAIN BAND AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
TONIGHT. THE SPEED OF THE FRONT MAY LIMIT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS TO
0.20-0.35 INCH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN LOW LEVEL SRLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL PCPN WILL
EXIT THE ERN CWA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SUN WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE/CLEARING
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO REACHING JAMES BAY BY SUN AFTERNOON. THOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE SHOULD CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY...850-750 MB THERMAL TROUGH SUPPORT SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVR CNTRL AND EAST. MIXING TO 850 MB RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPERR 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013

STARTING 00Z MON...THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE WELL E OF THE CWA...AS WILL ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION...WITH
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW CONUS. THROUGH WED...ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CWA...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS CANADA BUT STAYING FAR ENOUGH N OF THE
CWA TO RULE OUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP.

WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT BUILDING TO OUR W MON AND MON
NIGHT...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE CWA LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THEN TURN W TO WNW
LAT TUE THROUGH WED BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS LEADS TO 850MB TEMPS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15C BY 00Z TUE /AN INCREASE OF AROUND 9C FROM
SUN/...AND POSSIBLY WARMING A BIT MORE THROUGH MON NIGHT. WHILE
HIGHS ON SUN LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S...HIGHS ON MON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN SOME SPOTS OVER WRN UPPER MI. LOWS ON MON
NIGHT SHOULD THEN BE IN THE MID 40S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS OVER ERN
UPPER MI TO THE MID 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND W. LOOKS LIKE ANY
PRECIP WITH FROPA ON TUE/TUE NIGHT WILL STAY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TUE SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPS TO
MON...OR POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER GIVEN THE WARM LOW
TEMPS MON NIGHT.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES TUE NIGHT...BUT BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO LOW. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF
7-8C ON WED...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

THINGS BECOME MUCH MORE UNCLEAR THU THROUGH NEXT SAT AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SORT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE ENERGY WILL BE
STRONGER /AND EITHER A DEEP TROUGH OR A CLOSED LOW/...THEY HAVE POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND POOR MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT. THIS LENDS
VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL LOAD A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND AM FINE WITH HIGHER END POPS AS ALL MODEL SCENARIOS
WOULD LEAD TO PRECIP AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. IT IS WORTH POINTING
OUT THAT ALL MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE WARM ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT
TALKING ABOUT MIXED PRECIP...SO IT SEEMS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY
WINTER QUITE YET.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013

EXPECT GUSTY SRLY WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KCMX WILL ALSO
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KIWD AROUND
20Z AND KCMX/KSAW AT 22Z/00Z. CIGS SHOULD LOWER BRIEFLY TO
MVFR...ESPECIALLY AT CMX...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN BUT EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
SCATTERS OUT CLOUD DECK.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013

A FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE WEST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND QUICKLY DECREASE THE WINDS ACROSS
THE LAKE. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BRIEF INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING 25 KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 1147 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
ROCKIES WAVE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS CLOUD TOPS BEGIN TO COOL FROM
NW KS UP INTO SE SODAK. THIS IS THE BEGINNINGS OF THE POST FRONTAL
BAND OF FGEN INDUCED PRECIP THAT ALL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING...WEST OF THE MPX AREA. BESIDE THE COOLING CLOUD
TOPS...SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING CLEARING RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS
MN AND WE HAVE REALLY SEEN WINDS/TEMPS RESPOND TO THE
CLEARING...WITH FAIRMONT HITTING 88 AT 3 PM...ALONG WITH GUSTS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN ALSO APPROACHING 40 MPH.

BIGGEST CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TONIGHT. THE REASON IS THAT THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED FGEN
BAND DO NOT LOOK TO MOVE EAST UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH DOES NOT BEGIN TO HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 6Z.
GIVEN STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...SEEING STRONG
AGREEMENT AMONG HIRES MODELS...WITH EVERYTHING FROM THE HOPWRF
MEMBERS TO YOUR SPC/NMM/ARW WRFS SHOWING RAIN NOT BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO WRN MN UNTIL ALMOST 9Z. THOUGHT ORIENTATION OF INHERITED POPS
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKED GOOD...SO MAINTAINED THE LOOK OF
THE POP GRIDS...JUST SLOWED THINGS DOWN BY 3 OR 4 HOURS TODAY.

HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE NW CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z...BUT THE MAIN SHOW PRECIPITATION
WISE IS COMING LATE TONIGHT. IF WE DO GET CONVECTION TO FIRE AS THE
HRRR SUGGESTS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY OF IT WILL BE SEVERE THANKS TO
SBCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WOULD NEED MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY TO
GET MUCH MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE ANY THUNDER MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST SINCE FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL JUST BE RAIN. BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH...SO
MAINTAINED THE ISO THUNDER WORDING.

FOR QPF...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS REMAINED QUITE HIGH IN 0.3-0.5 INCHES
FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SO KEPT THE QPF FORECAST CLOSE TO
A WPC/MODEL BLEND.

FINALLY FOR TEMPERATURES...BEING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY FALLING BACK INTO
THE MID 60S FOR LOWS...WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL...FOR HIGHS THIS
TIME OF YEAR! FOR SATURDAY...USED THE NAM TO RUN THE DIURNAL TREND
FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH RESULTED IN FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN THE ERN CWA AS THE BAND OF RAIN MOVES FROM
ERN MN INTO WRN WI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

AFTER SATURDAY SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...THE MEAN
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND SFC FEATURES WILL BE WELL INTO
CANADA LEADING TO A DRY PERIOD THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...THE PACIFIC NW HAS BEEN VERY WET DUE
TO A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED THRU THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. OUR REGION WILL HOLD ONTO A MORE FAST WEST TO EAST
FLOW...WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE SE MUCH WARMER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD. THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE /PACIFIC NW/...WHICH IS A DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE SE...AND THE PACIFIC NW...THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. BASICALLY THIS IS A WETTER PATTERN FOR
THE UPPER MIDWEST AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH A POWERFUL JET STREAM PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
THE UPPER JET ALONE WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHC OF CYCLOGENESIS
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS /INCREASING MOIST FROM THE GULF/ AND AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHC/S. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS TIMING OF
THIS PATTERN CHG...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO SFC FEATURES. BOTH THE
GFS/EC HAVE A SIMILAR PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DIFFERENCES
ARISE IN THE AMPLIFICATION. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY
BY FRIDAY WITH A CUT OFF SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT HAS THE SAME LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN U.S. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE 50H PATTERN SEEMS
TO BE MORE IN LINE OF A DEEPER TROUGH...AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC/LIKELY POPS
FOR THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TRENDS OF THE MODELS WILL
DICTATE THE STRENGTH AND SPEED ONCE THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHG
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A FINAL NOTE...BOTH THE GFS/EC DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
ONCE THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS AND MOVES THRU THE WEEKEND OF OCTOBER
5TH. 85H TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER WEST OF KAXN AT 05Z.
APPEARS THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MISS KAXN. WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA IS FORECAST LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...SLOWING THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. THE LOW
SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF KAXN THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. THE FRONT SHOULD
THEN MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS TO KMSP AROUND 15Z AND INTO THE KEAU
AREA BY 20Z. CEILINGS FORECAST TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. DID MENTION IFR AT KAXN...AFTER 11Z FOR. LOW
END MVFR EXPECTED WITH THE SHRA/RA AS IT MOVES EAST. GOOD FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT SO DO ANTICIPATE A FEW HOURS OF RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THUNDER THREAT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TAFS. SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON WEST AND EARLY EVENING IN THE EAST. SOME THREAT OF FOG
FORMING LATE...MAINLY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD BE
AFTER 06Z.29 HOWEVER. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY...THEN BECOME W/NW WITH FROPA AND GUSTY FOR A TIME AS
WELL. SHOULD ALL DIMINISH BE 00Z.29.

KMSP...
SSE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
AS SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.
FROPA AROUND 15Z. WINDS BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING WITH SOME
GUSTS 20-25KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP OFF
TO MVFR RAPIDLY WITH -SHRA. SOME POTENTIAL OF LESS THAN 017 BUT
WILL MONITOR FOR NEAR TAF ISSUANCE. APPEARS RAIN SHOULD END
THROUGH ABOUT 21Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z.29.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
.SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
.MON...VFR. WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
.TUE...VFR. WINDS SW-W 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...DWE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 949 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

.UPDATE:
Issued at 943 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

Made a few significant changes to the previous forecast for
tonight. First is the stratus that is flirting with the southern
border of our CWA across southern Illinois into southeast
Missouri. The northwest edge of this has already begun to slowly
advance northward into Reynolds, Iron, and Madison Counties. To
varying degrees, all the short range guidance has the advective
flow in the cloud bearing layer becoming light southeasterly
overnight and bringing this stratus northward into at least the
eastern Ozarks and south central Illinois. To the north of this,
we have already seen temp/dew point spreads rapidly decrease since
sunset and some locations are less than 3 degrees at 02z. Further
radiational cooling tonight should lead to the development of fog
over the southeast third of the CWA. The HRRR has been showing
this in all its runs since midday and it did an outstanding job on
the dense fog last night/early this morning from northeast and
central Missouri into southwest Missouri. The new update adds the
mention of areas of dense fog and increases the sky cover to the
south, along with tweeking some temps down a few degrees.

Glass

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

Cold front settled southeast of the CWA as expected, currently
stretching from central Indiana to the Bootheel of Missouri. In
its wake, clear and pleasant weather conditions were reported with
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s and dewpoints in the
40s and 50s.

Some worry about fog developing tonight across southeast Missouri
and southern Illinois where clouds are just now clearing out. Will
place some patchy fog down that way and let evening shift monitor
for the need of any headlines. Elsewhere, drier air and sunshine
today should keep fog limited to just typical river valleys.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

Return flow in the wake of the surface ridge already underway to
our west and this should move east tomorrow, allowing a warming
trend back into the 80s through Wednesday.

Chance of rain increases Thursday through Saturday as a trof of
low pressure aloft deepens across the Plains and a surface cold
front settles into the Midwest. Details on timing and surface low
development are still up in the air, but it certainly appears
there is a good chance of seeing some meaningful rain out of this
system late in the week and into the weekend. Due to timing
uncertainty have kept POPs in chance category.

Cool air expected in the wake of the system next weekend with
highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

Surface ridge to remain in place overnight with light and variable
winds. With light winds, clear skies and cooler temps could see
some fog in the river valleys. So kept tempo fog mention in KSUS
and KCPS late tonight. Otherwise, ridge to move off to the east on
Monday allowing southerly winds to return and pickup to near 10
kts.

Specifics for KSTL:
Surface ridge to remain in place overnight with light and variable
winds. With light winds, clear skies and cooler temps could see
some fog in the river valleys but KSTL should remain fog free.
Otherwise, ridge to move off to the east on Monday allowing
southerly winds to return and pickup to near 10 kts by 16z Monday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2013

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

No major changes to forecast thinking as rain and storms move through
this morning. Any thunder is confined to the leading edge of this
activity which has already made it into the Sedalia and Kirksville
areas. These storms may become a bit stronger as they track toward
eastern MO later today where temps are rising into the mid/upper 70s,
but threat for any strong storms west of the US-63 corridor is very
low. Rainfall amounts so far have generally been around a quarter of
an inch or less, though some gauges on the west side of the KC metro
have picked up over a half inch so far. Followed closely the HRRR for
the back edge of this activity since this model has had a good handle
on this system so far. Looks like rapid clearing will make it to the
I-35 corridor by early afternoon and into far eastern portions of the
forecast area by late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

Forecast is still on line for much of the area to get some rain on
Saturday. Radar trends across central Kansas and eastern Nebraska
show widespread showers and thunderstorms. They appear to be in
association with a rather potent neutrally tilted trough, which is
currently situated over the western Plains. While this mid level
trough is providing decent mid level forcing for ascent the surface
cold front also seems to be a contributing factor of where the more
widespread showery activity is located. Currently the surface cold
front is located on a line from KSUX through KAUH and KGBD. The first
echoes should be encroaching upon the forecast area in far NW
Missouri within the hour and precip will continue to spread eastward
through the rest of the morning and afternoon hours. Expect showers
to form in the KC Metro area perhaps around 12z, lasting through
around 18z before dissipating and moving off to the east. Areas of
central Missouri will likely see precipitation begin in the late
morning or early afternoon, lasting through the afternoon hours
before moving off to the east by later this evening. Currently not
expecting much in the way of a severe threat, however models do
indicate perhaps up to 500-1000 J/kg of MU Cape as the showers move
through, which may increase the coverage of thunderstorm activity. In
conjunction with the moderate instability NAM does hint at around
20-30 kts of 0-6 km wind shear, which may add to the updraft strength
of select storms. As a result, still expect a NIL severe weather day,
however coverage of thunderstorm activity may increase slightly, and
perhaps an isolated updraft or two could bring some small hail and/or
gusty winds. As mentioned above, expect showers and thunderstorms to
exit the area from west to east by this evening. Expected QPF for
this system will be on the low end, considering it`s convective
nature, but with it`s progressive nature expect only a quarter to
half inch of rain, with perhaps a few isolated locations receiving
higher amounts of around three quarters of an inch.

Northerly cool and dry air will then settle into the area for the
remainder of the weekend, as the surface high moves into Missouri.
At the moment expecting overnight lows on Saturday night into Sunday
morning to drop well into the 40s, especially along the northern
half of the forecast area, with perhaps some lower 50s further
south. Sunday will bring sunny conditions, with perhaps slightly
warmer temperatures in the middle 70s. Monday will be a near repeat
of Sunday with sunny skies and temperatures in the middle to upper
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected for
Tuesday and most of Wednesday, as broad zonal flow gradually turns
west southwest and southerly low-level winds increase. A deep trough
building over the northeast Pacific will begin dropping southeast by
late Wednesday, orienting the flow more southwest-northeast and
allowing a few disturbances to lift northeast into the forecast area
from early Thursday morning through Friday. This shift in the
pattern will make showers and storms possible for much of the latter
half of the week, but will also hold temperatures down a bit with
cloud cover and precipitation around the area. Model agreement is
still poor for timing the main trough axis into the central CONUS,
but precipitation will be likely with that system as it pushes
through, sometime Friday or Saturday. Significantly more seasonable
temperatures are expected behind this system, especially if the low
cuts off as indicated by the 00z runs of the EC and GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

Rapid improvement is moving in from the west at this hour with the
back edge of rain already clearing the KC area. An hour or two of
IFR/MVFR cigs will persist after the rain clears out before
conditions quickly lift into VFR for the rest of the evening. Back
edge of rain should reach the IRK-COU corridor by 23Z or so. Winds
will quickly decrease toward 00Z, becoming light and variable by
sunrise. This may favor a few areas of mist or fog toward sunrise given
the wet ground.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 949 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2013

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

No major changes to forecast thinking as rain and storms move through
this morning. Any thunder is confined to the leading edge of this
activity which has already made it into the Sedalia and Kirksville
areas. These storms may become a bit stronger as they track toward
eastern MO later today where temps are rising into the mid/upper 70s,
but threat for any strong storms west of the US-63 corridor is very
low. Rainfall amounts so far have generally been around a quarter of
an inch or less, though some gauges on the west side of the KC metro
have picked up over a half inch so far. Followed closely the HRRR for
the back edge of this activity since this model has had a good handle
on this system so far. Looks like rapid clearing will make it to the
I-35 corridor by early afternoon and into far eastern portions of the
forecast area by late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

Forecast is still on line for much of the area to get some rain on
Saturday. Radar trends across central Kansas and eastern Nebraska
show widespread showers and thunderstorms. They appear to be in
association with a rather potent neutrally tilted trough, which is
currently situated over the western Plains. While this mid level
trough is providing decent mid level forcing for ascent the surface
cold front also seems to be a contributing factor of where the more
widespread showery activity is located. Currently the surface cold
front is located on a line from KSUX through KAUH and KGBD. The first
echoes should be encroaching upon the forecast area in far NW
Missouri within the hour and precip will continue to spread eastward
through the rest of the morning and afternoon hours. Expect showers
to form in the KC Metro area perhaps around 12z, lasting through
around 18z before dissipating and moving off to the east. Areas of
central Missouri will likely see precipitation begin in the late
morning or early afternoon, lasting through the afternoon hours
before moving off to the east by later this evening. Currently not
expecting much in the way of a severe threat, however models do
indicate perhaps up to 500-1000 J/kg of MU Cape as the showers move
through, which may increase the coverage of thunderstorm activity. In
conjunction with the moderate instability NAM does hint at around
20-30 kts of 0-6 km wind shear, which may add to the updraft strength
of select storms. As a result, still expect a NIL severe weather day,
however coverage of thunderstorm activity may increase slightly, and
perhaps an isolated updraft or two could bring some small hail and/or
gusty winds. As mentioned above, expect showers and thunderstorms to
exit the area from west to east by this evening. Expected QPF for
this system will be on the low end, considering it`s convective
nature, but with it`s progressive nature expect only a quarter to
half inch of rain, with perhaps a few isolated locations receiving
higher amounts of around three quarters of an inch.

Northerly cool and dry air will then settle into the area for the
remainder of the weekend, as the surface high moves into Missouri.
At the moment expecting overnight lows on Saturday night into Sunday
morning to drop well into the 40s, especially along the northern
half of the forecast area, with perhaps some lower 50s further
south. Sunday will bring sunny conditions, with perhaps slightly
warmer temperatures in the middle 70s. Monday will be a near repeat
of Sunday with sunny skies and temperatures in the middle to upper
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected for
Tuesday and most of Wednesday, as broad zonal flow gradually turns
west southwest and southerly low-level winds increase. A deep trough
building over the northeast Pacific will begin dropping southeast by
late Wednesday, orienting the flow more southwest-northeast and
allowing a few disturbances to lift northeast into the forecast area
from early Thursday morning through Friday. This shift in the
pattern will make showers and storms possible for much of the latter
half of the week, but will also hold temperatures down a bit with
cloud cover and precipitation around the area. Model agreement is
still poor for timing the main trough axis into the central CONUS,
but precipitation will be likely with that system as it pushes
through, sometime Friday or Saturday. Significantly more seasonable
temperatures are expected behind this system, especially if the low
cuts off as indicated by the 00z runs of the EC and GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

First wave of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving through
the terminals. The showers are separated so there will not be any
extended period of diminished conditions, however there may be a
brief shower at the terminals over the next couple hours. The more
widespread precipitation gets to the terminals around 13z, with a
more extended period of deteriorated conditions. Expect the bulk of
the precipitation to move through by 15z to 16z, with the lingering
showery activity clearing the area by 18z. Thereafter expect mostly
VFR conditions with light northerly winds for remainder of the
period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1239 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

1450Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITHIN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH THE FORECAST. THE
AREA OF RAINFALL EAST OF THE VALLEY LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH WILL ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF
THE REGION QUICKLY. THE AREA OF RAINFALL WEST OF THE VALLEY LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE...AS SEEN IN 500MB-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM THE MODELS. WILL FOLLOW THIS FORCING
FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR ENDING OF THE CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY. THIS
DELAYS THE ENDING OF RAINFALL AN HOUR TO TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 12Z HRRR/RAP AGREE WITH THIS CHANGE. WITH
THAT...ALSO DELAYED CLEARING A FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

FCST GOING AS EXPECTED. SFC LOW AT 08Z VERY NEAR MARSHALL MN AND
THIS IS PROGGED BY LATEST HRRR MODEL TO LIFT TO NEAR BEMIDJI-PARK
RAPIDS AREA IN THE 12-14Z PERIOD THEN TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS
BY 16Z. MAIN PRECIP DEF ZONE BAND OVER ERN SD INTO ERN ND MAINLY
HOLDING ALONG AND WEST OF A ROSEAU TO DETROIT LAKES TO WHEATON
LINE. EXPECT RAIN AREA TO SHIFT BACK EAST AS SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD
BEMIDJI BY 12-14Z.

GOING OFF LATEST HRRR/RAP AND NAM12 TWEAKED POPS TO SHOW MAIN
PRECIP ENDING IN THE SRN RRV 15-17Z...THEN 17-19Z IN THEN NRN
VALLEY AND THEN 22-23Z IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. RAIN TOTALS
PER AWOS/ASOS AND OTHER STATIONS INDICATE A TENTH OR TWO AN
HOUR...WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH TOTAL FROM
THIS SYSTEM IN THE MAIN RAIN BAND IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTN WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND
WITH A CLEAR SKY DO EXPECT LOWS TO REACH THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S...WITH AN ISOLD 35-36 PSBL IN PLACES SUCH AS LANGDON OR IN THE
SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY (I.E. COOPERSTOWN AREA).

WINDS TO TURN SOUTH SUNDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

SOUTH WIND STAYS UP A BIT SUN NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS MILDER THAN
TONIGHT. WINDS TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND WITH 850
MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS EXPECT HIGHS 75 TO 80 IN MOST AREAS. DID
INTRODUCE A LOW POP MON EVE IN NE ND AND MON OVERNIGHT IN FAR NW
MN WITH SFC TROUGH PASSAGE. MAIN LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH SO ANY
PRECIP VERY LIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WIND FROM 15 TO 25 MPH. NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY. 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH MUCH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL FOLLOW ALL
BLEND CHANCE POPS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...FRIDAY
COULD BE DRY OR SEE LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. NO MATTER THE MODEL SOLUTION...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN...THURSDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE
EVEN COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THE PACIFIC WAVE/S COLD FRONT DROPPING
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 50S REGION-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

VFR CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTH AND EAST HAVE CLEARED THE KDVL AREA
AND ARE APPROACHING KFAR. TRANSITION FROM LCL IFR / MVFR TO VFR WILL
OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER -RA ENDS....REACHING KBJI CLOSER TO
00Z. WITH DECREASING CLDS EXPECT WESTERLY FLOW TO BRIEFLY GUST TO
AROUND 20KTS...BEFORE DYING OFF NEAR 00Z. VFR AFTER 00Z AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW LT 10KTS AFTER DARK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...EWENS





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 955 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

1450Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITHIN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH THE FORECAST. THE
AREA OF RAINFALL EAST OF THE VALLEY LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH WILL ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF
THE REGION QUICKLY. THE AREA OF RAINFALL WEST OF THE VALLEY LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE...AS SEEN IN 500MB-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM THE MODELS. WILL FOLLOW THIS FORCING
FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR ENDING OF THE CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY. THIS
DELAYS THE ENDING OF RAINFALL AN HOUR TO TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 12Z HRRR/RAP AGREE WITH THIS CHANGE. WITH
THAT...ALSO DELAYED CLEARING A FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

FCST GOING AS EXPECTED. SFC LOW AT 08Z VERY NEAR MARSHALL MN AND
THIS IS PROGGED BY LATEST HRRR MODEL TO LIFT TO NEAR BEMIDJI-PARK
RAPIDS AREA IN THE 12-14Z PERIOD THEN TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS
BY 16Z. MAIN PRECIP DEF ZONE BAND OVER ERN SD INTO ERN ND MAINLY
HOLDING ALONG AND WEST OF A ROSEAU TO DETROIT LAKES TO WHEATON
LINE. EXPECT RAIN AREA TO SHIFT BACK EAST AS SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD
BEMIDJI BY 12-14Z.

GOING OFF LATEST HRRR/RAP AND NAM12 TWEAKED POPS TO SHOW MAIN
PRECIP ENDING IN THE SRN RRV 15-17Z...THEN 17-19Z IN THEN NRN
VALLEY AND THEN 22-23Z IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. RAIN TOTALS
PER AWOS/ASOS AND OTHER STATIONS INDICATE A TENTH OR TWO AN
HOUR...WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH TOTAL FROM
THIS SYSTEM IN THE MAIN RAIN BAND IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTN WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND
WITH A CLEAR SKY DO EXPECT LOWS TO REACH THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S...WITH AN ISOLD 35-36 PSBL IN PLACES SUCH AS LANGDON OR IN THE
SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY (I.E. COOPERSTOWN AREA).

WINDS TO TURN SOUTH SUNDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

SOUTH WIND STAYS UP A BIT SUN NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS MILDER THAN
TONIGHT. WINDS TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND WITH 850
MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS EXPECT HIGHS 75 TO 80 IN MOST AREAS. DID
INTRODUCE A LOW POP MON EVE IN NE ND AND MON OVERNIGHT IN FAR NW
MN WITH SFC TROUGH PASSAGE. MAIN LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH SO ANY
PRECIP VERY LIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WIND FROM 15 TO 25 MPH. NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY. 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH MUCH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL FOLLOW ALL
BLEND CHANCE POPS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...FRIDAY
COULD BE DRY OR SEE LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. NO MATTER THE MODEL SOLUTION...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN...THURSDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE
EVEN COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THE PACIFIC WAVE/S COLD FRONT DROPPING
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 50S REGION-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

RAIN ENDING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH MVFR CIG IMPRVG TO VFR
16Z-17Z. THIS MORNINGS RAIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...THOUGH LCL IFR CIGS BECOMING DOMINATE
THROUGH 18Z VALLEY AND 21Z FAR EAST. CLEARING LINE MAY BE QUITE
SHARP AND EXACT TIMING LIKELY WILL NEED UPDATING THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE/EWENS





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 734 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

WESTERN EDGE OF RAIN BAND REMAINS ROLLA TO JUST EAST OF BISMARCK
AND LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER THINKING IN SPREADING
EAST. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT AND DELAYED ENDING OF RAIN JUST A
TAD THRU EARLY AFTN INTO THE VALLEY AND NW MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

FCST GOING AS EXPECTED. SFC LOW AT 08Z VERY NEAR MARSHALL MN AND
THIS IS PROGGED BY LATEST HRRR MODEL TO LIFT TO NEAR BEMIDJ-PARK
RAPIDS AREA IN THE 12-14Z PERIOD THEN TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS
BY 16Z. MAIN PRECIP DEF ZONE BAND OVER ERN SD INTO ERN ND MAINLY
HOLDING ALONG AND WEST OF A ROSEAU TO DETROIT LAKES TO WHEATON
LINE. EXPECT RAIN AREA TO SHIFT BACK EAST AS SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD
BEMIDJI BY 12-14Z.

GOING OFF LATEST HRRR/RAP AND NAM12 TWEEKED POPS TO SHOW MAIN
PRECIP ENDING IN THE SRN RRV 15-17Z...THEN 17-19Z IN THEN NRN
VALLEY AND THEN 22-23Z IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. RAIN TOTALS
PER AWOS/ASOS AND OTHER STATIONS INDICATE A TENTH OR TWO AN
HOUR...WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH TOTAL FROM
THIS SYSTEM IN THE MAIN RAIN BAND IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTN WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND
WITH A CLEAR SKY DO EXPECT LOWS TO REACH THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S...WITH AN ISOLD 35-36 PSBL IN PLACES SUCH AS LANGDON OR IN THE
SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY (I.E. COOPERSTOWN AREA).

WINDS TO TURN SOUTH SUNDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

SOUTH WIND STAYS UP A BIT SUN NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS MILDER THAN
TONIGHT. WINDS TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND WITH 850
MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS EXPECT HIGHS 75 TO 80 IN MOST AREAS. DID
INTRODUCE A LOW POP MON EVE IN NE ND AND MON OVERNIGHT IN FAR NW
MN WITH SFC TROUGH PASSAGE. MAIN LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH SO ANY
PRECIP VERY LIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WIND FROM 15 TO 25 MPH. NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY. 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH MUCH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL FOLLOW ALL
BLEND CHANCE POPS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...FRIDAY
COULD BE DRY OR SEE LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. NO MATTER THE MODEL SOLUTION...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN...THURSDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE
EVEN COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THE PACIFIC WAVE/S COLD FRONT DROPPING
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 50S REGION-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

THIS MORNING RAIN TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...THOUGH LCL IFR CIGS BECOMING DOMINATE 12Z-15Z PERIOD IN
THE VALLEY INTO NRN MN. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN IN ERN ND AND
EARLY THIS EVE IN NRN MN. CLEARING LINE MAY BE QUITE SHARP AND
EXACT TIMING LIKELY WILL NEED UPDATING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 329 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

FCST GOING AS EXPECTED. SFC LOW AT 08Z VERY NEAR MARSHALL MN AND
THIS IS PROGGED BY LATEST HRRR MODEL TO LIFT TO NEAR BEMIDJ-PARK
RAPIDS AREA IN THE 12-14Z PERIOD THEN TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS
BY 16Z. MAIN PRECIP DEF ZONE BAND OVER ERN SD INTO ERN ND MAINLY
HOLDING ALONG AND WEST OF A ROSEAU TO DETROIT LAKES TO WHEATON
LINE. EXPECT RAIN AREA TO SHIFT BACK EAST AS SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD
BEMIDJI BY 12-14Z.

GOING OFF LATEST HRRR/RAP AND NAM12 TWEEKED POPS TO SHOW MAIN
PRECIP ENDING IN THE SRN RRV 15-17Z...THEN 17-19Z IN THEN NRN
VALLEY AND THEN 22-23Z IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. RAIN TOTALS
PER AWOS/ASOS AND OTHER STATIONS INDICATE A TENTH OR TWO AN
HOUR...WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH TOTAL FROM
THIS SYSTEM IN THE MAIN RAIN BAND IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTN WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND
WITH A CLEAR SKY DO EXPECT LOWS TO REACH THE UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S...WITH AN ISOLD 35-36 PSBL IN PLACES SUCH AS LANGDON OR IN THE
SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY (I.E. COOPERSTOWN AREA).

WINDS TO TURN SOUTH SUNDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

SOUTH WIND STAYS UP A BIT SUN NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS MILDER THAN
TONIGHT. WINDS TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND WITH 850
MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS EXPECT HIGHS 75 TO 80 IN MOST AREAS. DID
INTRODUCE A LOW POP MON EVE IN NE ND AND MON OVERNIGHT IN FAR NW
MN WITH SFC TROUGH PASSAGE. MAIN LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH SO ANY
PRECIP VERY LIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT COOLER AND BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WIND FROM 15 TO 25 MPH. NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY. 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF
BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH MUCH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL FOLLOW ALL
BLEND CHANCE POPS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...FRIDAY
COULD BE DRY OR SEE LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. NO MATTER THE MODEL SOLUTION...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN...THURSDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE
EVEN COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THE PACIFIC WAVE/S COLD FRONT DROPPING
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 50S REGION-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

CIGS CONTINUE IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WITH PRIMARILY VFR VSBY. AS RAIN
SHIELD LIFTS NORTHWARD COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBY AND LOWERING CIGS
WITH MORE IFR. CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT AS
RAIN OVERSPREADS REGION. DVL TAF SITE SEEING BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING VFR.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...VOELKER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1149 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

LEADING EDGE OF MAIN PCPN BAND FROM NEAR BJI TO VALLEY CITY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF RA UPSTREAM
AND AS SURFACE LOW RIDES UP BOUNDARY CAT POPS SEEM IN ORDER AFT
MIDNIGHT. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE. NARROW RIBBON OF T ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN
WEAKENING AND LGT STRIKES DIMINISHING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. STEADIER RAIN BAND NOW INTO FAR NW FA SO INCREASED POPS
THERE. ELSEWHERE SOLID RAIN BAND WITH ISOLD T STILL A FEW HOURS
FROM REACHING FAR SOUTHERN FA SO CURRENT POPS OK FOR NOW. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

PRIMARY FOCUS THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING. MORE ORGANIZED -RA APPROACHING NW FA AND INCREASED
POPS THROUGH THE EVENING THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE PCPN MORE SPOTTY
WITH MAIN RAIN BAND MOVING INTO SOUTHERN FA LATER THIS EVENING.
MADE POP ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY THESE AREAS. T THREAT AT THIS POINT
LOOKS MINIMAL. NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

THE CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. EVERYTHING YOU
HAVE READ IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS (SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS) IS STILL VALID AND THE FORECAST IS UNFOLDING
ACCORDING TO PLAN. THE 12Z NAM IS A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THE MAIN
BAND OF RAIN TONIGHT...AND THE RAP IS ALSO WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW THE MOST CONSISTENT ECMWF (WHICH MOSTLY IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS AND GEM). THERE WILL BE AREAS OF SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE RAINFALL MOVES
INTO THE REGION (MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT). STILL LOOKING LIKE AROUND
AN INCH OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AS THE UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

SUNDAY-MONDAY...FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. 12Z MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
STRONGER UPPER WAVES DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD ON TUESDAY...ECMWF HINTS AT A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH
THE FLOW PAINTING SOME PCPN. BUT THIS SEEMS NEW AND IS CONTRARY TO
OTHER GUIDANCE SO WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10 TO
15C RANGE POINT TO A WARM START TO THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERN SPOTS
MAXING OUT IN THE 70S.

ECMWF ALSO APPEARS TO BE PLACING PCPN A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE OUR DRY FCST THROUGH MIDWEEK.  SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT SHOULD
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE CWA BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...WITH INDICATIONS OF
CAPE SUITABLE FOR SOME THUNDER...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST.  THE MILD TEMPS OF THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GONE BY FRIDAY...AS COLDER IS DRAWN DOWN
FROM CANADA LEE OF THE TROUGH...LEAVING THE MERCURY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

CIGS CONTINUE IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WITH PRIMARILY VFR VSBY. AS RAIN
SHIELD LIFTS NORTHWARD COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBY AND LOWERING CIGS
WITH MORE IFR. CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT AS
RAIN OVERSPREADS REGION. DVL TAF SITE SEEING BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

 909 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY AT THIS TIME AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE GULF WATERS. LESS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST SO LOWER THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THE REST OF THE EVENING.
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
IMPACTING THE KBRO TERMINAL. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD AND COULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HIGH CIRRUS DEBRI CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AT AROUND 2000
FEET WILL STREAM ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF IN A FEW HOURS WITH VARIABLE WINDS
PREVAILING TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...FAIRLY COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WEAK SFC RIDGE ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...AND A
WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST TO ROUGHLY A MCALLEN
TO BAFFIN BAY LINE. AT THE SAME TIME RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOW AN MCV/CLOSED CYCLONE PATTERN ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF ZAPATA
COUNTY WHICH IS MORE FOCUSED THAN THE 850MB TROUGH THAT SHOWED UP
ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR CHART. THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE APPARENT
SURFACE REFLECTION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A JET MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEPENING WEST TEXAS TROUGH IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE
DIFFLUENT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT PARTIALLY CURVES SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE RIDGE. COLUMN MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING PER
SATELLITE PWAT ESTIMATES AND PERIODIC LOW CLOUD COVERAGE AND
MODIFIED RAP AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT A RESIDUAL 850MB CAP IS VERY LIKELY
HOLDING BACK INITIATION AT THIS HOUR WHICH BASED ON THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS SO FAR SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE.

REST OF THE AFTERNOON...VWP SHOWS MODEST WESTERLY WINDS WHICH
SHOULD BE TRANSPORTING THE RICHER COLUMN MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...WHICH IS FAIRLY COUNTER INTUITIVE FOR OUR GEOGRAPHY. DO NOT
BELIEVE THAT THE VELOCITY OR TRAJECTORY WILL INCREASE OUR
CAPPING...BUT IT MAY...AND THAT MAY KEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION HELD
BACK UNTIL UPPER TROUGHING GETS CLOSER. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A SEABREEZE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AT LEAST SOMETHING GOING
BY 4 PM HOWEVER. ANYTHING THAT GOES UP WILL BE VIRTUALLY STATIONARY
AND WITH INCREASING PWATS A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT EXISTS.

TONIGHT...GFS IS THE SLOWEST BRINGING THE TROUGH THROUGH AND DOES
NOT SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE/LIFT UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND KEEPS THE WINDOW OPEN FOR HIGHER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY. RAP/HRRR/NAM START LARGE SCALE UPPER LIFT
EARLIER...BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CLEARS THE AREA FASTER ON MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR AND GOES DERIVED WINDS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME
DIFFLUENCE WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AND LIKELY HELP GET A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION GOING OVER AT LEAST THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA BY 6 OR 7
PM...WITH THE CHANCE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER LIFT
PEAKS AROUND 06Z/100 AM CDT OVER THE AREA AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES AROUND THIS TIME. BUMPED UP TO LIKELY
POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER IN
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER LAYER
STEERING WINDS INCREASE AND START TO MOVE THE CONVECTION ALONG MORE
QUICKLY.

MONDAY...BELIEVE THE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK AS FAR AS COMPLETE
CLEARING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THE 12Z ECMWF AGREES FAIRLY
WELL. SO KEPT 30/40 PCT POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE STARTING TO WANE AFTER ABOUT 2100Z/400 PM AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CLEARS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE FASTER MOVING ON MONDAY. PREVAILING
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATING AROUND
CONVECTION WITH A WINDOW FOR HEATING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
MORNING...AND AFTER STORMS START TO WANE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH UPPER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS THERE MAY BE A THREAT FOR GROUND FOG OR
RADIATION FOG GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB LOW ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TX BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST LINGERS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST THURSDAY. A 500MB TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD
FRIDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TX SATURDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START BY LATE EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. PREVAILING WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. MORE
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN MONDAY
MORNING PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TX FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

 646 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THE REST OF THE EVENING.
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
IMPACTING THE KBRO TERMINAL. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD AND COULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HIGH CIRRUS DEBRI CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AT AROUND 2000
FEET WILL STREAM ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF IN A FEW HOURS WITH VARIABLE WINDS
PREVAILING TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...FAIRLY COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WEAK SFC RIDGE ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...AND A
WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST TO ROUGHLY A MCALLEN
TO BAFFIN BAY LINE. AT THE SAME TIME RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOW AN MCV/CLOSED CYCLONE PATTERN ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF ZAPATA
COUNTY WHICH IS MORE FOCUSED THAN THE 850MB TROUGH THAT SHOWED UP
ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR CHART. THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE APPARENT
SURFACE REFLECTION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A JET MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEPENING WEST TEXAS TROUGH IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE
DIFFLUENT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT PARTIALLY CURVES SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE RIDGE. COLUMN MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING PER
SATELLITE PWAT ESTIMATES AND PERIODIC LOW CLOUD COVERAGE AND
MODIFIED RAP AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT A RESIDUAL 850MB CAP IS VERY LIKELY
HOLDING BACK INITIATION AT THIS HOUR WHICH BASED ON THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS SO FAR SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE.

REST OF THE AFTERNOON...VWP SHOWS MODEST WESTERLY WINDS WHICH
SHOULD BE TRANSPORTING THE RICHER COLUMN MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...WHICH IS FAIRLY COUNTER INTUITIVE FOR OUR GEOGRAPHY. DO NOT
BELIEVE THAT THE VELOCITY OR TRAJECTORY WILL INCREASE OUR
CAPPING...BUT IT MAY...AND THAT MAY KEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION HELD
BACK UNTIL UPPER TROUGHING GETS CLOSER. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A SEABREEZE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AT LEAST SOMETHING GOING
BY 4 PM HOWEVER. ANYTHING THAT GOES UP WILL BE VIRTUALLY STATIONARY
AND WITH INCREASING PWATS A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT EXISTS.

TONIGHT...GFS IS THE SLOWEST BRINGING THE TROUGH THROUGH AND DOES
NOT SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE/LIFT UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND KEEPS THE WINDOW OPEN FOR HIGHER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY. RAP/HRRR/NAM START LARGE SCALE UPPER LIFT
EARLIER...BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CLEARS THE AREA FASTER ON MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR AND GOES DERIVED WINDS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME
DIFFLUENCE WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AND LIKELY HELP GET A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION GOING OVER AT LEAST THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA BY 6 OR 7
PM...WITH THE CHANCE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER LIFT
PEAKS AROUND 06Z/100 AM CDT OVER THE AREA AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES AROUND THIS TIME. BUMPED UP TO LIKELY
POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER IN
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER LAYER
STEERING WINDS INCREASE AND START TO MOVE THE CONVECTION ALONG MORE
QUICKLY.

MONDAY...BELIEVE THE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK AS FAR AS COMPLETE
CLEARING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THE 12Z ECMWF AGREES FAIRLY
WELL. SO KEPT 30/40 PCT POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE STARTING TO WANE AFTER ABOUT 2100Z/400 PM AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CLEARS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE FASTER MOVING ON MONDAY. PREVAILING
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATING AROUND
CONVECTION WITH A WINDOW FOR HEATING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
MORNING...AND AFTER STORMS START TO WANE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH UPPER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS THERE MAY BE A THREAT FOR GROUND FOG OR
RADIATION FOG GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB LOW ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TX BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST LINGERS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST THURSDAY. A 500MB TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD
FRIDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TX SATURDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START BY LATE EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. PREVAILING WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. MORE
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN MONDAY
MORNING PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TX FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 1240 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013


.DISCUSSION...
/See below for aviation discussion/

&&

.AVIATION...
Band of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front from
Sonora to San Angelo to Abilene will spread east to Brady and
Junction this afternoon. IFR to MVFR CIGS and visibilities will
accompany the storms. Rain should move east of San Angelo around 3
PM and east of Abilene by 7 PM...as drier air begins to move in from
the northwest.  Sonora...Brady...and Junction will see occasional
showers and thunderstorms into Sunday.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2013/




.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. 11 AM TEMPERATURES ARE UP TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST...AS CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN COLD FRONT FROM OZONA TO
SAN ANGELO TO COLEMAN CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. REDUCED
HIGHS TODAY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ACCORDINGLY. MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO
BE URBAN FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.


04
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013/

DISCUSSION...
Please see aviation below for discussion.

AVIATION...
Look for very challenging flight weather conditions across West
Central Texas during the next 24 hours. Ceilings in the MVFR range
and Thunderstorms will be the primary concerns today. Overnight
tonight, the primary concern will be ceilings. I believe MVFR
ceilings will end across the Big Country and Concho Valley by 06Z.
However, I expect MVFR ceilings to linger elsewhere overnight.

Huber

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013/

SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight

I`m expecting showers and thunderstorms to bring rain to West
central Texas during the next 24 hours. Everything has come
together; we have low-level moisture, instability, and lift. If most
of West Central Texas doesn`t receive good rainfall today and
tonight, we`re going to miss a really great opportunity.
Precipitable water values from the GFS increase to around 2 inches
by this afternoon. So, some thunderstorms may produce locally heavy
rainfall. The main thunderstorm threats will be heavy rainfall and
deadly lightning. Some areas may receive one half to one inch of
rain today, while a few locations may have up to two inches today.
I`m expecting convection to be along and ahead of the cold front.
I`m expect the front to move into our northwest Big Country counties
by mid morning; this timing fits well with the latest RUC and the
06Z NAM. I`m thinking the best rain chances today will be across the
central and eastern Big Country and most of the Heartland; that`s
where the deeper moisture will be. As the front shifts slowly
southeast, I expect the better rain chances to shift to mainly our
Northwest Hill Country counties overnight tonight. As for
temperatures, numbers close to guidance look good.

Huber

LONG TERM...
Sunday through Saturday...

A steady warm up can be expected next week, with a possible strong
cold front by next weekend. The cold front that will move through
West Central Texas today, will be south of the area Sunday morning.
The majority of the convection will be south of the area, but
lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible across mainly
the southern and eastern counties. I have included slight chance to
chance PoPs, with most of the convection ending by 18z. Highs on
Sunday will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while
overnight lows drop into the lower to mid 60s.

A steady warm up is forecast through much of the week. Above normal
temperatures are forecast with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
while overnight lows drop into the 60s. Our next weather player will
be a potent upper level trough that is forecast to be near the Four
Corners region by late Thursday, then swing across the Southern
Plains Saturday. This will drive a fairly strong cold front through
the area on Saturday. For now, I have trended temperatures down and
introduced slight chance PoPs across parts of the area. These may
need to be increased in the near future if the current model trends
continue. Below normal temperatures can be expected for the
remainder of next weekend and into the early part of following week.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  59  80  62  87 /  90  60  20   5   5
San Angelo  78  61  81  62  89 /  80  60  20  10   5
Junction  85  66  80  63  86 /  80  80  50  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/99









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 1112 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR HIGHS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. 11 AM TEMPERATURES ARE UP TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST...AS CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN COLD FRONT FROM OZONA TO
SAN ANGELO TO COLEMAN CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. REDUCED
HIGHS TODAY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ACCORDINGLY. MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO
BE URBAN FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.


04
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013/

DISCUSSION...
Please see aviation below for discussion.

AVIATION...
Look for very challenging flight weather conditions across West
Central Texas during the next 24 hours. Ceilings in the MVFR range
and Thunderstorms will be the primary concerns today. Overnight
tonight, the primary concern will be ceilings. I believe MVFR
ceilings will end across the Big Country and Concho Valley by 06Z.
However, I expect MVFR ceilings to linger elsewhere overnight.

Huber

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013/

SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight

I`m expecting showers and thunderstorms to bring rain to West
central Texas during the next 24 hours. Everything has come
together; we have low-level moisture, instability, and lift. If most
of West Central Texas doesn`t receive good rainfall today and
tonight, we`re going to miss a really great opportunity.
Precipitable water values from the GFS increase to around 2 inches
by this afternoon. So, some thunderstorms may produce locally heavy
rainfall. The main thunderstorm threats will be heavy rainfall and
deadly lightning. Some areas may receive one half to one inch of
rain today, while a few locations may have up to two inches today.
I`m expecting convection to be along and ahead of the cold front.
I`m expect the front to move into our northwest Big Country counties
by mid morning; this timing fits well with the latest RUC and the
06Z NAM. I`m thinking the best rain chances today will be across the
central and eastern Big Country and most of the Heartland; that`s
where the deeper moisture will be. As the front shifts slowly
southeast, I expect the better rain chances to shift to mainly our
Northwest Hill Country counties overnight tonight. As for
temperatures, numbers close to guidance look good.

Huber

LONG TERM...
Sunday through Saturday...

A steady warm up can be expected next week, with a possible strong
cold front by next weekend. The cold front that will move through
West Central Texas today, will be south of the area Sunday morning.
The majority of the convection will be south of the area, but
lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible across mainly
the southern and eastern counties. I have included slight chance to
chance PoPs, with most of the convection ending by 18z. Highs on
Sunday will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while
overnight lows drop into the lower to mid 60s.

A steady warm up is forecast through much of the week. Above normal
temperatures are forecast with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
while overnight lows drop into the 60s. Our next weather player will
be a potent upper level trough that is forecast to be near the Four
Corners region by late Thursday, then swing across the Southern
Plains Saturday. This will drive a fairly strong cold front through
the area on Saturday. For now, I have trended temperatures down and
introduced slight chance PoPs across parts of the area. These may
need to be increased in the near future if the current model trends
continue. Below normal temperatures can be expected for the
remainder of next weekend and into the early part of following week.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  59  80  62  87 /  90  60  20   5   5
San Angelo  78  61  81  62  89 /  80  60  20  10   5
Junction  85  66  80  63  86 /  80  80  50  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/99







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 645 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...
Please see aviation below for discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
Look for very challenging flight weather conditions across West
Central Texas during the next 24 hours. Ceilings in the MVFR range
and Thunderstorms will be the primary concerns today. Overnight
tonight, the primary concern will be ceilings. I believe MVFR
ceilings will end across the Big Country and Concho Valley by 06Z.
However, I expect MVFR ceilings to linger elsewhere overnight.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013/

SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight

I`m expecting showers and thunderstorms to bring rain to West
central Texas during the next 24 hours. Everything has come
together; we have low-level moisture, instability, and lift. If most
of West Central Texas doesn`t receive good rainfall today and
tonight, we`re going to miss a really great opportunity.
Precipitable water values from the GFS increase to around 2 inches
by this afternoon. So, some thunderstorms may produce locally heavy
rainfall. The main thunderstorm threats will be heavy rainfall and
deadly lightning. Some areas may receive one half to one inch of
rain today, while a few locations may have up to two inches today.
I`m expecting convection to be along and ahead of the cold front.
I`m expect the front to move into our northwest Big Country counties
by mid morning; this timing fits well with the latest RUC and the
06Z NAM. I`m thinking the best rain chances today will be across the
central and eastern Big Country and most of the Heartland; that`s
where the deeper moisture will be. As the front shifts slowly
southeast, I expect the better rain chances to shift to mainly our
Northwest Hill Country counties overnight tonight. As for
temperatures, numbers close to guidance look good.

Huber

LONG TERM...
Sunday through Saturday...

A steady warm up can be expected next week, with a possible strong
cold front by next weekend. The cold front that will move through
West Central Texas today, will be south of the area Sunday morning.
The majority of the convection will be south of the area, but
lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible across mainly
the southern and eastern counties. I have included slight chance to
chance PoPs, with most of the convection ending by 18z. Highs on
Sunday will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while
overnight lows drop into the lower to mid 60s.

A steady warm up is forecast through much of the week. Above normal
temperatures are forecast with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
while overnight lows drop into the 60s. Our next weather player will
be a potent upper level trough that is forecast to be near the Four
Corners region by late Thursday, then swing across the Southern
Plains Saturday. This will drive a fairly strong cold front through
the area on Saturday. For now, I have trended temperatures down and
introduced slight chance PoPs across parts of the area. These may
need to be increased in the near future if the current model trends
continue. Below normal temperatures can be expected for the
remainder of next weekend and into the early part of following week.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  59  80  62  87 /  90  60  20   5   5
San Angelo  83  61  81  62  89 /  80  60  20  10   5
Junction  85  66  80  63  86 /  80  80  50  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber/Daniels








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight

I`m expecting showers and thunderstorms to bring rain to West
central Texas during the next 24 hours. Everything has come
together; we have low-level moisture, instability, and lift. If most
of West Central Texas doesn`t receive good rainfall today and
tonight, we`re going to miss a really great opportunity.
Precipitable water values from the GFS increase to around 2 inches
by this afternoon. So, some thunderstorms may produce locally heavy
rainfall. The main thunderstorm threats will be heavy rainfall and
deadly lightning. Some areas may receive one half to one inch of
rain today, while a few locations may have up to two inches today.
I`m expecting convection to be along and ahead of the cold front.
I`m expect the front to move into our northwest Big Country counties
by mid morning; this timing fits well with the latest RUC and the
06Z NAM. I`m thinking the best rain chances today will be across the
central and eastern Big Country and most of the Heartland; that`s
where the deeper moisture will be. As the front shifts slowly
southeast, I expect the better rain chances to shift to mainly our
Northwest Hill Country counties overnight tonight. As for
temperatures, numbers close to guidance look good.

Huber

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Saturday...

A steady warm up can be expected next week, with a possible strong
cold front by next weekend. The cold front that will move through
West Central Texas today, will be south of the area Sunday morning.
The majority of the convection will be south of the area, but
lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible across mainly
the southern and eastern counties. I have included slight chance to
chance PoPs, with most of the convection ending by 18z. Highs on
Sunday will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while
overnight lows drop into the lower to mid 60s.

A steady warm up is forecast through much of the week. Above normal
temperatures are forecast with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
while overnight lows drop into the 60s. Our next weather player will
be a potent upper level trough that is forecast to be near the Four
Corners region by late Thursday, then swing across the Southern
Plains Saturday. This will drive a fairly strong cold front through
the area on Saturday. For now, I have trended temperatures down and
introduced slight chance PoPs across parts of the area. These may
need to be increased in the near future if the current model trends
continue. Below normal temperatures can be expected for the
remainder of next weekend and into the early part of following week.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  59  80  62  87 /  90  60  20   5   5
San Angelo  83  61  81  62  89 /  80  60  20  10   5
Junction  85  66  80  63  86 /  80  80  50  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber/Daniels






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SEATTLE WA

 425 PM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...DAMAGING WINDSTORM FOR PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS WOULD BRING A
WINDSTORM TO PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT...WITH A MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK BRINGING A PARTICULARLY STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDSTORM. A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THEN A DRIER PERIOD IS POSSIBLE AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...BOMBOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...MEANING THAT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS INTENSIFYING AT AN
EXCEPTIONAL RATE. THIS IS TAKING PLACE IN THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 140-150 KT JET AT 300 MB STRETCHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. INDEED...SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN RAPIDLY COOLING AND EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER. AT 20Z...A SHIP REPORT NEAR 46.7N 130.4W CAME
IN WITH A PRESSURE OF 979 MB NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEVELOPING
LOW...WHICH IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND FASTER WITH INTENSIFICATION THAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN PROJECTING. FASTER DEVELOPMENT TENDS TO FAVOR A
TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE NAM MODEL...BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE GFS.
BOTTOM LINE IS A LANDFALL LATE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN VANCOUVER
ISLAND AS A FULLY MATURE 970-ISH MB LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY
SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BENT-BACK OCCLUSION...AS SHOWS BY
MODELS. BENT-BACK OCCLUSIONS ARE OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH OUR MORE
POWERFUL WINDSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO BE PARTICULARLY
IMPACTFUL ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER...925 MB WINDS OF
70-80 KT WILL INTERACT WITH COLD ADVECTION (READ GOOD MIXING) TO
POSE THE RISK OF A HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUST ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN COAST NEAR CAPE FLATTERY...NEAH BAY
AND LA PUSH. THROUGH THE STRAIT...THE 18Z NAM SHOWS 925 MB WINDS OF
60-65 KT...WHICH SHOULD HIT HARD THE NORTHERN HALF OF WHIDBEY
ISLAND...FIDALGO ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN ISLANDS WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS AND THE I-5
CORRIDOR...THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH SOUTHERLIES PRECEDING
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO OUR NORTH. 18Z GFS-BASED MARINE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR WESTPOINT (AT SEATTLE`S DISCOVERY PARK) SHOWS WINDS
PEAKING THERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT 41 KT...WHILE THE 12Z
NAM-BASED GUIDANCE SHOWS 42 KNOTS AT 1 AM TONIGHT. AM NORMALLY
THINKING OF A FULL-FLEDGED HIGH WIND EVENT IN THE SEATTLE METRO AREA
WHEN THIS NUMBER HITS 40 KT.

THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEPTEMBER WINDSTORM IN RECENT
MEMORY. EVEN BY OUR STORMIER MID-WINTER STANDARDS...THIS WOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WINDSTORM. THE IMPACTS FROM A WINDSTORM OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL ONLY BE EXACERBATED BY THE FACT THAT IT IS OCCURRING
AT AN UNSEASONABLY EARLY TIME IN THE FALL SEASON. DECIDUOUS TREES
ARE STILL FILLED WITH HEALTHY GREEN LEAVES...WHICH WILL ONLY
INCREASE THE FORCE THAT THESE TREES FEEL FROM SUCH STRONG WIND.
WOULD EXPECT QUITE A FEW FOLKS IN THE MORE SEVERELY IMPACTED AREAS
TO BE WITHOUT POWER ON MONDAY MORNING.

IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SOUTHERLIES PRECEDING
THE LOW WOULD NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH...BUT THE WESTERLY SURGE ALONG
THE NORTH COAST AND THROUGH THE STRAIT WOULD LIKELY BE LESS SEVERE.

OF COURSE...THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS STORM WILL BE ABUNDANT
RAINFALL. MODEL QPF FOR THIS EVENING IS A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT WAS
BEING PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...BUT AN ADDITIONAL 2-3+ INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE MOUNTAIN HEADWATERS OF OUR
MAJOR RIVER SYSTEMS. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8000 FEET...BUT THEY WILL COME DOWN
TO 5000 FEET BEHIND TONIGHT`S LOW CENTER. THIS WOULD NOT IMPACT THE
MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASSES...BUT IT WOULD IMPACT PLACES LIKE ARTIST
POINT...WASHINGTON PASS...AND MOUNT RAINIER. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET...SO LATER SHIFT
MAY NEED TO LOWER THE CUTOFF ELEVATION FOR THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE UNSTABLE. MOS
NUMBERS SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER...SO PUT A CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH THE JET
STREAM CUTTING BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FORCING
SOME VERTICAL ASCENT...THUNDER IS NOT A STRETCH.   HANER

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY DIVE SE THROUGH THE PAC NW ON
WED...BRINGING THE COOLEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS FALL AND SHOWERS.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS PASSING ACROSS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A DRIER PERIOD WITH COLDER
NIGHTS WILL BE THE RESULT. WESTERLY FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH AN OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SWING BY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...CHANCE OF RAIN GOES BACK UP NEXT WEEKEND.       HANER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...CONTINUED TODAY.  STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 4 PM TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS RANGE
FROM 3 TO ALMOST 8 INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WERE OVER THE NORTH
CASCADES AND THE OLYMPICS. IN THE LOWLANDS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
WAS THE HARDEST HIT WITH A GAUGE IN THE WILLAPAS 6 MILES SOUTH OF PE
ELL REPORTING 7.3 INCHES WITH NUMEROUS OTHER SITES REPORTING 3 TO
OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN. GENERALLY AROUND 3 INCHES FELL OVER THE
COAST. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HEAVY ENOUGH AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
KEEP MANY RIVERS FROM FALLING FURTHER...AND SOME HAVE BEEN RISING
ALL DAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OVER THE
LOWLANDS. THIS SECOND SHOT OF RAIN WILL KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT GOING
ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT. RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM
IS ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY...THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR
ORTING IN PIERCE COUNTY AND THE NEWAUKUM RIVER IN LEWIS COUNTY. ALL
HAVE FLOOD WARNINGS OUT ON THEM. BEYOND THAT...THE LOWER CHEHALIS
RIVER HAS A THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BOWER

&&

&&

.AVIATION...A 972 MB LOW WILL CROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
WILL GIVE AREAS OF WIND SHEAR AND MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TONIGHT.
STORM WARNINGS ARE UP FOR THE MARINE ZONES WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES OVER THE LAND. THERE IS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG WESTERLY
JET STREAM POINTED INTO THE REGION FOR SO EARLY IN THE FALL. RAIN
MAY BECOME HEAVY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN WA AND THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED.

KSEA...THE WIND WILL INCREASE AS GRADIENTS RISE THIS EVENING...A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT AND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PUGET SOUND AROUND 9 PM. THERE
WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH A WS020/50KT IN THE TAF FORECAST.
HERE IS THE NAM TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION FOR SEATTLE.

&&

.MARINE...STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. A 972
MB LOW WILL CROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT...THE LATEST RUC FORECAST
AS OF 3PM GIVES A +10MB AST-UIL GRADIENT WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN
SOME EARLIER RUC SOLUTIONS BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE A STORM FOR LATE
SEPT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND A
HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES. THE HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO EXPECT COASTAL FLOODING BUT ADD A
THREE FOOT TIDAL ANOMALY TO THE TIDE TABLES TONIGHT FOR THE COAST
AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE COAST...WESTERN STRAIT...OLYMPICS...
     THE NORTH INTERIOR...AND THE EVERETT AND SEATTLE AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TACOMA AREA...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...
     LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT ISLAND AND SAN JUAN COUNTIES.

     HIGH SURF WARNING FOR THE COAST.

     WINTER STORM WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000
     FEET.

PZ...STORM WARNING ALL WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML














AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 313 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WATER VAPOR/RUC COMBO SHOWS UPPER TROUGH WITH DECENT 200-300
MILLIBAR SPEED MAX ON THE EASTERN SIDE. BRUNT OF MAIN VORT LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM NRN MN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS AFTER FROPA. SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO CANADA FROM MN. BAND
OF SHOWERS TO PUSH THROUGH SRN WI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL BE HELPED ALONG BY THE COMBO OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND THE
STRONG JET ACTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH. DECENT
MOISTURE SURGE WITH LOW TO MID 60S DP/S INTO SE IA. HRRR HAS BEEN
LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR SE A BIT LONGER WITH EACH RUN. WILL
HANG ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCES IN THE SE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR A TIME.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE HIGH AND DRY AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. LINGERING 850 COOL POOL
GETS DISPLACED AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES IN THE
AFTERNOON. 925 TEMPS OF 14-16C SET UP FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

A 100 KT WSWLY POLAR JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM THE PACIFIC NW
TO ONTARIO CANADA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER THE ERN USA. AT THE SFC...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM MI TO MO SUN NT THEN MOVE TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY FOR MON AND TUE. ALSO...A STRONG AND OCCLUDED LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA DURING THIS TIME.

SLY FLOW AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING
THIS PERIOD...BEING WEAK FOR SUN NT...BUT INCREASING MON AND TUE.
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE AHEAD OF
THE WEAKENING TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING OUT OF CANADA.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S CELSIUS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S MON
AND LOWER 80S FOR TUE. SUN NT WILL BE COOL DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH AND DECOUPLED WINDS...BUT WITH MILD NIGHTS
THEREAFTER VIA SLY FLOW AND WAA.


.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM

THE EXTENDED MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW ON WED...BUT THEN DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND EVENTUAL LEE SIDE TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS AS IT
MOVES IN THE CENTRAL USA AND GREAT LAKES. THE BEST ESTIMATE AT
THIS TIME IS FOR A SFC TROUGH TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO MN ON THU FOLLOWED BY CYCLOGENESIS NEWD INTO ONTARIO FOR THU
NT INTO SAT. WED WILL BE DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA BUT WARM
ADVECTION PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE WED NT INTO THU NT FOLLOWED BY
FROPA PCPN ANYTIME FROM FRI INTO SAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL COLD FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY SSE WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH QUITE WELL WITH STRONG JET MAX ON EASTERN
SIDE. RAIN PUSHING INTO WRN WI AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CURRENT TIMING IN TAFS LOOK PRETTY
GOOD SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGGY CHANGES THERE...21Z IN KMSN AND
CLOSE TO 00Z AT KMKE. JUST A FEW HOURS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SUNDAY. MOS AND LLVL RH
PROGS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.MARINE...THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
HAS BROUGHT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERATE HIGH WAVES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. WINDS
WILL EASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF
FRONT...BUT 06Z END TIME LOOKS ON TRACK TO ALLOW WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 116 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA/WESTERN MN...THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
CENTRAL KS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A RESPECTABLE 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF
FAIRLY SOLID SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM BEHIND
THE FRONT IN STRONG 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS/MODERATE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS ENERGY WAS BEING STEERED BY A VIGOROUS/DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS EASTERN MT/WY/CO PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS. ALSO NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUBTROPICAL TAP STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. RAP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FALLING ARE IN THE 1.5-2" RANGE OR 200-250
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE...SKIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S...TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES SOME THROUGH THE
DAY...700-300 PV-ADVECTION/850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAIRLY
STRONG. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL AND WRF MODEL OUTPUT...APPEARS THE AREA
WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST
GENERALLY ABOVE 700MB FOR POCKETS OF THUNDER WITHIN THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
MIDDLE 70S...THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PLAN ON THE FRONT AND RAIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MOIST LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE MAIN STORM
TRACK NORTH OVER CENTRAL CANADA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
KEEPS US DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW //AT LEAST
INTO TUESDAY//WHICH WILL HELP DRAW UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S...WARMING INTO THE 70S TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
HANDLING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF
TAKES THE LOW TO NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY FRIDAY EVENING WHICH
WOULD KEEP US WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR
POSSIBLY COMPLETELY DRY WITH A CAP IN PLACE. THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND FAVORS A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION WITH THE LOW WHICH WOULD KEEP
US IN MORE OF A DEFORMATION RAIN SHIELD AND COOLER. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
AND SMALLER-END RAIN PROBABILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
115 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST ACROSS MN/IA...WITH AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ALREADY RAINING AT KRST AT
ISSUANCE...AND WILL BE AT KLSE SHORTLY. NO LIGHTNING SHOWING
UP...EITHER GROUND STROKES OR ALOFT...ALTHOUGH AS WE REACH PEAK
HEATING CANNOT RULE IT OUT EAST AND SOUTH OF KLSE. LEFT OUT OF THE
TAFS...BUT COULD IMPACT THOSE FLYING EAST/SOUTH FROM EITHER
AIRFIELD. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES.
WIND FROM THE SOUTH WITH G30 KTS AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
RAIN SHIELD...WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE
BEHIND IT. FOCUS FOR STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING NORTH WITH THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE THAT KIND OF SPEED
FOR EITHER AIRFIELD. BUT FLIGHTS HEADING NORTH/WEST WILL NEED TO
BE AWARE OF THAT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
SURGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. LAST
CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE
TONIGHT. WINDS DO DIE OFF AND THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE DUE TO THE RAIN. BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
TOO MUCH MIXING OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND A STRATUS/FOG DECK IN THE VALLEY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...MW








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 640 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA/WESTERN MN...THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
CENTRAL KS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A RESPECTABLE 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF
FAIRLY SOLID SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM BEHIND
THE FRONT IN STRONG 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS/MODERATE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS ENERGY WAS BEING STEERED BY A VIGOROUS/DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS EASTERN MT/WY/CO PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS. ALSO NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUBTROPICAL TAP STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. RAP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FALLING ARE IN THE 1.5-2" RANGE OR 200-250
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE...SKIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S...TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES SOME THROUGH THE
DAY...700-300 PV-ADVECTION/850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAIRLY
STRONG. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL AND WRF MODEL OUTPUT...APPEARS THE AREA
WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST
GENERALLY ABOVE 700MB FOR POCKETS OF THUNDER WITHIN THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
MIDDLE 70S...THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PLAN ON THE FRONT AND RAIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MOIST LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE MAIN STORM
TRACK NORTH OVER CENTRAL CANADA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
KEEPS US DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW //AT LEAST
INTO TUESDAY//WHICH WILL HELP DRAW UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S...WARMING INTO THE 70S TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
HANDLING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF
TAKES THE LOW TO NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY FRIDAY EVENING WHICH
WOULD KEEP US WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR
POSSIBLY COMPLETELY DRY WITH A CAP IN PLACE. THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND FAVORS A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION WITH THE LOW WHICH WOULD KEEP
US IN MORE OF A DEFORMATION RAIN SHIELD AND COOLER. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
AND SMALLER-END RAIN PROBABILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

MULTIPLE CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST...

1. WINDS. GUSTS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
RST...STRONG ENOUGH TO BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THERE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NEEDED AT LSE UNTIL 14Z WHEN
DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO DEVELOP. GUSTS AT BOTH SITES
LOOK TO PICK UP TOWARDS 16-17Z AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN A
CORE OF STRONGER WINDS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MARCHING EAST.
PRESENTLY HAVE GUSTS OF 25-30 KT...BUT THESE COULD BE HIGHER IF
TEMPERATURES WARM MORE THAN FORECAST. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTH
TO WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES BETWEEN 20-23Z. GUSTS AND SPEEDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AIDED EVEN
FURTHER IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

2. IMPACT FROM BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG/BEHIND COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS
LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-18Z AND EXIST BY
21-23Z. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY
TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR...ESPECIALLY AT RST...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS
LOWERED A LOT ABOUT THEM IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...THEREFORE THE
TSRA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE TAFS. PLAN ON CEILINGS TO CLIMB
BACK UP TO VFR DURING THE EVENING AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN.

3. POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT LSE. RAINFALL TODAY
COMBINED WITH CLEARING IN THE EVENING...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WITHIN THE VALLEYS COULD ALLOW FOR FOG
FORMATION. HOWEVER...DEPTH/TIMING OF THE LIGHT WINDS AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE IN RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE OF
MENTIONING FOG IN THE LSE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 312 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA/WESTERN MN...THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
CENTRAL KS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A RESPECTABLE 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF
FAIRLY SOLID SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM BEHIND
THE FRONT IN STRONG 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS/MODERATE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS ENERGY WAS BEING STEERED BY A VIGOROUS/DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS EASTERN MT/WY/CO PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS. ALSO NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUBTROPICAL TAP STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. RAP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FALLING ARE IN THE 1.5-2" RANGE OR 200-250
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE...SKIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S...TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES SOME THROUGH THE
DAY...700-300 PV-ADVECTION/850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAIRLY
STRONG. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL AND WRF MODEL OUTPUT...APPEARS THE AREA
WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST
GENERALLY ABOVE 700MB FOR POCKETS OF THUNDER WITHIN THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
MIDDLE 70S...THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

PLAN ON THE FRONT AND RAIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MOIST LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE MAIN STORM
TRACK NORTH OVER CENTRAL CANADA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
KEEPS US DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW //AT LEAST
INTO TUESDAY//WHICH WILL HELP DRAW UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S...WARMING INTO THE 70S TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
HANDLING OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF
TAKES THE LOW TO NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY FRIDAY EVENING WHICH
WOULD KEEP US WARMER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR
POSSIBLY COMPLETELY DRY WITH A CAP IN PLACE. THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND FAVORS A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION WITH THE LOW WHICH WOULD KEEP
US IN MORE OF A DEFORMATION RAIN SHIELD AND COOLER. FOR NOW...WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
AND SMALLER-END RAIN PROBABILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1100 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

LLWS A CONCERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 35 TO 45 KTS OF WIND
IN THE 1-2 KFT LAYER FOR BOTH KRST/KLSE...PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
MIXING WILL IMPROVE THESE CONDITIONS EARLY ON SAT. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION IN TAFS.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT...LIKELY
PASSING KRST BETWEEN 20-22Z AND KLSE 21-23Z. THE BULK OF THE FORCING
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG AND POST THE FRONT...WITH NO
INSTABILTY TO TAP INTO. STILL...ENOUGH MECHANICAL LIFTING VIA THE
FRONT THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT A LOWERING OF
CIGS WITH THE ADVENT OF THE FRONT...AND A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POST
THE BOUNDARY. ANY TS THREAT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND AROUND THE
FRONT. QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN CLEARING FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH SKC CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

ALONG WITH THE LLWS TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
STAYS TIGHT...AND THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE EXPECTED RAINS BRINGS THOUGHTS OF FOG
POTENTIAL FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE SFC HIGH CENTER
IS PROGGED TO BE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE NEAR SFC
WINDS STAY BREEZY. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE ADVECTED IN POST THE
FRONT. THINK THE FOG THREAT IS MINIMAL AT KRST...BUT RIVER VALLEY
FOG AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT KLSE WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK














AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 135 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND CAPITAL
REGION...MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A MOIST...LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW
ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE EAST...THEY
SEEM TO GRADUALLY ERODE. ADDITIONAL...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE A BIT
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THESE RECENT TRENDS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
INDICATED FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY W. ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...WHICH COULD EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
RECENT HRRR INDICATES THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST S AND E
THESE AREAS...AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT OUT MENTION OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE.

GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHT/S...THE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG FORMATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS AS WELL. STILL EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG...ESP AROUND DAYBREAK WITHIN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT
AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN RECENT
MORNING/S.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
COULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST AND THE LOW SPINNING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY. AS FOR THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...THE
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING WELL
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATED BOUNDARY. THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING SOME
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RUN WITH A 20
POP IN THIS AREA WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF DAY. HIGHS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMING THAN MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST MID WEEK. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD MARKS THEN END OF OUR DRY WEATHER.  A COLD FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH DRY AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER...
WILL DOMINATE THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW YORK
STATE FROM THE WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE DELIGHTFUL...
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND THE 70S.  BY SUNDAY...
HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL HAVE BACKED DOWN TO MAINLY MID 50S IN THE HIGH
PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES DOWN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S....EXCEPT MOST READINGS WILL STAY UP IN THE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NORMAL HIGHS
AND LOWS IN ALBANY FOR EARLY OCTOBER ARE MID 60S AND MID 40S...
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO FOG PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STATIONARY
FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST HAVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY PREVENTED FOG
FORMATION EXCEPT AT KGFL AND KPSF. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ON THE LEADING EDGE AS THEY BUMP UP
AGAINST THE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. FOR THE TAFS HAV
FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT 10Z AT KALB AND KPOU.
EVEN WHEN FOG DOES DEVELOP EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BOUNCE BTWN
MVFR AND IFR/LIFR CONDS UNTIL LATE AT NIGHT AND THEN IFR/LIFR AT
KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL ARND 13Z.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LATER THIS MORNING...GENERALLY BY 13Z EXPECT
SKC CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY SOME CU DEVELOPMENT MID DAY WITH FEW-
SCT040. FOG IS THEN EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY EVENING FOR KGFL AND KPSF.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. EACH MORNING THERE WILL BE HEAVY DEW
FORMATION...SO THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS THIS WEEK AS THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 128 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND CAPITAL
REGION...MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A MOIST...LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW
ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE EAST...THEY
SEEM TO GRADUALLY ERODE. ADDITIONAL...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE A BIT
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THESE RECENT TRENDS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
INDICATED FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY W. ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...WHICH COULD EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
RECENT HRRR INDICATES THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST S AND E
THESE AREAS...AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT OUT MENTION OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE.

GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHT/S...THE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG FORMATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS AS WELL. STILL EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG...ESP AROUND DAYBREAK WITHIN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT
AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN RECENT
MORNING/S.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
COULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST AND THE LOW SPINNING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY. AS FOR THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...THE
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING WELL
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATED BOUNDARY. THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING SOME
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RUN WITH A 20
POP IN THIS AREA WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF DAY. HIGHS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMING THAN MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST MID WEEK. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD MARKS THEN END OF OUR DRY WEATHER.  A COLD FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH DRY AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER...
WILL DOMINATE THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW YORK
STATE FROM THE WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE DELIGHTFUL...
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND THE 70S.  BY SUNDAY...
HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL HAVE BACKED DOWN TO MAINLY MID 50S IN THE HIGH
PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES DOWN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S....EXCEPT MOST READINGS WILL STAY UP IN THE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NORMAL HIGHS
AND LOWS IN ALBANY FOR EARLY OCTOBER ARE MID 60S AND MID 40S...
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO FOG PRODUCING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS
OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STATIONARY
FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST HAVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY PREVENTED FOG
FORMATION. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS ON THE LEADING EDGE AS THEY BUMP UP AGAINST THE
RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. FOR THE TAFS HAV DELAYED ONSET OF
FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL 08Z AND UNTIL 10Z AT KALB AND KPOU.
EVEN WHEN FOG DOES DEVELOP EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BOUNCE BTWN
MVFR AND IFR/LIFR CONDS.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LATER THIS MORNING GENERALLY BY 13Z EXPECT SKC
CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY SOME CU DEVELOPMENT MID DAY WITH FEW-SCT040.
FOG IS THEN EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY EVENING FOR KGFL.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. EACH MORNING THERE WILL BE HEAVY DEW
FORMATION...SO THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS THIS WEEK AS THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 1256 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND CAPITAL
REGION...MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A MOIST...LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW
ASCENDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE EAST...THEY
SEEM TO GRADUALLY ERODE. ADDITIONAL...PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE A BIT
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THESE RECENT TRENDS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
INDICATED FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY W. ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL HAVE TO WATCH LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...WHICH COULD EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY REACHING THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
RECENT HRRR INDICATES THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST S AND E
THESE AREAS...AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT OUT MENTION OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE.

GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHT/S...THE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG FORMATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS AS WELL. STILL EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG...ESP AROUND DAYBREAK WITHIN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT
AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN RECENT
MORNING/S.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
COULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST AND THE LOW SPINNING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY. AS FOR THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...THE
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING WELL
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATED BOUNDARY. THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING SOME
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE RUN WITH A 20
POP IN THIS AREA WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF DAY. HIGHS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMING THAN MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST MID WEEK. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD MARKS THEN END OF OUR DRY WEATHER.  A COLD FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH DRY AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER...
WILL DOMINATE THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW YORK
STATE FROM THE WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE DELIGHTFUL...
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND THE 70S.  BY SUNDAY...
HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL HAVE BACKED DOWN TO MAINLY MID 50S IN THE HIGH
PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES DOWN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S....EXCEPT MOST READINGS WILL STAY UP IN THE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NORMAL HIGHS
AND LOWS IN ALBANY FOR EARLY OCTOBER ARE MID 60S AND MID 40S...
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG. IFR/LIFR VSBY ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...WITH FOG SETTING IN AT KGFL/KPSF AS EARLY
AS 00Z-03Z. FOG WILL LIKELY NOT FORM AT KALB/KPOU UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 07Z-09Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM
AT ALL SITES.

FOG MAY LIFT INTO A STRATUS LAYER BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 12Z-13Z. AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES...ANOTHER DAY
OF CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. EACH MORNING THERE WILL BE HEAVY DEW
FORMATION...SO THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS THIS WEEK AS THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 357 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
322 AM CDT

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS ON THE DOCKET TO KICK OFF OCTOBER WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
ALREADY MOVING EASTWARD WITH PRESSURE FALLS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER IA
INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND IT
APPEARS THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESTRICT ANY LAKE
BREEZE TO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ILLINOIS SHORE. FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH SAT NIGHT DID NOT MAKE IT ALL THAT FAR SOUTH BEFORE STALLING
AND IS WASHING OUT...SO AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT LOOK FOR THE 60F DEWPOINTS LURKING TO OUR SOUTH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MAKE HEADWAY BACK NORTHWARD. GETTING TO BE
THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN STRATUS BECOMES A CONCERN WITH THE LONGER
NIGHTS AND SUCH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH AND GIVEN
THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING AM
CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF STRATUS (FOG?) SPREAD NORTH
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS OF 5-8KT SHOULD FAVOR MIXING
AND MORE OF A STRATUS DECK BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
GRIDS AS WELL...WITH BEST THREAT OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER SOUTHERN
1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE CWA.

STRATUS/FOG LOOKS TO BE SHALLOW AND SHOULD MIX OUT TUESDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE WARMEST STARTS TO
OCTOBER ON RECORD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW 20C 925MB TEMPS
INTO THE AREA WHICH SUPPORTS GOING FORECAST HIGHS OF AT LEAST MID
80S...SO THE OPENING DAY OF OCTOBER WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JULY. THE
RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOOK FAIRLY
SAFE...BUT IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THE SECOND WARMEST OCT 1ST ON
RECORD IN CHICAGO IS "ONLY" 86F WHICH WE MAY NOT BE ALL THAT FAR
FROM.

MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED A BIT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK BACK DOOR
FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT LATEST RUNS OF GEM,
ECMWF, GFS, AND WRF-NAM SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THIS FRONT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY GETTING AN ENHANCEMENT/BOOST FROM THE
RELATIVELY COOL LAKE. WHILE AIRMASS IS NOT PROGGED TO CHANGE
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH ONLY A WEAK SYNOPTIC COOL PUSH BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE
PRONOUNCED TEMP DROP DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
DOWNWARD FROM GOING FORECAST IN THESE AREAS AS LOOKING BACK TO 1979
THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A DAY THAT ORD HAS REACHED 80 IN OCTOBER WITH A
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND AND LAKEFRONT COULD STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH
70F. COULD BE A BIT OF LAKE FOG DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE AS
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IS DISLODGED WEDNESDAY...BUT WATER TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NOT THINKING LAKE FOG WILL BE A HUGE
PROBLEM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON CARVING OUT A DEEP/STRONG TOUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY
PUSH TO ITS EAST TO SEND WEAK BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND PLACING OUR
CWA SOLIDLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FIRST BIG AUTUMN STORM OF
THE YEAR. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BRINGING LEAD
IMPULSE SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE BIG TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURS RESULTING IN OUR FIRST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN THE REGION MAKES IT HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT THINKING
CHANCES LOOK LOWEST THESE PERIODS UNTIL THE LARGE TROUGH EJECTS OUT
AND STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN MAJOR POINTS OF CONTENTION AMONG
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT WITH ALL THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES ALL COMING INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUNS CONFIDENCE IN A SCENARIO SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO THAT HAS INCREASED. TYPICALLY MODELS TEND TO SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS WITH LATER RUNS...SO KEPT POPS
MODEST FOR NOW UNTIL WE GET SOME MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE
60F DEWPOINTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY BECOMING
JUXTAPOSED WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE KINEMATICS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
RESULT IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...TOO EARLY TO SAY WHERE BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH
THIS WEEK FOR SURE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WELL ABOVE THE MODEL BLEND COCKTAIL TEMPS
FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF WE HAVE MORE DRY HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH A
LITTLE SUN THEN 80F WOULD BE VERY ATTAINABLE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN NIGHT TIME LOWS WELL
INTO THE 60S WITH RECORD WARM MINS FOR OCT 5TH (64 RFD/69 CHGO) NOT
OUT OF REACH. IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH
INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY. BEYOND THE HORIZON OF THIS WEEKEND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH A RETURN TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* NONE.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY AT KDPA AND
KGYY. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ALREADY INDICATE VIS FALLING TO AROUND 4SM
AT GYY. IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HOWEVER...SOME GROUND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KDPA...AND THIS COULD REDUCE THE VIS DOWN AROUND 3 SM LATER PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. HOWEVER...I DID BACK OFF ON THE FOG MENTION FOR KRFD.
ALTHOUGH SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE THERE
LATE...THE THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG APPEARS TO BE MUCH LOWER
THAN POINTS FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AS THE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS IS QUITE DRY.

AS FOR THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...IT ALSO APPEARS THAT NO MORE THAN
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THE
THREAT OF FOG OUT OF KORD AND KMDW.

THE FOG THREAT WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED..WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE WIND APPEAR
THAT THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY AT ALL TAF SITES AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND
1,000 FT AGL WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TODAY AS A THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO POTENT LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY
HELP KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE THAT FORMS FROM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS.
AS A RESULT...I HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE MENTION OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH LOW SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
356 AM CDT

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO A
POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN TODAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY...WITH
WINDS LIKELY REACHING CLOSE TO 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS BE SLOWER TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK THERE WAY
DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AS THEY VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

BY TUESDAY...STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL REACH
THE SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE SPEEDS WILL BE
NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
WINDS BEING OFFSHORE...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE UNDER 4 FT...SO WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABATING WINDS.

THINGS BECOME INTERESTING LATER THIS WEEK THOUGH AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DECENT
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE HAS BEEN...AND
CONTINUES TO BE...A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET
THAT A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. IF THIS DOES INDEED OCCUR...THERE COULD BE
A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SOME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2013

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday

Areas of fog (locally dense) and low stratus clouds below 500 feet
were se of a Champaign to Taylorville line early this morning and
have been drifting very slowly nw. The dense fog with vsbys of
1/4-1/2 miles was at Terre Haute, Mattoon, Effingham and Robinson.
HRRR model captured the low clouds and fog fairly well this
morning and will continue it over our southeast counties this
morning and gradually breaking up the low clouds in southeast IL
this afternoon. Dense fog does not appear widespread enough so
will hold off on a dense fog advisory. A frontal boundary lingered
over central parts of IN/MO and southeast IL and moist dewpoints
in the upper 50s and lower 60s near the front along with light
south to calm winds was helping fog develop during the night.
Meanwhile much drier air over central and nw IL with dewpoints in
the 40s under clear skies thanks to weak 1017 mb high pressure
over lower MI and ridging sw across nw IL/MO.

Short range models are in good agreement through mid week as upper
level heights rise over IL next few days with temperatures warming
into the upper 70s today and into the lower to middle 80s Tuesday
& Wednesday and upper 70s and lower 80s Thursday & Friday. A cold
front over the northern plains moves east across the great lakes
region Tue and passes north of central IL, so staying dry and mild.
A disturbance lifts northward across the MS valley overnight Wednesday
night and Thursday bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms
especially on Thursday. Models have trended lower with rain chances
Thursday night and Friday morning but increase again Friday
afternoon and Friday night as a cold front approaches.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Monday

00Z GEM and GFS models are similiar in bringing a stronger cold
front east across IL Saturday morning while ECMWF model is faster
with cold front on Friday night. With strong upper level trof
digging over the central plains late this week, leaning on the
slower model solution with cold frontal passage Saturday morning.
Trended warmer with temperatures Friday/Friday night and in
eastern IL Saturday and also lingered chances of showers and
thunderstorms into Saturday especially eastern IL. Much cooler air
arrives later Saturday into Sunday with dry conditions returning
by Sunday & Monday with upper level trof over the eastern states.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

Fog and low stratus will be the main concerns overnight,
especially for the SE terminal sites of CMI/DEC, and possibly BMI. The
stratus and fog in the far SE have been slowly expanding to the
NW, and are expect to continue. The latest HRRR model has the fog
covering much of the SE half of the area, including BMI and very
close to SPI. We included tempos for 1/4sm dense fog and VLIFR 100ft
stratus from 11z-13z at CMI/DEC/BMI for now, with a tempo for 1sm
br at SPI.

When the overnight stratus clears out by 16z or so, skies will be
sunny with winds becoming south and increasing to 10-12kt,
especially west of BMI. Winds will decouple again around sunset
Monday evening, and become more SW.

Shimon

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1232 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
825 PM CDT

FOR EVENING UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROVIDING
QUICK COOL-OFF AFTER SUNSET IN DRY AIR MASS. GOING OVERNIGHT MINS
40-45 AWAY FROM THE CITY AND UPPER 40S/MID 50S IN THE CITY APPEAR
REASONABLE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO
MATCH FASTER EVENING DROP-OFF.

PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER IN LOWEST 100 FT OR SO AND 00Z DVN/ILX SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAIRLY DRY AIR THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS FOG SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW AND EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT FOG ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT

PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE BUT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS WITH LIGHT WINDS....CLEAR
SKIES...AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE.
DID NOT MAKE BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS MIN T FORECAST BUT DID TWEAK
DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT IN TYPICALLY COLDER OUTLYING AREAS TO OR
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO
AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND....BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THIS EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF THE HEART OF THE CHICAGO METRO. THIS IS
DESPITE OBJECTIVE AND MOS GUIDANCE NOT BEING BULLISH ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT. CONSIDERING THAT EVEN AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL IL THAT
MISSED OUT ON MUCH OF THE RAIN LAST NIGHT SAW FOG THIS
MORNING...FELT COMFORTABLE IN ADDING PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE TO PERMIT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. AFTER THE CHILLY START TO THE DAY...STRONG WAA/850 MB
TEMPS WARMING TO THE MID TEENS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO THE HIGH
TEENS/WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID AFTERNOON WARM-UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. BASICALLY MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WAS WELL SUPPORTED BY UPPER AIR
CLIMO...FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...EXCEPT A BIT
COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT. LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND VERY WARM THERMAL PROFILES WILL RESULT IN LOWS
10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT DESPITE CLEAR SKIES.

TUESDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL YIELD
GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 30 MPH AT
PEAK MIXING. FURTHER MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF OCTOBER TO HAVE TEMPERATURES THAT
WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR JULY. SOME CONCERN THAT MODEL THERMAL PROFILES
ARE EVEN A BIT TOO WARM/IE. THE NAM WITH +20 (!) AT 850MB/BUT MID TO
HIGH TEENS AT 850 MB AND LOW 20S AT 925 MB IS STILL OFF THE CHARTS
FOR OCTOBER UPPER AIR CLIMO. THUS BUMPED UP HIGHS TO SOLIDLY MID 80S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. IN FACT...ONE OF THE TOP CIPS ANALOG MATCHES FOR
850 MB TEMPS ON TUESDAY IS OCTOBER 5TH 1997...WHEN A RECORD HIGH FOR
THE DATE OF 88 DEGREES WAS SET IN CHICAGO. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S...SO DESPITE THE SUMMERY
TEMPS...NO ISSUES WITH HUMIDITY. THE DRY...WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE VARIES FROM A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT ALA THE 12Z GFS TO SIMPLY A WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS BACK OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY...LAKE
COOLING IS FAVORED AND THERMAL PROFILES NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
TUESDAY...SO MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW-MID 80S...WITH
UPPER 70S ALONG THE LAKE. IF THE DAY STARTS OUT WITH ONSHORE WINDS
AS ON THE CURRENT GFS...WILL LIKELY NEED TO LOWER LAKEFRONT TEMPS
SOME.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD AND TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH APPROACH OF
STRONG UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD
AND HOPEFULLY MODELS CAN BEGIN TO HONE IN BETTER ON DETAILS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL SOLUTIONS TODAY OFFER UP THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE
OR MORE FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE REGION IN THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY AGREEMENT IN A
STRONG COLD FRONT HAVING SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA BY SOMETIME SATURDAY
AND BEHIND IT THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS DIP TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW 0C.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT COULD DIP INTO THE 30S IN SOME
AREAS...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CRACK 60 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY.

PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...PWATS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD OCCUR DEPENDING ON HOW THE SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES
PROGRESS. SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS TODAY WOULD EVEN BE
SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...VERY LOW UNTIL SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY.

RC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* NONE.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY AT KDPA AND
KGYY. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ALREADY INDICATE VIS FALLING TO AROUND 4SM
AT GYY. IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HOWEVER...SOME GROUND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KDPA...AND THIS COULD REDUCE THE VIS DOWN AROUND 3 SM LATER PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. HOWEVER...I DID BACK OFF ON THE FOG MENTION FOR KRFD.
ALTHOUGH SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE THERE
LATE...THE THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG APPEARS TO BE MUCH LOWER
THAN POINTS FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AS THE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS IS QUITE DRY.

AS FOR THE CHICAGO TERMINALS...IT ALSO APPEARS THAT NO MORE THAN
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THE
THREAT OF FOG OUT OF KORD AND KMDW.

THE FOG THREAT WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED..WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE WIND APPEAR
THAT THEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY AT ALL TAF SITES AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND
1,000 FT AGL WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TODAY AS A THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO POTENT LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY
HELP KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE THAT FORMS FROM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS.
AS A RESULT...I HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE MENTION OF A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON.


KJB


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH LOW SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
208 PM CDT

THE LOWS COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE IS MOVING OVER THE LAKE.  THIS HAS CAUSED ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE.  THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE WINDS OVER THE LAKE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE AS A LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN MOVES INTO
MANITOBA.  EXPECTING SOUTH WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE TONIGHT AND NORTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.  THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD SO EXPECTING 30 KT GUSTS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  LIGHT WEST WINDS THEN
SET UP AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE
GRADIENT RELAXES.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS EXTREMELY LOW BEGINNING THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
LAKE LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SIMILARITY AT THIS POINT IS A
STRONG SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED...BUT ITS EXACT PATH AND TIMING ARE
COMPLETELY UP IN THE AIR.  ONE MODEL FEATURES THE LOW PASSING OVER
THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE SATURDAY WHILE ANOTHER SUGGESTS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INFLUENCES THE LAKE THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGER LOW
MOVING SOUTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY.  THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW VARIES
BETWEEN 29.2 INCHES AND 29.7 INCHES AS IT MOVES OVER THE LAKE...BUT
THE GFS IS STILL SUGGESTING GALES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1152 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

Low clouds and fog will likely affect areas southeast of
Shelbyville to Mattoon to Paris overnight. Satellite pics confirm
stratus clouds advancing toward Mattoon, with observations showing
fog already well established along the Indiana border, with
Robinson and Lawrenceville vis down to 1/2 mile. We expect those
conditions to expand to the NW due to lingering sfc moisture
behind the departing cold front. Not entirely certain how far to
the NW the fog and stratus will affect, but will watch closely for
any updates to areas of dense fog.

The stratus/fog may help keep low temps up a bit in the SE, so
will keep them at or above guid in the mid 50s tonight, while other
areas that remain clear dip into the 40s. We expanded the warmer
lows a bit farther NW of LWV to account for a larger area of
stratus, and left the rest of the area as is.

Some other minor adjustments were made to the temps/dewpoints, but
the remainder of the grids look reasonable. Updated forecast info
will be available shortly.

Shimon

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

Fog and low stratus will be the main concerns overnight,
especially for the SE terminal sites of CMI/DEC, and possibly BMI. The
stratus and fog in the far SE have been slowly expanding to the
NW, and are expect to continue. The latest HRRR model has the fog
covering much of the SE half of the area, including BMI and very
close to SPI. We included tempos for 1/4sm dense fog and VLIFR 100ft
stratus from 11z-13z at CMI/DEC/BMI for now, with a tempo for 1sm
br at SPI.

When the overnight stratus clears out by 16z or so, skies will be
sunny with winds becoming south and increasing to 10-12kt,
especially west of BMI. Winds will decouple again around sunset
Monday evening, and become more SW.

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 219 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

Models are in general agreement today with generally zonal flow
through the first part of the week and then diverge toward midweek
as differences in timing of energy ejecting from the current Gulf
of Alaska.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Cold front now passing out of forecast area ending precip in
southeast. With general clear/clearing skies this evening and
diminishing winds, residual moisture from today`s rainfall will
likely be sufficient to develop patches and areas of fog beneath
the nocturnal inversion late tonight in the southeast half of
forecast area. Further northwest...a day of sunshine and dry
advection have lowered boundary layer RH and dried any lingering
soil moisture from last night.

Model suite from 12z pretty consistent over next few days with
respect to a gradual warm-up Monday and the steady 850
temperatures around 15C through midweek. Heights climb in advance
of a developing trough over the western U.S. as energy currently in
the northeast Pacific comes ashore. After readings a little above
normal Monday, temperatures should rise generally into the lower to
middle 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday. After tonight`s lows down
into the 40s along and northwest of I-72, developing south winds
should also keep low temperatures around 10 degrees above seasonal
normals Monday and Tuesday Nights.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night through Sunday

Big differences in the models continue to be centered around the
timing of the energy in the northeast Pacific as it crosses the
country next week. Trend has been to slow the progression by 6-12
hours over each of the past few runs of both the GFS and ECMWF.
Though the 29/12z ECMWF has once again sped up the system
indicating the high uncertainty. Until see some consistency in
timing, will continue to trend toward a slower solution. Differences
also remain as to whether the energy is split between several
waves or primarily remains with the main system. ECMWF from 29/00z
suggests that dynamic forcing will proceed the main trough in the
form of a lead short-wave which provides more potential for pcpn
toward the end of the workweek then the 29/12z GFS which retains
the energy back in the main trough.

Impacts on sensible weather include moist southerly flow
developing ahead of the trough Wednesday Night and Thursday. The
increase in boundary layer moisture in combination with the above
normal temperatures are expected to produce CAPE values around 500
J/kg Thursday afternoon and as high as 1000 J/kg on Friday.
Biggest uncertainties with respect to convective coverage revolve
around potential capping and whether boundaries will be present to
assist in breaking any cap.

Associated frontal passage ahead of main trough is currently
progged to slow until Friday Night across forecast area. Will
retain a chance of showers behind the front with forecast 500 mb
temps as low as -20C producing steep low-level lapse rates in the
mid-level trough. Once subsidence moves in behind the trough on
Saturday Night and Sunday, skies should clear.

After mild temperatures ahead of the front Thursday and Friday,
much cooler temperatures will advect into the area behind the
front for the weekend with highs in the 60s Saturday and Sunday and
lows in the 40s expected Saturday Night.

Barker


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 141 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

MADE A FEW UPDATES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SKY COVER...PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY...WEATHER TYPE...AND QPF FORECAST GRIDS. THESE CHANGES
WERE BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WHICH SUGGEST THAT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WITH THEIR EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT AT BEST...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD
EXPERIENCE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT...AS A
DISINTEGRATING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FOG WILL BE
TRICKY TO PREDICT OVERNIGHT AS TO EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY OVERSPREADING
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO PRIMARILY
RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LOSE STRENGTH AS THEY REACH OUR CWA...DYING OUT
AND BECOMING VERY ISOLATED AND LIGHT IN NATURE. AS A RESULT...CUT
BACK ON ANY MENTION OF SCATTERED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

LATEST RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO FASTER THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. NOT A BIG CHANGE...BUT WENT AHEAD AND SPED UP
ISOLATED PRECIP ABOUT AN HOUR TO START AT 21Z /NOW/. ALSO LOADED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE SURE ONGOING FORECAST WAS
MATCHING UP WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DYING FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND WANING. A FEW OF THESE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MAKE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ALONG WITH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS FURTHER EAST. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ARE FOUND THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY OUT AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES STILL MANAGED TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS...DEWPOINTS
ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT LIFTING A TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SHEARING IT OUT AS IT MOVES DEEPER
INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. SOME LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL DRIFT INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND ALSO DIMINISH IN THE FACE OF WEAK
FLOW AT MID LEVELS ON MONDAY AND RISING HEIGHTS THAT NIGHT. GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND FOR WEATHER
DETAILS WITH A STRONGER LEAN THAN NORMAL TOWARD THE NEAR-TERM...HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP13 MODELS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE MUDDLED REMNANTS OF THE FRONT AND
ITS DISSIPATING SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND LINGERING
IN THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL NECESSITATE THE INCLUSION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY
AND QPF WILL AVERAGE BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE ANY SHOWER MANAGE
TO PASS OVER. WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED ELEVATED MOISTURE
CONTENT. DID ADD LIGHT FOG IN THE VALLEYS BOTH NIGHTS SHOULD THE
CLOUDS CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT AND ITS BC BROTHER TO JUMP START THE TD AND
WIND GRIDS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...AND THE CONSALL THEREAFTER. FOR
TEMPERATURES...USED THE OBS DATABASE AS A BASIS FOR THE DIURNAL
CURVE ALONG WITH MODIFIED CONSALL MAX AND MIN TEMPS...ONLY MINOR
TERRAIN ADJUSTMENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS THROUGH FIRST PART OF THE SHORT
TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A ZONAL AND
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE AS THE JET WILL WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FURTHER
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DURING LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
AN INCREASE OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SOME PRECIP
CHANCES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO...THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND 00Z RUN
OF THE EURO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE...BASED
ON THE ALL BLENDS SOLUTION...WILL LIKELY PUT SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR
THURSDAY. THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST COMES INTO PLAY BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND SHIFTS EAST. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS AND EURO ARE ADVERTISING
THE FIRST FALL STRONG COLD FRONT WITH QUITE A COOL SHOT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS BY FRIDAY AGAIN BASED ON THE ALL
MODEL BLEND SOLUTION. IN DEALING WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...BASED ON
THE NEW EURO RUN AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WENT
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS AT THIS
POINT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVING THROUGH
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN THAT IS
EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE LACK OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW ILL
DEFINED THE FRONT IS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
MAKE THE FOG FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOZ AND SME HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED FOG...WITH LOZ SEEING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR VSBY. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...LEFT IN
MENTION OF MVFR FOG FOR LOZ OVERNIGHT...WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FOG
FORECAST FOR SME...BASED ON NOT SO FAVORABLE WIND FLOW. JKL MAY OR
MAY NOT SEE FOG TONIGHT...AND FOG FORMATION WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
FOG IS ABLE TO FORM IN THE VALLEY BELOW THE TAF SITE AND WHETHER OR
NOT A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER OF MOISTURE EXISTS FOR THE FOG TO MOVE UP THE
VALLEY TO THE RIDGETOP. FOR NOW DECIDED TO GO WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF MVFR FOG AT JKL...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAF FROM 9 TO 12Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 1255 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1255 AM UPDATE...MARINE STRATUS AND FOG ARE MOVING ONSHORE
ATTM...AND EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FOG/LOW CLOUD DECK, BRINGING IT INTO HOULTON
AND MILLINOCKET BY DAYBREAK. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER CLEAR AND
CALM NIGHT TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING. SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL STRAY INTO DOWNEAST AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY AND THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH...TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE...MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WASHINGTON
COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY...THOUGH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH A BREEZY W/NW WIND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING CONTINUING DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE
HOWEVER. THEREFOR WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR ALL
TIME PERIODS ALONG WITH GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SOME FOG WILL FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING CREATING IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS/NORCROSS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 549 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE 140 KNOT 250-300 MB
JET DRIVING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE PAC NW WHILE
ANOTHER WOUND UP STORM SYSTEM IS NOTED OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN PLAINS STATES.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY DRIVING A 40-50 KT 8H JET ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...SSW WAA WILL INCREASE...BRINGING 12-14C
850 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN WAA HIGH
CLOUDS...SUNSHINE AND MIXING INTO THE 875-850 MB LAYER SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FCST MIXED LAYER WINDS INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE AS NOTED ON 00Z NAM
SNDGS COULD RESULT IN SSW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO DROPPING TO AROUND 40F
THE RESULTING RH VALUES OF AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL ELEVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO/EHWO AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20-30 MPH OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OVER DOWNSLOPING
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MIXING FROM THE WINDS WILL RESULT
IN POOR RH RECOVERY ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA WHERE MAX RH VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 65-75 PCT. THE
WINDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA AND
PERHAPS CLOSER TO 60F FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

H5-H2 HEIGHTS FEATURE A NEGATIVE PNA TELECONNECTION PATTERN WITH
TROUGHING INTO WESTERN CANADA AND CONUS VIA 160+ KT H3-H2 JET
BLASTING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. LEADING SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH SHOWING UP OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHTNING. WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS UPPER LAKES AS IT MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT TIED TO THE WAVE CROSSES UPR
MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF TROUGH.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD TO AROUND H8 BY AFTN WHILE
IT STILL IS WARM ALOFT ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S
AND LIKELY INTO LOWER 80S FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL CWA. DEEP MIXING
ALLOWS DWPNTS TO CRASH INTO THE 30S AS SHOWN BY EXPLICIT MODEL
DWPNTS. BLENDING THIS WITH MIXED LAYER DWPNTS WOULD INDICATE SOME
DWPNTS BY LATE AFTN OVR WESTERN HALF OF CWA MAY FALL INTO THE UPR
20S. AS IT STANDS NOW...EVEN WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR
DWPNTS...RH VALUES FCST TO COME VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL 25 PCT MARK.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS COMBO OF WARM TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE AFTN AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PEAK GUSTS OVER 30 MPH IN PARTS OF THE WEST AND CNTRL CWA. ALL
TOGETHER WE ARE FIRMLY NEARING CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A PRETTY DRY SEPT IN PARTS OF THE CWA.
BASED ON EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND ON TUESDAY...
WILL ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT. DAYSHIFT CAN TALK TO FIRE
USERS TODAY TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

KIND OF A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS CWA WILL BE BTWN THE INTIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE MAIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH POISED TO MOVE IN
BY LATE WEEK. WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH MOST AREAS MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND AS TUESDAY. RH VALUES
COULD ONCE AGAIN FALL TO NEAR 25 PCT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO BACK SIDE OF TROUGH FM WESTERN ALASKA
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN DEEPENING SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AT 12Z FRIDAY
HAD THE LOW OVER WESTERN KS WHILE THE 29/12Z ECMWF SHOWED THE LOW
OVR UPR MICHIGAN. 00Z ECMWF TRENDING MUCH SLOWER AND NOW LOOKS MUCH
CLOSER TO GFS AS IT SHOWS MAIN LOW OVER EASTERN KS WITH INVERTED
TROUGH INTO UPR LAKES. WE WILL SEE OVER NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHETHER
THIS TREND HOLDS. AT THIS POINT...WPC FAVORS SOLUTION CLOSER TO
GFS/UKMET WITH SFC LOW...BUT EVEN HERE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
THURSDAY...THE UKMET LOOKS SIMILAR TO ECMWF WITH INITIAL PLACEMENT
OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND RESULTING SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. 1000-850MB THERMAL GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF NW WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN WI ON THURSDAY. WOULD THINK THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR
BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85 INTERSECTS
THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SECONDARY AREA OF H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT SETS
UP NORTH OF BOUNDARY THURSDAY MORNING...SO HAVE CARRIED HIGHER
CHANCES ALL THE WAY TO LK SUPERIOR. LIKELY POPS SEEM GOOD OVER AT
LEAST SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND THEN FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS CONSENSUS GRIDS INDICATED.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DETAILS PLAY OUT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WE WILL TAKE OUR BEST SHOT AT IT THOUGH.GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD
SLOWER EJECTION OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW...EXPECT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PART OF THAT TIME
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE. DRY SLOT MAY IMPACT POP/WX
SOMETIME AS WELL...THOUGH TO KNOW EXACTLY WHEN THOUGH. ALSO...BETTER
CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THOSE AREAS
ARE IN VCNTY OF SOME MODEST MLCAPES AND ON THE NOSE OF STRONG SW H85
JET.

EVENTUALLY LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH LIKELY A
DEEPENING TREND TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY WHICH
BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. WINDS SURROUNDING SAID DEEPENING
LOW COULD EASILY BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS FORECAST INDICATES. JUST
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO COMPLETELY WITH ONE SOLUTION. STRONGEST
WINDS WOULD BE FRIDAY IN WARM SECTOR THEN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW-N AND PULL IN THE COLDER AIR
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. EITHER TIME FRAME WINDS COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH
IF NOT HIT ADVY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH GUSTS. AS IT LOOKED
YDY...UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPS INTO UPR LAKES WHICH IMPACTS HOW MUCH LK
ENHANCED/LK EFFECT PRECIP WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALSO DIFFERENCES IN HOW COLD IT GETS IN THE BLYR. LATEST ECMWF
ACTUALLY ENDS UP MORE WRAPPED UP WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO GFS AND
SHOWS ENOUGH COOLING TO PROBABLY HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. NO
MENTION OF SNOW NOW THOUGH. JUST TOO MUCH...YOU GUESSED
IT...UNCERTAINTY.

DOES APPEAR COOLING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS INDICATIONS ARE ANOTHER
LARGER SCALE TROUGH RELOADS OVER WESTERN CONUS BY END OF LONG
TERM...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO CNTRL CONUS INCLUDING UPR
LAKES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM NO DOUBT WILL BE LEADING THE CHARGE WITH
THAT UPPER TROUGH...SO PATTERN MAY TURN ACTIVE AGAIN BEYOND NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LLWS IS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SW WINDS CONTINUE ABOVE
THE DECOUPLED SFC LAYER. WILL GET GUSTY AT ALL SITES MON THROUGH MON
EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS
TODAY WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WED AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU INTO
FRI. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN E-SE WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND STRENGTHENING NE WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE WRN PART
OF THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 443 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A 130 KNOT 250-300 MB JET INTO
THE PAC NW AS A TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE FROM BC. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS
WERE RISING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES IN THE
WEAK OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH INTO NE ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SW WINDS
WERE INCREASING AS SFC RIDGE FROM NRN LOWER MI TO SE KS GRADUALLY
SLIDES TO THE SE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST WHILE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AND ASSOC MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LAKE MI WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDED
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING.

MONDAY...SW WAA WILL INCREASE...PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 12C TO
14C RANGE. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...PER 600-400 MB RH
FCST...SUNSHINE AND MIXING INTO THE 875-850 MB LAYER SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FCST MIXED LAYER WINDS INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS
ALSO DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S RESULTING IN RH VALUES OF AROUND 35
PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER RISKS WILL INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

H5-H2 HEIGHTS FEATURE A NEGATIVE PNA TELECONNECTION PATTERN WITH
TROUGHING INTO WESTERN CANADA AND CONUS VIA 160+ KT H3-H2 JET
BLASTING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. LEADING SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH SHOWING UP OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHTNING. WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS UPPER LAKES AS IT MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT TIED TO THE WAVE CROSSES UPR
MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF TROUGH.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD TO AROUND H8 BY AFTN WHILE
IT STILL IS WARM ALOFT ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S
AND LIKELY INTO LOWER 80S FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL CWA. DEEP MIXING
ALLOWS DWPNTS TO CRASH INTO THE 30S AS SHOWN BY EXPLICIT MODEL
DWPNTS. BLENDING THIS WITH MIXED LAYER DWPNTS WOULD INDICATE SOME
DWPNTS BY LATE AFTN OVR WESTERN HALF OF CWA MAY FALL INTO THE UPR
20S. AS IT STANDS NOW...EVEN WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR
DWPNTS...RH VALUES FCST TO COME VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL 25 PCT MARK.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS COMBO OF WARM TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE AFTN AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PEAK GUSTS OVER 30 MPH IN PARTS OF THE WEST AND CNTRL CWA. ALL
TOGETHER WE ARE FIRMLY NEARING CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A PRETTY DRY SEPT IN PARTS OF THE CWA.
BASED ON EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND ON TUESDAY...
WILL ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT. DAYSHIFT CAN TALK TO FIRE
USERS TODAY TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

KIND OF A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS CWA WILL BE BTWN THE INTIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE MAIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH POISED TO MOVE IN
BY LATE WEEK. WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH MOST AREAS MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND AS TUESDAY. RH VALUES
COULD ONCE AGAIN FALL TO NEAR 25 PCT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO BACK SIDE OF TROUGH FM WESTERN ALASKA
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN DEEPENING SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AT 12Z FRIDAY
HAD THE LOW OVER WESTERN KS WHILE THE 29/12Z ECMWF SHOWED THE LOW
OVR UPR MICHIGAN. 00Z ECMWF TRENDING MUCH SLOWER AND NOW LOOKS MUCH
CLOSER TO GFS AS IT SHOWS MAIN LOW OVER EASTERN KS WITH INVERTED
TROUGH INTO UPR LAKES. WE WILL SEE OVER NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHETHER
THIS TREND HOLDS. AT THIS POINT...WPC FAVORS SOLUTION CLOSER TO
GFS/UKMET WITH SFC LOW...BUT EVEN HERE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
THURSDAY...THE UKMET LOOKS SIMILAR TO ECMWF WITH INITIAL PLACEMENT
OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND RESULTING SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. 1000-850MB THERMAL GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF NW WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN WI ON THURSDAY. WOULD THINK THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR
BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85 INTERSECTS
THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SECONDARY AREA OF H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT SETS
UP NORTH OF BOUNDARY THURSDAY MORNING...SO HAVE CARRIED HIGHER
CHANCES ALL THE WAY TO LK SUPERIOR. LIKELY POPS SEEM GOOD OVER AT
LEAST SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND THEN FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS CONSENSUS GRIDS INDICATED.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DETAILS PLAY OUT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WE WILL TAKE OUR BEST SHOT AT IT THOUGH.GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD
SLOWER EJECTION OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW...EXPECT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PART OF THAT TIME
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE. DRY SLOT MAY IMPACT POP/WX
SOMETIME AS WELL...THOUGH TO KNOW EXACTLY WHEN THOUGH. ALSO...BETTER
CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THOSE AREAS
ARE IN VCNTY OF SOME MODEST MLCAPES AND ON THE NOSE OF STRONG SW H85
JET.

EVENTUALLY LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH LIKELY A
DEEPENING TREND TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY WHICH
BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. WINDS SURROUNDING SAID DEEPENING
LOW COULD EASILY BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS FORECAST INDICATES. JUST
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO COMPLETELY WITH ONE SOLUTION. STRONGEST
WINDS WOULD BE FRIDAY IN WARM SECTOR THEN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW-N AND PULL IN THE COLDER AIR
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. EITHER TIME FRAME WINDS COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH
IF NOT HIT ADVY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH GUSTS. AS IT LOOKED
YDY...UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPS INTO UPR LAKES WHICH IMPACTS HOW MUCH LK
ENHANCED/LK EFFECT PRECIP WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALSO DIFFERENCES IN HOW COLD IT GETS IN THE BLYR. LATEST ECMWF
ACTUALLY ENDS UP MORE WRAPPED UP WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO GFS AND
SHOWS ENOUGH COOLING TO PROBABLY HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. NO
MENTION OF SNOW NOW THOUGH. JUST TOO MUCH...YOU GUESSED
IT...UNCERTAINTY.

DOES APPEAR COOLING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS INDICATIONS ARE ANOTHER
LARGER SCALE TROUGH RELOADS OVER WESTERN CONUS BY END OF LONG
TERM...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO CNTRL CONUS INCLUDING UPR
LAKES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM NO DOUBT WILL BE LEADING THE CHARGE WITH
THAT UPPER TROUGH...SO PATTERN MAY TURN ACTIVE AGAIN BEYOND NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LLWS IS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SW WINDS CONTINUE ABOVE
THE DECOUPLED SFC LAYER. WILL GET GUSTY AT ALL SITES MON THROUGH MON
EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
IN THE WIND FORECAST DROPS OFF BY LATE THIS WEEK AS MODELS OFFER
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 335 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY`S WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE SOUTHEAST.  CONSIDERABLE LAG IN THE DEGREE OF POST-FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL DRYING LEAVING AN ENVIRONMENT PRIME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE FRONT FACE OF A GRADUALLY
ENCROACHING SURFACE RIDGE.  THE EARLIER CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER
DRYING TENDING TO FAVOR A DENSE FOG COMPONENT UNDER CONTINUED NEAR
SURFACE SATURATION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  POINTS TO THE SOUTH
STILL CARRYING JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT FLOW AND MOISTURE QUALITY TO
SUPPORT MORE STRATUS.  IN BOTH CASES...SUSPECT IT WILL REQUIRE A
GOOD PART OF THE POST-DAYBREAK MORNING PERIOD TO MIX OUT/LIFT THIS
MOISTURE...AS NOTED PER LATEST RUC GUIDANCE.

VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SETTLES TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE RIDGING SLIPPING EAST.  THE EMERGING ALBEIT WEAK
ADDITIVE WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT INTO A HEALTHY MIDDAY MIXED
LAYER UNDER INCREASING INSOLATION WILL WORK HIGHS BACK TOWARD 70F
THIS AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARMING INTO TONIGHT
AS LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING MIGRATES INTO THE REGION.  WINDOW FOR
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY COMES EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.  LOW TEMPERATURES CAPPED
BY THIS EVOLUTION...BUT STILL LOOKING AT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

ENERGETIC FLOW ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BACK
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO BIG TIME
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...SEE
12Z EURO VS 00Z GFS/CANADIAN MODELS. INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LOOKS TO BE
ONE OF THE ISSUES.

SOLID HEIGHT RISES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING 925 MB TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 20 C...WITH
850 MB TEMPS INTO THE MID TEENS. AIRMASS SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS IS BASED ON ASSUMPTION THERE WILL BE NO
MORNING FOG/STRATUS. THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE SEEN IN
MODELS AT 925 MB TO DRAW SOME CONCERN HOWEVER.

DRY/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP BYE DURING THE TUESDAY EVENING
HOURS...WITH NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS DOES NOT
LOOK MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY...BUT WINDS/MIXING DEPTHS
SHOULD BE LESS...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME MORNING FOG TO BURN OFF AS
WELL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES THURSDAY WITH RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING TOWARD GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM
FRONT SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM BEING ACTIVE WITH THE COPIOUS MOISTURE
ADVECTION...BUT LOCATION MAY BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH
(NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN) TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY. SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO WILL SUPPORT
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
ON SATURDAY...PER 00Z EURO. WILL NEED TO WORK THROUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCES/INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENDED FORECAST TO GAUGE
AMOUNT OF WIND AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.  WINDS SLACKEN
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

//DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WITHOUT A PUSH
OF DRY AIR TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST OVER THE METRO AIRPORTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE CLOUDS IN PLACE VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BETTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS THE CLOUDS PREVENT RADIATIONAL FOG FROM
GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. FURTHER NORTH VSBYS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
CREATING DENSER FOG WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT EARLIER THIS EVENING.
EVEN WITH THE PREVIOUS CLEARING VSBYS ARE STILL NOT CERTAIN AS THE
STRATUS BACKS ITS WAY WESTWARD. DESPITE THE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN LOW STRATUS BELOW 1000 FT OVERNIGHT...VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE STRATUS SPREADING.

FOR DTW...LOW STRATUS BELOW 1000 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECTED TO RISE MONDAY MORNING AS DRY AIR FINALLY
MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS STAYING ABOVE 200FT OR 1/2SM LATE
  TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 127 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A 130 KNOT 250-300 MB JET INTO
THE PAC NW AS A TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE FROM BC. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS
WERE RISING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES IN THE
WEAK OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH INTO NE ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SW WINDS
WERE INCREASING AS SFC RIDGE FROM NRN LOWER MI TO SE KS GRADUALLY
SLIDES TO THE SE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST WHILE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AND ASSOC MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR. PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LAKE MI WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDED
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING.

MONDAY...SW WAA WILL INCREASE...PUSHING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 12C TO
14C RANGE. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...PER 600-400 MB RH
FCST...SUNSHINE AND MIXING INTO THE 875-850 MB LAYER SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FCST MIXED LAYER WINDS INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS
ALSO DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S RESULTING IN RH VALUES OF AROUND 35
PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER RISKS WILL INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE BY 3-4C TO AROUND 17C MON NIGHT IN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND GUSTY MON
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS FROM THE NW WINDS. WHILE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP. THE
00Z/29 ECMWF BROUGHT RAIN A BIT FARTHER S THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IT IS ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING PRECIP THAT FAR
S...AND IT DOES NOT SEEM REALISTIC SINCE THE BEST FORCING FROM THE
LOW WILL BE N OF THE CWA AND THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
WILL BE OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE TIME PERIOD DRY AT THIS TIME.
WITH WNW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS OVERHEAD...WED LOOKS TO SEE CLOSER
TO SEASONAL TEMPS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70.

THINGS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCERTAIN THU THROUGH SUN AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND MODEL TO MODEL
AGREEMENT IS LACKING. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT MODELS HAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COMBINES WITH OTHER MORE SUBTLE
PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY TO POSSIBLY CAUSE RAPID SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE PLAINS. WITH THIS TYPE OF VOLATILE SYSTEM...SUBTLE FEATURES THAT
ARE BEYOND THE PREDICTABLE CAPABILITIES OF LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS
AT THIS RANGE WILL MAKE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH MAKES FOR HUGE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. IF THE SYSTEM DOES
FOLLOW THE WORST CASE SCENARIO...WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
AS THE SYSTEM WOULD DEEPEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE VERY
QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NE...CAUSING A RAPID PRESSURE CHANGE AND
STRONG GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN VERY
STRONG WINDS /ESPECIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL ENTIRELY...OR AT
LEAST MOSTLY...IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING
AGAIN THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND MODEL
DEPICTIONS WILL SURELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE THERE IS
NO VALUE IN ADDING TOO MANY SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE
SYSTEM...THOSE WITH VULNERABLE INTERESTS /ESPECIALLY TO WINDS/
SHOULD KEEP UPDATED ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. ONE THING THAT
DOES LOOK MORE CERTAIN IS THAT COLDER TEMPS AND MORE
UNSETTLED/WETTER WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LLWS IS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SW WINDS CONTINUE ABOVE
THE DECOUPLED SFC LAYER. WILL GET GUSTY AT ALL SITES MON THROUGH MON
EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
IN THE WIND FORECAST DROPS OFF BY LATE THIS WEEK AS MODELS OFFER
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 322 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW.

WAA AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET WAS AIDING IN HIGH CLOUDS
THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE RAP WAS
DOING A DECENT JOB HANDLING THESE CLOUDS AND WE SHOULD SEE THEM BE
THICKEST FOR A TIME THIS MORNING...THEN THEY SHOULD THIN BEFORE WE
SEE CLOUDS THICKEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE SEVENTIES. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AND THEY SHOULD BE STRONGEST
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE COOLER
WITH THE OFF LAKE WINDS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
FIFTIES.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A
LOW OFF TO THE NORTH. GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT WITH
GOOD MIXING DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER OUR MN
CWA...AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY...AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES
NORTHWEST OVER THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS/BIGFORK/WALKER AREAS TO 70 TO
75 OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A COLORADO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS BRING A
COOLING TREND WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO
THE NORTHLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING AT
LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHLAND...AND MAYBE MORE
THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET IN THE WAKE ON THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL NEED TO
CAREFULLY CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL WINDOW FOR SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
DEPENDING ON HOW COLD AND SATURATED THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ARE AT
THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THE GFS. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY...I LEFT THE FORECAST AS RAIN FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS.
LLWS OF 35-45 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN THE KHYR AREA THROUGH 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  56  73  46 /   0  10   0   0
INL  74  52  68  42 /  10  20  10   0
BRD  76  54  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  74  54  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  74  56  74  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING/GROCHOCINSKI







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1131 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

.UPDATE:
Issued at 943 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

Made a few significant changes to the previous forecast for
tonight. First is the stratus that is flirting with the southern
border of our CWA across southern Illinois into southeast
Missouri. The northwest edge of this has already begun to slowly
advance northward into Reynolds, Iron, and Madison Counties. To
varying degrees, all the short range guidance has the advective
flow in the cloud bearing layer becoming light southeasterly
overnight and bringing this stratus northward into at least the
eastern Ozarks and south central Illinois. To the north of this,
we have already seen temp/dew point spreads rapidly decrease since
sunset and some locations are less than 3 degrees at 02z. Further
radiational cooling tonight should lead to the development of fog
over the southeast third of the CWA. The HRRR has been showing
this in all its runs since midday and it did an outstanding job on
the dense fog last night/early this morning from northeast and
central Missouri into southwest Missouri. The new update adds the
mention of areas of dense fog and increases the sky cover to the
south, along with tweeking some temps down a few degrees.

Glass
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

Cold front settled southeast of the CWA as expected, currently
stretching from central Indiana to the Bootheel of Missouri. In
its wake, clear and pleasant weather conditions were reported with
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s and dewpoints in the
40s and 50s.

Some worry about fog developing tonight across southeast Missouri
and southern Illinois where clouds are just now clearing out. Will
place some patchy fog down that way and let evening shift monitor
for the need of any headlines. Elsewhere, drier air and sunshine
today should keep fog limited to just typical river valleys.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

Return flow in the wake of the surface ridge already underway to
our west and this should move east tomorrow, allowing a warming
trend back into the 80s through Wednesday.

Chance of rain increases Thursday through Saturday as a trof of
low pressure aloft deepens across the Plains and a surface cold
front settles into the Midwest. Details on timing and surface low
development are still up in the air, but it certainly appears
there is a good chance of seeing some meaningful rain out of this
system late in the week and into the weekend. Due to timing
uncertainty have kept POPs in chance category.

Cool air expected in the wake of the system next weekend with
highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

CVKING
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2013

Main issue in the short term will be fog possibilities, mainly in
the river valleys. We mixed out pretty good on Sunday, but with
low temps forecasted at KSUS and KCPS close to the cross over
temps feel that could see MVFR/IFR fog towards daybreak. Also,
possibility of some low stratus as cloud deck to our southeast
slowly advects back towards region, but just added scattered
mention for now to metro area tafs. Conditions to improve by 16z
Monday. As for rest of taf sites, clear skies and light winds
expected, then as surface ridge moves off to the east winds to
pickup from the south by mid morning and persist through rest of
forecast period for all taf sites.

Specifics for KSTL:
Main issue in the short term will be fog possibilities, mainly in
the river valleys. We mixed out pretty good on Sunday, but with
low temps forecasted at KSUS and KCPS close to the cross over
temps feel that could see MVFR/IFR fog towards daybreak. KSTL
should remain fog free. Also, possibility of some low stratus as
cloud deck to our southeast slowly advects back towards region,
but confidence is low so just added scattered mention for now to
KSTL around 10z. As surface ridge moves off to the east winds to
pickup from the south by 16z Monday and persist through rest of
forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 332 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN POISED TO MOVE INTO MANITOBA. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
SOME RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED ACROSS BOTTINEAU COUNTY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT BELIEVE MAY BE VIRGA AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND.

WARM ADVECTION TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT...PROGGED TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY MID-AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FRONT AND WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR IS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS AS WELL.

MORE OF INTEREST IS WINDS. A H300 WESTERLY JET OF 100-120 KNOTS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE AFTERNOON COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT - AND DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THINK THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
AT 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY WEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ALL MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH IN
CANADA. WHILE GRADIENT FORCING AND PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA...MODELS STILL DEPICT GOOD WIND
LINKAGE TO 850MB ALONG WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES THROUGH AT LEAST
900MB ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON MODEL TRENDS
IN CASE A WIND ADVISORY BECOMES WARRANTED.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
WHEN A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES
AND EVENTUALLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...COUPLED
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SHOULD
RESULT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS EAST TO NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS HITTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA HARDEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE DAKOTAS...WHILE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...LIMITING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HERE.

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND AGAIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA RECEIVES THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A COLD
AND RAINY PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH RAIN LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THERE REMAINS A
LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. CAA ARRIVES ALONG TO BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WAA
REDEVELOPING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NEAR KJMS AND MOVING EAST. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT UP TO 10 KNOTS. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 14-20 KNOTS BETWEEN
15Z-19Z...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS WESTERN ND TAF AREA BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE TO NEAR KJMS BY AROUND
03Z. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 233 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM WEST...BUT WASHES OUT AS ENTERING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REFRESHED SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST SFC OBS AND
SATELLITE IMAGES...THEN FOLLOWED THE RUC SOLUTION THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY.

DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS PER RADAR IMAGES
SHOWING VERY LITTLE DEVELOPING ACROSS OH ATTM. SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RES MODELS NOT SHOWING QPF OVERNIGHT...BUT INTO MID MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH...SPREADING WEST AS SHOWERS DISSIPATE. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS...AROUND 20 PERCENT ALONG THE OH RIVER BY 18-21Z
MONDAY...ACCORDING TO NAM/HPC/GFS GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED SKY AND TEMPS/DEW POINTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING NW OHIO IS STILL EXPECTED TO WASH
OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS OHIO...AND MAY NEVER REALLY MAKE IT INTO
CWA. NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WITH ATTACHED VORT LOBE ALONG WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INTO CWA TONIGHT...AND PRINTING OUT QPF WITH IT. GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL
GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP WEST TONIGHT...THEN DEVELOP ACROSS CWA
MONDAY. TRENDED THIS WAY...BUT DID NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY
TONIGHT...KEEPING SOME POPS IN THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AIDED BY DIURNAL
CYCLE. DO EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BLENDED IN THE WARMER MET FOR LOWS. USED A BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS S/W UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH AXIS LOCATED OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RESULTANT LIGHT W/SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME TRAPPED LLVL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER AROUND 5KFT
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 700MB. WILL CONTINUE DRY
FORECAST HOWEVER WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER RIDGING AND STILL NO REAL CONVERGENCE NOTED ON THE
RIDGETOPS...A TREND SEEN WITH YESTERDAY MORNING/S FORECAST PACKAGE
AS WELL. ALL IN ALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY AFTER MORNING
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ERODE...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AS USUAL
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. VERY FEW CHANGES MADE WITH INHERITED MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS.

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL AS UPPER S/W RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE
A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY AFTER 00Z WED...AND WITH NEAR-CALM WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS CONTINUING IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 RIVER VALLEY FOG SEEMS
A DECENT BET AFTER 06Z WED. WON/T GET TOO FANCY WITH CODING UP FOG
VISBYS BUT DID INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG WORDING IN THE WX GRIDS.

ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA. EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD RISE INTO A LOW
STRATUS DECK BEFORE SCATTERING BY MID/LATE MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND
A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
AGAIN...VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO PREV FCST WITH MAX TEMPS WARMING A FEW
DEGREES TO AROUND 80 FOR THE LOWLANDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH UPPER HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A S/W TROUGH PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MISS VALLEY TOWARDS THE LOW/MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY
BY 12Z THU. AS SUCH FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED VERSUS TUE
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S
AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER 60S IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND TRACK OF WEAK SW DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BOTH DAYS WITH HEATING.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY. INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ARE ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A MIDDLE LEVEL BROKEN DECK
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FAR
NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN CASE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECT PKB OR HTS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...SO DID NOT INCLUDE THESE
CONDITIONS ON 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z...SPREADING EAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH 00Z.
PROBABILITIES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BELOW 50 PERCENT.
THEREFORE...THESE CONDITIONS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF ATTM.

REMOVED ANY FOG FORMATION PER CLOUD COVER PREVENTING RADIATIONAL
COOLING EFFECTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIST COULD OCCUR.
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MAY VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 09/30/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...ARJ









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1258 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM WEST...BUT WASHES OUT AS ENTERING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REFRESHED SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST SFC OBS AND
SATELLITE IMAGES...THEN FOLLOWED THE RUC SOLUTION THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY.

DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS PER RADAR IMAGES
SHOWING VERY LITTLE DEVELOPING ACROSS OH ATTM. SYNOPTIC AND HIGH
RES MODELS NOT SHOWING QPF OVERNIGHT...BUT INTO MID MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH...SPREADING WEST AS SHOWERS DISSIPATE. ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS...AROUND 20 PERCENT ALONG THE OH RIVER BY 18-21Z
MONDAY...ACCORDING TO NAM/HPC/GFS GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED SKY AND TEMPS/DEW POINTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING NW OHIO IS STILL EXPECTED TO WASH
OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS OHIO...AND MAY NEVER REALLY MAKE IT INTO
CWA. NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WITH ATTACHED VORT LOBE ALONG WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INTO CWA TONIGHT...AND PRINTING OUT QPF WITH IT. GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL
GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP WEST TONIGHT...THEN DEVELOP ACROSS CWA
MONDAY. TRENDED THIS WAY...BUT DID NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY
TONIGHT...KEEPING SOME POPS IN THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AIDED BY DIURNAL
CYCLE. DO EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BLENDED IN THE WARMER MET FOR LOWS. USED A BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. LEFT OVER
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY.
TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM CURRENT GRIDS AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND TRACK OF WEAK SW DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BOTH DAYS WITH HEATING.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY. INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ARE ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A MIDDLE LEVEL BROKEN DECK
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FAR
NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN CASE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECT PKB OR HTS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...SO DID NOT INCLUDE THESE
CONDITIONS ON 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z...SPREADING EAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH 00Z.
PROBABILITIES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BELOW 50 PERCENT.
THEREFORE...THESE CONDITIONS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF ATTM.

REMOVED ANY FOG FORMATION PER CLOUD COVER PREVENTING RADIATIONAL
COOLING EFFECTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIST COULD OCCUR.
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MAY VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 09/30/13
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...ARJ









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

 1208 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE COAST WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. WINDS ARE EITHER VARIABLE OR CALM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER KBRO/KHRL
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO PUT IN TAFS. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SAME TAF SITES AS WELL WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES THEN ESTABLISH FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER MONDAY. WITH
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF WEAKENING FRONT...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AT KBRO/KHRL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY AT THIS TIME AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE GULF WATERS. LESS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST SO LOWER THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THE REST OF THE EVENING.
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
IMPACTING THE KBRO TERMINAL. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS
IS CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD AND COULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
HIGH CIRRUS DEBRI CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AT AROUND 2000
FEET WILL STREAM ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF IN A FEW HOURS WITH VARIABLE WINDS
PREVAILING TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...FAIRLY COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
WEAK SFC RIDGE ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...AND A
WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST TO ROUGHLY A MCALLEN
TO BAFFIN BAY LINE. AT THE SAME TIME RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOW AN MCV/CLOSED CYCLONE PATTERN ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF ZAPATA
COUNTY WHICH IS MORE FOCUSED THAN THE 850MB TROUGH THAT SHOWED UP
ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR CHART. THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE APPARENT
SURFACE REFLECTION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A JET MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEPENING WEST TEXAS TROUGH IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE
DIFFLUENT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT PARTIALLY CURVES SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE RIDGE. COLUMN MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING PER
SATELLITE PWAT ESTIMATES AND PERIODIC LOW CLOUD COVERAGE AND
MODIFIED RAP AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT A RESIDUAL 850MB CAP IS VERY LIKELY
HOLDING BACK INITIATION AT THIS HOUR WHICH BASED ON THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS SO FAR SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE.

REST OF THE AFTERNOON...VWP SHOWS MODEST WESTERLY WINDS WHICH
SHOULD BE TRANSPORTING THE RICHER COLUMN MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...WHICH IS FAIRLY COUNTER INTUITIVE FOR OUR GEOGRAPHY. DO NOT
BELIEVE THAT THE VELOCITY OR TRAJECTORY WILL INCREASE OUR
CAPPING...BUT IT MAY...AND THAT MAY KEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION HELD
BACK UNTIL UPPER TROUGHING GETS CLOSER. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND A SEABREEZE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AT LEAST SOMETHING GOING
BY 4 PM HOWEVER. ANYTHING THAT GOES UP WILL BE VIRTUALLY STATIONARY
AND WITH INCREASING PWATS A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT EXISTS.

TONIGHT...GFS IS THE SLOWEST BRINGING THE TROUGH THROUGH AND DOES
NOT SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE/LIFT UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND KEEPS THE WINDOW OPEN FOR HIGHER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY. RAP/HRRR/NAM START LARGE SCALE UPPER LIFT
EARLIER...BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CLEARS THE AREA FASTER ON MONDAY.
WATER VAPOR AND GOES DERIVED WINDS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME
DIFFLUENCE WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AND LIKELY HELP GET A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION GOING OVER AT LEAST THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA BY 6 OR 7
PM...WITH THE CHANCE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. UPPER LIFT
PEAKS AROUND 06Z/100 AM CDT OVER THE AREA AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES AROUND THIS TIME. BUMPED UP TO LIKELY
POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER IN
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN THE DEEPER LAYER
STEERING WINDS INCREASE AND START TO MOVE THE CONVECTION ALONG MORE
QUICKLY.

MONDAY...BELIEVE THE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK AS FAR AS COMPLETE
CLEARING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THE 12Z ECMWF AGREES FAIRLY
WELL. SO KEPT 30/40 PCT POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
CHANCE STARTING TO WANE AFTER ABOUT 2100Z/400 PM AS THE TROUGH AXIS
CLEARS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE FASTER MOVING ON MONDAY. PREVAILING
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATING AROUND
CONVECTION WITH A WINDOW FOR HEATING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
MORNING...AND AFTER STORMS START TO WANE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH UPPER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS THERE MAY BE A THREAT FOR GROUND FOG OR
RADIATION FOG GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB LOW ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TX BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST LINGERS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST THURSDAY. A 500MB TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD
FRIDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TX SATURDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START BY LATE EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. PREVAILING WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. MORE
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN MONDAY
MORNING PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHWEST TX FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 1031 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

AN OCEAN STORM WILL PASS OUT TO SEA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

EVALUATING 12Z SOUNDINGS...BOTH UPTON NEW YORK AND CHATHAM
MASSACHUSETTS EXHIBITED A DRY-AIR SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND H85
BENEATH WHICH EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILED RESULTING IN MOISTURE
POOLING...AIDING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS. OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE DISSIPATION OF LOW FOG AND STRATUS...BUT AREAS STILL
LINGER OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO PORTIONS
OF RHODE ISLAND. SO LONG AS MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OFFSHORE COASTAL STORM STAY AT BAY...CONTINUING MIXING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROCEED ALLOWING FOR ALL DENSE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS TO DISSIPATE.

AS TO THE OCEAN STORM...LATEST RAP/HRRR HIGHLIGHTS AN ENHANCING
JET STREAK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE RESULTING IN INCREASING
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT. SUBSEQUENT FALLING
HEIGHTS IS PROMOTING A NORTH- AND WEST-WARD JAUNT IN THE COASTAL
STORM. THE RAP IS FURTHEST WEST WITH THE FORECAST...WITH THE HRRR
NOT FAR BEHIND AMONG THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS PER
SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE FORECAST GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL...
BUT SOMEWHAT QUESTION WHETHER THE ACTUAL CENTER IS JUST A TAD
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST.

NEVERTHELESS...CONSIDERING THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL LOW...THERE REASONS TO BE AN AREA INBETWEEN OF SINKING AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE. THE STRENGTH OF THIS AREA SHOULD KEEP THE
COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE...BUT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
BRUSH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. STILL
KEEPING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

WILL SEE INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALSO ALONG THE
SHORES. ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WAVES AND SWELL...WHETHER A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...BUT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S URBAN
CENTERS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID.

TUESDAY...
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR WARMING
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 11C AND 925 MB
TEMPS TO 15-16C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 70S WITH
UPPER 70S CT/MERRIMACK VALLEYS...BUT SEABREEZES WILL RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. MOSUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED BUT SCT-BKN CU SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
* 80+ DEGREES HIGHS EXPECT ON WED AND POSSIBLY THURS.
* TIMING DIFFERENCES ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE WEEKEND

CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
DRY WEATHER AND ANOMALOUS WARMTH FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODEL SPREAD IS GREATER.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. AFTERWARDS A LOT OF MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH HAS
CAUSED SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUS
RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEK AND AMPLIFY
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL DELAY THE TROUGH OUT WEST
AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUN/MON. THE 30.00Z EC SLOWED DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE 29.12Z EC AND IN FACT IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 29.00 EC. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION AND THEREFORE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS/EC.
FEEL THAT WPC IS TO PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SUMMER LIKE WARMTH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 14-16C. THIS WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS IS ALSO
REPRESENTED BY A GOOD PORTION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...SO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY HOWEVER
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
COOLER ALONG THE COAST FROM SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER NOT AS
WARM AS WEDNESDAY. APPEARS A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
ON FRIDAY INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE
WARM MOIST SECTOR. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT BOTH DAY TO BE A
WASHOUT...MAINLY JUST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS. OVERALL MODERATE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SOMETIME ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IMPACTED. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT MODELS TO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THIS FEATURE. THEREFORE SUNDAY MAY BE A PLEASANT DAY...BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1430Z UPDATE...

IFR/LIFR LIFTING. INCREASING N/NE WINDS ALONG E/SE NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO FILTER ACROSS E/SE NEW
ENGLAND AS WELL. CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAY
SEE THE RE-EMERGENCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL VALLEY LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR AND ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE
BREEZY AT TIMES.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR BOUTS OF LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1430Z UPDATE...

EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TODAY WITH AN OFFSHORE COASTAL STORM MOVING NORTH TOWARDS
NOVA SCOTIA. MONITORING FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORM...MAY NEED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH SEAS
GETTING UP TO 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIND AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH FRI WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 2ND:

BOS 88 IN 1954
PVD 87 IN 1927
ORH 83 IN 1922
BDL 91 IN 1927

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...WFO BOX




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 752 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE 140 KNOT 250-300 MB
JET DRIVING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE PAC NW WHILE
ANOTHER WOUND UP STORM SYSTEM IS NOTED OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN PLAINS STATES.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY DRIVING A 40-50 KT 8H JET ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...SSW WAA WILL INCREASE...BRINGING 12-14C
850 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN WAA HIGH
CLOUDS...SUNSHINE AND MIXING INTO THE 875-850 MB LAYER SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FCST MIXED LAYER WINDS INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE AS NOTED ON 00Z NAM
SNDGS COULD RESULT IN SSW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO DROPPING TO AROUND 40F
THE RESULTING RH VALUES OF AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL ELEVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO/EHWO AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20-30 MPH OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OVER DOWNSLOPING
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MIXING FROM THE WINDS WILL RESULT
IN POOR RH RECOVERY ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA WHERE MAX RH VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 65-75 PCT. THE
WINDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA AND
PERHAPS CLOSER TO 60F FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

H5-H2 HEIGHTS FEATURE A NEGATIVE PNA TELECONNECTION PATTERN WITH
TROUGHING INTO WESTERN CANADA AND CONUS VIA 160+ KT H3-H2 JET
BLASTING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. LEADING SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH SHOWING UP OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHTNING. WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS UPPER LAKES AS IT MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT TIED TO THE WAVE CROSSES UPR
MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF TROUGH.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD TO AROUND H8 BY AFTN WHILE
IT STILL IS WARM ALOFT ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S
AND LIKELY INTO LOWER 80S FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL CWA. DEEP MIXING
ALLOWS DWPNTS TO CRASH INTO THE 30S AS SHOWN BY EXPLICIT MODEL
DWPNTS. BLENDING THIS WITH MIXED LAYER DWPNTS WOULD INDICATE SOME
DWPNTS BY LATE AFTN OVR WESTERN HALF OF CWA MAY FALL INTO THE UPR
20S. AS IT STANDS NOW...EVEN WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR
DWPNTS...RH VALUES FCST TO COME VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL 25 PCT MARK.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS COMBO OF WARM TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE AFTN AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PEAK GUSTS OVER 30 MPH IN PARTS OF THE WEST AND CNTRL CWA. ALL
TOGETHER WE ARE FIRMLY NEARING CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A PRETTY DRY SEPT IN PARTS OF THE CWA.
BASED ON EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND ON TUESDAY...
WILL ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT. DAYSHIFT CAN TALK TO FIRE
USERS TODAY TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

KIND OF A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS CWA WILL BE BTWN THE INTIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE MAIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH POISED TO MOVE IN
BY LATE WEEK. WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH MOST AREAS MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND AS TUESDAY. RH VALUES
COULD ONCE AGAIN FALL TO NEAR 25 PCT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO BACK SIDE OF TROUGH FM WESTERN ALASKA
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN DEEPENING SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AT 12Z FRIDAY
HAD THE LOW OVER WESTERN KS WHILE THE 29/12Z ECMWF SHOWED THE LOW
OVR UPR MICHIGAN. 00Z ECMWF TRENDING MUCH SLOWER AND NOW LOOKS MUCH
CLOSER TO GFS AS IT SHOWS MAIN LOW OVER EASTERN KS WITH INVERTED
TROUGH INTO UPR LAKES. WE WILL SEE OVER NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHETHER
THIS TREND HOLDS. AT THIS POINT...WPC FAVORS SOLUTION CLOSER TO
GFS/UKMET WITH SFC LOW...BUT EVEN HERE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
THURSDAY...THE UKMET LOOKS SIMILAR TO ECMWF WITH INITIAL PLACEMENT
OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND RESULTING SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. 1000-850MB THERMAL GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF NW WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN WI ON THURSDAY. WOULD THINK THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR
BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85 INTERSECTS
THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SECONDARY AREA OF H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT SETS
UP NORTH OF BOUNDARY THURSDAY MORNING...SO HAVE CARRIED HIGHER
CHANCES ALL THE WAY TO LK SUPERIOR. LIKELY POPS SEEM GOOD OVER AT
LEAST SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND THEN FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS CONSENSUS GRIDS INDICATED.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DETAILS PLAY OUT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WE WILL TAKE OUR BEST SHOT AT IT THOUGH.GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD
SLOWER EJECTION OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW...EXPECT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PART OF THAT TIME
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE. DRY SLOT MAY IMPACT POP/WX
SOMETIME AS WELL...THOUGH TO KNOW EXACTLY WHEN THOUGH. ALSO...BETTER
CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THOSE AREAS
ARE IN VCNTY OF SOME MODEST MLCAPES AND ON THE NOSE OF STRONG SW H85
JET.

EVENTUALLY LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH LIKELY A
DEEPENING TREND TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY WHICH
BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. WINDS SURROUNDING SAID DEEPENING
LOW COULD EASILY BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS FORECAST INDICATES. JUST
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO COMPLETELY WITH ONE SOLUTION. STRONGEST
WINDS WOULD BE FRIDAY IN WARM SECTOR THEN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW-N AND PULL IN THE COLDER AIR
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. EITHER TIME FRAME WINDS COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH
IF NOT HIT ADVY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH GUSTS. AS IT LOOKED
YDY...UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPS INTO UPR LAKES WHICH IMPACTS HOW MUCH LK
ENHANCED/LK EFFECT PRECIP WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALSO DIFFERENCES IN HOW COLD IT GETS IN THE BLYR. LATEST ECMWF
ACTUALLY ENDS UP MORE WRAPPED UP WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO GFS AND
SHOWS ENOUGH COOLING TO PROBABLY HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. NO
MENTION OF SNOW NOW THOUGH. JUST TOO MUCH...YOU GUESSED
IT...UNCERTAINTY.

DOES APPEAR COOLING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS INDICATIONS ARE ANOTHER
LARGER SCALE TROUGH RELOADS OVER WESTERN CONUS BY END OF LONG
TERM...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO CNTRL CONUS INCLUDING UPR
LAKES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM NO DOUBT WILL BE LEADING THE CHARGE WITH
THAT UPPER TROUGH...SO PATTERN MAY TURN ACTIVE AGAIN BEYOND NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. STRONG S-SW
WINDS WILL GUST AOA 30 KT BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY AOA 20KT TONIGHT AT BOTH KIWD AND KSAW BUT SHOULD
DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT AT KCMX WHERE LLWS WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
FCST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS
TODAY WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WED AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU INTO
FRI. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN E-SE WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND STRENGTHENING NE WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE WRN PART
OF THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 729 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SUSTAINED ON LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS MAINTAINING A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG THROUGHOUT
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.  RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM
MODEL SOUNDINGS LEND SUPPORT TOWARD A QUICK REMOVAL OF THE
CORRESPONDING LIFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AS MIXING INCREASES THIS
MORNING.  PEAK DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF AFTERNOON
SCT-BRIEF BKN VFR STRATO CU.  POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW MVFR FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS LIKELY MITIGATING A LARGER FOG ISSUE.

FOR DTW...EXISTING IFR STRATUS DECK WILL MIX OUT THIS MORNING.  SOME
RENEWED STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL ARRIVE IN THE
3500-4500 FT RANGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY`S WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE SOUTHEAST.  CONSIDERABLE LAG IN THE DEGREE OF POST-FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL DRYING LEAVING AN ENVIRONMENT PRIME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE FRONT FACE OF A GRADUALLY
ENCROACHING SURFACE RIDGE.  THE EARLIER CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER
DRYING TENDING TO FAVOR A DENSE FOG COMPONENT UNDER CONTINUED NEAR
SURFACE SATURATION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  POINTS TO THE SOUTH
STILL CARRYING JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT FLOW AND MOISTURE QUALITY TO
SUPPORT MORE STRATUS.  IN BOTH CASES...SUSPECT IT WILL REQUIRE A
GOOD PART OF THE POST-DAYBREAK MORNING PERIOD TO MIX OUT/LIFT THIS
MOISTURE...AS NOTED PER LATEST RUC GUIDANCE.

VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SETTLES TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE RIDGING SLIPPING EAST.  THE EMERGING ALBEIT WEAK
ADDITIVE WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT INTO A HEALTHY MIDDAY MIXED
LAYER UNDER INCREASING INSOLATION WILL WORK HIGHS BACK TOWARD 70F
THIS AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARMING INTO TONIGHT
AS LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING MIGRATES INTO THE REGION.  WINDOW FOR
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY COMES EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.  LOW TEMPERATURES CAPPED
BY THIS EVOLUTION...BUT STILL LOOKING AT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

LONG TERM...

ENERGETIC FLOW ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BACK
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO BIG TIME
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...SEE
12Z EURO VS 00Z GFS/CANADIAN MODELS. INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LOOKS TO BE
ONE OF THE ISSUES.

SOLID HEIGHT RISES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING 925 MB TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 20 C...WITH
850 MB TEMPS INTO THE MID TEENS. AIRMASS SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS IS BASED ON ASSUMPTION THERE WILL BE NO
MORNING FOG/STRATUS. THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE SEEN IN
MODELS AT 925 MB TO DRAW SOME CONCERN HOWEVER.

DRY/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP BYE DURING THE TUESDAY EVENING
HOURS...WITH NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS DOES NOT
LOOK MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY...BUT WINDS/MIXING DEPTHS
SHOULD BE LESS...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME MORNING FOG TO BURN OFF AS
WELL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES THURSDAY WITH RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING TOWARD GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM
FRONT SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM BEING ACTIVE WITH THE COPIOUS MOISTURE
ADVECTION...BUT LOCATION MAY BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH
(NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN) TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY. SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO WILL SUPPORT
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
ON SATURDAY...PER 00Z EURO. WILL NEED TO WORK THROUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCES/INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENDED FORECAST TO GAUGE
AMOUNT OF WIND AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.  WINDS SLACKEN
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 622 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW.

WAA AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET WAS AIDING IN HIGH CLOUDS
THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE RAP WAS
DOING A DECENT JOB HANDLING THESE CLOUDS AND WE SHOULD SEE THEM BE
THICKEST FOR A TIME THIS MORNING...THEN THEY SHOULD THIN BEFORE WE
SEE CLOUDS THICKEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE SEVENTIES. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AND THEY SHOULD BE STRONGEST
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE COOLER
WITH THE OFF LAKE WINDS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
FIFTIES.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A
LOW OFF TO THE NORTH. GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT WITH
GOOD MIXING DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER OUR MN
CWA...AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY...AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES
NORTHWEST OVER THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS/BIGFORK/WALKER AREAS TO 70 TO
75 OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A COLORADO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS BRING A
COOLING TREND WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO
THE NORTHLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING AT
LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHLAND...AND MAYBE MORE
THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET IN THE WAKE ON THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL NEED TO
CAREFULLY CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL WINDOW FOR SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
DEPENDING ON HOW COLD AND SATURATED THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ARE AT
THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THE GFS. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY...I LEFT THE FORECAST AS RAIN FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS APPROACHES THE REGION.
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR
WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT. THERE WILL BE LINGERING
WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING AT KHYR/KDLH/KHIB DUE TO STRONG SW FLOW OF
40 TO 50 KT AROUND 2 KFT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...AND THEN BECOME WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  56  73  46 /   0  10   0   0
INL  74  52  68  42 /  10  20  10   0
BRD  76  54  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  74  54  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  74  56  74  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 959 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THE UPDATE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SHORTWAVE SUPPORTED BY 125KT 250MB JET PROGRESSING ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA. CONTINUED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MODELS SHOWING COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL ND BY 00Z. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA. DRY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS IS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TURN WEST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN POISED TO MOVE INTO MANITOBA. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
SOME RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED ACROSS BOTTINEAU COUNTY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT BELIEVE MAY BE VIRGA AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND.

WARM ADVECTION TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT...PROGGED TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY MID-AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FRONT AND WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR IS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS AS WELL.

MORE OF INTEREST IS WINDS. A H300 WESTERLY JET OF 100-120 KNOTS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE AFTERNOON COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT - AND DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THINK THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
AT 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY WEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ALL MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH IN
CANADA. WHILE GRADIENT FORCING AND PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA...MODELS STILL DEPICT GOOD WIND
LINKAGE TO 850MB ALONG WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES THROUGH AT LEAST
900MB ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON MODEL TRENDS
IN CASE A WIND ADVISORY BECOMES WARRANTED.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
WHEN A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES
AND EVENTUALLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...COUPLED
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SHOULD
RESULT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS EAST TO NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS HITTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA HARDEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE DAKOTAS...WHILE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...LIMITING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HERE.

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND AGAIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA RECEIVES THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A COLD
AND RAINY PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH RAIN LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THERE REMAINS A
LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. CAA ARRIVES ALONG TO BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WAA
REDEVELOPING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN SASKATCHEWAN TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 14-20 KNOTS BETWEEN 15Z-19Z...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS WESTERN ND TAF AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z
AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE TO NEAR KJMS BY AROUND 03Z. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN
THIS TAF PACKAGE. LATE TONIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK AFT
06Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 652 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA. DRY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS IS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TURN WEST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN POISED TO MOVE INTO MANITOBA. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
SOME RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED ACROSS BOTTINEAU COUNTY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT BELIEVE MAY BE VIRGA AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND.

WARM ADVECTION TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT...PROGGED TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY MID-AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FRONT AND WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR IS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS AS WELL.

MORE OF INTEREST IS WINDS. A H300 WESTERLY JET OF 100-120 KNOTS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE AFTERNOON COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT - AND DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THINK THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
AT 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY WEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ALL MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH IN
CANADA. WHILE GRADIENT FORCING AND PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA...MODELS STILL DEPICT GOOD WIND
LINKAGE TO 850MB ALONG WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES THROUGH AT LEAST
900MB ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON MODEL TRENDS
IN CASE A WIND ADVISORY BECOMES WARRANTED.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
WHEN A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES
AND EVENTUALLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...COUPLED
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SHOULD
RESULT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS EAST TO NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS HITTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA HARDEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE DAKOTAS...WHILE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...LIMITING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HERE.

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND AGAIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA RECEIVES THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A COLD
AND RAINY PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH RAIN LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THERE REMAINS A
LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. CAA ARRIVES ALONG TO BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WAA
REDEVELOPING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN SASKATCHEWAN TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 14-20 KNOTS BETWEEN 15Z-19Z...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS WESTERN ND TAF AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z
AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE TO NEAR KJMS BY AROUND 03Z. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN
THIS TAF PACKAGE. LATE TONIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK AFT
06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 421 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN WITH A
120-130 KNOT 250-300 MB JET FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ONE
MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NRN MANITOBA WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO SW SASK. AT THE SFC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BTWN HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A 988 MB LOW INTO NRN MANITOBA
HAS BROUGHT INCREASING SRLY WINDS THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE MANITOBA LOW INTO NW MN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER MN AND NW WI.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WIND GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MIXING WILL KEEP MIN
TEMPS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 60F
FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUESDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
VEERING WINDS TO WESTERLY. OTHERWISE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
10C-11C INTO THE WEST...MAX READINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER S CENTRAL UPPER
MI SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO 80. UPSTREAM OBS AND MDLS SUGGEST THAT
THAT DRY ADVECTION AND DEEPR AFTERNOON MIXING WILL DROP
DEWPOINTS INTO UPPER 30S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE WEST...HOWEVER...SHOULD
LIMIT MIN RH DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY
OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK AS NOTED IN THE UPDATED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

WILL START OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE
EXITING INITIAL COLD FRONT OVER FAR E UPPER MI AND THE MAIN SFC LOW
OVER FAR N ONTARIO AND S LAKE HURON. GIVEN THE MUCH OF THE ENERGY
REMAINS WELL TO OUR N...THE MAIN RESULT WILL THE BE THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING 20-28KTS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY GETS HERE ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE SFC LOW EXITS INTO N QUEBEC AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS. EXTENDED THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER A BIT
LONGER...THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK WILL EXTEND
A TROUGH/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
THE MAIN LOW SLOWLY NEARS FROM THE SW. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE NEAR 1000MB LOW SATURDAY TO
RESULT IN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH
CHC TO DEF POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL WAIT UNTIL WE
GET A CLEARER SOLUTION BEFORE PIN POINTING EXACT LOCATIONS AND
TIMING. THE CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE LOW SHIFT NE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...WITH W-NW WINDS LINGERING BEHIND THE LOW. THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES HAVE 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -2C LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY....WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP A BKN-OVC SKY OVERHEAD.
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE IS FIGURED SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A QUICK LOW
SKIRTING THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NEARS FOR MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. STRONG S-SW
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY AOA 20KT TONIGHT AT KIWD BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE
SOMEWHAT AT KCMX/KSAW WHERE LLWS WAS INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

SRLY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THU INTO FRI. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN E-SE WINDS OVER
CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND STRENGTHENING NE WINDS TO 25 KT
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 409 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN WITH A
120-130 KNOT 250-300 MB JET FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ONE
MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NRN MANITOBA WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO SW SASK. AT THE SFC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BTWN HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A 988 MB LOW INTO NRN MANITOBA
HAS BROUGHT INCREASING SRLY WINDS THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE MANITOBA LOW INTO NW MN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER MN AND NW WI.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WIND GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. MIXING WILL KEEP MIN
TEMPS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 60F
FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUESDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
VEERING WINDS TO WESTERLY. OTHERWISE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
10C-11C INTO THE WEST...MAX READINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER S CENTRAL UPPER
MI SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO 80. UPSTREAM OBS AND MDLS SUGGEST THAT
THAT DRY ADVECTION AND DEEPR AFTERNOON MIXING WILL DROP
DEWPOINTS INTO UPPER 30S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE WEST...HOWEVER...SHOULD
LIMIT MIN RH DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY
OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK AS NOTED IN THE UPDATED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

H5-H2 HEIGHTS FEATURE A NEGATIVE PNA TELECONNECTION PATTERN WITH
TROUGHING INTO WESTERN CANADA AND CONUS VIA 160+ KT H3-H2 JET
BLASTING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. LEADING SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH SHOWING UP OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHTNING. WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS UPPER LAKES AS IT MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT TIED TO THE WAVE CROSSES UPR
MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF TROUGH.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD TO AROUND H8 BY AFTN WHILE
IT STILL IS WARM ALOFT ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S
AND LIKELY INTO LOWER 80S FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL CWA. DEEP MIXING
ALLOWS DWPNTS TO CRASH INTO THE 30S AS SHOWN BY EXPLICIT MODEL
DWPNTS. BLENDING THIS WITH MIXED LAYER DWPNTS WOULD INDICATE SOME
DWPNTS BY LATE AFTN OVR WESTERN HALF OF CWA MAY FALL INTO THE UPR
20S. AS IT STANDS NOW...EVEN WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR
DWPNTS...RH VALUES FCST TO COME VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL 25 PCT MARK.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS COMBO OF WARM TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE AFTN AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PEAK GUSTS OVER 30 MPH IN PARTS OF THE WEST AND CNTRL CWA. ALL
TOGETHER WE ARE FIRMLY NEARING CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A PRETTY DRY SEPT IN PARTS OF THE CWA.
BASED ON EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND ON TUESDAY...
WILL ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT. DAYSHIFT CAN TALK TO FIRE
USERS TODAY TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

KIND OF A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS CWA WILL BE BTWN THE INTIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE MAIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH POISED TO MOVE IN
BY LATE WEEK. WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH MOST AREAS MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND AS TUESDAY. RH VALUES
COULD ONCE AGAIN FALL TO NEAR 25 PCT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO BACK SIDE OF TROUGH FM WESTERN ALASKA
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN DEEPENING SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AT 12Z FRIDAY
HAD THE LOW OVER WESTERN KS WHILE THE 29/12Z ECMWF SHOWED THE LOW
OVR UPR MICHIGAN. 00Z ECMWF TRENDING MUCH SLOWER AND NOW LOOKS MUCH
CLOSER TO GFS AS IT SHOWS MAIN LOW OVER EASTERN KS WITH INVERTED
TROUGH INTO UPR LAKES. WE WILL SEE OVER NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHETHER
THIS TREND HOLDS. AT THIS POINT...WPC FAVORS SOLUTION CLOSER TO
GFS/UKMET WITH SFC LOW...BUT EVEN HERE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
THURSDAY...THE UKMET LOOKS SIMILAR TO ECMWF WITH INITIAL PLACEMENT
OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND RESULTING SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. 1000-850MB THERMAL GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF NW WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN WI ON THURSDAY. WOULD THINK THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR
BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85 INTERSECTS
THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SECONDARY AREA OF H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT SETS
UP NORTH OF BOUNDARY THURSDAY MORNING...SO HAVE CARRIED HIGHER
CHANCES ALL THE WAY TO LK SUPERIOR. LIKELY POPS SEEM GOOD OVER AT
LEAST SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND THEN FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS CONSENSUS GRIDS INDICATED.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DETAILS PLAY OUT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WE WILL TAKE OUR BEST SHOT AT IT THOUGH.GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD
SLOWER EJECTION OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW...EXPECT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PART OF THAT TIME
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE. DRY SLOT MAY IMPACT POP/WX
SOMETIME AS WELL...THOUGH TO KNOW EXACTLY WHEN THOUGH. ALSO...BETTER
CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THOSE AREAS
ARE IN VCNTY OF SOME MODEST MLCAPES AND ON THE NOSE OF STRONG SW H85
JET.

EVENTUALLY LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH LIKELY A
DEEPENING TREND TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY WHICH
BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. WINDS SURROUNDING SAID DEEPENING
LOW COULD EASILY BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS FORECAST INDICATES. JUST
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO COMPLETELY WITH ONE SOLUTION. STRONGEST
WINDS WOULD BE FRIDAY IN WARM SECTOR THEN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW-N AND PULL IN THE COLDER AIR
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. EITHER TIME FRAME WINDS COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH
IF NOT HIT ADVY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH GUSTS. AS IT LOOKED
YDY...UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPS INTO UPR LAKES WHICH IMPACTS HOW MUCH LK
ENHANCED/LK EFFECT PRECIP WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALSO DIFFERENCES IN HOW COLD IT GETS IN THE BLYR. LATEST ECMWF
ACTUALLY ENDS UP MORE WRAPPED UP WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO GFS AND
SHOWS ENOUGH COOLING TO PROBABLY HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. NO
MENTION OF SNOW NOW THOUGH. JUST TOO MUCH...YOU GUESSED
IT...UNCERTAINTY.

DOES APPEAR COOLING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS INDICATIONS ARE ANOTHER
LARGER SCALE TROUGH RELOADS OVER WESTERN CONUS BY END OF LONG
TERM...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO CNTRL CONUS INCLUDING UPR
LAKES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM NO DOUBT WILL BE LEADING THE CHARGE WITH
THAT UPPER TROUGH...SO PATTERN MAY TURN ACTIVE AGAIN BEYOND NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. STRONG S-SW
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY AOA 20KT TONIGHT AT KIWD BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE
SOMEWHAT AT KCMX/KSAW WHERE LLWS WAS INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

SRLY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THU INTO FRI. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN E-SE WINDS OVER
CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND STRENGTHENING NE WINDS TO 25 KT
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 136 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE 140 KNOT 250-300 MB
JET DRIVING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE PAC NW WHILE
ANOTHER WOUND UP STORM SYSTEM IS NOTED OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN PLAINS STATES.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY DRIVING A 40-50 KT 8H JET ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...SSW WAA WILL INCREASE...BRINGING 12-14C
850 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN WAA HIGH
CLOUDS...SUNSHINE AND MIXING INTO THE 875-850 MB LAYER SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FCST MIXED LAYER WINDS INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE AS NOTED ON 00Z NAM
SNDGS COULD RESULT IN SSW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO DROPPING TO AROUND 40F
THE RESULTING RH VALUES OF AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL ELEVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO/EHWO AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20-30 MPH OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OVER DOWNSLOPING
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MIXING FROM THE WINDS WILL RESULT
IN POOR RH RECOVERY ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA WHERE MAX RH VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 65-75 PCT. THE
WINDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA AND
PERHAPS CLOSER TO 60F FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

H5-H2 HEIGHTS FEATURE A NEGATIVE PNA TELECONNECTION PATTERN WITH
TROUGHING INTO WESTERN CANADA AND CONUS VIA 160+ KT H3-H2 JET
BLASTING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. LEADING SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH SHOWING UP OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHTNING. WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS UPPER LAKES AS IT MOVES ACROSS
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT TIED TO THE WAVE CROSSES UPR
MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF TROUGH.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD TO AROUND H8 BY AFTN WHILE
IT STILL IS WARM ALOFT ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S
AND LIKELY INTO LOWER 80S FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL CWA. DEEP MIXING
ALLOWS DWPNTS TO CRASH INTO THE 30S AS SHOWN BY EXPLICIT MODEL
DWPNTS. BLENDING THIS WITH MIXED LAYER DWPNTS WOULD INDICATE SOME
DWPNTS BY LATE AFTN OVR WESTERN HALF OF CWA MAY FALL INTO THE UPR
20S. AS IT STANDS NOW...EVEN WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR
DWPNTS...RH VALUES FCST TO COME VERY CLOSE TO CRITICAL 25 PCT MARK.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS COMBO OF WARM TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE AFTN AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PEAK GUSTS OVER 30 MPH IN PARTS OF THE WEST AND CNTRL CWA. ALL
TOGETHER WE ARE FIRMLY NEARING CRITERIA FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A PRETTY DRY SEPT IN PARTS OF THE CWA.
BASED ON EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND ON TUESDAY...
WILL ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT. DAYSHIFT CAN TALK TO FIRE
USERS TODAY TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

KIND OF A SIMILAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS CWA WILL BE BTWN THE INTIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE MAIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH POISED TO MOVE IN
BY LATE WEEK. WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH MOST AREAS MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH WIND AS TUESDAY. RH VALUES
COULD ONCE AGAIN FALL TO NEAR 25 PCT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO BACK SIDE OF TROUGH FM WESTERN ALASKA
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY RESULTING IN DEEPENING SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AT 12Z FRIDAY
HAD THE LOW OVER WESTERN KS WHILE THE 29/12Z ECMWF SHOWED THE LOW
OVR UPR MICHIGAN. 00Z ECMWF TRENDING MUCH SLOWER AND NOW LOOKS MUCH
CLOSER TO GFS AS IT SHOWS MAIN LOW OVER EASTERN KS WITH INVERTED
TROUGH INTO UPR LAKES. WE WILL SEE OVER NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHETHER
THIS TREND HOLDS. AT THIS POINT...WPC FAVORS SOLUTION CLOSER TO
GFS/UKMET WITH SFC LOW...BUT EVEN HERE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
THURSDAY...THE UKMET LOOKS SIMILAR TO ECMWF WITH INITIAL PLACEMENT
OF INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND RESULTING SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. 1000-850MB THERMAL GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF NW WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN WI ON THURSDAY. WOULD THINK THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR
BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85 INTERSECTS
THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SECONDARY AREA OF H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT SETS
UP NORTH OF BOUNDARY THURSDAY MORNING...SO HAVE CARRIED HIGHER
CHANCES ALL THE WAY TO LK SUPERIOR. LIKELY POPS SEEM GOOD OVER AT
LEAST SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND THEN FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS CONSENSUS GRIDS INDICATED.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DETAILS PLAY OUT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WE WILL TAKE OUR BEST SHOT AT IT THOUGH.GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD
SLOWER EJECTION OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW...EXPECT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PART OF THAT TIME
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE. DRY SLOT MAY IMPACT POP/WX
SOMETIME AS WELL...THOUGH TO KNOW EXACTLY WHEN THOUGH. ALSO...BETTER
CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THOSE AREAS
ARE IN VCNTY OF SOME MODEST MLCAPES AND ON THE NOSE OF STRONG SW H85
JET.

EVENTUALLY LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH LIKELY A
DEEPENING TREND TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY WHICH
BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. WINDS SURROUNDING SAID DEEPENING
LOW COULD EASILY BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS FORECAST INDICATES. JUST
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO COMPLETELY WITH ONE SOLUTION. STRONGEST
WINDS WOULD BE FRIDAY IN WARM SECTOR THEN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW-N AND PULL IN THE COLDER AIR
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. EITHER TIME FRAME WINDS COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH
IF NOT HIT ADVY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH GUSTS. AS IT LOOKED
YDY...UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPS INTO UPR LAKES WHICH IMPACTS HOW MUCH LK
ENHANCED/LK EFFECT PRECIP WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALSO DIFFERENCES IN HOW COLD IT GETS IN THE BLYR. LATEST ECMWF
ACTUALLY ENDS UP MORE WRAPPED UP WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO GFS AND
SHOWS ENOUGH COOLING TO PROBABLY HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. NO
MENTION OF SNOW NOW THOUGH. JUST TOO MUCH...YOU GUESSED
IT...UNCERTAINTY.

DOES APPEAR COOLING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS INDICATIONS ARE ANOTHER
LARGER SCALE TROUGH RELOADS OVER WESTERN CONUS BY END OF LONG
TERM...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO CNTRL CONUS INCLUDING UPR
LAKES. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM NO DOUBT WILL BE LEADING THE CHARGE WITH
THAT UPPER TROUGH...SO PATTERN MAY TURN ACTIVE AGAIN BEYOND NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. STRONG S-SW
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY AOA 20KT TONIGHT AT KIWD BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE
SOMEWHAT AT KCMX/KSAW WHERE LLWS WAS INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 546 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS
TODAY WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WED AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THU INTO
FRI. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN E-SE WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND STRENGTHENING NE WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE WRN PART
OF THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

 1227 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SHALLOW DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING`S WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS. AT THIS TIME, COVERAGE IS
PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED BETWEEN 1.5KFT-4KFT. CONTINUED MIXING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO UNIFORMLY MIX UP TO
4-5KFT WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF CEILING EXPECTED OWING TO
CONTINUED DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS. MENTION OF BKN COVERAGE HAS
THEREFORE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE 18Z FORECAST. FAVORABLE RADIATING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW MVFR VARIETY FOG LATE TONIGHT, BUT
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MITIGATE A LARGER FOG OR LOW STRATUS
ISSUE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN A CEILING BELOW 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY`S WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SLOWLY EXITING TO
THE SOUTHEAST.  CONSIDERABLE LAG IN THE DEGREE OF POST-FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL DRYING LEAVING AN ENVIRONMENT PRIME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE FRONT FACE OF A GRADUALLY
ENCROACHING SURFACE RIDGE.  THE EARLIER CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER
DRYING TENDING TO FAVOR A DENSE FOG COMPONENT UNDER CONTINUED NEAR
SURFACE SATURATION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  POINTS TO THE SOUTH
STILL CARRYING JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT FLOW AND MOISTURE QUALITY TO
SUPPORT MORE STRATUS.  IN BOTH CASES...SUSPECT IT WILL REQUIRE A
GOOD PART OF THE POST-DAYBREAK MORNING PERIOD TO MIX OUT/LIFT THIS
MOISTURE...AS NOTED PER LATEST RUC GUIDANCE.

VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SETTLES TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE RIDGING SLIPPING EAST.  THE EMERGING ALBEIT WEAK
ADDITIVE WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT INTO A HEALTHY MIDDAY MIXED
LAYER UNDER INCREASING INSOLATION WILL WORK HIGHS BACK TOWARD 70F
THIS AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARMING INTO TONIGHT
AS LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING MIGRATES INTO THE REGION.  WINDOW FOR
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY COMES EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.  LOW TEMPERATURES CAPPED
BY THIS EVOLUTION...BUT STILL LOOKING AT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

LONG TERM...

ENERGETIC FLOW ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BACK
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LEADS TO BIG TIME
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...SEE
12Z EURO VS 00Z GFS/CANADIAN MODELS. INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LOOKS TO BE
ONE OF THE ISSUES.

SOLID HEIGHT RISES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING 925 MB TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 20 C...WITH
850 MB TEMPS INTO THE MID TEENS. AIRMASS SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS IS BASED ON ASSUMPTION THERE WILL BE NO
MORNING FOG/STRATUS. THERE IS ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE SEEN IN
MODELS AT 925 MB TO DRAW SOME CONCERN HOWEVER.

DRY/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP BYE DURING THE TUESDAY EVENING
HOURS...WITH NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS DOES NOT
LOOK MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY...BUT WINDS/MIXING DEPTHS
SHOULD BE LESS...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME MORNING FOG TO BURN OFF AS
WELL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES THURSDAY WITH RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING TOWARD GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM
FRONT SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM BEING ACTIVE WITH THE COPIOUS MOISTURE
ADVECTION...BUT LOCATION MAY BE JUST A BIT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH
(NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN) TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN INTO FRIDAY. SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO WILL SUPPORT
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
ON SATURDAY...PER 00Z EURO. WILL NEED TO WORK THROUGH MODEL
DIFFERENCES/INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENDED FORECAST TO GAUGE
AMOUNT OF WIND AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.  WINDS SLACKEN
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

 1258 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEED/GUSTS AS THEY WERE TOO
HIGH. WINDS ALOFT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS FORECAST PER AREA
VWP. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW.

WAA AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET WAS AIDING IN HIGH CLOUDS
THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE RAP WAS
DOING A DECENT JOB HANDLING THESE CLOUDS AND WE SHOULD SEE THEM BE
THICKEST FOR A TIME THIS MORNING...THEN THEY SHOULD THIN BEFORE WE
SEE CLOUDS THICKEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE SEVENTIES. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AND THEY SHOULD BE STRONGEST
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE COOLER
WITH THE OFF LAKE WINDS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
FIFTIES.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A
LOW OFF TO THE NORTH. GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT WITH
GOOD MIXING DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER OUR MN
CWA...AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY...AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES
NORTHWEST OVER THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS/BIGFORK/WALKER AREAS TO 70 TO
75 OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A COLORADO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS BRING A
COOLING TREND WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO
THE NORTHLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING AT
LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHLAND...AND MAYBE MORE
THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET IN THE WAKE ON THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL NEED TO
CAREFULLY CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL WINDOW FOR SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
DEPENDING ON HOW COLD AND SATURATED THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ARE AT
THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THE GFS. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY...I LEFT THE FORECAST AS RAIN FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

GUSTY WINDS OVER KDLH/KHYR TERMINALS WILL TEND TO DECREASE THIS
AFTN AS LOW LVL JET MAXIMUM SHIFTS TO THE FAR ERN EDGE OF CWA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION VERY QUICKLY TUESDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS INCREASING. MAY SEE A FEW RW NEAR KINL SO ADDED
PROB30 LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF FRONTAL BDRY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  56  73  46 /   0  10   0   0
INL  74  52  68  42 /  10  20  10   0
BRD  76  54  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  74  54  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  74  56  74  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...CANNON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 1108 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEED/GUSTS AS THEY WERE TOO
HIGH. WINDS ALOFT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS FORECAST PER AREA
VWP. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW.

WAA AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET WAS AIDING IN HIGH CLOUDS
THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. THE RAP WAS
DOING A DECENT JOB HANDLING THESE CLOUDS AND WE SHOULD SEE THEM BE
THICKEST FOR A TIME THIS MORNING...THEN THEY SHOULD THIN BEFORE WE
SEE CLOUDS THICKEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE SEVENTIES. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AND THEY SHOULD BE STRONGEST
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE COOLER
WITH THE OFF LAKE WINDS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
FIFTIES.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A
LOW OFF TO THE NORTH. GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT WITH
GOOD MIXING DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER OUR MN
CWA...AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY...AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER SIXTIES
NORTHWEST OVER THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS/BIGFORK/WALKER AREAS TO 70 TO
75 OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A COLORADO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS BRING A
COOLING TREND WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO
THE NORTHLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING AT
LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHLAND...AND MAYBE MORE
THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET IN THE WAKE ON THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL NEED TO
CAREFULLY CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL WINDOW FOR SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA
DEPENDING ON HOW COLD AND SATURATED THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ARE AT
THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THE GFS. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY...I LEFT THE FORECAST AS RAIN FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS APPROACHES THE REGION.
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR
WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT. THERE WILL BE LINGERING
WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING AT KHYR/KDLH/KHIB DUE TO STRONG SW FLOW OF
40 TO 50 KT AROUND 2 KFT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...AND THEN BECOME WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  56  73  46 /   0  10   0   0
INL  74  52  68  42 /  10  20  10   0
BRD  76  54  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  74  54  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  74  56  74  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 221 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ALOFT WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...GENERATING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCREASED SKY AND POPS AS
A RESULT.

DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ALONG
WITH STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOPING. WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO RESIDE. WHILE IT WILL BE BREEZY
FAR WEST AND ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AT THIS TIME MODELS DO
NOT SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAGNITUDES FOR THESE
AREAS...REMAINING MAINLY BELOW 30 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
REEVALUATE AS NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND LATER
TONIGHT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY UPDATED NEAR TERM HOURLY FORECAST USING
CURRENT OBS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA WHICH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE A SLIGHT BIT SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT...BUT STILL
APPROACHING CENTRAL ND BY 00Z. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN EXPECTED IMPACT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS ON TUESDAY APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE H85 WINDS APPROACH 40KTS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS TIGHTEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THE UPDATE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SHORTWAVE SUPPORTED BY 125KT 250MB JET PROGRESSING ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA. CONTINUED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MODELS SHOWING COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL ND BY 00Z. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA. DRY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS IS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TURN WEST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN POISED TO MOVE INTO MANITOBA. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
SOME RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED ACROSS BOTTINEAU COUNTY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT BELIEVE MAY BE VIRGA AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND.

WARM ADVECTION TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT...PROGGED TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY MID-AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FRONT AND WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR IS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS AS WELL.

MORE OF INTEREST IS WINDS. A H300 WESTERLY JET OF 100-120 KNOTS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE AFTERNOON COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT - AND DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THINK THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
AT 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY WEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ALL MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH IN
CANADA. WHILE GRADIENT FORCING AND PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA...MODELS STILL DEPICT GOOD WIND
LINKAGE TO 850MB ALONG WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES THROUGH AT LEAST
900MB ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON MODEL TRENDS
IN CASE A WIND ADVISORY BECOMES WARRANTED.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
WHEN A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES
AND EVENTUALLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...COUPLED
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SHOULD
RESULT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS EAST TO NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS HITTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA HARDEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE DAKOTAS...WHILE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...LIMITING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HERE.

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND AGAIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA RECEIVES THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A COLD
AND RAINY PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH RAIN LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THERE REMAINS A
LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. CAA ARRIVES ALONG TO BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WAA
REDEVELOPING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 40KTS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ002>005-
010>013-021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JNS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 100 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY UPDATED NEAR TERM HOURLY FORECAST USING
CURRENT OBS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA WHICH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE A SLIGHT BIT SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT...BUT STILL
APPROACHING CENTRAL ND BY 00Z. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z TONIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN EXPECTED IMPACT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS ON TUESDAY APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE H85 WINDS APPROACH 40KTS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS TIGHTEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THE UPDATE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SHORTWAVE SUPPORTED BY 125KT 250MB JET PROGRESSING ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA. CONTINUED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MODELS SHOWING COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL ND BY 00Z. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA. DRY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS IS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TURN WEST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN POISED TO MOVE INTO MANITOBA. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
SOME RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED ACROSS BOTTINEAU COUNTY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT BELIEVE MAY BE VIRGA AND NOT REACHING THE
GROUND.

WARM ADVECTION TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT...PROGGED TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY MID-AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITH THIS FRONT AND WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR IS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS AS WELL.

MORE OF INTEREST IS WINDS. A H300 WESTERLY JET OF 100-120 KNOTS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE AFTERNOON COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT - AND DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THINK THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
AT 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY WEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ALL MOISTURE WELL TO OUR NORTH IN
CANADA. WHILE GRADIENT FORCING AND PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA...MODELS STILL DEPICT GOOD WIND
LINKAGE TO 850MB ALONG WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES THROUGH AT LEAST
900MB ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON MODEL TRENDS
IN CASE A WIND ADVISORY BECOMES WARRANTED.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
WHEN A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES
AND EVENTUALLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...COUPLED
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SHOULD
RESULT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS EAST TO NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS HITTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA HARDEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE DAKOTAS...WHILE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR REMAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...LIMITING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HERE.

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND AGAIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA RECEIVES THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A COLD
AND RAINY PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH RAIN LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND THERE REMAINS A
LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A
MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. CAA ARRIVES ALONG TO BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WAA
REDEVELOPING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-30KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 40KTS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JNS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 600 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

AT 3 PM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM MINOT NORTH DAKOTA TO
HURON SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTHEAST A 1018 MB HIGH WAS
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
THERE IS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WAS PRODUCING SUSTAINED SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

FOR THIS EVENING...BOTH THE RAP AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THIS CORRESPONDS TO
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MEANWHILE THE NAM/WRF KEEPS THE
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WITH THEM
TENDENCY OF THE NAM/WRF BEING TOO HIGH WITH ITS WINDS...OPTED TO
FOLLOW THE GFS AND RAP AND END THE WIND GUSTS AROUND 01.00Z. WHILE
THE WIND GUSTS WILL BE ENDING...THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY BELOW 600 MB...EXPECT A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID CLOUDS TO TRANSITION EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING THESE CLOUDS WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 DUE TO THE BEST FORCING TRANSITIONING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO WHAT THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

ON WEDNESDAY...THE 30.12Z MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW
700 MB. HOWEVER THE MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THE WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THIS WOULD PROHIBIT SOME OF THE
POTENTIAL MIXING THAT COULD POTENTIALLY TAKE PLACE. AS A RESULT...
WENT WITH THE CONSALL WHICH LOWERS DEW POINTS TO AROUND 40 ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS IS STILL ABOUT
10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE IN THEM.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LONG WAVE 500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODERATE 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP NOT ONLY
MOISTEN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT HELP PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLY TRICKY BASED ON HOW NORTH THE FRONT GETS.
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. MEANWHILE
THEY WILL BE IN THE 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT.

FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...THE 30.12Z MODELS HAVE
TRANSITIONED MORE TOWARD THE 29.12Z GFS. THEY NOW SHOW THAT A
CLOSED LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
GREATLY ENHANCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. MLCAPES
CLIMB INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
MARGINAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...THE 0-3 KM SHEAR IS
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND GEM ARE THE
FURTHEST SOUTHEAST AND WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE /ALBEIT
SMALL/ OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE IN OUR AREA. MEANWHILE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WOULD TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST. THIS
WOULD TRANSITION ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MORE TOWARD SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DEFINITELY A TIME PERIOD...THAT
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN THE SFC WINDS AS THE MIXING HALTS AND SUN
SETS. GUSTS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS
SOMEWHAT TIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...SO WHILE
THE WINDS WILL LESSEN...THEY WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN MIGHT BE
EXPECTED CLIMATOLOGICALLY. MORE IMPORTANTLY IS AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS...WITH RAP13/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINTING TO
WINDS AROUND 45 KTS IN THE 1-2 KFT LAYER BY 03-06Z. LLWS IS A
CONCERN AT BOTH KLSE/KRST...MORESO IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATION
OF KLSE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN. PASSAGE
LOOKS TO BE NEAR 13-14Z AT KRST AND 14-15Z FOR KLSE.

ASIDE FROM THE WIND CONCERNS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 328 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

AT 3 PM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM MINOT NORTH DAKOTA TO
HURON SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTHEAST A 1018 MB HIGH WAS
CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
THERE IS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WAS PRODUCING SUSTAINED SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

FOR THIS EVENING...BOTH THE RAP AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THIS CORRESPONDS TO
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MEANWHILE THE NAM/WRF KEEPS THE
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WITH THEM
TENDENCY OF THE NAM/WRF BEING TOO HIGH WITH ITS WINDS...OPTED TO
FOLLOW THE GFS AND RAP AND END THE WIND GUSTS AROUND 01.00Z. WHILE
THE WIND GUSTS WILL BE ENDING...THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY BELOW 600 MB...EXPECT A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID CLOUDS TO TRANSITION EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING THESE CLOUDS WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 DUE TO THE BEST FORCING TRANSITIONING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO WHAT THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

ON WEDNESDAY...THE 30.12Z MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW
700 MB. HOWEVER THE MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THE WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THIS WOULD PROHIBIT SOME OF THE
POTENTIAL MIXING THAT COULD POTENTIALLY TAKE PLACE. AS A RESULT...
WENT WITH THE CONSALL WHICH LOWERS DEW POINTS TO AROUND 40 ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS IS STILL ABOUT
10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE IN THEM.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LONG WAVE 500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODERATE 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP NOT ONLY
MOISTEN THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT HELP PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLY TRICKY BASED ON HOW NORTH THE FRONT GETS.
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. MEANWHILE
THEY WILL BE IN THE 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT.

FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...THE 30.12Z MODELS HAVE
TRANSITIONED MORE TOWARD THE 29.12Z GFS. THEY NOW SHOW THAT A
CLOSED LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
GREATLY ENHANCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. MLCAPES
CLIMB INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
MARGINAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...THE 0-3 KM SHEAR IS
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND GEM ARE THE
FURTHEST SOUTHEAST AND WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE /ALBEIT
SMALL/ OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE IN OUR AREA. MEANWHILE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WOULD TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST. THIS
WOULD TRANSITION ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MORE TOWARD SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DEFINITELY A TIME PERIOD...THAT
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND AND LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THE LARGEST IMPACT TO AVIATION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME STABILIZATION OF THE
LOW-LEVELS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH...BUT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR NIGHTTIME.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 1-2KFT...MAKING
FOR A PERIOD OF LLWS AT THE AIRFIELDS. BECAUSE THE KLSE FIELD IS
SHELTERED SOMEWHAT IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT WIND
SHEAR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AIRFIELDS TUESDAY MORNING AND
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST REMOVING ANY LLWS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT