Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/27/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 1002 AM MDT WED SEP 25 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...ONGOING FORECASTS LOOK GOOD. UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
ENOUGH MIXING ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS STILL ON TRACK. WEAK SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20Z AND INCREASE. LATEST
RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DENVER CYCLONE OVER
SOUTHERN WELD COUNTY IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME WHICH MAY PROVIDE
MORE OF A NORTHWEST COMPONENT AT BJC. WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT
DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MOST RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS HAVE FLATTENED OUT OR
RECEDED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER FROM MORGAN COUNTY THROUGH SEDGWICK COUNTY SHOWN SOME
SLIGHT RISES...IN PARTICULAR NEAR WELDONA AND NEAR JULESBURG.
DESPITE THE SLIGHT RISES...MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM MDT WED SEP 25 2013/

SHORT TERM...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT IS SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 50S AND
60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING TROF...AIRMASS IS
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY STORMS OR SHOWERS OVER CWA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH.

LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN
FROM TODAY`S READINGS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CO/NE/KS BORDERS WILL CONTINUE THE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CO
WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT THEN AS THE
TROUGH GETS CLOSER THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THIS DOES LOOK WITH EACH NEW COMPUTER
MODEL RUN TO STAY WEST. THE SURFACE LOW OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER...HAVE 10 PERCENT CHANCE OUT THERE. MAY SEE ONE GROW
STRONGER INTO A STORM...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT OUT FOR NOW AS THE
MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO DECIDE ON THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER THAN LAST SUNDAYS SYSTEM...EXPECTING SNOW
LEVELS TO BE DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 8000 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE FRIDAY TO GET ABOVE 60 DEGREES OVER THE
PLAINS AND WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE MOISTURE
LOOKS TO CONTINUE HEADING SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE
SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD BE DONE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. ALL IN
ALL....SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE FOOTHILLS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS SEEING 2-4 INCHES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR THE PLAINS AND
DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH
SLIGHT RIDGING AND KEEPS MOST ENERGY UP TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE. THEREFORE EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.
SATURDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE WARMING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
THEN EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

AVIATION...VFR WITH SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS
TODAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN
18-20Z. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE AT APA/DEN AS
STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MAY BUMP UP
WIND SPEES A BIT IN NEXT 12Z ISSUANCE.

HYDROLOGY...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FLAT OR
RECEDED SOME OVER THE FRONT RANGE...WHILE LEVELS ON THE SOUTH
PLATTE FROM MORGAN COUNTY OUT THROUGH SEDGWICK COUNTY MAY STILL
SEE SOME SLIGHT RISES FROM RAINFALL FROM MONDAY`S RAINFALL. SOUTH
PLATTE NEAR WELDONA AND NEAR JULESBURG HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT
RISES IN THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY MAJOR
FLOODING ISSUES. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR NEXT 36
HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HYDROLOGIC ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR LOGAN COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM MDT TODAY...

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1052 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
350 AM CDT

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON QUIET WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SHIFTING TO TIMING OF
COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY-EARLY SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ONLY MODEST COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT
HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO CLOSE OUT SEPTEMBER AND START OCTOBER.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. AS ANTICIPATED...EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WAS CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN
DRY ADVECTION...WHILE PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO OUR SOUTH. LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND SMALL TEMPERATURE-DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE RESULTING IN SOME SHALLOW FOG FORMATION
MAINLY WEST OF CHICAGO...WHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS A LITTLE WEAKER.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...AND OFF ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PULLS
SLOWLY AWAY...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LARGE...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL HELP INDUCE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF AN EQUALLY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW. THIS WILL HELP RE-ESTABLISH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC...MAINTAINING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE AXES DRIFT
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY WARMING TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH IMPEDED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
BY ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. TRUE LAKE-COOLING WILL DECREASE A BIT
THURSDAY AND MORESO FRIDAY AS SURFACE WIND BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST.
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THERMALLY...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S TODAY AND THURSDAY (THOUGH APPROACHING 80
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST) AND IN THE LOWER 80S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL INITIALLY WITH
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR LOWS...MODERATING TO MID/UPPER 50S BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MID-TERM...SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST TIMING OF COLD FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH RECENT RUNS HAVING SPED UP THE PROGRESSION A BIT
SINCE YESTERDAY. 00Z ECMWF THE MOST RECENT TO TREND TOWARD AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN IL...AND EXITING NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MOVES
UP THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL...TO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN THE FAR WEST AND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST. RECENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE CWA DRY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FORCING DEPICTED WITH APPROACH OF UPPER
TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...ALONG WITH NARROW BAND OF DEEPER
MOISTURE (PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES PER GFS RUNS) RETURNING
ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORTS A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LOOK MEAGER...WITH VERY
WEAK/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SUGGESTING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE 80S
CWA-WIDE...AS THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERCOME ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
COOLING. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH BE THE MAIN ISSUE FIGHTING
AGAINST THE TEMP CLIMB HOWEVER AND ADDS COMPLEXITY AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE TO THE MAX TEMP FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER. TEMPS EXPECTED RIGHT AROUND NORMAL (UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S) SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY/TUESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS TREND THE UPPER FLOW MORE ZONAL BEHIND THE WEEKEND
TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY/TUESDAY...ALLOWING A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN
SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW. BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH INCREASES SOUTH
RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BACK WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT A FEW 80S
AGAIN BY TUESDAY TO START OCTOBER ON A WARM NOTE.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* NONE.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

ONLY MINOR CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG...
BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS AT ORD/MDW. LIGHT FOG WITH MAINLY MVFR
VIS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST IL AND THIS WILL QUICKLY
LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. SLIGHTLY WARMER URBAN/LAKE EASTERLY FLOW IS
LIKELY HINDERING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ORD/MDW. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS...SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO START
WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10-12KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT SURE HOW
PREVAILING THEY WILL BECOME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
  LATE.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY/VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

310 AM...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MERGES WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC.
THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH END
OF THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OR SO OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AND WHILE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN 10-20KTS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THIS TIME PERIOD COULD BE MORE IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE. WINDS TURN BACK SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORE
SOUTHERLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN SPEEDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT HAS VARIED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NOW HAS SPED UP WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25KTS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT APPEAR ON TRACK WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL LIKELY
SHIFT WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD BE SOMEWHAT STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DURATION OF STRONGER WINDS LOOKS TO BE BRIEF
WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1040 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2013

Latest surface analysis shows 1009mb low centered over northwest
Tennessee. Most of the clouds and showers associated with this
feature have been confined to Kentucky this morning, however both
the HRRR and NAM suggest isolated showers may develop as far north
as southern Illinois this afternoon. Diurnal cloud cover has not
yet begun to develop, but CU-rule indicates SCT-BKN clouds developing
across the southern half of the KILX CWA. Given proximity to
lingering low pressure system and presence of slightly more humid
airmass with dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower 60s, will maintain
slight chance for showers along/south of I-70 through the
afternoon. Elsewhere, expect mostly sunny and dry conditions. High
temps will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, generally
reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 605 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2013

VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period. An upper
level disturbance that produced the widely scattered showers and
storms just south of our TAF sites last night has shifted well
off to our south early this morning. We are seeing a band of
IFR cigs develop south of the TAF sites this morning, roughly
from just south of KUIN to K3LF. Latest HRRR model keeps the
lower cigs and vsbys just south of KSPI and KDEC thanks in large
part to our drier northeasterly flow. Forecast soundings do
suggest development of a sct-bkn cig from 4000-5000 feet,
especially over our southern TAF sites. Further north, the low
levels are drier and as such we are only expecting a scattered
cloud deck with bases around 4500 feet. The clouds should quickly
dissipate by this evening as drier air filters in from the
northeast and east. Look for surface winds today to be out of
the east to northeast at 8 to 13 kts and then out of the east
at 5 to 10 kts tonight.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 235 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2013

Upper low continues to slowly weaken as it moves southeast, and
was located just west of Effingham early this morning. Earlier
showers and scattered thunderstorms have largely diminished in our
area, with radar mosaics showing them continuing in southeast
Missouri. Skies mainly partly cloudy west of I-55, with areas to
the east under a small but concentrated patch of clouds associated
with the upper low.

The main forecast challenge remains with the cold front this
weekend, and associated rain chances.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Will hang on to some slight chance PoPs for the southeast this
morning as the remnants of the upper low depart. Most of the model
hint at some residual PoPs along the Missouri/Illinois border
lingering into this afternoon due to a weak ribbon of energy, but
will keep our forecast dry after noon. Otherwise, high pressure
over the Great Lakes will control our weather late tonight into
Friday. Narrow upper ridge axis overhead will keep mostly clear
conditions, with highs mainly in the lower 80s.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Deep upper trough over the western U.S. to flatten out late this
week as it moves into the Plains. Models have begun to pick up a
bit of speed with this feature as it moves toward the Midwest,
with the GFS the most aggressive. Have included some slight
chances along the Illinois River Valley Saturday afternoon, but
currently appears that the main show will be Saturday night. Have
increased rain chances to around 60% across the west half of the
CWA, and may need to do this across the east if model trends
continue. Currently think most of the rain should be out of the
forecast area by midday, with perhaps a few showers lingering
south of I-70 into early afternoon. The fly in the ointment may be
with a developing low moving northward along the East Coast
Saturday night and Sunday. This low may slow the progression of
the front a bit, but it currently looks like the front should be
east of us before it begins to slow down.

Zonal flow sets up for early in the week, with dry weather for
Monday and Tuesday. Next rain chance would be toward midweek as a
wave moves along the Canadian border, but there is still some
uncertainty in that solution.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 632 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
350 AM CDT

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON QUIET WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SHIFTING TO TIMING OF
COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY-EARLY SUNDAY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ONLY MODEST COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT
HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO CLOSE OUT SEPTEMBER AND START OCTOBER.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE SOUTH...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. AS ANTICIPATED...EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WAS CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN
DRY ADVECTION...WHILE PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO OUR SOUTH. LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND SMALL TEMPERATURE-DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE RESULTING IN SOME SHALLOW FOG FORMATION
MAINLY WEST OF CHICAGO...WHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS A LITTLE WEAKER.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...AND OFF ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA TODAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PULLS
SLOWLY AWAY...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LARGE...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL HELP INDUCE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF AN EQUALLY
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW. THIS WILL HELP RE-ESTABLISH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC...MAINTAINING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE AXES DRIFT
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY WARMING TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH IMPEDED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
BY ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. TRUE LAKE-COOLING WILL DECREASE A BIT
THURSDAY AND MORESO FRIDAY AS SURFACE WIND BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST.
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THERMALLY...SUPPORTING HIGHS
IN THE 70S TODAY AND THURSDAY (THOUGH APPROACHING 80
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST) AND IN THE LOWER 80S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL INITIALLY WITH
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR LOWS...MODERATING TO MID/UPPER 50S BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MID-TERM...SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST TIMING OF COLD FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH RECENT RUNS HAVING SPED UP THE PROGRESSION A BIT
SINCE YESTERDAY. 00Z ECMWF THE MOST RECENT TO TREND TOWARD AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN IL...AND EXITING NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MOVES
UP THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL...TO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN THE FAR WEST AND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EAST. RECENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE CWA DRY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FORCING DEPICTED WITH APPROACH OF UPPER
TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...ALONG WITH NARROW BAND OF DEEPER
MOISTURE (PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES PER GFS RUNS) RETURNING
ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORTS A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LOOK MEAGER...WITH VERY
WEAK/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SUGGESTING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE 80S
CWA-WIDE...AS THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERCOME ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE
COOLING. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH BE THE MAIN ISSUE FIGHTING
AGAINST THE TEMP CLIMB HOWEVER AND ADDS COMPLEXITY AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE TO THE MAX TEMP FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER. TEMPS EXPECTED RIGHT AROUND NORMAL (UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S) SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY/TUESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS TREND THE UPPER FLOW MORE ZONAL BEHIND THE WEEKEND
TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY/TUESDAY...ALLOWING A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN
SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW. BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH INCREASES SOUTH
RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BACK WELL INTO THE 70S IF NOT A FEW 80S
AGAIN BY TUESDAY TO START OCTOBER ON A WARM NOTE.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* NONE. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

ONLY MINOR CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG...
BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS AT ORD/MDW. LIGHT FOG WITH MAINLY MVFR
VIS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST IL AND THIS WILL QUICKLY
LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. SLIGHTLY WARMER URBAN/LAKE EASTERLY FLOW IS
LIKELY HINDERING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ORD/MDW. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS...SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO START
WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10-12KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT SURE HOW
PREVAILING THEY WILL BECOME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
  LATE.
* SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY/VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

310 AM...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MERGES WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC.
THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH END
OF THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OR SO OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AND WHILE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN 10-20KTS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THIS TIME PERIOD COULD BE MORE IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE. WINDS TURN BACK SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORE
SOUTHERLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN SPEEDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT HAS VARIED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NOW HAS SPED UP WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25KTS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT APPEAR ON TRACK WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL LIKELY
SHIFT WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD BE SOMEWHAT STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DURATION OF STRONGER WINDS LOOKS TO BE BRIEF
WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
619 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 235 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2013

Upper low continues to slowly weaken as it moves southeast, and
was located just west of Effingham early this morning. Earlier
showers and scattered thunderstorms have largely diminished in our
area, with radar mosaics showing them continuing in southeast
Missouri. Skies mainly partly cloudy west of I-55, with areas to
the east under a small but concentrated patch of clouds associated
with the upper low.

The main forecast challenge remains with the cold front this
weekend, and associated rain chances.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Will hang on to some slight chance PoPs for the southeast this
morning as the remnants of the upper low depart. Most of the model
hint at some residual PoPs along the Missouri/Illinois border
lingering into this afternoon due to a weak ribbon of energy, but
will keep our forecast dry after noon. Otherwise, high pressure
over the Great Lakes will control our weather late tonight into
Friday. Narrow upper ridge axis overhead will keep mostly clear
conditions, with highs mainly in the lower 80s.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Deep upper trough over the western U.S. to flatten out late this
week as it moves into the Plains. Models have begun to pick up a
bit of speed with this feature as it moves toward the Midwest,
with the GFS the most aggressive. Have included some slight
chances along the Illinois River Valley Saturday afternoon, but
currently appears that the main show will be Saturday night. Have
increased rain chances to around 60% across the west half of the
CWA, and may need to do this across the east if model trends
continue. Currently think most of the rain should be out of the
forecast area by midday, with perhaps a few showers lingering
south of I-70 into early afternoon. The fly in the ointment may be
with a developing low moving northward along the East Coast
Saturday night and Sunday. This low may slow the progression of
the front a bit, but it currently looks like the front should be
east of us before it begins to slow down.

Zonal flow sets up for early in the week, with dry weather for
Monday and Tuesday. Next rain chance would be toward midweek as a
wave moves along the Canadian border, but there is still some
uncertainty in that solution.

Geelhart


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 605 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2013

VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period. An upper
level disturbance that produced the widely scattered showers and
storms just south of our TAF sites last night has shifted well
off to our south early this morning. We are seeing a band of
IFR cigs develop south of the TAF sites this morning, roughly
from just south of KUIN to K3LF. Latest HRRR model keeps the
lower cigs and vsbys just south of KSPI and KDEC thanks in large
part to our drier northeasterly flow. Forecast soundings do
suggest development of a sct-bkn cig from 4000-5000 feet,
especially over our southern TAF sites. Further north, the low
levels are drier and as such we are only expecting a scattered
cloud deck with bases around 4500 feet. The clouds should quickly
dissipate by this evening as drier air filters in from the
northeast and east. Look for surface winds today to be out of
the east to northeast at 8 to 13 kts and then out of the east
at 5 to 10 kts tonight.

Smith
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1237 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
246 PM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE DECAYING UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
TIMING/IMPACTS OF WEEKEND SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IOWA CONTINUES WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD
INTO THE RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY...THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF TAKE
THIS SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK AND SHOW IT EVOLVING
INTO A SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OFF THE EAST COAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK! MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT BRUSHES BY OUR AREA
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES
FROM THE MID LEVEL DECK CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST LATER WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF
SUNSHINE AND A SLOW WARMING TREND. WARMING TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
WITH SOME DEGREE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
EXPECT TEMPS OVER NE IL (ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE) TO REMAIN
A BIT COOLER.

IZZI

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES AND THE
CANADIAN...HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH FROPA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...FEEL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLOWER PROGRESSION SIMILAR TO 00Z
ECMWF. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SQUARELY OVERHEAD ON SAT/850 MB TEMPS
MID TEENS AND 925 MB TEMPS NEARING 20C/AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND MIXING UP TO 850 MB. THUS HAVE
RAISED TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE BLEND AND A BIT ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TO LOW/MID 80S.

FASTER GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST FRONTAL PRECIP INTO WESTERN CWA BY
SATURDAY EVENING...BUT MAINTAINED SLOWER IDEA FROM PREVIOUS FCST
WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CHANCE POPS INTO
SUNDAY...DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. MINIMAL
MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULT MEAGER INSTABILITY (AT BEST) WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH OF A THREAT FOR THUNDER...BUT DUE TO SHARPNESS OF
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IN WITH FRONT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. THE EVOLUTION OF CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER IOWA TODAY THAT COULD SPUR HYBRID TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY PLAY A
ROLE IN SPEED OF PROGRESSION OF SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES.

THEN BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...AIRMASS WILL BE OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN...RESULTING IN HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
AND THEN STRONG HEIGHT RISES OVER CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY COULD
YIELD TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. HAVE GONE ABOVE
STRAIGHT GUIDANCE BLEND TO LOW-MID 70S MON AND SOLIDLY MID 70S
TUESDAY CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON UPPER AIR CLIMO. HOWEVER
A PEAK AT 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS MONDAY COULD BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY
THANKS TO COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIVING IN FROM
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

RC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* NONE. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKES REGION WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY BUT MAY VARY EASTERLY AT TIMES AND
THEN TURN NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 KTS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SPEEDS THEN DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT/SHALLOW FOG TOWARD
SUNRISE...MAINLY IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...

305 PM...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
SHIFT EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. A STRONGER IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTH INTO MANITOBA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN ELONGATE AND MERGE WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT LIFTED INTO MANITOBA...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

KREIN

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1154 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 859 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2013

Showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed to the south and
southwest of the area and will be moving north into the region
this evening. HRRR model has a fairly good handle on this and
identifies where the strongest area will be. HRRR pushes the pcpn
into the area south of a Jacksonville to Paris line through 06z
and then weakens the pcpn after midnight. So will be updating the
pops/wx in the forecast for this evening, reflecting closer to
what the new HRRR model run shows. Clouds will remain partly to
mostly cloudy as well. Remainder of the forecast looks fine. So,
updated forecast for pops/wx will be forthcoming shortly.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2013

VFR conditions will continue at all sites next 24hrs. Clouds are
scattered to broken across the area with mostly mid and high
clouds present. Some lower clouds at 5kft are there but those
clouds seem to be dissipating as the pcpn dissipates in southwest
IL. Pcpn is not getting as far north as thought adn with clouds
warming believe only VCSH is all that is warranted at SPI and DEC
for a few hours. So will have mid clouds at all sites and
scattered clouds around 6kft at SPI and DEC with VCSH for few
hours. Then mostly sct-bkn mid clouds will be seen at all sites
remainder of the day and into the evening. Winds will be east and
then become northeast during the day and then back east tomorrow evening.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 243 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2013
Mostly quiet weather for the forecast with a couple of exceptions.
The first one is the weak low pressure system in northern MO this
afternoon and the associated series of upper waves. Several small
disturbances rotating through the 500mb trof resulting in a
continuation of pops through the overnight hours for the southern
half of Illinois. Quiet and slowly warming temperatures through
the first half of the weekend until the next weather maker moves
through the Midwest late Saturday/Sunday with a return of showers
and thunderstorms for the region. For the most part, models in
good agreement...however, frontal passage over the weekend is a
bit more problematic in regards to timing in previous runs. 12z
runs have better continuity and dry out the Midwest again for the
start of next week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight and tomorrow...
Upper low moving through the region tonight and tomorrow morning,
becoming more of an open wave tomorrow as the surface low dives to
the southeast and weakens. Sat imagery this afternoon showing
several distinct disturbances in the broader trof. In combination
with enough moisture to the southeast to sustain some sct showers
and thunder this morning...will keep the low chance pops in the
south/southeast through the overnight hours. Slight chance pops in
the south for tomorrow will remain in place for the
slowing/opening of the upper trof and general diffuse potential
for any mesoscale triggers. Widespread showers not anticipated
with this system. Overnight lows tonight a little warmer with
expected cloud cover, especially in the southeast. Guidance for
tomorrow night a little more spread with some variability in
residual moisture/clouds in the region with the more open wave.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Slowly moderating temperatures through the end of the week...with
midlevel temps climbing from 10C to closer to 15-16C as the
thermal ridge to the west shifts eastward across the country. Dry
weather anticipated until the next cold front late Saturday.
Though timing has been a bit conflicted over the last few runs,
the 12z models are far more together with the timing...but a
little less so with the location of the main sfc low. ECMWF
further south, which would likely impact strength of dynamics for
the storms to pull from. GFS further north with the best energy
and leaving a narrow and quick progression through the region.
ECMWF also magnifying a low in the Atlantic which may or may not
impact timing of the exit of the front in the next few runs. For
now, precip confined to Sat night through Sun night with best
chances Sat night/Sunday. Cooler start to the next work week behind
the front.

HJS


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 323 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND A LITTLE
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

PRECIP HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS
EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AN AREA NEAR ST
LOUIS AND ANOTHER AREA ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
OVERNIGHT IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE. STILL
MAINLY FOCUSING SHOWER CHANCES ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. TEMPS LOOK
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND DID NOT REQUIRE ADJUSTMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  MODELS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
FORCING MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.  SOME MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WHILE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
ARE STILL VERY DRY.   NAM HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN
PUSHING MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION AND MOST ENSEMBLES INDICATE LATE OR
NO PRECIPITATION.  WILL MENTION LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.

WILL KEEP ALL AREAS DRY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKVILLE TO
INDIANAPOLIS AND RUSHVILLE LINE.  CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...A MOS
BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF OUR REGION UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. FORCING IS WEEK...SO WILL GO MORE THAN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2-3 ROW OF COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AND MODELS BUILD AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AND
ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. WENT CLOSE A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATES...EXCEPT A TAD LOWER AT INDY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARM DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY SPED UP ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH RAINFALL LIKELY TO REACH WESTERN COUNTIES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE FAVORED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE ECMWF AND GGEM CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD SERVE TO DELAY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY
POPS SUNDAY AS A DEEP YET NARROW MOISTURE PLUME ACCOMPANIES THE
BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT ESTABLISHES. ECMWF AND OP GFS BOTH HINT AT A DRY
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BUT
LIKELY NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH COLDER AIR BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. LOWS AROUND
60 SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL FALL BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT HUF AND BMG AFTER 09Z. WOULD ALSO NOT
RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
CLEARING AFTER 23Z AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.

WINDS WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST LESS THAN 8 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1250 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND A LITTLE
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

PRECIP HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS
EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AN AREA NEAR ST
LOUIS AND ANOTHER AREA ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
OVERNIGHT IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE. STILL
MAINLY FOCUSING SHOWER CHANCES ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. TEMPS LOOK
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND DID NOT REQUIRE ADJUSTMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  MODELS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
FORCING MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.  SOME MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WHILE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
ARE STILL VERY DRY.   NAM HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN
PUSHING MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION AND MOST ENSEMBLES INDICATE LATE OR
NO PRECIPITATION.  WILL MENTION LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.

WILL KEEP ALL AREAS DRY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKVILLE TO
INDIANAPOLIS AND RUSHVILLE LINE.  CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...A MOS
BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF OUR REGION UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. FORCING IS WEEK...SO WILL GO MORE THAN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2-3 ROW OF COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AND MODELS BUILD AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AND
ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. WENT CLOSE A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATES...EXCEPT A TAD LOWER AT INDY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH RIDGING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHERN U.S.
MODELS ARE INDICATING A NARROW BUT WELL-DEFINED PLUME OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THAT FRONT.  LATEST INITIALIZATION SEEMS
TO BE FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS OVER THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS
PRECIP INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
INITIALIZATION WAS ALSO TRENDING TOWARD LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY... SO
DECIDED TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS DUE TO SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT.  TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 80S ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET CLOSER TO NORMAL IN WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT HUF AND BMG AFTER 09Z. WOULD ALSO NOT
RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
CLEARING AFTER 23Z AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.

WINDS WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST LESS THAN 8 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 236 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

UPDATED FOR OBSERVED CONDITIONS TO BLEND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST. THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

SHOWERS WHICH AFFECTED MOST PLACES FROM KJKL SOUTH WERE LARGELY ON
THE WAY OUT LATE THIS MORNING. 12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR STILL GENERATE
MORE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING A DROP BACK TO NOTHING MORE THAN
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST PLACES IN THE SOUTH. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN FOR THE SOUTH...BUT EXPECTED INSTABILITY REALLY LOOKS
MEAGER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

DID A QUICK GRID UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR/RAP13. ALSO TWEAKED
T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
THIS IS BRINGING A BATCH OF NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAVE ENDED FOR NOW.
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVER EAST KENTUCKY AND THESE ARE
HELPING TO KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SUPPORTING
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTHEAST TO MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE...
WINDS ARE LIGHT THROUGH THE CWA AND DEW POINTS VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 6OS IN THE SOUTH.

THE MODELS HAVE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM THAT
CONSISTS OF A BROAD TROUGH CROSSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ROLLING EAST ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGING EVENTUALLY FOLLOWS THIS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW DEPARTS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS EVOLUTION...THERE REMAINS SOME SUBSTANTIAL QPF DIFFERENCES
THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS AND OTHER SENSIBLE
PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN BELOW AVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE FOLLOWED THE LATEST HRRR...NAM12...AND ECMWF MOST CLOSELY FOR WX
SPECIFICS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY
TARGETING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...THE LATEST HRRR
AND RAP13 DEPICT THE HIGHER POPS AND BETTER QPF A BIT FARTHER NORTH
TODAY THAN THE NAM12 AND ECMWF SUGGEST. FOR THAT REASON HAVE LIFTED
THE HIGHER POPS AND SOME QPF A BIT NORTH OF MODEL CONSENSUS. POCKETS
OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM LONGER DURATION SHOWERS...AND A POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING...WILL LIKELY LEAVE BEHIND UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME
PLACES THROUGHOUT THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. WILL ADD THIS MENTION TO
THE HWO. THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TONIGHT AND ENDS ALL BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER PCPN THREAT FOR THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP DURING THE MORNING ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. IN THE FAR EAST...CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER
ALONG WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR A SHOWER IN THE MORNING.

USED THE CONSSHORT AND ITS BC VERSION TO INITIATE THE TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...THEN THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. FOR
TEMPERATURES...USED THE CONSSHORT THROUGH MID MORNING BLENDED WITH A
DIURNAL CURVE BASED ON THE NAM12 AFTER SLIGHTLY MODIFYING THE
CONSALL MAX AND MIN TEMPS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A TAD CLOSER TO
THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN WENT MAINLY DRY ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
LOWER HALF OF EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDER TO THE TAF SITES FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PASSAGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
LOWER CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO MVFR...AND PROBABLY BRIEFLY IFR...THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AS VFR CIGS AND VIS RETURN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF ANY STRAY STORM.A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
PROVIDING A DRY AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS KENTUCKY. MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL...THIS
FEATURE HAS LOOKED WEAKER AND WEAKER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
FORCING ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THUS...ONLY GOING TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT UP NEAR THE AREA ON
MONDAY...PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOWERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY IS TO DRY THINGS OUT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GOOD CHANCE MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL
REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE A SLIGHT
DIP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED
IFR. THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN BE
ON THE DECLINE WITH MOST OF THEM DYING OUT BY 02Z. CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. MOST PLACES
SHOULD DROP TO IFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BEGINNING AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 116 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

UPDATED FOR OBSERVED CONDITIONS TO BLEND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST. THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

SHOWERS WHICH AFFECTED MOST PLACES FROM KJKL SOUTH WERE LARGELY ON
THE WAY OUT LATE THIS MORNING. 12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR STILL GENERATE
MORE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING A DROP BACK TO NOTHING MORE THAN
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST PLACES IN THE SOUTH. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN FOR THE SOUTH...BUT EXPECTED INSTABILITY REALLY LOOKS
MEAGER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

DID A QUICK GRID UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR/RAP13. ALSO TWEAKED
T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
THIS IS BRINGING A BATCH OF NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAVE ENDED FOR NOW.
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVER EAST KENTUCKY AND THESE ARE
HELPING TO KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SUPPORTING
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTHEAST TO MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE...
WINDS ARE LIGHT THROUGH THE CWA AND DEW POINTS VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 6OS IN THE SOUTH.

THE MODELS HAVE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM THAT
CONSISTS OF A BROAD TROUGH CROSSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ROLLING EAST ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGING EVENTUALLY FOLLOWS THIS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW DEPARTS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS EVOLUTION...THERE REMAINS SOME SUBSTANTIAL QPF DIFFERENCES
THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS AND OTHER SENSIBLE
PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN BELOW AVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE FOLLOWED THE LATEST HRRR...NAM12...AND ECMWF MOST CLOSELY FOR WX
SPECIFICS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY
TARGETING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...THE LATEST HRRR
AND RAP13 DEPICT THE HIGHER POPS AND BETTER QPF A BIT FARTHER NORTH
TODAY THAN THE NAM12 AND ECMWF SUGGEST. FOR THAT REASON HAVE LIFTED
THE HIGHER POPS AND SOME QPF A BIT NORTH OF MODEL CONSENSUS. POCKETS
OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM LONGER DURATION SHOWERS...AND A POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING...WILL LIKELY LEAVE BEHIND UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME
PLACES THROUGHOUT THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. WILL ADD THIS MENTION TO
THE HWO. THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TONIGHT AND ENDS ALL BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER PCPN THREAT FOR THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP DURING THE MORNING ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. IN THE FAR EAST...CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER
ALONG WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR A SHOWER IN THE MORNING.

USED THE CONSSHORT AND ITS BC VERSION TO INITIATE THE TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...THEN THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. FOR
TEMPERATURES...USED THE CONSSHORT THROUGH MID MORNING BLENDED WITH A
DIURNAL CURVE BASED ON THE NAM12 AFTER SLIGHTLY MODIFYING THE
CONSALL MAX AND MIN TEMPS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A TAD CLOSER TO
THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN WENT MAINLY DRY ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY AND PLEASANT STRETCH
OF WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS KENTUCKY. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL...THIS FEATURE HAS LOOKED WEAKER AND WEAKER
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE FORCING ALMOST NON-EXISTENT.
THUS...ONLY GOING TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS
IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE
FRONT UP NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY...PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW
SHOWERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY IS TO DRY
THINGS OUT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GOOD
CHANCE MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE A SLIGHT DIP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
LOWER HALF OF EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDER TO THE TAF SITES FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PASSAGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
LOWER CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO MVFR...AND PROBABLY BRIEFLY IFR...THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AS VFR CIGS AND VIS RETURN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF ANY STRAY STORM.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1052 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

SHOWERS WHICH AFFECTED MOST PLACES FROM KJKL SOUTH WERE LARGELY ON
THE WAY OUT LATE THIS MORNING. 12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR STILL GENERATE
MORE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING A DROP BACK TO NOTHING MORE THAN
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST PLACES IN THE SOUTH. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN FOR THE SOUTH...BUT EXPECTED INSTABILITY REALLY LOOKS
MEAGER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

DID A QUICK GRID UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR/RAP13. ALSO TWEAKED
T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
THIS IS BRINGING A BATCH OF NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAVE ENDED FOR NOW.
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVER EAST KENTUCKY AND THESE ARE
HELPING TO KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SUPPORTING
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTHEAST TO MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE...
WINDS ARE LIGHT THROUGH THE CWA AND DEW POINTS VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 6OS IN THE SOUTH.

THE MODELS HAVE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM THAT
CONSISTS OF A BROAD TROUGH CROSSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ROLLING EAST ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGING EVENTUALLY FOLLOWS THIS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW DEPARTS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS EVOLUTION...THERE REMAINS SOME SUBSTANTIAL QPF DIFFERENCES
THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS AND OTHER SENSIBLE
PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN BELOW AVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE FOLLOWED THE LATEST HRRR...NAM12...AND ECMWF MOST CLOSELY FOR WX
SPECIFICS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY
TARGETING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THAT SAID...THE LATEST HRRR
AND RAP13 DEPICT THE HIGHER POPS AND BETTER QPF A BIT FARTHER NORTH
TODAY THAN THE NAM12 AND ECMWF SUGGEST. FOR THAT REASON HAVE LIFTED
THE HIGHER POPS AND SOME QPF A BIT NORTH OF MODEL CONSENSUS. POCKETS
OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM LONGER DURATION SHOWERS...AND A POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING...WILL LIKELY LEAVE BEHIND UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN SOME
PLACES THROUGHOUT THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. WILL ADD THIS MENTION TO
THE HWO. THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TONIGHT AND ENDS ALL BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER PCPN THREAT FOR THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP DURING THE MORNING ON THURSDAY WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. IN THE FAR EAST...CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER
ALONG WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR A SHOWER IN THE MORNING.

USED THE CONSSHORT AND ITS BC VERSION TO INITIATE THE TD AND WIND
GRIDS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...THEN THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. FOR
TEMPERATURES...USED THE CONSSHORT THROUGH MID MORNING BLENDED WITH A
DIURNAL CURVE BASED ON THE NAM12 AFTER SLIGHTLY MODIFYING THE
CONSALL MAX AND MIN TEMPS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A TAD CLOSER TO
THE HIGHER MET NUMBERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN WENT MAINLY DRY ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY AND PLEASANT STRETCH
OF WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS KENTUCKY. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL...THIS FEATURE HAS LOOKED WEAKER AND WEAKER
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE FORCING ALMOST NON-EXISTENT.
THUS...ONLY GOING TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS
IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE
FRONT UP NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY...PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW
SHOWERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY IS TO DRY
THINGS OUT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GOOD
CHANCE MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE A SLIGHT DIP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
LOWER HALF OF EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDER TO THE TAF SITES FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PASSAGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
LOWER CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO MVFR...AND PROBABLY BRIEFLY IFR...THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AS VFR CIGS AND VIS RETURN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF ANY STRAY STORM.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 934 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING AND ALLOW A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
934 PM UPDATE...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CEILINGS MOSTLY AROUND 4K FT AGL. THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS SHOWING
UP ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING WAS LITTLE
CHANGED FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW
750 MILLIBARS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME VERY
SLOW CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ONCE
AGAIN SLOW THE CLEARING BY A FEW HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY REMAIN M/CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY FRI MORNING.

631 PM UPDATE... THERE ARE A COUPLE OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
PARTS OF AROOSTOOK AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...MOST
AREAS ARE STILL OVC035. THE TIME HEIGHT FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A LOT OF MOISTURE BELOW 750 MILLIBARS TONIGHT...AND IT
MAY BE VERY TOUGH TO GET RID OF THE CLOUDS UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HRRR APPEARS WAY TOO QUICK TO ERODE
THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO SLOW THE CLEARING
BY A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ADVECTING FROM
THE CROWN OF MAINE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS BANGOR BY LATE NIGHT. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE SJV TO THE UPPER 40S FOR DOWN EAST
AND BANGOR WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND MILDER RIGHT THROUGH THIS TERM.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND
PROVIDING A WELL NEEDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE EMCWFMOS/BCMOS FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE 2 W/OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE BCMOS AND GMOS SHOWING
READINGS EXPECTED TO HIT THE 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.
THE COAST COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEA BREEZE AND WEAK ON SHORE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FCST LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE W/THE ONLY DISRUPTION
BEING A SUB-TROPICAL LOW MOVING UP FROM THE BERMUDA AREA GIVING A
GLANCING BLOW MAINLY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST/OUTER ISLAND. THE
TIME FRAME FOR THIS WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 12Z
ECWMF RUN MATCHED UP W/ITS 00Z RUN OF BRINGING THE SUB-TROPICAL
SYSTEM MME AND PASSING THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IF SCENARIO WERE
TO TAKE PLACE, THE OUTER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WOULD SKIRT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE OUTER ISLANDS. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND
GEM GLOBAL KEEP THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST W/THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION STAYING ON THE DRY SIDE. ATTM, DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF ALL
3 AS SOME THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF. THEREFORE, KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY INTO TUESDAY AND
HUNG ON TO A 20-30% CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE
OUTER ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
APPEAR TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRES RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AOA NORMAL. DECIDED TO
BLEND THE BCMOS INCLUDING THE ECMWF FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THE
GMOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE ESTABLISHED
PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY OVC040 AT THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH THE CLOUDS BECOMING SCT
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SJV AND COULD IMPACT THE
KFVE TERMINAL FROM 08-13Z. KBGR AND KBHB WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR
BUT MAY BRIEFLY GO BACK DOWN TO MVFR FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. VFR AND
LIGHT WIND EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FRI.

SHORT TERM: VFR RUNNING RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS AND SEAS MOSTLY AROUND 2 FT ON
THE COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FOOT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. AS WINDS ADD SEAS ARE FCST TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WE AREA TALKING WINDS OF 10 KTS RIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWELL TO BE GENERATED BY
MONDAY FROM THE LOW APCHG FROM THE S. ADJUSTED THE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/MCW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/MCW/FITZSIMMONS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 341 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

LAKE SUPERIOR DOMINATED BY LOW STRATUS/FOG LAYER WHILE INLAND
AREAS ARE SUNNY UNDER A DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE. MAJOR
UPPER TROF OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS AMPLIFYING COURTESY OF 140KT
UPPER JET ON SWRN FLANK OF CIRCULATION. A SWRLY MID LVL FLOW IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THE
WRN CWA. WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE CWA
AS CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY OVER WRN HI PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

TONIGHT...EXPECT AREA OF CLOUDS/FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO ADVECT
INLAND AS SFC HEATING DECREASES. LATEST HRRR 3KM SHOWS HIGHEST PROB
OF LOWEST VIS ALONG NSHORE...TWIN PORTS...AND CHEQUAMEGON BAY.WILL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONSIDERING THE PRESENCE OF THE DENSE
FOG OVER THE LAKE AND ITS LIKELY PENETRATION INLAND. LATEST HI-RES
MDLS SUGGEST FOG BANK MAY TRY TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL USE PATCHY FOG FOR POTENTIAL OF LIGHT
WINDS/SATURATION IN NEAR SFC LAYER.

TOMORROW...DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MAIN ISSUE TOMORROW WILL BE INCREASE IN
GUSTY SE WINDS. LATEST BUFKIT MOMENTUM PROFILES INDICATE GUSTS TO
35 AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER NE MN ZONES BY
AFTN.




.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE JAMES BAY AREA NEAR HUDSON BAY.
MEANWHILE...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. IN BETWEEN WE WILL BE IN SW FLOW. THE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. QPF AMOUNTS VARY...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE MN SIDE OF OUR CWA. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EDGES EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING A POTENTIALLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE MN SIDE ONCE AGAIN. A SHORTWAVE AND
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A
WET PERIOD TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS FASTEST AT PUSHING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF BEING SLOWER. WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE ABOVE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART. BY SUNDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND EVEN SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE CLEARED OFF FOR ALL OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG REMAINED ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AGAIN STREAM INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS
OF THE ARROWHEAD DURING THE EVENING...BECOMING DENSE ONCE AGAIN.
HAVE HIT FOG HARD FOR THE NIGHT AND EARLY ON THURSDAY. THINK THE
MAJORITY OF SITES WILL NOT SEE THE DENSE FOG BUT MORE PATCHY FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  72  56  75 /   0   0  10  10
INL  50  75  57  69 /   0   0  10  70
BRD  53  81  61  72 /   0   0  10  40
HYR  46  74  57  79 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  46  72  57  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ020-021-037.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 1258 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

UPDATE FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS EXTENSION OF FOG/STRATUS DECK
EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INLAND TO SRN CARLTON COUNTY. HI RES
MDL SFC COND PRESS DEFICITS SEEM TO REASONABLY HANDLE THE FEATURE
. SHOULD HAVE A PERIOD OF CLEARING/IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING. HRRR 3KM/DLHWRF SHOWS
INCREASING NE WIND INTO HEAD OF LAKE LATER TODAY WHICH MAY PUSH
STRATUS/FG INLAND SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY/WX
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATUS/FG. ALTHOUGH WARMING HAS BEEN DELAYED...FCST
MAX TEMPS HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH INTO 60S NEAR LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING...WITH LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS THROUGH 9
AM...AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND THE PERIPHERY OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE AN AREA OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VERY QUIET
IN THE SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK WAA IN THE
MID/LOW LEVELS THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED A SHARP INVERSION TO FORM
AND...COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...SHOULD SEE FOG BURN OFF BY 9-10 AM.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...INTO THE UPPER 60S AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND. IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/NE/WY AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL SEE S/SE WINDS INCREASE. A TIGHTENING
SFC PRES GRADIENT COMBINED WITH MODEST BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS 20 TO 25
MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER NE MN. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
EAST INTO NW WI.

THE SFC PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE SOUTH WINDS TO BE EVEN
STRONGER ON THURSDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY WILL
ALSO DRAW UP A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...CLOSE TO 80 OVER NE MN...AND
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN WI. DWPTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE S/SE
WINDS...WINDS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE E/NELY AND STRONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE COOLER AIR OVER THE LAKE TO SPILL INTO THE
NEAR LAKE AREAS...INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS. THE DULUTH/SUPERIOR
AREA ON THUR COULD ACTUALLY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE THE QUICKEST WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY BRING RAIN TO THE WESTERN
EDGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE GEM/NAM KEEP THE RAIN OUT
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ON FRIDAY ALL MODELS BRING
RAIN WITH SOME ISOLD THUNDER TO ALL BUT NW WI AS DRY AIR HANGS ON
FROM THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE KEPT NW WI DRY ON
FRIDAY AND BEGUN TO RAMP UP POPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA.
THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER STRONG SW FLOW WITH H85 LLJ TO 45 KT AND
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE STRONG FLOW MOVING OVER THIS AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGING OVER NW WI BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER NE MN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS MAKE IT DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. HAVE MENTIONS OF ISOLD THUNDER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. UPPER TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS BEGIN TO WIND DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES E OF THE FA. HAVE TRENDED
THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. LINGERED SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN NW WI AREA
DUE TO TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE MODELS SUNDAY MORNING. DID REMOVE
THE RAIN MENTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP.
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN COMES INTO FOCUS ON TUESDAY AS NEXT COLD
FRONT IS DUE TO CROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE CLEARED OFF FOR ALL OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG REMAINED ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AGAIN STREAM INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS
OF THE ARROWHEAD DURING THE EVENING...BECOMING DENSE ONCE AGAIN.
HAVE HIT FOG HARD FOR THE NIGHT AND EARLY ON THURSDAY. THINK THE
MAJORITY OF SITES WILL NOT SEE THE DENSE FOG BUT MORE PATCHY FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  49  72  60 /   0   0   0  10
INL  73  48  75  58 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  73  53  81  62 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  71  45  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  69  44  72  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

 1028 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS EXTENSION OF FOG/STRATUS DECK
EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INLAND TO SRN CARLTON COUNTY. HI RES
MDL SFC COND PRESS DEFICITS SEEM TO REASONABLY HANDLE THE FEATURE
. SHOULD HAVE A PERIOD OF CLEARING/IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT INLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING. HRRR 3KM/DLHWRF SHOWS
INCREASING NE WIND INTO HEAD OF LAKE LATER TODAY WHICH MAY PUSH
STRATUS/FG INLAND SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY/WX
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATUS/FG. ALTHOUGH WARMING HAS BEEN DELAYED...FCST
MAX TEMPS HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH INTO 60S NEAR LAKE.




&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING...WITH LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS THROUGH 9
AM...AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND THE PERIPHERY OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE AN AREA OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VERY QUIET
IN THE SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK WAA IN THE
MID/LOW LEVELS THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED A SHARP INVERSION TO FORM
AND...COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...SHOULD SEE FOG BURN OFF BY 9-10 AM.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...INTO THE UPPER 60S AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...AND LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND. IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/NE/WY AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL SEE S/SE WINDS INCREASE. A TIGHTENING
SFC PRES GRADIENT COMBINED WITH MODEST BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS 20 TO 25
MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER NE MN. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE
EAST INTO NW WI.

THE SFC PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND LIFTS TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE SOUTH WINDS TO BE EVEN
STRONGER ON THURSDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY WILL
ALSO DRAW UP A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...CLOSE TO 80 OVER NE MN...AND
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN WI. DWPTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE S/SE
WINDS...WINDS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE E/NELY AND STRONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE COOLER AIR OVER THE LAKE TO SPILL INTO THE
NEAR LAKE AREAS...INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS. THE DULUTH/SUPERIOR
AREA ON THUR COULD ACTUALLY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE THE QUICKEST WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY BRING RAIN TO THE WESTERN
EDGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE GEM/NAM KEEP THE RAIN OUT
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ON FRIDAY ALL MODELS BRING
RAIN WITH SOME ISOLD THUNDER TO ALL BUT NW WI AS DRY AIR HANGS ON
FROM THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE KEPT NW WI DRY ON
FRIDAY AND BEGUN TO RAMP UP POPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA.
THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER STRONG SW FLOW WITH H85 LLJ TO 45 KT AND
EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE STRONG FLOW MOVING OVER THIS AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGING OVER NW WI BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE OVER NE MN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS MAKE IT DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. HAVE MENTIONS OF ISOLD THUNDER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. UPPER TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THINGS BEGIN TO WIND DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES E OF THE FA. HAVE TRENDED
THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. LINGERED SOME POPS OVER THE EASTERN NW WI AREA
DUE TO TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE MODELS SUNDAY MORNING. DID REMOVE
THE RAIN MENTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP.
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN COMES INTO FOCUS ON TUESDAY AS NEXT COLD
FRONT IS DUE TO CROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL QUICKLY ERODE THIS
MORNING AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  49  72  60 /   0   0   0  10
INL  73  48  75  58 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  73  53  81  62 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  71  45  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  69  44  72  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 1141 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

Relatively tranquil weather will prevail through much of the next 36
hours, with the one potential exception this afternoon.

As of early this afternoon, a surface low pressure center in the
process of occluding was analyzed near Kansas City, moving
east-southeastward. The shortwave trough aloft was nearly vertically
stacked, with the H85-H5 within 150 miles of the occluding surface
low. Visible satellite imagery has shown a gradual increase in
low-level cumulus, with clearing persistent ahead of the surface
low. A narrow corridor of weak instability has begun to develop
within a southeast to northwest arc. Short-term model guidance has
shown a forecast increase in 0-3km CAPE of up to 200-400J/Kg by
late afternoon over northeast portions of the EAX forecast area.
While the forecast instability is modest at best, this in
combination with strong vertical ascent may promote low-topped
convection to develop by mid to late afternoon. The RUC, NAM, GFS,
GEM, and HRRR outputs all suggest convection to develop in
northeastern sections of the CWA. With an environment characterized
by sufficient instability to maintain low-topped convection,
concomitant with moderate low-level (sfc-H85) directional wind shear
and moderate surface vorticity, the potential exists for a transient
funnel cloud or two underneath persistent updraft bases later this
afternoon in any mature convection that develops. The probability
for this to occur is relatively low, and any chance a vortex would
reach the surface is very low. Overall coverage of lightning
occurrence should be low as well due to the low-topped nature
anticipated with the convection. Much of this forecasted activity is
expected to wane shortly after sunset with the loss of diurnal
instability.

Otherwise, as the shortwave trough shifts east of the area tonight,
an upper ridge will build into the central CONUS on Wednesday. A
notable increase in high temperatures is expected tomorrow afternoon
with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s under mostly clear
skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

For the later periods of the forecast, lovely late summer/early fall
conditions will dominate, though some thunderstorms might put a
damper on the beginning of the weekend. As Thursday dawns, an
amplified pattern will be in place across the nation, with a large
western CONUS trough juxtaposed against building eastern CONUS
ridge. This will leave our section of the country under rather
benign regime for Thursday and Friday. Models advertise 850mb
temperatures in the mid-teens late in the work week, leaving
expectations that highs will range in the 80s. These above
seasonally average temperatures late in the work week will be
occurring ahead of a frontal passage expected to occur Saturday.

Over the weekend the western CONUS trough will be filling and
lifting through the Plains States. The resulting frontal passage is
currently advertised to occur in our section of Kansas and Missouri
during the daylight hours of Saturday. Models are in decent
agreement on the evolution of the trough and timing of the
associated frontal passage, though given the jet streak noted diving
under the trough as it lifts out thoughts are that the eventual
timing will slow, leaving the frontal passage through our forecast
area lingering into the overnight hours of Saturday. Expectations
are that convection along the front will start Friday night across
areas from central Kansas into eastern Nebraska. These storms will
likely spread into eastern Kansas and far western Missouri towards
sunrise Saturday morning. Slow progress of the front might keep
storms percolating across western Missouri through much of the day,
while also slowly spreading east with the front. Have kept fairly
expansive likely POPs in place for Saturday night owing to low
confidence that the front will have completely cleared the forecast
area before nightfall.

Otherwise, beyond Saturday`s potential stormy weather, the remainder
of the weekend and into next work week (Sunday through Tuesday)
looks rather beautiful. Temperatures are currently expected to range
between highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s as a quasi-zonal upper
level pattern moves into the Plains in the wake of the exiting
trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

The primary concern overnight will be the development of mainly
ground fog over most of the region. While MVFR visibilities will be the
rule am expecting pockets of dense fog with visibilities of a 1/4sm
or less to form during the pre-dawn hours, especially in river
valleys and low-lying areas. Local effects due to air temperatures
cooling below the surrounding water temperature at KSTJ also warrant
inclusion of dense fog. All of the fog will burn off quickly by mid-
morning.

Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with pockets of mid clouds across
northern MO overnight but most of the earlier cloud cover has
dissipated and will not return.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

 322 PM MDT WED SEP 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WITH THE RAIN EVENT NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA...SHORT
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE MORE OR LESS CONGEALED AROUND A FAIRLY
GOOD CONSENSUS OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON THE
TIMING...INTENSITY...AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RESULTING FROM
THIS RAIN STORM.

MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...AND LITTLE BIT TONIGHT...THE NARROW LINEAR
BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH OUR CENTRAL ZONE FROM SSW TO NNE HAS
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HAS BEEN
WELL REPRESENTED BY THE MODELS WITH THE GFS AND THE HRRR BEING THE
MOST ACCURATE. EXPECT MOST OF THE REMAINING CWA TO FILL IN WITH AT
LEAST A WETTING RAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A PINCHED OFF LOBE
CENTER FROM THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES RIGHT OVER OUR CWA.
EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE STORM TO BE BETWEEN 0.20
AND 0.60.

WINDS FILTERING IN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
SHOULD BEGIN IN THE 15G25KT RANGE...INCREASE TO NEAR THE 20G30KT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AGAIN INTO THE 15G25KT
RANGE AFTER SUNSET.

BY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL
TEMPORARILY BRING A LULL IN THE RAIN FOR A GOOD PART OF OUR CWA.
THEN...AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER EASTERN MONTANA...A
BAND OF RAIN WILL LINE UP AND GLANCE OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE.
A GENERAL DRY PATTERN WITH A COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVAL TUESDAY LOOKS
GOOD. NO CHANGES. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AND INTO THE HUDSON BAY.
AN EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
RIGHT BETWEEN THE TWO LARGE FEATURES. TO THE WEST... A WEAK RIDGE
RUNS UP THE US WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND ARCTIC COLD AIR CHURNING RIGHT BEHIND IT OVER THE
BEARING SEA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... THE TROUGH ALOFT AND THEN
RIDGE TO THE WEST PASS THROUGH THE AREA. BUT WITH MINIMAL
MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND.

MONDAY TO TUESDAY... THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH WILL PUSH OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND BE AIDED BY A JET ROUNDING ITS PERIPHERY
WHICH SHOULD BRING A CLIPPER STYLE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA OVER A 12 HOUR PERIOD IN THIS TIME FRAME. MODELS
ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE ON TIMING BECAUSE IT RELIES ON THE
SMALL PERTURBATION OF A JET/WAVE OVER THE BEARING SEA STARTING ALL
THE WAY BACK AT FRIDAY NIGHT AND AMPLIFYING AS IT ROUNDS THE BC TROUGH.
THE 00Z RUN OF GFS AND EC APPEAR TO LINE UP AROUND LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT... THIS COULD QUICKLY CHANGE. POPS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. BUT... DUE TO THE CLIPPER NATURE WOULD BE VERY SHORT WITH
LIGHT QPF.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
HERE. A ZONAL TO WEAK TROUGH PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AND THIS
TYPICALLY MEANS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS. THEREFORE...
TRENDED TEMPS DOWN DURING THIS TIME. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR.

RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
AT KGGW AND WEST ARE EXPECTED TO SET IN THIS EVENING AT
KOLF...POSSIBLY GETTING INTO KSDY AND KGDV LATER TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT LATE THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 15 KTS.
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO
ABOUT 30 KTS. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 937 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

.UPDATE...

DID A MINOR UPDATE TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE NOSE
OF A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. 00Z NAM12...LATEST RUNS OF HRRR AND
HIGH RESOLUTION RAP SHOW THIS.

MILLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013/

AVIATION...

00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO INCREASE...SO MENTIONED SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATER TONIGHT THAT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KOFK AFTER 06Z
WITH ACCOMPANYING MVFR VSBY...BUT CHANCES SEEMED TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MOST OR ALL
OF THE PERIOD. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT KOFK FRIDAY
EVENING AND LATER FRIDAY FOR KOMA AND KLNK.

MILLER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013/

DISCUSSION...

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR
KHON TO KLBF. THE FRONT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SRN CANADA PER AFTN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FRONT IS BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL
FLOW AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS GENERALLY
TO THE WEST OF OUR FA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FM KS INTO NEB TONIGHT WITH THE TERMINUS
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SD/IA/MN. ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS INDICATES DECENT LIFT ON THE 305 AND 310 K LAYERS...BUT
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 75 MB
INDICATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY IN THIS REGION OF LIFT.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP INDICATE STRONG MUCIN OF
75 TO 100 J/KG FOR ELEVATED PARCELS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THUS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LIMITED IF AT
ALL IN OUR CWA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE
ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WARM H85 TEMPERATURES OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS. THUS WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL AREA IN KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES CLOSE TO THE SD BORDER. THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO RETROGRADE A BIT ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE BASE OVER THE TROUGH THIS AFTN OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA WITH ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM
DAY. WE HAVE INCREASED GOING HIGHS A TOUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG MIXING AND WARM H85 TEMPERATURES.

THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM WILL START TO EJECT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO ACCELERATE THROUGH NEB AS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. MODELS
INDICATE STRONG Q-G FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A
WELL-DEFINED DIV-Q MAXIMUM MOVING FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE DAKOTAS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS INDICATED ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WITH THE STRONG CAPPING AND VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS.
RAINFALL FOR OUR CWA APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED IN TWO AREAS...ONE
ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NE NEB...AND SECOND OVER
SE NEB TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL JET MAX. THE
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN POPS REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM WAS TO
SLOW THE TIMING ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALSO TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR BETWEEN THESE TWO FAVORED AREAS. THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL BE RAPIDLY EXITING THE AREAS ON SAT
MORNING. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET AND SEASONABLE.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER SYSTEM
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THERE REMAINS A GOOD
DEAL OF TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED FRONT.
CURRENTLY WE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER EC BUT DID INCLUDE SOME
SHOWERS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT IT COULD END UP BEING JUST
PAST THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TRENDED WARMER AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SOME 80S POSSIBLE ON
MON-WED.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1245 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

MAIN FORECAST CHANGE/ADDITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IS A GENERIC MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH STILL NOT OVERLY CONCERNED
ABOUT WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY ISSUES...ITS HARD TO IGNORE THAT THE
LEAST HRRR IS INSISTING THAT POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG COULD BLOSSOM
MAINLY IN MAINLY EAST/NORTHEAST AREAS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. PROS
FOR FOG FORMATION OBVIOUSLY INCLUDE FAIRLY LOW SURFACE
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR CALM BREEZES...BUT ON
THE FLIP SIDE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PER THE 00Z NAM WOULD
SEEM TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL FOG AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED...FELT IT BEST TO GET SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
WORDING IN THE FORECAST JUST IN CASE...AND WILL EVALUATE AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON WHETHER THIS MIGHT NEED BEEFED UP...OR CONVERSELY
REMOVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WITH THE
LOCAL AREA LYING BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET...SKIES TO CLEAR...AND FOR TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

OTHERWISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
PATCHY FOG FORMATION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND EXPECTED
TO FALL SOME TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION...DECIDED NOT TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE LATEST FORECAST...WITH THINKING BEING IF
ANY PATCHY FOG IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IT WILL BE VERY THIN AND BURN
OFF JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE A NICE...ALBEIT BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH LATE
WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHOWING
A GRADUALLY MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS.  UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE OVER THE PAC NW...WHICH GRADUALLY SLIDES E/SE THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.  THURSDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE DRY...AND
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THANKS TO THE TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  HIGHS
LOOKING TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 80S IN THE NW TO NEAR 90 IN THE
SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH INTO
THE DESERT SW...WHILE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST REGION
NORTH TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY AREA.  THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...AND
MAY START TO AFFECT THE CWA ALREADY BY 12Z FRIDAY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY BECAUSE OF
THE CONSISTENT ACTIVITY DEVELOPED BY THE GFS OVERNIGHT /OTHER MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF OR ARE COMPLETELY DRY PRE-12Z/.  WHILE THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ARND
100KT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSING INTO THE
PLAINS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A TOUCH STRONGER WITH THE FEATURE
AND A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.  DID KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT KEPT THEM CONFINED TO THE 06-12Z TIMEFRAME.

INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN CHANGE
WITH THE MODELS WAS TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND IN THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIP/SFC FRONT.  AT 12Z FRIDAY THERE ARE
STILL EVEN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...SOME SAY THE FRONT IS
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA...OTHERS /ESP THE
ECMWF/ SHOW THE FRONT STILL OVER THE SANDHILLS.  EVEN THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...THE FRONT DOESNT LOOK TO HAVE MADE A LOT OF EASTWARD
PROGRESS...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL CANADA...LEAVING A OPEN WAVE BEHIND OVER THE ROCKIES.  BY
FRIDAY EVENING...THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STILL BE
AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA...AND THATS WHERE THE
HIGHER POPS REMAIN.  WITH THE SLOWER TREND TO THE FRONT...DID BUMP
UP HIGHS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SERN HALF AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE HIGHER NW...WITH THE FORECAST RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW
TO MID 80S SE.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO COME
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ONTO THE
PLAINS...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. DID
INCREASE POPS A TOUCH...WITH LIKELIES EVERYWHERE.  BY 12Z SATURDAY
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT ISNT BAD...MAINLY BECAUSE THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER PUSH AND CATCHES UP TO THE GFS...BUT BOTH SHOW THE FRONT
OVER FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MOVING OFF TO ERN NEB/KS BY
MIDDAY.  CONTINUED THE LINGERING POPS POST-12Z...BUT AT THIS POINT
MODELS SHOW THIS WOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS AND
OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE WORKING IN...A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BRINGING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SHOWERS SATURDAY...THERE ISNT NOTABLE INSTABILITY AT ANY POINT...BUT
MODELS AGREE WITH WHATEVER THERE IS BEING EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z
SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS DRY AS MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ZONAL
PATTERN...BUT NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
HIGHS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MENTIONED A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FOG AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT
THE FOG TO BE AT THE HIGH END OF MVFR (AROUND 5 MILES) FROM
09-14Z. THE ONLY OTHER THING WORTH MENTIONING IS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
THAT WILL BE REVVING UP AFTER 14Z DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS
OVER 24 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

OVERALL THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTATIONS
REGARDING THE PLATTE RIVER FLOODING/FLOODING POTENTIAL. AS OF 3 PM
CST...WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TWO OFFICIAL FLOOD WARNINGS...ONE
FOR THE RIVER GAGE NEAR COZAD...WHICH COVERS THE PLATTE RIVER
REACH ACROSS DAWSON COUNTY INTO FAR WESTERN BUFFALO...AND A SECOND
FOR THE GAGE NEAR KEARNEY...WHICH COVERS THE REACH OF THE RIVER
ALONG THE BUFFALO/PHELPS/KEARNEY COUNTY LINE...AND THEN ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF HALL COUNTY. THE LATEST MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTER (MBRFC) FORECAST NO LONGER TAKES THE GRAND ISLAND GAGE A
FEW MILES EAST OF TOWN INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT INSTEAD CRESTS THE RIVER VERY CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AS WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE ACTUAL VOLUME OF
WATER APPROACHING THAT AREA IN CASE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.

EVEN SO...PLEASE NOTE ONLY MINOR FLOOD STAGE...AND NOT
MODERATE/MAJOR CATEGORIES...ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...AND THUS THE VAST MAJORITY OF IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE LOWLAND AREAS NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CHANNELS. THESE RIVER FORECASTS ARE UPDATED
REGULARLY PER COORDINATION BETWEEN MBRFC AND THE NWS
HASTINGS...AND MINOR TWEAKS IN CREST HEIGHT AND TIMING REMAIN
LIKELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...EDDY
HYDROLOGY...SAR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 725 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LOW
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
OVERALL SHAPE. HOWEVER...I DID MAKE SMALL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE EVENING. OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN CLINTON...FRANKLIN
AND NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
PROJECTED DUE TO THE OVERCAST. I FELT THAT THE RAP AND HRRR
TEMPERATURES HANDLED THE COOLER READINGS IN THESE AREAS THE BEST
AND SO I`VE BLENDED IN SOME OF THESE DATA TO THE GOING FORECAST.
RECENT SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE RH FIELDS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS POORLY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKING TO SHIFT
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT...IT MAY ACT TO LOCK IN THE
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE OVERCAST ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. FOR NOW I`LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE MAKING ANY POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT FOLLOWS...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
MOVE FURTHER EAST TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN ADVERTISED...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...EXCEPT A BIT WARMER SOUTH WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE
SUNSHINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR TONIGHT AS WELL...AS
CLOUDS STILL FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHEREAS
MODELS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MORE CLOUDS NORTH DUE ONE
LAST SURGE OF MOISTURE AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW COMBINED WITH WEAK
VORT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND BIAS CORRECTED TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FOR LOWS...WITH
READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT 30S IN ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND
50 VICINITY LAKE CHAMPLAIN. AREAS THAT SEE SOME CLEAR PERIODS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE SOME FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A MASSIVE RIDGE ALOFT CRESTS OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A RATHER LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS.
MIN TEMPS FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT THURSDAY...PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MAINLY
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AS WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (POSSIBLY
SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE) DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST. THAT BEING SAID MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES STILL EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WASH OUT
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MOISTURE/ENERGY
BEING TRANSFERRED OFFSHORE AS OCEAN LOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS.

SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN OVERALL AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRY TO WORK TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BUT BUILDING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ACT TO KEEP MOST OF
THE ENERGY/MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. STILL WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA...MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SO RELATIVELY
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR AND RELATIVELY MILD EACH DAY...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 68-73F EACH DAY SUNDAY-THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND
MOST OF VERMONT WILL LEAD TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
CONDITIONS BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LOOKING FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK
AND KMPV WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z. ELSEWHERE
THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-14Z EACH DAY ESPECIALLY SLK MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...EVENSON/MUCCILLI








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 714 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LOW
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
OVERALL SHAPE. HOWEVER...I DID MAKE SMALL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE EVENING. OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN CLINTON...FRANKLIN
AND NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
PROJECTED DUE TO THE OVERCAST. I FELT THAT THE RAP AND HRRR
TEMPERATURES HANDLED THE COOLER READINGS IN THESE AREAS THE BEST
AND SO I`VE BLENDED IN SOME OF THESE DATA TO THE GOING FORECAST.
RECENT SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE RH FIELDS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS POORLY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKING TO SHIFT
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT...IT MAY ACT TO LOCK IN THE
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE OVERCAST ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. FOR NOW I`LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE MAKING ANY POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT FOLLOWS...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
MOVE FURTHER EAST TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN ADVERTISED...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...EXCEPT A BIT WARMER SOUTH WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE
SUNSHINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR TONIGHT AS WELL...AS
CLOUDS STILL FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHEREAS
MODELS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MORE CLOUDS NORTH DUE ONE
LAST SURGE OF MOISTURE AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW COMBINED WITH WEAK
VORT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND BIAS CORRECTED TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FOR LOWS...WITH
READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT 30S IN ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND
50 VICINITY LAKE CHAMPLAIN. AREAS THAT SEE SOME CLEAR PERIODS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE SOME FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A MASSIVE RIDGE ALOFT CRESTS OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A RATHER LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS.
MIN TEMPS FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT THURSDAY...PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MAINLY
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AS WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (POSSIBLY
SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE) DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST. THAT BEING SAID MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES STILL EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WASH OUT
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MOISTURE/ENERGY
BEING TRANSFERRED OFFSHORE AS OCEAN LOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS.

SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN OVERALL AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRY TO WORK TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BUT BUILDING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ACT TO KEEP MOST OF
THE ENERGY/MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. STILL WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA...MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SO RELATIVELY
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR AND RELATIVELY MILD EACH DAY...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 68-73F EACH DAY SUNDAY-THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR AND ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PERSISTENT
STRATOCUMULUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW...ESPECIALLY
BTV/MPV. CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
DEGREE OF CLEARING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THUS THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z. RUT WILL HAVE LOWEST CHANCE
OF ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. FOG POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK/MSS
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT AT MPV. BTV MAY SEE FOG IN
VICINITY...WITH FOG IN THE WINOOSKI VALLEY AND LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND PUSHING IT CLOSE TO RUNWAY...HOWEVER LEFT OUT FOR NOW. PBG
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT-BKN008 WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS PUSHING THEM OVER PBG. ANY FOG/LOW CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
AFTER 12-13Z WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS 4-7K FEET CONTINUING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-14Z
EACH DAY ESPECIALLY SLK MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 741 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH INTO VERMONT AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...BRINGING PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT
FCST...REFLECTING SATELLITE TRENDS...AS STRATUS DECK HAS
RETREATED FROM ALL BUT THE NEK. IR SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS AREA OF
MOISTURE SURGING MORE EWD UPSTREAM. RUC SHOWS CLOUDS FROM THIS
AREA MOVING INTO NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTN...MORE SO THAN OTHER
MODELS...BUT SIMILAR IN TREND. HAVE INCREASED CLDS OVER NEK THIS
AFTN AND INTO THE ADKS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
COOLER TEMPS THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISC...AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
GRADUALLY PICKS UP A LITTLE MOMENTUM EWD LATE IN THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW...SOME LOW CLOUDS
STILL EXPECTED...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHRINKING AREA OF
MOISTURE AS SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SPREADS
EAST. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY THRU
MIDDAY...WITH EXCEPTION OF NEK. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SURGE OF
LLVL/SHALLOW MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTN INTO OVERNIGHT. AREAS
EXPECTING TO STAY MORE ON THE SUNNY SIDE...SUCH AS SLV AND CT
VALLEY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 70F IN THE SLV TO M/U 60S IN THE
CPV AND 50S- L60S IN NEK/MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 443 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED AS BLOCK FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WITH THE LOW TO OUR E CONTINUING TO FILTER IN LLVL
MOISTURE...CLOUDS WILL BE A TRICKY FCST...AS ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE TEMP INVERSION THRU
THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE FINALLY BREAK FREE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS MORE
EASTERLY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER IN AREAS THAT SEE THE MOST
SUN DURING THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SLV ON THURSDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
AROUND 70F...U60S IN CPV AND L-M60S ELSEWHERE...WITH THE MTNS IN
THE 50S. TEMPS ALOFT TRENDING WARMER BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...THEREFORE THURS NT TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF
TONIGHT...AS WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE OFFSET BY DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPS NEARING 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO DECENT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR
FINE LEAF PEEPING WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MASSIVE RIDGE ALONG AND HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, COOL MORNINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S AND MILD AFTERNOONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
THESE ARE LARGER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGES AND HAVE GONE
3-5 DEGREES LOWER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINS ESPECIALLY ON SAT AND A
COUPLE DEGREES ON SUNDAY BUT HIGH TEMPS SEEM ABOUT RIGHT.

LOTS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AS UPPER TROF
DRIVES SOUTH THEN OFF SHORE AND CUTS OFF AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH
LATE THIS WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK THREATENING NEW ENGLAND WITH
SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS HINTS THIS COULD TRANSITION FROM A
COLD CORE TO WARM CORE SYSTEM, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. AT
THIS POINT THE CONSENSUS KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFF SHORE AND AWAY
FROM BTV BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS.

THE OTHER WEATHER FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS A PACIFIC FRONT
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL UNDERGO
FRONTOLYSIS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN RIDGE. SO LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS IT DECAYS AND DRIES UP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE MILD BUT WITH LESS
SUNSHINE IT WONT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND NOT QUITE AS COOL IN THE MORNINGS. EXPECTING LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

IF NEITHER OF THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS GIVE US MEASURABLE RAIN, WE
MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
MILD DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT LCL IFR/LIFR IN BR/FG AT
KMSS AND KSLK THROUGH 13Z AND AGAIN 07-13Z TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE EDGING INTO NY AND NRLY FLOW OVER VT THIS MORNING
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

EXPECT FOG AT KMSS/KSLK TO BURN OFF BY 13Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CU/SC FORMING MAINLY EAST OF BTV AND
ESPECIALLY MPV WHERE EXPECTING SCT-BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NY AND NORTHERLY 5 TO 10 KT
KPBG-KBTV-KMPV. COULD EVEN BE A FEW GUSTS INTO THE TEENS AT KMPV
WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.

CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT, SO LOOKING FOR LCL VLIFR AT
KMPV KSLK FROM 07-13Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-14Z EACH DAY ESP KSLK KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 715 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH INTO VERMONT AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...BRINGING PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 715 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT
FCST...REFLECTING SATELLITE TRENDS...AS STRATUS DECK HAS
RETREATED FROM ALL BUT THE NEK. IR SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS AREA OF
MOISTURE SURGING MORE EWD UPSTREAM. RUC SHOWS CLOUDS FROM THIS
AREA MOVING INTO NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTN...MORE SO THAN OTHER
MODELS...BUT SIMILAR IN TREND. HAVE INCREASED CLDS OVER NEK THIS
AFTN AND INTO THE ADKS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
COOLER TEMPS THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISC...AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
GRADUALLY PICKS UP A LITTLE MOMENTUM EWD LATE IN THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW...SOME LOW CLOUDS
STILL EXPECTED...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHRINKING AREA OF
MOISTURE AS SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SPREADS
EAST. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY THRU
MIDDAY...WITH EXCEPTION OF NEK. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SURGE OF
LLVL/SHALLOW MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTN INTO OVERNIGHT. AREAS
EXPECTING TO STAY MORE ON THE SUNNY SIDE...SUCH AS SLV AND CT
VALLEY WILL SEE MAX TEMPS NEAR 70F IN THE SLV TO M/U 60S IN THE
CPV AND 50S- L60S IN NEK/MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 443 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED AS BLOCK FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WITH THE LOW TO OUR E CONTINUING TO FILTER IN LLVL
MOISTURE...CLOUDS WILL BE A TRICKY FCST...AS ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE TEMP INVERSION THRU
THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE FINALLY BREAK FREE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS MORE
EASTERLY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER IN AREAS THAT SEE THE MOST
SUN DURING THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SLV ON THURSDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
AROUND 70F...U60S IN CPV AND L-M60S ELSEWHERE...WITH THE MTNS IN
THE 50S. TEMPS ALOFT TRENDING WARMER BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY...THEREFORE THURS NT TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF
TONIGHT...AS WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE OFFSET BY DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPS NEARING 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO DECENT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR
FINE LEAF PEEPING WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MASSIVE RIDGE ALONG AND HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, COOL MORNINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S AND MILD AFTERNOONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
THESE ARE LARGER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGES AND HAVE GONE
3-5 DEGREES LOWER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINS ESPECIALLY ON SAT AND A
COUPLE DEGREES ON SUNDAY BUT HIGH TEMPS SEEM ABOUT RIGHT.

LOTS OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AS UPPER TROF
DRIVES SOUTH THEN OFF SHORE AND CUTS OFF AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH
LATE THIS WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK THREATENING NEW ENGLAND WITH
SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS HINTS THIS COULD TRANSITION FROM A
COLD CORE TO WARM CORE SYSTEM, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. AT
THIS POINT THE CONSENSUS KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFF SHORE AND AWAY
FROM BTV BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS.

THE OTHER WEATHER FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING IS A PACIFIC FRONT
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL UNDERGO
FRONTOLYSIS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN RIDGE. SO LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS IT DECAYS AND DRIES UP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES WITH LOW POPS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE MILD BUT WITH LESS
SUNSHINE IT WONT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE WEEKEND IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND NOT QUITE AS COOL IN THE MORNINGS. EXPECTING LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

IF NEITHER OF THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS GIVE US MEASURABLE RAIN, WE
MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
MILD DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT LCL IFR/LIFR IN BR/FG AT
KMSS AND KSLK THROUGH 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE EDGING INTO NY AND NRLY FLOW OVER VT THIS MORNING
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

EXPECT FOG AT KMSS/KSLK TO BURN OFF BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CU/SC FORMING MAINLY EAST OF BTV AND
ESPECIALLY MPV WHERE EXPECTING AT LEAST BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NY AND NORTHERLY 5 TO 10 KT
KPBG-KBTV-KMPV. COULD EVEN BE A FEW GUSTS INTO THE TEENS AT KMPV
WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-14Z EACH DAY ESP KSLK KMPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 315 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY... THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TODAY: DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WRN CWA TOWARD NIGHTFALL. A WEAKENING
OCCLUSION CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO A STRENGTHENING LOW JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST.
ONE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND ATTENDING BATCH OF CIRRUS HAS DEPARTED
TO OUR NE... AND WE`RE NOW IN A RELATIVELY CLEAR AREA AHEAD OF MORE
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD NC FROM THE
WEST... ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DPVA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL
VORTEX NOW OVER SRN IL. STRONGER POCKETS OF VORTICITY ARE DUE TO
SWEEP EAST INTO THE AREA AS THE VORTEX CROSSES THE OH VALLEY
APPROACHING VA/NC LATE. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT BASED ABOVE 700
MB WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH THE
PRIMARY MECHANISMS CONSISTING OF DPVA AND STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING JETLET FROM THE NW OVER
SRN IL INTO KY/TN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A THICKENING AND LOWERING OF
MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE WRN CWA... WHILE IN
THE EAST... DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS (EVIDENT AT 925-850
MB) ON THE LIGHT NE FLOW WILL KEEP THE COLUMN RELATIVELY DRY BELOW
700 MB. IN SHORT... EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT ANY LIGHT RAIN IN THE WRN PIEDMONT TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 4 PM WITH THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY DRY
THROUGH THAT TIME... ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECTED TO WARM UP
TO 1380-1385 M LATER TODAY... AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM MID MORNING (AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS BURNS OFF)
THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... HAVE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS TO 73-78.

FOR TONIGHT: THE NAM/GFS ARE MUCH WETTER WITH THEIR MOST RECENT
COUPLE OF RUNS THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT... SHOWING SOME MOISTENING
TAKING PLACE BELOW 700 MB... ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP
DESPITE INDICATIONS THAT MOST LIFT WILL REMAIN ROOTED AT AND ABOVE
700 MB WITH NO LOWER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS EVIDENT. BOTH UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH THE DIVING JETLET AND MID LEVEL DPVA MAXIMIZE
OVERNIGHT... AS DOES PRECIP WATER... WHOSE VALUES TOP OUT NEAR 1.6
INCHES OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT BEFORE SLIPPING BACK TOWARD 1.25 INCHES
IN THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE. THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER THE REGION
TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY THU MORNING... BUT THE PATH
OF THE 850 MB LOW IS FARTHER SOUTH... FROM TN SE ACROSS SC...
KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING FROM A DRIER NE OR NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. SO... WHATEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE WILL
LIKELY COME FROM WHAT FALLS IN FROM ABOVE... RATHER THAN FROM ANY
HORIZONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION... AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP QPF
ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THIS EVENT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NC (WITH THE
TRIAD REGION SEEING HIGHER TOTALS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE CONTRIBUTION TO
LIFT AND THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB LOW TRACK). WILL SPREAD
GOOD CHANCE POPS INTO THE WRN CWA VERY EARLY EVENING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE (CENTRAL) TO NO POPS (FAR EAST) IN THE EVENING... THEN EXPECT
CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM
A QUARTER TO THIRD INCH IN THE TRIAD AND FAR SW CWA TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS IN THE NE CWA. WILL STICK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60... CLOSE TO STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE 850 MB LOW MOVES FROM E TN TO THE SE ALONG THE 850 MB FRONTAL
ZONE BEFORE WEAKENING THEN DISSIPATING OVER UPSTATE SC... IN FAVOR
OF THE STRENGTHENING 850 MB LOW OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING
RESUMPTION OF NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL DRIER AIR INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA... AND WILL END POPS HERE IN THE MORNING. BUT
THE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MOIST
UPGLIDE IN OUR FAR WRN CWA IN THE MORNING... SO WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN HERE EARLY. AND THE MID LEVEL DPVA SHOULD STILL
BE AFFECTING THE EASTERN/SRN CWA EARLY IN THE DAY UNTIL IT MOVES TO
OUR EAST... SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
AS WELL. CONSIDERABLE DRYING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN BY
15Z-18Z THURSDAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING VORTEX AND
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BELOW 700 MB. THIS FLOW MAY STILL DRAW SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY... SO WE MAY NOT SEE SKIES BECOME TOTALLY CLEAR... ESPECIALLY IN
THE SE CWA... BUT WE`LL AT LEAST SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF
THE CWA AND AN END TO RAIN CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW MID CLOUDS AS A WEAK PERTURBATION ROTATES DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING VORTEX. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
50S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY.

AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD TYPICAL OF FALL EXPECTED...

AN ALREADY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC CLOSES OFF AND THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHARPENS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A COOL NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THICKNESSES PROGGED TO BE 15-20M
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  REGARDING THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE...THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE DEEPER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH ITS STRENGTH APPEARS TO BE IN PART A RESULT OF THE
INTERJECTION OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS A DETAIL THAT
IS HARD TO PUT FAITH IN THIS FAR OUT.  THE STRONGER SCENARIO WOULD
BRING THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FURTHER WEST AND
CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...LEADING TO BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTHEAST.  WPC PREFERS THE ECMWF
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT ALSO QUESTIONS THE STRENGTH.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ALL OF THE CWA DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES BY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND IT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH PRECIP EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM WEDNESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 12Z... AS
THE COMBINATION OF JUST A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS... LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS... AND INCREASING SURFACE RH TO PROMOTE FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES... PEAKING AT
08Z-12Z... THEN MIXING OUT WITH HEATING TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLOUDS BASED AROUND
5000 FT AGL AND ANOTHER DECK AROUND 8000-12000 FT AGL SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST. AFTER 00Z... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER
THROUGH 06Z... STAYING VFR AT RDU/RWI/FAY BUT LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR
AT INT/GSO AFTER 03Z WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE NE UNDER 8 KTS THROUGH 06Z EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT GSO/INT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT RDU/RWI/FAY
AFTER 06Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY AS NARROW HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH...
ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 245 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY... THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TODAY: DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WRN CWA TOWARD NIGHTFALL. A WEAKENING
OCCLUSION CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO A STRENGTHENING LOW JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST.
ONE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND ATTENDING BATCH OF CIRRUS HAS DEPARTED
TO OUR NE... AND WE`RE NOW IN A RELATIVELY CLEAR AREA AHEAD OF MORE
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD NC FROM THE
WEST... ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DPVA AHEAD OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL
VORTEX NOW OVER SRN IL. STRONGER POCKETS OF VORTICITY ARE DUE TO
SWEEP EAST INTO THE AREA AS THE VORTEX CROSSES THE OH VALLEY
APPROACHING VA/NC LATE. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT BASED ABOVE 700
MB WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH THE
PRIMARY MECHANISMS CONSISTING OF DPVA AND STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING JETLET FROM THE NW OVER
SRN IL INTO KY/TN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A THICKENING AND LOWERING OF
MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE WRN CWA... WHILE IN
THE EAST... DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS (EVIDENT AT 925-850
MB) ON THE LIGHT NE FLOW WILL KEEP THE COLUMN RELATIVELY DRY BELOW
700 MB. IN SHORT... EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT ANY LIGHT RAIN IN THE WRN PIEDMONT TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 4 PM WITH THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY DRY
THROUGH THAT TIME... ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECTED TO WARM UP
TO 1380-1385 M LATER TODAY... AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM MID MORNING (AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS BURNS OFF)
THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... HAVE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS TO 73-78.

FOR TONIGHT: THE NAM/GFS ARE MUCH WETTER WITH THEIR MOST RECENT
COUPLE OF RUNS THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT... SHOWING SOME MOISTENING
TAKING PLACE BELOW 700 MB... ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP
DESPITE INDICATIONS THAT MOST LIFT WILL REMAIN ROOTED AT AND ABOVE
700 MB WITH NO LOWER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS EVIDENT. BOTH UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH THE DIVING JETLET AND MID LEVEL DPVA MAXIMIZE
OVERNIGHT... AS DOES PRECIP WATER... WHOSE VALUES TOP OUT NEAR 1.6
INCHES OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT BEFORE SLIPPING BACK TOWARD 1.25 INCHES
IN THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE. THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER THE REGION
TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY THU MORNING... BUT THE PATH
OF THE 850 MB LOW IS FARTHER SOUTH... FROM TN SE ACROSS SC...
KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING FROM A DRIER NE OR NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. SO... WHATEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE WILL
LIKELY COME FROM WHAT FALLS IN FROM ABOVE... RATHER THAN FROM ANY
HORIZONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION... AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP QPF
ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THIS EVENT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NC (WITH THE
TRIAD REGION SEEING HIGHER TOTALS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE CONTRIBUTION TO
LIFT AND THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB LOW TRACK). WILL SPREAD
GOOD CHANCE POPS INTO THE WRN CWA VERY EARLY EVENING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE (CENTRAL) TO NO POPS (FAR EAST) IN THE EVENING... THEN EXPECT
CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM
A QUARTER TO THIRD INCH IN THE TRIAD AND FAR SW CWA TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS IN THE NE CWA. WILL STICK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60... CLOSE TO STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER TROUGH IS
STILL SLATED TO REACH OUR REGION THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SW-NE ORIENTED
TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE NW IN THE MORNING... SLIDING OFF TO THE SE
BY THURSDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD/EXPAND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM NEW ENGLAND.
AFTER A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND 12Z OR SO THURSDAY... MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY DECREASE WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NW AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE 75-80 RANGE. LOWS GENERALLY 50-55 WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY.

AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD TYPICAL OF FALL EXPECTED...

AN ALREADY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC CLOSES OFF AND THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHARPENS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A COOL NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THICKNESSES PROGGED TO BE 15-20M
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  REGARDING THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE...THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE DEEPER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH ITS STRENGTH APPEARS TO BE IN PART A RESULT OF THE
INTERJECTION OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS A DETAIL THAT
IS HARD TO PUT FAITH IN THIS FAR OUT.  THE STRONGER SCENARIO WOULD
BRING THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FURTHER WEST AND
CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...LEADING TO BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTHEAST.  WPC PREFERS THE ECMWF
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT ALSO QUESTIONS THE STRENGTH.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ALL OF THE CWA DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES BY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND IT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH PRECIP EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM WEDNESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 12Z... AS
THE COMBINATION OF JUST A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS... LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS... AND INCREASING SURFACE RH TO PROMOTE FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES... PEAKING AT
08Z-12Z... THEN MIXING OUT WITH HEATING TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLOUDS BASED AROUND
5000 FT AGL AND ANOTHER DECK AROUND 8000-12000 FT AGL SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST. AFTER 00Z... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER
THROUGH 06Z... STAYING VFR AT RDU/RWI/FAY BUT LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR
AT INT/GSO AFTER 03Z WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE NE UNDER 8 KTS THROUGH 06Z EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT GSO/INT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT RDU/RWI/FAY
AFTER 06Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY AS NARROW HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH...
ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 230 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY... THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM TUESDAY...

COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PRESIDES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH RIDGING ALOFT.
INFRARED SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
LOUISIANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT SET UP ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CLOSER TO HOME...THE EDGES OF THE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES HAS REACHED THE CWA AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIN AT FIRST BUT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE DENSE WITH
TIME. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD STILL HAVE THE WARMEST
LOWS IN THE SOUTHWEST (MID TO UPPER 50S)...CLOUDS ARE MOVING FAST
ENOUGH THAT THE UPPER 40S FORECAST IN THE EAST MAY END UP BEING
CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ILLUSTRATE
THIS. OTHERWISE THE COOL DRY FORECAST REMAINS INTACT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WED AND WED NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO
~1.25". ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FORM OF
DPVA AS THE WAVE TRACKS INTO THE REGION...LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL
LARGELY BE ABSENT...WITH WARM ADVECTION CONFINED TO THE DEEP SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THIS REASON THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT IN THE PRESENCE OF
REASONABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DPVA SHOULD STILL SUPPORT A LOW
TO MODERATE CHANCE (20-40%) OF SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT...
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...IN LINE WITH
THE 12Z GFS/NAM WHICH BOTH SHOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THOSE
REGIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON WED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN TODAY GIVEN A VERY
SIMILAR AIRMASS...MORE LIKELY AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN /EVAP
COOLING/. WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM 70-75F...COOLEST WEST.
LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY.

AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD TYPICAL OF FALL EXPECTED...

AN ALREADY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC CLOSES OFF AND THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHARPENS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A COOL NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THICKNESSES PROGGED TO BE 15-20M
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  REGARDING THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE...THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE DEEPER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH ITS STRENGTH APPEARS TO BE IN PART A RESULT OF THE
INTERJECTION OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS A DETAIL THAT
IS HARD TO PUT FAITH IN THIS FAR OUT.  THE STRONGER SCENARIO WOULD
BRING THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FURTHER WEST AND
CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...LEADING TO BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO EASTERN NC FROM THE NORTHEAST.  WPC PREFERS THE ECMWF
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT ALSO QUESTIONS THE STRENGTH.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ALL OF THE CWA DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES BY.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND IT APPEARS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH PRECIP EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM WEDNESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 12Z... AS
THE COMBINATION OF JUST A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS... LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS... AND INCREASING SURFACE RH TO PROMOTE FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES... PEAKING AT
08Z-12Z... THEN MIXING OUT WITH HEATING TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLOUDS BASED AROUND
5000 FT AGL AND ANOTHER DECK AROUND 8000-12000 FT AGL SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST. AFTER 00Z... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER
THROUGH 06Z... STAYING VFR AT RDU/RWI/FAY BUT LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR
AT INT/GSO AFTER 03Z WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE NE UNDER 8 KTS THROUGH 06Z EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT GSO/INT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT RDU/RWI/FAY
AFTER 06Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY AS NARROW HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH...
ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 1258 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY... THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM TUESDAY...

COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PRESIDES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH RIDGING ALOFT.
INFRARED SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
LOUISIANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT SET UP ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CLOSER TO HOME...THE EDGES OF THE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES HAS REACHED THE CWA AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIN AT FIRST BUT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE DENSE WITH
TIME. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD STILL HAVE THE WARMEST
LOWS IN THE SOUTHWEST (MID TO UPPER 50S)...CLOUDS ARE MOVING FAST
ENOUGH THAT THE UPPER 40S FORECAST IN THE EAST MAY END UP BEING
CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ILLUSTRATE
THIS. OTHERWISE THE COOL DRY FORECAST REMAINS INTACT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WED AND WED NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO
~1.25". ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FORM OF
DPVA AS THE WAVE TRACKS INTO THE REGION...LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL
LARGELY BE ABSENT...WITH WARM ADVECTION CONFINED TO THE DEEP SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THIS REASON THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT IN THE PRESENCE OF
REASONABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DPVA SHOULD STILL SUPPORT A LOW
TO MODERATE CHANCE (20-40%) OF SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT...
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...IN LINE WITH
THE 12Z GFS/NAM WHICH BOTH SHOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THOSE
REGIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON WED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN TODAY GIVEN A VERY
SIMILAR AIRMASS...MORE LIKELY AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN /EVAP
COOLING/. WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM 70-75F...COOLEST WEST.
LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...

AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD TYPICAL OF FALL EXPECTED...

SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER TROUGH IS
STILL SLATED TO REACH OUR REGION THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SW-NE ORIENTED
TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE NW IN THE MORNING... SLIDING OFF TO THE SE
BY THURSDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD/EXPAND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD DEEP INTO NC/SC FRI-SUN.

AFTER A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND 12Z OR SO THURSDAY... MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY DECREASE WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NW AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THEN CLEAR/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 75-80 RANGE... COOLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
FRI/SAT/SUN. LOWS GENERALLY 50-55 WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WPC FAVORS A WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP/TRACK WELL EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. ANY ASSOCIATED ADVERSE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MON-TUE... BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL OFF NEW ENGLAND... AND THE APPROACHING AND
DECAYING NEXT MID/UPPER TROUGH / ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT FROM THE
MIDWEST. WE WILL DEPICT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BY MON-TUE...
BUT KEEP ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LACKING OVER OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW... EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 52-57 RANGE AND HIGHS
72-77.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM WEDNESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 12Z... AS
THE COMBINATION OF JUST A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS... LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS... AND INCREASING SURFACE RH TO PROMOTE FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS
SUPPORT A TREND TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES... PEAKING AT
08Z-12Z... THEN MIXING OUT WITH HEATING TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLOUDS BASED AROUND
5000 FT AGL AND ANOTHER DECK AROUND 8000-12000 FT AGL SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST. AFTER 00Z... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER
THROUGH 06Z... STAYING VFR AT RDU/RWI/FAY BUT LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR
AT INT/GSO AFTER 03Z WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE NE UNDER 8 KTS THROUGH 06Z EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT GSO/INT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT RDU/RWI/FAY
AFTER 06Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY AS NARROW HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH...
ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 335 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL TIGHTEN UP ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. FURTHERMORE...MODEL
MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 200-400 J/KG WHILE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UP TO 50 KNOTS. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY
IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

THE LATEST 4KM WRF-NMM AND 3KM HRRR PROG AN MCS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AROUND 01Z. THIS COMPLEX IS THEN PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE MCS MORPHING INTO AN MCV BY THE END OF
ITS CYCLE...GENERATING MORE OF A WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...IF
UPDRAFTS GET STRONG ENOUGH...LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
AFFECTED ZONES FOR TONIGHT.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE PARENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA THURSDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE CWA (SANS NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA) BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE RAIN AND WIND THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL UP TO ONE INCH IS LIKELY FOR SOME PARTS OF NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35
MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG FORCING AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THANKS TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET...DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND ISALLOBARIC FORCING ALONG THE
INVERTED TROUGH. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD EJECT
OUT OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. IT APPEARS ONE SHOULD
ARRIVE ON OUR DOORSTEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN WAVES WITH
BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MAJOR MODELS AS TO
EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PUSH OUT OF THE REGION. THE 12 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF APPEAR
TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM AND THEREFORE
PRODUCE MORE PRECIP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE 12
UTC GEM/NAM AND 09Z SREF HAVE THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLIER FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAJOR MODELS WITH A SLIGHT FAVOR TOWARD THE EASTWARD (FASTER) MODELS
AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT EASTWARD TREND OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 00Z TONIGHT AND LIFT
NORTH OVER KDIK AROUND 02Z AND INTO KISN AROUND 04Z. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TIMING...KEPT VCTS IN THE RESPECTIVE TAFS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1235 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MOSTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS IN
EASTERN MONTANA MOVING NORTHEAST WITH TIME. THE HRRR AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE GFS AND RAP13 INDICATE A POSSIBLE SHOWER BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO FAR NORTH CENTRAL. VERY CLOSE CALL AT
THIS TIME AND HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IN
AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION THROUGH 12Z. SURFACE MAP SHOWS MAX 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS NEAR TROTTERS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO GLENDIVE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
THIS AREA OF MAX PRESSURE FALLS OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A
SPOTTY AREA FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

LATE EVENING UPDATE MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR HAVE RESULTED
IN A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST. HAVE MODIFIED THE HOURLY TRENDS TO REFLECT AN EARLIER LOW
BEING REACHED IN THE WEST BEFORE THE WINDS KICK IN AND KEEP TEMPS
STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING...AND A LATER MINIMUM ACROSS THE EAST. THE END
RESULT WAS DROPPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 2 TO 4 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.
A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN MONTANA...BUT
WITH THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR ITS DOUBTFUL ANY RAIN WILL REACH THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

A LEADING SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF ITS PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT.
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT GRADIENTS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF PROG SOUTHERLY 850MB
WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY 06Z TONIGHT...THEN TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE AREAS BETWEEN
HIGHWAYS 85 AND 83 BY 12Z TUESDAY. DO NOT THINK MORE THAN HALF OF
THIS MOMENTUM WILL TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE PROGGED MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SIDED WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE PAINTING QPF WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE
GREATEST MUCAPE VALUES (AROUND 300 J/KG) ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM
HETTINGER TO GARRISON TO WESTHOPE. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF
SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING
POPS EAST TO ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY (SAY AROUND 4PM CDT OR
SO). THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE AFTER 7PM
CDT WEDNESDAY. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS RAIN AND WIND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON...SHOULD PUSH INTO WESTERN MONTANA BY
WEDNESDAY.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...QUASI ZONAL FLOW WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL IN TURN PROMOTE SURFACE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE IN WYOMING AND
MONTANA. THIS LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGE
INVERTED TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AS A RESULT OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
PROGGED TO SETUP ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FURTHER PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AIDED BY WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY FURTHER ENHANCE THE MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE DIFFERENCES
FROM MONTANA TO MINNESOTA. THEREFORE WINDY CONDITIONS...35 MPH
GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THURSDAY EVENING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS HAVE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY STRONG SHEAR (50 KNOTS 0-6 KM AND 15
KNOTS 0-1 KM) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CAPE IS FORECAST
TO BE MARGINAL. BUT...NONETHELESS...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST AIR RETURN AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN TO FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS HAVE PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.15 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS PWAT VALUE IS MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
100+ KNOT JET IN A FAVORABLE RAIN PRODUCING POSITION WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THEREFORE...OFF AND ON SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS POSSIBLE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DRY PERIOD IS LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE 12 UTC ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH
PROGGING A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT TO WRAP INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHUT OFF PRECIP AT LEAST UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST AND
PROLONGED PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE THE 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS INTERACTING
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC AND ISALLOBARIC FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

FOR THE WESTERN AERORDEOMS...KISN/KDIK SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NOT UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE CENTRAL
TERMINALS OF KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WILL MAINLY SEE SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AND BECOME BKN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A FAIRLY
HIGH PROBABILITY GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 1157 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will continue to impact the region into Thursday
bringing rain showers with an occasional snow shower. A brief dry
period on Friday will allow for some sun and slightly warmer
temperatures. Another wave of moisture is possible for the upcoming
weekend bringing clouds and more rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
More adjustments to sky and pop grids for today and for early this
evening made with another update as the westward propagation and
intensification of showers ongoing up over the Northern Mountains
and Idaho Panhandle are not turning out to be as robust as
expected per earlier HRRR runs. Thus more of the Basin and the
East Slopes North Cascades and Okanogan Valley hold onto a partly
sunny forecast for longer interval of today. The expectation that
there is going to be some westward propagation of this shower
activity and daytime heating should result in more convective
cumulus cloud development in the areas currently free of clouds
given the conditionally unstable air-mass contained in the general
trof overhead of Washington and Idaho. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: Upper level low in the area has an area of showers wrapped
into it that is expected to enhance with time during the day as well
as show some progress west up over the northern more mountainous
locations of the aviation area. Otherwise recent morning rainfall
and associated abundant leftover moisture has kept low
cloud/stratus/fog of varying intensity and elevation in the region
that should decrease through the day and into tomorrow. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        56  42  62  39  62  45 /  50  30  10  10  10  30
Coeur d`Alene  55  42  60  37  61  43 /  80  30  10  10  10  40
Pullman        57  40  61  36  63  44 /  40  40  10  10  10  30
Lewiston       62  47  66  43  69  47 /  40  40  10  10  10  20
Colville       61  41  66  34  65  43 /  90  30  10  10  20  30
Sandpoint      53  37  60  34  61  41 / 100  30  10  10  10  60
Kellogg        50  39  57  36  58  39 / 100  50  10  10  10  50
Moses Lake     67  44  69  38  68  48 /  10  10  10   0  10  10
Wenatchee      66  45  67  45  67  49 /  10  10   0   0  30  20
Omak           66  42  68  36  66  45 /  10  10  10   0  40  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$








YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

 













AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1044 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST AGAIN...AND IT WILL BE
DENSE IN MANY PLACES. WL POST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE E.
UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE WL BE OUT ASAP. COORD W MKX.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT ARE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MOST OF THE FOG BURNED
OFF BY 16Z...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH
PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES ALL THE WAY TO THE COLD FRONT...FOG AGAIN IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS A LITTLE EASTWARD.  AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
1000-850MB WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.  THOUGH THE BL WILL BE MORE
MIXY...THE NAM IS STILL DEPICTING CALM WINDS OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  SO UNFORTUNATELY...FOG WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...JUST NOT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY.  WILL STILL SHOW AREAS
OF FOG NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOW UP. WILL LEAVE A PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  LOWS WILL CONTINUE THEIR
WARMING TREND...AND WILL GO WITH MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH AND
WEST.

FRIDAY...ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF EARLY...WILL SEE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
AS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WARMER AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S.  SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD...PCPN SAT. TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
BE SEEN WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS STATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WITH PCPN TIED
TO FRONT...GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
WITH JET LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA. MAIN DYNAMICS WITH SHORT WAVE
LIFT NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...HAVE CARRIED HIGHEST POPS SAT AFTN
OVER FAR NORTH. INSTABILITY WEAK AND DIMINISHES FURTHER AS MOVES
INTO WI. HAVE LIMITED THUNDER TO JUST SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA RATHER
QUICKLY. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT SAT.

A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
ISSUES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY LATER IN THE
PERIOD. PCPN CHANCES THROUGH WED LOW...THUS HAVE REMOVED SMALL
POPS KEEPING CHANCE ON THU AS FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ON SAT...WILL GIVE WAY TO
COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

STILL EXPECTING ISSUES WITH FOG. CONDITIONS WL BE POORER IN THE E
AND NOT AS BAD IN THE W. TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WL LEAD
TO MORE WIND TOMORROW...AND SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING TOMORROW
NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL BUILD WAVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ013-021-022-
038>040-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........TE








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 1003 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

.UPDATE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS
LEADING TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...THIS TIME IN THE
EASTERN MKX FORECAST AREA. SHEBOYGAN AND WEST BEND ALREADY DROPPED
DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WIND FARMS
ARE SHOWING UP CLEARLY ON RADAR...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST COLUMBIA
COUNTY...WHICH TELLS US THERE IS A PRETTY STRONG INVERSION SETTING
UP ALREADY.

THE LAKE BREEZE BROUGHT SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HELPING THE FOG TO DEVELOP
JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE. WENT AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
JUST THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE MKX AREA FOR NOW...ALSO IN
COORDINATION WITH THE GRB OFFICE. THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING ALL OF
THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND THE NEXT TIER INLAND TO DEVELOP LOW
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED.

THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF FOG TONIGHT DUE
TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT MIGHT
HELP TO DIFFUSE ANY DENSE FOG BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE EAST AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

DENSE FOG IS MOST LIKELY IN AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY DROPPING DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES AT SBM AND ETB. IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG
EXPAND SOUTHWARD...UES AND ENW WILL LIKELY DROP TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS.
LESS CERTAINTY FOR MKE DUE TO ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAKE MICHIGAN
AND BETTER MIXING. EXPECTING MSN AND WESTWARD TO REMAIN IFR OR
BETTER WITH PATCHY FOG DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WELL EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAIN ISSUE AGAIN WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THIS TIME...THOUGH IT MAY
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM AT TIMES.

THINK THAT PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW SPOTS. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN SOME AREAS...IF CALM
WINDS DO OCCUR FOR MOST OF THIS TIME. THINK THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY DENSE FOG TO THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW SPOTS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WELL INLAND...WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S LAKESIDE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED FROM MN INTO WRN ONTARIO CANADA FOR FRI
NT AND SAT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THAT AREA.
A COLD FRONT WITH WELL ORGANIZED SFC-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI SAT AFT AND EVE WHILE PWS RISE TO 1.7 INCHES.
THE SRN EXTENT OF PVA WILL AID THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION OVER SRN
WI. THUS CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR RAIN WHILE FCST
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE ARE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH RAIN TOTALS...THE AREA OF LIFT
WILL BE BRIEF SO 0.20-0.40 INCHES OF RAIN ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TO QUICKLY FOLLOW SAT NT WITH A SFC
RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON SUN...WITH ACCOMPANIED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A SWLY UPPER FLOW AND SFC FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO WED WHILE STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD INTO THE
ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD MN FOR WED NT INTO THU NT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH BEST PCPN CHANCES
LIKELY REMAINING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SRN WI.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH COULD SEE LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS AT TIMES.
FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES EXCEPT
MILWAUKEE BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS AT TIMES. SCATTERED DIURNAL
CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN SITES.

MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FEET...SUBSIDING SATURDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ051-052-059-060.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 903 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST AGAIN...AND IT WILL BE
DENSE IN MANY PLACES. WL POST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE E.
UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE WL BE OUT ASAP. COORD W MKX.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT ARE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MOST OF THE FOG BURNED
OFF BY 16Z...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH
PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES ALL THE WAY TO THE COLD FRONT...FOG AGAIN IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS A LITTLE EASTWARD.  AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
1000-850MB WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.  THOUGH THE BL WILL BE MORE
MIXY...THE NAM IS STILL DEPICTING CALM WINDS OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  SO UNFORTUNATELY...FOG WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...JUST NOT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY.  WILL STILL SHOW AREAS
OF FOG NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOW UP. WILL LEAVE A PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  LOWS WILL CONTINUE THEIR
WARMING TREND...AND WILL GO WITH MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH AND
WEST.

FRIDAY...ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF EARLY...WILL SEE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
AS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WARMER AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S.  SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD...PCPN SAT. TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
BE SEEN WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS STATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THOUGHTS WITH PCPN TIED
TO FRONT...GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
WITH JET LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA. MAIN DYNAMICS WITH SHORT WAVE
LIFT NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...HAVE CARRIED HIGHEST POPS SAT AFTN
OVER FAR NORTH. INSTABILITY WEAK AND DIMINISHES FURTHER AS MOVES
INTO WI. HAVE LIMITED THUNDER TO JUST SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA RATHER
QUICKLY. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO BETWEEN NOON AND MIDNIGHT SAT.

A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
ISSUES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY LATER IN THE
PERIOD. PCPN CHANCES THROUGH WED LOW...THUS HAVE REMOVED SMALL
POPS KEEPING CHANCE ON THU AS FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ON SAT...WILL GIVE WAY TO
COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WX PATTERN TNGT...BUT STILL EXPECTING ISSUES
WITH FOG. SFC HIGH HAS EDGED A BIT FARTHER E...WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM NOW BEGINNING TO SLOWLY ADVANCE E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THOSE
CHGS WL RESULT IN A LITTLE STRONGER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS THE
AREA TNGT...ESP ACRS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WINDS ATOP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WL ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER. THOSE FACTORS WOULD SEEM
SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT SIG FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...BASED ON WHAT/S
HAPPENED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...DON/T THINK THEY WL BE ABLE TO
HOLD THE FOG OFF...ESP IN THE E. WL HIT FOG MUCH HARDER IN THE ERN
TAF SITES. WL TREND SOMEWHAT MORE PESSIMISTIC ACRS THE W
ALSO...THOUGH CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THE PAST
FEW MORNINGS.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL BUILD WAVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ013-021-022-
038>040-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........TE










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 523 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THEN ONTO QUEBEC.  MOST OF THE FOG BURNED OFF
BETWEEN 15-16Z THIS MORNING...AND THEN TRANSFORMED INTO A BKN CU
FIELD OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  TEMPERATURES ARE
LAGGING BEHIND A LITTLE BIT AND RESIDE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
WITH SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS CHANGING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOG POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC.  THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT...WITH PWATS AROUND 0.40
INCHES...AND A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL
KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
TIGHTER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND BL WINDS ARE MORE
MARGINAL IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.  BUT DO NOT
THINK THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM
FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N-C WISCONSIN.  OVER NORTHEAST
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE CALM FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...AND EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS.  FOG HEADLINES LOOK POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AND WILL GO WITH
AREAS OF FOG/LOCALLY DENSE WORDING.  LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRESENT THROUGH 14-15Z.  THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE THE FOG TURN INTO A
CU FIELD...WHICH WILL BURN OFF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ON PCPN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CHALLENGE LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN WITH TIMING. AS WITH LAST
NIGHT...MODELS TENDING TO SPEED THINGS UP WITH BOTH NCEP MODELS
BRINGING FRONT INTO EASTERN WI LATE SAT AFTERNOON. GEM/ECMWF ARE STILL
SLOWER. STILL EXPECT SOME TIMING GYRATIONS, AS PIECE OF ENERGY
THAT WILL ORCHESTRATE THE LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, JUST ROUNDING THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER PAC
NW. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH MAIN DYNAMICS WITH TROF TO PASS NORTH
AND WEST OF CWA...THOUGH GOOD AVAILABLE MOISTURE /PWS AROUND 1.5/
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT ENOUGH TO BRING/KEEP POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY.

FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SUN ONWARD WITH MILD PACIFIC PATTERN
EXPECTED AS WESTERLIES LIE ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF U.S. EXTENDED
PERIODS DOTTED WITH SMALL POPS DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH FASTER
ZONAL FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 523 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

FOG WL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TNGT. BASIC WX PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NGT...SO WL RELY HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE FOR THE TIMING/EXTENT
OF THE FG IN THE TAFS. ONE SIG DIFF IS GRB/S DWPT IS SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YDA AT THIS TIME...PROBABLY DUE TO LGT NELY
FLOW DOWN THE BAY. THAT MAY ALLOW FOG TO GET GOING HERE A LITTLE
EARLIER.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT TO
BUILD WAVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........TE







FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THEN ONTO QUEBEC.  MOST OF THE FOG BURNED OFF
BETWEEN 15-16Z THIS MORNING...AND THEN TRANSFORMED INTO A BKN CU
FIELD OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  TEMPERATURES ARE
LAGGING BEHIND A LITTLE BIT AND RESIDE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
WITH SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS CHANGING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOG POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC.  THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT...WITH PWATS AROUND 0.40
INCHES...AND A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL
KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
TIGHTER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND BL WINDS ARE MORE
MARGINAL IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.  BUT DO NOT
THINK THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG FROM
FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N-C WISCONSIN.  OVER NORTHEAST
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE CALM FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...AND EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS.  FOG HEADLINES LOOK POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AND WILL GO WITH
AREAS OF FOG/LOCALLY DENSE WORDING.  LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRESENT THROUGH 14-15Z.  THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE THE FOG TURN INTO A
CU FIELD...WHICH WILL BURN OFF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ON PCPN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CHALLENGE LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN WITH TIMING. AS WITH LAST
NIGHT...MODELS TENDING TO SPEED THINGS UP WITH BOTH NCEP MODELS
BRINGING FRONT INTO EASTERN WI LATE SAT AFTERNOON. GEM/ECMWF ARE STILL
SLOWER. STILL EXPECT SOME TIMING GYRATIONS, AS PIECE OF ENERGY
THAT WILL ORCHESTRATE THE LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, JUST ROUNDING THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER PAC
NW. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH MAIN DYNAMICS WITH TROF TO PASS NORTH
AND WEST OF CWA...THOUGH GOOD AVAILABLE MOISTURE /PWS AROUND 1.5/
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT ENOUGH TO BRING/KEEP POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY.

FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SUN ONWARD WITH MILD PACIFIC PATTERN
EXPECTED AS WESTERLIES LIE ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF U.S. EXTENDED
PERIODS DOTTED WITH SMALL POPS DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH FASTER
ZONAL FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING SIMILAR TO THE LAST
24 HOURS.  THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL AGAIN CREATE
HEADACHES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND HAVE TRENDED MORE
PESSIMISTICALLY WITH CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 06Z.  THE FOG LOOKS TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THAN LOCATIONS
FARTHER WEST...DUE TO LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...BUT PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE DENSE FOG.  LIKE THIS
MORNING...THE VSBYS/CIGS WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN 14-16Z THU MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT TO
BUILD WAVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........TE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1115 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE AREA UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT THIS WEEKEND. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVERLAID WITH RAP 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUES TO SHOW DECAYING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS IOWA...WHICH HAS SPREAD MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. A
DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS HOLDING STRONG...HELPING TO KEEP
THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...AS SEEN BY THE 24.12Z MPX/GRB
SOUNDINGS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST AND
OVERALL THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS ARE VERY BAGGY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THROUGH AROUND 400 MB THE WIND FIELD IS
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING...EXPECTING PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND POSSIBLY IN THE MS AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS.
THE MORE FAVORABLE SET UP EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT
COULD NOT RULE PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERALL..THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE EVENT LOOKS TO BE THE LACK OF
SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES AMPLIFIED...PROVIDING A FEW
PLEASANT AND TRANQUIL EARLY AUTUMN DAYS. A WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG AND MOVE EASTWARD WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL EACH DAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY WILL
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

THE 24.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE MORE OR LESS DID NOT CHANGE THE SPEED AND
PROGRESSION OF THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...MAYBE A TOUCH FASTER
COMPARED TO THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS. HOWEVER...THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES. IT APPEARS THAT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE DRY WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
INITIAL PRECIPITATION BAND LOOKS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS...MOVING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE 24.12Z GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
24.12Z GEM...WHILE THE 24.12Z CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SOLUTION. THE
24.12Z ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO TURN THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO PUSH THE WHOLE SYSTEM EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY...IN LINE WITH ITS FASTER
COUNTERPARTS. THIS SUGGESTS GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR A DRY
SUNDAY...SO HAVE REMOVED CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TRANQUIL WEATHER.
INDICATIONS IN THE 24.12Z ECMWF OF AN ACTIVE PACIFIC NORTHWEST JET
SUGGESTS PIECES OF FAST MOVING ENERGY THROUGH THE FLOW...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

FOG DEVELOPED UNDER THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VSBY REDUCTIONS ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN WI. WEST OF THERE...PRESSURE GRADIENT KEPT SFC/NEAR
SFC WINDS STIRRED MORE...PREVENTING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.

TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE MORE LAX FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME HINTS IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT WINDS OFF
THE SFC QUICKLY INCREASE TO 10+ KTS. EXPECT SOME BR TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...FAVORING MVFR 3-5SM. THAT SAID...THERE IS A THREAT FOR
SUB 1SM...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE 03Z T/TD AT KLSE WAS
8 F AND IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION. WINDS AT 4 KTS
ISN/T A CLEAR SIGN ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...BUT IF IT FAVORS YES OR
NO...IT WOULD SAY NO TO DENSE FOG. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SHAKY FOR SUB
1SM FOG AT KLSE...AND WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW.

OUTSIDE THE FOG THREAT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WED EVENING...MODELS POINT TO AN INCREASE IN SOME LOW
LEVEL RH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COULD MANIFEST
INTO A SCT-BKN DECK OF 4-8 KFT CLOUDS FOR KRST...LIKELY STAYING SKC
AT KLSE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....RIECK














AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MUCH OF THE WEATHER OF NOTE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THIS WEEKEND IS
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DIURNAL WARM
ADVECTION MAX HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD RESULTING IN HIGH
BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE MO RIVER.  THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS NOTED
FAIRLY WELL AROUND THE 315K ISENT SURFACE AND IS COINCIDENT WITH
SEVERAL HUNDRED RAP MUCAPES TOWARD 12Z.  VARIOUS HI RES MODELS SHOW
THIS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.  THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WANES LATER
THIS MORNING HOWEVER WITH ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD TEMPS AND WINDS
SO ONLY HAVE SCATTERED MORNING WORDING NW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HANDLED HIGHS WELL YESTERDAY AND SIMILAR MIXING WOULD RESULT IN
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MAXES...WHICH WOULD COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
RECORDS IN SPOTS. MIXING WILL NOT BE DEEP...ONLY UP TO AROUND
1KM...BUT STRONG RETURN FLOW MAY BRING GUSTS INTO THE 20S AND 30S
/KTS/ IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH HIGHEST GUSTS NW. ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL NOT DROP DEWPOINTS TOO MUCH WINDS MAY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY NW HALF...AND THIS MENTION WILL REMAIN IN
THE HWO.

LONG WAVE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AS CURRENT STRONG
SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF ITS BASE FROM UT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO SAT.  AS IS OFTEN TYPICAL WITH FALL
SYSTEMS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH INSTABILITY...MUCAPES ONLY
GET TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.  DEEP AND STRONG THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC FORCING IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE FROPA AND SATURATES
THE SOUNDINGS...REDUCING ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AND ABILITY TO
GENERATE MUCH INSOLATION AND SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A
BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION MARCHING W-E ACROSS IA SAT SO HAVE CONTINUED
CATEGORICAL WORDING. PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY TRANSIENT WITH ONLY A
THREE TO FOUR HOUR WINDOW OF RAIN PER THE NAM AND HI RES MODEL
REFLECTIVITY DEPICTIONS.  SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE
LIMITED CAPE...HOWEVER IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN SOMEHOW BE
REALIZED THE STRONG DEEP SHEAR COULD LEAD TO SUPERCELLS. 0-1KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG TOO...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE HOPE OF
GETTING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN TEMPS SAT DUE TO PRECIP AND FROPA
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON POST-FRONTAL MIXING AND RECOVERY.

QUICKLY DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO FAIR WEATHER SAT NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO MIDWEEK. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE STRONG IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT LEE SIDE TROUGHING
WILL BE RIGHT BACK IN PLACE BY SUN NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY
RECOVER BACK TO READINGS SIMILAR TO EARLIER THIS WEEK. STRONG
WESTERLIES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH KEEPING US DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY THU
AS WRN TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME PERIODS
OF WEAK FORCING...BUT THEY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. HAVE REDUCED
POPS IN THE EXTENDED...ONLY RELUCTANTLY HOLDING ONTO LOW CHANCES THU
DURING SOMEWHAT ENHANCED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FOR TAF PERIOD. ONLY WEATHER
FEATURE WHICH MAY BE OF SLIGHT CONCERN ARE THE STRONG WINDS WHICH
SHOULD LAST FROM AROUND 14Z FRI THROUGH 00Z SAT. WINDS EXPECTED TO
BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 KT. FRIDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNSET.
WILL GRADUALLY SEE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SATURDAY/S FORECAST FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SMALL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 256 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

Ridge axis north/northeast of a strong upper high over the LA coast
will continue to keep subsidence over our area this period. Thus we
can expect temperatures a little warmer each day. Especially as
winds veer around from light easterly today to stronger
southwesterly Saturday, as a cold front starts getting closer to our
region.

Valley fog should become a nuisance around daybreak. Area webcams
are not yet showing any widespread issues in our forecast area at
this time. Latest HRRR continues to insist on our northeast area
getting some denser fog by daybreak. Have areas of fog in that
region in the forecast already but still think portions of south
central KY have a shot based on how high their dewpoints stayed
yesterday afternoon. We`ll be a little warmer and more moist
Saturday morning, so should have similar conditions tomorrow, but
for now will limit to patchy fog.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

The highly amplified upper-level ridge that will stretched from the
Gulf of Mexico northeast across the Ohio Valley Saturday will break
down Saturday night, as a shortwave trough pushes into the western
Great Lakes. This trough will swing through the Great Lakes Sunday,
with an associated surface low dragging a cold front through the
Ohio Valley. Scattered showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder
will move into southern Indiana and central Kentucky through much of
the day Sunday. Should see a slight decrease in areal coverage as
the precip pushes east into east-central Kentucky, as the front will
be moving into drier air and will also become disassociated with the
upper-level forcing Sunday evening. Rain showers will gradually
diminish across central Kentucky Sunday night and our southeast
forecast area through the first half of Monday. If the boundary
becomes far removed from the upper-level forcing than currently
forecast, precip chances might linger across more of the area Monday
as the front slows. Will continue to monitor trends. Otherwise,
rainfall totals of generally a third of an inch along the Ohio River
as well as west of I-65 in central Kentucky are possible, with
lesser amounts further east.

With the frontal boundary losing the upper-level forcing, it will
continue to weaken and wash out from roughly the upper Ohio Valley
southwest into the Tennessee Valley Monday through Tuesday. Aloft,
weak ridging will fill in over our area behind the departed trough,
producing a weak subsidence inversion late Monday through Thursday.
Cannot rule out a very isolated shower or storm, mainly across
south-central Kentucky, but currently believe capped afternoon
cumulus will be more common. So, will keep the forecast dry Monday
night through Thursday.

As for temperatures, highs will generally hold in the lower 70s
Sunday with clouds and precip across the area. Temperatures will
gradually moderate through the week, with highs ranging from the
upper 70s to lower 80s for both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Overnight lows will range from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

High pressure aloft will keep the region quiet weather-wise. A weak
inverted trough may provide focus for a few lower clouds over south
central KY this afternoon. Clear conditions early this morning may
allow for denser fog to form across portions of central KY. TAF
sites had some drier air mix down Thursday afternoon, which may keep
them from going as foggy as KLEX and KBWG went yesterday. Thus have
gone a little more optimistic for those sites, but still have
periods of IFR conditions around daybreak.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RJS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 110 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

Latest HRRR coming in with some fog over my northeast sections.
Satellite fog product shows the East KY valleys starting to fill in.
In addition, a quick look at yesterday`s min dewpoints shows that
our eastern and southern counties have the best chance to reach
their crossover temperatures, based on forecast lows. With this in
mind have expanded the fog some north and west and gone up to areas
of fog for the coverage. Will monitor area webcams and obs overnight
to see if more dense wording/SPS/NPW`s are needed.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2013

Quiet weather is in store across the Ohio Valley through Friday
night as high pressure at the surface and aloft remains in control.
The only real concern during this time frame will be fog potential
again across south central Kentucky. Not as impressed as last
night`s set up since drier air is working in from the northeast.
Will just mention patchy fog across south central Kentucky and
monitor trends through the evening.

Otherwise, expect mostly sunny/clear skies to end the week with a
light easterly wind. Expect low to range mainly in the mid to upper
50s in most spots tonight, with lower 50s possible in the cool
spots. Friday will bring a slight warm up from today, with highs
topping out in the 78-83 range. Friday night will be similar to
tonight, with lows mainly in the mid and upper 50s again. The cool
spots will be in the low 50s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2013

A strong upper level ridge will be in place Sat causing dry
conditions and high temperatures in the lower 80s.

Sat night a cold front will approach from the WNW breaking down the
ridge and bringing precipitation into our area Sun morning.  The
front will weaken as it approaches our area due to the parent low
pushing much farther NE into Canada and also since the front will
have been pushing up against a strong ridge over us Sat night.  By
the time rains arrive Sun, looks like they will be in the form of a
broken line of showers with embedded t-storms.  Expect QPF amounts
of less than a third of an inch as convection moves through the area
Sun/Sun night.  The latest model guidance indicates that the line
will break up more and dry out a bit as it moves eastward so expect
the better rainfall amounts to be west of I-65 with lesser amounts
east of I-65.

Rains should quickly move out of the area Monday morning with mostly
clear skies expected by Mon afternoon.  The forecast becomes much
more uncertain for the middle of next week as the remnants of the
cold front become a weak boundary and settle over the Ohio Valley
Mon/Tues/Wed.  Weak ridging aloft will be in place causing a weak
inversion and subsidence.  Some models indicate the possibility of
showery activity Tues-Wed, however, they may be a bit optimistic.
Therefore will continue a dry forecast through Thurs.

Temperatures for next week will start out in the lower 70s on
Sun...increasing to the mid 70s for Mon/Tues and then upper 70s to
around 80 for Wed/Thurs.  Low temperatures will range throughout the
upper 50s and lower 60s next week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

High pressure aloft will keep the region quiet weather-wise. A weak
inverted trough may provide focus for a few lower clouds over south
central KY this afternoon. Clear conditions early this morning may
allow for denser fog to form across portions of central KY. TAF
sites had some drier air mix down Thursday afternoon, which may keep
them from going as foggy as KLEX and KBWG went yesterday. Thus have
gone a little more optimistic for those sites, but still have
periods of IFR conditions around daybreak.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 1228 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

Latest HRRR coming in with some fog over my northeast sections.
Satellite fog product shows the East KY valleys starting to fill in.
In addition, a quick look at yesterday`s min dewpoints shows that
our eastern and southern counties have the best chance to reach
their crossover temperatures, based on forecast lows. With this in
mind have expanded the fog some north and west and gone up to areas
of fog for the coverage. Will monitor area webcams and obs overnight
to see if more dense wording/SPS/NPW`s are needed.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2013

Quiet weather is in store across the Ohio Valley through Friday
night as high pressure at the surface and aloft remains in control.
The only real concern during this time frame will be fog potential
again across south central Kentucky. Not as impressed as last
night`s set up since drier air is working in from the northeast.
Will just mention patchy fog across south central Kentucky and
monitor trends through the evening.

Otherwise, expect mostly sunny/clear skies to end the week with a
light easterly wind. Expect low to range mainly in the mid to upper
50s in most spots tonight, with lower 50s possible in the cool
spots. Friday will bring a slight warm up from today, with highs
topping out in the 78-83 range. Friday night will be similar to
tonight, with lows mainly in the mid and upper 50s again. The cool
spots will be in the low 50s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2013

A strong upper level ridge will be in place Sat causing dry
conditions and high temperatures in the lower 80s.

Sat night a cold front will approach from the WNW breaking down the
ridge and bringing precipitation into our area Sun morning.  The
front will weaken as it approaches our area due to the parent low
pushing much farther NE into Canada and also since the front will
have been pushing up against a strong ridge over us Sat night.  By
the time rains arrive Sun, looks like they will be in the form of a
broken line of showers with embedded t-storms.  Expect QPF amounts
of less than a third of an inch as convection moves through the area
Sun/Sun night.  The latest model guidance indicates that the line
will break up more and dry out a bit as it moves eastward so expect
the better rainfall amounts to be west of I-65 with lesser amounts
east of I-65.

Rains should quickly move out of the area Monday morning with mostly
clear skies expected by Mon afternoon.  The forecast becomes much
more uncertain for the middle of next week as the remnants of the
cold front become a weak boundary and settle over the Ohio Valley
Mon/Tues/Wed.  Weak ridging aloft will be in place causing a weak
inversion and subsidence.  Some models indicate the possibility of
showery activity Tues-Wed, however, they may be a bit optimistic.
Therefore will continue a dry forecast through Thurs.

Temperatures for next week will start out in the lower 70s on
Sun...increasing to the mid 70s for Mon/Tues and then upper 70s to
around 80 for Wed/Thurs.  Low temperatures will range throughout the
upper 50s and lower 60s next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2013

High pressure will remain in control at the surface and aloft
through tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable to calm
overnight, becoming easterly around 5 knots tomorrow. Skies will be
mostly clear with just a few to scattered clouds. Fog may become an
issue at BWG again tonight. The latest guidance has backed off
somewhat on the fog possibility, but there may be enough low level
moisture remaining to push visibilities down into th LIFR range
towards dawn. LEX could see some light fog, while SDF is expected to
remain VFR through the TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......EER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 116 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING AND ALLOW A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0110L: CLDS PERSIST ACROSS THE FA W/ CLRG JUST N AND NW OF
THE AREA. HIGH PRES CONTS TO SLOWLY BUILD EWRD AND STILL EXPECT
CLDS TO BEGIN TO DCRS FROM N-S THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. HAVE ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS AND ADJUSTED
HRLY TEMPS WHICH ARE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN FCST ACROSS THE N.

934 PM UPDATE...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CEILINGS MOSTLY AROUND 4K FT AGL. THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS SHOWING
UP ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING WAS LITTLE
CHANGED FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW
750 MILLIBARS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME VERY
SLOW CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ONCE
AGAIN SLOW THE CLEARING BY A FEW HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY REMAIN M/CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY FRI MORNING.

631 PM UPDATE... THERE ARE A COUPLE OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
PARTS OF AROOSTOOK AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...MOST
AREAS ARE STILL OVC035. THE TIME HEIGHT FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE A LOT OF MOISTURE BELOW 750 MILLIBARS TONIGHT...AND IT
MAY BE VERY TOUGH TO GET RID OF THE CLOUDS UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HRRR APPEARS WAY TOO QUICK TO ERODE
THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPDATE WAS TO SLOW THE CLEARING
BY A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ADVECTING FROM
THE CROWN OF MAINE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS BANGOR BY LATE NIGHT. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F IN THE SJV TO THE UPPER 40S FOR DOWN EAST
AND BANGOR WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A SUNNY DAY WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND MILDER RIGHT THROUGH THIS TERM.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND
PROVIDING A WELL NEEDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE EMCWFMOS/BCMOS FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE 2 W/OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE BCMOS AND GMOS SHOWING
READINGS EXPECTED TO HIT THE 70S FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.
THE COAST COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEA BREEZE AND WEAK ON SHORE WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FCST LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE W/THE ONLY DISRUPTION
BEING A SUB-TROPICAL LOW MOVING UP FROM THE BERMUDA AREA GIVING A
GLANCING BLOW MAINLY TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST/OUTER ISLAND. THE
TIME FRAME FOR THIS WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF RUN MATCHED UP W/ITS 00Z RUN OF BRINGING THE SUB-TROPICAL
SYSTEM MME AND PASSING THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IF SCENARIO WERE
TO TAKE PLACE, THE OUTER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WOULD SKIRT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE OUTER ISLANDS. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND
GEM GLOBAL KEEP THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST W/THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION STAYING ON THE DRY SIDE. ATTM, DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF ALL
3 AS SOME THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF. THEREFORE, KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY INTO TUESDAY AND
HUNG ON TO A 20-30% CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE
OUTER ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
APPEAR TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRES RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AOA NORMAL. DECIDED TO
BLEND THE BCMOS INCLUDING THE ECMWF FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THE
GMOS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE ESTABLISHED
PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY OVC040 AT THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH THE CLOUDS BECOMING SCT
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SJV AND COULD IMPACT THE
KFVE TERMINAL FROM 08-13Z. KBGR AND KBHB WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR
BUT MAY BRIEFLY GO BACK DOWN TO MVFR FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. VFR AND
LIGHT WIND EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FRI.

SHORT TERM: VFR RUNNING RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS AND SEAS MOSTLY AROUND 2 FT ON
THE COASTAL WATERS AND 1 FOOT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. AS WINDS ADD SEAS ARE FCST TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WE AREA TALKING WINDS OF 10 KTS RIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWELL TO BE GENERATED BY
MONDAY FROM THE LOW APCHG FROM THE S. ADJUSTED THE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/CB/MCW/FITZSIMMONS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

TIMING OF CONVECTION FOR PRIMARILY THIS MORNING...AND THEN TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT SWINGS EAST...TO EASTERN MN LATE.

LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET...MAXIMUM SURGE
OF H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.  LATEST HRRR SHOWS
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF BANDS OF ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHEAST IS NARROW
MOISTURE PLUME.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...AS THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST EXITING COLORADO REGION
NOW...BEHIND THE INITIAL ONE.  DID MOVE POPS EAST TO THE MN/WI
BORDER THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFTED THEM TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FUNCTION OF CLOUD
COVER.  VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST SOME WARMER MID LEVEL AIR LIFTING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE.  THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAP THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND THIN THE CLOUD COVER
SOME.  DID A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED AND OFFICIAL FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY.   SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AGAIN SOME 35 MPH WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AMPLE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDER THREAT
OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK.  SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE MN/WI BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SAT.  DID SOME TIME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...BUT GOING
FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MODELS ARE IN FINE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH A DECENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPLYING A SURGE OF 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS AND 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A 3 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL
/80-100 PERCENT/ POPS ON SATURDAY MORNING /MN/ INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON /WI/. PROGGED ELEVATED INSTABILITY /BEST LIFTED INDICES/
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY /MAINLY UP TO 18Z/. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAINFALL EVENT...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH NEARLY STEADY TO SLIGHTLY FALLING DAYTIME
TEMPS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...SEMI ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE WELL INTO THE
70S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS FEATURE THE AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTS LIFTING INTO THE
AREA IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS
ON THURSDAY EVE/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THAT TIMING COULD SHIFT A BIT WITH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

SE WINDS HAVE GENERALLY SETTLED DOWN TO AROUND 10 KT...EVEN
SLIGHTLY LOWER AT A FEW SITES...AND WILL REMAIN AROUND THERE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING LLJ. NAM/RAP/RUC BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG WINDS /AROUND 40 KT/
VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO 2 KFT SO HAVE MAINTAINED LLWS MENTION TO
ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG. CLOUDS WILL
INCRS OVER WRN MN OVERNIGHT BUT CHCS FOR PRECIP REACHING THE WFO
MPX TAF SITES ARE CONFINED TO MAINLY KAXN-KRWF. TIMING IS A BIT
DIFFICULT DUE TO A RELATIVELY DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS
SO AM NOT LOOKING FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT. KSTC-KMSP MAY SEE A MIDLVL
CEILING DEVELOP BUT NOTHING MORE. CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWER AND INCRS
IN COVERAGE THRU THE DAY TMRW AS THE CDFNT MEANDERING OVER THE
DAKOTAS INTO NEBRASKA SHIFTS E. CHCS INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TO ENTER WRN-CENTRAL MN TMRW AFTN AND TMRW EVE.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT...ALTHOUGH CHCS FOR PRECIP
INCREASE BY DAYBREAK SAT MRNG. MAINLY A WIND FCST WITH WINDS
REMAINING SE TO S. SUSTAINED SE WINDS IN THE 6-10 KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW TO THE 15-20
KT RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT. HAVE MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION WITH WINDS UP TO 2 KFT COMING IN MORE SSW AT SPEEDS IN THE
35-40KT RANGE...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH VECTOR DIFFERENCE FOR
LLWS MENTION. MULTIPLE CU LAYERS TMRW WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND
THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MIDLVL CEILING. SHWRS WILL TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE W LATE TMRW
NIGHT INTO SAT MRNG...BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL OCCUR AFTER
DAYBREAK SAT THRU SAT AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR CIGS EARLY WITH -SHRA...POTENTIALLY IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VFR BY LATE AFTN. WINDS W 12-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS S 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 1129 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

BRISK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE BY MID MORNING.
ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT DID INCLUDE SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
AT 10 THOUSAND FEET OR ABOVE.

BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MILLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013/

UPDATE...

DID A MINOR UPDATE TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE NOSE
OF A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. 00Z NAM12...LATEST RUNS OF HRRR AND
HIGH RESOLUTION RAP SHOW THIS.

MILLER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013/

DISCUSSION...

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR
KHON TO KLBF. THE FRONT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SRN CANADA PER AFTN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FRONT IS BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL
FLOW AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS GENERALLY
TO THE WEST OF OUR FA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FM KS INTO NEB TONIGHT WITH THE TERMINUS
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SD/IA/MN. ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS INDICATES DECENT LIFT ON THE 305 AND 310 K LAYERS...BUT
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 75 MB
INDICATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY IN THIS REGION OF LIFT.
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/RAP INDICATE STRONG MUCIN OF
75 TO 100 J/KG FOR ELEVATED PARCELS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THUS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LIMITED IF AT
ALL IN OUR CWA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE
ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WARM H85 TEMPERATURES OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS. THUS WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL AREA IN KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES CLOSE TO THE SD BORDER. THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO RETROGRADE A BIT ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE BASE OVER THE TROUGH THIS AFTN OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CWA WITH ANOTHER WINDY AND WARM
DAY. WE HAVE INCREASED GOING HIGHS A TOUCH GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG MIXING AND WARM H85 TEMPERATURES.

THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM WILL START TO EJECT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO ACCELERATE THROUGH NEB AS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. MODELS
INDICATE STRONG Q-G FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A
WELL-DEFINED DIV-Q MAXIMUM MOVING FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE DAKOTAS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS INDICATED ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WITH THE STRONG CAPPING AND VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM TO BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS.
RAINFALL FOR OUR CWA APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED IN TWO AREAS...ONE
ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NE NEB...AND SECOND OVER
SE NEB TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL JET MAX. THE
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN POPS REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM WAS TO
SLOW THE TIMING ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALSO TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR BETWEEN THESE TWO FAVORED AREAS. THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL BE RAPIDLY EXITING THE AREAS ON SAT
MORNING. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET AND SEASONABLE.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER SYSTEM
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THERE REMAINS A GOOD
DEAL OF TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED FRONT.
CURRENTLY WE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER EC BUT DID INCLUDE SOME
SHOWERS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT IT COULD END UP BEING JUST
PAST THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE TRENDED WARMER AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SOME 80S POSSIBLE ON
MON-WED.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 301 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS OR SO. STRONG
WINDS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING LIKELY.

BUT FIRST...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED NORTHWARD OVER
THE LAST 18 HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS QPF WAS NOT
HANDLED WELL BY MODELS AT ALL.  THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ON WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSPIRE TODAY ACROSS NM.  SEEMS LIKE
THE GFS AND THE HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON THE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST...SO HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH A BLEND OF THOSE TWO MODELS FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE N/NW.
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS WELL. OTHERWISE... MAIN CONCERN WITH
PRECIP FOR TODAY IS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. COULD SEE SOME
STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.

ADDITIONALLY...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH...BUT A 999MB
SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NE NM. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A LOW END WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS AROUND THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  CONSIDERED ADDING UNION COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS.

AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS FROM WEST TO EAST...MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO PLUMMET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY. HARD FREEZES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MANY NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES...AS WELL
AS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NEAR GALLUP AND GRANTS. HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY...ZONES 501 AND 517...WHERE LOW TEMPS BTW
29 AND 33 APPEAR LIKELY. OTHER AREAS WILL BE TEETERING CLOSE TO
THE FREEZING MARK AS WELL. HAVE OPTED TO GO JUST ABOVE FREEZING
FOR SANTA FE...DUE TO A DECENT DRAINAGE WIND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT....AS WELL AS RATON AND LAS VEGAS...WHERE NW WINDS MAY HELP
KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORIARTY WILL ALSO BE CLOSE.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE SOME RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL PRECIP.  OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE STATE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. GFS REMAINS MUCH FASTER WITH THE
SYSTEM PASSAGE...AS THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND KEEPS IT THERE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THUS...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT INCREASING WINDS WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EAST APPEAR POSSIBLE.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY USHERING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS WILL BE NOTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CREATE LOWER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RH VALUES TODAY...WHILE VENTILATION WILL BE MOSTLY
EXCELLENT...ALTHOUGH LOWERING IN THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH THE
CHILLIEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZE...SUCH AS
FARMINGTON AND ESPANOLA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.

MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROJECTED FOR SATURDAY AS THE
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT STAYS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
VENTILATION WILL TAKE QUITE A HIT SATURDAY DUE TO POST COLD FRONTAL
INVERSION EFFECTS. LOTS OF POOR RATINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON
SATURDAY FOR THE WEST. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AND ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL FORM QUITE NICELY ALONG THE
MIDSLOPES.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS MIXING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT BRUSH THIS AREA.

MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS BRINGS A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA SATURDAY...FINALLY LIFTING
THE TROUGH AWAY FROM NEW MEXICO SUNDAY. WHAT WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT
ON IS THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER. DURING THIS TIME THERE MAY BE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LARGE WESTERN WEATHER SYSTEM CENTERED ON GREAT SALT LAKE
CIRCULATING STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN NM...WITH TROPICAL PLUME OUT OF EASTERN MEXICO CROSSING
THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND EN ROUTE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NM. CIGS
EXCURSIONING TO MVFR WILL CROSS THE AZ AND CO BORDERS INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING...WITH SHOWER
COVERAGE AND LOWERING CIGS EXPANDING EASTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN THRU 15Z. CIGS LIFTING GRADUALLY FROM
21Z ONWARD...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE FROM 22Z ONWARD
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING. TAFS CARRYING SCT025 GROUPS SIGNALING
WINDOW OF GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MVFR EXCURSION FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  32  66  34 /  20   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  59  26  63  28 /  50   0   0   0
CUBA............................  62  29  65  30 /  30   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  64  24  65  29 /  20   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  61  26  63  30 /  30   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  65  26  66  30 /  30   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  66  27  68  34 /  20   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  70  39  74  42 /  10   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  58  25  59  28 /  60  10   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  33  63  38 /  20   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  64  35  60  37 /  40   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  62  27  62  30 /  30   5   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  56  28  55  31 /  50  10   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  61  22  60  25 /  50   5   0   0
TAOS............................  65  25  63  29 /  30   5   0   0
MORA............................  66  30  62  32 /  40   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  72  33  68  36 /  20   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  67  34  64  38 /  30   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  70  35  66  38 /  30   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  72  42  70  45 /  20   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  75  45  70  48 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  76  41  72  43 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  74  42  70  44 /  10   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  76  39  72  42 /  10   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  73  41  72  44 /  10   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  81  45  74  47 /  10   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  69  37  68  40 /  30   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  70  38  68  40 /  20   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  70  34  65  36 /  30   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  68  39  64  39 /  30   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  70  39  67  40 /  20   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  72  45  71  44 /  20   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  66  46  64  44 /  20   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  72  33  64  36 /  20   5   0   0
RATON...........................  75  35  68  34 /  20   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  74  34  68  34 /  20   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  70  35  64  36 /  30   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  79  45  68  43 /  30  20   0   0
ROY.............................  75  41  64  40 /  20   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  80  48  69  46 /  20   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  79  45  69  45 /  20   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  82  50  73  47 /  30  10   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  82  50  73  48 /  30  20   5   5
PORTALES........................  83  51  73  49 /  30  20   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  83  50  74  50 /  30  10   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  87  56  78  52 /  30  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  79  48  71  47 /  20   5   0   0
ELK.............................  74  47  68  46 /  20   5   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-517.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ515-527>529.

&&

$$

34








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 340 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LOW
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT FRIDAY...STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA OVER MOST OF VT INTO WRN CPV THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER ERN ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC...INVERSION WILL BE
REINFORCED...KEEPING THE STRATUS DECK OVER THE ERN HALF TO TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE MORNING HRS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE CONTINUES TO REVEAL
PERSISTENT OVERCAST LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND
INTO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BEING
MAINTAINED BY NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN
MAINTAINING LOW CLOUDS. SHORT- RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
RESOLVE THE LINGERING OVERCAST POORLY AND OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE...THE RAP MODEL RH IS HANDLING THE SITUATION THE BEST. I
HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING OVERCAST AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH THE IDEA THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PROVE DIFFICULT TO FULLY SCOUR OUT. I`VE ALSO RAISED LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF IN THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND REMOVED MENTION OF FOG IN THE NORTHERN
CT RIVER VALLEY GIVEN LOWER PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING THERE. REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE (UPPER 40S MOST LIKELY ADJACENT TO LAKE
CHAMPLAIN).

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A MASSIVE RIDGE ALOFT CRESTS OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A RATHER LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS.
MIN TEMPS FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 AM EDT FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

ONLY WEATHER FEATURES TO SPEAK OF ARE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST STALLS
OUT OVER WESTERN NY AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE TWO OVER NEW
ENGLAND IN EFFECT BLOCKS BOTH FROM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND WEAKENS...WHILE THE COASTAL
STORM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS IS THE
FARTHEST WEST AND BREAKS OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ONLY WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATE MONDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND CENTER OF LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W.

FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT. CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE NOSES UP ATLANTIC COAST INTO
CENTRAL PA...AND SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE BRINGS LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. DESPITE NORTHERLY FLOW TRAJECTORIES
ACTUALLY ORIGINATE OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES. SKIES TO TREND TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY
GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG MOISTURE FEED OR SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
TO GENERATE MORE CLOUDINESS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS DAY TO DAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW
50S, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VFR VIS WITH SCT IFR CIGS AND
VIS IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR
NORTHERN HALF OF VT AND NORTHEAST NY. FOLLOWED PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND ADDED MVFR CIGS/VIS KSLK/KMPV IN LIGHT FOG/MIST FORMATION.
KMSS HAS BEEN CLEAR ALL EVENING AND NOW HAS FORMED LIFR CIG/VIS IN
RADIATION FOG. EXPECT KMSS TO REMAIN LIFR ALL NIGHT AND IMPROVE
AFTER SUNUP. DURIN DAY TODAY CIGS TO BECOME SCATTERED WITH VFR FOR
REST OF DAY AND LIGHT N WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-14Z EACH DAY ESPECIALLY
SLK MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 122 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LOW
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT FRIDAY...STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA OVER MOST OF VT INTO WRN CPV THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER ERN ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC...INVERSION WILL BE
REINFORCED...KEEPING THE STRATUS DECK OVER THE ERN HALF TO TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE MORNING HRS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE CONTINUES TO REVEAL
PERSISTENT OVERCAST LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND
INTO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BEING
MAINTAINED BY NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN
MAINTAINING LOW CLOUDS. SHORT- RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
RESOLVE THE LINGERING OVERCAST POORLY AND OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE...THE RAP MODEL RH IS HANDLING THE SITUATION THE BEST. I
HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING OVERCAST AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH THE IDEA THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PROVE DIFFICULT TO FULLY SCOUR OUT. I`VE ALSO RAISED LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF IN THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND REMOVED MENTION OF FOG IN THE NORTHERN
CT RIVER VALLEY GIVEN LOWER PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING THERE. REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE (UPPER 40S MOST LIKELY ADJACENT TO LAKE
CHAMPLAIN).

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A MASSIVE RIDGE ALOFT CRESTS OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A RATHER LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS.
MIN TEMPS FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT THURSDAY...PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MAINLY
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AS WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (POSSIBLY
SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE) DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST. THAT BEING SAID MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES STILL EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WASH OUT
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MOISTURE/ENERGY
BEING TRANSFERRED OFFSHORE AS OCEAN LOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS.

SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN OVERALL AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRY TO WORK TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BUT BUILDING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ACT TO KEEP MOST OF
THE ENERGY/MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. STILL WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA...MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SO RELATIVELY
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR AND RELATIVELY MILD EACH DAY...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 68-73F EACH DAY SUNDAY-THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VFR VIS WITH SCT IFR CIGS AND
VIS IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR
NORTHERN HALF OF VT AND NORTHEAST NY. FOLLOWED PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND ADDED MVFR CIGS/VIS KSLK/KMPV IN LIGHT FOG/MIST FORMATION.
KMSS HAS BEEN CLEAR ALL EVENING AND NOW HAS FORMED LIFR CIG/VIS IN
RADIATION FOG. EXPECT KMSS TO REMAIN LIFR ALL NIGHT AND IMPROVE
AFTER SUNUP. DURIN DAY TODAY CIGS TO BECOME SCATTERED WITH VFR FOR
REST OF DAY AND LIGHT N WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-14Z EACH DAY ESPECIALLY
SLK MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...HANSON








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 106 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A LOW
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT FRIDAY...STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA OVER MOST OF VT INTO WRN CPV THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER ERN ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC...INVERSION WILL BE
REINFORCED...KEEPING THE STRATUS DECK OVER THE ERN HALF TO TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE MORNING HRS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE CONTINUES TO REVEAL
PERSISTENT OVERCAST LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND
INTO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BEING
MAINTAINED BY NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN
MAINTAINING LOW CLOUDS. SHORT- RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
RESOLVE THE LINGERING OVERCAST POORLY AND OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE...THE RAP MODEL RH IS HANDLING THE SITUATION THE BEST. I
HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING OVERCAST AROUND ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH THE IDEA THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PROVE DIFFICULT TO FULLY SCOUR OUT. I`VE ALSO RAISED LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF IN THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND REMOVED MENTION OF FOG IN THE NORTHERN
CT RIVER VALLEY GIVEN LOWER PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING THERE. REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE (UPPER 40S MOST LIKELY ADJACENT TO LAKE
CHAMPLAIN).

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A MASSIVE RIDGE ALOFT CRESTS OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A RATHER LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS.
MIN TEMPS FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT THURSDAY...PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MAINLY
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AS WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (POSSIBLY
SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE) DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST. THAT BEING SAID MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES STILL EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WASH OUT
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MOISTURE/ENERGY
BEING TRANSFERRED OFFSHORE AS OCEAN LOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS.

SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN OVERALL AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRY TO WORK TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BUT BUILDING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ACT TO KEEP MOST OF
THE ENERGY/MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. STILL WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA...MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SO RELATIVELY
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR AND RELATIVELY MILD EACH DAY...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 68-73F EACH DAY SUNDAY-THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND
MOST OF VERMONT WILL LEAD TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
CONDITIONS BECOME VFR WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LOOKING FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK
AND KMPV WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z. ELSEWHERE
THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-14Z EACH DAY ESPECIALLY SLK MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...EVENSON/MUCCILLI









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

250 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND THEN INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE 850/700/500 MB LAYERS REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN 850 MB
RH INCREASES IN AREAS WEST OF MADISON.  THE 850 MB/700 SOUTH JET MAX
REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH 850 MB WINDS DO
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANCE IN 850/700 MB TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE VERY SHORT TERM WITH FOG. THE LAKE BREEZE HAD
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT THE LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD LONG WAVE
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO COME TO
SATURATION AND HAVE COOLED...WHICH IS HELPING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE
DENSE JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE. THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO
SHOW ALL OF THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND THE NEXT TIER INLAND TO
DEVELOP LOW VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL THEREFOR BE EXPANDED SOUTH. HOWEVER VISIBILITIES
WERE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4 AND 3 MILES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY.  THEREFORE THE DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY
TO BE WIDESPREAD.

THE FOG POTENTIAL IS LESS IN THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING BY WELL TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY QUICK INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GETTING AS HIGH AS 1.80 INCHES ON THE LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND AMPLE
FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH INSTABILITY IN SOUNDINGS...SO ONLY WENT
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DAY WILL BE TIMING THE
PRECIP...WITH MODELS STILL DIFFERING BY A COUPLE HOURS.
OVERALL...SHOULD NOT BE A VERY LONG EVENT...WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP
LIKELY MOVING THROUGH IN A FEW HOURS. SINCE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY...SHOULD BE A GOOD WINDOW TO WARM THINGS UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 925 MB TEMPS WILL APPROACH OR REACH 20C...SO
UPPER 70S STILL SEEM REASONABLE...WITH A FEW SPOTS PROBABLY HITTING
80.

.SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND THEN GENERALLY HOLD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOW POPS THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH
HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR TO EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL
LIKELY SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THEN THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER MAINLY
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LIFR FOG ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.  SOME IFR/LIFR IN LOW
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.  STILL SOME MOISTURE BELOW
THE INVERSION 4 THSD FT TO GENERATE FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.  SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING.  LESS FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

.MARINE...

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN DEVELOPING
SOUTHEAST FLOW.  DEW POINTS MOVING ACROSS THE THE LAKE ARE NOT THAT
HIGH.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE HIGH WAVES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ051-052-
     059-060-065-066-070>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 305 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...A DEEP
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PUSHING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TOW SYSTEM WAS DRAWING AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. ALSO OF NOW WAS
SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF KS INTO NEB. INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305K SURFACE PER
THE RAP WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED ACCAS/THUNDER IN A BAND FROM
EASTERN SD INTO EASTERN NEB. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ALMOST CLOSER TO WHAT WE CAN TYPICALLY
EXPECT FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. READINGS AROUND THE
AREA RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG AN NORTH OF I-94...TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHWEST
MN THROUGH CENTRAL NEB. RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
MN AND NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL AID IN ADVECTING/MIXING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. NAM SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 21-24C RANGE
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S...WHICH IS NEARLY 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT
AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED SHRA/TS WEST OF US THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS COULD OFFSET WARMING SOME ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH
RECORD HIGHS. THE RECORD FOR ROCHESTER AND LA CROSSE IS 86 SET IN
1987 AND 1943 RESPECTIVELY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
SOUTH FLOW TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINING JUST
WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RAIN-FREE AS A RESULT SINCE MOST OF THE SHRA/TS ACTIVITY LOOKS
MAINLY POST-FRONTAL AND TIED TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. APPEARS ABOUT A 50 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE SEEN WITH THE FRONTAL AND MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES/CAPE SEEMS
MINIMAL...CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE TIED MORE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET/STRONG 850-700MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COUPLED WITH NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S
AROUND THE NOON HOUR WITH NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLAN ON SHOWER CHANCES
EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 40S.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THEN
SLOWLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVERHEAD AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1110 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SIT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY
STIRRED IN THE VERTICAL. KLSE HAS DECOUPLED...RESULTING IN CONCERNS
FOR LLWS. LATEST RAP/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE SUB
2 KFT WINDS AS THEY WERE EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT IT IS BLOWING
PRETTY GOOD HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE. WILL STICK WITH THE LLWS FOR
NOW.

BREEZY ON FRIDAY...WITH MIXING RESULTING IN LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
GUSTS. A FEW 30 KTS AT KRST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD SAT MORNING...WITH
SHRA/TS LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS ON SAT. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK














AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 1055 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2013

...Updated synopsis and updated the afternoon precipitation chances...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

At 12z Friday a surface cold front extended from south central
Nebraska into east central Colorado. A tough of low
pressure/dryline was located near the Colorado and extended south
of this cold front into extreme northeast New Mexico. Across
western Kansas surface dewpoints east of the surface lee trough
were mainly in the mid 50s. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid
60s were advecting northward across the panhandle of Texas. At the
700mb level a wedge of higher dewpoints were evident from eastern
New Mexico into northwest Kansas. Weak instability also was
present along this moisture axis based on the North Platte and RAP
proximity soundings. This area outlined the early morning light
precipitation was occurred across far western Kansas. Further west
a -23c 500mb trough was located near the four corners region and a
300mb jet streak extend from just west of this upper trough
north/northeast into southeast Wyoming.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

Latest RAP and HRRR suggesting mid level moisture and light
precipitation will persist and slowly move east across across
western through the early afternoon. As the mid levels cool and
upper level dynamics improve...scattered thunderstorms still
appear likely by mid day. One area will be near this mid level
moisture axis which will be located in western Kansas. The other
area will be further west near the Colorado border near the
surface lee trough and along the cold front located in northwest
Kansas. Will therefore adjust precipitation chances accordingly
through the early afternoon to reflect this trend. Strong to
severe thunderstorms still looks on track later this afternoon and
early tonight with hail, strong damaging winds and periods of
heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

A busy and challenging next 24 hours is in store, as a rapid
sensible weather change will occur when the Northern Plains cold
front advances across the area later tonight. The very warm
airmass over western Kansas will become undercut by increasing
moisture as dew points increase into the 60`s on southerly surface
moisture transport through the day. Weak to marginally moderate
surface based capes will result by mid afternoon as modeled by the
SREF/WRF models, generally along a 50 mile wide corridor where
surface moisture pooling is enhanced ahead of a surface dryline. A
few fast moving (35-40 knots) right movers could develop before
clusters become linear in nature, presenting more of a convective
wind threat. An initial tornado threat is possible however the
rapid movement and relative parallel upper flow does not tend to
support anything other than very brief or short lived. A
significant and rapid increase in precipitable water to above an
inch and a half will support efficient warm cloud rain processes
as well, and localized flooding may occur with any significant
cell training.

In the meantime, prior to convective development, another breezy day
is expected with southerly winds in the 20 to 30 mph range again
given the persistent gradient. Given a marked increase in jet level
cirrus, an increase in moisture and not and much downslope wind
component, maximum temperatures will be not as hot this afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler behind the cold front (clearing skies
will support upper 40`s in the western sections) by very early
Saturday morning, with extensive mid level clouds across central
Kansas. A northwest downsloping surface wind factor will likely
preclude any widespread dense fog development despite very cool
temperatures and a moist boundary layer early Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

Saturday night will see an exiting cold front down in central
Oklahoma, with a southwesterly flow aloft. This upper level southwest
flow will begin a warm up, with Sunday max temps reaching the 76F
to 78F range. By Tuesday, maximum temperatures will have climbed
in the mid 80s across our southern boundary with Oklahoma, and to
the lower 80s north of I-70. Temperatures will level off in the
lower to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday. A small upper wave will
transverse into central Kansas Wednesday night, and there will be
a slight chance for a few thunderstorms across our northern 1/3rd
of the forecast area, basically north of highway 156. That upper
wave on Wednesday night will zip to the east or northeast quickly,
and Thursday should be dry. Looking into day 8, or Friday, the
axis of the upper trough comes into play and may bring more
widespread thunderstorm chances to all of southwest and south
central Kansas.

Minimum temperatures will also reflect a warming trend. Sunday
morning should be seasonably cool with lows in the 40s, then minimums
will rise into the middle to upper 50s by Tuesday morning, and
then even warmer to the upper 50s to the middle 60s by Thursday.

After loading the NAM model winds through 60 hours, and the ECMWF
model winds through day 8, the only windy periods appear to be
Sunday/Sunday night, and Wednesday night. It is hard to believe
SW Kansas would go so long without stronger winds, especially
since a surface high pressure is not involved.  I suspect wind
speeds will need to be raised by later shifts, especially during
afternoon periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

An upper level wave will move through the plains today, as a surface
cold front travels south-southeast this afternoon and tonight.
Breezy south winds early today will bring in increasing levels of
moisture. As the front encounters the moisture this evening,
severe storm are likely to develop. The main time for strong to
severe storms near the terminals will be between 00z and 04z.
Vsbys could dip to as low as 1/2 mile and cigs to below ovc010.
After the front passes, lingering showers will bring vsbys to near
5sm and cigs ovc004-050.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  52  71  46 /  40  70  10  10
GCK  88  50  70  47 /  50  70  10   0
EHA  84  52  69  46 /  60  70  10   0
LBL  88  53  71  47 /  50  70  10   0
HYS  89  51  71  43 /  20  70  10  10
P28  87  58  75  46 /  10  70  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening to 5 AM CDT
/4 AM MDT/ Saturday FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burke







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 1038 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1038 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

Now that the dense fog is just about gone we`ll send out a new ZFP
and HWO to reflect that.  The forecast is in good shape...only tweak
right now is to bump temps west of I-65 up one degree for MaxT this
afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

Ridge axis north/northeast of a strong upper high over the LA coast
will continue to keep subsidence over our area this period. Thus we
can expect temperatures a little warmer each day. Especially as
winds veer around from light easterly today to stronger
southwesterly Saturday, as a cold front starts getting closer to our
region.

Valley fog should become a nuisance around daybreak. Area webcams
are not yet showing any widespread issues in our forecast area at
this time. Latest HRRR continues to insist on our northeast area
getting some denser fog by daybreak. Have areas of fog in that
region in the forecast already but still think portions of south
central KY have a shot based on how high their dewpoints stayed
yesterday afternoon. We`ll be a little warmer and more moist
Saturday morning, so should have similar conditions tomorrow, but
for now will limit to patchy fog.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

The highly amplified upper-level ridge that will stretched from the
Gulf of Mexico northeast across the Ohio Valley Saturday will break
down Saturday night, as a shortwave trough pushes into the western
Great Lakes. This trough will swing through the Great Lakes Sunday,
with an associated surface low dragging a cold front through the
Ohio Valley. Scattered showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder
will move into southern Indiana and central Kentucky through much of
the day Sunday. Should see a slight decrease in areal coverage as
the precip pushes east into east-central Kentucky, as the front will
be moving into drier air and will also become disassociated with the
upper-level forcing Sunday evening. Rain showers will gradually
diminish across central Kentucky Sunday night and our southeast
forecast area through the first half of Monday. If the boundary
becomes far removed from the upper-level forcing than currently
forecast, precip chances might linger across more of the area Monday
as the front slows. Will continue to monitor trends. Otherwise,
rainfall totals of generally a third of an inch along the Ohio River
as well as west of I-65 in central Kentucky are possible, with
lesser amounts further east.

With the frontal boundary losing the upper-level forcing, it will
continue to weaken and wash out from roughly the upper Ohio Valley
southwest into the Tennessee Valley Monday through Tuesday. Aloft,
weak ridging will fill in over our area behind the departed trough,
producing a weak subsidence inversion late Monday through Thursday.
Cannot rule out a very isolated shower or storm, mainly across
south-central Kentucky, but currently believe capped afternoon
cumulus will be more common. So, will keep the forecast dry Monday
night through Thursday.

As for temperatures, highs will generally hold in the lower 70s
Sunday with clouds and precip across the area. Temperatures will
gradually moderate through the week, with highs ranging from the
upper 70s to lower 80s for both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Overnight lows will range from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

Clear conditions and residual low-level moisture early this morning
have allowed patchy dense fog to form across portions of central KY.
Thanks to some drier air mixing down yesterday afternoon, the fog is
not as dense as 24-hours ago. Will continue with temporary vis/cig
restrictions at LEX and BWG to start the period. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions as high pressure aloft will keep the region quiet
weather-wise. A weak inverted trough may provide focus for a few
lower clouds over south-central KY this afternoon. Could see a
return of patchy fog near daybreak Saturday, but low-level moisture
should dry out some more this afternoon. So, confidence is too low
for inclusion in this TAF issuance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......MJP






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 647 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

Ridge axis north/northeast of a strong upper high over the LA coast
will continue to keep subsidence over our area this period. Thus we
can expect temperatures a little warmer each day. Especially as
winds veer around from light easterly today to stronger
southwesterly Saturday, as a cold front starts getting closer to our
region.

Valley fog should become a nuisance around daybreak. Area webcams
are not yet showing any widespread issues in our forecast area at
this time. Latest HRRR continues to insist on our northeast area
getting some denser fog by daybreak. Have areas of fog in that
region in the forecast already but still think portions of south
central KY have a shot based on how high their dewpoints stayed
yesterday afternoon. We`ll be a little warmer and more moist
Saturday morning, so should have similar conditions tomorrow, but
for now will limit to patchy fog.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

The highly amplified upper-level ridge that will stretched from the
Gulf of Mexico northeast across the Ohio Valley Saturday will break
down Saturday night, as a shortwave trough pushes into the western
Great Lakes. This trough will swing through the Great Lakes Sunday,
with an associated surface low dragging a cold front through the
Ohio Valley. Scattered showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder
will move into southern Indiana and central Kentucky through much of
the day Sunday. Should see a slight decrease in areal coverage as
the precip pushes east into east-central Kentucky, as the front will
be moving into drier air and will also become disassociated with the
upper-level forcing Sunday evening. Rain showers will gradually
diminish across central Kentucky Sunday night and our southeast
forecast area through the first half of Monday. If the boundary
becomes far removed from the upper-level forcing than currently
forecast, precip chances might linger across more of the area Monday
as the front slows. Will continue to monitor trends. Otherwise,
rainfall totals of generally a third of an inch along the Ohio River
as well as west of I-65 in central Kentucky are possible, with
lesser amounts further east.

With the frontal boundary losing the upper-level forcing, it will
continue to weaken and wash out from roughly the upper Ohio Valley
southwest into the Tennessee Valley Monday through Tuesday. Aloft,
weak ridging will fill in over our area behind the departed trough,
producing a weak subsidence inversion late Monday through Thursday.
Cannot rule out a very isolated shower or storm, mainly across
south-central Kentucky, but currently believe capped afternoon
cumulus will be more common. So, will keep the forecast dry Monday
night through Thursday.

As for temperatures, highs will generally hold in the lower 70s
Sunday with clouds and precip across the area. Temperatures will
gradually moderate through the week, with highs ranging from the
upper 70s to lower 80s for both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Overnight lows will range from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

Clear conditions and residual low-level moisture early this morning
have allowed patchy dense fog to form across portions of central KY.
Thanks to some drier air mixing down yesterday afternoon, the fog is
not as dense as 24-hours ago. Will continue with temporary vis/cig
restrictions at LEX and BWG to start the period. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions as high pressure aloft will keep the region quiet
weather-wise. A weak inverted trough may provide focus for a few
lower clouds over south-central KY this afternoon. Could see a
return of patchy fog near daybreak Saturday, but low-level moisture
should dry out some more this afternoon. So, confidence is too low
for inclusion in this TAF issuance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........MJP






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 1002 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WE`VE DONE A COUPLE OF UPDATES THIS MRNG TO INCRS CLD CVR IN THE ERN
1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. 12Z IAD AND APG SNDGS ALONG W/ STLT IMGRY
PLAYED LARGE PARTS IN THIS. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION LENDS ITSELF TO
CAD IN THE MID ATLC. THE AREA OF CLDS IS FAIRLY SMALL...BUT OVR A
HEAVILY POPULATED AREA. THERE ARE MANY CASES WHERE ONCE INTO A
CAD EVENT IT TAKES MULTIPLE DAYS FOR THE CLDS TO BRK...AND MDLS
HV NEVER DONE A GRT JOB AT FCSTG AT FCSTG CAD DISSIPATION. SINCE
THIS IS SUCH A SMALL AREA OF CLDS - THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SWD
MVMT TO THESE...AND HRRR SHOWS CLDS MOVG OUT WE`LL KEEP CLDS OVR
THE ERN PART OF THE CWA DURG THE DAY THEN DIMINISHING TNGT. HIGHS
IN THE L70S.

TEMPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LM 40S
TONIGHT WHEREAS EAST AND NEAR THE WATER TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DIP INTO
THE 50S.

TEMPS WILL BE MODERATED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY. SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
CLOUDS THIS EVENING BUT MOISTURE IS STILL FCST IN SOUNDINGS FOR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH N-NE WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. 5K FEET CU FIELD SHOULD
DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 PTTN WL EXIST ACRS THE ERN SEABRD SAT
NGT-SUN...AS L/WV RDG AXIS FM GLFMEX TO NEW ENGLND TILTS IN RESPONSE
TO DPNG LOPRES IN THE WRN ATLC. ALTHO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RDGG WL
BE PINCHED OFF DUE TO WLYS ACRS CNDA...SUBSIDENCE WL REMAIN ACRS THE
MID ATLC. THEREFORE...WL BE PRESERVING PRVS /DRY/ FCST FOR THE PD.
SKIES SHUD BE MOSUN BY DAY AND MOCLR BY NGT. TEMPS WL BE COMPARABLE
TO SAT...BUT NELY FLOW MAY KEEP MAXT A DEGF OR TWO COOLER ALONG THE
WRN SHORE OF THE BAY.

A WK CDFNT WL APPROACH SUN NGT-MON...BUT THE OCEAN LOW WL TRAP
MID-ULVL RDG IN PLACE ALONG/E OF THE APLCNS...WHICH IN TURN WL
HASTEN THE DSPTN OF THE FNT. WL BE REMOVING POPS FM THE FCST DURING
THIS PD...BUT WL KEEP AN EWD SPREAD OF BKN CLDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES...BROAD RDGG WL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NXT WK-- CERTAINLY THE CENTRL AND ERN
CONUS. THIS WL SUPPORT MAXT AOA 80F ONCE AGN E OF THE BLURDG. DEWPTS
WL BE SLGTLY HIER TOO...WHICH WL CARRY OVER TO NEAR NORMAL MIN-T.
STILL NO RAIN XPCTD FOR THE DURATION OF THE 7-DAY FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

5-7K FT STRATUS DECK IS MOVING SW THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TDA.
CLDS XPCTD TO DIMINISH TNGT.

SUN-THU...VFR. LGT WNDS.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. NE
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN SATURDAY AND A FEW 18 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC...TANGIER SOUND AND SOUTH OF
DRUM PT. FORECAST WINDS WILL BE KEPT BELOW SCA.

A RDG OF HIPRES ALONG THE EAST COAST WL CONTROL THE WX FOR THE
OUTLOOK PD. XPCT ELY FLOW TO CONT THRU SAT NGT...BEFORE BACKING NELY
SUN IN RESPONSE TO LOPRES MVG NWD IN THE WRN ALTC. ALTHO P-GRAD WL
BE TIGHTENING...SUSTAINED SPDS SHUD REMAIN AOB 10 KT...THO MAY HV A
FEW HIER GUSTS IN THE MID BAY SUN.

THE LOW WL EXIT SUN NGT-MON...AND HIPRES WL RTN. BY TUE OF NEXT
WK...WNDS WL BECOME SLY AS THE RDG AXIS MVS OFFSHORE. SPDS WL STILL
BE STRUGGLING TO EXCEED 10 KT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO MOST AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIDAL
ANOMALIES FOR SENSITIVE AREAS SUCH AS ANNAPOLIS THOUGH WITH HIGH
FRI NGT AND AGAIN ON SAT NGT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HAS/HTS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 943 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

DID DECREASE POPS FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES UP INTO
CENTRAL MN AS THE INITIAL PUSH OF SHOWERS QUICKLY DISSIPATES AS
MAIN LLJ PUSH IS HEADING INTO NRN MN. DID HOWEVER INCREASE POPS FOR
A BIT THIS MORNING INTO SW MN AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NW IA IN A BAND IF ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THE RAP SHOWS THIS BIT OF FORCING DIMINISHING THIS MORNING
AS IT MOVES NORTH AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN LLJ THAT WILL BE
FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTH BY 18Z.

ALSO TWEAKED TIMING OF THE RETURN OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
MAINLY SLOWING THE ERN PUSH OF THINGS SOME AS THE 12Z NAM...ALONG
WITH 00Z HIRES NMM/ARW DO NOT SHOW MAIN DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP
MOVING INTO WRN MN UNTIL AFTER 6Z. IN FACT...THE 12Z NAM DOES NOT
SHOW THAT PRECIP MOVING IN UNTIL AFTER 9Z TONIGHT...SO MAY NEED TO
SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE DURING THE DAY.

AS FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT...THE 12Z NAM ALONG WITH THE LAST COUPLE
OF RUNS OF THE HRRR DO SHOW SOME ISO/SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT OUT IN WRN MN BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. UPDRAFT HELICITY
WITH THIS ACTIVITY ON THE HRRR IS NON-EXISTENT...BUT THE HRRR DOES
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH THE ACTIVITY IT
DEVELOPS. STILL THINK THE SEVERE THREAT IS PRETTY LOW...BUT WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS...YET. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER DOES HAVE ME WORRIED CURRENT HIGHS MAY BE RUNNING A LITTLE
WARM...BUT WARM NOSE WITH A TEMP OF 22C WAS SITUATED DOWN AT 900
MB ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING THIS MORNING. MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE
SFC WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
MIXING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WINDS PRESENT TO GET THE BOUNDARY
LAYER UP TO THIS DEPTH...SO LEFT HIGHS FOR TODAY ALONE...JUST
SLOWED DOWN HOW QUICKLY WE GET THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

TIMING OF CONVECTION FOR PRIMARILY THIS MORNING...AND THEN TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT SWINGS EAST...TO EASTERN MN LATE.

LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET...MAXIMUM SURGE
OF H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.  LATEST HRRR SHOWS
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF BANDS OF ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHEAST IS NARROW
MOISTURE PLUME.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...AS THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST EXITING COLORADO REGION
NOW...BEHIND THE INITIAL ONE.  DID MOVE POPS EAST TO THE MN/WI
BORDER THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFTED THEM TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FUNCTION OF CLOUD
COVER.  VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST SOME WARMER MID LEVEL AIR LIFTING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE.  THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAP THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND THIN THE CLOUD COVER
SOME.  DID A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED AND OFFICIAL FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY.   SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AGAIN SOME 35 MPH WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AMPLE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDER THREAT
OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK.  SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE MN/WI BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SAT.  DID SOME TIME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...BUT GOING
FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MODELS ARE IN FINE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH A DECENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPLYING A SURGE OF 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS AND 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A 3 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL
/80-100 PERCENT/ POPS ON SATURDAY MORNING /MN/ INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON /WI/. PROGGED ELEVATED INSTABILITY /BEST LIFTED INDICES/
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY /MAINLY UP TO 18Z/. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAINFALL EVENT...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH NEARLY STEADY TO SLIGHTLY FALLING DAYTIME
TEMPS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...SEMI ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE WELL INTO THE
70S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS FEATURE THE AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTS LIFTING INTO THE
AREA IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS
ON THURSDAY EVE/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THAT TIMING COULD SHIFT A BIT WITH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

WILL CONTINUE THE WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL EARLY OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE SHEAR POTENTIAL IS STRONGEST...WITH LIGHTER
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST
AROUND 37KTS. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AND WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP
FOR THIS AT KRWF/KAXN/KSTC THROUGH 15Z OR SO. DO ANTICIPATE IT
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND WILL MENTION SHRA AT KMSP. NICE SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. ACCAS REMAINS
TO THE SOUTHWEST IN MOIST PLUME PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA...AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THEN ANTICIPATE A BREAK
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WEST THIS EVENING. WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT IT EAST TO KMSP AREA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO DROP GRADAULLY TO IFR BEHIND FRONT...AND WILL MOVE
THIS THROUGH THE FAR WEST AFTER 06Z.28. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS PSBL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT MAY REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST IN TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.

KMSP...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF. SOME CHANCE OF AT
LEAST SHRA MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE 14Z-17Z PERIOD...AS THE
SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST. ABUNDANT ACCAS
BEHIND THIS WAVE...SO WILL LIKELY LINGER THE SHRA THREAT SOME.
SUSTAINED SE WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING 15-20 KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT. MAIN FRONT DOESNT MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SAT. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP OFF TO AT LEAST MVFR IN -SHRA THROUGH
NOON SAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR CIGS EARLY WITH -SHRA...POTENTIALLY IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VFR BY LATE AFTN. WINDS W 12-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS S 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 550 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

TIMING OF CONVECTION FOR PRIMARILY THIS MORNING...AND THEN TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT SWINGS EAST...TO EASTERN MN LATE.

LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET...MAXIMUM SURGE
OF H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.  LATEST HRRR SHOWS
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF BANDS OF ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHEAST IS NARROW
MOISTURE PLUME.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...AS THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST EXITING COLORADO REGION
NOW...BEHIND THE INITIAL ONE.  DID MOVE POPS EAST TO THE MN/WI
BORDER THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFTED THEM TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FUNCTION OF CLOUD
COVER.  VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST SOME WARMER MID LEVEL AIR LIFTING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE.  THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAP THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND THIN THE CLOUD COVER
SOME.  DID A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED AND OFFICIAL FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY.   SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AGAIN SOME 35 MPH WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AMPLE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDER THREAT
OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK.  SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE MN/WI BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SAT.  DID SOME TIME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...BUT GOING
FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MODELS ARE IN FINE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH A DECENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPLYING A SURGE OF 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS AND 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A 3 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL
/80-100 PERCENT/ POPS ON SATURDAY MORNING /MN/ INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON /WI/. PROGGED ELEVATED INSTABILITY /BEST LIFTED INDICES/
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY /MAINLY UP TO 18Z/. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAINFALL EVENT...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH NEARLY STEADY TO SLIGHTLY FALLING DAYTIME
TEMPS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...SEMI ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE WELL INTO THE
70S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS FEATURE THE AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTS LIFTING INTO THE
AREA IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS
ON THURSDAY EVE/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THAT TIMING COULD SHIFT A BIT WITH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

WILL CONTINUE THE WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL EARLY OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE SHEAR POTENTIAL IS STRONGEST...WITH LIGHTER
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST
AROUND 37KTS. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AND WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP
FOR THIS AT KRWF/KAXN/KSTC THROUGH 15Z OR SO. DO ANTICIPATE IT
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND WILL MENTION SHRA AT KMSP. NICE SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. ACCAS REMAINS
TO THE SOUTHWEST IN MOIST PLUME PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA...AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THEN ANTICIPATE A BREAK
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WEST THIS EVENING. WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT IT EAST TO KMSP AREA THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO DROP GRADAULLY TO IFR BEHIND FRONT...AND WILL MOVE
THIS THROUGH THE FAR WEST AFTER 06Z.28. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS PSBL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT MAY REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST IN TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.


KMSP...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF. SOME CHANCE OF AT
LEAST SHRA MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE 14Z-17Z PERIOD...AS THE
SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST. ABUNDANT ACCAS
BEHIND THIS WAVE...SO WILL LIKELY LINGER THE SHRA THREAT SOME.
SUSTAINED SE WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING 15-20 KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT. MAIN FRONT DOESNT MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SAT. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP OFF TO AT LEAST MVFR IN -SHRA THROUGH
NOON SAT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR CIGS EARLY WITH -SHRA...POTENTIALLY IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VFR BY LATE AFTN. WINDS W 12-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 547 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE STATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS
TO 4O OR 45 KTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND RATON
RIDGE...JOHNSON MESA. ALSO WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER. VFR CONDITIONS NEXT
24 HOURS EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE EAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z AND BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SOME BLOWING
DUST IN THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013...
COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS OR SO. STRONG
WINDS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING LIKELY.

BUT FIRST...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED NORTHWARD OVER
THE LAST 18 HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS QPF WAS NOT
HANDLED WELL BY MODELS AT ALL.  THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ON WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSPIRE TODAY ACROSS NM.  SEEMS LIKE
THE GFS AND THE HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON THE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST...SO HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH A BLEND OF THOSE TWO MODELS FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE N/NW.
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS WELL. OTHERWISE... MAIN CONCERN WITH
PRECIP FOR TODAY IS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. COULD SEE SOME
STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.

ADDITIONALLY...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH...BUT A 999MB
SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NE NM. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A LOW END WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS AROUND THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  CONSIDERED ADDING UNION COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS.

AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS FROM WEST TO EAST...MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO PLUMMET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY. HARD FREEZES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MANY NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES...AS WELL
AS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NEAR GALLUP AND GRANTS. HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY...ZONES 501 AND 517...WHERE LOW TEMPS BTW
29 AND 33 APPEAR LIKELY. OTHER AREAS WILL BE TEETERING CLOSE TO
THE FREEZING MARK AS WELL. HAVE OPTED TO GO JUST ABOVE FREEZING
FOR SANTA FE...DUE TO A DECENT DRAINAGE WIND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT....AS WELL AS RATON AND LAS VEGAS...WHERE NW WINDS MAY HELP
KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORIARTY WILL ALSO BE CLOSE.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE SOME RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL PRECIP.  OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE STATE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. GFS REMAINS MUCH FASTER WITH THE
SYSTEM PASSAGE...AS THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND KEEPS IT THERE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THUS...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT INCREASING WINDS WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EAST APPEAR POSSIBLE.

34

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY USHERING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS WILL BE NOTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CREATE LOWER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RH VALUES TODAY...WHILE VENTILATION WILL BE MOSTLY
EXCELLENT...ALTHOUGH LOWERING IN THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH THE
CHILLIEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZE...SUCH AS
FARMINGTON AND ESPANOLA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.

MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROJECTED FOR SATURDAY AS THE
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT STAYS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
VENTILATION WILL TAKE QUITE A HIT SATURDAY DUE TO POST COLD FRONTAL
INVERSION EFFECTS. LOTS OF POOR RATINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON
SATURDAY FOR THE WEST. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AND ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL FORM QUITE NICELY ALONG THE
MIDSLOPES.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS MIXING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT BRUSH THIS AREA.

MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS BRINGS A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA SATURDAY...FINALLY LIFTING
THE TROUGH AWAY FROM NEW MEXICO SUNDAY. WHAT WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT
ON IS THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER. DURING THIS TIME THERE MAY BE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-517.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ515-527>529.

&&

$$

40






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 1033 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS MOISTURE
RETURNS AT ALL LEVELS. HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO DEW
POINT/HUMIDITY FORECASTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MIGHT BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOW...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...IT SEEMS PREMATURE TO MAKE UPWARD CHANGES AT THIS
POINT. WILL REEVALUATE IN EARLY AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...THEN
INCREASE RAPIDLY ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
AND LARGER-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE ON THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013/

AVIATION...
27/12Z TAFS...VFR AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED A MAJORITY OF
FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA
EXPECTED NEAR/BEHIND COLD FRONT. WE WILL KEEP TIMING CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED OVER
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  69  78  57 /   0  40  80  40
HOBART OK         90  68  79  55 /   0  80  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  71  81  61 /   0  30  80  50
GAGE OK           86  60  77  47 /  10  80  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     89  67  76  53 /   0  60  80  10
DURANT OK         92  70  86  65 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/84




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 903 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.UPDATE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO FOG
BURNING OFF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF NEAR 80F OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKE IS ON TARGET FOR TODAY.


&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...COMING LATER THIS MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

250 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND THEN INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE 850/700/500 MB LAYERS REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN 850 MB
RH INCREASES IN AREAS WEST OF MADISON.  THE 850 MB/700 SOUTH JET MAX
REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH 850 MB WINDS DO
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANCE IN 850/700 MB TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE VERY SHORT TERM WITH FOG. THE LAKE BREEZE HAD
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT THE LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD LONG WAVE
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO COME TO
SATURATION AND HAVE COOLED...WHICH IS HELPING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE
DENSE JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE. THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO
SHOW ALL OF THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND THE NEXT TIER INLAND TO
DEVELOP LOW VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL THEREFOR BE EXPANDED SOUTH. HOWEVER VISIBILITIES
WERE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4 AND 3 MILES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY.  THEREFORE THE DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY
TO BE WIDESPREAD.

THE FOG POTENTIAL IS LESS IN THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING BY WELL TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY QUICK INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GETTING AS HIGH AS 1.80 INCHES ON THE LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND AMPLE
FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH INSTABILITY IN SOUNDINGS...SO ONLY WENT
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DAY WILL BE TIMING THE
PRECIP...WITH MODELS STILL DIFFERING BY A COUPLE HOURS.
OVERALL...SHOULD NOT BE A VERY LONG EVENT...WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP
LIKELY MOVING THROUGH IN A FEW HOURS. SINCE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY...SHOULD BE A GOOD WINDOW TO WARM THINGS UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 925 MB TEMPS WILL APPROACH OR REACH 20C...SO
UPPER 70S STILL SEEM REASONABLE...WITH A FEW SPOTS PROBABLY HITTING
80.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND THEN GENERALLY HOLD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOW POPS THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH
HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR TO EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL
LIKELY SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THEN THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER MAINLY
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LIFR FOG ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.  SOME IFR/LIFR IN LOW
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.  STILL SOME MOISTURE BELOW
THE INVERSION 4 THSD FT TO GENERATE FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.  SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING.  LESS FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MARINE...

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN DEVELOPING
SOUTHEAST FLOW.  DEW POINTS MOVING ACROSS THE THE LAKE ARE NOT THAT
HIGH.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE HIGH WAVES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 622 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...A DEEP
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PUSHING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TOW SYSTEM WAS DRAWING AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. ALSO OF NOW WAS
SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF KS INTO NEB. INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305K SURFACE PER
THE RAP WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED ACCAS/THUNDER IN A BAND FROM
EASTERN SD INTO EASTERN NEB. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ALMOST CLOSER TO WHAT WE CAN TYPICALLY
EXPECT FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. READINGS AROUND THE
AREA RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG AN NORTH OF I-94...TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHWEST
MN THROUGH CENTRAL NEB. RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
MN AND NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL AID IN ADVECTING/MIXING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. NAM SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 21-24C RANGE
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S...WHICH IS NEARLY 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT
AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED SHRA/TS WEST OF US THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS COULD OFFSET WARMING SOME ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH
RECORD HIGHS. THE RECORD FOR ROCHESTER AND LA CROSSE IS 86 SET IN
1987 AND 1943 RESPECTIVELY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
SOUTH FLOW TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINING JUST
WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RAIN-FREE AS A RESULT SINCE MOST OF THE SHRA/TS ACTIVITY LOOKS
MAINLY POST-FRONTAL AND TIED TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. APPEARS ABOUT A 50 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE SEEN WITH THE FRONTAL AND MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES/CAPE SEEMS
MINIMAL...CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE TIED MORE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET/STRONG 850-700MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COUPLED WITH NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S
AROUND THE NOON HOUR WITH NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLAN ON SHOWER CHANCES
EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 40S.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THEN
SLOWLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVERHEAD AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF DRY AIR...EMANATING OUT OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL HELP MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY STRONG TODAY
AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER MINNESOTA TIGHTENS UP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. PLAN ON GUSTS OF 25-30 KT...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AT RST...TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
HOWEVER... IMMEDIATELY THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO
DEVELOP AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 40-45 KT WINDS DEVELOP BETWEEN
1000-1500 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO COME
THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE...A COUPLE HOURS OF RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR
TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 632 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

INFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAINLY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AND
LOCATIONS WESTWARD. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN RAIN SO FAR ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CONVERSE AND CARBON COUNTIES WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE
AROUND 8000 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST PRECIP RATES. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED BY THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS EASTWARD.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. OTHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS
MORNING IS THE AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.
INCLUDED FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING BUT THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS LIFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE RANGE PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY UNTIL AFTER
THE FROPA.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BEHIND THE FROPA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST WY. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY WINDS TO 50 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHEREAS THE NAM IS
WEAKER AT AROUND 40 KTS. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE WINDS BUT LLVL MIXING WILL NOT BE IDEAL
SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HOWEVER...SINCE THESE AREAS HAVE
SEEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY THIS FALL SEASON...DID NOT ISSUE
ANY FREEZING HEADLINES THERE. TEMPS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 36 AS THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONVERSE COUNTY MAY GET CLOSE
TO A FROST ADVISORY WITH WEAKER WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STILL GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY IN
SOUTHEAST WY WITH 700MB WINDS AT 35-40 KTS AND GOOD MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL PERIODICALLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RIDE A 130+ KNOT JET STREAK NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25. SO...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. H7 TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C WILL YIELD UPPER 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND 70S/LOW 80S OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ONE OF THE SERIES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL
TRACK NORTH OF THE CWFA LATE MONDAY...DRAGGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THROUGH. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A FEW DEGREES IN WEAK LLVL CAA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL YIELD A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY MID 60S OVR
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES AND 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...A DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE SFC TROF WILL AMPLIFY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS WELL...INCREASING LLVL SFC WINDS. H7 WIND PROGS PEAK
AT AROUND 40 KNOTS. SO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGH WIND EVENT HOWEVER
WOULD EXPECT 40 TO 50 MPH TO BE COMMON ESPECIALLY NR ARLINGTON AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
ADDITIONALLY...WARM TEMPERATURES...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND  DRY
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF WILL SWING ONTO THE WEST COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY. FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFER
SOME ON THE TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND COLDEST. GIVEN
TIMING UNCERTAINTY...DID BEGIN TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD SUSPECT THAT THIS MAY END UP BEING A BIT EARLY
AND THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL TOO FAR OUT
TO FEEL MUCH CONFIDENCE...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

STILL EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KCYS THROUGH THE
MORNING IN MOIST EAST UPSLOPE WINDS. KEPT THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MVFR CIGS. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE
EVENING...HOWEVER BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...CAUSING MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO DROP
INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH. THUS...AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST WHERE FUELS STILL SUPPORT
FIRE GROWTH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 437 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

INFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAINLY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AND
LOCATIONS WESTWARD. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN RAIN SO FAR ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CONVERSE AND CARBON COUNTIES WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE
AROUND 8000 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST PRECIP RATES. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED BY THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS EASTWARD.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. OTHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS
MORNING IS THE AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.
INCLUDED FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING BUT THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS LIFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE RANGE PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY UNTIL AFTER
THE FROPA.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BEHIND THE FROPA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST WY. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY WINDS TO 50 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHEREAS THE NAM IS
WEAKER AT AROUND 40 KTS. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE WINDS BUT LLVL MIXING WILL NOT BE IDEAL
SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HOWEVER...SINCE THESE AREAS HAVE
SEEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY THIS FALL SEASON...DID NOT ISSUE
ANY FREEZING HEADLINES THERE. TEMPS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 36 AS THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONVERSE COUNTY MAY GET CLOSE
TO A FROST ADVISORY WITH WEAKER WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STILL GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY IN
SOUTHEAST WY WITH 700MB WINDS AT 35-40 KTS AND GOOD MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL PERIODICALLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RIDE A 130+ KNOT JET STREAK NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25. SO...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. H7 TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C WILL YIELD UPPER 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND 70S/LOW 80S OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ONE OF THE SERIES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL
TRACK NORTH OF THE CWFA LATE MONDAY...DRAGGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THROUGH. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A FEW DEGREES IN WEAK LLVL CAA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL YIELD A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY MID 60S OVR
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES AND 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...A DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE SFC TROF WILL AMPLIFY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS WELL...INCREASING LLVL SFC WINDS. H7 WIND PROGS PEAK
AT AROUND 40 KNOTS. SO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGH WIND EVENT HOWEVER
WOULD EXPECT 40 TO 50 MPH TO BE COMMON ESPECIALLY NR ARLINGTON AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
ADDITIONALLY...WARM TEMPERATURES...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND  DRY
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF WILL SWING ONTO THE WEST COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY. FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFER
SOME ON THE TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND COLDEST. GIVEN
TIMING UNCERTAINTY...DID BEGIN TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD SUSPECT THAT THIS MAY END UP BEING A BIT EARLY
AND THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL TOO FAR OUT
TO FEEL MUCH CONFIDENCE...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MOIST NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN IFR/MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING FIRST AT KCYS AND THEN SPREADING INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER THE SITES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
35 MPH FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...CAUSING MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO DROP
INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH. THUS...AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST WHERE FUELS STILL SUPPORT
FIRE GROWTH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

 1048 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

THE EASTERN UINTA MTNS AUTOMATED TOWARDS REPORT 2-3 INCHES WITH
INSTABILITY PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THE UNSTABLE
COLD CORE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT IS MARCHING TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS
LATE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG IT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
DROPPING FROM ABOVE 10KFT TO AROUND 8KFT BEHIND THE FRONT. CAMS ON
INDEPENDENCE AND MONARCH PASSES SHOW GOOD ACCUMULATIONS FOR
SEPTEMBER AND THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR PRODUCE SNOW THERE AT LEAST
UNTIL 04Z. SO HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES
9/10/12. ZONE 9/ GRAND MESA THE BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. ALL MTN ZONES IN ZONE 10 SHOULD
DO WELL WITH SNOW STICKING TO THE PASS HIGHWAYS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAKING FOR SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS. ZONE 12
SHOULD SEE THE BEST SNOW OVER ITS NORTHERN RIDGE INCLUDING MCCLURE
PASS...BUT ALSO COTTONWOOD AND MONARCH WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
HAZARD SNOW.

SNOW EXPECTED TO END IN THE EASTERN UTAH BEFORE SUNSET AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND THE MAJORITY OF THE FREEZE WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

AS OF 09Z...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS ALONG A KCEZ-KCAG-KRWL LINE.
A BROAD SWATH OF SHOWERS COVERED MUCH OF THE REGION 60 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. SOME SNOW EVIDENT IN THE TROUT CREEK AND
HICKERSON PARK SNOTELS WHERE AN ESTIMATED 1 AND 2 INCHES OF SNOW
WAS RECORDED. THESE SITES ARE AT AN ELEVATION OF 9400 AND 9100
FEET RESPECTIVELY. NO EVIDENCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WAS EXPECTED AS SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY
ABOVE 10000 FEET AND SHOWERS WERE JUST MOVING INTO THE HIGHER
RANGES.

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS UTAH
DURING THE DAY WITH THE 5H AXIS OVER WESTERN COLORADO BY DAYS END.
THE COLD FRONT DRIVEN ALONG AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL REACH THE
DIVIDE NEAR MIDDAY...THEN PUSH ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UPWARD FORCING FROM THE SURFACE TO THE JET LEVEL
CONSIDERABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS
ALSO FAVORED AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH
ESTABLISHING AN OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT OF LIFT TO WANING UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC FORCING. HERE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NEAR THE MOUNTAIN/S BASE
IN RESPONSE TO POST-FRONTAL ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR. MODELS STILL
SUPPORT DECENT ACCUMULATIONS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH EARLY SEASON
WINTER STORM WARNING. REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE QUESTION OF
WHETHER TO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO OTHER RANGES OF
THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. IN THE END...FELT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TOO LATE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER PASSES BY
DAYS END. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SO NOT A
QUESTION OF QPF TODAY. SINCE SNOW LEVELS CAN BE TRICKY EARLY IN
THE SEASON WILL SUGGEST THE DAY SHIFT MONITOR SNOWFALL CLOSELY.

ELSEWHERE...A BIT OF A DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH SO KEPT POPS
LOW OVER THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST BY MIDDAY. SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS WILL ALSO SUPPRESS HIGHS AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...DRY AND COLD AIR
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT AFTER SHOWERS
TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN CO
MTNS AND ALONG THE CENTRAL DIVIDE WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI
EVENING...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE 6500 FT IN NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING WITH THE COLDEST LOW
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE
IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A FROST OR FREEZE IN MANY VALLEYS BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS EVEN COOLER MIN TEMP GUIDANCE
IN THE VALLEYS THAN THE PREVIOUS 12Z AND 18Z MODELS. THE FREEZE
WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF WESTERN CO VALLEYS AND THE EASTERN
UINTA BASIN. IN THE GRAND VALLEY...LOWS OF 30-35 DEGREES BUT WITH
POCKETS OF UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS LOOK POSSIBLE.
AFTER A COLD MORNING SATURDAY...A DRY AND CALMER ZONAL FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH THE
HELP OF A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AND ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN UT/CO BORDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY...FLAT ZONAL FLOW PREDOMINATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE AREA MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH WILL AT TIMES RESULT IN  MVFR
VSBY AND/OR CIGS TO AIRPORTS WITHIN THOSE AREAS THROUGH
00Z/SATURDAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON...WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO 8000-8500 FEET MSL TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ001-002-006>008-011-020>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ009-
     010-012-013.


UT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     UTZ024.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...NL/JM
LONG TERM...JM/NL
AVIATION...EH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 1228 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 340AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MUCH OF THE WEATHER OF NOTE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THIS WEEKEND IS
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DIURNAL WARM
ADVECTION MAX HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD RESULTING IN HIGH
BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE MO RIVER.  THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS NOTED
FAIRLY WELL AROUND THE 315K ISENT SURFACE AND IS COINCIDENT WITH
SEVERAL HUNDRED RAP MUCAPES TOWARD 12Z.  VARIOUS HI RES MODELS SHOW
THIS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.  THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WANES LATER
THIS MORNING HOWEVER WITH ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD TEMPS AND WINDS
SO ONLY HAVE SCATTERED MORNING WORDING NW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HANDLED HIGHS WELL YESTERDAY AND SIMILAR MIXING WOULD RESULT IN
MID/UPPER 80S FOR MAXES...WHICH WOULD COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
RECORDS IN SPOTS. MIXING WILL NOT BE DEEP...ONLY UP TO AROUND
1KM...BUT STRONG RETURN FLOW MAY BRING GUSTS INTO THE 20S AND 30S
/KTS/ IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH HIGHEST GUSTS NW. ALTHOUGH MIXING
WILL NOT DROP DEWPOINTS TOO MUCH WINDS MAY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY NW HALF...AND THIS MENTION WILL REMAIN IN
THE HWO.

LONG WAVE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO ADVANCE TONIGHT AS CURRENT STRONG
SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF ITS BASE FROM UT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO SAT.  AS IS OFTEN TYPICAL WITH FALL
SYSTEMS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH INSTABILITY...MUCAPES ONLY
GET TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.  DEEP AND STRONG THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC FORCING IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE FROPA AND SATURATES
THE SOUNDINGS...REDUCING ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AND ABILITY TO
GENERATE MUCH INSOLATION AND SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A
BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION MARCHING W-E ACROSS IA SAT SO HAVE CONTINUED
CATEGORICAL WORDING. PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY TRANSIENT WITH ONLY A
THREE TO FOUR HOUR WINDOW OF RAIN PER THE NAM AND HI RES MODEL
REFLECTIVITY DEPICTIONS.  SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE
LIMITED CAPE...HOWEVER IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN SOMEHOW BE
REALIZED THE STRONG DEEP SHEAR COULD LEAD TO SUPERCELLS. 0-1KM
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG TOO...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE HOPE OF
GETTING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN TEMPS SAT DUE TO PRECIP AND FROPA
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON POST-FRONTAL MIXING AND RECOVERY.

QUICKLY DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO FAIR WEATHER SAT NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO MIDWEEK. COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE STRONG IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT LEE SIDE TROUGHING
WILL BE RIGHT BACK IN PLACE BY SUN NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY
RECOVER BACK TO READINGS SIMILAR TO EARLIER THIS WEEK. STRONG
WESTERLIES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH KEEPING US DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY THU
AS WRN TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME PERIODS
OF WEAK FORCING...BUT THEY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. HAVE REDUCED
POPS IN THE EXTENDED...ONLY RELUCTANTLY HOLDING ONTO LOW CHANCES THU
DURING SOMEWHAT ENHANCED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...THOUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
TO SITES BEGINNING NEAR/AFTER 12Z...SPREADING EAST TO ALL SITES BY
18Z. WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS WITH BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE LOWER IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
BEHIND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 327 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

Tonight through Saturday...

Analysis of the water vapor imagery at 19z depicts the potent
shortwave trough axis rotating through southern Wyoming. An embedded
wave and mid level jet streak within the mean flow was lifting
northward into western Kansas. Looking at the surface, the potent
cold front was oriented southwest to northeast from eastern Colorado
through northwest Kansas, through central and northern Nebraska.
Observations noted 30 degree F temp differences between the
boundaries with upper 40s in northeast Colorado. The surface trough
undergoing lee cyclogenesis over southern Colorado continued to
provide strong southerly winds between 15 and 25 mph with gusts over
30 mph during the current peak heating hours. In turn gulf moisture
streaming northward in advance of the sfc trough has brought
dewpoint temperatures into the low 60s. The aforementioned mid level
wave in combination with the surface front has continued to generate
elevated showers lifting northward across western Kansas.

As the upper wave lifts northeastward into the northern plains,
expect the lee surface trough and frontal boundary to quickly usher
eastward towards northeast Kansas. A line of numerous showers and
thunderstorms are likely to develop in vicinity and along the
boundary during the evening and overnight hours. Consistency between
the latest runs of the 3 km HRRR peg the edge of the precip and
front entering north central areas after 07z, impacting much of east
central areas(including Topeka) after 09z. While the highest
probabilities of severe storms reside towards western and central
Kansas, expect the instability gradient to drop steadily eastward
with only a few hundred j/kg of ML cape over north central areas
around 06z. However, strong effective shear values over 50 kts may
still allow for strong gusty winds from 40 to 50 mph. Locally heavy
rain is likely with the heavier showers as pwat values range from
1.25 to 1.9 inches. QPF values did not deviate much from previous
forecast based on fast track of the front ranging from 0.30 to three
quarters of an inch. Precipitation is expected to end Saturday
afternoon with cloud cover quickly exiting southeast as a drier and
cooler airmass settles in.

Temperatures tonight depend on thickness of cloud cover and showers
with lowest readings over north central areas where cool advection
behind the front will be filtering southward. Further east, lows in
the upper 60s appear to be more common. Expect temps to hover in the
60s for much of Saturday afternoon before a gradual warmup as the
clouds thin, topping out in the low 70s. Northerly winds remain
gusty through the period as the h85 shortwave trough continues to
impact the region before exiting Saturday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

As skies clear out and winds settle down behind the front on
Saturday night, overnight lows into Sunday morning are expected to
drop into the lower to middle 40s. Will need to monitor for fog
potential, but air mass is quite dry and therefore fog potential
could be limited to low spots. Sunday forecast to be sunny with
highs in the lower to middle 70s and light south winds. Lows
overnight into Monday should be a few degrees warmer as southerly
winds continue. Thermal ridge out ahead of the next approaching
trof expected to bring highs Monday through Wednesday back up
toward 80 and then lows only falling into the 50s to near 60 by
Thursday morning.

While the sensible weather forecast for Thurs/Fri remains similar
to that of mid week, the speed of an upper trof advancing eastward
into the plains will be the driver of true timing of rain chances
and colder air. Was backing off on progressive solutions as
several ensemble members along with the 00z ECMWF showing a slower
trend, however 12z runs are now coming in slightly faster. Opted
to keep slight chances for rain Thur/Fri, with timing chances too
uncertain to make large changes to a consensus forecast this far
out.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday
Afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

VFR at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with gusty south winds thru afternoon. Primary
focus is a cold front and line of showers/isolated thunder impacting sites
aft 07z at KMHK and 09z at KTOP/KFOE. Cigs lower to MVFR through the
early morning. Instability is limited with low confidence and only
vcts mentioned. Gusty south winds back to the southeast in the
evening before gradually veering to the west and northwest with
the fropa.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1249 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

AS OF NOON MDT/1PM CDT...WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW
POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN...WITH ITS BASE NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA. SW FLOW
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVER OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
ABOUT LIMON COLORADO...TO GOODLAND KS...AND NORTH INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONT...WITH RECENT RADAR RETURNS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS FRONT LIFTING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING EAST OF THE FRONT OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK REGARDING
COVERAGE...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE INDICATION OF FRONT LIFTING SO FAR...AND UNTIL IT
DOES THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AND SEVERE THREAT) IS IN QUESTION.
LATEST RAP SHOWS 600-900 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY AROUND 00Z IN THE EAST
WHICH ISNT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
THAT THE NAM HAS OVER 1500 J/KG OF MU CAPE IN A SIMILAR AREA. THE
DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO BE TIMING/POSITION OF FRONT WITH NAM
QUICKER/FURTHER NORTH. SHEER IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEER 50KT TO 80KT FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST...AND INCREASING
EFFECTIVE SHEER 40-50KT. IF WE CAN GET A STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT
(INSTABILITY DEPENDED) IT COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE CONSIDERING
THE SHEER PROFILES. LCLS ARE STILL ADVERTISED AROUND 9-10KFT
WHICH IS PRETTY HIGH FOR A WIDESPREAD TORNADO THREAT...SO
WIND/HAIL/HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...AND MODELS SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE 03-06Z PERIOD. I KEPT SOME
CHANCE POPS LINGERING THROUGH 09Z IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A
SLOWER FRONTAL EXIT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO
BE MAINLY A AFTERNOON/EVENING EVENT. PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF FORCING/MOISTURE
ADVERTISED...AND MODEL QPF FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE WEST TO NEAR ONE INCH
IN THE NORTHEAST. WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING/BACK BUILDING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.

REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP INCREASE IN
WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. LATEST MODELS
HAVE DECREASED THE WINDS ALOFT SOME FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...AND
SPED UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY TO ABOVE ADVISORY WIND GUSTS THIS
EVENING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO I DIDNT SEE A
REASON TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. IT CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH
12Z...WHICH MANY BE TOO LONG...HOWEVER IT DOES COVER THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWER FROPA IN THE EAST.

WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A VERY COOL/DRY AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE COOLER TEMPS
SO FAR THIS MONTH. IF WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10KT (WHICH IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED) WE COULD COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
WEST WHICH WOULD PUT US WITHIN FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA
(CONSIDERING TD VALUES AROUND 33F ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE MODEL
CONSENSUS). LOWS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE WEST TO NEAR 50 IN THE EAST...SO NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE SOME EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES...BUT THE MAIN STORM TRACK
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT AT THIS
TIME...THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE GFS PUSHES
IT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...SO
PREFER TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE COMMITTING TO
POPS. FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...MODEL CONSISTENCY BECOMES
EVEN WORSE WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE IN THEIR
UPPER PATTERNS BY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE...FORECAST WILL
HEDGE TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AT
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. WHILE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...I COULDNT
RULE OUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ADD MUCH LOWER THAN 6SM VIS WITH SHRA...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR/UPDATE BASED ON RADAR/OBS TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP
SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY VARIABLE IN PROXIMITY TO FRONT...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SHIFTING/INCREASING WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH AS FRONT LIFTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES EAST NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE WITH WINDS
FINALLY DROPPING BACK TO AROUND 12KT OR LESS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MDT
     /6 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MDT
     /6 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1230 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

AS OF NOON MDT/1PM CDT...WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW
POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN...WITH ITS BASE NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA. SW FLOW
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVER OUR
CWA. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
ABOUT LIMON COLORADO...TO GOODLAND KS...AND NORTH INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONT...WITH RECENT RADAR RETURNS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS FRONT LIFTING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING EAST OF THE FRONT OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK REGARDING
COVERAGE...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE INDICATION OF FRONT LIFTING SO FAR...AND UNTIL IT
DOES THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AND SEVERE THREAT) IS IN QUESTION.
LATEST RAP SHOWS 600-900 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY AROUND 00Z IN THE EAST
WHICH ISNT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
THAT THE NAM HAS OVER 1500 J/KG OF MU CAPE IN A SIMILAR AREA. THE
DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO BE TIMING/POSITION OF FRONT WITH NAM
QUICKER/FURTHER NORTH. SHEER IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEER 50KT TO 80KT FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST...AND INCREASING
EFFECTIVE SHEER 40-50KT. IF WE CAN GET A STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT
(INSTABILITY DEPENDED) IT COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE CONSIDERING
THE SHEER PROFILES. LCLS ARE STILL ADVERTISED AROUND 9-10KFT
WHICH IS PRETTY HIGH FOR A WIDESPREAD TORNADO THREAT...SO
WIND/HAIL/HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...AND MODELS SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE 03-06Z PERIOD. I KEPT SOME
CHANCE POPS LINGERING THROUGH 09Z IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A
SLOWER FRONTAL EXIT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO
BE MAINLY A AFTERNOON/EVENING EVENT. PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF FORCING/MOISTURE
ADVERTISED...AND MODEL QPF FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE WEST TO NEAR ONE INCH
IN THE NORTHEAST. WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING/BACK BUILDING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.

REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP INCREASE IN
WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. LATEST MODELS
HAVE DECREASED THE WINDS ALOFT SOME FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...AND
SPED UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY TO ABOVE ADVISORY WIND GUSTS THIS
EVENING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO I DIDNT SEE A
REASON TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. IT CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH
12Z...WHICH MANY BE TOO LONG...HOWEVER IT DOES COVER THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWER FROPA IN THE EAST.

WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A VERY COOL/DRY AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE COOLER TEMPS
SO FAR THIS MONTH. IF WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10KT (WHICH IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED) WE COULD COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
WEST WHICH WOULD PUT US WITHIN FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA
(CONSIDERING TD VALUES AROUND 33F ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE MODEL
CONSENSUS). LOWS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN THE WEST TO NEAR 50 IN THE EAST...SO NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE PRETTY WELL IN LINE FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED AND THEN HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING...STRENGTH...AND POSITION OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AFFECTING THE CWA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY...CREATING DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS START TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AND THE ECMWF NOT HAVING THIS FEATURE. THE GFS ALSO DID NOT HAVE
THE GREATEST MOISTURE OR SHEAR WITH THE TROUGH...SO WENT DRY FOR
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA...BUT THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES HAVE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING
IN SOME MOISTURE ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...BASED ON THE
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
THURSDAY WAS KEPT DRY...WITH THURSDAY NIGHT HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE CWA. WHEN THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...POPS MAY CHANGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TIME
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE EXTENDED RANGE SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
POPS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS TO SEE
HOW THAT PANS OUT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AT
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. WHILE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...I COULDNT
RULE OUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ADD MUCH LOWER THAN 6SM VIS WITH SHRA...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR/UPDATE BASED ON RADAR/OBS TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP
SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY VARIABLE IN PROXIMITY TO FRONT...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SHIFTING/INCREASING WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH AS FRONT LIFTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES EAST NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE WITH WINDS
FINALLY DROPPING BACK TO AROUND 12KT OR LESS AFTER 09Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MDT
     /6 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MDT
     /6 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...DR








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 1243 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2013

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

At 12z Friday a surface cold front extended from south central
Nebraska into east central Colorado. A tough of low
pressure/dryline was located near the Colorado and extended south
of this cold front into extreme northeast New Mexico. Across
western Kansas surface dewpoints east of the surface lee trough
were mainly in the mid 50s. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid
60s were advecting northward across the panhandle of Texas. At the
700mb level a wedge of higher dewpoints were evident from eastern
New Mexico into northwest Kansas. Weak instability also was
present along this moisture axis based on the North Platte and RAP
proximity soundings. This area outlined the early morning light
precipitation was occurred across far western Kansas. Further west
a -23c 500mb trough was located near the four corners region and a
300mb jet streak extend from just west of this upper trough
north/northeast into southeast Wyoming.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

Latest RAP and HRRR suggesting mid level moisture and light
precipitation will persist and slowly move east across across
western through the early afternoon. As the mid levels cool and
upper level dynamics improve...scattered thunderstorms still
appear likely by mid day. One area will be near this mid level
moisture axis which will be located in western Kansas. The other
area will be further west near the Colorado border near the
surface lee trough and along the cold front located in northwest
Kansas. Will therefore adjust precipitation chances accordingly
through the early afternoon to reflect this trend. Strong to
severe thunderstorms still looks on track later this afternoon and
early tonight with hail, strong damaging winds and periods of
heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

A busy and challenging next 24 hours is in store, as a rapid
sensible weather change will occur when the Northern Plains cold
front advances across the area later tonight. The very warm
airmass over western Kansas will become undercut by increasing
moisture as dew points increase into the 60`s on southerly surface
moisture transport through the day. Weak to marginally moderate
surface based capes will result by mid afternoon as modeled by the
SREF/WRF models, generally along a 50 mile wide corridor where
surface moisture pooling is enhanced ahead of a surface dryline. A
few fast moving (35-40 knots) right movers could develop before
clusters become linear in nature, presenting more of a convective
wind threat. An initial tornado threat is possible however the
rapid movement and relative parallel upper flow does not tend to
support anything other than very brief or short lived. A
significant and rapid increase in precipitable water to above an
inch and a half will support efficient warm cloud rain processes
as well, and localized flooding may occur with any significant
cell training.

In the meantime, prior to convective development, another breezy day
is expected with southerly winds in the 20 to 30 mph range again
given the persistent gradient. Given a marked increase in jet level
cirrus, an increase in moisture and not and much downslope wind
component, maximum temperatures will be not as hot this afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler behind the cold front (clearing skies
will support upper 40`s in the western sections) by very early
Saturday morning, with extensive mid level clouds across central
Kansas. A northwest downsloping surface wind factor will likely
preclude any widespread dense fog development despite very cool
temperatures and a moist boundary layer early Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

Saturday night will see an exiting cold front down in central
Oklahoma, with a southwesterly flow aloft. This upper level southwest
flow will begin a warm up, with Sunday max temps reaching the 76F
to 78F range. By Tuesday, maximum temperatures will have climbed
in the mid 80s across our southern boundary with Oklahoma, and to
the lower 80s north of I-70. Temperatures will level off in the
lower to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday. A small upper wave will
transverse into central Kansas Wednesday night, and there will be
a slight chance for a few thunderstorms across our northern 1/3rd
of the forecast area, basically north of highway 156. That upper
wave on Wednesday night will zip to the east or northeast quickly,
and Thursday should be dry. Looking into day 8, or Friday, the
axis of the upper trough comes into play and may bring more
widespread thunderstorm chances to all of southwest and south
central Kansas.

Minimum temperatures will also reflect a warming trend. Sunday
morning should be seasonably cool with lows in the 40s, then minimums
will rise into the middle to upper 50s by Tuesday morning, and
then even warmer to the upper 50s to the middle 60s by Thursday.

After loading the NAM model winds through 60 hours, and the ECMWF
model winds through day 8, the only windy periods appear to be
Sunday/Sunday night, and Wednesday night. It is hard to believe
SW Kansas would go so long without stronger winds, especially
since a surface high pressure is not involved.  I suspect wind
speeds will need to be raised by later shifts, especially during
afternoon periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

Gusty south winds at 20 to 25 knots can be expected through the
remainder of the day as surface pressures fall along the lee of
the Rockies. Mid level moisture will spread east across western
Kansas during the afternoon as an upper level trough approaches
the central high plains from the west. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are expected to develop across western Kansas with
the better time for convection at any taf site being after 00z given
0-6km shear, moisture, and instability ahead of the upper level
trough. Based on the 12z NAM bufr soundings afternoon and evening
cigs will be at or above 5000ft AGL. The exception will be near
the evening thunderstorms where cigs and/or vsbys will briefly
fall into the IFR category. A cold front will surge south across
western between 04z and 09z. As this front passes the south winds
will shift to the north and increase to near 25kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  52  71  46 /  40  70  10  10
GCK  88  50  70  47 /  50  70  10   0
EHA  84  52  69  46 /  60  70  10   0
LBL  88  53  71  47 /  50  70  10   0
HYS  89  51  71  43 /  20  70  10  10
P28  87  58  75  46 /  10  70  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening to 5 AM CDT
/4 AM MDT/ Saturday FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

 117 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1038 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

Now that the dense fog is just about gone we`ll send out a new ZFP
and HWO to reflect that.  The forecast is in good shape...only tweak
right now is to bump temps west of I-65 up one degree for MaxT this
afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

Ridge axis north/northeast of a strong upper high over the LA coast
will continue to keep subsidence over our area this period. Thus we
can expect temperatures a little warmer each day. Especially as
winds veer around from light easterly today to stronger
southwesterly Saturday, as a cold front starts getting closer to our
region.

Valley fog should become a nuisance around daybreak. Area webcams
are not yet showing any widespread issues in our forecast area at
this time. Latest HRRR continues to insist on our northeast area
getting some denser fog by daybreak. Have areas of fog in that
region in the forecast already but still think portions of south
central KY have a shot based on how high their dewpoints stayed
yesterday afternoon. We`ll be a little warmer and more moist
Saturday morning, so should have similar conditions tomorrow, but
for now will limit to patchy fog.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

The highly amplified upper-level ridge that will stretched from the
Gulf of Mexico northeast across the Ohio Valley Saturday will break
down Saturday night, as a shortwave trough pushes into the western
Great Lakes. This trough will swing through the Great Lakes Sunday,
with an associated surface low dragging a cold front through the
Ohio Valley. Scattered showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder
will move into southern Indiana and central Kentucky through much of
the day Sunday. Should see a slight decrease in areal coverage as
the precip pushes east into east-central Kentucky, as the front will
be moving into drier air and will also become disassociated with the
upper-level forcing Sunday evening. Rain showers will gradually
diminish across central Kentucky Sunday night and our southeast
forecast area through the first half of Monday. If the boundary
becomes far removed from the upper-level forcing than currently
forecast, precip chances might linger across more of the area Monday
as the front slows. Will continue to monitor trends. Otherwise,
rainfall totals of generally a third of an inch along the Ohio River
as well as west of I-65 in central Kentucky are possible, with
lesser amounts further east.

With the frontal boundary losing the upper-level forcing, it will
continue to weaken and wash out from roughly the upper Ohio Valley
southwest into the Tennessee Valley Monday through Tuesday. Aloft,
weak ridging will fill in over our area behind the departed trough,
producing a weak subsidence inversion late Monday through Thursday.
Cannot rule out a very isolated shower or storm, mainly across
south-central Kentucky, but currently believe capped afternoon
cumulus will be more common. So, will keep the forecast dry Monday
night through Thursday.

As for temperatures, highs will generally hold in the lower 70s
Sunday with clouds and precip across the area. Temperatures will
gradually moderate through the week, with highs ranging from the
upper 70s to lower 80s for both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Overnight lows will range from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2013

High pressure crossing New England and ridging back to the Gulf of
Mexico will keep our weather quiet through the TAF period.  Despite
the occurrence of fog the past couple of mornings, fog tonight is
still a question mark.  We`ll have a very similar synoptic set-up
tonight as the past couple of nights.  However we`ll have had
another day of drying and the trend from yesterday morning to this
morning has been a decrease in fog coverage.  Model data indicate
some moisture around 850hPa as well as some cirrus streaming in from
the Plains by Saturday morning.  Also, models that did an excellent
job predicting this morning`s fog are forecasting little if any (at
the TAF sites) tomorrow morning.  So, bottom line, will bring in
some light fog but for now won`t bring vsbys down as far as they
went this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......13






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 331 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN EDGE OF THE
ROCKIES.

AT THE SFC...CYCLOGENESIS HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE ACROSS SE COLORADO
TODAY...WHERE BETWEEN 12Z AND 19Z WE HAVE SEEN A 1001 MB LOW DEEPEN
INTO A 997 MB LOW. AT 3 PM...A MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDED FROM THE COLORADO LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN SODAK AND OFF TO
NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
ROCKIES WAVE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS CLOUD TOPS BEGIN TO COOL FROM
NW KS UP INTO SE SODAK. THIS IS THE BEGINNINGS OF THE POST FRONTAL
BAND OF FGEN INDUCED PRECIP THAT ALL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING...WEST OF THE MPX AREA. BESIDE THE COOLING CLOUD
TOPS...SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING CLEARING RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS
MN AND WE HAVE REALLY SEEN WINDS/TEMPS RESPOND TO THE
CLEARING...WITH FAIRMONT HITTING 88 AT 3 PM...ALONG WITH GUSTS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN ALSO APPROACHING 40 MPH.

BIGGEST CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP TONIGHT. THE REASON IS THAT THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED FGEN
BAND DO NOT LOOK TO MOVE EAST UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH DOES NOT BEGIN TO HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 6Z.
GIVEN STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...SEEING STRONG
AGREEMENT AMONG HIRES MODELS...WITH EVERYTHING FROM THE HOPWRF
MEMBERS TO YOUR SPC/NMM/ARW WRFS SHOWING RAIN NOT BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO WRN MN UNTIL ALMOST 9Z. THOUGHT ORIENTATION OF INHERITED POPS
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKED GOOD...SO MAINTAINED THE LOOK OF
THE POP GRIDS...JUST SLOWED THINGS DOWN BY 3 OR 4 HOURS TODAY.

HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE NW CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
AS THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z...BUT THE MAIN SHOW PRECIPITATION
WISE IS COMING LATE TONIGHT. IF WE DO GET CONVECTION TO FIRE AS THE
HRRR SUGGESTS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY OF IT WILL BE SEVERE THANKS TO
SBCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WOULD NEED MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY TO
GET MUCH MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE ANY THUNDER MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST SINCE FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL JUST BE RAIN. BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH...SO
MAINTAINED THE ISO THUNDER WORDING.

FOR QPF...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS REMAINED QUITE HIGH IN 0.3-0.5 INCHES
FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SO KEPT THE QPF FORECAST CLOSE TO
A WPC/MODEL BLEND.

FINALLY FOR TEMPERATURES...BEING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ONLY FALLING BACK INTO
THE MID 60S FOR LOWS...WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL...FOR HIGHS THIS
TIME OF YEAR! FOR SATURDAY...USED THE NAM TO RUN THE DIURNAL TREND
FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH RESULTED IN FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN THE ERN CWA AS THE BAND OF RAIN MOVES FROM
ERN MN INTO WRN WI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

AFTER SATURDAY SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...THE MEAN
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND SFC FEATURES WILL BE WELL INTO
CANADA LEADING TO A DRY PERIOD THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...THE PACIFIC NW HAS BEEN VERY WET DUE
TO A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED THRU THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. OUR REGION WILL HOLD ONTO A MORE FAST WEST TO EAST
FLOW...WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE SE MUCH WARMER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD. THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE /PACIFIC NW/...WHICH IS A DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE SE...AND THE PACIFIC NW...THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. BASICALLY THIS IS A WETTER PATTERN FOR
THE UPPER MIDWEST AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH A POWERFUL JET STREAM PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
THE UPPER JET ALONE WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHC OF CYCLOGENESIS
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS /INCREASING MOIST FROM THE GULF/ AND AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHC/S. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS TIMING OF
THIS PATTERN CHG...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO SFC FEATURES. BOTH THE
GFS/EC HAVE A SIMILAR PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DIFFERENCES
ARISE IN THE AMPLIFICATION. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED...ESPECIALLY
BY FRIDAY WITH A CUT OFF SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT HAS THE SAME LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN U.S. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE 50H PATTERN SEEMS
TO BE MORE IN LINE OF A DEEPER TROUGH...AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL HOLD ONTO THE CHC/LIKELY POPS
FOR THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TRENDS OF THE MODELS WILL
DICTATE THE STRENGTH AND SPEED ONCE THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHG
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A FINAL NOTE...BOTH THE GFS/EC DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
ONCE THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS AND MOVES THRU THE WEEKEND OF OCTOBER
5TH. 85H TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

AREA OF SHRA WILL LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEFLY
IMPACTING AXN/STC. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL COME IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT BEFORE THAT COMES IN...THE HRRR DOES SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PREFRONTAL SHRA/TSRA IN THE AXN/RWF AREA
BETWEEN 2 AND 5Z. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWED LEAD OF GUIDANCE IN SLOWING
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS TONIGHT BY A
FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO TEMPERED WINDS SLIGHTLY TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED MIXING. ALSO SLOWED VEERING OF WINDS TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROJECTION. FOR
CIGS...HAVE KEPT CIGS NO WORSE THAN MVFR...BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WITH THE RAIN MOVING THROUGH.

KMSP...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES THROUGH
19Z...BUT MAIN PRECIP WILL BE COMING SAT MORNING. STRONG AGREEMENT
AMONGST HI-RES REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WITH RAIN MOVING IN TO THE
FIELD AFTER 12Z. THEY ARE LIKELY A LITTLE SLOW...BUT BY ONLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CIGS ABOVE 017...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING WHERE CIGS BETWEEN 010
AND 015 WILL BE POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
.SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
.MON...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
.TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPG
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 108 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

DID DECREASE POPS FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES UP INTO
CENTRAL MN AS THE INITIAL PUSH OF SHOWERS QUICKLY DISSIPATES AS
MAIN LLJ PUSH IS HEADING INTO NRN MN. DID HOWEVER INCREASE POPS FOR
A BIT THIS MORNING INTO SW MN AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NW IA IN A BAND IF ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THE RAP SHOWS THIS BIT OF FORCING DIMINISHING THIS MORNING
AS IT MOVES NORTH AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN LLJ THAT WILL BE
FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTH BY 18Z.

ALSO TWEAKED TIMING OF THE RETURN OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
MAINLY SLOWING THE ERN PUSH OF THINGS SOME AS THE 12Z NAM...ALONG
WITH 00Z HIRES NMM/ARW DO NOT SHOW MAIN DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIP
MOVING INTO WRN MN UNTIL AFTER 6Z. IN FACT...THE 12Z NAM DOES NOT
SHOW THAT PRECIP MOVING IN UNTIL AFTER 9Z TONIGHT...SO MAY NEED TO
SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE DURING THE DAY.

AS FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT...THE 12Z NAM ALONG WITH THE LAST COUPLE
OF RUNS OF THE HRRR DO SHOW SOME ISO/SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT OUT IN WRN MN BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. UPDRAFT HELICITY
WITH THIS ACTIVITY ON THE HRRR IS NON-EXISTENT...BUT THE HRRR DOES
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH THE ACTIVITY IT
DEVELOPS. STILL THINK THE SEVERE THREAT IS PRETTY LOW...BUT WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPS...YET. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER DOES HAVE ME WORRIED CURRENT HIGHS MAY BE RUNNING A LITTLE
WARM...BUT WARM NOSE WITH A TEMP OF 22C WAS SITUATED DOWN AT 900
MB ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING THIS MORNING. MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE
SFC WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
MIXING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WINDS PRESENT TO GET THE BOUNDARY
LAYER UP TO THIS DEPTH...SO LEFT HIGHS FOR TODAY ALONE...JUST
SLOWED DOWN HOW QUICKLY WE GET THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

TIMING OF CONVECTION FOR PRIMARILY THIS MORNING...AND THEN TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT SWINGS EAST...TO EASTERN MN LATE.

LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET...MAXIMUM SURGE
OF H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.  LATEST HRRR SHOWS
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF BANDS OF ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHEAST IS NARROW
MOISTURE PLUME.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...AS THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST EXITING COLORADO REGION
NOW...BEHIND THE INITIAL ONE.  DID MOVE POPS EAST TO THE MN/WI
BORDER THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFTED THEM TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FUNCTION OF CLOUD
COVER.  VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST SOME WARMER MID LEVEL AIR LIFTING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE.  THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAP THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND THIN THE CLOUD COVER
SOME.  DID A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED AND OFFICIAL FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY.   SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AGAIN SOME 35 MPH WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA.

THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AMPLE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDER THREAT
OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK.  SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE MN/WI BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SAT.  DID SOME TIME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...BUT GOING
FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MODELS ARE IN FINE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH A DECENT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPLYING A SURGE OF 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS AND 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A 3 HOUR WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL
/80-100 PERCENT/ POPS ON SATURDAY MORNING /MN/ INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON /WI/. PROGGED ELEVATED INSTABILITY /BEST LIFTED INDICES/
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY /MAINLY UP TO 18Z/. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAINFALL EVENT...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH NEARLY STEADY TO SLIGHTLY FALLING DAYTIME
TEMPS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...SEMI ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE WELL INTO THE
70S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS FEATURE THE AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTS LIFTING INTO THE
AREA IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS
ON THURSDAY EVE/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THAT TIMING COULD SHIFT A BIT WITH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

AREA OF SHRA WILL LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEFLY
IMPACTING AXN/STC. MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL COME IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT BEFORE THAT COMES IN...THE HRRR DOES SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PREFRONTAL SHRA/TSRA IN THE AXN/RWF AREA
BETWEEN 2 AND 5Z. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWED LEAD OF GUIDANCE IN SLOWING
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS TONIGHT BY A
FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO TEMPERED WINDS SLIGHTLY TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED MIXING. ALSO SLOWED VEERING OF WINDS TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROJECTION. FOR
CIGS...HAVE KEPT CIGS NO WORSE THAN MVFR...BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WITH THE RAIN MOVING THROUGH.

KMSP...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES THROUGH
19Z...BUT MAIN PRECIP WILL BE COMING SAT MORNING. STRONG AGREEMENT
AMONGST HI-RES REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WITH RAIN MOVING IN TO THE
FIELD AFTER 12Z. THEY ARE LIKELY A LITTLE SLOW...BUT BY ONLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CIGS ABOVE 017...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING WHERE CIGS BETWEEN 010
AND 015 WILL BE POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
.SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
.MON...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
.TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 1142 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS
OF THIS WRITING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. THUS...WIND SHIFTS WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT CLOUD BANK FOUND AHEAD AND ALONG THE MAIN
UPPER FRONT. THIS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. EMBEDDED SHOWERS HAVE DWINDLED SOME BUT
SAF AND LVS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME EFFECT. GUP AND FMN WILL SEE A
SHARP CLEARING TRENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER FRONT
EDGES EASTWARD. THIS IS VERIFIED USING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
FAST MOVING STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST.
WILL MONITOR ROW AND TCC CLOSELY. MTN TOP OBSCD WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1023 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE 1ST PERIOD MAX TEMPS BY AN AVERAGE 5
DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A
TAOS TO ALBUQUERQUE TO MAGDALENA LINE. ALSO INCREASED 1ST PERIOD
SKY COVER CENTRAL AND WEST GIVEN THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

11

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013...
COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS OR SO. STRONG
WINDS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING LIKELY.

BUT FIRST...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED NORTHWARD OVER
THE LAST 18 HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS QPF WAS NOT
HANDLED WELL BY MODELS AT ALL.  THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ON WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSPIRE TODAY ACROSS NM.  SEEMS LIKE
THE GFS AND THE HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON THE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST...SO HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH A BLEND OF THOSE TWO MODELS FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE N/NW.
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS WELL. OTHERWISE... MAIN CONCERN WITH
PRECIP FOR TODAY IS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. COULD SEE SOME
STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.

ADDITIONALLY...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH...BUT A 999MB
SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NE NM. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A LOW END WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS AROUND THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  CONSIDERED ADDING UNION COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS.

AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS FROM WEST TO EAST...MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO PLUMMET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY. HARD FREEZES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MANY NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES...AS WELL
AS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NEAR GALLUP AND GRANTS. HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY...ZONES 501 AND 517...WHERE LOW TEMPS BTW
29 AND 33 APPEAR LIKELY. OTHER AREAS WILL BE TEETERING CLOSE TO
THE FREEZING MARK AS WELL. HAVE OPTED TO GO JUST ABOVE FREEZING
FOR SANTA FE...DUE TO A DECENT DRAINAGE WIND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT....AS WELL AS RATON AND LAS VEGAS...WHERE NW WINDS MAY HELP
KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORIARTY WILL ALSO BE CLOSE.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE SOME RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL PRECIP.  OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE STATE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. GFS REMAINS MUCH FASTER WITH THE
SYSTEM PASSAGE...AS THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND KEEPS IT THERE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THUS...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT INCREASING WINDS WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EAST APPEAR POSSIBLE.

34

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY USHERING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS WILL BE NOTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CREATE LOWER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RH VALUES TODAY...WHILE VENTILATION WILL BE MOSTLY
EXCELLENT...ALTHOUGH LOWERING IN THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH THE
CHILLIEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZE...SUCH AS
FARMINGTON AND ESPANOLA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.

MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROJECTED FOR SATURDAY AS THE
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT STAYS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
VENTILATION WILL TAKE QUITE A HIT SATURDAY DUE TO POST COLD FRONTAL
INVERSION EFFECTS. LOTS OF POOR RATINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON
SATURDAY FOR THE WEST. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AND ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL FORM QUITE NICELY ALONG THE
MIDSLOPES.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS MIXING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT BRUSH THIS AREA.

MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS BRINGS A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA SATURDAY...FINALLY LIFTING
THE TROUGH AWAY FROM NEW MEXICO SUNDAY. WHAT WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT
ON IS THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER. DURING THIS TIME THERE MAY BE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-517.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ515-527>529.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 1023 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE 1ST PERIOD MAX TEMPS BY AN AVERAGE 5
DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A
TAOS TO ALBUQUERQUE TO MAGDALENA LINE. ALSO INCREASED 1ST PERIOD
SKY COVER CENTRAL AND WEST GIVEN THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...547 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE STATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS
TO 4O OR 45 KTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND RATON
RIDGE...JOHNSON MESA. ALSO WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER. VFR CONDITIONS NEXT
24 HOURS EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE EAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z AND BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN SOME BLOWING
DUST IN THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013...
COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS OR SO. STRONG
WINDS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING LIKELY.

BUT FIRST...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED NORTHWARD OVER
THE LAST 18 HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...AND THIS QPF WAS NOT
HANDLED WELL BY MODELS AT ALL.  THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ON WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSPIRE TODAY ACROSS NM.  SEEMS LIKE
THE GFS AND THE HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON THE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST...SO HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH A BLEND OF THOSE TWO MODELS FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE N/NW.
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS WELL. OTHERWISE... MAIN CONCERN WITH
PRECIP FOR TODAY IS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. COULD SEE SOME
STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.

ADDITIONALLY...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH...BUT A 999MB
SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NE NM. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A LOW END WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS AROUND THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  CONSIDERED ADDING UNION COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS.

AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS FROM WEST TO EAST...MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO PLUMMET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY. HARD FREEZES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MANY NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES...AS WELL
AS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NEAR GALLUP AND GRANTS. HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY...ZONES 501 AND 517...WHERE LOW TEMPS BTW
29 AND 33 APPEAR LIKELY. OTHER AREAS WILL BE TEETERING CLOSE TO
THE FREEZING MARK AS WELL. HAVE OPTED TO GO JUST ABOVE FREEZING
FOR SANTA FE...DUE TO A DECENT DRAINAGE WIND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT....AS WELL AS RATON AND LAS VEGAS...WHERE NW WINDS MAY HELP
KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. MORIARTY WILL ALSO BE CLOSE.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE SOME RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL PRECIP.  OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE STATE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. GFS REMAINS MUCH FASTER WITH THE
SYSTEM PASSAGE...AS THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND KEEPS IT THERE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THUS...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...BUT INCREASING WINDS WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EAST APPEAR POSSIBLE.

34

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY USHERING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SPOTTY WETTING RAINS WILL BE NOTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CREATE LOWER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RH VALUES TODAY...WHILE VENTILATION WILL BE MOSTLY
EXCELLENT...ALTHOUGH LOWERING IN THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH THE
CHILLIEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZE...SUCH AS
FARMINGTON AND ESPANOLA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.

MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROJECTED FOR SATURDAY AS THE
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT STAYS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
VENTILATION WILL TAKE QUITE A HIT SATURDAY DUE TO POST COLD FRONTAL
INVERSION EFFECTS. LOTS OF POOR RATINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON
SATURDAY FOR THE WEST. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AND ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL FORM QUITE NICELY ALONG THE
MIDSLOPES.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS MIXING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT BRUSH THIS AREA.

MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS BRINGS A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA SATURDAY...FINALLY LIFTING
THE TROUGH AWAY FROM NEW MEXICO SUNDAY. WHAT WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT
ON IS THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER. DURING THIS TIME THERE MAY BE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-517.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ515-527>529.

&&

$$

11






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 314 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

THE CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. EVERYTHING YOU
HAVE READ IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS (SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS) IS STILL VALID AND THE FORECAST IS UNFOLDING
ACCORDING TO PLAN. THE 12Z NAM IS A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THE MAIN
BAND OF RAIN TONIGHT...AND THE RAP IS ALSO WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW THE MOST CONSISTENT ECMWF (WHICH MOSTLY IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS AND GEM). THERE WILL BE AREAS OF SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE RAINFALL MOVES
INTO THE REGION (MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT). STILL LOOKING LIKE AROUND
AN INCH OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AS THE UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

SUNDAY-MONDAY...FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. 12Z MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
STRONGER UPPER WAVES DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD ON TUESDAY...ECMWF HINTS AT A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH
THE FLOW PAINTING SOME PCPN. BUT THIS SEEMS NEW AND IS CONTRARY TO
OTHER GUIDANCE SO WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10 TO
15C RANGE POINT TO A WARM START TO THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERN SPOTS
MAXING OUT IN THE 70S.

ECMWF ALSO APPEARS TO BE PLACING PCPN A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE OUR DRY FCST THROUGH MIDWEEK.  SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT SHOULD
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE CWA BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...WITH INDICATIONS OF
CAPE SUITABLE FOR SOME THUNDER...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL EAST.  THE MILD TEMPS OF THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE GONE BY FRIDAY...AS COLDER IS DRAWN DOWN
FROM CANADA LEE OF THE TROUGH...LEAVING THE MERCURY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSLATING TO MAINLY MVFR CIGS AT OUR TAF
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
TROUGH OVER THE SPINE OF THE REGION WILL MOVE QUITE SLOWLY THE NEXT
18 HOURS KEEPING WIND DIRECTION ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FOR EACH SITE
DURING THIS PERIOD.  PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING THEN CHANGE (WITH CONCURRENT CIG LOWERING TO IFR) TO
MORE OF A STEADY LIGHT (AND BRIEFLY MODERATE) RAIN LATE
EVENING...OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...WJB





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 1224 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HINGE LARGELY ON A COLD
FRONT SET TO MOVE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z TOMORROW. THIS FRONT
WILL FIRST IMPACT NW TAF SITES IN THE 00Z TO 04Z TIMEFRAME...THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO KOKC/KOUN BY AROUND 15Z FRIDAY. SHRA/TSRA WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR HEAVIER STORMS. A
STOUT WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SHIFTING FROM SW
TO NW AND EVENTUALLY NE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO
NRN/WRN TAF SITES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS MOISTURE
RETURNS AT ALL LEVELS. HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO DEW
POINT/HUMIDITY FORECASTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MIGHT BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOW...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...IT SEEMS PREMATURE TO MAKE UPWARD CHANGES AT THIS
POINT. WILL REEVALUATE IN EARLY AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...THEN
INCREASE RAPIDLY ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
AND LARGER-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE ON THIS POINT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013/

AVIATION...
27/12Z TAFS...VFR AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED A MAJORITY OF
FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA
EXPECTED NEAR/BEHIND COLD FRONT. WE WILL KEEP TIMING CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED OVER
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  78  57  79 /  40  80  40   0
HOBART OK         68  79  55  79 /  80  70  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  81  61  80 /  30  80  50  10
GAGE OK           60  77  47  79 /  80  30  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  76  53  79 /  60  80  10   0
DURANT OK         70  86  65  83 /  10  70  80  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/23




FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS
SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A FEW SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INTO FAR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A MID-DECK IS JUST
BRUSHING PAST N-C WISCONSIN.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.  AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST.  MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR OVER
IOWA AND MISSOURI WILL PUSH THE CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
SET UP A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  UNLIKE THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS...A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE...SO
WILL NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT FOG FORMATION.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH MINS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE FINALLY PUSHES THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST.  MODELS
POINT TOWARD SHOWERS ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  THE FRONT WILL HAVE PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES...AND PLENTY
OF FORCING ALOFT IN THE FORM OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND DPVA...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF TO NEARLY 100 PCT.  THE ONLY
THING LACK IS INSTABILITY SINCE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 5
AND 6 C/KM AND 850-700MB THETAE LAPSE RATES ARE POSITIVE.  MODIFYING
A FEW SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG...SO AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE SEEMS POSSIBLE.  SLOWED DOWN THE PRECIP ACROSS THE
EAST A BIT AS MOST MODELS KEEP THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE DRY
THROUGH 00Z.  HIGHS REACHING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...THEN
COOLING AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ARRIVES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

TROF LIFTS OUT OF CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY WITH LESS
AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER CONUS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
THROUGH WED...BRUNT OF SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY TO PASS NORTH AND
WEST OF CWA. TAIL END OF SFC FRONT TO PASS THROUGH TUE/WED
PERIOD...THOUGH MOISTURE LIMITED SO EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY.
RATHER MILD PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS IN THE
50S.

BY THU...SEE MORE AMPLIFICATION WITH TROF IN THE WEST...THOUGH
PATTERN STILL PROGRESSIVE. MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OUT OF
GULF AHEAD OF SYSTEM...WITH SFC WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR
NEAR STATE ON THU. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR WED/THU...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. COLD FRONT TO APPROACH LATER FRI.

IN NEAR TERM...WILL CONTINUE WITH PROGRESSING FRONT THROUGH REGION
SAT EVENING...ENDING PCPN ALONG LAKESHORE BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FOR MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES SUN
TO RUN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

ONLY SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS ALONG SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
THROUGH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...LLWS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. CLOUDS THICKEN SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY SOUTH SURFACE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1211 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...A DEEP
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PUSHING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TOW SYSTEM WAS DRAWING AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. ALSO OF NOW WAS
SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF KS INTO NEB. INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305K SURFACE PER
THE RAP WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED ACCAS/THUNDER IN A BAND FROM
EASTERN SD INTO EASTERN NEB. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ALMOST CLOSER TO WHAT WE CAN TYPICALLY
EXPECT FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. READINGS AROUND THE
AREA RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG AN NORTH OF I-94...TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHWEST
MN THROUGH CENTRAL NEB. RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
MN AND NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL AID IN ADVECTING/MIXING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. NAM SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 21-24C RANGE
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S...WHICH IS NEARLY 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT
AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED SHRA/TS WEST OF US THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS COULD OFFSET WARMING SOME ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH
RECORD HIGHS. THE RECORD FOR ROCHESTER AND LA CROSSE IS 86 SET IN
1987 AND 1943 RESPECTIVELY.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
SOUTH FLOW TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINING JUST
WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RAIN-FREE AS A RESULT SINCE MOST OF THE SHRA/TS ACTIVITY LOOKS
MAINLY POST-FRONTAL AND TIED TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. APPEARS ABOUT A 50 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE SEEN WITH THE FRONTAL AND MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES/CAPE SEEMS
MINIMAL...CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE TIED MORE TO DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET/STRONG 850-700MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COUPLED WITH NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S
AROUND THE NOON HOUR WITH NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLAN ON SHOWER CHANCES
EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 40S.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THEN
SLOWLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVERHEAD AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS TIGHT
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AND LIMITS THE MIXING.
AS THIS HAPPENS HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE LOOK TO INCREASE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET CREATING A WIND
SHEAR POTENTIAL AT BOTH SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIXING
SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER
ALLOWING THE WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE TO DECREASE AND DROPPED THE
WIND SHEAR BY 13Z AT BOTH SITES. GOOD FORCING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS. CURRENT
TIMING SHOULD BRING THESE SHOWERS INTO KRST BY MID MORNING WITH
THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OCCURRING JUST PAST THE VALID
TIME OF THE TAF. SHOWERS SHOULD GET TO KLSE VERY NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD SO FOR NOW HAVE NOT INCLUDED THESE IN THE FORECAST.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO INITIALLY START VFR WITH THE SHOWERS BUT QUICKLY
GO DOWN TO MVFR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS AT KRST AROUND THE TIME OF THE FRONT PASSAGE.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING
THERE COULD BE RUMBLE OR TWO HEARD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 1153 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.  LESS FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT TIMING BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS. ONLY A SMALL CHANCE
FOR THUNDER...SO WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS. THE RAIN WILL HIT
MADISON LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MILWAUKEE EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. PLAN ON ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WITH 0.2 TO 0.4 INCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013/

UPDATE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO FOG
BURNING OFF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF NEAR 80F OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKE IS ON TARGET FOR TODAY.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...COMING LATER THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

250 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND THEN INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE 850/700/500 MB LAYERS REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN 850 MB
RH INCREASES IN AREAS WEST OF MADISON.  THE 850 MB/700 SOUTH JET MAX
REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH 850 MB WINDS DO
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANCE IN 850/700 MB TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE VERY SHORT TERM WITH FOG. THE LAKE BREEZE HAD
BROUGHT SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT THE LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD LONG WAVE
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO COME TO
SATURATION AND HAVE COOLED...WHICH IS HELPING THE FOG TO BECOME MORE
DENSE JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE. THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO
SHOW ALL OF THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND THE NEXT TIER INLAND TO
DEVELOP LOW VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL THEREFOR BE EXPANDED SOUTH. HOWEVER VISIBILITIES
WERE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4 AND 3 MILES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY.  THEREFORE THE DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY
TO BE WIDESPREAD.

THE FOG POTENTIAL IS LESS IN THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING BY WELL TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY QUICK INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GETTING AS HIGH AS 1.80 INCHES ON THE LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND AMPLE
FRONTOGENETIC LIFT...MAINTAINED HIGH POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH INSTABILITY IN SOUNDINGS...SO ONLY WENT
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DAY WILL BE TIMING THE
PRECIP...WITH MODELS STILL DIFFERING BY A COUPLE HOURS.
OVERALL...SHOULD NOT BE A VERY LONG EVENT...WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP
LIKELY MOVING THROUGH IN A FEW HOURS. SINCE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY...SHOULD BE A GOOD WINDOW TO WARM THINGS UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 925 MB TEMPS WILL APPROACH OR REACH 20C...SO
UPPER 70S STILL SEEM REASONABLE...WITH A FEW SPOTS PROBABLY HITTING
80.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND THEN GENERALLY HOLD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOW POPS THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH
HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR TO EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL
LIKELY SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THEN THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER MAINLY
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LIFR FOG ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.  SOME IFR/LIFR IN LOW
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.  STILL SOME MOISTURE BELOW
THE INVERSION 4 THSD FT TO GENERATE FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.  SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING.  LESS FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MARINE...

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN DEVELOPING
SOUTHEAST FLOW.  DEW POINTS MOVING ACROSS THE THE LAKE ARE NOT THAT
HIGH.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD GENERATE HIGH WAVES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 1241 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

INFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAINLY ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AND
LOCATIONS WESTWARD. PRECIP TYPE HAS BEEN RAIN SO FAR ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CONVERSE AND CARBON COUNTIES WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE
AROUND 8000 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST PRECIP RATES. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED BY THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SCOOTS EASTWARD.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. OTHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS
MORNING IS THE AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE.
INCLUDED FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING BUT THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS LIFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE RANGE PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY UNTIL AFTER
THE FROPA.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY BEHIND THE FROPA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST WY. THE GFS SHOWS
WESTERLY WINDS TO 50 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHEREAS THE NAM IS
WEAKER AT AROUND 40 KTS. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE WINDS BUT LLVL MIXING WILL NOT BE IDEAL
SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HOWEVER...SINCE THESE AREAS HAVE
SEEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY THIS FALL SEASON...DID NOT ISSUE
ANY FREEZING HEADLINES THERE. TEMPS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 36 AS THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONVERSE COUNTY MAY GET CLOSE
TO A FROST ADVISORY WITH WEAKER WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STILL GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY IN
SOUTHEAST WY WITH 700MB WINDS AT 35-40 KTS AND GOOD MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL PERIODICALLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RIDE A 130+ KNOT JET STREAK NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25. SO...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. H7 TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C WILL YIELD UPPER 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND 70S/LOW 80S OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ONE OF THE SERIES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL
TRACK NORTH OF THE CWFA LATE MONDAY...DRAGGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THROUGH. H7 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A FEW DEGREES IN WEAK LLVL CAA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL YIELD A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY MID 60S OVR
CARBON/ALBANY COUNTIES AND 70S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...A DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE SFC TROF WILL AMPLIFY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS WELL...INCREASING LLVL SFC WINDS. H7 WIND PROGS PEAK
AT AROUND 40 KNOTS. SO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGH WIND EVENT HOWEVER
WOULD EXPECT 40 TO 50 MPH TO BE COMMON ESPECIALLY NR ARLINGTON AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
ADDITIONALLY...WARM TEMPERATURES...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND  DRY
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF WILL SWING ONTO THE WEST COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY. FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFER
SOME ON THE TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND COLDEST. GIVEN
TIMING UNCERTAINTY...DID BEGIN TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD SUSPECT THAT THIS MAY END UP BEING A BIT EARLY
AND THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL TOO FAR OUT
TO FEEL MUCH CONFIDENCE...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

A BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
AT 18Z...AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. AHEAD OF
THIS BAND...LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST IN NORTHERLY WINDS. THE
MAIN COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS ZONES AT THIS
HOUR...AND WILL TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL GUST 25 TO 30 MPH. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH FROPA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...CAUSING MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO DROP
INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH. THUS...AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST WHERE FUELS STILL SUPPORT
FIRE GROWTH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH