Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/14/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO IS CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. ALL MODELS AGREE ON INCREASING THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION WHEN THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE
REGION. CURRENT TIMING HAS THE DISTURBANCE REACHING EL PASO COUNTY
BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN TRACK WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE OBSERVED
REFLECTIVITY WITH THE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER EXTREME
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. LATEST HRRR RUN
CONTINUES TO LOOK SCARY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEING UPSLOPE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. WITH SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION...FLASH FLOODING
IS STILL POSSIBLE AT OTHER LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY ON THE THE
SOUTH FACING SLOPES. --PGW--
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. LARGE UPR
LOW WL REMAIN OVR EASTERN UT THRU TODAY AND TONIGHT...SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STREAM OF MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE OVR EASTERN CO THRU THE DAY. LITTLE CHANGES WL BE MADE O
THE ONGOING FORECAST AND WL GENERALLY HAVE LIKELY POPS OVR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING NORTH
TO NORTHEAST ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WL ALSO HELP TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN
THIS MORNING...BY AFTERNOON THE ACTIVITY WL INCREASE AND THE MODELS
KEEP WIDESPREAD PCPN FROM THE EASTERN MTS TO THE ERN CO BORDER THRU
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHWARD ACRS THE
AREA. LOOKING AT MODEL FORECAST PCPN AMOUNTS...THE WALDO CANYON BURN
SCAR GETS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PCPN LATE IN THE EVENING AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES AND THIS
TIME-FRAME STILL LOOKS OK. AS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR PCPN TODAY AND THIS EVENING
BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS ERN AREAS. THERE WL STILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVR WRN AREAS THAT COULD BE A
THREAT TO BURN SCARS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013
WILL KEEP LONG TERM DISCUSSION CONCISE DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE
CONDITIONS. PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL MESSAGE WILL BE
CONTINUED WET CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEXT
NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN UPSWING IN POP ACTIVITY
AGAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN OVER THE CWFA INTO THE WEEKEND.
A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE NOTED OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY NEXT WEEK IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY
LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
KCOS AND KPUB...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS BETWEEN AROUND 21Z AND 04Z.
ANTICIPATE MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
KALS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID
EVENING. SOME LOCAL MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER STORM MOVES
OVER THE REGION.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ072>088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PGW
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
941 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013
.UPDATE...MAJOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY AT THIS
TIME WITH BIBLICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED IN MANY AREAS IN/NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND
A QUARTER ON GPS SENSORS CERTAINLY SUPPORT LOTS MORE RAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT. 13Z HRRR RUN HAS ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
PREDICTED IN THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH 04Z SO THINGS ARE NOT LOOKING
GOOD. WILL EXTEND THE AREA OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE
ZONE 43 AND ALSO EXTEND IT IN TIME THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH LOTS
OF LOW CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOODING ONGOING IN LOTS OF SPOTS INCLUDING THE
FOOTHILLS BURN AREAS. A DIRE SITUATION WHICH WILL NOT IMPROVE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHEAST IDAHO NEXT 24
HOURS. A VERY MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND A VERY MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROBABLY SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WARM PROCESS RAINFALL OVER AND
ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...SATURATED SOILS AND
THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NECESSITATE ISSUANCING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILL ZONES 35/36 AND I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR ZONES
38..39..40 AND 41. WATCH WILL RUN FROM 18Z/TODAY TO 06Z/TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING OVER AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AT THIS HOUR. COULD SEE SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LETTING UP AROUND MID-MORNING. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ON THE PLAINS MAY BE AN ISSUE AROUND SUNRISE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT AS THOSE OBSERVED DURING
THE PAST 18 HOURS...BUT IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE FLOODING
AGAIN. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE EAST OF THE MTNS TODAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...LITTLE WARMING TODAY. WHEREAS AREAS ON THE WEST
SLOPE COULD SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY/
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER WITH ALL THE MOIST AIR AROUND...SUNSHINE
WILL HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM GENERATING T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...ON FRIDAY...AIRMASS NOT QUITE AS MOIST WITH THE
UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. THIS CAUSES THE
FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS RESULTS IN MODEST
DRYING AT MID-LEVELS...ESPLY WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE. CONSEQUENTLY
RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER...PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MORE SUNSHINE IN THESE AREAS WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGS C. EAST OF THE MTNS LITTLE WARMING
ANTICIPATED.
ON SATURDAY...DRYING PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO AN
OPEN TROUGH. TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA CAUSING WINDS
ALOFT TO GO MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL HELP DRY AIR THE PLAINS AIRMASS
AND LOWER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EAST OF THE MTNS.
TEMPERATURES ALSO RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR
NORTH...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING AND INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO TOWARDS MORNING. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND EXPECTED TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY MORE
SO UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THEREFORE THE FLOOD RISK APPEARS LOW
WITH THESE STORMS. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES COOL 3-4C EAST OF THE
MTNS...BUT LITTLE CHANGED WEST OF MTNS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE WITH ZONAL FLOW.
AVIATION...LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG PRODUCING INSTRUMENT
FLIGHT RULES AT DENVER AREA AIRPORTS NEXT 12-24 HOURS. LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AT BJC AND APA. EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 6-14KTS EXPECTED TODAY. TONIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
HYDROLOGY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILL ZONES 35 AND 36...AND THE ADJACENT
I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR ZONES 38...39...40 AND 41. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN IN THESE AREAS COUPLED WITH SATURATED SOILS COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
STILL OCCURRING AT THIS HOUR ALONG THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE COULD
PROMPT ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS DURING THE NEXT 3-5
HOURS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR COZ035-036-038>041-043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....BAKER
UPDATE/AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
158 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013
PUSHED BACK THE START TIME OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE CURRENT
TIME...SINCE HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING TO
EXPIRE. ALSO BROUGHT IN LATEST OBS DATA AS WELL AS SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. MOORE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
.TONIGHT...NEXT BATCH OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN
PUEBLO COUNTY AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT HOURLY...BUT HRRR PERFORMANCE
HAS NOT BEEN STELLAR TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND THERE IS A CONSENSUS OF
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING. OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION....SOME STORMS HAVE
FINALLY DEVELOPED AS WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY HIGH SCATTERED POPS
DURING THE NIGHT. SUSPECT THE DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING..WHICH WILL DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
.THURSDAY...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES. DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST WILL STRENGTHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS...INCREASING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE REGION. THE PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER MOISTURE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION EAST OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THURSDAY..ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SUSPECT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO COLORADO. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR THE
WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS. THERE WAS SOME MINOR
FLOODING OVER WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR TODAY AND THE STORMS ON
THURSDAY COULD BE STRONGER. FURTHER WEST...ANTICIPATE MORE COVERAGE
OF STORMS THAN WEDNESDAY AS THE AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. --PGW--
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY WET
PERIOD AS WEAKENING UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN UTAH IS SLOWLY KICKED
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY DROPPING OUT
OF WESTERN BC AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS ENHANCES
MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ALONG WITH INCREASED UVV FROM ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND THE ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...WILL SUPPORT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO PEG EASTERN COLORADO AND
IN PARTICULAR THE PIKES PEAK REGION...WHERE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED...FOR HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HPC
DAY 2 QPF TOTAL INDICATING 1-2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
WITH A BULLSEYE OF 1.76 INCHES ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND 1.96
INCHES OVER KIOWA COUNTY. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS
INTACT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FORECAST BURN SCARS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEAK WESTERLY WITH
MONSOONAL PLUME DECREASING THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE NORTHERN TIER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL A
THREAT DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT. PASSING NORTHERN TIER
SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE
PAC NW COAST...KEEPING MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO
GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. LATEST EC INDICATES ANOTHER
POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
KCOS AND KPUB...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR TOMORROW AFTN AND EVE. CURRENT
CONVECTION IS TRACKING TO THE N-NW BUT IS STARTING TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.
KALS...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
FROM THE MOTION OF THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY...ANOTHER VORTMAX IS
LIKELY LOCATED OVER PUEBLO COUNTY. THIS ONE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS WELL DEFINED AS THIS MORNINGS VORT MAX. NONETHELESS...WE WILL
CAREFULLY BE WATCHING FOR INCREASING ECHOES OVER THE WALDO BURN
SCAR. HRRR HAS BEEN TRYING TO DISSIPATE THIS AREA OF RAIN FOR THE
LAST FEW RUNS AND IT HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. THE GROUND IS SATURATED
OVER THE BURN SCAR AND IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS. /HODANISH
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ081-084-085.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1149 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING TO
EXPIRE. ALSO BROUGHT IN LATEST OBS DATA AS WELL AS SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. MOORE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
.TONIGHT...NEXT BATCH OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN
PUEBLO COUNTY AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT HOURLY...BUT HRRR PERFORMANCE
HAS NOT BEEN STELLAR TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH
THE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND THERE IS A CONSENSUS OF
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING. OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION....SOME STORMS HAVE
FINALLY DEVELOPED AS WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY HIGH SCATTERED POPS
DURING THE NIGHT. SUSPECT THE DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING..WHICH WILL DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
.THURSDAY...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES. DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST WILL STRENGTHEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS...INCREASING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE REGION. THE PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER MOISTURE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION EAST OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THURSDAY..ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SUSPECT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO COLORADO. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY FOR THE
WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS. THERE WAS SOME MINOR
FLOODING OVER WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR TODAY AND THE STORMS ON
THURSDAY COULD BE STRONGER. FURTHER WEST...ANTICIPATE MORE COVERAGE
OF STORMS THAN WEDNESDAY AS THE AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. --PGW--
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY WET
PERIOD AS WEAKENING UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN UTAH IS SLOWLY KICKED
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY DROPPING OUT
OF WESTERN BC AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS ENHANCES
MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ALONG WITH INCREASED UVV FROM ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND THE ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...WILL SUPPORT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO PEG EASTERN COLORADO AND
IN PARTICULAR THE PIKES PEAK REGION...WHERE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED...FOR HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HPC
DAY 2 QPF TOTAL INDICATING 1-2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
WITH A BULLSEYE OF 1.76 INCHES ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND 1.96
INCHES OVER KIOWA COUNTY. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS
INTACT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH AN
INCREASED CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FORECAST BURN SCARS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEAK WESTERLY WITH
MONSOONAL PLUME DECREASING THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE NORTHERN TIER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL A
THREAT DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT. PASSING NORTHERN TIER
SYSTEM SENDS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE
PAC NW COAST...KEEPING MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO
GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. LATEST EC INDICATES ANOTHER
POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
KCOS AND KPUB...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR TOMORROW AFTN AND EVE. CURRENT
CONVECTION IS TRACKING TO THE N-NW BUT IS STARTING TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.
KALS...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
FROM THE MOTION OF THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY...ANOTHER VORTMAX IS
LIKELY LOCATED OVER PUEBLO COUNTY. THIS ONE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS WELL DEFINED AS THIS MORNINGS VORT MAX. NONETHELESS...WE WILL
CAREFULLY BE WATCHING FOR INCREASING ECHOES OVER THE WALDO BURN
SCAR. HRRR HAS BEEN TRYING TO DISSIPATE THIS AREA OF RAIN FOR THE
LAST FEW RUNS AND IT HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. THE GROUND IS SATURATED
OVER THE BURN SCAR AND IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS. /HODANISH
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ081-084-085.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1042 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION APPARENT IN 00Z/THU KGJT SOUNDING COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
COOLING LIKELY TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK DURING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...CANCELED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLAT TOPS AND GORE
RANGE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS DRY AIR RESIDES ABOVE 500MB OR
ABOUT 18K FEET. BELOW THAT LEVEL...RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXISTS. THE
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT. THE LAST WAVE IS NOW CAUSING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70. THE STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SLOW MOVERS
ALLOWING HEAVY RAIN TO FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...THUS
SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY
OF CONVECTION AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER AZ AND WRN UT
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE DRY SLOT THAT HAS FORMED THIS AFTN. HRRR AND
RAP BOTH INDICATING NOT MUCH DEVELOPMENT IN THE 4 CORNERS REGION
EVEN WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASING TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL KEEP ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
FORECAST THOUGH AS ANY WEAK WAVE MAY ALLOW SOME PRECIP TO KICK
OFF. IN THAT REGARD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
9PM THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT DRYING TO CONTINUE THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE.
BY TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST TO THE FRONT RANGE. A
DOWNTICK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED THOUGH AGAIN...RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW SOME SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM.
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING UP
AFTER THE LAST FEW MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER ERN NV/WRN UT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PROPAGATE NORTH FRIDAY WITH THE
REMAINING SOUTH END OF THIS TROUGH FLATTENING OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MIDRANGE MODELS AGREE ON 580 DM HEIGHT CONTOUR
DIMINISHING IN SIZE SATURDAY AS IT MOVES NORTH...DECREASING THE
FORCING NEEDED FOR STRATIFORM RAIN. AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL
REMAINS...HINTING AT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND BUT BEING MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHING EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
TO THE NORTH AND EAST...LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM BEING WIDESPREAD EVEN WITH PWATS
STILL BETWEEN 0.8 AND 1.0 INCH.
SLIGHT DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BY SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THE LOCATION OF REMAINING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN DUE TO
TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING
THE REMAINING ENERGY EASTWARD. THIS PACIFIC NW FEATURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS PROGGED TO TURN THE FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST DECREASING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERCAST SKIES ALL DAY LONG
SHOULD CEASE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW A CHANGE TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME.
COUPLE DIFFERENT RESULTS MIDWEEK ON TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM THIS
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO WESTERN US. DEPENDING ON THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A
MODERATE COLD FRONT MAY BE THE OVERRIDING FEATURE (12Z GFS
SOLUTION) OR THE VERY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL BE AFFECTED
BY A SMALLER SWATH OF TROUGHINESS (00Z ECMWF SOLUTION) WHILE MOST
OF THE CWA REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. THE LATTER
SOLUTION IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AND POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. DESPITE
SHOWER ACTIVITY...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THROUGH 18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 18Z AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY BEFORE DECREASING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL FACE A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORM
CELLS MOVING OVERHEAD POSSIBLY RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
113 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN AUTUMN AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND THE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH 523 HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 8
PM THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.
SEVERAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE RESULTED IN A BUILD-UP OF
INSTABILITY. THE LATEST SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA AS OF NOON. THE SPECIAL
16Z ALB SOUNDING STILL REVEALED A WEAK CAP AROUND 900 MB...BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND HAS
LIKELY ALREADY DONE SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
TIED TO THE NEXT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A
CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS. AN UPPER JET STEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING S/SE FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH HELP ENHANCE THE RAINFALL...AND THE SVR THREAT TODAY
ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE ANTICYCLONIC ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 250 HPA 100-110+ KT JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN
AND ERN NY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPTS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPT IN THE 60S TO
EVEN SOME L70S. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP
TODAY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 6.5 C/KM/...AS THE REMNANT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER HAS SHIFTED DOWNSTREAM. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 25-40 KTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS MAY FORM INTO A COUPLE OF
LINES. THE BEST CHC OF A SUPERCELL MAY BE ACROSS THE SRN EXTREME
WHEN THE 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASE TO 40 KTS AND THE SBCAPE VALUES MAY
REACH 2000 J/KG. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS...BUT WITH TALLER UPDRAFTS SOME LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE. THE BEST 850-700 HPA THETA-E LAPSE RATES IMPACT
LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
NIGHTFALL.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND LOCAL HIRES WRF SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM
TROUGH...MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN
PLACE.
THE SECONDARY ISSUE TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-SEPT. THE LATEST GEFS SUGGEST PWATS ARE
1 TO ALMOST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE ACTUAL PWATS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.33-1.80" RANGE WITH SOME POCKETS CLOSE
TO 2.00" IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THE BEST H850 THETA-E
RIDGE SETS UP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT...AND THE ERN
CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST /330-335 K RANGE/. SOME TRAINING MAY
OCCUR WITH THE LINES OF CONVECTION. AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE ENOUGH
FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION GETS INTO MORE
DETAILS ON THE RAINFALL BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL GIVE A MAJOR BOOT
TO THE MUGGY AND STICKY WEATHER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL A MID
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MAY MIGRATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE STEADY
RAINFALL GOING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF EVEN HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
MAY OCCUR FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
SHRIVEL UP SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AS THE INSTABILITY WANES
CONSIDERABLY. DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL BE SWEEPING INTO THE NRN
ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U40S OVER
THE SRN DACKS TO U50S AND L60S TO THE CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND NW CT.
FRIDAY...QUITE A CONTRAST IN AIR MASSES...AND TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER SRN QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OFF
SOME ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND NRN ZONES. IT WILL BE BRISK AND
CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
IN THE FALL LIKE AIR MASS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER THE
SRN DACKS...SOME OF THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS...AND 60S
TO A FEW L70S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CEASE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THE CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH A
DECENT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP. H850
TEMPS LOWER TO +1 TO +4C. NOT EXPECTING FROST ON THIS NIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE U30S TO M40S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES
DOWN STREAM OVER SE QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WINDS WILL
BE LESS ON SATURDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MAINLY MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NY AND PA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. NEAR
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
30S TO L40S. SOME AREAS OF FROST MAY MATERIALIZE OVER THE SRN
DACKS REGION. A BRIEF MENTION WILL BE PLACED IN THE HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND PASS THROUGH OUR FA BY MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. FOR MONDAY EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON TUESDAY EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH
TO MVFR/IFR WITH HEAVIER PCPN. MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS WELL AS STEADY SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. IFR FOG WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP AT KGFL AND KPSF LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 13Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR
CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME WITH MORE WET WEATHER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AN AUTUMNAL AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...AND THE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER ONLY TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT IN THE MUGGY AIR
MASS THIS AFTERNOON...AND RECOVER TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. EXPECT MINIMUM
RH VALUES TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
TODAY...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT. EXPECT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER PREFRONTAL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE...URBAN...AND LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN FALLING
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS EVEN A THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FFG VALUES REMAIN HIGH TODAY. THE 1-HR ZONAL
FFG VALUES ARE IN THE 1.7-2.4 INCH RANGE...AND THE 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES RANGE FROM 2.1-3.1 INCHES.
INTO TONIGHT...THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA MAY RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES. OVERALL...MAINLY MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE...URBAN...AND LOW LYING AREAS IS EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES WILL
OCCUR ON MAIN STEM RIVERS...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NERFC. FLOWS REMAIN AT NORMAL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS HEADING INTO MID SEPTEMBER.
THE UPPER LOW MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
100 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN AUTUMN AIR MASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND THE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH 523 HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 8
PM THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.
SEVERAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE RESULTED IN A BUILD-UP OF
INSTABILITY. THE LATEST SPC RAP MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA AS OF NOON. THE SPECIAL
16Z ALB SOUNDING STILL REVEALED A WEAK CAP AROUND 900 MB...BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND HAS
LIKELY ALREADY DONE SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
TIED TO THE NEXT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A
CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS. AN UPPER JET STEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING S/SE FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH HELP ENHANCE THE RAINFALL...AND THE SVR THREAT TODAY
ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE ANTICYCLONIC ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 250 HPA 100-110+ KT JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN
AND ERN NY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPTS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPT IN THE 60S TO
EVEN SOME L70S. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP
TODAY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 6.5 C/KM/...AS THE REMNANT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER HAS SHIFTED DOWNSTREAM. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 25-40 KTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS MAY FORM INTO A COUPLE OF
LINES. THE BEST CHC OF A SUPERCELL MAY BE ACROSS THE SRN EXTREME
WHEN THE 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASE TO 40 KTS AND THE SBCAPE VALUES MAY
REACH 2000 J/KG. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS...BUT WITH TALLER UPDRAFTS SOME LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE. THE BEST 850-700 HPA THETA-E LAPSE RATES IMPACT
LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
NIGHTFALL.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND LOCAL HIRES WRF SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM
TROUGH...MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN
PLACE.
THE SECONDARY ISSUE TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-SEPT. THE LATEST GEFS SUGGEST PWATS ARE
1 TO ALMOST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE ACTUAL PWATS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.33-1.80" RANGE WITH SOME POCKETS CLOSE
TO 2.00" IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THE BEST H850 THETA-E
RIDGE SETS UP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT...AND THE ERN
CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST /330-335 K RANGE/. SOME TRAINING MAY
OCCUR WITH THE LINES OF CONVECTION. AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE ENOUGH
FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION GETS INTO MORE
DETAILS ON THE RAINFALL BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL GIVE A MAJOR BOOT
TO THE MUGGY AND STICKY WEATHER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL A MID
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MAY MIGRATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE STEADY
RAINFALL GOING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF EVEN HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
MAY OCCUR FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
SHRIVEL UP SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AS THE INSTABILITY WANES
CONSIDERABLY. DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL BE SWEEPING INTO THE NRN
ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U40S OVER
THE SRN DACKS TO U50S AND L60S TO THE CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND NW CT.
FRIDAY...QUITE A CONTRAST IN AIR MASSES...AND TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER SRN QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OFF
SOME ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND NRN ZONES. IT WILL BE BRISK AND
CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
IN THE FALL LIKE AIR MASS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER THE
SRN DACKS...SOME OF THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS...AND 60S
TO A FEW L70S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CEASE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THE CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH A
DECENT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP. H850
TEMPS LOWER TO +1 TO +4C. NOT EXPECTING FROST ON THIS NIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE U30S TO M40S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES
DOWN STREAM OVER SE QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WINDS WILL
BE LESS ON SATURDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MAINLY MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NY AND PA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. NEAR
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
30S TO L40S. SOME AREAS OF FROST MAY MATERIALIZE OVER THE SRN
DACKS REGION. A BRIEF MENTION WILL BE PLACED IN THE HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND PASS THROUGH OUR FA BY MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. FOR MONDAY EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON TUESDAY EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM AROUND LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO MVFR/IFR WITH HEAVIER PCPN. LATER TONIGHT
THE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR
AT MOST SITES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY AND THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME WITH MORE WET WEATHER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AN AUTUMNAL AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...AND THE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER ONLY TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT IN THE MUGGY AIR
MASS THIS AFTERNOON...AND RECOVER TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. EXPECT MINIMUM
RH VALUES TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
TODAY...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT. EXPECT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER PREFRONTAL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE...URBAN...AND LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN FALLING
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS EVEN A THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FFG VALUES REMAIN HIGH TODAY. THE 1-HR ZONAL
FFG VALUES ARE IN THE 1.7-2.4 INCH RANGE...AND THE 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES RANGE FROM 2.1-3.1 INCHES.
INTO TONIGHT...THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA MAY RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES. OVERALL...MAINLY MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE...URBAN...AND LOW LYING AREAS IS EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES WILL
OCCUR ON MAIN STEM RIVERS...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NERFC. FLOWS REMAIN AT NORMAL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS HEADING INTO MID SEPTEMBER.
THE UPPER LOW MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1036 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN AUTUMN AIR MASS
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND THE COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1036 AM EDT...LATEST KENX RADAR SHOWS TWO SMALL LINES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ONE ACROSS SRN VT/NW MASS AND THE
OTHER ACROSS DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. A BRIEF BURSTS OF RAIN
AND SOME LTG IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT HOUR...BUT NO STRONG/SVR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED JUST
YET.
CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN FOR SOME SUN ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS REMAINS UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY.
THE FCST AREA WILL ENDURE ONE MORE HUMID DAY...BEFORE BIG CHANGES
ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT...AND A SFC TROUGH IN
ADVANCE OF IT WILL FOCUS MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER JET STEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH ADVANCING S/SE FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH HELP ENHANCE THE RAINFALL...AND POTENTIALLY THE SVR THREAT
TODAY ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE ANTICYCLONIC ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 250 HPA 100-110+ KT JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN
AND ERN NY IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUR FCST IS NOT VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NRN TIER...DUE TO THE APPROACHING CANOPY
OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ITS LEADING PRE- FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE SPC SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ACCEPTED OVER THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA...AND EMPHASIZED IN THE HWO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SVR STORMS MAY BE FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY.
THE GFS/NAM ARE CONSISTENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG FROM ROUGHLY THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. SFC DEWPTS
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPT IN THE 60S TO EVEN SOME
L70S. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP TODAY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 6.5 C/KM/...AS THE REMNANT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER HAS SHIFTED DOWNSTREAM. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 25-40 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS MAY FORM INTO A COUPLE OF LINES. THE
BEST CHC OF A SUPERCELL MAY BE ACROSS THE SRN EXTREME WHEN THE 0-6
KM SHEAR INCREASE TO 40 KTS AND THE SBCAPE VALUES MAY REACH 2000
J/KG. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS...BUT WITH TALLER UPDRAFTS SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
THE BEST 850-700 HPA THETA-E LAPSE RATES IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS NIGHTFALL.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND LOCAL HIRES WRF SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM
TROUGH...MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN
PLACE.
THE SECONDARY ISSUE TODAY WILL BE THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS
ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-SEPT. THE LATEST GEFS SUGGEST
PWATS ARE 1 TO ALMOST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
ACTUAL PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.33-1.80" RANGE WITH SOME
POCKETS CLOSE TO 2.00" IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THE
BEST H850 THETA-E RIDGE SETS UP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...SRN
VT...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST /330-335 K RANGE/. SOME
TRAINING MAY OCCUR WITH THE LINES OF CONVECTION. AN ISOLD FLASH
FLOOD OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
LARGE ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION GETS
INTO MORE DETAILS ON THE RAINFALL BELOW.
POPS WILL BE JUST SLIGHT CHC/CHC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
AND RISE TO THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN MENTIONED THROUGHOUT THE
GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS. ALSO THE PHRASING...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS VALUES WITH M70S TO
NEAR 80F NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES...AND 80-85F SOUTH AND
EAST...EXCEPT OVER THE MTNS WHERE 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL GIVE A MAJOR BOOT
TO THE MUGGY AND STICKY WEATHER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL A MID
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MAY MIGRATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE STEADY
RAINFALL GOING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF EVEN HINT AT A WEAK SFC WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
MAY OCCUR FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
SHRIVEL UP SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AS THE INSTABILITY WANES
CONSIDERABLY. DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL BE SWEEPING INTO THE NRN
ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U40S OVER
THE SRN DACKS TO U50S AND L60S TO THE CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND NW CT.
FRIDAY...QUITE A CONTRAST IN AIR MASSES...AND TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER SRN QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OFF
SOME ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND NRN ZONES. IT WILL BE BRISK AND
CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
IN THE FALL LIKE AIR MASS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER THE
SRN DACKS...SOME OF THE ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS...AND 60S
TO A FEW L70S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CEASE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THE CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH A
DECENT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WINDS UP. H850
TEMPS LOWER TO +1 TO +4C. NOT EXPECTING FROST ON THIS NIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE U30S TO M40S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND MOVES
DOWN STREAM OVER SE QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WINDS WILL
BE LESS ON SATURDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MAINLY MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NY AND PA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. NEAR
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
30S TO L40S. SOME AREAS OF FROST MAY MATERIALIZE OVER THE SRN
DACKS REGION. A BRIEF MENTION WILL BE PLACED IN THE HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND PASS THROUGH OUR FA BY MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON SUNDAY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. FOR MONDAY EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ON TUESDAY EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM AROUND LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO MVFR/IFR WITH HEAVIER PCPN. LATER TONIGHT
THE PCPN WILL TAPER OFF HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR
AT MOST SITES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS TODAY AND THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME WITH MORE WET WEATHER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AN AUTUMNAL AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...AND THE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER ONLY TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT IN THE MUGGY AIR
MASS THIS AFTERNOON...AND RECOVER TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. EXPECT MINIMUM
RH VALUES TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
TODAY...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT. EXPECT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER PREFRONTAL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE...URBAN...AND LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN FALLING
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS EVEN A THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FFG VALUES REMAIN HIGH TODAY. THE 1-HR ZONAL
FFG VALUES ARE IN THE 1.7-2.4 INCH RANGE...AND THE 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES RANGE FROM 2.1-3.1 INCHES.
INTO TONIGHT...THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA MAY RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES. OVERALL...MAINLY MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE...URBAN...AND LOW LYING AREAS IS EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES WILL
OCCUR ON MAIN STEM RIVERS...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NERFC. FLOWS REMAIN AT NORMAL TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS HEADING INTO MID SEPTEMBER.
THE UPPER LOW MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
904 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013
.UPDATE...UPPER LOW IN GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH.
MOISTURE STREAM ROTATING THROUGH WYOMING INTO EASTERN IDAHO
SHOWING PWAT AROUND ONE INCH...SOME 200 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. DRY
SLOT PUNCHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA WITH NO
PRECIP AND PLENTY OF CLEARING WHICH SHOULD AID IN DESTABILIZATION
TODAY. CLOSER TO CENTER OF LOW...NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE POISED TO
PUSH INTO THE STATE WITH PWAT AGAIN AROUND ONE INCH SOME 175-180
PERCENT OF NORMAL. SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH AND AFTERNOON
STORM MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 10 KTS...REGION REMAINS POISED
FOR ANOTHER BIG RAINFALL DAY. NAM REDEVELOPS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
BY NOON...THOUGH HRRR AND LOCAL WRF LESS IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE
DAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL KEEP POPS HIGH WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION...ALSO HIGHLIGHTING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE DAY. HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS FOR TODAYS GRIDS FOR CURRENT
SAT/RADAR/MODEL TRENDS BUT LEFT OVERALL CHARACTER OF FORECAST
INTACT. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. UNSTABLE AIR IN NORTHERN
UTAH CONTINUED TO GENERATE LIGHTNING EVEN AT THIS HOUR OF THE
NIGHT. THIS AIR MASS IS MOVING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER ABOVE ONE INCH...MORE UNSTABLE CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX ON THE
GFS...AND WITH A TRIGGER OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE ONE
INCH. THIS IS LIMITED TODAY TO THE AREA FROM THE UTAH BORDER TO
AS FAR NORTH AS THE HAILEY AREA...AND THE WYOMING-IDAHO BORDER
REGION. ZONES WITH PROBLEMS SUCH AS RECENT LARGE BURN AREAS ON
STEEP SLOPES AND PREVIOUSLY SATURATED GROUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT IN THE SAME LOCATIONS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
THAT BROUGHT ALL THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL
EVENTUALLY END UP IN SOUTHERN IDAHO BY THE WEEKEND...MEANING THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. MESSICK
LONG TERM...SUN THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. AS THE LOW STARTS MOVING
FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTHERN IDAHO ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT DECREASES STARTING MON. BY MID WEEK THE
WESTERLY FLOW THAT REPLACES THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE STRONGER
AND THUS EXPECT MORE WIND DURING THIS TIME...BUT THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER NORTH. MESSICK
AVIATION...A DRY SLOT CURRENTLY TRYING TO NOSE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY
CLEAR KBYI AND KPIH BY 14Z...BUT REMAIN IN VICINITY AT KIDA AND
KSUN. AIR MASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE BY 20Z WITH THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES...THEN SOME STABILIZING AFTER 03Z. RS
FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS VERY MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS SOUTHEAST
IDAHO. THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS
RESULTING IN MUD AND DEBRIS SLIDES ON RECENT BURN AREAS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH TO IDAHO TODAY AND FRIDAY...AND EVENTUALLY BREAK UP AND
MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF HUMIDITY PROBABLY WILL NOT
OCCUR BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING IDZ021>025.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
IDZ018-031.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
249 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
249 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTHERN IL AND STRETCHES INTO CENTRAL MI.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH VARIOUS BOUNDARIES OVER NORTHERN
IL. THE TWO MAIN BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE THE LAKE BREEZE OVER
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHERN
SHOWERS THAT STRETCHES FROM PAW PAW TO ELMHURST. EXPECTING MUCH OF
THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER
AREAS OF FORCING. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE CAPE VALUES UP TO
2000 J/KG OVER THE REGION. THE BEST 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NORTH OF I-88
WHERE SHOWERS HAVE STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT. AREAS SOUTH OF I-88
AND THE COLD FRONT REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AT OR ABOVE 9C/KM BUT UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK
AROUND 6C/KM. SHEAR IS ALSO LESS THAN DESIRABLE SO EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WELL ORGANIZED STORMS. MAIN THREAT REMAINS
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR A DOWN BURST GIVEN PWAT VALUES 1.5+ WHICH
IS +2SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. SOUNDINGS ALSO FEATURE INVERTED
VS BELOW 700MB. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND WEAK FORCING.
EXPECTING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO MOVE SOUTH OF I-88 LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SKIES TO THIN OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS TO DROP TO
AROUND 60 NORTH OF I-88 AND THEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-80...AND DOWNTOWN.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW ALONG WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIP WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT...BUT TEMPS WILL FALL. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE -2 TO 6 DEGREES C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THAT LAKE WATER TEMPS ARE AROUND 21 DEGREES C LAKE EFFECT RAIN
BECOMES A CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH CREATE AN
ELONGATED FETCH DOWN THE LAKE. AS SUCH HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN IL THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY...THEREFORE SHIFTED THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN COOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN IN FRIDAY.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT
DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE FALL LIKE...AND BELOW
NORMAL. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND
FRIDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND 40S ON FRIDAY.
EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER TEXAS WHILE THE NOW MOBILE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVER SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THE TROUGH
AXIS OF A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY ROTATES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
RIDGING FOLLOWS BEHIND THE TROUGH INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL NOT SEEING
A GOOD CHANCE FOR THE SOAKING RAIN WE NEED.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. A WARM UP TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
TRENDS IN WIND DIRECTION...SPEED...GUSTINESS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND TONIGHT.
MVFR LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS TONIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT NOT IN
HANDLING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES. SO...WHILE HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO LOW IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS SUCH AS EXACT WIND DIRECTIONS...SPEEDS AND GUSTS
AND TIMING OF SUCH.
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OVER THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH THE RESULT BEING THE CONTINUED SLOW
SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IN ALONG THE ORIGINAL
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
HELPING MAINTAIN ITS EXISTENCE RATHER THAT TOTALLY WASHING OUT.
THREAT OF ANY SHOWERS OF THUNDERSHOWERS AT THE LOCAL TERMINALS
NIL OVERNIGHT THE REST OF THE NIGHT...EVEN AT KGYY WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY AROUND 05Z HAD
QUICKLY PASSED EAST OF THE AIRFIELD BY AROUND 0530Z PER LOCAL
RADARS.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED REACH NORTH CENTRAL IN BY 09Z
AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALL THE
TERMINALS WITH EVEN KGYY LOSING THEIR CEILING BY 08Z.
WHILE MODEL PROGS AND THEIR MOS GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A VEERING
OF THE SURFACE WINDS FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH-
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...WHICH IS WHAT ONE WOULD TYPICALLY
EXPECT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THE SURFACE OBS
LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM ARE NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS
IDEA. THE FACT THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS
STILL QUITE WEAK AND SURFACE DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION WINDS REPORTED IN METARS...IF THERE IS ANY WIND...IS
RESPONDING TO LOCAL INFLUENCES RATHER THAT LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC
CONDITIONS.
A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IS THAT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MEAN UPPER TOUGH...WHOSE AXIS EXTENDED
FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MS
VALLEY LATE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO
PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE AND HAVE HAVE ITS AXIS BY 12Z EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN U.P. OF MI SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS WI TO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MN...AND FURTHER ADVANCING IT TO FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MI
AND NORTHEASTERN IL MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTICALLY ONE WOULD EXPECT A BACKING-VEERING SIGNATURE TO BE
SEEN IN THE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
AND AND THEN PASSES BY THE LOCAL AREA AND WITH THE ERRORS IN THE
SHORT TERM FORECASTS OF THE MODELS HAVE A STRONG SUSPICION THAT
THEIR INDICATED TREND OF A CONTINUED VEERING TO OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY EARLY TO MID MORNING...AND TO OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OR EVEN A SOLID NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING IS IN ERROR. BELIEVE THAT THE SIGNIFICANT
VEERING WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES
BY LATE MORNING-MIDDAY.
DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AND THE BEGINNING OF SOME
GUSTINESS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESS BUT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20KT RANGE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN FOLLOWING THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATER
TODAY.
WHILE NOT EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE THERE IS SOME CLOUDS WITH 060-100
AGL BASES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND EXPECT THE TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH A MID LEVEL DECK ARRIVING LOCALLY MID-LATE MORNING
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THOUGH WITH THE DRYING OF THE
LOWER LAYERS WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SOME VIRGA OR A SPRINKLE
OF TWO AT THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
NEXT ITEM THAT NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ADVANCING
FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO REACH KMDW AND KORD AS THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON PROGGED STRONG LOW LEVEL COOLING
COUPLES WITH WINDS TO VEER A BIT NORTH OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE ALREADY
ONGOING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE.
SUSPECT A MID LAKE BAND OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NORTH TO SOUTH DOWN
LAKE MI THIS EVENING...WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BAND TURNING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN
IN AS WELL FAR NORTHEASTERN IL.
KGYY AND KMDW TO HAVE HIGHER CHANCES OF MVFR LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES
NOT VEER QUITE FAR ENOUGH TO OUT OF THE THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE LARGE COOL CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT BUT THERE THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL MOVE TO KORD THOUGH AND MVFR WOULD SEEN TO BE A TEMPO RATHER
THAT A PREVAILING CONDITION. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EXPECTED MID LAKE CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THE WESTERN EDGE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST...TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNT AND
SOUTHWARD NEAR/ALONG THE IL-IN BORDER. BY PRE-DAWN FRIDAY.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY.
MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS SUCH AS EXACT WIND
DIRECTIONS...SPEEDS AND GUSTS AND TIMING OF SUCH FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IS EXACTLY HOW FAR WESTWARD LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS WILL REACH LATER EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
* TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
142 PM CDT
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THE WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY UP TO 25 KT INTO THURSDAY. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE CLOSER TO 30KT FOR A PERIOD
LATER THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS
DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE AHEAD OF A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE NORTH INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE LAKE BY FRIDAY
EVENING...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THIS HIGH...THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT LIKELY DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE LATER IN THE WEEKEND SETTING UP ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW.
THESE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME HIGH WAVES OF 6 TO 10
FT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME WATER SPOUTS LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW AS UPPER
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM QUICKLY EARLY
FRIDAY...LIMITING THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY. IN SPITE OF
THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR SOME ISOLATED WATER SPOUTS.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...1 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM
SATURDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...1 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM
SATURDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...1 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
157 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013
FOCUS OF FORECAST ON NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS WITH CONVECTION CHANCES
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB TO AOA 90 MOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AND FAR NE AREAS (WHICH COULD STILL MAKE IT
AT 20Z). ONSHORE WIND HAS NOW SETTLED INTO KBEH WITH A 10 DEGREE
DROP IN TEMPS AFTER A PEAK OF 89 A FEW HOURS AGO. AS MANY OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS INDICATED...LL MSTR HAS BEEN MIXED OUT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE 60 TO 63 DEGREE RANGE FOR DEWPTS. THE EXCEPTION WAS
ALONG A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS NOW STALLED OUT FROM WOLCOTT IN TO
COLUMBIA CITY TO MONROE MI. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR 2 MANAGED TO POP
ACROSS MAINLY NW OHIO...BUT DIED JUST AS QUICK. 18Z DTX SOUNDING
SHOWED ANY CAPPING HAS BEEN ERODED. HOWEVER...LACK OF FORCING NW OF
THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT UNTIL ARRIVAL OF
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM QUAD CITIES IOWA TO
THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOL THUNDER WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE AND SHOWING SIGNS OF TRYING TO EXPAND
SWARD. WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC POPS IN FAR NW AREAS AND BLEND INTO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVE TO REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WIDELY
SCT CONVECTION AS COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH. SVR RISK LOOKING
MINIMAL WITH MAIN FOCUS WELL SE OF THE AREA (16Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
REMOVED MOST OF THE AREA FROM SLGT RISK) BUT STILL WORTHY OF
WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR HAS SUGGESTED OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING BACK ACROSS
ILLINOIS/IOWA COULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. POPS
LATER TONIGHT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOMEWHAT NW WARD...BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION TO LOW.
AS NOTED IN PAST DISCUSSION...AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE COOLER
THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT PRETTY SEASONABLE FOR MID SEPT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. STRONGER TROUGH AND PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS DYNAMICALLY MORE
IMPRESSIVE BUT SERIOUSLY LACKING MSTR (MORE SO THAN TODAY). A FEW OF
THE MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT FAR NE AREAS LATE THURS
AM INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL FROPA BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013
SIG SW TROUGH OVR SRN SK WILL CONT TO AMPLIFY SEWD THROUGH THE ST
LAW VALLEY SHRT TERM W/RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SECONDARY DISTURBANCE QUICK
ON ITS HEELS LT THU ALL CARVING OUT A RESPECTABLY DEEP TROUGH OVR
NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. STG SFC ANTICYCLONE BLDG SWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY AS THIS EVOLVES WILL BRING ABT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SO FAR AND IN STARK CONTRAST TO HEAT OF LAST TWO DAYS. PER MOS
TRENDS AND IN LIGHT OF TEMPS ACRS CNTRL CANADA SEE SOME VALIDITY TO
MET MOS IMPLIED MID-UPR 30 MINS SAT AM UNDERNEATH CRUX OF SFC RIDGE.
REGARDLESS BREVITY OF DEEP CAA SURGE SHRT LIVED W/PROGRESSIVE FLW
ALOFT CONTG...ALTHOUGH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SHLD EXTEND THROUGH SAT
BFR TEMPERED MODERATION ENSUES TIED TO THE BEGINNINGS OF LARGER
SCALE PATTN SHIFT ACRS NOAM NOTED IN MOST MED RANGE GUIDANCE AT LONG
RANGE...DYS 6-10 AND OF WHICH LOOKS TO RESULT IN A MUCH WETTER/WARMER 8-14
DY PD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013
PRIMARILY VFR MET CONDS...SAVE FOR POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY WEAK
CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF KFWA. AS BLYR CONTS TO STABILIZE DO NOT
FORSEE TOO GREAT CHANCE FOR TSRA AT AIRFIELD PROPER AND WL CONT TO
OMIT. ARDENT DRAW OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER/COOLER POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS TO AFFORD SOME MINOR GUSTS MIDDAY. ASSERTIVE DIG OF
UPSTREAM ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER MANITOBA INTO EWD PROGRESSING
LONGWAVE TROF COULD AFFORD SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH EXTREMELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND
OVERALL DEARTH OF MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR MET CONDS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1148 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013
SURFACE AND RADAR DATA SHOWS A SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WHICH
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM.
AT 20Z...CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
IS IN THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NEAR
WHAT THE HRRR RUNS HAVE SHOWN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS HAS BEEN
INITIALIZED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONVECT
AS WELL AS CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE AND THE CAP
DECREASES THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUITE
UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND
STORMS ALONG IT INCREASE. WE CONTINUE TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS MOISTURE AND FORCING FIELDS LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE.
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY...AND IS THEN CONFINED ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...FOR THE COOLEST DAY IN A WHILE ACROSS
THE REGION.
COOK
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY THIS COMING WEEK UNTIL THE WARM FRONT /THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THOUGH THE AREA RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT/ MOVES
THROUGH. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGING SHOULD CENTER
ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION...AS INDICATED BY THE MEAN OF THE 11.00Z
NAEFS. THIS WILL BRING WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL BACK INTO THE REGION.
COOK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013
A FAIRLY WET NIGHT ANTICIPATED IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR SLN AND RSL...AS A
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...INTERACTING WITH
DEEP/RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE. LESS NUMEROUS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT
HUT...ICT AND POSSIBLY CNU LATER TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH FOCUS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
INTO SOUTHERN KS TOWARD DAY`S END.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 69 83 65 79 / 30 50 30 20
HUTCHINSON 68 81 63 77 / 40 60 30 30
NEWTON 68 82 63 78 / 30 50 30 20
ELDORADO 70 84 64 80 / 30 40 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 70 86 67 80 / 20 30 30 20
RUSSELL 67 78 61 73 / 60 70 40 40
GREAT BEND 66 78 62 74 / 50 70 50 40
SALINA 68 83 63 78 / 50 60 30 20
MCPHERSON 67 82 63 77 / 40 60 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 70 88 67 82 / 10 20 20 10
CHANUTE 69 86 64 81 / 20 40 10 10
IOLA 70 85 63 80 / 30 40 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 69 88 65 82 / 20 30 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUITE AN ENTERTAINING WATER VAPOR LOOP OF THE CONUS WITH THREE NEAR
CONSECUTIVE UPPER LOWS EFFECTIVELY SITTING/SPINNING IN PLACE...W/ A
NUMBER OF OTHER DYNAMIC FEATURES PASSING BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
THE FIRST IS A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE INNER-MTN WEST/ROCKIES. TWO
MIRROR-IMAGE SMALLER UPPER LOWS ARE ON OPPOSITE SIDES OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
EACH OF THESE FEATURES ARE KEY IN THE SET-UP FOR THE MID-ATLC`S WX
TODAY. A CORRIDOR OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC IS BEING
DRAWN UP BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW AND TX. THE JET
STREAM IS BRINGING IN A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA AND
SPREADING OUT THE MOISTURE TOWARD THE EAST. THE SRN ATLC UPPER LOW
IS KEEPING THE MOISTURE LOCKED-IN BENEATH THE EXITING BUT LARGE
UPPER RIDGE MOVING OFF THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE U80S AND A FEW L90S ALONG W/ EXTENSIVE
L70S DEWPOINTS. STILL A HOT/HUMID DAY EXPECTED BUT INCREASING CLOUDS
AND PRECIP LATER THIS AFTN WILL BRING SOME RELIEF EARLIER IN THE
DAY. AFTER ONLY REACHING THE M70S FOR CURRENT OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...WE`LL SEE A GOOD INCREASE BACK INTO THE 80S AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MRNG.
IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY...WE ALREADY HAVE
A WEAK BUT RADAR-DETECTED BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE STRETCH FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH NE TOWARD
S CNTRL NY...DRIFTING SE. THE 05Z RUN OF THE HRRR IS ACTUALLY
CREATING A THIN LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL PA THAT BARELY
STRETCHES JUST S ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND MOVES E OVER THE
POST-DAWN HRS. A HANDFUL OF CELLS DEPICTED DOWN THE SPINE OF THE
APLCNS/FOOTHILLS AS WELL. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY...A FEW LULL HRS
EXPECTED UNTIL SOME OF THIS DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE NW GETS CLOSER
AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY INCREASES OVER THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LAGGING BACK ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...SO MUCH OF TODAY`S ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS GFS/NAM
WE`RE MORE UNSTABLE NOW THAN WHEN THE SFC FEATURES MOVE THRU DURING
THE DAYTIME HRS TODAY.
AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH BACK ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY...STILL BACK TO
OUR NORTH AND NW. AS POTENT AS THE LINE MAY BE...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
SHOWS A FAIRLY QUICK WEAKENING OF THE UPPER VORT DRIVING THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT SLIDES BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
WHILE A PORTION OF THE LINE MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ALL MEMBERS SHOWS RAPID DECREASE NOT ONLY
IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BUT A TRANSITION TO SHOWERY AND
LESS-CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN PRECIP AS COLDER/DRIER AIR MAKES IS QUICKLY
ENTRAINED INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL END UP AROUND 10 DEG LOWER THAN OUR CURRENT
TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND OFF THE
COAST. A WAVE OF "FALL" WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS
WILL GO FROM THE 70S THU AFTN TO BARELY ABOVE 50 ON FRI AFTN. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY BE NOTICEABLE IN TERMS OF MUCH LOWER HUMIDITIES...BUT
COOL/DRY NWLY WINDS WILL MAKE THE TEMPS IN THE 70S FEEL EVEN A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...BUT
MAXIMA WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER OVER
THE RIDGES.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE STRETCH DUE
TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING WHICH WILL START TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMO.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY. ECMWF IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS GENERATE LOW QPF BUT GIVEN
LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE CONTINUE TO KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WX FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...W/ ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG IN
USUALLY FOG-PRONE AREAS AND INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG AND E OF THE
APLCNS. A BRIEF BRUSH W/ SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER THE BALT AREA
SITES LATER THIS MRNG IF A LINE OF TSTMS DEVELOPS AS SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...BUT A VERY OUTSIDE AND ISOLATED CHANCE ATTM. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HIGHER POTENTIAL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TODAY
W/ MORE SUBSTANTIAL FORCING SPREADING OVER THE AREA. AFTER THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES THRU AN DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT...BREEZY NWLY WINDS WILL SWING FROM BEHIND THE FEATURE AND
LINGER THRU FRI AFTN. CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND BUT CIG HEIGHTS WILL
RETREAT TOWARD THE MID LEVELS...WHEREAS SOME LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MAY PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO CHANNEL UP THE MAIN STEM OF THE BAY FROM THE
SOUTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND A DYNAMIC LOW PRES
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...DEVELOPING SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
AFTER THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND SWITCH TOWARD NWLY. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TOWARD SUNSET THIS EVE AND LAST THRU FRI AFTN...WEAKENING FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
NORTHERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DOWN THE BAY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
EVENTUALLY WILL REQUIRE A SCA EXTENSION. SCA WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/BPP
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...GMS/BPP
MARINE...GMS/BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
324 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
AT 315PM/2015Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
BORDER. MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...INCLUDING THE NORTHLAND...HAD
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WAS RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND RANGED
FROM THE LOW 50S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION HAD MID 60S TO LOW 70S. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND.
TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE OVER
THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL TREND IN CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND WHICH WILL BE A RECIPE FOR A COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. I BELIEVE OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNDERESTIMATING THE DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...SO I
LEANED AND FORECASTED SLIGHTLY BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE. FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL VERY LIKELY PLUMMET TO NEAR AND SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. I MAINTAINED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE IRON
RANGE AND INTERIOR ARROWHEAD...AS WELL AS THE FROST ADVISORY FOR
KOOCHICHING COUNTY...BUT ADDED NORTHERN ITASCA COUNTY TO THE FROST
ADVISORY. I STILL HAVE A LITTLE CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT AND HOW IT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS COLD
AS FORECAST. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING PRETTY
GOOD CLEARING TONIGHT. THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER HERE AND THERE...SUCH AS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT I
THINK IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE FORECAST. I ADDED PATCHY
FROST TO OTHER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...SUCH AS PARTS OF THE SW
AND SE FORECAST AREA...BUT HELD OFF ON EXPANDING FROST ADVISORIES
TO THOSE AREAS SINCE THE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE FOR
FROST. ALSO...THERE MAY BE LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS OF NW
WISCONSIN DUE TO THE NORTH WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE EVENING
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND RECONSIDER ADDING OTHER
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE FROST ADVISORY.
FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARDS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...SAVE THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
WHICH WILL SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE AND COLD TEMPERATURES SLIDE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN OVER THE
AREA. THIS CONTINUES...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO
SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THE LAST
FEW DAYS FINALLY GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND
EJECTS OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THE RESULTING SYSTEM PULLS SOME
MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA...WITH A WARM FRONT THAT GETS AS FAR
NORTH AS SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTH
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT
SATURDAY NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH...TO
THE MID 40S NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY TO BE MUCH COLDER AND DRIER WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING AS WELL. SUNDAY
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT MINS COULD ONCE AGAIN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST...WITH MINS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM TO ENTER THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WAVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND EVEN
EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT IS HARD TO SPECIFY ANY DRY PERIODS WITH THE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION GOING ON ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT IN THE
VICINITY...THOUGH I AM SURE THERE WILL BE SOME. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE PLAINS AND ADVANCES ACROSS
MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY. TRACK AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY WITH THE LOW IN
THE STATE AND PLENTY OF HEAT AND MOISTURE IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH MOST
CLOUD BASES AOA 3KFT. KHYR 2.5-3KFT...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RISE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS CUMULUS FIELD MAY GO BROKEN AT
TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS WILL BE
VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. TONIGHT CUMULUS FIELD AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH...AND EXPECT SKY TO CLEAR WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS BY
01Z THIS EVENING. SOME STRATUS AROUND 2-3KFT MAY AFFECT MN
ARROWHEAD...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. FOG POSSIBLE AT KINL
AND KHYR...BUT ONLY HAVE CONFIDENCE AT KHYR AND HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR 1SM BR. 14-18Z FRIDAY WINDS TO TURN
SOUTHWEST...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS. SOME VFR CUMULUS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS TIME RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 40 65 48 71 / 0 0 0 20
INL 34 69 49 74 / 0 0 0 30
BRD 38 70 49 71 / 0 0 0 30
HYR 35 67 43 71 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 39 65 47 72 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ010-018.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
950 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING TO REFLECT THE LATEST
CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY DUE TO THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CANADA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM. I SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED
ON A WIDE BLEND OF NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE...AND I THINK THIS
REFLECTS THE CLOUD COVER AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WELL.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT I HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON WHETHER IT WILL LINGER.
FURTHERMORE...IF THE CLOUDS LINGER...IT COULD PREVENT PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM GETTING AS COLD AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...AND
THIS IN TURN COULD AFFECT OUR CURRENT HEADLINES FOR FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. I WILL LOOK MORE INTO THIS LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 CDT THU SEP 12 2013
UPDATED THIS MORNING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR STRATUS STREAMING
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THESE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY MIDDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT ACROSS CURRENT
FREEZE WATCH AREA.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE ARROWHEAD
AND ACROSS PORTION FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TO DAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING AS
INDICATED BY THE CU RULE. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER NE
MN TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
THE TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO NEAR AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF KOOCHICHING...ST. LOUIS...AND INLAND AREAS OF THE
ARROWHEAD. WILL PUT UP A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL ST.
LOUIS AND INLAND LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. IT LOOKS THERE MAY BE A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY SO TEMPS MAY NOT GET AS LOW. THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY GIVING THE REGION
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT...SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ALL IMPACT THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND...BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
KEEPING THE AREA DRY INTO MONDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES OF THE INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES. CONFIDENCE DROPS TO BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER SIXTIES TO MID SEVENTIES ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN DROP TO AROUND 60 OVER OUR FAR
NORTHERN CWA...TO THE MID SIXTIES SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
SLOWLY WARM BACK TO THE UPPER SIXTIES TO MID SEVENTIES BY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CEILINGS WERE MOVING WEST AND
SOUTH...BUT THERE ARE BREAKS AS WELL. MORE MID LEVEL CEILINGS WERE
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE RAP WAS DOING AN
FAIR JOB AT DEPICTING THESE CEILINGS THIS MORNING...AND DOES
INDICATE THEY WILL STICK AROUND UNTIL 17-19Z...ALTHOUGH BASES
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS ALREADY COVERING THE
NORTHLAND...WE SHOULD SEE SOME CU DEVELOP WITH HEATING. BASES
SHOULD BE VFR THOUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WHICH COULD SEE LAKE
CLOUDS DEVELOP DUE TO COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 65 38 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
INL 63 32 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 69 38 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 66 35 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 63 40 63 46 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ010.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
943 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING TO REFLECT THE LATEST
CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY DUE TO THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CANADA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM. I SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED
ON A WIDE BLEND OF NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE...AND I THINK THIS
REFLECTS THE CLOUD COVER AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WELL.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT I HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON WHETHER IT WILL LINGER.
FURTHERMORE...IF THE CLOUDS LINGER...IT COULD PREVENT PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM GETTING AS COLD AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...AND
THIS IN TURN COULD AFFECT OUR CURRENT HEADLINES FOR FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. I WILL LOOK MORE INTO THIS LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 CDT THU SEP 12 2013
UPDATED THIS MORNING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR STRATUS STREAMING
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THESE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BY MIDDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT ACROSS CURRENT
FREEZE WATCH AREA.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE ARROWHEAD
AND ACROSS PORTION FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TO DAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING AS
INDICATED BY THE CU RULE. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER NE
MN TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
THE TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO NEAR AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF KOOCHICHING...ST. LOUIS...AND INLAND AREAS OF THE
ARROWHEAD. WILL PUT UP A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL ST.
LOUIS AND INLAND LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. IT LOOKS THERE MAY BE A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY SO TEMPS MAY NOT GET AS LOW. THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY GIVING THE REGION
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT...SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ALL IMPACT THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND...BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
KEEPING THE AREA DRY INTO MONDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES OF THE INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES. CONFIDENCE DROPS TO BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER SIXTIES TO MID SEVENTIES ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN DROP TO AROUND 60 OVER OUR FAR
NORTHERN CWA...TO THE MID SIXTIES SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
SLOWLY WARM BACK TO THE UPPER SIXTIES TO MID SEVENTIES BY WEDNESDAY.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1236 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
AREAS OF FOG WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR REDUCED VSBYS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20 KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CEILINGS WERE MOVING WEST AND
SOUTH...BUT THERE ARE BREAKS AS WELL. MORE MID LEVEL CEILINGS WERE
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE RAP WAS DOING AN
FAIR JOB AT DEPICTING THESE CEILINGS THIS MORNING...AND DOES
INDICATE THEY WILL STICK AROUND UNTIL 17-19Z...ALTHOUGH BASES
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS ALREADY COVERING THE
NORTHLAND...WE SHOULD SEE SOME CU DEVELOP WITH HEATING. BASES
SHOULD BE VFR THOUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WHICH COULD SEE LAKE
CLOUDS DEVELOP DUE TO COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 65 38 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
INL 63 32 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 69 38 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 66 35 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 63 40 63 46 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ010.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS FROST/FREEZE TONIGHT ACROSS CURRENT
FREEZE WATCH AREA.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE ARROWHEAD
AND ACROSS PORTION FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TO DAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING AS
INDICATED BY THE CU RULE. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER NE
MN TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
THE TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO NEAR AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF KOOCHICHING...ST. LOUIS...AND INLAND AREAS OF THE
ARROWHEAD. WILL PUT UP A FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL ST.
LOUIS AND INLAND LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. IT LOOKS THERE MAY BE A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY SO TEMPS MAY NOT GET AS LOW. THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY GIVING THE REGION
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT...SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ALL IMPACT THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND...BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
KEEPING THE AREA DRY INTO MONDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES OF THE INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES. CONFIDENCE DROPS TO BELOW AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER SIXTIES TO MID SEVENTIES ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN DROP TO AROUND 60 OVER OUR FAR
NORTHERN CWA...TO THE MID SIXTIES SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
SLOWLY WARM BACK TO THE UPPER SIXTIES TO MID SEVENTIES BY WEDNESDAY.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1236 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
AREAS OF FOG WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR REDUCED VSBYS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20 KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CEILINGS WERE MOVING WEST AND
SOUTH...BUT THERE ARE BREAKS AS WELL. MORE MID LEVEL CEILINGS WERE
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE RAP WAS DOING AN
FAIR JOB AT DEPICTING THESE CEILINGS THIS MORNING...AND DOES
INDICATE THEY WILL STICK AROUND UNTIL 17-19Z...ALTHOUGH BASES
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS ALREADY COVERING THE
NORTHLAND...WE SHOULD SEE SOME CU DEVELOP WITH HEATING. BASES
SHOULD BE VFR THOUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WHICH COULD SEE LAKE
CLOUDS DEVELOP DUE TO COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE WARMER WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 65 38 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
INL 63 32 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 69 38 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 67 35 67 41 / 10 0 0 0
ASX 64 40 63 46 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ010.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1051 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013
Band of showers and scattered thunderstorms have diminished as
they have slowly moved south this morning. This is in response to
subsidence moving in behind upper trough now moving through the
Great Lakes. There will still be enough instability and low level
moisture convergence to keep isolated thunderstorms and scattered
showers going through mid afternoon.
Otherwise, surface analysis shows three fronts late this morning.
There is a quasi-stationary front over the southern CWA, a cold
front entering the northern CWA that has much cooler and drier air
behind it, and and third cold front over the upper Midwest. These
fronts will progress southward allowing the cooler and drier
airmass to move southward through tonight.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013
Frontal boundary making very slow progress to the south across
forecast area early this morning. Thus post frontal activity making
slow progress as well, so adjusted pops accordingly. Coverage of
activity still hard to pin down. Current HRRR run continues to
show activity diminishing over the next several hours across
northern MO and central IL, before refiring late this morning/early
this afternoon closer to I-70 corridor, then slide south. So timed
pops similar to this scenario. Still looks like front and pcpn to
exit by sunset. Otherwise, this is a transition day with highs
still above normal in the mid to upper 80s.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013
By tonight, surface ridge to build in bringing cooler and drier
weather for Friday and Saturday. Tonight`s lows will be in the low
50s to low 60s. Highs will be in the 70s on Friday and Saturday with
lows between 45 and 50 Friday night and in the 50s Saturday night.
Saturday night ridge begins to move off to the east allowing
southerly flow to return once again. Next weather system approaches
area as well with front moving into northern MO by Sunday. Timing
and coverage hard to pin down, so will just keep chance pops going
for northern portions of forecast area Sunday. Pcpn to move a bit
further south Sunday night, but coverage to remain scattered and
mainly along and north of I-70.
Front to remain stalled out over forecast area, wavering back and
forth. So trying to pin down pcpn chances hard to do, so will just
have chance pops for portions of the area through the rest of the
forecast period. Though best chances appear to be on Wednesday for
most of the forecast area.
As for temperatures, to remain at or just below normal Sunday
through next Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013
The initial cold front is moving through the St. Louis area at
this time with scattered showers along and just ahead of it. These
showers are small in terms of size and shouldn`t create any long
lasting impacts but could briefly reduce the vsbys to 3-5sm. There
also could be an isolated thunderstorm but I believe that will be
south of the terminals. The area of rain and isolated embedded
thunderstorms across northeast Missouri into west Central Illinois
is occurring ahead of a second cold front and is moving to the
east and shrinking. I don`t believe it will bodily make it down to
KCOU or KSTL/KSUS/KCPS but there could be some new spotty showers.
Otherwise VFR conditions will dominate. The secondary cold front
will push through the area by noon with n/nw winds aoa 10 kts and
diminishing cloud cover.
Specifics for KSTL:
The initial cold front is moving through the St. Louis area at
this time with scattered showers along and just ahead of it. These
showers are small in terms of size and shouldn`t create any long
lasting impacts but could briefly reduce the vsbys to 3-5sm. I
think any thunder threat will be to the south of the terminal.
A few showers will remain possible after this initial batch until
a second cold front pushes through from 17-18z. N/NW winds aoa 10
kts are expected this afternoon with diminishing cloud cover.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
652 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013
Frontal boundary making very slow progress to the south across
forecast area early this morning. Thus post frontal activity making
slow progress as well, so adjusted pops accordingly. Coverage of
activity still hard to pin down. Current HRRR run continues to
show activity diminishing over the next several hours across
northern MO and central IL, before refiring late this morning/early
this afternoon closer to I-70 corridor, then slide south. So timed
pops similar to this scenario. Still looks like front and pcpn to
exit by sunset. Otherwise, this is a transition day with highs
still above normal in the mid to upper 80s.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013
By tonight, surface ridge to build in bringing cooler and drier
weather for Friday and Saturday. Tonight`s lows will be in the low
50s to low 60s. Highs will be in the 70s on Friday and Saturday with
lows between 45 and 50 Friday night and in the 50s Saturday night.
Saturday night ridge begins to move off to the east allowing
southerly flow to return once again. Next weather system approaches
area as well with front moving into northern MO by Sunday. Timing
and coverage hard to pin down, so will just keep chance pops going
for northern portions of forecast area Sunday. Pcpn to move a bit
further south Sunday night, but coverage to remain scattered and
mainly along and north of I-70.
Front to remain stalled out over forecast area, wavering back and
forth. So trying to pin down pcpn chances hard to do, so will just
have chance pops for portions of the area through the rest of the
forecast period. Though best chances appear to be on Wednesday for
most of the forecast area.
As for temperatures, to remain at or just below normal Sunday
through next Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013
The initial cold front is moving through the St. Louis area at
this time with scattered showers along and just ahead of it. These
showers are small in terms of size and shouldn`t create any long
lasting impacts but could briefly reduce the vsbys to 3-5sm. There
also could be an isolated thunderstorm but I believe that will be
south of the terminals. The area of rain and isolated embedded
thunderstorms across northeast Missouri into west Central Illinois
is occurring ahead of a second cold front and is moving to the
east and shrinking. I don`t believe it will bodily make it down to
KCOU or KSTL/KSUS/KCPS but there could be some new spotty showers.
Otherwise VFR conditions will dominate. The secondary cold front
will push through the area by noon with n/nw winds aoa 10 kts and
diminishing cloud cover.
Specifics for KSTL:
The initial cold front is moving through the St. Louis area at
this time with scattered showers along and just ahead of it. These
showers are small in terms of size and shouldn`t create any long
lasting impacts but could briefly reduce the vsbys to 3-5sm. I
think any thunder threat will be to the south of the terminal.
A few showers will remain possible after this initial batch until
a second cold front pushes through from 17-18z. N/NW winds aoa 10
kts are expected this afternoon with diminishing cloud cover.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
322 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013
Frontal boundary making very slow progress to the south across
forecast area early this morning. Thus post frontal activity making
slow progress as well, so adjusted pops accordingly. Coverage of
activity still hard to pin down. Current HRRR run continues to
show activity diminishing over the next several hours across
northern MO and central IL, before refiring late this morning/early
this afternoon closer to I-70 corridor, then slide south. So timed
pops similar to this scenario. Still looks like front and pcpn to
exit by sunset. Otherwise, this is a transition day with highs
still above normal in the mid to upper 80s.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013
By tonight, surface ridge to build in bringing cooler and drier
weather for Friday and Saturday. Tonight`s lows will be in the low
50s to low 60s. Highs will be in the 70s on Friday and Saturday with
lows between 45 and 50 Friday night and in the 50s Saturday night.
Saturday night ridge begins to move off to the east allowing
southerly flow to return once again. Next weather system approaches
area as well with front moving into northern MO by Sunday. Timing
and coverage hard to pin down, so will just keep chance pops going
for northern portions of forecast area Sunday. Pcpn to move a bit
further south Sunday night, but coverage to remain scattered and
mainly along and north of I-70.
Front to remain stalled out over forecast area, wavering back and
forth. So trying to pin down pcpn chances hard to do, so will just
have chance pops for portions of the area through the rest of the
forecast period. Though best chances appear to be on Wednesday for
most of the forecast area.
As for temperatures, to remain at or just below normal Sunday
through next Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2013
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. An initial cold front, near KPPQ and just north of
KMBY, will drop S to at least the Interstate 70 corridor late
tonight, and this will be followed relatively quickly by a second
cold front very late tonight and into Thursday morning from north
to south. SHRA/TSRA has reformed nicely across northern MO and
central IL this evening, but we are still expecting it to really
only affect KUIN overnight with very little left by the time
anything gets close to the other TAF sites. The pair of cold
fronts moving thru will progressively veer the winds to NW-N by
Thursday afternoon with some gust potential possible during the
afternoon near KUIN.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions will prevail thru the period.
Unfavorable time for a pair of cold fronts to be moving thru: the
first late tonight and the second late Thursday morning, and so
have kept the mention of rain out. There could be sprinkles in the
area, but still too much in doubt. Surface winds will progressively
veer from to NW-N by Thursday afternoon with the strongest winds
during that afternoon.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2013
.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2013
Primary concern for tonight will be convection developing
along/ahead of the cold front now moving southeast through Iowa.
Already seeing scattered storms over north central Missouri. SPC
meso-analysis is showing about 1000 j/kg surface CAPE up there well
ahead of the front, with as much as 2500 j/kg along the front in
Iowa. Another axis of higher cape can be found south of the STL
metro area across the eastern Ozarks. Isolated storms have
developed in this region as well. Expect the storms over the Ozarks
to diminish fairly quickly during the early evening with the loss of
daytime heating, however isolated to scattered storms should
continue across northern Missouri into west central Illinois through
much of the night as the front drifts into the area. HRRR and 4km
NCEP WRF models depict this well, and the operational NAM, GFS, and
RUC models also print out light qpf along the front as it tracks
southeast. BUFKIT soundings never really indicate much CAPE in our
area tonight, with the highest readings from the NAM at around 1000
j/kg, so would not really expect any storms that affect the area to
get too strong.
Models have the initial wind shift (perhaps driven by outflow) down
to near the I-70 corridor by 12z Thursday. The truly cooler air
lags behind up across the MO/IA border. However, the shortwave
currently over Manitoba dives down overnight and into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley by around 18z Thursday. This will sharpen up
the longwave pattern and drive the cold front south through the CWFA
by Thursday evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to be possible until the front comes through and
cooler/drier air settles across the region.
Temperatures will be a little cooler on Thursday, but still thinking
mid to upper 80s ahead of the front. A true taste of Fall is
expected to close out the week and start the weekend as a Canadian
high pressure system settles into the Ohio Valley. Daytime highs
will be in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows will dip into the
low to mid 50s Friday morning, and mid 40s to low 50s Saturday
morning.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2013
Sunday through Wednesday
The Canadian high will continue to move east across the Mid-Atlantic
states Sunday. Return flow will ramp up bringing warmer and more
humid air back to the region. Medium range models develop a decent
low level baroclinic zone across northern Missouri into central
Illinois. Normally, I`d be more bullish with pops in vicinity of a
baroclinic zone with southwest flow impinging on it; however with
severe drought conditions once again being reported across much of
northern Missouri, am playing it conservatively for now with only
chance and slight chance pops through mid week. Temperatures will
be near or a few degrees above normal.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2013
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. An initial cold front, near KPPQ and just north of
KMBY, will drop S to at least the Interstate 70 corridor late
tonight, and this will be followed relatively quickly by a second
cold front very late tonight and into Thursday morning from north
to south. SHRA/TSRA has reformed nicely across northern MO and
central IL this evening, but we are still expecting it to really
only affect KUIN overnight with very little left by the time
anything gets close to the other TAF sites. The pair of cold
fronts moving thru will progressively veer the winds to NW-N by
Thursday afternoon with some gust potential possible during the
afternoon near KUIN.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions will prevail thru the period.
Unfavorable time for a pair of cold fronts to be moving thru: the
first late tonight and the second late Thursday morning, and so
have kept the mention of rain out. There could be sprinkles in the
area, but still too much in doubt. Surface winds will progressively
veer from to NW-N by Thursday afternoon with the strongest winds
during that afternoon.
TES
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2013
A record high temperature of 98 degrees was set at Saint Louis on
Wednesday, 9/11. This breaks the old record of 97 set in 1938.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have lowered pops across the northern portion of
the county warning area. Radar returns continue to indicate some
showers and isolated thunderstorms over southwest Montana. With
monsoonal moisture continuing to spread north, the latest RUC
analysis and HRRR data indicate showers will persist overnight over
southwest Montana. Remainder of the forecast looks good, including
temperatures. Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
Monsoonal moisture continues to move across southwest Montana.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop, mainly south of a
KHLN to KLWT line. Convective activity should end by 06z with some
mid and high level clouds persisting overnight. VFR conditions
persist with MVFR conditions and gusty erratic winds possible in the
vicinity of thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 243 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2013
Friday through Sunday...Monsoonal moisture continues to move into
the area as a mid level jet continues to move northward out of
Wyoming and into Southwest and South Central Montana. Storms have
generally been scattered and short lived...producing some lightning
along with brief heavy rainfall. Slow storm movement will create
the potential for some flash flooding...however no highlites are
anticipated at this time. Slightly cooler temperatures are
expected for Saturday across the area...with another round of
showers and storms possible...mainly over Southwest Montana.
Monday will see temperatures trend back to 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal averages...with a decreasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Suk
Sunday Night through Friday...Conditions for first half of next week
looking a bit unsettled but not overly wet as large Pacific trof
with embedded shortwaves moves from the PacNW coast to ern MT by Wed
eve. Warm southwesterly flow ahead of the trof will push
temperatures into the mid-80s (about 10-12 degrees above normal) on
Mon. Then first of the shortwaves arrives Mon night, with a weak
cold front coming through the forecast area and generating scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the region. We`ll see some initial
cooling behind the front as temps on Tues cool back to the mid-70s
before a second, sharper front and colder Canadian airmass cross
east of the Divide Tues night. Forecast models are depicting broader
precipitation coverage and rainfall totals possibly reaching 0.25
inch over the central mountains before the precipitation ends Wed
morning. The more noticeable impact will the autumn-like temps, as
highs on Wed are only expected to reach the mid-/upper-60s. Breezy
west-northwest winds behind the front will make it feel a few
degrees cooler across the north-central plains. But the cool down
will be brief, as models now in better agreement than yesterday in
showing a high pressure ridge building back over the state from Wed
aftn through Fri eve, with dry conditions and gradually warming
temps. Waranauskas
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 86 53 78 50 / 10 30 20 10
CTB 86 51 76 47 / 10 10 10 10
HLN 86 54 79 51 / 30 30 30 20
BZN 84 48 78 45 / 40 40 40 30
WEY 71 38 67 35 / 60 60 40 30
DLN 78 48 75 46 / 50 50 40 30
HVR 86 54 78 46 / 10 10 10 0
LWT 83 52 74 46 / 20 40 40 20
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
846 PM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BUT OVERALL FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. SATELLITE SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING THIS EVENING RESULTING IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RAPID
CITY RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTH OUT OF
WYOMING INTO POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES. HOWEVER...BILLINGS
RADAR SHOWS A MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFIED PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS BIG
HORN COUNTY WITH MOVEMENT NORTHWEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND BIG HORN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT THESE HAVE DIMINISHED. EXPECT A MORE
GENERAL LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN TO SHIFT INTO
BILLINGS WITHIN THE HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL A BIT
FURTHER NORTH INTO MUSSELSHELL COUNTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN...WITH IMPRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM NM TO MT. LATEST H3 ANALYSIS SHOWS A 50 KT JET
LIFTING INTO CENTRAL WY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AT NOSE OF THIS JET
MAX HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR CPR TO THE BIG HORNS. OTHER THAN THE
ACTIVITY IN OUR FAR SOUTH...OUR AREA REMAINS DRY AS HIGH CLOUD HAS
SUPPRESSED CONVECTION TO THIS POINT...DESPITE COOLING TEMPS ALOFT
UNDERNEATH LOW TO OUR SW.
MODELS AGREE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IN OUR
EAST TONIGHT...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH EXPECTED GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE JET ALOFT. COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT. RAP HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS/NAM...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN CURRENT JET POSITION...SO HAVE COVERED EVERYWHERE FROM
BILLINGS EAST WITH A LIKELY POP TONIGHT. BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS
SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORED PER DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW. INSTABILITY
SEEMS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE EFFECTS OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON...SO DO NOT
SEE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT TONIGHT.
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN SAGGING CANADIAN JET AND
SHIFT EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...SO EXPECT
STRONGER FORCING TO EXIT OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING. SFC FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH AND WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON BACK SIDE
OF DEPARTING LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF TSTMS ON SATURDAY...THOUGH BY AFTERNOON WE
WILL SEE AFFECTS OF DRIER POST FRONTAL CANADIAN AIR AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE. THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...ALBEIT A FAIRLY
SHORT ONE...FOR DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
TOMORROWS CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST
PER UPSLOPE FLOW AND TIMING OF FROPA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE
GREATLY REDUCED BY EVENING AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. HAVE SCALED BACK POPS QUITE A BIT SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE LESS
THAN AN INCH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCAL AMOUNTS THAT HIGH
ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST. AS FOR BILLINGS...LOOKS LIKE ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH WITH A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IF A HEAVY
SHOWER HITS US JUST RIGHT TOMORROW. TAKE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM IS
NOTHING LIKE WE HAD LAST WEEKEND...NOR WILL WE SEE THE INCREDIBLE
PCPN AMOUNTS THAT EASTERN COLORADO HAS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. DIFFERENT SET UP ENTIRELY.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASED E-SE WINDS AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS OVER OUR WEST/SOUTHERN
MTNS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE COOLER...BUT WITH
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID SEPTEMBER NORMALS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED LONG TERM FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS IN CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT ON RELATIVELY
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE REMAIN...BUT
DO NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST. CHANGES CENTERED
AROUND INCREASING WINDS IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS AND WESTERN
FOOTHILLS AROUND LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER... TO RESPOND TO
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING INTO AND OUT OF THE REGION.
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BUT CHANGE IS AGAIN
ON THE HORIZON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL BE
FLATTENED BY AN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY EVENING.
MONDAY WILL SEE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROD PASSES
EASTWARD. SO FAR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEARS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...COMPARED TO RECENT WEATHER...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER TUESDAY...WITH EXPECTED INTERVENING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE FORECAST DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL FALL TO
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE
WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT JUMP BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ROUTES/TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...INCLUDING KLVM...KBIL...KSHR...AND KMLS. THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR...WITH LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/076 052/078 055/085 057/081 054/073 049/073 049/083
65/T 20/B 01/U 23/T 32/W 11/U 00/U
LVM 054/073 047/078 050/085 049/078 045/072 042/072 041/079
44/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/W 21/B 02/T
HDN 058/076 050/079 051/086 054/083 052/076 048/076 050/083
66/T 21/B 11/U 13/T 32/W 11/U 00/U
MLS 061/077 050/076 053/084 058/083 056/074 050/074 052/083
66/T 10/U 01/U 12/T 33/W 11/B 00/U
4BQ 056/076 047/076 050/083 053/084 053/076 047/075 051/083
66/T 31/B 11/U 11/U 22/W 11/U 00/U
BHK 057/075 046/071 047/078 053/082 054/074 047/072 049/081
56/T 20/U 01/U 11/U 33/W 21/U 00/U
SHR 055/072 048/074 048/082 051/082 050/075 044/073 047/080
66/T 32/T 21/U 11/U 33/W 11/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1039 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER UP OVERNIGHT...AND TRIMMED PRECIP JUST A
LITTLE BIT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. LATEST RAP DATA WOULD SUGGEST
THAT PRECIP MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL BEFORE DAYBREAK INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...THAT MAY THE CASE. ALSO HAD
SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPS MAY NOT GET AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
IN SOME SPOTS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA GIVEN SLIGHTLY THICKER CLOUD
COVER.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 25000 WILL
TRANSITION DOWNWARD TO 5000-7000 FEET THROUGH 06-15Z AT ALL SITES.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS INITIALLY...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE TO 12 KNOTS OR GREATER BY 15-17Z WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KOFK
FROM ABOUT 09-15Z.
DEWALD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER OK
BUT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT...AND DEEPER LOW
CENTERED IN QB. WITH 850MB HIGH PLANTED FIRMLY OVER THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...MOISTURE WAS SHUNTED WELL SOUTH AND
WEST...WITH A COOL AND DRY POCKET CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE HIGH AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS CONTRIBUTING TO
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE ROCKIES.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN MIDWEEK...WITH LINGERING NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MOST DAYS. WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIRMASS TO
OVERCOME...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRUGGLE TO
SATURATE PROFILE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. STRONGEST LIFT
WILL SKIRT NORTH OF THE CWA...ACROSS SOUTHERN SD...BUT DID RETAIN A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT IN CASE SHOWERS SLIP INTO
NORTHEAST NEB. POTENTIAL FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION-TYPE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN NORTHEAST NEB ON SATURDAY...BUT BULK OF THE CWA WILL
WAIT FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR RAIN TO FALL. WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. FRONT DOES SEEM STRONG ENOUGH...WITH ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT...TO PRODUCE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
THUNDER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS MUCAPE /ELEVATED ABOVE
850MB/ INCREASES TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CLEAR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SPED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT...AS MODELS AGREE ON
RAPID COOL/DRY AIR INTRUSION ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND LINGERING SHOWERS...AS WELL AS IN POST-FRONTAL COOL AIR
ON MONDAY.
DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS STRONG AND MOISTURE-RICH RETURN
FLOW ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
NOSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW MAY NOT LINGER IN THE CWA TOO LONG
AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO IA/MN...BUT SHOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RISK PUSHES EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLIDES IN.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY LOOK MORE LIKELY TO BE DRY...AT LEAST WITH ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL MODEL
AGREEMENT IMPROVES.
MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
618 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
ALOFT: UPR-LVL FLOW IS COMPLEX. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NEAR SLC AND WILL
REMAIN THERE THRU 00Z/SUN. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS OVER TX
WITH ITS RIDGE EXTENDING N THRU THE PLAINS. A SHRTWV TROF WAS OVER
WY AND LIFTING N. THIS TROF WILL CONT INTO THE DAKOTAS TNGT-SAT
AND /COMBINED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROF DROPPING THRU CNTRL CANADA/
WILL FORCE THE RIDGE TO DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT E.
SFC: HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE UPR MIDWEST...WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW WAS
OVER MT...ALONG A SFC TROF. SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SE
TO S TNGT AND THEN TO SW TOMORROW. THRU 00Z/SUN...THE HIGH WILL
MIGRATE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE TROF WILL SETTLE INTO
NRN AND WRN NEB...AS THE NEXT CANADIAN COOL FRONT PRESSES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS.
REST OF THIS AFTN: CLOUDY S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES WITH THE
THREAT OF PATCHY -RA W OF HWY 183 ENDING. FROM THE TRI-CITIES N
AND E... SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS.
RADAR TRENDS: THE HI-RES RAP AND THE 06Z WRF-NMM HAVE DONE A VERY
NICE JOB WITH THEIR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY TODAY AND CONTS TO
SUPPORT CURRENT TRENDS. THIS BAND OF -RA WILL CONT LIFTING N WHILE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS IT PROGRESSES INTO DRIER AIR. THE FCST
AREA COULD THEN BE MOSTLY DRY THE REST OF THE NGT.
THE 12Z NAM WAS WAY TOO DRY WITH ITS 12 HR QPF ENDING AT 00Z VS
REALITY.
THE WY SHRTWV TROF WILL TAKE THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT/PCPN INTO
THE DAKOTAS TNGT. THAT IS ALSO WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL BE
AIMED. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHWR OR TWO WITHIN GENTLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WINDS BACKED TO THE S ON THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING AND MSTR IN THE
850-500 MB LAYER INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS IS SUPPORTING THE
ON-GOING -RA OVER WRN/SRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...WHICH IS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE GRADIENT OF HIGHER PW. BACKING WINDS AT ALL
LVLS WILL SHOVE THE MAX PW AXIS INTO THE FCST AREA TNGT.
WHILE MUCH OF THE FCST AREA HAS SEEN THE DECENT RAINFALL IN THE
PAST 3 DAYS /MOSTLY ALONG AND S OF I-80/...THE SAD FACT IS MUCH OF
THE HIGH PW AIR MAY END UP BEING WASTED. PROSPECTS FOR RAIN ARE
NIL TNGT AND NOT LOOKING GOOD TOMORROW EXCEPT IN VERY ISOLATED
POCKETS. WHILE THE SFC TROF GETS CLOSE...AND THE TAIL END OF THE
DAKOTA/S SHRTWV TROF WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE ...THERE ISN/T
MUCH FORCING ALOFT. SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH DURING THE DAYLGT HRS
OF SAT. WE CAN HOLD OUT HOPE FOR SAT NGT.
TNGT: MAINLY CLOUDY. CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SHWR OR TWO BUT
MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY.
ONE CONCERN IS WHERE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY THIN FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. DWPTS ARE LOW THERE AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF RATHER
SHARPLY THIS EVNG. FOR NOW ANTICIPATED THAT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
IN TIME TO ARREST DROP-OFF WITH LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM OVER THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA /MID-UPR 50S/. LOWS N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES ARE
ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SAT: M/CLOUDY. TEMPS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO CLOUD COVER
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS WERE LOWERED 1-2F. A HIGH-PW AIR MASS WILL BE
IN PLACE /2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. EXPECT SOME AREAS
MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND ISOLD-SCT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER SERN CO AND THE TX
PANHANDLE ATTM.
MLCAPE WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. INDIVIDUAL CELL MVMT WILL BE
NE AROUND 25 KTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 15-20 KTS. NO SVR WX IS
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING WITH IT OUR
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK
AND THUS AM NOT EXPECTING ANY KIND OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT RATHER
PERHAPS JUST A GENERAL LINE OR SEVERAL LINES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS KANSAS ON
SUNDAY AND WATCH OUT OVER OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OR FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE QUICK PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND AM NOW EVEN
GOING DRY FOR MONDAY ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE
MID 70S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LOW END RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP AND MAY ONCE AGAIN BE BACK TO
AROUND 80 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS
THE PLAINS...BUT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG SO NO REPEAT OF THE 90
DEGREE HEAT. EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUD COVER AND A RESULTANT CEILING WILL PERSIST AT GRI THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THE CEILING LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP MUCH BELOW 8000FT AGL. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 08KTS TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING TO
AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1239 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013
PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WANE ACROSS ALL BUT MAINLY THE
SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH A
ROGUE...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 6 INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THIS EVENING...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...WITH MAIN THREATS OF
50-ISH MPH WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO 50 MPH.
TEMP-WISE...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR TOMORROW IN MOST
AREAS WITH EXPECTATION OF OVERALL MORE SUN ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AREAS AND A DRIER AIRMASS.
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WEAK
COLD FRONT/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS
LINE...EFFECTIVELY SEPARATING A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZE FROM
A PREVAILING EAST-NORTHEAST BREEZE AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS MOST NEB
ZONES. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
HIGHLIGHTS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500/700 MILLIBARS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIES IN BETWEEN A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
OVER AR...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE NV/UT/AZ BORDER
AREA...AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH CARVED OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION...FEATURING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
INTO NORTHERN MN. VISIBLE SATELLITE CONFIRMS THAT CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE OVERTAKEN THE ENTIRE CWA...LARGELY A FUNCTION OF
TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION. FIRST...ACROSS COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR...A FAIRLY PERSISTENT EAST-WEST BAND OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS HAS HUNG AROUND NEARLY ALL DAY...AND SEEMS TO
BE LARGELY TIED TO AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE EVIDENT AROUND
700 MILLIBARS...WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
CENTERED DOVER NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN. JUST SOUTH OF THIS ARA OF
CONVECTION...THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF NEB COUNTIES HAVE REMAINED
LARGELY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONCE YOU GET TO THE STATE
LINE AND SOUTHWARD INTO KS...AN COMPLETELY SEPARATE AREA OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY. THIS CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN RESPONSE TO 1000-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT WITH FAIRLY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ONLY AROUND 20-25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MOST OF THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY ONLY PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINS...WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH AND MAYBE SMALL HAIL. DUE TO THE CONVECTION AND VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WERE AN ADVENTURE...AND IN
THE END IT APPEARS MOST OF KS ZONES TOPPED OUT AROUND 90...WITH
MID-UPPER 80S IN SOUTHERN NEB ZONES...BUT ONLY 70S ALONG AND NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
TURNING TO THE FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BIG
PICTURE ALOFT INVOLVES THE MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHERLY
OVER THE CWA AND ALSO STARTING TO DRY OUT FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TOWARD EASTERN IA/WI/MI. AS THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER...DECENT
MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH
THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND FOR
SEVERAL HOURS WILL LIKELY SEE A BLEND OF THE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL...SOMEWHAT HIGHER-BASED
ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR
TO LARGELY MOVE OUT AND/OR FADE AWAY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
POP-WISE TONIGHT...HAVE A DECENT GRADIENT RANGING FROM ONLY SLIGHT
20S NORTHEAST TO 40S-60S IN SOUTHERN ZONES ESPECIALLY KS. WOULD BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A THREAT OF STRONG STORMS LAST PAST
MIDNIGHT...BUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN CERTAINLY A FEW COULD WARRANT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. AS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...MADE ALMOST
NO CHANGE...USING A GUIDANCE BLEND TO AIM FOR UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION AS SEEN THIS MORNING...DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OR VERY IMPACTFUL...SO HAVE OMITTED FROM GRIDS.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY 12Z-00Z/7AM-7PM...THE BIG PICTURE
ALOFT INVOLVES THE CWA REMAINING UNDER A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWN
TO THE LOW LEVELS...INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL
CONTINUE ADVECTING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE LOW LEVEL
DRY PUSH EMANATING FROM AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING INTO
THE EASTERN ND/NORTHERN MN AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT SKY
COVER GRADIENT BETWEEN MOSTLY SUNNY NORTHEAST TO CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SOUTHWEST...THANKS TO A LINGERING BATCH OF MID LEVEL
SATURATION. UNDER THIS SATURATED LAYER...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS DURING THE DAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF THE CWA...BUT POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS A
GOTHENBURG-HEBRON LINE IN THE MORNING. POPS RANGE FROM ONLY 20-40
PERCENT...AND ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATEST 4KM WRF-NMM
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA GOING PRECIP-FREE
AFTER MID-MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...STEADY EAST-NORTHEAST BREEZES
OF 10-15 MPH WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY...USHERING IN LOWER
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH A
TIGHT SKY COVER GRADIENT COULD MAKE HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE...FELT
THAT INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE NORTHEAST ARGUED FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS...AND IN FACT RAISED NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA 2-4
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS BASED ON A GUIDANCE BLEND...WITH MOST AREAS
ENDING UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 79-83...OR RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
DATE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON INTERMITTENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS RESULTING TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
BY 0Z FRIDAY...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS ON THE CUSP OF TWO UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS...A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A DEGRADING RIDGE
TO THE WEST. THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEK...WILL BEGIN TO BECOME INGESTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...THEREBY DEGRADING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TO THE PLAINS.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE ISENTROPIC FLOW WILL BE ON TAP FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER...STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE A
BATTLE OF DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECTING A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SHOWERS TO FORM WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MIDDAY.
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...SHIFTING THE TROUGH EASTWARD...SHOWERS
SHOULD OVERRIDE THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT INTO AT LEAST
THE NEBRASKA ZONES BY FRIDAY EVENING.
AS CUTOFF LOW BECOMES INGESTED INTO THE MAIN FLOW AND THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OVERNIGHT...STALLING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SHOWERS
WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS...THESE SHOWERS MAY END UP BEING SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. BUMPED TEMPERATURES
UP A FEW DEGREES...ANTICIPATING A DECENT WARM UP.
A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGING ACROSS CANADA WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FRONT BACK THROUGH THE PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS WITH MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 500-750
J/KG.
SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING
ACROSS KANSAS. HEADING INTO THE WORKWEEK...YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL DRIVE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT THE BOUNDARY AS A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUS...WITH LIFT ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK TO BE WET AS
WELL.
BY MIDWEEK...PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECWMF SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...WITH MUCH COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO PHASE WITH THE GFS AND
THE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN...HOWEVER...WITH A SHORT WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A FAIRLY MILD WEEK AHEAD AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 70S TO MID 80S IN MOST AREAS. AS STATED
BEFORE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE WARMER GIVEN
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MIDWEEK WARMS BACK UP...HOWEVER...WITH THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL...WILL LEAVE MENTION AS VCSH.
THE WEAK SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE...INCLUDING THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST/EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE SFC BOUNDARY SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT...ANY CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ANY RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1237 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WAS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS...HELPING TO AMPLIFY A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN US AND EASTERN CANADA.
FURTHER WEST A REX BLOCK WAS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS BRINGING
PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SFC A WEAK FRONT WAS STALLED NEAR THE NE/KS
BORDER...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND MORE CLOUD COVER
TO THE NORTH OF FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013
BOTH THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG IN THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND A UNIFORMLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG. THE NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING THIS EVENING SUPPORTS THAT
SCENARIO...SO WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST IN THOSE
AREAS.
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF EASTERN CO/WESTERN
KS...LIFTING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OVER A STALLED FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST
ZONES...GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYES CENTER TO
OGALLALA. MONSOONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH ALOFT AND MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW NEAR THE SFC HAS LOCAL PWATS RUNNING CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOW NORTHERLY STORM
MOTIONS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS FURTHER NORTH AS DRY AIR WILL IMPEDE NORTHWARD EXPANSION. THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA AS THE REX BLOCK OUT WEST
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
MODEL TREND TO PUSH DRY AIR FURTHER WEST AND DECREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MOST MODEL SOLNS KEEPING THE
CWA DRY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THURSDAY NIGHT
BEGINS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA...THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. A LARGE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW DISCUSSED
EARLIER WILL BE SITUATED OVER NEVADA/IDAHO/UTAH.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A
STRONG AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL NOT
BE STRONG WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
PUSHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE UP ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE AND
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITABLE
WATER ABOVE 130 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE SO
THINKING WHEREVER RAIN FALLS...COULD GET SOME HIGH AMOUNTS. THAT
BEING SAID...BY THURSDAY EVENING THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE 40S
AND WILL COLLIDE WITH THE MOISTURE COMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS COLLISION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY NARROW GRADIENT
OF WET/CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO DRY/CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE MODEL TREND
IS SHOWING THE SURFACE HIGH BEING STRONGER AND DRIER THROUGH
FRIDAY...HAVE NARROWED THE GRADIENT BETWEEN NO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO SCATTERED CHANCES. THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE
LOCAL AREA STAYING COMPLETELY DRY...BUT DON/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE
TO CUT BACK THE CHANCES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST YET AS A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT.
MOVING INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BREAKDOWN WITH A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ALSO FOR SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH TO
BRING SOME WARMER AIR IN WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED BACK SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. ASSUMING THIS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AS
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD MEAN AUTUMN-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
RADAR ECHOES IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING
TREND...SO THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AT ANY ONE POINT IS VERY LOW.
STILL...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE EVENING SOUNDING FROM LBF IS GIVING A BIT OF A FOG SIGNAL AND
SHORT RANGE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEAR IT OUT. ALSO...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN THIS EVENING HAS MOISTENED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO HAVE VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM WOULD BE
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY FROM NEAR OGA TO EAST OF LBF. THE
STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM AT LEAST ONE MODEL INDICATES A FAIRLY HIGH
PROBABILITY OF CEILING BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AT LBF. CONSIDERING THE
GUIDANCE...WE WILL INCLUDE VERTICAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1000 FEET
AGL AND VISIBILITY AROUND 1SM IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR LBF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1039 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE DAYSHIFT CAPTURED LAKE
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE QUITE WELL IN THE FORECAST AND THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY OBS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES NOW.
THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
BATCH OF HEAVIER SHRA ACRS SE ZONES WILL MOVG OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS UPR LOW CONTINUES IT`S SLOW NEWD TREK. ANOTHER
VORT AXIS ACRS MI WILL MOV EWD ACRS THE FCST AREA LATER TNGT.
PLENTY OF LOW LVL MSTR PERSISTS TNGT...AND CONDITIONAL LAKE
INSTABILITY DVLPS. LOW LVL FLOW WILL MEANDER ARND 340 DEG...WITH
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES LIKELY AIDING DVLPMNT OF --SHRA
OR PATCHY -DZ. BEST BEST FOR LGT PCPN APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND W OF
THE I-81 CORRIFOR. GIVEN EXPECTATION OF CLDS TNGT XPCT MOST LOWS
TO BE IN THE M40S.
NAM/GFS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT WE`LL BE CLEARING OUT EARLY TMRW
MRNG...BUT GEM HOLDS ONTO THE CLDS MUCH LONGER (WELL INTO THE
AFTN...SPCLY ERN ZONES). LATEST RUC PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST OVC
SKIES AT 11Z ACRS CNTRL NY. FOR THIS REASON WE WERE LEARLY OF
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS QUICK AS MOS WOULD SUGGEST. CRNT FCST
MAY STILL BE TOO QUICK IN CLEARING THINGS OUT BUT TRENDED TWDS
SLOWER IMPPRVMNT TMRW. MAXES TMRW ON THE COOL SIDE...GNRLY 60-65.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RDG CRESTS OVER THE FCST AREA ON SAT NGT. POTNL FOR
PATCHY FROST SPCLY IN THE CATSKILLS AND COLDER SRN TIER VLYS. FOR
NOW WILL JUST MENTION POTNL IN THE HWO. OTRW SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A
NICE DAY WITH MAXES MODERATING INTO THE U60S AND LOWER 70S. WE`LL
PRBLY SEE A BKN CI DEWK MOVG INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTN
AHEAD OF THE NXT S/WV. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A CDFNT THRU ON SUNDAY
NGT...WITH POTNL FOR 2NDRY REINFORCING SHOT ON MONDAY. CHC/LIKELY
POPS FOR SUNDAY NGT...DCRSNG TO CHC POPS ON MONDAY. BEST CHC FOR
-SHRA ON MON APPEARS TO BE IN THE MRNG...WITH DRIER AIR AND
IMPRVNG SKY COVER ACRS NRN ZONES ON MON AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF
AREA AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LATE IN THE
PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN
MOVES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM
DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS AS
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE REGION AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN
CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE, WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS. AREA MAY BE
IMPACTED BY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SFC COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
BOTTOM LINE AT NY SITES WILL BE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAUSING
FUEL ALTERNATES AND AT BGM AND ITH MAYBE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. KAVP
A LITTLE HIGHER CIG BETWEEN 2K AND 4K FEET. IMPROVING TO VFR BY
SAT NOON.
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH A COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS COLD FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND FINGER LAKES WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED TONIGHT.
THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KBGM/KITH LATE TONIGHT AND SOME IFR CIGS
EVEN THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS
WAS INCLUDED IN JUST THE KITH TERMINAL THIS EVENING. KAVP WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND WILL PROBABLY BOUNCE BETWEEN HIGH
MVFR AND VFR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 KTS AROUND
14Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT THROUGH SUN...VFR...BUT MAYBE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/IFR
AT KELM.
SUN NGT/MON...SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MON NGT THROUGH WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
747 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BATCH OF HEAVIER SHRA ACRS SE ZONES WILL MOVG OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS UPR LOW CONTINUES IT`S SLOW NEWD TREK. ANOTHER
VORT AXIS ACRS MI WILL MOV EWD ACRS THE FCST AREA LATER TNGT.
PLENTY OF LOW LVL MSTR PERSISTS TNGT...AND CONDITIONAL LAKE
INSTABILITY DVLPS. LOW LVL FLOW WILL MEANDER ARND 340 DEG...WITH
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES LIKELY AIDING DVLPMNT OF --SHRA
OR PATCHY -DZ. BEST BEST FOR LGT PCPN APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND W OF
THE I-81 CORRIFOR. GIVEN EXPECTATION OF CLDS TNGT XPCT MOST LOWS
TO BE IN THE M40S.
NAM/GFS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT WE`LL BE CLEARING OUT EARLY TMRW
MRNG...BUT GEM HOLDS ONTO THE CLDS MUCH LONGER (WELL INTO THE
AFTN...SPCLY ERN ZONES). LATEST RUC PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST OVC
SKIES AT 11Z ACRS CNTRL NY. FOR THIS REASON WE WERE LEARLY OF
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS QUICK AS MOS WOULD SUGGEST. CRNT FCST
MAY STILL BE TOO QUICK IN CLEARING THINGS OUT BUT TRENDED TWDS
SLOWER IMPPRVMNT TMRW. MAXES TMRW ON THE COOL SIDE...GNRLY 60-65.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RDG CRESTS OVER THE FCST AREA ON SAT NGT. POTNL FOR
PATCHY FROST SPCLY IN THE CATSKILLS AND COLDER SRN TIER VLYS. FOR
NOW WILL JUST MENTION POTNL IN THE HWO. OTRW SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A
NICE DAY WITH MAXES MODERATING INTO THE U60S AND LOWER 70S. WE`LL
PRBLY SEE A BKN CI DEWK MOVG INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTN
AHEAD OF THE NXT S/WV. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A CDFNT THRU ON SUNDAY
NGT...WITH POTNL FOR 2NDRY REINFORCING SHOT ON MONDAY. CHC/LIKELY
POPS FOR SUNDAY NGT...DCRSNG TO CHC POPS ON MONDAY. BEST CHC FOR
-SHRA ON MON APPEARS TO BE IN THE MRNG...WITH DRIER AIR AND
IMPRVNG SKY COVER ACRS NRN ZONES ON MON AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF
AREA AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LATE IN THE
PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN
MOVES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM
DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS AS
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE REGION AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN
CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE, WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS. AREA MAY BE
IMPACTED BY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SFC COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
BOTTOM LINE AT NY SITES WILL BE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAUSING
FUEL ALTERNATES AND AT BGM AND ITH MAYBE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. KAVP
A LITTLE HIGHER CIG BETWEEN 2K AND 4K FEET. IMPROVING TO VFR BY
SAT NOON.
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH A COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS COLD FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND FINGER LAKES WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED TONIGHT.
THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KBGM/KITH LATE TONIGHT AND SOME IFR CIGS
EVEN THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS
WAS INCLUDED IN JUST THE KITH TERMINAL THIS EVENING. KAVP WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND WILL PROBABLY BOUNCE BETWEEN HIGH
MVFR AND VFR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 KTS AROUND
14Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT THROUGH SUN...VFR...BUT MAYBE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/IFR
AT KELM.
SUN NGT/MON...SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MON NGT THROUGH WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
120 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AFTER A COUPLE OF VERY WARM
TO HOT DAYS...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LEADING EDGE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE BUFFALO METRO AREA JUST SHY OF MIDNIGHT. ITS INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE NOT CAPTURED THIS WELL AT
ALL...HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z RGEM HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE
ON IT. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD PRETTY MUCH TRACK ENE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY TO THE
SOUTH...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD OF THE MAIN
COMPLEX...AND INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
SOME EMBEDDED STRONG STORMS HAVE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THIS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEN FOR TOMORROW...CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IF
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BOTH BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER STAND TO BREAK THE RECORD FOR WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE RECORD FOR FOR BUFFALO IS 72 (1931)...AND FOR ROCHESTER IS
71 (1931).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOTABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE PLACE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BY
AS MUCH AS 10 DEG F...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL
PROVIDE US WITH PLENTY OF DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION TO THE FAIR
WEATHER WILL BE FOUND EARLY IN THIS TIME FRAME WHEN NUISANCE SHOWERS
WILL BE FOUND OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.
A SHORTWAVE OVER NUNAVUT AT MIDDAY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AMPLIFYING
A BROAD BASED TROUGH THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE. AS THIS FEATURE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT...IT MAY HELP TO ENHANCE WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE A
WEAK LAKE RESPONSE FROM THE FRESH CHILLY AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL BE COVERED WITH CHC POPS.
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO DROP
TO BETWEEN ZERO AND 4C OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO OUR CORRESPONDING
NR SFC TEMPS WILL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THESE READINGS
WILL BE 20 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WHEN
MERCURY READINGS WERE HELD UP IN THE 70S FOR MOST SITES.
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. EVEN IF THE
AIRMASS WERE FULLY MIXED...H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF ZERO C WILL
ONLY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S (NR 60 CLOSE TO
THE WARMER LKS). THE MORE AUTUMN-LIKE MERCURY LEVELS WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETE THOUGH WITHOUT CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A
SECOND...TWIN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
COMBINE WITH A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED/
DIURNALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH SOME MORE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A 2-3 DEG CAP
SUPPLIED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT HGT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE...
COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL DRYING...WILL BRING AN END TO THE SHOWERS IN
MOST AREAS LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
COME SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SOME NUISANCE LAKE INDUCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LEAD TO
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PUSHING SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE 60 FOR MOST AREAS. MEANWHILE...IT WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 IN THE SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE THERE
COULD BE A TOUCH OF FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REMAIN
UNEVENTFUL...AS RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...
THE CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS OF
SASKATCHEWAN...EVENTUALLY ENDING UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION GENERALLY RAIN
FREE...WITH JUST THE PASSAGE OF A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT BEING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WEATHER MAKER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL IMPACT AN AREA STRETCHING FROM LAKE ONTARIO
TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER. WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...VSBYS COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY VCNTY
OF KART WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST EARLY
THIS MORNING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...EXCEPT
IN THE VCNTY OF PASSING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY ARE POSSIBLE.
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODEST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT AIR MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
920 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM FRIDAY...
REST OF TONIGHT: QUIET AND COOL BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HAVING PUSHED
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA... STRETCHING ACROSS SE NC... WHILE
SECONDARY TROUGHS WERE PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER NE NC AND OVER NRN VA.
THE 850 MB TROUGH IS SEEN ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DROPPING SE
THROUGH CENTRAL NC... WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AT 850-750 MB. MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP INDICATE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT TO KEEP A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA... THICKEST AND MOST
EXPANSIVE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE LOWER LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS
DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE ATTENDING THE AREA OF GREATEST LIFT.
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING
ROANOKE RAPIDS / ROCKY MOUNT / WILSON / GOLDSBORO... HOWEVER THE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER APPEARS TOO DRY FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING TO SURVIVE
TO THE GROUND... ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO FALL
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TEMPS ARE ON CLOSE PACE WITH FORECAST TEMPS...
AND SEE NO REASON TO ALTER EARLIER FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM 54
NORTHEAST TO 63 SOUTHEAST. WITH THE LOWEST 50-100 MB REMAINING
FAIRLY MIXED AS THE COLDER/DENSER AIR SPILLS IN UNIFORMLY THROUGH
THIS LAYER... WE SHOULD SEE PERIODIC GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH
OVERNIGHT. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY WILL BE AN ABSOLUTE PICTURESQUE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
A MODERATING CANADIAN PARENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SNEAK PEEK OF AUTUMN WITH PRIOR NIGHTS
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAVING THICKNESSES STARTING OUT A GOOD 30 METERS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER. FULL SUN THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING AND A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY BROKEN AT TIME STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 4 TO 6KFT WHICH COULD
IMPEDE TEMPERATURES A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
A DRY AIRMASS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION SAT
NIGHT. RESULTING WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE SOME LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA...BUT NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD
ARC NWD AS FAR AS THE TRIAD. SO WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO CLOUD COVER...LOWS COULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH/NE TO LOWER/MID 50S NEAR THE SC BORDER...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE MID
40S FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIRLY WEAK AND MORE ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...FIRST ON MONDAY EVENING AND THEN A POTENTIALLY WETTER
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON
FRIDAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS.
REGARDING THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BUT FAVORABLE
DIURNAL TIMING AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A SEA BREEZE FRONT IN
THE EAST MAKE SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS VIEWED IN BUFKIT SHOW DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
UP TO 800 MB BUT VERY DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIMITING THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON AT SITES WHERE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER BY PEAK HEATING. SLIGHTLY MORE CAPE
(BUT STILL LESS THAN 100 J/KG) WILL BE AVAILABLE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA. ALL IN ALL EXPECTING A NON-EVENT WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA.
THE SECOND...AND POTENTIALLY MORE CONCERNING SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW LOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...INTO THE CAROLINAS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH COULD HELP TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER IS SHOWING A
LESS ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM WITHOUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW AT THIS TIME
AND FRANKLY IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN. FOR NOW WILL
INCLUDE INCREASING CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S...VERY SEASONAL
FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM FRIDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS WILL
VEER FROM A NNW DIRECTION THIS EVENING...TO NNE TO NE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON - STRONGEST IN THE 7-11 KT RANGE WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST
INTO THE MID TEENS KTS THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY...THEN WEAKENING
INTO THE 4-8 KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
PROMOTE THE OCCURRENCE OF 4 TO 8 THOUSAND FT STRATOCUMULUS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN COVERAGE AT EASTERN
SITES.... VERSUS FEW TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT TRIAD ONES.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE SUN...
RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SUN
NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WITH STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...MWS/CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
NOT MUCH TO UPDATE FOR TONIGHT. IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE THE UPPER WAVE TO THE WEST EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL...LIKELY MID
50S. RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY. THE 00Z/01Z RAP IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...AND HAS THE RAIN CHANCES
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE FA THAN OTHER MODELS. WILL ALLOW FULL SUITE
OF 00Z MODELS TO ARRIVE BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND HOW FAR
NORTH RAIN AREA WILL BE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS NICE PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE WITH PWATS 1.5 TO 2 INCHES MOVING NORTH FROM COLORADO AND
WRN KANSAS INTO WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW TO MOVE NORTH AND THEN GET DRAGGED EAST ACROSS SRN ND
SATURDAY AHD OF 500 MB TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD
NW MINNESOTA. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL AND SHOW HIGH
CHANCES FOR RAIN TO ENTER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN SPREAD OVER SE ND/WCNTRL MN BY 18Z SAT AND THEN EXIT LATE
SAT AFTN/EVE. WOULD APPEAR MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A JMS-FAR-PKD LINE WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL EXTENDING A BIT
NORTH OF THAT BUT HOLDING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. MEANWHILE...NRN 500
MB TROUGH WILL DROP INTO NE ND/NW MN SAT AFTN ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS IN
NE ND/NW MN SAT AFTN...AND INTO THE EVE IN NW MN. COULD BE THUNDER
IN PARTS OF THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION CLOSER TO A BIT BETTER
DYNAMICS WITH UPPER TROUGH. QUITE STABLE AIRMASS THOUGH FOR SRN
ND/SD/MN SO EXPECT GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS AND LIMITED TO NO
THUNDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STAY MUCH MILDER WITH MOSTLY LOW TO MID 50S
DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS. WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECT MOST AREAS TO STAY IN THE 60S SATURDAY....WITH
SOME LOWER 70S IN FAR NORTH WHERE SOME SUN PSBL OUT AHD OF COLD FRONT.
CLEARING SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANY PRECIP ENDING AFTER
06Z.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO ERN MANITOBA AND THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS REGION SUN AFTN-SUN NIGHT THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST MONDAY. WITH
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS DO EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR MID 30S
FOR LOWS OVER A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF NW MN AND SOME PARTS OF NE
ND BY 12Z MON. SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY FROST.
BUT AT THIS TIME...BULK OF REAL COOL AIR TO BE EAST...SO ANY TEMPS
IN THE 30S WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT LAST LONG AROUND
SUNRISE.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE SOMETHING OF A TRANSITION AS PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN PLACES A LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WITH
THE MAIN JET PUSHED INTO CANADA LOW PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE FA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO MID WEEK.
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM MID WEEK ARE THE PRIMARY ISSUES.
THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST IN BRINGING THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GEM/DGEX/GFS ARE 18-24 HOURS SLOWER...WITH
LARGE VARIATIONS OF WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL END UP. THE GEM WOULD
BE THE WETTEST WHILE THE GFS/DGEX/ECMWF DRIER. WITH THE TRANSITIONAL
LONGWAVE PATTERN SUSPECT THE RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DRIVE THE MAIN
FORCING NORTH...AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER. THIS SHOULD ALSO SLOW THE
MID-LATE WEEK SYSTEM DOWN A TAD. THE RESULT IS LINGERING -SHRA INTO
LATE THURSDAY EARLY FRIDAY IN THE NORTHEAST CWFA. A BLENDED SOLUTION
WITH THE GFS/DGEX PREFERRED.
HAVE OPTED TO MAKE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENT DOMINANTLY
-SHRA WITH ISOLD TS. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA WOULD BE THURSDAY AFTN ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF CWFA.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS IS THE
SLOWEST WHILE DGEX/ECMWF FASTER AND FLATTER. RETURN FLOW ALREADY
BEGINS FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS DEEP EAST PACIFIC TROUGH CAUSES
FALLING PRESSURES IN THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
VFR WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND -RA ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT KFAR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE OTHER TAF SITES...SWITCHING WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
THE PROBABILITY FOR -RA/MVFR CIGS IS LOW ALONG THE FRONT...BUT
WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1221 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS NW OHIO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING ON THURSDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN INDICATING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
DAYBREAK. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDER EXPECTED NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AS THE COOLER AIR SPILLS INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND MAY END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING AND MAY HOLD
STEADY OR DROP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 60S. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY STAY IN THE 50S ACROSS NW PA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUN NIGHT. MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO WILL ONLY CARRY A
CHANCE POP FOR SHRA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE
NORTH FOR MON BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHRA IN THE SE IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE
SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS TAKE OVER AND HOLD ON UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR
WED WHEN A WARM FRONT MAY BE LIFTING NEAR THE AREA ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE. THE MODELS DIFFER BY WED ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
MAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA SO WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP FOR NOW.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SUN THEN DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL MON
AND TUE BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUD HAD BEEN HELPING TO KEEP TSRA FROM DEVELOPING.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS AND RADAR DATA...STILL EXPECT SCT TSRA
OVER MAINLY THE SE THIRD OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR AND RUC
STILL INDECISIVE ON TIME AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL TSRA REST OF
TODAY...THUS DON`T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING AT ANY TAF
SITES THRU 00Z SO WILL LIKELY JUST MENTION VCTS UNLESS SOMETHING
LOOKS IMMINENT AT TAF ISSUE TIME.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...SHOULD SEE VFR/HIGH END MVFR TEND TO
PREVAIL AT MOST SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING WHEN PRECIP
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THEN WINDS START TO TURN NW TO ALLOW
LOWER CLOUDS TO MOVE IN OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
OUTLOOK...WILL LIKELY HAVE NON VFR CEILINGS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MODELS STILL INDICATE A SW FLOW AT ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT
UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE LAKE AROUND DAYBREAK THU TO
SHIFT THE FLOW TO NNW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY LATER THU
SO WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MAYBE 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET SO A SCA WILL BE NEEDED AND WILL
LIKELY LAST UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS
INTO THE LAKE TO DIMINISH THE FLOW.
THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE FLOW SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
THEN WINDS LINE UP OUT OF THE SW FOR SUN AND LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATER SUN
OR SUN NIGHT TO SHIFT THE FLOW BACK TO NORTH FOR MON AND MAY PRODUCE
NEAR SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
854 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH AND
SOUTHERN IDAHO, BROUGHT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND SOUTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTH AN DISSIPATED. CURRENT THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
IS LIMITED TO AREAS IS IDAHO AND NEVADA AND AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
TAHOE IN EAST CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT RAP AND NAM
FORECASTS SUPPORT LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SO HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO SPREAD FROM THE
COAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA, INCLUDING POSSIBLY AT ROSEBURG,
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF
FOR INLAND AREAS IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING BUT MAY LINGER ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOL CONDITIONS
TO THE COAST WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS INLAND. OVERALL, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLY, MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES AND
TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
INTO THE EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE COUNTY. HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY WEAK SO EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
LOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL APPROACH THE COAST AND
NORTHWARD AND INLAND ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
VARIABILITY ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CENTER OF THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW A 50 TO 60 KT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST JET IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND A 25 TO 30 KT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST JET IN THE MID LEVELS MOVING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. CAPE
AND INSTABILITY ARE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHEAST
LAKE COUNTY. MODELS DIFFER IN MOISTURE WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AREAS OF INSTABILITY THAN THE NAM. AS A RESULT THE NAM KEEPS THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES. STILL, IN THE GFS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH MAINLY JUST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE ON SUNDAY
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN. ALSO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES ESPECIALLY FOR LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE AREA
WILL SEE COOLER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE 80S
FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.
BEHIND THIS LOW, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER ON
MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OVERHEAD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR INLAND AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE MARINE LAYER ALONG AND WEST OF THE COAST RANGE.
ALONG THE COAST IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FARTHER
INLAND AT ROSEBURG A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE BUT
NOT EXPECTED IN THE 12-16Z TIME FRAME. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
COUNTERACT THE FAIRLY HIGH 59F DEWPOINT TO RESULT IN MORE OF A
HEAVY DEW RATHER THAN SOLID DECKS. BTL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH AUTUMN WEATHER IS KNOCKING AT OUR
DOOR...SUMMER IS NOT QUITE FINISHED WITH US YET. HIGH PRESSURE AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD ONLY BE THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL TO DO SO OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN A DESCENT INTO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES...AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEARLY ACROSS THE BOARD.
THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10 TO 15 DEGREES FORM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HOWEVER...THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO A DRY AIR
MASS...AND MOST OF THE SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPING RAINFALL WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE OPTED FOR ONLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY...MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE ENOUGH ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THESE COULD
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE TIP END OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE A SECOND TROUGH ENTERS THE
REGION TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST SIDE
THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ON THE
EAST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ONCE AGAIN...MOSTLY CONCENTRATED ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. SLIGHT RIDGING WILL THEN DEVELOP
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND SHOULD KEEP THINGS
DRIER...BUT WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS ALOFT...TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN
COOLER. THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM IS DUE IN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
TROUGH COULD BE THE ONE THAT PUTS AN END TO FIRE SEASON...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER THEN ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MOSTLY DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SO DO NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE GOING WITH POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE FOR NOW...AND WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE EVENT APPROACHES THE SHORT TERM TO NAIL DOWN THE
DETAILS.
LONG STORY SHORT...HOT AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL GIVE
WAY TO FALL-LIKE WEATHER NEARLY OVERNIGHT...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WILL FEATURE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
405 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...ENDING THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER OF THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. ANOTHER TASTE OF FALL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO INHERITED FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN CONTINUES TO BLOW DOWN TREES AS IT GETS INTO
THE MID SUSQ/LOWER SUSQ WHERE CAPES ARE HIGHER THAN THE NORTHERN
THIRD/HALF OF THE AREA.
HRRR AND RUC ARE IN AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A SECONDARY BUT MUCH
MORE-BROKEN AND SHORTER/WEAKER LINE OF SHOWERS/STORM MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 23Z-02Z. THIS IS ALL IN LINE WITH THE GOING FCST.
DISSIPATION OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. SOME SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE FAR EAST AND FAR SRN TIER THRU MIDNIGHT...BUT
THESE SHOULD BE WELL BEHIND THE BEST MOISTURE AND HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT...AND WIND
STAYS UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. BUT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH HIGH MSTR AND ASCENT INTO THE MTNS.
DOWNSLOPE MAY HELP SOME CLEARING OCCUR IN THE SE...BUT WILL PLAY
IT MORE CLOUDY AT FIRST AND P/C LATER. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...TEMP
ADV IS STRONGLY NEG AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE N
AND 50S MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE 5H TROUGH AXIS STILL SLATED TO SWING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY TIME ON FRI. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DRIVE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER OVER THE ALLEGHENIES - BUT WILL LEAVE
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. TEMPS WON/T RISE MUCH ON FRI...WITH THE NEG
TEMP ADV AND CLOUDS IN THE NWRN 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. EXPECT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S IN BRADFORD AND UPPER 50S IN THE
LAURELS. THE TEMPS WILL BE MORE NORMAL IN THE DOWNSLOPE OF THE SE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN MUCH COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TWO
LARGE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA AND ACROSS PA DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BETWEEN
THE HIGH CENTERS...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
BE MOISTURE STARVED AND KEPT POPS MINIMAL. THE HIEST CHANCE OF
PCPN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL ALLOW A FLOW OF MOISTURE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ISOLD/SCT
POPS INTO THE GRIDS FOR NEXT THURS.
ALSO NOTABLY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STORMS OVER THE EAST ARE MOVING QUICKLY...BUT WILL STILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO MAKE 40+KT GUSTS IN MDT AND LNS IN VERY SHORT ORDER.
THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 22Z. BUT
AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SCT SHRA AND POSS T WILL SLIDE THROUGH AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORCED TO ASCEND
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME IFR CIGS AT BFD AND
JST. SHORT STATURE AND BRIEF DURATION/CLOSED CELLULAR BUT INTENSE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON FRI - MAINLY IN THE AFTN AS THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT AND THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.
THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS WHICH MIGHT SEE SOME IMPACT WILL BE JST
AND BFD. WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE TONIGHT AND PICK UP AND GUST
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE DURING THE DAY AND MAYBE A LITTLE STRONGER
IN THE AFTN FRI.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN PM-MON AM...ISOLD SHRA POSS.
MON PM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
348 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...ENDING THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER OF THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. ANOTHER TASTE OF FALL WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO INHERITED FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN CONTINUES TO BLOW DOWN TREES AS IT GETS INTO
THE MID SUSQ/LOWER SUSQ WHERE CAPES ARE HIGHER THAN THE NORTHERN
THIRD/HALF OF THE AREA.
HRRR AND RUC ARE IN AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A SECONDARY BUT MUCH
MORE-BROKEN AND SHORTER/WEAKER LINE OF SHOWERS/STORM MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 23Z-02Z. THIS IS ALL IN LINE WITH THE GOING FCST.
DISSIPATION OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. SOME SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE FAR EAST AND FAR SRN TIER THRU MIDNIGHT...BUT
THESE SHOULD BE WELL BEHIND THE BEST MOISTURE AND HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT...AND WIND
STAYS UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. BUT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH HIGH MSTR AND ASCENT INTO THE MTNS.
DOWNSLOPE MAY HELP SOME CLEARING OCCUR IN THE SE...BUT WILL PLAY
IT MORE CLOUDY AT FIRST AND P/C LATER. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...TEMP
ADV IS STRONGLY NEG AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE N
AND 50S MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE 5H TROUGH AXIS STILL SLATED TO SWING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY TIME ON FRI. THE INSTAILITY SHOULD DRIVE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER OVER THE ALLEGHENIES - BUT WILL LEAVE
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. TEMPS WON/T RISE MUCH ON FRI...WITH THE NEG
TEMP ADV AND CLOUDS IN THE NWRN 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. EXPECT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S IN BRADFORD AND UPPER 50S IN THE
LAURELS. THE TEMPS WILL BE MORE NORMAL IN THE DOWNSLOPE OF THE SE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN MUCH COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED IS A RETURN TO AUTUMN AS TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECTING A MUCH COOLER
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY...TO LOW
70S ON SUNDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW SOMETIME
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT. THE WEAKNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
DRYNESS OF THE AIR IN PLACE BRINGING INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH PCPN MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SO KEPT MINIMAL POPS ATTM. THE SECOND
ANTICYCLONE FOLLOWS TUE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR YET MORE DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STORMS OVER THE EAST ARE MOVING QUICKLY...BUT WILL STILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO MAKE 40+KT GUSTS IN MDT AND LNS IN VERY SHORT ORDER.
THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 22Z. BUT
AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SCT SHRA AND POSS T WILL SLIDE THROUGH AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORCED TO ASCEND
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME IFR CIGS AT BFD AND
JST. SHORT STATURE AND BRIEF DURATION/CLOSED CELLULAR BUT INTENSE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON FRI - MAINLY IN THE AFTN AS THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT AND THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.
THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS WHICH MIGHT SEE SOME IMPACT WILL BE JST
AND BFD. WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE TONIGHT AND PICK UP AND GUST
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE DURING THE DAY AND MAYBE A LITTLE STRONGER
IN THE AFTN FRI.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN PM-MON AM...ISOLD SHRA POSS.
MON PM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL END LATER TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ANOTHER TASTE OF FALL WILL ARRIVE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
80S IN THE SC MTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HEAT UP AS THE SKY HAS
CLEARED NICELY. EARLY CONVECTION IS NOW ALMOST OUT OF LANCASTER
COUNTY. THE HEATING SHOULD PUMP THE CAPES UP TO LEVELS JUST SHY OF
WED NUMBERS - BUT STILL WELL ABOVE 1500J/KG. FIRST COLD FRONT
WITH WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHT DIP IN DEW POINTS IS NOW ALMOST TO LAKE
ERIE...BUT PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG A MOISTURE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND TINY CELLS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN
A PSEUDO-LINE JUST EAST OF THAT SHIELD OF RAIN. THESE CELLS ARE
ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE CONVECTION IN OH AND SHOULD CONGEAL INTO
A BIGGER AND MORE-COHERENT LINE OF STORMS SHORTLY. HRRR AND RUC
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GOING FCST ON TIMING. THEY DO INDICATE A
SECONDARY LINE -JUST BEHIND THE FIRST BY 30-60 MINS...BUT THIS IS
WAY TOO CUTE TO TRY AND PAINT IN 1 HR POP GRIDS. SO...WILL HOLD
THE LINE WITH THAT AND JUST KNOCK THE POPS A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW VS EARLIER. SEVERITY OF THE STORMS IS
STILL LIKELY. SLIGHT RISK WAS EXPANDED EARLIER BY SPC - PROBABLY
WITH AN EYE TO TIMING AND CLEARING THAT IS OCCURRING. THE STORMS
SHOULD BE THROUGH IPT/UNV/AOO BEFORE SUNSET...AND OUT OF MDT/LNS
BY 9 PM. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE FAR EAST AND FAR SRN
TIER THRU MIDNIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE WELL BEHIND THE BEST
MOISTURE AND HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
5H TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GLAKS TONIGHT AND
SHARPENS AND SLOWS WHILE TRAVERSING CENTRAL PA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS REACHES INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME (FROM THE LAURELS
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES)...BUT
QPF WILL BE LIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...
WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S COMMON FOR HIGHS FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ SHOULD SEE MAXES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
70F FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FAR CRY FROM THE LOWER 90S SEEN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED IS A RETURN TO AUTUMN AS TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECTING A MUCH COOLER
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY...TO LOW
70S ON SUNDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW SOMETIME
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT. THE WEAKNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
DRYNESS OF THE AIR IN PLACE BRINGING INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH PCPN MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SO KEPT MINIMAL POPS ATTM. THE SECOND
ANTICYCLONE FOLLOWS TUE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR YET MORE DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARRIVAL OF A POTENT COLD FRONT IN BFD SHOULD BE LATE THIS
AFTN...AND INTO THE SERN TERMINALS BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
TIMING OF STORMS SHOULD BE ABOUT 3-4 HRS AHEAD OF THIS TIME. THESE
STORMS ARE INTO BFD AND WILL EXIT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY ABOUT 00Z-
01Z. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AND RELATIVELY
WELL-ORGANIZED AS IT CROSSES THE AIRSPACE...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORM WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG
REDUCTIONS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORCED TO ASCEND
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME IFR CIGS AT BFD AND
JST. SHORT BUT INTENSE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON FRI - MAINLY IN
THE AFTN AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST
LIKELY TERMINALS WHICH MIGHT SEE SOME IMPACT WILL BE JST AND BFD.
WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY PICK UP AND GUST INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE IN
THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN PM-MON AM...ISOLD SHRA POSS.
MON PM...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
947 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION GETTING AN EARLY START AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NE TN AND IN THE SMOKIES. 12Z
UNMODIFIED OHX/RNK SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG.
WINDS ALOFT STILL VERY LIGHT AND ERRATIC...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION OF
SE AT 10 MPH WILL BE A BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS MIGHT
INCREASE IN THE EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LIMITED TO GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AT THIS POINT...ALTHO STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO NEAR 1.75
INCHES.
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED COLD FRONT FROM NEAR PADUCAH KY NE INTO
EXTREME SRN IL AND SW IN. RUC AND NAM12 KM SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND SMOKY MTNS. MAY TWEAK POPS UP IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT EARLY ONSET OF
CONVECTION MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS. WILL FRESHEN GRIDS AND PRODUCTS
AROUND 11 AM EDT.
SOME GREAT WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND!
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 91 68 87 57 80 / 20 50 10 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 89 66 82 54 77 / 40 50 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 89 65 82 53 77 / 40 50 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 61 77 48 76 / 60 40 10 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
640 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR VISIBILITIES CONTINUE AT ALI/VCT THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS AT LRD. ALSO...ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND WILL OCCASIONALLY APPROACH
THE CRP/ALI TERMINALS. INCLUDED VCSH REMARKS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AS TO WHETHER THESE SHOWERS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EASTERLY AND EAST SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 18 AND 20 KNOTS AT ALI/VCT/CRP. LIGHT WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE LOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALI/VCT AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOME INLAND LOCATIONS BUT MOSTLY OVER THE
GULF WATERS. WITH THAT...HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT DRYING OUT AS MUCH AS THE NAM HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WILL KEEP 20 POPS TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA DESPITE
UPPER RIDGE MOVING BACK A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST. LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. EXPECT MOSTLY
LOWER 90S TODAY FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH A FEW SPOTS OUT WEST
PERHAPS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
MODELS PROG DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING DRIES
THE MIDLEVELS...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.
ABOUT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE TODAY. MODELS BEGINNING TO AGREE ON MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CANADIAN MAINTAINING AN OPEN WAVE AS FARTHER
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OCCURS. THE HURRICANE CENTER IS LOOKING AT LIKELY
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND 80 PERCENT CHANCE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. POSITIONING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S....KEEPING A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOVING TOWARD THE MIDDLE
MEXICAN COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN
SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISKS IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...TRENDED SIMILAR TO THE
PAST DAYS OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 76 93 77 93 / 20 10 20 20 20
VICTORIA 94 73 93 74 95 / 20 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 95 74 95 77 96 / 20 10 20 20 20
ALICE 95 73 93 74 94 / 20 10 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 92 76 92 78 91 / 20 20 20 20 20
COTULLA 95 72 97 74 97 / 10 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 94 74 93 75 94 / 20 10 20 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 90 78 90 78 90 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
426 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOME INLAND LOCATIONS BUT MOSTLY OVER THE
GULF WATERS. WITH THAT...HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT DRYING OUT AS MUCH AS THE NAM HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WILL KEEP 20 POPS TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA DESPITE
UPPER RIDGE MOVING BACK A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST. LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. EXPECT MOSTLY
LOWER 90S TODAY FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH A FEW SPOTS OUT WEST
PERHAPS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
MODELS PROG DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING DRIES
THE MIDLEVELS...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.
ABOUT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE TODAY. MODELS BEGINNING TO AGREE ON MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE CANADIAN MAINTAINING AN OPEN WAVE AS FARTHER
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OCCURS. THE HURRICANE CENTER IS LOOKING AT LIKELY
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND 80 PERCENT CHANCE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. POSITIONING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S....KEEPING A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOVING TOWARD THE MIDDLE
MEXICAN COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN
SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISKS IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...TRENDED SIMILAR TO THE
PAST DAYS OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 76 93 77 93 / 20 10 20 20 20
VICTORIA 94 73 93 74 95 / 20 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 95 74 95 77 96 / 20 10 20 20 20
ALICE 95 73 93 74 94 / 20 10 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 92 76 92 78 91 / 20 20 20 20 20
COTULLA 95 72 97 74 97 / 10 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 94 74 93 75 94 / 20 10 20 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 90 78 90 78 90 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
.UPDATE...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
32 UNIT ELONGATED VORT SLIDING SEWD FROM NE MN. SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS NW INTO SE WI FROM WK LOW PRES OVER SRN LAKE MI. NST
PARAMETER ON THE STRONG SIDE. SFC-3KM CAPE AROUND 150 J/KG...WHICH
IS ALSO FAVORABLE. HRRR AND OTHER MODELS SHOW SHRA DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AS A LOT OF PARAMETERS FOCUSING ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
PC
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO SE WI FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE LAKE MI. PLENTY OF CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL
CAPE TO WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR FUNNEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ANY SHRA THAT FORM. EXPECTING VFR CU FILED TO FILL
IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD/SCT SHRA DEVELOPMENT.
PROGS POINT TO ERN CWA A BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS. MODELS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH TNGT INTO FRI WITH 850 MILLIBAR COOL
POOL BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER MOS AND
SREF CIG PROBS NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS. WITH
850/925 TRAJ SUPPORTIVE OF BRINGING ANY LAKE CLOUDS ONSHORE THINK
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE MVFR CLOUD COVER THAN WHAT MOS/SREF IS
SUGGESTING.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
COLD POOL DROPS INTO REGION WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. 850 MB
TEMPS FALL 4C TO 7C BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY OVER THE
CWA. RESULTING INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH FORCING OVER EASTERN CWA
WITH SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH BACK SIDE OF TROUGH...BRINGS
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH LIMITED BY
SUBSIDENCE WHICH HOLDS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BELOW 10K FT...BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
FAIRLY DEEP MIXING IN THE WEST ALLOWS TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 70S
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN COOLING MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. LOW-MID 70S EAST WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PCPN.
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS ON THE COLD 00Z
NAM DIPPING TO +1C NE TO +3C SW AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS
HOLDING AT +3C NE AND +5C TO +6C SW...AND THE ECMWF SIDING WITH THE
NAM IN THE NE...BUT KEEPING THE SW WARMER LIKE THE GFS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEY BRING HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME.
THUS...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 925MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ONLY LOWER TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...AND
LOWER TO MID 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HIGH WARM
SLIGHTLY IN TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR SATURDAY.
MODELS THEN SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB LOW LEVEL
JET POINTS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THAT AREA AS WELL. MODELS TRY TO CLIP
THE AREA WITH QPF...AS 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH WEAKER WARM AIR ADVECTION. LEFT LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMER LOWS IN THE 50S ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY
BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH THE
QPF REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
DOES CLIP THE AREA IN THE MORNING. LEFT LOWER END POPS FOR SUNDAY
FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER WITH LOW PRESSURE AND TIMING OF QPF TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SO WENT WITH CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.
A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING
HOLD OF THE REGION.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERN TAF SITES WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HOLD BETWEEN 4K
AND 5K FT. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ENHANCED BY LIFT FROM PASSING
DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON...AND KMKE
AND KENW INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. IF
THEY DO OCCUR SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO DROP VSBYS TO MVFR.
MARINE...
MOVED UP TIMING ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BY
18Z AND INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BUILD WAVES
MEETING CRITERIA BY MID-AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP MENTION OF WATERSPOUTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC TO 850 MB
TEMP DIFFERENCES MAX BETWEEN 10-15C...LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...EXCEPT FOR THE COOLER NAM. LAKE INDUCED CAPE BETWEEN 400 AND
500 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS PUSHING 20K FT SUPPORT KEEPING THE
MENTION FROM MID-AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1115 PM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013
QUICK UPDATE TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY
TRENDS. INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM. CUT BACK POPS CONSIDERABLY...BUT
WITH SOME MUCH MOISTURE LINGERING FOUND IT HARD TO CUT POPS
TOTALLY. BEST AREA FORSOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION STILL LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE CONTDVD. MOORE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013
TONIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER BENT AND EASTERN LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY AND IT IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THE 12Z
AND 18Z NAM SUGGESTED THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS. SO FAR...THE CELLS HEADING TOWARDS EL PASO AND
TELLER COUNTIES ARE WEAK. HRRR HAS NOT BEEN DOING WELL TODAY...AS
18Z HRRR HAS MUCH MORE CONVECTION OVER EL PASO COUNTY AT THIS TIME.
BELIEVE THE NAM AND GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTION. WILL NOT
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...AS CHANCES FOR SLOWER MOVING CELLS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LOW. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRONG CELL OVER A BURN SCAR...BUT
CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING ARE SMALL. CONVECTION OF THE CWA WILL
MOSTLY END BY MID EVENING. KEPT POPS OVERNIGHT AS SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW.
SATURDAY...TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 8 TENTHS OF AN
INCH AND GREATER. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR CONVECTION IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AND HAVE HIGH SCATTERED TO SOME LIKELY
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SOME
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD CAUSE
PROBLEMS ON THE BURN SCARS. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP UPSLOPE AND LACK
OF INSTABILITY...BELIEVE CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER BURNS SCARS
AND OTHER SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. --PGW--
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013
...NEXT HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARRIVES BY SUNDAY MORNING...
OLD UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS COLORADO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE TROUGH OPENING UP...THERE DOESN`T
SEEM TO BE ANYTHING TO REALLY FOCUS THE ENERGY AND GET ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD GOING. SO...GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL STILL EXIST...BUT AGAIN...MORE HIT AND MISS THAN IN RECENT
DAYS.
ON SUNDAY...WE WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION
AGAIN. SUNDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY EVEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
WE WILL HAVE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COOL FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE COOL FRONT WILL FORCE UPSLOPE
FLOW AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS...TRIGGERING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION...FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
PRECIP. SO...THIS DAY WILL BE A HIGH THREAT DAY AGAIN FOR
AREA BURN SCARS. AND...WITH THE RECENT SATURATION THAT HAS
OCCURRED...OTHER AREAS COULD SEE SOME PROBLEMS AS WELL. THIS
WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
MONDAY...WE START TO FINALLY TRANSITION OUT OF THIS PATTERN
INTO A MUCH DRIER ONE. COULD STILL BE SOME SPOTTY STUFF
AROUND TO CONTEND WITH MONDAY...BUT THE REST OF THE WEEK
DEFINITELY LOOKS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AS A MUCH DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD OVER COLORADO. LW
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KPUB THROUGH 21Z SAT...THEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN VCNTY. INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR BOTH KALS AND
KCOS TONIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 8 AM SAT MORNING. SE SFC
FLOW AT KCOS WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH CIGS AND VSBY IMPROVING AFTER 16Z TOMORROW. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FORECAST SAT AFTN AFTER 18Z...MAINLY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1210 AM MDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.UPDATE...
WE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO PUSH THE AREA OF LIKELY
POPS FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT IN RESPONSE
TO RECENT RADAR TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN
THE BIG TIMBER...COLUMBUS...BILLINGS AND HYSHAM AREAS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...THOUGH FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN AND DRIFT BACK SOUTHWARD
TOWARD 12 UTC PER RECENT GUIDANCE. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN...WITH IMPRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM NM TO MT. LATEST H3 ANALYSIS SHOWS A 50 KT JET
LIFTING INTO CENTRAL WY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AT NOSE OF THIS JET
MAX HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR CPR TO THE BIG HORNS. OTHER THAN THE
ACTIVITY IN OUR FAR SOUTH...OUR AREA REMAINS DRY AS HIGH CLOUD HAS
SUPPRESSED CONVECTION TO THIS POINT...DESPITE COOLING TEMPS ALOFT
UNDERNEATH LOW TO OUR SW.
MODELS AGREE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IN OUR
EAST TONIGHT...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH EXPECTED GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE JET ALOFT. COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT. RAP HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS/NAM...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN CURRENT JET POSITION...SO HAVE COVERED EVERYWHERE FROM
BILLINGS EAST WITH A LIKELY POP TONIGHT. BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS
SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORED PER DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW. INSTABILITY
SEEMS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE EFFECTS OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON...SO DO NOT
SEE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT TONIGHT.
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN SAGGING CANADIAN JET AND
SHIFT EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...SO EXPECT
STRONGER FORCING TO EXIT OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING. SFC FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH AND WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON BACK SIDE
OF DEPARTING LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF TSTMS ON SATURDAY...THOUGH BY AFTERNOON WE
WILL SEE AFFECTS OF DRIER POST FRONTAL CANADIAN AIR AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE. THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...ALBEIT A FAIRLY
SHORT ONE...FOR DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
TOMORROWS CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST
PER UPSLOPE FLOW AND TIMING OF FROPA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE
GREATLY REDUCED BY EVENING AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE SFC RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. HAVE SCALED BACK POPS QUITE A BIT SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE LESS
THAN AN INCH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCAL AMOUNTS THAT HIGH
ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST. AS FOR BILLINGS...LOOKS LIKE ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH WITH A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IF A HEAVY
SHOWER HITS US JUST RIGHT TOMORROW. TAKE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM IS
NOTHING LIKE WE HAD LAST WEEKEND...NOR WILL WE SEE THE INCREDIBLE
PCPN AMOUNTS THAT EASTERN COLORADO HAS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. DIFFERENT SET UP ENTIRELY.
SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASED E-SE WINDS AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS OVER OUR WEST/SOUTHERN
MTNS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE COOLER...BUT WITH
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID SEPTEMBER NORMALS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED LONG TERM FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS IN CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT ON RELATIVELY
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE REMAIN...BUT
DO NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST. CHANGES CENTERED
AROUND INCREASING WINDS IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS AND WESTERN
FOOTHILLS AROUND LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER... TO RESPOND TO
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING INTO AND OUT OF THE REGION.
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BUT CHANGE IS AGAIN
ON THE HORIZON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL BE
FLATTENED BY AN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY EVENING.
MONDAY WILL SEE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROD PASSES
EASTWARD. SO FAR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEARS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...COMPARED TO RECENT WEATHER...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER TUESDAY...WITH EXPECTED INTERVENING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE FORECAST DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL FALL TO
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE
WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT JUMP BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ROUTES/TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...INCLUDING KLVM...KBIL...KSHR...AND KMLS. THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR...WITH LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/076 052/078 055/085 057/081 054/073 049/073 049/083
65/T 20/B 01/U 23/T 32/W 11/U 00/U
LVM 054/073 047/078 050/085 049/078 045/072 042/072 041/079
54/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 32/W 21/B 02/T
HDN 058/076 050/079 051/086 054/083 052/076 048/076 050/083
66/T 21/B 11/U 13/T 32/W 11/U 00/U
MLS 061/077 050/076 053/084 058/083 056/074 050/074 052/083
66/T 10/U 01/U 12/T 33/W 11/B 00/U
4BQ 056/076 047/076 050/083 053/084 053/076 047/075 051/083
66/T 31/B 11/U 11/U 22/W 11/U 00/U
BHK 057/075 046/071 047/078 053/082 054/074 047/072 049/081
56/T 20/U 01/U 11/U 33/W 21/U 00/U
SHR 055/072 048/074 048/082 051/082 050/075 044/073 047/080
36/T 32/T 21/U 11/U 33/W 11/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1045 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2013
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have lowered pops across the northern portion of
the county warning area. Radar returns continue to indicate some
showers and isolated thunderstorms over southwest Montana. With
monsoonal moisture continuing to spread north, the latest RUC
analysis and HRRR data indicate showers will persist overnight over
southwest Montana. Remainder of the forecast looks good, including
temperatures. Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Mid and high level moisture continues to move across the area.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight, mainly
south of a KHLN to KLWT line. VFR conditions persist with MVFR
conditions and gusty erratic winds possible in the vicinity of
thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 243 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2013
Friday through Sunday...Monsoonal moisture continues to move into
the area as a mid level jet continues to move northward out of
Wyoming and into Southwest and South Central Montana. Storms have
generally been scattered and short lived...producing some lightning
along with brief heavy rainfall. Slow storm movement will create
the potential for some flash flooding...however no highlites are
anticipated at this time. Slightly cooler temperatures are
expected for Saturday across the area...with another round of
showers and storms possible...mainly over Southwest Montana.
Monday will see temperatures trend back to 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal averages...with a decreasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Suk
Sunday Night through Friday...Conditions for first half of next week
looking a bit unsettled but not overly wet as large Pacific trof
with embedded shortwaves moves from the PacNW coast to ern MT by Wed
eve. Warm southwesterly flow ahead of the trof will push
temperatures into the mid-80s (about 10-12 degrees above normal) on
Mon. Then first of the shortwaves arrives Mon night, with a weak
cold front coming through the forecast area and generating scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the region. We`ll see some initial
cooling behind the front as temps on Tues cool back to the mid-70s
before a second, sharper front and colder Canadian airmass cross
east of the Divide Tues night. Forecast models are depicting broader
precipitation coverage and rainfall totals possibly reaching 0.25
inch over the central mountains before the precipitation ends Wed
morning. The more noticeable impact will the autumn-like temps, as
highs on Wed are only expected to reach the mid-/upper-60s. Breezy
west-northwest winds behind the front will make it feel a few
degrees cooler across the north-central plains. But the cool down
will be brief, as models now in better agreement than yesterday in
showing a high pressure ridge building back over the state from Wed
aftn through Fri eve, with dry conditions and gradually warming
temps. Waranauskas
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 86 53 78 50 / 10 30 20 10
CTB 86 51 76 47 / 10 10 10 10
HLN 86 54 79 51 / 30 30 30 20
BZN 84 48 78 45 / 40 40 40 30
WEY 71 38 67 35 / 60 60 40 30
DLN 78 48 75 46 / 50 50 40 30
HVR 86 54 78 46 / 10 10 10 0
LWT 83 52 74 46 / 20 40 40 20
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
ALOFT: UPR-LVL FLOW IS COMPLEX. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NEAR SLC AND WILL
REMAIN THERE THRU 00Z/SUN. A SMALL SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS OVER TX
WITH ITS RIDGE EXTENDING N THRU THE PLAINS. A SHRTWV TROF WAS OVER
WY AND LIFTING N. THIS TROF WILL CONT INTO THE DAKOTAS TNGT-SAT
AND /COMBINED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROF DROPPING THRU CNTRL CANADA/
WILL FORCE THE RIDGE TO DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT E.
SFC: HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE UPR MIDWEST...WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW WAS
OVER MT...ALONG A SFC TROF. SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SE
TO S TNGT AND THEN TO SW TOMORROW. THRU 00Z/SUN...THE HIGH WILL
MIGRATE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE TROF WILL SETTLE INTO
NRN AND WRN NEB...AS THE NEXT CANADIAN COOL FRONT PRESSES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS.
REST OF THIS AFTN: CLOUDY S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES WITH THE
THREAT OF PATCHY -RA W OF HWY 183 ENDING. FROM THE TRI-CITIES N
AND E... SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS.
RADAR TRENDS: THE HI-RES RAP AND THE 06Z WRF-NMM HAVE DONE A VERY
NICE JOB WITH THEIR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY TODAY AND CONTS TO
SUPPORT CURRENT TRENDS. THIS BAND OF -RA WILL CONT LIFTING N WHILE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS IT PROGRESSES INTO DRIER AIR. THE FCST
AREA COULD THEN BE MOSTLY DRY THE REST OF THE NGT.
THE 12Z NAM WAS WAY TOO DRY WITH ITS 12 HR QPF ENDING AT 00Z VS
REALITY.
THE WY SHRTWV TROF WILL TAKE THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT/PCPN INTO
THE DAKOTAS TNGT. THAT IS ALSO WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL BE
AIMED. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHWR OR TWO WITHIN GENTLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WINDS BACKED TO THE S ON THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING AND MSTR IN THE
850-500 MB LAYER INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS IS SUPPORTING THE
ON-GOING -RA OVER WRN/SRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...WHICH IS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE GRADIENT OF HIGHER PW. BACKING WINDS AT ALL
LVLS WILL SHOVE THE MAX PW AXIS INTO THE FCST AREA TNGT.
WHILE MUCH OF THE FCST AREA HAS SEEN THE DECENT RAINFALL IN THE
PAST 3 DAYS /MOSTLY ALONG AND S OF I-80/...THE SAD FACT IS MUCH OF
THE HIGH PW AIR MAY END UP BEING WASTED. PROSPECTS FOR RAIN ARE
NIL TNGT AND NOT LOOKING GOOD TOMORROW EXCEPT IN VERY ISOLATED
POCKETS. WHILE THE SFC TROF GETS CLOSE...AND THE TAIL END OF THE
DAKOTA/S SHRTWV TROF WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE ...THERE ISN/T
MUCH FORCING ALOFT. SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH DURING THE DAYLGT HRS
OF SAT. WE CAN HOLD OUT HOPE FOR SAT NGT.
TNGT: MAINLY CLOUDY. CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SHWR OR TWO BUT
MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY.
ONE CONCERN IS WHERE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY THIN FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. DWPTS ARE LOW THERE AND TEMPS WILL DROP OFF RATHER
SHARPLY THIS EVNG. FOR NOW ANTICIPATED THAT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
IN TIME TO ARREST DROP-OFF WITH LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM OVER THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA /MID-UPR 50S/. LOWS N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES ARE
ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SAT: M/CLOUDY. TEMPS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO CLOUD COVER
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS WERE LOWERED 1-2F. A HIGH-PW AIR MASS WILL BE
IN PLACE /2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. EXPECT SOME AREAS
MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND ISOLD-SCT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER SERN CO AND THE TX
PANHANDLE ATTM.
MLCAPE WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. INDIVIDUAL CELL MVMT WILL BE
NE AROUND 25 KTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 15-20 KTS. NO SVR WX IS
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING WITH IT OUR
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK
AND THUS AM NOT EXPECTING ANY KIND OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT RATHER
PERHAPS JUST A GENERAL LINE OR SEVERAL LINES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS KANSAS ON
SUNDAY AND WATCH OUT OVER OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER SOUTH FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OR FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE QUICK PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND AM NOW EVEN
GOING DRY FOR MONDAY ACROSS NEBRASKA ZONES WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT RANGING FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE
MID 70S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LOW END RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP AND MAY ONCE AGAIN BE BACK TO
AROUND 80 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS
THE PLAINS...BUT WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG SO NO REPEAT OF THE 90
DEGREE HEAT. EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST. WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE A BIT
BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. OVERALL THINKING
REMAINS THE SAME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS FROM 25000 TO 3500-7000
THROUGH TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS BY 15-17Z...AND
COULD GUST INTO THE LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN BY 00-01Z. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AT
KOFK 11-15Z WHEN CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO 3000-3500 FEET.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER UP OVERNIGHT...AND TRIMMED PRECIP JUST A
LITTLE BIT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. LATEST RAP DATA WOULD SUGGEST
THAT PRECIP MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL BEFORE DAYBREAK INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...THAT MAY THE CASE. ALSO HAD
SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPS MAY NOT GET AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
IN SOME SPOTS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA GIVEN SLIGHTLY THICKER CLOUD
COVER.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER OK
BUT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR NORTHEAST NV/NORTHWEST UT...AND DEEPER LOW
CENTERED IN QB. WITH 850MB HIGH PLANTED FIRMLY OVER THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...MOISTURE WAS SHUNTED WELL SOUTH AND
WEST...WITH A COOL AND DRY POCKET CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE HIGH AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS CONTRIBUTING TO
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE ROCKIES.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN MIDWEEK...WITH LINGERING NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MOST DAYS. WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIRMASS TO
OVERCOME...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRUGGLE TO
SATURATE PROFILE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. STRONGEST LIFT
WILL SKIRT NORTH OF THE CWA...ACROSS SOUTHERN SD...BUT DID RETAIN A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT IN CASE SHOWERS SLIP INTO
NORTHEAST NEB. POTENTIAL FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION-TYPE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN NORTHEAST NEB ON SATURDAY...BUT BULK OF THE CWA WILL
WAIT FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR RAIN TO FALL. WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. FRONT DOES SEEM STRONG ENOUGH...WITH ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT...TO PRODUCE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
THUNDER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS MUCAPE /ELEVATED ABOVE
850MB/ INCREASES TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CLEAR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE SPED DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT...AS MODELS AGREE ON
RAPID COOL/DRY AIR INTRUSION ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND LINGERING SHOWERS...AS WELL AS IN POST-FRONTAL COOL AIR
ON MONDAY.
DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS STRONG AND MOISTURE-RICH RETURN
FLOW ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
NOSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW MAY NOT LINGER IN THE CWA TOO LONG
AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO IA/MN...BUT SHOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE RISK PUSHES EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN SLIDES IN.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY LOOK MORE LIKELY TO BE DRY...AT LEAST WITH ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL MODEL
AGREEMENT IMPROVES.
MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
232 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING MINS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVRNGT
WITH THICK LOW CLDS NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL. TEMPS HV HELD
FAIRLY STEADY ARND 50/U40S AND EXPECT THEY WL ONLY FALL BY ANOTHER
2-3 DEGREES BY MRNG ESPECIALLY IN FINGER LKS REGION. SCTD
SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.
PREV DISCOS BLO...
1030 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE DAYSHIFT CAPTURED LAKE
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE QUITE WELL IN THE FORECAST AND THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY OBS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES NOW.
THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
BATCH OF HEAVIER SHRA ACRS SE ZONES WILL MOVG OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS UPR LOW CONTINUES IT`S SLOW NEWD TREK. ANOTHER
VORT AXIS ACRS MI WILL MOV EWD ACRS THE FCST AREA LATER TNGT.
PLENTY OF LOW LVL MSTR PERSISTS TNGT...AND CONDITIONAL LAKE
INSTABILITY DVLPS. LOW LVL FLOW WILL MEANDER ARND 340 DEG...WITH
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES LIKELY AIDING DVLPMNT OF --SHRA
OR PATCHY -DZ. BEST BEST FOR LGT PCPN APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND W OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR. GIVEN EXPECTATION OF CLDS TNGT XPCT MOST LOWS
TO BE IN THE M40S.
NAM/GFS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT WE`LL BE CLEARING OUT EARLY TMRW
MRNG...BUT GEM HOLDS ONTO THE CLDS MUCH LONGER (WELL INTO THE
AFTN...SPCLY ERN ZONES). LATEST RUC PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST OVC
SKIES AT 11Z ACRS CNTRL NY. FOR THIS REASON WE WERE LEARY OF
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS QUICK AS MOS WOULD SUGGEST. CRNT FCST
MAY STILL BE TOO QUICK IN CLEARING THINGS OUT BUT TRENDED TWDS
SLOWER IMPRVMNT TMRW. MAXES TMRW ON THE COOL SIDE...GNRLY 60-65.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RDG CRESTS OVER THE FCST AREA ON SAT NGT. POTNL FOR
PATCHY FROST SPCLY IN THE CATSKILLS AND COLDER SRN TIER VLYS. FOR
NOW WILL JUST MENTION POTNL IN THE HWO. OTRW SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A
NICE DAY WITH MAXES MODERATING INTO THE U60S AND LOWER 70S. WE`LL
PRBLY SEE A BKN CI DECK MOVG INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTN
AHEAD OF THE NXT S/WV. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A CDFNT THRU ON SUNDAY
NGT...WITH POTNL FOR 2NDRY REINFORCING SHOT ON MONDAY. CHC/LIKELY
POPS FOR SUNDAY NGT...DCRSNG TO CHC POPS ON MONDAY. BEST CHC FOR
-SHRA ON MON APPEARS TO BE IN THE MRNG...WITH DRIER AIR AND
IMPRVNG SKY COVER ACRS NRN ZONES ON MON AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE....
EXTENDED FCST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE THIS MORNING AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEK AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT. NEXT
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN
A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES ADVANCES NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY THU AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
EAST OF AREA AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LATE IN
THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN
MOVES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM
DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS AS
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE REGION AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN
CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE, WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS. AREA MAY BE
IMPACTED BY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SFC COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW STRATUS PREVAILING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD
AIR FUNNELS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...WIDESPREAD MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z...WITH PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT BOTH BGM AND
ITH IN NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOR NOW...WE EXPECT CIGS TO
LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE MIN THRESHOLDS AT BOTH ITH AND BGM.
AFTER 12Z...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL SCATTERING OUT OF LINGERING LOW STRATUS
BY 16Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY RANGING IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE... BEFORE WEAKENING AND
BECOMING CALM AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. SKC CONDITIONS TO RETURN
AREAWIDE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT ELM IN VALLEY FOG.
SUN NGT/MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MON NGT THROUGH WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CMG/RRM
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
201 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING MINS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVRNGT
WITH THICK LOW CLDS NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL. TEMPS HV HELD
FAIRLY STEADY ARND 50/U40S AND EXPECT THEY WL ONLY FALL BY ANOTHER
2-3 DEGREES BY MRNG ESPECIALLY IN FINGER LKS REGION. SCTD
SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.
PREV DISCOS BLO...
1030 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE DAYSHIFT CAPTURED LAKE
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE QUITE WELL IN THE FORECAST AND THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY OBS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES NOW.
THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
BATCH OF HEAVIER SHRA ACRS SE ZONES WILL MOVG OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS UPR LOW CONTINUES IT`S SLOW NEWD TREK. ANOTHER
VORT AXIS ACRS MI WILL MOV EWD ACRS THE FCST AREA LATER TNGT.
PLENTY OF LOW LVL MSTR PERSISTS TNGT...AND CONDITIONAL LAKE
INSTABILITY DVLPS. LOW LVL FLOW WILL MEANDER ARND 340 DEG...WITH
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES LIKELY AIDING DVLPMNT OF --SHRA
OR PATCHY -DZ. BEST BEST FOR LGT PCPN APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND W OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR. GIVEN EXPECTATION OF CLDS TNGT XPCT MOST LOWS
TO BE IN THE M40S.
NAM/GFS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT WE`LL BE CLEARING OUT EARLY TMRW
MRNG...BUT GEM HOLDS ONTO THE CLDS MUCH LONGER (WELL INTO THE
AFTN...SPCLY ERN ZONES). LATEST RUC PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST OVC
SKIES AT 11Z ACRS CNTRL NY. FOR THIS REASON WE WERE LEARY OF
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS QUICK AS MOS WOULD SUGGEST. CRNT FCST
MAY STILL BE TOO QUICK IN CLEARING THINGS OUT BUT TRENDED TWDS
SLOWER IMPRVMNT TMRW. MAXES TMRW ON THE COOL SIDE...GNRLY 60-65.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RDG CRESTS OVER THE FCST AREA ON SAT NGT. POTNL FOR
PATCHY FROST SPCLY IN THE CATSKILLS AND COLDER SRN TIER VLYS. FOR
NOW WILL JUST MENTION POTNL IN THE HWO. OTRW SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A
NICE DAY WITH MAXES MODERATING INTO THE U60S AND LOWER 70S. WE`LL
PRBLY SEE A BKN CI DECK MOVG INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTN
AHEAD OF THE NXT S/WV. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A CDFNT THRU ON SUNDAY
NGT...WITH POTNL FOR 2NDRY REINFORCING SHOT ON MONDAY. CHC/LIKELY
POPS FOR SUNDAY NGT...DCRSNG TO CHC POPS ON MONDAY. BEST CHC FOR
-SHRA ON MON APPEARS TO BE IN THE MRNG...WITH DRIER AIR AND
IMPRVNG SKY COVER ACRS NRN ZONES ON MON AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF
AREA AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LATE IN THE
PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN
MOVES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM
DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS AS
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE REGION AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN
CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE, WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS. AREA MAY BE
IMPACTED BY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SFC COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW STRATUS PREVAILING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD
AIR FUNNELS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...WIDESPREAD MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z...WITH PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT BOTH BGM AND
ITH IN NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOR NOW...WE EXPECT CIGS TO
LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE MIN THRESHOLDS AT BOTH ITH AND BGM.
AFTER 12Z...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL SCATTERING OUT OF LINGERING LOW STRATUS
BY 16Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY RANGING IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE... BEFORE WEAKENING AND
BECOMING CALM AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. SKC CONDITIONS TO RETURN
AREAWIDE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT ELM IN VALLEY FOG.
SUN NGT/MON...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MON NGT THROUGH WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1218 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE FINGER LAKES. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING MINS UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVRNGT
WITH THICK LOW CLDS NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL. TEMPS HV HELD
FAIRLY STEADY ARND 50/U40S AND EXPECT THEY WL ONLY FALL BY ANOTHER
2-3 DEGREES BY MRNG ESPECIALLY IN FINGER LKS REGION. SCTD
SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.
PREV DISCOS BLO...
1030 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE DAYSHIFT CAPTURED LAKE
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE QUITE WELL IN THE FORECAST AND THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY OBS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES NOW.
THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
BATCH OF HEAVIER SHRA ACRS SE ZONES WILL MOVG OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID/LATE AFTN AS UPR LOW CONTINUES IT`S SLOW NEWD TREK. ANOTHER
VORT AXIS ACRS MI WILL MOV EWD ACRS THE FCST AREA LATER TNGT.
PLENTY OF LOW LVL MSTR PERSISTS TNGT...AND CONDITIONAL LAKE
INSTABILITY DVLPS. LOW LVL FLOW WILL MEANDER ARND 340 DEG...WITH
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES LIKELY AIDING DVLPMNT OF --SHRA
OR PATCHY -DZ. BEST BEST FOR LGT PCPN APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND W OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR. GIVEN EXPECTATION OF CLDS TNGT XPCT MOST LOWS
TO BE IN THE M40S.
NAM/GFS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT WE`LL BE CLEARING OUT EARLY TMRW
MRNG...BUT GEM HOLDS ONTO THE CLDS MUCH LONGER (WELL INTO THE
AFTN...SPCLY ERN ZONES). LATEST RUC PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST OVC
SKIES AT 11Z ACRS CNTRL NY. FOR THIS REASON WE WERE LEARY OF
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS QUICK AS MOS WOULD SUGGEST. CRNT FCST
MAY STILL BE TOO QUICK IN CLEARING THINGS OUT BUT TRENDED TWDS
SLOWER IMPRVMNT TMRW. MAXES TMRW ON THE COOL SIDE...GNRLY 60-65.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RDG CRESTS OVER THE FCST AREA ON SAT NGT. POTNL FOR
PATCHY FROST SPCLY IN THE CATSKILLS AND COLDER SRN TIER VLYS. FOR
NOW WILL JUST MENTION POTNL IN THE HWO. OTRW SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A
NICE DAY WITH MAXES MODERATING INTO THE U60S AND LOWER 70S. WE`LL
PRBLY SEE A BKN CI DECK MOVG INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTN
AHEAD OF THE NXT S/WV. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A CDFNT THRU ON SUNDAY
NGT...WITH POTNL FOR 2NDRY REINFORCING SHOT ON MONDAY. CHC/LIKELY
POPS FOR SUNDAY NGT...DCRSNG TO CHC POPS ON MONDAY. BEST CHC FOR
-SHRA ON MON APPEARS TO BE IN THE MRNG...WITH DRIER AIR AND
IMPRVNG SKY COVER ACRS NRN ZONES ON MON AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF
AREA AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LATE IN THE
PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN
MOVES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM
DURING THE PERIOD AS FLOW SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS AS
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE REGION AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS NEARBY SOUTHERN
CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE, WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS. AREA MAY BE
IMPACTED BY WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SFC COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
BOTTOM LINE AT NY SITES WILL BE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAUSING
FUEL ALTERNATES AND AT BGM AND ITH MAYBE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. KAVP
A LITTLE HIGHER CIG BETWEEN 2K AND 4K FEET. IMPROVING TO VFR BY
SAT NOON.
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH A COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS COLD FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND FINGER LAKES WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED TONIGHT.
THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KBGM/KITH LATE TONIGHT AND SOME IFR CIGS
EVEN THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS
WAS INCLUDED IN JUST THE KITH TERMINAL THIS EVENING. KAVP WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND WILL PROBABLY BOUNCE BETWEEN HIGH
MVFR AND VFR TONIGHT.
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 KTS AROUND
14Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT THROUGH SUN...VFR...BUT MAYBE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/IFR
AT KELM.
SUN NGT/MON...SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MON NGT THROUGH WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY...
SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM FRIDAY...
REST OF TONIGHT: QUIET AND COOL BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HAVING PUSHED
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA... STRETCHING ACROSS SE NC... WHILE
SECONDARY TROUGHS WERE PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER NE NC AND OVER NRN VA.
THE 850 MB TROUGH IS SEEN ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DROPPING SE
THROUGH CENTRAL NC... WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AT 850-750 MB. MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP INDICATE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT TO KEEP A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA... THICKEST AND MOST
EXPANSIVE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE LOWER LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS
DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE ATTENDING THE AREA OF GREATEST LIFT.
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING
ROANOKE RAPIDS / ROCKY MOUNT / WILSON / GOLDSBORO... HOWEVER THE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER APPEARS TOO DRY FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING TO SURVIVE
TO THE GROUND... ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO FALL
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TEMPS ARE ON CLOSE PACE WITH FORECAST TEMPS...
AND SEE NO REASON TO ALTER EARLIER FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM 54
NORTHEAST TO 63 SOUTHEAST. WITH THE LOWEST 50-100 MB REMAINING
FAIRLY MIXED AS THE COLDER/DENSER AIR SPILLS IN UNIFORMLY THROUGH
THIS LAYER... WE SHOULD SEE PERIODIC GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH
OVERNIGHT. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY WILL BE AN ABSOLUTE PICTURESQUE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
A MODERATING CANADIAN PARENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SNEAK PEEK OF AUTUMN WITH PRIOR NIGHTS
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAVING THICKNESSES STARTING OUT A GOOD 30 METERS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER. FULL SUN THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING AND A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY BROKEN AT TIME STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 4 TO 6KFT WHICH COULD
IMPEDE TEMPERATURES A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
A DRY AIRMASS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION SAT
NIGHT. RESULTING WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE SOME LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA...BUT NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD
ARC NWD AS FAR AS THE TRIAD. SO WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO CLOUD COVER...LOWS COULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH/NE TO LOWER/MID 50S NEAR THE SC BORDER...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE MID
40S FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...
COOL TO START THE WEEK... THEN WARMER AND STILL NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
IN THE FORECAST...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... LIMITED INSTABILITY... LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN... AND UPPER SUPPORT ALL POINT TOWARD ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT (AFTERNOON
AND EVENING). THEREFORE THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST.
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA MONDAY EVENING... WITH
GOOD CAA INTO THE REGION FROM THE NNE. MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NE WINDS 10-15 MPH SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE 60 IN
THE SOUTH... WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH. TUESDAY... THE HIGH
PRESSURE (1028+ MB) IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NY/PA SOUTHWARD INTO
NC/SC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH DRIER AIR WILL EXTEND WELL
SOUTHWARD INTO NC/SC BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS 75-80
EXPECTED.
WED-THU... THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
SOUTH TO A POSITION OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
ENSURE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS... AND MOSTLY SUNNY WARM DAYS.
LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS WARMING FROM THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY INTO THE
MID 80S THURSDAY.
FRIDAY... UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW TO RETREAT FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER DAY OF SUNNY WARM CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED.
LOWS 60-65. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH
OR NORTHEASTERLY AT 8-13 KT BY 12Z...WITH SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO ~20
KT POSSIBLE AT THE FAY/RDU/RWI TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AT FAY BETWEEN
09-15Z WHERE ONGOING PRESSURE RISES WILL BETTER COINCIDE WITH
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE ENE/EAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT WEAKENS AND DIURNAL HEATING
WANES.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY IN ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO
WHETHER OR NOT BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN NC (FAY TERMINAL) SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE WELL
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. AREAS OF FOG OR SUB-VFR CEILINGS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT EARLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ASSOC/W A LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AGAIN. EXPECT A FRONTAL PASSAGE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY EVENING AND THIS MORNING...I.E. DRY/VFR WITH A SHORT
PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT
AND TUE MORNING. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
152 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY...
SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM FRIDAY...
REST OF TONIGHT: QUIET AND COOL BUT WITH SOME CLOUDS. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HAVING PUSHED
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA... STRETCHING ACROSS SE NC... WHILE
SECONDARY TROUGHS WERE PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER NE NC AND OVER NRN VA.
THE 850 MB TROUGH IS SEEN ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DROPPING SE
THROUGH CENTRAL NC... WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AT 850-750 MB. MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP INDICATE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT TO KEEP A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA... THICKEST AND MOST
EXPANSIVE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE LOWER LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS
DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE ATTENDING THE AREA OF GREATEST LIFT.
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING
ROANOKE RAPIDS / ROCKY MOUNT / WILSON / GOLDSBORO... HOWEVER THE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER APPEARS TOO DRY FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING TO SURVIVE
TO THE GROUND... ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO FALL
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TEMPS ARE ON CLOSE PACE WITH FORECAST TEMPS...
AND SEE NO REASON TO ALTER EARLIER FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM 54
NORTHEAST TO 63 SOUTHEAST. WITH THE LOWEST 50-100 MB REMAINING
FAIRLY MIXED AS THE COLDER/DENSER AIR SPILLS IN UNIFORMLY THROUGH
THIS LAYER... WE SHOULD SEE PERIODIC GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH
OVERNIGHT. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY WILL BE AN ABSOLUTE PICTURESQUE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
A MODERATING CANADIAN PARENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SNEAK PEEK OF AUTUMN WITH PRIOR NIGHTS
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAVING THICKNESSES STARTING OUT A GOOD 30 METERS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER. FULL SUN THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S NW TO UPPER 70S SE...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING AND A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY BROKEN AT TIME STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 4 TO 6KFT WHICH COULD
IMPEDE TEMPERATURES A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
A DRY AIRMASS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT
IN COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION SAT
NIGHT. RESULTING WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE SOME LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA...BUT NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD
ARC NWD AS FAR AS THE TRIAD. SO WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO CLOUD COVER...LOWS COULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH/NE TO LOWER/MID 50S NEAR THE SC BORDER...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER SPOTS TO FALL INTO THE MID
40S FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIRLY WEAK AND MORE ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...FIRST ON MONDAY EVENING AND THEN A POTENTIALLY WETTER
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON
FRIDAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS.
REGARDING THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BUT FAVORABLE
DIURNAL TIMING AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A SEA BREEZE FRONT IN
THE EAST MAKE SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS VIEWED IN BUFKIT SHOW DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
UP TO 800 MB BUT VERY DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIMITING THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON AT SITES WHERE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER BY PEAK HEATING. SLIGHTLY MORE CAPE
(BUT STILL LESS THAN 100 J/KG) WILL BE AVAILABLE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA. ALL IN ALL EXPECTING A NON-EVENT WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA.
THE SECOND...AND POTENTIALLY MORE CONCERNING SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW LOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...INTO THE CAROLINAS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH COULD HELP TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER IS SHOWING A
LESS ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM WITHOUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW AT THIS TIME
AND FRANKLY IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN. FOR NOW WILL
INCLUDE INCREASING CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S...VERY SEASONAL
FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH
OR NORTHEASTERLY AT 8-13 KT BY 12Z...WITH SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO ~20
KT POSSIBLE AT THE FAY/RDU/RWI TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AT FAY BETWEEN
09-15Z WHERE ONGOING PRESSURE RISES WILL BETTER COINCIDE WITH
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE ENE/EAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT WEAKENS AND DIURNAL HEATING
WANES.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY IN ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO
WHETHER OR NOT BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN NC (FAY TERMINAL) SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE WELL
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. AREAS OF FOG OR SUB-VFR CEILINGS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT EARLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ASSOC/W A LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AGAIN. EXPECT A FRONTAL PASSAGE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY EVENING AND THIS MORNING...I.E. DRY/VFR WITH A SHORT
PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT
AND TUE MORNING. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
100 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 905 PM FRIDAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WVI...LOOPS
ILLUSTRATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
VIA WVI...DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS PUSHED ACROSS
THE ILM CWA. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE FA INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO STICK AROUND UNTIL THE
UPPER TROF AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE FA...WHICH IS PROGGED TO OCCUR
DURING SATURDAY EARLY ON WITHIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A
RESULT...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH UPSTREAM SFC OBS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATING A
RATHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SC AND AC DEVELOPING BEHIND THE NE
SURGE. AS FOR POPS...THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED TSTORM THRU MID-EVENING OTHERWISE NO POPS. MODEL UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT CONVECTIVE CAP/LID IN THE
MID-LEVELS PREVENTING CU FROM DEVELOPING IN THE VERTICAL DURING
THE PRE-DAWN SAT HRS. THE NE SURGE WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR...IE. LOWER DEWPOINTS...ADVECTING ACROSS THE
FA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURGE EXTENDS BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT
AND ROCKY MOUNT...AND SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA BEFORE
DAYBREAK SAT. THE CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET WITH
LITTLE TO NO TWEAKING NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AT THE SURFACE
WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY TO THE DELMARVA
COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WINDS WILL START OUT
NORTHERLY BUT WILL VEER AROUND AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST BECOMING
MORE ON SHORE AND EASTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AS H5
TROUGH CLEARS THE COAST LEAVING A DEEPER NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
REINFORCING IT. THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
THEREFORE BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BUT MOISTURE PROFILES AND
SOUNDING DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
REINFORCED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND
FEET THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS SAT AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS DO SHOW WARMING ABOVE A
VERY SHALLOW COOL LAYER WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH ON SHORE FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWS SOME SPOTTY PCP...MAINLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP BELOW MOSTLY CLOUDY AT ANY
GIVEN TIME PERIOD AND KEEP POPS OUT OF FORECAST.
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE UPON THE AREA
WITH TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT READINGS CLOSER TO 80 BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S MOST
PLACES WITH TRADITIONALLY COOLER SPOTS DROPPING JUST BELOW 60. INLAND
AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MUCH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE
MID 50S. GRADIENT WILL RUN FROM NW TO SE WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINT
TEMPS CLOSER TO WINYAH BAY. THEREFORE EXPECT LOWEST TEMPS INLAND. THE
MOIST EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE WATERS COULD AFFECT THE CLOUD COVER
AND IN TURN WOULD INFLUENCE THE TEMPS DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER WE GET.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN OVERALL COOL AND DRY WEEK WILL BE BRACKETED
BY WEAK COLD FRONTS...CREATING THE ONLY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THE PERIOD.
MONDAY STARTS WITH CONTINUED 5H TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS TEMPS CLIMB TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES AND COMBINE WITH LOWERED THICKNESSES BENEATH THE 5H TROUGH.
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE MUCH
CONVECTION...BUT SCHC IS WARRANTED DURING THE AFTN/EVE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...AND THEN AREA-WIDE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. AGAIN...EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST...BUT
INCREASING MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT RAISES PWATS TO
1.6-1.7 INCHES WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCHC SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TUE-FRI...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR AND TEMPS AROUND OR BELOW CLIMO...RISING SLOWLY TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT OVERALL PRECIP POTENTIAL AND
WILL KEEP POP SILENT FOR D7.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY OFFSHORE.
MODELS INDICATES LOW/MID LEVEL CIGS (ABOVE 3000 FT) WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT MVFR CIGS
COULD DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
AND INLAND TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN SPEED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
AFTERNOON MAINLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS NEAR CAPE
LOOKOUT AND THE LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL I AM INCREASING
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO 15-20 KNOTS.
THIS IS THE LONG-AWAITED SURGE MOVING SOUTH AHEAD OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD WITH A SHORT PERIOD CHOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 930 PM FOLLOWS...
SCEC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS DURING SATURDAY. THE COLD
FRONT MOVED SOUTH OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FOCUS TURNS TOWARD THE NE SURGE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS
INDICATE THE NE DRY AIR SURGE TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE ILM WATERS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE SAT PRE-DAWN HRS. CURRENTLY THE
LEADING EDGE WAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WITH THE ILM
WATERS LYING BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE 1020+ MB HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...THE SFC PG WILL ALSO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NE SURGE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF
THE ILM WATERS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND FOR WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THIS EVENING...WILL BUILD TO 3 TO
5 FT BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS...SLIGHTLY LAGGING ACROSS
THE ILM SC WATERS. THE 3 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL
LIKELY DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM...WITH A CONTINUED UNDERLYING 1 TO
2 FOOT 8 TO 9 SECOND EASTERLY GROUND SWELL REMAINING PRESENT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AS IT SHIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST REMAINING NORTH OF WATERS. SURGE OF
COOL AND DRY AIR ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE WINDS UP AROUND 15 KTS
AND CLOSER TO 20 KTS IN OUTER WATERS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS.
INCLUDED A PRECAUTIONARY SCEC HEADLINE FOR SAT FORECAST. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS AIR MASS SLOWLY MODIFIES AND
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SEE A RANGE OF 3-5 FEET
SATURDAY FALLING DOWN TO 2-4 FEET SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH
MANY COMPASS DIRECTIONS ON MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...AND CROSSES THE WATERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL RIDGE
DOWN THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...CREATING A PINCHED GRADIENT AND
INCREASED NE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
TUESDAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING
WEDNESDAY TO 10-15 KTS. THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UPWARD
WITH A STRONG NE WIND WAVE CONTRIBUTION TO THE SPECTRUM. SEAS OF
2-3 FT MONDAY WILL RISE QUICKLY TO 4-5 FT TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING
OFF TO 3-4 FT ON WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS MAY
REQUIRE A SCEC DURING MUCH OF TUESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
409 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BUILD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERRED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING A STRATOCU DECK OFF OF LAKE ERIE
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RUC HAS BEEN
DOING A GOOD JOB OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEPICTION OF 850MB MOISTURE
WHICH SEEMS TO BE A GOOD PROXY FOR THE CLEARING TREND APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND EXPECT THIS TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING AND BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. SOME DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN EXTREME NW OHIO TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NW
PA. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OFF OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE A GOOD RECIPE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE DEWPOINTS DOWN
WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST. PATCHY
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN
NW PA OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING THE COVERAGE TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE WEST ON
SUNDAY IN FAVOR OF MORE CLOUDS. VERY DRY AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
OVERCOME IN THE LOW LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME SPRINKLES OR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN NW OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERD
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE HIGHER MOISTURE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST. DRY AIR AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION ALREADY ARRIVING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SO SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO A QUICK END EXCEPT
IN THE SNOW BELT WHERE WE WILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE LOW AND MID 60S AGAIN.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS NEXT
FRONT AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. EXPECTING LOW LEVELS
TO DRY OUT ENOUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
TO BE WINDING DOWN. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOW 40S
ON MONDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED LOCALS INTO THE UPPER 30S IN NW PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEDNESDAY AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS BECAUSE OF
SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR JUST SHOWERS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. JUST MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE POPS. FOR THE TIME BEING KEPT THE POPS EITHER 30 OR
40 PERCENT. THAT SEEMS REAL GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY
WHEN THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO GET BETTER AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THE TIMING AND TREND CONTINUES. KEPT CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE CLOUDS GO
AWAY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 20C TO START AND BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWN
TO AROUND 15C. THIS DIFFERENCE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS
GOING. HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW SOON WILL THAT HAPPEN. BASED ON THE
SATELLITE PICTURES AND USING THE RAP MODEL WILL SCATTER THE CLOUDS
OUT BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW COULD SPREAD A
LITTLE CLOUDS TOWARD TOL AND FDY...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED OR FEW AND VFR. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY. SOME CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY START
COMING IN.
OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE TODAY. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. THE TREND FOR THE WINDS AND WAVES IS DEFINITELY
DOWN. BASED ON THE 3 AM MARINE OBSERVATIONS WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE NEARSHORE FORECAST WILL HAVE 2 TO 4 FEET TO
START AND THEN SUBSIDING AS THE MORNING AND DAY GOES ON. THE RIP
CURRENT RISK IS CLOSE TO MODERATE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THE
RISK WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY SUNDAY MORNING RETURNING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MAINLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
204 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUDS A BIT BUT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK OF
CONTINUING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. TAPERED POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM CHANCE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT EAST GIVEN
THE CONTINUING CLOUD COVER.
ORIGINAL..COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE LAKES HAS GENERATED SOME
LAKE EFFECT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHERLY FLOW HAS GENERATED A
LAKE HURON FETCH AND AS EXPECTED MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF CLE AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR MANSFIELD. THE
FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS HOW LONG TO HANG ON TO THESE
SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM DO NOT MOVE THE THERMAL TROF
EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFT 06Z. 12Z BUFKIT DATA KEEPS CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA UNTIL NEAR 12Z SAT. THE WILD CARD IS THE
DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS APPARENT BY LOOKING AT
THE SATELLITE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY
AIR INTRUSION IS QUICKLY ERODING THE CLOUDS. MOS GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING. IT IS MY
EXPERIENCE THAT THE MODELS ARE OFTEN TOO QUICK TO MOVE LAKE EFFECT
OUT OF THE AREA. THE DRY AIR IS A CONCERN AND MAY LIMIT THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO DIURNAL.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE FLOW AND THE FACT WE ALREADY HAVE
SHOWERS...I AM INCLINED TO KEEP SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER MOST
OF NORTHERN OH/NW PA THIS EVENING. I WILL SLOWLY TAPER THE SHOWERS
LATE THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. THERE
WAS SOME CONCERN OVER NORTHWEST OHIO THAT PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR
IF THE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT BUT I DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO GET THE COLD. I WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN NW OH
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH NO MENTION OF FROST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. ANY
LINGERING EFFECTS OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY AS DRY AIR AND A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. OVERALL THE
FRONT IS VERY STRONG AND I DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THE FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN INTO NW
OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I SEE NO STRONG REASON TO PULL BACK THIS
THREAT SO I WILL LEAVE IT. I WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALL AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY HOLD ON TO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NW
PA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM TODAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN. THE
AREA COULD SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THINGS WILL EVENTUALLY DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE CLOUDS GO
AWAY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 20C TO START AND BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWN
TO AROUND 15C. THIS DIFFERENCE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS
GOING. HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW SOON WILL THAT HAPPEN. BASED ON THE
SATELLITE PICTURES AND USING THE RAP MODEL WILL SCATTER THE CLOUDS
OUT BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW COULD SPREAD A
LITTLE CLOUDS TOWARD TOL AND FDY...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED OR FEW AND VFR. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY. SOME CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY START
COMING IN.
OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
GOING AS IS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THE WEEKEND WILL
BE FAIRLY QUIET. SPEEDS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO
15 KNOT RANGE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY THE
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
NORTH. COULD COME CLOSE TO NEEDING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT AT THAT
TIME. ANOTHER HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PULLS OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET/TK
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1127 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE HEADING SLOWLY OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAD TO DO A QUICK UPDATE ON TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GIVEN THE
EXTENT AND THICKNESS OF THE STRATOCU. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ARE STILL OVERHEAD
AND ONLY SLOWLY PULLING TOWARDS OUR EAST. 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND -18C ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO FORM UNDERNEATH THE
INVERSION. THE THICKER CLOUDS HAVE ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN EXPECTED THIS LATE IN THE MORNING SO WE HAVE KNOCKED DOWN
TODAYS HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES. STILL EXPECT A GRADUAL THINNING AND LIFTING THE STRATOCU
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OFF. WE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
LOSE THE GUSTIER NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE INVERSION ALOFT DEEPENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PARK ITSELF ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND GO CALM IN MANY SPOTS. IN THE
MID-LEVELS, A FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE UPPER PLAINS TO
THE EAST COAST. WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING,
BUT THEY AREN`T EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MANY LOCALES. METRO
PHILLY WILL PROBABLY SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S. SOME UPPER 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME MID 30S, BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. THAT SAID, WE`LL MENTION
SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS, BUT NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST
OF NOW, THE THINKING IS THERE SIMPLY WON`T BE ENOUGH REAL ESTATE IN
THE MID 30S TO NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SUBDUED LONG TERM FOR OUR CWA WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SANDWICHED AROUND TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE GFS INITIALIZATION
UPSTREAM LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB AT 500MB WITH BOTH
MODELS EARNING A SPLIT DECISION AT 850MB AND 925MB. IF ANYTHING THE
CURRENT TROF IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND TRENDING SLOWER THAN WHAT THE
GFS HAS.
WE SHOULD START SEEING SOME CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. NOT SURE ABOUT ITS THICKNESS, BUT ENOUGH
THERE BASED ON EXPECTED 925MB TEMPS TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STAT
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. WE WERE PRETTY CLOSE TO CONSISTENCY ALSO. WINDS
OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT.
WHILE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THUNDER FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND THE FCST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS, WELL, MUTED ABOVE
850MB, OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250MB JET PLUS
MODERATE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE. THE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
SOME CAPPING, BUT WOULD BELIEVE THAT THE FCST SHORT WAVES SHOULD
ERODE THESE MORE THAN THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. OVERALL WE BELIEVE,
THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE, ALBEIT ON THE LIGHT
SIDE, PRECIPITATION AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA. OUR POPS
ARE HIGHER THAN ANY OF THE STAT GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF TIMING
DIFFERENCES (CENTERED CLOSE TO 12Z FOR BEST POPS), WE KEPT POPS AS
CHANCE FOR NOW (THE PCPN ITSELF LOOKS LIKELY).
WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE BULLISH, ITS RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY HAS
NOT BEEN THERE WITH THE AFTERNOON SHORT WAVE. THE LATEST ECMWF
OFFERS A COMPROMISE AND WPC WAS NOT THRILLED WITH THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM/UKMET SOLUTIONS. WE DID ADD A LOW CHANCE IN FOR THIS
FEATURE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. WOULD THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS UP ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER STAT
GUIDANCE. MONDAY READS LIKE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY. IF WE CAN GET A
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE, TEMPS WILL REBOUND. THE DAYS LENGTH IS NOT WHAT
IT USED TO BE, SO WE WENT A BIT CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS.
IT WILL GET COOLER ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AGAIN. WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. MODELS
ARE FORECASTING IT TO BE PRETTY DRY, BUT WE DO START HAVING PROBLEMS
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS ONCE SEPTEMBER ROLLS AROUND. AS THE
HIGH MOVES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT, ALL DOUBTS WILL CEASE. TUESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
OUR AIR MASS WILL START MODIFYING FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH (OR LESS) BARK WITH A WEAK WARM
FRONT, SO WE DID REMOVE THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WE KEPT THE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THAT FRONT AND FOR FRIDAY
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING MORE
INSTABILITY WITH THIS NEXT FRONT, AND WE DID ADD THE MENTION OF
THUNDER. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN AFTER A CHILLY MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. THE STRATOCU ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND LIFT A BIT BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE RELAXING A BIT.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT
MAYBE SOME HIGH CIRRUS TOWARD MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. SOME PATCHY MORNING GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT RURAL
AIRPORTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY PRODUCING MVFR
CONDITIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR. SOME PATCHY MORNING GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT RURAL AIRPORTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
CANCELLED THE SCA EARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. BUOY 44009 HAS
BEEN BOUNCING AROUND QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING THOUGH NEVER
ACTUALLY REACHING 5 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 5 FEET MAY BE
REACHED, BRIEFLY, ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS
DOWNWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN 2 TO 4 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME 20 KT GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO BE TAME LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD COMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT. STAT GUIDANCE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH
THE WINDS AND THE WAVE WATCH MODEL BRINGS SEAS TO THE 5 FOOT
THRESHOLD ON THE OCEAN. LESS OF AN OVERALL CHANCE ON DELAWARE BAY.
ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES CLOSER, FIRST THE CHANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ON TUESDAY DAY SHOULD CEASE FOLLOWED BY
THE SWELLS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1019 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE... VERY WEAK RIDGE AXIS LIES ACROSS SOUTH-CTRL FL THIS
MORNING...SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH FL. SFC
METARS AND PROFILER DATA SHOW A DEARTH OF WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
0-2KM BLYR. MORNING RAOBS INDICATE MEAN PWAT HAS RECOVERED A BIT
OVER FRIDAY...WITH VALUES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE 1.6" TO 1.7"
RANGE...NOT TOO FAR FROM THE MEDIAN FOR MID-SEP. WATER VAPOR
AND RUC ANLYS FIELDS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SERN CONUS
DROPPING SEWD...WHILE THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH IS
LIFTING OUT OVER THE WRN ATLC.
EARLY 12Z NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE ACROSS FL
OVER THE NEXT H24 AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WASHES OUT WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO FL. SIMILAR TO FRI...
THIS SETUP APPEARS TO FAVOR SOMEWHAT OF A LATER START TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION (PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS LATE) WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES INLAND COMPARED TO THE COAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
EASTWARD DRIFT TO LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. MADE SOME
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO POPS TO TRIM BACK COASTAL/MARINE POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE (15-20). OTHERWISE...FORECAST WILL REMAIN LARGELY INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...MADE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO TAFS TO SHOW A LITTLE
EARLIER START TO DIURNAL CONVECTION (PREVAILING VCTS FOR A FEW HRS)
OVER THE INTERIOR 22Z-02Z). CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY VC TERM FOR
THE COASTAL AERODROMES...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR EARLY-MID AFTN
RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY POTENTIAL AMDS.
&&
.MARINE...VERY LIGHT FLOW INVOF RIDGE AXIS WITH SEAS 2FT OR LESS.
LOOKS AS THOUGH WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE IS RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TOO
HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. PLAN TO SHAVE BACK ACCORDINGLY.
&&
FORECAST UPDATES...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX/RADAR...BRAGAW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013/
SUNDAY...MID LVL TROUGH OFF THE SE ATLC COAST WILL BEING TO SLOWLY
NE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC AND ESE LOW LVL FLOW.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN SECTIONS WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNINGS STORMS WILL MOVE INLAND TOWARD
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NRN SECTIONS AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS N CSTL SECTIONS WHERE WILL
ADVERTISE 20 PCT. HIGHS UPPER 80S COAST TO LWR 90S INTERIOR.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MOIST ONSHORE LOW LVL FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
AN ONSHORE MOVING SHOWER OR TSTM ALONG COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WILL LIMIT SHOWER/TSTM CHCS FOR THE INTERIOR IN THE EVENING.
MONDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OFF THE SC COAST WITH ONSHORE
ESE LOW LVL FLOW. MOISTURE LVLS WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS WHERE 40 PCT SHOWER/TSTM CHCS ARE EXPECTED WITH 30 PCT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL AGAIN GO
WITH LOWER POPS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST WHERE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVING INLAND AND SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE LVLS ARE EXPECTED.
TUE-THU...MID WEEK FORECAST LOOKS A BIT WETTER PER LATEST 00Z
GFS/ECMWF RUNS WITH DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING AND CONTINUED INCREASING
ONSHORE LOW LVL FLOW. APPEARS SOME CONNECTION TO THE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND FL STRAITS MAY TRY TO MAKE SOME
INROADS NWD TWD E CENTRAL FL...ESPEC BY WED. WILL BRING POPS INTO
THE MID SCATTERED RANGE 40-50 PCT FOR MID WEEK WITH ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ALONG THE EAST COAST IN SPOTS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MID
WEEK WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. HIGHS UPPER 80S COAST TO
AROUND 90 INTERIOR.
FRI-SAT...GFS/ECMWF ARE DIFFERING ON THE EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF NEXT
MID LVL WAVE NEAR FLORIDA WITH GENERAL TRENDS PUTTING E CENTRAL FL
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID-UPR LVL TROUGH AND SOME DRYING COMPARED
TO MID WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE 30 PCT RANGE TO START NEXT
WEEKEND...CLOSE TO GFS MOS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH PATCHES OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG...MIFG...AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY. SOME SITES WENT BRIEFLY IFR AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY
THEN QUICKLY BECAME VFR AS THE SUN CLIMBED HIGHER IN THE SKY BURNING
OFF THE LOW CLOUDS. TEMPO MVFR MAINLY INTERIOR SITES 20Z-02Z IN THE
VICINITY OF STORMS. VFR AFTER 15/04Z WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT
SEAS WITH AN 8 SECOND PERIOD.
SAT...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMES EASTERLY 10 KNOTS
AT THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT.
SEAS 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.
SAT NIGHT...WINDS 10 KNOTS BECOME EAST OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS.
SUN-WED...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO MID WEEK TO 10-15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS 2-4 FT (MAINLY IN AN EAST SWELL) ON SUNDAY GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF ONSHORE MOVING MARINE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY TUE/WED OF NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 90 75 90 76 / 30 20 20 20
MCO 93 74 92 74 / 40 20 30 20
MLB 89 76 89 78 / 30 20 30 30
VRB 89 76 90 77 / 30 20 30 30
LEE 93 74 92 75 / 30 20 30 20
SFB 93 75 92 76 / 30 20 20 20
ORL 93 76 92 76 / 40 20 30 20
FPR 89 75 89 77 / 30 20 40 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
914 AM MDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR PPT TRENDS CURRENTLY ON RADAR AND
EXTRAPOLATED IN THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS.
FRONT CURRENTLY RUNS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA AND A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG IT IN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...AND
GARFIELD COUNTY WITH SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH. WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AND LEAVE THE AREA BY 6PM TODAY.
850MB WINDS WERE WEAKER IN THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING THAN FORECAST
IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER...THIS IS MOSTLY A RESULT OF FRONTAL
TIMING...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MODELS HAVE. MID-
LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES...AND STILL EXPECT
LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO VERIFY. SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MAYBE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN TODAY...AND NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
NEED TO DECIDE IF AN ADVISORY FOR WIND IS NEEDED FOR THE LAKE FOR
THOSE DAYS. MARTIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE
STATE WILL PUSH OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER WORDING FOR THE
SOUTHERN AREAS FOR TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK DOWN OVER THE DAKOTA/S TONIGHT KEEPING
NORTHEAST MONTANA MAINLY CLEAR...HOWEVER NOT AS COLD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT. STILL ON THE DRY SIDE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD DOMINATE.
NOW FOR THE FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. A COOLER AIR-MASS TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY KICKING
UP WINDS WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING DOWN OF GUSTY
WINDS FROM ALOFT. THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND THE
INVERSION WILL SET UP AROUND 3000FT WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO LOWER
THE WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WIND ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST...ALOFT THERE WILL BE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GENERALLY LIGHT WIND WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL
TO MIX DOWN. HOWEVER THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD
WITH THE LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TIGHTEN...WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY AS TODAY...BUT THE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR
NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A SECOND LAKE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL TODAY/S EVENT IS OVER. DO FEEL THE SOUTHEAST WIND WITH THE
FULL FETCH OF THE MAIN BODY OF WATER ON FORT PECK LAKE WILL CREATE
ROUGH WATERS FOR THE FACE OF THE DAM AND THE NORTHWEST SHORELINE
BAYS AND COASTLINE. PROTON
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
LEVEL-TROUGH PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES AND THROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SHORT-WAVE RIDGES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE THE DAY-TO-DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER
EXPERIENCED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA.
TIMING AND INTENSITY DISCREPANCIES STILL ABOUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT.
BY DAY 6...MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER.
OVERALL A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT A GRADUAL SLIDE INTO A
MORE AUTUMN-LIKE PATTERN. BMICKELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT
KGDV AND KSDY TODAY. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE ALSO EXISTS AT KOLF FOR A
QUICK PASSING SHOWER. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. A
FEW NEAR MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME AT KGDV AND KSDY
WITH THE MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL EXPECT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS. MALIAWCO
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
929 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BUILD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THE QUICKER CLEARING THIS MORNING. MAY
STILL HAVE A FEW AFTERNOON CU DOTTING THE SKY...BUT NOT MUCH.
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL HIGH FOR THE DAY STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING A
STRATOCU DECK OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RUC HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DEPICTION OF 850MB MOISTURE WHICH SEEMS TO BE A GOOD PROXY FOR
THE CLEARING TREND APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EXPECT THIS TO SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AND BRING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS. SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD WILL OCCUR
THIS MORNING WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN EXTREME NW
OHIO TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NW PA. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OFF OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE A GOOD RECIPE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE DEWPOINTS DOWN
WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST. PATCHY
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN
NW PA OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING THE COVERAGE TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE WEST ON
SUNDAY IN FAVOR OF MORE CLOUDS. VERY DRY AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
OVERCOME IN THE LOW LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME SPRINKLES OR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN NW OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE HIGHER MOISTURE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST. DRY AIR AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION ALREADY ARRIVING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SO SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO A QUICK END EXCEPT
IN THE SNOW BELT WHERE WE WILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE LOW AND MID 60S AGAIN.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS NEXT
FRONT AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. EXPECTING LOW LEVELS
TO DRY OUT ENOUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
TO BE WINDING DOWN. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOW 40S
ON MONDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED LOCALS INTO THE UPPER 30S IN NW PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEDNESDAY AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS BECAUSE OF
SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR JUST SHOWERS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. JUST MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE POPS. FOR THE TIME BEING KEPT THE POPS EITHER 30 OR
40 PERCENT. THAT SEEMS REAL GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY
WHEN THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO GET BETTER AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THE TIMING AND TREND CONTINUES. KEPT CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE CLOUDS GO
AWAY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 18C TO START AND BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWN
TO AROUND 15C. THIS DIFFERENCE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS
GOING. HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW SOON WILL THAT HAPPEN. BASED ON THE
SATELLITE PICTURES AND USING THE RAP MODEL WILL SCATTER THE CLOUDS
OUT BY NOON. SOME HEATING THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE THE
CLOUDS. NONE THE LESS IT IS VFR. NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY. SOME CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START
COMING IN TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH FOR NO FOG AT
THE TAF SITES...OTHERWISE ISOLATED MVFR BR AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY SUN NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE TODAY. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. THE TREND FOR THE WINDS AND WAVES IS DEFINITELY
DOWN. BASED ON THE 3 AM MARINE OBSERVATIONS WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE NEARSHORE FORECAST WILL HAVE 2 TO 4 FEET TO
START AND THEN SUBSIDING AS THE MORNING AND DAY GOES ON. THE RIP
CURRENT RISK IS CLOSE TO MODERATE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THE
RISK WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY SUNDAY MORNING RETURNING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MAINLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
737 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BUILD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING TREND CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTH...NEARING THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT 7 AM. STILL
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND PUSH INLAND THIS
MORNING WITH SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT...THEN CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING A
STRATOCU DECK OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RUC HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DEPICTION OF 850MB MOISTURE WHICH SEEMS TO BE A GOOD PROXY FOR
THE CLEARING TREND APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EXPECT THIS TO SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AND BRING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS. SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD WILL OCCUR
THIS MORNING WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN EXTREME NW
OHIO TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NW PA. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OFF OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE A GOOD RECIPE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE DEWPOINTS DOWN
WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST. PATCHY
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN
NW PA OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING THE COVERAGE TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE WEST ON
SUNDAY IN FAVOR OF MORE CLOUDS. VERY DRY AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
OVERCOME IN THE LOW LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME SPRINKLES OR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN NW OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE HIGHER MOISTURE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST. DRY AIR AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION ALREADY ARRIVING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SO SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO A QUICK END EXCEPT
IN THE SNOW BELT WHERE WE WILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE LOW AND MID 60S AGAIN.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS NEXT
FRONT AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. EXPECTING LOW LEVELS
TO DRY OUT ENOUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
TO BE WINDING DOWN. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOW 40S
ON MONDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED LOCALS INTO THE UPPER 30S IN NW PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEDNESDAY AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS BECAUSE OF
SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR JUST SHOWERS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. JUST MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE POPS. FOR THE TIME BEING KEPT THE POPS EITHER 30 OR
40 PERCENT. THAT SEEMS REAL GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY
WHEN THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO GET BETTER AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THE TIMING AND TREND CONTINUES. KEPT CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE CLOUDS GO
AWAY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 18C TO START AND BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWN
TO AROUND 15C. THIS DIFFERENCE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS
GOING. HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW SOON WILL THAT HAPPEN. BASED ON THE
SATELLITE PICTURES AND USING THE RAP MODEL WILL SCATTER THE CLOUDS
OUT BY NOON. SOME HEATING THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE THE
CLOUDS. NONE THE LESS IT IS VFR. NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY. SOME CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START
COMING IN TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH FOR NO FOG AT
THE TAF SITES...OTHERWISE ISOLATED MVFR BR AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY SUN NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE TODAY. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. THE TREND FOR THE WINDS AND WAVES IS DEFINITELY
DOWN. BASED ON THE 3 AM MARINE OBSERVATIONS WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE NEARSHORE FORECAST WILL HAVE 2 TO 4 FEET TO
START AND THEN SUBSIDING AS THE MORNING AND DAY GOES ON. THE RIP
CURRENT RISK IS CLOSE TO MODERATE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THE
RISK WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY SUNDAY MORNING RETURNING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MAINLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BUILD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING TREND CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTH...NEARING THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT 7 AM. STILL
EXPECTING CLOUDS TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND PUSH INLAND THIS
MORNING WITH SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT...THEN CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING A
STRATOCU DECK OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RUC HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DEPICTION OF 850MB MOISTURE WHICH SEEMS TO BE A GOOD PROXY FOR
THE CLEARING TREND APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EXPECT THIS TO SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AND BRING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS. SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD WILL OCCUR
THIS MORNING WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN EXTREME NW
OHIO TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NW PA. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OFF OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE A GOOD RECIPE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE DEWPOINTS DOWN
WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST. PATCHY
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN
NW PA OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING THE COVERAGE TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE WEST ON
SUNDAY IN FAVOR OF MORE CLOUDS. VERY DRY AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
OVERCOME IN THE LOW LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME SPRINKLES OR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN NW OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE HIGHER MOISTURE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST. DRY AIR AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION ALREADY ARRIVING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SO SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO A QUICK END EXCEPT
IN THE SNOW BELT WHERE WE WILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE LOW AND MID 60S AGAIN.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS NEXT
FRONT AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. EXPECTING LOW LEVELS
TO DRY OUT ENOUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
TO BE WINDING DOWN. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOW 40S
ON MONDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED LOCALS INTO THE UPPER 30S IN NW PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEDNESDAY AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS BECAUSE OF
SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR JUST SHOWERS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. JUST MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE POPS. FOR THE TIME BEING KEPT THE POPS EITHER 30 OR
40 PERCENT. THAT SEEMS REAL GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY
WHEN THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO GET BETTER AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THE TIMING AND TREND CONTINUES. KEPT CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE CLOUDS GO
AWAY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 20C TO START AND BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWN
TO AROUND 15C. THIS DIFFERENCE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS
GOING. HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW SOON WILL THAT HAPPEN. BASED ON THE
SATELLITE PICTURES AND USING THE RAP MODEL WILL SCATTER THE CLOUDS
OUT BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW COULD SPREAD A
LITTLE CLOUDS TOWARD TOL AND FDY...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED OR FEW AND VFR. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY. SOME CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY START
COMING IN.
OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE TODAY. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. THE TREND FOR THE WINDS AND WAVES IS DEFINITELY
DOWN. BASED ON THE 3 AM MARINE OBSERVATIONS WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE NEARSHORE FORECAST WILL HAVE 2 TO 4 FEET TO
START AND THEN SUBSIDING AS THE MORNING AND DAY GOES ON. THE RIP
CURRENT RISK IS CLOSE TO MODERATE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THE
RISK WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY SUNDAY MORNING RETURNING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MAINLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
315 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH VERY LITTLE PICKED UP BY THE KHNX RADAR. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM SPC INDICATES MINOR INSTABILITY OVER THE
SIERRA CREST AND HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND MAX TEMPS LOOK GENERALLY ON
TRACK.
BROAD SCALE PATTERN SHIFT WILL UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TOWARD A FAVORING OF TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST...A PATTERN
THAT COULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SEPTEMBER. EC AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE IN SUPPORT OF THIS THOUGH OF COURSE THE PICTURE GETS
FUSSIER ON THE DETAILS FURTHER OUT /BY THE END OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK/.
THE MINOR AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE BRUSHED EASTWARD TOMORROW BY THE LOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE
SIERRA. WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A MINOR DOWNWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THOUGH REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THURSDAY
SHOULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY UPWARD BUMP IN
TEMPERATURES...TEMPORARY BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL COME BACK DOWN
FRIDAY AND COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY. A LOT OF ERROR
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AS A SLOWER OR FASTER SPEED TO
THE LOW COMING INTO NORCAL COULD MEAN A DIFFERENCE OF 10-15
DEGREES. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE EVENTUALLY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWING A DISTINCT TREND
TOWARD A DEEPER SOLUTION. DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES...COOL AIR
SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE SIERRA WITH THIS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM...ROUGHLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTH. MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE
NOT SIGNIFICANT AND FLUX VALUES ARE EQUALLY NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING WITH A STOUT FRONT TO CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW SNOW LEVELS AROUND 10KFT LOOK POSSIBLE...ANY HIGH
ALTITUDE ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT CHANGING WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY WEEK/S END.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST
UNTIL 02Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF MVFR IN SMOKE FROM THE RIM WILDFIRE WILL
PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...NONE.
TUOLUMNE COUNTY...AIR QUALITY ALERT THROUGH MONDAY SEPTEMBER 16TH.
SEE SFOAQAHNX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CALL THE TUOLUMNE COUNTY AIR DISTRICT
OFFICE AT 209.533.5693
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 09-14 106:2012 70:1910 72:1937 47:1903
KFAT 09-15 104:1983 74:1982 72:1938 45:1970
KFAT 09-16 105:1937 70:1908 73:1934 49:1955
KBFL 09-14 105:1989 74:2009 79:1971 45:1915
KBFL 09-15 106:1979 75:1959 77:1979 40:1915
KBFL 09-16 109:1929 74:1959 77:1971 42:1915
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...INIGUEZ
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
115 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH VERY LITTLE PICKED UP BY THE KHNX RADAR. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FROM SPC INDICATES MINOR INSTABILITY OVER THE
SIERRA CREST AND HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND MAX TEMPS LOOK GENERALLY ON
TRACK.
BROAD SCALE PATTERN SHIFT WILL UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TOWARD A FAVORING OF TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST...A PATTERN
THAT COULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SEPTEMBER. EC AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE IN SUPPORT OF THIS THOUGH OF COURSE THE PICTURE GETS
FUSSIER ON THE DETAILS FURTHER OUT /BY THE END OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK/.
THE MINOR AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE BRUSHED EASTWARD TOMORROW BY THE LOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE
SIERRA. WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A MINOR DOWNWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THOUGH REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THURSDAY
SHOULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY UPWARD BUMP IN
TEMPERATURES...TEMPORARY BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL COME BACK DOWN
FRIDAY AND COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY. A LOT OF ERROR
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AS A SLOWER OR FASTER SPEED TO
THE LOW COMING INTO NORCAL COULD MEAN A DIFFERENCE OF 10-15
DEGREES. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE EVENTUALLY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWING A DISTINCT TREND
TOWARD A DEEPER SOLUTION. DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES...COOL AIR
SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE SIERRA WITH THIS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM...ROUGHLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTH. MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE
NOT SIGNIFICANT AND FLUX VALUES ARE EQUALLY NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING WITH A STOUT FRONT TO CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW SNOW LEVELS AROUND 10KFT LOOK POSSIBLE...ANY HIGH
ALTITUDE ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT CHANGING WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY WEEK/S END.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST
UNTIL 02Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF MVFR IN SMOKE FROM THE RIM WILDFIRE WILL
PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 14 2013... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL
PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 09-14 106:2012 70:1910 72:1937 47:1903
KFAT 09-15 104:1983 74:1982 72:1938 45:1970
KFAT 09-16 105:1937 70:1908 73:1934 49:1955
KBFL 09-14 105:1989 74:2009 79:1971 45:1915
KBFL 09-15 106:1979 75:1959 77:1979 40:1915
KBFL 09-16 109:1929 74:1959 77:1971 42:1915
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...INIGUEZ
AVN/FW...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
236 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL ESTABLISH MODEST
BUT DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SAL APPEARS TO BE SUCCESSFULLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TODAY OVER
MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. EASTERLY FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...SO GULF BREEZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...WHILE
ATLANTIC BREEZE IS NOW INLAND OF METRO EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF EITHER SEA-BREEZE...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR/WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...WHERE LOW/MID-LEVELS ARE LEAST DRY AND DUST LAYER IS
LESS SIGNIFICANT. 18Z VSB SATELLITE ALREADY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT CU
FIELD IN THIS REGION...AND HRRR FORECAST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IS
MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WAS INDICTED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO HAVE SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT...THOUGH WITH LOW PWATS
FLOODING IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. FORECAST AND 12Z SOUNDING
WERE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING STRONGER THAN TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION...SO WILL LEAVE HWO MENTIONING FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AS MAIN THREAT. CONVECTION WILL
DIURNALLY WANE.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS LIFTS NORTHWARD
TONIGHT...ALLOWING DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH...USHERING IN GREATER MOISTURE AND CAUSING AN UPWARD-
TREND IN POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT REGULATED BY THE INCREASE IN PCPN/CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH MODELS PROJECTING LIKELY POPS. FOR NOW...CAPPING RAIN
CHANCES AT THIS TIME IN THE 40-50% RANGE. IN THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK LOW LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS AND WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
CLIMO WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS IN THE SHORT RANGE...TEMPERATURE
PATTERN OF NEARLY NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL PERSIST.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA-BREEZES HAVE FORMED. FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WESTWARD OF THE
TERMINALS WITH VCSH ASSIGNED ALTHOUGH ACTIVE CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY. FOR TERMINAL KAPF VCTS ASSIGNED AT 19Z...ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE INLAND AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL WHICH IS
INDICATED IN LATEST MESO-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE. BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES VCTS ASSIGNED. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS...BUT ANY OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM COULD RESULT IN BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST WINDS OF 5-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
PRESENT OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 89 78 89 / 10 40 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 89 80 90 / 20 40 30 50
MIAMI 79 90 79 89 / 20 40 30 50
NAPLES 76 91 76 91 / 10 40 30 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...23/SK
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE REGIONAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND PULLS NORTHEAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY SLIDES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING. THUS THE IDEA
OF CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS LOOKS REASONABLE AS
WINDS TREND LIGHT. DESPITE SOME EVIDENCE OF MODEST WESTERLY FLOW
ATOP THE NOCTURNAL PBL...PATCHY FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE GOOD BET IN
FAVORED LOCALES GIVEN AMBIENT GROUND MOISTURE REALLY HASN`T HAD A
SOLID PERIOD OF EVAPORATIVE DRYING TODAY AND WILL ACT TO SATURATE
NEAR SFC LAYERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY FROST
IN OUR COLDEST LOCALES OF THE DACKS/NERN VT AS WELL...BUT ONLY
LIMITED COVERAGE WARRANTS EXCLUSION OF ANY FROST HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AROUND 40 IN THE SLV AND IN THE 40S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING SUNDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
AND MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND TRENDING A TAD GUSTY BY AFTERNOON AS PBL P-GRAD
TIGHTENS SOMEWHAT BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OFF
TO OUR NORTHWEST. STRONGEST FLOW LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SLV WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KT MOST PROBABLE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT THEN PROGRESSES FAIRLY QUICKLY SOUTH
AND EAST INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. GIVEN FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND IT`S RATHER QUICK PROGRESSION...QPF SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS IN THE NRN MTNS. LOWS TRICKY GIVEN FRONTAL PASSAGE WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE SO KEPT CLOSE TO BIAS-CORECTED MOS VALUES FROM
45 TO 55 FOR MOST SPOTS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL THEN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING
FAIRLY STRONG COLD THERMAL ADVECTION TO TAKE OVER BY AFTERNOON ON
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. INDEED...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 55 TO 65 RANGE AS LINGERING
STRATOCUMULUS SLOWLY THINS BY AFTERNOON.
THEN CLEAR...CALM AND QUITE CHILLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER 1030
HPA CANADIAN SFC HIGH SETTLES ATOP THE AREA. WIDESPREAD PATCHY FROST
AND/OR FOG A GOOD BET WITH OUR COLDEST LOCALES POSSIBLY SEEING A
HARD FREEZE. TOO FAR OUT AT THIS POINT TO COVER WITH HEADLINES...BUT
IMAGINE THIS WILL BE LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/GEM AND
ECMWF ON LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU THURSDAY...BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BY LATE NEXT WEEK. PATTERN WL
FEATURE BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS WITH 1030MB SFC HIGH PRES NEAR SLK ON 12Z TUES...SLOWLY
SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS...WITH A LARGE DIURNAL SPREAD IN DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED...PER DEEP DRY LAYER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START NEAR 2C
TUES 12Z...BUT WARM TO NEAR 10C BY 00Z FRIDAY...AS WAA DEVELOPS ON
BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 4-6C ON
TUES AFTN...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE U50S MTNS TO U60S VALLEYS. ON
WEDS/THURS...85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 8-10C...SUPPORTING HIGHS BACK
INTO THE M60S MTNS TO M70S VALLEYS. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE FOR MID WEEK...SO EXPECT AT OR BLW NORMAL LOWS WITH
READINGS IN THE U20S/L30S COLDER VALLEYS TO U40S/L50S NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...ON TUES NIGHT...THESE TEMPS WL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
EACH NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH MAGNITUDE/TIMING AND IMPACTS OF NEXT SYSTEM LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE PROGGED FAST FLW ALOFT WL
TREND TWD A MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SHOWS A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION ACRS THE NORTHERN LAKES ON
FRIDAY...MOVING TWD THE NE CONUS BY SATURDAY. THIS WL PUSH VERY
WARM TEMPS INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY...BEFORE A SFC COLD
FRNT SWINGS ACRS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS.
GIVEN THE RIBBON OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT...EXPECTING A 6 TO 10
HOUR WINDOW OF PRECIP...BUT THIS SUBJECT TO CHANGE...ESPECIALLY IF
THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...AS ADVERTISED BY THE GEM/ECMWF. THE ECMWF
SHOWS AN INITIAL SURGE OF WAA/MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY...WITH MAIN CLOSED CORE SYSTEM NOT IMPACTING OUR REGION
UNTIL SUNDAY/MONDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. WL MENTION CHC POPS
FRI/SAT...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS AFTN/EVENING WL BE
TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING...FOLLOWED BY FOG/BR TONIGHT AT
SLK/MPV. A MOIST CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLW WITH COLD AIR ALOFT CONTS TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH SOME BREAKS NOTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS...SUCH AS THE
WESTERN CPV NEAR PBG. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONTS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH 21Z...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING AT ALL SITES BTWN
00Z-02Z. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES AND CLRING SKIES SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH CROSS OVER VALUES AT SLK/MPV WITH AREAS OF
FOG/BR ANTICIPATED WITH LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BTWN 06Z-12Z
SUNDAY. INTERESTING THE RAP SHOWS A LLVL JET AT 975 MB OF 25 TO 30
KNTS FROM THE WEST DEVELOPING AT PBG/MSS AFT 06Z...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE. FOG WL LIFT BTWN 12Z-
14Z SUNDAY...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN FAST JET ALOFT...EXPECT
SOME MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TO STREAM QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES BY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL THICKEN AHEAD OF NEXT SFC BOUNDARY ON
SUNDAY AFTN. GIVEN NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE/LIFT...EXPECTING ONLY
A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF PRECIP WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/CLOUDS WL
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY THRU WEDS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY FOG/FREEZING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV EACH
MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM 44...
BROADCASTING FROM THE TOP OF MOUNT ASCUTNEY VERMONT...REMAINS OFF
THE AIR DUE TO A DAMAGED ANTENNA. REPLACEMENT PARTS ARE ORDERED
AND THE REPAIR WORK HAS BEEN SCHEDULED FOR SEPTEMBER 17-20.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
341 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE REGIONAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND PULLS NORTHEAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY SLIDES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING. THUS THE IDEA
OF CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS LOOKS REASONABLE AS
WINDS TREND LIGHT. DESPITE SOME EVIDENCE OF MODEST WESTERLY FLOW
ATOP THE NOCTURNAL PBL...PATCHY FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE GOOD BET IN
FAVORED LOCALES GIVEN AMBIENT GROUND MOISTURE REALLY HASN`T HAD A
SOLID PERIOD OF EVAPORATIVE DRYING TODAY AND WILL ACT TO SATURATE
NEAR SFC LAYERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY FROST
IN OUR COLDEST LOCALES OF THE DACKS/NERN VT AS WELL...BUT ONLY
LIMITED COVERAGE WARRANTS EXCLUSION OF ANY FROST HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AROUND 40 IN THE SLV AND IN THE 40S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY SLIDES EAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING SUNDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
AND MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND TRENDING A TAD GUSTY BY AFTERNOON AS PBL P-GRAD
TIGHTENS SOMEWHAT BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OFF
TO OUR NORTHWEST. STRONGEST FLOW LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SLV WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KT MOST PROBABLE.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT THEN PROGRESSES FAIRLY QUICKLY SOUTH
AND EAST INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. GIVEN FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND IT`S RATHER QUICK PROGRESSION...QPF SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS IN THE NRN MTNS. LOWS TRICKY GIVEN FRONTAL PASSAGE WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE SO KEPT CLOSE TO BIAS-CORECTED MOS VALUES FROM
45 TO 55 FOR MOST SPOTS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL THEN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING
FAIRLY STRONG COLD THERMAL ADVECTION TO TAKE OVER BY AFTERNOON ON
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. INDEED...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 55 TO 65 RANGE AS LINGERING
STRATOCUMULUS SLOWLY THINS BY AFTERNOON.
THEN CLEAR...CALM AND QUITE CHILLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER 1030
HPA CANADIAN SFC HIGH SETTLES ATOP THE AREA. WIDESPREAD PATCHY FROST
AND/OR FOG A GOOD BET WITH OUR COLDEST LOCALES POSSIBLY SEEING A
HARD FREEZE. TOO FAR OUT AT THIS POINT TO COVER WITH HEADLINES...BUT
IMAGINE THIS WILL BE LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT SATURDAY...NWP GUIDANCE SUITE AT 00Z LARGELY THE SAME
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH ADVERTISED QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER.
A LARGE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS NRN NY INTO VT BY 12Z TUESDAY. WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WIND...GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING WILL SETUP A
FROST/FREEZE SCENARIO FOR CENTRAL/ERN VT AND NRN NY AWAY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ASSOCIATED
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. COLDEST
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED AROUND LAKE PLACID AND SARANAC LAKE (AROUND
28F)...AND LOCALLY NEAR 30F AROUND ISLAND POND/CANAAN IN FAR NERN
VT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPR 30S IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ALSO...VALLEY FOG TYPICAL IN THE LOWER
PASSUMPSIC VALLEY...IMMEDIATE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WINOOSKI
VALLEY WILL LIMIT FROST FORMATION IN THESE CENTRAL AND ERN VT
RIVER VALLEYS. OUTLYING AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL HAVE
BETTER PROSPECTS FOR FROST/FREEZE 06-12Z TUE.
SFC RIDGE MAKES FOR SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUE-THU...AND STAYED CLOSE TO A MIX OF 00Z MEX-MOS AND MEX BIAS
CORRECTION ON TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A MODERATING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR AFTN HIGHS TUESDAY...BUT
UP IN THE LOWER 70S WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO OUR SW
AND DEVELOPING SWLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS 20-30 POPS FOR -SHRA ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS AFTN/EVENING WL BE
TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING...FOLLOWED BY FOG/BR TONIGHT AT
SLK/MPV. A MOIST CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLW WITH COLD AIR ALOFT CONTS TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH SOME BREAKS NOTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS...SUCH AS THE
WESTERN CPV NEAR PBG. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONTS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH 21Z...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING AT ALL SITES BTWN
00Z-02Z. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES AND CLRING SKIES SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH CROSS OVER VALUES AT SLK/MPV WITH AREAS OF
FOG/BR ANTICIPATED WITH LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BTWN 06Z-12Z
SUNDAY. INTERESTING THE RAP SHOWS A LLVL JET AT 975 MB OF 25 TO 30
KNTS FROM THE WEST DEVELOPING AT PBG/MSS AFT 06Z...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE. FOG WL LIFT BTWN 12Z-
14Z SUNDAY...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN FAST JET ALOFT...EXPECT
SOME MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TO STREAM QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES BY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL THICKEN AHEAD OF NEXT SFC BOUNDARY ON
SUNDAY AFTN. GIVEN NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE/LIFT...EXPECTING ONLY
A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF PRECIP WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/CLOUDS WL
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY THRU WEDS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY FOG/FREEZING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV EACH
MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 341 PM EDT SATURDAY...NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM 44...
BROADCASTING FROM THE TOP OF MOUNT ASCUTNEY VERMONT...REMAINS OFF
THE AIR DUE TO A DAMAGED ANTENNA. REPLACEMENT PARTS ARE ORDERED
AND THE REPAIR WORK HAS BEEN SCHEDULED FOR SEPTEMBER 17-20.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY...GIVING WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL
SWING DOWN FROM EAST CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1226 PM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
LOWER HOURLY/MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE RO TWO AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANGES VERY MINOR AND AS A WHOLE FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE AS OF MID-MORNING TO INCREASE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS FAR
NERN VT THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN TAPER THINGS SLOWLY OFF. GYX
RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER 3 INCHES JUST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BORDER
IN COOS COUNTY NEAR DIXVILLE NOTCH SO CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS
(60-80%) LOOK REASONABLE. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL/NWRN VT/DACKS...JUST A FEW/SCT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
ENDING BY NOONTIME OR SO AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLOUDS TO DEPART SLOWER FROM THE DACKS EAST
HOWEVER AS ONE FINAL H5 VORT BAND STILL ON TRACK TO PIVOT THROUGH
THE AREA AROUND SUNSET. BEST WX TODAY ACROSS THE SLV WHERE PARTIAL
TO FULL SUN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EDT SATURDAY...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH...GIVING THE FORECAST AREA WSW SFC FLOW THRU
MUCH OF THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY/MSUNNY SKIES TO
PERSIST. TOWARDS THE LATE AFTNOON HRS...MDLS CONTINUE TO BRING
NEXT WX SYSTEM SE FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC IN THE FORM OF WK FRNTL
BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD MDL TIMING ISSUES AS TO ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP INTO THE ST LAW VALLEY/DACKS. LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR -RW
TO START AROUND 22Z-23Z SUNDAY...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF CWA
THRU THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNGT IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR
AS FROPA COMMENCES ACROSS THE AREA. BY MORNING HRS MONDAY...BULK
OF RAIN WILL HAVE CLRD NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES...W/ SLOW EXIT OF
CWA IN ITS ENTIRETY BY LATE AFTNOON. LIGHT QPF AROUND 0.10-0.20"
FOR EVENT. COOLER AIR COMING IN ON BACKSIDE OF FRNT WILL SLOWLY
FILTER FROM NW TO SE THRU THE DAY. THIS CAA COMBINED WITH
CLDS/RAIN FROM FRNT WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERALL SUNDAY
WARMEST PART OF FORECAST WITH HIGHS NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY LOCALES
AND 60S ELSEWHERE. MONDAY WILL SEE THE CWA MAINLY 50S WITH SOME
L60S IN SE VT AND CVLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT SATURDAY...NWP GUIDANCE SUITE AT 00Z LARGELY THE SAME
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH ADVERTISED QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER.
A LARGE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS NRN NY INTO VT BY 12Z TUESDAY. WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WIND...GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING WILL SETUP A
FROST/FREEZE SCENARIO FOR CENTRAL/ERN VT AND NRN NY AWAY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ASSOCIATED
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. COLDEST
LOW TEMPS EXPECTED AROUND LAKE PLACID AND SARANAC LAKE (AROUND
28F)...AND LOCALLY NEAR 30F AROUND ISLAND POND/CANAAN IN FAR NERN
VT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPR 30S IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ALSO...VALLEY FOG TYPICAL IN THE LOWER
PASSUMPSIC VALLEY...IMMEDIATE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WINOOSKI
VALLEY WILL LIMIT FROST FORMATION IN THESE CENTRAL AND ERN VT
RIVER VALLEYS. OUTLYING AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL HAVE
BETTER PROSPECTS FOR FROST/FREEZE 06-12Z TUE.
SFC RIDGE MAKES FOR SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUE-THU...AND STAYED CLOSE TO A MIX OF 00Z MEX-MOS AND MEX BIAS
CORRECTION ON TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A MODERATING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR AFTN HIGHS TUESDAY...BUT
UP IN THE LOWER 70S WED AND THU. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO OUR SW
AND DEVELOPING SWLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS 20-30 POPS FOR -SHRA ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. TEMPS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS AFTN/EVENING WL BE
TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING...FOLLOWED BY FOG/BR TONIGHT AT
SLK/MPV. A MOIST CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLW WITH COLD AIR ALOFT CONTS TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH SOME BREAKS NOTED IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS...SUCH AS THE
WESTERN CPV NEAR PBG. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONTS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH 21Z...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING AT ALL SITES BTWN
00Z-02Z. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES AND CLRING SKIES SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH CROSS OVER VALUES AT SLK/MPV WITH AREAS OF
FOG/BR ANTICIPATED WITH LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BTWN 06Z-12Z
SUNDAY. INTERESTING THE RAP SHOWS A LLVL JET AT 975 MB OF 25 TO 30
KNTS FROM THE WEST DEVELOPING AT PBG/MSS AFT 06Z...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE. FOG WL LIFT BTWN 12Z-
14Z SUNDAY...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN FAST JET ALOFT...EXPECT
SOME MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM TO STREAM QUICKLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES BY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...
MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL THICKEN AHEAD OF NEXT SFC BOUNDARY ON
SUNDAY AFTN. GIVEN NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE/LIFT...EXPECTING ONLY
A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF PRECIP WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/CLOUDS WL
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY THRU WEDS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAILY FOG/FREEZING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV EACH
MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 333 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM 44...
BROADCASTING FROM THE TOP OF MOUNT ASCUTNEY VERMONT...REMAINS OFF
THE AIR DUE TO A DAMAGED ANTENNA. REPLACEMENT PARTS ARE ORDERED
AND THE REPAIR WORK HAS BEEN SCHEDULED FOR SEPTEMBER 17-20.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
115 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BUILD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS GOOD.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING A
STRATOCU DECK OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RUC HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DEPICTION OF 850MB MOISTURE WHICH SEEMS TO BE A GOOD PROXY FOR
THE CLEARING TREND APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EXPECT THIS TO SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AND BRING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS. SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD WILL OCCUR
THIS MORNING WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN EXTREME NW
OHIO TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NW PA. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OFF OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE A GOOD RECIPE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE DEWPOINTS DOWN
WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST. PATCHY
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN
NW PA OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING THE COVERAGE TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE WEST ON
SUNDAY IN FAVOR OF MORE CLOUDS. VERY DRY AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
OVERCOME IN THE LOW LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME SPRINKLES OR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN NW OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE HIGHER MOISTURE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST. DRY AIR AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION ALREADY ARRIVING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SO SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO A QUICK END EXCEPT
IN THE SNOW BELT WHERE WE WILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE LOW AND MID 60S AGAIN.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS NEXT
FRONT AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. EXPECTING LOW LEVELS
TO DRY OUT ENOUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
TO BE WINDING DOWN. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOW 40S
ON MONDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED LOCALS INTO THE UPPER 30S IN NW PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEDNESDAY AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS BECAUSE OF
SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR JUST SHOWERS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. JUST MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE POPS. FOR THE TIME BEING KEPT THE POPS EITHER 30 OR
40 PERCENT. THAT SEEMS REAL GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY
WHEN THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO GET BETTER AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THE TIMING AND TREND CONTINUES. KEPT CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW CU
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY SUN NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE TODAY. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. THE TREND FOR THE WINDS AND WAVES IS DEFINITELY
DOWN. BASED ON THE 3 AM MARINE OBSERVATIONS WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE NEARSHORE FORECAST WILL HAVE 2 TO 4 FEET TO
START AND THEN SUBSIDING AS THE MORNING AND DAY GOES ON. THE RIP
CURRENT RISK IS CLOSE TO MODERATE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THE
RISK WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY SUNDAY MORNING RETURNING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MAINLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1212 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BUILD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS GOOD.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING A
STRATOCU DECK OFF OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RUC HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OVERNIGHT WITH
THE DEPICTION OF 850MB MOISTURE WHICH SEEMS TO BE A GOOD PROXY FOR
THE CLEARING TREND APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EXPECT THIS TO SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AND BRING AN END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS. SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD WILL OCCUR
THIS MORNING WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN EXTREME NW
OHIO TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NW PA. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OFF OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE A GOOD RECIPE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE DEWPOINTS DOWN
WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST. PATCHY
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN
NW PA OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING THE COVERAGE TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE WEST ON
SUNDAY IN FAVOR OF MORE CLOUDS. VERY DRY AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
OVERCOME IN THE LOW LEVELS AND EXPECT ONLY SOME SPRINKLES OR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IN NW OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE HIGHER MOISTURE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST. DRY AIR AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION ALREADY ARRIVING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT SO SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO A QUICK END EXCEPT
IN THE SNOW BELT WHERE WE WILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE LOW AND MID 60S AGAIN.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS NEXT
FRONT AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. EXPECTING LOW LEVELS
TO DRY OUT ENOUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
TO BE WINDING DOWN. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE LOW 40S
ON MONDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED LOCALS INTO THE UPPER 30S IN NW PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEDNESDAY AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS BECAUSE OF
SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR JUST SHOWERS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. JUST MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE POPS. FOR THE TIME BEING KEPT THE POPS EITHER 30 OR
40 PERCENT. THAT SEEMS REAL GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY
WHEN THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO GET BETTER AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THE TIMING AND TREND CONTINUES. KEPT CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE CLOUDS GO
AWAY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 18C TO START AND BY MID AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWN
TO AROUND 15C. THIS DIFFERENCE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS
GOING. HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW SOON WILL THAT HAPPEN. BASED ON THE
SATELLITE PICTURES AND USING THE RAP MODEL WILL SCATTER THE CLOUDS
OUT BY NOON. SOME HEATING THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE THE
CLOUDS. NONE THE LESS IT IS VFR. NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY. SOME CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START
COMING IN TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH FOR NO FOG AT
THE TAF SITES...OTHERWISE ISOLATED MVFR BR AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY SUN NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE TODAY. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WILL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. THE TREND FOR THE WINDS AND WAVES IS DEFINITELY
DOWN. BASED ON THE 3 AM MARINE OBSERVATIONS WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE. THE NEARSHORE FORECAST WILL HAVE 2 TO 4 FEET TO
START AND THEN SUBSIDING AS THE MORNING AND DAY GOES ON. THE RIP
CURRENT RISK IS CLOSE TO MODERATE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THE
RISK WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY SUNDAY MORNING RETURNING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO ONSHORE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MAINLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA