Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/28/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

220 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST TROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL
RATES MAY BE HEAVY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING...AND MAY BE EXTENDED. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALSO DEEPEN THE
MARINE LAYER.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE MID MORNING DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS IS RAPIDLY
SATURATING. INTERNET ACCESS HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND EXTREMELY SLOW
TODAY...ADDING ANOTHER VARIABLE TO SOLVING THE FORECAST PROBLEM.
CONSENSUS IS THAT A SUBSIDENCE CAP FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
EASTERLY WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT ENOUGH HEATING
AND CLEARING LEFT THIS AFTERNOON TO OVERCOME THIS AND ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO 45000 FT TO DEVELOP. THE MOST RECENT GPS MET
INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS NOW SHOW A RANGE OF VALUES
FROM 1.5 INCHES ON THE COAST TO 2.2 INCHES OVER THE COACHELLA
VALLEY/ANZA BORREGO DESERT. 20Z RUC MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW
TRANSPORT WINDS DROPPING BELOW 15 MPH BETWEEN NOW AND 1700 PDT. WITH
A TROPICAL AIR MASS...CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
AS WELL AS THOSE GENERATED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME
HEATING. AS FOR SATURDAY OVERALL SYNOPTIC AND EVEN MESOSCALE PATTERN
DOES NOT LOOK A LOT DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. THE VEERING OF THE GENERAL
WINDS FLOW FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IS THE ONLY DAMPENING EFFECT AND
UNLESS THE TRANSPORT WINDS ARE IN EXCESS OF 10 MPH...CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND OR REISSUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEYOND 8 PM THIS EVENING. DID SOME TWEAKING TO THE POPS/QPF GRIDS TO
BRING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST
GUIDANCE...THESE STILL MAY BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH
SLOWER MOVING CELLS AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS THAT MIGHT OCCUR ALONG
SLOW MOVING CONVERGENCE ZONES. KEPT THE TREND OF LOWER POPS/COVERAGE
FOR SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
THE GENERAL AND PREVAILING WIND FLOW IS SOUTHWEST. THE LOW/TROUGH
OFF THE COAST DOES NOT COMPLETELY GO AWAY AND SOME MODELS INDICATE
IT MAY SPIN BACK UP INTO A CLOSED LOW AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST. IF THAT
MATERIALIZES THEN WE ARE BACK INTO A MONSOON FLOW PATTERN BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. NOT CERTAIN IF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...7-45 DAYS
SUPPORTS THIS...BUT WE HAVE HAD SUMMERS IN THE RECENT PAST THAT ONCE
THE MONSOON SEASON STARTS...THE SURGES OF TROPICAL AIR MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA DO NOT END UNTIL SEPTEMBER. FOR NOW THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING SUNDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...
261905Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTAL STRIP THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BASES 1K-1.3K FT MSL AND
TOPS 1.5-2K FT MSL. A DEEP MONSOONAL FLOW OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE BKN CIGS AOA FL100 WITH LYRS TO FL250...CLEARING FROM KSAN
TO KSNA BEGINNING AROUND 00Z THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT.

500-700 FT THICK STRATUS LAYER WITH BASES NEAR 1K FT MSL EXPECTED TO
MOVE BACK INLAND AFT 01Z SAT AND EXTEND 15-20SM INLAND THROUGH 12Z
SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES.

MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...SCT-BKN AND OCCASIONALLY OVC AOA FL100 WITH
SCT RW- AND ISOLD TRW THROUGH 02Z SAT. TSTM BASES WILL BE NEAR 8K
FT...BUT BRIEFLY LOWER OBSCURING HYR TRRN AT TIMES. ISOLD TSTM TOPS
FM FL400-450. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STG UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LOCAL
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT WITH ASSOC LLWS.

.MARINE...
MIX OF SOUTH SWELLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 2-3 FT...OCCASIONAL 4
FT SURF.

SOUTH SWELL WILL BE INCREASING MON-TUE...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL SURF
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE APPLE AND
LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD
SHORT TERM...SMALL/GONSALVES/TARDY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

1017 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE AREA IS BETWEEN A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HEADING INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WITH THIS IS
EVIDENT AROUND BAKERSFIELD.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WAVE SHIFTS NORTHWOOD. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER THE
SIERRA CREST THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY AND SHASTA
COUNTY WITH BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE SCALED BACK THE
POSSIBITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WHERE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED. RENO MORNING WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDING
SHOWS CAPE LEVELS OVER 1000 J/KG. HRRR MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. RADAR SHOWS A FEW CELLS HAVE
ALREADY FORMED EAST OF BURNEY. STORMS SHOULD FORM NEAR THE CREST
AND WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FAVOR MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. COULD BE SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN TODAY ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
WITH LOCAL FLOODING. SOME STORMS ALONG THE CREST MAY BE STRONG
WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA. THIS SHOULD
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE STARTING COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN DELTA
INFLUENCED AREAS. WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT FAIRFIELD AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VACAVILLE IS 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AT 73 DEGREES...AND SACRAMENTO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 6 DEGREES COOLER AT 70 DEGREES. HAVE
DROPPED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE DUE TO THE DELTA
BREEZE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AROUND SACRAMENTO. THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 105 AND THE NORTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN INTO THE UPPER 90S. IN THE EAST BAY VALLEJO SHOULD STAY IN
THE LOW 70S...WITH MORNING STRATUS BURNING OFF BY NOON. FORECAST
UPDATE IS OUT. EK

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY MOVES INLAND
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK... WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

DANG

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
10 KNOTS EXCEPT THROUGH THE DELTA...WESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS. THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
18Z AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

910 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.UPDATE...THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DISSIPATED, BUT NOW A FEW CELLS
ARE RE-DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NOW OVER FAR SOUTH
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...WITH QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTING ALONG THE COAST
AT FLORIDA BAY. HAVE ORIENTED POPS AT 20 PERCENT INTERIOR AND 30
PERCENT ALONG BOTH COASTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD INCREASE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALONG THE
GULF COAST, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY, SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS CONTINUE THERE OVERNIGHT. THE
EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF 2.25 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013/

AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING BUT A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA BUT NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND MOVING SOUTHEAST BUT IS NOT
FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY FLOW WITH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS AT
THE TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013/

DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...PUSHING THE DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THE HRRR AND GFS BOTH SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AFTER 00Z. THESE SHOWERS MAY
THEN PUSH OFF THE COAST AFTER 06Z. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...AND
THERE MAY BE SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS WELL.
COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
LATE IN THE NIGHT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK MAY HELP STORMS REDEVELOP
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. SO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. THE MAIN THREAT
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND GUSTY
WINDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH A
MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS FOR THE EAST
COAST...AND THEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS
THE GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW AND THE REMNANTS SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RAIN CHANCES MAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE
EAST COAST.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS DUE TO THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING. AT
KAPF, A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BRING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND/OR SEAS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 88 77 89 / 30 50 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 88 79 89 / 30 50 20 20
MIAMI 76 88 77 90 / 30 50 20 20
NAPLES 77 90 75 92 / 30 20 10 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

754 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013/

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND/OR SEAS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 88 77 89 / 20 50 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 88 79 89 / 20 50 20 20
MIAMI 76 88 77 90 / 20 50 20 20
NAPLES 77 90 75 92 / 20 20 10 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/DG
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

355 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
CONVECTIVE PRECIP BAND PUSHING INTO THE VCNTY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS
ASSOCD WITH A PREFRONTAL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. THE ACTUAL
FRONT ITSELF IS HUNG UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND UNDERGOING
FRONTALYSIS ACCORDING TO NCEP SFC ANALYSIS. WIND PROFILE DATA SHOWS
H100-H70 WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE AT KJAX...NW AT KTBW...AND
TO THE W/NW AT KMLB...INDICATING THE TROF AXIS IS BISECTING THE
PENINSULA AS OF 07Z. RAP ANALYSIS CONFIRMS THIS WITH A MID LVL VORT
AXIS JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

A CLOSED H100-H70 LOW LIFTING UP THE ERN SEABOARD WILL COMBINE WITH
A WEAK ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY TO PUSH THE TROF AXIS THRU
CENTRAL FL THRU THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A N/NERLY H100-H70 WIND
FIELD OVER MOST OF THE CWA...CONFIRMED BY THE KJAX VAD WIND DATA.
THIS FLOW REGIME IS ONE OF THE MOST INACTIVE WRT CENTRAL FL TSRA
ACTIVITY AS IT TAPS THE COOLER AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS
WHILE PULLING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO FL.

RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS WILL BE THE CASE AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH H100-H85 MEAN RH VALUES DROPPING BLO 60PCT WHILE
H50-H50 LAPSE RATES OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE PENINSULA ARE BLO
5.0C/KM WITH H50 TEMPS BTWN -3C AND -4C. WEAK MID LVL VORTICITY AND
UPR LVL DIVERGENCE BEHIND THE PREFRONTAL TROF AXIS WILL ONLY FURTHER
"DAMPEN" THE PROSPECTS FOR SHRA/TSRA DVLPMNT.

SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE L/M70S...AND WITH CLR SKIES OVER N FL
WORKING THEIR WAY SOUTH...SHOULD SEE NEAR FULL SUN THRU THE PEAK
HEATING HRS ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WEAK PGRAD WILL ALLOW
BOTH SEA BREEZES TO FORM BY MIDDAY WITH THE COLLISION ZONE W OF THE
FL TURNPIKE BY LATE AFTN.

WILL REMOVE THUNDER E OF KLEE-KMCO-KMLB AND GO WITH ISOLD SHRAS AS
THE INSTABILITY LVLS ARE JUST TOO LOW TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION.
SCT SHRAS/ISOLD TSRAS TO THE SW OF KLEE-KMCO-KMLB AS THE DYNAMIC
LIFT SUPPORT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER AND THE MOISTURE A LITTLE
HIGHER NEAR THE VCNTY OF THE TROF AXIS. STORM MOTION WILL BE S/SE AT
10-15 MPH...UNUSUAL FOR MID SUMMER. LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THRU MID EVEN...BUT
PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

NRLY WINDS...DEBRIS CLOUD COVER...AND EARLY SEABREEZE FORMATION
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE U80S. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY SIG
SFC DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH MOS OUTPUT KEEPING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
L/M70S...MIN TEMPS WILL REFLECT THIS.

SAT-SUN...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STARTS OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. AT
SURFACE...THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND RESULTS IN CONTINUED SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW BOTH DAYS.
THE NAM12 IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A MUCH BROADER AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURES EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
NOT QUITE REACHING THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER 26/00Z GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND THAT
THE 25/12Z NAM12 DID NOT SHOW ANY CLOSED ISOBARS AND THE 25/18Z RUN
WAS SHOWING A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER GRAND BAHAMA. CHANCE POP OF 30 TO
50 PERCENT NORTH TO SOUTH LOOKS REASONABLE. HIGHS UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.
LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

MON-THU...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND FINALLY
LIFTS NORTH TUE-THU. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY AND NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND REMAINS
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
EARLY MONDAY TRANSITIONS TO ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ONSHORE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION FORECASTS
OF MOISTURE SHOWS MOST OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO 850MB/5000 FEET
AND BELOW. MEX MOS POP NUMBERS RESPOND WITH GENERALLY 30 POP DURING
THE DAY AND 20 OVERNIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL TEND TO PUSH PRECIP
QUICKLY ACROSS THE COAST DURING THE MORNING AND THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S DURING
THE DAY AND LOW/MID 70S OVERNIGHT.

.AVIATION...
THRU 26/14Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS S OF KMLB-KLAL....LCL MVFR
CIGS BTWN KMLB-KLAL AND THE I-4 CORRIDOR. BTWN 26/14Z-26/16Z...SFC
WNDSHFT FM W/NW TO NE AOB 12KTS ALONG THE COAST BTWN KOMN-KMLB WITH
THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEAS BREEZE. BTWN 26/16Z-26-24Z...
SEABREEZE MVG INLAND WITH WNDSHFT FROM NW TO NE AOB 12KTS
KMCO/KSFB/KISM ARND 20Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS E OF KLEE-KISM-KMLB...
SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS S OF KLEE-KISM-KMLB. BTWN
27/00Z-27-02Z...ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS S OF KVRB-KOBE. AFT 27/02Z VFR ALL
SITES.

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...TROF AXIS PUSHING THRU CENTRAL FL WILL FORCE SFC
WINDS TO VEER TO THE N/NE THRU THE DAY...THOUGH W/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE S OF SEBASTIAN INLET INTO EARLY AFTN. WEAK PGRAD WILL KEEP
WIND SPEEDS AOB 12KTS. SEAS AOB 2FT. SCT SHRAS/ISOLD TSRAS MOVING
OFFSHORE S OF CAPE CANAVERAL THRU LATE MORNING.

SAT-SUN...PERSISTENT 10 TO 15 KNOT OFFSHORE FLOW BOTH DAYS. SEAS 1
TO 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE.

MON-TUE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY
THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING NORTHWARD UP THE PENINSULA. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE TUE. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL HINTING AT A SMALL BUT INCREASING
LONG PERIOD SWELL STARTING LATE MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN DECREASING PERIODS STARTING FRIDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 88 73 89 73 / 20 10 30 20
MCO 89 73 92 73 / 20 10 30 20
MLB 86 74 88 73 / 30 10 40 20
VRB 87 74 88 72 / 30 10 40 20
LEE 91 73 93 75 / 20 10 40 20
SFB 89 73 93 74 / 20 10 30 20
ORL 89 73 93 75 / 20 10 30 20
FPR 87 74 89 72 / 30 20 50 20

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

231 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

...VERY WARM TO HOT DAY CONTINUES ACROSS EAST COAST METRO AREAS TODAY...
...RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING FOR A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AREA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALONG WITH SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SO POPS
TODAY WILL RANGE 20 PERCENT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS TO 50
PERCENT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY TODAY.

THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM
TO HOT DAY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. MORE ON THE
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AREA ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO
WORK NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH IN TURN WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MORE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER THE AREA...AND ALLOW
FOR THE HIGHEST POPS TO BE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. SO WILL SHOW THIS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS
FOR TROPICAL STORM DORIAN TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING DORIAN TO MOVE MORE WESTWARD TOWARD CUBA LATE NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NHC THIS WEEKEND ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF DORIAN AND REVIEW YOUR SUPPLIES FOR A
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...
LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS CURRENTLY ENTERING HIGHLANDS AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THE LINE THROUGH LAKE
OKEECHOBEE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A WEAKENING MODE. DO NOT THINK
IT WILL AFFECT ANY TAF SITE ATTM. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT THE EAST COAST SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS.

.MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS...BEFORE SLOWLY SWINGING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY
THIS WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD
FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORD HIGHS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO SITES FOR TODAY:

CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIA 94 97 - 1983
FLL 93 95 - 1983
PBI 94 99 - 1983
MIA BEACH 92 93 - 1969

SO WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO ZONES
FOR TODAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 94 76 91 76 / 50 30 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 93 78 91 78 / 30 20 40 20
MIAMI 94 77 90 77 / 30 20 40 20
NAPLES 90 77 89 76 / 40 10 30 20

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

931 AM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SERN OREGON AND ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
AND A LESSER CHANCE IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. FINER DETAILS IN THE HRRR MODEL EMPHASIZE SRN HARNEY
COUNTY FOR THE GREATEST ACTIVITY. YESTERDAY THE HRRR VERY
ACCURATELY PREDICTED THUNDERSTORMS JUST SW OF HARNEY COUNTY THURSDAY
EVENING WITH OUTFLOW WINDS INTO SRN HARNEY. WE WILL UPDATE CURRENT
FORECAST TO EXTEND CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND 06Z
TONIGHT IN SERN OREGON. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR LIGHTNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT THERE. THAT AREA IS STILL UNDER HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE OUTFLOW
FROM TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE OFF MEXICO. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH IN WESTERN CANADA WILL COME IN
WITH A CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS. TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH THE
MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE OUT TO THE EAST.

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERD CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z MAINLY ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST CENTRAL IDAHO. STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LAST
THROUGH 06Z. LIGHT SW TO NW SURFACE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS ALOFT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN DRAWN
NORTH OUT OF THE TROPICS /CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE LOOP/ WILL FEED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO TODAY. MID-LEVEL ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BORDER REGION WITH NV WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
DRIVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL
OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS OF ID. WITH THE DRY
SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH AMOUNT OF
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER FOR POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW WINDS PUSHING INTO THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS
THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL DROP
INTO THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. THE
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN SOME IN TIMING THIS FRONT WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF IS DRY BUT
CONTINUED MOIST SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN BOISE MTNS AND WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO SOUTHEASTERN
OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO. THERE WILL BE AT ABOUT A 10 DEGREE
DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE COOLER WEATHER
SHOULD LAST ALL WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT AND
EVEN DRIER AIR BEHIND IT...SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO WHERE AFTERNOON
BUILD UPS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
EACH DAY.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM MDT / 3 PM PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT MDT / 11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT ORZ636-637.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....CB
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

826 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 825 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED...BUT A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST AROUND THE COLD CORE
UPPER LOW IN WISCONSIN. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS IS NUDGING THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. LATEST RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OF THIS
SPREADING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES WERE WIDESPREAD...WITH EVEN COOLER VALUES UPSTREAM...
AND THIS CONTINUES TO POINT TO RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD LOWS OVER
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST HOURLY TRENDS...BUT PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

GEELHART

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE UPPER LOW
OVER WISCONSIN...CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. LATEST HUMIDITY PLOTS FROM THE RAP MODEL SHOW IT
BEGINNING TO TAKE MORE OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK IN A COUPLE
HOURS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW. AREAS FROM KPIA-KCMI CURRENTLY
LOOK TO BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK...SO WILL KEEP BROKEN
CEILINGS AROUND 6000 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE CUMULUS IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND IS ALREADY THINNING
OUT...AND SHOULD LARGELY BE GONE BY 01-02Z. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET BREAKING
OUT LATE MORNING...AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15-20 KNOTS...ALBEIT
MORE OUT OF THE WEST THIS TIME.

GEELHART

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED 820 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING...

BLOOMINGTON...49 IN 1895
CHAMPAIGN.....50 IN 1895
CHARLESTON....51 IN 1920
DECATUR.......51 IN 1994
EFFINGHAM.....51 IN 1962
LINCOLN.......50 IN 1920
OLNEY.........52 IN 1937
PARIS.........51 IN 1937
PEORIA........47 IN 1962
SPRINGFIELD...53 IN 2004

GEELHART

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL PROVIDE RELIEF FROM TYPICAL MID-SUMMER
HEAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. NEXT FRIDAY HIGHS
MAY REACH UP CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID 80S. THE NEXT WAVE OF
RAIN AND STORMS IS FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN FORCING FOR
PRECIP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THAT TIME...WHERE 1-2"
OF RAIN MAY FALL. A LATE WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRIGGER STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

A COLD CORE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL CHURN DIURNAL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SPRINKLES INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DISSIPATION OF THE MAJORITY OF
THE CLOUDS SHOULD COME EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE PROMINENT CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND N IOWA IS PROJECTED TO ROTATE
INTO N IL TONIGHT. WE MAY SEE THOSE CLOUDS AFFECT THE NORTHERN
TIER OF OUR COUNTIES FROM GALESBURG TO CHAMPAIGN. TIMING OF THOSE
CLOUDS WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. IN GENERAL, BY
MORNING MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. GFS/MAV
GUIDANCE IS GOING COLDER THAN THE NAM/MET GUID FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
THE MAV HAS 47 FOR SPI, WHICH WOULD CRUSH THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW
OF 53 BY 6 DEGREES. WE ARE NOT GOING QUITE THAT LOW...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 49.
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT DOWN INTO THE MID 40S...BUT WE
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS A
RESULT, MOST AREAS WILL BE SEEING RECORD OR NEAR RECORD COLD FOR
THE MORNING OF JULY 28.

THE AIR MASS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY FOR SUNDAY AS A
REINFORCING LOBE OF COLD AIR ROTATES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
WE SHOULD SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
FILLING IN WITH ANY SUNSHINE. WE DID NOT ADD SPRINKLES TO THE
GRIDS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES
FOR SUFFICIENT UPDRAFTS FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE ALONG OUR FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES...MAYBE FROM BMI TO CMI AND DNV. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. THE
COLDEST AIR ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST...WHERE WE
HAVE A SMALL AREA OF UPPER 40S EAST OF CMI. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50-55F RANGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

MONDAY WILL SEE SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY DEPARTS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WE SEE MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 12-16C
RANGE...HELPING PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE WARMUP WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS EVEN POSSIBLE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND WARM FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES. WE KEPT SOME LIKELY POPS SOUTHWEST OF SPI BUT BUMPED
THEM TO AFTER MIDNIGHT...BASED ON A SLIGHTLY SLOWER CONSENSUS OF
THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN.

WE ARE NOT EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
BETWEEN 1.5-2" MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IL.
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE TRACK OF
THE LOW ALONG THAT FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TRAINING STORMS
OVER THE SAME AREA.

THE PATH OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS KEEP
THE LOW AT LEAST ALONG OF SOUTH OF I-72...WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE
OUR HIGHEST POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-70...SO WE
ADDED LIKELY IN THAT AREA. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TUESDAYS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...A LITTLE COOLER THAN MONDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE LOW MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE EAST. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
WETTER SOLUTION PROMPTED SOME CHANCE POPS EAST OF LINCOLN. DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO ILLINOIS.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD AT LEAST SEE HIGHS CLIMB BACK
UP AROUND 80 WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE FRIDAY...AS THE GFS INDICATES
ADDITIONAL WARMING AT 850MB WITH 22C EXTENDING FROM ST LOUIS TO
PEORIA. THE ECMWF IS COOLER WITH 18C BARELY ENTERING WESTERN IL.
WE TRENDED WARMER...BUT STILL ONLY LOW TO MID 80S FOR NOW.

STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. STORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT PASSES FROM
NW TO SE ACROSS IL.

SHIMON

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

614 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHIMON

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

GEELHART

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

318 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG A COLD
FRONT...THEN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO
ILLINOIS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FROM WEST TO EAST. ONE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAKER UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY...SETTING
UP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
IOWA/ILLINOIS BORDER. RADAR SHOWS A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN IOWA...AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN EASTERN MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS. A BROAD
COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST AREAS IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WERE SEEING LESS THAN 0.10" OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

4KM NCEP AND HRRR OUTPUT INDICATE THE LINE WILL MAINTAIN SOME
INTENSITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AS
THE LINE OF STORMS REACHES THE I-55 CORRIDOR. TIMING BASED ON
RADAR AND HRRR HAS THE LINE OF STORMS GENERALLY INTO INDIANA BY
08Z/3 AM. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE NOT FAR OFF FROM THAT
ASSESSMENT...SO WE HAVE UPDATED THE POPS LIKEWISE. BASICALLY,
SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO
CHANCE POPS WERE USED /30-50 PCT/. SOME AREAS MAY SEE A STRONGER
UPDRAFT AND RECEIVED 0.25" RAIN IN A SHORT TIME, WHILE NEARBY
AREAS SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE ARRIVAL OF A CHILLY CANADIAN AIRMASS AS
AIRFLOW BECOMES NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO +6C IN OUR NORTH WITH 9-10C IN
THE SOUTH. ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WHICH WILL WORK TOGETHER WITH INCREASING BULK SHEAR AND
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY...AND ANY RAIN THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL NOT ADD UP TO 0.01"...SO WE WENT WITH SCATTERED
SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SAT AFTN.

CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY IF ANY SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH
FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE
70-73 DEG RANGE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS DO NOT
REACH 70 IF THE 6C LINE AT 850MB DOES REACH OUR COUNTIES. DRY
ADIABATIC MIXING OF 6C FROM 850MB WOULD ONLY PRODUCE A HIGH OF
66F. ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE APPROACH OF
SUNSET.

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES WILL BE A KEY COMPONENT OF THAT HAPPENING...BUT ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE SAT EVE. LOW 50S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. RECORD LOW FOR PIA AND SPI SAT NIGHT IS 53.

SUNDAY MAY BE A CARBON COPY OF SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN
ILLINOIS, AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
COLDER AIR.

MONDAY WILL START A WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS
TO THE EAST AND WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A PROGRESSIVE LOW TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN IL. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
NEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW THE LAST 2 MODEL RUNS...SO IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT LATER RUNS TAKE IT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. WE
REDUCED LIKELY POPS TO CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT TO TREND DOWN...BUT
ADDED SOME LIKELY TO TUES IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS
GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE
DAY IN SOUTHERN IL RIGHT NOW. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE BULK OF THE FORCING FOR PRECIP DEPARTS TO THE EAST WITH THE
LOW.

WARMING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 60S WITH THE SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP
IN THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT, ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AND
500MB SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY...SO MUGGY FEELING AIR WILL RETURN AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. SOME MID 80S FOR HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO 14-16C. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE MORE DRAMATICALLY ON FRIDAY PER THE GFS...WITH A
STRONGER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
ECMWF LAGS THE GFS BY 24 HRS WITH THAT FEATURE.

SHIMON
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE MAIN FOCUS TURNS TO
ADVANCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. HIGH-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
BASED ON HRRR TIMING...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KPIA AFTER 21Z AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST AT KDEC AND KCMI AFTER 23Z. FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER BY MIDNIGHT...SO WILL END
THUNDER MENTION AFTER THE 02 TO 04Z TIME FRAME. WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TEND TO KEEP QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE BEHIND
THE FRONT...UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MAINLY DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA. HAVE THEREFORE SCATTERED OUT THE LOW VFR
CEILINGS AFTER FROPA FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA DIGS
SOUTHWARD...A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN 500MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C...THINK
SCT-BKN CU WILL DEVELOP AT AROUND 5000FT. MAY EVEN BE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA AS WELL...BUT TOO SPOTTY
TO MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE S/SW AT
AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

BARNES
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 916 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

14Z/9AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
KILX CWA...WITH RAIN BEING REPORTED AT BOTH KGBG AND KPIA. AIRMASS
IS INITIALLY QUITE DRY BELOW 850MB...SO RAIN WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG
AND NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON-NORMAL LINE...BUT WILL
HANG ON TO JUST CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR.
THINK SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
THEY APPROACH THE INDIANA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
THAT...HIGH-RES HRRR SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDER FORMING
ALONG A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ZONE UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

BARNES
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 348 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013
PRECIPITATION MOVING CLOSER AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL DRIVE THE FORECAST IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT SLOWLY TAKING OVER THE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE TROF AT H5
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES DRIVING THE FRONT INTO AND
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. COOLER TEMPS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE TROF REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LEAVING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NEXT
ISSUES FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM MON/TUESDAY THAT
THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT ABOUT...THOUGH
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF OVERALL...WITH
A SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE ADVANCE OF THE QPF ON MON NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
FASTER ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE PRE FRONTAL
PRECIP ALREADY TO THE NW AND CREEPING INTO THE FA. ADVANCING THE
POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISO TS IN THE
MORNING...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY SCATTER A BIT INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THE THUNDER WILL MORE LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY.
WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT...THE FORECAST DRIES CONSIDERABLY GOING
INTO SATURDAY. THOUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE RH IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT A BIT OF A
CAP ABOVE 800MB RESULTING IN A BIT OF A LIMITATION TO CONVECTIVE
GROWTH. SO INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT MAY HAVE BEEN A RISK FOR SAT
AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT SHOULD THAT CAP MATERIALIZE.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80...TOMORROW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOL FOR THE END OF
JULY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE
MIDLEVELS...6 TO 7C AT 850...SAT NIGHT TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER
50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AT THE SFC TRYING TO ADVECT SOME WARMER
TEMPS FROM UNDER THE PERSISTENT AND EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT THE WARM UP IS SLOW THROUGH SUN
AND MON. NEXT ISSUE ARRIVES MON NIGHT. GFS IS FAR MORE
CONSERVATIVE FOR ILX YET AGAIN...KEEPING THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND THE ECMWF BEING THE MORE EXPANSIVE WITH THE QPF AND MORE
PROLONGED WITH SOME SLIGHT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ALLBLEND SEEMS TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND WET ECMWF. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS QUASI ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE
COUNTRY IN THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

HJS

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

916 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 916 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

14Z/9AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
KILX CWA...WITH RAIN BEING REPORTED AT BOTH KGBG AND KPIA. AIRMASS
IS INITIALLY QUITE DRY BELOW 850MB...SO RAIN WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG
AND NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON-NORMAL LINE...BUT WILL
HANG ON TO JUST CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST TO THE I-72 CORRIDOR.
THINK SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
THEY APPROACH THE INDIANA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
THAT...HIGH-RES HRRR SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDER FORMING
ALONG A SLOWLY ADVACING COLD FRONT WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ZONE UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

A FRONT WILL BRING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AFFECTING
MAINLY PIA TAF. SPI AND BMI COULD ALSO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
SO WILL HAVE ALL THREE SITES AT VCSH THIS MORNING. DEC AND CMI
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS ATMOSPHERE LACKS MOISTURE AND ALL THE SUPPORT
THAT WAS THERE EARLY IS NOW GONE. THIS CURRENT PCPN IS MAINLY THE
REMNANTS OF OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED WEST OF THE AREA YESTERDAY
EVENING. FRONT THOUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA AND STILL
EXPECTING SOME MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE FRONT MOVES INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA. SO HAVE VCTS FOR EVENING HOURS. CHANCES OF PCPN
WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FROPA THIS EVENING.

AUTEN
&&

HJS

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1141 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

EAST-WEST AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH A WING OF SCATTERED STORMS
INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THIS WILL PENETRATE THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM LINCOLN AND DAVENPORT SHOW A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT NEEDS TO BE SATURATED FIRST...WITH
SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY ONGOING WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE
60-65 RANGE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEWLY-
ARRIVED EVENING NAM MODEL KEEPS THE RAIN OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH
SUNRISE...WHILE THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SOME POST-MIDNIGHT ACTIVITY
ALBEIT ON THE DECREASE. THINK THE PROXIMITY OF THE STORMS IN
SOUTHEAST IOWA WARRANTS A MINOR BUMP IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST CWA...BUT HAVE KEPT THE CWA DRY EAST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE SKY COVER AS THE CIRRUS
THICKENS QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHEAST CWA IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LARGELY BE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ONLY REQUIRED SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

GEELHART

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1140 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH TIMING OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CONVECTION IN EASTERN IOWA IS RUNNING INTO A
BIT OF A WALL WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. AS SUCH...CURRENTLY THINK THE PERIOD THROUGH 12Z WILL BE
DRY AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE INTRODUCED A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH VCTS AT KPIA/KBMI/KSPI ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FURTHER EAST DO NOT REALLY
MOISTEN UP UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...SO LEFT VCTS MENTION AT
KDEC/KCMI. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE CROSSING THE TAF SITES IN THE
00-06Z TIME FRAME...WITH THE NAM MODEL SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG IT.

GEELHART

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

104 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBS...THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST WEST OF A
KPDC TO KCNC LINE AT 17Z. NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG/BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF. TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOW A NARROW OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION AS THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST DUE TO FAVORABLE FORCING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER.

THE TRENDS WITH THE RAP MODEL IS TO SLOWLY RAISE THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THUS MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BASED ON
THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...MAX TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE CLOUDS. ..08..

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THE RAIN IS ESSENTIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS OF 15Z WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLEARING. THE
IMMEDIATE TREND WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE AREA.

LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS TO THE
EAST AND WILL BE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA WITHIN
THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

THE QUESTION NOW IS HOW MUCH DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
DRYING OUT AND THE FORCING IS LIMITED TO ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS OFFER MIXED RESULTS BUT
SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI ON EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ..08..

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED TO THE NORTH OF I-80. RAPID REFRESH
MODEL INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

FORCING/VERTICAL MOTION FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST DROPPING SOUTHEAST CONTINUED TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WAS OCCURRING AT SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE CWA
RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN MN TO NORTHWEST IA TO THE TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

FORECAST FOCUS ON ENDING THE RAIN TODAY THEN NEAR RECORD LOWS TONIGHT.

TODAY...STRONGEST FORCING IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING DRIVING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS INTO THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR
NORTHWEST CWA LATER THIS MORNING REACHING THE MS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN EXITING OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND INTENSITY OF STORMS. HOWEVER...IF MORE SUNSHINE
OCCURS MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE IN OUR
ILLINOIS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AIR ON
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW THE SUN TO RETURN. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE DVN CWA...BUT THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH WILL STILL BE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN
BE EXPECTED BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY NEAR 10 MPH. WILL BE A
COOL NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 49 AT INDEPENDENCE
TO 54 AT MACOMB AND PRINCETON. THESE READINGS WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES SHY OF RECORD LOWS. HOWEVER...IF THE WINDS MANAGE TO GO
CALM FOR A TIME THEN THESE RECORD LOWS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

NEAR RECORD COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOSTLY DRY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD EXCEPT FOR NORMAL
MOISTURE ISSUES OF TOO HIGH BL RH VALUES AND DEWPOINTS IMPACTING
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT AFTER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
VERIFICATION AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY SUPPORTS MORE OF A 60/40
MIX OF THE HI-RES ECMWF AND GFS/GEM-NH. THIS PORTENDS MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SEASONALLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS. MID DAY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR CHAMBER
OF COMMERCE KIND OF WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. 850 TEMPERATURES OF
+5 TO +8C SUPPORTS HIGHS SATURDAY MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S
SOUTH. NEAR RECORD MINS SUGGESTED FOR SUNDAY AM WITH LOCAL TOOLS
SUGGESTING LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF AREA RECORDS LISTED IN
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. SUNDAY...FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGHS 3 TO 5
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...LOWER 70S NORTH TO MIDDLE 70S FAR
SOUTH SECTIONS. OVERALL...THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 10-15+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...POPS MAY NEED LOWERING MON/TUE WITH BEST
FORCING TO THE SOUTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE AS WEST AND NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP AREA FROM WARMING MUCH BEYOND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TRACK OF DISTURBANCE EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE CLARIFIED IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. LOCAL TOOLS
SUGGEST MINS BEYOND TUESDAY AM INTO FRIDAY MAY NEED TRIMMING BY 1-3
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS FOR LATER SHIFTS.

NICHOLS

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY RAISE TO VFR THROUGH 00Z/27 AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS. NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN ALL
TAFS. KBRL HAS THE BEST CHANCE ALBEIT LOW AT SEEING A TSRA SO VCTS
WAS DONE THERE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
IF A SHRA OR TSRA IMPACTS A TAF SITE. AFT 00Z/27 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ..08..

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 27...

MOLINE.........50 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...48 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........48 IN 1971
BURLINGTON.....49 IN 2004

RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 28...

MOLINE.........52 IN 1925
CEDAR RAPIDS...47 IN 1925
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2005+
BURLINGTON.....53 IN 1981

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...HAASE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1150 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
ANOTHER IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. A WARM FRONT RAN FROM THE NEBRASKA
850MB LOW INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BEFORE TURNING SOUTH. MOISTURE WAS
POOLED IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR THE 850MB LOW AND
WARM FRONT FROM NOCTURNAL STORMS.

SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW NEW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH
A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW IN EASTERN
COLORADO. A WARM FRONT RAN FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO LOUISIANA. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 60S FROM
WISCONSIN INTO THE PLAINS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CWFA AND
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE CWFA. THE RAP TRENDS AND OTHER MODELS OF A
POSSIBLE SCENARIO OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWFA
TONIGHT MAY BE STARTING TO PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...RADAR DOES SHOW WEAK
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER NEAR KOMA. THE MCS TOOL SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVING/DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWFA DURING THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING LOOSELY ORGANIZED LATE TONIGHT.

THE SIGNAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL MCS DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS AND
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IS STILL THERE IN ALL THE MODELS. IF
CORRECT...THIS MCS WOULD INTERCEPT THE MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE AREA
AND THUS LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. THOSE AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST CWFA WHERE BETTER
FORCING EXISTS. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER MAY
INITIALLY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY BUT CLEARING IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE
RANGE. ..08..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST REACHING NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z SATURDAY AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH BEST MID/UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. THIS SUPPORTS
THE GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST FRIDAY EVENING THEN
DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE REGION. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTHEASTERN CWFA FOR POTENTIAL DIURNAL SHRA
AS THE H5 COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH. NEAR RECORD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOK ON TRACK. KEPT SATURDAYS LOWS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COLD AIR SC MOVING
THE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MINS FOR SATURDAY STAY JUST ABOVE
THE RECORDS. SUNDAY LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AND LESS OF THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER SUPPORTS COOLER MINS THAN SATURDAY AND A
BETTER POTENTIAL OF REACHING RECORD MINS. THE COOL AIRMASS WILL
KEEP HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
FOR LATE JULY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE GREAT LAKES REGION UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. A S/W ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WESTERLY
FLOW REGIME IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A PLAINS MCS IN
THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE S/W AND MOVING THE MCS EAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE 12Z
GFS/GEM BROUGHT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH IA
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF WAS A TAD SOUTH FOCUSING
MORE ON NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL.
WITH ALL OF THE MODELS HITTING SOME PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER S/W MOVING THROUGH BY THURSDAY
BUT THE FEATURES LOOK WEAK AT THIS TIME SO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW
CHANCE POPS ARE MENTIONED FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK AND SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST BY WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...AFFECTING ALL AREA TAF
SITES THROUGH 15Z. MAINLY MVFR WITH SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH THIS COMPLEX. BEYOND
THAT...A COLD FRONT NOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL PUSH ACROSS IOWA AND
INTO ILLINOIS FRIDAY MORNING...CLEARING ALL TAF SITES BY 19Z. AS
THE FRONT PASSSES...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH.

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 27...

MOLINE.........50 IN 1962+
CEDAR RAPIDS...48 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........48 IN 1971
BURLINGTON.....49 IN 2004+

RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 28...

MOLINE.........52 IN 1925
CEDAR RAPIDS...47 IN 1925
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2005+
BURLINGTON.....53 IN 1981

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DMD
CLIMATE...14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

828 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

MESSY WEATHER/FORECAST SITUATION. ELEVATED BOUNDARY HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR EAST SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
RADAR HAS SHOWN TRENDS OF THIS DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. RUC HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS. NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED
TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PLUS RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT STAYS NEAR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO THE
ELEVATED CINH DECREASES TO NEXT TO NOTHING BY THE END OF THE NIGHT
WITH ELEVATED CAPE CONTINUING.

SO LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO
INCREASED POPS TO TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT BUT MAY NOT HAVE GONE FAR
ENOUGH AND KEPT THE PREVAILING WEATHER AS THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO
UPPED QPF THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS PER
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AS WELL. LOOKING AT TOMORROW...THERE IS A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
ALONG WITH EASTERLY WINDS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH SOME PLACES NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S. SO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ALONG
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY
BUILD OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE FOCUS REMAINING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE LOW
REMAINS IN THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO/PANHANDLE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS
THE UPPER RIDGE AND EMERGES OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT
FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID DAY ON SUNDAY.
HYDRO ISSUES MAY BECOME A CONCERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY IF MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR AS LESS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MOVE IN. SHOULD
HAVE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY TIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN 1/3 OR SO
OF THE AREA. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. FOR
TUESDAY CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MID TO UPPER 50S WEST...AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE. FOR
MONDAY NIGHT UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WEST...LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
MONDAY 75 TO 80 IN THE MCCOOK TO NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS WITH LOW
TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. FOR TUESDAY HIGHS MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMING INTO THE LOW 90S
THURSDAY. SOME COOLER AIR MOVES DOWN ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (NORTH TO SOUTH). FOR SATURDAY LOW TO MID
80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING DUE TO GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...ONLY CHOSE TO GO
WITH MVFR IN THE MORNING EVEN THOUGH THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR IS
THERE...JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN IFR AT THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO BOTH TAF SITES.
GUIDANCE SEEMED CONFIDENT IN BRINGING THIS INTO BOTH TAF SITES SO
WENT WITH A PREVAILING GROUP FOR -SHRA FOR KGLD AT 07Z AND KMCK AT
08Z LASTING THROUGH 15Z. ALSO INCLUDED 4SM VISIBILITY FOR ANY FOG
THAT MIGHT DEVELOP...THIS MAY CHANGE WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCES.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 15Z
TOMORROW...BUT NOT SURE WHERE THE COVERAGE WILL BE AT THIS TIME SO
LEFT OUT VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...ALW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

656 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONSISTS OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SITTING ABOVE NORTHERN MEXICO, SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND TEXAS. A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
70+ KNOT JET EXTENDS FROM WYOMING, THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, AND
INTO OKLAHOMA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. AS YOU HEAD TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES APPARENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES AT 11AM RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED TO LOWER 80S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

THE SURFACE LOW MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THEN INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AT THE
SURFACE AND THE 70+ JET ALOFT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTING TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND THE I-70
CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON AND BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST. A
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGH RANGING
FROM THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS WET DUE TO A WARM FRONT BEING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL
BE SLOWLY MOVING OVER WESTERN KANSAS. LIKELY POPS WILL COVER OUR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND SOME SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HAYS TO MEADE. THE HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THERE AND THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LIKELY CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL EXIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE DOWNWARD INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY MONDAY AS THEY ALSO WILL TREND TO THE EAST. TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY MUCH OF THE DAY WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION, BUT AS A FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AND THAT SHORT WAVE ADVANCES EAST, THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM COLORADO,
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S RANGE.

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES, FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL
CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS. JUST WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE WE WOULD BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, PER THE ECMWF MODEL. ALSO A WARM FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE
FOLKS AROUND WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD BE DELIGHTED AT THE NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 90F, THURSDAY`S IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S, AND FRIDAY`S PEAKING
IN THE LOWER 90S NEAR HAYS AND WAKEENEY, AND APPROACHING THE 100F
DEGREE MARK DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FRONT WILL DIVE
BACK SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA SATURDAY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT
FROM THE MID 80S NORTH OF I-70 TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

A SURFACE STATIONARY/WEAK COLD FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS,
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS THE FOCUS FOR A
COUPLE OF DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. BOTH CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS WILL HAVE IMPACTS FOR THE TERMINALS AT HYS, GCK AND DDC AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON HRRR MODEL
TRENDS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
KHYS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG
OUTFLOW THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE AT GCK AND KDDC AS THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAR MORE DRY ADIABATIC IN THE LOW LAYERS
AT THESE SITES THAN FAR BEHIND THE FRONT AT HYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 83 65 86 / 50 60 60 40
GCK 63 83 65 87 / 70 50 60 40
EHA 66 88 65 90 / 60 50 60 30
LBL 66 88 67 90 / 60 50 60 30
HYS 60 76 64 80 / 70 70 70 50
P28 63 80 67 87 / 40 60 70 50

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...HOVORKA_42
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...RUSSELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

AN AREA OF SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT LATE MORNING.
LATEST RUC SUGGESTS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION EAST OF
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. HOWEVER THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

KED

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

WE BEGIN THE FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STRONG INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING AS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE MAIN
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS NEW
DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY SEEING RATES ABOUT 1-2 INCHES AN
HOUR WITH THIS EFFICIENT ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 1PM. CANNOT RULE OUT A FLOOD WARNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY
OVER THE SATURATED SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING THE ACTIVITY WILL
IMPACT SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH PART OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT CLEARING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND IT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...PUSHING ALL ACTIVITY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND THE WAVE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DEEPER PV
ANOMALY WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WAVE WILL
HELP TO SPARK A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN NEBRASKA THAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE LAST COUPLE
OF NAM AND ECMWF RUNS ARE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR
SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS HINTS AT IT AS WELL. HAVE INCREASED POPS...BUT
KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS.

THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WHOLE AREA WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS WARM MOIST AIR RETURNS
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST INTO SUNDAY AND HAVE KEPT THE
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE COOL FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
CONSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN/AROUND THE AREA WHICH
WILL MODIFY THE LATE JULY AIRMASS. EXPECTING NEARLY 5-10 DEGREE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...WITH THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE LACKING MUCH EASTWARD MOTION WITH THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOWS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. OFF
AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY STICKING AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED....BUT CURRENTLY THINK THERE WILL BE MORE TIME DRY THAN
WET BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP TO NEARER TO THE LOW 90S NORMAL FOR THE END OF JULY/FIRST
OF AUGUST.

BILLINGS

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

MOIST LOW LEVELS AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN LINGER CU/STRATOCU MVFR CIGS AND SHALLOW CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR ON NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

KED

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 85 62 83 65 / 10 0 10 30
HUTCHINSON 85 61 81 65 / 10 0 10 30
NEWTON 85 60 79 64 / 10 0 10 30
ELDORADO 84 60 80 63 / 20 0 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 84 62 84 65 / 20 0 10 20
RUSSELL 84 61 81 64 / 10 0 10 40
GREAT BEND 85 61 83 64 / 10 0 20 40
SALINA 85 60 81 64 / 10 0 20 30
MCPHERSON 85 61 80 64 / 10 0 10 30
COFFEYVILLE 79 62 83 64 / 60 10 10 10
CHANUTE 80 60 80 63 / 30 0 20 10
IOLA 80 59 79 62 / 20 0 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 79 61 80 64 / 40 0 10 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

1120 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

KED

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

BILLINGS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

BILLINGS

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL EXIT SOUTHEASTERN KS BY MID
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT CNU EARLY ON. BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL KS WHERE PARTIAL
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER WET GROUND. CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT EXPECTED FROM
LATE MORNING UNTIL EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

JMC

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 85 62 83 65 / 10 10 10 30
HUTCHINSON 85 61 81 65 / 10 10 10 30
NEWTON 85 60 79 64 / 10 10 10 30
ELDORADO 84 60 80 63 / 20 10 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 84 62 84 65 / 20 10 10 20
RUSSELL 84 61 81 64 / 10 10 10 40
GREAT BEND 85 61 83 64 / 10 10 10 40
SALINA 85 60 81 64 / 10 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 85 61 80 64 / 10 10 10 30
COFFEYVILLE 79 62 83 64 / 70 10 10 10
CHANUTE 80 60 80 63 / 30 10 20 10
IOLA 80 59 79 62 / 20 10 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 79 61 80 64 / 60 10 10 10

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

1130 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST POPS FOR NORTHEAST KS HAS WANED A
LITTLE SINCE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IN SOUTHEASTERN NEB HAS FALLEN
APART. THE HRRR FLIPS BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND
SCATTERED STORMS WHILE THE RUC AND NAM CONTINUE THEIR BULLISH QPF
PROG. THERE HAS RECENTLY BEEN SOME NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS REPUBLIC COUNTY AND THE RAP AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST KS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY 850
FLOW. SO AT THIS POINT WILL STICK WITH THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE
WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE TONED DOWN THE MENTION OF THUNDER
EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

BASED ON 22Z OBS AND OBJECTIVE STREAM LINE ANALYSIS..IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE AREAS OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE...THIS WOULD FAVOR
CONVECTION STAYING GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. THE NAM AND RAP SHOW A
LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WITH SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SO WHILE THE
BETTER SHORTWAVE FORCING MAY END UP SKIRTING THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK STORMS THAT FILL IN THE GAP
ALONG THE FRONT IN NEB FROM THE MO RIVER TO NORTHWEST KS SHOULD
PERSIST AND MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST KS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR A LITTLE WHILE TO SEE IF IN FACT THIS IS THE CASE...BUT MAY
NEED TO ADJUST POPS UP A LITTLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST THIS EVENING WITH
REASONABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
ORGANIZATIONS. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO SHALLOW UP THE LAPSE RATES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOPEFULLY THIS MEANS WE WILL JUST GET SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

SEVERAL FORCING MECHANISMS COMING INTO PLAY FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ROTATING
ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE GREAT BASING RIDGE AND INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AT 12Z WITH 40-50M HEIGHT FALLS /HIGH FOR JULY/ AT THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA VICINITY RAOBS. WEAK RIDGING AT 700MB AND 850MB
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LEADING TO SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY
MODEST CONVECTION IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS TODAY. 20Z OBSERVATIONS AND
PRESSURE CHANGES SUGGEST A COLD FROM FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH VEERING UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE
PLATTEVILLE COLORADO WIND PROFILER. MIXED LAYER CAPE REMAINS RATHER
LIMITED WITH VALUES IN THE 1000 J/KG RANGE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE AND FINALLY
FRONTAL FORCING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS
RISE. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING AND
INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH SO KEPT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SEVERE CHANCES SEEM SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND ONGOING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LIMITING FURTHER INSOLATION.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE AREA AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WILL
LOWER HUMIDITY AND YIELD LOWS IN THE 50S. SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY FOR THE MOST PART, BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL WAVE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAY CLIP THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
CONTINUES EASTWARD IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FROM THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE THE HIGHEST. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP MORNING SHOWERS BEFORE DRYING OUT AGAIN.

NEXT WEDNESDAY SOME WEAK FORCING MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS THEY ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST IN A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BETTER CHANCES COME NEXT THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
RETURNS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
AN MCS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING INTO EASTERN KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 80S TO LOWER TO MID 90S FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE 00Z NAM AND THE 03Z
RAP CONTINUING TO SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD FROM 07Z TO 13Z WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IF PRECIP HOLD TOGETHER. BOTH THE
RAP AND NAM HANG ONTO THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
FRIDAY SO HAVE NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST SCATTERING
OUT TO VFR.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

UPDATE...WOLTERS
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...WOLTERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

955 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE TIMED THIS AREA OF PRECIP ENE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE PATH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

HAVE MODIFIED POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
INCORPORATING SOME TRENDS FROM THE RUC AND HRRR. THE SHORT TERM RAPID
UPDATE MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
IN...AND RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS EVENING SEEM TO LEND SOME SUPPORT
TO THIS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO CROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
FRONT SCHEDULED TO CROSS TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY
SUN MORNING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA WITH A DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MASS. A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE
THUNDER...BUT MOST SHOULD BE JUST LIGHT RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. COOLER AIR WILL BE SLOW
TO INVADE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE 50S BUT WITH ENOUGH
REMAINING MOISTURE THAT VALLEY FOG MAY STILL BE A PROBLEM. THE COOLER
AIR WILL BATTLE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE TO HOLD SUNDAY HIGHS TO THE UPPER
70S AND THEN WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER 50S. EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW LIFTING TO THE NE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVERHEAD OF THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
A STRONG JET IN THE UPPER LEVELS PULLING IN DRY AIR FROM THE
NE...ALONG WITH LIGHT NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BE LOW.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH NEAR 80...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE HIGHER
HILLS ALONG THE KY/VA BORDER. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL...POSSIBLY DROPPING LOWER THAN THE 60 DEGREE
MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS.

BY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERNY KY WILL PERSIST IN THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOWEVER...THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE.
WHILE THE 500MB LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE...MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL
FIND ITSELF IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW. WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW A SHORTWAVE
WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD FROM THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PROGRESS WITH THE SYSTEM...AND TRAVERSE EASTERN
KY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE LAST TWO
RUNS OF THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE CONVECTION/S ARRIVAL IN EASTERN
KY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GEM IS
AGREEING MORE WITH THE GFS...BUT THE 0Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS BOTH
FASTER IN TIMING AND HIGHER IN COVERAGE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. SINCE
THIS IS DAY 4...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGE AND BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A CONSENSUS
AT THIS TIME ON PRECIP TIMING AND COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...NAM AND GFS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...WELL BEFORE ANY PRECIP STARTS. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN MORE
SRLY BY AFTERNOON...PULLING IN WARMER MOISTER AIR FROM THE SOUTH.
NOT ONLY WILL THIS HELP WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL ALSO MEAN THE RETURN OF A MORE HUMID
SUMMER AIR MASS.

AS FAR AS INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THERE REALLY ISN/T
MUCH. WINDS ARE SHOWING A DECENT VEERING PATTERN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOW LEVELS...BUT THE LAPSE RATES AND RESULTING POSITIVE ENERGY ARE
JUST NOT IMPRESSIVE. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND PWAT
VALUES NEARING 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES EVERY SIX HOURS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST GFS RUN. WHILE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS NEVER OUT OF THE
QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT...THE
MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD JUST BE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING AND COME TO AN END DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK IN ACROSS THE REGION AND MAKE
IT/S WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THURS MORN/EARLY
AFTERNOON...DRY AIR ALOFT...LLVL MOISTURE...AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...WILL TRIGGER A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME ISL/SCT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST/. THE WINDOW FOR THIS HAPPENING
WILL BE CLOSED PRETTY QUICKLY THOUGH AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY TO THE
SURFACE AND A LLVL INVERSION FORMS BY 0Z FRIDAY. THIS INVERSION AND
DRY AIR /HIGH PRESSURE/ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON AN INCREASING
TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH FRIDAY HAVING THE
HOTTEST TEMPS FORECASTED OF ANY OTHER DAY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S ON THIS DAY. BUT WITH A
DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE NE...EXPECT THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO REMAIN AT BAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOME LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO. THEY WILL OCCUR NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 2 AM. LOCALIZED IFR MAY OCCUR IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THERE COULD ALSO BE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND LASTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT OF THIS IS LOW. DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BATTLE WITH THE TENDENCY FOR THE AIR
NEAR THE GROUND TO DECOUPLE FROM THE FLOW ALOFT AT NIGHT. IF SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A TIME AND DECOUPLING OCCURS...FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WITH IFR WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IF SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
DECOUPLING DOES NOT OCCUR...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS
EXTENSIVE. WHATEVER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OCCUR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY...LEAVING VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

917 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

1229 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE TODAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN EXPECTED OVER MORE EASTERN AREAS OF MAINE WHILE NEW HAMPSHIRE
SEES THE LOWEST RAINFALL TOTALS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY GIVING US VERY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES LATE SUNDAY THEN EXIT THE COAST ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR TRENDS. THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PICK UP
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ALONG THE MIDCOAST AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
MAIN BULK OF PCPN RIDING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...FROM THE
PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST...BRINGING A QUICK INCH OR
TWO OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR EASTERN AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISC...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA...RESULTING IN
SLOWING DOWN THE ONSET OF RAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO COASTAL AND ADJACENT INTERIOR ZONES BUT HASN`T
PUSHED MUCH FURTHER INLAND AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECT RAIN TO
SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY.

THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER EASTERN AREAS...WHILE
NEW HAMPSHIRE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY SEE
MUCH LESS RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULDN`T WARM UP TOO MUCH TODAY
DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS LIKELY IN NH
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. BREEZY NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...MORE SO OVER MAINE THAN NH.

GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM AND MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEAR TERM FCST. USED HPC QPF TO START...THOUGH DID ADJUST
SOMEWHAT. QPF WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE MAINE MOUNTAINS TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN NH TO AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE MID COAST OF MAINE.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC LOW TRACKS INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM IN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SEE SOME
CLEARING AND HAD A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. TOTAL QPF THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NH TO AROUND TWO INCHES OVER THE MID COAST OF
MAINE WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. NOT ANTICIPATING FLOOD
ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT BUT THERE IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT IF
CLOSER TO 3 /OR MORE/ INCHES OF RAIN FALL THEN THERE MAY BE SOME
MINOR FLOOD PROBLEMS OVER THE MID COAST OF MAINE AND INTO AREAS
JUST TO THE SW...W AND N. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT PUT UP A FLOOD
WATCH. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS...MET/MAV MOS AND HPC/RFC
QPF FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITING INTO THE
MARITIMES...AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDING
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING ROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND IN ITS WAKE. THE UPSHOT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BE THAT EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN THE DAILIES...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY THEN EXITS THE COAST DURING MONDAY. AN
UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. LOWEST CONDITIONS
OVER MORE EASTERN AND COASTAL AREAS AND HIGHEST CONDITIONS OVER
MORE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THUS EXPECT RKD...AUG...PWM AND
PSM TO HAVE LOWEST CIG/VSBY WHILE LEB AND HIE THE HIGHEST CIG/VSBY
WITH CON IN BETWEEN. AS THE RAIN ENDS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT EXPECT
SOME CLEARING TO FOLLOW BUT THAT WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE THE MOST CLEARING BUT ALSO HAD
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...

SUN PM - MON...MVFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN NO MORE THAN A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS
INTO TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO THE NE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE TODAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF
25 KT AND MAYBE EVEN UP TO 30 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FT
OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS LET UP AND DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND MAY NOT DROP BELOW SCA
LEVELS UNTIL SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SCA LEVELS ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SUN NIGHT - MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLD.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

938 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR TRENDS. THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY PICK UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS MAIN BULK OF PCPN RIDING JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...FROM THE PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST...BRINGING A QUICK 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS JUST
BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
EASTERN AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. LOWEST CONDITIONS
OVER MORE EASTERN AND COASTAL AREAS AND HIGHEST CONDITIONS OVER
MORE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THUS EXPECT RKD...AUG...PWM AND
PSM TO HAVE LOWEST CIG/VSBY WHILE LEB AND HIE THE HIGHEST CIG/VSBY
WITH CON IN BETWEEN. AS THE RAIN ENDS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT EXPECT
SOME CLEARING TO FOLLOW BUT THAT WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE THE MOST CLEARING BUT ALSO HAD
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...

SUN PM - MON...MVFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS.

LONG TERM...

SUN NIGHT - MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLD.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

936 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR TRENDS. THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY PICK UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS MAIN BULK OF PCPN RIDING JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...FROM THE PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST...BRINGING A QUICK 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS JUST
BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EASTERN AREAS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...

SUN PM - MON...MVFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS.

LONG TERM...

SUN NIGHT - MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLD.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

854 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR TRENDS. THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY PICK UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS MAIN BULK OF PCPN RIDING JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...FROM THE PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST...BRINGING A QUICK 3 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EASTERN AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING.

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. LOWEST CONDITIONS
OVER MORE EASTERN AND COASTAL AREAS AND HIGHEST CONDITIONS OVER
MORE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THUS EXPECT RKD...AUG...PWM AND
PSM TO HAVE LOWEST CIG/VSBY WHILE LEB AND HIE THE HIGHEST CIG/VSBY
WITH CON IN BETWEEN. AS THE RAIN ENDS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT EXPECT
SOME CLEARING TO FOLLOW BUT THAT WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE THE MOST CLEARING BUT ALSO HAD
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...

SUN PM - MON...MVFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS.

LONG TERM...

SUN NIGHT - MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLD.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

851 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR TRENDS. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS MAIN BULK OF PCPN RIDING
JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...FROM THE PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS EAST...BRINGING A QUICK 3 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...

SUN PM - MON...MVFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS.

LONG TERM...

SUN NIGHT - MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLD.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GAYLORD MI

621 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
THROUGH THE STATE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN UPPER
PENINSULA.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE JULY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

CHANGES THIS HOUR: GOING FORECAST DOING JUST FINE AS OF THIS
WRITING...WITH SOME COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WEATHER AS RAIN
HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
NICELY WITH ARRIVAL OF RAINFALL..SO HAVE TRENDED NEAR TERM
TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL.

SEVERE THREAT HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED WITH MUCAPES DROPPING CWA-WIDE
OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE FOLLOWING SUIT AS OF
THIS WRITING...BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER CERTAINLY LIKELY THROUGH
THE EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE UPSWING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
WOODS. WATER VAPOR DEFINITELY HELPS EXPLAIN PART OF THE REASON...WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH GOING NEGATIVE TILT BACK
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. NICE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ALSO NOTED...WITH
CORE OF 50+ KNOT H5 WINDS ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. DEEP LAYER DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH IN-PLACE RESPECTABLY
MOIST AIRMASS (PWAT VALUES PER RAP GUIDANCE NEAR 1.5 INCHES) HELPING
INDUCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MAIN LINE OF STORMS TIED TO
WISCONSIN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN COLD FRONT/FRONTAL WAVE WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER DYNAMICS ARE BETTER JUXTAPOSED. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AS SUFFICIENT ML CAPE DEVELOPMENT (UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG) AND OBVIOUS
COOLING OF EARLIER H8-H7 WARM NOSE HAS TIPPED THE SCALE TO MOIST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SO FAR...THINGS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING
THEMSELVES...WITH JUST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UNDER THE HEAVIER
CELLS. APPEARS A MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN IS IN THE OFFING THIS
EVENING AS ABOVE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE AXIS SPREAD EAST. FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTER ON SUCH...SPECIFICALLY TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

UPSCALE GROWTH WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS AS DEEP LAYER
DYNAMICS ONLY INCREASE HEADING INTO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO GET THE BOOT EAST AS MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DOES THE SAME...AND WILL SIMPLY FOLLOW IT AND BEST UPWARD QG
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/STORM TIMING. EXPECT ALL AREAS TO GET WET...WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER (LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH). MAIN LINE OF ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST THIS EVENING...EXITING OFF THE SUNRISE SIDE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. TEMPORAL DETAIL ACCOUNTS FOR SUCH...USING
CATEGORICAL COVERAGE FOR SPATIAL PURPOSES. NOT OVERLY ENTHUSED ABOUT
SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH ML CAPE SOMEWHAT ON THE LEAN SIDE...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN SO. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES
TO OVER 30 KNOTS...WITH 40 KNOT CORE SLIDING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUST/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILER WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...BUT A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. INTERESTINGLY...BACKED LAKE
INDUCED FLOW ACROSS THE TIP THE MITT/NORTHEAST LOWER/EASTERN UPPER
HAS RESULTED IN A TOUCH BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH EVEN SOME
HINTS OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. SPOTTER REPORTS NEGATIVE...
HOWEVER...WITH JUST LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REPORTED WITH THESE CELLS.
WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO MONITOR. POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP RATHER CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
INITIAL SHOT OF CAA NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH LOWS BY SUN-UP
RANGING FROM THE 50S WEST...TO LOWER 60S ALONG NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE.

DRY SLOT CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
PINWHEELS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OFF THE DECK PROFILES REMAIN
RATHER DRY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS REMAIN
TO OUR WEST. CAA DROPS H8 TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS...MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO ENTICE A LAKE RESPONSE (GULP!).
THAT SAID...NOT REALLY ENTHUSED ABOUT LAKE POTENTIAL...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINING UPSTREAM AND RATHER WEAK/DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS. MAY SEE SOME POP-UP ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LAND MASS DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
NAM-WRF DEPICTIONS ARE REALIZED. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST HEAVILY IN
THIS DIRECTION...FOCUSING "BEST" SHOWER POTENTIAL TO
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THUNDER THREAT NOT INCLUDED...DISCOUNTING THE NAM
AT THIS TIME. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HAVE NUDGED READINGS UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT NO DOUBT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW LATE
JULY NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

A RATHER BLOCKED LOOK REMAINS TO THE OVERALL HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN...WITH REX BLOCKING FOUND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PACIFIC...AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOUND AROUND IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC /40W/. IN BETWEEN WE ARE LEFT WITH MEAN TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR WEEKEND WEATHER. LOOKING AHEAD...THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE VERY SLOW TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH PROGGED TO ACTUALLY RETROGRADE A BIT
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN AND BECOMING
INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS IDEA IS REFLECTED IN
THE LATEST NAO ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...MAINTAINING AN OVERALL NEGATIVE
PHASE/BLOCKED/COOLISH PATTERN UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST BEFORE
TRENDING MORE NEUTRAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MIGHT AS WELL RIP THE JULY AND AUGUST
PAGE RIGHT OFF THE CALENDAR...AS PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
NOTHING SHORT OF FALL-LIKE. FIRST OFF..APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IS
SCHEDULED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BECOME CLOSED OFF BY
SUNDAY AS A 555 DM LOW /YIKES!/. THE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY IS AROUND
3 SD BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PER GEFS STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES. CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE
CWA...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING AOB 5C DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BASED
ON PATTERN RECOGNITION AND ABUNDANCE OF H85-H7 MOISTURE PRESENT
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...LOOKING LIKE A PRIME SETUP FOR SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IF WE CAN GET
JUST ENOUGH INSOLATION...DESPITE OVERALL CLOUDY LOOK TO THE
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...ANY SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING MAIN LOW WILL
ALSO CREATE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST
FOR INLAND SPOTS AS I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT
LAPSE RATES AND INSOLATION TO PRODUCE ANY APPRECIABLE CAPE AND
CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO PRODUCE THUNDER. COULD FORESEE SOME GRAUPEL
BEING MIXED GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT...BUT TOO SOON TO
INCLUDE SUCH SMALL/MESOSCALE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST ATTM. HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE 60 DEGREE MARK BASED ON
THIS VERY COOL PATTERN...AN KNOCKED OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE
INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES.

OF BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN POTENTIAL /YES...LAKE
EFFECT/...LAKE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND AFOREMENTIONED H85
TEMPS WILL CREATE DELTA T`S AROUND 13 TO 18C. THERE IS A DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE OF THE MAIN 1000-850 MB FLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR NW
LOWER...BUT THE CONSENSUS OFF THE NAM/GEM/ECMWF IS FOR A WEST TO
NORTHWEST ONSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ALBEIT FAIRLY LIGHT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT THUNDER WITH LAKE-INDUCED CAPE
VALUES HOVERING AROUND 750 J/KG BASED OFF NAM AND SREF BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...AND LEFT SLT CHC THUNDER FOR LAKE EFFECT REGIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES WITH THE UPPER
LOW...ALSO LOOKING LAKE A GOOD SETUP FOR WATERSPOUTS OVER ALL OF THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...ALONG WITH THE CORE OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING.
DELTA T`S WILL STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NORTHWEST LOWER...ALONG WITH WATERSPOUTS FOR THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CUTOFF LOW PROGGED TO BE CLEAR OF THE
REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE IN OVERHEAD UNDER A WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME.
THE REGION SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOL
NIGHTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE
WNW FLOW REGIME DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. A SECONDARY STRONGER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO FOLLOW QUICK ON ITS
HEELS BY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
SECOND WAVE...WITH THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE WAVE. WILL HOLD OFF ADDING POPS FOR FRIDAY FOR NOW...AS I DON`T
WANT TO CLUTTER UP THE EXTENDED TOO MUCH WITH AN ALREADY FAIRLY BUSY
WEATHER PATTERN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND STORMS...THE MAIN CORE OF WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AS THIS OCCURS. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH
FOR GUSTY CONVECTION INDUCED WINDS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. POST-
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN IN MVFR
CATEGORY. MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE SATURDAY...WITH SOME VERY LOW END
SHOWER POTENTIAL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST TO
WNW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

MARINE...GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT...DESPITE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY ROTATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES. PERIODIC SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...NS
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

418 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...NS
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1230 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR IS HEADED TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS WATERSPOUTS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO THE 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

INCREASED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING
CLOUD TOPS AND A BAROCLINIC LEAF IN WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS DRAWING IN HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM THE SOUTH WITH VALUES IN MI EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO
OVER 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR THIS AIRMASS. GIVEN
THE FORCING WITH THE WAVE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON...THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH IT.
AHEAD OF THE LOW WE/LL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
DECENT DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF A MUSKEGON
TO CLARE LINE. PRETTY STRONG DPVA COUPLED WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG...A 30 KT LLJ...AND BULK SHEAR NEAR 45 KTS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE OVER THE NRN CWA. INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD WIND AS THE MAIN THREAT TODAY. AS PWATS CLIMB
TO AN INCH AND A HALF THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TOO.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WE/LL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE DAY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE A FEW STRONG
STORMS TOO...THIS TIME EAST OF US-127. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE IN
THE ERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE/LL HAVE A NARROW WINDOW WHERE
SOME STRONG DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG/LI/S
NEAR -4C/BULK SHEAR 35-40 KTS WILL BE AIDED BY THE COLD POOL AT H5
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GIVEN
LAKE DELTA T/S IN THE UPPER TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS VERY POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL COME TO AN END
ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER AIR SYSTEM SUPPORTING IT FINALLY MOVES FAR
ENOUGH EAST. THAT WILL END THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING MONDAY. WHAT SHOULD FOLLOW IS AT LEAST 24 HOURS OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NO PRECIPITATION. BEYOND THAT IT IS ANY
ONES GUESS WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT IS NOT AT ALL CLEAR JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT CANADIAN SYSTEM
CAN DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

CURRENTLY THERE IS AN OMEGA BLOCK FROM THE BERING SEA EASTWARD
ACROSS ALASKA. THAT ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST WITH TIME AND BY
SUNDAY IT WOULD SEEM THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF
KAMCHATKA (WEST SIDE OF THE OMEGA BLOCK) TRIES TO PHASE WITH A
SYSTEM NORTH OF ALASKA. THAT IN TURN PHASES TWO JET STREAKS THAT
THEN DIG SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST CANADA. THAT IN TURN HELPS TO
DEEPEN ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUR ISSUE IS
JUST HOW DEEP DOES THIS EASTERN TROUGH GET? THE GFS VERSION IS
FLATTER THAN THE ECWMF (SYSTEM STAYS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES) BUT
GIVEN THE FREQUENCY WITH WHICH WE HAVE SEEN THESE EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA TROUGHS THIS YEAR DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES... I HAVE TO
FAVOR THE DEEPER ECMWF ON THIS ONE.

AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING EAST IN
NEAR ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WOULD SEEM THAT SYSTEM WOULD
PASS JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN TUESDAY THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER MICHIGAN AT THAT TIME (BETWEEN THE DIGGING CANADIAN SYSTEM
AND THE DEPARTING CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WOULD BY THEN BE OVER
QUEBEC). THIS WOULD SUGGEST TO ME OUR BEST CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
GIVEN THE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM I HAVE LOW POPS WED - THU AND FOR NOW WILL CALL THAT
GOOD. IF NOTHING ELSE IT SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN
TEMPERATURE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING TO MVFR TONIGHT AS CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER AND
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO THE IFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY IMPROVING BACK TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

OMR CAME IN WITH SOME BIGGER WAVES SO WILL KEEP THE BEACH HAZARDS
GOING. HRRR SHOWS WINDS INCREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
WAVES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

A HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUS LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ845>849.

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1120 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THERE ARE TWO ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST... FIRST IS THE CONVECTION
TIMING THE SECOND IS WHEN WILL THE CIGS/VSBY FALL OR BELOW VFR?

USING A COMBINATION OF THE GFS...NAM...RAP...HRRR MODELS IT SEEMS
A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER WISCONSIN AND MOVE EAST TO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN NEAR MKG
AROUND 21Z OR SO THEN REACH TO JXN BTWN 03Z AND 06Z. IT ALSO SEEMS
SOME SORT OF WAVE WILL BE FORMING ON THE FRONT SO THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGER AT THE MORE EASTERN TAF SITES.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THUNDERSTORMS I PUT VCTS.

AS FOR CIGS.... I USED THE NAM 900 TO 950 MEAN RH AS A PROXY FOR
MVFR CIGS AND THAT COMES IN JUST BEHIND THE SHOWERS (21Z MKG TO
07Z AT JXN). SINCE WINDS BECOME LIGHT NEAR THE COLD FRONT... SEEMS
IFR CIGS WOULD BE LIKELY THEN. HOWEVER THE FRONT DOES NOT GET EAST
OF AZO BEFORE 12Z(BASED ON NAM12 TIMING) SO I KEPT THE WIND FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THE EASTER TAF SITES.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

OMR CAME IN WITH SOME BIGGER WAVES SO WILL KEEP THE BEACH HAZARDS
GOING. HRRR SHOWS WINDS INCREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
WAVES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

A HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUS LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ845>849.

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

111 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

HIGH PRESSURE IS PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...
ALLOWING A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS TO TAKE
AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...GENERATING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY...KEEPING UNSETTLED AUTUMN LIKE
WEATHER IN THE AIR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

CHANGES THIS HOUR: CONVECTION-INDUCED VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SPAWN
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG ADVANCING DEEP MOISTURE PLUME. OVER
THE PAST HOUR...EASTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION HAS HAD TROUBLE MAKING
MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS...BUT IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE AS OF
THIS WRITING. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO UP POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH CATEGORICAL FOR THE TIP OF THE MITT/EASTERN
UPPER...AND TAPERING OFF AS YOU HEAD SOUTH /PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
M-32/ WHERE DRY AIR WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN GRADUALLY COMING DOWN CONVECTION HEADS
EAST IN TO MORE STABLE AIRMASS...AND FULLY EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

CHANGES THIS HOUR: MQT 88D IMAGERY DISPLAYS COMPACT YET IMPRESSIVE
VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION THAT HAS GROWN
SOMEWHAT UPSCALE IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. THIS VORT IS INTERACTING
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME TO EXPAND SHOWERS
/AND SOME THUNDER/ INTO WESTERN CHIP/MACK AS OF THIS WRITING.
SATURATION HAS ONLY REACHED DOWN INTO THE MID-LEVELS AT THIS
POINT...BUT AS SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...EXPECT
ONGOING ECHOES TO EXPAND EAST THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT AND THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN UPPER. WILL UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THESE
AREAS WITH CHANCE /OR LESS/ REMAINING SOUTH OF A TVC-GLR-APN LINE.
MUCAPE PLUME CONTINUES TO MAKE LITTLE/NO EASTWARD PROGRESS...SO
CURRENT TREND OF THUNDER DIMINISHING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST WILL
CONTINUE...WITH NO SEVERE THREAT FORESEEN OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

CHANGES THIS HOUR: IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE GROWTH OVER CENTRAL UPPER
OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS LED TO AN EXPANDING BAND OF RETURNS
SPREADING EAST TOWARDS CHIP/MACK. WHILE AIRMASS DOWNSTAIRS
CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY DRY /00Z RAOB IN PROGRESS/ THINK THAT SOME
OF THESE RETURNS WILL REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND
HAVE SPED UP POPS HERE ACCORDINGLY. WILL ALSO ADJUST OVERNIGHT
POPS TO SPEED UP EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER EASTERN UPPER AND SLOW IT
TO THE SOUTH OF M-32 IN LINE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN UPPER...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST GIVEN GOOD
DYNAMIC FORCING...IN TANDEM WITH ARRIVING DEEPER MOISTURE.

DESPITE ONGOING WARNINGS WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SEVERE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS EAST. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL COME WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MUCAPE PLUME
OVER WISCONSIN GETS TUGGED NORTH TOWARDS EASTERN UPPER AS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PUSHES EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

CHANGES THIS HOUR: PRIMARY CHANGES HAVE BEEN TO NEAR TERM SKY
TRENDS AS MANY SPOTS EAST OF I-75 ENJOYING ONLY A FEW CLOUDS TO
END THE DAY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT WITH MUCAPE PLUME INTERACTING WITH
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE A FEW ROBUST CELLS. HRRR WANTS TO
BRING A SLUG OF ACTIVITY IN HERE OVERNIGHT /DECAYING AS IT HEADS
EAST/...BUT NOT READY TO BITE ON THIS YET GIVEN LACK OF
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THUS...WILL WATCH THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND MAKE POP ADJUSTMENTS AT THAT
POINT. IF SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL CANNOT REACH INTO NORTHERN
LOWER...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS NEEDING UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH SOME
REMAINING GRADIENT AND TOP-DOWN SATURATION INCREASING CLOUDS
ALOFT.

DESPITE UPSTREAM WARNINGS...SEE LITTLE SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR EAST
AS INSTABILITY PLUME WILL QUICKLY WANE AS IT FOLDS INTO VERY DRY
LLEVEL AIRMASS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

BIG OLE` CHANGES A COMING...AN UNFORTUNATE FACT WELL DISPLAYED ON
AFTERNOON NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. PATTERN AMPLIFICATION KICKING
INTO FULL GEAR PER SUCH...WITH LEAD CHARGING SHORTWAVE KICKING OUT
OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH SECONDARY SLUG OF ENERGY JUST UPSTREAM.
THESE WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING
WITH IT WEATHER MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF SEPTEMBER THAN JULY.
ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION ATTEMPTING TO TAKE SHAPE...WITH
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT ARCHING BACK SOUTHWEST IN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE JUST YET...WITH
ONLY LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS BACK ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN LAKES. AS A
RESULT...UPSTREAM SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ON THE
LEAN SIDE...WITH BEST RAIN COVERAGE REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON INCREASING...AND MUCH
NEEDED...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM
FURTHER CONGEALS.

WOULD EXPECT UPWARD TREND IN UPSTREAM RADAR ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION BECOMES TUCKED UNDER NICE SLUG OF
DEEPENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. UPSTREAM FORCING/MOISTURE
SPREADS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT THETA-E
RIDGING ARCHING NORTHEAST...BISECTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY MORNING.
DIFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW/UPTICK IN UPWARD QG SUPPORT AND SIMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT UPSTREAM SHOWERS TO SPREAD
EAST...AT LEAST SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY...JUST A TOUCH TOO FAR REMOVED FROM BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
THE ABOVE...ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING SUB H8 DRY AIR. THUNDER
CHANCES NOT OVERWHELMING...BUT NOT ZERO EITHER...WITH CORRIDOR OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MU CAPE TIED TO ABOVE DYNAMICS. ANY SEVERE
THREAT LIKELY TO REMAIN UPSTREAM WHERE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE
SURFACE BASED.

DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO RATCHET UP HEADING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE DEEPENING AND TAKING ON A NEUTRAL/NEGATIVE TILT OVER
WISCONSIN. BACKSIDE CAA STRENGTHENS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT...WITH A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT TAKING SHAPE JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF PARENT MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AND RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL INITIALLY SLOW THE FRONTS EASTWARD PROGRESS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...LIKELY ONLY REACHING CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING.
SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE...WITH THE
STEADIEST/HEAVIEST RAINS TARGETING EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ARE ALIGNED. SEVERE THREAT HIGHLY PREDICATED BY CHANCES
FOR DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR
SUCH...WITH CROSS SECTION MOISTURE PROGS SUPPORTING A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY...EVEN ACROSS THE RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SUNRISE
SIDE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE EVENT...
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH DYNAMICS AND CORE OF NEAR 50 KNOTS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER TRICKY GIVEN
RAIN AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. INHERITED HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER-MIDDLE 70S AS GOOD A STARTING POINT AS ANY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

OVERVIEW: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN HAS EVOLVED INTO A 5-WAVE LONG WAVE
CONFIGURATION WITH ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN NOAM. RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WHERE THE WARM AIR
RESIDES...LINKING BACK TO TROUGHINESS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. 5-WAVE PATTERN FORECAST TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE UPCOMING SEVEN DAYS BUT WITH SLOW WESTWARD
RETROGRESSION OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND POCKET OF SOME
FAIRLY CHILLY AIR STILL SLATED TO SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR
THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BE INTERESTING. WARMER AIR DOES MAKE A
RETURN NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN FLATTENS ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT JUST
GETS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITION PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AND
DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. SYSTEM HAS SOME STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH A NICE PULSE
OF QG-UPWARD FORCING AND DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND SFC LOW WHICH IS SLATED TO TRACK THROUGH NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN/TIP OF THE MITT/EASTERN UPPER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
COUPLED WITH 30 TO 50 KNOT MID LEVEL WINDS AND RESULTING 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO GET ORGANIZED. BUT...INSTABILITY IS ONCE AGAIN AN
ISSUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS (EVEN UNMODIFIED) ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
IN THE INSTABILITY DEPARTMENT AND EVEN RAW MODEL MLCAPE VALUES ARE
LARGELY UNDER 500 J/KG. NOT GREAT. NO SURPRISE THAT BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DOWN INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE OHIO VALLEY AND SUSPECT BETTER ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS. THAT SAID...IF WE
CAN GET CONVECTION TO FIRE...ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME HAIL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WELCOME FALL. FOLLOWING FROPA...POCKET OF
CHILLY AIR (+3C TO +6C 850 MB AIR) DESCENDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY SETTLING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY. SATURDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A
TRANSITION DAY AS COLD ADVECTION PROCEEDS THROUGH THE DAY AND PARTS
OF THE CWA (SE COUNTIES) MAY SQUEAK TOUCH THE 70S. COULD ACTUALLY
START THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS THROUGH
THE AREA. BUT WITH LAKE SFC TEMPS RUNNING +17C TO +20C...CLOUDY
SKIES ARE CERTAIN TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR HYBRID
LAKE/HEATING INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID...DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WITH A BIT
OF A WARMER CAPPING LAYER ALOFT WHICH MAY PUT THE BRAKES ON
LAKE/LAND BASED CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE WILL KEEP POPS
ON THE LOW SIDE FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS BETTER FOR SHOWERS AS
WARMER LAYER ALOFT IS ERODED ALONG WITH FLAT OUT CLOUDY SKIES AND A
TRUE FALL-LIKE FEEL. HAVE HIGHS ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S.

WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL...WOULD BE MORE IMPRESSIVE IF THE CONVECTIVE
DEPTH WAS DEEPER (PER SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT NOMOGRAM). WILL STILL
HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AS WELL AS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
BUT THE POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT LOOKED A DAY OR TWO
AGO BY VIRTUE OF THE SHALLOWER COLD AIR.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...IMPROVEMENT FOR THE START THE NEXT WORK
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO
THE 70S (STILL BELOW NORMAL). NRN STREAM SYSTEM SLATED TO SLOWLY DIP
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. BUT THIS WILL BRING LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TO ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH TEMPS RUNNING
JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ARRIVING THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE COMING TAF PERIOD WITH
DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS HAVE REACHED PLN AS OF THIS
WRITING...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS. THROUGH DAYBREAK...BEST SHRA POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO BE AT PLN /PERHAPS BRUSHING TVC/ BUT EVEN HERE EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR. FOR THE DAYTIME
FRIDAY....SHOWERS /AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/ WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON PLN/TVC/MBL AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT APN. CIGS WILL LOWER FRIDAY EVENING WITH RAIN TAPERING BACK TO
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT PLN AFTER 00Z.

THUNDER: CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW...WITH A SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
POSSIBLE NEAR PLN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE
AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

LLWS: 1.5KFT WINDS TO 30KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
SHEAR LAYER MIXES OUT.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN TO 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHWEST 10KTS FRIDAY EVENING.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. LONG AND PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL RESULT IN SOME CHOPPY WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT
THESE ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS. STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WEST WINDS TO FOLLOW INTO
THIS WEEKEND...AT TIMES GUSTY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WATERSPOUT
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WOBBLES OVERHEAD.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...BA
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...MB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

721 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.UPDATE...
EARLY UPDATE TONIGHT TO DROP THE RED FLAG WARNING OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES. LOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN MOISTENING UP DUE TO AN
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALFOT. THE THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS
HAS ENDED AND WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP THE RED FLAG WARNING. HAVE
LEFT IN THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE
RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS BEEN WEAK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF A LING FROM HYSHAM TO ALZADA
LATE TONIGHT WITH UPPER JET INCREASE SHEAR TO AROUND 40KTS. WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE. RICHMOND

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...WE WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MT THROUGH 06 UTC. CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DEEPENING OVER THE
REGION AS OF MID AFTERNOON...AND BOTH THE 17 UTC HRRR AND NAM FROM
18 UTC CALL FOR AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS THIS EVENING. THE RISK
OF DRY LIGHTNING REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE RED FLAG EVEN
THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES HAVE STAYED ELEVATED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE GALLATIN NATIONAL FOREST SO FAR TODAY THANKS TO CLOUDS. THE
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MT AFTER 06 UTC.

SUN...THE LOWER AND MID 50S F DEWPOINTS OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN CO
AND SOUTHEASTERN WY SAT AFTERNOON SHOULD GET DRAWN NORTH AND REACH
SOUTHERN MT ON SUN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MT WITH AN ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT...AND THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIKELY POPS IN
PLACES LIKE SHERIDAN AND MILES CITY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION COULD BE
IN THE CARDS ANYWHERE GIVEN AGITATED SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500-HPA AND
UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT. IT
LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE IN PLACE...AND THERE
SHOULD BE POCKETS OF MLCAPE CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOW A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN WINDS FROM ABOUT 700- TO 500-
HPA...BUT STRONGER FLOW ABOVE THAT STILL YIELDS 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR. GIVEN FAVORABLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS UNTIL NOCTURNAL COOLING IS
ABLE TO REDUCE BOUNDARY LAYER BUOYANCY BY LATE EVENING. WE DECIDED
TO MENTION THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. NOTE
THAT STORMS SUN SHOULD BE WETTER THAN SAT WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY. IN FACT...WE MAY
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY EXCEED AN INCH.

MON...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS...BUT WE STILL
NEED CHANCE-STYLE POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA IN RESPECT TO UPSLOPE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS BENEATH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A COOLING TREND WILL BE IN PLACE...AND IN FACT WE HAVE
SOME CONCERN THAT THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING COOLER-THAN-ADVERTISED
HIGHS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRATUS AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION HAMPER DIABATIC HEATING AFTER 18 UTC. OUR FORECAST
IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF 12 UTC NON-MOS GUIDANCE /WHICH IS USUALLY
A GOOD BET TO PICK UP ON A SITUATION LIKE THIS/ THOUGH...SO WE DID
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGE TO GOING HIGHS FOR NOW. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

EXTENDED PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO HAVE ONLY MADE A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. MODELS ARE MAINLY IN AGREEMENT IN
PLACING A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEK RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AS WELL BUT
TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS DIFFICULT. AT THIS TIME...THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND
HIGHEST HEIGHTS WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR STATE. THIS
COMBINED WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ROUTES AND TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. BRIEF IFR TO MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CRAZY
MOUNTAINS...AND BEARTOOTH MOUNTAIN RANGE SOUTH OF KLVM. LOOK FOR
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SUNDAY. BT

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/081 059/080 058/085 059/086 061/084 060/084 061/084
33/T 53/T 32/T 33/T 32/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 053/084 051/079 049/085 051/085 052/081 051/080 051/080
44/T 53/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 060/085 059/082 058/086 059/086 060/085 060/085 060/085
35/T 64/T 32/T 33/T 32/T 33/T 32/T
MLS 062/085 060/082 060/085 060/086 062/085 062/082 063/085
25/T 74/T 33/T 33/T 34/T 33/T 33/T
4BQ 057/084 056/082 058/083 058/085 058/085 059/083 060/084
24/T 54/T 33/T 33/T 34/T 33/T 33/T
BHK 052/079 056/078 056/079 056/081 058/080 057/080 058/080
23/T 54/T 33/T 32/T 34/T 33/T 34/T
SHR 056/084 055/081 055/086 055/085 056/083 055/083 056/083
35/T 64/T 32/T 33/T 32/T 33/T 33/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

250 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL YIELD
A RISK OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BEFORE LOWERING HEIGHTS YIELD MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY OF A WET VARIETY OVER THE WHOLE AREA ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...WE LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN PLAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY SMALLER-
SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT IN CASE
THEY ARE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT FOR NOW WE LEFT
A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE THERE.

SAT...IT APPEARS THAT A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES OBSERVED IN THE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM NORTHERN CA INTO OR
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS EVOLUTION AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
START TO FALL BY LATE DAY...AND THAT SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED STORM
ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT STILL SHOW A WEAK
CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT STEEP LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH A
PLUME OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH-
BASED THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE WOULD ORDINARILY BE IN QUESTION WITH
MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG...AND IN SOME WAYS IT STILL IS...BUT THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AND THAT IS
HELPING BUILD OUR CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE 09 UTC SREF
CALIBRATED DRY THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES HAVE RISEN SINCE THE RUN
FROM THAT TIME YESTERDAY /WHEN THEY WERE ALREADY NOTABLE/...AND SO
THERE IS STATISTICAL SUPPORT FOR THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING WHICH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IMPLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND
0.75 INCHES...AND BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT EVEN THOUGH HIGHS MAY ONLY BE AROUND 90 F. FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS CONFIRM THAT FUELS OVER THE GALLATIN NATIONAL FOREST ARE
RECEPTIVE OF LIGHTNING AND SO NEW FIRE STARTS ARE A CONCERN. BASED
ON THAT RISK...WE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS THAT AREA AND
THE SWEET GRASS AND WHEATLAND COUNTY FIRE WEATHER ZONE FROM 18 UTC
THROUGH 06 UTC. PER DISCUSSION WITH FIRE MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...WE
DID NOT CARRY THE HEADLINE EAST OF THAT AREA SINCE FUELS AREN/T AS
DRY. NOTE THAT THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH...AND A SEVERE-LEVEL WIND
EVENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT BY SAT NIGHT.

SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD YIELD MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AN INCH OR BETTER. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING A MODEST FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT...WHICH COULD FOCUS
ENOUGH STORMS TO GARNER LIKELY POPS WITH LATER FORECASTS. SUN WILL
ALSO BE COOLER BEHIND THAT FRONT. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN
ADVERTISING A CHANGE TO UNSETTLED WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL ENABLE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA. THESE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PACIFIC
MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. HAVE CONTINUED SCATTERED POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. LOWER
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. RICHMOND

.AVIATION...

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS WELL AS ADJACENT SLOPES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AND
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND
GUSTS TO 40KTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
FLIGHT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. RICHMOND

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/090 063/082 061/080 058/085 059/086 061/084 060/084
12/T 32/T 43/T 32/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 051/093 054/083 052/079 049/085 051/085 052/081 051/080
23/T 32/T 33/T 23/T 33/T 32/T 33/T
HDN 057/091 060/085 059/082 058/086 059/086 060/085 060/085
12/T 33/T 44/T 32/T 23/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 056/086 062/086 062/082 060/085 060/086 062/085 062/085
11/U 24/T 54/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
4BQ 051/086 058/086 057/082 058/083 058/085 058/085 059/084
11/U 24/T 54/T 33/T 33/T 34/T 33/T
BHK 048/077 053/080 057/078 056/079 056/080 058/080 057/080
11/N 25/T 54/T 33/T 22/T 33/T 33/T
SHR 054/089 056/083 055/081 055/086 055/085 056/083 055/083
23/T 34/T 44/T 32/T 22/T 33/T 33/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28-40-41-63>68.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

635 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH SMALL PRECIP CHANCES.

CURRENT UPPER AIR...WIND PROFILER NETWORK AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT IS EXPECTED
TO WOBBLE IN PLACE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE REGION
WAS OVER EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVING INTO ALBERTA...WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION COULD BE SEEN A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH VARIOUS MINOR
SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS RIDGE...INCLUDING ONE THAT
TRIGGERED ISOLATED TSTMS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WAS NOTED OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND THEN EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. CLOSER
TO HOME...WINDS ARE LIGHT DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
DEWPOINTS WERE VERY COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TO THE LOWER/MID 50S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL HINGE ON THE
DEGREE OF WARM ADVECTION THAT SETS UP. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 02Z IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THE 310K DEGREE ISENTROPIC PLAN VIEW
PLOT SHOWS THIS NICELY WITH A 30-40 KT JET RIDING OVER THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND INTO OUR AREA. MIXING RATIOS HERE ARE AROUND 9-10 G/KG
WITH BEST LIFT IN THE SOUTHWEST. REAL QUESTION THEN BECOME HOW FAR
INTO THE CWA TO EXTEND THE RAIN CHANCES AS WARM ADVECTION NIL OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO THE NAM. ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES POP UP OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS AS MU CAPE ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST EVEN THOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RESPECTABLE. DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN
THE COOLER AIR MASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH IS 65 IN KGRI.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY AS
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLIDING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE
DESERT SW INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO
BE IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...ACTUALLY SOUTH OF THERE...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...MU CAPE VALUES REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS...SO SEVERE CHANCES ARE
MINIMAL. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
COOLER AIR MASS. KGRI AVERAGE HIGH IS 87 AND FORECAST HIGH WILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW THAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT RAIN
ALL THE TIME OR IN ALL LOCATIONS.

THE STRONGEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION SPREADS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH DURING
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH. THE UPPER WAVE WILL START TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT BRINGS THE FIRST BREAK...BUT ONLY FOR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BUT CAN
ONLY BRING A BREAK TO PART OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED PRECIPITATION
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY IN THE WEST AND NORTH.
THE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SMALL AND MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
TIMING OF THE WAVES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THESE TOO ARE FAIRLY SMALL CHANCES AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY NOT BE PRECIPITATION AT SOME LOCATIONS.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MONDAY...BUT RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

KGRI WILL SEE INCREASING VFR CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH CLOUDS LINGERING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SW OF THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THRU THE NIGHT BUT WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ISSUED BY KOAX

NWS HASTINGS NE

1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD. HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO
INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP SAT MORNING FOR POSSIBLE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK MID LYR DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
ANY PCPN ACTIVITY THAT DOES FOR WILL BE HIGH BASED...THUS DID NOT
TAKE CIGS BELOW MVFR.

DEE

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES...ELEVATED DEW POINTS AND A
STRONG INVERSION. EXPECT THIS FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT RECEIVED SOME MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND WHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. LATEST
HRRR/SREF PROBS INDICATE THIS FOG SHOULD BE QUICK TO CLEAR JUST
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AREAS
BY 15Z AT THE LATEST. IN FACT...LATEST HRRR IS NOW QUESTIONING ANY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN GENERAL.....BUT WITH SEVERAL SITES
FLIRTING WITH 1-5 SM OF VISIBILITY THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...THINK THAT FURTHER DETERIORATION IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY STRUGGLING TO
REACH 80 NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE COOL TEMPERATES...CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD MIXING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN
A MOSTLY SUNNY...YET BREEZY AFTERNOON.

LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO WORK ITS WAY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA AFTER 06Z. WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
HANDLING THIS DISTURBANCE...INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
POST 06Z AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE LOCAL AREA.

WHILE THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT CONTINUE TO
THINK LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS THANKS TO THE EARLY CLEARING AND
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...WHICH WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING
TEMPERATURE READINGS WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH
WHEN GRAND ISLAND...HASTINGS AND KEARNEY ALL REPORTED LOWS OF 52 ON
THE 1ST OF JULY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE SAT-SUN ANCHORED BY AN ERN USA TROF AND
A SLOW-MOVING LOW /-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR LATE JULY/ OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE CLOSED LOW /CURRENTLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA/ WILL MOVE INLAND SAT-SUN...SPREADING HGT FALLS
OVER THE WRN USA AND TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
THIS WILL CHANGE THE FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TO ZONAL MON-TUE BUT
WITH RISING HGTS AS THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES THE W COAST AND ALLOWS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO EXPAND N OVER THE SRN USA. THIS WILL THEN
MODIFY THE FLOW TO WNW WED-THU.

THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL /UPR 80S TO
LOW 90S/.

SFC: THE COOL FRONT MOVING THRU TODAY WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE
UPR FLOW /NW-SE/ FROM THE PANHANDLE THRU CNTRL KS. THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THRU MON AND THEN DISSIPATE. COOL HIGH PRES WILL
BE OVER THE PLAINS SAT AND DEPART INTO THE ERN USA SUN. THIS HIGH
WILL FILTER COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER COOL FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUE. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA /THU OR FRI?/ BUT IT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY.

WITH LWR HGTS IN PLACE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WE SEEM TO HAVE
ENTERED A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
THAN THE 7 WEEK PERIOD FROM JUN 1ST THRU JUL 20TH. THIS MORE
FAVORABLE PATTERN APPEARS TO STICK AROUND THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS. WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD SVR TSTMS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SVR WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD TO WATCH WILL BE SUN NGT.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SAT: FGEN-DRIVEN BANDS OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE ON-GOING AT DAWN AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST THRU THE MRNG BEFORE ENDING/EXITING TO THE SE.
THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS IF MODELS ARE OFF IN THEIR
LOCATION OF THE CLOUDS/RAIN.

THE ONLY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY /SEEN IN MUCAPE/ DOESNT APPEAR TO
BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. SO IT HAS BEEN
WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE FCST TO BE MOIST
ADIABATIC.

QPF: MODELS ARE WIDELY DISPERSIVE WITH THEIR AMTS. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT. MOST MODELS SUGGESTS .1 TO .33
FOR THIS EVENT...BUT THE 00Z NAM AND EC SUGGEST A SWATH OF .5" IS
POSSIBLE WITH MAX AMTS OF 0.75" OR MORE. THIS ISNT IN THE BAG YET
AND IT WONT BE FOR EVERYWHERE. THE FACT THE THE EC IS ON BOARD LENDS
CREDENCE TO THE NAM. THIS IS JUST ONE RUN FOR EACH. SO LETS SEE HOW
LATER CYCLES EVOLVE.

H8 TEMPS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RECORD COOLEST
HIGH TEMPS ON RECORD /FOR JUL 27TH/ TO BE THREATENED. THE 64 IN 1981
AT GRI SHOULD BE SAFE...BUT THE CURRENT FCST OF 71 WOULD COME IN AS
THE 2ND COOLEST JUL 27TH ON RECORD.

IF THE "WORST" CASE SCENARIO HAPPENS /CLOUDY ALL DAY WITH STEADY
RAIN THRU EARLY AFTN/ THEN WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY 3-5F IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON CLOUD COVER. ALL MODEL 2M TEMP
GUIDANCE EXCEPT GFS SUGGESTS SOME WONT GET OUT OF THE 60S. IT ALL
DEPENDS WHERE THE RAIN SETS UP. AREAS THAT CAN MAINTAIN THE LEAST
AMT OF CLOUDS COULD APPROACH 80F.

SAT NGT: A FEW TSTMS SHOULD ERUPT ALONG AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...FROM CNTRL KS NW INTO THE PANHANDLE. A 35 KT LLJ
IS FCST TO DEVELOP WITH ITS NOSE OVER NWRN KS. WITH THE ASSOCIATED
ASCENT OVER THE FRONT...THE REMNANTS OF THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT
INTO AREAS S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. AT BEST MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG
IS FCST AND THIS IS JUST OVER N-CNTRL KS. SO THUNDER HAS BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE FCST OVER S-CNTRL NEB.

SUN: PROBABLY M/CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY LGT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. WE DO
HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME STRATIFORM RAIN IN THE FCST...BUT VERTICAL
MOTION IS WEAK. SO CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR LOW QPF. MODELS ARE
MAINTAINING A LARGE BATCH OF HIGH MEAN RH IN THE PERSISTENT PRESENCE
OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80 KT ULJ. THERE IS ALSO A HINT OF A
SUBTLE VORT MAX /CURRENTLY OVER AZ AND SRN CA/ WHICH ROUNDS THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ARRIVES HERE SUN-SUN NGT.

STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TRANSPORTING RICH MSTR BACK
INTO THE REGION...WITH PW CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 1.5 TO 1.75" AND H8
DWPTS TO +15C.

SUN WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.

SUN NGT: HIGH RH REMAINS WITH SUBTLE SHRTWV TROF MOVING THRU. MODELS
ARE EMPHATIC IN MCS DEVELOPMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACTLY
WHERE. MOST MODELS SUGGESTS KS. A MUCH BROADER/STRONGER LLJ IS FCST
/CLOSE TO 50 KTS/. PW IS FCST TO INCREASE TO 1.90" OVER CNTRL-ERN KS.
THIS COULD END UP AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DRENCHING RAINS FOR PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

MON: STILL MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A LARGE TSTM COMPLEX WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION AND EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS.

TUE: LOOKING DRY AND NICE FOR NOW. TEMPS TAKE A BIG JUMP BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

WED: CHANCE OF AFTN-EVNG TSTMS? COVERAGE IS PROBABLY LOW. TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

THU: MAYBE BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTN-EVNG TSTMS? TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...DEE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

547 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL /UPR 80S TO
LOW 90S/.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS. WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD SVR TSTMS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SVR WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD TO WATCH WILL BE SUN NGT.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TRANSPORTING RICH MSTR BACK
INTO THE REGION...WITH PW CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 1.5 TO 1.75" AND H8
DWPTS TO +15C.

SUN WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.

MON: STILL MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A LARGE TSTM COMPLEX WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION AND EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS.

TUE: LOOKING DRY AND NICE FOR NOW. TEMPS TAKE A BIG JUMP BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

WED: CHANCE OF AFTN-EVNG TSTMS? COVERAGE IS PROBABLY LOW. TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

THU: MAYBE BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTN-EVNG TSTMS? TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FOG IS VERY
THIN...AND EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS THE SUN ANGLE
INCREASES BY 13Z OR SO. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
FOCUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS FRONT. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY RELAX AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING...WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE SPREADING A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHRA OR VCTS AT
THE TERMINAL AFT 27/08Z.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...SAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

404 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL /UPR 80S TO
LOW 90S/.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS. WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY SIGNALS
FOR WIDESPREAD SVR TSTMS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SVR WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD TO WATCH WILL BE SUN NGT.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TRANSPORTING RICH MSTR BACK
INTO THE REGION...WITH PW CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 1.5 TO 1.75" AND H8
DWPTS TO +15C.

SUN WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.

MON: STILL MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A LARGE TSTM COMPLEX WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION AND EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS.

TUE: LOOKING DRY AND NICE FOR NOW. TEMPS TAKE A BIG JUMP BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

WED: CHANCE OF AFTN-EVNG TSTMS? COVERAGE IS PROBABLY LOW. TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

THU: MAYBE BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTN-EVNG TSTMS? TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH LIGHT
TO NO WINDS...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS IN AREAS OF
FOG THAT AREA ABLE TO DEVELOP. DID NOT HIT THE FOG POTENTIAL
PARTICULARLY HARD AS RAINFALL TOTALS WERE LIGHT NEAR THE TERMINAL
TODAY...BUT IF FOG IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...COULD SEE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
BEFORE DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...AS WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH
AROUND 13Z...EXPECT ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP TO RAPIDLY
SCOUR OUT...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE AFT 15Z.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...SAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1240 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SATELLITE
DATA. IN ADDITION...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT RECEIVED SOME DECENT RAINFALL TODAY TO
COINCIDE WITH THINKING THAT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST SREF
INDICATES THIS POTENTIAL AS DOES 02Z HRRR WHICH TAKES VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 0.25 MILES IN SPOTS. OPTED NOT TO BE THIS
PESSIMISTIC...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO SEE IF THE
AREA AND DENSITY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED OR NOT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

WATER VAPOR LOOPS REVEAL A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/PERTURBATION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW CROSSING NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA AS A COMPLEX
SMALL SCALE SURFACE SCENARIO INCLUDING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
EXISTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING BETWEEN TWO SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES.
ONE IS A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST...LOCATED IN NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...AND THE OTHER IS A STATIONARY FRONT...ONCE A WARM
FRONT...LOCATED IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE FOCI
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SEVERE CHANCES ARE DICEY. SINCE MOST OF OUR CWA HAS BEEN IN
THE CLOUDS TODAY...THIS HAS KEPT INSTABILITY MORE AT
BAY...DECREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER. SOME CONVECTION
HAS ALREADY BEGUN...WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. SHEAR IS RATHER
MARGINAL FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND ACTUALLY DECREASES INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THERE IS A FAIRLY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TO DEVELOP AS THE WAVE TO THE NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE
AREA...AND WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONTS IN THE VICINITY. THE MAIN
SUPPORT FOR SEVERE THREAT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
INSTABILITY...WILL DIMINISH BY 10 PM...AFTER SUNSET AND BEHIND THE
WAVE. IN SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS DICEY IF NOT
MEAGER...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION....ESPECIALLY WITH THE HELP OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

AS FOR HEAVY RAIN CHANCES...THE BEST SHOT WOULD BE JUST
NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. IT ONCE LOOKED
LIKE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD GET GOING AND PRODUCE SOME
TRAINING CELLS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH A LOT OF
HELP FROM THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE JET AND FRONT...AND FLOODING POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH ONLY PERHAPS A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY MIDNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST BISECT THE
CWA...WITH AN END OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BY
12Z...THIS FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE CWA...AND TAKING THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD COMPLETELY DIMINISH
BY THIS TIME. DISTINCTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE FROM PREVENTING ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
POPPING UP...WITH ONLY SOME CUMULUS EXPECTED DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING SHOWS MODELS NOT IN
TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...WITH UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SITTING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT
SW/ROCKIES. WHILE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS REMAINS
DRY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE CWA LATER THAT
NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT GREAT
LAKES LOW STARTS SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ALSO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SLIDING INTO THE AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE THERE. DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...FEW MORE VARIATIONS SHOW UP BETWEEN
MODELS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHILE THE WAVE IS MOVING
OUT...AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LINGERS IN THE AREA...SO KEPT POPS
GOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NOT OUT OF QUESTION SOME POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY BE NEEDED...DEPENDING ON HOW UPCOMING MODELS
TREND.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THAT WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO BE BEATEN
DOWN...AS ANOTHER LOW/ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVE IN FROM WRN
CANADA AND THE PAC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE
FLOW...GIVING THE CWA BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FROM PASSING
DISTURBANCES. THE PERIODIC CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS CHANCES ARE AIDED BY INCREASED LIFT VIA A STRONGER
SRLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE REGION...THUS THE CONTINUED HIGHER POPS.

LOOKING AT THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK...THAT SAME ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE...AND SO DOES THE PERIODIC PASSAGES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE ARE POPS IN JUST ABOUT EVERY
PERIOD...BUT CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING AT A MULTI-DAY RAIN OUT...JUST
DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT IN TIME TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION
DETAILS DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.

THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS BETTER
SUPPORT FROM MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG/JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA...AND OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER
SIDE. CANT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT
LOOKING AT ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS SAT THROUGH
THURSDAY ARE BELOW AVG TO NEAR AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SAT
THROUGH MON HIGHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NEAST TO
LOWER/MID 80S IN THE SW...WHILE TUES THROUGH THURS ARE IN THE
80S...WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. FORECAST
OVERNIGHT LOWS START OUT THE PERIOD IN THE 50S...BUT EVENTUALLY
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SAR
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...SAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1122 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT GRI THROUGH 06Z AND
SHOULD SUCH ACTIVITY BE REALIZED AT GRI...THEN VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION COULD ALSO BE REALIZED IN RA. FOR NOW HOWEVER...WILL
GO WITH VCTS THROUGH 06Z...WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...AND
UPDATE THE TAF AS NECESSARY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH AT AROUND 12KTS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY 06Z...THEN BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTH AT
AROUND 15KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SAR
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...BRYANT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1124 PM MDT THU JUL 25 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPAWN
ADDITIONAL CELLS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TYPICAL HAZARDS WILL ACCOMPANY STORM
DOWNPOURS...INCLUDING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL GENERALLY DRIFT SOUTH
SOUTHEAST...IMPACTING THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS
BEFORE SUNRISE. STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER A
LARGE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT THU JUL 25 2013...
ENHANCED NW TO SE STEERING FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN MUCH FASTER
STORM MOTIONS BUT ALSO GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION/STRUCTURE. THE
SW HALF CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL COL REGION
BETWEEN TWO HIGH CENTERS...PRIMARY ONE OVER NW AZ AND A SECONDARY
CENTROID WEST OF THE TX BIG BEND REGION. AT LEAST TWO WELL-
DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES IN THE VICINITY OF OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER REGION BUT HOW THEY WILL MANIFEST THEMSELVES WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY PEAK IS UNCLEAR.
REGION OF VERY FAVORABLE 300-400 MB DEFORMATION IS DEFINITELY
CONTRIBUTING TO AN ACTIVE CROP OVER THE WEST AND A BIT FARTHER
NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGESTED.

WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE NC/NE AND
EVENTUALLY EC ZONES AS WELL AS THE WCC/SW. SHORT- WAVE TROUGH
BRUSHING NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THERE
WITH A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET. SEWD-MOVING AND
GRADUALLY EXPANDING/DEEPENING COLD POOLS WILL LIKELY TOUCH OFF NEW
CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...AND THE LATEST HRRR STRONG SUGGESTS A
LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TAKING SHAPE ACROSS PARTS OF EC PLAINS.
EARLIER EXPANSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOT LOOKING GREAT THUS
FAR...BUT WILL LET RIDE FOR EVENING CREW TO REEVALUATE.

IN WAKE OF THE SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING... MODELS ADVERTISE A NEW BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WEST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE/EC PLAINS THOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
SHOULD PROVE BENEFICIAL FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES.
OTHERWISE...UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS OUR
DIRECTION. THOUGH NOT AS ROBUST AS TODAY...A NW TO SE STEERING
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH THE
COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE/VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FAVORING
THE WC/SW ZONES FOR PERSISTENT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MARKED TREND TOWARD A DRIER
CONDITIONS BENEATH ENHANCED WEST TO EAST FLOW REGIME. IN OTHER
WORDS THE WESTERLIES LOOK TO RETURN AND STRONGLY SO ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE DURING THE EXTENDED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIRLY DYNAMIC DAY ON TAP AS A SHORTWAVE CAUGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW
MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS HAVE FIRED UP
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS.
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CAUGHT WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE OR
LIFTING ZONE IS FOUND ELSEWHERE. STORMS ARE GRADUALLY FIRING UP
WITHIN THIS ZONE. EXPECTING ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY LASTING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME DRYING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD ON
FRIDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE DISTURBANCE OR SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FRIDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE MAIN FOCUS AREA WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109 EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS STILL LOOKS TO BE A LIMITER FOR
WETTING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY VERSUS TODAY.

MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON PLACING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER FAR
SOUTHERN NM AND NORTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE
STORMS WOULD TURN MORE WEST TO EAST AS A RESULT. MOISTURE IS STILL
PLENTIFUL ACROSS ARIZONA SO THIS COULD ACTUALLY RESULT IN AN UPTICK
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
INCLUDES THE ENTIRE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO STEERING FLOW
CONSIDERATIONS. WETTING RAIN AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WITH AN UPTICK
IN HUMIDITY IS A PRETTY GOOD BET.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ON
SUNDAY. BY THIS POINT...A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE SOME. MODELS VARY
SOMEWHAT ON THE STRENGTH BUT THEY STILL POINT TOWARDS A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW. BY THIS POINT...ARIZONA IS EXPECTED TO SEE A DOWNTURN
IN MOISTURE VALUES THUS DRIER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY ENTRAIN ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AS A RESULT. THIS WILL NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BUT WOULD REDUCE THE COVERAGE AND WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT
SOME. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS PAINT THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR WETTING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE AND SPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS. DID BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS WHICH
LOOK MORE LIKE MID JUNE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SCENARIO.

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE STATE
FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON PAINTING VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT TURNS OUT. EITHER
WAY...EXPECTING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF MOISTURE SEEPAGE AS THE
UPPER HIGH TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD AND PERHAPS EASTWARD. THE SEEPAGE WOULD
MOST LIKELY COME ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS WELL AS VIA A WIND
SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. EITHER WAY...WETTING THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BE MORE ON THE MINIMAL KIND THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. PERHAPS INCREASING A BIT MORE THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER TEXAS. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
TREND. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT A 3 TO 4 DAY DOWNTREND IN
WETTING THUNDERSTORMS TYPICALLY OCCURS DURING THE MONSOON MOST YEARS
SO NOTHING TOO OUT OF THE ORDINARY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
SIGNIFICANT TRENDS...WHETHER THEY BE MOISTENING OR DRYING AS WE GO
FORWARD.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

412 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT FRIDAY...FCST FOCUS WL BE POPS ACRS EASTERN VT...FOLLOWED
BY CLRING AND POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. POTENT S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION CONTS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE BACKSIDE MOISTURE LEAF IS WEAKENING OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. BOTH RAP13 AND 3KM HRRR MODELS CONT TO SHOW
WEAK COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ACRS EASTERN VT THRU 03Z THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE WL MENTION CHC POPS...SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FCST. OTHERWISE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND POTENT S/W ENERGY
SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASE CLOUDS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
SATL PIC TRENDS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. THIS WINDOW OF CLRING IS
SMALL...BEFORE CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING OUR FA.
TEMPS WL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS WITH COOLEST TEMPS ACRS THE
DACKS AND WARMEST CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY IN THE 40S TO M50S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN INTO EARLY MONDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF PRECIP...WITH NAM MUCH SLOWER THAN
GFS/ECMWF. WL USE A BLEND BTWN THE 12Z GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS
FCSTERS...WHICH SUPPORTS CHCS POPS SAT NIGHT WITH LIKELY/CAT
POPS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH A FULL LATITUDE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE MS VALLEY.
THIS DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL EJECT SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY
ALONG WITH RIBBONS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACRS OUR CWA FROM SAT NIGHT
THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA
AROUND 06Z SUNDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE CPV BY 15Z
SUNDAY...NEXT S/W ENERGY...DEEPER 850 TO 500MB RH AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ARRIVES BTWN 21Z-03Z SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH MORE
SHOWERS. FEEL A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION FOR 2ND ROUND OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN FRNT IS PARALLELING ULVL FLW
AND TROF/CLOSED SYSTEM IS STILL LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY AFTN.

IN ADDITION...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AND TRAINING OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION WL BE
POSSIBLE...GIVEN POSITION OF 85H JET OF 30 KNOTS ALONG BOUNDARY AND
FA UNDER RRQ OF 100 KNT AT 25H. FURTHERMORE...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLW WL
HELP TO ADVECT PW VALUES BTWN 1.75 AND 2.0" ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY. SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOW A TALL SKINNY CAPE WITH VALUES BTWN 300 AND 600 J/KG
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 12KFT...ALONG WITH VECTOR ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING TRAINING OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.
THINKING RAINFALL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.50" TO 2.0" BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH GREATEST ACTIVE BTWN 21Z AND 03Z SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.
WL KEEP SAT DRY ATTM...BUT GIVEN SMALL WINDOW OF CLR SKIES ON LATEST
SATL PICS...EXPECT MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS TO ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACRS OUR REGION.

LOCAL 2KM AND 4KM COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS FOR SUNDAY AFTN
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HIGH SHEARED...BUT LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.

WL MENTION CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS WESTERN
CWA...WITH SCHC EASTERN VT. SUNDAY WL BE TRICKY WITH RAIN LIKELY IN
THE MORNING FOR THE DACKS/SLV...WITH CHC POPS VT...THEN MORE RAIN
LIKELY TO CAT AFT 21Z. I WOULD EXPECT SOME DRY PERIODS ON SUNDAY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS M70S MTNS (DACKS)TO L/M80S WARMER
VALLEYS ON SAT. CLOUDS/PRECIP WL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO
L80S ON SUNDAY...EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 85H TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO AND THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT NOT
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AT
THE START OF MONDAY WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
VERMONT EARLY...THEN SOME DESTABILIZATION LATER IN THE DAY MAY
ENHANCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. STEEPER LAPSE RATES
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AND STILL LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS THAT WILL BE
THE DRIEST PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE FLOW ALOFT BACKS ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS GOING FORECAST OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE AT KSLK WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AND WHERE BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KMPV DURING THIS SMALL WINDOW OF TIME
AS WELL. OTHERWISE...ANY CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 12000
FEET. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...BUT AT
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR
RAIN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

513 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL PASS NEAR CAPE COD THIS MORNING AND THEN HEAD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDS TO VERMONT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE...DRY WEATHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED STORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TODAY...AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 508 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FROM SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING INTO GULF OF MAINE BY
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SPREAD NORTHWEST
ACROSS VERMONT...WITH SOME CIRRUS EVEN MAKING IT BACK INTO PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. BULK OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF FORECAST
AREA...BUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE EAST OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY TODAY. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM 2 TO 3C
FROM THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 508 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TONIGHT...LEAVING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOWER READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS DUE TO
A DEEP CLOSED AND NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.
GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES
SUNDAY...SUPPORTING POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME INSTABILITY...ALBEIT
RATHER WEAK...INDICATED FOR SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY
SUNDAY EVENING MAY REACH AN INCH IN SOME AREAS. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 508 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MEDIUM/LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS
REMAIN LOCKED INTO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES...WITH JUST A FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FROM
YESTERDAYS RUNS.

WIDELY ADVERTISED DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BTV CWA STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD
TAPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN
CONTINUE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER FLOW
TURNS NORTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

LOOKING AT FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL FLOW
TO SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH LOOKS TO BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`RE EXPECTING THIS
COMING SUNDAY (7/28)...SO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THAT SYSTEM AS WE
COULD BE IN FOR A REPEAT PERFORMANCE LATER NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OVER VERMONT AND
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK...WITH CLEAR SKIES WESTWARD.
TRENDS SHOW THIS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AS WELL...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO SOME
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KSLK. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME
MODEST WINDS STILL REMAIN THOUGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH MAY
INHIBIT FOG MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...AND RELIABLE LAV GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON FOG PROBS AS WELL. WON`T RULE IT
OUT...BUT HAVE JUST TEMPO`D SOME IFR INSTEAD OF GOING WITH
PREVAILING. ANY FOG BURNS OFF AFTER 11-12Z AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS VT GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BEYOND
00Z...EXPECT JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE SOME FOG
AROUND...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR
RAIN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

147 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD CAPE COD. THIS WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN VERMONT THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1228 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST LOOKING OKAY...SO ONLY
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST DATA AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUD
LINE SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT WHERE IT IS...WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAINLY CLOUDY IN VERMONT. ANY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERNMOST VERMONT. TEMPS NOT FALLING
MUCH ACROSS VERMONT DUE CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
PER LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT UP
STEADILY THIS EVENING ACROSS VT...AND NOW ARE RUNNING WELL INTO
THE 50S UNDER INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST. AS A
RESULT...HAD TO MAKE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY. LEFT LOWS GENERALLY ALONE
ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BE THE RULE. FRONTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ALONG THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND
CONTINUES TO TRACK NNE THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
MAINTAIN THEIR PRIOR IDEA OF KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
THREAT OF STEADIER PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY GRAZING OUR ERN VT COUNTIES
LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED QUITE NICELY...SO NO CHANGES TO POPS IN THAT REGARD.
PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET ACROSS NRN NY WHERE LATEST PROGS
SUGGEST FAVORED AREAS WILL DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS AFTER 06Z.
HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT THURSDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLW ALOFT WL QUICKLY LIFT S/W
ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATE A SHARP WEST TO EAST GRADIENT IN
RH FIELDS...WITH MAYBE A BRIEF SHOWER ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT. WL
CONT TO MENTION SCHC POPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER 2 TO 3C
FROM THURS...TO SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO L/M
80S VALLEYS. WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ACRS THE SLV...WHERE SKIES WL BE
SUNNY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP CLOSED AND NEARLY VERTICAL
STACKED SYSTEM ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
NE CONUS. THE MID/UPPER LVL FLW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL BECM
SOUTHERLY WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN/EVENING.
IN ADDITION...LATEST 12Z GFS SHOWS SEVERAL RIBBONS OF ENHANCED 850
TO 500MB RH ADVECTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS OUR FA...IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLW ALOFT. HOWEVER...BEST LLVL SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH FRNT AND LOW PRES...ALONG WITH STRONGEST JET WINDS WL STAY WEST
OF OUR CWA THRU 12Z SUNDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ON SAT ACRS
OUR CWA...AS NAM/GFS SHOW BEST PARAMETERS SOUTH OF OUR
FA...ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER BL DWPTS. WL MENTION CHC POPS AFT 18Z
SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID LVL WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACRS OUR FA. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES/VIRGA OCCURRING
INITIALLY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 13 AND 15C...SUPPORT HIGHS BACK
INTO THE U70S MTNS TO M80S WARMER VALLEYS. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY
LVLS WL CONT TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BY SAT NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SUNDAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED.
AFTER SUNDAY...THE AREA GETS IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ADD A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING
AROUND...LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OVER VERMONT AND
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK...WITH CLEAR SKIES WESTWARD.
TRENDS SHOW THIS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AS WELL...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO SOME
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KSLK. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME
MODEST WINDS STILL REMAIN THOUGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH MAY
INHIBIT FOG MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...AND RELIABLE LAV GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON FOG PROBS AS WELL. WON`T RULE IT
OUT...BUT HAVE JUST TEMPO`D SOME IFR INSTEAD OF GOING WITH
PREVAILING. ANY FOG BURNS OFF AFTER 11-12Z AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS VT GENERALLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BEYOND
00Z...EXPECT JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE SOME FOG
AROUND...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR
RAIN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

902 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THEN SETTLE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...

CONVERGENT FEATURES ABOUND THIS AFTERNOON. A MOISTURE PLUME AND
SHORT WAVE LIFTING AROUND THE UPPER TROF INITIATED WIDESPREAD RAIN
IN UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE FOOTHILLS
DURING THE MORNING. THESE FEATURES MOVED EAST AND INTO STRONGER
INSTABILITY IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE INSOLATION HAD ALLOWED A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY TO SET UP. THE RESULTING AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS WE PROGRESS INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RELATIVELY ORGANIZED LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

RAP AND THE HRRR IN CONJUNCTION DEPICT A VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST
OUT OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...PROVIDING
FURTHER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA...
FAY-TRIANGLE AREA...FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION WILL BE WANING TO CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY...
MEANWHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH A
PERSISTENT TROF STRETCHING DOWN THE EAST COAST. IN THE WEST...
MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL INITIALLY HINDER DESTABILIZATION...BUT
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL
DRIER AIR...PROMOTING A BETTER CHANCE OF DOWNBURST WINDS WITH DCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 1000J. MEANWHILE...ENTRANCE OF DEPARTING UPPER JET
WILL ALIGN WITH THE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN >1.75 INCHES WITH MUCAPE
>1200J. AS SUCH...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY...SHADED
HIGHER TOWARDS THE EAST. POPS WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S WEST...WHICH COULD BE
A SHADE WARM IF LOW CLOUDINESS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...TO
UPPER 80S IN THE EAST. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 65 TO 70
RANGE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE IT ENDS UP IS STILL IN
QUESTION. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL/WASH OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN NC. THEREFORE...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ENOUGH
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP.
THEN MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY AND THEREFORE AM EXPECTING A MOSTLY
DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTH AND EAST (DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AND/OR
MOISTURE) AND THEN BY LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN HERE.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH/CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKING TO
OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN...IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF FRONTS THAT HAVE/WILL IMPACT THE AREA...IT MAY STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN A SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY...AT LEAST ACROSS THE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THEN YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
(MAYBE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT).

TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING/EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP
THAT OCCURS...BUT SHOULD LARGELY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM-FUELING INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...SO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
TRIAD TERMINALS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
LOWER OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFR-IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE CENTRAL NC TERMINALS BY
DAYBREAK. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL THEN LIFT AND SCATTER TO
VFR BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE INTO
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD:
FOG/STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE FRONT MAY STALL
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
FOG/STRATUS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AT KFAY.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS/MLM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

253 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN
CHALLENGE BEING RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FOR BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT/BKN CUMULUS FIELD
COVERING ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA. CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MAINTAIN THE
CUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE EVENING...AND AFTER SUNSET WILL SEE A
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN CLOUDS WITH CLEAR SKIES COMMENCING LATER
TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AROUND STANLEY BY
00Z SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z SATURDAY.
THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE RAP AND HRRR TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ALSO IN THE NORTHEAST/TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT DRY WITH
REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW A VOID
IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT UP TO THIS POINT. A 1030MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO THE
LOWER JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPSTREAM LOW
TEMPERATURES IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY MORNING RANGED FROM
38F TO 42F...WHICH IS IN THE BALLPARK OF WHAT THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE
IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE OLD RULE OF THUMB USING THE
MINIMUM DEWPOINT DURING THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR OBTAINING AN
APPROXIMATE LOW TEMPERATURE ALSO SUPPORTS LOWS BETWEEN 39F AND
44F. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR RECORD LOWS IN BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN...WITH MINOT...WILLISTON...AND DICKINSON COMING JUST SHY
OF ESTABLISHING NEW RECORD LOWS.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY JULY 27 ARE AS FOLLOWS...

CITY RECORD LOW/DATE FORECAST LOW TEMP

BISMARCK 43F/1994 41F
JAMESTOWN 44F/1904 41F
MINOT 40F/1925 42F
WILLISTON 40F/1908 43F
DICKINSON 40F/1971 43F

CONSIDERING THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH...EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THIS IS THE
OPTIMAL LOCATION FOR OBTAINING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ALSO HAD SOME PATCHY FOG FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

FOR SATURDAY...SUNNY WEST...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CENTRAL.
EXPECT MID TO LATE MORNING CUMULUS AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BECOME MUCH STRONGER..AND THIS WILL
INHIBIT ANY FURTHER BUILD UPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL
BE A SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD EARLY ON...THEN
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 70F
CENTRAL TO THE MID 70S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

WE TRANSITION FROM A COOL AND DRY PERIOD BACK TO A WARMER AND
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AFTERWARDS...A RETURN TO A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK
WHEN WE MAY SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
MONTANA ROCKIES AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ALBERTA.
LATEST 12Z MODELS HAVE AGAIN SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA...AND NOW KEEP ALL
PRECIPITATION OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT
I HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING WARMER AIR TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS WARMING BACK TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK WEST AND MID TO
UPPER 70S CENTRAL. WE START TO SEE INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES
HELPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WHILE I HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST...12Z NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED SO WILL CONSIDER TRENDING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON DRY WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES EASTWARD...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FAVORABLY INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS
THE STATE. COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...EXPECT TO SEE A RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD FROM
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AS FAR AS SEVERE
WEATHER...LINGERING CLOUDS FROM SUNDAY NIGHTS EXPECTED CONVECTION
COULD VERY WELL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...FOR MONDAY.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS ARE NOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THE 12Z NAM...WHILE A FAST OUTLIER...WOULD FAVOR
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THUS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MODEL TRENDS THE
NEXT FEW PERIODS.

AFTER THIS SHORT PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER...MODELS FORECAST A RETURN
TO A QUIETER WEATHER PERIOD TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT REDEVELOPING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER S/WV RIDGE. WHILE CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THE OVERALL PATTERN
TUESDAY-THURSDAY WOULD NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. AS WE
PROCEED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD DEVELOPING AS FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL AGAIN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

A SCT TO BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL COVER ALL THE AERODROMES THROUGH
03Z SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED...CLOUD BASES WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 3500FT TO 7000FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR TOWARD 06Z SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1138 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

MADE A FEW ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO TIMING OF POPS AS SHOWERS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST TO
NORTH CENTRAL CWA. DEW POINT VALUES HAVE BEEN HOLDING IN THE MID
TO LOW 50S. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN...BUT IT IS
STILL PRETTY FAR NORTH AND SO BUMPED UP LOWS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES A DEGREE OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

ADJUSTED POPS/WX FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS. MOST
OF THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
UNDER THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE PRIMARY VORT MAX WILL DIG DOWN INTO
THE CWA LATER ON TONIGHT...AND THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DECENT PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS EASTWARD. THE RAP ON THE OTHER HAND...IS PRETTY SPARSE
WITH PRECIP OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA AS MUCH OF THE
CANADIAN ACTIVITY DISSIPATES BEFORE MOVING SOUTH. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL NOT PULL POPS COMPLETELY OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT REDUCED THEM QUITE A BIT TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS PARTICULARLY FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. ALSO CUT THE
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. TEMPS STILL
SEEM ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH FITS WITH GUIDENCE...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH DEW POINTS AS THE DRIER AIR STILL SEEMS WELL NORTH
IN MANITOBA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN CWA...BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT MORE ON RADAR UP
OVER CANADA ALONG WITH THE MAIN UPPER VORT LOBE. WILL KEEP THE
HIGH CHANCE POPS WE HAVE GOING FOR NOW AS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE
AGAIN AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE AREA. DID CHANGE THE WX TO
MENTION SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER AS NOT MUCH LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN SEEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUDS
AND TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN TEMPS. MODELS RUNNING PRETTY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY
SO NO BIG FORECAST CHANGES EXPECTED.

QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS FORMED AGAIN TODAY. ALSO SEEING POPCORN
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE. ONE STORM AROUND CLEARWATER
COUNTY IN MN WAS BRIEFLY SEVERE BUT HAS SINCE FADED. SEEING QUITE
A BIT OF UPSTREAM SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA ASSOCIATED WITH A NICE SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO ROTATE THRU THE FA TONIGHT SO SHOULD SEE STEADY OR EVEN
INCREASING SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE WAVE SOME MAY EVEN LAST WELL AFTER DARK. THE CUMULUS FIELD
SHOULD THIN OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT THERE ARE MORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE THAT WILL DROP THRU
TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP CLOUD AMOUNTS UP. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN STEADY
OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FA EARLY FRI BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE ANOTHER PIECE THAT WILL ROTATE THRU DURING THE DAY FRI.
500MB TEMPS ARE QUITE CHILLY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF
CUMULUS FORMATION AGAIN AND MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS MAY
HANG AROUND INTO FRI AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL ND FRI NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT THERE (NEAR RECORD LOWS).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

SFC HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL SAT INTO SUNDAY. POSITION OF THE HIGH
SAT NIGHT FAVORS COLDEST TEMPS IN THE EASTERN FA. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR RECORD LOWS AGAIN.

FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AN UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
KEEP THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD DRY...BUT THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF
TSTMS MON AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND IMPROVE BY EARLY WED MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEK
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. KGFK AND KTVF COULD ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE BAND OF CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE CU REDEVELOPS AND CIGS OF AROUND 5000 FT RETURN.
NORTH WINDS WILL DIE OFF A BIT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TONIGHT BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

745 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY...WITH PEAK SUPPORT TO OUR SOUTH.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME CLEARING AND HEATING OVER THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS
REALIZING SOME CAPE WITH SOME TALLER CELLS AND A LITTLE BIT OF
LIGHTNING NOW TO BE FOUND IN THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. VORT MAX
HAS BEEN A BIT LESS EFFECTIVE THAN EXPECTED IN TERMS OF COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE TRI STATE AREA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND
TRENDED THESE POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE BRINGING THEM BACK TO LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONT. FEEL THE
BEST GUIDANCE OUT THERE RIGHT NOW IS THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL WRF
MODELS...AND LEAN ON THESE THROUGH TE 12Z TIME FRAME. REMOVE
THUNDER CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THAT TIMING THAT LATE MAY
STILL BE TOO GENEROUS IN THAT SENSE.

POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT CLEAR OUT QUICKLY. HIDDEN IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL BE A BAND OF MOISTURE AND A RESULTANT LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK. THIS SHOULD ERODE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LOWLANDS
BY EVENING...BUT LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS BEYOND 00Z MONDAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND MID 70S FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE
LOWLANDS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT BY
TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW
TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES INTO THE
MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY. ALL THE MODELS LATCH ONTO
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK...
TIMING...AND QPF. THIS IS DUE TO HOW MUCH THE FLOW ACTUALLY BACKS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THERE IS REALLY NO MODEL CONSENSUS
TO EXUDE HIGH CONFIDENCE...SO WILL BASICALLY GO WITH PERSISTENCE ON
OUR FORECAST...AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE AREA...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD TO ARRIVE
AS SOON AS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WITH
MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL MAKE MONDAY...AND EVEN INTO
TUESDAY... A RATHER TRANQUIL AND UNOPPRESSIVE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD MID WEEK
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...WILL FOCUS ON A MORE
SOUTHERN IMPACT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND WITH ANY
ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TENDING TO SINK SOUTH AND EAST. WILL
LINGER POPS INTO THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY LATER THURSDAY WITH DRIER
WEATHER...MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES RETURNING THROUGH
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR A
POSSIBLE WET WEEKEND. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NR 00Z COLD FRONT FROM W OF CMH TO NEAR LEX. DISTURBANCE ALOFT
TRIES TO CATCH UP TO THE FRONT 00Z TO 03Z...SO COVERAGE TO
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. DIFFICULT TO FIGURE HOW
FAR EAST TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN TAFS WITH THAT FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
THUNDER IN OHIO RIVER VALLEY TAFS INCLUDING HTS AND PKB...AND GO
MAINLY WITH SHOWERS FURTHER EAST.

PRIOR TO THE FRONT...SOME GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS FROM
THE BKW VCNTY ON NNE TO EKN DURING THE 01Z TO 05Z TIME FRAME.

ANOTHER DILEMMA...WHAT HAPPENS TO THE CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT. AT
00Z...THE CLOUDS SCATTER AND LIFT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
YET...UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME 2 TO 3 THSD
FT BROKEN CEILINGS BEHIND FRONT UNTIL ABOUT 15Z IN WV THEN LIFT WITH
MIXING BY 18Z SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAY CONTAIN
THUNDER FURTHER EAST INTO WV THAN FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME
FRAME. CLOUDS MAY SCATTERED OUT SOONER IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SUN 07/28/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H M H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H M M H H H H M H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN
TUESDAY. IFR COULD DEVELOP IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

233 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED A BIT...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. INSTABILITY AND AMPLE UPPER MOISTURE IS HELPING TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE AREAS EXPECTED TO GET THE MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ARE MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES...WITH THE HRRR SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED LIGHTNING STRIKES SUPPORTING THIS. A RED
FLAG WARNING AT RFW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE...EASTERN MODOC...AND
EXTREME EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES. WEST OF THE CASCADES CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...AS IS SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND IN THE CURRENT
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS LIMITED IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

A COOLDOWN AND TRANSITION TOWARD NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNDERWAY TONIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. TOMORROW THERE
IS ONE MORE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY THERE. ELSEWHERE...WESTERLIES AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE MARINE LAYER
WILL DEEPEN AND SEND CLOUDS FURTHER INLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
MORNINGS...REACHING ROSEBURG BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOG WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AT THE COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS AND CLOUD BASES
RISE SOME...WITH DRIZZLE.

DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING DRIZZLE MAY AFFECT THE NORTH COAST AREA AROUND
NORTH BEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND HAVE
KEPT THEM OUT OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW ALOFT...SIGNALING A CONTINUING STABLE AIR
MASS.

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS HAS CLEARED FROM THE COASTAL AREAS
THIS MORNING...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS OF
COOS AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING...PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. INLAND...VFR IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHEASTWARD INTO
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ356.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

NSK/NSK/BPN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

1140 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

.AVIATION...
A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST COMING UP FOR THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. ISSUE NUMBER ONE IS THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TIMING. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT TO AFTER 00Z TOMORROW
EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT BACK A
FEW HOURS AND WILL BEGIN THE WINDS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
23Z...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN
2 AND 3Z FOR THE METROPLEX TERMINALS. FOR WACO...HAVE FOLLOWED
SUIT FOR THE TIMING CHANGE...DELAYING BY 2 HOURS OR SO.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MCS GOING AND REACHING
THE METROPLEX BY 12-14Z. WHILE THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS POINT.
THE 03Z TAFS WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM.

FOX

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH NORTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA/KANSAS/NW TEXAS. SO FAR ACTIVITY HAS NOT
CONGEALED INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS...LIKELY DUE TO ANVIL LEVEL WINDS
BEING MUCH FASTER THAN INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTIONS. THIS MEANS
CONVECTION HAS A HARD TIME DEVELOPING A STRONG COLD POOL THAT
HELPS TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND EVENTUALLY AN
ORGANIZED MCS. MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING
TENDS OCCUR MOST EASILY WHEN STRATIFORM/ANVIL PRECIPITATION TRAILS
CONVECTIVE CELL MOTIONS. SINCE STRONG ANVIL LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN MORE
SCATTERED IN AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH THE CHANCE OF A
MCS BLASTING THROUGH THE REGION AT SUNRISE RATHER LOW. HOWEVER THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE INTO THE NW ZONES LATE
TONIGHT AND WITH A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
TO CHANCE IN THE NW ZONES AND BROUGHT THE SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND POPS INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE.

TR.92

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013/

WEATHER CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS OF COLORADO WILL ALSO
MOVE SOUTHEAST REACHING NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COMPLEX MAY
ALSO DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY FROM CONVECTION
THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE LUBBOCK AREA. THE HRRR IS
SUGGESTING THE COMPLEX IN THE PANHANDLE WILL MOVE EAST REACHING
THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT...BUT WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE HRRR IS ALSO FARTHER
EAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COMPLEX THAN WHERE CURRENT
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AROUND THE LUBBOCK AREA. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS OUT WEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL
INCLUSION OF POPS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL EAST OR EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND COULD GRAZE OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER
BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AFTER DAYBREAK. THE
MODELS CONSISTENTLY KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THIS COMPLEX NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER...EXCEPT DIPPING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE 4 KM WRF IS THE ONLY MODEL
EXPLICITLY SHOWING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX FARTHER
SOUTH...MOVING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER.

A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
BUT MORE SCATTERED RAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AND
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE RAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BUT WILL STILL CARRY
LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF
THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG OR
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BOTH BE THREATS. AS MENTIONED IN
THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COMING OFF THE OKLAHOMA MCS THAT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD INHIBIT
WARMING AND INSTABILITY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL VARY FROM THE MID 80S IN THE NORTHEAST
WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER... COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED REGION-WIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND UPPER 90S TO
TRIPLE DIGITS WILL RETURN.

82/JLD

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 95 72 92 73 / 20 40 30 10 5
WACO, TX 77 98 75 94 74 / 10 30 30 10 10
PARIS, TX 74 86 67 90 69 / 20 60 30 10 5
DENTON, TX 76 90 69 91 70 / 20 50 20 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 75 89 69 91 70 / 20 50 30 10 5
DALLAS, TX 80 95 73 92 75 / 20 40 30 10 5
TERRELL, TX 77 94 71 92 71 / 10 50 30 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 77 97 74 93 73 / 10 40 30 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 75 98 75 94 73 / 10 30 30 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 75 95 70 93 71 / 20 40 30 10 5

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

220 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NEARLY
ALL FOG HAS BURNED OFF THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A BROKEN CANOPY OF
LOW AND MID CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. RADAR IS CLEAR AT THE MOMENT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
AFTER LAST NIGHTS SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT OF ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. STUCK CLOSE TO THE
WRF MODEL SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE RAP MODEL...WHICH APPEARS
OVERDONE ON THE COVERAGE. MAY SEE ONE OR TWO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN MORE ON THE WEAK SIDE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...WILL SEE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE +14 TO +16 RANGE BY 00Z/8PM TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRAVELS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD. INITIALLY TRIMMED BACK POPS SATURDAY
MORNING THEN KEPT LIKELY TO CAT POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS STILL SHOWED GOOD DYNAMICS WITH DECENT 25-30KT
LLJ/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INDICATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE A POSSIBILITY WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT EXPECTED. WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE...SHIFT HIGHER POPS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. DRY AIR PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. REMOVED THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE
COOLER AIRMASS REACHES THE PIEDMONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHSIDE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SLOWED THE RETURN OF MOISTURE TUESDAY BUT ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.

AFTER TUESDAY...A MUCH MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
A ZONAL FLOW NOTED NORTH OF ABOUT 35 DEG LAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
AN ALMOST ENDLESS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK WITHIN THIS ZONAL
FLOW AND IMPINGE ON AN INCREASINGLY WARM/HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TOWARD +15 TO +18C BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A RAIN EVENT
THAN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT AT THIS POINT AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL. AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT A SERIES OF MCS/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND SPREAD SE TOWARD OUR REGION. NOTABLE
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AT THAT TIME...SO WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS INCREASINGLY VOLATILE PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL...THEN TREND TOWARD
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AS THE
STRATOCU FIELD HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH BASES
ACROSS MOST AREAS NOW ABOVE 3KFT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER...HOWEVER GROWTH OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OUTSIDE OF
LOCAL EFFECTS.

SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SMALL...BUT WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN THAT CAN REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1SM.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...AND EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MVFR CEILINGS
TO RIDE IN FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG EARLY IN THE NIGHT...HOWEVER INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT
HIGHLY LIMITED.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MORE SO FROM ROA WESTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN ADDITION TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS.

ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER...BUT NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AFTER THE RAIN.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1017 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT THURSDAY...

WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY...WILL SEE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE +14 TO +16 RANGE BY 00Z/8PM TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SLOWED THE RETURN OF MOISTURE TUESDAY BUT ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL...THEN TREND TOWARD
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LIFR FOG AT KLWB THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z/10AM.

WINDS REMAIN WEAK TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND SOUTH OF KROA AND
KBCB THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THESE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

736 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT THURSDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DISSIPATED BUT SATELLITE PICTURES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED STRATOCUMULUS...MAINLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND PATCHY FOG IN THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WAS DEVELOPING OVER WEST VIRGINIA.

00Z LOCAL WRF...LATEST RUC MODELS AND HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE
NAM AD GFS ALL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
THEN OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING
THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP LIFT ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE.

UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED
TO BE FROM EASTERN MICHIGAN TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WELL WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06A/2AM.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE +14 TO +16 RANGE BY 00Z/8PM
TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SLOWED THE RETURN OF MOISTURE TUESDAY BUT ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL...THEN TREND TOWARD
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT FRIDAY...

LIFR FOG AT KLWB THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z/10AM.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/RAB
AVIATION...AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

438 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT THURSDAY...

00Z LOCAL WRF...LATEST RUC MODELS AND HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE
NAM AD GFS ALL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE +14 TO +16 RANGE BY 00Z/8PM
TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SLOWED THE RETURN OF MOISTURE TUESDAY BUT ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WEST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL...THEN TREND TOWARD
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECTING MVFR FOG AT DAN AMD BLF OVERNIGHT. STRATOCUMULUS MAY
KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT LYH UNTIL AROUND 11/7AM. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF THE FORMATION OF IFR TO LIFR FOG AT LWB AND BCB
AFTER 09Z/5AM THIS MORNING.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN WEAK ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SOUTH OF KROA AND KBCB.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1115 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ALONG IT.

CURRENTLY...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
IN FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS PROPAGATING EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADER TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORT MAX PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IR
IMAGERY AND BECOMING MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED TO KEEP A BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS GOING ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WEST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA. 26.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS OF
500-1000 J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FROM
NORTHWEST IOWA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS COMBINATION OF
THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO FUEL SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE TROUGH/FRONT ARE GOING TO PASS
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY TODAY AS THIS MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH WRAPS
UP. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS INTO THE
1000-1500J/KG RANGE AND A 500MB JET STREAK PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE 26.00Z TO 26.06Z MESO-GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE COLD FRONT IS ALREADY GOING TO BE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 17-19Z WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL COMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. AM
NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE OUTBREAK BY ANY MEANS...BUT THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO
ORGANIZE A FEW UPDRAFTS AND SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARD DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS.
THE HIGHER SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN WISCONSIN
WHERE THERE WILL BE A LONGER PERIOD OF WARMING BEFORE THE STORMS
GET IN.

AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION AND COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND BOTH FRONTS TO MARK
THE BEGINNING OF AN UNSEASONABLY COOL PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO HOW COLD IT WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM
NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE 26.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES AT -1.5 TO -2.5 DEVIATIONS FROM THE NORM WHICH TYPICALLY
INDICATE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. WITH QUESTIONS
IN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING...HAVE NOT GONE BELOW
RECORD LOWS OR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BUT HAVE KEPT THEM
CLOSE. AT LSE...THE RECORD LOW HIGH FOR SATURDAY IS 69 AND FOR
SUNDAY IS 66 WHILE THE RECORD LOWS ARE 48 ON SATURDAY/50 ON
SUNDAY. AT RST...THE LOW MAX FOR SATURDAY IS 64/SUNDAY IS 63 WHILE
THE RECORD LOW IS 47 ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 26.00Z FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON TO
WHERE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WOBBLES EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN FAR
SOUTHWEST CANADA...WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS CANADA. INSTABILITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT ALL OF THESE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NEEDED...BUT WITH THE LINGERING TROUGH NEARBY CAN NOT
RULE THEM OUT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM +4C ON SATURDAY TO +13C BY TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH LED TO SOME BRIEF
CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK. HOWEVER...WITH THE SFC/UPPER LEVEL
LOW HANGING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE WAS USHERING IN ANOTHER MVFR/VFR CLOUD MASS WHICH WILL
QUICKLY COVER KRST/KLSE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND THUS EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

THE BIG AVIATION QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE MVFR CIGS STICK
AROUND. LIKELY GET SOME DIURNAL INCREASE IN HEIGHTS AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON...BUT RAP/NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT-SATURDAY. DIURNAL CLOUD ELEMENTS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...BUT THINK
A LOT OF THE CLOUDS WILL STAY INTACT. GOING TO HOLD ONTO BKN CIGS
FOR NOW...BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE IF SUBSIDENCE WINS
OUT TONIGHT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

1057 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
FORTUNATELY CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY BREAKS TO HELP DESTABLIZE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. STORMS
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING BUT SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OTHER THAN LOCALLY BREIF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A BASIC HANDLE ON THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
OVER CENTRAL WISCOSNIN TAKING IT INTO NORTHERN WISCOSNIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING IT SOME. HRRR ALSO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHCENRAL WISCONSIN
WHICH IT THEN FORECASTS TO MOVE INTO THE FOX VALLEY BY 3 OR 4 PM.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.

GRB RADAR HAS BEEN UNSTABLE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO...THUS HAD TO BE
TAKEN DOWN FOR SOME MAINTENANCE UNTIL ABOUT 2 PM...THUS RELYING
ON SURROUNDING RADARS.

EB
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

AT 08Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE CONVECTION
WAS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THE MODELS DEPICTED...THERE IS A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE AROUND
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS OFF THE WRF MODEL USING TEMP OF 75 AND
DEW POINT OF 61 GAVE ME AROUND 1500 J/KG...WINDEX VALUES OF 40 TO
45 KNOTS AND WET BULB HEIGHTS BETWEEN TEN AND ELEVEN THOUSAND FEET.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...DAY
1 OUTLOOK HAS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN IN THE
SLIGHT RISK. IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE GET THIS
MORNING...AND IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD MESS UP EXPECTED
CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
SOUNDINGS TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH WAS IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

THE BIG CHANGE WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR. CAN NOT STOMACH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AT THE END OF JULY. WITH CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
AROUND...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THE PESKY CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WL FINALLY LIFT NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A GENERAL TROFFINESS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF CANADA/NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS NEXT
WEEK. THIS W-NW FLOW ALOFT WL INITIALLY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD. PCPN CHCS
MAINLY TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUE INTO WED.

UPR LOW TO CONT SPINNING AROUND UPR MI/NRN LAKE MI SAT NGT WITH
ANY INSTABILITY SHWRS/TSTMS DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES. THAT BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW SHWRS LINGER THRU THE NGT AS A CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS UPR LOW WL KEEP SOME
GRADIENT WINDS THRU THE NGT AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A DECENT AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD UP DESPITE THE COOL AIR
OVERHEAD. LOOK FOR READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR 40S TO LWR 50S.

THE UPR LOW FINALLY BEGINS A NE DRIFT ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
RISING UPR HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AIR MASS OVER WI WL NOT
BE AS COLD ALOFT COMPARED TO SAT...HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A
SLGT CHC OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHWRS AS SFC TEMPS WARM. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO BE ALMOST 5 DEGS WARMER THAN SAT WHICH WOULD PLACE
READINGS IN THE LWR TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NE WI SUNDAY NGT
AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY AND A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES MOVES
IN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEGIN TO EASE OVRNGT AND WITH SKIES
BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...TEMPS COULD FALL MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WHICH
GIVES MID TO UPR 40S NORTH...LWR 50S E-CNTRL WI. A PLEASANT DAY ON
TAP ON MON AS THE SFC HI TO RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE
AN APPRECIABLE JUMP UP WITH MAX TEMPS AT LEAST BACK INTO THE 70S.

THE MEAN FLOW TO BE QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MDLS INDICATING THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
PACIFIC SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS. THE FIRST PART OF
THIS SYSTEM TO BE PRIMARY WAA RETURNING TO THE REGION AS 8H TEMPS
TO RISE INTO THE LWR TEENS CELSIUS ON TUE. THE PLUS SIDE HERE IS
WARMER TEMPS RETURNING WITH MAX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.
THE SECOND PART OF THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES TUE NGT IN THE FORM OF AN
ADVANCING CDFNT WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH NE WI BY 12Z WED. THERE
ARE MDL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE FORWARD SPEED OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO HARD TO DETERMINE WHERE TO HIT THE POPS
THE HARDEST. IN FACT...IF THE CDFNT SLOWS DOWN MUCH AT ALL...THE
BETTER PCPN CHCS MAY HOLD OFF TIL WED. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR
BOTH TUE NGT AND WED WITH THIS FNT IN OUR VICINITY.

FCST AT THE END OF THE LONG-TERM HAS PLENTY OF DOUBT AS THE MDLS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. SUCH A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FAVORS A
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES A SLGT CHC POP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING NORTH OF KGRB AT 11Z THIS MORNING.
SKY COVER VARIED FROM VFR TO MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE SOME IFR CIGS WERE
REPORTED ACROSS VILAS COUNTY (KARV/KEGV). COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE OR END LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AN USUAL UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON DUE TO SOUTHERLY
FETCH UP THE LENGTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND VEER
TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN USUAL JULY UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF WATER SPOUTS
ON LAKE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
MARINE.........ECKBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

605 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ALONG IT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. PLAN ON
SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOK FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO TAKE PLACE FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES...ACROSS CENTRAL INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25KT
RANGE WILL TAKE PLACE. ALSO...LOOK FOR THE MVFR/IFR CLOUD TO SCATTER
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. KEPT A VCSH MENTION IN AT KLSE AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS DRIER/COOLER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

315 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND THE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ALONG IT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

STILL SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION UP STREAM OF THE AREA ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY...IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PASS NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES...BUT MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO KLSE TO INCLUDE THE MENTION
OF A VCSH AROUND 09Z. LITTLE OR NO CAPE IS IN PLACE SO IF THE
ACTIVITY DOES HOLD TOGETHER WOULD NOT EXPECT IT TO STILL BE
PRODUCING ANY LIGHTNING AND ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE GETTING TO THE AREA ONCE IT RUNS OUT
OF CAPE. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG OVERNIGHT AS SKIES ARE
CLEARING AND WITH THE MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S RAIN...COULD SEE SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND SOME LIFT FROM THE PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SOME
SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW A VCSH AT KLSE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

306 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

TODAY: WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING RESULTING IN A BAND OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHICH HAS PRODUCED STEADY RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING
FORCING ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE
MOIST WITH FORECASTED PW AROUND 1.3 INCHES TODAY. WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY AS
A WEAK JET BRUSHES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
FORECAST QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AND
REDUCE DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...STORM MOTION WILL
BE RELATIVELY FAST AGAIN TODAY. FOR THESE REASONS...DID NOT HOIST
ANY FLOODING HIGHLIGHTS BUT DID MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN
THE FORECAST. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SETTLED
OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS...ABUNDANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST-WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TRENDING SLOWER IN DRYING THINGS OUT AND NOW SUPPORT PW
VALUES OF 0.8-1.0 INCHES INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC RIPPLES
AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE MODEST DYNAMIC LIFT WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING EVEN
WITH THE LOSS/LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE
DECENT AT AROUND 15 KT FROM THE SW-W WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...BUT WITH WET
SOILS IN PLACE ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN. MODELS
DUE HINT AT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
SOMEWHAT MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE BUT
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PW VALUES BEGIN A GRADUAL
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT FALLING TO AROUND 0.6 INCHES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ZONAL
FLOW WILL FEATURE MORE RIDGING TUESDAY PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE CAUSING
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN AND ACROSS THE NORTH.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES.

RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN COLORADO WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND FLATTEN AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. AS A RESULT...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL RETURN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
A DOWNTURN ON SUNDAY. SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z WITH ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY INCREASING BY LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES AFTER 16Z.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM...MPM/TB
LONG TERM...MPM/TB
AVIATION...TGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

455 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DELIVERS
DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES NEW
ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
445 AM UPDATE... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR INDICATING A LARGE
MCS BRUSHING OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. COLD TOPS AS LOW AS -70C OVERNIGHT WITH THE MCS BASED ON
IR IMAGERY. BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF RADAR RETURNS...LIGHTNING
RETURNS...AND LATEST RAP/NAM MODELS...HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...FALLING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND BEYOND. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS HIGHEST CG FREQUENCY WILL PASS
E OF ACK.

THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN THE AREAS THAT GET
RAIN...AND THOSE THAT DO NOT FROM THIS LOW. HAVE TAPERED THE POPS SO
THAT WESTERN MA IS DRY THIS MORNING...CHANCE POP FOR MOST OF EAST
COASTAL MA AND RI...THEN CATEGORICAL FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS TO START OFF THE DAY.

WEAK SURFACE LOW WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY LATE MORNING. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS FOR JULY WEST OF OUR CWA...BUT THE
BEST DYNAMICAL LIFT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NW AND N OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DURING THIS AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED FORCING TO
TAP INTO INSTABILITY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHEST POPS OVER CT RIVER VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT... HIGH CHANCE POP IN PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER JET FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO FOR TONIGHT AN ITEM OF CONCERN IS THAT RAP AND NAM
INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKING NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AS OF 0830Z. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT LATCHING ONTO
THIS FEATURE BUT THIS MAY BE ANOTHER ITEM TO MONITOR FOR THE 12Z
MODEL RUN. AS MENTIONED...CHANCE POPS IN PLACE.

DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL GIVE A MUGGY FEEL TO THE
AIR AND LIKELY CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF FOG.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRIER/LESS HUMID AND COOLER MON NGT THRU WED
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AT TIMES THU-SAT WITH RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK AS UPPER AIR FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE MARKED BY A ROBUST/ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM JET
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. AS THIS
FEATURE TRAVERSES NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IT SWEEPS A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MON WITH A MUCH DRIER/LESS HUMID POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MON AND CONTINUING INTO
WED. BY THU RENEWED SHORT WAVE ENERGY RELOADS/REINVIGORATES THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SERIES OF JET IMPULSES AND ATTENDING FRONTS TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND ECENS AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A TREND TOWARD COOLER WEATHER AS THE POLAR VORTEX
MOVES EQUATORWARD INTO NORTHEAST QUEBEC.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG JET DYNAMICS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE +3 STD JET STREAK OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND ITS RRQ CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PROVIDES 0-6 KM
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT. MODEST INSTABILITY PROJECTED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT WITH ECMWF/GFS AND NAM INDICATING MUCAPES UP 1500J/KG
AT 18Z MON ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. HOWEVER LIMITING FACTOR HERE
FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL COLUMN DRIES OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THUS WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS SHOULD MONITOR FOR
ANY CHANGES.

LOOKING AT A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START AND POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BECOME LESS HUMID FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SPECTACULAR WEATHER WITH MUCH DRIER/LESS HUMID
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION YIELDING HIGHS
U70S/L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S! SOME WARMING/AIRMASS MODIFICATION
WED WITH H85 TEMPS GOING FROM +10C TUE TO ABOUT +12C WED.
NONETHELESS ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU SAT...THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY
A PARADE OF SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME RANGE ITS TOO DIFFICULT WITH ANY SKILL TO PIN-DOWN EXACT TIMING
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THUS WILL FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
HERE. NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE SHOULD BE MAIN
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS MORINING...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG ACROSS TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY MID
MORNING. ACROSS EAST COASTAL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS CROSSING THE AREA
EARLY...SHOULD DEPART BY 14Z.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR PREVAILING AT TERMINALS EXCEPT CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SUN NIGHT...EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS
DEVELOPING IN AREAS OF FOG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
BE PREVALENT EARLY THIS MORNIING...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS. TSTM CLUSTER IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAPE AND
COASTAL WATERS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A TSTM MAY COME CLOSE TO
KBOS AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN VFR. CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...VFR LIKELY. LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM.

TUE AND WED...VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

THU...VFR LIKELY WITH A LOW RISK OF SHRA.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS PRODUCED A SIZEABLE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WERE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AS OF 445 AM. A PORTION
OF THIS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL CROSS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 10 AM OR SO. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED.

THE LOW SHOULD PASS NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST...WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...OTHER THAN LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS FROM TSTMS EARLY
THIS MORNING ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT WIND AND/OR WAVES-SWELLS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

MON...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE.

TUE AND WED...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH WEAK PRES OVER THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

THU...WEAK LOW PRES MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/NMB
MARINE...NOCERA/NMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

408 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...

310 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN TEMPERATURES TODAY/TONIGHT AND
THEN CONVECTIVE TRENDS/POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

CLOUD COVER AND WINDS UP TO 10 MPH HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S MOST AREAS AND WITH CLOUD COVER THICKENING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH BEST
CHANCE OF ANY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO. ANOTHER
POCKET OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH 850MB TEMPS PERHAPS AS LOW AS +3C. THIS COMBINED WITH
A WEAK WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ALSO POSSIBLE BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON HIGH TEMPS AND STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...MID/UPPER 60S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 70 FAR
SOUTH. NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THUS MONDAY IS LOOKING MUCH WARMER...
THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
PERHAPS UPPER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THOUGH SHOULD HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPS.

CONFIDENCE THEN BEGINS TO DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL DRY HOURS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT LOW CHANCE POPS
STILL SEEM WARRANTED FROM THIS DISTANCE. BULK OF ANY PRECIP LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY STILL SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE AREA
HOWEVER. PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SEEMS LIMITED WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH STILL
LOOKS DRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT/WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A BIT EARLY FOR SPECIFICS WITH THIS
ESPECIALLY TIMING...BUT SOME CONSENSUS AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF FOR
CONTINUED COOL NORTHWEST FLOW NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LOW NOT
THAT FAR AWAY...ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. CMS

.CLIMATE...

CURRENT RECORD LOWEST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS FOR
SUN AND SUN OVERNIGHT-MON MORNING...

ROCKFORD CHICAGO

SUN JUL 28TH...

LO 46(1925) 51(1984)

HI 65(1962) 66(1981)

SUN OVERNIGHT/MON JUL 29TH...

LO 47(1925) 50(1984)

TRS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.

ALLSOPP

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

UNUSUALLY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE WAS WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING.
RADAR SHOWED ONE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER LAKE MI ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WITH ANOTHER POCKET OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST
WI...SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE FROM HRRR DEPICTS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IL AROUND DAYBREAK AND INTO NW IN BY MID MORNING. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT AND VERY SPOTTY BUT HAVE ADDED A VCSH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER.

THERE IS CURRENTLY A LARGE BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHORT WAVE BUT VFR CIGS IN THE RANGE OF 5000-10000 FEET WILL
FILL BACK IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SHOWERS AND SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS NOTED IN
OBSERVATIONS OVER WESTERN WI. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A
BRIEF 2000-3000 FOOT CIG THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. AFTER THE SHOWER THREAT PASSES TO THE EAST...EXPECT VFR
CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY IN THE COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW. A SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
BEYOND MID MORNING AT THIS TIME. MAY SEE SOME CLEARING THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST.

WINDS ARE GENERALLY WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS MAY BACK
SLIGHTLY TO WSW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN SHIFT MORE WNW AS THE WAVE PASSES BY MID TO LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALLSOPP

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SHOWER AT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN BRIEF MVFR CIG AROUND 2500 FT THIS MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

ALLSOPP

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.

TUESDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA...SLGT CHC TS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHC TSRA.

THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC TSRA.

TRS

.MARINE...
135 AM CDT

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY BEFORE
WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MANITOBA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FEW WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALLSOPP

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ002 UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

310 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...

310 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN TEMPERATURES TODAY/TONIGHT AND
THEN CONVECTIVE TRENDS/POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.CLIMATE...

CURRENT RECORD LOWEST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS FOR
SUN AND SUN OVERNIGHT-MON MORNING...

ROCKFORD CHICAGO

SUN JUL 28TH...

LO 46(1925) 51(1984)

HI 65(1962) 66(1981)

SUN OVERNIGHT/MON JUL 29TH...

LO 47(1925) 50(1984)

TRS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS 11Z-15Z.

ALLSOPP

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

ALLSOPP

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS OR MVFR CIGS AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. DIRECTION MAY VARY
BETWEEN 250 AND 290.

ALLSOPP

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.

TUESDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA...SLGT CHC TS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHC TSRA.

THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC TSRA.

TRS

.MARINE...
135 AM CDT

ALLSOPP

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ002 UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY
IN UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

301 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MID-SEPTEMBER LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. 2 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING DOWN THE PLAINS...THEN NOSING EAST TOWARDS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALOFT A DEEP CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN WI AND A VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE WAS PRODUCING A LARGE SWATH OF STRATO-CU AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER NE IA...NORTHERN IL...AND SOUTHERN WI. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT EMBEDDED IN THIS REGION WAS HELPING DRIVE THE SHOWERS.
THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BRUSH THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH A PERIOD OF
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE DIURNAL CU WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NORTHERN CWA
THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY ABOUT 1 DEGREE WARMER. THEREFORE BASED HIGHS
ON PERSISTENCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THIS PUTS RECORD LOW
HIGHS IN REACH ONCE AGAIN. TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOWS AGAIN WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY IN THE LOWER
50S. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A REGION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS DEVELOPS A
WARM FRONT EAST INTO MISSOURI WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN IL
BY EVENING. 00Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FEEL LINGERING EFFECTS OF
RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WILL ERODE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
AND HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.
POPS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
EDGES EAST ALONG WITH AN INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. INCREASING
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN THE CWA LATE OVERNIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOCUSED
SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO MATTOON LINE WHERE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
BEST LIFT IN REGION OF PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. 1-2 INCH
TOTALS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY PRECIP WILL END TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROF AND FRONT IS NOW SHOWN SHIFTING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT
HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT APPEAR DRY AS A REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THERMAL MODERATION AND
TEMPERATURES UP CLOSER TO...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE-WEEK WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY
FETCH FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. 00Z GUIDANCE
FOCUSES THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
LATE THURSDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE
WAVE AND COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES
AT THIS RANGE AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE FAVORED ECMWF ABOUT 12
HOURS SLOWER...FOCUSING MOST PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

25
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1140 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 7000 FEET WERE TRACKING THROUGH
KPIA AND KBMI LATE SATURDAY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WISCONSIN. RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NOT
TOO MUCH FURTHER SOUTH PROGRESS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...
GENERALLY FOLLOWING WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW.
AS SUCH...WILL LIMIT ANY CEILINGS TO THE KPIA-KCMI CORRIDOR FOR
NOW...AND JUST MENTION SCATTERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. GUSTY WEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CUMULUS. AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
SUNDAY...THE CLOUDS WILL FADE AGAIN TOWARD SUNSET...AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT DUE TO A NARROW AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO IOWA.

GEELHART
&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR JULY 28

LINCOLN.......70 IN 1907
PEORIA........72 IN 1987
SPRINGFIELD...70 IN 1907

RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 29

LINCOLN.......47 IN 1925
PEORIA........50 IN 1971
SPRINGFIELD...52 IN 1971

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

148 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...
310 PM CDT

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS
TASTE OF FALL WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION AROUND DEEPENING AND EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN LAKES AND RESULTANT BLOSSOMING OF
STRATOCU DECK PREVENTED MUCH OF A CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THUS RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR THE DATE WERE SET FOR
BOTH OF OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES. THE +2 850 MB TEMP SAMPLED AT MSP
THIS MORNING ADVECTED TOWARD THE AREA IN COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
STRONG WAVE NOTED ON AFTERNOON W/V IMAGERY OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WRAPPING SOUTH AROUND THE LOW WILL SPREAD CLOUD
COVER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SO LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
WARMER THAN THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN WITH CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING UPPER 40S WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND
INDIANA FARTHER SOUTH OF THE TRAJECTORY OF THE VORT MAX.
ELSEWHERE...BUMPED UP LOW TEMPS TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. ALSO ADDED
A CHANCE FOR SHRA MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS
NOTED ON LEADING EDGE OF WAVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND FAR NE IA.

ON SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TODAY AND AGAIN EXPECT A BLOSSOMING OF STRATOCU MID SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS MAINLY IN MID AND UPPER 60S...SO WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY FLIRTING WITH RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS. GIVEN LACK OF SHRA OVER CWA TODAY...HAVE CONFINED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/SPRINKLES FOR NORTHEAST 1/3
OF CWA. HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT YIELDING
LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY SET
THE STAGE FOR THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THIS COOL WAVE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MID 40S (!) POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY COLDER RURAL
LOCATIONS. THINK THAT IF BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OFFSET SLOW WARMING TREND ALOFT.

MONDAY WILL FINALLY START THE WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT BUT BEST WAA HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND MORE
LIMITED MIXING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS MEANS THAT HIGHS SHOULD STILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO REACH MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT. A WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO
THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF CWA BY EARLY TUES BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND
LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LOW ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE MODELS RANGING FROM A COMPACT VORT PUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL IL OR A SPLIT WAVE SET-UP WITH ONE ALONG AND NORTH OF FAR
NORTHERN CWA AND SECOND WAVE TO SOUTH. KEPT LOW POPS FOR SHRA AND
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA DUE TO VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT
WHICHEVER SCENARIO PANS OUT WILL DICTATE CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES. IF THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOW BASED ON UPPER
AIR CLIMATOLOGY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TWO SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION...SO MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER A
SHOT AT SOME ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA...THOUGH EARLIER FROPA COULD LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES. ON
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR A DRY FORECAST. THERE IS THEN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH FASTER WNW FLOW ALOFT AROUND CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING...SO
MAINTAINED MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FROM GUIDANCE BLEND. TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE 12Z GFS
SUGGESTED A BIG WARM UP ON FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND +20 BUT THE LATEST ECMWF IS MORE MUTED IN WARM ADVECTION
FRIDAY AND GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

.CLIMATE...

CURRENT RECORD LOWEST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS FOR
SUN AND SUN OVERNIGHT-MON MORNING...

ROCKFORD CHICAGO

SUN JUL 28TH...

LO 46(1925) 51(1984)

HI 65(1962) 66(1981)

SUN OVERNIGHT/MON JUL 29TH...

LO 47(1925) 50(1984)

TRS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS 11Z-15Z.

ALLSOPP

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

ALLSOPP

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS OR MVFR CIGS AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. DIRECTION MAY VARY
BETWEEN 250 AND 290.

ALLSOPP

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.

TUESDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA...SLGT CHC TS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHC TSRA.

THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC TSRA.

TRS

.MARINE...
135 AM CDT

ALLSOPP

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ002 UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1238 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...
310 PM CDT

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

.CLIMATE...

CURRENT RECORD LOWEST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS FOR
SUN AND SUN OVERNIGHT-MON MORNING...

ROCKFORD CHICAGO

SUN JUL 28TH...

LO 46(1925) 51(1984)

HI 65(1962) 66(1981)

SUN OVERNIGHT/MON JUL 29TH...

LO 47(1925) 50(1984)

TRS

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS 11Z-15Z.

ALLSOPP

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

ALLSOPP

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS OR MVFR CIGS AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. DIRECTION MAY VARY
BETWEEN 250 AND 290.

ALLSOPP

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.

TUESDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA...SLGT CHC TS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHC TSRA.

THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRIDAY...VFR. CHC TSRA.

TRS

.MARINE...
240 PM CDT

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODERATELY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY
WARM LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY. AT
LEAST ONE WATERSPOUT HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AND MORE ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO COME DOWN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND SHOULD END THE LAKE EFFECT/WATERSPOUT
CHANCES. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MIDWEEK MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE MIDWEEK...BUT WINDS SHOULD
STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT.

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ002 UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1141 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 825 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST HOURLY TRENDS...BUT PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

GEELHART

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1140 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

GEELHART

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED 820 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING...

GEELHART

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHIMON

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

225 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

JUST ISSUED ANOTHER UPDATE. INITIAL CHANGE WAS TO CANCEL THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. DESPITE THAT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS INCREASING OVER AND TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COVERAGE OVER THE CWA IS ALONG PERSISTENT BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS
HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE WEST. COVERAGE TO THE
WEST INCREASING DUE TO INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF THE JET STAYING OVER THE AREA WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

ALSO PER EARLIER DISCUSSION...ELEVATED INHIBITION DECREASING AS
ELEVATED CAPE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RUC CATCHING THE ABOVE
SCENARIO NICELY...WHICH PUTS A NICE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION DOWN
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. PER THAT AND ABOVE MENTIONED
DATA/TRENDS...FELT GOOD IN INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO INCREASED SKY
COVER AGAIN. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BRINGING THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT TO A ZONAL PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERNS WILL STILL EXIST FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY FOR THE AREA. 850 MB WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH AND ADVECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THETA E VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOK TO BE
AROUND 350 K...INDICATING THAT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS FROM SOUNDING FORECASTS INDICATE SOMEWHAT LOW MOISTURE
AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE PROFILES FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FOR
EACH DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE TRI STATE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GIVING AWAY TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY SLOT OF AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE AROUND NORMAL...WITH
VALUES IN THE HIGH 80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY WITH COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR
SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS COLDER AIR WILL CONDENSE THE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. STABLE AIR ALOFT WITH LOW CAPE AMOUNTS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE STRATIFORM RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE
SATURDAY...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

TRICKY SET OF TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SITE WITH THE MOST
VARIABLE AND LOWEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE KGLD. WIDESPREAD LIGHT
-SHRA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY 12Z WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
STAYING SOUTH OF KMCK. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THROUGH
MID MORNING. WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS...WHEN THE PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP OR ENDS...MVFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS HAVE OCCURRED OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
STRATUS AND FOG.

FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH KGLD HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN PUTTING IN PRECIPITATION THAT FAR OUT. ALSO POSSIBLE
THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD OR RIGHT
AFTER THIS PERIOD.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1155 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TOPEKA KS

1131 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE 00Z PACKAGE COMBINED WITH THE RAP ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLIER ON
SUNDAY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROF
TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST OVER NEBRASKA WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
GENERATING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA TONIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
MAINLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRENDING COOLER
WITH THE PRECIP BANDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LATEST MOD GUIDANCE AGREED WITH THE DECISION TO LOWER HIGHS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH LOW 70S OVER FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS TEMPORARILY
ADVECTED BACK INTO THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A VERY
STRONG JET. THE INCREASING SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY...HAS LED TO REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH 6 PM. THE CLOUDCOVER AND
SCATTERED PRECIP HAS HELD TEMPS SO FAR TO THE MID 70S FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL BE LOCATED PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK
TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. IN FACT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE CWA INCREASE
FROM THE HALF TO AN INCH AND A HALF INCH RANGE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST RESPECTIVELY THIS EVENING TO AN INCH AND A HALF TO TWO
INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WILL
VERY GRADUALLY INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE HIGHEST
POPS...IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY...WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES AND LINE UP WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF QPF. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM ONLY A TRACE NORTH OF HIAWATHA TO NEARLY AN INCH IN SOUTHERN
DICKINSON COUNTY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...SHOULD BE
WITH THE THICKER CLOUDCOVER AND HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

A MID LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING BEHIND FOR MONDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY IMPACT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 2 TO AROUND 3
INCHES. AT THIS TIME WILL EMPHASIZE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH
OF I-70.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD FOCUSING CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL LIFT IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING MID LEVEL WAVE. AGAIN
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING CELLS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALSO INCREASE
AND FOCUS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
COMES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING
BACK INTO THE 80S TUESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 FRIDAY. COOLING OFF

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

SHOULD SEE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK FOR THE NEXT
FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. VFR CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING AT KMHK AFT 13Z
AND KTOP/KFOE AT 15Z. EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SO INSERTED A MENTION OF VCTS ATTM. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO ONSET TIMING MAY NEED TO BE REFINED
IN AMENDMENTS. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND ESPECIALLY
UNDERNEATH THE MODERATE RAIN BANDS...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY IN THE AFTERNOON AT TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VRB
LIGHT WINDS SHIFT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE EAST NEAR SUNRISE BLO 10
KTS.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...BOWEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1004 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...ALW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

142 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...BUT THESE SHOULD BE ALL GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR...LEAVING DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
REPORTS OF FOG IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN WE SAW THIS EVENING AND LOOKS
REASONABLE TO PUT SOME FOG IN FOR THE AREAS WHICH SAW SOME RAIN...AT
LEAST FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY
KICK INTO GEAR WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS WILL
ERODE THE FOG FAIRLY QUICKLY UPON DAYLIGHT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REPRESENT CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE THE LAST OF THE RAIN FROM THE
FORECAST AND MODIFY THE BEST FOG AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

COLD FRONT IS MARCHING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY PRESENTLY AND SHOULD
CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA BY 09Z. THIS WILL BRING DRY
AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...CURRENTLY
IMPACTING KJKL. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS THE DRY
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AND WE SEE SOME SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER OVERSPREAD
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL TURN SOLIDLY VFR
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS ANY FOG BURNS OFF. GOOD POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

111 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough deepening
over northern MN. While this feature is expected to slide southeast
the models have continually shown height falls extending further
south. This will eventually manifest itself in cooler air filtering
further south with time. This system will also maintain northwest
flow into Sunday before finally yielding to rising heights over the
Central Plains and a more zonal look to the h5 heights by late in
the weekend.

Today...What had looked to be a promising morning for rain over most
of the CWA is once again proving to be frustrating, just as it has
all week. Convection has broken into two distinct areas. Scattered
convection over northwest MO is related to the southwest extension
of a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms stretching from
northern IL. Models generally agree that this activity will mainly
affect northern MO. The second area of convection is tied to a MCV
now spinning through east central and southeast KS. The northern
portion of the precipitation shield has shown a slow but steady
decrease in intensity and coverage. Prefer weaker and less coverage
shown by the HRRR solution which favors high PoPs only over the
southwestern counties. In between these two areas of precipitation
will keep low chance PoPs going for possible development later this
morning. Also believe isolated convection could form this afternoon
with whatever convergence is generated as a cold front drops south
through the CWA. Clearing from north to south this afternoon will
allow temperatures to rebound into the lower 80s except for the far
southern counties where clouds/rain will keep readings in the upper
70s.

Tonight...Unseasonably cool high pressure will build southward
through the Plains and MO tonight and provide exceptional sleeping
weather.

Saturday through Sunday...Have had to insert some slight to low
chance PoPs over parts of far west central MO and adjacent eastern
KS as the GFS/NAM/ECMWF are now signaling weak perturbations aloft
embedded within the fickle northwest flow aloft will combine with
weak isentropic ascent and banded frontogenesis to wring out some
light showers/isolated storms. The combo of clouds/precipitation and
the abnormally cool surface high will keep temperatures in the 70s
over the weekend. In addition, overnight temperatures both mornings
may threaten record lows.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

The first half of next week we`ll see very good chances for much
needed rainfall across the area. The best chances look to arrive
Monday evening into Tuesday morning and especially during the
overnight hours. There are several ingredients that really enhance
our chances. The biggest is that there will be a seasonally strong
low level jet nosing right in the Missouri River valley. Ensemble
data suggest this is about 4 standard deviations stronger than
normal for this time of year. We`ll also continue to see
precipitable water values around 2 inches, which is slightly above
normal for this time of year. Models are also in good agreement with
an area of strong isentropic lift and moisture stability flux nosing
into the area Monday night. All this points to very high POPs for
this stretch of time with the potential for a good amount of
precipitation. I actually feel there is a better chance with this
setup than with the northwest flow pattern from last weekend because
of the strength of the LLJ nosing into the area. This is something
that was lacking last weekend. So fingers crossed, a few inches of
rain would go a long way, at this point, to easing the precipitation
deficits we`ve racked up in June and July so far.

With all the likely cloud cover and possible precipitation,
temperatures on Monday should be well below normal across the entire
area. Highs have a strong potential of staying in the 70s. By
Tuesday afternoon, the bulk of the precipitation should be moving
into eastern Missouri with skies clearing from west to east. So we
should be able to climb back to more normal temperatures across
eastern Kansas and western Missouri by the afternoon. It will be
tougher to get to normal in our east as cloud cover and precip may
linger longer into the day.

The next decent chance for rain may come Friday as we once again are
in a northwest flow pattern with weak waves migrating through the
flow. After last weekend though, I`m a little gun shy about going
very high on POPs. The model consensus was to keep things in the
chance category and that sounds reasonable at this point.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

Scattered showers will prevail in areas to the south of Kansas City
for the remainder of the day, though these storms will stay well
clear of the terminals. Scattered to broken cloud cover will continue
to slowly clear from the terminals as a cold front settles through
the region. Light winds expected overnight will return from the north
Saturday morning. Otherwise, have included a hedge towards more
storms in the vicinity of Kansas City for Saturday morning as more
nocturnal activity is expected to slide through eastern Kansas early
in the morning.

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

Abnormally cool high pressure will approach record low temperatures
Saturday and Sunday mornings.

July 27 July 28
Min/Year Min/Year

Kansas City 55/1994 52/1994
St. Joseph 47/1971 53/2005

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter
CLIMATE...MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

630 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

Tonight...Unseasonably cool high pressure will build southward
through the Plains and MO tonight and provide exceptional sleeping
weather.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

Last of the scattered showers over west central MO should exit the
KMKC and KMCI airspace by mid morning. KSTJ should be dry. Could see
a few hours of MVFR cigs with fog, especially KSTJ and KMCI before
winds shift to the north-northwest with passage of a cold front.

Otherwise, VFR conditions with clearing from north to south this
afternoon.

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

Abnormally cool high pressure will approach record low temperatures
Saturday and Sunday mornings.

July 27 July 28
Min/Year Min/Year

Kansas City 55/1994 52/1994
St. Joseph 47/1971 53/2005

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...MJ
CLIMATE...MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

310 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

SHORTWAVE...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP MODEL...WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING GENERATING SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STORMS CONTINUE MOVING E AS MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
30 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR THERE.

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ALBERTA THIS MORNING ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION. JET
ENERGY WILL ALSO PROVIDE UPPER DIVERGENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE HIGHEST E OF KBIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES OVER AN INCH. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A SURFACE LOW N OF KBIL AT 08Z AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY E THROUGH WESTERN MT.

DUE TO THE ABOVE...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND OVER THE E THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY PROFILES
SHOWED 500-1000 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING E OF KBIL AND MODELS HAD 35 TO 40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THUS
WILL MENTION STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE E. FROM KBIL W...INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED GUSTY WINDS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED THE HIGH POPS ALONG THE EASTWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ON MON ALONG THE COLD FRONT SO HAVE
RAISED POPS THERE. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS E OF KBIL WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED THE GOING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD FOR MON AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED ON TRACK. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS HAVE CHANGED IT UP A LITTLE BIT ON THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT
THE OVERALL FEEL IS THE SAME. THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS QUITE
UNSETTLED WITH MANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED
ACROSS THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
A MOIST...PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND AN INCH...AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE STORMS SHOULD BE WET
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTENS UP.

THE MODELS HAVE DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE CONSENSUS NOW IS TO BUILD A RIDGE UP OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AS
A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD
PUSH STRONGER FORCING NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TREND AS MAY
NEED TO LOWER POPS...BUT WILL LEAVE SCATTERED POPS IN FOR NOW AS
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS TEND TO LEAD TO EASY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY AND SETS UP
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FLOW WAS PROGGED TO BE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND DIVERGENT...SO THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. MAY HAVE TO RAISE POPS FURTHER AS THE
DAY APPROACHES...BUT SCATTERED POPS SHOULD COVER THINGS FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF POINTS TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN SHUTTING OFF SUNDAY AS
THE STRONG SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE BUILDS NORTH. THE GFS HAS THE
SAME IDEA...JUST NOT AS AGGRESSIVE ON BUILDING HEIGHTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS DUE TO LOW HEIGHTS...LOW LEVEL EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND...AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THIS ACTIVITY WITH FLYING CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF KBIL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE EVENING. WIND GUSTS
TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. BRIEF MVFR FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 081 059/080 058/084 059/085 061/082 059/081 059/083
4/T 53/T 32/T 33/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
LVM 084 051/079 049/083 049/084 051/079 050/079 050/080
4/T 53/T 23/T 33/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
HDN 085 059/082 058/085 059/087 059/084 059/083 059/085
5/T 64/T 32/T 33/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
MLS 085 060/082 060/085 060/086 061/084 060/082 061/085
5/T 74/T 33/T 33/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
4BQ 084 056/082 058/085 058/085 058/084 059/081 059/084
5/T 55/T 33/T 33/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
BHK 079 056/078 056/080 056/081 058/080 057/079 057/081
4/T 55/T 33/T 32/T 44/T 43/T 34/T
SHR 084 055/081 055/085 055/085 056/083 055/080 055/083
5/T 64/T 32/T 33/T 34/T 43/T 33/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

404 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

TODAY...THE NAM...GFS AND RAP MODELS MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS WRN AND SCNTL NEB TODAY WHICH SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70. SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WOULD ALLOW HIGHS
IN THE 70S. RAIN CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
ACROSS KS AND THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS... IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO ISOLATED
WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND
WEST OF KOGA.

THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER DRIED OUT TODAY AND THE RESULTING 750MB
CAPE HAS FALLEN OFF WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH K INDICES WELL BELOW
30C. THUS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. DEEP
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT SUGGEST MOSTLY SHRA ACTIVITY.

TONIGHT...
THE ONGOING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS
AND KS AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST THRU THE CNTL PLAINS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST A NRN PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN CONVECTION WHICH
COULD REACH UP INTO LINCOLN AND CUSTER COUNTIES BUT NOT MUCH
FURTHER. THE HRRR...THROUGH 20Z THIS AFTERNOON...IS SUGGESTING A
MORE EAST AND NORTH PUSH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH COULD PERHAPS SET
THE STAGE FOR A WETTER EVENING. THIS SOLN HAS BEEN SET ASIDE FOR
NOW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...THE COOLEST
NIGHT SO FAR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY FOCUSING
IN THE WEST EARLY. THE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION WITH
HEIGHTS ON THE RISE AS MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
BLOCKING PATTERN OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
POPS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
HOWEVER TIMING WILL BE A PROBLEM. FOR NOW LOW POPS CARRIED FORWARD
MONDAY AS THE SEMI STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ON THE HIGH
PLAINS AND REMAINS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN AS THE
BLOCK BREAKS DOWN AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TRENDING UP AND PEAKS THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK FRONT SPREADING INTO
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM WYOMING...COLORADO AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS WILL REACH AN OGA-LXN LINE BY 09Z AND COULD REACH IEN-MHN-LBF
BY 15Z. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN IN THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT
FROM THE EVENING MODEL RUN. FOR LBF...THE PROBABILITY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THE TWO AVAILABLE
STATISTICAL BULLETINS DIFFER WIDELY IN THE ACTUAL PROBABILITY. WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ONLY...IT IS REASONABLE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT
ALTOGETHER...BUT IT IS NOT UNREASONABLE TO INCLUDE SHOWERS IN THE
LBF TAF. AFTER 15Z WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW
3000 FEET AND VISIBILITY COULD BE LESS THAN 3SM AT TIMES IN THE
RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 3000
FEET. FOR RAIN...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION....CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1244 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH SMALL PRECIP CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK...WITH CEILINGS EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO NEAR 10KFT. MAY SEE A VCSH OR VCTS AROUND THE TERMINAL
DURING THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHOWERS NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT APPROACH KGRI...BUT WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...DID NOT MENTION A TEMPO OR
PREVAILING WX GROUP AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

337 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TAP FOR NEW MEXICO ONCE AGAIN TODAY...

SEVERAL VERY INTERESTING FEATURES AT PLAY TODAY WILL DEFINITELY MAKE
FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY THAN SATURDAY. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND CIRA
BLENDED PW LOOPS SHOW A DEEPLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE ENTRENCHED OVER
AZ AND NM. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTROID IS CLEARLY CENTERED OVER EL PASO.
A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEASTERN AZ IS SLIDING NE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE AN ENTIRELY SEPARATE
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STRETCHES FROM WESTERN AZ ENE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND SOUTHERN CO. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS BOTH
OF THESE AREAS ALL NIGHT.

THE 06Z AND LATEST HRRR HANDLE BOTH FEATURES VERY WELL. GUIDANCE ALSO
FALLS IN LINE WITH LATEST HPC QPF PROBABILITIES SO HAVE NUDGED POPS
UP QUITE A BIT TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS INDICATED BY THE 06Z NAM OVER
THE REGION ARE VERY LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONVECTION WILL
FIRE UP EARLY OVER WESTERN NM AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE VORT MAX LOOKS TO CROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MTS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE BURN SCARS WITHIN LINCOLN COUNTY. THE NORTH WILL
ALSO FIRE UP EARLY BUT CONTINUE LATER INTO THE EVENING AS STRONGER
UPPER DYNAMICS PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. SOME TRAINING
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
THE FARMINGTON AREA REALLY NEEDS THE RAIN AND TODAY SHOULD BE THE DAY.

THE DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WHERE MOISTURE RECYCLING WILL
BE MOST EFFICIENT. THE NE PLAINS WILL ALSO HAVE ELEVATED POPS AS A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SW INTO THE AREA. TUESDAY MAY
BE THE DRIEST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
DEWPOINT VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR NW PLATEAU
TO THE 40S OVER THE PLAINS.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OVER THE STATE AND STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 596DM BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE TEMPS BACK
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND REALLY FOCUS MOISTURE RECYCLING PROCESSES
IN AND IMMEDIATELY NEARBY THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW.
FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR BURN SCAR AREAS IN
THIS PATTERN. A STATIONARY PATTERN IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTION THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER WEST TX/
EASTERN NM AND A MOISTURE SURGE SLIDING NORTH OVER WESTERN NM. THIS
WILL BE A MUCH NEEDED WINDOW FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE GALLUP/FARMINGTON
AREA WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY PARCHED THIS SUMMER.

GUYER

.FIRE WEATHER...
WX PATTERN CHANGE BEGAN SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTED OVER TO
FAR N MEXICO WHICH IN TURN EASED OUR STORM STEERING FLOW FROM A
GENERALLY N TO S DIRECTION TO A MORE W TO E DIRECTION. THIS
WILL...MAINLY AFTER TODAY...BRING IN SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL OF COURSE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK SFC DEWPOINTS AND ALSO
CONVECTION. THIS STORM DOWNTURN WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO TUE AND MORE
THAN LIKELY WED AS WELL...IF NOT LONGER.

WHILE A LITTLE DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
LATER TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS REMAINING TO
TRIGGER A DECENT CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT BEST
CHANCES FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE NORTHERN MTNS AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE LESSER DEGREE THE SANDIAS SOUTHWARD TO THE
SACRAMENTOS AS WELL AS THE NE PLAINS WHERE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MAY
LINGER. WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY ALONG THE
CONTDVD AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/WESTERN EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTN BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SCOURED OUT SO MUCH THAT MIN RH VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT.
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTN.

DRYING TREND ACCELERATES MON WITH ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. WETTING RAIN STILL
IN CHANCE CATEGORY FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS EASTWARD TO THE TX
BORDER...THOUGH NEARLY ALL AREAS OF N AND CENTRAL NM TO SEE FURTHER
REDUCTIONS IN WETTING RAIN COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL TUE AS DRYING
TREND MAY REACH ITS PEAK. VENTILATION WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH MIN AND MAX RH VALUES TREND
DOWNWARD AFFECTING OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES MON AND TUE NIGHT...ESPEC IN
THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

STILL FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A TREND OF MOISTURE RETURNING
DURING THE LATTER HALF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF OLD MEXICO. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN WOULD APPEAR
TO BE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BEARING A
LITTLE MORE RESEMBLANCE TO A TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN...THOUGH
NOT AN ESPECIALLY STRONG ONE JUST YET.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED COVERAGE FORECAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR KLVS AND KTCC...OTHERWISE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. WESTERLIES ARE ON THE INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE STRONGER WINDS
THAN SATURDAY`S...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-28KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 86 64 91 62 / 60 30 5 5
DULCE........................... 81 52 84 51 / 70 30 10 5
CUBA............................ 82 53 86 54 / 50 30 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 82 58 85 56 / 30 20 10 5
EL MORRO........................ 76 53 80 52 / 40 20 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 81 58 86 57 / 50 20 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 79 56 83 55 / 40 20 10 5
GLENWOOD........................ 84 60 87 58 / 30 20 5 5
CHAMA........................... 71 49 75 49 / 60 40 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 78 58 82 58 / 40 30 10 10
PECOS........................... 74 57 79 57 / 60 30 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 77 53 79 53 / 50 40 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 68 46 71 47 / 60 50 30 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 45 75 44 / 60 50 20 20
TAOS............................ 80 52 83 52 / 40 30 10 10
MORA............................ 75 53 79 53 / 60 50 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 83 59 87 57 / 40 20 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 78 58 82 59 / 40 30 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 82 60 85 60 / 40 30 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 85 65 87 66 / 50 20 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 87 67 89 67 / 40 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 89 67 93 65 / 40 20 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 90 66 94 66 / 30 20 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 88 65 92 64 / 40 20 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 90 65 93 65 / 40 20 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 91 66 97 67 / 50 20 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 59 85 60 / 60 30 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 83 60 86 61 / 60 20 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 83 59 86 59 / 60 30 10 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 79 59 83 60 / 60 30 10 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 81 59 86 61 / 60 30 10 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 82 64 89 65 / 50 20 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 74 57 81 59 / 60 30 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 78 55 81 57 / 60 60 30 30
RATON........................... 83 57 86 58 / 60 50 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 84 57 87 58 / 60 50 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 80 57 84 57 / 60 40 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 86 63 87 65 / 30 50 20 20
ROY............................. 82 62 87 63 / 50 50 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 90 68 95 69 / 30 30 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 67 93 67 / 40 30 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 93 71 98 71 / 20 30 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 89 67 94 68 / 20 20 10 5
PORTALES........................ 89 67 94 68 / 20 20 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 89 69 95 69 / 30 20 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 91 71 98 71 / 20 20 10 5
PICACHO......................... 85 63 91 64 / 30 20 10 5
ELK............................. 77 60 82 61 / 50 30 20 5

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

129 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL
CANADIAN AIR. THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS MIMIC THE RUC 1-2 HR PROGS AND WILL CONTINUE
HIGH POPS IN THE WRN AND NRN MTS. THE LOWER SUSQ ALSO IN LINE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND OCCNL RUMBLES OF THUNDER. COLD FRONT IS NOT
MAKING TOO RAPID A MOVE THROUGH ERN OH. WEAK WAVE COMING UP FROM
WV WILL LIKELY SLOW IT TO A CRAWL AS HAS BEEN EXPECTED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUE CHC TO LIKLIHOOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE U50S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
12Z OPER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST MSTR AND INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD CREEPING SFC COLD FRONT
/WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.

BROAD SCALE UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPR JET ENTRANCE
REGION /WITH THE CORE OF THE 100 KT 300 MB SSW-NNE JET LOCATED OVER
WRN NEW YORK AT 18Z SUNDAY/ WILL COMBINE WITH A MDTLY STG AND
COMPACT SPEED MAX HEADING NORTH UP THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND TWD
THE SUSQ VALLEY...WILL BRING ANOTHER FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED TSRA TO MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL 0.50
INCH AMTS AREA LIKELY ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING
THE DAY...WHILE A GRADIENT TO LIGHTER AMTS WILL OCCUR FURTHER WEST.
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES WHERE A FEW
TRAINING TSRA OCCUR.

MAXES SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW TO SVRL DEG F COOLER THAN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT POST-FRONTAL DRYING WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACRS THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE APPLCHNS INTO THE PIEDMONT SUN NGT INTO MON. 12Z
MODELS INDICATE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
LEE OF THE APPLCHNS LATE SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND ENHANCED RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NW MTNS UNDER COOL POCKET ALOFT.
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10-12 DEGREES BELOW LATE JULY
CLIMO MAXES.

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW AN ACTIVE AND
BROADENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BY MID WEEK. A ZONAL PATTER WILL FOLLOW
WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR/DRY WEATHER TUE-
WED WITH A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HEAT/HUMIDITY ON THE HORIZON.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL TSRA
OVERNIGHT IS LOW. AS OF 03Z...MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING EITHER VFR
OR MVFR. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ASCENDING THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN PA MAY RESULT IN IFR CIGS AT BFD LATER
TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE SIMILAR
UPSLOPE-INDUCED LOW CIGS AT JST TOWARD DAWN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
NOT AS HIGH AS FOR BFD.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AS BLYR COOLS/MOISTENS.
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST NOTED IN SATL IMAGERY ACROSS
WESTERN PA AT 03Z. IF THOSE BREAKS PERSIST...RADIATIONAL COOLING
COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A BRIEF DIP TO IFR VSBYS NR DAWN IN
THE RIDGE VALLEY REGION FROM AOO NE THRU UNV AND IPT.

THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE W MTNS BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TO CLEAR THE
EASTERN AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. ANY EARLY LOW CIGS/FOG
SHOULD LIFT BY LATE AM WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS LIKELY BY AFTN.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF PM
TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT OVR EASTERN PA...WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT MDT OR LNS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...PATCHY PRE-DAWN FOG POSSIBLE.
TUE...AM FOG POSSIBLE NW MTNS.
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...AM LOW CIGS POSS CENTRAL MTNS. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...
LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM SATURDAY`S SHRA/TSRA
MIGHT BECOME A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL HAPPEN...BUT THE LATEST AVAILABLE
RAP13 AND HRRR RUNS BOTH INDICATE THEIR FORMATION BEFORE SUNRISE. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP TOO. STILL THINK THE AREA WILL SEE SOME
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT AS
MUCH ACTIVITY AS WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING GENERALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AROUND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. MODELS ALL
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY
PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN PLACE
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013/

DISCUSSION...
BKN THIN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM ROUGHLY MOSS HILL-HOUSTON-EAGLE LAKES. SUSPECT THIS WILL
PROBABLY KEEP GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS SOME
PERIODS OF ENHANCEMENT BETWEEN I-10 & THE COAST WHERE A GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENT ZONE & HEATING CONTINUES. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A SLOW MOVING CELL THROW DOWN A VERY LOCALIZED FEW INCHES OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.

EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT
PROBABLY FLARE BACK UP AFTER 2 AM NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST.
REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH BACK NORTH AND WASH OUT THRU
THE DAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF MENTIONABLE POPS
AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND IF NOT LONGER. UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE
BACK CONTROL AND PERSIST THRU THE WEEK. THICKNESS VALUES DO RISE A
TOUCH BUT LLVL FLOW SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH VERSUS THE
HOTTER SW. KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID/LONG
RANGE PERIOD BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A JACKET... 47

MARINE...
THE WINDS OFF THE COAST MAY PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE COAST FROM THE NORTHWEST THE
WIND SPEEDS WILL MORE LIKELY DIMINISH A BIT. DO EXPECT THE WINDS TO
STAY BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NAM12 SOUNDING FORECASTS ALONG THE COAST INDICATE THAT ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN END TO ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVERHEAD...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST
OF THE WEEK. 40

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 95 76 97 76 / 10 20 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 94 77 95 77 / 20 30 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 90 81 90 81 / 40 30 10 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

426 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE ERIE TO CENTRAL TENNESSEE. SURFACE
DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BEHIND THE FRONT.
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WAS
JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE OVER THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY
18Z/2PM AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z/8PM. STILL
POSSIBLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT LOCALIZED.

MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AFTER SOME
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING...HAVE
MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA CLEARING OUT BY MORNING.

PIEDMONT WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MUCH OF THE DAY AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE 80S FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV
NUMBERS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND WEAKEN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL FLATTEN RESULTING IN A FASTER MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR OUR REGION.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR AREA PROVIDING A COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
TRY AND SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. IN GENERAL...LEANED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE ADJMAVBC DURING
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL MODERATE TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ALTHOUGH THE OP GFS HAS BACKED OFF...THE GEFS AND ECMWF RATHER
BULLISH WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND POSSIBLY EVEN
AN INSITU WEDGE FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH SURFACE WINDS STILL SHOWING SOME
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...HESITANT TO GO AS COLD AS AN IN SITU WEDGE
WOULD SUGGEST. HOWEVER...FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO GO COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE/HPC AT THIS TIME AND PLACE TEMPS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
2M TEMPS AND ECMWF MOS. AN IN SITU WEDGE AND ALL DAY RAIN COULD
EASILY KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. ONCE THAT
SYSTEM DEPARTS...DEVELOPING REX BLOCK IN THE PAC NW WILL FORCE A
SLICE OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER RIDGE AND +20C H85 AIR TO DART INTO
OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS...EXPECTING ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO END THE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ALTHOUGH THICK CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE...PLENTIFUL RAIN AND ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT
BCB/LWB/ROA EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR BLF AND BCB.

A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL REACH BLF AND LWB AROUND
09Z/5AM...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING IS LOW.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...
AND WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...AND INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT A RETURN OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AND
AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE WEST.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES EAST WITH MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN THAT WILL BE LOCALIZED.

WILL KEEP CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH VALID UNTIL 6AM. ONCE THE FRONT
CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION WHERE THERE HAS BEEN RECENT FLOODING
AND THE GROUND IS COMPLETELY SATURATED...THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
BE GREATLY REDUCED AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELED.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ015-
016.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/KM
HYDROLOGY...AMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

151 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING THE REGION
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
WITH FRONT TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS
ELECTED TO EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WHERE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OCCURRED. LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT SEVERAL WATER RESCUES HAD TAKEN
PLACE IN WESTERN WILKES COUNTY NEAR PARSONVILLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH VERY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER WET GROUND...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING...MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH IN
TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE. MORE UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING....

AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MORE UNSTABLE SOUPY AIR IS BEING FORCED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE MOUNTAINS...SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STUCK
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN NW NC ATTM. WATER PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT AGAIN THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MOST UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS
IS SHOVED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST.

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ON SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BEST ENERGY AND ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION LOOKS AT THIS
POINT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE TRENDS TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED FOR
TOMORROW. FOR NOW...NONE WILL BE ISSUED. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST
IN THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN WHERE THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND WEAKEN. TROUGH AMPLITUDE WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. IN ITS WAKE...FASTER MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME
MAY DELIVER A TIGHT DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL SPREAD RAIN AT LEAST
ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST AND SW TUESDAY NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD GIVE US AN OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT
BEFORE THAT OCCURS. COULD SEE SHOWERS/POPS HOLDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE AND PIEDMONT A LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST SUNDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH OF DECENT STRENGTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
50S MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEND THE COLDEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INTO
THE UPPER 40S ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY HIGH
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR DECOUPLING TO OCCUR.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...
AND WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES EAST WITH MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO MIDNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
MOVING OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAIN TODAY. HAVE ALSO
ADDED GILES AND BLAND COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. RADAR INDICATES THAT
MOST OF THE WATCH AREA RECEIVED BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES OF RAIN.
AN QUICK INCH OR TWO OF RAIN FROM ONE OF THE HEAVIER CELLS COULD
PROMPT ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING TODAY.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...KK/KM
SHORT TERM...DS/KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/KM
HYDROLOGY...DS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

241 AM PDT Sun Jul 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooling trend back to normal is in progress over the Inland
Northwest. Mainly dry weather is expected through Monday with a
few thunderstorms confined to the mountains. Tuesday through
Saturday will be a more active thunderstorm pattern with showers
and thunderstorms becoming common...and progressively wetter over
the region by the end of the week.

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday...Most of the Inland Northwest is expected
to be dry through Tuesday with seasonal temperatures. There is one
exception however and that is over the mountains near the Canadian
border. For today there is a weak wave that drops south near the
Canadian border with increasing mid level moisture over the
northern mountains...along with an increase in both surface and
mid level instability. The GFS, NAM, ECMWF, and HRRR show
convection developing after 18z (11 am) initially over the Pasayten
Wilderness area, with isolated thunderstorms expanding south into
the mountains around Lake Chelan, and possibly the Okanogan
Highlands and North Idaho Panhandle mountains after 2 pm. There
has been concern with the dry fuels for new fire starts which
remains valid. Good news is that storms will be slow moving and
soundings show that some rain should accompany these storms.
Monday looks like a near repeat with afternoon/evening convection
over the northern mountains. On Tuesday the flow begins to back to
the southwest ahead of a closed low along 130W. Instability once
again lingers over the northern mountains while mid level moisture
begins to increase towards the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie
where a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

With no strong waves expected through Tuesday...lightning is
expected to be generally isolated in nature over the northern
mountains and thus no fire weather highlights are expected at this
time.

Areas of smoke or haze is expected this morning in the Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse from wildfires burning around
Goldendale, and south of Wenatchee. JW

Tues Nt through Fri Nt: With the pattern of a stationary upper
trough just off the Pac Nw coast, the region will be at the mercy
of vort maxes ejecting NE into Wa and Oregon. One such wave will
eject Tues Nt, another Wed, followed by a smaller- scale feature
Thurs. All of these occluding waves will consolidate, at least
according to the GFS and ECMWF, into a broad west-to-east
deformation axis along the Nrn periphery of the slowly weakening
upper low. What really stands out in the model guidance is the
lack of meaningful pcpn generated with the first couple ejecting
short- waves. Like the current air-mass, fcst soundings still show
a deep dry layer below about 700mb that will initially inhibit the
potential for heavier pcpn. The time frame between this "dry"
thunder threat and the significantly wetter thunder potential Thurs
Nt and Fri will pose the greatest risk of generating new fire
starts from lightning. Convective wind gusts with these dry
thunderstorms may then help to spread new starts or harass
existing ones. The big question and fcst challenge is determining
where the west- to-east deformation axis mentioned above develops.
There is decent agreement that a nearly stationary band of heavier
widespread pcpn will develop then stall over central or Nrn Wa.
This could be very beneficial for the existing wildfires, but may
produce an increased possibility of heavy runoff for any burn
scars along the East Slopes of the Cascades. bz

Saturday through Sunday night...The upper trough will have pushed
off to the east by this time, but another is poised to make its
way across the Inland Northwest by late in the weekend or early
next week. Any potential shortwave that rotates around the trough
would likely trigger additional precipitation development,
especially with a moist air-mass in place and ample instability
available. The temperatures will begin a slow recovery toward
normal, but most areas will likely be a degree or two just below.
ty

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...Still the only obscuration of concern through 06Z Monday
will be some haze from wildfires in the region. MVFR vis will be
possible at times at KPUW due to the smoke, but vis should improve
through the morning as inversions break. /Pelatti

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 85 55 86 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
Coeur d`Alene 83 53 84 55 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 10 30
Pullman 82 44 84 49 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
Lewiston 91 58 92 61 93 63 / 0 0 0 10 10 30
Colville 88 52 87 52 88 54 / 10 10 10 10 10 20
Sandpoint 81 48 80 50 82 51 / 0 10 10 10 10 20
Kellogg 81 53 82 53 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
Moses Lake 89 57 90 61 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
Wenatchee 87 62 88 65 89 66 / 0 0 0 10 10 30
Omak 88 59 88 60 90 60 / 10 10 10 10 10 30

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

344 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION AND IS THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE 500MB HEIGHT FIELD WAS JUST OVER A -4 ANOMALY OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 06Z TONIGHT WITH A -3 850 MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY. CLEARLY...THIS IS WHY WE SAW RECORD COOL HIGHS BROKEN
SATURDAY. THE RAIN HELPED TOO. A VERY TIGHT AND DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS LOCATED
OVER THE SRN LAKE MICHIGAN BASIN AT 08Z. SOME SUBSIDENCE WAS SHOWN
IN THE GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY VIA DRYING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND IT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WIND SHIFT AND TROUGH FROM
KGRB-KDBQ...WHILE RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH.

THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND TROWAL FEATURE FOR THIS DEEP CYCLONE
ARE NOW ROTATING WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND OFFER THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE U.P. AND WI. THIS IS THE WEATHER
THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT 08Z AND HAS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE THE MOIST TONGUE THAT
CONTAINS 9C 850MB DEWPOINTS. THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE MOIST SURGE
THAT IS ISENTROPICALLY LIFTING UP THE THETA/THETAE SURFACES
FLOWING SOUTHWARD. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TOO ROTATE THIS
RAINFALL SOUTHWARD INTO NERN WI. THE 28.00Z HI RES NMM AND ARW
MODELS...AND HRRR RUNS ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN BRUSHING THE NORTHCENTRAL
WI AREAS AND THUS HAVE MADE A SLIGHT BUMP THERE TO THE RAIN CHANCES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE EAST...MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL. HAVE LEFT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE FORCING...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER WEST.

OVERALL.. THE AREA WILL START TO RAPIDLY STABILIZE BY MID-AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING...WITH THE SHOWER CHANCES/COVERAGE BEST THIS MORNING
AND THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF HEATING EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS UNDER WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY INCREASES TO -2 BY THIS EVENING...THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME RECORD COOL HIGHS AGAIN TODAY WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE.

TONIGHT...HAVE SLOWED THE CLOUD TRENDS EASTWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT AS
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM 800-900MB RH THAT
MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN CYCLONIC FLOW. HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING SO
CLEARING WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE...BUT WAS CONSERVATIVE THERE.

VALLEY FOG...HAVE PERKED UP THE IDEA OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AS THE
WINDS REALLY DROP OFF THROUGH 2 KMS /BELOW 10KTS/ TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. COOLER HIGHS ON SUNDAY...DEEP LIGHT WINDS...
RECENT RAIN...AND CLEARING SKIES ALL POINT TOWARD FOG. THE BIG
NEGATIVE IS THE SKY CLEARING. IF IT CLEARS EARLY EVENING...RIVER
VALLEY FOG MAY BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED THIS
INTO THE FORECAST. NAM/GFS MOS DO NOT HAVE FOG AT KLSE...NOT SURE
WHY THERE ISNT A SNIFF OF FOG AT LEAST INDICATED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH SYSTEMS MOVING TO THE
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ONLY GLANCING BLOWS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO NORMALIZE AND HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE.

THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD DEVELOPING CONSENSUS OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
LONG WAVE...DEEP TROUGHING OVER HUDSONS BAY...LEAVING THE REGION
IN A NWRLY FLOW REGIME WITH PERIODIC WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST
TRANSITION SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
GROWING ON RAIN AND THUNDER OCCURRING. IT APPEARS THE WIND SHEAR
AND CAPE WILL BE MODERATE...YIELDING A SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE. THAT
WOULD BEGIN A BETTER WIND SHEAR PERIOD WHERE SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WOULD DEPEND MORE ON DEVELOPING CAPE AS THE AREA IS WITHIN
THE ESTABLISHED NWRLY FLOW. FRIDAY MAY BE THAT NEXT CHANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE SHORT TROUGH ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE LOW HAS SLIPPED INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME NON-VISIBILITY REDUCING
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. KARX RADAR INDICATES MOST OF THIS IS OR
WILL SHORTLY BE SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A
VCSH. MVFR CEILINGS UNDER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUE TO MAKE
SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND STILL EXPECT THESE TO SPREAD OVER BOTH
TAF SITES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THESE SHOULD LIFT TO VFR SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME WEAK HEATING AND MIXING GETS GOING. AS THE WHOLE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SETTING THE STAGE FOR CLEARING.
THE 28.00Z NAM IS NOW SLOWER WITH THE CLEARING THAN THE 27.18Z RUN
AND KEEPS THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD
SEE KRST SCATTERING OUT SUNDAY EVENING BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE.
&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

AUSTIN MN 63 IN 1991
ROCHESTER MN 63 IN 1991
CHARLES CITY IA 69 IN 1981
DECORAH IA 69 IN 1962
MEDFORD WI 61 IN 1944
LA CROSSE WI 66 IN 1991
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI 68 IN 1981
SPARTA WI 70 IN 1971

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

1037 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS ASSOCD WITH WEAK LOW/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
HAVE LIFTED N INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATING DEVELOPING SUNSHINE ACROSS CENTRAL MA AND NE CT AND
EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND EWD WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO PTSUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING
DEVELOPS. FURTHER W ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES...THERE
IS MORE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WHICH SUGGESTS MOCLDY SKIES HERE.

BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS W ZONES WHICH
IS CLOSEST TO DEEPER MOISTURE. FURTHER E...THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL WITH CAPES FORECAST BELOW 1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE UNFAVORABLE. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW 30
KT ACROSS W NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.

WARMEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ACROSS NE CT...RI AND SE
MA WHERE DEVELOPING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE
LOW/MID 80S...AND RATHER HUMID SE NEW ENG WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70. COOLER 70S NE COASTAL MA AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE LOW WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY LATE MORNING. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS FOR JULY WEST OF OUR CWA...BUT THE
BEST DYNAMICAL LIFT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NW AND N OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DURING THIS AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED FORCING TO
TAP INTO INSTABILITY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHEST POPS OVER CT RIVER VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT... HIGH CHANCE POP IN PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER JET FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO FOR TONIGHT AN ITEM OF CONCERN IS THAT RAP AND NAM
INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKING NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS...APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AS OF 0830Z. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT LATCHING ONTO
THIS FEATURE BUT THIS MAY BE ANOTHER ITEM TO MONITOR FOR THE 12Z
MODEL RUN. AS MENTIONED...CHANCE POPS IN PLACE.

DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL GIVE A MUGGY FEEL TO THE
AIR AND LIKELY CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF FOG.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRIER/LESS HUMID AND COOLER MON NGT THRU WED
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AT TIMES THU-SAT WITH RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

SENSIBLE WEATHER...

LOOKING AT A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START AND POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BECOME LESS HUMID FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1030 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL WEATHER THEME BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

THIS MORNING...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG ACROSS TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY
MIDDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR PREVAILING AT TERMINALS EXCEPT CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SUN NIGHT...EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS
DEVELOPING IN AREAS OF FOG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
BE PREVALENT EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN VFR. CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...VFR LIKELY. LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM.

TUE AND WED...VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

THU...VFR LIKELY WITH A LOW RISK OF SHRA.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE LOW SHOULD PASS NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST...WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...OTHER THAN LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS FROM TSTMS EARLY
THIS MORNING ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT WIND AND/OR WAVES-SWELLS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

MON...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE.

TUE AND WED...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH WEAK PRES OVER THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

THU...WEAK LOW PRES MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/NMB
NEAR TERM...KJC/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/NMB
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/NMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

658 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK LOW/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER RI
SOUND. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE CONFINED
TO THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AND REMAIN PROGRESSIVE MOVING
NORTHEAST. AS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND EXITS THE REGION SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP YIELDING A WARM AND MUGGY AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. UPSTREAM MOISTURE PLUME OVER
EASTERN PA AND NY STATE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
MERIDIONAL FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE DETAILS NICELY SO LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

################################################################

445 AM UPDATE... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR INDICATING A LARGE
MCS BRUSHING OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. COLD TOPS AS LOW AS -70C OVERNIGHT WITH THE MCS BASED ON
IR IMAGERY. BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF RADAR RETURNS...LIGHTNING
RETURNS...AND LATEST RAP/NAM MODELS...HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...FALLING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND BEYOND. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS HIGHEST CG FREQUENCY WILL PASS
E OF ACK.

DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL GIVE A MUGGY FEEL TO THE
AIR AND LIKELY CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF FOG.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRIER/LESS HUMID AND COOLER MON NGT THRU WED
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AT TIMES THU-SAT WITH RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

SENSIBLE WEATHER...

LOOKING AT A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START AND POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BECOME LESS HUMID FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL WEATHER THEME BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR PREVAILING AT TERMINALS EXCEPT CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SUN NIGHT...EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS
DEVELOPING IN AREAS OF FOG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN VFR. CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...VFR LIKELY. LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM.

TUE AND WED...VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

THU...VFR LIKELY WITH A LOW RISK OF SHRA.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE LOW SHOULD PASS NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST...WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...OTHER THAN LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS FROM TSTMS EARLY
THIS MORNING ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT WIND AND/OR WAVES-SWELLS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

MON...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE.

TUE AND WED...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH WEAK PRES OVER THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

THU...WEAK LOW PRES MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/NMB
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/NMB
MARINE...NOCERA/NMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

920 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...
DO NOT HAVE ANY STRONG REASONING TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT REMAINING NEAR TWO INCHES WITH
VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
ERRATIC MOVEMENT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE SOUNDING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MOST
UNSTABLE LAYER BEING THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

KOB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE EAST
COAST SITES. A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE SW ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS NOW JUST TO OUR NORTH. SIMILAR FEATURES ARE ALSO
PRESENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS BUT THIS TIME THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS
RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH WELL
INTO THE GULF AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. AT MID AND HIGH
LEVELS THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES THAT HAVE RESULTED IN ABOVE NORMAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA BY AS MUCH AS 20% PER BLENDED TPW SATELLITE
BASED PRODUCT.

FOR THE SHORT RANGE...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS AND ATMOSPHERIC
TRENDS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SE TODAY WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF AND THE STRAITS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SOME
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TOO. MOISTURE LEVELS AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN TODAY WHEN
COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES AND SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORM MOTION VECTORS FROM AMONG WIDE RANGE
OF MODELS IS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST BUT LESS THAN 3 KNOTS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL FEATURES ABOVE WILL MEAN PATTERN WILL
FAVOR INTERIOR AND EAST COAST AS IT DID SATURDAY BUT GIVEN WEAK
STORM MOTION WE WILL STILL BE AT THE MERCY OF OUTFLOW, LAKE, AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

BY MONDAY LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA FARTHER PUSHING TROUGH
TO OUR NORTH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE WAY NORTH OF
THE AREA BY THEN. DESPITE THAT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR
ABOVE NORMAL AS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. THIS TIME PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO ONE FAVORING
ACTIVITY ACROSS INTERIOR AND WEST COAST IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A CHANCE ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
STORM VECTORS WILL NOW BE SE BUT STILL LESS THAN 5 KNOTS SO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES, LAKE BREEZES, AND SEA BREEZES WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE
ROLE DETERMINING WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND/OR GO.

GIVEN MOISTURE LEVELS...MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (DUE TO MOISTURE LEVELS AND SLOW
STORM MOTION), FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS IN THAT ORDER.

FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF
ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST COAST...AND THEN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RAIN CHANCES
MAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE EAST COAST BUT THE SCENARIO REMAINS
RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN DIVERGENCE AMONG GLOBAL MODELS.

AS FOR THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...THE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME CONTINUES
TO BE THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH AS A WAVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOCAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE THIS OUTLOOK CHANGES GOING
FORWARD.

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE TODAY
AND SOUTHERLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND REGIME BY EARLY IN THE WEEK.
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOTS RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS OFF MIAMI
DADE AND THE SOUTHERN AND OFF SHORE WATERS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES. WITH THIS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO THE 2 TO
4 FEET RANGE AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FEET.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 89 78 / 50 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 89 79 / 50 20 30 20
MIAMI 89 78 90 79 / 50 20 30 20
NAPLES 89 75 92 76 / 30 20 30 20

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

853 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...12Z BOI RAOB WAS 2-3C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT ALL
LEVELS SO TODAY WILL FINALLY BRING TEMPS DOWN TO NORMAL. AT 8 AM
MDT KCBX RADAR STILL SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
SRN MALHEUR COUNTY AND MOST OF OWYHEE COUNTY... MOVING DUE EAST.
MOST OF THE PCPN WAS ALOFT PER THE LOW-LEVEL DRYNESS INDICATED IN
THE BOI RAOB. NAM AND HRRR MODELS END SHOWERS/STORMS IN MALHEUR
COUNTY AROUND NOON BUT KEEP THEM GOING ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONLY IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT FROM MONSOON MOISTURE BUT RATHER FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR WILL COME IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...AND MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORMAL TEMPS. NO
UPDATES.

.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH
OF THE SNAKE BASIN SHIFTING DUE EAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE REST OF
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON
...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL WILL BE WESTERLY AT 20 KTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
HARNEY COUNTY THROUGH 2 AM PDT FIZZLED OVER SOUTH MALHEUR COUNTY
BY 3 AM PDT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE NV BORDER THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER IMPULSE OVER SW OREGON AT 315 AM PDT WILL EXIT SOUTHERN
TWIN FALLS COUNTY AROUND 3 PM MDT BUT WILL CROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN
EARLY TODAY SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NV
BORDER THIS MORNING AS WELL. STORMS FORMED FURTHER WEST THAN
EXPECTED AND MAY OVERACHIEVE OFF THE SIERRA NEVADA AGAIN TODAY.
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH /QUITE WIMPY COMPARED TO THE ONE COMING
MID WEEK/ IS STILL ON TRACK TO BRING NOT QUITE AS HOT TEMPERATURES
...TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. TODAY/S TROUGH IS ALSO QUITE DRY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PER PW PERCENTILES...SO STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING STILL SUPPORTS SHAVING A COUPLE DEGREES OFF MOS LOWS
TONIGHT. MIXING WILL BRING AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 MPH
AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT NEAR THE NV
BORDER IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP AND WILL PEAK NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
LAST WEEK OF JULY IS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR IN
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...SO THE COOLDOWN LATER
IN THE WEEK WILL TAKE SOME OF THE BITE AWAY FROM THE DOG DAYS OF
SUMMER THIS YEAR. THE COOLDOWN LOOKS BRIEF WITH A WARMING TREND
BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....LC
PRE VSHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1021 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

COOL CANADIAN AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEGIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
RETURN TO SUMMER IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS WARMER AIR BEGINS
TO ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

UPDATE FOCUSES ON SKY TRENDS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED AROUND 16-17Z. WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE CAPITAL CITY IN LINE
WITH HRRR TRENDS...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION WITH STRUGGLING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING. WITH SOME SKY COVER ALREADY
MOVING INTO NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...DID TRIM HIGH TEMPS BACK JUST
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

WHILE DRY WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...AM
CONCERNED THAT PRECIPITATION FROM AN UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MAY REACH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE GL REGION. MODELS...MOST NOTABLY THE GFS ARE SHOWING
PRECIP REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR...WHILE THE NAM IS
KEEPING IT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO LOOK
TOO DRY TO ALLOW THE FAR REACHES OF THIS PRECIP TO REACH THE AREA
AND THE SURFACE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR THE LAST
24 HRS. IF ANY SHOWERS DO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA IT WOULD BE
OVER THE NE COUNTIES...CLOSEST TO THE LOW. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...HOWEVER WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REACH THE
GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT THIS HOUR...SO WOULD
PREFER NOT TO RULE ANY CHANCES OUT. HAVE THEREFORE OPTED TO INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS FOR THE NE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS NOT A DRAMATIC DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT IS
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT DEVIATES FROM THE COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SECOND CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
IS TEMPS. BELIEVE MOS IS ON THE LOW SIDE CONSIDERING THE MODERATE
W/SW FLOW FORECAST. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR HIGHS RANGING 72
TO 78.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

MAIN CHANGE THIS PERIOD WAS TO REINTRODUCE POPS ACROSS THE WRN
COUNTIES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BELOW THE 80 MARK AND LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT...THEN 60S THE NEXT
TWO NIGHTS. KIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BREAK ANY LOWS OR RECORD LOW
MAXIMUMS.

MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING CENTRAL
INDIANA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST
MOISTURE LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLUMN ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES WILL BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLE ALLOW POPS HERE BY MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF STILL CANNOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION/TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM SO THOUGHT ALLBLEND BROADBRUSH OF CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND HOLDING ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A
GOOD REPRESENTATION OF THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
THURSDAY AND DRIES OUT THE COLUMN KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AND THEN DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS FAVORING SATURDAY
AND THE ECMWF SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL UNDER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND
ALLBLEND CAPTURED THIS WELL.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR WILL CONTINUE.

ONGOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. ALONG WITH
AN INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS THAT SHOULD CAP ANY CU DEVELOPMENT.

WITH CU RULE VALUES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXPECT SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS MAX HEATING IS REACHED. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE DAY. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BE AROUND 4-5KFT. THIS COULD ALSO PROMPT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AT KLAF FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BUT DON/T EXPECT TO
SEE AN IMPACT ON FLYING CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME THINK ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REST OF THE SITES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 18-20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE SO THINK THIS COULD LEAD
TO LOWER VISIBILITIES. FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE MVFR LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

953 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

855 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL...THEREFORE NO
CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE. THE INHERITED MAX TEMP HAS ME
NERVOUS...BUT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM
UP...ESPECIALLY WITH WARMER START TO THE DAY. PRECIP POTENTIAL
LOOKS ON TRACK AS WELL...SO NO CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING. AAG

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

GOOD MIXING ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED THE GOING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD FOR MON AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARED ON TRACK. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS HAVE CHANGED IT UP A LITTLE BIT ON THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT
THE OVERALL FEEL IS THE SAME. THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS QUITE
UNSETTLED WITH MANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THE ECMWF POINTS TO THE UNSETTLED PATTERN SHUTTING OFF SUNDAY AS
THE STRONG SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE BUILDS NORTH. THE GFS HAS THE
SAME IDEA...JUST NOT AS AGGRESSIVE ON BUILDING HEIGHTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS DUE TO LOW HEIGHTS...LOW LEVEL EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND...AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORM. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOOLEY

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

614 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

LOCAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS SWRN NEB SHOULD LIFT TO VFR 16Z-18Z.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH AND
WEST ALONG I-80 OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN ACROSS WRN/SWRN NEB
INCLUDING KLBF. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND PULL MOISTURE UP THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE NAM MODEL IS SUGGESTING IFR CIGS WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS MVFR. FOR NOW ITS BEST TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND FCST MVFR CIGS
AS THE NAM IS KNOWN TO COME IN TOO LOW.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

724 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...
AFTER REVIEWING THE 12Z KABQ SOUNDING AND VARIOUS OTHER MODEL
PARAMETERS HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR
BASICALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES ARE
ABOUT AS HIGH AS THEY EVER GET AROUND CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS ESSENTIALLY SATURATED AND OUR PWAT
VALUE OF 1.27 THIS MORNING IS WELL WITHIN FLASH FLOOD TERRITORY.
INSTABILITY IS ABUNDANT AND OUR CONVECTIVE TEMP IS QUITE LOW SO
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE EARLY THEN SPREAD SLOWLY EAST NEAR 10MPH.
A WELL DEFINED GRADIENT OF DRIER AIR AND A COUPLE ASSCD SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY LATE DAY.
PREVIOUS RESEARCH STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THIS IS A PARTICULARLY IDEAL
SET UP FOR FLASH FLOOD EVENTS ACROSS NM. BASED ON THE 06Z NAM AND
THE 10Z HRRR NOT ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLOODING IN
THE WATCH AREA HOWEVER IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT FAVORED
LOCALES SO THIS WATCH IS LARGE.

GUYER

.PREV DISCUSSION...555 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS OUTSIDE
OF SHRA AND TSRA. STRONGER TSRA WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRODUCING VERY LOCALIZED IFR
CIGS AND VSBY. PEAK WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY COULD
REACH 40 TO 55 KT. IN ADDITION...AT LEAST PARTIAL MT OBSCURATIONS
TO BE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY. GREATEST TSRA
COVERAGE MOST LIKELY TO BE ACROSS N MTS AND PERHAPS THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE. THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE AND
OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TAP FOR NEW MEXICO ONCE AGAIN TODAY...

GUYER

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>529.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

555 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS OUTSIDE
OF SHRA AND TSRA. STRONGER TSRA WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRODUCING VERY LOCALIZED IFR
CIGS AND VSBY. PEAK WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY COULD
REACH 40 TO 55 KT. IN ADDITION...AT LEAST PARTIAL MT OBSCURATIONS
TO BE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY. GREATEST TSRA
COVERAGE MOST LIKELY TO BE ACROSS N MTS AND PERHAPS THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE. THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE AND
OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TAP FOR NEW MEXICO ONCE AGAIN TODAY...

GUYER

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

907 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF H7-H5 CLOUDS
NOW ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MONTANA...FROM GLASGOW SOUTH
TO MILES CITY...AND MOVING EAST WITH TIME. WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SUPPORTING THE PRECIPITATION AREAS AS THEY
MOVE CLOSER TO OUR WESTERN BORDER THIS MORNING. H7-H5 RIDGE AXIS
NOW LOCATED FROM ESTEVAN SOUTH TO DICKINSON. THIS WILL SHIFT TO
AROUND SHERWOOD SOUTH TO BISMARCK BY 00Z MONDAY. STILL ON TRACK FOR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CENTRAL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS JUST EDGING OVER OUR WESTERN
BORDER BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY...WHICH IS WHAT THE CURRENT
FORECAST ENTAILS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
CAP FOR KISN/KDIK THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE BEST
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY WEST OF WILLISTON AND
DICKINSON. BETTER FORCING OCCURS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF JET STREAKS ENHANCING LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BETTER SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS UPWARD ACROSS THE WEST A BIT BASED
ON CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY...LITTLE IF ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS THIS MORNING WAS THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND CONTINUED TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST. RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH HAS CAUSED AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

MORNING TEMPERATURES AS OF THIS WRITING WERE VERY COOL...MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S.
WILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES BY THE
TIME THE ENERGY BALANCE OF HEAT LOSS VERSUS HEAT GAIN IS REACHED
WITHIN AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE.

WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE EAST HALF WILL FORECAST SUNNY / CLEAR.
IN THE WEST...LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA
ROCKIES. IT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST...REACHING THE DAKOTAS BORDER
AFTER NIGHTFALL TONIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL NOT BE ADVECTING IN ANY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR THAN WHAT IS
ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN DEW POINTS RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE 50. SO...ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE ONLY
SLOWLY DOING SO. AND...THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THAT
WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. FOR THOSE REASONS...HAVE CONFINED STORM
CHANCES TO THE MONTANA BORDER COUNTIES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THEY SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS AS MID LEVEL
SUPPORT INCREASES.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THE RISK IS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS AT THE WORST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM EITHER ALOFT OR NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WITH MODELS PROJECTING
SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE REGION.

ONGOING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WEST INTO CENTRAL WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST AND A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS PREVENTING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE SFC TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL S/WV MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WILL SEE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER FOR TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ALONG WITH
A LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER THIS PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER...MODELS FORECAST A RETURN TO A
QUIETER WEATHER PERIOD LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REDEVELOPING. AFTERWARDS MODELS DIVERGE
REGARDING THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SO WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST
CONSISTENCY FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

PATCHY MORNING FOG OBSERVED AT KJMS...SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO MINNESOTA TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING
BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA
ROCKIES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN MONTANA AND COULD MOVE
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 28/17Z. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD AFTER 29/00Z FOR KISN-KDIK...POSSIBLY
REACHING A KMOT-KBIS LINE AFTER 29/06Z.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JPM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

619 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE ERIE TO CENTRAL TENNESSEE. SURFACE
DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THAT WAS JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED. THE TREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN HAS DIMINISHED.

MUCH DRIER AIR REACHES THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AFTER SOME
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING...HAVE
MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA CLEARING OUT BY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...
AND WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES EAST WITH MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/KM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

445 AM PDT Sun Jul 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooling trend back to normal is in progress over the Inland
Northwest. Mainly dry weather is expected through Tuesday with a
few thunderstorms confined to the mountains. Wednesday through
Saturday will be a more active thunderstorm pattern with showers
and thunderstorms becoming common...and progressively wetter over
the region by the end of the week.

.DISCUSSION...

With no strong waves expected through Tuesday...lightning is
expected to be generally isolated in nature over the northern
mountains and thus no fire weather highlights are expected at this
time.

Areas of smoke or haze is expected this morning in the Columbia
Basin, Spokane area, and Palouse from wildfires burning around
Goldendale, and south of Wenatchee. JW

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR conditions is expected to continue at all TAF sites
through 12z Monday with terrain driven winds. Wildfire smoke will
continue across the area and could briefly lower visibilities around
KMWH/KPUW but smoke should stay mostly aloft and not impact surface
conditions. North of the TAF sites...close to the Canadian border
afternoon cumulus buildups are expected with a few showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as the atmosphere
destabilizes. JW

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

602 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION AND IS THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

ANOTHER DAY OF CHILLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CLOUD COVER AT BOTH KRST/KLSE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES...MAINLY
NORTHEAST IF I-94. LOOK FOR THE CLOUDS TO RISE INTO THE VFR RANGE
IN THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT EARLY
THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG/STRATUS FORMATION...MAINLY IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING THE KLSE AIRPORT. NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW
THICK/DENSE FOG WILL BECOME AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS
SCATTER. FOR NOW...WENT WITH 4SM BR SCT006 AT KLSE IN THE 10-12Z
TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.

.CLIMATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

AUSTIN MN 63 IN 1991
ROCHESTER MN 63 IN 1991
CHARLES CITY IA 69 IN 1981
DECORAH IA 69 IN 1962
MEDFORD WI 61 IN 1944
LA CROSSE WI 66 IN 1991
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI 68 IN 1981
SPARTA WI 70 IN 1971

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

920 AM MST SUN JUL 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE DAILY CYCLE OF SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN RETURN DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED BROKEN CIRROFORM CLOUDS ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F...AND
THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 2-5 DEGS F LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 28/12Z
KTWC SOUNDING DEPICTED A MUCH DRIER PROFILE VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...
WITH TOTAL PRECIP WATER OF 1.22 INCHES. STILL A FAIRLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 5 AND MODIFIED SURFACE BASED
CAPE OF 1000-1300 J/KG. 28/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SWRN CHIHUAHUA AND 582 DM LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST VICINITY 33N/124W. LIGHT
WLY/SWLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.

28/12Z RUC HRRR DEPICTED PRECIP ECHOES TO BE CONFINED TO GREENLEE...
GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THE TUCSON
METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTY. THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD END AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F WARMER
VERSUS SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL.

.PREV DISCUSSION /235 AM MST SUN JUL 28 2013/...MONDAY...MUCH DRIER
AIR OVER THE AREA UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF TUCSON AND MOSTLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY.

TUESDAY...WITH UPPER HIGH MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO...FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES A BIT MORE E-SE. STILL A LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF TUCSON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NOGALES EAST. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE UNDER E-SE FLOW ALOFT WITH
UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO. GFS/EUROPEAN/CANADIAN MODELS STILL
SHOWING THAT THIS DAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
BASED ON 850-700 MB THICKNESS NUMBERS...WILL UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES
AREAWIDE. BELIEVE MOS NUMBERS A BIT TOO COOL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST AS SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE COOLER THANKS TO THE ADDED MOISTURE.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/18Z. FEW-SCT070 SCT-BKN300 WITH ISOLD-
SCTD TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM KTUS
EAST. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS NEAR TSRA...OTHERWISE SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND DIURNAL IN DIRECTION. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD TODAY WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LESS OF A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...THEN EVEN
MORE SO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY ONWARD FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND OCCASIONALLY
A BIT BREEZY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
PREV DISCUSSION...JG
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

1150 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

BULK OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION STRETCHES FROM RIO BLANCO EAST TO
MC COY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP BEHIND
THE MAIN SYSTEM AS SKIES CLEAR AND DAYTIME HEATING FUELS
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PICK
UP RAPIDLY BY 4PM. STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. WILL BE CONTINUING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON STORMS FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEASTERN UTAH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WESTERN COLORADO BY LATER THIS
EVENING...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND
INTENSIFY. STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR THE STRONGER
STORMS...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT AREAS OF FOG MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT IN RAIN-SOAKED VALLEYS.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.

UT...NONE.

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...MPM/TB
LONG TERM...MPM/TB
AVIATION...JAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

1019 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

BULK OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION STRETCHES FROM MEEKER SOUTHEAST
TO GUNNISON. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEM AS SKIES CLEAR AND DAYTIME HEATING FUELS ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP RAPIDLY BY NOON.
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. WILL BE CONTINUING TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.

UT...NONE.

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...MPM/TB
LONG TERM...MPM/TB
AVIATION...TGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

159 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DELIVERS DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES NEW
ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING NWD FROM THE
BERKSHIRES...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING N FROM THE OCEAN
S OF LONG ISLAND. INSTABILITY IS CLOSE TO NIL ACROSS SNE WITH
MLCAPES ONLY 250 J/KG. DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS E NY AND W
NEW ENG WITH MID LEVEL DRIER AIR ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF NEW ENG.
BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM THIS AFTERNOON
REMAINS ACROSS W NEW ENG WITH A BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE SE NEW
ENG.

HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVING NWD FROM DELMARVA COAST
ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
AREA FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING.

DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL GIVE A MUGGY FEEL TO THE
AIR AND LIKELY CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF FOG.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRIER/LESS HUMID AND COOLER MON NGT THRU WED
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AT TIMES THU-SAT WITH RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

SENSIBLE WEATHER...

LOOKING AT A WARM DAY GIVEN THE MILD START AND POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BECOME LESS HUMID FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

THROUGH 00Z...IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS E COASTAL MA SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR.

TONIGHT...CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE S.

MONDAY AND MON NIGHT...PATCHY MVFR/IFR EARLY ALONG WITH A CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM...THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AND PERSISTING THROUGH MON NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF VFR IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PROB FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WE HAVE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CANT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE AND WED...VFR AND DRY WEATHER.

THU...VFR LIKELY WITH A LOW RISK OF SHRA.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE LOW SHOULD PASS NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS BY MIDDAY...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST...WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...OTHER THAN LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS FROM TSTMS EARLY
THIS MORNING ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT WIND AND/OR WAVES-SWELLS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

MON...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W. ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE.

TUE AND WED...FINE BOATING WEATHER WITH WEAK PRES OVER THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

THU...WEAK LOW PRES MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/NMB
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/NMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

335 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT ARE SITUATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ISO/SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DOWN SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY AREAS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN CWFA BORDER. ISOLD SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST
GA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SHRA/TSRA IN THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA...MAY HAVE TO UP THE POPS TO LIKELY IF THE
ACTIVITY KEEPS SPREADING.

LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR DOESN`T DO MUCH WITH THE CONVECTION UP
NORTH...BUT KEEPS THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY GOING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE REMAINS LOW...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS.

HRRR DIMINISHES CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET AND KEEPS THE NIGHTTIME
MOSTLY DRY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE SATURATED GROUND
AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

WEAK...MOSTLY DIFFUSE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWFA TOMORROW. DRIER AIR DOES SETTLE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT
WITH WEAK FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AGAIN TOMORROW.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH TUESDAY DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH ANY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED
ON LATEST BLEND OF GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 359 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013/
LARGE SCALE PATTERN NOT FCST TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. UNUSUALLY ACTIVE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE CONUS WITH LONG
WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST WILL CONTINUE. AFTER A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN THE MID LEVELS...APPEARS THAT
WESTERLIES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE SE BY WED MORNING
CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST THUR NIGHT. BACK TO THE RAIN WE GO. BEST
CHC APPEARS TO BE WED AFT THRU THURS AFT. HEIGHTS PROGGED TO RISE
AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE WESTERLIES WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH IN TN. MOISTURE FROM
REMNANTS OF DORIAN ALSO PROGGED BY LATE FRI AND SAT TO PUSH NORTH
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND NRN FL AND MUCH OF GA.

ALL THIS SAID...NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN OR SVR
WX. PW VALUES HIGH BUT NOT ANYTHING UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN TUE/WED INCREASING TO 1.5-2.0 IN
THUR/FRI/SAT. SFC DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN 70 AND MLCAPE GREATER THAN
800 J/KG FCST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO SE COUNTIES THRU THURS THEN
SPREADING AREA WIDE FRI. COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY BY NEXT
WEEKEND BASED ON 00Z GFS.

SNELSON

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF CONVECTION...AS PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW. MODELS ARE
NOT PRODUCING LOW CIGS TONIGHT...BUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
POSSIBLE. VSBYS 4-6SM LIKELY. EVEN LESS CONVECTION TOMORROW...WITH
SCT VFR CLOUDS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

NLISTEMAA

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 89 68 90 / 20 10 10 20
ATLANTA 69 87 68 88 / 20 10 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 59 82 61 84 / 10 10 5 20
CARTERSVILLE 64 87 61 89 / 10 10 5 10
COLUMBUS 72 92 72 92 / 20 20 10 20
GAINESVILLE 66 87 68 86 / 20 10 5 20
MACON 71 91 69 91 / 30 20 20 20
ROME 63 87 61 89 / 10 10 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 67 88 62 89 / 20 10 10 20
VIDALIA 73 91 73 90 / 30 30 20 20

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....SNELSON/BAKER
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

223 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

HAVE CONTINUED POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS GFS SUGGESTS A COLD
FRONT STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. GIVEN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF WARM AIR
ARRIVING...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS AND LOWS AT OR BELOW ALL BLEND VALUES.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT DOES
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE MAIN JET FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NW...SPILLING WEAK SHORT WAVES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE FEATURES IS LOW AND A
DRY FORECAST WOULD BE PREFERRED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND WISHES TO KEEP
POPS DUE TO THE BOUNDARY STILL BEING IN PLACE. WILL LEAVE POPS IN
FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

DIURNAL BKN CU WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
HEATING IS LOST...LEADING TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THUS
HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO BE 2F OR LESS.

ANY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1242 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

ANY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

639 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
635 PM UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSITIONED JUST OFF SHORE OF COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY AND HAS STUBBORNLY
REMAINED IN PLACE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE NEAR TERM FORECAST
MODELS, INCLUDING THE RUC AND HRRR, STILL INDICATE THAT THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE LATER THIS EVENING.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ADDED
SOME TIMING WORDING TO THE TEXT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY MAKE IT INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY, AS
ANY HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE, A LOT OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS, THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. OTHER THAN ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS, WEATHER, AND SKY
TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR/OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS, THE GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AND PASS TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL US A BLEND OF THE NAM12...GFS40...SREF...CMCREG AND ECMWF TO
INITIALIZE THE POP...WEATHER AND QPF GRIDS. USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND MOSG25 FOR WIND GRIDS WITH 150 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED
WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. THE ALL BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT GRIDS BASED ON VERIFICATION. DELINEATED FOG AREAS WITH
LAMP25.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONT TO BRING SHWRS AND EVE TSTMS TO MSLY
NRN PTNS OF THE FA MON NGT AS A S/WV ALF ROTATES SW TO NE FROM SRN
QB THRU NRN ME AND THEN TOWARD LABRADOR. KEPT CONTINUITY OF POPS
WITH PREV DAY PD BY CONTG LIKELY CVRG INTO THE EVE AND THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING TO SCT SHWRS LATE MON NGT.

TUE LOOKS TO BE MSLY CLDY N AND PTLY CLDY ACROSS THE S PTN OF THE
FA...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS FROM THE UPPER LOW
MOVG E THRU ERN QB KEEPING THE POTENTIAL OF INSTABILITY SHWRS
ACROSS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. WITH LIMITED SBCAPE OF UP TO
500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD AFTN/ERLY EVE TSTMS WITH THESE
SHWRS. HI TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BLO NORMAL DUE TO CLD CVR AND
SHWR CVRG SPCLY ACROSS THE N.

AFT A COOL NGT THAT WILL SEE ANY SHWR ACTIVITY DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVE HRS...WITH CLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES LATE. WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER
AND WARMER WITH NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS AS AFTN 925-850 MB TEMPS WARM
A FEW DEG C WARMER THAN TUES. WITH LEFT OVR UPPER TROFINESS XNTDG
SW FROM THE UPPER LOW OVR LABRADOR...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
AFTN SHWR ACROSS THE N.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFT A FAIR NGT WITH SEASONAL LOW TEMPS...THU WILL BEGIN SUNNY WITH
SOME INCREASING CLDNSS LATE IN THE DAY. 925-850MB TEMPS SUGGEST
THU HI TEMPS TO BE THE WARMEST THIS UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MANY
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST REACH 80 DEG F.
CANNOT RULE OUT SCT SHWRS REACHING FAR NW AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA
VERY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHWRS SHOULD HOLD OFF
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TIL LATE THU NGT VIA THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS. A CHC OF SHWRS AND MSLY AFTN TSTMS WILL CONT INTO
THE DAY FRI AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LKS...ALG WITH SB CAPES OF 600-1200 J/KG. HI TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER THAN THU DUE TO GREATER CLD CVR AND THE PRESENCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS.

OTHERWISE THE CHC OD SHWRS WITH BKN-OVC CLD CVR ATTMS WILL
CONTINUE FRI NGT INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LVL LOW FROM N CNTRL
CAN SETTLES IN ACROSS ERN QB...WITH SEVERAL S/WVS ROTATING ARND
THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND INTERMITTENT SHWRS.
FOR NOW...GIVEN TMG UNCERTAINTIES OF ANY PARTICULAR S/WV...WE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FRI AND FRI NGT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHED POPS
TO SLGT CHC SAT. WE ALSO LOWERED HI AND LOW TEMPS FOR SAT/SAT NGT
AND SUN/SUN NGT SEVERAL DEG FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE WITH THE
MODELS NOW SIG COOLER DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
FCST THIS WEEKEND. THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN
ATTM...SINCE RECENT PRIOR MODEL RUNS WERE NOT AS DEEP OR S WITH
THE UPPER LOW/TROF XPCTD TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. IF THIS TREND HOLDS...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO LOWER FCST
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN EVEN COOLER THAN WHAT WE SHOW THIS UPDATE.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR AND IFR CLG AND VSBY CONDITIONS XPCTD
MON NGT WITH SHWRS/SCT TSTMS/PATCHY FOG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MIDDAY TUE ALL SITES WITH VFR CONT THRU EVE. THE NEXT CHC
OF MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LATE THU NGT INTO FRI WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40. FOR
WAVES: STILL LONG PERIOD WAVE LEFT OVER FROM FETCH AT BEGINNING OF
WEEKEND. TWO WAVE GROUPS PRESENT BOTH SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WAVES SYSTEMS. BOTH OF THESE WILL PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS AROUND 3
FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. THIS WAVE SYSTEM WILL
REINFORCE LONG PERIOD WAVE ALREADY IN PLACE BY LATE MONDAY. AT
PRESENT EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO WIND/SEA HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THIS PTN OF
THE FCST WITH WW3/SWAN NAM BLEND FOR WVS TRIMMED ALG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO 1 TO 2 FT MOST PDS AND WV HTS OVR OUTER WATERS NO HIER THAN
4 FT ANY PD.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/VJN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

330 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO LAKE ERIE
AND EVENTUALLY UP TO THE NORTHEAST. AS TODAY HAS PROGRESSED...MORE
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE BEING
FARTHER NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. BETWEEN THAT AND THE EVENING
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...APPROACHING LAKE ERIE BETWEEN 00Z AND
03Z...THINK THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALREADY BE ON THE WANE AS THEY
PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF CHANCE POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT ON MONDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT ONE
LAST TRAILING ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THERE
WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND AM NOT CONVINCED
THAT THE SHOWERS WILL MATERIALIZE. CONSIDERING THE INHERITED FORECAST
WAS DRY...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND SREF APPEAR TO BE FAST OUTLIERS WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMING IN. THE NAM ALSO APPEARED TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES...WHICH COULD ACCOUNT FOR ITS OUTLIER STATUS.
GFS/ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...GENERALLY
KEEPING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TIMING OF POPS DURING THIS STRETCH. WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW...ZONAL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TOWARDS A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON WHAT TO DO WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ON THURSDAY AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING
UP TO ABOUT 15KTS AND DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. DISTURBANCE
SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA
AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN NORTHERN PA.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE NON- VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1247 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

THERE/S TWO CONCERNS GOING FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...BOTH OF WHICH
SEEM TO BE TARGETING THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS MORE SO THAN THE NORTH.
WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...POSSIBLY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS KLBF. FOR
THIS...WILL INTRODUCE A PROB30 GROUP FOR -SHRA FROM 07-11Z.
GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION...SO UPDATES
MAY BE NEEDED. THE PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR ADVECTION DRIVEN
FOG...ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WITH MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE...WILL LOWER THE
PREVAILING VISIBILITY TO 3SM AND OVC010 AFTER 12Z AT KLBF...WITH THE
ANTICIPATION THAT ANY CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID DETERIORATION
OF FLIGHT CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...JACOBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1157 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT
FOR SHRA AND TSRA. STRONGER TSRA WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR
CIGS AND VSBY AND MT OBSCURATIONS. PEAK WIND GUSTS WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY COULD REACH 40 TO 50 KT. GREATEST TSRA COVERAGE
ACROSS CNTRL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH NUMEROUS CELLS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. FOR THE TAFS...CARRIED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR GUSTY STORMS THIS PM/EARLY EVE FOR ALL EXCEPT KTCC AND KROW.
ONLY VCTS THIS EVE AT KTCC AND VCSH KROW. THE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER BY 06Z. 40

.PREV DISCUSSION...724 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013...
AFTER REVIEWING THE 12Z KABQ SOUNDING AND VARIOUS OTHER MODEL
PARAMETERS HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR
BASICALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES ARE
ABOUT AS HIGH AS THEY EVER GET AROUND CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS ESSENTIALLY SATURATED AND OUR PWAT
VALUE OF 1.27 THIS MORNING IS WELL WITHIN FLASH FLOOD TERRITORY.
INSTABILITY IS ABUNDANT AND OUR CONVECTIVE TEMP IS QUITE LOW SO
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE EARLY THEN SPREAD SLOWLY EAST NEAR 10MPH.
A WELL DEFINED GRADIENT OF DRIER AIR AND A COUPLE ASSCD SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY LATE DAY.
PREVIOUS RESEARCH STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THIS IS A PARTICULARLY IDEAL
SET UP FOR FLASH FLOOD EVENTS ACROSS NM. BASED ON THE 06Z NAM AND
THE 10Z HRRR NOT ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLOODING IN
THE WATCH AREA HOWEVER IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT FAVORED
LOCALES SO THIS WATCH IS LARGE. GUYER

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TAP FOR NEW MEXICO ONCE AGAIN TODAY...

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501>529.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1212 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SCT CIRRUS SHIELD
ADVANCING FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS UPWARD WITH ADVANCING CLOUDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES...ONE
IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVING NORTHEAST WITH TIME...WITH ANOTHER
ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER MOVING EAST. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A
WEAKENING TREND IN CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK TO MARGINAL. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE HOLDING TOGETHER OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA WHERE BETTER LIFT
IS OCCURRING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF A JET
STREAK. BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOULD ALLOW THIS AREA TO HOLD TOGETHER. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
AND LIFT IS FORECAST TO ENTER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE HRRR SUGGESTS RENEWED CONVECTION TO INITIATE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 00Z MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE BIG
PICTURE WELL IN HAND...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY OBS AND SKY
GRIDS AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS UPWARD ACROSS THE WEST A BIT BASED
ON CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY...LITTLE IF ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THEY SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS AS MID LEVEL
SUPPORT INCREASES.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THE RISK IS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS AT THE WORST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AND
BEGIN TO LOWER THEREAFTER...BUT REMAIN VFR. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF
AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LOWEST
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST AROUND 4000FT AGL NEXT 24HR. VFR VISIBILITIES
ARE FORECAST BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY LIFTED TO NEAR KCLL AND KUTS
AT 1730Z. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS SHOW CAPE VALUES REACHING TO
BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 THIS AFTERNOON. WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
THE SEA/BAY BREEZE LIKELY INTERSECTING THIS AFTERNOON...LIKED THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR ENDS THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND TRIED TO
TIME THE FORECASTS WITH THIS MODEL. THE NAM12 DOES FORECAST
CHANCES FOR MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT IF MVFR DOES DEVELOP
THAT THE CEILINGS WILL LIFT DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING PERIOD
ON MONDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013/

DISCUSSION...
BASED ON DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IS SITUATED FROM
ROUGHLY BRENHAM TO GALVESTON BAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S NE OF
THAT LINE AND NEAR 80 FURTHER SW (DOG BREATH CONDITIONS). SCT
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY FOCUS
FURTHER INLAND AS THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. 47

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 76 97 75 99 / 30 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 94 76 95 76 97 / 30 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 81 90 81 90 / 30 10 10 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

250 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
MICHIGAN...WITH WARM/MOIST AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF WI. THE LOW WILL MEANDER SLOWLY
EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO BUILD IN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STAYS WEST THROUGH 12Z MON.
EXPECT CLEARING WEST-EAST TONIGHT OF THE CLOUDS AS A RESULT. WITH
THE HIGH ALSO BRINGING IN LIGHT SFC WINDS...THE SPECTER OF RIVER
VALLEY FOG POKES OUT ITS HEAD. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT
RAIN ALL FAVOR AT LEAST VALLEY FOG. ITS ALSO GETTING TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AUG-SEP-OCT PERIOD FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG.

THAT SAID...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD TEMPER THIS FOG POTENTIAL
QUITE A BIT. 12Z BUFKIT SOUNDINGS VIA THE NAM KEEPS THE WIND
STIRRED IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER...WITH AT LEAST 10 KTS AT 300 FT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE RAP IS MORE BULLISH...HOLDING ONTO THESE
BREEZY NEAR SFC CONDITIONS THROUGH 3 AM. PRELIMINARY LOCAL RESEARCH
SUGGESTS THAT THIS DOES NOT FAVOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. WILL
STILL CONTINUE SOME MENTION OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT IF WIND FIELDS STAY AS FORECAST...IT MAY BE MORE
PATCHY THEN WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

THE BRIEF RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO COME TO MORE OF A CONSENSUS ON TRACKING AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT DIPS...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
WOULD DRAG AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT DOESN/T LOOK STRONGLY
CONVERGENT AT THIS MOMENT...WITH THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE VARIOUS WEATHER
FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEK HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THE
MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE ISN/T OVERLY HIGH WITH TIMING ON THIS FEATURE
YET. THERE IS AN INCREASE IN INSTABILTY/WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WHILE NOT OVERTLY HIGH...COULD SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IF TIMING IS RIGHT.

FRIDAY IS A PERIOD OF CONTENTION FOR THE MODELS...WITH THE 28.12Z
ECMWF CONTINUING TO POINT TO SOME PCPN POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER THE
PLAINS...TRACKING EAST WITH A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. GEM IS
SIMILAR TO THE EC WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH
KEEPS THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
GFS KEEPS IT ALL SOUTH...WHICH IS A BIG SHIFT SOUTHWARD COMPARED TO
ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID...BOTH THE EC AND GEM ARE TRENDING
SOUTHWARD WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE QPF FIELDS. WILL CONTINUE PCPN
CHANCES FOR FRI...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TRENDS
MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE REBOUNDING THIS WEEK AS THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
AIR EXITS EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STILL...THE PATTERN
FAVORS KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST
NORMALS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

28.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER MICHIGAN WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL WEAKEN...THUS ALLOWING THE BROKEN 2500 TO 3500
FOOT CLOUD DECK TO DISSIPATE. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT KRST BY
29.03Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 29.05Z.

FOR LATE TONIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP. WHILE THERE WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THERE IS CONCERN THAT THERE WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF WIND
IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. THE NAM SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME VERY SHALLOW FOG. MEANWHILE THE RUC AND GFS WOULD SAY THAT
THERE WOULD BE NO FOG. SINCE THERE WAS ALREADY 4 SM BR AND A
SCATTERED 600 FT DECK ALREADY IN THE TAF FOR LA CROSSE...DECIDED
NOT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1249 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION AND IS THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

FOR LATE TONIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP. WHILE THERE WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...THERE IS CONCERN THAT THERE WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF WIND
IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. THE NAM SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME VERY SHALLOW FOG. MEANWHILE THE RUC AND GFS WOULD SAY THAT
THERE WOULD BE NO FOG. SINCE THERE WAS ALREADY 4 SM BR AND A
SCATTERED 60 FOOT DECK ALREADY IN THE TAF FOR LA CROSSE...DECIDED
NOT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

.CLIMATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

AUSTIN MN 63 IN 1991
ROCHESTER MN 63 IN 1991
CHARLES CITY IA 69 IN 1981
DECORAH IA 69 IN 1962
MEDFORD WI 61 IN 1944
LA CROSSE WI 66 IN 1991
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI 68 IN 1981
SPARTA WI 70 IN 1971

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE