Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/06/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1005 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
WITH UPPER HIGH REMAINING OVER WESTERN GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS WILL BE GENERALLY CAPPED OVER THE PLAINS
TODAY WITH LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION AT 550-600MB ATTM
AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS INVERSION REMAINING THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE WITH INTEGRATED GPS PW VALUES
SHOWING UPWARD TREND/PAST 24 HOURS. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS/HIGHER FOOTHILLS. WE DO HAVE A 10 POP OVER THE URBAN
CORRIDOR BUT LATEST MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY STORMS DRIFTING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS.
.AVIATION...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT TAF`S. SURFACE WINDS ALREADY
SHIFTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE A SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR STORMS TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESTRAIN CONVECTION. CAPES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 500
J/KG ON THE PLAINS. WEAK CONVECTION IN THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD
ENHANCE WITH HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL
HELP SPREAD CLOUDS ONTO THE PLAINS. BUT THAT IN TURN WILL HOLD
BACK AFTERNOON HEATING. SO WHILE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY...THAT WILL PROBABLY NOT TRANSLATE INTO MUCH RAINFALL.
STILL EXPECTING INCREASED COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAINFALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THOUGH...SO KEPT THE UPWARD TREND THERE. LEFT TODAYS
FORECAST HIGHS ALONE...THEY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IF WE CLOUD
UP EARLIER THAN EXPECTED BUT IF THERE IS SUN THOUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS THE HIGHS SHOULD BE ALRIGHT. A LITTLE
WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKS AROUND FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PRIOR TO VEERING AGAIN TO WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHOT OF
MOISTURE TO MAKES ITS WAY IN THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...
THEREBY INCREASING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE UPPER FLOW GAINS A WESTERLY COMPONENT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO THE WEE HOURS
OF THE MORNING AS WELL OUT NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACH/EXCEED AN INCH AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HEFTY VALUES IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL...SO A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL EXIST WITH
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...DURING THIS MOIST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO STAY HIGH EVEN NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT
KDEN/KAPA AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT KBJC THIS EVENING.
HYDROLOGY...THERE IS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
TODAY...BUT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK AND MOVING.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS...BUT NO
FLOOD THREAT TODAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....ET
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
PLEASE REFERENCE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
20
/PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES WET WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER
THE MISSOURI VALLEY SPAWNING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH PWATS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 2
INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF QPF IN THE .30 TO .50 RANGE FOR SIX HOUR
PERIODS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH GFS DEPICTING UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTO NORTHERN
GEORGIA. WITH CONTINUED AMPLE MOISTURE...EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS
GIVEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO FUEL STORM DEVELOPMENT.
AS LOW FINALLY KICKS OUT THROUGH MIDWEEK...MOISTURE AXIS PIVOTS
BUT REMAINS OVER THE NORTH GEORGIA PORTION. ALTHOUGH UPPER ENERGY
WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT...SHOULD SEE MORE THAN ENOUGH INGREDIENTS
TO WARRANT HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS
INDICATES 48 HOUR TOTALS ENDING THU MORNING OF AN ADDITIONAL 2
INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN TIER WHICH WOULD CREATE ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS PENDING WHAT TAKES PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BY LATE WED INTO THU...UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF BECOMES MORE OF A
PROMINENT FEATURE AS INFLUENCES OF ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH ABATE.
MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD WITH A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTH GEORGIA THU AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN AND WILL
CARRY HIGH MID RANGE POPS IN GRIDS FOR NOW.
GIVEN TIME OF YEAR...BOUNDARY DOES NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
DEESE
HYDROLOGY...
THE LATEST QPF PROJECTIONS OFF THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER 1 TO 2
1/2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DOWN THE WEST SIDE
OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GROUND SATURATED OVER MOST OF
THOSE AREAS ALREADY...ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL PUSH RIVERS
AND STREAMS INTO FLOOD. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO FAYETTEVILLE TO HOMER THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. FOR THOSE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS NEW WATCH...WHILE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HEAVY ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THUNDERSTORMS...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED.
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND IFR TO LIFR VSBYS WITH WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CONVECTION
VRB15G25KT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 04-06Z...THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION CIGS VFR. AFTER 06Z...EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF WITH DEGRADING CIGS TO IFR. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RAIN AND TS RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY SE AT 4-6KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 5-9KT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 15-20KT EXPECTED AGAIN WITH TS
SATURDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 85 70 83 / 100 80 60 50
ATLANTA 71 80 72 81 / 100 100 80 60
BLAIRSVILLE 66 74 67 77 / 90 100 80 70
CARTERSVILLE 70 79 71 80 / 100 100 80 70
COLUMBUS 72 86 73 84 / 70 80 70 60
GAINESVILLE 69 79 70 80 / 100 100 80 60
MACON 71 86 72 85 / 70 60 40 30
ROME 70 77 71 82 / 90 100 80 70
PEACHTREE CITY 70 81 71 81 / 100 90 70 60
VIDALIA 72 89 72 89 / 70 50 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...
MERIWETHER...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...
SOUTH FULTON...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...
WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....37
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
858 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
MUCH AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE EVENINGS...DIURNAL CLOUDS
HAVE FADED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. BY AND
LARGE...GIVEN THE STAGNANT PATTERN...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS IF SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. FOG BECAME PRETTY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH FOG
WAS ONLY PATCHY THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. DEW POINTS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST FOG WILL
BE AT LEAST AS BAD TONIGHT AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH ON HEAVY FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN
FACT...THE HRRR NAILED CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT AND IS LESS BULLISH
FOR TONIGHT. SREF PROGS ALSO SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY OF DENSE
FOG.
SO...CONSIDERING THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING ARE A LITTLE DRIER/BETTER
MIXED THAN LAST NIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
LAST NIGHT. GOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. PLAN TO UPDATE
FOR THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TRENDS...MOST NOTABLY TO REMOVE POPS
DUE TO THE MINIMAL PCPN COVERAGE UPSTREAM AND ITS STRONGLY DIURNAL
CHARACTER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
BAK
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
STAGNANT CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF VALID TIME. HOWEVER...THE
PESKY UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL FINALLY DRIFT EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY. DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE LOCAL AVIATION WEATHER FROM THAT SEEN IN RECENT
DAYS...IE...MOSTLY DIURNAL CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WITH THE CURRENT TAF
ISSUANCE. FIRSTLY...SIGNIFICANT FOG IMPACTED EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR IF THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF. IN THE
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...UNDER A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME...FOG WAS NOT
A PROBLEM. THE BULK OF THE MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM
LATER TONIGHT...AND THE RAPID DECREASE IN DIURNAL CU TODAY
SUGGESTS DECENT MIXING/DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
SO...FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
SECONDLY...AS THE UPPER LOW REMNANTS DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE WAVE AT THIS TIME...CAN
NOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN A VCSH MENTION AT KDEC/KCMI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE REMAINING TERMINALS DRY.
BAK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
THE NORTH...STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PESKY UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI FORECAST BY MODELS TO SLOWLY
TRACK EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL IL ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE
OF THE WEAK FEATURE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL/SW IL BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH RESPECT TO FOG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LIGHT WIND REGIME COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-55.
COMBINATION OF REMNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WORKING BACK NORTH AHEAD OF THE FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACRS THE EAST WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE A BIT
FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAY. WARMEST TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE
ACRS THE WEST...WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN OVER THE EAST. MET GUID KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S
OVER EXTREME EAST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTN.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH MORE OF A METMAV COMPROMISE AND PUSH READINGS
CLOSE TO 80. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS UPPER WAVE SHOULD EDGE TO OUR
EAST BY 06Z SUNDAY TAKING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. WILL CARRY
LOW CHANCE POPS OVER OUR FAR EAST SATURDAY EVENING IN CASE THE SYSTEM
IS SLOWER IN MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN.
ASSUMING THE UPPER LOW IS OFF TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY...OUR FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESS...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING AROUND HERE FOR THE PAST WEEK. THE STRONGER FLOW WILL
EDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AS 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A FRONT THROUGH
THE MIDWEST LATE WED/EARLY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES ON
MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOT VERY GOOD WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF
THE MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VERY MOIST AXIS SITUATED JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST SURFACE DEW POINTS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ARE AROUND 70 DEGREES ACRS THE NORTH...AND IN THE TROPICAL
LOW TO MID 70S ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME STATIONARY JUST
TO OUR NORTH WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
/POSSIBLY LOW 90S. PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL AOA 2 INCHES ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD START TO EDGE
BACK NORTH LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG INTO THE LOWER
LAKES JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRONGER FLOW AT 500 MB TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH INTO LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
LAKES BY WED. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COOL
FRONT EDGES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY. SEVERAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING UPPER PATTERN WON`T BE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR GETTING THE FRONT OUT OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK SO
CONFIDENCE ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND POPS LATE WED/THURSDAY NOT
VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS INTO CENTRAL IL
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...SO DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND CONVECTION...WE COULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 BOTH DAYS. FOR NOW...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AROUND FROM CONVECTION IN OR CLOSE TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS...SO WILL GO A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE HIGHS ON TUE/WED...HOWEVER SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHICH WILL DRIVE APPARENT TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 90S. STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE WEAK COOL FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES LOWERING
A FEW DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1000 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE 06.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 60 KT WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FROM KBOI TO KRIV. ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM, NORTHERLY FLOW OF 40 KT WAS OBSERVED AT KDDC.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE CONUS RAOB NETWORK EXTENDED FROM KJAN TO
KAPX WITH AN ABSOLUTE PEAK MAGNITUDE AROUND 100 KT OVER KILX. @ 500
HPA, THE UBIQUITOUS ANTICYCLONE WEAKENED AND MOVED A BIT EAST WITH
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AROUND 590 DM OVER KFGZ. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WERE A LITTLE LESS WARM AS WELL WITH -7 DEG AT THE AFOREMENTIONED UL
SITE. DOWNSTREAM, AN OPENED UP TROF EXTENDED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. @ 700 HPA, KDDC TEMPERATURES WERE UP TO 11 DEG C COMPARED
TO 8 DEG C AT 05.00Z. LOWER DOWN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, THE CONTINUED
WARMING WAS PREVALENT AT 850 HPA AT KDDC WITH OBSERVED AT 27 DEG C UP
FROM 23 DEG C 24 HOURS AGO. AT THE SFC, A LEE TROF WAS NOTED ACROSS
FAR EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. INVEST 94L WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BASIN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA
WAS AT 17.1N 112.6W @ 06.03Z AND TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS AT 16.7N
103.5W @ 06.03Z
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL START OUT BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 18G28KT AS HAPPENED THURSDAY EVENING, THEN WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 10-12 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE
AND FLOWING CIRRUS IN THE 25 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES, I THINK THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO MINIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS OF THE RUC AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT LOWS
IN THIS RANGE. WINDS WILL HELP SLIGHTLY IN KEEPING THE
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
ON SATURDAY, IT LOOKS HOTTER AS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS BRING IN
THE +32C ISOTHERM AT 850MB AND +15C AIR AT 700MB INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A DOWNSLOPE
AFFECT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND HIGHER LAYERS WILL
KICK IN. EVEN THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS CEILINGS OVERHEAD,
MUCH OF THE CIRRUS WILL BE THIN AND NOT NEGATIVELY EFFECT SURFACE
WARMING. HIGHS AROUND 100F WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. OTHER AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WILL STILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 90S.
THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN BORDER
NEAR COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG
AND NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
ALSO THERE IS A WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
00Z SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ADD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A FEW STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE EXPAND OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUT ALSO TURN RELATIVELY FLAT AS IT ELONGATES
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAVE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS AT THE TAIL END OF THE WESTERLIES WITH JUST ENOUGH
CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW TO DEEPEN THE LEE TROUGH ALONG THE
KANSAS...COLORADO BORDER. IN ADDITION...A MODEST 60 KNOT UPPER JET
STREAK OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL AID IN PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT THEN STALLING NEAR THE
KANSAS...NEBRASKA BORDER BY EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL WARM
QUICKLY UNDER THIS REGIME AS 700 HPA TEMPERATURES ABOVE 14 C
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WITH A RESULTANT STRONG CAPPING ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER. NONETHELESS...BOTH SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING WILL SEE HIGHER BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH OR FARTHER WEST OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN REGIONS OF
COLORADO...MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR AT BEST SCATTERED AT TIMES WITH LOW
PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXISTING MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
283 BOTH EVENINGS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
MINIMAL AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND DO NOT SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS BUT INVERTED V PROFILES COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURE WISE...STRONG INSOLATION WILL
PERMIT MIXING UP 700 HPA WITH RESULTANT AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE A NEAR COPY OF SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE FLAT BUT ELONGATED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
LEE TROUGH SITTING ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER WITH KANSAS. WITH
700 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND 14C AND MIXING UP TO THIS LEVEL
LIKELY...HIGHS AROUND 100 APPEAR POSSIBLE YET AGAIN. IN
ADDITION...SIMILAR TO BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF A
LIBERAL TO WAKEENEY LINE AS STORMS FORMING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO MOVE SLOWLY EAST.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BOTH AMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIP INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIALLY THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER 100+ DEGREE DAY OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SORE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS EXIST BEHIND THE FRONT BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH A DECENT
SETUP FOR A NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. NONETHELESS...THE RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK EAST INTO THE
PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING QUICKLY NORTH OF KANSAS.
THIS WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
HIGHS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXISTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS DECOUPLE WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. ONLY SCATTERED MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT. BY MORNING
SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN, MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 100 70 100 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 69 100 69 99 / 10 10 20 10
EHA 68 98 70 97 / 10 20 20 20
LBL 66 100 70 100 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 69 100 71 102 / 10 10 10 10
P28 69 100 73 100 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...HUTTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
637 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL START OUT BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 18G28KT AS HAPPENED THURSDAY EVENING, THEN WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 10-12 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE
AND FLOWING CIRRUS IN THE 25 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES, I THINK THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO MINIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS OF THE RUC AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT LOWS
IN THIS RANGE. WINDS WILL HELP SLIGHTLY IN KEEPING THE
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
ON SATURDAY, IT LOOKS HOTTER AS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS BRING IN
THE +32C ISOTHERM AT 850MB AND +15C AIR AT 700MB INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A DOWNSLOPE
AFFECT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND HIGHER LAYERS WILL
KICK IN. EVEN THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS CEILINGS OVERHEAD,
MUCH OF THE CIRRUS WILL BE THIN AND NOT NEGATIVELY EFFECT SURFACE
WARMING. HIGHS AROUND 100F WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. OTHER AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WILL STILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 90S.
THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN BORDER
NEAR COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG
AND NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
ALSO THERE IS A WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
00Z SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ADD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A FEW STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE EXPAND OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUT ALSO TURN RELATIVELY FLAT AS IT ELONGATES
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAVE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS AT THE TAIL END OF THE WESTERLIES WITH JUST ENOUGH
CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW TO DEEPEN THE LEE TROUGH ALONG THE
KANSAS...COLORADO BORDER. IN ADDITION...A MODEST 60 KNOT UPPER JET
STREAK OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL AID IN PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT THEN STALLING NEAR THE
KANSAS...NEBRASKA BORDER BY EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL WARM
QUICKLY UNDER THIS REGIME AS 700 HPA TEMPERATURES ABOVE 14 C
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WITH A RESULTANT STRONG CAPPING ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER. NONETHELESS...BOTH SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING WILL SEE HIGHER BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH OR FARTHER WEST OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN REGIONS OF
COLORADO...MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR AT BEST SCATTERED AT TIMES WITH LOW
PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXISTING MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
283 BOTH EVENINGS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
MINIMAL AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND DO NOT SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS BUT INVERTED V PROFILES COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURE WISE...STRONG INSOLATION WILL
PERMIT MIXING UP 700 HPA WITH RESULTANT AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE A NEAR COPY OF SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE FLAT BUT ELONGATED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
LEE TROUGH SITTING ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER WITH KANSAS. WITH
700 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND 14C AND MIXING UP TO THIS LEVEL
LIKELY...HIGHS AROUND 100 APPEAR POSSIBLE YET AGAIN. IN
ADDITION...SIMILAR TO BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF A
LIBERAL TO WAKEENEY LINE AS STORMS FORMING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO MOVE SLOWLY EAST.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BOTH AMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIP INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIALLY THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER 100+ DEGREE DAY OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SORE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS EXIST BEHIND THE FRONT BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH A DECENT
SETUP FOR A NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. NONETHELESS...THE RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK EAST INTO THE
PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING QUICKLY NORTH OF KANSAS.
THIS WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
HIGHS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXISTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS DECOUPLE WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. ONLY SCATTERED MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT. BY MORNING
SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN, MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 100 70 100 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 69 100 69 99 / 10 10 20 10
EHA 68 98 70 97 / 10 20 20 20
LBL 66 100 70 100 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 69 100 71 102 / 10 10 10 10
P28 69 100 73 100 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...HUTTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN MO
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ANDERSON COUNTY TO DISSIPATE. ATTM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TOO
WEAK FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ELEVATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. THEREFORE...I WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER 6Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION. AS OF
19Z...TWO WEAK WAVES WERE OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE SATELLITE
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
TOWERING CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OWNING TO THE WEAK
INHIBITION WITH SCT THUNDER SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS WHERE
COVERAGE IS SCATTERED. ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS ELSEWHERE
WARRANTED A SLIGHT CHC THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY AS THE LATEST RUC AND NAM ANALYSIS SHOW ML CAPE FROM
500-1000 J/KG WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 20 KTS. COULD NOT RULE
OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND PERHAPS GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO 750 MB. WITH THE STORMS BEING
HEAT DRIVEN SHOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THIS EVENING AS TEMPS
FALL TO THE LOW 60S.
STOUT EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY AS IT
CENTERS NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS
SETUP...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS CLOSEST TO THE
RELATIVE STRONGER FORCING. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
WITH THE ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING OVER THE PLAINS REGION.
INCREASED WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH SUSTAINED MORE ON THE SIDE
WITH THE NAM AND UKMET. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES
EVIDENT IN THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF ROLLING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THE EARLY EVENING OF THE 4TH CANT
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME MIXED OUT
WITH VERY LITTLE CIN...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS INTO THE
EVENING THINK ISOLATED STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY DUSK. COULD
ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE EVENING OF THE 4TH
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLOW CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER
TROF FINALLY STARTS TO TAKE A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE ISOLATED THUNDER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT CROSSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH MONDAY THE
FORECAST AREA RESIDES ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH WITH
PRECIP CHANCES RIDING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TRANSITIONING UPPER FLOW MORE NORTHWESTERLY MAY BE ENOUGH TO LAY A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. AFTER TEMPERATURES
RISE BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY WEEK...COULD SEE
ANOTHER SLIGHT COOLDOWN IF THIS FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ATTM
THEY LOOK TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO INSERT ANY VCTS IN THE KTOP OR
KFOE TAFS.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GARGAN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...CRAVEN
AVIATION...GARGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
641 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS WARM AND HUMID AIR LIFTING NORTH
AROUND THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
640 AM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
627 AM UPDATE...FOG ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE TRUE AREAS OF
FOG WITH SOME SPOTS EVEN RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FREE OF
THE STRATUS/FOG. THE FOG DID CREEP INTO KBGR AT 09Z. A SPS WAS
ISSUED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR SRN PENOBSCOT COUNTY...BUT DID NOT
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT VERY
RAPIDLY WITHIN THE HOUR. THE HRRR HAS A REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE FOG AND INDICATES THAT IT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY 13Z/9 AM
EDT. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FCST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 598 DM 500H BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED 400 MILES EAST OF
WALLOPS ISLAND VIRGINA WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ALOFT
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA HAS
ALREADY BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE AND WILL MORE OR LESS DISSIPATE
ALTOGETHER TODAY. A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
TODAY WILL BE A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH 850H TEMPS OF +16-17C
AND 925 TEMPS OF +23C. STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE BY MID MORNING.
INLAND EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ASIDE FROM ANY EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 80S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP 90 DEGREES.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE REGION IT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT DURING THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE M/U
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. FRIDAY
SHOULD TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DOWNEAST AS SOME MOISTURE CIRCULATES
AROUND THE HIGH. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE LIFTING AROUND THE HIGH
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE MOISTURE SHOULD THEN SLIDE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLEARING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. FOREST FIRES CONTINUE TO BURN
ACROSS QUEBEC AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SOME SMOKE FROM THOSE FIRES
PUSHES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THAT WEAK FRONT.
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY MAY BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY
APPROACH THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE
TO BRING AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SMALL
WEATHER SYSTEMS TRACK ALONG OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. IFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
PATCHY FOG AT KBGR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN PATCHY FOG AT KBGR
AND KBHB LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR DURING THE DAY BUT MAY DROP TO IFR IN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A LINGERING SOUTH SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...BUT SEA/SWELL COMBO WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT THE VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF NM OR LESS
AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DENSE FOG
WILL SHROUD THE WATERS AT TIMES AS HUMID AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS GETS CHILLED BY THE COLDER WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS WARM AND HUMID AIR LIFTING NORTH
AROUND THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
627 AM UPDATE...FOG ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE TRUE AREAS OF
FOG WITH SOME SPOTS EVEN RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FREE OF
THE STRATUS/FOG. THE FOG DID CREEP INTO KBGR AT 09Z. A SPS WAS
ISSUED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR SRN PENOBSCOT COUNTY...BUT DID NOT
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT VERY
RAPIDLY WITHIN THE HOUR. THE HRRR HAS A REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE FOG AND INDICATES THAT IT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY 13Z/9 AM
EDT. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FCST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 598 DM 500H BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED 400 MILES EAST OF
WALLOPS ISLAND VIRGINA WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ALOFT
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA HAS
ALREADY BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE AND WILL MORE OR LESS DISSIPATE
ALTOGETHER TODAY. A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
TODAY WILL BE A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH 850H TEMPS OF +16-17C
AND 925 TEMPS OF +23C. STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE BY MID MORNING.
INLAND EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ASIDE FROM ANY EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 80S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP 90 DEGREES.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE REGION IT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT DURING THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE M/U
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. FRIDAY
SHOULD TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DOWNEAST AS SOME MOISTURE CIRCULATES
AROUND THE HIGH. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE LIFTING AROUND THE HIGH
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE MOISTURE SHOULD THEN SLIDE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLEARING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. FOREST FIRES CONTINUE TO BURN
ACROSS QUEBEC AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SOME SMOKE FROM THOSE FIRES
PUSHES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THAT WEAK FRONT.
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY MAY BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY
APPROACH THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE
TO BRING AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SMALL
WEATHER SYSTEMS TRACK ALONG OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KBHB AND KBGR. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR DURING THE DAY BUT MAY DROP TO IFR IN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A LINGERING SOUTH SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...BUT SEA/SWELL COMBO WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT THE VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF NM OR LESS
AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DENSE FOG
WILL SHROUD THE WATERS AT TIMES AS HUMID AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS GETS CHILLED BY THE COLDER WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1234 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1234 AM UPDATE...THE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE STRATUS AND FOG JUST
HUGGING THE COASTLINE. NONE OF THE OBSERVATION SITES ALONG THE
COAST ARE SHOWING ANY STATUS YET...BUT SUSPECT WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW
THAT THE STATUS WILL BE ADVECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HAS A
NICE HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND SHOWS THE STATUS PUSHING
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THEN RETREATING OFFSHORE BY AROUND 13Z THU.
UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO SHOW THE STATUS JUST OFFSHORE MOVING
INLAND A BIT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PRIMARY FEATURE IS STRONG BERMUDA HIGH
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE USED A BLEND
OF THE NAM12...GFS40...CEMREG...SREF AND ECMWF. FOR TEMPERATURE
THURSDAY HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS WITH MOSG25. LATEST VERIFICATION
INDICATES HIGH BIAS SO HAVE LOWERED THE MAXIMUM A FEW DEGREES. FOR
WIND HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND MOSG25.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WE ARE LOOKING FOR HOT, HUMID
WEATHER WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS. THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
WARM WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES THAT MAY
HELP SPARK THE CONVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. THIS
WILL ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM
VFR TO LIFR...IN FOG ARE THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THE FOG SHOULD BE MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALLY WORSE CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND IN PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: WE ARE LOOKING FOR SW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET, SO
CONDITIONS REMAINING A LITTLE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE/FOISY
MARINE...CB/MIGNONE/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT - SUNDAY)
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF A LINE FROM TABLE
ROCK TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS. RAP MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THIS INSTABILITY
AND AN INVERTED V STRUCTURE TO THE LOWER TROP...COULD CREATE A
LIMITED RISK FOR SOME WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
-20 LEVELS BEING SO LOW...WE THERE COULD BE A LIMITED HAIL RISK
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ANYONE PARTICIPATING IN FOURTH
OF JULY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR LIGHTNING
STRIKES UNDER THESE UPDRAFTS.
MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
A LOWER FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE BROAD OVERALL TROUGH AXIS WILL
STILL BE ACROSS THE OZARKS. SO CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO FOR
FRIDAY...AND EVEN LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
LOOK FOR THE WARMING TREND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY
SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY - THURSDAY)
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CONFINE THE SUMMERTIME HIGH CENTER OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE OZARKS WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND...AND KEEPING THE REGION
ALIVE FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS IS A FAIRLY DECENT PATTERN FOR AFTERNOON PULSE
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEXES ARE
ALIVE AS WELL UNDER THIS REGIME.
THE BEST SIGNAL FOR A POSSIBLE MCS WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT TRYING TO FORECAST SOMETHING LIKE THIS 6
DAYS OUT IS PRETTY CHALLENGING.
HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND STAY SAFE.
CRAMER
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID EVENING.
HAVE NOT GONE WITH A TEMPO OR PREDOMINANT WEATHER GROUP AS
CONVECTION IN EAST SPRINGFIELD LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW. HAVE GONE VCTS AT BOTH SGF/BBG THROUGH 02Z FOR NOW WITH
CLEARING AFTERWARDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT - SUNDAY)
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF A LINE FROM TABLE
ROCK TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS. RAP MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THIS INSTABILITY
AND AN INVERTED V STRUCTURE TO THE LOWER TROP...COULD CREATE A
LIMITED RISK FOR SOME WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
-20 LEVELS BEING SO LOW...WE THERE COULD BE A LIMITED HAIL RISK
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ANYONE PARTICIPATING IN FOURTH
OF JULY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR LIGHTNING
STRIKES UNDER THESE UPDRAFTS.
MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
A LOWER FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE BROAD OVERALL TROUGH AXIS WILL
STILL BE ACROSS THE OZARKS. SO CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO FOR
FRIDAY...AND EVEN LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
LOOK FOR THE WARMING TREND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY
SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY - THURSDAY)
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CONFINE THE SUMMERTIME HIGH CENTER OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE OZARKS WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND...AND KEEPING THE REGION
ALIVE FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS IS A FAIRLY DECENT PATTERN FOR AFTERNOON PULSE
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEXES ARE
ALIVE AS WELL UNDER THIS REGIME.
THE BEST SIGNAL FOR A POSSIBLE MCS WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT TRYING TO FORECAST SOMETHING LIKE THIS 6
DAYS OUT IS PRETTY CHALLENGING.
HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND STAY SAFE.
CRAMER
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
FOR THE KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER SW MO NEAR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS AT TIMES.
DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1226 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. MLCAPES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MO...AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A NARROW
AREA OF CAPE WITH NO CINH AT KCOU BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL MO
WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST. 12Z KSGF AND KILX SOUNDINGS AND
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP INTO THE 750-850MB LAYER
WHICH FAVORS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
BRITT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
MID LEVEL LOW OVER W CNTRL MO SHOULD ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY.
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTN AHEAD AND UNDERNEATH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS NERN AND CNTRL MO...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
MODELS ALSO GENERATE CONVECTION FURTHER E-NE INTO W CNTRL IL AS WELL
THIS AFTN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING
LEADING TO POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. WITH PLENTY OF
MRNG SOLAR INSOLATION HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY.
GKS
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW/TROF TO LINGER OVER WESTERN MO TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SO FOR TONIGHT...HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE LOW 60S.
ON FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
BY SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF TO FINALLY WEAKEN/GET KICKED OUT
OF AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BEFORE
DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
AS FOR THE EXTENDED...ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO THIS FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH BERMUDA HIGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN US...WILL SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH. THIS WILL
SETUP SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN
TURN THESE COMPLEXES TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BE A
FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OUT WEST. SO FLOW TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...THUS FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SHIFT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE FARTHER EAST. HAVE KEPT VCTS
FROM 20-01Z TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE DRY AND VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
30 HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY WEST OF THE
TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1103 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. MLCAPES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MO...AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A NARROW
AREA OF CAPE WITH NO CINH AT KCOU BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL MO
WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST. 12Z KSGF AND KILX SOUNDINGS AND
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP INTO THE 750-850MB LAYER
WHICH FAVORS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
BRITT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
MID LEVEL LOW OVER W CNTRL MO SHOULD ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY.
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTN AHEAD AND UNDERNEATH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS NERN AND CNTRL MO...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
MODELS ALSO GENERATE CONVECTION FURTHER E-NE INTO W CNTRL IL AS WELL
THIS AFTN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING
LEADING TO POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. WITH PLENTY OF
MRNG SOLAR INSOLATION HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY.
GKS
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW/TROF TO LINGER OVER WESTERN MO TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SO FOR TONIGHT...HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE LOW 60S.
ON FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
BY SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF TO FINALLY WEAKEN/GET KICKED OUT
OF AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BEFORE
DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
AS FOR THE EXTENDED...ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO THIS FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH BERMUDA HIGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN US...WILL SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH. THIS WILL
SETUP SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN
TURN THESE COMPLEXES TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BE A
FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OUT WEST. SO FLOW TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...THUS FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SHIFT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN UNDERNEATH AND AHEAD OF AN
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER W CNTRL MO. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE COU AREA LATE THIS
AFTN. WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST VCTS IN THE COU TAF DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVNG WITH FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TGT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE MAINLY S-SELY TODAY AT ONLY 5-7 KTS
WITH OUR AREA ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SFC RIDGE OVER THE
SERN US AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE SFC WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT
THIS EVNG.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. MOST OF THE AFTN CONVECTION
SHOULD BE W AND N OF STL...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS AFTN. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS
EVNG WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE TGT/EARLY FRI MRNG. LIGHT SFC
WIND WILL BECOME SELY LATE THIS MRNG...AND E-SELY THIS AFTN
INCREASING TO 6-7 KTS. THE SFC WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVNG.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2013
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. An upper trof will continue to move across the
area overnight. With enough low level moisture present, and CAPE
values 600 to 800 J/kg across a broad portion of the county warning
area, thunderstorms have developed and will continue to develop for
the next few hours. These storms have generally been producing brief
heavy rain and small hail. While convective activity should decrease
after midnight, HRRR analysis and the latest RUC both indicate
thunderstorms continuing beyond midnight, especially over Judith
Basin and Fergus counties. Overnight temperatures look good. Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 2355Z.
A disturbance aloft will move across the area overnight. Ahead of
this feature, southwest flow aloft will continue to bring moisture
and instability to the area. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
over Southwest Montana and move north and east through the night.
Convective activity will decrease to isolated in character after
08z. Westerly flow aloft will develop over the area by 18z. VFR
conditions will prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers and/or thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 220 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Tonight through Sunday...Increased moisture and instability ahead of
a trough moving east across southern Canada will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the area later this afternoon and
evening. Expect best chances for precipitation across Southwest and
South Central Montana though a lot of locations may see showery
light rain this evening. As the trough moves slowly across Montana
through Saturday night an unsettled pattern will continue to bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms to Central Montana. The pattern
starts to shift back to a high pressure setup sometime Sunday and
conditions will dry out and begin to warm up once again.
Sunday night through Friday...A broad upper level trough over
Western Canada will maintain near zonal westerly flow aloft over
the the area through first half of next week before the upper
level ridge builds back into the region. Several shortwaves
embedded within the flow aloft will move across the region during
the period, bringing near daily chances for at least isolated
showers and thunderstorms as the air mass destabilizes each
afternoon with peak heating. Surface pressure gradients through
the first part of the week will allow for light easterly winds
transporting low level moisture into the area and keeping
dewpoints relatively high over Central and North Central Montana.
This moisture is not anticipated to make it into the valleys of
Southwest Montana and should limit thunderstorm potential in the
area. Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages through
early next week before increasing late in the week as the ridge
of high pressure rebuilds and brings above seasonal average
temperatures back into the region. Suk
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 53 79 53 81 / 40 20 20 20
CTB 49 74 49 76 / 50 40 30 20
HLN 54 82 54 85 / 40 20 20 20
BZN 50 83 51 85 / 50 20 20 20
WEY 42 77 42 79 / 50 40 40 40
DLN 50 82 50 83 / 40 20 10 20
HVR 56 79 55 80 / 40 30 30 30
LWT 52 75 52 77 / 60 40 40 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
315 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
FORECAST PROBLEMS CENTERED MAINLY ON THE TIMING OF WAVES IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM TOO...AND IN FACT
WE TENDED TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /WHILE STILL
RECOGNIZING THAT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW COULD WREAK HAVOC WITH HIGHS/.
TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING ITS OWN OVER THE REGION AS
OF MID AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR 500 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. STORMS FORMING BOTH OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN AND NEAR A MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MT SHOULD
AFFECT THE AREA. THE STORMS NORTH OF ROUNDUP AT 21 UTC HAVE FORMED
NEAR THAT MID-LEVEL FRONT...AND THEY SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MT HEADING INTO EVENING. ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT BEING
SEVERE SINCE IT WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MORE FAVORABLE MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 OR BETTER. RECENT HRRR RUNS
PICK UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND TAKE IT EAST OF BILLINGS...BUT THE 00
UTC NSSL WRF-ARW /WHICH ALSO HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STORMS AS OF
MID AFTERNOON/ SUGGESTS SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN THE MID LEVELS MAY AFFECT THE CITY. CHANCE-STYLE POPS THUS
REMAIN IN PLAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LIKELY POPS UNTIL
06 UTC OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY
POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL
WY TOO. FINALLY...WE LEFT SOME POPS IN PLAY AFTER 06 UTC TOO GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
FRI...WE WILL MAINTAIN AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF MT BY EVENING...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE YIELD A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM AND 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KT OR BETTER. OUR
LIKELY POPS THUS LOOK LIKE A GOOD CALL...THOUGH THE PRECISE TIMING
OF THAT WAVE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND MAY INFLUENCE THE COVERAGE AND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. IN SOUTHEASTERN MT...SOME MODELS LIKE THE
12 UTC NAM SUGGEST EARLY-DAY CONVECTION WITH A WEAKER RIPPLE AHEAD
OF THE BETTER 500-HPA SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST IN THAT PART OF THE AREA CONSIDERABLY IF THAT IS CORRECT.
MOREOVER...SOME 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MIGHT BE
MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT...AND
SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT IN THAT AREA.
SAT...L0W-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
FURTHER. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THUS EXISTS. WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WAVE TIMING TO HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME THOUGH. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES. OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGHING SITTING OVER WASHINGTON
THROUGH MONDAY. LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS UP AND THUS CAPES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HIGH. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
AROUND AN INCH WILL TRANSLATE INTO VERY HEAVY RIAN IN STORMS.
THE NORTHWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH MONTANA ON
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE TROUGH WOULD CONCENTRATE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH THEN SLIDES EAST
WEDNESDAY AND ALLOWS AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PRETTY FLAT AND THUS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM RIDING OVER THE TOP FOR MORE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FLOW BACKS INTO THURSDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP
THE STRING OF CONVECTION GOING. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL. DID RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO GO
ALONG WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE TORRENTIAL RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40KTS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066/088 062/083 060/088 061/087 061/084 061/085 061/090
45/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
LVM 057/086 053/085 051/084 051/085 051/082 051/085 049/090
46/T 64/T 43/T 43/T 32/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 065/089 062/085 060/091 061/089 061/085 061/086 061/091
45/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
MLS 067/089 065/085 062/091 062/088 062/084 063/086 060/090
36/T 53/T 34/T 33/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
4BQ 061/089 059/085 059/089 059/089 060/084 059/084 058/089
25/T 54/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
BHK 061/085 059/083 058/086 058/085 060/081 057/080 055/085
26/T 63/T 24/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
SHR 060/086 059/082 056/087 055/087 056/083 055/083 054/089
45/T 55/T 55/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1002 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS POOLED BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS AT
MILES CITY AND EVEN BILLINGS IN THE MID 60S F AS OF 16 UTC. STORMS
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR HAVRE
TO RAPID CITY. SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE IN AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED FASHION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...ALTHOUGH HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT THAT IDEA.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVEN IF DEWPOINTS MIX OUT A BIT
LIKE MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE
WARM AND MOIST ENOUGH TO YIELD UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE
NAM SUGGESTS SHEAR WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT GFS
AND GFS-FED RAP SOLUTIONS SUGGEST HIGHER 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35
KT OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN MT. MEAN EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES FROM SREF
SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THE NAM MAY BE A LOW OUTLIER. THUS...WE DID
DECIDE TO UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ALSO INCREASED POP
VALUES TO THE LIKELY THRESHOLD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE FOR STORMS TO FORM
OVER THE BIG HORN RANGE IN PARTICULAR. WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD
MAKE HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY. OTHERWISE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORCED SOUTHWARD DUE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT SLID SOUTHWARD ACROSS
MONTANA OVERNIGHT AND WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF MILES CITY TO
BILLINGS TO JUST SOUTH OF HARLOWTON AT 09Z THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
VERY HIGH AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S AT
BILLINGS TO THE MID 60S OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL ALLOW MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH SHEAR OF AROUND 30KTS TO BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEARING ALOFT...BELIEVE STORMS WILL STAY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA BUT WILL STILL MENTION HAIL AND GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL IN THE ZONES. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER TODAY BUT
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING FORCING
ALOFT IN THE FORM OF Q VECTOR FORCING/VORTICITY AND JET DYNAMICS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST KEEP MID 50 DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CREATE SURFACE BASE
CAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH LI`S AROUND A -5C. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHERE HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL
MENTION SEVERE STORMS IN THE ZONES FROM BAKER WEST TO BIG TIMBER
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND WEATHER
STORY. FALLING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
BUT THEY WILL STILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RELATIVELY
UNSETTLED SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. MODELS DIVERGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS TO STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THE RETURN OD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE REGION.
SHALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY EASTERLY...KEEPING HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA. PWATS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN ELEVATED...AROUND AN INCH.
SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE DECENT...WITH GOOD WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT IN
COUNTERPOINT TO THE EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH
CAPES AROUND 1000J/KG POINT TO SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL EACH
DAY.
THE TROF SHIFTS EAST...WITH SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING TAKING OVER FOR
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE EC FAVORS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND
LONGER LASTING RIDGE...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND BEYOND. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO UNSETTLED
SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT INTRODUCED CLIMO POPS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH LITTLE
CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY...WHICH
COULD BE BACK IN THE 90S AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF KBIL THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ONE BATCH WILL
BE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH A SECOND BATCH WEST OF BILLINGS.
THE STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE TORRENTIAL RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40KTS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN BILLINGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 2 PM.
THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 066/088 062/083 060/084 060/087 059/084 061/084
3/T 45/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
LVM 091 057/085 053/083 051/083 050/085 050/083 051/085
4/T 46/T 64/T 43/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
HDN 093 065/089 062/085 060/087 060/089 060/085 061/085
3/T 45/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
MLS 093 066/089 063/085 062/087 061/087 060/084 063/084
2/T 36/T 53/T 34/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
4BQ 091 061/089 059/085 059/086 058/088 058/083 059/082
2/T 35/T 53/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
BHK 089 060/085 059/083 058/083 058/083 058/080 057/077
2/T 36/T 53/T 34/T 44/T 33/T 32/T
SHR 090 061/086 058/082 056/085 055/086 054/083 055/082
4/T 45/T 55/T 55/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
911 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN BLAINE COUNTY WILL MOVE INTO PHILLIPS
COUNTY BEFORE FADING. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY.
SINCE MODELS ARE UNDER-DOING THE CONVECTION...ALSO SPREAD ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT EXPECTED STORMS IN BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES WILL
DRIFT INTO THOSE ZONES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WHERE THE MODELS WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION
YESTERDAY EVENING...THEY WERE NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH THE
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. IT SEEMS THE BEST INTERPRETATION IS THE
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE HRRR MODEL AND A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE
OTHER MODELS IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ROUGHLY THE SAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ASIDE FROM A RE-ENFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...WHEREAS FOR
TODAY...STORM INITIATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH OUR WESTERN CWA BY THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE BOTH TODAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WIND...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS OUR GENERAL REGIONAL
AREA OUTLINED WITH AN ASSOCIATED SEE TEXT DESCRIBING THIS OVERALL
MARGINAL THREAT.
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY CONSTANT...EITHER SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF ZONAL OR A SOLID
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WARM TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO ALLOW A BETTER
FINE TUNING OF THE POPS...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THEN THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ONE THAT IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. THE MODEL RUNS ARE PUSHING
SYSTEMS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MORE THAN TRACKING THEM THROUGH
CENTRAL MONTANA. WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE FAIRLY NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
WARM UP TOWARDS THE VERY END. PROTON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY... CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 6PM. KGGW AND KOLF
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KTS. AEC
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
343 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WHERE THE MODELS WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION
YESTERDAY EVENING...THEY WERE NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH THE
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. IT SEEMS THE BEST INTERPRETATION IS THE
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE HRRR MODEL AND A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE
OTHER MODELS IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ROUGHLY THE SAME OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ASIDE FROM A RE-ENFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ON
FRIDAY...WHEREAS FOR TODAY...STORM INITIATION WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH OUR WESTERN CWA BY THIS EVENING.
FOR NOW...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WIND...AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS OUR GENERAL
REGIONAL AREA OUTLINED WITH AN ASSOCIATED SEE TEXT DESCRIBING THIS
OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT.
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY CONSTANT...EITHER SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF ZONAL OR A SOLID
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WARM TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO ALLOW A BETTER
FINE TUNING OF THE POPS...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THEN THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ONE THAT IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. THE MODEL RUNS ARE PUSHING
SYSTEMS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MORE THAN TRACKING THEM THROUGH
CENTRAL MONTANA. WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE FAIRLY NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
WARM UP TOWARDS THE VERY END. PROTON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY... CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 6PM. KGGW AND KOLF
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE
SWITCHING FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KTS. AEC
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
959 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
AT H5 STRONG BERMUDA HIGH KEEPING MOISTURE STREAMING UP THE EAST
COAST. TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERAL STRONGER
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SUPPRESSING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST RIDGE. NORTHERN PLAINS IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ALTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FURTHER WEST DISSIPATED RAPIDLY ONCE THEY MOVED INTO THE PANHANDLE
DUE MAINLY TO LESS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED...BUT ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING FURTHER. DRY
LOWER LAYERS ARE ALSO HINDERING THE PRECIP SO IN MOST CASES ONLY
SPRINKLES ARE MAKING IT TO THE GORUND. OTHERWISE FCST LOW TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK AND DO EXPECT SO BREAKS IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS BY EARLY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE SOONER THIS EVENING THANKS MAINLY
TO CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. DECENT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST SO THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THEN MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH OVERALL
MOISTURE IS LACKING SO HAVE KEEP THE IDEA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING/WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST TOWARD
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RADAR PICKING UP SOME LIGHT ECHOS...HOWEVER NOT
MUCH MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...ALTHOUGH PW/S
HAVE INCREASED...BUT ONLY TO JUST OVER AN INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE
50 PERCENTILE FOR JULY. OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
AND COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS. NOSE OF THE JET IS NEAR THE
NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER...AND MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT/CAPPING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP/SUSTAIN EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS SEVERAL OF THE NEAR
TERM MODELS DRIFT ACTIVITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN HAVE IT DYING
OFF. DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS AS NOT ALL MODELS GO DRY...HOWEVER
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
THE CWA. SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY AND INCLUDED LOW POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL...RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/MAYBE JUST SPRINKLES. TODAY THE CLOUDS HAMPERED HEATING IN
THE WEST...AND DROPPED TEMPS IN THE EAST AS THEY MOVED OVERHEAD. DO
NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD ALTOCU CLOUD DECK FOR TOMORROW...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. IF MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP...AS EXPECTED UPPER 90S AND MAYBE A LOCALIZED
100 IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW NEB. ALTHOUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS...THE
AFTERNOON DIURNAL CURVE MAY NOT BE SMOOTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES IN
THE NEAR TERM. TEMPERATURES TO STAY UP IN THE 60S AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING NORTH TO THE COOL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS A WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST IN FAST ZONAL FLOW. HEAT RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S NORTH AND THE
90S SOUTH. BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WITH
MORE ENERGY COMING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LOCATION
HAVE KEPT POPS IN LOW TO MID CHANCE CATEGORIES 25 TO 35 PERCENT
GENERALLY. SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
STRONGER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY FINALLY
SENDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER INTO KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH 80S NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND 90S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
KEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE GENERALLY TREND DOWN WITH THE HEAT
THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN DIVERGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
HAVE UPDATED THE TAFS AT KLBF AND KVTN TO INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. KLNX VAD WIND PROFILES ARE STARTING TO SHOW WINDS
INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KTS AT 500-1000 FEET AND WINDS AT THE SFC
HAVE REMAINED BACKED AND AT OR AROUND 10-12 KTS. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MIXING TO OCCUR WITH DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
LIMITED IN DURATION. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR LLWS THRU THE NIGHT.
HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF VCNTY SHRA FOR KVTN FOR THIS EVENING.
REMAINDER OF TAFS WERE UNCHANGED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE CONTINUES ABOVE ACTION STAGE
DUE TO RELEASES FROM LAKE MCCONAUGHY FOR IRRIGATION PURPOSES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JWS
HYDROLOGY...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
856 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
AT H5 STRONG BERMUDA HIGH KEEPING MOISTURE STREAMING UP THE EAST
COAST. TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERAL STRONGER
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SUPPRESSING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST RIDGE. NORTHERN PLAINS IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
TEMPERATURES DROPPING A LITTLE SOONER THIS EVENING THANKS MAINLY
TO CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. DECENT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST SO THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THEN MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH OVERALL
MOISTURE IS LACKING SO HAVE KEEP THE IDEA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING/WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST TOWARD
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RADAR PICKING UP SOME LIGHT ECHOS...HOWEVER NOT
MUCH MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...ALTHOUGH PW/S
HAVE INCREASED...BUT ONLY TO JUST OVER AN INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE
50 PERCENTILE FOR JULY. OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
AND COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS. NOSE OF THE JET IS NEAR THE
NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER...AND MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT/CAPPING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP/SUSTAIN EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS SEVERAL OF THE NEAR
TERM MODELS DRIFT ACTIVITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN HAVE IT DYING
OFF. DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS AS NOT ALL MODELS GO DRY...HOWEVER
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS
THE CWA. SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY AND INCLUDED LOW POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL...RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/MAYBE JUST SPRINKLES. TODAY THE CLOUDS HAMPERED HEATING IN
THE WEST...AND DROPPED TEMPS IN THE EAST AS THEY MOVED OVERHEAD. DO
NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD ALTOCU CLOUD DECK FOR TOMORROW...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. IF MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP...AS EXPECTED UPPER 90S AND MAYBE A LOCALIZED
100 IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW NEB. ALTHOUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS...THE
AFTERNOON DIURNAL CURVE MAY NOT BE SMOOTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES IN
THE NEAR TERM. TEMPERATURES TO STAY UP IN THE 60S AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN SHIFTING NORTH TO THE COOL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS A WAVE EJECTS FROM THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST IN FAST ZONAL FLOW. HEAT RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S NORTH AND THE
90S SOUTH. BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WITH
MORE ENERGY COMING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LOCATION
HAVE KEPT POPS IN LOW TO MID CHANCE CATEGORIES 25 TO 35 PERCENT
GENERALLY. SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
STRONGER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY FINALLY
SENDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER INTO KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH 80S NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND 90S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
KEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE GENERALLY TREND DOWN WITH THE HEAT
THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN DIVERGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
HAVE UPDATED THE TAFS AT KLBF AND KVTN TO INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. KLNX VAD WIND PROFILES ARE STARTING TO SHOW WINDS
INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KTS AT 500-1000 FEET AND WINDS AT THE SFC
HAVE REMAINED BACKED AND AT OR AROUND 10-12 KTS. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MIXING TO OCCUR WITH DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL BE
LIMITED IN DURATION. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR LLWS THRU THE NIGHT.
HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF VCNTY SHRA FOR KVTN FOR THIS EVENING.
REMAINDER OF TAFS WERE UNCHANGED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE CONTINUES ABOVE ACTION STAGE
DUE TO RELEASES FROM LAKE MCCONAUGHY FOR IRRIGATION PURPOSES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JWS
HYDROLOGY...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
652 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST UPDATE FROM SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AND WITH NO LIGHTNING OBSERVED SO FAR WITH THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY...DID NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OTHERWISE...WHILE THERE ARE NOW SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION AS WITH HIGH BASES OF THESE SHOWERS MOST PLACES WILL
HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING ANY PRECIP AT ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER BAND OF THEM TO THE WEST. THE
BAND TO THE WEST WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE VARYING METHODS OF HOW
THEY HANDLE THE WAVE TONIGHT. THE NAM AND THE HRRR BOTH BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
GFS AND THE 4KM WRF REMAIN DRY. HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SOME OF THE
SHOWERS THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST. IT IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE.
ON SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK COLD FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS
DRIFTS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE NAM
AND THE 4KM WRF DEVELOP SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER THEY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW REGIME SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE JET STREAM FLOWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF OUR COUNTRY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW
AND UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE AT
LEAST NEAR NORMAL TO LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL MOST DAYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BIGGER SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF US
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING FROM WEAKER
FORCED EVENTS SUCH AS MINOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WIND SHIFT
TROUGHS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR CONVECTION THAT FORMS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT COULD WORK INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND RAIN EVENTS WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST BUT IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR RAIN I
WOULD NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP TOO MUCH AS THESE ARE ALL LOW END WEAKLY
FORCED EVENTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 90S WITH MAYBE SEVERAL 100 DEGREE DAYS ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD IN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY IT COULD LEAD TO A VERY HOT START TO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIS AT KGRI THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND INCLUDED BROKEN CEILINGS AT 12 KFT THROUGH
06/14Z. MAY EVEN SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NO VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RIGHT AROUND SUNSET...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR
10KTS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SAR
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...SAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO START TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. LAPS
ANALYSIS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A NOSE OF A JET MOVING MOVING INTO THE
STATE...THOUGH SOME MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY AS YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABOVE
REASONS...THOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE A STORM OR TWO THAT PRODUCES
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WEST...NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF ACTIVITY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE HRRR ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NM AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL HAPPEN. FOCUSED POPS
MAINLY ACROSS WC/SW AREAS...THOUGH CONTINUED SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WHERE STORMS ARE JUST INCREASING IN
COVERAGE.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL INCH EASTWARD FRIDAY...CENTERING OVER EASTERN
AZ. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS THAT
DESPITE SOME WEAK W/NW FLOW BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS NW
NM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABUNDANT. OTHER MODELS ARE
NOT AS BULLISH ON QPF...THOUGH SEEMINGLY...THE NAM HAS BEEN
PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS OF LATE REGARDING
CONVECTION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE PERHAPS
ROUNDING THE HIGH. THUS...KNOCKED POPS UP A BIT MORE FOR
FRIDAY...AND SPREAD THEM EASTWARD A BIT AS WELL. STEERING FLOW
SHOULD TAKE STORMS A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...THOUGH OVERALL
IT WILL BE LIGHTER.
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE SQUARE OVER NM. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO KEEP THE AREA CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE WEAK...THROUGH STORMS MAY NOT BE AS POTENT GIVEN THE
UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD. ON SUNDAY...THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF SHIFT
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH EASTWARD OVER OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING FOR WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A MORE TRADITIONAL PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL NM. MEANWHILE...THE NAM AND THE GFS KEEP THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH OVER NM...LIMITING ANY NORTHWARD MOVING MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS...SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE...THOUGH WILL BE MORESO IF THE
HIGH CAN SHIFT EAST.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL WOBBLE AROUND
SOME...AND MODELS STILL ARE AT ODDS WITH WHERE IT WILL END UP. AN
EASTERLY WAVE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO...AND
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MAY HELP SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY A SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY...AS THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST HAS BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED
AND THE CENTER HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTH...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN ARIZONA. UPPER LOW STILL OVER MISSOURI. GRADIENT ACROSS
NEW MEXICO HAS RELAXED A BIT BUT STILL A 60 KNOT UPPER JET OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND A LITTLE SLOWER TO FIRE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. STILL EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STEERING FLOW IS STILL NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH MAGNITUDES JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS TO BE FAVORED WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
EAST.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND WITH LITTLE SCOURING OF MOISTURE DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THE STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM DAY TO DAY.
BY LATE FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME WESTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER MISSOURI...THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BE WEAKER YET...WITH A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS SHIFT...ALONG WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH SIMILAR
DISTRIBUTIONS TO TODAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY... THE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
RECYCLING IN PLACE. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SLOWER MOVING WETTING RAIN...WITH THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS SEEING THE LEAST ACTION.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST WHILE
ELONGATING IT TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES. DRIER AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A HIGH HAINES OF 6
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
WETTING RAIN WITH SMALL FOOTPRINTS.
RH RECOVERIES TO BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FAIR VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
HIGHLANDS. VENTILATION TO BE MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR VALUES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE TODAY BUT STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE DAY WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN BY 19Z. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE STEADILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z AND SHOULD BE GREATEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS...CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. STEERING
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH TO SOUTH. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 OR 50 MPH. LOOK FOR
LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES NEAR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE
THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 62 95 63 95 / 10 20 10 10
DULCE........................... 49 88 47 90 / 30 40 20 20
CUBA............................ 53 91 54 92 / 30 40 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 58 89 57 89 / 20 30 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 52 83 48 83 / 30 40 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 56 89 56 89 / 30 40 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 59 87 57 86 / 40 50 40 40
GLENWOOD........................ 58 91 55 91 / 30 40 30 30
CHAMA........................... 47 80 47 82 / 30 50 30 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 85 62 87 / 30 50 30 30
PECOS........................... 58 81 60 83 / 30 50 40 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 80 56 82 / 20 50 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 45 74 44 76 / 30 60 40 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 77 39 80 / 20 60 40 50
TAOS............................ 49 86 53 89 / 20 40 30 30
MORA............................ 51 80 55 83 / 20 60 40 40
ESPANOLA........................ 59 89 61 91 / 20 40 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 60 84 62 86 / 20 50 40 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 89 61 92 / 20 40 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 90 68 92 / 20 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 91 69 93 / 20 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 92 67 94 / 20 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 91 66 93 / 20 30 30 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 93 65 95 / 20 30 30 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 95 65 95 / 20 30 30 20
SOCORRO......................... 65 98 65 100 / 20 30 30 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 91 60 93 / 30 50 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 61 90 62 92 / 30 50 40 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 87 56 89 / 30 60 40 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 85 58 88 / 30 70 50 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 87 61 89 / 30 50 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 90 63 91 / 30 40 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 55 80 58 81 / 30 50 40 40
CAPULIN......................... 53 83 59 85 / 10 40 30 40
RATON........................... 54 88 58 91 / 10 40 30 40
SPRINGER........................ 53 89 57 91 / 10 40 30 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 85 57 87 / 20 50 40 40
CLAYTON......................... 60 92 65 93 / 10 30 20 30
ROY............................. 59 87 63 90 / 10 40 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 64 93 67 96 / 20 30 30 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 93 68 96 / 20 30 30 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 96 69 98 / 20 20 30 30
CLOVIS.......................... 61 92 65 93 / 10 20 30 20
PORTALES........................ 61 91 65 93 / 10 10 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 93 67 94 / 20 20 30 30
ROSWELL......................... 65 96 69 97 / 10 20 30 20
PICACHO......................... 59 89 63 91 / 20 30 30 20
ELK............................. 57 83 62 84 / 30 50 50 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
UPDATE...
CURRENT CONVECTION IS WANING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ALTHOUGH
NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED YET. HAVE HAD SOME MESONET SITES THIS
MORNING WITH SOME MEASURABLE /ALBEIT VERY LOW/ AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
HAVE TRIMMED THE AREA OF MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND REDUCED
THE MENTION TO SHOWERS. THINGS LOOK A BIT MORE IN QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD SOME LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN
THE WEST AND CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND ADDITIONAL RUNS OF
STORM-SCALE MODELS THROUGH THE SHIFT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
AVIATION...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY FORM AFTER 6Z IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND 7H WINDS BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE. NAM12 SUGGEST SIMILAR SETUP FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION WILL
FLATTEN THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...HIGHER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OK...SO HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. THE EC PUSHES A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
WEDNESDAY...AS A SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 65 91 68 / 10 20 10 0
HOBART OK 93 64 95 69 / 20 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 66 96 71 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 90 63 96 69 / 20 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 87 63 90 67 / 20 10 10 0
DURANT OK 90 66 92 69 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
CURRENT CONVECTION IS WANING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ALTHOUGH
NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED YET. HAVE HAD SOME MESONET SITES THIS
MORNING WITH SOME MEASURABLE /ALBEIT VERY LOW/ AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
HAVE TRIMMED THE AREA OF MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND REDUCED
THE MENTION TO SHOWERS. THINGS LOOK A BIT MORE IN QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD SOME LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN
THE WEST AND CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND ADDITIONAL RUNS OF
STORM-SCALE MODELS THROUGH THE SHIFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
AVIATION...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY FORM AFTER 6Z IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND 7H WINDS BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE. NAM12 SUGGEST SIMILAR SETUP FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION WILL
FLATTEN THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...HIGHER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OK...SO HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. THE EC PUSHES A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
WEDNESDAY...AS A SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 65 91 68 / 10 20 10 0
HOBART OK 93 64 95 69 / 20 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 66 96 71 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 90 63 96 69 / 20 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 87 63 90 67 / 20 10 10 0
DURANT OK 90 66 92 69 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
132 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
ALREADY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS POPPING UP IN THE NW AND MODERATE CU
OVER THE BALANCE OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SCT TO NMRS POPS LOOKING
GOOD FOR THE AFTN AND VERY EARLY EVENING. WARM AIR ALOFT KEEPING
THE LID ON PLACES WHICH DON/T HAVE ADDED LIFT/FOCUS LIKE THE
TALLEST HILLS DO. CAPES ALREADY FAIRLY HIGH AND BULK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OVER 40 KTS OVER THE NW. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF ISOLD SEVERE STORMS POSS IN THE NW. MOST LIKELY PROBLEM
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS...AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEP THE THREAT OF
HAIL LOW. TEMPS RIGHT ON TRACK...BUT STRONG JULY SUN COULD BOOST
THE MAXES A FEW MORE DEGS.
THE BIGGEST WORRY IN THE FORECAST IS THE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 9 PM. WHILE THE CONVECTION WILL
BE WANING AT THAT TIME...HRRR AND RUC STILL KEEP SOME SCT STORMS
IN THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH 10 OR 11 PM. WILL KEEP ON WITH LOW CHC
POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AS THE MODEL FINE-SCALE PHYSICS AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETRIZATION SCHEMES ARE NOT TO THE POINT YET WHERE
THEY INSTILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AREAL PLACEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SVR EVENING TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. BULK OF MDL
DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE E GRT LKS LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY TO HELP INITIATE PM TSRA ACROSS NW PA. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
CONVECTION WILL WORK SE...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE BEST CHC
OF PRECIP OVR THE NW MTNS AND LEAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE L90S
UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES. MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION MAY
HOLD READINGS IN THE L80S ACROSS THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LG
SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT OFF LOW OVR
THE MISS VALL OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF HIGH PWATS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALL TO PA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SAT PM. THE
CHC OF DAILY CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PA WILL REMAIN
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION.
WHAT APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE
ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF
ABV NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL CU ACTUALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW...SO WILL KEEP MENTIONS
OF VCSH TO THE OTHER TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN CALL
IT VCSH WITH TEMPO MVFR SHRA FOR ALL AREAS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 21Z AND
01Z. COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AND TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH
TERMINALS WILL DEAL WITH TSRA AND ASSOCD REDUCTIONS TO FLIGHT
CATG. BFD AND IPT ALREADY HAVE VCSH AND CELL NEAR IPT MAY THUNDER
SOON.
NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS...
BUT CONVECTION ON-GOING AT 00Z/01Z MAY TAKE UNTIL 03Z TO DIE AWAY.
THE NEAR TERM MODELS PLACE MOST OF THE SHOWERS OVER AOO/UNV AROUND
SUNSET. THE PATTERN STAYS VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS -
SCT DIURNAL TSRA - MAINLY IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE
MTS CAN HELP WITH STORM INITIATION. OTHERWISE...THE BIG UPPER
RIDGE WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE EAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-TUE...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1157 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALREADY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS POPPING UP IN THE NW AND MODERATE CU
OVER THE BALANCE OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SCT TO NMRS POPS LOOKING
GOOD FOR THE AFTN AND VERY EARLY EVENING. WARM AIR ALOFT KEEPING
THE LID ON PLACES WHICH DON/T HAVE ADDED LIFT/FOCUS LIKE THE
TALLEST HILLS DO. CAPES ALREADY FAIRLY HIGH AND BULK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OVER 40 KTS OVER THE NW. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF ISOLD SEVERE STORMS POSS IN THE NW. MOST LIKELY PROBLEM
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS...AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEP THE THREAT OF
HAIL LOW. TEMPS RIGHT ON TRACK...BUT STRONG JULY SUN COULD BOOST
THE MAXES A FEW MORE DEGS.
THE BIGGEST WORRY IN THE FORECAST IS THE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 9 PM. WHILE THE CONVECTION WILL
BE WANING AT THAT TIME...HRRR AND RUC STILL KEEP SOME SCT STORMS
IN THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH 10 OR 11 PM. WILL KEEP ON WITH LOW CHC
POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AS THE MODEL FINE-SCALE PHYSICS AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETRIZATION SCHEMES ARE NOT TO THE POINT YET WHERE
THEY INSTILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AREAL PLACEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SVR EVENING TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. BULK OF MDL
DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE E GRT LKS LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY TO HELP INITIATE PM TSRA ACROSS NW PA. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
CONVECTION WILL WORK SE...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE BEST CHC
OF PRECIP OVR THE NW MTNS AND LEAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE L90S
UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES. MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION MAY
HOLD READINGS IN THE L80S ACROSS THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LG
SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT OFF LOW OVR
THE MISS VALL OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF HIGH PWATS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALL TO PA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SAT PM. THE
CHC OF DAILY CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PA WILL REMAIN
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION.
WHAT APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE
ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF
ABV NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS ARE VFR AS OF 15Z WITH DIURNAL CU COVERING THE
LAND. KEEPING WITH THE VCSH MENTIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS...AS
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AND TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH
TERMINALS WILL DEAL WITH TSRA AND ASSOCD REDUCTIONS TO FLIGHT
CATG. BFD IS ALREADY IN VERY LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH MORE POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY. AS THE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE/PLACEMENT OF
STORMS INCREASES...TEMPO GROPUS MAY BE ADDED TO HIGHLIGHT TSRA.
NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE PATTERN STAYS
VERY SIMILAR. SCT DIURNAL TSRA - MAINLY IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE
AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
843 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER WITH BRIEF CLEAR SLOT OVER SC COS AND
LOW CLOUDS IN THE SE. DIURNAL CU ALREADY FILLING IN THE CLEAR SLOT
AND LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK BUT BEING COVERED OVER BY MID
DECK. BARELY SPRINKLES OVER THE NW AND UPSTREAM...SO POPS LOWERED
FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS THIS MORNING.
PREV...
SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP SHOWING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM RADAR
RETURNS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING OVR THE NW MTNS...A
LOW CHC OVR THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...AND NO MENTION OVR THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR IS WORKING IN PER
LATEST WV LOOP AND RAP OUTPUT.
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST AREAS
OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF THEY
WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE EASTERN COS SHOULD LARGELY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WHERE PTSUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE U80S. A WEAKER CAP OVR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PM TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS. THIS SCENARIO IS BACKED BY THE 00Z GEFS...WHICH INDICATES A
GOOD CHC OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTN. MCLDY SKIES AND AFTN PRECIP SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO NR 80F
OVR THE W MTNS.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS NOT IN A SLGHT RISK AREA...WOULD NOT RULE
OUT ISOLD SVR TSRA LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. MDL CAPES ARND
2000J/KG INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND 06Z NAM
INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LYR SHEAR ACROSS THE W MTNS...
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SVR EVENING TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. BULK OF MDL
DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE E GRT LKS LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY TO HELP INITIATE PM TSRA ACROSS NW PA. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
CONVECTION WILL WORK SE...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE BEST CHC
OF PRECIP OVR THE NW MTNS AND LEAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE L90S
UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES. MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION MAY
HOLD READINGS IN THE L80S ACROSS THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LG
SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT OFF LOW OVR
THE MISS VALL OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF HIGH PWATS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALL TO PA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SAT PM. THE
CHC OF DAILY CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PA WILL REMAIN
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION.
WHAT APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE
ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF
ABV NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MORE OF A GRADIENT TONIGHT...THUS LEFT FOG OUT OF THE 12Z
TAF PACKAGE NOW.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE VFR...AS AIR
MASS MIXES A LITTLE AND CU FORM. WENT VCSH...AS NOT SEEING A LOT
OF ACTIVITY YESERDAY OR TODAY SO FAR.
HEIGHTS RISE...BUT GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S AT TIMES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM
NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
729 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP SHOWING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM RADAR
RETURNS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING OVR THE NW
MTNS...A LOW CHC OVR THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...AND NO MENTION OVR
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR IS WORKING IN
PER LATEST WV LOOP AND RAP OUTPUT.
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST AREAS
OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF THEY
WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE EASTERN COS SHOULD LARGELY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WHERE PTSUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE U80S. A WEAKER CAP OVR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PM TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS. THIS SCENARIO IS BACKED BY THE 00Z GEFS...WHICH INDICATES A
GOOD CHC OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTN. MCLDY SKIES AND AFTN PRECIP SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO NR 80F
OVR THE W MTNS.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS NOT IN A SLGHT RISK AREA...WOULD NOT RULE
OUT ISOLD SVR TSRA LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. MDL CAPES ARND
2000J/KG INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND 06Z NAM
INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LYR SHEAR ACROSS THE W MTNS...
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SVR EVENING TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. BULK OF MDL
DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE E GRT LKS LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY TO HELP INITIATE PM TSRA ACROSS NW PA. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
CONVECTION WILL WORK SE...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE BEST CHC
OF PRECIP OVR THE NW MTNS AND LEAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE L90S
UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES. MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION MAY
HOLD READINGS IN THE L80S ACROSS THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LG
SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT OFF LOW OVR
THE MISS VALL OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF HIGH PWATS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALL TO PA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SAT PM. THE
CHC OF DAILY CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PA WILL REMAIN
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION.
WHAT APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE
ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF
ABV NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. FOG NOT QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD AS EXPECTED.
EXPECT MORE OF A GRADIENT TONIGHT...THUS LEFT FOG OUT OF THE
12Z TAF PACKAGE NOW.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE VFR...
AS AIR MASS MIXES A LITTLE AND CU FORM. WENT VCSH...AS NOT
SEEING A LOT OF ACTIVITY YESERDAY OR TODAY SO FAR.
HEIGHTS RISE...BUT GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT TIMES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM
NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
637 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP SHOWING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM RADAR
RETURNS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING OVR THE NW
MTNS...A LOW CHC OVR THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...AND NO MENTION OVR
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR IS WORKING IN
PER LATEST WV LOOP AND RAP OUTPUT.
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST AREAS
OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF THEY
WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE EASTERN COS SHOULD LARGELY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WHERE PTSUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE U80S. A WEAKER CAP OVR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PM TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS. THIS SCENARIO IS BACKED BY THE 00Z GEFS...WHICH INDICATES A
GOOD CHC OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTN. MCLDY SKIES AND AFTN PRECIP SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO NR 80F
OVR THE W MTNS.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS NOT IN A SLGHT RISK AREA...WOULD NOT RULE
OUT ISOLD SVR TSRA LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. MDL CAPES ARND
2000J/KG INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND 06Z NAM
INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LYR SHEAR ACROSS THE W MTNS...
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SVR EVENING TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. BULK OF MDL
DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE E GRT LKS LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY TO HELP INITIATE PM TSRA ACROSS NW PA. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
CONVECTION WILL WORK SE...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE BEST CHC
OF PRECIP OVR THE NW MTNS AND LEAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE L90S
UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES. MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION MAY
HOLD READINGS IN THE L80S ACROSS THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LG
SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT OFF LOW OVR
THE MISS VALL OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF HIGH PWATS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALL TO PA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SAT PM. THE
CHC OF DAILY CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PA WILL REMAIN
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION.
WHAT APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE
ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF
ABV NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR THE 09Z OR 12Z TAF PACKAGE. FOG
NOT QUITE AS BAD AS EXPECTED EARLIER.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MAINLY VFR STILL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A FEW SPOTS
WITH IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF IFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE VFR...
AS AIR MASS MIXES A LITTLE AND CU FORM. WENT VCSH...AS NOT
SEEING A LOT OF ACTIVITY YESERDAY OR TODAY SO FAR.
HEIGHTS RISE...BUT GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT TIMES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM
NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
600 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP SHOWING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM RADAR
RETURNS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING OVR THE NW
MTNS...A LOW CHC OVR THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...AND NO MENTION OVR
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR IS WORKING IN
PER LATEST WV LOOP AND RAP OUTPUT.
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST AREAS
OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF THEY
WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE EASTERN COS SHOULD LARGELY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WHERE PTSUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE U80S. A WEAKER CAP OVR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PM TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS. THIS SCENARIO IS BACKED BY THE 00Z GEFS...WHICH INDICATES A
GOOD CHC OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTN. MCLDY SKIES AND AFTN PRECIP SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO NR 80F
OVR THE W MTNS.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS NOT IN A SLGHT RISK AREA...WOULD NOT RULE
OUT ISOLD SVR TSRA LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. MDL CAPES ARND 2000J/KG
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND 06Z NAM INDICATES
SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LYR SHEAR ACROSS THE W MTNS...CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SVR EVENING TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. BULK OF MDL
DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE E GRT LKS LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY TO HELP INITIATE PM TSRA ACROSS NW PA. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
CONVECTION WILL WORK SE...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE BEST CHC
OF PRECIP OVR THE NW MTNS AND LEAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE L90S
UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES. MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION MAY
HOLD READINGS IN THE L80S ACROSS THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LG
SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT OFF LOW OVR
THE MISS VALL OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF HIGH PWATS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALL TO PA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SAT PM. THE
CHC OF DAILY CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PA WILL REMAIN
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION.
WHAT APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE
ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF
ABV NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR STILL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A FEW SPOTS
WITH IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF IFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE VFR...
AS AIR MASS MIXES A LITTLE AND CU FORM. WENT VCSH...AS NOT
SEEING A LOT OF ACTIVITY YESERDAY OR TODAY SO FAR.
HEIGHTS RISE...BUT GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT TIMES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM
NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
318 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD AND SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN
THE UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. THESE SMALL
CHANGES TO THE BIG PICTURE WILL MEAN ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OF SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL UP THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO WESTERN PA EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THRU
DAWN OVR THE NW MTNS...CHC OVR THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...AND NO
MENTION OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR
IS WORKING IN PER LATEST WV LOOP AND RAP OUTPUT.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. ACROSS THE EAST...A
LIGHT WIND...COMBINED WITH PTCLDY SKIES WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF
FOG EARLY THIS AM. 06Z TEMPS CLOSING IN ON DWPTS...SO NOT MUCH
MORE COOLING EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U60S OVR THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L/M70S ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND RATHER MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST
AREAS OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF
THEY WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
THE THOUGHT OF A BIT OF A CAP OF WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE
EASTERN COS FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY IS STILL VALID AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED MORE-SO IN THE EAST THAN OVER THE
WEST...DESPITE MUCH HIGHER CAPES FCST IN THE EAST. COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT WARRANT MORE THAN LOW-END LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND JUST A 20
POP IN THE SE. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND A BIT WARMER TEMPS
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES TODAY. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND 22C
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS FROM NR 80F OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE
U80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID REMAINS THE RULE AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE MIDWEST UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY
DIURNALLY INTO LATE WEEK.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS DOMINATING THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN
AND RETREATS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY. THE
GFS AND EC DISAGREE ON TIME OF THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER BOTH AGREE
THAT IT WILL PASS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY..AND ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW COULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THAT SYSTEM
WILL USHER IN A PATTERN SHIFT INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SEE A MORE
ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR STILL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A FEW SPOTS
WITH IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF IFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE VFR...
AS AIRMASS MIXES A LITTLE AND CU FORM. WENT VCSH...AS NOT
SEEING A LOT OF ACTIVITY YESERDAY OR TODAY SO FAR.
HEIGHTS RISE...BUT GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT TIMES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM
NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
214 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD AND SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN
THE UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. THESE SMALL
CHANGES TO THE BIG PICTURE WILL MEAN ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OF SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL UP THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO WESTERN PA EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THRU
DAWN OVR THE NW MTNS...CHC OVR THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...AND NO
MENTION OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR
IS WORKING IN PER LATEST WV LOOP AND RAP OUTPUT.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. ACROSS THE EAST...A
LIGHT WIND...COMBINED WITH PTCLDY SKIES WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF
FOG EARLY THIS AM. 06Z TEMPS CLOSING IN ON DWPTS...SO NOT MUCH
MORE COOLING EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U60S OVR THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L/M70S ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND RATHER MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST
AREAS OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF
THEY WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
THE THOUGHT OF A BIT OF A CAP OF WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE
EASTERN COS FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY IS STILL VALID AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED MORE-SO IN THE EAST THAN OVER THE
WEST...DESPITE MUCH HIGHER CAPES FCST IN THE EAST. COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT WARRANT MORE THAN LOW-END LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND JUST A 20
POP IN THE SE. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND A BIT WARMER TEMPS
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES TODAY. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND 22C
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS FROM NR 80F OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE
U80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID REMAINS THE RULE AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE MIDWEST UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY
DIURNALLY INTO LATE WEEK.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS DOMINATING THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN
AND RETREATS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY. THE
GFS AND EC DISAGREE ON TIME OF THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER BOTH AGREE
THAT IT WILL PASS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY..AND ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW COULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THAT SYSTEM
WILL USHER IN A PATTERN SHIFT INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SEE A MORE
ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACTING WESTERN AREAS WITH A
N-S ORIENTED BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS JUST WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. EXPECT
TO SEE A WEAKENING TREND TO THE SHOWERS AND TSRA THROUGH
04Z...THOUGH HRRR AND 4KM NAM HINT AT CONVECTION MOVING SLOWLY
INTO FAR NWRN PENN...YET REMAINING WEST OF KBFD.
A FEW MORE SHOWERS COULD GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...BUT LOW AREAL COVERAGE WILL
KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD OF LOWERING CIGS /TO MVFR WITH SOME IFR/ AND LIGHT
FOG AROUND SUNRISE.
EXPECT A RETURN OF DIURNAL CU AND SCT TO LIKELY SHRA/TSRA BY THU
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA. MDT AND LNS
HAVE THE LOWEST THREAT FOR TSTM-RELATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. COVG
AND PROB UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO ONLY MENTION SHRA AT BFD IN THE
MORNING AND WILL ALSO THROW IN VCTS TO ALL BUT LNS/MDT BEFORE THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE CONTROLLING FACTORS OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AND BIG WRN ATLC/BERMUDA RIDGE WILL MORPH A BIT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL NUDGE WWD WHILE THE LOW
FILLS/LIFTS A BIT...BUT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP DRAW THE
DEEP TROPICAL MSTR UP INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DAILY FORECASTS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MTS WILL BE NECESSARY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1210 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
OFF TO A MILD START FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...LENDING CONFIDENCE
IN SIDING TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RUC13 BY FAR THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS FOR HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM 87 AT KSLB TO 99 FOR K9V9. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE
GIVEN ITS 925MB TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY
STAYING 3-5F LOWER THAN RUC13 PROJECTED MAX TEMP...MORE IN REALM OF
WARMER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 04/00Z NAM AND 03/12Z GEM. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL STAY IN CHECK AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY POTENTIAL DETRIMENT TO 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES TODAY WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET FOR FIREWORKS...BUT SHOULD STILL
BE IN 10-20 MPH RANGE GIVEN FORECAST WINDS OF 15-25KT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. MILD TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE MODEST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BENEATH DEVELOPING 35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STRONGEST OVERNIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN...WHERE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH COULD BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...STILL LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER GIVEN DRY
LAYER BELOW 700MB. HOWEVER...HARD TO ARGUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z...AHEAD OF
SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH TRACKS INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL SATURATION DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
AXIS ABOVE 700MB...SO WILL HANG ONTO NARROW AREA OF ISOLATED POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. BIGGER QUESTION IS
WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR FAR WEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
SD. CONSENSUS KEEPS BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME NEAR SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE AREA...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE MID 90S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...COULD SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REACHING CHAMBERLAIN AREA
PRIOR TO SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
WILL STILL FIND THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AREA SHEARS IN DEFORMATION ON BACK SIDE
OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW. STILL HAVE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT STILL JUST ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF MOIST NEUTRAL
TO GIVE SOME 100-300 J/KG CAPE. FORCING ENTIRELY MID LEVEL...AND
DIV Q SIGNATURE ALONG WITH THE 700 HPA THETA E ADVECTION INDICATE
WEAKENING POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN TOWARD MIDDAY...SO ENDED THREAT BY
15Z AFTER WORKING JUST A BIT EASTWARD. LIKELY THAT NET STORM
MOTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT EAST OF SOUTH GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE. REST
OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
OVER TODAY. QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
SUITE GIVEN THE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. BY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT...CWA COULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER
MCS...DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS SD. THIS AREA WILL LINGER
ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOON BE ON THE WEAKENING TREND WITH WAVE
MOVING PAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING MORE OFF SURFACE.
DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUDS...WILL BE WIDE POTENTIAL RANGE OF
TEMPS ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FIND A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN
DEWPOINTS WHICH COULD CRACK 70 DEGREES PRIOR TO DEEPER MIXING. AS
A RESULT...POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON HEATING. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF SOUNDINGS
FROM VARIOUS SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY STOUT CAP WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNLESS TEMPS ARE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
THAN EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO BE
BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE HEATED OUT CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THROUGH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH POTENTIAL AS WELL ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH HANG UP TOWARD HIGHWAY 14. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG INSTABILITY...AND THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A
MENTIONABLE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT COVERAGE COULD BE
LIMITED BY THE DEGREE OF CAPPING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY AS
WAVY ZONAL FLOW AROUND TO START...WITH SEVERAL SUGGESTIONS OF SOME
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS PRETTY RANDOM BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AND ONE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE THE LOWER LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP AS EACH PASSES AND INDUCES CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
SOUTHEASTWARD... THERE IS A GREATER IDEA BUILDING THAT RIDGING
WHICH BUILDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY HELP TO BRING A BRIEF
END TO CONVECTION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS MORE SO THAN
INDICATED IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE MOMENT...WILL USE A HIGHER
POP SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT LOWER NORTH TO INDICATE THE TREND. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT...AND FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENS... WOULD GET SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL JET
RETURN...AND WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...LIKELY THAT WOULD SEE SOME ENHANCED THREAT FOR
STORMS...PERHAPS WELL ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A FEW SEVERE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE INITIAL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW
READINGS WORKING BACK TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TOWARD MIDWEEK. FAIRLY
HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE SOLID POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN SD AT 17Z WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL LEAVE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE JAMES RIVER AFTER
05/06Z...ASSOCIATED WITH A 35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK...
GENERALLY UNORGANIZED FRONTOGENESIS. THE CHANCES WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED
SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY TSRA...HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20-25KT EXPECTED 04/17Z-05/01Z. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
638 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
OFF TO A MILD START FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...LENDING CONFIDENCE
IN SIDING TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RUC13 BY FAR THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS FOR HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM 87 AT KSLB TO 99 FOR K9V9. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE
GIVEN ITS 925MB TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY
STAYING 3-5F LOWER THAN RUC13 PROJECTED MAX TEMP...MORE IN REALM OF
WARMER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 04/00Z NAM AND 03/12Z GEM. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL STAY IN CHECK AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY POTENTIAL DETRIMENT TO 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES TODAY WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET FOR FIREWORKS...BUT SHOULD STILL
BE IN 10-20 MPH RANGE GIVEN FORECAST WINDS OF 15-25KT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. MILD TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE MODEST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BENEATH DEVELOPING 35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STRONGEST OVERNIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN...WHERE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH COULD BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...STILL LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER GIVEN DRY
LAYER BELOW 700MB. HOWEVER...HARD TO ARGUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z...AHEAD OF
SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH TRACKS INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL SATURATION DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
AXIS ABOVE 700MB...SO WILL HANG ONTO NARROW AREA OF ISOLATED POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. BIGGER QUESTION IS
WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR FAR WEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
SD. CONSENSUS KEEPS BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME NEAR SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE AREA...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE MID 90S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...COULD SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REACHING CHAMBERLAIN AREA
PRIOR TO SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
WILL STILL FIND THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AREA SHEARS IN DEFORMATION ON BACK SIDE
OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW. STILL HAVE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT STILL JUST ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF MOIST NEUTRAL
TO GIVE SOME 100-300 J/KG CAPE. FORCING ENTIRELY MID LEVEL...AND
DIV Q SIGNATURE ALONG WITH THE 700 HPA THETA E ADVECTION INDICATE
WEAKENING POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN TOWARD MIDDAY...SO ENDED THREAT BY
15Z AFTER WORKING JUST A BIT EASTWARD. LIKELY THAT NET STORM
MOTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT EAST OF SOUTH GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE. REST
OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
OVER TODAY. QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
SUITE GIVEN THE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. BY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT...CWA COULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER
MCS...DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS SD. THIS AREA WILL LINGER
ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOON BE ON THE WEAKENING TREND WITH WAVE
MOVING PAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING MORE OFF SURFACE.
DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUDS...WILL BE WIDE POTENTIAL RANGE OF
TEMPS ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FIND A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN
DEWPOINTS WHICH COULD CRACK 70 DEGREES PRIOR TO DEEPER MIXING. AS
A RESULT...POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON HEATING. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF SOUNDINGS
FROM VARIOUS SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY STOUT CAP WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNLESS TEMPS ARE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
THAN EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO BE
BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE HEATED OUT CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THROUGH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH POTENTIAL AS WELL ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH HANG UP TOWARD HIGHWAY 14. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG INSTABILITY...AND THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A
MENTIONABLE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT COVERAGE COULD BE
LIMITED BY THE DEGREE OF CAPPING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY AS
WAVY ZONAL FLOW AROUND TO START...WITH SEVERAL SUGGESTIONS OF SOME
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS PRETTY RANDOM BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AND ONE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE THE LOWER LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP AS EACH PASSES AND INDUCES CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
SOUTHEASTWARD... THERE IS A GREATER IDEA BUILDING THAT RIDGING
WHICH BUILDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY HELP TO BRING A BRIEF
END TO CONVECTION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS MORE SO THAN
INDICATED IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE MOMENT...WILL USE A HIGHER
POP SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT LOWER NORTH TO INDICATE THE TREND. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT...AND FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENS... WOULD GET SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL JET
RETURN...AND WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...LIKELY THAT WOULD SEE SOME ENHANCED THREAT FOR
STORMS...PERHAPS WELL ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A FEW SEVERE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE INITIAL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW
READINGS WORKING BACK TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TOWARD MIDWEEK. FAIRLY
HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE SOLID POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER ISOLATED HIGH
BASED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AFTER
05/06Z. MORE FAVORED AREAS TO SEE THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXTEND FROM
KYKN...THROUGH KFSD...INTO KPQN/KBKX/KMML AREAS DURING THE 06Z-12Z
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY TSRA...HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25KT EXPECTED
04/17Z-05/01Z. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER 35-45KT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 04Z WHICH COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS TO SOME AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO THE STRONGER GUSTS TONIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
420 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
OFF TO A MILD START FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...LENDING CONFIDENCE
IN SIDING TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RUC13 BY FAR THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS FOR HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM 87 AT KSLB TO 99 FOR K9V9. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE
GIVEN ITS 925MB TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY
STAYING 3-5F LOWER THAN RUC13 PROJECTED MAX TEMP...MORE IN REALM OF
WARMER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 04/00Z NAM AND 03/12Z GEM. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL STAY IN CHECK AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY POTENTIAL DETRIMENT TO 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES TODAY WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET FOR FIREWORKS...BUT SHOULD STILL
BE IN 10-20 MPH RANGE GIVEN FORECAST WINDS OF 15-25KT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. MILD TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE MODEST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BENEATH DEVELOPING 35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STRONGEST OVERNIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN...WHERE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH COULD BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...STILL LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER GIVEN DRY
LAYER BELOW 700MB. HOWEVER...HARD TO ARGUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z...AHEAD OF
SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH TRACKS INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL SATURATION DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
AXIS ABOVE 700MB...SO WILL HANG ONTO NARROW AREA OF ISOLATED POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. BIGGER QUESTION IS
WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR FAR WEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
SD. CONSENSUS KEEPS BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME NEAR SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE AREA...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE MID 90S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...COULD SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REACHING CHAMBERLAIN AREA
PRIOR TO SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
WILL STILL FIND THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AREA SHEARS IN DEFORMATION ON BACK SIDE
OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW. STILL HAVE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT STILL JUST ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF MOIST NEUTRAL
TO GIVE SOME 100-300 J/KG CAPE. FORCING ENTIRELY MID LEVEL...AND
DIV Q SIGNATURE ALONG WITH THE 700 HPA THETA E ADVECTION INDICATE
WEAKENING POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN TOWARD MIDDAY...SO ENDED THREAT BY
15Z AFTER WORKING JUST A BIT EASTWARD. LIKELY THAT NET STORM
MOTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT EAST OF SOUTH GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE. REST
OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
OVER TODAY. QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
SUITE GIVEN THE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. BY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT...CWA COULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER
MCS...DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS SD. THIS AREA WILL LINGER
ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOON BE ON THE WEAKENING TREND WITH WAVE
MOVING PAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING MORE OFF SURFACE.
DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUDS...WILL BE WIDE POTENTIAL RANGE OF
TEMPS ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FIND A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN
DEWPOINTS WHICH COULD CRACK 70 DEGREES PRIOR TO DEEPER MIXING. AS
A RESULT...POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON HEATING. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF SOUNDINGS
FROM VARIOUS SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY STOUT CAP WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNLESS TEMPS ARE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
THAN EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO BE
BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE HEATED OUT CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THROUGH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH POTENTIAL AS WELL ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH HANG UP TOWARD HIGHWAY 14. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG INSTABILITY...AND THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A
MENTIONABLE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT COVERAGE COULD BE
LIMITED BY THE DEGREE OF CAPPING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY AS
WAVY ZONAL FLOW AROUND TO START...WITH SEVERAL SUGGESTIONS OF SOME
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS PRETTY RANDOM BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AND ONE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE THE LOWER LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP AS EACH PASSES AND INDUCES CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
SOUTHEASTWARD... THERE IS A GREATER IDEA BUILDING THAT RIDGING
WHICH BUILDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY HELP TO BRING A BRIEF
END TO CONVECTION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS MORE SO THAN
INDICATED IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE MOMENT...WILL USE A HIGHER
POP SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT LOWER NORTH TO INDICATE THE TREND. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT...AND FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENS... WOULD GET SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL JET
RETURN...AND WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...LIKELY THAT WOULD SEE SOME ENHANCED THREAT FOR
STORMS...PERHAPS WELL ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A FEW SEVERE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE INITIAL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW
READINGS WORKING BACK TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TOWARD MIDWEEK. FAIRLY
HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE SOLID POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO 10
TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK FORCING FROM THE LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANT
OUTFLOWS OF DYING THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER
OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EAST STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THROUGH EVENING.
FARTHER WEST...A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE NOTED ON RADAR NEAR
COMANCHE. THE AIR IS MUCH DRIER HERE AT THE SURFACE SO THIS
ACTIVITY IS BASED MUCH HIGHER. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LCL/S
AROUND 12000FT WITH ABOUT 500J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
FOR THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 80S AFTER
DARK FOR FIREWORKS.
ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO
SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE
INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS A LARGE
RESERVOIR OF 2 INCH PLUS PWS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE
UPPER LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LOW. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND
THEREFORE HAS MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF MOVES THE GULF LOW INLAND VERY QUICKLY AND
KEEPS A STRONGER RIDGE. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION AS THESE TYPES OF UPPER LOWS ARE GENERALLY SLOWER
MOVING WHEN ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE POOLS OF RICH GULF MOISTURE.
GENERALLY LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST OR INLAND CAN OFTEN TIMES HELP RELOCATE THE CENTER OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW IN WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENTS. IF THIS HAPPENS...ITS
MOVEMENT WOULD APPEAR CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE
ECMWF. RAIN CHANCES LOOK BEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE STATE...BUT ANYTIME WE GET A WEAK UPPER LOW AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY. BEST CHANCES FOR NORTH TEXAS APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HUMIDITY
WILL GO UP WITH TIME MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW NEXT WEEK TO ASSESS ITS
IMPACTS ON TEMPS/RAIN CHANCES.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 96 73 96 74 / 10 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 70 97 71 98 73 / 20 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 66 92 67 93 71 / 20 10 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 69 93 70 94 72 / 10 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 67 94 70 95 72 / 10 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 75 97 76 97 77 / 10 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 69 95 71 96 73 / 20 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 71 96 73 97 73 / 20 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 68 97 70 97 73 / 20 5 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 69 96 71 96 72 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
557 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY A
COMBINATION OF DEWPOINT MIXING...START OF COOLING NOW BEING PAST THE
TIME OF PEAK HEATING...AND OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS PUSHING
EAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
JAMES BAY SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TWO EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGES NOTED ONE ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS...EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER
NOTED OFF THE EAST COAST...EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS PLACED A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SLOWLY SAGGING EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
ANCHORED OFF OF THE EAST COAST...EXTENDING EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EARLY EVENING...KEEPING A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS A ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE
OFF AFTER WE LOSE SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. RUC ANALYSIS
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH NO
CAP IN PLACE. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WE COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. AFTER
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35
MPH IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER CAPPING IN PLACE VERSUS
VS...4TH OF JULY AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES BETWEEN
800 AND 900 MB AND SHOULD HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. THIS SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FIRING BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON THIS.
PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM
09Z TO 12Z THEN LINGERING FROM 12Z TO 15Z OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE WAVE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE TROUGH STALLS OUT ON SATURDAY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND STARTS TO ACT AS A WARM FROM AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE HIGHS PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1500
TO 1900 J/KG RANGE. THERE REALLY ISNT ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING TO
LATCH ONTO FOR STORMS TO BE TRIGGER BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO GO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A STRONGER WAVE PUSHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT RAMPS UP OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EDGING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLY AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOLDS OVER
THE EAST AND FOCUS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS FOCUSED INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 160 PERCENT
OF NORMAL AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACH 4KM...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AGAIN...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON SHEAR
PROFILES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WARM FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE AREA SOME UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND RACES EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASES TO TO
25 TO 35 KTS....SO KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS TIMEFRAME.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND AND LOW MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
THE BRIEF SHOWER THAT IMPACTED LSE BETWEEN 19-20Z HAS SHIFTED OFF
TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN BEHIND IT...THE SAME DRY AIR
THAT HAS KEPT RST DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE DRY AIR STAYS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THIS SAME COLD FRONT HAS BEEN TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE TAF SITES. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT BY 01Z. IF THEY WENT NEARLY CALM
AT RST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WOULD BE NEEDED WITH 30-35 KT WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR 1000 FT ABOVE THE GROUND. HOWEVER...WINDS JUST LOOK
TOO STRONG TO MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAF. BOTH TAF
SITES WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTS OF 20-25KT ARE LIKELY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMES
BAY SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TWO EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGES NOTED ONE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER NOTED OFF
THE EAST COAST...EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A SHORTWAVE
WAS NOTED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
PLACED A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SLOWLY SAGGING EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OFF OF
THE EAST COAST...EXTENDING EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EARLY EVENING...KEEPING A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSN. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS A ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE
OFF AFTER WE LOSE SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. RUC ANALYSIS
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH NO
CAP IN PLACE. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WE COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. AFTER
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35
MPH IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER CAPPING IN PLACE VERSUS
VS...4TH OF JULY AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES BETWEEN
800 AND 900 MB AND SHOULD HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. THIS SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FIRING BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON THIS.
PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM
09Z TO 12Z THEN LINGERING FROM 12Z TO 15Z OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE WAVE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE TROUGH STALLS OUT ON SATURDAY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND STARTS TO ACT AS A WARM FROM AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE HIGHS PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1500
TO 1900 J/KG RANGE. THERE REALLY ISNT ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING TO
LATCH ONTO FOR STORMS TO BE TRIGGER BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO GO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A STRONGER WAVE PUSHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT RAMPS UP OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EDGING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLY AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOLDS OVER
THE EAST AND FOCUS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS FOCUSED INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 160 PERCENT
OF NORMAL AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACH 4KM...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AGAIN...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON SHEAR
PROFILES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WARM FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE AREA SOME UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND RACES EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASES TO TO
25 TO 35 KTS....SO KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS TIMEFRAME.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND AND LOW MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TODAY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF REGION
THOUGH SOME HIGH BASED CU COULD FORM AT LSE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE
16 TO 20KT RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH
SKIES REMAINING CLEAR...BUT THEN PICK BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1237 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
MODIFIED MORNING GRB SOUNDING YIELDED SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS STILL HOLDING IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN WANING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST RUN OF
THE HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL
TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER ABOUT 19Z
OR SO...WITH A FEW SPITS OF QPF. GIVEN THE INSTABLITY...WAS NOT
COMFORTABLE LEAVING FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON...THUS ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO GRID GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CU STARTING TO POP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
SOUTHERN TAIL OF WEAK DISTURBANCE DRIFING EAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IF IT DEVELOPS.
ALSO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE NORTH
OF SHEBOYGAN TO WASHINGTON ISLAND. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTIUES TO
SHOW AREAS OF FOG JUST OFFSHORE FROM MANITOWOC NORTH...WITH DRIFT
TOWRAD THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS SHOWING SOME FAIRLY DENSE FOG AT
TIMES LATE THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO HOIST MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR FOG FOR THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF WISCONSIN BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONT AND WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES. EXPECT NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PERIOD. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD HIGHS MUCH
BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR IS A MAJOR
QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 20Z...BUT EXPECTED TO
BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN RHI TAF.
SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG... OVER FOX VALLEY INCLUDING GRB
AND ATW AFTER 09Z FRIDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
EAST OF MASON CITY AS WELL AS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR LA
CROSSE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND ON RADAR WHICH
COINCIDES WITH SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO
HAVE BEEN FORCED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE
REGION AND IS BETWEEN A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MAIN CUT OFF LOW IN WESTERN
MISSOURI. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OR TROUGHING THAT IS HELPING TO FOCUS SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY AT 925MB WHERE THE 04.13Z RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER RH RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOWARD
THE TWIN CITIES. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LONG WILL THIS
CONVECTION HOLD ON FOR AND WHETHER ANY CHANCES NEED TO BE ADDED ON
FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. 04.13Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS
AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 04.12Z HRRR MIRRORS THIS THINKING AND
DEVELOPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WIND SHIFT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD ADDING AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY NO MEANS DOES THIS
LOOK LIKE AN ALL DAY WASH OUT...BUT RATHER SOME VERY BRIEF PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
AT 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN A BROKEN 6-12K DECK OF
CLOUDS THERE IS NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE 04.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...ML CAPES CLIMB INTO 600 TO
1000 J/KG IN THE NAM/WRF AND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS EVEN GENERATES SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WITH NO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OR LIFT AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. LIKE MUCH OF THIS WEEK...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL MIX UP TO 750 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...ML CAPES QUICKLY
FALLS TO LESS THAN 100 J/KG. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...IT
WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT EVENING TO WATCH AREA FIREWORK DISPLAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
MISSOURI WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WITH THIS TRACK...MUCH OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE AREA WILL NOT BE INFLUENCED BY THIS
SYSTEM...THE 04.00Z MODELS DO SHOW THAT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO MINNESOTA...THE NAM
WAS ABLE TO GENERATE A COLD POOL WHICH ALLOWED THE FRONT TO SINK
SOUTH INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAS MUCH WEAKER 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...THUS THE FRONT STAY MUCH FURTHER NORTH. OVERALL...
PREFERRED THE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.
FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE 700 TO
500 MB FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE AREA AND ML CAPES OF 1 TO 2K EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...THERE IS
NOT MUCH FORCING. HOWEVER WITH CAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 2 TO
4K J/KG AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT. BOTH THE
0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THERE BEING LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON
WHERE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCATED. AS A RESULT...KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.8 TO
2.2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 4.5 KM...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TODAY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF REGION
THOUGH SOME HIGH BASED CU COULD FORM AT LSE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE
16 TO 20KT RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH
SKIES REMAINING CLEAR...BUT THEN PICK BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1132 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
UPDATED TO ADD SHORT TERM PORTION FOR MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
MODIFIED MORNING GRB SOUNDING YIELDED SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS STILL HOLDING IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN WANING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST RUN OF
THE HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL
TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER ABOUT 19Z
OR SO...WITH A FEW SPITS OF QPF. GIVEN THE INSTABLITY...WAS NOT
COMFORTABLE LEAVING FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON...THUS ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO GRID GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CU STARTING TO POP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
SOUTHERN TAIL OF WEAK DISTURBANCE DRIFING EAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IF IT DEVELOPS.
ALSO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE NORTH
OF SHEBOYGAN TO WASHINGTON ISLAND. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTIUES TO
SHOW AREAS OF FOG JUST OFFSHORE FROM MANITOWOC NORTH...WITH DRIFT
TOWRAD THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS SHOWING SOME FAIRLY DENSE FOG AT
TIMES LATE THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO HOIST MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR FOG FOR THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF WISCONSIN BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONT AND WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES. EXPECT NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PERIOD. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD HIGHS MUCH
BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR IS A MAJOR
QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
SCATTERED IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND CIGS WILL LINGER TO AROUND
15Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT PATCHY MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG LIKELY AGAIN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1018 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...SUBSIDENCE OVER AREA HAS CLEARED SKIES AND DISSIPATED
FOG OVER ALL AREAS EXCEPT LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS FROM SHEBOYGAN
NORTHWARD. THIS AREA OF FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REFLECTING WHAT ALL MODELS SHOW...TAKING THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF AREA BY 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH COLUMN DRYING AND LITTLE TO NO OMEGA. BUT
NAM...RAP AND HRRR LOW-LAYER MOISTURE/VSBY FORECASTS KEEP THE FOG
OVER THE LAKE JUST OFFSHORE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH PARALLEL TO THE SHORE BY 18Z. WILL KEEP FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT NEAR-SHORE LOCATIONS COULD SEE FOG
DRIFT IN FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SOUTH SFC WINDS COULD TURN INLAND WITH WARMING INLAND TEMPS.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB 4 TO 5 DEGREES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH FULL MIXING
PUTTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WHICH WILL BE SEEN IN THE WEST. WILL
FOLLOW COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE FAR EAST THAT STAY CLOSER TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST HIGHS. THE 500-600 J/KG CAPE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON PREDICATED ON LOW TO MID 60 DEW
POINTS...BUT GIVEN CURRENT UPSTREAM DEW POINTS CLOSER TO LOWER MOS
GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND LACK OF FORCING REFLECTED IN MODELS WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT...BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AT PEAK HEATING.
A QUIET AND CALM NIGHT COULD BRING FOG AND HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG IN
USUAL LOCATIONS...GIVEN NEAR-SFC WINDS AROUND 14 KTS ALLOWING SOME
TURBULENT MIXING BUT LIGHT FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PATCHY
DENSE IF SFC WINDS STAY TOTALLY DECOUPLED AND CALM.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE PROGGD TO BE EITHER BISECTING THE
CWA IN A NNE/SSW FASHION OR ACROSS NW WI. PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION
IN MISSOURI. 850 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
925 TEMPS RAMP UP INTO THE 21-23C RANGE. LOW LEVEL FLOW
ANTICYCLONIC. ALL PROGS GOING DRY SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR LOW PLODS EAST INTO SRN IL. GEM SOLUTION HAS THE
CIRCULATION FURTHERS NORTH INTO NE IL. 12Z ECMWF WARMED 925 TEMPS TO
23-25C WHILE NAM AND GFS SHOW 21-23C. TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. SOME CAPE BUT AGAIN PLENTY OF DRY AIR
NOTED IN THE SOUNDING WITH NO LOW LEVEL TRIGGER TO LATCH ONTO.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECT BUILDING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS AS TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS
TO THE EAST. THE NAM/GFS AND GEM SHOW SUSPICIOUS VORTS WITHIN THIS
OVERALL RIDGING PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTED A SLOWER ARRIVAL TO
RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THE 00Z RUN HAS COME IN
SHOWING PRECIP ARRIVING ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM
KEEPS THIS INITIAL PRECIP ACROSS NE WI. SO COLLABORATIVELY THE
DECISION WAS MADE TO STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING ALLOWING FOR SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND JETLETS TO AFFECT THE
AREA. BUFKIT SHOWING CAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AT TIMES. DEW POINTS
CREEPING INTO THE LOW 70S WITH 850 MILLIBAR SOUTHWEST FLOW FEEDING
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/SPEED
CONVERGENCE NOTED. MAY END UP SEEING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH
MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. 250 JET CORE JUST NORTH SUGGESTS SOME RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT ACTION. ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH WEDNESDAY FROPA ENDING
SHRA/TSRA EARLIER WHILE GFS HANGS ONTO THE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AND EVENING.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REFLECTING WHAT ALL MODELS
SHOW...TAKING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH COLUMN DRYING
AND LITTLE TO NO OMEGA. BUT NAM...RAP AND HRRR LOW-LAYER
MOISTURE/VSBY FORECASTS KEEP THE FOG OVER THE LAKE JUST OFFSHORE
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH PARALLEL TO THE SHORE BY
18Z. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT TAF SITES NEAR THE LAKE COULD
SEE FOG DRIFT IN FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOUTH SFC WINDS COULD TURN INLAND WITH
WARMING INLAND TEMPS. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND FEW-SCT SKY COULD BRING LIGHT FOG BACK TONIGHT BUT
COUNTING ON NEAR-SFC WINDS AROUND 14 KTS ALLOWING SOME TURBULENT
MIXING BUT LIGHT FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME DENSE IF SFC
WINDS STAY TOTALLY DECOUPLED AND CALM.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SLB
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...SLB
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
921 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 921 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
EAST OF MASON CITY AS WELL AS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR LA
CROSSE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND ON RADAR WHICH
COINCIDES WITH SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO
HAVE BEEN FORCED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE
REGION AND IS BETWEEN A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MAIN CUT OFF LOW IN WESTERN
MISSOURI. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OR TROUGHING THAT IS HELPING TO FOCUS SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY AT 925MB WHERE THE 04.13Z RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER RH RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOWARD
THE TWIN CITIES. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LONG WILL THIS
CONVECTION HOLD ON FOR AND WHETHER ANY CHANCES NEED TO BE ADDED ON
FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. 04.13Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS
AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 04.12Z HRRR MIRRORS THIS THINKING AND
DEVELOPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WIND SHIFT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD ADDING AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY NO MEANS DOES THIS
LOOK LIKE AN ALL DAY WASH OUT...BUT RATHER SOME VERY BRIEF PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
AT 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN A BROKEN 6-12K DECK OF
CLOUDS THERE IS NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE 04.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...ML CAPES CLIMB INTO 600 TO
1000 J/KG IN THE NAM/WRF AND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS EVEN GENERATES SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WITH NO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OR LIFT AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. LIKE MUCH OF THIS WEEK...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL MIX UP TO 750 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...ML CAPES QUICKLY
FALLS TO LESS THAN 100 J/KG. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...IT
WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT EVENING TO WATCH AREA FIREWORK DISPLAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
MISSOURI WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WITH THIS TRACK...MUCH OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE AREA WILL NOT BE INFLUENCED BY THIS
SYSTEM...THE 04.00Z MODELS DO SHOW THAT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO MINNESOTA...THE NAM
WAS ABLE TO GENERATE A COLD POOL WHICH ALLOWED THE FRONT TO SINK
SOUTH INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAS MUCH WEAKER 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...THUS THE FRONT STAY MUCH FURTHER NORTH. OVERALL...
PREFERRED THE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.
FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE 700 TO
500 MB FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE AREA AND ML CAPES OF 1 TO 2K EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...THERE IS
NOT MUCH FORCING. HOWEVER WITH CAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 2 TO
4K J/KG AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT. BOTH THE
0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THERE BEING LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON
WHERE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCATED. AS A RESULT...KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.8 TO
2.2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 4.5 KM...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT...AND
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS -
ESPECIALLY AT KRST. DEEP...LIGHT WIND FIELD ALSO GOES AWAY...WHICH
WILL BE AN INHIBITOR FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REFLECTING WHAT ALL MODELS SHOW...TAKING THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF AREA BY 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH COLUMN DRYING AND LITTLE TO NO OMEGA. BUT
NAM...RAP AND HRRR LOW-LAYER MOISTURE/VSBY FORECASTS KEEP THE FOG
OVER THE LAKE JUST OFFSHORE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH PARALLEL TO THE SHORE BY 18Z. WILL KEEP FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT NEAR-SHORE LOCATIONS COULD SEE FOG
DRIFT IN FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SOUTH SFC WINDS COULD TURN INLAND WITH WARMING INLAND TEMPS.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB 4 TO 5 DEGREES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH FULL MIXING
PUTTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WHICH WILL BE SEEN IN THE WEST. WILL
FOLLOW COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE FAR EAST THAT STAY CLOSER TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST HIGHS. THE 500-600 J/KG CAPE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON PREDICATED ON LOW TO MID 60 DEW
POINTS...BUT GIVEN CURRENT UPSTREAM DEW POINTS CLOSER TO LOWER MOS
GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND LACK OF FORCING REFLECTED IN MODELS WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT...BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AT PEAK HEATING.
A QUIET AND CALM NIGHT COULD BRING FOG AND HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG IN
USUAL LOCATIONS...GIVEN NEAR-SFC WINDS AROUND 14 KTS ALLOWING SOME
TURBULENT MIXING BUT LIGHT FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PATCHY
DENSE IF SFC WINDS STAY TOTALLY DECOUPLED AND CALM.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE PROGGD TO BE EITHER BISECTING THE
CWA IN A NNE/SSW FASHION OR ACROSS NW WI. PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION
IN MISSOURI. 850 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
925 TEMPS RAMP UP INTO THE 21-23C RANGE. LOW LEVEL FLOW
ANTICYCLONIC. ALL PROGS GOING DRY SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR LOW PLODS EAST INTO SRN IL. GEM SOLUTION HAS THE
CIRCULATION FURTHERS NORTH INTO NE IL. 12Z ECMWF WARMED 925 TEMPS TO
23-25C WHILE NAM AND GFS SHOW 21-23C. TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. SOME CAPE BUT AGAIN PLENTY OF DRY AIR
NOTED IN THE SOUNDING WITH NO LOW LEVEL TRIGGER TO LATCH ONTO.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECT BUILDING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS AS TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS
TO THE EAST. THE NAM/GFS AND GEM SHOW SUSPICIOUS VORTS WITHIN THIS
OVERALL RIDGING PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTED A SLOWER ARRIVAL TO
RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THE 00Z RUN HAS COME IN
SHOWING PRECIP ARRIVING ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM
KEEPS THIS INITIAL PRECIP ACROSS NE WI. SO COLLABORATIVELY THE
DECISION WAS MADE TO STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING ALLOWING FOR SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND JETLETS TO AFFECT THE
AREA. BUFKIT SHOWING CAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AT TIMES. DEW POINTS
CREEPING INTO THE LOW 70S WITH 850 MILLIBAR SOUTHWEST FLOW FEEDING
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/SPEED
CONVERGENCE NOTED. MAY END UP SEEING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH
MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. 250 JET CORE JUST NORTH SUGGESTS SOME RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT ACTION. ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH WEDNESDAY FROPA ENDING
SHRA/TSRA EARLIER WHILE GFS HANGS ONTO THE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REFLECTING WHAT ALL MODELS
SHOW...TAKING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH COLUMN DRYING
AND LITTLE TO NO OMEGA. BUT NAM...RAP AND HRRR LOW-LAYER
MOISTURE/VSBY FORECASTS KEEP THE FOG OVER THE LAKE JUST OFFSHORE
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH PARALLEL TO THE SHORE BY
18Z. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT TAF SITES NEAR THE LAKE COULD
SEE FOG DRIFT IN FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOUTH SFC WINDS COULD TURN INLAND WITH
WARMING INLAND TEMPS. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND FEW-SCT SKY COULD BRING LIGHT FOG BACK TONIGHT BUT
COUNTING ON NEAR-SFC WINDS AROUND 14 KTS ALLOWING SOME TURBULENT
MIXING BUT LIGHT FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME DENSE IF SFC
WINDS STAY TOTALLY DECOUPLED AND CALM.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
258 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...AS SHOWN BY WIDE SWATH OF 850MB DEWPOINTS
AROUND 15C FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST
OF THIS MOISTURE HAS REMAINED EAST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER SOME OF IT WILL GET PULLED A BIT FURTHER
WESTWARD TODAY AS PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI FINALLY
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM EARLIER THIS
EVENING SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW AROUND MEMPHIS TENNESSEE. THIS FEATURE
HAS PULLED QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AND IS BEGINNING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. 04Z HRRR PREDICTED THIS DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 06Z AND 07Z
QUITE NICELY...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST. SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
N/NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CURRENT TRAJECTORIES KEEPING
THE BULK OF THE RAIN ACROSS FAR SE ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA THIS
MORNING. AS UPPER LOW/COOL POOL ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON MOST HIGH-RES
MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED EAST OF
I-55. FOR POP FORECAST TODAY...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FAR SE KILX CWA WHERE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL IMPACT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE AS FAR WEST AS I-55. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST THIS EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD
OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AS
IT GRADUALLY GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD BY PREVAILING JET STREAM OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER FORCING
REMAINING IN PLACE AND NO SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
RISING HEIGHTS AND OTHER MITIGATING FACTORS...MODELS INSIST THAT
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT THINK SUNDAY WILL MAINLY BE A WARM
AND DRY DAY.
THINGS BEGIN TO GET A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BECOMES POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PARTICULAR PATTERN HAS BEEN QUITE COMMON OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS...AND HAS LED TO COPIOUS RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THIS PATTERN ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING
EXACT DETAILS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME PARTS
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WOULD
BE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
FAVORABLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST MODELS TRYING TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA OVERNIGHT THEN DROPPING REMNANTS INTO
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ACCORDINGLY...WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING
FURTHER E/SE ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTER ANOTHER MCS TRACKS E/SE OUT OF IOWA ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM-SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN FURTHER EAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
INCLUDE ONLY THE FAR SE CWA. AFTER THAT...HAVE GONE DRY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS RESIDED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TERMINALS WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE 06Z TAF
VALID TIME AND TRACK THROUGH ILLINOIS. A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS SPILLING MORE HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS IS
ACTUALLY A GOOD THING FROM AN AVIATION WEATHER PERSPECTIVE. THE
CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE WELL INTO THE VFR CATEGORY...AND
THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
DENSE FOG THREAT TO A MINIMUM. WITH THAT THINKING IN MIND...HAVE
KEPT VSBYS MVFR AT ALL BUT KCMI WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A
BIT RICHER. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
TRACK...KEEPING MOST OF THE TERMINALS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...HAVE MENTIONED A VCSH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT KCMI AND
KDEC. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS...SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BAK
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
MUCH AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE EVENINGS...DIURNAL CLOUDS
HAVE FADED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. BY AND
LARGE...GIVEN THE STAGNANT PATTERN...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS IF SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. FOG BECAME PRETTY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH FOG
WAS ONLY PATCHY THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. DEW POINTS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST FOG WILL
BE AT LEAST AS BAD TONIGHT AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH ON HEAVY FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN
FACT...THE HRRR NAILED CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT AND IS LESS BULLISH
FOR TONIGHT. SREF PROGS ALSO SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY OF DENSE
FOG.
SO...CONSIDERING THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING ARE A LITTLE DRIER/BETTER
MIXED THAN LAST NIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
LAST NIGHT. GOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. PLAN TO UPDATE
FOR THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TRENDS...MOST NOTABLY TO REMOVE POPS
DUE TO THE MINIMAL PCPN COVERAGE UPSTREAM AND ITS STRONGLY DIURNAL
CHARACTER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
BAK
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS RESIDED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TERMINALS WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE 06Z TAF
VALID TIME AND TRACK THROUGH ILLINOIS. A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS SPILLING MORE HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS IS
ACTUALLY A GOOD THING FROM AN AVIATION WEATHER PERSPECTIVE. THE
CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE WELL INTO THE VFR CATEGORY...AND
THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
DENSE FOG THREAT TO A MINIMUM. WITH THAT THINKING IN MIND...HAVE
KEPT VSBYS MVFR AT ALL BUT KCMI WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A
BIT RICHER. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
TRACK...KEEPING MOST OF THE TERMINALS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...HAVE MENTIONED A VCSH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT KCMI AND
KDEC. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS...SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BAK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
THE NORTH...STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PESKY UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI FORECAST BY MODELS TO SLOWLY
TRACK EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL IL ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE
OF THE WEAK FEATURE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL/SW IL BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH RESPECT TO FOG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LIGHT WIND REGIME COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-55.
COMBINATION OF REMNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WORKING BACK NORTH AHEAD OF THE FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACRS THE EAST WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE A BIT
FURTHER WEST DURING THE DAY. WARMEST TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE
ACRS THE WEST...WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HOLDING TEMPS
DOWN OVER THE EAST. MET GUID KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S
OVER EXTREME EAST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTN.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH MORE OF A METMAV COMPROMISE AND PUSH READINGS
CLOSE TO 80. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS UPPER WAVE SHOULD EDGE TO OUR
EAST BY 06Z SUNDAY TAKING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. WILL CARRY
LOW CHANCE POPS OVER OUR FAR EAST SATURDAY EVENING IN CASE THE SYSTEM
IS SLOWER IN MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN.
ASSUMING THE UPPER LOW IS OFF TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY...OUR FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESS...AT LEAST COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING AROUND HERE FOR THE PAST WEEK. THE STRONGER FLOW WILL
EDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AS 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A FRONT THROUGH
THE MIDWEST LATE WED/EARLY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL HELP DRAG A WEAK FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES ON
MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOT VERY GOOD WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF
THE MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VERY MOIST AXIS SITUATED JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST SURFACE DEW POINTS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ARE AROUND 70 DEGREES ACRS THE NORTH...AND IN THE TROPICAL
LOW TO MID 70S ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME STATIONARY JUST
TO OUR NORTH WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
/POSSIBLY LOW 90S. PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL AOA 2 INCHES ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD START TO EDGE
BACK NORTH LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIG INTO THE LOWER
LAKES JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRONGER FLOW AT 500 MB TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH INTO LATE TUESDAY
BEFORE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
LAKES BY WED. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COOL
FRONT EDGES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY. SEVERAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING UPPER PATTERN WON`T BE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR GETTING THE FRONT OUT OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK SO
CONFIDENCE ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND POPS LATE WED/THURSDAY NOT
VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS INTO CENTRAL IL
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...SO DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND CONVECTION...WE COULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 BOTH DAYS. FOR NOW...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AROUND FROM CONVECTION IN OR CLOSE TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS...SO WILL GO A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE HIGHS ON TUE/WED...HOWEVER SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHICH WILL DRIVE APPARENT TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 90S. STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE WEAK COOL FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES LOWERING
A FEW DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
253 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
ELEVATED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO
THE AREA AGAIN...THIS TIME ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE RUC AND
HRRR SHOW MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SUPPORT FOR
THIS CONVECTION AS FAR EAST AS ABOUT THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THRU
MID-MORNING BEFORE WANING AGAIN BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND WILL TAKE A
MODIFIED PERSISTENCE TYPE APPROACH FOR MAXS WITH DIURNALLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AS WELL EACH DAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS COULD DRIFT CLOSE TO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS AS WELL...THOUGH WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND HANDLE ON
A SHORT TERM BASIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES A TOP THE ELONGATED WEST-EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW A MODEST COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH INTO KANSAS WITH VERY
SLIGHT AND RATHER BRIEF COOLING POSSIBLE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
GOING FORECAST WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS
WELL...BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND HEAT BUILD BACK
IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS...THINKING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 08-16Z...DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
EASTERN FRINGE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. CONSEQUENTLY...VCSH STILL
LOOKS GOOD FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE VCTS AND/OR TS INSERTION. NOT ANTICIPATING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. OTHERWISE...RATHER DENSE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED STRONG/GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 96 73 98 74 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 97 73 99 74 / 20 10 10 10
NEWTON 95 72 97 74 / 20 10 10 10
ELDORADO 95 72 97 73 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 95 73 97 75 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 99 71 101 72 / 20 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 99 71 101 72 / 20 10 10 10
SALINA 98 73 100 74 / 20 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 98 73 100 74 / 20 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 94 71 96 73 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 92 70 94 72 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 91 69 93 72 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 93 71 95 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 06 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME TAFS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE 06.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED 60 KT WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FROM KBOI TO KRIV. ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM, NORTHERLY FLOW OF 40 KT WAS OBSERVED AT KDDC.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE CONUS RAOB NETWORK EXTENDED FROM KJAN TO
KAPX WITH AN ABSOLUTE PEAK MAGNITUDE AROUND 100 KT OVER KILX. @ 500
HPA, THE UBIQUITOUS ANTICYCLONE WEAKENED AND MOVED A BIT EAST WITH
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AROUND 590 DM OVER KFGZ. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WERE A LITTLE LESS WARM AS WELL WITH -7 DEG AT THE AFOREMENTIONED UL
SITE. DOWNSTREAM, AN OPENED UP TROF EXTENDED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. @ 700 HPA, KDDC TEMPERATURES WERE UP TO 11 DEG C COMPARED
TO 8 DEG C AT 05.00Z. LOWER DOWN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, THE CONTINUED
WARMING WAS PREVALENT AT 850 HPA AT KDDC WITH OBSERVED AT 27 DEG C UP
FROM 23 DEG C 24 HOURS AGO. AT THE SFC, A LEE TROF WAS NOTED ACROSS
FAR EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. INVEST 94L WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BASIN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA
WAS AT 17.1N 112.6W @ 06.03Z AND TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS AT 16.7N
103.5W @ 06.03Z
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL START OUT BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 18G28KT AS HAPPENED THURSDAY EVENING, THEN WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 10-12 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE
AND FLOWING CIRRUS IN THE 25 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES, I THINK THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO MINIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS OF THE RUC AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT LOWS
IN THIS RANGE. WINDS WILL HELP SLIGHTLY IN KEEPING THE
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
ON SATURDAY, IT LOOKS HOTTER AS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS BRING IN
THE +32C ISOTHERM AT 850MB AND +15C AIR AT 700MB INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A DOWNSLOPE
AFFECT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND HIGHER LAYERS WILL
KICK IN. EVEN THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS CEILINGS OVERHEAD,
MUCH OF THE CIRRUS WILL BE THIN AND NOT NEGATIVELY EFFECT SURFACE
WARMING. HIGHS AROUND 100F WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. OTHER AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WILL STILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 90S.
THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN BORDER
NEAR COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG
AND NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
ALSO THERE IS A WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
00Z SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ADD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A FEW STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE EXPAND OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUT ALSO TURN RELATIVELY FLAT AS IT ELONGATES
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAVE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS AT THE TAIL END OF THE WESTERLIES WITH JUST ENOUGH
CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW TO DEEPEN THE LEE TROUGH ALONG THE
KANSAS...COLORADO BORDER. IN ADDITION...A MODEST 60 KNOT UPPER JET
STREAK OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL AID IN PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT THEN STALLING NEAR THE
KANSAS...NEBRASKA BORDER BY EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL WARM
QUICKLY UNDER THIS REGIME AS 700 HPA TEMPERATURES ABOVE 14 C
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WITH A RESULTANT STRONG CAPPING ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER. NONETHELESS...BOTH SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING WILL SEE HIGHER BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH OR FARTHER WEST OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN REGIONS OF
COLORADO...MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR AT BEST SCATTERED AT TIMES WITH LOW
PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXISTING MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
283 BOTH EVENINGS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
MINIMAL AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND DO NOT SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS BUT INVERTED V PROFILES COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURE WISE...STRONG INSOLATION WILL
PERMIT MIXING UP 700 HPA WITH RESULTANT AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE A NEAR COPY OF SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE FLAT BUT ELONGATED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
LEE TROUGH SITTING ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER WITH KANSAS. WITH
700 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND 14C AND MIXING UP TO THIS LEVEL
LIKELY...HIGHS AROUND 100 APPEAR POSSIBLE YET AGAIN. IN
ADDITION...SIMILAR TO BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF A
LIBERAL TO WAKEENEY LINE AS STORMS FORMING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO MOVE SLOWLY EAST.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BOTH AMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIP INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIALLY THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER 100+ DEGREE DAY OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SORE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS EXIST BEHIND THE FRONT BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH A DECENT
SETUP FOR A NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. NONETHELESS...THE RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK EAST INTO THE
PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING QUICKLY NORTH OF KANSAS.
THIS WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
HIGHS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXISTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
KDDC WSR-88D SHOWS RETURNED ECHOS DIMINISHING WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.
THIS WAS THE FIRST CONCERN, SO DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS AS CONVECTION WEAKENS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW, BUT WILL LEAVE TS/CB GROUPS OUT FOR
NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF SAID
ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK GOING THROUGH TAF
PD WITH VFR CIGS. WIND VECTORS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE 15-22 KT DURING
THE 15Z-23Z TIME FRAME VIA MIXING ETC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 100 70 100 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 69 100 69 99 / 20 10 20 10
EHA 68 98 70 97 / 30 20 20 20
LBL 66 100 70 100 / 20 10 10 10
HYS 69 100 71 102 / 10 10 10 10
P28 69 100 73 100 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
459 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
A VERY MILD EARLY MORNING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH MANY TEMPS
STILL IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST
TO 20+KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER MN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NW
ONTARIO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE RAP AND THE LOCAL RAPID
UPDATE WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST THAT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE WEAK Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT PASSES BY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
DRY AIRMASS PER THE 00Z MPX AND GRB RAOBS...AND BEST SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN LAKE...THERE IS NOT
GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
JUST SOUTH OF DLH...PCPN CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT FROM IWD TO THE
KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED
POPS THIS MORNING FOR THIS REGION. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO SAGS SOUTHWARD TODAY...THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NEXT WEAK WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. MLCAPE VALUES
RISE TO AROUND 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST...BUT THE
CAPE IS FAIRLY SKINNY WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF ONLY AROUND 6
C/KM. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND/OR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY HELP
ENHANCE LOCAL BULK SHEAR...OVERALL THE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE LOW
WITH ONLY 15-20 KT OF DEEP SHEAR. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST...BUT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE WEAKENING 850MB WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AS THE UPPER VORT
PASSES BY JUST TO THE NORTH. IN FACT...MANY OF THE HIGHER RES NWP
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE HEAVIEST PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MARQUETTE AND
BARAGA COUNTIES. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES BY...EXPECT WEAK DRY
ADVECTION AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AT 850MB ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...HELPING TO BRING ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS GENERALLY TO AN END IN THOSE AREAS. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BETTER MOISTURE REMAINING FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW TO NW WISCONSIN...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR THE WESTERN 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA FOR THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME TYPE OF LULL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN SUN MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL IN THE KEWEENAW...WEAK UPSLOPE E OR SE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ANY RAINFALL
AND ALSO COOLER AIR OFF THE LAKE...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FROM CMX
TO COPPER HARBOR TONIGHT. WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO THERE
IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RAIN DIMINISHES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...THUS MAKING IT
MUCH MORE HUMID THAN FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...IT WILL LIKELY FEEL
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WORSE THAN FRIDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.
TEMPS WILL STILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO FORM WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP AREAS NEAR THE SHORELINE
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL MOVE FROM SRN
MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH TRAILING
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. ONGOING CONVECTION FROM NE MN INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW WI MAY MOVE INTO W UPPER MI IN THE MORNING. IF
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOP...AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
COULD CLIMB TO 1000-1500 J/KG SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SCT/NMRS
SHRA/TSRA WITH THE TROUGH...OUTFLOW AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TO 30 KT WILL BE
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONGER/SVR STORMS. WITH PWAT VALUES
TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PCPN COVERAGE WAS LIMITED AS THE GFS/GEM
AND HIGHER RES MODELS WERE SIGNFICANTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
AFTERNOON PCPN COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. ANY EVENING SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN AND
THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH.
MON...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF UPPER MI...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WEAK SHRTWVS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THAT COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PCPN KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
TUE-FRI...THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
QVECTOR CONV AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY FROM TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED. ALTHOUGH THE GFS DISPLAYED CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...THE GEM/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF KEEPING STRONGER
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WOULD DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD UPPER MI AND LIMIT PCPN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS. A RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED BY THU WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE AND TRAILING WEAK SHRTWVS AROUND
THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
AS A LO PRES TROF APRCHS FM THE NW EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT LLWS TO
PERSIST UNDER TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER SW FLOW IN THE PRESENCE
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING THAT PUTS A CAP ON SFC WIND SPEEDS. SOME -SHRA
AND POSSIBLY A TS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROF MIGHT IMPACT IWD AND
PERHAPS CMX TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS SHOWN
ON THE 00Z MPX AND GRB RAOBS/RECENT SFC OBS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS
WL PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY -SHRA MAKE IT TO THOSE SITES. THE LO PRES
TROF IS FCST TO STALL OVER NW UPR MI ON SAT...SO MORE SHRA/TS MAY
DVLP AT ALL 3 SITES IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST CHC FOR HEAVIER SHRA WL BE AT CMX CLOSER
TO THE POSITION OF THE TROF. ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIER SHRA AT ANY OF THE SITES...THE BEST CHC FOR LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS WL BE AT CMX...WHICH MIGHT BE JUST N OF THE SFC TROF AND
WITHIN A SHALLOW COOLER WEDGE OF AIR THAT WOULD ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLDS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ESPECIALLY ON
THE CMAN STATIONS OR LARGER SHIPS. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT
TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THOUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY THEN DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS FOR STRONGER NW WINDS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.
DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1200 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2013
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. An upper trof will continue to move across the
area overnight. With enough low level moisture present, and CAPE
values 600 to 800 J/kg across a broad portion of the county warning
area, thunderstorms have developed and will continue to develop for
the next few hours. These storms have generally been producing brief
heavy rain and small hail. While convective activity should decrease
after midnight, HRRR analysis and the latest RUC both indicate
thunderstorms continuing beyond midnight, especially over Judith
Basin and Fergus counties. Overnight temperatures look good.
Emanuel
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 0600Z.
VFR conditions will prevail with MVFR conditions possible in the
vicinity of showers and/or thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop over the area and move north and east
through the night. Convective activity will decrease to isolated
storms around 08z. Westerly flow aloft will develop over the area by
18z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 220 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Tonight through Sunday...Increased moisture and instability ahead of
a trough moving east across southern Canada will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the area later this afternoon and
evening. Expect best chances for precipitation across Southwest and
South Central Montana though a lot of locations may see showery
light rain this evening. As the trough moves slowly across Montana
through Saturday night an unsettled pattern will continue to bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms to Central Montana. The pattern
starts to shift back to a high pressure setup sometime Sunday and
conditions will dry out and begin to warm up once again.
Sunday night through Friday...A broad upper level trough over
Western Canada will maintain near zonal westerly flow aloft over
the the area through first half of next week before the upper
level ridge builds back into the region. Several shortwaves
embedded within the flow aloft will move across the region during
the period, bringing near daily chances for at least isolated
showers and thunderstorms as the air mass destabilizes each
afternoon with peak heating. Surface pressure gradients through
the first part of the week will allow for light easterly winds
transporting low level moisture into the area and keeping
dewpoints relatively high over Central and North Central Montana.
This moisture is not anticipated to make it into the valleys of
Southwest Montana and should limit thunderstorm potential in the
area. Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages through
early next week before increasing late in the week as the ridge
of high pressure rebuilds and brings above seasonal average
temperatures back into the region. Suk
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 53 79 53 81 / 40 20 20 20
CTB 49 74 49 76 / 50 40 30 20
HLN 54 82 54 85 / 40 20 20 20
BZN 50 83 51 85 / 50 20 20 20
WEY 42 77 42 79 / 50 40 40 40
DLN 50 82 50 83 / 40 20 10 20
HVR 56 79 55 80 / 40 30 30 30
LWT 52 75 52 77 / 60 40 40 30
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
337 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
THE LOW LEVEL JET FORCED CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING
EXITS EAST AROUND 12Z-13Z TO BE REPLACED BY THE CONVECTION ONGOING
ACROSS ERN WY. ALL MODELS SHOW THE WY CONVECTION DECAYING BEFORE IT
REACHES THE FCST AREA...PRESUMABLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES AND
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. RADAR BASED TIMING
TOOLS SHOW THIS WEAK CONVECTION OR ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS EXITING THE
FCST AREA BY 18Z. THIS WOULD SET UP A WINDOW OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE AFTN WITH HOT TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SFC FRONT WHICH SHOULD DRAPE FROM KLXN NORTH TO KANW. THE RUC THEN
SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND THE HRRR THEN
SUGGESTS PARTIAL DESTABILIZATION AND ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND
1.33 INCHES AND AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES NORTH...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WOULD APPEAR OPERATIVE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ITS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH
FORCING IS AVAILABLE THIS FAR SOUTH FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE
MODELS GO QUIET TONIGHT SUGGESTING A DIURNAL FORCING MECHANISM IS
UNDERWAY. SO THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY FORCED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. THE
CONVECTION WEAKENS THIS EVENING WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AND BY WEEKS END WILL BE
CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD. THROUGH MIDWEEK...TSTM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS IN FAIRLY FAST
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
HIGH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD BY WEEKS END...THE UPPER FLOW
DIMINISHES OVER OUR AREA WITH THE TSTM CHANCES SHIFTING NORTH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND EVEN A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA...AND SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS. AS MENTIONED WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY STRONG...AND BULK SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO HELP
SUSTAIN ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUITE STRONG...WITH MOISTURE/DEW POINTS POOLING INVOF THE THE
FRONT.
TEMPERATURE WISE...UNTIL THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS NORTH OVER THE AREA
BY WEEKS END...SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED. THEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...HOT WEATHER DEVELOPS. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
PV ANOMALIES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW HAVE
DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVED INTO AN
UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AND MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT AND
THEREFORE NO MENTIONOF PRECIP TONIGHT FOR KLBF OR KVTN TAFS.
HOWEVER...STRONG LLJ IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND REDEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH AGAIN MOISTURE IS LACKING. KLNX WSR-88D
INDICATES 50KTS AT 500M SO LLWS REMAINS INTHE FCST...DESPITE SOME
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AT KLBF POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK OUTFLOW FROM
SHRA/TSRA FURTHER EAST.
SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THAT
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. HOWEVER WITH A SFC TROF IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA SOME BETTER FORCING MAY PROVIDED SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHCS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ANY TSRA NEAR THE TERMINALS AT THIS POINT IS
LOW AND THEREFORE NOT INCLUDED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
102 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND SKY COVER WILL PREVENT PRETTY MUCH ALL LOCATIONS FROM DROPPING
BELOW 70 TONIGHT. ALSO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH OUR
NORTHERN THIRD STANDS LITTLE CHANCE OF HAVING THUNDER...DUE TO
LESS INSTABILITY...BUT THE HEALTHY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP SOME
ACTIVITY GOING ALL NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST UPDATE FROM SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AND WITH NO LIGHTNING OBSERVED SO FAR WITH THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY...DID NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OTHERWISE...WHILE THERE ARE NOW SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION AS WITH HIGH BASES OF THESE SHOWERS MOST PLACES WILL
HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING ANY PRECIP AT ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER BAND OF THEM TO THE WEST. THE
BAND TO THE WEST WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE VARYING METHODS OF HOW
THEY HANDLE THE WAVE TONIGHT. THE NAM AND THE HRRR BOTH BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
GFS AND THE 4KM WRF REMAIN DRY. HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SOME OF THE
SHOWERS THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST. IT IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE.
ON SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK COLD FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS
DRIFTS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE NAM
AND THE 4KM WRF DEVELOP SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER THEY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW REGIME SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE JET STREAM FLOWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF OUR COUNTRY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW
AND UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE AT
LEAST NEAR NORMAL TO LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL MOST DAYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BIGGER SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF US
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING FROM WEAKER
FORCED EVENTS SUCH AS MINOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WIND SHIFT
TROUGHS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR CONVECTION THAT FORMS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT COULD WORK INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND RAIN EVENTS WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST BUT IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR RAIN I
WOULD NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP TOO MUCH AS THESE ARE ALL LOW END WEAKLY
FORCED EVENTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 90S WITH MAYBE SEVERAL 100 DEGREE DAYS ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD IN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY IT COULD LEAD TO A VERY HOT START TO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY...BUT SPARSE
ENOUGH TO KEEP JUST A VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT. ALSO...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSHOWER EXISTS FOR SATURDAY EVENING...BUT
AGAIN...SHOULD BE SPARSE. THE WIND COULD HAVE A BIT OF A GUST ON
SATURDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1245 AM UPDATE...
SHRA/TSRA STILL DVLPNG AT THIS TIME. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTS TO
INDICATE 500-1000 JOULES OF SBCAPE UNINHIBITED ACRS FINGER LKS,
THO SOME CIN DOWN ACRS NEPA WITH STORMS FORMING IN THE GRADIENT OF
CAPE. HV UPDATED GRIDS TO KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
BFR FINALLY DIMINISHING. HIRES MODELS CONT TO INDICATE ECHOES
WINDING DOWN BY 06Z. HRRR DOES SHOW TSTMS CONTNG ACRS NEPA INTO
SULLIVAN CNTY NY THRU 08Z, THO IT DOES START OFF ABOUT AN HR BHND
WITH CURRENT LOCATION SO HV ADDED ISOLD THUNDER INTO THIS AREA
THRU THIS TIME.
10 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN STILL ONGOING. SOME TRAINING
OCCURRED FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA TO MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.
FLASH FLOODING AGAIN HAPPENING IN MADISON COUNTY. SHOWERS THERE
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. MESO MODELS HAVE THE STORMS DIMINISHING
IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. NOTHING CLOSE TO SEVERE IN A FEW HOURS...BUT
TSTMS SLOW TO DIMINISH IN HEIGHT. ROTATION ALSO BEING
SHOWN...BUT NOT BRIGHT AND TIGHT RECENTLY.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF AND POPS TO CURRENT. EXTENDED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK GOOD.
AT 3 PM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM THE
NRN FINGER LAKES REGION EAST ACROSS THE SYR AREA TO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW SVR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY REMAINS
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO WITH LESS
FORCING. BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MAY TRACK OVER THE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE FA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG BUT WITH WEAKER FORCING AND LESS BULK SHEAR, CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...ONCE DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN AGAIN DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. ANOTHER MUGGY/MILD NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN DURING THIS
PERIOD AS MID WEST TROF MOVES EAST WITH H5 LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO CENTRAL PA BY MONDAY. THE NAM POSITIONS THIS
FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE GFS/ECMWF NORTH. AS THIS OCCUR THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY KEEP ACTIVITY GOING. PWATS WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MAX TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
320 AM UPDATE...
LIMITED CHANGES REQUIRED THIS MORNING AS PREVIOUS FCST REMAINS IN
GREAT SHAPE. AS ALLUDED TO BELOW...REGION WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY MIDWEEK AS CENTRAL US UPPER LOW FINALLY
EXITS STAGE RIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY DAILY SHWRS/STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE UNTIL AT LEAST THU BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOW MOVING CANADIAN UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY ENTER THE REGION
WHICH WILL FINALLY MEAN AN END TO THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
THAT HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO. IN
GENERAL...ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
PTRN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME IN THE MED RNG.
REMNANTS OF THE UPR LOW CRNTLY OVER THE CNTRL U.S. XPCTD TO BE
OVER PA ON MON...MOVG OFF THE CST TUE NGT. ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWING
THIS FEATURE WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED S/WV`S. POTNL FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION IN THIS PTRN (PSBLY NON-DIURNAL) UNTIL FROPA ON
THU...WITH HI PRES XPCTD TO BUILD IN FROM THE GTLAKES LATE IN THE
WEEK. MAXES GNRLY L/M80S WITH 65-70 FOR LOWS...A BIT COOLER
(MAYBE) FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT MOST SITES
AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
NOW...EXPECT DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS AT RME AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ELM ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. AT
BGM/ITH/SYR...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE 12Z
TIME FRAME AS DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A DECAYING NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
BEYOND 15Z...ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS A
WEAK SFC TROUGH ADVANCES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. FCST MODELS SHOW
THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY JOINING FORCES WITH A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
TO RESULT IN CONVECTION FROM THE FINGER LAKES SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF PA. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 MENTIONS AT
ITH/ELM/BGM BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z...WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TROUGH THE DAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH. EXPECT SPEEDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5-10 KT RANGE.
.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED EACH
AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ALSO
PSBL IN EARLY MRNG STRATUS/FOG. OTRW VFR PREVAILS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...
SHRA/TSRA STILL DVLPNG AT THIS TIME. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTS TO
INDICATE 500-1000 JOULES OF SBCAPE UNINHIBITED ACRS FINGER LKS,
THO SOME CIN DOWN ACRS NEPA WITH STORMS FORMING IN THE GRADIENT OF
CAPE. HV UPDATED GRIDS TO KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
BFR FINALLY DIMINISHING. HIRES MODELS CONT TO INDICATE ECHOES
WINDING DOWN BY 06Z. HRRR DOES SHOW TSTMS CONTNG ACRS NEPA INTO
SULLIVAN CNTY NY THRU 08Z, THO IT DOES START OFF ABOUT AN HR BHND
WITH CURRENT LOCATION SO HV ADDED ISOLD THUNDER INTO THIS AREA
THRU THIS TIME.
10 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN STILL ONGOING. SOME TRAINING
OCCURRED FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA TO MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.
FLASH FLOODING AGAIN HAPPENING IN MADISON COUNTY. SHOWERS THERE
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. MESO MODELS HAVE THE STORMS DIMINISHING
IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. NOTHING CLOSE TO SEVERE IN A FEW HOURS...BUT
TSTMS SLOW TO DIMINISH IN HEIGHT. ROTATION ALSO BEING
SHOWN...BUT NOT BRIGHT AND TIGHT RECENTLY.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF AND POPS TO CURRENT. EXTENDED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK GOOD.
AT 3 PM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM THE
NRN FINGER LAKES REGION EAST ACROSS THE SYR AREA TO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW SVR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY REMAINS
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO WITH LESS
FORCING. BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MAY TRACK OVER THE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE FA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG BUT WITH WEAKER FORCING AND LESS BULK SHEAR, CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...ONCE DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN AGAIN DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. ANOTHER MUGGY/MILD NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN DURING THIS
PERIOD AS MID WEST TROF MOVES EAST WITH H5 LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO CENTRAL PA BY MONDAY. THE NAM POSITIONS THIS
FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE GFS/ECMWF NORTH. AS THIS OCCUR THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY KEEP ACTIVITY GOING. PWATS WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MAX TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PTRN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME IN THE MED RNG.
REMNANTS OF THE UPR LOW CRNTLY OVER THE CNTRL U.S. XPCTD TO BE
OVER PA ON MON...MOVG OFF THE CST TUE NGT. ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWING
THIS FEATURE WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED S/WV`S. POTNL FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION IN THIS PTRN (PSBLY NON-DIURNAL) UNTIL FROPA ON
THU...WITH HI PRES XPCTD TO BUILD IN FROM THE GTLAKES LATE IN THE
WEEK. MAXES GNRLY L/M80S WITH 65-70 FOR LOWS...A BIT COOLER
(MAYBE) FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT MOST SITES
AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
NOW...EXPECT DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS AT RME AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ELM ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. AT
BGM/ITH/SYR...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE 12Z
TIME FRAME AS DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A DECAYING NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
BEYOND 15Z...ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS A
WEAK SFC TROUGH ADVANCES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. FCST MODELS SHOW
THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY JOINING FORCES WITH A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
TO RESULT IN CONVECTION FROM THE FINGER LAKES SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF PA. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 MENTIONS AT
ITH/ELM/BGM BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z...WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TROUGH THE DAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH. EXPECT SPEEDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5-10 KT RANGE.
.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED EACH
AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ALSO
PSBL IN EARLY MRNG STRATUS/FOG. OTRW VFR PREVAILS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1250 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...
SHRA/TSRA STILL DVLPNG AT THIS TIME. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTS TO
INDICATE 500-1000 JOULES OF SBCAPE UNINHIBITED ACRS FINGER LKS,
THO SOME CIN DOWN ACRS NEPA WITH STORMS FORMING IN THE GRADIENT OF
CAPE. HV UPDATED GRIDS TO KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
BFR FINALLY DIMINISHING. HIRES MODELS CONT TO INDICATE ECHOES
WINDING DOWN BY 06Z. HRRR DOES SHOW TSTMS CONTNG ACRS NEPA INTO
SULLIVAN CNTY NY THRU 08Z, THO IT DOES START OFF ABOUT AN HR BHND
WITH CURRENT LOCATION SO HV ADDED ISOLD THUNDER INTO THIS AREA
THRU THIS TIME.
10 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN STILL ONGOING. SOME TRAINING
OCCURRED FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA TO MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.
FLASH FLOODING AGAIN HAPPENING IN MADISON COUNTY. SHOWERS THERE
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. MESO MODELS HAVE THE STORMS DIMINISHING
IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. NOTHING CLOSE TO SEVERE IN A FEW HOURS...BUT
TSTMS SLOW TO DIMINISH IN HEIGHT. ROTATION ALSO BEING
SHOWN...BUT NOT BRIGHT AND TIGHT RECENTLY.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF AND POPS TO CURRENT. EXTENDED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK GOOD.
AT 3 PM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM THE
NRN FINGER LAKES REGION EAST ACROSS THE SYR AREA TO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW SVR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY REMAINS
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO WITH LESS
FORCING. BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MAY TRACK OVER THE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE FA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500
J/KG BUT WITH WEAKER FORCING AND LESS BULK SHEAR, CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...ONCE DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN AGAIN DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. ANOTHER MUGGY/MILD NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN DURING THIS
PERIOD AS MID WEST TROF MOVES EAST WITH H5 LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO CENTRAL PA BY MONDAY. THE NAM POSITIONS THIS
FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE GFS/ECMWF NORTH. AS THIS OCCUR THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY KEEP ACTIVITY GOING. PWATS WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MAX TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PTRN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME IN THE MED RNG.
REMNANTS OF THE UPR LOW CRNTLY OVER THE CNTRL U.S. XPCTD TO BE
OVER PA ON MON...MOVG OFF THE CST TUE NGT. ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWING
THIS FEATURE WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED S/WV`S. POTNL FOR A FEW ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION IN THIS PTRN (PSBLY NON-DIURNAL) UNTIL FROPA ON
THU...WITH HI PRES XPCTD TO BUILD IN FROM THE GTLAKES LATE IN THE
WEEK. MAXES GNRLY L/M80S WITH 65-70 FOR LOWS...A BIT COOLER
(MAYBE) FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES/LAKE PLAIN AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS EVENING. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE E/NE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
KRME AND KSYR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED MVFR WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. AS THE SUN SETS...THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TRANSITION TO THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EASTERN COAST MOVES SOUTHWARD. EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BROKEN MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON LOCATION OR
TIMING THUS LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR THE TIME BEING.
.OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED EACH
AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ALSO
PSBL IN EARLY MRNG STRATUS/FOG. OTRW VFR PREVAILS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1227 AM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPING
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITHIN THIS MOISTURE
PLUME AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH BLENDED AMSU-SSM/I
PWATS ANALYZED TO BE AROUND 1 INCH. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND FURTHER HEATING DESTABILIZES
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z SHOWS WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAP FORECAST MAINTAINING SHEAR
OF ABOUT 35 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SO STORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ALL IN ALL...SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINS
WILL FALL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THE DEEPEST OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING AT PWATS TO BE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH FROM WEST TO EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THEN EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT STALLS
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOULD SEE WEAK SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A CLAP
OF THUNDER DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MORNING. A BROADER
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN ADDITION TO WITHIN
THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. BULK SHEAR WILL BE ABOUT 10
KT HIGHER TOMORROW THAN TODAY SO COULD SEE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGER HAIL. STILL NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE HOWEVER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST...MORESO
AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013
A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WITH THE FASTER WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN STATES. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT PACIFIC MOISTURE
AS WELL AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME. SCATTERED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY
AND 0-6KM SHEAR (SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND 30-40 KT RESPECTIVELY)
WILL BE ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE BLACK
HILLS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SO THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON TO KIMBALL. HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES (0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES) WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING STORMS.
TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THAT TIME...LIMITING THE CONVECTION
TO ISOLATED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY...
HIGHER INSTABILITY TRIES TO ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TSTORMS. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND MID
LEVEL CAP SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
THIS MAY ADVECT SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE CWA FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES DURING
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER ALBANY COUNTY...SO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLAR AND KCYS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...WEAK WINDS AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS SEEING SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
930 AM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE WEAK WAVE WHICH CAME THROUGH THE FRONT RANGE
BEFORE DAWN HAS LEFT THE AREA WITH SOME SLIGHT DRYING AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. RESULTANT INTEGRATED PW VALUES FROM GPS HAS SHOWN
A DECREASE OF .20" IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER ALSO
SHOWING THIS SHIFT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FROM NEAR SURFACE UP TO
550 MB. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE DOWN A BIT OVER THE FRONT RANGE BUT
REMAIN IN THE 50S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST BUT
STABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP TO 500J/KG OVER
PLAINS AND MAYBE UP TO 1000JKG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. AGAIN...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN OUTPUT FROM STORMS TODAY. GIVEN HIGH PW
VALUES CERTAINLY A FEW STORMS MAY PUT OUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT QUITE LOW AGAIN WITH
RATHER WEAK SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE AND LOW CAPE VALUES.
.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AM BUT LIKELY
SHIFTING TO SOME SORT OF EAST/NORTHEAST DIRECTION BEFORE
CONVECTION BEGINS. EXPECT MORE ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON PENDING OUTFLOW FROM SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LATEST
NAM/RUC ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT STORMS OVER THE TERMINALS AND
KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP ANCHORED OVER TERRAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF
DENVER WHILE HRRR SEEMS OVER ZEALOUS IN STORMS OVER DENVER AREA.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT DRYING WOULD FAVOR LATER DEVELOPMENT AND
MAYBE MORE ISOLATED. NOT SURE IF TEMP FOR TS TODAY IS TOO MUCH AND
WILL REEVALUATE FOR 18Z ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013/
SHORT TERM...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A WIND SHIFT THAT CAME OUT OF
YESTERDAYS UTAH CONVECTION. THE LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WILL LIKELY FADE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS IT MOVES
ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN JUST NORTH OF
DENVER AND SOME WIND OVER A LARGER AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.90 INCH IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THIS
TIME YESTERDAY...PERHAPS EVEN DOWN A LITTLE...BUT SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS MAY MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. STILL
NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY...AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
BUT POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG IF THE PLAINS WARM UP TO THE MID 90S
IN THE MIDDAY SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN.
WITHOUT MUCH SHEAR AND HIGH FREEZING LEVEL...SEVERE THREAT IS
PRETTY LOW. ONCE AGAIN CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...BEST POPS
ON THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING THEN LOW POPS LATE. IT HAS BEEN HARD
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 IN DENVER...I DID LOWER HIGHS
SLIGHTLY FOR THE CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL 90S MOST PLACES.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE MDLS KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM ARIZONA TO OKLAHOMA WITH A MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWFA. INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY
KEEP PW VALUES IN THE 0.8-0.9 RANGE BOTH DAYS...CAPES DIFFER SOME
FM MODEL TO MODEL BUT GENERALLY IN THE 400-1400 J/KG RANGE...WITH
THE GREATEST INSTBY OVER THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE GENEROUS WITH THE MOISTURE VS THE NAM...SO A MEAN OF THE
TWO (800-1000 J/KG) SEEMS LIKE THE BEST GUESS IN TERMS OF THE
INSTBY. BEST CHANCE COVERAGE WISE WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH GENERALLY CHC POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF ONE OR TWO NOCTURNAL STORMS. THE RIDGE ITSELF IS PROGGED TO
BUILD NORTHWARD AND CENTER ITSELF OVER THE STATE TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...IT SHOULD BE A BIT HOTTER AND
DRIER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HOWEVER STILL
REMAINS UNDER THE RIDGE SO WL GENERALLY GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS AT
THAT TIME. THE GFS KEEPS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY BUT INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE MAY HELP TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION BY
THAT TIME. STORM MOTION STILL AOA 15 KTS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NERN CO FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY...THOUGH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DISRUPT THE PATTERN. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...STILL GENERALLY WEAK. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AND LOWERED CEILINGS REQUIRING
INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
HYDROLOGY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAN WIND DECREASING TO ABOUT 8
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY LINEAR WIND STRUCTURE WOULD SUPPORT
FORWARD PROPAGATION HOWEVER...AND THE OVERNIGHT STORMS HAVE BEEN
MOVING FASTER THAN THE MEAN WIND. BETWEEN THE WIND STRUCTURE AND
LIMITED CAPE NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT A FLOOD THREAT...PERHAPS AN
INCH IN UNDER AN HOUR FROM A SLOW MOVING STORM SOMEWHERE BUT IN
GENERAL STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING AND NOT THAT STRONG. IF THERE WERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW IT WOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY...BUT NOT
TODAY. SO A LOW THREAT OF FLOODING IN THE BURN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND NO THREAT ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1040 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOST DAYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON TRACK...REFLECTING HAZY...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONTINUING HEAT ADVISORIES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS BUBBLING ACROSS THE REGION...BECOMING THICK...AN OUTCOME
LIKELY CONSEQUENTIAL OF WEAK AREAS OF LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE
WEAKENING BERMUDA HIGH. THICKER CLOUDS MAY PERTURB THE FORECAST IN
KEEPING CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER. BUT WITH THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WILL KEEP WITH THE HEAT ADVISORIES
MAKING NO CHANGES.
AS TO THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH THE RAP
AND HRRR HINT AT SOME ACTIVITY ALONG AND AROUND THE MASSACHUSETTS
TURNPIKE...THOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED AND ISOLATED. CUMULUS CLOUDS
PER WEBCAMS IS LOOKING SOMEWHAT BUBBLY...MAYBE AN EARLY INDICATION
OF THE CONVECTIVE-NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOOKING AT THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...LOTS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ENHANCED LIFT THROUGH THE REGION DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF WEAK AREAS OF ASCENT THROUGH THE LONGWAVE FLOW
PATTERN COUPLED WITH A BROAD RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET /YET THE FLAT FLOW LEAVES LESS TO BE DESIRED/ COULD
RESULT IN SOME WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PER SATELLITE...THE
BETTER MOIST AXIS AND DYNAMICS ARE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...
BUT WITH THE DEGRADING RIDGE ALLOWING THE ENERGY TO SHIFT SOUTH
AND EAST...THERE IS CERTAINLY A THREAT FOR ANY STORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...
NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO HAVE LONGEVITY.
HAVE UPDATED POP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH A SLIGHT RISK CHANCE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL. KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
CONVERGENCE PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL TROUGHING...WHILE
MONITORING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN FOR OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING PROCESSES.
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW-90S WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUE.
COOLEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH-SHORE WITH THE ONSHORE BREEZE.
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH
THE CENTURY MARK OR HIGHER FOR AREAS IN THE HEAT ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG BUT THE
WEST WIND AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM NEW YORK MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT
OF ANY FOG. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BACK IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM HUMID SIDE OF THE
FRONT WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER STILL SUPPORTING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S. IF CLOUDS FILL IN TOO FAST THEN MAX
TEMPS MAY FALL SHORT OF 90...BUT WE ARE GOING WITH THE SUNNIER AND
BETTER MIXED SCENARIO.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN CAMPED OUT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL EJECT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL EACH HAVE
ASSOCIATED UPPER JETS PROVIDING SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT. THE
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUPY WITH PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES...SO
PRIME POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS/FLASH FLOODING.
SURFACE BASED CAPE FORECASTS SHOW 1500-3000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR
SHOWS 30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN SECTIONS. THIS WILL MEAN A
SECONDARY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE WIND
DAMAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WARM AND HUMID CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY INTERIOR
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING DEEPER AND DEEPER
WITH LONGWAVE NRN CANADIAN TROF THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE
CONSEQUENCE APPEARS TO BE THAT THE BROAD E CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS
GRIP THROUGH THE LONG TERM SUCH THAT A WEAK ZONAL JET PATTERN WILL
BE FULLY IN CONTROL BY MID WEEK. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECENS AND GFS
ALSO SUPPORT THEIR OPERATIONAL BRETHREN THAT A SHIFT IN THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME BY LATE WEEK WOULD FEATURE A BROAD TROF
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CANADIAN TROF. WHILE
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY STRUGGLES TO HANDLE BROAD PATTERN CHANGES IN
THE EXTENDED...SINCE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT ACROSS THE
BOARD...HAVE A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL REGARDING A STRONG
LOW PRES AND IT/S ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A
DRIER AND ULTIMATELY COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. HPC
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECENS ENSEMBLES AND A BLEND OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF...SO IN TANDEM WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HPC AND A BLEND OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR THIS UPDATE.
ESSENTIALLY...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED RIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND. MON APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INITIALLY AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTION ON TUE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LOWER. THEN...FOR WED-WEEKEND...A
STRONGER LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER TROF RIDGING THE WEAK JET
WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH...THEN A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEK. STILL SOME PLAYERS YET TO LINE
UP...BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. DO HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE WARM...BUT A BIT
COOLER THAN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
DETAILS...
SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...
SUN NIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER SOMEWHAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THANKS TO NEAR 30 KT SHEAR AND ML CAPE VALUES HOLDING AROUND 1000
J/KG INITIALLY. HOWEVER...SHOULD BE SOME LATE NIGHT DRYING AS
MESOSCALE RIDGING BUILDS OVER BEHIND THE EXITING CONVECTION. ON
MON HOWEVER...WITH THE TROF THAT SPARKED THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY...AND A SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE
THROUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE GIVEN LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT ABOUT 5.5-6.0C/KM.
SHOULD THE SUN BREAK OUT...ML CAPE VALUES LOOK TO APPROACH
1000-1500J/KG...AND SHEAR MAGNITUDES APPROACH 35-40 KT.
THEREFORE...HOW STRONG THE CONVECTION IS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER INITIALLY...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED. HEAVY RAIN
STILL THE BIGGEST THREAT THOUGH WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2.0
INCHES...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN WX WITH ANY T-STORMS.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MORE STORMS COULD FIRE ON TUE...BUT WEAK
MID LVL RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE BEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR/AND
FOCUS FOR LIFT TO THE N DURING THE DAY. WILL LOWER POPS SOMEWHAT
FROM THOSE ON MON. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WOULD BE
LESS.
WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...
BROAD TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN IN VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALLOWING A LOW PRES CENTER TO PASS WELL N AND
W OF THE REGION. A SFC WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY CROSS
THE REGION ON WED INTO EARLY THU. THIS COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/T-STORMS AND ALLOW ALLOW FOR MID LVL
TEMPS TO REACH THOSE SIMILAR TO LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...A FEW TEMPS THU COULD APPROACH 90F WITH THE HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE. THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION AS IT WILL BE DETERMINED
ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE UPPER LVL PATTERN GETS BY NEXT WEEK...BUT FOR
NOW WILL ERR TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH SUGGEST FRI OR FRI
NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER THREAT FOR STORMS AND RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME LOCALIZED LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG MAY BRING 3 TO 5 MILE VSBYS. HOWEVER...GIVEN A
WESTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE WIND NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSHOWER...PARTICULARLY IN THE W INTERIOR.
SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BRING
BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE CT VALLEY AND IN SOUTHERN NH.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON T-STORM IN VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
OF ANY LOWER CATEGORIES THROUGH THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORECAST.
MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH AFTN/EVE.
FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP MOST NIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL
LIMIT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OR THE LOW 20S ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG WILL HAVE LESS
OF A PRESENCE THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT PATCHES MAY LINGER
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING SWELL WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO REACH ABOUT 5 FT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ON
THE WATERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS SAVE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SURROUNDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...WHERE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS MAY CAUSE
OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDS OFFICIAL CLIMATE
SITES FOR JULY 5TH THROUGH THE 10TH
BOS PVD ORH BDL
6TH 101/1911 102/2010 102/2010 98/1911
7TH 99/1953 97/1993* 100/2010 95/1908
8TH 99/1937 99/1981 97/1993 97/1936*
9TH 99/1981* 99/1981 99/1936* 96/1937
10TH 101/1880 100/1993 100/1936* 95/1936*
* AND PREVIOUS YEARS
ALSO...SINCE WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 90 DEGREES...HERE ARE THE LONGEST HEAT WAVES IN THE HISTORY
OF OUR 4 CLIMATE SITES.
HARTFORD/BRADLEY
JULY 24-AUGUST 2, 1995 - 10 DAYS
AUGUST 11-19, 2002 - 9 DAYS
AUGUST 27-SEPTEMBER 4, 1973 - 9 DAYS
JULY 27-AUGUST 3, 2006 - 8 DAYS
JULY 29-AUGUST 5, 2002 - 8 DAYS
JULY 16-23, 1991 - 8 DAYS
JULY 24-31, 1970 - 8 DAYS
AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 4, 1953 - 8 DAYS
AUGUST 10-17, 1944 - 8 DAYS
WORCESTER/AIRPORT
AUGUST 10-17, 1944 - 8 DAYS
JULY 4-11, 1912 - 8 DAYS
JUNE 26-JULY 3, 1901 - 8 DAYS
AUGUST 10-15, 1988 - 6 DAYS
JULY 25-29, 1963 - 5 DAYS
BOSTON/LOGAN AIRPORT
JULY 3-11, 1912 - 9 DAYS
AUGUST 11-18, 2002 - 8 DAYS
JULY 19-26, 1994 - 8 DAYS
AUGUST 10-17, 1944 - 8 DAYS
JUNE 28-JULY 5, 1872 - 8 DAYS
PROVIDENCE/T.F. GREEN
JULY 12-20, 1952 - 9 DAYS
JULY 28-AUGUST 3, 2006 - 7 DAYS
AUGUST 13-19, 2002 - 7 DAYS
JULY 15-21, 1977 - 7 DAYS
AUGUST 11-17, 1944 - 7 DAYS
JULY 7-13, 1944 - 7 DAYS
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-010-
011-013>019.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
CLIMATE...WFO BOX STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WX/POPS GRIDS TODAY. WILL CONTINUE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IL TODAY
MAINLY EAST OF I-55 WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF I-57 WHERE MORE
CLOUDS EXPECTED HERE AND COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F.
MORE SUNSHINE FROM I-55 WEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. RATHER
HUMID ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
579 DM 500 MB LOW OVER SE MO TO MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN IL THIS
EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. TROPICAL FETCH
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO/TN
VALLEYS AND INTO EASTERN IL AS WELL TO KEEP BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT PART OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
FOG HAS STAYED UNDER CONTROL AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY MORNING...
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ABOVE 2SM. SMALL AREA OF CEILINGS
BELOW 1000 FEET WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF KCMI AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY FOR ANY NORTHWARD ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING TAF FORECASTS IN THE 14-06Z
TIME FRAME...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING. OCCURRENCE OF THUNDER APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AROUND KCMI...AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER WEST
TOWARD KDEC/KBMI ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE MUCH FARTHER APART
THAT FAR WEST. HAVE KEPT WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY AGAIN
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...AS SHOWN BY WIDE SWATH OF 850MB DEWPOINTS
AROUND 15C FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST
OF THIS MOISTURE HAS REMAINED EAST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER SOME OF IT WILL GET PULLED A BIT FURTHER
WESTWARD TODAY AS PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI FINALLY
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM EARLIER THIS
EVENING SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW AROUND MEMPHIS TENNESSEE. THIS FEATURE
HAS PULLED QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AND IS BEGINNING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. 04Z HRRR PREDICTED THIS DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 06Z AND 07Z
QUITE NICELY...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST. SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
N/NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CURRENT TRAJECTORIES KEEPING
THE BULK OF THE RAIN ACROSS FAR SE ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA THIS
MORNING. AS UPPER LOW/COOL POOL ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON MOST HIGH-RES
MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED EAST OF
I-55. FOR POP FORECAST TODAY...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FAR SE KILX CWA WHERE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL IMPACT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE AS FAR WEST AS I-55. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST THIS EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD
OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AS
IT GRADUALLY GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD BY PREVAILING JET STREAM OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER FORCING
REMAINING IN PLACE AND NO SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
RISING HEIGHTS AND OTHER MITIGATING FACTORS...MODELS INSIST THAT
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT THINK SUNDAY WILL MAINLY BE A WARM
AND DRY DAY.
THINGS BEGIN TO GET A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BECOMES POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PARTICULAR PATTERN HAS BEEN QUITE COMMON OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS...AND HAS LED TO COPIOUS RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THIS PATTERN ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING
EXACT DETAILS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME PARTS
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WOULD
BE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
FAVORABLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST MODELS TRYING TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA OVERNIGHT THEN DROPPING REMNANTS INTO
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ACCORDINGLY...WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING
FURTHER E/SE ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTER ANOTHER MCS TRACKS E/SE OUT OF IOWA ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM-SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN FURTHER EAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
INCLUDE ONLY THE FAR SE CWA. AFTER THAT...HAVE GONE DRY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
641 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...AS SHOWN BY WIDE SWATH OF 850MB DEWPOINTS
AROUND 15C FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST
OF THIS MOISTURE HAS REMAINED EAST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER SOME OF IT WILL GET PULLED A BIT FURTHER
WESTWARD TODAY AS PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI FINALLY
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM EARLIER THIS
EVENING SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW AROUND MEMPHIS TENNESSEE. THIS FEATURE
HAS PULLED QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AND IS BEGINNING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. 04Z HRRR PREDICTED THIS DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 06Z AND 07Z
QUITE NICELY...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST. SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
N/NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CURRENT TRAJECTORIES KEEPING
THE BULK OF THE RAIN ACROSS FAR SE ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA THIS
MORNING. AS UPPER LOW/COOL POOL ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON MOST HIGH-RES
MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED EAST OF
I-55. FOR POP FORECAST TODAY...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FAR SE KILX CWA WHERE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL IMPACT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE AS FAR WEST AS I-55. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST THIS EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD
OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AS
IT GRADUALLY GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD BY PREVAILING JET STREAM OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER FORCING
REMAINING IN PLACE AND NO SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
RISING HEIGHTS AND OTHER MITIGATING FACTORS...MODELS INSIST THAT
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT THINK SUNDAY WILL MAINLY BE A WARM
AND DRY DAY.
THINGS BEGIN TO GET A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BECOMES POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PARTICULAR PATTERN HAS BEEN QUITE COMMON OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS...AND HAS LED TO COPIOUS RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THIS PATTERN ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING
EXACT DETAILS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME PARTS
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WOULD
BE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
FAVORABLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST MODELS TRYING TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA OVERNIGHT THEN DROPPING REMNANTS INTO
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ACCORDINGLY...WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING
FURTHER E/SE ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTER ANOTHER MCS TRACKS E/SE OUT OF IOWA ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM-SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN FURTHER EAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
INCLUDE ONLY THE FAR SE CWA. AFTER THAT...HAVE GONE DRY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
FOG HAS STAYED UNDER CONTROL AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY MORNING...
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ABOVE 2SM. SMALL AREA OF CEILINGS
BELOW 1000 FEET WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF KCMI AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY FOR ANY NORTHWARD ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING TAF FORECASTS IN THE 14-06Z
TIME FRAME...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER THIS MORNING. OCCURRENCE OF THUNDER APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AROUND KCMI...AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER WEST
TOWARD KDEC/KBMI ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE MUCH FARTHER APART
THAT FAR WEST. HAVE KEPT WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY AGAIN
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1050 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
INDIANA WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO MIDWEEK. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS WAVES
ALOFT RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND DRIER WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
IT HAS BEEN A WET START FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH OF
THE WIDESPREAD AND LIGHTER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE
SCATTERED BUT HEAVIER FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS
REMAINED IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT 14Z.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE IS TO INSERT SOME TIMING INTO PRECIP
COVERAGE GOING FORWARD AS MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OHIO AT THIS TIME. HRRR HAS DONE A
REASONABLY GOOD JOB ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO THIS POINT...EVEN
CAPTURING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE HEAVIER SCATTERED CONVECTION
WHICH HAS MIGRATED NORTHWEST INTO THE WABASH VALLEY THIS MORNING
DESPITE SOME ERRORS IN LOCATION AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN
CATEGORICAL POPS AT LEAST INITIALLY OVER EASTERN COUNTIES TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING PRECIP...BUT WILL TREND BACK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER ENTIRE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO
THE N/NE. ADDITIONAL FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH PEAK HEATING...EXPECT TO
SEE ISOLATED THUNDER DESPITE THE THICK CLOUD COVER. PULLED TEMPS
BACK A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S TODAY.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS RAIN CHANCES.
ALL MODELS MOVE MOISTURE OUT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MET AND ECM
START WITH MORE. VERY SHARP DROP IN MET POPS COMPARED TO DAYTIME
PERIOD SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH SINCE MOISTURE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AT
00Z. MAV POPS LOOK BETTER CONSIDERING THIS LINE OF THOUGHT. ENOUGH
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SO PARTLY CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT
WELL ORGANIZED FORCING DOESNT OCCUR WITH ANY MODEL SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED STUFF FIRING DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. GOING
WITH WHICHEVER GUIDANCE IS WETTER. EVEN WHERE IT DOESN`T
RAIN...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND DURING DAYS. WILL BE CLEARER AT
NIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG.
NAM COOLER THAN OTHER MODELS AT 850...ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY.
MAINLY GOING MAV TEMPS. SOMEHOW MET DOES STAY WARMER THAN MAV
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SEEMS SO OUT OF SYNC WITH WHAT IT IS DOING
OTHERWISE WILL STICK WITH MAV FOR THEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ALONG WITH QPF...AND THEY ARE NOT FAR OFF THE CONSISTENT ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. GFS AND ECMWF MAINLY DIFFER IN HANDLING OF AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE 00Z GFS MUCH
QUICKER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. VARIOUS IMPULSES IN FAST NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW ALSO DIFFER AND NORMALLY DO WITH THAT TYPE OF FLOW.
STILL...BOTH MODELS HAVE QPF THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH MATCHES
NICELY WITH THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION AND FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
THE EXTENDED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE LIGHT RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH UPPER FLOW...JUST NORTHWEST OF ZONAL...
DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK WESTERN RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS RISING TEMPERATURES AND
THEREFORE INSTABILITY. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL LIFT THE WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AND TRIGGER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT
SMALL POPS SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT ON THURSDAY PER MODELS AND
ALLBLEND...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEEK.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...REGIONAL INITIALIZATION OUTPUT LOOKS GOOD
WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND IT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 061500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOWERS CONTINUE BUT VFR IS MAKING IT/S WAY
NORTH WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PUSHED BACK
INCLUSION OF VCTS UNTIL 18Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER ALL BUT
POSSIBLY LAF BY 12Z. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO FALL APART SOME BY 16Z
WITH REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 70S. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS TO START OFF
WITH AT ALL BUT LAF AND VCSH AT LAF THROUGH 16Z. THEN...MVFR OR VFR
SHOWERS WITH VCTS 16Z-00Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD SCATTER AFTER 00Z AND
WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING...VCSH SHOULD BE OK. THEN...MORE IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GO LIGHT
TO CALM.
SOUTH AND SOUTH WEST WINDS WILL BE 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER 15Z SUNDAY AT IND.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
INDIANA WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO MIDWEEK. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS WAVES
ALOFT RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND DRIER WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
IT HAS BEEN A WET START FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH OF
THE WIDESPREAD AND LIGHTER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE
SCATTERED BUT HEAVIER FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS
REMAINED IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT 14Z.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE IS TO INSERT SOME TIMING INTO PRECIP
COVERAGE GOING FORWARD AS MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OHIO AT THIS TIME. HRRR HAS DONE A
REASONABLY GOOD JOB ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO THIS POINT...EVEN
CAPTURING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE HEAVIER SCATTERED CONVECTION
WHICH HAS MIGRATED NORTHWEST INTO THE WABASH VALLEY THIS MORNING
DESPITE SOME ERRORS IN LOCATION AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN
CATEGORICAL POPS AT LEAST INITIALLY OVER EASTERN COUNTIES TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING PRECIP...BUT WILL TREND BACK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER ENTIRE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO
THE N/NE. ADDITIONAL FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH PEAK HEATING...EXPECT TO
SEE ISOLATED THUNDER DESPITE THE THICK CLOUD COVER. PULLED TEMPS
BACK A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S TODAY.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS RAIN CHANCES.
ALL MODELS MOVE MOISTURE OUT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MET AND ECM
START WITH MORE. VERY SHARP DROP IN MET POPS COMPARED TO DAYTIME
PERIOD SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH SINCE MOISTURE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AT
00Z. MAV POPS LOOK BETTER CONSIDERING THIS LINE OF THOUGHT. ENOUGH
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SO PARTLY CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT
WELL ORGANIZED FORCING DOESNT OCCUR WITH ANY MODEL SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED STUFF FIRING DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. GOING
WITH WHICHEVER GUIDANCE IS WETTER. EVEN WHERE IT DOESN`T
RAIN...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND DURING DAYS. WILL BE CLEARER AT
NIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG.
NAM COOLER THAN OTHER MODELS AT 850...ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY.
MAINLY GOING MAV TEMPS. SOMEHOW MET DOES STAY WARMER THAN MAV
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SEEMS SO OUT OF SYNC WITH WHAT IT IS DOING
OTHERWISE WILL STICK WITH MAV FOR THEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ALONG WITH QPF...AND THEY ARE NOT FAR OFF THE CONSISTENT ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. GFS AND ECMWF MAINLY DIFFER IN HANDLING OF AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE 00Z GFS MUCH
QUICKER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. VARIOUS IMPULSES IN FAST NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW ALSO DIFFER AND NORMALLY DO WITH THAT TYPE OF FLOW.
STILL...BOTH MODELS HAVE QPF THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH MATCHES
NICELY WITH THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION AND FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
THE EXTENDED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE LIGHT RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH UPPER FLOW...JUST NORTHWEST OF ZONAL...
DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK WESTERN RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS RISING TEMPERATURES AND
THEREFORE INSTABILITY. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL LIFT THE WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AND TRIGGER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT
SMALL POPS SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT ON THURSDAY PER MODELS AND
ALLBLEND...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEEK.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...REGIONAL INITIALIZATION OUTPUT LOOKS GOOD
WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND IT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 061200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER ALL BUT
POSSIBLY LAF BY 12Z. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO FALL APART SOME BY 16Z
WITH REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 70S. WILL GO WITH SHOWERS TO START OFF
WITH AT ALL BUT LAF AND VCSH AT LAF THROUGH 16Z. THEN...MVFR OR VFR
SHOWERS WITH VCTS 16Z-00Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD SCATTER AFTER 00Z AND
WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING...VCSH SHOULD BE OK. THEN...MORE IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GO LIGHT
TO CALM.
SOUTH AND SOUTH WEST WINDS WILL BE 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER 15Z SUNDAY AT IND.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
705 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
ELEVATED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO
THE AREA AGAIN...THIS TIME ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE RUC AND
HRRR SHOW MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SUPPORT FOR
THIS CONVECTION AS FAR EAST AS ABOUT THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THRU
MID-MORNING BEFORE WANING AGAIN BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND WILL TAKE A
MODIFIED PERSISTENCE TYPE APPROACH FOR MAXS WITH DIURNALLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AS WELL EACH DAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS COULD DRIFT CLOSE TO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS AS WELL...THOUGH WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND HANDLE ON
A SHORT TERM BASIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES A TOP THE ELONGATED WEST-EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW A MODEST COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH INTO KANSAS WITH VERY
SLIGHT AND RATHER BRIEF COOLING POSSIBLE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
GOING FORECAST WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS
WELL...BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND HEAT BUILD BACK
IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SCT -SHRA WITH A FEW -TSRA THAT ARE PESTERING PRIMARILY CNTRL & SC
KS ALONG & W OF I-135 SHOULD DISSIPATE ~15Z. A FEW -SHRA/ISOLATED
ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER EXTREME SE KS NEAR THE MO BORDER & WILL DO
LIKEWISE. LIKE YESTERDAY S WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE
THIS MORNING & WOULD BE STRONGEST OVER CNTRL & SC KS WHERE
SUSTAINED A 25-30KTS WITH 30-39KT/35-45MPH GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WOULD GREATLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY OVER KCNU...AS DECOUPLING ENSUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 96 73 98 74 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 97 73 99 74 / 20 10 10 10
NEWTON 95 72 97 74 / 20 10 10 10
ELDORADO 95 72 97 73 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 95 73 97 75 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 99 71 101 72 / 20 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 99 71 101 72 / 20 10 10 10
SALINA 98 73 100 74 / 20 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 98 73 100 74 / 20 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 94 71 96 73 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 92 70 94 72 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 91 69 93 72 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 93 71 95 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
751 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
A VERY MILD EARLY MORNING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH MANY TEMPS
STILL IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST
TO 20+KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER MN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NW
ONTARIO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE RAP AND THE LOCAL RAPID
UPDATE WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST THAT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE WEAK Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT PASSES BY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
DRY AIRMASS PER THE 00Z MPX AND GRB RAOBS...AND BEST SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN LAKE...THERE IS NOT
GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
JUST SOUTH OF DLH...PCPN CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT FROM IWD TO THE
KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED
POPS THIS MORNING FOR THIS REGION. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO SAGS SOUTHWARD TODAY...THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NEXT WEAK WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. MLCAPE VALUES
RISE TO AROUND 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST...BUT THE
CAPE IS FAIRLY SKINNY WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF ONLY AROUND 6
C/KM. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND/OR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY HELP
ENHANCE LOCAL BULK SHEAR...OVERALL THE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE LOW
WITH ONLY 15-20 KT OF DEEP SHEAR. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST...BUT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE WEAKENING 850MB WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AS THE UPPER VORT
PASSES BY JUST TO THE NORTH. IN FACT...MANY OF THE HIGHER RES NWP
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE HEAVIEST PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MARQUETTE AND
BARAGA COUNTIES. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES BY...EXPECT WEAK DRY
ADVECTION AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AT 850MB ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...HELPING TO BRING ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS GENERALLY TO AN END IN THOSE AREAS. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BETTER MOISTURE REMAINING FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW TO NW WISCONSIN...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR THE WESTERN 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA FOR THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME TYPE OF LULL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN SUN MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL IN THE KEWEENAW...WEAK UPSLOPE E OR SE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ANY RAINFALL
AND ALSO COOLER AIR OFF THE LAKE...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FROM CMX
TO COPPER HARBOR TONIGHT. WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO THERE
IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RAIN DIMINISHES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...THUS MAKING IT
MUCH MORE HUMID THAN FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...IT WILL LIKELY FEEL
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WORSE THAN FRIDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.
TEMPS WILL STILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO FORM WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP AREAS NEAR THE SHORELINE
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL MOVE FROM SRN
MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH TRAILING
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. ONGOING CONVECTION FROM NE MN INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW WI MAY MOVE INTO W UPPER MI IN THE MORNING. IF
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOP...AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
COULD CLIMB TO 1000-1500 J/KG SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SCT/NMRS
SHRA/TSRA WITH THE TROUGH...OUTFLOW AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TO 30 KT WILL BE
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONGER/SVR STORMS. WITH PWAT VALUES
TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PCPN COVERAGE WAS LIMITED AS THE GFS/GEM
AND HIGHER RES MODELS WERE SIGNFICANTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
AFTERNOON PCPN COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. ANY EVENING SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN AND
THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH.
MON...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF UPPER MI...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WEAK SHRTWVS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THAT COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PCPN KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
TUE-FRI...THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
QVECTOR CONV AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY FROM TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED. ALTHOUGH THE GFS DISPLAYED CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...THE GEM/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF KEEPING STRONGER
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WOULD DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD UPPER MI AND LIMIT PCPN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS. A RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED BY THU WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE AND TRAILING WEAK SHRTWVS AROUND
THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
A WEAK TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SERVE AS
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE JUST WEST AND NORTH
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER WRN MN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STILL UNCLEAR
HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
CMX AND IWD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AND EXACT TIMING...WILL NOT BE SPECIFIC WITH TIMING
IN THE TERMINALS. SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
CMX...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE UPSLOPE E-SE WINDS IN FOG. SAW IS
EXPECTED TO STAY GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IN THE TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ESPECIALLY ON
THE CMAN STATIONS OR LARGER SHIPS. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT
TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THOUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY THEN DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS FOR STRONGER NW WINDS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.
DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
627 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
THE RAP13 IS BACKING OFF ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT FOR SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST RAIN CHANCES
HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
THE LOW LEVEL JET FORCED CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING
EXITS EAST AROUND 12Z-13Z TO BE REPLACED BY THE CONVECTION ONGOING
ACROSS ERN WY. ALL MODELS SHOW THE WY CONVECTION DECAYING BEFORE IT
REACHES THE FCST AREA...PRESUMABLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES AND
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. RADAR BASED TIMING
TOOLS SHOW THIS WEAK CONVECTION OR ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS EXITING THE
FCST AREA BY 18Z. THIS WOULD SET UP A WINDOW OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE AFTN WITH HOT TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SFC FRONT WHICH SHOULD DRAPE FROM KLXN NORTH TO KANW. THE RUC THEN
SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND THE HRRR THEN
SUGGESTS PARTIAL DESTABILIZATION AND ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND
1.33 INCHES AND AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES NORTH...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WOULD APPEAR OPERATIVE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ITS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH
FORCING IS AVAILABLE THIS FAR SOUTH FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE
MODELS GO QUIET TONIGHT SUGGESTING A DIURNAL FORCING MECHANISM IS
UNDERWAY. SO THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY FORCED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. THE
CONVECTION WEAKENS THIS EVENING WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AND BY WEEKS END WILL BE
CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD. THROUGH MIDWEEK...TSTM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS IN FAIRLY FAST
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
HIGH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD BY WEEKS END...THE UPPER FLOW
DIMINISHES OVER OUR AREA WITH THE TSTM CHANCES SHIFTING NORTH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND EVEN A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA...AND SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS. AS MENTIONED WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY STRONG...AND BULK SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO HELP
SUSTAIN ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUITE STRONG...WITH MOISTURE/DEW POINTS POOLING INVOF THE THE
FRONT.
TEMPERATURE WISE...UNTIL THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS NORTH OVER THE AREA
BY WEEKS END...SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED. THEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...HOT WEATHER DEVELOPS. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF STRONG
HEATING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
335 AM PDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STORMS IN FAR EASTERN NEVADA MAY
BE STRONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUD EXISTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE PROGS
ARE SHOWING POSITIVE 1000-500 MUCAPE VALUES IN PORTIONS OF WHITE
PINE COUNTY THIS MORNING...WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP. HRRR ALSO DEPICTS THIS AND HAVE KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER IN
THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING FOR THIS AREA AND EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST COAST TROUGH SITTING ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AN UPPER JET ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY. CAPE VALUES OF 400-1000 J/KG...AS WELL AS 0-6KM SHEAR OF
35-40 KNOTS AND MODEST INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER
EASTERN NEVADA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE TARGET AREAS APPEAR TO BE EASTERN ELKO AND EASTERN WHITE PINE
COUNTIES. STORM MOTION IN THESE AREAS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE
FAST...WITH SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN...STORMS THAT
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THAT INITIATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
AFFECTED ZONES. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG WINDS TO 60 MPH WITH
SMALL HAIL. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING A TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT TO SET UP SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO INFILTRATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHICH WILL CREATE A DISTINCT LINE IN STORM FORMATION. HAVE
TRIED TO PAINT THIS IN THE POP GRIDS FOR TODAY.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET...WITH CLEARING
SKIES. ON SUNDAY...MODELS ARE FORECASTING HEIGHTS TO CLIMB ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA...UNDER A LOW-MID SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEVADA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL DRY OUT AS
PW`S DROP TO .50" OR LESS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE
REGION. ON FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
POTENTIAL SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DRY IT WILL
BE...SO THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THAT WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. KELY WILL HAVE A 20 TO
25 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. KEKO IS NOT EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS BUT A STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP NEARBY IN THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
THE MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER ZONES 469...470...AND 455 IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF 454
AND 455.
DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN FIRE ZONES 455...469...AND 470. COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LAL`S TO 2. HEIGHTS BUILD DURING THE
WEEK...WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES HEADING BACK UP TO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOOK FOR POSSIBLE BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
86/90/90/86
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST
AIR GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES. THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DRIER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH MID-MORNING SHOWS THE ENTIRE CWA DRY.
MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER...WITH PERSISTENT STRATUS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING A LITTLE OVER
THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEGLIGIBLE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
FOR ANY RAIN TODAY...WITH MAIN ATTENTION FOCUSED ON THE MESOSCALE
FOR ANY TRIGGERS. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AGAIN
INLAND FROM LAKE INFLUENCES GIVEN UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S.
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN PLACE...CLIMATOLOGY TELLS US A BAND
OF CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT FUNNELS UP LAKE ERIE. THIS BOUNDARY
TYPICALLY SETS UP FROM NEAR ERIE PA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN A
SW/NE ORIENTATION AND INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES. MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUCH AS OUR 6KM WORKSTATION WRF...4KM EXPERIMENTAL SPC
WRF...AND THE HOURLY UPDATED HRRR RUNS FOCUS MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
SECOND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NEAR ROCHESTER EAST INTO CENTRAL
NY AS A LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SPARSE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY.
GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONGST VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS...WILL INDICATE
A STRIP OF LIKELY POPS FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CHANCE
POPS SURROUNDING THIS AREA EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BUFFALO AREA DRY.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...A PUSH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND
KEEP THAT AREA DRY AS WELL.
PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.8 INCHES OR SO TODAY...WHICH IS 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ANY STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY
FLOOD RISK MINOR...UNLESS TRAINING DEVELOPS ALONG ANY OF THE
BOUNDARIES NOTED ABOVE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT ONE OR TWO STORMS WHICH LATCH ONTO
BOUNDARIES MAY INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL OR A WET
MICROBURST.
THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD BE
DONE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. 850MB-700MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE
25-30 KNOT RANGE...WHICH WILL AID IN INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM AND SULTRY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW WHICH HAVE BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWESTERN STATES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A VARIETY OF WEAK...AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME...IMPULSES LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.
THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN
PA/SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT EAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THE INCREASE IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE NIGHT
DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ON MONDAY AND GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PWAT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AT TIMES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
ASSOCIATED ISOLATED FLOOD RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING OCCURS ALONG ANY OF THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES.
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
DURING THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT...IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY POOL SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
AND ENHANCE PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL
TRANSITION TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...CHARACTERIZED BY A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON
TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ON TUESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
WITH A LOWERING RAIN CHANCE AS THE DAY AND EVENING PROGRESS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS QUEBEC
AND THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS. WHILE THE TROUGH MAY ENHANCE INSTABILITY...THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR
MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. LINGERING AREAS OF STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BURN OFF THROUGH LATE MORNING...HOWEVER THIS COULD BE FOLLOWED BY
A MVFR STRATO-CU CLOUD DECK ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE. BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
WE DO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TODAY SHOULD
BE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE WITH THE BEST
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES. A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY PROVIDE A
SECONDARY LESSER FOCUS FROM NEAR KROC INTO CENTRAL NY. ANY OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...BUT THE BULK OF
THE TIME WILL BE VFR.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
THE NEXT PUSH OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP
WIND AND WAVES RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS TO BE SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE TIME WITH SOME
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES ON LAKE ONTARIO TURNING WINDS ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1037 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST
AIR GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES. THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE DRIER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH MID-MORNING SHOWS THE ENTIRE CWA DRY.
MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER...WITH PERSISTENT STRATUS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING A LITTLE OVER
THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEGLIGIBLE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
FOR ANY RAIN TODAY...WITH MAIN ATTENTION FOCUSED ON THE MESOSCALE
FOR ANY TRIGGERS. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AGAIN
INLAND FROM LAKE INFLUENCES GIVEN UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S.
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN PLACE...CLIMATOLOGY TELLS US A BAND
OF CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT FUNNELS UP LAKE ERIE. THIS BOUNDARY
TYPICALLY SETS UP FROM NEAR ERIE PA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN A
SW/NE ORIENTATION AND INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES. MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUCH AS OUR 6KM WORKSTATION WRF...4KM EXPERIMENTAL SPC
WRF...AND THE HOURLY UPDATED HRRR RUNS FOCUS MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
SECOND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NEAR ROCHESTER EAST INTO CENTRAL
NY AS A LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SPARSE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY.
GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONGST VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS...WILL INDICATE
A STRIP OF LIKELY POPS FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CHANCE
POPS SURROUNDING THIS AREA EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE SHOULD
STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BUFFALO AREA DRY.
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...A PUSH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND
KEEP THAT AREA DRY AS WELL.
PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.8 INCHES OR SO TODAY...WHICH IS 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ANY STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY
FLOOD RISK MINOR...UNLESS TRAINING DEVELOPS ALONG ANY OF THE
BOUNDARIES NOTED ABOVE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT ONE OR TWO STORMS WHICH LATCH ONTO
BOUNDARIES MAY INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL OR A WET
MICROBURST.
THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD BE
DONE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. 850MB-700MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE
25-30 KNOT RANGE...WHICH WILL AID IN INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM AND SULTRY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW WHICH HAVE BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWESTERN STATES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A VARIETY OF WEAK...AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME...IMPULSES LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.
THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN
PA/SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT EAST INTO
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THE INCREASE IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE NIGHT
DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ON MONDAY AND GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PWAT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AT TIMES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
ASSOCIATED ISOLATED FLOOD RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING OCCURS ALONG ANY OF THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES.
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
DURING THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT...IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY POOL SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
AND ENHANCE PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL
TRANSITION TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...CHARACTERIZED BY A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON
TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ON TUESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
WITH A LOWERING RAIN CHANCE AS THE DAY AND EVENING PROGRESS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS QUEBEC
AND THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS. WHILE THE TROUGH MAY ENHANCE INSTABILITY...THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR
MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR. AN AREA OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD ADVECT EAST OF THE AREA AND BURN OFF BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AS WELL. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TODAY
SHOULD BE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE WITH THE
BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES. A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY PROVIDE A SECONDARY
LESSER FOCUS FROM NEAR KROC INTO CENTRAL NY. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE
VFR.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
THE NEXT PUSH OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP
WIND AND WAVES RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS TO BE SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE TIME WITH SOME
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES ON LAKE ONTARIO TURNING WINDS ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1024 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
MUCH UNCERTAINITY IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT STORM WISE LATER
TODAY-THIS EVE. CURRENTLY HAVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN
NW MN....WITH A PERSISTANT AREAO F SHOWERS DTL-FAR BACK INTO
SOUTHERN BARNES COUNTY CLOSER A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE
ZONE AS WINDS NORTH OF THIS AREA MORE NORTHERLY AND WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS REGION MORE SOUTHERLY. ALSO HAVE STORMS IN SE SK WITH
WEAKENING SHOWERS INTO TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THIS AREA FROM SASK INTO
NORTH CENTRAL ND MORE ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW AND STRONGER SFC NR
REGINA. THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY STRONGEST FORCING INTO
MANITOBA AND FAR NRN ND.
OTHER AREA IS THAT SFC BOUNDARY IN SE ND AND RUC KEEPS IT THERE
THRU LATE TODAY AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. SOME CLEARING NOTED INTO CNTRL INTO ERN ND
OUTSIDE OF STORM AREAS AND THUS WILL SEE AREAS OF SFC HEATING AND
CAPES WITH DEW PTS IN THE HIGH 60S WILL REACH 2-3K J/KG. THUS
WOULD EXPECT SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT IN WRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND
MOVE EAST LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. A BIT HIGHER THREAT FOR SVR MIGHT BE
IN SE ND ALONG BOUNDARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS FOR ONGOING RADAR TRENDS. SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS ARE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS...BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON CONVECTION REDEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED TREND
OF POPS FILLING IN BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
WV LOOP SHOWS A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE COMING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS...WHICH HAS SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS STORMS
OVER SD HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE IS STILL OUT OVER MT...AND WHAT IT PRODUCES AS IT
MOVES OUT LATER TODAY WILL DEPEND MUCH ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT THIS
MORNING.
NONE OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE DOING A PARTICULARLY STELLAR JOB
HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING AS THEY HAVE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD. WILL HAVE TO MAKE
SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BEFORE SENDING EVERYTHING
OUT...BUT THINK THAT WIDELY SCATTERED REMNANTS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THINK THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT AND
DESTABILIZE OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
AROUND 2000 J/KG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO
BE PUSHING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATION AS TO EXACTLY WHERE.
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...BUT WITH THE
WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY WILL BE FAIRLY
HIGH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND MAIN SFC LOW HEAD IN THAT DIRECTION...SO KEPT POPS
MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER. NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE CWA AND THEN WASHING OUT. HAVE SOME LOW POPS LINGERING IN
THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL AFTER TONIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE A DRY TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS AND LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL
KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S. THE WEAK FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS
ONLY A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES AND MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE
TIMING OF MINOR SHORTWAVES THROUGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND CONVECTION. FOR NOW KEPT POPS PRETTY LOW. MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO SASK/MT MONDAY NIGHT SO WENT WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATEST
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 70S OVER THE NORTH TO THE
80S SOUTH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO LINGER SOME PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SO KEPT LOW POPS. HOWEVER...WED/THU LOOK
MOSTLY DRY...WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY LATE WEEK. GENERALLY...IT APPEARS THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND FLATTEN WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH CONVECTION FIRING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES...AND RIDING THE THICKNESS GRADIENT SOUTH AND EAST ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE DOME OF HOT AIR. DO MENTION SOME LOW POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH
THIS SORT OF PATTERN IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SHOWERS AND VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE WILL
BE A BREAK IN PRECIP FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED SO JUST KEPT
MENTION AT VCTS FOR NOW. CONDITIIONS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR
SOME BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR UNDER THE HEAVIER CELLS. CONVECTION WILL
END OVER ALL BUT AROUND KBJI BY AROUND 06Z OR SO.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
LOCAL DOT CAMERAS SHOW DENSE FOG NEAR MARMARTH...AND BAKER MT ALSO
HAS DENSE FOG. ADDED SOME FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST FRO THE MORNING.
LATEST RUC MODEL HAS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME. SEEING SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL IN RESPONSE. FOCUSED ON THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE AGAIN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...TIMING
AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS W/NW FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF GLASGOW. IF
THIS HOLDS TOGETHER IT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN ND EARLY
THIS MORNING. NAM APPEARED TO INITIALIZE IT AND WEAKENS IT AS IT
APPROACHES OUR CWA. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH PROGRESSION OF WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS ND TODAY. BY 18Z MODELS
HAVE N/S ORIENTED FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ND. SURFACE BASED
CAPE IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHES 2000 J/KG WITH
30-40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR IN PLACE. BY 00Z FRONT IS ALMOST OUT OF
OUR CWA SO ANY SEVERE RISK SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING. SPC
CONTINUES TO DEPICT SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF CWA WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE BIGGEST THREAT...THOUGH THEY DO
ALSO HAVE A SMALL 5 PCT AREA FOR TORNADOES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA.
FOR TONIGHT...CONTINUED TO TAPER POPS DOWNWARD AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING SW ND LATE
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A SMALL AREA OF LOW
POPS OVER EXTREME SW ND LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE THOUGH MID WEEK THEN STRONG
MID LEVEL RIDGING CUTS OFF THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR AWHILE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED INCLUDE A LARGE
H500 RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR CONSISTENT ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO
GENERATE HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION PROBABLY FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
LIKELY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
BUT A BETTER AND MORE SHARPLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SPC ALSO HAS SEVERE WEATHER IN THE OUTLOOK FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.
BY WEDNESDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE REGION AND THERE
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
A RETURN TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT MAINLY 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...BELIEVE THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE MORE ACTIVE...AND
UTILIZED VCTS AT KMOT. THEN SEE KBIS-KJMS BEING THE FOCUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STILL USED VCTS FOR TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST SAT JUL 6 2013
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN SPRAWLED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. MONSOON
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE FAVORABLE MONSOON
PATTERN IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHERN CA TO CENTRAL AZ. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS THE
PRESENCE OF A DIFFUSE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ACROSS SW AZ AND
PERHAPS A WEAK VORT MAX NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER. WEAK DIFFLUENCE IS
ALSO APPARENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DISPLACED TO THE
EAST. ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA...LATEST GPS-IPW AT TEMPE REGISTERED
NEAR 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 150% OF NORMAL AND JUST ABOUT THE
HIGHEST IT HAS BEEN ALL SUMMER.
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF PIMA
COUNTY...BUT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HINDERED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH A DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ALBEIT AROUND 5
KT...CELLS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO PINAL
AND SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTIES. LATEST KPHX AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AND A LACK OF A CAPPING INVERSION WITH SBCAPE >
800 J/KG. SPC RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE > 1000 J/KG WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
POPS WERE INCREASED EARLIER TODAY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING TO AROUND 20-30 PERCENT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GILA BEND TO
GLOBE. THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS INCLUDING DOWNBURST WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST WILL ALSO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...CONSEQUENTLY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE
TERRAIN FORCED AND WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE DESERTS. POPS WERE
ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TODAYS 00Z
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO COME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. I THINK ITS
CONCEIVABLE MOST DESERT LOCATIONS COULD BE BACK ABOVE THE 110 DEGREE
MARK FOR A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT LOOKING AT EXCESSIVE
HEAT LEVELS. TEMPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BASED ON BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.
YESTERDAY THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ADVERTISED AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. TODAYS
MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A SIMILAR SOLUTION...PERHAPS MORE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY INSTEAD. GFS STILL LOOKS DRIER THAN THE
EUROPEAN...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FROM BOTH MODELS
AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT STILL TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
ANTICIPATE THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LESSER ACTIVITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. GIVEN THE WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOWS...STORMS COULD FORM/DRIFT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS NEAR KPHX
KIWA AND KSDL. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT...LOCAL
CIGS DOWN TO 9KFT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40KT AND MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITY DOWN TO LESS THAN 1SM FOR A PERIOD OF TIME IN
DENSE BLOWING DUST. AFTER 08Z...ANTICIPATE THAT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...FAVORING EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTIONS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT
KIPL...AND A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT KBLH...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
110F ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RAPIDLY
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
NEW MEXICO/COLORADO...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR-NORMAL
VALUES BY FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL HOVER IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RISING TO THE MID 20S BY FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DIRECTIONS FAVORING THE WEST.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
135 PM MST SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN SPRAWLED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. MONSOON
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE FAVORABLE MONSOON
PATTERN IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHERN CA TO CENTRAL AZ. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS THE
PRESENCE OF A DIFFUSE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ACROSS SW AZ AND
PERHAPS A WEAK VORT MAX NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER. WEAK DIFFLUENCE IS
ALSO APPARENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DISPLACED TO THE EAST.
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA...LATEST GPS-IPW AT TEMPE REGISTERED NEAR
1.7 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 150% OF NORMAL AND JUST ABOUT THE HIGHEST
IT HAS BEEN ALL SUMMER.
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF PIMA
COUNTY...BUT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HINDERED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH A DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ALBEIT AROUND 5
KT...CELLS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO PINAL
AND SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTIES. LATEST KPHX AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AND A LACK OF A CAPPING INVERSION WITH SBCAPE >
800 J/KG. SPC RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE > 1000 J/KG WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
POPS WERE INCREASED EARLIER TODAY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING TO AROUND 20-30 PERCENT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GILA BEND TO
GLOBE. THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS INCLUDING DOWNBURST WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST WILL ALSO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL IN THESE AREAS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...CONSEQUENTLY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE
TERRAIN FORCED AND WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE DESERTS. POPS WERE
ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TODAYS 00Z
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO COME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. I THINK ITS
CONCEIVABLE MOST DESERT LOCATIONS COULD BE BACK ABOVE THE 110 DEGREE
MARK FOR A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT LOOKING AT EXCESSIVE
HEAT LEVELS. TEMPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BASED ON BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.
YESTERDAY THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ADVERTISED AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. TODAYS
MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A SIMILAR SOLUTION...PERHAPS MORE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY INSTEAD. GFS STILL LOOKS DRIER THAN THE
EUROPEAN...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FROM BOTH MODELS
AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT STILL TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ARIZONA SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW UNTIL MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MID
OR LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST AT THE
TERMINALS AS OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
PHOENIX AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS ON
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ONLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT KIPL...AND A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX FROM MONDAY ONWARD INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO 110F...OR WARMER EACH DAY AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR-NORMAL
VALUES BY FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DIRECTIONS
FAVORING THE WEST.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
438 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
DISTURBED WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
INTO THIS EVENING...
WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY PRESSING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ACTING AS A FOCUS OF A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE A
PUSH AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE DISTURBANCE AND DRY SINKING AIRMASS TO
THE REAR /NOTABLY THE DIMINISHING CUMULUS FIELD IN WAKE ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND THE DRY PUNCH BENEATH H5 IN THE 12Z BUFFALO UPPER-
AIR SOUNDING/.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AS
INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL IN A REGION OF WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN DOING THE BEST IN FORECASTING THIS SITUATION.
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK AND WILL HOLD
WITH PRESENT HEAT ADVISORIES. MANY LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES OF 90 DEGREES FOR A 3RD OR 4TH STRAIGHT DAY...PUTTING
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY DEFINITION IN A HEAT WAVE.
TONIGHT...
OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING
ALLOWING THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. AS A
RESULT...MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE
REGION... AND COUPLED WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER MILD EVENING WITH MINS AROUND THE UPPER 60S. A
DRY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW. GREATEST FOG THREAT WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE...ESPECIALLY OVER NANTUCKET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY...
WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...
SUBSEQUENT WARM-AIR ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD HOLDS THE RIDGE STEADY
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE OF THE WEATHER OUTCOMES IS WAVERING.
THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS KEY...WHETHER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH GETS INTO NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE IT
APPEARS RIDGING PREVAILS AS H5 TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM
DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY MAY BE SUPPRESSED
ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING IT WEST.
ASSUMING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS NY/PA FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND ARE UNDER
THE GREATEST THREAT...MAINLY HEAVY RAIN /PWATS AROUND 1.5 - 1.75
INCHES/ AND GUSTY WINDS. THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME DIURNAL
MIXING. WITH THIN CAPE COUPLED WITH MINOR UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY
SHEAR...ANTICIPATING PULSE TO MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION WHICH MAY
NOT SUSTAIN WELL OR LONG ENOUGH. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND LIFT SIT NORTH AND WEST
OF THE REGION. WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY SURFACE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN AS AN
AID TO INVIGORATING POTENTIAL WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN AROUND THE LOW 90S...FOR SOME LOCATIONS
THIS WILL BE THE 5TH DAY IN A ROW. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. WILL ALLOW THE EVENING CREW TO TAKE A LOOK AT
TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY AND EVALUATE WHETHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NECESSARY. FOR NOW A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ADDRESS THE ANTICIPATED HEAT FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...
OHIO VALLEY REGION TROUGH PUSHES WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS RESULTING IN INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING AND
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ON THE REGIONS WEATHER. IT APPEARS THAT
MID-LEVEL ENERGY LAGS THE SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTIALLY IT COULD
REMAIN QUIET AFTER ALL DAYTIME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES /THAT IS IF IT INITIATES/. HAVE KEPT THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR WEATHER ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOULD BE A LOT OF CLOUDS WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE
OF THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT WITH MINS AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK UNDER WESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... 06/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS
WITH TIMING...WHICH LEADS TO ONLY AN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. 06/12Z
ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER TO PROGRESS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EAST THAN THE
GFS...BUT PERHAPS A BIT TOO SLOW.06/12Z GFS IS PERHAPS A LITTLE TOO
FAST BUT DOES HAVE DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS MEAN. THE 06/12Z
NAM LOOKED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE TIMING THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE TIMING AS DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION.
ESSENTIALLY...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BERMUDA HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
DETAILS...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL LIKELY SPARK CONVECTION MONDAY. THE ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED WITH A COLD POOL MOVING NEARBY. THERE
SHOULD STILL BE SOME PROTECTIVE RIDGING TOWARD THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE MEAGER AT ABOUT 5.5-6.0C/KM. SHOULD THE SUN
BREAK OUT...ML CAPE VALUES COULD APPROACH 1000-1500J/KG...AND SHEAR
MAGNITUDES APPROACH 35-40 KT. THEREFORE...HOW STRONG THE CONVECTION
IS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER INITIALLY...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM TO BECOME SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED. HEAVY RAIN STILL THE BIGGEST THREAT THOUGH WITH PWAT
VALUES APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN
WX WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MORE STORMS COULD FIRE ON TUE...BUT A WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE BEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND
FOCUS FOR LIFT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY.
WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE TO PASS WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. A SFC WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
LIKELY CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE IS
STILL A BIT IN QUESTION AS IT WILL BE DETERMINED ON HOW AMPLIFIED
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GETS BY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL ERR TOWARD
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH SUGGEST FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ANY
CASE...ANOTHER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY HUMID HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY...GUSTING AT TIMES AROUND
20 KTS. MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON OUTCOMES...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH MAINLY
WESTERN INTERIOR TERMINALS BEING IMPACTED. PREVAILED WITH VCSH.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CIGS. MAIN
CONCERN IS FOG ALONG THE SOUTH-SHORE. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE OF
TRENDS KEEPING KACK AT MVFR VSBYS WITH IFR CIGS WHICH WAS THE
OUTCOME LAST NIGHT.
A REPEAT OF SATURDAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THOUGH THE CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA INCREASE. GREATER CONFIDENCE IS UPON WESTERN INTERIOR
AND THOSE TERMINALS NORTH OF THE MASS-PIKE BEING IMPACTED. HAVE
PREVAILED VCSH FOR KBDL. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20
KTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING PERIOD FOR THE SAME
TERMINALS IMPACTED SUNDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THOUGH WINDS HAVE BACKED
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NW...WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. PREVAIL VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
OF ANY LOWER CATEGORIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST.
MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH AFTN/EVE.
FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP MOST NIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL
LIMIT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH-SHORE...CAPE AND ISLANDS. FOG
MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR FOG TO IMPACT NANTUCKET.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING SWELL WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO REACH ABOUT 5 FT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KT...EXCEPT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS SURROUNDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WHERE A FEW GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 25 KT MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS
MAY CAUSE OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDS OFFICIAL CLIMATE
SITES FOR JULY 5TH THROUGH THE 10TH
BOS PVD ORH BDL
6TH 101/1911 102/2010 102/2010 98/1911
7TH 99/1953 97/1993* 100/2010 95/1908
8TH 99/1937 99/1981 97/1993 97/1936*
9TH 99/1981* 99/1981 99/1936* 96/1937
10TH 101/1880 100/1993 100/1936* 95/1936*
* AND PREVIOUS YEARS
ALSO...SINCE WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 90 DEGREES...HERE ARE THE LONGEST HEAT WAVES IN THE HISTORY
OF OUR 4 CLIMATE SITES.
HARTFORD/BRADLEY
JULY 24-AUGUST 2, 1995 - 10 DAYS
AUGUST 11-19, 2002 - 9 DAYS
AUGUST 27-SEPTEMBER 4, 1973 - 9 DAYS
JULY 27-AUGUST 3, 2006 - 8 DAYS
JULY 29-AUGUST 5, 2002 - 8 DAYS
JULY 16-23, 1991 - 8 DAYS
JULY 24-31, 1970 - 8 DAYS
AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 4, 1953 - 8 DAYS
AUGUST 10-17, 1944 - 8 DAYS
WORCESTER/AIRPORT
AUGUST 10-17, 1944 - 8 DAYS
JULY 4-11, 1912 - 8 DAYS
JUNE 26-JULY 3, 1901 - 8 DAYS
AUGUST 10-15, 1988 - 6 DAYS
JULY 25-29, 1963 - 5 DAYS
BOSTON/LOGAN AIRPORT
JULY 3-11, 1912 - 9 DAYS
AUGUST 11-18, 2002 - 8 DAYS
JULY 19-26, 1994 - 8 DAYS
AUGUST 10-17, 1944 - 8 DAYS
JUNE 28-JULY 5, 1872 - 8 DAYS
PROVIDENCE/T.F. GREEN
JULY 12-20, 1952 - 9 DAYS
JULY 28-AUGUST 3, 2006 - 7 DAYS
AUGUST 13-19, 2002 - 7 DAYS
JULY 15-21, 1977 - 7 DAYS
AUGUST 11-17, 1944 - 7 DAYS
JULY 7-13, 1944 - 7 DAYS
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-010-
011-013>019.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...WFO BOX STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
200 PM UPDATE...
MONITORING VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...CUMULUS IS BUBBLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS ACROSS UPSTATE NY IT
IS SUPPRESSED. FROM NEAR-TERM FORECAST SOLUTIONS...FEEL THIS IS AN
OUTCOME OF SINKING DRIER AIR TO THE REAR OF A MID-LEVEL WEAK WAVE
IMPULSE /SEE THE DRY AIR INTRUSION JUST BELOW H5 IN THE BUFFALO NY
12Z SOUNDING/. THIS WAVE CONSEQUENTIALLY MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
IN MORE DETAIL...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE AROUND 1K-2K J/KG IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK DEEP-LAYER UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. IF THE WEAK
IMPULSE CAN PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING...THEN WIDESPREAD PULSE-LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK AND MOST OF THE FORCING
WILL BE SIMPLY A RESULT OF RISING THERMALS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUGGEST MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS A RESULT
OF RISING THERMALS AS MODEL REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT ILLUSTRATES WIDE-
SPREAD DISCREET SHOWERS. SOME ACTIVITY IS PREVALENT ON RADAR
ACROSS BERKSHIRE COUNTY AS OF 145 PM. ACTIVITY ACROSS VT/NH HASN/T
EXHIBITED MUCH MUSTER...WITH MANY OF THE SHOWERS QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AFTER GENERATION.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK AND WILL HOLD WITH
PRESENT HEAT ADVISORIES. MANY LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES
OF 90 DEGREES FOR A 3RD OR 4TH STRAIGHT DAY...PUTTING MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY DEFINITION IN A HEAT WAVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG BUT THE
WEST WIND AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM NEW YORK MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT
OF ANY FOG. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BACK IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM HUMID SIDE OF THE
FRONT WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER STILL SUPPORTING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S. IF CLOUDS FILL IN TOO FAST THEN MAX
TEMPS MAY FALL SHORT OF 90...BUT WE ARE GOING WITH THE SUNNIER AND
BETTER MIXED SCENARIO.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN CAMPED OUT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL EJECT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL EACH HAVE
ASSOCIATED UPPER JETS PROVIDING SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT. THE
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUPY WITH PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES...SO
PRIME POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS/FLASH FLOODING.
SURFACE BASED CAPE FORECASTS SHOW 1500-3000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR
SHOWS 30-40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN SECTIONS. THIS WILL MEAN A
SECONDARY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE WIND
DAMAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WARM AND HUMID CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY INTERIOR
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING DEEPER AND DEEPER
WITH LONGWAVE NRN CANADIAN TROF THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE
CONSEQUENCE APPEARS TO BE THAT THE BROAD E CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS
GRIP THROUGH THE LONG TERM SUCH THAT A WEAK ZONAL JET PATTERN WILL
BE FULLY IN CONTROL BY MID WEEK. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECENS AND GFS
ALSO SUPPORT THEIR OPERATIONAL BRETHREN THAT A SHIFT IN THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME BY LATE WEEK WOULD FEATURE A BROAD TROF
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CANADIAN TROF. WHILE
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY STRUGGLES TO HANDLE BROAD PATTERN CHANGES IN
THE EXTENDED...SINCE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT ACROSS THE
BOARD...HAVE A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL REGARDING A STRONG
LOW PRES AND IT/S ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS AFFECTING THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A
DRIER AND ULTIMATELY COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. HPC
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECENS ENSEMBLES AND A BLEND OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF...SO IN TANDEM WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER...WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HPC AND A BLEND OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR THIS UPDATE.
ESSENTIALLY...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED RIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND. MON APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INITIALLY AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTION ON TUE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LOWER. THEN...FOR WED-WEEKEND...A
STRONGER LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER TROF RIDGING THE WEAK JET
WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH...THEN A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEK. STILL SOME PLAYERS YET TO LINE
UP...BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. DO HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE HOWEVER...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE WARM...BUT A BIT
COOLER THAN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
DETAILS...
SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...
SUN NIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER SOMEWHAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THANKS TO NEAR 30 KT SHEAR AND ML CAPE VALUES HOLDING AROUND 1000
J/KG INITIALLY. HOWEVER...SHOULD BE SOME LATE NIGHT DRYING AS
MESOSCALE RIDGING BUILDS OVER BEHIND THE EXITING CONVECTION. ON
MON HOWEVER...WITH THE TROF THAT SPARKED THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY...AND A SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE
THROUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE GIVEN LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT ABOUT 5.5-6.0C/KM.
SHOULD THE SUN BREAK OUT...ML CAPE VALUES LOOK TO APPROACH
1000-1500J/KG...AND SHEAR MAGNITUDES APPROACH 35-40 KT.
THEREFORE...HOW STRONG THE CONVECTION IS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER INITIALLY...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED. HEAVY RAIN
STILL THE BIGGEST THREAT THOUGH WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2.0
INCHES...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN WX WITH ANY T-STORMS.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MORE STORMS COULD FIRE ON TUE...BUT WEAK
MID LVL RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE BEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR/AND
FOCUS FOR LIFT TO THE N DURING THE DAY. WILL LOWER POPS SOMEWHAT
FROM THOSE ON MON. IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WOULD BE
LESS.
WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...
BROAD TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN IN VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALLOWING A LOW PRES CENTER TO PASS WELL N AND
W OF THE REGION. A SFC WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY CROSS
THE REGION ON WED INTO EARLY THU. THIS COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/T-STORMS AND ALLOW ALLOW FOR MID LVL
TEMPS TO REACH THOSE SIMILAR TO LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...A FEW TEMPS THU COULD APPROACH 90F WITH THE HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE. THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION AS IT WILL BE DETERMINED
ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE UPPER LVL PATTERN GETS BY NEXT WEEK...BUT FOR
NOW WILL ERR TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH SUGGEST FRI OR FRI
NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER THREAT FOR STORMS AND RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY...GUSTING AT TIMES AROUND
20 KTS. MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON OUTCOMES...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH MAINLY
WESTERN INTERIOR TERMINALS BEING IMPACTED. PREVAILED WITH VCSH.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CIGS. MAIN
CONCERN IS FOG ALONG THE SOUTH-SHORE. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE OF
TRENDS KEEPING KACK AT MVFR VSBYS WITH IFR CIGS WHICH WAS THE
OUTCOME LAST NIGHT.
A REPEAT OF SATURDAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...THOUGH THE CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA INCREASE. GREATER CONFIDENCE IS UPON WESTERN INTERIOR
AND THOSE TERMINALS NORTH OF THE MASS-PIKE BEING IMPACTED. HAVE
PREVAILED VCSH FOR KBDL. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20
KTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING PERIOD FOR THE SAME
TERMINALS IMPACTED SUNDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THOUGH WINDS HAVE BACKED
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NW...WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. PREVAIL VCSH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
OF ANY LOWER CATEGORIES THROUGH THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORECAST.
MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH AFTN/EVE.
FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP MOST NIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THIS HAPPENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL
LIMIT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OR THE LOW 20S ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG WILL HAVE LESS
OF A PRESENCE THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT PATCHES MAY LINGER
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING SWELL WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO REACH ABOUT 5 FT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ON
THE WATERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS SAVE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SURROUNDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...WHERE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS MAY CAUSE
OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDS OFFICIAL CLIMATE
SITES FOR JULY 5TH THROUGH THE 10TH
BOS PVD ORH BDL
6TH 101/1911 102/2010 102/2010 98/1911
7TH 99/1953 97/1993* 100/2010 95/1908
8TH 99/1937 99/1981 97/1993 97/1936*
9TH 99/1981* 99/1981 99/1936* 96/1937
10TH 101/1880 100/1993 100/1936* 95/1936*
* AND PREVIOUS YEARS
ALSO...SINCE WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 90 DEGREES...HERE ARE THE LONGEST HEAT WAVES IN THE HISTORY
OF OUR 4 CLIMATE SITES.
HARTFORD/BRADLEY
JULY 24-AUGUST 2, 1995 - 10 DAYS
AUGUST 11-19, 2002 - 9 DAYS
AUGUST 27-SEPTEMBER 4, 1973 - 9 DAYS
JULY 27-AUGUST 3, 2006 - 8 DAYS
JULY 29-AUGUST 5, 2002 - 8 DAYS
JULY 16-23, 1991 - 8 DAYS
JULY 24-31, 1970 - 8 DAYS
AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 4, 1953 - 8 DAYS
AUGUST 10-17, 1944 - 8 DAYS
WORCESTER/AIRPORT
AUGUST 10-17, 1944 - 8 DAYS
JULY 4-11, 1912 - 8 DAYS
JUNE 26-JULY 3, 1901 - 8 DAYS
AUGUST 10-15, 1988 - 6 DAYS
JULY 25-29, 1963 - 5 DAYS
BOSTON/LOGAN AIRPORT
JULY 3-11, 1912 - 9 DAYS
AUGUST 11-18, 2002 - 8 DAYS
JULY 19-26, 1994 - 8 DAYS
AUGUST 10-17, 1944 - 8 DAYS
JUNE 28-JULY 5, 1872 - 8 DAYS
PROVIDENCE/T.F. GREEN
JULY 12-20, 1952 - 9 DAYS
JULY 28-AUGUST 3, 2006 - 7 DAYS
AUGUST 13-19, 2002 - 7 DAYS
JULY 15-21, 1977 - 7 DAYS
AUGUST 11-17, 1944 - 7 DAYS
JULY 7-13, 1944 - 7 DAYS
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-010-
011-013>019.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>004.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
CLIMATE...WFO BOX STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND WX/POPS GRIDS TODAY. WILL CONTINUE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IL TODAY
MAINLY EAST OF I-55 WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF I-57 WHERE MORE
CLOUDS EXPECTED HERE AND COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F.
MORE SUNSHINE FROM I-55 WEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. RATHER
HUMID ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
579 DM 500 MB LOW OVER SE MO TO MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN IL THIS
EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. TROPICAL FETCH
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO/TN
VALLEYS AND INTO EASTERN IL AS WELL TO KEEP BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TIED TO THAT PART OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
MVFR TO VFR BROKEN CEILINGS 2.5-5K FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SE OF I-55...MAINLY AT DEC AND CMI AS 580 DM 500 LOW OVER SE MO
DRIFTS EAST INTO SOUTHERN IL THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
BY 18Z/1 PM SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR VSBYS FROM HEAVY RAINS WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-72 FROM MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET. SSW WINDS 5-10 KTS TO BECOME
LIGHT SOUTH AFTER SUNSET AS ISOLATED CONVECTION AND CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. SOME FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IL WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1-3 MILES.
HI- RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE
MS RIVER OF WEST CENTRAL IL AND SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL IL
DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS. WILL ADD VCSH AFTER 14Z/9 AM
SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT CMI AIRPORT.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...AS SHOWN BY WIDE SWATH OF 850MB DEWPOINTS
AROUND 15C FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST
OF THIS MOISTURE HAS REMAINED EAST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER SOME OF IT WILL GET PULLED A BIT FURTHER
WESTWARD TODAY AS PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI FINALLY
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM EARLIER THIS
EVENING SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW AROUND MEMPHIS TENNESSEE. THIS FEATURE
HAS PULLED QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AND IS BEGINNING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. 04Z HRRR PREDICTED THIS DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 06Z AND 07Z
QUITE NICELY...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST. SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
N/NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CURRENT TRAJECTORIES KEEPING
THE BULK OF THE RAIN ACROSS FAR SE ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA THIS
MORNING. AS UPPER LOW/COOL POOL ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON MOST HIGH-RES
MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED EAST OF
I-55. FOR POP FORECAST TODAY...HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FAR SE KILX CWA WHERE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL IMPACT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE AS FAR WEST AS I-55. AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST THIS EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD
OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AS
IT GRADUALLY GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD BY PREVAILING JET STREAM OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER FORCING
REMAINING IN PLACE AND NO SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
RISING HEIGHTS AND OTHER MITIGATING FACTORS...MODELS INSIST THAT
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT THINK SUNDAY WILL MAINLY BE A WARM
AND DRY DAY.
THINGS BEGIN TO GET A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BECOMES POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PARTICULAR PATTERN HAS BEEN QUITE COMMON OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS...AND HAS LED TO COPIOUS RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THIS PATTERN ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING
EXACT DETAILS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME PARTS
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WOULD
BE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
FAVORABLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST MODELS TRYING TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA OVERNIGHT THEN DROPPING REMNANTS INTO
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ACCORDINGLY...WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING
FURTHER E/SE ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTER ANOTHER MCS TRACKS E/SE OUT OF IOWA ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM-SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN FURTHER EAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING TO
INCLUDE ONLY THE FAR SE CWA. AFTER THAT...HAVE GONE DRY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
109 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
INDIANA WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO MIDWEEK. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS WAVES
ALOFT RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND DRIER WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
IT HAS BEEN A WET START FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH OF
THE WIDESPREAD AND LIGHTER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE
SCATTERED BUT HEAVIER FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPS
REMAINED IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT 14Z.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE IS TO INSERT SOME TIMING INTO PRECIP
COVERAGE GOING FORWARD AS MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALREADY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OHIO AT THIS TIME. HRRR HAS DONE A
REASONABLY GOOD JOB ON THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO THIS POINT...EVEN
CAPTURING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE HEAVIER SCATTERED CONVECTION
WHICH HAS MIGRATED NORTHWEST INTO THE WABASH VALLEY THIS MORNING
DESPITE SOME ERRORS IN LOCATION AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN
CATEGORICAL POPS AT LEAST INITIALLY OVER EASTERN COUNTIES TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING PRECIP...BUT WILL TREND BACK TO CHANCE POPS
OVER ENTIRE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO
THE N/NE. ADDITIONAL FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH PEAK HEATING...EXPECT TO
SEE ISOLATED THUNDER DESPITE THE THICK CLOUD COVER. PULLED TEMPS
BACK A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S TODAY.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS RAIN CHANCES.
ALL MODELS MOVE MOISTURE OUT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MET AND ECM
START WITH MORE. VERY SHARP DROP IN MET POPS COMPARED TO DAYTIME
PERIOD SEEMS A LITTLE TOO MUCH SINCE MOISTURE STILL FAIRLY HIGH AT
00Z. MAV POPS LOOK BETTER CONSIDERING THIS LINE OF THOUGHT. ENOUGH
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SO PARTLY CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT
WELL ORGANIZED FORCING DOESNT OCCUR WITH ANY MODEL SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED STUFF FIRING DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. GOING
WITH WHICHEVER GUIDANCE IS WETTER. EVEN WHERE IT DOESN`T
RAIN...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND DURING DAYS. WILL BE CLEARER AT
NIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG.
NAM COOLER THAN OTHER MODELS AT 850...ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY.
MAINLY GOING MAV TEMPS. SOMEHOW MET DOES STAY WARMER THAN MAV
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SEEMS SO OUT OF SYNC WITH WHAT IT IS DOING
OTHERWISE WILL STICK WITH MAV FOR THEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ALONG WITH QPF...AND THEY ARE NOT FAR OFF THE CONSISTENT ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. GFS AND ECMWF MAINLY DIFFER IN HANDLING OF AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE 00Z GFS MUCH
QUICKER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. VARIOUS IMPULSES IN FAST NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW ALSO DIFFER AND NORMALLY DO WITH THAT TYPE OF FLOW.
STILL...BOTH MODELS HAVE QPF THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH MATCHES
NICELY WITH THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION AND FORECAST CONSISTENCY.
THE EXTENDED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE LIGHT RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH UPPER FLOW...JUST NORTHWEST OF ZONAL...
DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK WESTERN RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS RISING TEMPERATURES AND
THEREFORE INSTABILITY. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL LIFT THE WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AND TRIGGER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT
SMALL POPS SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT ON THURSDAY PER MODELS AND
ALLBLEND...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE WEEK.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...REGIONAL INITIALIZATION OUTPUT LOOKS GOOD
WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND IT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 0618Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 101 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER/AROUND THE TAF SITES
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. VFR TO MVFR CAN
BE EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP THE VCTS
GOING FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE TONIGHT BUT LITTLE FORCING AVAILABLE AND WINDS LESS THAN 5
KTS EXPECT TO SEE SOME IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
500 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW H5 RIDGE STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERLY
NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NW KS AND SE CO.
DESPITE LITTLE BEING APPARENT IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD BEYOND SOME
WEAK RIPPLES WV IMAGERY AND PV/VORT FIELDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
RIDGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER OUR CWA BY THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION. I COULDNT RULE OUT BETTER COVERAGE THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY ACTING TO AID THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. I STILL EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
INITIALLY START OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD EAST WITH SHORTWAVE. LATEST HRRR/RAP SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY 00-03Z AS THIS INTERACTS WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS AND BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PART
OF CWA. THERE IS SOME LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LLJ IS EAST OF CWA ALONG WITH BEST ISOTROPIC
SUPPORT...SO BEYOND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH SHORTWAVE
LATE TONIGHT IN THE EAST WITH SHORTWAVE I THINK MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE TAPERING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
HODOGRAPHS/SHEER PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND WITH MARGINAL CAPE
I AM NOT SURE WE WOULD SEE MUCH OF A SEVERE HAIL RISK. INVERTED V
TYPE SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE RAISE
CONCERNS FOR SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL WITH ANY COLLAPSING UPDRAFTS...SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WITH LITTLE CHANGING REGARDING LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND MODELS
INDICATING POSSIBLE EARLIER INITIATION SUN I KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TIMING. HOT AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE SUN...WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR. FEWER CLOUDS...AND WE SHOULD
AGAIN SEE HIGHS APPROACH 100F ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
BE THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS
BEING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
VFR EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC TROUGH WITH
LGT/VRB WINDS TO LINGER NEAR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10KTS OR SO. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PINPOINTING
WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL RATHER
DIFFICULT. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TSRA
MENTION IN EITHER TAF.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
100 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW H5 RIDGE STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERLY
NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NW KS AND SE CO.
DESPITE LITTLE BEING APPARENT IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD BEYOND SOME
WEAK RIPPLES WV IMAGERY AND PV/VORT FIELDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
RIDGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER OUR CWA BY THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION. I COULDNT RULE OUT BETTER COVERAGE THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY ACTING TO AID THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. I STILL EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
INITIALLY START OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD EAST WITH SHORTWAVE. LATEST HRRR/RAP SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY 00-03Z AS THIS INTERACTS WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS AND BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PART
OF CWA. THERE IS SOME LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LLJ IS EAST OF CWA ALONG WITH BEST ISOTROPIC
SUPPORT...SO BEYOND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH SHORTWAVE
LATE TONIGHT IN THE EAST WITH SHORTWAVE I THINK MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE TAPERING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
HODOGRAPHS/SHEER PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND WITH MARGINAL CAPE
I AM NOT SURE WE WOULD SEE MUCH OF A SEVERE HAIL RISK. INVERTED V
TYPE SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE RAISE
CONCERNS FOR SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL WITH ANY COLLAPSING UPDRAFTS...SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WITH LITTLE CHANGING REGARDING LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND MODELS
INDICATING POSSIBLE EARLIER INITIATION SUN I KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TIMING. HOT AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE SUN...WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR. FEWER CLOUDS...AND WE SHOULD
AGAIN SEE HIGHS APPROACH 100F ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
BE THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS
BEING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIDGE...BUT WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
DIRECTLY OVER BOTH TERMINALS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6KT. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS
HIGH BASED (10-15FT) THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG TROUGH AXIS. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
VCTS...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED SO TIMING AND OCCURRENCE
AT EITHER TERMINAL WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
BEGINS TO INITIATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1251 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW H5 RIDGE STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERLY
NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NW KS AND SE CO.
DESPITE LITTLE BEING APPARENT IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD BEYOND SOME
WEAK RIPPLES WV IMAGERY AND PV/VORT FIELDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
RIDGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER OUR CWA BY THIS
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD HELP INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION. I COULDNT RULE OUT BETTER COVERAGE THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY ACTING TO AID THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. I STILL EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
INITIALLY START OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD EAST WITH SHORTWAVE. LATEST HRRR/RAP SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY 00-03Z AS THIS INTERACTS WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS AND BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PART
OF CWA. THERE IS SOME LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LLJ IS EAST OF CWA ALONG WITH BEST ISOTROPIC
SUPPORT...SO BEYOND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH SHORTWAVE
LATE TONIGHT IN THE EAST WITH SHORTWAVE I THINK MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE TAPERING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
HODOGRAPHS/SHEER PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND WITH MARGINAL CAPE
I AM NOT SURE WE WOULD SEE MUCH OF A SEVERE HAIL RISK. INVERTED V
TYPE SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE RAISE
CONCERNS FOR SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL WITH ANY COLLAPSING UPDRAFTS...SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WITH LITTLE CHANGING REGARDING LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND MODELS
INDICATING POSSIBLE EARLIER INITIATION SUN I KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TIMING. HOT AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE SUN...WITH EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR. FEWER CLOUDS...AND WE SHOULD
AGAIN SEE HIGHS APPROACH 100F ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
THE MAIN UPPER FLOW PATTERN AT 500 MB FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRI STATE AREA. ZONAL FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY...THEN RIDGE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH
COULD SPARK AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. CENTER OF RIDGE AXIS
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS 500 MB HIGH CENTERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SOME
LOCAL VORT MAXES COULD PROGRESS INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONGER 850 JET INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT LINING UP FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. 850 THETA E VALUES BETWEEN
345 AND 355 K AND GFS SOUNDING SHOW SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM SUPPORT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA TUESDAY
EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL STALL AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH
COULD PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST FOR TUESDAY WITH VALUES
REACHING THE UPPER 90S. THE WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE LOWER 90S. STRONGEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA IS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ERODE STATIONARY
FRONT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND WILL PUSH BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS...DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SAT JUL 6 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
DIRECTLY OVER BOTH TERMINALS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6KT. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS
HIGH BASED (10-15FT) THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG TROUGH AXIS. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
VCTS...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED SO TIMING AND OCCURRENCE
AT EITHER TERMINAL WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
BEGINS TO INITIATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND LOWER HIGHS AS
PERSISTENT CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES AIDED BY A
WEAKENING AND VEERING LLJ WILL DAMPEN THE DIURNAL CLIMB. THE KRSL
AND KGRB AREAS MAY STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S BUT FURTHER
EAST LOWER 90S WILL BE MORE COMMON.
MWM
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
ELEVATED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO
THE AREA AGAIN...THIS TIME ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE RUC AND
HRRR SHOW MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SUPPORT FOR
THIS CONVECTION AS FAR EAST AS ABOUT THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THRU
MID-MORNING BEFORE WANING AGAIN BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND WILL TAKE A
MODIFIED PERSISTENCE TYPE APPROACH FOR MAXS WITH DIURNALLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AS WELL EACH DAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS COULD DRIFT CLOSE TO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS AS WELL...THOUGH WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND HANDLE ON
A SHORT TERM BASIS SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES A TOP THE ELONGATED WEST-EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW A MODEST COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH INTO KANSAS WITH VERY
SLIGHT AND RATHER BRIEF COOLING POSSIBLE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
GOING FORECAST WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS
WELL...BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND HEAT BUILD BACK
IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.
WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS IN THE 12K-15K FT RANGE HAVE LIMITED MIXING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALLOWING WIND
SPEEDS TO REMAIN LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WITH SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED LATE...SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 35 KT RANGE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS
AFTER 21-22Z...HOWEVER TRENDED SPEEDS DOWN DUE TO CLOUDS/SPRINKLES
AND LACK OF DEEP VERTICAL MIXING.
MWM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 91 73 98 74 / 20 20 20 10
HUTCHINSON 92 73 99 74 / 20 20 20 10
NEWTON 91 72 97 74 / 20 20 20 10
ELDORADO 91 72 97 73 / 20 20 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 91 73 97 75 / 20 10 10 10
RUSSELL 98 71 101 72 / 20 20 20 10
GREAT BEND 97 71 101 72 / 20 20 20 10
SALINA 92 73 100 74 / 20 20 20 10
MCPHERSON 91 73 100 74 / 20 20 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 92 71 96 73 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 91 70 94 72 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 91 69 93 72 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 91 71 95 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. EXPECT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
ORIENTED JUST OFFSHORE. TO THE WEST, A CLOSED LOW IS NOTED OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, THE
MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS CONFINED TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS,
EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE OHIO AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST NEEDED ATTM, W/GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY
SLOWLY NEWD TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS (PW VALUES OVER THE LOCAL AREA AOB 1.5 INCHES...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT). FORCING WILL REMAIN STRONGEST WELL TO OUR
WEST ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE. GIVEN THE LACK
OF APPRECIABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE LOCAL AREA,
EXPECTING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTN
W/LITTLE MORE THAN SOME DIURNAL CU THAT WL DIMINISH/DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. SOME ISOLATED SHRAS JUST SOUTH OF I-85 INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NC PIEDMONT. NEW HRRR KEEPS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
CWA, SO HAVE REMOVED SHRA MENTION FOR MOST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
MECKLENBERG/LUNENBURG COUNTIES.
MAINLY CLEAR, WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN AS WITH THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL ISSUES. ERY MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE SUMMER-
LIKE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS THE DAMPENING UPPER
LOW MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, A GRADUAL
PROGRESSION TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED
BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE DE-AMPLIFICATION
AND FORWARD MIGRATION OF THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WELL. THE LOW WILL
EJECT NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY, WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE OHIO VLY/NORTHERN MID-ATL SLOWLY ERODING/WEAKENING
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE LOCAL AREA THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. RESULT WILL SEE SFC HIGH BECOME SHUNTED SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL VEER WINDS AROUND TO THE
SW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC, AND EVENTUALLY WILL BRING A PROFILE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY LATER SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
RAIN CHCS SLOWLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. N-S ORIENTED MOISTURE
PLUME WILL BEGIN TO ORIENT MORE SW TO NE AND PROPAGATE NEWD IN
SWLY FLOW...REACHING THE ERN VA PIEDMONT BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT SUN AFTERNOON FOR
DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH WRN NC INTO WRN VA LATE
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE
SHORTWAVE AND LEE SIDE TROUGH AS THEY LIFT INTO THE REGION.
RETAINED SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POP OVERNIGHT SUNDAY/MON AS MODELS
SPREAD THE PRECIP INTO THE LOCAL AREA...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR
AS RICHMOND LATE SUN NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDWEST LOW WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT LIFTS
FROM THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE NE STATES ON MON.
DEVELOPING/INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL SERVE TO INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2
INCHES ON MON. THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS, IN TANDEM
W/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ALONG THE LEE TROUGH MON AFTN, WITH PCPN MOVING NEWD
INTO MONDAY EVENING. HV CONTINUED TO ORIENT BEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO N VA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE ALONG
THE AXIS OF BEST FORCING (40-50%). HV RETAINED LOWER/SLIGHT CHC
POP OVER SOUTHERN TIDEWATER/NE NC ZONES CONSIDERING PCPN TIMING
COINCIDING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKER DYNAMICS.
IF GFS IS CORRECT IN BRINGING SOME LATE MORNING CLEARING MONDAY,
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME STRONG TSTMS MONDAY AFTN. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DOES REMAIN MARGINAL (12Z/GFS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ~25-30
KT). HOWEVER, GIVEN STRONGER MID/UPR LVL WINDS W/PASSAGE OF UPPER
LOW AND SUFFICIENT CAPE (SREF PROBABILITIES SHOWS HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG INLAND), A FEW ISOLATED
STRONGER CELLS COULD DEVELOP. BRIEF HVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN W/ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...STEADY HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL
SUPPORT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUN/MON. EXPECT
DAYTIME TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S W/ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALLOWING SEASONABLY HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S W/ SOME MORE PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
TUESDAY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, UPPER FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL ALOFT FOR THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FORCING BECOMES A
LOT LESS FOCUSED BEHIND THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, GIVEN ANOTHER WARM
AND MODERATELY HUMID DAY...BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGHINESS AND
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES PUSHING ACROSS DURING THE PERIOD, EXPECT
THAT WE`LL STILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT TSRAS.
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN U80S COASTAL AREAS TO AROUND 90 INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF TUE NGT INTO WED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND AN UPR-LVL LO STARTING TO DIG OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHO BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STAY NW OF
THE LOCAL AREA WED...DID INCLUDE A 20-30% CHC FOR SHRAS/TSTMS DUE TO
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR. BETTER CHC FOR RAIN
(40-50%) COMES LATE THU AS THE UPR-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. THE
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN/STALL OVER THE AREA FRI (AND ALSO SAT?) LEADING
TO CONTINUED CHCS FOR SHRAS/TSTMS.
SLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT LO-LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HUMID
CONDS (DEWPTS AVG IN THE LWR 70S) WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S/LWR
90S AND LO TEMPS AVG IN THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT CU AND SW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF
SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. SOME VARIABILITY IS PSBL DURING
PART OF THE AFTN AT ORF BUT INDICATIONS OF A NE WIND DEVELOPING ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS THEY WERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...SIGNALS FOR FOG AND STRATUS ARE GETTING WEAKER
BY THE DAY. WITH THE GROUND DRYING OUT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ON THE RISE...FOG IS UNLIKELY. SOME PATCHY STRATUS IS PSBL...BUT ANY
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN IT HAS BEEN IN RECENT
DAYS.
OUTLOOK...THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY BUT THOSE
POSSIBILITIES INCREASE SHARPLY MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT RIC. A
CHANCE FOR SCT AFTN THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FCST THIS COMING
WEEK. NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS INDICATED THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENLY BENIGN SUB-SCA CONDS OVER THE MARINE AREA THRU AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA HI PRES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN/DRIFT EWRD
TNGT THRU SUN NGT AS UPR-LVL LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NO
STRONG SFC FRONT/FROPA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPR-LVL
SYSTM...MAINLY JUST A STATIONARY TROF OVER THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WILL AVG 10-15KT OUT OF THE
S/SW...BUT DIRECTIONS MAY SHIFT DURING THE AFTN HRS NEAR THE COAST
WITH SEA BREEZE EFFECTS (E.G. SERLY ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
BAY). EXPECT 1-2FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-3FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS...APPROACHING 4FT OUT 20NM ON MON.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
EQUIPMENT...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
147 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
IT WILL REMAIN VERY SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THIS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND REACH I-96 TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END INTO SUNDAY. MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...SO
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD LINGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEN IT APPEARS WE WILL DRY OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 11206 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
I INCREASED THE THE POP TO NEAR 50 PCT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR SW.
RAP SOUNDING ARE SHOWING 1300 TO 1500 J/KG IN THAT AREA AND GIVEN
THERE IS STILL SOME SUNSHINE I HAVE TO IMAGINE THE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE FARTHER. ALSO THE HRRR...RAP AND NAM SHOW A RATHER
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. SEEMS THE SE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS AS THAT AREA IS CLOSEST TO THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIMITED LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION BETWEEN US-31
AND US-131 BUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY PREVAILING IT WOULD
SEEM SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. ALSO BASED
ON RAP SOUNDING NEAR GRR THERE SEEMS TO BE A CAP AROUND 450 MB SO
THAT SHOULD HELP PUT A LID ON HOW BIG THE SHOWERS CAN GET NEAR AND
NORTH OF GRR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR TO EXIST INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPS WILL STAY WARM WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO MONDAY.
A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF KY AND TN THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WAVE
THAT WAS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE UPPER FLOW OVER MI WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE DIVERGENT BY THIS EVENING WHICH FAVORS THAT THIS WAVE
WILL IMPACT SW MI. I REMOVED POPS FROM THE GRIDS FOR THIS
MORNING...BUT MAINTAINED THE POPS AFTER 21Z AS THE I-94 CORRIDOR
SHOULD START TO SEE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE BY THAT
TIME.
THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH WILL THIS WAVE
BRING RAIN. BELIEVE WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE DIVERGENT THERE SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH TO STOP IT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AS THE PCPN TRIES TO MOVE NORTH OF I-96. THE WAVE WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO GET PUSHED TO THE EAST BY THE UPPER LOW THAT ARRIVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. SO BELIEVE THE PCPN MAY
REACH A MKG-MOP LINE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EAST INTO
SUNDAY. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WE SHOULD FALL IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE INTO MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL WI MOVES INTO LOWER MI. THIS WILL BRING IN
ANOTHER RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE HIGHEST DEW
POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS HAVING TRENDED TO THE MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHOWN BY THE ECMWF. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
AND MCS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AS WELL
WITH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
ADDED SOME IFR TRW ACTIVITY FOR KBTL AND KJXN THIS AFTERNOON.
RADAR SHOWS DEVELOPING SHOWERS AROUND KADG AND KJYM MOVING NW. IFR
EARLIER AT KDFI WHEN THE SHOWERS WERE WEAKER. SO THESE PASSING
CELLS HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE TO PRODUCE BRIEF IFR DOWNPOURS. NO
LIGHTNING YET WITH THESE CELLS BUT CLOUD TOPS ARE DOWN TO -30 DEG
C...SO THE RISK IS INCREASING. HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THEY GO IS A
CHALLENGE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AT MAINLY VCTS...BUT
AVIATORS SHOULD MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
I ADDED MVFR CEILINGS TO MOST TAF SITES FOR OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. UPSTREAM THERE WAS A LOT OF
MVFR CLOUDS LAST NIGHT AND FOG AS WELL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
IFR FOR LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF IT RAINS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS SUNDAY MORNING...SO THE CONDITIONS MAY
BE SLOW TO IMPROVE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
A SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...BUT REMAIN 15
KNOTS OR LESS. THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY LOW WAVES...ALTHOUGH
TWO FOOTERS WILL BE COMMON TOWARD THE POINTS REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE PCPN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM NO
HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. MOST RIVER BASINS SHOULD SEE AN AVERAGE
OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
A VERY MILD EARLY MORNING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH MANY TEMPS
STILL IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST
TO 20+KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER MN THROUGH WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NW
ONTARIO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE RAP AND THE LOCAL RAPID
UPDATE WRF-ARW RUNS SUGGEST THAT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE WEAK Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT PASSES BY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
DRY AIRMASS PER THE 00Z MPX AND GRB RAOBS...AND BEST SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN LAKE...THERE IS NOT
GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
JUST SOUTH OF DLH...PCPN CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT FROM IWD TO THE
KEWEENAW THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED
POPS THIS MORNING FOR THIS REGION. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO SAGS SOUTHWARD TODAY...THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NEXT WEAK WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. MLCAPE VALUES
RISE TO AROUND 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST...BUT THE
CAPE IS FAIRLY SKINNY WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF ONLY AROUND 6
C/KM. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND/OR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY HELP
ENHANCE LOCAL BULK SHEAR...OVERALL THE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE LOW
WITH ONLY 15-20 KT OF DEEP SHEAR. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST...BUT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE WEAKENING 850MB WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AS THE UPPER VORT
PASSES BY JUST TO THE NORTH. IN FACT...MANY OF THE HIGHER RES NWP
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE HEAVIEST PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MARQUETTE AND
BARAGA COUNTIES. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES BY...EXPECT WEAK DRY
ADVECTION AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AT 850MB ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...HELPING TO BRING ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS GENERALLY TO AN END IN THOSE AREAS. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BETTER MOISTURE REMAINING FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW TO NW WISCONSIN...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR THE WESTERN 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA FOR THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME TYPE OF LULL AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN SUN MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL IN THE KEWEENAW...WEAK UPSLOPE E OR SE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ANY RAINFALL
AND ALSO COOLER AIR OFF THE LAKE...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FROM CMX
TO COPPER HARBOR TONIGHT. WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO THERE
IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RAIN DIMINISHES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...THUS MAKING IT
MUCH MORE HUMID THAN FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...IT WILL LIKELY FEEL
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WORSE THAN FRIDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED HUMIDITY.
TEMPS WILL STILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 80S IN MOST PLACES AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO FORM WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP AREAS NEAR THE SHORELINE
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL MOVE FROM SRN
MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH TRAILING
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. ONGOING CONVECTION FROM NE MN INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW WI MAY MOVE INTO W UPPER MI IN THE MORNING. IF
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOP...AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
COULD CLIMB TO 1000-1500 J/KG SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SCT/NMRS
SHRA/TSRA WITH THE TROUGH...OUTFLOW AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TO 30 KT WILL BE
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONGER/SVR STORMS. WITH PWAT VALUES
TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PCPN COVERAGE WAS LIMITED AS THE GFS/GEM
AND HIGHER RES MODELS WERE SIGNFICANTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
AFTERNOON PCPN COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF. ANY EVENING SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN AND
THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH.
MON...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF UPPER MI...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WEAK SHRTWVS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THAT COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PCPN KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
TUE-FRI...THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
QVECTOR CONV AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY FROM TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED. ALTHOUGH THE GFS DISPLAYED CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...THE GEM/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF KEEPING STRONGER
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WOULD DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD UPPER MI AND LIMIT PCPN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS. A RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED BY THU WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE AND TRAILING WEAK SHRTWVS AROUND
THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
DISTURBANCES SHOULD ENHANCE THE SHRA/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE KEWEENAW LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL TRY
TO DELINEATE THIS IN THE TAFS ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
EVEN UNDER MOST OF THE SHOWERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WITH THE
CIG/VIS FORECAST TONIGHT AT CMX AS WEAK FRONT SAGS JUST SOUTH OF CMX
TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME
THERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ESPECIALLY ON
THE CMAN STATIONS OR LARGER SHIPS. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTHWARD
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT
TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THOUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY THEN DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS FOR STRONGER NW WINDS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.
DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...MRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1203 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
IT WILL REMAIN VERY SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THIS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND REACH I-96 TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END INTO SUNDAY. MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...SO
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD LINGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEN IT APPEARS WE WILL DRY OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 11206 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
I INCREASED THE THE POP TO NEAR 50 PCT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR SW.
RAP SOUNDING ARE SHOWING 1300 TO 1500 J/KG IN THAT AREA AND GIVEN
THERE IS STILL SOME SUNSHINE I HAVE TO IMAGINE THE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE FARTHER. ALSO THE HRRR...RAP AND NAM SHOW A RATHER
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. SEEMS THE SE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS AS THAT AREA IS CLOSEST TO THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIMITED LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION BETWEEN US-31
AND US-131 BUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY PREVAILING IT WOULD
SEEM SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG. ALSO BASED
ON RAP SOUNDING NEAR GRR THERE SEEMS TO BE A CAP AROUND 450 MB SO
THAT SHOULD HELP PUT A LID ON HOW BIG THE SHOWERS CAN GET NEAR AND
NORTH OF GRR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR TO EXIST INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPS WILL STAY WARM WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO MONDAY.
A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF KY AND TN THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WAVE
THAT WAS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE UPPER FLOW OVER MI WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE DIVERGENT BY THIS EVENING WHICH FAVORS THAT THIS WAVE
WILL IMPACT SW MI. I REMOVED POPS FROM THE GRIDS FOR THIS
MORNING...BUT MAINTAINED THE POPS AFTER 21Z AS THE I-94 CORRIDOR
SHOULD START TO SEE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE BY THAT
TIME.
THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH WILL THIS WAVE
BRING RAIN. BELIEVE WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE DIVERGENT THERE SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH TO STOP IT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AS THE PCPN TRIES TO MOVE NORTH OF I-96. THE WAVE WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO GET PUSHED TO THE EAST BY THE UPPER LOW THAT ARRIVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. SO BELIEVE THE PCPN MAY
REACH A MKG-MOP LINE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EAST INTO
SUNDAY. MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WE SHOULD FALL IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE INTO MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL WI MOVES INTO LOWER MI. THIS WILL BRING IN
ANOTHER RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE HIGHEST DEW
POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS HAVING TRENDED TO THE MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHOWN BY THE ECMWF. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
AND MCS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AS WELL
WITH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
SOME LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY IFR IN
FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AOB
10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
A SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...BUT REMAIN 15
KNOTS OR LESS. THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY LOW WAVES...ALTHOUGH
TWO FOOTERS WILL BE COMMON TOWARD THE POINTS REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE PCPN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM NO
HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. MOST RIVER BASINS SHOULD SEE AN AVERAGE
OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
OFF-AND-ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
MORNING UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST
STATES AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A WEAK LOW IN THE MIDDLE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. FAST WESTERLY FLOW COVERED THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. OUR AREA REMAINED IN THE TRANSITION ZONE
OF HIGHER HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH AND FAST FLOW TO THE NORTH. AT THE
SURFACE...A WIND SHIFT LINE WAS NOTED IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA...TIED TO A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA. AND A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS.
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THAT MOVED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING HAVE LEFT OUR AREA CAPPED TO CONVECTION SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE-BASED CAPES WERE TOPPING
1000 J/KG...BUT INHIBITION WAS STILL ROBUST. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING A FEW MORE DEGREES LATE IN THE DAY...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM POP UP THIS EVENING...PROBABLY IN WESTERN IOWA. THEN
LATER TONIGHT...WIND SHIFT LINE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA
AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. INSTABILITY WAS STRONG IN
CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR/AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT...SO AM
EXPECTING STORMS TO FIRE THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BUT COULD SKIRT OUR NORTHERN
CWA. OTHERWISE MORE GENERAL THUNDER CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND
SHIFT LINE AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. NOT
MUCH NOTED IN MID LEVEL FLOW TO KICK UP CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY
IS MAXIMIZED. THEN FRONT/WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THERE. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LIFT BACK NORTH ON
MONDAY. COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE CAPES
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG WITH 30KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE OUR SMALL CHANCES FOR STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH...AND HIGHER CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH WHERE BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR.
STORMS CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN OUR AREA...REINFORCED BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE.
INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN APPROACH 3000 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A TAD GREATER SHEAR. SO AGAIN SEVERE IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SO WILL
KEEP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SIGNALING A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES. AS RIDGE BUILDS...WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON FRIDAY
COULD SPARK STORMS...BUT DRY AFTER THAT AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM.
TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL EASILY REACH THE 90S...BUT
COULD HOLD IN THE 80S WHERE STORMS/CLOUDS LINGER. A LITTLE COOLER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...BUT A RETURN TO 90S
LOOK LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DERGAN
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
THE RAP13 IS BACKING OFF ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT FOR SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST RAIN CHANCES
HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
THE LOW LEVEL JET FORCED CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING
EXITS EAST AROUND 12Z-13Z TO BE REPLACED BY THE CONVECTION ONGOING
ACROSS ERN WY. ALL MODELS SHOW THE WY CONVECTION DECAYING BEFORE IT
REACHES THE FCST AREA...PRESUMABLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES AND
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. RADAR BASED TIMING
TOOLS SHOW THIS WEAK CONVECTION OR ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS EXITING THE
FCST AREA BY 18Z. THIS WOULD SET UP A WINDOW OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR THE AFTN WITH HOT TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SFC FRONT WHICH SHOULD DRAPE FROM KLXN NORTH TO KANW. THE RUC THEN
SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND THE HRRR THEN
SUGGESTS PARTIAL DESTABILIZATION AND ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND
1.33 INCHES AND AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES NORTH...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WOULD APPEAR OPERATIVE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ITS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH
FORCING IS AVAILABLE THIS FAR SOUTH FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE
MODELS GO QUIET TONIGHT SUGGESTING A DIURNAL FORCING MECHANISM IS
UNDERWAY. SO THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY FORCED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. THE
CONVECTION WEAKENS THIS EVENING WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AND BY WEEKS END WILL BE
CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD. THROUGH MIDWEEK...TSTM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS IN FAIRLY FAST
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
HIGH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD BY WEEKS END...THE UPPER FLOW
DIMINISHES OVER OUR AREA WITH THE TSTM CHANCES SHIFTING NORTH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND EVEN A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA...AND SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS. AS MENTIONED WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY STRONG...AND BULK SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO HELP
SUSTAIN ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUITE STRONG...WITH MOISTURE/DEW POINTS POOLING INVOF THE THE
FRONT.
TEMPERATURE WISE...UNTIL THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS NORTH OVER THE AREA
BY WEEKS END...SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED. THEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...HOT WEATHER DEVELOPS. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL BE
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE
AREA...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. A STALLED
NORTH/SOUTH SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WAVE PUSHES ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. UNCERTAIN ON DEVELOPMENT IS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH DEW PTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...THUS NO MENTION
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF. ALSO LOW LEVEL JET IS
PROJECTED TO CURVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ENHANCEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO BE
EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES.
WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KTS. TO
THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GET...WHERE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL. TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20
KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST
AIR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE DRIER
AIR FINALLY ARRIVES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR REGION REMAINS IN A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM SHOULD
DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKE-BREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...HOWEVER
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...MAKING IT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN OHIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO OUR REGION AS IT WEAKENS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...IT APPEARS THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
OUR REGION WITH THE NOSE OF AN INCREASING 700 MB FLOW. THE GFS/RGEM
HINT AT THIS...THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR A BIT LATER IN TIMING
WHICH APPEARS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION OF THE FEATURE.
EXPECT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE FROM W-E LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH THESE LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FURTHER
NORTH FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LATER TONIGHT.
THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING HAD A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.50
INCHES...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS JUST UPSTREAM IN PITTSBURGH AND
CINCINNATI ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE RESULT WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP. 700 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME STORM MOTION TO
MITIGATE THE RISK FOR FLOODING. LARGE AREAS OR TRAINING CELLS
WOULD STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING...WITH
CONTINUED MENTION IN THE HWO STILL JUSTIFIED.
ON SUNDAY...THE PERSISTENT CUT-OFF LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON EXACTLY HOW FAR IT WILL LIFT.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL LIFT
A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH IT. ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY WILL ALSO
ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS THE 500 MB FLOW FANS OUT. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL CARRY A FAIRLY LARGE AREA
OF LIKELY POPS...WITH AN AREA OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO LAKE SHADOWING
NE OF THE LAKES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER...700 MB WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...RESULTING IN SOME STORM
MOTION...WITH TRAINING THE MORE LIKELY THREAT. ITS ALSO WORTH NOTING
THAT WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE SHEARED WIND PROFILE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE AND A
MODEST FLOW LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE...HOWEVER A MODEST FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE JUST A TAD COOLER IN
MOST LOCATIONS...DUE TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGER SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW WHICH HAVE BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWESTERN STATES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH OF THE MID OHIO VALLEY
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING TO SOUTHWESTERN PA BY EARLY MONDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND GENERATE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 1.5
INCH TO 1.75 INCH...THUS ANY CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE DOWNPOURS OF
RAIN BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO KEEP CELLS
FROM TRAINING OVER THE SAME SMALL AREAS ALONG THE STORM TRACKS...
LIMITING THE FLOOD THREAT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THERE
WILL BE WEAK RIDGING WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP
DURING THE EARLY TO MID PARTS OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE LATE DAY AND
EVENING STORMS MOVING FROM THE WEST AS A SHORT WAVE AND MODEST 30
KNOT 850MB JET ARRIVE FROM THE MIDWESTERN STATES...MAXIMIZING THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL IN SPOTS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL...AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE...EVEN
TO LOW 70S FOR THE URBAN CENTERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL
TRANSITION TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...CHARACTERIZED BY A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH A LOWERING RAIN CHANCE AS THE DAY AND EVENING
PROGRESS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS. WHILE THE TROUGH MAY ENHANCE
INSTABILITY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STARVED FOR MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE ONLY LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE RESULTANT RAIN FROM THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE COASTAL SYSTEM AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 18Z...CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY QUITE SPARSE SO FAR. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT WILL MAINLY ONLY IMPACT JHW...AS DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE
AT OTHER TAF LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH
THE REGION TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS
LOW. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TAF SITES WHERE WINDS
WILL BE LESS...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JHW. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...DUE TO DIURNAL
CYCLES.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...HEAVY RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ABLE TO BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY TO 2SM OR LESS.
OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP
WIND AND WAVES RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS TO BE SOUTHWEST MOST OF THE
TIME WITH SOME LOCAL LAKE BREEZES ON LAKE ONTARIO TURNING WINDS
ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
241 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY STALLED
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MOST
LIKELY DRIVEN BY A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER CENTRAL NC...AND SHOWERS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE APPROACHING FROM THE SE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNSET. SO FAR THE HRRR HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON
SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON THAT FORECAST
FOR PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY OR
SSW AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN FROM THE LAST DAY OR SO...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ENE TOWARD THE NE US THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DAMPENING THE HIGH
OVER CENTRAL NC AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE...EXPECT A REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH TO
SHOW UP...AND WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE STRONGEST SW FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
SHOULD BE. HIGHS SUNDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...MID 80S TO AROUND 90...
ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE...COULD BE A BIT
LOWER IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...IN
THE LOW 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SATURDAY...
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
PASSES OVER THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NRN
WV AT 12Z MONDAY... FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF THE NAM/ECMWF/EC ENS
MEAN. (THE GFS HAS DEAMPLIFIED AND SPED UP IN RECENT RUNS...
ALTHOUGH IT DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN MODEL... AND THUS
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL.) THE SHORTWAVE THEN
DAMPENS AS IT TRACKS TO THE ENE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES AND JUST
OFF NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY... LEAVING BEHIND A BAGGY WEAK
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BACK ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE (25-30 KTS) IN THE NORTHERN FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY... WITH HIGHER VALUES OF
K-INDEX/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX/PW (1.8-2.0 IN.) STREAKING ACROSS
THE WRN AND NRN CWA DURING THE MORNING... ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AND ATTENDING WEAKENING DPVA ALOFT. WILL PLACE GOOD CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS WITH LOWER POPS IN THE SE
WHERE DEEP MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HANG ON. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WANES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE LIFTS OUT... BUT WITH BOTH PW
AND MOISTURE FLUX REMAINING ELEVATED WHILE MLCAPE PEAKS AT 1000-1600
J/KG... SUPPORT PERSISTS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EASING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FOLLOWING THE DRIFT OF THE WEAK TRAILING TROUGH AXIS.
WILL TAPER POPS DOWN TO A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS WE KEEP
THE SOMEWHAT MOIST COLUMN BUT LOSE THE INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF FULL-SUN DAYTIME
TEMPS... AND EXPECT HIGHS OF 84 NW TO NEAR 90 SE. LOWS 70-73.
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND VERY SUBTLE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HOLD OVER NC... AS THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS
TO DIG OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER
CENTRAL NC... ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH THE NAM
SHOWING PW VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES (WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR)
WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A PW AXIS AROUND 2.1 INCHES. THIS LEADS TO A
WETTER TUESDAY ON THE GFS THAN THE NAM... ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS ALONG
WITH THE ECMWF AND SREF MEAN SUGGEST GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER
THE WRN HALF OF NC COMPARED TO THE EAST. PROJECTED MLCAPE RISING
WITH HEATING TO 1500-2000 J/KG AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH HEATING... ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF
GOOD KINEMATICS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS TAPERING DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER SUNSET AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHS
87-90 WITH THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOWS 70-73.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: RIDGING HOLDS FIRM OVER NM HEADING
INTO LATE WEEK WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THEN OVER THE EASTERN US. THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAINLY OVER ERN TN AND SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE WRN CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NW OVER
THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP POPS AS
CHANCE OVER CENTRAL NC... HIGHER WEST THAN EAST. THEN AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH... EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE ESE INTO NC... PEAKING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL NC ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF
AND EC ENS MEAN... AND SHIFTING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND COAST ON
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE AGREEMENT SUCH THAT CONFIDENCE IS JUST HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH POPS RANGING FROM 40% SE TO 60% NW ON THURSDAY...
LOWERING A BIT TO CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN 50-60% ON FRIDAY...
HIGHER EAST THAN WEST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO ERN NC BY
SATURDAY BUT WITH GROWING UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST... WILL RETAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY IN THE
EAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO STALL OUT OVER THE REGION.
WILL STAY WITH PERSISTENCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90... SLIPPING ABOUT A CATEGORY BY LATE WEEK AS THICKNESSES TREND
DOWN BELOW NORMAL. NIGHTLY LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SATURDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...WITH BEST
CHANCES EARLY AT KRDU AND KFAY AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AT KINT AND
KGSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE SAME OVERALL PATTERN
EXPECTED...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING ARE LIKELY...
WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY IFR STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z SUNDAY. -KC
LOOKING AHEAD:
AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL LARGELY BE
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...CONSISTING OF IFR/LIFR FOG
OR STRATUS BETWEEN 07-14Z EACH MORNING AND A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING (16-00Z) CONVECTION. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KC/VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
509 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DID A QUICK LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE JUST TO EXPAND THE FORECAST
"LIKELY" AREA FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS.
NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MAKE
IT OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE SOME SOME SUPPORT AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS
ENE. THE HISTORY IS FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER
DARK BUT WEAK/MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH A MARGINAL LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. I SUSPECT WE
WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
MID AFTERNOON ISSUANCE...
RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE IN WESTERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SPREADS THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DO NOT THINK
COVERAGE WILL EVER GET ANY MORE THAN SCATTERED SO WILL GO WITH NO
HIGHER THAN 50 POPS MOST AREAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
CLIMBED TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
PROLIFIC PRECIP MAKERS. FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT EXPECTED LOWS ARE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT A WHOLE TO WRITE ABOUT TODAY. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED.
WAS UNABLE TO FIND A PERIOD TO GO DRY. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
POPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE NICE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS
SHOWING PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND WITH
THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THINK LIKELY POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL GO NO
HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT EXPECTED LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR A COUPLE OF PERIODS.
WILL MENTION THUNDER ALL PERIODS. IT APPEAR THAT TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
WARM DURING THE PERIOD UNDER THE PERSISTENT S TO SW FLOW REGIME.
HAVE GONE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE MOST PERIODS FOR LOWS AND SIMILAR
TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHRA THU MORNING IN THE
EAST...OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THINGS OUT BY
THU. THE NEXT SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN LAKES
LATE THU THRU SAT AND EVEN SHOWS SOME INDICATIONS THAT IT MAY TRY
AND CUT OFF JUST EAST OF THE AREA. CONCERNED THAT UPPER TROFFING MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE SO PLAN TO KEEP
POPS MOSTLY UNDER 15%.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR FRI AND SAT BUT MORE NOTICEABLE
WILL BE THE REDUCED DEWPOINTS (HUMIDITY).
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. SHRA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN SETTLE DOWN AFTER
SUNSET TO JUST SCT SHRA. THE BETTER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA BUT CONVECTION WILL BE SCT SO IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE ANY GIVEN CELL BE BE AT ANY GIVEN TIME. WILL
USE TEMPO GROUPS WHERE ACTIVITY LOOKS IMMINENT OVER NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS.
PATCHES OF LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPS BUT HIGHER CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG FROM
GETTING BELOW 2SM FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WITH SUNRISE...SHOULD SEE
CIGS FROM 500 FT TO 800 FT DEVELOP AGAIN FOR MOST TAF SITES. THE
LOWER CIGS WILL RISE TO HIGH END MVFR OR VFR CIGS BY 18Z SUN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. NEW CONVECTION WILL ALSO START TO OCCUR BY 18Z.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS EARLY
MORNING FOG THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SW THRU SUN. A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES WED AND THU AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SW FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS WED THEN VEER TO WEST FOR THU. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP FOR THU.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
321 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE IN WESTERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR SPREADS THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DO NOT THINK
COVERAGE WILL EVER GET ANY MORE THAN SCATTERED SO WILL GO WITH NO
HIGHER THAN 50 POPS MOST AREAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO
AROUND 2 INCHES SO ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE PROLIFIC
PRECIP MAKERS. FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT EXPECTED LOWS ARE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT A WHOLE TO WRITE ABOUT TODAY. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED.
WAS UNABLE TO FIND A PERIOD TO GO DRY. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
POPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE NICE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. MODELS
SHOWING PRETTY GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND WITH
THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THINK LIKELY POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL GO NO
HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT EXPECTED LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR A COUPLE OF PERIODS.
WILL MENTION THUNDER ALL PERIODS. IT APPEAR THAT TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
WARM DURING THE PERIOD UNDER THE PERSISTENT S TO SW FLOW REGIME.
HAVE GONE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE MOST PERIODS FOR LOWS AND SIMILAR
TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHRA THU MORNING IN THE
EAST...OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THINGS OUT BY
THU. THE NEXT SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN LAKES
LATE THU THRU SAT AND EVEN SHOWS SOME INDICATIONS THAT IT MAY TRY
AND CUT OFF JUST EAST OF THE AREA. CONCERNED THAT UPPER TROFFING MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE SO PLAN TO KEEP
POPS MOSTLY UNDER 15%.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR FRI AND SAT BUT MORE NOTICEABLE
WILL BE THE REDUCED DEWPOINTS (HUMIDITY).
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. SHRA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN SETTLE DOWN AFTER
SUNSET TO JUST SCT SHRA. THE BETTER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA BUT CONVECTION WILL BE SCT SO IT WILL BE
HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE ANY GIVEN CELL BE BE AT ANY GIVEN TIME. WILL
USE TEMPO GROUPS WHERE ACTIVITY LOOKS IMMINENT OVER NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS.
PATCHES OF LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPS BUT HIGHER CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG FROM
GETTING BELOW 2SM FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WITH SUNRISE...SHOULD SEE
CIGS FROM 500 FT TO 800 FT DEVELOP AGAIN FOR MOST TAF SITES. THE
LOWER CIGS WILL RISE TO HIGH END MVFR OR VFR CIGS BY 18Z SUN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. NEW CONVECTION WILL ALSO START TO OCCUR BY 18Z.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS EARLY
MORNING FOG THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SW THRU SUN. A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKES WED AND THU AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SW FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS WED THEN VEER TO WEST FOR THU. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP FOR THU.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE DAYS
AND LIGTHER SOUTH WIND AT NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATING AGAIN TO EXTEND THE MENTION OF AT LEAST SPRINKLES INTO
THE AFTERNOON... AND TO LOWER FORECAST TEMPERATURES A TOUCH IN THE
NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE LINGERING. THE RADAR ECHOES PERSIST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH IT IS MOSTLY VIRGA. NO MESONETS
HAVE MEASURED ANY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS... AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING DETECTED
FOR OVER 3 HOURS. AFTER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS... CONFIDENCE IS
NOT TOO HIGH ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THESE ECHOES... ALTHOUGH ANY
IMPACT WILL BE MINOR. HRRR CONTINUES WIDESPREAD ECHOES AND LOCAL
WRF IS NOW ALSO BEGINNING TO KEEP FORECAST RADAR ECHOES. STILL
EXPECT MUCH OF IT TO BE VIRGA EVEN IF IT DOES PERSIST... SO WILL
LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT KEEP THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013/
AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TSRA THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN WESTERN
OK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BRISK SOUTH WINDS AGAIN
EXPECTED TODAY...ESP IN WESTERN SECTIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN NW OK. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE AGAIN DIMINISHING LATER TODAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE AREA INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
S/W TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE THEN DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AROUND MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE SWD
INTO OR NEAR NRN PARTS OF THE FA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS
THERE. DRY AND HOT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 95 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 70 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 69 97 69 99 / 10 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 72 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 70 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATING AGAIN TO EXTEND THE MENTION OF AT LEAST SPRINKLES INTO
THE AFTERNOON... AND TO LOWER FORECAST TEMPERATURES A TOUCH IN THE
NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE LINGERING. THE RADAR ECHOES PERSIST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH IT IS MOSTLY VIRGA. NO MESONETS
HAVE MEASURED ANY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS... AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING DETECTED
FOR OVER 3 HOURS. AFTER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS... CONFIDENCE IS
NOT TOO HIGH ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THESE ECHOES... ALTHOUGH ANY
IMPACT WILL BE MINOR. HRRR CONTINUES WIDESPREAD ECHOES AND LOCAL
WRF IS NOW ALSO BEGINNING TO KEEP FORECAST RADAR ECHOES. STILL
EXPECT MUCH OF IT TO BE VIRGA EVEN IF IT DOES PERSIST... SO WILL
LOWER POPS TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT KEEP THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013/
AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TSRA THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN WESTERN
OK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BRISK SOUTH WINDS AGAIN
EXPECTED TODAY...ESP IN WESTERN SECTIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013/
DISCUSSION...A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN NW OK. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE AGAIN DIMINISHING LATER TODAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE AREA INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING
TREND WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
S/W TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE THEN DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AROUND MIDWEEK. ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE SWD
INTO OR NEAR NRN PARTS OF THE FA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS
THERE. DRY AND HOT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 70 95 71 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 98 70 99 71 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 100 71 99 73 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 95 69 97 69 / 20 10 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 94 72 96 74 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 96 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
229 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly clear skies and light winds are expected through Monday.
There will be a chance for thunderstorms over the North Cascades
this evening and once again on Sunday. Tuesday should be the
warmest day of the week with high temperatures in the upper 80s to
mid 90s. Wednesday will be locally breezy with the arrival of a
cold front. The front will knock temperatures back close to normal
for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Isolated thunderstorms have been retained in the forecast
for this evening over the north Washington Cascades and for the
high terrain near Bonners Ferry...Clark Fork...and Priest Lake.
Showers have been slow to develop this afternoon. As of 2 PM, a
couple of weak cells were evident over far north Idaho, but
nothing resembling deep convection. The RUC surface based CAPE
analysis depicts more instability over the Cascade crest from
Snoqualmie Pass north into southern B.C. The NAM, GFS, SREF and
HRRR all produce at least a little convective precipitation over
the Cascades between 3 PM and 8 PM, so a 20 percent chance of
terrain based thunderstorms has been retained through early this
evening. For the remainder of north Idaho and east Washington,
mainly light winds and mostly clear skies will be the rule for
tonight. Great weather for the 4th of July weekend.
Sunday: Our main area of interest for Sunday will once again be
the north Washington Cascades. A more dynamic upper low (currently
off the coast of central B.C.) will dig over northwest Washington
on Sunday afternoon. Look for thunderstorms to initiate by early
to mid afternoon on Sunday from Stevens Pass and points north.
Instability and shear parameters resemble what we saw yesterday
over the Okanogan Highlands, so locally heavy rain, small hail,
and gusty winds will be possible. The mention of thunderstorms has
been added to the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The East Slopes of
the Cascades is a potentially high impact area. The 25-Mile
Wildfire on the north shore of Lake Chelan is susceptible to
erratic thunderstorm outflow. The 2012 burn scars around Wenatchee
and Chelan are also prone to mud slides and flash flooding. At
this time, the model consensus is for the most concentrated
thunderstorm activity to be north of Lake Chelan. The thunderstorm
threat will certainly be worth monitoring Sunday and Sunday
evening. East of the Cascades, the weather looks much more benign.
Mainly sunny skies and light winds are expected once again on
Sunday. /GKoch
Sunday night, Monday and Monday night: There will be a chance of
showers and thunderstorms across the northern mountains as an
upper level trough axis swings across the Inland NW. After the
diurnally driven convection wanes Sunday evening, upper level
dynamics will take over and keep the threat of showers with
embedded thunderstorms going from the far northern Cascades,
across the Okanogan Highlands and into the Northeast Mountains and
far north Idaho late Sunday night and into Monday morning. There
is also a smaller possibility of convection across the Blue
mountains and into the central ID panhandle where a wedge of mid
level instability develops. Meanwhile winds will be gusty in the
Cascade valleys Sunday night and spilling into the Columbia Basin.
The upper level disturbance will exit by Monday afternoon although
lingering low level instability will keep the mention of afternoon
and evening convection across northeast Washington and north
Idaho. Drier westerly flow will move into the region Monday night
as high pressure moves into the region. Temperatures will be
running slightly above normal. /rfox.
Tuesday through Thursday: A ridge of high pressure shifts east
and opens the door for the passage of two or three systems. The
main result looks to be, after peak heating on Tuesday, a slight
cool-down and locally breezy afternoon and/or evening conditions.
All models show lower afternoon relative humidity, especially
Wednesday. The critical winds may not sync with the lowest
humidity. Yet this will be monitored for possible impacts for fire
weather concerns. The passing systems suggest possible shower
chances. A weak impulse slips by the northern Cascades and
Canadian border Tuesday as the ridge axis is shifting east. While
models are not in total agreement on its timing, more than half
indicate some afternoon CAPE in the above locations. So I kept a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms going here.
A second, deeper shortwave passes Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday morning and a third wave comes up from the southwest
Thursday afternoon. First during the day Wednesday the deeper wave
drops down the BC coast toward WA, while a jet streak comes up
through northern CA and OR. The BC shortwave pivots inland
sometime between late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. The
deepest lift appears to remain north of the Canadian border. Yet a
cold front crossing eastern Washington into northern Idaho late
Wednesday into Thursday morning and jet streak coming up from
southwest will provide some lift. The third shortwave rides up
along the stalled front. Slower models bring this wave by
southeast Washington and northern Idaho; other keep it across
Oregon and central and southern Idaho.
The question is: will there be enough instability and/or moisture
when these features come through to generate any precipitation?
The continued disagreements in timing lessen forecaster
confidence. I kept shower and thunderstorms chance going across
the northern mountains, as well as near the Blues through central
Panhandle. But the overall best instability remains around but not
over eastern WA and northern ID, so the precipitation chances
remain low. /J. Cote`
Thursday Night through Saturday: Pattern for this period looks
rather active compared to what we have seen in the recent past.
Models are in decent agreement given this being quite a ways out.
Late Friday into Saturday will see a system pushing in from the NW
bringing some moisture with it. By the end of this time frame we
will have the upper level low continue to push to the east and
out of our area diminishing the threat for showers.
Examining the threat for showers we will see the system track
along the USA/BC border and increase the chances for showers in
these areas but overall the best chances look to be in NE WA and
the N Idaho Panhandle as that is where the models put the majority
of the QPF. Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
present throughout the day on Saturday. Currently the mention of
showers is for the higher elevations as topography will likely play
a key role initiating the showers. The Euro brought the system to
the south much further than the previous run following what the
GFS had been showing. This brings higher confidence of the
event...the question will be whether t-storms are present or if it
is simply showers. Total totals would be supportive along with
shear and the upper level cold pool with the system...but very
limited CAPE and positive LIs would hinder storm development.
This will be something we watch in the upcoming days to see how
models bring this system in.
The other thing to keep an eye on will be the winds as they will
pick up with the passing of the system due to the tightened gradient.
Currently only breezy conditions are in the forecast...but if the
track of the system would change this could lead to increased
winds. As we progress closer to the event model agreement will
hopefully increase allowing for more confidence in this weekend
system. /Fliehman
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Mainly clear skies and light winds are anticipated for
the TAF sites of eastern Washington and north Idaho through 18z
Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be encountered in
the 20z-03z time frame over the mountain peaks near Bonners Ferry
and over the high terrain north and west of the Methow Valley in
the north Washington Cascades. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 85 58 84 58 88 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 53 84 55 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 10 10 0
Pullman 46 83 51 83 49 87 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
Lewiston 57 92 61 91 60 95 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
Colville 50 88 53 87 53 91 / 10 10 20 20 10 10
Sandpoint 47 83 51 81 50 85 / 10 0 10 30 20 10
Kellogg 52 83 54 82 54 85 / 10 0 0 20 10 0
Moses Lake 56 91 59 91 58 94 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 61 89 61 89 63 92 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
Omak 56 89 56 90 58 93 / 0 10 20 10 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$