Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/05/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
850 PM MST THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND THEN EXPAND
EAST TO WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT AND THE EBB AND FLOW OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY QUIET FOURTH OF JULY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT VIEWING CONDITIONS TO WATCH
LOCAL FIRE WORKS DISPLAYS FOR MOST PLACES. ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MY
FORECAST AREA...WHICH MEANS GREENLEE COUNTY AS WELL AS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY IS
MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 15 MPH. EARLIER THIS EVENING THE WIND GUSTED
TO NEARLY 50 MPH AT THE SAFFORD AIRPORT...WHEN THE FIRST GUST OF 48
MPH OCCURRED AT 626 PM MST. ANOTHER PEAK GUST OF 49 MPH OCCURRED AT
656 PM MST AS STORMS MOVED SOUTH OFF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE GILA RIVER VALLEY.
SOME OF THE RECENT MODEL DATA SUCH AS THE HRRR SEEM TO BE OVERDOING
THE PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE U OF A WRF NAM AND GFS SEEM TO
KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP EAST OF TUCSON OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN THEN
MOSTLY ISOLATED IN NATURE. THAT SAID...THINK THE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT ARE A BIT TOO HIGH...SO WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 70S AT SAFFORD WHERE THE SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING COOLED IT
OFF...TO THE UPPER 80S TO 100 DEGS ELSEWHERE. THE TUCSON INTL
AIRPORT REPORTED 100 DEGS AFTER REACHING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 106
DEGS. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS
TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD TSRA MAINLY E OF A KSAD-KFHU LINE THIS EVENING.
TSRA WILL BE MOVG S AROUND 12 KTS WITH OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS
AND LCL IFR VSBYS IN BLDU. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE OVERALL MONSOON PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
MIGRATES EASTWARD. EVENTUALLY THE SE ARIZONA WEATHER PATTERN
CURRENTLY AFFECTED BY NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL
INSTEAD BE INFLUENCED BY SYSTEMS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST. IN ANY
EVENT THE CYCLE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...THE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH STREAK HAS REACHED 34 DAYS IN
TUCSON WHICH IS 4TH LONGEST STREAK ON RECORD. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE STREAK MAY END OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKE SATURDAY...WHERE
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 99. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR
WESTERN ARIZONA WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT
ENDING UP CENTERED OVER PHOENIX FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT THAT WILL BE OVERCOME BY THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN PROVIDING THE EXTRA NEEDED LIFT. SO OVERALL WOULD CONTINUE
TO EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE SUPPRESSED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH...IE WESTERN AREAS...WHILE WE STILL HAVE A THREAT ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASIC IDEA IS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITES AND THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AGAIN
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE HIGH CENTERING ITSELF MORE OVER ARIZONA THE STEERING FLOW
UNDER THE HIGH WILL BE WEAK SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR HEAVIER RAINS
TO GO ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS AS THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE SLOWER MOVERS. SOMEWHAT HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND THAT PLACES OUR 100+ STREAK IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 100. WILL ALL DEPEND
ON AMOUNT AND TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE A DAY TO DAY
DEAL. AT THIS TIME I FEEL WE WILL MAINTAIN THE RUN...BUT JUST
BARELY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECREASE A BIT SUNDAY ONWARD WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES SO IF WE MAKE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE STREAK INTACT WE SHOULD BE GOOD FOR ADDING A FEW MORE DAYS
TO THE TALLY.
FOR THE LONGER TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ELONGATES EAST/WEST AND
SLIPS NORTH SLIGHTLY. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO BE UNDER
A MOISTENING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WOULD RAMP UP CONVECTION
SOME. ALSO AN INVERTED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE BIG
BEND AREA TOWARDS CHIHUAHUA AND SONORA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF REMAINS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING THIS PASSING FEATURE AS WELL. AS A RESULT BUMPED UP POPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND TWEAKED THE SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
305 AM MST WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK IN SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. THE MAIN THREATS FROM TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BASIN HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS
THREAT OF WINDS AND DUST IN NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A
WETTER SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH COULD BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ALTHOUGH WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN.
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
CROSSED EASTERN AZ TUESDAY NOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. COUPLE OF UPSTREAM RIPPLE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW CURRENTLY
NEAR AZ/NM BORDER AND WC AZ WITH ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING
ACROSS THE RIM COUNTRY AND ALSO WEST OF THE PHOENIX METRO
RESPECTIVELY. THE 07Z HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. RESULTANT
FORECAST INCLUDES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS MORNING IN MOST
AREAS WITH MAIN FOCUS EAST OF TUCSON.
FARTHER UPSTREAM IN NORTHERLY FLOW...MORE DISTURBANCES ARE PRESENT
IN UTAH AND SHOULD PROVIDE AN ADDED BOOST TO STORMS THAT FORM EAST
OF TUCSON LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THESE WERE CAPTURED BY THE
GFS MODEL FIELDS. WHILE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN UTAH DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS TUESDAY...STORMS IN SE AZ COULD STILL PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. THINK BEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN A TAD
FARTHER EAST THAN ON TUESDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENCIRCLING THE NORTHERN
PERIMETER OF THE GREAT BASIN HIGH WHERE A CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS
ONGOING OVER IDAHO. THIS SYSTEM IS DEPICTED AS MOVING ACROSS SE AZ
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY MAKING FOR AN ACTIVE INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER AS IT IS COMPLICATED BY THE
CENTER OF THE BASIN HIGH SIMULTANEOUSLY WAFTING TOWARD AZ...WHICH
COULD ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT HAVE MAINTAINED
20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
FRI AND SAT THE MOVEMENT OF HIGH MAY PLACE SE AZ IN DEEPER MOISTURE
CREEPING IN FROM SE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLOWER MOVING HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH HIGHS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SATURDAY IS STILL
FORECAST AS THE LEAST HOT DAY...WHEN THE STREAK OF 100+ DEGREE DAYS
IN TUCSON COULD COME TO AN END...BUT FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HIGH STANDS RIGHT AT 100...KD
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 04/12Z...
AS ONE BATCH OF CLOUDS EXITS SE AZ TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER BATCH OF
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON THIS MORNING...THEN ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF KTUS AFTER 03/20Z. THESE STORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 04/05Z BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL EXHIBIT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WESTERN LOCATIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EASTERN AREAS THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY
FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULD SPREAD TO NEARBY VALLEY AREAS.
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE WET. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MODERATION OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY GOOD OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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DROZD/LADER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 PM MST TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEVADA IS PROJECTED
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND MOVE SOUTH INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE RUC CONTINUES SO ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT FROM ABOUT WINSLOW EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AND DOWN INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. JUST
UPDATED FORECAST TO CONTINUE PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THESE
AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /345 PM MST/...A MOIST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN AZ STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN A MAJOR
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER WERE DRY
ADIABATIC...RESULTING IN MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES. STORMS IN THE
FLAGSTAFF AREA HAVE PRODUCED 1 INCH HAIL...WITH A REPORT OF 1.5 INCH
HAIL AT KACHINA VILLAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO BEEN IMPRESSIVE
IN LOCALIZED AREAS...UP TO 1.5 INCHES SO FAR AT FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD...REACHING YAVAPAI AND NRN GILA COUNTY.
THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE
STORM ACTIVITY...THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT OVER AND THEN EVENTUALLY EAST OF ARIZONA. THIS
COULD PLACE OUR REGION IN A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MONSOON
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. POPS TREND UP SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL BY A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLD-SCT TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST
OF A KPRC-KPGA LINE. GUSTS TO 45KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.
ISOLD-SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM PRIMARILY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...BRINGING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS BUT
ALSO A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC.........MAS/JJ
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...DJO
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
FOR THE EAST COAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOW
FOR THE EAST COAST THROUGH 00Z...SO DROPPED POPS BACK TO 20
PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE FLOW IS DEEPER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND THIS WILL NOT ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
TRAIN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD LIKE THEY HAVE THE PAST
FEW DAYS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY TRAIN ACROSS
COLLIER COUNTY SO FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPOTTED BY THE TOWER AT NAPLES
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES...AND THESE WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST THIS
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FOURTH OF JULY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIVE IN DRIER MID LEVEL AIR BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP ONE HALF INCH TO
AROUND 1.6 INCHES. HOWEVER...SHALLOW STREAMER SHOWERS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST OVER THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS OR CUBA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
EASTERN SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THIS WILL ALSO HAMPER SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY AFTER THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST.
THERE WILL STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO SURGE BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EAST. A
BRIEF WIND AND MOISTURE SURGE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM EAST
TO WEST ON SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO ROTATE SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD AROUND THE MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND BE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL MERGE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AS THEY BOTH TRAVEL
WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UPPER LOW...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS NOT GIVING IT ENOUGH TIME TO CLOSE
OFF. HOWEVER...THESE FEATURES NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THEY CAN
SOMETIMES DEVELOP. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE WESTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED WITH THE GFS...SO RAINFALL
CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO GET SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND THE NAPLES AREA. WINDS ARE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WHICH IS AT THE SAME
TIME BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTLINE. THE FORECAST REASONING IS FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESSES,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. FOR PBI, FXE, AND FLL KEPT
VCTS UNTIL 20Z. VCSH ARE INCLUDED AFTER 13Z FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS AND 15Z FOR NAPLES. FOR NAPLES VCTS IS INCLUDED UNTIL
01Z.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY BECOME LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 87 78 88 / 30 30 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 88 80 89 / 30 30 30 50
MIAMI 78 88 79 89 / 40 30 30 60
NAPLES 74 89 74 91 / 40 50 40 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
649 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. SURFACE TROUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER
JET ARE CAUSING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON
THIS. AS HEATING OF THE DAY GOES AWAY AND THE BEST LIFT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AND BE DONE BY 04Z. THERE
IS A LOT OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE CONVECTION/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SO INCREASED THE SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL AND SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIM
CHANCE THAT THEY MIGHT REACH FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SEE RH VALUES
DROP TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE
AREAS WILL SEE THE LEAST WIND AT AROUND 15KTS...RESULTING IN
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
GIVEN DRY FUELS IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH FORECAST PERIOD.
H5 RIDGE STILL EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY WITH WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED MEAN FLOW
SLIGHTLY NORTH...WHICH COULD ALLOW RIDGE TO HOLD MORE INFLUENCE
OVER OUR CWA...AND DECREASE CHANCES. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT MAXES PASSING
OVER CWA AND PRODUCING QPF EVERY PERIOD. MIXING HEIGHTS AND DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER IN PLACE WOULD SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A FAIRLY
STRONG DRYLINE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER...HOWEVER MODEL 2M TD VALUES
ARE STILL MUCH HIGHER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT WITH SUPPORT FROM LLJ AND H85-H5 ISENTROPIC FORCING...SO
I CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ANY PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND STALL ACROSS SW NEBRASKA MON/TUE AND COULD
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING INITIATION EACH PERIOD I
DIDNT WANT TO INCREASE POPS OUTSIDE OF CHANCE CATEGORY.
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SAT/SUN WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY
APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY WITH TEMPS MON
DUE TO FRONTAL POSITION DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WE SHOULD STILL SEE
TEMPS APPROACH THE MID 90S. AT THIS POINT WE PROBABLY WONT SEE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90F UNTIL WED/THU WHEN GUIDANCE
SHOWS STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HEIGHTS
FALLING OVER OUR CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CURRENTLY WEST AND NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES. THESE MAY LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE EITHER SITE
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS SO LEFT DRY. EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW AS MIXING OCCUR/GRADIENT INCREASES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
331 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION. AS OF
19Z...TWO WEAK WAVES WERE OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE SATELLITE
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
TOWERING CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OWNING TO THE WEAK
INHIBITION WITH SCT THUNDER SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS WHERE
COVERAGE IS SCATTERED. ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS ELSEWHERE
WARRANTED A SLIGHT CHC THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY AS THE LATEST RUC AND NAM ANALYSIS SHOW ML CAPE FROM
500-1000 J/KG WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 20 KTS. COULD NOT RULE
OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND PERHAPS GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO 750 MB. WITH THE STORMS BEING
HEAT DRIVEN SHOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THIS EVENING AS TEMPS
FALL TO THE LOW 60S.
STOUT EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY AS IT
CENTERS NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS
SETUP...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS CLOSEST TO THE
RELATIVE STRONGER FORCING. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
WITH THE ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING OVER THE PLAINS REGION.
INCREASED WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH SUSTAINED MORE ON THE SIDE
WITH THE NAM AND UKMET. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES
EVIDENT IN THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF ROLLING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THE EARLY EVENING OF THE 4TH CANT
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME MIXED OUT
WITH VERY LITTLE CIN...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS INTO THE
EVENING THINK ISOLATED STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY DUSK. COULD
ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE EVENING OF THE 4TH
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLOW CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER
TROF FINALLY STARTS TO TAKE A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE ISOLATED THUNDER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT CROSSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH MONDAY THE
FORECAST AREA RESIDES ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH WITH
PRECIP CHANCES RIDING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TRANSITIONING UPPER FLOW MORE NORTHWESTERLY MAY BE ENOUGH TO LAY A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. AFTER TEMPERATURES
RISE BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY WEEK...COULD SEE
ANOTHER SLIGHT COOLDOWN IF THIS FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE TSRA
IS POSSIBLE AFT 20Z AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK THE WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE LEAVES CONFIDENCE LOW AND WILL LEAVE IN VCNTY THUNDER
THRU 01Z. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OUTSIDE TSRA AND WILL
MONITOR/AMEND IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO
GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AFT 01Z TONIGHT. SPEEDS ATTM ARE
BLO 10 KTS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...CRAVEN
AVIATION...BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
646 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NEAR I-64 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR KMVN...AND IT MAY BE
FORCING THIS SHALLOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT. ALREADY ADDED 20-30 POPS
OVER THIS REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW THE CURRENT ACTIVITY PRETTY WELL...AND
THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR THIS ZONE OF
SHOWERS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE WABASH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KEPT POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT IN A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BAND THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING SHOULD BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TAP SOME DEEP MOISTURE AND
DRAG IT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA IN
THE FORM SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING JUST OFF THE
SURFACE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
BE BACKED TO EASTERLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL...THE SOUNDINGS LOOK RATHER
TROPICAL...EXCEPT THE MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. LOOK FOR
ALOT OF SHOWERS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE PENNYRILE BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PENNYRILE AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH THE DAY. NOT SURE
JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL BE...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF/WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HOW FAR WEST THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A RATHER WET...DREARY DAY OVER THE PENNYRILE AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
THE FAR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND BY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WESTWARD ALL THE WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. AS THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
GENERAL DRYING TREND/LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY FRIDAY...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER TO NEARLY DUE SOUTH AND
THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT/DISCERNIBLE DISTURBANCE TO FOCUS
CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL EVENT FRIDAY. WILL
POST 50 POPS IN THE FAR EAST AND TAPER TO SLIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WOULD EXPECT THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FRIDAY TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE IMPACT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...WITH WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA SEEING THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
POPS/WEATHER. GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERS...THE IMPRESSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIXED ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH POP/WEATHER CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRECLUDES ANY ONE LOCATION SEEING MUCH MORE
THAN FIFTY PERCENT COVERAGE. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN
OVER THE AREA...THERMAL DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BECOME MINIMIZED AS EQUILIBRIUM IS ESTABLISHED. THE COMBINATION OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW /INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR/ INTO THE
AREA...INSOLATION AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN SHEAR WILL LEAD TO
GREATER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.
BY NEXT MONDAY...THE BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERS COMBINED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH FASTER ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WESTERLIES AND MINOR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW...TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FIELDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH TIME DUE TO WEAK FLOW
AND SUBSIDENCE.
JUST BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...GOING TOWARD JULY
11-12...THERE COULD BE A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT...AS THE WESTERLIES DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
LIFR CEILINGS JUST BARELY REACHED KOWB AT 11Z...AND MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILED AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT THE LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE
EAST AND WEST THIS MORNING. KCGI SHOULD SCATTERED OUT BY 14Z AND
THE OTHER SITES BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE DAY AT KCGI AND KPAH...BUT A MODEST SOUTHWEST BREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KEVV AND KOWB.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...SO CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TONIGHT. A
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD TOWARD KOWB LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS. NOT SURE IF CEILINGS ARE VERY LIKELY
BEFORE 12Z...BUT IF CEILINGS DEVELOP THEY MAY BE IN THE VICINITY
OF 3KFT. FOR NOW JUST KEPT A SCATTERED DECK IN THE FORECAST. INDICATED
PREVAILING MVFR FOG AT KPAH AND KCGI LATE IN THE PERIOD...DUE TO
THE MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
338 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NEAR I-64 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR KMVN...AND IT MAY BE
FORCING THIS SHALLOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT. ALREADY ADDED 20-30 POPS
OVER THIS REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW THE CURRENT ACTIVITY PRETTY WELL...AND
THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR THIS ZONE OF
SHOWERS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE WABASH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KEPT POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT IN A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BAND THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING SHOULD BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TAP SOME DEEP MOISTURE AND
DRAG IT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA IN
THE FORM SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING JUST OFF THE
SURFACE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
BE BACKED TO EASTERLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL...THE SOUNDINGS LOOK RATHER
TROPICAL...EXCEPT THE MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. LOOK FOR
ALOT OF SHOWERS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE PENNYRILE BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PENNYRILE AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH THE DAY. NOT SURE
JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL BE...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF/WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HOW FAR WEST THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A RATHER WET...DREARY DAY OVER THE PENNYRILE AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
THE FAR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND BY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WESTWARD ALL THE WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. AS THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
GENERAL DRYING TREND/LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY FRIDAY...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER TO NEARLY DUE SOUTH AND
THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT/DISCERNIBLE DISTURBANCE TO FOCUS
CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL EVENT FRIDAY. WILL
POST 50 POPS IN THE FAR EAST AND TAPER TO SLIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WOULD EXPECT THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FRIDAY TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE IMPACT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...WITH WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA SEEING THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
POPS/WEATHER. GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERS...THE IMPRESSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIXED ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH POP/WEATHER CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRECLUDES ANY ONE LOCATION SEEING MUCH MORE
THAN FIFTY PERCENT COVERAGE. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN
OVER THE AREA...THERMAL DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BECOME MINIMIZED AS EQUILIBRIUM IS ESTABLISHED. THE COMBINATION OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW /INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR/ INTO THE
AREA...INSOLATION AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN SHEAR WILL LEAD TO
GREATER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.
BY NEXT MONDAY...THE BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERS COMBINED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH FASTER ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WESTERLIES AND MINOR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW...TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FIELDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH TIME DUE TO WEAK FLOW
AND SUBSIDENCE.
JUST BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...GOING TOWARD JULY
11-12...THERE COULD BE A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT...AS THE WESTERLIES DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
IT LOOKS LIKE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL WIN OUT OVER FOG THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER KEVV IN THE
NEXT HOUR AND WILL LIKELY REACH KOWB BY AROUND 08Z. GUIDANCE
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL
14Z-16Z. KCGI IS CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW AND WILL LIKELY BE THE
LAST TO LOSE THE LOW CLOUDS.
LOOKING FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO MIX OUT AND LEAVE BEHIND A SCATTERED
3-4KFT DECK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
FLIRT WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT DO NOT FEEL MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL SUFFICIENTLY TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
A MODEST SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MIX DOWN AT KOWB AND KEVV THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT GUIDANCE AT KPAH AND KCGI IS WAFFLING FROM
WEST SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL SITES THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
152 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND HAVE SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TO
INCREASE POPS UP THE I-75 CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND TO
REINTRODUCE THUNDER AS NLDN PLOTS HAVE SHOWN A FEW STRIKES JUST
SOUTH OF THE KY/TN BORDER RECENTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO
OUR SOUTH APPEAR POISED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND REGION OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING NORTH INTO TENNESSEE SO
WOULD EXPECT THIS TO FORCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY. JUST SENT ALONG A QUICK UPDATE TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. STILL HELD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER BACK IN THOUGH DESPITE THE FEW STRIKES OVER THE
PLATEAU TO OUR SOUTH. HOPEFULLY...THESE WONT SNEAK OVER THE
LINE...BUT WILL MONITOR. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE...BUT HAVE NOT DISAPPEARED. POP FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 20 PERCENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 859 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATED EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REVISE EVENING POP GRIDS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL LOOK FOR MOST PRECIP TO DIE OUT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND THE 18Z NAM BOTH SHOWED SOME SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT AROUND DAWN. HAVE PLACED THE 00Z-12Z POP IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CAPPING IS IN PLACE
ACCORDING TO LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME RISING ABOVE THIS WARM LAYER
/AROUND 12K FEET/ AND AS A RESULT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SAW SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN
SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER THE PREVIOUS HOURS...YET LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...JUST WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ONE
SHOWER HAS BEEN ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE WARM LAYER AND CONTINUE TO
GROW...PRODUCING SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NWS OFFICE. THE
QUESTION THEN IS...AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...HOW MUCH WILL THIS WARM LAYER BE ERODED AND HOW MANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH AND
MODIFYING THE SOUNDING. IF THIS IS ABLE TO OCCUR...SOME EVENING TSRA
COULD TAP INTO THE BEST INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NOT ONLY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT HIGH WINDS
AND HAIL AS WELL.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST WEEK...MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WILL
LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
BECOME AS WIDESPREAD OR THICK AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.
NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AT A MUCH BETTER SET UP FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LESS OF A MID LEVEL WARMING CAP IN PLACE...AND
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD...GIVING A PREFERRED
ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT AND INSTABILITY. ALSO...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST...EASTERN KY
WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
BRINGING UP A RIVER OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
AVAILABILITY OF WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A RAINY
AFTERNOON AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS AT BAY /AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
AREA/. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO PREVENT DRY
MID/UPPER LEVELS...CUTTING DOWN ON HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SOME OF
THE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL. EXPECT STORM MOTION TO REMAIN NEARLY
SOUTH TO NORTH...INCREASING DURING THE DAY IN COVERAGE AS BEST
MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER IN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO GAIN MORE INFLUENCE LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO ENTER THE AREA AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE BEST BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO MOVE OFF
THE THE EAST...BUT A SMALL BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...SO LINGERING SHOWERS EVEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE THE SOAKER PER SAY THAT IT WAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AT 50H THU MORNING WITH STRONG RIDGES
LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SANDWICHING
A SHARP TROF OVER THE ERN PLAINS. THE FLOW FROM THE SW AT 50H AND SFC
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE OHIO/TENN VALLEY.
DEW POINT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN CHECK WITH FOG NEARLY EVERY NIGHT. FOG
SHOULD BE MAINLY RESTRICTED TO THE VALLEYS AND MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE
AIRPORTS NOT ON THE RIDGE TOPS. BY FRI AFTERNOON THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE OZARKS BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND CLIMB THRU THE GREAT LAKES IN
PIECES WITH ONE PIECE FRI NIGHT. THE REMAINING LOW BECOMES CUT OF
OVER MISSOURI AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
NRN CONUS BORDER. THE CUT OFF LOW FINALLY GETS PICKED UP IN THE FAST
ZONAL FLOW BY TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN
MTNS. AT THE SFC THE SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WITH QUIETER PERIODS
OVERNIGHT. THIS DIRTY RIDGE AT THE SFC WILL KEEP ERN KY IN A WET
PATTERN BUT THE AIRBORNE WATER VAPOR WILL ALSO ABSORB MUCH OF THE DAY
TIME HEATING THRU A DEEPER LAYER. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY HOLD BNDRY
LAYER HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HARD TO TIME DISTURBANCES ROTATE NORTHWARD
AROUND AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE IS FORCING A
BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP THE I-75
CORRIDOR FROM TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT AND THESE WILL AFFECT LOZ AND
POSSIBLY SME BETWEEN 0630Z AND DAWN. BEYOND THAT...WILL HAVE TO
BROAD BRUSH A VCTS/VCSH MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
DESPITE INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...TIMING THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO A GIVEN LOCATION WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY LEVEL OF CERTAINTY. WHERE STORMS DO HIT...THEY WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATES...HAL/ABE
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1231 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO
OUR SOUTH APPEAR POISED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND REGION OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING NORTH INTO TENNESSEE SO
WOULD EXPECT THIS TO FORCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY. JUST SENT ALONG A QUICK UPDATE TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. STILL HELD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER BACK IN THOUGH DESPITE THE FEW STRIKES OVER THE
PLATEAU TO OUR SOUTH. HOPEFULLY...THESE WONT SNEAK OVER THE
LINE...BUT WILL MONITOR. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE...BUT HAVE NOT DISAPPEARED. POP FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 20 PERCENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 859 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATED EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REVISE EVENING POP GRIDS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL LOOK FOR MOST PRECIP TO DIE OUT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND THE 18Z NAM BOTH SHOWED SOME SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT AROUND DAWN. HAVE PLACED THE 00Z-12Z POP IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CAPPING IS IN PLACE
ACCORDING TO LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME RISING ABOVE THIS WARM LAYER
/AROUND 12K FEET/ AND AS A RESULT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SAW SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN
SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER THE PREVIOUS HOURS...YET LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...JUST WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ONE
SHOWER HAS BEEN ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE WARM LAYER AND CONTINUE TO
GROW...PRODUCING SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NWS OFFICE. THE
QUESTION THEN IS...AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...HOW MUCH WILL THIS WARM LAYER BE ERODED AND HOW MANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH AND
MODIFYING THE SOUNDING. IF THIS IS ABLE TO OCCUR...SOME EVENING TSRA
COULD TAP INTO THE BEST INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NOT ONLY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT HIGH WINDS
AND HAIL AS WELL.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST WEEK...MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WILL
LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
BECOME AS WIDESPREAD OR THICK AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.
NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AT A MUCH BETTER SET UP FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LESS OF A MID LEVEL WARMING CAP IN PLACE...AND
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD...GIVING A PREFERRED
ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT AND INSTABILITY. ALSO...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST...EASTERN KY
WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
BRINGING UP A RIVER OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
AVAILABILITY OF WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A RAINY
AFTERNOON AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS AT BAY /AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
AREA/. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO PREVENT DRY
MID/UPPER LEVELS...CUTTING DOWN ON HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SOME OF
THE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL. EXPECT STORM MOTION TO REMAIN NEARLY
SOUTH TO NORTH...INCREASING DURING THE DAY IN COVERAGE AS BEST
MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER IN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO GAIN MORE INFLUENCE LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO ENTER THE AREA AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE BEST BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO MOVE OFF
THE THE EAST...BUT A SMALL BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...SO LINGERING SHOWERS EVEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE THE SOAKER PER SAY THAT IT WAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AT 50H THU MORNING WITH STRONG RIDGES
LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SANDWICHING
A SHARP TROF OVER THE ERN PLAINS. THE FLOW FROM THE SW AT 50H AND SFC
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE OHIO/TENN VALLEY.
DEW POINT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN CHECK WITH FOG NEARLY EVERY NIGHT. FOG
SHOULD BE MAINLY RESTRICTED TO THE VALLEYS AND MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE
AIRPORTS NOT ON THE RIDGE TOPS. BY FRI AFTERNOON THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE OZARKS BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND CLIMB THRU THE GREAT LAKES IN
PIECES WITH ONE PIECE FRI NIGHT. THE REMAINING LOW BECOMES CUT OF
OVER MISSOURI AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
NRN CONUS BORDER. THE CUT OFF LOW FINALLY GETS PICKED UP IN THE FAST
ZONAL FLOW BY TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN
MTNS. AT THE SFC THE SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WITH QUIETER PERIODS
OVERNIGHT. THIS DIRTY RIDGE AT THE SFC WILL KEEP ERN KY IN A WET
PATTERN BUT THE AIRBORNE WATER VAPOR WILL ALSO ABSORB MUCH OF THE DAY
TIME HEATING THRU A DEEPER LAYER. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY HOLD BNDRY
LAYER HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 859 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHICH FUELED THEM. LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG WILL
THEN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...TIMING THEM AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS
POINT. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BRING IFR WHERE THEY
PASS...AND LOCALIZED IFR IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM THE VALLEY FOG.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND FOG...MAINLY VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATES...HAL/ABE
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
321 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A VERY WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRIMARY FEATURE IS STRONG BERMUDA HIGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY TO HAVE
USED THE RUC TO INITIALIZE POP GRIDS INTO THIS EVENING THEN
TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF THE NAM12...GFS40 ...CEMREG...SREF AND
ECMWF. FOR TEMPERATURE HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS WITH MOSG25. LATEST
VERIFICATION INDICATES HIGH BIAS SO HAVE LOWERED THE MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM A FEW DEGREES. FOR WIND HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND MOSG25.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WE ARE LOOKING FOR HOT, HUMID
WEATHER WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS. THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
WARM WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES THAT MAY
HELP SPARK THE CONVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. THIS
WILL ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT KFVE...KCAR AND
KHUL. IFR POSSIBLE KBHB AND KBGR.
SHORT TERM:
EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALLY WORSE CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, AND IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE NAM12 AND GFS40. WILL DECREASE WIND SPEED BY 20 PERCENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT THURSDAY BUT THIS
SHOULD BE OFF-SET BY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. LONG PERIOD WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON SPECTRAL
EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTH/8 SECONDS WITH SECONDARY SOUTHEAST
WAVE GROUP 14+ SECONDS. COMBINED SEA IS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
SCA.
SHORT TERM:
WE ARE LOOKING FOR SW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET, SO CONDITIONS
REMAINING A LITTLE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...TD
AVIATION...MIGNONE/FOISY
MARINE...MIGNONE/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1013 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY...AS A BERMUDA
HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BLOCKING SETUP FROM THE ERN PACIFIC TO THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS
INHIBITED MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN A BERMUDA RIDGE
AND A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. TROPOSPHERIC-
DEEP S-SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
DRAWING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE POLEWARD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. SAT BLENDED TOTAL PWATS AND MRNG IAD RAOB
CONFIRM A VERY SATURATED AIRMASS OVER THE CWA WITH PWATS OVER 2
INCHES.
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THE FORCING THIS MRNG FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN I-95 TO THE
SHENANDOAH VLY HAS BEEN AN ELONGATED MID-LVL TROUGH ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. LATEST HRRR HAS THE BULK OF THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ERY THIS AFTN. TRICKY
FCST TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP LATER
TDA. CURRENT THINKING IS WITH THE RIDGE FCST TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY
WWD...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WWD THIS AFTN AND EVE TOWARD THE MTS. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CHSPK BAY IF BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS CONTINUE AND A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SHARPENS.
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY WOULD BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
HEATING BOUNDARY WHILE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND LIMIT
INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT OF SUCH ACTIVITY AND THE FACT THAT ANY FLOODING MAY BE
LOCALIZED...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREV FCST TO SHARPEN THE W-E TEMP
GRADIENT. HIGHS RANGE FROM UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F IN THE SHENANDOAH
VLY AND WRN SUBURBS OF DC TO MU80S IN SRN MD.
CONTINUE TO ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS
LINGERING ACTIVITY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LIFT FROM ANY
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. KEPT FCST FOR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DRY
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT OF CLEARING LATE
TNGT. ANY BREAKS THOUGH WOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION MAY NOT
BE AS STRONG DUE TO LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH.
ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE EACH
DAY FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY AND ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
BREAKS DOWN DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE
LEANED CLOSER TOWARD THE EURO WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE A BIT
LONGER. EITHER WAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN MORE THAN ANTICIPATED
THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS OVER THE
TERMINALS THIS MRNG WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DAYTIME MIXING AND
PROMOTE LOW CIGS IN THE IFR RANGE /EXCEPT AT MRB/ AND VARYING
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE BEEN UPDATING TAFS TO REFLECT A DELAYED
IMPROVEMENT IN IFR CIGS UNTIL MIDDAY...WHICH IS LONGER THAN
LAMP/HRRR OR ANY OTHER AVIATION GUIDANCE INDICATES. ONCE THIS
ROUND OF SHRA MOVE OUT...CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO HIGH-END MVFR OR VFR
DURING THE AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY AN ISO TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE TDA. BEST CHANCE ATTM APPEARS TO BE 20Z-00Z
TIMEFRAME.
STRATUS AND FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATE TNGT...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY
CLEARING OCCURS. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE FAVORING MORE OF AN IMPACT
WITH LOW CLOUDS VS FOG FOR THE TERMINALS.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE TERMINALS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME
ALONG WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY BR/FOG MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD END UP DRY DUE TO
A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...
ONLY THE CHSPK BAY FROM DRUM POINT TO SMITH POINT AND THE TANGIER
SOUND REMAIN IN A SCA. WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN DURING THE
DAYTIME...WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THIS SCA DURING THE
AFTN...IF NOT BEFORE. WIDELY SCT STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN IN
THE BAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SMWS IN THE BAY THIS AFTN
AND ERY EVE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD TURN OUT DRY DUE TO A
STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/BPP
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/JRK
MARINE...BJL/JRK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
546 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY...AS A BERMUDA
HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z/03 JUL KIAD RAOB INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEAR 2
INCHES. MODELS KEEP SIMILARLY HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST. RESULT IS BROAD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY OR DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...HIGH MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN H5 FLOW
COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
AT 07Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED ONE BATCH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...POISED TO MOVE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN EXPANDING OUTWARD WITH
TIME. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE STRATIFORM THE FURTHER
NORTH IT GETS...BUT COULD RESULT IN SOME PONDING OF WATER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ITS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
MOST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY WILL SET UP. THIS MAY OCCUR IN AREAS OF LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD SREFS/HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...FAVORING LIKELY POPS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND
WESTWARD...AND THEN CHANCE FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE BAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF SUCH ACTIVITY
AND THE FACT THAT ANY FLOODING MAY BE LOCALIZED...DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AS LINGERING ACTIVITY
WANES...AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH MOST MODELS/SREFS SUGGESTING A
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FAVORED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS. THERE WAS A SEVERAL DEGREE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE HIGHER
MAV/COOLER MET FOR TODAY AND THE BLEND WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE...THEN
WERE SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION MAY NOT
BE AS STRONG DUE TO LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH.
ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE EACH
DAY FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY AND ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
BREAKS DOWN DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE
LEANED CLOSER TOWARD THE EURO WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE A BIT
LONGER. EITHER WAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN MORE THAN ANTICIPATED
THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING REGARDING CIGS. RIBBON OF
MAINLY IFR CIGS EXISTS FROM CHO UP TOWARD IAD...WITH VFR OUTSIDE OF
THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA THROUGH
SUNRISE...WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS DROPPING TO JUST MVFR MAINLY AFT
09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH LAMP VSBYS
ARE TOO LOW AND GENERALLY KEPT PREVAILING P6SM IN TAFS. ANOTHER
CONSIDERATION THROUGH SUNRISE WILL BE THE AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA THAT WILL MOVE NORTH WITH TIME...WHICH COULD IMPACT BOTH
CIGS/VSBYS. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS PREVAILING SHRA AFT 15Z...BUT
WILL HAVE TO AMEND TAFS IF RADAR TRENDS HOLD WITH THE INITIAL BATCH
OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY AFFECTING IAD/DCA AFT 09Z. HRRR SUGGESTS BWI
COULD BE AFFECTED TOO.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE TERMINALS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME
ALONG WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY BR/FOG MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD END UP DRY DUE TO
A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HAVE CANCELLED MUCH OF THE
SCA ONLY LEAVING THE BAY FROM DRUM POINT TO SMITH POINT AND THE
TANGIER SOUND AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD TURN OUT DRY DUE TO A
STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/BJL
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BPP/BJL
MARINE...BPP/BJL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
319 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY...AS A BERMUDA
HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z/03 JUL KIAD RAOB INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEAR 2
INCHES. MODELS KEEP SIMILARLY HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST. RESULT IS BROAD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY OR DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...HIGH MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN H5 FLOW
COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
AT 07Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED ONE BATCH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...POISED TO MOVE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN EXPANDING OUTWARD WITH
TIME. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE STRATIFORM THE FURTHER
NORTH IT GETS...BUT COULD RESULT IN SOME PONDING OF WATER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ITS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
MOST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY WILL SET UP. THIS MAY OCCUR IN AREAS OF LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD SREFS/HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...FAVORING LIKELY POPS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND
WESTWARD...AND THEN CHANCE FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE BAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF SUCH ACTIVITY
AND THE FACT THAT ANY FLOODING MAY BE LOCALIZED...DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AS LINGERING ACTIVITY
WANES...AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH MOST MODELS/SREFS SUGGESTING A
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FAVORED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS. THERE WAS A SEVERAL DEGREE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE HIGHER
MAV/COOLER MET FOR TODAY AND THE BLEND WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE...THEN
WERE SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION MAY NOT
BE AS STRONG DUE TO LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH.
ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE EACH
DAY FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY AND ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
BREAKS DOWN DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE
LEANED CLOSER TOWARD THE EURO WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE A BIT
LONGER. EITHER WAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN MORE THAN ANTICIPATED
THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING REGARDING CIGS. RIBBON OF
MAINLY IFR CIGS EXISTS FROM CHO UP TOWARD IAD...WITH VFR OUTSIDE OF
THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA THROUGH
SUNRISE...WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS DROPPING TO JUST MVFR MAINLY AFT
09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH LAMP VSBYS
ARE TOO LOW AND GENERALLY KEPT PREVAILING P6SM IN TAFS. ANOTHER
CONSIDERATION THROUGH SUNRISE WILL BE THE AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA THAT WILL MOVE NORTH WITH TIME...WHICH COULD IMPACT BOTH
CIGS/VSBYS. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS PREVAILING SHRA AFT 15Z...BUT
WILL HAVE TO AMEND TAFS IF RADAR TRENDS HOLD WITH THE INITIAL BATCH
OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY AFFECTING IAD/DCA AFT 09Z. HRRR SUGGESTS BWI
COULD BE AFFECTED TOO.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE TERMINALS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME
ALONG WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY BR/FOG MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD END UP DRY DUE TO
A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...
TPLM2 REMAINED G20 KT AT 06Z...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CHANNELLING
UP THE BAY. SCA IS IN EFFECT TIL 10Z UP THE BAY...THEN WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNRISE ALTHOUGH STILL COULD HOLD ONTO
NEAR 20 KT GUSTS TOWARD SMITH POINT INTO THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT
WIND SPEEDS ARE CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
COOLER WATERS AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...BUT MOST
OF THE TIME SHOULD TURN OUT DRY DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ531>533-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/BJL
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BPP/BJL
MARINE...BPP/BJL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
857 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS DECREASED AS WE APPROACH SUNSET AND AS
THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME WORKED OVER. STRONGEST STORMS AS OF 830PM
WERE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN BIG HORN INTO SOUTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTIES
AND TRACKING SLOWLY EAST. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS LACKING IN SHEAR
AND THUS STORMS ARE UNORGANIZED...BUT ARE NONETHELESS STILL
PRODUCING SOME HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ACTIVITY HAS
DIED DOWN FROM BILLINGS NORTH AND WEST...AND IN THIS AREA ONLY
ANTICIPATING ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...PER ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM CENTRAL/SE
IDAHO. CURRENT ACTIVITY IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS SHOULD SPREAD
SLOWLY ACROSS SE MT THROUGH THE NIGHT PER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND LOW
LEVEL JET FORCING...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX WORDING TO ACCOUNT FOR EVENING TRENDS.
MORE STORMS COMING TOMORROW AS WE ARE ENTERING AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WHICH WILL LAST SEVERAL DAYS. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
FORECAST PROBLEMS CENTERED MAINLY ON THE TIMING OF WAVES IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM TOO...AND IN FACT
WE TENDED TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /WHILE STILL
RECOGNIZING THAT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW COULD WREAK HAVOC WITH HIGHS/.
TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING ITS OWN OVER THE REGION AS
OF MID AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR 500 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. STORMS FORMING BOTH OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN AND NEAR A MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MT SHOULD
AFFECT THE AREA. THE STORMS NORTH OF ROUNDUP AT 21 UTC HAVE FORMED
NEAR THAT MID-LEVEL FRONT...AND THEY SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MT HEADING INTO EVENING. ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT BEING
SEVERE SINCE IT WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MORE FAVORABLE MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 OR BETTER. RECENT HRRR RUNS
PICK UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND TAKE IT EAST OF BILLINGS...BUT THE 00
UTC NSSL WRF-ARW /WHICH ALSO HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STORMS AS OF
MID AFTERNOON/ SUGGESTS SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN THE MID LEVELS MAY AFFECT THE CITY. CHANCE-STYLE POPS THUS
REMAIN IN PLAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LIKELY POPS UNTIL
06 UTC OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY
POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL
WY TOO. FINALLY...WE LEFT SOME POPS IN PLAY AFTER 06 UTC TOO GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
FRI...WE WILL MAINTAIN AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF MT BY EVENING...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE YIELD A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM AND 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KT OR BETTER. OUR
LIKELY POPS THUS LOOK LIKE A GOOD CALL...THOUGH THE PRECISE TIMING
OF THAT WAVE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND MAY INFLUENCE THE COVERAGE AND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. IN SOUTHEASTERN MT...SOME MODELS LIKE THE
12 UTC NAM SUGGEST EARLY-DAY CONVECTION WITH A WEAKER RIPPLE AHEAD
OF THE BETTER 500-HPA SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST IN THAT PART OF THE AREA CONSIDERABLY IF THAT IS CORRECT.
MOREOVER...SOME 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MIGHT BE
MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT...AND
SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT IN THAT AREA.
SAT...L0W-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
FURTHER. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THUS EXISTS. WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WAVE TIMING TO HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME THOUGH. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES. OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGHING SITTING OVER WASHINGTON
THROUGH MONDAY. LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS UP AND THUS CAPES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HIGH. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
AROUND AN INCH WILL TRANSLATE INTO VERY HEAVY RIAN IN STORMS.
THE NORTHWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH MONTANA ON
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE TROUGH WOULD CONCENTRATE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH THEN SLIDES EAST
WEDNESDAY AND ALLOWS AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PRETTY FLAT AND THUS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM RIDING OVER THE TOP FOR MORE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FLOW BACKS INTO THURSDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP
THE STRING OF CONVECTION GOING. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL. DID RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO GO
ALONG WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED FROM KLVM-KBIL...BUT CONTINUES
NEAR KSHR AS OF 03Z. AREA OF STORMS SOUTHEAST OF KBIL WILL TRACK
SLOWLY ACROSS SE MT TONIGHT...AND THIS AREA IS MOST FAVORED FOR
SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED OTHERWISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...
WITH PREVAILING VFR AND LOCALIZED MVFR...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066/088 062/083 060/088 061/087 061/084 061/085 061/090
25/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
LVM 057/086 053/085 051/084 051/085 051/082 051/085 049/090
26/T 64/T 43/T 43/T 32/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 065/089 062/085 060/091 061/089 061/085 061/086 061/091
45/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
MLS 067/089 065/085 062/091 062/088 062/084 063/086 060/090
36/T 53/T 34/T 33/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
4BQ 061/089 059/085 059/089 059/089 060/084 059/084 058/089
45/T 54/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
BHK 061/085 059/083 058/086 058/085 060/081 057/080 055/085
26/T 63/T 24/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
SHR 060/086 059/082 056/087 055/087 056/083 055/083 054/089
65/T 55/T 55/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
1016 AM PDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING
IN MORE VERY WARM WEATHER WITH ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
A TROUGH WILL APPROACH TOMORROW...WITH SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
COOL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.UPDATE...UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY TO A WARNING
AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MAJOR LIGHTNING OUTBREAK ON THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV. SHORT WAVE WILL STALL ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. 91
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 254 AM /
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING
IN MORE VERY WARM WEATHER WITH ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
A TROUGH WILL APPROACH TOMORROW...WITH SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
COOL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING WAS HAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOCALES NORTH OF
I-80. WITH THE SLOW MOVING NATURE...THESE STORMS PRODUCED SOME
ROBUST QPF AMOUNTS. GETTING GROUND TRUTH WAS DIFFICULT AS THESE
STORMS HAD TO MOVE OVER OBSERVERS OR REMOTE SENSING EQUIPMENT. OF
THE RAWS SITES IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...DOUBLE H CAME IN WITH 1.02 INCHES
AND DRY CANYON SHOWED 0.16 INCHES. IN NORTHWEST ELKO
COUNTY...ANTELOPE RAWS RECEIVED 0.09 INCHES. STORM MOTION WAS
GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH AT A SLOW 5 MPH OR SO. RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING AND THE HRRR GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...AND SO
SITES COULD SEE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION.
IT IS TURNING OUT TO BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE
LOOP THIS MORNING IS SHOWING DEBRIS CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. AS OF 1 AM...ELKO...WEST
WENDOVER...AND TONOPAH HAVE NOT DROPPED BELOW 80 DEGREES YET.
EXPECTING THE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO HEAT THINGS UP PRETTY QUICK. LOOKING AT ANOTHER
WARM DAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK. HAVE KEPT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING GOING FOR TODAY...AND WE SHOULD COOL OFF SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME...GOES GPS SOUNDER AND GPS MET DEPICTING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF RIGHT AROUND 0.80 FOR THE AUSTIN AREA AND WITH
ABOUT 1 INCH IN THE ELKO AREA. THE ONE INCH MEASURED AT ELKO WAS
DUE TO A RECENT SPIKE UP AS AN OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN THE NORTH
HELPED TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOT UP A
FEW DEGREES. MODELS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE WELL ENOUGH
AND THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF PW GRADIENT SETTING UP WITH
HUMBOLDT AND SOME OF ELKO COUNTY SEEING INCREASES TO ABOUT 0.90 TO
1 INCH AND OTHER LOCATIONS POSSIBLE SEEING RIGHT AROUND 0.75
INCHES. THIS POSES SOME ISSUES FIRE WEATHER-WISE AND THE
DISCUSSION WILL BE HANDLED BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. SLOW
STORM MOTION...0 TO 5 MPH...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE RULE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA AS THE 700-500MB HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION SETS UP
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM SPEEDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY...ABOUT 10-15 MPH. BEST CAPE VALUES...OF 400-800 J/KG
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HUMBOLDT...LANDER...AND NORTHWEST NYE COUNTIES. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS. FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF THIS AREA...HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE.
EXPECTING COVERAGE TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE WARM DUE TO DEBRIS CLOUD OVERHEAD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCOMING TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED
SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...BUT
WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE RECEIVED. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A 250MB JET OF ABOUT 45-50 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEVADA. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 600-1000
J/KG RANGE OVER HUMBOLDT...LANDER...AND NORTHWEST NYE COUNTIES.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30-35
KNOTS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-
LIVED...THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH BRINGS
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE GREAT BASIN WITH LI`S OF -3 TO
-4...ALSO JET SUPPORT WITH 45 TO 50 KNOT JET STREAK TO NORTH PUTTING
AREA IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WHICH WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION. EXPECT A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO PW`S
FROM .80 TO NEAR ONE INCH AND STORM MOTIONS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA AS TROUGH RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WEST AND RIDGE
BUILDS NEAR FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SEE TROUGH PUSH MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND RIDGE
RE-ESTABLISHING OVER GREAT BASIN WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S WITH SLIGHT COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THINNING LATER THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KWMC...KEKO AND KTPH AND 15
TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR KELY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WETTING
THE RUNWAYS ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS KWMC AND KTPH.
FIRE WEATHER...AFTER AN ACTIVE NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
CLEARING THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR FULL HEATING TO OCCUR. IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST WITH MODELS
SHOWING SOME KIND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT SETTING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. FIRE ZONES 467 AND 468 ARE EXPECTED TO SEE INCREASES
TO ABOUT 0.90 TO 1 INCH...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCHES WILL
BE SEEN OVER FIRE ZONES 455...470 AND THE EASTERN SECTION OF 457. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS OF 0 TO 5 MPH WILL PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FIRE
DISTRICT...EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 469 AND 470 WHERE
SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE FORECAST. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE DIVIDING LINE
BETWEEN MAINLY DRY STORMS VERSUS MAINLY WET STORMS. BEST CAPE
VALUES...400-800 J/KG...ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...FIRE ZONES 467 AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF 468...454...AND 457. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED
WET COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS. BUT FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THIS
AREA...HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THURSDAY...UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MAJOR LIGHTNING OUTBREAK ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV. SOME STORMS WILL BE WET
UNDER THE CORES BUT OVERALL MOSTLY DRY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL STALL ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO SCATTERED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COOLER THAN WHAT THEY
HAVE BEEN.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN
ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
254 AM PDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING
IN MORE VERY WARM WEATHER WITH ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
A TROUGH WILL APPROACH TOMORROW...WITH SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
COOL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING WAS HAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOCALES NORTH OF
I-80. WITH THE SLOW MOVING NATURE...THESE STORMS PRODUCED SOME
ROBUST QPF AMOUNTS. GETTING GROUND TRUTH WAS DIFFICULT AS THESE
STORMS HAD TO MOVE OVER OBSERVERS OR REMOTE SENSING EQUIPMENT. OF
THE RAWS SITES IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...DOUBLE H CAME IN WITH 1.02 INCHES
AND DRY CANYON SHOWED 0.16 INCHES. IN NORTHWEST ELKO
COUNTY...ANTELOPE RAWS RECEIVED 0.09 INCHES. STORM MOTION WAS
GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH AT A SLOW 5 MPH OR SO. RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING AND THE HRRR GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...AND SO
SITES COULD SEE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION.
IT IS TURNING OUT TO BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE
LOOP THIS MORNING IS SHOWING DEBRIS CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. AS OF 1 AM...ELKO...WEST
WENDOVER...AND TONOPAH HAVE NOT DROPPED BELOW 80 DEGREES YET.
EXPECTING THE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO HEAT THINGS UP PRETTY QUICK. LOOKING AT ANOTHER
WARM DAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK. HAVE KEPT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING GOING FOR TODAY...AND WE SHOULD COOL OFF SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME...GOES GPS SOUNDER AND GPS MET DEPICTING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF RIGHT AROUND 0.80 FOR THE AUSTIN AREA AND WITH
ABOUT 1 INCH IN THE ELKO AREA. THE ONE INCH MEASURED AT ELKO WAS
DUE TO A RECENT SPIKE UP AS AN OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN THE NORTH
HELPED TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOT UP A
FEW DEGREES. MODELS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE WELL ENOUGH
AND THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF PW GRADIENT SETTING UP WITH
HUMBOLDT AND SOME OF ELKO COUNTY SEEING INCREASES TO ABOUT 0.90 TO
1 INCH AND OTHER LOCATIONS POSSIBLE SEEING RIGHT AROUND 0.75
INCHES. THIS POSES SOME ISSUES FIRE WEATHER-WISE AND THE
DISCUSSION WILL BE HANDLED BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. SLOW
STORM MOTION...0 TO 5 MPH...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE RULE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA AS THE 700-500MB HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION SETS UP
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM SPEEDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY...ABOUT 10-15 MPH. BEST CAPE VALUES...OF 400-800 J/KG
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HUMBOLDT...LANDER...AND NORTHWEST NYE COUNTIES. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS. FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF THIS AREA...HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE.
EXPECTING COVERAGE TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE WARM DUE TO DEBRIS CLOUD OVERHEAD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCOMING TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED
SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...BUT
WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE RECEIVED. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A 250MB JET OF ABOUT 45-50 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEVADA. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 600-1000
J/KG RANGE OVER HUMBOLDT...LANDER...AND NORTHWEST NYE COUNTIES.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30-35
KNOTS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-
LIVED...THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH BRINGS
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE GREAT BASIN WITH LI`S OF -3 TO
-4...ALSO JET SUPPORT WITH 45 TO 50 KNOT JET STREAK TO NORTH PUTTING
AREA IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WHICH WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION. EXPECT A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO PW`S
FROM .80 TO NEAR ONE INCH AND STORM MOTIONS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA AS TROUGH RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WEST AND RIDGE
BUILDS NEAR FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SEE TROUGH PUSH MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND RIDGE
RE-ESTABLISHING OVER GREAT BASIN WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S WITH SLIGHT COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THINNING LATER THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KWMC...KEKO AND KTPH AND 15
TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR KELY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WETTING
THE RUNWAYS ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS KWMC AND KTPH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER AN ACTIVE NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
CLEARING THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR FULL HEATING TO OCCUR. IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST WITH MODELS
SHOWING SOME KIND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT SETTING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. FIRE ZONES 467 AND 468 ARE EXPECTED TO SEE INCREASES
TO ABOUT 0.90 TO 1 INCH...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCHES WILL
BE SEEN OVER FIRE ZONES 455...470 AND THE EASTERN SECTION OF 457. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS OF 0 TO 5 MPH WILL PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FIRE
DISTRICT...EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 469 AND 470 WHERE
SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE FORECAST. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE DIVIDING LINE
BETWEEN MAINLY DRY STORMS VERSUS MAINLY WET STORMS. BEST CAPE
VALUES...400-800 J/KG...ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...FIRE ZONES 467 AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF 468...454...AND 457. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED
WET COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS. BUT FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THIS
AREA...HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE GETTING SUPPRESSED SOUTH. AN
UPPER LEVEL JET...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND FASTER STORM SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH ALL POINT TO A
POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING OUTBREAK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT DRY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
ENTIRE FIRE DISTRICT...BUT SOME DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED
OUT. STORM SPEEDS IN FIRE ZONE 454 AND 455 LOOK TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER AT 5-10 MPH...AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WETTING
RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT FUTURE GUIDANCE AND PASS THIS
INFORMATION ONTO THE NEXT SHIFT. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTACT WITH NO CHANGES.
LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COOLER THAN WHAT THEY
HAVE BEEN.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN
ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN
ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.
&&
$$
86/90/90/86
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CIRRUS CLOUDS LIMITING THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER CENTRAL NM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MAIN AREA OF SCT STORMS OVER SW MTNS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLD STORMS ELSEWHERE. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIE OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK WAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER
HIGH WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY GETTING
CONVECTION GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM LATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
SCT -TSRA MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST/SW BREEZES WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS OVER ERN CO.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013...
STORMS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO START TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. LAPS
ANALYSIS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A NOSE OF A JET MOVING MOVING INTO THE
STATE...THOUGH SOME MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY AS YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABOVE
REASONS...THOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE A STORM OR TWO THAT PRODUCES
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WEST...NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF ACTIVITY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE HRRR ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NM AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL HAPPEN. FOCUSED POPS
MAINLY ACROSS WC/SW AREAS...THOUGH CONTINUED SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WHERE STORMS ARE JUST INCREASING IN
COVERAGE.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL INCH EASTWARD FRIDAY...CENTERING OVER EASTERN
AZ. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS THAT
DESPITE SOME WEAK W/NW FLOW BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS NW
NM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABUNDANT. OTHER MODELS ARE
NOT AS BULLISH ON QPF...THOUGH SEEMINGLY...THE NAM HAS BEEN
PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS OF LATE REGARDING
CONVECTION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE PERHAPS
ROUNDING THE HIGH. THUS...KNOCKED POPS UP A BIT MORE FOR
FRIDAY...AND SPREAD THEM EASTWARD A BIT AS WELL. STEERING FLOW
SHOULD TAKE STORMS A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...THOUGH OVERALL
IT WILL BE LIGHTER.
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE SQUARE OVER NM. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO KEEP THE AREA CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE WEAK...THROUGH STORMS MAY NOT BE AS POTENT GIVEN THE
UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD. ON SUNDAY...THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF SHIFT
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH EASTWARD OVER OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING FOR WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A MORE TRADITIONAL PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL NM. MEANWHILE...THE NAM AND THE GFS KEEP THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH OVER NM...LIMITING ANY NORTHWARD MOVING MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS...SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE...THOUGH WILL BE MORESO IF THE
HIGH CAN SHIFT EAST.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL WOBBLE AROUND
SOME...AND MODELS STILL ARE AT ODDS WITH WHERE IT WILL END UP. AN
EASTERLY WAVE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO...AND
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MAY HELP SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY A SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY...AS THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST HAS BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED
AND THE CENTER HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTH...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN ARIZONA. UPPER LOW STILL OVER MISSOURI. GRADIENT ACROSS
NEW MEXICO HAS RELAXED A BIT BUT STILL A 60 KNOT UPPER JET OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND A LITTLE SLOWER TO FIRE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. STILL EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STEERING FLOW IS STILL NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH MAGNITUDES JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS TO BE FAVORED WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
EAST.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND WITH LITTLE SCOURING OF MOISTURE DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THE STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM DAY TO DAY.
BY LATE FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME WESTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER MISSOURI...THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BE WEAKER YET...WITH A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS SHIFT...ALONG WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH SIMILAR
DISTRIBUTIONS TO TODAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY... THE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
RECYCLING IN PLACE. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SLOWER MOVING WETTING RAIN...WITH THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS SEEING THE LEAST ACTION.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST WHILE
ELONGATING IT TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES. DRIER AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A HIGH HAINES OF 6
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
WETTING RAIN WITH SMALL FOOTPRINTS.
RH RECOVERIES TO BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FAIR VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
HIGHLANDS. VENTILATION TO BE MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR VALUES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING ON THURSDAY WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY. BY
FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH DECREASED CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11AM UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO DISCUSSION. HAVE INCRESED POP
CHANCES IN THE FINGER LAKES AREA DUE TO PRESENCE OF STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POP
CHANCE IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES AS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD FROM EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
LATEST 13Z HRRR AND 12Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE PLAIN. MAIN THREAT WITH
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, AS
BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES AROUND 2".
ADDITIONALLY, ALSO WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THREAT
AS SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES REACHING 1500 J/KG AND
SURFACE CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES RIGHT NOW ARE AROUND 30KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL BE WATCHING THIS AFTERNOON, ESPCIALLY NEAR THE AREAS THAT
HAVE RECIEVED MAJOR FLOODING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
DESPITE MUCH OF THE EAST COAST REMAINING IN A VERY MOIST...SEMI-
TROPICAL AIRMASS. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK SHWR
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHWRS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA. THIS
SECONDARY AREA OF SHWRS TO OUR SOUTH IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY A
NORTHWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A 40-45 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH AREA 88D VWPS CONTINUE TO SAMPLE TO OUR SOUTH.
SEVERAL SITES REPORTING FOG THIS MORNING AS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY
AS THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS ENVELOPED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING NEAR 2" PER ALL AVAILABLE MODEL
DATA...CONCERNS THIS MORNING REMAIN FOCUSED ON A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WITH ANY SHWRS/STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IDENTIFIABLE
FORCING FEATURES AS MAIN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TODAY. WITH
VARIOUS MODELS OFFERING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 500-1000 JOULES OF CAPE
DURING PEAK HEATING...STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IF
ACTIVITY WERE TO DEVELOP. THAT SAID...CLOSE MODEL INSPECTION
SUGGESTS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING WHICH MAY SERVE AS A
MECHANISM TO GET THINGS GOING. DESPITE THIS...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE BASED ON WEAK NATURE OF
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL FEATURE. AS A RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO
ONLY OFFER A HIGH CHC POP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
BY TONIGHT...BULK OF AFTERNOON SHWR/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. LOWS THIS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER OFFERING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. AS DE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS...STRONGER WESTERLIES POSITIONED TO OUR WEST
WILL TEMPORARILY SETTLE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA. WITH RESPECT TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHWR/STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD OFFERING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AS REGION WARMS WILL INTO THE LWR TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. THAT SAID...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CENTERED ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. SPC DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
OUR REGION IN A "SEE TEXT" SUGGESTING ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. IN ADDITION...VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ANY SHWRS/STORMS LIKELY
TO BE EFFICIENT RAINERS THUS ALSO CONTINUING CONCERNS FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE TO CONTINUE BUILDING WITH MODEST
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING 850 TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR
18C BY AFTERNOON. WITH MAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINING
WELL WEST AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SPARSER COVERAGE OF SHWR/STORMS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRAY LOW 90S
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
TROF IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WILL ADVERTISE HIGH CHC POPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. REMAINING PERIOD WILL HAVE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WITH CHC POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND JUST
SLIGHT CHC FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SEASONAL MAX TEMPS AND ABOVE AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOIST, SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THROUGH LATE EVENING PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. AT KRME/KSYR,
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z FOR MVFR THUNDERSTORMS AS
BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN. AT KAVP, INCLUDED
A THREE HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR SHOWERS AS A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT CONVECTION OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED.
FOR TONIGHT, ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH VSBY/CIGS BEGINNING AROUND
06Z-08Z. AT KELM, IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z-12Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z.
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT S/SE OVERNIGHT THEN
SOUTHWEST 5-8 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT THROUGH MONDAY...AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. ALSO...EARLY EACH
AM...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CLDS/FOG ARE FORESEEN.
OTHWS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE DROPPED WARNNGS AT CONKLIN AND VESTAL AS THE LATEST FCSTS NOW
SHOWING LWRD QPF AND RVRS CREST BLO FLOOD. SHERBURNS CANCELLED AS
WEL WUITH THE RVR DROPPING BLO FLOOD STAGE. CONTD WARNING AT
WAVERLY AS THE RVR JUST TOUCHES FLOOD EARLY THU.
RAINFALL AMTS WERE MUCH LWR ON WED IN TURN LWRG CRESTS XPCTD AT
FCST POINTS. TODAY WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME WITH JUST SCT CONV CELLS
AND MUCH LWR PCPN INPUT TO RVRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/MSE
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1235 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING ON THURSDAY WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY. BY
FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH DECREASED CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11AM UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO DISCUSSION. HAVE INCRESED POP
CHANCES IN THE FINGER LAKES AREA DUE TO PRESENCE OF STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POP
CHANCE IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES AS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD FROM EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
LATEST 13Z HRRR AND 12Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE PLAIN. MAIN THREAT WITH
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, AS
BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES AROUND 2".
ADDITIONALLY, ALSO WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THREAT
AS SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES REACHING 1500 J/KG AND
SURFACE CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES RIGHT NOW ARE AROUND 30KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL BE WATCHING THIS AFTERNOON, ESPCIALLY NEAR THE AREAS THAT
HAVE RECIEVED MAJOR FLOODING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
DESPITE MUCH OF THE EAST COAST REMAINING IN A VERY MOIST...SEMI-
TROPICAL AIRMASS. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK SHWR
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHWRS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA. THIS
SECONDARY AREA OF SHWRS TO OUR SOUTH IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY A
NORTHWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A 40-45 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH AREA 88D VWPS CONTINUE TO SAMPLE TO OUR SOUTH.
SEVERAL SITES REPORTING FOG THIS MORNING AS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY
AS THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS ENVELOPED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING NEAR 2" PER ALL AVAILABLE MODEL
DATA...CONCERNS THIS MORNING REMAIN FOCUSED ON A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WITH ANY SHWRS/STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IDENTIFIABLE
FORCING FEATURES AS MAIN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TODAY. WITH
VARIOUS MODELS OFFERING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 500-1000 JOULES OF CAPE
DURING PEAK HEATING...STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IF
ACTIVITY WERE TO DEVELOP. THAT SAID...CLOSE MODEL INSPECTION
SUGGESTS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING WHICH MAY SERVE AS A
MECHANISM TO GET THINGS GOING. DESPITE THIS...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE BASED ON WEAK NATURE OF
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL FEATURE. AS A RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO
ONLY OFFER A HIGH CHC POP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
BY TONIGHT...BULK OF AFTERNOON SHWR/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. LOWS THIS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER OFFERING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. AS DE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS...STRONGER WESTERLIES POSITIONED TO OUR WEST
WILL TEMPORARILY SETTLE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA. WITH RESPECT TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHWR/STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD OFFERING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AS REGION WARMS WILL INTO THE LWR TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. THAT SAID...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CENTERED ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. SPC DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
OUR REGION IN A "SEE TEXT" SUGGESTING ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. IN ADDITION...VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ANY SHWRS/STORMS LIKELY
TO BE EFFICIENT RAINERS THUS ALSO CONTINUING CONCERNS FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE TO CONTINUE BUILDING WITH MODEST
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING 850 TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR
18C BY AFTERNOON. WITH MAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINING
WELL WEST AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SPARSER COVERAGE OF SHWR/STORMS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRAY LOW 90S
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
TROF IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WILL ADVERTISE HIGH CHC POPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. REMAINING PERIOD WILL HAVE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WITH CHC POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND JUST
SLIGHT CHC FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SEASONAL MAX TEMPS AND ABOVE AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLY FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTS TODAY. SOME PTCHY IFR FOG THIS MRNG AS
A RESULT OF ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX AFT SUNRISE. VFR
CONDS THRU THE DAY MAY BE OCNLY INTERRUPTED BY MVFR SHWRS AS HTG
DVLPS CONV. TRWS SHD BE ISLTD ENUF TO NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. A RETURN TO VFR AND LGT WINDS AFT SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THROUGH SUN...AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. ALSO...EARLY EACH
AM...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CLDS/FOG ARE FORESEEN.
OTHWS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE DROPPED WARNNGS AT CONKLIN AND VESTAL AS THE LATEST FCSTS NOW
SHOWING LWRD QPF AND RVRS CREST BLO FLOOD. SHERBURNS CANCELLED AS
WEL WUITH THE RVR DROPPING BLO FLOOD STAGE. CONTD WARNING AT
WAVERLY AS THE RVR JUST TOUCHES FLOOD EARLY THU.
RAINFALL AMTS WERE MUCH LWR ON WED IN TURN LWRG CRESTS XPCTD AT
FCST POINTS. TODAY WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME WITH JUST SCT CONV CELLS
AND MUCH LWR PCPN INPUT TO RVRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/MSE
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DGM
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1112 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING ON THURSDAY WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY. BY
FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH DECREASED CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11AM UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO DISCUSSION. HAVE INCRESED POP
CHANCES IN THE FINGER LAKES AREA DUE TO PRESENCE OF STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POP
CHANCE IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES AS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD FROM EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
LATEST 13Z HRRR AND 12Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE PLAIN. MAIN THREAT WITH
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, AS
BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES AROUND 2".
ADDITIONALLY, ALSO WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THREAT
AS SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES REACHING 1500 J/KG AND
SURFACE CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES RIGHT NOW ARE AROUND 30KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL BE WATCHING THIS AFTERNOON, ESPCIALLY NEAR THE AREAS THAT
HAVE RECIEVED MAJOR FLOODING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
DESPITE MUCH OF THE EAST COAST REMAINING IN A VERY MOIST...SEMI-
TROPICAL AIRMASS. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK SHWR
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHWRS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA. THIS
SECONDARY AREA OF SHWRS TO OUR SOUTH IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY A
NORTHWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A 40-45 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH AREA 88D VWPS CONTINUE TO SAMPLE TO OUR SOUTH.
SEVERAL SITES REPORTING FOG THIS MORNING AS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY
AS THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS ENVELOPED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING NEAR 2" PER ALL AVAILABLE MODEL
DATA...CONCERNS THIS MORNING REMAIN FOCUSED ON A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WITH ANY SHWRS/STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IDENTIFIABLE
FORCING FEATURES AS MAIN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TODAY. WITH
VARIOUS MODELS OFFERING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 500-1000 JOULES OF CAPE
DURING PEAK HEATING...STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IF
ACTIVITY WERE TO DEVELOP. THAT SAID...CLOSE MODEL INSPECTION
SUGGESTS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING WHICH MAY SERVE AS A
MECHANISM TO GET THINGS GOING. DESPITE THIS...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE BASED ON WEAK NATURE OF
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL FEATURE. AS A RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO
ONLY OFFER A HIGH CHC POP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
BY TONIGHT...BULK OF AFTERNOON SHWR/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. LOWS THIS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER OFFERING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. AS DE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS...STRONGER WESTERLIES POSITIONED TO OUR WEST
WILL TEMPORARILY SETTLE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA. WITH RESPECT TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHWR/STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD OFFERING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AS REGION WARMS WILL INTO THE LWR TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. THAT SAID...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CENTERED ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. SPC DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
OUR REGION IN A "SEE TEXT" SUGGESTING ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. IN ADDITION...VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ANY SHWRS/STORMS LIKELY
TO BE EFFICIENT RAINERS THUS ALSO CONTINUING CONCERNS FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE TO CONTINUE BUILDING WITH MODEST
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING 850 TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR
18C BY AFTERNOON. WITH MAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINING
WELL WEST AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SPARSER COVERAGE OF SHWR/STORMS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRAY LOW 90S
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S UPDATE AS RATHER
STAGNANT NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BROAD
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDWEST TROF
REMAINING. TRENDS SUGGEST A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WHICH MAY TAKE
THE SERIOUS RAIN AND FLOOD CONCERNS TO OUR WEST. HEIGHT FALLS FROM
THE POLAR JET MAY ALSO WORK ON FLATTENING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGH DWPT AIR AND WARM TEMPS. WITHOUT MUCH NOTED
IN THE MODELS TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN...THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO
FEATURE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TRENDS IN POPS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY WITH
SOME REPRIEVE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
DAYTIME...AND MID-UPR 60S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLY FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTS TODAY. SOME PTCHY IFR FOG THIS MRNG AS
A RESULT OF ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX AFT SUNRISE. VFR
CONDS THRU THE DAY MAY BE OCNLY INTERRUPTED BY MVFR SHWRS AS HTG
DVLPS CONV. TRWS SHD BE ISLTD ENUF TO NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. A RETURN TO VFR AND LGT WINDS AFT SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THROUGH SUN...AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. ALSO...EARLY EACH
AM...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CLDS/FOG ARE FORESEEN.
OTHWS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE DROPPED WARNNGS AT CONKLIN AND VESTAL AS THE LATEST FCSTS NOW
SHOWING LWRD QPF AND RVRS CREST BLO FLOOD. SHERBURNS CANCELLED AS
WEL WUITH THE RVR DROPPING BLO FLOOD STAGE. CONTD WARNING AT
WAVERLY AS THE RVR JUST TOUCHES FLOOD EARLY THU.
RAINFALL AMTS WERE MUCH LWR ON WED IN TURN LWRG CRESTS XPCTD AT
FCST POINTS. TODAY WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME WITH JUST SCT CONV CELLS
AND MUCH LWR PCPN INPUT TO RVRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/MSE/PAS
SHORT TERM...CMG LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DGM HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD, ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS EVENING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED
AT THE PRESENT TIME. AREA RADARS SHOWING VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
ACROSS UPSTATE NY/NE PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE CLOSEST
ORGANIZED SHWRS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GREATER
PHILADELPHIA REGION. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO TIED TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THIS HR AND
ALSO ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40-45KT LLJ SEEN ON VWP DATA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST RUC FCST BRINGS THIS AREA OF PRECIP
NORTH INTO THE NE PA AND WESTERN CATSKILL ZONES AFTER 09Z. AS A
RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN CHC SHWRS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
MORNING HRS...WITH SLGT CHC MENTION ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS MORNING...EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER LARGELY REMAINS DECOUPLED
FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
745 PM UPDATE... STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING FROM EFFICIENT RAINERS IN THIS VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.75 INCHES
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT /MBE/ VECTORS ARE VERY SHORT...SUGGESTING
TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING ABILITY FOR ANY CONTINUED CONVECTION. THE
ONE POSITIVE THOUGH IS THAT CONVECTION WITH INBOUND WAVE THAT WAS
COMING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...HAS DIMINISHED
GREATLY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND PREFERENCE FOR ADVECTING
CLOSER TO THE COAST TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
HOWEVER...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND HRRR DEPICT
THE SURFACE-CONVERGENCE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EAST TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
ALSO...CENTRAL PA CONVECTION ALSO SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS NEPA AND
PERHAPS TO THE CATSKILLS THIS EVENING. SO ONGOING FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT CURRENTLY RUNS TO 1 AM STILL LOOKS GOOD. PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA THAT HAVE HAD REPEATED HEAVY RAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS CAN
ONLY HANDLE AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN...WHICH REMAINING SHOWERS ARE
STILL CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF DOING IN A LOCALIZED SENSE.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE SPECIFICS ESPECIALLY FOR THE LARGER
STEM RIVER TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD BACK TO THE WEST KEEPING DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE WESTERN EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
MIGHT ALLOW POPS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST BY THURSDAY OR
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS SOME CAPPING MAY EXIST UNDER THE RIDGE.
OVERALL WILL BE CONTINUING WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE
DAY WITH LOW CHC POPS AT NIGHT IN THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGHEST POPS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE... BUT REALLY
A SHOWER OR STORM COULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. AND
WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE ANY STRONG STORM COULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S UPDATE AS RATHER
STAGNANT NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BROAD
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDWEST TROF
REMAINING. TRENDS SUGGEST A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WHICH MAY TAKE
THE SERIOUS RAIN AND FLOOD CONCERNS TO OUR WEST. HEIGHT FALLS FROM
THE POLAR JET MAY ALSO WORK ON FLATTENING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGH DWPT AIR AND WARM TEMPS. WITHOUT MUCH NOTED
IN THE MODELS TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN...THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO
FEATURE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TRENDS IN POPS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY WITH
SOME REPRIEVE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
DAYTIME...AND MID-UPR 60S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLY FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTS TODAY. SOME PTCHY IFR FOG THIS MRNG AS
A RESULT OF ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX AFT SUNRISE. VFR
CONDS THRU THE DAY MAY BE OCNLY INTERUPTED BY MVFR SHWRS AS HTG
DVLPS CONV. TRWS SHD BE ISLTD ENUF TO NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. A RETURN TO VFR AND LGT WINDS AFT SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THROUGH SUN...AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. ALSO...EARLY EACH
AM...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CLDS/FOG ARE FORESEEN.
OTHWS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
7 PM UPDATE...
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES AT CORTLAND...NORWICH...AND SHERBURNE.
MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE SUSQUEHANNA AT CONKLIN...VESTAL AND
WAVERLY/SAYRE. SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST.
THE RIVER TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY STEADY TO SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA MAIN STEM...CONKLIN ON DOWN...WHICH STILL NEEDS TO
PROCESS THE SURGE OF RUNOFF DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
RELATIVE TRANQUILITY OF THE FORECASTS IS IN PART DUE TO RAINFALL
FORECASTS OF ONLY AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT FORECASTS PROVIDED
TO THE HYDRAULIC MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING ENOUGH RAIN IN THE
BASINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS PLUME OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTH
OUT OF VIRGINA ARRIVES TONIGHT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS AREA OF
RAIN HOLDING TOGETHER...AND PRODUCING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL IS NOT GREAT EITHER...BUT THIS AIRMASS IS
VERY TROPICAL AND EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING BIG AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED EXTREMELY CLOSELY. AS ALWAYS...WILL
BE CONCERNED WITH CONVECTIVE LINES AND TRAINING CELLS OVER SMALL
SCALE BASINS THAT COULD TURN THE TIDE OF HEADWATER POINTS AND
FLASH FLOODING ON US RATHER QUICKLY. SHORT TERM RAINFALL FLASH
FLOOD RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...CMG/MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DGM
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
117 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD, ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS EVENING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED
AT THE PRESENT TIME. AREA RADARS SHOWING VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
ACROSS UPSTATE NY/NE PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE CLOSEST
ORGANIZED SHWRS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GREATER
PHILADELPHIA REGION. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO TIED TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THIS HR AND
ALSO ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40-45KT LLJ SEEN ON VWP DATA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST RUC FCST BRINGS THIS AREA OF PRECIP
NORTH INTO THE NE PA AND WESTERN CATSKILL ZONES AFTER 09Z. AS A
RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN CHC SHWRS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
MORNING HRS...WITH SLGT CHC MENTION ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS MORNING...EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER LARGELY REMAINS DECOUPLED
FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
745 PM UPDATE... STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING FROM EFFICIENT RAINERS IN THIS VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.75 INCHES
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT /MBE/ VECTORS ARE VERY SHORT...SUGGESTING
TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING ABILITY FOR ANY CONTINUED CONVECTION. THE
ONE POSITIVE THOUGH IS THAT CONVECTION WITH INBOUND WAVE THAT WAS
COMING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...HAS DIMINISHED
GREATLY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND PREFERENCE FOR ADVECTING
CLOSER TO THE COAST TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
HOWEVER...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND HRRR DEPICT
THE SURFACE-CONVERGENCE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EAST TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
ALSO...CENTRAL PA CONVECTION ALSO SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS NEPA AND
PERHAPS TO THE CATSKILLS THIS EVENING. SO ONGOING FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT CURRENTLY RUNS TO 1 AM STILL LOOKS GOOD. PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA THAT HAVE HAD REPEATED HEAVY RAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS CAN
ONLY HANDLE AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN...WHICH REMAINING SHOWERS ARE
STILL CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF DOING IN A LOCALIZED SENSE.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE SPECIFICS ESPECIALLY FOR THE LARGER
STEM RIVER TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD BACK TO THE WEST KEEPING DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE WESTERN EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
MIGHT ALLOW POPS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST BY THURSDAY OR
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS SOME CAPPING MAY EXIST UNDER THE RIDGE.
OVERALL WILL BE CONTINUING WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE
DAY WITH LOW CHC POPS AT NIGHT IN THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGHEST POPS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE... BUT REALLY
A SHOWER OR STORM COULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. AND
WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE ANY STRONG STORM COULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S UPDATE AS RATHER
STAGNANT NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BROAD
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDWEST TROF
REMAINING. TRENDS SUGGEST A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WHICH MAY TAKE
THE SERIOUS RAIN AND FLOOD CONCERNS TO OUR WEST. HEIGHT FALLS FROM
THE POLAR JET MAY ALSO WORK ON FLATTENING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGH DWPT AIR AND WARM TEMPS. WITHOUT MUCH NOTED
IN THE MODELS TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN...THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO
FEATURE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TRENDS IN POPS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY WITH
SOME REPRIEVE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
DAYTIME...AND MID-UPR 60S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING FALLING TO MVFR AND IFR LATE TONIGHT
THEN BACK TO VFR BY 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CONTINUE AND COULD
STILL PRODUCE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES THIS EVE.
FOR NOW...WE`VE KEPT RESTRICTIONS IN THE MVFR CAT...AND WE`LL
INSERT THUNDER ON AN AS NEEDED BASIS. THUNDER COVERAGE IS
DECREASING. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE ALL NIGHT BUT WITH SATURATED
LOW LEVELS AND WET GROUND CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP. SYR RME AND
AVP WILL FALL TO MVFR CIG AND VSBYS BETWEEN 6 AND 9Z. AT ELM ITH
BGM IT WILL BE EARLIER BETWEEN 5 AND 8Z THEN FALLING TO IFR CIG
AND VSBY 9 TO 13Z. ALL SITES BACK TO VFR BY AROUND 14Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS
AROUND 15Z THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN.
.OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THROUGH SUN...AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. ALSO...EARLY EACH
AM...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CLDS/FOG ARE FORESEEN.
OTHWS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
7 PM UPDATE...
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES AT CORTLAND...NORWICH...AND SHERBURNE.
MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE SUSQUEHANNA AT CONKLIN...VESTAL AND
WAVERLY/SAYRE. SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST.
THE RIVER TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY STEADY TO SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA MAIN STEM...CONKLIN ON DOWN...WHICH STILL NEEDS TO
PROCESS THE SURGE OF RUNOFF DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
RELATIVE TRANQUILITY OF THE FORECASTS IS IN PART DUE TO RAINFALL
FORECASTS OF ONLY AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT FORECASTS PROVIDED
TO THE HYDRAULIC MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING ENOUGH RAIN IN THE
BASINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS PLUME OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTH
OUT OF VIRGINA ARRIVES TONIGHT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS AREA OF
RAIN HOLDING TOGETHER...AND PRODUCING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL IS NOT GREAT EITHER...BUT THIS AIRMASS IS
VERY TROPICAL AND EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING BIG AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED EXTREMELY CLOSELY. AS ALWAYS...WILL
BE CONCERNED WITH CONVECTIVE LINES AND TRAINING CELLS OVER SMALL
SCALE BASINS THAT COULD TURN THE TIDE OF HEADWATER POINTS AND
FLASH FLOODING ON US RATHER QUICKLY. SHORT TERM RAINFALL FLASH
FLOOD RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...CMG/MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. TYPICAL MID SUMMERTIME
WEATHER OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SKIRTING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. REST OF AREA
MAINLY DRY. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED DATABASE AND FORECAST TO BETTER
TIME STORM MOVEMENT. NO OTHER CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BROAD UPPER PATTERN...WHICH CONSISTS OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H/5
LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER WESTLANT...CONTINUES ITS SLOW WESTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT DEEP AND VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT ALL LEVELS WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME BECOMING DRYER. P/W VALUES DROP FROM PRESENT 2 INCH RANGE TO
1.50-1.75 INCHES BY NOON AND AROUND 1.30 INCHES OVERNIGHT. AXIS OF
HEAVIEST POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT
IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GIVEN OUR SATURATED SOILS FEEL IT IS
PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS-IS DESPITE DECREASING
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL CONTINUE A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
EXTENDED BEYOND THE TODAY PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS. MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING WEST WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING WEST IN
TANDEM. THE DELIBERATE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE BUT POPS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PROLIFIC RECENT RAINS WILL ASSIST
IN KEEPING AT LEAST A MENTION AS WELL. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH READINGS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM HIGHER
AMPLITUDE TO A BASIC EAST/WEST ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
THE SURFACE FOR OUR AREA...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. POPS ARA ONLY IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS THE
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS DAMPEN VALUES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. I WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THERMAL PROFILES BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH
SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT CERTAINLY
THE OVERALL THEME OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAINS INTACT.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE
MOVING TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMS...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW SCT
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD
ONTO VCSH AT THE COASTAL SITES WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. AT KLBT AND KFLO...FOG/STRATUS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
WITH TEMPO IFR EXPECTED FROM 06-12Z. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL HELP TO DRY OUR CWA OUT...BEGINNING
WITH THE COASTAL SITES IN THE AFTN. SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE LIKELY
INLAND THRU THE MORNING AND AFTN AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS...AGAIN MOST LIKELY AT
KLBT/KFLO DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A VERY CONSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN
FOCUS. WAVEWATCH SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH 2-4
FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT ACCELERATION EACH EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TYPICAL OF
SUMMER...10-15 KNOTS WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE HIGHER END EACH
AFTERNOON. WAVEWATCH SEAS ARE TYPICAL WITH 2-4 FEET WITH MOSTLY
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-
033-039-053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
342 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. TYPICAL MID SUMMERTIME
WEATHER OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NOW IN EVIDENCE.
ANTICIPATE INCREASED COVERAGE AFTER DAYBREAK LATER THIS MORNING.
BROAD UPPER PATTERN...WHICH CONSISTS OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H/5
LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER WESTLANT...CONTINUES ITS SLOW WESTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT DEEP AND VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT ALL LEVELS WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME BECOMING DRYER. P/W VALUES DROP FROM PRESENT 2 INCH RANGE TO
1.50-1.75 INCHES BY NOON AND AROUND 1.30 INCHES OVERNIGHT. AXIS OF
HEAVIEST POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT
IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GIVEN OUR SATURATED SOILS FEEL IT IS
PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS-IS DESPITE DECREASING
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL CONTINUE A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
EXTENDED BEYONG THE TODAY PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS. MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING WEST WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING WEST IN
TANDEM. THE DELIBERATE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE BUT POPS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PROLIFIC RECENT RAINS WILL ASSIST
IN KEEPING AT LEAST A MENTION AS WELL. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH READINGS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM HIGHER
AMPLITUDE TO A BASIC EAST/WEST ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
THE SURFACE FOR OUR AREA...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. POPS ARA ONLY IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS THE
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS DAMPEN VALUES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. I WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THERMAL PROFILES BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH
SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT CERTAINLY
THE OVERALL THEME OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAINS INTACT.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE
MOVING TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMS...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW SCT
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD
ONTO VCSH AT THE COASTAL SITES WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. AT KLBT AND KFLO...FOG/STRATUS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
WITH TEMPO IFR EXPECTED FROM 06-12Z. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL HELP TO DRY OUR CWA OUT...BEGINNING
WITH THE COASTAL SITES IN THE AFTN. SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE LIKELY
INLAND THRU THE MORNING AND AFTN AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS...AGAIN MOST LIKELY AT
KLBT/KFLO DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE 15 KT RANGE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A VERY CONSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN
FOCUS. WAVEWATCH SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH 2-4
FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT ACCELERATION EACH EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TYPICAL OF
SUMMER...10-15 KNOTS WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE HIGHER END EACH
AFTERNOON. WAVEWATCH SEAS ARE TYPICAL WITH 2-4 FEET WITH MOSTLY
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
207 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND ALMOST
ALL OF THEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN FLOOD INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA...
RESULTING IN FEWER AND FEWER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DRY
FORECAST ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS SUNSHINE BECOMES MORE AND MORE PREVALENT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 2:00 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES. LATEST NAM AND SREF INDICATE THE SLUG OF ATLANTIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA FOR
1 MORE DAY. THIS MOISTURE FEED/LINE IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST NAM AND
SREF TO SLOWLY GET SHUNTED WESTWARD AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE WORST CONVECTION TO MAINLY OCCUR
WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST STORMS OF THESE LONG "STREAMERS". ROTATION
HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED BY THE KLTX 88D AS WELL AS NEIGHBORING RADARS.
HOWEVER...THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THESE ROTATING CELLS ARE NOT YOUR
NORMAL SIGNATURE FOR TORNADIC STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...THEY HAVE
PRODUCED DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURIES THAT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A
SURVEY BY THE NWS AND/OR LOCAL COUNTY EOCS TO DETERMINE IF IT WAS
TORNADIC.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AND OCCASIONALLY
PUSH ONSHORE AND INLAND. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE THE HEAVY RAINS WITHIN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE
CURRENT LOCATIONS IN EFFECT DURING THE NEXT UPDATE. SREF POP
DISTRIBUTION FOR MEASURABLE RAIN HAS BEEN HEAVILY LEANED ON FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE RATHER SOUPY TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA WILL RESULT IN
LOWS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AND ALSO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHTS MINS SEEMS LIKE THE WAY TO
GO...IE. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.....................
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...EVER SO GRADUALLY...DRIER AND WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH SYSTEM IS EDGING WESTWARD.
THIS CAN ESPECIALLY BE SEEN NOT ONLY IN WATER VAPOR ANIMATIONS BUT
ALSO SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS. MOSAIC RADAR
TRENDS HAVE HELD A SHARPLY DELINEATED LINE...WHERE GENERALLY OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF BRUNSWICK TO NEW HANOVER TO MOST OF PENDER
HAVE NOT RECEIVED A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL TODAY DUE TO IMPINGING
BERMUDA HIGH. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL LIKELY DROP THESE COUNTIES
FROM THE FLOOD WATCH BUT EXTEND THE REMAINING COUNTIES UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BASED ON THE ACTIVITY STILL APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH. IF RAINFALL TAPERS OFF MORE IN EARNEST THIS EVENING THEN
THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED SOONER THAN MIDNIGHT.
SEVERAL OF OUR RIVERS ARE IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH A FEW MORE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE RISES TO MINOR FLOODING. THESE CAN BE VIEWED AT
THE FOLLOWING URL...WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ILM.
ALSO A FEW ROAD CLOSURES ASSOCIATED WITH FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORENCE COUNTY. NIGHT-TIME COMMUTERS
SHOULD USE CAUTION ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA THIS EVENING.
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS WITH SUCH SATURATED GROUNDS AND
LOW-LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT RETROGRADES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WEST...REPLACED BY GRADUALLY DRIER AIR SEEN NICELY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IMPINGING ON THE CAPE
HATTERAS AREA AT THIS TIME.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP FROM
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES WED MORNING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY THU
MORNING. THE CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE WEST OF THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VERY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL PERSIST...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN IN RECENT
DAYS...1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 800
J/KG. EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR ARRIVING IN THE
MID-LEVELS WITH AN INVERTED V PROFILE DEVELOPING BELOW 1500 FT.
THUS...ANY DEEPER CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHUTTING DOWN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE ATLANTIC FEED WILL BE SLOWER TO
DIMINISH. WILL CARRY THE LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION...
CHANCE...WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THUS
CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN IF NOT COMPLETELY COME TO AN END DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL HAVE A MUCH STRONGER
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA BY THURSDAY. GIVEN NO DISCERNIBLE FEATURES
ALOFT TO ENHANCE LIFT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. THE SEABREEZE AND DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY
ACT TO LIFT AND FOCUS MOISTURE AND WITH STRONG HEATING...INSTABILITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THUS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE NO RAIN ON
THU. AGAIN EXPECT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THUS CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN AND END QUICKLY DURING THE EVE.
AS MORE AND MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS...TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE...
WARMER ON THU THAN ON WED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS SOME UPPER
80S ON WED SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF 90 DEGREES FOR MANY
AREAS ON THU. LOWS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOWER TO
MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL SHIFTING THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE CENTER BEING OVERHEAD
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING SHUNTED TO THE WEST AND THE MODELS
ARE DEPICTING THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROPPING FROM ABOVE 2 INCHES TO
AT OR BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF.
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON THE SURFACE BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT TO SEE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUDS DECREASING AND
AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND TO THE 91 TO 94 DEGREE RANGE INLAND BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE
MOVING TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMS...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW SCT
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD
ONTO VCSH AT THE COASTAL SITES WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. AT KLBT AND KFLO...FOG/STRATUS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
WITH TEMPO IFR EXPECTED FROM 06-12Z. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL HELP TO DRY OUR CWA OUT...BEGINNING
WITH THE COASTAL SITES IN THE AFTN. SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE LIKELY
INLAND THRU THE MORNING AND AFTN AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS...AGAIN MOST LIKELY AT
KLBT/KFLO DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 AM WEDNESDAY...HAVE DROPPED SCEC HEADLINES WITH LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE AS 10 TO 15 KT WINDS BOTH ONGOING AND FORECAST DO
NOT MEET ISSUANCE CRITERIA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES A SOLID 3 TO 5 FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...COMBINED WITH SE-S WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20
KT RANGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. PERIODS WILL RUN
5 TO 8 SECONDS...BORDERING ON SWELL CRITERIA. WITH THE CENTER OF
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH ALONG THE 33-35 DEGREE LATITUDE...A
LENGTHY E TO W FETCH WILL EXIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
BERMUDA HIGH. COMBINED WITH LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL HOLD SOLID IN A 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE
THRUOUT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.....................
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT REMAINS ACTIVE FOR
ALL WATERS FOR 5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT.
TSTMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE SC WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE NC WATERS. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL MOSTLY
BE SOUTH WAVES 3-5 FEET IN 6-8 SECONDS INTERVALS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE BERMUDA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
EXPAND ACROSS THE WATERS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SE WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM 3 TO 5 FT ON WED TO 3 TO 4 FT
ON THU. A WEAK 9 TO 10 SECOND SE SWELL WILL DEVELOP BY THU. THERE
IS ONLY THE SMALLEST RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SEE
THE WINDS BLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET ON FRIDAY
AND SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
AVIATION...BJR/REK
MARINE...REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO OHIO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MADE SEVERAL NEAR TERM CHANGES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
GRAPHICS REFLECT A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ZONES HAVE LESS RESOLUTION IN WORDING DEFAULTING TOWARD
THE HIGHER POP WORDING. FIREWORKS WILL BE HIT/MISS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA FROM CONVECTION NOW IN SERN OHIO. MOISTURE PLUME WITH PRECIP
NOW IN SWRN OHIO AND KY WILL ALSO BE FEEDING PRECIP INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. HRRR SHOWS POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL COUNTIES
FROM MFD THROUGH CLE AREA COULD BE RAIN FREE 9-10PM. WE`LL SEE.
PREVIOUS...GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED INTO
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THIS FLOW WILL BRING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. ONE CLUSTER ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER
JET DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED AND ALSO ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF NE OHIO
INTO NW PA. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN OHIO WE EXPECT TO SEE THE COVERAGE
OF THE RAINFALL INCREASE. AS IT DOES IT WILL CAUSE THE SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED ONE INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF
FLOODING AND RISE ALONG AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. SO WITH ALL THIS
SAID WE WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A
LINE FROM CLEVELAND TO MOUNT VERNON.
AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNRISE APPROACHES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP ALL THAT MUCH WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS. LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE MOST RAINFALL MAY DIP INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BRIEFLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THEY
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH AT
LEAST A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER ANY HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION IN THE CONVECTION.
ANY ADDITIONAL RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THE MORE
BREAKS THE HIGHER INTO THE 80S WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MOVE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH THE LOW. AFTER THAT THE FRONT STALLS
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO PRECISELY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL SO JUST
LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS HINT THAT
FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPERIENCING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS
BEFORE MORE RAIN ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING. TWO AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...ONE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO THAT CONTAINS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER
LARGER AREA SPREADING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN
OHIO. HAVE TRIED TO TIME SHOWERS AND INTO CAK/YNG/ERI THIS EVENING
AND MAY NEED TO UPDATE TO ADD TSRA ALTHOUGH EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES NORTH INTO THE MORE STABLE
AIR. THE OTHER AREA OF SHOWERS APPROACHING WESTERN OHIO WILL
EXPAND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TOO BRING IFR
CEILINGS TO FDY/MFD/CLE...POSSIBLY OTHER SITES TOO...WITH
MODERATE RAIN EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS BUT DID
NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE.
VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN 09-13Z AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES VERY MOIST. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS EARLY
MORNING FOG THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WITH THE THREAT OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AND WHETHER THEY WILL PROMPT THE NEED FOR
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. EVEN IF SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE NOT
ISSUED THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN STILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS. MARINERS WILL
HAVE TO BE ALERT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>011-
017>020-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
705 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO OHIO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MADE SEVERAL NEAR TERM CHANGES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
GRAPHICS REFLECT A BIT OF A BREAK EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ZONES HAVE LESS RESOLUTION IN WORDING DEFAULTING TOWARD
THE HIGHER POP WORDING. FIREWORKS WILL BE HIT/MISS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA FROM CONVECTION NOW IN SERN OHIO. MOISTURE PLUME WITH PRECIP
NOW IN SWRN OHIO AND KY WILL ALSO BE FEEDING PRECIP INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. HRRR SHOWS POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL COUNTIES
FROM MFD THROUGH CLE AREA COULD BE RAIN FREE 9-10PM. WE`LL SEE.
PREVIOUS...GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED INTO
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THIS FLOW WILL BRING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. ONE CLUSTER ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER
JET DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED AND ALSO ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF NE OHIO
INTO NW PA. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN OHIO WE EXPECT TO SEE THE COVERAGE
OF THE RAINFALL INCREASE. AS IT DOES IT WILL CAUSE THE SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED ONE INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF
FLOODING AND RISE ALONG AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. SO WITH ALL THIS
SAID WE WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A
LINE FROM CLEVELAND TO MOUNT VERNON.
AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNRISE APPROACHES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP ALL THAT MUCH WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS. LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE MOST RAINFALL MAY DIP INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BRIEFLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THEY
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH AT
LEAST A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER ANY HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION IN THE CONVECTION.
ANY ADDITIONAL RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THE MORE
BREAKS THE HIGHER INTO THE 80S WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MOVE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH THE LOW. AFTER THAT THE FRONT STALLS
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO PRECISELY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL SO JUST
LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS HINT THAT
FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS JUST MOVING INTO AREA FROM WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO. COULD BE A FEW TSRA BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF PRECIP TO
BE SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WOULD BE NE OH/NW PA WHERE CAPES
HOVERING AROUND 1000 J/KG. CONFIDENCE LOW SO KEPT TSRA OUT OF THE
TAFS.
HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER NW OH AS AREA UNDER THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS EARLY
MORNING FOG THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WITH THE THREAT OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AND WHETHER THEY WILL PROMPT THE NEED FOR
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. EVEN IF SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE NOT
ISSUED THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN STILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS. MARINERS WILL
HAVE TO BE ALERT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>011-
017>020-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1105 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...ANOTHER UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. THE OVERALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE RAIN...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS. THE 00Z FFC SOUNDING
SHOWS THE 45-50 KT LLJ...WHICH WAS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE RAP AND
NAM. THEY TAKE THE JET DUE NORTH INTO ERN TN. SO PERHAPS LESS
UPSLOPE AND HIGH ELEV WIND THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT
AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS THRU THE NIGHT...BUT PERHAPS A
LULL IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND WITH HEATING
ON FRIDAY.
AS OF 800 PM...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED BANDS OF MOD-HVY
RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE A FEW AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE ACRS THE I-77 CORRIDOR...STILL
FEEL OKAY WITH ALLOWING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE THERE.
ELSEWHERE...THE FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES...WITH NUMEROUS WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ATTM. THE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN
WORDING STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
AS OF 445 PM...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE TEMP/DEWPT AND SKY GRIDS TO
MATCH UP WITH OBS. POPS/WX LOOK ON TRACK...SO LEFT AS IS FOR NOW.
AS OF 300 PM...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN REGARDS TO THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ADJACENT TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXCEED 5 INCHES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. THIS FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WILL MAINLY EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINS AND THE
FOOTHILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND MIGRATION OF MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SC
UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. DUE TO INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...AND BACKED SURFACE
WINDS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONDITIONS WILL
NOT IMPROVE MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PLUME OF MOISTURE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.
THUS...EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
ZONES WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS BEING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST SITES.
FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME AS THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN...HOWEVER CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ON MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AT ALL LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE SLOWLY FILLING UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT NE
ACROSS IL/IN ON SAT AND THEN OH ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN
THE FORM OF WIND DIVERGENCE AND A TRAILING VORTICITY AXIS WILL CROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN...PERSISTENT MOIST SRLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WILL FOCUS LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS...AND
TAPER DOWN TO MID RANGE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR SAT AFTN.
COVERAGE MAY REBOUND THROUGHOUT THE REGION A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING UPPER SUPPORT. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...A FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SRN TIER OF
THE CONUS MON THROUGH WED. SFC HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE EXCEPT FOR A
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL DRYING IS
INDICATED...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
TO 850 MB FLOW WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY TO CURB PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND PRODUCE MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND IN POPS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW ON THU. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RECOVER TO
NEAR SUMMERTIME NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...ANOTHER BAND OF SHRA/TSRA IS APPROACHING THE TERMINAL FROM
THE SOUTH...AND SHUD CROSS THE AREA IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT BEHIND THAT BAND...CONVECTION SHUD
BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS WELL WEST OF KCLT. FROM
THERE...ISOLD SHRA MAY REMAIN IN THE AREA...BUT WILL REMOVE MENTION
AFTER 04Z. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT STRATUS SHUD DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR BY DAYBREAK EXPECTED. A LITTLE BIT
DRIER AIR MAY PUSH IN FROM THE EAST...BUT STILL EXPECT DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AGAIN FRIDAY AFTN. WILL MAKE PROB30 FOR
18-00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY S/SE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A GUST
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA AROUND 0030Z...THAT COULD BRIEFLY SHIFT
WINDS TO W/SW.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC
SITES. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL SITES FOR MVFR/IFR TSRA THIS
EVENING...THEN CARRIED MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH EITHER
VCTS...SHRA...OR BOTH. AS THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
FURTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...LOOKING FOR CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR
LEVELS AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND AROUND
8-10KTS. FRIDAY AFTN...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED...ESP IN THE NC MTNS. WILL MAKE PROB30 FOR TSRA
FOR 18-00Z.
OUTLOOK...VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS AND FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FROM THE EAST THIS WEEKEND AS A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA. MORNING FOG
WILL FAVOR THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 84% MED 60% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 82% HIGH 85% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 83% HIGH 93% HIGH 87% HIGH 91%
KHKY HIGH 84% MED 67% HIGH 90% HIGH 97%
KGMU MED 68% MED 67% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 84% HIGH 82% HIGH 81% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-
048>053-056-058-059-062>065-068>070-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS TODAY WITH PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE
CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT. WATCHING CONVECTION MOVE THRU NRN GA AND
NOW INTO THE WRN TIP OF THE CWFA. 850MB MOISTURE PLUME SEEMS TO BE
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY BUT STRENGTHENING 250MB JET
AND ASSOC UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THAT REGION AIDING IT AS WELL. WITH
DEEP SSW FLOW MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR
WEST BUT THE SAME FLOW WILL PROMOTE CONVECTION IN THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE SC
MIDLANDS NOW AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY.
11Z HRRR REFLECTS THIS LATTER BATCH OF STORMS AND THE MOVEMENT
SUGGESTED BY RADAR TRENDS...BUT SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS WHICH IS A BIT SURPRISING. RAP AND NEW NAM ARE MORE
BELIEVABLE AND MAINTAIN SHOWERS/STMS THERE. TEMPS/DEWPTS ARE ON
TRACK FROM LAST UPDATE.
AT 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST WEST WEST
OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE AN ATLANTIC
UPPER HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS WEST OVER THE EAST COAST. CHANNELED
VORTICITY BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. POPS WILL
BE GREATEST NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY...WHERE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER
TODAY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER AND LOW HEIGHTS
ALOFT.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES WEST...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE TRAIN
OF UPPER VORT MAXES MOVING NORTH BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATER RANGE
OF POPS BETWEEN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WARMING MID LEVELS
MAY CAP PROFILES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...EVEN AS CAPE
INCREASES AND SHEAR PERSISTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
NORMAL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
FAR WEST THE BEST FORCING FOR PCPN MOVES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT SHIFTS A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDANT SFC LOW THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE GOM THURSDAY AND ACROSS
MIDDLE TN THU NIGHT. H8 WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS ON THE GFS. THE CANADIAN HAS SIMILAR TIMING
THOUGH IT/S LOW IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. EVEN THE NAM IS LARGELY ON
BOARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IN
THE HEART OF THE STRONG LLVL JET. HOWEVER...THE FLOW EVEN INCREASES
TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW NC MTNS AS WELL AS
NE GA. CONSIDERING HOW MOIST THE AIRMASS IS...THIS CERTAINLY COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS. FARTHER TO THE EAST I
WOULDN/T EXPECT AS MUCH OF A RESPONSE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
PARTICULARLY THE PIEDMONT. SO I HAVE LOWER POPS TO THE EAST...VERY
MUCH IN LINE WITH THE POPS THAT THE DAY SHIFT HAD. WPC ALSO ORIENTS
THE HEAVIEST QPF WEST OF THE MTNS...THOUGH THEY STILL HAVE A SOLID
INCH OF PCPN OVER THE WRN ZONES 12 UTC THU TO 12 UTC FRI.
THERE ARE NOT ANY MODEL FEATURES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COMPARABLE
TO THE ONE THURSDAY...AT LEAST NOT RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY PCPN STAY WEST OF THE FA...AND IN FACT MAY
SHIFT FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
OF LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...I DON/T
SEE ANY CAPPING ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...EVEN OVER THE PIEDMONT. SO
EVEN AS THE BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST...THERE
SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES INCREASE. IN FACT...THE HIGH DOESN/T LOOK TO MAKE NEARLY THE
WESTWARD MOVE THAT WE WERE SEEING IN THE MODELS A COUPLE DAYS AGO. I
HOPE THIS DOESN/T MEAN THE WRN ZONES WILL BE UNDER A BAND OF BETTER
FORCING AND ATTENDANT HEAVY PCPN COVERAGE THAN WE CURRENTLY
THINK...BUT IT WELL MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PICKS UP AT 12Z SATURDAY
WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE CONUS...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH
WITH TROUGH OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND HIGH OVER ARIZONA...NEW
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FOR OUR AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW GRADUALLY
BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE SW DURING SUNDAY AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE ON THE GFS AT THE 925MB LEVEL THROUGH TUES. MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A ECLIPSE IN THE GFS DATA FROM 06Z MONDAY
TO 12Z TUESDAY...THE OBVIOUS SHIFT IS FROM THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO A
MORE ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW BY DAY 7 OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
OLD ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE BLOCKING PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GENERAL TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE FOR MUCH LOWER POPS
PEAKING AT HIGH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POP IN THE MAX HEATING TIME
FRAME OF THE AFTERNOON AND FAVORING THE MTNS FOR MON AND TUES.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND GREATER ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESSES...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASON NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...PATCHY IFR DECK SHOULD ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS SOLAR HEATING EATS AWAY AT NUMEROUS THIN AREAS IN CLOUD LAYER
SEEN ON SATELLITE. IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY RETURN TO MVFR THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF VSBY RESTRICTION...AND NONE WILL BE
CARRIED OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING
A MID LEVEL SYSTEM. A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING THRU SC IS LIKELY TO
AFFECT AT LEAST THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD 16-17Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT REMAINING POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTN. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SE AT UNDER 10 KNOTS.
ELSEWHERE...IFR BEGINNING TO LIFT ATTM AND CIGS SHOULD RISE TO LOW
VFR TODAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR TONIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING...INCLUDING AT
KAVL. WITH CONFIDENCE LIMITED DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST...GUIDANCE VSBY VALUES
HAVE BEEN RAISED SUBSTANTIALLY. OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ANY SITE THE
RECEIVES A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBY OR
WORSE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR
BOTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MORNING STRATUS AND FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...YIELDING MAINLY DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA. MORNING FOG WILL FAVOR THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT MED 78% LOW 58% HIGH 87% HIGH 92%
KGSP MED 77% LOW 59% HIGH 90% HIGH 94%
KAVL HIGH 84% LOW 53% MED 64% HIGH 98%
KHKY HIGH 82% LOW 52% MED 68% HIGH 93%
KGMU MED 76% MED 61% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 68% LOW 52% HIGH 80% HIGH 93%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
018-026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
958 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FIRST PERIOD POPS
AND ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
79
&&
.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
PUSHING WESTWARD AROUND 20KT INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
METROPLEX...WHILE A SECOND AND MORE SUBTLE BOUNDARY BETWEEN DALLAS
AND WACO IS LIFTING NORTH. THE TWO FEATURES WILL SERVE AS FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET...WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING
AS SURFACE HEATING WANES LATER THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
VCSH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT KDAL AND KDFW...POSSIBLY VCTS
DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS AT TAF ISSUANCE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY ONE TERMINAL BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS IS MINIMAL. THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN NOW AND 02Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5-10 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK FORCING FROM THE LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANT
OUTFLOWS OF DYING THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER
OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EAST STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THROUGH EVENING.
FARTHER WEST...A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE NOTED ON RADAR NEAR
COMANCHE. THE AIR IS MUCH DRIER HERE AT THE SURFACE SO THIS
ACTIVITY IS BASED MUCH HIGHER. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LCL/S
AROUND 12000FT WITH ABOUT 500J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
FOR THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 80S AFTER
DARK FOR FIREWORKS.
ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO
SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE
INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS A LARGE
RESERVOIR OF 2 INCH PLUS PWS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE
UPPER LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LOW. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND
THEREFORE HAS MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF MOVES THE GULF LOW INLAND VERY QUICKLY AND
KEEPS A STRONGER RIDGE. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION AS THESE TYPES OF UPPER LOWS ARE GENERALLY SLOWER
MOVING WHEN ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE POOLS OF RICH GULF MOISTURE.
GENERALLY LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST OR INLAND CAN OFTEN TIMES HELP RELOCATE THE CENTER OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW IN WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENTS. IF THIS HAPPENS...ITS
MOVEMENT WOULD APPEAR CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE
ECMWF. RAIN CHANCES LOOK BEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE STATE...BUT ANYTIME WE GET A WEAK UPPER LOW AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY. BEST CHANCES FOR NORTH TEXAS APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HUMIDITY
WILL GO UP WITH TIME MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW NEXT WEEK TO ASSESS ITS
IMPACTS ON TEMPS/RAIN CHANCES.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 96 73 96 74 / 10 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 70 97 71 98 73 / 10 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 66 92 67 93 71 / 10 10 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 69 93 70 94 72 / 10 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 67 94 70 95 72 / 10 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 75 97 76 97 77 / 10 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 69 95 71 96 73 / 10 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 71 96 73 97 73 / 10 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 68 97 70 97 73 / 10 5 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 69 96 71 96 72 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/79
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO NORTHERN MISSOURI
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. A WEAK
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
IS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO PENETRATE THE DRY AIR OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 70S. AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE STATE
TONIGHT...SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...PIECE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WEAK LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF FEATURES SHOULD BRING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BKN TO OVC DECK TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY SHOWERS EITHER CLOSER TO THIS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND HAVE LEFT AN ISOLATED MENTION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL REFLECTION WILL EXIT FAR
NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING. ANTICIPATE
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND SPOTTY SHOWERS UNTIL THESE FEATURES
DEPART. IN THE AFTERNOON...THE NAM DEVELOPS UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT ITS TOUGH TO
IDENTIFY A TRIGGER. CONDITIONS ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BECOME MORE
HOSTILE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SINCE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH AT THIS TIME. AS
RESULT...NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD STILL SEE A DECENT CU FIELD BUILD THAT WILL KEEP
SKIES IN THE PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE. HIGHS NEAR 80 AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE TROF AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OF WI BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WRESTLED WITH THE IDEA OF MENTIONING
AT LEAST ISOLD DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ON FRI/SAT...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG BUT NO OBVIOUS TRIGGER. OPTED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS DRY
FCST INTACT...BUT WILL NEED TO REVISIT THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.
AFTER THE WEAK TROF SHIFTS EAST...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NW WI ON SUNDAY...SAG SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN STALL OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
FRONT MAY SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS C/EC WI...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IN THESE DETAILS IS STILL QUITE LOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PCPN/
SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO ARRIVE TONIGHT. SHOULD
SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING.
SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TONIGHT THAT COULD LOCALLY
LOWER CIGS TO MVFR.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1149 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP DEPICTED A HIGH AMPLIFIED STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NOAM WITH A HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WERE
TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED.
A FEW TSTORMS THAT FORMED AROUND MIDDAY BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND
KIMBALL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS
FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
PREVAILING WINDS WERE VARIABLE 10 MPH OR LESS...OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 20 MPH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWLY RETROGRADES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER LOW/TROUGH SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM.
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NAM DOES SPREAD SOME CONVECTION AND LIGHT QPF INTO WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND ECWMF
KEEP THIS MOISTURE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL WYOMING. AT THIS TIME...WILL
OPT FOR A DRY FORECAST. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM
TODAY...RANGING FROM 11 TO 15C. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A TAD MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WINDS DURING THE
SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND WILL
PASS TO THE EAST FOR FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE TO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE WILL SPARK OFF MAINLY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW STORMS LOOKING TO SNEAK OFF
INTO THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AS EASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART AND MODELS SHOW THE ACTIVITY ENDING BY
EARLY EVENING. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CWA FOR FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE AS
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADVECTS IN MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. EASTERLY RETURN
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVER THE REGION. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST FOR SUNDAY...ALBEIT WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
ANALYZED FOR THIS DAY. THEREFORE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER TSTORMS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. ANOTHER BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
ENERGY AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MARGINALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE UPPER HIGH SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
WILL SHIFT WINDS ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL DRAW MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE DISTRICTS...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...MAZUR
AVIATION...WEILAND
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
325 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
THE 05.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER AIR FLOW
PATTERN AS COMPARED TO THE 04.00Z RAOBS. BASICALLY, ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUED
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. MAGNITUDES WERE 70 KT (@72768) ON THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM WAS AROUND 115 KT
(@72645). @ 500 HPA, THE CENTER OF A 592 DM ANTICYCLONE WAS NEAR 72388.
FAIRLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -5 DEG C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
SAID PRESSURE PERTURBATION. DOWNSTREAM, A BROAD TROF EXTENDED ROUGHLY
FROM 72440 TO 72645. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE -13 TO -14 DEG C RANGE.
AT 700 HPA, 2 DEGREES C OF WARMING WERE NOTED AT 72451 IN COMPARING
04.00Z AND 05.00Z RAOBS. SAME ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF WARMING WAS NOTED
AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME UPPER AIR SITE. AT THE SFC, A LEE SURFACE TROF
WAS ANALYZED ACROSS SE COLORADO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWARD TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.0W @ 05.03Z AND TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N 100.0W @ 05.03Z
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THIS MORNING:
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING IS RATHER UNCOMPLICATED AND STRAIGHT FORWARD.
THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 05.00Z NAM
SHOWS SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION, KDDC WSR- 88D VAD PROFILE
SHOWS A STRENGTHENING 850 HPA LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH 05Z. FEEL THAT THE
HRRR IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF. THE NAM IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING CLOSER THE TROF MENTIONED IN THE
SYNOPSIS. AS A RESULT, WILL KEEP PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGE
POINTS AT OR BELOW 14 PERCENT DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF-ARW DO NOT SHOW ANYTHING EXCITING
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TODAY:
NEAR NEUTRAL 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
AT THE SFC, A LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE
NET RESULT IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAYS SENSIBLE WEATHER
FOR TODAY... ERGO A FEW CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHER THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND IN THE MID 90S AS THE
850 HPA WARM PLUME ADVECTS FARTHER EAST. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
WARM TO HOT AND BREEZY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TODAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WHICH IS THE
MOST IDEAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT:
BY DUSK, WINDS SHOULD ABATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF MAGNITUDES 10-18 MPH IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL 05.00Z NAM RUN SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. THE NESTED 05.00Z 4 KM NAM KEEPS CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECTED CONVERGENCE
FARTHER WEST, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE POINTS
AT OR BELOW 14 PERCENT. EVEN TAKING THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE NAM AT
FACE VALUE, AN INSPECTION OF FORECAST SKEW T/LOG-P`S SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S DEG F.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
A RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
KANSAS REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THE 500MB HIGH
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO
BORDER REGION WITH A WEAK JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME FAIRLY FLAT GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO INTO OKLAHOMA AS ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
SUSTAINED LEE TROUGH FEATURE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE ZONAL
JET STREAM. NONE OF THESE FRONTAL SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHERN KANSAS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM IN THE
LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY ALONG THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AXIS (AND MORE LIKELY OVER
TERRAIN-FAVORED REGIONS OF COLORADO)...BUT THE OVERALL WEAK
MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PREVENT AN EASTWARD PUSH OF
CONVECTION FAR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE CONFINED ONLY TO FAR WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
A COLD FRONT PUSH LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGER PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL (AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
DAKOTAS ADJACENT CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION). SHOULD THE
FRONT PENETRATE KANSAS MID-WEEK...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INSTEAD OF THE LOW 100S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU TAF PD. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 05.00Z NAM
SHOWS OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION WEST OF KGCK THIS EVENING. THE NESTED 4
KM NAM KEEPS CONVECTION ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SECOND SOLUTION LOOKS
MORE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME, GIVEN NEAR NEUTRAL 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT TENDENCIES. WILL INTRODUCE A MID DECK FOR KGCK NOW AND KEEP KDDC/KHYS
CAVU. WIND VECTORS SOUTHERLY WITH 10-20 KT MAGNITUDES, STRONGEST 15Z-
23Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 96 68 100 73 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 97 69 100 72 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 97 68 98 72 / 10 10 20 20
LBL 97 66 100 72 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 97 69 100 74 / 10 10 10 10
P28 95 69 100 74 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HOVORKA_42
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. SURFACE TROUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER
JET ARE CAUSING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON
THIS. AS HEATING OF THE DAY GOES AWAY AND THE BEST LIFT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AND BE DONE BY 04Z. THERE
IS A LOT OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE CONVECTION/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SO INCREASED THE SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL AND SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIM
CHANCE THAT THEY MIGHT REACH FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SEE RH VALUES
DROP TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE
AREAS WILL SEE THE LEAST WIND AT AROUND 15KTS...RESULTING IN
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
GIVEN DRY FUELS IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AT 500 MB FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL HAVE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKEN AND RETURN TO A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTIVITY EACH
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL HELP WITH DESTABILIZATION AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE CENTER AXIS BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN MAIN FLOW. JET
STREAM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.
STRONG LOWER LEVEL NOCTURNAL JETS FOR THE AREA WILL DEVELOP IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH COULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION THAT STARTS
IN THE EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL HELP
PROVIDE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE TRI
STATE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH
STRONG FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ABSENT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR EVERY TIME PERIOD AND MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AREA WOULD BE TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM WITH VALUES OF 85 TO
88...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
REACHING THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY SLIGHTLY
COOL TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. OTHER THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA NEXT
WEEK...SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY ONCE THE MIXING BEGINS. THE GUSTINESS OF THE WINDS WILL END
DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
THE 05.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER AIR FLOW
PATTERN AS COMPARED TO THE 04.00Z RAOBS. BASICALLY, ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUED
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. MAGNITUDES WERE 70 KT (@72768) ON THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM WAS AROUND 115 KT
(@72645). @ 500 HPA, THE CENTER OF A 592 DM ANTICYCLONE WAS NEAR 72388.
FAIRLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -5 DEG C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
SAID PRESSURE PERTURBATION. DOWNSTREAM, A BROAD TROF EXTENDED ROUGHLY
FROM 72440 TO 72645. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE -13 TO -14 DEG C RANGE.
AT 700 HPA, 2 DEGREES C OF WARMING WERE NOTED AT 72451 IN COMPARING
04.00Z AND 05.00Z RAOBS. SAME ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF WARMING WAS NOTED
AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME UPPER AIR SITE. AT THE SFC, A LEE SURFACE TROF
WAS ANALYZED ACROSS SE COLORADO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWARD TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.0W @ 05.03Z AND TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N 100.0W @ 05.03Z
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THIS MORNING:
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING IS RATHER UNCOMPLICATED AND STRAIGHT FORWARD.
THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 05.00Z NAM
SHOWS SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION, KDDC WSR- 88D VAD PROFILE
SHOWS A STRENGTHENING 850 HPA LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH 05Z. FEEL THAT THE
HRRR IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF. THE NAM IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING CLOSER THE TROF MENTIONED IN THE
SYNOPSIS. AS A RESULT, WILL KEEP PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGE
POINTS AT OR BELOW 14 PERCENT DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF-ARW DO NOT SHOW ANYTHING EXCITING
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TODAY:
NEAR NEUTRAL 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
AT THE SFC, A LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE
NET RESULT IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAYS SENSIBLE WEATHER
FOR TODAY... ERGO A FEW CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHER THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND IN THE MID 90S AS THE
850 HPA WARM PLUME ADVECTS FARTHER EAST. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
WARM TO HOT AND BREEZY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TODAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WHICH IS THE
MOST IDEAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT:
BY DUSK, WINDS SHOULD ABATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF MAGNITUDES 10-18 MPH IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL 05.00Z NAM RUN SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. THE NESTED 05.00Z 4 KM NAM KEEPS CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECTED CONVERGENCE
FARTHER WEST, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE POINTS
AT OR BELOW 14 PERCENT. EVEN TAKING THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE NAM AT
FACE VALUE, AN INSPECTION OF FORECAST SKEW T/LOG-P`S SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S DEG F.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TREK EASTWARD AND
ELONGATE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL START OUT IN
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THEN INTO THE PLAINS
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE
FORECASTED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING WEAK
DISTURBANCES FARTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. SURFACE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED EAST OF THE AREA AND
TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW AREAS
REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU TAF PD. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 05.00Z NAM
SHOWS OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION WEST OF KGCK THIS EVENING. THE NESTED 4
KM NAM KEEPS CONVECTION ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SECOND SOLUTION LOOKS
MORE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME, GIVEN NEAR NEUTRAL 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT TENDENCIES. WILL INTRODUCE A MID DECK FOR KGCK NOW AND KEEP KDDC/KHYS
CAVU. WIND VECTORS SOUTHERLY WITH 10-20 KT MAGNITUDES, STRONGEST 15Z-
23Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWNWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 98 73 99 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 69 98 72 98 / 10 10 10 20
EHA 68 96 72 96 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 66 98 72 99 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 69 98 74 99 / 10 10 10 20
P28 69 97 74 100 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HOVORKA_42
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1129 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. SURFACE TROUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER
JET ARE CAUSING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON
THIS. AS HEATING OF THE DAY GOES AWAY AND THE BEST LIFT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AND BE DONE BY 04Z. THERE
IS A LOT OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE CONVECTION/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SO INCREASED THE SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL AND SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A VERY SLIM
CHANCE THAT THEY MIGHT REACH FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SEE RH VALUES
DROP TO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE
AREAS WILL SEE THE LEAST WIND AT AROUND 15KTS...RESULTING IN
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
GIVEN DRY FUELS IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH FORECAST PERIOD.
H5 RIDGE STILL EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY WITH WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED MEAN FLOW
SLIGHTLY NORTH...WHICH COULD ALLOW RIDGE TO HOLD MORE INFLUENCE
OVER OUR CWA...AND DECREASE CHANCES. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORT MAXES PASSING
OVER CWA AND PRODUCING QPF EVERY PERIOD. MIXING HEIGHTS AND DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER IN PLACE WOULD SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A FAIRLY
STRONG DRYLINE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER...HOWEVER MODEL 2M TD VALUES
ARE STILL MUCH HIGHER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT WITH SUPPORT FROM LLJ AND H85-H5 ISENTROPIC FORCING...SO
I CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ANY PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND STALL ACROSS SW NEBRASKA MON/TUE AND COULD
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING INITIATION EACH PERIOD I
DIDNT WANT TO INCREASE POPS OUTSIDE OF CHANCE CATEGORY.
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SAT/SUN WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY
APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY WITH TEMPS MON
DUE TO FRONTAL POSITION DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WE SHOULD STILL SEE
TEMPS APPROACH THE MID 90S. AT THIS POINT WE PROBABLY WONT SEE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90F UNTIL WED/THU WHEN GUIDANCE
SHOWS STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HEIGHTS
FALLING OVER OUR CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY ONCE THE MIXING BEGINS. THE GUSTINESS OF THE WINDS WILL END
DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO INIT
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
308 AM EDT FRI JUL 05 2013
.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Not much change in the atmosphere during the short term, with the
region continuing to be squeezed between an upper trof to the west
and an upper ridge to the east. An impressive plume of deep
moisture will continue to stream from the Gulf of Mexico to the
Saint Lawrence Valley. As a result, widespread clouds and
occasional showers will dominate the short term forecast.
There really isn`t much model or WPC QPF support for flooding rains
today. Showers continue over the eastern third of the CWA early
this morning, as well depicted by the HRRR, with nothing much
upstream. The HRRR shows the current batch of showers exiting the
region early this morning followed by a lull in the action mid-late
morning. Cross-sections suggest we could see a few breaks in the
clouds this afternoon and some regeneration of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Despite the lack of solid model support for heavy
rain today, the fact remains that we still have an extremely juicy
atmosphere and a good set up for training. Any showers/storms that
do develop today will be capable of locally heavy downpours and
places that get hit repeatedly will certainly suffer some water
problems. So, after coordinating with neighboring offices, will go
ahead and keep most of the Flash Flood Watch. Will, however, shave
off the westernmost edge of the watch where rainfall amounts
yesterday were fairly moderate and FFG numbers are higher.
Tonight a coherent vort max is progged to move from south to north
across the area, resulting in widespread showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms, especially after midnight. As of right now, this
activity actually looks slightly more promising for heavy rains than
what we see today, though the main axis should be just slightly west
of where the most rain has fallen over the past 24 hours.
After another lull Saturday morning, additional development is
expected in the afternoon with some destabilization plus the
possibility of another wave moving through. Once again locally
heavy downpours will be possible.
Our high temperatures on the Fourth of July were more typical of
late April. With maybe a little less rain and a bit of partial
sunshine possible this afternoon will go a few degrees warmer than
yesterday for highs today but will still stay well below normal with
highs in the middle and upper 70s. The far west may touch 80. Lows
tonight will be in the middle and upper 60s, with highs on Saturday
not much different from what we see today.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Unsettled and frequently cloudy weather is expected for the latter
portion of the weekend. For the last several days, a massive Bermuda
high of near 600dm off the Virginia coast has blocked a sharp trough
aligned over the Lower Missouri Valley from moving east. This pattern
will finally break down early next week as zonal flow becomes
established over the northern tier of the country.
However, for Saturday night and for much of Sunday, this practically
cut-off 500mb low will still lie west of Louisville, only slowly
crossing southern Indiana by late Sunday. Through Sunday
afternoon, the Lower Ohio Valley will still lie under a plume of
tropical moisture extending north from the Gulf of Mexico. Expect
cloudy skies Saturday night through early Sunday with occasional
showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. Instability will stay
marginal for thunderstorms, but with PWATs just under 2 inches and
some lift associated with a jet overhead, some of these showers
could produce localized heavy rain. Rain chances may actually
diminish a bit towards Sunday evening as veering winds bring drier
air in from the west late in the day. Seasonably cool temperatures
in the lower 80s are expected Sunday afternoon, even with some
potential partial clearing late.
Summer returns Monday and Tuesday. Southwesterly flow will become
established as the aforementioned 500mb low weakens and scoots
across New England. By late Monday, the polar jet will have
retreated to north of the Great Lakes and weak flow aloft will
develop over the region as broad 500mb ridging spreads eastwards
from the southern Plains. Expect a warm humid regime Monday through
Wednesday. Our recent rains will augment already humid air, so each
overnight period will feel muggy. Afternoon high temperatures will
possibly approach 90 for this period.
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible each day, with
coverage likely the least on Monday. PWATs increase again Tuesday
and Wednesday to over 1.75 inches. This may allow individual
thunderstorms to produce localized heavy rains.
A shortwave across the upper Midwest late Wednesday will begin to
dig, eventually carving a trough over western New England by next
Friday. A cold front will approach southern Indiana early Thursday.
Gulf moisture pooling ahead of this boundary will aid in developing
possibly widespread convection late Wednesday into Thursday with the
possibility of localized heavy rainfall. Currently, our forecast has
high chances for Wednesday afternoon and overnight. However, we may
bring in likely chances in later forecasts once the front`s timing
becomes better known.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
The deep moisture plume coming from the Gulf of Mexico will continue
through today and tonight, leading to a very moist atmosphere and a
low confidence TAF package.
Low ceilings are the primary concern this morning. Model data are
fairly insistent bringing in ceilings around the MVFR/IFR border,
and indeed some transient ceilings a few hundred feet either side of
1000` have already developed from western Kentucky to middle
Tennessee. So, will go ahead and continue with low cigs in the
forecast from the pre-dawn hours through mid morning. Will then
gradually allow those ceilings to lift, reaching low VFR this
afternoon.
Showers will be possible just about any time through the TAF
period. LEX will stand the best chance of the most consistent
rain. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well, primarily this
afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ079-092.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ027>043-045>049-
053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
$$
Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS NOW NEARLY CUTOFF
FROM THE MAIN WEST-EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
WILL SHEAR OUT AND SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...AREA IS UNDER A RIDGE FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LED TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW YESTERDAY AND
IT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO A
STATIONARY TROUGH SETUP IN WESTERN ONTARIO TO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL THE DRY AIR SEEN ON
THE 00Z KMPX SOUNDING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND WILL LEAD TO A NICE
AND WARM SUMMER DAY. MIXING TO 850MB TEMPS OF 17C OVER THE WESTERN
CWA AND 15C OVER THE EAST WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
OVER THE WEST AND THE MID 80S OVER THE EAST. THE COOLEST VALUES WILL
BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE VALUES
IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE WEST AND THE TRADITIONAL
WARM RAWS SITES. THESE VALUES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SEEN UPSTREAM IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA YESTERDAY.
NAM/HRRR/RAP SHOWING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EAST. THE HRRR AND ONE OF OUR LOCAL RAP
INITIALIZED WRF-ARW RUNS EVEN DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MID
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN BREEZE BOUNDARY. WITH ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ABOVE THAT CU...WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. OTHERWISE...WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL AID MIXING INTO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ALSO
MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS. HIGHEST CORE OF WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHERE GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. AS
FOR DEWPOINTS...ML VALUES FROM THE MODELS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA (MATCHES VALUES SEEN UPSTREAM YESTERDAY). THIS
PRODUCES MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE WEST AND
UPPER 30S OVER THE EAST. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 5-6 DAYS...SUPPORTS
ISSUING A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT OVER THE WEST HALF EVEN
THOUGH THEY HAVE HAD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30
DAYS. SINCE COORDINATION WAS PERFORMED YESTERDAY WITH THE DNR...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE IT THIS MORNING.
AS FOR CONDITIONS UPSTREAM THAT WILL INFLUENCE TONIGHT/S
FORECAST...THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH LIMITED WESTWARD PUSH TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH TODAY AND STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL THE EVENING
AND MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE GIVES IT A PUSH TO
THE EAST. A COUPLE MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT IN NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD MOVE NE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES WEST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING (LARGELY BROAD AND WEAK OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH THE BEST IN ONTARIO) AND JUST THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LOW TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCES POPS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES REACHING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE DIMINISHING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXITING NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT MID CLOUDS TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE
WEST HALF BY DAYBREAK AND THE EAST WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP DURING THE NIGHT...THINK LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE LOW 60S EAST AND MID-UPPER 60S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SATURDAY...A MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY TOWARD IN/OH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN
ONTARIO WILL PUSH A FRONT TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL
RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1K J/KG OVER THE CNTRL AND WEST.
SINCE THE FORCING WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
THE AREA IN THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...ONLY LOWER END POPS WERE
INCLUDED OVER THE NW HALF.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE ZONAL PATTERN CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE THE SHRTWV IS LOW. PWAT VALUES TO AROUND
1.75 INCH WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LCLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE MAIN
HAZARD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CWA. IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER DEVELOP...AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AROUND 1K J/KG
SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH THE FRONT AND LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
WEAK/MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONGER/SVR STORMS.
MON...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDAY S EXPECTED TO SAG TO
THE SOUTH OF UPPER MI...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WEAK SHRTWVS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THAT COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PCPN KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
TUE-THU...THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY WED.
QVECTOR CONV AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY FROM TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. A RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED BY THU WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP TODAY RESULTING GUSTY SSW WINDS DEVELOPING. GUSTS
SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 22 KTS UNTIL DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES IS THE HARBINGER OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KCMX AND KIWD...MAINLY AFTER
03Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR S-SW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALMOST DOWN TO THE WATER. ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGER WINDS SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
HIGHER PLATFORMS. DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AT BAY
TODAY...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
LAKE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS LOW AND KEEP
WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1136 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT - SUNDAY)
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF A LINE FROM TABLE
ROCK TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS. RAP MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THIS INSTABILITY
AND AN INVERTED V STRUCTURE TO THE LOWER TROP...COULD CREATE A
LIMITED RISK FOR SOME WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
-20 LEVELS BEING SO LOW...WE THERE COULD BE A LIMITED HAIL RISK
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ANYONE PARTICIPATING IN FOURTH
OF JULY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR LIGHTNING
STRIKES UNDER THESE UPDRAFTS.
MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
A LOWER FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE BROAD OVERALL TROUGH AXIS WILL
STILL BE ACROSS THE OZARKS. SO CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO FOR
FRIDAY...AND EVEN LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
LOOK FOR THE WARMING TREND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY
SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY - THURSDAY)
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CONFINE THE SUMMERTIME HIGH CENTER OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE OZARKS WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND...AND KEEPING THE REGION
ALIVE FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS IS A FAIRLY DECENT PATTERN FOR AFTERNOON PULSE
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEXES ARE
ALIVE AS WELL UNDER THIS REGIME.
THE BEST SIGNAL FOR A POSSIBLE MCS WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT TRYING TO FORECAST SOMETHING LIKE THIS 6
DAYS OUT IS PRETTY CHALLENGING.
HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND STAY SAFE.
CRAMER
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
CONVECTION HAS ENDED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. HAVE
KEPT THINGS VFR FOR NOW.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
315 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP SOUTHERLY WINDS AS A WARM
FRONT RETREATS ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE ONGOING
SHOWERS...RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN NEB...ERN WY
AND SWRN SD WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST TODAY AFFECTING NRN
NEB ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 FOR THE MOST PART. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES
COULD RISE INTO THE MID 90S WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 80S...PERHAPS COOLER DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF THE
RAIN WHICH MOST MODELS SHOW DECAYING IN THE STABLE NERN QUADRANT
OF THE H500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH THE STRONG HEATING. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED
AS DEW POINTS AT THE SFC REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP GIVEN THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. STILL ELEVATED STORMS MIGHT PRODUCE
STRONG OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE BIG NEWS IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING AROUND 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES LATELY...BUT WILL INCREASE TO
OVER 1.25 INCHES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IS 1.08 INCHES...SO THIS WEEKENDS PWATS WILL BE IN
THE 75TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY...WITH A MORE
ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW EXPECTED.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. CAPE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG IN
THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR RUNNING MAINLY AROUND
30 KTS WITH THE NW APPROACHING 40 KTS. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...THE FRONT MAKES SOME PROGRESS SOUTH...FOCUSING THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS
INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WYOMING AND INTO NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. CAPES
WILL GENERALLY RUN 1500-2500 J/KG...WITH THE BEST DEEP SHEAR IN THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 40 KTS YIELDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NORTH TO
NEAR 100 SOUTH ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT TO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 90S ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTH.
NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS EARLY
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PWATS STAY RATHER HIGH THROUGH MID WEEK...
HELPING KEEP THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
STREAM INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM WYOMING. CLOUD
COVER WILL DIMINISH AS YOU HEAD FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. FOR FRIDAY...LOOK FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 12000 TO 20000 FT AGL AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED
AT BEST FOR THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS...SO WILL FORGO MENTION IN
THE 06Z TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH FUEL STATUS IS NEGATIVE FOR FIRE GROWTH...ONE WILD FIRE
DEVELOPED NEAR ROSCOE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTING FUELS MAY BE
FAVORABLE IN SOME AREAS. THE AREA CONCERN FOR WILD FIRES IS WHERE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND THIS WOULD BE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT FCST
TO BE ALONG OR NEAR HIGHWAY 20. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSPATING BY EARLY MORNING. WEAK
WAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH NM
FRIDAY...LIKELY GETTING CONVECTION GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM
LATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SCT -TSRA MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SW BREEZES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY
MORNING AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS OVER ERN CO.
33
.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013...
STORMS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO START TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. LAPS
ANALYSIS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A NOSE OF A JET MOVING MOVING INTO THE
STATE...THOUGH SOME MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY AS YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABOVE
REASONS...THOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE A STORM OR TWO THAT PRODUCES
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WEST...NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF ACTIVITY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE HRRR ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NM AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL HAPPEN. FOCUSED POPS
MAINLY ACROSS WC/SW AREAS...THOUGH CONTINUED SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WHERE STORMS ARE JUST INCREASING IN
COVERAGE.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL INCH EASTWARD FRIDAY...CENTERING OVER EASTERN
AZ. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS THAT
DESPITE SOME WEAK W/NW FLOW BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS NW
NM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABUNDANT. OTHER MODELS ARE
NOT AS BULLISH ON QPF...THOUGH SEEMINGLY...THE NAM HAS BEEN
PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS OF LATE REGARDING
CONVECTION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE PERHAPS
ROUNDING THE HIGH. THUS...KNOCKED POPS UP A BIT MORE FOR
FRIDAY...AND SPREAD THEM EASTWARD A BIT AS WELL. STEERING FLOW
SHOULD TAKE STORMS A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...THOUGH OVERALL
IT WILL BE LIGHTER.
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE SQUARE OVER NM. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO KEEP THE AREA CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE WEAK...THROUGH STORMS MAY NOT BE AS POTENT GIVEN THE
UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD. ON SUNDAY...THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF SHIFT
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH EASTWARD OVER OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING FOR WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A MORE TRADITIONAL PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL NM. MEANWHILE...THE NAM AND THE GFS KEEP THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH OVER NM...LIMITING ANY NORTHWARD MOVING MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS...SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE...THOUGH WILL BE MORESO IF THE
HIGH CAN SHIFT EAST.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL WOBBLE AROUND
SOME...AND MODELS STILL ARE AT ODDS WITH WHERE IT WILL END UP. AN
EASTERLY WAVE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO...AND
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MAY HELP SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY A SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY...AS THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST HAS BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED
AND THE CENTER HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTH...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN ARIZONA. UPPER LOW STILL OVER MISSOURI. GRADIENT ACROSS
NEW MEXICO HAS RELAXED A BIT BUT STILL A 60 KNOT UPPER JET OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND A LITTLE SLOWER TO FIRE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. STILL EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STEERING FLOW IS STILL NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH MAGNITUDES JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS TO BE FAVORED WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
EAST.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND WITH LITTLE SCOURING OF MOISTURE DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THE STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM DAY TO DAY.
BY LATE FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME WESTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER MISSOURI...THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BE WEAKER YET...WITH A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS SHIFT...ALONG WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH SIMILAR
DISTRIBUTIONS TO TODAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY... THE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
RECYCLING IN PLACE. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SLOWER MOVING WETTING RAIN...WITH THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS SEEING THE LEAST ACTION.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST WHILE
ELONGATING IT TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES. DRIER AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A HIGH HAINES OF 6
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
WETTING RAIN WITH SMALL FOOTPRINTS.
RH RECOVERIES TO BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FAIR VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
HIGHLANDS. VENTILATION TO BE MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR VALUES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
342 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THIS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT
THERE WILL BE FREQUENT RAINFREE PERIODS AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE ADDITIONAL LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY A PASSING
SHORT WAVE.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A BETTER ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE.
THIS PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE THAT IS
CENTERED OVER OHIO. EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT
WAVE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE IMPACT THAT THIS
IMPULSE WILL HAVE ON OUR CWA DEPENDS OF THE PATH THAT IT ULTIMATELY
TAKES...AND THIS IS WHERE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS CAN MAKE
A BIG DIFFERENCE. THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE MAINLY
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE GFS AND RAP TRACK IT FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH...PUSHING IT RIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. USING THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS LINES AS AN
ADDITIONAL GUIDE FAVORS THE MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE GFS AND RAP.
FOLLOWING THE MORE SOUTHWARD TREND...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THAT IS IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS WILL NOT BE
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT...BUT WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR
THEY MAY BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A RELATIVELY SHORT
TIME...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE THE LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE
PUSHES EAST OF OUR CWA. A JET STREAK THAT WILL BE PASSING JUST NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WHILE THE WARMER SPOTS ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID
LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES KEEPING A FEED OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO FLOWING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES WILL PROPAGATE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SUPPORT
ENHANCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THIS
WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH IN GENERAL WILL
SUPPORT BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH LESSER COVERAGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON SATURDAY MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE OR
TWO VERY WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MAY CROSS THE LOWER LAKES DURING
THE DAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL DOMINATE FORCING FOR
ANY CONVECTION. BOTH NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE
FIELDS SUGGEST THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THESE SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WILL
BE NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AS MORE STABLE LAKE
INFLUENCED AIR SPREADS INLAND.
SATURDAY EVENING MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ONE OR TWO WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL AGAIN CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE.
BY SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO
OPEN UP AND RE-ENGAGE WITH THE WESTERLIES. THIS WILL SPREAD HEIGHT
FALLS AND DPVA INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NY WITH SOME HELP FROM THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. SUNDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE HEADWAY EAST AND APPROACH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
NIGHT DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
PWAT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AT TIMES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
ASSOCIATED ISOLATED FLOOD RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING OCCURS ALONG ANY OF THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES.
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IN SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THE LONG TERM AS THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EVOLVES. A ZONAL
PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WHICH IN TIME
WILL FORCE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALSO WEAKEN A LITTLE AND MOVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE...ENDING THE SOUTHERLY PUMP OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THE OLD
MIDWEST CUTOFF LOW WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY TUESDAY A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND PROVIDE A MUCH NEEDED MAINLY DRY DAY.
BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL IMPROVE BY
THURSDAY WITH A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...SOME PROMISE IS SEEN FOR A MORE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYING LATER NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE GETS FORCED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A TROUGH
DIGS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WOULD PUT OUR REGION ON THE DRIER AND
LESS HUMID SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH LOWER RH DAYS GIVING SOILS A
CHANCE TO DRY OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE MAINLY VFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL...NEARLY SATURATED AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL
RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OHIO. THIS PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST AND IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN TAF SITES LATER THIS
MORNING. AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT ANY PASSING STORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOWER
VSBYS TO IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP
WIND AND WAVES WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
PASSING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THIS WEEKEND...BUT SCA CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
323 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WARM MOIST AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. &&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
ON AN 850MB JET MOVING NORTH. THE JET WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM AREAL COVERAGE TO DECREASE. STORMS WILL STILL BE
PRESENT AS THE TYPICAL DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN WILL OCCUR HOWEVER
THE AREAL EXTENT WILL BE MUCH LESS AND I WILL TREND THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. THE MAIN PUSH OF THE HEAVIER RAIN THIS MORNING IS
RIGHT ALONG I-71. AT THIS POINT THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AND RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN OHIO HAVE NOT BEEN
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. I STILL BELIEVE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING. I WILL LEAVE THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IN TACK AT THIS TIME AND ALLOW THE EVENT TO PLAY
OUT. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER CAN MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE. WE MAY SEE A FEW
BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON SO I WILL HEDGE TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ONCE
AGAIN THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTH THROUGH
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. TIMING OF THESE SHORT WAVES WILL BE
DIFFICULT. WHILE I EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...THESE WAVES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF ONE OF THE WAVES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY
MOVING THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ANOTHER
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL OCCUR 18Z SUN TO 06Z MON. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE FINALLY MOVES EAST. DYNAMICS
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST IN ANY ONE AREA...FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THIS IS PARTICULARLY
TRUE FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT WILL START
DRYING THINGS OUT FOR A FEW DAYS...LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO. IN
THE MEANTIME THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE REASONABLE AS THE FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS EXPECTED. THE
QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL IT LAST...IT MAY ONLY BE 4 TO 5 HOURS
AND THEN A BREAK AS PER THE HRRR MODEL. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS PER WHAT IS GOING ON UPSTREAM. AS WE GET INTO THE BREAK
LATER TODAY AND CONDITIONS SHOULD TRY TO BECOME VFR. SOME QUESTION
HOW MUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WAS OPTIMISTIC AND DIDN`T
MENTION MUCH WEATHER IN THE TAFS AFTER 17Z.
ON THE EDGE WHETHER A LAKE BREEZE WILL GET TO CLE...AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE GRADIENT WILL BE TOO STRONG...CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT TO ERI.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS EARLY
MORNING FOG THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS VERY LOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW
MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. THERE IS A THREAT FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH. THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY HAPPEN AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ALOFT MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER...THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT WILL
SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>011-
017>020-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
152 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO OHIO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING INTO WRN AND SWRN
COUNTIES FROM HANCOCK TO MARION COUNTIES WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE SRN AND SERN COUNTIES FROM KNOX AND HOLMES
TO STARK. OTHERWISE MOSTLY RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
INTO MID EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL
IN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES IN ZONES ALTHOUGH DID
ADJUST GRAPHICS BASED ON TIMING FROM RADAR.
PREVIOUS...GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PUMPED INTO
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THIS FLOW WILL BRING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. ONE CLUSTER ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER
JET DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED AND ALSO ALONG THE LAKE SHORE OF NE OHIO
INTO NW PA. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN OHIO WE EXPECT TO SEE THE COVERAGE
OF THE RAINFALL INCREASE. AS IT DOES IT WILL CAUSE THE SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED ONE INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF
FLOODING AND RISE ALONG AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. SO WITH ALL THIS
SAID WE WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A
LINE FROM CLEVELAND TO MOUNT VERNON.
AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNRISE APPROACHES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP ALL THAT MUCH WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS. LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE MOST RAINFALL MAY DIP INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S BRIEFLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THEY
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH AT
LEAST A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER ANY HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION IN THE CONVECTION.
ANY ADDITIONAL RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THE MORE
BREAKS THE HIGHER INTO THE 80S WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MOVE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH THE LOW. AFTER THAT THE FRONT STALLS
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LINGERS IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO PRECISELY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL SO JUST
LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS HINT THAT
FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS EXPECTED. THE
QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL IT LAST...IT MAY ONLY BE 4 TO 5 HOURS
AND THEN A BREAK AS PER THE HRRR MODEL. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS PER WHAT IS GOING ON UPSTREAM. AS WE GET INTO THE BREAK
LATER TODAY AND CONDITIONS SHOULD TRY TO BECOME VFR. SOME QUESTION
HOW MUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WAS OPTIMISTIC AND DIDN`T
MENTION MUCH WEATHER IN THE TAFS AFTER 17Z.
ON THE EDGE WHETHER A LAKE BREEZE WILL GET TO CLE...AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE GRADIENT WILL BE TOO STRONG...CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT TO ERI.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS EARLY
MORNING FOG THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WITH THE THREAT OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AND WHETHER THEY WILL PROMPT THE NEED FOR
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. EVEN IF SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE NOT
ISSUED THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN STILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS. MARINERS WILL
HAVE TO BE ALERT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>011-
017>020-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT REMAINS
ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST SOME PATCHES OF STRATO CU
AND CIRRUS DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY.
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING NE...ALONG WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND LOW TEMPS
AROUND SUNRISE IN THE UPPER 60S /WESTERN MTNS/ TO LOWER 70S /SUSQ
VALLEY/.
SOME PATCHY 3-5SM FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF THE STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE BULK OF TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH IS - VERY WARM TO TO HOT...WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY /SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 65-70F/.
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM NAM...AND THE HRRR TARGET THE
CENTRAL AND NW MTNS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TSRA...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING BKN LINE BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z AND 04Z.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT AIR OF NEARLY 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN
PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD
DUMP VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
LARGE SCALE...DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE REGION NEAR...AND TO
THE SE OF INTERSTATE 81 RAIN-FREE DURING THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...AROUND 80F ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND 90F IN THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE /WITH ITS ORIGIN FROM THE
PACIFIC...GOMEX...CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC/ AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
RING OF FIRE WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE HEADWAY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND SATURDAY...SO EXPECTED BROAD-SCALE CONDITIONS /AND FINER
SCALE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ TO BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY /FRIDAY/.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN WITH
PERHAPS 0.10-0.25 BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. LOCALIZED...VERY HEAVY
RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES IN UNDER ONE HOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING
CELLS...OR STORMS BECOMING ANCHORED TO SOME OF THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO LG SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT
OFF LOW OVR THE MISS VALLY OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HIGH PWATS /NEARLY 2 INCHES AND PLUS 2-3
SIGMA/ AND INCREASING SWRLY LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO PA ON SATURDAY. THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
CONVECTION SAT PM. THE CHC OF CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS FLOW FLATTENS OUT...PA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL
PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION...AND MODELS
HINT AT THIS. TOUGH TO KEEP ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD DRY...BUT MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL NOT BE VERY WET EITHER...JUST A TOUGH PATTERN TO
PINPOINT SPECIFIC SHORTWAVES/WEAK FORCING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SE ACROSS THE GLAKES FOR FRIDAY...WITH POPS
AGAIN INCREASING BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED
FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS
MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH SAT/TUE/WED AS THE WARMEST DAYS
WHILE INCREASED CLOUDS TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON OTHER DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT SEEING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS. AIRMASS VERY CLEAN...AND TEMPS QUITE HIGH STILL FOR
THIS TIME OF NIGHT.
THE PATTERN STAYS VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PERHAPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE THE MTS CAN HELP WITH STORM INITIATION. OTHERWISE...THE
BIG UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE EAST. WINDS
MORE SW NOW THAN WHAT WE HAD BACK EARLIER IN THE WEEK. NEED MORE
OF A SE WIND HERE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
217 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 210 AM...SEVERAL BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE HIGH CLOUD
COVER. CONDITIONS UNDER THE CLEARING BANDS OR PATCHES MAY RAPIDLY
DEVELOP FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY
AND FOG TIMING. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND EAST FACING SLOPES. I WILL
ADJUST POPS AND DECREASE MENTION OF TSRA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
AS OF 1030 PM...ANOTHER UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. THE OVERALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE RAIN...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS. THE 00Z FFC SOUNDING
SHOWS THE 45-50 KT LLJ...WHICH WAS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE RAP AND
NAM. THEY TAKE THE JET DUE NORTH INTO ERN TN. SO PERHAPS LESS
UPSLOPE AND HIGH ELEV WIND THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT
AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS THRU THE NIGHT...BUT PERHAPS A
LULL IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND WITH HEATING
ON FRIDAY.
AS OF 800 PM...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED BANDS OF MOD-HVY
RAIN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE A FEW AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE ACRS THE I-77 CORRIDOR...STILL
FEEL OKAY WITH ALLOWING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE THERE.
ELSEWHERE...THE FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES...WITH NUMEROUS WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ATTM. THE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN
WORDING STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
AS OF 445 PM...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE TEMP/DEWPT AND SKY GRIDS TO
MATCH UP WITH OBS. POPS/WX LOOK ON TRACK...SO LEFT AS IS FOR NOW.
AS OF 300 PM...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN REGARDS TO THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ADJACENT TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXCEED 5 INCHES WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. THIS FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WILL MAINLY EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINS AND THE
FOOTHILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND MIGRATION OF MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SC
UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. DUE TO INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...AND BACKED SURFACE
WINDS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONDITIONS WILL
NOT IMPROVE MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PLUME OF MOISTURE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.
THUS...EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
ZONES WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS BEING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC
PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST SITES.
FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME AS THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN...HOWEVER CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ON MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AT ALL LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE SLOWLY FILLING UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT NE
ACROSS IL/IN ON SAT AND THEN OH ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN
THE FORM OF WIND DIVERGENCE AND A TRAILING VORTICITY AXIS WILL CROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN...PERSISTENT MOIST SRLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WILL FOCUS LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS...AND
TAPER DOWN TO MID RANGE CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR SAT AFTN.
COVERAGE MAY REBOUND THROUGHOUT THE REGION A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH THE
PASSING UPPER SUPPORT. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...A FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SRN TIER OF
THE CONUS MON THROUGH WED. SFC HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE EXCEPT FOR A
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL DRYING IS
INDICATED...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
TO 850 MB FLOW WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY TO CURB PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND PRODUCE MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND IN POPS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW ON THU. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RECOVER TO
NEAR SUMMERTIME NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 6Z...CLT AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS WERE OBSERVING IFR
CEILINGS WITH LVFR TO MVFR VIS IN BR. THE LOW CEILINGS WERE
DEVELOPING UNDER BREAKS IN THE HIGHER CLOUDS. RECENT SATE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT BREAKS MAY WIDEN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS...CONDITIONS WITHIN THE CLEARING SKY COVER ARE VERY SUITABLE
FOR INCREASE RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. RECENT MORNING TRENDS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CEILINGS WILL LIFT FROM IFR
AROUND SUNRISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...CEILINGS MAY BREAK AND LIFT TO VFR. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
BE HIGHLIGHTED DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS USING A PROB30 BETWEEN
17 TO 20Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SSE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...AT 6Z...HIGH CLOUDS REMAINED OVER KAVL AND KAND...WITH
KGMU/KGSP ON THE EDGE OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS. CONDITIONS UNDER THE
HIGHER CLOUD COVER RANGED FROM VFR TO MVFR. BREAKS IN THE HIGHER
CLOUDS OVER KHKY AND NEAR KGSP HAVE SUPPORTED IFR CEILINGS AND LARGE
RANGES IN VIS. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT HOLES OR BANDS OF
CLEARING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. I WOULD
EXPECT THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER ANY CLEARING.
THEREFORE...I WILL FAVOR AT LEAST IFR DURING THE PRE DAWN TO DAWN
HOURS. RECENT MORNING TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
CEILINGS WILL LIFT FROM IFR AROUND SUNRISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...CEILINGS MAY BREAK AND LIFT TO
VFR. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
USING A PROB30 EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SSE
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS AND FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FROM THE EAST THIS WEEKEND AS A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA. MORNING FOG
WILL FAVOR THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT MED 72% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 75% MED 75% HIGH 93% HIGH 95%
KAVL MED 75% MED 78% HIGH 89% HIGH 90%
KHKY MED 61% MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 97%
KGMU MED 69% MED 68% HIGH 90% HIGH 95%
KAND MED 71% MED 67% HIGH 97% HIGH 95%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-048>053-
056-058-059-062>065-068>070-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1127 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10KT OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHICH SHOULD BRING EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE WEATHER
FRIDAY THAN WHAT TRANSPIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
RESULTING TAFS WILL REMAIN SIMPLE AND QUIET WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
30
&&
.UPDATE...
ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FIRST PERIOD POPS
AND ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK FORCING FROM THE LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANT
OUTFLOWS OF DYING THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER
OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EAST STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THROUGH EVENING.
FARTHER WEST...A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE NOTED ON RADAR NEAR
COMANCHE. THE AIR IS MUCH DRIER HERE AT THE SURFACE SO THIS
ACTIVITY IS BASED MUCH HIGHER. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LCL/S
AROUND 12000FT WITH ABOUT 500J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
FOR THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 80S AFTER
DARK FOR FIREWORKS.
ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO
SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE
INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS A LARGE
RESERVOIR OF 2 INCH PLUS PWS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE
UPPER LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LOW. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND
THEREFORE HAS MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF MOVES THE GULF LOW INLAND VERY QUICKLY AND
KEEPS A STRONGER RIDGE. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION AS THESE TYPES OF UPPER LOWS ARE GENERALLY SLOWER
MOVING WHEN ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE POOLS OF RICH GULF MOISTURE.
GENERALLY LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST OR INLAND CAN OFTEN TIMES HELP RELOCATE THE CENTER OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW IN WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENTS. IF THIS HAPPENS...ITS
MOVEMENT WOULD APPEAR CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE
ECMWF. RAIN CHANCES LOOK BEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE STATE...BUT ANYTIME WE GET A WEAK UPPER LOW AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY. BEST CHANCES FOR NORTH TEXAS APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HUMIDITY
WILL GO UP WITH TIME MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW NEXT WEEK TO ASSESS ITS
IMPACTS ON TEMPS/RAIN CHANCES.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 96 73 96 74 / 10 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 70 97 71 98 73 / 10 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 66 92 67 93 71 / 10 10 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 69 93 70 94 72 / 10 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 67 94 70 95 72 / 10 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 75 97 76 97 77 / 10 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 69 95 71 96 73 / 10 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 71 96 73 97 73 / 10 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 68 97 70 97 73 / 10 5 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 69 96 71 96 72 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY A
COMBINATION OF DEWPOINT MIXING...START OF COOLING NOW BEING PAST THE
TIME OF PEAK HEATING...AND OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS PUSHING
EAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
JAMES BAY SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TWO EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGES NOTED ONE ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS...EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER
NOTED OFF THE EAST COAST...EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS PLACED A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SLOWLY SAGGING EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
ANCHORED OFF OF THE EAST COAST...EXTENDING EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EARLY EVENING...KEEPING A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS A ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE
OFF AFTER WE LOSE SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. RUC ANALYSIS
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH NO
CAP IN PLACE. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WE COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. AFTER
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35
MPH IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER CAPPING IN PLACE VERSUS
VS...4TH OF JULY AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES BETWEEN
800 AND 900 MB AND SHOULD HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. THIS SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FIRING BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON THIS.
PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM
09Z TO 12Z THEN LINGERING FROM 12Z TO 15Z OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE WAVE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE TROUGH STALLS OUT ON SATURDAY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND STARTS TO ACT AS A WARM FROM AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE HIGHS PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1500
TO 1900 J/KG RANGE. THERE REALLY ISNT ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING TO
LATCH ONTO FOR STORMS TO BE TRIGGER BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO GO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A STRONGER WAVE PUSHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT RAMPS UP OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EDGING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLY AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOLDS OVER
THE EAST AND FOCUS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS FOCUSED INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 160 PERCENT
OF NORMAL AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACH 4KM...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AGAIN...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON SHEAR
PROFILES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WARM FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE AREA SOME UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND RACES EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASES TO TO
25 TO 35 KTS....SO KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS TIMEFRAME.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND AND LOW MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS...WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NOTE...THOUGH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO FORM OUT OF
AN ALTOSTRATUS DECK AT RST DURING THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING BEGINNING TO TAKE
PLACE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1045 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED...WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
INITIATION WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NY AND POSSIBLY TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HI RES MODELS SUCH
AS LOCAL WRF AND ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
COVERAGE THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH CONVECTION
AS WHAT IS BEING DEPICTED IN THESE MODELS. THE HRRR IMPLYING MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE AT THIS TIME WITH
LIMITED FORCING.
SIMILAR SOUNDING PROFILE TO THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKING AT 12Z KALB
SOUNDING. SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH
MODERATE MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 30-35 KT.
HOWEVER...WARM TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -6C TO -7C AT 500 MB AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF LESS THAN 6.0 C/KM SHOULD LIMIT
SEVERITY OF STORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY STORMS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH AROUND 15 KFT
SO LARGE HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MUGGY/OPPRESSIVE RANGE OF UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH HEAT INDICES GETTING TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE WESTWARD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ON THE NW FLANK OF THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER PORTIONS OF SRN
NY AND S-CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. A QUICK CHECK OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
INDICATES H500 HEIGHT ANOMALIES JUST OFF THE ERN SEABOARD OF 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS /STD DEVS/ ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...OHIO
VALLEY...AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH HAS
BECOME NEUTRAL TILTED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MO...AND APPEARS
IT WILL CLOSE OFF. IT IS GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE STRONG
THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CA...AND THE STRONG CLOSED
BERMUDA HIGH ANTICYCLONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ANY CONVECTION TO WEAKEN QUICKLY
IN THE EARLY EVENING...AND BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDNIGHT. THE
LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING...AND WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO SHRIVEL QUICKLY. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG
TO FORM AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
LOWER TO M60S OVER THE MTNS...AND WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S OVER THE
HILLS/VALLEYS.
SATURDAY...A SFC TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH SAGGING A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID
LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL...AND PERHAPS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
COUPLED WITH THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE A MORE DISTINCT TRIGGER OR
LIFTING MECHANISM FOR ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION. THE 0-6 KM EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR DOES STRENGTHEN CLOSER TO 40-45 KTS OVER THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. SBCAPES OR MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG. SPC DOES
NOT HAVE AN OUTLOOK...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MATERIALIZE IF A CLEAR TRIGGER MECHANISM TAPS INTO THE UNSTABLE...HIGH
DEWPT/PWAT AIR. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MONITOR THIS PERIOD. WEAK COOLING DOES
OCCUR AT H850...BUT THE SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE SW AND W SHOULD
ALLOW LOCAL EFFECTS LIKE DOWNSLOPING/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FOR MAX
TEMPS TO REACH THE U80S TO L90S FOR LOCATIONS 1000 FT OF ELEVATION
AND LOWER...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN. SOME
SPOTTY 100 DEG HEAT INDICES MAY ALSO BE AROUND...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE HWO FOR A POSSIBLE ADVISORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM SHOULD DISSOLVE
QUICKLY AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING. VARIABLE
CLOUDS...MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE COMMON AGAIN
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO L70S...LIKE A BROKEN RECORD.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME SMALL CHANGES WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH
SETTLING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD...AND THE CLOSED LOW INCHING
CLOSER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE SULTRY AIR
MASS. THE BETTER SBCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ACCORDING TO GFS ARE
OVER THE SRN ZONES...SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS STILL
AROUND -7C. PWATS CONTINUE IN THE 1.33-2.0" RANGE...SO SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. IT COULD BE THE 4TH
DAY IN A ROW OF 90 DEG OR GREATER READINGS IN MANY OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS...SUCH AS KALB AND KPOU. THE UPSTREAM CLOSED
LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY MAY MAKE A RUN AT PARTS OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR A MORE SUSTAINED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
NO RELIEF IS ON THE WAY PRIOR TO MONDAY WITH THE BALMY WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING...SO STAYING COOL WILL BE IMPORTANT...AS HEAT
INDICES WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
A BERMUDA HIGH SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL CIRCULATE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIR ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FINALLY STARTS TO DROP
SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF IT ON THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT
SOME MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING GIVING WAY TO SCT050 LATER THIS MORNING WITH BKN080
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BCMG SOUTHWEST AT 6-8 KTS LATER
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TO SCT AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND/OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS
WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE RH TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR EXCELLENT RECOVERIES EACH NIGHT WITH
85 TO 100 PERCENT READINGS AND WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. DAYTIME VALUES
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE.
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA CONTINUES TO HAVE MINOR FLOODING. THE
RIVER AND CREEK FLOWS NEAR THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK RIVER ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND...UNLESS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR OVER OR NEAR THE BASIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A QUICK INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL DUE TO THE
ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...AS
WELL AS FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. NO FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES ARE BEING ISSUED DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE
OF ANY FLOODING. IT IS ALSO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR.
WHILE ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON ANY MAIN STEM RIVER
POINTS...LOCALLY SHARP RISES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO ANY CONVECTION THAT
MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE POINTS
THAT ARE MORE FLASHIER IN NATURE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1004 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1005 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE
REST OF FORECAST IS THE SAME. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH SSE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
578 DM 500 MB LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL MO TO TRACK SLOWLY INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE DIRUNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS UNTIL SUNSET NEXT
FEW DAYS. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 80S EASTERN IL WHERE
MORE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT AND MID 80S WESTERN IL. A BIT HUMID TODAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. SOME FOG COULD AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER
06Z/1 AM TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IL
IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT ENOUGH DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
DEWPOINTS.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...AFFECTING
AREAS FROM KBMI-KDEC EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH LOW STRATUS
AROUND A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE GROUND. HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES
LOWER TO AROUND 2 MILES WESTWARD TO KPIA/KSPI AS WELL. WORST OF
THE FOG SHOULD BE OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT AS
THE STRONG JULY SUN KICKS IN. LATER THIS MORNING...DIURNAL CUMULUS
AROUND 4000 FEET SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOWARD 15-16Z. RAP MODEL
LAYER HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST KCMI SEEING THE MOST
CLOUDS...WITH VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES.
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH...THINK WE WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW...HAVE
ONLY MENTIONED VISIBILITY BELOW 3/4SM AT KCMI...WITH MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST OVERALL THIS MORNING. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE CHANGES AS MODELS HOLD ON TO A
RATHER SLOW DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...UNTIL THAT TROF PULLS OUT TO THE NE. THEN THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS ON THE EDGE OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW TO THE NORTH FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL A
FRONT DRAGS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE SOME DRYING
OUT IN THE EXTENDED FOR DAY 7. TEMPS WARMING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR JULY AS HOT AND MUGGY AIR PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST FROM A RATHER
WARM AND MUGGY GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME. UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE INSTABILITY SHOWERS. WITH THE
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW...SHOWERS AND
TS HAVE BEEN CONFINED FOR THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS TO NRN MO AND
SRN IA. AS A RESULT...EDGED THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO CHANCE FOR
EXTREME SW. THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH LIKELY VERY SCT IN NATURE IF THE 4KM WRF IS ANY
INDICATION. OTHER ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THAT WITH THE
RATHER STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT...NOTHING IS REALLY PUSHING THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER INDIANA OUT OF THE WAY. BOUNDARY WOBBLES A BIT HERE
AND THERE...SLIGHTLY RISING THE CHANCES FOR SOME PRECIP IN EXTREME
EASTERN IL. WARM AND MUGGY AIR MOVING IN BRINGING TEMPS INTO THE
80S WITH NEAR 70 DEGREE DWPTS AND HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 80S.
IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH AFTERNOON XOVER TEMPS AS THE
MORNINGS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SATURATE AT SOME POINT AND CREATE A
FOG ISSUE FOR EARLY MORNING. COVERAGE AND CERTAINTY ARE STILL A
BIT WANTING...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE GRIDS SO FAR.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WAVE FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE FA AND LEAVES MUCH OF THE SRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITHOUT A WHOLE LOT OF DYNAMICS ALOFT. MORE
PROGRESSIVE STREAM JUST TO THE NORTH...LEAVING MUCH OF NRN HALF OF
STATE ON THE EDGE OF THE FLOW AND MODELS CONSISTENT WITH RATHER
EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY MON/TUE. WITH PLENTY OF UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE
FROM THE WEEKENDS OPEN GULF...ANY RIPPLE ALONG THAT FLOW LIKELY TO
BE ENOUGH TO HELP KICK OFF SHOWERS AND TS. ONCE IT STARTS...THE
MESOSCALE STORM FEATURES AND BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
RAINY/STORMY COUPLE OF DAYS. AT LEAST UNTIL A COLD FRONT FINALLY
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF IT MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...THE MODELS
DO DRY OUT THE REGION A BIT...PROVIDING A BREAK FROM THE POPS FOR
THURSDAY.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
627 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST OVERALL THIS MORNING. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE CHANGES AS MODELS HOLD ON TO A
RATHER SLOW DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...UNTIL THAT TROF PULLS OUT TO THE NE. THEN THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS ON THE EDGE OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW TO THE NORTH FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL A
FRONT DRAGS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE SOME DRYING
OUT IN THE EXTENDED FOR DAY 7. TEMPS WARMING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR JULY AS HOT AND MUGGY AIR PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST FROM A RATHER
WARM AND MUGGY GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS MUCH THE
SAME. UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE INSTABILITY SHOWERS. WITH THE
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW...SHOWERS AND
TS HAVE BEEN CONFINED FOR THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS TO NRN MO AND
SRN IA. AS A RESULT...EDGED THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO CHANCE FOR
EXTREME SW. THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH LIKELY VERY SCT IN NATURE IF THE 4KM WRF IS ANY
INDICATION. OTHER ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THAT WITH THE
RATHER STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT...NOTHING IS REALLY PUSHING THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER INDIANA OUT OF THE WAY. BOUNDARY WOBBLES A BIT HERE
AND THERE...SLIGHTLY RISING THE CHANCES FOR SOME PRECIP IN EXTREME
EASTERN IL. WARM AND MUGGY AIR MOVING IN BRINGING TEMPS INTO THE
80S WITH NEAR 70 DEGREE DWPTS AND HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 80S.
IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH AFTERNOON XOVER TEMPS AS THE
MORNINGS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SATURATE AT SOME POINT AND CREATE A
FOG ISSUE FOR EARLY MORNING. COVERAGE AND CERTAINTY ARE STILL A
BIT WANTING...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE GRIDS SO FAR.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WAVE FINALLY PULLS OUT OF THE FA AND LEAVES MUCH OF THE SRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITHOUT A WHOLE LOT OF DYNAMICS ALOFT. MORE
PROGRESSIVE STREAM JUST TO THE NORTH...LEAVING MUCH OF NRN HALF OF
STATE ON THE EDGE OF THE FLOW AND MODELS CONSISTENT WITH RATHER
EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY MON/TUE. WITH PLENTY OF UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE
FROM THE WEEKENDS OPEN GULF...ANY RIPPLE ALONG THAT FLOW LIKELY TO
BE ENOUGH TO HELP KICK OFF SHOWERS AND TS. ONCE IT STARTS...THE
MESOSCALE STORM FEATURES AND BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
RAINY/STORMY COUPLE OF DAYS. AT LEAST UNTIL A COLD FRONT FINALLY
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF IT MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...THE MODELS
DO DRY OUT THE REGION A BIT...PROVIDING A BREAK FROM THE POPS FOR
THURSDAY.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...AFFECTING
AREAS FROM KBMI-KDEC EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH LOW STRATUS
AROUND A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE GROUND. HAVE SEEN VISIBILITIES
LOWER TO AROUND 2 MILES WESTWARD TO KPIA/KSPI AS WELL. WORST OF
THE FOG SHOULD BE OVER THE NEXT HOUR...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT AS
THE STRONG JULY SUN KICKS IN. LATER THIS MORNING...DIURNAL CUMULUS
AROUND 4000 FEET SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOWARD 15-16Z. RAP MODEL
LAYER HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST KCMI SEEING THE MOST
CLOUDS...WITH VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES.
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH...THINK WE WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW...HAVE
ONLY MENTIONED VISIBILITY BELOW 3/4SM AT KCMI...WITH MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
656 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
THE 05.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER AIR FLOW
PATTERN AS COMPARED TO THE 04.00Z RAOBS. BASICALLY, ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUED
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. MAGNITUDES WERE 70 KT (@72768) ON THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM WAS AROUND 115 KT
(@72645). @ 500 HPA, THE CENTER OF A 592 DM ANTICYCLONE WAS NEAR 72388.
FAIRLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -5 DEG C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
SAID PRESSURE PERTURBATION. DOWNSTREAM, A BROAD TROF EXTENDED ROUGHLY
FROM 72440 TO 72645. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE -13 TO -14 DEG C RANGE.
AT 700 HPA, 2 DEGREES C OF WARMING WERE NOTED AT 72451 IN COMPARING
04.00Z AND 05.00Z RAOBS. SAME ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF WARMING WAS NOTED
AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME UPPER AIR SITE. AT THE SFC, A LEE SURFACE TROF
WAS ANALYZED ACROSS SE COLORADO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWARD TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.0W @ 05.03Z AND TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N 100.0W @ 05.03Z
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THIS MORNING:
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING IS RATHER UNCOMPLICATED AND STRAIGHT FORWARD.
THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 05.00Z NAM
SHOWS SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION, KDDC WSR- 88D VAD PROFILE
SHOWS A STRENGTHENING 850 HPA LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH 05Z. FEEL THAT THE
HRRR IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF. THE NAM IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING CLOSER THE TROF MENTIONED IN THE
SYNOPSIS. AS A RESULT, WILL KEEP PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGE
POINTS AT OR BELOW 14 PERCENT DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF-ARW DO NOT SHOW ANYTHING EXCITING
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TODAY:
NEAR NEUTRAL 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
AT THE SFC, A LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE
NET RESULT IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAYS SENSIBLE WEATHER
FOR TODAY... ERGO A FEW CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHER THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND IN THE MID 90S AS THE
850 HPA WARM PLUME ADVECTS FARTHER EAST. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
WARM TO HOT AND BREEZY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TODAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WHICH IS THE
MOST IDEAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT:
BY DUSK, WINDS SHOULD ABATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF MAGNITUDES 10-18 MPH IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL 05.00Z NAM RUN SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. THE NESTED 05.00Z 4 KM NAM KEEPS CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECTED CONVERGENCE
FARTHER WEST, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE POINTS
AT OR BELOW 14 PERCENT. EVEN TAKING THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE NAM AT
FACE VALUE, AN INSPECTION OF FORECAST SKEW T/LOG-P`S SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S DEG F.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
A RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
KANSAS REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THE 500MB HIGH
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO
BORDER REGION WITH A WEAK JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME FAIRLY FLAT GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO INTO OKLAHOMA AS ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
SUSTAINED LEE TROUGH FEATURE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE ZONAL
JET STREAM. NONE OF THESE FRONTAL SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHERN KANSAS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM IN THE
LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY ALONG THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AXIS (AND MORE LIKELY OVER
TERRAIN-FAVORED REGIONS OF COLORADO)...BUT THE OVERALL WEAK
MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PREVENT AN EASTWARD PUSH OF
CONVECTION FAR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE CONFINED ONLY TO FAR WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
A COLD FRONT PUSH LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGER PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL (AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
DAKOTAS ADJACENT CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION). SHOULD THE
FRONT PENETRATE KANSAS MID-WEEK...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INSTEAD OF THE LOW 100S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
STATUS-QUO AS FAR AS AVIATION WEATHER IS CONCERNED. PREVAILING
WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS A
LEE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS (GCK, DDC, HYS).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 96 68 100 73 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 97 69 100 72 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 97 68 98 72 / 10 10 20 20
LBL 97 66 100 72 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 97 69 100 74 / 10 10 10 10
P28 95 69 100 74 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HOVORKA_42
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1011 AM EDT FRI JUL 05 2013
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Mostly cloudy conditions were noted across the service area this
morning. Not much change in the overall atmospheric structure was
noted this morning. We`re still in a squeeze game between ridges on
the US coasts, with an upper level low working out of the eastern
Plains. The flow pattern is producing deep fetch of tropical
moisture coming up from the Florida panhandle northward into the
central-eastern sections of the Ohio Valley.
For the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon hours, the
best chances for rainfall look to be along and east of a line from
near Bowling Green northeastward to near Shelbyville. The axis of
heaviest precipitation will probably set up along our SE counties
mainly along a line from Tompkinsville northeastward through
Lawrenceburg. This area of rain looks to move out early this
afternoon with somewhat of a lull in precipitation coverage this
afternoon. There is some data that suggest that we may see some
breaks in the cloud cover. If this occurs, we could tap into the
insolation and generate enough instability for some thunderstorms to
develop. With precipitable water values up above 1.75 inches,
combined with greater than 80% RH in the low-levels, and little
shear, these storms could train over areas which would result in a
continued flood threat. With this in mind, we plan on keeping the
Flash Flood Watch intact at this time.
We will be closely evaluating the new 12Z data suite as it comes in
later this morning and this afternoon. Our concerns focus on a
couple of mid-level waves that look to bring several more rounds of
showers and storms to the region. The first wave looks to roll in
during the overnight hours tonight. More diurnally driven storms
look likely for Saturday afternoon with another upper wave forecast
to come in Saturday night. Each of these waves will have the
ability to produce widespread convection along with the possibility
of thunderstorms which would be producing torrential rains given the
high atmospheric moisture content. The main forecast challenge will
be determining where the actual heavy precipitation axis will set
up. Overall, the models have not been too bad with the placements
thus far, and our current Flash Flood Watch covers the area at
highest risk for flooding. Current thinking is that if the 12Z
models continue to suggest the additional two waves of convection,
an extension of the watch out through Sunday looks very likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Not much change in the atmosphere during the short term, with the
region continuing to be squeezed between an upper trof to the west
and an upper ridge to the east. An impressive plume of deep
moisture will continue to stream from the Gulf of Mexico to the
Saint Lawrence Valley. As a result, widespread clouds and
occasional showers will dominate the short term forecast.
There really isn`t much model or WPC QPF support for flooding rains
today. Showers continue over the eastern third of the CWA early
this morning, as well depicted by the HRRR, with nothing much
upstream. The HRRR shows the current batch of showers exiting the
region early this morning followed by a lull in the action mid-late
morning. Cross-sections suggest we could see a few breaks in the
clouds this afternoon and some regeneration of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Despite the lack of solid model support for heavy
rain today, the fact remains that we still have an extremely juicy
atmosphere and a good set up for training. Any showers/storms that
do develop today will be capable of locally heavy downpours and
places that get hit repeatedly will certainly suffer some water
problems. So, after coordinating with neighboring offices, will go
ahead and keep most of the Flash Flood Watch. Will, however, shave
off the westernmost edge of the watch where rainfall amounts
yesterday were fairly moderate and FFG numbers are higher.
Tonight a coherent vort max is progged to move from south to north
across the area, resulting in widespread showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms, especially after midnight. As of right now, this
activity actually looks slightly more promising for heavy rains than
what we see today, though the main axis should be just slightly west
of where the most rain has fallen over the past 24 hours.
After another lull Saturday morning, additional development is
expected in the afternoon with some destabilization plus the
possibility of another wave moving through. Once again locally
heavy downpours will be possible.
Our high temperatures on the Fourth of July were more typical of
late April. With maybe a little less rain and a bit of partial
sunshine possible this afternoon will go a few degrees warmer than
yesterday for highs today but will still stay well below normal with
highs in the middle and upper 70s. The far west may touch 80. Lows
tonight will be in the middle and upper 60s, with highs on Saturday
not much different from what we see today.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Unsettled and frequently cloudy weather is expected for the latter
portion of the weekend. For the last several days, a massive Bermuda
high of near 600dm off the Virginia coast has blocked a sharp trough
aligned over the Lower Missouri Valley from moving east. This
pattern will finally break down early next week as zonal flow
becomes established over the northern tier of the country.
However, for Saturday night and for much of Sunday, this practically
cut-off 500mb low will still lie west of Louisville, only slowly
crossing southern Indiana by late Sunday. Through Sunday
afternoon, the Lower Ohio Valley will still lie under a plume of
tropical moisture extending north from the Gulf of Mexico. Expect
cloudy skies Saturday night through early Sunday with occasional
showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. Instability will stay
marginal for thunderstorms, but with PWATs just under 2 inches and
some lift associated with a jet overhead, some of these showers
could produce localized heavy rain. Rain chances may actually
diminish a bit towards Sunday evening as veering winds bring drier
air in from the west late in the day. Seasonably cool temperatures
in the lower 80s are expected Sunday afternoon, even with some
potential partial clearing late.
Summer returns Monday and Tuesday. Southwesterly flow will become
established as the aforementioned 500mb low weakens and scoots
across New England. By late Monday, the polar jet will have
retreated to north of the Great Lakes and weak flow aloft will
develop over the region as broad 500mb ridging spreads eastwards
from the southern Plains. Expect a warm humid regime Monday through
Wednesday. Our recent rains will augment already humid air, so each
overnight period will feel muggy. Afternoon high temperatures will
possibly approach 90 for this period.
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible each day, with
coverage likely the least on Monday. PWATs increase again Tuesday
and Wednesday to over 1.75 inches. This may allow individual
thunderstorms to produce localized heavy rains.
A shortwave across the upper Midwest late Wednesday will begin to
dig, eventually carving a trough over western New England by next
Friday. A cold front will approach southern Indiana early Thursday.
Gulf moisture pooling ahead of this boundary will aid in developing
possibly widespread convection late Wednesday into Thursday with the
possibility of localized heavy rainfall. Currently, our forecast has
high chances for Wednesday afternoon and overnight. However, we may
bring in likely chances in later forecasts once the front`s timing
becomes better known.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
The deep moisture plume coming from the Gulf of Mexico will continue
through today and tonight, leading to a very moist atmosphere and a
low confidence TAF package.
Low ceilings are the primary concern this morning. Ceilings around
the MVFR/IFR border have been coming and going. It is currently
felt that these ceilings will likely prevail early this morning.
Will then gradually allow those ceilings to lift, reaching low VFR
this afternoon.
Showers will be possible just about any time through the TAF
period. LEX will stand the best chance of the most consistent
rain. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well, primarily this
afternoon. The best chances tonight appear to be during the
overnight hours as a weak upper wave moves through.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Current Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of central
Kentucky through this evening. Rainfall across the region today may
be not be as widespread as we`ve seen in recent days. However, we
may see more thunderstorm activity this afternoon if breaks in the
clouds develop and tap into the diurnal instability that is forecast
to develop. The current data suite continues to show the potential
for two additional waves of shower and thunderstorm activity. The
first wave is forecast to move in during the overnight hours tonight
and then a secondary wave is very possible Saturday night and into
Sunday morning. These showers and storms will have access to a very
rich airmass with precipitable water values in the 1.8-2.0 inch
range and near complete saturation in the low-levels. This combined
with a low shear profile suggests that low-centroid, highly
efficient rainers with the potential for training. If the new
05/12Z data suite supports this, the Flash Flood Watch will need to
be extended in time through at least Sunday Morning.
We have also been looking at both the deterministic and ensemble QPF
and ensemble river forecast guidance for our larger rivers. At this
time, the data suggests that we may develop flooding problems on the
Green River, the Rolling Fork River, the Kentucky River, and the
Licking River basin through the upcoming weekend. We will be
closely evaluating the new suite of data and will be coordinating
with the OHRFC this afternoon.
Persons living near creeks, streams, and typical flood prone areas
should keep abreast of water levels and be prepared to take action
if water starts to rise or if warnings are issued.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.
$$
Update...........MJ
Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........13
Hydrology........MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT FRI JUL 05 2013
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Not much change in the atmosphere during the short term, with the
region continuing to be squeezed between an upper trof to the west
and an upper ridge to the east. An impressive plume of deep
moisture will continue to stream from the Gulf of Mexico to the
Saint Lawrence Valley. As a result, widespread clouds and
occasional showers will dominate the short term forecast.
There really isn`t much model or WPC QPF support for flooding rains
today. Showers continue over the eastern third of the CWA early
this morning, as well depicted by the HRRR, with nothing much
upstream. The HRRR shows the current batch of showers exiting the
region early this morning followed by a lull in the action mid-late
morning. Cross-sections suggest we could see a few breaks in the
clouds this afternoon and some regeneration of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Despite the lack of solid model support for heavy
rain today, the fact remains that we still have an extremely juicy
atmosphere and a good set up for training. Any showers/storms that
do develop today will be capable of locally heavy downpours and
places that get hit repeatedly will certainly suffer some water
problems. So, after coordinating with neighboring offices, will go
ahead and keep most of the Flash Flood Watch. Will, however, shave
off the westernmost edge of the watch where rainfall amounts
yesterday were fairly moderate and FFG numbers are higher.
Tonight a coherent vort max is progged to move from south to north
across the area, resulting in widespread showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms, especially after midnight. As of right now, this
activity actually looks slightly more promising for heavy rains than
what we see today, though the main axis should be just slightly west
of where the most rain has fallen over the past 24 hours.
After another lull Saturday morning, additional development is
expected in the afternoon with some destabilization plus the
possibility of another wave moving through. Once again locally
heavy downpours will be possible.
Our high temperatures on the Fourth of July were more typical of
late April. With maybe a little less rain and a bit of partial
sunshine possible this afternoon will go a few degrees warmer than
yesterday for highs today but will still stay well below normal with
highs in the middle and upper 70s. The far west may touch 80. Lows
tonight will be in the middle and upper 60s, with highs on Saturday
not much different from what we see today.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Unsettled and frequently cloudy weather is expected for the latter
portion of the weekend. For the last several days, a massive Bermuda
high of near 600dm off the Virginia coast has blocked a sharp trough
aligned over the Lower Missouri Valley from moving east. This
pattern will finally break down early next week as zonal flow
becomes established over the northern tier of the country.
However, for Saturday night and for much of Sunday, this practically
cut-off 500mb low will still lie west of Louisville, only slowly
crossing southern Indiana by late Sunday. Through Sunday
afternoon, the Lower Ohio Valley will still lie under a plume of
tropical moisture extending north from the Gulf of Mexico. Expect
cloudy skies Saturday night through early Sunday with occasional
showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. Instability will stay
marginal for thunderstorms, but with PWATs just under 2 inches and
some lift associated with a jet overhead, some of these showers
could produce localized heavy rain. Rain chances may actually
diminish a bit towards Sunday evening as veering winds bring drier
air in from the west late in the day. Seasonably cool temperatures
in the lower 80s are expected Sunday afternoon, even with some
potential partial clearing late.
Summer returns Monday and Tuesday. Southwesterly flow will become
established as the aforementioned 500mb low weakens and scoots
across New England. By late Monday, the polar jet will have
retreated to north of the Great Lakes and weak flow aloft will
develop over the region as broad 500mb ridging spreads eastwards
from the southern Plains. Expect a warm humid regime Monday through
Wednesday. Our recent rains will augment already humid air, so each
overnight period will feel muggy. Afternoon high temperatures will
possibly approach 90 for this period.
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible each day, with
coverage likely the least on Monday. PWATs increase again Tuesday
and Wednesday to over 1.75 inches. This may allow individual
thunderstorms to produce localized heavy rains.
A shortwave across the upper Midwest late Wednesday will begin to
dig, eventually carving a trough over western New England by next
Friday. A cold front will approach southern Indiana early Thursday.
Gulf moisture pooling ahead of this boundary will aid in developing
possibly widespread convection late Wednesday into Thursday with the
possibility of localized heavy rainfall. Currently, our forecast has
high chances for Wednesday afternoon and overnight. However, we may
bring in likely chances in later forecasts once the front`s timing
becomes better known.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
The deep moisture plume coming from the Gulf of Mexico will continue
through today and tonight, leading to a very moist atmosphere and a
low confidence TAF package.
Low ceilings are the primary concern this morning. Ceilings around
the MVFR/IFR border have been coming and going. It is currently
felt that these ceilings will likely prevail early this morning.
Will then gradually allow those ceilings to lift, reaching low VFR
this afternoon.
Showers will be possible just about any time through the TAF
period. LEX will stand the best chance of the most consistent
rain. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well, primarily this
afternoon. The best chances tonight appear to be during the
overnight hours as a weak upper wave moves through.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-
053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.
$$
Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS NOW NEARLY CUTOFF
FROM THE MAIN WEST-EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
WILL SHEAR OUT AND SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...AREA IS UNDER A RIDGE FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LED TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW YESTERDAY AND
IT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO A
STATIONARY TROUGH SETUP IN WESTERN ONTARIO TO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL THE DRY AIR SEEN ON
THE 00Z KMPX SOUNDING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND WILL LEAD TO A NICE
AND WARM SUMMER DAY. MIXING TO 850MB TEMPS OF 17C OVER THE WESTERN
CWA AND 15C OVER THE EAST WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
OVER THE WEST AND THE MID 80S OVER THE EAST. THE COOLEST VALUES WILL
BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE VALUES
IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE WEST AND THE TRADITIONAL
WARM RAWS SITES. THESE VALUES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SEEN UPSTREAM IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA YESTERDAY.
NAM/HRRR/RAP SHOWING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EAST. THE HRRR AND ONE OF OUR LOCAL RAP
INITIALIZED WRF-ARW RUNS EVEN DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MID
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN BREEZE BOUNDARY. WITH ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ABOVE THAT CU...WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. OTHERWISE...WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL AID MIXING INTO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ALSO
MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS. HIGHEST CORE OF WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHERE GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. AS
FOR DEWPOINTS...ML VALUES FROM THE MODELS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA (MATCHES VALUES SEEN UPSTREAM YESTERDAY). THIS
PRODUCES MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE WEST AND
UPPER 30S OVER THE EAST. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 5-6 DAYS...SUPPORTS
ISSUING A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT OVER THE WEST HALF EVEN
THOUGH THEY HAVE HAD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30
DAYS. SINCE COORDINATION WAS PERFORMED YESTERDAY WITH THE DNR...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE IT THIS MORNING.
AS FOR CONDITIONS UPSTREAM THAT WILL INFLUENCE TONIGHT/S
FORECAST...THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH LIMITED WESTWARD PUSH TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH TODAY AND STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL THE EVENING
AND MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE GIVES IT A PUSH TO
THE EAST. A COUPLE MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT IN NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD MOVE NE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES WEST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING (LARGELY BROAD AND WEAK OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH THE BEST IN ONTARIO) AND JUST THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LOW TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCES POPS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES REACHING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE DIMINISHING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXITING NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT MID CLOUDS TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE
WEST HALF BY DAYBREAK AND THE EAST WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP DURING THE NIGHT...THINK LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE LOW 60S EAST AND MID-UPPER 60S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SATURDAY...A MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY TOWARD IN/OH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN
ONTARIO WILL PUSH A FRONT TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL
RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1K J/KG OVER THE CNTRL AND WEST.
SINCE THE FORCING WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
THE AREA IN THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...ONLY LOWER END POPS WERE
INCLUDED OVER THE NW HALF.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE ZONAL PATTERN CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE THE SHRTWV IS LOW. PWAT VALUES TO AROUND
1.75 INCH WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LCLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE MAIN
HAZARD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CWA. IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER DEVELOP...AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AROUND 1K J/KG
SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH THE FRONT AND LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
WEAK/MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONGER/SVR STORMS.
MON...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDAY S EXPECTED TO SAG TO
THE SOUTH OF UPPER MI...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WEAK SHRTWVS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THAT COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PCPN KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
TUE-THU...THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY WED.
QVECTOR CONV AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY FROM TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. A RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED BY THU WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MID CLOUDS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLY APPROACHING KIWD/KSAW TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR S-SW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALMOST DOWN TO THE WATER. ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGER WINDS SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
HIGHER PLATFORMS. DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AT BAY
TODAY...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
LAKE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS LOW AND KEEP
WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP SOUTHERLY WINDS AS A WARM
FRONT RETREATS ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE ONGOING
SHOWERS...RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN NEB...ERN WY
AND SWRN SD WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST TODAY AFFECTING NRN
NEB ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 FOR THE MOST PART. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES
COULD RISE INTO THE MID 90S WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 80S...PERHAPS COOLER DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF THE
RAIN WHICH MOST MODELS SHOW DECAYING IN THE STABLE NERN QUADRANT
OF THE H500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH THE STRONG HEATING. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED
AS DEW POINTS AT THE SFC REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP GIVEN THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. STILL ELEVATED STORMS MIGHT PRODUCE
STRONG OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE BIG NEWS IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING AROUND 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES LATELY...BUT WILL INCREASE TO
OVER 1.25 INCHES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IS 1.08 INCHES...SO THIS WEEKENDS PWATS WILL BE IN
THE 75TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY...WITH A MORE
ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW EXPECTED.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. CAPE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG IN
THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR RUNNING MAINLY AROUND
30 KTS WITH THE NW APPROACHING 40 KTS. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...THE FRONT MAKES SOME PROGRESS SOUTH...FOCUSING THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS
INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WYOMING AND INTO NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. CAPES
WILL GENERALLY RUN 1500-2500 J/KG...WITH THE BEST DEEP SHEAR IN THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 40 KTS YIELDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NORTH TO
NEAR 100 SOUTH ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT TO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 90S ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTH.
NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS EARLY
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PWATS STAY RATHER HIGH THROUGH MID WEEK...
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ONGOING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ERN WY/NCNTL COLO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
MODEL CONCENSUS SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TRAVERSE THE FCST AREA. GIVEN THAT MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE
AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH FUEL STATUS IS NEGATIVE FOR FIRE GROWTH...ONE WILD FIRE
DEVELOPED NEAR ROSCOE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTING FUELS MAY BE
FAVORABLE IN SOME AREAS. THE AREA CONCERN FOR WILD FIRES IS WHERE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND THIS WOULD BE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT FCST
TO BE ALONG OR NEAR HIGHWAY 20. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE ON AN 850MB JET MOVING NORTH. THE JET WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM AREAL COVERAGE TO DECREASE. STORMS
WILL STILL BE PRESENT AS THE TYPICAL DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN WILL
OCCUR HOWEVER THE AREAL EXTENT WILL BE MUCH LESS AND I WILL TREND
THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE MAIN PUSH OF THE HEAVIER RAIN THIS
MORNING IS RIGHT ALONG I-71. AT THIS POINT THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AND RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. I STILL BELIEVE SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING. I WILL
LEAVE THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IN TACK AT THIS TIME AND ALLOW THE
EVENT TO PLAY OUT. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE.
WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON SO I WILL HEDGE TO THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ONCE
AGAIN THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTH THROUGH
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. TIMING OF THESE SHORT WAVES WILL BE
DIFFICULT. WHILE I EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...THESE WAVES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF ONE OF THE WAVES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY
MOVING THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY. ANOTHER
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL OCCUR 18Z SUN TO 06Z MON. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE FINALLY MOVES EAST. DYNAMICS
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST IN ANY ONE AREA...FLOODING WILL OCCUR. THIS IS PARTICULARLY
TRUE FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT WILL START
DRYING THINGS OUT FOR A FEW DAYS...LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO. IN
THE MEANTIME THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE REASONABLE AS THE FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS EXPECTED. THE
QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL IT LAST...IT MAY ONLY BE 4 TO 5 HOURS
AND THEN A BREAK AS PER THE HRRR MODEL. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AS PER WHAT IS GOING ON UPSTREAM. AS WE GET INTO THE BREAK
LATER TODAY AND CONDITIONS SHOULD TRY TO BECOME VFR. SOME QUESTION
HOW MUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WAS OPTIMISTIC AND DIDN`T
MENTION MUCH WEATHER IN THE TAFS AFTER 17Z.
ON THE EDGE WHETHER A LAKE BREEZE WILL GET TO CLE...AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE THE GRADIENT WILL BE TOO STRONG...CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT TO ERI.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS EARLY
MORNING FOG THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS VERY LOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW
MAINLY EAST OF CLEVELAND. THERE IS A THREAT FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH. THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY HAPPEN AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ALOFT MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER...THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT WILL
SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
006>011-017>020-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
738 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT REMAINS
ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST SOME PATCHES OF STRATO CU
AND CIRRUS DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY.
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING NE...ALONG WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND LOW TEMPS
AROUND SUNRISE IN THE UPPER 60S /WESTERN MTNS/ TO LOWER 70S /SUSQ
VALLEY/.
SOME PATCHY 3-5SM FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF THE STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE BULK OF TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH IS - VERY WARM TO TO HOT...WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY /SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 65-70F/.
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM NAM...AND THE HRRR TARGET THE
CENTRAL AND NW MTNS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TSRA...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING BKN LINE BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z AND 04Z.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT AIR OF NEARLY 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN
PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD
DUMP VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
LARGE SCALE...DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE REGION NEAR...AND TO
THE SE OF INTERSTATE 81 RAIN-FREE DURING THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...AROUND 80F ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND 90F IN THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE /WITH ITS ORIGIN FROM THE
PACIFIC...GOMEX...CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC/ AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
RING OF FIRE WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE HEADWAY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND SATURDAY...SO EXPECTED BROAD-SCALE CONDITIONS /AND FINER
SCALE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ TO BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY /FRIDAY/.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN WITH
PERHAPS 0.10-0.25 BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. LOCALIZED...VERY HEAVY
RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES IN UNDER ONE HOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING
CELLS...OR STORMS BECOMING ANCHORED TO SOME OF THE FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO LG SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT
OFF LOW OVR THE MISS VALLY OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HIGH PWATS /NEARLY 2 INCHES AND PLUS 2-3
SIGMA/ AND INCREASING SWRLY LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO PA ON SATURDAY. THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
CONVECTION SAT PM. THE CHC OF CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS FLOW FLATTENS OUT...PA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL
PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION...AND MODELS
HINT AT THIS. TOUGH TO KEEP ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD DRY...BUT MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL NOT BE VERY WET EITHER...JUST A TOUGH PATTERN TO
PINPOINT SPECIFIC SHORTWAVES/WEAK FORCING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SE ACROSS THE GLAKES FOR FRIDAY...WITH POPS
AGAIN INCREASING BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED
FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS
MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH SAT/TUE/WED AS THE WARMEST DAYS
WHILE INCREASED CLOUDS TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON OTHER DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LITTLE FOG AT BFD...BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE. SHOULD BURN OFF
SOON.
NOT SEEING MUCH FOG...EVEN WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS. AIRMASS IS VERY
CLEAN...AND TEMPS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF MORNING.
THE PATTERN STAYS VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERHAPS
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY IN THE NW...WHERE THE MTS CAN
HELP WITH STORM INITIATION. OTHERWISE...THE BIG UPPER RIDGE WILL
HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE EAST. WINDS MORE SW NOW THAN
WHAT WE HAD BACK EARLIER IN THE WEEK. NEED MORE OF A SE WIND HERE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
626 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH
INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS IT REMAINS
ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST SOME PATCHES OF STRATO CU
AND CIRRUS DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY.
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING NE...ALONG WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND LOW TEMPS
AROUND SUNRISE IN THE UPPER 60S /WESTERN MTNS/ TO LOWER 70S /SUSQ
VALLEY/.
SOME PATCHY 3-5SM FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF THE STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE BULK OF TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH IS - VERY WARM TO TO HOT...WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY /SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 65-70F/.
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM NAM...AND THE HRRR TARGET THE
CENTRAL AND NW MTNS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TSRA...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A FEW SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING BKN LINE BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z AND 04Z.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT AIR OF NEARLY 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN
PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD
DUMP VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
LARGE SCALE...DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE REGION NEAR...AND TO
THE SE OF INTERSTATE 81 RAIN-FREE DURING THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...AROUND 80F ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND 90F IN THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE /WITH ITS ORIGIN FROM THE
PACIFIC...GOMEX...CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC/ AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
RING OF FIRE WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE HEADWAY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND SATURDAY...SO EXPECTED BROAD-SCALE CONDITIONS /AND FINER
SCALE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ TO BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY /FRIDAY/.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN WITH
PERHAPS 0.10-0.25 BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. LOCALIZED...VERY HEAVY
RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES IN UNDER ONE HOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING
CELLS...OR STORMS BECOMING ANCHORED TO SOME OF THE FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO LG SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT
OFF LOW OVR THE MISS VALLY OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HIGH PWATS /NEARLY 2 INCHES AND PLUS 2-3
SIGMA/ AND INCREASING SWRLY LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO PA ON SATURDAY. THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
CONVECTION SAT PM. THE CHC OF CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS FLOW FLATTENS OUT...PA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL
PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION...AND MODELS
HINT AT THIS. TOUGH TO KEEP ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD DRY...BUT MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL NOT BE VERY WET EITHER...JUST A TOUGH PATTERN TO
PINPOINT SPECIFIC SHORTWAVES/WEAK FORCING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SE ACROSS THE GLAKES FOR FRIDAY...WITH POPS
AGAIN INCREASING BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED
FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS
MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH SAT/TUE/WED AS THE WARMEST DAYS
WHILE INCREASED CLOUDS TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON OTHER DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LITTLE FOG AT BFD...BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE.
NOT SEEING MUCH FOG...EVEN WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS. AIRMASS VERY
CLEAN...AND TEMPS QUITE HIGH STILL FOR THIS TIME OF MORNING.
THE PATTERN STAYS VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERHAPS
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE THE MTS CAN HELP WITH STORM INITIATION. OTHERWISE...THE BIG
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE EAST. WINDS
MORE SW NOW THAN WHAT WE HAD BACK EARLIER IN THE WEEK. NEED MORE
OF A SE WIND HERE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
150 PM MST FRI JUL 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY POSITION ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE DESERTS. A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE
FAVORABLE MONSOON PATTERN IS POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING IS DISSIPATING BUT CONTINUES TO RESULT
IN CONSIDERABLE CIN ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE AZ IN AN AREA
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES > 1000 J/KG. WV IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING FORCED BY AN INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA CIRCULATING AROUND THE AZ ANTICYCLONE.
HI-RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS OFFER A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS...THOUGH GIVEN WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW...THE SPC RAP AND U
OF A WRFS APPEAR TO PRESENT THE MOST PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME. FORECAST IS
BASED ON A SCENARIO IN WHICH INHIBITION REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE
PHOENIX AREA AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FAVORED ACROSS PINAL COUNTY
AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM KPHX
LENDS CREDENCE TO THIS...SHOWING A WARM LAYER NEAR 700 MB AND A
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 108 DEGREES...WHICH IS OUT OF REACH. MAIN
IMPACT ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA WILL AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH BLOWING DUST...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF QUEEN
CREEK.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES ITS TREK EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH THE
UPPER FLOW TAKING ON A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. CONSEQUENTLY...MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH MIXING
RATIOS DROPPING TO AROUND 7 G/KG SATURDAY AND 6 K/KG SUNDAY/MONDAY.
LIKEWISE...INSTABILITY ACROSS THE DESERTS IS VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT SAYING THE AREA WILL BE
COMPLETELY DEVOID OF STORMS /SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX/...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY LOOKS QUITE LOW. POPS WERE
ALREADY A FEW PERCENT BELOW CLIMO ACROSS THE DESERTS AND I WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. GUSTY/DUSTY OUTFLOWS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ON
SATURDAY BUT IT APPEARS EVEN THAT THREAT WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 00Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EUROPEAN INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
PVD WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND QUICKLY TURN THE FLOW AROUND TO A MORE FAVORABLE SE
DIRECTION...ALL WHILE ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. IF THE
EUROPEAN IS TO BE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE...THE MONSOON SHOULD BE WELL
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY GIVEN ITS MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PVD. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE BORDER. WHILE IT ADVECTS SOME
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...IT KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO EASTERN
ARIZONA AND SUGGESTS MORE OF A BLOWING DUST THREAT. LAST SUMMER THE
EUROPEAN WAS CONSISTENTLY TOO MOIST SO IM HESITANT TO BUY INTO IT
100 PERCENT...BUT I WILL SHOW HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PATTERN FROM BOTH MODELS. EVEN SE
CA COULD GET IN ON THE ACTION ONE OF THOSE DAYS WITH STRONG FLOW UP
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
TEMPS OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL TAKE A BRIEF RUN ABOVE THE 110 DEGREE
MARK THIS WEEKEND /COURTESY OF DRIER BL DEWPOINTS/...FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT DIP BACK TOWARD NORMAL AS INCREASED MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ARIZONA SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE FOR SOME VIRGA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT SKY HARBOR...AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA LAST NIGHT DRIFT
OVER THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST AS OUTFLOWS
FROM THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE VALLEY...WHICH WILL NOT BE INCLUDED
IN THE TAFS...FOR NOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING...BUT THEN ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME WESTERLY
BY LATE THIS MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ONLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS LIKELY WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS AT KIPL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WARMING TREND ENSUES SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME CONFINED TO JUST A FEW SPOTS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
TUESDAY AS A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SOME
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...AND BEGINS TO
IMPORT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ON SUNDAY DOWN INTO
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN
RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S BY THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DIRECTIONS FAVORING THE WEST.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
341 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Once again we have a large area of moderate to heavy rain with
embedded thunderstorms along the central to eastern Gulf coast,
although the primary axis of the activity is displaced a bit to the
west of the previous several days. The strongest RAP analyzed 850mb
moisture transport vectors are from the southeast from near buoy
42036, to near Cape San Blas, to southeast Alabama as of 18 UTC.
These are projected to focus in the western part of our area around
21 UTC before weakening into the evening. Therefore, we are
expecting rain to increase in our western zones over the next few
hours, with obvious concerns of additional rainfall exacerbating
flooding in Walton, Holmes, Bay, and Washington counties. More
scattered convection is expected to the east in a more unstable
environment. High-resolution models hint at a bit of a lull in the
evening again, with additional showers and storms redeveloping after
06 UTC in the western part of our area.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Saturday through Sunday Night]...
The upper level trof bringing the deep layer of SWrly flow of moist
Gulf air into the area will continue to lift NEward Saturday. This
will help weaken the pressure gradient aloft as well as further
decay the weak front to our west currently over Wrn MS. With the
anomalous pattern shifting, we`re adjusting closer to our normal
seabreeze pattern, especially over the Ern part of our forecast
area. Weak low pressure at lower levels in the Nrn GoMex will
continue to help with forcing for showers and thunderstorms,
bringing more rain to the area. As the low level forcing continues
to weaken, the intensity will not be as high as earlier this week.
Additionally, with 850-700mb flow, storms will continue to move
through more quickly (ex. today`s movement as opposed to Wed/Thurs
when storms would train over an area). CAM guidance is showing areas
of an additional 2-3" of rain is possible tomorrow over the Wrn half
of the forecast area, but if storms move quickly as expected the
rain will be distributed over a larger area. Flooding will still be
a concern as it takes time for basins to recede, especially after
the amount of rain we`ve seen. However, the threat of new additional
flooding is low.
The upper level pattern will continue to shift back to a less
amplified pattern Sunday, but weak low pressure over the Nrn Gulf
will continue the chances for potential rain in the areas that need
it the least. Similar to Saturday, the area will see still more rain
on Sunday, but not in the excessive amounts seen earlier this week,
so continued flooding will be an ongoing concern, but the threat of
new additional flooding will still be low.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
Weak ridging aloft and at the surface will begin to build Ewd as the
pattern deamplifies. Seasonal PoPs (around 40%) expected to take
over early next week. Around mid-week (Wed/Thurs), a weak UL trof
will swing through the Great Lakes region and a TUTT will be in the
Ern Gulf, which will create another disturbed pattern for our area.
Confidence is lower that far out in the run, but PoPs Thurs and Fri
around 40-50%. Temps will return to seasonal norms with highs in the
low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 18z Saturday] The main axis of tropical moisture has
shifted more to the west today but will still cause persistent rain
and low ceilings at ECP and DHN. ABY, VLD, and TLH will be at VFR;
however afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop from east
to west along the east coast sea breeze. These storms could produce
gusty winds and reduced visibilities to 1SM.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and waves are still slightly elevated over waters from
Ochlockonee River to Destin, so small craft should continue to
exercise caution through tomorrow morning. Winds and seas will
gradually fall over the weekend and should return to our
summertime norm by early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The flash flood threat continues across the western half of our
forecast area through Saturday evening, with the greatest threat
across the Florida Panhandle. Additional rainfall amounts of 2
to 3 inches are likely in the western half of watch area tomorrow,
but 3 to 5 inches are possible in the Panhandle.
On area rivers, the St. Marks near Newport has risen to moderate
flood stage, but appears to have crested. The Apalachicola River
at Blountstown is also forecast to rise to minor flood stage this
evening. The Aucilla River near Lamont is expected to reach minor
flood stage Saturday morning with a crest Sunday afternoon. The
Choctawhatchee River has crested just above minor flood stage at
Newton. At Caryville, the river should crest about a foot below
moderate flood stage Saturday night. Downstream at Bruce, the
river has risen to moderate flood stage and is forecast to
continue to rise to major flood stage by early next work week. The
Shoal River at Mossy Head has peaked at slightly above 14.1 ft
and has already fallen back below minor flood stage. As more rain
falls across the area, we will continue to monitor the area
rivers.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 86 72 90 71 / 50 60 30 40 20
Panama City 76 84 75 87 75 / 70 70 40 50 30
Dothan 71 83 71 88 71 / 70 70 40 60 30
Albany 72 87 72 90 72 / 60 50 30 50 30
Valdosta 72 88 70 90 71 / 40 50 30 30 20
Cross City 72 87 70 92 70 / 50 50 30 30 20
Apalachicola 78 85 75 86 75 / 70 70 40 40 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening for Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-
Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton-
Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Walsh/Gould
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Moore/Wool
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1208 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.UPDATE...SEA BREEZE IS STARTING TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF NE FLORIDA AND SE FLORIDA. PW VALUES OF 1.80 TO 1.90
INCHES EXIST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALOFT NEAR PALM BAY THIS LATE MORNING WITH 15Z RUC SHOWS THE VERY
SIMILAR POSITION OVER WESTERN OSCEOLA. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW
SPARSE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL COASTIES ALONG
RAPIDLY MOVING SEA-BREEZE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN
FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTTIES. CURRENT POPS REFLECT
THIS STRATIFIED RAIN CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST INITIALLY THIS MORNING IS
RAPIDLY PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST...WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS ONE GOES WEST OF A LINE FROM HILLIARD TO
CRESENT CITY. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAIN
EFFICIENT TSTMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW BEHIND THE SEABREEZE AT EACH
TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 20 TO
60 NAUTICAL MILE RANGE DUE TO HEIGHTENED WINDS AND SEAS. OFFSHORE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SEAS SUBSIDE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY-SAT DUE TO
ELEVATED SURF CONDS. SURF NEAR 2-3 FT OBSERVED YESTERDAY AND
SIMILAR HEIGHTS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 91 71 92 / 30 40 20 30
SSI 76 86 76 88 / 20 30 10 20
JAX 73 89 72 90 / 20 30 10 20
SGJ 75 87 76 88 / 20 30 10 20
GNV 71 91 71 91 / 30 40 30 30
OCF 72 92 72 92 / 40 40 30 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
CORDERO/ENYEDI/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
251 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL START OUT BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 18G28KT AS HAPPENED THURSDAY EVENING, THEN WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 10-12 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE
AND FLOWING CIRRUS IN THE 25 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES, I THINK THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO MINIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS OF THE RUC AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT LOWS
IN THIS RANGE. WINDS WILL HELP SLIGHTLY IN KEEPING THE
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
ON SATURDAY, IT LOOKS HOTTER AS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS BRING IN
THE +32C ISOTHERM AT 850MB AND +15C AIR AT 700MB INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A DOWNSLOPE
AFFECT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND HIGHER LAYERS WILL
KICK IN. EVEN THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS CEILINGS OVERHEAD,
MUCH OF THE CIRRUS WILL BE THIN AND NOT NEGATIVELY EFFECT SURFACE
WARMING. HIGHS AROUND 100F WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. OTHER AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WILL STILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 90S.
THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN BORDER
NEAR COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG
AND NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
ALSO THERE IS A WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
00Z SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ADD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A FEW STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE EXPAND OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUT ALSO TURN RELATIVELY FLAT AS IT ELONGATES
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAVE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS AT THE TAIL END OF THE WESTERLIES WITH JUST ENOUGH
CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW TO DEEPEN THE LEE TROUGH ALONG THE
KANSAS...COLORADO BORDER. IN ADDITION...A MODEST 60 KNOT UPPER JET
STREAK OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL AID IN PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT THEN STALLING NEAR THE
KANSAS...NEBRASKA BORDER BY EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL WARM
QUICKLY UNDER THIS REGIME AS 700 HPA TEMPERATURES ABOVE 14 C
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WITH A RESULTANT STRONG CAPPING ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER. NONETHELESS...BOTH SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING WILL SEE HIGHER BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH OR FARTHER WEST OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN REGIONS OF
COLORADO...MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR AT BEST SCATTERED AT TIMES WITH LOW
PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXISTING MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
283 BOTH EVENINGS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
MINIMAL AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND DO NOT SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS BUT INVERTED V PROFILES COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURE WISE...STRONG INSOLATION WILL
PERMIT MIXING UP 700 HPA WITH RESULTANT AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE A NEAR COPY OF SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE FLAT BUT ELONGATED
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
LEE TROUGH SITTING ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER WITH KANSAS. WITH
700 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND 14C AND MIXING UP TO THIS LEVEL
LIKELY...HIGHS AROUND 100 APPEAR POSSIBLE YET AGAIN. IN
ADDITION...SIMILAR TO BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF A
LIBERAL TO WAKEENEY LINE AS STORMS FORMING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO MOVE SLOWLY EAST.
TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BOTH AMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIP INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIALLY THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER 100+ DEGREE DAY OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SORE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS EXIST BEHIND THE FRONT BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH A DECENT
SETUP FOR A NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. NONETHELESS...THE RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK EAST INTO THE
PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING QUICKLY NORTH OF KANSAS.
THIS WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
HIGHS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXISTING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. A FEW
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 100-120 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE, AND PASSING
CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE 200-250 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL BE AROUND
TONIGHT. THE CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY GO BROKEN AFTER 14Z SATURDAY. THE
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 15G25KT RANGE WILL
SUBSIDE TO SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. WINDS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTH, AND GENERALLY IN THE
20G30KT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 100 70 100 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 69 100 69 99 / 10 10 20 10
EHA 68 98 70 97 / 10 20 20 20
LBL 66 100 70 100 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 69 100 71 102 / 10 10 10 10
P28 69 100 73 100 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
202 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL START OUT BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 18G28KT AS HAPPENED THURSDAY EVENING, THEN WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 100-120 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE AND
FLOWING CIRRUS IN THE 250 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES, I THINK THE TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL SLOWLY OVERNIGHT TO MINIMUMS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS OF THE RUC AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT LOWS IN THIS
RANGE. WINDS WILL HELP SLIGHTLY IN KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED.
ON SATURDAY, IT LOOKS HOTTER AS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS BRING IN
THE +32C ISOTHERM AT 850MB AND +15C AIR AT 700MB INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A DOWNSLOPE
AFFECT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND HIGHER LAYERS WILL
KICK IN. EVEN THROUGH THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS CEILINGS OVERHEAD,
MUCH OF THE CIRRUS WILL BE THIN AND NOT NEGATIVELY EFFECT SURFACE
WARMING. HIGHS AROUND 100F WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
HAYS. OTHER AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WILL STILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 90S.
THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL ENCROACH ON THE WESTERN BORDER
NEAR COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG
AND NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
ALSO THERE IS A WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
00Z SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ADD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A FEW STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
A RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
KANSAS REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THE 500MB HIGH
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO
BORDER REGION WITH A WEAK JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME FAIRLY FLAT GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO INTO OKLAHOMA AS ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
SUSTAINED LEE TROUGH FEATURE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE ZONAL
JET STREAM. NONE OF THESE FRONTAL SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHERN KANSAS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM IN THE
LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY ALONG THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AXIS (AND MORE LIKELY OVER
TERRAIN-FAVORED REGIONS OF COLORADO)...BUT THE OVERALL WEAK
MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PREVENT AN EASTWARD PUSH OF
CONVECTION FAR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE CONFINED ONLY TO FAR WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
A COLD FRONT PUSH LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGER PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL (AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
DAKOTAS ADJACENT CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION). SHOULD THE
FRONT PENETRATE KANSAS MID-WEEK...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INSTEAD OF THE LOW 100S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. A FEW
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 100-120 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE, AND PASSING
CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE 200-250 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL BE AROUND
TONIGHT. THE CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY GO BROKEN AFTER 14Z SATURDAY. THE
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 15G25KT RANGE WILL
SUBSIDE TO SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. WINDS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTH, AND GENERALLY IN THE
20G30KT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 100 70 100 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 69 100 69 99 / 10 10 20 10
EHA 68 98 70 97 / 10 20 20 20
LBL 66 100 70 100 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 69 100 71 102 / 10 10 10 10
P28 69 100 73 100 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
THE 05.00Z 250 HPA RAOB MAP SHOWED A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER AIR FLOW
PATTERN AS COMPARED TO THE 04.00Z RAOBS. BASICALLY, ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUED
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. MAGNITUDES WERE 70 KT (@72768) ON THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM WAS AROUND 115 KT
(@72645). @ 500 HPA, THE CENTER OF A 592 DM ANTICYCLONE WAS NEAR 72388.
FAIRLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -5 DEG C WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
SAID PRESSURE PERTURBATION. DOWNSTREAM, A BROAD TROF EXTENDED ROUGHLY
FROM 72440 TO 72645. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE -13 TO -14 DEG C RANGE.
AT 700 HPA, 2 DEGREES C OF WARMING WERE NOTED AT 72451 IN COMPARING
04.00Z AND 05.00Z RAOBS. SAME ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF WARMING WAS NOTED
AT 850 HPA FOR THE SAME UPPER AIR SITE. AT THE SFC, A LEE SURFACE TROF
WAS ANALYZED ACROSS SE COLORADO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTHWARD TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.0W @ 05.03Z AND TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N 100.0W @ 05.03Z
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THIS MORNING:
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING IS RATHER UNCOMPLICATED AND STRAIGHT FORWARD.
THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 05.00Z NAM
SHOWS SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION, KDDC WSR- 88D VAD PROFILE
SHOWS A STRENGTHENING 850 HPA LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH 05Z. FEEL THAT THE
HRRR IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF. THE NAM IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING CLOSER THE TROF MENTIONED IN THE
SYNOPSIS. AS A RESULT, WILL KEEP PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGE
POINTS AT OR BELOW 14 PERCENT DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF-ARW DO NOT SHOW ANYTHING EXCITING
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TODAY:
NEAR NEUTRAL 500 HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
AT THE SFC, A LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE
NET RESULT IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAYS SENSIBLE WEATHER
FOR TODAY... ERGO A FEW CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHER THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND IN THE MID 90S AS THE
850 HPA WARM PLUME ADVECTS FARTHER EAST. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
WARM TO HOT AND BREEZY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TODAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WHICH IS THE
MOST IDEAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT:
BY DUSK, WINDS SHOULD ABATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF MAGNITUDES 10-18 MPH IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL 05.00Z NAM RUN SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. THE NESTED 05.00Z 4 KM NAM KEEPS CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECTED CONVERGENCE
FARTHER WEST, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE POINTS
AT OR BELOW 14 PERCENT. EVEN TAKING THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE NAM AT
FACE VALUE, AN INSPECTION OF FORECAST SKEW T/LOG-P`S SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S DEG F.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
A RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
KANSAS REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THE 500MB HIGH
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO
BORDER REGION WITH A WEAK JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME FAIRLY FLAT GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO INTO OKLAHOMA AS ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
SUSTAINED LEE TROUGH FEATURE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE ZONAL
JET STREAM. NONE OF THESE FRONTAL SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHERN KANSAS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM IN THE
LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY ALONG THE LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE AXIS (AND MORE LIKELY OVER
TERRAIN-FAVORED REGIONS OF COLORADO)...BUT THE OVERALL WEAK
MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PREVENT AN EASTWARD PUSH OF
CONVECTION FAR INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE CONFINED ONLY TO FAR WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
A COLD FRONT PUSH LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGER PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL (AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
DAKOTAS ADJACENT CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION). SHOULD THE
FRONT PENETRATE KANSAS MID-WEEK...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INSTEAD OF THE LOW 100S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. A FEW
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 100-120 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE, AND PASSING
CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE 200-250 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL BE AROUND
TONIGHT. THE CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY GO BROKEN AFTER 14Z SATURDAY. THE
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 15G25KT RANGE WILL
SUBSIDE TO SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 00Z. WINDS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTH, AND GENERALLY IN THE
20G30KT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 96 68 100 70 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 97 69 100 69 / 10 10 10 20
EHA 97 68 98 70 / 10 10 20 20
LBL 97 66 100 70 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 97 69 100 71 / 10 10 10 10
P28 95 69 100 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HOVORKA_42
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
125 PM EDT FRI JUL 05 2013
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Updated the forecast to decrease PoPs a bit back in the western CWA
along with raising afternoon maximum temperatures slightly. We also
increased PoPs in the east where several rounds of moderate to heavy
showers are currently moving through. The heaviest precipitation
will be across the northern Bluegrass region over the next few hours
then a general decrease in coverage is expected. More showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible later this afternoon
if we can get some clearing.
An early look at the 05/12Z data suite continues to show a high
likelihood more heavy rainfall tonight and again Saturday night.
Given what`s already fallen plus the potential for another 2-4
inches through Sunday night, have opted to extend the Flash Flood
Warning through Sunday morning. We also expanded the watch slightly
on the western side as the latest data suggest that some heavier
rainfall will impact areas mainly along and east of the I-65
corridor.
Update issued at 1005 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Mostly cloudy conditions were noted across the service area this
morning. Not much change in the overall atmospheric structure was
noted this morning. We`re still in a squeeze game between ridges on
the US coasts, with an upper level low working out of the eastern
Plains. The flow pattern is producing deep fetch of tropical
moisture coming up from the Florida panhandle northward into the
central-eastern sections of the Ohio Valley.
For the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon hours, the
best chances for rainfall look to be along and east of a line from
near Bowling Green northeastward to near Shelbyville. The axis of
heaviest precipitation will probably set up along our SE counties
mainly along a line from Tompkinsville northeastward through
Lawrenceburg. This area of rain looks to move out early this
afternoon with somewhat of a lull in precipitation coverage this
afternoon. There is some data that suggest that we may see some
breaks in the cloud cover. If this occurs, we could tap into the
insolation and generate enough instability for some thunderstorms to
develop. With precipitable water values up above 1.75 inches,
combined with greater than 80% RH in the low-levels, and little
shear, these storms could train over areas which would result in a
continued flood threat. With this in mind, we plan on keeping the
Flash Flood Watch intact at this time.
We will be closely evaluating the new 12Z data suite as it comes in
later this morning and this afternoon. Our concerns focus on a
couple of mid-level waves that look to bring several more rounds of
showers and storms to the region. The first wave looks to roll in
during the overnight hours tonight. More diurnally driven storms
look likely for Saturday afternoon with another upper wave forecast
to come in Saturday night. Each of these waves will have the
ability to produce widespread convection along with the possibility
of thunderstorms which would be producing torrential rains given the
high atmospheric moisture content. The main forecast challenge will
be determining where the actual heavy precipitation axis will set
up. Overall, the models have not been too bad with the placements
thus far, and our current Flash Flood Watch covers the area at
highest risk for flooding. Current thinking is that if the 12Z
models continue to suggest the additional two waves of convection,
an extension of the watch out through Sunday looks very likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Not much change in the atmosphere during the short term, with the
region continuing to be squeezed between an upper trof to the west
and an upper ridge to the east. An impressive plume of deep
moisture will continue to stream from the Gulf of Mexico to the
Saint Lawrence Valley. As a result, widespread clouds and
occasional showers will dominate the short term forecast.
There really isn`t much model or WPC QPF support for flooding rains
today. Showers continue over the eastern third of the CWA early
this morning, as well depicted by the HRRR, with nothing much
upstream. The HRRR shows the current batch of showers exiting the
region early this morning followed by a lull in the action mid-late
morning. Cross-sections suggest we could see a few breaks in the
clouds this afternoon and some regeneration of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Despite the lack of solid model support for heavy
rain today, the fact remains that we still have an extremely juicy
atmosphere and a good set up for training. Any showers/storms that
do develop today will be capable of locally heavy downpours and
places that get hit repeatedly will certainly suffer some water
problems. So, after coordinating with neighboring offices, will go
ahead and keep most of the Flash Flood Watch. Will, however, shave
off the westernmost edge of the watch where rainfall amounts
yesterday were fairly moderate and FFG numbers are higher.
Tonight a coherent vort max is progged to move from south to north
across the area, resulting in widespread showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms, especially after midnight. As of right now, this
activity actually looks slightly more promising for heavy rains than
what we see today, though the main axis should be just slightly west
of where the most rain has fallen over the past 24 hours.
After another lull Saturday morning, additional development is
expected in the afternoon with some destabilization plus the
possibility of another wave moving through. Once again locally
heavy downpours will be possible.
Our high temperatures on the Fourth of July were more typical of
late April. With maybe a little less rain and a bit of partial
sunshine possible this afternoon will go a few degrees warmer than
yesterday for highs today but will still stay well below normal with
highs in the middle and upper 70s. The far west may touch 80. Lows
tonight will be in the middle and upper 60s, with highs on Saturday
not much different from what we see today.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Unsettled and frequently cloudy weather is expected for the latter
portion of the weekend. For the last several days, a massive Bermuda
high of near 600dm off the Virginia coast has blocked a sharp trough
aligned over the Lower Missouri Valley from moving east. This
pattern will finally break down early next week as zonal flow
becomes established over the northern tier of the country.
However, for Saturday night and for much of Sunday, this practically
cut-off 500mb low will still lie west of Louisville, only slowly
crossing southern Indiana by late Sunday. Through Sunday
afternoon, the Lower Ohio Valley will still lie under a plume of
tropical moisture extending north from the Gulf of Mexico. Expect
cloudy skies Saturday night through early Sunday with occasional
showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. Instability will stay
marginal for thunderstorms, but with PWATs just under 2 inches and
some lift associated with a jet overhead, some of these showers
could produce localized heavy rain. Rain chances may actually
diminish a bit towards Sunday evening as veering winds bring drier
air in from the west late in the day. Seasonably cool temperatures
in the lower 80s are expected Sunday afternoon, even with some
potential partial clearing late.
Summer returns Monday and Tuesday. Southwesterly flow will become
established as the aforementioned 500mb low weakens and scoots
across New England. By late Monday, the polar jet will have
retreated to north of the Great Lakes and weak flow aloft will
develop over the region as broad 500mb ridging spreads eastwards
from the southern Plains. Expect a warm humid regime Monday through
Wednesday. Our recent rains will augment already humid air, so each
overnight period will feel muggy. Afternoon high temperatures will
possibly approach 90 for this period.
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible each day, with
coverage likely the least on Monday. PWATs increase again Tuesday
and Wednesday to over 1.75 inches. This may allow individual
thunderstorms to produce localized heavy rains.
A shortwave across the upper Midwest late Wednesday will begin to
dig, eventually carving a trough over western New England by next
Friday. A cold front will approach southern Indiana early Thursday.
Gulf moisture pooling ahead of this boundary will aid in developing
possibly widespread convection late Wednesday into Thursday with the
possibility of localized heavy rainfall. Currently, our forecast has
high chances for Wednesday afternoon and overnight. However, we may
bring in likely chances in later forecasts once the front`s timing
becomes better known.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
A deep moisture plume coming in from the Gulf of Mexico combined
with a couple of mid-level disturbances will lead to several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms across the region. The timing and
coverage of these showers and storms makes this a low confidence TAF
forecast to say the least.
For this afternoon, we expect MVFR ceilings to continue through the
afternoon hours. Some improvement to VFR is possible at times, but
with low LCL`s in the area, feel that ceilings are going to be right
around the MVFR/VFR threshold. Scattered showers will be possible
at the terminals with KLEX and KBWG having the best shot at seeing
rainfall. Winds will remain out of the south at 4-7 knots.
The latest model solutions bring in another mid-level disturbance
tonight which should result in more widespread shower and possibly
some embedded thunderstorms. Current thinking is that convection
coverage will increase after 06/04Z and persist through the
remainder of the TAF period. A lull in the activity is possible by
mid-morning Saturday. The heavy rain tonight will probably push
ceilings down to the MVFR/IFR category with mainly MVFR vsbys. IFR
vsbys will be possible in the heavier showers that affect the
terminals.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Current Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of central
Kentucky through this evening. Rainfall across the region today may
be not be as widespread as we`ve seen in recent days. However, we
may see more thunderstorm activity this afternoon if breaks in the
clouds develop and tap into the diurnal instability that is forecast
to develop. The current data suite continues to show the potential
for two additional waves of shower and thunderstorm activity. The
first wave is forecast to move in during the overnight hours tonight
and then a secondary wave is very possible Saturday night and into
Sunday morning. These showers and storms will have access to a very
rich airmass with precipitable water values in the 1.8-2.0 inch
range and near complete saturation in the low-levels. This combined
with a low shear profile suggests that low-centroid, highly
efficient rainers with the potential for training. The latest
05/12Z guidance suggests that another 2-4 inches of rainfall will be
possible through Sunday morning as two upper level waves are
forecast to push through the region. Because of this, we have
expanded and extended the Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning.
We have also been looking at both the deterministic and ensemble QPF
and ensemble river forecast guidance for our larger rivers. At this
time, the data suggests that we may develop flooding problems on the
Green River, the Rolling Fork River, the Kentucky River, and the
Licking River basin through the upcoming weekend. We will be
closely evaluating the new suite of data and will be coordinating
with the OHRFC this afternoon. In looking back at the history books,
the last time we had flooding on the Rolling Fork at Boston, KY in
July was back in 1967. Just goes to show how anomalous this pattern
is for July.
Persons living near creeks, streams, and typical flood prone areas
should keep abreast of water levels and be prepared to take action
if water starts to rise or if warnings are issued.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ027>029-033>043-
045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
$$
Update...........MJ
Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........MJ
Hydrology........MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
101 PM EDT FRI JUL 05 2013
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Updated the forecast to decrease PoPs a bit back in the western CWA
along with raising afternoon maximum temperatures slightly. We also
increased PoPs in the east where several rounds of moderate to heavy
showers are currently moving through. The heaviest precipitation
will be across the northern Bluegrass region over the next few hours
then a general decrease in coverage is expected. More showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible later this afternoon
if we can get some clearing.
An early look at the 05/12Z data suite continues to show a high
likelihood more heavy rainfall tonight and again Saturday night.
Given what`s already fallen plus the potential for another 2-4
inches through Sunday night, have opted to extend the Flash Flood
Warning through Sunday morning. We also expanded the watch slightly
on the western side as the latest data suggest that some heavier
rainfall will impact areas mainly along and east of the I-65
corridor.
Update issued at 1005 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Mostly cloudy conditions were noted across the service area this
morning. Not much change in the overall atmospheric structure was
noted this morning. We`re still in a squeeze game between ridges on
the US coasts, with an upper level low working out of the eastern
Plains. The flow pattern is producing deep fetch of tropical
moisture coming up from the Florida panhandle northward into the
central-eastern sections of the Ohio Valley.
For the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon hours, the
best chances for rainfall look to be along and east of a line from
near Bowling Green northeastward to near Shelbyville. The axis of
heaviest precipitation will probably set up along our SE counties
mainly along a line from Tompkinsville northeastward through
Lawrenceburg. This area of rain looks to move out early this
afternoon with somewhat of a lull in precipitation coverage this
afternoon. There is some data that suggest that we may see some
breaks in the cloud cover. If this occurs, we could tap into the
insolation and generate enough instability for some thunderstorms to
develop. With precipitable water values up above 1.75 inches,
combined with greater than 80% RH in the low-levels, and little
shear, these storms could train over areas which would result in a
continued flood threat. With this in mind, we plan on keeping the
Flash Flood Watch intact at this time.
We will be closely evaluating the new 12Z data suite as it comes in
later this morning and this afternoon. Our concerns focus on a
couple of mid-level waves that look to bring several more rounds of
showers and storms to the region. The first wave looks to roll in
during the overnight hours tonight. More diurnally driven storms
look likely for Saturday afternoon with another upper wave forecast
to come in Saturday night. Each of these waves will have the
ability to produce widespread convection along with the possibility
of thunderstorms which would be producing torrential rains given the
high atmospheric moisture content. The main forecast challenge will
be determining where the actual heavy precipitation axis will set
up. Overall, the models have not been too bad with the placements
thus far, and our current Flash Flood Watch covers the area at
highest risk for flooding. Current thinking is that if the 12Z
models continue to suggest the additional two waves of convection,
an extension of the watch out through Sunday looks very likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Not much change in the atmosphere during the short term, with the
region continuing to be squeezed between an upper trof to the west
and an upper ridge to the east. An impressive plume of deep
moisture will continue to stream from the Gulf of Mexico to the
Saint Lawrence Valley. As a result, widespread clouds and
occasional showers will dominate the short term forecast.
There really isn`t much model or WPC QPF support for flooding rains
today. Showers continue over the eastern third of the CWA early
this morning, as well depicted by the HRRR, with nothing much
upstream. The HRRR shows the current batch of showers exiting the
region early this morning followed by a lull in the action mid-late
morning. Cross-sections suggest we could see a few breaks in the
clouds this afternoon and some regeneration of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Despite the lack of solid model support for heavy
rain today, the fact remains that we still have an extremely juicy
atmosphere and a good set up for training. Any showers/storms that
do develop today will be capable of locally heavy downpours and
places that get hit repeatedly will certainly suffer some water
problems. So, after coordinating with neighboring offices, will go
ahead and keep most of the Flash Flood Watch. Will, however, shave
off the westernmost edge of the watch where rainfall amounts
yesterday were fairly moderate and FFG numbers are higher.
Tonight a coherent vort max is progged to move from south to north
across the area, resulting in widespread showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms, especially after midnight. As of right now, this
activity actually looks slightly more promising for heavy rains than
what we see today, though the main axis should be just slightly west
of where the most rain has fallen over the past 24 hours.
After another lull Saturday morning, additional development is
expected in the afternoon with some destabilization plus the
possibility of another wave moving through. Once again locally
heavy downpours will be possible.
Our high temperatures on the Fourth of July were more typical of
late April. With maybe a little less rain and a bit of partial
sunshine possible this afternoon will go a few degrees warmer than
yesterday for highs today but will still stay well below normal with
highs in the middle and upper 70s. The far west may touch 80. Lows
tonight will be in the middle and upper 60s, with highs on Saturday
not much different from what we see today.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Unsettled and frequently cloudy weather is expected for the latter
portion of the weekend. For the last several days, a massive Bermuda
high of near 600dm off the Virginia coast has blocked a sharp trough
aligned over the Lower Missouri Valley from moving east. This
pattern will finally break down early next week as zonal flow
becomes established over the northern tier of the country.
However, for Saturday night and for much of Sunday, this practically
cut-off 500mb low will still lie west of Louisville, only slowly
crossing southern Indiana by late Sunday. Through Sunday
afternoon, the Lower Ohio Valley will still lie under a plume of
tropical moisture extending north from the Gulf of Mexico. Expect
cloudy skies Saturday night through early Sunday with occasional
showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. Instability will stay
marginal for thunderstorms, but with PWATs just under 2 inches and
some lift associated with a jet overhead, some of these showers
could produce localized heavy rain. Rain chances may actually
diminish a bit towards Sunday evening as veering winds bring drier
air in from the west late in the day. Seasonably cool temperatures
in the lower 80s are expected Sunday afternoon, even with some
potential partial clearing late.
Summer returns Monday and Tuesday. Southwesterly flow will become
established as the aforementioned 500mb low weakens and scoots
across New England. By late Monday, the polar jet will have
retreated to north of the Great Lakes and weak flow aloft will
develop over the region as broad 500mb ridging spreads eastwards
from the southern Plains. Expect a warm humid regime Monday through
Wednesday. Our recent rains will augment already humid air, so each
overnight period will feel muggy. Afternoon high temperatures will
possibly approach 90 for this period.
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible each day, with
coverage likely the least on Monday. PWATs increase again Tuesday
and Wednesday to over 1.75 inches. This may allow individual
thunderstorms to produce localized heavy rains.
A shortwave across the upper Midwest late Wednesday will begin to
dig, eventually carving a trough over western New England by next
Friday. A cold front will approach southern Indiana early Thursday.
Gulf moisture pooling ahead of this boundary will aid in developing
possibly widespread convection late Wednesday into Thursday with the
possibility of localized heavy rainfall. Currently, our forecast has
high chances for Wednesday afternoon and overnight. However, we may
bring in likely chances in later forecasts once the front`s timing
becomes better known.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
The deep moisture plume coming from the Gulf of Mexico will continue
through today and tonight, leading to a very moist atmosphere and a
low confidence TAF package.
Low ceilings are the primary concern this morning. Ceilings around
the MVFR/IFR border have been coming and going. It is currently
felt that these ceilings will likely prevail early this morning.
Will then gradually allow those ceilings to lift, reaching low VFR
this afternoon.
Showers will be possible just about any time through the TAF
period. LEX will stand the best chance of the most consistent
rain. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well, primarily this
afternoon. The best chances tonight appear to be during the
overnight hours as a weak upper wave moves through.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2013
Current Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of central
Kentucky through this evening. Rainfall across the region today may
be not be as widespread as we`ve seen in recent days. However, we
may see more thunderstorm activity this afternoon if breaks in the
clouds develop and tap into the diurnal instability that is forecast
to develop. The current data suite continues to show the potential
for two additional waves of shower and thunderstorm activity. The
first wave is forecast to move in during the overnight hours tonight
and then a secondary wave is very possible Saturday night and into
Sunday morning. These showers and storms will have access to a very
rich airmass with precipitable water values in the 1.8-2.0 inch
range and near complete saturation in the low-levels. This combined
with a low shear profile suggests that low-centroid, highly
efficient rainers with the potential for training. The latest
05/12Z guidance suggests that another 2-4 inches of rainfall will be
possible through Sunday morning as two upper level waves are
forecast to push through the region. Because of this, we have
expanded and extended the Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning.
We have also been looking at both the deterministic and ensemble QPF
and ensemble river forecast guidance for our larger rivers. At this
time, the data suggests that we may develop flooding problems on the
Green River, the Rolling Fork River, the Kentucky River, and the
Licking River basin through the upcoming weekend. We will be
closely evaluating the new suite of data and will be coordinating
with the OHRFC this afternoon. In looking back at the history books,
the last time we had flooding on the Rolling Fork at Boston, KY in
July was back in 1967. Just goes to show how anomalous this pattern
is for July.
Persons living near creeks, streams, and typical flood prone areas
should keep abreast of water levels and be prepared to take action
if water starts to rise or if warnings are issued.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ027>029-033>043-
045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
$$
Update...........MJ
Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........13
Hydrology........MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
142 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS NOW NEARLY CUTOFF
FROM THE MAIN WEST-EAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
WILL SHEAR OUT AND SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...AREA IS UNDER A RIDGE FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LED TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW YESTERDAY AND
IT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO A
STATIONARY TROUGH SETUP IN WESTERN ONTARIO TO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL THE DRY AIR SEEN ON
THE 00Z KMPX SOUNDING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND WILL LEAD TO A NICE
AND WARM SUMMER DAY. MIXING TO 850MB TEMPS OF 17C OVER THE WESTERN
CWA AND 15C OVER THE EAST WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
OVER THE WEST AND THE MID 80S OVER THE EAST. THE COOLEST VALUES WILL
BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE VALUES
IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE WEST AND THE TRADITIONAL
WARM RAWS SITES. THESE VALUES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR SEEN UPSTREAM IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA YESTERDAY.
NAM/HRRR/RAP SHOWING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EAST. THE HRRR AND ONE OF OUR LOCAL RAP
INITIALIZED WRF-ARW RUNS EVEN DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MID
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN BREEZE BOUNDARY. WITH ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ABOVE THAT CU...WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. OTHERWISE...WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL AID MIXING INTO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ALSO
MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS. HIGHEST CORE OF WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHERE GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. AS
FOR DEWPOINTS...ML VALUES FROM THE MODELS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA (MATCHES VALUES SEEN UPSTREAM YESTERDAY). THIS
PRODUCES MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE WEST AND
UPPER 30S OVER THE EAST. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 5-6 DAYS...SUPPORTS
ISSUING A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL STATEMENT OVER THE WEST HALF EVEN
THOUGH THEY HAVE HAD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30
DAYS. SINCE COORDINATION WAS PERFORMED YESTERDAY WITH THE DNR...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE IT THIS MORNING.
AS FOR CONDITIONS UPSTREAM THAT WILL INFLUENCE TONIGHT/S
FORECAST...THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH LIMITED WESTWARD PUSH TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH TODAY AND STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL THE EVENING
AND MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE GIVES IT A PUSH TO
THE EAST. A COUPLE MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT IN NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD MOVE NE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES WEST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING (LARGELY BROAD AND WEAK OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH THE BEST IN ONTARIO) AND JUST THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LOW TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCES POPS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES REACHING THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE DIMINISHING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXITING NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT MID CLOUDS TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE
WEST HALF BY DAYBREAK AND THE EAST WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP DURING THE NIGHT...THINK LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE LOW 60S EAST AND MID-UPPER 60S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SATURDAY...A MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS WHILE A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY TOWARD IN/OH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN
ONTARIO WILL PUSH A FRONT TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL
RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1K J/KG OVER THE CNTRL AND WEST.
SINCE THE FORCING WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
THE AREA IN THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...ONLY LOWER END POPS WERE
INCLUDED OVER THE NW HALF.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE ZONAL PATTERN CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE THE SHRTWV IS LOW. PWAT VALUES TO AROUND
1.75 INCH WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LCLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE MAIN
HAZARD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CWA. IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER DEVELOP...AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AROUND 1K J/KG
SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH THE FRONT AND LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
WEAK/MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONGER/SVR STORMS.
MON...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDAY S EXPECTED TO SAG TO
THE SOUTH OF UPPER MI...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WEAK SHRTWVS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THAT COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PCPN KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
TUE-THU...THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY WED.
QVECTOR CONV AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY FROM TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. A RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED BY THU WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AT ALL SITES
THIS EVENING...THOUGH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
WIND SPEED SHEAR FOR IWD AND CMX OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WEST TO EAST TOWARD
IWD AND CMX BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR SAW...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR ALL SITES...ANY SHOWERS THAT FORM
COULD CONTAIN SOME LIGHTNING TOWARD THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR S-SW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALMOST DOWN TO THE WATER. ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGER WINDS SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
HIGHER PLATFORMS. DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AT BAY
TODAY...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
LAKE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS LOW AND KEEP
WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
402 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER BAND OF THEM TO THE WEST. THE
BAND TO THE WEST WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE VARYING METHODS OF HOW
THEY HANDLE THE WAVE TONIGHT. THE NAM AND THE HRRR BOTH BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
GFS AND THE 4KM WRF REMAIN DRY. HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SOME OF THE
SHOWERS THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST. IT IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS. EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE.
ON SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK COLD FRONT ON THE HIGH PLAINS
DRIFTS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE NAM
AND THE 4KM WRF DEVELOP SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER THEY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST WITH THE FRONT SO EXPECT THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW REGIME SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE JET STREAM FLOWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF OUR COUNTRY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW
AND UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE AT
LEAST NEAR NORMAL TO LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL MOST DAYS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BIGGER SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF US
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING FROM WEAKER
FORCED EVENTS SUCH AS MINOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WIND SHIFT
TROUGHS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR CONVECTION THAT FORMS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT COULD WORK INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND RAIN EVENTS WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST BUT IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR RAIN I
WOULD NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP TOO MUCH AS THESE ARE ALL LOW END WEAKLY
FORCED EVENTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 90S WITH MAYBE SEVERAL 100 DEGREE DAYS ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES BUILD IN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY IT COULD LEAD TO A VERY HOT START TO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REMAIN VFR. SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
117 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP SOUTHERLY WINDS AS A WARM
FRONT RETREATS ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE ONGOING
SHOWERS...RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN NEB...ERN WY
AND SWRN SD WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST TODAY AFFECTING NRN
NEB ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 FOR THE MOST PART. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES
COULD RISE INTO THE MID 90S WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 80S...PERHAPS COOLER DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF THE
RAIN WHICH MOST MODELS SHOW DECAYING IN THE STABLE NERN QUADRANT
OF THE H500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH THE STRONG HEATING. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED
AS DEW POINTS AT THE SFC REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP GIVEN THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. STILL ELEVATED STORMS MIGHT PRODUCE
STRONG OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE BIG NEWS IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING AROUND 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES LATELY...BUT WILL INCREASE TO
OVER 1.25 INCHES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IS 1.08 INCHES...SO THIS WEEKENDS PWATS WILL BE IN
THE 75TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY...WITH A MORE
ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW EXPECTED.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. CAPE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG IN
THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR RUNNING MAINLY AROUND
30 KTS WITH THE NW APPROACHING 40 KTS. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...THE FRONT MAKES SOME PROGRESS SOUTH...FOCUSING THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS
INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME ACTIVITY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WYOMING AND INTO NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. CAPES
WILL GENERALLY RUN 1500-2500 J/KG...WITH THE BEST DEEP SHEAR IN THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 40 KTS YIELDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NORTH TO
NEAR 100 SOUTH ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT TO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 90S ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTH.
NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS EARLY
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PWATS STAY RATHER HIGH THROUGH MID WEEK...
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN...AS NO LIGHTNING STRIKES SEEN YET. AS
THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO WARM...MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
AND SHOULD GET SOME ISOLD THUNDER TO MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS.
COULD SEE SOME MINOR IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINAL SITES...HOWEVER DID
NOT INCLUDE THUNDER YET. MORE ROBUST SHOWERS ACROSS NW NEB HAVE
LED TO A TEMP GROUP FOR KVTN...WHILE VCSH WAS INCLUDED FOR KLBF.
AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...THEN
DECREASE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20
KTS...OTHERWISE 13 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH FUEL STATUS IS NEGATIVE FOR FIRE GROWTH...ONE WILD FIRE
DEVELOPED NEAR ROSCOE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTING FUELS MAY BE
FAVORABLE IN SOME AREAS. THE AREA CONCERN FOR WILD FIRES IS WHERE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND THIS WOULD BE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT FCST
TO BE ALONG OR NEAR HIGHWAY 20. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
201 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THIS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT
THERE WILL BE FREQUENT RAINFREE PERIODS AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH ABOUT
40 KTS OF SHEAR OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY...ENOUGH FOR
SOME WEAK SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES. EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS A 60 KT 500MB JET PASSES OVERHEAD PER LATEST
AMDAR DATA AND RAP ANALYSIS...WITH STRONGEST STORMS MOVING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS LESS SHEAR AND
STABILITY FURTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE/NW PA...SO EXPECT
A LOWER THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY. AN
ISOLATED THREAT CONTINUES FOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF
DAYTIME HEATING LEFT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
TRAINING CELLS.
LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO CONVECTION AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DAYTIME HEATING
WANES. WILL FORECAST A LULL IN RAIN POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
ON SATURDAY...WILL AGAIN HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS
THE BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FORCE A PLUME OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW A BIT MORE OUT OF THE WEST
INSTEAD OF SW...EXPECT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE SUPPRESSED A BIT TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO TODAY/FRIDAY...WITH RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND INTO THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A MID
LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES KEEPING A FEED OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO FLOWING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES WILL PROPAGATE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SUPPORT
ENHANCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THIS
WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WHICH IN GENERAL WILL
SUPPORT BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH LESSER COVERAGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
SATURDAY EVENING MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ONE OR TWO WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL AGAIN CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE.
BY SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO
OPEN UP AND RE-ENGAGE WITH THE WESTERLIES. THIS WILL SPREAD HEIGHT
FALLS AND DPVA INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NY WITH SOME HELP FROM THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. SUNDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE HEADWAY EAST AND APPROACH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
NIGHT DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
PWAT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AT TIMES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
ASSOCIATED ISOLATED FLOOD RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING OCCURS ALONG ANY OF THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES.
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IN SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THE LONG TERM AS THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EVOLVES. A ZONAL
PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WHICH IN TIME
WILL FORCE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALSO WEAKEN A LITTLE AND MOVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE...ENDING THE SOUTHERLY PUMP OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THE OLD
MIDWEST CUTOFF LOW WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY TUESDAY A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND PROVIDE A MUCH NEEDED MAINLY DRY DAY.
BY WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL IMPROVE BY
THURSDAY WITH A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...SOME PROMISE IS SEEN FOR A MORE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYING LATER NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE GETS FORCED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A TROUGH
DIGS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WOULD PUT OUR REGION ON THE DRIER AND
LESS HUMID SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH LOWER RH DAYS GIVING SOILS A
CHANCE TO DRY OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST
AIR WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING IN THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY HEAD NE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT A LULL IN ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
RENEWED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN TIER BY ABOUT 18Z
SATURDAY.
WHILE MAINLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED...ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORM COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR OR IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY....MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP
WIND AND WAVES WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
PASSING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THIS WEEKEND...BUT SCA CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED INTO EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG A WARROAD TO WAHPETON LINE. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT...WHERE DEW
POINTS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AROUND 1000 J/KG. 0 TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR IS NIL SO WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT GOING BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN THE FAR EAST AHEAD
OF FRONT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN MT HAS NOW
CROSSED INTO FAR NWRN ND AND SOUTHEASTERN SASK. OVERALL NAM HAS
BEST HANDLE ON SD ACTIVITY WHILE HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON BOTH
CLUSTERS. WILL USE HRRR AS GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM AND A MODEL
BLEND FOR BEYOND 06Z. GEM AND SOMEWHAT THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO
TARGET NORTHERN VALLEY FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW WHILE AMERICAN
MODELS FURTHER SOUTH...THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY/MODEL
BLEND WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TOMORROW BUT MOVING THINGS
OUT QUICKER ON SAT NIGHT.
TONIGHT...CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SD PROGGED TO BE INTO SWRN ZONES
AROUND 00Z. DID INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS RANSOM/SARGENT/RICHLAND
COUNTIES EARLY EVENING AND NW ZONES AFT 06Z. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON
EASTWARD ACTIVITY OF THIS BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO PETER OUT.
SATURDAY...AS PREVIOUSLY STATED..MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
TRACK OF SFC LOW TOMORROW WITH THE GEM FURTHEST NORTH. MODELS DO
SHOW BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
CAPES IN THE 1K TO 2K J/KG BALL PARK. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
ON EXACT PLACEMENT TO INCREASE TO LIKELIES BUT THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VALLEY ARE LOOKING LIKE THE BEST PROBABILITY AS INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDS UP INTO FGF CWA. 40 KTS OF SHEAR WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH...SUPPORTING SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA.
SAT NIGHT...BEGAN DECREASING POPS BY 06Z AS ALL MODELS DO PULL
SYSTEM OUT OF ND IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SUNDAY WILL BE SEE SOME SFC RIDING EXTEND INTO AREA FROM LOW OVER
SASK/MB. NW FLOW WILL BRING SOME MORE SEASONAL TEMPS...GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S.
MAIN 500 MB RIDGE FLATTENS AND SPREADS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUTTING OUR AREA IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS/12Z EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA MOVING IN LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THEN NEXT SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN...THICKEST FROM FARGO
NORTHWEST TOWARD BAUDETTE. THREW IN TEMPO BKN CIGS AT BJI AT 3K FT
FOR THIS AS THICKER BAND MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. PRETTY LIGHT
WIND SPEEDS WITH A MORE NORTHWEST OR NORTH WIND IN ERN ND AND
EXTREME NW MN TO A MORE SOUTHWEST WIND IN WCNTRL MN INTO BEMIDJI
AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVE....THEN EXPECT INCREASING HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
WINDS TURNING EAST-SOUTHEAST NR 10 KTS SATURDAY MORNING. DID THROW
IN CHC OF SHOWER IN DVL 15Z SATURDAY IN CASE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IN
WRN ND MAKES IT THAT FAR EAST. DVL HAS BEST CHC...MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN AT OTHER SITES THRU 18Z TO INCLUDE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1219 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW
FLATTENS THIS WEEK...BUT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE BULK OF TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH IS - VERY WARM TO TO HOT...WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY /SFC DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 65-70F/.
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING MINIMAL LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
PA...AS SHOWERS OVER W PA WEAKEN AS THEY DRIFT INTO NW MTNS. BUT
HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE 4KM NAM...AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
TARGET THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
TSRA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING BKN LINE
BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z AND 04Z. SURFACE HEATING WILL HELP ISO STORMS
POP BEFORE THAT THOUGH.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT AIR OF NEARLY 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN
PENN...ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD DUMP VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2
INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
LARGE SCALE...DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS ON THE
NW EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE REGION NEAR...AND
TO THE SE OF INTERSTATE 81 RAIN-FREE DURING THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...AROUND 80F ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...TO AROUND 90F IN THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE /WITH ITS ORIGIN FROM THE
PACIFIC...GOMEX...CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC/ AND WESTERN PORTION OF
THE RING OF FIRE WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE HEADWAY EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO SATURDAY...SO EXPECTED BROAD-SCALE CONDITIONS /AND
FINER SCALE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING/
TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY /FRIDAY/.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN WITH
PERHAPS 0.10-0.25 BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. LOCALIZED...VERY HEAVY
RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES IN UNDER ONE HOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING
CELLS...OR STORMS BECOMING ANCHORED TO SOME OF THE FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO LG SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT
OFF LOW OVR THE MISS VALLY OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HIGH PWATS /NEARLY 2 INCHES AND PLUS 2-3
SIGMA/ AND INCREASING SWRLY LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO PA ON SATURDAY. THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
CONVECTION SAT PM. THE CHC OF CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS FLOW FLATTENS OUT...PA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL
PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING OF FIRE CONVECTION...AND MODELS
HINT AT THIS. TOUGH TO KEEP ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD DRY...BUT MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL NOT BE VERY WET EITHER...JUST A TOUGH PATTERN TO
PINPOINT SPECIFIC SHORTWAVES/WEAK FORCING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SE ACROSS THE GLAKES FOR FRIDAY...WITH POPS
AGAIN INCREASING BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED
FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS
MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH SAT/TUE/WED AS THE WARMEST DAYS
WHILE INCREASED CLOUDS TEMPER HIGHS A BIT ON OTHER DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SCT CONVECTION WILL BRING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS TO MAINLY
WESTERN TAFS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME FOG/HAZE LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN LOWER SUSQ AS HUMID CONDITIONS
PERSIST UNDER INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HIGH.
THE PATTERN STAYS VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PERHAPS
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY IN THE NW...WHERE THE MTS CAN
HELP WITH STORM INITIATION. OTHERWISE...THE BIG UPPER RIDGE WILL
HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE EAST. WINDS MORE SW NOW THAN
WHAT WE HAD BACK EARLIER IN THE WEEK. NEED MORE OF A SE WIND HERE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1259 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM LAWRENCEBURG NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA INTO KENTUCKY AROUND LAKE CUMBERLAND.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE
GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING POOR
FLYING WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND HERE IN THE MID
STATE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013/
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS STREAMING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
IS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A TAD.
ALSO...12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE WITH A PWAT OF 1.81 INCHES. THUS LIGHTNING WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED TSTORM MENTION TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE.
12Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWING A BLOSSOMING OF
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH INCHES CLOSER TO US. MODELS ALSO SHOW ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID STATE IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA
RECEIVED BETWEEN 1.5 AND 5.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WHICH
HAS LOWERED FFG VALUES BELOW 1 INCH/HR FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HPC
QPF INDICATES AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND...WHILE RAW GFS/NAM QPF OUTPUT IS EVEN HIGHER ALTHOUGH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS SKEWING THEIR OUTPUT. EVEN SO...WITH
GROUNDS SATURATED FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD RESULT IN FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR ALL THESE
REASONS HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013/
SEEING A LULL IN THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID STATE AT THIS TIME.
THIS WILL GIVE RIVERS AND CREEKS A CHANCE TO DO THEIR JOB IN
CARRYING OFF THE WATER THAT FELL YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. THINK WE
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS OF THE MID STATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY COVER
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MID STATE BY MID AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...CEILING FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN VFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IMPACTS TAF SITES. FOR BRIEFNESS 05/12Z-05/18Z...WILL GO WITH
PREVAILING CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATIONS POSSIBLE. BELIEVE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL 05/20Z-06/00Z...BUT MODERATE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSISTS THRU 06/10Z PER HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES. EXPECT A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS AFTER 06/00Z WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT OVERALL LIGHT SLY FLOW THRU 06/12Z
WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSTMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013/
STRONG BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN
UNUSUALLY STRONG MID SUMMER TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR. DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. AT THE SFC...A
WEAKENING N-S STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
GULF NE THROUGH MS AND WESTERN TN.
CURRENTLY...A BRIEF LULL IN THE WET PATTERN IS INDICATED. 850 MB
FLOW IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BUT THE DEGREE OF SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
OVERDONE. UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR WEST TO EXPAND ON ANY
UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THE KEY CATALYST WOULD
NEED TO BE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THE BETTER DISTURBANCES HAVE SHIFTED NORTH
FOR NOW.
FOR TODAY...AIRMASS WILL NEED A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING TO GET THE
CONVECTION GOING. BUT BY AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN
WITH ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS COMING INTO PLAY. THUS...THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
NOW...AS FAR AS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE SO FAR BUT SCATTERED AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED MUCH MORE. LATEST FFG SUGGEST THAT ONLY AN INCH OR SO
OF RAINFALL IN THE 1-3 HR PERIOD MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. IT DOES
EXPIRE FRIDAY EVENING(THIS UPCOMING EVENING). WILL ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT TO DECIDE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THE WATCH.
OTHERWISE...THUS FAR...THE MODELS HAVE TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM. THUS...WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE HPC QPF ESTIMATIONS FOR THE QPF GRIDS.
AS WE GO FORWARD IN TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD
WITH THE AXIS CROSSING THE MID STATE ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BE AT THIS
POINT THAT OUR POPS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...WITH THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. VERSUS THE MAV GUIDANCE...A SLIGHT UNDERCUT OF MAX
VALUES WILL BE INCLUDED.
IN THE EXT FCST...ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...WE WILL
REVERT MORE TOWARD A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BOTH WEAKEN. THE
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS WILL STILL ALLOW
CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES TO CONTINUE...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST.
AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE EXT PERIOD...WEAK TROUGHING/NW FLOW
WILL RETURN WITH POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS INCHING UPWARD ONCE AGAIN.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES WILL LOOK VERY SEASONAL AS A WEAK W-E
RIDGE PREVAILS AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGE FROM 18C-20C. VERSUS THE
MEX...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT UNDERCUT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ007>011-026>034-
059>066-075-077>080-094-095.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1124 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS STREAMING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
IS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A TAD.
ALSO...12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE WITH A PWAT OF 1.81 INCHES. THUS LIGHTNING WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED TSTORM MENTION TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE.
12Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWING A BLOSSOMING OF
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH INCHES CLOSER TO US. MODELS ALSO SHOW ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID STATE IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA
RECEIVED BETWEEN 1.5 AND 5.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WHICH
HAS LOWERED FFG VALUES BELOW 1 INCH/HR FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HPC
QPF INDICATES AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND...WHILE RAW GFS/NAM QPF OUTPUT IS EVEN HIGHER ALTHOUGH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS SKEWING THEIR OUTPUT. EVEN SO...WITH
GROUNDS SATURATED FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD RESULT IN FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR ALL THESE
REASONS HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013/
SEEING A LULL IN THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID STATE AT THIS TIME.
THIS WILL GIVE RIVERS AND CREEKS A CHANCE TO DO THEIR JOB IN
CARRYING OFF THE WATER THAT FELL YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. THINK WE
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS OF THE MID STATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY COVER
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MID STATE BY MID AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...CEILING FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN VFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IMPACTS TAF SITES. FOR BRIEFNESS 05/12Z-05/18Z...WILL GO WITH
PREVAILING CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATIONS POSSIBLE. BELIEVE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL 05/20Z-06/00Z...BUT MODERATE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSISTS THRU 06/10Z PER HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES. EXPECT A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS AFTER 06/00Z WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT OVERALL LIGHT SLY FLOW THRU 06/12Z
WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSTMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013/
STRONG BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN
UNUSUALLY STRONG MID SUMMER TROUGH OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR. DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. AT THE SFC...A
WEAKENING N-S STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
GULF NE THROUGH MS AND WESTERN TN.
CURRENTLY...A BRIEF LULL IN THE WET PATTERN IS INDICATED. 850 MB
FLOW IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BUT THE DEGREE OF SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
OVERDONE. UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR WEST TO EXPAND ON ANY
UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THE KEY CATALYST WOULD
NEED TO BE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THE BETTER DISTURBANCES HAVE SHIFTED NORTH
FOR NOW.
FOR TODAY...AIRMASS WILL NEED A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING TO GET THE
CONVECTION GOING. BUT BY AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN
WITH ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS COMING INTO PLAY. THUS...THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
NOW...AS FAR AS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE SO FAR BUT SCATTERED AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED MUCH MORE. LATEST FFG SUGGEST THAT ONLY AN INCH OR SO
OF RAINFALL IN THE 1-3 HR PERIOD MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. IT DOES
EXPIRE FRIDAY EVENING(THIS UPCOMING EVENING). WILL ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT TO DECIDE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THE WATCH.
OTHERWISE...THUS FAR...THE MODELS HAVE TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM. THUS...WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE HPC QPF ESTIMATIONS FOR THE QPF GRIDS.
AS WE GO FORWARD IN TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD
WITH THE AXIS CROSSING THE MID STATE ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BE AT THIS
POINT THAT OUR POPS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...WITH THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. VERSUS THE MAV GUIDANCE...A SLIGHT UNDERCUT OF MAX
VALUES WILL BE INCLUDED.
IN THE EXT FCST...ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...WE WILL
REVERT MORE TOWARD A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BOTH WEAKEN. THE
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS WILL STILL ALLOW
CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES TO CONTINUE...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST.
AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE EXT PERIOD...WEAK TROUGHING/NW FLOW
WILL RETURN WITH POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS INCHING UPWARD ONCE AGAIN.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES WILL LOOK VERY SEASONAL AS A WEAK W-E
RIDGE PREVAILS AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGE FROM 18C-20C. VERSUS THE
MEX...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT UNDERCUT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ007>011-026>034-
059>066-075-077>080-094-095.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER LESS EXTENSIVE THAN YESTERDAY BUT IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE OVER THE SW ZONES. LEANED TOWARD THE RAP WHICH SHOWS SOME
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE SW ZONES. ADDED
VCSH FOR KLBX FOR THIS AFTN BUT OTHERWISE KEPT PCPN OUT OF THE
TAFS. EXPECTING THE SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND SO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS FOR LATER THIS AFTN. MORE OF AN EAST WIND EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013/
UPDATE...
ANTICIPATING A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY...PARTIALLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACHIEVING THE AVERAGE MIDDLE 90S.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES WITH THE BEST THERMODYNAMICS AND
FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR HUGGING THE COASTLINE AND POINTS OFFSHORE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION (PRIMARILY
EARLY DAY SHOWERS) WILL FOCUS ON THE SLOWLY INLAND-ADVANCING SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY. ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 90S
THERE WILL BE MORE AREAWIDE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS AFFECTING
FURTHER INLAND COMMUNITIES. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SE TX SO WINDS ARE
CALM WITH SOME LIGHT SE WINDS OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED SO SEEING TEMPS DROP CLOSER TO DEWPOINT TEMPS THIS
MORNING RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN RURAL AREAS. WATER VAPOR
AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW OVER UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY
AND ITS TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING DOWN INTO SE TX. THIS MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK SEA BREEZE MAY BE THE MAIN
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INCREASING BUT STILL
BORDERLINE FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. THINK 20 POPS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR TODAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY. THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE AND SOME DRY AIR WHICH WILL SUPPORT
STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. COULD SEE A SEVERE DOWNBURTS OCCUR WITH ANY
OF THESE COLLAPSING STORMS.
UPPER LOW SHOULD THEN TRACK EAST INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SATURDAY
WITH STILL AN OVERALL WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW STRETCHING
TOWARDS THE NW GULF. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RIVER SHOULD SHIFT WEST
DURING THIS TIME SO THINK DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY. FOR NOW 20/30 POPS LOOK GOOD WITH
HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST.
FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE CHALLENGING FOR SUN/MON TIME FRAME.
MODELS STILL HINT AT A TROPICAL WAVE OR EVEN A WEAK DEPRESSION
FORMING IN THE W GULF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS MORE AND MORE
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE UPPER TX
COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. SO HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 50/60
PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND ALONG THE
COAST. GFS/NAM BRING PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.3 INCHES
WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY OR CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THIS SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND DECIDED TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THINK HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT WILL BEGIN 12Z SUN AND GO THROUGH 12Z MON. SHOULD
THIS MATERIALIZE THINK ANY FLOODING THREAT WILL BE MORE IN URBAN
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE AS GROUNDS ARE STILL VERY DRY AND CAN
HOLD QUITE A BIT OF RUNOFF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TOUGH TO
DETERMINE BUT THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST. GIVEN THAT MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE...COULD SEE A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS OF 5 INCHES ESPECIALLY IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA. THEN THERE IS THE QUESTION OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BUT WIND SHEAR
LOOKS TOO STRONG AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REALLY DO NOT
DECREASE MUCH INTO SUN MORNING SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR A
TROPICAL SYSTEM TO FORM. THE NAM STILL WANTS TO CLOSE OFF A
CIRCULATION BUT GFS/ECMWF KEEP IT AS AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE. AT
THIS TIME THINK A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT.
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY SO HELD ONTO 40/50 POPS FOR MONDAY AND 30 POPS FOR
TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE PLAINS
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT NEVER REALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
A TUTT LOW WAY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC UNDERCUTS THE BERMUDA RIDGE
AND WORKS INTO FLORIDA TUE/WED TIME FRAME. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CARRY
20 POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS ON THE SEA BREEZE BUT
POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE MORE COVERAGE THAN JUST ISOLATED STORMS.
39
MARINE...
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO BEFORE DRIFTING TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND WITH WINDSPEEDS
INCREASING ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR REMAINS RATHER STRONG ACROSS THE GULF THE NAM
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO DEVELOP WE
WOULD SEE STRONGER WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
COASTAL RESIDENTS AND PERSONS WITH MARINE INTERESTS ARE URGED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. HAVE INCREASED SEAS FOR SUNDAY AS STRONGER WINDS WILL
DRIVE THEM UP SLIGHTLY WHETHER A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS OR NOW.
TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
EAST WINDS INCREASE. BEACHGOERS SHOULD ALSO STAY ALERT FOR RIP
CURRENTS OVER THE WEEKEND AS INCREASING EAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RIP CURRENTS TO DEVELOP. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 72 96 75 91 / 20 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 96 73 94 77 89 / 20 10 20 30 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 78 90 80 87 / 20 20 30 50 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
322 PM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPING
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITHIN THIS MOISTURE
PLUME AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH BLENDED AMSU-SSM/I
PWATS ANALYZED TO BE AROUND 1 INCH. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND FURTHER HEATING DESTABILIZES
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z SHOWS WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAP FORECAST MAINTAINING SHEAR
OF ABOUT 35 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SO STORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A FEW PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ALL IN ALL...SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINS
WILL FALL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THE DEEPEST OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING AT PWATS TO BE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH FROM WEST TO EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THEN EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT STALLS
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOULD SEE WEAK SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A CLAP
OF THUNDER DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MORNING. A BROADER
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN ADDITION TO WITHIN
THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. BULK SHEAR WILL BE ABOUT 10
KT HIGHER TOMORROW THAN TODAY SO COULD SEE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGER HAIL. STILL NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE HOWEVER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST...MORESO
AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013
A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WITH THE FASTER WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN STATES. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT PACIFIC MOISTURE
AS WELL AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME. SCATTERED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY
AND 0-6KM SHEAR (SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND 30-40 KT RESPECTIVELY)
WILL BE ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE BLACK
HILLS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SO THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON TO KIMBALL. HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES (0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES) WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING STORMS.
TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THAT TIME...LIMITING THE CONVECTION
TO ISOLATED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY...
HIGHER INSTABILITY TRIES TO ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TSTORMS. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND MID
LEVEL CAP SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
THIS MAY ADVECT SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE CWA FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES DURING
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...
WITH GENERALLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS FURTHER EAST. A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
PLENTIFUL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS SEEING SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RJM