Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/04/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR AN VERY ACTIVE EVENING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STORMS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK IN SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SPOT ON WHERE CONVECTION
WOULD BE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY AFTER 12 NOON SLOWLY PUSHED TO THE SSW
AND THEN WEAKENED. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
NM COUNTIES OF CATRON...CIBOLA AND MCKINLEY HAS ALSO BE SPOT ON BY
THE HRRR. 12Z WRF NAM/GFS ALONG WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE DEVELOPING
A LINE OF STORMS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL NM STORMS AND MERGING THEM
WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NAVAJO/APACHE COUNTIES. HRRR ALONG WITH 12Z UOFA WRF NAM AND GFS
RUNS ARE PUSHING A VERY STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OFF THE RIM AND
MOVING IT SSW ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WITH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
BLOWING DUST. MAY EVENTUALLY END UP WITH EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX. STAY TUNED.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.10"-1.30" RANGE FROM TUCSON
EAST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HAD
INITIALLY THOUGHT ABOUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN AREAS BUT HELD
OFF FOR NOW DUE TO FASTER MOVEMENT OF STORMS. MODELS SUGGESTING THAT
AFTER THE INITIAL SET OF STORMS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAY SEE
A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCE ALOFT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. IN COORDINATION
WITH AZ NWS OFFICES...HAVE UPPED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
REFLECT POSSIBILITY FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS.
WEDNESDAY ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. WITH EXPECTED
ACTIVE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HAVE GONE WITH IDEA OF DOWN
AFTERNOON PERIOD...THEN A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG UPPER HIGH...CENTERED NEAR BOISE THIS MORNING...WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEK WITH CENTER OF HIGH THE STATE ON THURSDAY
AND THEN BE EAST OF THE STATE BY THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP LOW END
MONSOON FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...LIMITED CLOUDS THRU 23Z FEW-SCT100 SCT-BKN250 WITH LIGHT
N TO NW WIND. CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BECMG SCT-BKN080
BKN120 00Z-06Z. SCT TSTMS OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AT 21Z WILL
MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTH THRU 04Z. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG SOUTHERLY MOVING GUST FRONTS THIS EVENING. SKIES CLEARING
AFT 06Z BECMG FEW-SCT100 SCT250 BY 12Z. WIND BECMG NORMAL TERRAIN
DRIVEN AFT 06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS. CERNIGLIA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE RIM THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WITH THE INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET AND SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
SOUTHERLY MOVING GUST FRONTS. THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN THE 60-80% RANGE MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ISOLATED WEST
TO SCATTERED EAST MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT SHOULD SPREAD TO NEARBY VALLEY AREAS. STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE WET. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY GOOD
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. CERNIGLIA
&&
.CLIMATE...THE TRIPLE DIGIT STREAK HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TUCSON WHEN
THE AIRPORT HIT 100 DEGREES AT 2:07 PM MST. THIS IS TIED FOR THE
FIFTH LONGEST STREAK ON RECORD...TIED WITH 1942 /JUNE 13 TO JULY 14/.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
917 PM MST MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA AND MOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THESE STORMS PRODUCED MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE...BUT ONE STRONG CELL
RESULTED IN DAMAGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF TOWN NEAR IRONWOOD HILL AND
GREASEWOOD WHERE POWER POLES WENT DOWN.
ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GREENLEE
COUNTY AND MOVED INTO THE GILA RIVER VALLEY. SHERIFFS OFFICIALS
REPORTED A STORAGE CONTAINER WAS LIFTED AND STRUCK A GAS MAIN IN
GRAHAM COUNTY NEAR SAFFORD.
MORE RECENTLY A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY AND MOVED SOUTHWEST HUGGING THE EAST SIDE
OF THE RINCON MOUNTAINS AND MOVED OVER INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN THE
COCHISE COUNTY LINE AND VAIL. RADAR INDICATED WINDS OF 58 KNOTS AT
AROUND 1800 FEET JUST NORTH OF I-10...SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR THAT AREA.
CURRENTLY THIS CELL HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WITH JUST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TUCSON METRO
AND ANOTHER BATCH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RINCONS AGAIN...BUT IN NW
COCHISE COUNTY.
THE LATEST HRRR AND U OF A WRF NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW AND A COUPLE OF IMPULSES
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO CONTINUE TO SPARK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
INHERITED POP GRIDS/FORECASTS HAS ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...SO THIS LOOKS GOOD.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT TEMPS AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z...
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA/-SHRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MOVEMENT WILL
GENERALLY BE NE-SW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THRU EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. ANOTHER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED EAST MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
STORMS WILL BE HEAVIEST IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD SPREAD TO
SOME VALLEY AREAS. STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION THRU WED. UPPER HIGH IS THEN
PROGGED TO MOVE SWD INTO ARIZONA BY SAT. AS WITH PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS...THERE WERE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE 01/12Z GFS/ECMWF
PARTICULARLY REGARDING QPF/S. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 01/12Z ECMWF WAS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH DEPICTING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
QPF/S DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS
CONTINUITY...HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD PARTICULARLY WED EVENING AND
AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
ASSUMING AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WED EVENING... THUR MAY
HAVE SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUN-MON. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL JUSTIFY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM TUCSON EWD WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY.
DAYTIME TEMPS TUE AND CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BF/MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
217 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT TODAY....RESULTING IN SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BY
WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR
WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A
GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING...
AS OF 1PM A WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS N TIER OF FCA...REST
OF FCA LOW STRATUS IS GIVING WAY TO BKN STRATO CU...WITH INCRG
BREAKS IN CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND
HAVE ADJUST A NOTCH UPWARD.
MORNING SOUNDING ONLY HAD A CAPE OF 359...BUT NO CIN. PWAT WAS
1.96 AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING MDL
CAPES INCRG TO 500-1500 J/KG. FAVORED AREAS ARE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF FCA.
ON BIG PICTURE EASTERN SEABOARD BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IN MISSISSIPPI VLY. TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDS FM CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE SEABOARD TO FCA. EXPECT TODAY`S
CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN SCT-BKN IN WM SECTOR AND ALONG AND WEST OF
WMFNT. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEST OF YSTDAY AS
SFC FRONT IS ALSO WEST. NAM/LOCAL WRF/GFS SUPPORT THIS...HWVR
YESTERDAYS WINNER THE HRRR HAS STORMS FIRING IN SAME PLACES AS
YSTDY...HOPEFULLY ITS THE OUTLIER. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
WRF IS PLACING THE CONVECTION BEST AND ITS WEST OF YSTDYS POSITIONS.
WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE AFTN. OTRW ACTIVITY IS SCT...AND A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NE FM EPA/NNJ AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF ALB. THESE ARE HANDLED BY LOCAL WFO
WRF ATTM WELL.
TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...-SHRA
ACTIVITY IS BCMG DIURNAL AND MOST TAPERS OFF DURING THE LATE
EVENING. OTHERWISE BERMUDA HIGH AT ALL LEVELS CONTINUES TO
RETROGRADE TWRD THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...AND
THE TROF RETROGRADES WESTWARD AS WELL. IN ADDITIONS THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND...AS THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
CHANGES...IT WILL DECREASE IN NW FCA TNGT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A
MUGGY AND VERY WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE WX REGIME OVER EASTERN NA AND BY EXTENSION
THE FCA...RETROGRADES WESTWARD. THE WMFNT MOVES FM OTTAWA VALLEY
AND E GRTLKS TO MI AND IN. AT 500HPA AND THE SFC THE BERMUDA HIGH
BACKS ONTO THE SEABOARD REACHING THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST.
HWVR THE ONE FEATURE THAT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION IS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. IT REMAINS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT ERODES WITH DRYING FM THE WEST WED AND WED NT. AND
THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD THU INTO FRI WITH THE REST OF THE PATTERN AS
ITS SOURCE BCMS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WITH RICH MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER FCA...AND BERMUDA HIGH PUMPING
HEAT INTO RGN...OUT WEATHER WILL SHIFT FROM MUGGY AND WARM WITH
FREQUENT -SHRA/SCT TSTMS TO VARIABLE SUN AND CLOUDS...MUGGY AND HOT
AS TEMPS TREND WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S. NIGHT TIME LOWS
WILL BE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MAINLY AFTN
TSTMS. CAPES WED WILL REACH 500-1500 J/KG...1000-2000 J/KG THU AND
1000-1500 FRI. HWVR 500HPA TEMPS WILL BE ARND -8C WED...-7C THU
AND -6C ALMOST CAPPED BY FRI.
THESE STORMS WILL BE FEWER IN COVERAGE...THEY WILL BE
STRONGER...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY PULES AND SUB SEVERE AS HGHTS ARE
RISING AND THE BULK OF THE JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL WEST OF FCA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AS IT RIDGES WESTWARD INTO THE CONUS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY /OR A BIT MORE ZONAL/ TO OPEN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK SFC TROUGHS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TIMED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SUSTAINED RELIEF FROM
THE MUGGY WEATHER PRIOR TO MONDAY...AS HAZY...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LESS THAN THIS PAST WEEK...BUT STILL NO FULLY DRY DAYS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL OF ERN AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE S/SW WITH
H850 TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS H850 TEMPS OF +17C TO
+19C WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO GET INTO M80S TO NEAR
90F IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. SFC
DEWPTS WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S TO L70S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1.50 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD SHRIVEL WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A STICKY NIGHT WILL SET UP WITH LOWS IN U50S TO L60S OVER THE
MTNS...AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70F IN THE VALLEYS.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH SAGS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH SOME MINOR
COLD ADVECTION AT H850 WITH TEMPS FALLING SLIGHTLY TO +16C TO +17C.
SOME VERY MINOR DRYING WILL KNOCK THE SFC DEWPTS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LOWER TO M60S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND PERHAPS U50S TO L60S
OVER THE NW ZONES. THE BETTER CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH AN ISOLD THREAT ELSEWHERE.
THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
TROUGH...BUT LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE SRN
DACKS TO U60S TO L70S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR FORECAST LEANS CLOSE TO THE HPC AND LATEST
ECMWF GUIDANCE HERE THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE W/NW
WITH STILL A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS...BUT THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT. THE GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD POP UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS IN THE +17C TO +19C RANGE WITH A WESTERLY
BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70F WILL BE COMMON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO APPROACH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT TODAY....RESULTING IN SHOWERS SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BY WEDNESDAY
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE
WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A
GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BKN025-045 OUTSIDE OF SCT-BKN SHRA AND TSTMS.
LOCALIZED MVFR/IN SHRA AND TSTMS INTO THE EVENING.
CONDS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY TO IFR/LIFR DURING THE EVENING IN AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 0 KTS...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TNGT.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...VFR/MVFR. SLIGHT CHC/CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS
END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
106 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT TODAY....RESULTING IN SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BY
WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR
WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A
GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING...
AS OF 1PM A WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS N TIER OF FCA...REST
OF FCA LOW STRATUS IS GIVING WAY TO BKN STRATO CU...WITH INCRG
BREAKS IN CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND
HAVE ADJUST A NOTCH UPWARD.
MORNING SOUNDING ONLY HAD A CAPE OF 359...BUT NO CIN. PWAT WAS
1.96 AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING MDL
CAPES INCRG TO 500-1500 J/KG. FAVORED AREAS ARE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF FCA.
ON BIG PICTURE EASTERN SEABOARD BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IN MISSISSIPPI VLY. TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDS FM CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE SEABOARD TO FCA. EXPECT TODAY`S
CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN SCT-BKN IN WM SECTOR AND ALONG AND WEST OF
WMFNT. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEST OF YSTDAY AS
SFC FRONT IS ALSO WEST. NAM/LOCAL WRF/GFS SUPPORT THIS...HWVR
YESTERDAYS WINNER THE HRRR HAS STORMS FIRING IN SAME PLACES AS
YSTDY...HOPEFULLY ITS THE OUTLIER. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
WRF IS PLACING THE CONVECTION BEST AND ITS WEST OF YSTDYS POSITIONS.
WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE AFTN. OTRW ACTIVITY IS SCT...AND A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NE FM EPA/NNJ AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF ALB. THESE ARE HANDLED BY LOCAL WFO
WRF ATTM WELL.
TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...-SHRA
ACTIVITY IS BCMG DIURNAL AND MOST TAPERS OFF DURING THE LATE
EVENING. OTHERWISE BERMUDA HIGH AT ALL LEVELS CONTINUES TO
RETROGRADE TWRD THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...AND
THE TROF RETROGRADES WESTWARD AS WELL. IN ADDITIONS THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND...AS THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
CHANGES...IT WILL DECREASE IN NW FCA TNGT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A
MUGGY AND VERY WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WHICH HINGES ON HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR OUR EAST
WORKING WESTWARD AND PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...ALTHOUGH PCPN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS ORGANIZED AS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY STARTS TO NOSE
BACK INTO FA ALTHOUGH FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACRS ERN GRTLKS RGN
AND IS CLOSE ENOUGH SUCH THAT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLY ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN AND WRN PTN OF FA
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ON THU AFT REACH 1000-2000
J/KG SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS PSBL ALTHOUGH DUE TO SLIGHT CHC
COVERAGE WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY
TO BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AS IT RIDGES WESTWARD INTO THE CONUS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY /OR A BIT MORE ZONAL/ TO OPEN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK SFC TROUGHS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TIMED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SUSTAINED RELIEF FROM
THE MUGGY WEATHER PRIOR TO MONDAY...AS HAZY...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LESS THAN THIS PAST WEEK...BUT STILL NO FULLY DRY DAYS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL OF ERN AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE S/SW WITH
H850 TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS H850 TEMPS OF +17C TO
+19C WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO GET INTO M80S TO NEAR
90F IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. SFC
DEWPTS WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S TO L70S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1.50 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD SHRIVEL WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A STICKY NIGHT WILL SET UP WITH LOWS IN U50S TO L60S OVER THE
MTNS...AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70F IN THE VALLEYS.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH SAGS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH SOME MINOR
COLD ADVECTION AT H850 WITH TEMPS FALLING SLIGHTLY TO +16C TO +17C.
SOME VERY MINOR DRYING WILL KNOCK THE SFC DEWPTS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LOWER TO M60S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND PERHAPS U50S TO L60S
OVER THE NW ZONES. THE BETTER CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH AN ISOLD THREAT ELSEWHERE.
THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
TROUGH...BUT LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE SRN
DACKS TO U60S TO L70S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR FORECAST LEANS CLOSE TO THE HPC AND LATEST
ECMWF GUIDANCE HERE THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE W/NW
WITH STILL A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS...BUT THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT. THE GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD POP UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS IN THE +17C TO +19C RANGE WITH A WESTERLY
BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70F WILL BE COMMON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO APPROACH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT TODAY....RESULTING IN SHOWERS SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BY WEDNESDAY
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE
WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A
GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BKN025-045 OUTSIDE OF SCT-BKN SHRA AND TSTMS.
LOCALIZED MVFR/IN SHRA AND TSTMS INTO THE EVENING.
CONDS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY TO IFR/LIFR DURING THE EVENING IN AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 0 KTS...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TNGT.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...VFR/MVFR. SLIGHT CHC/CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS
END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 1230 AM THE WMFNT CONTINUES TO FOCUSING SHRA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY HAV DECREASED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THESE SHRA WILL LIFT SLOWLY N AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT....BCMG SCT
-SHRA. ATTM HRRR CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE SITUATION WELL.
IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS TUESDAY. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED...MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO RENEWED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS.
TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT REMAIN AND
MAINTAIN THREAT OF WAA SURGES (OVERRUNNING) OF SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN
ASSOC WITH WMFNT/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE
BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD.
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL
AT.
WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL
PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O
INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS
WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY
AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY
THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP.
NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS.
LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE
SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE EFP MAJOR W ATLC ANTICYCLONE AT SFC AND 500HPA (KNOWN
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH) RETROGRADES TO THE ATLC SEABOARD..AS THE
500HPA TROF RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS.
THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FCA FRI...THE GFS
SHIFTS IT OUT OF THE FCA FOR THE WEEKEND AND BACK MONDAY. THE GEM
DISPLACES IT FURTHER N AND W TO W PERIPHERY...AND ECMWF HAS IT
DRIFTING IN AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE VARIABLE SUNSHINE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH CHC MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS. THE THREAT WILL
BE LEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S TO ARND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND. DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL YIELD CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. VSBYS MAY REMAIN IN
THE MVFR LEVELS...WITH CIGS IN THE LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS AT KALB AND KGFL.
THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TO HIGH MVFR/VFR LEVELS UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY PM. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT MAY YIELD SOME SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBABILITY
IS LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS /AROUND 30 PERCENT/...SO IT HAS NOT BEEN
ADDED TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SHOWERS OR STARTED IN TH 18Z-21Z RANGE WHERE CONFIDENCE
WAS THE GREATEST.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 00Z/WED IN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT...VFR/MVFR. SLIGHT CHC/CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1234 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 1230 AM THE WMFNT CONTINUES TO FOCUSING SHRA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY HAV DECREASED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THESE SHRA WILL LIFT SLOWLY N AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT....BCMG SCT
-SHRA. ATTM HRRR CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE SITUATION WELL.
IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS TUESDAY. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED...MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO RENEWED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS.
TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT REMAIN AND
MAINTAIN THREAT OF WAA SURGES (OVERRUNNING) OF SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN
ASSOC WITH WMFNT/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE
BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD.
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL
AT.
WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL
PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O
INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS
WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY
AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY
THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP.
NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS.
LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE
SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE EFP MAJOR W ATLC ANTICYCLONE AT SFC AND 500HPA (KNOWN
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH) RETROGRADES TO THE ATLC SEABOARD..AS THE
500HPA TROF RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS.
THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FCA FRI...THE GFS
SHIFTS IT OUT OF THE FCA FOR THE WEEKEND AND BACK MONDAY. THE GEM
DISPLACES IT FURTHER N AND W TO W PERIPHERY...AND ECMWF HAS IT
DRIFTING IN AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE VARIABLE SUNSHINE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH CHC MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS. THE THREAT WILL
BE LEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S TO ARND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS EVENING GENERALLY MVR CONDS WITH CIGS OVC015-030 AND VSBY
3-5SM IN RA+ AND BR IN NUMEROUS SHRA+. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL ENSUE IN FG
AND SCT -SHRA WITH AREAS IFR BLO 1SM FG AND OVC008.
TUE MRNG...CIGS WILL RETURN MAINLY MVFR W/BKN-OVC020-030 WITH
VSBY P6SM ...SCT-BKN CIGS OVC015 VSBY 3SM -SHRA/TSTMS
SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-SAT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES TO APPROACH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE HRRR (AND LAST COSPA WE LOOKED AT) CONTINUES TO HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION. ITS ABOUT AN HOUR SLOW AND WE HAVE
USED THE SUBSEQUENT HOUR FOR THIS UPDATE. ITS EMPHASIS ON SERN CWA
IS HOLDING. RADAR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING FASTER FORWARD MOTION
THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS PLUS THE CURRENT SERN EMPHASIS IN
GENERAL IS PASSING OVER LOCALES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN AS HARD HIT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. SO IN THE NEAR TERM WE HAVE UPPED THE POPS SE
AND LOWERED THEM NW BEFORE SEGUEING TOWARD THE LATTER AREA LATER
THIS EVENING.
THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST...COURTESY OF A STAGNANT MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. POP-UP SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A VORT MAX MOVES NORTH
FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES STILL OVER 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WHEREVER
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THEN AFTER THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES OUT...VERY HUMID
AIR COUPLED WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED TO POPULATE TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BUILDING THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHOWERS
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MORNING...AND THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...A TREND TO LOWER POPS WILL
COMMENCE. ANY MORNING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MID-MORNING
HOURS AND THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM EARLIER THINKING WITH REGARDS TO
THE LONGER TERM PART OF THE FCST. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
ATLANTIC THAT HAS PUMPED THE WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE
PAST WEEK WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST. WE WILL KEEP THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...SO EXCEPT FOR SCT
AFTERNOON TSTMS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE. POPS IN THE
CURRENT FCST WERE NOT CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM EARLIER FCST...SINCE
THEY LOOKED GOOD WITH RESPECT TO THE MORE RECENT 12Z MODEL RUNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM THU RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
MODERATE TO HIGH...SO WE MAY EVENTUALLY REACH LEVELS WHERE HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BECOME NECESSARY...PROBABLY THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE
SOME MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW CONCERNING THE HEAT.
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE...FAVORING THE WEST/NORTHWEST ZONES. PCPN IN THOSE AREAS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE...WHILE POPS FURTHER SOUTH/EAST WILL
EITHER BE DRY OR SLGT CHC.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CIGS WERE IN THE VFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S...A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING NORTH FROM VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...MVFR CONDITIONS (OR
WORSE) ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED
AT ALL OUR TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT MAY NEED
TO MAKE LAST MINUTE CHANGES BASED ON WHERE THE PRECIPITATION
ACTUALLY TRACKS. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...AND A WEAK WIND...FOG IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE LONGER TERM WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORT PERIODS OF SUB-SVR
DURING THE TSTMS. PATCHY A.M. FOG MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS TOO.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY 009 HAVE NOW DROPPED BELOW 5 FEET. THE SCA HAS
THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED SOUTH OF CAPE MAY...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT
ALONG THE NJ COAST WHERE SEAS ARE STILL 5 FEET PLUS. ALTHOUGH THE
SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10Z WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD
IT CAN BE DROPPED EARLIER THAN THAT. S TO SWLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. ONCE THE SEAS DROP BELOW 5 FEET TONIGHT...NO
FLAGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE
INTO THE LONG TERM. SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS/SEAS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
843 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.UPDATE...
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. WHILE THE THE MESO-SCALE
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THAT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST OVER NIGHT ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE. THE MESO-SCALE MODELS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THE GULF COAST...INCLUDING NAPLES...OVER NIGHT AND IS
INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS SPARSE BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INDICATED REGION WIDE IN THE FORECAST OVER NIGHT.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013/
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS HAS PUSHED MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO THE GULF. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOW DOWN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN
SOUTHEASTERLY EXCEPT AROUND HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
WINDS ARE ERRATIC.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
FOR THE EAST COAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOW
FOR THE EAST COAST THROUGH 00Z...SO DROPPED POPS BACK TO 20
PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE FLOW IS DEEPER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND THIS WILL NOT ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
TRAIN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD LIKE THEY HAVE THE PAST
FEW DAYS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY TRAIN ACROSS
COLLIER COUNTY SO FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPOTTED BY THE TOWER AT NAPLES
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES...AND THESE WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST THIS
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FOURTH OF JULY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIVE IN DRIER MID LEVEL AIR BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP ONE HALF INCH TO
AROUND 1.6 INCHES. HOWEVER...SHALLOW STREAMER SHOWERS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST OVER THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS OR CUBA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
EASTERN SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THIS WILL ALSO HAMPER SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY AFTER THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST.
THERE WILL STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO SURGE BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EAST. A
BRIEF WIND AND MOISTURE SURGE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM EAST
TO WEST ON SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO ROTATE SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD AROUND THE MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND BE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL MERGE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AS THEY BOTH TRAVEL
WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UPPER LOW...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS NOT GIVING IT ENOUGH TIME TO CLOSE
OFF. HOWEVER...THESE FEATURES NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THEY CAN
SOMETIMES DEVELOP. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE WESTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED WITH THE GFS...SO RAINFALL
CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES.
MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY BECOME LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH
DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 87 78 88 / 40 30 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 80 89 / 40 30 30 50
MIAMI 78 88 79 89 / 40 30 30 60
NAPLES 74 89 74 91 / 50 50 40 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS HAS PUSHED MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO THE GULF. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOW DOWN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN
SOUTHEASTERLY EXCEPT AROUND HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
WINDS ARE ERRATIC.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
FOR THE EAST COAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOW
FOR THE EAST COAST THROUGH 00Z...SO DROPPED POPS BACK TO 20
PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE FLOW IS DEEPER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND THIS WILL NOT ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
TRAIN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD LIKE THEY HAVE THE PAST
FEW DAYS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY TRAIN ACROSS
COLLIER COUNTY SO FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPOTTED BY THE TOWER AT NAPLES
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES...AND THESE WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST THIS
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FOURTH OF JULY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIVE IN DRIER MID LEVEL AIR BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP ONE HALF INCH TO
AROUND 1.6 INCHES. HOWEVER...SHALLOW STREAMER SHOWERS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST OVER THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS OR CUBA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
EASTERN SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THIS WILL ALSO HAMPER SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY AFTER THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST.
THERE WILL STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO SURGE BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EAST. A
BRIEF WIND AND MOISTURE SURGE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM EAST
TO WEST ON SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO ROTATE SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD AROUND THE MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND BE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL MERGE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AS THEY BOTH TRAVEL
WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UPPER LOW...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS NOT GIVING IT ENOUGH TIME TO CLOSE
OFF. HOWEVER...THESE FEATURES NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THEY CAN
SOMETIMES DEVELOP. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE WESTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED WITH THE GFS...SO RAINFALL
CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES.
MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY BECOME LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH
DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 87 78 88 / 30 30 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 88 80 89 / 30 30 30 50
MIAMI 78 88 79 89 / 40 30 30 60
NAPLES 74 89 74 91 / 40 50 40 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...AK
AVIATION/RADAR...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STUBBORN AND
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF
A HUGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A DEEP DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
OVER MUCH OF THE EAST. TROUGHS ARE GENERALLY NOT SUPPOSED TO BE THIS
AMPLIFIED AND DEEP DURING THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER...AND ITS NO WONDER
WE HAVE SEEN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINY WEATHER. WE ARE IN NO WAY
DONE WITH THIS RAINY WEATHER QUITE YET...BUT THE WORST APPEARS TO BE
OVER AND THERE IS SUNLIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL (PUN INTENDED)
LATER IN THE WEEK. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE FL PENINSULA. 02/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE CONFIRMS JUST HOW
MUCH MOISTURE THERE IS WITH AN ALMOST SATURATED COLUMN AND
IMPRESSIVE PW VALUE OF AROUND 2.3". A PW VALUE OF THIS LEVEL IS
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF PAST OBSERVED VALUES FOR EARLY JULY.
OUTSIDE OF THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE TROUGH AIDING THE
LIFT PROCESS...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE FEATURE HAS BEEN
WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SE GULF OF MEXICO AND LIKELY
FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
BECOME MORE STRETCHED/SHEARED OUT WITH TIME AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD
TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION HELPING TO BRING OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND MORE
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. REGIONAL RADARS ARE STILL ACTIVE WITH
SCT-NMRS SHOWERS RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH. AS OF 5AM THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE TREND FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY)...
TODAY...
YET ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE WILL BE SLOWLY STARTING TO LOSE
THE SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT WE ARE STILL LEFT WITH
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND NOTHING TO REALLY SUPPRESS THE
CONVECTION. SO WITH SOME LIMITED SYNOPTIC SUPPORT STILL AROUND AND
THE THE FAVORABLE COLUMN FOR CONVECTION WOULD EXPECT A HIGH COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. THE OVERALL TEMPORAL DURATION OF RAINFALL
TODAY IS LIKELY TO NOT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS DAYS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. FORECAST GRIDS STILL SHOW LIKELY POPS AREA-WIDE AND THE RISK
OF TRAINING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS A
CONCERN. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
DUE TO THIS CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
BY TONIGHT THE REAL EMPHASIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MORE LIKELY JUST OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE SYNOPTIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORCED EVER FURTHER WEST INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR...WE MAY SEE A
GENERALLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD AFTER ANY LINGERING EVENING PURELY
INSTABILITY SHOWERS CAN DISSIPATE.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
STARTING TO BUILD/RETROGRADE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH
ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE AND THIS FAVORABLE COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SO ONCE AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA IS UNDER LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THE TEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY
RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SUNNY
BREAKS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BEGIN TO
CREEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK UP.
4TH OF JULY...
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THIS WEEK THAT STARTS TO RESEMBLE A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER FORECAST. THE MAIN SUPPRESSION FROM THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...OUR MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL START TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ANTI-CYCLONIC IN NATURE AND
THIS WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE.
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH WILL FEATURE A GENERALLY QUIET MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND...BUT JUST AS MUCH SUN FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A MORE TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER SOLAR INSOLATION ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO
PEAK BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY SPOTS. THE EVENING OF THE
4TH LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF MAN MADE AND SCATTERED MOTHER NATURE
FIREWORKS...HOWEVER OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL NOT BE DEALING WITH A
WASHOUT.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
A DLM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INITIALLY LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35/LONGITUDE
65-70 SLOWLY BUILDS AND SHIFTS WEST. THIS REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUES INTO MON AS A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) APPROACHES FL FROM THE
BAHAMAS. THE 01/12Z ECMWF AND THE 02/00Z GFS HANDLE THIS FEATURE
SIMILARITY.
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOW END SCATTERED RANGE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE MID 90S IN THE AFTERNOON. A RATHER ROBUST EAST AND SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE.
BY MON THE SURFACE REFECTION OF THE TUTT REACHES THE STATE WITH A
RELAXING EAST OR NE FLOW...ALLOWING A MORE UNIFORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTH WITH A BKN-OVC MID DECK.
EXPECT VCNTY SHRA WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -RA OVERNIGHT...THEN
BKN MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY WITH VCNTY TSRA RESULTING IN OCNL
MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING AND THEN REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING WINDS
ELEVATED...HOWEVER AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION...THE
HIGHEST SEAS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS RESULTED IN A FORECAST OF SEVERAL
LOCAL RIVERS REACHING ACTION STAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THIS
TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST...HOWEVER THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...THE CURRENT FORECASTS FOR CRESTS BELOW FLOOD STAGE MAY
NEED TO BE MODIFIED. RESIDENTS ALONG AREA RIVERS AND STREAM ARE
URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE MOST RECENT FORECASTS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOOD WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY. THE
LATEST RIVER FORECASTS CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TBW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE....BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DAILY
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 75 88 76 / 70 50 70 50
FMY 88 74 90 74 / 70 50 70 40
GIF 88 73 89 74 / 60 40 60 40
SRQ 88 75 89 75 / 70 60 70 50
BKV 86 73 89 72 / 70 50 70 40
SPG 85 77 87 77 / 70 60 70 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-
DESOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
FIRE WX/HYDROLOGY..MROCZKA
AVIATION/LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
152 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT INLAND AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PRODUCE
TIMES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND INTO
THE REGION AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...CONVEYOR BELT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES AS CONFIRMED BY 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECT
A GENERAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...JUSTIFYING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG/EAST OF I-95 AS SUGGESTED BY EARLY
MORNING RADAR TRENDS AND SOME GUIDANCE...OR WHETHER THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT INLAND AND INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95
OVERNIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM AND
THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY
PRECIPITATION WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
INCREASES AS SUGGESTED BY INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
TRAJECTORY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...PERHAPS LATER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH A SERIES OF POTENT SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER WET DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN DUE TO THE
VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DEEP RIDGE AND STRONG ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OVER
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES.
CURRENTLY...WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST DAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BAND OF HIGH PWATS MOVES BACK TO THE
WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. WEDNESDAY STILL FEATURES LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT A
BIT LOWER CLOSE TO THE COAST. BY THURSDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DRY
OUT CONSIDERABLY AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TAKES ON A MORE PROMINENT
ROLE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. AS SUCH...THURSDAY FEATURES MUCH MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CHANCE POPS. ALSO...WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVERHEAD...HEIGHTS RISE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GOOD AND FEATURES
A MUCH MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THE
STRONG ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING NEARLY RIGHT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A
PROGRESSIVE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE EACH DAY. POPS WILL FEATURE A
DECREASING TREND EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THANKS TO THE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...BUT ALSO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRONOUNCED NVA ALOFT. FRIDAY POPS
FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCES TO CHANCE INLAND...WHICH THEN DECREASE TO
JUST SLIGHT CHANCES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT AND HEIGHTS
INCREASING...TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 90S THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT
COMES TO THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. THE FORECAST WILL
INDICATE SHOWERS PREVAILING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY FROM ABOUT 14-23Z. AFTER 23Z THE
FORECAST JUST HAS VICINITY SHOWERS AS THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE
AT LEAST A BRIEF LULL IN SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN THE FORM OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE INDICATED IN A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 09-13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS...WILL MAINTAIN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND AMEND AS
TRENDS WARRANT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERIODICALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH INLAND
WILL KEEP A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND RESULT IN A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR. WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE
WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PUSH
COMBINED SEAS AS HIGH AS 5-8 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH ALL NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING THE
HARBOR...FALLING JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER LOCAL WINDS AT ANY TIME
TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY IMPROVE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THOUGH 6 FT SEAS WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BRINGING WITH IT A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...REDUCED
WINDS...AND LOWER SEAS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTED SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-15 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND
4-5 FT BEYOND.
RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES WHERE ONSHORE
WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 4 FT LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE
COAST. THE RISK WILL REMAIN MODERATE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES AND LOW ALONG THE GEORGIA BEACHES WHERE WINDS AND
SWELLS WILL BE WEAKER.
WE SHOW A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALL BEACHES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO MARGINAL SWELL COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A PERSISTENT REGIME FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTS NORTH OVER THE REGION...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED
BETWEEN DEEP LAYER/BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND UNUSUALLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
PLETHORA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES ALONG WITH EPISODES OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD DUMP 2-4 INCHES
OF RAIN WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES COULD BECOME COMMON BY TUESDAY EVENING.
BECAUSE MUCH OF THE REGION IS RUNNING WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR PRECIPITATION...AND BECAUSE THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS/WEEK...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ROUGHLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ330.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR/JAQ
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JRL/SPR
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATE SENT FOR ISOLD CONVECTION WITHIN ACCAS FIELD OVER WESTERN
CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF VORT MAX NEAR CHARLES CITY SAGGING SSW
TOWARD MARSHALLTOWN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED WITH
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON IN CORRIDOR FROM WEST OF DUBUQUE TO
WASHINGTON. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH ISOLD COVERAGE BUT THE
MORE RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SUGGEST COULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP UP HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS
BY 2-4 DEGS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. FAR EAST AND PORTIONS OF WEST
THAT SEE CLOUDS MAY BE HELD DOWN INTO THE MID 70S.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW HAD MOVED
FROM WESTERN KY TO SOUTHERN IL SINCE EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NE THROUGH NORTHERN MN
WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN IL UPPER LOW WAS MOVING WEST THROUGH
CENTRAL AND AND NORTHEASTERN IL. ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF
-SHRA/-TSRA AS MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHRA/TSRA WERE OCCURRING JUST A HEAD OF A SMALL
VORT CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST MN PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
WITH THE UPPER LOW BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE HOLDING
ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD TODAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE
OR ELEVATED CAPE OVER THIS AREA THIS MORNING BUT CAPES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE RIVER. SO MOST OF THE PRECIP EAST TODAY
SHOULD BE SHRA WITH ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE RIVER. SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALSO INTRODUCED OVER THE
NW TODAY. THE SMALL CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...THE NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE CAPES AROUND 1500J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS READINGS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
KEEPING HIGHS EAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
TONIGHT KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHRA SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED
TO BE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MINS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS BUT STILL IN THE MID OR UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK THEN TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY AND 4TH OF JULY...WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE DVN
CWA BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY/VERTICAL MOTION TO
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FOR THE 4TH OF JULY THERE
SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS/FILLS
EVEN FURTHER. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PLEASANT FOR EARLY
JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 75 TO 80.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA ALLOWING FOR A ZONAL FLOW TO
RETURN ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...A CHUNK OF THE
ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE MIDWEST. THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A MORE TYPICAL EARLY JULY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS RISING WELL
INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD ALSO BE A DRY FEW
DAYS WITH LACK OF A TRIGGER...AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY INTO THE CWA. AN
UPPER LOW ALSO LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY MID WEEK A DEEPENING NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
DRIVE THE COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BACK INTO THE DVN CWA.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY MAINLY WEST/SOUTHWEST OF KCID THIS
AFTN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN IOWA BY WED AFTN SPREADING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS... WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY STAYING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM N/NE 5-10 KTS THIS AFTN THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TNGT THROUGH WED IN WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1021 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATE SENT FOR ISOLD CONVECTION WITHIN ACCAS FIELD OVER WESTERN
CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF VORT MAX NEAR CHARLES CITY SAGGING SSW
TOWARD MARSHALLTOWN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED WITH
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON IN CORRIDOR FROM WEST OF DUBUQUE TO
WASHINGTON. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH ISOLD COVERAGE BUT THE
MORE RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SUGGEST COULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP UP HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS
BY 2-4 DEGS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. FAR EAST AND PORTIONS OF WEST
THAT SEE CLOUDS MAY BE HELD DOWN INTO THE MID 70S.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW HAD MOVED
FROM WESTERN KY TO SOUTHERN IL SINCE EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NE THROUGH NORTHERN MN
WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN IL UPPER LOW WAS MOVING WEST THROUGH
CENTRAL AND AND NORTHEASTERN IL. ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF
-SHRA/-TSRA AS MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHRA/TSRA WERE OCCURRING JUST A HEAD OF A SMALL
VORT CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST MN PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
WITH THE UPPER LOW BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE HOLDING
ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD TODAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE
OR ELEVATED CAPE OVER THIS AREA THIS MORNING BUT CAPES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE RIVER. SO MOST OF THE PRECIP EAST TODAY
SHOULD BE SHRA WITH ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE RIVER. SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALSO INTRODUCED OVER THE
NW TODAY. THE SMALL CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...THE NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE CAPES AROUND 1500J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS READINGS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
KEEPING HIGHS EAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
TONIGHT KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHRA SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED
TO BE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MINS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS BUT STILL IN THE MID OR UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK THEN TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY AND 4TH OF JULY...WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE DVN
CWA BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY/VERTICAL MOTION TO
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FOR THE 4TH OF JULY THERE
SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS/FILLS
EVEN FURTHER. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PLEASANT FOR EARLY
JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 75 TO 80.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA ALLOWING FOR A ZONAL FLOW TO
RETURN ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...A CHUNK OF THE
ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE MIDWEST. THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A MORE TYPICAL EARLY JULY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS RISING WELL
INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD ALSO BE A DRY FEW
DAYS WITH LACK OF A TRIGGER...AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY INTO THE CWA. AN
UPPER LOW ALSO LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY MID WEEK A DEEPENING NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
DRIVE THE COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BACK INTO THE DVN CWA.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN A STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MO THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH
SPREADING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH CENTRAL
IL. MOST OF THE THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF KCID THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
654 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION. AS OF
19Z...TWO WEAK WAVES WERE OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE SATELLITE
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
TOWERING CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OWNING TO THE WEAK
INHIBITION WITH SCT THUNDER SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS WHERE
COVERAGE IS SCATTERED. ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS ELSEWHERE
WARRANTED A SLIGHT CHC THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY AS THE LATEST RUC AND NAM ANALYSIS SHOW ML CAPE FROM
500-1000 J/KG WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 20 KTS. COULD NOT RULE
OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND PERHAPS GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO 750 MB. WITH THE STORMS BEING
HEAT DRIVEN SHOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THIS EVENING AS TEMPS
FALL TO THE LOW 60S.
STOUT EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY AS IT
CENTERS NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS
SETUP...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS CLOSEST TO THE
RELATIVE STRONGER FORCING. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
WITH THE ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING OVER THE PLAINS REGION.
INCREASED WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH SUSTAINED MORE ON THE SIDE
WITH THE NAM AND UKMET. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES
EVIDENT IN THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF ROLLING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THE EARLY EVENING OF THE 4TH CANT
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME MIXED OUT
WITH VERY LITTLE CIN...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS INTO THE
EVENING THINK ISOLATED STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY DUSK. COULD
ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE EVENING OF THE 4TH
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLOW CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER
TROF FINALLY STARTS TO TAKE A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE ISOLATED THUNDER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT CROSSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH MONDAY THE
FORECAST AREA RESIDES ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH WITH
PRECIP CHANCES RIDING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TRANSITIONING UPPER FLOW MORE NORTHWESTERLY MAY BE ENOUGH TO LAY A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. AFTER TEMPERATURES
RISE BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY WEEK...COULD SEE
ANOTHER SLIGHT COOLDOWN IF THIS FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE KFOE AND KTOP TAF SITES SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 02Z THU. VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP TO 2
TO 3 SM AND WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE 20 TO 30 KTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...CRAVEN
AVIATION...GARGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
155 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2013
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed quickly this
afternoon as character of clouds changed quickly to cumuliform. No
real changes from previous thoughts below, and no major changes to
forecast in near term at this time. With some drier air aloft on
morning soundings and as shown in water vapor imagery, isolated
stronger cells could produce some hail and wind gusts of 30 to 40
mph this afternoon, before storms weaken by early evening.
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
Upper low continues to spin over southern IL this morning, with the
most persistent rain just north and west of the center. To the east
of the center over our forecast area, water vapor imagery shows a
relative dry slot aloft. This tops ample low-level moisture as
evidenced by abundant low clouds this morning, and OHX and ILN 12z
soundings showing low-level moisture. As expected, the low
stratiform clouds are not beginning to dissipate leaving more
cumuliform clouds over central KY. Temperatures have been slow to
warm this morning under the low clouds, but now should rise nicely
through the afternoon into the lower 80s in many locations (except
near 80 in parts of south-central IN).
Main forecast challenge is location and coverage of any afternoon
convection. Water vapor imagery also showed a weakening subtle
shortwave roughly near Memphis which could promote cell growth on
the eastern periphery of the upper low. This would mean western/
west-central KY (our western forecast area) might have a slightly
better chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Also,
better moisture influx and diurnal heating over eastern KY and our
eastern forecast area should promote cell growth in that area, which
is supported by recent runs of the HRRR and local WRF models.
In-between over central KY, there may be a relatively minimum of
convective cells this afternoon. Nevertheless, given the synoptic
set-up and at least some destabilization this afternoon, at least
isolated convection is still expected, especially where local cloud
boundaries set up to promote mesoscale forcing. Activity should wane
later this evening as the boundary layer again stabilizes.
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
A quick update this morning to account for latest cloud, precip, and
fog trends. Morning visible data shows a good deal of low clouds
over forecast area, especially northern and western two-thirds of
central KY and south-central IN. Fog also remains prevalent at some
locations, although visibilities will improve through the rest of
the morning. Expect low stratus clouds to eventually scour out to
some degree late this morning and early afternoon, as cumulus clouds
begin to take their place. Currently, no precip is in our forecast
area, but isolated to scattered cells are expected this afternoon as
daytime heating and instability increase, as detailed in short term
discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through tonight)...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
With the upper-level low just off to our west-northwest, central KY
and southern IN are currently in a relative dry slot. Thanks to an
abundance of rainfall in some locations over the past few days,
though, low-level moisture is abundant, and areas of fog and low
stratus have been drifting over several AWOS/ASOS sites, with
visibilities dropping below a mile at times. The low clouds and fog
will persist into mid morning, hindering a rise in temperatures in
those locations until late morning. By that time, diurnal heating in
the areas that had been clear will initiate cumulus development,
which will help slow down rising temperatures in those areas.
Thanks to the nearby upper-level low and the high low-level RH, a
few of the cumulus should grow into thunderstorms, though with the
low inching away to the NNW, we look to stay in the relative dry
slot for the most part, so areal coverage should not be nearly as
high as the past few days. While most will therefore not see rain,
the atmospheric conditions for heavy rains - albeit isolated - still
prevail, so a very few locations could see significant amounts,
while most remain dry. For now, both the models and current
satellite trends indicate the best location for thunder to be along
the I-75 corridor in the eastern part of our forecast area, but as
has been the case the past few days, a lingering boundary or subtle
perturbation elsewhere could generate a soaker elsewhere.
With all of the moisture and clouds around, highs today will remain
5-10 degrees below seasonal norms, ranging from the mid 70s in
locations seeing little sunshine to the lower 80s in those spots
with less clouds. Lows tonight should dip back into the 60s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
...Unsettled weather pattern continues for much of the Ohio Valley...
The mid-level reflection of our large low pressure system will be
positioned across Missouri and Iowa Wednesday, while both east and
west coasts of the CONUS will be under high pressure. The
upper-level low is forecast to retrograde, lift northward and get
swept up in the westerlies through the weekend. As this occurs,
Bermuda high pressure sitting across the eastern CONUS will shift
west and have more of an influence on our forecast area.
With the upper-level low still controlling our weather Wednesday,
diurnal clouds and convection are expected. However, guidance is
starting to show some activity late Wednesday night and again
Thursday mainly for locations along and east of I-65 as a few vort
maxes round the western side of the Bermuda high and interact with
an axis of lower-level moisture from the Gulf. As the high builds
further west, this moisture axis will also shift west and much of
the forecast area will experience a good amount of convection Friday
and into Friday night. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it
is not going to be a total washout through the period but several
rounds of convection will move through, providing most locations
with rainfall. Once again, locally heavy rainfall will be the main
concern with th convective activity Wednesday through Friday night.
From Saturday through Monday, the Bermuda high will strengthen it`s
grip in the Ohio Valley, with temperatures and moisture continuing
to increase. As heights aloft increase, we should see a decrease in
afternoon and evening convective coverage. However, should still
experience scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early
evening hours, as there will be plenty of moisture and limited
afternoon capping. Not seeing much in the way of a trigger other
than differential heating boundaries and outflow from any convection
that does fire. Localized heavy rainfall would be the main threat
with any convection that does develop.
As for temperatures, highs Wednesday should top out in the lower
80s. Expect temperatures Thursday and Friday to remain on the cool
side for this time of year, as clouds hold strong and waves of
showers/storms track across the region. Middle 70s to lower 80s are
expected at this time. From Saturday through Monday, the Bermuda
high should be more of an influence on our weather, which will send
temperatures into the low and middle 80s Saturday, and middle to
upper 80s by Monday. Overnight lows will show a similar trend, with
lower to middle 60s Wednesday night giving way to upper 60s and
lower 70s by Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
Scattered to broken clouds (mainly VFR) cover the forecast area at
this time, east of upper low over southern IL. Isolated thunder-
storms have begun developing in central KY, and isolated to
scattered storms will continue this afternoon before weakening this
evening. Conditions should remain VFR this afternoon and evening,
briefly (less than an hour) going MVFR and possibly IFR if strong
storms pass over a TAF site. After storms weaken tonight, low-to-mid
clouds will remain but generally VFR will prevail. Overnight, with
ample low-level moisture in place, lower clouds and areas of fog
will likely develop again (similar to this morning), with at least
MVFR conditions expected at BWG and LEX after 08 or 09z. Will keep
SDF VFR but MVFR fog is possible at times near daybreak. Models also
depict a surge of moisture heading north into eastern half of
Kentucky by Wednesday morning, continuing northward from there. This
should result in scattered convection at LEX and SDF in particular
in latter portion of valid TAF forecast period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........TWF
Short Term.......JBS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........TWF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
130 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2013
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
Upper low continues to spin over southern IL this morning, with the
most persistent rain just north and west of the center. To the east
of the center over our forecast area, water vapor imagery shows a
relative dry slot aloft. This tops ample low-level moisture as
evidenced by abundant low clouds this morning, and OHX and ILN 12z
soundings showing low-level moisture. As expected, the low
stratiform clouds are not beginning to dissipate leaving more
cumuliform clouds over central KY. Temperatures have been slow to
warm this morning under the low clouds, but now should rise nicely
through the afternoon into the lower 80s in many locations (except
near 80 in parts of south-central IN).
Main forecast challenge is location and coverage of any afternoon
convection. Water vapor imagery also showed a weakening subtle
shortwave roughly near Memphis which could promote cell growth on
the eastern periphery of the upper low. This would mean western/
west-central KY (our western forecast area) might have a slightly
better chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Also,
better moisture influx and diurnal heating over eastern KY and our
eastern forecast area should promote cell growth in that area, which
is supported by recent runs of the HRRR and local WRF models.
In-between over central KY, there may be a relatively minimum of
convective cells this afternoon. Nevertheless, given the synoptic
set-up and at least some destabilization this afternoon, at least
isolated convection is still expected, especially where local cloud
boundaries set up to promote mesoscale forcing. Activity should wane
later this evening as the boundary layer again stabilizes.
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
A quick update this morning to account for latest cloud, precip, and
fog trends. Morning visible data shows a good deal of low clouds
over forecast area, especially northern and western two-thirds of
central KY and south-central IN. Fog also remains prevalent at some
locations, although visibilities will improve through the rest of
the morning. Expect low stratus clouds to eventually scour out to
some degree late this morning and early afternoon, as cumulus clouds
begin to take their place. Currently, no precip is in our forecast
area, but isolated to scattered cells are expected this afternoon as
daytime heating and instability increase, as detailed in short term
discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through tonight)...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
With the upper-level low just off to our west-northwest, central KY
and southern IN are currently in a relative dry slot. Thanks to an
abundance of rainfall in some locations over the past few days,
though, low-level moisture is abundant, and areas of fog and low
stratus have been drifting over several AWOS/ASOS sites, with
visibilities dropping below a mile at times. The low clouds and fog
will persist into mid morning, hindering a rise in temperatures in
those locations until late morning. By that time, diurnal heating in
the areas that had been clear will initiate cumulus development,
which will help slow down rising temperatures in those areas.
Thanks to the nearby upper-level low and the high low-level RH, a
few of the cumulus should grow into thunderstorms, though with the
low inching away to the NNW, we look to stay in the relative dry
slot for the most part, so areal coverage should not be nearly as
high as the past few days. While most will therefore not see rain,
the atmospheric conditions for heavy rains - albeit isolated - still
prevail, so a very few locations could see significant amounts,
while most remain dry. For now, both the models and current
satellite trends indicate the best location for thunder to be along
the I-75 corridor in the eastern part of our forecast area, but as
has been the case the past few days, a lingering boundary or subtle
perturbation elsewhere could generate a soaker elsewhere.
With all of the moisture and clouds around, highs today will remain
5-10 degrees below seasonal norms, ranging from the mid 70s in
locations seeing little sunshine to the lower 80s in those spots
with less clouds. Lows tonight should dip back into the 60s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
...Unsettled weather pattern continues for much of the Ohio Valley...
The mid-level reflection of our large low pressure system will be
positioned across Missouri and Iowa Wednesday, while both east and
west coasts of the CONUS will be under high pressure. The
upper-level low is forecast to retrograde, lift northward and get
swept up in the westerlies through the weekend. As this occurs,
Bermuda high pressure sitting across the eastern CONUS will shift
west and have more of an influence on our forecast area.
With the upper-level low still controlling our weather Wednesday,
diurnal clouds and convection are expected. However, guidance is
starting to show some activity late Wednesday night and again
Thursday mainly for locations along and east of I-65 as a few vort
maxes round the western side of the Bermuda high and interact with
an axis of lower-level moisture from the Gulf. As the high builds
further west, this moisture axis will also shift west and much of
the forecast area will experience a good amount of convection Friday
and into Friday night. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it
is not going to be a total washout through the period but several
rounds of convection will move through, providing most locations
with rainfall. Once again, locally heavy rainfall will be the main
concern with th convective activity Wednesday through Friday night.
From Saturday through Monday, the Bermuda high will strengthen it`s
grip in the Ohio Valley, with temperatures and moisture continuing
to increase. As heights aloft increase, we should see a decrease in
afternoon and evening convective coverage. However, should still
experience scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early
evening hours, as there will be plenty of moisture and limited
afternoon capping. Not seeing much in the way of a trigger other
than differential heating boundaries and outflow from any convection
that does fire. Localized heavy rainfall would be the main threat
with any convection that does develop.
As for temperatures, highs Wednesday should top out in the lower
80s. Expect temperatures Thursday and Friday to remain on the cool
side for this time of year, as clouds hold strong and waves of
showers/storms track across the region. Middle 70s to lower 80s are
expected at this time. From Saturday through Monday, the Bermuda
high should be more of an influence on our weather, which will send
temperatures into the low and middle 80s Saturday, and middle to
upper 80s by Monday. Overnight lows will show a similar trend, with
lower to middle 60s Wednesday night giving way to upper 60s and
lower 70s by Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
Scattered to broken clouds (mainly VFR) cover the forecast area at
this time, east of upper low over southern IL. Isolated thunder-
storms have begun developing in central KY, and isolated to
scattered storms will continue this afternoon before weakening this
evening. Conditions should remain VFR this afternoon and evening,
briefly (less than an hour) going MVFR and possibly IFR if strong
storms pass over a TAF site. After storms weaken tonight, low-to-mid
clouds will remain but generally VFR will prevail. Overnight, with
ample low-level moisture in place, lower clouds and areas of fog
will likely develop again (similar to this morning), with at least
MVFR conditions expected at BWG and LEX after 08 or 09z. Will keep
SDF VFR but MVFR fog is possible at times near daybreak. Models also
depict a surge of moisture heading north into eastern half of
Kentucky by Wednesday morning, continuing northward from there. This
should result in scattered convection at LEX and SDF in particular
in latter portion of valid TAF forecast period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........TWF
Short Term.......JBS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........TWF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1138 AM EDT TUE JUL 02 2013
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
Upper low continues to spin over southern IL this morning, with the
most persistent rain just north and west of the center. To the east
of the center over our forecast area, water vapor imagery shows a
relative dry slot aloft. This tops ample low-level moisture as
evidenced by abundant low clouds this morning, and OHX and ILN 12z
soundings showing low-level moisture. As expected, the low
stratiform clouds are not beginning to dissipate leaving more
cumuliform clouds over central KY. Temperatures have been slow to
warm this morning under the low clouds, but now should rise nicely
through the afternoon into the lower 80s in many locations (except
near 80 in parts of south-central IN).
Main forecast challenge is location and coverage of any afternoon
convection. Water vapor imagery also showed a weakening subtle
shortwave roughly near Memphis which could promote cell growth on
the eastern periphery of the upper low. This would mean western/
west-central KY (our western forecast area) might have a slightly
better chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Also,
better moisture influx and diurnal heating over eastern KY and our
eastern forecast area should promote cell growth in that area, which
is supported by recent runs of the HRRR and local WRF models.
In-between over central KY, there may be a relatively minimum of
convective cells this afternoon. Nevertheless, given the synoptic
set-up and at least some destabilization this afternoon, at least
isolated convection is still expected, especially where local cloud
boundaries set up to promote mesoscale forcing. Activity should wane
later this evening as the boundary layer again stabilizes.
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
A quick update this morning to account for latest cloud, precip, and
fog trends. Morning visible data shows a good deal of low clouds
over forecast area, especially northern and western two-thirds of
central KY and south-central IN. Fog also remains prevalent at some
locations, although visibilities will improve through the rest of
the morning. Expect low stratus clouds to eventually scour out to
some degree late this morning and early afternoon, as cumulus clouds
begin to take their place. Currently, no precip is in our forecast
area, but isolated to scattered cells are expected this afternoon as
daytime heating and instability increase, as detailed in short term
discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through tonight)...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
With the upper-level low just off to our west-northwest, central KY
and southern IN are currently in a relative dry slot. Thanks to an
abundance of rainfall in some locations over the past few days,
though, low-level moisture is abundant, and areas of fog and low
stratus have been drifting over several AWOS/ASOS sites, with
visibilities dropping below a mile at times. The low clouds and fog
will persist into mid morning, hindering a rise in temperatures in
those locations until late morning. By that time, diurnal heating in
the areas that had been clear will initiate cumulus development,
which will help slow down rising temperatures in those areas.
Thanks to the nearby upper-level low and the high low-level RH, a
few of the cumulus should grow into thunderstorms, though with the
low inching away to the NNW, we look to stay in the relative dry
slot for the most part, so areal coverage should not be nearly as
high as the past few days. While most will therefore not see rain,
the atmospheric conditions for heavy rains - albeit isolated - still
prevail, so a very few locations could see significant amounts,
while most remain dry. For now, both the models and current
satellite trends indicate the best location for thunder to be along
the I-75 corridor in the eastern part of our forecast area, but as
has been the case the past few days, a lingering boundary or subtle
perturbation elsewhere could generate a soaker elsewhere.
With all of the moisture and clouds around, highs today will remain
5-10 degrees below seasonal norms, ranging from the mid 70s in
locations seeing little sunshine to the lower 80s in those spots
with less clouds. Lows tonight should dip back into the 60s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
...Unsettled weather pattern continues for much of the Ohio Valley...
The mid-level reflection of our large low pressure system will be
positioned across Missouri and Iowa Wednesday, while both east and
west coasts of the CONUS will be under high pressure. The
upper-level low is forecast to retrograde, lift northward and get
swept up in the westerlies through the weekend. As this occurs,
Bermuda high pressure sitting across the eastern CONUS will shift
west and have more of an influence on our forecast area.
With the upper-level low still controlling our weather Wednesday,
diurnal clouds and convection are expected. However, guidance is
starting to show some activity late Wednesday night and again
Thursday mainly for locations along and east of I-65 as a few vort
maxes round the western side of the Bermuda high and interact with
an axis of lower-level moisture from the Gulf. As the high builds
further west, this moisture axis will also shift west and much of
the forecast area will experience a good amount of convection Friday
and into Friday night. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it
is not going to be a total washout through the period but several
rounds of convection will move through, providing most locations
with rainfall. Once again, locally heavy rainfall will be the main
concern with th convective activity Wednesday through Friday night.
From Saturday through Monday, the Bermuda high will strengthen it`s
grip in the Ohio Valley, with temperatures and moisture continuing
to increase. As heights aloft increase, we should see a decrease in
afternoon and evening convective coverage. However, should still
experience scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early
evening hours, as there will be plenty of moisture and limited
afternoon capping. Not seeing much in the way of a trigger other
than differential heating boundaries and outflow from any convection
that does fire. Localized heavy rainfall would be the main threat
with any convection that does develop.
As for temperatures, highs Wednesday should top out in the lower
80s. Expect temperatures Thursday and Friday to remain on the cool
side for this time of year, as clouds hold strong and waves of
showers/storms track across the region. Middle 70s to lower 80s are
expected at this time. From Saturday through Monday, the Bermuda
high should be more of an influence on our weather, which will send
temperatures into the low and middle 80s Saturday, and middle to
upper 80s by Monday. Overnight lows will show a similar trend, with
lower to middle 60s Wednesday night giving way to upper 60s and
lower 70s by Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2013
IFR stratus and fog were in and out overnight at the three TAF
sites. Visibilities have been increasing over the past 1-2 hours
while stratus has expanded in areal coverage.
The stratus should start to erode with the rising sun, and by 15Z
clouds will be driven more by mixing with CIGs rising to MVFR.
With a surface Low over far western Kentucky, winds will be light
easterly...becoming more southeast as the main circulation center
works its way northward.
Convection will be less widespread than the past few days, with the
favored area for TSRA being INVOF LEX, though the chance cannot be
eliminated from BWG and SDF.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........TWF
Short Term.......JBS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........JBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE PESKY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS AFFECTED THE REGION OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN THE AREA. IT WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...AND BRING AN AREA OF RAINFALL IN
WITH IT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A LOW CHANCE WILL REMAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING A BRIEF LULL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
HRRR DOING PRETTY WELL WITH THE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
STRETCHING FROM SAUGATUCK UP TO CENTRAL LOWER. IR SATELLITE AND
HRRR BOTH SUPPORT LULL IN PCPN WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AFTER
THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH. HRRR PULSES UP ACTIVITY AT 19-20Z. NAM
AND RAP BOTH FOCUS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE PAINTS A PESSIMISTIC PICTURE POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON SUN. TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED DOWN MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN TRENDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND ALSO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WED.
CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING HIGH THIS MORNING THAT ROUGHLY THE SE THIRD
TO HALF OF THE CWFA WILL SEE RAINFALL OCCUR TODAY. RAINFALL IS
EXPANDING NICELY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO
KALAMAZOO. THIS IS RESULTING FROM SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE THAT IS HEADING TOWARD DETROIT. WE ARE
SEEING SOME OF THE DEFORMATION OCCURRING ON THE NW PORTION OF THIS
WAVE. THE BEST RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDS ON ACROSS THE SE BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT LATER AS IT
PUSHES N AND NW.
WE EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO KEEP EXPANDING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE SHEARS
A
BIT AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES. EVEN AS THIS HAPPENS...WE
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO POSSIBLE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH
THE UPPER LOW/MID LEVEL COLD POOL ROTATING CLOSER TO THE AREA.
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT
STABLE FOR THE TIME BEING. WE DO EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD
SOUTH OF I-96 THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTS
JUST NORTH AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD OPEN UP.
WE WILL SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH A BIT IN COVERAGE AS THE
INITIAL WAVE SHEARS OUT AND AS WE LOSE OUR DIURNAL BOOST TO THE
INSTABILITY. PCPN CHCS WILL NOT TOTALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WE
WILL SEE WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE IN FROM THE SSW AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS DUE TO
THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL NEARBY.
THESE SHORT WAVES COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON WED COMPARED TO
TODAY...BUT RAINFALL IN GENERAL WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD. WE WILL
SEE THE SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 80 WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S BUILD ML CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE LOW ITSELF AND POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZES COULD BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WED. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
WEST...WE WILL SEE BETTER MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO. IF WE CAN SEE
MORE SUN TO BUILD THE INSTABILITY MORE...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WED AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT
AREA OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. FCST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PLACE.
THE BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES WILL SHIFT MORE EAST FOR THE DAY ON
THU. BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVES STAYING EAST
WILL FOCUS THE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA AND
EAST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE WAY FOR SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN. THAT IS... WARM AND HUMID WITH THE RISK OF A LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARMTH CONTINUES MONDAY WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH? JUST
HOW QUICKLY DOES IT GET REPLACED BY THE EXPANDING WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (BERMUDA HIGH)? TYPICALLY THE MODELS DISSIPATE
THESE FEATURES TO QUICKLY AND LIKELY THAT WILL BE THE CASE THIS
WEEKEND.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IS COLD FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM THAT SHEARS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM
WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PUT SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN IN THE RING OF FIRE FOR CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD START EXTENDED WET PERIOD FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
BUT THIS TIME IT WILL BE WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID WITH THE FRONT
LARGELY STALLING JUST NORTH OF HERE.
AS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND OUR WARMING TREND IN OUR DAILY
TEMPERATURES... THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE DISSIPATING UPPER TROUGH
(WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES) AND INCOMING PACIFIC STORM (SHEARED OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM) PUTS SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN IN A DEEP...WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING
BERMUDA HIGH. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
CONUS BEING SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. BASICALLY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BRING
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (LIKELY OUR
FORECAST HIGHS ARE TO CONSERVATIVE). WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND OF THE COAST... AND DEW POINTS IN THE
60S... ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY BUT THE RISK IN ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE RATHER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP AREA WIDE BUT
CONFIDENCE WASN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAFS. WE/LL LIKELY SEE
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS AND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE HYDROLOGY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FOCUSED ON THE HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. BASIN
AVERAGES SHOULD BE UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND WE WILL SEE POSSIBLE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN. EVENTUALLY
THE PCPN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ON WED AND THU...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THOSE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EBW
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1113 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE PESKY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS AFFECTED THE REGION OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN THE AREA. IT WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...AND BRING AN AREA OF RAINFALL IN
WITH IT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A LOW CHANCE WILL REMAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING A BRIEF LULL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
HRRR DOING PRETTY WELL WITH THE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
STRETCHING FROM SAUGATUCK UP TO CENTRAL LOWER. IR SATELLITE AND
HRRR BOTH SUPPORT LULL IN PCPN WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AFTER
THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH. HRRR PULSES UP ACTIVITY AT 19-20Z. NAM
AND RAP BOTH FOCUS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE PAINTS A PESSIMISTIC PICTURE POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON SUN. TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED DOWN MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN TRENDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND ALSO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WED.
CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING HIGH THIS MORNING THAT ROUGHLY THE SE THIRD
TO HALF OF THE CWFA WILL SEE RAINFALL OCCUR TODAY. RAINFALL IS
EXPANDING NICELY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO
KALAMAZOO. THIS IS RESULTING FROM SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE THAT IS HEADING TOWARD DETROIT. WE ARE
SEEING SOME OF THE DEFORMATION OCCURRING ON THE NW PORTION OF THIS
WAVE. THE BEST RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDS ON ACROSS THE SE BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT LATER AS IT
PUSHES N AND NW.
WE EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO KEEP EXPANDING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE SHEARS
A
BIT AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES. EVEN AS THIS HAPPENS...WE
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO POSSIBLE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH
THE UPPER LOW/MID LEVEL COLD POOL ROTATING CLOSER TO THE AREA.
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT
STABLE FOR THE TIME BEING. WE DO EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD
SOUTH OF I-96 THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTS
JUST NORTH AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD OPEN UP.
WE WILL SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH A BIT IN COVERAGE AS THE
INITIAL WAVE SHEARS OUT AND AS WE LOSE OUR DIURNAL BOOST TO THE
INSTABILITY. PCPN CHCS WILL NOT TOTALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WE
WILL SEE WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE IN FROM THE SSW AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS DUE TO
THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL NEARBY.
THESE SHORT WAVES COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON WED COMPARED TO
TODAY...BUT RAINFALL IN GENERAL WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD. WE WILL
SEE THE SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 80 WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S BUILD ML CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE LOW ITSELF AND POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZES COULD BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WED. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
WEST...WE WILL SEE BETTER MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO. IF WE CAN SEE
MORE SUN TO BUILD THE INSTABILITY MORE...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WED AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT
AREA OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. FCST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PLACE.
THE BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES WILL SHIFT MORE EAST FOR THE DAY ON
THU. BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVES STAYING EAST
WILL FOCUS THE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA AND
EAST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE WAY FOR SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN. THAT IS... WARM AND HUMID WITH THE RISK OF A LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARMTH CONTINUES MONDAY WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH? JUST
HOW QUICKLY DOES IT GET REPLACED BY THE EXPANDING WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (BERMUDA HIGH)? TYPICALLY THE MODELS DISSIPATE
THESE FEATURES TO QUICKLY AND LIKELY THAT WILL BE THE CASE THIS
WEEKEND.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IS COLD FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM THAT SHEARS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM
WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PUT SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN IN THE RING OF FIRE FOR CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD START EXTENDED WET PERIOD FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
BUT THIS TIME IT WILL BE WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID WITH THE FRONT
LARGELY STALLING JUST NORTH OF HERE.
AS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND OUR WARMING TREND IN OUR DAILY
TEMPERATURES... THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE DISSIPATING UPPER TROUGH
(WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES) AND INCOMING PACIFIC STORM (SHEARED OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM) PUTS SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN IN A DEEP...WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING
BERMUDA HIGH. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
CONUS BEING SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. BASICALLY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BRING
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (LIKELY OUR
FORECAST HIGHS ARE TO CONSERVATIVE). WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND OF THE COAST... AND DEW POINTS IN THE
60S... ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY BUT THE RISK IN ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE RATHER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES AROUND 12Z WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS ARE MOSTLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BUT THEY TOO WILL LIFT OUT AFTER
15Z. THUS VFR CIGS/VSBY WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. AFTER 06Z A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY. THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY THIS WILL MOSTLY IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 94 TAF SITES.
AFTER 12Z THIS AREA OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
INTERSTATE 96 TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS AND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE HYDROLOGY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FOCUSED ON THE HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. BASIN
AVERAGES SHOULD BE UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND WE WILL SEE POSSIBLE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN. EVENTUALLY
THE PCPN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ON WED AND THU...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THOSE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EBW
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
TODAY AND TONIGHT LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS WE REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... BUT SEE
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE LITTLE OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS... HENCE THE EXPECTATION FOR
MINIMAL CHANGES IN CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY... SO WE
SHOULDN/T GET QUITE AS WARM... BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL STILL TOP 80.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS STILL APPEAR A BIT OVERDONE WITH LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE... PARTICULARLY GIVEN DECENT MIXING DURING
THE AFTERNOON... 700-500MB LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT... AND WE
SHOULD STILL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF FORCING FROM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY... THE VARIOUS CAM
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING HOPWRF... MPXWRF... AND THE NMM/ARW HIRES WINDOW
RUNS... INDICATE MLCAPE WILL REACH AOA 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY POOLED IN TWO AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
ONE AREA OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ANOTHER
OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. DON/T HAVE MUCH REASON TO DOUBT WHAT
THE CAMS ARE DOING WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHRA IN THOSE
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON... SO INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY FROM AROUND 20-02Z ACROSS THE WESTERN... SOUTHERN... AND
EASTERN CWFA. ANY DAYTIME ENHANCED CU/SHRA SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING... WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE FORECAST READS MAINLY DRY UNTIL SATURDAY...HOWEVER...AS IS THE
CASE TODAY...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 02.00Z NCEP WRF ARW/NMM RUNS SHOW
LESS ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADES WITH TIME...SO WE WILL REMAIN COOL
ALOFT AND SHOULD DEFINITELY BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME CUMULUS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 02.00Z GFS
GENERATES QPF VIRTUALLY EVERY PERIOD SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BL MOISTURE OFF THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE OVERDONE AND EVEN THE NAM IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MOIST GIVEN
THE MIXING WE HAVE WITNESSED THE PAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS.
THEREFORE...LIKE KEEPING THE 5-14% POPS IN THE FORECAST...THUS
IMPLYING THERE COULD BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED SHOWERS. IF THERE IS A
PERIOD...WHERE I COULD SEE ADDING POPS AT SOME POINT...IT WOULD BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE DO SEE AN INCREASE IN 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND JUST ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW THAT
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER SE MN.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS STILL GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN INCREASING LLJ
AND MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPS
WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MN/WI
SHOULD BE ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP WITH 700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 10-12
DEGREES. WHILE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION
EXISTS THIS FAR OUT. THE PATTERN SHIFT BY THE WEEKEND WARRANTS AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS. WE HAVE 40-60% THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IT ALSO APPEARS ONCE WE GET
INTO THE WETTER/WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY...IT HANGS
AROUND UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
ANOTHER QUIET FORECAST PERIOD IS IN STORE... WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION... BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST IS HELPING TO
KEEP SOME COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALOFT... WHICH WILL ONCE
AGAIN LEAD TO SOME SCT TO LOCALLY BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHRA ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER... MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH LOW
LEVEL FORCING/CONVERGENCE. THE BEST INSTABILITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA... WITH AN AREA
OF HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL SITES. THE SHORT RANGE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS... INCLUDING HRRR AND THE HOPWRF ENSEMBLE...
MATCH UP WELL WITH THIS THINKING... WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE WEST. REGARDLESS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHEAST
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTATIONS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ONLY
POSSIBLE ISSUE WOULD BE WHETHER THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME
BKN CEILINGS AOA 5K FT AGL LATER THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAT DOES
NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS YESTERDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 KT INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH WIND 10
TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A
BETTER FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
WETTING RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER HIGH MEANDERS BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND OVER ARIZONA AND BELT OF STRONGER UPPER WINDS LINGERS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. RUC INDICATES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
WILL BE FAVORED LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER GUSTY EAST WIND LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN ABQ METRO THIS
EVENING. THE SURFACE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE RUC INDICATES THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED WEST TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT...AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTDVD TO
GUP AND FMN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD REPEAT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO RESULT IN SLOWER STORM MOTION AND PERHAPS A BIT OF DRYING.
A TREND TOWARDS WARMER HIGHS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND STILL
STANDS AS THE HIGH CENTER BECOMES LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO. DON/T SEE
A MECHANISM TO TOTALLY DRY US OUT SO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOCATIONS. IN FACT
THE ECMWF INDICATES A SETUP FOR THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD IMPORT SOME
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION AND RESULT IN BETTER
THAN GENERIC CONVECTION. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH WILL BE
WITH US INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
OT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER HIGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
ARIZONA. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A
NORTH/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS. WETTING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE FOOTPRINT OF A
TENTH OF AN INCH WOULD BE THE SMALLEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR
SO. THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME A BIT LIGHTER THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD
REMAIN A CONCERN. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD. THIS IS WHERE TEEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE FOUND AT
TIMES DURING LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PLACING THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS DOESNT LOOK TO BE AN ESPECIALLY STRONG UPPER
HIGH SO A CAPPING INVERSION IN TERMS OF AFFECTING STORM POTENTIAL IS
NOT EXPECTED. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOME DURING THIS PERIOD THUS ALLOWING FOR OTHER AREAS WITHIN
MOUNTAIN RANGES TO BE FAVORED VERSUS WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RECYCLED MOISTURE PERIOD. THIS
MEANS THE WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT FOR STORMS WOULD REDUCE SOME AS THE
OVERALL ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT DRIER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BECOME A BIT WARMER. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS AND THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED WITH THE STORMS. WESTERN AREAS
COULD SEE LONGER PERIODS OF LOW HUMIDITY AS TIME GOES ON UNDER THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...ESPECIALLY THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. SOME WESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD RETURN BUT NOT REAL STRONG. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THIS PERIOD
ALTHOUGH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT INDICATE THAT SORT OF INFLUENCE
AT THIS TIME.
MODELS INDICATE SOME SORT OF UPPER HIGH INFLUENCE INTO NEXT WEEK AND
SUSPECT THAT THE RECYCLING OF MOISTURE WOULD CONTINUE IN THE FORM OR
ISOLD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS. CANT HANG
MY HAT ON ANY ONE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTRUSION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM AT THIS TIME BUT SUSPECT A BACK DOOR WILL DO THAT. MODELS
SHOW SOME SORT OF BACK DOOR OR HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE SURGE TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT AS TIME GOES ON. TIMING OF
THAT WOULD MOST LIKELY ADJUST SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT EVENT
PERIOD.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
FASTER MOVING SH/TS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE VERSUS WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY AS FAR AS IMPACTS TO
TERMINAL SITES. HAVE VCTS OR SH MENTIONED AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL
SITES. HAVE TEMPO SH/TS AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL SITES EXCEPT FOR
FMN. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME BLDU WILL BE
POSSIBLE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SITES. WETTER STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THAT COULD BRING MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...CANT RULE OUT SOME LONGER
DURATION RAINFALL AND MVFR CIGS AT LVS AND PERHAPS EVEN ROW BASED
ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 64 94 63 94 / 20 20 20 20
DULCE........................... 49 84 49 86 / 30 30 30 30
CUBA............................ 52 82 51 84 / 40 40 40 30
GALLUP.......................... 63 91 59 91 / 30 20 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 55 87 54 85 / 30 30 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 58 87 56 88 / 30 20 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 58 88 56 88 / 40 30 30 30
GLENWOOD........................ 59 92 59 92 / 30 30 40 20
CHAMA........................... 46 80 47 81 / 30 40 40 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 80 54 81 / 40 40 40 30
PECOS........................... 50 74 50 75 / 50 50 40 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 78 51 78 / 50 40 40 30
RED RIVER....................... 45 72 45 71 / 50 50 50 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 72 45 74 / 50 60 50 40
TAOS............................ 54 80 52 83 / 50 30 40 30
MORA............................ 50 74 49 75 / 50 50 50 40
ESPANOLA........................ 51 84 52 86 / 50 30 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 52 80 54 81 / 50 30 30 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 83 56 84 / 40 30 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 84 61 87 / 40 30 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 86 65 88 / 30 20 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 87 60 90 / 30 20 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 87 61 91 / 30 20 30 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 87 63 89 / 30 20 30 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 86 63 90 / 30 20 30 20
SOCORRO......................... 65 88 64 92 / 40 30 30 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 82 59 86 / 40 30 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 59 83 60 86 / 40 30 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 80 53 82 / 50 30 30 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 77 53 80 / 50 40 40 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 78 55 81 / 50 40 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 79 60 83 / 60 40 40 30
RUIDOSO......................... 51 73 53 76 / 60 50 40 40
CAPULIN......................... 50 78 50 79 / 30 30 30 20
RATON........................... 53 80 52 83 / 30 30 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 52 79 51 82 / 30 30 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 76 50 78 / 50 40 30 30
CLAYTON......................... 57 83 57 85 / 20 30 20 10
ROY............................. 56 80 56 82 / 30 30 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 60 83 60 87 / 30 30 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 84 60 87 / 30 30 30 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 86 62 89 / 20 20 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 60 82 59 85 / 20 20 20 10
PORTALES........................ 60 83 60 85 / 20 20 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 60 83 60 87 / 30 30 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 65 86 64 90 / 40 20 20 10
PICACHO......................... 57 79 57 83 / 50 40 40 30
ELK............................. 53 74 54 78 / 50 40 40 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
150 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 930 AM... SAME PATTERN AS LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES IN
PLACE... WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE FROM DAY TO DAY
WHICH WILL MAKE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE ACTUAL WEATHER. ONE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY APPEARS TO BE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE HEATING POTENTIAL TODAY WITH
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALREADY SHOWING SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN
THE OVERCAST. BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN MODEL CAPE FORECASTS
WITH THE NAM/GFS ONLY INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG. BASED ON
ALREADY SEEING SOME BREAKS AND CURRENT SPC ANALYSIS ALREADY
INDICATING 500 J/KG OVER NE PA EXPECT THAT SOME PLACES WILL AT
LEAST REACH 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME STRONG
CONVECTION WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30
KTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION WITH MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE STORM THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
LTL MVMT OF THE OVERALL PTRN IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE SLY FLOW
CONTG. DFCLT TO LOCATE AND FOLLOW SHRT WVS WILL CONT TO TRIGGER
PATCHES OF SHWRS AND HEAVY. SO...XPCT CONTD WARM TOPPED CONV AND
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKES WHERE 30 TO 40 DBZ SHWRS PRODUCE AN INCH OF
RAIN IN AN HOUR. PWATS CONT WELL ABV NRML APRCHG 2 INCHES AND LTL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAKES FOR THE RISK OF CONTD TRAINING CELLS.
WEAK WV SEEMS TO BE POISED TO PASS NEAR PK HTG SO XPCT INCRSD
SHWR/TRW ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN. SEE NO REASON TO CHG THE CRNT FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE ANTICIPATED PCPN WITH WET GND CONDS AND RVR LVLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RDG OFF THE ATLANTIC CST EDGES WWRD THRU THE PD. THIS PUSHES A
SIGNIFICANT WV MVG NWRD IN THE FLOW WWRD AND SOMEWHAT WEAKENS
IT...LDG TO LESS PCPN FOR THE FCST AREA. STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONV BUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC UNDER THE
BLDG...LESS CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINS.
DRIER AIR REALLY BECOMES APRNT ON THU AS DEEP MOISTURE IS BACK
OVER OH AND RDGG BLDS INTO NY. STILL ENUF INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE
POPS THU AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES MADE.
4 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MORE OF THE SAME INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO
SW FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SLOWLY SHIFTS TO ZONAL FROM THE DEEP MIDWEST TROF. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LONG TERM GOES ON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. MORE FLOODING LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE... SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DVLP ATTM...AND ARE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...INTO THE EARLY EVE. FOR NOW...WE`VE KEPT RESTRICTIONS IN
THE MVFR CAT...AND WE`LL INSERT THUNDER ON AN AS NEEDED BASIS.
IT APPEARS THAT AN AREA OF STEADIER RAINFALL WILL APPROACH FROM
THE S AND SW BY THIS EVE...AND PROLONG RESTRICTIONS AT KBGM/KAVP
THROUGH 06-08Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR...OR PERIODIC MVFR (IN LIGHT BR/HZ)
SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVE.
LTR TNT INTO EARLY WED...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CLDS/FOG
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. AFTER 14-15Z...ALTHOUGH HIT AND MISS
SHRA/TSRA MAY RE-FIRE...WE`LL INDICATE A PREVAILING VFR GROUP FOR
NOW.
.OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SUN...
AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED EACH AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS PSBL. ALSO...EARLY EACH AM...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
LWR CLDS/FOG ARE FORESEEN. OTHWS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1045 AM DISCUSSION
TROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BROUGHT BANDS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION YESTERDAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST AXES GENERALLY IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. POCKETS OF 3
TO 4 INCHES CAUSED HAVOC IN SEVERAL OF THE SUSQUEHANNA TRIBUTARIES
WITH RAPID RISE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HEADWATERS AT CORTLAND ON THE TIOUGHNIOGA...ALONG
WITH SHERBURNE AND NORWICH ON THE CHENANGO RAPIDLY ROSE TO MODERATE
MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS. THIS MORNING...5 LOCATIONS REMAIN UNDER FLOOD
WARNINGS AS THE WATER SLOWLY RECEDES ON THE HEADWATER TRIBS...AND
SURGES INTO THE MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA IN NEW YORK. GENERALLY MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS ARE FORECAST FROM CONKLIN TO WAVERLY.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE...RAINFALL FORECASTS UP TO AN INCH IN THE
NEXT 72 HOURS THAT WERE INJECTED INTO THE HYDRAULIC MODELS DO NOT
SUGGEST ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE RIVER LEVELS WITH ANY NEW
FLOODING. ATMOSPHERIC MODELS SUGGEST A DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET AND INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS LENDS TO A RATHER TENUOUS FORECAST SITUATION...AS WE WILL
REMAIN WITHIN A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE
BOUNDARIES AND AREAS TO FOCUS NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AT THIS
POINT...I WOULD EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR CHANGES TO RIVER
FORECAST LEVELS AT POINTS YET TO BE DETERMINED SHOULD HEAVY SW-NE
ORIENTED BANDING AND TRAINING OF CELLS DEVELOP. THIS IS PRIMARILY
A CONCERN FOR THE TRIBUTARIES...BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MAIN STEMS COULD RESPOND TO HEAVY RAIN IN A QUICK MANNER.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...MLJ
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 930 AM... SAME PATTERN AS LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES IN
PLACE... WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE FROM DAY TO DAY
WHICH WILL MAKE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE ACTUAL WEATHER. ONE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY APPEARS TO BE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE HEATING POTENTIAL TODAY WITH
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALREADY SHOWING SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN
THE OVERCAST. BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN MODEL CAPE FORECASTS
WITH THE NAM/GFS ONLY INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG. BASED ON
ALREADY SEEING SOME BREAKS AND CURRENT SPC ANALYSIS ALREADY
INDICATING 500 J/KG OVER NE PA EXPECT THAT SOME PLACES WILL AT
LEAST REACH 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME STRONG
CONVECTION WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30
KTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION WITH MULTICELL
CLUSTERS THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF CONECTIVE STORM THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
LTL MVMT OF THE OVERALL PTRN IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE SLY FLOW
CONTG. DFCLT TO LOCATE AND FOLLOW SHRT WVS WILL CONT TO TRIGGER
PATCHES OF SHWRS AND HEAVY. SO...XPCT CONTD WARM TOPPED CONV AND
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKES WHERE 30 TO 40 DBZ SHWRS PRODUCE AN INCH OF
RAIN IN AN HOUR. PWATS CONT WELL ABV NRML APRCHG 2 INCHES AND LTL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAKES FOR THE RISK OF CONTD TRAINING CELLS.
WEAK WV SEEMS TO BE POISED TO PASS NEAR PK HTG SO XPCT INCRSD
SHWR/TRW ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN. SEE NO REASON TO CHG THE CRNT FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE ANTICIPATED PCPN WITH WET GND CONDS AND RVR LVLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RDG OFF THE ATLANTIC CST EDGES WWRD THRU THE PD. THIS PUSHES A
SIGNIFICANT WV MVG NWRD IN THE FLOW WWRD AND SOMEWHAT WEAKENS
IT...LDG TO LESS PCPN FOR THE FCST AREA. STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONV BUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC UNDER THE
BLDG...LESS CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINS.
DRIER AIR REALLY BECOMES APRNT ON THU AS DEEP MOISTURE IS BACK
OVER OH AND RDGG BLDS INTO NY. STILL ENUF INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE
POPS THU AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES MADE.
4 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MORE OF THE SAME INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO
SW FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SLOWLY SHIFTS TO ZONAL FROM THE DEEP MIDWEST TROF. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LONG TERM GOES ON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. MORE FLOODING LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG COMBINED WITH A LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL AFFECT EACH TAF SITE. CURRENTLY SHOWERS ARE SE OF KBGM AND EXPECT
THESE STORMS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE WHEN THE SUN
HEATS UP THE LOWER ATMOS AND THE AIR BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
SHOWERS WILL BE MFVR WITH EMBEDDED IFR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WHEN
THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO DIMINISH...IFR CONDITIONS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN
ACTIVITY WILL END...THUS LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.
OUTLOOK... WED THROUGH SAT... VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. AFTN
SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1045 AM DISCUSSION
TROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BROUGHT BANDS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION YESTERDAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST AXES GENERALLY IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. POCKETS OF 3
TO 4 INCHES CAUSED HAVOC IN SEVERAL OF THE SUSQUEHANNA TRIBUTARIES
WITH RAPID RISE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HEADWATERS AT CORTLAND ON THE TIOUGHNIOGA...ALONG
WITH SHERBURNE AND NORWICH ON THE CHENANGO RAPIDLY ROSE TO MODERATE
MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS. THIS MORNING...5 LOCATIONS REMAIN UNDER FLOOD
WARNINGS AS THE WATER SLOWLY RECEDES ON THE HEADWATER TRIBS...AND
SURGES INTO THE MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA IN NEW YORK. GENERALLY MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS ARE FORECAST FROM CONKLIN TO WAVERLY.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE...RAINFALL FORECASTS UP TO AN INCH IN THE
NEXT 72 HOURS THAT WERE INJECTED INTO THE HYDRAULIC MODELS DO NOT
SUGGEST ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE RIVER LEVELS WITH ANY NEW
FLOODING. ATMOSPHERIC MODELS SUGGEST A DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET AND INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS LENDS TO A RATHER TENUOUS FORECAST SITUATION...AS WE WILL
REMAIN WITHIN A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE
BOUNDARIES AND AREAS TO FOCUS NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AT THIS
POINT...I WOULD EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR CHANGES TO RIVER
FORECAST LEVELS AT POINTS YET TO BE DETERMINED SHOULD HEAVY SW-NE
ORIENTED BANDING AND TRAINING OF CELLS DEVELOP. THIS IS PRIMARILY
A CONCERN FOR THE TRIBUTARIES...BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MAIN STEMS COULD RESPOND TO HEAVY RAIN IN A QUICK MANNER.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
941 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 930 AM... SAME PATTERN AS LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES IN
PLACE... WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE FROM DAY TO DAY
WHICH WILL MAKE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE ACTUAL WEATHER. ONE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY APPEARS TO BE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE HEATING POTENTIAL TODAY WITH
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALREADY SHOWING SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN
THE OVERCAST. BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN MODEL CAPE FORECASTS
WITH THE NAM/GFS ONLY INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG. BASED ON
ALREADY SEEING SOME BREAKS AND CURRENT SPC ANALYSIS ALREADY
INDICATING 500 J/KG OVER NE PA EXPECT THAT SOME PLACES WILL AT
LEAST REACH 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME STRONG
CONVECTION WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30
KTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION WITH MULTICELL
CLUSTERS THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF CONECTIVE STORM THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
LTL MVMT OF THE OVERALL PTRN IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE SLY FLOW
CONTG. DFCLT TO LOCATE AND FOLLOW SHRT WVS WILL CONT TO TRIGGER
PATCHES OF SHWRS AND HEAVY. SO...XPCT CONTD WARM TOPPED CONV AND
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKES WHERE 30 TO 40 DBZ SHWRS PRODUCE AN INCH OF
RAIN IN AN HOUR. PWATS CONT WELL ABV NRML APRCHG 2 INCHES AND LTL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAKES FOR THE RISK OF CONTD TRAINING CELLS.
WEAK WV SEEMS TO BE POISED TO PASS NEAR PK HTG SO XPCT INCRSD
SHWR/TRW ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN. SEE NO REASON TO CHG THE CRNT FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE ANTICIPATED PCPN WITH WET GND CONDS AND RVR LVLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RDG OFF THE ATLANTIC CST EDGES WWRD THRU THE PD. THIS PUSHES A
SIGNIFICANT WV MVG NWRD IN THE FLOW WWRD AND SOMEWHAT WEAKENS
IT...LDG TO LESS PCPN FOR THE FCST AREA. STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONV BUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC UNDER THE
BLDG...LESS CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINS.
DRIER AIR REALLY BECOMES APRNT ON THU AS DEEP MOISTURE IS BACK
OVER OH AND RDGG BLDS INTO NY. STILL ENUF INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE
POPS THU AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES MADE.
4 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MORE OF THE SAME INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO
SW FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SLOWLY SHIFTS TO ZONAL FROM THE DEEP MIDWEST TROF. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LONG TERM GOES ON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. MORE FLOODING LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG COMBINED WITH A LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL AFFECT EACH TAF SITE. CURRENTLY SHOWERS ARE SE OF KBGM AND EXPECT
THESE STORMS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE WHEN THE SUN
HEATS UP THE LOWER ATMOS AND THE AIR BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
SHOWERS WILL BE MFVR WITH EMBEDDED IFR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WHEN
THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO DIMINISH...IFR CONDITIONS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN
ACTIVITY WILL END...THUS LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.
OUTLOOK... WED THROUGH SAT... VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. AFTN
SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1020 PM UPDATE...
A MULTITUDE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OCCURRED TODAY.
THINGS ARE FINALLY WINDING DOWN FLASH FLOOD WISE...BUT FLASHIER
RIVER POITNS ARE STILL RESPONDING. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE OUT FOR
CHENANGO RIVER IN SHERBURNE...NORWICH...AND GREENE /WELL INTO
MODERATE CATEGORY EXPECTED FOR SHERBURNE/...AS WELL AS ONEIDA
CREEK AT ONEIDA AND TIOGHNIOGA RIVER AT CORTLAND. ALSO EXPECTING
SUSQUEHANNA AT WAVERLY-SAYRE TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED LEVELS PERSISTING BEYOND THEN. FLOOD WARNING
OUT FOR SUSQUEHANNA AT CONKLIN BUT FORECAST AT THIS TIME JUST
BARELY REACHES FLOOD STAGE AND TAKES UNTIL WEDNESDAY TO DO SO.
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY SO...THUS FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE LOW /THAT IS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAINFALL TO
CAUSE FLOODING/. SOME LOCATIONS ARE NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN INCH
IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THIS VERY MOIST
AIRMASS CAN PUT OUT 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WAS THUS EXTENDED THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY...WITH EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM HUMID AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM GENERALLY EAST OF
I-95 AND UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95...
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE SEMI-ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS (SOME SHOWING BROAD AND FLEETING ROTATIONAL
SIGNATURES)... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION... HAS
SHIFTED SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE CWA... AND IS CURRENTLY PUSHING JUST
EAST OF CENTRAL NC. PRECIP TAPERS OFF WEST OF THIS LINE TO LIGHTER
AND MORE PATCHY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BUT
THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID
EVENING... SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY STREAKING
NORTHWARD FROM FL/ERN GA/SC INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-30 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS REPLICATE THIS EVOLUTION
QUITE WELL AND DEPICT NEARLY SOLID COVERAGE OF RAIN/STORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING. MODELS SHOW A BROAD AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT...
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY LOBE TRACKS NORTH THEN NW OVER
THE NW PIEDMONT INTO THE FOOTHILLS TONIGHT... ATTENDING A 30-35 KT
SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT 1200-2000 J/KG FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE SLIPPING TO THE 800-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVERNIGHT. WHILE LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK... AND WE MAY NOT
NECESSARILY SEE INSTABILITY RECOVERING TO LEVELS INDICATED BY THE
MODELS... THE DECENT 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF
20-30 KTS SUGGEST THAT WE MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPINUP OF A WEAK
TORNADO OR TWO PARTICULARLY NEAR ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES. THE DYNAMICS AND KINEMATIC FIELDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT...
GIVING SUPPORT TO HRRR TRENDS OF DECREASING RAIN/STORM COVERAGE LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
EARLY TONIGHT... TRENDING DOWN TO CHANCE SOUTH TO NORTH. REGARDING
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH... THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH IS DUE TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM... AND THIS LOOKS GOOD AS THE STRONG OFFSHORE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THE
START OF THE WESTWARD PUSH OF THE HIGH-PW AXIS INTO THE WRN PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS. WILL HOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS IS... AS THIS
AREA HAS BEEN INUNDATED WITH RAIN IN RECENT DAYS -- AS MUCH AS 3-5
TIMES THE NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE LAST WEEK -- AND FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE REMAIN QUITE LOW... MOSTLY FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH IN AN
HOUR... AND CERTAINLY THE ACTIVITY NOW MOVING INTO OUR SOUTH IS
CAPABLE OF THESE RAIN RATES. ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES IS EXPECTED. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WITH LOWS...
69-74. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...
WILL FINALLY SEE OUR LONG-AWAITED TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FROM
EAST TO WEST... AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD PUSH
INTO NC. THIS WILL PUSH THE HIGH-PW AXIS AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL
VORTICITY LOBES JUST WEST OF OUR AREA... WITH SLOWLY DECREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. BUT WITH THE PW VALUES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
WRN CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... WE SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING HERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR WESTERN SECTIONS UNTIL 8
PM... AND CONSIDERING THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE... ANY HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING SHOWER COULD
CAUSE STREET FLOODING OR WORSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MID
LEVELS STEADILY DRYING AND WARMING... INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WANING
AS THE PW VALUES FALL LATE IN THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST OF LIKELY
POPS WEST AND JUST CHANCES EAST LOOK GOOD AND WILL MAKE JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BUT OTHERWISE WILL LOWER POPS TO JUST LOW CHANCES
IN THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 80-86 AND LOWS
69-73. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...THOUGH THE RIDGE DOES
START TO BUILD WEST FROM OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ANY CAP IS
WEAK...AND RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEAKEST
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER. IN THE
MEAN...CERTAINLY ON THE GFS...THE AIR MASS APPEARS POSSIBLY A LITTLE
DRIER ON THURSDAY AS OPPOSED TO FRIDAY. IN FACT...ON THE GFS...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON THE GFS
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 1.8 INCHES FRIDAY. EACH DAY A FAIRLY DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...AND FOR THIS FORECAST BOTH DAYS WILL HAVE
ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...MAINLY
DIURNALLY...WITH HIGHER CHANCES WEST OF U.S. 1 AS COMPARED TO OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A BETTER LOW-LEVEL
CAP EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
ARE CLOSE AND BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
AND IF THE AIR MASS ENDS UP BEING A LITTLE MORE MOIST FRIDAY THE
HIGHS FRIDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
ON SATURDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD FURTHER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST...BRINGING
DRIER...SUNNIER CONDITIONS...WITH CALM WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS STRONGER WESTWARD...
EXPECT SIMILAR DRY CONDITIONS...WITH AGAIN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURE EACH DAY INTO THE LOWER 90S DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVELY
MORE STAGNANT FLOW...AND LOW-PROBABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH
DAY. FOR THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SUNDAY CLOSER TO ANY REMAINING MOISTURE...THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE
CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
TUESDAY...GFS AND THE EURO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OR WEAKEN...POSSIBLY ALLOWING MORE
MOISTURE MOVEMENT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT...BUT INCREASING CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE THE FORECAST DRY
ON THE SEVENTH DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO
INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD THE TREND
BE THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR THREE OF 70 ON AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES HAVE SEEN MVFR CIGS COME AND GO IN RECENT
HOURS... VARYING FROM SCT TO BKN... AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM SC ACROSS
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z... AND MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
AND PERIODS OF DOWNPOURS WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES. COVERAGE WILL LOWER AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AFTER 02Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... AND WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS... BUT WE SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO/RDU. CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR TO IFR AT INT/GSO
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MIX OUT TO VFR AT RDU/FAY/RWI BY
16Z. EXPECT STEADY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SE AND SOUTH AT SPEEDS OF
8-12 KTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING INT/GSO
WILL LOWER COVERAGE/IMPACT EXPECTED AT RDU/FAY/RWI. MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 03Z THU (WED EVENING) THROUGH DAYBREAK
THU. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID EVENING... WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH
DAY... BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR STRATUS EACH NIGHT FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING AT ALL SITES. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-078-089.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BAS/DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM HUMID AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY GENERALLY
EAST OF I-95 AND UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95...
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE SEMI-ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS (SOME SHOWING BROAD AND FLEETING ROTATIONAL
SIGNATURES)... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION... HAS
SHIFTED SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE CWA... AND IS CURRENTLY PUSHING JUST
EAST OF CENTRAL NC. PRECIP TAPERS OFF WEST OF THIS LINE TO LIGHTER
AND MORE PATCHY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BUT
THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID
EVENING... SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY STREAKING
NORTHWARD FROM FL/ERN GA/SC INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-30 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS REPLICATE THIS EVOLUTION
QUITE WELL AND DEPICT NEARLY SOLID COVERAGE OF RAIN/STORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING. MODELS SHOW A BROAD AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT...
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY LOBE TRACKS NORTH THEN NW OVER
THE NW PIEDMONT INTO THE FOOTHILLS TONIGHT... ATTENDING A 30-35 KT
SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT 1200-2000 J/KG FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE SLIPPING TO THE 800-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVERNIGHT. WHILE LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK... AND WE MAY NOT
NECESSARILY SEE INSTABILITY RECOVERING TO LEVELS INDICATED BY THE
MODELS... THE DECENT 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF
20-30 KTS SUGGEST THAT WE MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPINUP OF A WEAK
TORNADO OR TWO PARTICULARLY NEAR ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES. THE DYNAMICS AND KINEMATIC FIELDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT...
GIVING SUPPORT TO HRRR TRENDS OF DECREASING RAIN/STORM COVERAGE LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
EARLY TONIGHT... TRENDING DOWN TO CHANCE SOUTH TO NORTH. REGARDING
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH... THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH IS DUE TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM... AND THIS LOOKS GOOD AS THE STRONG OFFSHORE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THE
START OF THE WESTWARD PUSH OF THE HIGH-PW AXIS INTO THE WRN PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS. WILL HOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS IS... AS THIS
AREA HAS BEEN INUNDATED WITH RAIN IN RECENT DAYS -- AS MUCH AS 3-5
TIMES THE NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE LAST WEEK -- AND FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE REMAIN QUITE LOW... MOSTLY FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH IN AN
HOUR... AND CERTAINLY THE ACTIVITY NOW MOVING INTO OUR SOUTH IS
CAPABLE OF THESE RAIN RATES. ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES IS EXPECTED. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WITH LOWS...
69-74. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL AID TO PUSH MOISTURE PLUME
INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA FARTHER WEST
INTO FAR WESTERN NC-EASTERN TN. WHILE THE WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER
AIR IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MOST PART...RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL PLENTIFUL
ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT.
WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WANING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF PARTIAL SUN...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN THE FAR
WEST THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL TREND. MAX TEMPS
LOW-MID 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...THOUGH THE RIDGE DOES
START TO BUILD WEST FROM OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ANY CAP IS
WEAK...AND RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEAKEST
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER. IN THE
MEAN...CERTAINLY ON THE GFS...THE AIR MASS APPEARS POSSIBLY A LITTLE
DRIER ON THURSDAY AS OPPOSED TO FRIDAY. IN FACT...ON THE GFS...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON THE GFS
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 1.8 INCHES FRIDAY. EACH DAY A FAIRLY DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...AND FOR THIS FORECAST BOTH DAYS WILL HAVE
ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...MAINLY
DIURNALLY...WITH HIGHER CHANCES WEST OF U.S. 1 AS COMPARED TO OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A BETTER LOW-LEVEL
CAP EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
ARE CLOSE AND BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
AND IF THE AIR MASS ENDS UP BEING A LITTLE MORE MOIST FRIDAY THE
HIGHS FRIDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
ON SATURDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD FURTHER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST...BRINGING
DRIER...SUNNIER CONDITIONS...WITH CALM WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS STRONGER WESTWARD...
EXPECT SIMILAR DRY CONDITIONS...WITH AGAIN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURE EACH DAY INTO THE LOWER 90S DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVELY
MORE STAGNANT FLOW...AND LOW-PROBABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH
DAY. FOR THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SUNDAY CLOSER TO ANY REMAINING MOISTURE...THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE
CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
TUESDAY...GFS AND THE EURO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OR WEAKEN...POSSIBLY ALLOWING MORE
MOISTURE MOVEMENT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT...BUT INCREASING CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE THE FORECAST DRY
ON THE SEVENTH DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO
INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD THE TREND
BE THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR THREE OF 70 ON AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES HAVE SEEN MVFR CIGS COME AND GO IN RECENT
HOURS... VARYING FROM SCT TO BKN... AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM SC ACROSS
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z... AND MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
AND PERIODS OF DOWNPOURS WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES. COVERAGE WILL LOWER AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AFTER 02Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... AND WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS... BUT WE SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO/RDU. CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR TO IFR AT INT/GSO
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MIX OUT TO VFR AT RDU/FAY/RWI BY
16Z. EXPECT STEADY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SE AND SOUTH AT SPEEDS OF
8-12 KTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING INT/GSO
WILL LOWER COVERAGE/IMPACT EXPECTED AT RDU/FAY/RWI. MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 03Z THU (WED EVENING) THROUGH DAYBREAK
THU. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID EVENING... WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH
DAY... BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR STRATUS EACH NIGHT FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING AT ALL SITES. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-078-089.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BAS/DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM HUMID AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF
I-95 AND UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95...
REST OF TODAY: FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE AREA AND UPSTREAM.
A SUBTLE VORTICITY LOBE IS CURRENTLY RIDING UP THROUGH THE NC
PIEDMONT (AS SHOWN QUITE WELL BY YESTERDAY`S MODELS)... HELPING TO
PROMPT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST COLUMN WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW VERY WELL THIS
AREA OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AS WELL AS THE
MORE DISCRETE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW OVER SOUTHEAST
NC POISED TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. WHILE AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 ARE PARTICULARLY UNDER THE GUN TODAY
GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE... AS LOW AS A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN SOME SPOTS... AND THE CONTINUED DEEP LCL-TO-0C LAYER AND
HIGH PW STILL FAVOR HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TODAY
WITH OBSERVED MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG... THE RAP DOES SHOW VALUES
REACHING 1000-2200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST) WITH 30 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND WITH CURRENT 0-1KM SRH NEAR 150-200 M2/S2
AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 20 KTS FEEDING INTO THE AREA... QUICK SPINUPS OF
WEAK TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. CURRENT TEMPS HAVE
TRENDED VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST HOURLY TEMPS SO FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO
FORECAST HIGHS OF 78-85. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN... CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT A PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR NORTHWARD AND INTO OUR REGION THIS MORNING... WITH THE HIGHEST
PW`S AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOIST AIR TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS... WITH THE 2+ INCH PW`S EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... WITH
AXIS OF 2+ INCH PW`S EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT/WESTERN
PIEDMONT COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY A BIT DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD... ALONG WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR ST LOUIS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AXIS OF
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AT BIT TODAY AND ESPECIALLY BY
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL... EXPECT
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF/TWO-THIRDS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEE FLASH
FLOODING. THUS... PLAN TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA (ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES... NEAR I-95) UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY.
WRT CURRENT SHOWERS AND STORMS... WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA (ESPECIALLY WEST) AS WE
GET CLOSER TO DAY BREAK AS ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE S/W LIFTS NORTHWARD
FROM GA/SC THIS MORNING. THEN SUBSEQUENT WEAK IMPULSES IN THE DEEP
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST...
ALONG WITH A BIT OF BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS MAY
POSSIBLY AIDE IN THE LIFT... VIA UPSLOPE FLOW (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT). IN ADDITION... TO MORE
OF AN ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM THE BACKED WINDS AND 30 TO 40
KT 925 MB WINDS.... EXPECT WE WILL HAVE A WEAK TORNADO THREAT AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT... AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 25
TO 40 KT RANGE... WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN THE 125 TO 175 M2/S2 AND LOW
LCL`S THANKS TO THE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS. THE ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK... WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
WHICH IS ABLE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MORE THAN 400-600 J/KG OF MLCAPE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/WESTERN PIEDMONT... WHERE THE 0-1 KM SRH IS
FAVORABLE. THUS... SPC HAS JUST ADDED A 2 PERCENT TOR THREAT TO THE
DAY 1 OUTLOOK. ANY TOR THREAT APPEARS TO BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS WELL... WITH LESS OF A THREAT ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HAMPERED GREATLY BY THE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST... WHERE WE MAY SEE A FEW MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. LOWS TONIGHT ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW MID 70S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 80-87 DEGREE RANGE FROM WEST TO
EAST... WITH AGAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS... ESPECIALLY
WEST. -BSD
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED BERMUDA HIGH. THIS
WILL AID TO PUSH MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FARTHER WEST INTO FAR WESTERN NC-EASTERN TN. WHILE
THE WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MOST PART...RESIDUAL MOISTURE
STILL PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE A MORE
NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WANING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF PARTIAL SUN...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN THE FAR
WEST THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL TREND. MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY LOW-MID 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY MID-UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO NC WITH THE CENTER OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE
PROJECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUN-MON. THIS PATTERN USUALLY
RESULTS IN HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS. WILL ADVERTISE SUCH A TREND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS NEAR 90-LOWER 90S EXPECTED SUNDAY-MONDAY. WHILE
TOP SOIL MOISTURE CAN HAVE AN IMPACT ON DAYTIME TEMPS...REVIEW OF
DAILY PRECIP AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN
CONCENTRATED IN POCKETS. THUS EXPECT ENOUGH DRYING TO OCCUR THU-SAT
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN-SANDHILLS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SOLIDLY REACH THE
LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CAPPING INVERSION ASSOCIATED
THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL LIMIT/INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STILL...WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL PROBABLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES HAVE SEEN MVFR CIGS COME AND GO IN RECENT
HOURS... VARYING FROM SCT TO BKN... AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM SC ACROSS
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z... AND MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
AND PERIODS OF DOWNPOURS WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES. COVERAGE WILL LOWER AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AFTER 02Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... AND WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS... BUT WE SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO/RDU. CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR TO IFR AT INT/GSO
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MIX OUT TO VFR AT RDU/FAY/RWI BY
16Z. EXPECT STEADY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SE AND SOUTH AT SPEEDS OF
8-12 KTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING INT/GSO
WILL LOWER COVERAGE/IMPACT EXPECTED AT RDU/FAY/RWI. MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 03Z THU (WED EVENING) THROUGH DAYBREAK
THU. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID EVENING... WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH
DAY... BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR STRATUS EACH NIGHT FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING AT ALL SITES. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-078-089.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM HUMID AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF
I-95 AND UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95...
REST OF TODAY: FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE AREA AND UPSTREAM.
A SUBTLE VORTICITY LOBE IS CURRENTLY RIDING UP THROUGH THE NC
PIEDMONT (AS SHOWN QUITE WELL BY YESTERDAY`S MODELS)... HELPING TO
PROMPT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST COLUMN WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW VERY WELL THIS
AREA OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AS WELL AS THE
MORE DISCRETE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW OVER SOUTHEAST
NC POISED TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. WHILE AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 ARE PARTICULARLY UNDER THE GUN TODAY
GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE... AS LOW AS A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN SOME SPOTS... AND THE CONTINUED DEEP LCL-TO-0C LAYER AND
HIGH PW STILL FAVOR HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TODAY
WITH OBSERVED MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG... THE RAP DOES SHOW VALUES
REACHING 1000-2200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST) WITH 30 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND WITH CURRENT 0-1KM SRH NEAR 150-200 M2/S2
AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 20 KTS FEEDING INTO THE AREA... QUICK SPINUPS OF
WEAK TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. CURRENT TEMPS HAVE
TRENDED VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST HOURLY TEMPS SO FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO
FORECAST HIGHS OF 78-85. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN... CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT A PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR NORTHWARD AND INTO OUR REGION THIS MORNING... WITH THE HIGHEST
PW`S AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOIST AIR TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS... WITH THE 2+ INCH PW`S EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... WITH
AXIS OF 2+ INCH PW`S EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT/WESTERN
PIEDMONT COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY A BIT DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD... ALONG WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR ST LOUIS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AXIS OF
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AT BIT TODAY AND ESPECIALLY BY
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL... EXPECT
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF/TWO-THIRDS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEE FLASH
FLOODING. THUS... PLAN TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA (ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES... NEAR I-95) UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY.
WRT CURRENT SHOWERS AND STORMS... WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA (ESPECIALLY WEST) AS WE
GET CLOSER TO DAY BREAK AS ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE S/W LIFTS NORTHWARD
FROM GA/SC THIS MORNING. THEN SUBSEQUENT WEAK IMPULSES IN THE DEEP
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST...
ALONG WITH A BIT OF BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS MAY
POSSIBLY AIDE IN THE LIFT... VIA UPSLOPE FLOW (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT). IN ADDITION... TO MORE
OF AN ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM THE BACKED WINDS AND 30 TO 40
KT 925 MB WINDS.... EXPECT WE WILL HAVE A WEAK TORNADO THREAT AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT... AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 25
TO 40 KT RANGE... WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN THE 125 TO 175 M2/S2 AND LOW
LCL`S THANKS TO THE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS. THE ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK... WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
WHICH IS ABLE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MORE THAN 400-600 J/KG OF MLCAPE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/WESTERN PIEDMONT... WHERE THE 0-1 KM SRH IS
FAVORABLE. THUS... SPC HAS JUST ADDED A 2 PERCENT TOR THREAT TO THE
DAY 1 OUTLOOK. ANY TOR THREAT APPEARS TO BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS WELL... WITH LESS OF A THREAT ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HAMPERED GREATLY BY THE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST... WHERE WE MAY SEE A FEW MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. LOWS TONIGHT ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW MID 70S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 80-87 DEGREE RANGE FROM WEST TO
EAST... WITH AGAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS... ESPECIALLY
WEST. -BSD
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED BERMUDA HIGH. THIS
WILL AID TO PUSH MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FARTHER WEST INTO FAR WESTERN NC-EASTERN TN. WHILE
THE WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MOST PART...RESIDUAL MOISTURE
STILL PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE A MORE
NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WANING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF PARTIAL SUN...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN THE FAR
WEST THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL TREND. MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY LOW-MID 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY MID-UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO NC WITH THE CENTER OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE
PROJECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUN-MON. THIS PATTERN USUALLY
RESULTS IN HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS. WILL ADVERTISE SUCH A TREND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS NEAR 90-LOWER 90S EXPECTED SUNDAY-MONDAY. WHILE
TOP SOIL MOISTURE CAN HAVE AN IMPACT ON DAYTIME TEMPS...REVIEW OF
DAILY PRECIP AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN
CONCENTRATED IN POCKETS. THUS EXPECT ENOUGH DRYING TO OCCUR THU-SAT
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN-SANDHILLS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SOLIDLY REACH THE
LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CAPPING INVERSION ASSOCIATED
THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL LIMIT/INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STILL...WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL PROBABLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM TUESDAY...
IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION... ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH FASHION. EXPECT
THE CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER TODAY... MAYBE NOT EVEN REACHING
VFR AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU. WE SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE BEST COVERAGE TODAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LONG PERIODS OF
VCSH AND VCTS IN THE TAFS FROM THIS MORNING ONWARD. EXPECT LOCATIONS
THAT REACH VFR TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY FALL BACK
INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE MID TO LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY... WITH SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED EAST TO
WEST.
AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM EAST TO WEST STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR TO OUR EAST STARTS TO PUSH
WESTWARD INTO ERN/CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD
CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY... ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-078-089.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
752 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
SLOW TO RETREAT...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A
BLOCKING HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO TIMING AND INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIP EARLIER IN ESPECIALLY THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. DIFFICULT TO GET
A FEEL FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT BUT BASED ON RUC PRECIPITATION
PARAMETERS AS FAR AS BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS OVERNIGHT IS MORE FAVORED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST. STILL
POTENTIAL FOR LIKELY PRECIP TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE SW FCST AREA.
DELAYED INCREASED CHANCES A LITTLE LONGER HERE.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST
CONTINUING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION...THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE AS ESPECIALLY SOME OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS GET WORKED
OVER WITH ANY PRECIP FROM WED NIGHT. LAYER PWS REACH 130-150% OF
NORMAL THROUGH THUR AND INTO FRI FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH PWS
REACHING TO 2 INCHES AND HIGHER THROUGH MUCH OF AREA ESPECIALLY ON
THU AND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH IS ON THE ORDER OF THE 99TH
PERCENTILE PW FOR THE ILN AREA. CURRENT FFA IS MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FCST AREA WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL ENVIRONMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH
CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND FORCING
SPREADS NORTHWARD. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY AS CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION MOVE WEST. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE SLOWLY CHANGING WEATHER
REGIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BECOME SIGNIFICANT BY FRIDAY IN THE
PERSISTENT FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE. MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD WHERE THE
COMBINED THREAT OF ENHANCED 30-40+ LLJ COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO BE ESPECIALLY THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. SOME TIMING AND FORCING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW LONG IT
TAKES FOR THE UPR LOW TO LIFT NORTH AND DECREASE THE FLOW OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE OFF
THE EAST COAST.
CONTINUED THE BELOW NORMAL HIGHS DUE TO THE EXPECTED THICKENING
CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 ON THURSDAY...WITH
SIMILAR HIGHS FOR FOR FRIDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE ABOUT 85.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH STACKED HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL
REGIONS OF THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN. THE OHIO VALLEY (PARTICULARLY
THE UPPER HALF) WILL BE IN FAVORABLE REGION OF LIFT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET JUST TO THE WEST...AND
DIVERGENCE OCCURRING ALOFT.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THIS COULD
END UP AS A CONSERVATIVE FIRST HEADLINE ISSUANCE...AND IT MAY
EVENTUALLY BE EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER IN TIME. POPS GENERALLY
FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD (THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING)...BUT HAVE BEEN INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR ALL LOCATIONS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE
SETUP ARE EXTREMELY SIMILAR...TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL WEAK WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIFFICULT...AND THEIR
PLACEMENT (AND THUS THE PLACEMENT OF ENHANCED AREAS OF FORCING)
DIFFERS FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN OVER 1.50 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SO IT MAY BE
UNTIL THEN THAT THE THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL STARTS TO DIMINISH.
ON SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE...AS
THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC FLATTENS TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE TROUGH TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH FAST
ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP NEAR (OR JUST NORTH OF) THE REGION INTO THE
WEEK. GFSE SPREAD IS QUITE LOW EVEN BY WEDNESDAY...SO THIS ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO BE STABLE...BACKED ALSO BY ECMWF DEPICTIONS.
WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR STILL IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THOUGH CURRENT POPS TREND TOWARD
THE DIURNAL CYCLE...IT IS LIKELY THAT INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES IN THE
QUICK FLOW WILL END UP HAVING LARGE SHORT-TERM INFLUENCES ON
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES (IN EITHER DIRECTION FROM THE STANDARD
DIURNAL CURVE).
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST HAVE NOT BEEN ADJUSTED
GREATLY...BUT THERE WERE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND DOES SEEM LIKELY BY
EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST...HOWEVER...THE
TEMP FORECAST FOR ANY GIVEN DAY OR LOCATION IS SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DECK IS LIMITING THE INITIATION OF
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT
PLUME IS WORKING THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO AND SHOULD TAKE AIM ON THE
CMH/LCK TAFS AROUND 2Z. THE THUNDER THAT IS WITH THE LEADING EDGE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE PRESENT AT THAT TIME AND A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT HERE.
COME DAYBREAK...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WESTWARD
AND AFFECT THE CVG/LUK TAFS BEFORE DAYBREAK. ATTM I PUSHED
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER THIS AND BROUGHT IN PREVAILING
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER IN THE MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS REALLY SPOTTY AS THEY ARE NOT HITTING THE ONGOING
CONVECTION WELL AT ALL. CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF THESE LARGE
AREAS OF RAIN IS STILL IN A HIGHER LEVEL OF DOUBT THAN TYPICAL.
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND THEN MOISTEN THE LOWEST LEVELS. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THIS LOW MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A IFR CLOUD DECK.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
631 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW IN MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWEST...WHILE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO CAROLINA COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ABUNDANT
MOISTURE HERE THROUGH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF AROUND 4 AM...RADAR SHOWING PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF
CWA...HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY IN SW VA. RAP SHOWS THIS
VORT MAX LIFTING THROUGH WV MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS SO
HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS WITH THAT. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WILL PICK UP WITH HEATING TODAY...HAVE LIKELY POPS MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSER THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ALSO
SEVERAL VORT MAXES LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NC AND VA. DEEPER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH REALLY STARTS BUILDING...SHOVING THE UPPER LOW BACK
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MAYBE A
BIT FASTER DOING THIS THAN THE GFS. NAM ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE VORT
MAXES WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH ACROSS THE WV MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...SO
REDEVELOPED LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. PWAT VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND 1.5 INCHES TODAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT AT BAY THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO
WATCH CONVECTION DEVELOP AND WATER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE IF IT
LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL HIT LOCALIZED LOWLAND AREAS THAT HAVE GOTTEN
A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. NAM THEN SHOWS THE
PWATS INCREASING TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLIDE IN...FORTUNATELY OUR MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES HAVE ALSO BEEN OUR DRIEST COUNTIES...WITH 3HR FFG OF 1.5 TO
2.5+ INCHES. DUE TO THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BUT CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO. AGAIN...WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW
THINGS DEVELOP AND PROGRESS WITH THE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS.
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMP FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IN THIS PATTERN...YOU DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO FANCY IN DETERMINING
EXACTLY WHEN REACH AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL THROUGH...
WHEN YOU ARE IN THE SHORT TERM...OR STILL 24 HOURS IN THE FUTURE AND
BEYOND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
RAIN HAS BEEN EFFICIENT EVEN WITH PW(S) OF 1.6 INCHES PAST FEW
DAYS. SO WE ARE CERTAINLY KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AGREEMENT ON VORT MAX AT 500 MB SLIDING NE OF CWA ALONG EASTERN
SLOPES WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO RAINS MAY DECREASE 12Z TO 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS THAT EXITS...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY.
00Z NAM TRIES TO PUSH THE NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN TO OUR
WEST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. EVEN IF THAT WAS THE CASE...HARD TO
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THAT AXIS...COME INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON. WILL IT STREAK DUE
NORTH...OR HAVE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT...BRINGING IT EAST...AND
DEEPER INTO OUR CWA.
TRIED TO LIMIT THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
ABUNDANT LAYERED CLOUDS.
THE ONLY GOOD FACTOR I CAN SEE...CONCERNING OUR FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...IS THAT THE 700 MB FLOW DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
BY THURSDAY...ABOUT 10 KNOTS FASTER THAN CURRENT FLOW.
DID INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY CRW TO
CKB ON THURSDAY...FIGURING ON A BIT MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COMPARED TO BOTH WEST AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH
THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...KEPT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...WITH MAINLY A DIURNAL
TREND. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS BY WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER
WESTWARD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS THAT FOG IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE...WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SUN COMES UP. AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO MIX AROUND...ANTICIPATE A BKN IFR DECK TO REMAIN AND
INCLUDED SOME TEMPOS FOR THAT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING...LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MORE
STRATUS TONIGHT...SO DID NOT GO QUITE AS DENSE ON THE FOG
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THAT WILL ALSO REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE RAIN
FALLS THIS EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSITY AND TIMING OF FOG/LOW CEILINGS MAY
VARY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED TEMPOS LATER
TODAY TO DEAL WITH CONVECTION.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO IFR IN LOWER
CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING POCAHONTAS COUNTY LATE
TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
418 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW IN MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWEST...WHILE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO CAROLINA COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ABUNDANT
MOISTURE HERE THROUGH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF AROUND 4 AM...RADAR SHOWING PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF
CWA...HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY IN SW VA. RAP SHOWS THIS
VORT MAX LIFTING THROUGH WV MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS SO
HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS WITH THAT. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WILL PICK UP WITH HEATING TODAY...HAVE LIKELY POPS MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSER THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ALSO
SEVERAL VORT MAXES LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NC AND VA. DEEPER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH REALLY STARTS BUILDING...SHOVING THE UPPER LOW BACK
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MAYBE A
BIT FASTER DOING THIS THAN THE GFS. NAM ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE VORT
MAXES WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH ACROSS THE WV MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...SO
REDEVELOPED LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. PWAT VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND 1.5 INCHES TODAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT AT BAY THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO
WATCH CONVECTION DEVELOP AND WATER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE IF IT
LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL HIT LOCALIZED LOWLAND AREAS THAT HAVE GOTTEN
A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. NAM THEN SHOWS THE
PWATS INCREASING TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLIDE IN...FORTUNATELY OUR MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES HAVE ALSO BEEN OUR DRIEST COUNTIES...WITH 3HR FFG OF 1.5 TO
2.5+ INCHES. DUE TO THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BUT CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO. AGAIN...WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW
THINGS DEVELOP AND PROGRESS WITH THE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS.
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMP FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IN THIS PATTERN...YOU DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO FANCY IN DETERMINING
EXACTLY WHEN REACH AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL THROUGH...
WHEN YOU ARE IN THE SHORT TERM...OR STILL 24 HOURS IN THE FUTURE AND
BEYOND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
RAIN HAS BEEN EFFICIENT EVEN WITH PW(S) OF 1.6 INCHES PAST FEW
DAYS. SO WE ARE CERTAINLY KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AGREEMENT ON VORT MAX AT 500 MB SLIDING NE OF CWA ALONG EASTERN
SLOPES WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO RAINS MAY DECREASE 12Z TO 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS THAT EXITS...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY.
00Z NAM TRIES TO PUSH THE NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN TO OUR
WEST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. EVEN IF THAT WAS THE CASE...HARD TO
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THAT AXIS...COME INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON. WILL IT STREAK DUE
NORTH...OR HAVE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT...BRINGING IT EAST...AND
DEEPER INTO OUR CWA.
TRIED TO LIMIT THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
ABUNDANT LAYERED CLOUDS.
THE ONLY GOOD FACTOR I CAN SEE...CONCERNING OUR FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...IS THAT THE 700 MB FLOW DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
BY THURSDAY...ABOUT 10 KNOTS FASTER THAN CURRENT FLOW.
DID INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY CRW TO
CKB ON THURSDAY...FIGURING ON A BIT MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COMPARED TO BOTH WEST AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH
THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...KEPT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...WITH MAINLY A DIURNAL
TREND. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS BY WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER
WESTWARD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF CWA TO THE NORTH AT THE MOMENT...AND DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO RETURN AGAIN UNTIL LATER TODAY WITH
HEATING AND THE NEXT VORT MAX COMING FROM THE SOUTH. WITH MOIST
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...IFR FOG EXPECT AT TYPICAL SPOTS
TONIGHT...AND MAY HAVE MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AREA WIDE...AND
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSITY AND TIMING OF FOG/LOW CEILINGS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED TEMPOS LATER TODAY TO DEAL WITH
CONVECTION.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 07/02/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L H M M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO IFR IN LOWER
CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING POCAHONTAS COUNTY LATE
TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1002 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD AND SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN
THE UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. THESE SMALL
CHANGES TO THE BIG PICTURE WILL MEAN ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OF SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER JET-LET LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLAND REGION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS /ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
PRONOUNCED STRONG MID- LEVEL CAP WITH 700 MB TEMPS ABOVE 9C
ACROSS ERN PENN/. THIS FEATURE GENERATED AN RATHER LARGE/ELONGATED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STRONG TSRA WITH RADAR
INDICATING SMALL HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH.
EXPECT TO SEE A WEAKENING TREND TO THE SHOWERS AND TSRA OVER MUCH OF
THE NW ZONES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE HINTED
AT BY THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM...WAS THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF SHOWERS AND
TSRA MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS ERN OHIO AND FAR NWRN PENN ATTM. BOTH OF
THESE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL BRUSH WESTERN WARREN
COUNTY EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND WEST/WHILE DISSIPATING
AFTER 04Z.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY...VARIABLE AMOUNTS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND
HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS /IN THE U60S TO LOWER 70S/ TO MAKE FOR QUITE A
MUGGY SUMMER NIGHT.
A FEW MORE SHOWERS COULD GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE ANTICIPATED AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD WARRANT
NOTHING MORE THAN 20 POPS.
ANY CLEARING WILL CREATE PATCHY FOG DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT
WIND.
CURRENT SFC DEWPOINTS MARK THE APPROX MIN TEMP EARLY THURSDAY. WILL
ADJUST TEMPS UP BY AT LEAST 2-3F ACROSS THE WCENT VALLEYS WHERE
CURRENT SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE U60S TO AROUND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND RATHER MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST
AREAS OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF
THEY WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
THE THOUGHT OF A BIT OF A CAP OF WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE
EASTERN COS FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY IS STILL VALID AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED MORE-SO IN THE EAST THAN OVER THE
WEST...DESPITE MUCH HIGHER CAPES FCST IN THE EAST. COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT WARRANT MORE THAN LOW-END LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND JUST A 20
POP IN THE SE. PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY HIGH IN THE TEMP FORECASTS
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUMPS IN EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY...AND THE
UPPER LOW OPENS/FILLS EVEN MORE. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOCUS AND THEREFORE CHANCES TO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY STIFLE ANY INSTABILITY DUE TO SINKING MOTION AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE NW HALF...AND ISOLD
SHOWERS IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID REMAINS THE RULE AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE MIDWEST UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY
DIURNALLY INTO LATE WEEK.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS DOMINATING THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN
AND RETREATS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY. THE
GFS AND EC DISAGREE ON TIME OF THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER BOTH AGREE
THAT IT WILL PASS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY..AND ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW COULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THAT SYSTEM
WILL USHER IN A PATTERN SHIFT INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SEE A MORE
ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACTING WESTERN AREAS WITH A
N-S ORIENTED BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS JUST WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. EXPECT
TO SEE A WEAKENING TREND TO THE SHOWERS AND TSRA THROUGH
04Z...THOUGH HRRR AND 4KM NAM HINT AT CONVECTION MOVING SLOWLY
INTO FAR NWRN PENN...YET REMAINING WEST OF KBFD.
A FEW MORE SHOWERS COULD GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...BUT LOW AREAL COVERAGE WILL
KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD OF LOWERING CIGS /TO MVFR WITH SOME IFR/ AND LIGHT
FOG AROUND SUNRISE.
EXPECT A RETURN OF DIURNAL CU AND SCT TO LIKELY SHRA/TSRA BY THU
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA. MDT AND LNS
HAVE THE LOWEST THREAT FOR TSTM-RELATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. COVG
AND PROB UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO ONLY MENTION SHRA AT BFD IN THE
MORNING AND WILL ALSO THROW IN VCTS TO ALL BUT LNS/MDT BEFORE THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE CONTROLLING FACTORS OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AND BIG WRN ATLC/BERMUDA RIDGE WILL MORPH A BIT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL NUDGE WWD WHILE THE LOW
FILLS/LIFTS A BIT...BUT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP DRAW THE
DEEP TROPICAL MSTR UP INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DAILY FORECASTS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MTS WILL BE NECESSARY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
910 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD AND SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN
THE UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. THESE SMALL
CHANGES TO THE BIG PICTURE WILL MEAN ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OF SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER JET-LET LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLAND REGION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS /ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
PRONOUNCED.STRONG MID- LEVEL CAP WITH 700 MB TEMPS ABOVE 9C ACROSS
ERN PENN/. THIS FEATURE GENERATED AN RATHER LARGE/ELONGATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STRONG TSRA WITH RADAR INDICATING SMALL
HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
EXPECT TO SEE A WEAKENING TREND TO THE SHOWERS AND TSRA OVER MUCH OF
THE NW ZONES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE HINTED
AT BY THE HRRR AND 4KM NAM...WAS THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF SHOWERS AND
TSRA MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS ERN OHIO AND FAR NWRN PENN ATTM. BOTH OF
THESE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL BRUSH WESTERN WARREN
COUNTY EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND WEST/WHILE DISSIPATING
AFTER 04Z.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY...VARIABLE AMOUNTS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND
HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS /IN THE U60S TO LOWER 70S/ TO MAKE FOR QUITE A
MUGGY SUMMER NIGHT.
A FEW MORE SHOWERS COULD GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE ANTICIPATED AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD WARRANT
NOTHING MORE THAN 20 POPS.
ANY CLEARING WILL CREATE PATCHY FOG DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT
WIND.
CURRENT SFC DEWPOINTS MARK THE APPROX MIN TEMP EARLY THURSDAY. WILL
ADJUST TEMPS UP BY AT LEAST 2-3F ACROSS THE WCENT VALLEYS WHERE
CURRENT SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE U60S TO AROUND 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND RATHER MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST
AREAS OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF
THEY WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
THE THOUGHT OF A BIT OF A CAP OF WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE
EASTERN COS FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY IS STILL VALID AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED MORE-SO IN THE EAST THAN OVER THE
WEST...DESPITE MUCH HIGHER CAPES FCST IN THE EAST. COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT WARRANT MORE THAN LOW-END LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND JUST A 20
POP IN THE SE. PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY HIGH IN THE TEMP FORECASTS
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUMPS IN EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY...AND THE
UPPER LOW OPENS/FILLS EVEN MORE. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOCUS AND THEREFORE CHANCES TO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY STIFLE ANY INSTABILITY DUE TO SINKING MOTION AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE NW HALF...AND ISOLD
SHOWERS IN THE SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID REMAINS THE RULE AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE MIDWEST UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY
DIURNALLY INTO LATE WEEK.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS DOMINATING THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN
AND RETREATS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY. THE
GFS AND EC DISAGREE ON TIME OF THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER BOTH AGREE
THAT IT WILL PASS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY..AND ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW COULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THAT SYSTEM
WILL USHER IN A PATTERN SHIFT INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SEE A MORE
ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS GONE AT 19Z IN ALL BUT MDT...AND THEY ARE BREAKING
UP...TOO. AS THE AFTN WEARS ON AND TEMPS WARM...THE PINPOINT SHRA
THAT HAVE BRIEFLY SHOWN UP ON RADAR SHOULD BECOME BIGGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...ISOLD/SCT MVFR COULD OCCUR. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND DIE DOWN FOR THE MOST PART LATER THIS
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT - ESP IN PLACES WHERE IT
RAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWERED/MVFR CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER WV/OH COULD SLIP INTO BFD AND PERHAPS
JST AROUND SUNRISE ON THURS. EXPECT A RETURN OF DIURNAL CU AND
TSRA ON THURS...BUT MAINLY OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA. MDT AND
LNS HAVE THE LOWEST THREAT FOR TSTM-RELATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
COVG AND PROB UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO ONLY MENTION SHRA AT BFD IN THE
MORNING AND WILL ALSO THROW IN VCSH TO ALL BUT LNS/MDT BEFORE THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE CONTROLLING FACTORS OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AND BIG WRN ATLC/BERMUDA RIDGE WILL MORPH A BIT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL NUDGE WWD WHILE THE LOW
FILLS/LIFTS A BIT...BUT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP DRAW THE
DEEP TROPICAL MSTR UP INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DAILY FORECASTS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MTS WILL BE NECESSARY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
405 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT...DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
AND LEAD TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STAGNANT PATTERN OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST SHOULD CHANGE LATE THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY SLIDE TO THE WEST AND HELP TO REDUCE THE NUMBER
OF SHOWERS WHICH FORM EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE
NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NW ZONES...UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSRA HAS GRADUALLY BLOSSOMED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z
BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND DEVELOP IN MOST PLACES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
THE LATEST 09Z SREF/12Z GEFS FOCUSES AN AREA OF STRONG 925-850 MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS +4SD SWWRLY
LL JET.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE /AND FOR EXAMPLE IT/S 1000-850 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ MIGRATES HOURLY TO NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO ANY PLACE IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS UNDER THE GUN FOR TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED TSRA.
MOST PLACES WILL SEE BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TONIGHT ANYWHERE BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.75 OF AN INCH. IT`S THE FEW LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE SOME
TRAINING LOW-TOPPED/HIGHLY EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WHERE A QUICK
1.5-2 INCHES COULD FALL BRINGING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE LOWEST FFG VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SCENT COUNTIES - MAINLY S
OF THE TURNPIKE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE WRN MTNS. CAPES HAVE CLIMBED
TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG THANKS TO SOME CURRENT...AND EARLIER
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITHIN THE
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
STRONG MICROBURST WINDS...GIVING THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT.
THE OTHER FACET TO THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
WILL BE THE LOW LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVELS...AND UNUSUALLY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS SSWRLY LLJ OF 40 KTS
/APPROX +4SD/ NOSING INTO SCENT PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS LLVL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS EVEN A WEAK...BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WHERE
STRONGER CELLS TRAVEL NE AND OVER LLVL BOUNDARIES. BEST EHI VALUES
ARE OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA AND PEAK AROUND 2 M2/S2.
THE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHCS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
MAINLY DUE TO LACK OF HEATING. 12Z NAM/09Z SREF DOES INDICATE
ANOTHER WAVE RIPPLING QUICKLY NWD INTO THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL MTNS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE FOCUSED
SHRA/TSRA...BUT WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS TO COME IN BEFORE
JUMPING ON THAT LOWER PROBABILITY NOCTURNAL EVENTS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE REMAINS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FFA INTO
WED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE THREAT AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOULD SHIFT SOMEWHAT TO THE NW
ON WED...AS THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TWD ERN
SEABOARD...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND
FILL BY A FEW DECAMETERS. THE PWAT MAX-AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD ON
WED. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AVERAGING 75 PERCENT OR MORE WILL LIMIT
PRECIP IN THE MORNING TO MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS.
CAPE AGAIN THREATENS TO ECLIPSE 1000 BUT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE GET...AND HOW
NUMEROUS THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA BECOME.
HODOGRAPH IS STILL FAIRLY WELL-CURVED AND THE OVERALL WIND PROFILE
IS A BIT STRONGER ON WED. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID REMAINS THE RULE...MUST BE SUMMERTIME. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE MIDWEST UPR
TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA
HIGH INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE
CONVECTIVELY DIURNALLY INTO LATE WEEK.
IT REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP MENTION IN HWO...AND HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR THE
CWA.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL BRING SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR AND BRIEF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS
THEY DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NNE.
ANY CLEARING TONIGHT IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH WET GROUND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WED.
THE WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU MID-WEEK...AS RELATIVELY
STRONG DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW /ORIGINATING IN THE CARIBBEAN/
CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS NWD MSTR FLUX ALONG THE APPLCHNS
INTO CNTRL PA...BTWN THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING MID MS VLY TROUGH AND
WRN ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THIS VERY MOIST AND HUMID
PATTERN...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND TSRA WITH LOCALLY +RA.
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS TO WILL UTILIZE
VCSH/VCTS FOR THE MOST PART.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...IFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
VFR/MVFR LATE MORNING/AFTN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ006-011-
012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT...DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
AND LEAD TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STAGNANT PATTERN OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST SHOULD CHANGE LATE THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY SLIDE TO THE WEST AND HELP TO REDUCE THE NUMBER
OF SHOWERS WHICH FORM EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE
NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NW ZONES...UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSRA HAS GRADUALLY BLOSSOMED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z
BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND DEVELOP IN MOST PLACES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
THE LATEST 09Z SREF/12Z GEFS FOCUSES AN AREA OF STRONG 925-850 MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS +4SD SWWRLY
LL JET.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE /AND FOR EXAMPLE IT/S 1000-850 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ MIGRATES HOURLY TO NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO ANY PLACE IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS UNDER THE GUN FOR TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED TSRA.
MOST PLACES WILL SEE BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TONIGHT ANYWHERE BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.75 OF AN INCH. IT`S THE FEW LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE SOME
TRAINING LOW-TOPPED/HIGHLY EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WHERE A QUICK
1.5-2 INCHES COULD FALL BRINGING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE LOWEST FFG VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SCENT COUNTIES - MAINLY S
OF THE TURNPIKE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE WRN MTNS. CAPES HAVE CLIMBED
TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG THANKS TO SOME CURRENT...AND EARLIER
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITHIN THE
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
STRONG MICROBURST WINDS...GIVING THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT.
THE OTHER FACET TO THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
WILL BE THE LOW LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVELS...AND UNUSUALLY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS SSWRLY LLJ OF 40 KTS
/APPROX +4SD/ NOSING INTO SCENT PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS LLVL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS EVEN A WEAK...BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WHERE
STRONGER CELLS TRAVEL NE AND OVER LLVL BOUNDARIES. BEST EHI VALUES
ARE OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA AND PEAK AROUND 2 M2/S2.
THE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHCS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
MAINLY DUE TO LACK OF HEATING. 12Z NAM/09Z SREF DOES INDICATE
ANOTHER WAVE RIPPLING QUICKLY NWD INTO THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL MTNS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE FOCUSED
SHRA/TSRA...BUT WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS TO COME IN BEFORE
JUMPING ON THAT LOWER PROBABILITY NOCTURNAL EVENTS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE REMAINS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FFA INTO
WED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
THE THREAT AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOULD SHIFT SOMEWHAT TO THE NW
ON WED...AS THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TWD ERN
SEABOARD...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND
FILL BY A FEW DECAMETERS. THE PWAT MAX-AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD ON
WED. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AVERAGING 75 PERCENT OR MORE WILL LIMIT
PRECIP IN THE MORNING TO MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS.
CAPE AGAIN THREATENS TO ECLIPSE 1000 BUT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE GET...AND HOW
NUMEROUS THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA BECOME.
HODOGRAPH IS STILL FAIRLY WELL-CURVED AND THE OVERALL WIND PROFILE
IS A BIT STRONGER ON WED. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE AGAIN...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION
OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
IT REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP MENTION IN HWO...AND HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR THE
CWA.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL BRING SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR AND BRIEF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS
THEY DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NNE.
ANY CLEARING TONIGHT IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH WET GROUND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WED.
THE WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU MID-WEEK...AS RELATIVELY
STRONG DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW /ORIGINATING IN THE CARIBBEAN/
CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS NWD MSTR FLUX ALONG THE APPLCHNS
INTO CNTRL PA...BTWN THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING MID MS VLY TROUGH AND
WRN ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THIS VERY MOIST AND HUMID
PATTERN...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND TSRA WITH LOCALLY +RA.
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS TO WILL UTILIZE
VCSH/VCTS FOR THE MOST PART.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...IFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
VFR/MVFR LATE MORNING/AFTN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ006-011-
012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1210 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
KEEP WARM...MOIST AIR IN PLACE AND LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STAGNANT PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA TO THE WEST AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST
SHOULD CHANGE LATE THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY SLIDE TO THE WEST AND HELP TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS
WHICH FORM EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE NORMALS
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH /PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT/
UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST TODAY IS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE AS PWATS OF
BETTER THAN 2 INCHES RESIDE OVER THE SERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE
STATE. AREAS OF LIFT WILL BE JUST AS DIFFICULT TO PLACE TODAY AS
THEY HAVE BEEN THESE LAST FEW DAYS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE /AND FOR
EXAMPLE IT/S 1000-850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ MIGRATES HOURLY TO
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
ANY PLACE IN THE WATCH IS UNDER THE GUN FOR TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS
AND LOW-TOPPED TSRA.
QPF FCSTS FROM WPC AND RFCS PLACE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
SERN HALF OF THE AREA....WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND.
THE LOWEST FFG VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SCENT COUNTIES - MAINLY S
OF THE TURNPIKE. CAPES WILL ALSO BE A QUESTION MARK IN THE
FORECAST FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. IF THE SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH LONG
ENOUGH...THE CAPES CAN EASILY CLIMB OVER 1200 J/KG. BUT THE DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REALIZE THAT HEATING...ESP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. STILL WORTH A MENTION IN THE HWO
THOUGH.
THE OTHER FACET TO THE HIGHEST LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
WILL BE THE LOW LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVELS...AND UNUSUALLY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS SSWRLY LLJ OF 40 KTS
/APPROX +4SD/ NOSING INTO SCENT PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS LLVL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS EVEN A WEAK...BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WHERE
STRONGER CELLS TRAVEL NE AND OVER LLVL BOUNDARIES. BEST EHI VALUES
ARE OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA AND PEAK AROUND 2 M2/S2.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND WILL
REDUCE POPS TO CHCS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING. AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO THINK ABOUT EXTENDING THE FFA INTO THE
NEXT DAY. BUT WILL NOT MOVE ON THAT THOUGHT JUST YET. THE THREAT
SHOULD SHIFT SOMEWHAT TO THE NW ON WED...AS ALMOST EVERYTHING SHIFTS
TO THE WEST. ATLANTIC RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST...AND
UPPER LOW INCHES WEST AND GIVES HINTS OF FILLING JUST A FEW
DECAMETERS. THE PWAT MAX-AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD ON WED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED WITHOUT MUCH OF A SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY...AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND SCT/NMRS TS/SHRA. CAPE AGAIN THREATENS TO
ECLIPSE 1000 BUT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN
JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE GET. HODOGRAPH STILL FAIRLY WELL- CURVED AND
OVER WIND PROFILE A BIT FASTER ON WED. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER A BIT
MORE POSSIBLE WED THAN TUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONCE AGAIN...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION
OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
IT REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP MENTION IN HWO...AND HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR THE
CWA.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS..LOOK FOR CIGS/VIS TO IMPROVE INTO THE
AFTN HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...ALSO EXPECT AREAL CVRG OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO INCREASE WITH TIME. BRIEF...IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL
BE CONCENTRATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY CLEARING TONIGHT IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH WET GROUND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WED.
THE WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU MID-WEEK...AS RELATIVELY
STRONG DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW /ORIGINATING IN THE CARIBBEAN/
CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS NWD MSTR FLUX ALONG THE APPLCHNS
INTO CNTRL PA...BTWN THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING MID MS VLY TROUGH AND
WRN ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THIS VERY MOIST AND HUMID
PATTERN...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND TSRA WITH LOCALLY +RA.
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS TO WILL UTILIZE
VCSH/VCTS FOR THE MOST PART.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...IFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
VFR/MVFR LATE MORNING/AFTN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
802 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL REPORTS OVER NE TN AND SW VA INDICATE 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS
FALLEN IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. WE ARE GETTING SOME REPORTS OF
FLOODING PROBLEMS AND ROAD CLOSURES IN THIS AREA. RAINFALL RATES
IN THIS AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS IR SATELLTIE
SHOWS WARMER CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WESTERN HALF
OVERNIGHT. THE NAM AND RUC SHOW INCREASING FRONTOGENEIC FORCING
OVER MIDDLE TN AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE EARLY TO ADJUST QPF AMOUNTS TO MATCH THE
TRENDS DISCUSSED ABOVE...AND BRING HOURLY FORECAST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
CLOSWER TO OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 78 70 80 68 / 100 100 90 80 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 79 70 80 67 / 100 100 70 70 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 69 77 68 80 67 / 100 100 90 70 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 79 65 81 65 / 100 80 60 60 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CHEROKEE...CLAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...BRADLEY...
CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...
GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...HANCOCK...HAWKINS...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...MCMINN...
MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST
CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...NORTHWEST
MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...SEVIER
SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...
SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNICOI...UNION...WASHINGTON
TN...WEST POLK.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
204 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME
DEGREE OF LESS ORGANIZATION...AND MORE INDIVIDUAL HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF RAIN. IN THE WEST...THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION...AND GAPS HAVE EXISTED IN THE OVERCAST FOR A FEW
HOURS. THIS WESTERN REGION WILL BE AREA TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE. NO CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION. THE CONCERN STILL
REMAINS TRAINING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED GENEROUS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. HAVE
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PICTURE
TODAY...WET...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77.
THE MORNING UPDATE REFLECTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE THOSE AREAS THAT
WILL EXPERIENCE CATEGORICAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND QPF NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT THE 12Z/8AM GUIDANCE FROM WPC.
HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 250 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OFF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO FADE SHRA THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE
LIFTING REMNANT SHRA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THUS
WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW LIKELY/CHANCE POPS MOST SPOTS ESPCLY
EASTERN HALF EARLY ON.
OTRW MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY...AND IN TURN HELPS PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS NEAR
THE COAST WESTWARD. MODELS ALSO SHOW AT LEAST SOME CHANNELED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PARALLEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TODAY. THIS LIFT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE TIME OF BEST HEATING...AND MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE CURRENT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG/EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A RATHER
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP BANDS
OR STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN A TRAINING SETUP WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THIS IN COMBO WITH PWATS OF NEAR 2
INCHES COULD PROVIDE A VERY EFFICIENT REGIME FOR TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ESPCLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING ESPCLY IF MORE
HEATING IS REALIZED EARLY ON. GUIDANCE AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH
EXACTLY WHERE THE MOST COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP PER HANDLING OF WAVES
BUT AGREE A BIT MORE ON HAVING MORE BANDING THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS SUPPORTED BY DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS SUPPORTS CAT/LIKELY POPS MOST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION SOUTH/EAST. STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN TO FLOOD POTENTIAL PER HIGH FFG IN JULY AND ONLY POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THINK THREAT
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL MIDNIGHT EAST AND OVERNIGHT
WEST FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM FLOODING. KEPT TEMPS ON
THE WARM SIDE OF MAV MOS GIVEN SUCH A WARM START AND POSSIBLE
BREAKS AT TIMES.
BANDS OF SHRA MAY AGAIN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
LINGERING AND UPPER FLOW STAYING PUT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
THE CHANNEL OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AIDED SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE
THE WATCH TO GO FARTHER NW BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY CAN LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTRW RUNNING WITH CAT TO LIKELY POPS WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS WEST. LOW TEMPS MAINLY MUGGY MID 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN BELT/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. UTILIZED HPCQPF FOR PLACEMENT
OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY....THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES ON THE HOLIDAY REMAIN IN THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN
STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET
MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S IN THE EAST...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE EAST. HIGHS COULD WARM INTO THE
MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RICH CLOUD COVER...WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE A DRYING BUT HEATING TREND THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS WWD INTO AND OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY. FRI NIGHT...THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL START TO SHIFT WEST AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION ALTHOUGH
THE WRN CWA APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE EDGE...SO POPS INTO SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE WEST TO LITTLE CHANCE IN THE EAST.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 594 RIDGE.
ASIDE FROM SOME HEAT OF THE DAY/EARLY EVENING STORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
BE REACHING THE 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE ROANOKE
AND SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY...
WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WESTERN SECTIONS HAVE HAD MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LESS PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE GAPS IN
THE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING AND WE EXPECT
INCREASED COVERAGE IN THIS ARE AS MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL
PROGRESSION WESTWARD AS THE CENTER OF THE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. WE EXPECT EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA TO HAVE THE
BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO
LIFR/IFR LEVELS WITH MANY IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND/OR LIGHT FOG. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
OF TODAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTED A BIT
WESTWARD. FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BY THE LATE MORNING.
PROGRESSING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE AXIS OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH...AND THEN WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF A BERMUDA HIGH MOVES
WESTWARD TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GET ADVECTED WEST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO RETROGRADE. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONE
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING JET ALOFT COMBO WITH WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE REGION OF CONCERN IN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED AS A DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL TRAJECTORY STAYS PUT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE LOOKS TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SAW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT PWATS
DURING JULY WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL THREAT OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
RATE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ESPCLY IF
TRAINING IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY THAT WILL BE
NEEDED TO DRIVE THE DEEPER CONVECTION...AND WITH EXACTLY WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA MIGHT SET UP. THUS THINK BEST COURSE IS
TO FINALLY GO AHEAD IN HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CTYS INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT SRN
BLUE RIDGE WHERE GOT SOAKED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-022-
032>034-043-044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ035-
045>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1258 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME
DEGREE OF LESS ORGANIZATION...AND MORE INDIVIDUAL HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF RAIN. IN THE WEST...THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION...AND GAPS HAVE EXISTED IN THE OVERCAST FOR A FEW
HOURS. THIS WESTERN REGION WILL BE AREA TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE. NO CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION. THE CONCERN STILL
REMAINS TRAINING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED GENEROUS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. HAVE
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PICTURE
TODAY...WET...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77.
THE MORNING UPDATE REFLECTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE THOSE AREAS THAT
WILL EXPERIENCE CATEGORICAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND QPF NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT THE 12Z/8AM GUIDANCE FROM WPC.
HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 250 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OFF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO FADE SHRA THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE
LIFTING REMNANT SHRA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THUS
WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW LIKELY/CHANCE POPS MOST SPOTS ESPCLY
EASTERN HALF EARLY ON.
OTRW MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY...AND IN TURN HELPS PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS NEAR
THE COAST WESTWARD. MODELS ALSO SHOW AT LEAST SOME CHANNELED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PARALLEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TODAY. THIS LIFT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE TIME OF BEST HEATING...AND MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE CURRENT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG/EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A RATHER
STRONG UNDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP BANDS OR
STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN A TRAINING SETUP WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THIS IN COMBO WITH PWATS OF NEAR 2
INCHES COULD PROVIDE A VERY EFFICENT REGIME FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ESPCLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING ESPCLY IF MORE HEATING IS
REALIZED EARLY ON. GUIDANCE AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
MOST COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP PER HANDLING OF WAVES BUT AGREE A BIT
MORE ON HAVING MORE BANDING THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SUPPORTED
BY DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SUPPORTS
CAT/LIKELY POPS MOST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAIN MENTION SOUTH/EAST. STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN TO FLOOD
POTENTIAL PER HIGH FFG IN JULY AND ONLY POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THINK THREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EAST AND OVERNIGHT WEST FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MAV MOS GIVEN SUCH A WARM
START AND POSSIBLE BREAKS AT TIMES.
BANDS OF SHRA MAY AGAIN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
LINGERING AND UPPER FLOW STAYING PUT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
THE CHANNEL OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AIDED SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE
THE WATCH TO GO FARTHER NW BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY CAN LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTRW RUNNING WITH CAT TO LIKELY POPS WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS WEST. LOW TEMPS MAINLY MUGGY MID 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN BELT/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. UTILIZED HPCQPF FOR PLACEMENT
OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY....THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES ON THE HOLIDAY REMAIN IN THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN
STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET
MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S IN THE EAST...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE EAST. HIGHS COULD WARM INTO THE
MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RICH CLOUD COVER...WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE A DRYING BUT HEATING TREND THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS WWD INTO AND OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY. FRI NIGHT...THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL START TO SHIFT WEST AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION ALTHOUGH
THE WRN CWA APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE EDGE...SO POPS INTO SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE WEST TO LITTLE CHANCE IN THE EAST.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 594 RIDGE.
ASIDE FROM SOME HEAT OF THE DAY/EARLY EVENING STORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
BE REACHING THE 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE ROANOKE
AND SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN STARTING TO PUSH BACK NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS ATTM WITH SOME OF THIS RAINFALL LIKELY TO
AFFECT MANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MOST SPOTS EXCLUDING
PERHAPS KLWB THIS MORNING WITH PERIODIC MVFR VSBYS IN A FEW OF
THE HEAVIER SHRA. ALSO A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AHEAD OF
THE SHRA EARLY ON ACROSS THE EAST...AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE CIGS REMAIN BELOW 1K FT.
ADDITIONAL CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS MAY EXPERIENCE OCNL
VFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SO
INCLUDING A VCTS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PREVAILING SHRA IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SE WVA SITES WHERE THINKING SHRA MAY END UP
LESS LATER ON.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG LIKELY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STALLED UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION. ALSO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BY A GENEROUS FLOW FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...WITH PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING CHANCES
OF A BROADER EXPANSE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GET ADVECTED WEST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO RETROGRADE. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONE
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING JET ALOFT COMBO WITH WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE REGION OF CONCERN IN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED AS A DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL TRAJECTORY STAYS PUT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE LOOKS TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SAW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT PWATS
DURING JULY WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL THREAT OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
RATE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ESPCLY IF
TRAINING IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY THAT WILL BE
NEEDED TO DRIVE THE DEEPER CONVECTION...AND WITH EXACTLY WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA MIGHT SET UP. THUS THINK BEST COURSE IS
TO FINALLY GO AHEAD IN HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CTYS INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT SRN
BLUE RIDGE WHERE GOT SOAKED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-022-
032>034-043-044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ035-
045>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/KM
HYDROLOGY...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1234 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PICTURE
TODAY...WET...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77.
THE MORNING UPDATE REFLECTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE THOSE AREAS THAT
WILL EXPERIENCE CATEGORICAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND QPF NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT THE 12Z/8AM GUIDANCE FROM WPC.
HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 250 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OFF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO FADE SHRA THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE
LIFTING REMNANT SHRA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THUS
WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW LIKELY/CHANCE POPS MOST SPOTS ESPCLY
EASTERN HALF EARLY ON.
OTRW MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY...AND IN TURN HELPS PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS NEAR
THE COAST WESTWARD. MODELS ALSO SHOW AT LEAST SOME CHANNELED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PARALLEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TODAY. THIS LIFT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE TIME OF BEST HEATING...AND MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE CURRENT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG/EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A RATHER
STRONG UNDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP BANDS OR
STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN A TRAINING SETUP WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THIS IN COMBO WITH PWATS OF NEAR 2
INCHES COULD PROVIDE A VERY EFFICENT REGIME FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ESPCLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING ESPCLY IF MORE HEATING IS
REALIZED EARLY ON. GUIDANCE AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
MOST COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP PER HANDLING OF WAVES BUT AGREE A BIT
MORE ON HAVING MORE BANDING THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SUPPORTED
BY DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SUPPORTS
CAT/LIKELY POPS MOST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAIN MENTION SOUTH/EAST. STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN TO FLOOD
POTENTIAL PER HIGH FFG IN JULY AND ONLY POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THINK THREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EAST AND OVERNIGHT WEST FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MAV MOS GIVEN SUCH A WARM
START AND POSSIBLE BREAKS AT TIMES.
BANDS OF SHRA MAY AGAIN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
LINGERING AND UPPER FLOW STAYING PUT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
THE CHANNEL OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AIDED SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE
THE WATCH TO GO FARTHER NW BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY CAN LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTRW RUNNING WITH CAT TO LIKELY POPS WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS WEST. LOW TEMPS MAINLY MUGGY MID 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN BELT/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. UTILIZED HPCQPF FOR PLACEMENT
OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY....THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES ON THE HOLIDAY REMAIN IN THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN
STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET
MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S IN THE EAST...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE EAST. HIGHS COULD WARM INTO THE
MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RICH CLOUD COVER...WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE A DRYING BUT HEATING TREND THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS WWD INTO AND OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY. FRI NIGHT...THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL START TO SHIFT WEST AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION ALTHOUGH
THE WRN CWA APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE EDGE...SO POPS INTO SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE WEST TO LITTLE CHANCE IN THE EAST.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 594 RIDGE.
ASIDE FROM SOME HEAT OF THE DAY/EARLY EVENING STORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
BE REACHING THE 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE ROANOKE
AND SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN STARTING TO PUSH BACK NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS ATTM WITH SOME OF THIS RAINFALL LIKELY TO
AFFECT MANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MOST SPOTS EXCLUDING
PERHAPS KLWB THIS MORNING WITH PERIODIC MVFR VSBYS IN A FEW OF
THE HEAVIER SHRA. ALSO A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AHEAD OF
THE SHRA EARLY ON ACROSS THE EAST...AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE CIGS REMAIN BELOW 1K FT.
ADDITIONAL CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS MAY EXPERIENCE OCNL
VFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SO
INCLUDING A VCTS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PREVAILING SHRA IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SE WVA SITES WHERE THINKING SHRA MAY END UP
LESS LATER ON.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG LIKELY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STALLED UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION. ALSO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BY A GENEROUS FLOW FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...WITH PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING CHANCES
OF A BROADER EXPANSE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GET ADVECTED WEST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO RETROGRADE. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONE
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING JET ALOFT COMBO WITH WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE REGION OF CONCERN IN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED AS A DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL TRAJECTORY STAYS PUT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE LOOKS TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SAW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT PWATS
DURING JULY WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL THREAT OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
RATE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ESPCLY IF
TRAINING IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY THAT WILL BE
NEEDED TO DRIVE THE DEEPER CONVECTION...AND WITH EXACTLY WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA MIGHT SET UP. THUS THINK BEST COURSE IS
TO FINALLY GO AHEAD IN HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CTYS INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT SRN
BLUE RIDGE WHERE GOT SOAKED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-022-
032>034-043-044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ035-
045>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/KM
HYDROLOGY...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1011 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PICTURE
TODAY...WET...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77.
THE MORNING UPDATE REFLECTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE THOSE AREAS THAT
WILL EXPERIENCE CATEGORICAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND QPF NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT THE 12Z/8AM GUIDANCE FROM WPC.
HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 250 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OFF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO FADE SHRA THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE
LIFTING REMNANT SHRA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THUS
WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW LIKELY/CHANCE POPS MOST SPOTS ESPCLY
EASTERN HALF EARLY ON.
OTRW MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY...AND IN TURN HELPS PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS NEAR
THE COAST WESTWARD. MODELS ALSO SHOW AT LEAST SOME CHANNELED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PARALLEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TODAY. THIS LIFT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE TIME OF BEST HEATING...AND MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE CURRENT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG/EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A RATHER
STRONG UNDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP BANDS OR
STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN A TRAINING SETUP WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THIS IN COMBO WITH PWATS OF NEAR 2
INCHES COULD PROVIDE A VERY EFFICENT REGIME FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ESPCLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING ESPCLY IF MORE HEATING IS
REALIZED EARLY ON. GUIDANCE AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
MOST COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP PER HANDLING OF WAVES BUT AGREE A BIT
MORE ON HAVING MORE BANDING THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SUPPORTED
BY DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SUPPORTS
CAT/LIKELY POPS MOST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAIN MENTION SOUTH/EAST. STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN TO FLOOD
POTENTIAL PER HIGH FFG IN JULY AND ONLY POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THINK THREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EAST AND OVERNIGHT WEST FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MAV MOS GIVEN SUCH A WARM
START AND POSSIBLE BREAKS AT TIMES.
BANDS OF SHRA MAY AGAIN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
LINGERING AND UPPER FLOW STAYING PUT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
THE CHANNEL OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AIDED SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE
THE WATCH TO GO FARTHER NW BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY CAN LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTRW RUNNING WITH CAT TO LIKELY POPS WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS WEST. LOW TEMPS MAINLY MUGGY MID 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN BELT/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. UTILIZED HPCQPF FOR PLACEMENT
OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY....THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES ON THE HOLIDAY REMAIN IN THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN
STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET
MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S IN THE EAST...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE EAST. HIGHS COULD WARM INTO THE
MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RICH CLOUD COVER...WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF NOON EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN BUILDING
WWD THIS PERIOD AND PUTTING AN END TO THE WETTER PATTERN.
HOWEVER...IN ITS PLACE WILL BE A HOT...HUMID AIRMASS WITH THE DAILY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT IS TYPICAL
OF MOST SUMMERS AROUND HERE. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT WHILE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 80S MOUNTAINS TO
SOME 90S OUT EAST...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY...AS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE TRANSITION BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO LESS RAIN AND MORE
HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN STARTING TO PUSH BACK NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS ATTM WITH SOME OF THIS RAINFALL LIKELY TO
AFFECT MANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MOST SPOTS EXCLUDING
PERHAPS KLWB THIS MORNING WITH PERIODIC MVFR VSBYS IN A FEW OF
THE HEAVIER SHRA. ALSO A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AHEAD OF
THE SHRA EARLY ON ACROSS THE EAST...AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE CIGS REMAIN BELOW 1K FT.
ADDITIONAL CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS MAY EXPERIENCE OCNL
VFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SO
INCLUDING A VCTS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PREVAILING SHRA IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SE WVA SITES WHERE THINKING SHRA MAY END UP
LESS LATER ON.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG LIKELY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STALLED UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION. ALSO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BY A GENEROUS FLOW FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...WITH PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING CHANCES
OF A BROADER EXPANSE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GET ADVECTED WEST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO RETROGRADE. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONE
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING JET ALOFT COMBO WITH WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE REGION OF CONCERN IN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED AS A DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL TRAJECTORY STAYS PUT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE LOOKS TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SAW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT PWATS
DURING JULY WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL THREAT OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
RATE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ESPCLY IF
TRAINING IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY THAT WILL BE
NEEDED TO DRIVE THE DEEPER CONVECTION...AND WITH EXACTLY WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA MIGHT SET UP. THUS THINK BEST COURSE IS
TO FINALLY GO AHEAD IN HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CTYS INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT SRN
BLUE RIDGE WHERE GOT SOAKED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-022-
032>034-043-044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ035-045>047-058-
059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/KM
HYDROLOGY...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
701 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OFF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO FADE SHRA THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE
LIFTING REMNANT SHRA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THUS
WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW LIKELY/CHANCE POPS MOST SPOTS ESPCLY
EASTERN HALF EARLY ON.
OTRW MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY...AND IN TURN HELPS PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS NEAR
THE COAST WESTWARD. MODELS ALSO SHOW AT LEAST SOME CHANNELED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PARALLEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TODAY. THIS LIFT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE TIME OF BEST HEATING...AND MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE CURRENT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG/EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A RATHER
STRONG UNDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP BANDS OR
STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN A TRAINING SETUP WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THIS IN COMBO WITH PWATS OF NEAR 2
INCHES COULD PROVIDE A VERY EFFICENT REGIME FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ESPCLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING ESPCLY IF MORE HEATING IS
REALIZED EARLY ON. GUIDANCE AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
MOST COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP PER HANDLING OF WAVES BUT AGREE A BIT
MORE ON HAVING MORE BANDING THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SUPPORTED
BY DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SUPPORTS
CAT/LIKELY POPS MOST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAIN MENTION SOUTH/EAST. STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN TO FLOOD
POTENTIAL PER HIGH FFG IN JULY AND ONLY POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THINK THREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EAST AND OVERNIGHT WEST FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MAV MOS GIVEN SUCH A WARM
START AND POSSIBLE BREAKS AT TIMES.
BANDS OF SHRA MAY AGAIN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
LINGERING AND UPPER FLOW STAYING PUT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
THE CHANNEL OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AIDED SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE
THE WATCH TO GO FARTHER NW BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY CAN LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTRW RUNNING WITH CAT TO LIKELY POPS WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS WEST. LOW TEMPS MAINLY MUGGY MID 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN BELT/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. UTILIZED HPCQPF FOR PLACEMENT
OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY....THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES ON THE HOLIDAY REMAIN IN THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN
STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET
MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S IN THE EAST...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE EAST. HIGHS COULD WARM INTO THE
MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RICH CLOUD COVER...WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF NOON EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN BUILDING
WWD THIS PERIOD AND PUTTING AN END TO THE WETTER PATTERN.
HOWEVER...IN ITS PLACE WILL BE A HOT...HUMID AIRMASS WITH THE DAILY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT IS TYPICAL
OF MOST SUMMERS AROUND HERE. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT WHILE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 80S MOUNTAINS TO
SOME 90S OUT EAST...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY...AS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE TRANSITION BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO LESS RAIN AND MORE
HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN STARTING TO PUSH BACK NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS ATTM WITH SOME OF THIS RAINFALL LIKELY TO
AFFECT MANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MOST SPOTS EXCLUDING
PERHAPS KLWB THIS MORNING WITH PERIODIC MVFR VSBYS IN A FEW OF
THE HEAVIER SHRA. ALSO A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AHEAD OF
THE SHRA EARLY ON ACROSS THE EAST...AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE CIGS REMAIN BELOW 1K FT.
ADDITIONAL CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS MAY EXPERIENCE OCNL
VFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SO
INCLUDING A VCTS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PREVAILING SHRA IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SE WVA SITES WHERE THINKING SHRA MAY END UP
LESS LATER ON.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG LIKELY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STALLED UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION. ALSO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BY A GENEROUS FLOW FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...WITH PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING CHANCES
OF A BROADER EXPANSE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GET ADVECTED WEST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO RETROGRADE. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONE
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING JET ALOFT COMBO WITH WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE REGION OF CONCERN IN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED AS A DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL TRAJECTORY STAYS PUT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE LOOKS TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SAW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT PWATS
DURING JULY WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL THREAT OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
RATE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ESPCLY IF
TRAINING IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY THAT WILL BE
NEEDED TO DRIVE THE DEEPER CONVECTION...AND WITH EXACTLY WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA MIGHT SET UP. THUS THINK BEST COURSE IS
TO FINALLY GO AHEAD IN HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CTYS INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT SRN
BLUE RIDGE WHERE GOT SOAKED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-022-
032>034-043-044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ035-045>047-058-
059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/KM
HYDROLOGY...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
417 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OFF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO FADE SHRA THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE
LIFTING REMNANT SHRA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THUS
WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW LIKELY/CHANCE POPS MOST SPOTS ESPCLY
EASTERN HALF EARLY ON.
OTRW MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY...AND IN TURN HELPS PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS NEAR
THE COAST WESTWARD. MODELS ALSO SHOW AT LEAST SOME CHANNELED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PARALLEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TODAY. THIS LIFT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE TIME OF BEST HEATING...AND MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE CURRENT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG/EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A RATHER
STRONG UNDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP BANDS OR
STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN A TRAINING SETUP WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THIS IN COMBO WITH PWATS OF NEAR 2
INCHES COULD PROVIDE A VERY EFFICENT REGIME FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ESPCLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING ESPCLY IF MORE HEATING IS
REALIZED EARLY ON. GUIDANCE AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
MOST COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP PER HANDLING OF WAVES BUT AGREE A BIT
MORE ON HAVING MORE BANDING THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SUPPORTED
BY DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SUPPORTS
CAT/LIKELY POPS MOST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAIN MENTION SOUTH/EAST. STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN TO FLOOD
POTENTIAL PER HIGH FFG IN JULY AND ONLY POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THINK THREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EAST AND OVERNIGHT WEST FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MAV MOS GIVEN SUCH A WARM
START AND POSSIBLE BREAKS AT TIMES.
BANDS OF SHRA MAY AGAIN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
LINGERING AND UPPER FLOW STAYING PUT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
THE CHANNEL OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AIDED SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE
THE WATCH TO GO FARTHER NW BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY CAN LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTRW RUNNING WITH CAT TO LIKELY POPS WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS WEST. LOW TEMPS MAINLY MUGGY MID 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN BELT/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. UTILIZED HPCQPF FOR PLACEMENT
OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY....THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES ON THE HOLIDAY REMAIN IN THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN
STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET
MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S IN THE EAST...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE EAST. HIGHS COULD WARM INTO THE
MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RICH CLOUD COVER...WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF NOON EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN BUILDING
WWD THIS PERIOD AND PUTTING AN END TO THE WETTER PATTERN.
HOWEVER...IN ITS PLACE WILL BE A HOT...HUMID AIRMASS WITH THE DAILY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT IS TYPICAL
OF MOST SUMMERS AROUND HERE. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT WHILE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 80S MOUNTAINS TO
SOME 90S OUT EAST...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY...AS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE TRANSITION BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO LESS RAIN AND MORE
HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SHOWED
NORTH END OF PRECIPITATION ERODING/DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. SPOTTY
SHOWERS MAY REACH BCB IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. MORE
CONCENTRATED SHRAS/TSRA MAY AFFECT KDAN...WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...LAMP GUIDANCE
IS REALLY AGGRESSIVE WITH ONSET OF IFR CIGS TONIGHT MOST STATIONS.
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS WHICH RECIEVED RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WAS LIMITED AND THUS SHOULD HINDER
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
OUR NEXT SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
ARRIVE AROUND 12Z/8AM ON TUESDAY...AND BRING A GENEROUS SWATH OF
RAIN INTO AN AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KMWK-KLYH-KFVX
LINE BY 18Z/2PM TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STALLED UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION. ALSO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BY A GENEROUS FLOW FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...WITH PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING CHANCES
OF A BROADER EXPANSE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GET ADVECTED WEST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO RETROGRADE. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONE
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING JET ALOFT COMBO WITH WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE REGION OF CONCERN IN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED AS A DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL TRAJECTORY STAYS PUT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE LOOKS TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SAW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT PWATS
DURING JULY WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL THREAT OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
RATE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ESPCLY IF
TRAINING IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY THAT WILL BE
NEEDED TO DRIVE THE DEEPER CONVECTION...AND WITH EXACTLY WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA MIGHT SET UP. THUS THINK BEST COURSE IS
TO FINALLY GO AHEAD IN HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CTYS INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT SRN
BLUE RIDGE WHERE GOT SOAKED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-022-
032>034-043-044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ035-045>047-058-
059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/KK/KM
HYDROLOGY...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
130 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE EAST COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OFFER THE
REGION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT MONDAY...
TEMPERATURES AND POPS SHAPED ACCORDING TO LATEST WSR-88D
AND OBS TREND. BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.
AS OF 749 PM EDT MONDAY...
LACK OF ANY TRIGGER/SHRTWVS...WITH ACTUALLY MOST OF THE REGION IN
NVA/SINKING MOTION...KEPT STORMS TO A MINIMUM TODAY. ATTM...LINE
OF STORMS SLOWLY APPROACHING FAR SW VA...SNEAKING INTO KJFZ OVER
THE NEXT HOUR IS ASSOC WITH AN UPPER WAVE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE RNK/RLX CWA BORDER. IF THUNDER REMAINS...CONSIDERING
ITS SLOW MOVEMENT AND MORE RAIN TO THE SW...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.
POSSIBLY ANOTHER DEVELOPING LINE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT SHOULD
INCREASE TONIGHT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHSIDE LATER TONIGHT...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE TWO REGIONS WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS
OVERNIGHT...ALSO THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT CONTINUING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
ANOTHER FEATURE WE ARE MONITORING IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING NORTH THROUGH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
THROUGH OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...STARTING AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY THOSE REGIONS ALONG
THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO DEW POINT VALUES IN THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. ON TUESDAY...LOWER HIGHS AS COMPARED
TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED THANKS TO GREATER ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION AS COMPARED TO TODAY. A MIX OF LOW TO MID 70S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
FORECAST WILL MAINLY DEAL WITH THE SRLY FLOW AND RAIN/SHOWERS AND
TSRA OFF AND ON THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
WRN ATLANTIC RETROGRADES SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN
BELT/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE EMPHASIS MORE ON
RAIN OVER THE EAST TO THE WRN CWA.
THE MODELS ARE VARYING ON THE DEGREE OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY NIGHT-
THU...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IN THIS TIME FRAME THE HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS AND WHAT TIMES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AS PWATS STAY
IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TOWARD THE ECMWF/GFS SINCE THE NAM WAS SHOWING MORE
SPORADIC BULLSEYES WITH QPF AND DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL THIS MORNING
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL PLACEMENT.
FOR SENSIBLE WX...TUE NIGHT WILL SEE THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS IMPULSES SHIFT NWD FROM SC INTO
CENTRAL VA. BY WEDNESDAY ALL OF THE CWA SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME
RAIN...WITH ECMWF/GFS HITTING MORE THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS NORTH
INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS BETTER...WITH POSSIBLY LESS COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AS THE FLOW TURNS SE.
WED NIGHT-THU....WE START TO SEE THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WWD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE
TN/OHIO VALLEYS. WILL BE LOWERING POPS IN THE EAST TO CHANCE WED
NIGHT WHILE KEEPING LIKELYS IN THE SW.
NOT SOLD ON COMPLETELY DRYING OUT THE EAST THURSDAY AS THE NAM
INDICATES GIVEN THE AIRMASS REMAINING TROPICAL...SO THINK 40/50 POPS
EAST TO LIKELYS WEST SHOULD DO IT FOR THURSDAY.
ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD THE THREAT OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT IT CLOSE THE ECMWF/GFS WITH LOWS STAYING
WARM AND HIGHS A LITTLE COOL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY BUT WARMING IT
SOME IN THE EAST THURSDAY WITH SOME MORE SUN POSSIBLE. SO BASICALLY
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS 70S WEST TO LOWER
80S EAST WED...WARMING TO MID 80S EAST THURSDAY WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
STAY IN THE 70S OVERALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF NOON EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN BUILDING
WWD THIS PERIOD AND PUTTING AN END TO THE WETTER PATTERN.
HOWEVER...IN ITS PLACE WILL BE A HOT...HUMID AIRMASS WITH THE DAILY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT IS TYPICAL
OF MOST SUMMERS AROUND HERE. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT WHILE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 80S MOUNTAINS TO
SOME 90S OUT EAST...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY...AS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE TRANSITION BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO LESS RAIN AND MORE
HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SHOWED
NORTH END OF PRECIPITATION ERODING/DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. SPOTTY
SHOWERS MAY REACH BCB IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. MORE
CONCENTRATED SHRAS/TSRA MAY AFFECT KDAN...WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...LAMP GUIDANCE
IS REALLY AGGRESSIVE WITH ONSET OF IFR CIGS TONIGHT MOST STATIONS.
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS WHICH RECIEVED RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WAS LIMITED AND THUS SHOULD HINDER
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
OUR NEXT SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
ARRIVE AROUND 12Z/8AM ON TUESDAY...AND BRING A GENEROUS SWATH OF
RAIN INTO AN AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KMWK-KLYH-KFVX
LINE BY 18Z/2PM TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STALLED UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION. ALSO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BY A GENEROUS FLOW FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...WITH PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING CHANCES
OF A BROADER EXPANSE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE CONVECTIVE AND ISOLATED NATURE OF PRECIPITATION THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND INTO THE START OF TONIGHT OFFER THE SAME CHALLENGE
REGARDING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH POTENTIAL. ISSUE A WATCH FOR A BROAD
AREA...AND WE MIGHT GET A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THIS VAST AREA WITH HEAVY
CELLS THAT MANAGE TO TRAIN ENOUGH TO PROMPT FLASH FLOODING. THE OTHER
OPTION IS TO HOLD OFF ON WATCHES UNTIL/IF ONGOING CELLS APPEAR THEY
ARE GOING TO LINE UP WITH THE FEW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY
RAIN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN TARGET THAT SPECIFIC AREA.
THEN WE MIGHT HAVE A WATCH FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF
A WARNING...ASSUMING ONE IS NEEDED. GOING TO YIELD TO THIS SECOND
SCENARIO FOR THE ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
HOT SPOTS TO WATCH ARE SOUTHWEST WILKES COUNTY NC...CENTRAL
ALLEGHANY CO NC...AND PORTIONS OF CAMPBELL...APPOMATTOX...AND
CHARLOTTE COUNTIES IN VA.
REGARDING TUESDAY...WHILE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GREATER...BASIN
AVERAGE EXPECTED 18 HR QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EVEN 6 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THIS SAME REGION IS ROUGHLY THREE TIMES THIS
QUANTITY. WILL HOLD ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME FOR THE DAYTIME
TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...KK/KM
SHORT TERM...DS/WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/KK/KM
HYDROLOGY...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO NORTHERN MISSOURI
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. A WEAK
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
IS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO PENETRATE THE DRY AIR OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 70S. AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE STATE
TONIGHT...SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...PIECE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WEAK LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF FEATURES SHOULD BRING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BKN TO OVC DECK TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY SHOWERS EITHER CLOSER TO THIS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND HAVE LEFT AN ISOLATED MENTION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL REFLECTION WILL EXIT FAR
NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING. ANTICIPATE
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND SPOTTY SHOWERS UNTIL THESE FEATURES
DEPART. IN THE AFTERNOON...THE NAM DEVELOPS UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT ITS TOUGH TO
IDENTIFY A TRIGGER. CONDITIONS ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BECOME MORE
HOSTILE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SINCE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH AT THIS TIME. AS
RESULT...NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD STILL SEE A DECENT CU FIELD BUILD THAT WILL KEEP
SKIES IN THE PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE. HIGHS NEAR 80 AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE TROF AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OF WI BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WRESTLED WITH THE IDEA OF MENTIONING
AT LEAST ISOLD DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ON FRI/SAT...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG BUT NO OBVIOUS TRIGGER. OPTED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS DRY
FCST INTACT...BUT WILL NEED TO REVISIT THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.
AFTER THE WEAK TROF SHIFTS EAST...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NW WI ON SUNDAY...SAG SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN STALL OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
FRONT MAY SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS C/EC WI...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IN THESE DETAILS IS STILL QUITE LOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PCPN/
SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
WIDE RANGE OF SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...WEST OF A WISCONSIN RAPIDS
TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. TO THE SOUTH...CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM
VFR TO MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FROM MARINETTE
AND OCONTO THROUGH THE FOX VALLEY AND THE LAKESHORE REGION. THE
AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL DETERMINE HOW BAD
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS GET. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY 14-15Z. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY. PROBABILITY OF ONE OF THE SHOWERS
HITTING A TAF SITE VERY REMOTE AND DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE 06Z
TAFS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
631 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO NORTHERN MISSOURI
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. A WEAK
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
IS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO PENETRATE THE DRY AIR OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 70S. AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE STATE
TONIGHT...SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...PIECE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WEAK LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF FEATURES SHOULD BRING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BKN TO OVC DECK TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY SHOWERS EITHER CLOSER TO THIS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND HAVE LEFT AN ISOLATED MENTION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL REFLECTION WILL EXIT FAR
NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING. ANTICIPATE
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND SPOTTY SHOWERS UNTIL THESE FEATURES
DEPART. IN THE AFTERNOON...THE NAM DEVELOPS UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT ITS TOUGH TO
IDENTIFY A TRIGGER. CONDITIONS ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BECOME MORE
HOSTILE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SINCE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH AT THIS TIME. AS
RESULT...NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD STILL SEE A DECENT CU FIELD BUILD THAT WILL KEEP
SKIES IN THE PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE. HIGHS NEAR 80 AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE TROF AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OF WI BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WRESTLED WITH THE IDEA OF MENTIONING
AT LEAST ISOLD DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ON FRI/SAT...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG BUT NO OBVIOUS TRIGGER. OPTED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS DRY
FCST INTACT...BUT WILL NEED TO REVISIT THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.
AFTER THE WEAK TROF SHIFTS EAST...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NW WI ON SUNDAY...SAG SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN STALL OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
FRONT MAY SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS C/EC WI...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IN THESE DETAILS IS STILL QUITE LOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PCPN/
SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD MISS THE TAF SITES...THUS DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY RAIN IN THE 00Z TAFS. IF IT DOES RAIN...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION WOULD BE KCWA/KAUW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR
AS CIGS FALL BELOW THREE THOUSAND FEET...AND IN SOME SPOTS COULD DROP
DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY FROM KATW/KMTW AND POINTS
SOUTHWARD. ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
IF THE GFS MODEL IS CORRECT. SINCE SHOWERS WOULD BE ISOLATED...WILL
NOT INCLUDE THEM FOR THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON PORTION OF THE 00 TAF
FORECAST.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND VARIOUS IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS NNE UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS ARE MOVING
NORTHWEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...AND A FEW HAVE
BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR ON THE WEST SIDE
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE ARE MORE
ROBUST...PERHAPS DUE TO BETTER FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
THAT AREA. CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE RETROGRADING WEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BADGER STATE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MARCH THEIR WAY TO THE WEST AS WELL WITH CLOUDS THICKENING
AND LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED SKY
COVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGE. THE CURRENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION IS QUITE DRY BUT THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS ESSENTIALLY A
RESULT FROM A CHANGE IN AIRMASS ALOFT SO DO NOT THINK THE DRY AIR
WILL FEND OFF THE INCOMING MOISTURE. THIS MAKES PRECIP FORECASTING
PROBLEMATIC...SINCE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 800MB. DO
NOT REALLY TRUST GOING DRY TONIGHT ONCE THIS MOISTURE ALOFT
ARRIVES...SO WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM E-C WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHERN DOOR COUNTY. LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
TONIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD...BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE SOUTH AND ALSO EAST
OF THE AREA...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO RELY ON DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE SHOWERS. WILL EXPAND THE PRECIP MENTION BACK INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE 12Z MODELS PROG THE INSTABILITY TO REACH 300-500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO FROM TODAYS HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY
EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER TIMING ISSUES WITH SYSTEMS IN WESTERLIES
ALONG NORTHERN TIER STATE BEGIN. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ENSEMBLE SUN
ONWARD.
WEAK UPPER TROF TO REMAIN OVER REGION EARLY IN PERIOD. WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS. WILL LEAVE FRI DRY ATTM THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN TO BE LATE IN WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS DOWN AND LINGER WEAK FRONT
OVER STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO AREA. MODEST
INSTABILITY MAINLY SURFACE BASED AS UPPER LAPSE RATES NOT OVERLY
STEEP. PWATS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 1.5 IN. SHEAR
INCREASES A BIT...THOUGH MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME LIKELY HEAVY
RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO MID 80S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER MICHIGAN WILL RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTS NORTH. CIGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
REMAIN VFR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1132 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS CONTINUES TO RE-INITIATE CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS
HAS RUN SOUTHWEST FROM WAUSAU WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
JACKSON COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN FEEDING ON ABOUT 1000
J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...OUTFLOW HAS BEEN
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30-40MPH AT TIMES. AS SURFACE BASED CIN
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT THAT THESE
STORMS WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE SURFACE BASED FORCING AND FALL APART.
MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME FOG TO THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THIS
RAIN...PARTICULARLY THE CRANBERRY BOGS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG I-94/90.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST COVER THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. MOSINEE...KCWA...DID
REPORT -RA IN THE PAST HALF HOUR...SO THE PRECIPITATION IS
REACHING THE GROUND. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THE RUNS FROM
THE UP OF MICHIGAN DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS AS
WELL WITH SOME SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN RUNNING INTO SOME MORE NORTHERLY WINDS IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE 01.20 HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT...THOUGH
OVERDONE...COMPARISON TO RADAR AND SHOWS THESE SHOWERS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
WANES ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
CONDITIONS...BUT GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW BRIEF GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30KTS OR SO WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ANOTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN BETWEEN...A CUT OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE 01.12Z MODEL SUITE WHICH CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS FORCES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THESE WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY WEAK
FORCING OVER THE REGION WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING THESE
WAVES WITH LESS THAN 4 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE LACKING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE RIGHT OVER
THE AREA BRINGING A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS MAY BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH THE
COLD CORE ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 6
AND 7 C/KM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN BY LATE AFTERNOON TO AID IN
THE INSTABILITY. CAPES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS TO BE A TALL SKINNY CAPE. ENOUGH THOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO REAL
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND STARTS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH SOME LOW END CAPE TO POP SOME
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND WILL SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THAT...ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN
THE PROCESS OF MERGING INTO ONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS TEND TO TAKE FRONTS TOO FAR SOUTH IN
THESE PATTERNS SO HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
INITIAL QUESTION IS WITH WHETHER ANY OF THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION WILL MAKE IT INTO LSE.
CURRENTLY THINK THAT THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD TAKE THEM SOUTH OF THE
SITE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER/STORM OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY
AT LSE...BUT COULD OCCUR IF SOME RAIN FALLS IN THE VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A CUMULUS FIELD FORMING BY AFTERNOON. CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER HITTING RST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
WAY TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO PUT SOMETHING INTO THE TAF.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
326 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP DEPICTED A HIGH AMPLIFIED STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NOAM WITH A HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WERE
TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED.
A FEW TSTORMS THAT FORMED AROUND MIDDAY BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND
KIMBALL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS
FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
PREVAILING WINDS WERE VARIABLE 10 MPH OR LESS...OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 20 MPH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWLY RETROGRADES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER LOW/TROUGH SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM.
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NAM DOES SPREAD SOME CONVECTION AND LIGHT QPF INTO WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND ECWMF
KEEP THIS MOISTURE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL WYOMING. AT THIS TIME...WILL
OPT FOR A DRY FORECAST. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM
TODAY...RANGING FROM 11 TO 15C. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A TAD MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WINDS DURING THE
SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND WILL
PASS TO THE EAST FOR FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE TO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE WILL SPARK OFF MAINLY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW STORMS LOOKING TO SNEAK OFF
INTO THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AS EASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART AND MODELS SHOW THE ACTIVITY ENDING BY
EARLY EVENING. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CWA FOR FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE AS
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADVECTS IN MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. EASTERLY RETURN
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVER THE REGION. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST FOR SUNDAY...ALBEIT WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
ANALYZED FOR THIS DAY. THEREFORE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER TSTORMS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. ANOTHER BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
ENERGY AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
LESS MOISTURE AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT IN MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED VCTS WITH BKN080CB
FOR CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE FROM 20Z TO 01Z. TSRA THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT AND MODERATE RAINFALL. CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 8 TO 15 KT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MARGINALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE UPPER HIGH SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
WILL SHIFT WINDS ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL DRAW MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE DISTRICTS...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...MAZUR
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN MO
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ANDERSON COUNTY TO DISSIPATE. ATTM...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TOO
WEAK FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ELEVATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. THEREFORE...I WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER 6Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION. AS OF
19Z...TWO WEAK WAVES WERE OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE SATELLITE
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
TOWERING CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OWNING TO THE WEAK
INHIBITION WITH SCT THUNDER SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS WHERE
COVERAGE IS SCATTERED. ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS ELSEWHERE
WARRANTED A SLIGHT CHC THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY AS THE LATEST RUC AND NAM ANALYSIS SHOW ML CAPE FROM
500-1000 J/KG WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 20 KTS. COULD NOT RULE
OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND PERHAPS GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO 750 MB. WITH THE STORMS BEING
HEAT DRIVEN SHOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THIS EVENING AS TEMPS
FALL TO THE LOW 60S.
STOUT EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY AS IT
CENTERS NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS
SETUP...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS CLOSEST TO THE
RELATIVE STRONGER FORCING. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
WITH THE ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING OVER THE PLAINS REGION.
INCREASED WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH SUSTAINED MORE ON THE SIDE
WITH THE NAM AND UKMET. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES
EVIDENT IN THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF ROLLING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THE EARLY EVENING OF THE 4TH CANT
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME MIXED OUT
WITH VERY LITTLE CIN...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS INTO THE
EVENING THINK ISOLATED STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY DUSK. COULD
ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE EVENING OF THE 4TH
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLOW CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER
TROF FINALLY STARTS TO TAKE A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE ISOLATED THUNDER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT CROSSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH MONDAY THE
FORECAST AREA RESIDES ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH WITH
PRECIP CHANCES RIDING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TRANSITIONING UPPER FLOW MORE NORTHWESTERLY MAY BE ENOUGH TO LAY A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. AFTER TEMPERATURES
RISE BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY WEEK...COULD SEE
ANOTHER SLIGHT COOLDOWN IF THIS FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ATTM
THEY LOOK TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO INSERT ANY VCTS IN THE KTOP OR
KFOE TAFS.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GARGAN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...CRAVEN
AVIATION...GARGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1234 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1234 AM UPDATE...THE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE STRATUS AND FOG JUST
HUGGING THE COASTLINE. NONE OF THE OBSERVATION SITES ALONG THE
COAST ARE SHOWING ANY STATUS YET...BUT SUSPECT WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW
THAT THE STATUS WILL BE ADVECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HAS A
NICE HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND SHOWS THE STATUS PUSHING
INLAND OVERNIGHT AND THEN RETREATING OFFSHORE BY AROUND 13Z THU.
UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO SHOW THE STATUS JUST OFFSHORE MOVING
INLAND A BIT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMP/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PRIMARY FEATURE IS STRONG BERMUDA HIGH
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE USED A BLEND
OF THE NAM12...GFS40...CEMREG...SREF AND ECMWF. FOR TEMPERATURE
THURSDAY HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS WITH MOSG25. LATEST VERIFICATION
INDICATES HIGH BIAS SO HAVE LOWERED THE MAXIMUM A FEW DEGREES. FOR
WIND HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND MOSG25.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WE ARE LOOKING FOR HOT, HUMID
WEATHER WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS. THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
WARM WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES THAT MAY
HELP SPARK THE CONVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. THIS
WILL ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM
VFR TO LIFR...IN FOG ARE THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THE FOG SHOULD BE MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALLY WORSE CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND IN PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A LINGERING
SOUTH SWELL. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: WE ARE LOOKING FOR SW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET, SO
CONDITIONS REMAINING A LITTLE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE/FOISY
MARINE...CB/MIGNONE/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
343 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WHERE THE MODELS WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION
YESTERDAY EVENING...THEY WERE NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH THE
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. IT SEEMS THE BEST INTERPRETATION IS THE
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE HRRR MODEL AND A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE
OTHER MODELS IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ROUGHLY THE SAME OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ASIDE FROM A RE-ENFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ON
FRIDAY...WHEREAS FOR TODAY...STORM INITIATION WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH OUR WESTERN CWA BY THIS EVENING.
FOR NOW...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WIND...AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS OUR GENERAL
REGIONAL AREA OUTLINED WITH AN ASSOCIATED SEE TEXT DESCRIBING THIS
OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT.
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY CONSTANT...EITHER SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF ZONAL OR A SOLID
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WARM TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO ALLOW A BETTER
FINE TUNING OF THE POPS...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THEN THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ONE THAT IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. THE MODEL RUNS ARE PUSHING
SYSTEMS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MORE THAN TRACKING THEM THROUGH
CENTRAL MONTANA. WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE FAIRLY NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
WARM UP TOWARDS THE VERY END. PROTON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY... CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 6PM. KGGW AND KOLF
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE
SWITCHING FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KTS. AEC
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
600 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP SHOWING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM RADAR
RETURNS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING OVR THE NW
MTNS...A LOW CHC OVR THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...AND NO MENTION OVR
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR IS WORKING IN
PER LATEST WV LOOP AND RAP OUTPUT.
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST AREAS
OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF THEY
WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE EASTERN COS SHOULD LARGELY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WHERE PTSUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE U80S. A WEAKER CAP OVR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PM TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS. THIS SCENARIO IS BACKED BY THE 00Z GEFS...WHICH INDICATES A
GOOD CHC OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTN. MCLDY SKIES AND AFTN PRECIP SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO NR 80F
OVR THE W MTNS.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS NOT IN A SLGHT RISK AREA...WOULD NOT RULE
OUT ISOLD SVR TSRA LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. MDL CAPES ARND 2000J/KG
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND 06Z NAM INDICATES
SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LYR SHEAR ACROSS THE W MTNS...CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SVR EVENING TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. BULK OF MDL
DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE E GRT LKS LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY TO HELP INITIATE PM TSRA ACROSS NW PA. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
CONVECTION WILL WORK SE...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE BEST CHC
OF PRECIP OVR THE NW MTNS AND LEAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE L90S
UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES. MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION MAY
HOLD READINGS IN THE L80S ACROSS THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LG
SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT OFF LOW OVR
THE MISS VALL OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF HIGH PWATS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALL TO PA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SAT PM. THE
CHC OF DAILY CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PA WILL REMAIN
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION.
WHAT APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE
ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF
ABV NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR STILL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A FEW SPOTS
WITH IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF IFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE VFR...
AS AIR MASS MIXES A LITTLE AND CU FORM. WENT VCSH...AS NOT
SEEING A LOT OF ACTIVITY YESERDAY OR TODAY SO FAR.
HEIGHTS RISE...BUT GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT TIMES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM
NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
318 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD AND SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN
THE UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. THESE SMALL
CHANGES TO THE BIG PICTURE WILL MEAN ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OF SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL UP THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO WESTERN PA EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THRU
DAWN OVR THE NW MTNS...CHC OVR THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...AND NO
MENTION OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR
IS WORKING IN PER LATEST WV LOOP AND RAP OUTPUT.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. ACROSS THE EAST...A
LIGHT WIND...COMBINED WITH PTCLDY SKIES WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF
FOG EARLY THIS AM. 06Z TEMPS CLOSING IN ON DWPTS...SO NOT MUCH
MORE COOLING EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U60S OVR THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L/M70S ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND RATHER MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST
AREAS OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF
THEY WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
THE THOUGHT OF A BIT OF A CAP OF WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE
EASTERN COS FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY IS STILL VALID AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED MORE-SO IN THE EAST THAN OVER THE
WEST...DESPITE MUCH HIGHER CAPES FCST IN THE EAST. COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT WARRANT MORE THAN LOW-END LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND JUST A 20
POP IN THE SE. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND A BIT WARMER TEMPS
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES TODAY. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND 22C
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS FROM NR 80F OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE
U80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID REMAINS THE RULE AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE MIDWEST UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY
DIURNALLY INTO LATE WEEK.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS DOMINATING THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN
AND RETREATS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY. THE
GFS AND EC DISAGREE ON TIME OF THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER BOTH AGREE
THAT IT WILL PASS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY..AND ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW COULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THAT SYSTEM
WILL USHER IN A PATTERN SHIFT INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SEE A MORE
ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR STILL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A FEW SPOTS
WITH IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF IFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE VFR...
AS AIRMASS MIXES A LITTLE AND CU FORM. WENT VCSH...AS NOT
SEEING A LOT OF ACTIVITY YESERDAY OR TODAY SO FAR.
HEIGHTS RISE...BUT GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT TIMES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM
NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
214 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD AND SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN
THE UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. THESE SMALL
CHANGES TO THE BIG PICTURE WILL MEAN ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OF SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL UP THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO WESTERN PA EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THRU
DAWN OVR THE NW MTNS...CHC OVR THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...AND NO
MENTION OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR
IS WORKING IN PER LATEST WV LOOP AND RAP OUTPUT.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. ACROSS THE EAST...A
LIGHT WIND...COMBINED WITH PTCLDY SKIES WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF
FOG EARLY THIS AM. 06Z TEMPS CLOSING IN ON DWPTS...SO NOT MUCH
MORE COOLING EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U60S OVR THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L/M70S ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND RATHER MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST
AREAS OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF
THEY WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
THE THOUGHT OF A BIT OF A CAP OF WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE
EASTERN COS FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY IS STILL VALID AND CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED MORE-SO IN THE EAST THAN OVER THE
WEST...DESPITE MUCH HIGHER CAPES FCST IN THE EAST. COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT WARRANT MORE THAN LOW-END LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST AND JUST A 20
POP IN THE SE. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION BUT ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND A BIT WARMER TEMPS
ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES TODAY. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND 22C
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS FROM NR 80F OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE
U80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID REMAINS THE RULE AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE MIDWEST UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY
DIURNALLY INTO LATE WEEK.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS DOMINATING THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN
AND RETREATS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...EARLY MONDAY. THE
GFS AND EC DISAGREE ON TIME OF THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER BOTH AGREE
THAT IT WILL PASS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY..AND ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW COULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THAT SYSTEM
WILL USHER IN A PATTERN SHIFT INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SEE A MORE
ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACTING WESTERN AREAS WITH A
N-S ORIENTED BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS JUST WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. EXPECT
TO SEE A WEAKENING TREND TO THE SHOWERS AND TSRA THROUGH
04Z...THOUGH HRRR AND 4KM NAM HINT AT CONVECTION MOVING SLOWLY
INTO FAR NWRN PENN...YET REMAINING WEST OF KBFD.
A FEW MORE SHOWERS COULD GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...BUT LOW AREAL COVERAGE WILL
KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD OF LOWERING CIGS /TO MVFR WITH SOME IFR/ AND LIGHT
FOG AROUND SUNRISE.
EXPECT A RETURN OF DIURNAL CU AND SCT TO LIKELY SHRA/TSRA BY THU
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA. MDT AND LNS
HAVE THE LOWEST THREAT FOR TSTM-RELATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. COVG
AND PROB UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO ONLY MENTION SHRA AT BFD IN THE
MORNING AND WILL ALSO THROW IN VCTS TO ALL BUT LNS/MDT BEFORE THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE CONTROLLING FACTORS OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AND BIG WRN ATLC/BERMUDA RIDGE WILL MORPH A BIT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL NUDGE WWD WHILE THE LOW
FILLS/LIFTS A BIT...BUT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP DRAW THE
DEEP TROPICAL MSTR UP INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DAILY FORECASTS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MTS WILL BE NECESSARY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
420 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
OFF TO A MILD START FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...LENDING CONFIDENCE
IN SIDING TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RUC13 BY FAR THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS FOR HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM 87 AT KSLB TO 99 FOR K9V9. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE
GIVEN ITS 925MB TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY
STAYING 3-5F LOWER THAN RUC13 PROJECTED MAX TEMP...MORE IN REALM OF
WARMER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 04/00Z NAM AND 03/12Z GEM. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL STAY IN CHECK AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY POTENTIAL DETRIMENT TO 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES TODAY WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET FOR FIREWORKS...BUT SHOULD STILL
BE IN 10-20 MPH RANGE GIVEN FORECAST WINDS OF 15-25KT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. MILD TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE MODEST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BENEATH DEVELOPING 35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STRONGEST OVERNIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN...WHERE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH COULD BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...STILL LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER GIVEN DRY
LAYER BELOW 700MB. HOWEVER...HARD TO ARGUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z...AHEAD OF
SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH TRACKS INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL SATURATION DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
AXIS ABOVE 700MB...SO WILL HANG ONTO NARROW AREA OF ISOLATED POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. BIGGER QUESTION IS
WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR FAR WEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
SD. CONSENSUS KEEPS BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME NEAR SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE AREA...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE MID 90S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...COULD SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REACHING CHAMBERLAIN AREA
PRIOR TO SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
WILL STILL FIND THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AREA SHEARS IN DEFORMATION ON BACK SIDE
OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW. STILL HAVE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT STILL JUST ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF MOIST NEUTRAL
TO GIVE SOME 100-300 J/KG CAPE. FORCING ENTIRELY MID LEVEL...AND
DIV Q SIGNATURE ALONG WITH THE 700 HPA THETA E ADVECTION INDICATE
WEAKENING POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN TOWARD MIDDAY...SO ENDED THREAT BY
15Z AFTER WORKING JUST A BIT EASTWARD. LIKELY THAT NET STORM
MOTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT EAST OF SOUTH GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE. REST
OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
OVER TODAY. QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
SUITE GIVEN THE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. BY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT...CWA COULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER
MCS...DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS SD. THIS AREA WILL LINGER
ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOON BE ON THE WEAKENING TREND WITH WAVE
MOVING PAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING MORE OFF SURFACE.
DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUDS...WILL BE WIDE POTENTIAL RANGE OF
TEMPS ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FIND A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN
DEWPOINTS WHICH COULD CRACK 70 DEGREES PRIOR TO DEEPER MIXING. AS
A RESULT...POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON HEATING. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF SOUNDINGS
FROM VARIOUS SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY STOUT CAP WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNLESS TEMPS ARE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
THAN EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO BE
BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE HEATED OUT CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THROUGH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH POTENTIAL AS WELL ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH HANG UP TOWARD HIGHWAY 14. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG INSTABILITY...AND THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A
MENTIONABLE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT COVERAGE COULD BE
LIMITED BY THE DEGREE OF CAPPING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY AS
WAVY ZONAL FLOW AROUND TO START...WITH SEVERAL SUGGESTIONS OF SOME
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS PRETTY RANDOM BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AND ONE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE THE LOWER LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP AS EACH PASSES AND INDUCES CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
SOUTHEASTWARD... THERE IS A GREATER IDEA BUILDING THAT RIDGING
WHICH BUILDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY HELP TO BRING A BRIEF
END TO CONVECTION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS MORE SO THAN
INDICATED IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE MOMENT...WILL USE A HIGHER
POP SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT LOWER NORTH TO INDICATE THE TREND. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT...AND FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENS... WOULD GET SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL JET
RETURN...AND WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...LIKELY THAT WOULD SEE SOME ENHANCED THREAT FOR
STORMS...PERHAPS WELL ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A FEW SEVERE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE INITIAL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW
READINGS WORKING BACK TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TOWARD MIDWEEK. FAIRLY
HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE SOLID POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO 10
TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REFLECTING WHAT ALL MODELS SHOW...TAKING THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF AREA BY 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH COLUMN DRYING AND LITTLE TO NO OMEGA. BUT
NAM...RAP AND HRRR LOW-LAYER MOISTURE/VSBY FORECASTS KEEP THE FOG
OVER THE LAKE JUST OFFSHORE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH PARALLEL TO THE SHORE BY 18Z. WILL KEEP FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT NEAR-SHORE LOCATIONS COULD SEE FOG
DRIFT IN FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SOUTH SFC WINDS COULD TURN INLAND WITH WARMING INLAND TEMPS.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB 4 TO 5 DEGREES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH FULL MIXING
PUTTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WHICH WILL BE SEEN IN THE WEST. WILL
FOLLOW COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE FAR EAST THAT STAY CLOSER TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST HIGHS. THE 500-600 J/KG CAPE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON PREDICATED ON LOW TO MID 60 DEW
POINTS...BUT GIVEN CURRENT UPSTREAM DEW POINTS CLOSER TO LOWER MOS
GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND LACK OF FORCING REFLECTED IN MODELS WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT...BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AT PEAK HEATING.
A QUIET AND CALM NIGHT COULD BRING FOG AND HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG IN
USUAL LOCATIONS...GIVEN NEAR-SFC WINDS AROUND 14 KTS ALLOWING SOME
TURBULENT MIXING BUT LIGHT FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PATCHY
DENSE IF SFC WINDS STAY TOTALLY DECOUPLED AND CALM.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE PROGGD TO BE EITHER BISECTING THE
CWA IN A NNE/SSW FASHION OR ACROSS NW WI. PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION
IN MISSOURI. 850 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
925 TEMPS RAMP UP INTO THE 21-23C RANGE. LOW LEVEL FLOW
ANTICYCLONIC. ALL PROGS GOING DRY SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR LOW PLODS EAST INTO SRN IL. GEM SOLUTION HAS THE
CIRCULATION FURTHERS NORTH INTO NE IL. 12Z ECMWF WARMED 925 TEMPS TO
23-25C WHILE NAM AND GFS SHOW 21-23C. TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. SOME CAPE BUT AGAIN PLENTY OF DRY AIR
NOTED IN THE SOUNDING WITH NO LOW LEVEL TRIGGER TO LATCH ONTO.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECT BUILDING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS AS TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS
TO THE EAST. THE NAM/GFS AND GEM SHOW SUSPICIOUS VORTS WITHIN THIS
OVERALL RIDGING PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTED A SLOWER ARRIVAL TO
RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THE 00Z RUN HAS COME IN
SHOWING PRECIP ARRIVING ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM
KEEPS THIS INITIAL PRECIP ACROSS NE WI. SO COLLABORATIVELY THE
DECISION WAS MADE TO STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING ALLOWING FOR SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND JETLETS TO AFFECT THE
AREA. BUFKIT SHOWING CAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AT TIMES. DEW POINTS
CREEPING INTO THE LOW 70S WITH 850 MILLIBAR SOUTHWEST FLOW FEEDING
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/SPEED
CONVERGENCE NOTED. MAY END UP SEEING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH
MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. 250 JET CORE JUST NORTH SUGGESTS SOME RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT ACTION. ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH WEDNESDAY FROPA ENDING
SHRA/TSRA EARLIER WHILE GFS HANGS ONTO THE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REFLECTING WHAT ALL MODELS
SHOW...TAKING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH COLUMN DRYING
AND LITTLE TO NO OMEGA. BUT NAM...RAP AND HRRR LOW-LAYER
MOISTURE/VSBY FORECASTS KEEP THE FOG OVER THE LAKE JUST OFFSHORE
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH PARALLEL TO THE SHORE BY
18Z. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT TAF SITES NEAR THE LAKE COULD
SEE FOG DRIFT IN FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOUTH SFC WINDS COULD TURN INLAND WITH
WARMING INLAND TEMPS. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND FEW-SCT SKY COULD BRING LIGHT FOG BACK TONIGHT BUT
COUNTING ON NEAR-SFC WINDS AROUND 14 KTS ALLOWING SOME TURBULENT
MIXING BUT LIGHT FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME DENSE IF SFC
WINDS STAY TOTALLY DECOUPLED AND CALM.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
641 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS WARM AND HUMID AIR LIFTING NORTH
AROUND THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
640 AM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
627 AM UPDATE...FOG ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE TRUE AREAS OF
FOG WITH SOME SPOTS EVEN RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FREE OF
THE STRATUS/FOG. THE FOG DID CREEP INTO KBGR AT 09Z. A SPS WAS
ISSUED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR SRN PENOBSCOT COUNTY...BUT DID NOT
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT VERY
RAPIDLY WITHIN THE HOUR. THE HRRR HAS A REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE FOG AND INDICATES THAT IT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY 13Z/9 AM
EDT. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FCST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 598 DM 500H BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED 400 MILES EAST OF
WALLOPS ISLAND VIRGINA WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ALOFT
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA HAS
ALREADY BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE AND WILL MORE OR LESS DISSIPATE
ALTOGETHER TODAY. A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
TODAY WILL BE A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH 850H TEMPS OF +16-17C
AND 925 TEMPS OF +23C. STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE BY MID MORNING.
INLAND EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ASIDE FROM ANY EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 80S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP 90 DEGREES.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE REGION IT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT DURING THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE M/U
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. FRIDAY
SHOULD TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DOWNEAST AS SOME MOISTURE CIRCULATES
AROUND THE HIGH. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE LIFTING AROUND THE HIGH
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE MOISTURE SHOULD THEN SLIDE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLEARING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. FOREST FIRES CONTINUE TO BURN
ACROSS QUEBEC AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SOME SMOKE FROM THOSE FIRES
PUSHES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THAT WEAK FRONT.
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY MAY BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY
APPROACH THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE
TO BRING AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SMALL
WEATHER SYSTEMS TRACK ALONG OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. IFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
PATCHY FOG AT KBGR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN PATCHY FOG AT KBGR
AND KBHB LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR DURING THE DAY BUT MAY DROP TO IFR IN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A LINGERING SOUTH SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...BUT SEA/SWELL COMBO WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT THE VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF NM OR LESS
AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DENSE FOG
WILL SHROUD THE WATERS AT TIMES AS HUMID AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS GETS CHILLED BY THE COLDER WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
628 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS WARM AND HUMID AIR LIFTING NORTH
AROUND THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
627 AM UPDATE...FOG ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE TRUE AREAS OF
FOG WITH SOME SPOTS EVEN RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FREE OF
THE STRATUS/FOG. THE FOG DID CREEP INTO KBGR AT 09Z. A SPS WAS
ISSUED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR SRN PENOBSCOT COUNTY...BUT DID NOT
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT VERY
RAPIDLY WITHIN THE HOUR. THE HRRR HAS A REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE FOG AND INDICATES THAT IT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY 13Z/9 AM
EDT. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FCST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 598 DM 500H BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED 400 MILES EAST OF
WALLOPS ISLAND VIRGINA WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ALOFT
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA HAS
ALREADY BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE AND WILL MORE OR LESS DISSIPATE
ALTOGETHER TODAY. A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
TODAY WILL BE A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH 850H TEMPS OF +16-17C
AND 925 TEMPS OF +23C. STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE BY MID MORNING.
INLAND EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ASIDE FROM ANY EARLY
MORNING PATCHY FOG. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 80S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND A FEW SPOTS MAY TOP 90 DEGREES.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE REGION IT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT JUST ABOUT ANY POINT DURING THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE M/U
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. FRIDAY
SHOULD TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DOWNEAST AS SOME MOISTURE CIRCULATES
AROUND THE HIGH. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE LIFTING AROUND THE HIGH
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE MOISTURE SHOULD THEN SLIDE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLEARING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SOME SPOTS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. FOREST FIRES CONTINUE TO BURN
ACROSS QUEBEC AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SOME SMOKE FROM THOSE FIRES
PUSHES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THAT WEAK FRONT.
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY MAY BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY
APPROACH THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE
TO BRING AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SMALL
WEATHER SYSTEMS TRACK ALONG OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KBHB AND KBGR. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR DURING THE DAY BUT MAY DROP TO IFR IN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A LINGERING SOUTH SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...BUT SEA/SWELL COMBO WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT THE VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF NM OR LESS
AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DENSE FOG
WILL SHROUD THE WATERS AT TIMES AS HUMID AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS GETS CHILLED BY THE COLDER WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1103 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. MLCAPES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MO...AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A NARROW
AREA OF CAPE WITH NO CINH AT KCOU BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL MO
WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST. 12Z KSGF AND KILX SOUNDINGS AND
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP INTO THE 750-850MB LAYER
WHICH FAVORS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
BRITT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
MID LEVEL LOW OVER W CNTRL MO SHOULD ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY.
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTN AHEAD AND UNDERNEATH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS NERN AND CNTRL MO...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
MODELS ALSO GENERATE CONVECTION FURTHER E-NE INTO W CNTRL IL AS WELL
THIS AFTN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING
LEADING TO POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. WITH PLENTY OF
MRNG SOLAR INSOLATION HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY.
GKS
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW/TROF TO LINGER OVER WESTERN MO TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SO FOR TONIGHT...HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE LOW 60S.
ON FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
BY SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF TO FINALLY WEAKEN/GET KICKED OUT
OF AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BEFORE
DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
AS FOR THE EXTENDED...ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO THIS FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH BERMUDA HIGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN US...WILL SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH. THIS WILL
SETUP SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN
TURN THESE COMPLEXES TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BE A
FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OUT WEST. SO FLOW TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...THUS FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SHIFT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN UNDERNEATH AND AHEAD OF AN
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER W CNTRL MO. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE COU AREA LATE THIS
AFTN. WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST VCTS IN THE COU TAF DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVNG WITH FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TGT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE MAINLY S-SELY TODAY AT ONLY 5-7 KTS
WITH OUR AREA ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SFC RIDGE OVER THE
SERN US AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE SFC WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT
THIS EVNG.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. MOST OF THE AFTN CONVECTION
SHOULD BE W AND N OF STL...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS AFTN. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS
EVNG WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE TGT/EARLY FRI MRNG. LIGHT SFC
WIND WILL BECOME SELY LATE THIS MRNG...AND E-SELY THIS AFTN
INCREASING TO 6-7 KTS. THE SFC WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVNG.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1002 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS POOLED BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS AT
MILES CITY AND EVEN BILLINGS IN THE MID 60S F AS OF 16 UTC. STORMS
HAVE BEEN SCATTERED ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR HAVRE
TO RAPID CITY. SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE IN AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED FASHION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...ALTHOUGH HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT THAT IDEA.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVEN IF DEWPOINTS MIX OUT A BIT
LIKE MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE
WARM AND MOIST ENOUGH TO YIELD UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE
NAM SUGGESTS SHEAR WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT GFS
AND GFS-FED RAP SOLUTIONS SUGGEST HIGHER 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35
KT OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN MT. MEAN EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES FROM SREF
SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST THE NAM MAY BE A LOW OUTLIER. THUS...WE DID
DECIDE TO UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ALSO INCREASED POP
VALUES TO THE LIKELY THRESHOLD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE FOR STORMS TO FORM
OVER THE BIG HORN RANGE IN PARTICULAR. WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD
MAKE HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY. OTHERWISE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORCED SOUTHWARD DUE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT SLID SOUTHWARD ACROSS
MONTANA OVERNIGHT AND WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF MILES CITY TO
BILLINGS TO JUST SOUTH OF HARLOWTON AT 09Z THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING UP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
VERY HIGH AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S AT
BILLINGS TO THE MID 60S OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL ALLOW MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH SHEAR OF AROUND 30KTS TO BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEARING ALOFT...BELIEVE STORMS WILL STAY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA BUT WILL STILL MENTION HAIL AND GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL IN THE ZONES. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER TODAY BUT
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING FORCING
ALOFT IN THE FORM OF Q VECTOR FORCING/VORTICITY AND JET DYNAMICS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST KEEP MID 50 DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CREATE SURFACE BASE
CAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH LI`S AROUND A -5C. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHERE HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL
MENTION SEVERE STORMS IN THE ZONES FROM BAKER WEST TO BIG TIMBER
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND WEATHER
STORY. FALLING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
BUT THEY WILL STILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RELATIVELY
UNSETTLED SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. MODELS DIVERGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS TO STRENGTH AND
DURATION OF THE RETURN OD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE REGION.
SHALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY EASTERLY...KEEPING HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA. PWATS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN ELEVATED...AROUND AN INCH.
SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE DECENT...WITH GOOD WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT IN
COUNTERPOINT TO THE EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH
CAPES AROUND 1000J/KG POINT TO SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL EACH
DAY.
THE TROF SHIFTS EAST...WITH SOME DEGREE OF RIDGING TAKING OVER FOR
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE EC FAVORS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND
LONGER LASTING RIDGE...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND BEYOND. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS MORE OF A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO UNSETTLED
SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT INTRODUCED CLIMO POPS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH LITTLE
CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY...WHICH
COULD BE BACK IN THE 90S AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EAST OF KBIL THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ONE BATCH WILL
BE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH A SECOND BATCH WEST OF BILLINGS.
THE STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE TORRENTIAL RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40KTS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN BILLINGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 2 PM.
THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 066/088 062/083 060/084 060/087 059/084 061/084
3/T 45/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
LVM 091 057/085 053/083 051/083 050/085 050/083 051/085
4/T 46/T 64/T 43/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
HDN 093 065/089 062/085 060/087 060/089 060/085 061/085
3/T 45/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
MLS 093 066/089 063/085 062/087 061/087 060/084 063/084
2/T 36/T 53/T 34/T 33/T 33/T 32/T
4BQ 091 061/089 059/085 059/086 058/088 058/083 059/082
2/T 35/T 53/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
BHK 089 060/085 059/083 058/083 058/083 058/080 057/077
2/T 36/T 53/T 34/T 44/T 33/T 32/T
SHR 090 061/086 058/082 056/085 055/086 054/083 055/082
4/T 45/T 55/T 55/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
911 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN BLAINE COUNTY WILL MOVE INTO PHILLIPS
COUNTY BEFORE FADING. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY.
SINCE MODELS ARE UNDER-DOING THE CONVECTION...ALSO SPREAD ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT EXPECTED STORMS IN BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES WILL
DRIFT INTO THOSE ZONES. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WHERE THE MODELS WERE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIPITATION
YESTERDAY EVENING...THEY WERE NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH THE
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. IT SEEMS THE BEST INTERPRETATION IS THE
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE HRRR MODEL AND A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE
OTHER MODELS IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ROUGHLY THE SAME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ASIDE FROM A RE-ENFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...WHEREAS FOR
TODAY...STORM INITIATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH OUR WESTERN CWA BY THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE BOTH TODAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WIND...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS OUR GENERAL REGIONAL
AREA OUTLINED WITH AN ASSOCIATED SEE TEXT DESCRIBING THIS OVERALL
MARGINAL THREAT.
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY CONSTANT...EITHER SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF ZONAL OR A SOLID
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WARM TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT TO ALLOW A BETTER
FINE TUNING OF THE POPS...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THEN THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ONE THAT IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. THE MODEL RUNS ARE PUSHING
SYSTEMS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MORE THAN TRACKING THEM THROUGH
CENTRAL MONTANA. WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE FAIRLY NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
WARM UP TOWARDS THE VERY END. PROTON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY... CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 6PM. KGGW AND KOLF
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KTS. AEC
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
CURRENT CONVECTION IS WANING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ALTHOUGH
NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED YET. HAVE HAD SOME MESONET SITES THIS
MORNING WITH SOME MEASURABLE /ALBEIT VERY LOW/ AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
HAVE TRIMMED THE AREA OF MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND REDUCED
THE MENTION TO SHOWERS. THINGS LOOK A BIT MORE IN QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD SOME LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN
THE WEST AND CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND ADDITIONAL RUNS OF
STORM-SCALE MODELS THROUGH THE SHIFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
AVIATION...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY FORM AFTER 6Z IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND 7H WINDS BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE. NAM12 SUGGEST SIMILAR SETUP FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION WILL
FLATTEN THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...HIGHER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OK...SO HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. THE EC PUSHES A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
WEDNESDAY...AS A SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 65 91 68 / 10 20 10 0
HOBART OK 93 64 95 69 / 20 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 66 96 71 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 90 63 96 69 / 20 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 87 63 90 67 / 20 10 10 0
DURANT OK 90 66 92 69 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1157 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALREADY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS POPPING UP IN THE NW AND MODERATE CU
OVER THE BALANCE OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SCT TO NMRS POPS LOOKING
GOOD FOR THE AFTN AND VERY EARLY EVENING. WARM AIR ALOFT KEEPING
THE LID ON PLACES WHICH DON/T HAVE ADDED LIFT/FOCUS LIKE THE
TALLEST HILLS DO. CAPES ALREADY FAIRLY HIGH AND BULK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OVER 40 KTS OVER THE NW. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF ISOLD SEVERE STORMS POSS IN THE NW. MOST LIKELY PROBLEM
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS...AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEP THE THREAT OF
HAIL LOW. TEMPS RIGHT ON TRACK...BUT STRONG JULY SUN COULD BOOST
THE MAXES A FEW MORE DEGS.
THE BIGGEST WORRY IN THE FORECAST IS THE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 9 PM. WHILE THE CONVECTION WILL
BE WANING AT THAT TIME...HRRR AND RUC STILL KEEP SOME SCT STORMS
IN THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH 10 OR 11 PM. WILL KEEP ON WITH LOW CHC
POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AS THE MODEL FINE-SCALE PHYSICS AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETRIZATION SCHEMES ARE NOT TO THE POINT YET WHERE
THEY INSTILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AREAL PLACEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SVR EVENING TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. BULK OF MDL
DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE E GRT LKS LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY TO HELP INITIATE PM TSRA ACROSS NW PA. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
CONVECTION WILL WORK SE...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE BEST CHC
OF PRECIP OVR THE NW MTNS AND LEAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE L90S
UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES. MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION MAY
HOLD READINGS IN THE L80S ACROSS THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LG
SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT OFF LOW OVR
THE MISS VALL OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF HIGH PWATS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALL TO PA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SAT PM. THE
CHC OF DAILY CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PA WILL REMAIN
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION.
WHAT APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE
ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF
ABV NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS ARE VFR AS OF 15Z WITH DIURNAL CU COVERING THE
LAND. KEEPING WITH THE VCSH MENTIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS...AS
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AND TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH
TERMINALS WILL DEAL WITH TSRA AND ASSOCD REDUCTIONS TO FLIGHT
CATG. BFD IS ALREADY IN VERY LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH MORE POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY. AS THE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE/PLACEMENT OF
STORMS INCREASES...TEMPO GROPUS MAY BE ADDED TO HIGHLIGHT TSRA.
NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE PATTERN STAYS
VERY SIMILAR. SCT DIURNAL TSRA - MAINLY IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE
AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
843 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER WITH BRIEF CLEAR SLOT OVER SC COS AND
LOW CLOUDS IN THE SE. DIURNAL CU ALREADY FILLING IN THE CLEAR SLOT
AND LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK BUT BEING COVERED OVER BY MID
DECK. BARELY SPRINKLES OVER THE NW AND UPSTREAM...SO POPS LOWERED
FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS THIS MORNING.
PREV...
SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP SHOWING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM RADAR
RETURNS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING OVR THE NW MTNS...A
LOW CHC OVR THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...AND NO MENTION OVR THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR IS WORKING IN PER
LATEST WV LOOP AND RAP OUTPUT.
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST AREAS
OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF THEY
WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE EASTERN COS SHOULD LARGELY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WHERE PTSUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE U80S. A WEAKER CAP OVR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PM TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS. THIS SCENARIO IS BACKED BY THE 00Z GEFS...WHICH INDICATES A
GOOD CHC OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTN. MCLDY SKIES AND AFTN PRECIP SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO NR 80F
OVR THE W MTNS.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS NOT IN A SLGHT RISK AREA...WOULD NOT RULE
OUT ISOLD SVR TSRA LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. MDL CAPES ARND
2000J/KG INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND 06Z NAM
INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LYR SHEAR ACROSS THE W MTNS...
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SVR EVENING TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. BULK OF MDL
DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE E GRT LKS LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY TO HELP INITIATE PM TSRA ACROSS NW PA. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
CONVECTION WILL WORK SE...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE BEST CHC
OF PRECIP OVR THE NW MTNS AND LEAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE L90S
UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES. MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION MAY
HOLD READINGS IN THE L80S ACROSS THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LG
SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT OFF LOW OVR
THE MISS VALL OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF HIGH PWATS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALL TO PA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SAT PM. THE
CHC OF DAILY CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PA WILL REMAIN
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION.
WHAT APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE
ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF
ABV NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MORE OF A GRADIENT TONIGHT...THUS LEFT FOG OUT OF THE 12Z
TAF PACKAGE NOW.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE VFR...AS AIR
MASS MIXES A LITTLE AND CU FORM. WENT VCSH...AS NOT SEEING A LOT
OF ACTIVITY YESERDAY OR TODAY SO FAR.
HEIGHTS RISE...BUT GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S AT TIMES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM
NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
729 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP SHOWING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM RADAR
RETURNS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING OVR THE NW
MTNS...A LOW CHC OVR THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...AND NO MENTION OVR
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR IS WORKING IN
PER LATEST WV LOOP AND RAP OUTPUT.
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST AREAS
OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF THEY
WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE EASTERN COS SHOULD LARGELY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WHERE PTSUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE U80S. A WEAKER CAP OVR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PM TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS. THIS SCENARIO IS BACKED BY THE 00Z GEFS...WHICH INDICATES A
GOOD CHC OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTN. MCLDY SKIES AND AFTN PRECIP SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO NR 80F
OVR THE W MTNS.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS NOT IN A SLGHT RISK AREA...WOULD NOT RULE
OUT ISOLD SVR TSRA LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. MDL CAPES ARND
2000J/KG INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND 06Z NAM
INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LYR SHEAR ACROSS THE W MTNS...
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SVR EVENING TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. BULK OF MDL
DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE E GRT LKS LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY TO HELP INITIATE PM TSRA ACROSS NW PA. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
CONVECTION WILL WORK SE...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE BEST CHC
OF PRECIP OVR THE NW MTNS AND LEAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE L90S
UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES. MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION MAY
HOLD READINGS IN THE L80S ACROSS THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LG
SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT OFF LOW OVR
THE MISS VALL OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF HIGH PWATS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALL TO PA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SAT PM. THE
CHC OF DAILY CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PA WILL REMAIN
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION.
WHAT APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE
ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF
ABV NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. FOG NOT QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD AS EXPECTED.
EXPECT MORE OF A GRADIENT TONIGHT...THUS LEFT FOG OUT OF THE
12Z TAF PACKAGE NOW.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE VFR...
AS AIR MASS MIXES A LITTLE AND CU FORM. WENT VCSH...AS NOT
SEEING A LOT OF ACTIVITY YESERDAY OR TODAY SO FAR.
HEIGHTS RISE...BUT GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT TIMES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM
NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
637 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATL-DERIVED PWAT LOOP SHOWING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM RADAR
RETURNS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING OVR THE NW
MTNS...A LOW CHC OVR THE RIDGE/VALLEY REGION...AND NO MENTION OVR
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MUCH DRIER MID LVL AIR IS WORKING IN
PER LATEST WV LOOP AND RAP OUTPUT.
AFTER A TRANQUIL AND MUGGY START TO INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOST AREAS
OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTN TO SEE IF THEY
WILL GET THE PASSING SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MANY DAYS NOW.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE EASTERN COS SHOULD LARGELY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WHERE PTSUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE U80S. A WEAKER CAP OVR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...SHOULD RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PM TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS. THIS SCENARIO IS BACKED BY THE 00Z GEFS...WHICH INDICATES A
GOOD CHC OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTN. MCLDY SKIES AND AFTN PRECIP SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO NR 80F
OVR THE W MTNS.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS NOT IN A SLGHT RISK AREA...WOULD NOT RULE
OUT ISOLD SVR TSRA LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. MDL CAPES ARND
2000J/KG INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND 06Z NAM
INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LYR SHEAR ACROSS THE W MTNS...
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SUPERCELLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SVR EVENING TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. BULK OF MDL
DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE E GRT LKS LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY TO HELP INITIATE PM TSRA ACROSS NW PA. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
CONVECTION WILL WORK SE...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE BEST CHC
OF PRECIP OVR THE NW MTNS AND LEAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE L90S
UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES. MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION MAY
HOLD READINGS IN THE L80S ACROSS THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LG
SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT OFF LOW OVR
THE MISS VALL OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF HIGH PWATS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALL TO PA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SAT PM. THE
CHC OF DAILY CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PA WILL REMAIN
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION.
WHAT APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE
ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF
ABV NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR THE 09Z OR 12Z TAF PACKAGE. FOG
NOT QUITE AS BAD AS EXPECTED EARLIER.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MAINLY VFR STILL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A FEW SPOTS
WITH IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF IFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE VFR...
AS AIR MASS MIXES A LITTLE AND CU FORM. WENT VCSH...AS NOT
SEEING A LOT OF ACTIVITY YESERDAY OR TODAY SO FAR.
HEIGHTS RISE...BUT GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S AT TIMES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM
NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
638 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
OFF TO A MILD START FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...LENDING CONFIDENCE
IN SIDING TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RUC13 BY FAR THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS FOR HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM 87 AT KSLB TO 99 FOR K9V9. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE
GIVEN ITS 925MB TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY
STAYING 3-5F LOWER THAN RUC13 PROJECTED MAX TEMP...MORE IN REALM OF
WARMER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 04/00Z NAM AND 03/12Z GEM. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL STAY IN CHECK AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY POTENTIAL DETRIMENT TO 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES TODAY WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET FOR FIREWORKS...BUT SHOULD STILL
BE IN 10-20 MPH RANGE GIVEN FORECAST WINDS OF 15-25KT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. MILD TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE MODEST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BENEATH DEVELOPING 35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STRONGEST OVERNIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN...WHERE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH COULD BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...STILL LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER GIVEN DRY
LAYER BELOW 700MB. HOWEVER...HARD TO ARGUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z...AHEAD OF
SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH TRACKS INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL SATURATION DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
AXIS ABOVE 700MB...SO WILL HANG ONTO NARROW AREA OF ISOLATED POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. BIGGER QUESTION IS
WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR FAR WEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
SD. CONSENSUS KEEPS BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME NEAR SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE AREA...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE MID 90S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...COULD SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REACHING CHAMBERLAIN AREA
PRIOR TO SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
WILL STILL FIND THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AREA SHEARS IN DEFORMATION ON BACK SIDE
OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW. STILL HAVE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT STILL JUST ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF MOIST NEUTRAL
TO GIVE SOME 100-300 J/KG CAPE. FORCING ENTIRELY MID LEVEL...AND
DIV Q SIGNATURE ALONG WITH THE 700 HPA THETA E ADVECTION INDICATE
WEAKENING POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN TOWARD MIDDAY...SO ENDED THREAT BY
15Z AFTER WORKING JUST A BIT EASTWARD. LIKELY THAT NET STORM
MOTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT EAST OF SOUTH GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE. REST
OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
OVER TODAY. QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
SUITE GIVEN THE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. BY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT...CWA COULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER
MCS...DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS SD. THIS AREA WILL LINGER
ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOON BE ON THE WEAKENING TREND WITH WAVE
MOVING PAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING MORE OFF SURFACE.
DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUDS...WILL BE WIDE POTENTIAL RANGE OF
TEMPS ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FIND A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN
DEWPOINTS WHICH COULD CRACK 70 DEGREES PRIOR TO DEEPER MIXING. AS
A RESULT...POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON HEATING. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF SOUNDINGS
FROM VARIOUS SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY STOUT CAP WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNLESS TEMPS ARE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
THAN EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO BE
BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE HEATED OUT CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THROUGH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH POTENTIAL AS WELL ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH HANG UP TOWARD HIGHWAY 14. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG INSTABILITY...AND THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A
MENTIONABLE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT COVERAGE COULD BE
LIMITED BY THE DEGREE OF CAPPING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY AS
WAVY ZONAL FLOW AROUND TO START...WITH SEVERAL SUGGESTIONS OF SOME
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS PRETTY RANDOM BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AND ONE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE THE LOWER LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP AS EACH PASSES AND INDUCES CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
SOUTHEASTWARD... THERE IS A GREATER IDEA BUILDING THAT RIDGING
WHICH BUILDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY HELP TO BRING A BRIEF
END TO CONVECTION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS MORE SO THAN
INDICATED IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE MOMENT...WILL USE A HIGHER
POP SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT LOWER NORTH TO INDICATE THE TREND. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT...AND FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENS... WOULD GET SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL JET
RETURN...AND WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...LIKELY THAT WOULD SEE SOME ENHANCED THREAT FOR
STORMS...PERHAPS WELL ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A FEW SEVERE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE INITIAL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW
READINGS WORKING BACK TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TOWARD MIDWEEK. FAIRLY
HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE SOLID POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER ISOLATED HIGH
BASED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AFTER
05/06Z. MORE FAVORED AREAS TO SEE THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXTEND FROM
KYKN...THROUGH KFSD...INTO KPQN/KBKX/KMML AREAS DURING THE 06Z-12Z
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY TSRA...HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25KT EXPECTED
04/17Z-05/01Z. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER 35-45KT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 04Z WHICH COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS TO SOME AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO THE STRONGER GUSTS TONIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1018 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...SUBSIDENCE OVER AREA HAS CLEARED SKIES AND DISSIPATED
FOG OVER ALL AREAS EXCEPT LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS FROM SHEBOYGAN
NORTHWARD. THIS AREA OF FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REFLECTING WHAT ALL MODELS SHOW...TAKING THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF AREA BY 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH COLUMN DRYING AND LITTLE TO NO OMEGA. BUT
NAM...RAP AND HRRR LOW-LAYER MOISTURE/VSBY FORECASTS KEEP THE FOG
OVER THE LAKE JUST OFFSHORE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH PARALLEL TO THE SHORE BY 18Z. WILL KEEP FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT NEAR-SHORE LOCATIONS COULD SEE FOG
DRIFT IN FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SOUTH SFC WINDS COULD TURN INLAND WITH WARMING INLAND TEMPS.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB 4 TO 5 DEGREES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH FULL MIXING
PUTTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WHICH WILL BE SEEN IN THE WEST. WILL
FOLLOW COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE FAR EAST THAT STAY CLOSER TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST HIGHS. THE 500-600 J/KG CAPE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
WESTERN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON PREDICATED ON LOW TO MID 60 DEW
POINTS...BUT GIVEN CURRENT UPSTREAM DEW POINTS CLOSER TO LOWER MOS
GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND LACK OF FORCING REFLECTED IN MODELS WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT...BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AT PEAK HEATING.
A QUIET AND CALM NIGHT COULD BRING FOG AND HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG IN
USUAL LOCATIONS...GIVEN NEAR-SFC WINDS AROUND 14 KTS ALLOWING SOME
TURBULENT MIXING BUT LIGHT FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PATCHY
DENSE IF SFC WINDS STAY TOTALLY DECOUPLED AND CALM.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE PROGGD TO BE EITHER BISECTING THE
CWA IN A NNE/SSW FASHION OR ACROSS NW WI. PRIMARY UPPER CIRCULATION
IN MISSOURI. 850 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
925 TEMPS RAMP UP INTO THE 21-23C RANGE. LOW LEVEL FLOW
ANTICYCLONIC. ALL PROGS GOING DRY SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR LOW PLODS EAST INTO SRN IL. GEM SOLUTION HAS THE
CIRCULATION FURTHERS NORTH INTO NE IL. 12Z ECMWF WARMED 925 TEMPS TO
23-25C WHILE NAM AND GFS SHOW 21-23C. TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. SOME CAPE BUT AGAIN PLENTY OF DRY AIR
NOTED IN THE SOUNDING WITH NO LOW LEVEL TRIGGER TO LATCH ONTO.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECT BUILDING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS AS TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS
TO THE EAST. THE NAM/GFS AND GEM SHOW SUSPICIOUS VORTS WITHIN THIS
OVERALL RIDGING PATTERN. THE 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTED A SLOWER ARRIVAL TO
RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THE 00Z RUN HAS COME IN
SHOWING PRECIP ARRIVING ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM
KEEPS THIS INITIAL PRECIP ACROSS NE WI. SO COLLABORATIVELY THE
DECISION WAS MADE TO STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING ALLOWING FOR SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND JETLETS TO AFFECT THE
AREA. BUFKIT SHOWING CAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AT TIMES. DEW POINTS
CREEPING INTO THE LOW 70S WITH 850 MILLIBAR SOUTHWEST FLOW FEEDING
INTO THE AREA AT TIMES WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/SPEED
CONVERGENCE NOTED. MAY END UP SEEING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH
MCS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. 250 JET CORE JUST NORTH SUGGESTS SOME RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT ACTION. ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH WEDNESDAY FROPA ENDING
SHRA/TSRA EARLIER WHILE GFS HANGS ONTO THE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AND EVENING.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT REFLECTING WHAT ALL MODELS
SHOW...TAKING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE TURNING SOUTHWEST WITH COLUMN DRYING
AND LITTLE TO NO OMEGA. BUT NAM...RAP AND HRRR LOW-LAYER
MOISTURE/VSBY FORECASTS KEEP THE FOG OVER THE LAKE JUST OFFSHORE
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH PARALLEL TO THE SHORE BY
18Z. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT TAF SITES NEAR THE LAKE COULD
SEE FOG DRIFT IN FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOUTH SFC WINDS COULD TURN INLAND WITH
WARMING INLAND TEMPS. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND FEW-SCT SKY COULD BRING LIGHT FOG BACK TONIGHT BUT
COUNTING ON NEAR-SFC WINDS AROUND 14 KTS ALLOWING SOME TURBULENT
MIXING BUT LIGHT FOG COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME DENSE IF SFC
WINDS STAY TOTALLY DECOUPLED AND CALM.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SLB
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...SLB
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
921 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 921 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
EAST OF MASON CITY AS WELL AS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR LA
CROSSE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND ON RADAR WHICH
COINCIDES WITH SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO
HAVE BEEN FORCED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE
REGION AND IS BETWEEN A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MAIN CUT OFF LOW IN WESTERN
MISSOURI. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OR TROUGHING THAT IS HELPING TO FOCUS SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY AT 925MB WHERE THE 04.13Z RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER RH RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOWARD
THE TWIN CITIES. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LONG WILL THIS
CONVECTION HOLD ON FOR AND WHETHER ANY CHANCES NEED TO BE ADDED ON
FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. 04.13Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS
AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 04.12Z HRRR MIRRORS THIS THINKING AND
DEVELOPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WIND SHIFT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD ADDING AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY NO MEANS DOES THIS
LOOK LIKE AN ALL DAY WASH OUT...BUT RATHER SOME VERY BRIEF PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
AT 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN A BROKEN 6-12K DECK OF
CLOUDS THERE IS NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE 04.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...ML CAPES CLIMB INTO 600 TO
1000 J/KG IN THE NAM/WRF AND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS EVEN GENERATES SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WITH NO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OR LIFT AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. LIKE MUCH OF THIS WEEK...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL MIX UP TO 750 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...ML CAPES QUICKLY
FALLS TO LESS THAN 100 J/KG. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...IT
WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT EVENING TO WATCH AREA FIREWORK DISPLAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
MISSOURI WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WITH THIS TRACK...MUCH OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE AREA WILL NOT BE INFLUENCED BY THIS
SYSTEM...THE 04.00Z MODELS DO SHOW THAT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO MINNESOTA...THE NAM
WAS ABLE TO GENERATE A COLD POOL WHICH ALLOWED THE FRONT TO SINK
SOUTH INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAS MUCH WEAKER 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...THUS THE FRONT STAY MUCH FURTHER NORTH. OVERALL...
PREFERRED THE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.
FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE 700 TO
500 MB FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE AREA AND ML CAPES OF 1 TO 2K EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...THERE IS
NOT MUCH FORCING. HOWEVER WITH CAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 2 TO
4K J/KG AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT. BOTH THE
0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THERE BEING LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON
WHERE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCATED. AS A RESULT...KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.8 TO
2.2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 4.5 KM...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT...AND
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS -
ESPECIALLY AT KRST. DEEP...LIGHT WIND FIELD ALSO GOES AWAY...WHICH
WILL BE AN INHIBITOR FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1005 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
WITH UPPER HIGH REMAINING OVER WESTERN GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS WILL BE GENERALLY CAPPED OVER THE PLAINS
TODAY WITH LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION AT 550-600MB ATTM
AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS INVERSION REMAINING THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE WITH INTEGRATED GPS PW VALUES
SHOWING UPWARD TREND/PAST 24 HOURS. WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS/HIGHER FOOTHILLS. WE DO HAVE A 10 POP OVER THE URBAN
CORRIDOR BUT LATEST MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY STORMS DRIFTING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS.
.AVIATION...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT TAF`S. SURFACE WINDS ALREADY
SHIFTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE A SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR STORMS TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM MDT THU JUL 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESTRAIN CONVECTION. CAPES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 500
J/KG ON THE PLAINS. WEAK CONVECTION IN THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD
ENHANCE WITH HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL
HELP SPREAD CLOUDS ONTO THE PLAINS. BUT THAT IN TURN WILL HOLD
BACK AFTERNOON HEATING. SO WHILE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY...THAT WILL PROBABLY NOT TRANSLATE INTO MUCH RAINFALL.
STILL EXPECTING INCREASED COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAINFALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THOUGH...SO KEPT THE UPWARD TREND THERE. LEFT TODAYS
FORECAST HIGHS ALONE...THEY COULD BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IF WE CLOUD
UP EARLIER THAN EXPECTED BUT IF THERE IS SUN THOUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ON THE PLAINS THE HIGHS SHOULD BE ALRIGHT. A LITTLE
WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKS AROUND FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PRIOR TO VEERING AGAIN TO WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHOT OF
MOISTURE TO MAKES ITS WAY IN THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...
THEREBY INCREASING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE UPPER FLOW GAINS A WESTERLY COMPONENT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO THE WEE HOURS
OF THE MORNING AS WELL OUT NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACH/EXCEED AN INCH AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HEFTY VALUES IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY AS WELL...SO A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL EXIST WITH
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...DURING THIS MOIST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO STAY HIGH EVEN NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT
KDEN/KAPA AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT KBJC THIS EVENING.
HYDROLOGY...THERE IS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
TODAY...BUT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK AND MOVING.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS...BUT NO
FLOOD THREAT TODAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....ET
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT - SUNDAY)
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF A LINE FROM TABLE
ROCK TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS. RAP MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THIS INSTABILITY
AND AN INVERTED V STRUCTURE TO THE LOWER TROP...COULD CREATE A
LIMITED RISK FOR SOME WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
-20 LEVELS BEING SO LOW...WE THERE COULD BE A LIMITED HAIL RISK
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ANYONE PARTICIPATING IN FOURTH
OF JULY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR LIGHTNING
STRIKES UNDER THESE UPDRAFTS.
MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
A LOWER FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE BROAD OVERALL TROUGH AXIS WILL
STILL BE ACROSS THE OZARKS. SO CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO FOR
FRIDAY...AND EVEN LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
LOOK FOR THE WARMING TREND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY
SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY - THURSDAY)
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CONFINE THE SUMMERTIME HIGH CENTER OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE OZARKS WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND...AND KEEPING THE REGION
ALIVE FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS IS A FAIRLY DECENT PATTERN FOR AFTERNOON PULSE
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEXES ARE
ALIVE AS WELL UNDER THIS REGIME.
THE BEST SIGNAL FOR A POSSIBLE MCS WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT TRYING TO FORECAST SOMETHING LIKE THIS 6
DAYS OUT IS PRETTY CHALLENGING.
HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND STAY SAFE.
CRAMER
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID EVENING.
HAVE NOT GONE WITH A TEMPO OR PREDOMINANT WEATHER GROUP AS
CONVECTION IN EAST SPRINGFIELD LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW. HAVE GONE VCTS AT BOTH SGF/BBG THROUGH 02Z FOR NOW WITH
CLEARING AFTERWARDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT - SUNDAY)
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF A LINE FROM TABLE
ROCK TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS. RAP MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THIS INSTABILITY
AND AN INVERTED V STRUCTURE TO THE LOWER TROP...COULD CREATE A
LIMITED RISK FOR SOME WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
-20 LEVELS BEING SO LOW...WE THERE COULD BE A LIMITED HAIL RISK
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ANYONE PARTICIPATING IN FOURTH
OF JULY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR LIGHTNING
STRIKES UNDER THESE UPDRAFTS.
MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
A LOWER FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE BROAD OVERALL TROUGH AXIS WILL
STILL BE ACROSS THE OZARKS. SO CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO FOR
FRIDAY...AND EVEN LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
LOOK FOR THE WARMING TREND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY
SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY - THURSDAY)
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CONFINE THE SUMMERTIME HIGH CENTER OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE OZARKS WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND...AND KEEPING THE REGION
ALIVE FOR PRECIP CHANCES.
THIS IS A FAIRLY DECENT PATTERN FOR AFTERNOON PULSE
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEXES ARE
ALIVE AS WELL UNDER THIS REGIME.
THE BEST SIGNAL FOR A POSSIBLE MCS WOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT TRYING TO FORECAST SOMETHING LIKE THIS 6
DAYS OUT IS PRETTY CHALLENGING.
HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND STAY SAFE.
CRAMER
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
FOR THE KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER SW MO NEAR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS AT TIMES.
DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1226 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. MLCAPES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MO...AND RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A NARROW
AREA OF CAPE WITH NO CINH AT KCOU BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL MO
WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST. 12Z KSGF AND KILX SOUNDINGS AND
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP INTO THE 750-850MB LAYER
WHICH FAVORS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
BRITT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
MID LEVEL LOW OVER W CNTRL MO SHOULD ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY.
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTN AHEAD AND UNDERNEATH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS NERN AND CNTRL MO...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
MODELS ALSO GENERATE CONVECTION FURTHER E-NE INTO W CNTRL IL AS WELL
THIS AFTN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING
LEADING TO POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. WITH PLENTY OF
MRNG SOLAR INSOLATION HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY.
GKS
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW/TROF TO LINGER OVER WESTERN MO TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SO FOR TONIGHT...HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE LOW 60S.
ON FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW TO TRIGGER ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
BY SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF TO FINALLY WEAKEN/GET KICKED OUT
OF AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BEFORE
DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
AS FOR THE EXTENDED...ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO THIS FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH BERMUDA HIGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN US...WILL SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE REGION WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH. THIS WILL
SETUP SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN
TURN THESE COMPLEXES TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BE A
FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OUT WEST. SO FLOW TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...THUS FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SHIFT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE FARTHER EAST. HAVE KEPT VCTS
FROM 20-01Z TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE DRY AND VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
30 HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY WEST OF THE
TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY.
BRITT
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
315 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
FORECAST PROBLEMS CENTERED MAINLY ON THE TIMING OF WAVES IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM TOO...AND IN FACT
WE TENDED TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /WHILE STILL
RECOGNIZING THAT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW COULD WREAK HAVOC WITH HIGHS/.
TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING ITS OWN OVER THE REGION AS
OF MID AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR 500 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. STORMS FORMING BOTH OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN AND NEAR A MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MT SHOULD
AFFECT THE AREA. THE STORMS NORTH OF ROUNDUP AT 21 UTC HAVE FORMED
NEAR THAT MID-LEVEL FRONT...AND THEY SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MT HEADING INTO EVENING. ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT BEING
SEVERE SINCE IT WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MORE FAVORABLE MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 OR BETTER. RECENT HRRR RUNS
PICK UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND TAKE IT EAST OF BILLINGS...BUT THE 00
UTC NSSL WRF-ARW /WHICH ALSO HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STORMS AS OF
MID AFTERNOON/ SUGGESTS SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN THE MID LEVELS MAY AFFECT THE CITY. CHANCE-STYLE POPS THUS
REMAIN IN PLAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LIKELY POPS UNTIL
06 UTC OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION COMING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY
POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL
WY TOO. FINALLY...WE LEFT SOME POPS IN PLAY AFTER 06 UTC TOO GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
FRI...WE WILL MAINTAIN AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF MT BY EVENING...AND THAT SHOULD SERVE YIELD A MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM AND 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 KT OR BETTER. OUR
LIKELY POPS THUS LOOK LIKE A GOOD CALL...THOUGH THE PRECISE TIMING
OF THAT WAVE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND MAY INFLUENCE THE COVERAGE AND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. IN SOUTHEASTERN MT...SOME MODELS LIKE THE
12 UTC NAM SUGGEST EARLY-DAY CONVECTION WITH A WEAKER RIPPLE AHEAD
OF THE BETTER 500-HPA SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST IN THAT PART OF THE AREA CONSIDERABLY IF THAT IS CORRECT.
MOREOVER...SOME 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MIGHT BE
MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT...AND
SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT IN THAT AREA.
SAT...L0W-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN
FURTHER. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THUS EXISTS. WE
ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WAVE TIMING TO HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME THOUGH. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES. OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGHING SITTING OVER WASHINGTON
THROUGH MONDAY. LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS UP AND THUS CAPES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HIGH. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
AROUND AN INCH WILL TRANSLATE INTO VERY HEAVY RIAN IN STORMS.
THE NORTHWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH MONTANA ON
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE TROUGH WOULD CONCENTRATE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH THEN SLIDES EAST
WEDNESDAY AND ALLOWS AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PRETTY FLAT AND THUS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM RIDING OVER THE TOP FOR MORE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FLOW BACKS INTO THURSDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP
THE STRING OF CONVECTION GOING. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL. DID RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO GO
ALONG WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE TORRENTIAL RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40KTS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066/088 062/083 060/088 061/087 061/084 061/085 061/090
45/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
LVM 057/086 053/085 051/084 051/085 051/082 051/085 049/090
46/T 64/T 43/T 43/T 32/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 065/089 062/085 060/091 061/089 061/085 061/086 061/091
45/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
MLS 067/089 065/085 062/091 062/088 062/084 063/086 060/090
36/T 53/T 34/T 33/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
4BQ 061/089 059/085 059/089 059/089 060/084 059/084 058/089
25/T 54/T 44/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
BHK 061/085 059/083 058/086 058/085 060/081 057/080 055/085
26/T 63/T 24/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
SHR 060/086 059/082 056/087 055/087 056/083 055/083 054/089
45/T 55/T 55/T 44/T 43/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO START TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. LAPS
ANALYSIS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...AND THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A NOSE OF A JET MOVING MOVING INTO THE
STATE...THOUGH SOME MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY AS YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABOVE
REASONS...THOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE A STORM OR TWO THAT PRODUCES
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WEST...NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF ACTIVITY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE HRRR ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NM AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL HAPPEN. FOCUSED POPS
MAINLY ACROSS WC/SW AREAS...THOUGH CONTINUED SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WHERE STORMS ARE JUST INCREASING IN
COVERAGE.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL INCH EASTWARD FRIDAY...CENTERING OVER EASTERN
AZ. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS THAT
DESPITE SOME WEAK W/NW FLOW BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS NW
NM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABUNDANT. OTHER MODELS ARE
NOT AS BULLISH ON QPF...THOUGH SEEMINGLY...THE NAM HAS BEEN
PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS OF LATE REGARDING
CONVECTION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE PERHAPS
ROUNDING THE HIGH. THUS...KNOCKED POPS UP A BIT MORE FOR
FRIDAY...AND SPREAD THEM EASTWARD A BIT AS WELL. STEERING FLOW
SHOULD TAKE STORMS A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...THOUGH OVERALL
IT WILL BE LIGHTER.
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE SQUARE OVER NM. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO KEEP THE AREA CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE WEAK...THROUGH STORMS MAY NOT BE AS POTENT GIVEN THE
UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD. ON SUNDAY...THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF SHIFT
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH EASTWARD OVER OKLAHOMA...ALLOWING FOR WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A MORE TRADITIONAL PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL NM. MEANWHILE...THE NAM AND THE GFS KEEP THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH OVER NM...LIMITING ANY NORTHWARD MOVING MOISTURE.
REGARDLESS...SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE...THOUGH WILL BE MORESO IF THE
HIGH CAN SHIFT EAST.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL WOBBLE AROUND
SOME...AND MODELS STILL ARE AT ODDS WITH WHERE IT WILL END UP. AN
EASTERLY WAVE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO...AND
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MAY HELP SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FINALLY A SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY...AS THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST HAS BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED
AND THE CENTER HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTH...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN ARIZONA. UPPER LOW STILL OVER MISSOURI. GRADIENT ACROSS
NEW MEXICO HAS RELAXED A BIT BUT STILL A 60 KNOT UPPER JET OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND A LITTLE SLOWER TO FIRE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. STILL EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STEERING FLOW IS STILL NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH MAGNITUDES JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS TO BE FAVORED WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
EAST.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND WITH LITTLE SCOURING OF MOISTURE DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THE STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM DAY TO DAY.
BY LATE FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER EXTREME WESTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER MISSOURI...THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BE WEAKER YET...WITH A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS SHIFT...ALONG WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH SIMILAR
DISTRIBUTIONS TO TODAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY... THE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
RECYCLING IN PLACE. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SLOWER MOVING WETTING RAIN...WITH THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS SEEING THE LEAST ACTION.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST WHILE
ELONGATING IT TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES. DRIER AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A HIGH HAINES OF 6
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
WETTING RAIN WITH SMALL FOOTPRINTS.
RH RECOVERIES TO BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FAIR VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
HIGHLANDS. VENTILATION TO BE MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR VALUES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE TODAY BUT STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE DAY WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN BY 19Z. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE STEADILY BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z AND SHOULD BE GREATEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS...CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. STEERING
FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH TO SOUTH. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 OR 50 MPH. LOOK FOR
LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES NEAR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE
THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 62 95 63 95 / 10 20 10 10
DULCE........................... 49 88 47 90 / 30 40 20 20
CUBA............................ 53 91 54 92 / 30 40 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 58 89 57 89 / 20 30 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 52 83 48 83 / 30 40 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 56 89 56 89 / 30 40 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 59 87 57 86 / 40 50 40 40
GLENWOOD........................ 58 91 55 91 / 30 40 30 30
CHAMA........................... 47 80 47 82 / 30 50 30 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 85 62 87 / 30 50 30 30
PECOS........................... 58 81 60 83 / 30 50 40 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 80 56 82 / 20 50 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 45 74 44 76 / 30 60 40 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 77 39 80 / 20 60 40 50
TAOS............................ 49 86 53 89 / 20 40 30 30
MORA............................ 51 80 55 83 / 20 60 40 40
ESPANOLA........................ 59 89 61 91 / 20 40 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 60 84 62 86 / 20 50 40 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 89 61 92 / 20 40 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 90 68 92 / 20 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 91 69 93 / 20 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 92 67 94 / 20 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 91 66 93 / 20 30 30 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 93 65 95 / 20 30 30 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 95 65 95 / 20 30 30 20
SOCORRO......................... 65 98 65 100 / 20 30 30 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 91 60 93 / 30 50 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 61 90 62 92 / 30 50 40 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 87 56 89 / 30 60 40 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 85 58 88 / 30 70 50 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 87 61 89 / 30 50 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 90 63 91 / 30 40 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 55 80 58 81 / 30 50 40 40
CAPULIN......................... 53 83 59 85 / 10 40 30 40
RATON........................... 54 88 58 91 / 10 40 30 40
SPRINGER........................ 53 89 57 91 / 10 40 30 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 85 57 87 / 20 50 40 40
CLAYTON......................... 60 92 65 93 / 10 30 20 30
ROY............................. 59 87 63 90 / 10 40 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 64 93 67 96 / 20 30 30 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 93 68 96 / 20 30 30 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 96 69 98 / 20 20 30 30
CLOVIS.......................... 61 92 65 93 / 10 20 30 20
PORTALES........................ 61 91 65 93 / 10 10 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 93 67 94 / 20 20 30 30
ROSWELL......................... 65 96 69 97 / 10 20 30 20
PICACHO......................... 59 89 63 91 / 20 30 30 20
ELK............................. 57 83 62 84 / 30 50 50 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
UPDATE...
CURRENT CONVECTION IS WANING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ALTHOUGH
NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED YET. HAVE HAD SOME MESONET SITES THIS
MORNING WITH SOME MEASURABLE /ALBEIT VERY LOW/ AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
HAVE TRIMMED THE AREA OF MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND REDUCED
THE MENTION TO SHOWERS. THINGS LOOK A BIT MORE IN QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD SOME LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN
THE WEST AND CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND ADDITIONAL RUNS OF
STORM-SCALE MODELS THROUGH THE SHIFT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
AVIATION...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY FORM AFTER 6Z IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY MID MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND 7H WINDS BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE. NAM12 SUGGEST SIMILAR SETUP FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION WILL
FLATTEN THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...HIGHER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OK...SO HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. THE EC PUSHES A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
WEDNESDAY...AS A SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 65 91 68 / 10 20 10 0
HOBART OK 93 64 95 69 / 20 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 66 96 71 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 90 63 96 69 / 20 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 87 63 90 67 / 20 10 10 0
DURANT OK 90 66 92 69 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
132 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
ALREADY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS POPPING UP IN THE NW AND MODERATE CU
OVER THE BALANCE OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SCT TO NMRS POPS LOOKING
GOOD FOR THE AFTN AND VERY EARLY EVENING. WARM AIR ALOFT KEEPING
THE LID ON PLACES WHICH DON/T HAVE ADDED LIFT/FOCUS LIKE THE
TALLEST HILLS DO. CAPES ALREADY FAIRLY HIGH AND BULK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OVER 40 KTS OVER THE NW. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF ISOLD SEVERE STORMS POSS IN THE NW. MOST LIKELY PROBLEM
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS...AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEP THE THREAT OF
HAIL LOW. TEMPS RIGHT ON TRACK...BUT STRONG JULY SUN COULD BOOST
THE MAXES A FEW MORE DEGS.
THE BIGGEST WORRY IN THE FORECAST IS THE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 9 PM. WHILE THE CONVECTION WILL
BE WANING AT THAT TIME...HRRR AND RUC STILL KEEP SOME SCT STORMS
IN THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH 10 OR 11 PM. WILL KEEP ON WITH LOW CHC
POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AS THE MODEL FINE-SCALE PHYSICS AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETRIZATION SCHEMES ARE NOT TO THE POINT YET WHERE
THEY INSTILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AREAL PLACEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO SVR EVENING TSRA OVR THE W
MTNS EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. BULK OF MDL
DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE E GRT LKS LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
LIKELY TO HELP INITIATE PM TSRA ACROSS NW PA. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
CONVECTION WILL WORK SE...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE BEST CHC
OF PRECIP OVR THE NW MTNS AND LEAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE FRIDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WITH READINGS REACHING THE L90S
UNDER MOSUNNY SKIES. MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION MAY
HOLD READINGS IN THE L80S ACROSS THE NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LG
SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL SHOWING CUT OFF LOW OVR
THE MISS VALL OPENING UP AND LIFTING ACROSS PA ON SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM EDGES CLOSER TO PA...ASSOC DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF HIGH PWATS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALL TO PA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...INCREASED CHC OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SAT PM. THE
CHC OF DAILY CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PA WILL REMAIN
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS...CENTRAL PA MAY BE DEALING WITH DAILY RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION.
WHAT APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE
ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED FCST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER PLUME OF
ABV NORMAL HUMIDITY/PWATS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGH MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL CU ACTUALLY DECREASING OVER THE SW...SO WILL KEEP MENTIONS
OF VCSH TO THE OTHER TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN CALL
IT VCSH WITH TEMPO MVFR SHRA FOR ALL AREAS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 21Z AND
01Z. COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AND TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH
TERMINALS WILL DEAL WITH TSRA AND ASSOCD REDUCTIONS TO FLIGHT
CATG. BFD AND IPT ALREADY HAVE VCSH AND CELL NEAR IPT MAY THUNDER
SOON.
NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS...
BUT CONVECTION ON-GOING AT 00Z/01Z MAY TAKE UNTIL 03Z TO DIE AWAY.
THE NEAR TERM MODELS PLACE MOST OF THE SHOWERS OVER AOO/UNV AROUND
SUNSET. THE PATTERN STAYS VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS -
SCT DIURNAL TSRA - MAINLY IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE
MTS CAN HELP WITH STORM INITIATION. OTHERWISE...THE BIG UPPER
RIDGE WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE EAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-TUE...PATCHY FOG AM...ISOLD/SCT TSRA - MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1210 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
OFF TO A MILD START FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...LENDING CONFIDENCE
IN SIDING TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RUC13 BY FAR THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS FOR HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM 87 AT KSLB TO 99 FOR K9V9. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE
GIVEN ITS 925MB TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND GENERALLY
STAYING 3-5F LOWER THAN RUC13 PROJECTED MAX TEMP...MORE IN REALM OF
WARMER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 04/00Z NAM AND 03/12Z GEM. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL STAY IN CHECK AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY POTENTIAL DETRIMENT TO 4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES TODAY WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARD SUNSET FOR FIREWORKS...BUT SHOULD STILL
BE IN 10-20 MPH RANGE GIVEN FORECAST WINDS OF 15-25KT JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. MILD TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE MODEST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BENEATH DEVELOPING 35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STRONGEST OVERNIGHT
WINDS LIKELY TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN...WHERE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH COULD BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...STILL LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER GIVEN DRY
LAYER BELOW 700MB. HOWEVER...HARD TO ARGUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z...AHEAD OF
SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH TRACKS INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL SATURATION DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
AXIS ABOVE 700MB...SO WILL HANG ONTO NARROW AREA OF ISOLATED POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. BIGGER QUESTION IS
WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR FAR WEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
SD. CONSENSUS KEEPS BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME NEAR SURFACE
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE AREA...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE MID 90S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...COULD SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REACHING CHAMBERLAIN AREA
PRIOR TO SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
WILL STILL FIND THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AREA SHEARS IN DEFORMATION ON BACK SIDE
OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW. STILL HAVE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT STILL JUST ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF MOIST NEUTRAL
TO GIVE SOME 100-300 J/KG CAPE. FORCING ENTIRELY MID LEVEL...AND
DIV Q SIGNATURE ALONG WITH THE 700 HPA THETA E ADVECTION INDICATE
WEAKENING POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN TOWARD MIDDAY...SO ENDED THREAT BY
15Z AFTER WORKING JUST A BIT EASTWARD. LIKELY THAT NET STORM
MOTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT EAST OF SOUTH GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE. REST
OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS
OVER TODAY. QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS LIKELY TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
SUITE GIVEN THE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. BY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT...CWA COULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER
MCS...DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS SD. THIS AREA WILL LINGER
ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOON BE ON THE WEAKENING TREND WITH WAVE
MOVING PAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING MORE OFF SURFACE.
DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUDS...WILL BE WIDE POTENTIAL RANGE OF
TEMPS ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FIND A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN
DEWPOINTS WHICH COULD CRACK 70 DEGREES PRIOR TO DEEPER MIXING. AS
A RESULT...POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON HEATING. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF SOUNDINGS
FROM VARIOUS SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY STOUT CAP WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNLESS TEMPS ARE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
THAN EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO BE
BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE HEATED OUT CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THROUGH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH POTENTIAL AS WELL ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH HANG UP TOWARD HIGHWAY 14. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG INSTABILITY...AND THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A
MENTIONABLE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT COVERAGE COULD BE
LIMITED BY THE DEGREE OF CAPPING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY AS
WAVY ZONAL FLOW AROUND TO START...WITH SEVERAL SUGGESTIONS OF SOME
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS PRETTY RANDOM BETWEEN
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AND ONE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE THE LOWER LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP AS EACH PASSES AND INDUCES CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
SOUTHEASTWARD... THERE IS A GREATER IDEA BUILDING THAT RIDGING
WHICH BUILDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY HELP TO BRING A BRIEF
END TO CONVECTION AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS MORE SO THAN
INDICATED IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE MOMENT...WILL USE A HIGHER
POP SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT LOWER NORTH TO INDICATE THE TREND. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT...AND FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENS... WOULD GET SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL JET
RETURN...AND WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...LIKELY THAT WOULD SEE SOME ENHANCED THREAT FOR
STORMS...PERHAPS WELL ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A FEW SEVERE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE INITIAL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW
READINGS WORKING BACK TO NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TOWARD MIDWEEK. FAIRLY
HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE SOLID POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN SD AT 17Z WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL LEAVE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE JAMES RIVER AFTER
05/06Z...ASSOCIATED WITH A 35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK...
GENERALLY UNORGANIZED FRONTOGENESIS. THE CHANCES WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED
SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY TSRA...HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20-25KT EXPECTED 04/17Z-05/01Z. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK FORCING FROM THE LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANT
OUTFLOWS OF DYING THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER
OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE EAST STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THROUGH EVENING.
FARTHER WEST...A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE NOTED ON RADAR NEAR
COMANCHE. THE AIR IS MUCH DRIER HERE AT THE SURFACE SO THIS
ACTIVITY IS BASED MUCH HIGHER. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LCL/S
AROUND 12000FT WITH ABOUT 500J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
FOR THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 80S AFTER
DARK FOR FIREWORKS.
ON FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO
SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE
INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS A LARGE
RESERVOIR OF 2 INCH PLUS PWS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE
UPPER LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AS TO THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LOW. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND
THEREFORE HAS MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF MOVES THE GULF LOW INLAND VERY QUICKLY AND
KEEPS A STRONGER RIDGE. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO
THE GFS SOLUTION AS THESE TYPES OF UPPER LOWS ARE GENERALLY SLOWER
MOVING WHEN ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE POOLS OF RICH GULF MOISTURE.
GENERALLY LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST OR INLAND CAN OFTEN TIMES HELP RELOCATE THE CENTER OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW IN WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENTS. IF THIS HAPPENS...ITS
MOVEMENT WOULD APPEAR CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE
ECMWF. RAIN CHANCES LOOK BEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE STATE...BUT ANYTIME WE GET A WEAK UPPER LOW AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY. BEST CHANCES FOR NORTH TEXAS APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HUMIDITY
WILL GO UP WITH TIME MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW NEXT WEEK TO ASSESS ITS
IMPACTS ON TEMPS/RAIN CHANCES.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 96 73 96 74 / 10 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 70 97 71 98 73 / 20 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 66 92 67 93 71 / 20 10 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 69 93 70 94 72 / 10 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 67 94 70 95 72 / 10 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 75 97 76 97 77 / 10 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 69 95 71 96 73 / 20 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 71 96 73 97 73 / 20 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 68 97 70 97 73 / 20 5 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 69 96 71 96 72 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
557 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY A
COMBINATION OF DEWPOINT MIXING...START OF COOLING NOW BEING PAST THE
TIME OF PEAK HEATING...AND OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS PUSHING
EAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
JAMES BAY SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TWO EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGES NOTED ONE ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS...EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER
NOTED OFF THE EAST COAST...EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS PLACED A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SLOWLY SAGGING EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
ANCHORED OFF OF THE EAST COAST...EXTENDING EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EARLY EVENING...KEEPING A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS A ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE
OFF AFTER WE LOSE SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. RUC ANALYSIS
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH NO
CAP IN PLACE. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WE COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. AFTER
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35
MPH IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER CAPPING IN PLACE VERSUS
VS...4TH OF JULY AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES BETWEEN
800 AND 900 MB AND SHOULD HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. THIS SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FIRING BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON THIS.
PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM
09Z TO 12Z THEN LINGERING FROM 12Z TO 15Z OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE WAVE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE TROUGH STALLS OUT ON SATURDAY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND STARTS TO ACT AS A WARM FROM AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE HIGHS PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1500
TO 1900 J/KG RANGE. THERE REALLY ISNT ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING TO
LATCH ONTO FOR STORMS TO BE TRIGGER BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO GO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A STRONGER WAVE PUSHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT RAMPS UP OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EDGING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLY AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOLDS OVER
THE EAST AND FOCUS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS FOCUSED INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 160 PERCENT
OF NORMAL AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACH 4KM...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AGAIN...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON SHEAR
PROFILES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WARM FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE AREA SOME UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND RACES EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASES TO TO
25 TO 35 KTS....SO KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS TIMEFRAME.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND AND LOW MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
THE BRIEF SHOWER THAT IMPACTED LSE BETWEEN 19-20Z HAS SHIFTED OFF
TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN BEHIND IT...THE SAME DRY AIR
THAT HAS KEPT RST DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE DRY AIR STAYS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THIS SAME COLD FRONT HAS BEEN TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE TAF SITES. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT BY 01Z. IF THEY WENT NEARLY CALM
AT RST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WOULD BE NEEDED WITH 30-35 KT WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR 1000 FT ABOVE THE GROUND. HOWEVER...WINDS JUST LOOK
TOO STRONG TO MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAF. BOTH TAF
SITES WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTS OF 20-25KT ARE LIKELY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMES
BAY SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TWO EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGES NOTED ONE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER NOTED OFF
THE EAST COAST...EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A SHORTWAVE
WAS NOTED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
PLACED A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SLOWLY SAGGING EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OFF OF
THE EAST COAST...EXTENDING EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EARLY EVENING...KEEPING A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSN. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS A ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE
OFF AFTER WE LOSE SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. RUC ANALYSIS
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH NO
CAP IN PLACE. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WE COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. AFTER
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35
MPH IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER CAPPING IN PLACE VERSUS
VS...4TH OF JULY AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES BETWEEN
800 AND 900 MB AND SHOULD HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. THIS SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM FIRING BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON THIS.
PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM
09Z TO 12Z THEN LINGERING FROM 12Z TO 15Z OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE WAVE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE TROUGH STALLS OUT ON SATURDAY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND STARTS TO ACT AS A WARM FROM AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE HIGHS PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1500
TO 1900 J/KG RANGE. THERE REALLY ISNT ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING TO
LATCH ONTO FOR STORMS TO BE TRIGGER BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO GO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A STRONGER WAVE PUSHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT RAMPS UP OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EDGING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLY AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOLDS OVER
THE EAST AND FOCUS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS FOCUSED INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 160 PERCENT
OF NORMAL AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACH 4KM...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AGAIN...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON SHEAR
PROFILES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WARM FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE AREA SOME UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND RACES EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AND
POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASES TO TO
25 TO 35 KTS....SO KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS TIMEFRAME.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND AND LOW MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TODAY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF REGION
THOUGH SOME HIGH BASED CU COULD FORM AT LSE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE
16 TO 20KT RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH
SKIES REMAINING CLEAR...BUT THEN PICK BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1237 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
MODIFIED MORNING GRB SOUNDING YIELDED SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS STILL HOLDING IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN WANING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST RUN OF
THE HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL
TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER ABOUT 19Z
OR SO...WITH A FEW SPITS OF QPF. GIVEN THE INSTABLITY...WAS NOT
COMFORTABLE LEAVING FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON...THUS ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO GRID GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CU STARTING TO POP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
SOUTHERN TAIL OF WEAK DISTURBANCE DRIFING EAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IF IT DEVELOPS.
ALSO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE NORTH
OF SHEBOYGAN TO WASHINGTON ISLAND. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTIUES TO
SHOW AREAS OF FOG JUST OFFSHORE FROM MANITOWOC NORTH...WITH DRIFT
TOWRAD THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS SHOWING SOME FAIRLY DENSE FOG AT
TIMES LATE THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO HOIST MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR FOG FOR THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF WISCONSIN BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONT AND WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES. EXPECT NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PERIOD. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD HIGHS MUCH
BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR IS A MAJOR
QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SMALL CHANCE FOR FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 20Z...BUT EXPECTED TO
BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN RHI TAF.
SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG... OVER FOX VALLEY INCLUDING GRB
AND ATW AFTER 09Z FRIDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
EAST OF MASON CITY AS WELL AS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR LA
CROSSE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND ON RADAR WHICH
COINCIDES WITH SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO
HAVE BEEN FORCED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE
REGION AND IS BETWEEN A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MAIN CUT OFF LOW IN WESTERN
MISSOURI. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OR TROUGHING THAT IS HELPING TO FOCUS SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY AT 925MB WHERE THE 04.13Z RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER RH RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOWARD
THE TWIN CITIES. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LONG WILL THIS
CONVECTION HOLD ON FOR AND WHETHER ANY CHANCES NEED TO BE ADDED ON
FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. 04.13Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS
AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 04.12Z HRRR MIRRORS THIS THINKING AND
DEVELOPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WIND SHIFT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD ADDING AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY NO MEANS DOES THIS
LOOK LIKE AN ALL DAY WASH OUT...BUT RATHER SOME VERY BRIEF PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
AT 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN A BROKEN 6-12K DECK OF
CLOUDS THERE IS NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE 04.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...ML CAPES CLIMB INTO 600 TO
1000 J/KG IN THE NAM/WRF AND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS EVEN GENERATES SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WITH NO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OR LIFT AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT...
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. LIKE MUCH OF THIS WEEK...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE AREA WILL MIX UP TO 750 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...ML CAPES QUICKLY
FALLS TO LESS THAN 100 J/KG. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...IT
WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT EVENING TO WATCH AREA FIREWORK DISPLAYS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
MISSOURI WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WITH THIS TRACK...MUCH OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE AREA WILL NOT BE INFLUENCED BY THIS
SYSTEM...THE 04.00Z MODELS DO SHOW THAT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO MINNESOTA...THE NAM
WAS ABLE TO GENERATE A COLD POOL WHICH ALLOWED THE FRONT TO SINK
SOUTH INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAS MUCH WEAKER 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...THUS THE FRONT STAY MUCH FURTHER NORTH. OVERALL...
PREFERRED THE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.
FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE 700 TO
500 MB FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK TO MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE AREA AND ML CAPES OF 1 TO 2K EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY MORNING
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...THERE IS
NOT MUCH FORCING. HOWEVER WITH CAPES CLIMBING INTO THE 2 TO
4K J/KG AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT. BOTH THE
0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THERE BEING LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON
WHERE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCATED. AS A RESULT...KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 1.8 TO
2.2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 4.5 KM...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TODAY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF REGION
THOUGH SOME HIGH BASED CU COULD FORM AT LSE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE
16 TO 20KT RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH
SKIES REMAINING CLEAR...BUT THEN PICK BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1132 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
UPDATED TO ADD SHORT TERM PORTION FOR MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
MODIFIED MORNING GRB SOUNDING YIELDED SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS STILL HOLDING IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN WANING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST RUN OF
THE HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL
TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER ABOUT 19Z
OR SO...WITH A FEW SPITS OF QPF. GIVEN THE INSTABLITY...WAS NOT
COMFORTABLE LEAVING FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON...THUS ADDED
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO GRID GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CU STARTING TO POP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF
SOUTHERN TAIL OF WEAK DISTURBANCE DRIFING EAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IF IT DEVELOPS.
ALSO SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE NORTH
OF SHEBOYGAN TO WASHINGTON ISLAND. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTIUES TO
SHOW AREAS OF FOG JUST OFFSHORE FROM MANITOWOC NORTH...WITH DRIFT
TOWRAD THE LAKESHORE. WEBCAMS SHOWING SOME FAIRLY DENSE FOG AT
TIMES LATE THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO HOIST MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR FOG FOR THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF WISCONSIN BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONT AND WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES. EXPECT NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PERIOD. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD HIGHS MUCH
BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR IS A MAJOR
QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
SCATTERED IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND CIGS WILL LINGER TO AROUND
15Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT PATCHY MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG LIKELY AGAIN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH