Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/03/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ELSEWHERE. MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SUPPORTS A GENERALLY
SWLY STORM MOVEMENT INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON VARIOUS MESOSCALE
MODELS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD INTO
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS WRN SECTIONS.
AS WAS THE CASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE 18Z RUC HRRR
DEVELOPS ADDITIONAL PRECIP ECHOES ACROSS ERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION THRU WED. UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SWD INTO ARIZONA
BY SAT. AS WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...THERE WERE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE 01/12Z GFS/ECMWF PARTICULARLY REGARDING QPF/S. HAVE
NOTED THAT THE 01/12Z ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTIONS
WITH DEPICTING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED QPF/S DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. GIVEN THIS CONTINUITY...HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD PARTICULARLY
WED EVENING AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING VERSUS PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. ASSUMING AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WED EVENING...
THUR MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUN-MON. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL JUSTIFY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM TUCSON EWD WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY.
DAYTIME TEMPS TUE AND CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z...
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA/-SHRA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. MOVEMENT WILL GENERALLY BE NE-SW. GUSTS TO 60 KTS WITH MVFR
VSBYS IN BLDU ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THRU
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED EAST MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
STORMS WILL BE HEAVIEST IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD SPREAD TO
SOME VALLEY AREAS. STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
BF/MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
315 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY...
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 1230PM ONE OF THESE SHORT WVS IS EXITING THE E PTNS OF THE
FCA...WMFNT MOISTURE/-SHRA SURGES ARE DEVELOPING FM W/CNTRL NYS
TWRD ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF AREA WILL BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS TILL
DIURNALLY CONVECTION FIRES IN S. WMFNT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALREADY
WATER LOGGED AREAS OF W MHWK VLY AND W ADNDKS.
ATM HRRR HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED ATTM. DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THE NEXT SHORT WV COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS OVERSPREADING RGN AFT 21UTC....PARTICULARLY
N OF MSV-BRATTLEBORO LN. WRF HAS FRONTAL OUTBREAK A TAD FURTHER S.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BYND. WITH RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER
SATURATED...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO
RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT
REMAIN. WMFMT SURGES (OVERRUNNING) PCPN MAX AREA FM ADIRONDACKS
INTO SVT OVERNIGHT ON NAM...GFS ACROSS MOST OF FCA...GEM TRACKS IT
BWTN. WHILE TIMING AND LOCALES MAY BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...THE
THREAT OF SURGES OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N
ADIRONDACKS.
TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN
ASSOC WITH WMFNTL/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE
BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD.
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL
AT.
WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL
PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O
INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS
WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY
AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY
THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP.
NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS.
LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE
SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE EFP MAJOR W ATLC ANTICYCLONE AT SFC AND 500HPA (KNOWN
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH) RETROGRADES TO THE ATLC SEABOARD..AS THE
500HPA TROF RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS.
THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FCA FRI...THE GFS
SHIFTS IT OUT OF THE FCA FOR THE WEEKEND AND BACK MONDAY. THE GEM
DISPLACES IT FURTHER N AND W TO W PERIPHERY...AND ECMWF HAS IT
DRIFTING IN AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE VARIABLE SUNSHINE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH CHC MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS. THE THREAT WILL
BE LEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S TO ARND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE VSBYS HAVE
GENERALLY INCREASED ABOVE 6 SM...CIGS REMAINS MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES
FOR EARLY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD REDUCE
VSBYS/CIGS BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
DUE TO LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND THERE IS NOT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MAINLY LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S. THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING.
THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS. STILL...FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY REMAIN MVFR WITH SOME BKN LOWER CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-SAT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY...
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 1230PM ONE OF THESE SHORT WVS IS EXITING THE E PTNS OF THE
FCA...WMFNT MOISTURE/-SHRA SURGES ARE DEVELOPING FM W/CNTRL NYS
TWRD ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF AREA WILL BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS TILL
DIURNALLY CONVECTION FIRES IN S. WMFNT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALREADY
WATER LOGGED AREAS OF W MHWK VLY AND W ADNDKS.
ATM HRRR HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED ATTM. DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THE NEXT SHORT WV COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS OVERSPREADING RGN AFT 21UTC....PARTICULARLY
N OF MSV-BRATTLEBORO LN. WRF HAS FRONTAL OUTBREAK A TAD FURTHER S.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BYND. WITH RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER
SATURATED...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO
RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT
REMAIN. WMFMT SURGES (OVERRUNNING) PCPN MAX AREA FM ADIRONDACKS
INTO SVT OVERNIGHT ON NAM...GFS ACROSS MOST OF FCA...GEM TRACKS IT
BWTN. WHILE TIMING AND LOCALES MAY BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...THE
THREAT OF SURGES OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N
ADIRONDACKS.
TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN
ASSOC WITH WMFNTL/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE
BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD.
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL
AT.
WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL
PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O
INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS
WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY
AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY
THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP.
NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS.
LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE
SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES THE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH INFLUENCING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DECREASING TREND IN THE POPS EXTENDS INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEKEND...AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THEN THE BERMUDA
HIGH MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.
FRI TO SAT...A BROKEN RECORD...REPEAT PATTERN OF ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION TO ENTER THE
WEEKEND. THE POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES ON SATURDAY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOW CHC MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WITH THE SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MAKING PROGRESS. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MAINLY 80S AND L90S...AND LOWS IN THE
60S TO L70S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLE OR
OPPRESSIVE.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA...AND THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GFS/ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING ZONAL.
THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO BUILDS WESTWARD AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
IS STILL AN ISOLD THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.
SFC DEWPTS MAY DROP IN THE LOWER TO M60S WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE...AS
HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHS PEAKS. LOWS IN THE 60S WILL PREVAIL.
OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH PCPN STILL POTENTIALLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS. NO IMMEDIATE RELIEF WITH MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE VSBYS HAVE
GENERALLY INCREASED ABOVE 6 SM...CIGS REMAINS MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES
FOR EARLY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD REDUCE
VSBYS/CIGS BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
DUE TO LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND THERE IS NOT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MAINLY LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S. THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING.
THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS. STILL...FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY REMAIN MVFR WITH SOME BKN LOWER CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-SAT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11/NAS
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...WFO ALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY...
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 1230PM ONE OF THESE SHORT WVS IS EXITING THE E PTNS OF THE
FCA...WMFNT MOISTURE/-SHRA SURGES ARE DEVELOPING FM W/CNTRL NYS
TWRD ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF AREA WILL BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS TILL
DIURNALLY CONVECTION FIRES IN S. WMFNT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALREADY
WATER LOGGED AREAS OF W MHWK VLY AND W ADNDKS.
ATM HRRR HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED ATTM. DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THE NEXT SHORT WV COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS OVERSPREADING RGN AFT 21UTC....PARTICULARLY
N OF MSV-BRATTLEBORO LN. WRF HAS FRONTAL OUTBREAK A TAD FURTHER S.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BYND. WITH RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER
SATURATED...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO
RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT
REMAIN. WMFMT SURGES (OVERRUNNING) PCPN MAX AREA FM ADIRONDACKS
INTO SVT OVERNIGHT ON NAM...GFS ACROSS MOST OF FCA...GEM TRACKS IT
BWTN. WHILE TIMING AND LOCALES MAY BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...THE
THREAT OF SURGES OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N
ADIRONDACKS.
TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN
ASSOC WITH WMFNTL/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE
BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD.
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL
AT.
WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL
PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O
INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS
WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY
AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY
THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP.
NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS.
LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE
SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES THE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH INFLUENCING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DECREASING TREND IN THE POPS EXTENDS INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEKEND...AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THEN THE BERMUDA
HIGH MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.
FRI TO SAT...A BROKEN RECORD...REPEAT PATTERN OF ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION TO ENTER THE
WEEKEND. THE POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES ON SATURDAY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOW CHC MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WITH THE SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MAKING PROGRESS. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MAINLY 80S AND L90S...AND LOWS IN THE
60S TO L70S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLE OR
OPPRESSIVE.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA...AND THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GFS/ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING ZONAL.
THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO BUILDS WESTWARD AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
IS STILL AN ISOLD THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.
SFC DEWPTS MAY DROP IN THE LOWER TO M60S WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE...AS
HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHS PEAKS. LOWS IN THE 60S WILL PREVAIL.
OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH PCPN STILL POTENTIALLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS. NO IMMEDIATE RELIEF WITH MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU.
THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE LATE MORNING
KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. THE RAIN MAY BECOME
STEADIER AND HEAVIER JUST BEFORE NOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VSBYS WERE LOWERED IN THE IFR RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CIGS WERE
KEPT IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPSF. ALL THE TERMINALS MAY NEED IFR CIGS WITH LATER
TAF ISSUANCES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND IT HAS
BEEN KEPT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW PROBS /30 PERCENT OR LESS/.
THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TOO.
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN MAY LESSEN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE SITES.
THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE N/NE FROM KALB NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10
KTS...BUT VEER TO THE S AT KPOU AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11/NAS
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1239 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY...
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 1230PM ONE OF THESE SHORT WVS IS EXITING THE E PTNS OF THE
FCA...WMFNT MOISTURE/-SHRA SURGES ARE DEVELOPING FM W/CNTRL NYS
TWRD ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF AREA WILL BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS TILL
DIURNALLY CONVECTION FIRES IN S. WMFNT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALREADY
WATER LOGGED AREAS OF W MHWK VLY AND W ADNDKS.
ATM HRRR HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED ATTM. DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THE NEXT SHORT WV COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS OVERSPREADING RGN AFT 21UTC....PARTICULARLY
N OF MSV-BRATTLEBORO LN. WRF HAS FRONTAL OUTBREAK A TAD FURTHER S.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BYND. WITH RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER
SATURATED...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO
RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
TONIGHT THE AIR MASS AND WMFNT REMAIN. WMFMT SURGES(OVERRUNNING)
PCPN MAX AREA FM ADIRONDACKS INTO SVT OVERNIGHT ON NAM...GFS ACROSS MOST
OF FCA...GEM TRACKS IT BWTN. WHILE TIMING AND LOCALES MAY BE HARD
TO PIN DOWN...THE THREAT OF SURGES OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM
NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE
N ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTION OF FA TONIGHT AND THEN
SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER LATE TUESDAY. PWATS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH BTWN 1.5 AND 2+ INCHES AND THETA E RIDGE
AXIS H10-H8 ACTUALLY BECOMES STRONGER WITH TIME. THUS WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK TO BE COMMON WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. WITH MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW MOISTURE ALL OF THE WAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WHICH HINGES ON HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR OUR EAST
WORKING WESTWARD AND PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WEDNESDAY AS GGEM WOULD HAVE FA MAINLY DRY
WITH ECMWF...NAM AND GFS ALL SHOWING MORE RAIN DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES THE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH INFLUENCING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DECREASING TREND IN THE POPS EXTENDS INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEKEND...AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THEN THE BERMUDA
HIGH MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WILL STILL FEATURE A
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE WILL BE NEAR
BERMUDA. A MOIST CHANNEL OF WARM AND HUMID AIR IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVEL S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...AND THE RIDGE. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
WASHOUT...BUT THEIR IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH. PWATS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL SO HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE COVERAGE IN THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING
BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM/HPC GUIDANCE. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE MID AND U80S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. LOWS WILL BE
STICKY IN THE 60S TO L70S IN THE MUGGY AIR MASS.
FRI TO SAT...A BROKEN RECORD...REPEAT PATTERN OF ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION TO ENTER THE
WEEKEND. THE POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES ON SATURDAY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOW CHC MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WITH THE SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MAKING PROGRESS. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MAINLY 80S AND L90S...AND LOWS IN THE
60S TO L70S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLE OR
OPPRESSIVE.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA...AND THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GFS/ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING ZONAL.
THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO BUILDS WESTWARD AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
IS STILL AN ISOLD THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.
SFC DEWPTS MAY DROP IN THE LOWER TO M60S WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE...AS
HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHS PEAKS. LOWS IN THE 60S WILL PREVAIL.
OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH PCPN STILL POTENTIALLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS. NO IMMEDIATE RELIEF WITH MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU.
THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE LATE MORNING
KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. THE RAIN MAY BECOME
STEADIER AND HEAVIER JUST BEFORE NOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VSBYS WERE LOWERED IN THE IFR RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CIGS WERE
KEPT IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPSF. ALL THE TERMINALS MAY NEED IFR CIGS WITH LATER
TAF ISSUANCES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND IT HAS
BEEN KEPT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW PROBS /30 PERCENT OR LESS/.
THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TOO.
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN MAY LESSEN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE SITES.
THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE N/NE FROM KALB NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10
KTS...BUT VEER TO THE S AT KPOU AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11/NAS
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER ORANGE COUNTY AT THIS TIME. SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD
IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH TRAINING A CONCERN AND RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN ORANGE COUNTY...FLASH FLOODING IS A
POSSIBILITY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MAINE...SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...WILL LIFT NNEWD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESS WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES SEEN IN THE 00Z
SOUNDING AND IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NJ
OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA.
THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE
AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WILL MEAN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THESE
AREAS WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE AREA AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND SOME WEAK LIFTING WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE DRYING PROFILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW
BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP. 85H TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME WILL AVERAGE 16 TO 18 DEG C. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
FRI INTO SAT AS SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION THOUGH STILL APPEARS TO
BE SCT IN NATURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER OR DYNAMICS TO
RELY ON.
HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF PCPN.
ONE AREA OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...EXPECT
TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO THE
EVENING.
MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
LATER THIS AFTN...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINS.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TSTM ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT SITES WEST OF
NYC...THOUGH A STRAY TSTM COULD MAKE IT INTO THE CITY TERMINALS.
EXPECTING JUST SHRA OVER LI/CT SITES. PSBL PCPN AGAIN TONIGHT BUT
TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE.
CIGS AND VIS WILL GO UP AND DOWN WITH SPOTTY PCPN. FOR THE
DAY...CURRENTLY THINKING MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE HEAVIER PCPN
MAY BRING IN IFR OR LOWER.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTN.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE TODAY. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER 1-2
HOURS MORE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE TODAY.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTN.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE TODAY.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF TSTMS TODAY. LIGHT PCPN THIS MORNING...BCMG HEAVIER
THIS AFTN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUES-FRI...
SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS...GENERALLY EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING.
IFR OR LOWER PSBL AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND THROUGH 2 PM
THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY.
PERSISTENT S SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT
SCA LEVELS.
A GRADUALLY VEERING SLY FLOW TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD
ALLOW MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO FALL BELOW 5 FT BY
THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
NJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...AND PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES...SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY APPROACH AND EXCEED BANKFULL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
710 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER ORANGE COUNTY AT THIS TIME. SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD
IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH TRAINING A CONCERN AND RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN ORANGE COUNTY...FLASH FLOODING IS A
POSSIBILITY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MAINE...SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...WILL LIFT NNEWD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESS WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES SEEN IN THE 00Z
SOUNDING AND IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NJ
OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA.
THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE
AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WILL MEAN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THESE
AREAS WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE AREA AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND SOME WEAK LIFTING WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE DRYING PROFILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW
BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP. 85H TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME WILL AVERAGE 16 TO 18 DEG C. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
FRI INTO SAT AS SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION THOUGH STILL APPEARS TO
BE SCT IN NATURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER OR DYNAMICS TO
RELY ON.
HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF PCPN.
ONE AREA OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...EXPECT
TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO THE
EVENING.
MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN...WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TSTM
ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT SITES WEST OF NYC...THOUGH A STRAY TSTM COULD
MAKE IT INTO THE CITY TERMINALS. EXPECTING JUST SHRA OVER LI/CT
SITES. PSBL PCPN AGAIN THIS COMING NIGHT BUT TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE.
CIGS AND VIS WILL GO UP AND DOWN THE REST OF TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING GENERALLY IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. FOR THE
DAY...CURRENTLY THINKING MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE HEAVIER
PCPN MAY BRING IN IFR OR LOWER.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
1-2 HOURS MORE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF TSTMS TODAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NGT-FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS.
IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND THROUGH 2 PM
THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY.
PERSISTENT S SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT
SCA LEVELS.
A GRADUALLY VEERING SLY FLOW TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD
ALLOW MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO FALL BELOW 5 FT BY
THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
NJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...AND PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES...SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY APPROACH AND EXCEED BANKFULL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
529 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MAINE...SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...WILL LIFT NNEWD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESS WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES SEEN IN THE 00Z
SOUNDING AND IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NJ
OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA.
THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE
AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WILL MEAN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THESE
AREAS WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE AREA AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND SOME WEAK LIFTING WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE DRYING PROFILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW
BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP. 85H TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME WILL AVERAGE 16 TO 18 DEG C. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
FRI INTO SAT AS SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION THOUGH STILL APPEARS TO
BE SCT IN NATURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER OR DYNAMICS TO
RELY ON.
HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF PCPN.
ONE AREA OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...EXPECT
TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO THE
EVENING.
MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN...WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TSTM
ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT SITES WEST OF NYC...THOUGH A STRAY TSTM COULD
MAKE IT INTO THE CITY TERMINALS. EXPECTING JUST SHRA OVER LI/CT
SITES. PSBL PCPN AGAIN THIS COMING NIGHT BUT TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE.
CIGS AND VIS WILL GO UP AND DOWN THE REST OF TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING GENERALLY IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. FOR THE
DAY...CURRENTLY THINKING MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE HEAVIER
PCPN MAY BRING IN IFR OR LOWER.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
1-2 HOURS MORE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF TSTMS TODAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NGT-FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS.
IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND THROUGH 6 AM
THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY.
PERSISTENT S SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT
SCA LEVELS.
A GRADUALLY VEERING SLY FLOW TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD
ALLOW MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO FALL BELOW 5 FT BY
THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
NJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...AND PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES...SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY APPROACH AND EXCEED BANKFULL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
511 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MAINE...SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...WILL LIFT NNEWD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESS WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES SEEN IN THE 00Z
SOUNDING AND IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NJ
OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA.
THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE
AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WILL MEAN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THESE
AREAS WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE AREA AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND SOME WEAK LIFTING WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE DRYING PROFILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW
BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP. 85H TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME WILL AVERAGE 16 TO 18 DEG C. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
FRI INTO SAT AS SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION THOUGH STILL APPEARS TO
BE SCT IN NATURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER OR DYNAMICS TO
RELY ON.
HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.
ONE AREA OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...EXPECT
TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO THE
EVENING.
MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MID DAY...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINS.
COULD SEE PCPN MOVE IN 1-2 HOURS SOONER. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER
MENTION ONCE A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING OF OCCURRENCE.
CIGS AND VIS WILL GO UP AND DOWN THE REST OF TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING GENERALLY IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. FOR THE
DAY...CURRENTLY THINKING MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE HEAVIER
PCPN MAY BRING IN IFR OR LOWER.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NGT-FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS.
IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND THROUGH 6 AM
THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY.
PERSISTENT S SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT
SCA LEVELS.
A GRADUALLY VEERING SLY FLOW TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD
ALLOW MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO FALL BELOW 5 FT BY
THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
NJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...AND PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES...SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY APPROACH AND EXCEED BANKFULL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
914 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES TO APPROACH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE. HEAVIEST RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FELL CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AVOIDED
MOST AREAS THAT WERE HARD HIT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HRRR AND
COSPA DID WELL WITH WHAT TRANSPIRED THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
OTHER MODELS DID NOT AND LOOKING` AT THEIR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
SAW WHY, TOO STABLE EAST. REGARDLESS THE FORMER TWO ARE ARRIVING
AT SIMILAR OVERNIGHT SOLUTIONS OF NOT SHOWING MUCH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. WE ARE SEEING SOME DEBRIS PCPN STILL UPSTREAM, SO
WE WILL KEEP IN A CHC. ALL THE MODELS DO KEEP THE WESTERN EDGE OF
OUR CWA NEAR THE LLJ, SO WHILE TONIGHT WE WILL BE ON THE
CONVERGENT SIDE, PREFER SOME WIGGLE ROOM WEST FOR NOW AND HAVE
HIEST POPS THERE. THE FCST 250MB JET CONTINUES TO EDGE WWD AS THE
500MB RIDGE RETROGRADES.
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS WERE BASED ON THE COOLING FROM THE EVENING PCPN,
BUT WITH HIGH DEW POINTS ITS TOUGH FOR THEM TO GO DOWN MUCH
FURTHER. THERE IS PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AROUND, SO FOR THIS
UPDATE DID NOT ADD MUCH PATCHY FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BUILDING THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHOWERS
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MORNING...AND THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...A TREND TO LOWER POPS WILL
COMMENCE. ANY MORNING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MID-MORNING
HOURS AND THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM EARLIER THINKING WITH REGARDS TO
THE LONGER TERM PART OF THE FCST. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
ATLANTIC THAT HAS PUMPED THE WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE
PAST WEEK WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST. WE WILL KEEP THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...SO EXCEPT FOR SCT
AFTERNOON TSTMS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE. POPS IN THE
CURRENT FCST WERE NOT CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM EARLIER FCST...SINCE
THEY LOOKED GOOD WITH RESPECT TO THE MORE RECENT 12Z MODEL RUNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM THU RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
MODERATE TO HIGH...SO WE MAY EVENTUALLY REACH LEVELS WHERE HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BECOME NECESSARY...PROBABLY THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE
SOME MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW CONCERNING THE HEAT.
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE...FAVORING THE WEST/NORTHWEST ZONES. PCPN IN THOSE AREAS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE...WHILE POPS FURTHER SOUTH/EAST WILL
EITHER BE DRY OR SLGT CHC.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 00Z TAFS WE WERE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE OVERNIGHT,
HOPEFULLY NOT TOO MUCH. THIS HAS BEEN BASED ON THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS IN WHICH THE TROPICAL AIR MASS HAS NOT LED TO AS MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WE THOUGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING, WE WILL CARRY SOME DEBRIS SHOWERS
WITH OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
OVERNIGHT WHILE WE ARE NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. WE DID BRING SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AS OCCURRED AND FORMED LAST NIGHT TOWARD MORNING.
ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR,
THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND THE TERMINAL IMPACT (IF AT
ALL) BRIEFER. SO FOR NOW THE TAFS DO NOT HAVE MENTION, BUT PLEASE
LOOK FOR FURTHER REFINEMENTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE LONGER TERM WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORT PERIODS OF SUB-SVR
DURING THE TSTMS. PATCHY A.M. FOG MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS TOO.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY 009 HAVE NOW DROPPED BELOW 5 FEET. THE SCA HAS
THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED SOUTH OF CAPE MAY...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT
ALONG THE NJ COAST WHERE SEAS ARE STILL 5 FEET PLUS. ALTHOUGH THE
SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10Z WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD
IT CAN BE DROPPED EARLIER THAN THAT. S TO SWLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. ONCE THE SEAS DROP BELOW 5 FEET TONIGHT...NO
FLAGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE
INTO THE LONG TERM. SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS/SEAS.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
OUR IN HOUSE PROGRAM IS GIVING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE NJ COAST FOR WEDNESDAY. DELAWARE WAS LOW. INSTEAD OF
SEPARATING THEM FOR NOW, WE WILL CARRY A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL
AREAS FOR NOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
818 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES TO APPROACH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE HRRR (AND LAST COSPA WE LOOKED AT) CONTINUES TO HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION. ITS ABOUT AN HOUR SLOW AND WE HAVE
USED THE SUBSEQUENT HOUR FOR THIS UPDATE. ITS EMPHASIS ON SERN CWA
IS HOLDING. RADAR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING FASTER FORWARD MOTION
THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS PLUS THE CURRENT SERN EMPHASIS IN
GENERAL IS PASSING OVER LOCALES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN AS HARD HIT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. SO IN THE NEAR TERM WE HAVE UPPED THE POPS SE
AND LOWERED THEM NW BEFORE SEGUEING TOWARD THE LATTER AREA LATER
THIS EVENING.
THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST...COURTESY OF A STAGNANT MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. POP-UP SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A VORT MAX MOVES NORTH
FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES STILL OVER 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WHEREVER
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THEN AFTER THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES OUT...VERY HUMID
AIR COUPLED WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED TO POPULATE TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BUILDING THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHOWERS
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MORNING...AND THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...A TREND TO LOWER POPS WILL
COMMENCE. ANY MORNING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MID-MORNING
HOURS AND THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM EARLIER THINKING WITH REGARDS TO
THE LONGER TERM PART OF THE FCST. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
ATLANTIC THAT HAS PUMPED THE WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE
PAST WEEK WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST. WE WILL KEEP THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...SO EXCEPT FOR SCT
AFTERNOON TSTMS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE. POPS IN THE
CURRENT FCST WERE NOT CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM EARLIER FCST...SINCE
THEY LOOKED GOOD WITH RESPECT TO THE MORE RECENT 12Z MODEL RUNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM THU RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
MODERATE TO HIGH...SO WE MAY EVENTUALLY REACH LEVELS WHERE HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BECOME NECESSARY...PROBABLY THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE
SOME MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW CONCERNING THE HEAT.
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE...FAVORING THE WEST/NORTHWEST ZONES. PCPN IN THOSE AREAS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE...WHILE POPS FURTHER SOUTH/EAST WILL
EITHER BE DRY OR SLGT CHC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 00Z TAFS WE WERE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE OVERNIGHT,
HOPEFULLY NOT TOO MUCH. THIS HAS BEEN BASED ON THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS IN WHICH THE TROPICAL AIR MASS HAS NOT LED TO AS MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WE THOUGHT.
FOR THIS EVENING, OTHER THAN KMIV AND KACY THE TSTM POTENTIAL WE
BELIEVE IS DONE FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS AND WE CARRIED SOME DEBRIS
SHOWERS WITH OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
OVERNIGHT WHILE WE ARE NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. WE DID BRING SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AS OCCURRED AND FORMED LAST NIGHT TOWARD MORNING.
ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR,
THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND THE TERMINAL IMPACT (IF AT
ALL) BRIEFER. SO FOR NOW THE TAFS DO NOT HAVE MENTION, BUT PLEASE
LOOK FOR FURTHER REFINEMENTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE LONGER TERM WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORT PERIODS OF SUB-SVR
DURING THE TSTMS. PATCHY A.M. FOG MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS TOO.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY 009 HAVE NOW DROPPED BELOW 5 FEET. THE SCA HAS
THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED SOUTH OF CAPE MAY...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT
ALONG THE NJ COAST WHERE SEAS ARE STILL 5 FEET PLUS. ALTHOUGH THE
SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10Z WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD
IT CAN BE DROPPED EARLIER THAN THAT. S TO SWLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. ONCE THE SEAS DROP BELOW 5 FEET TONIGHT...NO
FLAGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE
INTO THE LONG TERM. SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS/SEAS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ESTF UPDATE FOLLOWING HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING.
18Z MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON HEAVIER PCPN BEFORE MORNING. THERE
HAS BEEN A PATTERN TO QUICK STARTS, SO WANT TO SEE HOW THE FCST
LLVL JET VERIFIES OFF THE 00Z SOUNDINGS. REGARDLESS WHAT DOES NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 10Z IS LIKELY TO THEN OCCUR AFTER 10Z.
FFA CONTD. PWAT AXIS CONTS 2+ ALONG THE I 95 CORRIDOR AND VAPOR
HAS CONNECTION TO NEAR FLORIDA.
THE FOCUS IS ON SOME SORT OF IMPULSE OR TWO RIDING NWD ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND CAUSING ONE OR TWO MORE PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN.
THERE PROBABLY WONT BE MUCH THUNDER WITH IT.
THINKING MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP IN OUR AREA AFTER 04Z
AS LOW LVL WINDS ORGANIZE A NEW SPEED MAX ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST.
THAT WOULD PROBABLY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO YIELD HEAVY QPF.
HOURLY RFALLS EARLY TUESDAY 1 TO 2 INCHES WHERE IT RAINS HARD THE
ENTIRE HOUR. TRAVEL DELAYS AND TRAFFIC DETOURS FM LANE AND ROAD
CLOSURES EXPECTED BUT THE TIMING AND WHERE IS THE ISSUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY...BELIEVE WE HAVE FF POTENTIAL BUT WE`RE NOT SURE IF ITS
ALL CONFINED TO THE MORNING OR IF THERE IS LATE AFTN REDEVELOPMENT
FURTHER WEST WHERE IT HEATS UP? MLCAPE OF 1000J TUE AFTN.
SOME DRYING IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTN BUT MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
WE SHOULD HAVE A MORNING BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR I95...THE AFTN
MAY BE MORE RELATED TO HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTION
TENDING TO BE RESTRICTED TO EASTERN PA.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS WERE 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/1 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 PATTERN REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING. THIS ALLOWS
THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST TO RETROGRESS BACK ACROSS THE
ERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER THEN DRIER PATTERN ACROSS OUR
REGION.
TUE NIGHT THRU FRI...WE REMAIN IN THE DEEPER SRLY FLOW WITH SEVERAL
S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE DAILY CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIER RAINS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S (NORTH) AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (SOUTH). IT WILL
REMAIN HUMID AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN 70S WITH SOME
MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH.
FRI NIGHT THRU MONDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD (SOUTH OF OUR AREA)...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
MORE WRLY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP FLOW OF HIGHER PW AIR TO BE
CUT OFF FOR OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS BOTH SAT AND SUN AS THE GFS/EC SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THRU THE REGION. MOSTLY WENT WITH HPC TEMPS/POPS FOR THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 90S IN MANY AREAS AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT LATE WITH
A FEW BANDS OF IFR VSBY IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
SREF HAS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON LOW CIGS VCNTY KABE AND KRDG.
TUESDAY...AFTER EARLY MORNING IFR OR MVFR CIGS LIFT...VFR CIGS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDS IN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
GENERALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS, WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR BUT LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING EARLY MORNING FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOONS EARLY EVENING.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA FOR NEAR 5 SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS
PERSISTENT S TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN BIASED HIGH.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FOR DE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
SCA FLAG EXTENDED INTO TUE NIGHT WITH MARGINAL 5FT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SCA WITH 3 TO 4
FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TUE EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL PLAIN.
GIVEN THE RECORD RAINS OF JUNE IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND THE CONTD
PWAT AXIS OF 2+ INCHES ALONG I95 THROUGH AT LEAST TUE... AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED AND FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, THIS COULD BE A LOCALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITH CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND LOW
LYING VULNERABLE AREAS. PLAN FOR TRAVEL DELAYS AND DETOURS IF AND
WHEN FLOODING FLOODING REDEVELOPS IN PART OF THE AREA.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME QUESTION ON THE MAIN LOCATION OF THE MORE
FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT IT APPEARS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
ESPECIALLY POINTS TO THE WEST ARE OF MORE CONCERN.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LEAD TO FLOODING AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED
FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING CORES, COMBINED WITH MANY AREAS OF
RATHER LOW 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FCST TODAY FOR THE NJ AND
DE BEACHES.
A MDT RISK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THEREAFTER... LOW OR MDT WED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER A
SECONDARY 15 SECOND SWELL APPEARS IN OUR WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD RAINFALLS IN JUNE IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY.
CLM`S FOR JUNE ARE POSTED BUT NO TIME TO APPEND ANY RECORD
REFERENCE DATA.
DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS FOR JULY 1 ARE BELOW.
ACY 1.26 1922
PHL 1.04 1877
ILG 1.08 2009
ABE 1.12 1960 NEW RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED TODAY
TTN 1.75 2005
GED 1.80 1996
RDG 1.18 1922
MPO 1.76 1976
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT MON JUL 01 2013
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH TODAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
NATION IS UNDER THE TROUGHING PORTION OF THIS PATTERN PROVIDING A
SETUP FOR THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA TODAY. TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
MS VALLEY AND EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS AXIS IS SUPPLYING OUR
REGION WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW VALUES OVER
2"). OUR POSITION TO THE EAST OF THIS UNUSUALLY DEEP SUMMER TROUGH
ALSO IS PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING FOR
LIFT AND WITHIN THE DIVERGENT RRQ OF UPPER JET ENERGY ALIGNED DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. KEEPING CONVECTION FROM FIRING THIS TIME OF
YEAR IN FLORIDA IS HARD ENOUGH WITHOUT ADDING IN THE UNSEASONABLE
SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...A WET FORECAST
INCLUDING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN DURING THE PREVIOUS 24
HOURS. OUR REGION CONTINUES TO RESIDE WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE FL STRAITS...AND A
SURFACE REFLECTION TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND ROLLING ASHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. GOTTA
GIVE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE SUITE SOME CREDIT AS MOST
MEMBERS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A QPF MAXIMUM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THIS VERY AREA. THIS BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY AT LEAST
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING THE PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY...
WHAT ELSE IS THERE TO SAY. ANOTHER WET DAY IN STORE WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORM EXPECTED TO KEEP DEVELOPING INLAND OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST SHOULD SPREAD THE BETTER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SEEN DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD
UP THE COAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF OTHER FACTORS
INCLUDING THE FLOW REGIME...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING WITH OR WITHOUT THE EVENTUAL INFLUENCE
OF THIS FEATURE. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS AND SOME LOCALLY HEFTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN AVERAGE 1-2" OF RAINFALL IS A GOOD BET
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY TO SEE MORE. ADDING
TO SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS ALREADY EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS
OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN TODAY BY CLOUDS AND THE
EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE AND HAVE KEPT ALL AREAS IN THE 80S.
OBVIOUSLY NOT GOING TO BE THE GREATEST OF BEACH DAYS...BUT FOR THOSE
THAT DO VENTURE INTO THE WATER...AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK
CONTINUES DUE TO THE CHOPPY BREAKING SURF AND ONSHORE FLOW. UNUSUAL
FOR SUMMER BUT JUST LIKE SUNDAY...WE ACTUALLY HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TODAY. WITH THIS SUBTLE SHEAR...A FEW ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST...AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR 2 INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INLAND
THREAT WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IF WE CAN GET ANY SUNNY BREAKS AND
ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL CAPE PROFILES.
TONIGHT...
FINALLY BY TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL LOSE MOST OF THE UPPER
JET INFLUENCE AND ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE TO
THE S/SE WITH TIME. WON`T HELP THE COASTAL ZONES MUCH...BUT MAY HELP
TO DECREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER OUR INLAND COUNTIES. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
EASTERN GULF ACTIVE AND ALONG THE COAST THE CHANCE FOR CONTINUED
SCT-NMRS SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
THESE DAYS WILL BEGIN A SLOW TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND MORE TOWARD A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME...ANY STRONG SUPPRESSION
FROM THE RIDGE IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE
WILL NOT SHOW AN SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE UNTIL AROUND THURSDAY EITHER.
THEREFORE...NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL AGAIN HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS ORGANIZED OR TEMPORALLY LONG AS
TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS SHOW LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...BUT OPTIMISTIC THAT THE TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL
BE EVEN LESS STILL...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BEHAVING MORE TYPICAL
OF JULY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS A LIGHT AT THE END OF THIS TUNNEL LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR MORE SUN AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
THE PATTERN TO ONE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF JULY FOR THE LATER PORTION
OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
THURSDAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY...WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SANDWICHING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER GULF
WATERS WEST OF THE CWA. THESE FEATURES SLOWLY WORK WESTWARD WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE FORMING OVER THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST TO THE SE U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. DRIER AIR WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE
WEEK...INTO THE LOWER SCATTERED RANGE. THE EAST AND SE FLOW WILL
KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THE BEST ODDS OF STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH THE
EAST AND SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA UNDER BKN MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD...ACROSS/NEAR THE TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY BUT WITH SCT TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
PERSISTENT MODERATE SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
INTO TUESDAY PRODUCING CHOPPY ELEVATED SEAS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH AND NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND
ABNORMALLY HIGH RAIN COVERAGE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 77 90 77 / 90 70 70 50
FMY 86 75 91 75 / 90 50 70 30
GIF 88 73 90 74 / 80 40 70 30
SRQ 87 78 91 77 / 90 70 70 50
BKV 87 73 90 72 / 90 70 70 30
SPG 85 78 90 78 / 90 70 70 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CHARLOTTE-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
AVIATION/LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
133 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD THE FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 115 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
UPDATE...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE PROGGING A WEAKER LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS
NW GA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT FURTHER
WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AS IT GETS AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
IN ADDITION...DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND A FEW OF THEM COULD BE STRONG. ISOLATED SEVERE
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z MODIFIED SOUNDING DID
SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF CAPE.
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE
CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS
ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER
THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH
AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING
OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE CONTENT.
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO
SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A
LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DEESE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS
CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA
IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING
ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER
THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF
INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF
2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD
VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS
WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY
REALISTIC.
01
HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS.
DEESE
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DYNAMICALLY LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION MOVING TOWARDS THE METRO
AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MOVED THE TEMPO GROUP UP FOR THUNDER
FROM 19 TO 21Z. WINDS ALSO AN ISSUE. LIMITED MIXING THIS MORNING
HAS KEPT THE WINDS A LITTEL EAST OF SOUTH THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE SW. DO THINK AFTER THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH WINDS WILL BE FORCED BACK TO SW. A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST
IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUMMER WILL BRING IN AN EXTREMLY
MOIST AIRMASS TO THE STATE THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL GRAIDENT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND LEAD TO STRONG H85 MOIST TRANSPORT. THIS TRANSPORT
WILL START ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STATEWIDE DURING THIS PERIOD. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORMS AND LEAD TO SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES. PWAT VALUES IN ATLANTA ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOVE 2
INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES
ARE AT OR JUST BELOW THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JULY. THE HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...WHERE
RECENT RAINFALL HAS PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS...SEE THE LATEST
/ATLFFAFFC FOR MORE INFORMATION.
AGIBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 80 70
ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 60 40 50 50
BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 65 / 60 50 70 60
CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 80 40 50 50
COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 60 40 40 40
GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 50 70 60
MACON 87 70 86 70 / 50 40 50 60
ROME 87 66 85 69 / 80 40 50 50
PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 60 40 50 50
VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 80 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...CLARKE...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
GREENE...HANCOCK...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...HALL...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
HYDROLOGY...AGIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
115 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
UPDATE...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE PROGGING A WEAKER LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS
NW GA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT FURTHER
WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AS IT GETS AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
IN ADDITION...DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND A FEW OF THEM COULD BE STRONG. ISOLATED SEVERE
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z MODIFIED SOUNDING DID
SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF CAPE.
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE
CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS
ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER
THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH
AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING
OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE CONTENT.
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO
SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A
LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DEESE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS
CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA
IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING
ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER
THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF
INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF
2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD
VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS
WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY
REALISTIC.
01
HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DYNAMICALLY LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION MOVING TOWARDS THE METRO
AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MOVED THE TEMPO GROUP UP FOR THUNDER
FROM 19 TO 21Z. WINDS ALSO AN ISSUE. LIMITED MIXING THIS MORNING
HAS KEPT THE WINDS A LITTEL EAST OF SOUTH THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE SW. DO THINK AFTER THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH WINDS WILL BE FORCED BACK TO SW. A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST
IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 80 70
ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 60 40 50 50
BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 65 / 60 50 70 60
CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 80 40 50 50
COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 60 40 40 40
GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 50 70 60
MACON 87 70 86 70 / 50 40 50 60
ROME 87 66 85 69 / 80 40 50 50
PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 60 40 50 50
VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 80 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1008 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE PROGGING A WEAKER LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS
NW GA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT FURTHER
WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AS IT GETS AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
IN ADDITION...DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND A FEW OF THEM COULD BE STRONG. ISOLATED SEVERE
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z MODIFIED SOUNDING DID
SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF CAPE.
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE
CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS
ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER
THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH
AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING
OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE CONTENT.
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO
SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A
LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DEESE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS
CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA
IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING
ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER
THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF
INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF
2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD
VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS
WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY
REALISTIC.
01
HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS.
DEESE
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CIGS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO ALL TERMINALS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. SLOW CLEARING THEREAFTER AND KEEP MVFR IN
FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING...ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO NEXT ROUND OF TSRA. BEST LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY TO THE
WEST BUT BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WILL GO WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR AHN AND MCN WITH A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO
INCLUSION LATER TODAY FOR ATL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG DISSIPATION TIMING AND TSRA CHANCES.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 60 50
ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 50 30 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 64 / 60 50 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 50 30 40 50
COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 50 20 30 40
GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 40 50 50
MACON 87 70 86 72 / 50 30 50 40
ROME 87 66 85 68 / 50 30 40 40
PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 50 30 40 40
VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 60 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
744 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE
CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS
ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER
THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH
AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING
OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE CONTENT.
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO
SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A
LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DEESE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS
CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA
IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING
ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER
THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF
INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF
2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD
VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS
WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY
REALISTIC.
01
HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CIGS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO ALL TERMINALS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. SLOW CLEARING THEREAFTER AND KEEP MVFR IN
FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING...ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO NEXT ROUND OF TSRA. BEST LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY TO THE
WEST BUT BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WILL GO WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR AHN AND MCN WITH A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO
INCLUSION LATER TODAY FOR ATL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG DISSIPATION TIMING AND TSRA CHANCES.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 60 50
ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 50 30 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 64 / 60 50 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 50 30 40 50
COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 50 20 30 40
GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 40 50 50
MACON 87 70 86 72 / 50 30 50 40
ROME 87 66 85 68 / 50 30 40 40
PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 50 30 40 40
VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 60 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE
CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS
ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER
THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH
AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING
OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE CONTENT.
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO
SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A
LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS
CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA
IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING
ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER
THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF
INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF
2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD
VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS
WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY
REALISTIC.
01
&&
.HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
STORMS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND SHOULD
REMAIN THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...WILL SEE LOW CIGS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO MCN AND
AHN...DEVELOP NW TO AFFECT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE ATL TERMINALS
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO NEXT ROUND OF TSRA. BEST LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY TO THE
WEST BUT BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WILL GO WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR AHN AND MCN WITH A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO
INCLUSION LATER TODAY FOR ATL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG DEVELOPMENT AND TSRA CHANCES.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 60 50
ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 50 30 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 64 / 60 50 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 50 30 40 50
COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 50 20 30 40
GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 40 50 50
MACON 87 70 86 72 / 50 30 50 40
ROME 87 66 85 68 / 50 30 40 40
PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 50 30 40 40
VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 60 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
156 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT INLAND AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE... A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PRODUCE TIMES
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND
EXPAND INTO THE REGION AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINTAINED THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH OF I-16.
THE KCHS RAOB DEPICTED A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS FEATURING
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT N/NE INTO
THIS ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH/EAST
EXPANSION OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...SOME
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT
BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL FOCUS INLAND WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN GENERAL...UPDATED POPS ARE
GRADUATED FROM LIKELY/CATEGORICAL SOUTH/WEST TO CHANCE/LIKELY
NORTH/EAST.
GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING...LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL HAVE DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIME FOR SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.
WIDESPREAD WET CONDITIONS LOOK APPARENT ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SFC LOW
REMAINS POSITIONED THE DEEP SOUTH AND LIKELY AMPLIFIES MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE REGION WHILE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXPANDS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FORCES THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN PINNED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AS PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 2.5 INCHES...FAVORABLE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OCCURS WITH AN H25 JET...AND SEVERAL H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD
BE ON MONDAY WHEN ENHANCED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A 30-35 KT H85 JET WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE AS THE WEAK SFC LOW TO OUR WEST RESULTS IN FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 OVER
ALL LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPERIENCED AND ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL MAINTAIN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRECISE LOCATION ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 70 OVER MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN THE INCREASING TREND
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE THE LARGE TROUGH TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST BEGINS
TO MAKE A NORTHERN RETREAT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST PRECIP
ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER FAR INLAND LOCATIONS...THUS HAVE KEEP 60-70
POPS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
NEAR 50 POPS ALONG THE COAST.
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GIVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SATURATED PROFILES...HOWEVER CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED EVENT WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG SFC HEATING DUE TO THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...HIGHEST INLAND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD INDICATING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING WEST OF THE AREA THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST EACH
MORNING TRANSITIONING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY GETTING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...BUT TIMING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS REMAINS DIFFICULT AS
CONVECTION COULD OCCUR AT NEARLY ANYTIME. THE FORECAST AT BOTH
TERMINALS HAS EITHER VICINITY SHOWERS OR PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WITH THE LATTER
DURING TIMES WHEN GUIDANCE INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM ABOUT 17-21Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
THIS APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE GREATEST WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION AT
THE TERMINALS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOWER CEILINGS
RESULTING IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING AT BOTH
KCHS AND KSAV OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS JUSTIFY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL AREAS
OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN ELEVATED IN
THIS AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JETTING INTENSIFIES.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER LOCAL WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS POSITIONED INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ALL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS IN MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NEARSHORE SC WATERS AND OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK NEAR
20-25 KTS WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT DURING THE ADVISORY EVENT
AS A 30-35 KT LOW LVL JET ADVANCES NORTH OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO MID WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
RIP CURRENTS...AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG SC BEACHES DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS NEAR
15-20 MPH AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT. THUS THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST...THUS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW
CATEGORY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL REMAIN AN IMPRESSIVE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE REGION REMAINS ANCHORED UNDERNEATH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTING NORTH BETWEEN BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
PLETHORA OF UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH WILL SUPPORT
HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MUCH OF THE REGION IS RUNNING WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ROUGHLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 30/845 PM EDT...2.33 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN AT THE
CHARLESTON AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR
THE DATE. WE WILL TRANSMIT A RECORD EVENT REPORT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHEN DAILY RAINFALL FOR JUNE 30 IS FINALIZED
RECORD RAINFALL TOTALS FOR 30 JUNE...
PREVIOUS CHARLESTON AIRPORT... 1.75 INCHES - 1987
WATERFRONT PARK...... 2.12 INCHES - 1944
SAVANNAH AIRPORT..... 3.06 INCHES - 1983
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ087-088-099>101.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR/JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...DPB/SPR
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE...BUT HAVE NOT DISAPPEARED. POP FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 20 PERCENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 859 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATED EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REVISE EVENING POP GRIDS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL LOOK FOR MOST PRECIP TO DIE OUT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND THE 18Z NAM BOTH SHOWED SOME SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT AROUND DAWN. HAVE PLACED THE 00Z-12Z POP IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CAPPING IS IN PLACE
ACCORDING TO LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME RISING ABOVE THIS WARM LAYER
/AROUND 12K FEET/ AND AS A RESULT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SAW SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN
SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER THE PREVIOUS HOURS...YET LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...JUST WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ONE
SHOWER HAS BEEN ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE WARM LAYER AND CONTINUE TO
GROW...PRODUCING SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NWS OFFICE. THE
QUESTION THEN IS...AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...HOW MUCH WILL THIS WARM LAYER BE ERODED AND HOW MANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH AND
MODIFYING THE SOUNDING. IF THIS IS ABLE TO OCCUR...SOME EVENING TSRA
COULD TAP INTO THE BEST INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NOT ONLY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT HIGH WINDS
AND HAIL AS WELL.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST WEEK...MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WILL
LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
BECOME AS WIDESPREAD OR THICK AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.
NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AT A MUCH BETTER SET UP FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LESS OF A MID LEVEL WARMING CAP IN PLACE...AND
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD...GIVING A PREFERRED
ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT AND INSTABILITY. ALSO...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST...EASTERN KY
WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
BRINGING UP A RIVER OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
AVAILABILITY OF WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A RAINY
AFTERNOON AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS AT BAY /AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
AREA/. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO PREVENT DRY
MID/UPPER LEVELS...CUTTING DOWN ON HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SOME OF
THE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL. EXPECT STORM MOTION TO REMAIN NEARLY
SOUTH TO NORTH...INCREASING DURING THE DAY IN COVERAGE AS BEST
MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER IN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO GAIN MORE INFLUENCE LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO ENTER THE AREA AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE BEST BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO MOVE OFF
THE THE EAST...BUT A SMALL BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...SO LINGERING SHOWERS EVEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE THE SOAKER PER SAY THAT IT WAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AT 50H THU MORNING WITH STRONG RIDGES
LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SANDWICHING
A SHARP TROF OVER THE ERN PLAINS. THE FLOW FROM THE SW AT 50H AND SFC
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE OHIO/TENN VALLEY.
DEW POINT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN CHECK WITH FOG NEARLY EVERY NIGHT. FOG
SHOULD BE MAINLY RESTRICTED TO THE VALLEYS AND MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE
AIRPORTS NOT ON THE RIDGE TOPS. BY FRI AFTERNOON THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE OZARKS BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND CLIMB THRU THE GREAT LAKES IN
PIECES WITH ONE PIECE FRI NIGHT. THE REMAINING LOW BECOMES CUT OF
OVER MISSOURI AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
NRN CONUS BORDER. THE CUT OFF LOW FINALLY GETS PICKED UP IN THE FAST
ZONAL FLOW BY TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN
MTNS. AT THE SFC THE SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WITH QUIETER PERIODS
OVERNIGHT. THIS DIRTY RIDGE AT THE SFC WILL KEEP ERN KY IN A WET
PATTERN BUT THE AIRBORNE WATER VAPOR WILL ALSO ABSORB MUCH OF THE DAY
TIME HEATING THRU A DEEPER LAYER. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY HOLD BNDRY
LAYER HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 859 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHICH FUELED THEM. LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG WILL
THEN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...TIMING THEM AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS
POINT. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BRING IFR WHERE THEY
PASS...AND LOCALIZED IFR IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM THE VALLEY FOG.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND FOG...MAINLY VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
859 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATED EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REVISE EVENING POP GRIDS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL LOOK FOR MOST PRECIP TO DIE OUT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND THE 18Z NAM BOTH SHOWED SOME SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT AROUND DAWN. HAVE PLACED THE 00Z-12Z POP IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CAPPING IS IN PLACE
ACCORDING TO LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME RISING ABOVE THIS WARM LAYER
/AROUND 12K FEET/ AND AS A RESULT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SAW SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN
SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER THE PREVIOUS HOURS...YET LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...JUST WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ONE
SHOWER HAS BEEN ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE WARM LAYER AND CONTINUE TO
GROW...PRODUCING SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NWS OFFICE. THE
QUESTION THEN IS...AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...HOW MUCH WILL THIS WARM LAYER BE ERODED AND HOW MANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH AND
MODIFYING THE SOUNDING. IF THIS IS ABLE TO OCCUR...SOME EVENING TSRA
COULD TAP INTO THE BEST INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NOT ONLY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT HIGH WINDS
AND HAIL AS WELL.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST WEEK...MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WILL
LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
BECOME AS WIDESPREAD OR THICK AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.
NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AT A MUCH BETTER SET UP FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LESS OF A MID LEVEL WARMING CAP IN PLACE...AND
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD...GIVING A PREFERRED
ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT AND INSTABILITY. ALSO...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST...EASTERN KY
WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
BRINGING UP A RIVER OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
AVAILABILITY OF WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A RAINY
AFTERNOON AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS AT BAY /AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
AREA/. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO PREVENT DRY
MID/UPPER LEVELS...CUTTING DOWN ON HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SOME OF
THE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL. EXPECT STORM MOTION TO REMAIN NEARLY
SOUTH TO NORTH...INCREASING DURING THE DAY IN COVERAGE AS BEST
MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER IN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO GAIN MORE INFLUENCE LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO ENTER THE AREA AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE BEST BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO MOVE OFF
THE THE EAST...BUT A SMALL BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...SO LINGERING SHOWERS EVEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE THE SOAKER PER SAY THAT IT WAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AT 50H THU MORNING WITH STRONG RIDGES
LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SANDWICHING
A SHARP TROF OVER THE ERN PLAINS. THE FLOW FROM THE SW AT 50H AND SFC
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE OHIO/TENN VALLEY.
DEW POINT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN CHECK WITH FOG NEARLY EVERY NIGHT. FOG
SHOULD BE MAINLY RESTRICTED TO THE VALLEYS AND MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE
AIRPORTS NOT ON THE RIDGE TOPS. BY FRI AFTERNOON THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE OZARKS BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND CLIMB THRU THE GREAT LAKES IN
PIECES WITH ONE PIECE FRI NIGHT. THE REMAINING LOW BECOMES CUT OF
OVER MISSOURI AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
NRN CONUS BORDER. THE CUT OFF LOW FINALLY GETS PICKED UP IN THE FAST
ZONAL FLOW BY TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN
MTNS. AT THE SFC THE SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WITH QUIETER PERIODS
OVERNIGHT. THIS DIRTY RIDGE AT THE SFC WILL KEEP ERN KY IN A WET
PATTERN BUT THE AIRBORNE WATER VAPOR WILL ALSO ABSORB MUCH OF THE DAY
TIME HEATING THRU A DEEPER LAYER. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY HOLD BNDRY
LAYER HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 859 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHICH FUELED THEM. LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG WILL
THEN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...TIMING THEM AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS
POINT. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BRING IFR WHERE THEY
PASS...AND LOCALIZED IFR IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM THE VALLEY FOG.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND FOG...MAINLY VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
122 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
AS LOW ROTATES OFF TO OUR WEST...EASTERN KY HAS FOUND ITSELF IN A DRY
SLOT WITH CONVECTION FORMING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND POINTS
WESTWARD. LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE
TRYING TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
STARTING TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS ALSO
POINTING AT SOME CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER OUR FAR EAST HERE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MERGE IN FROM THE EAST.
ALL THINGS BEING ACCOUNTED FOR...NOT FEELING VERY CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WHILE DRY SLOT IS IN PLACE. BACKED OFF POPS SOME THROUGH
18Z...AT WHICH TIME BEST CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN KICKING IN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOOK LIKE THE CONVECTION
WILL MOST LIKELY GET GOING AFTER NOON TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW WHICH
INITIALLY WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN EVENTUALLY
DRIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY
NEAR THE AREA. THE PROBLEM WITH DECIPHERING THE MODELS IS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THE UPPER LOWS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE BITS OF ENERGY
MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW ARE QUITE DIFFERENT AND AS A
RESULT THE TIMING OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD IS A
DIFFICULT TASK WITH THE MODELS BEING ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT WE
ARE UNDER AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT JUST NEEDS A LITTLE
ENCOURAGEMENT TO KICK OFF A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM. THE NAM SEEMED
TO HAVE INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE PRECIPITATION THAN THE
OTHER MODELS SO TENDED TO NUDGE THINGS A LITTLE TOWARD THE NAM FOR
THE FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART STAY THE GARDEN
VARIETY TYPE...HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. FOR TEMPERATURES
STAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN CONSENSUS MOS DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDINESS
THAT IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA. MOISTURE
RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL FINALLY
RELAX AS PROGS INDICATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE RATHER HIGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY
AS A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE BACKS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD...WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE STORMS REPEAT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE
PERIOD RATHER MILD BUT WILL MODERATE WELL INTO THE 80S DURING THE
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL COME WITH A
VERY MUGGY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE SO THE HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY BE
PUSHING 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN POPPING UP ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME NUMEROUS IN NATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY AS
CELLS ARE STILL DEVELOPING...THERE IS NO EXACT TIMING ON WHEN OR EVEN
IF A PARTICULAR CELL WILL HIT A TAF SITE DIRECTLY. AS A RESULT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS MENTION OF VCTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE UPDATES AS NEEDED FOR IMPENDING STORMS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WIND GUSTS MAY BE FELT AT TAF SITES EVEN IF
STORM DOES NOT PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. BY OVERNIGHT...DAYTIME HEATING
AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE...LEAVING BEHIND A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
VALLEYS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TAF SITES IF IT BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH.
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KSME AND POTENTIALLY KLOZ AS WELL.
AS FOG SCATTERS OUT IN THE MORNING...A SIMILAR STORY OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1204 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
AS LOW ROTATES OFF TO OUR WEST...EASTERN KY HAS FOUND ITSELF IN A DRY
SLOT WITH CONVECTION FORMING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND POINTS
WESTWARD. LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE
TRYING TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
STARTING TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS ALSO
POINTING AT SOME CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER OUR FAR EAST HERE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MERGE IN FROM THE EAST.
ALL THINGS BEING ACCOUNTED FOR...NOT FEELING VERY CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WHILE DRY SLOT IS IN PLACE. BACKED OFF POPS SOME THROUGH
18Z...AT WHICH TIME BEST CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN KICKING IN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOOK LIKE THE CONVECTION
WILL MOST LIKELY GET GOING AFTER NOON TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW WHICH
INITIALLY WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN EVENTUALLY
DRIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY
NEAR THE AREA. THE PROBLEM WITH DECIPHERING THE MODELS IS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THE UPPER LOWS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE BITS OF ENERGY
MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW ARE QUITE DIFFERENT AND AS A
RESULT THE TIMING OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD IS A
DIFFICULT TASK WITH THE MODELS BEING ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT WE
ARE UNDER AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT JUST NEEDS A LITTLE
ENCOURAGEMENT TO KICK OFF A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM. THE NAM SEEMED
TO HAVE INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE PRECIPITATION THAN THE
OTHER MODELS SO TENDED TO NUDGE THINGS A LITTLE TOWARD THE NAM FOR
THE FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART STAY THE GARDEN
VARIETY TYPE...HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. FOR TEMPERATURES
STAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN CONSENSUS MOS DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDINESS
THAT IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA. MOISTURE
RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL FINALLY
RELAX AS PROGS INDICATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE RATHER HIGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY
AS A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE BACKS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD...WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE STORMS REPEAT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE
PERIOD RATHER MILD BUT WILL MODERATE WELL INTO THE 80S DURING THE
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL COME WITH A
VERY MUGGY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE SO THE HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY BE
PUSHING 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM. EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL GET GOING BETWEEN 16-18Z. JUST LIKE THE
LAST TWO DAYS...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRODUCING OUTFLOWS
AGAIN TODAY WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME LLWS A LONG DISTANCE FROM THE
STORMS. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD INDICATION OF WHEN THE TAF STATIONS WILL
GET THUNDER...SO JUST LEFT VCTS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
204 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE CONVECTION IS DEFINITELY TRENDING DOWN AND THERE IS
BARELY AND MORE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THERE IS AN AREA OF STRONG RETURNS OVER EAST TENN THAT IS MOVING TO
THE NORTH AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO MCCREARY AND WHITLEY
COUNTIES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM. EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
DID ANOTHER UPDATE TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PLOW
NORTH...MAINLY INTO AREAS THAT SAW MORE LIMITED CONVECTION EARLIER
TODAY. WOULD EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ONCE IT GETS
CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY WHERE BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRED
EARLIER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE RADAR TRENDS...WITH HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
WARRANTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN A SHARP CUTOFF BACK TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ANY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DOWNSTREAM...AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY
NORTHWEST. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP THE LOW TEMPERATURES A HAIR...WITH DEW
POINTS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
CONVECTION APPEARS TO DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. HAVE RE-ALIGNED THE
POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG A
LINE FROM MOREHEAD...TO IRVINE...TO WHITLEY CITY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THIS COMING IN CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT ITS CURRENT PACE...SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH OUR BORDER CLOSER TO BETWEEN 10 AND
10:30 PM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
500MB LOW MADE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN KY THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT HAS ALSO SET UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CREATING
A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR MOISTURE LIFT AND PRECIP. 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO IMPLYING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF KY
AND NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IN...OHIO...AND WV...WITH THE BEST
CONCENTRATION BEING OVER OHIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE GIVING
INDICATIONS OF A BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL
/DESPITE TSRA THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT/...WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TODAY ONCE LLVL AND MID LEVEL CAPS HAVE BROKEN.
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BASED ON THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A
STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PREDOMINATE SW TO NE
FLOW...STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MAKING THIS PATH THROUGH THE CWA
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LOW WILL STILL PLAY A ROLE IN SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS...OCCLUDED FRONT AND BEST LIFT WILL BEGIN EXITING TO THE EAST.
WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE MORE OF A RAIN
SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH SOME LINGERING TO ISOLATED TSRA STILL
POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...SOME VALLEY FOG COULD NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS. THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY TOMORROW /MONDAY/ HOWEVER...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
FURTHER SE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PULL THE
OCCLUDED FRONT SLIGHTLY BACK WESTWARD AND PLACE A BULLSEYE OF QVECTOR
CONV OVER NORTHERN KY...EASTERN IN...AND WESTERN OHIO...WITH
REASONABLE CONV EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THREE STATES. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH A BETTER POOL
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT MUCH HIGHER PROB OF CONVECTION AND
TSRA POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL KEEP WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING PEAK. AS WAS
THE CASE TODAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SPEED SHEAR IS GOOD...BUT THE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LACKING...SO EXPECT STORMS TO FOLLOW THE FLOW OF
THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND DROP DOWN/REDEVELOP OFTEN. THE CHALLENGE IS
THEN TRYING TO PINPOINT EXACT ONSET OF PRECIP AS WELL AS TRYING TO
BEST TRACK WHERE THE CELLS WILL DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS
MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED WESTWARD BY THE
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST HEADING
TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL WEAR DOWN THE
PLAIN/S TROUGH HELPING IT TO FILL WHILE LESSENING ITS EFFECT ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WHILE HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING LOCALLY AS
THE TROUGH GIVES WAY TO RIDGING...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH DEEP LEVEL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THE EXTENDED...MINOR
MID LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH LITTLE
FORECASTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...BUT LIKELY TO PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED RIDGING MAY BUILD IN
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA... BUT THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE POP HEAVY. ALL IN ALL...THE MODEL SIMILARITIES RAISE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT THE CR GRID LOAD WILL
PROVIDE...THOUGH AM WARY OF THE HIGHER POPS THIS WEEKEND.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RATHER DAMP...AND
INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN...FOR EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE
EXTENDED. THE DAILY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT STRAY ONES AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL AT NIGHT...AS
WELL. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EAST MAY PUSH IN
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WITH A RATHER CLOUDY AND DAMP ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...DID NOT ADJUST THE RIDGES AND VALLEYS MUCH FOR LOWS.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT ENOUGH...BUT PERHAPS TOO HIGH WITH
POPS DURING THE NIGHT AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND SO HAVE NUDGED THEM
DOWN. IN ADDITION...BUMPED MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE
ACTIVITY. EXPECTING LOTS OF VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. FOR THE TAF
STATIONS...EXPECTING THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT JKL AND LOZ AS THERE
HAS BEEN MORE RAINFALL OVER THAT PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z ON ACROSS THE
AREA. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD INDICATION OF WHEN THE TAF STATIONS WILL GET
THUNDER...SO JUST LEFT VCTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THOUGHT IT
WOULD BE RIDICULOUS TO BLANKET THE TAF WITH TEMPO GROUPS WITH SO
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
950 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A
BERMUDA RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED UPA PTTN CONTS TDA...WITH A DP TROF AXIS
IN THE MIDWEST AND RDGG IN THE WRN ATLC. ERN SEABRD IN MOIST SLY
FLOW...W/ VARIOUS S/WVS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSTMS. WHILE
AMS SATD /PER 12Z LWX RAOB/...PWAT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PROGGED.
NONETHELESS...ANY SHRA/STORM WL HV HIGH WATER CONTENT...AND MULT
STORMS WL HV HIGH THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GDNC. WL HOLD
ONTO FLASH FLOOD WATCH LINEUP AS IT STANDS ATTM.
RGNL RADAR DEPCITS SHRA/STORMS SRRNDG AREA...W/O MUCH ACTIVITY W/IN
CWFA ATTM /ASIDE FM THE CHSPK BAY/. HWVR...THERE/S A SLUG OF MSTR
IN S-CENTRL VA ATTM TRACKING NWD. HRRR SEEMS TO HV THIS AREA
PEGGED FAIRLY WELL...ALTHO IT MAY BE A PINCH TOO FAST. HV THIS
FEATURE AFFECTING CWFA DURING THE MIDDAY HRS.
ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES...AMS WL THEN HV THE CHC TO DSTBLZ. HV
DECENT MID-UPR LVL FLOW PRESENT...SPCLY FOR ELY JULY...YIELDING
BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 30 KT. SEE POCKET OF DRIER AIR ON WATER
VAPOR LOOP THAT CUD BE PROBLEMATIC IF IT GETS HERE. THEREFORE...WL
BE TRANSITIONING FM A WIDER AREA OF RAIN TO A HIT OR MISS TSRA
THREAT MID-LT AFTN...AND CONT THAT SCENARIO THRU THE EVNG. POPS WL
BE LWR THAN MIDDAY...BUT STILL QUITE HIGH.
PAST CPL NGTS HV EXHIBITED A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE PCPN. WL
HOLD ONTO THAT THOUGHT FOR NOW. ANY S/WVS CUD MIX UP THAT GAME
PLAN IN A HURRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER TODAY`S CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE...TUESDAY WILL BE SPREAD A BIT
MORE THINLY OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS...BUT THE OVERHEAD COLUMN WILL BE EVEN
MORE MOIST AND THEREFORE MORE STABLE. PWATS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER
THAN ON MONDAY...SO ISOLATED FLOODING WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY...AND POSSIBLY A DEGREE/TWO
LOWER.
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST AND A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED IN A
ZONE OF HIGH MOISTURE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE AND LIFT FROM SHORTWAVES TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE
MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HAVE RETROGRADED WEST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 INCHES PLUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE A
THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. MODELS
ARE STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE AXES/BANDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SET UP...AND WILL NEED TO RESOLVE THIS WITH
TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP/WEAKEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
THE BERMUDA RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE
RIBBON OF HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO THE WEST AND MOST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. BUT EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR AT LEAST DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA FOR CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE IT WILL BE WARM WITH MAXIMA AROUND
90...CWA MAY ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO SHORTWAVES THAT COULD FIRE
CONVECTION PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VRBL FLGT CONDS ACRS THE AREA...W/ NMRS MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS.
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE A LTL MORE PERSISTENT TWD MIDDAY AS A CLUSTER
OF STORMS APPROACH FM S-CENTRL VA. BYD THAT...A TSRA THREAT REMAINS
BUT IT/LL BE MORE HIT OR MISS...MAKING TIMING FOR A SPECIFIC POINT
DFCLT. LTL CHG TO OVERALL PTTN THRU TUE NGT. VSBYS MAY DROP
QUICKLY BLO IFR W/IN ANY STORM...BUT SHUDNT LAST FOR A PROLONGED
DURATION.
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE WEEK AS A BERMUDA
RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST. WITH HIGH MOISTURE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS/QUICK
VSBY REDUCTIONS CAN OCCUR IN SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...COULD ALSO DEAL WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS.
&&
.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING XPCTD UP THE CHSPK BAY TDA-TNGT. GRADIENT WINDS MAY
BE INTERRUPTED BY SHRA/TSRA...AS IS OCCURING OVER BAY ATTM. HV SCA
IN EFFECT...AND NO PLANS TO CHG THAT.
ANOTHER CONCERN WL BE THE LCL WIND THREAT W/IN ANY STORM. FOR THAT
MATTER...WUDNT BE WILLING TO RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. SMW/S
LKLY AT SOME POINT TAFTN-TNGT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE DURING THE LATE
WEEK...SO SHRA/TSRA MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANY SHRA/TSRA OF COURSE COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH POSSIBLE SCA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT GRADIENT MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES CONTINUE AT 1/2 TO 1 FT THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
SITES EXCEEDED THEIR CAUTION STAGE WITH THE OVERNIGHT TIDE CYCLE...
BUT ALL SITES REMAINED BELOW FLOOD. THE DAYTIME TIDE CYCLE IS THE
LOWER ONE...AND WITH ANOMALIES FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIC.
THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE SUBSEQUENT CYCLE TONIGHT WILL BE OF MORE CONCERN...
AND COULD BE CLOSE TO MINOR THRESHOLDS AT SENSITIVE LOCATIONS
/SUCH AS ANNAPOLIS...WITH HIGH TIDE AT 158 AM/.
AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OVERALL CHANGES
EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK...SO THIS THREAT WILL
PERSIST DAILY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-
013-014-016>018.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ042-050>057-501-
502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
538.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS/BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HTS/BPP
MARINE...HTS/BPP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A
BERMUDA RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW SAGA CONTINUES TODAY AS THIS FEATURE ROTATES ABOVE THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LOW ARE EQUALLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...LOCKING THE LOW IN
PLACE AND SOLIDIFYING A CORRIDOR OF ERN GULF AND SRN ATLC MOISTURE
TO TREK NWD UP THE ERN SEABOARD. SEVERAL LARGE SWATHS OF PRECIP ARE
SPENDING THE OVERNIGHT HRS DRIFTING UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR...SRN AND
CNTRL APLCNS AND AREAS IN BETWEEN. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS THE
RESIDUAL STRATIFORM PRECIP FROM EARLIER TSTMS. STILL SOME WEAK
CONVECTION EMBEDDED ALL ACROSS THE SRN ATLC STATES AND SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE OHIO VLY...BUT THE LARGEST BATCH OF STORMS
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SERN PA.
AN INTERESTING MID-LEVEL PICTURE SETTING UP ON THE WV SAT LOOP...W/
MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SWRN SIDE OF THE MOIST AXIS
UP THE ERN SEABOARD. THIS ADDS A SHARPER STRATIFICATION OF DRY/MOIST
AIR BEST SUITED FOR INDIVIDUAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AS OPPOSED TO THE
MORE TROPICAL LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. TODAY`S
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AND CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE THAN ON SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MORE CLOUD-FILLED TODAY -
LIMITING INSTABILITY - AS WILL THE MORE MOIST ADIABATIC COLUMN LAPSE
RATES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE DRY AIR FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
LIKELY MAKE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS TO OUR SOUTH IN TERMS OF
AIDING SEVERITY TO STORMS...THOUGH A FEW STRONG/SVR AREN`T OUT THE
QUESTION ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY.
EXPANDED THE FF WATCH TO THE BLUE RIDGE FOR N CNTRL MD AND PORTIONS
OF NRN VA. FORECASTING A CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP WHICH MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE LEE OF THE CNTRL APLCNS TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE NAM HAS SHIFTED IT MORE TOWARD THE SHEN
VLY/BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH IT ALSO HAS THE AXIS DRIFTING EWD THRU THE
EVE HRS. LOCAL GUIDANCE AND THE RECENT RUC PROGS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
BUT A BIT FURTHER EAST...SO THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED A TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE WEST - ALTHOUGH ISOLATED/LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA IF TRAINING CELLS DEVELOP.
IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LARGE AREAS OF LIGHT/MODERATE STRATIFORM RAINS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO RAINFALL TOTALS FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE IN SPOTS AND TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 70S AND A FEW U60S AFTER ONLY REACHING THE
L80S FOR HIGHS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER TODAY`S CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE...TUESDAY WILL BE SPREAD A BIT
MORE THINLY OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS...BUT THE OVERHEAD COLUMN WILL BE EVEN
MORE MOIST AND THEREFORE MORE STABLE. PWATS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER
THAN ON MONDAY...SO ISOLATED FLOODING WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY...AND POSSIBLY A DEGREE/TWO
LOWER.
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST AND A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED IN A
ZONE OF HIGH MOISTURE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE AND LIFT FROM SHORTWAVES TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE
MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HAVE RETROGRADED WEST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 INCHES PLUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE A
THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. MODELS
ARE STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE AXES/BANDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SET UP...AND WILL NEED TO RESOLVE THIS WITH
TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP/WEAKEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
THE BERMUDA RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE
RIBBON OF HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO THE WEST AND MOST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. BUT EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR AT LEAST DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA FOR CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE IT WILL BE WARM WITH MAXIMA AROUND
90...CWA MAY ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO SHORTWAVES THAT COULD FIRE
CONVECTION PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL IS MAINLY SCATTERED
LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS W/ THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY HAVING DEVELOPED
OVER SERN PA...DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW MORE BATCHES OF
THIS TYPE OF MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 6-8
HRS. THE MAIN WX CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL BE DROPPING CIG
HEIGHTS...WELL INTO MVFR AND SOME IFR RANGES FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND OVER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD WELL INTO
THE MID-LATE MRNG HRS. ONCE SOME DAYTIME MIXING HELPS TO BREAK
SOME HOLES INTO THE CLOUD LAYER...THE THICKER LOW CLOUDS WILL
DISPERSE A BIT AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE TSTM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTH AND MOVE TOWARD THE METRO AREAS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE TO LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY TUE. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/EVE AS WELL.
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE WEEK AS A BERMUDA
RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST. WITH HIGH MOISTURE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS/QUICK
VSBY REDUCTIONS CAN OCCUR IN SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...COULD ALSO DEAL WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING OF WINDS THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY
OVERNIGHT AND BASICALLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. MORE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ON THE WAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS...W/ MORE BATCHES
OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ON MON AS WELL. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT...W/ ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE DURING THE LATE
WEEK...SO SHRA/TSRA MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANY SHRA/TSRA OF COURSE COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH POSSIBLE SCA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT GRADIENT MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 3/4 TO 1 FT REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 FT ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC.
APAM2 REMAINED JUST UNDER MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLD ON LAST
HIGH TIDE AROUND 1 AM. THE NEXT TIDE CYCLE IS THE LOWER ONE...AND
WITH ANOMALIES FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIC...DO NOT EXPECT
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SUBSEQUENT CYCLE TONIGHT
WILL BE OF MORE CONCERN AND COULD BE CLOSE TO MINOR THRESHOLDS AT
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS /SUCH AS ANNAPOLIS...WITH HIGH TIDE AT 158
AM/.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-
013-014-016>018.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ042-050>057-501-
502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ530-538.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/BPP
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS/BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...GMS/BPP
MARINE...GMS/BPP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
922 AM MDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE. WEAK
SHORTWAVES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER WEAK SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO SKY COVER BASED ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. THE 01/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES
ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS A
VERY LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FAIRLY LIMITED OTHER THAN THOSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NAM
AND HRRR MODELS. THE ECMWF IS JUST A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH
THE UPPER WAVE AS IS THE GFS. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH A WAVE INTO
THE CWA YESTERDAY INTO YESTERDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...FELT
COMFORTABLE INSERTING A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR EASTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY...LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO
THE 80S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE EAST. WILL GO WITH LOWER HIGHS THERE ANYWAY GIVEN THAT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES CLOSER TO THE CWA WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SUPPRESSION OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A MUCH
GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE IN A RANGE
OF +22C TO +25C ACROSS THE CWA. THIS EASILY SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES
NEAR 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW AREAS PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM...AND
WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 90S.
WEDNESDAY PRESENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AS AIR FLOWS DOWN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE CWA. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +24C AND +30C TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 90 OR
ABOVE DURING THE AFTERNOON VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. ALSO...GIVEN WARM
850MB TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
WARMER START TO BEGIN WITH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALSO ASSIST
IN MAKING FOR A VERY HOT DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FORMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND WITH FULL VERTICAL MIXING...MID AND UPPER 90S
ARE A POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION. WILL NOT GET OVERLY CARRIED AWAY
JUST YET AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAY PUT A CEILING ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB. THE LATEST
NAM BRINGS IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH COULD SET OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRY HOWEVER FOR THE PERIOD.
INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL ASCENT WHEN NORTHEAST
MONTANA WINDS UP TO THE LEFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH SUCH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING...AS A WAVE APPROACHES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND SO INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION. IF ANYTHING ELSE...CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS COULD ALSO
RESULT IN PUTTING A CAP ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN A FEW PLACES.
THUS...EXPECT BROADLY MID 90S ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...IN AREAS
WHERE FULL VERTICAL MIXING IS REALIZED...AND CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION IS MINIMIZED...CAN EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE UPPER 90S. WHILE A FEW MODELS POINT OUT
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF UPPER 90S BEING MORE WIDESPREAD...SOME OF
THE RELIABLE MODEL BLENDS AND BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL BLENDS POINT
MORE TOWARD MID 90S. THEREFORE...LEANED TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL FURTHER FOR A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AS IT IS STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS OUT. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHANCE.
THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MONTANA
BY SATURDAY. WILL SEE FREQUENT SHORTWAVES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A COOLER AND AT TIMES AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN TO THE FORECAST AREA THAT COULD LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BECOME DIFFICULT TO TIME IN THIS PATTERN AND
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME INSTABILITY BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WILL GENERALLY BROADBRUSH FORECAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
IMPACTS: AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
AREA WINDS: EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KGGW...
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR OTHER TERMINALS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
317 AM MDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY. THE 01/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD TRIGGER A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES ENHANCED BY DIURNAL
HEATING. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY LARGE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE SINKING
MOTION SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LIMITED OTHER THAN
THOSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. CHANCES ARE
CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS. THE ECMWF
IS JUST A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE AS IS THE
GFS. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH A WAVE INTO THE CWA YESTERDAY INTO YESTERDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...FELT COMFORTABLE INSERTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY...LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES
SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EAST. WILL GO WITH LOWER HIGHS THERE ANYWAY GIVEN THAT
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES CLOSER TO THE CWA WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SUPPRESSION OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A MUCH
GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE IN A RANGE
OF +22C TO +25C ACROSS THE CWA. THIS EASILY SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES
NEAR 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW AREAS PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM...AND
WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 90S.
WEDNESDAY PRESENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AS AIR FLOWS DOWN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE CWA. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +24C AND +30C TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 90 OR
ABOVE DURING THE AFTERNOON VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. ALSO...GIVEN WARM
850MB TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
WARMER START TO BEGIN WITH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALSO ASSIST
IN MAKING FOR A VERY HOT DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FORMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND WITH FULL VERTICAL MIXING...MID AND UPPER 90S
ARE A POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION. WILL NOT GET OVERLY CARRIED AWAY
JUST YET AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAY PUT A CEILING ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB. THE LATEST
NAM BRINGS IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH COULD SET OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRY HOWEVER FOR THE PERIOD.
INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL ASCENT WHEN NORTHEAST
MONTANA WINDS UP TO THE LEFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH SUCH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING...AS A WAVE APPROACHES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND SO INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION. IF ANYTHING ELSE...CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS COULD ALSO
RESULT IN PUTTING A CAP ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN A FEW PLACES.
THUS...EXPECT BROADLY MID 90S ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...IN AREAS
WHERE FULL VERTICAL MIXING IS REALIZED...AND CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION IS MINIMIZED...CAN EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE UPPER 90S. WHILE A FEW MODELS POINT OUT
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF UPPER 90S BEING MORE WIDESPREAD...SOME OF
THE RELIABLE MODEL BLENDS AND BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL BLENDS POINT
MORE TOWARD MID 90S. THEREFORE...LEANED TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL FURTHER FOR A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AS IT IS STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS OUT. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHANCE.
THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MONTANA
BY SATURDAY. WILL SEE FREQUENT SHORTWAVES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A COOLER AND AT TIMES AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN TO THE FORECAST AREA THAT COULD LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BECOME DIFFICULT TO TIME IN THIS PATTERN AND
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME INSTABILITY BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WILL GENERALLY BROADBRUSH FORECAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. EXPECT FOR THE LOCAL EASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS AT KGGW...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
932 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.UPDATE...HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS. DO NOT WANT
TO FULLY REMOVE THINGS...SO WILL LEAVE ISOLATED MENTION IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS KEEP THINGS ACTIVE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...542 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...ARE MOVING SOUTH
POSING A THREAT TO AVIATORS. LOOKS LIKE KABQ MOST LIKELY TO GET A
THUNDERSTORM PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. KSAF ALSO PROBABLE FOR A SH/TS BUT THINKING SH IS MORE
LIKELY. KABQ AND KSAF TAFS REFLECT THIS. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH
THESE STORMS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS. MOST STORMS LIKELY
TO DISSIPATE BY 04Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING SCATTERED SH/TS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 35 KTS.
01
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A
BETTER FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
WETTING RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER HIGH MEANDERS BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND OVER ARIZONA AND BELT OF STRONGER UPPER WINDS LINGERS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. RUC INDICATES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
WILL BE FAVORED LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER GUSTY EAST WIND LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN ABQ METRO THIS
EVENING. THE SURFACE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE RUC INDICATES THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED WEST TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT...AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTDVD TO
GUP AND FMN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD REPEAT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO RESULT IN SLOWER STORM MOTION AND PERHAPS A BIT OF DRYING.
A TREND TOWARDS WARMER HIGHS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND STILL
STANDS AS THE HIGH CENTER BECOMES LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO. DON/T SEE
A MECHANISM TO TOTALLY DRY US OUT SO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOCATIONS. IN FACT
THE ECMWF INDICATES A SETUP FOR THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD IMPORT SOME
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION AND RESULT IN BETTER
THAN GENERIC CONVECTION. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH WILL BE
WITH US INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
.FIRE WEATHER...
OT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER HIGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
ARIZONA. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A
NORTH/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS. WETTING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE FOOTPRINT OF A
TENTH OF AN INCH WOULD BE THE SMALLEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR
SO. THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME A BIT LIGHTER THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD
REMAIN A CONCERN. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD. THIS IS WHERE TEEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE FOUND AT
TIMES DURING LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PLACING THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS DOESNT LOOK TO BE AN ESPECIALLY STRONG UPPER
HIGH SO A CAPPING INVERSION IN TERMS OF AFFECTING STORM POTENTIAL IS
NOT EXPECTED. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOME DURING THIS PERIOD THUS ALLOWING FOR OTHER AREAS WITHIN
MOUNTAIN RANGES TO BE FAVORED VERSUS WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RECYCLED MOISTURE PERIOD. THIS
MEANS THE WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT FOR STORMS WOULD REDUCE SOME AS THE
OVERALL ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT DRIER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BECOME A BIT WARMER. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS AND THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED WITH THE STORMS. WESTERN AREAS
COULD SEE LONGER PERIODS OF LOW HUMIDITY AS TIME GOES ON UNDER THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...ESPECIALLY THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. SOME WESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD RETURN BUT NOT REAL STRONG. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THIS PERIOD
ALTHOUGH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT INDICATE THAT SORT OF INFLUENCE
AT THIS TIME.
MODELS INDICATE SOME SORT OF UPPER HIGH INFLUENCE INTO NEXT WEEK AND
SUSPECT THAT THE RECYCLING OF MOISTURE WOULD CONTINUE IN THE FORM OR
ISOLD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS. CANT HANG
MY HAT ON ANY ONE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTRUSION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM AT THIS TIME BUT SUSPECT A BACK DOOR WILL DO THAT. MODELS
SHOW SOME SORT OF BACK DOOR OR HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE SURGE TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT AS TIME GOES ON. TIMING OF
THAT WOULD MOST LIKELY ADJUST SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT EVENT
PERIOD.
50
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
FASTER MOVING SH/TS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE VERSUS WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY AS FAR AS IMPACTS TO
TERMINAL SITES. HAVE VCTS OR SH MENTIONED AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL
SITES. HAVE TEMPO SH/TS AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL SITES EXCEPT FOR
FMN. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME BLDU WILL BE
POSSIBLE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SITES. WETTER STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THAT COULD BRING MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...CANT RULE OUT SOME LONGER
DURATION RAINFALL AND MVFR CIGS AT LVS AND PERHAPS EVEN ROW BASED
ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...ARE MOVING SOUTH
POSING A THREAT TO AVIATORS. LOOKS LIKE KABQ MOST LIKELY TO GET A
THUNDERSTORM PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. KSAF ALSO PROBABLE FOR A SH/TS BUT THINKING SH IS MORE
LIKELY. KABQ AND KSAF TAFS REFLECT THIS. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH
THESE STORMS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS. MOST STORMS LIKELY
TO DISSIPATE BY 04Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING SCATTERED SH/TS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 35 KTS.
01
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A
BETTER FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
WETTING RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER HIGH MEANDERS BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND OVER ARIZONA AND BELT OF STRONGER UPPER WINDS LINGERS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. RUC INDICATES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
WILL BE FAVORED LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER GUSTY EAST WIND LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN ABQ METRO THIS
EVENING. THE SURFACE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE RUC INDICATES THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED WEST TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT...AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTDVD TO
GUP AND FMN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD REPEAT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO RESULT IN SLOWER STORM MOTION AND PERHAPS A BIT OF DRYING.
A TREND TOWARDS WARMER HIGHS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND STILL
STANDS AS THE HIGH CENTER BECOMES LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO. DON/T SEE
A MECHANISM TO TOTALLY DRY US OUT SO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOCATIONS. IN FACT
THE ECMWF INDICATES A SETUP FOR THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD IMPORT SOME
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION AND RESULT IN BETTER
THAN GENERIC CONVECTION. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH WILL BE
WITH US INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
.FIRE WEATHER...
OT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER HIGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
ARIZONA. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A
NORTH/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS. WETTING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE FOOTPRINT OF A
TENTH OF AN INCH WOULD BE THE SMALLEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR
SO. THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME A BIT LIGHTER THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD
REMAIN A CONCERN. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD. THIS IS WHERE TEEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE FOUND AT
TIMES DURING LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PLACING THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS DOESNT LOOK TO BE AN ESPECIALLY STRONG UPPER
HIGH SO A CAPPING INVERSION IN TERMS OF AFFECTING STORM POTENTIAL IS
NOT EXPECTED. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOME DURING THIS PERIOD THUS ALLOWING FOR OTHER AREAS WITHIN
MOUNTAIN RANGES TO BE FAVORED VERSUS WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RECYCLED MOISTURE PERIOD. THIS
MEANS THE WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT FOR STORMS WOULD REDUCE SOME AS THE
OVERALL ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT DRIER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BECOME A BIT WARMER. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS AND THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED WITH THE STORMS. WESTERN AREAS
COULD SEE LONGER PERIODS OF LOW HUMIDITY AS TIME GOES ON UNDER THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...ESPECIALLY THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. SOME WESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD RETURN BUT NOT REAL STRONG. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THIS PERIOD
ALTHOUGH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT INDICATE THAT SORT OF INFLUENCE
AT THIS TIME.
MODELS INDICATE SOME SORT OF UPPER HIGH INFLUENCE INTO NEXT WEEK AND
SUSPECT THAT THE RECYCLING OF MOISTURE WOULD CONTINUE IN THE FORM OR
ISOLD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS. CANT HANG
MY HAT ON ANY ONE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTRUSION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM AT THIS TIME BUT SUSPECT A BACK DOOR WILL DO THAT. MODELS
SHOW SOME SORT OF BACK DOOR OR HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE SURGE TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT AS TIME GOES ON. TIMING OF
THAT WOULD MOST LIKELY ADJUST SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT EVENT
PERIOD.
50
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
FASTER MOVING SH/TS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE VERSUS WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY AS FAR AS IMPACTS TO
TERMINAL SITES. HAVE VCTS OR SH MENTIONED AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL
SITES. HAVE TEMPO SH/TS AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL SITES EXCEPT FOR
FMN. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME BLDU WILL BE
POSSIBLE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SITES. WETTER STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THAT COULD BRING MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...CANT RULE OUT SOME LONGER
DURATION RAINFALL AND MVFR CIGS AT LVS AND PERHAPS EVEN ROW BASED
ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OFF OF
THE EAST COAST ARE PROVIDING SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS BRINGING WARM
AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO BE CLOUDY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A 500 MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND A TROF ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS.
SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BLENDING LATE
EVENING RADAR TRENDS WITH THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE STEADIEST SHOWERS
WILL BE IN THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD BE RATHER SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE DIMINISHED INTENSITY...AND STEADY STORM MOTION AS THE
700 MB FLOW TAKES OVER.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE TROF AXIS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NUDGES JUST A TAD EASTWARD
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH THE TROF FURTHER WEST...WHICH
WILL ALSO SHIFT THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION SLIGHTLY. EXPECT MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD EXPAND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. AS WAS THE CASE
TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS ALONG
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES...BUT ON WEDNESDAY THIS FOCUS WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT WEST... JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH
RANGE...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ANY SLOW MOVING CELLS TO
PRODUCE FLOODING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
LOWER LAKE PLAINS AND URBAN LOCALES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE OVERLYING WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS BECAUSE A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HUMID AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL COMBINE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO MAINTAIN THE CONTINUAL FEED OF GULF
MOISTURE...WHICH FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
TROPICAL PWAT VALUES THAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.
COUPLE THIS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WITH WHAT SEEMS LIKE A NEVER
ENDING TRAIN OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
AS WAS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WHILE THIS PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THIS SCENARIO
IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS. GIVEN THE MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION...THIS MEANS A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR
HYDRO CONCERNS. THIS CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). SOME DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD FOLLOW THE SCRIPT OFFERED UP FROM THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...
DIURNALLY ASSISTED CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON WILL DIE OFF DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
THEN APPROACH FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAVE A LULL IN
PCPN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH POPS INCREASING AGAIN TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WILL THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
QUITE ACTIVE AS THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WITH NEAR 2
INCH PWAT VALUES WILL BE FOCUSED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. UP TO THIS
POINT..THIS PLUME WILL HAVE BEEN ALIGNED FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK ACROSS NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
IT IS NO COINCIDENCE THAT THIS IS LARGELY WHERE THE HIGH NUMBER OF
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THE PAST FEW DAYS.
IN ANY CASE...THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE ACTED
UPON BY AT LEAST ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT AT LIKELY POPS OVER THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
MBE (MESO-BETA CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS) VELOCITIES AVERAGING JUST 10 TO
15 KNOTS...WHICH FURTHER ENHANCES THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINS. WILL ONCE AGAIN USE SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE GRIDS BY
ADDING THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE LIKELY POPS.
WHILE THE PRESENCE AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS A CHALLENGE FOR THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE MODELS TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LULL IN THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...CORE OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD BOIL DOWN TO LESS WIDESPREAD SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL
THUS KEEP CHC POPS IN PLACE FROM CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY AND SLGT CHC
FOR FRI NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF TEMPS...MERCURY READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS (LOW 60S ELEVATED TERRAIN).
H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 16C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH A RETROGRADING BERMUDA HIGH BEING THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN VIRTUALLY GUARANTEES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM 65 TO 70.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...A WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. GIVEN THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...THERE SHOULD BE LESS
FREQUENT SHORTWAVE PASSAGES AND SOMEWHAT LOWER PWAT VALUES (DUE TO
THE MORE CIRCUITOUS CONNECTION TO THE GULF)...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LONGER RAIN FREE PERIODS WITH A LOWER RISK FOR HYDRO ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WESTWARD SHIFT IN
MOISTURE. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS
EVENING WITH BOTH CIGS AND HAZE A POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTION.
LATER TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE CALM...BUT WIND AROUND 2000
FEET WILL RUN ABOUT 20 KNOTS. NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LAYERS...WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME FOG.
FOG AND LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. STORMS
COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER VSBY TO 2SM OR LESS IN HEAVY RAIN.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR EACH DAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST AND
EASTERLY TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...EXPECT A
SLIGHT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
753 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD, ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE...
STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING FROM
EFFICIENT RAINERS IN THIS VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT /MBE/
VECTORS ARE VERY SHORT...SUGGESTING TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING
ABILITY FOR ANY CONTINUED CONVECTION. THE ONE POSITIVE THOUGH IS
THAT CONVECTION WITH INBOUND WAVE THAT WAS COMING FROM THE CAROLINAS
TO MIDATLANTIC STATES...HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND PREFERENCE FOR ADVECTING CLOSER TO THE COAST
TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
HOWEVER...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND HRRR DEPICT
THE SURFACE-CONVERGENCE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EAST TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
ALSO...CENTRAL PA CONVECTION ALSO SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS NEPA AND
PERHAPS TO THE CATSKILLS THIS EVENING. SO ONGOING FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT CURRENTLY RUNS TO 1 AM STILL LOOKS GOOD. PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA THAT HAVE HAD REPEATED HEAVY RAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS CAN
ONLY HANDLE AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN...WHICH REMAINING SHOWERS ARE
STILL CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF DOING IN A LOCALIZED SENSE.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE SPECIFICS ESPECIALLY FOR THE LARGER
STEM RIVER TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD BACK TO THE WEST KEEPING DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE WESTERN EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
MIGHT ALLOW POPS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST BY THURSDAY OR
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS SOME CAPPING MAY EXIST UNDER THE RIDGE.
OVERALL WILL BE CONTINUING WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE
DAY WITH LOW CHC POPS AT NIGHT IN THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGHEST POPS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE... BUT REALLY
A SHOWER OR STORM COULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. AND
WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE ANY STRONG STORM COULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S UPDATE AS RATHER
STAGNANT NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BROAD
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDWEST TROF
REMAINING. TRENDS SUGGEST A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WHICH MAY TAKE
THE SERIOUS RAIN AND FLOOD CONCERNS TO OUR WEST. HEIGHT FALLS FROM
THE POLAR JET MAY ALSO WORK ON FLATTENING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGH DWPT AIR AND WARM TEMPS. WITHOUT MUCH NOTED
IN THE MODELS TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN...THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO
FEATURE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TRENDS IN POPS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY WITH
SOME REPRIEVE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
DAYIME...AND MID-UPR 60S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING FALLING TO MVFR AND IFR LATE TONIGHT
THEN BACK TO VFR BY 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CONTINUE AND COULD
STILL PRODUCE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES THIS EVE.
FOR NOW...WE`VE KEPT RESTRICTIONS IN THE MVFR CAT...AND WE`LL
INSERT THUNDER ON AN AS NEEDED BASIS. THUNDER COVERAGE IS
DECREASING. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE ALL NIGHT BUT WITH SATURATED
LOW LEVELS AND WET GROUND CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP. SYR RME AND
AVP WILL FALL TO MVFR CIG AND VSBYS BETWEEN 6 AND 9Z. AT ELM ITH
BGM IT WILL BE EARLIER BETWEEN 5 AND 8Z THEN FALLING TO IFR CIG
AND VSBY 9 TO 13Z. ALL SITES BACK TO VFR BY AROUND 14Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS
AROUND 15Z THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN.
.OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THROUGH SUN...AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. ALSO...EARLY EACH
AM...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CLDS/FOG ARE FORESEEN.
OTHWS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
7 PM UPDATE...
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES AT CORTLAND...NORWICH...AND SHERBURNE.
MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE SUSQUEHANNA AT CONKLIN...VESTAL AND
WAVERLY/SAYRE. SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST.
THE RIVER TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY STEADY TO SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA MAIN STEM...CONKLIN ON DOWN...WHICH STILL NEEDS TO
PROCESS THE SURGE OF RUNOFF DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
RELATIVE TRANQUILITY OF THE FORECASTS IS IN PART DUE TO RAINFALL
FORECASTS OF ONLY AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT FORECASTS PROVIDED
TO THE HYDRAULIC MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING ENOUGH RAIN IN THE
BASINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS PLUME OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTH
OUT OF VIRGINA ARRIVES TONIGHT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS AREA OF
RAIN HOLDING TOGETHER...AND PRODUCING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL IS NOT GREAT EITHER...BUT THIS AIRMASS IS
VERY TROPICAL AND EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING BIG AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED EXTREMELY CLOSELY. AS ALWAYS...WILL
BE CONCERNED WITH CONVECTIVE LINES AND TRAINING CELLS OVER SMALL
SCALE BASINS THAT COULD TURN THE TIDE OF HEADWATER POINTS AND
FLASH FLOODING ON US RATHER QUICKLY. SHORT TERM RAINFALL FLASH
FLOOD RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...JAB/TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
744 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OFF OF
THE EAST COAST ARE PROVIDING SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS BRINGING WARM
AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO BE CLOUDY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A 500 MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND A TROF ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTING A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. UNTIL THEN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS
ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. AT 700 PM...THIS
BOUNDARY EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM JAMESTOWN TO ROCHESTER...TO
SYRACUSE...TO LOWVILLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75
INCHES...SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOLLOWING HRRR GUIDANCE...EXPECT
THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL LIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTH...WITH THE STEADIEST SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT SHOULD EXPAND AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS ALONG CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE WYOMING HILLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR LOWER LAKE
PLAINS AND URBAN LOCALES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE OVERLYING WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS BECAUSE A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HUMID AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL COMBINE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO MAINTAIN THE CONTINUAL FEED OF GULF
MOISTURE...WHICH FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
TROPICAL PWAT VALUES THAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.
COUPLE THIS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WITH WHAT SEEMS LIKE A NEVER
ENDING TRAIN OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
AS WAS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WHILE THIS PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THIS SCENARIO
IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS. GIVEN THE MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION...THIS MEANS A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR
HYDRO CONCERNS. THIS CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). SOME DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD FOLLOW THE SCRIPT OFFERED UP FROM THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...
DIURNALLY ASSISTED CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON WILL DIE OFF DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
THEN APPROACH FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAVE A LULL IN
PCPN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH POPS INCREASING AGAIN TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WILL THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
QUITE ACTIVE AS THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WITH NEAR 2
INCH PWAT VALUES WILL BE FOCUSED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. UP TO THIS
POINT..THIS PLUME WILL HAVE BEEN ALIGNED FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK ACROSS NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
IT IS NO COINCIDENCE THAT THIS IS LARGELY WHERE THE HIGH NUMBER OF
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THE PAST FEW DAYS.
IN ANY CASE...THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE ACTED
UPON BY AT LEAST ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT AT LIKELY POPS OVER THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
MBE (MESO-BETA CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS) VELOCITIES AVERAGING JUST 10 TO
15 KNOTS...WHICH FURTHER ENHANCES THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINS. WILL ONCE AGAIN USE SOME ENHANCED WORDING IN THE GRIDS BY
ADDING THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE LIKELY POPS.
WHILE THE PRESENCE AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS A CHALLENGE FOR THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE MODELS TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LULL IN THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...CORE OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD BOIL DOWN TO LESS WIDESPREAD SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL
THUS KEEP CHC POPS IN PLACE FROM CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY AND SLGT CHC
FOR FRI NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF TEMPS...MERCURY READINGS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS (LOW 60S ELEVATED TERRAIN).
H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 16C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH A RETROGRADING BERMUDA HIGH BEING THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN VIRTUALLY GUARANTEES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM 65 TO 70.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...A WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. GIVEN THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...THERE SHOULD BE LESS
FREQUENT SHORTWAVE PASSAGES AND SOMEWHAT LOWER PWAT VALUES (DUE TO
THE MORE CIRCUITOUS CONNECTION TO THE GULF)...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LONGER RAIN FREE PERIODS WITH A LOWER RISK FOR HYDRO ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WESTWARD SHIFT IN
MOISTURE. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH BOTH CIGS AND HAZE A POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTION. SHOWERS
SHOULD LARGELY MISS TAF SITES...BU MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT JHW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE CALM...BUT WIND AROUND 2000
FEET WILL RUN ABOUT 20 KNOTS. NIGHTTIME COOLING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LAYERS...WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME FOG.
FOG AND LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. STORMS
COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER VSBY TO 2SM OR LESS IN HEAVY RAIN.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR EACH DAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST AND
EASTERLY TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...EXPECT A
SLIGHT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
203 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S WARMER VALLEYS. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...VERY DIFFICULT AFTERNOON FORECAST AS
MAJORITY OF 12Z NWP GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING CURRENT TRENDS VERY
WELL. INITIAL SURGES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHING NORTHWARD THOUGH CENTRAL PA/NY ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPLIT THE UPRIGHTS IN REGARD TO THE BTV CWA WITH
MOST OF THE AREA SEEING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP. LATEST 15Z HRRR IS
ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL WITH A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP
TRENDS...AND DEVELOPS THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING NORTH FROM PA
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING CLOSER TO 23-00Z. HAVE BACKED
OFF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHLIGHTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE DECREASED QPF
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...KNOCKING IT DOWN BY ALMOST HALF. STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TIMING NOW PUSHED OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOR TONIGHT...POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WL SHIFT INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z...ALONG WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WL
MENTION CAT/LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER TO SCHC/CHC AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN. EXPECT A SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT IN TEMPS...WITH COOLEST READINGS ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN
DACKS AND WARMEST LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON TUES AFTN AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE CHANGE ON
TUESDAY AFTN WL BE INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WL SPREAD INTO MOST OF VT AND NORTHERN
NY...AS WARM FRNT INTERSECTS OUR CWA.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS
VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING AS
S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200%
ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN
ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL
BE LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH
FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION SCHC/CHC POPS ON
TUES AM...BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY AND MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY
WITH LIS AROUND -3C AND CAPE BTWN 1200-1800 J/KG. SOUNDING SHOW WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS >12KFT...PWS NEAR 2.0"...AND MODEST INSTABILITY
PRESENT...WHICH SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES
LIKELY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY TUES EVENING AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND S/W ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF CWA. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 14-16C ON TUES...BUT CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME...WL STILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MENTION HIGHS IN THE M70S MTNS
TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS.
WEDS...SW FLW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED S/W ENERGY WL CONT ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH A LLVL BOUNDARY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
SLIGHTLY...CREATING INCREASED INSTABILITY VALUES AND THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. PWS CONT TO BE BTWN 1.50 AND 2.0"...SO
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS WL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WL MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT MONDAY...PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE
FORECAST AREA SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A DEEP
AND MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH (NEAR 2 INCHES)...
THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.
BY THE WEEKEND...PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY AS AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA
HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS FLATTENS INTO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALMOST
CERTAIN THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT HARD TO TIME SUCH
FEATURES THIS FAR OUT SO WILL JUST CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE
HUMID AS WELL. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...COMPLEX FORECAST WITH GENERAL BREAK IN
PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY VARYING
CONDITIONS...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THREAT OF SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS AT KBTV/KPBG WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH
SHOWERS...WHILE MOST TAF SITE ARE ALREADY MVFR...WITH BOUTS OF
IFR. KMSS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. SHOWERS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...TAPERING OFF AFTER 08Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND TO AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. MVFR
CONDITIONS PSBL IN THE CPV...SLV...AND KRUT. EXPECT KMPV AND KSLK
TO SEE IFR THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS EXISTS FOR TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF REDUCTION
TO MVFR IN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND IFR SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO FOG GENERALLY 06-12Z. SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE THE
ONLY DAY OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 18 UTC THIS AFTN
UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTN INTO TUESDAY. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE 1ST ARRIVING THIS
AFTN/EVENING AND ANOTHER ON TUES. FORECASTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACRS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AREA WIDE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.
THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE... SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV GOT 0.30" OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT AND FELL 0.07
SHORT OF BREAKING THE ALL-TIME JUNE PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 9.92.
THE 18.60" MAY-JUN TOTAL IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD BESTING THE
13.87" IN 2006.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ028-030-031-
034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS/KGM
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
141 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT. LARGE AREA OF RAIN SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN IN THE FAR SE HAS MOVED
EAST. EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO THE CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY.
STEADY RAIN UP TO AN INCH BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO MINOR URBAN PROBLEMS IN THE ELMIRA AREA WITH A
TSTORM SUNDAY AFTN. UPPED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE.
THIS AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NE PA AND MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MULTI INCH
AMOUNTS. WILL BE WATCHING RADAR CLOSELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A
LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES
ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES
NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST
OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT
PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES.
NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU
THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND
AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE
DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING
LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT
TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF
CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE
FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP
OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT.
CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY
DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED.
HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN
GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE TEMPS.
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF
IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. RAIN WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOPING
KEEPING MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
AROUND 14Z ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUINGS.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK... TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN
THE VICINITY. AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NOON MON UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO NOON TUESDAY. ADDED THE CENT SRN
TIER OF NY SO ONLY COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH YATES TO ONONDAGA. SO
FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER CONTROL AND ONLY ADVISORIES ISSUED.
SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN SO MORE ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. GROUND SATURATED. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE LOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN
INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. WITH THIS AIRMASS TSTORMS CAN PUT OUT 1
TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. STORMS WILL ONLY BE MOVING AT ABOUT 20
MPH. RAINFALL TOTALS 1 TO 2 INCHES WIDESPREAD WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON
THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. MINOR FLOODING
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT LEAST...AS PER STATEMENTS
HANDLED VIA NWS ALBANY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER AT CONKLIN RUNNING HIGH AND BELOW FLOOD STAGE. FORECAST TO
GO TO FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT MINOR FLOOD INTO
THURSDAY. RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS.
VESTAL AND WAVERLY/SAYRE ON THE SUSQUEHANNA FORECASTED TO GO TO
JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY TOO. STILL TIME FOR
THESE POINTS. HEADWATER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE BUT DEPENDENT MORE
ON TRAINING TSTORMS PUTTING DOWN LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-022>025-
036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MSE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S WARMER VALLEYS. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...VERY DIFFICULT AFTERNOON FORECAST AS
MAJORITY OF 12Z NWP GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING CURRENT TRENDS VERY
WELL. INITIAL SURGES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHING NORTHWARD THOUGH CENTRAL PA/NY ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPLIT THE UPRIGHTS IN REGARD TO THE BTV CWA WITH
MOST OF THE AREA SEEING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP. LATEST 15Z HRRR IS
ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL WITH A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP
TRENDS...AND DEVELOPS THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING NORTH FROM PA
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING CLOSER TO 23-00Z. HAVE BACKED
OFF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHLIGHTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE DECREASED QPF
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...KNOCKING IT DOWN BY ALMOST HALF. STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TIMING NOW PUSHED OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOR TONIGHT...POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WL SHIFT INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z...ALONG WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WL
MENTION CAT/LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER TO SCHC/CHC AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN. EXPECT A SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT IN TEMPS...WITH COOLEST READINGS ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN
DACKS AND WARMEST LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON TUES AFTN AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE CHANGE ON
TUESDAY AFTN WL BE INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WL SPREAD INTO MOST OF VT AND NORTHERN
NY...AS WARM FRNT INTERSECTS OUR CWA.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS
VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING AS
S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200%
ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN
ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL
BE LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH
FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION SCHC/CHC POPS ON
TUES AM...BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY AND MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY
WITH LIS AROUND -3C AND CAPE BTWN 1200-1800 J/KG. SOUNDING SHOW WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS >12KFT...PWS NEAR 2.0"...AND MODEST INSTABILITY
PRESENT...WHICH SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES
LIKELY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY TUES EVENING AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND S/W ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF CWA. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 14-16C ON TUES...BUT CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME...WL STILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MENTION HIGHS IN THE M70S MTNS
TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS.
WEDS...SW FLW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED S/W ENERGY WL CONT ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH A LLVL BOUNDARY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
SLIGHTLY...CREATING INCREASED INSTABILITY VALUES AND THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. PWS CONT TO BE BTWN 1.50 AND 2.0"...SO
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS WL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WL MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT MONDAY...PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE
FORECAST AREA SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A DEEP
AND MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH (NEAR 2 INCHES)...
THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.
BY THE WEEKEND...PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY AS AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA
HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS FLATTENS INTO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALMOST
CERTAIN THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT HARD TO TIME SUCH
FEATURES THIS FAR OUT SO WILL JUST CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE
HUMID AS WELL. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/RUT TILL 14Z. VFR/MVFR CIGS
AFTER 14Z...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
MSS. RAIN CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR IN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND IFR SOME LOCATIONS
DUE TO FOG GENERALLY 06-12Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 18 UTC THIS AFTN
UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTN INTO TUESDAY. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE 1ST ARRIVING THIS
AFTN/EVENING AND ANOTHER ON TUES. FORECASTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACRS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AREA WIDE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIAPTED WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE TO
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...
SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV GOT 0.30" OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT AND FELL 0.07
SHORT OF BREAKING THE ALL-TIME JUNE PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 9.92.
THE 18.60" MAY-JUN TOTAL IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD BESTING THE
13.87" IN 2006.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ028-030-031-
034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1217 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT. LARGE AREA OF RAIN SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN IN THE FAR SE HAS MOVED
EAST. EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO THE CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY.
STEADY RAIN UP TO AN INCH BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO MINOR URBAN PROBLEMS IN THE ELMIRA AREA WITH A
TSTORM SUNDAY AFTN. UPPED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE.
THIS AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NE PA AND MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MULTI INCH
AMOUNTS. WILL BE WATCHING RADAR CLOSELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A
LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES
ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES
NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST
OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT
PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES.
NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU
THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND
AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE
DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING
LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT
TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF
CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE
FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP
OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT.
CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY
DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED.
HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN
GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE TEMPS.
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST CONTINUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MVFR WITH EMBEDDED
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ENGULFED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE
TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE
OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE
STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN
THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT.
OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NOON MON UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO NOON TUESDAY. ADDED THE CENT SRN
TIER OF NY SO ONLY COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH YATES TO ONONDAGA. SO
FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER CONTROL AND ONLY ADVISORIES ISSUED.
SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN SO MORE ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. GROUND SATURATED. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE LOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN
INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. WITH THIS AIRMASS TSTORMS CAN PUT OUT 1
TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. STORMS WILL ONLY BE MOVING AT ABOUT 20
MPH. RAINFALL TOTALS 1 TO 2 INCHES WIDESPREAD WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON
THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. MINOR FLOODING
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT LEAST...AS PER STATEMENTS
HANDLED VIA NWS ALBANY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER AT CONKLIN RUNNING HIGH AND BELOW FLOOD STAGE. FORECAST TO
GO TO FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT MINOR FLOOD INTO
THURSDAY. RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS.
VESTAL AND WAVERLY/SAYRE ON THE SUSQUEHANNA FORECASTED TO GO TO
JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY TOO. STILL TIME FOR
THESE POINTS. HEADWATER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE BUT DEPENDENT MORE
ON TRAINING TSTORMS PUTTING DOWN LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-022>025-
036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN QUEBEC ACROSS OUR WESTERN
NEW YORK TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TODAY AND AGAIN DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SLOW MOVING STORMS AND A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMALS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THE MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE MUGGY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE WEST ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEP 500 MB TROF DIPPING
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SSW FLOW ALOFT.
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOW THIS PICKING UP MOISTURE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND LIFTING IT UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS WHERE ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS. FOR
THE MOST PART...THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROF AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LIONS SHARE OF THIS MOISTURE TO OUR EAST TODAY.
A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS ALL POINT
TO THE GREATEST QPFS ACROSS EASTERN PA/NY...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NOW EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RADAR TREND
SUGGEST THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK.
WHILE THE LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY MISS WESTERN NEW
YORK...THERE IS A MORE SUBTLE FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...EXTENDING BACK TO CENTRAL OHIO. 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT NOW IT CAPTURES BOTH AREAS
SEPARATELY...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF MOST RUNS OF THE HRRR.
BECAUSE THESE LATTER MODELS ARE MATCHING RADAR TRENDS BETTER THAN
OLDER RUNS...SUSPECT THEY ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH A BETTER
HANDLE ON SUBTLE WAVES OF MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF THE GULF. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT...WITH 700 MB WINDS ONLY 10 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STALL ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. WHILE
GRID-SCALE QPFS FOR TODAY ONLY PEAK AT AN INCH...STALLED STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
BECAUSE OF THIS RISK...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AREA FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM SE-NW TODAY...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD
LIFT EAST OF THE REGION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SOME
ENHANCED MOISTURE WHILE BRINGING THE HEAVIEST RAINS JUST TO OUR
EAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SLIGHTLY WHEN COMPARED
WITH YESTERDAY.
FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE EXIT OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF
MOISTURE. WHILE IT IS TOO FAR TO BE TRACED ON SATELLITE...ADDITIONAL
WAVES ARE LIKELY...AND WITH THE SURFACE TROF LIKELY TO BE A BIT
FURTHER WEST...ANY WAVE WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF CROSSING OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD POSE
ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE
LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS TIME PERIOD AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN
WILL FAVOR DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SUCH THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD.
TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THROUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO START THE DAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF WNY AND NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AS THE LIKELIEST PLACE FOR THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SATURATED GROUND...MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHICH WILL ALSO PUSH THE SURFACE TROF AXIS FURTHER WEST.
WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
ON WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS BY WEDNESDAY CLIMB BACK
UPWARDS TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH
WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME FORMING GIVING THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST
FLOW. TRADITIONALLY THESE LAKE BREEZES WILL PLACE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. WILL PLACE LIKELY POPS HERE WHILE HOLDING THE
REMAINING AREAS UNDER A CHANCE POP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OF THE LAKE BREEZES DIMINISH
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH 850
HPA TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BETWEEN 14 AND 16C ACROSS THE CWA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT NIGHT
TIME...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND A POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
ON THURSDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD PWATS
WILL CLIMB UPWARDS TOWARDS 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ONTARIO WILL BE
MORE LIKELY THURSDAY...WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING A STABLE AIRMASS
INLAND LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE OPEN WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS
ALLOWS THE BERMUDA HIGH TO PRESS FARTHER INLAND. THIS PUSH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BACK THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AND SHIFT THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI. WILL
STILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
LAKE BREEZES MAY TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THIS MOISTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY START TO
ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING A HEIGHTEN RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THOUGH WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
START THIS TIME PERIOD...AND HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD TO
AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND SOME
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES... VFR CONDS PREVAIL THIS
MORNING. THE LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWEST BRINGING THE MVFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS FURTHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LIKELY TO RESULT IN MOSTLY MVFR CIGS. CONDS AT KJHW
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR WITH FOG.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A MODEST NE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP
BUILD WAVES ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WEST-CENTRAL
LAKE ERIE. EXPECT SCA CRITERIA ON WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND LK ERIE
WEST OF DUNKIRK FOR WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/LEVAN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/LEVAN
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
730 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN QUEBEC DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TODAY AND AGAIN
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SLOW MOVING STORMS AND A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMALS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THE MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE MUGGY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE WEST ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEP 500 MB TROF DIPPING
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SSW FLOW ALOFT.
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOW THIS PICKING UP MOISTURE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND LIFTING IT UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS WHERE ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS. FOR
THE MOST PART...THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROF AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LIONS SHARE OF THIS MOISTURE TO OUR EAST TODAY.
A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS ALL POINT
TO THE GREATEST QPFS ACROSS EASTERN PA/NY...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NOW EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RADAR TREND
SUGGEST THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK.
WHILE THE LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY MISS WESTERN NEW
YORK...THERE IS A MORE SUBTLE FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...EXTENDING BACK TO CENTRAL OHIO. 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT NOW IT CAPTURES BOTH AREAS
SEPARATELY...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF MOST RUNS OF THE HRRR.
BECAUSE THESE LATTER MODELS ARE MATCHING RADAR TRENDS BETTER THAN
OLDER RUNS...SUSPECT THEY ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH A BETTER
HANDLE ON SUBTLE WAVES OF MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF THE GULF. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT...WITH 700 MB WINDS ONLY 10 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STALL ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. WHILE
GRID-SCALE QPFS FOR TODAY ONLY PEAK AT AN INCH...STALLED STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
BECAUSE OF THIS RISK...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AREA FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM SE-NW TODAY...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD
LIFT EAST OF THE REGION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SOME
ENHANCED MOISTURE WHILE BRINGING THE HEAVIEST RAINS JUST TO OUR
EAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SLIGHTLY WHEN COMPARED
WITH YESTERDAY.
FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE EXIT OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF
MOISTURE. WHILE IT IS TOO FAR TO BE TRACED ON SATELLITE...ADDITIONAL
WAVES ARE LIKELY...AND WITH THE SURFACE TROF LIKELY TO BE A BIT
FURTHER WEST...ANY WAVE WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF CROSSING OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD POSE
ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE
LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS TIME PERIOD AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN
WILL FAVOR DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SUCH THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD.
TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THROUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO START THE DAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF WNY AND NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AS THE LIKELIEST PLACE FOR THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SATURATED GROUND...MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHICH WILL ALSO PUSH THE SURFACE TROF AXIS FURTHER WEST.
WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
ON WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS BY WEDNESDAY CLIMB BACK
UPWARDS TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH
WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME FORMING GIVING THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST
FLOW. TRADITIONALLY THESE LAKE BREEZES WILL PLACE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. WILL PLACE LIKELY POPS HERE WHILE HOLDING THE
REMAINING AREAS UNDER A CHANCE POP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OF THE LAKE BREEZES DIMINISH
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH 850
HPA TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BETWEEN 14 AND 16C ACROSS THE CWA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT NIGHT
TIME...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND A POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
ON THURSDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD PWATS
WILL CLIMB UPWARDS TOWARDS 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ONTARIO WILL BE
MORE LIKELY THURSDAY...WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING A STABLE AIRMASS
INLAND LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE OPEN WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS
ALLOWS THE BERMUDA HIGH TO PRESS FARTHER INLAND. THIS PUSH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BACK THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AND SHIFT THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI. WILL
STILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
LAKE BREEZES MAY TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THIS MOISTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY START TO
ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING A HEIGHTEN RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THOUGH WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
START THIS TIME PERIOD...AND HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD TO
AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND SOME
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT PRIMARILY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS...AS
SHOWERS HELP A LOW CLOUD DECK EXPAND IN THE NE FLOW. A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT FROM SE TO NW
TODAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE AT JHW...WHERE THERE IS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LESSER IMPACT ON THE OTHER TAF
LOCATIONS...BUT MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER VSBY TO 3SM OR LESS IN
MODERATE SHOWERS.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH CONTINUED LOW
MOISTURE LIKELY TO RESULT IN MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS. CIGS
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AT JHW...BUT A MODEST WIND SHOULD LIMIT
FOG POTENTIAL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A MODEST NE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP
BUILD WAVES ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WEST-CENTRAL
LAKE ERIE. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA BRIEFLY TODAY ON
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS MARGINAL ON LAKE ERIE...BUT CONSIDERING
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT...WILL ISSUE AN SCA FOR LAKE ERIE
WEST OF DUNKIRK...MAINLY FOR WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
725 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF
HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A
LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES
ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES
NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST
OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT
PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES.
NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU
THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND
AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE
DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING
LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT
TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF
CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE
FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP
OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT.
CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY
DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED.
HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN
GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE TEMPS.
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST CONTINUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MVFR WITH EMBEDDED
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ENGULFED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE
TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE
OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE
STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN
THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT.
OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
4 PM UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN
FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING
BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY
DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT.
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW
RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC
FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL
FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND
DELAWARE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY,
CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO
TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE
THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN
INCH IN THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037-
044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
409 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN QUEBEC DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TODAY AND AGAIN
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SLOW MOVING STORMS AND A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMALS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THE MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE MUGGY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEP 500 MB TROF DIPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SSW FLOW ALOFT. IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOW THIS PICKING UP MOISTURE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF AND LIFTING IT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS WHERE ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS. FOR
THE MOST PART...THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROF AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LIONS SHARE OF THIS MOISTURE TO OUR EAST TODAY.
A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS ALL POINT
TO THE GREATEST QPFS ACROSS EASTERN PA/NY...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP...AND IS ALSO IN
LINE WITH THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.
WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK APPEARS OUT OF THE AREA OF GREATEST
RISK...THERE ARE A FEW SUBTLETIES WHICH NEED TO BE WATCHED. AN
INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL HELP SPREAD MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. WHILE THE
TRAJECTORY OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST...THE MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT...WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STALL ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. IT WOULD
TAKE A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THIS...AND AT
THIS TIME THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL DEVELOP AND
IF SO WHERE. SOME RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE SUPPORT IN THIS FROM OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS NOT AMPLE CONFIDENCE IN A WATCH...BUT ONE
COULD BE ISSUED IF A CLEAR BOUNDARY DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM SE-NW TODAY...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD
LIFT EAST OF THE REGION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SOME
ENHANCED MOISTURE WHILE BRINGING THE HEAVIEST RAINS JUST TO OUR
EAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SLIGHTLY WHEN COMPARED
WITH YESTERDAY.
FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE EXIT OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF
MOISTURE. WHILE IT IS TOO FAR TO BE TRACED ON SATELLITE...ADDITIONAL
WAVES ARE LIKELY...AND WITH THE SURFACE TROF LIKELY TO BE A BIT
FURTHER WEST...ANY WAVE WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF CROSSING OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD POSE
ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE
LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS TIME PERIOD AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN
WILL FAVOR DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SUCH THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD.
TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THROUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO START THE DAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF WNY AND NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AS THE LIKELIEST PLACE FOR THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SATURATED GROUND...MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHICH WILL ALSO PUSH THE SURFACE TROF AXIS FURTHER WEST.
WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
ON WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS BY WEDNESDAY CLIMB BACK
UPWARDS TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH
WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME FORMING GIVING THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST
FLOW. TRADITIONALLY THESE LAKE BREEZES WILL PLACE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. WILL PLACE LIKELY POPS HERE WHILE HOLDING THE
REMAINING AREAS UNDER A CHANCE POP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OF THE LAKE BREEZES DIMINISH
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH 850
HPA TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BETWEEN 14 AND 16C ACROSS THE CWA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT NIGHT
TIME...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND A POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
ON THURSDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD PWATS
WILL CLIMB UPWARDS TOWARDS 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ONTARIO WILL BE
MORE LIKELY THURSDAY...WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING A STABLE AIRMASS
INLAND LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE OPEN WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS
ALLOWS THE BERMUDA HIGH TO PRESS FARTHER INLAND. THIS PUSH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BACK THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AND SHIFT THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI. WILL
STILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
LAKE BREEZES MAY TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THIS MOISTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY START TO
ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING A HEIGHTEN RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THOUGH WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
START THIS TIME PERIOD...AND HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD TO
AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND SOME
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z...MOST TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...LOW TO MID
CLOUD DECKS LIKELY TO STAY ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION
IS AT JHW...WHERE THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. AT JHW...CONDITIONS APPEAR NOTABLY DIFFERENT FROM LAST
NIGHT IN THAT THERE IS A 5-8 KT FLOW WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE
DENSE FOG FROM FORMING LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT. INSTEAD...EXPECT
LOWER CIGS FROM MVFR TO IFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS...AS LOW CLOUD
DECKS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND IN A NE FLOW. MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
(AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS MID-
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WAVE LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY...TEMPORARILY
LOWERING VSBY TO 2SM OR LESS.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH CONTINUED LOW
MOISTURE LIKELY TO RESULT IN MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT JHW.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A MODEST NE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP
BUILD WAVES ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WEST-CENTRAL
LAKE ERIE. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA BRIEFLY TODAY ON
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS MARGINAL ON LAKE ERIE...BUT CONSIDERING
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT...WILL ISSUE AN SCA FOR LAKE ERIE
WEST OF DUNKIRK...MAINLY FOR WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
403 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF
HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A
LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES
ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES
NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST
OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT
PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES.
NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU
THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND
AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE
DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING
LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT
TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF
CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE
FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP
OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT.
CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY
DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED.
HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN
GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE TEMPS.
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM EDT UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST IS AHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHERN PA. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KELM AND KBGM FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS LINGERING FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE
WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS.
THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN
THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT.
OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
4 PM UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN
FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING
BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY
DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT.
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW
RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC
FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL
FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND
DELAWARE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY,
CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO
TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE
THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN
INCH IN THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037-
044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
301 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF
HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A
LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES
ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES
NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST
OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT
PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES.
NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU
THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND
AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE
DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING
LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT
TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF
CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE
FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP
OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT.
CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY
DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED.
HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN
GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM EDT UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST IS AHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHERN PA. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KELM AND KBGM FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS LINGERING FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE
WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS.
THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN
THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT.
OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
4 PM UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN
FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING
BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY
DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT.
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW
RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC
FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL
FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND
DELAWARE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY,
CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO
TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE
THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN
INCH IN THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
217 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL USE 30-40 POPS TO
COVER REMAINING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRIOR
TO THE APPROACH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.
RE-TIMED PRECIP ONSET SLIGHTLY BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST.
730 PM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS ATTM. CURRENTLY WATCHING CONVECTION,
WHICH WE ANTICIPATE WILL WEAKEN BETWEEN 730 PM AND 10 PM WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING.
4 PM UPDATE...
FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF IT
LOCALIZED BUT IN SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD FLOODING A FEW
DAYS AGO. ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SE TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. MORE DETAILS AT BOTTOM.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM PIT TO ALY ACROSS THE
CWA. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSE OF SFC
HEATING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELPED BY A SHORT WAVE. WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE MEANT SLOW MOVING CONVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS TO CHANGE LITTLE MONDAY TO TUESDAY. THE SFC
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES
AND MAYBE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT COMBINED WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UL JET CREATING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGE OFF OF ATLANTIC
COAST WILL MOVE WEST TIGHTENING THE CONVERGENCE OVER NY PA. WITH
HEATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. AFTER MONDAY SUBTLE FEATURES WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP. WITH NO CAP AND MARGINAL SHEAR AND CAPE
ANY SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM EDT UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST IS AHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHERN PA. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KELM AND KBGM FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS LINGERING FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE
WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS.
THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN
THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT.
OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
4 PM UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN
FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING
BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY
DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT.
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW
RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC
FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL
FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND
DELAWARE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY,
CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO
TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE
THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN
INCH IN THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
TONIGHT... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 2 AND
2.25 INCHES ALL THE WAY NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR GREENSBORO (WHICH
REPORTED 1.86 PW AT 00Z/THIS EVENING). AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MID/UPPER
TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A STRENGTHENING WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WAS ALSO AIDING THE STRONG SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS SC/NC INTO VA. THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN OVERTURNED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ALMOST ALL OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION STILL ONGOING ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SPREADING OUTWARD FROM THE CORE OF THE EXPANSIVE
STABILIZED ZONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT (WHERE THE
CONVECTION EARLIER PRODUCED LIFE THREATENING FLOODING OVER CHATHAM
AND ORANGE COUNTIES). IT IS ALONG THESE OUTFLOWS WHERE TRAINING
CONVECTION MAY STILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 100 OR 200 AM...
NAMELY FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT... AND BACK OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH POP FOR FAY TO RDU
TO RWI THROUGH THAT TIME... WITH LOWERING POP ELSEWHERE.
THIS IS ONLY ROUND ONE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH... EXCESSIVELY WET PW`S...
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES (LEAD ON OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
TONIGHT). CONVECTION CAN RE-FIRE QUICKLY IN THIS TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT... EVEN LATE AT NIGHT (BUT MOST LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY WITH
HEATING). REGARDLESS... TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE VERY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. -BADGETT
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...
OVERALL: OUR PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS OR BANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48-60
HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WE ARE CERTAIN
TO SEE POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES LOCALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE SLOW-MOVING AND/OR REPEATED STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT: WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN
CONSTANTLY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME... THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS (AND LIKELY LONGER) OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE... INCLUDING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE
SHARPENING UPPER JET FROM ERN TN/KY THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS... AND
REPEATED SHOTS OF DPVA AS PERTURBATIONS RIDE FROM THE NE GULF UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IN PARTICULAR... BOTH
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED-CONVECTION MODELS LATCH ONTO
THE MID LEVEL MCV OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD WHILE
DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SSW STEERING FLOW NORTHWARD TOWARD NC TONIGHT. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE (NOTED ON MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
PLOTS) NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS... MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY HOLDS
OVER CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE STAYING IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE BOTH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT... AND RISING TO 800-1600 ON MONDAY. (IN
THE NEAR TERM... MESOANALYSES SHOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-7.5 C/KM... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM... AND MLCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS.) DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VERY HIGH PW
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING IN DIRECTLY FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS... AS THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL
DEPTH OVER 4 KM) WILL ENCOURAGE WARM RAIN PROCESSES... AND THE
ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ARE AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS... EVEN IF IT ONLY RAINS
HEAVILY FOR 15-30 MINUTES IN ANY GIVEN SPOT... RAPID RAIN RATES ARE
LIKELY AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN COULD EASILY FALL... LEADING TO
RAPID RUNOFF AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT ON ANY STREETS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION... STORMS
MAY HOLD IN THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED TIME AS CELLS MAY TEND TO
PROPAGATE BACK TO THE SW... AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP RUNS
SHOWING LOWERING MBE VELOCITIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDS BECOME
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO
70-90% CHANCE EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AS BOTH STORM-SCALE AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITHIN A VOLATILE AND VERY WET COLUMN APPEAR INEVITABLE...
AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COUPLE OF RELATIVE LULLS WITH ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... IT IS DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN WHEN SUCH A LULL MIGHT OCCUR. AND EVEN DURING
TIMES OF LOWER STORM COVERAGE... INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD STILL DROP
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
CLOUDS/TEMPS: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND... AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN
WITH EITHER STRATUS AT NIGHT OR CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. THIS... IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEADY BREEZE FROM THE SSE OR SOUTH... SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH WARM NIGHTS (LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S).
WCENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A DEEP...MOISTURE SOUTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHIFTS ONLY
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS
TO EXPAND. PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES...IF NOT INCREASE ABOVE 2
INCHES ON TUESDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALSO SHIFTS WESTWARD.
MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A WAVE PASSING MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCE PRECIP...BUT GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE
OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THIS PATTERN...ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF QPF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEEP LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CARRIED OUT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AND MAY POSSIBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY IN SOME AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY /SHEAR
DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT. WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...TAILING OFF TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS NC
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....SHIFTING THE PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THUS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
LATEST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN 2-4 HOURS... AND AFFECT THE REGION
FROM 08Z-15Z THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISBYS. FOR NOW WILL
COVER THIS THREAT WITH VCSH IN THE TAFS... AS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE IFR/LOW END MVFR RANGE AT THIS TIME. AFTER 15Z... EXPECT
WE MAY SEE A GENERAL BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH
MORE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER THIS MORNING... IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AGAIN. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND AS
CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR CONTINUED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD... SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING. BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND
WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE RESTRICTED TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS... WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT
AS WELL. WE SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC STARTS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WERE TO BUMP UP
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT IN A FEW AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH SB CAPES OF AROUND
1000J/KG IN THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR
CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND AN UPDATE OF LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES WERE COSMETIC TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST...A SUNNY AND
QUIET MONDAY IS FORECAST.
GIVEN LITTLE SPREAD IN 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WILL UTILIZE A
BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
GREATER PORTION OF THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE 07 UTC HRRR WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00
UTC 4KM WRF...AND 00 UTC NAM/GFS AND 03 UTC SREF. ALL DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
QUICKLY FADE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET WITH A CLEAR AND QUIET
MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEK. 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR
CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE LAS VEGAS CENTERED RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.
BY LATE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DIRECT MORE VIGOROUS
MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING OF THE STRONGEST LOW AMONG 00 UTC
ECMWF/GEFS/GFS/GEM GLOBAL DIFFERS BY UP TO 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S AS
THE POLAR FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
933 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR
CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND AN UPDATE OF LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES WERE COSMETIC TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST...A SUNNY AND
QUIET MONDAY IS FORECAST.
GIVEN LITTLE SPREAD IN 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WILL UTILIZE A
BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
GREATER PORTION OF THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE 07 UTC HRRR WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00
UTC 4KM WRF...AND 00 UTC NAM/GFS AND 03 UTC SREF. ALL DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
QUICKLY FADE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET WITH A CLEAR AND QUIET
MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEK. 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR
CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE LAS VEGAS CENTERED RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.
BY LATE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DIRECT MORE VIGOROUS
MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING OF THE STRONGEST LOW AMONG 00 UTC
ECMWF/GEFS/GFS/GEM GLOBAL DIFFERS BY UP TO 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S AS
THE POLAR FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES WERE COSMETIC TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST...A SUNNY AND
QUIET MONDAY IS FORECAST.
GIVEN LITTLE SPREAD IN 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WILL UTILIZE A
BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
GREATER PORTION OF THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE 07 UTC HRRR WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00
UTC 4KM WRF...AND 00 UTC NAM/GFS AND 03 UTC SREF. ALL DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
QUICKLY FADE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET WITH A CLEAR AND QUIET
MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEK. 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR
CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE LAS VEGAS CENTERED RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.
BY LATE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DIRECT MORE VIGOROUS
MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING OF THE STRONGEST LOW AMONG 00 UTC
ECMWF/GEFS/GFS/GEM GLOBAL DIFFERS BY UP TO 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S AS
THE POLAR FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
409 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST...A SUNNY AND
QUIET MONDAY IS FORECAST.
GIVEN LITTLE SPREAD IN 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WILL UTILIZE A
BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
GREATER PORTION OF THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE 07 UTC HRRR WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00
UTC 4KM WRF...AND 00 UTC NAM/GFS AND 03 UTC SREF. ALL DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
QUICKLY FADE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET WITH A CLEAR AND QUIET
MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEK. 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR
CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE LAS VEGAS CENTERED RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.
BY LATE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DIRECT MORE VIGOROUS
MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING OF THE STRONGEST LOW AMONG 00 UTC
ECMWF/GEFS/GFS/GEM GLOBAL DIFFERS BY UP TO 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S AS
THE POLAR FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1132 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT RUNS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CWA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING...AND 1-3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY UNDER 1.5
INCHES.
THE QUASI STNRY-HARD TO FIND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PRETTY MUCH BISECTS THE STATE FROM NE TO SW. RADAR SHOWS
THE SLOW MOVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA.
WITH THE JET ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN PLACE...AND FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE BEING PRETTY LOW...IT ARGUES FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE
FLASH FLOOD WARNING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW HARD AREAS IN THE
WARNING GOT HIT LATE LAST WEEK.
THE BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS THE RELENTLESS SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING
BASICALLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE LATEST
SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO BE ENTERING THE CAROLINAS...WHICH IS HELPING
INFLUENCE A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...EYES ARE ON A NEW AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU
VIRGINIA HEADING FOR MY SRN ZONES AS THE BROKEN RECORD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES.
FROM EARLIER...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH - 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH
THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM AREAS OF TRAINING SHRA/TSRA.
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD
THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WELL DEFINED
JET ENTRANCE REGION SITUATED ACROSS PENN AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION
AND HELP TO BLOSSOM/MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSRA. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE A TONGUE OF HIGH 925-850 MB THETA-E AIR IS RIDES NWWD
AND IS LIFTED ABOVE THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHICALLY.
THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING TRAINING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES....AND PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT IN CENTRAL PENN.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS
TODAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F.
0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO
CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
FAVORABLE...THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT
FURTHER NORTH/WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER OVER THE
MIDDLE MISS VALLEY RETROGRADES A BIT...AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVES /AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJS...PROVIDING ENHANCED MESOSCALE
UVVEL/ LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN A TEMPORARY
TREND TWD DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...AND LIGHTER SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSRA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-10Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4-5
TENTHS...ACCOUNTING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TAFS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM WITH WILDLY FLUCTUATING CEILINGS AND
VIZ DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE AND ARE NOT. CAN EXPECT
CONTINUED MVFR/IFR OVER NWRN AREAS WHERE RAIN IS ONLY SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...ANYTHING FROM VFR TO IFR AS
NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM AND MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
FCST AREA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT RUNS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CWA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING...AND 1-3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY UNDER 1.5
INCHES.
QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBGM...TO KSEG AND KHGR AT
11Z. THIS FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH - 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF
A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/ TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
FROM AREAS OF TRAINING SHRA/TSRA.
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD
THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WELL DEFINED
JET ENTRANCE REGION SITUATED ACROSS PENN AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION
AND HELP TO BLOSSOM/MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSRA. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE A TONGUE OF HIGH 925-850 MB THETA-E AIR IS RIDES NWWD
AND IS LIFTED ABOVE THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHICALLY.
THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING TRAINING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES....AND PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT IN CENTRAL PENN.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS
TODAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F.
0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO
CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
FAVORABLE...THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT
FURTHER NORTH/WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER OVER THE
MIDDLE MISS VALLEY RETROGRADES A BIT...AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVES /AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJS...PROVIDING ENHANCED MESOSCALE
UVVEL/ LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN A TEMPORARY
TREND TWD DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...AND LIGHTER SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSRA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-10Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4-5
TENTHS...ACCOUNTING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS FOR THE 01/12Z CYCLE.
NMRS SHOWERS WITH OCNL/LCL +TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACRS THE AIRSPACE
TDY AS SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF MS VLY UPPER TROUGH AND WRN ATLC
RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANNELING OF DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW FROM THE
APPLCHNS TO THE EAST COAST...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AXIS OF VERY HIGH
MSTR. EXPECT THE LOCALLY HVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH TO
NORTH - IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TDY. THUS HAVE
INDICATED VCSH/VCTS/SHRA IN ALL TAFS GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WDSPRD CVRG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IN THIS PATTERN
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR/MVFR EARLY
GIVING WAY TO PM MVFR/VFR. IFR VIS WILL BE LKLY IN ANY +RA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
721 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT RUNS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CWA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING...AND 1-3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY UNDER 1.5
INCHES.
QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBGM...TO KSEG AND KHGR AT
11Z. THIS FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH - 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF
A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/ TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
FROM AREAS OF TRAINING SHRA/TSRA.
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD
THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WELL DEFINED
JET ENTRANCE REGION SITUATED ACROSS PENN AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION
AND HELP TO BLOSSOM/MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSRA. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE A TONGUE OF HIGH 925-850 MB THETA-E AIR IS RIDES NWWD
AND IS LIFTED ABOVE THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHICALLY.
THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING TRAINING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES....AND PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT IN CENTRAL PENN.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS
TODAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F.
0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO
CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
FAVORABLE...THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT
FURTHER NORTH/WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER OVER THE
MIDDLE MISS VALLEY RETROGRADES A BIT...AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVES /AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJS...PROVIDING ENHANCED MESOSCALE
UVVEL/ LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN A TEMPORARY
TREND TWD DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...AND LIGHTER SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSRA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-10Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4-5
TENTHS...ACCOUNTING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NMRS SHOWERS WITH OCNL +TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACRS THE AIRSPACE TDY
AS SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF MS VLY UPPER TROUGH AND WRN ATLC
RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANNELING OF DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW FROM THE
APPLCHNS TO THE EAST COAST...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AXIS OF VERY HIGH
MSTR. EXPECT THE LOCALLY HVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH TO
NORTH - IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TDY. THUS HAVE
INDICATED VCSH/VCTS/SHRA IN ALL TAFS GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WDSPRD CVRG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IN THIS PATTERN
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR/MVFR EARLY
GIVING WAY TO PM MVFR/VFR. IFR VIS WILL BE LKLY IN ANY +RA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
610 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE ANOTHER 2-3
LAYERS OF COUNTY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF
THE SUSQUEHANNA...AND EXTENDED TIL 06Z TUESDAY.
QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KELM TO KUNV AND KMRB...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH
THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ WILL ALL COMBINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM RELATIVELY NARROW BANDS OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA.
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD
THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WELL DEFINED
JET ENTRANCE REGION SITUATED ACROSS PENN AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION
AND HELP TO BLOSSOM A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA.
THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING TRAINING SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES....AND PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT
IN CENTRAL PENN.
BASIN AVG RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1.5-2 INCHES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...DOWN TO ONLY AROUND 0.5 INCH ACROSS WARREN COUNTY. NARROW
BANDS OF HEAVIER 3+ INCH AMTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN FOR
ABOUT AN HOUR.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL FALL ANOTHER FEW DEG F...REACHING A MID
MORNING LOW IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THE WARM...EASTERN SIDE OF THE
QUASI STNRY SFC FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA.
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F.
0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO
CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
FAVORABLE...THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT
FURTHER NORTH/WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER OVER THE
MIDDLE MISS VALLEY RETROGRADES A BIT...AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVES /AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJS...PROVIDING ENHANCED MESOSCALE
UVVEL/ LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN A TEMPORARY
TREND TWD DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...AND LIGHTER SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSRA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-10Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4-5
TENTHS...ACCOUNTING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NMRS SHOWERS WITH OCNL +TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACRS THE AIRSPACE TDY
AS SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF MS VLY UPPER TROUGH AND WRN ATLC
RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANNELING OF DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW FROM THE
APPLCHNS TO THE EAST COAST...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AXIS OF VERY HIGH
MSTR. EXPECT THE LOCALLY HVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH TO
NORTH - IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TDY. THUS HAVE
INDICATED VCSH/VCTS/SHRA IN ALL TAFS GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WDSPRD CVRG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IN THIS PATTERN
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR/MVFR EARLY
GIVING WAY TO PM MVFR/VFR. IFR VIS WILL BE LKLY IN ANY +RA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ012-018-019-
026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
557 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...INCREASINGLY HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE ANOTHER 2-3
LAYERS OF COUNTY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF
THE SUSQUEHANNA...AND EXTENDED TIL 06Z TUESDAY.
QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KELM TO KUNV AND KMRB...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH
THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ WILL ALL COMBINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM RELATIVELY NARROW BANDS OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA.
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD
THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR
HEAVY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR
GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS ON SMALL TRIBS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...EAST INTO SCHUYLKILL CTY. THE TAIL END OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES /ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA/ APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING NWD ACROSS LANCASTER CTY ATTM. THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SERN NEW YORK.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST...THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
WILL BE MUCH LOWER AND 0.25 INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL FALL ANOTHER FEW DEG F...REACHING A MID
MORNING LOW IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THE WARM...EASTERN SIDE OF THE
QUASI STNRY SFC FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
A SECOND...POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP THE APPALACHIANS WILL SPREAD
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MONDAY.
SREF AND GEFS BOTH BRING A PWAT ANOMALY OF 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY...ALONG WITH
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH ENS MEAN QPF BTWN
NOW AND THIS AFTN IS A RELATIVELY MODEST 1 INCH OR SO ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
APPEAR VERY LIKELY BASED ON OPER MDL QPF AND PWAT ANOMALIES.
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL BTWN 12Z-18Z OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST 01/00Z OPER AND ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY LOCATED SOMEWHERE BTWN THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY. FFG REMAINS LOW IN THIS AREA...AND SOME MDL
DATA PLACES FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN RIGHT IN THIS AREA.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4KM.
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F.
0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO
CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NMRS SHOWERS WITH OCNL +TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACRS THE AIRSPACE TDY
AS SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF MS VLY UPPER TROUGH AND WRN ATLC
RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANNELING OF DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW FROM THE
APPLCHNS TO THE EAST COAST...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AXIS OF VERY HIGH
MSTR. EXPECT THE LOCALLY HVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH TO
NORTH - IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TDY. THUS HAVE
INDICATED VCSH/VCTS/SHRA IN ALL TAFS GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WDSPRD CVRG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IN THIS PATTERN
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR/MVFR EARLY
GIVING WAY TO PM MVFR/VFR. IFR VIS WILL BE LKLY IN ANY +RA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ012-018-019-
026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
315 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...INCREASINGLY HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE ANOTHER 2-3
LAYERS OF COUNTY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF
THE SUSQUEHANNA...AND EXTENDED TIL 06Z TUESDAY.
QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KELM TO KUNV AND KMRB...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH
THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ WILL ALL COMBINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM RELATIVELY NARROW BANDS OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA.
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD
THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR
HEAVY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR
GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS ON SMALL TRIBS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...EAST INTO SCHUYLKILL CTY. THE TAIL END OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES /ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA/ APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING NWD ACROSS LANCASTER CTY ATTM. THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SERN NEW YORK.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST...THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
WILL BE MUCH LOWER AND 0.25 INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL FALL ANOTHER FEW DEG F...REACHING A MID
MORNING LOW IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THE WARM...EASTERN SIDE OF THE
QUASI STNRY SFC FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
A SECOND...POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP THE APPALACHIANS WILL SPREAD
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MONDAY.
SREF AND GEFS BOTH BRING A PWAT ANOMALY OF 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY...ALONG WITH
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH ENS MEAN QPF BTWN
NOW AND THIS AFTN IS A RELATIVELY MODEST 1 INCH OR SO ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
APPEAR VERY LIKELY BASED ON OPER MDL QPF AND PWAT ANOMALIES.
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL BTWN 12Z-18Z OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST 01/00Z OPER AND ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY LOCATED SOMEWHERE BTWN THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY. FFG REMAINS LOW IN THIS AREA...AND SOME MDL
DATA PLACES FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN RIGHT IN THIS AREA.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4KM.
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F.
0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO
CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RORTAING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...GIVEN ISOLATED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
FROM BWI.
AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SEPERATES THE NE TO N FLOW
NEAR THE LAKES FROM THE S TO SE FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A DAILY CHC OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PW VALUES WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH HUMIDITY
LEVELS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLDS
LATE EACH NIGHT.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT COULD RESULT AS THE RIDGE EDGES WESTWARD
SOME EACH DAY...BUT THIS MAY CAUSE THE MOST WIDSPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE FAR WESTERN AREAS AS WELL.
FOR MONDAY...WENT WITH VCSH DURING THE AFT. AREAS THAT GET
THE MOST HEATING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR.
HAVE NOT HAD MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIDGE DANCERS AT NIGHT SO FAR...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH MOUNTAIN...BUT WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS THIS
WEEK WITH ANY OF THE EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR...BUT STILL WITH AREAS OF LOWER
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ012-018-019-
026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1102 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
APPROACHES...THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN TO OUR EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...NVA BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROF SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
COMBINED WITH COOL CONDITIONS UNDER LOW STRATUS SEEM TO HAVE STIFLED
CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY. LATEST MESO MODEL RUNS INDICATE ONLY ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTN...WITH THE MTNS FAVORED AS USUAL. NEW
12Z NAM AS WELL AS 11Z HRRR INDICATE SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM
EAST TN LATE THIS AFTN...APPARENTLY FORCED BY LOBES OF VORT ON E
SIDE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. DESPITE THE CLOUDS MODEL CAPES NEAR 1000 J
STILL SHOWN OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING PEAK HEATING. NEW POPS SHOW
SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN BECOMING NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER FORCING RETURNS. REVISED TEMP TRENDS...ADJUSTING HIGHS DOWN
SLIGHTLY.
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...DIVIDING RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FROM SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN
THE UPPER TN RIVER VALLEY.
THE MODELS SHOW A RELATIVE DRY SLOT MOVING NORTH OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT TODAY IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER VORT LOBE MOVING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW...AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONFIRMS THIS. THIS DRY
SLOT MAY PROVIDE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IN THE FOOTHILLS...BUT WITH
GREATER MOISTURE TO THE EAST...A LULL SEEMS LESS CERTAIN IN THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR...AND THE FLOOD WATCH THERE WILL BE
MAINTAINED.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...AS WELL
AS SOME UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE
ROUNDS THE UPPER LOW. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A POP MAXIMA ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS...AND ANOTHER IN THE PIEDMONT
NEAR A RIVER OF MOISTURE FED FORM THE SOUTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH.
CAPE WILL BE BEST IN THE EAST...AND SHEAR BEST IN THE WEST...BUT
ENOUGH OVERLAP WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY IN UNDER BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN A
MOIST AIR MASS UNDER CLOUDS COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT BETWEEN A STRONG...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE A FOUND A
RIVER OF EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST AIR. TUE AND TUE NIGHT THE GFS KEEPS
THE STRONGEST LLVL WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS IS WHERE IT
GENERATES THE HEAVIEST PCPN AS WELL. IT LIFTS THIS LLVL JET
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OF VIRGINIA TUE NIGHT
WHILE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA VEERS AROUND TO
THE SSW. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT MUCH LIKE WHAT WE ARE SEEING
TONIGHT...THE FAVORED TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS
ACTIVITY MIGHT BE A LITTLE EAST OF OUR FA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL
BE EXPERIENCING UPSLOPE FLOW AND WE WILL STILL BE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER JET WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
WHILE I HOPE WE MISS MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...THIS
IS BY NO MEANS A SURE BET. EVEN IN THE BEST CASE WE WOULD STILL SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BOTH SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. UNFORTUNATELY THIS PUTS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BUSINESS END OF THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND CORE OF THE STRONGEST LLVL WINDS ALONG WITH PW/S
SURGING WELL OVER 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THOSE LLVL WINDS ARE ONLY ON
THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS...BUT THAT/S PLENTY TO HELP DEVELOP HEAVY
RAIN IN THIS KIND OF TROPICAL PATTERN. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN SOME PARTS OF THE FA. I/VE RAISED POPS
TO 70-80 PERCENT AND ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. IN FACT...I RAN
THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. AT SOME POINT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FARTHER TO THE WEST,..BUT THAT PROBABLY WON/T HAPPEN UNTIL LATER
TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THAT
WILL BE SLOW TO DISSOLVE. BY NEW DAY 7 ON SUN...THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED H5 LOW AND ITS PARENT
UPPER TROF WILL STILL LIKELY BE OBSERVABLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.
THIS IMPLIES THAT THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGES WILL
MAINTAIN THEIR STRUCTURE TO SOME DEGREE BEYOND NEW DAY 7...THEREBY
LEAVING US IN MORE OF A FLAT...ZONAL PATTERN BY THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE.
AT THE SFC...NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
PERIOD AS THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINS ITS CONTROL OVER THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THRU NEW DAY 7. MOIST SELY FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT.
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES WESTWARD...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NW THRU THE PERIOD AND BY NEW DAY
7...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE
SHIFTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WITH THAT SAID...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST. I DO TAPER OFF POPS ON
SAT AND SUN TO CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE. FLOODING WILL BE A MAJOR
CONCERN THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
TEMPS WILL START OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND GRADUALLY WARM TO
NEAR CLIMO AS THICKNESSES INCREASE AND OVERALL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR A TIME THIS MRNG
THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE STRATUS DECK IS BREAKING UP
WITH MIXING. NEWEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
PROMOTING INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO HINTS AT A SECOND ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING. INCLUDED A PROB30 MVFR TSRA FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST.
ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM HAS
PRODUCED A LULL IN PRECIPITATION TODAY. HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY TOWARD DAWN ON TUESDAY. WINDS WIL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...NUMEROUS...MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. WIDESPREAD MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
UNUSUALLY MOIST.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z
KCLT HIGH 93% HIGH 94% HIGH 82% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 95% HIGH 97% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 97% HIGH 98% HIGH 84% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 97% MED 72% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 97% HIGH 97% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 98% HIGH 97% HIGH 92% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-037-
056-057-069>072-082.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1148 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...MOST OF THIS EVENING`S CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED, WITH
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING A FEW PLACES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AM EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT,
WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AT CSV LATER ON. LOOK FOR A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, BUT WITH AN
UPPER LOW STILL SITUATED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
EXPECT STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
EVENING UPDATE...
PESKY UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION HAS
CAUSED EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION...CAUSING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EVEN
SOME MINOR FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS IN PUTNAM COUNTY WITH ONE OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS WANED...BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS EAST OF 65 THROUGH ROUGHLY
MIDNIGHT...THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS THEREAFTER FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA.
EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. UPDATE WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SCATTERED CELLS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE EARLY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE MID STATE. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER DARK, SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH
REMARKS (TEMPO AT CSV) THROUGH 02Z. LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AT CSV. AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON MONDAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
257 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A stretch of hot summer weather will continue through mid week.
Triple digit heat is expected over much of the region on Monday
and Tuesday, and Heat Advisories remain in effect. A cooling trend is
expected Wednesday through Friday, but high temperatures for the
majority of the Inland Northwest will remain above normal through
early next week. The Inland Northwest is expected to remain
generally dry...except for a few thunderstorms mainly over the
mountains during the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Water vapor satellite imagery shows a large
area of high pressure centered just east of the area over western
Montana and southeast Idaho with an upper level trough offshore
near 140w. This strong ridge will promote very hot temperatures
today with highs in the upper 90s to around 105. The hottest
temperatures are expected around the Lewiston area. A heat
advisory remains in effect.
The placement of the ridge will result in a deep southerly flow
through tonight with upper level moisture being drawn northward.
This will be aimed especially at the Cascades beginning this
morning...which combined with elevated instability will generate a
good chance for isolated thunderstorms today primarily from Moses
Lake to Omak westward to the Cascades. The NAM model is most
preferred as it is handling the convection over Central Oregon
this morning much better compared to the GFS and ECMWF models. NAM
shows most unstable CAPE values of 200-400 J/KG with some weak
lift over North Central Washington. Some mid level moisture/instability
will also move into Eastern Washington and North Idaho with
afternoon with elevated CAPE values as high as 100 J/KG but this
most likely will not be enough to generate any convection. For
tonight another band of elevated moisture/instability will be
oriented from Central Oregon northeast into the Blue Mountains and
Lewiston area. The NAM shows elevated CAPE values of 300-700 J/KG
but with some CIN to overcome. Without any kicker to penetrate
through this layer convection is not expected and will continue
with a dry forecast. JW
.Tuesday through Thursday night...Looks like one more very hot day
awaits the Inland Northwest as abnormally strong upper level
ridge holds strong over the western US on Tuesday. The big
question is will Tuesday be warmer than Monday. 500 mb heights
will fall 1-2 decameters however the usually accurate 850-700 mb
thickness values suggest the cooling will be slight at best. Highs
still should still make the mid 90s to around 105 with the hottest
values expected over the lower Columbia Basin and Snake River
Valley. While these temperatures won`t generally exceed the
records for the date...they will be near over most locations. The
other question to ponder for Tuesday will be the risk of
thunderstorms. Model guidance is consistent on keeping the best
moisture and potential instability over extreme SE Washington and
into the central Idaho Panhandle. If the NAM is correct we will
see SBCAPE values ranging from 2500-4000 j/kg which is awfully
high for this region while CIN values will generally be less than
30 in that area. To attain these lofty values...the NAM is
producing dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s...which seems
awfully high...however if convection forms overnight Monday in
eastern Oregon and surges northward during the day it could be
possible. Given the NAM parameters...there would also be a small
chance of severe thunderstorms over this area if everything came
to fruition. The only thing lacking is a well-defined upper level
shortwave to overcome the CIN layer. As such...we suspect isolated
convection could form over the higher terrain from the Blue
Mountains NE toward the Clearwaters more akin to the GFS and
ECMWF.
By Wednesday and Thursday the ridge will undergo a significant
dampening over the PacNW as longwave trough axis currently along
140w will split into two sections with the northern portion
shifting through southern BC Tuesday evening. This passage will
result in more of a zonal flow pattern over the Inland NW with
much drier air spilling over the Cascades. This will result in a
much lesser chance of showers and thunderstorms as the
precipitable water values decrease from 150% of normal on Tuesday
to near 100% on Thursday. If thunder were to occur on either of
the two days the likely scenario would place the threat over the
Camas Prairie to the Clearwaters. More likely will be increasing
winds...especially in the lee of the Cascades on Tuesday evening
and across the remainder of the region on Wednesday. It does not
look like we will be dealing with windy conditions as 850 speeds
max out around 20 kts. Temperatures should cool both days as
850-700 mb thickness values continue to drop...however readings
will likely remain above normal with highs generally in the 90s on
Wednesday and into the mid 80s to mid 90s on Thursday. fx
.Friday through Sunday Night: Through this time frame we will see
temperatures start to flatten out a bit as the upper level flow
becomes a zonal/ slight trough pattern. Much of the moisture in
this flow looks to be limited for our region as an upper level
cutoff low in the Pacific intercepts most of it leaving us with a
generally dry period. The main part of the associated trough will
pass to our north leaving us with some very limited instability
mainly on the USA/BC border and then transitioning to the N Idaho/
Montana border late Friday into Saturday. I did leave slight
chance mention of t-storms in the higher elevations corresponding
to the mentioned areas but any storms that do form will be weaker
and likely short lived in nature. Other than the slight
chances...precipitation chances look very minimal for the entire
forecast area.
As the trough pushes to the east a ridge looks to build in behind
it which will further increase our chances of staying mainly sunny
and dry. The one factor that could introduce increased moisture would
be if a strong monsoonal push of moisture was to come up the ridge
from the Southwest and into our area. Models are not in agreement
of anything of this nature...but it will be something to monitor
if this ridge scenario would set up.
Overall conditions look pleasant in this period with temps in the
80s and lower 90s for most valley locations and slightly cooler
for the higher elevations with limited cloud cover. Some breezy
wind conditions may be present Friday..but should not be anything
of major significance. /Fliehman
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...Expect an incr in mid and high clouds across Lewiston and
Pullman btwn 6-12z as decaying cluster of thunderstorms tracks
northward through Ern OR. HRRR model suggest this surface based
convection will dissipate upon reaching SE WA arnd 11z. Otherwise...
mid and high level moisture trickling up the western periphery of a
ridge in place will bring increasing midlevel clouds aft 15z with a
slight chance for elevated -tsra along the spine of the Cascades and
vcnty of KEAT. Cigs with this activity will generally be 10-15K AGL
and confidence is too low to include in TAF. Additionally...a brief
period of winds incr 10-13kts is expected at KCOE during the early
morning. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 98 70 99 67 93 61 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 98 66 96 66 92 61 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Pullman 99 65 97 63 92 57 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Lewiston 105 73 104 71 99 66 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Colville 101 64 101 61 96 59 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 95 60 95 61 91 56 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Kellogg 96 65 94 65 91 60 / 0 10 20 20 10 10
Moses Lake 104 71 104 68 99 63 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 100 73 101 70 95 65 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 101 68 103 65 97 62 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from Noon today to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Heat Advisory from Noon today to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for East
Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1041 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A stretch of hot summer weather will continue through the week.
Triple digit heat is expected over much of the region on Monday
and Tuesday, and Heat Advisories are in effect. Temperatures are
expected to remain above average Wednesday through Friday, but
high temperatures for the majority of the Inland Northwest will
moderate into the 80s by the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Minor update this evening to increase skies some
across extreme southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle. This is
largely to account for convective debris spreading from
thunderstorm activity tracking north through eastern Oregon.
The main cluster of thunderstorms are still south of Baker, OR but
satellite reveals cirrus already extending into the Blue Mtns and
this trend will likely continue as HRRR indicates the storms will
hold together for a few hours before dissipating around 9z.
00z guidance in conjunction with water vapor imagery continues to
bring midlevel moisture and instability up the spine of the
Cascades early Monday morning. Unlike Saturday morning, there is
not a clear lifting mechanism or shortwave that will be present to
utilize the 100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE within the 700-500mb layer and
confidence is not exceptionally high that thunderstorms will
materialize. Needless to say, models continue to bring spotty QPF
to portions of southern Chelan County and points south between
12-18z Monday so will leave the 20 PoP inherited however this does
not look as promising as Saturday`s event. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...Expect an incr in mid and high clouds across Lewiston and
Pullman btwn 6-12z as decaying cluster of thunderstorms tracks
northward through Ern OR. HRRR model suggest this surface based
convection will dissipate upon reaching SE WA arnd 11z. Otherwise...
mid and high level moisture trickling up the western periphery of a
ridge in place will bring increasing midlevel clouds aft 15z with a
slight chance for elevated -tsra along the spine of the Cascades and
vcnty of KEAT. Cigs with this activity will generally be 10-15K AGL
and confidence is too low to include in TAF. Additionally...a brief
period of winds incr 10-13kts is expected at KCOE during the early
morning. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 66 99 70 99 67 94 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 64 98 67 98 65 94 / 0 0 10 10 10 0
Pullman 60 99 66 97 63 93 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Lewiston 69 105 73 103 71 99 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Colville 62 101 66 103 62 98 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 57 96 62 97 62 91 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Kellogg 61 96 66 96 65 93 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Moses Lake 66 104 71 105 68 99 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 70 100 73 102 70 96 / 0 20 10 10 0 0
Omak 66 101 69 103 64 98 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for East
Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
941 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A stretch of hot summer weather will continue through the week.
Triple digit heat is expected over much of the region on Monday
and Tuesday, and Heat Advisories are in effect. Temperatures are
expected to remain above average Wednesday through Friday, but
high temperatures for the majority of the Inland Northwest will
moderate into the 80s by the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Minor update this evening to increase skies some
across extreme southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle. This is
largely to account for convective debris spreading from
thunderstorm activity tracking north through eastern Oregon.
The main cluster of thunderstorms are still south of Baker, OR but
satellite reveals cirrus already extending into the Blue Mtns and
this trend will likely continue as HRRR indicates the storms will
hold together for a few hours before dissipating around 9z.
00z guidance in conjunction with water vapor imagery continues to
bring midlevel moisture and instability up the spine of the
Cascades early Monday morning. Unlike Saturday morning, there is
not a clear lifting mechanism or shortwave that will be present to
utilize the 100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE within the 700-500mb layer and
confidence is not exceptionally high that thunderstorms will
materialize. Needless to say, models continue to bring spotty QPF
to portions of southern Chelan County and points south between
12-18z Monday so will leave the 20 PoP inherited however this does
not look as promising as Saturday`s event. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A ridge of high pressure will be the dominate feature
over the Inland NW through 00z Tue promoting VFR skies and light
winds for most terminals. The one aviation concern will be a
shallow surge of monsoonal moisture trickling up the western
periphery of the ridge leading to increasing midlevel clouds aft
15z. The heart of the moisture tracks up the spine of the Cascades
and could bring an isolated elevated shower or thunderstorm vcnty of
KEAT. Cigs with this activity will generally be 10-15K AGL. There
will also be a brief period of winds incr 10-13kts at KCOE during
the early morning. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 66 99 70 99 67 94 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 64 98 67 98 65 94 / 0 0 10 10 10 0
Pullman 60 99 66 97 63 93 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Lewiston 69 105 73 103 71 99 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Colville 62 101 66 103 62 98 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 57 96 62 97 62 91 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Kellogg 61 96 66 96 65 93 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Moses Lake 66 104 71 105 68 99 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 70 100 73 102 70 96 / 0 20 10 10 0 0
Omak 66 101 69 103 64 98 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for East
Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1047 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SHORTWAVE PRODUCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING IS GOING TO PIVOT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDINGS OFFICES AT THE MOMENT. HOPE TO HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES OUT BY 945 PM.
.
UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SHOWERS MORE NUMEROUS ON RADAR THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING INTO
MANITOWOC COUNTY. HAVE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING BASED ON
LATEST RUC WHICH DEPICTS PRECIPITATION WORKING AS FAR NORTH AS
DOOR COUNTY...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE TIER OF COUNTY WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. NEW ZONES/GRIDS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND VARIOUS IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS NNE UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS ARE MOVING
NORTHWEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...AND A FEW HAVE
BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR ON THE WEST SIDE
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE ARE MORE
ROBUST...PERHAPS DUE TO BETTER FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
THAT AREA. CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE RETROGRADING WEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BADGER STATE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MARCH THEIR WAY TO THE WEST AS WELL WITH CLOUDS THICKENING
AND LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED SKY
COVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGE. THE CURRENT AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION IS QUITE DRY BUT THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS ESSENTIALLY A
RESULT FROM A CHANGE IN AIR MASS ALOFT SO DO NOT THINK THE DRY AIR
WILL FEND OFF THE INCOMING MOISTURE. THIS MAKES PRECIP FORECASTING
PROBLEMATIC...SINCE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 800MB. DO
NOT REALLY TRUST GOING DRY TONIGHT ONCE THIS MOISTURE ALOFT
ARRIVES...SO WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM E-C WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHERN DOOR COUNTY. LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
TONIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD...BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE SOUTH AND ALSO EAST
OF THE AREA...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO RELY ON DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE SHOWERS. WILL EXPAND THE PRECIP MENTION BACK INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE 12Z MODELS PROG THE INSTABILITY TO REACH 300-500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO FROM TODAYS HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY
EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER TIMING ISSUES WITH SYSTEMS IN WESTERLIES
ALONG NORTHERN TIER STATE BEGIN. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ENSEMBLE SUN
ONWARD.
WEAK UPPER TROF TO REMAIN OVER REGION EARLY IN PERIOD. WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS. WILL LEAVE FRI DRY ATTM THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN TO BE LATE IN WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS DOWN AND LINGER WEAK FRONT
OVER STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO AREA. MODEST
INSTABILITY MAINLY SURFACE BASED AS UPPER LAPSE RATES NOT OVERLY
STEEP. PWATS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 1.5 IN. SHEAR
INCREASES A BIT...THOUGH MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME LIKELY HEAVY
RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO MID 80S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND AN UPPER LOW TRIGGERED SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WERE HEADING
NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS COULD MAKE INTO KATW/KGRB BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. THINK WRF MODEL OVERDONE ON
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST 00Z GFS SIMILAR TOO
ITS PREVIOUS RUN...THEREFORE THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE 06Z TAFS AT KAUW/KRHI/KCWA DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME EAST OR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........ECKBERG
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
913 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SHORTWAVE PRODUCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING IS GOING TO PIVOT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDINGS OFFICES AT THE MOMENT. HOPE TO HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES OUT BY 945 PM.
.
UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SHOWERS MORE NUMEROUS ON RADAR THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING INTO
MANITOWOC COUNTY. HAVE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING BASED ON
LATEST RUC WHICH DEPICTS PRECIPITATION WORKING AS FAR NORTH AS
DOOR COUNTY...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE TIER OF COUNTY WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. NEW ZONES/GRIDS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND VARIOUS IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS NNE UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS ARE MOVING
NORTHWEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...AND A FEW HAVE
BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR ON THE WEST SIDE
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE ARE MORE
ROBUST...PERHAPS DUE TO BETTER FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
THAT AREA. CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE RETROGRADING WEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BADGER STATE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MARCH THEIR WAY TO THE WEST AS WELL WITH CLOUDS THICKENING
AND LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED SKY
COVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGE. THE CURRENT AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION IS QUITE DRY BUT THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS ESSENTIALLY A
RESULT FROM A CHANGE IN AIR MASS ALOFT SO DO NOT THINK THE DRY AIR
WILL FEND OFF THE INCOMING MOISTURE. THIS MAKES PRECIP FORECASTING
PROBLEMATIC...SINCE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 800MB. DO
NOT REALLY TRUST GOING DRY TONIGHT ONCE THIS MOISTURE ALOFT
ARRIVES...SO WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM E-C WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHERN DOOR COUNTY. LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
TONIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD...BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE SOUTH AND ALSO EAST
OF THE AREA...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO RELY ON DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE SHOWERS. WILL EXPAND THE PRECIP MENTION BACK INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE 12Z MODELS PROG THE INSTABILITY TO REACH 300-500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO FROM TODAYS HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY
EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER TIMING ISSUES WITH SYSTEMS IN WESTERLIES
ALONG NORTHERN TIER STATE BEGIN. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ENSEMBLE SUN
ONWARD.
WEAK UPPER TROF TO REMAIN OVER REGION EARLY IN PERIOD. WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS. WILL LEAVE FRI DRY ATTM THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN TO BE LATE IN WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS DOWN AND LINGER WEAK FRONT
OVER STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO AREA. MODEST
INSTABILITY MAINLY SURFACE BASED AS UPPER LAPSE RATES NOT OVERLY
STEEP. PWATS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 1.5 IN. SHEAR
INCREASES A BIT...THOUGH MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME LIKELY HEAVY
RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO MID 80S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKESHORE. EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD
BACK MORE NORTHERLY FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...
AND SMALL CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........ECKBERG
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
645 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE AND UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...SHOWERS MORE NUMEROUS ON RADAR THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING INTO
MANITOWOC COUNTY. HAVE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING BASED ON
LATEST RUC WHICH DEPICTS PRECIPITATION WORKING AS FAR NORTH AS DOOR
COUNTY...AND AS FAR WEST AS THE TIER OF COUNTY WEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. NEW ZONES/GRIDS ALREADY OUT.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND VARIOUS IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS NNE UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS ARE MOVING
NORTHWEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...AND A FEW HAVE
BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR ON THE WEST SIDE
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE ARE MORE
ROBUST...PERHAPS DUE TO BETTER FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
THAT AREA. CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE RETROGRADING WEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BADGER STATE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MARCH THEIR WAY TO THE WEST AS WELL WITH CLOUDS THICKENING
AND LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED SKY
COVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGE. THE CURRENT AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION IS QUITE DRY BUT THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS ESSENTIALLY A
RESULT FROM A CHANGE IN AIR MASS ALOFT SO DO NOT THINK THE DRY AIR
WILL FEND OFF THE INCOMING MOISTURE. THIS MAKES PRECIP FORECASTING
PROBLEMATIC...SINCE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 800MB. DO
NOT REALLY TRUST GOING DRY TONIGHT ONCE THIS MOISTURE ALOFT
ARRIVES...SO WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM E-C WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHERN DOOR COUNTY. LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
TONIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD...BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE SOUTH AND ALSO EAST
OF THE AREA...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO RELY ON DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE SHOWERS. WILL EXPAND THE PRECIP MENTION BACK INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE 12Z MODELS PROG THE INSTABILITY TO REACH 300-500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO FROM TODAYS HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY
EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER TIMING ISSUES WITH SYSTEMS IN WESTERLIES
ALONG NORTHERN TIER STATE BEGIN. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ENSEMBLE SUN
ONWARD.
WEAK UPPER TROF TO REMAIN OVER REGION EARLY IN PERIOD. WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS. WILL LEAVE FRI DRY ATTM THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN TO BE LATE IN WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS DOWN AND LINGER WEAK FRONT
OVER STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO AREA. MODEST
INSTABILITY MAINLY SURFACE BASED AS UPPER LAPSE RATES NOT OVERLY
STEEP. PWATS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 1.5 IN. SHEAR
INCREASES A BIT...THOUGH MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME LIKELY HEAVY
RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO MID 80S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKESHORE. EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD
BACK MORE NORTHERLY FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...
AND SMALL CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
442 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST COVER THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. MOSINEE...KCWA...DID
REPORT -RA IN THE PAST HALF HOUR...SO THE PRECIPITATION IS
REACHING THE GROUND. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THE RUNS FROM
THE UP OF MICHIGAN DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS AS
WELL WITH SOME SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN RUNNING INTO SOME MORE NORTHERLY WINDS IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE 01.20 HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT...THOUGH
OVERDONE...COMPARISON TO RADAR AND SHOWS THESE SHOWERS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
WANES ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
CONDITIONS...BUT GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW BRIEF GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30KTS OR SO WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ANOTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN BETWEEN...A CUT OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE 01.12Z MODEL SUITE WHICH CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS FORCES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THESE WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY WEAK
FORCING OVER THE REGION WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING THESE
WAVES WITH LESS THAN 4 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE LACKING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE RIGHT OVER
THE AREA BRINGING A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS MAY BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH THE
COLD CORE ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 6
AND 7 C/KM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN BY LATE AFTERNOON TO AID IN
THE INSTABILITY. CAPES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS TO BE A TALL SKINNY CAPE. ENOUGH THOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO REAL
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND STARTS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH SOME LOW END CAPE TO POP SOME
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND WILL SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THAT...ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN
THE PROCESS OF MERGING INTO ONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS TEND TO TAKE FRONTS TOO FAR SOUTH IN
THESE PATTERNS SO HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
AREA REMAINS QUIET BETWEEN UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER NORTHERN STATES AND
CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER MID MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PROMPT SOME MID DAY CUMULUS BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOME LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF SITES AT ALL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
536 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP DEPICTED A HIGH AMPLIFIED STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NOAM WITH A HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WERE
TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED.
A FEW TSTORMS THAT FORMED AROUND MIDDAY BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND
KIMBALL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS
FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
PREVAILING WINDS WERE VARIABLE 10 MPH OR LESS...OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 20 MPH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWLY RETROGRADES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER LOW/TROUGH SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM.
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NAM DOES SPREAD SOME CONVECTION AND LIGHT QPF INTO WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND ECWMF
KEEP THIS MOISTURE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL WYOMING. AT THIS TIME...WILL
OPT FOR A DRY FORECAST. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM
TODAY...RANGING FROM 11 TO 15C. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A TAD MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WINDS DURING THE
SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND WILL
PASS TO THE EAST FOR FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE TO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE WILL SPARK OFF MAINLY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW STORMS LOOKING TO SNEAK OFF
INTO THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AS EASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART AND MODELS SHOW THE ACTIVITY ENDING BY
EARLY EVENING. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CWA FOR FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE AS
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADVECTS IN MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. EASTERLY RETURN
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVER THE REGION. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST FOR SUNDAY...ALBEIT WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
ANALYZED FOR THIS DAY. THEREFORE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER TSTORMS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. ANOTHER BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
ENERGY AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WITH A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ON RADAR EAST OF KCYS THIS EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MARGINALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE UPPER HIGH SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
WILL SHIFT WINDS ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL DRAW MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE DISTRICTS...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...MAZUR
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 PM MST TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEVADA IS PROJECTED
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND MOVE SOUTH INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE RUC CONTINUES SO ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT FROM ABOUT WINSLOW EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AND DOWN INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. JUST
UPDATED FORECAST TO CONTINUE PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THESE
AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /345 PM MST/...A MOIST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN AZ STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN A MAJOR
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER WERE DRY
ADIABATIC...RESULTING IN MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES. STORMS IN THE
FLAGSTAFF AREA HAVE PRODUCED 1 INCH HAIL...WITH A REPORT OF 1.5 INCH
HAIL AT KACHINA VILLAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO BEEN IMPRESSIVE
IN LOCALIZED AREAS...UP TO 1.5 INCHES SO FAR AT FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD...REACHING YAVAPAI AND NRN GILA COUNTY.
THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE
STORM ACTIVITY...THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT OVER AND THEN EVENTUALLY EAST OF ARIZONA. THIS
COULD PLACE OUR REGION IN A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MONSOON
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. POPS TREND UP SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL BY A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLD-SCT TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST
OF A KPRC-KPGA LINE. GUSTS TO 45KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.
ISOLD-SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM PRIMARILY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...BRINGING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS BUT
ALSO A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC.........MAS/JJ
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...DJO
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
338 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NEAR I-64 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR KMVN...AND IT MAY BE
FORCING THIS SHALLOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT. ALREADY ADDED 20-30 POPS
OVER THIS REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW THE CURRENT ACTIVITY PRETTY WELL...AND
THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR THIS ZONE OF
SHOWERS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE WABASH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KEPT POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT IN A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BAND THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING SHOULD BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TAP SOME DEEP MOISTURE AND
DRAG IT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA IN
THE FORM SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING JUST OFF THE
SURFACE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
BE BACKED TO EASTERLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL...THE SOUNDINGS LOOK RATHER
TROPICAL...EXCEPT THE MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. LOOK FOR
ALOT OF SHOWERS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE PENNYRILE BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PENNYRILE AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH THE DAY. NOT SURE
JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL BE...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF/WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HOW FAR WEST THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A RATHER WET...DREARY DAY OVER THE PENNYRILE AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
THE FAR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND BY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WESTWARD ALL THE WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. AS THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
GENERAL DRYING TREND/LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY FRIDAY...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER TO NEARLY DUE SOUTH AND
THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT/DISCERNIBLE DISTURBANCE TO FOCUS
CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL EVENT FRIDAY. WILL
POST 50 POPS IN THE FAR EAST AND TAPER TO SLIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WOULD EXPECT THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FRIDAY TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE IMPACT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...WITH WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA SEEING THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
POPS/WEATHER. GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERS...THE IMPRESSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIXED ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH POP/WEATHER CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRECLUDES ANY ONE LOCATION SEEING MUCH MORE
THAN FIFTY PERCENT COVERAGE. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN
OVER THE AREA...THERMAL DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BECOME MINIMIZED AS EQUILIBRIUM IS ESTABLISHED. THE COMBINATION OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW /INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR/ INTO THE
AREA...INSOLATION AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN SHEAR WILL LEAD TO
GREATER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.
BY NEXT MONDAY...THE BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERS COMBINED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH FASTER ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WESTERLIES AND MINOR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW...TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FIELDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH TIME DUE TO WEAK FLOW
AND SUBSIDENCE.
JUST BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...GOING TOWARD JULY
11-12...THERE COULD BE A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT...AS THE WESTERLIES DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
IT LOOKS LIKE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL WIN OUT OVER FOG THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER KEVV IN THE
NEXT HOUR AND WILL LIKELY REACH KOWB BY AROUND 08Z. GUIDANCE
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL
14Z-16Z. KCGI IS CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW AND WILL LIKELY BE THE
LAST TO LOSE THE LOW CLOUDS.
LOOKING FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO MIX OUT AND LEAVE BEHIND A SCATTERED
3-4KFT DECK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
FLIRT WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT DO NOT FEEL MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL SUFFICIENTLY TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
A MODEST SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MIX DOWN AT KOWB AND KEVV THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT GUIDANCE AT KPAH AND KCGI IS WAFFLING FROM
WEST SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL SITES THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
152 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND HAVE SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TO
INCREASE POPS UP THE I-75 CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND TO
REINTRODUCE THUNDER AS NLDN PLOTS HAVE SHOWN A FEW STRIKES JUST
SOUTH OF THE KY/TN BORDER RECENTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO
OUR SOUTH APPEAR POISED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND REGION OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING NORTH INTO TENNESSEE SO
WOULD EXPECT THIS TO FORCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY. JUST SENT ALONG A QUICK UPDATE TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. STILL HELD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER BACK IN THOUGH DESPITE THE FEW STRIKES OVER THE
PLATEAU TO OUR SOUTH. HOPEFULLY...THESE WONT SNEAK OVER THE
LINE...BUT WILL MONITOR. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE...BUT HAVE NOT DISAPPEARED. POP FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 20 PERCENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 859 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATED EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REVISE EVENING POP GRIDS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL LOOK FOR MOST PRECIP TO DIE OUT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND THE 18Z NAM BOTH SHOWED SOME SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT AROUND DAWN. HAVE PLACED THE 00Z-12Z POP IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CAPPING IS IN PLACE
ACCORDING TO LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME RISING ABOVE THIS WARM LAYER
/AROUND 12K FEET/ AND AS A RESULT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SAW SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN
SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER THE PREVIOUS HOURS...YET LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...JUST WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ONE
SHOWER HAS BEEN ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE WARM LAYER AND CONTINUE TO
GROW...PRODUCING SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NWS OFFICE. THE
QUESTION THEN IS...AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...HOW MUCH WILL THIS WARM LAYER BE ERODED AND HOW MANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH AND
MODIFYING THE SOUNDING. IF THIS IS ABLE TO OCCUR...SOME EVENING TSRA
COULD TAP INTO THE BEST INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NOT ONLY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT HIGH WINDS
AND HAIL AS WELL.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST WEEK...MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WILL
LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
BECOME AS WIDESPREAD OR THICK AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.
NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AT A MUCH BETTER SET UP FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LESS OF A MID LEVEL WARMING CAP IN PLACE...AND
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD...GIVING A PREFERRED
ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT AND INSTABILITY. ALSO...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST...EASTERN KY
WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
BRINGING UP A RIVER OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
AVAILABILITY OF WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A RAINY
AFTERNOON AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS AT BAY /AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
AREA/. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO PREVENT DRY
MID/UPPER LEVELS...CUTTING DOWN ON HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SOME OF
THE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL. EXPECT STORM MOTION TO REMAIN NEARLY
SOUTH TO NORTH...INCREASING DURING THE DAY IN COVERAGE AS BEST
MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER IN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO GAIN MORE INFLUENCE LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO ENTER THE AREA AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE BEST BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO MOVE OFF
THE THE EAST...BUT A SMALL BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...SO LINGERING SHOWERS EVEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE THE SOAKER PER SAY THAT IT WAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AT 50H THU MORNING WITH STRONG RIDGES
LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SANDWICHING
A SHARP TROF OVER THE ERN PLAINS. THE FLOW FROM THE SW AT 50H AND SFC
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE OHIO/TENN VALLEY.
DEW POINT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN CHECK WITH FOG NEARLY EVERY NIGHT. FOG
SHOULD BE MAINLY RESTRICTED TO THE VALLEYS AND MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE
AIRPORTS NOT ON THE RIDGE TOPS. BY FRI AFTERNOON THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE OZARKS BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND CLIMB THRU THE GREAT LAKES IN
PIECES WITH ONE PIECE FRI NIGHT. THE REMAINING LOW BECOMES CUT OF
OVER MISSOURI AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
NRN CONUS BORDER. THE CUT OFF LOW FINALLY GETS PICKED UP IN THE FAST
ZONAL FLOW BY TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN
MTNS. AT THE SFC THE SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WITH QUIETER PERIODS
OVERNIGHT. THIS DIRTY RIDGE AT THE SFC WILL KEEP ERN KY IN A WET
PATTERN BUT THE AIRBORNE WATER VAPOR WILL ALSO ABSORB MUCH OF THE DAY
TIME HEATING THRU A DEEPER LAYER. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY HOLD BNDRY
LAYER HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HARD TO TIME DISTURBANCES ROTATE NORTHWARD
AROUND AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE IS FORCING A
BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP THE I-75
CORRIDOR FROM TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT AND THESE WILL AFFECT LOZ AND
POSSIBLY SME BETWEEN 0630Z AND DAWN. BEYOND THAT...WILL HAVE TO
BROAD BRUSH A VCTS/VCSH MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
DESPITE INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...TIMING THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO A GIVEN LOCATION WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY LEVEL OF CERTAINTY. WHERE STORMS DO HIT...THEY WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATES...HAL/ABE
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1231 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO
OUR SOUTH APPEAR POISED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND REGION OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING NORTH INTO TENNESSEE SO
WOULD EXPECT THIS TO FORCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON WEDNESDAY. JUST SENT ALONG A QUICK UPDATE TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. STILL HELD OFF ON
ADDING THUNDER BACK IN THOUGH DESPITE THE FEW STRIKES OVER THE
PLATEAU TO OUR SOUTH. HOPEFULLY...THESE WONT SNEAK OVER THE
LINE...BUT WILL MONITOR. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE...BUT HAVE NOT DISAPPEARED. POP FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 20 PERCENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 859 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATED EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REVISE EVENING POP GRIDS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WILL LOOK FOR MOST PRECIP TO DIE OUT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND THE 18Z NAM BOTH SHOWED SOME SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT AROUND DAWN. HAVE PLACED THE 00Z-12Z POP IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CAPPING IS IN PLACE
ACCORDING TO LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME RISING ABOVE THIS WARM LAYER
/AROUND 12K FEET/ AND AS A RESULT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SAW SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN
SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER THE PREVIOUS HOURS...YET LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...JUST WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ONE
SHOWER HAS BEEN ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE WARM LAYER AND CONTINUE TO
GROW...PRODUCING SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NWS OFFICE. THE
QUESTION THEN IS...AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...HOW MUCH WILL THIS WARM LAYER BE ERODED AND HOW MANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH AND
MODIFYING THE SOUNDING. IF THIS IS ABLE TO OCCUR...SOME EVENING TSRA
COULD TAP INTO THE BEST INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE NOT ONLY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT HIGH WINDS
AND HAIL AS WELL.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST WEEK...MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WILL
LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
BECOME AS WIDESPREAD OR THICK AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.
NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING AT A MUCH BETTER SET UP FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LESS OF A MID LEVEL WARMING CAP IN PLACE...AND
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD...GIVING A PREFERRED
ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT AND INSTABILITY. ALSO...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST...EASTERN KY
WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
BRINGING UP A RIVER OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
AVAILABILITY OF WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A RAINY
AFTERNOON AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS AT BAY /AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
AREA/. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO PREVENT DRY
MID/UPPER LEVELS...CUTTING DOWN ON HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SOME OF
THE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL. EXPECT STORM MOTION TO REMAIN NEARLY
SOUTH TO NORTH...INCREASING DURING THE DAY IN COVERAGE AS BEST
MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER IN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO GAIN MORE INFLUENCE LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO ENTER THE AREA AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE BEST BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO MOVE OFF
THE THE EAST...BUT A SMALL BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN...SO LINGERING SHOWERS EVEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IT WILL
NOT BE QUITE THE SOAKER PER SAY THAT IT WAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AT 50H THU MORNING WITH STRONG RIDGES
LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SANDWICHING
A SHARP TROF OVER THE ERN PLAINS. THE FLOW FROM THE SW AT 50H AND SFC
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE OHIO/TENN VALLEY.
DEW POINT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN CHECK WITH FOG NEARLY EVERY NIGHT. FOG
SHOULD BE MAINLY RESTRICTED TO THE VALLEYS AND MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE
AIRPORTS NOT ON THE RIDGE TOPS. BY FRI AFTERNOON THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE OZARKS BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND CLIMB THRU THE GREAT LAKES IN
PIECES WITH ONE PIECE FRI NIGHT. THE REMAINING LOW BECOMES CUT OF
OVER MISSOURI AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
NRN CONUS BORDER. THE CUT OFF LOW FINALLY GETS PICKED UP IN THE FAST
ZONAL FLOW BY TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN
MTNS. AT THE SFC THE SW FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WITH QUIETER PERIODS
OVERNIGHT. THIS DIRTY RIDGE AT THE SFC WILL KEEP ERN KY IN A WET
PATTERN BUT THE AIRBORNE WATER VAPOR WILL ALSO ABSORB MUCH OF THE DAY
TIME HEATING THRU A DEEPER LAYER. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY HOLD BNDRY
LAYER HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 859 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHICH FUELED THEM. LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG WILL
THEN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...TIMING THEM AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS
POINT. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BRING IFR WHERE THEY
PASS...AND LOCALIZED IFR IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM THE VALLEY FOG.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND FOG...MAINLY VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATES...HAL/ABE
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
546 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY...AS A BERMUDA
HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z/03 JUL KIAD RAOB INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEAR 2
INCHES. MODELS KEEP SIMILARLY HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST. RESULT IS BROAD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY OR DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...HIGH MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN H5 FLOW
COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
AT 07Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED ONE BATCH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...POISED TO MOVE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN EXPANDING OUTWARD WITH
TIME. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE STRATIFORM THE FURTHER
NORTH IT GETS...BUT COULD RESULT IN SOME PONDING OF WATER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ITS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
MOST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY WILL SET UP. THIS MAY OCCUR IN AREAS OF LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD SREFS/HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...FAVORING LIKELY POPS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND
WESTWARD...AND THEN CHANCE FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE BAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF SUCH ACTIVITY
AND THE FACT THAT ANY FLOODING MAY BE LOCALIZED...DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AS LINGERING ACTIVITY
WANES...AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH MOST MODELS/SREFS SUGGESTING A
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FAVORED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS. THERE WAS A SEVERAL DEGREE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE HIGHER
MAV/COOLER MET FOR TODAY AND THE BLEND WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE...THEN
WERE SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION MAY NOT
BE AS STRONG DUE TO LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH.
ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE EACH
DAY FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY AND ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
BREAKS DOWN DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE
LEANED CLOSER TOWARD THE EURO WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE A BIT
LONGER. EITHER WAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN MORE THAN ANTICIPATED
THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING REGARDING CIGS. RIBBON OF
MAINLY IFR CIGS EXISTS FROM CHO UP TOWARD IAD...WITH VFR OUTSIDE OF
THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA THROUGH
SUNRISE...WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS DROPPING TO JUST MVFR MAINLY AFT
09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH LAMP VSBYS
ARE TOO LOW AND GENERALLY KEPT PREVAILING P6SM IN TAFS. ANOTHER
CONSIDERATION THROUGH SUNRISE WILL BE THE AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA THAT WILL MOVE NORTH WITH TIME...WHICH COULD IMPACT BOTH
CIGS/VSBYS. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS PREVAILING SHRA AFT 15Z...BUT
WILL HAVE TO AMEND TAFS IF RADAR TRENDS HOLD WITH THE INITIAL BATCH
OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY AFFECTING IAD/DCA AFT 09Z. HRRR SUGGESTS BWI
COULD BE AFFECTED TOO.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE TERMINALS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME
ALONG WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY BR/FOG MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD END UP DRY DUE TO
A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HAVE CANCELLED MUCH OF THE
SCA ONLY LEAVING THE BAY FROM DRUM POINT TO SMITH POINT AND THE
TANGIER SOUND AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD TURN OUT DRY DUE TO A
STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/BJL
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BPP/BJL
MARINE...BPP/BJL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
319 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY...AS A BERMUDA
HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z/03 JUL KIAD RAOB INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEAR 2
INCHES. MODELS KEEP SIMILARLY HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST. RESULT IS BROAD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY OR DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...HIGH MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN H5 FLOW
COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
AT 07Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED ONE BATCH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...POISED TO MOVE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN EXPANDING OUTWARD WITH
TIME. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE STRATIFORM THE FURTHER
NORTH IT GETS...BUT COULD RESULT IN SOME PONDING OF WATER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ITS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE
MOST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY WILL SET UP. THIS MAY OCCUR IN AREAS OF LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD SREFS/HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...FAVORING LIKELY POPS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND
WESTWARD...AND THEN CHANCE FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE BAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN
CONVECTION. BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF SUCH ACTIVITY
AND THE FACT THAT ANY FLOODING MAY BE LOCALIZED...DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AS LINGERING ACTIVITY
WANES...AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH MOST MODELS/SREFS SUGGESTING A
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FAVORED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS. THERE WAS A SEVERAL DEGREE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE HIGHER
MAV/COOLER MET FOR TODAY AND THE BLEND WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE...THEN
WERE SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION MAY NOT
BE AS STRONG DUE TO LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH.
ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE EACH
DAY FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY AND ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
BREAKS DOWN DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE
LEANED CLOSER TOWARD THE EURO WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE A BIT
LONGER. EITHER WAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN MORE THAN ANTICIPATED
THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING REGARDING CIGS. RIBBON OF
MAINLY IFR CIGS EXISTS FROM CHO UP TOWARD IAD...WITH VFR OUTSIDE OF
THAT AREA. WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA THROUGH
SUNRISE...WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS DROPPING TO JUST MVFR MAINLY AFT
09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH LAMP VSBYS
ARE TOO LOW AND GENERALLY KEPT PREVAILING P6SM IN TAFS. ANOTHER
CONSIDERATION THROUGH SUNRISE WILL BE THE AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA THAT WILL MOVE NORTH WITH TIME...WHICH COULD IMPACT BOTH
CIGS/VSBYS. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS PREVAILING SHRA AFT 15Z...BUT
WILL HAVE TO AMEND TAFS IF RADAR TRENDS HOLD WITH THE INITIAL BATCH
OF SHOWERS POSSIBLY AFFECTING IAD/DCA AFT 09Z. HRRR SUGGESTS BWI
COULD BE AFFECTED TOO.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE TERMINALS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME
ALONG WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY BR/FOG MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD END UP DRY DUE TO
A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...
TPLM2 REMAINED G20 KT AT 06Z...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CHANNELLING
UP THE BAY. SCA IS IN EFFECT TIL 10Z UP THE BAY...THEN WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNRISE ALTHOUGH STILL COULD HOLD ONTO
NEAR 20 KT GUSTS TOWARD SMITH POINT INTO THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT
WIND SPEEDS ARE CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
COOLER WATERS AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...BUT MOST
OF THE TIME SHOULD TURN OUT DRY DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ531>533-538>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/BJL
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BPP/BJL
MARINE...BPP/BJL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
254 AM PDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING
IN MORE VERY WARM WEATHER WITH ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
A TROUGH WILL APPROACH TOMORROW...WITH SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
COOL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING WAS HAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOCALES NORTH OF
I-80. WITH THE SLOW MOVING NATURE...THESE STORMS PRODUCED SOME
ROBUST QPF AMOUNTS. GETTING GROUND TRUTH WAS DIFFICULT AS THESE
STORMS HAD TO MOVE OVER OBSERVERS OR REMOTE SENSING EQUIPMENT. OF
THE RAWS SITES IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...DOUBLE H CAME IN WITH 1.02 INCHES
AND DRY CANYON SHOWED 0.16 INCHES. IN NORTHWEST ELKO
COUNTY...ANTELOPE RAWS RECEIVED 0.09 INCHES. STORM MOTION WAS
GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH AT A SLOW 5 MPH OR SO. RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING AND THE HRRR GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...AND SO
SITES COULD SEE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION.
IT IS TURNING OUT TO BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE
LOOP THIS MORNING IS SHOWING DEBRIS CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. AS OF 1 AM...ELKO...WEST
WENDOVER...AND TONOPAH HAVE NOT DROPPED BELOW 80 DEGREES YET.
EXPECTING THE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO HEAT THINGS UP PRETTY QUICK. LOOKING AT ANOTHER
WARM DAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK. HAVE KEPT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING GOING FOR TODAY...AND WE SHOULD COOL OFF SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME...GOES GPS SOUNDER AND GPS MET DEPICTING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF RIGHT AROUND 0.80 FOR THE AUSTIN AREA AND WITH
ABOUT 1 INCH IN THE ELKO AREA. THE ONE INCH MEASURED AT ELKO WAS
DUE TO A RECENT SPIKE UP AS AN OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN THE NORTH
HELPED TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOT UP A
FEW DEGREES. MODELS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE WELL ENOUGH
AND THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF PW GRADIENT SETTING UP WITH
HUMBOLDT AND SOME OF ELKO COUNTY SEEING INCREASES TO ABOUT 0.90 TO
1 INCH AND OTHER LOCATIONS POSSIBLE SEEING RIGHT AROUND 0.75
INCHES. THIS POSES SOME ISSUES FIRE WEATHER-WISE AND THE
DISCUSSION WILL BE HANDLED BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. SLOW
STORM MOTION...0 TO 5 MPH...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE RULE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA AS THE 700-500MB HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION SETS UP
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM SPEEDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY...ABOUT 10-15 MPH. BEST CAPE VALUES...OF 400-800 J/KG
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HUMBOLDT...LANDER...AND NORTHWEST NYE COUNTIES. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS. FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF THIS AREA...HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE.
EXPECTING COVERAGE TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE WARM DUE TO DEBRIS CLOUD OVERHEAD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCOMING TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED
SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...BUT
WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE RECEIVED. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A 250MB JET OF ABOUT 45-50 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEVADA. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 600-1000
J/KG RANGE OVER HUMBOLDT...LANDER...AND NORTHWEST NYE COUNTIES.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30-35
KNOTS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-
LIVED...THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH BRINGS
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE GREAT BASIN WITH LI`S OF -3 TO
-4...ALSO JET SUPPORT WITH 45 TO 50 KNOT JET STREAK TO NORTH PUTTING
AREA IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WHICH WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION. EXPECT A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO PW`S
FROM .80 TO NEAR ONE INCH AND STORM MOTIONS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA AS TROUGH RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WEST AND RIDGE
BUILDS NEAR FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SEE TROUGH PUSH MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND RIDGE
RE-ESTABLISHING OVER GREAT BASIN WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S WITH SLIGHT COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THINNING LATER THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KWMC...KEKO AND KTPH AND 15
TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR KELY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WETTING
THE RUNWAYS ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS KWMC AND KTPH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER AN ACTIVE NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
CLEARING THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR FULL HEATING TO OCCUR. IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST WITH MODELS
SHOWING SOME KIND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT SETTING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. FIRE ZONES 467 AND 468 ARE EXPECTED TO SEE INCREASES
TO ABOUT 0.90 TO 1 INCH...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCHES WILL
BE SEEN OVER FIRE ZONES 455...470 AND THE EASTERN SECTION OF 457. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS OF 0 TO 5 MPH WILL PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FIRE
DISTRICT...EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 469 AND 470 WHERE
SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE FORECAST. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE DIVIDING LINE
BETWEEN MAINLY DRY STORMS VERSUS MAINLY WET STORMS. BEST CAPE
VALUES...400-800 J/KG...ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...FIRE ZONES 467 AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF 468...454...AND 457. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED
WET COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS. BUT FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THIS
AREA...HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE GETTING SUPPRESSED SOUTH. AN
UPPER LEVEL JET...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND FASTER STORM SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH ALL POINT TO A
POSSIBLE DRY LIGHTNING OUTBREAK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT DRY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
ENTIRE FIRE DISTRICT...BUT SOME DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED
OUT. STORM SPEEDS IN FIRE ZONE 454 AND 455 LOOK TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER AT 5-10 MPH...AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WETTING
RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT FUTURE GUIDANCE AND PASS THIS
INFORMATION ONTO THE NEXT SHIFT. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTACT WITH NO CHANGES.
LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COOLER THAN WHAT THEY
HAVE BEEN.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN
ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN
ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.
&&
$$
86/90/90/86
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD, ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS EVENING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED
AT THE PRESENT TIME. AREA RADARS SHOWING VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
ACROSS UPSTATE NY/NE PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE CLOSEST
ORGANIZED SHWRS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GREATER
PHILADELPHIA REGION. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO TIED TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THIS HR AND
ALSO ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40-45KT LLJ SEEN ON VWP DATA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST RUC FCST BRINGS THIS AREA OF PRECIP
NORTH INTO THE NE PA AND WESTERN CATSKILL ZONES AFTER 09Z. AS A
RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN CHC SHWRS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
MORNING HRS...WITH SLGT CHC MENTION ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS MORNING...EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER LARGELY REMAINS DECOUPLED
FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
745 PM UPDATE... STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING FROM EFFICIENT RAINERS IN THIS VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.75 INCHES
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT /MBE/ VECTORS ARE VERY SHORT...SUGGESTING
TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING ABILITY FOR ANY CONTINUED CONVECTION. THE
ONE POSITIVE THOUGH IS THAT CONVECTION WITH INBOUND WAVE THAT WAS
COMING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...HAS DIMINISHED
GREATLY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND PREFERENCE FOR ADVECTING
CLOSER TO THE COAST TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
HOWEVER...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND HRRR DEPICT
THE SURFACE-CONVERGENCE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EAST TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
ALSO...CENTRAL PA CONVECTION ALSO SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS NEPA AND
PERHAPS TO THE CATSKILLS THIS EVENING. SO ONGOING FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT CURRENTLY RUNS TO 1 AM STILL LOOKS GOOD. PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA THAT HAVE HAD REPEATED HEAVY RAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS CAN
ONLY HANDLE AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN...WHICH REMAINING SHOWERS ARE
STILL CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF DOING IN A LOCALIZED SENSE.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE SPECIFICS ESPECIALLY FOR THE LARGER
STEM RIVER TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD BACK TO THE WEST KEEPING DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE WESTERN EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
MIGHT ALLOW POPS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST BY THURSDAY OR
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS SOME CAPPING MAY EXIST UNDER THE RIDGE.
OVERALL WILL BE CONTINUING WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE
DAY WITH LOW CHC POPS AT NIGHT IN THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGHEST POPS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE... BUT REALLY
A SHOWER OR STORM COULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. AND
WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE ANY STRONG STORM COULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S UPDATE AS RATHER
STAGNANT NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BROAD
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDWEST TROF
REMAINING. TRENDS SUGGEST A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WHICH MAY TAKE
THE SERIOUS RAIN AND FLOOD CONCERNS TO OUR WEST. HEIGHT FALLS FROM
THE POLAR JET MAY ALSO WORK ON FLATTENING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGH DWPT AIR AND WARM TEMPS. WITHOUT MUCH NOTED
IN THE MODELS TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN...THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO
FEATURE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TRENDS IN POPS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY WITH
SOME REPRIEVE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
DAYTIME...AND MID-UPR 60S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLY FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTS TODAY. SOME PTCHY IFR FOG THIS MRNG AS
A RESULT OF ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX AFT SUNRISE. VFR
CONDS THRU THE DAY MAY BE OCNLY INTERUPTED BY MVFR SHWRS AS HTG
DVLPS CONV. TRWS SHD BE ISLTD ENUF TO NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. A RETURN TO VFR AND LGT WINDS AFT SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THROUGH SUN...AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. ALSO...EARLY EACH
AM...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CLDS/FOG ARE FORESEEN.
OTHWS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
7 PM UPDATE...
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES AT CORTLAND...NORWICH...AND SHERBURNE.
MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE SUSQUEHANNA AT CONKLIN...VESTAL AND
WAVERLY/SAYRE. SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST.
THE RIVER TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY STEADY TO SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA MAIN STEM...CONKLIN ON DOWN...WHICH STILL NEEDS TO
PROCESS THE SURGE OF RUNOFF DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
RELATIVE TRANQUILITY OF THE FORECASTS IS IN PART DUE TO RAINFALL
FORECASTS OF ONLY AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT FORECASTS PROVIDED
TO THE HYDRAULIC MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING ENOUGH RAIN IN THE
BASINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS PLUME OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTH
OUT OF VIRGINA ARRIVES TONIGHT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS AREA OF
RAIN HOLDING TOGETHER...AND PRODUCING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL IS NOT GREAT EITHER...BUT THIS AIRMASS IS
VERY TROPICAL AND EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING BIG AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED EXTREMELY CLOSELY. AS ALWAYS...WILL
BE CONCERNED WITH CONVECTIVE LINES AND TRAINING CELLS OVER SMALL
SCALE BASINS THAT COULD TURN THE TIDE OF HEADWATER POINTS AND
FLASH FLOODING ON US RATHER QUICKLY. SHORT TERM RAINFALL FLASH
FLOOD RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...CMG/MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DGM
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
117 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD, ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS EVENING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED
AT THE PRESENT TIME. AREA RADARS SHOWING VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
ACROSS UPSTATE NY/NE PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE CLOSEST
ORGANIZED SHWRS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GREATER
PHILADELPHIA REGION. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO TIED TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THIS HR AND
ALSO ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40-45KT LLJ SEEN ON VWP DATA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST RUC FCST BRINGS THIS AREA OF PRECIP
NORTH INTO THE NE PA AND WESTERN CATSKILL ZONES AFTER 09Z. AS A
RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN CHC SHWRS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
MORNING HRS...WITH SLGT CHC MENTION ELSEWHERE. WITH VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS MORNING...EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER LARGELY REMAINS DECOUPLED
FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
745 PM UPDATE... STILL SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING FROM EFFICIENT RAINERS IN THIS VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.75 INCHES
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT /MBE/ VECTORS ARE VERY SHORT...SUGGESTING
TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING ABILITY FOR ANY CONTINUED CONVECTION. THE
ONE POSITIVE THOUGH IS THAT CONVECTION WITH INBOUND WAVE THAT WAS
COMING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...HAS DIMINISHED
GREATLY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND PREFERENCE FOR ADVECTING
CLOSER TO THE COAST TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
HOWEVER...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE RUC AND HRRR DEPICT
THE SURFACE-CONVERGENCE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EAST TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
ALSO...CENTRAL PA CONVECTION ALSO SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS NEPA AND
PERHAPS TO THE CATSKILLS THIS EVENING. SO ONGOING FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT CURRENTLY RUNS TO 1 AM STILL LOOKS GOOD. PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA THAT HAVE HAD REPEATED HEAVY RAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS CAN
ONLY HANDLE AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN...WHICH REMAINING SHOWERS ARE
STILL CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF DOING IN A LOCALIZED SENSE.
SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE SPECIFICS ESPECIALLY FOR THE LARGER
STEM RIVER TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD BACK TO THE WEST KEEPING DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE WESTERN EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE
MIGHT ALLOW POPS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST BY THURSDAY OR
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS SOME CAPPING MAY EXIST UNDER THE RIDGE.
OVERALL WILL BE CONTINUING WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE
DAY WITH LOW CHC POPS AT NIGHT IN THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGHEST POPS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE... BUT REALLY
A SHOWER OR STORM COULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. AND
WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE ANY STRONG STORM COULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S UPDATE AS RATHER
STAGNANT NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BROAD
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDWEST TROF
REMAINING. TRENDS SUGGEST A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WHICH MAY TAKE
THE SERIOUS RAIN AND FLOOD CONCERNS TO OUR WEST. HEIGHT FALLS FROM
THE POLAR JET MAY ALSO WORK ON FLATTENING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGH DWPT AIR AND WARM TEMPS. WITHOUT MUCH NOTED
IN THE MODELS TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN...THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO
FEATURE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TRENDS IN POPS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY WITH
SOME REPRIEVE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
DAYTIME...AND MID-UPR 60S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL VFR THIS EVENING FALLING TO MVFR AND IFR LATE TONIGHT
THEN BACK TO VFR BY 15Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CONTINUE AND COULD
STILL PRODUCE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES THIS EVE.
FOR NOW...WE`VE KEPT RESTRICTIONS IN THE MVFR CAT...AND WE`LL
INSERT THUNDER ON AN AS NEEDED BASIS. THUNDER COVERAGE IS
DECREASING. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE ALL NIGHT BUT WITH SATURATED
LOW LEVELS AND WET GROUND CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP. SYR RME AND
AVP WILL FALL TO MVFR CIG AND VSBYS BETWEEN 6 AND 9Z. AT ELM ITH
BGM IT WILL BE EARLIER BETWEEN 5 AND 8Z THEN FALLING TO IFR CIG
AND VSBY 9 TO 13Z. ALL SITES BACK TO VFR BY AROUND 14Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS
AROUND 15Z THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN.
.OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THROUGH SUN...AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. ALSO...EARLY EACH
AM...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CLDS/FOG ARE FORESEEN.
OTHWS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
7 PM UPDATE...
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES AT CORTLAND...NORWICH...AND SHERBURNE.
MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE SUSQUEHANNA AT CONKLIN...VESTAL AND
WAVERLY/SAYRE. SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST.
THE RIVER TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY STEADY TO SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA MAIN STEM...CONKLIN ON DOWN...WHICH STILL NEEDS TO
PROCESS THE SURGE OF RUNOFF DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
RELATIVE TRANQUILITY OF THE FORECASTS IS IN PART DUE TO RAINFALL
FORECASTS OF ONLY AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT FORECASTS PROVIDED
TO THE HYDRAULIC MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING ENOUGH RAIN IN THE
BASINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS PLUME OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTH
OUT OF VIRGINA ARRIVES TONIGHT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS AREA OF
RAIN HOLDING TOGETHER...AND PRODUCING IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL IS NOT GREAT EITHER...BUT THIS AIRMASS IS
VERY TROPICAL AND EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING BIG AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED EXTREMELY CLOSELY. AS ALWAYS...WILL
BE CONCERNED WITH CONVECTIVE LINES AND TRAINING CELLS OVER SMALL
SCALE BASINS THAT COULD TURN THE TIDE OF HEADWATER POINTS AND
FLASH FLOODING ON US RATHER QUICKLY. SHORT TERM RAINFALL FLASH
FLOOD RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...CMG/MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
342 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. TYPICAL MID SUMMERTIME
WEATHER OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NOW IN EVIDENCE.
ANTICIPATE INCREASED COVERAGE AFTER DAYBREAK LATER THIS MORNING.
BROAD UPPER PATTERN...WHICH CONSISTS OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H/5
LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER WESTLANT...CONTINUES ITS SLOW WESTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT DEEP AND VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT ALL LEVELS WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME BECOMING DRYER. P/W VALUES DROP FROM PRESENT 2 INCH RANGE TO
1.50-1.75 INCHES BY NOON AND AROUND 1.30 INCHES OVERNIGHT. AXIS OF
HEAVIEST POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT
IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GIVEN OUR SATURATED SOILS FEEL IT IS
PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS-IS DESPITE DECREASING
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL CONTINUE A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
EXTENDED BEYONG THE TODAY PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS. MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING WEST WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING WEST IN
TANDEM. THE DELIBERATE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE BUT POPS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PROLIFIC RECENT RAINS WILL ASSIST
IN KEEPING AT LEAST A MENTION AS WELL. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH READINGS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM HIGHER
AMPLITUDE TO A BASIC EAST/WEST ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
THE SURFACE FOR OUR AREA...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. POPS ARA ONLY IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS THE
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS DAMPEN VALUES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. I WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THERMAL PROFILES BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH
SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT CERTAINLY
THE OVERALL THEME OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAINS INTACT.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE
MOVING TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMS...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW SCT
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD
ONTO VCSH AT THE COASTAL SITES WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. AT KLBT AND KFLO...FOG/STRATUS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
WITH TEMPO IFR EXPECTED FROM 06-12Z. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL HELP TO DRY OUR CWA OUT...BEGINNING
WITH THE COASTAL SITES IN THE AFTN. SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE LIKELY
INLAND THRU THE MORNING AND AFTN AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS...AGAIN MOST LIKELY AT
KLBT/KFLO DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE 15 KT RANGE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A VERY CONSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN
FOCUS. WAVEWATCH SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH 2-4
FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT ACCELERATION EACH EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TYPICAL OF
SUMMER...10-15 KNOTS WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE HIGHER END EACH
AFTERNOON. WAVEWATCH SEAS ARE TYPICAL WITH 2-4 FEET WITH MOSTLY
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
207 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND ALMOST
ALL OF THEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN FLOOD INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA...
RESULTING IN FEWER AND FEWER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DRY
FORECAST ANTICIPATED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS SUNSHINE BECOMES MORE AND MORE PREVALENT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 2:00 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
ILM CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES. LATEST NAM AND SREF INDICATE THE SLUG OF ATLANTIC AND
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA FOR
1 MORE DAY. THIS MOISTURE FEED/LINE IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST NAM AND
SREF TO SLOWLY GET SHUNTED WESTWARD AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THE WORST CONVECTION TO MAINLY OCCUR
WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST STORMS OF THESE LONG "STREAMERS". ROTATION
HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED BY THE KLTX 88D AS WELL AS NEIGHBORING RADARS.
HOWEVER...THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THESE ROTATING CELLS ARE NOT YOUR
NORMAL SIGNATURE FOR TORNADIC STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...THEY HAVE
PRODUCED DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURIES THAT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A
SURVEY BY THE NWS AND/OR LOCAL COUNTY EOCS TO DETERMINE IF IT WAS
TORNADIC.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AND OCCASIONALLY
PUSH ONSHORE AND INLAND. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN BE THE HEAVY RAINS WITHIN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE
CURRENT LOCATIONS IN EFFECT DURING THE NEXT UPDATE. SREF POP
DISTRIBUTION FOR MEASURABLE RAIN HAS BEEN HEAVILY LEANED ON FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE RATHER SOUPY TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE FA WILL RESULT IN
LOWS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AND ALSO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHTS MINS SEEMS LIKE THE WAY TO
GO...IE. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.....................
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...EVER SO GRADUALLY...DRIER AND WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH SYSTEM IS EDGING WESTWARD.
THIS CAN ESPECIALLY BE SEEN NOT ONLY IN WATER VAPOR ANIMATIONS BUT
ALSO SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS. MOSAIC RADAR
TRENDS HAVE HELD A SHARPLY DELINEATED LINE...WHERE GENERALLY OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF BRUNSWICK TO NEW HANOVER TO MOST OF PENDER
HAVE NOT RECEIVED A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL TODAY DUE TO IMPINGING
BERMUDA HIGH. FOR THIS REASON WE WILL LIKELY DROP THESE COUNTIES
FROM THE FLOOD WATCH BUT EXTEND THE REMAINING COUNTIES UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BASED ON THE ACTIVITY STILL APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH. IF RAINFALL TAPERS OFF MORE IN EARNEST THIS EVENING THEN
THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED SOONER THAN MIDNIGHT.
SEVERAL OF OUR RIVERS ARE IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH A FEW MORE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE RISES TO MINOR FLOODING. THESE CAN BE VIEWED AT
THE FOLLOWING URL...WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ILM.
ALSO A FEW ROAD CLOSURES ASSOCIATED WITH FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORENCE COUNTY. NIGHT-TIME COMMUTERS
SHOULD USE CAUTION ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA THIS EVENING.
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS WITH SUCH SATURATED GROUNDS AND
LOW-LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT RETROGRADES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WEST...REPLACED BY GRADUALLY DRIER AIR SEEN NICELY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IMPINGING ON THE CAPE
HATTERAS AREA AT THIS TIME.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP FROM
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES WED MORNING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY THU
MORNING. THE CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE WEST OF THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VERY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL PERSIST...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN IN RECENT
DAYS...1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 800
J/KG. EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR ARRIVING IN THE
MID-LEVELS WITH AN INVERTED V PROFILE DEVELOPING BELOW 1500 FT.
THUS...ANY DEEPER CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHUTTING DOWN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE ATLANTIC FEED WILL BE SLOWER TO
DIMINISH. WILL CARRY THE LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION...
CHANCE...WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THUS
CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN IF NOT COMPLETELY COME TO AN END DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL HAVE A MUCH STRONGER
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA BY THURSDAY. GIVEN NO DISCERNIBLE FEATURES
ALOFT TO ENHANCE LIFT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. THE SEABREEZE AND DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY
ACT TO LIFT AND FOCUS MOISTURE AND WITH STRONG HEATING...INSTABILITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THUS CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE NO RAIN ON
THU. AGAIN EXPECT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THUS CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN AND END QUICKLY DURING THE EVE.
AS MORE AND MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS...TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE...
WARMER ON THU THAN ON WED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS SOME UPPER
80S ON WED SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF 90 DEGREES FOR MANY
AREAS ON THU. LOWS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOWER TO
MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL SHIFTING THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE CENTER BEING OVERHEAD
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING SHUNTED TO THE WEST AND THE MODELS
ARE DEPICTING THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROPPING FROM ABOVE 2 INCHES TO
AT OR BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF.
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON THE SURFACE BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT TO SEE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE CLOUDS DECREASING AND
AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND TO THE 91 TO 94 DEGREE RANGE INLAND BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE
MOVING TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMS...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW SCT
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD
ONTO VCSH AT THE COASTAL SITES WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. AT KLBT AND KFLO...FOG/STRATUS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
WITH TEMPO IFR EXPECTED FROM 06-12Z. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL HELP TO DRY OUR CWA OUT...BEGINNING
WITH THE COASTAL SITES IN THE AFTN. SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE LIKELY
INLAND THRU THE MORNING AND AFTN AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS...AGAIN MOST LIKELY AT
KLBT/KFLO DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:00 AM WEDNESDAY...HAVE DROPPED SCEC HEADLINES WITH LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE AS 10 TO 15 KT WINDS BOTH ONGOING AND FORECAST DO
NOT MEET ISSUANCE CRITERIA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
WAVEWATCH3 INDICATES A SOLID 3 TO 5 FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...COMBINED WITH SE-S WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20
KT RANGE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. PERIODS WILL RUN
5 TO 8 SECONDS...BORDERING ON SWELL CRITERIA. WITH THE CENTER OF
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH ALONG THE 33-35 DEGREE LATITUDE...A
LENGTHY E TO W FETCH WILL EXIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
BERMUDA HIGH. COMBINED WITH LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL HOLD SOLID IN A 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE
THRUOUT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.....................
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT REMAINS ACTIVE FOR
ALL WATERS FOR 5 FT SEAS OFFSHORE AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT.
TSTMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE SC WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE NC WATERS. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL MOSTLY
BE SOUTH WAVES 3-5 FEET IN 6-8 SECONDS INTERVALS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE BERMUDA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
EXPAND ACROSS THE WATERS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SE WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM 3 TO 5 FT ON WED TO 3 TO 4 FT
ON THU. A WEAK 9 TO 10 SECOND SE SWELL WILL DEVELOP BY THU. THERE
IS ONLY THE SMALLEST RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT WESTWARD AND WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SEE
THE WINDS BLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET ON FRIDAY
AND SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-099.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
AVIATION...BJR/REK
MARINE...REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1149 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP DEPICTED A HIGH AMPLIFIED STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NOAM WITH A HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WERE
TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED.
A FEW TSTORMS THAT FORMED AROUND MIDDAY BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND
KIMBALL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS
FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
PREVAILING WINDS WERE VARIABLE 10 MPH OR LESS...OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 20 MPH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWLY RETROGRADES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER LOW/TROUGH SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM.
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NAM DOES SPREAD SOME CONVECTION AND LIGHT QPF INTO WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND ECWMF
KEEP THIS MOISTURE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL WYOMING. AT THIS TIME...WILL
OPT FOR A DRY FORECAST. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM
TODAY...RANGING FROM 11 TO 15C. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A TAD MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WINDS DURING THE
SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND WILL
PASS TO THE EAST FOR FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE TO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE WILL SPARK OFF MAINLY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW STORMS LOOKING TO SNEAK OFF
INTO THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AS EASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART AND MODELS SHOW THE ACTIVITY ENDING BY
EARLY EVENING. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CWA FOR FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE AS
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADVECTS IN MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. EASTERLY RETURN
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVER THE REGION. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST FOR SUNDAY...ALBEIT WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
ANALYZED FOR THIS DAY. THEREFORE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER TSTORMS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. ANOTHER BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
ENERGY AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MARGINALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE UPPER HIGH SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
WILL SHIFT WINDS ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL DRAW MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE DISTRICTS...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...MAZUR
AVIATION...WEILAND
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
305 AM MST WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK IN SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. THE MAIN THREATS FROM TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BASIN HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS
THREAT OF WINDS AND DUST IN NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A
WETTER SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH COULD BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ALTHOUGH WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN.
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
CROSSED EASTERN AZ TUESDAY NOW MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. COUPLE OF UPSTREAM RIPPLE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW CURRENTLY
NEAR AZ/NM BORDER AND WC AZ WITH ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING
ACROSS THE RIM COUNTRY AND ALSO WEST OF THE PHOENIX METRO
RESPECTIVELY. THE 07Z HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. RESULTANT
FORECAST INCLUDES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS MORNING IN MOST
AREAS WITH MAIN FOCUS EAST OF TUCSON.
FARTHER UPSTREAM IN NORTHERLY FLOW...MORE DISTURBANCES ARE PRESENT
IN UTAH AND SHOULD PROVIDE AN ADDED BOOST TO STORMS THAT FORM EAST
OF TUCSON LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THESE WERE CAPTURED BY THE
GFS MODEL FIELDS. WHILE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN UTAH DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS TUESDAY...STORMS IN SE AZ COULD STILL PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. THINK BEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN A TAD
FARTHER EAST THAN ON TUESDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENCIRCLING THE NORTHERN
PERIMETER OF THE GREAT BASIN HIGH WHERE A CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS
ONGOING OVER IDAHO. THIS SYSTEM IS DEPICTED AS MOVING ACROSS SE AZ
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY MAKING FOR AN ACTIVE INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER AS IT IS COMPLICATED BY THE
CENTER OF THE BASIN HIGH SIMULTANEOUSLY WAFTING TOWARD AZ...WHICH
COULD ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT HAVE MAINTAINED
20-50 PERCENT CHANCES...AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
FRI AND SAT THE MOVEMENT OF HIGH MAY PLACE SE AZ IN DEEPER MOISTURE
CREEPING IN FROM SE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLOWER MOVING HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH HIGHS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SATURDAY IS STILL
FORECAST AS THE LEAST HOT DAY...WHEN THE STREAK OF 100+ DEGREE DAYS
IN TUCSON COULD COME TO AN END...BUT FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HIGH STANDS RIGHT AT 100...KD
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 04/12Z...
AS ONE BATCH OF CLOUDS EXITS SE AZ TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER BATCH OF
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON THIS MORNING...THEN ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF KTUS AFTER 03/20Z. THESE STORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 04/05Z BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL EXHIBIT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WESTERN LOCATIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EASTERN AREAS THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY
FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULD SPREAD TO NEARBY VALLEY AREAS.
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE WET. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MODERATION OF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY GOOD OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
DROZD/LADER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
646 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NEAR I-64 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR KMVN...AND IT MAY BE
FORCING THIS SHALLOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT. ALREADY ADDED 20-30 POPS
OVER THIS REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE SREF AND HRRR SHOW THE CURRENT ACTIVITY PRETTY WELL...AND
THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR THIS ZONE OF
SHOWERS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE WABASH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KEPT POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT IN A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BAND THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS AND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING SHOULD BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...THE OVERWHELMING SIGNAL IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TAP SOME DEEP MOISTURE AND
DRAG IT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA IN
THE FORM SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING JUST OFF THE
SURFACE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
BE BACKED TO EASTERLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL...THE SOUNDINGS LOOK RATHER
TROPICAL...EXCEPT THE MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. LOOK FOR
ALOT OF SHOWERS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE PENNYRILE BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PENNYRILE AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH THE DAY. NOT SURE
JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER THERE WILL BE...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF/WHERE
TRAINING OCCURS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HOW FAR WEST THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A RATHER WET...DREARY DAY OVER THE PENNYRILE AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
THE FAR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND BY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WESTWARD ALL THE WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. AS THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
GENERAL DRYING TREND/LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY FRIDAY...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER TO NEARLY DUE SOUTH AND
THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT/DISCERNIBLE DISTURBANCE TO FOCUS
CONVECTION...WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL EVENT FRIDAY. WILL
POST 50 POPS IN THE FAR EAST AND TAPER TO SLIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WOULD EXPECT THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FRIDAY TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE IMPACT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...WITH WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA SEEING THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
POPS/WEATHER. GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERS...THE IMPRESSED
LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIXED ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH POP/WEATHER CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRECLUDES ANY ONE LOCATION SEEING MUCH MORE
THAN FIFTY PERCENT COVERAGE. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN
OVER THE AREA...THERMAL DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BECOME MINIMIZED AS EQUILIBRIUM IS ESTABLISHED. THE COMBINATION OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW /INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR/ INTO THE
AREA...INSOLATION AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN SHEAR WILL LEAD TO
GREATER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.
BY NEXT MONDAY...THE BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERS COMBINED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH FASTER ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WESTERLIES AND MINOR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW...TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FIELDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH TIME DUE TO WEAK FLOW
AND SUBSIDENCE.
JUST BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...GOING TOWARD JULY
11-12...THERE COULD BE A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT...AS THE WESTERLIES DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS A RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
LIFR CEILINGS JUST BARELY REACHED KOWB AT 11Z...AND MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILED AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT THE LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE
EAST AND WEST THIS MORNING. KCGI SHOULD SCATTERED OUT BY 14Z AND
THE OTHER SITES BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE DAY AT KCGI AND KPAH...BUT A MODEST SOUTHWEST BREEZE CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KEVV AND KOWB.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...SO CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TONIGHT. A
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD TOWARD KOWB LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS. NOT SURE IF CEILINGS ARE VERY LIKELY
BEFORE 12Z...BUT IF CEILINGS DEVELOP THEY MAY BE IN THE VICINITY
OF 3KFT. FOR NOW JUST KEPT A SCATTERED DECK IN THE FORECAST. INDICATED
PREVAILING MVFR FOG AT KPAH AND KCGI LATE IN THE PERIOD...DUE TO
THE MOSTLY CLEAR...CALM AND MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1013 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY...AS A BERMUDA
HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BLOCKING SETUP FROM THE ERN PACIFIC TO THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS
INHIBITED MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN A BERMUDA RIDGE
AND A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. TROPOSPHERIC-
DEEP S-SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
DRAWING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE POLEWARD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. SAT BLENDED TOTAL PWATS AND MRNG IAD RAOB
CONFIRM A VERY SATURATED AIRMASS OVER THE CWA WITH PWATS OVER 2
INCHES.
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THE FORCING THIS MRNG FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN I-95 TO THE
SHENANDOAH VLY HAS BEEN AN ELONGATED MID-LVL TROUGH ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. LATEST HRRR HAS THE BULK OF THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA ERY THIS AFTN. TRICKY
FCST TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP LATER
TDA. CURRENT THINKING IS WITH THE RIDGE FCST TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY
WWD...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WWD THIS AFTN AND EVE TOWARD THE MTS. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CHSPK BAY IF BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS CONTINUE AND A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SHARPENS.
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY WOULD BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
HEATING BOUNDARY WHILE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND LIMIT
INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PLACEMENT OF SUCH ACTIVITY AND THE FACT THAT ANY FLOODING MAY BE
LOCALIZED...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREV FCST TO SHARPEN THE W-E TEMP
GRADIENT. HIGHS RANGE FROM UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F IN THE SHENANDOAH
VLY AND WRN SUBURBS OF DC TO MU80S IN SRN MD.
CONTINUE TO ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS
LINGERING ACTIVITY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LIFT FROM ANY
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. KEPT FCST FOR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DRY
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT OF CLEARING LATE
TNGT. ANY BREAKS THOUGH WOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION MAY NOT
BE AS STRONG DUE TO LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH.
ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE EACH
DAY FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...BUT MOST
OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY AND ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
SCATTERED DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
BREAKS DOWN DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE
LEANED CLOSER TOWARD THE EURO WHICH HOLDS ONTO THE RIDGE A BIT
LONGER. EITHER WAY...SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN MORE THAN ANTICIPATED
THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS OVER THE
TERMINALS THIS MRNG WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DAYTIME MIXING AND
PROMOTE LOW CIGS IN THE IFR RANGE /EXCEPT AT MRB/ AND VARYING
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE BEEN UPDATING TAFS TO REFLECT A DELAYED
IMPROVEMENT IN IFR CIGS UNTIL MIDDAY...WHICH IS LONGER THAN
LAMP/HRRR OR ANY OTHER AVIATION GUIDANCE INDICATES. ONCE THIS
ROUND OF SHRA MOVE OUT...CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO HIGH-END MVFR OR VFR
DURING THE AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY AN ISO TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE TDA. BEST CHANCE ATTM APPEARS TO BE 20Z-00Z
TIMEFRAME.
STRATUS AND FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATE TNGT...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY
CLEARING OCCURS. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE FAVORING MORE OF AN IMPACT
WITH LOW CLOUDS VS FOG FOR THE TERMINALS.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE TERMINALS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME
ALONG WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY BR/FOG MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD END UP DRY DUE TO
A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...
ONLY THE CHSPK BAY FROM DRUM POINT TO SMITH POINT AND THE TANGIER
SOUND REMAIN IN A SCA. WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN DURING THE
DAYTIME...WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THIS SCA DURING THE
AFTN...IF NOT BEFORE. WIDELY SCT STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN IN
THE BAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SMWS IN THE BAY THIS AFTN
AND ERY EVE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD TURN OUT DRY DUE TO A
STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/BPP
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/JRK
MARINE...BJL/JRK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1112 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING ON THURSDAY WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY. BY
FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH DECREASED CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11AM UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO DISCUSSION. HAVE INCRESED POP
CHANCES IN THE FINGER LAKES AREA DUE TO PRESENCE OF STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POP
CHANCE IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES AS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD FROM EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
LATEST 13Z HRRR AND 12Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE PLAIN. MAIN THREAT WITH
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, AS
BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES AROUND 2".
ADDITIONALLY, ALSO WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THREAT
AS SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES REACHING 1500 J/KG AND
SURFACE CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES RIGHT NOW ARE AROUND 30KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL BE WATCHING THIS AFTERNOON, ESPCIALLY NEAR THE AREAS THAT
HAVE RECIEVED MAJOR FLOODING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
DESPITE MUCH OF THE EAST COAST REMAINING IN A VERY MOIST...SEMI-
TROPICAL AIRMASS. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK SHWR
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHWRS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA. THIS
SECONDARY AREA OF SHWRS TO OUR SOUTH IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY A
NORTHWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A 40-45 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH AREA 88D VWPS CONTINUE TO SAMPLE TO OUR SOUTH.
SEVERAL SITES REPORTING FOG THIS MORNING AS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY
AS THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS ENVELOPED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING NEAR 2" PER ALL AVAILABLE MODEL
DATA...CONCERNS THIS MORNING REMAIN FOCUSED ON A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WITH ANY SHWRS/STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IDENTIFIABLE
FORCING FEATURES AS MAIN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TODAY. WITH
VARIOUS MODELS OFFERING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 500-1000 JOULES OF CAPE
DURING PEAK HEATING...STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IF
ACTIVITY WERE TO DEVELOP. THAT SAID...CLOSE MODEL INSPECTION
SUGGESTS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING WHICH MAY SERVE AS A
MECHANISM TO GET THINGS GOING. DESPITE THIS...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE BASED ON WEAK NATURE OF
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL FEATURE. AS A RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO
ONLY OFFER A HIGH CHC POP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
BY TONIGHT...BULK OF AFTERNOON SHWR/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. LOWS THIS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER OFFERING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. AS DE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS...STRONGER WESTERLIES POSITIONED TO OUR WEST
WILL TEMPORARILY SETTLE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA. WITH RESPECT TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHWR/STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD OFFERING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AS REGION WARMS WILL INTO THE LWR TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. THAT SAID...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CENTERED ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. SPC DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
OUR REGION IN A "SEE TEXT" SUGGESTING ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. IN ADDITION...VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ANY SHWRS/STORMS LIKELY
TO BE EFFICIENT RAINERS THUS ALSO CONTINUING CONCERNS FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE TO CONTINUE BUILDING WITH MODEST
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING 850 TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR
18C BY AFTERNOON. WITH MAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINING
WELL WEST AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SPARSER COVERAGE OF SHWR/STORMS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRAY LOW 90S
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S UPDATE AS RATHER
STAGNANT NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BROAD
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDWEST TROF
REMAINING. TRENDS SUGGEST A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WHICH MAY TAKE
THE SERIOUS RAIN AND FLOOD CONCERNS TO OUR WEST. HEIGHT FALLS FROM
THE POLAR JET MAY ALSO WORK ON FLATTENING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HIGH DWPT AIR AND WARM TEMPS. WITHOUT MUCH NOTED
IN THE MODELS TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN...THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO
FEATURE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TRENDS IN POPS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EACH DAY WITH
SOME REPRIEVE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
DAYTIME...AND MID-UPR 60S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLY FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTS TODAY. SOME PTCHY IFR FOG THIS MRNG AS
A RESULT OF ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX AFT SUNRISE. VFR
CONDS THRU THE DAY MAY BE OCNLY INTERRUPTED BY MVFR SHWRS AS HTG
DVLPS CONV. TRWS SHD BE ISLTD ENUF TO NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. A RETURN TO VFR AND LGT WINDS AFT SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THROUGH SUN...AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. ALSO...EARLY EACH
AM...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CLDS/FOG ARE FORESEEN.
OTHWS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE DROPPED WARNNGS AT CONKLIN AND VESTAL AS THE LATEST FCSTS NOW
SHOWING LWRD QPF AND RVRS CREST BLO FLOOD. SHERBURNS CANCELLED AS
WEL WUITH THE RVR DROPPING BLO FLOOD STAGE. CONTD WARNING AT
WAVERLY AS THE RVR JUST TOUCHES FLOOD EARLY THU.
RAINFALL AMTS WERE MUCH LWR ON WED IN TURN LWRG CRESTS XPCTD AT
FCST POINTS. TODAY WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME WITH JUST SCT CONV CELLS
AND MUCH LWR PCPN INPUT TO RVRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/MSE/PAS
SHORT TERM...CMG LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DGM HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. TYPICAL MID SUMMERTIME
WEATHER OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SKIRTING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. REST OF AREA
MAINLY DRY. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED DATABASE AND FORECAST TO BETTER
TIME STORM MOVEMENT. NO OTHER CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BROAD UPPER PATTERN...WHICH CONSISTS OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H/5
LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER WESTLANT...CONTINUES ITS SLOW WESTWARD SHIFT THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT DEEP AND VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT ALL LEVELS WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME BECOMING DRYER. P/W VALUES DROP FROM PRESENT 2 INCH RANGE TO
1.50-1.75 INCHES BY NOON AND AROUND 1.30 INCHES OVERNIGHT. AXIS OF
HEAVIEST POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT
IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GIVEN OUR SATURATED SOILS FEEL IT IS
PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS-IS DESPITE DECREASING
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL CONTINUE A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
EXTENDED BEYOND THE TODAY PERIOD.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS. MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING WEST WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING WEST IN
TANDEM. THE DELIBERATE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE BUT POPS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PROLIFIC RECENT RAINS WILL ASSIST
IN KEEPING AT LEAST A MENTION AS WELL. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH READINGS HOVERING WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM HIGHER
AMPLITUDE TO A BASIC EAST/WEST ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
THE SURFACE FOR OUR AREA...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. POPS ARA ONLY IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS THE
SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS DAMPEN VALUES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. I WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THERMAL PROFILES BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH
SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT CERTAINLY
THE OVERALL THEME OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAINS INTACT.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE
MOVING TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMS...AND LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW SCT
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD
ONTO VCSH AT THE COASTAL SITES WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEFORE
DAYBREAK. AT KLBT AND KFLO...FOG/STRATUS MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE
WITH TEMPO IFR EXPECTED FROM 06-12Z. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL HELP TO DRY OUR CWA OUT...BEGINNING
WITH THE COASTAL SITES IN THE AFTN. SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE LIKELY
INLAND THRU THE MORNING AND AFTN AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS...AGAIN MOST LIKELY AT
KLBT/KFLO DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL MORNING
FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A VERY CONSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN
FOCUS. WAVEWATCH SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH 2-4
FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT ACCELERATION EACH EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TYPICAL OF
SUMMER...10-15 KNOTS WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE HIGHER END EACH
AFTERNOON. WAVEWATCH SEAS ARE TYPICAL WITH 2-4 FEET WITH MOSTLY
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-
033-039-053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS TODAY WITH PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE
CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT. WATCHING CONVECTION MOVE THRU NRN GA AND
NOW INTO THE WRN TIP OF THE CWFA. 850MB MOISTURE PLUME SEEMS TO BE
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY BUT STRENGTHENING 250MB JET
AND ASSOC UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THAT REGION AIDING IT AS WELL. WITH
DEEP SSW FLOW MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR
WEST BUT THE SAME FLOW WILL PROMOTE CONVECTION IN THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE SC
MIDLANDS NOW AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY.
11Z HRRR REFLECTS THIS LATTER BATCH OF STORMS AND THE MOVEMENT
SUGGESTED BY RADAR TRENDS...BUT SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS WHICH IS A BIT SURPRISING. RAP AND NEW NAM ARE MORE
BELIEVABLE AND MAINTAIN SHOWERS/STMS THERE. TEMPS/DEWPTS ARE ON
TRACK FROM LAST UPDATE.
AT 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST WEST WEST
OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE AN ATLANTIC
UPPER HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS WEST OVER THE EAST COAST. CHANNELED
VORTICITY BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. POPS WILL
BE GREATEST NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY...WHERE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER
TODAY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER AND LOW HEIGHTS
ALOFT.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES WEST...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
PIEDMONT...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE TRAIN
OF UPPER VORT MAXES MOVING NORTH BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATER RANGE
OF POPS BETWEEN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WARMING MID LEVELS
MAY CAP PROFILES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...EVEN AS CAPE
INCREASES AND SHEAR PERSISTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
NORMAL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
FAR WEST THE BEST FORCING FOR PCPN MOVES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT SHIFTS A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDANT SFC LOW THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE GOM THURSDAY AND ACROSS
MIDDLE TN THU NIGHT. H8 WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS ON THE GFS. THE CANADIAN HAS SIMILAR TIMING
THOUGH IT/S LOW IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. EVEN THE NAM IS LARGELY ON
BOARD WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IN
THE HEART OF THE STRONG LLVL JET. HOWEVER...THE FLOW EVEN INCREASES
TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW NC MTNS AS WELL AS
NE GA. CONSIDERING HOW MOIST THE AIRMASS IS...THIS CERTAINLY COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS. FARTHER TO THE EAST I
WOULDN/T EXPECT AS MUCH OF A RESPONSE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
PARTICULARLY THE PIEDMONT. SO I HAVE LOWER POPS TO THE EAST...VERY
MUCH IN LINE WITH THE POPS THAT THE DAY SHIFT HAD. WPC ALSO ORIENTS
THE HEAVIEST QPF WEST OF THE MTNS...THOUGH THEY STILL HAVE A SOLID
INCH OF PCPN OVER THE WRN ZONES 12 UTC THU TO 12 UTC FRI.
THERE ARE NOT ANY MODEL FEATURES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COMPARABLE
TO THE ONE THURSDAY...AT LEAST NOT RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY PCPN STAY WEST OF THE FA...AND IN FACT MAY
SHIFT FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
OF LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...I DON/T
SEE ANY CAPPING ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...EVEN OVER THE PIEDMONT. SO
EVEN AS THE BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST...THERE
SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES INCREASE. IN FACT...THE HIGH DOESN/T LOOK TO MAKE NEARLY THE
WESTWARD MOVE THAT WE WERE SEEING IN THE MODELS A COUPLE DAYS AGO. I
HOPE THIS DOESN/T MEAN THE WRN ZONES WILL BE UNDER A BAND OF BETTER
FORCING AND ATTENDANT HEAVY PCPN COVERAGE THAN WE CURRENTLY
THINK...BUT IT WELL MAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PICKS UP AT 12Z SATURDAY
WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE CONUS...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH
WITH TROUGH OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND HIGH OVER ARIZONA...NEW
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW FOR OUR AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW GRADUALLY
BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE SW DURING SUNDAY AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE ON THE GFS AT THE 925MB LEVEL THROUGH TUES. MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A ECLIPSE IN THE GFS DATA FROM 06Z MONDAY
TO 12Z TUESDAY...THE OBVIOUS SHIFT IS FROM THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO A
MORE ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW BY DAY 7 OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
OLD ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE BLOCKING PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GENERAL TREND WILL CERTAINLY BE FOR MUCH LOWER POPS
PEAKING AT HIGH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POP IN THE MAX HEATING TIME
FRAME OF THE AFTERNOON AND FAVORING THE MTNS FOR MON AND TUES.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND GREATER ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESSES...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASON NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...PATCHY IFR DECK SHOULD ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS SOLAR HEATING EATS AWAY AT NUMEROUS THIN AREAS IN CLOUD LAYER
SEEN ON SATELLITE. IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY RETURN TO MVFR THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF VSBY RESTRICTION...AND NONE WILL BE
CARRIED OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING
A MID LEVEL SYSTEM. A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING THRU SC IS LIKELY TO
AFFECT AT LEAST THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD 16-17Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT REMAINING POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTN. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SE AT UNDER 10 KNOTS.
ELSEWHERE...IFR BEGINNING TO LIFT ATTM AND CIGS SHOULD RISE TO LOW
VFR TODAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR TONIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING...INCLUDING AT
KAVL. WITH CONFIDENCE LIMITED DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST...GUIDANCE VSBY VALUES
HAVE BEEN RAISED SUBSTANTIALLY. OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT ANY SITE THE
RECEIVES A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBY OR
WORSE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR
BOTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. MORNING STRATUS AND FOG IS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...YIELDING MAINLY DIURNAL
SHRA/TSRA. MORNING FOG WILL FAVOR THE MTN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT MED 78% LOW 58% HIGH 87% HIGH 92%
KGSP MED 77% LOW 59% HIGH 90% HIGH 94%
KAVL HIGH 84% LOW 53% MED 64% HIGH 98%
KHKY HIGH 82% LOW 52% MED 68% HIGH 93%
KGMU MED 76% MED 61% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 68% LOW 52% HIGH 80% HIGH 93%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
018-026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
FOR THE EAST COAST. THE HRRR SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOW
FOR THE EAST COAST THROUGH 00Z...SO DROPPED POPS BACK TO 20
PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE FLOW IS DEEPER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND THIS WILL NOT ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
TRAIN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD LIKE THEY HAVE THE PAST
FEW DAYS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY TRAIN ACROSS
COLLIER COUNTY SO FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPOTTED BY THE TOWER AT NAPLES
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES...AND THESE WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST THIS
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FOURTH OF JULY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIVE IN DRIER MID LEVEL AIR BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DROP ONE HALF INCH TO
AROUND 1.6 INCHES. HOWEVER...SHALLOW STREAMER SHOWERS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST OVER THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS OR CUBA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
EASTERN SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THIS WILL ALSO HAMPER SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY AFTER THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST.
THERE WILL STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO SURGE BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EAST. A
BRIEF WIND AND MOISTURE SURGE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM EAST
TO WEST ON SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO ROTATE SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD AROUND THE MASSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND BE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL MERGE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AS THEY BOTH TRAVEL
WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UPPER LOW...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS NOT GIVING IT ENOUGH TIME TO CLOSE
OFF. HOWEVER...THESE FEATURES NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THEY CAN
SOMETIMES DEVELOP. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE WESTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED WITH THE GFS...SO RAINFALL
CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO GET SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND THE NAPLES AREA. WINDS ARE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. THE BERMUDA
HIGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WHICH IS AT THE SAME
TIME BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTLINE. THE FORECAST REASONING IS FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESSES,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. FOR PBI, FXE, AND FLL KEPT
VCTS UNTIL 20Z. VCSH ARE INCLUDED AFTER 13Z FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS AND 15Z FOR NAPLES. FOR NAPLES VCTS IS INCLUDED UNTIL
01Z.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY BECOME LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 87 78 88 / 30 30 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 88 80 89 / 30 30 30 50
MIAMI 78 88 79 89 / 40 30 30 60
NAPLES 74 89 74 91 / 40 50 40 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
331 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION. AS OF
19Z...TWO WEAK WAVES WERE OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE SATELLITE
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
TOWERING CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OWNING TO THE WEAK
INHIBITION WITH SCT THUNDER SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS WHERE
COVERAGE IS SCATTERED. ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS ELSEWHERE
WARRANTED A SLIGHT CHC THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY AS THE LATEST RUC AND NAM ANALYSIS SHOW ML CAPE FROM
500-1000 J/KG WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 20 KTS. COULD NOT RULE
OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND PERHAPS GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO 750 MB. WITH THE STORMS BEING
HEAT DRIVEN SHOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THIS EVENING AS TEMPS
FALL TO THE LOW 60S.
STOUT EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY AS IT
CENTERS NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS
SETUP...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS CLOSEST TO THE
RELATIVE STRONGER FORCING. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
WITH THE ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING OVER THE PLAINS REGION.
INCREASED WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH SUSTAINED MORE ON THE SIDE
WITH THE NAM AND UKMET. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES
EVIDENT IN THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF ROLLING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THE EARLY EVENING OF THE 4TH CANT
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON BECOME MIXED OUT
WITH VERY LITTLE CIN...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS INTO THE
EVENING THINK ISOLATED STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY DUSK. COULD
ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE EVENING OF THE 4TH
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLOW CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER
TROF FINALLY STARTS TO TAKE A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE ISOLATED THUNDER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT CROSSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH MONDAY THE
FORECAST AREA RESIDES ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER HIGH WITH
PRECIP CHANCES RIDING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
TRANSITIONING UPPER FLOW MORE NORTHWESTERLY MAY BE ENOUGH TO LAY A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. AFTER TEMPERATURES
RISE BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY WEEK...COULD SEE
ANOTHER SLIGHT COOLDOWN IF THIS FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE TSRA
IS POSSIBLE AFT 20Z AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK THE WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE LEAVES CONFIDENCE LOW AND WILL LEAVE IN VCNTY THUNDER
THRU 01Z. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OUTSIDE TSRA AND WILL
MONITOR/AMEND IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO
GRADUALLY BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AFT 01Z TONIGHT. SPEEDS ATTM ARE
BLO 10 KTS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...CRAVEN
AVIATION...BOWEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
321 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A VERY WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRIMARY FEATURE IS STRONG BERMUDA HIGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY TO HAVE
USED THE RUC TO INITIALIZE POP GRIDS INTO THIS EVENING THEN
TRANSITION TO A BLEND OF THE NAM12...GFS40 ...CEMREG...SREF AND
ECMWF. FOR TEMPERATURE HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS WITH MOSG25. LATEST
VERIFICATION INDICATES HIGH BIAS SO HAVE LOWERED THE MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM A FEW DEGREES. FOR WIND HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND MOSG25.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WE ARE LOOKING FOR HOT, HUMID
WEATHER WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS. THERE REALLY ISN`T MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
WARM WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES THAT MAY
HELP SPARK THE CONVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. THIS
WILL ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT KFVE...KCAR AND
KHUL. IFR POSSIBLE KBHB AND KBGR.
SHORT TERM:
EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALLY WORSE CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, AND IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE NAM12 AND GFS40. WILL DECREASE WIND SPEED BY 20 PERCENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT THURSDAY BUT THIS
SHOULD BE OFF-SET BY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. LONG PERIOD WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BASED ON SPECTRAL
EXPECT PRIMARY WAVE GROUP SOUTH/8 SECONDS WITH SECONDARY SOUTHEAST
WAVE GROUP 14+ SECONDS. COMBINED SEA IS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
SCA.
SHORT TERM:
WE ARE LOOKING FOR SW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET, SO CONDITIONS
REMAINING A LITTLE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...TD
AVIATION...MIGNONE/FOISY
MARINE...MIGNONE/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
1016 AM PDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING
IN MORE VERY WARM WEATHER WITH ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
A TROUGH WILL APPROACH TOMORROW...WITH SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
COOL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.UPDATE...UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY TO A WARNING
AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MAJOR LIGHTNING OUTBREAK ON THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV. SHORT WAVE WILL STALL ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. 91
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 254 AM /
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING
IN MORE VERY WARM WEATHER WITH ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
A TROUGH WILL APPROACH TOMORROW...WITH SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
COOL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING WAS HAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOCALES NORTH OF
I-80. WITH THE SLOW MOVING NATURE...THESE STORMS PRODUCED SOME
ROBUST QPF AMOUNTS. GETTING GROUND TRUTH WAS DIFFICULT AS THESE
STORMS HAD TO MOVE OVER OBSERVERS OR REMOTE SENSING EQUIPMENT. OF
THE RAWS SITES IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...DOUBLE H CAME IN WITH 1.02 INCHES
AND DRY CANYON SHOWED 0.16 INCHES. IN NORTHWEST ELKO
COUNTY...ANTELOPE RAWS RECEIVED 0.09 INCHES. STORM MOTION WAS
GENERALLY SOUTH TO NORTH AT A SLOW 5 MPH OR SO. RADAR TRENDS THIS
MORNING AND THE HRRR GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...AND SO
SITES COULD SEE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION.
IT IS TURNING OUT TO BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE
LOOP THIS MORNING IS SHOWING DEBRIS CLOUD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. AS OF 1 AM...ELKO...WEST
WENDOVER...AND TONOPAH HAVE NOT DROPPED BELOW 80 DEGREES YET.
EXPECTING THE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO HEAT THINGS UP PRETTY QUICK. LOOKING AT ANOTHER
WARM DAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK. HAVE KEPT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING GOING FOR TODAY...AND WE SHOULD COOL OFF SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME...GOES GPS SOUNDER AND GPS MET DEPICTING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF RIGHT AROUND 0.80 FOR THE AUSTIN AREA AND WITH
ABOUT 1 INCH IN THE ELKO AREA. THE ONE INCH MEASURED AT ELKO WAS
DUE TO A RECENT SPIKE UP AS AN OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN THE NORTH
HELPED TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOT UP A
FEW DEGREES. MODELS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE MOISTURE WELL ENOUGH
AND THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF PW GRADIENT SETTING UP WITH
HUMBOLDT AND SOME OF ELKO COUNTY SEEING INCREASES TO ABOUT 0.90 TO
1 INCH AND OTHER LOCATIONS POSSIBLE SEEING RIGHT AROUND 0.75
INCHES. THIS POSES SOME ISSUES FIRE WEATHER-WISE AND THE
DISCUSSION WILL BE HANDLED BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. SLOW
STORM MOTION...0 TO 5 MPH...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE RULE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA AS THE 700-500MB HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION SETS UP
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM SPEEDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY...ABOUT 10-15 MPH. BEST CAPE VALUES...OF 400-800 J/KG
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HUMBOLDT...LANDER...AND NORTHWEST NYE COUNTIES. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS. FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF THIS AREA...HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE.
EXPECTING COVERAGE TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AGAIN BE WARM DUE TO DEBRIS CLOUD OVERHEAD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCOMING TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEING SUPPRESSED
SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...BUT
WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE RECEIVED. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A 250MB JET OF ABOUT 45-50 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEVADA. CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 600-1000
J/KG RANGE OVER HUMBOLDT...LANDER...AND NORTHWEST NYE COUNTIES.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30-35
KNOTS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-
LIVED...THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH BRINGS
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE GREAT BASIN WITH LI`S OF -3 TO
-4...ALSO JET SUPPORT WITH 45 TO 50 KNOT JET STREAK TO NORTH PUTTING
AREA IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WHICH WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION. EXPECT A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO PW`S
FROM .80 TO NEAR ONE INCH AND STORM MOTIONS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA AS TROUGH RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WEST AND RIDGE
BUILDS NEAR FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SEE TROUGH PUSH MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND RIDGE
RE-ESTABLISHING OVER GREAT BASIN WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S WITH SLIGHT COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THINNING LATER THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KWMC...KEKO AND KTPH AND 15
TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR KELY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WETTING
THE RUNWAYS ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS KWMC AND KTPH.
FIRE WEATHER...AFTER AN ACTIVE NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
CLEARING THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR FULL HEATING TO OCCUR. IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST WITH MODELS
SHOWING SOME KIND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT SETTING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. FIRE ZONES 467 AND 468 ARE EXPECTED TO SEE INCREASES
TO ABOUT 0.90 TO 1 INCH...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCHES WILL
BE SEEN OVER FIRE ZONES 455...470 AND THE EASTERN SECTION OF 457. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS OF 0 TO 5 MPH WILL PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FIRE
DISTRICT...EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 469 AND 470 WHERE
SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE FORECAST. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE DIVIDING LINE
BETWEEN MAINLY DRY STORMS VERSUS MAINLY WET STORMS. BEST CAPE
VALUES...400-800 J/KG...ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...FIRE ZONES 467 AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF 468...454...AND 457. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED
WET COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS. BUT FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THIS
AREA...HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THURSDAY...UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MAJOR LIGHTNING OUTBREAK ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV. SOME STORMS WILL BE WET
UNDER THE CORES BUT OVERALL MOSTLY DRY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL STALL ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO SCATTERED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COOLER THAN WHAT THEY
HAVE BEEN.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN
ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
203 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING ON THURSDAY WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY. BY
FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH DECREASED CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11AM UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO DISCUSSION. HAVE INCRESED POP
CHANCES IN THE FINGER LAKES AREA DUE TO PRESENCE OF STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POP
CHANCE IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES AS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD FROM EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
LATEST 13Z HRRR AND 12Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE PLAIN. MAIN THREAT WITH
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, AS
BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES AROUND 2".
ADDITIONALLY, ALSO WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THREAT
AS SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES REACHING 1500 J/KG AND
SURFACE CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES RIGHT NOW ARE AROUND 30KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL BE WATCHING THIS AFTERNOON, ESPCIALLY NEAR THE AREAS THAT
HAVE RECIEVED MAJOR FLOODING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
DESPITE MUCH OF THE EAST COAST REMAINING IN A VERY MOIST...SEMI-
TROPICAL AIRMASS. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK SHWR
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHWRS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA. THIS
SECONDARY AREA OF SHWRS TO OUR SOUTH IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY A
NORTHWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A 40-45 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH AREA 88D VWPS CONTINUE TO SAMPLE TO OUR SOUTH.
SEVERAL SITES REPORTING FOG THIS MORNING AS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY
AS THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS ENVELOPED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING NEAR 2" PER ALL AVAILABLE MODEL
DATA...CONCERNS THIS MORNING REMAIN FOCUSED ON A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WITH ANY SHWRS/STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IDENTIFIABLE
FORCING FEATURES AS MAIN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TODAY. WITH
VARIOUS MODELS OFFERING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 500-1000 JOULES OF CAPE
DURING PEAK HEATING...STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IF
ACTIVITY WERE TO DEVELOP. THAT SAID...CLOSE MODEL INSPECTION
SUGGESTS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING WHICH MAY SERVE AS A
MECHANISM TO GET THINGS GOING. DESPITE THIS...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE BASED ON WEAK NATURE OF
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL FEATURE. AS A RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO
ONLY OFFER A HIGH CHC POP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
BY TONIGHT...BULK OF AFTERNOON SHWR/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. LOWS THIS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER OFFERING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. AS DE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS...STRONGER WESTERLIES POSITIONED TO OUR WEST
WILL TEMPORARILY SETTLE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA. WITH RESPECT TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHWR/STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD OFFERING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AS REGION WARMS WILL INTO THE LWR TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. THAT SAID...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CENTERED ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. SPC DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
OUR REGION IN A "SEE TEXT" SUGGESTING ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. IN ADDITION...VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ANY SHWRS/STORMS LIKELY
TO BE EFFICIENT RAINERS THUS ALSO CONTINUING CONCERNS FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE TO CONTINUE BUILDING WITH MODEST
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING 850 TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR
18C BY AFTERNOON. WITH MAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINING
WELL WEST AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SPARSER COVERAGE OF SHWR/STORMS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRAY LOW 90S
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
TROF IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WILL ADVERTISE HIGH CHC POPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. REMAINING PERIOD WILL HAVE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WITH CHC POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND JUST
SLIGHT CHC FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SEASONAL MAX TEMPS AND ABOVE AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOIST, SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THROUGH LATE EVENING PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. AT KRME/KSYR,
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z FOR MVFR THUNDERSTORMS AS
BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN. AT KAVP, INCLUDED
A THREE HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR SHOWERS AS A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT CONVECTION OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED.
FOR TONIGHT, ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH VSBY/CIGS BEGINNING AROUND
06Z-08Z. AT KELM, IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z-12Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z.
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT S/SE OVERNIGHT THEN
SOUTHWEST 5-8 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT THROUGH MONDAY...AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. ALSO...EARLY EACH
AM...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CLDS/FOG ARE FORESEEN.
OTHWS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE DROPPED WARNNGS AT CONKLIN AND VESTAL AS THE LATEST FCSTS NOW
SHOWING LWRD QPF AND RVRS CREST BLO FLOOD. SHERBURNS CANCELLED AS
WEL WUITH THE RVR DROPPING BLO FLOOD STAGE. CONTD WARNING AT
WAVERLY AS THE RVR JUST TOUCHES FLOOD EARLY THU.
RAINFALL AMTS WERE MUCH LWR ON WED IN TURN LWRG CRESTS XPCTD AT
FCST POINTS. TODAY WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME WITH JUST SCT CONV CELLS
AND MUCH LWR PCPN INPUT TO RVRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/MSE
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1235 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING ON THURSDAY WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY. BY
FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH DECREASED CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11AM UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO DISCUSSION. HAVE INCRESED POP
CHANCES IN THE FINGER LAKES AREA DUE TO PRESENCE OF STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POP
CHANCE IN PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES AS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD FROM EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
LATEST 13Z HRRR AND 12Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE PLAIN. MAIN THREAT WITH
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, AS
BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES AROUND 2".
ADDITIONALLY, ALSO WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THREAT
AS SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES REACHING 1500 J/KG AND
SURFACE CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES RIGHT NOW ARE AROUND 30KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL BE WATCHING THIS AFTERNOON, ESPCIALLY NEAR THE AREAS THAT
HAVE RECIEVED MAJOR FLOODING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
DESPITE MUCH OF THE EAST COAST REMAINING IN A VERY MOIST...SEMI-
TROPICAL AIRMASS. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK SHWR
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHWRS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA. THIS
SECONDARY AREA OF SHWRS TO OUR SOUTH IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY A
NORTHWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A 40-45 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH AREA 88D VWPS CONTINUE TO SAMPLE TO OUR SOUTH.
SEVERAL SITES REPORTING FOG THIS MORNING AS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY
AS THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS ENVELOPED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING NEAR 2" PER ALL AVAILABLE MODEL
DATA...CONCERNS THIS MORNING REMAIN FOCUSED ON A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WITH ANY SHWRS/STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IDENTIFIABLE
FORCING FEATURES AS MAIN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TODAY. WITH
VARIOUS MODELS OFFERING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 500-1000 JOULES OF CAPE
DURING PEAK HEATING...STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IF
ACTIVITY WERE TO DEVELOP. THAT SAID...CLOSE MODEL INSPECTION
SUGGESTS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING WHICH MAY SERVE AS A
MECHANISM TO GET THINGS GOING. DESPITE THIS...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE BASED ON WEAK NATURE OF
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL FEATURE. AS A RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO
ONLY OFFER A HIGH CHC POP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
BY TONIGHT...BULK OF AFTERNOON SHWR/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. LOWS THIS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER OFFERING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THURSDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. AS DE
AMPLIFICATION OCCURS...STRONGER WESTERLIES POSITIONED TO OUR WEST
WILL TEMPORARILY SETTLE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA. WITH RESPECT TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHWR/STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD OFFERING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AS REGION WARMS WILL INTO THE LWR TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. THAT SAID...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CENTERED ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. SPC DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
OUR REGION IN A "SEE TEXT" SUGGESTING ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. IN ADDITION...VERY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ANY SHWRS/STORMS LIKELY
TO BE EFFICIENT RAINERS THUS ALSO CONTINUING CONCERNS FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE TO CONTINUE BUILDING WITH MODEST
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING 850 TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR
18C BY AFTERNOON. WITH MAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINING
WELL WEST AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SPARSER COVERAGE OF SHWR/STORMS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRAY LOW 90S
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH
TROF IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WILL ADVERTISE HIGH CHC POPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. REMAINING PERIOD WILL HAVE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WITH CHC POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND JUST
SLIGHT CHC FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SEASONAL MAX TEMPS AND ABOVE AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SLY FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTS TODAY. SOME PTCHY IFR FOG THIS MRNG AS
A RESULT OF ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MIX AFT SUNRISE. VFR
CONDS THRU THE DAY MAY BE OCNLY INTERRUPTED BY MVFR SHWRS AS HTG
DVLPS CONV. TRWS SHD BE ISLTD ENUF TO NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM. A RETURN TO VFR AND LGT WINDS AFT SUNSET.
.OUTLOOK...
THU NGT THROUGH SUN...AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED
EACH AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL. ALSO...EARLY EACH
AM...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CLDS/FOG ARE FORESEEN.
OTHWS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE DROPPED WARNNGS AT CONKLIN AND VESTAL AS THE LATEST FCSTS NOW
SHOWING LWRD QPF AND RVRS CREST BLO FLOOD. SHERBURNS CANCELLED AS
WEL WUITH THE RVR DROPPING BLO FLOOD STAGE. CONTD WARNING AT
WAVERLY AS THE RVR JUST TOUCHES FLOOD EARLY THU.
RAINFALL AMTS WERE MUCH LWR ON WED IN TURN LWRG CRESTS XPCTD AT
FCST POINTS. TODAY WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME WITH JUST SCT CONV CELLS
AND MUCH LWR PCPN INPUT TO RVRS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/MSE
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DGM
HYDROLOGY...
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO NORTHERN MISSOURI
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. A WEAK
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
IS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO PENETRATE THE DRY AIR OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 70S. AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE STATE
TONIGHT...SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...PIECE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WEAK LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF FEATURES SHOULD BRING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BKN TO OVC DECK TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SPOTTY SHOWERS EITHER CLOSER TO THIS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND HAVE LEFT AN ISOLATED MENTION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL REFLECTION WILL EXIT FAR
NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING. ANTICIPATE
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND SPOTTY SHOWERS UNTIL THESE FEATURES
DEPART. IN THE AFTERNOON...THE NAM DEVELOPS UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT ITS TOUGH TO
IDENTIFY A TRIGGER. CONDITIONS ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BECOME MORE
HOSTILE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SINCE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH AT THIS TIME. AS
RESULT...NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD STILL SEE A DECENT CU FIELD BUILD THAT WILL KEEP
SKIES IN THE PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE. HIGHS NEAR 80 AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE TROF AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OF WI BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WRESTLED WITH THE IDEA OF MENTIONING
AT LEAST ISOLD DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ON FRI/SAT...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG BUT NO OBVIOUS TRIGGER. OPTED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS DRY
FCST INTACT...BUT WILL NEED TO REVISIT THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.
AFTER THE WEAK TROF SHIFTS EAST...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NW WI ON SUNDAY...SAG SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN STALL OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
FRONT MAY SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS C/EC WI...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IN THESE DETAILS IS STILL QUITE LOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PCPN/
SKY COVER...ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO ARRIVE TONIGHT. SHOULD
SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING.
SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TONIGHT THAT COULD LOCALLY
LOWER CIGS TO MVFR.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC