Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/02/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1051 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...LATE NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION STILL GOING OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SUNNIER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS WELL. THERE IS FAIR
CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND WESTERN HALF OF THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THERE ARE A COUPLE OTHER
BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND AS WELL. DIFFICULT FINDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURE IN THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BEASTLY UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S F OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH 50S F OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE COOLED OFF A TAD
ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING`S SOUNDINGS. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE
INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WON`T CHANGE MUCH.
.AVIATION..STILL ON THE FENCE CONCERNING "TEMPO" FOR TSRA AT DIA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO FIGURE IT OUT IN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN CO. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS LOW PRES RESIDWES
OVER UTAH AND WRN CO. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY ESE LOW LVL FLOW
EAST OF THE MTNS. OVERALL INSTABILITY BASED ON SOUNDINGS SHOWS
CAPES GENERALLY RANGING FM 500-1000 J/KG BY AFTN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE FOOTHILLS.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WAS PRETTY LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
PLAINS ON SAT DUE TO SLIGHT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT COOLING TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
BETTER CHC FOR TSTMS. WITH ESE LOW LVL FLOW AND MDT NLY FLOW SHEAR
PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLD MARGINAL SVR STORM OR TWO.
IN THE MTNS EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT SO
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 80S OVER NERN CO.
FOR TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE STRENGTHEING SELY LOW LVL FLOW OVER NERN
CO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS NERN CO. THIS
TYPE OF SET UP COULD LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL STORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS FOR
THIS SCENARIO.
LONG TERM...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS
THE PREVAILING IDEA OF COOLER AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER
REMAINS. FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 4 OF THE FORECAST...NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WHILE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT LOWER
LEVELS. ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...BUT THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. STORM MOTIONS OUT OF THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
80S WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO DE-STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME CHANGES ARE STARTING TO BE INDICATED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF
THE FORECAST. FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS
AMPLITUDE ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMING AT MID LEVELS THAT WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK...AND
MAY ALSO DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS NEW
SCENARIO IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY OR MAY NOT COME TO PASS...SO
FOR NOW WILL HANG ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ONLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES. THE GFS MOS IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THESE
VALUES ARE NOT BEING ACCEPTED AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION...A WEAK CYCLONE WAS WEST OF DIA AS WNDS HAVE BEEN SELY
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP WANTS TO MOVE THIS FEATURE EAST OF
DIA BY 15Z WITH LIGHT NWLY WINDS AND THEN SOUTHWARD BY 18Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NELY. THRU THE AFTN THE RAP MOVES IT OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE WITH A MORE ESE COMPONENT. AS FOR STORMS THE BEST
CHC WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF DIA HOWEVER THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS CAPPED THIS AFTN SO A STORM OR TWO COULD AFFECT THE
AIRPORT BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS . TONIGHT TSTM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SLY AFTER 03Z.
HYDROLOGY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY. UP TO
ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN COULD OCCUR IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES...SO
COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING IF A STORM MOVES ACROSS ANY OF THE
BURN AREAS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1048 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM NRN CALIF/NRN NEV INTO SRN ID. THIS DRIER
AIR SHOULD START FILTERING DOWN INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS DRIER AIR THOUGH...A SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA AND BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM12 IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE
WHILE GFS/EC AND HRRR REALLY ONLY FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
JUANS IN PARTICULAR. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT AND ADJUST AS
NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW ESTABLISHED NEAR LAS VEGAS AND WILL
EVENTUALLY PARK ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN...KEEPING
OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING DRIER AIR GETTING
ENTRAINED AROUND THE NORTHWEST QUAD OF THE RIDGE...AND SLOWLY
INCHING ITS WAY AROUND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE RIDGE. SUBTLE
DRYING WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS...BRINGING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS
THE WEEK WEARS ON. HOWEVER...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN
THE RIDGE TO GIVE US ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH QPF
VALUES UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HOLDING AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND SOME PRIMING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
A FEW STORMS WORK INTO THE MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER
STAGE...WITH NARROW STREETS OF WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K...BUT THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY TERRAIN DRIVEN AND GUSTY
DURING PEAK HEATING. OUTFLOW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AS THEY DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS.
TEMPS RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE PLUS SIDE OF NORMAL
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF OUR LOWER
VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE BRUSHES NW COLORADO IN THE EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY ENHANCE LATE DAY CONVECTION AND THEN INTRODUCES A DRIER AIR
MASS IN ITS WAKE. LATE EVENING STORMS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ESPECIALLY NORTH. THIS IS BEST HANDLED IN THE GFS. THIS WILL BRING
DIMINISHED LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL DRY LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN A THREAT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. MOST STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
TUESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A
NORTH FLOW OVER THIS FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES NUDGE DOWN A DEGREE
OR TWO. LATE-DAY MAINLY-DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND NW COLORADO...SCATTERED IN SW COLORADO.
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
STORMS AS MOISTURE FIELDS DRY OUT UNDER THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
SOME HINT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAKDOWN A BIT AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK WITH ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS MAY SEND
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...WITH AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLATED
RANGE FOR NOW AND HOPE THIS TREND CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS. SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z NOON MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ON TAP TODAY DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES...KASE AND KEGE MAY SEE VCTS AND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
WILL PUT IN TAFS FOR THOSE SITES. KRIL MAY ALSO SEE A PASSING
STORM SO VCTS FOR THEM LOOKS GOOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREDOMINANT TODAY THOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND UNDER ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT JUN 29 2013
A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING HIGHER
TERRAIN. TODAY`S STORMS WILL AGAIN GENERALLY BE HIGH-BASED PRODUCING
ONLY SMALL RAIN CORES BUT MORE WIDESPREAD DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE VALID FROM NOON TO
10 PM MDT FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WHERE
FUELS ARE NOT CONSIDERED CRITICALLY DRY.
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER THERE
WILL STILL BE A FEW DIURNAL AND TERRAIN BASED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203-207-
290>293.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ482>484-486-
487.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JDC/JOE
LONG TERM...JDC/JOE
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
342 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN CO. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS LOW PRES RESIDWES
OVER UTAH AND WRN CO. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY ESE LOW LVL FLOW
EAST OF THE MTNS. OVERALL INSTABILITY BASED ON SOUNDINGS SHOWS
CAPES GENERALLY RANGING FM 500-1000 J/KG BY AFTN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE FOOTHILLS.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WAS PRETTY LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
PLAINS ON SAT DUE TO SLIGHT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT COOLING TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
BETTER CHC FOR TSTMS. WITH ESE LOW LVL FLOW AND MDT NLY FLOW SHEAR
PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLD MARGINAL SVR STORM OR TWO.
IN THE MTNS EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT SO
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 80S OVER NERN CO.
FOR TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE STRENGTHEING SELY LOW LVL FLOW OVER NERN
CO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS NERN CO. THIS
TYPE OF SET UP COULD LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL STORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS FOR
THIS SCENARIO.
.LONG TERM...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS
THE PREVAILING IDEA OF COOLER AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER
REMAINS. FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 4 OF THE FORECAST...NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WHILE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT LOWER
LEVELS. ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...BUT THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. STORM MOTIONS OUT OF THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
80S WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO DE-STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME CHANGES ARE STARTING TO BE INDICATED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF
THE FORECAST. FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS
AMPLITUDE ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMING AT MID LEVELS THAT WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK...AND
MAY ALSO DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS NEW
SCENARIO IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY OR MAY NOT COME TO PASS...SO
FOR NOW WILL HANG ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ONLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES. THE GFS MOS IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THESE
VALUES ARE NOT BEING ACCEPTED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK CYCLONE WAS WEST OF DIA AS WNDS HAVE BEEN SELY
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP WANTS TO MOVE THIS FEATURE EAST OF
DIA BY 15Z WITH LIGHT NWLY WINDS AND THEN SOUTHWARD BY 18Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NELY. THRU THE AFTN THE RAP MOVES IT OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE WITH A MORE ESE COMPONENT. AS FOR STORMS THE BEST
CHC WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF DIA HOWEVER THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS CAPPED THIS AFTN SO A STORM OR TWO COULD AFFECT THE
AIRPORT BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS . TONIGHT TSTM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SLY AFTER 03Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY. UP TO
ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN COULD OCCUR IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES...SO
COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING IF A STORM MOVES ACROSS ANY OF THE
BURN AREAS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
937 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY...
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 930PM THE WMFNT CONTINUES TO FOCUSING SHRA+ WHICH WERE
TRAINING FM WEST VIRGINIA TO NR BGM INTO HERKIMER CNTY/W FULTON
AND MONTGOMERY WHERE FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IS IN PROGRESS AND
HAS BEEN EXTENDED TIL 230AM. THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE TRAIN OF
HEAVY RAIN SOUTHWEST OF IPT...WITH SOUTHERN END TO WV IS STARTING
TO SHIFT WESTWARD. HWVR HEAVY RAINS FM NR BGM INTO SOUTHERN
HERKIMER/W FULTON/MONTGOMERY AND SW HAMILTON COUNTY WILL CONTINUE
ANOTHER 2-4 HOURS WITH 1-1.5 INCHES IN ALREADY SOAKED/FLOODED
AREAS. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION IN THE FLOOD EMERGENCY
AREAS. THESE SHRA+ WILL LIFT SLOWLY N AND DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT....BCMG SCT -SHRA. ATTM HRRR CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE
SITUATION WELL.
IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS TUESDAY. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED...MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO RENEWED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS.
TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT REMAIN AND
MAINTAIN THREAT OF WAA SURGES (OVERRUNNING) OF SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN
ASSOC WITH WMFNT/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE
BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD.
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL
AT.
WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL
PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O
INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS
WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY
AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY
THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP.
NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS.
LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE
SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE EFP MAJOR W ATLC ANTICYCLONE AT SFC AND 500HPA (KNOWN
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH) RETROGRADES TO THE ATLC SEABOARD..AS THE
500HPA TROF RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS.
THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FCA FRI...THE GFS
SHIFTS IT OUT OF THE FCA FOR THE WEEKEND AND BACK MONDAY. THE GEM
DISPLACES IT FURTHER N AND W TO W PERIPHERY...AND ECMWF HAS IT
DRIFTING IN AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE VARIABLE SUNSHINE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH CHC MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS. THE THREAT WILL
BE LEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S TO ARND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS EVENING GENERALLY MVR CONDS WITH CIGS OVC015-030 AND VSBY
3-5SM IN RA+ AND BR IN NUMEROUS SHRA+. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL ENSUE IN FG
AND SCT -SHRA WITH AREAS IFR BLO 1SM FG AND OVC008.
TUE MRNG...CIGS WILL RETURN MAINLY MVFR W/BKN-OVC020-030 WITH
VSBY P6SM ...SCT-BKN CIGS OVC015 VSBY 3SM -SHRA/TSTMS
SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-SAT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
810 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY...
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 8PM THE WMFNT IS FOCUSING SHRA+ WHICH WERE TRAINING FM NR BGM
INTO HERKIMER CNTY WHERE A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IS IN PROGRESS.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA+ IS LIFTING NE FM CATSKILLS TWRD CAP DISTRICT
AND SCT. OVER NEXT 3 HRS. THESE SHRA+ WILL LIFT SLOWLY N AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT....BCMG SCT -SHRA. ATTM HRRR CONTINUES TO
HANDLE THE SITUATION WELL.
IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS TUESDAY. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED...MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO RENEWED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS.
TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT REMAIN AND
MAINTAIN THREAT OF WAA SURGES (OVERRUNNING) OF SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN
ASSOC WITH WMFNT/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE
BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD.
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL
AT.
WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL
PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O
INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS
WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY
AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY
THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP.
NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS.
LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE
SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE EFP MAJOR W ATLC ANTICYCLONE AT SFC AND 500HPA (KNOWN
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH) RETROGRADES TO THE ATLC SEABOARD..AS THE
500HPA TROF RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS.
THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FCA FRI...THE GFS
SHIFTS IT OUT OF THE FCA FOR THE WEEKEND AND BACK MONDAY. THE GEM
DISPLACES IT FURTHER N AND W TO W PERIPHERY...AND ECMWF HAS IT
DRIFTING IN AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE VARIABLE SUNSHINE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH CHC MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS. THE THREAT WILL
BE LEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S TO ARND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS EVENING GENERALLY MVR CONDS WITH CIGS OVC015-030 AND VSBY
3-5SM IN RA+ AND BR IN NUMEROUS SHRA+. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL ENSUE IN FG
AND SCT -SHRA WITH AREAS IFR BLO 1SM FG AND OVC008.
TUE MRNG...CIGS WILL RETURN MAINLY MVFR W/BKN-OVC020-030 WITH
VSBY P6SM ...SCT-BKN CIGS OVC015 VSBY 3SM -SHRA/TSTMS
SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-SAT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOT HE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH THE 00Z MODELS NOW HINTING THAT THE
FRONT MAY BE POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN BEFORE. THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINS IN PLACE...SANDWICHING THE
CWA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CONTINUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS SET UP AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO INJECT VERY MOIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW
VALUES REACH AROUND 2 INCHES LATER TODAY...SO IF/WHEN ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT
WITH ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS AS WE SEE LOWER INSTABILITY
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...ALONG WITH
WEAKER SHEAR. THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED BY 15Z.
THE MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN/CONVECTION. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MESO MODELS AND THE
HANDLING OF ANY MORNING DEVELOPMENT...THEN LEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
08Z HRRR STILL KEEPS THINGS DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHILE 00Z
SPC WRF WAS HINTING AT SOMETHING FORMING ALONG THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING. THIS WAS INDICATED ON THE 10Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER
THE DELMARVA REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ON GOING OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE DRY THROUGH 14Z...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASED
INTO THIS AFTN. THINKING SCT COVERAGE AT MOST FOR THE AFTN PERIOD
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING NOT EXPECTED TILL
TONIGHT AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST PROVIDING LESS OF A
FORCING MECHANISM TO TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TEMPS A BIT EASIER TO FORECAST FOR...USING A BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR
HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE 80S. IF PCPN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN OR THE MORNING FOG/CLOUDS COVERS LINGERS
LONGER THAN FORECASTED...COULD SEE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES OF
NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MAKE THE ROUNDS BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE PERSISTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AS THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF SEEING AT LEAST SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW VALUES STAY AROUND
2 INCHES DURING THE PERIOD.
THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS TREND...WE COULD SEE THE PRECIP ENDING SOONER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF STILL SQUEEZE THROUGH
ONE MORE SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD THAT COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE INSTABILITY OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING TO
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION. SO WILL CONTINUE POPS WITH SCT
WORDING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WHILE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...SEVERE WX
CONTINUES TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH LOWER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
VALUES...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO PATCHY
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIP
EARLIER IN THE DAY. TEMPS HOVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY MON NIGHT INTO TUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS QUICKER SOLUTION.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED WITH SIMILAR THINKING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.
BROAD FULL LATITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE RETROGRADING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THE TROUGH WILL
BE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TO THE
GULF COAST. DURING THE PERIOD THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDING. AT THE SURFACE THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW WILL BE
WEAKENING ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS TOWARD
THE COAST. CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND
REGIONS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED. BY
LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE JUST SLIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO COAST.
IN ADDITION A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS
AND LOWS FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY...WARMER INLAND AND COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THEN TEMPERATURES EVEN ACROSS LONG ISLAND WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS A LITTLE WARMER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR WEST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE...WELL TO
THE EAST.
STRATUS HAD MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE NYC AND LOWER HUDSON
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFT. THE
EXCEPTION BEING KGON WHERE IMPROVEMENT ONLY TO MVFR IS
FORECAST...BUT THERE MAY A VFR WINDOW FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFT.
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL WORK HERE WITH A REPEAT OF THE
STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.
CONVECTION MAINLY TO IMPACT NW GATE THIS AFT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE TO THE NW OF THE
AREA...SERVING AS THE MAIN FOCUS. A BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
OVERNIGHT IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
LIGHT SLY FLOW THIS MORNING,..INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS.
IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ELEVATED...BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FT TODAY. WHILE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN SUBSIDING BY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST...PRODUCING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...STILL EXPECTING
SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT INTO AT LEAST TUES. WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUES. WINDS
REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS DURING THE PERIOD.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY AS EARLY AS WED AS THE HIGH TAKES
MORE CONTROL OF THE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
730 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A
DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WEAK UPPER
IMPULSES SHOULD RIDE UP ALONG IT TO PRODUCE BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSES LOOK
TO BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH TIME...THIS TROUGH
WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION A LITTLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...ONLY A VERY SIMPLE RE-TOOLING OF THE GRIDS FOR
THIS UPDATE. STILL HAD TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY IN OUR REGION THROUGH ABOUT 900
AM. AFTER THAT...SHOWER AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASES...TO ONLY SLIGHT DURING THE FORENOON...BUT TO CHANCE
CATEGORY (AND SOME LIKELY POP THRESHOLD IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES).
TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. THIS WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK THROUGH THE 70S THROUGH NOON WITH
SOME SUNSHINE. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS.
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPLIT INTO TWO
PORTIONS...WITH ENERGY LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA...AND ANOTHER PIECE
SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY HELPING TO MAINTAIN A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE H20 LOOP INDICATED NOT ONE
BUT TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES ROTATING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...ONE IN SW MISSOURI AND THE OTHER ONE ENTERING NW MINNESOTA.
IT LOOKS AS IF BOTH OF THESE WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER BUT NOT
TODAY.
FOR LATER TODAY NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BE THE FOCI FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE UP
AGAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY BE AROUND
5.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND
30KTS. THE WET-BULB ZERO REMAINED ELEVATED OVER 10,000 FEET AT TIMES
CLOSE TO 12,000 FEET.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL UNLIKELY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THAT SAID...ANY DISCREET CELL COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WIND AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE THEME
OF THE DAY...WE WILL FORECAST "GENERIC" THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED. THE HRRR INDICATED
STORMS TODAY COULD ACTUALLY FORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...OVER THE CATSKILLS AND DRIFT NORTHWARD. A VERY WEAK
STAGNANT BOUNDARY LIES SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION...JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...SO THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION.
WITH H850 TEMPERATURES HOOVERING AROUND +15C THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO WARM READINGS TOPPING OUT 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 60S...WITH SOME SPOTS
PUSHING 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE AGAIN...AS WE LOOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY WE INITIALLY SHOULD
SEE CONVECTION DECREASE. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
OVER SW MISSOURI) WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES...3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHOWER THREAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. CLOUDS AND THE SURGE IN HUMIDITY WILL
KEEP IT MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
THE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT (-U) OFF THE 06Z GEFS LOOKS TO REACH
2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT REALLY UNTIL
TUESDAY.
THE FIRST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ON BY LATE MONDAY
FOLLOWED THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS WHICH
ONE WOULD BE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS
MODELS HITTING HARDER WITH THE FIRST ONE ON MONDAY DESPITE THE FACT
THE ANOMALIES FOR QPF (PER CSTAR RESEARCH) INDICATED TUESDAY COULD
HAVE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
EITHER WAY...THE SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A STRONG STRIP OF VORTICITY
WHICH IN TURN WILL PRODUCE PRETTY GOOD UPWARD MOTION FOCUSED ALONG
THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL STILL BE CLOSE OR RIGHT OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WE EXPECTED LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...CAPPED POPS AT 54 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A BREAK THEN MORE
ACTIVITY.
ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT REALLY THERE AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED (UNDER 1000 J/KG) AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. FOR NOW...WE WILL JUST MENTION THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE ANTICIPATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WENT ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE 75-80
RANGE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHEN (MONDAY OR TUESDAY) WE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH JUST YET. MORE ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...BUT POPS WILL FINALLY SHOW A
SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A VERY BLOCKY PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...
WITH A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE NORTHEAST WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TROUGH AND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE BERMUDA HIGH. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE BERMUDA HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER WESTWARD WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
POSSIBLY REACHING A POSITION NOT TOO FAR OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ALTHOUGH SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
WELL.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY EARLY
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...DECREASING TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER VLIFR FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CONDITIONS BECOME VFR AT
KPSF BY 14Z. KPOU/KGFL AND KALB WILL BE VFR FROM THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR THE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...HAVE FORECAST
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT TIMING THE
SHOWERS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST FROM 16Z AND BEYOND. LATE TONIGHT A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE SHOWERS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 07Z AT KPOU...08Z AT
KPSF...09Z AT KALB...AND 10Z AT KGFL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 8 KTS OR
LESS...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THESE COULD CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE RH WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...NEARLY 100 PERCENT EVERY
NIGHT...DROPPING TO NO LOWER THAN 50-75 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE
FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...TWO STRONGER MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE AVERAGE RIVER BASIN FORECASTS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO 1-2 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS A GOOD BET THERE
WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF VARIATION OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WET
GROUND COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER OR EVEN LOCALIZED FLOODING ANY
TIME THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCES INCREASING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 4 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A
SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL ON THESE
DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
711 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOT HE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH THE 00Z MODELS NOW HINTING THAT THE
FRONT MAY BE POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN BEFORE. THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINS IN PLACE...SANDWICHING THE
CWA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CONTINUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS SET UP AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO INJECT VERY MOIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW
VALUES REACH AROUND 2 INCHES LATER TODAY...SO IF/WHEN ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT
WITH ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS AS WE SEE LOWER INSTABILITY
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...ALONG WITH
WEAKER SHEAR. THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED BY 15Z.
THE MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN/CONVECTION. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MESO MODELS AND THE
HANDLING OF ANY MORNING DEVELOPMENT...THEN LEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
08Z HRRR STILL KEEPS THINGS DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHILE 00Z
SPC WRF WAS HINTING AT SOMETHING FORMING ALONG THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING. THIS WAS INDICATED ON THE 10Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER
THE DELMARVA REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ON GOING OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE DRY THROUGH 14Z...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASED
INTO THIS AFTN. THINKING SCT COVERAGE AT MOST FOR THE AFTN PERIOD
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING NOT EXPECTED TILL
TONIGHT AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST PROVIDING LESS OF A
FORCING MECHANISM TO TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TEMPS A BIT EASIER TO FORECAST FOR...USING A BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR
HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE 80S. IF PCPN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN OR THE MORNING FOG/CLOUDS COVERS LINGERS
LONGER THAN FORECASTED...COULD SEE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES OF
NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MAKE THE ROUNDS BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE PERSISTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AS THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF SEEING AT LEAST SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW VALUES STAY AROUND
2 INCHES DURING THE PERIOD.
THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS TREND...WE COULD SEE THE PRECIP ENDING SOONER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF STILL SQUEEZE THROUGH
ONE MORE SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD THAT COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE INSTABILITY OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING TO
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION. SO WILL CONTINUE POPS WITH SCT
WORDING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WHILE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...SEVERE WX
CONTINUES TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH LOWER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
VALUES...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO PATCHY
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIP
EARLIER IN THE DAY. TEMPS HOVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY MON NIGHT INTO TUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS QUICKER SOLUTION.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED WITH SIMILAR THINKING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.
BROAD FULL LATITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE RETROGRADING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THE TROUGH WILL
BE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TO THE
GULF COAST. DURING THE PERIOD THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDING. AT THE SURFACE THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW WILL BE
WEAKENING ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS TOWARD
THE COAST. CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND
REGIONS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED. BY
LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE JUST SLIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO COAST.
IN ADDITION A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS
AND LOWS FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY...WARMER INLAND AND COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THEN TEMPERATURES EVEN ACROSS LONG ISLAND WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS A LITTLE WARMER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR WEST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE...WELL TO
THE EAST.
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TO BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE
STRATUS...WHICH LIKE LAST NIGHT WAS ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS OF WESTWARD EXPANSION...BUT IT HAS
BEEN SHORT LIVED. THUS...PLAN TO RUN WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE OF
FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPER THAN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO REVISE IN SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES TO VFR
IF THERE CONTINUE TO BE NO SIGNS OF STRATUS EXPANDING OR DEVELOPING
FARTHER WEST.
SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 16-18Z SUN. EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH IN THE TAFS.
LIGHT SLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE
DURING THE DAY SUN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NGT-THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHRA AND/OR TSTMS. IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS
IN MAINLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ELEVATED...BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FT TODAY. WHILE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN SUBSIDING BY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST...PRODUCING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...STILL EXPECTING
SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT INTO AT LEAST TUES. WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUES. WINDS
REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS DURING THE PERIOD.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY AS EARLY AS WED AS THE HIGH TAKES
MORE CONTROL OF THE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...SEARS
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A
DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WEAK UPPER
IMPULSES SHOULD RIDE UP ALONG IT TO PRODUCE BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSES LOOK
TO BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH TIME...THIS TROUGH
WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION A LITTLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...ONLY A VERY SIMPLE RE-TOOLING OF THE GRIDS FOR
THIS UPDATE. STILL HAD TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY IN OUR REGION THROUGH ABOUT 900
AM. AFTER THAT...SHOWER AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASES...TO ONLY SLIGHT DURING THE FORENOON...BUT TO CHANCE
CATEGORY (AND SOME LIKELY POP THRESHOLD IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES).
TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. THIS WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK THROUGH THE 70S THROUGH NOON WITH
SOME SUNSHINE. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS.
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPLIT INTO TWO
PORTIONS...WITH ENERGY LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA...AND ANOTHER PIECE
SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY HELPING TO MAINTAIN A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE H20 LOOP INDICATED NOT ONE
BUT TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES ROTATING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...ONE IN SW MISSOURI AND THE OTHER ONE ENTERING NW MINNESOTA.
IT LOOKS AS IF BOTH OF THESE WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER BUT NOT
TODAY.
FOR LATER TODAY NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BE THE FOCI FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE UP
AGAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY BE AROUND
5.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND
30KTS. THE WET-BULB ZERO REMAINED ELEVATED OVER 10,000 FEET AT TIMES
CLOSE TO 12,000 FEET.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL UNLIKELY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THAT SAID...ANY DISCREET CELL COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WIND AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE THEME
OF THE DAY...WE WILL FORECAST "GENERIC" THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED. THE HRRR INDICATED
STORMS TODAY COULD ACTUALLY FORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...OVER THE CATSKILLS AND DRIFT NORTHWARD. A VERY WEAK
STAGNANT BOUNDARY LIES SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION...JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...SO THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION.
WITH H850 TEMPERATURES HOOVERING AROUND +15C THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO WARM READINGS TOPPING OUT 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 60S...WITH SOME SPOTS
PUSHING 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE AGAIN...AS WE LOOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY WE INITIALLY SHOULD
SEE CONVECTION DECREASE. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
OVER SW MISSOURI) WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES...3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHOWER THREAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. CLOUDS AND THE SURGE IN HUMIDITY WILL
KEEP IT MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
THE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT (-U) OFF THE 06Z GEFS LOOKS TO REACH
2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT REALLY UNTIL
TUESDAY.
THE FIRST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ON BY LATE MONDAY
FOLLOWED THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS WHICH
ONE WOULD BE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS
MODELS HITTING HARDER WITH THE FIRST ONE ON MONDAY DESPITE THE FACT
THE ANOMALIES FOR QPF (PER CSTAR RESEARCH) INDICATED TUESDAY COULD
HAVE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
EITHER WAY...THE SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A STRONG STRIP OF VORTICITY
WHICH IN TURN WILL PRODUCE PRETTY GOOD UPWARD MOTION FOCUSED ALONG
THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL STILL BE CLOSE OR RIGHT OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WE EXPECTED LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...CAPPED POPS AT 54 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A BREAK THEN MORE
ACTIVITY.
ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT REALLY THERE AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED (UNDER 1000 J/KG) AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. FOR NOW...WE WILL JUST MENTION THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE ANTICIPATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WENT ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE 75-80
RANGE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHEN (MONDAY OR TUESDAY) WE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH JUST YET. MORE ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...BUT POPS WILL FINALLY SHOW A
SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A VERY BLOCKY PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...
WITH A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE NORTHEAST WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TROUGH AND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE BERMUDA HIGH. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE BERMUDA HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER WESTWARD WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
POSSIBLY REACHING A POSITION NOT TOO FAR OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ALTHOUGH SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
WELL.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY EARLY
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...DECREASING TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SINCE KALB/KPOU/KPSF GOT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...WILL KEEP VSBY FROM ANY FOG THAT FORMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE OCNL MVFR RANGE. AT KGFL LOWERED THE VSBY/CIG
TO OCNL IFR FOR ANY FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOR THE
POSSIBLE FOG AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...HAVE FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
(06Z MONDAY). THERE WILL BE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENING...BUT TIMING THE SHOWERS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME
SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FROM 16Z AND BEYOND.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY...THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LAT SUN NITE-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THESE COULD CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE RH WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...NEARLY 100 PERCENT EVERY
NIGHT...DROPPING TO NO LOWER THAN 50-75 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE
FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...TWO STRONGER MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE AVERAGE RIVER BASIN FORECASTS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO 1-2 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS A GOOD BET THERE
WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF VARIATION OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WET
GROUND COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER OR EVEN LOCALIZED FLOODING ANY
TIME THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCES INCREASING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 4 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A
SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL ON THESE
DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
452 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A
DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WEAK UPPER
IMPULSES SHOULD RIDE UP ALONG IT TO PRODUCE BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSES LOOK
TO BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH TIME...THIS TROUGH
WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION A LITTLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POSSIBLE SPRINKLES
OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER AND WESTERN ULSTER COUNTIES...RADARS
QUITE...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
WE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED. THIS COULD BE
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS.
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPLIT INTO TWO
PORTIONS...WITH ENERGY LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA...AND ANOTHER PIECE
SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY HELPING TO MAINTAIN A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE H20 LOOP INDICATED NOT ONE
BUT TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES ROTATING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...ONE IN SW MISSOURI AND THE OTHER ONE ENTERING NW MINNESOTA.
IT LOOKS AS IF BOTH OF THESE WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER BUT NOT
TODAY.
FOR TODAY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
BE THE FOCI FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AGAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 5.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 30KTS. THE WET-BULB ZERO REMAINS ELEVATED
OVER 10,000 FEET AT TIMES CLOSE TO 12,000 FEET.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL UNLIKELY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THAT SAID...ANY DISCREET CELL COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WIND AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE THEME
OF THE DAY...WE WILL FORECAST "GENERIC" THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
COVERAGE TODAY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED. THE HRRR INDICATED STORMS
TODAY COULD ACTUALLY FORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...OVER THE CATSKILLS AND DRIFT NORTHWARD. A VERY WEAK
STAGNANT BOUNDARY LIES SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION...JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...SO THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUNSHINE...MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CU
FIELD SPREADS ENOUGH TO BECOME A CEILING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES HOOVERING AROUND +15C THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO WARM
READINGS TOPPING OUT 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 60S...WITH SOME SPOTS PUSHING
70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE AGAIN...AS WE LOOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY WE INITIALLY SHOULD
SEE CONVECTION DECREASE. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
OVER SW MISSOURI) WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES...3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHOWER THREAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. CLOUDS AND THE SURGE IN HUMIDITY WILL
KEEP IT MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
THE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT (-U) OFF THE 06Z GEFS LOOKS TO REACH
2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT REALLY UNTIL
TUESDAY.
THE FIRST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ON BY LATE MONDAY
FOLLOWED THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS WHICH
ONE WOULD BE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS
MODELS HITTING HARDER WITH THE FIRST ONE ON MONDAY DESPITE THE FACT
THE ANOMALIES FOR QPF (PER CSTAR RESEARCH) INDICATED TUESDAY COULD
HAVE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
EITHER WAY...THE SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A STRONG STRIP OF VORTICITY
WHICH IN TURN WILL PRODUCE PRETTY GOOD UPWARD MOTION FOCUSED ALONG
THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL STILL BE CLOSE OR RIGHT OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WE EXPECTED LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...CAPPED POPS AT 54 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A BREAK THEN MORE
ACTIVITY.
ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT REALLY THERE AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED (UNDER 1000 J/KG) AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. FOR NOW...WE WILL JUST MENTION THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE ANTICIPATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WENT ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE 75-80
RANGE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHEN (MONDAY OR TUESDAY) WE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH JUST YET. MORE ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...BUT POPS WILL FINALLY SHOW A
SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A VERY BLOCKY PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...
WITH A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE NORTHEAST WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TROUGH AND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE BERMUDA HIGH. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE BERMUDA HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER WESTWARD WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
POSSIBLY REACHING A POSITION NOT TOO FAR OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ALTHOUGH SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
WELL.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY EARLY
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...DECREASING TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SINCE KALB/KPOU/KPSF GOT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...WILL KEEP VSBY FROM ANY FOG THAT FORMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE OCNL MVFR RANGE. AT KGFL LOWERED THE VSBY/CIG
TO OCNL IFR FOR ANY FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOR THE
POSSIBLE FOG AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...HAVE FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
(06Z MONDAY). THERE WILL BE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENING...BUT TIMING THE SHOWERS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME
SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FROM 16Z AND BEYOND.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY...THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LAT SUN NITE-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THESE COULD CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE RH WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...NEARLY 100 PERCENT EVERY
NIGHT...DROPPING TO NO LOWER THAN 50-75 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE
FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...TWO STRONGER MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE AVERAGE RIVER BASIN FORECASTS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO 1-2 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS A GOOD BET THERE
WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF VARIATION OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WET
GROUND COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER OR EVEN LOCALIZED FLOODING ANY
TIME THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCES INCREASING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 4 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A
SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL ON THESE
DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
416 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOT HE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH THE 00Z MODELS NOW HINTING THAT THE
FRONT MAY BE POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN BEFORE. THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINS IN PLACE...SANDWICHING THE
CWA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CONTINUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS SET UP AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO INJECT VERY MOIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW
VALUES REACH AROUND 2 INCHES LATER TODAY...SO IF/WHEN ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT
WITH ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS AS WE SEE LOWER INSTABILITY
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...ALONG WITH
WEAKER SHEAR.
THE MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN/CONVECTION. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MESO MODELS AND THE
HANDLING OF ANY MORNING DEVELOPMENT. 06Z HRRR KEEPS THINGS DRY
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHILE 00Z SPC WRF HINTS AT SOMETHING FORMING
ALONG THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING. WILL START OFF WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS INLAND...AND CHC POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS AFTN.
THINKING SCT COVERAGE AT MOST FOR THE AFTN PERIOD WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND FORCING NOT EXPECTED TILL TONIGHT AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST PROVIDING LESS OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO
TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TEMPS A BIT EASIER TO FORECAST FOR...USING A BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR
HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE 80S. IF PCPN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...COULD SEE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES OF
NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MAKE THE ROUNDS BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE PERSISTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AS THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF SEEING AT LEAST SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW VALUES STAY AROUND
2 INCHES DURING THE PERIOD.
THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS TREND...WE COULD SEE THE PRECIP ENDING SOONER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF STILL SQUEEZE THROUGH
ONE MORE SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD THAT COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE INSTABILITY OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING TO
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION. SO WILL CONTINUE POPS WITH SCT
WORDING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WHILE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...SEVERE WX
CONTINUES TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH LOWER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
VALUES...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO PATCHY
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIP
EARLIER IN THE DAY. TEMPS HOVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY MON NIGHT INTO TUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS QUICKER SOLUTION.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED WITH SIMILAR THINKING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.
BROAD FULL LATITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE RETROGRADING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THE TROUGH WILL
BE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TO THE
GULF COAST. DURING THE PERIOD THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDING. AT THE SURFACE THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW WILL BE
WEAKENING ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS TOWARD
THE COAST. CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND
REGIONS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED. BY
LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE JUST SLIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO COAST.
IN ADDITION A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS
AND LOWS FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY...WARMER INLAND AND COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THEN TEMPERATURES EVEN ACROSS LONG ISLAND WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS A LITTLE WARMER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR WEST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE...WELL TO
THE EAST.
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TO BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE
STRATUS...WHICH LIKE LAST NIGHT WAS ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS OF WESTWARD EXPANSION...BUT IT HAS
BEEN SHORT LIVED. THUS...PLAN TO RUN WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE OF
FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPER THAN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO REVISE IN SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES TO VFR
IF THERE CONTINUE TO BE NO SIGNS OF STRATUS EXPANDING OR DEVELOPING
FARTHER WEST.
SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 16-18Z SUN. EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH IN THE TAFS.
LIGHT SLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE
DURING THE DAY SUN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NGT-THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHRA AND/OR TSTMS. IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS
IN MAINLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ELEVATED...BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FT TODAY. WHILE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN SUBSIDING BY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST...PRODUCING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...STILL EXPECTING
SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT INTO AT LEAST TUES. WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUES. WINDS
REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS DURING THE PERIOD.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY AS EARLY AS WED AS THE HIGH TAKES
MORE CONTROL OF THE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
744 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ESTF UPDATE FOLLOWING HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING.
18Z MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON HEAVIER PCPN BEFORE MORNING. THERE
HAS BEEN A PATTERN TO QUICK STARTS, SO WANT TO SEE HOW THE FCST
LLVL JET VERIFIES OFF THE 00Z SOUNDINGS. REGARDLESS WHAT DOES NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 10Z IS LIKELY TO THEN OCCUR AFTER 10Z.
FFA CONTD. PWAT AXIS CONTS 2+ ALONG THE I 95 CORRIDOR AND VAPOR
HAS CONNECTION TO NEAR FLORIDA.
THE FOCUS IS ON SOME SORT OF IMPULSE OR TWO RIDING NWD ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND CAUSING ONE OR TWO MORE PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN.
THERE PROBABLY WONT BE MUCH THUNDER WITH IT.
THINKING MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP IN OUR AREA AFTER 04Z
AS LOW LVL WINDS ORGANIZE A NEW SPEED MAX ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST.
THAT WOULD PROBABLY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO YIELD HEAVY QPF.
HOURLY RFALLS EARLY TUESDAY 1 TO 2 INCHES WHERE IT RAINS HARD THE
ENTIRE HOUR. TRAVEL DELAYS AND TRAFFIC DETOURS FM LANE AND ROAD
CLOSURES EXPECTED BUT THE TIMING AND WHERE IS THE ISSUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY...BELIEVE WE HAVE FF POTENTIAL BUT WE`RE NOT SURE IF ITS
ALL CONFINED TO THE MORNING OR IF THERE IS LATE AFTN REDEVELOPMENT
FURTHER WEST WHERE IT HEATS UP? MLCAPE OF 1000J TUE AFTN.
SOME DRYING IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTN BUT MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
WE SHOULD HAVE A MORNING BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR I95...THE AFTN
MAY BE MORE RELATED TO HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTION
TENDING TO BE RESTRICTED TO EASTERN PA.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS WERE 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/1 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 PATTERN REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING. THIS ALLOWS
THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST TO RETROGRESS BACK ACROSS THE
ERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER THEN DRIER PATTERN ACROSS OUR
REGION.
TUE NIGHT THRU FRI...WE REMAIN IN THE DEEPER SRLY FLOW WITH SEVERAL
S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE DAILY CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIER RAINS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S (NORTH) AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (SOUTH). IT WILL
REMAIN HUMID AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN 70S WITH SOME
MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH.
FRI NIGHT THRU MONDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD (SOUTH OF OUR AREA)...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
MORE WRLY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP FLOW OF HIGHER PW AIR TO BE
CUT OFF FOR OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS BOTH SAT AND SUN AS THE GFS/EC SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THRU THE REGION. MOSTLY WENT WITH HPC TEMPS/POPS FOR THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 90S IN MANY AREAS AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
00Z TAFS TAKE CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO IFR OR CLOSE TO IFR WRT TO
CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY IFR IN PCPN TOWARD AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WE THEN KEEP THE TERMINALS PREDOMINATELY MVFR (DUE TO CIGS) THE
REST OF TUESDAY.
THIS EVENING CARRIED SHOWERS AT KACY AND KMIV. OTHER TERMINALS
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. CIGS THAT ARE STARTING MVFR ARE
LOWERED AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. IFR CIGS ARE CARRIED FROM THE
START AT KACY AND KMIV. THE WINDS WITH THE IFR CIGS NEAR THE COAST
ARE PARALLELING THE COAST AND WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO STRUGGLE TO
MOVE WEST THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO
10 KTS.
OVERNIGHT IFR TO NEAR IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS.
LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS ARE FORECAST. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE
EXISTING FORECAST AND THE LATEST 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS TO WHEN TO
BRING HEAVIER IFR PRODUCING SHOWERS BACK TO THE TERMINALS. WE ARE
NOW BRIDGING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE MORNING. WINDS DURING
THE MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.
FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS AND FOR NOW WE JUST
CARRIED A PROB30 GROUP. OTHERWISE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST WITH VFR VSBYS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AND AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR BUT LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING EARLY MORNING FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOONS EARLY EVENING.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA FOR NEAR 5 SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS
PERSISTENT S TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN BIASED HIGH.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FOR DE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
SCA FLAG EXTENDED INTO TUE NIGHT WITH MARGINAL 5FT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SCA WITH 3 TO 4
FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TUE EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL PLAIN.
GIVEN THE RECORD RAINS OF JUNE IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND THE CONTD
PWAT AXIS OF 2+ INCHES ALONG I95 THROUGH AT LEAST TUE... AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED AND FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, THIS COULD BE A LOCALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITH CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND LOW
LYING VULNERABLE AREAS. PLAN FOR TRAVEL DELAYS AND DETOURS IF AND
WHEN FLOODING FLOODING REDEVELOPS IN PART OF THE AREA.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME QUESTION ON THE MAIN LOCATION OF THE MORE
FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT IT APPEARS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
ESPECIALLY POINTS TO THE WEST ARE OF MORE CONCERN.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LEAD TO FLOODING AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED
FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING CORES, COMBINED WITH MANY AREAS OF
RATHER LOW 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FCST TODAY FOR THE NJ AND
DE BEACHES.
A MDT RISK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THEREAFTER... LOW OR MDT WED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER A
SECONDARY 15 SECOND SWELL APPEARS IN OUR WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD RAINFALLS IN JUNE IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY.
CLM`S FOR JUNE ARE POSTED BUT NO TIME TO APPEND ANY RECORD
REFERENCE DATA.
DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS FOR JULY 1 ARE BELOW.
ACY 1.26 1922
PHL 1.04 1877
ILG 1.08 2009
ABE 1.12 1960 NEW RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED TODAY
TTN 1.75 2005
GED 1.80 1996
RDG 1.18 1922
MPO 1.76 1976
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING WITH NUMEROUS
SHRA OVER COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES MOVING NORTH IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN INSISTING AS SUCH WITH
MOST INTERIOR ACTIVITY GONE BY 03Z OR 11 PM THIS EVENING. IT DOES
SHOW SOME CONTINUED SMALL SHRA OVER THE ATLANTIC MOVING ONSHORE
DURING THE NIGHT. DUE TO THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW, CANNOT RULE OUT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST ABOUT AT ANY TIME OVER THE WATERS OF
BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. THUS, HAVE INDICATED HIGHER CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND THE ISOLATED TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
AND KEPT CHANCE FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.
KOB
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF SET)...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW WILL SEE A REPEAT OF TODAY.
GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS OF THIS EVENING,
HAVE ONLY KEPT VCSH IN THE TAFS, BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN AN
ISOLATED STORM WILL NOT IMPACT A TAF SITE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME.
WINDS ARE AN ISSUE THIS EVENING, MAINLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
GUSTY SHOWERS. THE OVERALL PREVAILING FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTH EAST, BUT CONVECTION IS OVERCOMING THIS AND BOUNCING THE
DIRECTIONS ALL OVER THE PLACE. SO, HAVE VRB AT SEVERAL SITES FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS, AND THEN WENT WITH A GENERAL SE DIRECTION.
HOWEVER, CONVECTION MAY CURTAIL THIS ALL EVENING, SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AS FAR AS DIRECTION GOES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH STORMS
CONCENTRATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE GULF COAST. A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE DAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIMIT STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE...BUT STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NAPLES
REGION AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
CONTEMPLATED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT REGION...BUT STORMS HAVE BEEN
MOVING QUICKLY WITH ENOUGH GAPS IN BETWEEN THE RAIN TO BE ABLE TO
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT. SO HELD OFF FOR NOW.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE
GULF COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...ONCE
AGAIN CONCENTRATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 598 DECAMETERS AND THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL GET PUSHED WESTWARD TO OVER MISSOURI. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
WILL ALSO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE FLOW SHIFTS
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
MORE STREAMER SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA JUST IN TIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...BRINGING
IN DRIER AIR AND ENDING THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
SO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S...AND
THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST MAY GET INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...AND EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
415 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE LAST DAY OF JUNE. NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW RIDES NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER-TOP A
LARGE STUBBORN RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. FLOW THEN DIPS
BACK TO THE SOUTH CARVING OUT A SIGNIFICANT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WITH AN AXIS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL ACT TO
FURTHER SHARPEN THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THIS
SHARPENING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL HELP TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE DEEP S/SW FLOW AND RESULTING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. COLUMN PW VALUES ARE ALREADY HIGH WITH THE 30/00Z
KTBW SOUNDING MEASURING AROUND 2.10". THESE VALUES WILL HOLD AND
LIKELY RISE SOME (POSSIBLY SURPASSING 2.25") BY LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED
THROUGH THE FL STRAITS/NORTHERN CUBA...AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. THIS
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS KEEPING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND IT STEADY FROM
THE S/SW. THE DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN
IS IDEAL FOR NOCTURNAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH THEN BEGINS TO CROSS ONSHORE LATE NIGHT.
ADD IN THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EXPECT SCT-NMRS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ROLLING IN FROM THE GULF BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE
COAST UNDER THE BEST SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE. SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG FOR
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH FROM TAMPA BAY ALONG THE SUN COAST TO GET ACTIVE
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP AND INSTABILITY RAPIDLY INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TODAY...
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A STRONG PATTERN RECOGNITION
SIGNAL SUGGEST THAT THE SCT SHWR/STORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ONLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE AND STRENGTHEN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
OVER-TOP THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS...ALONG WITH MODEST SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT/QG FORCING FOR LIFT AND FAVORABLE (FOR SUMMER) UPPER JET
PLACEMENT SHOULD PROVIDE A DAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE (AND LIKELY) WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL COVERAGE. BEST RAIN CHANCES FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD AND THEN THERE IS
SOME SIGNAL THAT THIS AXIS OF BEST LIFT WILL SHIFT INLAND AND SOUTH
OF I-4 BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT DETAILED WITH
THE FORECAST AS EVEN IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE FAVORED FROM ONE TIME OF
DAY TO ANOTHER...JUST ABOUT ANY PLACE COULD SEE A SHOWER AT JUST
ABOUT ANY TIME TODAY. IT SIMPLY WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS
GOING AND SUSTAINED. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
(TYPICAL FOR SUMMER)...BUT THE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS...AND THESE AREA
THAT FIND THEMSELVES UNDER SUCH A MESO-SCALE FEATURE COULD PICK UP
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT. THERE WILL BE SOME
SUN TO START OUT THE DAY...BUT AS THE CONVECTION GETS ESTABLISHED
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVERSPREADS...FEEL A DECENT CIRRUS CANOPY
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY STILL
LOOK TO BE THE TIME-FRAME WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST. UPPER TROUGH POSITION PROVIDES THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR
LIFT DURING THIS TIME...AND THE UPPER JET IS ALSO IN ITS MOST
FAVORABLE POSITION...PLACING MUCH OF OUR REGION IN ITS DIVERGENT
RRQ. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL THE SYNOPTIC PLAYERS IN PLACE...IT
JUST WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET CONVECTION GOING. MIGHT BE A BIT
PREMATURE AT THIS POINT...BUT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
SEEN TODAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH TO BE
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT
TO OBSERVE THE RAINFALL PATTERNS DURING THE DAY AND RE-EVALUATE THE
THREAT. EITHER WAY...APPEARS THAT THE EASTERN GULF WILL BECOME VERY
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ASHORE
BY SUNRISE NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL THEN LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR
THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INLAND.
TUESDAY...
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN A TRANSITION TIME DURING TUESDAY. UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BE SUPPRESSED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
BUILDING/RETROGRADING OF UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUPPRESSION FROM THIS RIDGE BY
THIS POINT...BUT IT WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THE SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE FOR
LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND SHIFT OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW
MORE SOUTH/SE AS OPPOSED TO SW. AT LEAST FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...THIS SUBTLE CHANGE WILL HELP CONFINE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN JUST OFFSHORE. BEST RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALONG THE NATURE COAST WHERE THE
FLOW IS MOST STILL FROM THE SOUTH. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...
SHOWERS/STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...BUT NOT BE TO THE EXTEND SEEN ON
MONDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT CONTINUES TO RECEDE.
FOR TODAY AND MONDAY...THE STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHOPPY
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD.
THE WIND FLOW AND SURF WILL BRING AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL DECREASE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REGIME CHANGE FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE U/L FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY BLOCKED...A GRADUAL RETROGRADE IN THE U/L SYSTEMS WILL
ALLOW THE U/L LOW WHICH HAS BROUGHT A PROLONGED WET PATTERN TO THE
REGION TO PUSH WEST OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A STRONG
U/L RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHING WEST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE LAST WET DAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALLOWING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THURSDAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY...WILL BE
A TRANSITION DAY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT GRADUALLY ADVECTING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL DECREASE
AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW HOLDING THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES. AS THE U/L RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO BAKE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE...COULD BE HOTTEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS SUMMER. COMBINATION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LOW END
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
ADDED HEAT AND AVAILABLE CAPE...DELAYED ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SPREAD ONSHORE
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCT LCL BKN CU 020-030 THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES SPREADING INLAND BY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND LCL IFR VSBYS IN REGIONS OF HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
GRADIENT FLOW WILL PROVIDE A STEADY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
A PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL SPEEDS POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM TARPON SPRINGS NORTHWARD....AND THEN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN ACTIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DEGREE OF
CONVECTION AND THE VERY WARM WATERS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS. DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT THROUGH AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS SHIFTING OUR WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 78 86 77 / 70 60 80 50
FMY 89 76 87 76 / 80 60 70 30
GIF 91 73 87 74 / 70 30 70 30
SRQ 90 79 88 77 / 70 60 80 50
BKV 90 74 87 72 / 70 50 80 40
SPG 89 79 86 78 / 70 60 80 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1057 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT INLAND AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PRODUCE
TIMES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND INTO
THE REGION AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...CONVEYOR BELT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES AS CONFIRMED BY 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECT
A GENERAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...JUSTIFYING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG/EAST OF I-95 AS SUGGESTED BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING RADAR TRENDS AND SOME GUIDANCE...OR WHETHER THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT INLAND AND INTO AREAS
ALONG/WEST OF I-95 OVERNIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE.
MEANWHILE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN CHARLESTON
COUNTY...LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY PRECIPITATION WILL PREVAIL.
HOWEVER...IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY INCREASES AS SUGGESTED BY
INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
TRAJECTORY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...PERHAPS LATER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH A SERIES OF POTENT SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER WET DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN DUE TO THE
VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DEEP RIDGE AND STRONG ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OVER
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES.
CURRENTLY...WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST DAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BAND OF HIGH PWATS MOVES BACK TO THE
WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. WEDNESDAY STILL FEATURES LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT A
BIT LOWER CLOSE TO THE COAST. BY THURSDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DRY
OUT CONSIDERABLY AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TAKES ON A MORE PROMINENT
ROLE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. AS SUCH...THURSDAY FEATURES MUCH MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CHANCE POPS. ALSO...WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVERHEAD...HEIGHTS RISE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GOOD AND FEATURES
A MUCH MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THE
STRONG ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING NEARLY RIGHT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A
PROGRESSIVE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE EACH DAY. POPS WILL FEATURE A
DECREASING TREND EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THANKS TO THE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...BUT ALSO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRONOUNCED NVA ALOFT. FRIDAY POPS
FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCES TO CHANCE INLAND...WHICH THEN DECREASE TO
JUST SLIGHT CHANCES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT AND HEIGHTS
INCREASING...TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 90S THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF VFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME SHOULD TRANSLATE TO OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS/OTHER IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME. AS BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PUSH INLAND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...LIMITED MENTION TO VCTS AFTER 18Z.
HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHED DURING THE FINAL 6 HOURS
OF THE 00Z TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERIODICALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH INLAND
WILL KEEP A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND RESULT IN A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR. WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE
WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PUSH
COMBINED SEAS AS HIGH AS 5-8 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH ALL NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING THE
HARBOR...FALLING JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER LOCAL WINDS AT ANY TIME
TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY IMPROVE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THOUGH 6 FT SEAS WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BRINGING WITH IT A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...REDUCED
WINDS...AND LOWER SEAS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTED SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-15 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND
4-5 FT BEYOND.
RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES WHERE ONSHORE
WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 4 FT LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE
COAST. THE RISK WILL REMAIN MODERATE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES AND LOW ALONG THE GEORGIA BEACHES WHERE WINDS AND
SWELLS WILL BE WEAKER.
WE SHOW A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALL BEACHES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO MARGINAL SWELL COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A PERSISTENT REGIME FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTS NORTH OVER THE REGION...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED
BETWEEN DEEP LAYER/BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND UNUSUALLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
PLETHORA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES ALONG WITH EPISODES OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD DUMP 2-4 INCHES
OF RAIN WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES COULD BECOME COMMON BY TUESDAY EVENING.
BECAUSE MUCH OF THE REGION IS RUNNING WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR PRECIPITATION...AND BECAUSE THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS/WEEK...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ROUGHLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP
SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS ARCHING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN SRN IDAHO. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE SE ALONG THE
MONTANA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED BUILDUPS
FROM MACKAY NE THROUGH LEADORE AND SOUTH ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER.
THE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH EDGING NORTH ACROSS
NEVADA MONDAY AS THE MONSOONAL PUSH SURGES NORTH AROUND THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH (NEVADA/OREGON) RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BLEED OVER INTO THE
CNTRL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. BY TUESDAY...THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL WRAP FULLY AROUND THE HIGH
AND ACROSS SE IDAHO PROVIDING A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO LOFT SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO SRN IDAHO FUELING
ONGOING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. SOMETIME THURSDAY...A PAC SHORT-WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO WRN CANADA PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE
PROVINCES SHUNTING THE HIGH SOUTH INTO SRN NEVADA. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN WAFFLING ON THE STRENGTH...DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE INCOMING
WAVE WITH CONCOMITANT SHIFTS IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MENTION OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME
ALTHOUGH REMAINING UNSEASONABLY WARM. HUSTON
&&
.AVIATION...TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. HRRR IS HINTING AT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NAM MOS PUTS
A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT EACH SITE. MUCH LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY THOUGH...SO AM LEANING
MORE TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER. HINSBERGER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE UNTIL
AROUND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE BRINGING POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS SEEM BRING THE
MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. BY WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE FIELD EXPANDS
INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS AS UPPER RIDGING
FLATTENS. AFTER MID-WEEK...WEATHER WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HINSBERGER
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1253 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TODAY TO INCREASE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
I-55 AND ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS AREA TODAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S LOOKS ON TRACK.
568 DM 500 MB LOW NEAR INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY MONDAY/TUE KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND NEXT FEW DAYS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND MID EVENING HOURS UNTIL SUNSET OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1250 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
LARGE 570 DM 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TO
RETROGRADE SW INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY 18Z/1 PM MONDAY AND WEAKEN
A BIT TO 574 DM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM I-55
EAST THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING LASTING LONGEST AT CMI AND DEC. MVFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION WITH PIA LIKELY STAYING DRY MUCH OF
TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AGAIN AFTER
15Z/10 AM MONDAY AND SET UP FURTHER WEST INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY
TOO AS UPPER LEVEL LOW GETS INTO SOUTHERN IL. BREEZY NNE WINDS
10-17 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 17-23 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO
6-10 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 16-20
KTS AFTER 15Z/10 AM MON.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW AND TROUGH
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL US THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER MAINLY
DIURNAL PCPN OVER IL.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR THIS EVENING DISPLAYS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IN
WITH JET FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO AR TO THE CENTRAL EAST COAST. CORE
OF 500MB COLD AIR OVER IL/IN AT 00Z WHICH WAS THE ALOFT TRIGGER
FOR THE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY THROUGHOUT THE MID MS AND OH
VALLEY REGIONS. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX OVER
NORTHEAST IA AT 00Z ROTATING SOUTH AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN MO TODAY...PULLING THE MAIN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD WITH IT.
EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OF CONVECTION TODAY...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH 1/2 OF CWA. INSTABILITY SIMILAR
TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND 12 AND TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE 46 TO 48 RANGE WITH CAPE ABOUT 1000. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
IN RAPPING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED
THE POPS WITH SOME OF THIS CONVECTION THIS MORNING REACHING
CWA...BEFORE WEAKENING AS PART THE HRRR AND OTHER MESO MODELS.
WITH MO VORT MAX AND UPPER LOW FURTHER SOUTH...BEST AREA FOR LATER
REDEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SOUTHERN 1/3 OF
STATE.
MODELS THEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START OF UPPER LOW THEN
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WITH THAT TREND...THE
UPPER LOW BRINGS THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION BACK WITH
IT...SPREADING INCREASING POPS STARTING ON MONDAY BACK INTO THE CWA
AND THEN OVER ALL THE REGION TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS START
TO DIFFER SOME ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LOW IN THE REGION...INCREASED THE POPS A BIT OVER AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS KEEP THE FILLING UPPER SYSTEM OVER WEST IL
AND JUST WEST OF REGION...CONTINUING THE TREND OF TRIGGERING
DIURNAL PCPN WITH GRADUAL SLOW WARMING OF TEMPS AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINS.
BY THURSDAY THE LOW IS OPENING UP AND THE TROF WEAKENING AND STARTS
TO MOVE OUT TO NORTH. ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH SYSTEM BRINGING IN
MOIST MORE SUMMER TYPE OF AIRMASS FOR FRI AND INTO WEEKEND.
GOETSCH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TODAY TO INCREASE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
I-55 AND ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS AREA TODAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S LOOKS ON TRACK.
568 DM 500 MB LOW NEAR INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY MONDAY/TUE KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND NEXT FEW DAYS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 643 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
MVFR CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE TAFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY FOR SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING INTO WESTERN IL FROM
INDIANA MIGHT PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL VORTICITY THAT MAY HELP
COLD-AIR FUNNELS DEVELOP. WE KEPT A VCSH GOING FOR MOST TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WITH VCTS FOR THE EAST LOCATIONS OF CMI/DEC...WHERE
THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER COLD POOL.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 12G22KT
IN MOST AREAS. CLEARING AND LESS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
00Z...AS WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KT WITH REDUCED MIXING.
SHIMON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW AND TROUGH
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL US THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER MAINLY
DIURNAL PCPN OVER IL.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR THIS EVENING DISPLAYS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IN
WITH JET FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO AR TO THE CENTRAL EAST COAST. CORE
OF 500MB COLD AIR OVER IL/IN AT 00Z WHICH WAS THE ALOFT TRIGGER
FOR THE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY THROUGHOUT THE MID MS AND OH
VALLEY REGIONS. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX OVER
NORTHEAST IA AT 00Z ROTATING SOUTH AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN MO TODAY...PULLING THE MAIN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD WITH IT.
EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OF CONVECTION TODAY...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH 1/2 OF CWA. INSTABILITY SIMILAR
TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND 12 AND TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE 46 TO 48 RANGE WITH CAPE ABOUT 1000. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
IN RAPPING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED
THE POPS WITH SOME OF THIS CONVECTION THIS MORNING REACHING
CWA...BEFORE WEAKENING AS PART THE HRRR AND OTHER MESO MODELS.
WITH MO VORT MAX AND UPPER LOW FURTHER SOUTH...BEST AREA FOR LATER
REDEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SOUTHERN 1/3 OF
STATE.
MODELS THEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START OF UPPER LOW THEN
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WITH THAT TREND...THE
UPPER LOW BRINGS THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION BACK WITH
IT...SPREADING INCREASING POPS STARTING ON MONDAY BACK INTO THE CWA
AND THEN OVER ALL THE REGION TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS START
TO DIFFER SOME ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LOW IN THE REGION...INCREASED THE POPS A BIT OVER AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS KEEP THE FILLING UPPER SYSTEM OVER WEST IL
AND JUST WEST OF REGION...CONTINUING THE TREND OF TRIGGERING
DIURNAL PCPN WITH GRADUAL SLOW WARMING OF TEMPS AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINS.
BY THURSDAY THE LOW IS OPENING UP AND THE TROF WEAKENING AND STARTS
TO MOVE OUT TO NORTH. ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH SYSTEM BRINGING IN
MOIST MORE SUMMER TYPE OF AIRMASS FOR FRI AND INTO WEEKEND.
GOETSCH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW AND TROUGH
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL US THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER MAINLY
DIURNAL PCPN OVER IL.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR THIS EVENING DISPLAYS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IN
WITH JET FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO AR TO THE CENTRAL EAST COAST. CORE OF
500MB COLD AIR OVER IL/IN AT 00Z WHICH WAS THE ALOFT TRIGGER FOR THE
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY THROUGHOUT THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS.
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX OVER NORTHEAST IA AT 00Z
ROTATING SOUTH AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MO TODAY...PULLING
THE MAIN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD WITH IT. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OF CONVECTION TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE SOUTH 1/2 OF CWA. INSTABILITY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH
500MB TEMPS AROUND 12 AND TOTAL TOTALS IN THE 46 TO 48 RANGE WITH
CAPE ABOUT 1000. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER IN RAPPING SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED THE POPS WITH SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION THIS MORNING REACHING CWA...BEFORE WEAKENING AS PART
THE HRRR AND OTHER MESO MODELS. WITH MO VORT MAX AND UPPER LOW
FURTHER SOUTH...BEST AREA FOR LATER REDEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SOUTHERN 1/3 OF STATE.
MODELS THEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START OF UPPER LOW THEN
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WITH THAT TREND...THE
UPPER LOW BRINGS THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION BACK WITH
IT...SPREADING INCREASING POPS STARTING ON MONDAY BACK INTO THE CWA
AND THEN OVER ALL THE REGION TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS START
TO DIFFER SOME ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LOW IN THE REGION...INCREASED THE POPS A BIT OVER AREA.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS KEEP THE FILLING UPPER SYSTEM OVER WEST IL
AND JUST WEST OF REGION...CONTINUING THE TREND OF TRIGGERING DIURNAL
PCPN WITH GRADUAL SLOW WARMING OF TEMPS AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BEGINS.
BY THURS THE LOW IS OPENING UP AND THE TROF WEAKENING AND STARTS
TO MOVE OUT TO NORTH. ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH SYSTEM BRINGING IN
MOIST MORE SUMMER TYPE OF AIRMASS FOR FRI AND INTO WEEKEND.
GOETSCH
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 643 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
MVFR CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE TAFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY FOR SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING INTO WESTERN IL FROM
INDIANA MIGHT PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL VORTICITY THAT MAY HELP
COLD-AIR FUNNELS DEVELOP. WE KEPT A VCSH GOING FOR MOST TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WITH VCTS FOR THE EAST LOCATIONS OF CMI/DEC...WHERE
THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER COLD POOL.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 12G22KT
IN MOST AREAS. CLEARING AND LESS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
00Z...AS WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KT WITH REDUCED MIXING.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
307 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE PERSISTANT UPPER LOW AND TROUGH
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL US THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER MAINLY
DIURNAL PCPN OVER IL.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR THIS EVENING DISPLAYS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IN
WITH JET FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO AR TO THE CENTRAL EAST COAST. CORE OF
500MB COLD AIR OVER IL/IN AT 00Z WHICH WAS THE ALOFT TRIGGER FOR THE
CONVTN EARLIER TODAY THROUGHOUT THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS.
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX OVER NORTHEAST IA AT 00Z
ROTATING SOUTH AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MO TODAY...PULLING
THE MAIN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD WITH IT. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OF CONVECTION TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE SOUTH 1/2 OF CWA. INSTABILITY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH
500MB TEMPS AROUND 12 AND TOTAL TOTALS IN THE 46 TO 48 RANGE WITH
CAPE ABOUT 1000. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER IN RAPPING SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED THE POPS WITH SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION THIS MORNING REACHING CWA...BEFORE WEAKENING AS PART
THE HRRR AND OTHER MESO MODELS. WITH MO VORT MAX AND UPPER LOW
FURTHER SOUTH...BEST AREA FOR LATER REDEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SOUTHERN 1/3 OF STATE.
MODELS THEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START OF UPPER LOW THEN
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WITH THAT TREND...THE
UPPER LOW BRINGS THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION BACK WITH
IT...SPREADING INCREASING POPS STARTING ON MONDAY BACK INTO THE CWA
AND THEN OVER ALL THE REGION TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS START
TO DIFFER SOME ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LOW IN THE REGION...INCREASED THE POPS A BIT OVER AREA.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS KEEP THE FILLING UPPER SYSTEM OVER WEST IL
AND JUST WEST OF REGION...CONTINUING THE TREND OF TRIGGERING DIURNAL
PCPN WITH GRADUAL SLOW WARMING OF TEMPS AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BEGINS.
BY THURS THE LOW IS OPERNING UP AND THE TROF WEAKENING AND STARTS
TO MOVE OUT TO NORTH. ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH SYSTEM BRINGING IN
MOIST MORE SUMMER TYPE OF AIRMASS FOR FRI AND INTO WEEKEND.
GOETSCH
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1132 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO
DWINDLE. AM WATCHING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AS THEY ROTATE SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND UPPER LOW. IF THEY CAN HOLD
TOGETHER...THEY COULD POTENTIALLY SPILL INTO EAST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT. NAM/LOCAL WRF BOTH TRY TO BRING WEAKENING
SHOWERS INTO THE NE KILX CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS AREA DRY. WILL CARRY VCSH AT BOTH KCMI AND KDEC
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS ARRIVE LATER. ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DRY...WITH A VFR CEILING OF AROUND 5000FT. EVEN THOUGH
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER E/SE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT TO CREATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CARRY VCSH AFTER 17Z AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS...AND VCTS AT BOTH
KDEC AND KCMI. SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY AFTER SUNSET...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE N/NE AT 10KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN WILL INCREASE AND
GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON SUNDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1132 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 852 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE E/SE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO CENTER OF UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TWEAK POPS
AND SKY COVER. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN WILL DECREASE TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT THE E/SE ZONES WHERE SHOWERS MAY
REMAIN A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1132 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO
DWINDLE. AM WATCHING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AS THEY ROTATE SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND UPPER LOW. IF THEY CAN HOLD
TOGETHER...THEY COULD POTENTIALLY SPILL INTO EAST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT. NAM/LOCAL WRF BOTH TRY TO BRING WEAKENING
SHOWERS INTO THE NE KILX CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS AREA DRY. WILL CARRY VCSH AT BOTH KCMI AND KDEC
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS ARRIVE LATER. ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DRY...WITH A VFR CEILING OF AROUND 5000FT. EVEN THOUGH
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER E/SE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT TO CREATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CARRY VCSH AFTER 17Z AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS...AND VCTS AT BOTH
KDEC AND KCMI. SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY AFTER SUNSET...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE N/NE AT 10KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN WILL INCREASE AND
GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON SUNDAY.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
STRONG PUSH OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE BROAD SCALE TROF ALOFT AND
KICKING OFF MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND SCT TS ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISO TS OFF AND ON...
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL ABOUT THE LOW...AND ITS EVENTUAL DEPARTURE.
FORECAST RATHER STRAIGHT FORWARD...IF ONLY A QUESTION OF WHEN IN
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THE SCT PRECIP WILL FALL AND THE
EXTENT OF THE COVERAGE.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT CLOUDY AND WINDS STAY UP
AROUND 7-10 KTS...OTHERWISE WOULD NEED TO ADDRESS THE CHANCES FOR
FG DEVELOPMENT WITH THE ENHANCED HUMIDITY AT THE SFC FROM TODAYS
SHOWERS. THAT BEING SAID...THE RH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE FOR MORE SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TOMORROW FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS... PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST. CHANCES
FOR RAPID VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT REMAIN AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR
FUNNELS AGAIN TOMORROW MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN...BUT DIURNAL HEATING
ASSIST WILL BE IMPEDED BY SIGNIF CLOUD COVER REMAINING FROM TODAY
AND THIS EVENINGS PRECIP.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ONGOING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINING
FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
DEFINITIVE ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE AVAILABILITY OF
THE MOISTURE AS THE LOW PULLS DOWN AIR FROM THE NORTH INTO THE
FA...PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO THE WEST. FOR AT
LEAST SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL LIKELY
GET RECYCLED FROM THE PREV DAY SHOWERS....AT LEAST UNTIL ENOUGH
DRY AIR CAN MOVE IN AND DILUTE THE RH. TUESDAY THE LOW RETROGRADES
JUST A BIT AND CENTERS MORE OVER CENTRAL IL AND THINKING IF THIS
TREND IN MODELS CONTINUES...WILL BE BOOSTING TUES POPS IN THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. CONCERN LESS FOR MAJOR SYSTEMS AND MORE FOR
DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
UPPER LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE UPPER LOW
DOES BRING DOWN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS INTO THE MID
LEVELS...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FROM SAT THROUGH
TUESDAY AT LEAST. UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE OUT ON WED
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP NOT DISAPPEARING FROM FORECAST
FOR THE HOLIDAY ENTIRELY...BUT DIMINISHING GOING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1037 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS. THIS
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND WE WILL SEE THE THREAT SHOWERS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
DUAL POL HAS VERIFIED WITHIN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE QPF THAN
LEGACY PRODUCTS. BASED ON THIS RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW AREAS OF
0.5-1.0" RAINFALL IN THE LAST HOUR...BUT MOSTLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ARE FALLING WITH INSTANTANEOUS PRECIPITATION RATES AVERAGING
AROUND 0.10". STEADY...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
MOST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. HRRR HAS
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE 2 AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE USED THIS
AS A BASIS FOR POPS AND QPF.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS NOW LOCATED FROM NEAR CONCORD NH AND
OFFSHORE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT...MOVING EAST ALONG IT.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG A
COOLER AIR BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE WHITE AND WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS. TRAINING OF CELLS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASED STORM
TOTAL QPFS IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SO FAR NO FLOODING HAS BEEN
REPORTED. WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS
RECEIVING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR RECENT
TRENDS. THUNDER HAS BECOME ISOLATED AND HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH WILL MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND AWAY TO
THE EAST WITH HEAVY RAIN FINALLY TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. TUESDAY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
EARLY BUT REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...BEGINS TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD ON WED AS IT SEPARATES FROM JET N OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD
BACK TO THE WEST AND BEGIN TO PUSH THE DIFFUSE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
OVER NEW ENGLAND BACK TO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER THESE
TWO DAYS. WILL ALSO SEE WINDS VEER MORE TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS...BUT CONTINUED HUMID
CONDITIONS. A WEAK BOUNDARY WORKS IN FROM THE NW FRI OR FRI
NIGHT...AND THIS COULD BRING SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR LIKELY TONIGHT THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MFVR/VFR
TUESDAY AFTN.
LONG TERM...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON...AND FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THU THROUGH SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FEET BRIEFLY
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...THE PERSISTENT S FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED...AND
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH SW THU AND FRI....BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BLO
SCA LVLS. SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS COULD APPROACH 5 FT AT
TIMES...MAINLY IN SWELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY
THROUGH 8 AM TUESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>028.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ001>010-013-
014.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. FOG BURNED OFF AND SUNSHINE HELPING TO
FORM CUMULUS AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 70S. INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS
BECOME UNSTABLE. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING TODAY BUT NOT QUICKLY. WILL AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING AND FLOOD PROBLEMS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISOLATED. BETTER FORCING IN THE SE WHERE SPC HAS US IN A SEE TEXT.
5 PERCENT CHC OF WIND AND HAIL IN THE SRN HALF OF CWA. NOTHING SO
FAR BUT UL SHORT WAVE OVER SW PA WILL HELP TSTORMS FIRE BY 3 PM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NORTHEAST PA...WHILE OTHER MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOME CENTRAL NY TERMINALS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIMING AS NOTED IN TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
IN THE VALLEYS ESPECIALLY KELM OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON AFTN THROUGH FRI...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND
EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1145 AM UPDATE...
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE /YET ABOVE ACTION
STAGE/ FOR NORWICH AND SHERBURNE. ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO
UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING
ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR
THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING
ABOVE ACTION STAGES TO MINOR FLOOD POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL POINTS
ESPECIALLY UPPER SUSQUEHANNA BASIN WITHIN A 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW.
DECISION ON POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
138 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE ON
TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVING BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1055 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN STORY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...JUST A BIT SOUTH OF WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY OR
FROM BTV SOUTH AND EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF 1-2.5" OF RAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY (2.41" AT SUTTON VT AND AN INCH IN AND AROUND CHITTENDEN CO).
AMOUNTS LIKE THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF AGAIN PRODUCING ISOLATED
MINOR FLASH FLOODING. TOYED WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THINKING
IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT EXACTLY THE
SAME AREAS AS YESTERDAY JUST A BIT SOUTH.
SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM VCTY KART-KMPV-K1V4 AND SOUTH AND
EAST LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVIEST SWATHS OF PRECIPITATION. RAP MODEL SHOWS A
NICE AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTH.
TALL NARROW CAPE PROFILES PROGGED TO REACH 500-1500 J/KG N TO S AGAIN
SHOWING HIGHEST JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S.
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13K FT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCTION IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
PARALLEL SW FLOW ALOFT SO EXPECT SW-NE MOVING CELLS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
MORNING SOUNDING FROM ALY INDICATED PWAT OF 1.4" JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY AND MOVE N THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VALUES UP TO
NEAR 1.80".
LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED IN TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINLY MID 70S MTNS TO L80S WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WL DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET...AS LLVL STABILIZE AND BEST S/W ENERGY LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS THRU 03Z...THEN AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOPING PER SATURATED BL CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
50S COOLER MTN VALLEYS TO M60S CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
WL CONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON
TUES AS BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS
VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING
AS S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200%
ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN
ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL BE
LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH
FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION CHC POPS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LIKELY ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ON MONDAY. WL CARRY THESE LIKELY POPS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR SO ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH GFS/SREF SHOW FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND BEST S/W ENERGY ARRIVING AROUND 00Z...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN VT. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY
WITH LIS AROUND -2C AND CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG. WL MENTION SCHC
TO CHC OF THUNDER IN GRIDS. TUESDAY...INSTABILITY INCREASES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...AS
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IS BETTER...ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY IN PLACE.
TUESDAY COULD BE A VERY BUSY DAY WITH HYDRO PRODUCTS...WITH
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND HYDRO
SECTION BLW...BUT EVENTUALLY ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CRNT INDICATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MID-LATE SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR AND A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEAR HIGHEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHEN REMNANTS
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS REGION...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD (NEAR 2 INCHES)...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED THIS
MONTH AND THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE MAY
RETROGRADE WEST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
ZONAL...WHICH MAY HELP DRY THINGS OUT JUST A BIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE
HUMID. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 80S...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. AFTER 00Z...GENERALLY
LOOKING AT VFR/MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE RES OF THE PERIOD AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND THUS
LOOKING AT VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE THROUGH
12Z...BUT KSLK AND KMPV LOOKING AT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF REDUCTION
TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MAY SEE MVFR/IFR IN SOME FOG/BR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
IN THOSE PLACES THAT SEE RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VT. WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...SOME
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
INCREASE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE... SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV NEEDS 0.37" OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO BREAK THE
ALL-TIME JUNE PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 9.92.
THE 18.30" MAY-JUN TOTAL IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD BESTING THE
13.87" IN 2006.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS/SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1210 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. FOG BURNED OFF AND SUNSHINE HELPING TO
FORM CUMULUS AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 70S. INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS
BECOME UNSTABLE. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING TODAY BUT NOT QUICKLY. WILL AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING AND FLOOD PROBLEMS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISOLATED. BETTER FORCING IN THE SE WHERE SPC HAS US IN A SEE TEXT.
5 PERCENT CHC OF WIND AND HAIL IN THE SRN HALF OF CWA. NOTHING SO
FAR BUT UL SHORT WAVE OVER SW PA WILL HELP TSTORMS FIRE BY 3 PM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG AND A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FROM 17 TO 21Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT PREVAIL IN TAF. AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION...FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA AND EARLY
MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1145 AM UPDATE...
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE /YET ABOVE ACTION
STAGE/ FOR NORWICH AND SHERBURNE. ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO
UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING
ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR
THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING
ABOVE ACTION STAGES TO MINOR FLOOD POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL POINTS
ESPECIALLY UPPER SUSQUEHANNA BASIN WITHIN A 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW.
DECISION ON POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1159 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG AND A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FROM 17 TO 21Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT PREVAIL IN TAF. AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION...FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA AND EARLY
MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1145 AM UPDATE...
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE /YET ABOVE ACTION
STAGE/ FOR NORWICH AND SHERBURNE. ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO
UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING
ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR
THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING
ABOVE ACTION STAGES TO MINOR FLOOD POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL POINTS
ESPECIALLY UPPER SUSQUEHANNA BASIN WITHIN A 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW.
DECISION ON POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1104 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE ON
TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVING BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1055 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN STORY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...JUST A BIT SOUTH OF WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY OR
FROM BTV SOUTH AND EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF 1-2.5" OF RAIN SIMILIAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY (2.41" AT SUTTON VT AND AN INCH IN AND AROUND CHITTENDEN CO).
AMOUNTS LIKE THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF AGAIN PRODUCING ISOLATED
MINOR FLASH FLOODING. TOYED WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THINKING
IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT EXACTLY THE
SAME AREAS AS YESTERDAY JUST A BIT SOUTH.
SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM VCTY KART-KMPV-K1V4 AND SOUTH AND
EAST LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVIEST SWATHS OF PRECIPTATION. RAP MODEL SHOWS A
NICE AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTH.
TALL NARRROW CAPE PROFILES PROGGED TO REACH 500-1500 J/KG N TO S AGAIN
SHOWING HIGHEST JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S.
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13K FT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICENT RAIN
PRODUCTION IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
PARALLEL SW FLOW ALOFT SO EXPECT SW-NE MOVING CELLS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
MORNING SOUNDING FROM ALY INDICATED PWAT OF 1.4" JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY AND MOVE N THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VALUES UP TO
NEAR 1.80".
LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED IN TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINLY MID 70S MTNS TO L80S WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WL DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET...AS LLVL STABILIZE AND BEST S/W ENERGY LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS THRU 03Z...THEN AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOPING PER SATURATED BL CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
50S COOLER MTN VALLEYS TO M60S CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
WL CONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON
TUES AS BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS
VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING
AS S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200%
ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN
ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL BE
LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH
FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION CHC POPS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LIKELY ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ON MONDAY. WL CARRY THESE LIKELY POPS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR SO ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH GFS/SREF SHOW FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND BEST S/W ENERGY ARRIVING AROUND 00Z...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN VT. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY
WITH LIS AROUND -2C AND CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG. WL MENTION SCHC
TO CHC OF THUNDER IN GRIDS. TUESDAY...INSTABILITY INCREASES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...AS
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IS BETTER...ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY IN PLACE.
TUESDAY COULD BE A VERY BUSY DAY WITH HYDRO PRODUCTS...WITH
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND HYDRO
SECTION BLW...BUT EVENTUALLY ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CRNT INDICATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MID-LATE SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH FORECAST AREA INBETWEEN STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR AND A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEAR HIGHEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHEN REMNANTS
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS REGION...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD (NEAR 2 INCHES)...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED THIS
MONTH AND THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE MAY
RETROGRADE WEST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
ZONAL...WHICH MAY HELP DRY THINGS OUT JUST A BIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE
HUMID. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 80S...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING BTV/MPV/SLK
EARLY TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 13Z-14Z. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT MSS BETWEEN 18Z-24Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS. SHOWERS
END THIS EVENING...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE MVFR/IFR IN SOME FOG/BR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE PLACES THAT SEE RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VT. WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...SOME
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
INCREASE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE... SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV NEEDS 0.37" OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO BREAK THE
ALL-TIME JUNE PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 9.92.
THE 18.30" MAY-JUN TOTAL IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD BESTING THE
13.87" IN 2006.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS/SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...BTV
CLIMATE...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE ON
TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVING BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1055 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN STORY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...JUST A BIT SOUTH OF WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY OR
FROM BTV SOUTH AND EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF 1-2.5" OF RAIN SIMILIAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY (2.41" AT SUTTON VT AND AN INCH IN AND AROUND CHITTENDEN CO).
AMOUNTS LIKE THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF AGAIN PRODUCING ISOLATED
MINOR FLASH FLOODING. TOYED WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THINKING
IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT EXACTLY THE
SAME AREAS AS YESTERDAY JUST A BIT SOUTH.
SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM VCTY KART-KMPV-K1V4 AND SOUTH AND
EAST LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVIEST SWATHS OF PRECIPTATION. RAP MODEL SHOWS A
NICE AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTH.
TALL NARRROW CAPE PROFILES PROGGED TO REACH 500-1500 J/KG N TO S AGAIN
SHOWING HIGHEST JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S.
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13K FT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICENT RAIN
PRODUCTION IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
PARALLEL SW FLOW ALOFT SO EXPECT SW-NE MOVING CELLS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
MORNING SOUNDING FROM ALY INDICATED PWAT OF 1.4" JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY AND MOVE N THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VALUES UP TO
NEAR 1.80".
LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED IN TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINLY MID 70S MTNS TO L80S WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WL DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET...AS LLVL STABILIZE AND BEST S/W ENERGY LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS THRU 03Z...THEN AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOPING PER SATURATED BL CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
50S COOLER MTN VALLEYS TO M60S CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
WL CONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON
TUES AS BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS
VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING
AS S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200%
ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN
ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL BE
LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH
FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION CHC POPS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LIKELY ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ON MONDAY. WL CARRY THESE LIKELY POPS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR SO ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH GFS/SREF SHOW FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND BEST S/W ENERGY ARRIVING AROUND 00Z...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN VT. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY
WITH LIS AROUND -2C AND CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG. WL MENTION SCHC
TO CHC OF THUNDER IN GRIDS. TUESDAY...INSTABILITY INCREASES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...AS
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IS BETTER...ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY IN PLACE.
TUESDAY COULD BE A VERY BUSY DAY WITH HYDRO PRODUCTS...WITH
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND HYDRO
SECTION BLW...BUT EVENTUALLY ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CRNT INDICATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MID-LATE SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH FORECAST AREA INBETWEEN STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR AND A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEAR HIGHEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHEN REMNANTS
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS REGION...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD (NEAR 2 INCHES)...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED THIS
MONTH AND THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE MAY
RETROGRADE WEST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
ZONAL...WHICH MAY HELP DRY THINGS OUT JUST A BIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE
HUMID. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 80S...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING BTV/MPV/SLK
EARLY TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 13Z-14Z. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT MSS BETWEEN 18Z-24Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS. SHOWERS
END THIS EVENING...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE MVFR/IFR IN SOME FOG/BR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE PLACES THAT SEE RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VT. WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...SOME
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
INCREASE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE... SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS/SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
759 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TTODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE TEMP FORECAST.
1230 PM SAT UPDATE...
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE OR MODELS SINCE
YESTERDAY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES AND POPS ABOVE
NORMAL. EURO AND GFS SIMILAR WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE STAGNANT
PATTERN FOR THE CONUS. DEEP TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUT THE
AREA IN A MOIST AND WARM SW FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHC POPS
EVERY DAY. WITH DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 80S. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY TROF UNUSUAL FOR
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG AND A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FROM 17 TO 21Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT PREVAIL IN TAF. AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION...FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA AND EARLY
MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
755 AM UPDATE...
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS FROM THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER
IN UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY STILL IN MODERATE
FLOOD CATEGORY ON WAY TO MINOR...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER IN NORWICH OVERNIGHT FINALLY SLIPPED BELOW
FLOOD STAGE SO THE ASSOCIATED FLOOD WARNING THERE WILL NOT NEED TO
BE RENEWED /EXPIRING AT 8 AM/. THE SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN HAS
HOVERED ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE MONDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO NEW RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT
FORECAST POINT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
633 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TTODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE TEMP FORECAST.
1230 PM SAT UPDATE...
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE OR MODELS SINCE
YESTERDAY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES AND POPS ABOVE
NORMAL. EURO AND GFS SIMILAR WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE STAGNANT
PATTERN FOR THE CONUS. DEEP TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUT THE
AREA IN A MOIST AND WARM SW FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHC POPS
EVERY DAY. WITH DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 80S. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY TROF UNUSUAL FOR
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG AND A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FROM 17 TO 21Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT PREVAIL IN TAF. AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION...FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA AND EARLY
MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN ON THE 27TH-28TH
CONTINUE. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE EARLIER AND EXPECTED TO
FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA
NWS ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER IN NORWICH REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
BUT WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME THIS MORNING. THE
SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN WILL EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TONIGHT TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SO HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WARNING THERE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
347 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TTODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE TEMP FORECAST.
1230 PM SAT UPDATE...
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE OR MODELS SINCE
YESTERDAY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES AND POPS ABOVE
NORMAL. EURO AND GFS SIMILAR WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE STAGNANT
PATTERN FOR THE CONUS. DEEP TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUT THE
AREA IN A MOIST AND WARM SW FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHC POPS
EVERY DAY. WITH DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 80S. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY TROF UNUSUAL FOR
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 AM EDT UPDATE...
ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG TO SET
UP FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TONIGHT IS A
SIMILAR SETUP COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
FLUCTUATIONS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED FOR KITH...KELM... AND KRME
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FROM 17 TO 21Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT PREVAIL IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
SUN THROUGH THU...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA AND EARLY
MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN ON THE 27TH-28TH
CONTINUE. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE EARLIER AND EXPECTED TO
FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA
NWS ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER IN NORWICH REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
BUT WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME THIS MORNING. THE
SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN WILL EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TONIGHT TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SO HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WARNING THERE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
334 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTWARD
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TTODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 PM SAT UPDATE...
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE OR MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY.
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES AND POPS ABOVE NORMAL. EURO
AND GFS SIMILAR WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE
CONUS. DEEP TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUT THE AREA IN A MOIST
AND WARM SW FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHC POPS EVERY DAY. WITH
DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE LOWER
80S. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY TROF UNUSUAL FOR JULY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 AM EDT UPDATE...
ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG TO SET
UP FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TONIGHT IS A
SIMILAR SETUP COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
FLUCTUATIONS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED FOR KITH...KELM... AND KRME
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FROM 17 TO 21Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT PREVAIL IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
SUN THROUGH THU...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA AND EARLY
MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN ON THE 27TH-28TH
CONTINUE. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE EARLIER AND EXPECTED TO
FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA
NWS ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER IN NORWICH REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
BUT WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME THIS MORNING. THE
SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN WILL EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TONIGHT TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SO HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WARNING THERE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION... AND
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...
WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK... WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
OVERALL: OUR PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS OR BANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48-60
HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WE ARE CERTAIN
TO SEE POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES LOCALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE SLOW-MOVING AND/OR REPEATED STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT: WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN
CONSTANTLY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME... THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS (AND LIKELY LONGER) OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE... INCLUDING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE
SHARPENING UPPER JET FROM ERN TN/KY THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS... AND
REPEATED SHOTS OF DPVA AS PERTURBATIONS RIDE FROM THE NE GULF UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IN PARTICULAR... BOTH
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED-CONVECTION MODELS LATCH ONTO
THE MID LEVEL MCV OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD WHILE
DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SSW STEERING FLOW NORTHWARD TOWARD NC TONIGHT. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE (NOTED ON MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
PLOTS) NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS... MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY HOLDS
OVER CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE STAYING IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE BOTH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT... AND RISING TO 800-1600 ON MONDAY. (IN
THE NEAR TERM... MESOANALYSES SHOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-7.5 C/KM... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM... AND MLCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS.) DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VERY HIGH PW
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING IN DIRECTLY FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS... AS THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL
DEPTH OVER 4 KM) WILL ENCOURAGE WARM RAIN PROCESSES... AND THE
ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ARE AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS... EVEN IF IT ONLY RAINS
HEAVILY FOR 15-30 MINUTES IN ANY GIVEN SPOT... RAPID RAIN RATES ARE
LIKELY AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN COULD EASILY FALL... LEADING TO
RAPID RUNOFF AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT ON ANY STREETS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION... STORMS
MAY HOLD IN THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED TIME AS CELLS MAY TEND TO
PROPAGATE BACK TO THE SW... AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP RUNS
SHOWING LOWERING MBE VELOCITIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDS BECOME
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO
70-90% CHANCE EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AS BOTH STORM-SCALE AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITHIN A VOLATILE AND VERY WET COLUMN APPEAR INEVITABLE...
AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COUPLE OF RELATIVE LULLS WITH ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... IT IS DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN WHEN SUCH A LULL MIGHT OCCUR. AND EVEN DURING
TIMES OF LOWER STORM COVERAGE... INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD STILL DROP
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
CLOUDS/TEMPS: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND... AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN
WITH EITHER STRATUS AT NIGHT OR CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. THIS... IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEADY BREEZE FROM THE SSE OR SOUTH... SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH WARM NIGHTS (LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S) AND WARM HUMID DAYS (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S). -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...
CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A DEEP...MOISTURE SOUTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHIFTS ONLY SLOWLY
WESTWARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO
EXPAND. PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES...IF NOT INCREASE ABOVE 2
INCHES ON TUESDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALSO SHIFTS WESTWARD.
MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A WAVE PASSING MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCE PRECIP...BUT GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE
OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THIS PATTERN...ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF QPF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEEP LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CARRIED OUT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AND MAY POSSIBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY IN SOME AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY /SHEAR
DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT. WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...TAILING OFF TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS NC
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....SHIFTING THE PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THUS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...
PERIODIC ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
NC... WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... AND
LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT. EARLIER SUB-VFR CIGS HAVE LARGELY LIFTED BUT
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z AT ALL CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES. OTHERWISE... SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE ALREADY INCREASING IN NUMBER OVER CENTRAL NC... AND IF
THESE PASS NEAR ANY TAF SITE THEY WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS. GSO AND FAY HAVE THE MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT OF SEEING A
STORM IN THEIR AREAS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE OF STORMS ANYWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL TRACK NEAR TAF SITES IS TOUGH TO
RESOLVE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE... CIGS AFTER 20Z WILL BE MOSTLY
VFR... BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT... MUCH
LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS... AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE AT RDU/GSO/INT. THESE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AFTER 14Z MONDAY... HOWEVER THE RISK
OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MONDAY... SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING.
BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND WILL NOT NECESSARILY
BE RESTRICTED TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS... WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WELL. WE SHOULD
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
DRIER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
STARTS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-
089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION... AND
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...
WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK... WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
OVERALL: OUR PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS OR BANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48-60
HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WE ARE CERTAIN
TO SEE POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES LOCALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE SLOW-MOVING AND/OR REPEATED STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT: WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN
CONSTANTLY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME... THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS (AND LIKELY LONGER) OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE... INCLUDING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE
SHARPENING UPPER JET FROM ERN TN/KY THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS... AND
REPEATED SHOTS OF DPVA AS PERTURBATIONS RIDE FROM THE NE GULF UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IN PARTICULAR... BOTH
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED-CONVECTION MODELS LATCH ONTO
THE MID LEVEL MCV OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD WHILE
DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SSW STEERING FLOW NORTHWARD TOWARD NC TONIGHT. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE (NOTED ON MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
PLOTS) NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS... MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY HOLDS
OVER CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE STAYING IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE BOTH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT... AND RISING TO 800-1600 ON MONDAY. (IN
THE NEAR TERM... MESOANALYSES SHOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-7.5 C/KM... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM... AND MLCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS.) DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VERY HIGH PW
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING IN DIRECTLY FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS... AS THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL
DEPTH OVER 4 KM) WILL ENCOURAGE WARM RAIN PROCESSES... AND THE
ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ARE AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS... EVEN IF IT ONLY RAINS
HEAVILY FOR 15-30 MINUTES IN ANY GIVEN SPOT... RAPID RAIN RATES ARE
LIKELY AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN COULD EASILY FALL... LEADING TO
RAPID RUNOFF AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT ON ANY STREETS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION... STORMS
MAY HOLD IN THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED TIME AS CELLS MAY TEND TO
PROPAGATE BACK TO THE SW... AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP RUNS
SHOWING LOWERING MBE VELOCITIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDS BECOME
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO
70-90% CHANCE EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AS BOTH STORM-SCALE AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITHIN A VOLATILE AND VERY WET COLUMN APPEAR INEVITABLE...
AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COUPLE OF RELATIVE LULLS WITH ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... IT IS DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN WHEN SUCH A LULL MIGHT OCCUR. AND EVEN DURING
TIMES OF LOWER STORM COVERAGE... INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD STILL DROP
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
CLOUDS/TEMPS: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND... AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN
WITH EITHER STRATUS AT NIGHT OR CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. THIS... IN
CONJUCTION WITH THE STEADY BREEZE FROM THE SSE OR SOUTH... SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH WARM NIGHTS (LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S) AND WARM HUMID DAYS (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S). -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL IMPEDE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY STORM
SYSTEMS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD. THUS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO A POSITION
OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS LOW AND THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SLY FLOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS FLOW WILL ORIGINATE OVER THE MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHERN GULF WHERE PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 2.25-2.4 INCH
RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS WILL SERVE AS A
LAUNCHING PAD FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY OR WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. THUS...EXPECT ABNORMALLY HIGH POPS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS DEEP SLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN CONVECTION TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. WHILE THE NEED FOR A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEEDS TO
BE CONSIDERED...DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIME AND LOCATION DUE TO THE
LACK OF A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLE. BEST ROUTE AT THIS
TIME IS TO HIGHLIGHT FLOODING THREAT IN HWO.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP TREND. WHILE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MUGGY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S WILL BE COMMON (VERSUS NORMAL UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING IN THE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS MAIN MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS WESTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO ATLANTIC HIGH BUILDING WESTWARD. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH HEATING WILL CAUSE ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AS
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR AND BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE MID-UPPER
80S....RISING INTO THE THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...
PERIODIC ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
NC... WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... AND
LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT. EARLIER SUB-VFR CIGS HAVE LARGELY LIFTED BUT
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z AT ALL CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES. OTHERWISE... SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE ALREADY INCREASING IN NUMBER OVER CENTRAL NC... AND IF
THESE PASS NEAR ANY TAF SITE THEY WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS. GSO AND FAY HAVE THE MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT OF SEEING A
STORM IN THEIR AREAS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE OF STORMS ANYWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL TRACK NEAR TAF SITES IS TOUGH TO
RESOLVE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE... CIGS AFTER 20Z WILL BE MOSTLY
VFR... BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT... MUCH
LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS... AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE AT RDU/GSO/INT. THESE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AFTER 14Z MONDAY... HOWEVER THE RISK
OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MONDAY... SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING.
BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND WILL NOT NECESSARILY
BE RESTRICTED TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS... WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WELL. WE SHOULD
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
DRIER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
STARTS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-
089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
102 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
ONLY CHANGES TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WERE TO BUMP UP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S AROUND KJMS. ALSO RAISED SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST WITH A MORE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THAN EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. EARLIER CONVECTION BETWEEN MINOT AND BISMARCK HAS
DISSIPATED. CURRENTLY CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH
DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP HERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM 12 UTC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES FROM
4-700J/KG. UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AND WARM SO CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CURRENT POPS IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THIS UPDATE EXPANDED ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS A BIT NORTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR ONGOING SHOWERS ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MINOT AND
BISMARCK. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND A RESULTANT NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA HAVE BEEN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND OR EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. THERE WILL BE SHIFT TO MOVE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z BEFORE ENDING THEM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AND HENCE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MORE SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80F WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE LONG TERM IS ON LOCATION OF THE JET
STREAM. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES
THAT THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY BRIEFLY
PHASE WITH THE ALASKAN UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS WEEK. SUBSEQUENT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO WESTERN
CANADA IS LESS EXTREME. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES UNTIL FRIDAY.
THEN...A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE REASON THE JET LOCATION IS SO IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN
CONSIDERABLY REDUCED THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS OF FORECAST UPDATES...SINCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS
DIFFICULT TO RELEASE DURING THE SUMMER WITHOUT AT LEAST SOME
MIDDLE LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT.
THE FORECAST NOW DELAYS PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DIRECTS THE JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS VERY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER BASED ON VERY LARGE 00 UTC MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SPREAD...BUT IT APPEARS A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18 UTC MONDAY. SCATTERED CU FIELD 4-7KFT
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
EASTERN CWA WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FAR WEST. AFTER LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
ON MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE
DRY FORECAST AS HI-RES MODELS PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO QPF OVER THE
CWFA. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 6 AND 7
C/KM...LIMITING ANY SUPPORT OF LIFTING IN THE MID LEVELS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE UPDATE THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK. THE ONLY QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WILL SEE ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HAVE OCCURRED THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST AND WATCH CU
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND ADD POPS IF WARRANTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE CWFA PULLING CLOUDS WITH
IT. MUCH OF THIS UPDATE THEN DEALS WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THE
MORNING & AFTERNOON. IR AND WV SHOW PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. EXPECT THIS TO
BE PREDOMINANTLY THIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CHALLENGE REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND LOW
END RISK OF TSRA. 06Z MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF AMOUNT OF MU-CAPE
AND SHOWALTERS FROM 00Z RUNS. YET SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLD MOIST CONVECTION AS 700 TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER THAN
SATURDAY. IF LOW LEVEL FORCING BECOMES ORGANIZED LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO ADD POPS.
PATCHES OF BR CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA AND THIS SHOULD
LIFT BY 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER WAVE AT 08Z WAS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CWFA...WITH THE CURL CENTERED NEAR BWP. LINGERING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 35KTS SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE
CWFA BY MID MORNING LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY FORENOON. LOCAL
VERIFICATION SUGGESTS THE FGFBLEND IS BEST BET IN NEAR TERM WHICH
MAKES AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SATURDAYS. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FA SO HAVE PUT SOME PATCHY FG
IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES AFTERNOON CU AND POSSIBLE ISOLD -TSRA.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AND AM LEANING TO KEEP IT
THAT WAY THOUGH THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ARGUE FOR NO RAIN. HOWEVER...LAPS AND
SHORT TERM MODELS DO LAY A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTH/SOUTH TROUGH THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. IT IS ALSO COOLER AT 700 MB TODAY THAN SATURDAY
WHEN THERE WAS ISOLD TSRA. WEAK BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED IN NARROW
BAND OF MU-CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND SHOWALTERS BELOW ZERO IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. NAM12 AND GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE YET ECMWF AND GEM
ALSO SHOW THIS. HRRR DOES DEVELOP ECHOES AFTER 17Z SO MAY THROW
ISOLD TSRA IN AT LAST MINUTE.
IN ANY EVENT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILD IN. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FEEL LOWS WILL
STAY CLOSER TO 60 MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CONIFERS DUE TO RECENT
RAINS AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST TOP-SOILS. HAVE LEANED ON
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSMOS
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT HIGH DRIFTS OVER AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSALL FOR MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS.
TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WARMING TREND. DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
GENERATES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ARGUE FOR ANOTHER 2F
TO 4F INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
AT MIDWEEK... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NEWD FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SINKS SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
FOR WED AND THU. BY FRI AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CANADA
CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY ZONAL. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WED/THU WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN THE FCST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FRI NITE THROUGH SAT NITE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 20C. WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER WAVE APPROACHING BY THE WEEKEND...A COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR AS A
COOLER AIRMASS IN USHERED IN BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. SCATTERED AREAS OF
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
RUNOFF CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RED RIVER AT
HALSTAD IS NEAR CREST AT AROUND 27 FT...WITH FALLING STAGES
CONTINUING TO THE SOUTH AT FARGO. GRADUAL RISES WITHIN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AT EAST GRAND FORKS AND AT OSLO FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FLOOD WARNING ON THE SHEYENNE RIVER AT WEST
FARGO HAS BEEN CANCELED. MOST AREA TRIBUTARIES ARE SEEING FALLING
LEVELS WITH RUNOFF PROGRESSING INTO THE MAINSTEM RED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...BRAMER
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1002 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. EARLIER CONVECTION BETWEEN MINOT AND BISMARCK HAS
DISSIPATED. CURRENTLY CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH
DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP HERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM 12 UTC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES FROM
4-700J/KG. UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AND WARM SO CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CURRENT POPS IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THIS UPDATE EXPANDED ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS A BIT NORTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR ONGOING SHOWERS ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MINOT AND
BISMARCK. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND A RESULTANT NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA HAVE BEEN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND OR EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. THERE WILL BE SHIFT TO MOVE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z BEFORE ENDING THEM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AND HENCE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MORE SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80F WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE LONG TERM IS ON LOCATION OF THE JET
STREAM. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES
THAT THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY BRIEFLY
PHASE WITH THE ALASKAN UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS WEEK. SUBSEQUENT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO WESTERN
CANADA IS LESS EXTREME. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES UNTIL FRIDAY.
THEN...A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE REASON THE JET LOCATION IS SO IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN
CONSIDERABLY REDUCED THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS OF FORECAST UPDATES...SINCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS
DIFFICULT TO RELEASE DURING THE SUMMER WITHOUT AT LEAST SOME
MIDDLE LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT.
THE FORECAST NOW DELAYS PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DIRECTS THE JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS VERY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER BASED ON VERY LARGE 00 UTC MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SPREAD...BUT IT APPEARS A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 01/06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE UPDATE THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK. THE ONLY QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WILL SEE ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HAVE OCCURRED THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST AND WATCH CU
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND ADD POPS IF WARRANTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE CWFA PULLING CLOUDS WITH
IT. MUCH OF THIS UPDATE THEN DEALS WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THE
MORNING & AFTERNOON. IR AND WV SHOW PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. EXPECT THIS TO
BE PREDOMINANTLY THIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CHALLENGE REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND LOW
END RISK OF TSRA. 06Z MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF AMOUNT OF MU-CAPE
AND SHOWALTERS FROM 00Z RUNS. YET SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLD MOIST CONVECTION AS 700 TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER THAN
SATURDAY. IF LOW LEVEL FORCING BECOMES ORGANIZED LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO ADD POPS.
PATCHES OF BR CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA AND THIS SHOULD
LIFT BY 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER WAVE AT 08Z WAS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CWFA...WITH THE CURL CENTERED NEAR BWP. LINGERING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 35KTS SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE
CWFA BY MID MORNING LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY FORENOON. LOCAL
VERIFICATION SUGGESTS THE FGFBLEND IS BEST BET IN NEAR TERM WHICH
MAKES AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SATURDAYS. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FA SO HAVE PUT SOME PATCHY FG
IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES AFTERNOON CU AND POSSIBLE ISOLD -TSRA.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AND AM LEANING TO KEEP IT
THAT WAY THOUGH THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ARGUE FOR NO RAIN. HOWEVER...LAPS AND
SHORT TERM MODELS DO LAY A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTH/SOUTH TROUGH THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. IT IS ALSO COOLER AT 700 MB TODAY THAN SATURDAY
WHEN THERE WAS ISOLD TSRA. WEAK BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED IN NARROW
BAND OF MU-CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND SHOWALTERS BELOW ZERO IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. NAM12 AND GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE YET ECMWF AND GEM
ALSO SHOW THIS. HRRR DOES DEVELOP ECHOES AFTER 17Z SO MAY THROW
ISOLD TSRA IN AT LAST MINUTE.
IN ANY EVENT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILD IN. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FEEL LOWS WILL
STAY CLOSER TO 60 MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CONIFERS DUE TO RECENT
RAINS AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST TOP-SOILS. HAVE LEANED ON
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSMOS
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT HIGH DRIFTS OVER AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSALL FOR MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS.
TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WARMING TREND. DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
GENERATES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ARGUE FOR ANOTHER 2F
TO 4F INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
AT MIDWEEK... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NEWD FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SINKS SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
FOR WED AND THU. BY FRI AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CANADA
CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY ZONAL. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WED/THU WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN THE FCST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FRI NITE THROUGH SAT NITE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 20C. WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER WAVE APPROACHING BY THE WEEKEND...A COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR AS A
COOLER AIRMASS IN USHERED IN BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG/MVFR CIGS OVER FAR EASTERN CWFA...WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 14Z...VFR CONDS EXIST. PERSISTENT IFR/MVFR
CONDS AT BJI ALSO FORECAST TO IMPROVE AROUND 14Z. VFR THEN REST
OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
RIVERS ARE BEHAVING ABOUT AS FORECAST. MINOR RISES ARE PREDICTED
AT WAHPETON...WITH HICKSON AND FARGO CONTINUING THE DOWNWARD
TREND. HALSTAD RISING JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST CURVE WITH
EAST GRAND FORKS...OSLO AND DRAYTON RIGHT ON THE CURVE. ON THE
TRIBS SABIN FALLING TOWARDS FS...DILWORTH LOOKS TO HAVE CRESTED
JUST BELOW MODERATE AND IS FALLING. HENDRUM IS NEARLY STEADY JUST
BELOW FS AND FORECAST TO CREST JUST BLO FS. THE WARNING WAS CANCELED
LAST EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...EWENS
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
646 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE CWFA PULLING CLOUDS WITH
IT. MUCH OF THIS UPDATE THEN DEALS WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THE
MORNING & AFTERNOON. IR AND WV SHOW PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. EXPECT THIS TO
BE PREDOMINANTLY THIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CHALLENGE REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND LOW
END RISK OF TSRA. 06Z MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF AMOUNT OF MU-CAPE
AND SHOWALTERS FROM 00Z RUNS. YET SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLD MOIST CONVECTION AS 700 TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER THAN
SATURDAY. IF LOW LEVEL FORCING BECOMES ORGANIZED LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO ADD POPS.
PATCHES OF BR CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA AND THIS SHOULD
LIFT BY 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER WAVE AT 08Z WAS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CWFA...WITH THE CURL CENTERED NEAR BWP. LINGERING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 35KTS SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE
CWFA BY MID MORNING LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY FORENOON. LOCAL
VERIFICATION SUGGESTS THE FGFBLEND IS BEST BET IN NEAR TERM WHICH
MAKES AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SATURDAYS. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FA SO HAVE PUT SOME PATCHY FG
IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES AFTERNOON CU AND POSSIBLE ISOLD -TSRA.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AND AM LEANING TO KEEP IT
THAT WAY THOUGH THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ARGUE FOR NO RAIN. HOWEVER...LAPS AND
SHORT TERM MODELS DO LAY A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTH/SOUTH TROUGH THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. IT IS ALSO COOLER AT 700 MB TODAY THAN SATURDAY
WHEN THERE WAS ISOLD TSRA. WEAK BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED IN NARROW
BAND OF MU-CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND SHOWALTERS BELOW ZERO IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. NAM12 AND GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE YET ECMWF AND GEM
ALSO SHOW THIS. HRRR DOES DEVELOP ECHOES AFTER 17Z SO MAY THROW
ISOLD TSRA IN AT LAST MINUTE.
IN ANY EVENT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILD IN. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FEEL LOWS WILL
STAY CLOSER TO 60 MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CONIFERS DUE TO RECENT
RAINS AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST TOP-SOILS. HAVE LEANED ON
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSMOS
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT HIGH DRIFTS OVER AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSALL FOR MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS.
TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WARMING TREND. DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
GENERATES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ARGUE FOR ANOTHER 2F
TO 4F INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
AT MIDWEEK... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NEWD FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SINKS SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
FOR WED AND THU. BY FRI AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CANADA
CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY ZONAL. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WED/THU WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN THE FCST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FRI NITE THROUGH SAT NITE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 20C. WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER WAVE APPROACHING BY THE WEEKEND...A COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR AS A
COOLER AIRMASS IN USHERED IN BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG/MVFR CIGS OVER FAR EASTERN CWFA...WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 14Z...VFR CONDS EXIST. PERSISTENT IFR/MVFR
CONDS AT BJI ALSO FORECAST TO IMPROVE AROUND 14Z. VFR THEN REST
OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
RIVERS ARE BEHAVING ABOUT AS FORECAST. MINOR RISES ARE PREDICTED
AT WAHPETON...WITH HICKSON AND FARGO CONTINUING THE DOWNWARD
TREND. HALSTAD RISING JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST CURVE WITH
EAST GRAND FORKS...OSLO AND DRAYTON RIGHT ON THE CURVE. ON THE
TRIBS SABIN FALLING TOWARDS FS...DILWORTH LOOKS TO HAVE CRESTED
JUST BELOW MODERATE AND IS FALLING. HENDRUM IS NEARLY STEADY JUST
BELOW FS AND FORECAST TO CREST JUST BLO FS. THE WARNING WAS CANCELED
LAST EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...EWENS
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER WAVE AT 08Z WAS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CWFA...WITH THE CURL CENTERED NEAR BWP. LINGERING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 35KTS SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE
CWFA BY MID MORNING LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY FORENOON. LOCAL
VERIFICATION SUGGESTS THE FGFBLEND IS BEST BET IN NEAR TERM WHICH
MAKES AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SATURDAYS. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FA SO HAVE PUT SOME PATCHY FG
IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES AFTERNOON CU AND POSSIBLE ISOLD -TSRA.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AND AM LEANING TO KEEP IT
THAT WAY THOUGH THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ARGUE FOR NO RAIN. HOWEVER...LAPS AND
SHORT TERM MODELS DO LAY A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTH/SOUTH TROUGH THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. IT IS ALSO COOLER AT 700 MB TODAY THAN SATURDAY
WHEN THERE WAS ISOLD TSRA. WEAK BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED IN NARROW
BAND OF MU-CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND SHOWALTERS BELOW ZERO IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. NAM12 AND GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE YET ECMWF AND GEM
ALSO SHOW THIS. HRRR DOES DEVELOP ECHOES AFTER 17Z SO MAY THROW
ISOLD TSRA IN AT LAST MINUTE.
IN ANY EVENT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILD IN. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FEEL LOWS WILL
STAY CLOSER TO 60 MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CONIFERS DUE TO RECENT
RAINS AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST TOP-SOILS. HAVE LEANED ON
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSMOS
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT HIGH DRIFTS OVER AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSALL FOR MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS.
TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WARMING TREND. DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
GENERATES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ARGUE FOR ANOTHER 2F
TO 4F INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
AT MIDWEEK... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NEWD FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SINKS SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
FOR WED AND THU. BY FRI AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CANADA
CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY ZONAL. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WED/THU WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN THE FCST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FRI NITE THROUGH SAT NITE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 20C. WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER WAVE APPROACHING BY THE WEEKEND...A COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR AS A
COOLER AIRMASS IN USHERED IN BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG/MVFR CIGS OVER FAR EASTERN
CWFA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND MVFR
CONDS AT BJI TO IMPROVE AFTER 12Z AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OFF. VFR
THEN REST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
RIVERS ARE BEHAVING ABOUT AS FORECAST. MINOR RISES ARE PREDICTED
AT WAHPETON...WITH HICKSON AND FARGO CONTINUING THE DOWNWARD
TREND. HALSTAD RISING JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST CURVE WITH
EAST GRAND FORKS...OSLO AND DRAYTON RIGHT ON THE CURVE. ON THE
TRIBS SABIN FALLING TOWARDS FS...DILWORTH LOOKS TO HAVE CRESTED
JUST BELOW MODERATE AND IS FALLING. HENDRUM IS NEARLY STEADY JUST
BELOW FS AND FORECAST TO CREST JUST BLO FS. THE WARNING WAS CANCELED
LAST EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...EWENS
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
732 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE. REMOVED FOG FROM NE
OH FOR THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY BACK INTO
THE AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP BLOSSOMING TOWARD MIDDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER NW OH. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP THAT AREA.
LIGHTNING NEAR KDAY THIS MORNING SHOULD ROTATE AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND STILL NOT EXPECT THUNDER TILL MIDDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
ORIGINAL...FOR A CHANGE THE RADAR IS NEARLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. STARTING TO
SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY. THE PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE HIT AND MISS SO WILL
GO WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDER
IS LIKELY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. ALTHOUGH ALL
AREAS SHOULD EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. GFS MOS DID REALLY WELL YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS AND
SEEMS REASONABLE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH NEW TO WRITE ABOUT TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE S AND W OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE AN INVERTED TROUGH
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA MOST OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
AT LEAST PARTIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DROP
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER LATE EVENING. WILL NEED LIKELY WORDING
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
TUESDAY WHEN THE AREA WILL BE RIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN JUICED WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA FINALLY SEES SW
FLOW RETURN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY WEEKS END. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL BUILD BACK WEST AND EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BUILD RESULTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WEST INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
RIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH QUICK SHOTS OF UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A CONTINUOUS THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE HINTING AT
CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BY THAT TIME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...WITH ATLANTIC/BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...WARM TROPICAL AIR
WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREAS BUT
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIFTING NORTH
INTO A BETTER AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND MAY INTENSIFY A BIT. I
DECIDED TO ADD A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS AT FINDLAY THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS MANSFIELD TOWARD CLEVELAND. MENTIONED A PERIOD OF
SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST
ABOUT ANY WHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...WILL KEEP IT DRY EAST OF TOLEDO AND FINDLAY
LINE AT THIS TIME. WESTERN PORTIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CONVERGENCE AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST NORTHEAST.
LOOKING AT POSSIBLE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY LAKE CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA BY TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST HALF OF THE LAKE.
THEN...EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND WAVES SUBSIDE TO A FOOT OR
LESS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE. REMOVED FOG FROM NE
OH FOR THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY BACK INTO
THE AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP BLOSSOMING TOWARD MIDDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER NW OH. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP THAT AREA.
LIGHTNING NEAR KDAY THIS MORNING SHOULD ROTATE AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND STILL NOT EXPECT THUNDER TILL MIDDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
ORIGINAL...FOR A CHANGE THE RADAR IS NEARLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. STARTING TO
SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY. THE PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE HIT AND MISS SO WILL
GO WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDER
IS LIKELY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. ALTHOUGH ALL
AREAS SHOULD EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. GFS MOS DID REALLY WELL YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS AND
SEEMS REASONABLE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH NEW TO WRITE ABOUT TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE S AND W OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE AN INVERTED TROUGH
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA MOST OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
AT LEAST PARTIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DROP
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER LATE EVENING. WILL NEED LIKELY WORDING
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
TUESDAY WHEN THE AREA WILL BE RIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN JUICED WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA FINALLY SEES SW
FLOW RETURN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY WEEKS END. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL BUILD BACK WEST AND EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BUILD RESULTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WEST INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
RIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH QUICK SHOTS OF UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A CONTINUOUS THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE HINTING AT
CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BY THAT TIME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...WITH ATLANTIC/BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...WARM TROPICAL AIR
WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS BREAKING APART IN THE EAST AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. SO WILL MENTION
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES THROUGH SUNRISE AND IMPROVE
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE I WOULD THINK WOULD BE IN THE WEST AT TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE ACTIVITY
WOULD DEVELOP IN THE EAST AND THE TIMING SO WILL LEAVE IT DRY IN
THOSE AREAS FOR NOW.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST NORTHEAST.
LOOKING AT POSSIBLE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY LAKE CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA BY TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST HALF OF THE LAKE.
THEN...EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND WAVES SUBSIDE TO A FOOT OR
LESS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
628 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO ORGANIZED FRONTS TO PASS. DEEPER
MOISTURE ALONG EAST COAST CREEPS BACK WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG NC COAST BY INDEPENDENCE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG SHORT WAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTH INTO NRN
MISSOURI AT 07Z...ON WEST SIDE OF 500 MB TROF CENTERED OVER INDIANA.
THIS WILL TRY TO REDEVELOP THE 500 TROF AXIS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH
LATER TODAY...IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...500 MB HEIGHTS
RISE HERE AFTER 15Z. 700 MB STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE TOWARD SOUTH
AND WEAKENS.
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE NORTH ALONG EAST
SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF. ONE SUCH SHORT WAVE WAS LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO AT 07Z. IT HELPED LINGER SHOWERS IN HTS TRI
STATE FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. PATCHES OF FOG FORMED FURTHER E
IN WV.
BY 18Z TO 21Z RAP MODEL SHOWING CHANNELED VORTICITY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY SOUTH INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. LIKE SATURDAY...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE ONLY LIMITED CAPE WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AOB 30
THSD. HAVING MOST POPS TOP OUT AROUND 40 PCT TDY...WITH A BIT
HIGHER IN EASTERN OHIO AND ANOTHER SECONDARY MAX OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AT LEAST WE REMAIN IN THE RELATIVE MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
TODAY BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE OHIO VALLEY TROF.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...OUR ATTENTION BEGINS TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE
EAST. WITH 700 MB MORE SOUTHERLY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING...DEEPER
MOISTURE ALSO CREEPS WEST. WITH NO REAL WEATHER BOUNDARIES ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE...TERRAIN AND WEAK SE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
THE MAIN FORCING. SO HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES BY DAWN MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON A SYNOPTIC LEVEL...MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSING OFF
OVER LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND EVEN RETROGRADING SOME BACK INTO
MISSOURI THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS THE CWA IN GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW...PUMPING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. TO START THE PERIOD...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD...BUT AS THE LOW DRIFTS
WEST...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO DRIFT WESTWARD AND MAY GET
INTO THE WV MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY LOOKING AT HIGH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...WITH LOWER CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS. EXPECT NEAR TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH LOWS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO SLOW RETROGRADE W AS UPR TROF TO W FILLS IN.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PERHAPS W OF THE AREA LATE
IN THE EXTENDED. UNTIL THEN...UNSETTLED WX WILL BE THE RULE WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL NATURE OF POPS WITH HIGH CHC EACH AFTN...WANING WITH
AFTER SUNSET. NOT EXPECTING TOTAL WASHOUTS EACH DAY AS A RESULT BUT
INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MEAN DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. PWATS
LOOK TO CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY WEEKS END. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
WATER CONCERNS...BUT MID LVL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOVING. CONCERN
WOULD BE FOR PERHAPS SOME S TO N TRAINING LINES. STATUS QUO FOR
TEMPS EXPECTED...WITH SEASONAL HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG MOST WIDESPREAD HTS-CRW ON DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AT DAWN SUNDAY. HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AROUND 12Z.
STRING OF 500 MB VORT MAXIMUMS SWING NORTH AROUND WEAKENING 500 MB
TROF OVER INDIANA THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM IN TIMING THE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...MOST
COMMON OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...COMPARED TO FURTHER EAST. CONFIDENCE
ALSO LOWERS WHEN TRYING TO PREDICT THE FOG OVERNIGHT AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF EVENING SHOWERS AND LINGERING CLOUDS.
THEN TRY TO FORM NEW CONVECTION BY MIDDAY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
THE TRI STATE AROUND HTS AND LIFT MAINLY NORTH. LEFT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 03Z MONDAY.
CEILINGS MAINLY 5 TO 10 THSD FT BKN AT NIGHT...WITH CU FORMING AT 2
TO 4 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FOR 14Z THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VSBY BRIEFLY NEAR 3 MILES IN CONVECTION.
AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR 06Z TO 11Z SUNDAY IN LOCAL FOG...BUT VSBY MAY
BE VARIABLE DUE TO THAT DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO EASTERN OHIO.
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN BY 06Z MONDAY WITH SOME IFR BY 08Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY. AMOUNT AND AREAS OF FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY L M L H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L M L H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH LOWER CEILINGS ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
412 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...INCREASINGLY HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MY EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES AS GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO LINE FOR A DEEPENING PLUME OF
VERY TROPICAL AIR TO CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. LARGE SCALE
FORCING SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A HEAVY RAIN SET UP WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS LOW
SETTLES SOUTH...THE HEIGHTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FCST TO
RISE WITH THE RESURGENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...TIGHTENING THE
UPPER GRADIENT AND INTENSIFYING THE LARGE UPPER JET ENTRANCE
REGION FROM KY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SREF AND GEFS BOTH BRING A PWAT ANOMALY OF 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. BOTH SHOW AT LEAST A 30-50%
LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS...WITH THE SREF EVEN SHOWING AN AREA OF 4 INCHES OR MORE
POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS...HAVE OPTED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AREAS...HOLDING OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
THIS COULD EVEN NEED TO BE EXPANDED WEST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY FUNNELS THE BEST MOISTURE AND
FORCING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE EVENING...THE RADAR IS BEGINNING TO
GET ACTIVE WITH WHAT WE HAVE SEEN NOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAP ANAL SHOWS CAPES EXCEEDING
2000J...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN MEAGER SO AS YET STORMS
ARE NOT ATTAINING ANY GREAT HEIGHT OR ORGANIZATION. BUT AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TO HEAT UP...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR LARGE HAL
REPORT.
AS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AGAIN WITH EASTERN AREAS SEEING THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT WILL BE A WARM MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY LOOKS WET ONCE AGAIN WITH THE STAGNANT UPPER TROF AND LOW
LEVEL FRONT HANGING OVER THE AREA HELPING SUPPORT A CONTINUATION
OF THE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS.
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...BUT ACTUALLY ONLY NEAR
OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF MID AFTERNOON HAVING FINALLY BURNED OFF THE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/HAZE. ALL IN TIME FOR THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP. SITES WILL STAY VFR
UNLESS A STORM WANDERS NEARBY CAUSING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT THE
DEEP MOIST FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY RIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATER TONIGHT WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME FOG...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THIS WILL
LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND LIFT ONLY SLOWLY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING MVFR FOR MUCH OF NOT ALL
OF THE DAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE
A RETURN TO A MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN LATER IN
THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR...BUT STILL WITH AREAS OF LOWER
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ042-051>053-057>059-065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
234 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...INCREASINGLY HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MY EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES AS GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO LINE FOR A DEEPENING PLUME OF
VERY TROPICAL AIR TO CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. LARGE SCALE
FORCING SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A HEAVY RAIN SET UP WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS LOW
SETTLES SOUTH...THE HEIGHTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FCST TO
RISE WITH THE RESURGENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...TIGHTENING THE
UPPER GRADIENT AND INTENSIFYING THE LARGE UPPER JET ENTRANCE
REGION FROM KY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SREF AND GEFS BOTH BRING A PWAT ANOMALY OF 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. BOTH SHOW AT LEAST A 30-50%
LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS...WITH THE SREF EVEN SHOWING AN AREA OF 4 INCHES OR MORE
POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS...HAVE OPTED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AREAS...HOLDING OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
THIS COULD EVEN NEED TO BE EXPANDED WEST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY FUNNELS THE BEST MOISTURE AND
FORCING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE EVENING...THE RADAR IS BEGINNING TO
GET ACTIVE WITH WHAT WE HAVE SEEN NOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAP ANAL SHOWS CAPES EXCEEDING
2000J...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN MEAGER SO AS YET STORMS
ARE NOT ATTAINING ANY GREAT HEIGHT OR ORGANIZATION. BUT AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TO HEAT UP...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR LARGE HAL
REPORT.
AS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AGAIN WITH EASTERN AREAS SEEING THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT WILL BE A WARM MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY LOOKS WET ONCE AGAIN WITH THE STAGNANT UPPER TROF AND LOW
LEVEL FRONT HANGING OVER THE AREA HELPING SUPPORT A CONTINUATION
OF THE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS.
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...BUT ACTUALLY ONLY NEAR
OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WORK WESTWARD
BY LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CUT DOWN THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
MAIN CHANGE TO PACKAGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME...AND TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF MID AFTERNOON HAVING FINALLY BURNED OFF THE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/HAZE. ALL IN TIME FOR THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP. SITES WILL STAY VFR
UNLESS A STORM WANDERS NEARBY CAUSING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT THE
DEEP MOIST FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY RIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATER TONIGHT WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME FOG...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THIS WILL
LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND LIFT ONLY SLOWLY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING MVFR FOR MUCH OF NOT ALL
OF THE DAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE
A RETURN TO A MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN LATER IN
THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR...BUT STILL WITH AREAS OF LOWER
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ042-051>053-057>059-065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN CENTRAL SD THIS
MORNING DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THE WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT RESPONSIBLE
FOR THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH MORE SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDER TO CONTINUE/DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER WAVE HEADS SOUTH. ADDED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE
CENTRAL SD FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH IF MORE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AND INCREASE POPS. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE
LATEST NAM ALSO SHOW SOME SPOTTY QPF ACROSS CENTRAL SD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK GOOD.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WEAK VORT MAX IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS A FEW
ISO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH ONE HAVING CROSSED THE BORDER INTO
SD/MCPHERSON COUNTY WITH SOME 30-40 DBZ RETURNS. HAVE UPDATED THE
SHORT TERM POP GRIDS TO REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS LIKELY
FROM THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT NOW.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A JET STREAK CROSSING THE REGION AS WELL.
MODELS SHOW THIS JET MAX MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A STRUNG OUT AREA OF VORTICITY WITH VERY
WEAK OMEGA THAT EXTENDS FURTHER NORTH BACK INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
BUT WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL PROMOTE VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON IS A BIT IN QUESTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. ASIDE FROM WHATEVER VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
STILL A BIT OUT OF THE ORDINARY...BUT WILL BE SEEING UPPER LEVEL
STEERING FLOW COMING JUST ABOUT STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR
PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF NORTH AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST
WILL BE CRASHING DOWN WHILE MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. THE TRANSITION TO WESTERLIES BY THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
MORE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BACK TO THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND SEVERAL NIGHTS OF LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ALLBLEND POPS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF NOW
BASICALLY KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EVEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
DAYTIME HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH
IN THE KPIR AND KMBG TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SERR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1050 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN CENTRAL SD THIS
MORNING DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THE WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT RESPONSIBLE
FOR THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH MORE SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDER TO CONTINUE/DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER WAVE HEADS SOUTH. ADDED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE
CENTRAL SD FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH IF MORE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AND INCREASE POPS. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE
LATEST NAM ALSO SHOW SOME SPOTTY QPF ACROSS CENTRAL SD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK GOOD.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WEAK VORT MAX IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS A FEW
ISO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH ONE HAVING CROSSED THE BORDER INTO
SD/MCPHERSON COUNTY WITH SOME 30-40 DBZ RETURNS. HAVE UPDATED THE
SHORT TERM POP GRIDS TO REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS LIKELY
FROM THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT NOW.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A JET STREAK CROSSING THE REGION AS WELL.
MODELS SHOW THIS JET MAX MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A STRUNG OUT AREA OF VORTICITY WITH VERY
WEAK OMEGA THAT EXTENDS FURTHER NORTH BACK INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
BUT WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL PROMOTE VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON IS A BIT IN QUESTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. ASIDE FROM WHATEVER VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
STILL A BIT OUT OF THE ORDINARY...BUT WILL BE SEEING UPPER LEVEL
STEERING FLOW COMING JUST ABOUT STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR
PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF NORTH AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST
WILL BE CRASHING DOWN WHILE MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. THE TRANSITION TO WESTERLIES BY THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
MORE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BACK TO THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND SEVERAL NIGHTS OF LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ALLBLEND POPS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF NOW
BASICALLY KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. WILL AMEND TAFS TO INCLUDE PRECIP
MENTION AS NECESSARY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
147 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER SHORT TERM UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPS/POPS
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION ARE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS MIDDLE
SECTION OF THE CWA...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 80S. SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE NOTED OUT WEST...AND WE COULD SEE A QUICK
WARM UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON...THE OTHER WARM AREA IS FAR
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CONVECTION...AND WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNING.
PRETTY INCREDIBLE TO CONSIDER YESTERDAYS RECORD JUNE MAX
TEMP...AND THEN REALIZE THAT TODAYS MAX WONT BE TOO MUCH WARMER
THAN A RECORD LOW MAX VALUE (81). OUR MAX T TODAY WILL BE AT LEAST
84 THOUGH...SO NO RECORD BREAKING.
AS FAR AS POPS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION REALLY STARTING TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE DROPPED POPS TO 30 OR BELOW FOR
MOST EVERYONE...EXCEPT A 40 LEFT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
SHOWERS HAVENT DIMINISHED TOO MUCH YET. WITH COOL TEMPS...CIN
VALUES JUST TOO HIGH THIS AFTERNOON TO SUSTAIN MUCH. THINKING THAT
WE WONT SEE MUCH REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT...THOUGH WONT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS LEADING TO ISSUES WITH WINDS FOR MOST ALL TAF SITES.
WILL START THE PERIOD WITH A N WIND FOR ALI AND CRP...ALTHOUGH
WILL EXPECT WINDS TO EVENTUALLY COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VCT SHOULD BE MAINLY DONE WITH PRECIP
TODAY...THOUGH A SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE. OTHER SITES WILL HAVE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH WILL ONLY
BE A WIND SHIFT WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION...NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING POST-MCS. FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...WHILE MORE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING CENTRAL TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THINGS WELL
THIS MORNING...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD WEAKEN
THE STUFF CURRENTLY IN EWX FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES DOWN...BUT
THAT JUST DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THE TREND AT THIS TIME. THUS HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADJUST AFTERNOON POPS DOWN THE ROAD
IF THIS STUFF DOES INDEED HOLD TOGETHER. HRRR MODEL ALSO INDICATES
YET ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL PLAY THE WAITING GAME FOR A LITTLE WHILE AND SEE
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THAT.
THE OTHER BIG CHALLENGE IS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRST ROUND OF STORMS REALLY KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN THROUGH THE
COASTAL BEND...CRP STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 70S AT 10AM...OTHER
SITES REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THESE COMPLEXES...BUT NOT SURE IT`S GOING TO BE
ENOUGH TO GET OUR TEMPS TOO FAR INTO THE 90S FOR MANY OF US. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST WITH SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS CONVECTION. WILL
PROBABLY NEED ANOTHER TEMP UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING ONCE WE SEE
HOW COASTAL BEND TEMPS ARE RECOVERING FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.
AVIATION...FIRST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHRAS AND TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. ALI/CRP TAFS WILL
BE IMPACTED THROUGH 15Z AND LRD THROUGH 14Z. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS
AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ATTENTION TURNS TO SECOND DISTURBANCE
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION...POSSIBLY IMPACTING SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EXACT
TIMING HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS IN THE LRD/ALI/CRP TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND
FOLLOWED WITH A BLEND OF THE HI RESOLUTION HRRR/NMM THROUGH
18Z...WITH SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FORECAST. THIS AFTERNOON...HI
RESOLUTION AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SECOND UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. MOISTURE POOL OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE POOLED OVER THE AREA...AND
ANY FORCING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OR BOUNDARIES WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS TODAY COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY TODAY
WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK THAT WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...AND IN A FEW SPOTS (LRD) UNDERCUT MOS.
DRIER AIR WORKS ITO THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIPPING INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP A LOW POP ALONG AND WEST OF U.S.
281 MONDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS RESIDES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...POTENT UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS PROGD TO SHIFT W MONDAY NIGHT/TUE.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S ACROSS THE FAR W CWA MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT THE MODELS PROG
TO TRACK SWD ACROSS MEX. BY TUE THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE PROGD
TO BE FARTHER AWAY FROM S TX WITH THE TROF AXIS DRAPED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE TX COAST. THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE
NE CWA AND COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT/WED THEREFORE KEPT A SILENT 10
POP IN PLACE. MOISTURE IS PROGD TO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THU WITH
FRI BEING A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS GULF MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS S TX.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EASTERLY WAVE SHIFT NWD FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TOWARD S TX
WITH PWATS PROGD TO BE BETWEEN 2-2.5 INCHES. KEPT THE 20-30 POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LOW REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS PROGS THIS UPPER LOW TO BE A WAVE MVG IN
FROM THE E WHILE THE ECMWF PROGS THE UPPER LOW TO BE THE SAME LOW
CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT BEING CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM. EITHER
WAY...BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY KEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LOWS. WINDS ARE A BIT TRICKY THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A WEAK BDRY MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
WINDS VARYING FROM SE TO NE. WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE S
AND SE BY MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 100 73 95 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 70 99 68 94 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 99 75 98 73 / 20 20 20 10 10
ALICE 73 100 71 97 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 78 95 74 91 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 98 69 96 69 / 20 20 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 75 101 72 97 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 93 76 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS LEADING TO ISSUES WITH WINDS FOR MOST ALL TAF SITES.
WILL START THE PERIOD WITH A N WIND FOR ALI AND CRP...ALTHOUGH
WILL EXPECT WINDS TO EVENTUALLY COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VCT SHOULD BE MAINLY DONE WITH PRECIP
TODAY...THOUGH A SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE. OTHER SITES WILL HAVE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH WILL ONLY
BE A WIND SHIFT WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION...NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING POST-MCS. FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...WHILE MORE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING CENTRAL TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THINGS WELL
THIS MORNING...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD WEAKEN
THE STUFF CURRENTLY IN EWX FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES DOWN...BUT
THAT JUST DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THE TREND AT THIS TIME. THUS HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADJUST AFTERNOON POPS DOWN THE ROAD
IF THIS STUFF DOES INDEED HOLD TOGETHER. HRRR MODEL ALSO INDICATES
YET ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL PLAY THE WAITING GAME FOR A LITTLE WHILE AND SEE
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THAT.
THE OTHER BIG CHALLENGE IS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRST ROUND OF STORMS REALLY KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN THROUGH THE
COASTAL BEND...CRP STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 70S AT 10AM...OTHER
SITES REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THESE COMPLEXES...BUT NOT SURE IT`S GOING TO BE
ENOUGH TO GET OUR TEMPS TOO FAR INTO THE 90S FOR MANY OF US. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST WITH SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS CONVECTION. WILL
PROBABLY NEED ANOTHER TEMP UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING ONCE WE SEE
HOW COASTAL BEND TEMPS ARE RECOVERING FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.
AVIATION...FIRST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHRAS AND TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. ALI/CRP TAFS WILL
BE IMPACTED THROUGH 15Z AND LRD THROUGH 14Z. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS
AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ATTENTION TURNS TO SECOND DISTURBANCE
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION...POSSIBLY IMPACTING SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EXACT
TIMING HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS IN THE LRD/ALI/CRP TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND
FOLLOWED WITH A BLEND OF THE HI RESOLUTION HRRR/NMM THROUGH
18Z...WITH SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FORECAST. THIS AFTERNOON...HI
RESOLUTION AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SECOND UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. MOISTURE POOL OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE POOLED OVER THE AREA...AND
ANY FORCING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OR BOUNDARIES WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS TODAY COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY TODAY
WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK THAT WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...AND IN A FEW SPOTS (LRD) UNDERCUT MOS.
DRIER AIR WORKS ITO THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIPPING INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP A LOW POP ALONG AND WEST OF U.S.
281 MONDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS RESIDES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...POTENT UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS PROGD TO SHIFT W MONDAY NIGHT/TUE.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S ACROSS THE FAR W CWA MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT THE MODELS PROG
TO TRACK SWD ACROSS MEX. BY TUE THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE PROGD
TO BE FARTHER AWAY FROM S TX WITH THE TROF AXIS DRAPED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE TX COAST. THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE
NE CWA AND COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT/WED THEREFORE KEPT A SILENT 10
POP IN PLACE. MOISTURE IS PROGD TO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THU WITH
FRI BEING A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS GULF MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS S TX.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EASTERLY WAVE SHIFT NWD FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TOWARD S TX
WITH PWATS PROGD TO BE BETWEEN 2-2.5 INCHES. KEPT THE 20-30 POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LOW REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS PROGS THIS UPPER LOW TO BE A WAVE MVG IN
FROM THE E WHILE THE ECMWF PROGS THE UPPER LOW TO BE THE SAME LOW
CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT BEING CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM. EITHER
WAY...BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY KEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LOWS. WINDS ARE A BIT TRICKY THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A WEAK BDRY MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
WINDS VARYING FROM SE TO NE. WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE S
AND SE BY MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 100 73 95 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 70 99 68 94 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 99 75 98 73 / 20 20 20 10 10
ALICE 73 100 71 97 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 78 95 74 91 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 98 69 96 69 / 20 20 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 75 101 72 97 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 93 76 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1241 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 5000FT AT KHBV
TO NEAR 10000FT AT KAPY. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
MORNING MCS LINGERS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
MON MORNING AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION
DIMINISHING ACROSS CWA LATE THIS MORNING WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH AS WELL AS WEST OF THE CWA. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC13 MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V STRUCTURE
ACROSS THE MID PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS THE NORTH. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THE POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAVE ALREADY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER BASED ON THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RACING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THAT IS MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS RIGHT NOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AS
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...AND THEREFORE THE TAFS HAVE
BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT THIS. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...AND INCLUDE IT AS NECESSARY AS SOON AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF IT INCREASES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND ARE RAPIDLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO THE BRO CWFA. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE
TO THE ZONE FORECAST...COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. NO OTHER FORECAST CHANGES MADE BEYOND
TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS REGARDING
INITIAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AMENDED TAFS MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 22 KNOTS. IF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD TOGETHER...INCREASED CLOUDINESS
WITH PRECIPITATION MAY VERY WELL HAVE TO BE INSERTED INTO THE TAFS
SOMETIME DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT TAFS IS HIGH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND LOW
BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MUCH MORE INTERESTING WEATHER
SCENARIO EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH EMBEDDED
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND A 500 MB CLOSED
LOW CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
MEXICO AND TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A RAPIDLY MOISTENING
ATMOSPHERE AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE BRO CWFA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...APPEARS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
500 MB TROUGH WILL INITIATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE
CRP CWFA TODAY THAT MAY PUSH INTO THE BRO CWFA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS A GENERAL RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SO...AFTER TALKING WITH SPC AND WFO CRP
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAVE DECIDED TO PLACE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE ODDS THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THAT
WORDING OUT OF THE MAIN FORECAST...BUT INDICATE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND WILL HAVE THE
INCOMING SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION TODAY AND UPGRADE TO SEVERE
WORDING IF NEEDED. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR MONDAY...
BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE GENEROUS...AS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH MAY PUMP SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE BRO CWFA...STIFLING PRECIP
TOMORROW POSSIBLY. AFTER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER DAY OF HADES LEVEL HIGH TEMPS
ARE LIKELY...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED ON MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY AND NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS.
THANKS TO STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI PERSONNEL
FOR PRECIPITATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL COORDINATION FOR TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WEST WILL BE COUNTERBALANCED BY A LOW OVER THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
ROUGHLY FROM THE NORTH GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONAL
RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY...LATE IN THE PERIOD...
BUILD EAST AND SQUEEZE THE TROUGH OUT OF EXISTENCE. IN THE MEAN
TIME HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE RISE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. INITIALLY...A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CWA MONDAY WITH MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND TO THE
SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THE LOWER VALLEY...INCLUDING ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE...COULD SEE SOME RAIN AS A RESULT. BY MID WEEK THE
LOW CENTER WILL SHIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY NW...AND THE COMBINATION OF
TROUGHING SOUTH OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WEST GULF...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION PUMPING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS OVER THE WEST GULF. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT
AS CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE GULF DURING THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM BUT TEMPERED WITH
PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE NOTED MORE ALONG THE
COAST AND THE LOWER VALLEY...WITH LESS SIGNIFICANCE INLAND. THE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL FILL LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT
BETTER DEFINED WEAKNESS WILL SET UP IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND
NORTH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 19 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KTS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 4
FT WITH A PERIOD OF 5 S AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...
FEATURING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS...ARE EXPECTED THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL START OUT
RELATIVELY LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT
BRIEFLY TO NORTH WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUES NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR OVERPOWERS THE SITUATION
AND PUSHES OUT INTO THE GULF. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOW
SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE
AROUND MID WEEK...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
WEST GULF WITH A WEAKNESS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COMPOUNDING
THINGS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL INITIALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA
BUT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE
MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS...POSSIBLY EXPANDING ASHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SYNOPTICALLY HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT
WITH LOW SEAS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
61/53/59/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1125 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION
DIMINISHING ACROSS CWA LATE THIS MORNING WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH AS WELL AS WEST OF THE CWA. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC13 MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V STRUCTURE
ACROSS THE MID PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS THE NORTH. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THE POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAVE ALREADY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER BASED ON THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RACING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THAT IS MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS RIGHT NOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AS
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...AND THEREFORE THE TAFS HAVE
BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT THIS. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...AND INCLUDE IT AS NECESSARY AS SOON AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF IT INCREASES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND ARE RAPIDLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO THE BRO CWFA. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE
TO THE ZONE FORECAST...COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. NO OTHER FORECAST CHANGES MADE BEYOND
TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS REGARDING
INITIAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AMENDED TAFS MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 22 KNOTS. IF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD TOGETHER...INCREASED CLOUDINESS
WITH PRECIPITATION MAY VERY WELL HAVE TO BE INSERTED INTO THE TAFS
SOMETIME DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT TAFS IS HIGH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND LOW
BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MUCH MORE INTERESTING WEATHER
SCENARIO EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH EMBEDDED
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND A 500 MB CLOSED
LOW CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
MEXICO AND TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A RAPIDLY MOISTENING
ATMOSPHERE AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE BRO CWFA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...APPEARS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
500 MB TROUGH WILL INITIATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE
CRP CWFA TODAY THAT MAY PUSH INTO THE BRO CWFA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS A GENERAL RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SO...AFTER TALKING WITH SPC AND WFO CRP
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAVE DECIDED TO PLACE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE ODDS THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THAT
WORDING OUT OF THE MAIN FORECAST...BUT INDICATE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND WILL HAVE THE
INCOMING SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION TODAY AND UPGRADE TO SEVERE
WORDING IF NEEDED. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR MONDAY...
BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE GENEROUS...AS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH MAY PUMP SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE BRO CWFA...STIFLING PRECIP
TOMORROW POSSIBLY. AFTER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER DAY OF HADES LEVEL HIGH TEMPS
ARE LIKELY...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED ON MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY AND NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS.
THANKS TO STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI PERSONNEL
FOR PRECIPITATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL COORDINATION FOR TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WEST WILL BE COUNTERBALANCED BY A LOW OVER THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
ROUGHLY FROM THE NORTH GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONAL
RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY...LATE IN THE PERIOD...
BUILD EAST AND SQUEEZE THE TROUGH OUT OF EXISTENCE. IN THE MEAN
TIME HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE RISE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. INITIALLY...A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CWA MONDAY WITH MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND TO THE
SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THE LOWER VALLEY...INCLUDING ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE...COULD SEE SOME RAIN AS A RESULT. BY MID WEEK THE
LOW CENTER WILL SHIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY NW...AND THE COMBINATION OF
TROUGHING SOUTH OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WEST GULF...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION PUMPING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS OVER THE WEST GULF. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT
AS CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE GULF DURING THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM BUT TEMPERED WITH
PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE NOTED MORE ALONG THE
COAST AND THE LOWER VALLEY...WITH LESS SIGNIFICANCE INLAND. THE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL FILL LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT
BETTER DEFINED WEAKNESS WILL SET UP IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND
NORTH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 19 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KTS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 4
FT WITH A PERIOD OF 5 S AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...
FEATURING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS...ARE EXPECTED THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL START OUT
RELATIVELY LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT
BRIEFLY TO NORTH WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUES NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR OVERPOWERS THE SITUATION
AND PUSHES OUT INTO THE GULF. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOW
SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE
AROUND MID WEEK...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
WEST GULF WITH A WEAKNESS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COMPOUNDING
THINGS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL INITIALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA
BUT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE
MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS...POSSIBLY EXPANDING ASHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SYNOPTICALLY HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT
WITH LOW SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 78 94 77 / 50 20 20 10
BROWNSVILLE 98 78 97 77 / 50 20 20 20
HARLINGEN 99 76 98 77 / 50 20 20 10
MCALLEN 99 78 100 77 / 50 30 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 101 79 102 78 / 60 30 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 79 90 78 / 50 20 20 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
61/53/59/58/CAMPBELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1003 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING POST-MCS. FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...WHILE MORE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING CENTRAL TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THINGS WELL
THIS MORNING...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD WEAKEN
THE STUFF CURRENTLY IN EWX FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES DOWN...BUT
THAT JUST DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THE TREND AT THIS TIME. THUS HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADJUST AFTERNOON POPS DOWN THE ROAD
IF THIS STUFF DOES INDEED HOLD TOGETHER. HRRR MODEL ALSO INDICATES
YET ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL PLAY THE WAITING GAME FOR A LITTLE WHILE AND SEE
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THAT.
THE OTHER BIG CHALLENGE IS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRST ROUND OF STORMS REALLY KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN THROUGH THE
COASTAL BEND...CRP STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 70S AT 10AM...OTHER
SITES REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THESE COMPLEXES...BUT NOT SURE IT`S GOING TO BE
ENOUGH TO GET OUR TEMPS TOO FAR INTO THE 90S FOR MANY OF US. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST WITH SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS CONVECTION. WILL
PROBABLY NEED ANOTHER TEMP UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING ONCE WE SEE
HOW COASTAL BEND TEMPS ARE RECOVERING FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.
AVIATION...FIRST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHRAS AND TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. ALI/CRP TAFS WILL
BE IMPACTED THROUGH 15Z AND LRD THROUGH 14Z. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS
AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ATTENTION TURNS TO SECOND DISTURBANCE
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION...POSSIBLY IMPACTING SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EXACT
TIMING HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS IN THE LRD/ALI/CRP TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND
FOLLOWED WITH A BLEND OF THE HI RESOLUTION HRRR/NMM THROUGH
18Z...WITH SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FORECAST. THIS AFTERNOON...HI
RESOLUTION AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SECOND UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. MOISTURE POOL OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE POOLED OVER THE AREA...AND
ANY FORCING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OR BOUNDARIES WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS TODAY COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY TODAY
WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK THAT WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...AND IN A FEW SPOTS (LRD) UNDERCUT MOS.
DRIER AIR WORKS ITO THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIPPING INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP A LOW POP ALONG AND WEST OF U.S.
281 MONDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS RESIDES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...POTENT UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS PROGD TO SHIFT W MONDAY NIGHT/TUE.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S ACROSS THE FAR W CWA MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT THE MODELS PROG
TO TRACK SWD ACROSS MEX. BY TUE THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE PROGD
TO BE FARTHER AWAY FROM S TX WITH THE TROF AXIS DRAPED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE TX COAST. THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE
NE CWA AND COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT/WED THEREFORE KEPT A SILENT 10
POP IN PLACE. MOISTURE IS PROGD TO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THU WITH
FRI BEING A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS GULF MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS S TX.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EASTERLY WAVE SHIFT NWD FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TOWARD S TX
WITH PWATS PROGD TO BE BETWEEN 2-2.5 INCHES. KEPT THE 20-30 POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LOW REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS PROGS THIS UPPER LOW TO BE A WAVE MVG IN
FROM THE E WHILE THE ECMWF PROGS THE UPPER LOW TO BE THE SAME LOW
CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT BEING CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM. EITHER
WAY...BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY KEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LOWS. WINDS ARE A BIT TRICKY THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A WEAK BDRY MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
WINDS VARYING FROM SE TO NE. WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE S
AND SE BY MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 75 100 73 95 / 50 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 98 70 99 68 94 / 30 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 96 77 99 75 98 / 50 20 20 20 10
ALICE 94 73 100 71 97 / 50 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 86 78 95 74 91 / 40 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 95 74 98 69 96 / 40 20 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 93 75 101 72 97 / 50 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 86 76 93 76 91 / 50 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
833 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 833 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS CONTINUES TO RE-INITIATE CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS
HAS RUN SOUTHWEST FROM WAUSAU WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
JACKSON COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN FEEDING ON ABOUT 1000
J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...OUTFLOW HAS BEEN
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30-40MPH AT TIMES. AS SURFACE BASED CIN
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT THAT THESE
STORMS WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE SURFACE BASED FORCING AND FALL APART.
MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME FOG TO THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THIS
RAIN...PARTICULARLY THE CRANBERRY BOGS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG I-94/90.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST COVER THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. MOSINEE...KCWA...DID
REPORT -RA IN THE PAST HALF HOUR...SO THE PRECIPITATION IS
REACHING THE GROUND. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THE RUNS FROM
THE UP OF MICHIGAN DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS AS
WELL WITH SOME SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN RUNNING INTO SOME MORE NORTHERLY WINDS IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE 01.20 HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT...THOUGH
OVERDONE...COMPARISON TO RADAR AND SHOWS THESE SHOWERS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
WANES ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
CONDITIONS...BUT GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW BRIEF GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30KTS OR SO WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ANOTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN BETWEEN...A CUT OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE 01.12Z MODEL SUITE WHICH CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS FORCES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THESE WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY WEAK
FORCING OVER THE REGION WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING THESE
WAVES WITH LESS THAN 4 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE LACKING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE RIGHT OVER
THE AREA BRINGING A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS MAY BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH THE
COLD CORE ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 6
AND 7 C/KM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN BY LATE AFTERNOON TO AID IN
THE INSTABILITY. CAPES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS TO BE A TALL SKINNY CAPE. ENOUGH THOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO REAL
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND STARTS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH SOME LOW END CAPE TO POP SOME
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND WILL SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THAT...ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN
THE PROCESS OF MERGING INTO ONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS TEND TO TAKE FRONTS TOO FAR SOUTH IN
THESE PATTERNS SO HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO TOMORROW AS A
STALLED WEATHER PATTERN LEAVES A SIMILAR AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING THEM TO REACH LSE THIS EVENING.
IF ONE SHOWER WOULD REACH IT...THE TIMING WOULD BE AROUND 1Z WITH
CONDITIONS STAYING VFR THROUGH IT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
OVERNIGHT THOUGH VALLEY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME HIGH
BASED CUMULUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP LATER IN THE MORNING AS WINDS
ALSO SLIGHTLY PICK UP BUT STAY LESS THAN 10KT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
634 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST COVER THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. MOSINEE...KCWA...DID
REPORT -RA IN THE PAST HALF HOUR...SO THE PRECIPITATION IS
REACHING THE GROUND. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THE RUNS FROM
THE UP OF MICHIGAN DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS AS
WELL WITH SOME SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN RUNNING INTO SOME MORE NORTHERLY WINDS IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE 01.20 HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT...THOUGH
OVERDONE...COMPARISON TO RADAR AND SHOWS THESE SHOWERS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
WANES ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
CONDITIONS...BUT GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW BRIEF GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30KTS OR SO WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ANOTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN BETWEEN...A CUT OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE 01.12Z MODEL SUITE WHICH CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS FORCES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THESE WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY WEAK
FORCING OVER THE REGION WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING THESE
WAVES WITH LESS THAN 4 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE LACKING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE RIGHT OVER
THE AREA BRINGING A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS MAY BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH THE
COLD CORE ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 6
AND 7 C/KM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN BY LATE AFTERNOON TO AID IN
THE INSTABILITY. CAPES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS TO BE A TALL SKINNY CAPE. ENOUGH THOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO REAL
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND STARTS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH SOME LOW END CAPE TO POP SOME
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND WILL SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THAT...ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN
THE PROCESS OF MERGING INTO ONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS TEND TO TAKE FRONTS TOO FAR SOUTH IN
THESE PATTERNS SO HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO TOMORROW AS A
STALLED WEATHER PATTERN LEAVES A SIMILAR AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING THEM TO REACH LSE THIS EVENING.
IF ONE SHOWER WOULD REACH IT...THE TIMING WOULD BE AROUND 1Z WITH
CONDITIONS STAYING VFR THROUGH IT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
OVERNIGHT THOUGH VALLEY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME HIGH
BASED CUMULUS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP LATER IN THE MORNING AS WINDS
ALSO SLIGHTLY PICK UP BUT STAY LESS THAN 10KT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
917 PM MST MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA AND MOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THESE STORMS PRODUCED MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE...BUT ONE STRONG CELL
RESULTED IN DAMAGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF TOWN NEAR IRONWOOD HILL AND
GREASEWOOD WHERE POWER POLES WENT DOWN.
ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GREENLEE
COUNTY AND MOVED INTO THE GILA RIVER VALLEY. SHERIFFS OFFICIALS
REPORTED A STORAGE CONTAINER WAS LIFTED AND STRUCK A GAS MAIN IN
GRAHAM COUNTY NEAR SAFFORD.
MORE RECENTLY A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY AND MOVED SOUTHWEST HUGGING THE EAST SIDE
OF THE RINCON MOUNTAINS AND MOVED OVER INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN THE
COCHISE COUNTY LINE AND VAIL. RADAR INDICATED WINDS OF 58 KNOTS AT
AROUND 1800 FEET JUST NORTH OF I-10...SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR THAT AREA.
CURRENTLY THIS CELL HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WITH JUST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TUCSON METRO
AND ANOTHER BATCH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RINCONS AGAIN...BUT IN NW
COCHISE COUNTY.
THE LATEST HRRR AND U OF A WRF NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW AND A COUPLE OF IMPULSES
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO CONTINUE TO SPARK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
INHERITED POP GRIDS/FORECASTS HAS ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...SO THIS LOOKS GOOD.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT TEMPS AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z...
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA/-SHRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MOVEMENT WILL
GENERALLY BE NE-SW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THRU EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. ANOTHER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED EAST MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
STORMS WILL BE HEAVIEST IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD SPREAD TO
SOME VALLEY AREAS. STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION THRU WED. UPPER HIGH IS THEN
PROGGED TO MOVE SWD INTO ARIZONA BY SAT. AS WITH PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS...THERE WERE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE 01/12Z GFS/ECMWF
PARTICULARLY REGARDING QPF/S. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 01/12Z ECMWF WAS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH DEPICTING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
QPF/S DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS
CONTINUITY...HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD PARTICULARLY WED EVENING AND
AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
ASSUMING AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WED EVENING... THUR MAY
HAVE SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUN-MON. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL JUSTIFY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM TUCSON EWD WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY.
DAYTIME TEMPS TUE AND CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BF/MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 1230 AM THE WMFNT CONTINUES TO FOCUSING SHRA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY HAV DECREASED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THESE SHRA WILL LIFT SLOWLY N AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT....BCMG SCT
-SHRA. ATTM HRRR CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE SITUATION WELL.
IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS TUESDAY. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED...MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO RENEWED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS.
TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT REMAIN AND
MAINTAIN THREAT OF WAA SURGES (OVERRUNNING) OF SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN
ASSOC WITH WMFNT/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE
BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD.
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL
AT.
WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL
PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O
INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS
WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY
AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY
THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP.
NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS.
LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE
SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE EFP MAJOR W ATLC ANTICYCLONE AT SFC AND 500HPA (KNOWN
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH) RETROGRADES TO THE ATLC SEABOARD..AS THE
500HPA TROF RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS.
THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FCA FRI...THE GFS
SHIFTS IT OUT OF THE FCA FOR THE WEEKEND AND BACK MONDAY. THE GEM
DISPLACES IT FURTHER N AND W TO W PERIPHERY...AND ECMWF HAS IT
DRIFTING IN AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE VARIABLE SUNSHINE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH CHC MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS. THE THREAT WILL
BE LEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S TO ARND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND. DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL YIELD CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. VSBYS MAY REMAIN IN
THE MVFR LEVELS...WITH CIGS IN THE LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS AT KALB AND KGFL.
THE CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TO HIGH MVFR/VFR LEVELS UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY PM. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT MAY YIELD SOME SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBABILITY
IS LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS /AROUND 30 PERCENT/...SO IT HAS NOT BEEN
ADDED TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SHOWERS OR STARTED IN TH 18Z-21Z RANGE WHERE CONFIDENCE
WAS THE GREATEST.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 00Z/WED IN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT...VFR/MVFR. SLIGHT CHC/CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1234 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 1230 AM THE WMFNT CONTINUES TO FOCUSING SHRA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY HAV DECREASED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THESE SHRA WILL LIFT SLOWLY N AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT....BCMG SCT
-SHRA. ATTM HRRR CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE SITUATION WELL.
IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS TUESDAY. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED...MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO RENEWED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS.
TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT REMAIN AND
MAINTAIN THREAT OF WAA SURGES (OVERRUNNING) OF SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN
ASSOC WITH WMFNT/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE
BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD.
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL
AT.
WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL
PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O
INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS
WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY
AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY
THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP.
NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS.
LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE
SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE EFP MAJOR W ATLC ANTICYCLONE AT SFC AND 500HPA (KNOWN
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH) RETROGRADES TO THE ATLC SEABOARD..AS THE
500HPA TROF RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS.
THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FCA FRI...THE GFS
SHIFTS IT OUT OF THE FCA FOR THE WEEKEND AND BACK MONDAY. THE GEM
DISPLACES IT FURTHER N AND W TO W PERIPHERY...AND ECMWF HAS IT
DRIFTING IN AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE VARIABLE SUNSHINE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH CHC MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS. THE THREAT WILL
BE LEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S TO ARND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS EVENING GENERALLY MVR CONDS WITH CIGS OVC015-030 AND VSBY
3-5SM IN RA+ AND BR IN NUMEROUS SHRA+. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL ENSUE IN FG
AND SCT -SHRA WITH AREAS IFR BLO 1SM FG AND OVC008.
TUE MRNG...CIGS WILL RETURN MAINLY MVFR W/BKN-OVC020-030 WITH
VSBY P6SM ...SCT-BKN CIGS OVC015 VSBY 3SM -SHRA/TSTMS
SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-SAT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STUBBORN AND
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF
A HUGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A DEEP DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
OVER MUCH OF THE EAST. TROUGHS ARE GENERALLY NOT SUPPOSED TO BE THIS
AMPLIFIED AND DEEP DURING THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER...AND ITS NO WONDER
WE HAVE SEEN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINY WEATHER. WE ARE IN NO WAY
DONE WITH THIS RAINY WEATHER QUITE YET...BUT THE WORST APPEARS TO BE
OVER AND THERE IS SUNLIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL (PUN INTENDED)
LATER IN THE WEEK. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE FL PENINSULA. 02/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE CONFIRMS JUST HOW
MUCH MOISTURE THERE IS WITH AN ALMOST SATURATED COLUMN AND
IMPRESSIVE PW VALUE OF AROUND 2.3". A PW VALUE OF THIS LEVEL IS
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF PAST OBSERVED VALUES FOR EARLY JULY.
OUTSIDE OF THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE TROUGH AIDING THE
LIFT PROCESS...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE FEATURE HAS BEEN
WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SE GULF OF MEXICO AND LIKELY
FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
BECOME MORE STRETCHED/SHEARED OUT WITH TIME AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD
TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION HELPING TO BRING OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND MORE
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. REGIONAL RADARS ARE STILL ACTIVE WITH
SCT-NMRS SHOWERS RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH. AS OF 5AM THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE TREND FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY)...
TODAY...
YET ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE WILL BE SLOWLY STARTING TO LOSE
THE SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT WE ARE STILL LEFT WITH
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND NOTHING TO REALLY SUPPRESS THE
CONVECTION. SO WITH SOME LIMITED SYNOPTIC SUPPORT STILL AROUND AND
THE THE FAVORABLE COLUMN FOR CONVECTION WOULD EXPECT A HIGH COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. THE OVERALL TEMPORAL DURATION OF RAINFALL
TODAY IS LIKELY TO NOT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS DAYS...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. FORECAST GRIDS STILL SHOW LIKELY POPS AREA-WIDE AND THE RISK
OF TRAINING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS A
CONCERN. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
DUE TO THIS CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
BY TONIGHT THE REAL EMPHASIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MORE LIKELY JUST OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE SYNOPTIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORCED EVER FURTHER WEST INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR...WE MAY SEE A
GENERALLY DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD AFTER ANY LINGERING EVENING PURELY
INSTABILITY SHOWERS CAN DISSIPATE.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
STARTING TO BUILD/RETROGRADE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH
ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE AND THIS FAVORABLE COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SO ONCE AGAIN...MUCH OF
THE AREA IS UNDER LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THE TEMPORAL EXTENT OF ANY
RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SUNNY
BREAKS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BEGIN TO
CREEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK UP.
4TH OF JULY...
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST DAY THIS WEEK THAT STARTS TO RESEMBLE A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER FORECAST. THE MAIN SUPPRESSION FROM THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...OUR MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL START TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ANTI-CYCLONIC IN NATURE AND
THIS WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE.
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH WILL FEATURE A GENERALLY QUIET MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND...BUT JUST AS MUCH SUN FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A MORE TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER SOLAR INSOLATION ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO
PEAK BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY SPOTS. THE EVENING OF THE
4TH LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF MAN MADE AND SCATTERED MOTHER NATURE
FIREWORKS...HOWEVER OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL NOT BE DEALING WITH A
WASHOUT.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
A DLM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INITIALLY LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35/LONGITUDE
65-70 SLOWLY BUILDS AND SHIFTS WEST. THIS REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUES INTO MON AS A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) APPROACHES FL FROM THE
BAHAMAS. THE 01/12Z ECMWF AND THE 02/00Z GFS HANDLE THIS FEATURE
SIMILARITY.
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOW END SCATTERED RANGE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE MID 90S IN THE AFTERNOON. A RATHER ROBUST EAST AND SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE.
BY MON THE SURFACE REFECTION OF THE TUTT REACHES THE STATE WITH A
RELAXING EAST OR NE FLOW...ALLOWING A MORE UNIFORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTH WITH A BKN-OVC MID DECK.
EXPECT VCNTY SHRA WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND -RA OVERNIGHT...THEN
BKN MVFR CIGS DURING THE DAY WITH VCNTY TSRA RESULTING IN OCNL
MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING AND THEN REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING WINDS
ELEVATED...HOWEVER AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION...THE
HIGHEST SEAS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS RESULTED IN A FORECAST OF SEVERAL
LOCAL RIVERS REACHING ACTION STAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THIS
TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST...HOWEVER THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...THE CURRENT FORECASTS FOR CRESTS BELOW FLOOD STAGE MAY
NEED TO BE MODIFIED. RESIDENTS ALONG AREA RIVERS AND STREAM ARE
URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE MOST RECENT FORECASTS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOOD WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY. THE
LATEST RIVER FORECASTS CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TBW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE....BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DAILY
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 75 88 76 / 70 50 70 50
FMY 88 74 90 74 / 70 50 70 40
GIF 88 73 89 74 / 60 40 60 40
SRQ 88 75 89 75 / 70 60 70 50
BKV 86 73 89 72 / 70 50 70 40
SPG 85 77 87 77 / 70 60 70 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-
DESOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
FIRE WX/HYDROLOGY..MROCZKA
AVIATION/LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
152 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT INLAND AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PRODUCE
TIMES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND INTO
THE REGION AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...CONVEYOR BELT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES AS CONFIRMED BY 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECT
A GENERAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...WITH MOST AREAS
RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...JUSTIFYING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG/EAST OF I-95 AS SUGGESTED BY EARLY
MORNING RADAR TRENDS AND SOME GUIDANCE...OR WHETHER THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT INLAND AND INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95
OVERNIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM AND
THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY
PRECIPITATION WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
INCREASES AS SUGGESTED BY INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
TRAJECTORY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...PERHAPS LATER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH A SERIES OF POTENT SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER WET DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN DUE TO THE
VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DEEP RIDGE AND STRONG ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OVER
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES.
CURRENTLY...WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST DAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BAND OF HIGH PWATS MOVES BACK TO THE
WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. WEDNESDAY STILL FEATURES LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT A
BIT LOWER CLOSE TO THE COAST. BY THURSDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DRY
OUT CONSIDERABLY AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TAKES ON A MORE PROMINENT
ROLE IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. AS SUCH...THURSDAY FEATURES MUCH MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CHANCE POPS. ALSO...WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVERHEAD...HEIGHTS RISE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS GOOD AND FEATURES
A MUCH MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. THE
STRONG ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY
SETTLING NEARLY RIGHT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A
PROGRESSIVE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE EACH DAY. POPS WILL FEATURE A
DECREASING TREND EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THANKS TO THE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...BUT ALSO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRONOUNCED NVA ALOFT. FRIDAY POPS
FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCES TO CHANCE INLAND...WHICH THEN DECREASE TO
JUST SLIGHT CHANCES AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT AND HEIGHTS
INCREASING...TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 90S THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT
COMES TO THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS. THE FORECAST WILL
INDICATE SHOWERS PREVAILING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY FROM ABOUT 14-23Z. AFTER 23Z THE
FORECAST JUST HAS VICINITY SHOWERS AS THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE
AT LEAST A BRIEF LULL IN SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN THE FORM OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE INDICATED IN A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 09-13Z AT BOTH TERMINALS DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS...WILL MAINTAIN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND AMEND AS
TRENDS WARRANT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERIODICALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH INLAND
WILL KEEP A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND RESULT IN A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR. WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE
WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PUSH
COMBINED SEAS AS HIGH AS 5-8 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH ALL NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING THE
HARBOR...FALLING JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER LOCAL WINDS AT ANY TIME
TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY IMPROVE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THOUGH 6 FT SEAS WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BRINGING WITH IT A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...REDUCED
WINDS...AND LOWER SEAS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTED SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-15 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND
4-5 FT BEYOND.
RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES WHERE ONSHORE
WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 4 FT LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE
COAST. THE RISK WILL REMAIN MODERATE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES AND LOW ALONG THE GEORGIA BEACHES WHERE WINDS AND
SWELLS WILL BE WEAKER.
WE SHOW A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALL BEACHES ON
TUESDAY DUE TO MARGINAL SWELL COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A PERSISTENT REGIME FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTS NORTH OVER THE REGION...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED
BETWEEN DEEP LAYER/BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND UNUSUALLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
PLETHORA OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES ALONG WITH EPISODES OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN SOME LOCATIONS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD DUMP 2-4 INCHES
OF RAIN WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES COULD BECOME COMMON BY TUESDAY EVENING.
BECAUSE MUCH OF THE REGION IS RUNNING WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR PRECIPITATION...AND BECAUSE THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS/WEEK...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ROUGHLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ330.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR/JAQ
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JRL/SPR
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
418 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW IN MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWEST...WHILE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO CAROLINA COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ABUNDANT
MOISTURE HERE THROUGH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF AROUND 4 AM...RADAR SHOWING PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF
CWA...HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY IN SW VA. RAP SHOWS THIS
VORT MAX LIFTING THROUGH WV MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS SO
HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS WITH THAT. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WILL PICK UP WITH HEATING TODAY...HAVE LIKELY POPS MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSER THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ALSO
SEVERAL VORT MAXES LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NC AND VA. DEEPER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH REALLY STARTS BUILDING...SHOVING THE UPPER LOW BACK
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MAYBE A
BIT FASTER DOING THIS THAN THE GFS. NAM ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE VORT
MAXES WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH ACROSS THE WV MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...SO
REDEVELOPED LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. PWAT VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND 1.5 INCHES TODAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT AT BAY THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO
WATCH CONVECTION DEVELOP AND WATER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE IF IT
LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL HIT LOCALIZED LOWLAND AREAS THAT HAVE GOTTEN
A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. NAM THEN SHOWS THE
PWATS INCREASING TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLIDE IN...FORTUNATELY OUR MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES HAVE ALSO BEEN OUR DRIEST COUNTIES...WITH 3HR FFG OF 1.5 TO
2.5+ INCHES. DUE TO THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BUT CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO. AGAIN...WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW
THINGS DEVELOP AND PROGRESS WITH THE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS.
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMP FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IN THIS PATTERN...YOU DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO FANCY IN DETERMINING
EXACTLY WHEN REACH AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL THROUGH...
WHEN YOU ARE IN THE SHORT TERM...OR STILL 24 HOURS IN THE FUTURE AND
BEYOND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
RAIN HAS BEEN EFFICIENT EVEN WITH PW(S) OF 1.6 INCHES PAST FEW
DAYS. SO WE ARE CERTAINLY KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AGREEMENT ON VORT MAX AT 500 MB SLIDING NE OF CWA ALONG EASTERN
SLOPES WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO RAINS MAY DECREASE 12Z TO 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS THAT EXITS...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY.
00Z NAM TRIES TO PUSH THE NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN TO OUR
WEST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. EVEN IF THAT WAS THE CASE...HARD TO
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THAT AXIS...COME INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON. WILL IT STREAK DUE
NORTH...OR HAVE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT...BRINGING IT EAST...AND
DEEPER INTO OUR CWA.
TRIED TO LIMIT THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
ABUNDANT LAYERED CLOUDS.
THE ONLY GOOD FACTOR I CAN SEE...CONCERNING OUR FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...IS THAT THE 700 MB FLOW DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
BY THURSDAY...ABOUT 10 KNOTS FASTER THAN CURRENT FLOW.
DID INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY CRW TO
CKB ON THURSDAY...FIGURING ON A BIT MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COMPARED TO BOTH WEST AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH
THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...KEPT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...WITH MAINLY A DIURNAL
TREND. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS BY WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER
WESTWARD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF CWA TO THE NORTH AT THE MOMENT...AND DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO RETURN AGAIN UNTIL LATER TODAY WITH
HEATING AND THE NEXT VORT MAX COMING FROM THE SOUTH. WITH MOIST
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...IFR FOG EXPECT AT TYPICAL SPOTS
TONIGHT...AND MAY HAVE MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AREA WIDE...AND
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSITY AND TIMING OF FOG/LOW CEILINGS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED TEMPOS LATER TODAY TO DEAL WITH
CONVECTION.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 07/02/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H H H M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L H M M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO IFR IN LOWER
CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING POCAHONTAS COUNTY LATE
TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
417 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OFF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO FADE SHRA THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE
LIFTING REMNANT SHRA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THUS
WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW LIKELY/CHANCE POPS MOST SPOTS ESPCLY
EASTERN HALF EARLY ON.
OTRW MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY...AND IN TURN HELPS PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS NEAR
THE COAST WESTWARD. MODELS ALSO SHOW AT LEAST SOME CHANNELED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PARALLEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TODAY. THIS LIFT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE TIME OF BEST HEATING...AND MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE CURRENT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG/EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A RATHER
STRONG UNDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP BANDS OR
STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN A TRAINING SETUP WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THIS IN COMBO WITH PWATS OF NEAR 2
INCHES COULD PROVIDE A VERY EFFICENT REGIME FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ESPCLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING ESPCLY IF MORE HEATING IS
REALIZED EARLY ON. GUIDANCE AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
MOST COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP PER HANDLING OF WAVES BUT AGREE A BIT
MORE ON HAVING MORE BANDING THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SUPPORTED
BY DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SUPPORTS
CAT/LIKELY POPS MOST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAIN MENTION SOUTH/EAST. STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN TO FLOOD
POTENTIAL PER HIGH FFG IN JULY AND ONLY POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THINK THREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EAST AND OVERNIGHT WEST FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MAV MOS GIVEN SUCH A WARM
START AND POSSIBLE BREAKS AT TIMES.
BANDS OF SHRA MAY AGAIN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
LINGERING AND UPPER FLOW STAYING PUT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
THE CHANNEL OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AIDED SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE
THE WATCH TO GO FARTHER NW BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY CAN LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTRW RUNNING WITH CAT TO LIKELY POPS WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS WEST. LOW TEMPS MAINLY MUGGY MID 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN BELT/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. UTILIZED HPCQPF FOR PLACEMENT
OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY....THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES ON THE HOLIDAY REMAIN IN THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN
STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET
MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S IN THE EAST...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE EAST. HIGHS COULD WARM INTO THE
MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RICH CLOUD COVER...WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF NOON EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN BUILDING
WWD THIS PERIOD AND PUTTING AN END TO THE WETTER PATTERN.
HOWEVER...IN ITS PLACE WILL BE A HOT...HUMID AIRMASS WITH THE DAILY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT IS TYPICAL
OF MOST SUMMERS AROUND HERE. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT WHILE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 80S MOUNTAINS TO
SOME 90S OUT EAST...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY...AS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE TRANSITION BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO LESS RAIN AND MORE
HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SHOWED
NORTH END OF PRECIPITATION ERODING/DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. SPOTTY
SHOWERS MAY REACH BCB IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. MORE
CONCENTRATED SHRAS/TSRA MAY AFFECT KDAN...WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...LAMP GUIDANCE
IS REALLY AGGRESSIVE WITH ONSET OF IFR CIGS TONIGHT MOST STATIONS.
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS WHICH RECIEVED RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WAS LIMITED AND THUS SHOULD HINDER
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
OUR NEXT SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
ARRIVE AROUND 12Z/8AM ON TUESDAY...AND BRING A GENEROUS SWATH OF
RAIN INTO AN AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KMWK-KLYH-KFVX
LINE BY 18Z/2PM TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STALLED UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION. ALSO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BY A GENEROUS FLOW FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...WITH PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING CHANCES
OF A BROADER EXPANSE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GET ADVECTED WEST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO RETROGRADE. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONE
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING JET ALOFT COMBO WITH WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE REGION OF CONCERN IN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED AS A DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL TRAJECTORY STAYS PUT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE LOOKS TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SAW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT PWATS
DURING JULY WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL THREAT OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
RATE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ESPCLY IF
TRAINING IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY THAT WILL BE
NEEDED TO DRIVE THE DEEPER CONVECTION...AND WITH EXACTLY WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA MIGHT SET UP. THUS THINK BEST COURSE IS
TO FINALLY GO AHEAD IN HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CTYS INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT SRN
BLUE RIDGE WHERE GOT SOAKED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-022-
032>034-043-044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ035-045>047-058-
059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/KK/KM
HYDROLOGY...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
130 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE EAST COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OFFER THE
REGION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT MONDAY...
TEMPERATURES AND POPS SHAPED ACCORDING TO LATEST WSR-88D
AND OBS TREND. BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.
AS OF 749 PM EDT MONDAY...
LACK OF ANY TRIGGER/SHRTWVS...WITH ACTUALLY MOST OF THE REGION IN
NVA/SINKING MOTION...KEPT STORMS TO A MINIMUM TODAY. ATTM...LINE
OF STORMS SLOWLY APPROACHING FAR SW VA...SNEAKING INTO KJFZ OVER
THE NEXT HOUR IS ASSOC WITH AN UPPER WAVE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE RNK/RLX CWA BORDER. IF THUNDER REMAINS...CONSIDERING
ITS SLOW MOVEMENT AND MORE RAIN TO THE SW...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.
POSSIBLY ANOTHER DEVELOPING LINE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT SHOULD
INCREASE TONIGHT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHSIDE LATER TONIGHT...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE TWO REGIONS WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS
OVERNIGHT...ALSO THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT CONTINUING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
ANOTHER FEATURE WE ARE MONITORING IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING NORTH THROUGH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
THROUGH OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...STARTING AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY THOSE REGIONS ALONG
THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO DEW POINT VALUES IN THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. ON TUESDAY...LOWER HIGHS AS COMPARED
TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED THANKS TO GREATER ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION AS COMPARED TO TODAY. A MIX OF LOW TO MID 70S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
FORECAST WILL MAINLY DEAL WITH THE SRLY FLOW AND RAIN/SHOWERS AND
TSRA OFF AND ON THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
WRN ATLANTIC RETROGRADES SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN
BELT/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE EMPHASIS MORE ON
RAIN OVER THE EAST TO THE WRN CWA.
THE MODELS ARE VARYING ON THE DEGREE OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY NIGHT-
THU...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IN THIS TIME FRAME THE HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS AND WHAT TIMES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AS PWATS STAY
IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TOWARD THE ECMWF/GFS SINCE THE NAM WAS SHOWING MORE
SPORADIC BULLSEYES WITH QPF AND DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL THIS MORNING
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL PLACEMENT.
FOR SENSIBLE WX...TUE NIGHT WILL SEE THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ALONG
AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS IMPULSES SHIFT NWD FROM SC INTO
CENTRAL VA. BY WEDNESDAY ALL OF THE CWA SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME
RAIN...WITH ECMWF/GFS HITTING MORE THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS NORTH
INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS BETTER...WITH POSSIBLY LESS COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AS THE FLOW TURNS SE.
WED NIGHT-THU....WE START TO SEE THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WWD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE
TN/OHIO VALLEYS. WILL BE LOWERING POPS IN THE EAST TO CHANCE WED
NIGHT WHILE KEEPING LIKELYS IN THE SW.
NOT SOLD ON COMPLETELY DRYING OUT THE EAST THURSDAY AS THE NAM
INDICATES GIVEN THE AIRMASS REMAINING TROPICAL...SO THINK 40/50 POPS
EAST TO LIKELYS WEST SHOULD DO IT FOR THURSDAY.
ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD THE THREAT OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT IT CLOSE THE ECMWF/GFS WITH LOWS STAYING
WARM AND HIGHS A LITTLE COOL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY BUT WARMING IT
SOME IN THE EAST THURSDAY WITH SOME MORE SUN POSSIBLE. SO BASICALLY
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS 70S WEST TO LOWER
80S EAST WED...WARMING TO MID 80S EAST THURSDAY WHILE THE MOUNTAINS
STAY IN THE 70S OVERALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF NOON EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN BUILDING
WWD THIS PERIOD AND PUTTING AN END TO THE WETTER PATTERN.
HOWEVER...IN ITS PLACE WILL BE A HOT...HUMID AIRMASS WITH THE DAILY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT IS TYPICAL
OF MOST SUMMERS AROUND HERE. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT WHILE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 80S MOUNTAINS TO
SOME 90S OUT EAST...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY...AS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE TRANSITION BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO LESS RAIN AND MORE
HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SHOWED
NORTH END OF PRECIPITATION ERODING/DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. SPOTTY
SHOWERS MAY REACH BCB IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. MORE
CONCENTRATED SHRAS/TSRA MAY AFFECT KDAN...WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...LAMP GUIDANCE
IS REALLY AGGRESSIVE WITH ONSET OF IFR CIGS TONIGHT MOST STATIONS.
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS WHICH RECIEVED RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WAS LIMITED AND THUS SHOULD HINDER
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
OUR NEXT SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
ARRIVE AROUND 12Z/8AM ON TUESDAY...AND BRING A GENEROUS SWATH OF
RAIN INTO AN AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KMWK-KLYH-KFVX
LINE BY 18Z/2PM TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STALLED UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION. ALSO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BY A GENEROUS FLOW FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...WITH PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING CHANCES
OF A BROADER EXPANSE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE CONVECTIVE AND ISOLATED NATURE OF PRECIPITATION THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND INTO THE START OF TONIGHT OFFER THE SAME CHALLENGE
REGARDING ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH POTENTIAL. ISSUE A WATCH FOR A BROAD
AREA...AND WE MIGHT GET A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THIS VAST AREA WITH HEAVY
CELLS THAT MANAGE TO TRAIN ENOUGH TO PROMPT FLASH FLOODING. THE OTHER
OPTION IS TO HOLD OFF ON WATCHES UNTIL/IF ONGOING CELLS APPEAR THEY
ARE GOING TO LINE UP WITH THE FEW LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY
RAIN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN TARGET THAT SPECIFIC AREA.
THEN WE MIGHT HAVE A WATCH FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF
A WARNING...ASSUMING ONE IS NEEDED. GOING TO YIELD TO THIS SECOND
SCENARIO FOR THE ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
HOT SPOTS TO WATCH ARE SOUTHWEST WILKES COUNTY NC...CENTRAL
ALLEGHANY CO NC...AND PORTIONS OF CAMPBELL...APPOMATTOX...AND
CHARLOTTE COUNTIES IN VA.
REGARDING TUESDAY...WHILE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GREATER...BASIN
AVERAGE EXPECTED 18 HR QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EVEN 6 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THIS SAME REGION IS ROUGHLY THREE TIMES THIS
QUANTITY. WILL HOLD ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME FOR THE DAYTIME
TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...KK/KM
SHORT TERM...DS/WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/KK/KM
HYDROLOGY...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1132 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS CONTINUES TO RE-INITIATE CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS
HAS RUN SOUTHWEST FROM WAUSAU WISCONSIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
JACKSON COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN FEEDING ON ABOUT 1000
J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...OUTFLOW HAS BEEN
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30-40MPH AT TIMES. AS SURFACE BASED CIN
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT THAT THESE
STORMS WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE SURFACE BASED FORCING AND FALL APART.
MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME FOG TO THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THIS
RAIN...PARTICULARLY THE CRANBERRY BOGS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG I-94/90.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST COVER THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. MOSINEE...KCWA...DID
REPORT -RA IN THE PAST HALF HOUR...SO THE PRECIPITATION IS
REACHING THE GROUND. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THE RUNS FROM
THE UP OF MICHIGAN DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS AS
WELL WITH SOME SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN RUNNING INTO SOME MORE NORTHERLY WINDS IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE 01.20 HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT...THOUGH
OVERDONE...COMPARISON TO RADAR AND SHOWS THESE SHOWERS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
WANES ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
CONDITIONS...BUT GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW BRIEF GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30KTS OR SO WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ANOTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN BETWEEN...A CUT OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE 01.12Z MODEL SUITE WHICH CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS FORCES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THESE WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY WEAK
FORCING OVER THE REGION WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING THESE
WAVES WITH LESS THAN 4 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE LACKING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE RIGHT OVER
THE AREA BRINGING A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS MAY BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH THE
COLD CORE ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 6
AND 7 C/KM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN BY LATE AFTERNOON TO AID IN
THE INSTABILITY. CAPES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS TO BE A TALL SKINNY CAPE. ENOUGH THOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO REAL
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND STARTS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH SOME LOW END CAPE TO POP SOME
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND WILL SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THAT...ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN
THE PROCESS OF MERGING INTO ONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS TEND TO TAKE FRONTS TOO FAR SOUTH IN
THESE PATTERNS SO HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
INITIAL QUESTION IS WITH WHETHER ANY OF THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION WILL MAKE IT INTO LSE.
CURRENTLY THINK THAT THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD TAKE THEM SOUTH OF THE
SITE...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER/STORM OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...VALLEY FOG IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY
AT LSE...BUT COULD OCCUR IF SOME RAIN FALLS IN THE VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A CUMULUS FIELD FORMING BY AFTERNOON. CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER HITTING RST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
WAY TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO PUT SOMETHING INTO THE TAF.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1021 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATE SENT FOR ISOLD CONVECTION WITHIN ACCAS FIELD OVER WESTERN
CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF VORT MAX NEAR CHARLES CITY SAGGING SSW
TOWARD MARSHALLTOWN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED WITH
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON IN CORRIDOR FROM WEST OF DUBUQUE TO
WASHINGTON. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH ISOLD COVERAGE BUT THE
MORE RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SUGGEST COULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP UP HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS
BY 2-4 DEGS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. FAR EAST AND PORTIONS OF WEST
THAT SEE CLOUDS MAY BE HELD DOWN INTO THE MID 70S.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW HAD MOVED
FROM WESTERN KY TO SOUTHERN IL SINCE EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NE THROUGH NORTHERN MN
WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN IL UPPER LOW WAS MOVING WEST THROUGH
CENTRAL AND AND NORTHEASTERN IL. ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF
-SHRA/-TSRA AS MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHRA/TSRA WERE OCCURRING JUST A HEAD OF A SMALL
VORT CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST MN PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
WITH THE UPPER LOW BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE HOLDING
ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD TODAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE
OR ELEVATED CAPE OVER THIS AREA THIS MORNING BUT CAPES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE RIVER. SO MOST OF THE PRECIP EAST TODAY
SHOULD BE SHRA WITH ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE RIVER. SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALSO INTRODUCED OVER THE
NW TODAY. THE SMALL CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...THE NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE CAPES AROUND 1500J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS READINGS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
KEEPING HIGHS EAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
TONIGHT KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHRA SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED
TO BE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MINS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS BUT STILL IN THE MID OR UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK THEN TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY AND 4TH OF JULY...WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE DVN
CWA BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY/VERTICAL MOTION TO
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FOR THE 4TH OF JULY THERE
SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS/FILLS
EVEN FURTHER. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PLEASANT FOR EARLY
JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 75 TO 80.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA ALLOWING FOR A ZONAL FLOW TO
RETURN ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...A CHUNK OF THE
ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE MIDWEST. THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A MORE TYPICAL EARLY JULY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS RISING WELL
INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD ALSO BE A DRY FEW
DAYS WITH LACK OF A TRIGGER...AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY INTO THE CWA. AN
UPPER LOW ALSO LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY MID WEEK A DEEPENING NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
DRIVE THE COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BACK INTO THE DVN CWA.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN A STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MO THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH
SPREADING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH CENTRAL
IL. MOST OF THE THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF KCID THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1138 AM EDT TUE JUL 02 2013
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
Upper low continues to spin over southern IL this morning, with the
most persistent rain just north and west of the center. To the east
of the center over our forecast area, water vapor imagery shows a
relative dry slot aloft. This tops ample low-level moisture as
evidenced by abundant low clouds this morning, and OHX and ILN 12z
soundings showing low-level moisture. As expected, the low
stratiform clouds are not beginning to dissipate leaving more
cumuliform clouds over central KY. Temperatures have been slow to
warm this morning under the low clouds, but now should rise nicely
through the afternoon into the lower 80s in many locations (except
near 80 in parts of south-central IN).
Main forecast challenge is location and coverage of any afternoon
convection. Water vapor imagery also showed a weakening subtle
shortwave roughly near Memphis which could promote cell growth on
the eastern periphery of the upper low. This would mean western/
west-central KY (our western forecast area) might have a slightly
better chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Also,
better moisture influx and diurnal heating over eastern KY and our
eastern forecast area should promote cell growth in that area, which
is supported by recent runs of the HRRR and local WRF models.
In-between over central KY, there may be a relatively minimum of
convective cells this afternoon. Nevertheless, given the synoptic
set-up and at least some destabilization this afternoon, at least
isolated convection is still expected, especially where local cloud
boundaries set up to promote mesoscale forcing. Activity should wane
later this evening as the boundary layer again stabilizes.
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
A quick update this morning to account for latest cloud, precip, and
fog trends. Morning visible data shows a good deal of low clouds
over forecast area, especially northern and western two-thirds of
central KY and south-central IN. Fog also remains prevalent at some
locations, although visibilities will improve through the rest of
the morning. Expect low stratus clouds to eventually scour out to
some degree late this morning and early afternoon, as cumulus clouds
begin to take their place. Currently, no precip is in our forecast
area, but isolated to scattered cells are expected this afternoon as
daytime heating and instability increase, as detailed in short term
discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through tonight)...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
With the upper-level low just off to our west-northwest, central KY
and southern IN are currently in a relative dry slot. Thanks to an
abundance of rainfall in some locations over the past few days,
though, low-level moisture is abundant, and areas of fog and low
stratus have been drifting over several AWOS/ASOS sites, with
visibilities dropping below a mile at times. The low clouds and fog
will persist into mid morning, hindering a rise in temperatures in
those locations until late morning. By that time, diurnal heating in
the areas that had been clear will initiate cumulus development,
which will help slow down rising temperatures in those areas.
Thanks to the nearby upper-level low and the high low-level RH, a
few of the cumulus should grow into thunderstorms, though with the
low inching away to the NNW, we look to stay in the relative dry
slot for the most part, so areal coverage should not be nearly as
high as the past few days. While most will therefore not see rain,
the atmospheric conditions for heavy rains - albeit isolated - still
prevail, so a very few locations could see significant amounts,
while most remain dry. For now, both the models and current
satellite trends indicate the best location for thunder to be along
the I-75 corridor in the eastern part of our forecast area, but as
has been the case the past few days, a lingering boundary or subtle
perturbation elsewhere could generate a soaker elsewhere.
With all of the moisture and clouds around, highs today will remain
5-10 degrees below seasonal norms, ranging from the mid 70s in
locations seeing little sunshine to the lower 80s in those spots
with less clouds. Lows tonight should dip back into the 60s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
...Unsettled weather pattern continues for much of the Ohio Valley...
The mid-level reflection of our large low pressure system will be
positioned across Missouri and Iowa Wednesday, while both east and
west coasts of the CONUS will be under high pressure. The
upper-level low is forecast to retrograde, lift northward and get
swept up in the westerlies through the weekend. As this occurs,
Bermuda high pressure sitting across the eastern CONUS will shift
west and have more of an influence on our forecast area.
With the upper-level low still controlling our weather Wednesday,
diurnal clouds and convection are expected. However, guidance is
starting to show some activity late Wednesday night and again
Thursday mainly for locations along and east of I-65 as a few vort
maxes round the western side of the Bermuda high and interact with
an axis of lower-level moisture from the Gulf. As the high builds
further west, this moisture axis will also shift west and much of
the forecast area will experience a good amount of convection Friday
and into Friday night. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it
is not going to be a total washout through the period but several
rounds of convection will move through, providing most locations
with rainfall. Once again, locally heavy rainfall will be the main
concern with th convective activity Wednesday through Friday night.
From Saturday through Monday, the Bermuda high will strengthen it`s
grip in the Ohio Valley, with temperatures and moisture continuing
to increase. As heights aloft increase, we should see a decrease in
afternoon and evening convective coverage. However, should still
experience scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early
evening hours, as there will be plenty of moisture and limited
afternoon capping. Not seeing much in the way of a trigger other
than differential heating boundaries and outflow from any convection
that does fire. Localized heavy rainfall would be the main threat
with any convection that does develop.
As for temperatures, highs Wednesday should top out in the lower
80s. Expect temperatures Thursday and Friday to remain on the cool
side for this time of year, as clouds hold strong and waves of
showers/storms track across the region. Middle 70s to lower 80s are
expected at this time. From Saturday through Monday, the Bermuda
high should be more of an influence on our weather, which will send
temperatures into the low and middle 80s Saturday, and middle to
upper 80s by Monday. Overnight lows will show a similar trend, with
lower to middle 60s Wednesday night giving way to upper 60s and
lower 70s by Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2013
IFR stratus and fog were in and out overnight at the three TAF
sites. Visibilities have been increasing over the past 1-2 hours
while stratus has expanded in areal coverage.
The stratus should start to erode with the rising sun, and by 15Z
clouds will be driven more by mixing with CIGs rising to MVFR.
With a surface Low over far western Kentucky, winds will be light
easterly...becoming more southeast as the main circulation center
works its way northward.
Convection will be less widespread than the past few days, with the
favored area for TSRA being INVOF LEX, though the chance cannot be
eliminated from BWG and SDF.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........TWF
Short Term.......JBS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........JBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1113 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE PESKY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS AFFECTED THE REGION OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN THE AREA. IT WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...AND BRING AN AREA OF RAINFALL IN
WITH IT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A LOW CHANCE WILL REMAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING A BRIEF LULL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
HRRR DOING PRETTY WELL WITH THE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
STRETCHING FROM SAUGATUCK UP TO CENTRAL LOWER. IR SATELLITE AND
HRRR BOTH SUPPORT LULL IN PCPN WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AFTER
THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH. HRRR PULSES UP ACTIVITY AT 19-20Z. NAM
AND RAP BOTH FOCUS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE PAINTS A PESSIMISTIC PICTURE POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON SUN. TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED DOWN MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN TRENDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND ALSO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WED.
CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING HIGH THIS MORNING THAT ROUGHLY THE SE THIRD
TO HALF OF THE CWFA WILL SEE RAINFALL OCCUR TODAY. RAINFALL IS
EXPANDING NICELY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO
KALAMAZOO. THIS IS RESULTING FROM SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE THAT IS HEADING TOWARD DETROIT. WE ARE
SEEING SOME OF THE DEFORMATION OCCURRING ON THE NW PORTION OF THIS
WAVE. THE BEST RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDS ON ACROSS THE SE BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT LATER AS IT
PUSHES N AND NW.
WE EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO KEEP EXPANDING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE SHEARS
A
BIT AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES. EVEN AS THIS HAPPENS...WE
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO POSSIBLE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH
THE UPPER LOW/MID LEVEL COLD POOL ROTATING CLOSER TO THE AREA.
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT
STABLE FOR THE TIME BEING. WE DO EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD
SOUTH OF I-96 THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTS
JUST NORTH AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD OPEN UP.
WE WILL SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH A BIT IN COVERAGE AS THE
INITIAL WAVE SHEARS OUT AND AS WE LOSE OUR DIURNAL BOOST TO THE
INSTABILITY. PCPN CHCS WILL NOT TOTALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WE
WILL SEE WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE IN FROM THE SSW AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS DUE TO
THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL NEARBY.
THESE SHORT WAVES COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON WED COMPARED TO
TODAY...BUT RAINFALL IN GENERAL WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD. WE WILL
SEE THE SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 80 WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S BUILD ML CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE LOW ITSELF AND POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZES COULD BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WED. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
WEST...WE WILL SEE BETTER MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO. IF WE CAN SEE
MORE SUN TO BUILD THE INSTABILITY MORE...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WED AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT
AREA OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. FCST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PLACE.
THE BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES WILL SHIFT MORE EAST FOR THE DAY ON
THU. BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVES STAYING EAST
WILL FOCUS THE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA AND
EAST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE WAY FOR SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN. THAT IS... WARM AND HUMID WITH THE RISK OF A LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARMTH CONTINUES MONDAY WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH? JUST
HOW QUICKLY DOES IT GET REPLACED BY THE EXPANDING WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (BERMUDA HIGH)? TYPICALLY THE MODELS DISSIPATE
THESE FEATURES TO QUICKLY AND LIKELY THAT WILL BE THE CASE THIS
WEEKEND.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IS COLD FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM THAT SHEARS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM
WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PUT SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN IN THE RING OF FIRE FOR CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD START EXTENDED WET PERIOD FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
BUT THIS TIME IT WILL BE WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID WITH THE FRONT
LARGELY STALLING JUST NORTH OF HERE.
AS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND OUR WARMING TREND IN OUR DAILY
TEMPERATURES... THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE DISSIPATING UPPER TROUGH
(WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES) AND INCOMING PACIFIC STORM (SHEARED OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM) PUTS SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN IN A DEEP...WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING
BERMUDA HIGH. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
CONUS BEING SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. BASICALLY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BRING
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (LIKELY OUR
FORECAST HIGHS ARE TO CONSERVATIVE). WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND OF THE COAST... AND DEW POINTS IN THE
60S... ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY BUT THE RISK IN ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE RATHER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES AROUND 12Z WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS ARE MOSTLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BUT THEY TOO WILL LIFT OUT AFTER
15Z. THUS VFR CIGS/VSBY WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. AFTER 06Z A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY. THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY THIS WILL MOSTLY IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 94 TAF SITES.
AFTER 12Z THIS AREA OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
INTERSTATE 96 TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS AND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE HYDROLOGY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FOCUSED ON THE HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. BASIN
AVERAGES SHOULD BE UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND WE WILL SEE POSSIBLE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN. EVENTUALLY
THE PCPN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ON WED AND THU...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THOSE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EBW
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
TODAY AND TONIGHT LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS WE REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... BUT SEE
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE LITTLE OVER THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS... HENCE THE EXPECTATION FOR
MINIMAL CHANGES IN CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY... SO WE
SHOULDN/T GET QUITE AS WARM... BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL STILL TOP 80.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS STILL APPEAR A BIT OVERDONE WITH LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE... PARTICULARLY GIVEN DECENT MIXING DURING
THE AFTERNOON... 700-500MB LAPSE RATES REMAIN DECENT... AND WE
SHOULD STILL HAVE SOME DEGREE OF FORCING FROM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY... THE VARIOUS CAM
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING HOPWRF... MPXWRF... AND THE NMM/ARW HIRES WINDOW
RUNS... INDICATE MLCAPE WILL REACH AOA 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY. THE INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY POOLED IN TWO AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
ONE AREA OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ANOTHER
OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. DON/T HAVE MUCH REASON TO DOUBT WHAT
THE CAMS ARE DOING WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHRA IN THOSE
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON... SO INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY FROM AROUND 20-02Z ACROSS THE WESTERN... SOUTHERN... AND
EASTERN CWFA. ANY DAYTIME ENHANCED CU/SHRA SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING... WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE FORECAST READS MAINLY DRY UNTIL SATURDAY...HOWEVER...AS IS THE
CASE TODAY...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 02.00Z NCEP WRF ARW/NMM RUNS SHOW
LESS ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADES WITH TIME...SO WE WILL REMAIN COOL
ALOFT AND SHOULD DEFINITELY BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME CUMULUS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 02.00Z GFS
GENERATES QPF VIRTUALLY EVERY PERIOD SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BL MOISTURE OFF THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE OVERDONE AND EVEN THE NAM IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MOIST GIVEN
THE MIXING WE HAVE WITNESSED THE PAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS.
THEREFORE...LIKE KEEPING THE 5-14% POPS IN THE FORECAST...THUS
IMPLYING THERE COULD BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED SHOWERS. IF THERE IS A
PERIOD...WHERE I COULD SEE ADDING POPS AT SOME POINT...IT WOULD BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE DO SEE AN INCREASE IN 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND JUST ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW THAT
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER SE MN.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS STILL GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN INCREASING LLJ
AND MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WARMEST 850 MB TEMPS
WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MN/WI
SHOULD BE ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP WITH 700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 10-12
DEGREES. WHILE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION
EXISTS THIS FAR OUT. THE PATTERN SHIFT BY THE WEEKEND WARRANTS AN
INCREASE IN THE POPS. WE HAVE 40-60% THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IT ALSO APPEARS ONCE WE GET
INTO THE WETTER/WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY...IT HANGS
AROUND UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
ANOTHER QUIET FORECAST PERIOD IS IN STORE... WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION... BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST IS HELPING TO
KEEP SOME COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALOFT... WHICH WILL ONCE
AGAIN LEAD TO SOME SCT TO LOCALLY BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHRA ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER... MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH LOW
LEVEL FORCING/CONVERGENCE. THE BEST INSTABILITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA... WITH AN AREA
OF HIGHER STABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL SITES. THE SHORT RANGE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS... INCLUDING HRRR AND THE HOPWRF ENSEMBLE...
MATCH UP WELL WITH THIS THINKING... WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE WEST. REGARDLESS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHEAST
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTATIONS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ONLY
POSSIBLE ISSUE WOULD BE WHETHER THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME
BKN CEILINGS AOA 5K FT AGL LATER THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WITH THE
BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAT DOES
NOT LOOK AS LIKELY AS YESTERDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOUTH WIND AROUND 5 KT INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH WIND 10
TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1047 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 930 AM... SAME PATTERN AS LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES IN
PLACE... WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE FROM DAY TO DAY
WHICH WILL MAKE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE ACTUAL WEATHER. ONE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY APPEARS TO BE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE HEATING POTENTIAL TODAY WITH
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALREADY SHOWING SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN
THE OVERCAST. BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN MODEL CAPE FORECASTS
WITH THE NAM/GFS ONLY INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG. BASED ON
ALREADY SEEING SOME BREAKS AND CURRENT SPC ANALYSIS ALREADY
INDICATING 500 J/KG OVER NE PA EXPECT THAT SOME PLACES WILL AT
LEAST REACH 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME STRONG
CONVECTION WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30
KTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION WITH MULTICELL
CLUSTERS THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF CONECTIVE STORM THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
LTL MVMT OF THE OVERALL PTRN IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE SLY FLOW
CONTG. DFCLT TO LOCATE AND FOLLOW SHRT WVS WILL CONT TO TRIGGER
PATCHES OF SHWRS AND HEAVY. SO...XPCT CONTD WARM TOPPED CONV AND
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKES WHERE 30 TO 40 DBZ SHWRS PRODUCE AN INCH OF
RAIN IN AN HOUR. PWATS CONT WELL ABV NRML APRCHG 2 INCHES AND LTL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAKES FOR THE RISK OF CONTD TRAINING CELLS.
WEAK WV SEEMS TO BE POISED TO PASS NEAR PK HTG SO XPCT INCRSD
SHWR/TRW ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN. SEE NO REASON TO CHG THE CRNT FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE ANTICIPATED PCPN WITH WET GND CONDS AND RVR LVLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RDG OFF THE ATLANTIC CST EDGES WWRD THRU THE PD. THIS PUSHES A
SIGNIFICANT WV MVG NWRD IN THE FLOW WWRD AND SOMEWHAT WEAKENS
IT...LDG TO LESS PCPN FOR THE FCST AREA. STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONV BUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC UNDER THE
BLDG...LESS CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINS.
DRIER AIR REALLY BECOMES APRNT ON THU AS DEEP MOISTURE IS BACK
OVER OH AND RDGG BLDS INTO NY. STILL ENUF INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE
POPS THU AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES MADE.
4 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MORE OF THE SAME INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO
SW FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SLOWLY SHIFTS TO ZONAL FROM THE DEEP MIDWEST TROF. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LONG TERM GOES ON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. MORE FLOODING LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG COMBINED WITH A LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL AFFECT EACH TAF SITE. CURRENTLY SHOWERS ARE SE OF KBGM AND EXPECT
THESE STORMS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE WHEN THE SUN
HEATS UP THE LOWER ATMOS AND THE AIR BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
SHOWERS WILL BE MFVR WITH EMBEDDED IFR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WHEN
THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO DIMINISH...IFR CONDITIONS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN
ACTIVITY WILL END...THUS LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.
OUTLOOK... WED THROUGH SAT... VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. AFTN
SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1045 AM DISCUSSION
TROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BROUGHT BANDS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION YESTERDAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST AXES GENERALLY IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. POCKETS OF 3
TO 4 INCHES CAUSED HAVOC IN SEVERAL OF THE SUSQUEHANNA TRIBUTARIES
WITH RAPID RISE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HEADWATERS AT CORTLAND ON THE TIOUGHNIOGA...ALONG
WITH SHERBURNE AND NORWICH ON THE CHENANGO RAPIDLY ROSE TO MODERATE
MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS. THIS MORNING...5 LOCATIONS REMAIN UNDER FLOOD
WARNINGS AS THE WATER SLOWLY RECEDES ON THE HEADWATER TRIBS...AND
SURGES INTO THE MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA IN NEW YORK. GENERALLY MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS ARE FORECAST FROM CONKLIN TO WAVERLY.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE...RAINFALL FORECASTS UP TO AN INCH IN THE
NEXT 72 HOURS THAT WERE INJECTED INTO THE HYDRAULIC MODELS DO NOT
SUGGEST ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE RIVER LEVELS WITH ANY NEW
FLOODING. ATMOSPHERIC MODELS SUGGEST A DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET AND INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS LENDS TO A RATHER TENUOUS FORECAST SITUATION...AS WE WILL
REMAIN WITHIN A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE
BOUNDARIES AND AREAS TO FOCUS NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AT THIS
POINT...I WOULD EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR CHANGES TO RIVER
FORECAST LEVELS AT POINTS YET TO BE DETERMINED SHOULD HEAVY SW-NE
ORIENTED BANDING AND TRAINING OF CELLS DEVELOP. THIS IS PRIMARILY
A CONCERN FOR THE TRIBUTARIES...BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MAIN STEMS COULD RESPOND TO HEAVY RAIN IN A QUICK MANNER.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
941 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 930 AM... SAME PATTERN AS LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES IN
PLACE... WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE FROM DAY TO DAY
WHICH WILL MAKE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE ACTUAL WEATHER. ONE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY APPEARS TO BE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE HEATING POTENTIAL TODAY WITH
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALREADY SHOWING SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN
THE OVERCAST. BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN MODEL CAPE FORECASTS
WITH THE NAM/GFS ONLY INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG. BASED ON
ALREADY SEEING SOME BREAKS AND CURRENT SPC ANALYSIS ALREADY
INDICATING 500 J/KG OVER NE PA EXPECT THAT SOME PLACES WILL AT
LEAST REACH 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME STRONG
CONVECTION WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30
KTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION WITH MULTICELL
CLUSTERS THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF CONECTIVE STORM THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
LTL MVMT OF THE OVERALL PTRN IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE SLY FLOW
CONTG. DFCLT TO LOCATE AND FOLLOW SHRT WVS WILL CONT TO TRIGGER
PATCHES OF SHWRS AND HEAVY. SO...XPCT CONTD WARM TOPPED CONV AND
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKES WHERE 30 TO 40 DBZ SHWRS PRODUCE AN INCH OF
RAIN IN AN HOUR. PWATS CONT WELL ABV NRML APRCHG 2 INCHES AND LTL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAKES FOR THE RISK OF CONTD TRAINING CELLS.
WEAK WV SEEMS TO BE POISED TO PASS NEAR PK HTG SO XPCT INCRSD
SHWR/TRW ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN. SEE NO REASON TO CHG THE CRNT FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE ANTICIPATED PCPN WITH WET GND CONDS AND RVR LVLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RDG OFF THE ATLANTIC CST EDGES WWRD THRU THE PD. THIS PUSHES A
SIGNIFICANT WV MVG NWRD IN THE FLOW WWRD AND SOMEWHAT WEAKENS
IT...LDG TO LESS PCPN FOR THE FCST AREA. STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONV BUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC UNDER THE
BLDG...LESS CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINS.
DRIER AIR REALLY BECOMES APRNT ON THU AS DEEP MOISTURE IS BACK
OVER OH AND RDGG BLDS INTO NY. STILL ENUF INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE
POPS THU AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES MADE.
4 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MORE OF THE SAME INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO
SW FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SLOWLY SHIFTS TO ZONAL FROM THE DEEP MIDWEST TROF. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LONG TERM GOES ON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. MORE FLOODING LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG COMBINED WITH A LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL AFFECT EACH TAF SITE. CURRENTLY SHOWERS ARE SE OF KBGM AND EXPECT
THESE STORMS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE WHEN THE SUN
HEATS UP THE LOWER ATMOS AND THE AIR BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
SHOWERS WILL BE MFVR WITH EMBEDDED IFR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WHEN
THIS ACTIVITY STARTS TO DIMINISH...IFR CONDITIONS OF LOW CIGS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN
ACTIVITY WILL END...THUS LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.
OUTLOOK... WED THROUGH SAT... VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. AFTN
SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1020 PM UPDATE...
A MULTITUDE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OCCURRED TODAY.
THINGS ARE FINALLY WINDING DOWN FLASH FLOOD WISE...BUT FLASHIER
RIVER POITNS ARE STILL RESPONDING. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE OUT FOR
CHENANGO RIVER IN SHERBURNE...NORWICH...AND GREENE /WELL INTO
MODERATE CATEGORY EXPECTED FOR SHERBURNE/...AS WELL AS ONEIDA
CREEK AT ONEIDA AND TIOGHNIOGA RIVER AT CORTLAND. ALSO EXPECTING
SUSQUEHANNA AT WAVERLY-SAYRE TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME
TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED LEVELS PERSISTING BEYOND THEN. FLOOD WARNING
OUT FOR SUSQUEHANNA AT CONKLIN BUT FORECAST AT THIS TIME JUST
BARELY REACHES FLOOD STAGE AND TAKES UNTIL WEDNESDAY TO DO SO.
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY SO...THUS FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE LOW /THAT IS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAINFALL TO
CAUSE FLOODING/. SOME LOCATIONS ARE NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN INCH
IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THIS VERY MOIST
AIRMASS CAN PUT OUT 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WAS THUS EXTENDED THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY...WITH EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM HUMID AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF
I-95 AND UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95...
REST OF TODAY: FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE AREA AND UPSTREAM.
A SUBTLE VORTICITY LOBE IS CURRENTLY RIDING UP THROUGH THE NC
PIEDMONT (AS SHOWN QUITE WELL BY YESTERDAY`S MODELS)... HELPING TO
PROMPT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST COLUMN WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW VERY WELL THIS
AREA OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AS WELL AS THE
MORE DISCRETE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW OVER SOUTHEAST
NC POISED TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. WHILE AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 ARE PARTICULARLY UNDER THE GUN TODAY
GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE... AS LOW AS A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN SOME SPOTS... AND THE CONTINUED DEEP LCL-TO-0C LAYER AND
HIGH PW STILL FAVOR HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TODAY
WITH OBSERVED MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG... THE RAP DOES SHOW VALUES
REACHING 1000-2200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST) WITH 30 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND WITH CURRENT 0-1KM SRH NEAR 150-200 M2/S2
AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 20 KTS FEEDING INTO THE AREA... QUICK SPINUPS OF
WEAK TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. CURRENT TEMPS HAVE
TRENDED VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST HOURLY TEMPS SO FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO
FORECAST HIGHS OF 78-85. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN... CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT A PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR NORTHWARD AND INTO OUR REGION THIS MORNING... WITH THE HIGHEST
PW`S AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOIST AIR TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS... WITH THE 2+ INCH PW`S EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... WITH
AXIS OF 2+ INCH PW`S EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT/WESTERN
PIEDMONT COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY A BIT DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD... ALONG WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR ST LOUIS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AXIS OF
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AT BIT TODAY AND ESPECIALLY BY
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL... EXPECT
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF/TWO-THIRDS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEE FLASH
FLOODING. THUS... PLAN TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA (ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES... NEAR I-95) UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY.
WRT CURRENT SHOWERS AND STORMS... WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA (ESPECIALLY WEST) AS WE
GET CLOSER TO DAY BREAK AS ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE S/W LIFTS NORTHWARD
FROM GA/SC THIS MORNING. THEN SUBSEQUENT WEAK IMPULSES IN THE DEEP
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST...
ALONG WITH A BIT OF BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS MAY
POSSIBLY AIDE IN THE LIFT... VIA UPSLOPE FLOW (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT). IN ADDITION... TO MORE
OF AN ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM THE BACKED WINDS AND 30 TO 40
KT 925 MB WINDS.... EXPECT WE WILL HAVE A WEAK TORNADO THREAT AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT... AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 25
TO 40 KT RANGE... WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN THE 125 TO 175 M2/S2 AND LOW
LCL`S THANKS TO THE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS. THE ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK... WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
WHICH IS ABLE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MORE THAN 400-600 J/KG OF MLCAPE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/WESTERN PIEDMONT... WHERE THE 0-1 KM SRH IS
FAVORABLE. THUS... SPC HAS JUST ADDED A 2 PERCENT TOR THREAT TO THE
DAY 1 OUTLOOK. ANY TOR THREAT APPEARS TO BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS WELL... WITH LESS OF A THREAT ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HAMPERED GREATLY BY THE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST... WHERE WE MAY SEE A FEW MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. LOWS TONIGHT ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW MID 70S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 80-87 DEGREE RANGE FROM WEST TO
EAST... WITH AGAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS... ESPECIALLY
WEST. -BSD
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED BERMUDA HIGH. THIS
WILL AID TO PUSH MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FARTHER WEST INTO FAR WESTERN NC-EASTERN TN. WHILE
THE WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MOST PART...RESIDUAL MOISTURE
STILL PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE A MORE
NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WANING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF PARTIAL SUN...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN THE FAR
WEST THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL TREND. MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY LOW-MID 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY MID-UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO NC WITH THE CENTER OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE
PROJECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUN-MON. THIS PATTERN USUALLY
RESULTS IN HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS. WILL ADVERTISE SUCH A TREND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS NEAR 90-LOWER 90S EXPECTED SUNDAY-MONDAY. WHILE
TOP SOIL MOISTURE CAN HAVE AN IMPACT ON DAYTIME TEMPS...REVIEW OF
DAILY PRECIP AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN
CONCENTRATED IN POCKETS. THUS EXPECT ENOUGH DRYING TO OCCUR THU-SAT
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN-SANDHILLS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SOLIDLY REACH THE
LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CAPPING INVERSION ASSOCIATED
THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL LIMIT/INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STILL...WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL PROBABLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM TUESDAY...
IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION... ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH FASHION. EXPECT
THE CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER TODAY... MAYBE NOT EVEN REACHING
VFR AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU. WE SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE BEST COVERAGE TODAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LONG PERIODS OF
VCSH AND VCTS IN THE TAFS FROM THIS MORNING ONWARD. EXPECT LOCATIONS
THAT REACH VFR TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY FALL BACK
INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE MID TO LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY... WITH SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED EAST TO
WEST.
AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM EAST TO WEST STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR TO OUR EAST STARTS TO PUSH
WESTWARD INTO ERN/CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD
CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY... ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-078-089.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
631 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW IN MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWEST...WHILE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO CAROLINA COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ABUNDANT
MOISTURE HERE THROUGH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF AROUND 4 AM...RADAR SHOWING PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF
CWA...HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO MAINLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY IN SW VA. RAP SHOWS THIS
VORT MAX LIFTING THROUGH WV MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS SO
HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS WITH THAT. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WILL PICK UP WITH HEATING TODAY...HAVE LIKELY POPS MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSER THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ALSO
SEVERAL VORT MAXES LIFTING NORTH OUT OF NC AND VA. DEEPER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH REALLY STARTS BUILDING...SHOVING THE UPPER LOW BACK
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MAYBE A
BIT FASTER DOING THIS THAN THE GFS. NAM ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE VORT
MAXES WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH ACROSS THE WV MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...SO
REDEVELOPED LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. PWAT VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND 1.5 INCHES TODAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT AT BAY THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO
WATCH CONVECTION DEVELOP AND WATER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE IF IT
LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL HIT LOCALIZED LOWLAND AREAS THAT HAVE GOTTEN
A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. NAM THEN SHOWS THE
PWATS INCREASING TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLIDE IN...FORTUNATELY OUR MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES HAVE ALSO BEEN OUR DRIEST COUNTIES...WITH 3HR FFG OF 1.5 TO
2.5+ INCHES. DUE TO THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BUT CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO. AGAIN...WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW
THINGS DEVELOP AND PROGRESS WITH THE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS.
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMP FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IN THIS PATTERN...YOU DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO FANCY IN DETERMINING
EXACTLY WHEN REACH AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL THROUGH...
WHEN YOU ARE IN THE SHORT TERM...OR STILL 24 HOURS IN THE FUTURE AND
BEYOND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
RAIN HAS BEEN EFFICIENT EVEN WITH PW(S) OF 1.6 INCHES PAST FEW
DAYS. SO WE ARE CERTAINLY KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AGREEMENT ON VORT MAX AT 500 MB SLIDING NE OF CWA ALONG EASTERN
SLOPES WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO RAINS MAY DECREASE 12Z TO 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS THAT EXITS...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY.
00Z NAM TRIES TO PUSH THE NORTH/SOUTH AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN TO OUR
WEST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. EVEN IF THAT WAS THE CASE...HARD TO
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THAT AXIS...COME INDEPENDENCE DAY AFTERNOON. WILL IT STREAK DUE
NORTH...OR HAVE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT...BRINGING IT EAST...AND
DEEPER INTO OUR CWA.
TRIED TO LIMIT THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
ABUNDANT LAYERED CLOUDS.
THE ONLY GOOD FACTOR I CAN SEE...CONCERNING OUR FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...IS THAT THE 700 MB FLOW DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
BY THURSDAY...ABOUT 10 KNOTS FASTER THAN CURRENT FLOW.
DID INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY CRW TO
CKB ON THURSDAY...FIGURING ON A BIT MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COMPARED TO BOTH WEST AND EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH
THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...KEPT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...WITH MAINLY A DIURNAL
TREND. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS BY WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER
WESTWARD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS THAT FOG IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE...WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SUN COMES UP. AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO MIX AROUND...ANTICIPATE A BKN IFR DECK TO REMAIN AND
INCLUDED SOME TEMPOS FOR THAT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING...LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MORE
STRATUS TONIGHT...SO DID NOT GO QUITE AS DENSE ON THE FOG
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THAT WILL ALSO REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE RAIN
FALLS THIS EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSITY AND TIMING OF FOG/LOW CEILINGS MAY
VARY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED TEMPOS LATER
TODAY TO DEAL WITH CONVECTION.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO IFR IN LOWER
CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING POCAHONTAS COUNTY LATE
TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1011 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PICTURE
TODAY...WET...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77.
THE MORNING UPDATE REFLECTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE THOSE AREAS THAT
WILL EXPERIENCE CATEGORICAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND QPF NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT THE 12Z/8AM GUIDANCE FROM WPC.
HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 250 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OFF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO FADE SHRA THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE
LIFTING REMNANT SHRA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THUS
WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW LIKELY/CHANCE POPS MOST SPOTS ESPCLY
EASTERN HALF EARLY ON.
OTRW MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY...AND IN TURN HELPS PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS NEAR
THE COAST WESTWARD. MODELS ALSO SHOW AT LEAST SOME CHANNELED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PARALLEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TODAY. THIS LIFT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE TIME OF BEST HEATING...AND MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE CURRENT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG/EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A RATHER
STRONG UNDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP BANDS OR
STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN A TRAINING SETUP WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THIS IN COMBO WITH PWATS OF NEAR 2
INCHES COULD PROVIDE A VERY EFFICENT REGIME FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ESPCLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING ESPCLY IF MORE HEATING IS
REALIZED EARLY ON. GUIDANCE AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
MOST COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP PER HANDLING OF WAVES BUT AGREE A BIT
MORE ON HAVING MORE BANDING THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SUPPORTED
BY DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SUPPORTS
CAT/LIKELY POPS MOST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAIN MENTION SOUTH/EAST. STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN TO FLOOD
POTENTIAL PER HIGH FFG IN JULY AND ONLY POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THINK THREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EAST AND OVERNIGHT WEST FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MAV MOS GIVEN SUCH A WARM
START AND POSSIBLE BREAKS AT TIMES.
BANDS OF SHRA MAY AGAIN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
LINGERING AND UPPER FLOW STAYING PUT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
THE CHANNEL OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AIDED SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE
THE WATCH TO GO FARTHER NW BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY CAN LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTRW RUNNING WITH CAT TO LIKELY POPS WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS WEST. LOW TEMPS MAINLY MUGGY MID 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN BELT/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. UTILIZED HPCQPF FOR PLACEMENT
OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY....THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES ON THE HOLIDAY REMAIN IN THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN
STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET
MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S IN THE EAST...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE EAST. HIGHS COULD WARM INTO THE
MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RICH CLOUD COVER...WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF NOON EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN BUILDING
WWD THIS PERIOD AND PUTTING AN END TO THE WETTER PATTERN.
HOWEVER...IN ITS PLACE WILL BE A HOT...HUMID AIRMASS WITH THE DAILY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT IS TYPICAL
OF MOST SUMMERS AROUND HERE. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT WHILE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 80S MOUNTAINS TO
SOME 90S OUT EAST...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY...AS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE TRANSITION BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO LESS RAIN AND MORE
HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN STARTING TO PUSH BACK NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS ATTM WITH SOME OF THIS RAINFALL LIKELY TO
AFFECT MANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MOST SPOTS EXCLUDING
PERHAPS KLWB THIS MORNING WITH PERIODIC MVFR VSBYS IN A FEW OF
THE HEAVIER SHRA. ALSO A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AHEAD OF
THE SHRA EARLY ON ACROSS THE EAST...AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE CIGS REMAIN BELOW 1K FT.
ADDITIONAL CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS MAY EXPERIENCE OCNL
VFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SO
INCLUDING A VCTS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PREVAILING SHRA IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SE WVA SITES WHERE THINKING SHRA MAY END UP
LESS LATER ON.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG LIKELY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STALLED UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION. ALSO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BY A GENEROUS FLOW FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...WITH PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING CHANCES
OF A BROADER EXPANSE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GET ADVECTED WEST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO RETROGRADE. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONE
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING JET ALOFT COMBO WITH WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE REGION OF CONCERN IN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED AS A DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL TRAJECTORY STAYS PUT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE LOOKS TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SAW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT PWATS
DURING JULY WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL THREAT OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
RATE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ESPCLY IF
TRAINING IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY THAT WILL BE
NEEDED TO DRIVE THE DEEPER CONVECTION...AND WITH EXACTLY WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA MIGHT SET UP. THUS THINK BEST COURSE IS
TO FINALLY GO AHEAD IN HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CTYS INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT SRN
BLUE RIDGE WHERE GOT SOAKED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-022-
032>034-043-044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ035-045>047-058-
059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/KM
HYDROLOGY...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
701 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OFF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO FADE SHRA THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE
LIFTING REMNANT SHRA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THUS
WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW LIKELY/CHANCE POPS MOST SPOTS ESPCLY
EASTERN HALF EARLY ON.
OTRW MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY...AND IN TURN HELPS PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS NEAR
THE COAST WESTWARD. MODELS ALSO SHOW AT LEAST SOME CHANNELED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PARALLEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TODAY. THIS LIFT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE TIME OF BEST HEATING...AND MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE CURRENT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG/EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A RATHER
STRONG UNDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP BANDS OR
STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN A TRAINING SETUP WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THIS IN COMBO WITH PWATS OF NEAR 2
INCHES COULD PROVIDE A VERY EFFICENT REGIME FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ESPCLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING ESPCLY IF MORE HEATING IS
REALIZED EARLY ON. GUIDANCE AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
MOST COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP PER HANDLING OF WAVES BUT AGREE A BIT
MORE ON HAVING MORE BANDING THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SUPPORTED
BY DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SUPPORTS
CAT/LIKELY POPS MOST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAIN MENTION SOUTH/EAST. STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN TO FLOOD
POTENTIAL PER HIGH FFG IN JULY AND ONLY POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THINK THREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EAST AND OVERNIGHT WEST FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MAV MOS GIVEN SUCH A WARM
START AND POSSIBLE BREAKS AT TIMES.
BANDS OF SHRA MAY AGAIN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
LINGERING AND UPPER FLOW STAYING PUT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
THE CHANNEL OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AIDED SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE
THE WATCH TO GO FARTHER NW BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY CAN LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTRW RUNNING WITH CAT TO LIKELY POPS WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS WEST. LOW TEMPS MAINLY MUGGY MID 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN BELT/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. UTILIZED HPCQPF FOR PLACEMENT
OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY....THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES ON THE HOLIDAY REMAIN IN THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN
STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET
MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S IN THE EAST...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE EAST. HIGHS COULD WARM INTO THE
MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RICH CLOUD COVER...WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF NOON EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN BUILDING
WWD THIS PERIOD AND PUTTING AN END TO THE WETTER PATTERN.
HOWEVER...IN ITS PLACE WILL BE A HOT...HUMID AIRMASS WITH THE DAILY
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT IS TYPICAL
OF MOST SUMMERS AROUND HERE. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S PIEDMONT WHILE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 80S MOUNTAINS TO
SOME 90S OUT EAST...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY...AS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE TRANSITION BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO LESS RAIN AND MORE
HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN STARTING TO PUSH BACK NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS ATTM WITH SOME OF THIS RAINFALL LIKELY TO
AFFECT MANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MOST SPOTS EXCLUDING
PERHAPS KLWB THIS MORNING WITH PERIODIC MVFR VSBYS IN A FEW OF
THE HEAVIER SHRA. ALSO A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AHEAD OF
THE SHRA EARLY ON ACROSS THE EAST...AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE CIGS REMAIN BELOW 1K FT.
ADDITIONAL CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS MAY EXPERIENCE OCNL
VFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SO
INCLUDING A VCTS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PREVAILING SHRA IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SE WVA SITES WHERE THINKING SHRA MAY END UP
LESS LATER ON.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG LIKELY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STALLED UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION. ALSO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BY A GENEROUS FLOW FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...WITH PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING CHANCES
OF A BROADER EXPANSE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GET ADVECTED WEST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO RETROGRADE. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONE
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING JET ALOFT COMBO WITH WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE REGION OF CONCERN IN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED AS A DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL TRAJECTORY STAYS PUT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE LOOKS TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SAW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT PWATS
DURING JULY WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL THREAT OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
RATE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ESPCLY IF
TRAINING IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY THAT WILL BE
NEEDED TO DRIVE THE DEEPER CONVECTION...AND WITH EXACTLY WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA MIGHT SET UP. THUS THINK BEST COURSE IS
TO FINALLY GO AHEAD IN HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CTYS INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT SRN
BLUE RIDGE WHERE GOT SOAKED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-022-
032>034-043-044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ035-045>047-058-
059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/KM
HYDROLOGY...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR AN VERY ACTIVE EVENING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STORMS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK IN SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SPOT ON WHERE CONVECTION
WOULD BE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY AFTER 12 NOON SLOWLY PUSHED TO THE SSW
AND THEN WEAKENED. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
NM COUNTIES OF CATRON...CIBOLA AND MCKINLEY HAS ALSO BE SPOT ON BY
THE HRRR. 12Z WRF NAM/GFS ALONG WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE DEVELOPING
A LINE OF STORMS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL NM STORMS AND MERGING THEM
WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NAVAJO/APACHE COUNTIES. HRRR ALONG WITH 12Z UOFA WRF NAM AND GFS
RUNS ARE PUSHING A VERY STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OFF THE RIM AND
MOVING IT SSW ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WITH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
BLOWING DUST. MAY EVENTUALLY END UP WITH EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX. STAY TUNED.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.10"-1.30" RANGE FROM TUCSON
EAST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HAD
INITIALLY THOUGHT ABOUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN AREAS BUT HELD
OFF FOR NOW DUE TO FASTER MOVEMENT OF STORMS. MODELS SUGGESTING THAT
AFTER THE INITIAL SET OF STORMS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAY SEE
A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCE ALOFT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. IN COORDINATION
WITH AZ NWS OFFICES...HAVE UPPED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
REFLECT POSSIBILITY FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS.
WEDNESDAY ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. WITH EXPECTED
ACTIVE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HAVE GONE WITH IDEA OF DOWN
AFTERNOON PERIOD...THEN A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG UPPER HIGH...CENTERED NEAR BOISE THIS MORNING...WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEK WITH CENTER OF HIGH THE STATE ON THURSDAY
AND THEN BE EAST OF THE STATE BY THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP LOW END
MONSOON FORECAST GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...LIMITED CLOUDS THRU 23Z FEW-SCT100 SCT-BKN250 WITH LIGHT
N TO NW WIND. CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BECMG SCT-BKN080
BKN120 00Z-06Z. SCT TSTMS OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AT 21Z WILL
MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTH THRU 04Z. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG SOUTHERLY MOVING GUST FRONTS THIS EVENING. SKIES CLEARING
AFT 06Z BECMG FEW-SCT100 SCT250 BY 12Z. WIND BECMG NORMAL TERRAIN
DRIVEN AFT 06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS. CERNIGLIA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE RIM THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WITH THE INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET AND SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
SOUTHERLY MOVING GUST FRONTS. THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN THE 60-80% RANGE MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ISOLATED WEST
TO SCATTERED EAST MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT SHOULD SPREAD TO NEARBY VALLEY AREAS. STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE WET. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY GOOD
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. CERNIGLIA
&&
.CLIMATE...THE TRIPLE DIGIT STREAK HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TUCSON WHEN
THE AIRPORT HIT 100 DEGREES AT 2:07 PM MST. THIS IS TIED FOR THE
FIFTH LONGEST STREAK ON RECORD...TIED WITH 1942 /JUNE 13 TO JULY 14/.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
217 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT TODAY....RESULTING IN SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BY
WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR
WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A
GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING...
AS OF 1PM A WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS N TIER OF FCA...REST
OF FCA LOW STRATUS IS GIVING WAY TO BKN STRATO CU...WITH INCRG
BREAKS IN CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND
HAVE ADJUST A NOTCH UPWARD.
MORNING SOUNDING ONLY HAD A CAPE OF 359...BUT NO CIN. PWAT WAS
1.96 AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING MDL
CAPES INCRG TO 500-1500 J/KG. FAVORED AREAS ARE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF FCA.
ON BIG PICTURE EASTERN SEABOARD BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IN MISSISSIPPI VLY. TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDS FM CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE SEABOARD TO FCA. EXPECT TODAY`S
CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN SCT-BKN IN WM SECTOR AND ALONG AND WEST OF
WMFNT. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEST OF YSTDAY AS
SFC FRONT IS ALSO WEST. NAM/LOCAL WRF/GFS SUPPORT THIS...HWVR
YESTERDAYS WINNER THE HRRR HAS STORMS FIRING IN SAME PLACES AS
YSTDY...HOPEFULLY ITS THE OUTLIER. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
WRF IS PLACING THE CONVECTION BEST AND ITS WEST OF YSTDYS POSITIONS.
WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE AFTN. OTRW ACTIVITY IS SCT...AND A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NE FM EPA/NNJ AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF ALB. THESE ARE HANDLED BY LOCAL WFO
WRF ATTM WELL.
TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...-SHRA
ACTIVITY IS BCMG DIURNAL AND MOST TAPERS OFF DURING THE LATE
EVENING. OTHERWISE BERMUDA HIGH AT ALL LEVELS CONTINUES TO
RETROGRADE TWRD THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...AND
THE TROF RETROGRADES WESTWARD AS WELL. IN ADDITIONS THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND...AS THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
CHANGES...IT WILL DECREASE IN NW FCA TNGT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A
MUGGY AND VERY WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE WX REGIME OVER EASTERN NA AND BY EXTENSION
THE FCA...RETROGRADES WESTWARD. THE WMFNT MOVES FM OTTAWA VALLEY
AND E GRTLKS TO MI AND IN. AT 500HPA AND THE SFC THE BERMUDA HIGH
BACKS ONTO THE SEABOARD REACHING THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLC COAST.
HWVR THE ONE FEATURE THAT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION IS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. IT REMAINS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT ERODES WITH DRYING FM THE WEST WED AND WED NT. AND
THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD THU INTO FRI WITH THE REST OF THE PATTERN AS
ITS SOURCE BCMS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WITH RICH MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER FCA...AND BERMUDA HIGH PUMPING
HEAT INTO RGN...OUT WEATHER WILL SHIFT FROM MUGGY AND WARM WITH
FREQUENT -SHRA/SCT TSTMS TO VARIABLE SUN AND CLOUDS...MUGGY AND HOT
AS TEMPS TREND WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S. NIGHT TIME LOWS
WILL BE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MAINLY AFTN
TSTMS. CAPES WED WILL REACH 500-1500 J/KG...1000-2000 J/KG THU AND
1000-1500 FRI. HWVR 500HPA TEMPS WILL BE ARND -8C WED...-7C THU
AND -6C ALMOST CAPPED BY FRI.
THESE STORMS WILL BE FEWER IN COVERAGE...THEY WILL BE
STRONGER...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY PULES AND SUB SEVERE AS HGHTS ARE
RISING AND THE BULK OF THE JET DYNAMICS ARE WELL WEST OF FCA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AS IT RIDGES WESTWARD INTO THE CONUS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY /OR A BIT MORE ZONAL/ TO OPEN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK SFC TROUGHS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TIMED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SUSTAINED RELIEF FROM
THE MUGGY WEATHER PRIOR TO MONDAY...AS HAZY...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LESS THAN THIS PAST WEEK...BUT STILL NO FULLY DRY DAYS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL OF ERN AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE S/SW WITH
H850 TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS H850 TEMPS OF +17C TO
+19C WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO GET INTO M80S TO NEAR
90F IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. SFC
DEWPTS WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S TO L70S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1.50 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD SHRIVEL WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A STICKY NIGHT WILL SET UP WITH LOWS IN U50S TO L60S OVER THE
MTNS...AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70F IN THE VALLEYS.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH SAGS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH SOME MINOR
COLD ADVECTION AT H850 WITH TEMPS FALLING SLIGHTLY TO +16C TO +17C.
SOME VERY MINOR DRYING WILL KNOCK THE SFC DEWPTS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LOWER TO M60S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND PERHAPS U50S TO L60S
OVER THE NW ZONES. THE BETTER CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH AN ISOLD THREAT ELSEWHERE.
THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
TROUGH...BUT LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE SRN
DACKS TO U60S TO L70S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR FORECAST LEANS CLOSE TO THE HPC AND LATEST
ECMWF GUIDANCE HERE THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE W/NW
WITH STILL A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS...BUT THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT. THE GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD POP UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS IN THE +17C TO +19C RANGE WITH A WESTERLY
BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70F WILL BE COMMON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO APPROACH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT TODAY....RESULTING IN SHOWERS SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BY WEDNESDAY
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE
WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A
GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BKN025-045 OUTSIDE OF SCT-BKN SHRA AND TSTMS.
LOCALIZED MVFR/IN SHRA AND TSTMS INTO THE EVENING.
CONDS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY TO IFR/LIFR DURING THE EVENING IN AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 0 KTS...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TNGT.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...VFR/MVFR. SLIGHT CHC/CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS
END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
106 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT TODAY....RESULTING IN SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BY
WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR
WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A
GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING...
AS OF 1PM A WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS N TIER OF FCA...REST
OF FCA LOW STRATUS IS GIVING WAY TO BKN STRATO CU...WITH INCRG
BREAKS IN CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80...AND
HAVE ADJUST A NOTCH UPWARD.
MORNING SOUNDING ONLY HAD A CAPE OF 359...BUT NO CIN. PWAT WAS
1.96 AS IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING MDL
CAPES INCRG TO 500-1500 J/KG. FAVORED AREAS ARE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF FCA.
ON BIG PICTURE EASTERN SEABOARD BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IN MISSISSIPPI VLY. TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDS FM CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE SEABOARD TO FCA. EXPECT TODAY`S
CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN SCT-BKN IN WM SECTOR AND ALONG AND WEST OF
WMFNT. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEST OF YSTDAY AS
SFC FRONT IS ALSO WEST. NAM/LOCAL WRF/GFS SUPPORT THIS...HWVR
YESTERDAYS WINNER THE HRRR HAS STORMS FIRING IN SAME PLACES AS
YSTDY...HOPEFULLY ITS THE OUTLIER. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
WRF IS PLACING THE CONVECTION BEST AND ITS WEST OF YSTDYS POSITIONS.
WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE AFTN. OTRW ACTIVITY IS SCT...AND A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NE FM EPA/NNJ AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF ALB. THESE ARE HANDLED BY LOCAL WFO
WRF ATTM WELL.
TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...-SHRA
ACTIVITY IS BCMG DIURNAL AND MOST TAPERS OFF DURING THE LATE
EVENING. OTHERWISE BERMUDA HIGH AT ALL LEVELS CONTINUES TO
RETROGRADE TWRD THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...AND
THE TROF RETROGRADES WESTWARD AS WELL. IN ADDITIONS THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND...AS THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
CHANGES...IT WILL DECREASE IN NW FCA TNGT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A
MUGGY AND VERY WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WHICH HINGES ON HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR OUR EAST
WORKING WESTWARD AND PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO
QPF...ALTHOUGH PCPN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS ORGANIZED AS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY STARTS TO NOSE
BACK INTO FA ALTHOUGH FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACRS ERN GRTLKS RGN
AND IS CLOSE ENOUGH SUCH THAT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLY ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN AND WRN PTN OF FA
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ON THU AFT REACH 1000-2000
J/KG SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS PSBL ALTHOUGH DUE TO SLIGHT CHC
COVERAGE WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY
TO BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AS IT RIDGES WESTWARD INTO THE CONUS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY /OR A BIT MORE ZONAL/ TO OPEN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK SFC TROUGHS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TIMED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SUSTAINED RELIEF FROM
THE MUGGY WEATHER PRIOR TO MONDAY...AS HAZY...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LESS THAN THIS PAST WEEK...BUT STILL NO FULLY DRY DAYS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL OF ERN AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE S/SW WITH
H850 TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS H850 TEMPS OF +17C TO
+19C WITH SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO GET INTO M80S TO NEAR
90F IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. SFC
DEWPTS WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S TO L70S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1.50 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD SHRIVEL WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING...AND
A STICKY NIGHT WILL SET UP WITH LOWS IN U50S TO L60S OVER THE
MTNS...AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70F IN THE VALLEYS.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC TROUGH ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH SAGS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH SOME MINOR
COLD ADVECTION AT H850 WITH TEMPS FALLING SLIGHTLY TO +16C TO +17C.
SOME VERY MINOR DRYING WILL KNOCK THE SFC DEWPTS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LOWER TO M60S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND PERHAPS U50S TO L60S
OVER THE NW ZONES. THE BETTER CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH AN ISOLD THREAT ELSEWHERE.
THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
TROUGH...BUT LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE SRN
DACKS TO U60S TO L70S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OUR FORECAST LEANS CLOSE TO THE HPC AND LATEST
ECMWF GUIDANCE HERE THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE W/NW
WITH STILL A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS...BUT THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT. THE GRIDS ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD POP UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS IN THE +17C TO +19C RANGE WITH A WESTERLY
BREEZE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70F WILL BE COMMON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO APPROACH FROM
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT TODAY....RESULTING IN SHOWERS SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BY WEDNESDAY
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE
WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER
VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A
GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA WITH
CIGS GENERALLY BKN025-045 OUTSIDE OF SCT-BKN SHRA AND TSTMS.
LOCALIZED MVFR/IN SHRA AND TSTMS INTO THE EVENING.
CONDS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY TO IFR/LIFR DURING THE EVENING IN AREAS
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 0 KTS...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TNGT.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...VFR/MVFR. SLIGHT CHC/CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT THROUGH TODAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS
END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES TO APPROACH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE HRRR (AND LAST COSPA WE LOOKED AT) CONTINUES TO HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION. ITS ABOUT AN HOUR SLOW AND WE HAVE
USED THE SUBSEQUENT HOUR FOR THIS UPDATE. ITS EMPHASIS ON SERN CWA
IS HOLDING. RADAR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING FASTER FORWARD MOTION
THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS PLUS THE CURRENT SERN EMPHASIS IN
GENERAL IS PASSING OVER LOCALES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN AS HARD HIT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. SO IN THE NEAR TERM WE HAVE UPPED THE POPS SE
AND LOWERED THEM NW BEFORE SEGUEING TOWARD THE LATTER AREA LATER
THIS EVENING.
THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST...COURTESY OF A STAGNANT MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. POP-UP SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A VORT MAX MOVES NORTH
FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES STILL OVER 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WHEREVER
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THEN AFTER THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES OUT...VERY HUMID
AIR COUPLED WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED TO POPULATE TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BUILDING THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHOWERS
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MORNING...AND THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...A TREND TO LOWER POPS WILL
COMMENCE. ANY MORNING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MID-MORNING
HOURS AND THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM EARLIER THINKING WITH REGARDS TO
THE LONGER TERM PART OF THE FCST. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
ATLANTIC THAT HAS PUMPED THE WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE
PAST WEEK WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST. WE WILL KEEP THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE...SO EXCEPT FOR SCT
AFTERNOON TSTMS...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE. POPS IN THE
CURRENT FCST WERE NOT CHANGED DRASTICALLY FROM EARLIER FCST...SINCE
THEY LOOKED GOOD WITH RESPECT TO THE MORE RECENT 12Z MODEL RUNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM THU RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
MODERATE TO HIGH...SO WE MAY EVENTUALLY REACH LEVELS WHERE HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BECOME NECESSARY...PROBABLY THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE
SOME MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW CONCERNING THE HEAT.
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE...FAVORING THE WEST/NORTHWEST ZONES. PCPN IN THOSE AREAS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE...WHILE POPS FURTHER SOUTH/EAST WILL
EITHER BE DRY OR SLGT CHC.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CIGS WERE IN THE VFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S...A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING NORTH FROM VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...MVFR CONDITIONS (OR
WORSE) ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED
AT ALL OUR TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT MAY NEED
TO MAKE LAST MINUTE CHANGES BASED ON WHERE THE PRECIPITATION
ACTUALLY TRACKS. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...AND A WEAK WIND...FOG IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS IN THE LONGER TERM WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORT PERIODS OF SUB-SVR
DURING THE TSTMS. PATCHY A.M. FOG MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS TOO.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY 009 HAVE NOW DROPPED BELOW 5 FEET. THE SCA HAS
THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED SOUTH OF CAPE MAY...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT
ALONG THE NJ COAST WHERE SEAS ARE STILL 5 FEET PLUS. ALTHOUGH THE
SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10Z WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD
IT CAN BE DROPPED EARLIER THAN THAT. S TO SWLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. ONCE THE SEAS DROP BELOW 5 FEET TONIGHT...NO
FLAGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE
INTO THE LONG TERM. SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS/SEAS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATE SENT FOR ISOLD CONVECTION WITHIN ACCAS FIELD OVER WESTERN
CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF VORT MAX NEAR CHARLES CITY SAGGING SSW
TOWARD MARSHALLTOWN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED WITH
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON IN CORRIDOR FROM WEST OF DUBUQUE TO
WASHINGTON. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH ISOLD COVERAGE BUT THE
MORE RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SUGGEST COULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP UP HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS
BY 2-4 DEGS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. FAR EAST AND PORTIONS OF WEST
THAT SEE CLOUDS MAY BE HELD DOWN INTO THE MID 70S.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW HAD MOVED
FROM WESTERN KY TO SOUTHERN IL SINCE EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NE THROUGH NORTHERN MN
WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN IL UPPER LOW WAS MOVING WEST THROUGH
CENTRAL AND AND NORTHEASTERN IL. ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF
-SHRA/-TSRA AS MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHRA/TSRA WERE OCCURRING JUST A HEAD OF A SMALL
VORT CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST MN PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
WITH THE UPPER LOW BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE HOLDING
ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD TODAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE
OR ELEVATED CAPE OVER THIS AREA THIS MORNING BUT CAPES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE RIVER. SO MOST OF THE PRECIP EAST TODAY
SHOULD BE SHRA WITH ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE RIVER. SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALSO INTRODUCED OVER THE
NW TODAY. THE SMALL CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...THE NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE CAPES AROUND 1500J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS READINGS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
KEEPING HIGHS EAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
TONIGHT KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHRA SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED
TO BE OVER THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MINS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS BUT STILL IN THE MID OR UPPER
50S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK THEN TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY AND 4TH OF JULY...WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE DVN
CWA BUT THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY/VERTICAL MOTION TO
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FOR THE 4TH OF JULY THERE
SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS/FILLS
EVEN FURTHER. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PLEASANT FOR EARLY
JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 75 TO 80.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA ALLOWING FOR A ZONAL FLOW TO
RETURN ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...A CHUNK OF THE
ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE MIDWEST. THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A MORE TYPICAL EARLY JULY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS RISING WELL
INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD ALSO BE A DRY FEW
DAYS WITH LACK OF A TRIGGER...AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY INTO THE CWA. AN
UPPER LOW ALSO LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY MID WEEK A DEEPENING NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
DRIVE THE COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BACK INTO THE DVN CWA.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY MAINLY WEST/SOUTHWEST OF KCID THIS
AFTN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN IOWA BY WED AFTN SPREADING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS... WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY STAYING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM N/NE 5-10 KTS THIS AFTN THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TNGT THROUGH WED IN WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
155 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2013
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed quickly this
afternoon as character of clouds changed quickly to cumuliform. No
real changes from previous thoughts below, and no major changes to
forecast in near term at this time. With some drier air aloft on
morning soundings and as shown in water vapor imagery, isolated
stronger cells could produce some hail and wind gusts of 30 to 40
mph this afternoon, before storms weaken by early evening.
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
Upper low continues to spin over southern IL this morning, with the
most persistent rain just north and west of the center. To the east
of the center over our forecast area, water vapor imagery shows a
relative dry slot aloft. This tops ample low-level moisture as
evidenced by abundant low clouds this morning, and OHX and ILN 12z
soundings showing low-level moisture. As expected, the low
stratiform clouds are not beginning to dissipate leaving more
cumuliform clouds over central KY. Temperatures have been slow to
warm this morning under the low clouds, but now should rise nicely
through the afternoon into the lower 80s in many locations (except
near 80 in parts of south-central IN).
Main forecast challenge is location and coverage of any afternoon
convection. Water vapor imagery also showed a weakening subtle
shortwave roughly near Memphis which could promote cell growth on
the eastern periphery of the upper low. This would mean western/
west-central KY (our western forecast area) might have a slightly
better chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Also,
better moisture influx and diurnal heating over eastern KY and our
eastern forecast area should promote cell growth in that area, which
is supported by recent runs of the HRRR and local WRF models.
In-between over central KY, there may be a relatively minimum of
convective cells this afternoon. Nevertheless, given the synoptic
set-up and at least some destabilization this afternoon, at least
isolated convection is still expected, especially where local cloud
boundaries set up to promote mesoscale forcing. Activity should wane
later this evening as the boundary layer again stabilizes.
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
A quick update this morning to account for latest cloud, precip, and
fog trends. Morning visible data shows a good deal of low clouds
over forecast area, especially northern and western two-thirds of
central KY and south-central IN. Fog also remains prevalent at some
locations, although visibilities will improve through the rest of
the morning. Expect low stratus clouds to eventually scour out to
some degree late this morning and early afternoon, as cumulus clouds
begin to take their place. Currently, no precip is in our forecast
area, but isolated to scattered cells are expected this afternoon as
daytime heating and instability increase, as detailed in short term
discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through tonight)...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
With the upper-level low just off to our west-northwest, central KY
and southern IN are currently in a relative dry slot. Thanks to an
abundance of rainfall in some locations over the past few days,
though, low-level moisture is abundant, and areas of fog and low
stratus have been drifting over several AWOS/ASOS sites, with
visibilities dropping below a mile at times. The low clouds and fog
will persist into mid morning, hindering a rise in temperatures in
those locations until late morning. By that time, diurnal heating in
the areas that had been clear will initiate cumulus development,
which will help slow down rising temperatures in those areas.
Thanks to the nearby upper-level low and the high low-level RH, a
few of the cumulus should grow into thunderstorms, though with the
low inching away to the NNW, we look to stay in the relative dry
slot for the most part, so areal coverage should not be nearly as
high as the past few days. While most will therefore not see rain,
the atmospheric conditions for heavy rains - albeit isolated - still
prevail, so a very few locations could see significant amounts,
while most remain dry. For now, both the models and current
satellite trends indicate the best location for thunder to be along
the I-75 corridor in the eastern part of our forecast area, but as
has been the case the past few days, a lingering boundary or subtle
perturbation elsewhere could generate a soaker elsewhere.
With all of the moisture and clouds around, highs today will remain
5-10 degrees below seasonal norms, ranging from the mid 70s in
locations seeing little sunshine to the lower 80s in those spots
with less clouds. Lows tonight should dip back into the 60s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
...Unsettled weather pattern continues for much of the Ohio Valley...
The mid-level reflection of our large low pressure system will be
positioned across Missouri and Iowa Wednesday, while both east and
west coasts of the CONUS will be under high pressure. The
upper-level low is forecast to retrograde, lift northward and get
swept up in the westerlies through the weekend. As this occurs,
Bermuda high pressure sitting across the eastern CONUS will shift
west and have more of an influence on our forecast area.
With the upper-level low still controlling our weather Wednesday,
diurnal clouds and convection are expected. However, guidance is
starting to show some activity late Wednesday night and again
Thursday mainly for locations along and east of I-65 as a few vort
maxes round the western side of the Bermuda high and interact with
an axis of lower-level moisture from the Gulf. As the high builds
further west, this moisture axis will also shift west and much of
the forecast area will experience a good amount of convection Friday
and into Friday night. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it
is not going to be a total washout through the period but several
rounds of convection will move through, providing most locations
with rainfall. Once again, locally heavy rainfall will be the main
concern with th convective activity Wednesday through Friday night.
From Saturday through Monday, the Bermuda high will strengthen it`s
grip in the Ohio Valley, with temperatures and moisture continuing
to increase. As heights aloft increase, we should see a decrease in
afternoon and evening convective coverage. However, should still
experience scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early
evening hours, as there will be plenty of moisture and limited
afternoon capping. Not seeing much in the way of a trigger other
than differential heating boundaries and outflow from any convection
that does fire. Localized heavy rainfall would be the main threat
with any convection that does develop.
As for temperatures, highs Wednesday should top out in the lower
80s. Expect temperatures Thursday and Friday to remain on the cool
side for this time of year, as clouds hold strong and waves of
showers/storms track across the region. Middle 70s to lower 80s are
expected at this time. From Saturday through Monday, the Bermuda
high should be more of an influence on our weather, which will send
temperatures into the low and middle 80s Saturday, and middle to
upper 80s by Monday. Overnight lows will show a similar trend, with
lower to middle 60s Wednesday night giving way to upper 60s and
lower 70s by Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
Scattered to broken clouds (mainly VFR) cover the forecast area at
this time, east of upper low over southern IL. Isolated thunder-
storms have begun developing in central KY, and isolated to
scattered storms will continue this afternoon before weakening this
evening. Conditions should remain VFR this afternoon and evening,
briefly (less than an hour) going MVFR and possibly IFR if strong
storms pass over a TAF site. After storms weaken tonight, low-to-mid
clouds will remain but generally VFR will prevail. Overnight, with
ample low-level moisture in place, lower clouds and areas of fog
will likely develop again (similar to this morning), with at least
MVFR conditions expected at BWG and LEX after 08 or 09z. Will keep
SDF VFR but MVFR fog is possible at times near daybreak. Models also
depict a surge of moisture heading north into eastern half of
Kentucky by Wednesday morning, continuing northward from there. This
should result in scattered convection at LEX and SDF in particular
in latter portion of valid TAF forecast period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........TWF
Short Term.......JBS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........TWF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
130 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2013
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
Upper low continues to spin over southern IL this morning, with the
most persistent rain just north and west of the center. To the east
of the center over our forecast area, water vapor imagery shows a
relative dry slot aloft. This tops ample low-level moisture as
evidenced by abundant low clouds this morning, and OHX and ILN 12z
soundings showing low-level moisture. As expected, the low
stratiform clouds are not beginning to dissipate leaving more
cumuliform clouds over central KY. Temperatures have been slow to
warm this morning under the low clouds, but now should rise nicely
through the afternoon into the lower 80s in many locations (except
near 80 in parts of south-central IN).
Main forecast challenge is location and coverage of any afternoon
convection. Water vapor imagery also showed a weakening subtle
shortwave roughly near Memphis which could promote cell growth on
the eastern periphery of the upper low. This would mean western/
west-central KY (our western forecast area) might have a slightly
better chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Also,
better moisture influx and diurnal heating over eastern KY and our
eastern forecast area should promote cell growth in that area, which
is supported by recent runs of the HRRR and local WRF models.
In-between over central KY, there may be a relatively minimum of
convective cells this afternoon. Nevertheless, given the synoptic
set-up and at least some destabilization this afternoon, at least
isolated convection is still expected, especially where local cloud
boundaries set up to promote mesoscale forcing. Activity should wane
later this evening as the boundary layer again stabilizes.
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
A quick update this morning to account for latest cloud, precip, and
fog trends. Morning visible data shows a good deal of low clouds
over forecast area, especially northern and western two-thirds of
central KY and south-central IN. Fog also remains prevalent at some
locations, although visibilities will improve through the rest of
the morning. Expect low stratus clouds to eventually scour out to
some degree late this morning and early afternoon, as cumulus clouds
begin to take their place. Currently, no precip is in our forecast
area, but isolated to scattered cells are expected this afternoon as
daytime heating and instability increase, as detailed in short term
discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through tonight)...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
With the upper-level low just off to our west-northwest, central KY
and southern IN are currently in a relative dry slot. Thanks to an
abundance of rainfall in some locations over the past few days,
though, low-level moisture is abundant, and areas of fog and low
stratus have been drifting over several AWOS/ASOS sites, with
visibilities dropping below a mile at times. The low clouds and fog
will persist into mid morning, hindering a rise in temperatures in
those locations until late morning. By that time, diurnal heating in
the areas that had been clear will initiate cumulus development,
which will help slow down rising temperatures in those areas.
Thanks to the nearby upper-level low and the high low-level RH, a
few of the cumulus should grow into thunderstorms, though with the
low inching away to the NNW, we look to stay in the relative dry
slot for the most part, so areal coverage should not be nearly as
high as the past few days. While most will therefore not see rain,
the atmospheric conditions for heavy rains - albeit isolated - still
prevail, so a very few locations could see significant amounts,
while most remain dry. For now, both the models and current
satellite trends indicate the best location for thunder to be along
the I-75 corridor in the eastern part of our forecast area, but as
has been the case the past few days, a lingering boundary or subtle
perturbation elsewhere could generate a soaker elsewhere.
With all of the moisture and clouds around, highs today will remain
5-10 degrees below seasonal norms, ranging from the mid 70s in
locations seeing little sunshine to the lower 80s in those spots
with less clouds. Lows tonight should dip back into the 60s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
...Unsettled weather pattern continues for much of the Ohio Valley...
The mid-level reflection of our large low pressure system will be
positioned across Missouri and Iowa Wednesday, while both east and
west coasts of the CONUS will be under high pressure. The
upper-level low is forecast to retrograde, lift northward and get
swept up in the westerlies through the weekend. As this occurs,
Bermuda high pressure sitting across the eastern CONUS will shift
west and have more of an influence on our forecast area.
With the upper-level low still controlling our weather Wednesday,
diurnal clouds and convection are expected. However, guidance is
starting to show some activity late Wednesday night and again
Thursday mainly for locations along and east of I-65 as a few vort
maxes round the western side of the Bermuda high and interact with
an axis of lower-level moisture from the Gulf. As the high builds
further west, this moisture axis will also shift west and much of
the forecast area will experience a good amount of convection Friday
and into Friday night. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it
is not going to be a total washout through the period but several
rounds of convection will move through, providing most locations
with rainfall. Once again, locally heavy rainfall will be the main
concern with th convective activity Wednesday through Friday night.
From Saturday through Monday, the Bermuda high will strengthen it`s
grip in the Ohio Valley, with temperatures and moisture continuing
to increase. As heights aloft increase, we should see a decrease in
afternoon and evening convective coverage. However, should still
experience scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early
evening hours, as there will be plenty of moisture and limited
afternoon capping. Not seeing much in the way of a trigger other
than differential heating boundaries and outflow from any convection
that does fire. Localized heavy rainfall would be the main threat
with any convection that does develop.
As for temperatures, highs Wednesday should top out in the lower
80s. Expect temperatures Thursday and Friday to remain on the cool
side for this time of year, as clouds hold strong and waves of
showers/storms track across the region. Middle 70s to lower 80s are
expected at this time. From Saturday through Monday, the Bermuda
high should be more of an influence on our weather, which will send
temperatures into the low and middle 80s Saturday, and middle to
upper 80s by Monday. Overnight lows will show a similar trend, with
lower to middle 60s Wednesday night giving way to upper 60s and
lower 70s by Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2013
Scattered to broken clouds (mainly VFR) cover the forecast area at
this time, east of upper low over southern IL. Isolated thunder-
storms have begun developing in central KY, and isolated to
scattered storms will continue this afternoon before weakening this
evening. Conditions should remain VFR this afternoon and evening,
briefly (less than an hour) going MVFR and possibly IFR if strong
storms pass over a TAF site. After storms weaken tonight, low-to-mid
clouds will remain but generally VFR will prevail. Overnight, with
ample low-level moisture in place, lower clouds and areas of fog
will likely develop again (similar to this morning), with at least
MVFR conditions expected at BWG and LEX after 08 or 09z. Will keep
SDF VFR but MVFR fog is possible at times near daybreak. Models also
depict a surge of moisture heading north into eastern half of
Kentucky by Wednesday morning, continuing northward from there. This
should result in scattered convection at LEX and SDF in particular
in latter portion of valid TAF forecast period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$
Update...........TWF
Short Term.......JBS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........TWF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE PESKY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS AFFECTED THE REGION OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN THE AREA. IT WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...AND BRING AN AREA OF RAINFALL IN
WITH IT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A LOW CHANCE WILL REMAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. EXPECTING A BRIEF LULL IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
HRRR DOING PRETTY WELL WITH THE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
STRETCHING FROM SAUGATUCK UP TO CENTRAL LOWER. IR SATELLITE AND
HRRR BOTH SUPPORT LULL IN PCPN WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AFTER
THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH. HRRR PULSES UP ACTIVITY AT 19-20Z. NAM
AND RAP BOTH FOCUS INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE PAINTS A PESSIMISTIC PICTURE POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON SUN. TEMPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED DOWN MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF GRAND RAPIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN TRENDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND ALSO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WED.
CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING HIGH THIS MORNING THAT ROUGHLY THE SE THIRD
TO HALF OF THE CWFA WILL SEE RAINFALL OCCUR TODAY. RAINFALL IS
EXPANDING NICELY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALMA TO
KALAMAZOO. THIS IS RESULTING FROM SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE THAT IS HEADING TOWARD DETROIT. WE ARE
SEEING SOME OF THE DEFORMATION OCCURRING ON THE NW PORTION OF THIS
WAVE. THE BEST RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDS ON ACROSS THE SE BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT LATER AS IT
PUSHES N AND NW.
WE EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO KEEP EXPANDING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE SHEARS
A
BIT AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHES. EVEN AS THIS HAPPENS...WE
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO POSSIBLE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH
THE UPPER LOW/MID LEVEL COLD POOL ROTATING CLOSER TO THE AREA.
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT
STABLE FOR THE TIME BEING. WE DO EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY TO BUILD
SOUTH OF I-96 THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTS
JUST NORTH AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD OPEN UP.
WE WILL SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH A BIT IN COVERAGE AS THE
INITIAL WAVE SHEARS OUT AND AS WE LOSE OUR DIURNAL BOOST TO THE
INSTABILITY. PCPN CHCS WILL NOT TOTALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WE
WILL SEE WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE IN FROM THE SSW AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS DUE TO
THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL NEARBY.
THESE SHORT WAVES COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT.
WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON WED COMPARED TO
TODAY...BUT RAINFALL IN GENERAL WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD. WE WILL
SEE THE SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 80 WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S BUILD ML CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE LOW ITSELF AND POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZES COULD BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WED. WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
WEST...WE WILL SEE BETTER MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO. IF WE CAN SEE
MORE SUN TO BUILD THE INSTABILITY MORE...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WED AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT
AREA OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. FCST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PLACE.
THE BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES WILL SHIFT MORE EAST FOR THE DAY ON
THU. BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVES STAYING EAST
WILL FOCUS THE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR ERN SECTION OF THE CWFA AND
EAST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE WAY FOR SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN. THAT IS... WARM AND HUMID WITH THE RISK OF A LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARMTH CONTINUES MONDAY WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH? JUST
HOW QUICKLY DOES IT GET REPLACED BY THE EXPANDING WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (BERMUDA HIGH)? TYPICALLY THE MODELS DISSIPATE
THESE FEATURES TO QUICKLY AND LIKELY THAT WILL BE THE CASE THIS
WEEKEND.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IS COLD FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM THAT SHEARS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM
WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PUT SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN IN THE RING OF FIRE FOR CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD START EXTENDED WET PERIOD FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
BUT THIS TIME IT WILL BE WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID WITH THE FRONT
LARGELY STALLING JUST NORTH OF HERE.
AS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND OUR WARMING TREND IN OUR DAILY
TEMPERATURES... THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE DISSIPATING UPPER TROUGH
(WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES) AND INCOMING PACIFIC STORM (SHEARED OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM) PUTS SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN IN A DEEP...WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING
BERMUDA HIGH. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
CONUS BEING SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. BASICALLY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BRING
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (LIKELY OUR
FORECAST HIGHS ARE TO CONSERVATIVE). WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND OF THE COAST... AND DEW POINTS IN THE
60S... ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY BUT THE RISK IN ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE RATHER LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP AREA WIDE BUT
CONFIDENCE WASN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAFS. WE/LL LIKELY SEE
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS AND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE HYDROLOGY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FOCUSED ON THE HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. BASIN
AVERAGES SHOULD BE UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND WE WILL SEE POSSIBLE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN. EVENTUALLY
THE PCPN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ON WED AND THU...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THOSE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EBW
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A
BETTER FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
WETTING RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER HIGH MEANDERS BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND OVER ARIZONA AND BELT OF STRONGER UPPER WINDS LINGERS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. RUC INDICATES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
WILL BE FAVORED LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER GUSTY EAST WIND LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN ABQ METRO THIS
EVENING. THE SURFACE GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE RUC INDICATES THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED WEST TOWARDS THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT...AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTDVD TO
GUP AND FMN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD REPEAT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO RESULT IN SLOWER STORM MOTION AND PERHAPS A BIT OF DRYING.
A TREND TOWARDS WARMER HIGHS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND STILL
STANDS AS THE HIGH CENTER BECOMES LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO. DON/T SEE
A MECHANISM TO TOTALLY DRY US OUT SO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOCATIONS. IN FACT
THE ECMWF INDICATES A SETUP FOR THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD IMPORT SOME
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION AND RESULT IN BETTER
THAN GENERIC CONVECTION. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE HIGH WILL BE
WITH US INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
OT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER HIGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
ARIZONA. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A
NORTH/NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS. WETTING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE FOOTPRINT OF A
TENTH OF AN INCH WOULD BE THE SMALLEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR
SO. THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME A BIT LIGHTER THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD
REMAIN A CONCERN. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD. THIS IS WHERE TEEN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE FOUND AT
TIMES DURING LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PLACING THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS DOESNT LOOK TO BE AN ESPECIALLY STRONG UPPER
HIGH SO A CAPPING INVERSION IN TERMS OF AFFECTING STORM POTENTIAL IS
NOT EXPECTED. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOME DURING THIS PERIOD THUS ALLOWING FOR OTHER AREAS WITHIN
MOUNTAIN RANGES TO BE FAVORED VERSUS WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RECYCLED MOISTURE PERIOD. THIS
MEANS THE WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT FOR STORMS WOULD REDUCE SOME AS THE
OVERALL ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT DRIER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BECOME A BIT WARMER. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS AND THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED WITH THE STORMS. WESTERN AREAS
COULD SEE LONGER PERIODS OF LOW HUMIDITY AS TIME GOES ON UNDER THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...ESPECIALLY THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. SOME WESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD RETURN BUT NOT REAL STRONG. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THIS PERIOD
ALTHOUGH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT INDICATE THAT SORT OF INFLUENCE
AT THIS TIME.
MODELS INDICATE SOME SORT OF UPPER HIGH INFLUENCE INTO NEXT WEEK AND
SUSPECT THAT THE RECYCLING OF MOISTURE WOULD CONTINUE IN THE FORM OR
ISOLD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS. CANT HANG
MY HAT ON ANY ONE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTRUSION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM AT THIS TIME BUT SUSPECT A BACK DOOR WILL DO THAT. MODELS
SHOW SOME SORT OF BACK DOOR OR HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE SURGE TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT AS TIME GOES ON. TIMING OF
THAT WOULD MOST LIKELY ADJUST SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT EVENT
PERIOD.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
FASTER MOVING SH/TS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE
COVERAGE VERSUS WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY AS FAR AS IMPACTS TO
TERMINAL SITES. HAVE VCTS OR SH MENTIONED AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL
SITES. HAVE TEMPO SH/TS AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL SITES EXCEPT FOR
FMN. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME BLDU WILL BE
POSSIBLE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SITES. WETTER STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THAT COULD BRING MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...CANT RULE OUT SOME LONGER
DURATION RAINFALL AND MVFR CIGS AT LVS AND PERHAPS EVEN ROW BASED
ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 64 94 63 94 / 20 20 20 20
DULCE........................... 49 84 49 86 / 30 30 30 30
CUBA............................ 52 82 51 84 / 40 40 40 30
GALLUP.......................... 63 91 59 91 / 30 20 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 55 87 54 85 / 30 30 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 58 87 56 88 / 30 20 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 58 88 56 88 / 40 30 30 30
GLENWOOD........................ 59 92 59 92 / 30 30 40 20
CHAMA........................... 46 80 47 81 / 30 40 40 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 80 54 81 / 40 40 40 30
PECOS........................... 50 74 50 75 / 50 50 40 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 78 51 78 / 50 40 40 30
RED RIVER....................... 45 72 45 71 / 50 50 50 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 72 45 74 / 50 60 50 40
TAOS............................ 54 80 52 83 / 50 30 40 30
MORA............................ 50 74 49 75 / 50 50 50 40
ESPANOLA........................ 51 84 52 86 / 50 30 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 52 80 54 81 / 50 30 30 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 83 56 84 / 40 30 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 84 61 87 / 40 30 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 86 65 88 / 30 20 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 87 60 90 / 30 20 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 87 61 91 / 30 20 30 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 87 63 89 / 30 20 30 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 86 63 90 / 30 20 30 20
SOCORRO......................... 65 88 64 92 / 40 30 30 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 82 59 86 / 40 30 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 59 83 60 86 / 40 30 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 80 53 82 / 50 30 30 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 77 53 80 / 50 40 40 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 78 55 81 / 50 40 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 79 60 83 / 60 40 40 30
RUIDOSO......................... 51 73 53 76 / 60 50 40 40
CAPULIN......................... 50 78 50 79 / 30 30 30 20
RATON........................... 53 80 52 83 / 30 30 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 52 79 51 82 / 30 30 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 76 50 78 / 50 40 30 30
CLAYTON......................... 57 83 57 85 / 20 30 20 10
ROY............................. 56 80 56 82 / 30 30 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 60 83 60 87 / 30 30 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 84 60 87 / 30 30 30 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 86 62 89 / 20 20 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 60 82 59 85 / 20 20 20 10
PORTALES........................ 60 83 60 85 / 20 20 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 60 83 60 87 / 30 30 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 65 86 64 90 / 40 20 20 10
PICACHO......................... 57 79 57 83 / 50 40 40 30
ELK............................. 53 74 54 78 / 50 40 40 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
150 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 930 AM... SAME PATTERN AS LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES IN
PLACE... WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST AROUND THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER SUBTLE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE FROM DAY TO DAY
WHICH WILL MAKE BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE ACTUAL WEATHER. ONE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY APPEARS TO BE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE HEATING POTENTIAL TODAY WITH
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALREADY SHOWING SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING IN
THE OVERCAST. BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN MODEL CAPE FORECASTS
WITH THE NAM/GFS ONLY INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG. BASED ON
ALREADY SEEING SOME BREAKS AND CURRENT SPC ANALYSIS ALREADY
INDICATING 500 J/KG OVER NE PA EXPECT THAT SOME PLACES WILL AT
LEAST REACH 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME STRONG
CONVECTION WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30
KTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION WITH MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE STORM THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
LTL MVMT OF THE OVERALL PTRN IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE SLY FLOW
CONTG. DFCLT TO LOCATE AND FOLLOW SHRT WVS WILL CONT TO TRIGGER
PATCHES OF SHWRS AND HEAVY. SO...XPCT CONTD WARM TOPPED CONV AND
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKES WHERE 30 TO 40 DBZ SHWRS PRODUCE AN INCH OF
RAIN IN AN HOUR. PWATS CONT WELL ABV NRML APRCHG 2 INCHES AND LTL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAKES FOR THE RISK OF CONTD TRAINING CELLS.
WEAK WV SEEMS TO BE POISED TO PASS NEAR PK HTG SO XPCT INCRSD
SHWR/TRW ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN. SEE NO REASON TO CHG THE CRNT FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE ANTICIPATED PCPN WITH WET GND CONDS AND RVR LVLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RDG OFF THE ATLANTIC CST EDGES WWRD THRU THE PD. THIS PUSHES A
SIGNIFICANT WV MVG NWRD IN THE FLOW WWRD AND SOMEWHAT WEAKENS
IT...LDG TO LESS PCPN FOR THE FCST AREA. STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONV BUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC UNDER THE
BLDG...LESS CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINS.
DRIER AIR REALLY BECOMES APRNT ON THU AS DEEP MOISTURE IS BACK
OVER OH AND RDGG BLDS INTO NY. STILL ENUF INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE
POPS THU AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES MADE.
4 PM UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MORE OF THE SAME INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO
SW FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SLOWLY SHIFTS TO ZONAL FROM THE DEEP MIDWEST TROF. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LONG TERM GOES ON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. MORE FLOODING LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE... SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DVLP ATTM...AND ARE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...INTO THE EARLY EVE. FOR NOW...WE`VE KEPT RESTRICTIONS IN
THE MVFR CAT...AND WE`LL INSERT THUNDER ON AN AS NEEDED BASIS.
IT APPEARS THAT AN AREA OF STEADIER RAINFALL WILL APPROACH FROM
THE S AND SW BY THIS EVE...AND PROLONG RESTRICTIONS AT KBGM/KAVP
THROUGH 06-08Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR...OR PERIODIC MVFR (IN LIGHT BR/HZ)
SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVE.
LTR TNT INTO EARLY WED...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CLDS/FOG
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. AFTER 14-15Z...ALTHOUGH HIT AND MISS
SHRA/TSRA MAY RE-FIRE...WE`LL INDICATE A PREVAILING VFR GROUP FOR
NOW.
.OUTLOOK...THU THROUGH SUN...
AT LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED EACH AFTN/EVE...WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS PSBL. ALSO...EARLY EACH AM...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
LWR CLDS/FOG ARE FORESEEN. OTHWS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1045 AM DISCUSSION
TROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BROUGHT BANDS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION YESTERDAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST AXES GENERALLY IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. POCKETS OF 3
TO 4 INCHES CAUSED HAVOC IN SEVERAL OF THE SUSQUEHANNA TRIBUTARIES
WITH RAPID RISE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HEADWATERS AT CORTLAND ON THE TIOUGHNIOGA...ALONG
WITH SHERBURNE AND NORWICH ON THE CHENANGO RAPIDLY ROSE TO MODERATE
MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS. THIS MORNING...5 LOCATIONS REMAIN UNDER FLOOD
WARNINGS AS THE WATER SLOWLY RECEDES ON THE HEADWATER TRIBS...AND
SURGES INTO THE MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA IN NEW YORK. GENERALLY MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS ARE FORECAST FROM CONKLIN TO WAVERLY.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE...RAINFALL FORECASTS UP TO AN INCH IN THE
NEXT 72 HOURS THAT WERE INJECTED INTO THE HYDRAULIC MODELS DO NOT
SUGGEST ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE RIVER LEVELS WITH ANY NEW
FLOODING. ATMOSPHERIC MODELS SUGGEST A DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET AND INFLUX OF HIGH PWAT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS LENDS TO A RATHER TENUOUS FORECAST SITUATION...AS WE WILL
REMAIN WITHIN A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE
BOUNDARIES AND AREAS TO FOCUS NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AT THIS
POINT...I WOULD EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR CHANGES TO RIVER
FORECAST LEVELS AT POINTS YET TO BE DETERMINED SHOULD HEAVY SW-NE
ORIENTED BANDING AND TRAINING OF CELLS DEVELOP. THIS IS PRIMARILY
A CONCERN FOR THE TRIBUTARIES...BUT EVEN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MAIN STEMS COULD RESPOND TO HEAVY RAIN IN A QUICK MANNER.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...MLJ
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM HUMID AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM GENERALLY EAST OF
I-95 AND UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95...
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE SEMI-ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS (SOME SHOWING BROAD AND FLEETING ROTATIONAL
SIGNATURES)... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION... HAS
SHIFTED SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE CWA... AND IS CURRENTLY PUSHING JUST
EAST OF CENTRAL NC. PRECIP TAPERS OFF WEST OF THIS LINE TO LIGHTER
AND MORE PATCHY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BUT
THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID
EVENING... SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY STREAKING
NORTHWARD FROM FL/ERN GA/SC INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-30 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS REPLICATE THIS EVOLUTION
QUITE WELL AND DEPICT NEARLY SOLID COVERAGE OF RAIN/STORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING. MODELS SHOW A BROAD AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT...
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY LOBE TRACKS NORTH THEN NW OVER
THE NW PIEDMONT INTO THE FOOTHILLS TONIGHT... ATTENDING A 30-35 KT
SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT 1200-2000 J/KG FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE SLIPPING TO THE 800-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVERNIGHT. WHILE LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK... AND WE MAY NOT
NECESSARILY SEE INSTABILITY RECOVERING TO LEVELS INDICATED BY THE
MODELS... THE DECENT 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF
20-30 KTS SUGGEST THAT WE MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPINUP OF A WEAK
TORNADO OR TWO PARTICULARLY NEAR ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES. THE DYNAMICS AND KINEMATIC FIELDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT...
GIVING SUPPORT TO HRRR TRENDS OF DECREASING RAIN/STORM COVERAGE LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
EARLY TONIGHT... TRENDING DOWN TO CHANCE SOUTH TO NORTH. REGARDING
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH... THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH IS DUE TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM... AND THIS LOOKS GOOD AS THE STRONG OFFSHORE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THE
START OF THE WESTWARD PUSH OF THE HIGH-PW AXIS INTO THE WRN PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS. WILL HOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS IS... AS THIS
AREA HAS BEEN INUNDATED WITH RAIN IN RECENT DAYS -- AS MUCH AS 3-5
TIMES THE NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE LAST WEEK -- AND FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE REMAIN QUITE LOW... MOSTLY FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH IN AN
HOUR... AND CERTAINLY THE ACTIVITY NOW MOVING INTO OUR SOUTH IS
CAPABLE OF THESE RAIN RATES. ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES IS EXPECTED. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WITH LOWS...
69-74. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...
WILL FINALLY SEE OUR LONG-AWAITED TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FROM
EAST TO WEST... AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD PUSH
INTO NC. THIS WILL PUSH THE HIGH-PW AXIS AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL
VORTICITY LOBES JUST WEST OF OUR AREA... WITH SLOWLY DECREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. BUT WITH THE PW VALUES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
WRN CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... WE SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING HERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR WESTERN SECTIONS UNTIL 8
PM... AND CONSIDERING THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE... ANY HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING SHOWER COULD
CAUSE STREET FLOODING OR WORSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MID
LEVELS STEADILY DRYING AND WARMING... INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WANING
AS THE PW VALUES FALL LATE IN THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST OF LIKELY
POPS WEST AND JUST CHANCES EAST LOOK GOOD AND WILL MAKE JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BUT OTHERWISE WILL LOWER POPS TO JUST LOW CHANCES
IN THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 80-86 AND LOWS
69-73. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...THOUGH THE RIDGE DOES
START TO BUILD WEST FROM OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ANY CAP IS
WEAK...AND RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEAKEST
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER. IN THE
MEAN...CERTAINLY ON THE GFS...THE AIR MASS APPEARS POSSIBLY A LITTLE
DRIER ON THURSDAY AS OPPOSED TO FRIDAY. IN FACT...ON THE GFS...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON THE GFS
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 1.8 INCHES FRIDAY. EACH DAY A FAIRLY DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...AND FOR THIS FORECAST BOTH DAYS WILL HAVE
ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...MAINLY
DIURNALLY...WITH HIGHER CHANCES WEST OF U.S. 1 AS COMPARED TO OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A BETTER LOW-LEVEL
CAP EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
ARE CLOSE AND BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
AND IF THE AIR MASS ENDS UP BEING A LITTLE MORE MOIST FRIDAY THE
HIGHS FRIDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
ON SATURDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD FURTHER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST...BRINGING
DRIER...SUNNIER CONDITIONS...WITH CALM WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS STRONGER WESTWARD...
EXPECT SIMILAR DRY CONDITIONS...WITH AGAIN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURE EACH DAY INTO THE LOWER 90S DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVELY
MORE STAGNANT FLOW...AND LOW-PROBABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH
DAY. FOR THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SUNDAY CLOSER TO ANY REMAINING MOISTURE...THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE
CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
TUESDAY...GFS AND THE EURO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OR WEAKEN...POSSIBLY ALLOWING MORE
MOISTURE MOVEMENT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT...BUT INCREASING CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE THE FORECAST DRY
ON THE SEVENTH DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO
INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD THE TREND
BE THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR THREE OF 70 ON AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES HAVE SEEN MVFR CIGS COME AND GO IN RECENT
HOURS... VARYING FROM SCT TO BKN... AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM SC ACROSS
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z... AND MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
AND PERIODS OF DOWNPOURS WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES. COVERAGE WILL LOWER AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AFTER 02Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... AND WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS... BUT WE SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO/RDU. CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR TO IFR AT INT/GSO
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MIX OUT TO VFR AT RDU/FAY/RWI BY
16Z. EXPECT STEADY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SE AND SOUTH AT SPEEDS OF
8-12 KTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING INT/GSO
WILL LOWER COVERAGE/IMPACT EXPECTED AT RDU/FAY/RWI. MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 03Z THU (WED EVENING) THROUGH DAYBREAK
THU. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID EVENING... WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH
DAY... BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR STRATUS EACH NIGHT FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING AT ALL SITES. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-078-089.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BAS/DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM HUMID AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY GENERALLY
EAST OF I-95 AND UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95...
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE SEMI-ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS (SOME SHOWING BROAD AND FLEETING ROTATIONAL
SIGNATURES)... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION... HAS
SHIFTED SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE CWA... AND IS CURRENTLY PUSHING JUST
EAST OF CENTRAL NC. PRECIP TAPERS OFF WEST OF THIS LINE TO LIGHTER
AND MORE PATCHY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BUT
THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID
EVENING... SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY STREAKING
NORTHWARD FROM FL/ERN GA/SC INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-30 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS REPLICATE THIS EVOLUTION
QUITE WELL AND DEPICT NEARLY SOLID COVERAGE OF RAIN/STORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING. MODELS SHOW A BROAD AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT...
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY LOBE TRACKS NORTH THEN NW OVER
THE NW PIEDMONT INTO THE FOOTHILLS TONIGHT... ATTENDING A 30-35 KT
SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT 1200-2000 J/KG FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE SLIPPING TO THE 800-1200 J/KG RANGE
OVERNIGHT. WHILE LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK... AND WE MAY NOT
NECESSARILY SEE INSTABILITY RECOVERING TO LEVELS INDICATED BY THE
MODELS... THE DECENT 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF
20-30 KTS SUGGEST THAT WE MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPINUP OF A WEAK
TORNADO OR TWO PARTICULARLY NEAR ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES. THE DYNAMICS AND KINEMATIC FIELDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT...
GIVING SUPPORT TO HRRR TRENDS OF DECREASING RAIN/STORM COVERAGE LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
EARLY TONIGHT... TRENDING DOWN TO CHANCE SOUTH TO NORTH. REGARDING
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH... THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH IS DUE TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM... AND THIS LOOKS GOOD AS THE STRONG OFFSHORE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THE
START OF THE WESTWARD PUSH OF THE HIGH-PW AXIS INTO THE WRN PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS. WILL HOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS IS... AS THIS
AREA HAS BEEN INUNDATED WITH RAIN IN RECENT DAYS -- AS MUCH AS 3-5
TIMES THE NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE LAST WEEK -- AND FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE REMAIN QUITE LOW... MOSTLY FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH IN AN
HOUR... AND CERTAINLY THE ACTIVITY NOW MOVING INTO OUR SOUTH IS
CAPABLE OF THESE RAIN RATES. ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
AND A HALF INCHES IS EXPECTED. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE WITH LOWS...
69-74. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL AID TO PUSH MOISTURE PLUME
INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA FARTHER WEST
INTO FAR WESTERN NC-EASTERN TN. WHILE THE WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER
AIR IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MOST PART...RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL PLENTIFUL
ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT.
WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WANING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF PARTIAL SUN...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN THE FAR
WEST THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL TREND. MAX TEMPS
LOW-MID 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...THOUGH THE RIDGE DOES
START TO BUILD WEST FROM OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ANY CAP IS
WEAK...AND RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEAKEST
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER. IN THE
MEAN...CERTAINLY ON THE GFS...THE AIR MASS APPEARS POSSIBLY A LITTLE
DRIER ON THURSDAY AS OPPOSED TO FRIDAY. IN FACT...ON THE GFS...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON THE GFS
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 1.8 INCHES FRIDAY. EACH DAY A FAIRLY DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...AND FOR THIS FORECAST BOTH DAYS WILL HAVE
ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...MAINLY
DIURNALLY...WITH HIGHER CHANCES WEST OF U.S. 1 AS COMPARED TO OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A BETTER LOW-LEVEL
CAP EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
ARE CLOSE AND BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
AND IF THE AIR MASS ENDS UP BEING A LITTLE MORE MOIST FRIDAY THE
HIGHS FRIDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
ON SATURDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD FURTHER INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST...BRINGING
DRIER...SUNNIER CONDITIONS...WITH CALM WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES...NEAR 90 ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS STRONGER WESTWARD...
EXPECT SIMILAR DRY CONDITIONS...WITH AGAIN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURE EACH DAY INTO THE LOWER 90S DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVELY
MORE STAGNANT FLOW...AND LOW-PROBABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH
DAY. FOR THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SUNDAY CLOSER TO ANY REMAINING MOISTURE...THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE
CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
TUESDAY...GFS AND THE EURO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OR WEAKEN...POSSIBLY ALLOWING MORE
MOISTURE MOVEMENT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT...BUT INCREASING CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE THE FORECAST DRY
ON THE SEVENTH DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO
INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD THE TREND
BE THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR THREE OF 70 ON AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES HAVE SEEN MVFR CIGS COME AND GO IN RECENT
HOURS... VARYING FROM SCT TO BKN... AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM SC ACROSS
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z... AND MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
AND PERIODS OF DOWNPOURS WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES. COVERAGE WILL LOWER AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AFTER 02Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... AND WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS... BUT WE SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO/RDU. CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR TO IFR AT INT/GSO
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MIX OUT TO VFR AT RDU/FAY/RWI BY
16Z. EXPECT STEADY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SE AND SOUTH AT SPEEDS OF
8-12 KTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING INT/GSO
WILL LOWER COVERAGE/IMPACT EXPECTED AT RDU/FAY/RWI. MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 03Z THU (WED EVENING) THROUGH DAYBREAK
THU. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID EVENING... WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH
DAY... BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR STRATUS EACH NIGHT FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING AT ALL SITES. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-078-089.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BAS/DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM HUMID AIR MASS AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF
I-95 AND UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95...
REST OF TODAY: FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE AREA AND UPSTREAM.
A SUBTLE VORTICITY LOBE IS CURRENTLY RIDING UP THROUGH THE NC
PIEDMONT (AS SHOWN QUITE WELL BY YESTERDAY`S MODELS)... HELPING TO
PROMPT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST COLUMN WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW VERY WELL THIS
AREA OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AS WELL AS THE
MORE DISCRETE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW OVER SOUTHEAST
NC POISED TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. WHILE AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 1 ARE PARTICULARLY UNDER THE GUN TODAY
GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE... AS LOW AS A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN SOME SPOTS... AND THE CONTINUED DEEP LCL-TO-0C LAYER AND
HIGH PW STILL FAVOR HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL TODAY
WITH OBSERVED MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG... THE RAP DOES SHOW VALUES
REACHING 1000-2200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON (HIGHEST EAST) WITH 30 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND WITH CURRENT 0-1KM SRH NEAR 150-200 M2/S2
AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 20 KTS FEEDING INTO THE AREA... QUICK SPINUPS OF
WEAK TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. CURRENT TEMPS HAVE
TRENDED VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST HOURLY TEMPS SO FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO
FORECAST HIGHS OF 78-85. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN... CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT A PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR NORTHWARD AND INTO OUR REGION THIS MORNING... WITH THE HIGHEST
PW`S AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOIST AIR TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS... WITH THE 2+ INCH PW`S EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... WITH
AXIS OF 2+ INCH PW`S EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT/WESTERN
PIEDMONT COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY A BIT DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD... ALONG WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR ST LOUIS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AXIS OF
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AT BIT TODAY AND ESPECIALLY BY
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL... EXPECT
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF/TWO-THIRDS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEE FLASH
FLOODING. THUS... PLAN TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA (ALL BUT THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES... NEAR I-95) UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY.
WRT CURRENT SHOWERS AND STORMS... WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA (ESPECIALLY WEST) AS WE
GET CLOSER TO DAY BREAK AS ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE S/W LIFTS NORTHWARD
FROM GA/SC THIS MORNING. THEN SUBSEQUENT WEAK IMPULSES IN THE DEEP
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST...
ALONG WITH A BIT OF BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS MAY
POSSIBLY AIDE IN THE LIFT... VIA UPSLOPE FLOW (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT). IN ADDITION... TO MORE
OF AN ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM THE BACKED WINDS AND 30 TO 40
KT 925 MB WINDS.... EXPECT WE WILL HAVE A WEAK TORNADO THREAT AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT... AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 25
TO 40 KT RANGE... WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN THE 125 TO 175 M2/S2 AND LOW
LCL`S THANKS TO THE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS. THE ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK... WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
WHICH IS ABLE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE MORE THAN 400-600 J/KG OF MLCAPE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/WESTERN PIEDMONT... WHERE THE 0-1 KM SRH IS
FAVORABLE. THUS... SPC HAS JUST ADDED A 2 PERCENT TOR THREAT TO THE
DAY 1 OUTLOOK. ANY TOR THREAT APPEARS TO BE BEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS WELL... WITH LESS OF A THREAT ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HAMPERED GREATLY BY THE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST... WHERE WE MAY SEE A FEW MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. LOWS TONIGHT ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW MID 70S
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 80-87 DEGREE RANGE FROM WEST TO
EAST... WITH AGAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS... ESPECIALLY
WEST. -BSD
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED BERMUDA HIGH. THIS
WILL AID TO PUSH MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FARTHER WEST INTO FAR WESTERN NC-EASTERN TN. WHILE
THE WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MOST PART...RESIDUAL MOISTURE
STILL PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE A MORE
NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WANING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF PARTIAL SUN...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN THE FAR
WEST THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL TREND. MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY LOW-MID 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY MID-UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO NC WITH THE CENTER OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE
PROJECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUN-MON. THIS PATTERN USUALLY
RESULTS IN HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS. WILL ADVERTISE SUCH A TREND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS NEAR 90-LOWER 90S EXPECTED SUNDAY-MONDAY. WHILE
TOP SOIL MOISTURE CAN HAVE AN IMPACT ON DAYTIME TEMPS...REVIEW OF
DAILY PRECIP AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN
CONCENTRATED IN POCKETS. THUS EXPECT ENOUGH DRYING TO OCCUR THU-SAT
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN-SANDHILLS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SOLIDLY REACH THE
LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. CAPPING INVERSION ASSOCIATED
THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL LIMIT/INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STILL...WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL PROBABLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES HAVE SEEN MVFR CIGS COME AND GO IN RECENT
HOURS... VARYING FROM SCT TO BKN... AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM SC ACROSS
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z... AND MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS
AND PERIODS OF DOWNPOURS WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES. COVERAGE WILL LOWER AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AFTER 02Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... AND WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS... BUT WE SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO/RDU. CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR TO IFR AT INT/GSO
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MIX OUT TO VFR AT RDU/FAY/RWI BY
16Z. EXPECT STEADY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SE AND SOUTH AT SPEEDS OF
8-12 KTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING INT/GSO
WILL LOWER COVERAGE/IMPACT EXPECTED AT RDU/FAY/RWI. MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 03Z THU (WED EVENING) THROUGH DAYBREAK
THU. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID EVENING... WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH
DAY... BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR STRATUS EACH NIGHT FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING AT ALL SITES. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-078-089.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
405 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT...DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
AND LEAD TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STAGNANT PATTERN OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST SHOULD CHANGE LATE THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY SLIDE TO THE WEST AND HELP TO REDUCE THE NUMBER
OF SHOWERS WHICH FORM EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE
NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NW ZONES...UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSRA HAS GRADUALLY BLOSSOMED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z
BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND DEVELOP IN MOST PLACES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
THE LATEST 09Z SREF/12Z GEFS FOCUSES AN AREA OF STRONG 925-850 MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS +4SD SWWRLY
LL JET.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE /AND FOR EXAMPLE IT/S 1000-850 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ MIGRATES HOURLY TO NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO ANY PLACE IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS UNDER THE GUN FOR TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED TSRA.
MOST PLACES WILL SEE BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TONIGHT ANYWHERE BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.75 OF AN INCH. IT`S THE FEW LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE SOME
TRAINING LOW-TOPPED/HIGHLY EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WHERE A QUICK
1.5-2 INCHES COULD FALL BRINGING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE LOWEST FFG VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SCENT COUNTIES - MAINLY S
OF THE TURNPIKE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE WRN MTNS. CAPES HAVE CLIMBED
TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG THANKS TO SOME CURRENT...AND EARLIER
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITHIN THE
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
STRONG MICROBURST WINDS...GIVING THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT.
THE OTHER FACET TO THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
WILL BE THE LOW LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVELS...AND UNUSUALLY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS SSWRLY LLJ OF 40 KTS
/APPROX +4SD/ NOSING INTO SCENT PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS LLVL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS EVEN A WEAK...BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WHERE
STRONGER CELLS TRAVEL NE AND OVER LLVL BOUNDARIES. BEST EHI VALUES
ARE OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA AND PEAK AROUND 2 M2/S2.
THE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHCS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
MAINLY DUE TO LACK OF HEATING. 12Z NAM/09Z SREF DOES INDICATE
ANOTHER WAVE RIPPLING QUICKLY NWD INTO THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL MTNS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE FOCUSED
SHRA/TSRA...BUT WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS TO COME IN BEFORE
JUMPING ON THAT LOWER PROBABILITY NOCTURNAL EVENTS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE REMAINS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FFA INTO
WED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE THREAT AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOULD SHIFT SOMEWHAT TO THE NW
ON WED...AS THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TWD ERN
SEABOARD...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND
FILL BY A FEW DECAMETERS. THE PWAT MAX-AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD ON
WED. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AVERAGING 75 PERCENT OR MORE WILL LIMIT
PRECIP IN THE MORNING TO MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS.
CAPE AGAIN THREATENS TO ECLIPSE 1000 BUT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE GET...AND HOW
NUMEROUS THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA BECOME.
HODOGRAPH IS STILL FAIRLY WELL-CURVED AND THE OVERALL WIND PROFILE
IS A BIT STRONGER ON WED. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID REMAINS THE RULE...MUST BE SUMMERTIME. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE MIDWEST UPR
TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA
HIGH INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE
CONVECTIVELY DIURNALLY INTO LATE WEEK.
IT REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP MENTION IN HWO...AND HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR THE
CWA.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL BRING SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR AND BRIEF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS
THEY DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NNE.
ANY CLEARING TONIGHT IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH WET GROUND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WED.
THE WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU MID-WEEK...AS RELATIVELY
STRONG DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW /ORIGINATING IN THE CARIBBEAN/
CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS NWD MSTR FLUX ALONG THE APPLCHNS
INTO CNTRL PA...BTWN THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING MID MS VLY TROUGH AND
WRN ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THIS VERY MOIST AND HUMID
PATTERN...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND TSRA WITH LOCALLY +RA.
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS TO WILL UTILIZE
VCSH/VCTS FOR THE MOST PART.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...IFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
VFR/MVFR LATE MORNING/AFTN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ006-011-
012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT...DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP WARM...MOIST AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
AND LEAD TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT-TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STAGNANT PATTERN OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST SHOULD CHANGE LATE THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY SLIDE TO THE WEST AND HELP TO REDUCE THE NUMBER
OF SHOWERS WHICH FORM EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE
NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NW ZONES...UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSRA HAS GRADUALLY BLOSSOMED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z
BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND DEVELOP IN MOST PLACES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
THE LATEST 09Z SREF/12Z GEFS FOCUSES AN AREA OF STRONG 925-850 MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS +4SD SWWRLY
LL JET.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE /AND FOR EXAMPLE IT/S 1000-850 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ MIGRATES HOURLY TO NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO ANY PLACE IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS UNDER THE GUN FOR TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED TSRA.
MOST PLACES WILL SEE BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TONIGHT ANYWHERE BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.75 OF AN INCH. IT`S THE FEW LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE SOME
TRAINING LOW-TOPPED/HIGHLY EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WHERE A QUICK
1.5-2 INCHES COULD FALL BRINGING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE LOWEST FFG VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SCENT COUNTIES - MAINLY S
OF THE TURNPIKE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE WRN MTNS. CAPES HAVE CLIMBED
TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG THANKS TO SOME CURRENT...AND EARLIER
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITHIN THE
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
STRONG MICROBURST WINDS...GIVING THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT.
THE OTHER FACET TO THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
WILL BE THE LOW LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVELS...AND UNUSUALLY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS SSWRLY LLJ OF 40 KTS
/APPROX +4SD/ NOSING INTO SCENT PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS LLVL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS EVEN A WEAK...BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WHERE
STRONGER CELLS TRAVEL NE AND OVER LLVL BOUNDARIES. BEST EHI VALUES
ARE OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA AND PEAK AROUND 2 M2/S2.
THE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHCS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
MAINLY DUE TO LACK OF HEATING. 12Z NAM/09Z SREF DOES INDICATE
ANOTHER WAVE RIPPLING QUICKLY NWD INTO THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL MTNS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE FOCUSED
SHRA/TSRA...BUT WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS TO COME IN BEFORE
JUMPING ON THAT LOWER PROBABILITY NOCTURNAL EVENTS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE REMAINS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FFA INTO
WED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
THE THREAT AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOULD SHIFT SOMEWHAT TO THE NW
ON WED...AS THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TWD ERN
SEABOARD...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND
FILL BY A FEW DECAMETERS. THE PWAT MAX-AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD ON
WED. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND LOWER 80S IN THE SE.
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AVERAGING 75 PERCENT OR MORE WILL LIMIT
PRECIP IN THE MORNING TO MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS.
CAPE AGAIN THREATENS TO ECLIPSE 1000 BUT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE GET...AND HOW
NUMEROUS THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA BECOME.
HODOGRAPH IS STILL FAIRLY WELL-CURVED AND THE OVERALL WIND PROFILE
IS A BIT STRONGER ON WED. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE AGAIN...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION
OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
IT REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP MENTION IN HWO...AND HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR THE
CWA.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL BRING SOME TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR AND BRIEF IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS
THEY DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NNE.
ANY CLEARING TONIGHT IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH WET GROUND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WED.
THE WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU MID-WEEK...AS RELATIVELY
STRONG DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW /ORIGINATING IN THE CARIBBEAN/
CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS NWD MSTR FLUX ALONG THE APPLCHNS
INTO CNTRL PA...BTWN THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING MID MS VLY TROUGH AND
WRN ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THIS VERY MOIST AND HUMID
PATTERN...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND TSRA WITH LOCALLY +RA.
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS TO WILL UTILIZE
VCSH/VCTS FOR THE MOST PART.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...IFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
VFR/MVFR LATE MORNING/AFTN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ006-011-
012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1210 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
KEEP WARM...MOIST AIR IN PLACE AND LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STAGNANT PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA TO THE WEST AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST
SHOULD CHANGE LATE THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY SLIDE TO THE WEST AND HELP TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS
WHICH FORM EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE NORMALS
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH /PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT/
UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST TODAY IS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE AS PWATS OF
BETTER THAN 2 INCHES RESIDE OVER THE SERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE
STATE. AREAS OF LIFT WILL BE JUST AS DIFFICULT TO PLACE TODAY AS
THEY HAVE BEEN THESE LAST FEW DAYS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE /AND FOR
EXAMPLE IT/S 1000-850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ MIGRATES HOURLY TO
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
ANY PLACE IN THE WATCH IS UNDER THE GUN FOR TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS
AND LOW-TOPPED TSRA.
QPF FCSTS FROM WPC AND RFCS PLACE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
SERN HALF OF THE AREA....WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND.
THE LOWEST FFG VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SCENT COUNTIES - MAINLY S
OF THE TURNPIKE. CAPES WILL ALSO BE A QUESTION MARK IN THE
FORECAST FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. IF THE SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH LONG
ENOUGH...THE CAPES CAN EASILY CLIMB OVER 1200 J/KG. BUT THE DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REALIZE THAT HEATING...ESP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. STILL WORTH A MENTION IN THE HWO
THOUGH.
THE OTHER FACET TO THE HIGHEST LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
WILL BE THE LOW LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVELS...AND UNUSUALLY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS SSWRLY LLJ OF 40 KTS
/APPROX +4SD/ NOSING INTO SCENT PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS LLVL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS EVEN A WEAK...BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WHERE
STRONGER CELLS TRAVEL NE AND OVER LLVL BOUNDARIES. BEST EHI VALUES
ARE OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA AND PEAK AROUND 2 M2/S2.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND WILL
REDUCE POPS TO CHCS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING. AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO THINK ABOUT EXTENDING THE FFA INTO THE
NEXT DAY. BUT WILL NOT MOVE ON THAT THOUGHT JUST YET. THE THREAT
SHOULD SHIFT SOMEWHAT TO THE NW ON WED...AS ALMOST EVERYTHING SHIFTS
TO THE WEST. ATLANTIC RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST...AND
UPPER LOW INCHES WEST AND GIVES HINTS OF FILLING JUST A FEW
DECAMETERS. THE PWAT MAX-AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD ON WED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED WITHOUT MUCH OF A SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY...AND
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND SCT/NMRS TS/SHRA. CAPE AGAIN THREATENS TO
ECLIPSE 1000 BUT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN
JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE GET. HODOGRAPH STILL FAIRLY WELL- CURVED AND
OVER WIND PROFILE A BIT FASTER ON WED. THUS...SEVERE WEATHER A BIT
MORE POSSIBLE WED THAN TUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONCE AGAIN...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION
OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
IT REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP MENTION IN HWO...AND HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR THE
CWA.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS..LOOK FOR CIGS/VIS TO IMPROVE INTO THE
AFTN HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...ALSO EXPECT AREAL CVRG OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO INCREASE WITH TIME. BRIEF...IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL
BE CONCENTRATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY CLEARING TONIGHT IN THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH WET GROUND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WED.
THE WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU MID-WEEK...AS RELATIVELY
STRONG DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW /ORIGINATING IN THE CARIBBEAN/
CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS NWD MSTR FLUX ALONG THE APPLCHNS
INTO CNTRL PA...BTWN THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING MID MS VLY TROUGH AND
WRN ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THIS VERY MOIST AND HUMID
PATTERN...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND TSRA WITH LOCALLY +RA.
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS TO WILL UTILIZE
VCSH/VCTS FOR THE MOST PART.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...IFR/MVFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
VFR/MVFR LATE MORNING/AFTN WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
204 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME
DEGREE OF LESS ORGANIZATION...AND MORE INDIVIDUAL HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF RAIN. IN THE WEST...THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION...AND GAPS HAVE EXISTED IN THE OVERCAST FOR A FEW
HOURS. THIS WESTERN REGION WILL BE AREA TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE. NO CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION. THE CONCERN STILL
REMAINS TRAINING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED GENEROUS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. HAVE
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PICTURE
TODAY...WET...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77.
THE MORNING UPDATE REFLECTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE THOSE AREAS THAT
WILL EXPERIENCE CATEGORICAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND QPF NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT THE 12Z/8AM GUIDANCE FROM WPC.
HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 250 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OFF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO FADE SHRA THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE
LIFTING REMNANT SHRA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THUS
WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW LIKELY/CHANCE POPS MOST SPOTS ESPCLY
EASTERN HALF EARLY ON.
OTRW MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY...AND IN TURN HELPS PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS NEAR
THE COAST WESTWARD. MODELS ALSO SHOW AT LEAST SOME CHANNELED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PARALLEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TODAY. THIS LIFT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE TIME OF BEST HEATING...AND MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE CURRENT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG/EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A RATHER
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP BANDS
OR STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN A TRAINING SETUP WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THIS IN COMBO WITH PWATS OF NEAR 2
INCHES COULD PROVIDE A VERY EFFICIENT REGIME FOR TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ESPCLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING ESPCLY IF MORE
HEATING IS REALIZED EARLY ON. GUIDANCE AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH
EXACTLY WHERE THE MOST COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP PER HANDLING OF WAVES
BUT AGREE A BIT MORE ON HAVING MORE BANDING THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS SUPPORTED BY DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS SUPPORTS CAT/LIKELY POPS MOST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTION SOUTH/EAST. STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN TO FLOOD POTENTIAL PER HIGH FFG IN JULY AND ONLY POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THINK THREAT
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL MIDNIGHT EAST AND OVERNIGHT
WEST FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM FLOODING. KEPT TEMPS ON
THE WARM SIDE OF MAV MOS GIVEN SUCH A WARM START AND POSSIBLE
BREAKS AT TIMES.
BANDS OF SHRA MAY AGAIN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
LINGERING AND UPPER FLOW STAYING PUT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
THE CHANNEL OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AIDED SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE
THE WATCH TO GO FARTHER NW BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY CAN LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTRW RUNNING WITH CAT TO LIKELY POPS WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS WEST. LOW TEMPS MAINLY MUGGY MID 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN BELT/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. UTILIZED HPCQPF FOR PLACEMENT
OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY....THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES ON THE HOLIDAY REMAIN IN THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN
STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET
MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S IN THE EAST...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE EAST. HIGHS COULD WARM INTO THE
MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RICH CLOUD COVER...WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE A DRYING BUT HEATING TREND THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS WWD INTO AND OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY. FRI NIGHT...THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL START TO SHIFT WEST AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION ALTHOUGH
THE WRN CWA APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE EDGE...SO POPS INTO SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE WEST TO LITTLE CHANCE IN THE EAST.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 594 RIDGE.
ASIDE FROM SOME HEAT OF THE DAY/EARLY EVENING STORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
BE REACHING THE 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE ROANOKE
AND SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY...
WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WESTERN SECTIONS HAVE HAD MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER AND LESS PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE GAPS IN
THE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING AND WE EXPECT
INCREASED COVERAGE IN THIS ARE AS MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL
PROGRESSION WESTWARD AS THE CENTER OF THE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. WE EXPECT EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA TO HAVE THE
BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO
LIFR/IFR LEVELS WITH MANY IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND/OR LIGHT FOG. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
OF TODAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTED A BIT
WESTWARD. FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BY THE LATE MORNING.
PROGRESSING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE AXIS OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH...AND THEN WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE CENTER OF A BERMUDA HIGH MOVES
WESTWARD TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GET ADVECTED WEST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO RETROGRADE. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONE
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING JET ALOFT COMBO WITH WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE REGION OF CONCERN IN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED AS A DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL TRAJECTORY STAYS PUT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE LOOKS TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SAW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT PWATS
DURING JULY WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL THREAT OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
RATE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ESPCLY IF
TRAINING IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY THAT WILL BE
NEEDED TO DRIVE THE DEEPER CONVECTION...AND WITH EXACTLY WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA MIGHT SET UP. THUS THINK BEST COURSE IS
TO FINALLY GO AHEAD IN HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CTYS INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT SRN
BLUE RIDGE WHERE GOT SOAKED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-022-
032>034-043-044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ035-
045>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1258 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME
DEGREE OF LESS ORGANIZATION...AND MORE INDIVIDUAL HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF RAIN. IN THE WEST...THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION...AND GAPS HAVE EXISTED IN THE OVERCAST FOR A FEW
HOURS. THIS WESTERN REGION WILL BE AREA TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE. NO CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION. THE CONCERN STILL
REMAINS TRAINING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED GENEROUS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. HAVE
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PICTURE
TODAY...WET...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77.
THE MORNING UPDATE REFLECTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE THOSE AREAS THAT
WILL EXPERIENCE CATEGORICAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND QPF NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT THE 12Z/8AM GUIDANCE FROM WPC.
HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 250 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OFF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO FADE SHRA THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE
LIFTING REMNANT SHRA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THUS
WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW LIKELY/CHANCE POPS MOST SPOTS ESPCLY
EASTERN HALF EARLY ON.
OTRW MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY...AND IN TURN HELPS PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS NEAR
THE COAST WESTWARD. MODELS ALSO SHOW AT LEAST SOME CHANNELED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PARALLEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TODAY. THIS LIFT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE TIME OF BEST HEATING...AND MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE CURRENT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG/EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A RATHER
STRONG UNDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP BANDS OR
STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN A TRAINING SETUP WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THIS IN COMBO WITH PWATS OF NEAR 2
INCHES COULD PROVIDE A VERY EFFICENT REGIME FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ESPCLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING ESPCLY IF MORE HEATING IS
REALIZED EARLY ON. GUIDANCE AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
MOST COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP PER HANDLING OF WAVES BUT AGREE A BIT
MORE ON HAVING MORE BANDING THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SUPPORTED
BY DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SUPPORTS
CAT/LIKELY POPS MOST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAIN MENTION SOUTH/EAST. STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN TO FLOOD
POTENTIAL PER HIGH FFG IN JULY AND ONLY POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THINK THREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EAST AND OVERNIGHT WEST FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MAV MOS GIVEN SUCH A WARM
START AND POSSIBLE BREAKS AT TIMES.
BANDS OF SHRA MAY AGAIN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
LINGERING AND UPPER FLOW STAYING PUT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
THE CHANNEL OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AIDED SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE
THE WATCH TO GO FARTHER NW BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY CAN LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTRW RUNNING WITH CAT TO LIKELY POPS WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS WEST. LOW TEMPS MAINLY MUGGY MID 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN BELT/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. UTILIZED HPCQPF FOR PLACEMENT
OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY....THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES ON THE HOLIDAY REMAIN IN THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN
STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET
MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S IN THE EAST...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE EAST. HIGHS COULD WARM INTO THE
MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RICH CLOUD COVER...WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE A DRYING BUT HEATING TREND THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS WWD INTO AND OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY. FRI NIGHT...THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL START TO SHIFT WEST AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION ALTHOUGH
THE WRN CWA APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE EDGE...SO POPS INTO SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE WEST TO LITTLE CHANCE IN THE EAST.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 594 RIDGE.
ASIDE FROM SOME HEAT OF THE DAY/EARLY EVENING STORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
BE REACHING THE 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE ROANOKE
AND SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN STARTING TO PUSH BACK NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS ATTM WITH SOME OF THIS RAINFALL LIKELY TO
AFFECT MANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MOST SPOTS EXCLUDING
PERHAPS KLWB THIS MORNING WITH PERIODIC MVFR VSBYS IN A FEW OF
THE HEAVIER SHRA. ALSO A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AHEAD OF
THE SHRA EARLY ON ACROSS THE EAST...AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE CIGS REMAIN BELOW 1K FT.
ADDITIONAL CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS MAY EXPERIENCE OCNL
VFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SO
INCLUDING A VCTS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PREVAILING SHRA IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SE WVA SITES WHERE THINKING SHRA MAY END UP
LESS LATER ON.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG LIKELY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STALLED UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION. ALSO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BY A GENEROUS FLOW FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...WITH PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING CHANCES
OF A BROADER EXPANSE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GET ADVECTED WEST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO RETROGRADE. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONE
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING JET ALOFT COMBO WITH WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE REGION OF CONCERN IN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED AS A DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL TRAJECTORY STAYS PUT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE LOOKS TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SAW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT PWATS
DURING JULY WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL THREAT OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
RATE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ESPCLY IF
TRAINING IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY THAT WILL BE
NEEDED TO DRIVE THE DEEPER CONVECTION...AND WITH EXACTLY WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA MIGHT SET UP. THUS THINK BEST COURSE IS
TO FINALLY GO AHEAD IN HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CTYS INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT SRN
BLUE RIDGE WHERE GOT SOAKED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-022-
032>034-043-044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ035-
045>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/KM
HYDROLOGY...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1234 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PICTURE
TODAY...WET...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77.
THE MORNING UPDATE REFLECTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE THOSE AREAS THAT
WILL EXPERIENCE CATEGORICAL RAINFALL TODAY...AND QPF NUMBERS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT THE 12Z/8AM GUIDANCE FROM WPC.
HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED
UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 250 AM EDT TUESDAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OFF THE SRN BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST HRRR WHICH CONTINUES TO FADE SHRA THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE
LIFTING REMNANT SHRA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THUS
WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME LOW LIKELY/CHANCE POPS MOST SPOTS ESPCLY
EASTERN HALF EARLY ON.
OTRW MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST STARTS TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY...AND IN TURN HELPS PULL THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS NEAR
THE COAST WESTWARD. MODELS ALSO SHOW AT LEAST SOME CHANNELED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PARALLEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE TODAY. THIS LIFT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE TIME OF BEST HEATING...AND MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE CURRENT LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG/EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A RATHER
STRONG UNDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP BANDS OR
STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN A TRAINING SETUP WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THIS IN COMBO WITH PWATS OF NEAR 2
INCHES COULD PROVIDE A VERY EFFICENT REGIME FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ESPCLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING ESPCLY IF MORE HEATING IS
REALIZED EARLY ON. GUIDANCE AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE
MOST COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP PER HANDLING OF WAVES BUT AGREE A BIT
MORE ON HAVING MORE BANDING THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SUPPORTED
BY DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SUPPORTS
CAT/LIKELY POPS MOST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAIN MENTION SOUTH/EAST. STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN TO FLOOD
POTENTIAL PER HIGH FFG IN JULY AND ONLY POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THINK THREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO
AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EAST AND OVERNIGHT WEST FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. KEPT TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MAV MOS GIVEN SUCH A WARM
START AND POSSIBLE BREAKS AT TIMES.
BANDS OF SHRA MAY AGAIN PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
LINGERING AND UPPER FLOW STAYING PUT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOCK IN
THE CHANNEL OF POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AIDED SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY FORCE
THE WATCH TO GO FARTHER NW BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY CAN LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTRW RUNNING WITH CAT TO LIKELY POPS WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS WEST. LOW TEMPS MAINLY MUGGY MID 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN
DEGREE OF MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CORN BELT/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. LIKE RECENT DAYS...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS FOR POPS DURING THE PERIOD. UTILIZED HPCQPF FOR PLACEMENT
OF RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY....THE UPPER RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD SENDING
THE BETTER PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES ON THE HOLIDAY REMAIN IN THE WEST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH GIVEN
STRONGER SHEAR CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR WET
MICROBURSTS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S IN THE EAST...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE EAST. HIGHS COULD WARM INTO THE
MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RICH CLOUD COVER...WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT TUESDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE A DRYING BUT HEATING TREND THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS WWD INTO AND OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY. FRI NIGHT...THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL START TO SHIFT WEST AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION ALTHOUGH
THE WRN CWA APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE EDGE...SO POPS INTO SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE WEST TO LITTLE CHANCE IN THE EAST.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 594 RIDGE.
ASIDE FROM SOME HEAT OF THE DAY/EARLY EVENING STORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
BE REACHING THE 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE ROANOKE
AND SRN SHENANDOAH VALLEY SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN STARTING TO PUSH BACK NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS ATTM WITH SOME OF THIS RAINFALL LIKELY TO
AFFECT MANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO MOST SPOTS EXCLUDING
PERHAPS KLWB THIS MORNING WITH PERIODIC MVFR VSBYS IN A FEW OF
THE HEAVIER SHRA. ALSO A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AHEAD OF
THE SHRA EARLY ON ACROSS THE EAST...AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE CIGS REMAIN BELOW 1K FT.
ADDITIONAL CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA. WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER BANDS MAY EXPERIENCE OCNL
VFR AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SO
INCLUDING A VCTS TO GO ALONG WITH THE PREVAILING SHRA IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SE WVA SITES WHERE THINKING SHRA MAY END UP
LESS LATER ON.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG LIKELY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STALLED UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION. ALSO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE BY A GENEROUS FLOW FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME...WITH PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING CHANCES
OF A BROADER EXPANSE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES GET ADVECTED WEST TOWARD THE
BLUE RIDGE AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO RETROGRADE. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONE
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING JET ALOFT COMBO WITH WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE REGION OF CONCERN IN SEEING BETTER COVERAGE OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED AS A DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL TRAJECTORY STAYS PUT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE LOOKS TO ENHANCE ANY PRECIP ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE
SAW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DECENT PWATS
DURING JULY WOULD SUGGEST A MINIMAL THREAT OF FLOODING...RAINFALL
RATE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 3 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ESPCLY IF
TRAINING IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY THAT WILL BE
NEEDED TO DRIVE THE DEEPER CONVECTION...AND WITH EXACTLY WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA MIGHT SET UP. THUS THINK BEST COURSE IS
TO FINALLY GO AHEAD IN HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CTYS INTO THIS EVENING...AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE/FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT SRN
BLUE RIDGE WHERE GOT SOAKED MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ009-012>017-022-
032>034-043-044.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ035-
045>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH/KK/KM
HYDROLOGY...DS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND VARIOUS IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS NNE UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOWERS ARE MOVING
NORTHWEST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...AND A FEW HAVE
BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR ON THE WEST SIDE
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE ARE MORE
ROBUST...PERHAPS DUE TO BETTER FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
THAT AREA. CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE RETROGRADING WEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BADGER STATE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MARCH THEIR WAY TO THE WEST AS WELL WITH CLOUDS THICKENING
AND LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED SKY
COVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGE. THE CURRENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION IS QUITE DRY BUT THE INCOMING MOISTURE IS ESSENTIALLY A
RESULT FROM A CHANGE IN AIRMASS ALOFT SO DO NOT THINK THE DRY AIR
WILL FEND OFF THE INCOMING MOISTURE. THIS MAKES PRECIP FORECASTING
PROBLEMATIC...SINCE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 800MB. DO
NOT REALLY TRUST GOING DRY TONIGHT ONCE THIS MOISTURE ALOFT
ARRIVES...SO WILL ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM E-C WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHERN DOOR COUNTY. LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
TONIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD...BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE SOUTH AND ALSO EAST
OF THE AREA...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO RELY ON DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE SHOWERS. WILL EXPAND THE PRECIP MENTION BACK INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE 12Z MODELS PROG THE INSTABILITY TO REACH 300-500
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO FROM TODAYS HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY
EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER TIMING ISSUES WITH SYSTEMS IN WESTERLIES
ALONG NORTHERN TIER STATE BEGIN. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ENSEMBLE SUN
ONWARD.
WEAK UPPER TROF TO REMAIN OVER REGION EARLY IN PERIOD. WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE
POPS. WILL LEAVE FRI DRY ATTM THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN TO BE LATE IN WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THINGS DOWN AND LINGER WEAK FRONT
OVER STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO AREA. MODEST
INSTABILITY MAINLY SURFACE BASED AS UPPER LAPSE RATES NOT OVERLY
STEEP. PWATS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 1.5 IN. SHEAR
INCREASES A BIT...THOUGH MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME LIKELY HEAVY
RAIN.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO MID 80S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER MICHIGAN WILL RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTS NORTH. CIGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
REMAIN VFR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
326 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP DEPICTED A HIGH AMPLIFIED STAGNANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NOAM WITH A HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WERE
TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED.
A FEW TSTORMS THAT FORMED AROUND MIDDAY BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND
KIMBALL HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS
FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
PREVAILING WINDS WERE VARIABLE 10 MPH OR LESS...OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 20 MPH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWLY RETROGRADES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER LOW/TROUGH SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...THE
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM.
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NAM DOES SPREAD SOME CONVECTION AND LIGHT QPF INTO WESTERN CARBON
COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND ECWMF
KEEP THIS MOISTURE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL WYOMING. AT THIS TIME...WILL
OPT FOR A DRY FORECAST. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM
TODAY...RANGING FROM 11 TO 15C. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A TAD MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WINDS DURING THE
SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND WILL
PASS TO THE EAST FOR FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE TO THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE WILL SPARK OFF MAINLY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW STORMS LOOKING TO SNEAK OFF
INTO THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AS EASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE TOWARD THE LARAMIE RANGE. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART AND MODELS SHOW THE ACTIVITY ENDING BY
EARLY EVENING. A BROADER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CWA FOR FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE AS
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADVECTS IN MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. EASTERLY RETURN
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVER THE REGION. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST FOR SUNDAY...ALBEIT WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
ANALYZED FOR THIS DAY. THEREFORE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER TSTORMS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. ANOTHER BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
ENERGY AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
LESS MOISTURE AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT IN MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED VCTS WITH BKN080CB
FOR CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE FROM 20Z TO 01Z. TSRA THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT AND MODERATE RAINFALL. CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 8 TO 15 KT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MARGINALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE UPPER HIGH SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
WILL SHIFT WINDS ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL DRAW MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE DISTRICTS...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...MAZUR
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI