Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/01/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT VERY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN SUNDAY.
GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL THEN LEAD TO THE DAILY CYCLE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO PROVIDE A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 35 DBZ
ECHOES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS VALID 2140Z. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS
VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. 29/18Z RUC HRRR SEEMED WELL
INITIALIZED REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS
SWRN NM AND IS ACCEPTED FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST. BULK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO MOVE SWWD ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES
THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS TO THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE LATE TONIGHT.
29/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A GRADUAL INCREASE OF
MOISTURE STARTING SUN AND CONTINUING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE
WAS ESSENTIALLY NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE INHERITED POP GRIDS FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR WEST AS THE TUCSON METRO AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND
SUN EVENING. CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS TO OCCUR SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES.
EXPECT A SIMILAR POP SCENARIO MON AFTERNOON AND MON EVENING.
THEREAFTER...POPS INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE-CATEGORY AS FAR WEST AS
TUCSON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FURTHER WWD INTO THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WED AFTERNOON AND WED EVENING FROM TUCSON
EWD/SWD...AND LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY.
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF THUR-SAT REGARDING
THE POSITION OF THE WRN STATES HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE
DIFFERENCES ALSO YIELDED DIFFERENT MOISTURE VALUES AND MODEL QPF/S.
IN ESSENCE...ECMWF KEPT UPPER HIGH QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN REGION...AND NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SE AZ.
MEANWHILE...GFS DEPICTED UPPER HIGH TO MOVE SWD INTO CENTRAL AZ.
THE CORRESPONDING PRECIP FIELDS WERE MARKEDLY DRIER BY NEXT SAT
VERSUS THE ECMWF. PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S...OPTED TO DEPICT
ONLY A SLIGHT DAILY REDUCTION IN POPS THUR-SAT. THUS...EXPECT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO OCCUR
THUR-SAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE MAINTAINED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THRU 9 PM
MST SUN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT WIDESPREAD
WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. AT ANY RATE...THERE
SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS MON-THUR IN RESPONSE
TO INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD -TSRA MAINLY NEAR MTNS INTO EARLY EVENING...ENDING
BY 30/04Z AND AGAIN SUNDAY BETWEEN 30/21Z AND 01/04Z. OTHERWISE...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 12K FT AGL THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR 01/00Z. NORMAL DIURNAL SURFACE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SPEEDS OF
10-15 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR
-TSRA. VERY HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE INCREASED TAKE OFF
LENGTHS DURING PEAK HEATING THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY. GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A DAILY CYCLE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES. GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE
TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CLIMATE...THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SO FAR AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT IS 84 DEGREES. THIS TEMPERATURES TIES THE RECORD HIGHEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY (JUN 29) WHICH WAS SET IN 1898.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ501>506-509-
515.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
BF/KD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1101 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013
UPDATED GRIDS...MAINLY POPS...TO ACCOUNT FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. -PJC
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013
...MORE STORMS FOR THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...
THE TWO MAIN CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE THE
CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN
PLAINS...AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN AND AROUND BURN AREAS.
CURRENTLY...A SMALL CIRCULATION 20 TO 30 MILES NNW OF COS...WITH ASSOCIATED
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY...IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ESPECIALLY IN TELLER COUNTY
WHERE NUMEROUS CG STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WITH A STRONG CELL
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CANON CITY. THE 12Z GFS40 PV15
ALSO SHOWS A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. THESE INGREDIENTS...ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30`S AND 40`S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WILL AID
IN KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS GOING AFTER SUNSET. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE...MINALY DUE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
LATER TONIGHT...THE HRRR/RAP/NAM12 CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH 06Z. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR AND RAP...SEEM A BIT OVERDONE ON THE
MOISTURE (CURRENT TD IN LHX IS 26)...BUT STILL FEEL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WIND...BUT IF
MOISTURE DOES RETURN VIA A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE AS THE RAP AND HRRR
FORECAST...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS
30-40KTS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE NAM12/GFS/EC ALL SHOW ANOTHER...MORE SIGNIFICANT...DISTURBANCE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DROP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HELP DROP
700MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 11C...LEADING TO COOLER MAX
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOSITURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CURRENT ACTIVE BURN AREAS SUCH AS
THE WEST FORK COMPLEX AND EAST PEAK FIRES...ALONG WITH THE WALDO
CANYON SCAR...WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO THE
INCREASE IS MOISTURE. -PJC
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013
...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN...AND FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE BURN SCARS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
WEST AND REMAINS CENTERED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TO
CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT
SUNDAY AND CURRENT MODEL TIMING SHOWS IT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...CAPES
IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO MOUNTAINS...
EXPECT TO HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION FIRING BY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO IMPACT ONE OF THE BURN SCARS
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WITH ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING...
INSTABILITY...AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH CAPES AND DEWPOINTS DECREASE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE...INTENSITY...AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AXIS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY. GFS FORECASTS THE CLOSED LOW TO RETROGRADE FRIDAY
TO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...OVER WESTERN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THE GFS
SCENARIO...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A FEW RUNS NOW...KEEPS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN A COOL AND ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SCENARIO
KEEPS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
STILL EXPECT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMDITIES TO BRING SOME RELIEF TO WILDFIRE THREAT. STARK
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013
AFTER SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT KPUB...THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERN AT KALS...KCOS...AND
KPUB ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT
KCOS AND THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED AT KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
745 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND A
BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. THE HIGH
BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIMILAR STORY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH THE REGION REMAINING SITUATED
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THE LATEST SURFACE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION THIS FRONT THEN REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE REGION NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FRONT...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL
BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN.
LATEST HRRR RUN LAGGING ABOUT AN HOUR BEHIND REAL TIME
REFLECTIVITY...NOT DEVELOPING THE PCPN CURRENTLY OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE TILL AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...DO AGREE WITH THIS PCPN THEN
TRENDING TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CT. WILL CONTINUE SCT POPS OVER THIS AREA...WITH ISO
POPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. PCPN MAINLY SCT SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS THEN HINT AT DRYING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTN. 10Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT DRY SLOT BEHIND
THE VORT MAX MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHICH IS PRODUCING
THE PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. THINKING THIS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER THIS
MORNING...KEEPING FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN OVER THE AREA...WITH
THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEING LATE AFTN INTO THE
EVENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF JUST WEST...AND
POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ASSIST IN
PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN AROUND
1000 J/KG...AND EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KTS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE FORM OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
TODAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...GENERALLY
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INITIALLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LAST BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
INLAND...ALONG WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF
THE HEATING...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
OVERNIGHT...THINKING ANY PCPN SHOULD END BY 06Z...AND WE COULD
ACTUALLY SEE A DRY PERIOD UNTIL AT LEAST MID SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT
FOR A RANDOM SHOWER.
THE CHANCE FOR PCPN INCREASES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND NEARING
THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES SHOOT UP...REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP LATE SUN AFTN. THE PASSING OF A SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE DAY
COULD GENERATE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SCT
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND AREA WHERE INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE HIGHER BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER.
TEMPS HOVER NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS MAY
DIFFER BY A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ANY PCPN THAT
FORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW HINTING AT THE TROUGH WEAKENING SOONER AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHES WEST TUES INTO WED. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN WITH SUCH A SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TIMING. HOWEVER...IF THE TROUGH DOES
WEAKEN SOONER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LESS CHC FOR PCPN TUES-
THURS.
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THE SHORTWAVES WILL
HELP TRIGGER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES TOUGH BUT
WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS...WITH THE
RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH THEN PUSHING MORE INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER...WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. TEMPS FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE COMING
WEEK...REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST WILL IMPACT THE
EASTERN THROUGH 13Z...BUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.
PERSISTENCE TYPE OF FORECAST WITH A TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND AN ONSHORE S/SW FLOW. AIRMASS HAS DRIED SOME
AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGON...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG UP
TO 13Z...OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MIX. KGON WITH THE
TRAJECTORY OF HIGH DEW POINT AIR ACROSS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER...LIKELY TO STAY LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
THERE WAS A 3 HOUR WINDOW ON FRI WHERE CIGS WENT VFR WITH MVFR
VSBYS. LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT.
A LIGHT S/SW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KT BY MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN-WED...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
THERE MAY ALSO BE EPISODES OF STRATUS/FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH THE EMPHASIS ON KGON.
&&
.MARINE...
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE OCEAN
WATERS TODAY...THOUGH MAY REACH THE OTHER WATERS THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING.
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
SUN...LIKELY TO TO BE EXTENDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
A LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO...
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KT...WITH THE UPPER END OF THE RANGE
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS/MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...SEARS/DW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
658 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND A
BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. THE HIGH
BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIMILAR STORY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH THE REGION REMAINING SITUATED
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THE LATEST SURFACE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION THIS FRONT THEN REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE REGION NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FRONT...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL
BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN.
LATEST HRRR RUN LAGGING ABOUT AN HOUR BEHIND REAL TIME
REFLECTIVITY...NOT DEVELOPING THE PCPN CURRENTLY OFF THE JERSEY
SHORE TILL AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...DO AGREE WITH THIS PCPN THEN
TRENDING TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CT. WILL CONTINUE SCT POPS OVER THIS AREA...WITH ISO
POPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. PCPN MAINLY SCT SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS THEN HINT AT DRYING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTN. 10Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT DRY SLOT BEHIND
THE VORT MAX MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHICH IS PRODUCING
THE PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. THINKING THIS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER THIS
MORNING...KEEPING FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN OVER THE AREA...WITH
THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEING LATE AFTN INTO THE
EVENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF JUST WEST...AND
POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ASSIST IN
PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN AROUND
1000 J/KG...AND EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KTS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE FORM OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
TODAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...GENERALLY
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INITIALLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LAST BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
INLAND...ALONG WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF
THE HEATING...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
OVERNIGHT...THINKING ANY PCPN SHOULD END BY 06Z...AND WE COULD
ACTUALLY SEE A DRY PERIOD UNTIL AT LEAST MID SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT
FOR A RANDOM SHOWER.
THE CHANCE FOR PCPN INCREASES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND NEARING
THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES SHOOT UP...REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP LATE SUN AFTN. THE PASSING OF A SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE DAY
COULD GENERATE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SCT
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND AREA WHERE INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE HIGHER BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER.
TEMPS HOVER NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS MAY
DIFFER BY A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ANY PCPN THAT
FORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW HINTING AT THE TROUGH WEAKENING SOONER AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHES WEST TUES INTO WED. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN WITH SUCH A SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TIMING. HOWEVER...IF THE TROUGH DOES
WEAKEN SOONER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LESS CHC FOR PCPN TUES-
THURS.
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THE SHORTWAVES WILL
HELP TRIGGER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES TOUGH BUT
WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS...WITH THE
RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH THEN PUSHING MORE INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER...WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. TEMPS FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE COMING
WEEK...REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERSISTENCE TYPE OF FORECAST WITH A TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND AN ONSHORE S/SW FLOW. AIRMASS HAS DRIED SOME
AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGON...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG UP
TO 12Z...OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MIX. KGON WITH THE
TRAJECTORY OF HIGH DEW POINT AIR ACROSS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER...LIKELY TO STAY LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
THERE WAS A 3 HOUR WINDOW ON FRI WHERE CIGS WENT VFR WITH MVFR
VSBYS. LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT.
A LIGHT S/SW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KT BY MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN-WED...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
THERE MAY ALSO BE EPISODES OF STRATUS/FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH THE EMPHASIS ON KGON.
&&
.MARINE...
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE OCEAN
WATERS TODAY...THOUGH MAY REACH THE OTHER WATERS THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING.
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
SUN...LIKELY TO TO BE EXTENDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
A LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO...
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KT...WITH THE UPPER END OF THE RANGE
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS/MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...SEARS/DW
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
426 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND A
BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. THE HIGH
BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIMILAR STORY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH THE REGION REMAINING SITUATED
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THE LATEST SURFACE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION THIS FRONT THEN REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE REGION NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FRONT...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL
BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN.
LATEST HRRR AND 00Z SPC WRF STILL HINT AT SOME ISO-SCT COVERAGE
GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF LONG ISLAND AND CT AROUND 12Z
THIS MORNING SO CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTM.
THE MODELS THEN HINT AT DRYING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTN...WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEING LATE
AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF JUST WEST...AND
POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ASSIST IN
PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN AROUND
1000 J/KG...AND WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE FORM OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TODAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...GENERALLY
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INITIALLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LAST BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
INLAND...ALONG WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF
THE HEATING...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
OVERNIGHT...THINKING ANY PCPN SHOULD END BY 06Z...AND WE COULD
ACTUALLY SEE A DRY PERIOD UNTIL AT LEAST MID SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT
FOR A RANDOM SHOWER.
THE CHANCE FOR PCPN INCREASES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND NEARING
THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES SHOOT UP...REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP LATE SUN AFTN. THE PASSING OF A SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE DAY
COULD GENERATE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SCT
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND AREA WHERE INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE HIGHER BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER.
TEMPS HOVER NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS MAY
DIFFER BY A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ANY PCPN THAT
FORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW HINTING AT THE TROUGH WEAKENING SOONER AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHES WEST TUES INTO WED. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN WITH SUCH A SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TIMING. HOWEVER...IF THE TROUGH DOES
WEAKEN SOONER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LESS CHC FOR PCPN TUES-
THURS.
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THE SHORTWAVES WILL
HELP TRIGGER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES TOUGH BUT
WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS...WITH THE
RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH THEN PUSHING MORE INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER...WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. TEMPS FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE COMING
WEEK...REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERSISTENCE TYPE OF FORECAST WITH A TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND AN ONSHORE S/SW FLOW. AIRMASS HAS DRIED SOME
AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGON...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG UP
TO 12Z...OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MIX. KGON WITH THE
TRAJECTORY OF HIGH DEW POINT AIR ACROSS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER...LIKELY TO STAY LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
THERE WAS A 3 HOUR WINDOW ON FRI WHERE CIGS WENT VFR WITH MVFR
VSBYS. LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT.
A LIGHT S/SW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KT BY MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN-WED...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
THERE MAY ALSO BE EPISODES OF STRATUS/FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH THE EMPHASIS ON KGON.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
SUN...LIKELY TO TO BE EXTENDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
A LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO...
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KT...WITH THE UPPER END OF THE RANGE
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS/MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
407 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND A
BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. THE HIGH
BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SIMILAR STORY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH THE REGION REMAINING SITUATED
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITH THE LATEST SURFACE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION THIS FRONT THEN REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE REGION NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FRONT...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL
BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN.
LATEST HRRR AND 00Z SPC WRF STILL HINT AT SOME ISO-SCT COVERAGE
GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF LONG ISLAND AND CT AROUND 12Z
THIS MORNING SO CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTM.
THE MODELS THEN HINT AT DRYING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTN...WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEING LATE
AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF JUST WEST...AND
POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ASSIST IN
PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN AROUND
1000 J/KG...AND WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE FORM OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TODAY.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...GENERALLY
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INITIALLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LAST BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
INLAND...ALONG WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF
THE HEATING...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN
OVERNIGHT...THINKING ANY PCPN SHOULD END BY 06Z...AND WE COULD
ACTUALLY SEE A DRY PERIOD UNTIL AT LEAST MID SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT
FOR A RANDOM SHOWER.
THE CHANCE FOR PCPN INCREASES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND NEARING
THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES SHOOT UP...REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP LATE SUN AFTN. THE PASSING OF A SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE DAY
COULD GENERATE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SCT
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND AREA WHERE INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE HIGHER BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER.
TEMPS HOVER NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS MAY
DIFFER BY A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ANY PCPN THAT
FORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW HINTING AT THE TROUGH WEAKENING SOONER AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHES WEST TUES INTO WED. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN WITH SUCH A SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TIMING. HOWEVER...IF THE TROUGH DOES
WEAKEN SOONER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LESS CHC FOR PCPN TUES-
THURS.
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THE SHORTWAVES WILL
HELP TRIGGER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES TOUGH BUT
WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS...WITH THE
RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH THEN PUSHING MORE INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER...WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. TEMPS FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE COMING
WEEK...REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERSISTENCE TYPE OF FORECAST WITH A TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND AN ONSHORE S/SW FLOW. AIRMASS HAS DRIED SOME
AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGON...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG UP
TO 12Z...OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MIX. KGON WITH THE
TRAJECTORY OF HIGH DEW POINT AIR ACROSS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER...LIKELY TO STAY LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
THERE WAS A 3 HOUR WINDOW ON FRI WHERE CIGS WENT VFR WITH MVFR
VSBYS. LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT.
A LIGHT S/SW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KT BY MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN-WED...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
THERE MAY ALSO BE EPISODES OF STRATUS/FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH THE EMPHASIS ON KGON.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
SUN...LIKELY TO TO BE EXTENDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
A LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO...
ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KT...WITH THE UPPER END OF THE RANGE
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS/MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
210 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY ENDED OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
APPEAR ON TRACK TO APPROACH ATLC COAST AFTER 3Z. CONFIDENT TOO LOW
TO PLACE VCSH IN FORECAST...HOWEVER. VCTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...AT SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
UPDATE...
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS THIS EVENING ACROSS COASTAL PALM
BEACH COUNTY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE KEEPS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED ACROSS MAINLY THE REGIONAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. UPDATED POP AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. UPDATE SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY INFLUENCED BY THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WHICH STRETCHES ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MAINTAINING A STEERING FLOW THAT IS
NEARLY NONEXISTENT WITH ERRATIC STORM MOTION. HOWEVER, AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WHICH IN TURN WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY TONIGHT. HINTS OF THIS OCCURRING ARE
BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE RADAR AND SATELLITE SIGNATURES WITH A
VERY SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HRRR IS COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH THAT THINKING ALSO. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THE HRRR ALSO IS
SHOWING GOOD DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z WHICH HAS YET TO OCCUR SO TRENDED
LATER WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH DEEPENING
IT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST METRO REGION. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH STORM
MOTION WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS AND RELATIVELY WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH
DEEPENING EVEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING
UP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AS MASSIVE RIDGES WILL BE IN EXISTENCE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AN EVEN STRONGER DEEP SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. IN FACT,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AROUND 20 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE LOW
LEVELS FROM ABOUT 2-7K FEET AND THIS ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STILL NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDER.
THE KEY FACTOR WILL BE IF A EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WITH SUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE PWAT IS
FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES SO CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
REMAIN HIGH BUT THERE COULD BE ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME HOWEVER, BOTH THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING
VERY HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDER. SO FOR THE TIME BEING WILL NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER GUIDANCE
TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER TO LOWER CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING
STRIKES. ALL IN ALL THOUGH, IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET WEEKEND
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
VERY SLOW RETROGRESSION TO THE WEST IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
EVER SO SLOWLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. SO FOR TUESDAY,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A STEERING FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY
AND THEN RETURNING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. THE PWAT WILL REMAIN AT NEAR TWO INCHES ALL OF NEXT WEEK
SO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN HIGH BUT SHIFT BACK TO THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE... THE WIND WILL BE MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS A STRONG TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A SCEC STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATERS AS SPEEDS COULD INCREASE IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 89 76 / 50 30 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 89 78 / 50 40 70 50
MIAMI 90 78 90 78 / 40 40 70 50
NAPLES 91 76 91 76 / 40 30 70 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1101 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT INLAND AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE... A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PRODUCE TIMES
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND
EXPAND INTO THE REGION AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MAINTAINED THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH OF I-16.
THE KCHS RAOB DEPICTED A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS FEATURING
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT N/NE INTO
THIS ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY EVENING DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH/EAST EXPANSION OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL FOCUS
INLAND. HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A SUBTLE NE COMPONENT TO
THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION...WHILE A WELL/DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PERSISTS ACROSS COLLETON COUNTY AND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
REGION...SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP AND/OR SHIFT
INTO THIS REGION LATER ON. IN GENERAL...UPDATED POPS ARE GRADUATED
FROM LIKELY/CATEGORICAL SOUTH/WEST TO CHANCE/LIKELY NORTH/EAST.
GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING...LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL HAVE DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIME FOR SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.
WIDESPREAD WET CONDITIONS LOOK APPARENT ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SFC LOW
REMAINS POSITIONED THE DEEP SOUTH AND LIKELY AMPLIFIES MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE REGION WHILE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXPANDS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FORCES THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN PINNED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AS PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 2.5 INCHES...FAVORABLE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OCCURS WITH AN H25 JET...AND SEVERAL H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD
BE ON MONDAY WHEN ENHANCED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A 30-35 KT H85 JET WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE AS THE WEAK SFC LOW TO OUR WEST RESULTS IN FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 OVER
ALL LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPERIENCED AND ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL MAINTAIN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRECISE LOCATION ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 70 OVER MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN THE INCREASING TREND
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE THE LARGE TROUGH TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST BEGINS
TO MAKE A NORTHERN RETREAT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST PRECIP
ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER FAR INLAND LOCATIONS...THUS HAVE KEEP 60-70
POPS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
NEAR 50 POPS ALONG THE COAST.
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GIVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SATURATED PROFILES...HOWEVER CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED EVENT WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG SFC HEATING DUE TO THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...HIGHEST INLAND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD INDICATING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING WEST OF THE AREA THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST EACH
MORNING TRANSITIONING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY GETTING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALSO ANY ANY TIME
OUTSIDE PRECIPITATION DUE TO RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT
LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS HAS INCREASED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. ACCURATE TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ELUSIVE.AT TIMES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT TERMINALS
CONTINUOUSLY WITH FLUCTUATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT OTHER TIMES
ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT AMENDMENTS TO
ADDRESS NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS/IMPACTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS JUSTIFY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL AREAS
OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR OVERNIGHT. PER LATE SUNDAY EVENING
TRENDS...RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ354 VALID UNTIL 8 AM
MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DISRUPTED THE PRESSURE PATTERN/WINDS WITHIN
SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC
SCALE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JETTING INTENSIFIES.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL ALTER LOCAL WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS POSITIONED INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ALL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS IN MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NEARSHORE SC WATERS AND OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK NEAR
20-25 KTS WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT DURING THE ADVISORY EVENT
AS A 30-35 KT LOW LVL JET ADVANCES NORTH OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO MID WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
RIP CURRENTS...AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG SC BEACHES DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS NEAR
15-20 MPH AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT. THUS THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST...THUS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW
CATEGORY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL REMAIN AN IMPRESSIVE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE REGION REMAINS ANCHORED UNDERNEATH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTING NORTH BETWEEN BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
PLETHORA OF UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH WILL SUPPORT
HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MUCH OF THE REGION IS RUNNING WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ROUGHLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 30/845 PM EDT...2.33 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN AT THE
CHARLESTON AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR
THE DATE. WE WILL TRANSMIT A RECORD EVENT REPORT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHEN DAILY RAINFALL FOR JUNE 30 IS FINALIZED
RECORD RAINFALL TOTALS FOR 30 JUNE...
PREVIOUS CHARLESTON AIRPORT... 1.75 INCHES - 1987
WATERFRONT PARK...... 2.12 INCHES - 1944
SAVANNAH AIRPORT..... 3.06 INCHES - 1983
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
151 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN.
CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO CROSSING THE AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE UPSTATE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
IN THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. CHANCES OF CONVECTION STILL
APPEAR HIGHEST OVER THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE PWAT REMAINS
NEAR 2.00 INCHES. LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL INDICATE CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT ALSO DEVELOPS AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE PIEDMONT. WILL KEEP
POPS FROM 30 PERCENT WEST TO 60 PERCENT EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS... ALLOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN US
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE AREA...A CONVERGENCE AREA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
RESULTING IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH HEATING ON SUNDAY PUSHING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETTING STARTED IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. BEST LOCATION FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS...INCLUDING OGB...WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ARE HIGHER. CONVECTION ALSO GETTING STARTED IN THE UPSTATE ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AT ANY TAF SITE. GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AND LOCATION...WILL NOT INCLUDE
CONVECTION OTHER TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE RUC AND NAM MODELS...AS
WELL AS THE GFS TO A LESSER DEGREE...ARE INDICATING MVFR OR LOWER
CIGS AFTER 30/06Z. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE...SO WILL INCLUDE LATE
NIGHT MVFR CIGS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 30/12Z GIVEN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THROUGH FRI JUNE 28TH...AUGUSTA GA BUSH FIELD HAS RECEIVED A TOTAL
OF 10.52 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS HAS
ALREADY ESTABLISHED JUNE 2013 AS THE 2ND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD AT
AUGUSTA. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD AT AUGUSTA IS 10.59 INCHES SET
IN 2004...SO TO ESTABLISH JUNE 2013 AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD
AT AUGUSTA...AGS NEEDS TO RECEIVE 0.08 MORE INCHES OF RAIN THIS
MONTH. ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT KEEP RECORDS FOR DANIEL FIELD...IT HAS
RECEIVED 13.47 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR FOR JUNE. QUITE A DRAMATIC
DIFFERENCE FROM LAST JUNE AS AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD ONLY RECEIVED 2.48
INCHES FOR THE MONTH.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013/
UPDATE...
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN GA.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS STILL BACK
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLEARING IS NOTED
ACROSS NORTHERN GA BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT DO EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO
FILL BACK IN DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. STILL COPIOUS CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWFA. BREAKS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO OCCUR AND SKIES SHOULDN`T BE BKN MUCH LONGER.
WITH THE WIND SHIFT/LOWER DEWPOINTS BACK OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...THERE SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF A DROP IN DEWPOINTS
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. 10Z RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK OUT SOME
SHOWERS RIGHT AROUND THE METRO AREA IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME.
THINK ISOLD SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND THUNDER
WILL BE A STRUGGLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. LIKE THE SCT COVERAGE
FURTHER SOUTH. NO CHANGE TO POPS AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013/
UPDATE...
NEAR TERM.
FCST NOT TOO FAR OFF TRACK. JUST WHEN SHRA/TSRA APPEAR TO HAVE
DISSIPATED OVER SRN COUNTIES...ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS. MODELS STILL
WANT TO ADVECT/MIX DOWN DRIER AIR OVER NORTH AND MUCH OF CENTRAL
GA TODAY. MAY TAKE SOME TIME...BUT APPEARS DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY...ESP OVER NORTH GA TODAY. MAY UPDATE POPS/WX ONE LAST
TIME. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.
SNELSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF
SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING UPPER AIR PATTERN. 3 WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN NORTHERN LATITUDES FAVORS
RETROGRADING PROPAGATION WHILE A COUPLE CUTOFF LOWS IN MID AND LOWER
LATITUDES OVER ERN PACIFIC AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN CONUS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND
SHORTER WAVELENGTH WHILE SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST.
ON THE MESOSCALE...DRIER AIR AT SFC HAS PUSHED INTO NE GA THIS
MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. SHALLOW RICH
MOISTURE COULD MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF NORTH GA...
PROVIDING SMALL RELIEF TO RECENT HUMID CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MIDDLE
GA WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. NO
WELL DEFINED SFC FRONT BUT WILL BE A MOISTURE AND CLOUD BOUNDARY AND
DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STORMS OVER
MIDDLE GA. HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITY AND NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALSO
FAVOR THIS AREA FOR CONVECTION. CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THEN FIRE UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVENTUALLY CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MS
VALLEY STATES.
VERY UNUSUAL...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN FOR NEAR THE FIRST OF
JULY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR INCREASING AND
ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS ARE STILL STATUS QUO FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEGUN DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH
MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL GA IN
MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL KEEP
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY
DAY. THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND ACTS AS A CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL MOVEMENT...THIS
BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY MUCH AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAY 7.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WTIH A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO CENTRAL AL. SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP FROM AHN
SW. SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN SOUTH OF ATL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED FOR THE AFT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT CIGS REMAIN AOA 3500 FT. COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD BE HIGHER TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH FUNNELS
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS GA.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SHRA/TSRA THIS AFT AND OVERNIGHT CIGS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 90 69 86 68 / 20 30 50 50
ATLANTA 87 70 85 69 / 20 20 40 40
BLAIRSVILLE 83 62 80 63 / 20 20 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 87 66 85 65 / 20 20 30 40
COLUMBUS 90 72 88 68 / 30 30 40 30
GAINESVILLE 86 69 83 68 / 20 20 40 50
MACON 89 71 87 69 / 30 30 60 40
ROME 88 66 86 65 / 10 20 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 88 67 85 66 / 20 20 30 30
VIDALIA 88 72 87 73 / 50 50 70 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1005 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.UPDATE...
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN GA.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS STILL BACK
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLEARING IS NOTED
ACROSS NORTHERN GA BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT DO EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO
FILL BACK IN DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. STILL COPIOUS CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWFA. BREAKS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO OCCUR AND SKIES SHOULDN`T BE BKN MUCH LONGER.
WITH THE WIND SHIFT/LOWER DEWPOINTS BACK OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...THERE SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF A DROP IN DEWPOINTS
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. 10Z RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK OUT SOME
SHOWERS RIGHT AROUND THE METRO AREA IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME.
THINK ISOLD SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND THUNDER
WILL BE A STRUGGLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. LIKE THE SCT COVERAGE
FURTHER SOUTH. NO CHANGE TO POPS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013/
UPDATE...
NEAR TERM.
FCST NOT TOO FAR OFF TRACK. JUST WHEN SHRA/TSRA APPEAR TO HAVE
DISSIPATED OVER SRN COUNTIES...ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS. MODELS STILL
WANT TO ADVECT/MIX DOWN DRIER AIR OVER NORTH AND MUCH OF CENTRAL
GA TODAY. MAY TAKE SOME TIME...BUT APPEARS DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY...ESP OVER NORTH GA TODAY. MAY UPDATE POPS/WX ONE LAST
TIME. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.
SNELSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF
SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING UPPER AIR PATTERN. 3 WAVE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN NORTHERN LATITUDES FAVORS
RETROGRADING PROPAGATION WHILE A COUPLE CUTOFF LOWS IN MID AND LOWER
LATITUDES OVER ERN PACIFIC AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ERN CONUS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND
SHORTER WAVELENGTH WHILE SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST.
ON THE MESOSCALE...DRIER AIR AT SFC HAS PUSHED INTO NE GA THIS
MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. SHALLOW RICH
MOISTURE COULD MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF NORTH GA...
PROVIDING SMALL RELIEF TO RECENT HUMID CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MIDDLE
GA WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. NO
WELL DEFINED SFC FRONT BUT WILL BE A MOISTURE AND CLOUD BOUNDARY AND
DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STORMS OVER
MIDDLE GA. HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITY AND NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALSO
FAVOR THIS AREA FOR CONVECTION. CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THEN FIRE UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVENTUALLY CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MS
VALLEY STATES.
VERY UNUSUAL...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN FOR NEAR THE FIRST OF
JULY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR INCREASING AND
ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THINGS ARE STILL STATUS QUO FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEGUN DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH
MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL GA IN
MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL KEEP
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY
DAY. THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND ACTS AS A CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL MOVEMENT...THIS
BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY MUCH AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAY 7.
01
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
STRATUS/FOG IN PLACE OVER MOST NORTH AND SOME CENTRAL GA AIRPORTS.
CIGS ALREADY BEGINNING TO RISE. EXPECT SCT DECK BY 14Z. WITH DRIER
AIR PUSHING ACROSS NORTH GA TODAY...COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL BE LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT NEAR THE SAME OVER AIRPORTS SOUTH AND EAST OF
MACON. HAVE REMOVED TEMPO TS FOR ALL EXCEPT KCSG AND KMCN. WEST
SFC WINDS MAY GUST TO 14-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 90 69 86 68 / 30 30 50 50
ATLANTA 87 70 85 69 / 30 20 40 40
BLAIRSVILLE 83 62 80 63 / 20 20 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 87 66 85 65 / 20 20 30 40
COLUMBUS 90 72 88 68 / 50 30 40 30
GAINESVILLE 86 69 83 68 / 20 20 40 50
MACON 89 71 87 69 / 50 40 60 40
ROME 88 66 86 65 / 10 20 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 88 67 85 66 / 30 20 30 30
VIDALIA 88 72 87 73 / 60 50 70 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
158 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM.
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS NORTH GA BUT STILL GOING IN SRN
COUNTIES. HAVE TWEAKED POPS/WX AGAIN AND YET AGAIN...TRADITIONAL
MOS GUIDANCE FAILING MISERABLY. RECENT HRRR RUNS AND OTHER HIRES
MODELS ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKEN CONVECTION THRU 12Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING ...ONLY TO FIRE IT UP AGAIN OVER SE COUNTIES BY NOON-
1PM. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD. GOOD CHC OF FOG/STRATUS NEAR SUNRISE
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
FELL OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED AWIPS MPE TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN FCST
THRU 13Z. REST OF DISCUSSION OUT SOON.
SNELSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA WILL ROTATE AROUND AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIPS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...DEEPENING THE TROUGH THAT IS IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF COMPLICATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AS WELL AS GENERAL SURFACE WEAKNESSES IN PLACE
IN THE FORM OF A WEAK NEARLY-STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP CONVECTION IN
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BEST CONVECTION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
FOR TONIGHT...WEAK FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...
HOWEVER LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM ATLANTA METRO TOWARD
MONTGOMERY ALABAMA /DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION IN ALABAMA/ HAS LEFT QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. AHEAD OF
THE LINE ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER
5000 J/KG...QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAD BEEN PROGGING.
FOR THE MOST PART BEST CONVECTION WILL BE WITH THE CURRENT LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT STARTING TO SEE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP IN TENNESSEE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UP NORTH. SLIGHT RISK IS IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND SVR WATCH ALREADY OUT FOR WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ZONES. ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE 12Z KFFC
SOUNDING FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING TO KEEP DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREATS.
AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO WILL THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ALOFT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT BUT DID KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN
SOUTHERN ZONES. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP NORTH BUT LIKELIES SOUTH
IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPES PROGGED BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG SOUTH AT BEST
TOMORROW BUT GIVEN THE UNDER-FORECAST OF CAPE TODAY AM NOT CONFIDENT
THAT CAPES WILL REMAIN THAT LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT CHANCES FOR SEVERE LOOK PRETTY
LOW...AND SPC DOES NOT EVEN HAVE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GENERAL
THUNDER AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER...WITH HIGHS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS
TRENDING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT BAD FOR THE LAST
WEEKEND IN JUNE.
TDP
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
11
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND TAKES
A HOLD OF THE REGION IN THE EXTENDED. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKE STATES AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL GA IN MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY. THERE IS ALSO
A WEAK BOUNDARY LAYING ACROSS NORTH GA WHICH WILL ACT AS A CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
MOVEMENT...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD VERY SLOWLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT CONTINUING TO
AFFECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAY 7.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE CHC FOR SUNRISE STRATUS/FOG AND LIKELIHOOD OF
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES
ALOFT...HAVE ADDED A BRIEF TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VSBYS
DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MOIST SFC LAYER. SHOULD MIX OUT
BY 13-14Z. FORTUNATELY...CHC FOR TSRA SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF EAST OF ATL..BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS AND EXPECTED
LOCATION OF SFC FEATURES. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA FOR ATL METRO
TAF SITES BUT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS LATER THIS MORNING. WEST
SFC WINDS MAY GUST TO 14-18KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 90 68 87 68 / 40 40 30 30
ATLANTA 87 69 84 69 / 40 30 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 82 62 80 63 / 30 20 40 30
CARTERSVILLE 87 65 85 65 / 30 20 30 30
COLUMBUS 90 71 87 70 / 60 40 30 30
GAINESVILLE 86 67 84 68 / 40 20 30 30
MACON 89 71 88 68 / 60 50 40 30
ROME 88 65 86 65 / 20 20 40 30
PEACHTREE CITY 88 66 84 65 / 50 30 30 30
VIDALIA 88 73 86 72 / 70 60 70 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SNELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
208 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR COOL TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BUT ENOUGH SUN MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES THERE TO GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE SOUTH.
RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE RAIN UPSTREAM IN
ILLINOIS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING ADDITIONAL RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS CONTINUED HIGH POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...JUST CHANGED THE WORDING TO PERIODS OF RAIN TO INDICATE DRY
PERIODS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE STILL RELATIVELY HUMID...IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS...STRONG RIDGING WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A DEEP LOW WAS FOUND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES AND OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT BOTH INDICATE PLENTY OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TODAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
INDICATE BEST LIFT AVAILABLE AROUND 18Z AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR THAT TIME. HOWEVER THUS WILL TREND POPS
HIGHER THAN MAVMOS OR METMOS. AGAIN...A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE PRECIP AS THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW...TROUGH AXIS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S ALL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR
BELOW MAVMOS VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL AGAIN BE POPS.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH IS
QUITE REACHABLE. CAPE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS
TIME...WITH VALUES OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THUS WIDESPREAD THUNDER
IS NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC TROUGH AXIS PASSING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW FLOW TO FOCUS POP AND PRECIP...HOWEVER WILL RAISE
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS FORCING FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. AGAIN...A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...BUT RATHER LIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.
AGAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL TREND DAILY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS AND TREND DAILY
LOWS WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE USED
FOR MOST ITEMS.
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS WILL RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. KEPT CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE SYSTEM STILL IN THE VICINITY...ALTHOUGH
CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY LOW BY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST.
MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON
FRIDAY BUT AM NOT READY TO QUITE BUY INTO THIS SCENARIO YET WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN. WENT AGAINST ALLBLEND HERE AND
WENT DRY. BY SATURDAY MODELS AGREE BETTER ON RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
SO WENT LOW POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW
LOSES ITS INFLUENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SITES...LEADING TO PREDOMINANT
MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WENT PREDOMINANT SHOWERS. THERE ARE SOME STORMS
AROUND...BUT COVERAGE IS SUCH THAT A HIT AT A TERMINAL IS NOT
GUARANTEED...SO ONLY WENT VCTS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN
SHOWERS. IF A HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM MOVES THROUGH...BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE.
EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST VCSH MENTION. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND. CEILINGS LOOK TO DIP INTO AND THEN STAY IN MVFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR COOL TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BUT ENOUGH SUN MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES THERE TO GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE SOUTH.
RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE RAIN UPSTREAM IN
ILLINOIS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING ADDITIONAL RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS CONTINUED HIGH POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...JUST CHANGED THE WORDING TO PERIODS OF RAIN TO INDICATE DRY
PERIODS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE STILL RELATIVELY HUMID...IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS...STRONG RIDGING WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A DEEP LOW WAS FOUND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES AND OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT BOTH INDICATE PLENTY OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TODAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
INDICATE BEST LIFT AVAILABLE AROUND 18Z AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR THAT TIME. HOWEVER THUS WILL TREND POPS
HIGHER THAN MAVMOS OR METMOS. AGAIN...A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE PRECIP AS THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW...TROUGH AXIS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S ALL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR
BELOW MAVMOS VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL AGAIN BE POPS.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH IS
QUITE REACHABLE. CAPE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS
TIME...WITH VALUES OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THUS WIDESPREAD THUNDER
IS NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC TROUGH AXIS PASSING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW FLOW TO FOCUS POP AND PRECIP...HOWEVER WILL RAISE
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS FORCING FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. AGAIN...A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...BUT RATHER LIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.
AGAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL TREND DAILY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS AND TREND DAILY
LOWS WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW NEARBY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE...SO THINK PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY FOR NOW...BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE THEY CAN BE DROPPED AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE IF
TRENDS CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SITES...LEADING TO PREDOMINANT
MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WENT PREDOMINANT SHOWERS. THERE ARE SOME STORMS
AROUND...BUT COVERAGE IS SUCH THAT A HIT AT A TERMINAL IS NOT
GUARANTEED...SO ONLY WENT VCTS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN
SHOWERS. IF A HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM MOVES THROUGH...BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE.
EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST VCSH MENTION. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND. CEILINGS LOOK TO DIP INTO AND THEN STAY IN MVFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR COOL TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BUT ENOUGH SUN MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES THERE TO GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE SOUTH.
RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE RAIN UPSTREAM IN
ILLINOIS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING ADDITIONAL RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS CONTINUED HIGH POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...JUST CHANGED THE WORDING TO PERIODS OF RAIN TO INDICATE DRY
PERIODS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE STILL RELATIVELY HUMID...IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS...STRONG RIDGING WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A DEEP LOW WAS FOUND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES AND OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT BOTH INDICATE PLENTY OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TODAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
INDICATE BEST LIFT AVAILABLE AROUND 18Z AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR THAT TIME. HOWEVER THUS WILL TREND POPS
HIGHER THAN MAVMOS OR METMOS. AGAIN...A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE PRECIP AS THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW...TROUGH AXIS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S ALL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR
BELOW MAVMOS VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL AGAIN BE POPS.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH IS
QUITE REACHABLE. CAPE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS
TIME...WITH VALUES OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THUS WIDESPREAD THUNDER
IS NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC TROUGH AXIS PASSING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW FLOW TO FOCUS POP AND PRECIP...HOWEVER WILL RAISE
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS FORCING FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. AGAIN...A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...BUT RATHER LIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.
AGAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL TREND DAILY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS AND TREND DAILY
LOWS WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW NEARBY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE...SO THINK PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY FOR NOW...BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE THEY CAN BE DROPPED AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE IF
TRENDS CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
LOWERED CEILINGS SOME THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
STILL THINK THEY WILL END UP IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ABOVE BKN020 BY
17Z OR SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME THUNDER LIKELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER WISCONSIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ROUGHLY 291700Z-300100Z. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF ANY CONVECTION. CB BASES AROUND 025.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 THIS MORNING
BEFORE MIXING OUT AROUND MIDDAY AS SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW RATHER RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CEILINGS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR COOL TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BUT ENOUGH SUN MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES THERE TO GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE SOUTH.
RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE RAIN UPSTREAM IN
ILLINOIS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING ADDITIONAL RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS CONTINUED HIGH POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...JUST CHANGED THE WORDING TO PERIODS OF RAIN TO INDICATE DRY
PERIODS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE STILL RELATIVELY HUMID...IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS...STRONG RIDGING WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A DEEP LOW WAS FOUND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES AND OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT BOTH INDICATE PLENTY OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TODAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
INDICATE BEST LIFT AVAILABLE AROUND 18Z AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR THAT TIME. HOWEVER THUS WILL TREND POPS
HIGHER THAN MAVMOS OR METMOS. AGAIN...A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE PRECIP AS THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW...TROUGH AXIS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S ALL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR
BELOW MAVMOS VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL AGAIN BE POPS.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH IS
QUITE REACHABLE. CAPE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS
TIME...WITH VALUES OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THUS WIDESPREAD THUNDER
IS NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC TROUGH AXIS PASSING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW FLOW TO FOCUS POP AND PRECIP...HOWEVER WILL RAISE
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS FORCING FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. AGAIN...A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...BUT RATHER LIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME.
AGAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL TREND DAILY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS AND TREND DAILY
LOWS WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW NEARBY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE...SO THINK PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY FOR NOW...BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE THEY CAN BE DROPPED AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE IF
TRENDS CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER WISCONSIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ROUGHLY 291700Z-300100Z. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF ANY CONVECTION. CB BASES AROUND 025.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 THIS MORNING
BEFORE MIXING OUT AROUND MIDDAY AS SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW RATHER RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CEILINGS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/50
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
535 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
NORTHERN MONTANA ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP
SOUTH AND REACH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH MONDAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET EXIST. ON MONDAY IT WOULD BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED WITH LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET EXIST.
FURTHER EAST BETTER MOISTURE DECREASES AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
DECREASING POPS.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HILL CITY RECORD LOW FOR MONDAY
MORNING IS 52. CURRENTLY FORECASTING 54. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THAT THEY WILL REACH 52 AS BULK OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE WEST OF
THEM. ADD SOME VERY LIGHT WINDS AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THEM TO POSSIBLY BE A BIT LOWER THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. MAV
GUIDANCE GIVES THEM 53 AND IS THE LOWEST OF THE BETTER PERFORMING
MODELS...INCLUDING THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS...OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS.
HIGHS MONDAY LOW TO MID 70S IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 70S TO LOW
80S EXPECTED EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE DWINDLING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
WITH HOW COOL TO MAKE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW A COMPLICATED AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TRENDS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
HAS BEEN FOR LITTLE EAST MOVEMENT WITH A SLIGHT WEST MOVEMENT IN SOME
CASES. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO COOL AND MOISTEN UP...ESPECIALLY TO OUR
WEST.
MODELS DID FINE AT MID LEVELS WITH MAYBE MODELS SLIGHTLY TOO FAR
EAST WITH FEATURES/HEIGHTS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE UKMET...
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE HANDLING THINGS THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF/GFS ON THE SURFACE WIND FIELD. NAM AND
ECMWF WERE DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
MONDAY NIGHT...JET AXIS/LIFT LIES ROUGHLY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS SEEN ON THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE...A FURTHER WESTWARD TREND SEEMS VERY REASONABLE.
SHORTWAVE AND JET NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OUT
THERE.
AGAIN LIGHT WINDS...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER WILL
RESIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE
RATHER COOL AREA WIDE. PLAN ON GOING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.
WILL BE NEAR RECORDS. REFER TO CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE JET POSITION/LIFT
BUT LOOKS TO BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEN THERE IS A NOTICEABLE SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE NIGHT. PER REASONING ABOVE...LIKE THE MORE WESTWARD
POSITION. SO THIS MEANS WHAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT THERE IS MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE ONLY INSTABILITY...AND VERY
LITTLE AT THAT...WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OUT IN THE FAR WEST PORTION OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING.
WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL START THE DAY
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME TYPE OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY.
SO PLAN ON GOING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE...THE WINDS IN THE EAST WILL BE
AS LIGHT OR A LITTLE STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE TO DROP
TO PRETTY COOL READINGS.
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE JET THROUGH THE DAY
AS BEST LIFT FROM IT IS EITHER NEAR OUR WESTERN EDGE OR CONTINUES TO
BE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA. THERE IS A LOW AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH
LITTLE CINH. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEP DRY LAYER. SO IF
ANYTHING FORMS IT WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED WITH A LOW CHANCE OF ANY
RAIN MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE IT DRY BUT NOT
BE SURPRISED THAT WE MAY HAVE TO INSERT ISOLATED THE CLOSER WE GET
TO IT.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ALSO EASTERN UPPER LOW KEEP GETTING CLOSER. THIS MEANS COLDER
AIR/COLD POOL ALOFT STARTS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH RATHER HIGH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVING. EVEN THOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...MODELS ARE BEING PERSISTENT IN KEEPING A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AROUND. THIS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN EXPECTED.
WILL TEMPER THE WARMUP SOME.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TREND FROM YESTERDAY CONTINUES.
MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES.
EASTERN UPPER SYSTEM STILL MOVES BACK EAST. HOWEVER...IT STILL
STAYS SOME DISTANCE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. EVEN WHEN
IT DOES GET CLOSE...THE LOW STARTS TO FILL AND CONTINUES TO DO THAT
AS IT MOVES AWAY. THERE APPEARS TO NOT BE VERY MUCH MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS THE FRONT THIS SYSTEM PUSHED SOUTH KEEPS THE GULF CUT
OFF. PLUS IT APPEARS THAT IT PULLS IN MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT OR IS NOT
ABLE TO TOP INTO ANY MOISTURE. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
THAT EITHER ROTATE THROUGH IT OR ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER THE HEIGHT FIELD REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME OR SLOWLY RISES. SO
WITH WEAK FLOW...WEAK LIFT...AND LIMITED MOISTURE...DECIDED TO REMOVE
THE POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH_INIT GRIDS...ALBEIT THEY WERE ONLY
SLIGHTS. SO THE ENTIRE PERIOD IS DRY IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK AND SUBTLE NATURE OF FEATURES AND LIFT...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIPITATION. SO WILL BE
RATHER HARD TO PIN POINT THIS FAR OUT AND FEEL IT NOT APPROPRIATE TO
BROADBRUSH POPS THE WHOLE TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...
CONTINUED THE VCSH MENTION FOR KGLD TAF AND LEFT KMCK DRY AS
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL STAY WEST
OF KMCK. CEILINGS WILL DROP WITH THE SHOWERS BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING BELOW 5000 FEET. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 1
HILL CITY-52 SET IN 1987
RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 2
MCCOOK-50 SET IN 1924
HILL CITY-52 SET IN 1988
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DDT
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
321 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS HAS AMPLIFIED AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO WHILE A MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE PLAINS IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS AREA IS
JUST SKIRTING THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. SOME AREAS OF
BARTON...RENO...KINGMAN AND HARPER COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S.
BILLINGS
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY DIVE INTO THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING...WE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A
COOLER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S
AND ACTUALLY DECREASING AS TIME GOES ON. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THE END OF
JUNE/EARLY JULY.
MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. THINK THE PLACEMENT
WILL BE JUST A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS MONDAY
APPROACHES. AS SOME ENERGY APPROACHES FOR MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
BILLINGS
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
THE ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IMPACTING THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMS...IN THE 80S. EVENTUALLY A
STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THE RIDGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THE ENERGY OVER OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR DURING THE
EXTENDED WITH THE MAIN WAVE STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
INCREASE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.
BILLINGS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
EARLY-MID MORNING SATURDAY GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM RUSSELL-HUTCHINSON-WELLINGTON...ALONG ZONE OF
700-600MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS. AS SUCH HAVE INSERTED VCSH IN RSL-HUT-ICT TAFS. COULD SEE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...MODEST/GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AREAWIDE SATURDAY...SUBSIDING BY EVENING.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 90 63 82 60 / 10 10 0 0
HUTCHINSON 89 62 82 58 / 10 10 0 0
NEWTON 88 61 81 56 / 10 10 0 0
ELDORADO 87 61 81 55 / 10 10 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 90 63 83 58 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELL 88 60 83 54 / 20 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 90 60 83 55 / 20 10 0 0
SALINA 87 61 82 58 / 10 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 88 61 82 57 / 10 10 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 87 63 81 59 / 0 10 10 10
CHANUTE 85 61 80 59 / 0 10 20 10
IOLA 84 60 79 60 / 0 10 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 86 62 80 58 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1154 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
ADK
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
INCREASING 700-600MB CONVERGENCE IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY RACING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BETWEEN ABOUT 2-9AM OVERNIGHT-SAT MORNING.
LATEST RUC AND HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST POTENTIAL GENERALLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM RUSSELL TO HUTCHINSON TO
WELLINGTON. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
ADK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 80S WHILE BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOW-LYING AREAS FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND RESIDE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.
MWM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
EARLY-MID MORNING SATURDAY GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM RUSSELL-HUTCHINSON-WELLINGTON...ALONG ZONE OF
700-600MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS. AS SUCH HAVE INSERTED VCSH IN RSL-HUT-ICT TAFS. COULD SEE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...MODEST/GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AREAWIDE SATURDAY...SUBSIDING BY EVENING.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 67 89 63 84 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 65 89 61 84 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 64 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 65 86 60 82 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 65 89 61 84 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELL 64 89 59 84 / 20 20 10 0
GREAT BEND 64 90 60 84 / 20 20 10 0
SALINA 66 88 61 84 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 65 89 60 84 / 0 0 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 66 86 62 81 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 64 84 60 81 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 64 83 60 80 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 64 85 60 81 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1158 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
DID ANOTHER UPDATE TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PLOW
NORTH...MAINLY INTO AREAS THAT SAW MORE LIMITED CONVECTION EARLIER
TODAY. WOULD EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ONCE IT GETS
CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY WHERE BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRED
EARLIER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE RADAR TRENDS...WITH HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
WARRANTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN A SHARP CUTOFF BACK TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ANY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DOWNSTREAM...AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY
NORTHWEST. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP THE LOW TEMPERATURES A HAIR...WITH DEW
POINTS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
CONVECTION APPEARS TO DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. HAVE RE-ALIGNED THE
POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG A
LINE FROM MOREHEAD...TO IRVINE...TO WHITLEY CITY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THIS COMING IN CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT ITS CURRENT PACE...SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH OUR BORDER CLOSER TO BETWEEN 10 AND
10:30 PM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
500MB LOW MADE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN KY THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT HAS ALSO SET UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CREATING
A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR MOISTURE LIFT AND PRECIP. 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO IMPLYING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF KY
AND NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IN...OHIO...AND WV...WITH THE BEST
CONCENTRATION BEING OVER OHIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE GIVING
INDICATIONS OF A BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL
/DESPITE TSRA THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT/...WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TODAY ONCE LLVL AND MID LEVEL CAPS HAVE BROKEN.
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BASED ON THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A
STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PREDOMINATE SW TO NE
FLOW...STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MAKING THIS PATH THROUGH THE CWA
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LOW WILL STILL PLAY A ROLE IN SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS...OCCLUDED FRONT AND BEST LIFT WILL BEGIN EXITING TO THE EAST.
WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE MORE OF A RAIN
SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH SOME LINGERING TO ISOLATED TSRA STILL
POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...SOME VALLEY FOG COULD NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS. THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY TOMORROW /MONDAY/ HOWEVER...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
FURTHER SE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PULL THE
OCCLUDED FRONT SLIGHTLY BACK WESTWARD AND PLACE A BULLSEYE OF QVECTOR
CONV OVER NORTHERN KY...EASTERN IN...AND WESTERN OHIO...WITH
REASONABLE CONV EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THREE STATES. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH A BETTER POOL
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT MUCH HIGHER PROB OF CONVECTION AND
TSRA POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL KEEP WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING PEAK. AS WAS
THE CASE TODAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SPEED SHEAR IS GOOD...BUT THE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LACKING...SO EXPECT STORMS TO FOLLOW THE FLOW OF
THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND DROP DOWN/REDEVELOP OFTEN. THE CHALLENGE IS
THEN TRYING TO PINPOINT EXACT ONSET OF PRECIP AS WELL AS TRYING TO
BEST TRACK WHERE THE CELLS WILL DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS
MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED WESTWARD BY THE
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST HEADING
TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL WEAR DOWN THE
PLAIN/S TROUGH HELPING IT TO FILL WHILE LESSENING ITS EFFECT ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WHILE HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING LOCALLY AS
THE TROUGH GIVES WAY TO RIDGING...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH DEEP LEVEL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THE EXTENDED...MINOR
MID LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH LITTLE
FORECASTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...BUT LIKELY TO PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED RIDGING MAY BUILD IN
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA... BUT THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE POP HEAVY. ALL IN ALL...THE MODEL SIMILARITIES RAISE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT THE CR GRID LOAD WILL
PROVIDE...THOUGH AM WARY OF THE HIGHER POPS THIS WEEKEND.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RATHER DAMP...AND
INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN...FOR EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE
EXTENDED. THE DAILY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT STRAY ONES AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL AT NIGHT...AS
WELL. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EAST MAY PUSH IN
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WITH A RATHER CLOUDY AND DAMP ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...DID NOT ADJUST THE RIDGES AND VALLEYS MUCH FOR LOWS.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT ENOUGH...BUT PERHAPS TOO HIGH WITH
POPS DURING THE NIGHT AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND SO HAVE NUDGED THEM
DOWN. IN ADDITION...BUMPED MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION A VCSH ONLY AS THERE HAS BEEN
A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE ACTIVITY. AT LEAST MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT JKL AND LOZ TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LOWER DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. AT SME...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES AT VFR. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
RE-FIRE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1051 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE RADAR TRENDS...WITH HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
WARRANTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN A SHARP CUTOFF BACK TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ANY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DOWNSTREAM...AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY
NORTHWEST. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP THE LOW TEMPERATURES A HAIR...WITH DEW
POINTS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
CONVECTION APPEARS TO DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. HAVE RE-ALIGNED THE
POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG A
LINE FROM MOREHEAD...TO IRVINE...TO WHITLEY CITY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THIS COMING IN CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT ITS CURRENT PACE...SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH OUR BORDER CLOSER TO BETWEEN 10 AND
10:30 PM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
500MB LOW MADE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN KY THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT HAS ALSO SET UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CREATING
A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR MOISTURE LIFT AND PRECIP. 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO IMPLYING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF KY
AND NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IN...OHIO...AND WV...WITH THE BEST
CONCENTRATION BEING OVER OHIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE GIVING
INDICATIONS OF A BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL
/DESPITE TSRA THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT/...WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TODAY ONCE LLVL AND MID LEVEL CAPS HAVE BROKEN.
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BASED ON THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A
STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PREDOMINATE SW TO NE
FLOW...STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MAKING THIS PATH THROUGH THE CWA
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LOW WILL STILL PLAY A ROLE IN SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS...OCCLUDED FRONT AND BEST LIFT WILL BEGIN EXITING TO THE EAST.
WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE MORE OF A RAIN
SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH SOME LINGERING TO ISOLATED TSRA STILL
POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...SOME VALLEY FOG COULD NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS. THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY TOMORROW /MONDAY/ HOWEVER...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
FURTHER SE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PULL THE
OCCLUDED FRONT SLIGHTLY BACK WESTWARD AND PLACE A BULLSEYE OF QVECTOR
CONV OVER NORTHERN KY...EASTERN IN...AND WESTERN OHIO...WITH
REASONABLE CONV EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THREE STATES. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH A BETTER POOL
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT MUCH HIGHER PROB OF CONVECTION AND
TSRA POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL KEEP WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING PEAK. AS WAS
THE CASE TODAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SPEED SHEAR IS GOOD...BUT THE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LACKING...SO EXPECT STORMS TO FOLLOW THE FLOW OF
THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND DROP DOWN/REDEVELOP OFTEN. THE CHALLENGE IS
THEN TRYING TO PINPOINT EXACT ONSET OF PRECIP AS WELL AS TRYING TO
BEST TRACK WHERE THE CELLS WILL DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS
MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED WESTWARD BY THE
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST HEADING
TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL WEAR DOWN THE
PLAIN/S TROUGH HELPING IT TO FILL WHILE LESSENING ITS EFFECT ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WHILE HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING LOCALLY AS
THE TROUGH GIVES WAY TO RIDGING...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH DEEP LEVEL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THE EXTENDED...MINOR
MID LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH LITTLE
FORECASTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...BUT LIKELY TO PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED RIDGING MAY BUILD IN
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA... BUT THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE POP HEAVY. ALL IN ALL...THE MODEL SIMILARITIES RAISE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT THE CR GRID LOAD WILL
PROVIDE...THOUGH AM WARY OF THE HIGHER POPS THIS WEEKEND.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RATHER DAMP...AND
INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN...FOR EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE
EXTENDED. THE DAILY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT STRAY ONES AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL AT NIGHT...AS
WELL. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EAST MAY PUSH IN
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WITH A RATHER CLOUDY AND DAMP ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...DID NOT ADJUST THE RIDGES AND VALLEYS MUCH FOR LOWS.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT ENOUGH...BUT PERHAPS TOO HIGH WITH
POPS DURING THE NIGHT AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND SO HAVE NUDGED THEM
DOWN. IN ADDITION...BUMPED MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION A VCSH ONLY AS THERE HAS BEEN
A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE ACTIVITY. AT LEAST MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT JKL AND LOZ TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LOWER DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. AT SME...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES AT VFR. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
RE-FIRE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
CONVECTION APPEARS TO DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. HAVE RE-ALIGNED THE
POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG A
LINE FROM MOREHEAD...TO IRVINE...TO WHITLEY CITY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THIS COMING IN CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT ITS CURRENT PACE...SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH OUR BORDER CLOSER TO BETWEEN 10 AND
10:30 PM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
500MB LOW MADE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN KY THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT HAS ALSO SET UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CREATING
A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR MOISTURE LIFT AND PRECIP. 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO IMPLYING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF KY
AND NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IN...OHIO...AND WV...WITH THE BEST
CONCENTRATION BEING OVER OHIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE GIVING
INDICATIONS OF A BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL
/DESPITE TSRA THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT/...WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TODAY ONCE LLVL AND MID LEVEL CAPS HAVE BROKEN.
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BASED ON THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A
STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PREDOMINATE SW TO NE
FLOW...STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MAKING THIS PATH THROUGH THE CWA
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LOW WILL STILL PLAY A ROLE IN SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS...OCCLUDED FRONT AND BEST LIFT WILL BEGIN EXITING TO THE EAST.
WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE MORE OF A RAIN
SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH SOME LINGERING TO ISOLATED TSRA STILL
POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...SOME VALLEY FOG COULD NOT
BE OUTRULED IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS. THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY TOMORROW /MONDAY/ HOWEVER...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
FURTHER SE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PULL THE
OCCLUDED FRONT SLIGHTLY BACK WESTWARD AND PLACE A BULLSEYE OF
QVECTOR CONV OVER NORTHERN KY...EASTERN IN...AND WESTERN OHIO...WITH
REASONABLE CONV EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THREE STATES. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH A BETTER
POOL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT MUCH HIGHER PROB OF
CONVECTION AND TSRA POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY
POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME
HEATING PEAK. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SPEED
SHEAR IS GOOD...BUT THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LACKING...SO EXPECT
STORMS TO FOLLOW THE FLOW OF THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND DROP
DOWN/REDEVELOP OFTEN. THE CHALLENGE IS THEN TRYING TO PINPOINT EXACT
ONSET OF PRECIP AS WELL AS TRYING TO BEST TRACK WHERE THE CELLS WILL
DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS
MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED WESTWARD BY THE
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST HEADING
TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL WEAR DOWN THE
PLAIN/S TROUGH HELPING IT TO FILL WHILE LESSENING ITS EFFECT ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WHILE HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING LOCALLY AS
THE TROUGH GIVES WAY TO RIDGING...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH DEEP LEVEL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THE EXTENDED...MINOR
MID LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH LITTLE
FORECASTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...BUT LIKELY TO PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED RIDGING MAY BUILD IN
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA... BUT THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE POP HEAVY. ALL IN ALL...THE MODEL SIMILARITIES RAISE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT THE CR GRID LOAD WILL
PROVIDE...THOUGH AM WARY OF THE HIGHER POPS THIS WEEKEND.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RATHER DAMP...AND
INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN...FOR EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE
EXTENDED. THE DAILY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT STRAY ONES AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL AT NIGHT...AS
WELL. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EAST MAY PUSH IN
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WITH A RATHER CLOUDY AND DAMP ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...DID NOT ADJUST THE RIDGES AND VALLEYS MUCH FOR LOWS.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT ENOUGH...BUT PERHAPS TOO HIGH WITH
POPS DURING THE NIGHT AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND SO HAVE NUDGED THEM
DOWN. IN ADDITION...BUMPED MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION A VCSH ONLY AS THERE HAS BEEN
A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE ACTIVITY. AT LEAST MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT JKL AND LOZ TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LOWER DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. AT SME...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES AT VFR. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
RE-FIRE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
139 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
LATEST HRRR RUN IS SHOWING SCT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BY 16Z AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING THAT HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE IN THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS SOONER IN
THE DAY TO COVER ANY SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCT CU
DEVELOPING AND MOVING SE...SO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY INCREASE AS
WE GET LATER IN THE MORNING. OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE ON
TRACK SO ONLY MINOR TWEEKS WERE MADE FOR TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BY A FEW
HOURS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
UNCHARACTERISTIC UPPER LOW AND TROUGH ARE GOING TO START DROPPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME THIS TROUGH IS
DROPPING DOWN...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EXTRA BOOST NEEDED TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE ONE THING THAT IS HELPING TO RETARD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS SOME WARM AIR IN THE MID LAYERS BETWEEN 500
-600 HPA. THIS WILL HELP TO CAP THE STORMS SOMEWHAT AND IS WHAT IS
LIMITING THE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED VERSUS NUMEROUS. WITH THE WEAK
SHEAR AND CAPPING IN THE MID LAYERS...THIS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET
A THUNDERSTORM TODAY...MUCH LESS A SEVERE ONE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER WITH ONLY A STRAY STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.
ON SUNDAY...THE CAPPING IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED...SO THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD STILL BE ONLY
THE GARDEN VARIETY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BIT LOWER THAN
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH. WENT ABOUT ONE DEGREE COOLER THAN THE MODEL BLEND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BACKS TO THE EAST COAST TO END THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
WILL CAUSE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION SUPPLYING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY BASED WITH
WEAK TRIGGERS SO WILL ADVERTISE POPS AND SKY COVER PEAKING DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES
A LITTLE BIT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...
INCHING UP A TAD LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THESE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...MAINLY IMPACTING AS FAR SOUTH AS KJKL.
HOWEVER...A SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR
KSME/KLOZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HAVE FAR LESS
IMPACT/COVERAGE THAN THOSE TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WITHOUT SEEING
ANY ONGOING EVIDENCE OF SHRA/TSRA HEADED TOWARDS THE KSME/KLOZ TAF
SITES...ONLY WENT VCTS AT THIS TIME.
AFTER THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIE DOWN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPAWN FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AFTER 6Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ARE PEGGING KSME FOR
HAVING THE WORST VIS...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN GOING BELOW IFR
AT THIS TIME. AS FOG MIXES OUT IN THE MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE...EXPECT
BETTER CHANCES FOR TS DEVELOPMENT AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
916 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
LATEST HRRR RUN IS SHOWING SCT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BY 16Z AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING THAT HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE IN THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS SOONER IN
THE DAY TO COVER ANY SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCT CU
DEVELOPING AND MOVING SE...SO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY INCREASE AS
WE GET LATER IN THE MORNING. OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE ON
TRACK SO ONLY MINOR TWEEKS WERE MADE FOR TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BY A FEW
HOURS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
UNCHARACTERISTIC UPPER LOW AND TROUGH ARE GOING TO START DROPPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME THIS TROUGH IS
DROPPING DOWN...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EXTRA BOOST NEEDED TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE ONE THING THAT IS HELPING TO RETARD
DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS SOME WARM AIR IN THE MID LAYERS BETWEEN 500
-600 HPA. THIS WILL HELP TO CAP THE STORMS SOMEWHAT AND IS WHAT IS
LIMITING THE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED VERSUS NUMEROUS. WITH THE WEAK
SHEAR AND CAPPING IN THE MID LAYERS...THIS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET
A THUNDERSTORM TODAY...MUCH LESS A SEVERE ONE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER WITH ONLY A STRAY STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.
ON SUNDAY...THE CAPPING IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED...SO THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD STILL BE ONLY
THE GARDEN VARIETY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BIT LOWER THAN
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH. WENT ABOUT ONE DEGREE COOLER THAN THE MODEL BLEND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BACKS TO THE EAST COAST TO END THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
WILL CAUSE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION SUPPLYING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY BASED WITH
WEAK TRIGGERS SO WILL ADVERTISE POPS AND SKY COVER PEAKING DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES
A LITTLE BIT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...
INCHING UP A TAD LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTION WOULD
BE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAPPEN TO PASS OVER ANY OF OUR
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE DEEP VALLEYS TOMORROW MORNING THAT
WILL HAVE SOME VLIFR FOG. THE TAF STATIONS SHOULD NOT BE SEEING ANY
FOG THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 4Z IN
THE VALLEYS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
550 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KEEPING THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NH AND CENTRAL
MAINE NEAR AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THESE MOVE NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING ARE ALSO A CONCERN AS CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED...AND WHILE THE STORMS ARE
MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH LOWER LCLS AND BETTER 0-1 KM SHEAR...LACK
OF OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT LOW.
MUCH OF THE COAST REMAINS IN AN AREA OF CIN THANKS TO CLOUD COVER
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CELLS NOW FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF NH HAVE MUCH LESS TO WORK WITH
AND WILL BE RELYING PRIMARILY ON UPSLOPE INFLUENCES.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRACKING THIS CONECTIVE EVENT WELL AND HAVE
BASED POPS AND QPF ON ITS OUTPUT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SFC HEATING HAS PUSHED THE WARM FNT THRU MOST OF NH AND
NEARBY WRN ME. THIS HAS YIELDED BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE ACROSS
THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...MID LVL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING 40-50
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...S/WV TROF HAS RACED ACROSS THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY
LEAVING BEHIND THE BEST INSTABILITY. THE RESULT HAS BEEN
CONVECTION THAT IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE. IT HAS BEEN
TIED TO HIGH TERRAIN FOR INITIATION...AND HAS STRUGGLED AS IT
MOVES NEWD.
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING MECHANISM...FEEL THAT MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WEAKEN QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. UNTIL THEN ISOLD TO SCT STRONGER STORMS WILL BE PSBL
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DMGG WIND
GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS...AS WELL AS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LVLS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A NON-ZERO
TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY NEAR DIFFUSE CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER WRN
NH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE FLASH FLOODING. HIGH PWAT AIR
MASS REMAINS IN PLACE...AND STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THEM TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS
AGAIN AND AGAIN. THIS RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SRN NH
LAST EVENING...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS CAN/T OCCUR AGAIN THIS
EVENING.
THE REMNANT CONVECTION WILL DRIFT EWD INTO WRN ME THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY. ONSHORE FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY BRING MARINE LAYER FOG/STRATUS BACK INTO COASTAL ZONES
AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECT EVEN THOUGH SOME RIDING ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE
SFC HEATING. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP A MOIST
AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A SFC BOUNDARY
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTH LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A 8 TO 12 HOUR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT. PWATS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RIVERS AND STREAMS AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A VERY WET JUNE.
THIS JUNE IN PORTLAND IS NOW THE SIXTH WETTEST SINCE 1871.
THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OUT EARLY TUESDAY BUT IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE MORE RIDING MOVING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE.
EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE IN FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF RAIN/
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
COAST...ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE A
BIT DAYTIME SUNDAY. BACK TO IFR IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTN THEN IFR IN FOG SUNDAY NIGHT FOG.
LONG TERM...EXPECT IFR MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND IFR
MONDAY NIGHT IN FOG. MORE IFR TUESDAY AS MORE HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING WED BUT SCATTERED
IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON. IFR IN FOG WED
NIGHT. MOSTLY VFR THURSDAY EXCEPT IN ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT PENOBSCOT BAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS IS FOR SEAS AOA 5 FEET...MAINLY IN SWELLS...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND CONTRIBUTION.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
938 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL USE 30-40 POPS TO
COVER REMAINING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRIOR
TO THE APPROACH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.
RE-TIMED PRECIP ONSET SLIGHTLY BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST.
730 PM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS ATTM. CURRENTLY WATCHING CONVECTION,
WHICH WE ANTICIPATE WILL WEAKEN BETWEEN 730 PM AND 10 PM WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING.
4 PM UPDATE...
FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF IT
LOCALIZED BUT IN SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD FLOODING A FEW
DAYS AGO. ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SE TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. MORE DETAILS AT BOTTOM.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM PIT TO ALY ACROSS THE
CWA. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSE OF SFC
HEATING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELPED BY A SHORT WAVE. WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE MEANT SLOW MOVING CONVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS TO CHANGE LITTLE MONDAY TO TUESDAY. THE SFC
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES
AND MAYBE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT COMBINED WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UL JET CREATING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGE OFF OF ATLANTIC
COAST WILL MOVE WEST TIGHTENING THE CONVERGENCE OVER NY PA. WITH
HEATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. AFTER MONDAY SUBTLE FEATURES WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP. WITH NO CAP AND MARGINAL SHEAR AND CAPE
ANY SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH
KBGM/KELM EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND 02Z. MORE
SHOWERY TYPE WEATHER EXPECTED AT KITH AND VFR AT KSYR/KRME AND
KAVP FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE
WAY TO MVFR TO IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL COMBINE WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO BRING MVFR CONDS AFTER
14Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
MON AFTN THROUGH FRI...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND
EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
4 PM UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN
FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING
BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY
DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT.
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW
RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC
FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL
FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND
DELAWARE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY,
CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO
TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE
THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN
INCH IN THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ009-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP/PVN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
950 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
TONIGHT... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 2 AND
2.25 INCHES ALL THE WAY NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR GREENSBORO (WHICH
REPORTED 1.86 PW AT 00Z/THIS EVENING). AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MID/UPPER
TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A STRENGTHENING WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WAS ALSO AIDING THE STRONG SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS SC/NC INTO VA. THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN OVERTURNED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ALMOST ALL OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION STILL ONGOING ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SPREADING OUTWARD FROM THE CORE OF THE EXPANSIVE
STABILIZED ZONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT (WHERE THE
CONVECTION EARLIER PRODUCED LIFE THREATENING FLOODING OVER CHATHAM
AND ORANGE COUNTIES). IT IS ALONG THESE OUTFLOWS WHERE TRAINING
CONVECTION MAY STILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 100 OR 200 AM...
NAMELY FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT... AND BACK OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH POP FOR FAY TO RDU
TO RWI THROUGH THAT TIME... WITH LOWERING POP ELSEWHERE.
THIS IS ONLY ROUND ONE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH... EXCESSIVELY WET PW`S...
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES (LEAD ON OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
TONIGHT). CONVECTION CAN RE-FIRE QUICKLY IN THIS TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT... EVEN LATE AT NIGHT (BUT MOST LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY WITH
HEATING). REGARDLESS... TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE VERY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. -BADGETT
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...
OVERALL: OUR PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS OR BANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48-60
HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WE ARE CERTAIN
TO SEE POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES LOCALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE SLOW-MOVING AND/OR REPEATED STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT: WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN
CONSTANTLY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME... THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS (AND LIKELY LONGER) OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE... INCLUDING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE
SHARPENING UPPER JET FROM ERN TN/KY THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS... AND
REPEATED SHOTS OF DPVA AS PERTURBATIONS RIDE FROM THE NE GULF UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IN PARTICULAR... BOTH
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED-CONVECTION MODELS LATCH ONTO
THE MID LEVEL MCV OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD WHILE
DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SSW STEERING FLOW NORTHWARD TOWARD NC TONIGHT. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE (NOTED ON MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
PLOTS) NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS... MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY HOLDS
OVER CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE STAYING IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE BOTH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT... AND RISING TO 800-1600 ON MONDAY. (IN
THE NEAR TERM... MESOANALYSES SHOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-7.5 C/KM... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM... AND MLCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS.) DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VERY HIGH PW
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING IN DIRECTLY FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS... AS THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL
DEPTH OVER 4 KM) WILL ENCOURAGE WARM RAIN PROCESSES... AND THE
ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ARE AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS... EVEN IF IT ONLY RAINS
HEAVILY FOR 15-30 MINUTES IN ANY GIVEN SPOT... RAPID RAIN RATES ARE
LIKELY AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN COULD EASILY FALL... LEADING TO
RAPID RUNOFF AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT ON ANY STREETS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION... STORMS
MAY HOLD IN THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED TIME AS CELLS MAY TEND TO
PROPAGATE BACK TO THE SW... AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP RUNS
SHOWING LOWERING MBE VELOCITIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDS BECOME
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO
70-90% CHANCE EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AS BOTH STORM-SCALE AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITHIN A VOLATILE AND VERY WET COLUMN APPEAR INEVITABLE...
AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COUPLE OF RELATIVE LULLS WITH ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... IT IS DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN WHEN SUCH A LULL MIGHT OCCUR. AND EVEN DURING
TIMES OF LOWER STORM COVERAGE... INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD STILL DROP
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
CLOUDS/TEMPS: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND... AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN
WITH EITHER STRATUS AT NIGHT OR CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. THIS... IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEADY BREEZE FROM THE SSE OR SOUTH... SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH WARM NIGHTS (LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S).
WCENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A DEEP...MOISTURE SOUTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHIFTS ONLY
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS
TO EXPAND. PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES...IF NOT INCREASE ABOVE 2
INCHES ON TUESDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALSO SHIFTS WESTWARD.
MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A WAVE PASSING MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCE PRECIP...BUT GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE
OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THIS PATTERN...ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF QPF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEEP LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CARRIED OUT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AND MAY POSSIBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY IN SOME AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY /SHEAR
DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT. WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...TAILING OFF TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS NC
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....SHIFTING THE PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THUS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 916 PM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS... AND LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z... WITH GREATEST
CONFIDENCE FOR KGSO/KINT/KRDU... BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -SEC
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MONDAY... SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING.
BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND WILL NOT NECESSARILY
BE RESTRICTED TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS... WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WELL. WE SHOULD
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
DRIER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
STARTS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-
089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...SEC/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
917 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION... AND
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...
WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK... WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
OVERALL: OUR PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS OR BANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48-60
HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WE ARE CERTAIN
TO SEE POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES LOCALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE SLOW-MOVING AND/OR REPEATED STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT: WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN
CONSTANTLY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME... THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS (AND LIKELY LONGER) OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE... INCLUDING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE
SHARPENING UPPER JET FROM ERN TN/KY THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS... AND
REPEATED SHOTS OF DPVA AS PERTURBATIONS RIDE FROM THE NE GULF UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IN PARTICULAR... BOTH
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED-CONVECTION MODELS LATCH ONTO
THE MID LEVEL MCV OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD WHILE
DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SSW STEERING FLOW NORTHWARD TOWARD NC TONIGHT. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE (NOTED ON MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
PLOTS) NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS... MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY HOLDS
OVER CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE STAYING IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE BOTH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT... AND RISING TO 800-1600 ON MONDAY. (IN
THE NEAR TERM... MESOANALYSES SHOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-7.5 C/KM... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM... AND MLCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS.) DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VERY HIGH PW
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING IN DIRECTLY FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS... AS THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL
DEPTH OVER 4 KM) WILL ENCOURAGE WARM RAIN PROCESSES... AND THE
ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ARE AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS... EVEN IF IT ONLY RAINS
HEAVILY FOR 15-30 MINUTES IN ANY GIVEN SPOT... RAPID RAIN RATES ARE
LIKELY AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN COULD EASILY FALL... LEADING TO
RAPID RUNOFF AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT ON ANY STREETS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION... STORMS
MAY HOLD IN THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED TIME AS CELLS MAY TEND TO
PROPAGATE BACK TO THE SW... AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP RUNS
SHOWING LOWERING MBE VELOCITIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDS BECOME
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO
70-90% CHANCE EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AS BOTH STORM-SCALE AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITHIN A VOLATILE AND VERY WET COLUMN APPEAR INEVITABLE...
AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COUPLE OF RELATIVE LULLS WITH ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... IT IS DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN WHEN SUCH A LULL MIGHT OCCUR. AND EVEN DURING
TIMES OF LOWER STORM COVERAGE... INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD STILL DROP
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
CLOUDS/TEMPS: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND... AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN
WITH EITHER STRATUS AT NIGHT OR CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. THIS... IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEADY BREEZE FROM THE SSE OR SOUTH... SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH WARM NIGHTS (LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S) AND WARM HUMID DAYS (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S). -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...
CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A DEEP...MOISTURE SOUTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHIFTS ONLY SLOWLY
WESTWARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO
EXPAND. PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES...IF NOT INCREASE ABOVE 2
INCHES ON TUESDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALSO SHIFTS WESTWARD.
MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A WAVE PASSING MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCE PRECIP...BUT GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE
OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THIS PATTERN...ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF QPF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEEP LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CARRIED OUT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AND MAY POSSIBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY IN SOME AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY /SHEAR
DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT. WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...TAILING OFF TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS NC
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....SHIFTING THE PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THUS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 916 PM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS... AND LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z... WITH GREATEST
CONFIDENCE FOR KGSO/KINT/KRDU... BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -SEC
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MONDAY... SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING.
BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND WILL NOT NECESSARILY
BE RESTRICTED TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS... WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WELL. WE SHOULD
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
DRIER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
STARTS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-
089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...SEC/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...
THROUGH TONIGHT: RELATIVE BREAK IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS SO
FAR TODAY. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN NOTABLY LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH CURRENT MUCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG AND MLCAPE OF 500-2000
J/KG... LIKELY DUE IN PART TO COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
FROM 925-850 MB AS COMPARED TO PAST DAYS... AND LOWER PW (1.2-1.8
IN. FROM WEST TO EAST ACCORDING TO BLENDED TPW IMAGERY). WE SHOULD
SEE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RANGING FROM ISOLATED WEST TO
SCATTERED IN THE ERN CWA INTO TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC
(AND A BIT FAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A WEAK
BUT DISTINCT LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATING NORTHEAST THROUGH WRN NC/VA
AND ANOTHER PERTURBATION TRACKING UP THE NC COAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN HIGHER OVER OUR NW (AROUND 40 KTS) AND LOWER DOWN EAST
(25-30 KTS AT MOST) AND IS EXPECTED TO ACTUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER
OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL WSW WINDS BACK TO SSW AS THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE WRN OH
VALLEY. SO WITH FURTHER LOWERING OF ALREADY-MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING (LATEST RAP RUNS TAKE MLCAPE BELOW
800 J/KG OVERNIGHT)... SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN THROUGH
TONIGHT. EXPECT JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO
OVERNIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA EAST OF I-95 WHERE PW AND
DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAIN ELEVATED
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...
PERSISTENCE... AND THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. LOWS 68-73.
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN HERE WILL BE
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT TODAY
LARGELY DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST... PLACING CENTRAL NC IN A
UNIFORM SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO BACK AS WELL TO A SSW DIRECTION AS THE POTENT VORTICITY
MAXIMUM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY
RESULTING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WITHIN THIS FLOW
THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES WILL SURGE BACK TO THE NORTH AND NW
THROUGH CENTRAL NC... WITH MODELS INDICATING VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES... WHICH IS AT OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 35-45 KTS... BUT
MLCAPE SHOULD PEAK AT JUST 1000-1500 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS... THE SWRLY
UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY TO 100+ KTS FROM ERN KY
THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY... AND THE RESULTING INCREASED UPPER
DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS RIDING TO THE NNE
THROUGH NC AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SRLY JET TO 25-30 KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL BUT WIDESPREAD STRENGTHENING IN FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THIS LARGE SCALE MODERATE LIFT ACCOMPANYING A SOMEWHAT DEEP
WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH NEAR 4 KM) SHOULD ALLOW WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE... FURTHERING THE THREAT OF FLOODING WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF NUMEROUS MULTICELL CLUSTER PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SREF OUTPUT SHOWS THAT MOST OF ITS MEMBERS
GENERATE FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING... AND WHILE THIS RAINFALL BY ITSELF WOULD ORDINARILY NOT
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS... THE ANTECEDENT WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINS -- ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 --
ELEVATE THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING... ESPECIALLY OVER STANLY COUNTY
WHICH HAD FLOODING AFTER RECEIVING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN LAST
NIGHT. BUT IT`S DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE PRECISELY WHICH AREAS WILL
RECEIVE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OVER A SIZABLE AREA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW CERTAINTY AS TO THE OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER AMOUNTS... WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW...
HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL CONSIDER THIS
RISK FURTHER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND ARE ABLE TO ZERO IN
ON THE LOCATIONS MOSTLY LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN. SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHS
A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY... 83-86 WITH EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. LOWS 68-73.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...QUASI-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE
CONUS. SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND AN
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE PUMP DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A
PLUME OF PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...AND AS HIGH AS 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE GEFS...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LONGWAVE RETROGRADES A BIT. AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STRETCHING FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS NEE ENGLAND
SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MONDAY...THEN RE-ENERGIZE OVER THE OH
VALLEY BY TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS. LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
BROAD...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PERIODICALLY AIDED BY
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR QPF SHIFTING FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC TO WESTERN NC BY WEDNESDAY. SREF QPF PLUMES ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND GEFS SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH HPC 5-DAY QPF TOTALS...AND
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CONVECTION...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH DURING
THE PERIOD DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL
STILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AND AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT.
REGARDING TEMPS...THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE
MAY CONCEIVABLY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN SOME AREAS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND THE POLAR JET RETREATS TO CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
SOUTHEAST US IN A WEAKER FLOW...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING WEST FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC. WITH DRIER AIR
OVER THE CAROLINAS...CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL ACCORDINGLY RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM SATURDAY...
SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS PERSIST AT RDU/RWI/FAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT.. REACHING VFR BY 19-20Z. BESIDES SOME MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS
NEAR RWI 18Z-20Z... THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND EVENING APPEARS SMALL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THESE WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES FOR ANY MORE THAN A HALF HOUR. HOWEVER... MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR FAY/RWI AFTER 20Z WHICH COULD BRING
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC PAST NIGHTFALL... BUT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER 07Z TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR THEN
VFR BETWEEN 13Z-16Z SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NC AFTER 16Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... AS SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THESE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND ON
EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORM CLUSTERS DEVELOP. SUB-VFR STRATUS/FOG
SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND IN
STRATUS/FOG EARLY EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED... WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD A MORE VFR-DOMINANT PATTERN BY LATE WED INTO
THU. -GIH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A DEEP...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE WEATHER
PATTERN CHANGES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MODEST RISES
ON MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
HYDROLOGY...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
256 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: LATEST DATA SUPPORTS CONTINUED HIGH
RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC MAY GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A LITTLE
TODAY BEFORE MORE RAINS ARRIVE IN THE COMING FEW DAYS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NW NC/SW VA FORCED IN PART BY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID
LEVEL DPVA ALONG THE 700 MB FRONT... WHILE ELSEWHERE... MID CLOUDS
STREAKING OFF OF LAST NIGHT`S MCS OVER SRN MS/AL STREAM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS
ELEVATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 850 MB FRONT... AND WHERE ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST. THE 850 MB FRONT MADE GOOD EASTWARD
PROGRESS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVELS COOLING MARKEDLY... DENOTED
BY 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM 20C TO 16C AT GSO FROM 00Z TO 12Z...
WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT COOLING ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PW
VALUES HAVE DIPPED AS WELL IN THE WEST WITH READINGS BACK DOWN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AT GSO NOTED IN THE SOUNDING AND BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY. BUT PW REMAINS HIGH AT 1.8-2.0 INCHES EAST OF THE 850 MB
FRONT... MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-95... WHERE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS WILL BOOST WHATEVER ASCENT CAN BE ACHIEVED VIA THE
INCREASING BUOYANCY THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP CURB INSTABILITY A BIT... BUT STILL EXPECT MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACCORDING TO RECENT RAP RUNS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HERE WILL BE LOWER THAN TO THE NORTHWEST... JUST 20-25 KTS...
SO THIS MAY LIMIT ORGANIZATION SOMEWHAT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS SE OF
RALEIGH TRENDING TO LOW CHANCES FROM RALEIGH TO THE NW FOR THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST PACE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE MID CLOUDS
HAVE HINDERED HEATING. WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGHS IN THE
CENTRAL/SE CWA... WITH 84-89 AREAWIDE. THE VORTICITY MAX DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO IL/IN LATER TODAY WILL LEAD TO
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY BACKING
WINDS ALOFT OVER NC TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
RAP SHOWING MLCAPE UNDER 800 J/KG OVERNIGHT AND LARGE SCALE MODELS
SUGGESTING LITTLE RECOVERY OF HIGHER PW BACK WESTWARD UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT... SO WILL TREND TO LOW CHANCES OF LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT MAINLY EAST. LOWS 69-73. -GIH
SUNDAY:
AS ENERGY ALOFT DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING/SUNDAY... DEEP
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA... PUMPING
MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE CHANCES. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE TIED TO SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON SUNDAY. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING AS
PW`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" RANGE. HOWEVER...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE....
THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE HAMPERED A BIT BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER. THUS... GIVEN THE POSSIBLE MULTI-CELLAR BAND/CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS... EXPECT WE MAY HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 84-87 DEGREE RANGE
THANKS TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE/STORMS/CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...QUASI-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE
CONUS. SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND AN
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE PUMP DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A
PLUME OF PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...AND AS HIGH AS 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE GEFS...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LONGWAVE RETROGRADES A BIT. AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STRETCHING FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS NEE ENGLAND
SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MONDAY...THEN RE-ENERGIZE OVER THE OH VALLEY BY
TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS. LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
BROAD...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PERIODICALLY AIDED BY
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR QPF SHIFTING
FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NC TO WESTERN NC BY WEDNESDAY. SREF QPF
PLUMES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY...AND GEFS SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH HPC 5-DAY
QPF TOTALS...AND WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH DURING THE
PERIOD DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL SUPPORT
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AND AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT.
REGARDING TEMPS...THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE
MAY CONCEIVABLY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN SOME AREAS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND THE POLAR JET RETREATS TO CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
SOUTHEAST US IN A WEAKER FLOW...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING WEST FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC. WITH DRIER AIR
OVER THE CAROLINAS...CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL ACCORDINGLY RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM SATURDAY...
SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS PERSIST AT RDU/RWI/FAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT.. REACHING VFR BY 19-20Z. BESIDES SOME MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS
NEAR RWI 18Z-20Z... THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND EVENING APPEARS SMALL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THESE WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES FOR ANY MORE THAN A HALF HOUR. HOWEVER... MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR FAY/RWI AFTER 20Z WHICH COULD BRING
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC PAST NIGHTFALL... BUT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER 07Z TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR THEN
VFR BETWEEN 13Z-16Z SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NC AFTER 16Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... AS SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THESE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND ON
EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORM CLUSTERS DEVELOP. SUB-VFR STRATUS/FOG
SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND IN
STRATUS/FOG EARLY EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED... WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD A MORE VFR-DOMINANT PATTERN BY LATE WED INTO
THU. -GIH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A DEEP...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE WEATHER
PATTERN CHANGES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MODEST RISES
ON MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
HYDROLOGY...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: LATEST DATA SUPPORTS CONTINUED HIGH
RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC MAY GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A LITTLE
TODAY BEFORE MORE RAINS ARRIVE IN THE COMING FEW DAYS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NW NC/SW VA FORCED IN PART BY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID
LEVEL DPVA ALONG THE 700 MB FRONT... WHILE ELSEWHERE... MID CLOUDS
STREAKING OFF OF LAST NIGHT`S MCS OVER SRN MS/AL STREAM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS
ELEVATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 850 MB FRONT... AND WHERE ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST. THE 850 MB FRONT MADE GOOD EASTWARD
PROGRESS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVELS COOLING MARKEDLY... DENOTED
BY 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM 20C TO 16C AT GSO FROM 00Z TO 12Z...
WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT COOLING ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PW
VALUES HAVE DIPPED AS WELL IN THE WEST WITH READINGS BACK DOWN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AT GSO NOTED IN THE SOUNDING AND BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY. BUT PW REMAINS HIGH AT 1.8-2.0 INCHES EAST OF THE 850 MB
FRONT... MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-95... WHERE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS WILL BOOST WHATEVER ASCENT CAN BE ACHIEVED VIA THE
INCREASING BUOYANCY THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP CURB INSTABILITY A BIT... BUT STILL EXPECT MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACCORDING TO RECENT RAP RUNS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HERE WILL BE LOWER THAN TO THE NORTHWEST... JUST 20-25 KTS...
SO THIS MAY LIMIT ORGANIZATION SOMEWHAT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS SE OF
RALEIGH TRENDING TO LOW CHANCES FROM RALEIGH TO THE NW FOR THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST PACE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE MID CLOUDS
HAVE HINDERED HEATING. WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGHS IN THE
CENTRAL/SE CWA... WITH 84-89 AREAWIDE. THE VORTICITY MAX DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO IL/IN LATER TODAY WILL LEAD TO
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY BACKING
WINDS ALOFT OVER NC TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
RAP SHOWING MLCAPE UNDER 800 J/KG OVERNIGHT AND LARGE SCALE MODELS
SUGGESTING LITTLE RECOVERY OF HIGHER PW BACK WESTWARD UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT... SO WILL TREND TO LOW CHANCES OF LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT MAINLY EAST. LOWS 69-73. -GIH
SUNDAY:
AS ENERGY ALOFT DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING/SUNDAY... DEEP
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA... PUMPING
MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE CHANCES. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE TIED TO SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON SUNDAY. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING AS
PW`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" RANGE. HOWEVER...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE....
THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE HAMPERED A BIT BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER. THUS... GIVEN THE POSSIBLE MULTI-CELLAR BAND/CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS... EXPECT WE MAY HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 84-87 DEGREE RANGE
THANKS TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE/STORMS/CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 308 AM SATURDAY...
AN ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH-TN VALLEYS
WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH PLENTY OF
WARM TROPICAL AIR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES PROJECTED TO RANGE IN THE
2-2.25 INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS ALONG WITH
A VORTICITY AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH-TO-NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC
WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND FIELD AND THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY MOVE REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME
LOCATION. THIS OCCURRENCE MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND ABUNDANT SHOWERS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 308 AM SATURDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT
OF THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS AS SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE AIR MASS
DRIES OUT AND A MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF DECREASE POPS..MOST NOTABLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUN WILL
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM SATURDAY...
SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS PERSIST AT RDU/RWI/FAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT.. REACHING VFR BY 19-20Z. BESIDES SOME MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS
NEAR RWI 18Z-20Z... THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND EVENING APPEARS SMALL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THESE WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES FOR ANY MORE THAN A HALF HOUR. HOWEVER... MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR FAY/RWI AFTER 20Z WHICH COULD BRING
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC PAST NIGHTFALL... BUT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER 07Z TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR THEN
VFR BETWEEN 13Z-16Z SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NC AFTER 16Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... AS SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THESE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND ON
EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORM CLUSTERS DEVELOP. SUB-VFR STRATUS/FOG
SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND IN
STRATUS/FOG EARLY EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED... WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD A MORE VFR-DOMINANT PATTERN BY LATE WED INTO
THU. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: LATEST DATA SUPPORTS CONTINUED HIGH
RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC MAY GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A LITTLE
TODAY BEFORE MORE RAINS ARRIVE IN THE COMING FEW DAYS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NW NC/SW VA FORCED IN PART BY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID
LEVEL DPVA ALONG THE 700 MB FRONT... WHILE ELSEWHERE... MID CLOUDS
STREAKING OFF OF LAST NIGHT`S MCS OVER SRN MS/AL STREAM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS
ELEVATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 850 MB FRONT... AND WHERE ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST. THE 850 MB FRONT MADE GOOD EASTWARD
PROGRESS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVELS COOLING MARKEDLY... DENOTED
BY 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM 20C TO 16C AT GSO FROM 00Z TO 12Z...
WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT COOLING ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PW
VALUES HAVE DIPPED AS WELL IN THE WEST WITH READINGS BACK DOWN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AT GSO NOTED IN THE SOUNDING AND BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY. BUT PW REMAINS HIGH AT 1.8-2.0 INCHES EAST OF THE 850 MB
FRONT... MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-95... WHERE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS WILL BOOST WHATEVER ASCENT CAN BE ACHIEVED VIA THE
INCREASING BUOYANCY THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP CURB INSTABILITY A BIT... BUT STILL EXPECT MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACCORDING TO RECENT RAP RUNS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HERE WILL BE LOWER THAN TO THE NORTHWEST... JUST 20-25 KTS...
SO THIS MAY LIMIT ORGANIZATION SOMEWHAT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS SE OF
RALEIGH TRENDING TO LOW CHANCES FROM RALEIGH TO THE NW FOR THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST PACE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE MID CLOUDS
HAVE HINDERED HEATING. WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGHS IN THE
CENTRAL/SE CWA... WITH 84-89 AREAWIDE. THE VORTICITY MAX DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO IL/IN LATER TODAY WILL LEAD TO
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY BACKING
WINDS ALOFT OVER NC TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
RAP SHOWING MLCAPE UNDER 800 J/KG OVERNIGHT AND LARGE SCALE MODELS
SUGGESTING LITTLE RECOVERY OF HIGHER PW BACK WESTWARD UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT... SO WILL TREND TO LOW CHANCES OF LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT MAINLY EAST. LOWS 69-73. -GIH
SUNDAY:
AS ENERGY ALOFT DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING/SUNDAY... DEEP
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA... PUMPING
MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE CHANCES. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE TIED TO SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON SUNDAY. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING AS
PW`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" RANGE. HOWEVER...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE....
THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE HAMPERED A BIT BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER. THUS... GIVEN THE POSSIBLE MULTI-CELLAR BAND/CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS... EXPECT WE MAY HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 84-87 DEGREE RANGE
THANKS TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE/STORMS/CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 308 AM SATURDAY...
AN ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH-TN VALLEYS
WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH PLENTY OF
WARM TROPICAL AIR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES PROJECTED TO RANGE IN THE
2-2.25 INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS ALONG WITH
A VORTICITY AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH-TO-NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC
WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND FIELD AND THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY MOVE REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME
LOCATION. THIS OCCURRENCE MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND ABUNDANT SHOWERS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 308 AM SATURDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT
OF THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS AS SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE AIR MASS
DRIES OUT AND A MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF DECREASE POPS..MOST NOTABLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUN WILL
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM SATURDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN (KGSO/KIN/KRDU/KRWI)... WITH PATCHY MVFR
CIGS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS (KFAY). EXPECT THIS CIGS TO
GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AT THE LATEST... WITH
PERHAPS KFAY HANGING ONTO SUB-VFR CIGS THE LONGEST... WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE GREATEST. WRT PRECIP CHANCES TODAY... EXPECT
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST/EAST AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH VCSH
AT KFAY ONLY... WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS... AS MOISTURE IS THE GREATEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH... EXPECT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TODAY...
WILL JUST INTRODUCE A SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE 003-008 RANGE AT 09Z
SUNDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY... DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SUB-VFR
SHOWERS AND STORMS (PRIMARILY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT)
AND SHALLOW EARLY-MORNING IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
639 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SITS WEST OF THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY BREAK COME
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH MORE LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION WAS POSTED
IN ERROR. THE CORRECT NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW:
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. COMBINATION OF THE H/5 TOUGH ALOFT AND A SURFACE PATTERN
CONSISTING OF A STALLED FRONT TO OUR WEST AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TO
OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND WARM
AIRMASS. P/W VALUES WILL EQUAL OR EXCEED 2 INCHES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID DAY.
BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE FROM LOCALIZED FLOODING PRODUCED BY
HEAVY RAIN AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS COULD POP UP AT ANY
TIME...EXPECT BEST TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM INITIATION STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
COLUMN. ANY PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.
LEANED TOWARDS THE TOP-PERFORMING GFS MOS FOR TODAYS
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST PLACES AND MID 80S
AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCAL AREA
WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THIS TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST TROPICAL
AIR. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REACH UP TO 30 TO 40 KTS PUMPING THIS
WARM MOIST AIR IN. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE AROUND
THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND DECENT JET DYNAMICS WILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY
WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TIME. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS TO CREATE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
JUNE MAY FINISH UP WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE
MONTH.
IN WILMINGTON...10.34 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS MONTH WHICH
IS 2.53 INCHES UNDER THE JUNE RECORD OF 12.87" (1962).
IN FLORENCE...7.89 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS MONTH WHICH IS
1.30INCHES UNDER THE RECORD OF 9.29" (1961).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST
AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BUILD WESTWARD PROVIDING INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ALTHOUGH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE
FROM ABOUT 4K FT UPWARDS. BASICALLY EXPECT FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DEWPOINT TEMPS CONTINUE UP AROUND 70 AND
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL EXISTS. THEREFORE MAY SEE LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING LIFTING INTO STRATOCU...BUT EXPECT MORE
LIMITED SHWR ACTIVITY THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LIGHTENING UP AS GRADIENT WEAKENS AS CENTER
OF HIGH MOVES CLOSER. TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS PUSHING 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MCS TO OUR NORTH MAY SPAWN SOME CONVECTION MOVING INTO
LBT AND PERHAPS FLO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. TOWARD
MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS WANING A
BIT HOWEVER AS THE HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF A BIT.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SATURDAY...EXPECT INTERMITTENT CONVECTION MOST OF
THE DAY. SOME DRYING ALOFT IS INDICATED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...HOWEVER THIS MAY JUST ALLOW MORE HEATING FOR POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION WAS POSTED
IN ERROR. THE CORRECT NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW:
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM. A TIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 20 TO
25 KT RANGE MOST PLACES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN DEEP TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 7 FT
HIGH. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH WNA SHOWING A SLIGHT DROP IN WINDS AND SEAS SUN
AFTN FOLLOWED BY A SPIKE UP BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WIDESPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD CREATING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISBYS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX MID TO LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST PUSHES WESTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
INITIALLY TO MAINTAIN 15 TO 20 KTS WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND
BACKING OF WINDS TO THE S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WNA SHOWS SEAS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TUES MORNING...MAINTAINING 3 TO 5 FT
THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/DL
MARINE...REK/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
333 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS WEST OF THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY BREAK COME
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH MORE LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SURFACE
HEATING AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE OFF
WHILE MOVING QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE. ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOWED A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TODAY.
LAPSE RATES WERE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT A COUPLE OF MAJOR
TRIGGERS IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT COULD ACT TO
SPARK STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. SPC HAS AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK
CATEGORY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING FROM
DAMAGING WINDS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING JUICY COLUMN AND
POTENTIAL FOR WET-MICROBURSTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT
ALSO...ESPECIALLY UNDER TRAINING STORMS.
EXPECT SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER GEORGIA IS HEADED IN THIS
GENERAL DIRECTION AND COULD BRUSH OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER. THIS WILL BE ONE OF OUR PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
AND SHOULD BE JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. MODEL CONSENSUS HANGS IT UP
JUST ALONG THE COAST THOUGH...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH MINIMUMS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCAL AREA
WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THIS TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST TROPICAL
AIR. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REACH UP TO 30 TO 40 KTS PUMPING THIS
WARM MOIST AIR IN. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE AROUND
THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND DECENT JET DYNAMICS WILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY
WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TIME. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS TO CREATE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
JUNE MAY FINISH UP WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE
MONTH.
IN WILMINGTON...10.34 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS MONTH WHICH
IS 2.53 INCHES UNDER THE JUNE RECORD OF 12.87" (1962).
IN FLORENCE...7.89 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS MONTH WHICH IS
1.30INCHES UNDER THE RECORD OF 9.29" (1961).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST
AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BUILD WESTWARD PROVIDING INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ALTHOUGH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE
FROM ABOUT 4K FT UPWARDS. BASICALLY EXPECT FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DEWPOINT TEMPS CONTINUE UP AROUND 70 AND
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL EXISTS. THEREFORE MAY SEE LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING LIFTING INTO STRATOCU...BUT EXPECT MORE
LIMITED SHWR ACTIVITY THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LIGHTENING UP AS GRADIENT WEAKENS AS CENTER
OF HIGH MOVES CLOSER. TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS PUSHING 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MCS TO OUR NORTH MAY SPAWN SOME CONVECTION MOVING INTO
LBT AND PERHAPS FLO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. TOWARD
MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS WANING A
BIT HOWEVER AS THE HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF A BIT.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SATURDAY...EXPECT INTERMITTENT CONVECTION MOST OF
THE DAY. SOME DRYING ALOFT IS INDICATED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...HOWEVER THIS MAY JUST ALLOW MORE HEATING FOR POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SWLY WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT...WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUR NC WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT DOWN SOUTH. RAISING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR NC WATERS WITH THIS PACKAGE...AND EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENTS FOR OUR SC WATERS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN DEEP TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 7 FT
HIGH. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH WNA SHOWING A SLIGHT DROP IN WINDS AND SEAS SUN
AFTN FOLLOWED BY A SPIKE UP BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WIDESPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD CREATING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISBYS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX MID TO LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST PUSHES WESTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
INITIALLY TO MAINTAIN 15 TO 20 KTS WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND
BACKING OF WINDS TO THE S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WNA SHOWS SEAS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TUES MORNING...MAINTAINING 3 TO 5 FT
THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRED AT 1000 PM. HOWEVER... ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SET UP NEW CONVECTION ALONG THE OLD W-E
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CLT TO SW OF RDU IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY IN STANLY COUNTY WHERE THE
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW... CURRENTLY 2 INCHES IN 2 HOURS. THIS
WILL EASILY BE EXCEEDED WITH THE TRAINING OF SEVERAL LARGE STORMS
OVER THAT REGION BEFORE 1200 AM. RAINFALL RATES ARE NEARLY 2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THESE STORMS. THIS MAY BECOME A VERY SERIOUS THREAT TO
LIFE AND PROPERTY IF THE CELLS REMAIN AS INTENSE AS THEY ARE
CURRENTLY... WITH SEVERAL MORE TO GO... ONE OVER WESTERN STANLY...
ONE OVER CABARRUS... AND THE LAST IN THE SERIES OVER CHARLOTTE.
EVERYONE IN STANLY COUNTY SHOULD TAKE THIS FLOOD THREAT VERY
SERIOUSLY AND HEAD ALL WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS. REMEMBER FLOODING IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE AT NIGHT. DO NOT DRIVE IN THIS SITUATION.
FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
W-E OUTFLOW FROM STANLY EAST THROUGH MONTGOMERY... PORTIONS OF
CHATHAM... LEE... WAKE... AND POSSIBLY DURHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 200
AM... DUE TO THE TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OLD
OUTFLOW. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIR GRIP ON THIS SITUATION...
WITH THE TRAINING OF STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE FAY AND RDU AREAS...
BUT FOCUSED ON STANLY... MONTGOMERY... NW MOORE THROUGH 1200 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WARM... DAMP... AND HUMID.
WE`LL REMAIN BENEATH CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAST CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH MARKEDLY LOWER SURFACE
THETA-E VALUES PUSHING INTO THE WRN FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TO SEE
SOME LINGERING PATCHY SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING... BUT WEAK TO ABSENT DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND TYPICALLY LOWER INSTABILITY AND LINGERING CINH THAT
TIME OF DAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF ANY CONVECTION DURING
THE MORNING... AND THE WRN PIEDMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MIDDAY. WITH THE INJECTION OF ENERGY DOWN ITS WEST SIDE... THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG STRONGLY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO IN
AND THE WRN OH VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... CAUSING A BACKING OF
MID LEVEL WINDS OVER NC TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AND BUILDING OF THE ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE WESTWARD
TOWARD COASTAL NC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LEAD TO DISSIPATION OF THE
ERN NC SURFACE TROUGH WHILE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL ZONE
STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PW VALUES REBOUND BACK WESTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NC WITH AN ATTENDING RESURGENCE OF HIGHER 850 MB
THETA-E. THE NAM/GFS HANDLE THEIR PRECIP FIELDS DIFFERENTLY WITH THE
NAM HOLDING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR EAST AND WEST UNTIL VERY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS CONVECTION WITH
HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1
CORRIDOR... WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE 2+ INCH
PRECIP WATER VALUES SPREAD FROM THE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH ALL OF
CENTRAL NC. THE GFS`S PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A MORE REASONABLE
SCENARIO... WITH MORE SCATTERED DISCRETE CELLS IN THE FAR WRN
PIEDMONT (WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HENCE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT LOWER) TRENDING TO NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS ROUGHLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM ROXBORO TO SILER CITY TO WADESBORO (ATTENDING
THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND PW). THE BACKED STEERING FLOW AND
EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL BRING ABOUT A CONCERN
FOR TRAINING ECHOES AND LOCALIZED URBAN AND STREET FLOODING AND
SWOLLEN CREEKS STARTING SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SOUTHERLY JET TO OUR NNW. AFTER MUCH COORDINATION AND
DISCUSSION... WILL NOT GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS YET... AS
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE IN THE ERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE MORE SANDY SOIL AND
FLATTER TERRAIN RESULTS IN SLOWER RUNOFF... BUT URBAN AREAS WILL
REMAIN VULNERABLE TO SOME FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE
AND CONSIDER THIS RISK AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS ALONG/EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE COVERING THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT TREMENDOUS BUT DOES IMPROVE
FURTHER TO 25-35 KTS... ALTHOUGH MODEL MLCAPE VALUES ONLY PEAK AT
800-1500 J/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...
SUGGESTING PERHAPS A MORE MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILE THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY. POTENTIALLY WEAKER UPDRAFTS ESPECIALLY ALOFT COULD LOWER THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS... BUT AGAIN THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO
FREEZING DEPTH NEAR 4 KM) AND PW NEAR 2 INCHES (WHICH IS NEARLY 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH
WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING. HIGHS 87-91. LOWS 68-72. -GIH
THE WELL-ADVERTISED DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT WILL HAVE BECOME
STRONGLY AMPLIFIED AND ESTABLISHED OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
PERIOD...BETWEEN A PAIR OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGES OVER WESTERN N.
AMERICA AND THE WESTERN N. ATLANTIC. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LEE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE DIMINISHED FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...THE PATTERN OF PERTURBED SW TO SSW DEEP LAYER FLOW
WILL DRIVE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS...AMIDST A DEEP
MOIST AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND TWO
INCHES...SUNDAY AND LIKELY THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS...TO PERHAPS 35 KTS OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL BANDS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS...AND TO A GREATER EXTENT LOCALIZED
FLOODING OWING THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW/S. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
80S...AND LOWER 70S FOR LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
CONTINUED...IF NOT INCREASINGLY...WET. THE LARGE SCALE
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE CONFIGURATION ACROSS NOAM WILL GRADUALLY
RETROGRESS...WITH THE TROUGH DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE MS
VALLEY...THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK. THE PRESENCE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...INCLUDING CENTRAL NC...IN
A PATTERN OF PERTURBED AND DEEPLY MOIST SW TO SSW FLOW ALOFT -
FAVORABLE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PARTICULARLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD WILL FAVOR AN
INCREASING RISK OF FLOODING WITH EACH DAY THAT PASSES...WITH
OTHERWISE AN OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION-LOADED WET MICROBURST FROM
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL STORM MODES DRIVEN BY GENERALLY 20-25
KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW. ASIDE FROM THE 00Z/28TH ECMWF...THE CONSENSUS
OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN...INDICATES THE PATTERN RETROGRESSION WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING TO EXPAND WESTWARD SUFFICIENTLY TO
LESSEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/COVERAGE - FROM NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED - OVER EASTERN NC...INCLUDING THE RAH COASTAL PLAIN...BY
MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S...WITH LOWS 70 TO
75.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND SHOULD
BE TO THE EAST OF ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES BY 07Z. AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI
EXPECT WE WILL AGAIN SEE SOME LOW STATUS (IFR/MVFR) DEVELOP AFTER BY
AROUND 08Z OR SO... THEN LIFTING/DISSIPATING AGAIN BY AROUND 14Z OR
SO. FURTHER WEST... A BIT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (KGSO/KINT). HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE MOIST... WHICH IS ALLOWING IFR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP. GIVEN THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL
FEATURE TO SCOUR OUT THE LIFR STATUS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK... EXPECT
IT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z OR SO AS WELL. THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT
HANDLED WELL BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE... SO HAVE ELECTED TO START THE
TAF FORECAST WITH A TEMPO GROUP... KEEPING IN MIND THAT WE MAY NEED
TO INSERT A PREVAILING GROUP AND EXTEND IT OUT TO 14Z OR SO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAYBE
EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING). WILL INCLUDE VCTS IN THE KFAY AND
KRWI TAF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY... WITH NO MENTION AT THIS
TIME FOR THE OTHER SITES. AT KGSO AND KINT... CONFIDENCE WRT SEEING
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LOWEST... THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR
MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z SUNDAY...WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS... THE RISK FOR DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS (PRIMARILY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT) AND SHALLOW EARLY-MORNING IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
134 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS WEST OF THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS AND UPSTREAM RADAR COMPOSITES SUGGEST POPS
NEED TO BE LOWERED ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA AS THE STRONG UPWARD MOTION WITHIN THE MCS HAS TO BE
BALANCED BY CORRESPONDING SUBSIDENT MOTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY.
THERE ARE STILL THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT JUST WEST OF ANDERSON
SC...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE IT COULD
CONCEIVABLY AFFECT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
THE NORTH CAROLINA MCS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF MOST OF MY FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SCRAPING BY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
ROBESON COUNTY IN A FEW HOURS. THE POPS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST
ARE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND ARE FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW
CONVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM
730 PM FOLLOWS...
A ZONE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES HAS BROUGHT A
TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY. THIS LULL SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS A MODEST SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NC INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ALABAMA PUSHES EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS.
RADAR SHOWS A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA FROM THE VA BORDER SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SOUTHERN PINES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS PROGRESSING MAINLY EAST AND SHOULD MOVE JUST NORTH OF
LUMBERTON BETWEEN 8-9 PM...BUT COULD SCRAPE THE NORTHERN HALVES OF
BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 9-11 PM. WHAT I AM MORE CONCERNED
ABOUT IS NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT. LIKE LAST NIGHT
THE HOURLY HRRR RUNS ARE NOT INITIALIZING PERFECTLY BUT MOST PAINT A
STORY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION
OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING...SPREADING TO THE COAST
OF BOTH SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MY TIMING
ON THIS CONVECTION IS DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MY
12-HOUR POPS ARE NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT: 50-70 PERCENT...
HIGHEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE CITY TO CONWAY TO WHITEVILLE AND
WILMINGTON.
CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL HAVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT IS
BOLSTERED BY NOTING HOW LARGE FORECAST CAPE VALUES ARE ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS. EVEN ACCOUNTING FOR A STABLE SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER...
LIFTING A PARCEL FROM 925 MB LATE THIS EVENING OVER FLORENCE ON A
RECENT RUC MODEL RUC SHOWS CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG WITH NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH HAD FALLEN TO 1.6 TO 1.7
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD RISE BACK TO 2+ INCHES AS THE 850 AND
700 MB LAYER MOISTENS OVERNIGHT.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 73-75 INLAND WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
THIS IS NOT COINCIDENTALLY VERY NEAR OUR CURRENTLY OBSERVED
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...JUNE IS GOING TO FINISH PRETTY MUCH HOW IT HAS
BEEN ALL MONTH...WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED. IN FACT...THE WEEKEND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN WETTER THAN MOST OF THE DAYS THIS
MONTH...AND THE LOCAL CLIMATE STATIONS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED ALL
TIME-MONTHLY RAINFALL RECORDS FOR JUNE BEFORE THE PERIOD COMES TO AN
END.
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PATTERN AT 500MB PERSISTS AND AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND A
DEEPENING TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE OH VLY. THIS AMPLIFICATION
FORCES A STALL IN THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER...AND DRIVES THE TROUGH BACK
TO THE SW...CREATING HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF -3 SD`S ACROSS THE TN VLY.
WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS DISPLACED WEST OF THE
CAROLINAS...THIS KEEPS DEEP SW FLOW ONGOING IN THIS AREA...AND PWATS
RISE TO 2 INCHES OR MORE...AROUND 2 SD`S ABOVE NORMAL. 5H TROUGH TO
THE WEST WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE CAROLINAS CREATES AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AS WELL
SUGGEST A VERY WET PERIOD AHEAD FOR THE WKND.
700MB TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA SHARPENS...KEEPING THE GOMEX WIDE
OPEN AND HELPING TO ADVECT TREMENDOUS THETA-E RIDGING FROM 925MB
THROUGH 700MB. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS LENGTHEN AND POINT
RIGHT INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH STREAMLINES SUGGESTING
MORE AND MORE OF THAT GULF TAP. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE TROUGH
SHARPENS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...200MB JETTING INCREASES WITH THE
SOUTHEAST ALIGNING BENEATH THE RRQ WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK
500MB SHORTWAVES TO HELP DRIVE LIFT OVER THE AREA. WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE EXTREME...MLCAPE OF 800-1200 J/KG WITH
LI`S AROUND -4...AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE THANKS TO
13000-14000 FT OF WARM CLOUD DEPTH...ENOUGH LIFT WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS EVEN THOUGH HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT BOTH DAYS.
SO THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AN EXTENDED WET
PERIOD...AND WPC HAS 1-3" OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS A REGION THAT
HAS SEEN 150-300% OF NORMAL RAINFALL THE PAST TWO WEEKS...SO ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY AREAL FLOOD WATCHES SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD...MEANING CWA-BASIN RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCHES AS
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DEVELOPS IN TIME.
ONE FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE UPCOMING RAINFALL. THE CLIMATE STATIONS OF
FLORENCE, SC AND WILMINGTON, NC ARE BOTH APPROACHING MONTHLY RECORDS
FOR JUNE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE RECORDS ARE ECLIPSED
BEFORE JULY BEGINS:
AT WILMINGTON...10.34" HAS FALLEN SO FAR...2.53" BEHIND THE JUNE
RECORD OF 12.87" (1962).
AT FLORENCE...7.89" HAS FALLEN THIS MONTH...1.30" BEHIND THE RECORD
OF 9.29" (1961).
SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM...BUT TEMPS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH
AFTNS...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY WITHIN SHOWERS/TSTMS. LOWS
AT NIGHT WILL FALL TO 70 OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH MEANS A
CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WPC HAS LIKELY POPS FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH LOWER
VALUES FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE AS
THE RIVER OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE
PATTERN WITH SLIGHT RIDGING BUILDING IN WHICH WARRANTS A SLIGHT
DOWNTURN IN POPS. WITH THE PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STABLE WITH HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE FOR THE
SAME REASON.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MCS TO OUR NORTH MAY SPAWN SOME CONVECTION MOVING INTO
LBT AND PERHAPS FLO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. TOWARD
MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS WANING A
BIT HOWEVER AS THE HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF A BIT.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SATURDAY...EXPECT INTERMITTENT CONVECTION MOST OF
THE DAY. SOME DRYING ALOFT IS INDICATED AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...HOWEVER THIS MAY JUST ALLOW MORE HEATING FOR POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 AM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO
THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE IS HAVING LIMITED SUCCESS
PUSHING WESTWARD INTO WHAT HAS BECOME (FOR THE SEASON) A VERY STRONG
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. BAROMETRIC PRESSURES ARE SURPRISINGLY
LOW FOR LATE JUNE...29.67 INCHES HERE IN WILMINGTON AS I TYPE. THE
PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH A HEALTHY FLOW OF SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS WIND HAS BUILT SEAS TO
7 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...6 FT AT THE NEW WILMINGTON
"HARBOR" BUOY JUST SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER...AND 5
FT AT THE OCEAN CREST PIER WAVE GAUGE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WAS TO INCREASE NEARSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE REPORT FROM THE OCEAN CREST PIER REPORT.
SHOWERS JUST INLAND FROM GEORGETOWN DEVELOPED A COUPLE HOURS AGO
ALONG THE SEABREEZE...AND THESE SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME INTO NEXT WEEK. LARGE BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLED INLAND...WILL KEEP A
PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS DRIVES SW WINDS UP TO 20-25
KTS SATURDAY...AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THESE WINDS...AND 4-7 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD TSTMS BOTH DAYS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAINFALL...CAUSING
SEVERELY RESTRICTED VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...STEADY STATE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL
COMMUNITY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS
PROBABLY CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE. PATTERN WEAKENS
EVER SO SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY WHICH TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
SPEEDS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS 3-5 FEET MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO A
SCEC HEADLINE IS POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS DROP TO 2-4 FEET
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
AVIATION...REK/DL
MARINE...REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1213 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN ISOLATED SHOWER JUST SOUTH OF
KJMS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WORKING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. THE FIRST
IS NEAR BRANDON MANITOBA...WITH THE SECOND JUST WEST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. NAM/GFS/HRRR ALL GENERATE SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS IT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO INCREASE
BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE FAR NORTH AND PROGRESS SOUTH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
A MOSAIC OF AREA RADARS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS PER
THE 29.00Z NAM...BUT THOSE CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WITH MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS /
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE STORMS ARE IN THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY (1000 J/KG)
WHILE INSTABILITY QUICKLY DECREASES IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SHOWS THE INSTABILITY DECREASING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...AND LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS QUICKLY DECREASING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW SHOWERS INDICATED ALONG LAKE
SAKAKAWEA.
BEST CAPE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE
BEST SHEAR IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. 28 JUNE 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AT BISMARCK AND ESPECIALLY
MINOT AND JAMESTOWN WITH ONLY A VERY THIN MOISTURE LAYER. WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE THAN A SHOWER.
CAPE VALUES ARE LIMITED BUT GOOD SPEED SHEAR EXISTS...WITH 50 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
RADAR AND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS WILL BE BASED ON LATEST FRAMES.
ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER.
SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY. THE EXCEPTIONS
BEING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACTS TO SHARPEN THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALLOW COOLER TEMPERATURE TO ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA.
AND FINALLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH MORE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM BEGINS AS STRONG
MERIDIONAL FLOW...WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY - WITH A
FEW PERIODS OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER WITH SOME
INSTABILITY ARISING FROM EITHER A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW OR DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY THAT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.
THE GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD IN
THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. THUS
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS WITH A PATTERN CHANGE POSSIBLE AS THE
RIDGE/TROUGH STRUCTURE BREAKS DOWN. KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. HOWEVER KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WILL BE
LOCATED IN AN AREA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED A VCSH AND WILL WATCH THE
RADAR FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS MENTIONING
ANYTHING PREDOMINANT. SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 5KFT AND
10KFT WILL BE THE RULE AT THE ABOVE MENTIONED AERODROMES...WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR KISN/KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
323 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST
DAYS OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE
EASTERN GR LAKES...WITH ANY NUMBER OF MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND
IT. VIZ SHOTS SHOW A COUPLE OF AREAS OF ENHANCED CU. THE FIRST IS
WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC
TROF FROM NEAR BGM WSW INTO NW PA. THE OTHER IS ARCING UP OUT OF
SW PA INTO THE LAURELS...AND SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TONGUE OF
HIGHER CAPE THAT EXTENDS OUT OF OHIO INTO CENTRAL PA.
RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...WHICH ARE SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR YET ANOTHER DAY OF POP-UP CONVECTION AS SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO
DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAP SHOWS BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30KT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DROP
OUT OF SOME OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED-STRONGER STORMS.
ANY RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT...AND QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY 02-04Z.
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...WILL MEAN WINDS BECOME NEAR CALM WITH INTERVALS OF
CLEARING DEVELOPING. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD DROP TO UNDER A MILE FOR A
TIME AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MTNS...TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65F THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND
SE PENN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE RELATIVE RESPITE FROM THE HIGH HUMIDITY WE HAVE BEEN ENJOYING
WILL FADE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES...ALLOWING THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR TO BEGIN MAKING
INROADS BACK OVER THE FCST AREA.
ONCE AGAIN IT SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOISTURE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERALL COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR COULD EASILY OCCUR
WITHIN THE SLOW MOVING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER BASIN
AVERAGE AMTS SHOULD BE 0.50 INCH OR LESS.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW...TO PERHAPS SVRL DEG F
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WORK WESTWARD
BY LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CUT DOWN THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO TUE. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
MAIN CHANGE TO PACKAGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME...AND TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP UNDER THE STRONG LATE JUNE
SUNSHINE...BUT AS OF 2PM STILL NO LIGHTNING OVER MY FCST AREA.
MOST SITES ARE VFR AND WILL REMAIN SO EXCEPT WHILE BEING AFFECTED
BY THE POP UP CONVECTION THAT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH DAILY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE PM HOURS...AND PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-THU...VFR WITH AREAS OF LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST
DAYS OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE
EASTERN GR LAKES...WITH ANY NUMBER OF MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND
IT. VIZ SHOTS SHOW A COUPLE OF AREAS OF ENHANCED CU. THE FIRST IS
WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC
TROF FROM NEAR BGM WSW INTO NW PA. THE OTHER IS ARCING UP OUT OF
SW PA INTO THE LAURELS...AND SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TONGUE OF
HIGHER CAPE THAT EXTENDS OUT OF OHIO INTO CENTRAL PA.
RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
AREAS...WHICH ARE SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR YET ANOTHER DAY OF POP-UP CONVECTION AS SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO
DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAP SHOWS BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30KT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DROP
OUT OF SOME OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED-STRONGER STORMS.
ANY RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT...AND QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY 02-04Z.
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...WILL MEAN WINDS BECOME NEAR CALM WITH INTERVALS OF
CLEARING DEVELOPING. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD DROP TO UNDER A MILE FOR A
TIME AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MTNS...TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65F THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND
SE PENN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE RELATIVE RESPITE FROM THE HIGH HUMIDITY WE HAVE BEEN ENJOYING
WILL FADE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES...ALLOWING THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR TO BEGIN MAKING
INROADS BACK OVER THE FCST AREA.
ONCE AGAIN IT SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOISTURE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERALL COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR COULD EASILY OCCUR
WITHIN THE SLOW MOVING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER BASIN
AVERAGE AMTS SHOULD BE 0.50 INCH OR LESS.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW...TO PERHAPS SVRL DEG F
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A TREND TOWARD A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWING THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION IN PLACE OVER THE
CONUS FROM THE SHORT TERM TO START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS STILL MANUFACTURED OUT OF THE
DEPARTMENT OF REDUNDANCY DEPARTMENT - WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ON
A DAILY BASIS.
THERE IS ALSO TRENDING NOTED WITH THE WRN ATLC/BERMUDA UPPER
RIDGE TOWARD A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SOLUTION OR AT LEAST A GREATER
RETROGRESSION WITH TIME. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN ATM RIVER/ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEING DRAWN NWD BTWN THE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE MS
VLY AND THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHING WWD FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING FORECAST AS THE DEEP PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF ORGANIZED MOD-HVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE
MID-ATLC REGION. BY F144 OR 00Z FRI 7/5...THE OPRN GFS/CMC/EC AND
GEFS MEAN SHOW AN AVG OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL PA WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE. THE DETAILS WILL
NEED TO BE RESOLVED AT SHORTER RANGES...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO
POTENTIAL FLOODING. THEREFORE WE FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP UNDER THE STRONG LATE JUNE
SUNSHINE...BUT AS OF 2PM STILL NO LIGHTNING OVER MY FCST AREA.
MOST SITES ARE VFR AND WILL REMAIN SO EXCEPT WHILE BEING AFFECTED
BY THE POP UP CONVECTION THAT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH DAILY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE PM HOURS...AND PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS/FOG AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-THU...VFR WITH AREAS OF LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
107 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA READY TO CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS IS THE WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND BRING ISO/WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS.
MODELS ALSO SHOWING A SUBTLE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HELP TO AID IN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW AND ONLY MAX OUT
AROUND 500 TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. MOST ALL HI RES
MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS BY
AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES THEM AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY AND
EVEN A TAD FURTHER WEST. EXPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RATHER QUITE WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY WITH PRECIP
CHANCES NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATER ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CERTAINLY LESS THAN
CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE
LATEST INSTALLMENT OF 00Z SOLUTIONS HAS THE MAMMOTH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WEST FLATTENING OUT BY THURSDAY...WITH STRONGER
WESTERLIES AND EMBEDDED S/W`S MOVING SWIFTLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. DOUBTLESS...WHEN THE ALLBLEND POPS GET BOILED DOWN...THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AT THIS POINT...TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE COOLER EARLIER ON
IN THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WAA/WARMING TREND HEADING
INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
SURFACE HEATING CU DEVELOPING QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOWN ON RADAR. EXPECT THE CU TO BE LOW VFR AND
GO FROM SCT-BKN AT TIMES AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH SOME VICINITY SHOWERS AT ABR AND ATY. ABR AND
ATY MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A P6SM -SHRA AT THE STATION.
OTHERWISE...THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT ALL
TERMINALS TODAY AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1025 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING. THE ONLY MINOR
CHANGE MADE WAS TO PUSH BACK THE MENTION OF SHOWERS A COUPLE OF
HOURS LATER. OTHERWISE...REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND THE UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT OUT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA READY TO CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS IS THE WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND BRING ISO/WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS.
MODELS ALSO SHOWING A SUBTLE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HELP TO AID IN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW AND ONLY MAX OUT
AROUND 500 TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. MOST ALL HI RES
MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS BY
AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES THEM AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY AND
EVEN A TAD FURTHER WEST. EXPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RATHER QUITE WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY WITH PRECIP
CHANCES NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATER ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CERTAINLY LESS THAN
CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE
LATEST INSTALLMENT OF 00Z SOLUTIONS HAS THE MAMMOTH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WEST FLATTENING OUT BY THURSDAY...WITH STRONGER
WESTERLIES AND EMBEDDED S/W`S MOVING SWIFTLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. DOUBTLESS...WHEN THE ALLBLEND POPS GET BOILED DOWN...THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AT THIS POINT...TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE COOLER EARLIER ON
IN THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WAA/WARMING TREND HEADING
INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL AGAIN PICK UP BY MID DAY. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD EFFECT KATY/KABR OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION ACTUALLY LUMBERING ACROSS
TERMINAL AIRSPACE REMAINS LOW AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREVALENT. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA READY TO CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS IS THE WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND BRING ISO/WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS.
MODELS ALSO SHOWING A SUBTLE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HELP TO AID IN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW AND ONLY MAX OUT
AROUND 500 TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. MOST ALL HI RES
MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS BY
AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES THEM AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY AND
EVEN A TAD FURTHER WEST. EXPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RATHER QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY WITH PRECIP
CHANCES NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATER ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CERTAINLY LESS THAN
CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE
LATEST INSTALLMENT OF 00Z SOLUTIONS HAS THE MAMMOTH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WEST FLATTENING OUT BY THURSDAY...WITH STRONGER
WESTERLIES AND EMBEDDED S/W`S MOVING SWIFTLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. DOUBTLESS...WHEN THE ALLBLEND POPS GET BOILED DOWN...THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AT THIS POINT...TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE COOLER EARLIER ON
IN THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WAA/WARMING TREND HEADING
INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL AGAIN PICK UP BY MID DAY. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD EFFECT KATY/KABR OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION ACTUALLY LUMBERING ACROSS
TERMINAL AIRSPACE REMAINS LOW AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREVALENT. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
407 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA READY TO CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS IS THE WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND BRING ISO/WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS.
MODELS ALSO SHOWING A SUBTLE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HELP TO AID IN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW AND ONLY MAX OUT
AROUND 500 TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. MOST ALL HI RES
MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS BY
AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES THEM AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY AND
EVEN A TAD FURTHER WEST. EXPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RATHER QUITE WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY WITH PRECIP
CHANCES NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATER ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CERTAINLY LESS THAN
CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE
LATEST INSTALLMENT OF 00Z SOLUTIONS HAS THE MAMMOTH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WEST FLATTENING OUT BY THURSDAY...WITH STRONGER
WESTERLIES AND EMBEDDED S/W`S MOVING SWIFTLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. DOUBTLESS...WHEN THE ALLBLEND POPS GET BOILED DOWN...THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AT THIS POINT...TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE COOLER EARLIER ON
IN THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WAA/WARMING TREND HEADING
INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL AGAIN PICK UP BY MID DAY. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD EFFECT KATY/KABR DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
PROBABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREVALENT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
900 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.EVENING UPDATE...
PESKY UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION HAS
CAUSED EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION...CAUSING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EVEN
SOME MINOR FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS IN PUTNAM COUNTY WITH ONE OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS WANED...BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS EAST OF 65 THROUGH ROUGHLY
MIDNIGHT...THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS THEREAFTER FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA.
EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. UPDATE WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SCATTERED CELLS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE EARLY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE MID STATE. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER DARK, SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH
REMARKS (TEMPO AT CSV) THROUGH 02Z. LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AT CSV. AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON MONDAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SCATTERED CELLS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE EARLY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE MID STATE. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER DARK, SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH
REMARKS (TEMPO AT CSV) THROUGH 02Z. LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AT CSV. AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON MONDAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED
FORECAST QUANDARIES...ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT POSITION
APPROACHING/INTO STATE AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD MOVEMENT...ASSOCIATED
SHWR/TSTM CHANCES...TEMPS.
12Z SUN GFS EXPECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF STATE BY
THIS EVENING...AND THEN BEGINNING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NW. THIS WILL ALLOW
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN TO BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID STATE
THRU TUE NIGHT. LATEST EURO AND NAM SIMILAR IN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT AND
POSITIONS WITH SUBTLETIES DIFFERENCES HERE AND THERE BETWEEN THEM AND THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION. AGAIN...ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT POSITION AND
WHAT PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE IT PLACES FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHWR/TSTM
DEVELOPMENTS PER SLY FLOW SFC/ALOFT WILL BE THE OVERALL KEY AGAIN HERE.
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE WILL BE ON MON AFTERNOON WHEN
NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU
THE EVENING HRS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/CHANCE SHWRS PLATEAU AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN OF EVENING CHANCE TSTMS FOR MON
AND TUE NIGHTS...TO A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AS POSSIBLE DIURNAL EFFECTS DIMINISH. HOWEVER...WITH THIS EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVEMENT...EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO BE THE GENERAL TREND TONIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS
THRU TUE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS ALSO TRENDING GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES ALSO. AS LIKE YESTERDAY ALSO...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHWR/TSTM RESULTING IN A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR...BUT AM CONTINUING
TO NOT ANTICIPATE AT THIS TIME ANY OVERALL POTENTIAL OF ANY TYPE OF A
FLOODING EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES PRESENTLY
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER HIGH...BUT GENERALLY HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...AND AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST.
AS FOR WED THRU SUN...AS LIKE AROUND THIS TIME YESTERDAY...BERMUDA BASED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AS THIS
TIME PERIOD PROGRESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLY/SWLY SFC AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THIS PERIOD ALSO...RESULTING IN
THE CONTINUANCE OF A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH ACROSS THE MID STATE. BUT RELIEF
DOES LOOK TO BE IN SIGHT FOR SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA BY SUN
AFTERNOON AS RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
AS LIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY ALSO...AND STILL DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL ALL THE
TIME ACROSS THE MID STATE PER THIS PATTERN THRU THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT
CONTINUE ALSO TO AT LEAST THINK THAT THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISO/SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN PTCLDY TO MOCLDY SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLY NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE ANTICIPATED VARIABILITY IN CLOUD COVERAGE
AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL WITH LOWS GENERALLY AROUND SEASONABLY NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1137 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. CONVECTION HAS
STRUGGLED TO MOVE TO THE EAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES DUE TO THE UPPER LOW BEING OUT OF THE NORTH. TOMORROW WILL
BE A DIFFERENT CASE. UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS SE COLORADO OR
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES.
AS SUCH HAVE INSERTED VCTS INTO THE PREVAILING GROUPS STARTING 2-3Z.
ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 14KTS FROM A SOUTHEAST TO EAST
DIRECTION THROUGH THIS TAF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
UPDATE...
TSTMS HAVE REMAINED CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND ERN CO
THIS EVENING AS STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO
JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS NWRN ZONES. ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPDATED
PRODUCTS AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
ANDRADE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
LARGE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HEAT TO THE WESTERN
CONUS...THE PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE MEANS THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE A
SHIFT TOWARD WETTER AND COOLER WX CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE THE COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS SLID INTO SOUTHERN
TX. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTED IN COOLER
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH ITS STILL TOASTY WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S. CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM AND CO WHICH IS TYPICAL IN THIS TYPE OF WX
PATTERN. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA /PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE
VALUES/ BULK SHEAR IS WEAK SO IF ANY STORMS DO MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THEY WILL NOT BE ORGANIZED. HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES
IMPROVE SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
RETROGRADES INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGES A
BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO TRANSITION MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD FAVOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS. STORMS
MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED AS WELL OWING TO LARGER VALUES OF CAPE AND
SHEAR. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS KEPT THE AREA OUT OF A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS LIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
MECHANISM...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN UNDER STOUT NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW ALTHOUGH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE WEEK...PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INDEPENDENCE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE UPPER FLOW BACKS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT DIVERGED TOO MUCH
FROM THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE OPTED TO NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FOR THIS
PERIOD. BESIDES THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S EXPECTED AREA WIDE. THIS WILL BE A
NICE CONTRAST TO THE HOT WEEK WE`VE HAD.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND 20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY STAYING UNDER 15 MPH.
CLK
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1106 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.UPDATE...
TSTMS HAVE REMAINED CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND ERN CO
THIS EVENING AS STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO
JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS NWRN ZONES. ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPDATED
PRODUCTS AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE RISK OF CONVECTION IN AND AROUND THE
TERMINAL BOTH THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING REMAIN TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO
PREVAILING GROUPS AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION OVER NEW MEXICO
PERSISTING INTO THE PANHANDLES. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND WILL MAKE UPDATES AS NEEDED. TOMORROWS CHANCES
LOOK HIGHER THAN TODAYS BUT ARE AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
LARGE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HEAT TO THE WESTERN
CONUS...THE PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE MEANS THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE A
SHIFT TOWARD WETTER AND COOLER WX CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE THE COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS SLID INTO SOUTHERN
TX. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTED IN COOLER
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH ITS STILL TOASTY WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S. CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM AND CO WHICH IS TYPICAL IN THIS TYPE OF WX
PATTERN. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA /PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE
VALUES/ BULK SHEAR IS WEAK SO IF ANY STORMS DO MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THEY WILL NOT BE ORGANIZED. HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES
IMPROVE SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
RETROGRADES INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGES A
BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO TRANSITION MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD FAVOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS. STORMS
MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED AS WELL OWING TO LARGER VALUES OF CAPE AND
SHEAR. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS KEPT THE AREA OUT OF A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS LIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
MECHANISM...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN UNDER STOUT NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW ALTHOUGH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE WEEK...PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INDEPENDENCE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE UPPER FLOW BACKS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT DIVERGED TOO MUCH
FROM THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE OPTED TO NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FOR THIS
PERIOD. BESIDES THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S EXPECTED AREA WIDE. THIS WILL BE A
NICE CONTRAST TO THE HOT WEEK WE`VE HAD.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND 20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY STAYING UNDER 15 MPH.
CLK
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1030 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures across the Inland Northwest will warm over the
weekend and reach very hot temperatures early next week. A chance
for thunderstorms will be possible across the region on Saturday
with a small chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday over
the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be
some of the hottest we have seen in several years. Many places
will experience triple digit heat early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: We have continued the threat for thunderstorms
along the Cascade Crest for the next few hours. As of
830PM...radar indicated two cells tracking along the western
fringes of the Cascade Crest just west of the northern Chelan
County line. RUC13 indicated this area is carrying over a 1000
J/kg of surface based CAPE with very little CIN. This should be
short-lived with sunset nearing and the lift along the front a few
hours away but we will continue to monitor closely for future
updates.
Otherwise...Very little to update now through 5AM for most
locations as mostly clear skies and light winds dominate. Did
adjust overnight lows to trend warmer then last night as all ASOS
stations currently running 5-10 degrees warmer then yesterday at
this time.
We continue to monitor the thunderstorm potential arriving
early Saturday and continuing through the evening hours. Now that
we have 3 runs of the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model
and the 00z NAM...confidence continues to increase that a cluster
of showers and thunderstorms will spring to life around 12z (5AM)
between southern Chelan County...east toward the Tri-Cities...and
Blue Mtns. This cluster will track northward impacting portions of
the Columbia Basin...East Slopes...Waterville
Plateau...Palouse...and West Plains between 12-18z (5AM-
11AM)...arriving in the Spokane Area around 8AM. It will not be a
continuous line from Chelan county to the Palouse so there is
still some uncertainty exactly which locations will be passed
over. The HRRR has been consistent with a cluster between
Pendleton and Tri- Cities...jogging N/NE into the
Palouse...Columbia Basin...and Spokane Area between 12-16z while
isolated cells develop in the vicinity of the East
Slopes/Wenatchee Area/Waterville Plateau. The 00Z NAM places the
cluster over western reaches of the Basin, Waterville Plateau, and
East Slopes with isolated cells in the vicinity of the Blues and
Palouse which also track north toward Spokane-CDA. Utilizing a
blend of the both...we have increased PoPs slightly into the
20-40% range and will like to see a few more runs of the HRRR and
00z GFS before adjusted further.
Once the front pushes through early Saturday afternoon and the
first round of convection translates through the region, the
forecast becomes quite challenging. Given high dewpoints,
potential for more rainfall Saturday morning and afternoon highs
in the 80`s to lower 90`s, NAM/GFS indicate an impressive amount
of surface based CAPE under a strong CIN layer and there lies the
question, can we break through the CIN. If so, there is the
potential for rapid convection and strong thunderstorms. The
higher terrain of the Idaho Panhandle and mountains of northern WA
may be enough to overcome the CIN but there is little evidence
this will occur in the Basin and lowlands. One exception could be
gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms in the
mountains...descending into the lowlands and creating boundaries
to push through the CIN layer. This is almost impossible to
predict this far out and carrying 20% region-wide was a good idea
from the previous forecast. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Moisture will begin trickling into the region after
12z arnd the western periphery of a strong ridge of high pressure
centered over the Great Basin. This will interact with a weak
frontal boundary tracking east frm the coastal waters and bring the
potential for elevated showers and thunderstorms across most
terminals btwn 12z-18z. A few stronger storms will be possible
Saturday aftn with peak heating with northern and eastern mountains
carrying the highest threat. Due to strong CIN...we have backed off
on vcts frm the TAF sites however if outflow winds from the mountains
were to spread into the Basin and anything breaks through the cin,
it will intensify rapidly. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 63 89 65 91 68 100 / 10 40 20 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 60 89 64 90 65 99 / 10 30 20 10 0 0
Pullman 61 88 62 90 65 100 / 20 30 20 10 10 10
Lewiston 68 95 69 98 69 104 / 20 30 20 10 10 10
Colville 58 92 61 93 63 102 / 10 30 20 10 0 0
Sandpoint 54 89 60 89 60 95 / 0 30 30 10 0 0
Kellogg 61 88 63 88 64 96 / 10 30 30 10 0 10
Moses Lake 66 93 67 97 68 103 / 20 30 10 0 0 10
Wenatchee 68 92 68 96 72 101 / 20 30 10 0 0 0
Omak 66 91 64 96 67 102 / 10 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for East
Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
858 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures across the Inland Northwest will warm over the
weekend and reach very hot temperatures early next week. A chance
for thunderstorms will be possible across the region on Saturday
with a small chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday over
the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be
some of the hottest we have seen in several years. Many places
will experience triple digit heat early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: We have continued the threat for thunderstorms
along the Cascade Crest for the next few hours. As of
830PM...radar indicated two cells tracking along the western
fringes of the Cascade Crest just west of the northern Chelan
County line. RUC13 indicated this area is carrying over a 1000
J/kg of surface based CAPE with very little CIN. This should be
short-lived with sunset nearing and the lift along the front a few
hours away but we will continue to monitor closely for future
updates.
Otherwise...Very little to update now through 5AM for most
locations as mostly clear skies and light winds dominate. Did
adjust overnight lows to trend warmer then last night as all ASOS
stations currently running 5-10 degrees warmer then yesterday at
this time.
We continue to monitor the thunderstorm potential arriving
early Saturday and continuing through the evening hours. Now that
we have 3 runs of the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model
and the 00z NAM...confidence continues to increase that a cluster
of showers and thunderstorms will spring to life around 12z (5AM)
between southern Chelan County...east toward the Tri-Cities...and
Blue Mtns. This cluster will track northward impacting portions of
the Columbia Basin...East Slopes...Waterville
Plateau...Palouse...and West Plains between 12-18z (5AM-
11AM)...arriving in the Spokane Area around 8AM. It will not be a
continuous line from Chelan county to the Palouse so there is
still some uncertainty exactly which locations will be passed
over. The HRRR has been consistent with a cluster between
Pendleton and Tri- Cities...jogging N/NE into the
Palouse...Columbia Basin...and Spokane Area between 12-16z while
isolated cells develop in the vicinity of the East
Slopes/Wenatchee Area/Waterville Plateau. The 00Z NAM places the
cluster over western reaches of the Basin, Waterville Plateau, and
East Slopes with isolated cells in the vicinity of the Blues and
Palouse which also track north toward Spokane-CDA. Utilizing a
blend of the both...we have increased PoPs slightly into the
20-40% range and will like to see a few more runs of the HRRR and
00z GFS before adjusted further.
Once the front pushes through early Saturday afternoon and the
first round of convection translates through the region, the
forecast becomes quite challenging. Given high dewpoints,
potential for more rainfall Saturday morning and afternoon highs
in the 80`s to lower 90`s, NAM/GFS indicate an impressive amount
of surface based CAPE under a strong CIN layer and there lies the
question, can we break through the CIN. If so, there is the
potential for rapid convection and strong thunderstorms. The
higher terrain of the Idaho Panhandle and mountains of northern WA
may be enough to overcome the CIN but there is little evidence
this will occur in the Basin and lowlands. One exception could be
gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms in the
mountains...descending into the lowlands and creating boundaries
to push through the CIN layer. This is almost impossible to
predict this far out and carrying 20% region-wide was a good idea
from the previous forecast. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Moisture will begin trickling into the region after
12z arnd the western periphery of a strong ridge of high pressure
centered over the Great Basin. This will interact with a weak
frontal boundary tracking east frm the coastal waters and bring the
potential for elevated showers and thunderstorms across most
terminals btwn 12z-18z with continued uncertainty with the coverage.
A few stronger storms will be possible Saturday aftn with peak
heating with locations east of line from frm KPUW-KCQV carrying the
highest threat. Confidence is even lower regarding placement and
strength of these storms given presence of clouds from morning
convection and really weak forcing contributing to development.
Needless to say...the air mass will be quite unstable and anything
that breaks the cap will become strong quite quickly. If this
occurs, it expected to be on an isolated basis with areas of
southeastern WA and the ID Panhandle most favored attm. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 63 89 65 91 68 100 / 10 40 20 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 60 89 64 90 65 99 / 10 30 20 10 0 0
Pullman 61 88 62 90 65 100 / 20 30 20 10 10 10
Lewiston 68 95 69 98 69 104 / 20 30 20 10 10 10
Colville 58 92 61 93 63 102 / 10 30 20 10 0 0
Sandpoint 54 89 60 89 60 95 / 0 30 30 10 0 0
Kellogg 61 88 63 88 64 96 / 10 30 30 10 0 10
Moses Lake 66 93 67 97 68 103 / 20 30 10 0 0 10
Wenatchee 68 92 68 96 72 101 / 20 30 10 0 0 0
Omak 66 91 64 96 67 102 / 10 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for East
Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
DATA ANALYSIS OF LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING WATER
VAPOR/IR/VISIBLE SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. AS A RESULT OF THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT/SHOWER ACTIVITY...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BEING HELD DOWN
IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LOOK FOR THE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ROTATING SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE FILLING IN BEHIND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CARRIED ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER SOUTH OF I-90...THEN DIMINISHING COMPLETELY BY 9-10 PM.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI...TOT HE LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE LOWER LYING CRANBERRY BOG COUNTRY OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5
MPH RANGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.
OTHER THAN A FEW CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY IN DAYTIME
HEATING...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY/PLEASANT HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE.
SURFACE/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
50-55 DEGREE RANGE. CLEAR/COOL CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN LOWER LYING/RIVER VALLEYS. WILL PUT A MENTION OF
PATCHY IN FOG FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
POSSIBLY BEING MORE WIDESPREAD/DENSE. MITIGATING FACTORS FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE A GOOD DRYING DAY SUNDAY AND LIGHT NORTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST STARTS RETROGRADING BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD US ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING SOME
LIGHT QPF BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH THE LACK OF ANY
OBVIOUS SURFACE/MID-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS...THINKING THAT THIS
MAY BE THE RESULT OF A LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE INFLUENCE COMBINED WITH
THE STEEPENING LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THIS FEATURE FOR
POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH.
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM ALL SHOW THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH FORMING A CLOSED LOW AND CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TUESDAY FOR MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-90 TUESDAY...AND THEN SHOWERS CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE CLOSED LOW OPENING/FILLING AS IT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LINGERING COOL/CYCLONIC
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERAL TROUGHINESS LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR CONTINUED SMALL-END CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1154 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING. THE 29.15Z RAP SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE
THE LAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SHOWERS WITH THE WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON.
HAVE CARRIED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BOTH SITES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS THEN GOING BACK UP TO VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON SO CARRIED A VCSH UNTIL 00Z.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE SUBSIDENT ZONE BEHIND THE WAVE AND THIS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. MOVED UP THE TIMING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONCERNED THIS MAY STILL BE TOO SLOW. WITH
THE RECENT MOISTURE AND THE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. THE 29.12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DOES
SHOW SURFACE SATURATION OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT BUT EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KNOTS AND TO CREATE JUST ENOUGH
MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FOR SUNDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS AND A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1154 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN...WITH ANOTHER...WEAKER FEATURE SPINNING
OVER THE UP OF MICH. CURRENT SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MN SEEM TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THAT REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD
TODAY...WHILE THE UP MICH SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS HINT A SFC TROUGH
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE. MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ARE
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER TO ALLOW FOR ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY FROM THE EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AGAIN POINT TO SKINNY CAPE...SO CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS WOULD BE RELATIVELY SUBDUED...LIMITING A SEVERE THREAT.
LITTLE IF ANY 0-6 KM SHEAR TOO. EXPECTING ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...SHIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH SOME ENHANCED GUSTINESS AROUND THE STORMS. BRIEF
DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY...BUT NOT THE KIND THAT WOULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING OR FURTHER FLOODING PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-90 BY EARLY EVENING...EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH HOLDS ACROSS THE U.S. FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK...IN A QUASI-REX BLOCK FORMATION. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHEAST
BY MID WEEK. THE GFS BUILDS MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG SUN-FRI...BUT
LITTLE IF ANY WIND SHEAR. STILL...SUGGESTIVE OF A CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IF A FOCUS CAN BE FOUND. DON/T SEE ANY FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING TO WORK WITH...BUT THERE COULD BE BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
THAT SPIN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HOVERS OVER THE REGION. THE GFS
PRODUCES LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA EVERY DAY...BUT IT DOESN/T SEEM
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY OR UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. RATHER...IT
LOOKS MORE IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AUTO-CONVECTING. THE ECMWF STAYS DRY...EXCEPT IN THE
CASES WHEN IT LATCHES ONTO A DISTINCTIVE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AS
IT DOES ON WED. CONFIDENCE LOW ON RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK...BUT IF ANY TIME WAS FAVORED...IT WOULD BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. PROBABLY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES
AT THIS TIME. WILL LIKELY LEAN ON A DRY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WITH
SMALL POPS DURING THE DAY...UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE SOURCE FOR
FORCING CAN BE EVIDENCED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING. THE 29.15Z RAP SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE
THE LAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SHOWERS WITH THE WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON.
HAVE CARRIED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BOTH SITES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS THEN GOING BACK UP TO VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON SO CARRIED A VCSH UNTIL 00Z.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE SUBSIDENT ZONE BEHIND THE WAVE AND THIS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. MOVED UP THE TIMING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONCERNED THIS MAY STILL BE TOO SLOW. WITH
THE RECENT MOISTURE AND THE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. THE 29.12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DOES
SHOW SURFACE SATURATION OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT BUT EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KNOTS AND TO CREATE JUST ENOUGH
MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FOR SUNDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS AND A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1125 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH THE MAIN BAND EXTENDING ALONG A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL NOT SHIFT
MUCH TONIGHT AS A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BLOCK ANY
MOVEMENT WEST. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DECREASING...SO EXPECT
THAT THE THUNDER CHANCES WILL GREATLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DESPITE THIS DECREASING INSTABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE MID LEVEL ASCENT PROVIDED
BY THE TROUGH TO GO ALONG WITH ANY REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES LEFT
OVER BY EARLIER CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS...HAVE UPPED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA
WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE THIS LIFT WILL SIT OVER TONIGHT...BUT DID
CONTINUE THE DIMINISHING COVERAGE TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
LAKE HURON/EERIE REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS
LOWER MI INTO NORTHERN WI/MN. RAP ANALYZING SEVERAL EMBEDDED
POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH/VORTICITY...COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOWER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 65-70 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE NEAR 80 ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR
SOUTHWEST WI. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT FEEL
LIKE MORE OF AN EARLY AUTUMN DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOWS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER
50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...ANOTHER DAY OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO OCCUR AS 0-1KM
ML MUCAPE PERKS UP INTO THE 400-1000J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON. BAY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECTING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE
CONFINED SOUTH MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94 AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO IA/IL AND RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON TEMPERATURES TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE 70-75 RANGE.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MN. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEARING
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL THEN BE NOTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
PATTERN REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHILE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGIONS. THIS
KEEPS THE AREA DRY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S. IT APPEARS THE GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY SHOW THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH FILLING/LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/EASTERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE LAMINAR/HIGH
ZONAL ACROSS CANADA. SO...LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY DRY AND
BECOMING WARMER. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY...
WARMING INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND WHETHER ANY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MORE
WIDESPREAD BAND NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH IT MORE LIKELY TO HIT RST THAN
LSE. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS WHEN IT APPEARS THAT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR.
AFTER THIS...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK THIS MORNING BEFORE THE
NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN AND MORE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE VFR THOUGH
SOME BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR OR IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
THAT MOVE THROUGH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
529 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MAINE...SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...WILL LIFT NNEWD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESS WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES SEEN IN THE 00Z
SOUNDING AND IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NJ
OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA.
THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE
AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WILL MEAN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THESE
AREAS WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE AREA AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND SOME WEAK LIFTING WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE DRYING PROFILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW
BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP. 85H TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME WILL AVERAGE 16 TO 18 DEG C. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
FRI INTO SAT AS SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION THOUGH STILL APPEARS TO
BE SCT IN NATURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER OR DYNAMICS TO
RELY ON.
HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF PCPN.
ONE AREA OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...EXPECT
TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO THE
EVENING.
MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN...WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TSTM
ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT SITES WEST OF NYC...THOUGH A STRAY TSTM COULD
MAKE IT INTO THE CITY TERMINALS. EXPECTING JUST SHRA OVER LI/CT
SITES. PSBL PCPN AGAIN THIS COMING NIGHT BUT TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE.
CIGS AND VIS WILL GO UP AND DOWN THE REST OF TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING GENERALLY IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. FOR THE
DAY...CURRENTLY THINKING MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE HEAVIER
PCPN MAY BRING IN IFR OR LOWER.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
1-2 HOURS MORE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF TSTMS TODAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NGT-FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS.
IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND THROUGH 6 AM
THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY.
PERSISTENT S SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT
SCA LEVELS.
A GRADUALLY VEERING SLY FLOW TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD
ALLOW MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO FALL BELOW 5 FT BY
THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
NJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...AND PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES...SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY APPROACH AND EXCEED BANKFULL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
511 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MAINE...SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...WILL LIFT NNEWD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESS WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES SEEN IN THE 00Z
SOUNDING AND IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NJ
OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA.
THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE
AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WILL MEAN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THESE
AREAS WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE AREA AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND SOME WEAK LIFTING WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE DRYING PROFILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW
BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP. 85H TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME WILL AVERAGE 16 TO 18 DEG C. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
FRI INTO SAT AS SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION THOUGH STILL APPEARS TO
BE SCT IN NATURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER OR DYNAMICS TO
RELY ON.
HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.
ONE AREA OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...EXPECT
TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO THE
EVENING.
MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MID DAY...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINS.
COULD SEE PCPN MOVE IN 1-2 HOURS SOONER. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER
MENTION ONCE A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING OF OCCURRENCE.
CIGS AND VIS WILL GO UP AND DOWN THE REST OF TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING GENERALLY IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. FOR THE
DAY...CURRENTLY THINKING MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE HEAVIER
PCPN MAY BRING IN IFR OR LOWER.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NGT-FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS.
IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND THROUGH 6 AM
THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY.
PERSISTENT S SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT
SCA LEVELS.
A GRADUALLY VEERING SLY FLOW TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD
ALLOW MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO FALL BELOW 5 FT BY
THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
NJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...AND PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES...SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY APPROACH AND EXCEED BANKFULL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT MON JUL 01 2013
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH TODAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
NATION IS UNDER THE TROUGHING PORTION OF THIS PATTERN PROVIDING A
SETUP FOR THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA TODAY. TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
MS VALLEY AND EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS AXIS IS SUPPLYING OUR
REGION WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW VALUES OVER
2"). OUR POSITION TO THE EAST OF THIS UNUSUALLY DEEP SUMMER TROUGH
ALSO IS PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING FOR
LIFT AND WITHIN THE DIVERGENT RRQ OF UPPER JET ENERGY ALIGNED DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. KEEPING CONVECTION FROM FIRING THIS TIME OF
YEAR IN FLORIDA IS HARD ENOUGH WITHOUT ADDING IN THE UNSEASONABLE
SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...A WET FORECAST
INCLUDING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN DURING THE PREVIOUS 24
HOURS. OUR REGION CONTINUES TO RESIDE WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE FL STRAITS...AND A
SURFACE REFLECTION TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND ROLLING ASHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. GOTTA
GIVE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE SUITE SOME CREDIT AS MOST
MEMBERS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A QPF MAXIMUM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THIS VERY AREA. THIS BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY AT LEAST
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING THE PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY...
WHAT ELSE IS THERE TO SAY. ANOTHER WET DAY IN STORE WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORM EXPECTED TO KEEP DEVELOPING INLAND OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST SHOULD SPREAD THE BETTER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SEEN DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD
UP THE COAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF OTHER FACTORS
INCLUDING THE FLOW REGIME...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING WITH OR WITHOUT THE EVENTUAL INFLUENCE
OF THIS FEATURE. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS AND SOME LOCALLY HEFTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN AVERAGE 1-2" OF RAINFALL IS A GOOD BET
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY TO SEE MORE. ADDING
TO SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS ALREADY EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS
OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN TODAY BY CLOUDS AND THE
EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE AND HAVE KEPT ALL AREAS IN THE 80S.
OBVIOUSLY NOT GOING TO BE THE GREATEST OF BEACH DAYS...BUT FOR THOSE
THAT DO VENTURE INTO THE WATER...AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK
CONTINUES DUE TO THE CHOPPY BREAKING SURF AND ONSHORE FLOW. UNUSUAL
FOR SUMMER BUT JUST LIKE SUNDAY...WE ACTUALLY HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TODAY. WITH THIS SUBTLE SHEAR...A FEW ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST...AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR 2 INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INLAND
THREAT WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IF WE CAN GET ANY SUNNY BREAKS AND
ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL CAPE PROFILES.
TONIGHT...
FINALLY BY TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL LOSE MOST OF THE UPPER
JET INFLUENCE AND ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE TO
THE S/SE WITH TIME. WON`T HELP THE COASTAL ZONES MUCH...BUT MAY HELP
TO DECREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER OUR INLAND COUNTIES. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
EASTERN GULF ACTIVE AND ALONG THE COAST THE CHANCE FOR CONTINUED
SCT-NMRS SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
THESE DAYS WILL BEGIN A SLOW TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND MORE TOWARD A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME...ANY STRONG SUPPRESSION
FROM THE RIDGE IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE
WILL NOT SHOW AN SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE UNTIL AROUND THURSDAY EITHER.
THEREFORE...NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL AGAIN HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS ORGANIZED OR TEMPORALLY LONG AS
TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS SHOW LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...BUT OPTIMISTIC THAT THE TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL
BE EVEN LESS STILL...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BEHAVING MORE TYPICAL
OF JULY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS A LIGHT AT THE END OF THIS TUNNEL LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR MORE SUN AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
THE PATTERN TO ONE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF JULY FOR THE LATER PORTION
OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
THURSDAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY...WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SANDWICHING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER GULF
WATERS WEST OF THE CWA. THESE FEATURES SLOWLY WORK WESTWARD WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE FORMING OVER THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST TO THE SE U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. DRIER AIR WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE
WEEK...INTO THE LOWER SCATTERED RANGE. THE EAST AND SE FLOW WILL
KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THE BEST ODDS OF STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH THE
EAST AND SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA UNDER BKN MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD...ACROSS/NEAR THE TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY BUT WITH SCT TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
PERSISTENT MODERATE SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
INTO TUESDAY PRODUCING CHOPPY ELEVATED SEAS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH AND NORTH OF THE
WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND
ABNORMALLY HIGH RAIN COVERAGE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 77 90 77 / 90 70 70 50
FMY 86 75 91 75 / 90 50 70 30
GIF 88 73 90 74 / 80 40 70 30
SRQ 87 78 91 77 / 90 70 70 50
BKV 87 73 90 72 / 90 70 70 30
SPG 85 78 90 78 / 90 70 70 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CHARLOTTE-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
AVIATION/LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE
CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS
ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER
THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH
AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING
OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE CONTENT.
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO
SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A
LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS
CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA
IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING
ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER
THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF
INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF
2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD
VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS
WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY
REALISTIC.
01
&&
.HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
STORMS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND SHOULD
REMAIN THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...WILL SEE LOW CIGS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO MCN AND
AHN...DEVELOP NW TO AFFECT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE ATL TERMINALS
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH ATTENTION
TURNING TO NEXT ROUND OF TSRA. BEST LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY TO THE
WEST BUT BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WILL GO WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR AHN AND MCN WITH A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO
INCLUSION LATER TODAY FOR ATL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG DEVELOPMENT AND TSRA CHANCES.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 60 50
ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 50 30 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 64 / 60 50 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 50 30 40 50
COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 50 20 30 40
GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 40 50 50
MACON 87 70 86 72 / 50 30 50 40
ROME 87 66 85 68 / 50 30 40 40
PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 50 30 40 40
VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 60 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
156 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT INLAND AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE... A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PRODUCE TIMES
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND
EXPAND INTO THE REGION AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINTAINED THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH OF I-16.
THE KCHS RAOB DEPICTED A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS FEATURING
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT N/NE INTO
THIS ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH/EAST
EXPANSION OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...SOME
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT
BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL FOCUS INLAND WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN GENERAL...UPDATED POPS ARE
GRADUATED FROM LIKELY/CATEGORICAL SOUTH/WEST TO CHANCE/LIKELY
NORTH/EAST.
GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING...LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL HAVE DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIME FOR SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.
WIDESPREAD WET CONDITIONS LOOK APPARENT ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SFC LOW
REMAINS POSITIONED THE DEEP SOUTH AND LIKELY AMPLIFIES MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE REGION WHILE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXPANDS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FORCES THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN PINNED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AS PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 2.5 INCHES...FAVORABLE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OCCURS WITH AN H25 JET...AND SEVERAL H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD
BE ON MONDAY WHEN ENHANCED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A 30-35 KT H85 JET WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE AS THE WEAK SFC LOW TO OUR WEST RESULTS IN FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 OVER
ALL LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPERIENCED AND ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WILL MAINTAIN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRECISE LOCATION ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 70 OVER MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN THE INCREASING TREND
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE THE LARGE TROUGH TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST BEGINS
TO MAKE A NORTHERN RETREAT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST PRECIP
ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER FAR INLAND LOCATIONS...THUS HAVE KEEP 60-70
POPS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
NEAR 50 POPS ALONG THE COAST.
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GIVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SATURATED PROFILES...HOWEVER CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED EVENT WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG SFC HEATING DUE TO THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...HIGHEST INLAND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD INDICATING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING WEST OF THE AREA THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST EACH
MORNING TRANSITIONING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY GETTING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...BUT TIMING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS REMAINS DIFFICULT AS
CONVECTION COULD OCCUR AT NEARLY ANYTIME. THE FORECAST AT BOTH
TERMINALS HAS EITHER VICINITY SHOWERS OR PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WITH THE LATTER
DURING TIMES WHEN GUIDANCE INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM ABOUT 17-21Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
THIS APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE GREATEST WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION AT
THE TERMINALS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOWER CEILINGS
RESULTING IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING AT BOTH
KCHS AND KSAV OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS JUSTIFY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL AREAS
OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN ELEVATED IN
THIS AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JETTING INTENSIFIES.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER LOCAL WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS POSITIONED INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ALL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS IN MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NEARSHORE SC WATERS AND OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK NEAR
20-25 KTS WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT DURING THE ADVISORY EVENT
AS A 30-35 KT LOW LVL JET ADVANCES NORTH OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO MID WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
RIP CURRENTS...AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG SC BEACHES DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS NEAR
15-20 MPH AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT. THUS THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST...THUS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW
CATEGORY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL REMAIN AN IMPRESSIVE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE REGION REMAINS ANCHORED UNDERNEATH A TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTING NORTH BETWEEN BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
PLETHORA OF UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH WILL SUPPORT
HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MUCH OF THE REGION IS RUNNING WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ROUGHLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 30/845 PM EDT...2.33 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN AT THE
CHARLESTON AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR
THE DATE. WE WILL TRANSMIT A RECORD EVENT REPORT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHEN DAILY RAINFALL FOR JUNE 30 IS FINALIZED
RECORD RAINFALL TOTALS FOR 30 JUNE...
PREVIOUS CHARLESTON AIRPORT... 1.75 INCHES - 1987
WATERFRONT PARK...... 2.12 INCHES - 1944
SAVANNAH AIRPORT..... 3.06 INCHES - 1983
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ087-088-099>101.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR/JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...DPB/SPR
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
204 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE CONVECTION IS DEFINITELY TRENDING DOWN AND THERE IS
BARELY AND MORE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THERE IS AN AREA OF STRONG RETURNS OVER EAST TENN THAT IS MOVING TO
THE NORTH AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO MCCREARY AND WHITLEY
COUNTIES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM. EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
DID ANOTHER UPDATE TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PLOW
NORTH...MAINLY INTO AREAS THAT SAW MORE LIMITED CONVECTION EARLIER
TODAY. WOULD EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ONCE IT GETS
CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY WHERE BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRED
EARLIER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE RADAR TRENDS...WITH HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
WARRANTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN A SHARP CUTOFF BACK TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ANY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DOWNSTREAM...AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY
NORTHWEST. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP THE LOW TEMPERATURES A HAIR...WITH DEW
POINTS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
CONVECTION APPEARS TO DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. HAVE RE-ALIGNED THE
POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG A
LINE FROM MOREHEAD...TO IRVINE...TO WHITLEY CITY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THIS COMING IN CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT ITS CURRENT PACE...SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH OUR BORDER CLOSER TO BETWEEN 10 AND
10:30 PM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
500MB LOW MADE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN KY THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT HAS ALSO SET UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CREATING
A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR MOISTURE LIFT AND PRECIP. 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO IMPLYING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF KY
AND NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IN...OHIO...AND WV...WITH THE BEST
CONCENTRATION BEING OVER OHIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE GIVING
INDICATIONS OF A BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL
/DESPITE TSRA THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT/...WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TODAY ONCE LLVL AND MID LEVEL CAPS HAVE BROKEN.
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BASED ON THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A
STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PREDOMINATE SW TO NE
FLOW...STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MAKING THIS PATH THROUGH THE CWA
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LOW WILL STILL PLAY A ROLE IN SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS...OCCLUDED FRONT AND BEST LIFT WILL BEGIN EXITING TO THE EAST.
WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE MORE OF A RAIN
SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH SOME LINGERING TO ISOLATED TSRA STILL
POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...SOME VALLEY FOG COULD NOT
BE RULED OUT IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS. THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY TOMORROW /MONDAY/ HOWEVER...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
FURTHER SE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PULL THE
OCCLUDED FRONT SLIGHTLY BACK WESTWARD AND PLACE A BULLSEYE OF QVECTOR
CONV OVER NORTHERN KY...EASTERN IN...AND WESTERN OHIO...WITH
REASONABLE CONV EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THREE STATES. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH A BETTER POOL
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT MUCH HIGHER PROB OF CONVECTION AND
TSRA POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL KEEP WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING PEAK. AS WAS
THE CASE TODAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SPEED SHEAR IS GOOD...BUT THE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LACKING...SO EXPECT STORMS TO FOLLOW THE FLOW OF
THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND DROP DOWN/REDEVELOP OFTEN. THE CHALLENGE IS
THEN TRYING TO PINPOINT EXACT ONSET OF PRECIP AS WELL AS TRYING TO
BEST TRACK WHERE THE CELLS WILL DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS
MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED WESTWARD BY THE
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST HEADING
TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL WEAR DOWN THE
PLAIN/S TROUGH HELPING IT TO FILL WHILE LESSENING ITS EFFECT ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WHILE HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING LOCALLY AS
THE TROUGH GIVES WAY TO RIDGING...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH DEEP LEVEL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THE EXTENDED...MINOR
MID LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH LITTLE
FORECASTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...BUT LIKELY TO PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED RIDGING MAY BUILD IN
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA... BUT THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE POP HEAVY. ALL IN ALL...THE MODEL SIMILARITIES RAISE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT THE CR GRID LOAD WILL
PROVIDE...THOUGH AM WARY OF THE HIGHER POPS THIS WEEKEND.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RATHER DAMP...AND
INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN...FOR EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE
EXTENDED. THE DAILY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT STRAY ONES AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL AT NIGHT...AS
WELL. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EAST MAY PUSH IN
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WITH A RATHER CLOUDY AND DAMP ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...DID NOT ADJUST THE RIDGES AND VALLEYS MUCH FOR LOWS.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT ENOUGH...BUT PERHAPS TOO HIGH WITH
POPS DURING THE NIGHT AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND SO HAVE NUDGED THEM
DOWN. IN ADDITION...BUMPED MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE
ACTIVITY. EXPECTING LOTS OF VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. FOR THE TAF
STATIONS...EXPECTING THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT JKL AND LOZ AS THERE
HAS BEEN MORE RAINFALL OVER THAT PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z ON ACROSS THE
AREA. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD INDICATION OF WHEN THE TAF STATIONS WILL GET
THUNDER...SO JUST LEFT VCTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THOUGHT IT
WOULD BE RIDICULOUS TO BLANKET THE TAF WITH TEMPO GROUPS WITH SO
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A
BERMUDA RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW SAGA CONTINUES TODAY AS THIS FEATURE ROTATES ABOVE THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LOW ARE EQUALLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...LOCKING THE LOW IN
PLACE AND SOLIDIFYING A CORRIDOR OF ERN GULF AND SRN ATLC MOISTURE
TO TREK NWD UP THE ERN SEABOARD. SEVERAL LARGE SWATHS OF PRECIP ARE
SPENDING THE OVERNIGHT HRS DRIFTING UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR...SRN AND
CNTRL APLCNS AND AREAS IN BETWEEN. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS THE
RESIDUAL STRATIFORM PRECIP FROM EARLIER TSTMS. STILL SOME WEAK
CONVECTION EMBEDDED ALL ACROSS THE SRN ATLC STATES AND SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE OHIO VLY...BUT THE LARGEST BATCH OF STORMS
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SERN PA.
AN INTERESTING MID-LEVEL PICTURE SETTING UP ON THE WV SAT LOOP...W/
MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SWRN SIDE OF THE MOIST AXIS
UP THE ERN SEABOARD. THIS ADDS A SHARPER STRATIFICATION OF DRY/MOIST
AIR BEST SUITED FOR INDIVIDUAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AS OPPOSED TO THE
MORE TROPICAL LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. TODAY`S
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AND CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE THAN ON SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MORE CLOUD-FILLED TODAY -
LIMITING INSTABILITY - AS WILL THE MORE MOIST ADIABATIC COLUMN LAPSE
RATES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE DRY AIR FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
LIKELY MAKE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS TO OUR SOUTH IN TERMS OF
AIDING SEVERITY TO STORMS...THOUGH A FEW STRONG/SVR AREN`T OUT THE
QUESTION ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY.
EXPANDED THE FF WATCH TO THE BLUE RIDGE FOR N CNTRL MD AND PORTIONS
OF NRN VA. FORECASTING A CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP WHICH MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE LEE OF THE CNTRL APLCNS TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE NAM HAS SHIFTED IT MORE TOWARD THE SHEN
VLY/BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH IT ALSO HAS THE AXIS DRIFTING EWD THRU THE
EVE HRS. LOCAL GUIDANCE AND THE RECENT RUC PROGS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
BUT A BIT FURTHER EAST...SO THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED A TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE WEST - ALTHOUGH ISOLATED/LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA IF TRAINING CELLS DEVELOP.
IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LARGE AREAS OF LIGHT/MODERATE STRATIFORM RAINS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO RAINFALL TOTALS FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE IN SPOTS AND TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 70S AND A FEW U60S AFTER ONLY REACHING THE
L80S FOR HIGHS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER TODAY`S CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE...TUESDAY WILL BE SPREAD A BIT
MORE THINLY OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS...BUT THE OVERHEAD COLUMN WILL BE EVEN
MORE MOIST AND THEREFORE MORE STABLE. PWATS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER
THAN ON MONDAY...SO ISOLATED FLOODING WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY...AND POSSIBLY A DEGREE/TWO
LOWER.
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST AND A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED IN A
ZONE OF HIGH MOISTURE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE AND LIFT FROM SHORTWAVES TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE
MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HAVE RETROGRADED WEST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 INCHES PLUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE A
THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. MODELS
ARE STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE AXES/BANDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SET UP...AND WILL NEED TO RESOLVE THIS WITH
TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP/WEAKEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
THE BERMUDA RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE
RIBBON OF HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO THE WEST AND MOST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. BUT EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR AT LEAST DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA FOR CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE IT WILL BE WARM WITH MAXIMA AROUND
90...CWA MAY ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO SHORTWAVES THAT COULD FIRE
CONVECTION PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL IS MAINLY SCATTERED
LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS W/ THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY HAVING DEVELOPED
OVER SERN PA...DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW MORE BATCHES OF
THIS TYPE OF MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 6-8
HRS. THE MAIN WX CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL BE DROPPING CIG
HEIGHTS...WELL INTO MVFR AND SOME IFR RANGES FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND OVER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD WELL INTO
THE MID-LATE MRNG HRS. ONCE SOME DAYTIME MIXING HELPS TO BREAK
SOME HOLES INTO THE CLOUD LAYER...THE THICKER LOW CLOUDS WILL
DISPERSE A BIT AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE TSTM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO
OUR SOUTH AND MOVE TOWARD THE METRO AREAS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE TO LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY TUE. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/EVE AS WELL.
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE WEEK AS A BERMUDA
RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST. WITH HIGH MOISTURE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS/QUICK
VSBY REDUCTIONS CAN OCCUR IN SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...COULD ALSO DEAL WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING OF WINDS THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY
OVERNIGHT AND BASICALLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. MORE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ON THE WAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS...W/ MORE BATCHES
OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ON MON AS WELL. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT...W/ ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE DURING THE LATE
WEEK...SO SHRA/TSRA MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANY SHRA/TSRA OF COURSE COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH POSSIBLE SCA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT GRADIENT MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 3/4 TO 1 FT REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 FT ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC.
APAM2 REMAINED JUST UNDER MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLD ON LAST
HIGH TIDE AROUND 1 AM. THE NEXT TIDE CYCLE IS THE LOWER ONE...AND
WITH ANOMALIES FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIC...DO NOT EXPECT
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SUBSEQUENT CYCLE TONIGHT
WILL BE OF MORE CONCERN AND COULD BE CLOSE TO MINOR THRESHOLDS AT
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS /SUCH AS ANNAPOLIS...WITH HIGH TIDE AT 158
AM/.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-
013-014-016>018.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ042-050>057-501-
502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ530-538.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/BPP
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS/BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...GMS/BPP
MARINE...GMS/BPP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
317 AM MDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST
MONTANA TODAY. THE 01/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD TRIGGER A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES ENHANCED BY DIURNAL
HEATING. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY LARGE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE SINKING
MOTION SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LIMITED OTHER THAN
THOSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. CHANCES ARE
CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS. THE ECMWF
IS JUST A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE AS IS THE
GFS. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH A WAVE INTO THE CWA YESTERDAY INTO YESTERDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...FELT COMFORTABLE INSERTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY...LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES
SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EAST. WILL GO WITH LOWER HIGHS THERE ANYWAY GIVEN THAT
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES CLOSER TO THE CWA WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SUPPRESSION OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A MUCH
GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE IN A RANGE
OF +22C TO +25C ACROSS THE CWA. THIS EASILY SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES
NEAR 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW AREAS PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM...AND
WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 90S.
WEDNESDAY PRESENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AS AIR FLOWS DOWN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE CWA. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +24C AND +30C TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 90 OR
ABOVE DURING THE AFTERNOON VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. ALSO...GIVEN WARM
850MB TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
WARMER START TO BEGIN WITH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALSO ASSIST
IN MAKING FOR A VERY HOT DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FORMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND WITH FULL VERTICAL MIXING...MID AND UPPER 90S
ARE A POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION. WILL NOT GET OVERLY CARRIED AWAY
JUST YET AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAY PUT A CEILING ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB. THE LATEST
NAM BRINGS IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH COULD SET OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRY HOWEVER FOR THE PERIOD.
INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL ASCENT WHEN NORTHEAST
MONTANA WINDS UP TO THE LEFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH SUCH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING...AS A WAVE APPROACHES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND SO INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION. IF ANYTHING ELSE...CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS COULD ALSO
RESULT IN PUTTING A CAP ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN A FEW PLACES.
THUS...EXPECT BROADLY MID 90S ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...IN AREAS
WHERE FULL VERTICAL MIXING IS REALIZED...AND CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION IS MINIMIZED...CAN EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE UPPER 90S. WHILE A FEW MODELS POINT OUT
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF UPPER 90S BEING MORE WIDESPREAD...SOME OF
THE RELIABLE MODEL BLENDS AND BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL BLENDS POINT
MORE TOWARD MID 90S. THEREFORE...LEANED TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL FURTHER FOR A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AS IT IS STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS OUT. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHANCE.
THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MONTANA
BY SATURDAY. WILL SEE FREQUENT SHORTWAVES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A COOLER AND AT TIMES AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN TO THE FORECAST AREA THAT COULD LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BECOME DIFFICULT TO TIME IN THIS PATTERN AND
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME INSTABILITY BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WILL GENERALLY BROADBRUSH FORECAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. EXPECT FOR THE LOCAL EASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS AT KGGW...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
409 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN QUEBEC DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TODAY AND AGAIN
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SLOW MOVING STORMS AND A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMALS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THE MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE MUGGY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEP 500 MB TROF DIPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SSW FLOW ALOFT. IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOW THIS PICKING UP MOISTURE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF AND LIFTING IT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS WHERE ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS. FOR
THE MOST PART...THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROF AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LIONS SHARE OF THIS MOISTURE TO OUR EAST TODAY.
A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS ALL POINT
TO THE GREATEST QPFS ACROSS EASTERN PA/NY...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP...AND IS ALSO IN
LINE WITH THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.
WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK APPEARS OUT OF THE AREA OF GREATEST
RISK...THERE ARE A FEW SUBTLETIES WHICH NEED TO BE WATCHED. AN
INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL HELP SPREAD MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. WHILE THE
TRAJECTORY OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST...THE MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT...WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STALL ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. IT WOULD
TAKE A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THIS...AND AT
THIS TIME THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL DEVELOP AND
IF SO WHERE. SOME RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE SUPPORT IN THIS FROM OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS NOT AMPLE CONFIDENCE IN A WATCH...BUT ONE
COULD BE ISSUED IF A CLEAR BOUNDARY DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM SE-NW TODAY...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD
LIFT EAST OF THE REGION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SOME
ENHANCED MOISTURE WHILE BRINGING THE HEAVIEST RAINS JUST TO OUR
EAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SLIGHTLY WHEN COMPARED
WITH YESTERDAY.
FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE EXIT OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF
MOISTURE. WHILE IT IS TOO FAR TO BE TRACED ON SATELLITE...ADDITIONAL
WAVES ARE LIKELY...AND WITH THE SURFACE TROF LIKELY TO BE A BIT
FURTHER WEST...ANY WAVE WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF CROSSING OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD POSE
ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE
LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS TIME PERIOD AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN
WILL FAVOR DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SUCH THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD.
TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THROUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO START THE DAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF WNY AND NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AS THE LIKELIEST PLACE FOR THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SATURATED GROUND...MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHICH WILL ALSO PUSH THE SURFACE TROF AXIS FURTHER WEST.
WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
ON WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS BY WEDNESDAY CLIMB BACK
UPWARDS TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH
WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME FORMING GIVING THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST
FLOW. TRADITIONALLY THESE LAKE BREEZES WILL PLACE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. WILL PLACE LIKELY POPS HERE WHILE HOLDING THE
REMAINING AREAS UNDER A CHANCE POP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OF THE LAKE BREEZES DIMINISH
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH 850
HPA TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BETWEEN 14 AND 16C ACROSS THE CWA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT NIGHT
TIME...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND A POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
ON THURSDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD PWATS
WILL CLIMB UPWARDS TOWARDS 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ONTARIO WILL BE
MORE LIKELY THURSDAY...WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING A STABLE AIRMASS
INLAND LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE OPEN WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS
ALLOWS THE BERMUDA HIGH TO PRESS FARTHER INLAND. THIS PUSH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BACK THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AND SHIFT THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI. WILL
STILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
LAKE BREEZES MAY TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THIS MOISTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY START TO
ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING A HEIGHTEN RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THOUGH WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
START THIS TIME PERIOD...AND HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD TO
AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND SOME
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z...MOST TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...LOW TO MID
CLOUD DECKS LIKELY TO STAY ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION
IS AT JHW...WHERE THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. AT JHW...CONDITIONS APPEAR NOTABLY DIFFERENT FROM LAST
NIGHT IN THAT THERE IS A 5-8 KT FLOW WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE
DENSE FOG FROM FORMING LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT. INSTEAD...EXPECT
LOWER CIGS FROM MVFR TO IFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS...AS LOW CLOUD
DECKS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND IN A NE FLOW. MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
(AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS MID-
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WAVE LIFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY...TEMPORARILY
LOWERING VSBY TO 2SM OR LESS.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH CONTINUED LOW
MOISTURE LIKELY TO RESULT IN MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT JHW.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A MODEST NE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP
BUILD WAVES ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WEST-CENTRAL
LAKE ERIE. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA BRIEFLY TODAY ON
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS MARGINAL ON LAKE ERIE...BUT CONSIDERING
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT...WILL ISSUE AN SCA FOR LAKE ERIE
WEST OF DUNKIRK...MAINLY FOR WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
403 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF
HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A
LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES
ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES
NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST
OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT
PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES.
NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU
THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND
AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE
DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING
LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT
TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF
CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE
FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP
OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT.
CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY
DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED.
HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN
GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE TEMPS.
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM EDT UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST IS AHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHERN PA. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KELM AND KBGM FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS LINGERING FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE
WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS.
THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN
THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT.
OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
4 PM UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN
FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING
BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY
DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT.
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW
RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC
FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL
FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND
DELAWARE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY,
CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO
TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE
THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN
INCH IN THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037-
044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
301 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF
HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A
LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES
ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES
NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST
OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT
PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES.
NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU
THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND
AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE
DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING
LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT
TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF
CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE
FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP
OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT.
CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY
DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED.
HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN
GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM EDT UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST IS AHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHERN PA. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KELM AND KBGM FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS LINGERING FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE
WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS.
THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN
THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT.
OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
4 PM UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN
FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING
BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY
DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT.
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW
RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC
FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL
FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND
DELAWARE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY,
CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO
TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE
THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN
INCH IN THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
217 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL USE 30-40 POPS TO
COVER REMAINING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRIOR
TO THE APPROACH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.
RE-TIMED PRECIP ONSET SLIGHTLY BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST.
730 PM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS ATTM. CURRENTLY WATCHING CONVECTION,
WHICH WE ANTICIPATE WILL WEAKEN BETWEEN 730 PM AND 10 PM WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING.
4 PM UPDATE...
FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF IT
LOCALIZED BUT IN SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD FLOODING A FEW
DAYS AGO. ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SE TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. MORE DETAILS AT BOTTOM.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM PIT TO ALY ACROSS THE
CWA. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSE OF SFC
HEATING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELPED BY A SHORT WAVE. WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE MEANT SLOW MOVING CONVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS TO CHANGE LITTLE MONDAY TO TUESDAY. THE SFC
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES
AND MAYBE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT COMBINED WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UL JET CREATING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGE OFF OF ATLANTIC
COAST WILL MOVE WEST TIGHTENING THE CONVERGENCE OVER NY PA. WITH
HEATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. AFTER MONDAY SUBTLE FEATURES WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP. WITH NO CAP AND MARGINAL SHEAR AND CAPE
ANY SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM EDT UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST IS AHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHERN PA. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KELM AND KBGM FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS LINGERING FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE
WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS.
THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN
THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT.
OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
4 PM UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN
FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING
BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY
DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT.
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW
RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC
FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL
FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND
DELAWARE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY,
CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO
TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE
THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN
INCH IN THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
TONIGHT... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 2 AND
2.25 INCHES ALL THE WAY NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR GREENSBORO (WHICH
REPORTED 1.86 PW AT 00Z/THIS EVENING). AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MID/UPPER
TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A STRENGTHENING WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WAS ALSO AIDING THE STRONG SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS SC/NC INTO VA. THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN OVERTURNED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ALMOST ALL OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION STILL ONGOING ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SPREADING OUTWARD FROM THE CORE OF THE EXPANSIVE
STABILIZED ZONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT (WHERE THE
CONVECTION EARLIER PRODUCED LIFE THREATENING FLOODING OVER CHATHAM
AND ORANGE COUNTIES). IT IS ALONG THESE OUTFLOWS WHERE TRAINING
CONVECTION MAY STILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 100 OR 200 AM...
NAMELY FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT... AND BACK OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH POP FOR FAY TO RDU
TO RWI THROUGH THAT TIME... WITH LOWERING POP ELSEWHERE.
THIS IS ONLY ROUND ONE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH... EXCESSIVELY WET PW`S...
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES (LEAD ON OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
TONIGHT). CONVECTION CAN RE-FIRE QUICKLY IN THIS TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT... EVEN LATE AT NIGHT (BUT MOST LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY WITH
HEATING). REGARDLESS... TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE VERY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. -BADGETT
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...
OVERALL: OUR PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS OR BANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48-60
HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WE ARE CERTAIN
TO SEE POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES LOCALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE SLOW-MOVING AND/OR REPEATED STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT: WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN
CONSTANTLY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME... THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS (AND LIKELY LONGER) OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE... INCLUDING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE
SHARPENING UPPER JET FROM ERN TN/KY THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS... AND
REPEATED SHOTS OF DPVA AS PERTURBATIONS RIDE FROM THE NE GULF UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IN PARTICULAR... BOTH
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED-CONVECTION MODELS LATCH ONTO
THE MID LEVEL MCV OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD WHILE
DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SSW STEERING FLOW NORTHWARD TOWARD NC TONIGHT. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE (NOTED ON MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
PLOTS) NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS... MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY HOLDS
OVER CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE STAYING IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE BOTH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT... AND RISING TO 800-1600 ON MONDAY. (IN
THE NEAR TERM... MESOANALYSES SHOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-7.5 C/KM... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM... AND MLCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS.) DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VERY HIGH PW
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING IN DIRECTLY FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS... AS THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL
DEPTH OVER 4 KM) WILL ENCOURAGE WARM RAIN PROCESSES... AND THE
ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ARE AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS... EVEN IF IT ONLY RAINS
HEAVILY FOR 15-30 MINUTES IN ANY GIVEN SPOT... RAPID RAIN RATES ARE
LIKELY AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN COULD EASILY FALL... LEADING TO
RAPID RUNOFF AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT ON ANY STREETS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION... STORMS
MAY HOLD IN THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED TIME AS CELLS MAY TEND TO
PROPAGATE BACK TO THE SW... AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP RUNS
SHOWING LOWERING MBE VELOCITIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDS BECOME
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO
70-90% CHANCE EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AS BOTH STORM-SCALE AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITHIN A VOLATILE AND VERY WET COLUMN APPEAR INEVITABLE...
AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COUPLE OF RELATIVE LULLS WITH ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... IT IS DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN WHEN SUCH A LULL MIGHT OCCUR. AND EVEN DURING
TIMES OF LOWER STORM COVERAGE... INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD STILL DROP
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
CLOUDS/TEMPS: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND... AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN
WITH EITHER STRATUS AT NIGHT OR CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. THIS... IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEADY BREEZE FROM THE SSE OR SOUTH... SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH WARM NIGHTS (LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S).
WCENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A DEEP...MOISTURE SOUTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHIFTS ONLY
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS
TO EXPAND. PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES...IF NOT INCREASE ABOVE 2
INCHES ON TUESDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALSO SHIFTS WESTWARD.
MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A WAVE PASSING MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCE PRECIP...BUT GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE
OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THIS PATTERN...ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF QPF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEEP LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CARRIED OUT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AND MAY POSSIBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY IN SOME AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY /SHEAR
DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT. WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...TAILING OFF TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS NC
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....SHIFTING THE PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THUS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
LATEST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN 2-4 HOURS... AND AFFECT THE REGION
FROM 08Z-15Z THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISBYS. FOR NOW WILL
COVER THIS THREAT WITH VCSH IN THE TAFS... AS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE IFR/LOW END MVFR RANGE AT THIS TIME. AFTER 15Z... EXPECT
WE MAY SEE A GENERAL BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH
MORE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER THIS MORNING... IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AGAIN. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND AS
CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR CONTINUED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD... SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING. BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND
WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE RESTRICTED TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS... WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT
AS WELL. WE SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC STARTS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
409 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST...A SUNNY AND
QUIET MONDAY IS FORECAST.
GIVEN LITTLE SPREAD IN 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WILL UTILIZE A
BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
GREATER PORTION OF THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE 07 UTC HRRR WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00
UTC 4KM WRF...AND 00 UTC NAM/GFS AND 03 UTC SREF. ALL DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
QUICKLY FADE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET WITH A CLEAR AND QUIET
MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEK. 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR
CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE LAS VEGAS CENTERED RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.
BY LATE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DIRECT MORE VIGOROUS
MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING OF THE STRONGEST LOW AMONG 00 UTC
ECMWF/GEFS/GFS/GEM GLOBAL DIFFERS BY UP TO 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S AS
THE POLAR FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1148 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...MOST OF THIS EVENING`S CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED, WITH
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING A FEW PLACES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AM EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT,
WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AT CSV LATER ON. LOOK FOR A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, BUT WITH AN
UPPER LOW STILL SITUATED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
EXPECT STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
EVENING UPDATE...
PESKY UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION HAS
CAUSED EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION...CAUSING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EVEN
SOME MINOR FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS IN PUTNAM COUNTY WITH ONE OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS WANED...BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS EAST OF 65 THROUGH ROUGHLY
MIDNIGHT...THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS THEREAFTER FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA.
EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. UPDATE WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF`S.
AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SCATTERED CELLS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE EARLY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LOW REMAINS
SITUATED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE MID STATE. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER DARK, SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH
REMARKS (TEMPO AT CSV) THROUGH 02Z. LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AT CSV. AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON MONDAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
257 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A stretch of hot summer weather will continue through mid week.
Triple digit heat is expected over much of the region on Monday
and Tuesday, and Heat Advisories remain in effect. A cooling trend is
expected Wednesday through Friday, but high temperatures for the
majority of the Inland Northwest will remain above normal through
early next week. The Inland Northwest is expected to remain
generally dry...except for a few thunderstorms mainly over the
mountains during the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Water vapor satellite imagery shows a large
area of high pressure centered just east of the area over western
Montana and southeast Idaho with an upper level trough offshore
near 140w. This strong ridge will promote very hot temperatures
today with highs in the upper 90s to around 105. The hottest
temperatures are expected around the Lewiston area. A heat
advisory remains in effect.
The placement of the ridge will result in a deep southerly flow
through tonight with upper level moisture being drawn northward.
This will be aimed especially at the Cascades beginning this
morning...which combined with elevated instability will generate a
good chance for isolated thunderstorms today primarily from Moses
Lake to Omak westward to the Cascades. The NAM model is most
preferred as it is handling the convection over Central Oregon
this morning much better compared to the GFS and ECMWF models. NAM
shows most unstable CAPE values of 200-400 J/KG with some weak
lift over North Central Washington. Some mid level moisture/instability
will also move into Eastern Washington and North Idaho with
afternoon with elevated CAPE values as high as 100 J/KG but this
most likely will not be enough to generate any convection. For
tonight another band of elevated moisture/instability will be
oriented from Central Oregon northeast into the Blue Mountains and
Lewiston area. The NAM shows elevated CAPE values of 300-700 J/KG
but with some CIN to overcome. Without any kicker to penetrate
through this layer convection is not expected and will continue
with a dry forecast. JW
.Tuesday through Thursday night...Looks like one more very hot day
awaits the Inland Northwest as abnormally strong upper level
ridge holds strong over the western US on Tuesday. The big
question is will Tuesday be warmer than Monday. 500 mb heights
will fall 1-2 decameters however the usually accurate 850-700 mb
thickness values suggest the cooling will be slight at best. Highs
still should still make the mid 90s to around 105 with the hottest
values expected over the lower Columbia Basin and Snake River
Valley. While these temperatures won`t generally exceed the
records for the date...they will be near over most locations. The
other question to ponder for Tuesday will be the risk of
thunderstorms. Model guidance is consistent on keeping the best
moisture and potential instability over extreme SE Washington and
into the central Idaho Panhandle. If the NAM is correct we will
see SBCAPE values ranging from 2500-4000 j/kg which is awfully
high for this region while CIN values will generally be less than
30 in that area. To attain these lofty values...the NAM is
producing dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s...which seems
awfully high...however if convection forms overnight Monday in
eastern Oregon and surges northward during the day it could be
possible. Given the NAM parameters...there would also be a small
chance of severe thunderstorms over this area if everything came
to fruition. The only thing lacking is a well-defined upper level
shortwave to overcome the CIN layer. As such...we suspect isolated
convection could form over the higher terrain from the Blue
Mountains NE toward the Clearwaters more akin to the GFS and
ECMWF.
By Wednesday and Thursday the ridge will undergo a significant
dampening over the PacNW as longwave trough axis currently along
140w will split into two sections with the northern portion
shifting through southern BC Tuesday evening. This passage will
result in more of a zonal flow pattern over the Inland NW with
much drier air spilling over the Cascades. This will result in a
much lesser chance of showers and thunderstorms as the
precipitable water values decrease from 150% of normal on Tuesday
to near 100% on Thursday. If thunder were to occur on either of
the two days the likely scenario would place the threat over the
Camas Prairie to the Clearwaters. More likely will be increasing
winds...especially in the lee of the Cascades on Tuesday evening
and across the remainder of the region on Wednesday. It does not
look like we will be dealing with windy conditions as 850 speeds
max out around 20 kts. Temperatures should cool both days as
850-700 mb thickness values continue to drop...however readings
will likely remain above normal with highs generally in the 90s on
Wednesday and into the mid 80s to mid 90s on Thursday. fx
.Friday through Sunday Night: Through this time frame we will see
temperatures start to flatten out a bit as the upper level flow
becomes a zonal/ slight trough pattern. Much of the moisture in
this flow looks to be limited for our region as an upper level
cutoff low in the Pacific intercepts most of it leaving us with a
generally dry period. The main part of the associated trough will
pass to our north leaving us with some very limited instability
mainly on the USA/BC border and then transitioning to the N Idaho/
Montana border late Friday into Saturday. I did leave slight
chance mention of t-storms in the higher elevations corresponding
to the mentioned areas but any storms that do form will be weaker
and likely short lived in nature. Other than the slight
chances...precipitation chances look very minimal for the entire
forecast area.
As the trough pushes to the east a ridge looks to build in behind
it which will further increase our chances of staying mainly sunny
and dry. The one factor that could introduce increased moisture would
be if a strong monsoonal push of moisture was to come up the ridge
from the Southwest and into our area. Models are not in agreement
of anything of this nature...but it will be something to monitor
if this ridge scenario would set up.
Overall conditions look pleasant in this period with temps in the
80s and lower 90s for most valley locations and slightly cooler
for the higher elevations with limited cloud cover. Some breezy
wind conditions may be present Friday..but should not be anything
of major significance. /Fliehman
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...Expect an incr in mid and high clouds across Lewiston and
Pullman btwn 6-12z as decaying cluster of thunderstorms tracks
northward through Ern OR. HRRR model suggest this surface based
convection will dissipate upon reaching SE WA arnd 11z. Otherwise...
mid and high level moisture trickling up the western periphery of a
ridge in place will bring increasing midlevel clouds aft 15z with a
slight chance for elevated -tsra along the spine of the Cascades and
vcnty of KEAT. Cigs with this activity will generally be 10-15K AGL
and confidence is too low to include in TAF. Additionally...a brief
period of winds incr 10-13kts is expected at KCOE during the early
morning. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 98 70 99 67 93 61 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 98 66 96 66 92 61 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Pullman 99 65 97 63 92 57 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Lewiston 105 73 104 71 99 66 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Colville 101 64 101 61 96 59 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 95 60 95 61 91 56 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Kellogg 96 65 94 65 91 60 / 0 10 20 20 10 10
Moses Lake 104 71 104 68 99 63 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 100 73 101 70 95 65 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 101 68 103 65 97 62 / 10 10 10 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from Noon today to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Heat Advisory from Noon today to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for East
Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1041 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A stretch of hot summer weather will continue through the week.
Triple digit heat is expected over much of the region on Monday
and Tuesday, and Heat Advisories are in effect. Temperatures are
expected to remain above average Wednesday through Friday, but
high temperatures for the majority of the Inland Northwest will
moderate into the 80s by the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Minor update this evening to increase skies some
across extreme southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle. This is
largely to account for convective debris spreading from
thunderstorm activity tracking north through eastern Oregon.
The main cluster of thunderstorms are still south of Baker, OR but
satellite reveals cirrus already extending into the Blue Mtns and
this trend will likely continue as HRRR indicates the storms will
hold together for a few hours before dissipating around 9z.
00z guidance in conjunction with water vapor imagery continues to
bring midlevel moisture and instability up the spine of the
Cascades early Monday morning. Unlike Saturday morning, there is
not a clear lifting mechanism or shortwave that will be present to
utilize the 100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE within the 700-500mb layer and
confidence is not exceptionally high that thunderstorms will
materialize. Needless to say, models continue to bring spotty QPF
to portions of southern Chelan County and points south between
12-18z Monday so will leave the 20 PoP inherited however this does
not look as promising as Saturday`s event. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...Expect an incr in mid and high clouds across Lewiston and
Pullman btwn 6-12z as decaying cluster of thunderstorms tracks
northward through Ern OR. HRRR model suggest this surface based
convection will dissipate upon reaching SE WA arnd 11z. Otherwise...
mid and high level moisture trickling up the western periphery of a
ridge in place will bring increasing midlevel clouds aft 15z with a
slight chance for elevated -tsra along the spine of the Cascades and
vcnty of KEAT. Cigs with this activity will generally be 10-15K AGL
and confidence is too low to include in TAF. Additionally...a brief
period of winds incr 10-13kts is expected at KCOE during the early
morning. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 66 99 70 99 67 94 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 64 98 67 98 65 94 / 0 0 10 10 10 0
Pullman 60 99 66 97 63 93 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Lewiston 69 105 73 103 71 99 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Colville 62 101 66 103 62 98 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 57 96 62 97 62 91 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Kellogg 61 96 66 96 65 93 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Moses Lake 66 104 71 105 68 99 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 70 100 73 102 70 96 / 0 20 10 10 0 0
Omak 66 101 69 103 64 98 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for East
Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
941 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A stretch of hot summer weather will continue through the week.
Triple digit heat is expected over much of the region on Monday
and Tuesday, and Heat Advisories are in effect. Temperatures are
expected to remain above average Wednesday through Friday, but
high temperatures for the majority of the Inland Northwest will
moderate into the 80s by the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: Minor update this evening to increase skies some
across extreme southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle. This is
largely to account for convective debris spreading from
thunderstorm activity tracking north through eastern Oregon.
The main cluster of thunderstorms are still south of Baker, OR but
satellite reveals cirrus already extending into the Blue Mtns and
this trend will likely continue as HRRR indicates the storms will
hold together for a few hours before dissipating around 9z.
00z guidance in conjunction with water vapor imagery continues to
bring midlevel moisture and instability up the spine of the
Cascades early Monday morning. Unlike Saturday morning, there is
not a clear lifting mechanism or shortwave that will be present to
utilize the 100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE within the 700-500mb layer and
confidence is not exceptionally high that thunderstorms will
materialize. Needless to say, models continue to bring spotty QPF
to portions of southern Chelan County and points south between
12-18z Monday so will leave the 20 PoP inherited however this does
not look as promising as Saturday`s event. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...A ridge of high pressure will be the dominate feature
over the Inland NW through 00z Tue promoting VFR skies and light
winds for most terminals. The one aviation concern will be a
shallow surge of monsoonal moisture trickling up the western
periphery of the ridge leading to increasing midlevel clouds aft
15z. The heart of the moisture tracks up the spine of the Cascades
and could bring an isolated elevated shower or thunderstorm vcnty of
KEAT. Cigs with this activity will generally be 10-15K AGL. There
will also be a brief period of winds incr 10-13kts at KCOE during
the early morning. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 66 99 70 99 67 94 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 64 98 67 98 65 94 / 0 0 10 10 10 0
Pullman 60 99 66 97 63 93 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Lewiston 69 105 73 103 71 99 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
Colville 62 101 66 103 62 98 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Sandpoint 57 96 62 97 62 91 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Kellogg 61 96 66 96 65 93 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
Moses Lake 66 104 71 105 68 99 / 0 10 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 70 100 73 102 70 96 / 0 20 10 10 0 0
Omak 66 101 69 103 64 98 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central
Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis
and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for East
Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-
Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER ORANGE COUNTY AT THIS TIME. SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD
IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH TRAINING A CONCERN AND RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN ORANGE COUNTY...FLASH FLOODING IS A
POSSIBILITY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MAINE...SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...WILL LIFT NNEWD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESS WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES SEEN IN THE 00Z
SOUNDING AND IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NJ
OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA.
THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE
AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WILL MEAN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THESE
AREAS WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE AREA AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND SOME WEAK LIFTING WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE DRYING PROFILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW
BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP. 85H TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME WILL AVERAGE 16 TO 18 DEG C. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
FRI INTO SAT AS SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION THOUGH STILL APPEARS TO
BE SCT IN NATURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER OR DYNAMICS TO
RELY ON.
HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF PCPN.
ONE AREA OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...EXPECT
TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO THE
EVENING.
MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
LATER THIS AFTN...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINS.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TSTM ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT SITES WEST OF
NYC...THOUGH A STRAY TSTM COULD MAKE IT INTO THE CITY TERMINALS.
EXPECTING JUST SHRA OVER LI/CT SITES. PSBL PCPN AGAIN TONIGHT BUT
TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE.
CIGS AND VIS WILL GO UP AND DOWN WITH SPOTTY PCPN. FOR THE
DAY...CURRENTLY THINKING MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE HEAVIER PCPN
MAY BRING IN IFR OR LOWER.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTN.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE TODAY. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER 1-2
HOURS MORE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE TODAY.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTN.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE TODAY.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF TSTMS TODAY. LIGHT PCPN THIS MORNING...BCMG HEAVIER
THIS AFTN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUES-FRI...
SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS...GENERALLY EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING.
IFR OR LOWER PSBL AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND THROUGH 2 PM
THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY.
PERSISTENT S SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT
SCA LEVELS.
A GRADUALLY VEERING SLY FLOW TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD
ALLOW MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO FALL BELOW 5 FT BY
THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
NJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...AND PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES...SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY APPROACH AND EXCEED BANKFULL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
710 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER ORANGE COUNTY AT THIS TIME. SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD
IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH TRAINING A CONCERN AND RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN ORANGE COUNTY...FLASH FLOODING IS A
POSSIBILITY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MAINE...SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...WILL LIFT NNEWD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESS WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES SEEN IN THE 00Z
SOUNDING AND IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NJ
OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA.
THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE
AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WILL MEAN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THESE
AREAS WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE AREA AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND SOME WEAK LIFTING WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING OF THE VERTICAL
COLUMN...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE DRYING PROFILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW
BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP. 85H TEMPS
DURING THIS TIME WILL AVERAGE 16 TO 18 DEG C. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
FRI INTO SAT AS SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION THOUGH STILL APPEARS TO
BE SCT IN NATURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER OR DYNAMICS TO
RELY ON.
HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF PCPN.
ONE AREA OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...EXPECT
TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO THE
EVENING.
MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN...WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TSTM
ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT SITES WEST OF NYC...THOUGH A STRAY TSTM COULD
MAKE IT INTO THE CITY TERMINALS. EXPECTING JUST SHRA OVER LI/CT
SITES. PSBL PCPN AGAIN THIS COMING NIGHT BUT TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE.
CIGS AND VIS WILL GO UP AND DOWN THE REST OF TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING GENERALLY IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. FOR THE
DAY...CURRENTLY THINKING MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE HEAVIER
PCPN MAY BRING IN IFR OR LOWER.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
1-2 HOURS MORE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS
EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF TSTMS TODAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NGT-FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS.
IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE FOG OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND THROUGH 2 PM
THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY.
PERSISTENT S SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT
SCA LEVELS.
A GRADUALLY VEERING SLY FLOW TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD
ALLOW MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO FALL BELOW 5 FT BY
THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
NJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY
RAINS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...AND PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES...SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY APPROACH AND EXCEED BANKFULL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1008 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE PROGGING A WEAKER LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS
NW GA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT FURTHER
WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AS IT GETS AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
IN ADDITION...DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND A FEW OF THEM COULD BE STRONG. ISOLATED SEVERE
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z MODIFIED SOUNDING DID
SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF CAPE.
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE
CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS
ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER
THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH
AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING
OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE CONTENT.
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO
SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A
LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DEESE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS
CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA
IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING
ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER
THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF
INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF
2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD
VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS
WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY
REALISTIC.
01
HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS.
DEESE
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CIGS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO ALL TERMINALS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. SLOW CLEARING THEREAFTER AND KEEP MVFR IN
FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING...ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO NEXT ROUND OF TSRA. BEST LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY TO THE
WEST BUT BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WILL GO WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR AHN AND MCN WITH A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO
INCLUSION LATER TODAY FOR ATL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG DISSIPATION TIMING AND TSRA CHANCES.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 60 50
ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 50 30 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 64 / 60 50 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 50 30 40 50
COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 50 20 30 40
GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 40 50 50
MACON 87 70 86 72 / 50 30 50 40
ROME 87 66 85 68 / 50 30 40 40
PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 50 30 40 40
VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 60 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
744 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE
CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS
ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER
THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH
AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING
OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE CONTENT.
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO
SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A
LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DEESE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS
CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA
IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING
ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER
THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF
INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF
2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD
VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS
WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY
REALISTIC.
01
HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CIGS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO ALL TERMINALS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. SLOW CLEARING THEREAFTER AND KEEP MVFR IN
FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING...ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO NEXT ROUND OF TSRA. BEST LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY TO THE
WEST BUT BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WILL GO WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR AHN AND MCN WITH A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO
INCLUSION LATER TODAY FOR ATL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG DISSIPATION TIMING AND TSRA CHANCES.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 60 50
ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 50 30 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 64 / 60 50 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 50 30 40 50
COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 50 20 30 40
GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 40 50 50
MACON 87 70 86 72 / 50 30 50 40
ROME 87 66 85 68 / 50 30 40 40
PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 50 30 40 40
VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 60 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
950 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A
BERMUDA RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED UPA PTTN CONTS TDA...WITH A DP TROF AXIS
IN THE MIDWEST AND RDGG IN THE WRN ATLC. ERN SEABRD IN MOIST SLY
FLOW...W/ VARIOUS S/WVS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSTMS. WHILE
AMS SATD /PER 12Z LWX RAOB/...PWAT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PROGGED.
NONETHELESS...ANY SHRA/STORM WL HV HIGH WATER CONTENT...AND MULT
STORMS WL HV HIGH THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GDNC. WL HOLD
ONTO FLASH FLOOD WATCH LINEUP AS IT STANDS ATTM.
RGNL RADAR DEPCITS SHRA/STORMS SRRNDG AREA...W/O MUCH ACTIVITY W/IN
CWFA ATTM /ASIDE FM THE CHSPK BAY/. HWVR...THERE/S A SLUG OF MSTR
IN S-CENTRL VA ATTM TRACKING NWD. HRRR SEEMS TO HV THIS AREA
PEGGED FAIRLY WELL...ALTHO IT MAY BE A PINCH TOO FAST. HV THIS
FEATURE AFFECTING CWFA DURING THE MIDDAY HRS.
ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES...AMS WL THEN HV THE CHC TO DSTBLZ. HV
DECENT MID-UPR LVL FLOW PRESENT...SPCLY FOR ELY JULY...YIELDING
BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 30 KT. SEE POCKET OF DRIER AIR ON WATER
VAPOR LOOP THAT CUD BE PROBLEMATIC IF IT GETS HERE. THEREFORE...WL
BE TRANSITIONING FM A WIDER AREA OF RAIN TO A HIT OR MISS TSRA
THREAT MID-LT AFTN...AND CONT THAT SCENARIO THRU THE EVNG. POPS WL
BE LWR THAN MIDDAY...BUT STILL QUITE HIGH.
PAST CPL NGTS HV EXHIBITED A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE PCPN. WL
HOLD ONTO THAT THOUGHT FOR NOW. ANY S/WVS CUD MIX UP THAT GAME
PLAN IN A HURRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER TODAY`S CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE...TUESDAY WILL BE SPREAD A BIT
MORE THINLY OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS...BUT THE OVERHEAD COLUMN WILL BE EVEN
MORE MOIST AND THEREFORE MORE STABLE. PWATS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER
THAN ON MONDAY...SO ISOLATED FLOODING WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY...AND POSSIBLY A DEGREE/TWO
LOWER.
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST AND A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED IN A
ZONE OF HIGH MOISTURE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE AND LIFT FROM SHORTWAVES TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE
MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HAVE RETROGRADED WEST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 INCHES PLUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE A
THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. MODELS
ARE STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE AXES/BANDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SET UP...AND WILL NEED TO RESOLVE THIS WITH
TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP/WEAKEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
THE BERMUDA RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE
RIBBON OF HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO THE WEST AND MOST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. BUT EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR AT LEAST DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA FOR CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE IT WILL BE WARM WITH MAXIMA AROUND
90...CWA MAY ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO SHORTWAVES THAT COULD FIRE
CONVECTION PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VRBL FLGT CONDS ACRS THE AREA...W/ NMRS MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS.
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE A LTL MORE PERSISTENT TWD MIDDAY AS A CLUSTER
OF STORMS APPROACH FM S-CENTRL VA. BYD THAT...A TSRA THREAT REMAINS
BUT IT/LL BE MORE HIT OR MISS...MAKING TIMING FOR A SPECIFIC POINT
DFCLT. LTL CHG TO OVERALL PTTN THRU TUE NGT. VSBYS MAY DROP
QUICKLY BLO IFR W/IN ANY STORM...BUT SHUDNT LAST FOR A PROLONGED
DURATION.
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE WEEK AS A BERMUDA
RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST. WITH HIGH MOISTURE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS/QUICK
VSBY REDUCTIONS CAN OCCUR IN SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...COULD ALSO DEAL WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS.
&&
.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING XPCTD UP THE CHSPK BAY TDA-TNGT. GRADIENT WINDS MAY
BE INTERRUPTED BY SHRA/TSRA...AS IS OCCURING OVER BAY ATTM. HV SCA
IN EFFECT...AND NO PLANS TO CHG THAT.
ANOTHER CONCERN WL BE THE LCL WIND THREAT W/IN ANY STORM. FOR THAT
MATTER...WUDNT BE WILLING TO RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. SMW/S
LKLY AT SOME POINT TAFTN-TNGT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE DURING THE LATE
WEEK...SO SHRA/TSRA MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANY SHRA/TSRA OF COURSE COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH POSSIBLE SCA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT GRADIENT MAY BE A
LITTLE WEAKER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES CONTINUE AT 1/2 TO 1 FT THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
SITES EXCEEDED THEIR CAUTION STAGE WITH THE OVERNIGHT TIDE CYCLE...
BUT ALL SITES REMAINED BELOW FLOOD. THE DAYTIME TIDE CYCLE IS THE
LOWER ONE...AND WITH ANOMALIES FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIC.
THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE SUBSEQUENT CYCLE TONIGHT WILL BE OF MORE CONCERN...
AND COULD BE CLOSE TO MINOR THRESHOLDS AT SENSITIVE LOCATIONS
/SUCH AS ANNAPOLIS...WITH HIGH TIDE AT 158 AM/.
AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OVERALL CHANGES
EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK...SO THIS THREAT WILL
PERSIST DAILY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-
013-014-016>018.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ042-050>057-501-
502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
538.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/BPP
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS/BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...HTS/BPP
MARINE...HTS/BPP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
922 AM MDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE. WEAK
SHORTWAVES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER WEAK SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO SKY COVER BASED ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. THE 01/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES
ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS A
VERY LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FAIRLY LIMITED OTHER THAN THOSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NAM
AND HRRR MODELS. THE ECMWF IS JUST A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH
THE UPPER WAVE AS IS THE GFS. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH A WAVE INTO
THE CWA YESTERDAY INTO YESTERDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...FELT
COMFORTABLE INSERTING A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR EASTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY...LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO
THE 80S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE EAST. WILL GO WITH LOWER HIGHS THERE ANYWAY GIVEN THAT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES CLOSER TO THE CWA WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SUPPRESSION OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A MUCH
GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE IN A RANGE
OF +22C TO +25C ACROSS THE CWA. THIS EASILY SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES
NEAR 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW AREAS PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM...AND
WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 90S.
WEDNESDAY PRESENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AS AIR FLOWS DOWN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE CWA. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +24C AND +30C TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 90 OR
ABOVE DURING THE AFTERNOON VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. ALSO...GIVEN WARM
850MB TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A
WARMER START TO BEGIN WITH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALSO ASSIST
IN MAKING FOR A VERY HOT DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FORMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND WITH FULL VERTICAL MIXING...MID AND UPPER 90S
ARE A POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION. WILL NOT GET OVERLY CARRIED AWAY
JUST YET AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAY PUT A CEILING ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB. THE LATEST
NAM BRINGS IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH COULD SET OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRY HOWEVER FOR THE PERIOD.
INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL ASCENT WHEN NORTHEAST
MONTANA WINDS UP TO THE LEFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH SUCH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING...AS A WAVE APPROACHES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND SO INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION. IF ANYTHING ELSE...CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS COULD ALSO
RESULT IN PUTTING A CAP ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN A FEW PLACES.
THUS...EXPECT BROADLY MID 90S ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...IN AREAS
WHERE FULL VERTICAL MIXING IS REALIZED...AND CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION IS MINIMIZED...CAN EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE UPPER 90S. WHILE A FEW MODELS POINT OUT
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF UPPER 90S BEING MORE WIDESPREAD...SOME OF
THE RELIABLE MODEL BLENDS AND BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL BLENDS POINT
MORE TOWARD MID 90S. THEREFORE...LEANED TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO FOR
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL FURTHER FOR A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING SOMEWHAT HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AS IT IS STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS OUT. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHANCE.
THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MONTANA
BY SATURDAY. WILL SEE FREQUENT SHORTWAVES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A COOLER AND AT TIMES AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN TO THE FORECAST AREA THAT COULD LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BECOME DIFFICULT TO TIME IN THIS PATTERN AND
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME INSTABILITY BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WILL GENERALLY BROADBRUSH FORECAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
IMPACTS: AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG WITH MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
AREA WINDS: EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KGGW...
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR OTHER TERMINALS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN QUEBEC ACROSS OUR WESTERN
NEW YORK TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TODAY AND AGAIN DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SLOW MOVING STORMS AND A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMALS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THE MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE MUGGY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE WEST ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEP 500 MB TROF DIPPING
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SSW FLOW ALOFT.
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOW THIS PICKING UP MOISTURE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND LIFTING IT UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS WHERE ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS. FOR
THE MOST PART...THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROF AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LIONS SHARE OF THIS MOISTURE TO OUR EAST TODAY.
A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS ALL POINT
TO THE GREATEST QPFS ACROSS EASTERN PA/NY...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NOW EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RADAR TREND
SUGGEST THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK.
WHILE THE LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY MISS WESTERN NEW
YORK...THERE IS A MORE SUBTLE FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...EXTENDING BACK TO CENTRAL OHIO. 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT NOW IT CAPTURES BOTH AREAS
SEPARATELY...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF MOST RUNS OF THE HRRR.
BECAUSE THESE LATTER MODELS ARE MATCHING RADAR TRENDS BETTER THAN
OLDER RUNS...SUSPECT THEY ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH A BETTER
HANDLE ON SUBTLE WAVES OF MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF THE GULF. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT...WITH 700 MB WINDS ONLY 10 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STALL ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. WHILE
GRID-SCALE QPFS FOR TODAY ONLY PEAK AT AN INCH...STALLED STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
BECAUSE OF THIS RISK...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AREA FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM SE-NW TODAY...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD
LIFT EAST OF THE REGION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SOME
ENHANCED MOISTURE WHILE BRINGING THE HEAVIEST RAINS JUST TO OUR
EAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SLIGHTLY WHEN COMPARED
WITH YESTERDAY.
FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE EXIT OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF
MOISTURE. WHILE IT IS TOO FAR TO BE TRACED ON SATELLITE...ADDITIONAL
WAVES ARE LIKELY...AND WITH THE SURFACE TROF LIKELY TO BE A BIT
FURTHER WEST...ANY WAVE WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF CROSSING OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD POSE
ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE
LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS TIME PERIOD AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN
WILL FAVOR DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SUCH THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD.
TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THROUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO START THE DAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF WNY AND NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AS THE LIKELIEST PLACE FOR THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SATURATED GROUND...MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHICH WILL ALSO PUSH THE SURFACE TROF AXIS FURTHER WEST.
WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
ON WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS BY WEDNESDAY CLIMB BACK
UPWARDS TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH
WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME FORMING GIVING THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST
FLOW. TRADITIONALLY THESE LAKE BREEZES WILL PLACE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. WILL PLACE LIKELY POPS HERE WHILE HOLDING THE
REMAINING AREAS UNDER A CHANCE POP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OF THE LAKE BREEZES DIMINISH
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH 850
HPA TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BETWEEN 14 AND 16C ACROSS THE CWA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT NIGHT
TIME...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND A POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
ON THURSDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD PWATS
WILL CLIMB UPWARDS TOWARDS 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ONTARIO WILL BE
MORE LIKELY THURSDAY...WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING A STABLE AIRMASS
INLAND LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE OPEN WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS
ALLOWS THE BERMUDA HIGH TO PRESS FARTHER INLAND. THIS PUSH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BACK THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AND SHIFT THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI. WILL
STILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
LAKE BREEZES MAY TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THIS MOISTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY START TO
ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING A HEIGHTEN RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THOUGH WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
START THIS TIME PERIOD...AND HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD TO
AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND SOME
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES... VFR CONDS PREVAIL THIS
MORNING. THE LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWEST BRINGING THE MVFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS FURTHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LIKELY TO RESULT IN MOSTLY MVFR CIGS. CONDS AT KJHW
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR WITH FOG.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A MODEST NE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP
BUILD WAVES ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WEST-CENTRAL
LAKE ERIE. EXPECT SCA CRITERIA ON WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND LK ERIE
WEST OF DUNKIRK FOR WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/LEVAN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/LEVAN
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
730 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN QUEBEC DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TODAY AND AGAIN
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SLOW MOVING STORMS AND A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMALS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THE MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE MUGGY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE WEST ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEP 500 MB TROF DIPPING
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SSW FLOW ALOFT.
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOW THIS PICKING UP MOISTURE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND LIFTING IT UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS WHERE ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS. FOR
THE MOST PART...THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROF AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LIONS SHARE OF THIS MOISTURE TO OUR EAST TODAY.
A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS ALL POINT
TO THE GREATEST QPFS ACROSS EASTERN PA/NY...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NOW EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RADAR TREND
SUGGEST THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK.
WHILE THE LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY MISS WESTERN NEW
YORK...THERE IS A MORE SUBTLE FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...EXTENDING BACK TO CENTRAL OHIO. 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT NOW IT CAPTURES BOTH AREAS
SEPARATELY...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF MOST RUNS OF THE HRRR.
BECAUSE THESE LATTER MODELS ARE MATCHING RADAR TRENDS BETTER THAN
OLDER RUNS...SUSPECT THEY ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH A BETTER
HANDLE ON SUBTLE WAVES OF MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF THE GULF. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT...WITH 700 MB WINDS ONLY 10 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STALL ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. WHILE
GRID-SCALE QPFS FOR TODAY ONLY PEAK AT AN INCH...STALLED STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
BECAUSE OF THIS RISK...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AREA FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM SE-NW TODAY...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD
LIFT EAST OF THE REGION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SOME
ENHANCED MOISTURE WHILE BRINGING THE HEAVIEST RAINS JUST TO OUR
EAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SLIGHTLY WHEN COMPARED
WITH YESTERDAY.
FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE EXIT OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF
MOISTURE. WHILE IT IS TOO FAR TO BE TRACED ON SATELLITE...ADDITIONAL
WAVES ARE LIKELY...AND WITH THE SURFACE TROF LIKELY TO BE A BIT
FURTHER WEST...ANY WAVE WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF CROSSING OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD POSE
ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE
LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS TIME PERIOD AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN
WILL FAVOR DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SUCH THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD.
TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THROUGH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO START THE DAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF WNY AND NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AS THE LIKELIEST PLACE FOR THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SATURATED GROUND...MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARD
OUR REGION WHICH WILL ALSO PUSH THE SURFACE TROF AXIS FURTHER WEST.
WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
ON WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS BY WEDNESDAY CLIMB BACK
UPWARDS TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH
WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME FORMING GIVING THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST
FLOW. TRADITIONALLY THESE LAKE BREEZES WILL PLACE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. WILL PLACE LIKELY POPS HERE WHILE HOLDING THE
REMAINING AREAS UNDER A CHANCE POP.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OF THE LAKE BREEZES DIMINISH
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH 850
HPA TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BETWEEN 14 AND 16C ACROSS THE CWA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT NIGHT
TIME...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND A POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
ON THURSDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD PWATS
WILL CLIMB UPWARDS TOWARDS 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ONTARIO WILL BE
MORE LIKELY THURSDAY...WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING A STABLE AIRMASS
INLAND LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE OPEN WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS
ALLOWS THE BERMUDA HIGH TO PRESS FARTHER INLAND. THIS PUSH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BACK THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AND SHIFT THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI. WILL
STILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
LAKE BREEZES MAY TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THIS MOISTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY START TO
ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING A HEIGHTEN RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THOUGH WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
START THIS TIME PERIOD...AND HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD TO
AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND SOME
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT PRIMARILY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS...AS
SHOWERS HELP A LOW CLOUD DECK EXPAND IN THE NE FLOW. A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT FROM SE TO NW
TODAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE AT JHW...WHERE THERE IS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LESSER IMPACT ON THE OTHER TAF
LOCATIONS...BUT MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER VSBY TO 3SM OR LESS IN
MODERATE SHOWERS.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH CONTINUED LOW
MOISTURE LIKELY TO RESULT IN MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS. CIGS
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AT JHW...BUT A MODEST WIND SHOULD LIMIT
FOG POTENTIAL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR EACH
DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A MODEST NE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP
BUILD WAVES ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WEST-CENTRAL
LAKE ERIE. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA BRIEFLY TODAY ON
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS MARGINAL ON LAKE ERIE...BUT CONSIDERING
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT...WILL ISSUE AN SCA FOR LAKE ERIE
WEST OF DUNKIRK...MAINLY FOR WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
725 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF
HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A
LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES
ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES
NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST
OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT
PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES.
NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU
THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND
AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE
DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING
LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT
TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF
CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE
FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP
OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT.
CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY
DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED.
HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN
GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE TEMPS.
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST CONTINUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MVFR WITH EMBEDDED
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ENGULFED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE
TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE
OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE
STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN
THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT.
OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
4 PM UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN
FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING
BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY
DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY.
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT.
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW
RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC
FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL
FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND
DELAWARE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY,
CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO
TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING
HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE
THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN
INCH IN THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037-
044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
933 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR
CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND AN UPDATE OF LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES WERE COSMETIC TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST...A SUNNY AND
QUIET MONDAY IS FORECAST.
GIVEN LITTLE SPREAD IN 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WILL UTILIZE A
BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
GREATER PORTION OF THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE 07 UTC HRRR WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00
UTC 4KM WRF...AND 00 UTC NAM/GFS AND 03 UTC SREF. ALL DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
QUICKLY FADE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET WITH A CLEAR AND QUIET
MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEK. 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR
CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE LAS VEGAS CENTERED RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.
BY LATE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DIRECT MORE VIGOROUS
MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING OF THE STRONGEST LOW AMONG 00 UTC
ECMWF/GEFS/GFS/GEM GLOBAL DIFFERS BY UP TO 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S AS
THE POLAR FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES WERE COSMETIC TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST...A SUNNY AND
QUIET MONDAY IS FORECAST.
GIVEN LITTLE SPREAD IN 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WILL UTILIZE A
BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
GREATER PORTION OF THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE 07 UTC HRRR WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00
UTC 4KM WRF...AND 00 UTC NAM/GFS AND 03 UTC SREF. ALL DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
QUICKLY FADE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET WITH A CLEAR AND QUIET
MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEK. 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR
CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE LAS VEGAS CENTERED RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.
BY LATE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DIRECT MORE VIGOROUS
MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING OF THE STRONGEST LOW AMONG 00 UTC
ECMWF/GEFS/GFS/GEM GLOBAL DIFFERS BY UP TO 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S AS
THE POLAR FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1132 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT RUNS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CWA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING...AND 1-3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY UNDER 1.5
INCHES.
THE QUASI STNRY-HARD TO FIND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PRETTY MUCH BISECTS THE STATE FROM NE TO SW. RADAR SHOWS
THE SLOW MOVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA.
WITH THE JET ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN PLACE...AND FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE BEING PRETTY LOW...IT ARGUES FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE
FLASH FLOOD WARNING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW HARD AREAS IN THE
WARNING GOT HIT LATE LAST WEEK.
THE BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS THE RELENTLESS SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING
BASICALLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE LATEST
SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO BE ENTERING THE CAROLINAS...WHICH IS HELPING
INFLUENCE A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...EYES ARE ON A NEW AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU
VIRGINIA HEADING FOR MY SRN ZONES AS THE BROKEN RECORD OF LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES.
FROM EARLIER...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH - 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH
THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM AREAS OF TRAINING SHRA/TSRA.
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD
THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WELL DEFINED
JET ENTRANCE REGION SITUATED ACROSS PENN AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION
AND HELP TO BLOSSOM/MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSRA. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE A TONGUE OF HIGH 925-850 MB THETA-E AIR IS RIDES NWWD
AND IS LIFTED ABOVE THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHICALLY.
THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING TRAINING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES....AND PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT IN CENTRAL PENN.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS
TODAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F.
0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO
CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
FAVORABLE...THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT
FURTHER NORTH/WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER OVER THE
MIDDLE MISS VALLEY RETROGRADES A BIT...AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVES /AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJS...PROVIDING ENHANCED MESOSCALE
UVVEL/ LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN A TEMPORARY
TREND TWD DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...AND LIGHTER SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSRA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-10Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4-5
TENTHS...ACCOUNTING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TAFS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM WITH WILDLY FLUCTUATING CEILINGS AND
VIZ DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE AND ARE NOT. CAN EXPECT
CONTINUED MVFR/IFR OVER NWRN AREAS WHERE RAIN IS ONLY SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...ANYTHING FROM VFR TO IFR AS
NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM AND MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
FCST AREA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT RUNS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CWA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING...AND 1-3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY UNDER 1.5
INCHES.
QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBGM...TO KSEG AND KHGR AT
11Z. THIS FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH - 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF
A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/ TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
FROM AREAS OF TRAINING SHRA/TSRA.
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD
THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WELL DEFINED
JET ENTRANCE REGION SITUATED ACROSS PENN AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION
AND HELP TO BLOSSOM/MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSRA. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE A TONGUE OF HIGH 925-850 MB THETA-E AIR IS RIDES NWWD
AND IS LIFTED ABOVE THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHICALLY.
THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING TRAINING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES....AND PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT IN CENTRAL PENN.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS
TODAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F.
0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO
CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
FAVORABLE...THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT
FURTHER NORTH/WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER OVER THE
MIDDLE MISS VALLEY RETROGRADES A BIT...AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVES /AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJS...PROVIDING ENHANCED MESOSCALE
UVVEL/ LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN A TEMPORARY
TREND TWD DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...AND LIGHTER SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSRA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-10Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4-5
TENTHS...ACCOUNTING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS FOR THE 01/12Z CYCLE.
NMRS SHOWERS WITH OCNL/LCL +TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACRS THE AIRSPACE
TDY AS SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF MS VLY UPPER TROUGH AND WRN ATLC
RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANNELING OF DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW FROM THE
APPLCHNS TO THE EAST COAST...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AXIS OF VERY HIGH
MSTR. EXPECT THE LOCALLY HVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH TO
NORTH - IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TDY. THUS HAVE
INDICATED VCSH/VCTS/SHRA IN ALL TAFS GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WDSPRD CVRG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IN THIS PATTERN
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR/MVFR EARLY
GIVING WAY TO PM MVFR/VFR. IFR VIS WILL BE LKLY IN ANY +RA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
721 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT RUNS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CWA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED FOR THE REST OF THIS
MORNING...AND 1-3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY UNDER 1.5
INCHES.
QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBGM...TO KSEG AND KHGR AT
11Z. THIS FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH - 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF
A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/ TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
FROM AREAS OF TRAINING SHRA/TSRA.
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD
THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WELL DEFINED
JET ENTRANCE REGION SITUATED ACROSS PENN AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION
AND HELP TO BLOSSOM/MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSRA. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE A TONGUE OF HIGH 925-850 MB THETA-E AIR IS RIDES NWWD
AND IS LIFTED ABOVE THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHICALLY.
THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING TRAINING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES....AND PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT IN CENTRAL PENN.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS
TODAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F.
0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO
CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
FAVORABLE...THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT
FURTHER NORTH/WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER OVER THE
MIDDLE MISS VALLEY RETROGRADES A BIT...AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVES /AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJS...PROVIDING ENHANCED MESOSCALE
UVVEL/ LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN A TEMPORARY
TREND TWD DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...AND LIGHTER SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSRA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-10Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4-5
TENTHS...ACCOUNTING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NMRS SHOWERS WITH OCNL +TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACRS THE AIRSPACE TDY
AS SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF MS VLY UPPER TROUGH AND WRN ATLC
RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANNELING OF DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW FROM THE
APPLCHNS TO THE EAST COAST...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AXIS OF VERY HIGH
MSTR. EXPECT THE LOCALLY HVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH TO
NORTH - IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TDY. THUS HAVE
INDICATED VCSH/VCTS/SHRA IN ALL TAFS GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WDSPRD CVRG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IN THIS PATTERN
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR/MVFR EARLY
GIVING WAY TO PM MVFR/VFR. IFR VIS WILL BE LKLY IN ANY +RA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
610 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE ANOTHER 2-3
LAYERS OF COUNTY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF
THE SUSQUEHANNA...AND EXTENDED TIL 06Z TUESDAY.
QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KELM TO KUNV AND KMRB...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH
THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ WILL ALL COMBINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM RELATIVELY NARROW BANDS OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA.
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD
THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WELL DEFINED
JET ENTRANCE REGION SITUATED ACROSS PENN AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION
AND HELP TO BLOSSOM A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA.
THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING TRAINING SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES....AND PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT
IN CENTRAL PENN.
BASIN AVG RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1.5-2 INCHES EAST OF THE SUSQ
MAINSTEM...DOWN TO ONLY AROUND 0.5 INCH ACROSS WARREN COUNTY. NARROW
BANDS OF HEAVIER 3+ INCH AMTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN FOR
ABOUT AN HOUR.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL FALL ANOTHER FEW DEG F...REACHING A MID
MORNING LOW IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THE WARM...EASTERN SIDE OF THE
QUASI STNRY SFC FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA.
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP ACROSS THE
SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F.
0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO
CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
FAVORABLE...THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT
FURTHER NORTH/WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER OVER THE
MIDDLE MISS VALLEY RETROGRADES A BIT...AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVES /AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJS...PROVIDING ENHANCED MESOSCALE
UVVEL/ LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN A TEMPORARY
TREND TWD DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...AND LIGHTER SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSRA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-10Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4-5
TENTHS...ACCOUNTING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NMRS SHOWERS WITH OCNL +TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACRS THE AIRSPACE TDY
AS SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF MS VLY UPPER TROUGH AND WRN ATLC
RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANNELING OF DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW FROM THE
APPLCHNS TO THE EAST COAST...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AXIS OF VERY HIGH
MSTR. EXPECT THE LOCALLY HVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH TO
NORTH - IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TDY. THUS HAVE
INDICATED VCSH/VCTS/SHRA IN ALL TAFS GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WDSPRD CVRG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IN THIS PATTERN
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR/MVFR EARLY
GIVING WAY TO PM MVFR/VFR. IFR VIS WILL BE LKLY IN ANY +RA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ012-018-019-
026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
557 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...INCREASINGLY HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE ANOTHER 2-3
LAYERS OF COUNTY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF
THE SUSQUEHANNA...AND EXTENDED TIL 06Z TUESDAY.
QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KELM TO KUNV AND KMRB...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH
THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ WILL ALL COMBINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM RELATIVELY NARROW BANDS OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA.
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD
THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR
HEAVY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR
GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS ON SMALL TRIBS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...EAST INTO SCHUYLKILL CTY. THE TAIL END OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES /ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA/ APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING NWD ACROSS LANCASTER CTY ATTM. THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SERN NEW YORK.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST...THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
WILL BE MUCH LOWER AND 0.25 INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL FALL ANOTHER FEW DEG F...REACHING A MID
MORNING LOW IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THE WARM...EASTERN SIDE OF THE
QUASI STNRY SFC FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
A SECOND...POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP THE APPALACHIANS WILL SPREAD
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MONDAY.
SREF AND GEFS BOTH BRING A PWAT ANOMALY OF 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY...ALONG WITH
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH ENS MEAN QPF BTWN
NOW AND THIS AFTN IS A RELATIVELY MODEST 1 INCH OR SO ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
APPEAR VERY LIKELY BASED ON OPER MDL QPF AND PWAT ANOMALIES.
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL BTWN 12Z-18Z OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST 01/00Z OPER AND ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY LOCATED SOMEWHERE BTWN THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY. FFG REMAINS LOW IN THIS AREA...AND SOME MDL
DATA PLACES FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN RIGHT IN THIS AREA.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4KM.
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F.
0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO
CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NMRS SHOWERS WITH OCNL +TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACRS THE AIRSPACE TDY
AS SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF MS VLY UPPER TROUGH AND WRN ATLC
RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANNELING OF DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW FROM THE
APPLCHNS TO THE EAST COAST...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AXIS OF VERY HIGH
MSTR. EXPECT THE LOCALLY HVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH TO
NORTH - IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TDY. THUS HAVE
INDICATED VCSH/VCTS/SHRA IN ALL TAFS GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WDSPRD CVRG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IN THIS PATTERN
EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR/MVFR EARLY
GIVING WAY TO PM MVFR/VFR. IFR VIS WILL BE LKLY IN ANY +RA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ012-018-019-
026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
315 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...INCREASINGLY HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE ANOTHER 2-3
LAYERS OF COUNTY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF
THE SUSQUEHANNA...AND EXTENDED TIL 06Z TUESDAY.
QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KELM TO KUNV AND KMRB...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH
THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ WILL ALL COMBINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM RELATIVELY NARROW BANDS OF
TRAINING SHRA/TSRA.
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD
THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR
HEAVY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR
GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS ON SMALL TRIBS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...EAST INTO SCHUYLKILL CTY. THE TAIL END OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES /ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA/ APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING NWD ACROSS LANCASTER CTY ATTM. THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SERN NEW YORK.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST...THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
WILL BE MUCH LOWER AND 0.25 INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL FALL ANOTHER FEW DEG F...REACHING A MID
MORNING LOW IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THE WARM...EASTERN SIDE OF THE
QUASI STNRY SFC FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
A SECOND...POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP THE APPALACHIANS WILL SPREAD
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MONDAY.
SREF AND GEFS BOTH BRING A PWAT ANOMALY OF 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY...ALONG WITH
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH ENS MEAN QPF BTWN
NOW AND THIS AFTN IS A RELATIVELY MODEST 1 INCH OR SO ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
APPEAR VERY LIKELY BASED ON OPER MDL QPF AND PWAT ANOMALIES.
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL BTWN 12Z-18Z OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST 01/00Z OPER AND ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY LOCATED SOMEWHERE BTWN THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY. FFG REMAINS LOW IN THIS AREA...AND SOME MDL
DATA PLACES FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN RIGHT IN THIS AREA.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION...BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4KM.
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F.
0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO
CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RORTAING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...GIVEN ISOLATED STORMS LIFTING NORTH
FROM BWI.
AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SEPERATES THE NE TO N FLOW
NEAR THE LAKES FROM THE S TO SE FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A DAILY CHC OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PW VALUES WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH HUMIDITY
LEVELS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLDS
LATE EACH NIGHT.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT COULD RESULT AS THE RIDGE EDGES WESTWARD
SOME EACH DAY...BUT THIS MAY CAUSE THE MOST WIDSPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE FAR WESTERN AREAS AS WELL.
FOR MONDAY...WENT WITH VCSH DURING THE AFT. AREAS THAT GET
THE MOST HEATING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR.
HAVE NOT HAD MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIDGE DANCERS AT NIGHT SO FAR...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH MOUNTAIN...BUT WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS THIS
WEEK WITH ANY OF THE EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR...BUT STILL WITH AREAS OF LOWER
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ012-018-019-
026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1102 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
APPROACHES...THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN TO OUR EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...NVA BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROF SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
COMBINED WITH COOL CONDITIONS UNDER LOW STRATUS SEEM TO HAVE STIFLED
CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY. LATEST MESO MODEL RUNS INDICATE ONLY ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTN...WITH THE MTNS FAVORED AS USUAL. NEW
12Z NAM AS WELL AS 11Z HRRR INDICATE SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM
EAST TN LATE THIS AFTN...APPARENTLY FORCED BY LOBES OF VORT ON E
SIDE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. DESPITE THE CLOUDS MODEL CAPES NEAR 1000 J
STILL SHOWN OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING PEAK HEATING. NEW POPS SHOW
SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN BECOMING NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER FORCING RETURNS. REVISED TEMP TRENDS...ADJUSTING HIGHS DOWN
SLIGHTLY.
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...DIVIDING RICH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FROM SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN
THE UPPER TN RIVER VALLEY.
THE MODELS SHOW A RELATIVE DRY SLOT MOVING NORTH OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT TODAY IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER VORT LOBE MOVING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW...AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONFIRMS THIS. THIS DRY
SLOT MAY PROVIDE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IN THE FOOTHILLS...BUT WITH
GREATER MOISTURE TO THE EAST...A LULL SEEMS LESS CERTAIN IN THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR...AND THE FLOOD WATCH THERE WILL BE
MAINTAINED.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...AS WELL
AS SOME UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE
ROUNDS THE UPPER LOW. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A POP MAXIMA ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS...AND ANOTHER IN THE PIEDMONT
NEAR A RIVER OF MOISTURE FED FORM THE SOUTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH.
CAPE WILL BE BEST IN THE EAST...AND SHEAR BEST IN THE WEST...BUT
ENOUGH OVERLAP WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY IN UNDER BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN A
MOIST AIR MASS UNDER CLOUDS COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT BETWEEN A STRONG...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE A FOUND A
RIVER OF EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST AIR. TUE AND TUE NIGHT THE GFS KEEPS
THE STRONGEST LLVL WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS IS WHERE IT
GENERATES THE HEAVIEST PCPN AS WELL. IT LIFTS THIS LLVL JET
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OF VIRGINIA TUE NIGHT
WHILE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA VEERS AROUND TO
THE SSW. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT MUCH LIKE WHAT WE ARE SEEING
TONIGHT...THE FAVORED TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS
ACTIVITY MIGHT BE A LITTLE EAST OF OUR FA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL
BE EXPERIENCING UPSLOPE FLOW AND WE WILL STILL BE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER JET WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
WHILE I HOPE WE MISS MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...THIS
IS BY NO MEANS A SURE BET. EVEN IN THE BEST CASE WE WOULD STILL SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BOTH SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. UNFORTUNATELY THIS PUTS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BUSINESS END OF THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND CORE OF THE STRONGEST LLVL WINDS ALONG WITH PW/S
SURGING WELL OVER 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THOSE LLVL WINDS ARE ONLY ON
THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS...BUT THAT/S PLENTY TO HELP DEVELOP HEAVY
RAIN IN THIS KIND OF TROPICAL PATTERN. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN SOME PARTS OF THE FA. I/VE RAISED POPS
TO 70-80 PERCENT AND ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. IN FACT...I RAN
THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. AT SOME POINT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FARTHER TO THE WEST,..BUT THAT PROBABLY WON/T HAPPEN UNTIL LATER
TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THAT
WILL BE SLOW TO DISSOLVE. BY NEW DAY 7 ON SUN...THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED H5 LOW AND ITS PARENT
UPPER TROF WILL STILL LIKELY BE OBSERVABLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE.
THIS IMPLIES THAT THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGES WILL
MAINTAIN THEIR STRUCTURE TO SOME DEGREE BEYOND NEW DAY 7...THEREBY
LEAVING US IN MORE OF A FLAT...ZONAL PATTERN BY THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE.
AT THE SFC...NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE
PERIOD AS THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINS ITS CONTROL OVER THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THRU NEW DAY 7. MOIST SELY FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT.
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES WESTWARD...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NW THRU THE PERIOD AND BY NEW DAY
7...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE
SHIFTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WITH THAT SAID...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST. I DO TAPER OFF POPS ON
SAT AND SUN TO CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE. FLOODING WILL BE A MAJOR
CONCERN THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
TEMPS WILL START OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND GRADUALLY WARM TO
NEAR CLIMO AS THICKNESSES INCREASE AND OVERALL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR A TIME THIS MRNG
THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE STRATUS DECK IS BREAKING UP
WITH MIXING. NEWEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
PROMOTING INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO HINTS AT A SECOND ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING. INCLUDED A PROB30 MVFR TSRA FOR THAT
POSSIBILITY. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST.
ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM HAS
PRODUCED A LULL IN PRECIPITATION TODAY. HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY TOWARD DAWN ON TUESDAY. WINDS WIL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...NUMEROUS...MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. WIDESPREAD MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
UNUSUALLY MOIST.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z
KCLT HIGH 93% HIGH 94% HIGH 82% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 95% HIGH 97% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 97% HIGH 98% HIGH 84% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 97% MED 72% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 97% HIGH 97% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 98% HIGH 97% HIGH 92% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-037-
056-057-069>072-082.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ELSEWHERE. MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SUPPORTS A GENERALLY
SWLY STORM MOVEMENT INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON VARIOUS MESOSCALE
MODELS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD INTO
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS WRN SECTIONS.
AS WAS THE CASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE 18Z RUC HRRR
DEVELOPS ADDITIONAL PRECIP ECHOES ACROSS ERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION THRU WED. UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SWD INTO ARIZONA
BY SAT. AS WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...THERE WERE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE 01/12Z GFS/ECMWF PARTICULARLY REGARDING QPF/S. HAVE
NOTED THAT THE 01/12Z ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTIONS
WITH DEPICTING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED QPF/S DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. GIVEN THIS CONTINUITY...HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD PARTICULARLY
WED EVENING AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING VERSUS PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. ASSUMING AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WED EVENING...
THUR MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUN-MON. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL JUSTIFY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM TUCSON EWD WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY.
DAYTIME TEMPS TUE AND CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z...
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA/-SHRA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. MOVEMENT WILL GENERALLY BE NE-SW. GUSTS TO 60 KTS WITH MVFR
VSBYS IN BLDU ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THRU
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED EAST MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
STORMS WILL BE HEAVIEST IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD SPREAD TO
SOME VALLEY AREAS. STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
BF/MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
315 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY...
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 1230PM ONE OF THESE SHORT WVS IS EXITING THE E PTNS OF THE
FCA...WMFNT MOISTURE/-SHRA SURGES ARE DEVELOPING FM W/CNTRL NYS
TWRD ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF AREA WILL BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS TILL
DIURNALLY CONVECTION FIRES IN S. WMFNT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALREADY
WATER LOGGED AREAS OF W MHWK VLY AND W ADNDKS.
ATM HRRR HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED ATTM. DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THE NEXT SHORT WV COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS OVERSPREADING RGN AFT 21UTC....PARTICULARLY
N OF MSV-BRATTLEBORO LN. WRF HAS FRONTAL OUTBREAK A TAD FURTHER S.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BYND. WITH RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER
SATURATED...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO
RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT
REMAIN. WMFMT SURGES (OVERRUNNING) PCPN MAX AREA FM ADIRONDACKS
INTO SVT OVERNIGHT ON NAM...GFS ACROSS MOST OF FCA...GEM TRACKS IT
BWTN. WHILE TIMING AND LOCALES MAY BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...THE
THREAT OF SURGES OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N
ADIRONDACKS.
TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN
ASSOC WITH WMFNTL/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE
BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD.
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL
AT.
WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL
PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O
INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS
WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY
AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY
THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP.
NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS.
LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE
SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE EFP MAJOR W ATLC ANTICYCLONE AT SFC AND 500HPA (KNOWN
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH) RETROGRADES TO THE ATLC SEABOARD..AS THE
500HPA TROF RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS.
THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FCA FRI...THE GFS
SHIFTS IT OUT OF THE FCA FOR THE WEEKEND AND BACK MONDAY. THE GEM
DISPLACES IT FURTHER N AND W TO W PERIPHERY...AND ECMWF HAS IT
DRIFTING IN AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE VARIABLE SUNSHINE...VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH CHC MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS. THE THREAT WILL
BE LEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S TO ARND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE VSBYS HAVE
GENERALLY INCREASED ABOVE 6 SM...CIGS REMAINS MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES
FOR EARLY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD REDUCE
VSBYS/CIGS BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
DUE TO LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND THERE IS NOT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MAINLY LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S. THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING.
THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS. STILL...FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY REMAIN MVFR WITH SOME BKN LOWER CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-SAT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY...
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 1230PM ONE OF THESE SHORT WVS IS EXITING THE E PTNS OF THE
FCA...WMFNT MOISTURE/-SHRA SURGES ARE DEVELOPING FM W/CNTRL NYS
TWRD ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF AREA WILL BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS TILL
DIURNALLY CONVECTION FIRES IN S. WMFNT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALREADY
WATER LOGGED AREAS OF W MHWK VLY AND W ADNDKS.
ATM HRRR HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED ATTM. DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THE NEXT SHORT WV COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS OVERSPREADING RGN AFT 21UTC....PARTICULARLY
N OF MSV-BRATTLEBORO LN. WRF HAS FRONTAL OUTBREAK A TAD FURTHER S.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BYND. WITH RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER
SATURATED...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO
RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT
REMAIN. WMFMT SURGES (OVERRUNNING) PCPN MAX AREA FM ADIRONDACKS
INTO SVT OVERNIGHT ON NAM...GFS ACROSS MOST OF FCA...GEM TRACKS IT
BWTN. WHILE TIMING AND LOCALES MAY BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...THE
THREAT OF SURGES OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N
ADIRONDACKS.
TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN
ASSOC WITH WMFNTL/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE
BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD.
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL
AT.
WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL
PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O
INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS
WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY
AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY
THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP.
NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS.
LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE
SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES THE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH INFLUENCING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DECREASING TREND IN THE POPS EXTENDS INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEKEND...AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THEN THE BERMUDA
HIGH MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.
FRI TO SAT...A BROKEN RECORD...REPEAT PATTERN OF ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION TO ENTER THE
WEEKEND. THE POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES ON SATURDAY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOW CHC MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WITH THE SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MAKING PROGRESS. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MAINLY 80S AND L90S...AND LOWS IN THE
60S TO L70S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLE OR
OPPRESSIVE.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA...AND THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GFS/ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING ZONAL.
THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO BUILDS WESTWARD AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
IS STILL AN ISOLD THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.
SFC DEWPTS MAY DROP IN THE LOWER TO M60S WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE...AS
HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHS PEAKS. LOWS IN THE 60S WILL PREVAIL.
OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH PCPN STILL POTENTIALLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS. NO IMMEDIATE RELIEF WITH MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE VSBYS HAVE
GENERALLY INCREASED ABOVE 6 SM...CIGS REMAINS MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES
FOR EARLY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD REDUCE
VSBYS/CIGS BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
DUE TO LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND THERE IS NOT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MAINLY LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S. THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING.
THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS. STILL...FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY REMAIN MVFR WITH SOME BKN LOWER CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-SAT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11/NAS
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...WFO ALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY...
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 1230PM ONE OF THESE SHORT WVS IS EXITING THE E PTNS OF THE
FCA...WMFNT MOISTURE/-SHRA SURGES ARE DEVELOPING FM W/CNTRL NYS
TWRD ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF AREA WILL BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS TILL
DIURNALLY CONVECTION FIRES IN S. WMFNT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALREADY
WATER LOGGED AREAS OF W MHWK VLY AND W ADNDKS.
ATM HRRR HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED ATTM. DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THE NEXT SHORT WV COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS OVERSPREADING RGN AFT 21UTC....PARTICULARLY
N OF MSV-BRATTLEBORO LN. WRF HAS FRONTAL OUTBREAK A TAD FURTHER S.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BYND. WITH RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER
SATURATED...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO
RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT
REMAIN. WMFMT SURGES (OVERRUNNING) PCPN MAX AREA FM ADIRONDACKS
INTO SVT OVERNIGHT ON NAM...GFS ACROSS MOST OF FCA...GEM TRACKS IT
BWTN. WHILE TIMING AND LOCALES MAY BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...THE
THREAT OF SURGES OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N
ADIRONDACKS.
TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN
ASSOC WITH WMFNTL/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE
BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD.
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY
PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL
AT.
WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL
PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O
INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS
WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY
AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL
BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY
THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP.
NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS.
LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE
SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES THE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH INFLUENCING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DECREASING TREND IN THE POPS EXTENDS INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEKEND...AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THEN THE BERMUDA
HIGH MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.
FRI TO SAT...A BROKEN RECORD...REPEAT PATTERN OF ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION TO ENTER THE
WEEKEND. THE POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES ON SATURDAY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOW CHC MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WITH THE SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MAKING PROGRESS. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MAINLY 80S AND L90S...AND LOWS IN THE
60S TO L70S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLE OR
OPPRESSIVE.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA...AND THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GFS/ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING ZONAL.
THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO BUILDS WESTWARD AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
IS STILL AN ISOLD THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.
SFC DEWPTS MAY DROP IN THE LOWER TO M60S WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE...AS
HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHS PEAKS. LOWS IN THE 60S WILL PREVAIL.
OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH PCPN STILL POTENTIALLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS. NO IMMEDIATE RELIEF WITH MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU.
THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE LATE MORNING
KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. THE RAIN MAY BECOME
STEADIER AND HEAVIER JUST BEFORE NOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VSBYS WERE LOWERED IN THE IFR RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CIGS WERE
KEPT IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPSF. ALL THE TERMINALS MAY NEED IFR CIGS WITH LATER
TAF ISSUANCES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND IT HAS
BEEN KEPT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW PROBS /30 PERCENT OR LESS/.
THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TOO.
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN MAY LESSEN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE SITES.
THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE N/NE FROM KALB NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10
KTS...BUT VEER TO THE S AT KPOU AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11/NAS
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1239 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE
ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY
WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY...
A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE
A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO
THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF
-SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING
SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW.
AT 1230PM ONE OF THESE SHORT WVS IS EXITING THE E PTNS OF THE
FCA...WMFNT MOISTURE/-SHRA SURGES ARE DEVELOPING FM W/CNTRL NYS
TWRD ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF AREA WILL BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS TILL
DIURNALLY CONVECTION FIRES IN S. WMFNT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALREADY
WATER LOGGED AREAS OF W MHWK VLY AND W ADNDKS.
ATM HRRR HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED ATTM. DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THE NEXT SHORT WV COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS OVERSPREADING RGN AFT 21UTC....PARTICULARLY
N OF MSV-BRATTLEBORO LN. WRF HAS FRONTAL OUTBREAK A TAD FURTHER S.
WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BYND. WITH RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER
SATURATED...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO
RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
TONIGHT THE AIR MASS AND WMFNT REMAIN. WMFMT SURGES(OVERRUNNING)
PCPN MAX AREA FM ADIRONDACKS INTO SVT OVERNIGHT ON NAM...GFS ACROSS MOST
OF FCA...GEM TRACKS IT BWTN. WHILE TIMING AND LOCALES MAY BE HARD
TO PIN DOWN...THE THREAT OF SURGES OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM
NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE
N ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTION OF FA TONIGHT AND THEN
SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER LATE TUESDAY. PWATS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH BTWN 1.5 AND 2+ INCHES AND THETA E RIDGE
AXIS H10-H8 ACTUALLY BECOMES STRONGER WITH TIME. THUS WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK TO BE COMMON WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. WITH MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW MOISTURE ALL OF THE WAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS MORE
UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WHICH HINGES ON HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR OUR EAST
WORKING WESTWARD AND PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WEDNESDAY AS GGEM WOULD HAVE FA MAINLY DRY
WITH ECMWF...NAM AND GFS ALL SHOWING MORE RAIN DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES THE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH INFLUENCING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DECREASING TREND IN THE POPS EXTENDS INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEKEND...AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THEN THE BERMUDA
HIGH MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WILL STILL FEATURE A
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE WILL BE NEAR
BERMUDA. A MOIST CHANNEL OF WARM AND HUMID AIR IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVEL S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHEAST...AS THE FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...AND THE RIDGE. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
WASHOUT...BUT THEIR IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH. PWATS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL SO HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE COVERAGE IN THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING
BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM/HPC GUIDANCE. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE MID AND U80S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. LOWS WILL BE
STICKY IN THE 60S TO L70S IN THE MUGGY AIR MASS.
FRI TO SAT...A BROKEN RECORD...REPEAT PATTERN OF ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION TO ENTER THE
WEEKEND. THE POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES ON SATURDAY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOW CHC MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST WITH THE SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MAKING PROGRESS. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MAINLY 80S AND L90S...AND LOWS IN THE
60S TO L70S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLE OR
OPPRESSIVE.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA...AND THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GFS/ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING ZONAL.
THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO BUILDS WESTWARD AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE
IS STILL AN ISOLD THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.
SFC DEWPTS MAY DROP IN THE LOWER TO M60S WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE...AS
HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHS PEAKS. LOWS IN THE 60S WILL PREVAIL.
OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH PCPN STILL POTENTIALLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS. NO IMMEDIATE RELIEF WITH MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU.
THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE LATE MORNING
KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. THE RAIN MAY BECOME
STEADIER AND HEAVIER JUST BEFORE NOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VSBYS WERE LOWERED IN THE IFR RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CIGS WERE
KEPT IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KPSF. ALL THE TERMINALS MAY NEED IFR CIGS WITH LATER
TAF ISSUANCES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND IT HAS
BEEN KEPT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW PROBS /30 PERCENT OR LESS/.
THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TOO.
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN MAY LESSEN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE SITES.
THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE N/NE FROM KALB NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10
KTS...BUT VEER TO THE S AT KPOU AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK
TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74
INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK
IN 1862.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11/NAS
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ESTF UPDATE FOLLOWING HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING.
18Z MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON HEAVIER PCPN BEFORE MORNING. THERE
HAS BEEN A PATTERN TO QUICK STARTS, SO WANT TO SEE HOW THE FCST
LLVL JET VERIFIES OFF THE 00Z SOUNDINGS. REGARDLESS WHAT DOES NOT
OCCUR BEFORE 10Z IS LIKELY TO THEN OCCUR AFTER 10Z.
FFA CONTD. PWAT AXIS CONTS 2+ ALONG THE I 95 CORRIDOR AND VAPOR
HAS CONNECTION TO NEAR FLORIDA.
THE FOCUS IS ON SOME SORT OF IMPULSE OR TWO RIDING NWD ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND CAUSING ONE OR TWO MORE PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN.
THERE PROBABLY WONT BE MUCH THUNDER WITH IT.
THINKING MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP IN OUR AREA AFTER 04Z
AS LOW LVL WINDS ORGANIZE A NEW SPEED MAX ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST.
THAT WOULD PROBABLY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO YIELD HEAVY QPF.
HOURLY RFALLS EARLY TUESDAY 1 TO 2 INCHES WHERE IT RAINS HARD THE
ENTIRE HOUR. TRAVEL DELAYS AND TRAFFIC DETOURS FM LANE AND ROAD
CLOSURES EXPECTED BUT THE TIMING AND WHERE IS THE ISSUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY...BELIEVE WE HAVE FF POTENTIAL BUT WE`RE NOT SURE IF ITS
ALL CONFINED TO THE MORNING OR IF THERE IS LATE AFTN REDEVELOPMENT
FURTHER WEST WHERE IT HEATS UP? MLCAPE OF 1000J TUE AFTN.
SOME DRYING IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTN BUT MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
WE SHOULD HAVE A MORNING BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR I95...THE AFTN
MAY BE MORE RELATED TO HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTION
TENDING TO BE RESTRICTED TO EASTERN PA.
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS WERE 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/1 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 PATTERN REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING. THIS ALLOWS
THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST TO RETROGRESS BACK ACROSS THE
ERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER THEN DRIER PATTERN ACROSS OUR
REGION.
TUE NIGHT THRU FRI...WE REMAIN IN THE DEEPER SRLY FLOW WITH SEVERAL
S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE DAILY CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIER RAINS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S (NORTH) AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (SOUTH). IT WILL
REMAIN HUMID AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN 70S WITH SOME
MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH.
FRI NIGHT THRU MONDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD (SOUTH OF OUR AREA)...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
MORE WRLY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP FLOW OF HIGHER PW AIR TO BE
CUT OFF FOR OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW CHCS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS BOTH SAT AND SUN AS THE GFS/EC SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THRU THE REGION. MOSTLY WENT WITH HPC TEMPS/POPS FOR THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 90S IN MANY AREAS AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT LATE WITH
A FEW BANDS OF IFR VSBY IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
SREF HAS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON LOW CIGS VCNTY KABE AND KRDG.
TUESDAY...AFTER EARLY MORNING IFR OR MVFR CIGS LIFT...VFR CIGS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDS IN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
GENERALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS, WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR BUT LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING EARLY MORNING FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOONS EARLY EVENING.
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA FOR NEAR 5 SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS
PERSISTENT S TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN BIASED HIGH.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FOR DE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
SCA FLAG EXTENDED INTO TUE NIGHT WITH MARGINAL 5FT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SCA WITH 3 TO 4
FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TUE EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL PLAIN.
GIVEN THE RECORD RAINS OF JUNE IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND THE CONTD
PWAT AXIS OF 2+ INCHES ALONG I95 THROUGH AT LEAST TUE... AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED AND FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, THIS COULD BE A LOCALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITH CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND LOW
LYING VULNERABLE AREAS. PLAN FOR TRAVEL DELAYS AND DETOURS IF AND
WHEN FLOODING FLOODING REDEVELOPS IN PART OF THE AREA.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME QUESTION ON THE MAIN LOCATION OF THE MORE
FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT IT APPEARS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
ESPECIALLY POINTS TO THE WEST ARE OF MORE CONCERN.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LEAD TO FLOODING AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED
FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING CORES, COMBINED WITH MANY AREAS OF
RATHER LOW 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FCST TODAY FOR THE NJ AND
DE BEACHES.
A MDT RISK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THEREAFTER... LOW OR MDT WED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER A
SECONDARY 15 SECOND SWELL APPEARS IN OUR WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD RAINFALLS IN JUNE IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY.
CLM`S FOR JUNE ARE POSTED BUT NO TIME TO APPEND ANY RECORD
REFERENCE DATA.
DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS FOR JULY 1 ARE BELOW.
ACY 1.26 1922
PHL 1.04 1877
ILG 1.08 2009
ABE 1.12 1960 NEW RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED TODAY
TTN 1.75 2005
GED 1.80 1996
RDG 1.18 1922
MPO 1.76 1976
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012-015>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
133 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD THE FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 115 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
UPDATE...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE PROGGING A WEAKER LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS
NW GA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT FURTHER
WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AS IT GETS AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
IN ADDITION...DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND A FEW OF THEM COULD BE STRONG. ISOLATED SEVERE
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z MODIFIED SOUNDING DID
SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF CAPE.
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE
CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS
ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER
THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH
AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING
OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE CONTENT.
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO
SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A
LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DEESE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS
CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA
IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING
ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER
THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF
INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF
2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD
VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS
WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY
REALISTIC.
01
HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS.
DEESE
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DYNAMICALLY LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION MOVING TOWARDS THE METRO
AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MOVED THE TEMPO GROUP UP FOR THUNDER
FROM 19 TO 21Z. WINDS ALSO AN ISSUE. LIMITED MIXING THIS MORNING
HAS KEPT THE WINDS A LITTEL EAST OF SOUTH THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE SW. DO THINK AFTER THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH WINDS WILL BE FORCED BACK TO SW. A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST
IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUMMER WILL BRING IN AN EXTREMLY
MOIST AIRMASS TO THE STATE THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL GRAIDENT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AND LEAD TO STRONG H85 MOIST TRANSPORT. THIS TRANSPORT
WILL START ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STATEWIDE DURING THIS PERIOD. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORMS AND LEAD TO SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES. PWAT VALUES IN ATLANTA ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOVE 2
INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES
ARE AT OR JUST BELOW THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JULY. THE HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...WHERE
RECENT RAINFALL HAS PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS...SEE THE LATEST
/ATLFFAFFC FOR MORE INFORMATION.
AGIBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 80 70
ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 60 40 50 50
BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 65 / 60 50 70 60
CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 80 40 50 50
COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 60 40 40 40
GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 50 70 60
MACON 87 70 86 70 / 50 40 50 60
ROME 87 66 85 69 / 80 40 50 50
PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 60 40 50 50
VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 80 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...CLARKE...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
GREENE...HANCOCK...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILKES...
WILKINSON.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...HALL...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
HYDROLOGY...AGIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
115 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
UPDATE...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE PROGGING A WEAKER LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS
NW GA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT FURTHER
WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AS IT GETS AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
IN ADDITION...DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND A FEW OF THEM COULD BE STRONG. ISOLATED SEVERE
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z MODIFIED SOUNDING DID
SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF CAPE.
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE
CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS
ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER
THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH
AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING
OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE CONTENT.
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO
SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A
LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DEESE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS
CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA
IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING
ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER
THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF
INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF
2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD
VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS
WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY
REALISTIC.
01
HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS.
DEESE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DYNAMICALLY LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION MOVING TOWARDS THE METRO
AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MOVED THE TEMPO GROUP UP FOR THUNDER
FROM 19 TO 21Z. WINDS ALSO AN ISSUE. LIMITED MIXING THIS MORNING
HAS KEPT THE WINDS A LITTEL EAST OF SOUTH THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE SW. DO THINK AFTER THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH WINDS WILL BE FORCED BACK TO SW. A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST
IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 80 70
ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 60 40 50 50
BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 65 / 60 50 70 60
CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 80 40 50 50
COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 60 40 40 40
GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 50 70 60
MACON 87 70 86 70 / 50 40 50 60
ROME 87 66 85 69 / 80 40 50 50
PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 60 40 50 50
VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 80 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
122 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
AS LOW ROTATES OFF TO OUR WEST...EASTERN KY HAS FOUND ITSELF IN A DRY
SLOT WITH CONVECTION FORMING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND POINTS
WESTWARD. LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE
TRYING TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
STARTING TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS ALSO
POINTING AT SOME CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER OUR FAR EAST HERE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MERGE IN FROM THE EAST.
ALL THINGS BEING ACCOUNTED FOR...NOT FEELING VERY CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WHILE DRY SLOT IS IN PLACE. BACKED OFF POPS SOME THROUGH
18Z...AT WHICH TIME BEST CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN KICKING IN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOOK LIKE THE CONVECTION
WILL MOST LIKELY GET GOING AFTER NOON TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW WHICH
INITIALLY WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN EVENTUALLY
DRIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY
NEAR THE AREA. THE PROBLEM WITH DECIPHERING THE MODELS IS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THE UPPER LOWS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE BITS OF ENERGY
MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW ARE QUITE DIFFERENT AND AS A
RESULT THE TIMING OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD IS A
DIFFICULT TASK WITH THE MODELS BEING ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT WE
ARE UNDER AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT JUST NEEDS A LITTLE
ENCOURAGEMENT TO KICK OFF A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM. THE NAM SEEMED
TO HAVE INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE PRECIPITATION THAN THE
OTHER MODELS SO TENDED TO NUDGE THINGS A LITTLE TOWARD THE NAM FOR
THE FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART STAY THE GARDEN
VARIETY TYPE...HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. FOR TEMPERATURES
STAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN CONSENSUS MOS DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDINESS
THAT IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA. MOISTURE
RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL FINALLY
RELAX AS PROGS INDICATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE RATHER HIGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY
AS A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE BACKS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD...WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE STORMS REPEAT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE
PERIOD RATHER MILD BUT WILL MODERATE WELL INTO THE 80S DURING THE
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL COME WITH A
VERY MUGGY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE SO THE HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY BE
PUSHING 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN POPPING UP ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME NUMEROUS IN NATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY AS
CELLS ARE STILL DEVELOPING...THERE IS NO EXACT TIMING ON WHEN OR EVEN
IF A PARTICULAR CELL WILL HIT A TAF SITE DIRECTLY. AS A RESULT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS MENTION OF VCTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE UPDATES AS NEEDED FOR IMPENDING STORMS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WIND GUSTS MAY BE FELT AT TAF SITES EVEN IF
STORM DOES NOT PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. BY OVERNIGHT...DAYTIME HEATING
AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE...LEAVING BEHIND A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
VALLEYS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TAF SITES IF IT BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH.
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KSME AND POTENTIALLY KLOZ AS WELL.
AS FOG SCATTERS OUT IN THE MORNING...A SIMILAR STORY OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1204 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
AS LOW ROTATES OFF TO OUR WEST...EASTERN KY HAS FOUND ITSELF IN A DRY
SLOT WITH CONVECTION FORMING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND POINTS
WESTWARD. LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE
TRYING TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS
STARTING TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS ALSO
POINTING AT SOME CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER OUR FAR EAST HERE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MERGE IN FROM THE EAST.
ALL THINGS BEING ACCOUNTED FOR...NOT FEELING VERY CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WHILE DRY SLOT IS IN PLACE. BACKED OFF POPS SOME THROUGH
18Z...AT WHICH TIME BEST CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN KICKING IN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOOK LIKE THE CONVECTION
WILL MOST LIKELY GET GOING AFTER NOON TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW WHICH
INITIALLY WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN EVENTUALLY
DRIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY
NEAR THE AREA. THE PROBLEM WITH DECIPHERING THE MODELS IS THAT EVEN
THOUGH THE UPPER LOWS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE BITS OF ENERGY
MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW ARE QUITE DIFFERENT AND AS A
RESULT THE TIMING OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD IS A
DIFFICULT TASK WITH THE MODELS BEING ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT WE
ARE UNDER AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT JUST NEEDS A LITTLE
ENCOURAGEMENT TO KICK OFF A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM. THE NAM SEEMED
TO HAVE INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE PRECIPITATION THAN THE
OTHER MODELS SO TENDED TO NUDGE THINGS A LITTLE TOWARD THE NAM FOR
THE FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART STAY THE GARDEN
VARIETY TYPE...HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. FOR TEMPERATURES
STAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN CONSENSUS MOS DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDINESS
THAT IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA. MOISTURE
RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL FINALLY
RELAX AS PROGS INDICATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE RATHER HIGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY
AS A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE BACKS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD...WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE STORMS REPEAT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE
PERIOD RATHER MILD BUT WILL MODERATE WELL INTO THE 80S DURING THE
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL COME WITH A
VERY MUGGY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE SO THE HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY BE
PUSHING 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM. EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL GET GOING BETWEEN 16-18Z. JUST LIKE THE
LAST TWO DAYS...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRODUCING OUTFLOWS
AGAIN TODAY WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME LLWS A LONG DISTANCE FROM THE
STORMS. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD INDICATION OF WHEN THE TAF STATIONS WILL
GET THUNDER...SO JUST LEFT VCTS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
203 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S WARMER VALLEYS. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...VERY DIFFICULT AFTERNOON FORECAST AS
MAJORITY OF 12Z NWP GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING CURRENT TRENDS VERY
WELL. INITIAL SURGES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHING NORTHWARD THOUGH CENTRAL PA/NY ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPLIT THE UPRIGHTS IN REGARD TO THE BTV CWA WITH
MOST OF THE AREA SEEING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP. LATEST 15Z HRRR IS
ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL WITH A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP
TRENDS...AND DEVELOPS THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING NORTH FROM PA
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING CLOSER TO 23-00Z. HAVE BACKED
OFF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHLIGHTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE DECREASED QPF
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...KNOCKING IT DOWN BY ALMOST HALF. STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TIMING NOW PUSHED OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOR TONIGHT...POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WL SHIFT INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z...ALONG WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WL
MENTION CAT/LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER TO SCHC/CHC AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN. EXPECT A SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT IN TEMPS...WITH COOLEST READINGS ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN
DACKS AND WARMEST LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON TUES AFTN AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE CHANGE ON
TUESDAY AFTN WL BE INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WL SPREAD INTO MOST OF VT AND NORTHERN
NY...AS WARM FRNT INTERSECTS OUR CWA.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS
VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING AS
S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200%
ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN
ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL
BE LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH
FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION SCHC/CHC POPS ON
TUES AM...BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY AND MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY
WITH LIS AROUND -3C AND CAPE BTWN 1200-1800 J/KG. SOUNDING SHOW WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS >12KFT...PWS NEAR 2.0"...AND MODEST INSTABILITY
PRESENT...WHICH SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES
LIKELY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY TUES EVENING AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND S/W ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF CWA. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 14-16C ON TUES...BUT CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME...WL STILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MENTION HIGHS IN THE M70S MTNS
TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS.
WEDS...SW FLW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED S/W ENERGY WL CONT ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH A LLVL BOUNDARY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
SLIGHTLY...CREATING INCREASED INSTABILITY VALUES AND THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. PWS CONT TO BE BTWN 1.50 AND 2.0"...SO
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS WL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WL MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT MONDAY...PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE
FORECAST AREA SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A DEEP
AND MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH (NEAR 2 INCHES)...
THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.
BY THE WEEKEND...PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY AS AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA
HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS FLATTENS INTO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALMOST
CERTAIN THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT HARD TO TIME SUCH
FEATURES THIS FAR OUT SO WILL JUST CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE
HUMID AS WELL. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...COMPLEX FORECAST WITH GENERAL BREAK IN
PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY VARYING
CONDITIONS...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THREAT OF SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS AT KBTV/KPBG WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH
SHOWERS...WHILE MOST TAF SITE ARE ALREADY MVFR...WITH BOUTS OF
IFR. KMSS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. SHOWERS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...TAPERING OFF AFTER 08Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND TO AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. MVFR
CONDITIONS PSBL IN THE CPV...SLV...AND KRUT. EXPECT KMPV AND KSLK
TO SEE IFR THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS EXISTS FOR TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF REDUCTION
TO MVFR IN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND IFR SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO FOG GENERALLY 06-12Z. SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE THE
ONLY DAY OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 18 UTC THIS AFTN
UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTN INTO TUESDAY. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE 1ST ARRIVING THIS
AFTN/EVENING AND ANOTHER ON TUES. FORECASTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACRS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AREA WIDE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.
THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE... SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV GOT 0.30" OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT AND FELL 0.07
SHORT OF BREAKING THE ALL-TIME JUNE PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 9.92.
THE 18.60" MAY-JUN TOTAL IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD BESTING THE
13.87" IN 2006.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ028-030-031-
034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS/KGM
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
141 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT. LARGE AREA OF RAIN SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN IN THE FAR SE HAS MOVED
EAST. EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO THE CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY.
STEADY RAIN UP TO AN INCH BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO MINOR URBAN PROBLEMS IN THE ELMIRA AREA WITH A
TSTORM SUNDAY AFTN. UPPED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE.
THIS AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NE PA AND MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MULTI INCH
AMOUNTS. WILL BE WATCHING RADAR CLOSELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A
LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES
ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES
NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST
OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT
PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES.
NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU
THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND
AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE
DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING
LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT
TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF
CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE
FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP
OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT.
CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY
DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED.
HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN
GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE TEMPS.
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF
IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. RAIN WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOPING
KEEPING MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
AROUND 14Z ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUINGS.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK... TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN
THE VICINITY. AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NOON MON UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO NOON TUESDAY. ADDED THE CENT SRN
TIER OF NY SO ONLY COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH YATES TO ONONDAGA. SO
FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER CONTROL AND ONLY ADVISORIES ISSUED.
SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN SO MORE ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. GROUND SATURATED. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE LOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN
INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. WITH THIS AIRMASS TSTORMS CAN PUT OUT 1
TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. STORMS WILL ONLY BE MOVING AT ABOUT 20
MPH. RAINFALL TOTALS 1 TO 2 INCHES WIDESPREAD WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON
THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. MINOR FLOODING
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT LEAST...AS PER STATEMENTS
HANDLED VIA NWS ALBANY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER AT CONKLIN RUNNING HIGH AND BELOW FLOOD STAGE. FORECAST TO
GO TO FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT MINOR FLOOD INTO
THURSDAY. RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS.
VESTAL AND WAVERLY/SAYRE ON THE SUSQUEHANNA FORECASTED TO GO TO
JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY TOO. STILL TIME FOR
THESE POINTS. HEADWATER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE BUT DEPENDENT MORE
ON TRAINING TSTORMS PUTTING DOWN LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-022>025-
036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MSE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER
80S WARMER VALLEYS. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...VERY DIFFICULT AFTERNOON FORECAST AS
MAJORITY OF 12Z NWP GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING CURRENT TRENDS VERY
WELL. INITIAL SURGES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PUSHING NORTHWARD THOUGH CENTRAL PA/NY ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPLIT THE UPRIGHTS IN REGARD TO THE BTV CWA WITH
MOST OF THE AREA SEEING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP. LATEST 15Z HRRR IS
ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL WITH A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP
TRENDS...AND DEVELOPS THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING NORTH FROM PA
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING CLOSER TO 23-00Z. HAVE BACKED
OFF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHLIGHTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE DECREASED QPF
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...KNOCKING IT DOWN BY ALMOST HALF. STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TIMING NOW PUSHED OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...
FOR TONIGHT...POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WL SHIFT INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z...ALONG WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WL
MENTION CAT/LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER TO SCHC/CHC AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN. EXPECT A SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT IN TEMPS...WITH COOLEST READINGS ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN
DACKS AND WARMEST LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON TUES AFTN AS ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE CHANGE ON
TUESDAY AFTN WL BE INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WL SPREAD INTO MOST OF VT AND NORTHERN
NY...AS WARM FRNT INTERSECTS OUR CWA.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS
VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING AS
S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200%
ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN
ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL
BE LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH
FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION SCHC/CHC POPS ON
TUES AM...BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY AND MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY
WITH LIS AROUND -3C AND CAPE BTWN 1200-1800 J/KG. SOUNDING SHOW WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS >12KFT...PWS NEAR 2.0"...AND MODEST INSTABILITY
PRESENT...WHICH SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES
LIKELY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY TUES EVENING AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND S/W ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF CWA. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 14-16C ON TUES...BUT CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING
SOME...WL STILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MENTION HIGHS IN THE M70S MTNS
TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS.
WEDS...SW FLW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED S/W ENERGY WL CONT ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH A LLVL BOUNDARY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
SLIGHTLY...CREATING INCREASED INSTABILITY VALUES AND THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. PWS CONT TO BE BTWN 1.50 AND 2.0"...SO
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS WL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WL MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT MONDAY...PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE
FORECAST AREA SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A DEEP
AND MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH (NEAR 2 INCHES)...
THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.
BY THE WEEKEND...PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY AS AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA
HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS FLATTENS INTO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALMOST
CERTAIN THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT HARD TO TIME SUCH
FEATURES THIS FAR OUT SO WILL JUST CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE
HUMID AS WELL. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/RUT TILL 14Z. VFR/MVFR CIGS
AFTER 14Z...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
MSS. RAIN CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF REDUCTION TO
MVFR IN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND IFR SOME LOCATIONS
DUE TO FOG GENERALLY 06-12Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 18 UTC THIS AFTN
UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTN INTO TUESDAY. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE 1ST ARRIVING THIS
AFTN/EVENING AND ANOTHER ON TUES. FORECASTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACRS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AREA WIDE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIAPTED WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE TO
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...
SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV GOT 0.30" OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT AND FELL 0.07
SHORT OF BREAKING THE ALL-TIME JUNE PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 9.92.
THE 18.60" MAY-JUN TOTAL IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD BESTING THE
13.87" IN 2006.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ028-030-031-
034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1217 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT. LARGE AREA OF RAIN SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN IN THE FAR SE HAS MOVED
EAST. EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO THE CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY.
STEADY RAIN UP TO AN INCH BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO MINOR URBAN PROBLEMS IN THE ELMIRA AREA WITH A
TSTORM SUNDAY AFTN. UPPED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE.
THIS AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NE PA AND MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MULTI INCH
AMOUNTS. WILL BE WATCHING RADAR CLOSELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A
LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES
ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES
NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST
OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT
PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES.
NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU
THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND
AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE
DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING
LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT
TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF
CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE
FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP
OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT.
CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY
DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED.
HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR
80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN
GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE TEMPS.
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST CONTINUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MVFR WITH EMBEDDED
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ENGULFED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE
TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE
OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE
STORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...
VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN
THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT.
OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NOON MON UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO NOON TUESDAY. ADDED THE CENT SRN
TIER OF NY SO ONLY COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH YATES TO ONONDAGA. SO
FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER CONTROL AND ONLY ADVISORIES ISSUED.
SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN SO MORE ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. GROUND SATURATED. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE LOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN
INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. WITH THIS AIRMASS TSTORMS CAN PUT OUT 1
TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. STORMS WILL ONLY BE MOVING AT ABOUT 20
MPH. RAINFALL TOTALS 1 TO 2 INCHES WIDESPREAD WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON
THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. MINOR FLOODING
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT LEAST...AS PER STATEMENTS
HANDLED VIA NWS ALBANY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER AT CONKLIN RUNNING HIGH AND BELOW FLOOD STAGE. FORECAST TO
GO TO FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT MINOR FLOOD INTO
THURSDAY. RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS.
VESTAL AND WAVERLY/SAYRE ON THE SUSQUEHANNA FORECASTED TO GO TO
JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY TOO. STILL TIME FOR
THESE POINTS. HEADWATER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE BUT DEPENDENT MORE
ON TRAINING TSTORMS PUTTING DOWN LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-022>025-
036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WERE TO BUMP UP
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT IN A FEW AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH SB CAPES OF AROUND
1000J/KG IN THAT AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR
CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND AN UPDATE OF LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES WERE COSMETIC TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST...A SUNNY AND
QUIET MONDAY IS FORECAST.
GIVEN LITTLE SPREAD IN 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WILL UTILIZE A
BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DID
EXPAND THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
GREATER PORTION OF THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE 07 UTC HRRR WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00
UTC 4KM WRF...AND 00 UTC NAM/GFS AND 03 UTC SREF. ALL DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO
QUICKLY FADE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET WITH A CLEAR AND QUIET
MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEK. 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR
CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE LAS VEGAS CENTERED RIDGE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CONSISTENCY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.
BY LATE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DIRECT MORE VIGOROUS
MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING OF THE STRONGEST LOW AMONG 00 UTC
ECMWF/GEFS/GFS/GEM GLOBAL DIFFERS BY UP TO 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S AS
THE POLAR FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
442 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST COVER THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. MOSINEE...KCWA...DID
REPORT -RA IN THE PAST HALF HOUR...SO THE PRECIPITATION IS
REACHING THE GROUND. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THE RUNS FROM
THE UP OF MICHIGAN DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS AS
WELL WITH SOME SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN RUNNING INTO SOME MORE NORTHERLY WINDS IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE 01.20 HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT...THOUGH
OVERDONE...COMPARISON TO RADAR AND SHOWS THESE SHOWERS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
WANES ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
CONDITIONS...BUT GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW BRIEF GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30KTS OR SO WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ANOTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN BETWEEN...A CUT OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE 01.12Z MODEL SUITE WHICH CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS FORCES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THESE WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY WEAK
FORCING OVER THE REGION WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING THESE
WAVES WITH LESS THAN 4 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE LACKING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE RIGHT OVER
THE AREA BRINGING A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS MAY BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH THE
COLD CORE ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 6
AND 7 C/KM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN BY LATE AFTERNOON TO AID IN
THE INSTABILITY. CAPES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS TO BE A TALL SKINNY CAPE. ENOUGH THOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO REAL
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND STARTS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH SOME LOW END CAPE TO POP SOME
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND WILL SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THAT...ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN
THE PROCESS OF MERGING INTO ONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS TEND TO TAKE FRONTS TOO FAR SOUTH IN
THESE PATTERNS SO HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013
AREA REMAINS QUIET BETWEEN UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER NORTHERN STATES AND
CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER MID MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PROMPT SOME MID DAY CUMULUS BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOME LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF SITES AT ALL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION.....SHEA