Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/01/13


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT VERY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AGAIN SUNDAY. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL THEN LEAD TO THE DAILY CYCLE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO PROVIDE A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 35 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS VALID 2140Z. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. 29/18Z RUC HRRR SEEMED WELL INITIALIZED REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NM AND IS ACCEPTED FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST. BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO MOVE SWWD ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS TO THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE LATE TONIGHT. 29/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A GRADUAL INCREASE OF MOISTURE STARTING SUN AND CONTINUING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE WAS ESSENTIALLY NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE INHERITED POP GRIDS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR WEST AS THE TUCSON METRO AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING. CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS TO OCCUR SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES. EXPECT A SIMILAR POP SCENARIO MON AFTERNOON AND MON EVENING. THEREAFTER...POPS INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE-CATEGORY AS FAR WEST AS TUCSON TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FURTHER WWD INTO THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WED AFTERNOON AND WED EVENING FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD...AND LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF THUR-SAT REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE WRN STATES HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE DIFFERENCES ALSO YIELDED DIFFERENT MOISTURE VALUES AND MODEL QPF/S. IN ESSENCE...ECMWF KEPT UPPER HIGH QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION...AND NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SE AZ. MEANWHILE...GFS DEPICTED UPPER HIGH TO MOVE SWD INTO CENTRAL AZ. THE CORRESPONDING PRECIP FIELDS WERE MARKEDLY DRIER BY NEXT SAT VERSUS THE ECMWF. PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S...OPTED TO DEPICT ONLY A SLIGHT DAILY REDUCTION IN POPS THUR-SAT. THUS...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO OCCUR THUR-SAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE MAINTAINED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THRU 9 PM MST SUN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. AT ANY RATE...THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS MON-THUR IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...ISOLD -TSRA MAINLY NEAR MTNS INTO EARLY EVENING...ENDING BY 30/04Z AND AGAIN SUNDAY BETWEEN 30/21Z AND 01/04Z. OTHERWISE... SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 12K FT AGL THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR 01/00Z. NORMAL DIURNAL SURFACE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR -TSRA. VERY HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE INCREASED TAKE OFF LENGTHS DURING PEAK HEATING THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A DAILY CYCLE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS MOISTURE INCREASES. GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. && .CLIMATE...THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SO FAR AT TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 84 DEGREES. THIS TEMPERATURES TIES THE RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY (JUN 29) WHICH WAS SET IN 1898. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ501>506-509- 515. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON BF/KD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1101 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013 UPDATED GRIDS...MAINLY POPS...TO ACCOUNT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. -PJC && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013 ...MORE STORMS FOR THE PLAINS LATER TODAY... THE TWO MAIN CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE THE CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS...AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN AND AROUND BURN AREAS. CURRENTLY...A SMALL CIRCULATION 20 TO 30 MILES NNW OF COS...WITH ASSOCIATED QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY...IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ESPECIALLY IN TELLER COUNTY WHERE NUMEROUS CG STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WITH A STRONG CELL CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CANON CITY. THE 12Z GFS40 PV15 ALSO SHOWS A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. THESE INGREDIENTS...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30`S AND 40`S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WILL AID IN KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS GOING AFTER SUNSET. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE...MINALY DUE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. LATER TONIGHT...THE HRRR/RAP/NAM12 CONTINUE TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH 06Z. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR AND RAP...SEEM A BIT OVERDONE ON THE MOISTURE (CURRENT TD IN LHX IS 26)...BUT STILL FEEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WIND...BUT IF MOISTURE DOES RETURN VIA A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE AS THE RAP AND HRRR FORECAST...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS 30-40KTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE NAM12/GFS/EC ALL SHOW ANOTHER...MORE SIGNIFICANT...DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DROP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HELP DROP 700MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 11C...LEADING TO COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOSITURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CURRENT ACTIVE BURN AREAS SUCH AS THE WEST FORK COMPLEX AND EAST PEAK FIRES...ALONG WITH THE WALDO CANYON SCAR...WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO THE INCREASE IS MOISTURE. -PJC .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013 ...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN...AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE BURN SCARS... AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST AND REMAINS CENTERED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND CURRENT MODEL TIMING SHOWS IT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...CAPES IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO MOUNTAINS... EXPECT TO HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION FIRING BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO IMPACT ONE OF THE BURN SCARS SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WITH ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING... INSTABILITY...AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH CAPES AND DEWPOINTS DECREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE...INTENSITY...AND RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AXIS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. GFS FORECASTS THE CLOSED LOW TO RETROGRADE FRIDAY TO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW FARTHER SOUTH...OVER WESTERN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THE GFS SCENARIO...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A FEW RUNS NOW...KEEPS SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN A COOL AND ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SCENARIO KEEPS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. STILL EXPECT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMDITIES TO BRING SOME RELIEF TO WILDFIRE THREAT. STARK && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013 AFTER SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KPUB...THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERN AT KALS...KCOS...AND KPUB ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT KCOS AND THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED AT KALS...KCOS AND KPUB INTO SATURDAY. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
745 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND A BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SIMILAR STORY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH THE REGION REMAINING SITUATED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE LATEST SURFACE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION THIS FRONT THEN REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE REGION NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN. LATEST HRRR RUN LAGGING ABOUT AN HOUR BEHIND REAL TIME REFLECTIVITY...NOT DEVELOPING THE PCPN CURRENTLY OFF THE JERSEY SHORE TILL AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...DO AGREE WITH THIS PCPN THEN TRENDING TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CT. WILL CONTINUE SCT POPS OVER THIS AREA...WITH ISO POPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. PCPN MAINLY SCT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THE MODELS THEN HINT AT DRYING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. 10Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT DRY SLOT BEHIND THE VORT MAX MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHICH IS PRODUCING THE PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. THINKING THIS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...KEEPING FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN OVER THE AREA...WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEING LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF JUST WEST...AND POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ASSIST IN PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE FORM OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INITIALLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY INLAND...ALONG WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT COULD TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT...THINKING ANY PCPN SHOULD END BY 06Z...AND WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE A DRY PERIOD UNTIL AT LEAST MID SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR A RANDOM SHOWER. THE CHANCE FOR PCPN INCREASES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND NEARING THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW VALUES SHOOT UP...REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE SUN AFTN. THE PASSING OF A SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE DAY COULD GENERATE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SCT TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND AREA WHERE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE HIGHER BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS HOVER NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS MAY DIFFER BY A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ANY PCPN THAT FORMS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE NOW HINTING AT THE TROUGH WEAKENING SOONER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHES WEST TUES INTO WED. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN WITH SUCH A SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TIMING. HOWEVER...IF THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOONER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LESS CHC FOR PCPN TUES- THURS. SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP TRIGGER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES TOUGH BUT WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS...WITH THE RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH THEN PUSHING MORE INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER...WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. TEMPS FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE COMING WEEK...REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN THROUGH 13Z...BUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. PERSISTENCE TYPE OF FORECAST WITH A TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND AN ONSHORE S/SW FLOW. AIRMASS HAS DRIED SOME AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGON...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG UP TO 13Z...OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MIX. KGON WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF HIGH DEW POINT AIR ACROSS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER...LIKELY TO STAY LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. THERE WAS A 3 HOUR WINDOW ON FRI WHERE CIGS WENT VFR WITH MVFR VSBYS. LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT. A LIGHT S/SW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT BY MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUN-WED...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THERE MAY ALSO BE EPISODES OF STRATUS/FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH THE EMPHASIS ON KGON. && .MARINE... SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY...THOUGH MAY REACH THE OTHER WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUN...LIKELY TO TO BE EXTENDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES. A LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO... ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA...GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KT...WITH THE UPPER END OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...SEARS/MET AVIATION...DW MARINE...SEARS/DW HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
658 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND A BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SIMILAR STORY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH THE REGION REMAINING SITUATED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE LATEST SURFACE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION THIS FRONT THEN REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE REGION NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN. LATEST HRRR RUN LAGGING ABOUT AN HOUR BEHIND REAL TIME REFLECTIVITY...NOT DEVELOPING THE PCPN CURRENTLY OFF THE JERSEY SHORE TILL AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...DO AGREE WITH THIS PCPN THEN TRENDING TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CT. WILL CONTINUE SCT POPS OVER THIS AREA...WITH ISO POPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. PCPN MAINLY SCT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THE MODELS THEN HINT AT DRYING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. 10Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT DRY SLOT BEHIND THE VORT MAX MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHICH IS PRODUCING THE PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING. THINKING THIS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...KEEPING FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN OVER THE AREA...WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEING LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF JUST WEST...AND POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ASSIST IN PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE FORM OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INITIALLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY INLAND...ALONG WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT COULD TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT...THINKING ANY PCPN SHOULD END BY 06Z...AND WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE A DRY PERIOD UNTIL AT LEAST MID SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR A RANDOM SHOWER. THE CHANCE FOR PCPN INCREASES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND NEARING THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW VALUES SHOOT UP...REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE SUN AFTN. THE PASSING OF A SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE DAY COULD GENERATE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SCT TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND AREA WHERE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE HIGHER BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS HOVER NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS MAY DIFFER BY A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ANY PCPN THAT FORMS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE NOW HINTING AT THE TROUGH WEAKENING SOONER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHES WEST TUES INTO WED. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN WITH SUCH A SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TIMING. HOWEVER...IF THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOONER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LESS CHC FOR PCPN TUES- THURS. SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP TRIGGER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES TOUGH BUT WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS...WITH THE RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH THEN PUSHING MORE INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER...WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. TEMPS FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE COMING WEEK...REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERSISTENCE TYPE OF FORECAST WITH A TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND AN ONSHORE S/SW FLOW. AIRMASS HAS DRIED SOME AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGON...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG UP TO 12Z...OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MIX. KGON WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF HIGH DEW POINT AIR ACROSS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER...LIKELY TO STAY LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. THERE WAS A 3 HOUR WINDOW ON FRI WHERE CIGS WENT VFR WITH MVFR VSBYS. LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT. A LIGHT S/SW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT BY MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUN-WED...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THERE MAY ALSO BE EPISODES OF STRATUS/FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH THE EMPHASIS ON KGON. && .MARINE... SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY...THOUGH MAY REACH THE OTHER WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUN...LIKELY TO TO BE EXTENDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES. A LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO... ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA...GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KT...WITH THE UPPER END OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...SEARS/MET AVIATION...DW MARINE...SEARS/DW HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
426 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND A BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SIMILAR STORY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH THE REGION REMAINING SITUATED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE LATEST SURFACE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION THIS FRONT THEN REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE REGION NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN. LATEST HRRR AND 00Z SPC WRF STILL HINT AT SOME ISO-SCT COVERAGE GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF LONG ISLAND AND CT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING SO CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTM. THE MODELS THEN HINT AT DRYING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTN...WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEING LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF JUST WEST...AND POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ASSIST IN PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE FORM OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INITIALLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY INLAND...ALONG WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT COULD TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT...THINKING ANY PCPN SHOULD END BY 06Z...AND WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE A DRY PERIOD UNTIL AT LEAST MID SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR A RANDOM SHOWER. THE CHANCE FOR PCPN INCREASES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND NEARING THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW VALUES SHOOT UP...REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE SUN AFTN. THE PASSING OF A SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE DAY COULD GENERATE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SCT TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND AREA WHERE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE HIGHER BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS HOVER NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS MAY DIFFER BY A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ANY PCPN THAT FORMS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE NOW HINTING AT THE TROUGH WEAKENING SOONER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHES WEST TUES INTO WED. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN WITH SUCH A SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TIMING. HOWEVER...IF THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOONER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LESS CHC FOR PCPN TUES- THURS. SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP TRIGGER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES TOUGH BUT WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS...WITH THE RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH THEN PUSHING MORE INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER...WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. TEMPS FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE COMING WEEK...REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERSISTENCE TYPE OF FORECAST WITH A TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND AN ONSHORE S/SW FLOW. AIRMASS HAS DRIED SOME AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGON...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG UP TO 12Z...OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MIX. KGON WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF HIGH DEW POINT AIR ACROSS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER...LIKELY TO STAY LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. THERE WAS A 3 HOUR WINDOW ON FRI WHERE CIGS WENT VFR WITH MVFR VSBYS. LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT. A LIGHT S/SW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT BY MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUN-WED...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THERE MAY ALSO BE EPISODES OF STRATUS/FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH THE EMPHASIS ON KGON. && .MARINE... SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUN...LIKELY TO TO BE EXTENDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES. A LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO... ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA...GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KT...WITH THE UPPER END OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...SEARS/MET AVIATION...DW MARINE...DW HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
407 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND A BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SIMILAR STORY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH THE REGION REMAINING SITUATED BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE LATEST SURFACE LOW HAS STALLED OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE EXPECTATION THIS FRONT THEN REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE REGION NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY PCPN. LATEST HRRR AND 00Z SPC WRF STILL HINT AT SOME ISO-SCT COVERAGE GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF LONG ISLAND AND CT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING SO CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH ISO TSTM. THE MODELS THEN HINT AT DRYING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTN...WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEING LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF JUST WEST...AND POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ASSIST IN PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE FORM OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INITIALLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST BIT OF DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY INLAND...ALONG WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT COULD TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT...THINKING ANY PCPN SHOULD END BY 06Z...AND WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE A DRY PERIOD UNTIL AT LEAST MID SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISO SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR A RANDOM SHOWER. THE CHANCE FOR PCPN INCREASES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND NEARING THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW VALUES SHOOT UP...REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE SUN AFTN. THE PASSING OF A SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE DAY COULD GENERATE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SCT TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND AREA WHERE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE HIGHER BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS HOVER NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPS MAY DIFFER BY A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF ANY PCPN THAT FORMS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE NOW HINTING AT THE TROUGH WEAKENING SOONER AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHES WEST TUES INTO WED. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN WITH SUCH A SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TIMING. HOWEVER...IF THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOONER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LESS CHC FOR PCPN TUES- THURS. SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP TRIGGER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES TOUGH BUT WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS...WITH THE RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH THEN PUSHING MORE INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER...WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. TEMPS FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THE COMING WEEK...REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERSISTENCE TYPE OF FORECAST WITH A TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND AN ONSHORE S/SW FLOW. AIRMASS HAS DRIED SOME AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGON...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG UP TO 12Z...OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MIX. KGON WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF HIGH DEW POINT AIR ACROSS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER...LIKELY TO STAY LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. THERE WAS A 3 HOUR WINDOW ON FRI WHERE CIGS WENT VFR WITH MVFR VSBYS. LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT. A LIGHT S/SW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT BY MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUN-WED...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THERE MAY ALSO BE EPISODES OF STRATUS/FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH THE EMPHASIS ON KGON. && .MARINE... SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUN...LIKELY TO TO BE EXTENDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES. A LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO... ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA...GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KT...WITH THE UPPER END OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...SEARS/MET AVIATION...DW MARINE...DW HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
210 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .AVIATION... PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY ENDED OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS APPEAR ON TRACK TO APPROACH ATLC COAST AFTER 3Z. CONFIDENT TOO LOW TO PLACE VCSH IN FORECAST...HOWEVER. VCTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK...AT SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013/ UPDATE... MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS THIS EVENING ACROSS COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED ACROSS MAINLY THE REGIONAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. UPDATED POP AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. UPDATE SENT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... CURRENTLY, SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY INFLUENCED BY THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WHICH STRETCHES ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MAINTAINING A STEERING FLOW THAT IS NEARLY NONEXISTENT WITH ERRATIC STORM MOTION. HOWEVER, AS THE DAY PROGRESSES A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH IN TURN WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY TONIGHT. HINTS OF THIS OCCURRING ARE BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE RADAR AND SATELLITE SIGNATURES WITH A VERY SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HRRR IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THAT THINKING ALSO. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THE HRRR ALSO IS SHOWING GOOD DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z WHICH HAS YET TO OCCUR SO TRENDED LATER WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST METRO REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH DEEPENING EVEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AS MASSIVE RIDGES WILL BE IN EXISTENCE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AN EVEN STRONGER DEEP SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. IN FACT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AROUND 20 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM ABOUT 2-7K FEET AND THIS ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDER. THE KEY FACTOR WILL BE IF A EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH SUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES SO CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN HIGH BUT THERE COULD BE ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER, BOTH THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING VERY HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDER. SO FOR THE TIME BEING WILL NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER GUIDANCE TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER TO LOWER CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALL IN ALL THOUGH, IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET WEEKEND FOR THE EAST COAST METRO REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A VERY SLOW RETROGRESSION TO THE WEST IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE EVER SO SLOWLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. SO FOR TUESDAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A STEERING FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN RETURNING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE PWAT WILL REMAIN AT NEAR TWO INCHES ALL OF NEXT WEEK SO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN HIGH BUT SHIFT BACK TO THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MARINE... THE WIND WILL BE MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS A STRONG TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A SCEC STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS AS SPEEDS COULD INCREASE IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 89 76 / 50 30 70 50 FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 89 78 / 50 40 70 50 MIAMI 90 78 90 78 / 40 40 70 50 NAPLES 91 76 91 76 / 40 30 70 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1101 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 .SYNOPSIS... BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT INLAND AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE... A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PRODUCE TIMES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND INTO THE REGION AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... MAINTAINED THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH OF I-16. THE KCHS RAOB DEPICTED A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS FEATURING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT N/NE INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY EVENING DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH/EAST EXPANSION OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL FOCUS INLAND. HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A SUBTLE NE COMPONENT TO THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION...WHILE A WELL/DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS COLLETON COUNTY AND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION...SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP AND/OR SHIFT INTO THIS REGION LATER ON. IN GENERAL...UPDATED POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM LIKELY/CATEGORICAL SOUTH/WEST TO CHANCE/LIKELY NORTH/EAST. GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING...LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL HAVE DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIME FOR SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD WET CONDITIONS LOOK APPARENT ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SFC LOW REMAINS POSITIONED THE DEEP SOUTH AND LIKELY AMPLIFIES MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE REGION WHILE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FORCES THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN PINNED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AS PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 2.5 INCHES...FAVORABLE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OCCURS WITH AN H25 JET...AND SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE ON MONDAY WHEN ENHANCED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A 30-35 KT H85 JET WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AS THE WEAK SFC LOW TO OUR WEST RESULTS IN FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 OVER ALL LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPERIENCED AND ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MAINTAIN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRECISE LOCATION ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 70 OVER MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN THE INCREASING TREND IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE THE LARGE TROUGH TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST BEGINS TO MAKE A NORTHERN RETREAT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST PRECIP ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER FAR INLAND LOCATIONS...THUS HAVE KEEP 60-70 POPS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND NEAR 50 POPS ALONG THE COAST. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SATURATED PROFILES...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED EVENT WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS DURING PEAK HEATING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG SFC HEATING DUE TO THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...HIGHEST INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD INDICATING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING WEST OF THE AREA THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING TRANSITIONING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALSO ANY ANY TIME OUTSIDE PRECIPITATION DUE TO RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS HAS INCREASED TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ACCURATE TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ELUSIVE.AT TIMES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT TERMINALS CONTINUOUSLY WITH FLUCTUATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT OTHER TIMES ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT AMENDMENTS TO ADDRESS NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS/IMPACTS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE... ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS JUSTIFY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL AREAS OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR OVERNIGHT. PER LATE SUNDAY EVENING TRENDS...RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ354 VALID UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAD DISRUPTED THE PRESSURE PATTERN/WINDS WITHIN SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN ELEVATED IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JETTING INTENSIFIES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL ALTER LOCAL WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONED INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ALL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS IN MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NEARSHORE SC WATERS AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK NEAR 20-25 KTS WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT DURING THE ADVISORY EVENT AS A 30-35 KT LOW LVL JET ADVANCES NORTH OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO MID WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RIP CURRENTS...AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG SC BEACHES DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS NEAR 15-20 MPH AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT. THUS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST...THUS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW CATEGORY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE WILL REMAIN AN IMPRESSIVE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE REGION REMAINS ANCHORED UNDERNEATH A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTING NORTH BETWEEN BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A PLETHORA OF UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MUCH OF THE REGION IS RUNNING WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ROUGHLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 16. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 30/845 PM EDT...2.33 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN AT THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR THE DATE. WE WILL TRANSMIT A RECORD EVENT REPORT AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN DAILY RAINFALL FOR JUNE 30 IS FINALIZED RECORD RAINFALL TOTALS FOR 30 JUNE... PREVIOUS CHARLESTON AIRPORT... 1.75 INCHES - 1987 WATERFRONT PARK...... 2.12 INCHES - 1944 SAVANNAH AIRPORT..... 3.06 INCHES - 1983 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ087-088- 099>101. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SCZ040-042>045- 047>052. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-374. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ354. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...SPR SHORT TERM...DPB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...SPR MARINE...DPB/SPR HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
151 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO CROSSING THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE UPSTATE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES IN THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. CHANCES OF CONVECTION STILL APPEAR HIGHEST OVER THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE PWAT REMAINS NEAR 2.00 INCHES. LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL INDICATE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT ALSO DEVELOPS AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE PIEDMONT. WILL KEEP POPS FROM 30 PERCENT WEST TO 60 PERCENT EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS... ALLOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA...A CONVERGENCE AREA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH HEATING ON SUNDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM EARLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETTING STARTED IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BEST LOCATION FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...INCLUDING OGB...WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE HIGHER. CONVECTION ALSO GETTING STARTED IN THE UPSTATE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AT ANY TAF SITE. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AND LOCATION...WILL NOT INCLUDE CONVECTION OTHER TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE RUC AND NAM MODELS...AS WELL AS THE GFS TO A LESSER DEGREE...ARE INDICATING MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AFTER 30/06Z. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE...SO WILL INCLUDE LATE NIGHT MVFR CIGS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 30/12Z GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. && .CLIMATE... THROUGH FRI JUNE 28TH...AUGUSTA GA BUSH FIELD HAS RECEIVED A TOTAL OF 10.52 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS HAS ALREADY ESTABLISHED JUNE 2013 AS THE 2ND WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD AT AUGUSTA. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD AT AUGUSTA IS 10.59 INCHES SET IN 2004...SO TO ESTABLISH JUNE 2013 AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD AT AUGUSTA...AGS NEEDS TO RECEIVE 0.08 MORE INCHES OF RAIN THIS MONTH. ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT KEEP RECORDS FOR DANIEL FIELD...IT HAS RECEIVED 13.47 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR FOR JUNE. QUITE A DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE FROM LAST JUNE AS AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD ONLY RECEIVED 2.48 INCHES FOR THE MONTH. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013/ UPDATE... 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THE MAIN COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS STILL BACK OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLEARING IS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN GA BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT DO EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. STILL COPIOUS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWFA. BREAKS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO OCCUR AND SKIES SHOULDN`T BE BKN MUCH LONGER. WITH THE WIND SHIFT/LOWER DEWPOINTS BACK OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THERE SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF A DROP IN DEWPOINTS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. 10Z RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK OUT SOME SHOWERS RIGHT AROUND THE METRO AREA IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. THINK ISOLD SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND THUNDER WILL BE A STRUGGLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. LIKE THE SCT COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH. NO CHANGE TO POPS AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013/ UPDATE... NEAR TERM. FCST NOT TOO FAR OFF TRACK. JUST WHEN SHRA/TSRA APPEAR TO HAVE DISSIPATED OVER SRN COUNTIES...ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS. MODELS STILL WANT TO ADVECT/MIX DOWN DRIER AIR OVER NORTH AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA TODAY. MAY TAKE SOME TIME...BUT APPEARS DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...ESP OVER NORTH GA TODAY. MAY UPDATE POPS/WX ONE LAST TIME. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD. SNELSON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING UPPER AIR PATTERN. 3 WAVE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN NORTHERN LATITUDES FAVORS RETROGRADING PROPAGATION WHILE A COUPLE CUTOFF LOWS IN MID AND LOWER LATITUDES OVER ERN PACIFIC AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ERN CONUS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SHORTER WAVELENGTH WHILE SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST. ON THE MESOSCALE...DRIER AIR AT SFC HAS PUSHED INTO NE GA THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. SHALLOW RICH MOISTURE COULD MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF NORTH GA... PROVIDING SMALL RELIEF TO RECENT HUMID CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MIDDLE GA WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. NO WELL DEFINED SFC FRONT BUT WILL BE A MOISTURE AND CLOUD BOUNDARY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STORMS OVER MIDDLE GA. HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITY AND NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALSO FAVOR THIS AREA FOR CONVECTION. CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THEN FIRE UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVENTUALLY CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MS VALLEY STATES. VERY UNUSUAL...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN FOR NEAR THE FIRST OF JULY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR INCREASING AND ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. SNELSON LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THINGS ARE STILL STATUS QUO FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEGUN DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL GA IN MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY. THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND ACTS AS A CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL MOVEMENT...THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY MUCH AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAY 7. 01 && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WTIH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL AL. SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP FROM AHN SW. SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN SOUTH OF ATL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED FOR THE AFT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT CIGS REMAIN AOA 3500 FT. COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE HIGHER TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH FUNNELS MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS GA. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SHRA/TSRA THIS AFT AND OVERNIGHT CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 90 69 86 68 / 20 30 50 50 ATLANTA 87 70 85 69 / 20 20 40 40 BLAIRSVILLE 83 62 80 63 / 20 20 40 50 CARTERSVILLE 87 66 85 65 / 20 20 30 40 COLUMBUS 90 72 88 68 / 30 30 40 30 GAINESVILLE 86 69 83 68 / 20 20 40 50 MACON 89 71 87 69 / 30 30 60 40 ROME 88 66 86 65 / 10 20 30 30 PEACHTREE CITY 88 67 85 66 / 20 20 30 30 VIDALIA 88 72 87 73 / 50 50 70 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1005 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .UPDATE... 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THE MAIN COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS STILL BACK OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLEARING IS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN GA BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT DO EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. STILL COPIOUS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWFA. BREAKS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO OCCUR AND SKIES SHOULDN`T BE BKN MUCH LONGER. WITH THE WIND SHIFT/LOWER DEWPOINTS BACK OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THERE SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF A DROP IN DEWPOINTS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. 10Z RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK OUT SOME SHOWERS RIGHT AROUND THE METRO AREA IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. THINK ISOLD SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND THUNDER WILL BE A STRUGGLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. LIKE THE SCT COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH. NO CHANGE TO POPS AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013/ UPDATE... NEAR TERM. FCST NOT TOO FAR OFF TRACK. JUST WHEN SHRA/TSRA APPEAR TO HAVE DISSIPATED OVER SRN COUNTIES...ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS. MODELS STILL WANT TO ADVECT/MIX DOWN DRIER AIR OVER NORTH AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA TODAY. MAY TAKE SOME TIME...BUT APPEARS DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...ESP OVER NORTH GA TODAY. MAY UPDATE POPS/WX ONE LAST TIME. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD. SNELSON PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING UPPER AIR PATTERN. 3 WAVE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IN NORTHERN LATITUDES FAVORS RETROGRADING PROPAGATION WHILE A COUPLE CUTOFF LOWS IN MID AND LOWER LATITUDES OVER ERN PACIFIC AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ERN CONUS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SHORTER WAVELENGTH WHILE SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST. ON THE MESOSCALE...DRIER AIR AT SFC HAS PUSHED INTO NE GA THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. SHALLOW RICH MOISTURE COULD MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON OVER ALL OF NORTH GA... PROVIDING SMALL RELIEF TO RECENT HUMID CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MIDDLE GA WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. NO WELL DEFINED SFC FRONT BUT WILL BE A MOISTURE AND CLOUD BOUNDARY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STORMS OVER MIDDLE GA. HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITY AND NAM/GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALSO FAVOR THIS AREA FOR CONVECTION. CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THEN FIRE UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVENTUALLY CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MS VALLEY STATES. VERY UNUSUAL...AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN FOR NEAR THE FIRST OF JULY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR INCREASING AND ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. SNELSON LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THINGS ARE STILL STATUS QUO FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEGUN DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL GA IN MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY. THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND ACTS AS A CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL MOVEMENT...THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY MUCH AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAY 7. 01 AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... STRATUS/FOG IN PLACE OVER MOST NORTH AND SOME CENTRAL GA AIRPORTS. CIGS ALREADY BEGINNING TO RISE. EXPECT SCT DECK BY 14Z. WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING ACROSS NORTH GA TODAY...COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT NEAR THE SAME OVER AIRPORTS SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON. HAVE REMOVED TEMPO TS FOR ALL EXCEPT KCSG AND KMCN. WEST SFC WINDS MAY GUST TO 14-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. SNELSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 90 69 86 68 / 30 30 50 50 ATLANTA 87 70 85 69 / 30 20 40 40 BLAIRSVILLE 83 62 80 63 / 20 20 40 50 CARTERSVILLE 87 66 85 65 / 20 20 30 40 COLUMBUS 90 72 88 68 / 50 30 40 30 GAINESVILLE 86 69 83 68 / 20 20 40 50 MACON 89 71 87 69 / 50 40 60 40 ROME 88 66 86 65 / 10 20 30 30 PEACHTREE CITY 88 67 85 66 / 30 20 30 30 VIDALIA 88 72 87 73 / 60 50 70 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
158 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .UPDATE... NEAR TERM. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS NORTH GA BUT STILL GOING IN SRN COUNTIES. HAVE TWEAKED POPS/WX AGAIN AND YET AGAIN...TRADITIONAL MOS GUIDANCE FAILING MISERABLY. RECENT HRRR RUNS AND OTHER HIRES MODELS ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKEN CONVECTION THRU 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING ...ONLY TO FIRE IT UP AGAIN OVER SE COUNTIES BY NOON- 1PM. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD. GOOD CHC OF FOG/STRATUS NEAR SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED AWIPS MPE TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN FCST THRU 13Z. REST OF DISCUSSION OUT SOON. SNELSON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... /ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013/ FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL ROTATE AROUND AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIPS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...DEEPENING THE TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF COMPLICATED SURFACE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AS WELL AS GENERAL SURFACE WEAKNESSES IN PLACE IN THE FORM OF A WEAK NEARLY-STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BEST CONVECTION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT...WEAK FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA... HOWEVER LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM ATLANTA METRO TOWARD MONTGOMERY ALABAMA /DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN ALABAMA/ HAS LEFT QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. AHEAD OF THE LINE ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 5000 J/KG...QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAD BEEN PROGGING. FOR THE MOST PART BEST CONVECTION WILL BE WITH THE CURRENT LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT STARTING TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP IN TENNESSEE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UP NORTH. SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND SVR WATCH ALREADY OUT FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ZONES. ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE 12Z KFFC SOUNDING FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING TO KEEP DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREATS. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO WILL THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ALOFT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT BUT DID KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN SOUTHERN ZONES. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP NORTH BUT LIKELIES SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPES PROGGED BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG SOUTH AT BEST TOMORROW BUT GIVEN THE UNDER-FORECAST OF CAPE TODAY AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT CAPES WILL REMAIN THAT LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT CHANCES FOR SEVERE LOOK PRETTY LOW...AND SPC DOES NOT EVEN HAVE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...WITH HIGHS NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS TRENDING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT BAD FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN JUNE. TDP LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... /ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013/ ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. 11 LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND TAKES A HOLD OF THE REGION IN THE EXTENDED. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL GA IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK BOUNDARY LAYING ACROSS NORTH GA WHICH WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL MOVEMENT...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT CONTINUING TO AFFECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAY 7. 01 && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE CHC FOR SUNRISE STRATUS/FOG AND LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES ALOFT...HAVE ADDED A BRIEF TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VSBYS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MOIST SFC LAYER. SHOULD MIX OUT BY 13-14Z. FORTUNATELY...CHC FOR TSRA SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF EAST OF ATL..BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS AND EXPECTED LOCATION OF SFC FEATURES. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA FOR ATL METRO TAF SITES BUT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS LATER THIS MORNING. WEST SFC WINDS MAY GUST TO 14-18KTS THIS AFTERNOON. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. SNELSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 90 68 87 68 / 40 40 30 30 ATLANTA 87 69 84 69 / 40 30 30 30 BLAIRSVILLE 82 62 80 63 / 30 20 40 30 CARTERSVILLE 87 65 85 65 / 30 20 30 30 COLUMBUS 90 71 87 70 / 60 40 30 30 GAINESVILLE 86 67 84 68 / 40 20 30 30 MACON 89 71 88 68 / 60 50 40 30 ROME 88 65 86 65 / 20 20 40 30 PEACHTREE CITY 88 66 84 65 / 50 30 30 30 VIDALIA 88 73 86 72 / 70 60 70 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...SNELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
208 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR COOL TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT ENOUGH SUN MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES THERE TO GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE SOUTH. RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE RAIN UPSTREAM IN ILLINOIS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING ADDITIONAL RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS CONTINUED HIGH POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...JUST CHANGED THE WORDING TO PERIODS OF RAIN TO INDICATE DRY PERIODS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE STILL RELATIVELY HUMID...IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS...STRONG RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A DEEP LOW WAS FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT BOTH INDICATE PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TODAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE BEST LIFT AVAILABLE AROUND 18Z AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR THAT TIME. HOWEVER THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS OR METMOS. AGAIN...A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE PRECIP AS THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...TROUGH AXIS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ALL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL AGAIN BE POPS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH IS QUITE REACHABLE. CAPE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH VALUES OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THUS WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC TROUGH AXIS PASSING AROUND THE UPPER LOW FLOW TO FOCUS POP AND PRECIP...HOWEVER WILL RAISE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS FORCING FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. AGAIN...A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT RATHER LIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. AGAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL TREND DAILY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS AND TREND DAILY LOWS WARMER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION CAN BE USED FOR MOST ITEMS. UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS WILL RETROGRADE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. KEPT CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH THE SYSTEM STILL IN THE VICINITY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY LOW BY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT AM NOT READY TO QUITE BUY INTO THIS SCENARIO YET WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN. WENT AGAINST ALLBLEND HERE AND WENT DRY. BY SATURDAY MODELS AGREE BETTER ON RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SO WENT LOW POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS INFLUENCE. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291800Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SITES...LEADING TO PREDOMINANT MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WENT PREDOMINANT SHOWERS. THERE ARE SOME STORMS AROUND...BUT COVERAGE IS SUCH THAT A HIT AT A TERMINAL IS NOT GUARANTEED...SO ONLY WENT VCTS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. IF A HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM MOVES THROUGH...BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST VCSH MENTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. CEILINGS LOOK TO DIP INTO AND THEN STAY IN MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA/50 SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...50 VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR COOL TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT ENOUGH SUN MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES THERE TO GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE SOUTH. RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE RAIN UPSTREAM IN ILLINOIS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING ADDITIONAL RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS CONTINUED HIGH POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...JUST CHANGED THE WORDING TO PERIODS OF RAIN TO INDICATE DRY PERIODS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE STILL RELATIVELY HUMID...IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS...STRONG RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A DEEP LOW WAS FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT BOTH INDICATE PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TODAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE BEST LIFT AVAILABLE AROUND 18Z AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR THAT TIME. HOWEVER THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS OR METMOS. AGAIN...A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE PRECIP AS THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...TROUGH AXIS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ALL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL AGAIN BE POPS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH IS QUITE REACHABLE. CAPE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH VALUES OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THUS WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC TROUGH AXIS PASSING AROUND THE UPPER LOW FLOW TO FOCUS POP AND PRECIP...HOWEVER WILL RAISE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS FORCING FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. AGAIN...A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT RATHER LIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. AGAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL TREND DAILY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS AND TREND DAILY LOWS WARMER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUB TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW NEARBY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE...SO THINK PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY CAN BE DROPPED AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE IF TRENDS CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291800Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SITES...LEADING TO PREDOMINANT MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WENT PREDOMINANT SHOWERS. THERE ARE SOME STORMS AROUND...BUT COVERAGE IS SUCH THAT A HIT AT A TERMINAL IS NOT GUARANTEED...SO ONLY WENT VCTS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. IF A HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM MOVES THROUGH...BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST VCSH MENTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. CEILINGS LOOK TO DIP INTO AND THEN STAY IN MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA/50 SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...50 VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR COOL TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT ENOUGH SUN MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES THERE TO GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE SOUTH. RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE RAIN UPSTREAM IN ILLINOIS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING ADDITIONAL RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS CONTINUED HIGH POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...JUST CHANGED THE WORDING TO PERIODS OF RAIN TO INDICATE DRY PERIODS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE STILL RELATIVELY HUMID...IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS...STRONG RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A DEEP LOW WAS FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT BOTH INDICATE PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TODAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE BEST LIFT AVAILABLE AROUND 18Z AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR THAT TIME. HOWEVER THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS OR METMOS. AGAIN...A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE PRECIP AS THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...TROUGH AXIS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ALL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL AGAIN BE POPS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH IS QUITE REACHABLE. CAPE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH VALUES OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THUS WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC TROUGH AXIS PASSING AROUND THE UPPER LOW FLOW TO FOCUS POP AND PRECIP...HOWEVER WILL RAISE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS FORCING FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. AGAIN...A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT RATHER LIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. AGAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL TREND DAILY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS AND TREND DAILY LOWS WARMER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUB TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW NEARBY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE...SO THINK PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY CAN BE DROPPED AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE IF TRENDS CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291500Z TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 LOWERED CEILINGS SOME THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STILL THINK THEY WILL END UP IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ABOVE BKN020 BY 17Z OR SO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME THUNDER LIKELY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ROUGHLY 291700Z-300100Z. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY CONVECTION. CB BASES AROUND 025. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT AROUND MIDDAY AS SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW RATHER RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CEILINGS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA/50 SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...JAS/50 VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR COOL TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT ENOUGH SUN MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES THERE TO GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE SOUTH. RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE RAIN UPSTREAM IN ILLINOIS. HRRR MODEL SHOWING ADDITIONAL RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS CONTINUED HIGH POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...JUST CHANGED THE WORDING TO PERIODS OF RAIN TO INDICATE DRY PERIODS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE STILL RELATIVELY HUMID...IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS...STRONG RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A DEEP LOW WAS FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT BOTH INDICATE PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TODAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE BEST LIFT AVAILABLE AROUND 18Z AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR THAT TIME. HOWEVER THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS OR METMOS. AGAIN...A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE PRECIP AS THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...TROUGH AXIS AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ALL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL AGAIN BE POPS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH IS QUITE REACHABLE. CAPE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH VALUES OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THUS WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NOT CONFIDENT IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC TROUGH AXIS PASSING AROUND THE UPPER LOW FLOW TO FOCUS POP AND PRECIP...HOWEVER WILL RAISE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS FORCING FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT. WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. AGAIN...A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT RATHER LIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. AGAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL TREND DAILY HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS AND TREND DAILY LOWS WARMER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUB TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW NEARBY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE...SO THINK PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY CAN BE DROPPED AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE IF TRENDS CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ROUGHLY 291700Z-300100Z. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY CONVECTION. CB BASES AROUND 025. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT AROUND MIDDAY AS SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW RATHER RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CEILINGS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA/50 SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...JAS VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
535 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013 UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NORTHERN MONTANA ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP SOUTH AND REACH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH MONDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET EXIST. ON MONDAY IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED WITH LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET EXIST. FURTHER EAST BETTER MOISTURE DECREASES AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN DECREASING POPS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. HILL CITY RECORD LOW FOR MONDAY MORNING IS 52. CURRENTLY FORECASTING 54. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT THEY WILL REACH 52 AS BULK OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE WEST OF THEM. ADD SOME VERY LIGHT WINDS AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THEM TO POSSIBLY BE A BIT LOWER THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. MAV GUIDANCE GIVES THEM 53 AND IS THE LOWEST OF THE BETTER PERFORMING MODELS...INCLUDING THE BIAS CORRECTED MODELS...OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS MONDAY LOW TO MID 70S IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED EAST OF THE STATE LINE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE DWINDLING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH HOW COOL TO MAKE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW A COMPLICATED AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TRENDS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN FOR LITTLE EAST MOVEMENT WITH A SLIGHT WEST MOVEMENT IN SOME CASES. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO COOL AND MOISTEN UP...ESPECIALLY TO OUR WEST. MODELS DID FINE AT MID LEVELS WITH MAYBE MODELS SLIGHTLY TOO FAR EAST WITH FEATURES/HEIGHTS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE UKMET... GFS AND CANADIAN ARE HANDLING THINGS THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF/GFS ON THE SURFACE WIND FIELD. NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. MONDAY NIGHT...JET AXIS/LIFT LIES ROUGHLY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE TRENDS SEEN ON THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE...A FURTHER WESTWARD TREND SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. SHORTWAVE AND JET NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OUT THERE. AGAIN LIGHT WINDS...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE...ESPECIALLY OUT EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER COOL AREA WIDE. PLAN ON GOING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. WILL BE NEAR RECORDS. REFER TO CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE JET POSITION/LIFT BUT LOOKS TO BE OVER EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN THERE IS A NOTICEABLE SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. PER REASONING ABOVE...LIKE THE MORE WESTWARD POSITION. SO THIS MEANS WHAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT THERE IS MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. THE ONLY INSTABILITY...AND VERY LITTLE AT THAT...WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OUT IN THE FAR WEST PORTION OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL HAVE A COOL START TO THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL START THE DAY NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME TYPE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY. SO PLAN ON GOING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE...THE WINDS IN THE EAST WILL BE AS LIGHT OR A LITTLE STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE TO DROP TO PRETTY COOL READINGS. WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE JET THROUGH THE DAY AS BEST LIFT FROM IT IS EITHER NEAR OUR WESTERN EDGE OR CONTINUES TO BE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA. THERE IS A LOW AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE CINH. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEP DRY LAYER. SO IF ANYTHING FORMS IT WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED WITH A LOW CHANCE OF ANY RAIN MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE IT DRY BUT NOT BE SURPRISED THAT WE MAY HAVE TO INSERT ISOLATED THE CLOSER WE GET TO IT. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO EASTERN UPPER LOW KEEP GETTING CLOSER. THIS MEANS COLDER AIR/COLD POOL ALOFT STARTS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH RATHER HIGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVING. EVEN THOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...MODELS ARE BEING PERSISTENT IN KEEPING A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND. THIS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WILL TEMPER THE WARMUP SOME. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TREND FROM YESTERDAY CONTINUES. MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES. EASTERN UPPER SYSTEM STILL MOVES BACK EAST. HOWEVER...IT STILL STAYS SOME DISTANCE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. EVEN WHEN IT DOES GET CLOSE...THE LOW STARTS TO FILL AND CONTINUES TO DO THAT AS IT MOVES AWAY. THERE APPEARS TO NOT BE VERY MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE FRONT THIS SYSTEM PUSHED SOUTH KEEPS THE GULF CUT OFF. PLUS IT APPEARS THAT IT PULLS IN MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT OR IS NOT ABLE TO TOP INTO ANY MOISTURE. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT EITHER ROTATE THROUGH IT OR ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER THE HEIGHT FIELD REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME OR SLOWLY RISES. SO WITH WEAK FLOW...WEAK LIFT...AND LIMITED MOISTURE...DECIDED TO REMOVE THE POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH_INIT GRIDS...ALBEIT THEY WERE ONLY SLIGHTS. SO THE ENTIRE PERIOD IS DRY IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK AND SUBTLE NATURE OF FEATURES AND LIFT... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED PRECIPITATION. SO WILL BE RATHER HARD TO PIN POINT THIS FAR OUT AND FEEL IT NOT APPROPRIATE TO BROADBRUSH POPS THE WHOLE TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013 VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING... BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME... CONTINUED THE VCSH MENTION FOR KGLD TAF AND LEFT KMCK DRY AS RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL STAY WEST OF KMCK. CEILINGS WILL DROP WITH THE SHOWERS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING BELOW 5000 FEET. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013 RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 1 HILL CITY-52 SET IN 1987 RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 2 MCCOOK-50 SET IN 1924 HILL CITY-52 SET IN 1988 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DDT LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...RRH CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
321 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS HAS AMPLIFIED AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO WHILE A MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE PLAINS IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS AREA IS JUST SKIRTING THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. SOME AREAS OF BARTON...RENO...KINGMAN AND HARPER COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S. BILLINGS && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY DIVE INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING...WE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S AND ACTUALLY DECREASING AS TIME GOES ON. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THE END OF JUNE/EARLY JULY. MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. THINK THE PLACEMENT WILL BE JUST A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS MONDAY APPROACHES. AS SOME ENERGY APPROACHES FOR MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BILLINGS .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 THE ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IMPACTING THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMS...IN THE 80S. EVENTUALLY A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THE RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE ENERGY OVER OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR DURING THE EXTENDED WITH THE MAIN WAVE STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BILLINGS && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY-MID MORNING SATURDAY GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM RUSSELL-HUTCHINSON-WELLINGTON...ALONG ZONE OF 700-600MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. AS SUCH HAVE INSERTED VCSH IN RSL-HUT-ICT TAFS. COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...MODEST/GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE SATURDAY...SUBSIDING BY EVENING. ADK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 90 63 82 60 / 10 10 0 0 HUTCHINSON 89 62 82 58 / 10 10 0 0 NEWTON 88 61 81 56 / 10 10 0 0 ELDORADO 87 61 81 55 / 10 10 10 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 90 63 83 58 / 10 10 0 0 RUSSELL 88 60 83 54 / 20 10 0 0 GREAT BEND 90 60 83 55 / 20 10 0 0 SALINA 87 61 82 58 / 10 10 0 0 MCPHERSON 88 61 82 57 / 10 10 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 87 63 81 59 / 0 10 10 10 CHANUTE 85 61 80 59 / 0 10 20 10 IOLA 84 60 79 60 / 0 10 20 10 PARSONS-KPPF 86 62 80 58 / 0 10 20 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1154 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS. ADK && UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 INCREASING 700-600MB CONVERGENCE IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BETWEEN ABOUT 2-9AM OVERNIGHT-SAT MORNING. LATEST RUC AND HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST POTENTIAL GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM RUSSELL TO HUTCHINSON TO WELLINGTON. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. ADK && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 80S WHILE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW-LYING AREAS FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. MWM && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY-MID MORNING SATURDAY GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM RUSSELL-HUTCHINSON-WELLINGTON...ALONG ZONE OF 700-600MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. AS SUCH HAVE INSERTED VCSH IN RSL-HUT-ICT TAFS. COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...MODEST/GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE SATURDAY...SUBSIDING BY EVENING. ADK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 67 89 63 84 / 0 0 0 10 HUTCHINSON 65 89 61 84 / 10 10 10 10 NEWTON 64 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 10 ELDORADO 65 86 60 82 / 0 0 0 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 65 89 61 84 / 0 0 10 10 RUSSELL 64 89 59 84 / 20 20 10 0 GREAT BEND 64 90 60 84 / 20 20 10 0 SALINA 66 88 61 84 / 0 0 0 10 MCPHERSON 65 89 60 84 / 0 0 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 66 86 62 81 / 0 0 0 10 CHANUTE 64 84 60 81 / 0 0 0 10 IOLA 64 83 60 80 / 0 0 0 10 PARSONS-KPPF 64 85 60 81 / 0 0 0 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1158 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 DID ANOTHER UPDATE TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PLOW NORTH...MAINLY INTO AREAS THAT SAW MORE LIMITED CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. WOULD EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ONCE IT GETS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY WHERE BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRED EARLIER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE RADAR TRENDS...WITH HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WARRANTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN A SHARP CUTOFF BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION DOWNSTREAM...AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP THE LOW TEMPERATURES A HAIR...WITH DEW POINTS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 CONVECTION APPEARS TO DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. HAVE RE-ALIGNED THE POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG A LINE FROM MOREHEAD...TO IRVINE...TO WHITLEY CITY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THIS COMING IN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT ITS CURRENT PACE...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH OUR BORDER CLOSER TO BETWEEN 10 AND 10:30 PM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 500MB LOW MADE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN KY THIS MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AN OCCLUDED FRONT HAS ALSO SET UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CREATING A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR MOISTURE LIFT AND PRECIP. 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS ALSO IMPLYING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF KY AND NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IN...OHIO...AND WV...WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION BEING OVER OHIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE GIVING INDICATIONS OF A BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL /DESPITE TSRA THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT/...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TODAY ONCE LLVL AND MID LEVEL CAPS HAVE BROKEN. SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BASED ON THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PREDOMINATE SW TO NE FLOW...STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MAKING THIS PATH THROUGH THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LOW WILL STILL PLAY A ROLE IN SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS...OCCLUDED FRONT AND BEST LIFT WILL BEGIN EXITING TO THE EAST. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE MORE OF A RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH SOME LINGERING TO ISOLATED TSRA STILL POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...SOME VALLEY FOG COULD NOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS. THINGS WILL CHANGE BY TOMORROW /MONDAY/ HOWEVER...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER SE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PULL THE OCCLUDED FRONT SLIGHTLY BACK WESTWARD AND PLACE A BULLSEYE OF QVECTOR CONV OVER NORTHERN KY...EASTERN IN...AND WESTERN OHIO...WITH REASONABLE CONV EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THREE STATES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH A BETTER POOL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT MUCH HIGHER PROB OF CONVECTION AND TSRA POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING PEAK. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SPEED SHEAR IS GOOD...BUT THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LACKING...SO EXPECT STORMS TO FOLLOW THE FLOW OF THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND DROP DOWN/REDEVELOP OFTEN. THE CHALLENGE IS THEN TRYING TO PINPOINT EXACT ONSET OF PRECIP AS WELL AS TRYING TO BEST TRACK WHERE THE CELLS WILL DEVELOP. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED WESTWARD BY THE STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST HEADING TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL WEAR DOWN THE PLAIN/S TROUGH HELPING IT TO FILL WHILE LESSENING ITS EFFECT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WHILE HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING LOCALLY AS THE TROUGH GIVES WAY TO RIDGING...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH DEEP LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THE EXTENDED...MINOR MID LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH LITTLE FORECASTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...BUT LIKELY TO PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED RIDGING MAY BUILD IN ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA... BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE POP HEAVY. ALL IN ALL...THE MODEL SIMILARITIES RAISE CONFIDENCE IN THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT THE CR GRID LOAD WILL PROVIDE...THOUGH AM WARY OF THE HIGHER POPS THIS WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RATHER DAMP...AND INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN...FOR EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE EXTENDED. THE DAILY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT STRAY ONES AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL AT NIGHT...AS WELL. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EAST MAY PUSH IN ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH A RATHER CLOUDY AND DAMP ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...DID NOT ADJUST THE RIDGES AND VALLEYS MUCH FOR LOWS. THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT ENOUGH...BUT PERHAPS TOO HIGH WITH POPS DURING THE NIGHT AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND SO HAVE NUDGED THEM DOWN. IN ADDITION...BUMPED MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION A VCSH ONLY AS THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE ACTIVITY. AT LEAST MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT JKL AND LOZ TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LOWER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. AT SME...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES AT VFR. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN RE-FIRE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1051 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE RADAR TRENDS...WITH HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WARRANTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN A SHARP CUTOFF BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION DOWNSTREAM...AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP THE LOW TEMPERATURES A HAIR...WITH DEW POINTS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 CONVECTION APPEARS TO DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. HAVE RE-ALIGNED THE POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG A LINE FROM MOREHEAD...TO IRVINE...TO WHITLEY CITY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THIS COMING IN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT ITS CURRENT PACE...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH OUR BORDER CLOSER TO BETWEEN 10 AND 10:30 PM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 500MB LOW MADE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN KY THIS MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AN OCCLUDED FRONT HAS ALSO SET UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CREATING A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR MOISTURE LIFT AND PRECIP. 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS ALSO IMPLYING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF KY AND NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IN...OHIO...AND WV...WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION BEING OVER OHIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE GIVING INDICATIONS OF A BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL /DESPITE TSRA THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT/...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TODAY ONCE LLVL AND MID LEVEL CAPS HAVE BROKEN. SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BASED ON THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PREDOMINATE SW TO NE FLOW...STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MAKING THIS PATH THROUGH THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LOW WILL STILL PLAY A ROLE IN SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS...OCCLUDED FRONT AND BEST LIFT WILL BEGIN EXITING TO THE EAST. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE MORE OF A RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH SOME LINGERING TO ISOLATED TSRA STILL POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...SOME VALLEY FOG COULD NOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS. THINGS WILL CHANGE BY TOMORROW /MONDAY/ HOWEVER...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER SE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PULL THE OCCLUDED FRONT SLIGHTLY BACK WESTWARD AND PLACE A BULLSEYE OF QVECTOR CONV OVER NORTHERN KY...EASTERN IN...AND WESTERN OHIO...WITH REASONABLE CONV EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THREE STATES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH A BETTER POOL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT MUCH HIGHER PROB OF CONVECTION AND TSRA POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING PEAK. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SPEED SHEAR IS GOOD...BUT THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LACKING...SO EXPECT STORMS TO FOLLOW THE FLOW OF THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND DROP DOWN/REDEVELOP OFTEN. THE CHALLENGE IS THEN TRYING TO PINPOINT EXACT ONSET OF PRECIP AS WELL AS TRYING TO BEST TRACK WHERE THE CELLS WILL DEVELOP. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED WESTWARD BY THE STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST HEADING TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL WEAR DOWN THE PLAIN/S TROUGH HELPING IT TO FILL WHILE LESSENING ITS EFFECT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WHILE HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING LOCALLY AS THE TROUGH GIVES WAY TO RIDGING...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH DEEP LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THE EXTENDED...MINOR MID LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH LITTLE FORECASTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...BUT LIKELY TO PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED RIDGING MAY BUILD IN ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA... BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE POP HEAVY. ALL IN ALL...THE MODEL SIMILARITIES RAISE CONFIDENCE IN THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT THE CR GRID LOAD WILL PROVIDE...THOUGH AM WARY OF THE HIGHER POPS THIS WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RATHER DAMP...AND INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN...FOR EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE EXTENDED. THE DAILY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT STRAY ONES AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL AT NIGHT...AS WELL. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EAST MAY PUSH IN ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH A RATHER CLOUDY AND DAMP ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...DID NOT ADJUST THE RIDGES AND VALLEYS MUCH FOR LOWS. THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT ENOUGH...BUT PERHAPS TOO HIGH WITH POPS DURING THE NIGHT AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND SO HAVE NUDGED THEM DOWN. IN ADDITION...BUMPED MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION A VCSH ONLY AS THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE ACTIVITY. AT LEAST MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT JKL AND LOZ TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LOWER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. AT SME...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES AT VFR. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN RE-FIRE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 CONVECTION APPEARS TO DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. HAVE RE-ALIGNED THE POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG A LINE FROM MOREHEAD...TO IRVINE...TO WHITLEY CITY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THIS COMING IN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT ITS CURRENT PACE...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH OUR BORDER CLOSER TO BETWEEN 10 AND 10:30 PM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 500MB LOW MADE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN KY THIS MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AN OCCLUDED FRONT HAS ALSO SET UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CREATING A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR MOISTURE LIFT AND PRECIP. 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS ALSO IMPLYING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF KY AND NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IN...OHIO...AND WV...WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION BEING OVER OHIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE GIVING INDICATIONS OF A BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL /DESPITE TSRA THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT/...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TODAY ONCE LLVL AND MID LEVEL CAPS HAVE BROKEN. SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BASED ON THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PREDOMINATE SW TO NE FLOW...STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MAKING THIS PATH THROUGH THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LOW WILL STILL PLAY A ROLE IN SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS...OCCLUDED FRONT AND BEST LIFT WILL BEGIN EXITING TO THE EAST. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE MORE OF A RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH SOME LINGERING TO ISOLATED TSRA STILL POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...SOME VALLEY FOG COULD NOT BE OUTRULED IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS. THINGS WILL CHANGE BY TOMORROW /MONDAY/ HOWEVER...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER SE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PULL THE OCCLUDED FRONT SLIGHTLY BACK WESTWARD AND PLACE A BULLSEYE OF QVECTOR CONV OVER NORTHERN KY...EASTERN IN...AND WESTERN OHIO...WITH REASONABLE CONV EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THREE STATES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH A BETTER POOL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT MUCH HIGHER PROB OF CONVECTION AND TSRA POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING PEAK. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SPEED SHEAR IS GOOD...BUT THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LACKING...SO EXPECT STORMS TO FOLLOW THE FLOW OF THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND DROP DOWN/REDEVELOP OFTEN. THE CHALLENGE IS THEN TRYING TO PINPOINT EXACT ONSET OF PRECIP AS WELL AS TRYING TO BEST TRACK WHERE THE CELLS WILL DEVELOP. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED WESTWARD BY THE STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST HEADING TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL WEAR DOWN THE PLAIN/S TROUGH HELPING IT TO FILL WHILE LESSENING ITS EFFECT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WHILE HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING LOCALLY AS THE TROUGH GIVES WAY TO RIDGING...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH DEEP LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THE EXTENDED...MINOR MID LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH LITTLE FORECASTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...BUT LIKELY TO PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED RIDGING MAY BUILD IN ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA... BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE POP HEAVY. ALL IN ALL...THE MODEL SIMILARITIES RAISE CONFIDENCE IN THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT THE CR GRID LOAD WILL PROVIDE...THOUGH AM WARY OF THE HIGHER POPS THIS WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RATHER DAMP...AND INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN...FOR EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE EXTENDED. THE DAILY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT STRAY ONES AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL AT NIGHT...AS WELL. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EAST MAY PUSH IN ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH A RATHER CLOUDY AND DAMP ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...DID NOT ADJUST THE RIDGES AND VALLEYS MUCH FOR LOWS. THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT ENOUGH...BUT PERHAPS TOO HIGH WITH POPS DURING THE NIGHT AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND SO HAVE NUDGED THEM DOWN. IN ADDITION...BUMPED MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION A VCSH ONLY AS THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE ACTIVITY. AT LEAST MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT JKL AND LOZ TONIGHT GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LOWER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. AT SME...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES AT VFR. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN RE-FIRE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
139 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 916 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 LATEST HRRR RUN IS SHOWING SCT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BY 16Z AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING THAT HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS SOONER IN THE DAY TO COVER ANY SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCT CU DEVELOPING AND MOVING SE...SO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY INCREASE AS WE GET LATER IN THE MORNING. OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR TWEEKS WERE MADE FOR TODAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BY A FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A UNCHARACTERISTIC UPPER LOW AND TROUGH ARE GOING TO START DROPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME THIS TROUGH IS DROPPING DOWN...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AN EXTRA BOOST NEEDED TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE ONE THING THAT IS HELPING TO RETARD DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS SOME WARM AIR IN THE MID LAYERS BETWEEN 500 -600 HPA. THIS WILL HELP TO CAP THE STORMS SOMEWHAT AND IS WHAT IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED VERSUS NUMEROUS. WITH THE WEAK SHEAR AND CAPPING IN THE MID LAYERS...THIS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET A THUNDERSTORM TODAY...MUCH LESS A SEVERE ONE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER WITH ONLY A STRAY STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...THE CAPPING IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED...SO THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD STILL BE ONLY THE GARDEN VARIETY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH. WENT ABOUT ONE DEGREE COOLER THAN THE MODEL BLEND. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BACKS TO THE EAST COAST TO END THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER OUR REGION SUPPLYING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY BASED WITH WEAK TRIGGERS SO WILL ADVERTISE POPS AND SKY COVER PEAKING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE BIT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS... INCHING UP A TAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THESE SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...MAINLY IMPACTING AS FAR SOUTH AS KJKL. HOWEVER...A SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR KSME/KLOZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HAVE FAR LESS IMPACT/COVERAGE THAN THOSE TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WITHOUT SEEING ANY ONGOING EVIDENCE OF SHRA/TSRA HEADED TOWARDS THE KSME/KLOZ TAF SITES...ONLY WENT VCTS AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DIE DOWN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPAWN FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 6Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ARE PEGGING KSME FOR HAVING THE WORST VIS...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN GOING BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME. AS FOG MIXES OUT IN THE MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE...EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR TS DEVELOPMENT AT ALL TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
916 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 916 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 LATEST HRRR RUN IS SHOWING SCT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BY 16Z AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING THAT HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS SOONER IN THE DAY TO COVER ANY SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCT CU DEVELOPING AND MOVING SE...SO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY INCREASE AS WE GET LATER IN THE MORNING. OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR TWEEKS WERE MADE FOR TODAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BY A FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST MODEL TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A UNCHARACTERISTIC UPPER LOW AND TROUGH ARE GOING TO START DROPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME THIS TROUGH IS DROPPING DOWN...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AN EXTRA BOOST NEEDED TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE ONE THING THAT IS HELPING TO RETARD DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS SOME WARM AIR IN THE MID LAYERS BETWEEN 500 -600 HPA. THIS WILL HELP TO CAP THE STORMS SOMEWHAT AND IS WHAT IS LIMITING THE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED VERSUS NUMEROUS. WITH THE WEAK SHEAR AND CAPPING IN THE MID LAYERS...THIS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET A THUNDERSTORM TODAY...MUCH LESS A SEVERE ONE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER WITH ONLY A STRAY STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...THE CAPPING IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED...SO THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD STILL BE ONLY THE GARDEN VARIETY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH. WENT ABOUT ONE DEGREE COOLER THAN THE MODEL BLEND. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BACKS TO THE EAST COAST TO END THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER OUR REGION SUPPLYING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY BASED WITH WEAK TRIGGERS SO WILL ADVERTISE POPS AND SKY COVER PEAKING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE BIT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS... INCHING UP A TAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTION WOULD BE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAPPEN TO PASS OVER ANY OF OUR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE DEEP VALLEYS TOMORROW MORNING THAT WILL HAVE SOME VLIFR FOG. THE TAF STATIONS SHOULD NOT BE SEEING ANY FOG THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 4Z IN THE VALLEYS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
550 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KEEPING THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NH AND CENTRAL MAINE NEAR AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THESE MOVE NE. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE ALSO A CONCERN AS CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED...AND WHILE THE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH LOWER LCLS AND BETTER 0-1 KM SHEAR...LACK OF OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT LOW. MUCH OF THE COAST REMAINS IN AN AREA OF CIN THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CELLS NOW FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF NH HAVE MUCH LESS TO WORK WITH AND WILL BE RELYING PRIMARILY ON UPSLOPE INFLUENCES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRACKING THIS CONECTIVE EVENT WELL AND HAVE BASED POPS AND QPF ON ITS OUTPUT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG SFC HEATING HAS PUSHED THE WARM FNT THRU MOST OF NH AND NEARBY WRN ME. THIS HAS YIELDED BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE ACROSS THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...MID LVL JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING 40-50 EFFECTIVE SHEAR...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...S/WV TROF HAS RACED ACROSS THE REGION...EFFECTIVELY LEAVING BEHIND THE BEST INSTABILITY. THE RESULT HAS BEEN CONVECTION THAT IS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE. IT HAS BEEN TIED TO HIGH TERRAIN FOR INITIATION...AND HAS STRUGGLED AS IT MOVES NEWD. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING MECHANISM...FEEL THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. UNTIL THEN ISOLD TO SCT STRONGER STORMS WILL BE PSBL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DMGG WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS...AS WELL AS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LVLS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY NEAR DIFFUSE CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER WRN NH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE FLASH FLOODING. HIGH PWAT AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE...AND STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE SLOWLY ADVANCING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THEM TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS AGAIN AND AGAIN. THIS RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SRN NH LAST EVENING...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS CAN/T OCCUR AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE REMNANT CONVECTION WILL DRIFT EWD INTO WRN ME THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY. ONSHORE FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY BRING MARINE LAYER FOG/STRATUS BACK INTO COASTAL ZONES AGAIN TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FOR SUNDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECT EVEN THOUGH SOME RIDING ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE SFC HEATING. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP A MOIST AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A SFC BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A 8 TO 12 HOUR HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PWATS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVERS AND STREAMS AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A VERY WET JUNE. THIS JUNE IN PORTLAND IS NOW THE SIXTH WETTEST SINCE 1871. THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OUT EARLY TUESDAY BUT IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING IN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE MORE RIDING MOVING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE IN FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF RAIN/ SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST...ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE A BIT DAYTIME SUNDAY. BACK TO IFR IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTN THEN IFR IN FOG SUNDAY NIGHT FOG. LONG TERM...EXPECT IFR MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND IFR MONDAY NIGHT IN FOG. MORE IFR TUESDAY AS MORE HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING WED BUT SCATTERED IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON. IFR IN FOG WED NIGHT. MOSTLY VFR THURSDAY EXCEPT IN ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT PENOBSCOT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS FOR SEAS AOA 5 FEET...MAINLY IN SWELLS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WIND CONTRIBUTION. LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
938 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 940 PM UPDATE... AS EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL USE 30-40 POPS TO COVER REMAINING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. RE-TIMED PRECIP ONSET SLIGHTLY BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST. 730 PM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS ATTM. CURRENTLY WATCHING CONVECTION, WHICH WE ANTICIPATE WILL WEAKEN BETWEEN 730 PM AND 10 PM WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. 4 PM UPDATE... FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF IT LOCALIZED BUT IN SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD FLOODING A FEW DAYS AGO. ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SE TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. MORE DETAILS AT BOTTOM. A SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM PIT TO ALY ACROSS THE CWA. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSE OF SFC HEATING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELPED BY A SHORT WAVE. WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE MEANT SLOW MOVING CONVECTION. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 4 PM UPDATE... SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS TO CHANGE LITTLE MONDAY TO TUESDAY. THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES AND MAYBE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT COMBINED WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UL JET CREATING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGE OFF OF ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE WEST TIGHTENING THE CONVERGENCE OVER NY PA. WITH HEATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AFTER MONDAY SUBTLE FEATURES WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP. WITH NO CAP AND MARGINAL SHEAR AND CAPE ANY SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1145 AM EDT UPDATE... MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND. LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST /LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 00Z UPDATE... WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH KBGM/KELM EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND 02Z. MORE SHOWERY TYPE WEATHER EXPECTED AT KITH AND VFR AT KSYR/KRME AND KAVP FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR TO IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO BRING MVFR CONDS AFTER 14Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE NORTH. OUTLOOK... MON AFTN THROUGH FRI...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... 4 PM UPDATE... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS ALBANY. ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND DELAWARE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY, CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN INCH IN THE WATCH AREA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...MDP/PVN HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
950 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 PM SUNDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... TONIGHT... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES ALL THE WAY NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR GREENSBORO (WHICH REPORTED 1.86 PW AT 00Z/THIS EVENING). AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A STRENGTHENING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WAS ALSO AIDING THE STRONG SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS SC/NC INTO VA. THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN OVERTURNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ALMOST ALL OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION STILL ONGOING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SPREADING OUTWARD FROM THE CORE OF THE EXPANSIVE STABILIZED ZONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT (WHERE THE CONVECTION EARLIER PRODUCED LIFE THREATENING FLOODING OVER CHATHAM AND ORANGE COUNTIES). IT IS ALONG THESE OUTFLOWS WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION MAY STILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 100 OR 200 AM... NAMELY FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT... AND BACK OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH POP FOR FAY TO RDU TO RWI THROUGH THAT TIME... WITH LOWERING POP ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ONLY ROUND ONE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH... EXCESSIVELY WET PW`S... AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES (LEAD ON OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA TONIGHT). CONVECTION CAN RE-FIRE QUICKLY IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT... EVEN LATE AT NIGHT (BUT MOST LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY WITH HEATING). REGARDLESS... TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE VERY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. -BADGETT && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY... OVERALL: OUR PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS OR BANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WE ARE CERTAIN TO SEE POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES LOCALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE SLOW-MOVING AND/OR REPEATED STORMS. RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT: WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN CONSTANTLY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME... THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS (AND LIKELY LONGER) OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE... INCLUDING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE SHARPENING UPPER JET FROM ERN TN/KY THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS... AND REPEATED SHOTS OF DPVA AS PERTURBATIONS RIDE FROM THE NE GULF UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IN PARTICULAR... BOTH CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED-CONVECTION MODELS LATCH ONTO THE MID LEVEL MCV OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD WHILE DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING SSW STEERING FLOW NORTHWARD TOWARD NC TONIGHT. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE (NOTED ON MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE PLOTS) NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IN ADDITION TO THE STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS... MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY HOLDS OVER CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE STAYING IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT... AND RISING TO 800-1600 ON MONDAY. (IN THE NEAR TERM... MESOANALYSES SHOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM... AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS.) DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VERY HIGH PW AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING IN DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS... AS THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH OVER 4 KM) WILL ENCOURAGE WARM RAIN PROCESSES... AND THE ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ARE AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS... EVEN IF IT ONLY RAINS HEAVILY FOR 15-30 MINUTES IN ANY GIVEN SPOT... RAPID RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN COULD EASILY FALL... LEADING TO RAPID RUNOFF AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT ON ANY STREETS AND ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION... STORMS MAY HOLD IN THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED TIME AS CELLS MAY TEND TO PROPAGATE BACK TO THE SW... AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP RUNS SHOWING LOWERING MBE VELOCITIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDS BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70-90% CHANCE EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AS BOTH STORM-SCALE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN A VOLATILE AND VERY WET COLUMN APPEAR INEVITABLE... AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COUPLE OF RELATIVE LULLS WITH ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... IT IS DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN WHEN SUCH A LULL MIGHT OCCUR. AND EVEN DURING TIMES OF LOWER STORM COVERAGE... INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD STILL DROP BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. CLOUDS/TEMPS: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND... AND ANY SIGNIFICANT HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN WITH EITHER STRATUS AT NIGHT OR CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. THIS... IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEADY BREEZE FROM THE SSE OR SOUTH... SHOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH WARM NIGHTS (LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S). WCENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A DEEP...MOISTURE SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHIFTS ONLY SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO EXPAND. PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES...IF NOT INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALSO SHIFTS WESTWARD. MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A WAVE PASSING MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCE PRECIP...BUT GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THIS PATTERN...ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF QPF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CARRIED OUT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AND MAY POSSIBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY IN SOME AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY /SHEAR DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY...TAILING OFF TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....SHIFTING THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THUS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 916 PM SUNDAY... GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS... AND LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z... WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR KGSO/KINT/KRDU... BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -SEC LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MONDAY... SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING. BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE RESTRICTED TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS... WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WELL. WE SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC STARTS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088- 089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...SEC/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
917 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION... AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION... WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK... WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... OVERALL: OUR PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS OR BANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WE ARE CERTAIN TO SEE POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES LOCALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE SLOW-MOVING AND/OR REPEATED STORMS. RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT: WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN CONSTANTLY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME... THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS (AND LIKELY LONGER) OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE... INCLUDING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE SHARPENING UPPER JET FROM ERN TN/KY THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS... AND REPEATED SHOTS OF DPVA AS PERTURBATIONS RIDE FROM THE NE GULF UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IN PARTICULAR... BOTH CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED-CONVECTION MODELS LATCH ONTO THE MID LEVEL MCV OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD WHILE DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING SSW STEERING FLOW NORTHWARD TOWARD NC TONIGHT. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE (NOTED ON MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE PLOTS) NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IN ADDITION TO THE STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS... MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY HOLDS OVER CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE STAYING IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT... AND RISING TO 800-1600 ON MONDAY. (IN THE NEAR TERM... MESOANALYSES SHOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM... AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS.) DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VERY HIGH PW AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING IN DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS... AS THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH OVER 4 KM) WILL ENCOURAGE WARM RAIN PROCESSES... AND THE ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ARE AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS... EVEN IF IT ONLY RAINS HEAVILY FOR 15-30 MINUTES IN ANY GIVEN SPOT... RAPID RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN COULD EASILY FALL... LEADING TO RAPID RUNOFF AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT ON ANY STREETS AND ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION... STORMS MAY HOLD IN THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED TIME AS CELLS MAY TEND TO PROPAGATE BACK TO THE SW... AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP RUNS SHOWING LOWERING MBE VELOCITIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDS BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70-90% CHANCE EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AS BOTH STORM-SCALE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN A VOLATILE AND VERY WET COLUMN APPEAR INEVITABLE... AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COUPLE OF RELATIVE LULLS WITH ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... IT IS DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN WHEN SUCH A LULL MIGHT OCCUR. AND EVEN DURING TIMES OF LOWER STORM COVERAGE... INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD STILL DROP BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. CLOUDS/TEMPS: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND... AND ANY SIGNIFICANT HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN WITH EITHER STRATUS AT NIGHT OR CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. THIS... IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEADY BREEZE FROM THE SSE OR SOUTH... SHOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH WARM NIGHTS (LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S) AND WARM HUMID DAYS (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S). -GIH && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY... CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A DEEP...MOISTURE SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHIFTS ONLY SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO EXPAND. PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES...IF NOT INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALSO SHIFTS WESTWARD. MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A WAVE PASSING MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCE PRECIP...BUT GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THIS PATTERN...ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF QPF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CARRIED OUT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AND MAY POSSIBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY IN SOME AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY /SHEAR DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY...TAILING OFF TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....SHIFTING THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THUS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 916 PM SUNDAY... GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS... AND LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z... WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR KGSO/KINT/KRDU... BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -SEC LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MONDAY... SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING. BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE RESTRICTED TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS... WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WELL. WE SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC STARTS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088- 089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...SEC/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY... THROUGH TONIGHT: RELATIVE BREAK IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS SO FAR TODAY. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN NOTABLY LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH CURRENT MUCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG AND MLCAPE OF 500-2000 J/KG... LIKELY DUE IN PART TO COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FROM 925-850 MB AS COMPARED TO PAST DAYS... AND LOWER PW (1.2-1.8 IN. FROM WEST TO EAST ACCORDING TO BLENDED TPW IMAGERY). WE SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RANGING FROM ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED IN THE ERN CWA INTO TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC (AND A BIT FAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A WEAK BUT DISTINCT LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATING NORTHEAST THROUGH WRN NC/VA AND ANOTHER PERTURBATION TRACKING UP THE NC COAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN HIGHER OVER OUR NW (AROUND 40 KTS) AND LOWER DOWN EAST (25-30 KTS AT MOST) AND IS EXPECTED TO ACTUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL WSW WINDS BACK TO SSW AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE WRN OH VALLEY. SO WITH FURTHER LOWERING OF ALREADY-MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING (LATEST RAP RUNS TAKE MLCAPE BELOW 800 J/KG OVERNIGHT)... SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA EAST OF I-95 WHERE PW AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAIN ELEVATED RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... PERSISTENCE... AND THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. LOWS 68-73. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN HERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT TODAY LARGELY DISSIPATES BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST... PLACING CENTRAL NC IN A UNIFORM SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK AS WELL TO A SSW DIRECTION AS THE POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY RESULTING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WITHIN THIS FLOW THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES WILL SURGE BACK TO THE NORTH AND NW THROUGH CENTRAL NC... WITH MODELS INDICATING VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES... WHICH IS AT OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 35-45 KTS... BUT MLCAPE SHOULD PEAK AT JUST 1000-1500 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS... THE SWRLY UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY TO 100+ KTS FROM ERN KY THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY... AND THE RESULTING INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS RIDING TO THE NNE THROUGH NC AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SRLY JET TO 25-30 KTS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL BUT WIDESPREAD STRENGTHENING IN FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS LARGE SCALE MODERATE LIFT ACCOMPANYING A SOMEWHAT DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH NEAR 4 KM) SHOULD ALLOW WARM RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE... FURTHERING THE THREAT OF FLOODING WITH EXPECTATIONS OF NUMEROUS MULTICELL CLUSTER PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SREF OUTPUT SHOWS THAT MOST OF ITS MEMBERS GENERATE FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... AND WHILE THIS RAINFALL BY ITSELF WOULD ORDINARILY NOT CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS... THE ANTECEDENT WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS -- ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 -- ELEVATE THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING... ESPECIALLY OVER STANLY COUNTY WHICH HAD FLOODING AFTER RECEIVING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. BUT IT`S DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE PRECISELY WHICH AREAS WILL RECEIVE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OVER A SIZABLE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW CERTAINTY AS TO THE OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVIER AMOUNTS... WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW... HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL CONSIDER THIS RISK FURTHER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND ARE ABLE TO ZERO IN ON THE LOCATIONS MOSTLY LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHS A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY... 83-86 WITH EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. LOWS 68-73. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY... THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...QUASI-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND AN STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE PUMP DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A PLUME OF PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...AND AS HIGH AS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE GEFS...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LONGWAVE RETROGRADES A BIT. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STRETCHING FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS NEE ENGLAND SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MONDAY...THEN RE-ENERGIZE OVER THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND BROAD...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PERIODICALLY AIDED BY SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR QPF SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NC TO WESTERN NC BY WEDNESDAY. SREF QPF PLUMES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY...AND GEFS SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH HPC 5-DAY QPF TOTALS...AND WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CONVECTION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH DURING THE PERIOD DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AND AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT. REGARDING TEMPS...THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE MAY CONCEIVABLY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN SOME AREAS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE POLAR JET RETREATS TO CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE SOUTHEAST US IN A WEAKER FLOW...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING WEST FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC. WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS...CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL ACCORDINGLY RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 105 PM SATURDAY... SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS PERSIST AT RDU/RWI/FAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT.. REACHING VFR BY 19-20Z. BESIDES SOME MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS NEAR RWI 18Z-20Z... THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING APPEARS SMALL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THESE WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES FOR ANY MORE THAN A HALF HOUR. HOWEVER... MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR FAY/RWI AFTER 20Z WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL NC PAST NIGHTFALL... BUT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER 07Z TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR THEN VFR BETWEEN 13Z-16Z SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NC AFTER 16Z. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... AS SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THESE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORM CLUSTERS DEVELOP. SUB-VFR STRATUS/FOG SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND IN STRATUS/FOG EARLY EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED... WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD A MORE VFR-DOMINANT PATTERN BY LATE WED INTO THU. -GIH && .HYDROLOGY... A DEEP...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE NO RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MODEST RISES ON MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...HARTFIELD HYDROLOGY...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
256 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY... REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: LATEST DATA SUPPORTS CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BUT THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC MAY GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE MORE RAINS ARRIVE IN THE COMING FEW DAYS. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NW NC/SW VA FORCED IN PART BY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL DPVA ALONG THE 700 MB FRONT... WHILE ELSEWHERE... MID CLOUDS STREAKING OFF OF LAST NIGHT`S MCS OVER SRN MS/AL STREAM OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ELEVATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 850 MB FRONT... AND WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST. THE 850 MB FRONT MADE GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVELS COOLING MARKEDLY... DENOTED BY 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM 20C TO 16C AT GSO FROM 00Z TO 12Z... WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT COOLING ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PW VALUES HAVE DIPPED AS WELL IN THE WEST WITH READINGS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS AT GSO NOTED IN THE SOUNDING AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY. BUT PW REMAINS HIGH AT 1.8-2.0 INCHES EAST OF THE 850 MB FRONT... MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-95... WHERE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL BOOST WHATEVER ASCENT CAN BE ACHIEVED VIA THE INCREASING BUOYANCY THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD HELP CURB INSTABILITY A BIT... BUT STILL EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACCORDING TO RECENT RAP RUNS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HERE WILL BE LOWER THAN TO THE NORTHWEST... JUST 20-25 KTS... SO THIS MAY LIMIT ORGANIZATION SOMEWHAT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS SE OF RALEIGH TRENDING TO LOW CHANCES FROM RALEIGH TO THE NW FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW FORECAST PACE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE MID CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED HEATING. WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL/SE CWA... WITH 84-89 AREAWIDE. THE VORTICITY MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO IL/IN LATER TODAY WILL LEAD TO OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY BACKING WINDS ALOFT OVER NC TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET WITH THE RAP SHOWING MLCAPE UNDER 800 J/KG OVERNIGHT AND LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING LITTLE RECOVERY OF HIGHER PW BACK WESTWARD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT... SO WILL TREND TO LOW CHANCES OF LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY EAST. LOWS 69-73. -GIH SUNDAY: AS ENERGY ALOFT DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING/SUNDAY... DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA... PUMPING MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE CHANCES. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE TIED TO SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING AS PW`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" RANGE. HOWEVER... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE.... THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE HAMPERED A BIT BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THUS... GIVEN THE POSSIBLE MULTI-CELLAR BAND/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... EXPECT WE MAY HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL DAMAGING WIND THREAT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 84-87 DEGREE RANGE THANKS TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE/STORMS/CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY... THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...QUASI-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROUGH/RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND AN STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE PUMP DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A PLUME OF PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...AND AS HIGH AS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE GEFS...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LONGWAVE RETROGRADES A BIT. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STRETCHING FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS NEE ENGLAND SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MONDAY...THEN RE-ENERGIZE OVER THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND BROAD...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PERIODICALLY AIDED BY SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR QPF SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NC TO WESTERN NC BY WEDNESDAY. SREF QPF PLUMES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY...AND GEFS SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH HPC 5-DAY QPF TOTALS...AND WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DUE TO CONVECTION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH DURING THE PERIOD DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AND AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT. REGARDING TEMPS...THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE MAY CONCEIVABLY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN SOME AREAS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE POLAR JET RETREATS TO CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE SOUTHEAST US IN A WEAKER FLOW...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING WEST FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC. WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS...CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL ACCORDINGLY RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 105 PM SATURDAY... SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS PERSIST AT RDU/RWI/FAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT.. REACHING VFR BY 19-20Z. BESIDES SOME MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS NEAR RWI 18Z-20Z... THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING APPEARS SMALL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THESE WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES FOR ANY MORE THAN A HALF HOUR. HOWEVER... MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR FAY/RWI AFTER 20Z WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL NC PAST NIGHTFALL... BUT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER 07Z TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR THEN VFR BETWEEN 13Z-16Z SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NC AFTER 16Z. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... AS SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THESE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORM CLUSTERS DEVELOP. SUB-VFR STRATUS/FOG SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND IN STRATUS/FOG EARLY EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED... WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD A MORE VFR-DOMINANT PATTERN BY LATE WED INTO THU. -GIH && .HYDROLOGY... A DEEP...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE NO RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MODEST RISES ON MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...HARTFIELD HYDROLOGY...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY... REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: LATEST DATA SUPPORTS CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BUT THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC MAY GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE MORE RAINS ARRIVE IN THE COMING FEW DAYS. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NW NC/SW VA FORCED IN PART BY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL DPVA ALONG THE 700 MB FRONT... WHILE ELSEWHERE... MID CLOUDS STREAKING OFF OF LAST NIGHT`S MCS OVER SRN MS/AL STREAM OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ELEVATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 850 MB FRONT... AND WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST. THE 850 MB FRONT MADE GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVELS COOLING MARKEDLY... DENOTED BY 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM 20C TO 16C AT GSO FROM 00Z TO 12Z... WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT COOLING ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PW VALUES HAVE DIPPED AS WELL IN THE WEST WITH READINGS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS AT GSO NOTED IN THE SOUNDING AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY. BUT PW REMAINS HIGH AT 1.8-2.0 INCHES EAST OF THE 850 MB FRONT... MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-95... WHERE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL BOOST WHATEVER ASCENT CAN BE ACHIEVED VIA THE INCREASING BUOYANCY THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD HELP CURB INSTABILITY A BIT... BUT STILL EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACCORDING TO RECENT RAP RUNS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HERE WILL BE LOWER THAN TO THE NORTHWEST... JUST 20-25 KTS... SO THIS MAY LIMIT ORGANIZATION SOMEWHAT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS SE OF RALEIGH TRENDING TO LOW CHANCES FROM RALEIGH TO THE NW FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW FORECAST PACE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE MID CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED HEATING. WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL/SE CWA... WITH 84-89 AREAWIDE. THE VORTICITY MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO IL/IN LATER TODAY WILL LEAD TO OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY BACKING WINDS ALOFT OVER NC TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET WITH THE RAP SHOWING MLCAPE UNDER 800 J/KG OVERNIGHT AND LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING LITTLE RECOVERY OF HIGHER PW BACK WESTWARD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT... SO WILL TREND TO LOW CHANCES OF LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY EAST. LOWS 69-73. -GIH SUNDAY: AS ENERGY ALOFT DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING/SUNDAY... DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA... PUMPING MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE CHANCES. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE TIED TO SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING AS PW`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" RANGE. HOWEVER... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE.... THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE HAMPERED A BIT BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THUS... GIVEN THE POSSIBLE MULTI-CELLAR BAND/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... EXPECT WE MAY HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL DAMAGING WIND THREAT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 84-87 DEGREE RANGE THANKS TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE/STORMS/CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 308 AM SATURDAY... AN ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH-TN VALLEYS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH PLENTY OF WARM TROPICAL AIR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES PROJECTED TO RANGE IN THE 2-2.25 INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS ALONG WITH A VORTICITY AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH-TO-NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND FIELD AND THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY MOVE REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION. THIS OCCURRENCE MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND ABUNDANT SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 308 AM SATURDAY... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS AS SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT AND A MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DECREASE POPS..MOST NOTABLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUN WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 105 PM SATURDAY... SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS PERSIST AT RDU/RWI/FAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT.. REACHING VFR BY 19-20Z. BESIDES SOME MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS NEAR RWI 18Z-20Z... THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING APPEARS SMALL WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THESE WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NC TAF SITES FOR ANY MORE THAN A HALF HOUR. HOWEVER... MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR FAY/RWI AFTER 20Z WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL NC PAST NIGHTFALL... BUT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER 07Z TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR THEN VFR BETWEEN 13Z-16Z SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NC AFTER 16Z. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... AS SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THESE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORM CLUSTERS DEVELOP. SUB-VFR STRATUS/FOG SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING AND IN STRATUS/FOG EARLY EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED... WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD A MORE VFR-DOMINANT PATTERN BY LATE WED INTO THU. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BSD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY... REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: LATEST DATA SUPPORTS CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... BUT THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC MAY GET A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE MORE RAINS ARRIVE IN THE COMING FEW DAYS. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NW NC/SW VA FORCED IN PART BY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL DPVA ALONG THE 700 MB FRONT... WHILE ELSEWHERE... MID CLOUDS STREAKING OFF OF LAST NIGHT`S MCS OVER SRN MS/AL STREAM OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ELEVATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 850 MB FRONT... AND WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS PERSIST. THE 850 MB FRONT MADE GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVELS COOLING MARKEDLY... DENOTED BY 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM 20C TO 16C AT GSO FROM 00Z TO 12Z... WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT COOLING ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PW VALUES HAVE DIPPED AS WELL IN THE WEST WITH READINGS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS AT GSO NOTED IN THE SOUNDING AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY. BUT PW REMAINS HIGH AT 1.8-2.0 INCHES EAST OF THE 850 MB FRONT... MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-95... WHERE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL BOOST WHATEVER ASCENT CAN BE ACHIEVED VIA THE INCREASING BUOYANCY THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD HELP CURB INSTABILITY A BIT... BUT STILL EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACCORDING TO RECENT RAP RUNS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HERE WILL BE LOWER THAN TO THE NORTHWEST... JUST 20-25 KTS... SO THIS MAY LIMIT ORGANIZATION SOMEWHAT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS SE OF RALEIGH TRENDING TO LOW CHANCES FROM RALEIGH TO THE NW FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW FORECAST PACE ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE MID CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED HEATING. WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL/SE CWA... WITH 84-89 AREAWIDE. THE VORTICITY MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO IL/IN LATER TODAY WILL LEAD TO OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY BACKING WINDS ALOFT OVER NC TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WANES AFTER SUNSET WITH THE RAP SHOWING MLCAPE UNDER 800 J/KG OVERNIGHT AND LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING LITTLE RECOVERY OF HIGHER PW BACK WESTWARD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT... SO WILL TREND TO LOW CHANCES OF LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY EAST. LOWS 69-73. -GIH SUNDAY: AS ENERGY ALOFT DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING/SUNDAY... DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA... PUMPING MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE CHANCES. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE TIED TO SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING AS PW`S ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" RANGE. HOWEVER... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE.... THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE HAMPERED A BIT BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THUS... GIVEN THE POSSIBLE MULTI-CELLAR BAND/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... EXPECT WE MAY HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL DAMAGING WIND THREAT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 84-87 DEGREE RANGE THANKS TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE/STORMS/CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 308 AM SATURDAY... AN ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH-TN VALLEYS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL SUPPLY OUR REGION WITH PLENTY OF WARM TROPICAL AIR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES PROJECTED TO RANGE IN THE 2-2.25 INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS ALONG WITH A VORTICITY AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH-TO-NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND FIELD AND THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY MOVE REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION. THIS OCCURRENCE MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. PLAN TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND ABUNDANT SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 308 AM SATURDAY... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME AND ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS AS SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT AND A MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DECREASE POPS..MOST NOTABLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUN WILL WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 750 AM SATURDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: AREAS OF LIFR/IFR FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN (KGSO/KIN/KRDU/KRWI)... WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS (KFAY). EXPECT THIS CIGS TO GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AT THE LATEST... WITH PERHAPS KFAY HANGING ONTO SUB-VFR CIGS THE LONGEST... WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE GREATEST. WRT PRECIP CHANCES TODAY... EXPECT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH VCSH AT KFAY ONLY... WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS... AS MOISTURE IS THE GREATEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH... EXPECT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TODAY... WILL JUST INTRODUCE A SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE 003-008 RANGE AT 09Z SUNDAY. LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY... DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS (PRIMARILY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT) AND SHALLOW EARLY-MORNING IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BSD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
639 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS WEST OF THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY BREAK COME THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH MORE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION WAS POSTED IN ERROR. THE CORRECT NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. COMBINATION OF THE H/5 TOUGH ALOFT AND A SURFACE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A STALLED FRONT TO OUR WEST AND THE BERMUDA HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS. P/W VALUES WILL EQUAL OR EXCEED 2 INCHES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID DAY. BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE FROM LOCALIZED FLOODING PRODUCED BY HEAVY RAIN AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS COULD POP UP AT ANY TIME...EXPECT BEST TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM INITIATION STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN. ANY PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN. LEANED TOWARDS THE TOP-PERFORMING GFS MOS FOR TODAYS TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST PLACES AND MID 80S AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THIS TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REACH UP TO 30 TO 40 KTS PUMPING THIS WARM MOIST AIR IN. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE AROUND THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND DECENT JET DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TIME. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS TO CREATE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. JUNE MAY FINISH UP WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH. IN WILMINGTON...10.34 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS MONTH WHICH IS 2.53 INCHES UNDER THE JUNE RECORD OF 12.87" (1962). IN FLORENCE...7.89 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS MONTH WHICH IS 1.30INCHES UNDER THE RECORD OF 9.29" (1961). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BUILD WESTWARD PROVIDING INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM ABOUT 4K FT UPWARDS. BASICALLY EXPECT FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DEWPOINT TEMPS CONTINUE UP AROUND 70 AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL EXISTS. THEREFORE MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING LIFTING INTO STRATOCU...BUT EXPECT MORE LIMITED SHWR ACTIVITY THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LIGHTENING UP AS GRADIENT WEAKENS AS CENTER OF HIGH MOVES CLOSER. TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS PUSHING 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MCS TO OUR NORTH MAY SPAWN SOME CONVECTION MOVING INTO LBT AND PERHAPS FLO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. TOWARD MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS WANING A BIT HOWEVER AS THE HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF A BIT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SATURDAY...EXPECT INTERMITTENT CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY. SOME DRYING ALOFT IS INDICATED AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...HOWEVER THIS MAY JUST ALLOW MORE HEATING FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:30 AM SATURDAY...PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION WAS POSTED IN ERROR. THE CORRECT NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. A TIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MOST PLACES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN DEEP TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 7 FT HIGH. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WNA SHOWING A SLIGHT DROP IN WINDS AND SEAS SUN AFTN FOLLOWED BY A SPIKE UP BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WIDESPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CREATING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISBYS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST PUSHES WESTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY TO MAINTAIN 15 TO 20 KTS WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND BACKING OF WINDS TO THE S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WNA SHOWS SEAS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TUES MORNING...MAINTAINING 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...REK/DL MARINE...REK/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
333 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS WEST OF THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY BREAK COME THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH MORE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE OFF WHILE MOVING QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE. ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TODAY. LAPSE RATES WERE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT A COUPLE OF MAJOR TRIGGERS IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT COULD ACT TO SPARK STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. SPC HAS AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING FROM DAMAGING WINDS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING JUICY COLUMN AND POTENTIAL FOR WET-MICROBURSTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT ALSO...ESPECIALLY UNDER TRAINING STORMS. EXPECT SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER GEORGIA IS HEADED IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION AND COULD BRUSH OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. THIS WILL BE ONE OF OUR PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. MODEL CONSENSUS HANGS IT UP JUST ALONG THE COAST THOUGH...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THIS TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REACH UP TO 30 TO 40 KTS PUMPING THIS WARM MOIST AIR IN. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE AROUND THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND DECENT JET DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. OVERALL EXPECT A VERY WET PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TIME. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS TO CREATE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. JUNE MAY FINISH UP WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH. IN WILMINGTON...10.34 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS MONTH WHICH IS 2.53 INCHES UNDER THE JUNE RECORD OF 12.87" (1962). IN FLORENCE...7.89 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS MONTH WHICH IS 1.30INCHES UNDER THE RECORD OF 9.29" (1961). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BUILD WESTWARD PROVIDING INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM ABOUT 4K FT UPWARDS. BASICALLY EXPECT FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DEWPOINT TEMPS CONTINUE UP AROUND 70 AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL EXISTS. THEREFORE MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING LIFTING INTO STRATOCU...BUT EXPECT MORE LIMITED SHWR ACTIVITY THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LIGHTENING UP AS GRADIENT WEAKENS AS CENTER OF HIGH MOVES CLOSER. TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS PUSHING 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MCS TO OUR NORTH MAY SPAWN SOME CONVECTION MOVING INTO LBT AND PERHAPS FLO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. TOWARD MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS WANING A BIT HOWEVER AS THE HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF A BIT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SATURDAY...EXPECT INTERMITTENT CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY. SOME DRYING ALOFT IS INDICATED AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...HOWEVER THIS MAY JUST ALLOW MORE HEATING FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWLY WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT...WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER OUR NC WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FT DOWN SOUTH. RAISING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NC WATERS WITH THIS PACKAGE...AND EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS FOR OUR SC WATERS. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN DEEP TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS 4 TO 7 FT HIGH. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WNA SHOWING A SLIGHT DROP IN WINDS AND SEAS SUN AFTN FOLLOWED BY A SPIKE UP BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WIDESPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CREATING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISBYS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST PUSHES WESTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY TO MAINTAIN 15 TO 20 KTS WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND BACKING OF WINDS TO THE S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WNA SHOWS SEAS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TUES MORNING...MAINTAINING 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...REK/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY... THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRED AT 1000 PM. HOWEVER... ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SET UP NEW CONVECTION ALONG THE OLD W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CLT TO SW OF RDU IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY IN STANLY COUNTY WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW... CURRENTLY 2 INCHES IN 2 HOURS. THIS WILL EASILY BE EXCEEDED WITH THE TRAINING OF SEVERAL LARGE STORMS OVER THAT REGION BEFORE 1200 AM. RAINFALL RATES ARE NEARLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THESE STORMS. THIS MAY BECOME A VERY SERIOUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY IF THE CELLS REMAIN AS INTENSE AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY... WITH SEVERAL MORE TO GO... ONE OVER WESTERN STANLY... ONE OVER CABARRUS... AND THE LAST IN THE SERIES OVER CHARLOTTE. EVERYONE IN STANLY COUNTY SHOULD TAKE THIS FLOOD THREAT VERY SERIOUSLY AND HEAD ALL WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS. REMEMBER FLOODING IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE AT NIGHT. DO NOT DRIVE IN THIS SITUATION. FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE W-E OUTFLOW FROM STANLY EAST THROUGH MONTGOMERY... PORTIONS OF CHATHAM... LEE... WAKE... AND POSSIBLY DURHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM... DUE TO THE TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OLD OUTFLOW. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIR GRIP ON THIS SITUATION... WITH THE TRAINING OF STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE FAY AND RDU AREAS... BUT FOCUSED ON STANLY... MONTGOMERY... NW MOORE THROUGH 1200 AM. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WARM... DAMP... AND HUMID. WE`LL REMAIN BENEATH CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAST CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH MARKEDLY LOWER SURFACE THETA-E VALUES PUSHING INTO THE WRN FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SOME LINGERING PATCHY SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING... BUT WEAK TO ABSENT DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND TYPICALLY LOWER INSTABILITY AND LINGERING CINH THAT TIME OF DAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF ANY CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING... AND THE WRN PIEDMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH THE INJECTION OF ENERGY DOWN ITS WEST SIDE... THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG STRONGLY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO IN AND THE WRN OH VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... CAUSING A BACKING OF MID LEVEL WINDS OVER NC TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND BUILDING OF THE ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE WESTWARD TOWARD COASTAL NC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LEAD TO DISSIPATION OF THE ERN NC SURFACE TROUGH WHILE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL ZONE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PW VALUES REBOUND BACK WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC WITH AN ATTENDING RESURGENCE OF HIGHER 850 MB THETA-E. THE NAM/GFS HANDLE THEIR PRECIP FIELDS DIFFERENTLY WITH THE NAM HOLDING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR EAST AND WEST UNTIL VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS CONVECTION WITH HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR... WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE 2+ INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES SPREAD FROM THE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL NC. THE GFS`S PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A MORE REASONABLE SCENARIO... WITH MORE SCATTERED DISCRETE CELLS IN THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT (WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HENCE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LOWER) TRENDING TO NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ROXBORO TO SILER CITY TO WADESBORO (ATTENDING THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND PW). THE BACKED STEERING FLOW AND EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL BRING ABOUT A CONCERN FOR TRAINING ECHOES AND LOCALIZED URBAN AND STREET FLOODING AND SWOLLEN CREEKS STARTING SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SOUTHERLY JET TO OUR NNW. AFTER MUCH COORDINATION AND DISCUSSION... WILL NOT GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS YET... AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE IN THE ERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE MORE SANDY SOIL AND FLATTER TERRAIN RESULTS IN SLOWER RUNOFF... BUT URBAN AREAS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO SOME FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE AND CONSIDER THIS RISK AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG/EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE COVERING THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT TREMENDOUS BUT DOES IMPROVE FURTHER TO 25-35 KTS... ALTHOUGH MODEL MLCAPE VALUES ONLY PEAK AT 800-1500 J/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... SUGGESTING PERHAPS A MORE MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILE THAN WE`VE SEEN LATELY. POTENTIALLY WEAKER UPDRAFTS ESPECIALLY ALOFT COULD LOWER THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS... BUT AGAIN THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING DEPTH NEAR 4 KM) AND PW NEAR 2 INCHES (WHICH IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING. HIGHS 87-91. LOWS 68-72. -GIH THE WELL-ADVERTISED DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT WILL HAVE BECOME STRONGLY AMPLIFIED AND ESTABLISHED OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS PERIOD...BETWEEN A PAIR OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGES OVER WESTERN N. AMERICA AND THE WESTERN N. ATLANTIC. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE DIMINISHED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...THE PATTERN OF PERTURBED SW TO SSW DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL DRIVE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS...AMIDST A DEEP MOIST AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES...SUNDAY AND LIKELY THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS...TO PERHAPS 35 KTS OVER THE NW PIEDMONT...WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL BANDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS...AND TO A GREATER EXTENT LOCALIZED FLOODING OWING THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW/S. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S...AND LOWER 70S FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY... CONTINUED...IF NOT INCREASINGLY...WET. THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE CONFIGURATION ACROSS NOAM WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRESS...WITH THE TROUGH DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE MS VALLEY...THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK. THE PRESENCE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...INCLUDING CENTRAL NC...IN A PATTERN OF PERTURBED AND DEEPLY MOIST SW TO SSW FLOW ALOFT - FAVORABLE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PARTICULARLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD WILL FAVOR AN INCREASING RISK OF FLOODING WITH EACH DAY THAT PASSES...WITH OTHERWISE AN OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION-LOADED WET MICROBURST FROM LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL STORM MODES DRIVEN BY GENERALLY 20-25 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW. ASIDE FROM THE 00Z/28TH ECMWF...THE CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...INDICATES THE PATTERN RETROGRESSION WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING TO EXPAND WESTWARD SUFFICIENTLY TO LESSEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/COVERAGE - FROM NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD TO SCATTERED - OVER EASTERN NC...INCLUDING THE RAH COASTAL PLAIN...BY MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S...WITH LOWS 70 TO 75. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES BY 07Z. AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI EXPECT WE WILL AGAIN SEE SOME LOW STATUS (IFR/MVFR) DEVELOP AFTER BY AROUND 08Z OR SO... THEN LIFTING/DISSIPATING AGAIN BY AROUND 14Z OR SO. FURTHER WEST... A BIT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (KGSO/KINT). HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE MOIST... WHICH IS ALLOWING IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURE TO SCOUR OUT THE LIFR STATUS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK... EXPECT IT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z OR SO AS WELL. THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE... SO HAVE ELECTED TO START THE TAF FORECAST WITH A TEMPO GROUP... KEEPING IN MIND THAT WE MAY NEED TO INSERT A PREVAILING GROUP AND EXTEND IT OUT TO 14Z OR SO. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAYBE EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING). WILL INCLUDE VCTS IN THE KFAY AND KRWI TAF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY... WITH NO MENTION AT THIS TIME FOR THE OTHER SITES. AT KGSO AND KINT... CONFIDENCE WRT SEEING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LOWEST... THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z SUNDAY...WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS... THE RISK FOR DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS (PRIMARILY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT) AND SHALLOW EARLY-MORNING IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
134 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS WEST OF THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1:30 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW: THE LATEST HRRR RUNS AND UPSTREAM RADAR COMPOSITES SUGGEST POPS NEED TO BE LOWERED ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE STRONG UPWARD MOTION WITHIN THE MCS HAS TO BE BALANCED BY CORRESPONDING SUBSIDENT MOTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY. THERE ARE STILL THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT JUST WEST OF ANDERSON SC...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE IT COULD CONCEIVABLY AFFECT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE NORTH CAROLINA MCS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF MOST OF MY FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SCRAPING BY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ROBESON COUNTY IN A FEW HOURS. THE POPS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST ARE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND ARE FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... A ZONE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES HAS BROUGHT A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. THIS LULL SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A MODEST SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NC INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ALABAMA PUSHES EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. RADAR SHOWS A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE VA BORDER SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SOUTHERN PINES. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGRESSING MAINLY EAST AND SHOULD MOVE JUST NORTH OF LUMBERTON BETWEEN 8-9 PM...BUT COULD SCRAPE THE NORTHERN HALVES OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 9-11 PM. WHAT I AM MORE CONCERNED ABOUT IS NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT. LIKE LAST NIGHT THE HOURLY HRRR RUNS ARE NOT INITIALIZING PERFECTLY BUT MOST PAINT A STORY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING...SPREADING TO THE COAST OF BOTH SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MY TIMING ON THIS CONVECTION IS DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MY 12-HOUR POPS ARE NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT: 50-70 PERCENT... HIGHEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE CITY TO CONWAY TO WHITEVILLE AND WILMINGTON. CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL HAVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT IS BOLSTERED BY NOTING HOW LARGE FORECAST CAPE VALUES ARE ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. EVEN ACCOUNTING FOR A STABLE SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER... LIFTING A PARCEL FROM 925 MB LATE THIS EVENING OVER FLORENCE ON A RECENT RUC MODEL RUC SHOWS CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH HAD FALLEN TO 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD RISE BACK TO 2+ INCHES AS THE 850 AND 700 MB LAYER MOISTENS OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 73-75 INLAND WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. THIS IS NOT COINCIDENTALLY VERY NEAR OUR CURRENTLY OBSERVED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...JUNE IS GOING TO FINISH PRETTY MUCH HOW IT HAS BEEN ALL MONTH...WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED. IN FACT...THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN WETTER THAN MOST OF THE DAYS THIS MONTH...AND THE LOCAL CLIMATE STATIONS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED ALL TIME-MONTHLY RAINFALL RECORDS FOR JUNE BEFORE THE PERIOD COMES TO AN END. HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PATTERN AT 500MB PERSISTS AND AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE OH VLY. THIS AMPLIFICATION FORCES A STALL IN THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER...AND DRIVES THE TROUGH BACK TO THE SW...CREATING HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF -3 SD`S ACROSS THE TN VLY. WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS DISPLACED WEST OF THE CAROLINAS...THIS KEEPS DEEP SW FLOW ONGOING IN THIS AREA...AND PWATS RISE TO 2 INCHES OR MORE...AROUND 2 SD`S ABOVE NORMAL. 5H TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE CAROLINAS CREATES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AS WELL SUGGEST A VERY WET PERIOD AHEAD FOR THE WKND. 700MB TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA SHARPENS...KEEPING THE GOMEX WIDE OPEN AND HELPING TO ADVECT TREMENDOUS THETA-E RIDGING FROM 925MB THROUGH 700MB. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS LENGTHEN AND POINT RIGHT INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH STREAMLINES SUGGESTING MORE AND MORE OF THAT GULF TAP. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...200MB JETTING INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHEAST ALIGNING BENEATH THE RRQ WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO HELP DRIVE LIFT OVER THE AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE EXTREME...MLCAPE OF 800-1200 J/KG WITH LI`S AROUND -4...AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE THANKS TO 13000-14000 FT OF WARM CLOUD DEPTH...ENOUGH LIFT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS EVEN THOUGH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT BOTH DAYS. SO THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AN EXTENDED WET PERIOD...AND WPC HAS 1-3" OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS A REGION THAT HAS SEEN 150-300% OF NORMAL RAINFALL THE PAST TWO WEEKS...SO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD OFF ON ANY AREAL FLOOD WATCHES SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD...MEANING CWA-BASIN RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCHES AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DEVELOPS IN TIME. ONE FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE UPCOMING RAINFALL. THE CLIMATE STATIONS OF FLORENCE, SC AND WILMINGTON, NC ARE BOTH APPROACHING MONTHLY RECORDS FOR JUNE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE RECORDS ARE ECLIPSED BEFORE JULY BEGINS: AT WILMINGTON...10.34" HAS FALLEN SO FAR...2.53" BEHIND THE JUNE RECORD OF 12.87" (1962). AT FLORENCE...7.89" HAS FALLEN THIS MONTH...1.30" BEHIND THE RECORD OF 9.29" (1961). SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM...BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH AFTNS...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY WITHIN SHOWERS/TSTMS. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL FALL TO 70 OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH MEANS A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WPC HAS LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH LOWER VALUES FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE RIVER OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PATTERN WITH SLIGHT RIDGING BUILDING IN WHICH WARRANTS A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN POPS. WITH THE PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STABLE WITH HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE FOR THE SAME REASON. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MCS TO OUR NORTH MAY SPAWN SOME CONVECTION MOVING INTO LBT AND PERHAPS FLO AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. TOWARD MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS WANING A BIT HOWEVER AS THE HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF A BIT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SATURDAY...EXPECT INTERMITTENT CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY. SOME DRYING ALOFT IS INDICATED AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...HOWEVER THIS MAY JUST ALLOW MORE HEATING FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:30 AM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE IS HAVING LIMITED SUCCESS PUSHING WESTWARD INTO WHAT HAS BECOME (FOR THE SEASON) A VERY STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. BAROMETRIC PRESSURES ARE SURPRISINGLY LOW FOR LATE JUNE...29.67 INCHES HERE IN WILMINGTON AS I TYPE. THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH A HEALTHY FLOW OF SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS WIND HAS BUILT SEAS TO 7 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...6 FT AT THE NEW WILMINGTON "HARBOR" BUOY JUST SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER...AND 5 FT AT THE OCEAN CREST PIER WAVE GAUGE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WAS TO INCREASE NEARSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE REPORT FROM THE OCEAN CREST PIER REPORT. SHOWERS JUST INLAND FROM GEORGETOWN DEVELOPED A COUPLE HOURS AGO ALONG THE SEABREEZE...AND THESE SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME INTO NEXT WEEK. LARGE BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLED INLAND...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS DRIVES SW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS SATURDAY...AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THESE WINDS...AND 4-7 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD TSTMS BOTH DAYS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAINFALL...CAUSING SEVERELY RESTRICTED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...STEADY STATE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL COMMUNITY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS PROBABLY CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE. PATTERN WEAKENS EVER SO SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY WHICH TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS 3-5 FEET MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO A SCEC HEADLINE IS POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS DROP TO 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK AVIATION...REK/DL MARINE...REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1213 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN ISOLATED SHOWER JUST SOUTH OF KJMS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WORKING SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. THE FIRST IS NEAR BRANDON MANITOBA...WITH THE SECOND JUST WEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG. NAM/GFS/HRRR ALL GENERATE SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO INCREASE BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE FAR NORTH AND PROGRESS SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 A MOSAIC OF AREA RADARS SHOWS MUCH OF THE SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS PER THE 29.00Z NAM...BUT THOSE CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WITH MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE STORMS ARE IN THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY (1000 J/KG) WHILE INSTABILITY QUICKLY DECREASES IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SHOWS THE INSTABILITY DECREASING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS QUICKLY DECREASING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW SHOWERS INDICATED ALONG LAKE SAKAKAWEA. BEST CAPE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE BEST SHEAR IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. 28 JUNE 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AT BISMARCK AND ESPECIALLY MINOT AND JAMESTOWN WITH ONLY A VERY THIN MOISTURE LAYER. WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE THAN A SHOWER. CAPE VALUES ARE LIMITED BUT GOOD SPEED SHEAR EXISTS...WITH 50 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR AND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS WILL BE BASED ON LATEST FRAMES. ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER. SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY. THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACTS TO SHARPEN THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER TEMPERATURE TO ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA. AND FINALLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING ALOFT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM BEGINS AS STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW...WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY - WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER WITH SOME INSTABILITY ARISING FROM EITHER A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OR DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE GFS AND EC ADVERTISE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. THUS INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS WITH A PATTERN CHANGE POSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE/TROUGH STRUCTURE BREAKS DOWN. KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. HOWEVER KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WILL BE LOCATED IN AN AREA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED A VCSH AND WILL WATCH THE RADAR FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS MENTIONING ANYTHING PREDOMINANT. SCT/BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT WILL BE THE RULE AT THE ABOVE MENTIONED AERODROMES...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR KISN/KDIK. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
323 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN GR LAKES...WITH ANY NUMBER OF MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. VIZ SHOTS SHOW A COUPLE OF AREAS OF ENHANCED CU. THE FIRST IS WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROF FROM NEAR BGM WSW INTO NW PA. THE OTHER IS ARCING UP OUT OF SW PA INTO THE LAURELS...AND SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TONGUE OF HIGHER CAPE THAT EXTENDS OUT OF OHIO INTO CENTRAL PA. RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WHICH ARE SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR YET ANOTHER DAY OF POP-UP CONVECTION AS SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAP SHOWS BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30KT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DROP OUT OF SOME OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED-STRONGER STORMS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT...AND QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 02-04Z. THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT...WILL MEAN WINDS BECOME NEAR CALM WITH INTERVALS OF CLEARING DEVELOPING. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD DROP TO UNDER A MILE FOR A TIME AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65F THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SE PENN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE RELATIVE RESPITE FROM THE HIGH HUMIDITY WE HAVE BEEN ENJOYING WILL FADE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES...ALLOWING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR TO BEGIN MAKING INROADS BACK OVER THE FCST AREA. ONCE AGAIN IT SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERALL COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR COULD EASILY OCCUR WITHIN THE SLOW MOVING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER BASIN AVERAGE AMTS SHOULD BE 0.50 INCH OR LESS. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW...TO PERHAPS SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WORK WESTWARD BY LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CUT DOWN THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO TUE. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN. HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. MAIN CHANGE TO PACKAGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME...AND TEMPS. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP UNDER THE STRONG LATE JUNE SUNSHINE...BUT AS OF 2PM STILL NO LIGHTNING OVER MY FCST AREA. MOST SITES ARE VFR AND WILL REMAIN SO EXCEPT WHILE BEING AFFECTED BY THE POP UP CONVECTION THAT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE PM HOURS...AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT NIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUN-THU...VFR WITH AREAS OF LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN GR LAKES...WITH ANY NUMBER OF MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. VIZ SHOTS SHOW A COUPLE OF AREAS OF ENHANCED CU. THE FIRST IS WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROF FROM NEAR BGM WSW INTO NW PA. THE OTHER IS ARCING UP OUT OF SW PA INTO THE LAURELS...AND SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TONGUE OF HIGHER CAPE THAT EXTENDS OUT OF OHIO INTO CENTRAL PA. RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AREAS...WHICH ARE SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR YET ANOTHER DAY OF POP-UP CONVECTION AS SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAP SHOWS BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30KT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DROP OUT OF SOME OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED-STRONGER STORMS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT...AND QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 02-04Z. THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT...WILL MEAN WINDS BECOME NEAR CALM WITH INTERVALS OF CLEARING DEVELOPING. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD DROP TO UNDER A MILE FOR A TIME AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65F THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SE PENN. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... THE RELATIVE RESPITE FROM THE HIGH HUMIDITY WE HAVE BEEN ENJOYING WILL FADE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES...ALLOWING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR TO BEGIN MAKING INROADS BACK OVER THE FCST AREA. ONCE AGAIN IT SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERALL COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR COULD EASILY OCCUR WITHIN THE SLOW MOVING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER BASIN AVERAGE AMTS SHOULD BE 0.50 INCH OR LESS. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW...TO PERHAPS SVRL DEG F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A TREND TOWARD A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWING THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS FROM THE SHORT TERM TO START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS STILL MANUFACTURED OUT OF THE DEPARTMENT OF REDUNDANCY DEPARTMENT - WITH CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ON A DAILY BASIS. THERE IS ALSO TRENDING NOTED WITH THE WRN ATLC/BERMUDA UPPER RIDGE TOWARD A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SOLUTION OR AT LEAST A GREATER RETROGRESSION WITH TIME. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN ATM RIVER/ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEING DRAWN NWD BTWN THE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE MS VLY AND THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHING WWD FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING FORECAST AS THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF ORGANIZED MOD-HVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION. BY F144 OR 00Z FRI 7/5...THE OPRN GFS/CMC/EC AND GEFS MEAN SHOW AN AVG OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL PA WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE. THE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED AT SHORTER RANGES...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO POTENTIAL FLOODING. THEREFORE WE FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP UNDER THE STRONG LATE JUNE SUNSHINE...BUT AS OF 2PM STILL NO LIGHTNING OVER MY FCST AREA. MOST SITES ARE VFR AND WILL REMAIN SO EXCEPT WHILE BEING AFFECTED BY THE POP UP CONVECTION THAT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE PM HOURS...AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT NIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUN-THU...VFR WITH AREAS OF LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
107 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .UPDATE... 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA READY TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS IS THE WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND BRING ISO/WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A SUBTLE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HELP TO AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW AND ONLY MAX OUT AROUND 500 TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. MOST ALL HI RES MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS BY AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES THEM AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY AND EVEN A TAD FURTHER WEST. EXPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RATHER QUITE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY WITH PRECIP CHANCES NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATER ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CERTAINLY LESS THAN CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE LATEST INSTALLMENT OF 00Z SOLUTIONS HAS THE MAMMOTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST FLATTENING OUT BY THURSDAY...WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES AND EMBEDDED S/W`S MOVING SWIFTLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DOUBTLESS...WHEN THE ALLBLEND POPS GET BOILED DOWN...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS POINT...TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE COOLER EARLIER ON IN THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WAA/WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS SURFACE HEATING CU DEVELOPING QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOWN ON RADAR. EXPECT THE CU TO BE LOW VFR AND GO FROM SCT-BKN AT TIMES AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOME VICINITY SHOWERS AT ABR AND ATY. ABR AND ATY MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A P6SM -SHRA AT THE STATION. OTHERWISE...THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOHR SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...DORN AVIATION...MOHR WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1025 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .UPDATE... THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGE MADE WAS TO PUSH BACK THE MENTION OF SHOWERS A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. OTHERWISE...REFRESHED THE GRIDS WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT OUT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA READY TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS IS THE WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND BRING ISO/WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A SUBTLE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HELP TO AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW AND ONLY MAX OUT AROUND 500 TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. MOST ALL HI RES MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS BY AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES THEM AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY AND EVEN A TAD FURTHER WEST. EXPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RATHER QUITE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY WITH PRECIP CHANCES NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATER ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CERTAINLY LESS THAN CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE LATEST INSTALLMENT OF 00Z SOLUTIONS HAS THE MAMMOTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST FLATTENING OUT BY THURSDAY...WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES AND EMBEDDED S/W`S MOVING SWIFTLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DOUBTLESS...WHEN THE ALLBLEND POPS GET BOILED DOWN...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS POINT...TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE COOLER EARLIER ON IN THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WAA/WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL AGAIN PICK UP BY MID DAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD EFFECT KATY/KABR OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION ACTUALLY LUMBERING ACROSS TERMINAL AIRSPACE REMAINS LOW AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SERR SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...DORN AVIATION...DORN WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&& .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA READY TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS IS THE WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND BRING ISO/WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A SUBTLE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HELP TO AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW AND ONLY MAX OUT AROUND 500 TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. MOST ALL HI RES MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS BY AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES THEM AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY AND EVEN A TAD FURTHER WEST. EXPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RATHER QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY WITH PRECIP CHANCES NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATER ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CERTAINLY LESS THAN CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE LATEST INSTALLMENT OF 00Z SOLUTIONS HAS THE MAMMOTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST FLATTENING OUT BY THURSDAY...WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES AND EMBEDDED S/W`S MOVING SWIFTLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DOUBTLESS...WHEN THE ALLBLEND POPS GET BOILED DOWN...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS POINT...TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE COOLER EARLIER ON IN THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WAA/WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL AGAIN PICK UP BY MID DAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD EFFECT KATY/KABR OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION ACTUALLY LUMBERING ACROSS TERMINAL AIRSPACE REMAINS LOW AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DORN SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...DORN AVIATION...DORN WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
407 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA READY TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS IS THE WAVE THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND BRING ISO/WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A SUBTLE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HELP TO AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES ARE VERY LOW AND ONLY MAX OUT AROUND 500 TO 600 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. MOST ALL HI RES MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS BY AROUND 18Z AND PUSHES THEM AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY AND EVEN A TAD FURTHER WEST. EXPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS RATHER QUITE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY WITH PRECIP CHANCES NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATER ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CERTAINLY LESS THAN CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE LATEST INSTALLMENT OF 00Z SOLUTIONS HAS THE MAMMOTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST FLATTENING OUT BY THURSDAY...WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES AND EMBEDDED S/W`S MOVING SWIFTLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DOUBTLESS...WHEN THE ALLBLEND POPS GET BOILED DOWN...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS POINT...TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE COOLER EARLIER ON IN THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WAA/WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL AGAIN PICK UP BY MID DAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD EFFECT KATY/KABR DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER PROBABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...DORN AVIATION...DORN WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
900 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013 .EVENING UPDATE... PESKY UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION HAS CAUSED EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION...CAUSING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EVEN SOME MINOR FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS IN PUTNAM COUNTY WITH ONE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS WANED...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS EAST OF 65 THROUGH ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT...THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS THEREAFTER FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/ UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF`S. AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SCATTERED CELLS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE MID STATE. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER DARK, SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH REMARKS (TEMPO AT CSV) THROUGH 02Z. LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AT CSV. AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013 .UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF`S. && .AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SCATTERED CELLS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE MID STATE. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER DARK, SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH REMARKS (TEMPO AT CSV) THROUGH 02Z. LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AT CSV. AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED FORECAST QUANDARIES...ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT POSITION APPROACHING/INTO STATE AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD MOVEMENT...ASSOCIATED SHWR/TSTM CHANCES...TEMPS. 12Z SUN GFS EXPECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF STATE BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN BEGINNING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NW. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN TO BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU TUE NIGHT. LATEST EURO AND NAM SIMILAR IN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT AND POSITIONS WITH SUBTLETIES DIFFERENCES HERE AND THERE BETWEEN THEM AND THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION. AGAIN...ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT POSITION AND WHAT PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE IT PLACES FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENTS PER SLY FLOW SFC/ALOFT WILL BE THE OVERALL KEY AGAIN HERE. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE WILL BE ON MON AFTERNOON WHEN NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE EVENING HRS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/CHANCE SHWRS PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN OF EVENING CHANCE TSTMS FOR MON AND TUE NIGHTS...TO A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT... AS POSSIBLE DIURNAL EFFECTS DIMINISH. HOWEVER...WITH THIS EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVEMENT...EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO BE THE GENERAL TREND TONIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THRU TUE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS ALSO TRENDING GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES ALSO. AS LIKE YESTERDAY ALSO...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHWR/TSTM RESULTING IN A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR...BUT AM CONTINUING TO NOT ANTICIPATE AT THIS TIME ANY OVERALL POTENTIAL OF ANY TYPE OF A FLOODING EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES PRESENTLY CONTINUE TO BE RATHER HIGH...BUT GENERALLY HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...AND AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST. AS FOR WED THRU SUN...AS LIKE AROUND THIS TIME YESTERDAY...BERMUDA BASED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AS THIS TIME PERIOD PROGRESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLY/SWLY SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THIS PERIOD ALSO...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUANCE OF A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH ACROSS THE MID STATE. BUT RELIEF DOES LOOK TO BE IN SIGHT FOR SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON AS RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. AS LIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY ALSO...AND STILL DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL ALL THE TIME ACROSS THE MID STATE PER THIS PATTERN THRU THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT CONTINUE ALSO TO AT LEAST THINK THAT THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISO/SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN PTCLDY TO MOCLDY SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS... AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLY NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE ANTICIPATED VARIABILITY IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL WITH LOWS GENERALLY AROUND SEASONABLY NORMAL VALUES. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1137 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO MOVE TO THE EAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DUE TO THE UPPER LOW BEING OUT OF THE NORTH. TOMORROW WILL BE A DIFFERENT CASE. UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS SE COLORADO OR EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES. AS SUCH HAVE INSERTED VCTS INTO THE PREVAILING GROUPS STARTING 2-3Z. ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 14KTS FROM A SOUTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION THROUGH THIS TAF. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/ UPDATE... TSTMS HAVE REMAINED CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND ERN CO THIS EVENING AS STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS NWRN ZONES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. ANDRADE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/ SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HEAT TO THE WESTERN CONUS...THE PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE MEANS THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE A SHIFT TOWARD WETTER AND COOLER WX CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS SLID INTO SOUTHERN TX. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTED IN COOLER CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH ITS STILL TOASTY WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S. CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM AND CO WHICH IS TYPICAL IN THIS TYPE OF WX PATTERN. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA /PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE VALUES/ BULK SHEAR IS WEAK SO IF ANY STORMS DO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THEY WILL NOT BE ORGANIZED. HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES IMPROVE SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION RETROGRADES INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGES A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO TRANSITION MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD FAVOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS. STORMS MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED AS WELL OWING TO LARGER VALUES OF CAPE AND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS KEPT THE AREA OUT OF A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MECHANISM...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LONG TERM... THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN UNDER STOUT NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW ALTHOUGH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE WEEK...PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INDEPENDENCE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT DIVERGED TOO MUCH FROM THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE OPTED TO NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD. BESIDES THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S EXPECTED AREA WIDE. THIS WILL BE A NICE CONTRAST TO THE HOT WEEK WE`VE HAD. CLK FIRE WEATHER... NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND 20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY STAYING UNDER 15 MPH. CLK && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 14/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1106 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 .UPDATE... TSTMS HAVE REMAINED CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND ERN CO THIS EVENING AS STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS NWRN ZONES. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. ANDRADE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/ AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE RISK OF CONVECTION IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL BOTH THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING REMAIN TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO PREVAILING GROUPS AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION OVER NEW MEXICO PERSISTING INTO THE PANHANDLES. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND WILL MAKE UPDATES AS NEEDED. TOMORROWS CHANCES LOOK HIGHER THAN TODAYS BUT ARE AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/ SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HEAT TO THE WESTERN CONUS...THE PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE MEANS THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE A SHIFT TOWARD WETTER AND COOLER WX CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS SLID INTO SOUTHERN TX. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTED IN COOLER CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH ITS STILL TOASTY WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S. CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM AND CO WHICH IS TYPICAL IN THIS TYPE OF WX PATTERN. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA /PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE VALUES/ BULK SHEAR IS WEAK SO IF ANY STORMS DO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THEY WILL NOT BE ORGANIZED. HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES IMPROVE SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION RETROGRADES INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGES A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO TRANSITION MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD FAVOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS. STORMS MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED AS WELL OWING TO LARGER VALUES OF CAPE AND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS KEPT THE AREA OUT OF A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MECHANISM...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LONG TERM... THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN UNDER STOUT NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW ALTHOUGH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE WEEK...PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INDEPENDENCE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT DIVERGED TOO MUCH FROM THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE OPTED TO NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD. BESIDES THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S EXPECTED AREA WIDE. THIS WILL BE A NICE CONTRAST TO THE HOT WEEK WE`VE HAD. CLK FIRE WEATHER... NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND 20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY STAYING UNDER 15 MPH. CLK && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1030 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures across the Inland Northwest will warm over the weekend and reach very hot temperatures early next week. A chance for thunderstorms will be possible across the region on Saturday with a small chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday over the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be some of the hottest we have seen in several years. Many places will experience triple digit heat early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Evening update: We have continued the threat for thunderstorms along the Cascade Crest for the next few hours. As of 830PM...radar indicated two cells tracking along the western fringes of the Cascade Crest just west of the northern Chelan County line. RUC13 indicated this area is carrying over a 1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE with very little CIN. This should be short-lived with sunset nearing and the lift along the front a few hours away but we will continue to monitor closely for future updates. Otherwise...Very little to update now through 5AM for most locations as mostly clear skies and light winds dominate. Did adjust overnight lows to trend warmer then last night as all ASOS stations currently running 5-10 degrees warmer then yesterday at this time. We continue to monitor the thunderstorm potential arriving early Saturday and continuing through the evening hours. Now that we have 3 runs of the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model and the 00z NAM...confidence continues to increase that a cluster of showers and thunderstorms will spring to life around 12z (5AM) between southern Chelan County...east toward the Tri-Cities...and Blue Mtns. This cluster will track northward impacting portions of the Columbia Basin...East Slopes...Waterville Plateau...Palouse...and West Plains between 12-18z (5AM- 11AM)...arriving in the Spokane Area around 8AM. It will not be a continuous line from Chelan county to the Palouse so there is still some uncertainty exactly which locations will be passed over. The HRRR has been consistent with a cluster between Pendleton and Tri- Cities...jogging N/NE into the Palouse...Columbia Basin...and Spokane Area between 12-16z while isolated cells develop in the vicinity of the East Slopes/Wenatchee Area/Waterville Plateau. The 00Z NAM places the cluster over western reaches of the Basin, Waterville Plateau, and East Slopes with isolated cells in the vicinity of the Blues and Palouse which also track north toward Spokane-CDA. Utilizing a blend of the both...we have increased PoPs slightly into the 20-40% range and will like to see a few more runs of the HRRR and 00z GFS before adjusted further. Once the front pushes through early Saturday afternoon and the first round of convection translates through the region, the forecast becomes quite challenging. Given high dewpoints, potential for more rainfall Saturday morning and afternoon highs in the 80`s to lower 90`s, NAM/GFS indicate an impressive amount of surface based CAPE under a strong CIN layer and there lies the question, can we break through the CIN. If so, there is the potential for rapid convection and strong thunderstorms. The higher terrain of the Idaho Panhandle and mountains of northern WA may be enough to overcome the CIN but there is little evidence this will occur in the Basin and lowlands. One exception could be gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms in the mountains...descending into the lowlands and creating boundaries to push through the CIN layer. This is almost impossible to predict this far out and carrying 20% region-wide was a good idea from the previous forecast. /sb && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Moisture will begin trickling into the region after 12z arnd the western periphery of a strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Great Basin. This will interact with a weak frontal boundary tracking east frm the coastal waters and bring the potential for elevated showers and thunderstorms across most terminals btwn 12z-18z. A few stronger storms will be possible Saturday aftn with peak heating with northern and eastern mountains carrying the highest threat. Due to strong CIN...we have backed off on vcts frm the TAF sites however if outflow winds from the mountains were to spread into the Basin and anything breaks through the cin, it will intensify rapidly. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 63 89 65 91 68 100 / 10 40 20 10 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 60 89 64 90 65 99 / 10 30 20 10 0 0 Pullman 61 88 62 90 65 100 / 20 30 20 10 10 10 Lewiston 68 95 69 98 69 104 / 20 30 20 10 10 10 Colville 58 92 61 93 63 102 / 10 30 20 10 0 0 Sandpoint 54 89 60 89 60 95 / 0 30 30 10 0 0 Kellogg 61 88 63 88 64 96 / 10 30 30 10 0 10 Moses Lake 66 93 67 97 68 103 / 20 30 10 0 0 10 Wenatchee 68 92 68 96 72 101 / 20 30 10 0 0 0 Omak 66 91 64 96 67 102 / 10 30 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. WA...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties- Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands- Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
858 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures across the Inland Northwest will warm over the weekend and reach very hot temperatures early next week. A chance for thunderstorms will be possible across the region on Saturday with a small chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday over the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be some of the hottest we have seen in several years. Many places will experience triple digit heat early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Evening update: We have continued the threat for thunderstorms along the Cascade Crest for the next few hours. As of 830PM...radar indicated two cells tracking along the western fringes of the Cascade Crest just west of the northern Chelan County line. RUC13 indicated this area is carrying over a 1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE with very little CIN. This should be short-lived with sunset nearing and the lift along the front a few hours away but we will continue to monitor closely for future updates. Otherwise...Very little to update now through 5AM for most locations as mostly clear skies and light winds dominate. Did adjust overnight lows to trend warmer then last night as all ASOS stations currently running 5-10 degrees warmer then yesterday at this time. We continue to monitor the thunderstorm potential arriving early Saturday and continuing through the evening hours. Now that we have 3 runs of the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model and the 00z NAM...confidence continues to increase that a cluster of showers and thunderstorms will spring to life around 12z (5AM) between southern Chelan County...east toward the Tri-Cities...and Blue Mtns. This cluster will track northward impacting portions of the Columbia Basin...East Slopes...Waterville Plateau...Palouse...and West Plains between 12-18z (5AM- 11AM)...arriving in the Spokane Area around 8AM. It will not be a continuous line from Chelan county to the Palouse so there is still some uncertainty exactly which locations will be passed over. The HRRR has been consistent with a cluster between Pendleton and Tri- Cities...jogging N/NE into the Palouse...Columbia Basin...and Spokane Area between 12-16z while isolated cells develop in the vicinity of the East Slopes/Wenatchee Area/Waterville Plateau. The 00Z NAM places the cluster over western reaches of the Basin, Waterville Plateau, and East Slopes with isolated cells in the vicinity of the Blues and Palouse which also track north toward Spokane-CDA. Utilizing a blend of the both...we have increased PoPs slightly into the 20-40% range and will like to see a few more runs of the HRRR and 00z GFS before adjusted further. Once the front pushes through early Saturday afternoon and the first round of convection translates through the region, the forecast becomes quite challenging. Given high dewpoints, potential for more rainfall Saturday morning and afternoon highs in the 80`s to lower 90`s, NAM/GFS indicate an impressive amount of surface based CAPE under a strong CIN layer and there lies the question, can we break through the CIN. If so, there is the potential for rapid convection and strong thunderstorms. The higher terrain of the Idaho Panhandle and mountains of northern WA may be enough to overcome the CIN but there is little evidence this will occur in the Basin and lowlands. One exception could be gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms in the mountains...descending into the lowlands and creating boundaries to push through the CIN layer. This is almost impossible to predict this far out and carrying 20% region-wide was a good idea from the previous forecast. /sb && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Moisture will begin trickling into the region after 12z arnd the western periphery of a strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Great Basin. This will interact with a weak frontal boundary tracking east frm the coastal waters and bring the potential for elevated showers and thunderstorms across most terminals btwn 12z-18z with continued uncertainty with the coverage. A few stronger storms will be possible Saturday aftn with peak heating with locations east of line from frm KPUW-KCQV carrying the highest threat. Confidence is even lower regarding placement and strength of these storms given presence of clouds from morning convection and really weak forcing contributing to development. Needless to say...the air mass will be quite unstable and anything that breaks the cap will become strong quite quickly. If this occurs, it expected to be on an isolated basis with areas of southeastern WA and the ID Panhandle most favored attm. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 63 89 65 91 68 100 / 10 40 20 10 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 60 89 64 90 65 99 / 10 30 20 10 0 0 Pullman 61 88 62 90 65 100 / 20 30 20 10 10 10 Lewiston 68 95 69 98 69 104 / 20 30 20 10 10 10 Colville 58 92 61 93 63 102 / 10 30 20 10 0 0 Sandpoint 54 89 60 89 60 95 / 0 30 30 10 0 0 Kellogg 61 88 63 88 64 96 / 10 30 30 10 0 10 Moses Lake 66 93 67 97 68 103 / 20 30 10 0 0 10 Wenatchee 68 92 68 96 72 101 / 20 30 10 0 0 0 Omak 66 91 64 96 67 102 / 10 30 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. WA...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties- Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands- Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
310 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 DATA ANALYSIS OF LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING WATER VAPOR/IR/VISIBLE SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. AS A RESULT OF THE COOLER AIR ALOFT/SHOWER ACTIVITY...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BEING HELD DOWN IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOOK FOR THE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ROTATING SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE FILLING IN BEHIND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CARRIED ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTH OF I-90...THEN DIMINISHING COMPLETELY BY 9-10 PM. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI...TOT HE LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE LOWER LYING CRANBERRY BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH RANGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. OTHER THAN A FEW CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY IN DAYTIME HEATING...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY/PLEASANT HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE. SURFACE/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE. CLEAR/COOL CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN LOWER LYING/RIVER VALLEYS. WILL PUT A MENTION OF PATCHY IN FOG FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLY BEING MORE WIDESPREAD/DENSE. MITIGATING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE A GOOD DRYING DAY SUNDAY AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST STARTS RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD US ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BREAKING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH THE LACK OF ANY OBVIOUS SURFACE/MID-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS...THINKING THAT THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF A LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE INFLUENCE COMBINED WITH THE STEEPENING LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH. FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM ALL SHOW THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORMING A CLOSED LOW AND CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. BASED ON THIS SIGNAL...INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TUESDAY FOR MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 TUESDAY...AND THEN SHOWERS CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN SHOW THE CLOSED LOW OPENING/FILLING AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LINGERING COOL/CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERAL TROUGHINESS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR CONTINUED SMALL-END CHANCES OF MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING. THE 29.15Z RAP SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE THE LAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SHOWERS WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. HAVE CARRIED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BOTH SITES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS THEN GOING BACK UP TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON SO CARRIED A VCSH UNTIL 00Z. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE SUBSIDENT ZONE BEHIND THE WAVE AND THIS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. MOVED UP THE TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONCERNED THIS MAY STILL BE TOO SLOW. WITH THE RECENT MOISTURE AND THE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. THE 29.12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DOES SHOW SURFACE SATURATION OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT BUT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KNOTS AND TO CREATE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS AND A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1154 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN...WITH ANOTHER...WEAKER FEATURE SPINNING OVER THE UP OF MICH. CURRENT SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MN SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THAT REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD TODAY...WHILE THE UP MICH SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS HINT A SFC TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE. MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ARE SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/NAM FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY FROM THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AGAIN POINT TO SKINNY CAPE...SO CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WOULD BE RELATIVELY SUBDUED...LIMITING A SEVERE THREAT. LITTLE IF ANY 0-6 KM SHEAR TOO. EXPECTING ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...SHIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH SOME ENHANCED GUSTINESS AROUND THE STORMS. BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY...BUT NOT THE KIND THAT WOULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OR FURTHER FLOODING PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-90 BY EARLY EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH HOLDS ACROSS THE U.S. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK...IN A QUASI-REX BLOCK FORMATION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK. THE GFS BUILDS MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG SUN-FRI...BUT LITTLE IF ANY WIND SHEAR. STILL...SUGGESTIVE OF A CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IF A FOCUS CAN BE FOUND. DON/T SEE ANY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO WORK WITH...BUT THERE COULD BE BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT SPIN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH HOVERS OVER THE REGION. THE GFS PRODUCES LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA EVERY DAY...BUT IT DOESN/T SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY OR UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. RATHER...IT LOOKS MORE IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...AUTO-CONVECTING. THE ECMWF STAYS DRY...EXCEPT IN THE CASES WHEN IT LATCHES ONTO A DISTINCTIVE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AS IT DOES ON WED. CONFIDENCE LOW ON RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT IF ANY TIME WAS FAVORED...IT WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. PROBABLY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES AT THIS TIME. WILL LIKELY LEAN ON A DRY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WITH SMALL POPS DURING THE DAY...UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE SOURCE FOR FORCING CAN BE EVIDENCED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013 SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING. THE 29.15Z RAP SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE THE LAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SHOWERS WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. HAVE CARRIED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BOTH SITES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS THEN GOING BACK UP TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON SO CARRIED A VCSH UNTIL 00Z. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE SUBSIDENT ZONE BEHIND THE WAVE AND THIS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. MOVED UP THE TIMING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONCERNED THIS MAY STILL BE TOO SLOW. WITH THE RECENT MOISTURE AND THE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. THE 29.12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DOES SHOW SURFACE SATURATION OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT BUT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 KNOTS AND TO CREATE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS AND A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1125 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 839 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE MAIN BAND EXTENDING ALONG A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL NOT SHIFT MUCH TONIGHT AS A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BLOCK ANY MOVEMENT WEST. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DECREASING...SO EXPECT THAT THE THUNDER CHANCES WILL GREATLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE THIS DECREASING INSTABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE MID LEVEL ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH TO GO ALONG WITH ANY REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER BY EARLIER CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS...HAVE UPPED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE THIS LIFT WILL SIT OVER TONIGHT...BUT DID CONTINUE THE DIMINISHING COVERAGE TREND. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE LAKE HURON/EERIE REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO NORTHERN WI/MN. RAP ANALYZING SEVERAL EMBEDDED POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH/VORTICITY...COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 65-70 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE NEAR 80 ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT FEEL LIKE MORE OF AN EARLY AUTUMN DAY ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOWS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THUS...ANOTHER DAY OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO OCCUR AS 0-1KM ML MUCAPE PERKS UP INTO THE 400-1000J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON. BAY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECTING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE CONFINED SOUTH MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94 AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO IA/IL AND RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON TEMPERATURES TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE 70-75 RANGE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MN. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN BE NOTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 PATTERN REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHILE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGIONS. THIS KEEPS THE AREA DRY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. IT APPEARS THE GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY SHOW THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FILLING/LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/EASTERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE LAMINAR/HIGH ZONAL ACROSS CANADA. SO...LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY DRY AND BECOMING WARMER. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY... WARMING INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND WHETHER ANY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD BAND NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH IT MORE LIKELY TO HIT RST THAN LSE. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WHEN IT APPEARS THAT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. AFTER THIS...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK THIS MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN AND MORE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE VFR THOUGH SOME BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR OR IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBACH SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
529 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MAINE...SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WILL LIFT NNEWD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDING AND IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NJ OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WILL MEAN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN RECENTLY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER THE AREA AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND SOME WEAK LIFTING WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH MONDAY. THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO MONDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE DRYING PROFILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP. 85H TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL AVERAGE 16 TO 18 DEG C. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL FRI INTO SAT AS SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION THOUGH STILL APPEARS TO BE SCT IN NATURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER OR DYNAMICS TO RELY ON. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF PCPN. ONE AREA OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...EXPECT TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO THE EVENING. MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TSTM ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT SITES WEST OF NYC...THOUGH A STRAY TSTM COULD MAKE IT INTO THE CITY TERMINALS. EXPECTING JUST SHRA OVER LI/CT SITES. PSBL PCPN AGAIN THIS COMING NIGHT BUT TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE. CIGS AND VIS WILL GO UP AND DOWN THE REST OF TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING GENERALLY IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. FOR THE DAY...CURRENTLY THINKING MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE HEAVIER PCPN MAY BRING IN IFR OR LOWER. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER 1-2 HOURS MORE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TSTMS TODAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY NGT-FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS. IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG. && .MARINE... DENSE FOG OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY. PERSISTENT S SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. A GRADUALLY VEERING SLY FLOW TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO FALL BELOW 5 FT BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND. && .HYDROLOGY... CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...AND 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES...SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY APPROACH AND EXCEED BANKFULL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>070. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-338-340-345-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/DW NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...SEARS MARINE...JP/DW HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
511 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MAINE...SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WILL LIFT NNEWD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDING AND IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NJ OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WILL MEAN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN RECENTLY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER THE AREA AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND SOME WEAK LIFTING WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH MONDAY. THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO MONDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE DRYING PROFILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP. 85H TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL AVERAGE 16 TO 18 DEG C. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL FRI INTO SAT AS SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION THOUGH STILL APPEARS TO BE SCT IN NATURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER OR DYNAMICS TO RELY ON. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPOTTY PRECIPITATION. ONE AREA OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...EXPECT TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO THE EVENING. MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MID DAY...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINS. COULD SEE PCPN MOVE IN 1-2 HOURS SOONER. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION ONCE A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING OF OCCURRENCE. CIGS AND VIS WILL GO UP AND DOWN THE REST OF TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING GENERALLY IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. FOR THE DAY...CURRENTLY THINKING MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE HEAVIER PCPN MAY BRING IN IFR OR LOWER. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY NGT-FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS. IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG. && .MARINE... DENSE FOG OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY. PERSISTENT S SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. A GRADUALLY VEERING SLY FLOW TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO FALL BELOW 5 FT BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND. && .HYDROLOGY... CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...AND 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES...SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY APPROACH AND EXCEED BANKFULL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>070. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-338-340-345-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/DW NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...SEARS MARINE...JP/DW HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT MON JUL 01 2013 ...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY... .SYNOPSIS... 09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NATION IS UNDER THE TROUGHING PORTION OF THIS PATTERN PROVIDING A SETUP FOR THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MS VALLEY AND EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS AXIS IS SUPPLYING OUR REGION WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW VALUES OVER 2"). OUR POSITION TO THE EAST OF THIS UNUSUALLY DEEP SUMMER TROUGH ALSO IS PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING FOR LIFT AND WITHIN THE DIVERGENT RRQ OF UPPER JET ENERGY ALIGNED DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. KEEPING CONVECTION FROM FIRING THIS TIME OF YEAR IN FLORIDA IS HARD ENOUGH WITHOUT ADDING IN THE UNSEASONABLE SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...A WET FORECAST INCLUDING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. OUR REGION CONTINUES TO RESIDE WITHIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE FL STRAITS...AND A SURFACE REFLECTION TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ROLLING ASHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. GOTTA GIVE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE SUITE SOME CREDIT AS MOST MEMBERS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A QPF MAXIMUM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THIS VERY AREA. THIS BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY AT LEAST PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING THE PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... TODAY... WHAT ELSE IS THERE TO SAY. ANOTHER WET DAY IN STORE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORM EXPECTED TO KEEP DEVELOPING INLAND OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST SHOULD SPREAD THE BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SEEN DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD UP THE COAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF OTHER FACTORS INCLUDING THE FLOW REGIME...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING WITH OR WITHOUT THE EVENTUAL INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS AND SOME LOCALLY HEFTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN AVERAGE 1-2" OF RAINFALL IS A GOOD BET TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE ALMOST CERTAINLY TO SEE MORE. ADDING TO SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS ALREADY EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN TODAY BY CLOUDS AND THE EXPECTED SHOWER COVERAGE AND HAVE KEPT ALL AREAS IN THE 80S. OBVIOUSLY NOT GOING TO BE THE GREATEST OF BEACH DAYS...BUT FOR THOSE THAT DO VENTURE INTO THE WATER...AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES DUE TO THE CHOPPY BREAKING SURF AND ONSHORE FLOW. UNUSUAL FOR SUMMER BUT JUST LIKE SUNDAY...WE ACTUALLY HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TODAY. WITH THIS SUBTLE SHEAR...A FEW ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR 2 INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INLAND THREAT WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IF WE CAN GET ANY SUNNY BREAKS AND ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL CAPE PROFILES. TONIGHT... FINALLY BY TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL LOSE MOST OF THE UPPER JET INFLUENCE AND ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE TO THE S/SE WITH TIME. WON`T HELP THE COASTAL ZONES MUCH...BUT MAY HELP TO DECREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER OUR INLAND COUNTIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE EASTERN GULF ACTIVE AND ALONG THE COAST THE CHANCE FOR CONTINUED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY... THESE DAYS WILL BEGIN A SLOW TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MORE TOWARD A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME...ANY STRONG SUPPRESSION FROM THE RIDGE IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE WILL NOT SHOW AN SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE UNTIL AROUND THURSDAY EITHER. THEREFORE...NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL AGAIN HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS ORGANIZED OR TEMPORALLY LONG AS TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS SHOW LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL...BUT OPTIMISTIC THAT THE TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL BE EVEN LESS STILL...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BEHAVING MORE TYPICAL OF JULY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A LIGHT AT THE END OF THIS TUNNEL LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR MORE SUN AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO ONE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF JULY FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)... THURSDAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY...WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SANDWICHING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER GULF WATERS WEST OF THE CWA. THESE FEATURES SLOWLY WORK WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE WEEKEND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE FORMING OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST TO THE SE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. DRIER AIR WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK...INTO THE LOWER SCATTERED RANGE. THE EAST AND SE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE BEST ODDS OF STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH THE EAST AND SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. && .AVIATION... SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA UNDER BKN MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL STREAM NORTHWARD...ACROSS/NEAR THE TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY BUT WITH SCT TSRA. && .MARINE... PERSISTENT MODERATE SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF INTO TUESDAY PRODUCING CHOPPY ELEVATED SEAS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH AND NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND ABNORMALLY HIGH RAIN COVERAGE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 86 77 90 77 / 90 70 70 50 FMY 86 75 91 75 / 90 50 70 30 GIF 88 73 90 74 / 80 40 70 30 SRQ 87 78 91 77 / 90 70 70 50 BKV 87 73 90 72 / 90 70 70 30 SPG 85 78 90 78 / 90 70 70 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CHARLOTTE- HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA AVIATION/LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE CONTENT. UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. DEESE .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF 2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY REALISTIC. 01 && .HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS. DEESE && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... STORMS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WILL SEE LOW CIGS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO MCN AND AHN...DEVELOP NW TO AFFECT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE ATL TERMINALS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO NEXT ROUND OF TSRA. BEST LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY TO THE WEST BUT BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WILL GO WITH BEST CHANCES FOR AHN AND MCN WITH A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO INCLUSION LATER TODAY FOR ATL. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON CIG DEVELOPMENT AND TSRA CHANCES. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS. DEESE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 60 50 ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 50 30 50 40 BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 64 / 60 50 50 50 CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 50 30 40 50 COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 50 20 30 40 GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 40 50 50 MACON 87 70 86 72 / 50 30 50 40 ROME 87 66 85 68 / 50 30 40 40 PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 50 30 40 40 VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 60 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEESE LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
156 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT INLAND AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE... A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PRODUCE TIMES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND INTO THE REGION AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MAINTAINED THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH OF I-16. THE KCHS RAOB DEPICTED A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS FEATURING PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT N/NE INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH/EAST EXPANSION OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THAT BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL FOCUS INLAND WITH REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI- COUNTY AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN GENERAL...UPDATED POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM LIKELY/CATEGORICAL SOUTH/WEST TO CHANCE/LIKELY NORTH/EAST. GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING...LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL HAVE DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIME FOR SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD WET CONDITIONS LOOK APPARENT ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SFC LOW REMAINS POSITIONED THE DEEP SOUTH AND LIKELY AMPLIFIES MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE REGION WHILE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FORCES THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN PINNED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AS PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 2.5 INCHES...FAVORABLE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OCCURS WITH AN H25 JET...AND SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE ON MONDAY WHEN ENHANCED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A 30-35 KT H85 JET WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AS THE WEAK SFC LOW TO OUR WEST RESULTS IN FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 OVER ALL LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPERIENCED AND ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MAINTAIN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRECISE LOCATION ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 70 OVER MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN THE INCREASING TREND IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE THE LARGE TROUGH TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST BEGINS TO MAKE A NORTHERN RETREAT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST PRECIP ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER FAR INLAND LOCATIONS...THUS HAVE KEEP 60-70 POPS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND NEAR 50 POPS ALONG THE COAST. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SATURATED PROFILES...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED EVENT WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS DURING PEAK HEATING. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG SFC HEATING DUE TO THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...HIGHEST INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD INDICATING DEEP HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING WEST OF THE AREA THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING TRANSITIONING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...BUT TIMING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS REMAINS DIFFICULT AS CONVECTION COULD OCCUR AT NEARLY ANYTIME. THE FORECAST AT BOTH TERMINALS HAS EITHER VICINITY SHOWERS OR PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WITH THE LATTER DURING TIMES WHEN GUIDANCE INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM ABOUT 17-21Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE GREATEST WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOWER CEILINGS RESULTING IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE... ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS JUSTIFY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL AREAS OUTSIDE CHARLESTON HARBOR OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN ELEVATED IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JETTING INTENSIFIES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER LOCAL WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONED INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ALL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS IN MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NEARSHORE SC WATERS AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK NEAR 20-25 KTS WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT DURING THE ADVISORY EVENT AS A 30-35 KT LOW LVL JET ADVANCES NORTH OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO MID WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RIP CURRENTS...AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG SC BEACHES DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS NEAR 15-20 MPH AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT. THUS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST...THUS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW CATEGORY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE WILL REMAIN AN IMPRESSIVE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE REGION REMAINS ANCHORED UNDERNEATH A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTING NORTH BETWEEN BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES...COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A PLETHORA OF UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MUCH OF THE REGION IS RUNNING WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ROUGHLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 16. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 30/845 PM EDT...2.33 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN AT THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR THE DATE. WE WILL TRANSMIT A RECORD EVENT REPORT AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN DAILY RAINFALL FOR JUNE 30 IS FINALIZED RECORD RAINFALL TOTALS FOR 30 JUNE... PREVIOUS CHARLESTON AIRPORT... 1.75 INCHES - 1987 WATERFRONT PARK...... 2.12 INCHES - 1944 SAVANNAH AIRPORT..... 3.06 INCHES - 1983 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ087-088-099>101. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ040-042>045- 047>052. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-374. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ354. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...SPR/JAQ SHORT TERM...DPB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...JAQ MARINE...DPB/SPR HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
204 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. THE CONVECTION IS DEFINITELY TRENDING DOWN AND THERE IS BARELY AND MORE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE IS AN AREA OF STRONG RETURNS OVER EAST TENN THAT IS MOVING TO THE NORTH AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO MCCREARY AND WHITLEY COUNTIES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM. EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 DID ANOTHER UPDATE TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PLOW NORTH...MAINLY INTO AREAS THAT SAW MORE LIMITED CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. WOULD EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ONCE IT GETS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY WHERE BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRED EARLIER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST HOUR. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE RADAR TRENDS...WITH HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WARRANTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN A SHARP CUTOFF BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION DOWNSTREAM...AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP THE LOW TEMPERATURES A HAIR...WITH DEW POINTS RECOVERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 CONVECTION APPEARS TO DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. HAVE RE-ALIGNED THE POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG A LINE FROM MOREHEAD...TO IRVINE...TO WHITLEY CITY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A BATCH OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN THIS COMING IN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT ITS CURRENT PACE...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH OUR BORDER CLOSER TO BETWEEN 10 AND 10:30 PM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 500MB LOW MADE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN KY THIS MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AN OCCLUDED FRONT HAS ALSO SET UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CREATING A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR MOISTURE LIFT AND PRECIP. 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS ALSO IMPLYING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF KY AND NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IN...OHIO...AND WV...WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION BEING OVER OHIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE GIVING INDICATIONS OF A BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL /DESPITE TSRA THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT/...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TODAY ONCE LLVL AND MID LEVEL CAPS HAVE BROKEN. SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BASED ON THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PREDOMINATE SW TO NE FLOW...STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MAKING THIS PATH THROUGH THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERNIGHT...THOUGH LOW WILL STILL PLAY A ROLE IN SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS...OCCLUDED FRONT AND BEST LIFT WILL BEGIN EXITING TO THE EAST. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE MORE OF A RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH SOME LINGERING TO ISOLATED TSRA STILL POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...SOME VALLEY FOG COULD NOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS. THINGS WILL CHANGE BY TOMORROW /MONDAY/ HOWEVER...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER SE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PULL THE OCCLUDED FRONT SLIGHTLY BACK WESTWARD AND PLACE A BULLSEYE OF QVECTOR CONV OVER NORTHERN KY...EASTERN IN...AND WESTERN OHIO...WITH REASONABLE CONV EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THREE STATES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH A BETTER POOL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT MUCH HIGHER PROB OF CONVECTION AND TSRA POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AS INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING PEAK. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SPEED SHEAR IS GOOD...BUT THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LACKING...SO EXPECT STORMS TO FOLLOW THE FLOW OF THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND DROP DOWN/REDEVELOP OFTEN. THE CHALLENGE IS THEN TRYING TO PINPOINT EXACT ONSET OF PRECIP AS WELL AS TRYING TO BEST TRACK WHERE THE CELLS WILL DEVELOP. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED WESTWARD BY THE STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST COAST HEADING TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL WEAR DOWN THE PLAIN/S TROUGH HELPING IT TO FILL WHILE LESSENING ITS EFFECT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. WHILE HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING LOCALLY AS THE TROUGH GIVES WAY TO RIDGING...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH DEEP LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THE EXTENDED...MINOR MID LEVEL WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH LITTLE FORECASTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...BUT LIKELY TO PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED RIDGING MAY BUILD IN ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA... BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE POP HEAVY. ALL IN ALL...THE MODEL SIMILARITIES RAISE CONFIDENCE IN THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT THE CR GRID LOAD WILL PROVIDE...THOUGH AM WARY OF THE HIGHER POPS THIS WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RATHER DAMP...AND INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN...FOR EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE EXTENDED. THE DAILY SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT STRAY ONES AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL AT NIGHT...AS WELL. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EAST MAY PUSH IN ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH A RATHER CLOUDY AND DAMP ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...DID NOT ADJUST THE RIDGES AND VALLEYS MUCH FOR LOWS. THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT ENOUGH...BUT PERHAPS TOO HIGH WITH POPS DURING THE NIGHT AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND SO HAVE NUDGED THEM DOWN. IN ADDITION...BUMPED MAX TEMPS A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE ACTIVITY. EXPECTING LOTS OF VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. FOR THE TAF STATIONS...EXPECTING THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT JKL AND LOZ AS THERE HAS BEEN MORE RAINFALL OVER THAT PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z ON ACROSS THE AREA. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD INDICATION OF WHEN THE TAF STATIONS WILL GET THUNDER...SO JUST LEFT VCTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THOUGHT IT WOULD BE RIDICULOUS TO BLANKET THE TAF WITH TEMPO GROUPS WITH SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJ SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A BERMUDA RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE UPPER LOW SAGA CONTINUES TODAY AS THIS FEATURE ROTATES ABOVE THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EQUALLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...LOCKING THE LOW IN PLACE AND SOLIDIFYING A CORRIDOR OF ERN GULF AND SRN ATLC MOISTURE TO TREK NWD UP THE ERN SEABOARD. SEVERAL LARGE SWATHS OF PRECIP ARE SPENDING THE OVERNIGHT HRS DRIFTING UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR...SRN AND CNTRL APLCNS AND AREAS IN BETWEEN. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESIDUAL STRATIFORM PRECIP FROM EARLIER TSTMS. STILL SOME WEAK CONVECTION EMBEDDED ALL ACROSS THE SRN ATLC STATES AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE OHIO VLY...BUT THE LARGEST BATCH OF STORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SERN PA. AN INTERESTING MID-LEVEL PICTURE SETTING UP ON THE WV SAT LOOP...W/ MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SWRN SIDE OF THE MOIST AXIS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. THIS ADDS A SHARPER STRATIFICATION OF DRY/MOIST AIR BEST SUITED FOR INDIVIDUAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE TROPICAL LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AND CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE THAN ON SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MORE CLOUD-FILLED TODAY - LIMITING INSTABILITY - AS WILL THE MORE MOIST ADIABATIC COLUMN LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE DRY AIR FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL LIKELY MAKE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON AREAS TO OUR SOUTH IN TERMS OF AIDING SEVERITY TO STORMS...THOUGH A FEW STRONG/SVR AREN`T OUT THE QUESTION ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY. EXPANDED THE FF WATCH TO THE BLUE RIDGE FOR N CNTRL MD AND PORTIONS OF NRN VA. FORECASTING A CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE LEE OF THE CNTRL APLCNS TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE NAM HAS SHIFTED IT MORE TOWARD THE SHEN VLY/BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH IT ALSO HAS THE AXIS DRIFTING EWD THRU THE EVE HRS. LOCAL GUIDANCE AND THE RECENT RUC PROGS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR BUT A BIT FURTHER EAST...SO THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE WEST - ALTHOUGH ISOLATED/LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE ANYWHERE OVER THE CWA IF TRAINING CELLS DEVELOP. IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LARGE AREAS OF LIGHT/MODERATE STRATIFORM RAINS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO RAINFALL TOTALS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE IN SPOTS AND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 70S AND A FEW U60S AFTER ONLY REACHING THE L80S FOR HIGHS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AFTER TODAY`S CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE...TUESDAY WILL BE SPREAD A BIT MORE THINLY OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS...BUT THE OVERHEAD COLUMN WILL BE EVEN MORE MOIST AND THEREFORE MORE STABLE. PWATS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON MONDAY...SO ISOLATED FLOODING WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY...AND POSSIBLY A DEGREE/TWO LOWER. PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST AND A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED IN A ZONE OF HIGH MOISTURE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA RIDGE AND LIFT FROM SHORTWAVES TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE RETROGRADED WEST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 INCHES PLUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE AXES/BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SET UP...AND WILL NEED TO RESOLVE THIS WITH TIME. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP/WEAKEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE RIBBON OF HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO THE WEST AND MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. BUT EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR AT LEAST DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA FOR CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE IT WILL BE WARM WITH MAXIMA AROUND 90...CWA MAY ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO SHORTWAVES THAT COULD FIRE CONVECTION PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL IS MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS W/ THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY HAVING DEVELOPED OVER SERN PA...DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW MORE BATCHES OF THIS TYPE OF MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 6-8 HRS. THE MAIN WX CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL BE DROPPING CIG HEIGHTS...WELL INTO MVFR AND SOME IFR RANGES FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND OVER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MRNG HRS. ONCE SOME DAYTIME MIXING HELPS TO BREAK SOME HOLES INTO THE CLOUD LAYER...THE THICKER LOW CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE A BIT AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE TSTM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVE TOWARD THE METRO AREAS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE TO LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUE. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/EVE AS WELL. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE WEEK AS A BERMUDA RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST. WITH HIGH MOISTURE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS/QUICK VSBY REDUCTIONS CAN OCCUR IN SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...COULD ALSO DEAL WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY CHANNELING OF WINDS THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY OVERNIGHT AND BASICALLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ON THE WAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS...W/ MORE BATCHES OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ON MON AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT...W/ ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE DURING THE LATE WEEK...SO SHRA/TSRA MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY SHRA/TSRA OF COURSE COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH POSSIBLE SCA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT GRADIENT MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 3/4 TO 1 FT REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 FT ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. APAM2 REMAINED JUST UNDER MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLD ON LAST HIGH TIDE AROUND 1 AM. THE NEXT TIDE CYCLE IS THE LOWER ONE...AND WITH ANOMALIES FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIC...DO NOT EXPECT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SUBSEQUENT CYCLE TONIGHT WILL BE OF MORE CONCERN AND COULD BE CLOSE TO MINOR THRESHOLDS AT SENSITIVE LOCATIONS /SUCH AS ANNAPOLIS...WITH HIGH TIDE AT 158 AM/. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DCZ001. MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>007-009>011- 013-014-016>018. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ042-050>057-501- 502. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537- 540>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-539. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-538. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GMS/BPP NEAR TERM...GMS SHORT TERM...GMS/BPP LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...GMS/BPP MARINE...GMS/BPP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
317 AM MDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. THE 01/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LIMITED OTHER THAN THOSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS. THE ECMWF IS JUST A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE AS IS THE GFS. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH A WAVE INTO THE CWA YESTERDAY INTO YESTERDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...FELT COMFORTABLE INSERTING A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY...LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EAST. WILL GO WITH LOWER HIGHS THERE ANYWAY GIVEN THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES CLOSER TO THE CWA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SUPPRESSION OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A MUCH GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE IN A RANGE OF +22C TO +25C ACROSS THE CWA. THIS EASILY SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW AREAS PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM...AND WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 90S. WEDNESDAY PRESENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS AIR FLOWS DOWN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE CWA. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +24C AND +30C TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 90 OR ABOVE DURING THE AFTERNOON VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. ALSO...GIVEN WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WARMER START TO BEGIN WITH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN MAKING FOR A VERY HOT DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH FULL VERTICAL MIXING...MID AND UPPER 90S ARE A POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION. WILL NOT GET OVERLY CARRIED AWAY JUST YET AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY PUT A CEILING ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB. THE LATEST NAM BRINGS IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH COULD SET OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRY HOWEVER FOR THE PERIOD. INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL ASCENT WHEN NORTHEAST MONTANA WINDS UP TO THE LEFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH SUCH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...AS A WAVE APPROACHES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND SO INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. IF ANYTHING ELSE...CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS COULD ALSO RESULT IN PUTTING A CAP ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN A FEW PLACES. THUS...EXPECT BROADLY MID 90S ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...IN AREAS WHERE FULL VERTICAL MIXING IS REALIZED...AND CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IS MINIMIZED...CAN EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE UPPER 90S. WHILE A FEW MODELS POINT OUT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF UPPER 90S BEING MORE WIDESPREAD...SOME OF THE RELIABLE MODEL BLENDS AND BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL BLENDS POINT MORE TOWARD MID 90S. THEREFORE...LEANED TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FURTHER FOR A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS IT IS STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS OUT. MALIAWCO .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MONTANA BY SATURDAY. WILL SEE FREQUENT SHORTWAVES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A COOLER AND AT TIMES AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO THE FORECAST AREA THAT COULD LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BECOME DIFFICULT TO TIME IN THIS PATTERN AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME INSTABILITY BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WILL GENERALLY BROADBRUSH FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. FORRESTER && .AVIATION... VFR. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. EXPECT FOR THE LOCAL EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KGGW...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
409 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN QUEBEC DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TODAY AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SLOW MOVING STORMS AND A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMALS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE MUGGY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEP 500 MB TROF DIPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SSW FLOW ALOFT. IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOW THIS PICKING UP MOISTURE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND LIFTING IT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS WHERE ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS. FOR THE MOST PART...THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROF AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LIONS SHARE OF THIS MOISTURE TO OUR EAST TODAY. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS ALL POINT TO THE GREATEST QPFS ACROSS EASTERN PA/NY...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP...AND IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK APPEARS OUT OF THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK...THERE ARE A FEW SUBTLETIES WHICH NEED TO BE WATCHED. AN INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL HELP SPREAD MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. WHILE THE TRAJECTORY OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST...THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT...WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THEREFORE...STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STALL ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. IT WOULD TAKE A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THIS...AND AT THIS TIME THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL DEVELOP AND IF SO WHERE. SOME RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT IN THIS FROM OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS NOT AMPLE CONFIDENCE IN A WATCH...BUT ONE COULD BE ISSUED IF A CLEAR BOUNDARY DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM SE-NW TODAY...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD LIFT EAST OF THE REGION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE WHILE BRINGING THE HEAVIEST RAINS JUST TO OUR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SLIGHTLY WHEN COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE EXIT OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF MOISTURE. WHILE IT IS TOO FAR TO BE TRACED ON SATELLITE...ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE LIKELY...AND WITH THE SURFACE TROF LIKELY TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST...ANY WAVE WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF CROSSING OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD POSE ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS TIME PERIOD AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SUCH THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD. TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO START THE DAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF WNY AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AS THE LIKELIEST PLACE FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SATURATED GROUND...MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION WHICH WILL ALSO PUSH THE SURFACE TROF AXIS FURTHER WEST. WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. ON WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS BY WEDNESDAY CLIMB BACK UPWARDS TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME FORMING GIVING THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW. TRADITIONALLY THESE LAKE BREEZES WILL PLACE CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WILL PLACE LIKELY POPS HERE WHILE HOLDING THE REMAINING AREAS UNDER A CHANCE POP. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OF THE LAKE BREEZES DIMINISH THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BETWEEN 14 AND 16C ACROSS THE CWA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT NIGHT TIME...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND A POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ON THURSDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD PWATS WILL CLIMB UPWARDS TOWARDS 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ONTARIO WILL BE MORE LIKELY THURSDAY...WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING A STABLE AIRMASS INLAND LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE OPEN WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS ALLOWS THE BERMUDA HIGH TO PRESS FARTHER INLAND. THIS PUSH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BACK THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND SHIFT THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI. WILL STILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE BREEZES MAY TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THIS MOISTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY START TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING A HEIGHTEN RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THOUGH WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD...AND HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD TO AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND SOME INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z...MOST TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...LOW TO MID CLOUD DECKS LIKELY TO STAY ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS AT JHW...WHERE THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. AT JHW...CONDITIONS APPEAR NOTABLY DIFFERENT FROM LAST NIGHT IN THAT THERE IS A 5-8 KT FLOW WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT. INSTEAD...EXPECT LOWER CIGS FROM MVFR TO IFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR TODAY...EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS...AS LOW CLOUD DECKS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND IN A NE FLOW. MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SHOWERS MID- MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WAVE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. ANY SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY...TEMPORARILY LOWERING VSBY TO 2SM OR LESS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH CONTINUED LOW MOISTURE LIKELY TO RESULT IN MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT JHW. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR EACH DAY. && .MARINE... A MODEST NE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP BUILD WAVES ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WEST-CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA BRIEFLY TODAY ON WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS MARGINAL ON LAKE ERIE...BUT CONSIDERING POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT...WILL ISSUE AN SCA FOR LAKE ERIE WEST OF DUNKIRK...MAINLY FOR WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...APFFEL SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...THOMAS AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
403 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES. NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT. CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED. HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 400 AM EDT UPDATE... THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPS. 1145 AM EDT UPDATE... MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND. LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST /LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 200 AM EDT UPDATE... A DIFFICULT FORECAST IS AHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KELM AND KBGM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS LINGERING FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI... VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... 4 PM UPDATE... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS ALBANY. ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND DELAWARE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY, CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN INCH IN THE WATCH AREA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037- 044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...KAH/MDP AVIATION...KAH HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
301 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES. NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT. CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED. HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1145 AM EDT UPDATE... MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND. LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST /LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 200 AM EDT UPDATE... A DIFFICULT FORECAST IS AHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KELM AND KBGM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS LINGERING FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI... VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... 4 PM UPDATE... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS ALBANY. ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND DELAWARE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY, CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN INCH IN THE WATCH AREA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...KAH HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
217 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... 940 PM UPDATE... AS EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL USE 30-40 POPS TO COVER REMAINING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. RE-TIMED PRECIP ONSET SLIGHTLY BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST. 730 PM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS ATTM. CURRENTLY WATCHING CONVECTION, WHICH WE ANTICIPATE WILL WEAKEN BETWEEN 730 PM AND 10 PM WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. 4 PM UPDATE... FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF IT LOCALIZED BUT IN SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD FLOODING A FEW DAYS AGO. ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SE TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. MORE DETAILS AT BOTTOM. A SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM PIT TO ALY ACROSS THE CWA. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSE OF SFC HEATING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELPED BY A SHORT WAVE. WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE MEANT SLOW MOVING CONVECTION. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 4 PM UPDATE... SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS TO CHANGE LITTLE MONDAY TO TUESDAY. THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES AND MAYBE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT COMBINED WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UL JET CREATING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGE OFF OF ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE WEST TIGHTENING THE CONVERGENCE OVER NY PA. WITH HEATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AFTER MONDAY SUBTLE FEATURES WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP. WITH NO CAP AND MARGINAL SHEAR AND CAPE ANY SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1145 AM EDT UPDATE... MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND. LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST /LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 200 AM EDT UPDATE... A DIFFICULT FORECAST IS AHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KELM AND KBGM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS LINGERING FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI... VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... 4 PM UPDATE... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS ALBANY. ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND DELAWARE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY, CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN INCH IN THE WATCH AREA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...KAH HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 PM SUNDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... TONIGHT... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES ALL THE WAY NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR GREENSBORO (WHICH REPORTED 1.86 PW AT 00Z/THIS EVENING). AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A STRENGTHENING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WAS ALSO AIDING THE STRONG SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS SC/NC INTO VA. THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN OVERTURNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER ALMOST ALL OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION STILL ONGOING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SPREADING OUTWARD FROM THE CORE OF THE EXPANSIVE STABILIZED ZONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT (WHERE THE CONVECTION EARLIER PRODUCED LIFE THREATENING FLOODING OVER CHATHAM AND ORANGE COUNTIES). IT IS ALONG THESE OUTFLOWS WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION MAY STILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 100 OR 200 AM... NAMELY FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT... AND BACK OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH POP FOR FAY TO RDU TO RWI THROUGH THAT TIME... WITH LOWERING POP ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ONLY ROUND ONE... AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH... EXCESSIVELY WET PW`S... AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES (LEAD ON OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA TONIGHT). CONVECTION CAN RE-FIRE QUICKLY IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT... EVEN LATE AT NIGHT (BUT MOST LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY WITH HEATING). REGARDLESS... TRAINING OF STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE VERY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. -BADGETT && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY... OVERALL: OUR PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS OR BANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WE ARE CERTAIN TO SEE POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES LOCALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE SLOW-MOVING AND/OR REPEATED STORMS. RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT: WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN CONSTANTLY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME... THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS (AND LIKELY LONGER) OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE... INCLUDING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE SHARPENING UPPER JET FROM ERN TN/KY THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS... AND REPEATED SHOTS OF DPVA AS PERTURBATIONS RIDE FROM THE NE GULF UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IN PARTICULAR... BOTH CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED-CONVECTION MODELS LATCH ONTO THE MID LEVEL MCV OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD WHILE DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING SSW STEERING FLOW NORTHWARD TOWARD NC TONIGHT. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE (NOTED ON MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE PLOTS) NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IN ADDITION TO THE STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS... MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY HOLDS OVER CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE STAYING IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT... AND RISING TO 800-1600 ON MONDAY. (IN THE NEAR TERM... MESOANALYSES SHOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM... AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS.) DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VERY HIGH PW AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING IN DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS... AS THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH OVER 4 KM) WILL ENCOURAGE WARM RAIN PROCESSES... AND THE ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ARE AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS... EVEN IF IT ONLY RAINS HEAVILY FOR 15-30 MINUTES IN ANY GIVEN SPOT... RAPID RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN COULD EASILY FALL... LEADING TO RAPID RUNOFF AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT ON ANY STREETS AND ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION... STORMS MAY HOLD IN THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED TIME AS CELLS MAY TEND TO PROPAGATE BACK TO THE SW... AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP RUNS SHOWING LOWERING MBE VELOCITIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDS BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70-90% CHANCE EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AS BOTH STORM-SCALE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN A VOLATILE AND VERY WET COLUMN APPEAR INEVITABLE... AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COUPLE OF RELATIVE LULLS WITH ONLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... IT IS DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN WHEN SUCH A LULL MIGHT OCCUR. AND EVEN DURING TIMES OF LOWER STORM COVERAGE... INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD STILL DROP BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. CLOUDS/TEMPS: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND... AND ANY SIGNIFICANT HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN WITH EITHER STRATUS AT NIGHT OR CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. THIS... IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEADY BREEZE FROM THE SSE OR SOUTH... SHOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH WARM NIGHTS (LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S). WCENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A DEEP...MOISTURE SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHIFTS ONLY SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO EXPAND. PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES...IF NOT INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALSO SHIFTS WESTWARD. MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A WAVE PASSING MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCE PRECIP...BUT GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THIS PATTERN...ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF QPF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CARRIED OUT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AND MAY POSSIBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY IN SOME AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY /SHEAR DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY...TAILING OFF TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....SHIFTING THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THUS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 150 AM MONDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LATEST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN 2-4 HOURS... AND AFFECT THE REGION FROM 08Z-15Z THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOW VISBYS. FOR NOW WILL COVER THIS THREAT WITH VCSH IN THE TAFS... AS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE IFR/LOW END MVFR RANGE AT THIS TIME. AFTER 15Z... EXPECT WE MAY SEE A GENERAL BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH MORE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER THIS MORNING... IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS... WITH VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AGAIN. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND AS CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD... SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING. BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE RESTRICTED TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS... WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WELL. WE SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC STARTS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011- 021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
409 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST...A SUNNY AND QUIET MONDAY IS FORECAST. GIVEN LITTLE SPREAD IN 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WILL UTILIZE A BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE 07 UTC HRRR WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC 4KM WRF...AND 00 UTC NAM/GFS AND 03 UTC SREF. ALL DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET WITH A CLEAR AND QUIET MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK. 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE LAS VEGAS CENTERED RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. BY LATE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DIRECT MORE VIGOROUS MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING OF THE STRONGEST LOW AMONG 00 UTC ECMWF/GEFS/GFS/GEM GLOBAL DIFFERS BY UP TO 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S AS THE POLAR FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...SCHECK AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1148 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013 .UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF`S. && .AVIATION...MOST OF THIS EVENING`S CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED, WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING A FEW PLACES ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AM EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT, WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW CIGS DEVELOPING AT CSV LATER ON. LOOK FOR A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, BUT WITH AN UPPER LOW STILL SITUATED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE, EXPECT STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP TOMORROW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/ EVENING UPDATE... PESKY UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION HAS CAUSED EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION...CAUSING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EVEN SOME MINOR FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS IN PUTNAM COUNTY WITH ONE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS WANED...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS EAST OF 65 THROUGH ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT...THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS THEREAFTER FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/ UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF`S. AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SCATTERED CELLS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE MID STATE. HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER DARK, SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH REMARKS (TEMPO AT CSV) THROUGH 02Z. LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AT CSV. AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
257 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A stretch of hot summer weather will continue through mid week. Triple digit heat is expected over much of the region on Monday and Tuesday, and Heat Advisories remain in effect. A cooling trend is expected Wednesday through Friday, but high temperatures for the majority of the Inland Northwest will remain above normal through early next week. The Inland Northwest is expected to remain generally dry...except for a few thunderstorms mainly over the mountains during the week. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight...Water vapor satellite imagery shows a large area of high pressure centered just east of the area over western Montana and southeast Idaho with an upper level trough offshore near 140w. This strong ridge will promote very hot temperatures today with highs in the upper 90s to around 105. The hottest temperatures are expected around the Lewiston area. A heat advisory remains in effect. The placement of the ridge will result in a deep southerly flow through tonight with upper level moisture being drawn northward. This will be aimed especially at the Cascades beginning this morning...which combined with elevated instability will generate a good chance for isolated thunderstorms today primarily from Moses Lake to Omak westward to the Cascades. The NAM model is most preferred as it is handling the convection over Central Oregon this morning much better compared to the GFS and ECMWF models. NAM shows most unstable CAPE values of 200-400 J/KG with some weak lift over North Central Washington. Some mid level moisture/instability will also move into Eastern Washington and North Idaho with afternoon with elevated CAPE values as high as 100 J/KG but this most likely will not be enough to generate any convection. For tonight another band of elevated moisture/instability will be oriented from Central Oregon northeast into the Blue Mountains and Lewiston area. The NAM shows elevated CAPE values of 300-700 J/KG but with some CIN to overcome. Without any kicker to penetrate through this layer convection is not expected and will continue with a dry forecast. JW .Tuesday through Thursday night...Looks like one more very hot day awaits the Inland Northwest as abnormally strong upper level ridge holds strong over the western US on Tuesday. The big question is will Tuesday be warmer than Monday. 500 mb heights will fall 1-2 decameters however the usually accurate 850-700 mb thickness values suggest the cooling will be slight at best. Highs still should still make the mid 90s to around 105 with the hottest values expected over the lower Columbia Basin and Snake River Valley. While these temperatures won`t generally exceed the records for the date...they will be near over most locations. The other question to ponder for Tuesday will be the risk of thunderstorms. Model guidance is consistent on keeping the best moisture and potential instability over extreme SE Washington and into the central Idaho Panhandle. If the NAM is correct we will see SBCAPE values ranging from 2500-4000 j/kg which is awfully high for this region while CIN values will generally be less than 30 in that area. To attain these lofty values...the NAM is producing dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s...which seems awfully high...however if convection forms overnight Monday in eastern Oregon and surges northward during the day it could be possible. Given the NAM parameters...there would also be a small chance of severe thunderstorms over this area if everything came to fruition. The only thing lacking is a well-defined upper level shortwave to overcome the CIN layer. As such...we suspect isolated convection could form over the higher terrain from the Blue Mountains NE toward the Clearwaters more akin to the GFS and ECMWF. By Wednesday and Thursday the ridge will undergo a significant dampening over the PacNW as longwave trough axis currently along 140w will split into two sections with the northern portion shifting through southern BC Tuesday evening. This passage will result in more of a zonal flow pattern over the Inland NW with much drier air spilling over the Cascades. This will result in a much lesser chance of showers and thunderstorms as the precipitable water values decrease from 150% of normal on Tuesday to near 100% on Thursday. If thunder were to occur on either of the two days the likely scenario would place the threat over the Camas Prairie to the Clearwaters. More likely will be increasing winds...especially in the lee of the Cascades on Tuesday evening and across the remainder of the region on Wednesday. It does not look like we will be dealing with windy conditions as 850 speeds max out around 20 kts. Temperatures should cool both days as 850-700 mb thickness values continue to drop...however readings will likely remain above normal with highs generally in the 90s on Wednesday and into the mid 80s to mid 90s on Thursday. fx .Friday through Sunday Night: Through this time frame we will see temperatures start to flatten out a bit as the upper level flow becomes a zonal/ slight trough pattern. Much of the moisture in this flow looks to be limited for our region as an upper level cutoff low in the Pacific intercepts most of it leaving us with a generally dry period. The main part of the associated trough will pass to our north leaving us with some very limited instability mainly on the USA/BC border and then transitioning to the N Idaho/ Montana border late Friday into Saturday. I did leave slight chance mention of t-storms in the higher elevations corresponding to the mentioned areas but any storms that do form will be weaker and likely short lived in nature. Other than the slight chances...precipitation chances look very minimal for the entire forecast area. As the trough pushes to the east a ridge looks to build in behind it which will further increase our chances of staying mainly sunny and dry. The one factor that could introduce increased moisture would be if a strong monsoonal push of moisture was to come up the ridge from the Southwest and into our area. Models are not in agreement of anything of this nature...but it will be something to monitor if this ridge scenario would set up. Overall conditions look pleasant in this period with temps in the 80s and lower 90s for most valley locations and slightly cooler for the higher elevations with limited cloud cover. Some breezy wind conditions may be present Friday..but should not be anything of major significance. /Fliehman && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS...Expect an incr in mid and high clouds across Lewiston and Pullman btwn 6-12z as decaying cluster of thunderstorms tracks northward through Ern OR. HRRR model suggest this surface based convection will dissipate upon reaching SE WA arnd 11z. Otherwise... mid and high level moisture trickling up the western periphery of a ridge in place will bring increasing midlevel clouds aft 15z with a slight chance for elevated -tsra along the spine of the Cascades and vcnty of KEAT. Cigs with this activity will generally be 10-15K AGL and confidence is too low to include in TAF. Additionally...a brief period of winds incr 10-13kts is expected at KCOE during the early morning. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 98 70 99 67 93 61 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 98 66 96 66 92 61 / 0 10 10 10 0 0 Pullman 99 65 97 63 92 57 / 10 10 10 10 10 10 Lewiston 105 73 104 71 99 66 / 10 10 10 10 10 10 Colville 101 64 101 61 96 59 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 Sandpoint 95 60 95 61 91 56 / 0 10 10 10 10 10 Kellogg 96 65 94 65 91 60 / 0 10 20 20 10 10 Moses Lake 104 71 104 68 99 63 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 100 73 101 70 95 65 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 101 68 103 65 97 62 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from Noon today to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. WA...Heat Advisory from Noon today to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties- Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands- Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1041 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A stretch of hot summer weather will continue through the week. Triple digit heat is expected over much of the region on Monday and Tuesday, and Heat Advisories are in effect. Temperatures are expected to remain above average Wednesday through Friday, but high temperatures for the majority of the Inland Northwest will moderate into the 80s by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Evening update: Minor update this evening to increase skies some across extreme southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle. This is largely to account for convective debris spreading from thunderstorm activity tracking north through eastern Oregon. The main cluster of thunderstorms are still south of Baker, OR but satellite reveals cirrus already extending into the Blue Mtns and this trend will likely continue as HRRR indicates the storms will hold together for a few hours before dissipating around 9z. 00z guidance in conjunction with water vapor imagery continues to bring midlevel moisture and instability up the spine of the Cascades early Monday morning. Unlike Saturday morning, there is not a clear lifting mechanism or shortwave that will be present to utilize the 100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE within the 700-500mb layer and confidence is not exceptionally high that thunderstorms will materialize. Needless to say, models continue to bring spotty QPF to portions of southern Chelan County and points south between 12-18z Monday so will leave the 20 PoP inherited however this does not look as promising as Saturday`s event. /sb && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS...Expect an incr in mid and high clouds across Lewiston and Pullman btwn 6-12z as decaying cluster of thunderstorms tracks northward through Ern OR. HRRR model suggest this surface based convection will dissipate upon reaching SE WA arnd 11z. Otherwise... mid and high level moisture trickling up the western periphery of a ridge in place will bring increasing midlevel clouds aft 15z with a slight chance for elevated -tsra along the spine of the Cascades and vcnty of KEAT. Cigs with this activity will generally be 10-15K AGL and confidence is too low to include in TAF. Additionally...a brief period of winds incr 10-13kts is expected at KCOE during the early morning. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 66 99 70 99 67 94 / 0 10 10 10 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 64 98 67 98 65 94 / 0 0 10 10 10 0 Pullman 60 99 66 97 63 93 / 0 10 10 10 10 10 Lewiston 69 105 73 103 71 99 / 0 10 10 10 10 10 Colville 62 101 66 103 62 98 / 0 10 10 10 0 0 Sandpoint 57 96 62 97 62 91 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 Kellogg 61 96 66 96 65 93 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 Moses Lake 66 104 71 105 68 99 / 0 10 10 10 0 0 Wenatchee 70 100 73 102 70 96 / 0 20 10 10 0 0 Omak 66 101 69 103 64 98 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. WA...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties- Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands- Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
941 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A stretch of hot summer weather will continue through the week. Triple digit heat is expected over much of the region on Monday and Tuesday, and Heat Advisories are in effect. Temperatures are expected to remain above average Wednesday through Friday, but high temperatures for the majority of the Inland Northwest will moderate into the 80s by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Evening update: Minor update this evening to increase skies some across extreme southeastern WA and the lower ID Panhandle. This is largely to account for convective debris spreading from thunderstorm activity tracking north through eastern Oregon. The main cluster of thunderstorms are still south of Baker, OR but satellite reveals cirrus already extending into the Blue Mtns and this trend will likely continue as HRRR indicates the storms will hold together for a few hours before dissipating around 9z. 00z guidance in conjunction with water vapor imagery continues to bring midlevel moisture and instability up the spine of the Cascades early Monday morning. Unlike Saturday morning, there is not a clear lifting mechanism or shortwave that will be present to utilize the 100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE within the 700-500mb layer and confidence is not exceptionally high that thunderstorms will materialize. Needless to say, models continue to bring spotty QPF to portions of southern Chelan County and points south between 12-18z Monday so will leave the 20 PoP inherited however this does not look as promising as Saturday`s event. /sb && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS...A ridge of high pressure will be the dominate feature over the Inland NW through 00z Tue promoting VFR skies and light winds for most terminals. The one aviation concern will be a shallow surge of monsoonal moisture trickling up the western periphery of the ridge leading to increasing midlevel clouds aft 15z. The heart of the moisture tracks up the spine of the Cascades and could bring an isolated elevated shower or thunderstorm vcnty of KEAT. Cigs with this activity will generally be 10-15K AGL. There will also be a brief period of winds incr 10-13kts at KCOE during the early morning. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 66 99 70 99 67 94 / 0 10 10 10 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 64 98 67 98 65 94 / 0 0 10 10 10 0 Pullman 60 99 66 97 63 93 / 0 10 10 10 10 10 Lewiston 69 105 73 103 71 99 / 0 10 10 10 10 10 Colville 62 101 66 103 62 98 / 0 10 10 10 0 0 Sandpoint 57 96 62 97 62 91 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 Kellogg 61 96 66 96 65 93 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 Moses Lake 66 104 71 105 68 99 / 0 10 10 10 0 0 Wenatchee 70 100 73 102 70 96 / 0 20 10 10 0 0 Omak 66 101 69 103 64 98 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. WA...Heat Advisory from Noon Monday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties- Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands- Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER ORANGE COUNTY AT THIS TIME. SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH TRAINING A CONCERN AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN ORANGE COUNTY...FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MAINE...SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WILL LIFT NNEWD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDING AND IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NJ OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WILL MEAN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN RECENTLY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER THE AREA AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND SOME WEAK LIFTING WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH MONDAY. THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO MONDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE DRYING PROFILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP. 85H TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL AVERAGE 16 TO 18 DEG C. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL FRI INTO SAT AS SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION THOUGH STILL APPEARS TO BE SCT IN NATURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER OR DYNAMICS TO RELY ON. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF PCPN. ONE AREA OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...EXPECT TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO THE EVENING. MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TSTM ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT SITES WEST OF NYC...THOUGH A STRAY TSTM COULD MAKE IT INTO THE CITY TERMINALS. EXPECTING JUST SHRA OVER LI/CT SITES. PSBL PCPN AGAIN TONIGHT BUT TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE. CIGS AND VIS WILL GO UP AND DOWN WITH SPOTTY PCPN. FOR THE DAY...CURRENTLY THINKING MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE HEAVIER PCPN MAY BRING IN IFR OR LOWER. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE TODAY. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER 1-2 HOURS MORE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE TODAY. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING...BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE TODAY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TSTMS TODAY. LIGHT PCPN THIS MORNING...BCMG HEAVIER THIS AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUES-FRI... SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS...GENERALLY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. IFR OR LOWER PSBL AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG. && .MARINE... DENSE FOG OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND THROUGH 2 PM THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY. PERSISTENT S SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. A GRADUALLY VEERING SLY FLOW TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO FALL BELOW 5 FT BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND. && .HYDROLOGY... CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...AND 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES...SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY APPROACH AND EXCEED BANKFULL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>070. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330- 338-340-345-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/DW NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...SEARS MARINE...JP/DW HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
710 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER ORANGE COUNTY AT THIS TIME. SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH TRAINING A CONCERN AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN ORANGE COUNTY...FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MAINE...SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WILL LIFT NNEWD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW IN COVERAGE AS THE MORNING PROGRESS WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDING AND IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST NJ OF BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE AREA...AS WELL AS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS WILL MEAN FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR ALL OTHER AREAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN RECENTLY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER THE AREA AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND SOME WEAK LIFTING WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH MONDAY. THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO MONDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DRYING AND WARMING OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. THE DRYING PROFILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMUP. 85H TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL AVERAGE 16 TO 18 DEG C. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL FRI INTO SAT AS SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. CONVECTION THOUGH STILL APPEARS TO BE SCT IN NATURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER OR DYNAMICS TO RELY ON. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF PCPN. ONE AREA OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IS WINDS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS...EXPECT TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS BY THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO THE EVENING. MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TSTM ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT SITES WEST OF NYC...THOUGH A STRAY TSTM COULD MAKE IT INTO THE CITY TERMINALS. EXPECTING JUST SHRA OVER LI/CT SITES. PSBL PCPN AGAIN THIS COMING NIGHT BUT TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE. CIGS AND VIS WILL GO UP AND DOWN THE REST OF TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING GENERALLY IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. FOR THE DAY...CURRENTLY THINKING MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE HEAVIER PCPN MAY BRING IN IFR OR LOWER. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER 1-2 HOURS MORE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ISO IN NATURE THIS MORNING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN START TIME MAY BE 1-2 HRS LATER. LOW CONFIDENCE OF TSTMS TODAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY NGT-FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS. IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG. && .MARINE... DENSE FOG OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND THROUGH 2 PM THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY. PERSISTENT S SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AT SCA LEVELS. A GRADUALLY VEERING SLY FLOW TO THE W/SW BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TO FALL BELOW 5 FT BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND. && .HYDROLOGY... CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NJ THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER SOME OF THESE AREAS...AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...AND 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES...SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY APPROACH AND EXCEED BANKFULL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DECREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>070. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330- 338-340-345-350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/DW NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...SEARS MARINE...JP/DW HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1008 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .UPDATE... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE PROGGING A WEAKER LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS NW GA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT FURTHER WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AS IT GETS AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ADDITION...DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND A FEW OF THEM COULD BE STRONG. ISOLATED SEVERE WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z MODIFIED SOUNDING DID SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF CAPE. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE CONTENT. UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. DEESE LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF 2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY REALISTIC. 01 HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS. DEESE AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... LOW CIGS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO ALL TERMINALS WITH IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. SLOW CLEARING THEREAFTER AND KEEP MVFR IN FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO NEXT ROUND OF TSRA. BEST LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY TO THE WEST BUT BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WILL GO WITH BEST CHANCES FOR AHN AND MCN WITH A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO INCLUSION LATER TODAY FOR ATL. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON CIG DISSIPATION TIMING AND TSRA CHANCES. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS. DEESE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 60 50 ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 50 30 50 40 BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 64 / 60 50 50 50 CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 50 30 40 50 COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 50 20 30 40 GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 40 50 50 MACON 87 70 86 72 / 50 30 50 40 ROME 87 66 85 68 / 50 30 40 40 PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 50 30 40 40 VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 60 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
744 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE CONTENT. UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. DEESE LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF 2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY REALISTIC. 01 HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS. DEESE && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... LOW CIGS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO ALL TERMINALS WITH IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. SLOW CLEARING THEREAFTER AND KEEP MVFR IN FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO NEXT ROUND OF TSRA. BEST LIFT WILL BE LATE DAY TO THE WEST BUT BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WILL GO WITH BEST CHANCES FOR AHN AND MCN WITH A SECONDARY LINE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO INCLUSION LATER TODAY FOR ATL. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON CIG DISSIPATION TIMING AND TSRA CHANCES. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS. DEESE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 60 50 ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 50 30 50 40 BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 64 / 60 50 50 50 CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 50 30 40 50 COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 50 20 30 40 GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 40 50 50 MACON 87 70 86 72 / 50 30 50 40 ROME 87 66 85 68 / 50 30 40 40 PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 50 30 40 40 VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 60 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEESE LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
950 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A BERMUDA RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED UPA PTTN CONTS TDA...WITH A DP TROF AXIS IN THE MIDWEST AND RDGG IN THE WRN ATLC. ERN SEABRD IN MOIST SLY FLOW...W/ VARIOUS S/WVS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSTMS. WHILE AMS SATD /PER 12Z LWX RAOB/...PWAT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PROGGED. NONETHELESS...ANY SHRA/STORM WL HV HIGH WATER CONTENT...AND MULT STORMS WL HV HIGH THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GDNC. WL HOLD ONTO FLASH FLOOD WATCH LINEUP AS IT STANDS ATTM. RGNL RADAR DEPCITS SHRA/STORMS SRRNDG AREA...W/O MUCH ACTIVITY W/IN CWFA ATTM /ASIDE FM THE CHSPK BAY/. HWVR...THERE/S A SLUG OF MSTR IN S-CENTRL VA ATTM TRACKING NWD. HRRR SEEMS TO HV THIS AREA PEGGED FAIRLY WELL...ALTHO IT MAY BE A PINCH TOO FAST. HV THIS FEATURE AFFECTING CWFA DURING THE MIDDAY HRS. ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES...AMS WL THEN HV THE CHC TO DSTBLZ. HV DECENT MID-UPR LVL FLOW PRESENT...SPCLY FOR ELY JULY...YIELDING BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 30 KT. SEE POCKET OF DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR LOOP THAT CUD BE PROBLEMATIC IF IT GETS HERE. THEREFORE...WL BE TRANSITIONING FM A WIDER AREA OF RAIN TO A HIT OR MISS TSRA THREAT MID-LT AFTN...AND CONT THAT SCENARIO THRU THE EVNG. POPS WL BE LWR THAN MIDDAY...BUT STILL QUITE HIGH. PAST CPL NGTS HV EXHIBITED A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE PCPN. WL HOLD ONTO THAT THOUGHT FOR NOW. ANY S/WVS CUD MIX UP THAT GAME PLAN IN A HURRY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AFTER TODAY`S CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE...TUESDAY WILL BE SPREAD A BIT MORE THINLY OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE DAYTIME HRS...BUT THE OVERHEAD COLUMN WILL BE EVEN MORE MOIST AND THEREFORE MORE STABLE. PWATS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON MONDAY...SO ISOLATED FLOODING WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY...AND POSSIBLY A DEGREE/TWO LOWER. PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST AND A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED IN A ZONE OF HIGH MOISTURE DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA RIDGE AND LIFT FROM SHORTWAVES TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE RETROGRADED WEST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 INCHES PLUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE AXES/BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SET UP...AND WILL NEED TO RESOLVE THIS WITH TIME. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP/WEAKEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE RIBBON OF HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO THE WEST AND MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. BUT EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR AT LEAST DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA FOR CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE IT WILL BE WARM WITH MAXIMA AROUND 90...CWA MAY ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO SHORTWAVES THAT COULD FIRE CONVECTION PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VRBL FLGT CONDS ACRS THE AREA...W/ NMRS MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS. RESTRICTIONS MAY BE A LTL MORE PERSISTENT TWD MIDDAY AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS APPROACH FM S-CENTRL VA. BYD THAT...A TSRA THREAT REMAINS BUT IT/LL BE MORE HIT OR MISS...MAKING TIMING FOR A SPECIFIC POINT DFCLT. LTL CHG TO OVERALL PTTN THRU TUE NGT. VSBYS MAY DROP QUICKLY BLO IFR W/IN ANY STORM...BUT SHUDNT LAST FOR A PROLONGED DURATION. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE WEEK AS A BERMUDA RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST. WITH HIGH MOISTURE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS/QUICK VSBY REDUCTIONS CAN OCCUR IN SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...COULD ALSO DEAL WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS. && .MARINE... SLY CHANNELING XPCTD UP THE CHSPK BAY TDA-TNGT. GRADIENT WINDS MAY BE INTERRUPTED BY SHRA/TSRA...AS IS OCCURING OVER BAY ATTM. HV SCA IN EFFECT...AND NO PLANS TO CHG THAT. ANOTHER CONCERN WL BE THE LCL WIND THREAT W/IN ANY STORM. FOR THAT MATTER...WUDNT BE WILLING TO RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. SMW/S LKLY AT SOME POINT TAFTN-TNGT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE DURING THE LATE WEEK...SO SHRA/TSRA MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY SHRA/TSRA OF COURSE COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH POSSIBLE SCA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT GRADIENT MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL DEPARTURES CONTINUE AT 1/2 TO 1 FT THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SITES EXCEEDED THEIR CAUTION STAGE WITH THE OVERNIGHT TIDE CYCLE... BUT ALL SITES REMAINED BELOW FLOOD. THE DAYTIME TIDE CYCLE IS THE LOWER ONE...AND WITH ANOMALIES FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIC. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SUBSEQUENT CYCLE TONIGHT WILL BE OF MORE CONCERN... AND COULD BE CLOSE TO MINOR THRESHOLDS AT SENSITIVE LOCATIONS /SUCH AS ANNAPOLIS...WITH HIGH TIDE AT 158 AM/. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OVERALL CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK...SO THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST DAILY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DCZ001. MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>007-009>011- 013-014-016>018. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ042-050>057-501- 502. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537- 540>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-539. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530- 538. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GMS/BPP NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...GMS/BPP LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...HTS/BPP MARINE...HTS/BPP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
922 AM MDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE. WEAK SHORTWAVES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER WEAK SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO SKY COVER BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. GILCHRIST PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. THE 01/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING. LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LIMITED OTHER THAN THOSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS. THE ECMWF IS JUST A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE AS IS THE GFS. EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH A WAVE INTO THE CWA YESTERDAY INTO YESTERDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...FELT COMFORTABLE INSERTING A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY...LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EAST. WILL GO WITH LOWER HIGHS THERE ANYWAY GIVEN THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES CLOSER TO THE CWA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SUPPRESSION OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A MUCH GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE IN A RANGE OF +22C TO +25C ACROSS THE CWA. THIS EASILY SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW AREAS PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM...AND WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 90S. WEDNESDAY PRESENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS AIR FLOWS DOWN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE CWA. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +24C AND +30C TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 90 OR ABOVE DURING THE AFTERNOON VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. ALSO...GIVEN WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WARMER START TO BEGIN WITH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN MAKING FOR A VERY HOT DAY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH FULL VERTICAL MIXING...MID AND UPPER 90S ARE A POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION. WILL NOT GET OVERLY CARRIED AWAY JUST YET AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY PUT A CEILING ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB. THE LATEST NAM BRINGS IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH COULD SET OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRY HOWEVER FOR THE PERIOD. INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL ASCENT WHEN NORTHEAST MONTANA WINDS UP TO THE LEFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH SUCH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...AS A WAVE APPROACHES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND SO INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. IF ANYTHING ELSE...CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS COULD ALSO RESULT IN PUTTING A CAP ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN A FEW PLACES. THUS...EXPECT BROADLY MID 90S ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...IN AREAS WHERE FULL VERTICAL MIXING IS REALIZED...AND CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IS MINIMIZED...CAN EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE UPPER 90S. WHILE A FEW MODELS POINT OUT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF UPPER 90S BEING MORE WIDESPREAD...SOME OF THE RELIABLE MODEL BLENDS AND BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL BLENDS POINT MORE TOWARD MID 90S. THEREFORE...LEANED TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FURTHER FOR A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS IT IS STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS OUT. MALIAWCO .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE. THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MONTANA BY SATURDAY. WILL SEE FREQUENT SHORTWAVES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A COOLER AND AT TIMES AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TO THE FORECAST AREA THAT COULD LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BECOME DIFFICULT TO TIME IN THIS PATTERN AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME INSTABILITY BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. WILL GENERALLY BROADBRUSH FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. FORRESTER && .AVIATION... FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR. IMPACTS: AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. AREA WINDS: EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KGGW... WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR OTHER TERMINALS. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN QUEBEC ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW YORK TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TODAY AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SLOW MOVING STORMS AND A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMALS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE MUGGY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE WEST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEP 500 MB TROF DIPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SSW FLOW ALOFT. IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOW THIS PICKING UP MOISTURE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND LIFTING IT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS WHERE ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS. FOR THE MOST PART...THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROF AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LIONS SHARE OF THIS MOISTURE TO OUR EAST TODAY. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS ALL POINT TO THE GREATEST QPFS ACROSS EASTERN PA/NY...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NOW EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RADAR TREND SUGGEST THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK. WHILE THE LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY MISS WESTERN NEW YORK...THERE IS A MORE SUBTLE FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...EXTENDING BACK TO CENTRAL OHIO. 06Z RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT NOW IT CAPTURES BOTH AREAS SEPARATELY...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF MOST RUNS OF THE HRRR. BECAUSE THESE LATTER MODELS ARE MATCHING RADAR TRENDS BETTER THAN OLDER RUNS...SUSPECT THEY ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON SUBTLE WAVES OF MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF THE GULF. THE FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT...WITH 700 MB WINDS ONLY 10 KNOTS. THEREFORE...STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STALL ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. WHILE GRID-SCALE QPFS FOR TODAY ONLY PEAK AT AN INCH...STALLED STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. BECAUSE OF THIS RISK...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM SE-NW TODAY...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD LIFT EAST OF THE REGION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE WHILE BRINGING THE HEAVIEST RAINS JUST TO OUR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SLIGHTLY WHEN COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE EXIT OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF MOISTURE. WHILE IT IS TOO FAR TO BE TRACED ON SATELLITE...ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE LIKELY...AND WITH THE SURFACE TROF LIKELY TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST...ANY WAVE WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF CROSSING OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD POSE ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS TIME PERIOD AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SUCH THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD. TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO START THE DAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF WNY AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AS THE LIKELIEST PLACE FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SATURATED GROUND...MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION WHICH WILL ALSO PUSH THE SURFACE TROF AXIS FURTHER WEST. WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. ON WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS BY WEDNESDAY CLIMB BACK UPWARDS TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME FORMING GIVING THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW. TRADITIONALLY THESE LAKE BREEZES WILL PLACE CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WILL PLACE LIKELY POPS HERE WHILE HOLDING THE REMAINING AREAS UNDER A CHANCE POP. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OF THE LAKE BREEZES DIMINISH THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BETWEEN 14 AND 16C ACROSS THE CWA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT NIGHT TIME...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND A POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ON THURSDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD PWATS WILL CLIMB UPWARDS TOWARDS 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ONTARIO WILL BE MORE LIKELY THURSDAY...WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING A STABLE AIRMASS INLAND LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE OPEN WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS ALLOWS THE BERMUDA HIGH TO PRESS FARTHER INLAND. THIS PUSH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BACK THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND SHIFT THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI. WILL STILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE BREEZES MAY TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THIS MOISTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY START TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING A HEIGHTEN RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THOUGH WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD...AND HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD TO AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND SOME INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES... VFR CONDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING. THE LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WILL LIFT NORTHWEST BRINGING THE MVFR CONDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FURTHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO RESULT IN MOSTLY MVFR CIGS. CONDS AT KJHW WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR WITH FOG. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR EACH DAY. && .MARINE... A MODEST NE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP BUILD WAVES ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WEST-CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. EXPECT SCA CRITERIA ON WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND LK ERIE WEST OF DUNKIRK FOR WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ019>021. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/LEVAN NEAR TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...THOMAS AVIATION...APFFEL/LEVAN MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
730 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN QUEBEC DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TODAY AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN SLOW MOVING STORMS AND A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMALS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE MUGGY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE WEST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DEEP 500 MB TROF DIPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SSW FLOW ALOFT. IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOW THIS PICKING UP MOISTURE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND LIFTING IT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS WHERE ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL FOCUS. FOR THE MOST PART...THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROF AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LIONS SHARE OF THIS MOISTURE TO OUR EAST TODAY. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS ALL POINT TO THE GREATEST QPFS ACROSS EASTERN PA/NY...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NOW EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RADAR TREND SUGGEST THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK. WHILE THE LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY MISS WESTERN NEW YORK...THERE IS A MORE SUBTLE FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...EXTENDING BACK TO CENTRAL OHIO. 06Z RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT NOW IT CAPTURES BOTH AREAS SEPARATELY...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF MOST RUNS OF THE HRRR. BECAUSE THESE LATTER MODELS ARE MATCHING RADAR TRENDS BETTER THAN OLDER RUNS...SUSPECT THEY ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON SUBTLE WAVES OF MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF THE GULF. THE FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT...WITH 700 MB WINDS ONLY 10 KNOTS. THEREFORE...STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STALL ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. WHILE GRID-SCALE QPFS FOR TODAY ONLY PEAK AT AN INCH...STALLED STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. BECAUSE OF THIS RISK...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM SE-NW TODAY...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD LIFT EAST OF THE REGION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE WHILE BRINGING THE HEAVIEST RAINS JUST TO OUR EAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S...AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SLIGHTLY WHEN COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE EXIT OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF MOISTURE. WHILE IT IS TOO FAR TO BE TRACED ON SATELLITE...ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE LIKELY...AND WITH THE SURFACE TROF LIKELY TO BE A BIT FURTHER WEST...ANY WAVE WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF CROSSING OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD POSE ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE LESS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS TIME PERIOD AN AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SUCH THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD. TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO START THE DAY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF WNY AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AS THE LIKELIEST PLACE FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SATURATED GROUND...MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WESTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION WHICH WILL ALSO PUSH THE SURFACE TROF AXIS FURTHER WEST. WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. ON WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PWATS BY WEDNESDAY CLIMB BACK UPWARDS TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME FORMING GIVING THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SOUTHWEST FLOW. TRADITIONALLY THESE LAKE BREEZES WILL PLACE CONVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WILL PLACE LIKELY POPS HERE WHILE HOLDING THE REMAINING AREAS UNDER A CHANCE POP. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OF THE LAKE BREEZES DIMINISH THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BETWEEN 14 AND 16C ACROSS THE CWA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH AT NIGHT TIME...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND A POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ON THURSDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD PWATS WILL CLIMB UPWARDS TOWARDS 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ONTARIO WILL BE MORE LIKELY THURSDAY...WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING A STABLE AIRMASS INLAND LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE OPEN WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS ALLOWS THE BERMUDA HIGH TO PRESS FARTHER INLAND. THIS PUSH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BACK THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND SHIFT THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI. WILL STILL HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE BREEZES MAY TRIGGER AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THIS MOISTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY START TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING A HEIGHTEN RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THOUGH WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD...AND HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD TO AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD AND SOME INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR TODAY...EXPECT PRIMARILY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS...AS SHOWERS HELP A LOW CLOUD DECK EXPAND IN THE NE FLOW. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT FROM SE TO NW TODAY. THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE AT JHW...WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LESSER IMPACT ON THE OTHER TAF LOCATIONS...BUT MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER VSBY TO 3SM OR LESS IN MODERATE SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH CONTINUED LOW MOISTURE LIKELY TO RESULT IN MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR AT JHW...BUT A MODEST WIND SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR EACH DAY. && .MARINE... A MODEST NE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP BUILD WAVES ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WEST-CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA BRIEFLY TODAY ON WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS MARGINAL ON LAKE ERIE...BUT CONSIDERING POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT...WILL ISSUE AN SCA FOR LAKE ERIE WEST OF DUNKIRK...MAINLY FOR WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ019>021. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...APFFEL SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...THOMAS AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
725 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES. NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT. CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED. HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 400 AM EDT UPDATE... THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPS. 1145 AM EDT UPDATE... MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND. LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST /LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 700 AM EDT UPDATE... A DIFFICULT FORECAST CONTINUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MVFR WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS ARE ENGULFED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI... VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... 4 PM UPDATE... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ALONG THE TERRAIN FROM LUZERNE COUNTY PA NE TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. FLASH FLOODING BEING REPORTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SLOWLY DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS ALBANY. ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING OTHER RIVER POINTS WILL FLOOD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE POINTS ON THE SUSQUEHANNA AND AT HEADWATER POINTS OF THE NORTH BRANCH AND DELAWARE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE PA AND IN NY, CATSKILLS, NORTH BRANCH AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. RIVERS RUNNING HIGH. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PWATS. MORE COVERAGE THAN TODAY OR YESTERDAY. MODELS KEYING ON A BAND OF AT LEAST AN INCH IN THE WATCH AREA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-036-037- 044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...KAH/MDP AVIATION...KAH HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
933 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND AN UPDATE OF LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES WERE COSMETIC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST...A SUNNY AND QUIET MONDAY IS FORECAST. GIVEN LITTLE SPREAD IN 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WILL UTILIZE A BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE 07 UTC HRRR WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC 4KM WRF...AND 00 UTC NAM/GFS AND 03 UTC SREF. ALL DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET WITH A CLEAR AND QUIET MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK. 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE LAS VEGAS CENTERED RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. BY LATE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DIRECT MORE VIGOROUS MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING OF THE STRONGEST LOW AMONG 00 UTC ECMWF/GEFS/GFS/GEM GLOBAL DIFFERS BY UP TO 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S AS THE POLAR FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...SCHECK AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES WERE COSMETIC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST...A SUNNY AND QUIET MONDAY IS FORECAST. GIVEN LITTLE SPREAD IN 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WILL UTILIZE A BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE 07 UTC HRRR WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC 4KM WRF...AND 00 UTC NAM/GFS AND 03 UTC SREF. ALL DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET WITH A CLEAR AND QUIET MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK. 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE LAS VEGAS CENTERED RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. BY LATE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DIRECT MORE VIGOROUS MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING OF THE STRONGEST LOW AMONG 00 UTC ECMWF/GEFS/GFS/GEM GLOBAL DIFFERS BY UP TO 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S AS THE POLAR FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SCHECK SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...SCHECK AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1132 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT RUNS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WESTERN CWA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. THE QUASI STNRY-HARD TO FIND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRETTY MUCH BISECTS THE STATE FROM NE TO SW. RADAR SHOWS THE SLOW MOVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA. WITH THE JET ENTRANCE REGION REMAINING IN PLACE...AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BEING PRETTY LOW...IT ARGUES FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW HARD AREAS IN THE WARNING GOT HIT LATE LAST WEEK. THE BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS THE RELENTLESS SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING BASICALLY SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE LATEST SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO BE ENTERING THE CAROLINAS...WHICH IS HELPING INFLUENCE A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...EYES ARE ON A NEW AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU VIRGINIA HEADING FOR MY SRN ZONES AS THE BROKEN RECORD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES. FROM EARLIER... ANOMALOUSLY HIGH - 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM AREAS OF TRAINING SHRA/TSRA. THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WELL DEFINED JET ENTRANCE REGION SITUATED ACROSS PENN AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION AND HELP TO BLOSSOM/MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE A TONGUE OF HIGH 925-850 MB THETA-E AIR IS RIDES NWWD AND IS LIFTED ABOVE THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHICALLY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING TRAINING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES....AND PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT IN CENTRAL PENN. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... FAVORABLE...THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH/WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER OVER THE MIDDLE MISS VALLEY RETROGRADES A BIT...AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVES /AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJS...PROVIDING ENHANCED MESOSCALE UVVEL/ LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN A TEMPORARY TREND TWD DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...AND LIGHTER SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-10Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4-5 TENTHS...ACCOUNTING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN. IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT. DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... TAFS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM WITH WILDLY FLUCTUATING CEILINGS AND VIZ DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE AND ARE NOT. CAN EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR/IFR OVER NWRN AREAS WHERE RAIN IS ONLY SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...ANYTHING FROM VFR TO IFR AS NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM AND MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010>012- 017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
747 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT RUNS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WESTERN CWA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBGM...TO KSEG AND KHGR AT 11Z. THIS FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH - 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/ TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM AREAS OF TRAINING SHRA/TSRA. THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WELL DEFINED JET ENTRANCE REGION SITUATED ACROSS PENN AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION AND HELP TO BLOSSOM/MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE A TONGUE OF HIGH 925-850 MB THETA-E AIR IS RIDES NWWD AND IS LIFTED ABOVE THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHICALLY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING TRAINING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES....AND PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT IN CENTRAL PENN. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... FAVORABLE...THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH/WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER OVER THE MIDDLE MISS VALLEY RETROGRADES A BIT...AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVES /AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJS...PROVIDING ENHANCED MESOSCALE UVVEL/ LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN A TEMPORARY TREND TWD DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...AND LIGHTER SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-10Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4-5 TENTHS...ACCOUNTING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN. IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT. DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS FOR THE 01/12Z CYCLE. NMRS SHOWERS WITH OCNL/LCL +TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACRS THE AIRSPACE TDY AS SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF MS VLY UPPER TROUGH AND WRN ATLC RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANNELING OF DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW FROM THE APPLCHNS TO THE EAST COAST...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AXIS OF VERY HIGH MSTR. EXPECT THE LOCALLY HVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH - IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TDY. THUS HAVE INDICATED VCSH/VCTS/SHRA IN ALL TAFS GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WDSPRD CVRG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IN THIS PATTERN EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR/MVFR EARLY GIVING WAY TO PM MVFR/VFR. IFR VIS WILL BE LKLY IN ANY +RA. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010>012- 017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
721 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT RUNS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WESTERN CWA...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBGM...TO KSEG AND KHGR AT 11Z. THIS FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH - 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/ TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM AREAS OF TRAINING SHRA/TSRA. THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WELL DEFINED JET ENTRANCE REGION SITUATED ACROSS PENN AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION AND HELP TO BLOSSOM/MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE A TONGUE OF HIGH 925-850 MB THETA-E AIR IS RIDES NWWD AND IS LIFTED ABOVE THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHICALLY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING TRAINING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES....AND PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT IN CENTRAL PENN. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... FAVORABLE...THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH/WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER OVER THE MIDDLE MISS VALLEY RETROGRADES A BIT...AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVES /AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJS...PROVIDING ENHANCED MESOSCALE UVVEL/ LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN A TEMPORARY TREND TWD DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...AND LIGHTER SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-10Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4-5 TENTHS...ACCOUNTING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN. IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT. DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NMRS SHOWERS WITH OCNL +TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACRS THE AIRSPACE TDY AS SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF MS VLY UPPER TROUGH AND WRN ATLC RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANNELING OF DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW FROM THE APPLCHNS TO THE EAST COAST...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AXIS OF VERY HIGH MSTR. EXPECT THE LOCALLY HVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH - IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TDY. THUS HAVE INDICATED VCSH/VCTS/SHRA IN ALL TAFS GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WDSPRD CVRG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IN THIS PATTERN EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR/MVFR EARLY GIVING WAY TO PM MVFR/VFR. IFR VIS WILL BE LKLY IN ANY +RA. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010>012- 017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
610 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE ANOTHER 2-3 LAYERS OF COUNTY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQUEHANNA...AND EXTENDED TIL 06Z TUESDAY. QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KELM TO KUNV AND KMRB... THE WESTERN EDGE OF 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/ WILL ALL COMBINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM RELATIVELY NARROW BANDS OF TRAINING SHRA/TSRA. THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WELL DEFINED JET ENTRANCE REGION SITUATED ACROSS PENN AND THE LOWER LAKES REGION AND HELP TO BLOSSOM A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING TRAINING SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES....AND PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT IN CENTRAL PENN. BASIN AVG RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1.5-2 INCHES EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM...DOWN TO ONLY AROUND 0.5 INCH ACROSS WARREN COUNTY. NARROW BANDS OF HEAVIER 3+ INCH AMTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN FOR ABOUT AN HOUR. TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL FALL ANOTHER FEW DEG F...REACHING A MID MORNING LOW IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THE WARM...EASTERN SIDE OF THE QUASI STNRY SFC FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... FAVORABLE...THERMALLY DIRECT CELL OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH/WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER OVER THE MIDDLE MISS VALLEY RETROGRADES A BIT...AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVES /AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJS...PROVIDING ENHANCED MESOSCALE UVVEL/ LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN A TEMPORARY TREND TWD DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE...AND LIGHTER SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-10Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4-5 TENTHS...ACCOUNTING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN. IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT. DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NMRS SHOWERS WITH OCNL +TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACRS THE AIRSPACE TDY AS SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF MS VLY UPPER TROUGH AND WRN ATLC RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANNELING OF DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW FROM THE APPLCHNS TO THE EAST COAST...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AXIS OF VERY HIGH MSTR. EXPECT THE LOCALLY HVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH - IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TDY. THUS HAVE INDICATED VCSH/VCTS/SHRA IN ALL TAFS GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WDSPRD CVRG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IN THIS PATTERN EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR/MVFR EARLY GIVING WAY TO PM MVFR/VFR. IFR VIS WILL BE LKLY IN ANY +RA. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ012-018-019- 026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
557 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP WARM...INCREASINGLY HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE ANOTHER 2-3 LAYERS OF COUNTY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQUEHANNA...AND EXTENDED TIL 06Z TUESDAY. QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KELM TO KUNV AND KMRB... THE WESTERN EDGE OF 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/ WILL ALL COMBINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM RELATIVELY NARROW BANDS OF TRAINING SHRA/TSRA. THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR HEAVY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS ON SMALL TRIBS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...EAST INTO SCHUYLKILL CTY. THE TAIL END OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES /ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA/ APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING NWD ACROSS LANCASTER CTY ATTM. THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SERN NEW YORK. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST...THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LOWER AND 0.25 INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z. TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL FALL ANOTHER FEW DEG F...REACHING A MID MORNING LOW IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THE WARM...EASTERN SIDE OF THE QUASI STNRY SFC FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... A SECOND...POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP THE APPALACHIANS WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MONDAY. SREF AND GEFS BOTH BRING A PWAT ANOMALY OF 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH ENS MEAN QPF BTWN NOW AND THIS AFTN IS A RELATIVELY MODEST 1 INCH OR SO ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES APPEAR VERY LIKELY BASED ON OPER MDL QPF AND PWAT ANOMALIES. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL BTWN 12Z-18Z OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA...AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST 01/00Z OPER AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY LOCATED SOMEWHERE BTWN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY. FFG REMAINS LOW IN THIS AREA...AND SOME MDL DATA PLACES FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN RIGHT IN THIS AREA. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4KM. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN. HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT. DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NMRS SHOWERS WITH OCNL +TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACRS THE AIRSPACE TDY AS SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF MS VLY UPPER TROUGH AND WRN ATLC RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANNELING OF DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW FROM THE APPLCHNS TO THE EAST COAST...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AXIS OF VERY HIGH MSTR. EXPECT THE LOCALLY HVY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH - IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TDY. THUS HAVE INDICATED VCSH/VCTS/SHRA IN ALL TAFS GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WDSPRD CVRG...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. IN THIS PATTERN EXPECT CIGS AND VIS TO BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR/MVFR EARLY GIVING WAY TO PM MVFR/VFR. IFR VIS WILL BE LKLY IN ANY +RA. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...A.M. IFR/MVFR. P.M. MVFR/VFR. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ012-018-019- 026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
315 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP WARM...INCREASINGLY HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED WWD TO INCLUDE ANOTHER 2-3 LAYERS OF COUNTY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND WEST BRANCH VALLEY OF THE SUSQUEHANNA...AND EXTENDED TIL 06Z TUESDAY. QUASI SNTRY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KELM TO KUNV AND KMRB... THE WESTERN EDGE OF 2 INCH PWAT AIR...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT BENEATH THE RR QUAD OF A 70-80 KT JET /FROM LAKE ERIE NE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/ WILL ALL COMBINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FROM RELATIVELY NARROW BANDS OF TRAINING SHRA/TSRA. THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING NWD THROUGH THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE BEST CHC FOR HEAVY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS ON SMALL TRIBS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...EAST INTO SCHUYLKILL CTY. THE TAIL END OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES /ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA/ APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING NWD ACROSS LANCASTER CTY ATTM. THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SERN NEW YORK. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST...THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LOWER AND 0.25 INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z. TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL FALL ANOTHER FEW DEG F...REACHING A MID MORNING LOW IN THE U50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THE WARM...EASTERN SIDE OF THE QUASI STNRY SFC FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... A SECOND...POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP THE APPALACHIANS WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MONDAY. SREF AND GEFS BOTH BRING A PWAT ANOMALY OF 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH ENS MEAN QPF BTWN NOW AND THIS AFTN IS A RELATIVELY MODEST 1 INCH OR SO ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...LOCALIZED AMTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES APPEAR VERY LIKELY BASED ON OPER MDL QPF AND PWAT ANOMALIES. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL BTWN 12Z-18Z OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA...AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT LL JET/PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST 01/00Z OPER AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY LOCATED SOMEWHERE BTWN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY. FFG REMAINS LOW IN THIS AREA...AND SOME MDL DATA PLACES FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN RIGHT IN THIS AREA. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4KM. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPS BLW SEASONAL NORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AND LCLS QUITE LOW...ESP ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE WHERE DWPTS WILL BE NR 70F. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 20-25 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO SSW ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH 0-1KM ML CAPES OF 100-1300 J/KG TO CREATE POCKETS OF EHI AS HIGH AS 1.5 M2/S2...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RORTAING UPDRAFTS OF A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN. HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT. DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...GIVEN ISOLATED STORMS LIFTING NORTH FROM BWI. AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SEPERATES THE NE TO N FLOW NEAR THE LAKES FROM THE S TO SE FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A DAILY CHC OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH PW VALUES WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLDS LATE EACH NIGHT. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT COULD RESULT AS THE RIDGE EDGES WESTWARD SOME EACH DAY...BUT THIS MAY CAUSE THE MOST WIDSPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE FAR WESTERN AREAS AS WELL. FOR MONDAY...WENT WITH VCSH DURING THE AFT. AREAS THAT GET THE MOST HEATING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR. HAVE NOT HAD MUCH IN THE WAY OF RIDGE DANCERS AT NIGHT SO FAR... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH MOUNTAIN...BUT WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS THIS WEEK WITH ANY OF THE EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. OUTLOOK... WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR...BUT STILL WITH AREAS OF LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ012-018-019- 026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1102 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK APPROACHES...THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR EAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1000 AM UPDATE...NVA BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROF SEEN IN WV IMAGERY COMBINED WITH COOL CONDITIONS UNDER LOW STRATUS SEEM TO HAVE STIFLED CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY. LATEST MESO MODEL RUNS INDICATE ONLY ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTN...WITH THE MTNS FAVORED AS USUAL. NEW 12Z NAM AS WELL AS 11Z HRRR INDICATE SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM EAST TN LATE THIS AFTN...APPARENTLY FORCED BY LOBES OF VORT ON E SIDE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. DESPITE THE CLOUDS MODEL CAPES NEAR 1000 J STILL SHOWN OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING PEAK HEATING. NEW POPS SHOW SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN BECOMING NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER FORCING RETURNS. REVISED TEMP TRENDS...ADJUSTING HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY. AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...DIVIDING RICH ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FROM SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER TN RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW A RELATIVE DRY SLOT MOVING NORTH OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TODAY IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER VORT LOBE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONFIRMS THIS. THIS DRY SLOT MAY PROVIDE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IN THE FOOTHILLS...BUT WITH GREATER MOISTURE TO THE EAST...A LULL SEEMS LESS CERTAIN IN THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR...AND THE FLOOD WATCH THERE WILL BE MAINTAINED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...AS WELL AS SOME UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE ROUNDS THE UPPER LOW. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A POP MAXIMA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS...AND ANOTHER IN THE PIEDMONT NEAR A RIVER OF MOISTURE FED FORM THE SOUTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. CAPE WILL BE BEST IN THE EAST...AND SHEAR BEST IN THE WEST...BUT ENOUGH OVERLAP WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY IN UNDER BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CLOUDS COVER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN A MOIST AIR MASS UNDER CLOUDS COVER. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 145 AM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A STRONG...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE A FOUND A RIVER OF EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST AIR. TUE AND TUE NIGHT THE GFS KEEPS THE STRONGEST LLVL WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS IS WHERE IT GENERATES THE HEAVIEST PCPN AS WELL. IT LIFTS THIS LLVL JET NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OF VIRGINIA TUE NIGHT WHILE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA VEERS AROUND TO THE SSW. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT MUCH LIKE WHAT WE ARE SEEING TONIGHT...THE FAVORED TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS ACTIVITY MIGHT BE A LITTLE EAST OF OUR FA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING UPSLOPE FLOW AND WE WILL STILL BE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER JET WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. WHILE I HOPE WE MISS MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...THIS IS BY NO MEANS A SURE BET. EVEN IN THE BEST CASE WE WOULD STILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE BOTH SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. UNFORTUNATELY THIS PUTS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BUSINESS END OF THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE AND CORE OF THE STRONGEST LLVL WINDS ALONG WITH PW/S SURGING WELL OVER 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THOSE LLVL WINDS ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS...BUT THAT/S PLENTY TO HELP DEVELOP HEAVY RAIN IN THIS KIND OF TROPICAL PATTERN. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN SOME PARTS OF THE FA. I/VE RAISED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT AND ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. IN FACT...I RAN THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. AT SOME POINT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER TO THE WEST,..BUT THAT PROBABLY WON/T HAPPEN UNTIL LATER TODAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON THURSDAY WITH A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THAT WILL BE SLOW TO DISSOLVE. BY NEW DAY 7 ON SUN...THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED H5 LOW AND ITS PARENT UPPER TROF WILL STILL LIKELY BE OBSERVABLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THIS IMPLIES THAT THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGES WILL MAINTAIN THEIR STRUCTURE TO SOME DEGREE BEYOND NEW DAY 7...THEREBY LEAVING US IN MORE OF A FLAT...ZONAL PATTERN BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. AT THE SFC...NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE PERIOD AS THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINS ITS CONTROL OVER THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THRU NEW DAY 7. MOIST SELY FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT. AS THE BERMUDA HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES WESTWARD...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NW THRU THE PERIOD AND BY NEW DAY 7...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WITH THAT SAID...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST. I DO TAPER OFF POPS ON SAT AND SUN TO CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE. FLOODING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN THRU THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL START OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR CLIMO AS THICKNESSES INCREASE AND OVERALL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR A TIME THIS MRNG THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE STRATUS DECK IS BREAKING UP WITH MIXING. NEWEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTN WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW PROMOTING INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO HINTS AT A SECOND ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING. INCLUDED A PROB30 MVFR TSRA FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST. ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED A LULL IN PRECIPITATION TODAY. HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR CIGS AND VSBY TOWARD DAWN ON TUESDAY. WINDS WIL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. OUTLOOK...NUMEROUS...MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. WIDESPREAD MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNUSUALLY MOIST. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z KCLT HIGH 93% HIGH 94% HIGH 82% HIGH 100% KGSP HIGH 95% HIGH 97% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% KAVL HIGH 97% HIGH 98% HIGH 84% HIGH 100% KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 97% MED 72% HIGH 100% KGMU HIGH 97% HIGH 97% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% KAND HIGH 98% HIGH 97% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-037- 056-057-069>072-082. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009-014. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY SHORT TERM...MCAVOY LONG TERM...MCAVOY AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE. && .DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ELSEWHERE. MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SUPPORTS A GENERALLY SWLY STORM MOVEMENT INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD INTO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS WRN SECTIONS. AS WAS THE CASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE 18Z RUC HRRR DEVELOPS ADDITIONAL PRECIP ECHOES ACROSS ERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION THRU WED. UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SWD INTO ARIZONA BY SAT. AS WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...THERE WERE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE 01/12Z GFS/ECMWF PARTICULARLY REGARDING QPF/S. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 01/12Z ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH DEPICTING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED QPF/S DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS CONTINUITY...HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD PARTICULARLY WED EVENING AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ASSUMING AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WED EVENING... THUR MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUN-MON. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL JUSTIFY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM TUCSON EWD WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. DAYTIME TEMPS TUE AND CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z... EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA/-SHRA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MOVEMENT WILL GENERALLY BE NE-SW. GUSTS TO 60 KTS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN BLDU ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. ANOTHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED EAST MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE HEAVIEST IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD SPREAD TO SOME VALLEY AREAS. STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN A MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON BF/MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
315 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY... A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF -SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW. AT 1230PM ONE OF THESE SHORT WVS IS EXITING THE E PTNS OF THE FCA...WMFNT MOISTURE/-SHRA SURGES ARE DEVELOPING FM W/CNTRL NYS TWRD ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF AREA WILL BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS TILL DIURNALLY CONVECTION FIRES IN S. WMFNT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALREADY WATER LOGGED AREAS OF W MHWK VLY AND W ADNDKS. ATM HRRR HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED ATTM. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE NEXT SHORT WV COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS OVERSPREADING RGN AFT 21UTC....PARTICULARLY N OF MSV-BRATTLEBORO LN. WRF HAS FRONTAL OUTBREAK A TAD FURTHER S. WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BYND. WITH RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT REMAIN. WMFMT SURGES (OVERRUNNING) PCPN MAX AREA FM ADIRONDACKS INTO SVT OVERNIGHT ON NAM...GFS ACROSS MOST OF FCA...GEM TRACKS IT BWTN. WHILE TIMING AND LOCALES MAY BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...THE THREAT OF SURGES OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N ADIRONDACKS. TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN ASSOC WITH WMFNTL/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL AT. WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP. NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS. LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DURING THE EFP MAJOR W ATLC ANTICYCLONE AT SFC AND 500HPA (KNOWN AS THE BERMUDA HIGH) RETROGRADES TO THE ATLC SEABOARD..AS THE 500HPA TROF RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS. THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FCA FRI...THE GFS SHIFTS IT OUT OF THE FCA FOR THE WEEKEND AND BACK MONDAY. THE GEM DISPLACES IT FURTHER N AND W TO W PERIPHERY...AND ECMWF HAS IT DRIFTING IN AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE VARIABLE SUNSHINE...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CHC MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS. THE THREAT WILL BE LEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S TO ARND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED ABOVE 6 SM...CIGS REMAINS MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES FOR EARLY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND THERE IS NOT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAINLY LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS. STILL...FLYING CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN MVFR WITH SOME BKN LOWER CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR MOST OF THE TIME. OUTLOOK... TUE PM-SAT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .HYDROLOGY... PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS. THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74 INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK IN 1862. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025. VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...SNYDER SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...SNYDER AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER HYDROLOGY...11 CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY... A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF -SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW. AT 1230PM ONE OF THESE SHORT WVS IS EXITING THE E PTNS OF THE FCA...WMFNT MOISTURE/-SHRA SURGES ARE DEVELOPING FM W/CNTRL NYS TWRD ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF AREA WILL BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS TILL DIURNALLY CONVECTION FIRES IN S. WMFNT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALREADY WATER LOGGED AREAS OF W MHWK VLY AND W ADNDKS. ATM HRRR HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED ATTM. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE NEXT SHORT WV COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS OVERSPREADING RGN AFT 21UTC....PARTICULARLY N OF MSV-BRATTLEBORO LN. WRF HAS FRONTAL OUTBREAK A TAD FURTHER S. WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BYND. WITH RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT REMAIN. WMFMT SURGES (OVERRUNNING) PCPN MAX AREA FM ADIRONDACKS INTO SVT OVERNIGHT ON NAM...GFS ACROSS MOST OF FCA...GEM TRACKS IT BWTN. WHILE TIMING AND LOCALES MAY BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...THE THREAT OF SURGES OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N ADIRONDACKS. TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN ASSOC WITH WMFNTL/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL AT. WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP. NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS. LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES THE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A BERMUDA HIGH INFLUENCING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. A DECREASING TREND IN THE POPS EXTENDS INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND...AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. FRI TO SAT...A BROKEN RECORD...REPEAT PATTERN OF ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION TO ENTER THE WEEKEND. THE POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES ON SATURDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOW CHC MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MAKING PROGRESS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MAINLY 80S AND L90S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO L70S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLE OR OPPRESSIVE. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA...AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GFS/ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING ZONAL. THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO BUILDS WESTWARD AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS STILL AN ISOLD THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS. SFC DEWPTS MAY DROP IN THE LOWER TO M60S WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE...AS HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHS PEAKS. LOWS IN THE 60S WILL PREVAIL. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH PCPN STILL POTENTIALLY ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS. NO IMMEDIATE RELIEF WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE VSBYS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED ABOVE 6 SM...CIGS REMAINS MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES FOR EARLY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND THERE IS NOT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MAINLY LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS. STILL...FLYING CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN MVFR WITH SOME BKN LOWER CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS FOR MOST OF THE TIME. OUTLOOK... TUE PM-SAT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION A LITTLE. && .HYDROLOGY... PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS. THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74 INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK IN 1862. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025. VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...SNYDER SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...11/NAS HYDROLOGY...11 CLIMATE...WFO ALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY... A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF -SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW. AT 1230PM ONE OF THESE SHORT WVS IS EXITING THE E PTNS OF THE FCA...WMFNT MOISTURE/-SHRA SURGES ARE DEVELOPING FM W/CNTRL NYS TWRD ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF AREA WILL BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS TILL DIURNALLY CONVECTION FIRES IN S. WMFNT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALREADY WATER LOGGED AREAS OF W MHWK VLY AND W ADNDKS. ATM HRRR HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED ATTM. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE NEXT SHORT WV COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS OVERSPREADING RGN AFT 21UTC....PARTICULARLY N OF MSV-BRATTLEBORO LN. WRF HAS FRONTAL OUTBREAK A TAD FURTHER S. WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BYND. WITH RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND WMFNT REMAIN. WMFMT SURGES (OVERRUNNING) PCPN MAX AREA FM ADIRONDACKS INTO SVT OVERNIGHT ON NAM...GFS ACROSS MOST OF FCA...GEM TRACKS IT BWTN. WHILE TIMING AND LOCALES MAY BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...THE THREAT OF SURGES OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N ADIRONDACKS. TUES THE WMFNT CONTINUES N AND EXITS THE FCA BY 00UTC WED. PCPN ASSOC WITH WMFNTL/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LARGELY ACROSS N TIER...WHILE BULK OF FCA IS IN OR ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE SCT-BKN SHRA/TSTMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BCM MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS AND TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABV MONDAYS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... FOR THE MOST PART THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN RH AND QPF...TWO THINGS MODELS DRIVEN BY PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR CONVECTION DON`T DO ESPECIALLY WELL AT. WHILE THE WMFNT HAS LARGELY DEPARTED THE FCA...THE RICH TROPICAL PLUME LINGERS ALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW HOVER AROUND 2.O INCHES DECREASING TO 1.5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TUES NT THE WMFNT WILL STILL BE NR N AND W TIER...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY...ELSEWHERE THE SHRA/TSTM THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD BCMS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY IN PLACE...FCA IN WM SECTOR...BERMUDA HIGH BACKING ONTO E SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD....MORNING CLOUDS WILL THIN...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BCM MORE COMMON EACH DAY AND AFTN SUN WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTMS. OVERALL POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN FM LIKELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO CHC BY THE 4TH OF JULY (THU). SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING UP. NIGHTS WILL STILL BE MUGGY AND WARM...EVEN BY MARYLAND STANDARDS. LOWS IN 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 80S...THUR THE MID 80S TO NR 90. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD...WHAT DOES FIRE WILL BE STRONGER AS CAPES WITH MORE SUN BEGIN APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THU. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES THE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A BERMUDA HIGH INFLUENCING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. A DECREASING TREND IN THE POPS EXTENDS INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND...AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. FRI TO SAT...A BROKEN RECORD...REPEAT PATTERN OF ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION TO ENTER THE WEEKEND. THE POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES ON SATURDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOW CHC MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MAKING PROGRESS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MAINLY 80S AND L90S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO L70S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLE OR OPPRESSIVE. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA...AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GFS/ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING ZONAL. THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO BUILDS WESTWARD AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS STILL AN ISOLD THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS. SFC DEWPTS MAY DROP IN THE LOWER TO M60S WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE...AS HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHS PEAKS. LOWS IN THE 60S WILL PREVAIL. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH PCPN STILL POTENTIALLY ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS. NO IMMEDIATE RELIEF WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE LATE MORNING KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. THE RAIN MAY BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER JUST BEFORE NOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. VSBYS WERE LOWERED IN THE IFR RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CIGS WERE KEPT IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KPSF. ALL THE TERMINALS MAY NEED IFR CIGS WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND IT HAS BEEN KEPT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW PROBS /30 PERCENT OR LESS/. THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TOO. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN MAY LESSEN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE SITES. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N/NE FROM KALB NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KTS...BUT VEER TO THE S AT KPOU AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION A LITTLE. && .HYDROLOGY... PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS. THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74 INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK IN 1862. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025. VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SNYDER NEAR TERM...SNYDER SHORT TERM...SNYDER LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...WASULA FIRE WEATHER...11/NAS HYDROLOGY...11 CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1239 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG IT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BY WEEKS END IT WILL PUSH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD WEST ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...KEEPING OUR WEATHER VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A GRADUALLY DECREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY... A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WMFNT IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR IN NY...EXTENDING NE TO THE MAINE COAST. AT 500 HPA A CUTOFF IS IN THE WESTERN OHIO VLY...WHILE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE RICH MOISTURE FEED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOUTS OF -SHRA WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SURGES ALONG THE WMFNT...AND PASSING SHORT WVS IN THE 500HPA FLOW. AT 1230PM ONE OF THESE SHORT WVS IS EXITING THE E PTNS OF THE FCA...WMFNT MOISTURE/-SHRA SURGES ARE DEVELOPING FM W/CNTRL NYS TWRD ADIRONDACKS. MOST OF AREA WILL BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS TILL DIURNALLY CONVECTION FIRES IN S. WMFNT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALREADY WATER LOGGED AREAS OF W MHWK VLY AND W ADNDKS. ATM HRRR HAS THE SITUATION WELL HANDLED ATTM. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE NEXT SHORT WV COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF -SHRA/SCT TSTMS OVERSPREADING RGN AFT 21UTC....PARTICULARLY N OF MSV-BRATTLEBORO LN. WRF HAS FRONTAL OUTBREAK A TAD FURTHER S. WITH ARND 2.0 INCH PW OVER REGION...THIS ATMOSPHERE IS RICH IN MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BYND. WITH RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF...LEADING TO RENEWED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TONIGHT THE AIR MASS AND WMFNT REMAIN. WMFMT SURGES(OVERRUNNING) PCPN MAX AREA FM ADIRONDACKS INTO SVT OVERNIGHT ON NAM...GFS ACROSS MOST OF FCA...GEM TRACKS IT BWTN. WHILE TIMING AND LOCALES MAY BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...THE THREAT OF SURGES OF -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MUGGY WARM NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WITH SOME 50S IN THE N ADIRONDACKS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTION OF FA TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER LATE TUESDAY. PWATS CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH BTWN 1.5 AND 2+ INCHES AND THETA E RIDGE AXIS H10-H8 ACTUALLY BECOMES STRONGER WITH TIME. THUS WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK TO BE COMMON WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. WITH MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE ALL OF THE WAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED WHICH HINGES ON HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR OUR EAST WORKING WESTWARD AND PUSHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WEDNESDAY AS GGEM WOULD HAVE FA MAINLY DRY WITH ECMWF...NAM AND GFS ALL SHOWING MORE RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AFTER A LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES THE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A BERMUDA HIGH INFLUENCING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. A DECREASING TREND IN THE POPS EXTENDS INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND...AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THEN THE BERMUDA HIGH MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WILL STILL FEATURE A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA. A MOIST CHANNEL OF WARM AND HUMID AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS THE FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND THE RIDGE. THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THEIR IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH. PWATS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SO HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE COVERAGE IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM/HPC GUIDANCE. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. LOWS WILL BE STICKY IN THE 60S TO L70S IN THE MUGGY AIR MASS. FRI TO SAT...A BROKEN RECORD...REPEAT PATTERN OF ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION TO ENTER THE WEEKEND. THE POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES ON SATURDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOW CHC MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MAKING PROGRESS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MAINLY 80S AND L90S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO L70S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLE OR OPPRESSIVE. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA...AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GFS/ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING ZONAL. THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO BUILDS WESTWARD AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS STILL AN ISOLD THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS. SFC DEWPTS MAY DROP IN THE LOWER TO M60S WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE...AS HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHS PEAKS. LOWS IN THE 60S WILL PREVAIL. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH PCPN STILL POTENTIALLY ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS. NO IMMEDIATE RELIEF WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE LATE MORNING KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. THE RAIN MAY BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER JUST BEFORE NOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. VSBYS WERE LOWERED IN THE IFR RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CIGS WERE KEPT IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KPSF. ALL THE TERMINALS MAY NEED IFR CIGS WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND IT HAS BEEN KEPT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW PROBS /30 PERCENT OR LESS/. THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TOO. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN MAY LESSEN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE SITES. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N/NE FROM KALB NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KTS...BUT VEER TO THE S AT KPOU AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION A LITTLE. && .HYDROLOGY... PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES SOUTHWEST TO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS. THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL ON THESE DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .CLIMATE... THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 8.68 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS IS NOW THE THIRD WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. THE PRECIPITATION RECORD PERIOD GOES BACK TO 1826. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 2006 WHEN 8.74 INCHES OCCURRED...AND THE 2ND WETTEST WAS 8.70 INCHES THAT FELL BACK IN 1862. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ001-013. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MAZ001-025. VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...11/SNYDER/NAS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...WASULA FIRE WEATHER...11/NAS HYDROLOGY...11 CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... ESTF UPDATE FOLLOWING HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS EVENING. 18Z MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON HEAVIER PCPN BEFORE MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN A PATTERN TO QUICK STARTS, SO WANT TO SEE HOW THE FCST LLVL JET VERIFIES OFF THE 00Z SOUNDINGS. REGARDLESS WHAT DOES NOT OCCUR BEFORE 10Z IS LIKELY TO THEN OCCUR AFTER 10Z. FFA CONTD. PWAT AXIS CONTS 2+ ALONG THE I 95 CORRIDOR AND VAPOR HAS CONNECTION TO NEAR FLORIDA. THE FOCUS IS ON SOME SORT OF IMPULSE OR TWO RIDING NWD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND CAUSING ONE OR TWO MORE PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN. THERE PROBABLY WONT BE MUCH THUNDER WITH IT. THINKING MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOP IN OUR AREA AFTER 04Z AS LOW LVL WINDS ORGANIZE A NEW SPEED MAX ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST. THAT WOULD PROBABLY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO YIELD HEAVY QPF. HOURLY RFALLS EARLY TUESDAY 1 TO 2 INCHES WHERE IT RAINS HARD THE ENTIRE HOUR. TRAVEL DELAYS AND TRAFFIC DETOURS FM LANE AND ROAD CLOSURES EXPECTED BUT THE TIMING AND WHERE IS THE ISSUE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TUESDAY...BELIEVE WE HAVE FF POTENTIAL BUT WE`RE NOT SURE IF ITS ALL CONFINED TO THE MORNING OR IF THERE IS LATE AFTN REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST WHERE IT HEATS UP? MLCAPE OF 1000J TUE AFTN. SOME DRYING IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTN BUT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. WE SHOULD HAVE A MORNING BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR I95...THE AFTN MAY BE MORE RELATED TO HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTION TENDING TO BE RESTRICTED TO EASTERN PA. TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS WERE 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/1 GFS/NAM GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 PATTERN REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING. THIS ALLOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST TO RETROGRESS BACK ACROSS THE ERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER THEN DRIER PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION. TUE NIGHT THRU FRI...WE REMAIN IN THE DEEPER SRLY FLOW WITH SEVERAL S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE DAILY CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIER RAINS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S (NORTH) AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (SOUTH). IT WILL REMAIN HUMID AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN 70S WITH SOME MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH. FRI NIGHT THRU MONDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD (SOUTH OF OUR AREA)...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE WRLY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP FLOW OF HIGHER PW AIR TO BE CUT OFF FOR OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS BOTH SAT AND SUN AS THE GFS/EC SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE REGION. MOSTLY WENT WITH HPC TEMPS/POPS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S IN MANY AREAS AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT LATE WITH A FEW BANDS OF IFR VSBY IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SREF HAS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON LOW CIGS VCNTY KABE AND KRDG. TUESDAY...AFTER EARLY MORNING IFR OR MVFR CIGS LIFT...VFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS IN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS, WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR BUT LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING EARLY MORNING FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOONS EARLY EVENING. FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR. && .MARINE... MARGINAL SCA FOR NEAR 5 SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS PERSISTENT S TO SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BIASED HIGH. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FOR DE BAY. OUTLOOK... SCA FLAG EXTENDED INTO TUE NIGHT WITH MARGINAL 5FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SCA WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TUE EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE RECORD RAINS OF JUNE IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND THE CONTD PWAT AXIS OF 2+ INCHES ALONG I95 THROUGH AT LEAST TUE... AND THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED AND FOCUSED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THIS COULD BE A LOCALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITH CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING VULNERABLE AREAS. PLAN FOR TRAVEL DELAYS AND DETOURS IF AND WHEN FLOODING FLOODING REDEVELOPS IN PART OF THE AREA. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME QUESTION ON THE MAIN LOCATION OF THE MORE FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT IT APPEARS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY POINTS TO THE WEST ARE OF MORE CONCERN. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LEAD TO FLOODING AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING CORES, COMBINED WITH MANY AREAS OF RATHER LOW 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. && .RIP CURRENTS... A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FCST TODAY FOR THE NJ AND DE BEACHES. A MDT RISK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THEREAFTER... LOW OR MDT WED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER A SECONDARY 15 SECOND SWELL APPEARS IN OUR WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. && .CLIMATE... RECORD RAINFALLS IN JUNE IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY. CLM`S FOR JUNE ARE POSTED BUT NO TIME TO APPEND ANY RECORD REFERENCE DATA. DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS FOR JULY 1 ARE BELOW. ACY 1.26 1922 PHL 1.04 1877 ILG 1.08 2009 ABE 1.12 1960 NEW RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED TODAY TTN 1.75 2005 GED 1.80 1996 RDG 1.18 1922 MPO 1.76 1976 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010- 012-015>019. DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR DEZ001>004. MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015- 019-020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE MARINE...DRAG/GORSE HYDROLOGY... RIP CURRENTS... CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
133 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO ADD THE FLOOD WATCH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 115 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/ UPDATE... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE PROGGING A WEAKER LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS NW GA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT FURTHER WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AS IT GETS AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ADDITION...DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND A FEW OF THEM COULD BE STRONG. ISOLATED SEVERE WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z MODIFIED SOUNDING DID SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF CAPE. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE CONTENT. UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. DEESE LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF 2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY REALISTIC. 01 HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS. DEESE AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... DYNAMICALLY LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION MOVING TOWARDS THE METRO AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MOVED THE TEMPO GROUP UP FOR THUNDER FROM 19 TO 21Z. WINDS ALSO AN ISSUE. LIMITED MIXING THIS MORNING HAS KEPT THE WINDS A LITTEL EAST OF SOUTH THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE SW. DO THINK AFTER THE LINE MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL BE FORCED BACK TO SW. A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. & .HYDROLOGY... AN UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUMMER WILL BRING IN AN EXTREMLY MOIST AIRMASS TO THE STATE THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL GRAIDENT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND LEAD TO STRONG H85 MOIST TRANSPORT. THIS TRANSPORT WILL START ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STATEWIDE DURING THIS PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORMS AND LEAD TO SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. PWAT VALUES IN ATLANTA ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOVE 2 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE AT OR JUST BELOW THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JULY. THE HIGH PWAT VALUES AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS PRIMED THE AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS...SEE THE LATEST /ATLFFAFFC FOR MORE INFORMATION. AGIBBS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 80 70 ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 60 40 50 50 BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 65 / 60 50 70 60 CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 80 40 50 50 COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 60 40 40 40 GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 50 70 60 MACON 87 70 86 70 / 50 40 50 60 ROME 87 66 85 69 / 80 40 50 50 PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 60 40 50 50 VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 80 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...CLARKE...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK... GREENE...HANCOCK...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MONTGOMERY... MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR... TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILKES... WILKINSON. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CATOOSA... CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD... FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...HALL...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON... MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD. && $$ HYDROLOGY...AGIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
115 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/ UPDATE... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE PROGGING A WEAKER LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS NW GA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT FURTHER WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AS IT GETS AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS. IN ADDITION...DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND A FEW OF THEM COULD BE STRONG. ISOLATED SEVERE WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z MODIFIED SOUNDING DID SHOW A NICE INVERTED V STRUCTURE WITH AROUND 2500 J/KG OF CAPE. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS YESTERDAY EVENING WITH OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. TODAY WILL BE TRICKIER AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FORM THE WEST PROVIDING A NICE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN NOT OFTEN SEEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ISSUE IS THE CONTINUED DRY MID LEVEL AIR FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST BUT PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.4 INCHES OR LESS. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE SE CORNER WHERE PWATS WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS ONE IN KEEPING HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS BUT ALSO GENERATING A SECONDARY ZONE LATER OVER THE NORTHWEST. FEEL THIS SECOND AREA WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THIS BEST MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MARCH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING IT SE INTO THE ATLANTA METRO. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM DUE TO PRECIP LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...STILL BELIEVE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF GIVEN TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE CONTENT. UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS WEST. ALL IN ALL...NET EFFECT SHOULD BE HIGHER POPS OVER A LARGER AREA FOR TUE WITH MOISTURE LADEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. DEESE LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... VERY LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BY TUESDAY...SLOWLY RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER HIGHS. ONE OF THE HIGHS IS CENTERED OVER UTAH/NEVADA WITH THE OTHER ONE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GA IN VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE GREATEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE PEAKING ON THE 4TH OF JULY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING A PLUME OF RICH MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVING ONSHORE THE GA/SC/NC COAST TUE THEN SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUT GA RIGHT UNDER THIS PLUME ON THU AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING PW VALUES OF INCREASING INTO THE 2 TO 2.2 INCHES RANGE AT THE SAME TIME. PW OF 2.2 INCHES IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR ALL-TIME RECORD VALUE BASED ON 60 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY OF FFC/AHN RAWINSONDE DATA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE STILL STAY ION A FAIRLY MOIST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THE WPC 5 DAY QPF TOTALS ARE SHOWING 2 TO 4 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE STATE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN DOES MATERIALIZE THESE QPF TOTALS LOOK VERY REALISTIC. 01 HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN WITH STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS BUT FEEL MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO INDICATE HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL WED INTO THU FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE BUT TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT FOR THOSE AREAS. DEESE && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... DYNAMICALLY LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION MOVING TOWARDS THE METRO AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MOVED THE TEMPO GROUP UP FOR THUNDER FROM 19 TO 21Z. WINDS ALSO AN ISSUE. LIMITED MIXING THIS MORNING HAS KEPT THE WINDS A LITTEL EAST OF SOUTH THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE SW. DO THINK AFTER THE LINE MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL BE FORCED BACK TO SW. A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 86 69 84 69 / 60 50 80 70 ATLANTA 85 69 84 69 / 60 40 50 50 BLAIRSVILLE 81 62 80 65 / 60 50 70 60 CARTERSVILLE 86 67 85 69 / 80 40 50 50 COLUMBUS 89 71 88 71 / 60 40 40 40 GAINESVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 60 50 70 60 MACON 87 70 86 70 / 50 40 50 60 ROME 87 66 85 69 / 80 40 50 50 PEACHTREE CITY 86 67 86 69 / 60 40 50 50 VIDALIA 87 72 85 72 / 60 50 80 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
122 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 AS LOW ROTATES OFF TO OUR WEST...EASTERN KY HAS FOUND ITSELF IN A DRY SLOT WITH CONVECTION FORMING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND POINTS WESTWARD. LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE TRYING TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS ALSO POINTING AT SOME CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER OUR FAR EAST HERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MERGE IN FROM THE EAST. ALL THINGS BEING ACCOUNTED FOR...NOT FEELING VERY CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE DRY SLOT IS IN PLACE. BACKED OFF POPS SOME THROUGH 18Z...AT WHICH TIME BEST CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN KICKING IN. UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOOK LIKE THE CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY GET GOING AFTER NOON TODAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW WHICH INITIALLY WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE PROBLEM WITH DECIPHERING THE MODELS IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LOWS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE BITS OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW ARE QUITE DIFFERENT AND AS A RESULT THE TIMING OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD IS A DIFFICULT TASK WITH THE MODELS BEING ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT WE ARE UNDER AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT JUST NEEDS A LITTLE ENCOURAGEMENT TO KICK OFF A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM. THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE PRECIPITATION THAN THE OTHER MODELS SO TENDED TO NUDGE THINGS A LITTLE TOWARD THE NAM FOR THE FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART STAY THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE...HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. FOR TEMPERATURES STAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN CONSENSUS MOS DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA. MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL FINALLY RELAX AS PROGS INDICATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER HIGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY AS A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE BACKS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE EAST. WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE STORMS REPEAT. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD RATHER MILD BUT WILL MODERATE WELL INTO THE 80S DURING THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL COME WITH A VERY MUGGY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE SO THE HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING 90. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 CONVECTION HAS BEGUN POPPING UP ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME NUMEROUS IN NATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY AS CELLS ARE STILL DEVELOPING...THERE IS NO EXACT TIMING ON WHEN OR EVEN IF A PARTICULAR CELL WILL HIT A TAF SITE DIRECTLY. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS MENTION OF VCTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE UPDATES AS NEEDED FOR IMPENDING STORMS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME LARGE HAIL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WIND GUSTS MAY BE FELT AT TAF SITES EVEN IF STORM DOES NOT PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. BY OVERNIGHT...DAYTIME HEATING AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL DECLINE...LEAVING BEHIND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TAF SITES IF IT BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KSME AND POTENTIALLY KLOZ AS WELL. AS FOG SCATTERS OUT IN THE MORNING...A SIMILAR STORY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1204 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 AS LOW ROTATES OFF TO OUR WEST...EASTERN KY HAS FOUND ITSELF IN A DRY SLOT WITH CONVECTION FORMING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND POINTS WESTWARD. LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE TRYING TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...WITH A FEW POP UP SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN IS ALSO POINTING AT SOME CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER OUR FAR EAST HERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MERGE IN FROM THE EAST. ALL THINGS BEING ACCOUNTED FOR...NOT FEELING VERY CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE DRY SLOT IS IN PLACE. BACKED OFF POPS SOME THROUGH 18Z...AT WHICH TIME BEST CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN KICKING IN. UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOOK LIKE THE CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY GET GOING AFTER NOON TODAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW WHICH INITIALLY WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THEN EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE PROBLEM WITH DECIPHERING THE MODELS IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LOWS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE BITS OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW ARE QUITE DIFFERENT AND AS A RESULT THE TIMING OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD IS A DIFFICULT TASK WITH THE MODELS BEING ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT WE ARE UNDER AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT JUST NEEDS A LITTLE ENCOURAGEMENT TO KICK OFF A SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM. THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE PRECIPITATION THAN THE OTHER MODELS SO TENDED TO NUDGE THINGS A LITTLE TOWARD THE NAM FOR THE FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART STAY THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE...HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. FOR TEMPERATURES STAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN CONSENSUS MOS DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA. MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL FINALLY RELAX AS PROGS INDICATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER HIGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY AS A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE BACKS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE EAST. WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE STORMS REPEAT. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD RATHER MILD BUT WILL MODERATE WELL INTO THE 80S DURING THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TEMPERATURE INCREASE WILL COME WITH A VERY MUGGY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE SO THE HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING 90. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL GET GOING BETWEEN 16-18Z. JUST LIKE THE LAST TWO DAYS...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRODUCING OUTFLOWS AGAIN TODAY WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME LLWS A LONG DISTANCE FROM THE STORMS. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD INDICATION OF WHEN THE TAF STATIONS WILL GET THUNDER...SO JUST LEFT VCTS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
203 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 80S WARMER VALLEYS. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...VERY DIFFICULT AFTERNOON FORECAST AS MAJORITY OF 12Z NWP GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING CURRENT TRENDS VERY WELL. INITIAL SURGES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING NORTHWARD THOUGH CENTRAL PA/NY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPLIT THE UPRIGHTS IN REGARD TO THE BTV CWA WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP. LATEST 15Z HRRR IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL WITH A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS...AND DEVELOPS THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING NORTH FROM PA INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING CLOSER TO 23-00Z. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHLIGHTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE DECREASED QPF FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...KNOCKING IT DOWN BY ALMOST HALF. STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TIMING NOW PUSHED OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY... FOR TONIGHT...POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z...ALONG WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WL MENTION CAT/LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER TO SCHC/CHC AFT MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN. EXPECT A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT IN TEMPS...WITH COOLEST READINGS ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN DACKS AND WARMEST LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON TUES AFTN AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE CHANGE ON TUESDAY AFTN WL BE INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WL SPREAD INTO MOST OF VT AND NORTHERN NY...AS WARM FRNT INTERSECTS OUR CWA. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING AS S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200% ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION SCHC/CHC POPS ON TUES AM...BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY AND MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY WITH LIS AROUND -3C AND CAPE BTWN 1200-1800 J/KG. SOUNDING SHOW WARM CLOUD DEPTHS >12KFT...PWS NEAR 2.0"...AND MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...WHICH SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES LIKELY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY TUES EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND S/W ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF CWA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14-16C ON TUES...BUT CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING SOME...WL STILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MENTION HIGHS IN THE M70S MTNS TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS. WEDS...SW FLW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED S/W ENERGY WL CONT ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH A LLVL BOUNDARY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY...CREATING INCREASED INSTABILITY VALUES AND THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. PWS CONT TO BE BTWN 1.50 AND 2.0"...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WL MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 349 AM EDT MONDAY...PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE FORECAST AREA SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH (NEAR 2 INCHES)... THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. BY THE WEEKEND...PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY AS AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FLATTENS INTO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALMOST CERTAIN THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT HARD TO TIME SUCH FEATURES THIS FAR OUT SO WILL JUST CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE HUMID AS WELL. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...COMPLEX FORECAST WITH GENERAL BREAK IN PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY VARYING CONDITIONS...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THREAT OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS AT KBTV/KPBG WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS...WHILE MOST TAF SITE ARE ALREADY MVFR...WITH BOUTS OF IFR. KMSS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. SHOWERS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT...TAPERING OFF AFTER 08Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND TO AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL IN THE CPV...SLV...AND KRUT. EXPECT KMPV AND KSLK TO SEE IFR THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS FOR TUESDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND IFR SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO FOG GENERALLY 06-12Z. SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DAY OF DRY WEATHER. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 18 UTC THIS AFTN UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTN INTO TUESDAY. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE 1ST ARRIVING THIS AFTN/EVENING AND ANOTHER ON TUES. FORECASTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACRS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AREA WIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE... SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. && .CLIMATE... BTV GOT 0.30" OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT AND FELL 0.07 SHORT OF BREAKING THE ALL-TIME JUNE PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 9.92. THE 18.60" MAY-JUN TOTAL IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD BESTING THE 13.87" IN 2006. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ028-030-031- 034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS/LAHIFF AVIATION...RJS/KGM HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
141 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 11 AM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT. LARGE AREA OF RAIN SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN IN THE FAR SE HAS MOVED EAST. EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO THE CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY. STEADY RAIN UP TO AN INCH BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MINOR URBAN PROBLEMS IN THE ELMIRA AREA WITH A TSTORM SUNDAY AFTN. UPPED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE. THIS AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NE PA AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MULTI INCH AMOUNTS. WILL BE WATCHING RADAR CLOSELY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES. NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT. CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED. HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 400 AM EDT UPDATE... THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPS. 1145 AM EDT UPDATE... MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND. LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST /LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. RAIN WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOPING KEEPING MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUINGS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI... VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... NOON MON UPDATE... FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO NOON TUESDAY. ADDED THE CENT SRN TIER OF NY SO ONLY COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH YATES TO ONONDAGA. SO FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER CONTROL AND ONLY ADVISORIES ISSUED. SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN SO MORE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. GROUND SATURATED. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE LOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. WITH THIS AIRMASS TSTORMS CAN PUT OUT 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. STORMS WILL ONLY BE MOVING AT ABOUT 20 MPH. RAINFALL TOTALS 1 TO 2 INCHES WIDESPREAD WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. A LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. MINOR FLOODING FORECAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT LEAST...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS ALBANY. ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN RUNNING HIGH AND BELOW FLOOD STAGE. FORECAST TO GO TO FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT MINOR FLOOD INTO THURSDAY. RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS. VESTAL AND WAVERLY/SAYRE ON THE SUSQUEHANNA FORECASTED TO GO TO JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY TOO. STILL TIME FOR THESE POINTS. HEADWATER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE BUT DEPENDENT MORE ON TRAINING TSTORMS PUTTING DOWN LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-022>025- 036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...KAH/MDP AVIATION...MSE HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 80S WARMER VALLEYS. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 136 PM EDT MONDAY...VERY DIFFICULT AFTERNOON FORECAST AS MAJORITY OF 12Z NWP GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING CURRENT TRENDS VERY WELL. INITIAL SURGES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING NORTHWARD THOUGH CENTRAL PA/NY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPLIT THE UPRIGHTS IN REGARD TO THE BTV CWA WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP. LATEST 15Z HRRR IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL WITH A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS...AND DEVELOPS THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MOVING NORTH FROM PA INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING CLOSER TO 23-00Z. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHLIGHTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE DECREASED QPF FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...KNOCKING IT DOWN BY ALMOST HALF. STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT TIMING NOW PUSHED OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY... FOR TONIGHT...POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z...ALONG WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WL MENTION CAT/LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER TO SCHC/CHC AFT MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN. EXPECT A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT IN TEMPS...WITH COOLEST READINGS ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN DACKS AND WARMEST LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON TUES AFTN AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE CHANGE ON TUESDAY AFTN WL BE INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WL SPREAD INTO MOST OF VT AND NORTHERN NY...AS WARM FRNT INTERSECTS OUR CWA. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING AS S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200% ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION SCHC/CHC POPS ON TUES AM...BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY AND MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY WITH LIS AROUND -3C AND CAPE BTWN 1200-1800 J/KG. SOUNDING SHOW WARM CLOUD DEPTHS >12KFT...PWS NEAR 2.0"...AND MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...WHICH SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES LIKELY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY TUES EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND S/W ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF CWA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14-16C ON TUES...BUT CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING SOME...WL STILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MENTION HIGHS IN THE M70S MTNS TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS. WEDS...SW FLW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED S/W ENERGY WL CONT ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH A LLVL BOUNDARY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY...CREATING INCREASED INSTABILITY VALUES AND THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. PWS CONT TO BE BTWN 1.50 AND 2.0"...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WL MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 349 AM EDT MONDAY...PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE FORECAST AREA SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH (NEAR 2 INCHES)... THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. BY THE WEEKEND...PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY AS AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FLATTENS INTO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALMOST CERTAIN THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT HARD TO TIME SUCH FEATURES THIS FAR OUT SO WILL JUST CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE HUMID AS WELL. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/RUT TILL 14Z. VFR/MVFR CIGS AFTER 14Z...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z AT ALL SITES EXCEPT MSS. RAIN CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR AFTER 06Z TUESDAY IN LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND IFR SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO FOG GENERALLY 06-12Z. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 18 UTC THIS AFTN UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTN INTO TUESDAY. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE 1ST ARRIVING THIS AFTN/EVENING AND ANOTHER ON TUES. FORECASTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACRS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AREA WIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIAPTED WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE... SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. && .CLIMATE... BTV GOT 0.30" OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT AND FELL 0.07 SHORT OF BREAKING THE ALL-TIME JUNE PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 9.92. THE 18.60" MAY-JUN TOTAL IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD BESTING THE 13.87" IN 2006. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ028-030-031- 034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS/LAHIFF AVIATION...RJS HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1217 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 11 AM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT. LARGE AREA OF RAIN SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN IN THE FAR SE HAS MOVED EAST. EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO THE CENTRAL SRN TIER OF NY. STEADY RAIN UP TO AN INCH BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO MINOR URBAN PROBLEMS IN THE ELMIRA AREA WITH A TSTORM SUNDAY AFTN. UPPED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE. THIS AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NE PA AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MULTI INCH AMOUNTS. WILL BE WATCHING RADAR CLOSELY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION WITH A TROPICAL FLOW OUT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF. WV MVG NWRD THIS MRNG IS TRIGGERING A LRG BATCH OF CONV WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MRNG. RAIN WILL BE MVG ACROSS AREAS THAT HAS FLOODING ISSUES ON SUN SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CONV DVLPMT AND SHOWS THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT MVES NWRD...OUT OF THE BEST UPR LVL SUPPORT. IN GNRL...WILL CONT THE FCST OF RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LGTNG. CRNT PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ERN ZONES. NO REAL CNCRN FOR SVR TODAY WITH THE SATURATED SNDG AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. CLD CVR TODAY WILL LIMIT HTG. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... PTRN CONTS TO RETROGRADE WITH THE UPR LOW AND RDG MVG WWRD THRU THE PD. NUMEROUS WEAK UPR WV ROTATING ARND THE BACK OF THE RDG AND AHD OF THE UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER BATCHES OF CONV THAT WILL TAP THE DEEP MOISTURE AVBL IN THE SLY GULF FLOW. BLDG RDG AND WEAKENING LOW DOES EVENTUALLY BRK UP THE SLY FLOW...BUT NOT DURING THE SHRT TERM PD. STILL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATH OF THE WVS AND THE AXIS OF CONV DOES GRADUALLY MVE WWRD AND WEAKEN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE FLLODD THREAT A BIT AS EARLY AS WED. IN THE MEANTIME...PWATS TOP OUT NEAR 2 INCHES ON TUE CONTG THE FLOOD THREAT. CLD CVR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SVR TRWS ON TUE...BUT SLGTLY DRIER AIR AND HTG MAY TRIGGER A FEW LRGR STORMS ON WED. HI TEMPS THRU THE PD WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...RISING A BIT EACH DAY WITH WED BEING THE WARMEST. GUID IN GOOD GNRL AGREEMENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 400 AM EDT UPDATE... THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPS. 1145 AM EDT UPDATE... MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND. LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST /LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 700 AM EDT UPDATE... A DIFFICULT FORECAST CONTINUES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. MVFR WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS ARE ENGULFED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ON TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE IFR RESTRICTIONS. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS MOVE OUT...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI... VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... NOON MON UPDATE... FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO NOON TUESDAY. ADDED THE CENT SRN TIER OF NY SO ONLY COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH YATES TO ONONDAGA. SO FAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER CONTROL AND ONLY ADVISORIES ISSUED. SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN SO MORE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. GROUND SATURATED. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE LOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. WITH THIS AIRMASS TSTORMS CAN PUT OUT 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. STORMS WILL ONLY BE MOVING AT ABOUT 20 MPH. RAINFALL TOTALS 1 TO 2 INCHES WIDESPREAD WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. A LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. MINOR FLOODING FORECAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT LEAST...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS ALBANY. ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN RUNNING HIGH AND BELOW FLOOD STAGE. FORECAST TO GO TO FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT MINOR FLOOD INTO THURSDAY. RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS. VESTAL AND WAVERLY/SAYRE ON THE SUSQUEHANNA FORECASTED TO GO TO JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY TOO. STILL TIME FOR THESE POINTS. HEADWATER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE BUT DEPENDENT MORE ON TRAINING TSTORMS PUTTING DOWN LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-022>025- 036-037-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...KAH/MDP AVIATION...KAH HYDROLOGY...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WERE TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT IN A FEW AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH SB CAPES OF AROUND 1000J/KG IN THAT AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND AN UPDATE OF LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES WERE COSMETIC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAR WEST...A SUNNY AND QUIET MONDAY IS FORECAST. GIVEN LITTLE SPREAD IN 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WILL UTILIZE A BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DID EXPAND THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO THE 07 UTC HRRR WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC 4KM WRF...AND 00 UTC NAM/GFS AND 03 UTC SREF. ALL DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET WITH A CLEAR AND QUIET MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK. 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE LAS VEGAS CENTERED RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. BY LATE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DIRECT MORE VIGOROUS MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING OF THE STRONGEST LOW AMONG 00 UTC ECMWF/GEFS/GFS/GEM GLOBAL DIFFERS BY UP TO 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S AS THE POLAR FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...SCHECK AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
442 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 .UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST COVER THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. MOSINEE...KCWA...DID REPORT -RA IN THE PAST HALF HOUR...SO THE PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE THE RUNS FROM THE UP OF MICHIGAN DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS AS WELL WITH SOME SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN RUNNING INTO SOME MORE NORTHERLY WINDS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 01.20 HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT...THOUGH OVERDONE...COMPARISON TO RADAR AND SHOWS THESE SHOWERS QUICKLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE CONDITIONS...BUT GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30KTS OR SO WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ANOTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN BETWEEN...A CUT OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE 01.12Z MODEL SUITE WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ATLANTIC RIDGE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FORCES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THESE WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY WEAK FORCING OVER THE REGION WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING THESE WAVES WITH LESS THAN 4 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE LACKING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA BRINGING A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 C/KM THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN BY LATE AFTERNOON TO AID IN THE INSTABILITY. CAPES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...POSSIBLY AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS TO BE A TALL SKINNY CAPE. ENOUGH THOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO REAL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND STARTS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH SOME LOW END CAPE TO POP SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AND WILL SHOW A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER THAT...ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN THE PROCESS OF MERGING INTO ONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PROGRESSES IS THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS TEND TO TAKE FRONTS TOO FAR SOUTH IN THESE PATTERNS SO HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER TO THE NORTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 1 2013 AREA REMAINS QUIET BETWEEN UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER NORTHERN STATES AND CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER MID MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PROMPT SOME MID DAY CUMULUS BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SOME LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF SITES AT ALL. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBACH SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION.....SHEA