Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/30/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
205 PM MST FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT VERY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF TUCSON SATURDAY. GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL THEN LEAD TO
THE DAILY CYCLE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
GRADUAL MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...599 DM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
PROVIDING A GENERALLY LIGHT ELY FLOW REGIME ACROSS SE AZ THIS
AFTERNOON. 28/17Z RUC HRRR DEPICTED TWO CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
MOVE WWD ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO NRN GRAHAM COUNTY NORTH OF
SAFFORD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THUS...HAVE CONFINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NRN GRAHAM COUNTY THIS EVENING. POPS WERE REDUCED TO
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AREA-WIDE
LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS TO OCCUR SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT EVENING AS THE UPPER HIGH
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
28/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A GRADUAL INCREASE OF
MOISTURE STARTING SUN AND CONTINUING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ELY
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO JUSTIFY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR WEST AS THE TUCSON METRO AREA
SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING. CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS TO OCCUR SUN
AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE/GRAHAM/
COCHISE COUNTIES. EXPECT A SIMILAR POP SCENARIO MON AFTERNOON AND
MON EVENING.
THEREAFTER...POPS WERE TRENDED UPWARD BY WED AS THE GFS/ECMWF
CONTINUED TO DEPICT GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE OPTED FOR THE HIGHEST POPS TO OCCUR WED...WITH CHANCE-CATEGORY
POPS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD AND ONLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY. MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE WRN CONUS HIGH SHIFTS INTO SRN
CALIFORNIA. HAVE REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY THUR-FRI. HOWEVER...EXPECT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO
CONTINUE THUR-FRI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE MAINTAINED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THRU 9 PM
MST SUN. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SUN AFTERNOON. THUS...FOR CONTINUITY...HAVE KEPT THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR SUN. THEREAFTER...EXPECT A VERY GRADUAL
MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS MON-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD -TSRA MAINLY NEAR MTNS EAST OF KTUS THRU THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS
MOSTLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR 30/00Z. SURFACE
WIND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING MOSTLY ELY/SELY 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. TEMPERATURES OF 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER
WILL PRODUCE INCREASED TAKE OFF LENGTHS DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON THIS WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL THEN PRODUCE THE
DAILY CYCLE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ501>506-509-
515.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
BF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013
...MORE STORMS FOR THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...
THE TWO MAIN CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE THE
CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN
PLAINS...AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN AND AROUND BURN AREAS.
CURRENTLY...A SMALL CIRCULATION 20 TO 30 MILES NNW OF COS...WITH ASSOCIATED
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY...IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ESPECIALLY IN TELLER COUNTY
WHERE NUMEROUS CG STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WITH A STRONG CELL
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CANON CITY. THE 12Z GFS40 PV15
ALSO SHOWS A WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. THESE INGREDIENTS...ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30`S AND 40`S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WILL AID
IN KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS GOING AFTER SUNSET. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE...MINALY DUE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
LATER TONIGHT...THE HRRR/RAP/NAM12 CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH 06Z. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR AND RAP...SEEM A BIT OVERDONE ON THE
MOISTURE (CURRENT TD IN LHX IS 26)...BUT STILL FEEL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WIND...BUT IF
MOISTURE DOES RETURN VIA A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE AS THE RAP AND HRRR
FORECAST...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS
30-40KTS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE NAM12/GFS/EC ALL SHOW ANOTHER...MORE SIGNIFICANT...DISTURBANCE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DROP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HELP DROP
700MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 11C...LEADING TO COOLER MAX
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOSITURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CURRENT ACTIVE BURN AREAS SUCH AS
THE WEST FORK COMPLEX AND EAST PEAK FIRES...ALONG WITH THE WALDO
CANYON SCAR...WILL NEED TO MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO THE
INCREASE IS MOISTURE. -PJC
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013
...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN...AND FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE BURN SCARS...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
WEST AND REMAINS CENTERED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TO
CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT
SUNDAY AND CURRENT MODEL TIMING SHOWS IT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...CAPES
IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO MOUNTAINS...
EXPECT TO HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION FIRING BY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO IMPACT ONE OF THE BURN SCARS
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WITH ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING...
INSTABILITY...AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH CAPES AND DEWPOINTS DECREASE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE...INTENSITY...AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF AXIS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY. GFS FORECASTS THE CLOSED LOW TO RETROGRADE FRIDAY
TO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...OVER WESTERN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THE GFS
SCENARIO...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A FEW RUNS NOW...KEEPS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN A COOL AND ACTIVE PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SCENARIO
KEEPS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
STILL EXPECT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMDITIES TO BRING SOME RELIEF TO WILDFIRE THREAT. STARK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN AT KALS...KCOS...AND KPUB TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT KCOS AND THE
SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KCOS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS
AND KPUB THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. -PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PJC
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...PJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
130 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CAPES ALREADY RUNNING 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE TRI-STATE
AT 16Z PER LAPS ANALYSIS. HOWEVER CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS TO THE
EAST...AND THE REGION IS IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80+ KT
250 HPA JET PER 12Z RAOBS. SO WHILE HAVE THE CAPE...NOT THE MUCH
THE WAY IN FORCING TO PLAY WITH...OUTSIDE OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
FROM YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION AND LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ. LATEST HRRR AND RUC PAINT A PICTURE OF ISOLD-
SCT CONVECTION FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND THE FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS APPEARS ON
TRACK.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN DURING THE EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...AS
A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES UP THE COAST. LAST TWO RUNS OF THE
ECMWF HAVE BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVE ACCEPTED
THIS IDEA BUT TEMPERED WITH THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONGOING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION SITS BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP PROVIDES A CONTINUAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...USHERING IN WARM...VERY MOIST AIR. THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS
HAVE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES...WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIVERGENCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW HOVERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SAT NIGHT...WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA. 00Z MODELS
HINT OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING OUT...WITH PW VALUES ONLY AROUND
1.2/1.3 INCHES FOR SAT NIGHT. MADE MENTION OF CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEST COMBO OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FARTHER INLAND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CITY...BUT A STRONGER TSTM IS POSSIBLE WITH INSTABILITY VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS. AS THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...PW
VALUES INCREASE GREATLY OVER THE AREA...WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE CONTINUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN MARGINAL...WITH THE THINKING THAT
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT HUGGING THE
NORTHEAST AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SQUEEZING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY TUESDAY...THE
BERMUDA HIGH/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE
NORTHEAST...DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE DIURNAL AT THIS POINT WITH THE
PASSING SHORTWAVES COMBINED WITH DAY TIME HEATING BECOMING THE MAIN
TRIGGER RATHER THAN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME DRYING
FINALLY EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TAKE MORE
CONTROL OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY WEAKENS
AND PROGRESSES EAST.
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP/APPROACH WESTERN TERMINALS BY 22Z...MOVE
THROUGH CITY TERMINALS THROUGH 01Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN TERMINALS BY 04Z-05Z. ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THIS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW IN LOCATION/TIMING FOR
INCLUSION IN TAFS.
WINDS LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT COASTAL TERMINALS. POSSIBLY LOWER IN SPOTS. CIGS/VSBYS
LIFT AFTER 13Z SATURDAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SHOWERS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT-WED...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST CHANGES IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
SCA REMAINS UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS AROUND
5 FT...AND POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEAS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FT. WIND GUSTS MAY TOUCH 25 KTS AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE COMING WEEK WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUALLY BUILDING UP THE SEAS. WINDS
HOWEVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...SO ALL WATERS OTHER
THAN THE OCEAN SHOULD REMAIN SUB SCA.
WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT WAVE WATCH III SEAS BY A FOOT OR SO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS DECREASING. IF CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS HOLD...COULD CANCEL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE UP FOR NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. STILL TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE RAINFALL
TOTALS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-006-
009-010.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
176>179.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1257 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CAPES ALREADY RUNNING 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE TRI-STATE
AT 16Z PER LAPS ANALYSIS. HOWEVER CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS TO THE
EAST...AND THE REGION IS IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80+ KT
250 HPA JET PER 12Z RAOBS. SO WHILE HAVE THE CAPE...NOT THE MUCH
THE WAY IN FORCING TO PLAY WITH...OUTSIDE OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
FROM YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION AND LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ. LATEST HRRR AND RUC PAINT A PICTURE OF ISOLD-
SCT CONVECTION FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND THE FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS APPEARS ON
TRACK.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN DURING THE EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...AS
A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES UP THE COAST. LAST TWO RUNS OF THE
ECMWF HAVE BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVE ACCEPTED
THIS IDEA BUT TEMPERED WITH THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONGOING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION SITS BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP PROVIDES A CONTINUAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...USHERING IN WARM...VERY MOIST AIR. THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS
HAVE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES...WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIVERGENCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW HOVERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SAT NIGHT...WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA. 00Z MODELS
HINT OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING OUT...WITH PW VALUES ONLY AROUND
1.2/1.3 INCHES FOR SAT NIGHT. MADE MENTION OF CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEST COMBO OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FARTHER INLAND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CITY...BUT A STRONGER TSTM IS POSSIBLE WITH INSTABILITY VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS. AS THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...PW
VALUES INCREASE GREATLY OVER THE AREA...WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE CONTINUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN MARGINAL...WITH THE THINKING THAT
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT HUGGING THE
NORTHEAST AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SQUEEZING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY TUESDAY...THE
BERMUDA HIGH/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE
NORTHEAST...DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE DIURNAL AT THIS POINT WITH THE
PASSING SHORTWAVES COMBINED WITH DAY TIME HEATING BECOMING THE MAIN
TRIGGER RATHER THAN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME DRYING
FINALLY EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TAKE MORE
CONTROL OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY WEAKENS
AND PROGRESSES EAST.
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE NORTH. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE AREA TODAY.
BRIEF SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS CITY AND INTERIOR TERMINALS LATE THIS
MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACT TO OPERATIONS EXPECTED.
SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER WITH BETTER OVERALL CHANCES IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND HAVE SHOWN THAT VIA TEMPO GROUP
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ISP/GON.
GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...WHICH MAY SEE MVFR
CIGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS DEVELOPING BY
16-17Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 19-20Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT-TUE...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST CHANGES IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
SCA REMAINS UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS AROUND
5 FT...AND POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEAS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FT. WIND GUSTS MAY TOUCH 25 KTS AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE COMING WEEK WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUALLY BUILDING UP THE SEAS. WINDS
HOWEVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...SO ALL WATERS OTHER
THAN THE OCEAN SHOULD REMAIN SUB SCA.
WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT WAVE WATCH III SEAS BY A FOOT OR SO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS DECREASING. IF CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS HOLD...COULD CANCEL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE UP FOR NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. STILL TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE RAINFALL
TOTALS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-006-
009-010.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
176>179.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BC/DH
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN/SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1116 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CAPES ALREADY RUNNING 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE TRI-STATE
AT 14Z PER LAPS ANALYSIS. HOWEVER CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS TO THE
EAST...AND THE REGION IS IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80+ KT
250 HPA JET PER 12Z RAOBS. SO WHILE HAVE THE CAPE...NOT THE MUCH
THE WAY IN FORCING TO PLAY WITH...OUTSIDE OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
FROM YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION AND LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ. LATEST HRRR AND RUC PAINT A PICTURE OF ISOLD-
SCT CONVECTION FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER ZONES TO BELOW 55 PERCENT TO ACCOMMODATE
THIS.
FOR NOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
APPEARS ON TRACK.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN DURING THE EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...AS
A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES UP THE COAST. LAST TWO RUNS OF THE
ECMWF HAVE BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...HAVE ACCEPTED
THIS IDEA BUT TEMPERED WITH THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONGOING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REGION SITS BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP PROVIDES A CONTINUAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...USHERING IN WARM...VERY MOIST AIR. THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS
HAVE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES...WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIVERGENCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW HOVERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SAT NIGHT...WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA. 00Z MODELS
HINT OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING OUT...WITH PW VALUES ONLY AROUND
1.2/1.3 INCHES FOR SAT NIGHT. MADE MENTION OF CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEST COMBO OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FARTHER INLAND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CITY...BUT A STRONGER TSTM IS POSSIBLE WITH INSTABILITY VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS. AS THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...PW
VALUES INCREASE GREATLY OVER THE AREA...WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE CONTINUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN MARGINAL...WITH THE THINKING THAT
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT HUGGING THE
NORTHEAST AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SQUEEZING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY TUESDAY...THE
BERMUDA HIGH/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE
NORTHEAST...DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE DIURNAL AT THIS POINT WITH THE
PASSING SHORTWAVES COMBINED WITH DAY TIME HEATING BECOMING THE MAIN
TRIGGER RATHER THAN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME DRYING
FINALLY EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TAKE MORE
CONTROL OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY WEAKENS
AND PROGRESSES EAST.
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE NORTH. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE AREA TODAY.
BRIEF SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS CITY AND INTERIOR TERMINALS LATE THIS
MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACT TO OPERATIONS EXPECTED.
SCT SHRA AND TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER WITH BETTER OVERALL CHANCES IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND HAVE SHOWN THAT VIA TEMPO GROUP
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ISP/GON.
GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR EASTERN TERMINALS...WHICH MAY SEE MVFR
CIGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS DEVELOPING BY
16-17Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 19-20Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT-TUE...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS AROUND
5 FT...AND POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEAS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FT. WIND GUSTS MAY TOUCH 25 KTS AS WELL DURING
THIS TIME. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE COMING WEEK WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUALLY BUILDING UP THE SEAS. WINDS
HOWEVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...SO ALL WATERS OTHER
THAN THE OCEAN SHOULD REMAIN SUB SCA.
WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT WAVE WATCH III SEAS BY A FOOT OR SO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS DECREASING. IF CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS HOLD...COULD CANCEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION LATER
TODAY...HAVE EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THIS EVENING FROM NYC
METRO NORTH/WEST AND FOR SOUTHWEST CT. CANCELED WATCH FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND SW CT WHERE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE MITIGATED BY A MORE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. STILL TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE RAINFALL
TOTALS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-006-
009-010.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
176>179.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BC/DH
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN/SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
919 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ***
9 AM UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS AT THIS TIME. THERE REMAIN SHOWERS STRETCHED FROM
CAPE ANN TO THE MIDDLE OF CAPE COD. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
STRETCHED THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY RIGHT NOW THAT WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST. APPEARS THAT THE WARM FRONT RUNS FROM
JUST NORTH OF ALBANY SOUTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF WORCESTER BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST TO ABOUT LAWRENCE. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN NEW YORK STRENGTHENS.
WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...UP TO 25 KTS. ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WINDS WILL BE
AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET. MANY LOCATIONS IN THIS REGION ARE
ALREADY GUSTING TO 25 KTS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS BY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN QUESTION IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK LATER ALLOWING FOR SOME
DIURNAL HEATING AND EVENTUALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE HI-RES WRF
AS WELL AS THE HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING
THIS FEATURE. IF THIS DOES PLAY OUT BELIEVE THE REGION THAT HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS AND WEST.
THIS REGION SHOWS THE BETTER INSTABILITY...UP TO 2000 J/KG
COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KTS AND LAPSE RATES OF 6
C/KM. ALSO HAVE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
BELIEVE THAT GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER
FOG AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TRUE DIABATIC HEATING. RIGHT NOW EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THE SUN DOES PEAK OUT THEN
TEMPS MAY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. STILL LEFT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS VERY HUMID AIRMASS IS STILL IN PLACE. MODELS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP TO PUSH ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE LLJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
THE 28/00Z GUIDANCE. STILL DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
MESOSCALE DETAILS EVIDENT IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL. WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...DECIDED TO USE A CONSENSUS BLEND TO TREND THE EXISTING
FORECAST.
THIS SOLUTION WILL FEATURE STRONG RIDGES DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN USA AS WELL AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FORMS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THAT AREA. THIS UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY EJECTS INTO THE /CANADIAN/ WESTERLIES DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DAILIES...
SATURDAY... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND A GREAT LAKES UPPER
LOW AND CROSSES EASTERN NY/NEW ENGLAND. A SUPPORTING UPPER JET HAS
ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION AND PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES...HIGHEST SOUTHEAST. WE WILL
FEATURE HIGHER POPS. WE WILL ALSO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN
WITH CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND A
MOIST SOUTH FLOW CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY...
IMPROVING TO MVFR/IFR EAST AND MVFR/PATCHY VFR WEST. OVERALL
IMPROVEMENTS BY LATE MORNING WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE MVFR OUT WEST IN ANY HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM.
TONIGHT...VFR/MVFR WILL SLOWLY DROP TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE REGION
IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. BEST REGION FOR LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONFIDENT IN OVERALL
TRENDS HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...PARTICULARLY WITH
CONVECTION.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONFIDENT IN OVERALL
TRENDS HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...PARTICULARLY WITH
CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PLENTY OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM QUITE HEAVY. THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SUCH FOG. POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS NEAR 1/4
MILE AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SHORT-TERM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCA STILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS. CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT WNA
WAVE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS SOUTHERLY
BIAS. OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS IMPACTING VISIBILITIES.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG EXPECTED WITH VERY HUMID AIR
CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE POOR VSBYS AT TIMES...AND 1/4 MILE
VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
SATURDAY...BUT BE PRIMARILY 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THE STEADY WIND
DIRECTION WILL HELP BUILD SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 10 FEET
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND EXPOSED PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SOUNDS SUCH AS RI SOUND AND POSSIBLY BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY. RADAR ESTIMATED
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 6 IN PER HOUR WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT. FORTUNATELY THESE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED
PROGRESSIVE AND DID NOT LINGER OVER ANY ONE LOCATION FOR VERY
LONG. THESE RAINFALL RATES DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WITHIN THIS SOUPY AIRMASS.
WILL NEED TO ESPECIALLY WATCH REGIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
UPSLOPE COULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL AS WELL AS URBANIZED AREAS...
WHERE CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO URBAN FLASH FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL BE
ADDING TO THE ALREADY HIGH MONTHLY TOTALS FOR RAIN. BELOW PLEASE
FIND THE TOP 10 WETTEST JUNE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR EACH OF OUR FOUR
CLIMATE SITES...THESE INCLUDE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR JUNE 2013 ENDING
AT 1 AM THE MORNING OF JUNE 28.
BOSTON...
1. 13.20 INCHES IN 1982
2. 11.58 INCHES IN 1998
3. 10.09 INCHES IN 2006
4. 9.87 INCHES IN 2013
5. 9.13 INCHES IN 1931
6. 8.63 INCHES IN 1959
7. 8.05 INCHES IN 1922
8. 7.79 INCHES IN 1881
9. 7.74 INCHES IN 1986
10. 7.25 INCHES IN 1875
HARTFORD...
1. 13.60 INCHES IN 1982
2. 10.62 INCHES IN 2013
3. 9.66 INCHES IN 1972
4. 9.16 INCHES IN 2006
5. 8.08 INCHES IN 1937
6. 8.00 INCHES IN 1920
7. 7.79 INCHES IN 1948
8. 7.18 INCHES IN 1998
9. 6.92 INCHES IN 1922
10. 6.79 INCHES IN 1986
PROVIDENCE...
1. 11.08 INCHES IN 1982
2. 9.61 INCHES IN 1998
3. 9.39 INCHES IN 2013
4. 9.24 INCHES IN 2006
5. 7.21 INCHES IN 1938
6. 6.83 INCHES IN 1978
7. 6.80 INCHES IN 1920
8. 6.72 INCHES IN 2001
9. 6.58 INCHES IN 1922
10. 5.84 INCHES IN 1989
WORCESTER...
1. 12.17 INCHES IN 1982
2. 9.68 INCHES IN 1998
3. 9.55 INCHES IN 2013
4. 9.25 INCHES IN 1972
5. 8.31 INCHES IN 1922
6. 7.78 INCHES IN 1968
7. 7.44 INCHES IN 1903
8. 7.39 INCHES IN 1938
9. 7.21 INCHES IN 1986
10. 6.98 INCHES IN 1973 & 1935
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
745 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST TREND REMAINS ON TRACK. HAVE
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SITUATION. APPEARS WARM FRONT IS
DRAPED FROM JUST NORTH OF PROVINCETOWN...TO JUST SOUTH OF
WORCESTER...THEN NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT THIS
FRONT TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD AS A LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. WIND
GUSTS MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...UP TO 25 KTS.
TODAY...
*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ***
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH THE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO NH ALLOWING FOR GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ESP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. OTHERWISE BELIEVE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE DISSIPATING. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STILL BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE CAPE/EASTERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS A TAD BREEZY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS BY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN QUESTION IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK LATER ALLOWING FOR SOME
DIURNAL HEATING AND EVENTUALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE HI-RES WRF
AS WELL AS THE HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING
THIS FEATURE. IF THIS DOES PLAY OUT BELIEVE THE REGION THAT HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS AND WEST.
THIS REGION SHOWS THE BETTER INSTABILITY...UP TO 2000 J/KG
COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KTS AND LAPSE RATES OF 6
C/KM. ALSO HAVE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
BELIEVE THAT GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF THE REGION WITHIN THEIR
DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE HAVE ALSO BEEN PLACED IN A 2 PERCENT TORNADO
PROBABILITY. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ESP SINCE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH RATHER THAN THE WSW ALTHOUGH IT IS
SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER
FOG AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TRUE DIABATIC HEATING. RIGHT NOW EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THE SUN DOES PEAK OUT THEN
TEMPS MAY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. STILL LEFT SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS VERY HUMID AIRMASS IS STILL IN PLACE. MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP TO PUSH ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE LLJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
THE 28/00Z GUIDANCE. STILL DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
MESOSCALE DETAILS EVIDENT IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL. WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...DECIDED TO USE A CONSENSUS BLEND TO TREND THE EXISTING
FORECAST.
THIS SOLUTION WILL FEATURE STRONG RIDGES DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN USA AS WELL AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FORMS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THAT AREA. THIS UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY EJECTS INTO THE /CANADIAN/ WESTERLIES DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DAILIES...
SATURDAY... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND A GREAT LAKES UPPER
LOW AND CROSSES EASTERN NY/NEW ENGLAND. A SUPPORTING UPPER JET HAS
ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION AND PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES...HIGHEST SOUTHEAST. WE WILL
FEATURE HIGHER POPS. WE WILL ALSO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN
WITH CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND A
MOIST SOUTH FLOW CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY...
IMPROVING TO MVFR/IFR EAST AND MVFR/PATCHY VFR WEST. OVERALL
IMPROVEMENTS BY LATE MORNING WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE MVFR OUT WEST IN ANY HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM.
TONIGHT...VFR/MVFR WILL SLOWLY DROP TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE REGION
IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. BEST REGION FOR LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONFIDENT IN OVERALL
TRENDS HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...PARTICULARLY WITH
CONVECTION.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONFIDENT IN OVERALL
TRENDS HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...PARTICULARLY WITH
CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PLENTY OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM QUITE HEAVY. THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SUCH FOG. POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS NEAR 1/4
MILE AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SHORT-TERM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCA STILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS. CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT WNA
WAVE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS SOUTHERLY
BIAS. OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS IMPACTING VISIBILITIES.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG EXPECTED WITH VERY HUMID AIR
CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE POOR VSBYS AT TIMES...AND 1/4 MILE
VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
SATURDAY...BUT BE PRIMARILY 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THE STEADY WIND
DIRECTION WILL HELP BUILD SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 10 FEET
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND EXPOSED PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SOUNDS SUCH AS RI SOUND AND POSSIBLY BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY. RADAR ESTIMATED
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 6 IN PER HOUR WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT. FORTUNATELY THESE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED
PROGRESSIVE AND DID NOT LINGER OVER ANY ONE LOCATION FOR VERY
LONG. THESE RAINFALL RATES DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WITHIN THIS SOUPY AIRMASS.
WILL NEED TO ESPECIALLY WATCH REGIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
UPSLOPE COULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL AS WELL AS URBANIZED AREAS...
WHERE CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO URBAN FLASH FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL BE
ADDING TO THE ALREADY HIGH MONTHLY TOTALS FOR RAIN. BELOW PLEASE
FIND THE TOP 10 WETTEST JUNE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR EACH OF OUR FOUR
CLIMATE SITES...THESE INCLUDE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR JUNE 2013 ENDING
AT MIDNIGHT THE MORNING OF JUNE 27.
BOSTON...
1. 13.20 INCHES IN 1982
2. 11.58 INCHES IN 1998
3. 10.09 INCHES IN 2006
4. 9.87 INCHES IN 2013
5. 9.13 INCHES IN 1931
6. 8.63 INCHES IN 1959
7. 8.05 INCHES IN 1922
8. 7.79 INCHES IN 1881
9. 7.74 INCHES IN 1986
10. 7.25 INCHES IN 1875
HARTFORD...
1. 13.60 INCHES IN 1982
2. 10.62 INCHES IN 2013
3. 9.66 INCHES IN 1972
4. 9.16 INCHES IN 2006
5. 8.08 INCHES IN 1937
6. 8.00 INCHES IN 1920
7. 7.79 INCHES IN 1948
8. 7.18 INCHES IN 1998
9. 6.92 INCHES IN 1922
10. 6.79 INCHES IN 1986
PROVIDENCE...
1. 11.08 INCHES IN 1982
2. 9.61 INCHES IN 1998
3. 9.39 INCHES IN 2013
4. 9.24 INCHES IN 2006
5. 7.21 INCHES IN 1938
6. 6.83 INCHES IN 1978
7. 6.80 INCHES IN 1920
8. 6.72 INCHES IN 2001
9. 6.58 INCHES IN 1922
10. 5.84 INCHES IN 1989
WORCESTER...
1. 12.17 INCHES IN 1982
2. 9.68 INCHES IN 1998
3. 9.55 INCHES IN 2013
4. 9.25 INCHES IN 1972
5. 8.31 INCHES IN 1922
6. 7.78 INCHES IN 1968
7. 7.44 INCHES IN 1903
8. 7.39 INCHES IN 1938
9. 7.21 INCHES IN 1986
10. 6.98 INCHES IN 1973 & 1935
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/BELK
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...DUNTEN/BELK
MARINE...DUNTEN/BELK
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
446 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 AM UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST TREND REMAINS ON TRACK. HAVE
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SITUATION. APPEARS WARM FRONT IS
DRAPED FROM PROVINCETOWN THOUGH HARTFORD CT. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO
CONTINUE NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. WINDS GUSTS MAY
INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...UP TO
25KTS. PER VWP...LLJ IS STILL PUSHING THROUGH AS 925 VWP SHOW
AROUND 35-40 KTS. THE AXIS OF THE LLJ WILL TRANSITION MORE OVER
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. BEST REGION IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION.
TODAY...
*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ***
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH THE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY NORTHWARD INTO NH ALLOWING FOR GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ESP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. OTHERWISE BELIEVE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE DISSIPATING. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STILL BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE CAPE/EASTERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS A TAD BREEZY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS BY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN QUESTION IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK LATER ALLOWING FOR SOME
DIURNAL HEATING AND EVENTUALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE HI-RES WRF
AS WELL AS THE HRRR AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING
THIS FEATURE. IF THIS DOES PLAY OUT BELIEVE THE REGION THAT HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS AND WEST.
THIS REGION SHOWS THE BETTER INSTABILITY...UP TO 2000 J/KG
COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KTS AND LAPSE RATES OF 6
C/KM. ALSO HAVE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
BELIEVE THAT GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF THE REGION WITHIN THEIR
DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE HAVE ALSO BEEN PLACED IN A 2 PERCENT TORNADO
PROBABILITY. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ESP SINCE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH RATHER THAN THE WSW ALTHOUGH IT IS
SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER
FOG AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TRUE DIABATIC HEATING. RIGHT NOW EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THE SUN DOES PEAK OUT THEN
TEMPS MAY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE DOWN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. STILL LEFT SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS VERY HUMID AIRMASS IS STILL IN PLACE. MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP TO PUSH ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE LLJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
THE 28/00Z GUIDANCE. STILL DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
MESOSCALE DETAILS EVIDENT IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL. WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...DECIDED TO USE A CONSENSUS BLEND TO TREND THE EXISTING
FORECAST.
THIS SOLUTION WILL FEATURE STRONG RIDGES DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN USA AS WELL AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FORMS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THAT AREA. THIS UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY EJECTS INTO THE /CANADIAN/ WESTERLIES DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DAILIES...
SATURDAY... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND A GREAT LAKES UPPER
LOW AND CROSSES EASTERN NY/NEW ENGLAND. A SUPPORTING UPPER JET HAS
ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION AND PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES...HIGHEST SOUTHEAST. WE WILL
FEATURE HIGHER POPS. WE WILL ALSO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN
WITH CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND A
MOIST SOUTH FLOW CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS SNE. A MIXTURE OF IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FROM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
AFTER 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EARLY...IMPROVING TO MVFR/IFR EAST AND MVFR/PATCHY VFR WEST. OVERALL
IMPROVEMENTS BY LATE MORNING WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE MVFR OUT WEST IN ANY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM.
TONIGHT...VFR/MVFR WILL SLOWLY DROP TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE REGION IS
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. BEST REGION FOR LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONFIDENT IN OVERALL
TRENDS HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CONFIDENT IN OVERALL
TRENDS HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PLENTY OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM QUITE HEAVY. THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SUCH FOG. POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS NEAR 1/4
MILE AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SHORT-TERM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCA STILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS. CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT WNA
WAVE GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS SOUTHERLY
BIAS. OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS IMPACTING VISIBILITIES.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG EXPECTED WITH VERY HUMID AIR
CONTINUING. THERE WILL BE POOR VSBYS AT TIMES...AND 1/4 MILE
VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
SATURDAY...BUT BE PRIMARILY 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THE STEADY WIND
DIRECTION WILL HELP BUILD SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 10 FEET
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND EXPOSED PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SOUNDS SUCH AS RI SOUND AND POSSIBLY BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THESE ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY. RADAR ESTIMATED
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 6 IN PER HOUR WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT. FORTUNATELY THESE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED
PROGRESSIVE AND DID NOT LINGER OVER ANY ONE LOCATION FOR VERY
LONG. THESE RAINFALL RATES DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WITHIN THIS SOUPY AIRMASS.
WILL NEED TO ESPECIALLY WATCH REGIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
UPSLOPE COULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL AS WELL AS URBANIZED AREAS...
WHERE CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO URBAN FLASH FLOODING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL BE
ADDING TO THE ALREADY HIGH MONTHLY TOTALS FOR RAIN. BELOW PLEASE
FIND THE TOP 10 WETTEST JUNE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR EACH OF OUR FOUR
CLIMATE SITES...THESE INCLUDE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR JUNE 2013 ENDING
AT MIDNIGHT THE MORNING OF JUNE 27.
BOSTON...
1. 13.20 INCHES IN 1982
2. 11.58 INCHES IN 1998
3. 10.09 INCHES IN 2006
4. 9.87 INCHES IN 2013
5. 9.13 INCHES IN 1931
6. 8.63 INCHES IN 1959
7. 8.05 INCHES IN 1922
8. 7.79 INCHES IN 1881
9. 7.74 INCHES IN 1986
10. 7.25 INCHES IN 1875
HARTFORD...
1. 13.60 INCHES IN 1982
2. 10.62 INCHES IN 2013
3. 9.66 INCHES IN 1972
4. 9.16 INCHES IN 2006
5. 8.08 INCHES IN 1937
6. 8.00 INCHES IN 1920
7. 7.79 INCHES IN 1948
8. 7.18 INCHES IN 1998
9. 6.92 INCHES IN 1922
10. 6.79 INCHES IN 1986
PROVIDENCE...
1. 11.08 INCHES IN 1982
2. 9.61 INCHES IN 1998
3. 9.39 INCHES IN 2013
4. 9.24 INCHES IN 2006
5. 7.21 INCHES IN 1938
6. 6.83 INCHES IN 1978
7. 6.80 INCHES IN 1920
8. 6.72 INCHES IN 2001
9. 6.58 INCHES IN 1922
10. 5.84 INCHES IN 1989
WORCESTER...
1. 12.17 INCHES IN 1982
2. 9.68 INCHES IN 1998
3. 9.55 INCHES IN 2013
4. 9.25 INCHES IN 1972
5. 8.31 INCHES IN 1922
6. 7.78 INCHES IN 1968
7. 7.44 INCHES IN 1903
8. 7.39 INCHES IN 1938
9. 7.21 INCHES IN 1986
10. 6.98 INCHES IN 1973 & 1935
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/BELK
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...DUNTEN/BELK
MARINE...DUNTEN/BELK
HYDROLOGY...BELK
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
CURRENT/TONIGHT...SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE ENE MAINLY N
OF LAKE KISSIMMEE-CAPE CANAVERAL LINE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR SRN BREVARD/SRN OSCEOLA AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST INTO THIS EVENING. LOW LVL
SW FLOW WILL HOLD OFF THE SEA BRZ NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WITH SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY JUST MAKING IT ONTO THE MAINLAND ALONG THE SRN
TREASURE COAST. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST EVENING POPS NEAR THE COAST
AND SRN SECTIONS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY
PAST 8 PM ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR. HRRR MODEL INDICATES MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TREASURE COAST
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG EVENING STORMS WITH
STRONG WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SAT-MON...A STORMY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP EACH AFTERNOON AS DEEP AND
MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN MID LAYER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SE STATES ALLOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST EACH DAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR SATURDAY...WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS NORTH NEAR THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA AND ALSO ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM SOUTH FL. FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL GO WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY (60 PCT) WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED ESPEC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S. STEERING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SW AT 15-20 KNOTS ON SAT
AND 20-25 KNOTS MAKING FOR FASTER NE STORM MOTION TOWARD THE COAST
AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS EACH DAY. STRONG STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. BOATERS AND
BEACHGOERS SHOULD CHECK THE RADAR AND FORECAST BEFORE HEADING TO THE
BEACH...INTRACOASTAL WATERS OR ATLC THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
TUE-THU...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL DAMPEN OUT THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE H30-H20 JET SHIFTS FROM A SLIGHT DIGGING TO A
FULL LIFTING ORIENTATION. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL RESPOND BY DRIFTING
BACK N INTO CENTRAL FL. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENING STEERING FLOW
THAT WILL BACK TO THE S/SE...PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. INCREASING LOW/MID LVL SUPPRESSION AND WEAKENING
STEERING FLOW WILL DECREASE PRECIP COVERAGE BACK TO SCT COVERAGE.
NO SIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MAX TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF CLIMO AVG
(L90S) AREAWIDE. DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ALONG THE
COAST BTWN 3-5F ABV AVG (M/U70S)...INTERIOR MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG
(L/M70S).
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFFECTING NRN TERMINALS SHOULD
TRANSITION SOUTH THIS EVENING FROM KMLB-KVRB FROM 20Z-23Z AND
KFPR-KSUA FROM 21Z-24Z. MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY
TSRA THIS AFTN/EVENING. SCT/NMRS TSRA WILL AFFECT E CENTRAL FL
TERMINALS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...MAINLY AFT 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
INCREASING SSW/SW WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE MAINLAND TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
OFFSHORE EACH DAY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR SMALL CRAFT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH SEAS TO 4-5 FT...LOWER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN HIGH INTO MONDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SE FLOW BY WED/THU OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 91 75 90 / 30 60 50 60
MCO 74 92 74 91 / 20 60 50 60
MLB 75 91 77 89 / 30 50 40 60
VRB 75 91 76 89 / 30 50 40 60
LEE 76 92 76 91 / 20 60 50 60
SFB 76 92 76 92 / 20 60 50 60
ORL 76 92 76 92 / 20 60 50 60
FPR 75 91 75 90 / 30 40 30 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT-LONG TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
RADAR/IMPACT WX UPDATES....SEDLOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
222 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY INFLUENCED BY THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WHICH STRETCHES ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MAINTAINING A STEERING FLOW THAT IS
NEARLY NONEXISTENT WITH ERRATIC STORM MOTION. HOWEVER, AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WHICH IN TURN WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY TONIGHT. HINTS OF THIS OCCURRING ARE
BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE RADAR AND SATELLITE SIGNATURES WITH A
VERY SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HRRR IS COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH THAT THINKING ALSO. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THE HRRR ALSO IS
SHOWING GOOD DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z WHICH HAS YET TO OCCUR SO TRENDED
LATER WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH DEEPENING
IT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST METRO REGION. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH STORM
MOTION WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS AND RELATIVELY WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH
DEEPENING EVEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING
UP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AS MASSIVE RIDGES WILL BE IN EXISTENCE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AN EVEN STRONGER DEEP SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. IN FACT,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AROUND 20 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE LOW
LEVELS FROM ABOUT 2-7K FEET AND THIS ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STILL NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDER.
THE KEY FACTOR WILL BE IF A EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WITH SUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE PWAT IS
FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES SO CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
REMAIN HIGH BUT THERE COULD BE ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME HOWEVER, BOTH THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING
VERY HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDER. SO FOR THE TIME BEING WILL NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER GUIDANCE
TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER TO LOWER CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING
STRIKES. ALL IN ALL THOUGH, IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET WEEKEND
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
VERY SLOW RETROGRESSION TO THE WEST IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
EVER SO SLOWLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. SO FOR TUESDAY,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A STEERING FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY
AND THEN RETURNING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. THE PWAT WILL REMAIN AT NEAR TWO INCHES ALL OF NEXT WEEK
SO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN HIGH BUT SHIFT BACK TO THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTH, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MORE CHAOTIC. THE BERMUDA HIGH HAS WEAKENED, ALLOWING FOR
MORE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THIS HAS JUST LEAD TO MANY SMALL, WEAK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, RATHER THAN LARGE STRONG STORMS. GIVEN
THIS, HAVE REDUCED COVERAGE OF VCTS IN THE TAF SITES FROM KFLL
NORTH, ALTHOUGH, THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED BACK IN LATER TODAY.
WITH ACTIVITY PERSISTING FROM KOPF, SOUTH, HAVE KEPT THE VCTS IN,
AS WELL AS FOR KAPF. WINDS, DUE TO THE CONVECTION, HAVE ALSO BEEN
CHAOTIC TODAY. HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AS CONVECTION
WANES ALONG THE COAST, WHICH APPEARS SOME SITES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
THE SHIFT. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. TOMORROW WILL SEE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL BE MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY
BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE IN SPEED AS A STRONG TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. A SCEC STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS
AS SPEEDS COULD INCREASE IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 89 77 89 / 50 50 30 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 88 79 89 / 50 50 40 70
MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 40 40 40 70
NAPLES 75 91 76 91 / 20 40 30 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1041 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.UPDATE...
CHANGES ARE NOT BEING PLANNED AT THIS TIME FOR THE MORNING
UPDATES. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS THE WIND FIELD REMAINS VERY
WEAK BUT MODELS SHOW THIS PATTERN CHANGING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
A SLIGHTLY MORE SW-NE STEERING FLOW DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HAS DEVELOPED A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ABOVE 20K FEET AND THIS
REFLECTED IN THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS BY SHOWING THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TYPE SHOWERS
NEAR BOTH COASTS AND THEN SPORADIC MOVEMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WITH A SLOW MIGRATION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON LATER
CONDITIONS, THE MAIN AFTERNOON FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED
SLIGHTLY FOR THE TRENDS AT THAT TIME.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO START MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 17Z. FOR APF INCLUDED VCTS THIS MORNING SINCE THE
FLOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE
WEST COAST AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE ALSO PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BUT
THEY ARE HAVING MORE DIFFICULTY PENETRATING INLAND AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, INCLUDED VCSH FOR TMB UNTIL 17Z SINCE
SHOWERS CAN SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WILL GET
REINFORCED AND DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AREAS OF VORTICITY ROTATE AROUND A MEAN CENTER...AND
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE REGION AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND
THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SO THIS MEANS A GENERALLY WETTER
PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT LATER START TO THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE FLOW OFF
THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND STORMS SHOULD DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST
COAST IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS ACROSS THE NAPLES REGION
TODAY AS SHOWERS CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOVE EAST.
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...THE BEST FORCING WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. GFS POPS HAVE THUS COME DOWN AS WELL. ONLY
DROPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN MOVING FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
AREA WIDE. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE NORMALLY THE CASE FOR THE EAST COAST AREAS DUE TO
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BEING HELD OFFSHORE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...AND RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO
THE WEST IN THE EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE FLOW
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST. SO THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT BACK TO
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.
MARINE...
A GENERAL SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AT SPEEDS OF 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. THUS, SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE PENINSULA.
FIRE WEATHER...
A WET PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 88 77 / 60 50 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 89 79 / 60 50 50 40
MIAMI 89 77 90 78 / 50 40 40 40
NAPLES 90 75 89 76 / 30 20 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
433 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE: LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SUBSIDENCE
STILL IN EFFECT...ALTHOUGH CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. BASED ON CURRENT 88D REGIONAL RADAR
TRENDS...EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT. CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC INTO THE MTS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS
GA DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND SOUTHERN GA. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA BY EARLY EVENING AND UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
WITH DEWPOINTS TEMPERATURES NEAR/ARND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF TO DEEPEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE FRONT AND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE/SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TRIGGERS AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DIURNAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER... BY THURSDAY THE TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AREA
REDUCING THE CHANGE OF RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE FLOW/SUBSIDENCE. CLOUD BASES AROUND 4000
FEET WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION.
OPTIMUM PERIOD FOR CONVECTION FROM 28/23Z TO 29/06Z. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUP IN TAFS FOR EVENING CONVECTION. THE NAM AND RUC MODELS ARE
INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...HAVE NOT INCLUDED EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THROUGH THU JUNE 28TH...AUGUSTA GA BUSH FIELD HAS RECEIVED A
TOTAL OF 10.52 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS
HAS ALREADY ESTABLISHED JUNE 2013 AS THE 2ND WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD AT AUGUSTA. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD AT AUGUSTA IS 10.59
INCHES SET IN 2004...SO TO ESTABLISH JUNE 2013 AS THE WETTEST JUNE
ON RECORD AT AUGUSTA...AGS NEEDS TO RECEIVE 0.08 MORE INCHES OF
RAIN THIS MONTH. ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT KEEP RECORDS FOR DANIEL
FIELD...IT HAS RECEIVED 13.47 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR FOR JUNE.
QUITE A DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE FROM LAST JUNE AS AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD
ONLY RECEIVED 2.48 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
156 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
STILL IN EFFECT...ALTHOUGH CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...
WHILE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR
ENTERING OUR REGION EARLY TODAY...BUT MAINTAIN INDICATIONS OF AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND BATCH OF CONVECTION SETTING UP TO OUR WEST
AND NORTHWEST WHICH DRIFTS INTO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS EVENING.
NOT MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED BEFORE 21Z THOUGH...WITH TRIGGER
LACKING/HIGH LFC...BUT AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.
SO EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE
WATER ACROSS THE EAST MIDLANDS LATE. WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS MIDLANDS THIS EVENING
AND SUPPORT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOCAL
WRF/SREF/SPC WRF...WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.
SHEAR APPEARS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES
WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION/MORE INSOLATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF TO DEEPEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE FRONT AND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE/SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TRIGGERS AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DIURNAL.
&&
.LONG TERM / MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...
BY THURSDAY THE TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AREA REDUCING THE CHANGE OF RAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THE DAY AND IN THE LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE FLOW/SUBSIDENCE. CLOUD BASES AROUND 4000 FEET
WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION.
OPTIMUM PERIOD FOR CONVECTION FROM 28/23Z TO 29/06Z. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUP IN TAFS FOR EVENING CONVECTION. THE NAM AND RUC MODELS ARE
INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...HAVE NOT INCLUDED EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THROUGH THU JUNE 27TH...AUGUSTA GA BUSH FIELD HAS RECEIVED A
TOTAL OF 10.52 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS
HAS ALREADY ESTABLISHED JUNE 2013 AS THE 2ND WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD AT AUGUSTA. THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD AT AUGUSTA IS 10.59
INCHES SET IN 2004...SO TO ESTABLISH JUNE 2013 AS THE WETTEST JUNE
ON RECORD AT AUGUSTA...AGS NEEDS TO RECEIVE 0.08 MORE INCHES OF
RAIN THIS MONTH.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
309 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
230 PM CDT
MONITORING GUSTY STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IL. A
COUPLE ARCS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE. THIS LEADING EDGE HAS AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO WORK WITH GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CONVECTIVE TEMPS PER MORNING SOUNDINGS AND AMDAR
DATA. NICE INVERTED-V SHAPE SOUNDINGS ARE PRESENT UP TO 5000-6000
FT WITH ASSOCIATED DOWNDRAFT CAPE ANALYZED BY THE RAP IN EXCESS OF
800 J/KG. THE STORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANE NOW HAS PRODUCED A
46 MPH GUST AT DEKALB...AN ESTIMATED 50 MPH GUST AT HINKLEY...AND
A MEASURED 52 MPH GUST AT AURORA. THIS IS THE MOST ORGANIZED
STORM BUT ANY OF THESE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS ON THESE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE A
BRIEF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ON THESE
LEADING TWO ARCS.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
1135 AM CDT
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT AND CURRENT
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND CLOUD TRENDS.
A SMALL VORT MAX IN THE NW UPPER FLOW DROPPED SE TO SE WI
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME MINOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TS. BUT MID
MORNING IT HAD MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND IS CURRENTLY
UPPER APPROACHING THE SW SHORE OF LOWER MI AND WILL NOT POSE ANY
THREAT OF SHRA OR TS TO THE LOCAL AREA.
UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX HAS BEEN QUICKLY DROPPING SSE FROM E CENTRAL MN TO
W CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING. NAM12 AND RUC13 SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND TURN IT MORE SE AS IT STARTS TO ENTER
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST E TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND S TO THE MID MS...OH...AND TN VALLEYS...AND THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
EXTRAPOLATION OF RECENT MOVEMENT OF THE WI SHORT WAVE IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH ABOVE MENTIONED MODELS BRINGING THE THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH S OF THE WI BORDER BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z. SIGNIFICANT MID
LEVEL COOLING OCCUR ED SINCE YESTERDAY AND WHILE MODELS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SHOW WARMING DURING THE DAY BY 29.00Z THERE IS STILL A
DEEP ALBEIT MUCH NARROW AREA OF CAPE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THAN THIS
MORNING. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED BY
NOON EXPECT TO SEE QUICK CU DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TOWARD NORTHERN IL AND NW IN.
AS OF 1125 AM CDT RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP SHOWED ONLY SCATTERED SMALL
LIGHT SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL HEATING AVAILABLE THROUGH DECREASING ML-CAPE OF 1200
TO 2000 J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OVER THE AREA AND DECENT UVV
IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FEEL THAT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDY COVER TO BROKEN OR
NEAR OVERCAST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TO LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALSO A SOME THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING.
TRS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
339 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A BRIEF
DRY PERIOD EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO EXPECTED IS A COOL PERIOD
AS NORTH FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND STRETCHES BACK
TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SINK SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL
JET EXIT WILL ALSO BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE LEFT
JET EXIT REGION OVERHEAD DURING PRIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. LONG
SKINNY CAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST AND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL
AT BEST...10 KT OR SO. THEREFORE EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS TO
SPROUT FIRST ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE AROUND NOON AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE COMES THROUGH EXPECTING THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF A NORTHWEST BOONE COUNTY TO
SOUTH CENTRAL IROQUOIS COUNTY LINE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WEST OF THAT LINE AS WELL...BUT THINKING THE
STRONGER STORMS AND BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF THE LINE.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PULSEY AND UNORGANIZED AS THERE IS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CAPE BUT NOT ENOUGH SHEAR FOR LONG LIVED ORGANIZED STORMS.
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ENJOY THE TEMPS TODAY BECAUSE A COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WINDS TURN NORTH SATURDAY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS
WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO. CAPE WILL BE VERY LOW ON
SATURDAY WITH MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AVAILABLE. SHEAR WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT THINKING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW.
THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN THICK
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES A BIT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY HELP A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ON SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE AND A RAIN OUT IS NOT EXPECTED.
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS A BIT
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BUT CLOUDS SHOULD THIN SUNDAY NIGHT
SO WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA REACHING THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT. AS SUCH LEFT PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
HOWEVER LOOKING LIKE WE MIGHT SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* PERIODS OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH 22Z. SOME STORMS MAY
HAVE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
* MVFR CIGS ARRIVING THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
FOR LATE JUNE...FOR IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
* NORTHWEST WINDS TURN NORTH LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* CHANCE FOR SHRA ON SAT AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TAF SITES INTO
THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER LIKELY. SOME OF THESE INDIVIDUAL STORMS/SHOWERS COULD BE
GUSTY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...PUTTING OUT GUST FRONTS THAT WILL
EXTEND A WAYS FROM THE ACTUAL RAIN. COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 70 PERCENT ACROSS CHICAGOLAND FROM 20Z-23Z. COVERAGE WILL
BE SLOW TO WANE THROUGH 02Z-04Z THOUGH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW THE THUNDER THREAT TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVE. NW WINDS
WILL TURN NNE AT SOME POINT TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING REMAINS LOW. WINDS LOOK TO BE NNE TO NE ON SAT...AT LEAST
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF SHRA AND TSRA...ALTHOUGH TIMES OF
SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD MAY BE BRIEF.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR ARRIVING AT SOME POINT THIS EVE AND
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR DURATION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED. WINDS MAY TURN
SHARPLY NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA SAT AFTERNOON.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
305 PM CDT
A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK AND THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WEST FROM
THIS LOW THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE...USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. IN GENERAL...WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONGEST..TO 25KT...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS WHEN WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE...AND REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHTER WINDS BEFORE
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BY MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...4 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM
MONDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...9 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM
MONDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
258 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
230 PM CDT
MONITORING GUSTY STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IL. A
COUPLE ARCS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE. THIS LEADING EDGE HAS AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO WORK WITH GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CONVECTIVE TEMPS PER MORNING SOUNDINGS AND AMDAR
DATA. NICE INVERTED-V SHAPE SOUNDINGS ARE PRESENT UP TO 5000-6000
FT WITH ASSOCIATED DOWNDRAFT CAPE ANALYZED BY THE RAP IN EXCESS OF
800 J/KG. THE STORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANE NOW HAS PRODUCED A
46 MPH GUST AT DEKALB...AN ESTIMATED 50 MPH GUST AT HINKLEY...AND
A MEASURED 52 MPH GUST AT AURORA. THIS IS THE MOST ORGANIZED
STORM BUT ANY OF THESE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS ON THESE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE A
BRIEF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ON THESE
LEADING TWO ARCS.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
1135 AM CDT
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT AND CURRENT
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND CLOUD TRENDS.
A SMALL VORT MAX IN THE NW UPPER FLOW DROPPED SE TO SE WI
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME MINOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TS. BUT MID
MORNING IT HAD MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND IS CURRENTLY
UPPER APPROACHING THE SW SHORE OF LOWER MI AND WILL NOT POSE ANY
THREAT OF SHRA OR TS TO THE LOCAL AREA.
UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX HAS BEEN QUICKLY DROPPING SSE FROM E CENTRAL MN TO
W CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING. NAM12 AND RUC13 SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND TURN IT MORE SE AS IT STARTS TO ENTER
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST E TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND S TO THE MID MS...OH...AND TN VALLEYS...AND THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
EXTRAPOLATION OF RECENT MOVEMENT OF THE WI SHORT WAVE IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH ABOVE MENTIONED MODELS BRINGING THE THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH S OF THE WI BORDER BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z. SIGNIFICANT MID
LEVEL COOLING OCCUR ED SINCE YESTERDAY AND WHILE MODELS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SHOW WARMING DURING THE DAY BY 29.00Z THERE IS STILL A
DEEP ALBEIT MUCH NARROW AREA OF CAPE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THAN THIS
MORNING. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED BY
NOON EXPECT TO SEE QUICK CU DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TOWARD NORTHERN IL AND NW IN.
AS OF 1125 AM CDT RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP SHOWED ONLY SCATTERED SMALL
LIGHT SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL HEATING AVAILABLE THROUGH DECREASING ML-CAPE OF 1200
TO 2000 J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OVER THE AREA AND DECENT UVV
IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FEEL THAT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDY COVER TO BROKEN OR
NEAR OVERCAST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TO LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALSO A SOME THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING.
TRS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
339 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A BRIEF
DRY PERIOD EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO EXPECTED IS A COOL PERIOD
AS NORTH FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND STRETCHES BACK
TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SINK SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL
JET EXIT WILL ALSO BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE LEFT
JET EXIT REGION OVERHEAD DURING PRIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. LONG
SKINNY CAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST AND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL
AT BEST...10 KT OR SO. THEREFORE EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS TO
SPROUT FIRST ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE AROUND NOON AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE COMES THROUGH EXPECTING THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF A NORTHWEST BOONE COUNTY TO
SOUTH CENTRAL IROQUOIS COUNTY LINE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WEST OF THAT LINE AS WELL...BUT THINKING THE
STRONGER STORMS AND BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF THE LINE.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PULSEY AND UNORGANIZED AS THERE IS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CAPE BUT NOT ENOUGH SHEAR FOR LONG LIVED ORGANIZED STORMS.
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ENJOY THE TEMPS TODAY BECAUSE A COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WINDS TURN NORTH SATURDAY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS
WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO. CAPE WILL BE VERY LOW ON
SATURDAY WITH MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AVAILABLE. SHEAR WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT THINKING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW.
THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN THICK
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES A BIT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY HELP A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ON SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE AND A RAIN OUT IS NOT EXPECTED.
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS A BIT
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BUT CLOUDS SHOULD THIN SUNDAY NIGHT
SO WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA REACHING THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT. AS SUCH LEFT PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
HOWEVER LOOKING LIKE WE MIGHT SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* PERIODS OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH 22Z. SOME STORMS MAY
HAVE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
* MVFR CIGS ARRIVING THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
FOR LATE JUNE...FOR IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
* NORTHWEST WINDS TURN NORTH LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* CHANCE FOR SHRA ON SAT AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TAF SITES INTO
THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER LIKELY. SOME OF THESE INDIVIDUAL STORMS/SHOWERS COULD BE
GUSTY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...PUTTING OUT GUST FRONTS THAT WILL
EXTEND A WAYS FROM THE ACTUAL RAIN. COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 70 PERCENT ACROSS CHICAGOLAND FROM 20Z-23Z. COVERAGE WILL
BE SLOW TO WANE THROUGH 02Z-04Z THOUGH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW THE THUNDER THREAT TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVE. NW WINDS
WILL TURN NNE AT SOME POINT TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING REMAINS LOW. WINDS LOOK TO BE NNE TO NE ON SAT...AT LEAST
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF SHRA AND TSRA...ALTHOUGH TIMES OF
SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD MAY BE BRIEF.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR ARRIVING AT SOME POINT THIS EVE AND
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR DURATION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED. WINDS MAY TURN
SHARPLY NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA SAT AFTERNOON.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD UP
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER WEAKER LOW
CIRCULATION NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WHILE THE LOW NEAR LAKE HURON PIVOTS
EASTWARD DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT BY EVENING AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE EASING LATER SUNDAY. WHILE MIXING
WILL LIKELY BE MUTED BY THE STRONG MARINE LAYER THE GRADIENT WILL BE
RATHER STRONG SO 20-25 KT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL SET UP A
LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE FOR ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD...LIKELY TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL STARTING SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
RETURN.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...4 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM
MONDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...9 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM
MONDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
232 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
230 PM CDT
MONITORING GUSTY STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IL. A
COUPLE ARCS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE. THIS LEADING EDGE HAS AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO WORK WITH GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CONVECTIVE TEMPS PER MORNING SOUNDINGS AND AMDAR
DATA. NICE INVERTED-V SHAPE SOUNDINGS ARE PRESENT UP TO 5000-6000
FT WITH ASSOCIATED DOWNDRAFT CAPE ANALYZED BY THE RAP IN EXCESS OF
800 J/KG. THE STORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANE NOW HAS PRODUCED A
46 MPH GUST AT DEKALB...AN ESTIMATED 50 MPH GUST AT HINKLEY...AND
A MEASURED 52 MPH GUST AT AURORA. THIS IS THE MOST ORGANIZED
STORM BUT ANY OF THESE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS ON THESE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE A
BRIEF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ON THESE
LEADING TWO ARCS.
MTF
&&
.DISCUSSION...
1135 AM CDT
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT AND CURRENT
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND CLOUD TRENDS.
A SMALL VORT MAX IN THE NW UPPER FLOW DROPPED SE TO SE WI
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME MINOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TS. BUT MID
MORNING IT HAD MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND IS CURRENTLY
UPPER APPROACHING THE SW SHORE OF LOWER MI AND WILL NOT POSE ANY
THREAT OF SHRA OR TS TO THE LOCAL AREA.
UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX HAS BEEN QUICKLY DROPPING SSE FROM E CENTRAL MN TO
W CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING. NAM12 AND RUC13 SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND TURN IT MORE SE AS IT STARTS TO ENTER
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST E TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND S TO THE MID MS...OH...AND TN VALLEYS...AND THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
EXTRAPOLATION OF RECENT MOVEMENT OF THE WI SHORT WAVE IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH ABOVE MENTIONED MODELS BRINGING THE THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH S OF THE WI BORDER BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z. SIGNIFICANT MID
LEVEL COOLING OCCUR ED SINCE YESTERDAY AND WHILE MODELS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SHOW WARMING DURING THE DAY BY 29.00Z THERE IS STILL A
DEEP ALBEIT MUCH NARROW AREA OF CAPE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THAN THIS
MORNING. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED BY
NOON EXPECT TO SEE QUICK CU DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TOWARD NORTHERN IL AND NW IN.
AS OF 1125 AM CDT RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP SHOWED ONLY SCATTERED SMALL
LIGHT SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL HEATING AVAILABLE THROUGH DECREASING ML-CAPE OF 1200
TO 2000 J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OVER THE AREA AND DECENT UVV
IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FEEL THAT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDY COVER TO BROKEN OR
NEAR OVERCAST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TO LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALSO A SOME THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING.
TRS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
339 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A BRIEF
DRY PERIOD EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO EXPECTED IS A COOL PERIOD
AS NORTH FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND STRETCHES BACK
TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SINK SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL
JET EXIT WILL ALSO BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE LEFT
JET EXIT REGION OVERHEAD DURING PRIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. LONG
SKINNY CAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST AND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL
AT BEST...10 KT OR SO. THEREFORE EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS TO
SPROUT FIRST ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE AROUND NOON AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE COMES THROUGH EXPECTING THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF A NORTHWEST BOONE COUNTY TO
SOUTH CENTRAL IROQUOIS COUNTY LINE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WEST OF THAT LINE AS WELL...BUT THINKING THE
STRONGER STORMS AND BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF THE LINE.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PULSEY AND UNORGANIZED AS THERE IS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CAPE BUT NOT ENOUGH SHEAR FOR LONG LIVED ORGANIZED STORMS.
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ENJOY THE TEMPS TODAY BECAUSE A COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WINDS TURN NORTH SATURDAY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS
WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO. CAPE WILL BE VERY LOW ON
SATURDAY WITH MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AVAILABLE. SHEAR WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT THINKING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW.
THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN THICK
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES A BIT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY HELP A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ON SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE AND A RAIN OUT IS NOT EXPECTED.
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS A BIT
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BUT CLOUDS SHOULD THIN SUNDAY NIGHT
SO WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA REACHING THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT. AS SUCH LEFT PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
HOWEVER LOOKING LIKE WE MIGHT SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* PERIODS OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA AFTER 1930Z. SOME STORMS MAY
HAVE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
* MVFR CIGS ARRIVING THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
FOR LATE JUNE...FOR IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
* NORTHWEST WINDS TURN NORTH LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* CHANCE FOR SHRA ON SAT AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TAF SITES INTO
THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER LIKELY. SOME OF THESE INDIVIDUAL STORMS/SHOWERS COULD BE
GUSTY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...PUTTING OUT GUST FRONTS THAT WILL
EXTEND A WAYS FROM THE ACTUAL RAIN. COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 70 PERCENT ACROSS CHICAGOLAND FROM 20Z-23Z. COVERAGE WILL
BE SLOW TO WANE THROUGH 02Z-04Z THOUGH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW THE THUNDER THREAT TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVE. NW WINDS
WILL TURN NNE AT SOME POINT TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING REMAINS LOW. WINDS LOOK TO BE NNE TO NE ON SAT...AT LEAST
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WINDOW OF SHRA AND TSRA...ALTHOUGH TIMES OF
SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD MAY BE BRIEF.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR ARRIVING AT SOME POINT THIS EVE AND
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR DURATION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED. WINDS MAY TURN
SHARPLY NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA SAT AFTERNOON.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD UP
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER WEAKER LOW
CIRCULATION NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WHILE THE LOW NEAR LAKE HURON PIVOTS
EASTWARD DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT BY EVENING AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE EASING LATER SUNDAY. WHILE MIXING
WILL LIKELY BE MUTED BY THE STRONG MARINE LAYER THE GRADIENT WILL BE
RATHER STRONG SO 20-25 KT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL SET UP A
LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE FOR ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD...LIKELY TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL STARTING SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
RETURN.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
107 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
1135 AM CDT
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT AND CURRENT
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND CLOUD TRENDS.
A SMALL VORT MAX IN THE NW UPPER FLOW DROPPED SE TO SE WI
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME MINOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TS. BUT MID
MORNING IT HAD MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND IS CURRENTLY
UPPER APPROACHING THE SW SHORE OF LOWER MI AND WILL NOT POSE ANY
THREAT OF SHRA OR TS TO THE LOCAL AREA.
UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX HAS BEEN QUICKLY DROPPING SSE FROM E CENTRAL MN TO
W CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING. NAM12 AND RUC13 SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND TURN IT MORE SE AS IT STARTS TO ENTER
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST E TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND S TO THE MID MS...OH...AND TN VALLEYS...AND THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
EXTRAPOLATION OF RECENT MOVEMENT OF THE WI SHORT WAVE IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH ABOVE MENTIONED MODELS BRINGING THE THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH S OF THE WI BORDER BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z. SIGNIFICANT MID
LEVEL COOLING OCCUR ED SINCE YESTERDAY AND WHILE MODELS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SHOW WARMING DURING THE DAY BY 29.00Z THERE IS STILL A
DEEP ALBEIT MUCH NARROW AREA OF CAPE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THAN THIS
MORNING. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED BY
NOON EXPECT TO SEE QUICK CU DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TOWARD NORTHERN IL AND NW IN.
AS OF 1125 AM CDT RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP SHOWED ONLY SCATTERED SMALL
LIGHT SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL HEATING AVAILABLE THROUGH DECREASING ML-CAPE OF 1200
TO 2000 J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OVER THE AREA AND DECENT UVV
IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FEEL THAT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDY COVER TO BROKEN OR
NEAR OVERCAST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TO LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALSO A SOME THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING.
TRS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
339 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A BRIEF
DRY PERIOD EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO EXPECTED IS A COOL PERIOD
AS NORTH FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND STRETCHES BACK
TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SINK SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL
JET EXIT WILL ALSO BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE LEFT
JET EXIT REGION OVERHEAD DURING PRIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. LONG
SKINNY CAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST AND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL
AT BEST...10 KT OR SO. THEREFORE EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS TO
SPROUT FIRST ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE AROUND NOON AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE COMES THROUGH EXPECTING THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF A NORTHWEST BOONE COUNTY TO
SOUTH CENTRAL IROQUOIS COUNTY LINE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WEST OF THAT LINE AS WELL...BUT THINKING THE
STRONGER STORMS AND BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF THE LINE.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PULSEY AND UNORGANIZED AS THERE IS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CAPE BUT NOT ENOUGH SHEAR FOR LONG LIVED ORGANIZED STORMS.
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ENJOY THE TEMPS TODAY BECAUSE A COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WINDS TURN NORTH SATURDAY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS
WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO. CAPE WILL BE VERY LOW ON
SATURDAY WITH MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AVAILABLE. SHEAR WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT THINKING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW.
THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN THICK
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES A BIT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY HELP A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ON SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE AND A RAIN OUT IS NOT EXPECTED.
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS A BIT
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BUT CLOUDS SHOULD THIN SUNDAY NIGHT
SO WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA REACHING THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT. AS SUCH LEFT PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
HOWEVER LOOKING LIKE WE MIGHT SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* PERIODS OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA AFTER 1930Z. SOME STORMS MAY
HAVE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
* MVFR CIGS ARRIVING THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
FOR LATE JUNE...FOR IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
* NORTHWEST WINDS TURN NORTH LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* CHANCE FOR SHRA ON SAT AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TAF SITES INTO
THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER LIKELY. SOME OF THESE INDIVIDUAL STORMS/SHOWERS COULD BE
GUSTY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...PUTTING OUT GUST FRONTS THAT WILL
EXTEND A WAYS FROM THE ACTUAL RAIN. COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
AROUND 70 PERCENT ACROSS CHICAGOLAND FROM 20Z-23Z. COVERAGE WILL
BE SLOW TO WANE THROUGH 02Z-04Z THOUGH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW THE THUNDER THREAT TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVE. NW WINDS
WILL TURN NNE AT SOME POINT TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING REMAINS LOW. WINDS LOOK TO BE NNE TO NE ON SAT...AT LEAST
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WINDOW OF SHRA AND TSRA...ALTHOUGH TIMES OF
SHRA/TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD MAY BE BRIEF.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR ARRIVING AT SOME POINT THIS EVE AND
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR DURATION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED. WINDS MAY TURN
SHARPLY NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA SAT AFTERNOON.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND VFR.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD UP
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER WEAKER LOW
CIRCULATION NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WHILE THE LOW NEAR LAKE HURON PIVOTS
EASTWARD DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT BY EVENING AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE EASING LATER SUNDAY. WHILE MIXING
WILL LIKELY BE MUTED BY THE STRONG MARINE LAYER THE GRADIENT WILL BE
RATHER STRONG SO 20-25 KT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL SET UP A
LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE FOR ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD...LIKELY TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL STARTING SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
RETURN.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1135 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
1135 AM CDT
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT AND CURRENT
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND CLOUD TRENDS.
A SMALL VORT MAX IN THE NW UPPER FLOW DROPPED SE TO SE WI
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME MINOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TS. BUT MID
MORNING IT HAD MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND IS CURRENTLY
UPPER APPROACHING THE SW SHORE OF LOWER MI AND WILL NOT POSE ANY
THREAT OF SHRA OR TS TO THE LOCAL AREA.
UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX HAS BEEN QUICKLY DROPPING SSE FROM E CENTRAL MN TO
W CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING. NAM12 AND RUC13 SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND TURN IT MORE SE AS IT STARTS TO ENTER
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST E TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND S TO THE MID MS...OH...AND TN VALLEYS...AND THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
EXTRAPOLATION OF RECENT MOVEMENT OF THE WI SHORT WAVE IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH ABOVE MENTIONED MODELS BRINGING THE THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH S OF THE WI BORDER BETWEEN 20 AND 21Z. SIGNIFICANT MID
LEVEL COOLING OCCUR ED SINCE YESTERDAY AND WHILE MODELS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SHOW WARMING DURING THE DAY BY 29.00Z THERE IS STILL A
DEEP ALBEIT MUCH NARROW AREA OF CAPE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THAN THIS
MORNING. STILL...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED BY
NOON EXPECT TO SEE QUICK CU DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TOWARD NORTHERN IL AND NW IN.
AS OF 1125 AM CDT RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP SHOWED ONLY SCATTERED SMALL
LIGHT SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL HEATING AVAILABLE THROUGH DECREASING ML-CAPE OF 1200
TO 2000 J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL OVER THE AREA AND DECENT UVV
IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FEEL THAT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDY COVER TO BROKEN OR
NEAR OVERCAST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING TO LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALSO A SOME THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING.
TRS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
339 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A BRIEF
DRY PERIOD EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO EXPECTED IS A COOL PERIOD
AS NORTH FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND STRETCHES BACK
TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SINK SOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL
JET EXIT WILL ALSO BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE LEFT
JET EXIT REGION OVERHEAD DURING PRIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. LONG
SKINNY CAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST AND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL
AT BEST...10 KT OR SO. THEREFORE EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS TO
SPROUT FIRST ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE AROUND NOON AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE COMES THROUGH EXPECTING THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF A NORTHWEST BOONE COUNTY TO
SOUTH CENTRAL IROQUOIS COUNTY LINE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WEST OF THAT LINE AS WELL...BUT THINKING THE
STRONGER STORMS AND BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF THE LINE.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PULSEY AND UNORGANIZED AS THERE IS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CAPE BUT NOT ENOUGH SHEAR FOR LONG LIVED ORGANIZED STORMS.
THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. ENJOY THE TEMPS TODAY BECAUSE A COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WINDS TURN NORTH SATURDAY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS
WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO. CAPE WILL BE VERY LOW ON
SATURDAY WITH MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AVAILABLE. SHEAR WILL BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT THINKING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW.
THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN THICK
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES A BIT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY HELP A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM ON SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE AND A RAIN OUT IS NOT EXPECTED.
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS A BIT
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BUT CLOUDS SHOULD THIN SUNDAY NIGHT
SO WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA REACHING THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT. AS SUCH LEFT PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.
HOWEVER LOOKING LIKE WE MIGHT SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MAY HAVE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
* MVFR CIGS ARRIVING THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR
TONIGHT.
* NORTHWEST WINDS TURN NORTH LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. RADAR/SATELLITE DEPICT A WEAK
WAVE JUST REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
BRINGING A BATCH OF MID CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
THIS WAVE WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND SHOULD MAINLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ATTENTION
TURNS TO THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED TO ITS NORTHWEST WHICH HAS MERGED WITH A WAVE
THAT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WAVE
WILL REACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE TO TEMPO
TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE COULD BE ACTIVITY
NEAR THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SO WILL CARRY A
LONGER PERIOD OF VCTS. ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH SUNSET IF IT IS NOT
ALREADY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WHICH WILL TURN THE GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS TO NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD IN WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
IT WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR IFR. SATELLITE DOES SHOW AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF
WESTERN ONTARIO WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING EXTENSIVE IFR. HAVE
LOWERED CIGS TO IFR FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT AND AM THINKING CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR SATURDAY MORNING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON GUSTY STORMS OCCURRING
RIGHT OVER THE AIRFIELD.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS ARRIVING SOME TIME THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN IFR DEVELOPING...LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FROM THIS EVENING ON...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
SPEEDS/GUSTS.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND VFR.
MDB/MTF
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD UP
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER SATURDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER WEAKER LOW
CIRCULATION NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WHILE THE LOW NEAR LAKE HURON PIVOTS
EASTWARD DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT BY EVENING AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE EASING LATER SUNDAY. WHILE MIXING
WILL LIKELY BE MUTED BY THE STRONG MARINE LAYER THE GRADIENT WILL BE
RATHER STRONG SO 20-25 KT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL SET UP A
LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE FOR ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD...LIKELY TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL STARTING SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
RETURN.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
101 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 2 HRS AND CONVECTIVE
CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 45 MINUTES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-80 IS MORE QUESTIONABLE.
HOWEVER...IF A REASONABLY STRONG CONVECTIVE CELL CAN DEVELOP THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH IN THE DOWNDRAFTS.
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. ..08..
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
BASED ON DATA THROUGH 15Z...THERMALS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING WITHIN
THE HOUR WITH DIURNAL CU BY MID DAY. AS SUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WILL SLOWLY DROP
DURING THE DAY WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX
SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THE COOL POOL
ALOFT AND UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING WELL INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DECREASING COVERAGE. ..08..
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A CLOSED LOW ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED IN NORTHEAST MN. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WERE
ACROSS THE DVN CWA WHILE A LARGE MCS WAS COVERING SOUTHERN MO
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S NW
TO UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCES...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SLIDE THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR REGION WITH THE RAP DEPICTING A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING
FROM NORTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST HALF CWA CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX. THE HRRR
MESO MODEL DEPICTS THE POPCORN DESCRIPTION OF THE SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS (AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THIS MORNING BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP/FILL AS
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE THANKFULLY LOWER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS AS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING/BETTER INSTABILITY THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
A DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THEN...MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND REMAIN THERE...THEN
GRADUALLY FILLING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND
LOWS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK...IN THE 50S.
MOST DAYS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A LOW THREAT OF RAIN.
HOWEVER...AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RAIN THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HOURS EACH DAY.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF S/WS DROP INTO THE DEVELOPING TROF TO OUR EAST. THE
BETTER UPPER FORCING APPEARS TO BE JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS NEAR AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH MONDAY THEN A LOW RAIN
THREAT RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW BACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE ANY
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING...HAVE
LIMITED THE POPS TO THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT AN HOUR AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WITH SOME
SHRA ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. VFR WX IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 06Z/29 WITH VCSH OR VCTS POSSIBLE AT KCID/KMLI. KDBQ HAS
THE BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING A SHRA OR TSRA. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED SO THE CHANCES OF A TSRA HITTING A TAF SITE IS LOW. AFT
06Z/29 CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DVLPG AT KDBQ
BY SUNRISE AND KCID/KMLI AFT 12Z/29. ..08..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1011 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
BASED ON DATA THROUGH 15Z...THERMALS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING WITHIN
THE HOUR WITH DIURNAL CU BY MID DAY. AS SUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
RAP TRENDS INDICATE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WILL SLOWLY DROP
DURING THE DAY WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX
SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THE COOL POOL
ALOFT AND UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING WELL INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DECREASING COVERAGE. ..08..
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A CLOSED LOW ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED IN NORTHEAST MN. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WERE
ACROSS THE DVN CWA WHILE A LARGE MCS WAS COVERING SOUTHERN MO
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S NW
TO UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCES...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SLIDE THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR REGION WITH THE RAP DEPICTING A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING
FROM NORTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST HALF CWA CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX. THE HRRR
MESO MODEL DEPICTS THE POPCORN DESCRIPTION OF THE SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS (AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THIS MORNING BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP/FILL AS
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE THANKFULLY LOWER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS AS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING/BETTER INSTABILITY THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
A DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THEN...MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND REMAIN THERE...THEN
GRADUALLY FILLING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND
LOWS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK...IN THE 50S.
MOST DAYS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A LOW THREAT OF RAIN.
HOWEVER...AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RAIN THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HOURS EACH DAY.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF S/WS DROP INTO THE DEVELOPING TROF TO OUR EAST. THE
BETTER UPPER FORCING APPEARS TO BE JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS NEAR AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH MONDAY THEN A LOW RAIN
THREAT RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW BACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE ANY
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING...HAVE
LIMITED THE POPS TO THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
VFR CONDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA AND
NORTHWEST IL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A CLOSED LOW ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED IN NORTHEAST MN. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WERE
ACROSS THE DVN CWA WHILE A LARGE MCS WAS COVERING SOUTHERN MO
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S NW
TO UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCES...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SLIDE THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR REGION WITH THE RAP DEPICTING A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING
FROM NORTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST HALF CWA CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX. THE HRRR
MESO MODEL DEPICTS THE POPCORN DESCRIPTION OF THE SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS (AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THIS MORNING BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP/FILL AS
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE THANKFULLY LOWER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS AS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING/BETTER INSTABILITY THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
A DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THEN...MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND REMAIN THERE...THEN
GRADUALLY FILLING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND
LOWS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK...IN THE 50S.
MOST DAYS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A LOW THREAT OF RAIN.
HOWEVER...AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RAIN THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HOURS EACH DAY.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF S/WS DROP INTO THE DEVELOPING TROF TO OUR EAST. THE
BETTER UPPER FORCING APPEARS TO BE JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS NEAR AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH MONDAY THEN A LOW RAIN
THREAT RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW BACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE ANY
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING...HAVE
LIMITED THE POPS TO THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
VFR CONDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA AND
NORTHWEST IL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
303 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A CLOSED LOW ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED IN NORTHEAST MN. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WERE
ACROSS THE DVN CWA WHILE A LARGE MCS WAS COVERING SOUTHERN MO
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S NW
TO UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCES...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SLIDE THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR REGION WITH THE RAP DEPICTING A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING
FROM NORTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST HALF CWA CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX. THE HRRR
MESO MODEL DEPICTS THE POPCORN DESCRIPTION OF THE SCATTERED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS (AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THIS MORNING BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP/FILL AS
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE THANKFULLY LOWER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS AS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING/BETTER INSTABILITY THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
A DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THEN...MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND REMAIN THERE...THEN
GRADUALLY FILLING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND
LOWS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK...IN THE 50S.
MOST DAYS WILL HAVE AT LEAST A LOW THREAT OF RAIN.
HOWEVER...AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE RAIN THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HOURS EACH DAY.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF S/WS DROP INTO THE DEVELOPING TROF TO OUR EAST. THE
BETTER UPPER FORCING APPEARS TO BE JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS NEAR AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH MONDAY THEN A LOW RAIN
THREAT RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW BACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE ANY
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING...HAVE
LIMITED THE POPS TO THE DAYTIME HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT THE DBQ SITE AND A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN
ADDED. CID AND MLI MAY ALSO SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT THESE SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO BEYOND PROB30 WORDING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING
GUSTY FROM 15 TO 25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
305 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND FAR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT 07Z. A SURFACE HIGH WAS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
FROM MONTANA. SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP HAD A
MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND ROCKIES WHILE A TROUGH
WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT THE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO KANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WE
SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 800 MB THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTHEAST CORNER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN WILL SEE TEMPS COOL INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
UPPER JET CORE WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND ON THE
WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROF. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP THIS FAR WEST BUT SOUNDINGS
ARE NOT SUGGESTIVE OF MUCH IF ANY INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED. AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE PRECIP MENTION HERE. WEAK
UPPER FORCING IS AGREED UPON FOR EASTERN AREAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THIS COMES INTO AN EVEN DRYER AND MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE SO WILL KEEP THESE PERIODS DRY AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE DURING MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS AS MIXING DEPTHS
REACH SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WITH A DECENT HEIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE.
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO VEER TO A NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
FOR A STEADY COOL-DOWN...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY NOT BREACHING 80 IN THE
EAST ON SUNDAY.
MID RANGE MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE BLOCKING REGIME OVER
THE 30N-50N LATITUDES SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
BROAD UPPER TROFFING RETROGRADING INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. NEAR
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LITTLE IF
ANY FORCING SHOULD ANY PRECIP IN CHECK THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY LEE TROFFING DEVELOPS ENOUGH FOR RISING LOW LEVEL
THETA VALUES AND A MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC SETUP FOR HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO PUSH INTO EASTERN KANSAS BUT PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK
LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY TO NEAR EARLY
JULY NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
WITH CONVECTION MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WIND. THE RAP AND NAM ARE HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WITH NO CIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. IF THERE WERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND ISOLATED STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER PREDICTABILITY IS TO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING) ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU JUN 27
2013
AT 18Z...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR OTTAWA TO JUNCTION
CITY TO WASHINGTON...AND HAD ALREADY MIXED OUT A BIT NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER AS EVIDENCED BY BEATRICE WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE
SSE. THE COLD SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW HAD STABILIZED A BIT AT THE
SURFACE BUT ELEVATED PARCELS REMAINED VERY UNSTABLE. MEANWHILE...
THE WARM SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW WAS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PARTICULARLY
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE. A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING SSE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION
AND DEVELOPMENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK WHERE THE INSTABILITY FEED IS
MORE SUBSTANTIAL.
FEEL THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IS FOR THE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO FURTHER ORGANIZE...
LIKELY DEVELOPING A FORWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOL WHILE ALSO
MAINTAINING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS SEEMS TO BE A
RATHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT...ESPECIALLY
ANYWHERE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT PERHAPS
EXTENDING INTO THE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BY 100 MILES OR SO AS
WELL. THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE SHEAR PROFILE
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY
VERY STRONG WINDS AT TIMES. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS NON-ZERO...BUT
WOULD SEEM TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS WHERE THE STORMS INTERSECT THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND TO ANY ORGANIZED CELLS ON THE WEST
END OF ANY BOW ECHO. WOULD ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY BOOKEND
VORTEX THAT COULD DEVELOP IN A WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING A COMBINATION OF WINDS UP
TO 80 MPH AND HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
COME TO AN END BY LATE EVENING WITH MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EVENTUALLY SETTLING INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.
BARJENBRUCH
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU
JUN 27 2013
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MARKED BY A FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONCE TODAY`S
STORM SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AND DROPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
NORMALS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO
RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A WAVE OVER CANADA MERGES INTO THE TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES A BIT MESSY BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THIS PATTERN
CHANGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATE BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY
EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACKING OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTH FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE LOW...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD START
WARMING A BIT CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
WITH CONVECTION MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WIND. THE RAP AND NAM ARE HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WITH NO CIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS. IF THERE WERE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND ISOLATED STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER PREDICTABILITY IS TO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
937 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KEEPING THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
A MULTICELL LINE OF CONVECTION IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND CENTRAL MAINE. LIGHTNING HAS NOT BEEN NOTED IN THE
LAST HOUR. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND UNTIL 1 AM OR SO. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REMOVE SEVERE WEATHER
WORDING SOME TIME AGO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP STEADILY TOWARDS
DEW POINTS...FASTER ALONG THE COAST WHERE THERE IS LITTLE CLOUD
COVER. STRATUS AND FOG IS ALREADY REDEVELOPING ALONG THE MID COAST
AND SHOULD SPREAD TOWARDS PORTLAND AND NORTH TO AUGUSTA. LOW
STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE PATCHIER TOWARDS THE NORTH AND
WEST.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NH AND CENTRAL
MAINE NEAR AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THESE MOVE NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING ARE ALSO A CONCERN AS CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED...AND WHILE THE STORMS ARE
MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH LOWER LCLS AND BETTER 0-1 KM SHEAR...LACK
OF OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT LOW.
MUCH OF THE COAST REMAINS IN AN AREA OF CIN THANKS TO CLOUD COVER
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CELLS NOW FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF NH HAVE MUCH LESS TO WORK WITH
AND WILL BE RELYING PRIMARILY ON UPSLOPE INFLUENCES.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRACKING THIS CONVECTIVE EVENT WELL AND HAVE
BASED POPS AND QPF ON ITS OUTPUT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECT EVEN THOUGH SOME RIDING ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. SUNDAY NIGHT THE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE
SFC HEATING. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP A MOIST
AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A SFC BOUNDARY
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTH LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A 8 TO 12 HOUR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT. PWATS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RIVERS AND STREAMS AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE A VERY WET JUNE.
THIS JUNE IN PORTLAND IS NOW THE SIXTH WETTEST SINCE 1871.
THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OUT EARLY TUESDAY BUT IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING IN LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A LITTLE MORE RIDING MOVING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE.
EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE IN FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF RAIN/
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
COAST...ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE A
BIT DAYTIME SUNDAY. BACK TO IFR IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTN THEN IFR IN FOG SUNDAY NIGHT FOG.
LONG TERM...EXPECT IFR MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND IFR
MONDAY NIGHT IN FOG. MORE IFR TUESDAY AS MORE HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING WED BUT SCATTERED
IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON. IFR IN FOG WED
NIGHT. MOSTLY VFR THURSDAY EXCEPT IN ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT PENOBSCOT BAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS IS FOR SEAS AOA 5 FEET...MAINLY IN SWELLS...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND CONTRIBUTION.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
148 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED IN BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR. LESS IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE
WILL STILL EXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY DRY ON SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
I UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING TOWARD MOP. THIS AREA SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE CWA BY 10 AM. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN
800 AND 600 MB BEING THE KICK-0FF FOR THESE SHOWERS WITH IN
COMBINATION WITH THE EDGE OF THE UPPER COLD POOL MOVING IN.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE COMBINATION OF THAT THE COMBINED LAKE BREEZES
FROM LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH THE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE REGION. THE
GENERAL TREND OF THE FCST REMAINS MAINLY UNCHANGED.
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY REGARDING CONVECTION POTENTIAL. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO FIRE LATE IN THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE CWFA. THIS IS DUE TO SFC
CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED IN THAT LOCATION RESULTING FROM A SFC TROUGH
THIS IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE SFC TROUGH IS SUPPORTED
BY A LOBE OF THE NEWLY FORMED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH.
THE SFC CONVERGENCE/UPPER WAVE WILL BE ACTING ON ML CAPES OF 1000+
J/KG BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A SOMEWHAT WRLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND WILL CONVERGE WITH A DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE FROM LAKE
HURON/SAGINAW BAY TO ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AS THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ABOUT NIL WITH THE UPPER LOW
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. WE CAN EXPECT SOME PULSE TYPE STORMS
WITH SOME POSSIBLE HAIL AS THE FREEZING LEVELS COME DOWN TO AROUND
11K FT OR SO. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A DRY MICROBURST OF SOME
SUB-SEVERE WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS. THE LAKESHORE WILL HAVE THE LEAST
CHC OF STORMS DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOMETHING SURVIVING THE TRIP FROM WISCONSIN...BUT
THIS IS NOT LIKELY.
THE LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALMOST BE THROUGH THE CWFA FIRST
THING ON SAT MORNING AT 12Z. IT WILL DROP SOUTH BY AFTERNOON LEAVING
SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OVER THE CWFA. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NE WILL LIMIT ML CAPES
FROM GETTING MUCH HIGHER THAN 500 J/KG DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME NE WHICH WILL TAKE OUT THE STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN FACT...SOME OF THE BEST CHCS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON
SAT MIGHT BE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE WITH THE W AND NE WINDS
CONVERGING AT A GOOD ANGLE. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LOWER
THAN TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTED WITH SHEAR
VALUES BELOW 20 KNOTS.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOES DOWN EVEN MORE ON SUN AS EVEN
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ML CAPES ARE FCST TO ONLY
MAKE IT TO AROUND 200 J/KG AT BEST. THIS WILL KEEP A LID ON MOST
CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT MAYBE RIGHT ALONG THE SRN
BORDER CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
IT WOULD SEEM COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THIS
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.
OVERALL THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH BOTH RUN TO RUN AND MODEL
TO MODEL OVER CONUS THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A CURIOUS DIFFERENCE OVER EASTERN CANADA BY BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS IN THAT THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
SYSTEM THAT DIVES SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS HEADING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BOARDER STATES LATE IN THE WEEK THAN SHOWN ON THE GFS. HOWEVER FOR
THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD THIS IS MORE OF A CURIOSITY THAN SOMETHING
WE HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS WE HAVE SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH NEAR 70N AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH CLIMBING
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE NEAR 115W INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
MANITOBA... THEN DIVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE GULF COAST WEST OF
MISSOURI RIVER AND THEN HEADING BACK NORTH TO NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THIS DIP IN THE JET STREAM IS ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR IS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LOW THAT SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY WEDNESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH DIVES INTO THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.
WHAT THIS DOES IS TO KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IN OR NEAR CLOSED UPPER
LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE COMING WEEK. IN SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
PERIOD THE UPPER LOW IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA SO AS
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE RIDGING AND NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING IN DRY SURFACE AIR. SO THAT IS A TIME WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT WOULD BE LOWEST. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE SYSTEM REGRADES... THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH DEEP
INSTABILITY THAT WILL LEAD TO LARGELY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW SO THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS
LOW. BY JULY 4TH THE ECMWF SUGGEST UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD IN
WHILE THE GFS KEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BOTH MODELS BUILD
IN AN UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY SO BY THEN IT SHOULD DRY OUT AND WARM UP
SOME.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
TUE AND WEDNESDAY... THE DRIEST WEATHER SHOULD BE MONDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF LANSING AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDER MAY BE LACKING IN THE STABLE AIR
IN THE SHADOW OF LAKE MICHIGAN... SO HAVE NO THUNDER IN THE WESTERN
TAFS. THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD LIMIT IMPACT AT
TERMINAL FORECAST LOCATIONS AND WILL KEEP VICINITY WORDING.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LOOKING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING SATURDAY.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY... BUT THE INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE SHOULD BE REDUCED.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE
WINDS GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH DAY FROM TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE WAVES OF GENERALLY 1 TO LOCALLY 3
FEET WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES EXPECTED SOUTH DUE TO THE NRLY FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGY HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS A LITTLE LOWER COMPARED TO THU. WE WILL SEE
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF WIND IN THE CLOUD LAYER.
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DROPPED A LITTLE AS THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS
HAS MOVED AWAY AND DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING IN. SOME FLOOD
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION SITS FOR LONGER PERIOD
OF TIMES. THE THREAT WILL BECOME MUCH LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
740 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED IN BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR. LESS IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE
WILL STILL EXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY DRY ON SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
I UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING TOWARD MOP. THIS AREA SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE CWA BY 10 AM. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN
800 AND 600 MB BEING THE KICK-0FF FOR THESE SHOWERS WITH IN
COMBINATION WITH THE EDGE OF THE UPPER COLD POOL MOVING IN.
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE COMBINATION OF THAT THE COMBINED LAKE BREEZES
FROM LAKE HURON AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH THE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE REGION. THE
GENERAL TREND OF THE FCST REMAINS MAINLY UNCHANGED.
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY REGARDING CONVECTION POTENTIAL. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO FIRE LATE IN THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE CWFA. THIS IS DUE TO SFC
CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED IN THAT LOCATION RESULTING FROM A SFC TROUGH
THIS IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE SFC TROUGH IS SUPPORTED
BY A LOBE OF THE NEWLY FORMED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH.
THE SFC CONVERGENCE/UPPER WAVE WILL BE ACTING ON ML CAPES OF 1000+
J/KG BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A SOMEWHAT WRLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND WILL CONVERGE WITH A DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE FROM LAKE
HURON/SAGINAW BAY TO ONLY HELP THE CAUSE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AS THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ABOUT NIL WITH THE UPPER LOW
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. WE CAN EXPECT SOME PULSE TYPE STORMS
WITH SOME POSSIBLE HAIL AS THE FREEZING LEVELS COME DOWN TO AROUND
11K FT OR SO. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A DRY MICROBURST OF SOME
SUB-SEVERE WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS. THE LAKESHORE WILL HAVE THE LEAST
CHC OF STORMS DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOMETHING SURVIVING THE TRIP FROM WISCONSIN...BUT
THIS IS NOT LIKELY.
THE LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALMOST BE THROUGH THE CWFA FIRST
THING ON SAT MORNING AT 12Z. IT WILL DROP SOUTH BY AFTERNOON LEAVING
SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OVER THE CWFA. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NE WILL LIMIT ML CAPES
FROM GETTING MUCH HIGHER THAN 500 J/KG DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THE
FLOW WILL BECOME NE WHICH WILL TAKE OUT THE STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. IN FACT...SOME OF THE BEST CHCS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON
SAT MIGHT BE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE WITH THE W AND NE WINDS
CONVERGING AT A GOOD ANGLE. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LOWER
THAN TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTED WITH SHEAR
VALUES BELOW 20 KNOTS.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOES DOWN EVEN MORE ON SUN AS EVEN
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ML CAPES ARE FCST TO ONLY
MAKE IT TO AROUND 200 J/KG AT BEST. THIS WILL KEEP A LID ON MOST
CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT MAYBE RIGHT ALONG THE SRN
BORDER CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
IT WOULD SEEM COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THIS
MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.
OVERALL THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH BOTH RUN TO RUN AND MODEL
TO MODEL OVER CONUS THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A CURIOUS DIFFERENCE OVER EASTERN CANADA BY BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS IN THAT THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
SYSTEM THAT DIVES SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS HEADING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BOARDER STATES LATE IN THE WEEK THAN SHOWN ON THE GFS. HOWEVER FOR
THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD THIS IS MORE OF A CURIOSITY THAN SOMETHING
WE HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS WE HAVE SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH NEAR 70N AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH CLIMBING
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE NEAR 115W INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
MANITOBA... THEN DIVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE GULF COAST WEST OF
MISSOURI RIVER AND THEN HEADING BACK NORTH TO NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THIS DIP IN THE JET STREAM IS ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR IS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LOW THAT SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY WEDNESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH DIVES INTO THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.
WHAT THIS DOES IS TO KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN IN OR NEAR CLOSED UPPER
LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE COMING WEEK. IN SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
PERIOD THE UPPER LOW IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA SO AS
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE RIDGING AND NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING IN DRY SURFACE AIR. SO THAT IS A TIME WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT WOULD BE LOWEST. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE SYSTEM REGRADES... THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM BRINGS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH DEEP
INSTABILITY THAT WILL LEAD TO LARGELY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW SO THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS
LOW. BY JULY 4TH THE ECMWF SUGGEST UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD IN
WHILE THE GFS KEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BOTH MODELS BUILD
IN AN UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY SO BY THEN IT SHOULD DRY OUT AND WARM UP
SOME.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
TUE AND WEDNESDAY... THE DRIEST WEATHER SHOULD BE MONDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MIXING OUT SO VFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED
MOST OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR IN COMBINATION WITH THE 850 MB TROUGH COMING THROUGH WILL
BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT FOG TO THE TAF SITES AFTER 03Z
SATURDAY. I WOULD EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBY AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY
10Z OR SO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE TO HIT AND MISS TO PUT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS POINT SO I HAVE VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND VCSH THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF LANSING DUE TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST WIND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING THE CONVERGENCE AREA
WELL INLAND.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE
WINDS GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH DAY FROM TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE WAVES OF GENERALLY 1 TO LOCALLY 3
FEET WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES EXPECTED SOUTH DUE TO THE NRLY FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGY HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS A LITTLE LOWER COMPARED TO THU. WE WILL SEE
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF WIND IN THE CLOUD LAYER.
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DROPPED A LITTLE AS THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS
HAS MOVED AWAY AND DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING IN. SOME FLOOD
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION SITS FOR LONGER PERIOD
OF TIMES. THE THREAT WILL BECOME MUCH LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1107 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
AFTER PERCOLATING ACROSS THE GREATER TOPEKA AREA FOR THE BETTER
PART OF 4 HOURS...SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS
FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE SGF CWA. MUCH
OF THIS CONVECTION HAS SEEMINGLY BEEN ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ON TOP OF A REMNANT COLD POOL FROM THE EARLY
EVENING MCS THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF KANSAS. THIS HAS LIKELY
PREVENTED THE CONVECTION FROM BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE SGF CWA SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER...AS THE AIRMASS FURTHER SOUTH IS
FAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER (ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS) THAN ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. PRIMARY
THREAT REMAINS STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT
OF A FEW SEVERE HAIL STONES. THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS NEARLY
ZERO.
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE FOR A WHILE ONCE THEY MOVE INTO
THE SGF CWA...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY WANE WITH
TIME...GIVEN A SLOWLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 109 RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST
READINGS OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF AN OSCEOLA TO
SPRINGFIELD TO ALTON MISSOURI LINE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING AS IS UNTIL 8 PM FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY CAPPED DUE TO A WARM
AIRMASS...AND VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ON THIS
BOUNDARY. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE OUTFLOW PUSHES SOUTH...THOUGH MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE STORMS
WILL FORM INTO A LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ACCELERATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXITING THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO BE AFFECTED BY
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FARTHER TO THE WEST...GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THERE ARE MORE QUESTIONS HOW FAR EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65 THIS ACTIVITY CAN MAKE IT....THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT/COLD POOL THAT DEVELOPS FROM
THE STORMS ACROSS KANSAS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ACROSS
THE AREA AND WITH STRONG THETA-E DIFFERENCE AND A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 TO 80 MPH LIKELY ALONG THIS LINE WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS THAT STRONG BEING WEST OF INTERSTATE 49. THERE IS
A HAIL RISK...BUT WITH THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR IN
NATURE THIS POTENTIAL IS MORE LIMITED WITH GENERALLY UP TO
QUARTERS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 7
AND 10 PM ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR AND BETWEEN
8 AND MIDNIGHT WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THERE ARE MORE QUESTIONS IF
THIS LINE OF STORMS CAN MAKE IT EAST OF HIGHWAY 65...AND WILL HAVE
TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINE SETS UP ACROSS KANSAS.
FRIDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...
THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS REALLY LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO THE LOWER 90S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HOT AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S EACH AFTERNOON AS LOWS DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER OR WASH OUT IS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG A COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. IF THIS LINE CAN FILL IN
BETWEEN SALINA AND KANSAS CITY...IT WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. IF IT DOESNT FILL IN...THE
CURRENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY MISS OUR SITES TO THE
WEST. HAVE CURRENTLY PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP...ROUGHLY USING THE
LATEST HRRR AS TIMING GUIDANCE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. PRIOR TO AND AFTER THE CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. DURING CONVECTION...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...BOXELL
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
929 AM MDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING FOR SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES. CHOSE TO
SCALE BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO NOT
COVER AS MUCH OF THE CWA...FOLLOWING THE MOST RECENT HI-RES MODEL
UPDATES. MADE OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER...TEMPS...AND
WINDS. IT WILL BE VERY INSTRUCTIVE AND TELLING TO SEE IF THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BEING RESOLVED
IN THE HI-RES MODELS...THE HRRR FOR EXAMPLE...ACTUALLY RESULT IN
SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND TODAY...OR IF IT WILL JUST
BE VIRGA SHOWERS. I WILL MAKE A FEW PHONE CALLS TO TRY AND GET
SOME GROUND TRUTH IN ORDER TO ASCERTAIN THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
MODEL CONFIDENCE. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY COVERING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL GAIN SOME AMPLITUDE WITH
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MOVING NORTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. WITH ONE
EXCEPTION...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA.
THE EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TODAY
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND
GOES THROUGH THE NE CORNER OF MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING
UNSTABLE ENOUGH IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON THAT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. WILL ADD THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. AIR MASS IN CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME MOUNTAIN BASED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH AIR MASS BEING STABLE THERE.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ALBERTA WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE SOMEWHAT. AIR MASS BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE IN NORTHEAST
MONTANA IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL GIVE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST A BETTER CHANCE OF HOLDING TOGETHER
AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORRESTER
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT KEEPING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THEREFORE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MENTION IS SOME LOCATIONS WHERE MINOR DISTURBANCES MAY LEAD TO
ENHANCED VERTICAL ASCENT AS THEY PROPAGATE THROUGH IN NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE CWA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WILL
EXPECT SEASONAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH
THE FORECAST REGION SITUATED IN THIS RIDGING PATTERN ALONG WITH
RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS
ADVERTISED IN BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS TO DIVE DOWN FROM
SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BEFORE RETROGRADING TOWARD
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL ERODE ONLY VERY
GRADUALLY AND WILL OFFER GREAT RESISTANCE TO THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE. THEREFORE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT INSERTING HIGHER POPS
INTO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...DID FEEL COMFORTABLE MAKING
SOME REFINEMENTS IN THAT FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ONWARD...THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN ZONES...WITH POPS
TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OR LOWER FURTHER TO THE
WEST. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...CONFINED MENTION TO JUST THE
SOUTHERN ZONES TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING
THICKNESSES IN THE EASTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAKES A PENETRATION INTO THE RIDGING. MODELS DO BEGIN TO INDICATE
A RETURN OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK OR THE WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THAT IS IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL NOT CONCERN OVER THE DETAILS RIGHT NOW. DID
TICK TEMPERATURES UPWARD JUST A TOUCH ON FRIDAY THOUGH TO REFLECT
THIS IDEA. IT IS SURPRISING HOWEVER THAT THERE IS SUCH EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT AND THAT AT LEAST LEADS TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
ONE THING OF INTEREST TO CONSIDER THOUGH LATE NEXT WEEK OR WEEKEND IS
MODELS BRINGING IN AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST
WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HERE IN NE MT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THAN THAT
EXPECTED WITH A RIDGE PARKED OVER THE AREA. WILL BE LOOKING TO SEE
HOW MODELS HANDLE THE PROGRESSION OF THAT TROUGH IN THE VERY LATE
EXTENDED OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WAY DOWN THE
ROAD...THIS MAY PROVIDE THE CWA WITH THE NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. GIVEN THAT THIS IS 7 TO 10 DAYS OUT
THOUGH...THIS IS MERELY SPECULATION AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE CONTRASTS THAT CAN BE MADE ABOUT THE OVERALL SHAPE AND SOME OF
THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND...IT IS QUITE INTERESTING TO SEE THE
SIMILARITIES IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS EVEN THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MALIAWCO
&&
.AVIATION...
DUE TO A LARGE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE U.S....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY A VERY
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS. MALIAWCO/MARTIN
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
240 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OCCURRING
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1145 AM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOWN TO 996 MB OVER
NORTHEAST NY MOVING NORTHEAST. MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE FOR POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A
SEVERE THREAT. SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT PARTIAL CLEARING IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF PA THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUING ACROSS NY STATE. 12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS A BIT OF A WARM
LAYER AT 700 MB AND ANOTHER WEAK WARM LAYER UP AROUND 500 MB... SO
OVERALL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. HOWEVER MID-LEVEL
WINDS ARE RATHER STRONG WITH 40 KTS SHOWN FROM 700 TO 500 MB. SFC
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. KEY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
MIGHT OCCUR.
LATEST 12Z NAM IS STILL NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE INSTABILITY
INDICATING CAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER THE LATEST RAP AND
LAST NIGHTS GFS SHOW MORE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES UP NEAR OR JUST
OVER 1000 J/KG FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY SOUTH INTO PA. GIVEN
THAT CLEARING IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF PA SUSPECT THAT
CAPES PROBABLY WILL AT LEAST APPROACH 1000 J/KG ACROSS NE PA THIS
AFTERNOON... AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP.
FARTHER NORTH CLEARING IS LESS CERTAIN SO EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER. GIVEN MODERATELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OF RAIN WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING... SO AM PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE WATCH
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST PA WHERE HEATING
WILL INCREASE THE INSTABILTY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
630 AM UPDATE...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN NOW CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY AND THIS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY 8 AM. NEXT
BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT END OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BEGIN
SPREADING ACROSS WRN PTN OF FA BY MID MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO POP GRIDS.
AT 445 AM...SFC LOW PRES WAS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEW
YORK WITH LOCAL RADARS SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA REGION. THE
HEAVY PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA.
FOR TODAY, UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKES. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE FEATURE WILL GENERATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES,
THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL FALLING ON SATURATED
SOILS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE BUT ONE AGAIN LAPSE RATES, CAPE VALUES AND MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE VERY MARGINAL. IF SVR CONVECTION DOES OCCUR
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...H5 UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN
JUST WEST OF FA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AIRMASS REMAINING
FAIRLY MOIST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING. AIRMASS BECOMES EVEN MORE
MOISTURE LADEN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROF BEGINS TO TAP MORE GULF MOISTURE. A VERY WET PERIOD AHEAD
WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS.
MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S INTO THE LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 PM FRI UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES AND POPS ABOVE NORMAL. EURO
AND GFS SIMILAR WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE
CONUS. DEEP TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUT THE AREA IN A MOIST
AND WARM SW FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. STALLED COASTAL FRONT
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SE MON NGT TO TUE THEN CHC POPS EVERY
DAY AFTER THAT. WITH DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 80S. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY TROF
UNUSUAL FOR JULY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 PM EDT UPDATE...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY. TAF SITES HAVE MOSTLY
IMPROVED TO VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS KITH. WITH A LIGHT NW FLOW OFF
OF LAKE CAYUGA THEY HAVE HAD MOSTLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. THIS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 20Z. ELSEWHERE VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS IN SHOWERS. IN ANY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS VSBYS COULD FALL TO
MVFR.
TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. KAVP SHOULD REMAIN VFR. IN NY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR AROUND 6Z AND IFR AROUND 9Z.
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY 14Z.
THIS AFTN SW TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SAT THROUGH TUE...
SAT THROUGH TUE... OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH
SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY
COME BY MON/MON NGT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RECORD RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING AT ONEIDA ON ONEIDA CREEK. RIVER
FLOODING ON CHENANGO RIVER AT SHERBURNE. FORECASTED FLOODING ON
CHENANGO RIVER AT NORWICH AND GREENE AND THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT
CONKLIN, VESTAL, WAVERLY/SAYRE.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AND WAS EXTENDED TO 8 PM. MORE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COMING INTO THE CWA. AFTER FLOODING LAST
NIGHT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MORE RAIN TO FLOOD. BASIN AVERAGES
UNDER AN INCH BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1145 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OCCURRING
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 1145 AM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOWN TO 996 MB OVER
NORTHEAST NY MOVING NORTHEAST. MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE FOR POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A
SEVERE THREAT. SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT PARTIAL CLEARING IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF PA THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUING ACROSS NY STATE. 12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS A BIT OF A WARM
LAYER AT 700 MB AND ANOTHER WEAK WARM LAYER UP AROUND 500 MB... SO
OVERALL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. HOWEVER MID-LEVEL
WINDS ARE RATHER STRONG WITH 40 KTS SHOWN FROM 700 TO 500 MB. SFC
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. KEY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
MIGHT OCCUR.
LATEST 12Z NAM IS STILL NOT VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE INSTABILITY
INDICATING CAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER THE LATEST RAP AND
LAST NIGHTS GFS SHOW MORE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES UP NEAR OR JUST
OVER 1000 J/KG FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY SOUTH INTO PA. GIVEN
THAT CLEARING IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF PA SUSPECT THAT
CAPES PROBABLY WILL AT LEAST APPROACH 1000 J/KG ACROSS NE PA THIS
AFTERNOON... AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP.
FARTHER NORTH CLEARING IS LESS CERTAIN SO EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER. GIVEN MODERATELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OF RAIN WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING... SO AM PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE WATCH
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST PA WHERE HEATING
WILL INCREASE THE INSTABILTY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
630 AM UPDATE...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN NOW CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY AND THIS WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY 8 AM. NEXT
BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT END OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BEGIN
SPREADING ACROSS WRN PTN OF FA BY MID MORNING. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO POP GRIDS.
AT 445 AM...SFC LOW PRES WAS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NEW
YORK WITH LOCAL RADARS SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA REGION. THE
HEAVY PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA.
FOR TODAY, UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKES. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE FEATURE WILL GENERATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES,
THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL FALLING ON SATURATED
SOILS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE BUT ONE AGAIN LAPSE RATES, CAPE VALUES AND MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE VERY MARGINAL. IF SVR CONVECTION DOES OCCUR
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...H5 UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN
JUST WEST OF FA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AIRMASS REMAINING
FAIRLY MOIST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING. AIRMASS BECOMES EVEN MORE
MOISTURE LADEN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROF BEGINS TO TAP MORE GULF MOISTURE. A VERY WET PERIOD AHEAD
WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS.
MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S INTO THE LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM THU DISC... GLOBAL MODEL/WPC CONSENSUS CONTS TO SUGGEST QUITE AN
AMPLIFIED PATN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A SIG WRN
CONUS/CANADIAN RIDGE...AND ERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS LIKELY SPELLS A
WET PATN FOR NY/PA...WITH A SUSTAINED DEEP SRLY FLOW...AND LIKELY
S/WV IMPULSES RIDING NWD/NEWD UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SCTD-NUMEROUS/LIKELY POPS WILL
BE RETAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PD.
ALTHOUGH MUGGY CONDS ARE FORESEEN...PERSISTENT PCPN SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S-LWR 80S EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR TODAY. HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NE AWAY OF CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING AND
IFR CIGS HAVE SETTLED OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS.
IFR CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND RETURN TO
VFR. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN AND BE
SCATTERED LIKE TODAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY 4Z TONIGHT.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO KEPT OUT OF TAFS
FOR THE TIME BEING.
OUTLOOK...SAT THROUGH TUE...
SAT THROUGH TUE... OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY...WITH
SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RESTRICTIONS MAY
COME BY MON/MON NGT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK TODAY...WITH
THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY...WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE SCATTERED
AS THE WEEKEND WEARS ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THERE ARE TWO MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH TODAY...WITH THE MOST
OBVIOUS BEING THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW WHICH IS LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE.
THROUGH DAYBREAK...RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE EAST OF
OUR CWA. STEADY RAINS SHOULD BRING AROUND AN INCH TO LEWIS
COUNTY...WITH LESS TO THE WEST OF THIS. FLOOD POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER UPSTREAM RAINS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE BLACK RIVER TO RISE AT BOONVILLE...PROBABLY
APPROACHING BUT FALLING JUST SHY OF FLOOD STAGE.
THE SECOND FEATURE IS A MORE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WHICH
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK BACK INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO
GEORGIAN BAY. SHOWERS ALONG THIS AXIS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND THIS MORNING BY THE HRRR. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM
SUPPORT THE HRRR FORECAST AND GIVEN ITS FAIRLY GOOD TRACK RECORD
FOR THIS EVENT AS WELL AS RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING
THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE CONVECTIVE...WITH BUFKIT SHOWING A MOIST SOUNDING WITH
THIN AND NARROW CAPES...AND P-WAT VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES.
CONSENSUS QPFS FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING RECENT
RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM/SREF ONLY AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH THIS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CELLS...LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES
WOULD BE A CONCERN PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE...WITH URBAN AREAS...THE
BUFFALO CREEKS...AND AREAS WITH RECENT RAINS VULNERABLE TO LESSER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOLLOWING THIS...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH...WITH A KEEN FOCUS ON SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL EFFECTIVELY END THIS AXIS OF FOCUS AS THE LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. WHILE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT LIKELY...THERE MAY BE SOME EMBEDDED IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH AT ALL TODAY...WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS COVER AND AREAS OF SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY BE AROUND 70
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY...AND WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ANY CLEARING WOULD QUICKLY FAIRLY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR OVER OUR
AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A LOW LEVEL TROUGH/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ENHANCED RAINFALL AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...BUT THE TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN AT
THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS TREND OF
INDICATING HIGHER POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS COULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REASSERTS IT/S
DOMINANCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN ABUNDANT SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL SHOW A SLOW MODERATING TREND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES WEST AND SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR OVER THE
EAST COAST PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
ACROSS THE EAST...A STEADY AREA OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ALLOWING FOR A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS AT KART.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND
RESULTING IN VARIABLE CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR OR LESS IN
HEAVIER RAINS.
SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW MOVING. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF LATER TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT LOW MOISTURE...AND LESS MOISTURE
ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. ANY CLEARING ALOFT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FAIRLY
DENSE GROUND FOG.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL CAUSE NNE WINDS TO
PICK UP THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A BIT CHOPPY...BUT
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AFTER THIS WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ006>008.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>005-010>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/LEVAN
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
715 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK TODAY...WITH
THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY...WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SCATTERED AS
THE WEEKEND WEARS ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO MAIN FEATURES TO
WATCH TODAY...WITH THE MOST OBVIOUS BEING THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WHICH IS LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK STATE. THROUGH DAYBREAK...RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAIN
TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA. STEADY RAINS SHOULD BRING AROUND AN INCH
TO LEWIS COUNTY...WITH LESS TO THE WEST OF THIS. FLOOD POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER UPSTREAM
RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE BLACK RIVER TO RISE AT BOONVILLE...PROBABLY
APPROACHING BUT FALLING JUST SHY OF FLOOD STAGE.
THE SECOND FEATURE WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IS A MORE
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK
BACK INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO GEORGIAN BAY. SHOWERS ALONG THIS
AXIS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS MORNING BY THE HRRR.
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM SUPPORT THE HRRR FORECAST AND GIVEN
ITS FAIRLY GOOD TRACK RECORD FOR THIS EVENT AS WELL AS RADAR
TRENDS...WE HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE...WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING A MOIST SOUNDING WITH THIN AND NARROW CAPES...AND P-WAT
VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES. CONSENSUS QPFS FROM THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM/SREF ONLY
AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH THIS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION
OF THE CONVECTIVE CELLS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WOULD BE A CONCERN PRETTY
MUCH ANYWHERE...WITH URBAN AREAS...THE BUFFALO CREEKS...AND AREAS
WITH RECENT RAINS VULNERABLE TO LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOLLOWING
THIS...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH...WITH A KEEN FOCUS ON
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND EASTERN LAKE ERIE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL EFFECTIVELY END THIS AXIS OF FOCUS AS THE LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. WHILE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT LIKELY...THERE MAY BE SOME EMBEDDED IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH AT ALL TODAY...WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS COVER AND AREAS OF SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY BE AROUND 70
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY...AND WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ANY CLEARING WOULD QUICKLY FAIRLY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR OVER OUR
AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A LOW LEVEL TROUGH/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ENHANCED RAINFALL AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...BUT THE TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN AT
THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS TREND OF
INDICATING HIGHER POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS COULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REASSERTS IT/S
DOMINANCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN ABUNDANT SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL SHOW A SLOW MODERATING TREND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES WEST AND SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR OVER THE
EAST COAST PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT A MIX OF CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. A STEADY AREA OF RAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING...ALLOWING CONDITIONS AT
ART TO IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXPAND RESULTING IN VARIABLE CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR
OR LESS IN HEAVIER RAINS.
SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY SLOW MOVING...LIKELY TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT LOW
MOISTURE...AND LESS MOISTURE ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. ANY CLEARING ALOFT WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME FAIRLY DENSE GROUND FOG.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL CAUSE NNE WINDS TO
PICK UP THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A BIT CHOPPY...BUT
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AFTER THIS WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ006>008.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>005-010>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
501 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK TODAY...WITH
THIS LOW EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE REGION AS IT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
SCATTERED AS THE WEEKEND WEARS ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO MAIN FEATURES TO
WATCH TODAY...WITH THE MOST OBVIOUS BEING THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WHICH IS LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK STATE. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HRRR HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH LARGELY KEEPS THE CORE OF IT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR CWA. THIS SAID...EXPECT A RATHER QUICK INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
LEWIS COUNTY THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST
IN JEFFERSON/OSWEGO COUNTIES. IF THIS HOLDS...WE PROBABLY WILL NOT
SEE FLOODING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF HEAVIER RAINS WE
WILL KEEP UP THE FLOOD WATCH. UPSTREAM RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
WITHIN BANK RISES ON THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE.
THE SECOND FEATURE WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IS A MORE
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK
BACK INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO GEORGIAN BAY. SCATTERED...BUT VERY
SLOW MOVING...SHOWERS ALONG THIS AXIS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND BY THE
HRRR. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM SUPPORT THE HRRR FORECAST...AND GIVEN
A FAIRLY GOOD TRACK RECORD FOR THIS EVENT...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN ITS FORECAST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG A NW-SE AXIS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THIS
AXIS LIKELY TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TO A BUFFALO TO WELLSVILLE LINE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN EVENTUALLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE...WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING A MOIST SOUNDING WITH THIN AND NARROW CAPES...AND P-WAT
VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES. CONSENSUS QPFS FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM/SREF ONLY AVERAGE
AROUND AN INCH WITH THIS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION OF THE
CONVECTIVE CELLS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. YESTERDAY
EVENING SLOW MOVING SHOWERS RESULTED IN RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER 3
INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF TWO INCHES WOULD BE A CONCERN PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE...WITH URBAN
AREAS...THE BUFFALO CREEKS...AND AREAS WITH RECENT RAINS VULNERABLE
TO LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOLLOWING THIS...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH UP IN WESTERN NEW YORK AS WELL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL EFFECTIVELY END THIS AXIS AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON.
WHILE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY...THERE MAY BE SOME
EMBEDDED IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH AT ALL TODAY...WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS COVER AND AREAS OF SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY BE AROUND 70
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY...AND WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ANY CLEARING WOULD QUICKLY FAIRLY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR OVER OUR
AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A LOW LEVEL TROUGH/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ENHANCED RAINFALL AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...BUT THE TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN AT
THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS TREND OF
INDICATING HIGHER POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS COULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REASSERTS IT/S
DOMINANCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN ABUNDANT SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL SHOW A SLOW MODERATING TREND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES WEST AND SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR OVER THE
EAST COAST PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AVIATION FORECAST GIVEN THE
RATHER SPOTTY CONVECTION WHICH CAN TEMPORARILY LOWER CIGS/VSBY TO
IFR OR LOWER. AT 09Z...A PATCHY IFR CLOUD DECK WAS IMPACTING A FEW
SITES (ROC/JHW)...WHILE STEADIER RAIN LOWERED CIGS AT ART. STEADY
RAINS AT ART SHOULD END MID-MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
THIS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO EXPAND...RESULTING IN LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY AT BUF/IAG...AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT JHW.
THESE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO ROC LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE IN AND OUT OF SHOWERS. WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY POINT TODAY...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT EVEN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANT LOW MOISTURE
MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY...WITH ANY CLEARING ALOFT LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
LOW CIGS/VSBY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL CAUSE NNE WINDS TO
PICK UP THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A BIT CHOPPY...BUT
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AFTER THIS WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ006>008.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>005-010>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
338 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK TODAY...WITH
THIS LOW EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE REGION AS IT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
SCATTERED AS THE WEEKEND WEARS ON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO MAIN FEATURES TO
WATCH TODAY...WITH THE MOST OBVIOUS BEING THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WHICH IS LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK STATE. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HRRR HANDLING OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH LARGELY KEEPS THE CORE OF IT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR CWA. THIS SAID...EXPECT A RATHER QUICK INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
LEWIS COUNTY THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST
IN JEFFERSON/OSWEGO COUNTIES. IF THIS HOLDS...WE PROBABLY WILL NOT
SEE FLOODING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF HEAVIER RAINS WE
WILL KEEP UP THE FLOOD WATCH. UPSTREAM RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
WITHIN BANK RISES ON THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE.
THE SECOND FEATURE WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IS A MORE
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW YORK
BACK INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO GEORGIAN BAY. SCATTERED...BUT VERY
SLOW MOVING...SHOWERS ALONG THIS AXIS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND BY THE
HRRR. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM SUPPORT THE HRRR FORECAST...AND GIVEN
A FAIRLY GOOD TRACK RECORD FOR THIS EVENT...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN ITS FORECAST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG A NW-SE AXIS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH THIS
AXIS LIKELY TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TO A BUFFALO TO WELLSVILLE LINE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN EVENTUALLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE...WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING A MOIST SOUNDING WITH THIN AND NARROW CAPES...AND P-WAT
VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES. CONSENSUS QPFS FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM/SREF ONLY AVERAGE
AROUND AN INCH WITH THIS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION OF THE
CONVECTIVE CELLS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. YESTERDAY
EVENING SLOW MOVING SHOWERS RESULTED IN RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER 3
INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF TWO INCHES WOULD BE A CONCERN PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE...WITH URBAN
AREAS...THE BUFFALO CREEKS...AND AREAS WITH RECENT RAINS VULNERABLE
TO LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOLLOWING THIS...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH UP IN WESTERN NEW YORK AS WELL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL EFFECTIVELY END THIS AXIS AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON.
WHILE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY...THERE MAY BE SOME
EMBEDDED IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH AT ALL TODAY...WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS COVER AND AREAS OF SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY BE AROUND 70
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY...AND WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ANY CLEARING WOULD QUICKLY FAIRLY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR OVER OUR
AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS AGREE THAT A LOW LEVEL TROUGH/BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ENHANCED RAINFALL AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...BUT THE TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES CANNOT BE PINNED DOWN AT
THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS TREND OF
INDICATING HIGHER POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS COULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WEST
TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REASSERTS IT/S
DOMINANCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN ABUNDANT SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL SHOW A SLOW MODERATING TREND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES WEST AND SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR OVER THE
EAST COAST PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AVIATION FORECAST GIVEN THE RATHER
SPOTTY CONVECTION WHICH CAN TEMPORARILY LOWER CIGS/VSBY TO IFR OR
LOWER. OUTSIDE OF THIS...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR AT
06Z...OUTSIDE OF PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CIGS. THIS
TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...EXCEPT THAT STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS FROM JHW TO BUF/IAG...AND EVENTUALLY ROC. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWERING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ART IS
A DIFFERENT STORY WITH STEADIER RAINS LIKELY TO BACK IN FROM THE
EAST OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT TODAY...BUT WILL
MOST LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN AS SHOWERS
TAPER OFF...SIGNIFICANT LOW MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL VARY...WITH ANY CLEARING
ALOFT LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY LOW CIGS/VSBY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL CAUSE NNE WINDS TO
PICK UP THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A BIT CHOPPY...BUT
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AFTER THIS WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ006>008.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>005-010>014-
019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
THROUGH TONIGHT: LITTLE DOUBT THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL
SEE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. ACCORDING TO CURRENT
MESOANALYSES WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE ALREADY UP TO
1500-2500 J/KG AND MUCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAS FORMED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW VA INTO THE NC
MOUNTAINS... AND THIS CONVECTION IS ON TRACK TO DROP ESE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. AS EXPECTED...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPROVE TO 30-35 KTS... SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION... PARTICULARLY AS THIS INCOMING LINE FEEDS ON
A HIGHLY MOIST AND BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 (THANKS
TO PLENTY OF HEATING THUS FAR) AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TAPS
INTO THIS JUICIER AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR.
RECENT HRRR RUNS DEPICTED THIS SCENARIO FAIRLY WELL... BRINGING
SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE TRIAD TOWARD 19-20Z WHICH THEN CONGEAL
INTO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF STORM CLUSTERS HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH
04Z. STILL APPEARS THAT SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE
THREAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT GIVEN THAT WE HAVE SOME DRIER AIR NOT
FAR OFF THE SURFACE AND DECENT D-CAPE AT OR OVER 800 J/KG. THE -10C
TO -30C CAPE IS NOT ESPECIALLY LARGE BUT HAS RISEN A BIT IN RECENT
HOURS TO NEAR 500 J/KG EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN... THUS LARGE HAIL
REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT IS A SECONDARY THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
POPS DOWN AND OUT GRADUALLY WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. FOG/STRATUS HAS BEEN TOUGH TO FORECAST THE LAST FEW DAYS
BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE... WITH BETTER COVERAGE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 WITHIN A VERY LIGHT SW FLOW.
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WARM... DAMP... AND HUMID.
WE`LL REMAIN BENEATH CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAST CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH MARKEDLY LOWER SURFACE
THETA-E VALUES PUSHING INTO THE WRN FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TO SEE
SOME LINGERING PATCHY SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING... BUT WEAK TO ABSENT DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND TYPICALLY LOWER INSTABILITY AND LINGERING CINH THAT
TIME OF DAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF ANY CONVECTION DURING
THE MORNING... AND THE WRN PIEDMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MIDDAY. WITH THE INJECTION OF ENERGY DOWN ITS WEST SIDE... THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG STRONGLY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO IN
AND THE WRN OH VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... CAUSING A BACKING OF
MID LEVEL WINDS OVER NC TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AND BUILDING OF THE ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE WESTWARD
TOWARD COASTAL NC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LEAD TO DISSIPATION OF THE
ERN NC SURFACE TROUGH WHILE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL ZONE
STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PW VALUES REBOUND BACK WESTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NC WITH AN ATTENDING RESURGENCE OF HIGHER 850 MB
THETA-E. THE NAM/GFS HANDLE THEIR PRECIP FIELDS DIFFERENTLY WITH THE
NAM HOLDING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR EAST AND WEST UNTIL VERY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS CONVECTION WITH
HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1
CORRIDOR... WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE 2+ INCH
PRECIP WATER VALUES SPREAD FROM THE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH ALL OF
CENTRAL NC. THE GFS`S PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A MORE REASONABLE
SCENARIO... WITH MORE SCATTERED DISCRETE CELLS IN THE FAR WRN
PIEDMONT (WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HENCE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT LOWER) TRENDING TO NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS ROUGHLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM ROXBORO TO SILER CITY TO WADESBORO (ATTENDING
THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND PW). THE BACKED STEERING FLOW AND
EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL BRING ABOUT A CONCERN
FOR TRAINING ECHOES AND LOCALIZED URBAN AND STREET FLOODING AND
SWOLLEN CREEKS STARTING SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SOUTHERLY JET TO OUR NNW. AFTER MUCH COORDINATION AND
DISCUSSION... WILL NOT GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS YET... AS
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE IN THE ERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE MORE SANDY SOIL AND
FLATTER TERRAIN RESULTS IN SLOWER RUNOFF... BUT URBAN AREAS WILL
REMAIN VULNERABLE TO SOME FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE
AND CONSIDER THIS RISK AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS ALONG/EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE COVERING THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT TREMENDOUS BUT DOES IMPROVE
FURTHER TO 25-35 KTS... ALTHOUGH MODEL MLCAPE VALUES ONLY PEAK AT
800-1500 J/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...
SUGGESTING PERHAPS A MORE MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILE THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY. POTENTIALLY WEAKER UPDRAFTS ESPECIALLY ALOFT COULD LOWER THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS... BUT AGAIN THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO
FREEZING DEPTH NEAR 4 KM) AND PW NEAR 2 INCHES (WHICH IS NEARLY 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH
WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING. HIGHS 87-91. LOWS 68-72. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT WILL HAVE BECOME
STRONGLY AMPLIFIED AND ESTABLISHED OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS
PERIOD...BETWEEN A PAIR OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGES OVER WESTERN N.
AMERICA AND THE WESTERN N. ATLANTIC. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LEE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE DIMINISHED FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...THE PATTERN OF PERTURBED SW TO SSW DEEP LAYER FLOW
WILL DRIVE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS...AMIDST A DEEP
MOIST AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND TWO
INCHES...SUNDAY AND LIKELY THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS...TO PERHAPS 35 KTS OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL BANDS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS...AND TO A GREATER EXTENT LOCALIZED
FLOODING OWING THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW/S. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
80S...AND LOWER 70S FOR LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
CONTINUED...IF NOT INCREASINGLY...WET. THE LARGE SCALE
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE CONFIGURATION ACROSS NOAM WILL GRADUALLY
RETROGRESS...WITH THE TROUGH DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE MS
VALLEY...THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK. THE PRESENCE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...INCLUDING CENTRAL NC...IN
A PATTERN OF PERTURBED AND DEEPLY MOIST SW TO SSW FLOW ALOFT -
FAVORABLE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PARTICULARLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD WILL FAVOR AN
INCREASING RISK OF FLOODING WITH EACH DAY THAT PASSES...WITH
OTHERWISE AN OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION-LOADED WET MICROBURST FROM
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL STORM MODES DRIVEN BY GENERALLY 20-25
KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW. ASIDE FROM THE 00Z/28TH ECMWF...THE CONSENSUS
OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN...INDICATES THE PATTERN RETROGRESSION WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING TO EXPAND WESTWARD SUFFICIENTLY TO
LESSEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/COVERAGE - FROM NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD TO
SCATTERED - OVER EASTERN NC...INCLUDING THE RAH COASTAL PLAIN...BY
MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S...WITH LOWS 70 TO
75.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
THIS MORNING`S IFR STRATUS AFFECTING RDU/RWI/FAY HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD AND MIXED OUT... AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT WE REMAIN IN A WARM... HUMID... AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER CENTRAL NC... WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STORMS PARTICULARLY AT
RDU/RWI/FAY MID-LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCAL TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR INT/GSO AFTER
19Z... SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD RDU/RWI/FAY AFTER 21Z AND BECOMING
NUMEROUS. STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST IN LATE EVENING AT
RDU/RWI/FAY... TAPERING TO LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT. BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS PATTERN... AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z TONIGHT AT RDU/RWI/FAY...
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS ARE PRESENTING CONFLICTING GUIDANCE
REGARDING THIS THREAT... SO CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF A
PREDOMINANT IFR/LIFR CIG IS LOW. ANY SUCH STRATUS WOULD LIFT BY 14Z
SATURDAY MORNING... AND VFR CONDITIONS WOULD THEN HOLD THROUGH 18Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY... SHOWERS/STORMS AND ATTENDANT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT... SO EXPECT INCREASINGLY POTENTIAL FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY. WITH
MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS... THE RISK FOR
DAILY NUMEROUS SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS (PRIMARILY FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT) AND SHALLOW EARLY-MORNING IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. -GIH
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRAX WSR-88D IS BACK IN OPERATIONAL SERVICE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
THROUGH TONIGHT: LITTLE DOUBT THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL
SEE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. ACCORDING TO CURRENT
MESOANALYSES WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE ALREADY UP TO
1500-2500 J/KG AND MUCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAS FORMED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW VA INTO THE NC
MOUNTAINS... AND THIS CONVECTION IS ON TRACK TO DROP ESE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. AS EXPECTED...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPROVE TO 30-35 KTS... SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION... PARTICULARLY AS THIS INCOMING LINE FEEDS ON
A HIGHLY MOIST AND BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 (THANKS
TO PLENTY OF HEATING THUS FAR) AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TAPS
INTO THIS JUICIER AIR ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR.
RECENT HRRR RUNS DEPICTED THIS SCENARIO FAIRLY WELL... BRINGING
SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE TRIAD TOWARD 19-20Z WHICH THEN CONGEAL
INTO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF STORM CLUSTERS HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH
04Z. STILL APPEARS THAT SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE
THREAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT GIVEN THAT WE HAVE SOME DRIER AIR NOT
FAR OFF THE SURFACE AND DECENT D-CAPE AT OR OVER 800 J/KG. THE -10C
TO -30C CAPE IS NOT ESPECIALLY LARGE BUT HAS RISEN A BIT IN RECENT
HOURS TO NEAR 500 J/KG EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN... THUS LARGE HAIL
REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT IS A SECONDARY THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
POPS DOWN AND OUT GRADUALLY WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. FOG/STRATUS HAS BEEN TOUGH TO FORECAST THE LAST FEW DAYS
BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE... WITH BETTER COVERAGE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 WITHIN A VERY LIGHT SW FLOW.
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED WARM... DAMP... AND HUMID.
WE`LL REMAIN BENEATH CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAST CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH MARKEDLY LOWER SURFACE
THETA-E VALUES PUSHING INTO THE WRN FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TO SEE
SOME LINGERING PATCHY SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING... BUT WEAK TO ABSENT DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND TYPICALLY LOWER INSTABILITY AND LINGERING CINH THAT
TIME OF DAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF ANY CONVECTION DURING
THE MORNING... AND THE WRN PIEDMONT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MIDDAY. WITH THE INJECTION OF ENERGY DOWN ITS WEST SIDE... THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG STRONGLY DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO IN
AND THE WRN OH VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... CAUSING A BACKING OF
MID LEVEL WINDS OVER NC TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AND BUILDING OF THE ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE WESTWARD
TOWARD COASTAL NC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LEAD TO DISSIPATION OF THE
ERN NC SURFACE TROUGH WHILE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL ZONE
STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PW VALUES REBOUND BACK WESTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NC WITH AN ATTENDING RESURGENCE OF HIGHER 850 MB
THETA-E. THE NAM/GFS HANDLE THEIR PRECIP FIELDS DIFFERENTLY WITH THE
NAM HOLDING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR EAST AND WEST UNTIL VERY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS CONVECTION WITH
HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1
CORRIDOR... WHICH THEN PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE 2+ INCH
PRECIP WATER VALUES SPREAD FROM THE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH ALL OF
CENTRAL NC. THE GFS`S PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A MORE REASONABLE
SCENARIO... WITH MORE SCATTERED DISCRETE CELLS IN THE FAR WRN
PIEDMONT (WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HENCE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT LOWER) TRENDING TO NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS ROUGHLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM ROXBORO TO SILER CITY TO WADESBORO (ATTENDING
THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND PW). THE BACKED STEERING FLOW AND
EXPECTED ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL BRING ABOUT A CONCERN
FOR TRAINING ECHOES AND LOCALIZED URBAN AND STREET FLOODING AND
SWOLLEN CREEKS STARTING SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SOUTHERLY JET TO OUR NNW. AFTER MUCH COORDINATION AND
DISCUSSION... WILL NOT GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS YET... AS
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE IN THE ERN
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE MORE SANDY SOIL AND
FLATTER TERRAIN RESULTS IN SLOWER RUNOFF... BUT URBAN AREAS WILL
REMAIN VULNERABLE TO SOME FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE
AND CONSIDER THIS RISK AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH
LIKELY POPS ALONG/EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE COVERING THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT TREMENDOUS BUT DOES IMPROVE
FURTHER TO 25-35 KTS... ALTHOUGH MODEL MLCAPE VALUES ONLY PEAK AT
800-1500 J/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...
SUGGESTING PERHAPS A MORE MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILE THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY. POTENTIALLY WEAKER UPDRAFTS ESPECIALLY ALOFT COULD LOWER THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS... BUT AGAIN THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO
FREEZING DEPTH NEAR 4 KM) AND PW NEAR 2 INCHES (WHICH IS NEARLY 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH
WARM RAIN PROCESSES DOMINATING. HIGHS 87-91. LOWS 68-72. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
TO BE UPDATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGES DOMINATE WEST OF THE ROCKIES (EXTENDING UP
INTO CANADA) AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A DEEP TROUGH
SANDWICHED IN THE MIDDLE. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEVERTHELESS LEAVING CENTRAL NC WITHIN A
PERSISTENT DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING HIGH (BETWEEN 1.75-2 INCHES)...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD (IF NOT LONGER)...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY (MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN). AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL PUSH WESTWARD...THEREFORE EVENTUALLY EXERTING SOME MORE
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE/LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THIS IS WHEN WE MAY START SEEING A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NC.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AND THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THREAT WILL BE THE
INCREASING FLOODING RISK AS THE AREA REMAINS IN THIS EXTENDED WET
PATTERN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
THIS MORNING`S IFR STRATUS AFFECTING RDU/RWI/FAY HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD AND MIXED OUT... AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT WE REMAIN IN A WARM... HUMID... AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER CENTRAL NC... WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STORMS PARTICULARLY AT
RDU/RWI/FAY MID-LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCAL TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR INT/GSO AFTER
19Z... SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD RDU/RWI/FAY AFTER 21Z AND BECOMING
NUMEROUS. STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST IN LATE EVENING AT
RDU/RWI/FAY... TAPERING TO LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT. BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS PATTERN... AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z TONIGHT AT RDU/RWI/FAY...
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS ARE PRESENTING CONFLICTING GUIDANCE
REGARDING THIS THREAT... SO CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF A
PREDOMINANT IFR/LIFR CIG IS LOW. ANY SUCH STRATUS WOULD LIFT BY 14Z
SATURDAY MORNING... AND VFR CONDITIONS WOULD THEN HOLD THROUGH 18Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY... SHOWERS/STORMS AND ATTENDANT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT... SO EXPECT INCREASINGLY POTENTIAL FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY. WITH
MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS... THE RISK FOR
DAILY NUMEROUS SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS (PRIMARILY FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT) AND SHALLOW EARLY-MORNING IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. -GIH
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRAX WSR-88D WILL REMAIN DOWN OR IN DEGRADED MODE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. KRAX HAS BEEN IN A SEVERELY DEGRADED MODE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS... AND THE NEEDED REPAIRS WERE DEEMED TO BE CRITICAL.
THE TEAM OF TECHNICIANS ARE MAKING THESE REPAIRS AS QUICKLY AS
POSSIBLE... AND IS WORKING HARD TO RETURN THE RADAR TO NORMAL
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
135 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM FRIDAY...
LITTLE DOUBT THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS SOMETIME
IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS... ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT
DELAY IN THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
ACCORDING TO CURRENT MESOANALYSES WE ARE SLOWLY DESTABILIZING BUT
WITH A LOT OF REMAINING CINH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
MUCH OF THE MORNING STRATUS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IS SLOWLY MOVING
OUT TO THE EAST... WHILE THE WRN SECTIONS ARE SEEING HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOW-DYING MCS DIVING FROM MEMPHIS INTO
MS/AL. OVERNIGHT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
WITH THE MCV TO OUR WEST... TRACKING IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS WHEN TRAJECTORIES AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE THROUGH AL AND PERHAPS GA. WITH THIS FEATURE
LIKELY SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH... WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED
MID/HIGH-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS UP THROUGH PA... NC COULD
BE LEFT BENEATH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC
FORCING. THAT SAID... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY -- ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING -- AND WITH
THE DEARTH OF MORNING CLOUD COVER LEADING TO GOOD HEATING (TEMPS ARE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT 1-7
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME THURSDAY OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL NC)
AND MODELS PROJECTING 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER ALL BUT THE NW
CWA BY MID AFTERNOON... SEE NO REASON TO THINK THAT WE WON`T SEE
INCREASING STORMS (IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY) HEADING THROUGH THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR RUN
DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO QUITE WELL... BRINGING SCATTERED STORMS INTO
THE TRIAD TOWARD 19-20Z THEN CONGEALING INTO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
STORM CLUSTERS HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH 04Z. STILL APPEARS THAT
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
GIVEN THAT WE HAVE SOME DRY AIR NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE. THE -10C TO
-30C CAPE IS QUITE LOW THIS MORNING AND DON`T EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE
MUCH WITH ONLY MINIMAL COOLING ALOFT AND NO APPARENT OPPORTUNITY FOR
GOOD MOISTURE FLUX IN THIS MIXED PHASE REGION... THUS THE RISK OF
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE SECONDARY. IT IS INTERESTING HOW VERY DRY THE
12Z GSO SOUNDING WAS... WITH A PW OF 1.02 INCHES... MUCH LOWER THAN
IN PAST DAYS AND A BIT OF AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO SURROUNDING UPPER
AIR PLOTS. IT ALSO DEPARTS QUITE A BIT FROM THE PW NOTED ON TPW
BLENDED IMAGERY (AROUND 1.4 INCHES IN THE TRIAD). MODELS DO SHOW A
REMOISTENING OF THE COLUMN HERE THIS AFTERNOON... TOUGH TO BELIEVE
CONSIDERING THE OBSERVED UPPER-AIR DATA UPSTREAM THIS MORNING AND
THE LOW DEW POINTS IN THE TRIAD. WILL LEAVE IN GOOD CHANCE POPS HERE
FOR NOW GIVEN THE IMPROVING BULK SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY... ALTHOUGH
WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN COVERAGE IN THE TRIAD. LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGHS WITH TEMP TRENDS SUPPORTING READINGS OF 89-94. WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWN AND OUT WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FOG/STRATUS HAS BEEN TOUGH TO
FORECAST THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE... WITH
BETTER COVERAGE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITHIN A VERY LIGHT SW FLOW. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME SWLY AND WE WILL HAVE TO BE CONCERN WITH SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES FROM THE SW AS OPPOSE TO THE W-NW FROM RECENT DAYS. ANOTHER
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE TO NOTE IS HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
MEANDERING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ADVECTING
CONSIDERABLY LOWER THETA-E AIR INTO THE LOW-LEVELS...WHICH
EFFECTIVELY LESSENS CAPE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY CONFINE THE BEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO EASTERN NC WITH
LOWER PRECIP PROBABILITIES THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTING ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL PIEDMONT.
FOR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...THE MODEST MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD
OF 30 TO 35KTS AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH 2000 TO 2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WING
GUSTS AND HAIL. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE UPPER FLOW NOW PARALLEL TO THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...EASTERN AREAS WE WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE
ALERT FOR FOR TRAINING OF STORMS AND THE INHERENT HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGES DOMINATE WEST OF THE ROCKIES (EXTENDING UP
INTO CANADA) AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A DEEP TROUGH
SANDWICHED IN THE MIDDLE. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEVERTHELESS LEAVING CENTRAL NC WITHIN A
PERSISTENT DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING HIGH (BETWEEN 1.75-2 INCHES)...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD (IF NOT LONGER)...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY (MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN). AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL PUSH WESTWARD...THEREFORE EVENTUALLY EXERTING SOME MORE
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE/LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THIS IS WHEN WE MAY START SEEING A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NC.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AND THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THREAT WILL BE THE
INCREASING FLOODING RISK AS THE AREA REMAINS IN THIS EXTENDED WET
PATTERN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...
THIS MORNING`S IFR STRATUS AFFECTING RDU/RWI/FAY HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD AND MIXED OUT... AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT WE REMAIN IN A WARM... HUMID... AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER CENTRAL NC... WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STORMS PARTICULARLY AT
RDU/RWI/FAY MID-LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCAL TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR INT/GSO AFTER
19Z... SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD RDU/RWI/FAY AFTER 21Z AND BECOMING
NUMEROUS. STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST IN LATE EVENING AT
RDU/RWI/FAY... TAPERING TO LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT. BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS PATTERN... AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z TONIGHT AT RDU/RWI/FAY...
BUT ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS ARE PRESENTING CONFLICTING GUIDANCE
REGARDING THIS THREAT... SO CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF A
PREDOMINANT IFR/LIFR CIG IS LOW. ANY SUCH STRATUS WOULD LIFT BY 14Z
SATURDAY MORNING... AND VFR CONDITIONS WOULD THEN HOLD THROUGH 18Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY... SHOWERS/STORMS AND ATTENDANT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT... SO EXPECT INCREASINGLY POTENTIAL FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY. WITH
MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS... THE RISK FOR
DAILY NUMEROUS SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS (PRIMARILY FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT) AND SHALLOW EARLY-MORNING IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. -GIH
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRAX WSR-88D WILL REMAIN DOWN OR IN DEGRADED MODE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. KRAX HAS BEEN IN A SEVERELY DEGRADED MODE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS... AND THE NEEDED REPAIRS WERE DEEMED TO BE CRITICAL.
THE TEAM OF TECHNICIANS ARE MAKING THESE REPAIRS AS QUICKLY AS
POSSIBLE... AND IS WORKING HARD TO RETURN THE RADAR TO NORMAL
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1040 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM FRIDAY...
LITTLE DOUBT THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS SOMETIME
IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS... ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT
DELAY IN THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
ACCORDING TO CURRENT MESOANALYSES WE ARE SLOWLY DESTABILIZING BUT
WITH A LOT OF REMAINING CINH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
MUCH OF THE MORNING STRATUS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IS SLOWLY MOVING
OUT TO THE EAST... WHILE THE WRN SECTIONS ARE SEEING HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOW-DYING MCS DIVING FROM MEMPHIS INTO
MS/AL. OVERNIGHT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
WITH THE MCV TO OUR WEST... TRACKING IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS WHEN TRAJECTORIES AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
TAKE A MORE SRN ROUTE THROUGH AL AND PERHAPS GA. WITH THIS FEATURE
LIKELY SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH... WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED
MID/HIGH-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT TRACKS UP THROUGH PA... NC COULD
BE LEFT BENEATH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC
FORCING. THAT SAID... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY -- ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING -- AND WITH
THE DEARTH OF MORNING CLOUD COVER LEADING TO GOOD HEATING (TEMPS ARE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT 1-7
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME THURSDAY OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL NC)
AND MODELS PROJECTING 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER ALL BUT THE NW
CWA BY MID AFTERNOON... SEE NO REASON TO THINK THAT WE WON`T SEE
INCREASING STORMS (IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY) HEADING THROUGH THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR RUN
DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO QUITE WELL... BRINGING SCATTERED STORMS INTO
THE TRIAD TOWARD 19-20Z THEN CONGEALING INTO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
STORM CLUSTERS HEADING EASTWARD THROUGH 04Z. STILL APPEARS THAT
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
GIVEN THAT WE HAVE SOME DRY AIR NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE. THE -10C TO
-30C CAPE IS QUITE LOW THIS MORNING AND DON`T EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE
MUCH WITH ONLY MINIMAL COOLING ALOFT AND NO APPARENT OPPORTUNITY FOR
GOOD MOISTURE FLUX IN THIS MIXED PHASE REGION... THUS THE RISK OF
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE SECONDARY. IT IS INTERESTING HOW VERY DRY THE
12Z GSO SOUNDING WAS... WITH A PW OF 1.02 INCHES... MUCH LOWER THAN
IN PAST DAYS AND A BIT OF AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO SURROUNDING UPPER
AIR PLOTS. IT ALSO DEPARTS QUITE A BIT FROM THE PW NOTED ON TPW
BLENDED IMAGERY (AROUND 1.4 INCHES IN THE TRIAD). MODELS DO SHOW A
REMOISTENING OF THE COLUMN HERE THIS AFTERNOON... TOUGH TO BELIEVE
CONSIDERING THE OBSERVED UPPER-AIR DATA UPSTREAM THIS MORNING AND
THE LOW DEW POINTS IN THE TRIAD. WILL LEAVE IN GOOD CHANCE POPS HERE
FOR NOW GIVEN THE IMPROVING BULK SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY... ALTHOUGH
WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN COVERAGE IN THE TRIAD. LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGHS WITH TEMP TRENDS SUPPORTING READINGS OF 89-94. WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWN AND OUT WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FOG/STRATUS HAS BEEN TOUGH TO
FORECAST THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE... WITH
BETTER COVERAGE EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WITHIN A VERY LIGHT SW FLOW. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME SWLY AND WE WILL HAVE TO BE CONCERN WITH SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES FROM THE SW AS OPPOSE TO THE W-NW FROM RECENT DAYS. ANOTHER
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE TO NOTE IS HOW MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
MEANDERING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ADVECTING
CONSIDERABLY LOWER THETA-E AIR INTO THE LOW-LEVELS...WHICH
EFFECTIVELY LESSENS CAPE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY CONFINE THE BEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO EASTERN NC WITH
LOWER PRECIP PROBABILITIES THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTING ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL PIEDMONT.
FOR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...THE MODEST MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD
OF 30 TO 35KTS AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH 2000 TO 2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WING
GUSTS AND HAIL. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE UPPER FLOW NOW PARALLEL TO THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...EASTERN AREAS WE WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE
ALERT FOR FOR TRAINING OF STORMS AND THE INHERENT HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
AN UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGES DOMINATE WEST OF THE ROCKIES (EXTENDING UP
INTO CANADA) AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A DEEP TROUGH
SANDWICHED IN THE MIDDLE. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEVERTHELESS LEAVING CENTRAL NC WITHIN A
PERSISTENT DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING HIGH (BETWEEN 1.75-2 INCHES)...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD (IF NOT LONGER)...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY (MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN). AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL PUSH WESTWARD...THEREFORE EVENTUALLY EXERTING SOME MORE
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE/LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THIS IS WHEN WE MAY START SEEING A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NC.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AND THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THREAT WILL BE THE
INCREASING FLOODING RISK AS THE AREA REMAINS IN THIS EXTENDED WET
PATTERN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM FRIDAY...
PATCHY IFR OT MVFR STRATUS AND OR FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13-14Z THIS
MORNING... WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NC.
LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
COMBINED WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SCATTER TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS OR FOG EACH MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRAX WSR-88D WILL REMAIN DOWN OR IN DEGRADED MODE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. KRAX HAS BEEN IN A SEVERELY DEGRADED MODE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS... AND THE NEEDED REPAIRS WERE DEEMED TO BE CRITICAL. THE TEAM
OF TECHNICIANS WILL MAKE THESE REPAIRS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE... AND
IS WORKING TO RETURN THE RADAR TO NORMAL SERVICE BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
142 AM EDT FRI 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS... AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
HELP PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM THURSDAY...
THE LAST CLUSTER OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING TO THE ESE
OVER THE SRN PIEDMONT AND SW SANDHILLS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED CELLS
ELSEWHERE HAVE BECOME STRONG BUT THEIR HIGH-REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE HEIGHTS OF EARLIER STORMS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY STABILIZE WITH MLCAPE DOWN TO 1500
J/KG AND GROWING CINH... AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH STORMS
DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS AS
WELL AS THE SREF AND WRF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH REMAINING STORMS
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST AND WEAKENING. DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WILL
BE WANING AS THE VORTICITY AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST... LEAVING BEHIND
BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVERNIGHT WITH A LINGERING DIFFUSE TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. WILL HOLD ONTO
EXISTING FORECAST TREND OF POPS DECREASING WEST TO EAST. EXPECT FAIR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE EAST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND
925-850 MB MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN OUR
EAST. WITH THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN SOME AREAS... CURRENT TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE DEW POINT AND HENCE ARE CLOSE
TO THE NIGHTTIME LOWS. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS PLUS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT LOWS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 69-74. -GIH
FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US. A
SHARP PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY..WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ALBEIT WITHOUT A NOTABLE TRIGGER IN THE MODELS...AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ITS POSSIBLE THAT
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS THIS AFTERNOON...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE STRONGER AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO TO EXCEED
30KT...SUGGESTING MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. THE CURRENT SPC DAY
TWO OUTLOOK INCLUDES ALL OF CENTRAL NC IN A SLIGHT RISK.
REGARDING HIGH TEMPS...GUIDANCE ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY GIVES VALUES A
FEW DEGREES WARM THAN TODAY...WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOVER IN
THE LOWER 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL ALOFT AND THE
AIRMASS OVER NC REMAINS HUMID. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
AN ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC...EXPECT ATYPICALLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
NUMEROUS SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD IN THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. THE EXACT COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF
CONVECTION WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF SMALL AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN RELATION TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. FURTHERMORE...THE DEGREE
OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION...THOUGH ONE WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME CLOUD
BREAKS AND AREAS OF RELATIVELY STRONGER INSOLATION DURING PEAK
HEATING. EITHER WAY...SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COMPENSATE FOR
DECREASED INSOLATION. GIVEN DEEP-LAYER (0-6 KM) SHEAR LIKELY IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE...ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...THOUGH THE TYPE/EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
CANNOT BE PRECISELY IDENTIFIED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...TROUGHING CENTERED IN VICINITY OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY AND ATYPICALLY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CAROLINAS. NUMEROUS SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN THE PRESENCE OF
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (PWAT ~2.00") WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...
MODULATED PRIMARILY BY THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...IN ADDITION TO A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER (GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR) AND ISOLD FLASH FLOODING. IN GENERAL EXPECT HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM FRIDAY...
UPPER S/W VORT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES BY 08Z WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND PART OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY SUB-VFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG
IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY
RAIN THIS PAST EVENING.
ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER CENTRAL NC.
LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
COMBINED WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SCATTER TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS OR FOG EACH MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRAX WSR-88D WILL BE REMAIN DOWN OR IN DEGRADED MODE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. KRAX HAS BEEN IN A SEVERELY DEGRADED MODE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS... AND THE NEEDED REPAIRS WERE DEEMED TO BE CRITICAL. THE TEAM
OF TECHNICIANS WILL MAKE THESE REPAIRS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE... AND
IS WORKING TO RETURN THE RADAR TO NORMAL SERVICE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A DAILY RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS RAIN WILL BE
FALLING ON ALREADY WET SOILS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY SUSTAINING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS BEYOND. WITH SUCH A HUMID AIRMASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S) VIRTUALLY ANY STORM CELL IS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. BASED MAINLY ON CURRENTLY OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS
I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS TO 100 PERCENT FROM
EASTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY THROUGH THE WILMINGTON METRO AREA...AND JUST
SOUTH OF FLORENCE TO NEAR KINGSTREE. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY NO
LONGER SURFACE BASED BUT IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH IS ADVECTING IN EXTREMELY HUMID AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. FLOOD ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO GIVEN THE SLOW OBSERVED
CELL MOTION COUPLED WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
A SERIES OF TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROLLING ACROSS A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS NOW
WANING WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION AND THE LARGE-SCALE OVERTURNING
OF THE AIRMASS. HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY (CAPE: 3000 J/KG)
REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF FLORENCE WITH LESSER INSTABILITY ALONG
THE COAST FROM MYRTLE BEACH THROUGH WILMINGTON. (A SMALL NEGATIVE
REGION OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG THE COAST COULD PREVENT THIS
INSTABILITY FROM BEING REALIZED)
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE OFTEN OF LITTLE USE IN FORECASTING CONVECTION.
THE HRRR HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL IS HAVING TROUBLE INITIALIZING THE
STORM PROPERLY BUT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SUGGEST THE INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF FLORENCE TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER INTO THE CHARLESTON METRO
AREA WILL BE THE BREEDING GROUND FOR ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE FINAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PIEDMONT REGION COULD ALSO IGNITE NEW STORMS
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR POTENTIALLY RECEIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY.
IN TERMS OF FORECAST POPS...I HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN ROBESON INTO BLADEN COUNTIES IN NC. BY LATE
THIS EVENING I SHIFT THE BULLSEYE SOUTHWARD FROM JUST INLAND OF
GEORGETOWN ACROSS CENTRAL HORRY COUNTY TO NEAR WILMINGTON. (50-60
PERCENT) AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT
OFFSHORE BEHIND THE FINAL SHORTWAVE ALOFT...WITH DRYING CONDITIONS
TEMPORARILY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. I SAY TEMPORARILY BECAUSE THE
PATTERN FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS WET TO SAY THE
LEAST!
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM 72-77...COOLEST WEST OF I-95 AND
WARMEST ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SLOWLY RELOCATE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE FEATURES THAT WILL HELP TO
CONVERGE AND LIFT A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INCLUDE THE SEABREEZE
AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. OVERALL...A WET PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS JUST DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY ADD ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES TO WHAT HAS BEEN A
VERY WET JUNE ALREADY. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH CONVECTION...SOME
SPOTS COULD RECEIVE AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THIS RANGE.
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING FRI AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE
VERY HIGH ON FRI...REACHING 3000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
HOWEVER MODEST. THE FLOW IS LARGELY WESTERLY...EXCEPT SW IN THE
LOWEST 3-5 KFT OR SO. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS FRI MORNING...BUT THEN OVERTIME...THE COLUMN MOISTENS
FROM W TO E...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. THUS...THE SCENARIO
PAINTED BY SEVERAL OF THE MODELS LOOKS REASONABLE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG HEATING AND MOVING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES FRI AFTERNOON AND
THEN TO THE COAST FRI EVE/NIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO POP ALONG THE
SEABREEZE FRI AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPING INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A RISK FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS IN THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. MID-LEVEL TEMPS
SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HAIL IN ANY STRONG AND PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTING RISK. THE CONVECTION SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THROUGH THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.
SAT...THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND
THERE IS NO DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN TO BE FOUND. THE COLUMN IS
SATURATED OR NEARLY SO THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING UP THE COAST...BUT A GOOD
DISTANCE OFFSHORE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE TO SEE HOW IT
EVENTUALLY PLAYS OUT. THERE MAY BE SOME SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ON THE
BACK SIDE WHICH WOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS/REDUCE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THERE COULD BE CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION AT AND NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL
TAKE VERY LITTLE TO IGNITE CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE MUCH
QUICKER ON SAT THAN ON FRI AS THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONGER. WET
MICROBURSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON SAT.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD SAT THAN ON FRI GIVEN THE
EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES. WILL THUS FORECAST HIGHER TEMPS ON
FRI...LOWER TO MID 90S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BE PINNED NEAR THE
COAST AND SO EVEN THE BEACHES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRUNSWICK AND SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTIES WHERE A
MORE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WELL INLAND WITH
MID 80S AT THE BEACHES AS THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE A
LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MUGGY 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST TRIES TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST. INITIALLY LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ON THE ACTIVE SIDE OF MID TO UPPER
TROUGH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH UP THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS ENHANCING LOCALIZED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE CONVECTION SHOULD FIRST FIRE UP OVER THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND BUT THEN WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG MESO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OVERALL WILL
REMAIN IN DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND CONVECTION EACH DAY IN A WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS.
THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER WEATHER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTS FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA THE RIDGE MAY
MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PROVIDE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY WED OR THURS. WITHOUT
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WE CAN GET BACK TO LESS IN THE WAY OF
STRONGER CONVECTION AND JUST LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 70S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CLOSE TO 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SLOWLY WEAKENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE
COAST AND ACROSS AN AREA THATS BEEN WORKED OVER EARLIER BY
CONVECTION. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NEEDED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KTS WILL OCCUR IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY TERMINAL.
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP AT
KFLO/KLBT 08-12Z. COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION AREAS. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY OFFSHORE AFTER
SUNRISE...BUT REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MID-LATE MORNING
AND NEAR KFLO/KLBT...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROF...DURING THE
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION
AREAS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THESE STORMS MAY BE FOLLOWED BY MORE WAVES OF
STORMS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST. THE UPDATED FORECAST FEATURES INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THROUGH ABOUT 2-3 AM FRIDAY...WITH LESSENING CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC-SCALE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 KNOTS...OBVIOUSLY THUNDERSTORM-SCALE WINDS MUCH
TOO SMALL TO FORECAST MORE THAN 1-2 HOURS IN ADVANCE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD CLOSELY WATCH FOR
THESE STORMS AS THEY ARE PRODUCING CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH
NEARLY STATIONARY INLAND AND THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL OFFSHORE. THIS IS
PRODUCING A HEALTHY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZE AT 15-25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL RELAX A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN WITH STRONGER
WINDS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
ARE WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST...BUT THE POTENTIAL REMAINS
FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH BUT
I CAN`T RULE OUT STORMS ACROSS THE SC WATERS EITHER.
I HAVE MADE SUBSTANTIAL EDITS TO SEA HEIGHTS BASED ON DATA FROM THE
OCEAN CREST PIER WAVE GAUGE WHICH IS REPORTING 3-4 FT SEAS JUST
OUTSIDE THE SURF ZONE. LARGER SEAS OFTEN PENETRATE RIGHT UP TO THE
BEACHES ON A GOOD ONSHORE WIND HERE...AN EFFECT EVEN OUR HIGH
RESOLUTION "SWAN" WAVE MODEL DOESN`T SEEM TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
ALL AREAS UNTIL 6 PM SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND AND THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS ELEVATED THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REACH UP TO 20 TO 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...SLIGHTLY MORE W OF S ON FRI
THAN ON SAT. SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE. SE...8 TO 9
SECOND SWELL... WILL BE WEAK DURING THIS PERIOD AND WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF INCREASING WIND WAVE ENERGY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BETWEEN LOW AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF SHORE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 15 KTS NEAR SHORE WITH A SPIKE UP EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE.
WINDS WILL BE UP AROUND 20 IN OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 25 KTS IN
WATERS NORTH FRYING PAN. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
UP AROUND 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL MOST LIKELY END UP
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR 6
TO 7 FT SEAS IN STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY IN OUTER
WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
142 AM EDT THU FRI 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS... AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
HELP PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM THURSDAY...
THE LAST CLUSTER OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING TO THE ESE
OVER THE SRN PIEDMONT AND SW SANDHILLS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED CELLS
ELSEWHERE HAVE BECOME STRONG BUT THEIR HIGH-REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE HEIGHTS OF EARLIER STORMS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY STABILIZE WITH MLCAPE DOWN TO 1500
J/KG AND GROWING CINH... AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH STORMS
DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS AS
WELL AS THE SREF AND WRF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH REMAINING STORMS
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST AND WEAKENING. DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WILL
BE WANING AS THE VORTICITY AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST... LEAVING BEHIND
BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVERNIGHT WITH A LINGERING DIFFUSE TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. WILL HOLD ONTO
EXISTING FORECAST TREND OF POPS DECREASING WEST TO EAST. EXPECT FAIR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE EAST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND
925-850 MB MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN OUR
EAST. WITH THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN SOME AREAS... CURRENT TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE DEW POINT AND HENCE ARE CLOSE
TO THE NIGHTTIME LOWS. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS PLUS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT LOWS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 69-74. -GIH
FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US. A
SHARP PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY..WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ALBEIT WITHOUT A NOTABLE TRIGGER IN THE MODELS...AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ITS POSSIBLE THAT
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS THIS AFTERNOON...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE STRONGER AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO TO EXCEED
30KT...SUGGESTING MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. THE CURRENT SPC DAY
TWO OUTLOOK INCLUDES ALL OF CENTRAL NC IN A SLIGHT RISK.
REGARDING HIGH TEMPS...GUIDANCE ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY GIVES VALUES A
FEW DEGREES WARM THAN TODAY...WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOVER IN
THE LOWER 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL ALOFT AND THE
AIRMASS OVER NC REMAINS HUMID. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
AN ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC...EXPECT ATYPICALLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
NUMEROUS SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD IN THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. THE EXACT COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF
CONVECTION WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF SMALL AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN RELATION TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. FURTHERMORE...THE DEGREE
OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION...THOUGH ONE WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME CLOUD
BREAKS AND AREAS OF RELATIVELY STRONGER INSOLATION DURING PEAK
HEATING. EITHER WAY...SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COMPENSATE FOR
DECREASED INSOLATION. GIVEN DEEP-LAYER (0-6 KM) SHEAR LIKELY IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE...ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...THOUGH THE TYPE/EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
CANNOT BE PRECISELY IDENTIFIED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...TROUGHING CENTERED IN VICINITY OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY AND ATYPICALLY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CAROLINAS. NUMEROUS SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN THE PRESENCE OF
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (PWAT ~2.00") WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...
MODULATED PRIMARILY BY THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...IN ADDITION TO A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER (GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR) AND ISOLD FLASH FLOODING. IN GENERAL EXPECT HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM FRIDAY...
UPPER S/W VORT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES BY 08Z WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE SECOND PART OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY SUB-VFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG
IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY
RAIN THIS PAST EVENING.
ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER CENTRAL NC.
LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
COMBINED WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN SCATTER TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS OR FOG EACH MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRAX WSR-88D WILL BE REMAIN DOWN OR IN DEGRADED MODE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. KRAX HAS BEEN IN A SEVERELY DEGRADED MODE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS... AND THE NEEDED REPAIRS WERE DEEMED TO BE CRITICAL. THE TEAM
OF TECHNICIANS WILL MAKE THESE REPAIRS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE... AND
IS WORKING TO RETURN THE RADAR TO NORMAL SERVICE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THIS UPDATE. WE WILL ADD AN UPDATED
AVIATION AND HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL ONLY ADD CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
CHALLENGES INCLUDE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT WILL LEAN ON LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FOR NEAR TERM
FORECAST.
FOR TODAY...STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MN WILL EXPAND
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WITH A 100 KT 300 HPA JET STREAK MOVING
THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...
SOME OF THESE THERMAL CU MAY GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REMOVED POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY...BUT
WILL EXPAND CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER IS 3 TO 6 C COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...
SO EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S. WITH 20 TO 30 KTS AT 850 HPA
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
FROM 15 TO 20 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THERMAL CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SOME THICKER
CLOUD COVER TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
MOST OF SATURDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT DID KEEP 20 POPS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE DAY AS OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT SEEMINGLY RANDOM LIGHT
QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE ALOFT. SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...SO EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF TO BE FOLLOWED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED THEN
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IN DAYS 5-7. THE UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES
DURING THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND TROF OVER THE
ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE RIDGING OUT WEST WILL RETROGRADE
SOMEWHAT WEST ALLOWING FOR PIECES OF S/WV ENERGY TO SLIDE DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROF BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION WILL HELP FOCUS PRECIPITATION TUE-THU WITH WED BEING THE
MOST OPTIMAL PERIOD FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RISING EAST OF THE VALLEY...AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR
SCT/BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 TO 30
KTS...ESPECIALLY VALLEY WESTWARD...BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET.
ISO/SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WITH VERY LIMITED COVERAGE...KEPT MOST TERMINALS DRY. DID
INCLUDE VICINITY THUNDER FOR A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AT KBJI WHERE PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS KBJI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
THE RED RIVER AT FARGO IS RIGHT ABOUT CREST CURRENTLY AT OR JUST
UNDER THE MAJOR STAGE OF 30 FEET. INCREASES AT LAKE TRAVERSE WILL
ACT TO SLOW THE RATE OF FALL AT SOUTHERN VALLEY POINTS. MAINLY MINOR
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA
TRIBUTARIES. FORECAST CRESTS AND RIVER TRACES REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...RISES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED...WITH
A FEW FORECAST POINTS RISING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/FRAZIER
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI
HYDROLOGY...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
946 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
THE MAIN CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO INCREASE WINDS
A BIT AND LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ABOUT
35KT TO MIX EFFICIENTLY BY AFTERNOON...AND WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS OVER 35MPH POSSIBLE. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ON AN ADVISORY...AND MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR 1PM UPDATE.
WE WILL ALSO LOWER POPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED
(WEST) TO SCATTERED (EAST) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
EXPECTED. CAPES RISE AROUND 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A JET STREAK. TEMPS MAY ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN ALL
BUT THE FAR WEST AND WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES WITH CLOUDS EAST AND
LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
CHALLENGES INCLUDE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT WILL LEAN ON LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FOR NEAR TERM
FORECAST.
FOR TODAY...STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MN WILL EXPAND
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WITH A 100 KT 300 HPA JET STREAK MOVING
THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...
SOME OF THESE THERMAL CU MAY GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REMOVED POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY...BUT
WILL EXPAND CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER IS 3 TO 6 C COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...
SO EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S. WITH 20 TO 30 KTS AT 850 HPA
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
FROM 15 TO 20 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THERMAL CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SOME THICKER
CLOUD COVER TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
MOST OF SATURDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT DID KEEP 20 POPS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE DAY AS OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT SEEMINGLY RANDOM LIGHT
QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE ALOFT. SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...SO EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF TO BE FOLLOWED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED THEN
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IN DAYS 5-7. THE UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES
DURING THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND TROF OVER THE
ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE RIDGING OUT WEST WILL RETROGRADE
SOMEWHAT WEST ALLOWING FOR PIECES OF S/WV ENERGY TO SLIDE DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROF BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION WILL HELP FOCUS PRECIPITATION TUE-THU WITH WED BEING THE
MOST OPTIMAL PERIOD FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
WESTERN EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK EXTENDS ALONG A KHCO-KMAH-
KPKD LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 10 KTS.
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR
SKIES AT KGFK/KFAR/KDVL THIS MORNING WILL FILL-IN WITH THERMAL CU
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...BUT TIMING AND
COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES MENTION IN 12 UTC TAFS. NORTHWEST
WIND WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
RUNOFF CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER FROM AREA
TRIBUTARIES. TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE ON TARGET FROM THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE RIVER POINTS. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO IS
STILL FORECAST TO CREST NEAR MAJOR FLOOD STAGE TOWARDS LATE TODAY
OR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...RISES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ON CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED...WITH A
FEW FORECAST POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
WAHPETON REMAINS BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
FALLING. HOWEVER...EXPECTED RELEASES FROM WHITE ROCK DAM MAY SLOW
THE RECESSION OF RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/FRAZIER
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
704 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
WESTERN EDGE OF STRATOCUMULUS DECK NOW EXTENDS FROM HALLOCK TO
MAHNOMEN TO PARK RAPIDS AND IS SLOWLY EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST AROUND 10 KTS. WITH SUNRISE...EXPECT THERMAL CU TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED SKY/POP GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
CHALLENGES INCLUDE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT WILL LEAN ON LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FOR NEAR TERM
FORECAST.
FOR TODAY...STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MN WILL EXPAND
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WITH A 100 KT 300 HPA JET STREAK MOVING
THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...
SOME OF THESE THERMAL CU MAY GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REMOVED POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY...BUT
WILL EXPAND CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER IS 3 TO 6 C COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...
SO EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S. WITH 20 TO 30 KTS AT 850 HPA
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
FROM 15 TO 20 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THERMAL CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SOME THICKER
CLOUD COVER TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
MOST OF SATURDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT DID KEEP 20 POPS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE DAY AS OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT SEEMINGLY RANDOM LIGHT
QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE ALOFT. SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...SO EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF TO BE FOLLOWED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED THEN
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IN DAYS 5-7. THE UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES
DURING THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND TROF OVER THE
ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE RIDGING OUT WEST WILL RETROGRADE
SOMEWHAT WEST ALLOWING FOR PIECES OF S/WV ENERGY TO SLIDE DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROF BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION WILL HELP FOCUS PRECIPITATION TUE-THU WITH WED BEING THE
MOST OPTIMAL PERIOD FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
WESTERN EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK EXTENDS ALONG A KHCO-KMAH0-
KPKD LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 10 KTS.
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR
SKIES AT KGFK/KFAR/KDVL THIS MORNING WILL FILL-IN WITH THERMAL CU
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...BUT TIMING AND
COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES MENTION IN 12 UTC TAFS. NORTHWEST
WIND WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
RUNOFF CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER FROM AREA
TRIBUTARIES. TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE ON TARGET FROM THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE RIVER POINTS. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO IS
STILL FORECAST TO CREST NEAR MAJOR FLOOD STAGE TOWARDS LATE TODAY
OR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...RISES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ON CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED...WITH A
FEW FORECAST POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
WAHPETON REMAINS BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
FALLING. HOWEVER...EXPECTED RELEASES FROM WHITE ROCK DAM MAY SLOW
THE RECESSION OF RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/FRAZIER
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
351 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
CHALLENGES INCLUDE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT WILL LEAN ON LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FOR NEAR TERM
FORECAST.
FOR TODAY...STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MN WILL EXPAND
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WITH A 100 KT 300 HPA JET STREAK MOVING
THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...
SOME OF THESE THERMAL CU MAY GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REMOVED POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY...BUT
WILL EXPAND CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND WEST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER IS 3 TO 6 C COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...
SO EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S. WITH 20 TO 30 KTS AT 850 HPA
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
FROM 15 TO 20 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
THERMAL CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SOME THICKER
CLOUD COVER TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
MOST OF SATURDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT DID KEEP 20 POPS REGION-WIDE
THROUGH THE DAY AS OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT SEEMINGLY RANDOM LIGHT
QPF IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE ALOFT. SURFACE TO MID-
LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...SO EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF TO BE FOLLOWED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED THEN
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IN DAYS 5-7. THE UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES
DURING THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND TROF OVER THE
ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE RIDGING OUT WEST WILL RETROGRADE
SOMEWHAT WEST ALLOWING FOR PIECES OF S/WV ENERGY TO SLIDE DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROF BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION WILL HELP FOCUS PRECIPITATION TUE-THU WITH WED BEING THE
MOST OPTIMAL PERIOD FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TOMORROW GRADUALLY THINNING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NE FA MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP MVFR CIGS BECMG VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME SHRA DEVELOPING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
RUNOFF CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE RED RIVER FROM AREA
TRIBUTARIES. TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE ON TARGET FROM THE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE RIVER POINTS. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO IS
STILL FORECAST TO CREST NEAR MAJOR FLOOD STAGE TOWARDS LATE TODAY
OR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...RISES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ON CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RED...WITH A
FEW FORECAST POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
WAHPETON REMAINS BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
FALLING. HOWEVER...EXPECTED RELEASES FROM WHITE ROCK DAM MAY SLOW
THE RECESSION OF RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/FRAZIER
AVIATION...VOELKER
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
550 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WHICH COULD
LAST INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN PA EARLY THIS EVENING. FFW REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR
CLEARFIELD CO...WHERE GROUND REMAINS VERY WET FROM YESTERDAY/S
DELUGE AND MODERATE RAIN FALLING AS OF 2130Z. ELSEWHERE...SVR
WATCH 386 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z FOR SOUTHERN PA...WHERE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES STILL NR 1000 J/KG.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THREAT OF
SVR WX ENDING LAST OVR THE SE COUNTIES BASED ON LATEST RAP OUTPUT.
LIGHT WIND...PARTIAL CLEARING AND WET GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. READINGS ARND
DAWN SHOULD RANGE FROM THE M50S NW MTNS...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL DIP BY AROUND 0.50 INCH TONIGHT...AND
PERIODS OF CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL OFF NICELY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NWRN PENN WHERE LOWS EARLY SAT WILL VARY FROM
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F. LINGERING...SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS ACRS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID
60S.
DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPS A FEW...TO SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW
MTNS GIVEN CLOUDIER SKIES AND AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION.
THE UNSEASONABLY LOW HEIGHTS WILL COVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WESTERN PA ON SATURDAY...A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RTS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
FOR PM SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BASED ON LATEST 00Z/03Z
GEFS AND SREF GUIDANCE. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS INDICATE SAT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP READINGS COOLER ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN US IS FORCING ONE OF THOSE RARE FORECASTS
FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF REDUNDANCY DEPARTMENT.
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SOUND TEDIOUS AND
REPETITIVE IN THE FORECAST...BUT THERE ISN`T A PERIOD THROUGH
THE WHOLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THERE SEEMS LIKE THE REGION WILL NOT
SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOWER THAN NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS...CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE NEXT
WEEK...WITH HINTS THAT THE THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL EXPERIENCE A
RESURGENCE INTO THE EASTERN US TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...HINTING AT A
WARMER BUT STILL STILL HUMID AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID EVENING
HOURS...IF NOT LONGER. TEMPS ALOFT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...AND
STORMS HIGHER...THUS MORE OF A HAIL THREAT TODAY. ALSO A WIND
THREAT...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY.
LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT FOG TO BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND
PLAINS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR-MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
920 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR JUST UPSTREAM. AM INCREASING POP`S AGAIN IN AREAS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NASHVILLE AS SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
CROSSED INTO THAT PART OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING IN THE CONVECTION BETWEEN 03Z AND
04Z, SO WILL LEAVE THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONE FOR NOW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
554 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE RISK OF CONVECTION IN AND AROUND THE
TERMINAL BOTH THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING REMAIN TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO
PREVAILING GROUPS AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION OVER NEW MEXICO
PERSISTING INTO THE PANHANDLES. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND WILL MAKE UPDATES AS NEEDED. TOMORROWS CHANCES
LOOK HIGHER THAN TODAYS BUT ARE AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
LARGE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HEAT TO THE WESTERN
CONUS...THE PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE MEANS THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE A
SHIFT TOWARD WETTER AND COOLER WX CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE THE COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS SLID INTO SOUTHERN
TX. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTED IN COOLER
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH ITS STILL TOASTY WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S. CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM AND CO WHICH IS TYPICAL IN THIS TYPE OF WX
PATTERN. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA /PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE
VALUES/ BULK SHEAR IS WEAK SO IF ANY STORMS DO MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THEY WILL NOT BE ORGANIZED. HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES
IMPROVE SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
RETROGRADES INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGES A
BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO TRANSITION MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD FAVOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS. STORMS
MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED AS WELL OWING TO LARGER VALUES OF CAPE AND
SHEAR. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS KEPT THE AREA OUT OF A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS LIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
MECHANISM...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN UNDER STOUT NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW ALTHOUGH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE WEEK...PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INDEPENDENCE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE UPPER FLOW BACKS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT DIVERGED TOO MUCH
FROM THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE OPTED TO NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FOR THIS
PERIOD. BESIDES THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S EXPECTED AREA WIDE. THIS WILL BE A
NICE CONTRAST TO THE HOT WEEK WE`VE HAD.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND 20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY STAYING UNDER 15 MPH.
CLK
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
LARGE UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING RECORD HEAT TO THE WESTERN
CONUS...THE PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE MEANS THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE A
SHIFT TOWARD WETTER AND COOLER WX CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE THE COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS SLID INTO SOUTHERN
TX. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTED IN COOLER
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH ITS STILL TOASTY WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S. CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM AND CO WHICH IS TYPICAL IN THIS TYPE OF WX
PATTERN. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA /PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE
VALUES/ BULK SHEAR IS WEAK SO IF ANY STORMS DO MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THEY WILL NOT BE ORGANIZED. HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES
IMPROVE SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
RETROGRADES INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EDGES A
BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO TRANSITION MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD FAVOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS. STORMS
MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED AS WELL OWING TO LARGER VALUES OF CAPE AND
SHEAR. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS KEPT THE AREA OUT OF A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS LIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
MECHANISM...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN UNDER STOUT NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW ALTHOUGH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE WEEK...PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INDEPENDENCE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE UPPER FLOW BACKS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT DIVERGED TOO MUCH
FROM THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE OPTED TO NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES FOR THIS
PERIOD. BESIDES THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S EXPECTED AREA WIDE. THIS WILL BE A
NICE CONTRAST TO THE HOT WEEK WE`VE HAD.
CLK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND 20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY STAYING UNDER 15 MPH.
CLK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 67 90 62 85 60 / 10 10 30 20 20
BEAVER OK 66 92 61 85 57 / 10 10 20 10 10
BOISE CITY OK 65 91 61 83 59 / 20 10 30 20 30
BORGER TX 70 94 66 88 64 / 10 10 30 10 20
BOYS RANCH TX 68 96 66 87 63 / 10 10 30 20 30
CANYON TX 65 91 62 85 59 / 10 10 30 20 20
CLARENDON TX 69 93 64 86 61 / 10 10 30 10 20
DALHART TX 64 92 62 84 61 / 20 10 30 20 30
GUYMON OK 65 92 62 86 59 / 20 10 30 10 20
HEREFORD TX 63 93 63 84 58 / 10 10 30 20 30
LIPSCOMB TX 66 92 61 85 59 / 10 10 20 10 10
PAMPA TX 66 90 62 83 59 / 10 10 30 10 20
SHAMROCK TX 68 94 64 85 60 / 10 10 30 10 10
WELLINGTON TX 69 97 65 89 61 / 10 10 30 10 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
07/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1032 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REALLY HOLDING OVER THE 4 CORNERS/GREAT
BASIN REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE NORTHERLY TODAY
AS EXPECTED WITH UPPER LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SFC
FRONT LOOKS TO BE PUSHING INTO THE RED RIVER REGION. MORNING 850MB
ANALYSIS HAS TEMPS A TOUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY`S
FORECAST. THERMAL RIDGE STILL SHOULD SLIDE OVER THE ARE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WAS 850MB WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY. SFC WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE FROM SW/W AND PERHAPS TURN NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THINK
INLAND AREAS SHOULD REACH 98-102F RANGE. TEMPS AT GLS WILL BE
TRICKY AS CURRENT WIND FROM W WHICH COULD HELP LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
HEATING. OVERALL THINK FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS. WILL NOT DO AN UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
IFR AND MVFR STRATUS DECK HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING. STRATUS DECK SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO
KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND BE DISSIPATED BY
10AM. ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE A BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT THE FAR
NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KCLL AND KUTS.
WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE WSW UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES INLAND. AFTER THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND WINDS
SHOULD SWITCH TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AFTER MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH WITH THE RIDGE EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS. 850 MB
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM WITH KCRP NOW UP TO 22 C AND KLCH NOW UP TO
20 C. 700 MB TEMPS ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM AND ARE NOW UP TO 13 C.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. NAM 12 STILL HINTING THAT A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL DEVELOP AND FEEL THIS WILL HINDER THE TEMPERATURE RISE AT
COASTAL SITES TODAY. THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN OFFSHORE FLOW ON
SATURDAY AND FEEL COASTAL SITES COULD GET PLENTY WARM AT THAT
TIME. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF SE
TX THIS EVENING AND STALL. THE 4 KM WRF...THE RAP AND 06Z NAM 12
ARE NOW DEVELOPING SOME PCPN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL SOMEWHAT
RELUCTANTLY ADD 20 POPS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH FROM 00-06Z. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CROSS SE TX ON SATURDAY WITH 500 HEIGHTS SLOWLY
DROPPING. FEEL A WARM START AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE LOWER HEIGHTS SO WILL MAINTAIN VERY
WARM TEMPS FOR SAT AFTN. A S/WV WILL MOVE SE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TEXAS TECH WRF
SHOWS A SWATH OF PCPN DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW AND MOVING INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY. ADDED 20 POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL
ON SAT NIGHT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY MORNING AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL PORTEND
COOLER MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY AFTN.
THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATS WEST ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RETROGRADES WEST. HEIGHTS WILL
LOWER OVER SE TX WITH A SUBTLE DECREASE IN AFTERNOON TEMPS
EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL BE RATHER DRY SO AM STILL EXPECTING
MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO
DEEPEN ON WEDNESDAY SO AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CARRY RAIN
CHANCES...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPS IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER TROUGH. 43
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MODERATE AND APPROACH SCEC CRITERIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARDS. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN STALL
OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SATURDAY THEN HAVE THE WINDS BRIEFLY SWITCH TO
THE NORTH AS A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MARCHES SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD THEN WASH OUT AND PULL NORTHWARDS EARLY WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY
TO ONSHORE WINDS. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 102 75 102 72 96 / 0 20 10 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 100 76 100 75 97 / 0 10 10 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 94 80 97 78 96 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
616 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR AND MVFR STRATUS DECK HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING. STRATUS DECK SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO
KCLL...KUTS...AND KCXO TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND BE DISSIPATED BY
10AM. ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE A BOUNDARY POSSIBLY MAKING ITS WAY
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT THE FAR
NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KCLL AND KUTS.
WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE WSW UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES INLAND. AFTER THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND WINDS
SHOULD SWITCH TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AFTER MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH WITH THE RIDGE EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS. 850 MB
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM WITH KCRP NOW UP TO 22 C AND KLCH NOW UP TO
20 C. 700 MB TEMPS ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM AND ARE NOW UP TO 13 C.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. NAM 12 STILL HINTING THAT A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL DEVELOP AND FEEL THIS WILL HINDER THE TEMPERATURE RISE AT
COASTAL SITES TODAY. THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN OFFSHORE FLOW ON
SATURDAY AND FEEL COASTAL SITES COULD GET PLENTY WARM AT THAT
TIME. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF SE
TX THIS EVENING AND STALL. THE 4 KM WRF...THE RAP AND 06Z NAM 12
ARE NOW DEVELOPING SOME PCPN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL SOMEWHAT
RELUCTANTLY ADD 20 POPS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH FROM 00-06Z. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CROSS SE TX ON SATURDAY WITH 500 HEIGHTS SLOWLY
DROPPING. FEEL A WARM START AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE LOWER HEIGHTS SO WILL MAINTAIN VERY
WARM TEMPS FOR SAT AFTN. A S/WV WILL MOVE SE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TEXAS TECH WRF
SHOWS A SWATH OF PCPN DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW AND MOVING INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY. ADDED 20 POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL
ON SAT NIGHT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY MORNING AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL PORTEND
COOLER MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY AFTN.
THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATS WEST ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RETROGRADES WEST. HEIGHTS WILL
LOWER OVER SE TX WITH A SUBTLE DECREASE IN AFTERNOON TEMPS
EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL BE RATHER DRY SO AM STILL EXPECTING
MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO
DEEPEN ON WEDNESDAY SO AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CARRY RAIN
CHANCES...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPS IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER TROUGH. 43
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MODERATE AND APPROACH SCEC CRITERIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARDS. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN STALL
OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SATURDAY THEN HAVE THE WINDS BRIEFLY SWITCH TO
THE NORTH AS A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MARCHES SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD THEN WASH OUT AND PULL NORTHWARDS EARLY WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY
TO ONSHORE WINDS. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 102 75 102 72 96 / 0 20 10 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 100 76 100 75 97 / 0 10 10 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 94 80 97 78 96 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
433 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH WITH THE RIDGE EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS. 850 MB
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM WITH KCRP NOW UP TO 22 C AND KLCH NOW UP TO
20 C. 700 MB TEMPS ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM AND ARE NOW UP TO 13 C.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. NAM 12 STILL HINTING THAT A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL DEVELOP AND FEEL THIS WILL HINDER THE TEMPERATURE RISE AT
COASTAL SITES TODAY. THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN OFFSHORE FLOW ON
SATURDAY AND FEEL COASTAL SITES COULD GET PLENTY WARM AT THAT
TIME. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF SE
TX THIS EVENING AND STALL. THE 4 KM WRF...THE RAP AND 06Z NAM 12
ARE NOW DEVELOPING SOME PCPN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL SOMEWHAT
RELUCTANTLY ADD 20 POPS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH FROM 00-06Z. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CROSS SE TX ON SATURDAY WITH 500 HEIGHTS SLOWLY
DROPPING. FEEL A WARM START AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE LOWER HEIGHTS SO WILL MAINTAIN VERY
WARM TEMPS FOR SAT AFTN. A S/WV WILL MOVE SE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SAT NITE INTO SUNDAY. THE TEXAS TECH WRF
SHOWS A SWATH OF PCPN DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW AND MOVING INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY. ADDED 20 POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL
ON SAT NIGHT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY MORNING AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL PORTEND
COOLER MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY AFTN.
THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATS WEST ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RETROGRADES WEST. HEIGHTS WILL
LOWER OVER SE TX WITH A SUBTLE DECREASE IN AFTERNOON TEMPS
EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL BE RATHER DRY SO AM STILL EXPECTING
MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO
DEEPEN ON WEDNESDAY SO AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CARRY RAIN
CHANCES...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPS IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER TROUGH. 43
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MODERATE AND APPROACH SCEC CRITERIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARDS. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN STALL
OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SATURDAY THEN HAVE THE WINDS BRIEFLY SWITCH TO
THE NORTH AS A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MARCHES SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD THEN WASH OUT AND PULL NORTHWARDS EARLY WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY
TO ONSHORE WINDS. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 102 75 102 72 96 / 0 10 10 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 100 76 100 75 97 / 0 10 10 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 94 80 97 78 96 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1119 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013
.AVIATION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. HAVE SPED UP FROPA A COUPLE OF
HOURS BASED ON NEW MOS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT...THE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED TSRA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. TSRA PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO LOOK TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AND EARLIER FROPA ALSO LOWERS POP CHANCES
IN METROPLEX.
AT WACO...FROPA FORECAST FOR ABOUT 21Z/3PM. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. A DECENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS APPARENT ON THE RADAR LOOPS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THIS COMPLEX. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
LATER THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE BEFORE CROSSING THE RED RIVER
OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z TEXAS TECH WRF IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT
IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING. THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM WHICH SEEMS TO BE
UNDER-DOING WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING...ALSO INDICATES THAT THE
COMPLEX SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE RED RIVER. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH AND THE RAP INDICATE THAT THE PART OF
THE SYSTEM THAT WOULD AFFECT US ON ITS CURRENT TRACK WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING NORTH TEXAS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. AS FAR AS
TOMORROW IS CONCERNED. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A
PRETTY HOT DAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE WEAK
COLD FRONT. WACO MAY COME CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE
28TH WHICH IS 106 DEGREES SET IN 1980. THE RECORD HIGH FOR DFW
FOR TOMORROW IS AN UNATTAINABLE /WE HOPE/ 112 DEGREES WHICH ALSO
OCCURRED IN 1980.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013/
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING
TOMORROW. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN DOMINATING THE AREA WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DEEP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GREATLY BE
WEAKENED FROM THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR EAST. OVERALL...THIS
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOWER 80S IN THE DALLAS CITY
AREA. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AN OPPRESSIVELY HOT DAY ACROSS PART
OF THE REGION DUE TO A COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE THE FIRST OF TWO THAT INFLUENCES NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. SHARPLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
TOMORROWS FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING BETWEEN 101-107 AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE CHALLENGE IS THE SPEED AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TOMORROW. MOST OF THE MODELS /INCLUDING
SHORTER TERM HI-RES MODELS/ HAVE THE FRONT AROUND THE I-20
CORRIDOR ABOUT MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW. BASED ON THIS
TIMING/LOCATION...KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-20 IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...CLOSE TO 100-101 NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AND THEN
RANGING FROM 103-107 SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. IN
ADDITION...ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SOME MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THIS POINTS
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOTS OF EVAPORATION/VIRGA FROM MID LEVEL
CLOUDS/CONVECTION AND ALSO A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES MATERIALIZE.
BEHIND TOMORROWS COOL FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH A BETTER PUSH OF DRY AIR ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE NEXT
FRONT/REINFORCING FRONT. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL STILL BE
WARM RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE NORTHEAST TO UPPER 90S/NEAR
100 DEGREES IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY
START TO DROP SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL. THE LATEST SET OF MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THAT THE AIR BEHIND SUNDAY/S FRONT WILL BE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND ALSO MORE PLEASANT DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN
SUMMARY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S AND
OCCASIONALLY LOWER 70S...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. IT IS ALSO GOING TO FEEL MUCH DRIER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES THANKS TO THE LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY ACTUALLY COME NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST...NEAR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY. HAVE TAPERED BACK THE
POPS FOR SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL HOLD STRONG OVER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THERE ARE STILL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. WITH THE
DRIER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND SUNDAY/S FRONT...RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE SLIM BUT NOT COMPLETELY ZERO. WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
EAST AND THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...IT/S DIFFICULT TO PIN
POINT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS
PATTERN AND KEPT GHOST 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST. WE COULD HAVE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR OR IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL EXPAND FARTHER
WEST AND WE COULD SEE SOME DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION.
INTRODUCED 20 POPS FOR NOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 102 76 98 72 / 0 10 5 10 10
WACO, TX 76 104 75 99 71 / 0 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 74 97 71 92 66 / 5 10 5 10 10
DENTON, TX 76 99 73 97 69 / 5 10 5 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 75 99 72 96 69 / 0 10 5 10 10
DALLAS, TX 81 102 77 98 74 / 0 10 5 10 10
TERRELL, TX 76 101 74 96 70 / 0 10 5 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 76 105 75 98 71 / 0 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 74 103 75 99 71 / 0 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 77 103 73 98 69 / 0 10 5 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
539 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM EDT FRIDAY...
HAVE KEPT THE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388 CONTINUING ALTHOUGH SVR
THREAT LOOKS TO BE DIMINISHING AS LINE OF STORMS EXITS THE CWA.
STILL MESOANALYSIS INDICATES INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUCH THAT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT INTO THE NEXT HOUR OR IS POSSIBLE...PER CHAT WITH
SPC. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL IT EARLY THOUGH. THE WESTERLY FLOW
HOWEVER IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS ANY DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE PIEDMONT
AS CU HAS BEEN MORE OF FAIR WX VARIETY.
LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE BOARD WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE 18Z NAM/12Z LOCAL WRF AND 20Z HRRR HANDLING THIS
SETUP WELL AND GOING INTO THE EVENING LOOKS LIKE FOCUS FOR MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE INTO THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS SE WV
PORTIONS OF SW VA...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOWER AND
THREAT OF STORMS LOOKS SMALL. MADE CHANGES TO SKY COVER TO ALLOW
FOR MORE SUNSHINE THROUGH 7 PM...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AREA.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
VIRTUALLY ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS WERE ONLY
DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT DEBRIS CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE WESTERLY FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO FRIDAY...AND THE WIND SHEAR PROFILE IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS IMPRESSIVE ACCORDING TO ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THUS...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS LESS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND MORE PULSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP
DURING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE WELL EAST OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS. WHILE THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF
ACTIVITY...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO THE UPPER 80S SUGGEST THERE IS STILL A
POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO IN AND OUT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE
WETTEST DAY AS AN UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY CUTS OFF AND RECENTERS
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS....AND
SURFACE WINDS BACK. MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL HELP FOCUS
STORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. WATER PROBLEMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF THIS PATTERN. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND STORMS
THIS WEEKEND...ALSO WITH SLIGHT COOLING AT H85/H7...TEMPS SHOULD
BE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...ALTHOUGH STILL WARM AND HUMID THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS WITH SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH NEXT WEEKEND...PERHAPS FINALLY LEADING TO A DRIER SOLUTION.
BEFORE THEN...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE THE CLOSING OFF OF AN UPPER RIDGE JUST NW OF BERMUDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHRTWAVES/JET STREAKS TO TAKE ALMOST A SOUTH TO
NORTH PATH OVER OUR REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE AREA...VCTS WAS KEPT AT ALL TAF SITES.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET...AND WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT REALLY PESSIMISTIC
ABOUT FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT...SO ONLY A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG WAS
MENTIONED AT BLF/LWB/BCB...BUT ROA/LYH/DAN WAS LEFT AT VFR.
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY DURING SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE DAILY
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK COURTESY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE PRESENT DURING THE MORNINGS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND MAYBE A LITTLE FOG OR
STRATUS IN SHELTERED AREAS OVERNIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST. THUS...THE COVERAGE
IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY WANE WITH TIME.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures across the Inland Northwest will warm over the
weekend and reach very hot temperatures early next week. There
will be a small chance of strong thunderstorms Saturday over the
Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be
some of the hottest we have seen in several years. Many places
will experience triple digit heat early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A very minor forecast update sent out mainly to put in clear skies
across much of the region except for over the Cascades and across
the northern mountains. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
latest 12Z model guidance still supports developing thunderstorms
over the Cascades, mainly near the crest. We will start out with a
little bit of a cap across these areas, but the higher peaks are
expected to break through. Once (if) the cap is broken, there is a
convective potential of up to around 700 J/KG to be tapped into
and strong shear of around 40 to 50 kts between 0-6 km. These
parameters would support the possibility for storms going severe.
The problem with seeing any severe thunderstorms today, is that
the only kicker in town to provide additional synoptic lift is
still too far offshore to have any effect on thunderstorms today.
This means that the only lift we will generate will be from
thermodynamics of the atmosphere (aka buoyancy relationships). It
may take much of this afternoon before storms can get going as
well with only a few hours of really good buoyancy during our peak
heating. The NAM appears to be overdoing our dew point temps over
the mountains, so the GFS is being relied upon much more for
convective potential. Although we will see a considerable amount
of CAPE over the Northeast Blue Mountains into the Central
Panhandle Mountains today, there also looks to be a stronger cap
in place of around 50-100 J/KG; thus, we will continue to go with
clear skies across these areas. The SREF supports thunderstorms only
over the Cascade Mountains this afternoon as well. The HRRR model
would suggest no thunderstorms across the region today, so there is
some uncertainty when consulting some of the high resolution short
term model guidance. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A strong ridge building in from the south will promote
mostly clear skies across much of the region into this evening. Some
developing cumulus is expected over the northern WA Cascade Mtns and
across the northern mtns of NE WA and N ID near the Canadian border.
Cumulus over the northern WA Cascades may be able to break the
capping inversion this afternoon for isolated thunderstorms across
the higher peaks near the crest, but any storms that do develop are
not expected to impact the KEAT taf site. The focus for tonight will
be for the potential for some elevated thunderstorms pushing into
the region from the south. There is still some uncertainty with the
coverage thunderstorms, but all taf sites could be impacted.
Thunderstorm threat for KLWS, KPUW, KMWH and KEAT is expected to
hold off until about 09Z and then for KGEG, KSFF and KCOE a few
hours later after 12Z. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 87 63 89 65 90 68 / 0 10 20 20 10 0
Coeur d`Alene 87 60 89 62 89 65 / 0 10 20 20 10 0
Pullman 89 59 88 61 89 65 / 0 20 20 20 10 10
Lewiston 95 67 95 69 97 69 / 0 20 20 20 10 10
Colville 88 57 92 60 93 63 / 10 10 20 20 10 0
Sandpoint 83 53 89 58 88 59 / 0 0 20 20 10 0
Kellogg 85 60 88 62 87 64 / 10 10 20 30 10 0
Moses Lake 92 65 93 66 97 68 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
Wenatchee 91 68 92 68 96 71 / 0 10 20 10 0 0
Omak 89 62 91 63 96 66 / 0 10 20 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
946 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures across the Inland Northwest will warm over the
weekend and reach very hot temperatures early next week. There
will be a small chance of strong thunderstorms Saturday over the
Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be
some of the hottest we have seen in several years. Many places
will experience triple digit heat early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A very minor forecast update sent out mainly to put in clear skies
across much of the region except for over the Cascades and across
the northern mountains. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
latest 12Z model guidance still supports developing thunderstorms
over the Cascades, mainly near the crest. We will start out with a
little bit of a cap across these areas, but the higher peaks are
expected to break through. Once (if) the cap is broken, there is a
convective potential of up to around 700 J/KG to be tapped into
and strong shear of around 40 to 50 kts between 0-6 km. These
parameters would support the possibility for storms going severe.
The problem with seeing any severe thunderstorms today, is that
the only kicker in town to provide additional synoptic lift is
still too far offshore to have any effect on thunderstorms today.
This means that the only lift we will generate will be from
thermodynamics of the atmosphere (aka buoyancy relationships). It
may take much of this afternoon before storms can get going as
well with only a few hours of really good buoyancy during our peak
heating. The NAM appears to be overdoing our dew point temps over
the mountains, so the GFS is being relied upon much more for
convective potential. Although we will see a considerable amount
of CAPE over the Northeast Blue Mountains into the Central
Panhandle Mountains today, there also looks to be a stronger cap
in place of around 50-100 J/KG; thus, we will continue to go with
clear skies across these areas. The SREF supports thunderstorms
only over the Cascade Mountains this afternoon as well. The HRRR model
would suggest no thunderstorms across the region today, so there
is some uncertainty when consulting some of the high resolution
short term model guidance. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A strong ridge building in from the south will keep dry
conditions over the area today. There is a possibility for isolated
thunderstorms over the North WA Cascades btwn 20z-03z but this
should not impact KEAT. An increase in mid level
moisture/instability arrives after 06z Saturday with elevated
thunderstorms possibility developing around KMWH/KPUW/KLWS. For
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE the best chances for thunderstorms will hold off til
after 12z Sat. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 87 63 89 65 90 68 / 0 10 20 20 10 0
Coeur d`Alene 87 60 89 62 89 65 / 0 10 20 20 10 0
Pullman 89 59 88 61 89 65 / 0 20 20 20 10 10
Lewiston 95 67 95 69 97 69 / 0 20 20 20 10 10
Colville 88 57 92 60 93 63 / 10 10 20 20 10 0
Sandpoint 83 53 89 58 88 59 / 0 0 20 20 10 0
Kellogg 85 60 88 62 87 64 / 10 10 20 30 10 0
Moses Lake 92 65 93 66 97 68 / 0 20 20 10 0 0
Wenatchee 91 68 92 68 96 71 / 0 10 20 10 0 0
Omak 89 62 91 63 96 66 / 0 10 20 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
218 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
LAKE HURON/EERIE REGION WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS
LOWER MI INTO NORTHERN WI/MN. RAP ANALYZING SEVERAL EMBEDDED
POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH/VORTICITY...COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOWER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS
FIELD WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 65-70 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE NEAR 80 ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR
SOUTHWEST WI. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT FEEL
LIKE MORE OF AN EARLY AUTUMN DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOWS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER
50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THUS...ANOTHER DAY OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO OCCUR AS 0-1KM
ML MUCAPE PERKS UP INTO THE 400-1000J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON. BAY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECTING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE
CONFINED SOUTH MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94 AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO IA/IL AND RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON TEMPERATURES TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE 70-75 RANGE.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MN. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEARING
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL THEN BE NOTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
PATTERN REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHILE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGIONS. THIS
KEEPS THE AREA DRY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S. IT APPEARS THE GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY SHOW THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH FILLING/LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/EASTERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE LAMINAR/HIGH
ZONAL ACROSS CANADA. SO...LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY DRY AND
BECOMING WARMER. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY...
WARMING INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1206 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN. THESE SHOWERS HAVE DROPPED THE VISIBILITY BRIEFLY INTO
THE MVFR RANGE. AS THESE MOVE SOUTH...APPEARS THEY HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT KLSE...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
EARLY AFTERNOON TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SHOWERS GOING OVER
THE AIRFIELD WITH A REDUCTION TO THE VISIBILITY. ONCE THE INITIAL
WAVE OF SHOWERS GOES BY...CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL TURN OUT BECOMES PRETTY LOW. THE 28.15Z
RAP SHOWS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WHICH
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. SHOULD BE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THIS FLOW...BUT THEY WILL PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE PVA ADVECTION AND THUS NOT SURE HOW MANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND. THE RAP...28.14Z ARX LAPS AND 28.12Z NAM
ALL TRY TO SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY IMPACTING MINNESOTA AND IOWA AS THEY COME
SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND LET LATER FORECASTS DETAIL THIS THREAT BETTER
IF THESE SHOWERS DO DEVELOP. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS
AS THESE ARE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
MOVING SOUTH AND HAVE INCLUDED THEM FROM THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND
UPDATE IF THEY LOOK TO MOVE IN SOONER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
342 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN CO. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS LOW PRES RESIDWES
OVER UTAH AND WRN CO. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY ESE LOW LVL FLOW
EAST OF THE MTNS. OVERALL INSTABILITY BASED ON SOUNDINGS SHOWS
CAPES GENERALLY RANGING FM 500-1000 J/KG BY AFTN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE FOOTHILLS.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WAS PRETTY LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
PLAINS ON SAT DUE TO SLIGHT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT COOLING TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
BETTER CHC FOR TSTMS. WITH ESE LOW LVL FLOW AND MDT NLY FLOW SHEAR
PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLD MARGINAL SVR STORM OR TWO.
IN THE MTNS EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT SO
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 80S OVER NERN CO.
FOR TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE STRENGTHEING SELY LOW LVL FLOW OVER NERN
CO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS NERN CO. THIS
TYPE OF SET UP COULD LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL STORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS FOR
THIS SCENARIO.
.LONG TERM...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS
THE PREVAILING IDEA OF COOLER AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER
REMAINS. FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 4 OF THE FORECAST...NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WHILE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT LOWER
LEVELS. ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...BUT THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. STORM MOTIONS OUT OF THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
80S WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO DE-STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME CHANGES ARE STARTING TO BE INDICATED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF
THE FORECAST. FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS
AMPLITUDE ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMING AT MID LEVELS THAT WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK...AND
MAY ALSO DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS NEW
SCENARIO IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY OR MAY NOT COME TO PASS...SO
FOR NOW WILL HANG ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ONLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES. THE GFS MOS IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THESE
VALUES ARE NOT BEING ACCEPTED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK CYCLONE WAS WEST OF DIA AS WNDS HAVE BEEN SELY
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP WANTS TO MOVE THIS FEATURE EAST OF
DIA BY 15Z WITH LIGHT NWLY WINDS AND THEN SOUTHWARD BY 18Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NELY. THRU THE AFTN THE RAP MOVES IT OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE WITH A MORE ESE COMPONENT. AS FOR STORMS THE BEST
CHC WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF DIA HOWEVER THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS CAPPED THIS AFTN SO A STORM OR TWO COULD AFFECT THE
AIRPORT BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS . TONIGHT TSTM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SLY AFTER 03Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY. UP TO
ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN COULD OCCUR IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES...SO
COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING IF A STORM MOVES ACROSS ANY OF THE
BURN AREAS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
452 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A
DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WEAK UPPER
IMPULSES SHOULD RIDE UP ALONG IT TO PRODUCE BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSES LOOK
TO BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH TIME...THIS TROUGH
WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION A LITTLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POSSIBLE SPRINKLES
OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER AND WESTERN ULSTER COUNTIES...RADARS
QUITE...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
WE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED. THIS COULD BE
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS.
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPLIT INTO TWO
PORTIONS...WITH ENERGY LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA...AND ANOTHER PIECE
SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY HELPING TO MAINTAIN A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE H20 LOOP INDICATED NOT ONE
BUT TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES ROTATING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...ONE IN SW MISSOURI AND THE OTHER ONE ENTERING NW MINNESOTA.
IT LOOKS AS IF BOTH OF THESE WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER BUT NOT
TODAY.
FOR TODAY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
BE THE FOCI FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AGAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 5.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 30KTS. THE WET-BULB ZERO REMAINS ELEVATED
OVER 10,000 FEET AT TIMES CLOSE TO 12,000 FEET.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL UNLIKELY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THAT SAID...ANY DISCREET CELL COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WIND AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE THEME
OF THE DAY...WE WILL FORECAST "GENERIC" THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
COVERAGE TODAY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED. THE HRRR INDICATED STORMS
TODAY COULD ACTUALLY FORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...OVER THE CATSKILLS AND DRIFT NORTHWARD. A VERY WEAK
STAGNANT BOUNDARY LIES SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION...JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...SO THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUNSHINE...MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CU
FIELD SPREADS ENOUGH TO BECOME A CEILING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES HOOVERING AROUND +15C THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO WARM
READINGS TOPPING OUT 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 60S...WITH SOME SPOTS PUSHING
70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE AGAIN...AS WE LOOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY WE INITIALLY SHOULD
SEE CONVECTION DECREASE. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
OVER SW MISSOURI) WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES...3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHOWER THREAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. CLOUDS AND THE SURGE IN HUMIDITY WILL
KEEP IT MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
THE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT (-U) OFF THE 06Z GEFS LOOKS TO REACH
2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT REALLY UNTIL
TUESDAY.
THE FIRST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ON BY LATE MONDAY
FOLLOWED THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS WHICH
ONE WOULD BE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS
MODELS HITTING HARDER WITH THE FIRST ONE ON MONDAY DESPITE THE FACT
THE ANOMALIES FOR QPF (PER CSTAR RESEARCH) INDICATED TUESDAY COULD
HAVE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
EITHER WAY...THE SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A STRONG STRIP OF VORTICITY
WHICH IN TURN WILL PRODUCE PRETTY GOOD UPWARD MOTION FOCUSED ALONG
THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL STILL BE CLOSE OR RIGHT OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WE EXPECTED LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...CAPPED POPS AT 54 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A BREAK THEN MORE
ACTIVITY.
ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT REALLY THERE AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED (UNDER 1000 J/KG) AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. FOR NOW...WE WILL JUST MENTION THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE ANTICIPATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WENT ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE 75-80
RANGE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHEN (MONDAY OR TUESDAY) WE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH JUST YET. MORE ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...BUT POPS WILL FINALLY SHOW A
SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A VERY BLOCKY PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...
WITH A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE NORTHEAST WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TROUGH AND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE BERMUDA HIGH. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE BERMUDA HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER WESTWARD WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
POSSIBLY REACHING A POSITION NOT TOO FAR OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ALTHOUGH SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
WELL.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY EARLY
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...DECREASING TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SINCE KALB/KPOU/KPSF GOT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...WILL KEEP VSBY FROM ANY FOG THAT FORMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE OCNL MVFR RANGE. AT KGFL LOWERED THE VSBY/CIG
TO OCNL IFR FOR ANY FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOR THE
POSSIBLE FOG AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...HAVE FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
(06Z MONDAY). THERE WILL BE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENING...BUT TIMING THE SHOWERS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME
SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FROM 16Z AND BEYOND.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY...THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LAT SUN NITE-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THESE COULD CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE RH WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...NEARLY 100 PERCENT EVERY
NIGHT...DROPPING TO NO LOWER THAN 50-75 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE
FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...TWO STRONGER MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE AVERAGE RIVER BASIN FORECASTS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO 1-2 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS A GOOD BET THERE
WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF VARIATION OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WET
GROUND COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER OR EVEN LOCALIZED FLOODING ANY
TIME THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCES INCREASING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 4 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A
SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL ON THESE
DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
416 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOT HE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH THE 00Z MODELS NOW HINTING THAT THE
FRONT MAY BE POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN BEFORE. THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINS IN PLACE...SANDWICHING THE
CWA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CONTINUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS SET UP AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO INJECT VERY MOIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW
VALUES REACH AROUND 2 INCHES LATER TODAY...SO IF/WHEN ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT
WITH ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS AS WE SEE LOWER INSTABILITY
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...ALONG WITH
WEAKER SHEAR.
THE MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN/CONVECTION. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MESO MODELS AND THE
HANDLING OF ANY MORNING DEVELOPMENT. 06Z HRRR KEEPS THINGS DRY
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHILE 00Z SPC WRF HINTS AT SOMETHING FORMING
ALONG THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING. WILL START OFF WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS INLAND...AND CHC POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THIS AFTN.
THINKING SCT COVERAGE AT MOST FOR THE AFTN PERIOD WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND FORCING NOT EXPECTED TILL TONIGHT AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST PROVIDING LESS OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO
TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TEMPS A BIT EASIER TO FORECAST FOR...USING A BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR
HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE 80S. IF PCPN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...COULD SEE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES OF
NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MAKE THE ROUNDS BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE PERSISTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AS THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF SEEING AT LEAST SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW VALUES STAY AROUND
2 INCHES DURING THE PERIOD.
THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS TREND...WE COULD SEE THE PRECIP ENDING SOONER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF STILL SQUEEZE THROUGH
ONE MORE SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD THAT COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE INSTABILITY OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING TO
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION. SO WILL CONTINUE POPS WITH SCT
WORDING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WHILE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...SEVERE WX
CONTINUES TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH LOWER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
VALUES...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO PATCHY
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIP
EARLIER IN THE DAY. TEMPS HOVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY MON NIGHT INTO TUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS QUICKER SOLUTION.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED WITH SIMILAR THINKING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.
BROAD FULL LATITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE RETROGRADING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THE TROUGH WILL
BE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TO THE
GULF COAST. DURING THE PERIOD THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDING. AT THE SURFACE THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW WILL BE
WEAKENING ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS TOWARD
THE COAST. CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND
REGIONS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED. BY
LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE JUST SLIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO COAST.
IN ADDITION A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS
AND LOWS FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY...WARMER INLAND AND COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THEN TEMPERATURES EVEN ACROSS LONG ISLAND WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS A LITTLE WARMER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR WEST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE...WELL TO
THE EAST.
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TO BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE
STRATUS...WHICH LIKE LAST NIGHT WAS ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS OF WESTWARD EXPANSION...BUT IT HAS
BEEN SHORT LIVED. THUS...PLAN TO RUN WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE OF
FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPER THAN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO REVISE IN SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES TO VFR
IF THERE CONTINUE TO BE NO SIGNS OF STRATUS EXPANDING OR DEVELOPING
FARTHER WEST.
SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 16-18Z SUN. EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH IN THE TAFS.
LIGHT SLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE
DURING THE DAY SUN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NGT-THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHRA AND/OR TSTMS. IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS
IN MAINLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ELEVATED...BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FT TODAY. WHILE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN SUBSIDING BY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST...PRODUCING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...STILL EXPECTING
SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT INTO AT LEAST TUES. WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUES. WINDS
REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS DURING THE PERIOD.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY AS EARLY AS WED AS THE HIGH TAKES
MORE CONTROL OF THE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
415 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE LAST DAY OF JUNE. NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW RIDES NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER-TOP A
LARGE STUBBORN RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. FLOW THEN DIPS
BACK TO THE SOUTH CARVING OUT A SIGNIFICANT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WITH AN AXIS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL ACT TO
FURTHER SHARPEN THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THIS
SHARPENING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL HELP TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE DEEP S/SW FLOW AND RESULTING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. COLUMN PW VALUES ARE ALREADY HIGH WITH THE 30/00Z
KTBW SOUNDING MEASURING AROUND 2.10". THESE VALUES WILL HOLD AND
LIKELY RISE SOME (POSSIBLY SURPASSING 2.25") BY LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...
FORECAST AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED
THROUGH THE FL STRAITS/NORTHERN CUBA...AND AN ELONGATED SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. THIS
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS KEEPING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND IT STEADY FROM
THE S/SW. THE DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN
IS IDEAL FOR NOCTURNAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH THEN BEGINS TO CROSS ONSHORE LATE NIGHT.
ADD IN THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EXPECT SCT-NMRS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ROLLING IN FROM THE GULF BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE
COAST UNDER THE BEST SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE. SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG FOR
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH FROM TAMPA BAY ALONG THE SUN COAST TO GET ACTIVE
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP AND INSTABILITY RAPIDLY INCREASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TODAY...
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A STRONG PATTERN RECOGNITION
SIGNAL SUGGEST THAT THE SCT SHWR/STORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ONLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE AND STRENGTHEN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
OVER-TOP THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS...ALONG WITH MODEST SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT/QG FORCING FOR LIFT AND FAVORABLE (FOR SUMMER) UPPER JET
PLACEMENT SHOULD PROVIDE A DAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE (AND LIKELY) WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL COVERAGE. BEST RAIN CHANCES FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD AND THEN THERE IS
SOME SIGNAL THAT THIS AXIS OF BEST LIFT WILL SHIFT INLAND AND SOUTH
OF I-4 BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT GOING TO GET ALL THAT DETAILED WITH
THE FORECAST AS EVEN IF CERTAIN AREAS ARE FAVORED FROM ONE TIME OF
DAY TO ANOTHER...JUST ABOUT ANY PLACE COULD SEE A SHOWER AT JUST
ABOUT ANY TIME TODAY. IT SIMPLY WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS
GOING AND SUSTAINED. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
(TYPICAL FOR SUMMER)...BUT THE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS...AND THESE AREA
THAT FIND THEMSELVES UNDER SUCH A MESO-SCALE FEATURE COULD PICK UP
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT. THERE WILL BE SOME
SUN TO START OUT THE DAY...BUT AS THE CONVECTION GETS ESTABLISHED
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVERSPREADS...FEEL A DECENT CIRRUS CANOPY
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY STILL
LOOK TO BE THE TIME-FRAME WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST. UPPER TROUGH POSITION PROVIDES THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR
LIFT DURING THIS TIME...AND THE UPPER JET IS ALSO IN ITS MOST
FAVORABLE POSITION...PLACING MUCH OF OUR REGION IN ITS DIVERGENT
RRQ. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL THE SYNOPTIC PLAYERS IN PLACE...IT
JUST WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET CONVECTION GOING. MIGHT BE A BIT
PREMATURE AT THIS POINT...BUT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
SEEN TODAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH TO BE
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT
TO OBSERVE THE RAINFALL PATTERNS DURING THE DAY AND RE-EVALUATE THE
THREAT. EITHER WAY...APPEARS THAT THE EASTERN GULF WILL BECOME VERY
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ASHORE
BY SUNRISE NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL THEN LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR
THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INLAND.
TUESDAY...
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN A TRANSITION TIME DURING TUESDAY. UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BE SUPPRESSED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
BUILDING/RETROGRADING OF UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUPPRESSION FROM THIS RIDGE BY
THIS POINT...BUT IT WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THE SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE FOR
LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND SHIFT OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW
MORE SOUTH/SE AS OPPOSED TO SW. AT LEAST FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...THIS SUBTLE CHANGE WILL HELP CONFINE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND EVEN JUST OFFSHORE. BEST RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ALONG THE NATURE COAST WHERE THE
FLOW IS MOST STILL FROM THE SOUTH. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...
SHOWERS/STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...BUT NOT BE TO THE EXTEND SEEN ON
MONDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT CONTINUES TO RECEDE.
FOR TODAY AND MONDAY...THE STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHOPPY
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD.
THE WIND FLOW AND SURF WILL BRING AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL DECREASE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REGIME CHANGE FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE U/L FLOW WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY BLOCKED...A GRADUAL RETROGRADE IN THE U/L SYSTEMS WILL
ALLOW THE U/L LOW WHICH HAS BROUGHT A PROLONGED WET PATTERN TO THE
REGION TO PUSH WEST OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A STRONG
U/L RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PUSHING WEST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE LAST WET DAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALLOWING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THURSDAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY...WILL BE
A TRANSITION DAY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT GRADUALLY ADVECTING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL DECREASE
AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW HOLDING THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES. AS THE U/L RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO BAKE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE...COULD BE HOTTEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS SUMMER. COMBINATION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LOW END
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
ADDED HEAT AND AVAILABLE CAPE...DELAYED ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SPREAD ONSHORE
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW SCT LCL BKN CU 020-030 THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES SPREADING INLAND BY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
AND LCL IFR VSBYS IN REGIONS OF HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
GRADIENT FLOW WILL PROVIDE A STEADY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
A PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL SPEEDS POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM TARPON SPRINGS NORTHWARD....AND THEN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN ACTIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DEGREE OF
CONVECTION AND THE VERY WARM WATERS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
WATERSPOUTS. DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIFT THROUGH AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS SHIFTING OUR WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 78 86 77 / 70 60 80 50
FMY 89 76 87 76 / 80 60 70 30
GIF 91 73 87 74 / 70 30 70 30
SRQ 90 79 88 77 / 70 60 80 50
BKV 90 74 87 72 / 70 50 80 40
SPG 89 79 86 78 / 70 60 80 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
307 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE PERSISTANT UPPER LOW AND TROUGH
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL US THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER MAINLY
DIURNAL PCPN OVER IL.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR THIS EVENING DISPLAYS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IN
WITH JET FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO AR TO THE CENTRAL EAST COAST. CORE OF
500MB COLD AIR OVER IL/IN AT 00Z WHICH WAS THE ALOFT TRIGGER FOR THE
CONVTN EARLIER TODAY THROUGHOUT THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS.
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX OVER NORTHEAST IA AT 00Z
ROTATING SOUTH AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MO TODAY...PULLING
THE MAIN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD WITH IT. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OF CONVECTION TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE SOUTH 1/2 OF CWA. INSTABILITY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH
500MB TEMPS AROUND 12 AND TOTAL TOTALS IN THE 46 TO 48 RANGE WITH
CAPE ABOUT 1000. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER IN RAPPING SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED THE POPS WITH SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION THIS MORNING REACHING CWA...BEFORE WEAKENING AS PART
THE HRRR AND OTHER MESO MODELS. WITH MO VORT MAX AND UPPER LOW
FURTHER SOUTH...BEST AREA FOR LATER REDEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SOUTHERN 1/3 OF STATE.
MODELS THEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START OF UPPER LOW THEN
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WITH THAT TREND...THE
UPPER LOW BRINGS THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION BACK WITH
IT...SPREADING INCREASING POPS STARTING ON MONDAY BACK INTO THE CWA
AND THEN OVER ALL THE REGION TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS START
TO DIFFER SOME ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LOW IN THE REGION...INCREASED THE POPS A BIT OVER AREA.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS KEEP THE FILLING UPPER SYSTEM OVER WEST IL
AND JUST WEST OF REGION...CONTINUING THE TREND OF TRIGGERING DIURNAL
PCPN WITH GRADUAL SLOW WARMING OF TEMPS AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BEGINS.
BY THURS THE LOW IS OPERNING UP AND THE TROF WEAKENING AND STARTS
TO MOVE OUT TO NORTH. ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH SYSTEM BRINGING IN
MOIST MORE SUMMER TYPE OF AIRMASS FOR FRI AND INTO WEEKEND.
GOETSCH
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1132 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO
DWINDLE. AM WATCHING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AS THEY ROTATE SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND UPPER LOW. IF THEY CAN HOLD
TOGETHER...THEY COULD POTENTIALLY SPILL INTO EAST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT. NAM/LOCAL WRF BOTH TRY TO BRING WEAKENING
SHOWERS INTO THE NE KILX CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS AREA DRY. WILL CARRY VCSH AT BOTH KCMI AND KDEC
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS ARRIVE LATER. ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DRY...WITH A VFR CEILING OF AROUND 5000FT. EVEN THOUGH
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER E/SE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT TO CREATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CARRY VCSH AFTER 17Z AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS...AND VCTS AT BOTH
KDEC AND KCMI. SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY AFTER SUNSET...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE N/NE AT 10KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN WILL INCREASE AND
GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON SUNDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1132 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 852 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS THE E/SE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO CENTER OF UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TWEAK POPS
AND SKY COVER. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...THEN WILL DECREASE TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT THE E/SE ZONES WHERE SHOWERS MAY
REMAIN A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1132 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO
DWINDLE. AM WATCHING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AS THEY ROTATE SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND UPPER LOW. IF THEY CAN HOLD
TOGETHER...THEY COULD POTENTIALLY SPILL INTO EAST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT. NAM/LOCAL WRF BOTH TRY TO BRING WEAKENING
SHOWERS INTO THE NE KILX CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS AREA DRY. WILL CARRY VCSH AT BOTH KCMI AND KDEC
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN CASE A FEW SHOWERS ARRIVE LATER. ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DRY...WITH A VFR CEILING OF AROUND 5000FT. EVEN THOUGH
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT FURTHER E/SE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT TO CREATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CARRY VCSH AFTER 17Z AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS...AND VCTS AT BOTH
KDEC AND KCMI. SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY AFTER SUNSET...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE N/NE AT 10KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN WILL INCREASE AND
GUST TO AROUND 20KT ON SUNDAY.
BARNES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2013
STRONG PUSH OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE BROAD SCALE TROF ALOFT AND
KICKING OFF MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND SCT TS ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISO TS OFF AND ON...
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL ABOUT THE LOW...AND ITS EVENTUAL DEPARTURE.
FORECAST RATHER STRAIGHT FORWARD...IF ONLY A QUESTION OF WHEN IN
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THE SCT PRECIP WILL FALL AND THE
EXTENT OF THE COVERAGE.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT CLOUDY AND WINDS STAY UP
AROUND 7-10 KTS...OTHERWISE WOULD NEED TO ADDRESS THE CHANCES FOR
FG DEVELOPMENT WITH THE ENHANCED HUMIDITY AT THE SFC FROM TODAYS
SHOWERS. THAT BEING SAID...THE RH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE FOR MORE SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TOMORROW FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS... PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST. CHANCES
FOR RAPID VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT REMAIN AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR
FUNNELS AGAIN TOMORROW MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN...BUT DIURNAL HEATING
ASSIST WILL BE IMPEDED BY SIGNIF CLOUD COVER REMAINING FROM TODAY
AND THIS EVENINGS PRECIP.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ONGOING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OFF AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINING
FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
DEFINITIVE ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE AVAILABILITY OF
THE MOISTURE AS THE LOW PULLS DOWN AIR FROM THE NORTH INTO THE
FA...PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO THE WEST. FOR AT
LEAST SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL LIKELY
GET RECYCLED FROM THE PREV DAY SHOWERS....AT LEAST UNTIL ENOUGH
DRY AIR CAN MOVE IN AND DILUTE THE RH. TUESDAY THE LOW RETROGRADES
JUST A BIT AND CENTERS MORE OVER CENTRAL IL AND THINKING IF THIS
TREND IN MODELS CONTINUES...WILL BE BOOSTING TUES POPS IN THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. CONCERN LESS FOR MAJOR SYSTEMS AND MORE FOR
DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
UPPER LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE UPPER LOW
DOES BRING DOWN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS INTO THE MID
LEVELS...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S FROM SAT THROUGH
TUESDAY AT LEAST. UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE OUT ON WED
AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP NOT DISAPPEARING FROM FORECAST
FOR THE HOLIDAY ENTIRELY...BUT DIMINISHING GOING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
347 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TTODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE TEMP FORECAST.
1230 PM SAT UPDATE...
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE OR MODELS SINCE
YESTERDAY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES AND POPS ABOVE
NORMAL. EURO AND GFS SIMILAR WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE STAGNANT
PATTERN FOR THE CONUS. DEEP TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUT THE
AREA IN A MOIST AND WARM SW FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHC POPS
EVERY DAY. WITH DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 80S. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY TROF UNUSUAL FOR
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 AM EDT UPDATE...
ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG TO SET
UP FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TONIGHT IS A
SIMILAR SETUP COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
FLUCTUATIONS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED FOR KITH...KELM... AND KRME
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FROM 17 TO 21Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT PREVAIL IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
SUN THROUGH THU...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA AND EARLY
MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN ON THE 27TH-28TH
CONTINUE. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE EARLIER AND EXPECTED TO
FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA
NWS ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER IN NORWICH REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
BUT WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME THIS MORNING. THE
SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN WILL EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TONIGHT TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SO HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WARNING THERE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
334 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTWARD
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TTODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 PM SAT UPDATE...
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE OR MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY.
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES AND POPS ABOVE NORMAL. EURO
AND GFS SIMILAR WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE STAGNANT PATTERN FOR THE
CONUS. DEEP TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUT THE AREA IN A MOIST
AND WARM SW FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHC POPS EVERY DAY. WITH
DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY MAKE THE LOWER
80S. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY TROF UNUSUAL FOR JULY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 AM EDT UPDATE...
ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG TO SET
UP FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TONIGHT IS A
SIMILAR SETUP COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
FLUCTUATIONS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED FOR KITH...KELM... AND KRME
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FROM 17 TO 21Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT PREVAIL IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
SUN THROUGH THU...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA AND EARLY
MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN ON THE 27TH-28TH
CONTINUE. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE EARLIER AND EXPECTED TO
FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA
NWS ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER IN NORWICH REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
BUT WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME THIS MORNING. THE
SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN WILL EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TONIGHT TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SO HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WARNING THERE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER WAVE AT 08Z WAS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CWFA...WITH THE CURL CENTERED NEAR BWP. LINGERING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 35KTS SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE
CWFA BY MID MORNING LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY FORENOON. LOCAL
VERIFICATION SUGGESTS THE FGFBLEND IS BEST BET IN NEAR TERM WHICH
MAKES AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SATURDAYS. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FA SO HAVE PUT SOME PATCHY FG
IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES AFTERNOON CU AND POSSIBLE ISOLD -TSRA.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AND AM LEANING TO KEEP IT
THAT WAY THOUGH THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ARGUE FOR NO RAIN. HOWEVER...LAPS AND
SHORT TERM MODELS DO LAY A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTH/SOUTH TROUGH THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. IT IS ALSO COOLER AT 700 MB TODAY THAN SATURDAY
WHEN THERE WAS ISOLD TSRA. WEAK BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED IN NARROW
BAND OF MU-CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND SHOWALTERS BELOW ZERO IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. NAM12 AND GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE YET ECMWF AND GEM
ALSO SHOW THIS. HRRR DOES DEVELOP ECHOES AFTER 17Z SO MAY THROW
ISOLD TSRA IN AT LAST MINUTE.
IN ANY EVENT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILD IN. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FEEL LOWS WILL
STAY CLOSER TO 60 MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CONIFERS DUE TO RECENT
RAINS AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST TOP-SOILS. HAVE LEANED ON
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSMOS
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT HIGH DRIFTS OVER AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSALL FOR MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS.
TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WARMING TREND. DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
GENERATES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ARGUE FOR ANOTHER 2F
TO 4F INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
AT MIDWEEK... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NEWD FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SINKS SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
FOR WED AND THU. BY FRI AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CANADA
CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY ZONAL. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WED/THU WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN THE FCST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FRI NITE THROUGH SAT NITE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 20C. WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER WAVE APPROACHING BY THE WEEKEND...A COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR AS A
COOLER AIRMASS IN USHERED IN BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG/MVFR CIGS OVER FAR EASTERN
CWFA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND MVFR
CONDS AT BJI TO IMPROVE AFTER 12Z AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OFF. VFR
THEN REST OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
RIVERS ARE BEHAVING ABOUT AS FORECAST. MINOR RISES ARE PREDICTED
AT WAHPETON...WITH HICKSON AND FARGO CONTINUING THE DOWNWARD
TREND. HALSTAD RISING JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST CURVE WITH
EAST GRAND FORKS...OSLO AND DRAYTON RIGHT ON THE CURVE. ON THE
TRIBS SABIN FALLING TOWARDS FS...DILWORTH LOOKS TO HAVE CRESTED
JUST BELOW MODERATE AND IS FALLING. HENDRUM IS NEARLY STEADY JUST
BELOW FS AND FORECAST TO CREST JUST BLO FS. THE WARNING WAS CANCELED
LAST EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...EWENS
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOT HE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH THE 00Z MODELS NOW HINTING THAT THE
FRONT MAY BE POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN BEFORE. THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINS IN PLACE...SANDWICHING THE
CWA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CONTINUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS SET UP AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO INJECT VERY MOIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW
VALUES REACH AROUND 2 INCHES LATER TODAY...SO IF/WHEN ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT
WITH ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS AS WE SEE LOWER INSTABILITY
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...ALONG WITH
WEAKER SHEAR. THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED BY 15Z.
THE MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN/CONVECTION. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MESO MODELS AND THE
HANDLING OF ANY MORNING DEVELOPMENT...THEN LEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
08Z HRRR STILL KEEPS THINGS DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHILE 00Z
SPC WRF WAS HINTING AT SOMETHING FORMING ALONG THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING. THIS WAS INDICATED ON THE 10Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER
THE DELMARVA REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ON GOING OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE DRY THROUGH 14Z...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASED
INTO THIS AFTN. THINKING SCT COVERAGE AT MOST FOR THE AFTN PERIOD
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING NOT EXPECTED TILL
TONIGHT AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST PROVIDING LESS OF A
FORCING MECHANISM TO TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TEMPS A BIT EASIER TO FORECAST FOR...USING A BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR
HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE 80S. IF PCPN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN OR THE MORNING FOG/CLOUDS COVERS LINGERS
LONGER THAN FORECASTED...COULD SEE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES OF
NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MAKE THE ROUNDS BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE PERSISTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AS THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF SEEING AT LEAST SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW VALUES STAY AROUND
2 INCHES DURING THE PERIOD.
THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS TREND...WE COULD SEE THE PRECIP ENDING SOONER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF STILL SQUEEZE THROUGH
ONE MORE SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD THAT COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE INSTABILITY OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING TO
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION. SO WILL CONTINUE POPS WITH SCT
WORDING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WHILE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...SEVERE WX
CONTINUES TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH LOWER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
VALUES...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO PATCHY
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIP
EARLIER IN THE DAY. TEMPS HOVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY MON NIGHT INTO TUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS QUICKER SOLUTION.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED WITH SIMILAR THINKING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.
BROAD FULL LATITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE RETROGRADING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THE TROUGH WILL
BE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TO THE
GULF COAST. DURING THE PERIOD THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDING. AT THE SURFACE THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW WILL BE
WEAKENING ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS TOWARD
THE COAST. CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND
REGIONS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED. BY
LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE JUST SLIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO COAST.
IN ADDITION A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS
AND LOWS FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY...WARMER INLAND AND COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THEN TEMPERATURES EVEN ACROSS LONG ISLAND WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS A LITTLE WARMER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR WEST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE...WELL TO
THE EAST.
STRATUS HAD MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE NYC AND LOWER HUDSON
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFT. THE
EXCEPTION BEING KGON WHERE IMPROVEMENT ONLY TO MVFR IS
FORECAST...BUT THERE MAY A VFR WINDOW FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFT.
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL WORK HERE WITH A REPEAT OF THE
STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.
CONVECTION MAINLY TO IMPACT NW GATE THIS AFT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE TO THE NW OF THE
AREA...SERVING AS THE MAIN FOCUS. A BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
OVERNIGHT IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
LIGHT SLY FLOW THIS MORNING,..INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS.
IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN MAINLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ELEVATED...BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FT TODAY. WHILE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN SUBSIDING BY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST...PRODUCING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...STILL EXPECTING
SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT INTO AT LEAST TUES. WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUES. WINDS
REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS DURING THE PERIOD.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY AS EARLY AS WED AS THE HIGH TAKES
MORE CONTROL OF THE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
730 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A
DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WEAK UPPER
IMPULSES SHOULD RIDE UP ALONG IT TO PRODUCE BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSES LOOK
TO BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH TIME...THIS TROUGH
WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION A LITTLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...ONLY A VERY SIMPLE RE-TOOLING OF THE GRIDS FOR
THIS UPDATE. STILL HAD TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY IN OUR REGION THROUGH ABOUT 900
AM. AFTER THAT...SHOWER AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASES...TO ONLY SLIGHT DURING THE FORENOON...BUT TO CHANCE
CATEGORY (AND SOME LIKELY POP THRESHOLD IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES).
TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. THIS WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK THROUGH THE 70S THROUGH NOON WITH
SOME SUNSHINE. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS.
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPLIT INTO TWO
PORTIONS...WITH ENERGY LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA...AND ANOTHER PIECE
SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY HELPING TO MAINTAIN A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE H20 LOOP INDICATED NOT ONE
BUT TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES ROTATING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...ONE IN SW MISSOURI AND THE OTHER ONE ENTERING NW MINNESOTA.
IT LOOKS AS IF BOTH OF THESE WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER BUT NOT
TODAY.
FOR LATER TODAY NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BE THE FOCI FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE UP
AGAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY BE AROUND
5.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND
30KTS. THE WET-BULB ZERO REMAINED ELEVATED OVER 10,000 FEET AT TIMES
CLOSE TO 12,000 FEET.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL UNLIKELY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THAT SAID...ANY DISCREET CELL COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WIND AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE THEME
OF THE DAY...WE WILL FORECAST "GENERIC" THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED. THE HRRR INDICATED
STORMS TODAY COULD ACTUALLY FORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...OVER THE CATSKILLS AND DRIFT NORTHWARD. A VERY WEAK
STAGNANT BOUNDARY LIES SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION...JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...SO THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION.
WITH H850 TEMPERATURES HOOVERING AROUND +15C THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO WARM READINGS TOPPING OUT 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 60S...WITH SOME SPOTS
PUSHING 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE AGAIN...AS WE LOOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY WE INITIALLY SHOULD
SEE CONVECTION DECREASE. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
OVER SW MISSOURI) WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES...3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHOWER THREAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. CLOUDS AND THE SURGE IN HUMIDITY WILL
KEEP IT MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
THE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT (-U) OFF THE 06Z GEFS LOOKS TO REACH
2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT REALLY UNTIL
TUESDAY.
THE FIRST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ON BY LATE MONDAY
FOLLOWED THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS WHICH
ONE WOULD BE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS
MODELS HITTING HARDER WITH THE FIRST ONE ON MONDAY DESPITE THE FACT
THE ANOMALIES FOR QPF (PER CSTAR RESEARCH) INDICATED TUESDAY COULD
HAVE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
EITHER WAY...THE SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A STRONG STRIP OF VORTICITY
WHICH IN TURN WILL PRODUCE PRETTY GOOD UPWARD MOTION FOCUSED ALONG
THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL STILL BE CLOSE OR RIGHT OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WE EXPECTED LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...CAPPED POPS AT 54 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A BREAK THEN MORE
ACTIVITY.
ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT REALLY THERE AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED (UNDER 1000 J/KG) AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. FOR NOW...WE WILL JUST MENTION THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE ANTICIPATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WENT ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE 75-80
RANGE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHEN (MONDAY OR TUESDAY) WE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH JUST YET. MORE ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...BUT POPS WILL FINALLY SHOW A
SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A VERY BLOCKY PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...
WITH A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE NORTHEAST WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TROUGH AND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE BERMUDA HIGH. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE BERMUDA HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER WESTWARD WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
POSSIBLY REACHING A POSITION NOT TOO FAR OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ALTHOUGH SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
WELL.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY EARLY
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...DECREASING TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER VLIFR FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CONDITIONS BECOME VFR AT
KPSF BY 14Z. KPOU/KGFL AND KALB WILL BE VFR FROM THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR THE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...HAVE FORECAST
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTN/EVENING...BUT TIMING THE
SHOWERS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST FROM 16Z AND BEYOND. LATE TONIGHT A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE SHOWERS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 07Z AT KPOU...08Z AT
KPSF...09Z AT KALB...AND 10Z AT KGFL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 8 KTS OR
LESS...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND OR
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THESE COULD CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE RH WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...NEARLY 100 PERCENT EVERY
NIGHT...DROPPING TO NO LOWER THAN 50-75 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE
FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...TWO STRONGER MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE AVERAGE RIVER BASIN FORECASTS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO 1-2 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS A GOOD BET THERE
WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF VARIATION OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WET
GROUND COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER OR EVEN LOCALIZED FLOODING ANY
TIME THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCES INCREASING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 4 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A
SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL ON THESE
DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
711 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST
AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER DAY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOT HE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH THE 00Z MODELS NOW HINTING THAT THE
FRONT MAY BE POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN BEFORE. THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINS IN PLACE...SANDWICHING THE
CWA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CONTINUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS SET UP AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO INJECT VERY MOIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PW
VALUES REACH AROUND 2 INCHES LATER TODAY...SO IF/WHEN ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM...WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT
WITH ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS AS WE SEE LOWER INSTABILITY
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...ALONG WITH
WEAKER SHEAR. THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING...WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED BY 15Z.
THE MAIN QUESTION OF THE DAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPING
PCPN/CONVECTION. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MESO MODELS AND THE
HANDLING OF ANY MORNING DEVELOPMENT...THEN LEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
08Z HRRR STILL KEEPS THINGS DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...WHILE 00Z
SPC WRF WAS HINTING AT SOMETHING FORMING ALONG THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING. THIS WAS INDICATED ON THE 10Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER
THE DELMARVA REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ON GOING OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE DRY THROUGH 14Z...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASED
INTO THIS AFTN. THINKING SCT COVERAGE AT MOST FOR THE AFTN PERIOD
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING NOT EXPECTED TILL
TONIGHT AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST PROVIDING LESS OF A
FORCING MECHANISM TO TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TEMPS A BIT EASIER TO FORECAST FOR...USING A BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR
HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE 80S. IF PCPN BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN OR THE MORNING FOG/CLOUDS COVERS LINGERS
LONGER THAN FORECASTED...COULD SEE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES OF
NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MAKE THE ROUNDS BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE PERSISTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AS THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF SEEING AT LEAST SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW VALUES STAY AROUND
2 INCHES DURING THE PERIOD.
THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS TREND...WE COULD SEE THE PRECIP ENDING SOONER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF STILL SQUEEZE THROUGH
ONE MORE SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD THAT COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE INSTABILITY OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING TO
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION. SO WILL CONTINUE POPS WITH SCT
WORDING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...AND LIKELY WELL INLAND. WHILE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...SEVERE WX
CONTINUES TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITH LOWER INSTABILITY/SHEAR
VALUES...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO PATCHY
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIP
EARLIER IN THE DAY. TEMPS HOVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY MON NIGHT INTO TUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS QUICKER SOLUTION.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED WITH SIMILAR THINKING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR THE EXTENDED.
BROAD FULL LATITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE RETROGRADING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THE TROUGH WILL
BE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TO THE
GULF COAST. DURING THE PERIOD THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDING. AT THE SURFACE THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW WILL BE
WEAKENING ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS TOWARD
THE COAST. CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND
REGIONS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED. BY
LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE JUST SLIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO COAST.
IN ADDITION A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS
AND LOWS FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY...WARMER INLAND AND COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. THEN TEMPERATURES EVEN ACROSS LONG ISLAND WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEANED TOWARD THE
ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS A LITTLE WARMER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR WEST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE...WELL TO
THE EAST.
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TO BE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE
STRATUS...WHICH LIKE LAST NIGHT WAS ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNS OF WESTWARD EXPANSION...BUT IT HAS
BEEN SHORT LIVED. THUS...PLAN TO RUN WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE OF
FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPER THAN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO REVISE IN SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES TO VFR
IF THERE CONTINUE TO BE NO SIGNS OF STRATUS EXPANDING OR DEVELOPING
FARTHER WEST.
SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 16-18Z SUN. EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH IN THE TAFS.
LIGHT SLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE
DURING THE DAY SUN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE SUNDAY NGT-THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHRA AND/OR TSTMS. IFR OR LOWER ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS
IN MAINLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
ELEVATED...BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FT TODAY. WHILE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN SUBSIDING BY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST...PRODUCING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...STILL EXPECTING
SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT INTO AT LEAST TUES. WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON ALL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUES. WINDS
REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS DURING THE PERIOD.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY AS EARLY AS WED AS THE HIGH TAKES
MORE CONTROL OF THE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY OVER URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...SEARS
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A
DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WEAK UPPER
IMPULSES SHOULD RIDE UP ALONG IT TO PRODUCE BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSES LOOK
TO BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH TIME...THIS TROUGH
WILL ACTUALLY MOVE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION A LITTLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...ONLY A VERY SIMPLE RE-TOOLING OF THE GRIDS FOR
THIS UPDATE. STILL HAD TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY IN OUR REGION THROUGH ABOUT 900
AM. AFTER THAT...SHOWER AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASES...TO ONLY SLIGHT DURING THE FORENOON...BUT TO CHANCE
CATEGORY (AND SOME LIKELY POP THRESHOLD IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES).
TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. THIS WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK THROUGH THE 70S THROUGH NOON WITH
SOME SUNSHINE. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS.
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER AIR LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SPLIT INTO TWO
PORTIONS...WITH ENERGY LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA...AND ANOTHER PIECE
SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY HELPING TO MAINTAIN A LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE H20 LOOP INDICATED NOT ONE
BUT TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES ROTATING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...ONE IN SW MISSOURI AND THE OTHER ONE ENTERING NW MINNESOTA.
IT LOOKS AS IF BOTH OF THESE WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER BUT NOT
TODAY.
FOR LATER TODAY NAMELY THIS AFTERNOON...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BE THE FOCI FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE UP
AGAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY BE AROUND
5.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND
30KTS. THE WET-BULB ZERO REMAINED ELEVATED OVER 10,000 FEET AT TIMES
CLOSE TO 12,000 FEET.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL UNLIKELY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THAT SAID...ANY DISCREET CELL COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WIND AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL. HOWEVER...SINCE THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE THEME
OF THE DAY...WE WILL FORECAST "GENERIC" THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED. THE HRRR INDICATED
STORMS TODAY COULD ACTUALLY FORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...OVER THE CATSKILLS AND DRIFT NORTHWARD. A VERY WEAK
STAGNANT BOUNDARY LIES SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION...JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...SO THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION.
WITH H850 TEMPERATURES HOOVERING AROUND +15C THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO WARM READINGS TOPPING OUT 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 60S...WITH SOME SPOTS
PUSHING 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONCE AGAIN...AS WE LOOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY WE INITIALLY SHOULD
SEE CONVECTION DECREASE. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT IS THAT
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
OVER SW MISSOURI) WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES...3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHOWER THREAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. CLOUDS AND THE SURGE IN HUMIDITY WILL
KEEP IT MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
THE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT (-U) OFF THE 06Z GEFS LOOKS TO REACH
2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT REALLY UNTIL
TUESDAY.
THE FIRST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ON BY LATE MONDAY
FOLLOWED THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS WHICH
ONE WOULD BE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...WITH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS
MODELS HITTING HARDER WITH THE FIRST ONE ON MONDAY DESPITE THE FACT
THE ANOMALIES FOR QPF (PER CSTAR RESEARCH) INDICATED TUESDAY COULD
HAVE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
EITHER WAY...THE SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A STRONG STRIP OF VORTICITY
WHICH IN TURN WILL PRODUCE PRETTY GOOD UPWARD MOTION FOCUSED ALONG
THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL STILL BE CLOSE OR RIGHT OVER
THE HUDSON VALLEY.
WE EXPECTED LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...CAPPED POPS AT 54 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY A BREAK THEN MORE
ACTIVITY.
ONCE AGAIN SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT REALLY THERE AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS LIMITED (UNDER 1000 J/KG) AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. FOR NOW...WE WILL JUST MENTION THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE ANTICIPATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WENT ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE 75-80
RANGE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHEN (MONDAY OR TUESDAY) WE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH JUST YET. MORE ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...BUT POPS WILL FINALLY SHOW A
SLOW DECREASING TREND FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A VERY BLOCKY PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...
WITH A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE NORTHEAST WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST TROUGH AND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE BERMUDA HIGH. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE BERMUDA HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER WESTWARD WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
POSSIBLY REACHING A POSITION NOT TOO FAR OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ALTHOUGH SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
WELL.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY EARLY
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...DECREASING TO MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SINCE KALB/KPOU/KPSF GOT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...WILL KEEP VSBY FROM ANY FOG THAT FORMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE OCNL MVFR RANGE. AT KGFL LOWERED THE VSBY/CIG
TO OCNL IFR FOR ANY FOG FORMATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOR THE
POSSIBLE FOG AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...HAVE FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
(06Z MONDAY). THERE WILL BE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENING...BUT TIMING THE SHOWERS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME
SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FROM 16Z AND BEYOND.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY...THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
LAT SUN NITE-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
AND OR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AT THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENT WET
CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THESE COULD CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE RH WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...NEARLY 100 PERCENT EVERY
NIGHT...DROPPING TO NO LOWER THAN 50-75 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE
FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE MOHAWK RIVER.
ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...TWO STRONGER MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE AVERAGE RIVER BASIN FORECASTS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO 1-2 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS A GOOD BET THERE
WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF VARIATION OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME. ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WET
GROUND COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER OR EVEN LOCALIZED FLOODING ANY
TIME THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCES INCREASING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 4 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
THIS RAINFALL COULD NOT ONLY BRING FLASH FLOODING BUT COULD CAUSE
RISES ON SOME MAJOR STEM RIVERS.
THERE STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A
SCATTERED BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HEAVY RAINFALL ON THESE
DAYS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LOCALIZED.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TODAY TO INCREASE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
I-55 AND ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS AREA TODAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S LOOKS ON TRACK.
568 DM 500 MB LOW NEAR INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY MONDAY/TUE KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND NEXT FEW DAYS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 643 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
MVFR CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE TAFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY FOR SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING INTO WESTERN IL FROM
INDIANA MIGHT PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL VORTICITY THAT MAY HELP
COLD-AIR FUNNELS DEVELOP. WE KEPT A VCSH GOING FOR MOST TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WITH VCTS FOR THE EAST LOCATIONS OF CMI/DEC...WHERE
THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER COLD POOL.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 12G22KT
IN MOST AREAS. CLEARING AND LESS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
00Z...AS WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KT WITH REDUCED MIXING.
SHIMON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW AND TROUGH
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL US THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER MAINLY
DIURNAL PCPN OVER IL.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR THIS EVENING DISPLAYS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IN
WITH JET FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO AR TO THE CENTRAL EAST COAST. CORE
OF 500MB COLD AIR OVER IL/IN AT 00Z WHICH WAS THE ALOFT TRIGGER
FOR THE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY THROUGHOUT THE MID MS AND OH
VALLEY REGIONS. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX OVER
NORTHEAST IA AT 00Z ROTATING SOUTH AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN MO TODAY...PULLING THE MAIN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD WITH IT.
EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OF CONVECTION TODAY...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH 1/2 OF CWA. INSTABILITY SIMILAR
TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND 12 AND TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE 46 TO 48 RANGE WITH CAPE ABOUT 1000. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
IN RAPPING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED
THE POPS WITH SOME OF THIS CONVECTION THIS MORNING REACHING
CWA...BEFORE WEAKENING AS PART THE HRRR AND OTHER MESO MODELS.
WITH MO VORT MAX AND UPPER LOW FURTHER SOUTH...BEST AREA FOR LATER
REDEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SOUTHERN 1/3 OF
STATE.
MODELS THEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START OF UPPER LOW THEN
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WITH THAT TREND...THE
UPPER LOW BRINGS THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION BACK WITH
IT...SPREADING INCREASING POPS STARTING ON MONDAY BACK INTO THE CWA
AND THEN OVER ALL THE REGION TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS START
TO DIFFER SOME ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LOW IN THE REGION...INCREASED THE POPS A BIT OVER AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS KEEP THE FILLING UPPER SYSTEM OVER WEST IL
AND JUST WEST OF REGION...CONTINUING THE TREND OF TRIGGERING
DIURNAL PCPN WITH GRADUAL SLOW WARMING OF TEMPS AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINS.
BY THURSDAY THE LOW IS OPENING UP AND THE TROF WEAKENING AND STARTS
TO MOVE OUT TO NORTH. ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH SYSTEM BRINGING IN
MOIST MORE SUMMER TYPE OF AIRMASS FOR FRI AND INTO WEEKEND.
GOETSCH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW AND TROUGH
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL US THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER MAINLY
DIURNAL PCPN OVER IL.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR THIS EVENING DISPLAYS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IN
WITH JET FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO AR TO THE CENTRAL EAST COAST. CORE OF
500MB COLD AIR OVER IL/IN AT 00Z WHICH WAS THE ALOFT TRIGGER FOR THE
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY THROUGHOUT THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS.
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX OVER NORTHEAST IA AT 00Z
ROTATING SOUTH AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MO TODAY...PULLING
THE MAIN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD WITH IT. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OF CONVECTION TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN
THE SOUTH 1/2 OF CWA. INSTABILITY SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH
500MB TEMPS AROUND 12 AND TOTAL TOTALS IN THE 46 TO 48 RANGE WITH
CAPE ABOUT 1000. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER IN RAPPING SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED THE POPS WITH SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION THIS MORNING REACHING CWA...BEFORE WEAKENING AS PART
THE HRRR AND OTHER MESO MODELS. WITH MO VORT MAX AND UPPER LOW
FURTHER SOUTH...BEST AREA FOR LATER REDEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SOUTHERN 1/3 OF STATE.
MODELS THEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START OF UPPER LOW THEN
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WITH THAT TREND...THE
UPPER LOW BRINGS THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION BACK WITH
IT...SPREADING INCREASING POPS STARTING ON MONDAY BACK INTO THE CWA
AND THEN OVER ALL THE REGION TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS START
TO DIFFER SOME ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LOW IN THE REGION...INCREASED THE POPS A BIT OVER AREA.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS KEEP THE FILLING UPPER SYSTEM OVER WEST IL
AND JUST WEST OF REGION...CONTINUING THE TREND OF TRIGGERING DIURNAL
PCPN WITH GRADUAL SLOW WARMING OF TEMPS AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BEGINS.
BY THURS THE LOW IS OPENING UP AND THE TROF WEAKENING AND STARTS
TO MOVE OUT TO NORTH. ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH SYSTEM BRINGING IN
MOIST MORE SUMMER TYPE OF AIRMASS FOR FRI AND INTO WEEKEND.
GOETSCH
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 643 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
MVFR CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE TAFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY FOR SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING INTO WESTERN IL FROM
INDIANA MIGHT PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL VORTICITY THAT MAY HELP
COLD-AIR FUNNELS DEVELOP. WE KEPT A VCSH GOING FOR MOST TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WITH VCTS FOR THE EAST LOCATIONS OF CMI/DEC...WHERE
THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER COLD POOL.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 12G22KT
IN MOST AREAS. CLEARING AND LESS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
00Z...AS WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 10KT WITH REDUCED MIXING.
SHIMON
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1159 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG AND A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FROM 17 TO 21Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT PREVAIL IN TAF. AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION...FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA AND EARLY
MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1145 AM UPDATE...
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE /YET ABOVE ACTION
STAGE/ FOR NORWICH AND SHERBURNE. ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO
UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING
ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR
THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING
ABOVE ACTION STAGES TO MINOR FLOOD POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL POINTS
ESPECIALLY UPPER SUSQUEHANNA BASIN WITHIN A 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW.
DECISION ON POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1104 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE ON
TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVING BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1055 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN STORY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...JUST A BIT SOUTH OF WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY OR
FROM BTV SOUTH AND EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF 1-2.5" OF RAIN SIMILIAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY (2.41" AT SUTTON VT AND AN INCH IN AND AROUND CHITTENDEN CO).
AMOUNTS LIKE THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF AGAIN PRODUCING ISOLATED
MINOR FLASH FLOODING. TOYED WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THINKING
IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT EXACTLY THE
SAME AREAS AS YESTERDAY JUST A BIT SOUTH.
SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM VCTY KART-KMPV-K1V4 AND SOUTH AND
EAST LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVIEST SWATHS OF PRECIPTATION. RAP MODEL SHOWS A
NICE AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTH.
TALL NARRROW CAPE PROFILES PROGGED TO REACH 500-1500 J/KG N TO S AGAIN
SHOWING HIGHEST JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S.
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13K FT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICENT RAIN
PRODUCTION IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
PARALLEL SW FLOW ALOFT SO EXPECT SW-NE MOVING CELLS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
MORNING SOUNDING FROM ALY INDICATED PWAT OF 1.4" JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY AND MOVE N THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VALUES UP TO
NEAR 1.80".
LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED IN TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINLY MID 70S MTNS TO L80S WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WL DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET...AS LLVL STABILIZE AND BEST S/W ENERGY LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS THRU 03Z...THEN AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOPING PER SATURATED BL CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
50S COOLER MTN VALLEYS TO M60S CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
WL CONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON
TUES AS BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS
VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING
AS S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200%
ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN
ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL BE
LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH
FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION CHC POPS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LIKELY ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ON MONDAY. WL CARRY THESE LIKELY POPS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR SO ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH GFS/SREF SHOW FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND BEST S/W ENERGY ARRIVING AROUND 00Z...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN VT. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY
WITH LIS AROUND -2C AND CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG. WL MENTION SCHC
TO CHC OF THUNDER IN GRIDS. TUESDAY...INSTABILITY INCREASES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...AS
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IS BETTER...ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY IN PLACE.
TUESDAY COULD BE A VERY BUSY DAY WITH HYDRO PRODUCTS...WITH
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND HYDRO
SECTION BLW...BUT EVENTUALLY ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CRNT INDICATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MID-LATE SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH FORECAST AREA INBETWEEN STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR AND A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEAR HIGHEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHEN REMNANTS
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS REGION...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD (NEAR 2 INCHES)...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED THIS
MONTH AND THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE MAY
RETROGRADE WEST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
ZONAL...WHICH MAY HELP DRY THINGS OUT JUST A BIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE
HUMID. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 80S...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING BTV/MPV/SLK
EARLY TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 13Z-14Z. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT MSS BETWEEN 18Z-24Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS. SHOWERS
END THIS EVENING...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE MVFR/IFR IN SOME FOG/BR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE PLACES THAT SEE RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VT. WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...SOME
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
INCREASE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE... SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV NEEDS 0.37" OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO BREAK THE
ALL-TIME JUNE PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 9.92.
THE 18.30" MAY-JUN TOTAL IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD BESTING THE
13.87" IN 2006.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS/SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...BTV
CLIMATE...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE ON
TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVING BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1055 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN STORY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...JUST A BIT SOUTH OF WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY OR
FROM BTV SOUTH AND EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF 1-2.5" OF RAIN SIMILIAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY (2.41" AT SUTTON VT AND AN INCH IN AND AROUND CHITTENDEN CO).
AMOUNTS LIKE THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF AGAIN PRODUCING ISOLATED
MINOR FLASH FLOODING. TOYED WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THINKING
IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT EXACTLY THE
SAME AREAS AS YESTERDAY JUST A BIT SOUTH.
SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM VCTY KART-KMPV-K1V4 AND SOUTH AND
EAST LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVIEST SWATHS OF PRECIPTATION. RAP MODEL SHOWS A
NICE AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTH.
TALL NARRROW CAPE PROFILES PROGGED TO REACH 500-1500 J/KG N TO S AGAIN
SHOWING HIGHEST JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S.
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13K FT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICENT RAIN
PRODUCTION IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
PARALLEL SW FLOW ALOFT SO EXPECT SW-NE MOVING CELLS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
MORNING SOUNDING FROM ALY INDICATED PWAT OF 1.4" JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY AND MOVE N THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VALUES UP TO
NEAR 1.80".
LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED IN TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINLY MID 70S MTNS TO L80S WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WL DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET...AS LLVL STABILIZE AND BEST S/W ENERGY LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS THRU 03Z...THEN AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOPING PER SATURATED BL CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
50S COOLER MTN VALLEYS TO M60S CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
WL CONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON
TUES AS BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS
VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING
AS S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200%
ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN
ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL BE
LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH
FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION CHC POPS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LIKELY ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ON MONDAY. WL CARRY THESE LIKELY POPS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR SO ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH GFS/SREF SHOW FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND BEST S/W ENERGY ARRIVING AROUND 00Z...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN VT. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY
WITH LIS AROUND -2C AND CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG. WL MENTION SCHC
TO CHC OF THUNDER IN GRIDS. TUESDAY...INSTABILITY INCREASES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...AS
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IS BETTER...ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY IN PLACE.
TUESDAY COULD BE A VERY BUSY DAY WITH HYDRO PRODUCTS...WITH
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND HYDRO
SECTION BLW...BUT EVENTUALLY ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CRNT INDICATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MID-LATE SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH FORECAST AREA INBETWEEN STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR AND A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEAR HIGHEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHEN REMNANTS
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS REGION...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD (NEAR 2 INCHES)...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED THIS
MONTH AND THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE MAY
RETROGRADE WEST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
ZONAL...WHICH MAY HELP DRY THINGS OUT JUST A BIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE
HUMID. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 80S...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING BTV/MPV/SLK
EARLY TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 13Z-14Z. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT MSS BETWEEN 18Z-24Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS. SHOWERS
END THIS EVENING...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE MVFR/IFR IN SOME FOG/BR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE PLACES THAT SEE RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VT. WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...SOME
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
INCREASE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE... SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS/SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
759 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TTODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE TEMP FORECAST.
1230 PM SAT UPDATE...
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE OR MODELS SINCE
YESTERDAY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES AND POPS ABOVE
NORMAL. EURO AND GFS SIMILAR WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE STAGNANT
PATTERN FOR THE CONUS. DEEP TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUT THE
AREA IN A MOIST AND WARM SW FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHC POPS
EVERY DAY. WITH DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 80S. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY TROF UNUSUAL FOR
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG AND A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FROM 17 TO 21Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT PREVAIL IN TAF. AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION...FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA AND EARLY
MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
755 AM UPDATE...
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS FROM THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER
IN UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY STILL IN MODERATE
FLOOD CATEGORY ON WAY TO MINOR...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER IN NORWICH OVERNIGHT FINALLY SLIPPED BELOW
FLOOD STAGE SO THE ASSOCIATED FLOOD WARNING THERE WILL NOT NEED TO
BE RENEWED /EXPIRING AT 8 AM/. THE SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN HAS
HOVERED ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE MONDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO NEW RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR THAT
FORECAST POINT.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
633 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TTODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE TEMP FORECAST.
1230 PM SAT UPDATE...
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE OR MODELS SINCE
YESTERDAY. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES AND POPS ABOVE
NORMAL. EURO AND GFS SIMILAR WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE STAGNANT
PATTERN FOR THE CONUS. DEEP TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUT THE
AREA IN A MOIST AND WARM SW FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHC POPS
EVERY DAY. WITH DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 80S. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY TROF UNUSUAL FOR
JULY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG AND A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FROM 17 TO 21Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT PREVAIL IN TAF. AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION...FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA AND EARLY
MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN ON THE 27TH-28TH
CONTINUE. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE EARLIER AND EXPECTED TO
FALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA
NWS ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER IN NORWICH REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
BUT WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME THIS MORNING. THE
SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN WILL EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TONIGHT TO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SO HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WARNING THERE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1002 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. EARLIER CONVECTION BETWEEN MINOT AND BISMARCK HAS
DISSIPATED. CURRENTLY CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH
DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP HERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM 12 UTC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES FROM
4-700J/KG. UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AND WARM SO CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CURRENT POPS IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THIS UPDATE EXPANDED ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS A BIT NORTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR ONGOING SHOWERS ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MINOT AND
BISMARCK. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND A RESULTANT NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA HAVE BEEN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND OR EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. THERE WILL BE SHIFT TO MOVE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z BEFORE ENDING THEM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AND HENCE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MORE SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80F WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE LONG TERM IS ON LOCATION OF THE JET
STREAM. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES
THAT THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY BRIEFLY
PHASE WITH THE ALASKAN UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS WEEK. SUBSEQUENT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO WESTERN
CANADA IS LESS EXTREME. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES UNTIL FRIDAY.
THEN...A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE REASON THE JET LOCATION IS SO IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN
CONSIDERABLY REDUCED THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS OF FORECAST UPDATES...SINCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS
DIFFICULT TO RELEASE DURING THE SUMMER WITHOUT AT LEAST SOME
MIDDLE LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT.
THE FORECAST NOW DELAYS PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DIRECTS THE JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS VERY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER BASED ON VERY LARGE 00 UTC MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SPREAD...BUT IT APPEARS A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 01/06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE UPDATE THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK. THE ONLY QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WILL SEE ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HAVE OCCURRED THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST AND WATCH CU
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND ADD POPS IF WARRANTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE CWFA PULLING CLOUDS WITH
IT. MUCH OF THIS UPDATE THEN DEALS WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THE
MORNING & AFTERNOON. IR AND WV SHOW PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. EXPECT THIS TO
BE PREDOMINANTLY THIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CHALLENGE REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND LOW
END RISK OF TSRA. 06Z MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF AMOUNT OF MU-CAPE
AND SHOWALTERS FROM 00Z RUNS. YET SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLD MOIST CONVECTION AS 700 TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER THAN
SATURDAY. IF LOW LEVEL FORCING BECOMES ORGANIZED LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO ADD POPS.
PATCHES OF BR CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA AND THIS SHOULD
LIFT BY 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER WAVE AT 08Z WAS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CWFA...WITH THE CURL CENTERED NEAR BWP. LINGERING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 35KTS SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE
CWFA BY MID MORNING LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY FORENOON. LOCAL
VERIFICATION SUGGESTS THE FGFBLEND IS BEST BET IN NEAR TERM WHICH
MAKES AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SATURDAYS. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FA SO HAVE PUT SOME PATCHY FG
IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES AFTERNOON CU AND POSSIBLE ISOLD -TSRA.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AND AM LEANING TO KEEP IT
THAT WAY THOUGH THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ARGUE FOR NO RAIN. HOWEVER...LAPS AND
SHORT TERM MODELS DO LAY A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTH/SOUTH TROUGH THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. IT IS ALSO COOLER AT 700 MB TODAY THAN SATURDAY
WHEN THERE WAS ISOLD TSRA. WEAK BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED IN NARROW
BAND OF MU-CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND SHOWALTERS BELOW ZERO IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. NAM12 AND GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE YET ECMWF AND GEM
ALSO SHOW THIS. HRRR DOES DEVELOP ECHOES AFTER 17Z SO MAY THROW
ISOLD TSRA IN AT LAST MINUTE.
IN ANY EVENT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILD IN. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FEEL LOWS WILL
STAY CLOSER TO 60 MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CONIFERS DUE TO RECENT
RAINS AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST TOP-SOILS. HAVE LEANED ON
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSMOS
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT HIGH DRIFTS OVER AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSALL FOR MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS.
TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WARMING TREND. DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
GENERATES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ARGUE FOR ANOTHER 2F
TO 4F INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
AT MIDWEEK... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NEWD FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SINKS SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
FOR WED AND THU. BY FRI AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CANADA
CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY ZONAL. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WED/THU WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN THE FCST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FRI NITE THROUGH SAT NITE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 20C. WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER WAVE APPROACHING BY THE WEEKEND...A COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR AS A
COOLER AIRMASS IN USHERED IN BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG/MVFR CIGS OVER FAR EASTERN CWFA...WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 14Z...VFR CONDS EXIST. PERSISTENT IFR/MVFR
CONDS AT BJI ALSO FORECAST TO IMPROVE AROUND 14Z. VFR THEN REST
OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
RIVERS ARE BEHAVING ABOUT AS FORECAST. MINOR RISES ARE PREDICTED
AT WAHPETON...WITH HICKSON AND FARGO CONTINUING THE DOWNWARD
TREND. HALSTAD RISING JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST CURVE WITH
EAST GRAND FORKS...OSLO AND DRAYTON RIGHT ON THE CURVE. ON THE
TRIBS SABIN FALLING TOWARDS FS...DILWORTH LOOKS TO HAVE CRESTED
JUST BELOW MODERATE AND IS FALLING. HENDRUM IS NEARLY STEADY JUST
BELOW FS AND FORECAST TO CREST JUST BLO FS. THE WARNING WAS CANCELED
LAST EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...EWENS
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
646 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE CWFA PULLING CLOUDS WITH
IT. MUCH OF THIS UPDATE THEN DEALS WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THE
MORNING & AFTERNOON. IR AND WV SHOW PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. EXPECT THIS TO
BE PREDOMINANTLY THIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CHALLENGE REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND LOW
END RISK OF TSRA. 06Z MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF AMOUNT OF MU-CAPE
AND SHOWALTERS FROM 00Z RUNS. YET SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLD MOIST CONVECTION AS 700 TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER THAN
SATURDAY. IF LOW LEVEL FORCING BECOMES ORGANIZED LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO ADD POPS.
PATCHES OF BR CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA AND THIS SHOULD
LIFT BY 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER WAVE AT 08Z WAS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CWFA...WITH THE CURL CENTERED NEAR BWP. LINGERING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 35KTS SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE
CWFA BY MID MORNING LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY FORENOON. LOCAL
VERIFICATION SUGGESTS THE FGFBLEND IS BEST BET IN NEAR TERM WHICH
MAKES AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SATURDAYS. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FA SO HAVE PUT SOME PATCHY FG
IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES AFTERNOON CU AND POSSIBLE ISOLD -TSRA.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AND AM LEANING TO KEEP IT
THAT WAY THOUGH THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ARGUE FOR NO RAIN. HOWEVER...LAPS AND
SHORT TERM MODELS DO LAY A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTH/SOUTH TROUGH THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. IT IS ALSO COOLER AT 700 MB TODAY THAN SATURDAY
WHEN THERE WAS ISOLD TSRA. WEAK BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED IN NARROW
BAND OF MU-CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND SHOWALTERS BELOW ZERO IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. NAM12 AND GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE YET ECMWF AND GEM
ALSO SHOW THIS. HRRR DOES DEVELOP ECHOES AFTER 17Z SO MAY THROW
ISOLD TSRA IN AT LAST MINUTE.
IN ANY EVENT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILD IN. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FEEL LOWS WILL
STAY CLOSER TO 60 MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CONIFERS DUE TO RECENT
RAINS AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST TOP-SOILS. HAVE LEANED ON
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSMOS
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT HIGH DRIFTS OVER AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSALL FOR MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS.
TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WARMING TREND. DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
GENERATES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ARGUE FOR ANOTHER 2F
TO 4F INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
AT MIDWEEK... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NEWD FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SINKS SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
FOR WED AND THU. BY FRI AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CANADA
CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY ZONAL. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WED/THU WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN THE FCST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FRI NITE THROUGH SAT NITE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 20C. WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER WAVE APPROACHING BY THE WEEKEND...A COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR AS A
COOLER AIRMASS IN USHERED IN BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG/MVFR CIGS OVER FAR EASTERN CWFA...WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 14Z...VFR CONDS EXIST. PERSISTENT IFR/MVFR
CONDS AT BJI ALSO FORECAST TO IMPROVE AROUND 14Z. VFR THEN REST
OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
RIVERS ARE BEHAVING ABOUT AS FORECAST. MINOR RISES ARE PREDICTED
AT WAHPETON...WITH HICKSON AND FARGO CONTINUING THE DOWNWARD
TREND. HALSTAD RISING JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST CURVE WITH
EAST GRAND FORKS...OSLO AND DRAYTON RIGHT ON THE CURVE. ON THE
TRIBS SABIN FALLING TOWARDS FS...DILWORTH LOOKS TO HAVE CRESTED
JUST BELOW MODERATE AND IS FALLING. HENDRUM IS NEARLY STEADY JUST
BELOW FS AND FORECAST TO CREST JUST BLO FS. THE WARNING WAS CANCELED
LAST EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...EWENS
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
732 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE. REMOVED FOG FROM NE
OH FOR THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY BACK INTO
THE AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP BLOSSOMING TOWARD MIDDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER NW OH. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP THAT AREA.
LIGHTNING NEAR KDAY THIS MORNING SHOULD ROTATE AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND STILL NOT EXPECT THUNDER TILL MIDDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
ORIGINAL...FOR A CHANGE THE RADAR IS NEARLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. STARTING TO
SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY. THE PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE HIT AND MISS SO WILL
GO WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDER
IS LIKELY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. ALTHOUGH ALL
AREAS SHOULD EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. GFS MOS DID REALLY WELL YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS AND
SEEMS REASONABLE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH NEW TO WRITE ABOUT TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE S AND W OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE AN INVERTED TROUGH
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA MOST OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
AT LEAST PARTIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DROP
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER LATE EVENING. WILL NEED LIKELY WORDING
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
TUESDAY WHEN THE AREA WILL BE RIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN JUICED WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA FINALLY SEES SW
FLOW RETURN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY WEEKS END. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL BUILD BACK WEST AND EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BUILD RESULTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WEST INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
RIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH QUICK SHOTS OF UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A CONTINUOUS THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE HINTING AT
CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BY THAT TIME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...WITH ATLANTIC/BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...WARM TROPICAL AIR
WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREAS BUT
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIFTING NORTH
INTO A BETTER AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND MAY INTENSIFY A BIT. I
DECIDED TO ADD A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS AT FINDLAY THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WERE LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS MANSFIELD TOWARD CLEVELAND. MENTIONED A PERIOD OF
SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST
ABOUT ANY WHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...WILL KEEP IT DRY EAST OF TOLEDO AND FINDLAY
LINE AT THIS TIME. WESTERN PORTIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CONVERGENCE AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST NORTHEAST.
LOOKING AT POSSIBLE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY LAKE CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA BY TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST HALF OF THE LAKE.
THEN...EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND WAVES SUBSIDE TO A FOOT OR
LESS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MOST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE. REMOVED FOG FROM NE
OH FOR THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY BACK INTO
THE AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP BLOSSOMING TOWARD MIDDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER NW OH. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP THAT AREA.
LIGHTNING NEAR KDAY THIS MORNING SHOULD ROTATE AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND STILL NOT EXPECT THUNDER TILL MIDDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
ORIGINAL...FOR A CHANGE THE RADAR IS NEARLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. STARTING TO
SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY. THE PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE HIT AND MISS SO WILL
GO WITH SCATTERED WORDING MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDER
IS LIKELY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. ALTHOUGH ALL
AREAS SHOULD EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. GFS MOS DID REALLY WELL YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS AND
SEEMS REASONABLE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH NEW TO WRITE ABOUT TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE S AND W OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE AN INVERTED TROUGH
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA MOST OF THE PERIOD. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
AT LEAST PARTIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO DROP
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER LATE EVENING. WILL NEED LIKELY WORDING
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
TUESDAY WHEN THE AREA WILL BE RIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN JUICED WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA FINALLY SEES SW
FLOW RETURN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY WEEKS END. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL BUILD BACK WEST AND EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BUILD RESULTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WEST INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
RIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH QUICK SHOTS OF UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A CONTINUOUS THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE HINTING AT
CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BY THAT TIME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...WITH ATLANTIC/BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...WARM TROPICAL AIR
WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS BREAKING APART IN THE EAST AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. SO WILL MENTION
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES THROUGH SUNRISE AND IMPROVE
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE I WOULD THINK WOULD BE IN THE WEST AT TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE ACTIVITY
WOULD DEVELOP IN THE EAST AND THE TIMING SO WILL LEAVE IT DRY IN
THOSE AREAS FOR NOW.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST NORTHEAST.
LOOKING AT POSSIBLE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY LAKE CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA BY TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST HALF OF THE LAKE.
THEN...EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND WAVES SUBSIDE TO A FOOT OR
LESS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
628 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO ORGANIZED FRONTS TO PASS. DEEPER
MOISTURE ALONG EAST COAST CREEPS BACK WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG NC COAST BY INDEPENDENCE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG SHORT WAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTH INTO NRN
MISSOURI AT 07Z...ON WEST SIDE OF 500 MB TROF CENTERED OVER INDIANA.
THIS WILL TRY TO REDEVELOP THE 500 TROF AXIS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH
LATER TODAY...IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...500 MB HEIGHTS
RISE HERE AFTER 15Z. 700 MB STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE TOWARD SOUTH
AND WEAKENS.
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE NORTH ALONG EAST
SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF. ONE SUCH SHORT WAVE WAS LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO AT 07Z. IT HELPED LINGER SHOWERS IN HTS TRI
STATE FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. PATCHES OF FOG FORMED FURTHER E
IN WV.
BY 18Z TO 21Z RAP MODEL SHOWING CHANNELED VORTICITY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY SOUTH INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. LIKE SATURDAY...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE ONLY LIMITED CAPE WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AOB 30
THSD. HAVING MOST POPS TOP OUT AROUND 40 PCT TDY...WITH A BIT
HIGHER IN EASTERN OHIO AND ANOTHER SECONDARY MAX OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AT LEAST WE REMAIN IN THE RELATIVE MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
TODAY BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE OHIO VALLEY TROF.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...OUR ATTENTION BEGINS TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE
EAST. WITH 700 MB MORE SOUTHERLY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING...DEEPER
MOISTURE ALSO CREEPS WEST. WITH NO REAL WEATHER BOUNDARIES ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE...TERRAIN AND WEAK SE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
THE MAIN FORCING. SO HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES BY DAWN MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON A SYNOPTIC LEVEL...MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSING OFF
OVER LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND EVEN RETROGRADING SOME BACK INTO
MISSOURI THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS THE CWA IN GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW...PUMPING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. TO START THE PERIOD...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD...BUT AS THE LOW DRIFTS
WEST...THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO DRIFT WESTWARD AND MAY GET
INTO THE WV MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY LOOKING AT HIGH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...WITH LOWER CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS. EXPECT NEAR TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH LOWS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO SLOW RETROGRADE W AS UPR TROF TO W FILLS IN.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PERHAPS W OF THE AREA LATE
IN THE EXTENDED. UNTIL THEN...UNSETTLED WX WILL BE THE RULE WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL NATURE OF POPS WITH HIGH CHC EACH AFTN...WANING WITH
AFTER SUNSET. NOT EXPECTING TOTAL WASHOUTS EACH DAY AS A RESULT BUT
INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MEAN DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. PWATS
LOOK TO CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY WEEKS END. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
WATER CONCERNS...BUT MID LVL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOVING. CONCERN
WOULD BE FOR PERHAPS SOME S TO N TRAINING LINES. STATUS QUO FOR
TEMPS EXPECTED...WITH SEASONAL HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG MOST WIDESPREAD HTS-CRW ON DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AT DAWN SUNDAY. HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AROUND 12Z.
STRING OF 500 MB VORT MAXIMUMS SWING NORTH AROUND WEAKENING 500 MB
TROF OVER INDIANA THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM IN TIMING THE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...MOST
COMMON OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...COMPARED TO FURTHER EAST. CONFIDENCE
ALSO LOWERS WHEN TRYING TO PREDICT THE FOG OVERNIGHT AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF EVENING SHOWERS AND LINGERING CLOUDS.
THEN TRY TO FORM NEW CONVECTION BY MIDDAY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
THE TRI STATE AROUND HTS AND LIFT MAINLY NORTH. LEFT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 03Z MONDAY.
CEILINGS MAINLY 5 TO 10 THSD FT BKN AT NIGHT...WITH CU FORMING AT 2
TO 4 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN FOR 14Z THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
VSBY BRIEFLY NEAR 3 MILES IN CONVECTION.
AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR 06Z TO 11Z SUNDAY IN LOCAL FOG...BUT VSBY MAY
BE VARIABLE DUE TO THAT DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO EASTERN OHIO.
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN BY 06Z MONDAY WITH SOME IFR BY 08Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY. AMOUNT AND AREAS OF FOG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY L M L H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L M L H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH LOWER CEILINGS ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1050 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN CENTRAL SD THIS
MORNING DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THE WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT RESPONSIBLE
FOR THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH MORE SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDER TO CONTINUE/DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER WAVE HEADS SOUTH. ADDED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE
CENTRAL SD FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH IF MORE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AND INCREASE POPS. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE
LATEST NAM ALSO SHOW SOME SPOTTY QPF ACROSS CENTRAL SD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK GOOD.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WEAK VORT MAX IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS A FEW
ISO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH ONE HAVING CROSSED THE BORDER INTO
SD/MCPHERSON COUNTY WITH SOME 30-40 DBZ RETURNS. HAVE UPDATED THE
SHORT TERM POP GRIDS TO REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS LIKELY
FROM THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT NOW.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A JET STREAK CROSSING THE REGION AS WELL.
MODELS SHOW THIS JET MAX MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A STRUNG OUT AREA OF VORTICITY WITH VERY
WEAK OMEGA THAT EXTENDS FURTHER NORTH BACK INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
BUT WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL PROMOTE VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON IS A BIT IN QUESTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. ASIDE FROM WHATEVER VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
STILL A BIT OUT OF THE ORDINARY...BUT WILL BE SEEING UPPER LEVEL
STEERING FLOW COMING JUST ABOUT STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR
PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF NORTH AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST
WILL BE CRASHING DOWN WHILE MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. THE TRANSITION TO WESTERLIES BY THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
MORE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BACK TO THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND SEVERAL NIGHTS OF LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ALLBLEND POPS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF NOW
BASICALLY KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. WILL AMEND TAFS TO INCLUDE PRECIP
MENTION AS NECESSARY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1003 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING POST-MCS. FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...WHILE MORE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING CENTRAL TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THINGS WELL
THIS MORNING...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD WEAKEN
THE STUFF CURRENTLY IN EWX FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES DOWN...BUT
THAT JUST DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THE TREND AT THIS TIME. THUS HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADJUST AFTERNOON POPS DOWN THE ROAD
IF THIS STUFF DOES INDEED HOLD TOGETHER. HRRR MODEL ALSO INDICATES
YET ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL PLAY THE WAITING GAME FOR A LITTLE WHILE AND SEE
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THAT.
THE OTHER BIG CHALLENGE IS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRST ROUND OF STORMS REALLY KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN THROUGH THE
COASTAL BEND...CRP STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 70S AT 10AM...OTHER
SITES REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THESE COMPLEXES...BUT NOT SURE IT`S GOING TO BE
ENOUGH TO GET OUR TEMPS TOO FAR INTO THE 90S FOR MANY OF US. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST WITH SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS CONVECTION. WILL
PROBABLY NEED ANOTHER TEMP UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING ONCE WE SEE
HOW COASTAL BEND TEMPS ARE RECOVERING FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.
AVIATION...FIRST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHRAS AND TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. ALI/CRP TAFS WILL
BE IMPACTED THROUGH 15Z AND LRD THROUGH 14Z. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS
AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ATTENTION TURNS TO SECOND DISTURBANCE
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION...POSSIBLY IMPACTING SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EXACT
TIMING HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS IN THE LRD/ALI/CRP TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND
FOLLOWED WITH A BLEND OF THE HI RESOLUTION HRRR/NMM THROUGH
18Z...WITH SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FORECAST. THIS AFTERNOON...HI
RESOLUTION AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SECOND UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. MOISTURE POOL OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE POOLED OVER THE AREA...AND
ANY FORCING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OR BOUNDARIES WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS TODAY COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY TODAY
WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK THAT WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...AND IN A FEW SPOTS (LRD) UNDERCUT MOS.
DRIER AIR WORKS ITO THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIPPING INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP A LOW POP ALONG AND WEST OF U.S.
281 MONDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS RESIDES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...POTENT UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS PROGD TO SHIFT W MONDAY NIGHT/TUE.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S ACROSS THE FAR W CWA MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT THE MODELS PROG
TO TRACK SWD ACROSS MEX. BY TUE THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE PROGD
TO BE FARTHER AWAY FROM S TX WITH THE TROF AXIS DRAPED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE TX COAST. THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE
NE CWA AND COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT/WED THEREFORE KEPT A SILENT 10
POP IN PLACE. MOISTURE IS PROGD TO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THU WITH
FRI BEING A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS GULF MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS S TX.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EASTERLY WAVE SHIFT NWD FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TOWARD S TX
WITH PWATS PROGD TO BE BETWEEN 2-2.5 INCHES. KEPT THE 20-30 POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LOW REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS PROGS THIS UPPER LOW TO BE A WAVE MVG IN
FROM THE E WHILE THE ECMWF PROGS THE UPPER LOW TO BE THE SAME LOW
CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT BEING CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM. EITHER
WAY...BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY KEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LOWS. WINDS ARE A BIT TRICKY THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A WEAK BDRY MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
WINDS VARYING FROM SE TO NE. WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE S
AND SE BY MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 75 100 73 95 / 50 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 98 70 99 68 94 / 30 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 96 77 99 75 98 / 50 20 20 20 10
ALICE 94 73 100 71 97 / 50 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 86 78 95 74 91 / 40 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 95 74 98 69 96 / 40 20 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 93 75 101 72 97 / 50 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 86 76 93 76 91 / 50 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1051 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...LATE NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION STILL GOING OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SUNNIER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS WELL. THERE IS FAIR
CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND WESTERN HALF OF THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE
PLAINS EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THERE ARE A COUPLE OTHER
BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND AS WELL. DIFFICULT FINDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURE IN THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BEASTLY UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S F OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH 50S F OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE COOLED OFF A TAD
ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING`S SOUNDINGS. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE
INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WON`T CHANGE MUCH.
.AVIATION..STILL ON THE FENCE CONCERNING "TEMPO" FOR TSRA AT DIA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO FIGURE IT OUT IN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN CO. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS LOW PRES RESIDWES
OVER UTAH AND WRN CO. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY ESE LOW LVL FLOW
EAST OF THE MTNS. OVERALL INSTABILITY BASED ON SOUNDINGS SHOWS
CAPES GENERALLY RANGING FM 500-1000 J/KG BY AFTN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE FOOTHILLS.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WAS PRETTY LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
PLAINS ON SAT DUE TO SLIGHT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT COOLING TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
BETTER CHC FOR TSTMS. WITH ESE LOW LVL FLOW AND MDT NLY FLOW SHEAR
PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLD MARGINAL SVR STORM OR TWO.
IN THE MTNS EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN
HOURS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT SO
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 80S OVER NERN CO.
FOR TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE STRENGTHEING SELY LOW LVL FLOW OVER NERN
CO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS NERN CO. THIS
TYPE OF SET UP COULD LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL STORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS FOR
THIS SCENARIO.
LONG TERM...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS
THE PREVAILING IDEA OF COOLER AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER
REMAINS. FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 4 OF THE FORECAST...NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WHILE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT LOWER
LEVELS. ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...BUT THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. STORM MOTIONS OUT OF THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
80S WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO DE-STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME CHANGES ARE STARTING TO BE INDICATED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF
THE FORECAST. FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS
AMPLITUDE ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMING AT MID LEVELS THAT WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK...AND
MAY ALSO DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS NEW
SCENARIO IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY OR MAY NOT COME TO PASS...SO
FOR NOW WILL HANG ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ONLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES. THE GFS MOS IS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THESE
VALUES ARE NOT BEING ACCEPTED AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION...A WEAK CYCLONE WAS WEST OF DIA AS WNDS HAVE BEEN SELY
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP WANTS TO MOVE THIS FEATURE EAST OF
DIA BY 15Z WITH LIGHT NWLY WINDS AND THEN SOUTHWARD BY 18Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NELY. THRU THE AFTN THE RAP MOVES IT OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE WITH A MORE ESE COMPONENT. AS FOR STORMS THE BEST
CHC WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF DIA HOWEVER THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS CAPPED THIS AFTN SO A STORM OR TWO COULD AFFECT THE
AIRPORT BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS . TONIGHT TSTM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SLY AFTER 03Z.
HYDROLOGY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY. UP TO
ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN COULD OCCUR IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES...SO
COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING IF A STORM MOVES ACROSS ANY OF THE
BURN AREAS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1048 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM NRN CALIF/NRN NEV INTO SRN ID. THIS DRIER
AIR SHOULD START FILTERING DOWN INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS DRIER AIR THOUGH...A SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA AND BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM12 IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE
WHILE GFS/EC AND HRRR REALLY ONLY FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE SAN
JUANS IN PARTICULAR. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT AND ADJUST AS
NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW ESTABLISHED NEAR LAS VEGAS AND WILL
EVENTUALLY PARK ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN...KEEPING
OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING DRIER AIR GETTING
ENTRAINED AROUND THE NORTHWEST QUAD OF THE RIDGE...AND SLOWLY
INCHING ITS WAY AROUND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE RIDGE. SUBTLE
DRYING WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS...BRINGING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS
THE WEEK WEARS ON. HOWEVER...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN
THE RIDGE TO GIVE US ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH QPF
VALUES UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HOLDING AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND SOME PRIMING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
A FEW STORMS WORK INTO THE MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER
STAGE...WITH NARROW STREETS OF WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K...BUT THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY TERRAIN DRIVEN AND GUSTY
DURING PEAK HEATING. OUTFLOW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AS THEY DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS.
TEMPS RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE PLUS SIDE OF NORMAL
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF OUR LOWER
VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE BRUSHES NW COLORADO IN THE EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY ENHANCE LATE DAY CONVECTION AND THEN INTRODUCES A DRIER AIR
MASS IN ITS WAKE. LATE EVENING STORMS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ESPECIALLY NORTH. THIS IS BEST HANDLED IN THE GFS. THIS WILL BRING
DIMINISHED LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL DRY LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN A THREAT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. MOST STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
TUESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A
NORTH FLOW OVER THIS FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES NUDGE DOWN A DEGREE
OR TWO. LATE-DAY MAINLY-DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND NW COLORADO...SCATTERED IN SW COLORADO.
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
STORMS AS MOISTURE FIELDS DRY OUT UNDER THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
SOME HINT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAKDOWN A BIT AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK WITH ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS MAY SEND
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...WITH AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLATED
RANGE FOR NOW AND HOPE THIS TREND CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS. SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z NOON MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ON TAP TODAY DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES...KASE AND KEGE MAY SEE VCTS AND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
WILL PUT IN TAFS FOR THOSE SITES. KRIL MAY ALSO SEE A PASSING
STORM SO VCTS FOR THEM LOOKS GOOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREDOMINANT TODAY THOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND UNDER ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SAT JUN 29 2013
A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING HIGHER
TERRAIN. TODAY`S STORMS WILL AGAIN GENERALLY BE HIGH-BASED PRODUCING
ONLY SMALL RAIN CORES BUT MORE WIDESPREAD DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. THEREFORE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE VALID FROM NOON TO
10 PM MDT FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WHERE
FUELS ARE NOT CONSIDERED CRITICALLY DRY.
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER THERE
WILL STILL BE A FEW DIURNAL AND TERRAIN BASED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200>203-207-
290>293.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ482>484-486-
487.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JDC/JOE
LONG TERM...JDC/JOE
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP
SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS ARCHING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN SRN IDAHO. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE SE ALONG THE
MONTANA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED BUILDUPS
FROM MACKAY NE THROUGH LEADORE AND SOUTH ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER.
THE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH EDGING NORTH ACROSS
NEVADA MONDAY AS THE MONSOONAL PUSH SURGES NORTH AROUND THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH (NEVADA/OREGON) RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BLEED OVER INTO THE
CNTRL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. BY TUESDAY...THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL WRAP FULLY AROUND THE HIGH
AND ACROSS SE IDAHO PROVIDING A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IS NOTED
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO LOFT SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO SRN IDAHO FUELING
ONGOING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. SOMETIME THURSDAY...A PAC SHORT-WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO WRN CANADA PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE
PROVINCES SHUNTING THE HIGH SOUTH INTO SRN NEVADA. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN WAFFLING ON THE STRENGTH...DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE INCOMING
WAVE WITH CONCOMITANT SHIFTS IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MENTION OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME
ALTHOUGH REMAINING UNSEASONABLY WARM. HUSTON
&&
.AVIATION...TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. HRRR IS HINTING AT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NAM MOS PUTS
A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT EACH SITE. MUCH LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY THOUGH...SO AM LEANING
MORE TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER. HINSBERGER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE UNTIL
AROUND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE BRINGING POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS SEEM BRING THE
MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. BY WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE FIELD EXPANDS
INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS AS UPPER RIDGING
FLATTENS. AFTER MID-WEEK...WEATHER WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HINSBERGER
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1253 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TODAY TO INCREASE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
I-55 AND ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS AREA TODAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S LOOKS ON TRACK.
568 DM 500 MB LOW NEAR INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY MONDAY/TUE KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND NEXT FEW DAYS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND MID EVENING HOURS UNTIL SUNSET OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1250 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
LARGE 570 DM 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TO
RETROGRADE SW INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY 18Z/1 PM MONDAY AND WEAKEN
A BIT TO 574 DM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM I-55
EAST THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING LASTING LONGEST AT CMI AND DEC. MVFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION WITH PIA LIKELY STAYING DRY MUCH OF
TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AGAIN AFTER
15Z/10 AM MONDAY AND SET UP FURTHER WEST INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY
TOO AS UPPER LEVEL LOW GETS INTO SOUTHERN IL. BREEZY NNE WINDS
10-17 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 17-23 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO
6-10 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 16-20
KTS AFTER 15Z/10 AM MON.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 257 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW AND TROUGH
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL US THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER MAINLY
DIURNAL PCPN OVER IL.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER AIR THIS EVENING DISPLAYS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IN
WITH JET FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO AR TO THE CENTRAL EAST COAST. CORE
OF 500MB COLD AIR OVER IL/IN AT 00Z WHICH WAS THE ALOFT TRIGGER
FOR THE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY THROUGHOUT THE MID MS AND OH
VALLEY REGIONS. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX OVER
NORTHEAST IA AT 00Z ROTATING SOUTH AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN MO TODAY...PULLING THE MAIN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD WITH IT.
EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OF CONVECTION TODAY...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH 1/2 OF CWA. INSTABILITY SIMILAR
TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND 12 AND TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE 46 TO 48 RANGE WITH CAPE ABOUT 1000. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
IN RAPPING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED
THE POPS WITH SOME OF THIS CONVECTION THIS MORNING REACHING
CWA...BEFORE WEAKENING AS PART THE HRRR AND OTHER MESO MODELS.
WITH MO VORT MAX AND UPPER LOW FURTHER SOUTH...BEST AREA FOR LATER
REDEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH...OVER SOUTHERN 1/3 OF
STATE.
MODELS THEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH START OF UPPER LOW THEN
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WITH THAT TREND...THE
UPPER LOW BRINGS THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION BACK WITH
IT...SPREADING INCREASING POPS STARTING ON MONDAY BACK INTO THE CWA
AND THEN OVER ALL THE REGION TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS START
TO DIFFER SOME ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LOW IN THE REGION...INCREASED THE POPS A BIT OVER AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS KEEP THE FILLING UPPER SYSTEM OVER WEST IL
AND JUST WEST OF REGION...CONTINUING THE TREND OF TRIGGERING
DIURNAL PCPN WITH GRADUAL SLOW WARMING OF TEMPS AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINS.
BY THURSDAY THE LOW IS OPENING UP AND THE TROF WEAKENING AND STARTS
TO MOVE OUT TO NORTH. ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH SYSTEM BRINGING IN
MOIST MORE SUMMER TYPE OF AIRMASS FOR FRI AND INTO WEEKEND.
GOETSCH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. FOG BURNED OFF AND SUNSHINE HELPING TO
FORM CUMULUS AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 70S. INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS
BECOME UNSTABLE. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING TODAY BUT NOT QUICKLY. WILL AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING AND FLOOD PROBLEMS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISOLATED. BETTER FORCING IN THE SE WHERE SPC HAS US IN A SEE TEXT.
5 PERCENT CHC OF WIND AND HAIL IN THE SRN HALF OF CWA. NOTHING SO
FAR BUT UL SHORT WAVE OVER SW PA WILL HELP TSTORMS FIRE BY 3 PM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NORTHEAST PA...WHILE OTHER MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOME CENTRAL NY TERMINALS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIMING AS NOTED IN TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
IN THE VALLEYS ESPECIALLY KELM OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON AFTN THROUGH FRI...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND
EARLY MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1145 AM UPDATE...
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE /YET ABOVE ACTION
STAGE/ FOR NORWICH AND SHERBURNE. ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO
UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING
ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR
THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING
ABOVE ACTION STAGES TO MINOR FLOOD POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL POINTS
ESPECIALLY UPPER SUSQUEHANNA BASIN WITHIN A 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW.
DECISION ON POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
138 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE ON
TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVING BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1055 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN STORY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...JUST A BIT SOUTH OF WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY OR
FROM BTV SOUTH AND EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF 1-2.5" OF RAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY (2.41" AT SUTTON VT AND AN INCH IN AND AROUND CHITTENDEN CO).
AMOUNTS LIKE THIS WILL BE CAPABLE OF AGAIN PRODUCING ISOLATED
MINOR FLASH FLOODING. TOYED WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THINKING
IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT EXACTLY THE
SAME AREAS AS YESTERDAY JUST A BIT SOUTH.
SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM VCTY KART-KMPV-K1V4 AND SOUTH AND
EAST LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVIEST SWATHS OF PRECIPITATION. RAP MODEL SHOWS A
NICE AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTH.
TALL NARROW CAPE PROFILES PROGGED TO REACH 500-1500 J/KG N TO S AGAIN
SHOWING HIGHEST JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S.
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13K FT SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCTION IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
PARALLEL SW FLOW ALOFT SO EXPECT SW-NE MOVING CELLS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
MORNING SOUNDING FROM ALY INDICATED PWAT OF 1.4" JUST SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY AND MOVE N THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VALUES UP TO
NEAR 1.80".
LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED IN TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINLY MID 70S MTNS TO L80S WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WL DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET...AS LLVL STABILIZE AND BEST S/W ENERGY LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS THRU 03Z...THEN AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOPING PER SATURATED BL CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
50S COOLER MTN VALLEYS TO M60S CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
WL CONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON
TUES AS BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS
VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING
AS S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200%
ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN
ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL BE
LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH
FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION CHC POPS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LIKELY ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ON MONDAY. WL CARRY THESE LIKELY POPS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR SO ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH GFS/SREF SHOW FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND BEST S/W ENERGY ARRIVING AROUND 00Z...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN VT. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY
WITH LIS AROUND -2C AND CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG. WL MENTION SCHC
TO CHC OF THUNDER IN GRIDS. TUESDAY...INSTABILITY INCREASES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...AS
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IS BETTER...ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY IN PLACE.
TUESDAY COULD BE A VERY BUSY DAY WITH HYDRO PRODUCTS...WITH
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND HYDRO
SECTION BLW...BUT EVENTUALLY ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CRNT INDICATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MID-LATE SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR AND A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEAR HIGHEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHEN REMNANTS
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS REGION...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD (NEAR 2 INCHES)...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED THIS
MONTH AND THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE MAY
RETROGRADE WEST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
ZONAL...WHICH MAY HELP DRY THINGS OUT JUST A BIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE
HUMID. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 80S...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. AFTER 00Z...GENERALLY
LOOKING AT VFR/MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE RES OF THE PERIOD AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND THUS
LOOKING AT VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE THROUGH
12Z...BUT KSLK AND KMPV LOOKING AT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF REDUCTION
TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MAY SEE MVFR/IFR IN SOME FOG/BR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
IN THOSE PLACES THAT SEE RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VT. WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...SOME
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
INCREASE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE... SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV NEEDS 0.37" OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO BREAK THE
ALL-TIME JUNE PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 9.92.
THE 18.30" MAY-JUN TOTAL IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD BESTING THE
13.87" IN 2006.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS/SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1210 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. FOG BURNED OFF AND SUNSHINE HELPING TO
FORM CUMULUS AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 70S. INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS
BECOME UNSTABLE. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING TODAY BUT NOT QUICKLY. WILL AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING AND FLOOD PROBLEMS BUT THESE WILL BE
ISOLATED. BETTER FORCING IN THE SE WHERE SPC HAS US IN A SEE TEXT.
5 PERCENT CHC OF WIND AND HAIL IN THE SRN HALF OF CWA. NOTHING SO
FAR BUT UL SHORT WAVE OVER SW PA WILL HELP TSTORMS FIRE BY 3 PM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OLD TROF OVER THE OH VLY ACTUALLY DIGS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE
WAVY SW FLOW CONTS OVER THE FCST AREA. TODAY WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE
TODAY THAN SAT...ESP AS WEAK UPR WVS PASS THRU. MOISTURE WILL
INCRS AS WELL AS PWATS CREEP UP TO 1.50 INCHES. FIRST WV AND UPR
JET THIS MRNG INCRS THE UPR DIFLUENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES BUT WITH
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY...JUST A AN INCRS OF SHWRS OVER
THE EAST XPCTD. LTR TODAY A SECOND WV WILL INCRS THE UVM OVER THE
WEST...AND WITH BETTER HTG...TRWS SHD DVLP ESP WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SVR AT THIS PT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LIMITED SPEED SHEAR AND CAPES LESS THAN A
1000 J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BCMG CNCRND FOR MON AND TUE AS A STRONG UPR JET DVLPS OVER NRN NEW
ENG AND SE CANADA PUTTING THE FCST IN THE RR OF THE JET AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE CPLD WITH INCRSG DEEP MOISTURE AS THE
FCST AREA AGAIN HOOKS UP WITH THE GULF BRINGING PWATS TO NEAR 2
INCHES. AT THE SFC...NEARLY STATIONARY INVERTED TROF REMAINS OVER
THE CNTR OF THE FCST AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
SCT HEAVY SHWRS OVER THE AREA FOR A 48 HR PD. GIVEN THE UNIFORM
UPR FLOW...WRM CLD TOPPED CONV COULD TRAIN ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES
OR LOCAL MESOSCALE BNDRIES LDG TO ADTNL FLOODING ISSUES.
GUID TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD WITH DAILY HI/S
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1145 AM EDT UPDATE...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BIG PICTURE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE BLOCKING HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE THE MIDATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO RETROGRADE TO THE
CAROLINAS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST WEAKENS. OUR AREA REMAINS IN
THE BUSY WAVE-RIDDLED FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THIS STARTS
WITH VERY MOIST SSW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 2 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY MORE OF A SOUTH-TO-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BY THEN...AVERAGING AROUND AN INCH-AND-A-HALF /HIGHER
SOUTH/. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST
/LIKELY RANGE/ THURSDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOWS DUE TO
MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS. WITH WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GENERALLY
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
VERY WET GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE
REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
DENSE FOG AND A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FROM 17 TO 21Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT PREVAIL IN TAF. AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION...FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU...VFR WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EACH
DAY...WITH SHRA/TSRA IN THE VICINITY. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RESTRICTIONS MAY COME MON/MON NGT. OTHER DAYS AFTN SHRA AND EARLY
MORNING FOG CAUSING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1145 AM UPDATE...
THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING HYDROLOGY ISSUES FROM THE RECENT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PROBLEMS GREATEST FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER IN
UTICA...WHICH CRESTED AROUND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW FALL. IT IS CURRENTLY ON ITS WAY TO MINOR
FLOOD CATEGORY FROM MODERATE...AS PER STATEMENTS HANDLED VIA NWS
ALBANY. CHENANGO RIVER NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE /YET ABOVE ACTION
STAGE/ FOR NORWICH AND SHERBURNE. ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO
UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT. SUSQUEHANNA IN CONKLIN HAS BEEN HOVERING
ABOUT A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE...YET IS STILL FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE RENEWED RISES TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NEW RAINFALL SO FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR
THAT FORECAST POINT. RFC FORECASTS FOR OTHER POINTS SUGGESTING
ABOVE ACTION STAGES TO MINOR FLOOD POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL POINTS
ESPECIALLY UPPER SUSQUEHANNA BASIN WITHIN A 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW.
DECISION ON POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE MADE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION... AND
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...
WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK... WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
OVERALL: OUR PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS OR BANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48-60
HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WE ARE CERTAIN
TO SEE POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES LOCALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE SLOW-MOVING AND/OR REPEATED STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT: WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN
CONSTANTLY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME... THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS (AND LIKELY LONGER) OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE... INCLUDING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE
SHARPENING UPPER JET FROM ERN TN/KY THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS... AND
REPEATED SHOTS OF DPVA AS PERTURBATIONS RIDE FROM THE NE GULF UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IN PARTICULAR... BOTH
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED-CONVECTION MODELS LATCH ONTO
THE MID LEVEL MCV OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD WHILE
DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SSW STEERING FLOW NORTHWARD TOWARD NC TONIGHT. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE (NOTED ON MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
PLOTS) NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS... MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY HOLDS
OVER CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE STAYING IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE BOTH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT... AND RISING TO 800-1600 ON MONDAY. (IN
THE NEAR TERM... MESOANALYSES SHOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-7.5 C/KM... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM... AND MLCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS.) DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VERY HIGH PW
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING IN DIRECTLY FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS... AS THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL
DEPTH OVER 4 KM) WILL ENCOURAGE WARM RAIN PROCESSES... AND THE
ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ARE AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS... EVEN IF IT ONLY RAINS
HEAVILY FOR 15-30 MINUTES IN ANY GIVEN SPOT... RAPID RAIN RATES ARE
LIKELY AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN COULD EASILY FALL... LEADING TO
RAPID RUNOFF AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT ON ANY STREETS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION... STORMS
MAY HOLD IN THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED TIME AS CELLS MAY TEND TO
PROPAGATE BACK TO THE SW... AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP RUNS
SHOWING LOWERING MBE VELOCITIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDS BECOME
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO
70-90% CHANCE EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AS BOTH STORM-SCALE AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITHIN A VOLATILE AND VERY WET COLUMN APPEAR INEVITABLE...
AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COUPLE OF RELATIVE LULLS WITH ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... IT IS DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN WHEN SUCH A LULL MIGHT OCCUR. AND EVEN DURING
TIMES OF LOWER STORM COVERAGE... INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD STILL DROP
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
CLOUDS/TEMPS: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND... AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN
WITH EITHER STRATUS AT NIGHT OR CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. THIS... IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEADY BREEZE FROM THE SSE OR SOUTH... SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH WARM NIGHTS (LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S) AND WARM HUMID DAYS (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S). -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...
CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A DEEP...MOISTURE SOUTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHIFTS ONLY SLOWLY
WESTWARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO
EXPAND. PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES...IF NOT INCREASE ABOVE 2
INCHES ON TUESDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALSO SHIFTS WESTWARD.
MODELS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A WAVE PASSING MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCE PRECIP...BUT GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE
OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THIS PATTERN...ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF QPF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEEP LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH...SO SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CARRIED OUT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AND MAY POSSIBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY IN SOME AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY /SHEAR
DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT. WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TUESDAY...TAILING OFF TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE MAY
SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NC. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS NC
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....SHIFTING THE PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NC ON WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THUS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...
PERIODIC ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
NC... WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... AND
LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT. EARLIER SUB-VFR CIGS HAVE LARGELY LIFTED BUT
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z AT ALL CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES. OTHERWISE... SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE ALREADY INCREASING IN NUMBER OVER CENTRAL NC... AND IF
THESE PASS NEAR ANY TAF SITE THEY WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS. GSO AND FAY HAVE THE MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT OF SEEING A
STORM IN THEIR AREAS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE OF STORMS ANYWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL TRACK NEAR TAF SITES IS TOUGH TO
RESOLVE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE... CIGS AFTER 20Z WILL BE MOSTLY
VFR... BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT... MUCH
LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS... AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE AT RDU/GSO/INT. THESE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AFTER 14Z MONDAY... HOWEVER THE RISK
OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MONDAY... SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING.
BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND WILL NOT NECESSARILY
BE RESTRICTED TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS... WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WELL. WE SHOULD
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
DRIER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
STARTS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-
089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION... AND
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...
WILL BRING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK... WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
OVERALL: OUR PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS OR BANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48-60
HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WE ARE CERTAIN
TO SEE POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES LOCALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE SLOW-MOVING AND/OR REPEATED STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT: WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN
CONSTANTLY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME... THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS (AND LIKELY LONGER) OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE... INCLUDING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE
SHARPENING UPPER JET FROM ERN TN/KY THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS... AND
REPEATED SHOTS OF DPVA AS PERTURBATIONS RIDE FROM THE NE GULF UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. IN PARTICULAR... BOTH
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED-CONVECTION MODELS LATCH ONTO
THE MID LEVEL MCV OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND BRING IT NORTHWARD WHILE
DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SSW STEERING FLOW NORTHWARD TOWARD NC TONIGHT. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE (NOTED ON MODEL DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
PLOTS) NOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS... MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY HOLDS
OVER CENTRAL NC WITH MLCAPE STAYING IN THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE BOTH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT... AND RISING TO 800-1600 ON MONDAY. (IN
THE NEAR TERM... MESOANALYSES SHOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-7.5 C/KM... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM... AND MLCAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS.) DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VERY HIGH PW
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING IN DIRECTLY FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS... AS THE DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL
DEPTH OVER 4 KM) WILL ENCOURAGE WARM RAIN PROCESSES... AND THE
ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ARE AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS... EVEN IF IT ONLY RAINS
HEAVILY FOR 15-30 MINUTES IN ANY GIVEN SPOT... RAPID RAIN RATES ARE
LIKELY AND A QUICK INCH OF RAIN COULD EASILY FALL... LEADING TO
RAPID RUNOFF AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT ON ANY STREETS AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION... STORMS
MAY HOLD IN THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED TIME AS CELLS MAY TEND TO
PROPAGATE BACK TO THE SW... AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RAP RUNS
SHOWING LOWERING MBE VELOCITIES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDS BECOME
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO
70-90% CHANCE EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AS BOTH STORM-SCALE AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITHIN A VOLATILE AND VERY WET COLUMN APPEAR INEVITABLE...
AND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A COUPLE OF RELATIVE LULLS WITH ONLY SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... IT IS DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN WHEN SUCH A LULL MIGHT OCCUR. AND EVEN DURING
TIMES OF LOWER STORM COVERAGE... INDIVIDUAL CELLS COULD STILL DROP
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
CLOUDS/TEMPS: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND... AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN
WITH EITHER STRATUS AT NIGHT OR CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. THIS... IN
CONJUCTION WITH THE STEADY BREEZE FROM THE SSE OR SOUTH... SHOULD
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH WARM NIGHTS (LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S) AND WARM HUMID DAYS (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S). -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL IMPEDE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY STORM
SYSTEMS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD. THUS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO A POSITION
OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS LOW AND THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SLY FLOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS FLOW WILL ORIGINATE OVER THE MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHERN GULF WHERE PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 2.25-2.4 INCH
RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS WILL SERVE AS A
LAUNCHING PAD FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY OR WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. THUS...EXPECT ABNORMALLY HIGH POPS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS DEEP SLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN CONVECTION TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. WHILE THE NEED FOR A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEEDS TO
BE CONSIDERED...DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIME AND LOCATION DUE TO THE
LACK OF A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLE. BEST ROUTE AT THIS
TIME IS TO HIGHLIGHT FLOODING THREAT IN HWO.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIMIT NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP TREND. WHILE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MUGGY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S WILL BE COMMON (VERSUS NORMAL UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING IN THE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS MAIN MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS WESTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO ATLANTIC HIGH BUILDING WESTWARD. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH HEATING WILL CAUSE ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AS
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR AND BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE MID-UPPER
80S....RISING INTO THE THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...
PERIODIC ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
NC... WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... AND
LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT. EARLIER SUB-VFR CIGS HAVE LARGELY LIFTED BUT
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z AT ALL CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES. OTHERWISE... SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE ALREADY INCREASING IN NUMBER OVER CENTRAL NC... AND IF
THESE PASS NEAR ANY TAF SITE THEY WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS. GSO AND FAY HAVE THE MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT OF SEEING A
STORM IN THEIR AREAS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE OF STORMS ANYWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL TRACK NEAR TAF SITES IS TOUGH TO
RESOLVE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE... CIGS AFTER 20Z WILL BE MOSTLY
VFR... BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT... MUCH
LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS... AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE AT RDU/GSO/INT. THESE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AFTER 14Z MONDAY... HOWEVER THE RISK
OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MONDAY... SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... WITH
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING.
BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND WILL NOT NECESSARILY
BE RESTRICTED TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS... WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AS WELL. WE SHOULD
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
DRIER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
STARTS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-
089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
102 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
ONLY CHANGES TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WERE TO BUMP UP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S AROUND KJMS. ALSO RAISED SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST WITH A MORE EXTENSIVE CU FIELD THAN EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER. EARLIER CONVECTION BETWEEN MINOT AND BISMARCK HAS
DISSIPATED. CURRENTLY CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH
DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP HERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NAM 12 UTC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES FROM
4-700J/KG. UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AND WARM SO CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CURRENT POPS IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THIS UPDATE EXPANDED ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS A BIT NORTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR ONGOING SHOWERS ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MINOT AND
BISMARCK. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND A RESULTANT NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA HAVE BEEN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND OR EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. THERE WILL BE SHIFT TO MOVE THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z BEFORE ENDING THEM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AND HENCE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MORE SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80F WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE LONG TERM IS ON LOCATION OF THE JET
STREAM. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG 00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES
THAT THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ONLY BRIEFLY
PHASE WITH THE ALASKAN UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS WEEK. SUBSEQUENT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO WESTERN
CANADA IS LESS EXTREME. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES UNTIL FRIDAY.
THEN...A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE REASON THE JET LOCATION IS SO IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN
CONSIDERABLY REDUCED THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS OF FORECAST UPDATES...SINCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS
DIFFICULT TO RELEASE DURING THE SUMMER WITHOUT AT LEAST SOME
MIDDLE LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT.
THE FORECAST NOW DELAYS PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DIRECTS THE JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS VERY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER BASED ON VERY LARGE 00 UTC MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SPREAD...BUT IT APPEARS A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18 UTC MONDAY. SCATTERED CU FIELD 4-7KFT
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
EASTERN CWA WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FAR WEST. AFTER LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
ON MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE
DRY FORECAST AS HI-RES MODELS PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO QPF OVER THE
CWFA. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 6 AND 7
C/KM...LIMITING ANY SUPPORT OF LIFTING IN THE MID LEVELS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE UPDATE THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK. THE ONLY QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WILL SEE ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HAVE OCCURRED THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST AND WATCH CU
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND ADD POPS IF WARRANTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE CWFA PULLING CLOUDS WITH
IT. MUCH OF THIS UPDATE THEN DEALS WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THE
MORNING & AFTERNOON. IR AND WV SHOW PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST. EXPECT THIS TO
BE PREDOMINANTLY THIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CHALLENGE REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND LOW
END RISK OF TSRA. 06Z MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF AMOUNT OF MU-CAPE
AND SHOWALTERS FROM 00Z RUNS. YET SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS
FOR ISOLD MOIST CONVECTION AS 700 TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER THAN
SATURDAY. IF LOW LEVEL FORCING BECOMES ORGANIZED LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO ADD POPS.
PATCHES OF BR CONTINUE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA AND THIS SHOULD
LIFT BY 14Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER WAVE AT 08Z WAS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CWFA...WITH THE CURL CENTERED NEAR BWP. LINGERING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 35KTS SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE
CWFA BY MID MORNING LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY FORENOON. LOCAL
VERIFICATION SUGGESTS THE FGFBLEND IS BEST BET IN NEAR TERM WHICH
MAKES AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SATURDAYS. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FA SO HAVE PUT SOME PATCHY FG
IN THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES AFTERNOON CU AND POSSIBLE ISOLD -TSRA.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE PRECIPITATION FREE AND AM LEANING TO KEEP IT
THAT WAY THOUGH THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ARGUE FOR NO RAIN. HOWEVER...LAPS AND
SHORT TERM MODELS DO LAY A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTH/SOUTH TROUGH THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. IT IS ALSO COOLER AT 700 MB TODAY THAN SATURDAY
WHEN THERE WAS ISOLD TSRA. WEAK BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED IN NARROW
BAND OF MU-CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND SHOWALTERS BELOW ZERO IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. NAM12 AND GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE YET ECMWF AND GEM
ALSO SHOW THIS. HRRR DOES DEVELOP ECHOES AFTER 17Z SO MAY THROW
ISOLD TSRA IN AT LAST MINUTE.
IN ANY EVENT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILD IN. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FEEL LOWS WILL
STAY CLOSER TO 60 MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CONIFERS DUE TO RECENT
RAINS AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST TOP-SOILS. HAVE LEANED ON
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSMOS
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT HIGH DRIFTS OVER AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
FGFBLEND AND BCCONSALL FOR MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS.
TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WARMING TREND. DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
GENERATES SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ARGUE FOR ANOTHER 2F
TO 4F INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
AT MIDWEEK... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NEWD FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SINKS SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
FOR WED AND THU. BY FRI AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CANADA
CAUSING THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY ZONAL. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WED/THU WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN THE FCST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FRI NITE THROUGH SAT NITE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 20C. WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER WAVE APPROACHING BY THE WEEKEND...A COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR AS A
COOLER AIRMASS IN USHERED IN BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. SCATTERED AREAS OF
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO BE ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
RUNOFF CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RED RIVER AT
HALSTAD IS NEAR CREST AT AROUND 27 FT...WITH FALLING STAGES
CONTINUING TO THE SOUTH AT FARGO. GRADUAL RISES WITHIN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AT EAST GRAND FORKS AND AT OSLO FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FLOOD WARNING ON THE SHEYENNE RIVER AT WEST
FARGO HAS BEEN CANCELED. MOST AREA TRIBUTARIES ARE SEEING FALLING
LEVELS WITH RUNOFF PROGRESSING INTO THE MAINSTEM RED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...BRAMER
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
412 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...INCREASINGLY HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MY EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES AS GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO LINE FOR A DEEPENING PLUME OF
VERY TROPICAL AIR TO CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. LARGE SCALE
FORCING SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A HEAVY RAIN SET UP WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS LOW
SETTLES SOUTH...THE HEIGHTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FCST TO
RISE WITH THE RESURGENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...TIGHTENING THE
UPPER GRADIENT AND INTENSIFYING THE LARGE UPPER JET ENTRANCE
REGION FROM KY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SREF AND GEFS BOTH BRING A PWAT ANOMALY OF 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. BOTH SHOW AT LEAST A 30-50%
LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS...WITH THE SREF EVEN SHOWING AN AREA OF 4 INCHES OR MORE
POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS...HAVE OPTED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AREAS...HOLDING OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
THIS COULD EVEN NEED TO BE EXPANDED WEST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY FUNNELS THE BEST MOISTURE AND
FORCING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE EVENING...THE RADAR IS BEGINNING TO
GET ACTIVE WITH WHAT WE HAVE SEEN NOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAP ANAL SHOWS CAPES EXCEEDING
2000J...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN MEAGER SO AS YET STORMS
ARE NOT ATTAINING ANY GREAT HEIGHT OR ORGANIZATION. BUT AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TO HEAT UP...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR LARGE HAL
REPORT.
AS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AGAIN WITH EASTERN AREAS SEEING THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT WILL BE A WARM MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY LOOKS WET ONCE AGAIN WITH THE STAGNANT UPPER TROF AND LOW
LEVEL FRONT HANGING OVER THE AREA HELPING SUPPORT A CONTINUATION
OF THE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS.
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...BUT ACTUALLY ONLY NEAR
OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A RETROGRESSION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY UPR TROF/WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH DAILY POPS STARTING FAIRLY HIGH...IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY INTO MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
DAILY MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DAILY MINS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH DEWPOINTS KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO
FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF MID AFTERNOON HAVING FINALLY BURNED OFF THE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/HAZE. ALL IN TIME FOR THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP. SITES WILL STAY VFR
UNLESS A STORM WANDERS NEARBY CAUSING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT THE
DEEP MOIST FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY RIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATER TONIGHT WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME FOG...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THIS WILL
LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND LIFT ONLY SLOWLY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING MVFR FOR MUCH OF NOT ALL
OF THE DAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE
A RETURN TO A MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN LATER IN
THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR...BUT STILL WITH AREAS OF LOWER
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ042-051>053-057>059-065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
234 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
WARM...INCREASINGLY HUMID...AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MY EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES AS GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO LINE FOR A DEEPENING PLUME OF
VERY TROPICAL AIR TO CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. LARGE SCALE
FORCING SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A HEAVY RAIN SET UP WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS LOW
SETTLES SOUTH...THE HEIGHTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FCST TO
RISE WITH THE RESURGENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...TIGHTENING THE
UPPER GRADIENT AND INTENSIFYING THE LARGE UPPER JET ENTRANCE
REGION FROM KY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SREF AND GEFS BOTH BRING A PWAT ANOMALY OF 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. BOTH SHOW AT LEAST A 30-50%
LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS...WITH THE SREF EVEN SHOWING AN AREA OF 4 INCHES OR MORE
POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS...HAVE OPTED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AREAS...HOLDING OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
THIS COULD EVEN NEED TO BE EXPANDED WEST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY FUNNELS THE BEST MOISTURE AND
FORCING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE EVENING...THE RADAR IS BEGINNING TO
GET ACTIVE WITH WHAT WE HAVE SEEN NOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAP ANAL SHOWS CAPES EXCEEDING
2000J...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN MEAGER SO AS YET STORMS
ARE NOT ATTAINING ANY GREAT HEIGHT OR ORGANIZATION. BUT AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TO HEAT UP...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR LARGE HAL
REPORT.
AS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AGAIN WITH EASTERN AREAS SEEING THE
BEST CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT WILL BE A WARM MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS AVERAGING 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY LOOKS WET ONCE AGAIN WITH THE STAGNANT UPPER TROF AND LOW
LEVEL FRONT HANGING OVER THE AREA HELPING SUPPORT A CONTINUATION
OF THE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...BUT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS.
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...BUT ACTUALLY ONLY NEAR
OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WORK WESTWARD
BY LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CUT DOWN THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
HARD TO PINPOINT AMTS AND TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTION
IN HWO...AND NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT.
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
MAIN CHANGE TO PACKAGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME...AND TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL SITES ARE VFR AS OF MID AFTERNOON HAVING FINALLY BURNED OFF THE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/HAZE. ALL IN TIME FOR THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP. SITES WILL STAY VFR
UNLESS A STORM WANDERS NEARBY CAUSING LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT THE
DEEP MOIST FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY RIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATER TONIGHT WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME FOG...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THIS WILL
LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND LIFT ONLY SLOWLY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING MVFR FOR MUCH OF NOT ALL
OF THE DAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE
A RETURN TO A MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN LATER IN
THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI...GENERALLY VFR...BUT STILL WITH AREAS OF LOWER
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ042-051>053-057>059-065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN CENTRAL SD THIS
MORNING DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THE WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT RESPONSIBLE
FOR THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH MORE SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDER TO CONTINUE/DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER WAVE HEADS SOUTH. ADDED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE
CENTRAL SD FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH IF MORE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AND INCREASE POPS. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE
LATEST NAM ALSO SHOW SOME SPOTTY QPF ACROSS CENTRAL SD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK GOOD.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WEAK VORT MAX IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS A FEW
ISO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH ONE HAVING CROSSED THE BORDER INTO
SD/MCPHERSON COUNTY WITH SOME 30-40 DBZ RETURNS. HAVE UPDATED THE
SHORT TERM POP GRIDS TO REFLECT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS LIKELY
FROM THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT NOW.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A JET STREAK CROSSING THE REGION AS WELL.
MODELS SHOW THIS JET MAX MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A STRUNG OUT AREA OF VORTICITY WITH VERY
WEAK OMEGA THAT EXTENDS FURTHER NORTH BACK INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
BUT WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL PROMOTE VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON IS A BIT IN QUESTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. ASIDE FROM WHATEVER VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
STILL A BIT OUT OF THE ORDINARY...BUT WILL BE SEEING UPPER LEVEL
STEERING FLOW COMING JUST ABOUT STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR
PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF NORTH AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST
WILL BE CRASHING DOWN WHILE MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. THE TRANSITION TO WESTERLIES BY THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
MORE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BACK TO THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND SEVERAL NIGHTS OF LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION FROM CANADA. ALLBLEND POPS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF NOW
BASICALLY KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND CLIMO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EVEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
DAYTIME HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH
IN THE KPIR AND KMBG TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SERR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
147 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER SHORT TERM UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPS/POPS
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION ARE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS MIDDLE
SECTION OF THE CWA...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 80S. SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE NOTED OUT WEST...AND WE COULD SEE A QUICK
WARM UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON...THE OTHER WARM AREA IS FAR
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM CONVECTION...AND WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNING.
PRETTY INCREDIBLE TO CONSIDER YESTERDAYS RECORD JUNE MAX
TEMP...AND THEN REALIZE THAT TODAYS MAX WONT BE TOO MUCH WARMER
THAN A RECORD LOW MAX VALUE (81). OUR MAX T TODAY WILL BE AT LEAST
84 THOUGH...SO NO RECORD BREAKING.
AS FAR AS POPS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION REALLY STARTING TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE DROPPED POPS TO 30 OR BELOW FOR
MOST EVERYONE...EXCEPT A 40 LEFT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
SHOWERS HAVENT DIMINISHED TOO MUCH YET. WITH COOL TEMPS...CIN
VALUES JUST TOO HIGH THIS AFTERNOON TO SUSTAIN MUCH. THINKING THAT
WE WONT SEE MUCH REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT...THOUGH WONT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS LEADING TO ISSUES WITH WINDS FOR MOST ALL TAF SITES.
WILL START THE PERIOD WITH A N WIND FOR ALI AND CRP...ALTHOUGH
WILL EXPECT WINDS TO EVENTUALLY COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VCT SHOULD BE MAINLY DONE WITH PRECIP
TODAY...THOUGH A SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE. OTHER SITES WILL HAVE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH WILL ONLY
BE A WIND SHIFT WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION...NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING POST-MCS. FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...WHILE MORE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING CENTRAL TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THINGS WELL
THIS MORNING...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD WEAKEN
THE STUFF CURRENTLY IN EWX FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES DOWN...BUT
THAT JUST DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THE TREND AT THIS TIME. THUS HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADJUST AFTERNOON POPS DOWN THE ROAD
IF THIS STUFF DOES INDEED HOLD TOGETHER. HRRR MODEL ALSO INDICATES
YET ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL PLAY THE WAITING GAME FOR A LITTLE WHILE AND SEE
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THAT.
THE OTHER BIG CHALLENGE IS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRST ROUND OF STORMS REALLY KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN THROUGH THE
COASTAL BEND...CRP STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 70S AT 10AM...OTHER
SITES REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THESE COMPLEXES...BUT NOT SURE IT`S GOING TO BE
ENOUGH TO GET OUR TEMPS TOO FAR INTO THE 90S FOR MANY OF US. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST WITH SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS CONVECTION. WILL
PROBABLY NEED ANOTHER TEMP UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING ONCE WE SEE
HOW COASTAL BEND TEMPS ARE RECOVERING FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.
AVIATION...FIRST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHRAS AND TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. ALI/CRP TAFS WILL
BE IMPACTED THROUGH 15Z AND LRD THROUGH 14Z. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS
AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ATTENTION TURNS TO SECOND DISTURBANCE
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION...POSSIBLY IMPACTING SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EXACT
TIMING HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS IN THE LRD/ALI/CRP TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND
FOLLOWED WITH A BLEND OF THE HI RESOLUTION HRRR/NMM THROUGH
18Z...WITH SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FORECAST. THIS AFTERNOON...HI
RESOLUTION AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SECOND UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. MOISTURE POOL OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE POOLED OVER THE AREA...AND
ANY FORCING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OR BOUNDARIES WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS TODAY COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY TODAY
WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK THAT WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...AND IN A FEW SPOTS (LRD) UNDERCUT MOS.
DRIER AIR WORKS ITO THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIPPING INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP A LOW POP ALONG AND WEST OF U.S.
281 MONDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS RESIDES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...POTENT UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS PROGD TO SHIFT W MONDAY NIGHT/TUE.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S ACROSS THE FAR W CWA MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT THE MODELS PROG
TO TRACK SWD ACROSS MEX. BY TUE THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE PROGD
TO BE FARTHER AWAY FROM S TX WITH THE TROF AXIS DRAPED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE TX COAST. THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE
NE CWA AND COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT/WED THEREFORE KEPT A SILENT 10
POP IN PLACE. MOISTURE IS PROGD TO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THU WITH
FRI BEING A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS GULF MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS S TX.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EASTERLY WAVE SHIFT NWD FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TOWARD S TX
WITH PWATS PROGD TO BE BETWEEN 2-2.5 INCHES. KEPT THE 20-30 POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LOW REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS PROGS THIS UPPER LOW TO BE A WAVE MVG IN
FROM THE E WHILE THE ECMWF PROGS THE UPPER LOW TO BE THE SAME LOW
CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT BEING CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM. EITHER
WAY...BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY KEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LOWS. WINDS ARE A BIT TRICKY THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A WEAK BDRY MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
WINDS VARYING FROM SE TO NE. WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE S
AND SE BY MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 100 73 95 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 70 99 68 94 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 99 75 98 73 / 20 20 20 10 10
ALICE 73 100 71 97 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 78 95 74 91 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 98 69 96 69 / 20 20 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 75 101 72 97 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 93 76 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS LEADING TO ISSUES WITH WINDS FOR MOST ALL TAF SITES.
WILL START THE PERIOD WITH A N WIND FOR ALI AND CRP...ALTHOUGH
WILL EXPECT WINDS TO EVENTUALLY COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VCT SHOULD BE MAINLY DONE WITH PRECIP
TODAY...THOUGH A SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE. OTHER SITES WILL HAVE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH WILL ONLY
BE A WIND SHIFT WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION...NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING POST-MCS. FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...WHILE MORE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING CENTRAL TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THINGS WELL
THIS MORNING...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD WEAKEN
THE STUFF CURRENTLY IN EWX FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES DOWN...BUT
THAT JUST DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THE TREND AT THIS TIME. THUS HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADJUST AFTERNOON POPS DOWN THE ROAD
IF THIS STUFF DOES INDEED HOLD TOGETHER. HRRR MODEL ALSO INDICATES
YET ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL PLAY THE WAITING GAME FOR A LITTLE WHILE AND SEE
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THAT.
THE OTHER BIG CHALLENGE IS IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRST ROUND OF STORMS REALLY KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN THROUGH THE
COASTAL BEND...CRP STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 70S AT 10AM...OTHER
SITES REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THESE COMPLEXES...BUT NOT SURE IT`S GOING TO BE
ENOUGH TO GET OUR TEMPS TOO FAR INTO THE 90S FOR MANY OF US. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST WITH SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS CONVECTION. WILL
PROBABLY NEED ANOTHER TEMP UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING ONCE WE SEE
HOW COASTAL BEND TEMPS ARE RECOVERING FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.
AVIATION...FIRST MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHRAS AND TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. ALI/CRP TAFS WILL
BE IMPACTED THROUGH 15Z AND LRD THROUGH 14Z. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS
AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ATTENTION TURNS TO SECOND DISTURBANCE
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION...POSSIBLY IMPACTING SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EXACT
TIMING HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS IN THE LRD/ALI/CRP TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
IS APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND
FOLLOWED WITH A BLEND OF THE HI RESOLUTION HRRR/NMM THROUGH
18Z...WITH SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FORECAST. THIS AFTERNOON...HI
RESOLUTION AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SECOND UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. MOISTURE POOL OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE POOLED OVER THE AREA...AND
ANY FORCING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OR BOUNDARIES WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS TODAY COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY TODAY
WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK THAT WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...AND IN A FEW SPOTS (LRD) UNDERCUT MOS.
DRIER AIR WORKS ITO THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIPPING INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP A LOW POP ALONG AND WEST OF U.S.
281 MONDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS RESIDES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...POTENT UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS PROGD TO SHIFT W MONDAY NIGHT/TUE.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA`S ACROSS THE FAR W CWA MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT THE MODELS PROG
TO TRACK SWD ACROSS MEX. BY TUE THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE PROGD
TO BE FARTHER AWAY FROM S TX WITH THE TROF AXIS DRAPED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE TX COAST. THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE
NE CWA AND COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT/WED THEREFORE KEPT A SILENT 10
POP IN PLACE. MOISTURE IS PROGD TO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THU WITH
FRI BEING A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS GULF MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS S TX.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EASTERLY WAVE SHIFT NWD FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TOWARD S TX
WITH PWATS PROGD TO BE BETWEEN 2-2.5 INCHES. KEPT THE 20-30 POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LOW REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS PROGS THIS UPPER LOW TO BE A WAVE MVG IN
FROM THE E WHILE THE ECMWF PROGS THE UPPER LOW TO BE THE SAME LOW
CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT BEING CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM. EITHER
WAY...BOTH MODELS SHOW PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY KEPT CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LOWS. WINDS ARE A BIT TRICKY THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A WEAK BDRY MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
WINDS VARYING FROM SE TO NE. WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE S
AND SE BY MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 100 73 95 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 70 99 68 94 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 99 75 98 73 / 20 20 20 10 10
ALICE 73 100 71 97 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 78 95 74 91 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 98 69 96 69 / 20 20 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 75 101 72 97 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 93 76 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1241 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 5000FT AT KHBV
TO NEAR 10000FT AT KAPY. EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
MORNING MCS LINGERS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
MON MORNING AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION
DIMINISHING ACROSS CWA LATE THIS MORNING WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH AS WELL AS WEST OF THE CWA. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC13 MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V STRUCTURE
ACROSS THE MID PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS THE NORTH. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THE POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAVE ALREADY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER BASED ON THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RACING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THAT IS MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS RIGHT NOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AS
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...AND THEREFORE THE TAFS HAVE
BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT THIS. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...AND INCLUDE IT AS NECESSARY AS SOON AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF IT INCREASES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND ARE RAPIDLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO THE BRO CWFA. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE
TO THE ZONE FORECAST...COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. NO OTHER FORECAST CHANGES MADE BEYOND
TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS REGARDING
INITIAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AMENDED TAFS MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 22 KNOTS. IF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD TOGETHER...INCREASED CLOUDINESS
WITH PRECIPITATION MAY VERY WELL HAVE TO BE INSERTED INTO THE TAFS
SOMETIME DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT TAFS IS HIGH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND LOW
BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MUCH MORE INTERESTING WEATHER
SCENARIO EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH EMBEDDED
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND A 500 MB CLOSED
LOW CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
MEXICO AND TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A RAPIDLY MOISTENING
ATMOSPHERE AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE BRO CWFA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...APPEARS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
500 MB TROUGH WILL INITIATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE
CRP CWFA TODAY THAT MAY PUSH INTO THE BRO CWFA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS A GENERAL RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SO...AFTER TALKING WITH SPC AND WFO CRP
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAVE DECIDED TO PLACE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE ODDS THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THAT
WORDING OUT OF THE MAIN FORECAST...BUT INDICATE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND WILL HAVE THE
INCOMING SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION TODAY AND UPGRADE TO SEVERE
WORDING IF NEEDED. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR MONDAY...
BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE GENEROUS...AS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH MAY PUMP SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE BRO CWFA...STIFLING PRECIP
TOMORROW POSSIBLY. AFTER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER DAY OF HADES LEVEL HIGH TEMPS
ARE LIKELY...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED ON MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY AND NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS.
THANKS TO STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI PERSONNEL
FOR PRECIPITATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL COORDINATION FOR TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WEST WILL BE COUNTERBALANCED BY A LOW OVER THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
ROUGHLY FROM THE NORTH GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONAL
RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY...LATE IN THE PERIOD...
BUILD EAST AND SQUEEZE THE TROUGH OUT OF EXISTENCE. IN THE MEAN
TIME HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE RISE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. INITIALLY...A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CWA MONDAY WITH MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND TO THE
SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THE LOWER VALLEY...INCLUDING ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE...COULD SEE SOME RAIN AS A RESULT. BY MID WEEK THE
LOW CENTER WILL SHIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY NW...AND THE COMBINATION OF
TROUGHING SOUTH OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WEST GULF...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION PUMPING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS OVER THE WEST GULF. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT
AS CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE GULF DURING THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM BUT TEMPERED WITH
PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE NOTED MORE ALONG THE
COAST AND THE LOWER VALLEY...WITH LESS SIGNIFICANCE INLAND. THE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL FILL LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT
BETTER DEFINED WEAKNESS WILL SET UP IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND
NORTH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 19 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KTS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 4
FT WITH A PERIOD OF 5 S AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...
FEATURING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS...ARE EXPECTED THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL START OUT
RELATIVELY LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT
BRIEFLY TO NORTH WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUES NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR OVERPOWERS THE SITUATION
AND PUSHES OUT INTO THE GULF. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOW
SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE
AROUND MID WEEK...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
WEST GULF WITH A WEAKNESS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COMPOUNDING
THINGS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL INITIALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA
BUT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE
MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS...POSSIBLY EXPANDING ASHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SYNOPTICALLY HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT
WITH LOW SEAS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
61/53/59/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1125 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION
DIMINISHING ACROSS CWA LATE THIS MORNING WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTH AS WELL AS WEST OF THE CWA. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC13 MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V STRUCTURE
ACROSS THE MID PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS THE NORTH. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THE POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAVE ALREADY LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER BASED ON THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RACING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THAT IS MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS RIGHT NOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AS
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...AND THEREFORE THE TAFS HAVE
BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT THIS. WILL HOLD OFF INCLUDING CONVECTION
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...AND INCLUDE IT AS NECESSARY AS SOON AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF IT INCREASES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND ARE RAPIDLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO THE BRO CWFA. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE
TO THE ZONE FORECAST...COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. NO OTHER FORECAST CHANGES MADE BEYOND
TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS REGARDING
INITIAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AMENDED TAFS MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 22 KNOTS. IF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD TOGETHER...INCREASED CLOUDINESS
WITH PRECIPITATION MAY VERY WELL HAVE TO BE INSERTED INTO THE TAFS
SOMETIME DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT TAFS IS HIGH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND LOW
BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MUCH MORE INTERESTING WEATHER
SCENARIO EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH EMBEDDED
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND A 500 MB CLOSED
LOW CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
MEXICO AND TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A RAPIDLY MOISTENING
ATMOSPHERE AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE BRO CWFA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...APPEARS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
500 MB TROUGH WILL INITIATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE
CRP CWFA TODAY THAT MAY PUSH INTO THE BRO CWFA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS A GENERAL RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SO...AFTER TALKING WITH SPC AND WFO CRP
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAVE DECIDED TO PLACE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE ODDS THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THAT
WORDING OUT OF THE MAIN FORECAST...BUT INDICATE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND WILL HAVE THE
INCOMING SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION TODAY AND UPGRADE TO SEVERE
WORDING IF NEEDED. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR MONDAY...
BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE GENEROUS...AS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH MAY PUMP SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE BRO CWFA...STIFLING PRECIP
TOMORROW POSSIBLY. AFTER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER DAY OF HADES LEVEL HIGH TEMPS
ARE LIKELY...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED ON MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY AND NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS.
THANKS TO STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI PERSONNEL
FOR PRECIPITATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL COORDINATION FOR TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WEST WILL BE COUNTERBALANCED BY A LOW OVER THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
ROUGHLY FROM THE NORTH GULF UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONAL
RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY...LATE IN THE PERIOD...
BUILD EAST AND SQUEEZE THE TROUGH OUT OF EXISTENCE. IN THE MEAN
TIME HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE RISE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. INITIALLY...A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CWA MONDAY WITH MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND TO THE
SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THE LOWER VALLEY...INCLUDING ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE...COULD SEE SOME RAIN AS A RESULT. BY MID WEEK THE
LOW CENTER WILL SHIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY NW...AND THE COMBINATION OF
TROUGHING SOUTH OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WEST GULF...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION PUMPING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS OVER THE WEST GULF. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT
AS CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE GULF DURING THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM BUT TEMPERED WITH
PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE NOTED MORE ALONG THE
COAST AND THE LOWER VALLEY...WITH LESS SIGNIFICANCE INLAND. THE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL FILL LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT
BETTER DEFINED WEAKNESS WILL SET UP IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND
NORTH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 19 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KTS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 4
FT WITH A PERIOD OF 5 S AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...
FEATURING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS...ARE EXPECTED THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL START OUT
RELATIVELY LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THEN WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT
BRIEFLY TO NORTH WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
CONTINUE INTO TUES NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR OVERPOWERS THE SITUATION
AND PUSHES OUT INTO THE GULF. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOW
SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE
AROUND MID WEEK...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
WEST GULF WITH A WEAKNESS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COMPOUNDING
THINGS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL INITIALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA
BUT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE
MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS...POSSIBLY EXPANDING ASHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SYNOPTICALLY HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT
WITH LOW SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 78 94 77 / 50 20 20 10
BROWNSVILLE 98 78 97 77 / 50 20 20 20
HARLINGEN 99 76 98 77 / 50 20 20 10
MCALLEN 99 78 100 77 / 50 30 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 101 79 102 78 / 60 30 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 79 90 78 / 50 20 20 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
61/53/59/58/CAMPBELL