Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/25/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
454 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 447 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
UPDATED TO ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS EAST OF A
LINE FROM COLORADO SPRINGS TO SPRINGFIELD. THIS WATCH GOES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...DAMAGING OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
...CONTINUED DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
CURRENTLY...SMOKE FROM THE WEST FORK COMPLEX IS STARTING TO SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. RADAR HAS BEEN PRETTY QUIET WITH A FEW CELLS
BUBBLING NEAR THE SPANISH PEAKS/WALSENBURG AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAS KEPT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS. CUMULUS HAVE BEEN
PERCOLATING ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...IT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE WRF SOLUTIONS AND HRRR WHICH
DEVELOP SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM COLORADO SPRINGS...SOUTHEAST TO
SPRINGFIELD AND TRACK THEM EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH 05Z.
UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES ARE WEAK BASED ON THE NSSL WRF SOLUTION AND
SHEARS ARE ONLY RUNNING AROUND 30 KTS SO CURRENTLY THINKING THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO. EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS
THROUGH 06Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH...AND HUMIDITY VALUES WELL UNDER 10
PERCENT. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO...BUT PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS AND AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY INTO TO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SMOKE FROM AREA FIRES WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND POOR AIR
QUALITY. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE ERN BORDER EARLY MON
EVENING...BUT WL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY OUT THERE FOR NOW. DRY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVR THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. IT LOOKS
LIKE LOW LEVEL MSTR OVR THE ERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS MAY BE
A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE...KEEPING MIN RH VALUES HIGH ENOUGH THAT A
FIRE WX HIGHLIGHT SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA. HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE WINDS WL BE STRONG ENOUGH...ALONG WITH
DRY ENOUGH HUMIDITIES OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY (FIRE ZONE 224) AND
ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS (FIRE ZONE 225)...TO WARRANT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT HAVE STRONG ENOUGH
WINDS TO WARRANT A FIRE HIGHLIGHT.
FOR WED AN UPR RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OVR THE WEST CENTRAL
NM...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. STILL LOOKS DRY ACRS THE AREA...WITH MAYBE JUST A
COUPLE SHOWERS/TSTMS POPPING UP OVR SOME MTN LOCATIONS. THE UPR
RIDGE THEN REMAINS OVR THE AREA THU THRU SAT WITH MODELS
INDICATING SOME MSTR TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
JUST A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR AND NR THE MTNS. THE GFS SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SAT
NIGHT/SUN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND SENDING A FRONT INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SMOKE IS
STARTING TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...BUT THE LATE
START HAS KEPT THE DENSITY AND COVERAGE A BIT LESS AND DO NOT FORESEE
IT BEING AN ISSUE AT KPUB OR KCOS TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
DEVELOPMENT AT OR NEAR THE TERMINALS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ220>230.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ223>225.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ224-225.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
251 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
...CONTINUED DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
CURRENTLY...SMOKE FROM THE WEST FORK COMPLEX IS STARTING TO SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. RADAR HAS BEEN PRETTY QUIET WITH A FEW CELLS
BUBBLING NEAR THE SPANISH PEAKS/WALSENBURG AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAS KEPT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS. CUMULUS HAVE BEEN
PERCOLATING ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...IT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE WRF SOLUTIONS AND HRRR WHICH
DEVELOP SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM COLORADO SPRINGS...SOUTHEAST TO
SPRINGFIELD AND TRACK THEM EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH 05Z.
UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES ARE WEAK BASED ON THE NSSL WRF SOLUTION AND
SHEARS ARE ONLY RUNNING AROUND 30 KTS SO CURRENTLY THINKING THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO. EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS
THROUGH 06Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH...AND HUMIDITY VALUES WELL UNDER 10
PERCENT. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO...BUT PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS AND AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY INTO TO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SMOKE FROM AREA FIRES WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND POOR AIR
QUALITY. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE ERN BORDER EARLY MON
EVENING...BUT WL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY OUT THERE FOR NOW. DRY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVR THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. IT LOOKS
LIKE LOW LEVEL MSTR OVR THE ERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS MAY BE
A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE...KEEPING MIN RH VALUES HIGH ENOUGH THAT A
FIRE WX HIGHLIGHT SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA. HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE WINDS WL BE STRONG ENOUGH...ALONG WITH
DRY ENOUGH HUMIDITIES OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY (FIRE ZONE 224) AND
ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS (FIRE ZONE 225)...TO WARRANT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT HAVE STRONG ENOUGH
WINDS TO WARRANT A FIRE HIGHLIGHT.
FOR WED AN UPR RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OVR THE WEST CENTRAL
NM...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. STILL LOOKS DRY ACRS THE AREA...WITH MAYBE JUST A
COUPLE SHOWERS/TSTMS POPPING UP OVR SOME MTN LOCATIONS. THE UPR
RIDGE THEN REMAINS OVR THE AREA THU THRU SAT WITH MODELS
INDICATING SOME MSTR TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
JUST A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR AND NR THE MTNS. THE GFS SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SAT
NIGHT/SUN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND SENDING A FRONT INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SMOKE IS
STARTING TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...BUT THE LATE
START HAS KEPT THE DENSITY AND COVERAGE A BIT LESS AND DO NOT FORESEE
IT BEING AN ISSUE AT KPUB OR KCOS TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
DEVELOPMENT AT OR NEAR THE TERMINALS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ220>230.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ223>225.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ224-225.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE COMMON WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS
EACH NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WESTWARD ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION. EXPERIMENTAL WRF
REFLECTIVITIES SUGGEST MORE UPSCALE GROWTH TO CONTINUE AS SBCAPES
PER LAPS/SPC-MESOSCALE WINDOW ARE CLOSE TO 3K J/KG. IN FACT...SPC
HAS INCREASED OUR PROBABILITIES INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE RECENT SWOMCD HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WATCH. BEST SHEAR REMAINS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER...WITH
DEWPOINTS NOW HOVERING NEAR 70F AND TEMPS NEAR 90F THE ENVIRONMENT
IS CONDUCIVE FOR CELLULAR STRUCTURES AND/OR SMALL BOWS ALONG THE
COLD POOL THAT IS GENERATED.
AS OF 1026 AM EDT...A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS
MORNING...LEAVING UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL /ACCORDING TO RADAR
ESTIMATES/ IN SPOTS NEAR INDIAN LAKE.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY...AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AT THE
SFC...AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. SFC
DEWPTS TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND U60S IN SOME LOCATIONS
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC LAYER WINDS. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO
+16 TO +17C WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS IN
THE M80S TO NEAR 90F WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER THE MTNS.
WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICES MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE BEST 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS ACTUALLY JUST NORTH OF THE FCST AREA ACROSS NRN
NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH 20-30 KTS. MOST OF THE ALY FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF 10-20 KTS FOR PULSE OR VERY
LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE HIGH IN
THE 12-14 KFT AGL RANGE WITH WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 11 KFT AGL.
SBCAPES WILL BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE ACCORDING TO THE GFS.
NOT BUYING INTO THE NAM/S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOWER 70S DEWPT AIR OVER
THE REGION WITH SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
THE NEW 12Z NAM...AS WELL AS THE 12Z 3KM HRRR AND THE 12Z LOCAL
HIRES WRF SHOW CELLULAR CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...AND MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND SRN VT...BY THE MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EACH
MODEL HAS THE PLACEMENT/TIMING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE MODE /CELLULAR PULSE TYPE STORMS/ SEEMS TO BE SIMILAR
IN EACH MODEL.
THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.62. AS A
RESULT...A MENTION OF HVY RAIN HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE GRIDDED...TEXT FORECASTS...AND HWO
STATEMENT. AN ISOLD SEVERE MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES...BUT THE FORECASTED WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
LESS THAN 6 C/KM AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER
SHOULD PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD STRONG CELLS. SPC MAINTAINS A /SEE
TEXT/ AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION SHOULD SHRIVEL UP QUICKLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. A PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE FCST
AREA WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVELS. IT HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS. STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
MONDAY...THE SULTRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL PROMOTE INCREASED
CHANCES OF MORE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DEEP SHEAR VALUES LESS
THAN 15 KTS. SBCAPES WILL SOLIDLY BE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVERS OR LATCH TO THE TERRAIN FOR
A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL IN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR
MASS. THE NAM SHOWS HINTS OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE W/SW ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF/GFS ALSO SHOW A
SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN TO AROUND 6.5C/KM ON THE GFS. 850HPA THETA-E VALUES
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 340K ACROSS PORTIONS CNTRL-ERN NY. THE
THETA-E RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS NIGHT FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS TROUGH. HVY RAIN HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN IN THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS. H850 TEMPS INCREASE CLOSE TO +17
TO +18C WITH THE GFSMOS TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN THE METMOS TEMPS. A
BLEND WAS USED WITH A SHADING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFSMOS VALUES
WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS
MAY SPIKE UP A LITTLE BIT IN THE VALLEYS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WITH
HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS. APPARENT TEMPS COULD GET INTO M90S OR EVEN A FEW U90S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.
MONDAY NIGHT...SOME SUBSIDENCE OR DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE SKIES TO GO AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY THE NRN ZONES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE BROKEN RECORD FCST CONTINUES WITH DIURNAL
DRIVEN ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BTWN THE MTNS
AND VALLEYS...BUT POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZES OR WEAK SFC TROUGHS
UPSTREAM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
STILL FAVORING THE GFS IN TERMS OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. SBCAPES
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO MON WITH
SOME L90S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND WIDESPREAD 80S OVER THE
FCST AREA. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MID AND
U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND L60S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND AMPLIFIES WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST INCREASING.
OVERALL THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WEATHER BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED
OVER THE NORTHEAST AS PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DEEPENING IT.
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE LIES WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORT WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARIES. A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION MID
WEEK THEN RETURN BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.
HOWEVER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...IN THE 60S...MAKING FOR HUMID
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE TSRA TO AFFECT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU BY THE LATE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS...SO HAVE INCLUDED
A TEMPO FOR THOSE SITES. KPOU SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH
AND CAPPED TO AVOID ANY TSTM ACTIVITY. WITHIN ANY TSTM...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK BURST OF HVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG WIND
GUST AS WELL.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...SOME
FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESP IF ANY TERMINALS RECEIVE ANY
RAINFALL. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR FOG WOULD BE
KGFL/KPSF...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES FOR MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON PM-TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTN INTO
THE EVNG. MVFR-IFR FOG LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY IN THE MORNING.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
THU-FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH EACH NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS CONTINUE TO RECEDE TO LATE JUNE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE NEXT 5
DAYS WILL FEATURE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS.
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER
THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY
INTO THURSDAY. SOME SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND BROOKS MAY REACH
BANKFULL QUICKLY IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE COMMON WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS
EACH NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1026 AM EDT...A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS
MORNING...LEAVING UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL /ACCORDING TO RADAR
ESTIMATES/ IN SPOTS NEAR INDIAN LAKE.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY...AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AT THE
SFC...AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. SFC
DEWPTS TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND U60S IN SOME LOCATIONS
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC LAYER WINDS. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO
+16 TO +17C WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS IN
THE M80S TO NEAR 90F WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER THE MTNS.
WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICES MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE BEST 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS ACTUALLY JUST NORTH OF THE FCST AREA ACROSS NRN
NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH 20-30 KTS. MOST OF THE ALY FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF 10-20 KTS FOR PULSE OR VERY
LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE HIGH IN
THE 12-14 KFT AGL RANGE WITH WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 11 KFT AGL.
SBCAPES WILL BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE ACCORDING TO THE GFS.
NOT BUYING INTO THE NAM/S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOWER 70S DEWPT AIR OVER
THE REGION WITH SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
THE NEW 12Z NAM...AS WELL AS THE 12Z 3KM HRRR AND THE 12Z LOCAL
HIRES WRF SHOW CELLULAR CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...AND MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND SRN VT...BY THE MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EACH
MODEL HAS THE PLACEMENT/TIMING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE MODE /CELLULAR PULSE TYPE STORMS/ SEEMS TO BE SIMILAR
IN EACH MODEL.
THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.62. AS A
RESULT...A MENTION OF HVY RAIN HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE GRIDDED...TEXT FORECASTS...AND HWO
STATEMENT. AN ISOLD SEVERE MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES...BUT THE FORECASTED WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
LESS THAN 6 C/KM AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER
SHOULD PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD STRONG CELLS. SPC MAINTAINS A /SEE
TEXT/ AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION SHOULD SHRIVEL UP QUICKLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. A PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE FCST
AREA WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVELS. IT HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS. STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
MONDAY...THE SULTRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL PROMOTE INCREASED
CHANCES OF MORE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DEEP SHEAR VALUES LESS
THAN 15 KTS. SBCAPES WILL SOLIDLY BE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVERS OR LATCH TO THE TERRAIN FOR
A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL IN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR
MASS. THE NAM SHOWS HINTS OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE W/SW ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF/GFS ALSO SHOW A
SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN TO AROUND 6.5C/KM ON THE GFS. 850HPA THETA-E VALUES
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 340K ACROSS PORTIONS CNTRL-ERN NY. THE
THETA-E RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS NIGHT FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS TROUGH. HVY RAIN HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN IN THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS. H850 TEMPS INCREASE CLOSE TO +17
TO +18C WITH THE GFSMOS TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN THE METMOS TEMPS. A
BLEND WAS USED WITH A SHADING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFSMOS VALUES
WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS
MAY SPIKE UP A LITTLE BIT IN THE VALLEYS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WITH
HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS. APPARENT TEMPS COULD GET INTO M90S OR EVEN A FEW U90S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.
MONDAY NIGHT...SOME SUBSIDENCE OR DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE SKIES TO GO AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY THE NRN ZONES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE BROKEN RECORD FCST CONTINUES WITH DIURNAL
DRIVEN ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BTWN THE MTNS
AND VALLEYS...BUT POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZES OR WEAK SFC TROUGHS
UPSTREAM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
STILL FAVORING THE GFS IN TERMS OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. SBCAPES
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO MON WITH
SOME L90S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND WIDESPREAD 80S OVER THE
FCST AREA. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MID AND
U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND L60S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND AMPLIFIES WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST INCREASING.
OVERALL THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WEATHER BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED
OVER THE NORTHEAST AS PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DEEPENING IT.
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE LIES WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORT WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARIES. A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION MID
WEEK THEN RETURN BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.
HOWEVER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...IN THE 60S...MAKING FOR HUMID
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE TSRA TO AFFECT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU BY THE LATE AFTN OR EVENING HOURS...SO HAVE INCLUDED
A TEMPO FOR THOSE SITES. KPOU SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH
AND CAPPED TO AVOID ANY TSTM ACTIVITY. WITHIN ANY TSTM...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK BURST OF HVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG WIND
GUST AS WELL.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...SOME
FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESP IF ANY TERMINALS RECEIVE ANY
RAINFALL. THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR FOG WOULD BE
KGFL/KPSF...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES FOR MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON PM-TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTN INTO
THE EVNG. MVFR-IFR FOG LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY IN THE MORNING.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
THU-FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH EACH NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS CONTINUE TO RECEDE TO LATE JUNE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE NEXT 5
DAYS WILL FEATURE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS.
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER
THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY
INTO THURSDAY. SOME SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND BROOKS MAY REACH
BANKFULL QUICKLY IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE COMMON WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS
EACH NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1026 AM EDT...A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS
MORNING...LEAVING UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL /ACCORDING TO RADAR
ESTIMATES/ IN SPOTS NEAR INDIAN LAKE.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY...AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AT THE
SFC...AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. SFC
DEWPTS TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND U60S IN SOME LOCATIONS
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC LAYER WINDS. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO
+16 TO +17C WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS IN
THE M80S TO NEAR 90F WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS WITH U70S TO
L80S OVER THE MTNS.
WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICES MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE BEST 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS ACTUALLY JUST NORTH OF THE FCST AREA ACROSS NRN
NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH 20-30 KTS. MOST OF THE ALY FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF 10-20 KTS FOR PULSE OR VERY
LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE HIGH IN
THE 12-14 KFT AGL RANGE WITH WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 11 KFT AGL.
SBCAPES WILL BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE ACCORDING TO THE GFS.
NOT BUYING INTO THE NAM/S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOWER 70S DEWPT AIR OVER
THE REGION WITH SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
THE NEW 12Z NAM...AS WELL AS THE 12Z 3KM HRRR AND THE 12Z LOCAL
HIRES WRF SHOW CELLULAR CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN...AND MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND SRN VT...BY THE MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EACH
MODEL HAS THE PLACEMENT/TIMING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE MODE /CELLULAR PULSE TYPE STORMS/ SEEMS TO BE SIMILAR
IN EACH MODEL.
THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.62. AS A
RESULT...A MENTION OF HVY RAIN HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE GRIDDED...TEXT FORECASTS...AND HWO
STATEMENT. AN ISOLD SEVERE MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES...BUT THE FORECASTED WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
LESS THAN 6 C/KM AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER
SHOULD PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD STRONG CELLS. SPC MAINTAINS A /SEE
TEXT/ AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION SHOULD SHRIVEL UP QUICKLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. A PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE FCST
AREA WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVELS. IT HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS. STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
MONDAY...THE SULTRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL PROMOTE INCREASED
CHANCES OF MORE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DEEP SHEAR VALUES LESS
THAN 15 KTS. SBCAPES WILL SOLIDLY BE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVERS OR LATCH TO THE TERRAIN FOR
A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL IN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR
MASS. THE NAM SHOWS HINTS OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE W/SW ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF/GFS ALSO SHOW A
SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN TO AROUND 6.5C/KM ON THE GFS. 850HPA THETA-E VALUES
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 340K ACROSS PORTIONS CNTRL-ERN NY. THE
THETA-E RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS NIGHT FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS TROUGH. HVY RAIN HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN IN THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS. H850 TEMPS INCREASE CLOSE TO +17
TO +18C WITH THE GFSMOS TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN THE METMOS TEMPS. A
BLEND WAS USED WITH A SHADING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFSMOS VALUES
WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS
MAY SPIKE UP A LITTLE BIT IN THE VALLEYS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WITH
HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS. APPARENT TEMPS COULD GET INTO M90S OR EVEN A FEW U90S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.
MONDAY NIGHT...SOME SUBSIDENCE OR DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE SKIES TO GO AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY THE NRN ZONES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE BROKEN RECORD FCST CONTINUES WITH DIURNAL
DRIVEN ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BTWN THE MTNS
AND VALLEYS...BUT POTENTIAL LAKE BREEZES OR WEAK SFC TROUGHS
UPSTREAM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
STILL FAVORING THE GFS IN TERMS OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. SBCAPES
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO MON WITH
SOME L90S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND WIDESPREAD 80S OVER THE
FCST AREA. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MID AND
U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND L60S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND AMPLIFIES WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST INCREASING.
OVERALL THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WEATHER BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED
OVER THE NORTHEAST AS PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH DEEPENING IT.
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE LIES WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORT WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARIES. A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION MID
WEEK THEN RETURN BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE REGION AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.
HOWEVER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...IN THE 60S...MAKING FOR HUMID
CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE IN
THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH VCSH IN TAFS EXCEPT NOT KPOU AS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THEIR
NORTH. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE TODAY WELL INTO THE
60S SO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR AS WILL HAVE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTN INTO
THE EVNG. MVFR-IFR FOG LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY IN THE MORNING.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH EACH NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS CONTINUE TO RECEDE TO LATE JUNE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE NEXT 5
DAYS WILL FEATURE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS.
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF
RAINFALL WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER
THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY
INTO THURSDAY. SOME SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND BROOKS MAY REACH
BANKFULL QUICKLY IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1107 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SEVERAL TWEAKS TO GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY TO
UPDATE TRENDS IN POPS. REDUCED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND TRENDED THEM DOWN SOUTH AS WELL...WITH AN OVERALL REDUCTION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TRENDING BACK UP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO WEATHER GRID WORDING. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...CENTRAL AL AND SOUTHEAST MS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WESTERN GA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE WEST CONGEALING WITH THE SE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FOR OVERNIGHT...WV LOOP SHOWS A GOOD PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SE IN THE FLOW ACROSS W KY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO
DEVELOP SCT ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT OVERNIGHT...SCT SHRA/TSRA SEEM VERY
REASONABLE.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE
OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS REMAIN THE SAME ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...BUT WILL CREEP UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION...BL WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT (AOB
15K)...SO MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW OR NEARLY STATIONARY.
EVEN THOUGH THE ATMOS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AT THE
SURFACE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR REMAIN VERY WEAK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH DAY 7. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SURFACE RIDGE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE SOUTHEAST BY WEEKS
END. THEY ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN US AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HAVE
COOLED EXTENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. STILL LOOKING
FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND...AND EXPECT THIS UPWARD TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE COMING DAYS. ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT MORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
PRECIP ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DROP IN POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
AS A RESULT.
31/01
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MOST CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE
KEPT VCSH LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT IFR OR LOWER
FOG DEPENDING ON WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE POINTING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 12Z
TUESDAY...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED SCT015 EXCEPT AT MCN WHERE
BROUGHT IN BKN015. EXPECT LIFTING BY LATE MORNING BUT CIGS
REMAINING BKN LOW VFR. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO SSW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAY SEE BRIEF SSE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-LOW ON CIGS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY...MEDIUM ON IMPACTS TO ATL.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WINDS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 87 69 90 / 30 50 30 30
ATLANTA 70 86 71 88 / 30 50 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 64 81 64 86 / 40 50 20 40
CARTERSVILLE 69 88 69 89 / 20 50 20 30
COLUMBUS 71 91 72 92 / 50 40 30 30
GAINESVILLE 68 85 70 87 / 20 50 30 30
MACON 71 89 71 90 / 60 50 30 30
ROME 68 89 69 91 / 20 40 10 30
PEACHTREE CITY 69 87 69 88 / 30 50 30 30
VIDALIA 72 88 73 92 / 50 50 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...CENTRAL AL AND SOUTHEAST MS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WESTERN GA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE WEST CONGEALING WITH THE SE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FOR OVERNIGHT...WV LOOP SHOWS A GOOD PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SE IN THE FLOW ACROSS W KY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO
DEVELOP SCT ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT OVERNIGHT...SCT SHRA/TSRA SEEM VERY
REASONABLE.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE
OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS REMAIN THE SAME ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...BUT WILL CREEP UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION...BL WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT (AOB
15K)...SO MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW OR NEARLY STATIONARY.
EVEN THOUGH THE ATMOS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AT THE
SURFACE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR REMAIN VERY WEAK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH DAY 7. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SURFACE RIDGE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE SOUTHEAST BY WEEKS
END. THEY ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN US AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HAVE
COOLED EXTENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. STILL LOOKING
FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND...AND EXPECT THIS UPWARD TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE COMING DAYS. ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT MORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
PRECIP ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DROP IN POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
AS A RESULT.
31/01
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MOST CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE
KEPT VCSH LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT INTERMITTENT IFR OR LOWER
FOG DEPENDING ON WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE POINTING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 12Z
TUESDAY...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED SCT015 EXCEPT AT MCN WHERE
BROUGHT IN BKN015. EXPECT LIFTING BY LATE MORNING BUT CIGS
REMAINING BKN LOW VFR. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO SSW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH MAY SEE BRIEF SSE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-LOW ON CIGS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY...MEDIUM ON IMPACTS TO ATL.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WINDS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 87 69 90 / 30 50 30 30
ATLANTA 70 86 71 88 / 30 50 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 64 81 64 86 / 40 50 20 40
CARTERSVILLE 69 88 69 89 / 20 50 20 30
COLUMBUS 71 91 72 92 / 50 40 30 30
GAINESVILLE 68 85 70 87 / 20 50 30 30
MACON 71 89 71 90 / 60 50 30 30
ROME 68 89 69 91 / 20 40 10 30
PEACHTREE CITY 69 87 69 88 / 30 50 30 30
VIDALIA 72 88 73 92 / 50 50 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
904 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
ANOTHER MCS EXITING THE CWA THIS EVENING...LEAVING A COOLER AND
MORE HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER IN ITS WAKE. WILL BE ADJUSTING THE
HOURLY TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE AREA WILL
BE SEEING THEIR LOWS NOW...IN THE REMAINING COLD AIR FROM CONVECTION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPS FROM THE SOUTH TO COUNTER
ANY ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET. WILL WATCH
CLOSELY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...BUT SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY IF IT
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE NORTH IN
HRRR AND THE RUC...BUT WITH SO MANY BOUNDARIES OUT THERE FROM
DYING CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 658 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
MOSTLY GENERIC FORECAST YET AGAIN WITH THE POOR MODEL HANDLING OF
THE MCS TRAIN OVER THE REGION. ADJUSTING FORECAST IN THE SHORT
TERM TO HANDLE THE SLOWLY DWINDLING CONVECTION. PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER FOR CMI AND BMI...BUT HAVE PULLED MOST PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CONCERN FOR PRECIP CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW
THOUGH MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. MOST FAITH IN HRRR FOR
NOW...WHICH HAS A MORE SCT SIGNATURE. KEEPING MENTION OF VCTS
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SCT CU AND BKN MID CLOUDS. VFR THROUGHOUT
FOR NOW WITH EXCEPTION OF UNDER CONVECTION. ANY RAPID CLEARING IN
THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL UP THE RISK OF A VISBY DROP.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
THE SHORT TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY PERIODIC
BOUTS OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING...ALONG WITH HIGH HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS LATE IN
THE WEEK PROVIDING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND.
BASED ON THE 3-5" OF RAIN FROM PEORIA AND NORTH...WE DECIDED TO
INCLUDE OUR NORTHERN 5 COUNTIES IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
INITIAL SEVERE STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BUT ANOTHER WATCH FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF THAT WATCH MAY
BE COMING SOON. BASED ON RADAR ANALYSIS...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LINE OF STORMS IN N MO AND E IOWA APPEARS TO BE ERODING EARLY ON.
WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK AIDED BY
INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. IF NOT...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE WATCH WILL NOT BE AFFECTED AS MUCH WITH
THIS ROUND OF STORMS. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE SHOWING THE LINE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IL...WHICH WILL MAKE IT MU-CAPE VALUES ARE CLIMBING TO NEAR 3000
J/KG AS SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE LINE HAS HELPED BOOST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL AID IN DOWNBURST WINDS
BEING ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS DOWNBURST
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1100 J/KG...WHICH ALSO POINTS TOWARD EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH VGP
ABOVE 0.2 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WE COULD SEE SOME
ROTATING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO POSSIBLE.
THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 4
PM...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR BMI BY 6 PM AND INTO INDIANA BY
8-9 PM.
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE LINE MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
COMPLEX...SO A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR NW
COUNTIES THROUGH MORNING. THEREFORE WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-72/74-DANVILLE. WE ORIGINALLY HAD
EXPECTED SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE
STORMS...AND WE STILL MAY SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...SPC HAS EXPANDED THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FARTHER SOUTH TO
INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SO WE DECIDED TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. WE
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING CAPPED TUES AS THE MID LEVELS
WARM. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AREAS THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF ML-CAPE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. WE STILL MAINLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR NORTH OF I-74 WHERE WE WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE INCREASING BETTER DESTABILIZATION OF THE
LOWER TROP AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO
A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH FROM CANADA. SURFACE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN HIGH...BUT SUNSHINE MAY BE A BIT MORE LIMITED IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUES AND WED WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND
100 IN MANY AREAS BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND WHERE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD DEVELOPS AHEAD OF CONVECTION. STILL...VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT BEGINNING
LATE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR DELAYED
UNTIL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR
OCCURS. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS...WITH A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER THURS AND
THURS NIGHT. AS A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE IN THE 500 MB TROUGH ROUNDS
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME CUT OFF
AND LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THAT WOULD LIKELY KEEP RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MUCH OF THAT TIME...AS THE COLD POOL PROVIDES FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES FOR UPDRAFTS. SO A CHANGE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CLOUDY
AND COOLER APPEARS IN THE OFFING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
703 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
THE SHORT TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY PERIODIC
BOUTS OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING...ALONG WITH HIGH HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS LATE IN
THE WEEK PROVIDING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND.
BASED ON THE 3-5" OF RAIN FROM PEORIA AND NORTH...WE DECIDED TO
INCLUDE OUR NORTHERN 5 COUNTIES IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
INITIAL SEVERE STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BUT ANOTHER WATCH FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF THAT WATCH MAY
BE COMING SOON. BASED ON RADAR ANALYSIS...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LINE OF STORMS IN N MO AND E IOWA APPEARS TO BE ERODING EARLY ON.
WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK AIDED BY
INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. IF NOT...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE WATCH WILL NOT BE AFFECTED AS MUCH WITH
THIS ROUND OF STORMS. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE SHOWING THE LINE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IL...WHICH WILL MAKE IT MU-CAPE VALUES ARE CLIMBING TO NEAR 3000
J/KG AS SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE LINE HAS HELPED BOOST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL AID IN DOWNBURST WINDS
BEING ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS DOWNBURST
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1100 J/KG...WHICH ALSO POINTS TOWARD EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH VGP
ABOVE 0.2 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WE COULD SEE SOME
ROTATING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO POSSIBLE.
THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 4
PM...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR BMI BY 6 PM AND INTO INDIANA BY
8-9 PM.
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE LINE MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
COMPLEX...SO A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR NW
COUNTIES THROUGH MORNING. THEREFORE WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-72/74-DANVILLE. WE ORIGINALLY HAD
EXPECTED SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE
STORMS...AND WE STILL MAY SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...SPC HAS EXPANDED THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FARTHER SOUTH TO
INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SO WE DECIDED TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. WE
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING CAPPED TUES AS THE MID LEVELS
WARM. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AREAS THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF ML-CAPE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. WE STILL MAINLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR NORTH OF I-74 WHERE WE WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE INCREASING BETTER DESTABILIZATION OF THE
LOWER TROP AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO
A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH FROM CANADA. SURFACE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN HIGH...BUT SUNSHINE MAY BE A BIT MORE LIMITED IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUES AND WED WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND
100 IN MANY AREAS BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND WHERE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD DEVELOPS AHEAD OF CONVECTION. STILL...VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT BEGINNING
LATE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR DELAYED
UNTIL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR
OCCURS. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS...WITH A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER THURS AND
THURS NIGHT. AS A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE IN THE 500 MB TROUGH ROUNDS
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME CUT OFF
AND LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THAT WOULD LIKELY KEEP RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MUCH OF THAT TIME...AS THE COLD POOL PROVIDES FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES FOR UPDRAFTS. SO A CHANGE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CLOUDY
AND COOLER APPEARS IN THE OFFING.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 658 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
MOSTLY GENERIC FORECAST YET AGAIN WITH THE POOR MODEL HANDLING OF
THE MCS TRAIN OVER THE REGION. ADJUSTING FORECAST IN THE SHORT
TERM TO HANDLE THE SLOWLY DWINDLING CONVECTION. PRECIP HOLDING
TOGETHER FOR CMI AND BMI...BUT HAVE PULLED MOST PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CONCERN FOR PRECIP CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW
THOUGH MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. MOST FAITH IN HRRR FOR
NOW...WHICH HAS A MORE SCT SIGNATURE. KEEPING MENTION OF VCTS
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SCT CU AND BKN MID CLOUDS. VFR THROUGHOUT
FOR NOW WITH EXCEPTION OF UNDER CONVECTION. ANY RAPID CLEARING IN
THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER WILL UP THE RISK OF A VISBY DROP.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
421 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
304 PM CDT
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOLLOWED BY TEMPS WHICH MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE CONVECTION. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHICH IS LOSING DEFINITION AS IS MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
LIFTING NORTHEAST. THE UPPER FLOW IS LESS AMPLIFIED FURTHER SOUTH OF
THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES THAT ARE TRANSLATING NORTHEAST AS WELL. THE NEXT UPPER LOW OF
NOTE IS COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HELPING TO AMPLIFY A
RIDGE OVER OREGON/WASHINGTON. ENERGY EMANATING FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH WEAKER LOW
PRESSURE SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STRETCHED FROM THE MN LOW BUT HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY
THANKS TO COLD POOLS FROM MORNING CONVECTION.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...TOUGH FORECAST ONCE AGAIN IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EVOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IOWA CONVECTION IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. A BETTER ORGANIZED
COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION BUT IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE AXIS OF MUCH
BETTER INSTABILITY AS WELL AS BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA LIKELY IN BETTER CONJUNCTION WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER
LOW OVER APPALACHIA. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT THE OUTFLOW TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TRIGGERING SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2000+ J/KG OF MIXED
LAYER CAPE OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS BUT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAK SO CORES SHOULD BE PRETTY PULSEY. LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE BUT RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM MDW DO NOT SHOW A TON OF
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND RAP ANALYSIS OF DCAPE IS LOW AS WELL. WOULD
EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WOULD WANE WITH SUNSET.
REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WAVE OVER NE
KS/NW MO WHICH APPEARS TO BE TURNING MORE EASTWARD IN THE LAST FEW
SCANS. THIS IS LIKELY HELPING THE COMPLEX TAKING SHAPE OVER MO.
SHORT TERM/HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS IOWA AS THE FLOW
HAS SETTLED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST TONIGHT. THE OUTFLOW CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDS INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THERE ARE
HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT AND LIKELY A BOUNDARY SET UP BY
THE CURRENT COMPLEX MAY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NOT FAR FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE KS/MO WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THIS SAME AREA TONIGHT WHICH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN AN AREA OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THEREFORE IT IS POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND ROLL
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
TO OVERNIGHT POPS BUT DID INCREASE THEM SOMEWHAT OVER THE FAR SOUTH.
AS FOR MONDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF
POTENTIAL UPPER WAVES BUT WATER VAPOR DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A WAVE
COMING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD COME ACROSS
THE REGION LATER MONDAY BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH MID CHANCE POPS
WITH LATER IN THE DAY MORE FAVORED. PROVIDED THE LATER TIMING WORKS
OUT THEN WE WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO WARM BUT THERE MAY BE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AROUND SO WILL HOLD TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S FOR
MOST AREAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE LITTERED WITH WAVES TRAVERSING IT.
HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.75 INCHES. THESE FACTORS PROVIDE CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH TO KEY IN
ON FOR A COHERENT FORCING MECHANISM GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
HAVING DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A TROUGH
AXIS/FRONT EXTENDING INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MINNESOTA. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WITH IT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND HIGH
PLAINS WITH A WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST
OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE AMPLIFYING LATE IN THE
WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS BUT THE SIGNAL
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVERALL. THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY OR SO. LOW POPS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOW CONTINUING TO FAVOR WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGES.
HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOVER AROUND 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ASSUMING CONVECTION OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS NOT AN ISSUE...WHICH
WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER HIGHS IF IT IS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY COOLER MID LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN KEEPING
HIGHS BACK IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 70S POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MDB
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
304 PM CDT
GAVE CONSIDERATION TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST AND FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA GIVEN THE RAINFALL OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL SET UP
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AREAS AND TIMING CAN BE
BETTER DEFINED. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS STILL MOVING FAIRLY STEADILY
BUT 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY. WILL PASS
THE CONCERN ABOUT A WATCH TO THE EVENING SHIFT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
* SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBILITY FOR A CONTINUED ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST PERIOD AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE TERMINALS REMAINS. DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY CLEAR GOOD FORCING MECHANISMS WITH PRECIP TRENDS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH MODEL GUIDANCE NOT TOO MUCH OF ANY HELP. ALTHOUGH IN THE
NEAR TERM...CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOME FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL
FEATURES AS WELL AS SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH THESE FEATURES IN PLACE...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ALTHOUGH
DESPITE THE BOUNDARIES/MID LEVEL FEATURES...THE ORIENTATION AND
WEAKNESS OF THEM SHOULD ONLY PROVIDE ISOLATED TO AT BEST WIDELY
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP TO BE ON THE BRIEF SIDE. SO WITH THIS LOW COVERAGE/LOW
CONFIDENCE OF THIS AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING
TO POSSIBLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT...AS
ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POSSIBILITY. AS WAS
MENTIONED ABOVE...SEVERAL FEATURES COULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...HAVE ONCE
AGAIN LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF THE MORE SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP/CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
420 PM CDT
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL BE MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO...REACHING NEAR SOUTHERN JAMES
BAY BY TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
FAR TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE FROM
FAR WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS PERSISTENT FLOW WILL KEEP VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOST OF THE FOG HAD DISSIPATED ON NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH THE MOIST AIR AND COOL LAKE WATER FOG IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND BECOME DENSE IN AREAS. THE CURRENT
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS THERE WILL BE NO
CHANGE IN AIRMASS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE DURING
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE
WEST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AND SHIFT
WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565
UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
306 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
304 PM CDT
SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOLLOWED BY TEMPS WHICH MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE CONVECTION. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHICH IS LOSING DEFINITION AS IS MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
LIFTING NORTHEAST. THE UPPER FLOW IS LESS AMPLIFIED FURTHER SOUTH OF
THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES THAT ARE TRANSLATING NORTHEAST AS WELL. THE NEXT UPPER LOW OF
NOTE IS COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HELPING TO AMPLIFY A
RIDGE OVER OREGON/WASHINGTON. ENERGY EMANATING FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH WEAKER LOW
PRESSURE SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STRETCHED FROM THE MN LOW BUT HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY
THANKS TO COLD POOLS FROM MORNING CONVECTION.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...TOUGH FORECAST ONCE AGAIN IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EVOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IOWA CONVECTION IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. A BETTER ORGANIZED
COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION BUT IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE AXIS OF MUCH
BETTER INSTABILITY AS WELL AS BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA LIKELY IN BETTER CONJUNCTION WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER
LOW OVER APPALACHIA. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT THE OUTFLOW TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TRIGGERING SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2000+ J/KG OF MIXED
LAYER CAPE OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS BUT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAK SO CORES SHOULD BE PRETTY PULSEY. LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE BUT RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM MDW DO NOT SHOW A TON OF
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND RAP ANALYSIS OF DCAPE IS LOW AS WELL. WOULD
EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WOULD WANE WITH SUNSET.
REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WAVE OVER NE
KS/NW MO WHICH APPEARS TO BE TURNING MORE EASTWARD IN THE LAST FEW
SCANS. THIS IS LIKELY HELPING THE COMPLEX TAKING SHAPE OVER MO.
SHORT TERM/HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE EARLIER COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS IOWA AS THE FLOW
HAS SETTLED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST TONIGHT. THE OUTFLOW CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA EXTENDS INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THERE ARE
HINTS THAT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT AND LIKELY A BOUNDARY SET UP BY
THE CURRENT COMPLEX MAY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NOT FAR FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...THE KS/MO WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THIS SAME AREA TONIGHT WHICH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN AN AREA OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THEREFORE IT IS POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND ROLL
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
TO OVERNIGHT POPS BUT DID INCREASE THEM SOMEWHAT OVER THE FAR SOUTH.
AS FOR MONDAY...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF
POTENTIAL UPPER WAVES BUT WATER VAPOR DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A WAVE
COMING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD COME ACROSS
THE REGION LATER MONDAY BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL BE MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH MID CHANCE POPS
WITH LATER IN THE DAY MORE FAVORED. PROVIDED THE LATER TIMING WORKS
OUT THEN WE WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO WARM BUT THERE MAY BE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AROUND SO WILL HOLD TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S FOR
MOST AREAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE LITTERED WITH WAVES TRAVERSING IT.
HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.75 INCHES. THESE FACTORS PROVIDE CONTINUED
SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH TO KEY IN
ON FOR A COHERENT FORCING MECHANISM GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT ON SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
HAVING DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A TROUGH
AXIS/FRONT EXTENDING INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MINNESOTA. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WITH IT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND HIGH
PLAINS WITH A WAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST
OVERTOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE AMPLIFYING LATE IN THE
WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS BUT THE SIGNAL
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVERALL. THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY OR SO. LOW POPS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOW CONTINUING TO FAVOR WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGES.
HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOVER AROUND 90 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ASSUMING CONVECTION OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS NOT AN ISSUE...WHICH
WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER HIGHS IF IT IS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY COOLER MID LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN KEEPING
HIGHS BACK IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 70S POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MDB
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
304 PM CDT
GAVE CONSIDERATION TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST AND FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA GIVEN THE RAINFALL OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL SET UP
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AREAS AND TIMING CAN BE
BETTER DEFINED. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS STILL MOVING FAIRLY STEADILY
BUT 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY. WILL PASS
THE CONCERN ABOUT A WATCH TO THE EVENING SHIFT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
* SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBILITY FOR A CONTINUED ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST PERIOD AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE TERMINALS REMAINS. DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY CLEAR GOOD FORCING MECHANISMS WITH PRECIP TRENDS LOW AT THIS
TIME WITH MODEL GUIDANCE NOT TOO MUCH OF ANY HELP. ALTHOUGH IN THE
NEAR TERM...CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOME FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL
FEATURES AS WELL AS SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH THESE FEATURES IN PLACE...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ALTHOUGH
DESPITE THE BOUNDARIES/MID LEVEL FEATURES...THE ORIENTATION AND
WEAKNESS OF THEM SHOULD ONLY PROVIDE ISOLATED TO AT BEST WIDELY
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP TO BE ON THE BRIEF SIDE. SO WITH THIS LOW COVERAGE/LOW
CONFIDENCE OF THIS AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING
TO POSSIBLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT...AS
ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POSSIBILITY. AS WAS
MENTIONED ABOVE...SEVERAL FEATURES COULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...HAVE ONCE
AGAIN LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF THE MORE SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP/CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
326 AM CDT
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
ALBERTA...THEN SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS MID LAKE
MONDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STRETCH WEST THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA...AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLOWLY SLIDE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT TIMES WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO 20-25KT...HOWEVER WITH THE VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER THE COOLER LAKE THIS MAY HOLD GUSTS
DOWN ARND 20KT.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON
FOG. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL HOVER OVER THE
LAKE...MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF WIND...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME. SO HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP MENTION AS PATCHY DENSE FOG.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...UNTIL
A PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THEN WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST/NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565
UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
103 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1027 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST CWA FIRING OFF LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS AND LIFT OFF WESTERN FRINGE OF
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER KY. THIS OCCURRING IN A VERY
HIGH 1.8 P/W AIRMASS AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT SO STORMS ARE SLOW
MOVERS AND POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HI-RES MODELS GRADUALLY PUSH
THIS AREA EAST AFFECTING MUCH OF SE IL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS LINE OF STORMS SHIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL
IA WHICH HAS SHOWN RECENT CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR SAT IMAGERY. IF
THIS HOLDS TOGETHER LIKELY WOULDNT REACH WESTERN CWA UNTIL
EVENING. HOWEVER OUTFLOW PUSHING AHEAD OF THIS ALREADY INTO
EASTERN IA EVIDENT ON KDVN REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY. AWIPS DISTANCE
SPEED TOOL BRINGS THIS INTO KNOX CO NEAR NOON AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR NEW CONVECTION POSSIBLY FIRING ALONG/BEHIND THIS AS HAS
OCCURRED IN CWA PAST TWO DAYS. AIRMASS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY WITH HIGH P/W WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE HEAVY RAIN REMAINS PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH BULK SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND
WOULD GIVE SOME ORGANIZATION FOR A LOW END SVR WIND AND HAIL
THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER REMAINDER OF CWA WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE WEST. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER
90S IN AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN AND WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 PEAK
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCTS UNTIL 02Z. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS COMPLEX
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO EASTERN IA MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL IL. LATEST
RUN OF HI-RES MODELS INDICATES THIS AFFECTING CENTRAL IL TERMINALS
BEGINNING AT 20Z AT KPIA AND EXITING KCMI AROUND 02Z. TEMPO VSBY
REDUCTIONS AND MVFR CEILINGS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ISOLATED
HEAVIER CELLS COULD BRING IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS FOR A BRIEF TIME. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST THIS
EVENING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER
CHANCES TO OUR WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER O2Z...THEN PICK UP TO
10-15 KTS AFTER 14Z/MON.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
PROBLEMATIC FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVENTS OF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SHOWN
HOW LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...AND ANOTHER SUCH BOUNDARY IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FORMED BY A DECAYING MCS OVER WISCONSIN
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. SOME WEAK BOUNDARIES ALSO DETECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LOOPING WESTWARD INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF SAINT
LOUIS. STORMS THAT FORM TODAY SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
AGAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND
700 MB WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS INDICATE THE STORMS WILL BE IN
NO HURRY TO MOVE ONCE THEY FORM. LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS SHOW
SOME DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE AS EARLY AS SUNRISE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN OUTFLOW...AND AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY. HAVE GONE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
POPS AS A RESULT WITH 30-40 PERCENT MOST AREAS TODAY.
OVERNIGHT PROBLEM THEN SHIFTS TO TRACK OF THE NEXT MCS WHICH
SHOULD FORM OVER IOWA THIS EVENING. NAM AND GFS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH SPREADING IT OVER MUCH OF ILLINOIS BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF IS SLOWER AND SHUNTS MOST
OF IT OFF TO OUR NORTH. LEANING TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AT
THE MOMENT WITH 40-50 PERCENT POPS FROM ABOUT I-55 NORTHWEST...
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE THIS
PARTICULAR MCS EXITS ON MONDAY...THE STORM TRACK FOR THE NEXT
ROUND SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS SOME UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...STILL LOOKING LIKE 90 DEGREES OR A BIT HIGHER
IS LIKELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PROVIDED THE STORMS DO NOT GET OUT
OF CONTROL. SLOW BUILD OF THE DEW POINTS TOWARD THE MID 70S WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER EACH DAY...WITH
MOST AREAS JUST ABOVE 100 FOR HEAT INDEX BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. MAIN STORM TRACK
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS FURTHER SOUTH AS THE OUTFLOWS FROM THE NIGHTLY MCS
SYSTEMS DROP INTO OUR AREA. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS THE END OF THE WEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING COOLER
CONDITIONS TO THE MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND.
THINK MOST OF THE RAIN THREAT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WEAK TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST MAY
COMPLICATE THIS THINKING.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1028 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1027 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST CWA FIRING OFF LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS AND LIFT OFF WESTERN FRINGE OF
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER KY. THIS OCCURRING IN A VERY
HIGH 1.8 P/W AIRMASS AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT SO STORMS ARE SLOW
MOVERS AND POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HI-RES MODELS GRADUALLY PUSH
THIS AREA EAST AFFECTING MUCH OF SE IL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS LINE OF STORMS SHIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL
IA WHICH HAS SHOWN RECENT CLOUD TOP COOLING ON IR SAT IMAGERY. IF
THIS HOLDS TOGETHER LIKELY WOULDNT REACH WESTERN CWA UNTIL
EVENING. HOWEVER OUTFLOW PUSHING AHEAD OF THIS ALREADY INTO
EASTERN IA EVIDENT ON KDVN REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY. AWIPS DISTANCE
SPEED TOOL BRINGS THIS INTO KNOX CO NEAR NOON AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR NEW CONVECTION POSSIBLY FIRING ALONG/BEHIND THIS AS HAS
OCCURRED IN CWA PAST TWO DAYS. AIRMASS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY WITH HIGH P/W WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE HEAVY RAIN REMAINS PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH BULK SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND
WOULD GIVE SOME ORGANIZATION FOR A LOW END SVR WIND AND HAIL
THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER REMAINDER OF CWA WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE WEST. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER
90S IN AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN AND WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 PEAK
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 532 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS PERIOD AND ITS AFFECT ON CIGS/VSBYS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. REMNANT CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT
MAX OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING TRYING TO KICK OFF SOME
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE AND SRN IL...SOUTH OF OUR
TAF SITES. EXPECT THAT AREA TO FILL IN LATER THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY
AFFECT KCMI AFTR 15Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE WEST LATER THIS AFTN AS STORMS ACRS IOWA RE-ITENSIFY JUST WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THEN HEAD EAST. SOME OF THE MODELS
TRY TO CURE THOSE STORMS MORE TO THE SE WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST MORE OF AN EASTWARD TRACK WHICH WOULD INCLUDE ALL OF OUR
SITES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL STILL INCLUDE
VCTS DURING THE TIME FRAME WE THINK THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
THRU...AND THEN ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
AND COVERAGE...WE WOULD THEN BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN A TIME FRAME FOR
A TEMPO GROUP.
AWAY FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSRA...WE CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
ANY TAF AREA THAT SEES THE PRECIP MAY EXPERIENCE SOME BRIEF MVFR AND
LOCALLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP. SFC WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.
SMITH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
PROBLEMATIC FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVENTS OF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SHOWN
HOW LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...AND ANOTHER SUCH BOUNDARY IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FORMED BY A DECAYING MCS OVER WISCONSIN
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. SOME WEAK BOUNDARIES ALSO DETECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LOOPING WESTWARD INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF SAINT
LOUIS. STORMS THAT FORM TODAY SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
AGAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND
700 MB WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS INDICATE THE STORMS WILL BE IN
NO HURRY TO MOVE ONCE THEY FORM. LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS SHOW
SOME DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE AS EARLY AS SUNRISE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN OUTFLOW...AND AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY. HAVE GONE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
POPS AS A RESULT WITH 30-40 PERCENT MOST AREAS TODAY.
OVERNIGHT PROBLEM THEN SHIFTS TO TRACK OF THE NEXT MCS WHICH
SHOULD FORM OVER IOWA THIS EVENING. NAM AND GFS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH SPREADING IT OVER MUCH OF ILLINOIS BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF IS SLOWER AND SHUNTS MOST
OF IT OFF TO OUR NORTH. LEANING TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AT
THE MOMENT WITH 40-50 PERCENT POPS FROM ABOUT I-55 NORTHWEST...
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE THIS
PARTICULAR MCS EXITS ON MONDAY...THE STORM TRACK FOR THE NEXT
ROUND SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS SOME UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...STILL LOOKING LIKE 90 DEGREES OR A BIT HIGHER
IS LIKELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PROVIDED THE STORMS DO NOT GET OUT
OF CONTROL. SLOW BUILD OF THE DEW POINTS TOWARD THE MID 70S WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER EACH DAY...WITH
MOST AREAS JUST ABOVE 100 FOR HEAT INDEX BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. MAIN STORM TRACK
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS FURTHER SOUTH AS THE OUTFLOWS FROM THE NIGHTLY MCS
SYSTEMS DROP INTO OUR AREA. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS THE END OF THE WEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING COOLER
CONDITIONS TO THE MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND.
THINK MOST OF THE RAIN THREAT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WEAK TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST MAY
COMPLICATE THIS THINKING.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
538 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
PROBLEMATIC FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVENTS OF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SHOWN
HOW LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...AND ANOTHER SUCH BOUNDARY IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FORMED BY A DECAYING MCS OVER WISCONSIN
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. SOME WEAK BOUNDARIES ALSO DETECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LOOPING WESTWARD INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF SAINT
LOUIS. STORMS THAT FORM TODAY SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
AGAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND
700 MB WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS INDICATE THE STORMS WILL BE IN
NO HURRY TO MOVE ONCE THEY FORM. LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS SHOW
SOME DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE AS EARLY AS SUNRISE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN OUTFLOW...AND AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY. HAVE GONE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
POPS AS A RESULT WITH 30-40 PERCENT MOST AREAS TODAY.
OVERNIGHT PROBLEM THEN SHIFTS TO TRACK OF THE NEXT MCS WHICH
SHOULD FORM OVER IOWA THIS EVENING. NAM AND GFS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH SPREADING IT OVER MUCH OF ILLINOIS BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF IS SLOWER AND SHUNTS MOST
OF IT OFF TO OUR NORTH. LEANING TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AT
THE MOMENT WITH 40-50 PERCENT POPS FROM ABOUT I-55 NORTHWEST...
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE THIS
PARTICULAR MCS EXITS ON MONDAY...THE STORM TRACK FOR THE NEXT
ROUND SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS SOME UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...STILL LOOKING LIKE 90 DEGREES OR A BIT HIGHER
IS LIKELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PROVIDED THE STORMS DO NOT GET OUT
OF CONTROL. SLOW BUILD OF THE DEW POINTS TOWARD THE MID 70S WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER EACH DAY...WITH
MOST AREAS JUST ABOVE 100 FOR HEAT INDEX BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. MAIN STORM TRACK
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS FURTHER SOUTH AS THE OUTFLOWS FROM THE NIGHTLY MCS
SYSTEMS DROP INTO OUR AREA. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS THE END OF THE WEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING COOLER
CONDITIONS TO THE MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND.
THINK MOST OF THE RAIN THREAT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WEAK TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST MAY
COMPLICATE THIS THINKING.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 532 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS PERIOD AND ITS AFFECT ON CIGS/VSBYS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. REMNANT CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT
MAX OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING TRYING TO KICK OFF SOME
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE AND SRN IL...SOUTH OF OUR
TAF SITES. EXPECT THAT AREA TO FILL IN LATER THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY
AFFECT KCMI AFTR 15Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS
THE WEST LATER THIS AFTN AS STORMS ACRS IOWA RE-ITENSIFY JUST WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THEN HEAD EAST. SOME OF THE MODELS
TRY TO CURE THOSE STORMS MORE TO THE SE WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SUGGEST MORE OF AN EASTWARD TRACK WHICH WOULD INCLUDE ALL OF OUR
SITES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL STILL INCLUDE
VCTS DURING THE TIME FRAME WE THINK THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
THRU...AND THEN ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
AND COVERAGE...WE WOULD THEN BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN A TIME FRAME FOR
A TEMPO GROUP.
AWAY FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSRA...WE CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
ANY TAF AREA THAT SEES THE PRECIP MAY EXPERIENCE SOME BRIEF MVFR AND
LOCALLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP. SFC WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.
SMITH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
231 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
PROBLEMATIC FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVENTS OF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SHOWN
HOW LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...AND ANOTHER SUCH BOUNDARY IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FORMED BY A DECAYING MCS OVER WISCONSIN
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. SOME WEAK BOUNDARIES ALSO DETECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LOOPING WESTWARD INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF SAINT
LOUIS. STORMS THAT FORM TODAY SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
AGAIN...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND
700 MB WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS INDICATE THE STORMS WILL BE IN
NO HURRY TO MOVE ONCE THEY FORM. LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS SHOW
SOME DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE AS EARLY AS SUNRISE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN OUTFLOW...AND AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY. HAVE GONE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
POPS AS A RESULT WITH 30-40 PERCENT MOST AREAS TODAY.
OVERNIGHT PROBLEM THEN SHIFTS TO TRACK OF THE NEXT MCS WHICH
SHOULD FORM OVER IOWA THIS EVENING. NAM AND GFS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH SPREADING IT OVER MUCH OF ILLINOIS BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF IS SLOWER AND SHUNTS MOST
OF IT OFF TO OUR NORTH. LEANING TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AT
THE MOMENT WITH 40-50 PERCENT POPS FROM ABOUT I-55 NORTHWEST...
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE THIS
PARTICULAR MCS EXITS ON MONDAY...THE STORM TRACK FOR THE NEXT
ROUND SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS SOME UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...STILL LOOKING LIKE 90 DEGREES OR A BIT HIGHER
IS LIKELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PROVIDED THE STORMS DO NOT GET OUT
OF CONTROL. SLOW BUILD OF THE DEW POINTS TOWARD THE MID 70S WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER EACH DAY...WITH
MOST AREAS JUST ABOVE 100 FOR HEAT INDEX BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. MAIN STORM TRACK
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS FURTHER SOUTH AS THE OUTFLOWS FROM THE NIGHTLY MCS
SYSTEMS DROP INTO OUR AREA. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS THE END OF THE WEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING COOLER
CONDITIONS TO THE MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND.
THINK MOST OF THE RAIN THREAT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WEAK TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST MAY
COMPLICATE THIS THINKING.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
SOME SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST AS DEC CMI AND BMI ALL DROPPING TEMPS
CLOSE TO DWPTS AND INCREASING CHANCE FOR AT LEAST MVFR VIS. HRRR
AND 4KM WRF BOTH SHOWING ENOUGH SCT SHOWERS TO START THE TREND FOR
TOMORROW STARTING IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. MAY NEED TO CONVERT TO
THUNDER SHOULD THE TREND CONTINUE. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WILL BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE FOR FG DEVELOPMENT. GETTING
GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW AND TAKING ON A BIT OF A SWRLY COMPONENT.
SCATTERING CLOUDS BACK OUT AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
635 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE JUNE STANDARDS WAS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, STRONG SURFACE TROUGH HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS, WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
ELEVATED CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
EAST OF DODGE CITY AND THEN MOVED EAST AND WEAKENED. ANOTHER BATCH
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED WEST OF A SURFACE DRYLINE IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF 3
PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
THE SHORT RANGE HRRR DOES INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AIDS IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. GIVEN THE FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WAS APPROACHING 40 KTS IN THIS SAME AREA, BUT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WAS VERY WEAK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND RESULTANT HIGH CLOUD BASES, THE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
QUITE A BIT OF OUTFLOW, AND THIS MAY LIMIT THE SEVERITY AS FAR AS
HAIL SIZE IS CONCERNED (SINCE THE STORMS MAY NOT REMAIN AS
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS LONG). BUT HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW ORGANIZED
THE STORMS WILL BE AND HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE RESULTANT
RAINFALL WOULD BE. BUT STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED TO 30-40% FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INCLUDING DODGE CITY, JETMORE AND LARNED
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND SURFACE BASED CAPE.
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY
LATE EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AS WELL AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING EASTWARD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 KTS EVEN LATE TONIGHT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE LOWER 70S AT DODGE CITY, HAYS AND PRATT,
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE EAST OF
DODGE CITY AND INTO THE PANHANDLES. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 103
TO 106F ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE DRYLINE WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL AIR HAS MOVED DOWNSLOPE AND WARMED ADIABATICALLY. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM WAKEENEY TO
DIGHTON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE LACK OF FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SINCE
THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST BY THE
TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS NOW
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE EXITING
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN ITS
WAKE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
FAIRLY SMALL GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. WITH
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES OVER WESTERN KANSAS WE SHOULD SEE
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO AROUND OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
SETTING UP INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE FRONT RANGE. GIVEN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW, SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BECOMES
EVEN MORE MERIDIONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE ALL BEEN TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION
THROUGH THE PAST FEW RUNS. THINK THAT THE CURRENT WEEK TWO OUTLOOK
SHOULD BE TRENDED BACK TO AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NOW
BUT BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES, WE COULD BE EVEN COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF
DODGE CITY INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF
PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE
FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AT THIS TIME WILL BASE TIMING
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR WHICH
INDICATES DODGE CITY AND HAYS WILL BE MAINLY IMPACTED FROM THESE
STORMS. DODGE CITY UNTIL 0030 AND HAYS BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. AFTER
THE STORMS PASS THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15KNOTS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 74 105 69 101 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 72 104 65 101 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 70 103 66 101 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 74 105 68 104 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 74 104 70 101 / 30 0 0 0
P28 74 100 74 101 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
062>066-075>081-085>090.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FINCH
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
109 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
ELEVATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WANE AS
EXPECTED ALONG THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A FRONT/OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN KS. DESPITE THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
OF THE HRRR...THERE REMAINS QUESTIONS REGARDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE EARLY ON GIVEN CAP STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES
SHOULD INCREASE BY MID-EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.
ML INSTABILITY UPWARDS OF 2500-3000 J/KG IN CONCERT WITH 25-40 KTS
OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO A SEVERE
MCS AS THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES.
ADK
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
PERSISTENT 315-320K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS DEPICTED BY RUC SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION
OF THE MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ROOTED AT AND ABOVE 700MB...SO AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ISN`T FANTASTIC FOR HAIL PRODUCTION...BUT
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES. AS
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES BETTER MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND 800-600MB
FLOW BACKS...ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
ADK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
LEE LOW WILL PERSIST NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER DURING THE PERIOD BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG A
THERMAL RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN OUR AREA ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY AIDED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM MCS IN NEBRASKA...WILL SINK INTO
NORTHWESTERN KS THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING. VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR AREA AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING. A FEW STORMS MAY
TRY TO GET GOING IN THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LATE THIS PM
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME. THE
MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST IN UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PM/EVE...AND MOVE
EASTWARD VIA CORFIDI PROPAGATION VECTORS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NEB AS AN MCS CLUSTER OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN CA EARLY THIS AM.
THIS COULD AFFECT OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES ESP NEAR/NORTH OF I-70.
STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THIS PM AND
TONIGHT WITH DCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THE PROGGED FRONTAL
SURFACE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...FEATURING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENING
OVER THE NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL REMAIN HOT WITH
HIGHS 100-103 IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AND UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS HOT WEATHER BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...TIED MAINLY TO WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING. NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT MANY PLACES WILL GET RAIN HOWEVER.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT WILL BE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR KSLN-KRSL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATER TONIGHT WHEN ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW REMNANT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GETTING INTO KHUT-KICT.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 95 74 95 76 / 20 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 97 74 97 76 / 10 20 10 10
NEWTON 94 74 95 75 / 20 10 10 0
ELDORADO 92 74 93 75 / 20 10 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 94 74 94 76 / 20 10 10 0
RUSSELL 98 70 99 75 / 30 40 10 10
GREAT BEND 98 71 99 75 / 20 30 10 10
SALINA 96 72 97 76 / 30 40 10 10
MCPHERSON 96 74 96 76 / 10 20 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 91 74 92 75 / 10 10 10 0
CHANUTE 91 74 91 75 / 10 10 10 0
IOLA 91 74 91 74 / 10 10 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 90 74 91 75 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
902 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
PERSISTENT 315-320K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS DEPICTED BY RUC SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION
OF THE MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ROOTED AT AND ABOVE 700MB...SO AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ISN`T FANTASTIC FOR HAIL PRODUCTION...BUT
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES. AS
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES BETTER MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND 800-600MB
FLOW BACKS...ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
ADK
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
SCT -SHRA THAT DEVELOPED BETWEEN I-135 & I-35 ~600AM HAVE SLOWLY BUT
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED WITH ISOLD -TSRA BEGINNING TO APPEAR OVER NW
BUTLER COUNTY AT 7AM. HAVE UPDATED ALL POP-RELATED GRIDS TO DEPICT
THIS TREND. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH ANTICIPATED COVERAGE & INTENSITY OF TSRA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
LEE LOW WILL PERSIST NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER DURING THE PERIOD BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG A
THERMAL RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN OUR AREA ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY AIDED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM MCS IN NEBRASKA...WILL SINK INTO
NORTHWESTERN KS THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING. VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR AREA AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING. A FEW STORMS MAY
TRY TO GET GOING IN THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LATE THIS PM
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME. THE
MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST IN UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PM/EVE...AND MOVE
EASTWARD VIA CORFIDI PROPAGATION VECTORS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NEB AS AN MCS CLUSTER OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN CA EARLY THIS AM.
THIS COULD AFFECT OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES ESP NEAR/NORTH OF I-70.
STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THIS PM AND
TONIGHT WITH DCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THE PROGGED FRONTAL
SURFACE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...FEATURING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENING
OVER THE NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL REMAIN HOT WITH
HIGHS 100-103 IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AND UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS HOT WEATHER BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...TIED MAINLY TO WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING. NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT MANY PLACES WILL GET RAIN HOWEVER.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
DRAWING IMMEDIATE ATTENTION IS SCT -TSRA THAT ARE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
BETWEEN I-135 & I-35 THIS MORNING. --RA OCCURRED AT KICT 625-640AM BUT
HAVE MOVED NE OF THE TERMINAL. STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A "VCTS"
TIL 15Z. S WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY OVER MOST AREAS LATE THIS
MORNING (KRSL THE EXCEPTION) AS WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS IN NE-SW MANNER
FROM ERN NEBRASKA TO SW KS. FRONT TO BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASED TSRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY SPREADING W/SW FROM NRN TO
SW KS. HAVE KEPT "VCTS" INTACT FOR ALL AFFECTED TERMINALS BUT DETAILS
WILL BE PROVIDED...ESPECIALLY FROM 24/00Z ISSUANCE ONWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 95 74 95 76 / 10 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 97 74 97 76 / 10 20 10 10
NEWTON 94 74 95 75 / 20 10 10 0
ELDORADO 92 74 93 75 / 20 10 10 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 94 74 94 76 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELL 98 70 99 75 / 20 40 10 10
GREAT BEND 98 71 99 75 / 10 30 10 10
SALINA 96 72 97 76 / 30 40 10 10
MCPHERSON 96 74 96 76 / 20 20 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 91 74 92 75 / 10 10 10 0
CHANUTE 91 74 91 75 / 10 10 10 0
IOLA 91 74 91 74 / 10 10 10 0
PARSONS-KPPF 90 74 91 75 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND HOT AND WINDY WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE SUN AFTERNOON-NIGHT
OVER CENTRAL KS AND AGAIN THU-THU NIGHT AREAWIDE...AND A COOLING
TREND BY LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD INITIATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE. LAST
3 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE ALLUDED TO THIS. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD GET INTO RUSSELL AND
BARTON COUNTIES BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...SUSPECT WEAK
FORCING IN CONCERT WITH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/INCREASING CINH
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE REACHING WESTERN
CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AFFECT NEBRASKA AND
POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN KS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH CENTRAL KS SUNDAY. THE INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AT PEAK HEATING COULD ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO
FIRE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF A GREAT BEND-SALINA LINE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK
FORCING AT PEAK HEATING...THINKING THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NE
AND PROPAGATING EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER DARK. GIVEN
NAM`S PLACEMENT OF FRONT...THINKING LOCATIONS NORTH OF GREAT
BEND-SALINA HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG/SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CARRYING AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
FRONT LIFTS NORTH FOR MON-TUE...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING DOWN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUING THE WINDY AND HOT WEATHER.
WINDS WILL LIKELY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN SUN
AND MON...AND POSSIBLY TUE AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PER THE
GFS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORMS GETTING INTO
RUSSELL/BARTON COUNTIES TUE EVENING...BUT ONCE AGAIN SUSPECT BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN EARNEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WILL
EVENTUALLY ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL DEVELOP INTO AN EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE RESULT FOR KANSAS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF
THE BREEZY AND HOT WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER OR LESS HOT CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LATEST PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES/THERMAL
FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT HOTTER MAXS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MAXS AT OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-135. THE GFS LATEST FRONTAL TIMING
COULD ALLOW FOR A VERY HOT BUBBLE OF COMPRESSED AIR ON THE
WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SO FOR NOW HAVE MADE A SLIGHT UP-TWEAK TO THE LOADED
INITIALIZATION WHICH IS ALSO ABOVE GMOS VALUES. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THOUGH
FORCING REMAINS RATHER WEAK AND LIKELY TIED TO FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WITH CARRYOVER INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE AREA.
FURTHER EAST...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 25 KNOTS GUSTING INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE. THIS TROUGH
AXIS MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IMPACTING KRSL AND POSSIBLE KSLN DURING
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS RACES EASTWARD AFTER 12-14Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 75 96 74 95 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 75 98 74 97 / 10 10 20 10
NEWTON 74 96 74 95 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 74 93 74 93 / 0 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 75 94 74 94 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELL 75 99 70 98 / 10 20 40 10
GREAT BEND 75 100 71 98 / 10 10 30 10
SALINA 75 98 72 97 / 10 10 40 10
MCPHERSON 75 98 74 96 / 10 10 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 75 92 74 92 / 10 0 10 10
CHANUTE 74 92 74 91 / 10 0 10 10
IOLA 74 92 74 91 / 10 0 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 75 92 74 91 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE POPS AND FINE TUNE TEMPS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED ZFP AND HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. ISOLATED THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PERCOLATING
WEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT STERLING TO HARLAN. A FEW OF THESE
PULSING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG...HOWEVER THEY HAVE STAYED
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. THE HRRR AND EXTRAPOLATION INDICATE ALL THE
STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE STORMS HAVE RECEIVED AND MUCH AS 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN...HOWEVER THE STORMS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY MISSING THE RAIN GAGES OUT
THERE. WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA WHEN ALL THE CO-OPS REPORT IN THE
MORNING. THE REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 812 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING STRONG
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS SOME WARMING THE
MID LEVELS WHICH IS HELPING TO CAP THEM OFF. THE STRONGEST STORMS
THIS EVENING WERE OVER KNOX AND WAYNE COUNTIES. THEY NEVER QUITE GOT
TO THE POINT WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS NEEDED AND THEY
WERE NOT CLOSE TO THE CRITERIA WE USED TO ISSUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS. EXPECT STORMS TO DIE OFF BY 10 PM. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
APPEARS MID LEVEL CAPPING IS JUST A BIT TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME AND IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DAMPENING ACTIVITY THUS FAR. AS A RESULT PULLED BACK
SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ALOFT A WEAK
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CAPPING SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. SO CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OR
SCATTERED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS. DID NUDGE THEM TOWARDS A
BLEND OF LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH A PERSISTENT PATTERN IN PLACE
THERE SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH VARIATION IN DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE
WEATHER...A TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TIME FRAME THE MAIN WESTERLIES SHOULD
BE TO OUR NORTH...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED WEST/EAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. WITHOUT A CRUSHING RIDGE OVER US AND WITH A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...WILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP AT TIMES. IT SHOULD BE LARGELY A DIURNAL
TREND LINKED WITH PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...DUE TO LACK OF FEATURES TO
FOCUS CONVECTION...POPS WILL BE LOW...GENERALLY 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON...AND DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT.
LATE IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD MUCH
STRONGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...ALLOWING TROUGHING TO DEVELOP IN
THE EAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING INTO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH
WILL THEN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ALBEIT FAIRLY WEAK...IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WITH
THIS. MODELS THEN SHOW THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO
DEEPEN...AND BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL RAISE POPS TO 50 PERCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO HOLDS IN FUTURE RUNS...
POPS WILL LIKELY GO HIGHER. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS GENERATE PRECIP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE GFS
DOES SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...AND GFS MEX MOS HAS 50
PERCENT POPS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK
ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP...AND THE ECMWF IS LIGHTER WITH ITS
QPF FIELD THAN THE GFS. WILL UNDERCUT THE MOS AND GO WITH 30 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THERE WILL LIKELY BE TIMES OF MVFR OR LOWER VIS AND
CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM FOG...ESPECIALLY AT LOZ WHERE A BIT OF
RAIN AGAIN FELL. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID DAY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO THREATEN TO REDUCE VIS
AND CIGS TO MVFR...BUT MOST SITES WILL PROBABLY STAY STORM AND
PROBLEM FREE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1250 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE POPS AND FINE TUNE TEMPS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED ZFP AND HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. ISOLATED THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PERCOLATING
WEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT STERLING TO HARLAN. A FEW OF THESE
PULSING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG...HOWEVER THEY HAVE STAYED
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. THE HRRR AND EXTRAPOLATION INDICATE ALL THE
STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE STORMS HAVE RECEIVED AND MUCH AS 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN...HOWEVER THE STORMS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY MISSING THE RAIN GAGES OUT
THERE. WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA WHEN ALL THE CO-OPS REPORT IN THE
MORNING. THE REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 812 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING STRONG
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS SOME WARMING THE
MID LEVELS WHICH IS HELPING TO CAP THEM OFF. THE STRONGEST STORMS
THIS EVENING WERE OVER KNOX AND WAYNE COUNTIES. THEY NEVER QUITE GOT
TO THE POINT WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS NEEDED AND THEY
WERE NOT CLOSE TO THE CRITERIA WE USED TO ISSUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS. EXPECT STORMS TO DIE OFF BY 10 PM. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
APPEARS MID LEVEL CAPPING IS JUST A BIT TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME AND IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DAMPENING ACTIVITY THUS FAR. AS A RESULT PULLED BACK
SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ALOFT A WEAK
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CAPPING SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD. SO CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OR
SCATTERED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS. DID NUDGE THEM TOWARDS A
BLEND OF LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH A PERSISTENT PATTERN IN PLACE
THERE SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH VARIATION IN DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE
WEATHER...A TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TIME FRAME THE MAIN WESTERLIES SHOULD
BE TO OUR NORTH...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED WEST/EAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. WITHOUT A CRUSHING RIDGE OVER US AND WITH A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...WILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP AT TIMES. IT SHOULD BE LARGELY A DIURNAL
TREND LINKED WITH PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...DUE TO LACK OF FEATURES TO
FOCUS CONVECTION...POPS WILL BE LOW...GENERALLY 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON...AND DROPPING OFF AT NIGHT.
LATE IN THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD MUCH
STRONGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...ALLOWING TROUGHING TO DEVELOP IN
THE EAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING INTO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH
WILL THEN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ALBEIT FAIRLY WEAK...IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WITH
THIS. MODELS THEN SHOW THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO
DEEPEN...AND BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL RAISE POPS TO 50 PERCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO HOLDS IN FUTURE RUNS...
POPS WILL LIKELY GO HIGHER. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS GENERATE PRECIP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE GFS
DOES SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...AND GFS MEX MOS HAS 50
PERCENT POPS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK
ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP...AND THE ECMWF IS LIGHTER WITH ITS
QPF FIELD THAN THE GFS. WILL UNDERCUT THE MOS AND GO WITH 30 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DYE DOWN BY 2Z. EXPECT SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY
FOG IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOCATIONS THAT
SAY RAINFALL TODAY. LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST. WILL ALL THINGS BEING PRETTY MUCH EQUAL DECIDED TO LEAN
HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE FOR TIMING OF LIGHT FOG AT EACH TERMINAL.
LOOKING FOR DIURNAL ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BEGIN FIRING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
342 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO POOL SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT
TO OUR NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
REGION. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ONGOING
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE
FORMED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL COALESCE AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A COLD POOL DEVELOPS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM A LOOSE MULTICELL LINE OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO SW MAINE...MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE MORE INSOLATION HAS
OCCURRED AND SURFACE-BASED CAPES OF 1200-1500 J/KG RESIDE.
THE BIGGEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
TRAINING...AMPLE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND PRECIPITATION LOADING
WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF WET DOWNBURSTS. FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDE THE LACK OF ANY REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...AS WELL AS A RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL.
NEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW MERGERS AND IN AREAS
OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
GYX SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING HAS 1.72 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WHICH IS CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE END OF JUNE. SATURATED AND WARM CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WARM RAIN PROCESSES. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL VARY WIDELY DEPENDING ON WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
TRAINING CELLS AND ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP TO LOCALLY
BOOST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER ISOLATED AREAS...PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES.
OTHER LOCATIONS MAY SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...AND AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN SATURATED...LEADING TO PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA TOMORROW WITH NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH
INITIALLY...AND THIS ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND 90S. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S MAKING FOR AN UNPLEASANTLY MUGGY DAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH
THE LOWER 90S...STAYING SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOISTURE
WILL BE WRUNG OUT ONCE AGAIN IN THE FORM OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT A THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP ANYWHERE WITH BROAD WEAK
FORCING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +18C COULD LEAD TO HIGHS
REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S... IT WILL BE HUMID. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL TOP 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...
WITH SOME READINGS APPROACHING 95. ALTHOUGH THIS IS SHORT OF
ADVISORY LEVELS... IT WILL STILL BE NOTICEABLY HOT AND HUMID.
WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER COMES THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY... ADDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
NAM IS SHOWING STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAN THE GFS...
AND IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS AS DESCRIBED BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN THEIR MORNING OUTLOOK INDICATING A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
THREAT RATHER THAN A TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION... THE HUMID AIR
WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
WITH HIGH DEW POINTS EXPECTED... DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL
OFF MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S... IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES
TO FALL MUCH BELOW 70 FOR MOST AREAS IN THE FEW HOURS OF NIGHT
THAT EXIST THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT... RAISED LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM GUIDANCE VALUES AS MAV/MET TEND TO BE TOO COLD
ON HUMID NIGHTS SUCH AS THIS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AND WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO PROVIDE MORE CONFIDENCE VIA HIGHER POP VALUES. GFS AND CMC BOTH
SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK RESULTING FROM CONVECTION. GFS
DEVELOPS A CLOSED 999 MB SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE CMC IS SIMILAR BUT NOT AS STRONG. THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS UNLIKELY AND WAS DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF WHICH
SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... BRINGING
COOLER AIR DOWN FROM THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND EASTERN
CANADA. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 4C WEDNESDAY AS COMPARED TO
TUESDAY AND MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER...
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR DEEP MIXING ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE... ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR ONE MORE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING AN
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. ECMWF SHOWS A
PRONOUNCED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP A COOL
MARINE AIR MASS IN PLACE. WATER TEMPERATURES OFF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE
COAST AREA IN THE LOW 60S... WHILE WATER TEMPERATURES OFF THE
MIDCOAST OF MAINE ARE IN THE LOW 50S. EVEN THE GFS SHOWS A SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THURSDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP MUCH OF MAINE COOL.
AS A RESULT... HAVE GONE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS MAINE TO THE UPPER 70S FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THIS WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF MOS AND HPC.
ALL MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT... SPREADING BROAD SCALE
LIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND IN COMBINATION WITH AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AS A RESULT... INCREASED POPS INTO THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT
RANGE TO REFLECT THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
UNFORTUNATELY... THIS BROAD SCALE TROUGH LINGERS TO THE WEST OF
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND... LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
THE FAVORABLE AREA FOR RISING MOTION AND PRECIPITATION. TIMING OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES VARIES AMONG THE MODELS AND IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THIS
FAR OUT. AS A RESULT... HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR SKIES IN VCTS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPING. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WILL KEEP PERIODS
OF LIFR AND VLIFR CEILINGS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. WEST WINDS
ON MONDAY MAY GUST INTO THE LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM...OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS... AS WELL AS AFTERNOON HAZE AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR IN FOR WEDNESDAY. AN
ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY COULD BRING IFR CONDITIONS PERHAPS
WORSENING TO LIFR BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN OVERDOING WAVE HEIGHTS. THAT SAID A FEW 5-6 FOOTERS MAY
DEVELOP ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 25 KTS WITH
A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM...EXPECT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT. GFS MODEL
IS FORECASTING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW TO CROSS INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE DUE
TO CONVECTION WITHIN THE MODEL. AS A RESULT... WAVE HEIGHTS
GENERATED BY THE WNA WAVE MODEL WERE TOO HIGH ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MAINE FOR THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING BY FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PORTLAND HIGH TIDE OF 11.8 FT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AT 11:41 PM.
FLOOD STAGE AT PORTLAND IS 12.0 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME WSW TONIGHT
AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THIS IS NOT A FAVORED DIRECTION
FOR COASTAL EROSION OR SPLASH OVER.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
HANES/KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
956 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO POOL SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT
TO OUR NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
REGION. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL LOWER OUR TEMPERATURES...BUT INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...THE LATEST GYX SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING HAS 1.72
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES AND HAVE INCREASED QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. TRAINING AND ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL
HELP BOOST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER ISOLATED AREAS.
MESO MODELS LIKE THE HRRR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
COAST AND SOUTHERN NH. MODELS INITIATE CONVECTION AGAIN BY
ROUGHLY 1 PM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE SPREADING THEM
DOWNSTREAM. AN AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
FORM A LOOSE MULTICELL LINE OVER SOUTHERN NH AND INTO SW MAINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED MUCH OF NH TO
RECEIVE INSOLATION. IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES DEVELOP...IT WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ATTM ONE S/WV IS SHEARING OUT TO THE
E...WHILE A SECOND ENTERS THE WNW FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
CONVECTION TO OUR W. THE LEAD S/WV IS DRIVING SCT CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...PERCOLATING ON THE EDGE OF BUILDING HEAT
DOME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING...AS
TRAILING S/WV INDUCES SOME FASTER MID LVL FLOW FROM THE WSW.
AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT ALREADY...SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ARE APPEARING ON THE SRN EDGE OF THESE SHRA/TSTMS. THIS
WILL ALLOW STRONG INSOLATION TO TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD QUICKLY RISE THRU THE 70S...REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN FAR
SRN ZONES. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS FARTHER E
WILL LIMIT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. CRUDELY
TAKING THE 23/00Z GYX SOUNDING AND MODIFYING FOR EXPECTED
AFTERNOON TEMP AND DEW POINT FOR THE FOOTHILLS REGION...ABOUT
83/65...YIELDS ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG CAPE. WITH NO STRONG ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES TAKING PLACE THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
IS AGGRESSIVELY JUICING THE LLVLS WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS AND PRODUCING CAPE WELL OVER 2000 J/KG. NOT EXPECTED THIS
KIND OF INSTABILITY TODAY...BUT RATHER 1000 TO 1500...WHICH IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR STRONGER STORMS.
HOWEVER...WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT H5 THERE LACKS A DISCERNIBLE
TRIGGER TO SPARK TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY WE/LL HAVE TO RELY
ON STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM S/WV TO
SEE IF THIS SUBTLE FEATURE CAN ASSIST IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
DEVELOP OCCURS TODAY IN VICINITY OF THE NRN HUDSON AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. THIS ACTIVITY SPILLS OVER INTO WRN ZONES BY MID
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POP IN THE SCT TO ISOLATED
RANGE...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
PWATS PUSHING 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL POINT TOWARDS HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND
FIELD ALOFT...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE AOB 20 KT FROM THE WNW. SLOW
STORM MOTION COULD YIELD SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF STORMS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FAIL TO OVERLAP WELL
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...MULTICELL CLUSTERS...STORM MERGERS...AND PRECIP LOADING
IN THE COLUMN COULD LEAD TO A FEW GUSTY STORMS AND AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUST. STRONG HEATING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING
0-3 KM LAPSE RATES UP TOWARDS 8 C/KM. THIS IS MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE
OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS. FREEZING LVLS ARE HIGH...BUT SUFFICIENT CAPE
EXISTS IN THE -10 TO -30 C LAYER TO GET SOME SUB SEVERE HAIL.
CONVECTION WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...AS LACK OF STRONG
FORCING WILL LEAVE STORMS DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
REMAINING SHRA/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA
COULD LINGER ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP IN THE FAR NRN ZONES AGAIN
INTO THE MORNING. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THEN CLEAR
OUT.
ANOTHER HAZY...HOT...AND HUMID DAY WILL MEAN ANOTHER AFTERNOON
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. DIURNAL SHRA/TSTMS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN
DUE TO STRONG INSOLATION...BUT AGAIN THERE LACKS FORCING
OTHERWISE. MORE NOTICEABLE MAY BE TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S WITH
DEW POINTS PUSHING 70. THIS WILL MEAN APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
90S...AND THE THREAT OF HEAT STRESS FOR ANYONE WITH ACTIVITIES
OUTDOORS DURING MIDDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM TOWN
TO TOWN. A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE MUGGY AIR INTO THE REGION. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT ABOVE 90
DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +18C.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS ON MONDAY WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS CAPES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS VARY ON WHETHER A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN ANY CASE...WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AFTER A
WARM START.
00Z MODEL SUITE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT BY THURSDAY AS LARGE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS ALLOWS A SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE CHILLY BRINK OF THE GULF OF MAINE AND THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...DROPPING OUR TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION AND ALSO
INCREASING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. A
WET...SHOWERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE VFR HZ. SCT SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY KHIE...KLEB...AND KCON. ANY
SHRA/TSTM COULD BRING MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. SCT TO ISOLATED TSTMS ON MON COULD BRING
MORE LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
LONG TERM...
EXPECT NOCTURNAL FOG TO BE THE ONLY MAJOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FOR THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED GUST NEAR 25 KT OR WAVE
NEAR 5 FT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
LEGRO/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1121 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
PARTY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY IN
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 UPDATE...
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES HAVE A
LOT OF COMPETING PARAMETERS TODAY. BIG PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS OVER
VA WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. STILL NOT A LOT OF DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREA SOUNDINGS SUGGUESTING THAT INSTABILITY WILL
PEAK BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE LATER TODAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND DRY AIR MIXES IN. OVERALL STILL THINK
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ESPECIALLY
OVER TERRAIN. HRRR STILL SUGGESTING THAT WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE. MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.
MANNING
PREVIOUS...
H5 RIDGE AXIS FINALLY PUSHING ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
WEAK UPPER LOW TN/KY SLIDES NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH UPPER LOW
WEAKENING...A LITTLE COLDER TEMPERATURES (-10 TO -12C) WILL
TRANSLATE WITH LOW. DEW POINTS EXPECTED AT LEAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE COMBINATION OF A LITTLE STEEPER MID-TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES (MORE INSTABILITY) AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM. WILL CARRY A 30 POP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AREA OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITABLE WATER (ALMOST 2 INCHES)
LOCATED VIRGINIA PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, NOT SURE THIS
REALLY JUICY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH AND WEST. BEST
MOISTURE FLUX AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WOULD GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW
AT BEST AND SUGGEST THAT BEST PW/S MIGHT PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST AS
REMNANT LOW MOVES NORTH EAST. HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY CONVECTION AND RESPECTABLE MOISTURE COULD STILL
GET SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOUR IN ANY CONVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RATHER FLAT UPPER H5 FLOW INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER WEAK IMPULSE IN
UPPER FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING ADDING INSTABILITY...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON TUESDAY...A LITTLE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST IN A GENERAL ZONAL H5 FLOW. THE ADDED
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LIFT COMBINED WITH ADDED INSTABILITY AND A TAD BIT
MORE SHEAR SHOULD GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND WENT WITH NEAR 50 POP FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NAM A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS IMPULSE THAN GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS
EXHIBIT A BROADER PRECIP FIELD WITH APPROACH OF THIS UPPER SHORT
WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SHIFT FROM A ZONAL PATTERN TO A
MORE AMPLIFIED ONE AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE SERIES OF
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW DIFFERENTLY. WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE...KEPT POPS MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL BOTH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE
THE BLANKET CHANCE POPS...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...ALL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF EAST AND A CUTOFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY
WOBBLES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. WHILE THIS LOW COULD LEAD TO
A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. THUS...WILL LEAVE THE
THUNDER MENTION OUT OF ANY TAF SITES FOR NOW. DIURNAL CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10KTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME EARLY MORNING FOG
AS HUMIDITY INCREASES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SE
SASK INTO SRN MANITOBA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO ERN ND
AND NW MN. AT THE SFC...A 999MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE NW CORNER
OF MN WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. CLEARING
AND AFTERNOON HEATING HAS PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER WRN
UPPER MI RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WERE DEVELOPING OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW UPPER MI
CLOSEST TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ND/MN SHRTWV.
EXPECT THAT SCT SHRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BACK THROUGH WRN
UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA...PER HIGH RES MODELS. INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 30-35 KT 0-6KM
SHEAR AND 20-25 KT 0-1KM SHEAR COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN HAZARD
GIVEN DCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. EXPECT THAT THE
SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY 21Z-23Z AND THEN
DISSIPATE AND WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING AS THE SHRA/TSRA MOVE TOWARD
THE ERN CWA...AWAY FROM THE THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND THE SHRTWV
FORCING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO THE DRY SLOT AND
STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP MINIMIZE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. WITH SUNSHINE AND 850 MB TEMPS STILL AROUND 15C...TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGER SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEKEND THOUGH DETAILS AND SPECIFICS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. TO START ON
MONDAY EVENING...FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE HEADING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LEAVING RIDGING IN ITS WAKE OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS. SFC FRONT AND POOL OF SFC-H85 MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
DRIVES SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN GENERALLY
QUIET AND LESS HUMID WEATHER INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE HERE...WHILE THE GEM-NH AND THE UKMET DO NOT PUSH WARM FRONT
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OUT OF CWA. WILL LEAN
ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IDEA WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY WPC HAND
DRAWN SFC MAP.
WITH WARM FRONT AND EDGE OF SFC BASED-MUCAPE MOST LIKELY STILL SOUTH
BY TUESDAY AFTN...WONDER IF MOST AREAS STAY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY
SHRA/TSRA THAT FORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF CWA PER H85-H3 THICKNESSES AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS AND EVEN THE MEAN LAYER WIND. INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF AND
GFS STILL HAVE SHORTWAVE CRASHING THROUGH TOP EDGE OF LARGER SCALE
RIDGING. WAVE MAY AID IN BRINGING AT LEAST H85 FRONT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH THAT SOUTHERN TIER COULD BE AFFECTED BY SHRA/TSRA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE CWA COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY. GFS
STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE SO MUCH THAT IT PUSHES SFC WARM FRONT INTO
CWA ON WEDNESDAY. PV ANAMOLY THAT GFS CARRIES IN HERE ON WEDNESDAY
TRACKS BACK TO SOUTH EDGE OF STRONG UPR LOW OVER THE ALLUTIANS THIS
MORNING. WAVE LOOKS PRETTY VIGOROUS ON WV LOOP. ECMWF HAS BETTER
TRACK RECORD IN THE EXTENDED...BUT WILL BLEND SOME OF THE GFS IDEA
IN AS WELL SINCE IT SEEMS TO HAVE SOME MERIT.
TROUGH AND HIGHER SFC-H85 DWPNTS PUSH THROUGH AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATER ON THURSDAY. GFS QUICKER AND STRONGER
AS WELL AS FARTHER SOUTH WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS UPR
LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE SEPARATION BTWN THE
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY AND THAT STRONGER TROUGHING. GFS HAS TENDENCY TO
BRING SYSTEMS IN TOO QUICKLY AND ITS SOLUTION VERIFYING AT 12Z
THURSDAY HAS SHOWN TOO MUCH INCONSISTENCY TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN IT AT
THIS POINT. ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT SHAPRER WITH TROUGH BUT OVERALL
HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT THAN GFS. WILL PREFER THAT IDEA FOR
NOW. RESULT WILL BE SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAYBE EVEN NMRS FOR A TIME
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AXIS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY AS AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION IS STILL A BIT UNSTABLE /MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG/ WHILE WNW
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON SOUTH EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WINDS COULD RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AS WELL.
ALWAYS HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT AS THAT PATTERN WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS ONE THAT CAN RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES ON FRIDAY WITH A BIT COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER. NO TSRA EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/STEEPER
LAPSE RATES SETUP FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
COULD BE SHRA AT TIMES THOUGH AS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES ROTATE
AROUND PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY BE KIND
OF BLUSTERY ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND WITH ONSHORE WINDS SWIM RISK MAY
BE HIGHER TO START THE WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES OF SHRA MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPS SOME AREAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY
END UP MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPS BOUNCING UP AT LEAST
TOWARD NORMAL. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN WNW FLOW APPEARS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
SO HAVE POPS MOVING BACK IN FOR LATE SUNDAY. NO REAL WARM TEMPERATURES
SEEN NEXT WEEKEND OR EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING ALOFT
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES KEEPS WARM AIR RESTRICTED TO
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
CMX/SAW WHICH WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE WAS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY TSRA. AFTER A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN KEEPING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 25 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. MAIN
HAZARD WILL BE SCT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FOG. DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-
263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
119 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
ALBERTA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES
RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
THE MOST PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH WRN
WYOMING. WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS PREVAILED NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SE MN THROUGH CNTRL WI. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPS OVER ERN IA HAD CLIMBED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S.
TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST...THE SW FLOW
PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT TO PUSH TO THE NORTH.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT THIS EVENING.....UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/POSITION OF
ANY UPSTREAM SHRTWVS AND THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION IS
HIGH. WITH THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE/LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
SHIFTING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE CWA...POPS INCREASE
INTO THE WRN CWA AND ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN BUT ARE STILL LIMITED TO
CHANCE CATEGORY. SINCE MUCAPE VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE...ONLY ISOLD TSRA WERE MENTIONED. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE GREATER
INSTABILITY.
SUNDAY...AS THE WY SHRTWV LIFTS INTO THE NRN PLAINS A STRENGTHENING
SFC LOW OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING INCREASING SRLY FLOW INTO
THE WRN LAKES AND SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF UPPER
MI. HOWEVER...CINH WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH 700 MB TEMPS INTO THE
10C-12C RANGE. SO...TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S AND CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE
CNTRL AND EAST. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY
SUN INTO SUN AFTERNOON AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK
SHRTWV/IMPULSE COULD BRUSH MAINLY THE WRN CWA. MLCAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE
30-40 KT RANGE COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT INDICATES A DEEPER TROUGH LIFTING
INTO SCNTRL CANADA WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER OHIO VALLEY. SFC WARM
FRONT SHOULD BE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. H85 FRONT ALSO
SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF CWA. FORECAST WILL ASSUME THAT IS GOING TO
BE THE CASE AS LAST COUPLE DAYS...SFC WARM FRONT HAS REMAINED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST THANKS TO TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
COOLED OUTFLOW. DO THINK FRONT WILL HAVE BETTER SHOT OF MAKING IT
NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALOFT. BASED ON INITIAL FOCUS REGION FOR
SHRA/TSRA AND H7 WINDS/FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND
850-300MB THICKNESS...EXPECT CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MAINLY BE OVER WESTERN THIRD OF UPR MICHIGAN AND ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR ON EDGE OF H7 CAPPING TIED TO ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/.
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...BASED ON AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE WEST. NAM/ECMWF FITS THIS
EXPECTATION THE BEST WHILE THE GEM-NH AND GFS SEEM TO SHOW QPF TOO
FAR EAST INTO THE CAPPED AREA. THOSE IDEAS WOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCE
OF VERIFYING IF THE SFC-H85 FRONTS END UP FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST.
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ON MONDAY LIKELY HIGHEST DURING THE MORNING
AND HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON EDGE OF CAPPING THAT WILL BE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AT THAT TIME AS H85 WINDS VEER
MORE WESTERLY. WILD CARD FOR MONDAY IS IF TAIL OF SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR ARE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER OTHER SHRA/TSRA ON EDGE OF CAPPING AND
MUCAPE GRADIENT JUST UPSTREAM AND/OR JUST SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. A
PRETTY LOW CHANCE OF THIS...BUT IF IT WOULD HAPPEN THEN THERE IS
POSSIBILITY OF SHRA/TSRA COMPLEX IMPACTING PARTS OF CWA ON MONDAY
MORNING. INTO MONDAY AFTN...WIND FIELD BECOMES GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WHICH OPENS DOOR FOR LK BREEZE SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY CNTRL
UPR MICHIGAN /MQT-ESC-P53/. KEPT A SMALL POP IN THERE. WOULD BE VERY
LOW CHANCE IF THERE IS MORE FORMIDABLE CONVECTION AROUND MONDAY
MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE LATER IN THE DAY WOULD LIKELY PUT CAP ON ANY
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA. HIGHS ON MONDAY COULD SURGE INTO THE LOW-MID
80S OVER SCNTRL BUT SHOULD STAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS HUMID LATER MONDAY AFTN OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW IN AFTN MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG IN
IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS EAST OF MQT.
GOING TO GO FOR PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF
TUESDAY AS WELL. SFC-H85 FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA
LOOK TO SETTLE WELL TO SOUTH OF CWA MONDAY EVENING. OTHER THAN
WEAKER SHORTWAVES TRAVELLING THROUGH GENERAL FLAT RIDGING
ALOFT...THERE REALLY IS NOT A STRONG ENOUGH FEATURE TO BRING THE
FRONTS BACK TO THE NORTH. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO STAY OVER SOUTHERN
HALF OF MN AND WI MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PERHAPS ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA MAKE INTO TO THE WI BORDER LATE TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING AS
SFC-H85 FRONTS TRY TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OUT AHEAD OF LARGER
SCALE TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAYBE THIS NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA REMAINS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN SINCE SFC FRONT/MORE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY
STAYS TO THE SOUTH. TOUGH TO SAY REALLY AS AT THE SAME TIME...H7
TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE UPWARD AS CAPPING BUILDS JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF UPR MICHIGAN. KEPT POPS CHANCE ALL AREAS...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
CONFINED TO SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. KEPT SIMILAR IDEA GOING
WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG WI BORDER INTO SCNTRL UPR
MICHIGAN. WENT WITH MORE BROADBRUSHED APPROACH TO POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT PRESSES IN FROM MANITOBA/ONTARIO
AHEAD OF DEEPER UPR LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO UPR LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS EXITS TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY SHOULD END UP BLO NORMAL ALL
AREAS. COULD SEE CHANCES OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS /NO TSRA/ AS UPR
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY AS WELL
ALONG LK SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AS THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES. PATTERN WILL
FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK ON THE LAKE SUPERIOR BEACHES
FOR FRIDAY. ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD FINALLY
SCOUR OUT THE FOG ON LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION TO THE N
OF A WARM FRONT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT AT
KCMX/KSAW AS BOTH OF THESE TERMINALS WILL ALSO HAVE A LIGHT UPSLOPE
WIND. UNDER A DOWNSLOPE SE/S WIND AT KIWD...CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD
NOT FALL BLO MVFR. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING
N OF THE AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN ALL TERMINALS IMPROVING TO VFR.
AS FOR PCPN...SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THERE APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE MORNING HRS AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS N INTO THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH TO TREND TOWARD PCPN
POSSIBILITY. NOT THE IDEAL TIME OF DAY FOR TSRA...BUT TSRA NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS INSTABILITY BUILDS IN WARM/HUMID AIR MASS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION THAT
MIGHT DEVELOP IS VERY LOW. FOR NOW...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS LATE AFTN AT
KSAW AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
BETTER POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 25 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. MAIN
HAZARDS FOR MOST OF THE TIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS AND
FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162-240>250-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
133 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013
RECENT TRENDS WITH THE HRRR ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN PROBABILITIES
FROM THE SREF AND THE OVERNIGHT QPF PLACEMENT FROM THE ECMWF HAS
PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE
HRRR ARE IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE FROM MONTEVIDEO AND APPLETON ON
EAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE SREF
PROBABILITIES OF 1 AND 2 INCH RAINS OVERNIGHT AND THE 12 HOUR QPF
FROM THE ECMWF. THIS IS ALSO AT THE NOSE OF THE RAP 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013
BIG THING TO START OFF THE SHORT TERM IS THE PRESENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN MN...WHICH STRETCHES FROM
MARSHALL OVER TO FARIBAULT AND LA CROSSE AT 330 PM. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED...WITH TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 90 TO
GO WITH MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS. THIS BOUNDARY IS BEING REINFORCED
BY A COOL AND SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS COME DOWN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. FARTHER WEST...THERE IS
A DIFFUSE PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONT ORIENTED N/S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS.
TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH NORTH TO ABOUT THE I-94
CORRIDOR...BUT WILL CONTINUALLY BE STRUGGLING AGAINST LAKE
SUPERIOR HIGH. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE TROUGH BACK OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO MN AND WILL BE BISECTING MN FROM THE SW
CORNER UP TOWARD THE INL AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE.
ATMOSPHERE OVER MN/NRN WI REMAINS OVERTURNED AND WORKED OVER
FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...AS EVIDENCED BY MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ON THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS OF 5 TO 7 DEG C PER KM....THOUGH
THEY HAVE STARTED TO SHOWS SIGNS OF RECOVERING IN THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. THESE WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS FAIRLY
BENIGN ACROSS THE MPX AREA UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. AS 00Z
APPROACHES...A 30-40KT LLJ WILL BEGIN COMING UP OUT OF IA AND
IMPINGING ON THE WARM FRONT ACROSS MN...WHICH SHOULD REALLY START
TO RAMP UP PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN QUESTION THEN FOR TONIGHT BECOMES
HOW FAR NORTH DOES THE WARM FRONT AND NOSE OF THE LLJ GO. ONCE
AGAIN...EXPECT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TO BE VERY ACTIVE...WITH
WIDESPREAD TSRA THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRAIN...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING BEING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN TREAT BEING WET MICRO/DOWN BURSTS ONCE
AGAIN. GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM...THE PART OF THE
AREA THAT WOULD BE MOST AT RISK FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
ESSENTIALLY BE THE HEART OF THE MPX CWA FROM SW MN...UP THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES AND OVER INTO WRN WI.
UNFORTUNATELY...HI-RES MODELS ARE OF NO USE TONIGHT...AS EACH WRF
MEMBER HAS ITS OWN UNIQUE IDEA OF HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. AND
THE HRRR HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN
ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY...CAN NOT PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. GREATEST THREAT OF COURSE WOULD BE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHEREVER IT DECIDES TO SETUP SHOP
TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...THE DAKOTAS BOUNDARY WILL BE DRIFTING INTO MN...WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN BEHIND IT. THIS MAY ACTUALLY ALLOW FOR A DRY
DAY IN WRN MN...BUT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CWA...THE LLJ WILL
BE INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
AGAIN EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS WRN WI. WEST OF THE COLD
FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY BRING CLEARING CONDITIONS AND A
RESPITE FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. 925 MB TEMPS MONDAY
WILL RISE TO BETWEEN +23 AND +25C...SO THINKING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S ARE LIKELY AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER SWRN MN COULD REACH
THE LOWER 90S.
THE NOSE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO REACH SRN MN TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING AROUND...
AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS RIDGING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MAINTAINED MEDIUM POPS THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE ANY MORNING MCS/S...TUESDAY MAY TURN HOT AND HUMID PRIOR TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING. NAM WOULD FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S WITH PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE ERN CWA WITH MCS CLOUDINESS PERSISTING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A MUCH DRIER PERIOD WILL TAKE HOLD IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WITH RIDGING RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND A
ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNING TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN FIRING OVER SRN MN...N OF A LINGERING
STNRY FNT OVER NR IA. THIS FNT WILL TRANSITION TO A WMFNT AND
SLOWLY LIFT N OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL STORMS TRAVERSE THE FNT FROM
W TO E. KRWF THE FIRST TO BE AFFECTED...THEN ACTIVITY WILL
STEADILY SPREAD E. CONDS WILL LIKELY DEGRADE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR IN THE TSTM ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE ALSO SEEN REPORTS
OF A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CIGS...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST
LONG...ESP IF RAIN WASHES IT OUT. CONDS TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY LATE MRNG AS MIXING OCCURS WITH INCRG S WINDS. VFR WILL
THEN PERSIST THRU MOST OF THE DAY FOR WRN-CENTRAL MN WHILE WRN MN
INTO WRN WI SEE OCNL MVFR CONDS WITH LINGERING SHWRS.
KMSP...MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE TIMING OF TSTMS. BEST TIMING PUTS
TSTMS INTO THE MSP AREA 07Z-10Z BUT COULD LAST SLIGHTLY LONGER.
MVFR-IFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS. CONDS
IMPROVE GRADUALLY THRU THE DAY WHILE SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP E OF THE
MSP TERMINAL. AFTER RELATIVELY LIGHT E WINDS THIS MRNG...SE WINDS
INCRS TO ARND 15 KT THRU THIS AFTN WITH OCNL GUSTS TO ARND 25MPH.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MON NIGHT...CHC TSRA. VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC TSRA. VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.
WED...CHC TSRA. VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA. WINDS S SHIFT TO NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041-042-
047>049-051-054>062-064>069-073>076-082-083-091.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAH
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1054 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2013
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
Neither the short range convection allowing models nor 00z NAM have
much of a clue to the ongoing convection from southwest KS through
west central MO. Activity appears to be aligning itself wsw-ene along
a weak area of frontogenesis within the h8-h7 layer best depicted by
the 02z RAP. The southerly h8 winds of 40-45kts is advecting ample
moisture/instability across this boundary and with CIN values
increasing since sunset this now supports elevated vs surface based
convection. While the initial activity into our western counties tends
to weaken/dissipate believe convection further upstream over KS will
stand a better chance of surviving as it spreads eastward overnight
and thus chance PoPs are warranted for the far west central and
northwest portions of the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
Main concern will be with potential for convection again tonight and
then increasing heat conditions Tuesday. Latest HRRR model shows shortwave
trough in synoptic flow to hold together as it moves into eastern
Kansas. Dynamics are fairly weak as this is just a ripple in the
nearly zonal flow over the region. However...there is some modest
instability and potential for a decent LLJ late tonight....so another
nocturnal MCS could move through...especially in northern zones where
mid level lapse rates favor better instability.
On Tuesday...there still is a chance in the afternoon in the northern
zones for some convection to fire as yet another very weak short wave
trough moves through. Also of concern is what might be left over in
terms of outflow boundaries from any activity tonight.
Therefore...will keep a chance in the northern zones for tomorrow.
Meanwhile the thermal ridge begins to build to the west with 850mb
temperatures into the middle and upper 20s deg C in western and
central Kansas. As this thermal ridge moves towards the area...we
will see heat indices begin to edge up to low 100s. Will not issue
advisory for Tuesday but have mentioned it in the hazardous weather
outlook.
Tuesday night...yet another chance for some nocturnal MCS activity
mainly in the northeastern zones as the thermal ridge axis moves over
the western areas and should limit convection there.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
Beginning in the middle of the work week, the flattened zonal flow
across the nation will begin to amplify as the prevailing westerlies
begin to buckle across the U.S.A./Canadian border. The buckling in
the flow will be lead by a weak shortwave Wednesday, with our region
quickly finding itself in the the northwest flow as the ridge axis
of the amplifying ridge pops up to to our west. However, as the
weekend arrives the trough across the Great Lakes will gather some
energy, expanding enough to possibly but much of our forecast area
on the cool side of the still prevailing northwest flow.
The pattern for the week will dictate hot and humid conditions
through the middle of the work week, with Wednesday and Thursday
being particularly muggy and troublesome. Dew points will be
critical mid-week on determining the need for a heat advisory as
heat indices will be ranging in the low 100s. Currently, forecast
numbers are coming up just shy of criteria, though this currently
looks due to the fact that afternoon dew points will likely mix out
a little as the hot air advecting in aloft from the southwest will
also be a bit dry.
By Friday...temperatures are expected to back off a little from the
hot and humid readings of the previous few days as the trough over
the Great Lakes begins to dominate the eastern CONUS. Readings for
Friday will still reach in the 90s, but the humidity wont be as bad;
and for the weekend temperatures should range through the 80s.
As for precipitation, only true potential for more than isolated
storms looks to be focused on Thursday night into Friday morning as
the edge of the Great Lakes trough begins pushing back to the
southwest. Have kept PoPs in the chance category owing to the
vagaries of forecast timing in a northwest flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
Over the next hour a small area of showers may just nick the KMKC
terminal at the start of the forecast.
Otherwise, rain chances tonight likely hinge on evolution of
convection currently developing over southwest KS. Will lean more
towards the latest HRRR model output as not overly impressed by the
other short range convection allowing models. HRRR suggests the
activity over KS will fall apart as it tracks east but could last
long enough for a few cells to reach all 3 terminals after midnight.
Low confidence of storms survival favors using VCTS.
Bulk of forecast will see broken alto-cumulus with cigs above 12k ft
agl with gusty southerly winds dying off by sunset but reforming by
mid Tuesday morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Adolphson/73
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
Main concern will be with potential for convection again tonight and
then increasing heat conditions Tuesday. Latest HRRR model shows shortwave
trough in synoptic flow to hold together as it moves into eastern
Kansas. Dynamics are fairly weak as this is just a ripple in the
nearly zonal flow over the region. However...there is some modest
instability and potential for a decent LLJ late tonight....so another
nocturnal MCS could move through...especially in northern zones where
mid level lapse rates favor better instability.
On Tuesday...there still is a chance in the afternoon in the northern
zones for some convection to fire as yet another very weak short wave
trough moves through. Also of concern is what might be left over in
terms of outflow boundaries from any activity tonight.
Therefore...will keep a chance in the northern zones for tomorrow.
Meanwhile the thermal ridge begins to build to the west with 850mb
temperatures into the middle and upper 20s deg C in western and
central Kansas. As this thermal ridge moves towards the area...we
will see heat indices begin to edge up to low 100s. Will not issue
advisory for Tuesday but have mentioned it in the hazardous weather
outlook.
Tuesday night...yet another chance for some nocturnal MCS activity
mainly in the northeastern zones as the thermal ridge axis moves over
the western areas and should limit convection there.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
Beginning in the middle of the work week, the flattened zonal flow
across the nation will begin to amplify as the prevailing westerlies
begin to buckle across the U.S.A./Canadian border. The buckling in
the flow will be lead by a weak shortwave Wednesday, with our region
quickly finding itself in the the northwest flow as the ridge axis
of the amplifying ridge pops up to to our west. However, as the
weekend arrives the trough across the Great Lakes will gather some
energy, expanding enough to possibly but much of our forecast area
on the cool side of the still prevailing northwest flow.
The pattern for the week will dictate hot and humid conditions
through the middle of the work week, with Wednesday and Thursday
being particularly muggy and troublesome. Dew points will be
critical mid-week on determining the need for a heat advisory as
heat indices will be ranging in the low 100s. Currently, forecast
numbers are coming up just shy of criteria, though this currently
looks due to the fact that afternoon dew points will likely mix out
a little as the hot air advecting in aloft from the southwest will
also be a bit dry.
By Friday...temperatures are expected to back off a little from the
hot and humid readings of the previous few days as the trough over
the Great Lakes begins to dominate the eastern CONUS. Readings for
Friday will still reach in the 90s, but the humidity wont be as bad;
and for the weekend temperatures should range through the 80s.
As for precipitation, only true potential for more than isolated
storms looks to be focused on Thursday night into Friday morning as
the edge of the Great Lakes trough begins pushing back to the
southwest. Have kept PoPs in the chance category owing to the
vagaries of forecast timing in a northwest flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
Over the next hour a small area of showers may just nick the KMKC
terminal at the start of the forecast.
Otherwise, rain chances tonight likely hinge on evolution of
convection currently developing over southwest KS. Will lean more
towards the latest HRRR model output as not overly impressed by the
other short range convection allowing models. HRRR suggests the
activity over KS will fall apart as it tracks east but could last
long enough for a few cells to reach all 3 terminals after midnight.
Low confidence of storms survival favors using VCTS.
Bulk of forecast will see broken alto-cumulus with cigs above 12k ft
agl with gusty southerly winds dying off by sunset but reforming by
mid Tuesday morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adolphson/73
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
915 AM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ZONAL FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA IS WRAPPING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF FALLON COUNTY. HAVE REMOVED
POPS THERE FOR THIS MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE FORECAST TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. 12Z TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AGREES WELL
WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AND NO CHANGES MADE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE
WAS TO LOWER CLOUD COVER OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING.
RICHMOND
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE TODAY AND MON IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT MOISTURE SAT. OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN MT BY MON AS A
PLUME OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRIES TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD
AT LEAST BAKER JUST AS 500-HPA FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST ONCE MORE.
TODAY...A DRYING AND WELL-MIXED AIR MASS WILL YIELD A WARM DAY. WE
HAVE HIGHS A BIT ABOVE THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA IN RESPECT TO EXPECTED MIXING...WHICH SHOULD EXTEND TO
600 HPA IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND 700 HPA IN SOUTHEASTERN MT. ONLY A
LOW POP WAS RETAINED IN BAKER THIS MORNING. WE ALSO WENT WITHOUT A
MENTION OF FOG...AS VISIBILITIES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT HAVE COME UP
SINCE 06 UTC AS WINDS BECAME WEST-SOUTHWEST. HRRR OUTPUT ALSO SAYS
MOST OF THE FOG WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT WE
WILL NEED TO CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT WITH LATER FORECASTS. SERIOUS THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO
ADDING SOME LOW POPS FOR STORMS AFTER 09 UTC TO AT LEAST BAKER AND
EKALAKA AS A 30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE ALL
SHOWS A GRADIENT IN NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES NORMAL TO THAT LOW-
LEVEL JET TOO...WHICH CAN OFTEN BE A GOOD FORECAST SIGNAL FOR SOME
NOCTURNAL STORMS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE RISING TOO...AND
THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT PROCESS CAN DETER DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...WE LEFT A DRY FORECAST IN TACT TONIGHT. NOTE THOUGH THAT WE
ALREADY HAD LOW POPS IN BAKER AND EKALAKA FROM 12 TO 18 UTC ON MON
AND THUS THOSE WERE LEFT IN PLAY.
MON...A MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH 700-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +11
TO +13 C WILL CROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
MIXING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CRACK AT 90 F...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MT. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A LEE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL
FORM OVER THE AREA...AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE
OF PULLING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT. MOST MODELS SHOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 55 TO 60 F AROUND BAKER AND EKALAKA BENEATH A
PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM. ONLY ONE
MEMBER OF THE 21 UTC SREF HAS LESS THAN 1800 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS
THAT AREA BY PEAK HEATING...AND MOST HAVE VALUES OF 2500 J/KG JUST
LIKE THE 00 UTC NAM AND ECMWF SUPPORT. SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY
BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE MLCIN...BUT FORCING IS IN QUESTION SINCE THERE
MAY NOT BE MUCH LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IN PLACE. THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS DRIVEN BY EXPECTED MLCAPE AND VEERING /THOUGH RATHER
MODEST/ WIND PROFILES IS THUS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON STORMS GETTING
GOING IN THE FIRST PLACE. MEANWHILE...WE WILL ALSO HAVE CHANCES OF
SOME WEAKER AND HIGH-BASED STORMS ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
LIVINGSTON WHERE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL FALL A BIT BY 00 UTC. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
OVERALL THEME OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS IN TACT WITH A RIDGE
PROGGED TO BUILD TO END THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF
MID LEVEL HEIGHT INCREASES KEEPS BEING DELAYED LITTLE BY LITTLE. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE WAVE MAY LIMIT CONVECTION CHANCES BUT WILL KEEP
SCATTERED POPS IN AS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT TO GET THE TIMING OF
THIS WAVE DOWN. THE SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST AND VEERS THE FLOW TO THE
WEST FOR ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STARTS TO BUILD IN EARNEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS
THE TAP TO PACIFIC MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE EASTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPOINTS UP. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ITSELF. WILL KEEP POPS OUT FRIDAY. DID ADD
THEM SATURDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN
SLIDING A CHUNK OF ENERGY WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE MAIN BUILDING OF THE RIDGE HAS HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THE MODELS WERE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH CONSISTENCY ON THIS.
THE CONSENSUS DOES SEEM TO BE TO DELAY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND TO
SHIFT THE AXIS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS POSITION WOULD KEEP THE
POSSIBILITY OF BACK DOOR COOL FRONTS IN PLAY AND WOULD SUPPRESS
MONSOONAL TYPE OF MOISTURE FROM WRAPPING INTO THE STATE. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 053/088 062/086 058/087 059/088 059/089 059/090
1/U 11/B 23/T 21/B 10/U 00/U 02/T
LVM 078 044/085 054/081 053/083 052/084 053/085 053/086
1/B 13/T 34/T 21/B 11/U 11/U 12/T
HDN 080 051/089 059/088 057/089 059/090 059/091 059/093
1/U 11/B 23/T 21/B 11/U 10/U 01/U
MLS 078 056/089 062/088 060/088 059/087 060/087 060/089
1/U 12/T 23/T 21/B 10/U 01/U 11/U
4BQ 078 052/089 059/089 058/090 059/090 059/089 059/090
1/U 12/T 22/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 075 053/086 059/086 058/085 059/084 058/084 061/085
1/B 13/T 32/T 21/U 11/U 10/U 01/U
SHR 078 049/086 055/086 053/087 054/087 053/088 053/089
1/U 11/B 22/T 21/B 11/U 11/U 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
331 AM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE TODAY AND MON IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT MOISTURE SAT. OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN MT BY MON AS A
PLUME OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRIES TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD
AT LEAST BAKER JUST AS 500-HPA FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST ONCE MORE.
TODAY...A DRYING AND WELL-MIXED AIR MASS WILL YIELD A WARM DAY. WE
HAVE HIGHS A BIT ABOVE THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA IN RESPECT TO EXPECTED MIXING...WHICH SHOULD EXTEND TO
600 HPA IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND 700 HPA IN SOUTHEASTERN MT. ONLY A
LOW POP WAS RETAINED IN BAKER THIS MORNING. WE ALSO WENT WITHOUT A
MENTION OF FOG...AS VISIBILITIES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT HAVE COME UP
SINCE 06 UTC AS WINDS BECAME WEST-SOUTHWEST. HRRR OUTPUT ALSO SAYS
MOST OF THE FOG WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...A QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT WE
WILL NEED TO CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT WITH LATER FORECASTS. SERIOUS THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO
ADDING SOME LOW POPS FOR STORMS AFTER 09 UTC TO AT LEAST BAKER AND
EKALAKA AS A 30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE ALL
SHOWS A GRADIENT IN NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES NORMAL TO THAT LOW-
LEVEL JET TOO...WHICH CAN OFTEN BE A GOOD FORECAST SIGNAL FOR SOME
NOCTURNAL STORMS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE RISING TOO...AND
THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT PROCESS CAN DETER DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...WE LEFT A DRY FORECAST IN TACT TONIGHT. NOTE THOUGH THAT WE
ALREADY HAD LOW POPS IN BAKER AND EKALAKA FROM 12 TO 18 UTC ON MON
AND THUS THOSE WERE LEFT IN PLAY.
MON...A MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH 700-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +11
TO +13 C WILL CROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
MIXING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CRACK AT 90 F...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MT. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A LEE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL
FORM OVER THE AREA...AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE
OF PULLING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT. MOST MODELS SHOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 55 TO 60 F AROUND BAKER AND EKALAKA BENEATH A
PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM. ONLY ONE
MEMBER OF THE 21 UTC SREF HAS LESS THAN 1800 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS
THAT AREA BY PEAK HEATING...AND MOST HAVE VALUES OF 2500 J/KG JUST
LIKE THE 00 UTC NAM AND ECMWF SUPPORT. SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY
BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE MLCIN...BUT FORCING IS IN QUESTION SINCE THERE
MAY NOT BE MUCH LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IN PLACE. THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS DRIVEN BY EXPECTED MLCAPE AND VEERING /THOUGH RATHER
MODEST/ WIND PROFILES IS THUS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON STORMS GETTING
GOING IN THE FIRST PLACE. MEANWHILE...WE WILL ALSO HAVE CHANCES OF
SOME WEAKER AND HIGH-BASED STORMS ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
LIVINGSTON WHERE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL FALL A BIT BY 00 UTC. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
OVERALL THEME OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS IN TACT WITH A RIDGE
PROGGED TO BUILD TO END THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF
MID LEVEL HEIGHT INCREASES KEEPS BEING DELAYED LITTLE BY A LITTLE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE WAVE MAY LIMIT CONVECTION CHANCES BUT WILL KEEP
SCATTERED POPS IN AS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT TO GET THE TIMING OF
THIS WAVE DOWN. THE SHORTWAVE ZIPS EAST AND VEERS THE FLOW TO THE
WEST FOR ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STARTS TO BUILD IN EARNEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS
THE TAP TO PACIFIC MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE EASTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPOINTS UP. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ITSELF. WILL KEEP POPS OUT FRIDAY. DID ADD
THEM SATURDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN
SLIDING A CHUNK OF ENERGY WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE MAIN BUILDING OF THE RIDGE HAS HELD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THE MODELS WERE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH CONSISTENCY ON THIS.
THE CONSENSUS DOES SEEM TO BE TO DELAY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND TO
SHIFT THE AXIS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS POSITION WOULD KEEP THE
POSSIBILITY OF BACK DOOR COOL FRONTS IN PLAY AND WOULD SUPPRESS
MONSOONAL TYPE OF MOISTURE FROM WRAPPING INTO THE STATE. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF A KMLS TO KBHK LINE. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER SHOWER BUT VFR IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
WITH LIGHT WIND. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 053/088 062/086 058/087 059/088 059/089 059/090
1/U 11/B 23/T 21/B 10/U 00/U 02/T
LVM 078 044/085 054/081 053/083 052/084 053/085 053/086
1/B 13/T 34/T 21/B 11/U 11/U 12/T
HDN 080 051/089 059/088 057/089 059/090 059/091 059/093
1/U 11/B 23/T 21/B 11/U 10/U 01/U
MLS 078 056/089 062/088 060/088 059/087 060/087 060/089
1/B 12/T 23/T 21/B 10/U 01/U 11/U
4BQ 078 052/089 059/089 058/090 059/090 059/089 059/090
1/U 12/T 22/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 075 053/086 059/086 058/085 059/084 058/084 061/085
2/W 13/T 32/T 21/U 11/U 10/U 01/U
SHR 078 049/086 055/086 053/087 054/087 053/088 053/089
1/U 11/B 22/T 21/B 11/U 11/U 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
MORNING MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EAST. A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE
ALSO NOTED...WITH ONE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND THEN NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BEFORE FLOWING
EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND
60KTS BETWEEN 300MB AND 200MB PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND
KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVES...ALONG WITH A PAIR OF CLOSED MID LEVEL LOWS. ONE SUCH
LOW IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND
THE OTHER IS OVER THE PACIFIC JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
CWA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST SUCH AS KK82...KK61...AND KHJH ARE ALL
OBSERVING A SURFACE WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN
SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
SURGING NORTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE
NAM12...OF VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVING OVERHEAD
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON
SUCH A FEATURE PROMOTING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS VERY LOW HOWEVER AND AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE RELEGATING ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS TO
OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CWA...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RESULTANT AXIS OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. AS FOR THE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AND RAP ALL SUGGEST A
HEALTHY CAP PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. GIVEN THIS...ITS HARD
TO BUY INTO QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND
SREF-MEAN...WHICH ALL SUGGEST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING. HRRR SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...SUGGESTING VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TOWARDS 00Z. GIVEN ALL
THIS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SUCH A SOLUTION AND WILL MAINTAIN ~20% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
23-00Z. 00Z AND BEYOND...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAPPING
INVERSION WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THUS MAKING CONVECTION SOMEWHAT MORE
LIKELY...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR. GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS...~%30...00-06Z ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. SHOULD
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR
EVENING...THEN SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT WITH DEEP LAYER
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000-4000J/KG WAITING FOR UPDRAFT PRODUCTION
AND 30-35KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT.
CERTAINLY LARGE HAIL AND MICROBURST-RELATED WIND GUSTS WILL BE A
THREAT...BUT ENHANCED HORIZONTAL VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD ALSO PROMOTE ISOLATED TORNADIC
ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO AS A RESULT.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF A ~45KT 850MB
JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. SHOULD DEEP
CONVECTION BE ONGOING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...THEN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET COULD CERTAINLY HELP INCREASE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF SAID
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO...IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. SHOULD HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR AREA
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OUR WEST. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...SREF-MEAN...AND HRRR. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA STARTING
AROUND 06Z. SEVERE WEATHER COULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FROM
EARLIER IN THE EVENING...SHOULD IT DEVELOP...MAINTAINS ITSELF. THAT
BEING SAID...BARRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ACROSS THE
REGION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY AS POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY DECREASES 06Z ONWARD.
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
OUR AREA AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE MONDAY DURING THE DAY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES
NORTH AND AN OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING OVERTAKES THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME THE ONLY REAL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHICH IS WHERE AND
WHEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ADVANCING LOW LEVEL DRY LINE WILL BULGE EAST.
AN AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS DRY LINE BULGE...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH DIABATIC HEATING...MAY
BE ENOUGH TO INITIALIZE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND AS A RESULT...~20% POPS ARE FORECAST 21Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. SHOULD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BE REALIZED LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...THEN DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000J/KG...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
~30KTS...WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR UPDRAFT PRODUCTION AND ENHANCEMENT.
GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FINALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED MONDAY
AFTERNOON ONCE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SUSTAINED WIND OF ~24KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING
35KTS...WILL BE REALIZED PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
MONDAY NIGHT...A VORT MAX LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE MONDAY AFTERNOON HOURS WILL SLIDE
EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER MAY BRING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION TO RAIN...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
INSTABILITY IS HIGH AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE MODEST BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WARM
MID LEVEL CAP AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW WITH SLIGHT POPS. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z
NAM FAVOR OUR WEST AND NORTH FOR STORMS...WHILE THE 12Z GFS
HIGHLIGHTS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF AND NAM MAKE MORE SENSE
WITH FAVORING NORTH AND WEST ZONES BASED ON THE EXPECTED UPPER WAVE
LOCATION AND THE INCREASING STRENGTH OF THE CAP AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL WITH ALL
OF THE BETTER UPPER FLOW AND SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. A SFC TROUGH AXIS
WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE ON TUESDAY AND TURN
THE WINDS TO NORTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CALL
FOR A DRY FORECAST...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...HENCE THE 10 PERCENT POPS. TUESDAY WILL BE SCORCHER
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS NEBRASKA TO OVER 100 ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES WITH THE
NORTH WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT CONTINUE TO EXPECT 90S FOR HIGHS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS A SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN AS
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH
PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD GIVEN A LACK OF FORCING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST RESENT
MODEL RUNS ARE STARTING TO BACK OFF OF THIS ALREADY RATHER SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT WILL TRY TO WORK
ITS WAY THROUGH AT SOME POINT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...BUT THURSDAY
SHOULD STILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 90S ACROSS NEBRASKA TO NEAR 100 IN
KANSAS. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS. THIS COOLER FETCH SHOULD
DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S ON FRIDAY...AND THEN 80S
ACROSS NEBRASKA TO LOWER 90S OVER KANSAS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP ON SUNDAY WITH EVERYONE BACK IN THE 90S.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT VARY THAT MUCH AND REMAIN RATHER
TOASTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 19Z...WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A PERIODIC CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL CONTINUES TO APPEAR AT KGRI. AS
DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES TO INCREASE HOWEVER...ANY LINGERING
STRATUS SHOULD BREAK APART AND INCREASE IN HEIGHT...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 19Z. PASSING CLOUDS...WITH
BASES BETWEEN 3000FT AGL AND 8000FT AGL WILL THEN REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD....WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
CLOSER TO 15000FT AGL ALSO FORECAST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT KGRI THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
PROBABILITY OF SUCH CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED AT KGRI IS TOO LOW
FOR INSERTION INTO THE TAF AT THIS TIME HOWEVER. THE SURFACE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY
MORNING. THE AXIS OF A LOW LEVEL JET...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45KTS...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF KANSAS TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THUS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
KGRI. THAT BEING SAID...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED TO ENSURE IT DOES NOT MOVE FARTHER NORTH THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD
POTENTIALLY BE OBSERVED AT KGRI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT KGRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1221 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WAS SENDING AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TOWARD EASTERN NEBRASKA...THUS INCLUDED A WIND GUST
MENTION WITH TEMPO TSTM GROUP EARLY IN TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND LEADING LINE IN SW NEBR COULD MOVE
ACROSS TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION LATER. HOWEVER...WITH INITIAL
FORECAST ONLY CARRIED A FEW HOUR WINDOW WITH INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
SURGE. GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TURN VARIABLE AFTER CONVECTION PASSES
THROUGH. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AID IN A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH KOFK SUNDAY MIDDAY WITH NNW WINDS BEHIND IT. AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY SRLY WINDS AND A PROB30 GROUP WAS CARRIED AT KOMA/KLNK
FOR ADDITIONAL TSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY...THEN WARMING NEXT
WEEK...REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HELD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT FUELED BY THETA-E
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS SWEPT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE MORNING BUT HAD
DECREASED MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING. ATTENDANT CLOUD SHIELD HELD
TEMPERATURES DOWN MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT RETURNING SOUTH WINDS
AND MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON PUSHED TEMPERATURES TOWARD OR ABOVE
90 IN ALL BUT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPS LAGGED IN THE UPPER
70S OR LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WERE BETWEEN 65 AND 70.
LOOKS LIKE MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE FOR LATE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART. RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
MUCAPE VALUES WELL OVER 2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NEGLIGIBLE. MEANWHILE IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS NOTED...COOLER
SURFACE TEMPS BEHIND EXITING CONVECTION HAS KEPT MUCAPE LOW.
EXPECT THAT TO ERODE LATER THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO/WYOMING COOLS MID LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOMEWHAT. BETTER CHANCES FOR
EVENING CONVECTION LIES TO OUR WEST WHERE CAPES ARE INCREASING AND
CAP DIMINISHING...AND LATEST MESO DISCUSSIONS FROM SPC SUGGEST
WATCH IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN
OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY REACHING THE I-80 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS
HAVE COME DOWN SOME FROM YESTERDAY.
WOULD EXPECT A DECREASING TREND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DRIFTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA IN THE MORNING. WHERE THAT FRONT
WILL SET UP WILL BE AFFECTED BY MORNING CONVECTION...BUT MOST
LIKELY WILL LIE SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO I-80 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE AND POOLING DEW POINTS ALONG FRONT WILL YIELD
CAPES CLOSE TO 3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30KT 0-6KM SHEAR. FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE UNDER STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM SUGGEST STORMS
WILL FIRE LATE IN THE DAY AS CAP WEAKENS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE ARE
POSSIBLE...AS SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS POINT
TO WIND AND HAIL. AND LOW LEVEL VORTICITY/HELICITY/EHI SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SEVERE THREAT
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE IN THE EVENING. AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAY ROLL ACROSS NORTHERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
AFTER MORNING CONVECTION MONDAY...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AS
HEIGHTS BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD FAVOR
AREAS NORTH OF NEBRASKA. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES COULD DRIVE A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. MODELS REMAIN BEARISH WITH PRECIP CHANCES
THEN...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS IN THE
90S WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 AM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON ISOLD CONVECTION DVLPG
AFTER 20Z OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST NM NEAR TX BORDER...AND IN
NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM NEAR OK PANHANDLE. TURBULENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE OK
PANHANDLE AND EXTENDS TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NM TO WEST TX BIG BEND
COUNTRY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 19Z THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE TYPICALLY G25KTS...WITH G30KTS IN TAF FOR LVS OVER EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SPEEDS
DECREASING AFTER 03Z SUNSET TONIGHT. SIMILAR WIND REGIME ON TAP
FROM 16Z ONWARD MON MORNING.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013...
.DISCUSSION..
DRY LINE HAS MADE LESS PROGRESS WESTWARD ATTM THAN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...AND AT 3 AM WAS STRETCHED FROM KROW NORTHEAST TO NEAR KCAO.
AT THE SAME TIME...A BOUNDARY FROM APPARENTLY THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER WRN NE AND KS...OR AT LEAST AIDED BY IT...HAD SAGGED TO KLHX
AND KLAA. LATEST RUC13 INDICATES THE BOUNDARY COULD REACH KTCC OR
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH BY MID MORNING...AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON IT COULD
BE STRETCHED FROM THE RATON AREA TO KTCC. 06Z NAM MAKES FOR AN
INTERESTING FORECAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING CENTERED NEAR
KLVS RATHER THAN LIFTING INTO NE CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CHANGE
COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE LESS WIND...AS WELL AS A LITTLE MORE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WE CURRENTLY HAVE PAINTED IN FAR
NE NM. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE LESS HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCALES.
WINDS TO BE A BIT STRONGER MONDAY...SHUNTING ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT TRIES TO WORK IT/S WAY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH IT/S NOW FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED...AND SEEPAGE INTO SOUTHWEST
NM APPEARS LESS LIKELY. STILL THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE JUST SOUTH
OF THE BORDER SO LEFT POPS PRETTY MUCH ALONE. DRY LINE CAN/T SEEM TO
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE LEE
TROUGH STAYING PUT. UPPER HIGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD BY
TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX...HEADING FOR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD BE THE
HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL AND WEST. EVIDENCE OF A
FRONT INVADING THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY-ISH COULD SPARK SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL/EAST. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE HIGH CENTER
STARTS TRIPPING TOWARD SALT LAKE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH TERRAIN AND DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL/WRN VALLEYS.
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NM TODAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...
TODAY`S FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE
WINDS. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DURATION AND SPATIAL
EXTENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THE MAIN
FEATURES THAT HAVE BEEN DICTATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THE PAST FEW
DAYS ARE STILL AT WORK...WITHOUT ANY BLATANT OR LARGE CHANGES. ANY
DIFFERENCES WILL BE FAIRLY SUBTLE. HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS MAY
EXCEED YESTERDAY`S LEVELS DUE TO LESS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. MODEL
DEPICTION OF MIXING HEIGHTS IS RATHER SPLOTCHY...INDICATIVE THAT IT
IS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING IT. ALSO...SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG FOR LATE JUNE...HOSTING SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
AT H7 AND UP TO 20-25 KT AT H5 WHICH SHOULD BE WITHIN THE MIXED
LAYER OF MOST SITES. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR A BETTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF. A CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION HAS HELPED USHER A
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO. IF THIS BOUNDARY SPILLS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NM...BEYOND WHAT MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING...IT COULD
WREAK HAVOC ON WIND FORECAST DUE TO ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED GRADIENT. HUMIDITY WILL TANK LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
NEAR TX BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION. HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND WELL-MIXED
AIR MASS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A GUSTY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
BEST CONFIDENCE FOR CRITICAL WINDS EXTENDS ALONG AND EAST OF A
SOCORRO TO CLINES CORNERS TO RATON LINE...EXCLUDING SOME OF THE FAR
PLAINS ALONG THE OK/TX BORDERS. HAVE THROWN IN MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
FWZ106 TO THE WARNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF
STRAY GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE WEST CENTRAL ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL TRIGGER ON WARNING.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER ON MONDAY DUE TO STRONGER WIND SIGNALS
SUCH AS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT OF 20 TO 35 KT IN THE H7-H5 LAYER. VERY DRY AIR MASS
ALOFT AND REINFORCEMENT FROM A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MAKE ANOTHER
EXTREMELY LOW RH REGIME WITH POOR RECOVERIES MONDAY MORNING AND
PROLONGED SINGLE DIGIT READINGS. HAVE EXTENDED WATCH FOR MONDAY TO
INCLUDE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE AND NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS. HAVE LEFT NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
PLATEAU OUT DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDS...BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE SCRUTINIZED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE WINDS ALOFT DO RELAX SOME INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. STILL...A SUFFICIENT LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP SOME BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS GOING IN THE EAST...PRIMARILY NEAR
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. INTO WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
THE UPPER HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...PERIODICALLY CENTERING NEAR OR CLOSE TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS WILL SPELL DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...BUT WITH LOW
WINDS. MOISTURE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND AS A BACK DOOR FRONT AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO SEEP IN.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ102>104-106>108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ102>109.
&&
$$
43/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 AM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO
30 KT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/STORMS. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED WELL INTO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
NEAR THE TX/OK BORDERS WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL
ENHANCEMENTS TO THE GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MOST
LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL REMAIN PERSISTENTLY STRONG IN
THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
MONDAY.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013...
.DISCUSSION..
DRYLINE HAS MADE LESS PROGRESS WESTWARD ATTM THAN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...AND AT 3 AM WAS STRETCHED FROM KROW NORTHEAST TO NEAR KCAO.
AT THE SAME TIME...A BOUNDARY FROM APPARENTLY THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER WRN NE AND KS...OR AT LEAST AIDED BY IT...HAD SAGGED TO KLHX
AND KLAA. LATEST RUC13 INDICATES THE BOUNDARY COULD REACH KTCC OR
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDMORNING...AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON IT COULD
BE STRETCHED FROM THE RATON AREA TO KTCC. 06Z NAM MAKES FOR AN
INTERESTING FORECAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING CENTERED NEAR
KLVS RATHER THAN LIFTING INTO NE CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CHANGE
COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE LESS WIND...AS WELL AS A LITTLE MORE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WE CURRENTLY HAVE PAINTED IN FAR
NE NM. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE LESS HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCALES.
WINDS TO BE A BIT STRONGER MONDAY...SHUNTING ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT TRIES TO WORK IT/S WAY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH IT/S NOW FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED...AND SEEPAGE INTO SOUTHWEST
NM APPEARS LESS LIKELY. STILL THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE JUST SOUTH
OF THE BORDER SO LEFT POPS PRETTY MUCH ALONE. DRYLINE CAN/T SEEM TO
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE LEE
TROUGH STAYING PUT. UPPER HIGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD BY
TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX...HEADING FOR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD BE THE
HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL AND WEST. EVIDENCE OF A
FRONT INVADING THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY-ISH COULD SPARK SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL/EAST. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE HIGH CENTER
STARTS TRIPPING TOWARD SALT LAKE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH TERRAIN AND DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL/WRN VALLEYS.
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NM TODAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...
TODAY`S FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE
WINDS. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DURATION AND SPATIAL
EXTENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THE MAIN
FEATURES THAT HAVE BEEN DICTATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THE PAST FEW
DAYS ARE STILL AT WORK...WITHOUT ANY BLATANT OR LARGE CHANGES. ANY
DIFFERENCES WILL BE FAIRLY SUBTLE. HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS MAY
EXCEED YESTERDAY`S LEVELS DUE TO LESS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. MODEL
DEPICTION OF MIXING HEIGHTS IS RATHER SPLOTCHY...INDICATIVE THAT IT
IS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING IT. ALSO...SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG FOR LATE JUNE...HOSTING SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
AT H7 AND UP TO 20-25 KT AT H5 WHICH SHOULD BE WITHIN THE MIXED
LAYER OF MOST SITES. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR A BETTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF. A CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION HAS HELPED USHER A
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO. IF THIS BOUNDARY SPILLS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NM...BEYOND WHAT MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING...IT COULD
WREAK HAVOC ON WIND FORECAST DUE TO ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED GRADIENT. HUMIDITY WILL TANK LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
NEAR TX BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION. HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND WELL-MIXED
AIRMASS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A GUSTY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
BEST CONFIDENCE FOR CRITICAL WINDS EXTENDS ALONG AND EAST OF A
SOCORRO TO CLINES CORNERS TO RATON LINE...EXCLUDING SOME OF THE FAR
PLAINS ALONG THE OK/TX BORDERS. HAVE THROWN IN MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
FWZ106 TO THE WARNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF
STRAY GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE WEST CENTRAL ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL TRIGGER ON WARNING.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER ON MONDAY DUE TO STRONGER WIND SIGNALS
SUCH AS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT OF 20 TO 35 KT IN THE H7-H5 LAYER. VERY DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT AND REINFORCEMENT FROM A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MAKE ANOTHER
EXTREMELY LOW RH REGIME WITH POOR RECOVERIES MONDAY MORNING AND
PROLONGED SINGLE DIGIT READINGS. HAVE EXTENDED WATCH FOR MONDAY TO
INCLUDE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE AND NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS. HAVE LEFT NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
PLATEAU OUT DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDS...BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE SCRUTINIZED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE WINDS ALOFT DO RELAX SOME INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. STILL...A SUFFICIENT LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP SOME BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS GOING IN THE EAST...PRIMARILY NEAR
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. INTO WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
THE UPPER HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...PERIODICALLY CENTERING NEAR OR CLOSE TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS WILL SPELL DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...BUT WITH LOW
WINDS. MOISTURE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND AS A BACK DOOR FRONT AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO SEEP IN.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ102>104-106>108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ102>109.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 AM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.DISCUSSION..
DRYLINE HAS MADE LESS PROGRESS WESTWARD ATTM THAN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...AND AT 3 AM WAS STRETCHED FROM KROW NORTHEAST TO NEAR KCAO.
AT THE SAME TIME...A BOUNDARY FROM APPARENTLY THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER WRN NE AND KS...OR AT LEAST AIDED BY IT...HAD SAGGED TO KLHX
AND KLAA. LATEST RUC13 INDICATES THE BOUNDARY COULD REACH KTCC OR
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDMORNING...AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON IT COULD
BE STRETCHED FROM THE RATON AREA TO KTCC. 06Z NAM MAKES FOR AN
INTERESTING FORECAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING CENTERED NEAR
KLVS RATHER THAN LIFTING INTO NE CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CHANGE
COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE LESS WIND...AS WELL AS A LITTLE MORE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WE CURRENTLY HAVE PAINTED IN FAR
NE NM. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE LESS HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCALES.
WINDS TO BE A BIT STRONGER MONDAY...SHUNTING ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT TRIES TO WORK IT/S WAY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH IT/S NOW FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED...AND SEEPAGE INTO SOUTHWEST
NM APPEARS LESS LIKELY. STILL THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE JUST SOUTH
OF THE BORDER SO LEFT POPS PRETTY MUCH ALONE. DRYLINE CAN/T SEEM TO
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE LEE
TROUGH STAYING PUT. UPPER HIGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD BY
TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX...HEADING FOR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD BE THE
HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL AND WEST. EVIDENCE OF A
FRONT INVADING THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY-ISH COULD SPARK SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL/EAST. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE HIGH CENTER
STARTS TRIPPING TOWARD SALT LAKE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH TERRAIN AND DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL/WRN VALLEYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NM TODAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...
TODAY`S FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE
WINDS. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DURATION AND SPATIAL
EXTENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THE MAIN
FEATURES THAT HAVE BEEN DICTATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THE PAST FEW
DAYS ARE STILL AT WORK...WITHOUT ANY BLATANT OR LARGE CHANGES. ANY
DIFFERENCES WILL BE FAIRLY SUBTLE. HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS MAY
EXCEED YESTERDAY`S LEVELS DUE TO LESS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. MODEL
DEPICTION OF MIXING HEIGHTS IS RATHER SPLOTCHY...INDICATIVE THAT IT
IS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING IT. ALSO...SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG FOR LATE JUNE...HOSTING SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
AT H7 AND UP TO 20-25 KT AT H5 WHICH SHOULD BE WITHIN THE MIXED
LAYER OF MOST SITES. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR A BETTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF. A CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION HAS HELPED USHER A
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO. IF THIS BOUNDARY SPILLS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NM...BEYOND WHAT MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING...IT COULD
WREAK HAVOC ON WIND FORECAST DUE TO ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED GRADIENT. HUMIDITY WILL TANK LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
NEAR TX BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION. HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND WELL-MIXED
AIRMASS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A GUSTY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
BEST CONFIDENCE FOR CRITICAL WINDS EXTENDS ALONG AND EAST OF A
SOCORRO TO CLINES CORNERS TO RATON LINE...EXCLUDING SOME OF THE FAR
PLAINS ALONG THE OK/TX BORDERS. HAVE THROWN IN MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
FWZ106 TO THE WARNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF
STRAY GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE WEST CENTRAL ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL TRIGGER ON WARNING.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER ON MONDAY DUE TO STRONGER WIND SIGNALS
SUCH AS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT OF 20 TO 35 KT IN THE H7-H5 LAYER. VERY DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT AND REINFORCEMENT FROM A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MAKE ANOTHER
EXTREMELY LOW RH REGIME WITH POOR RECOVERIES MONDAY MORNING AND
PROLONGED SINGLE DIGIT READINGS. HAVE EXTENDED WATCH FOR MONDAY TO
INCLUDE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE AND NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS. HAVE LEFT NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
PLATEAU OUT DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDS...BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE SCRUTINIZED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE WINDS ALOFT DO RELAX SOME INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. STILL...A SUFFICIENT LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP SOME BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS GOING IN THE EAST...PRIMARILY NEAR
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. INTO WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
THE UPPER HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...PERIODICALLY CENTERING NEAR OR CLOSE TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS WILL SPELL DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...BUT WITH LOW
WINDS. MOISTURE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND AS A BACK DOOR FRONT AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO SEEP IN.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRYLINE IS
CURRENTLY RETREATING AND STRONG S/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS
ARE ALSO RETURNING EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THESE GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 10Z MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
KCAO TO KROW LINE. ON SUNDAY...W/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 35KTS LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DRYLINE SHOULD MIX BACK OUT TO AT LEAST THE TX
BORDER...LIMITING TS POTENTIAL TO ALL AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS ROOSEVELT
COUNTY. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTY
S/SE WINDS RETURNING TO THE EAST OF IT.
34
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 92 51 92 51 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 88 40 89 41 / 0 0 5 5
CUBA............................ 87 45 86 45 / 0 0 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 88 45 87 44 / 0 0 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 87 43 86 43 / 0 0 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 89 47 89 46 / 0 0 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 89 47 89 46 / 0 0 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 96 50 94 55 / 0 0 5 5
CHAMA........................... 80 43 80 43 / 0 0 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 86 54 87 53 / 0 0 5 5
PECOS........................... 82 56 83 55 / 5 5 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 85 49 84 48 / 0 0 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 80 41 80 41 / 0 0 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 42 81 43 / 0 0 5 5
TAOS............................ 87 43 86 43 / 0 0 5 5
MORA............................ 82 51 83 52 / 5 5 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 92 48 92 49 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 89 50 89 50 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 52 92 52 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 93 60 93 60 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 96 62 95 62 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 98 55 96 56 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 57 95 57 / 0 0 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 96 59 97 59 / 0 0 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 95 60 95 59 / 0 0 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 101 64 100 64 / 0 0 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 89 57 91 57 / 0 0 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 92 58 93 57 / 0 0 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 91 53 91 52 / 5 5 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 56 89 55 / 5 5 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 92 58 92 58 / 5 5 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 93 63 93 64 / 5 5 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 87 53 87 57 / 10 10 10 20
CAPULIN......................... 90 52 90 51 / 5 5 5 5
RATON........................... 93 53 93 52 / 5 5 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 91 53 92 51 / 5 5 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 89 52 90 53 / 5 5 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 96 61 97 61 / 20 10 5 10
ROY............................. 93 58 94 56 / 5 5 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 97 60 98 59 / 5 5 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 98 62 98 61 / 0 5 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 102 68 103 67 / 5 5 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 98 64 97 64 / 10 10 20 10
PORTALES........................ 99 65 98 65 / 20 10 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 100 66 100 65 / 5 5 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 105 69 104 68 / 20 10 20 10
PICACHO......................... 95 63 96 63 / 10 10 10 10
ELK............................. 90 62 91 63 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ102>104-106>108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ102>109.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
150 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE OUR TREND OF A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
PATTERN. WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION ACTIVELY DEVELOPING THIS HR ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES IN LAKE PLAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAKE SHADOW BOUNDARY
WHICH NOW EXTENDS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING SUCH AN EVALUATION
AND ITS NICE TO SEE SHORT TERM HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE ADDING
VALUE TO THE NEAR TERM FCST PERIOD. THAT SAID...LATEST SPC DAY-1
OUTLOOK PLACES THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A SLGT RISK FOR
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT...LIKELY A
MANIFESTATION OF FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENCED IN
VARIOUS 12Z RAOBS. LARGE HAIL ALSO A POSSIBILITY CONSIDERING THE
STRONG BUOYANCY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LATEST SPC MESO PAGE
SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
950 AM UPDATE... FCST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THAT
SAID...MAIN FOCUS REMAINS CENTERED ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATER
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AS REGION WARMS WELL INTO THE THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S IN A MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWING SYR AT 85 THIS HR AND HAVE INCREASED
MAX TEMPS UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME LOCATIONS.
LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
SHEAR AXIS LIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT CONTINUES SPINNING THIS HR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RUC LAYERED 500-300 MB VORTICITY
SHOWS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA SLOWLY CREEPING NORTH
TOWARDS OUR AREA. THAT SAID...MAIN UPPER FORCING FOR ANY
CONVECTION LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM THESE EMBEDDED FEATURES
WITH ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL FORCING POSSIBLY BEING SUPPLIED BY
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
MODELS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. LATEST HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER TODAY
AND CONSIDERING THAT THE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE FAIR WEAK IN
NATURE...HAVE ELECTED TO TRIM BACK POPS INTO THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ABOVE SAID...12Z BUF RAOB SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ALOFT...IF ANY CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...A FEW ROGUE PULSEY
TYPE SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THANKS FOR WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
645 AM UPDATE...
LATEST HIGH RES MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON
WAVE BEING ABLE TO INITIATE CONVECTION...INCLUDING THE
HRRR...RAP/RUC...AND WRFARW. OPERATIONAL 06Z NAM...00Z GEM...AND
EVEN SOMEWHAT THE 06Z GFS CONCUR ON AT LEAST THE GENERAL IDEA.
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY WITH LARGER AREA OF MORE
DETERMINISTIC 60-70 PERCENT POPS FROM FINGER LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NY ESPECIALLY 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME. ALSO
HIGH CHANCE POPS SINKING INTO NORTHERN TIER OF PA 20Z SUN-01Z MON
TIME FRAME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS...AREAS NORTH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY
FINALLY GOT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS...AND WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCES ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BELT OF WESTERLIES. MORE OF THE AREA
WILL GET INVOLVED IN THAT TODAY...THOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.
A LOOSELY DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ON THE KY/TN
BORDER...WHILE THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES CARRIES OVER FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. BETWEEN THOSE FEATURES...AN UPPER RIDGE STILL EXTENDS
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS LOSING ITS GRIP HOWEVER. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW
QUICKLY MOISTURE FILLS THE VOID OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG
THE RIDGE AXIS. IN ASSIGNING POPS TODAY...THE SREF APPEARS WAY
OVERDONE...AND UPSTREAM 00Z SUN SOUNDINGS IN BUFFALO NY AND WHITE
LAKE MI CONFIRM LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAN SUGGESTED BY
SREF. THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE A GRADIENT IN
RAIN CHANCES. IT CAN BE CONFIDENTLY STATED THAT THE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL HAVE PWATS AT LEAST AROUND AN INCH-AND-TWO-
THIRDS...VERSUS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE PWATS STAY UNDER AN
INCH-AND-A-HALF. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS...MODELS
DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND THUS INSTABILITY.
AS A RESULT OF THE HIGHER PWATS...MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE ON NORTHERN
ZONES HAVING MORE INSTABILITY...GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG...YET FARTHER
SOUTH IS MORE UNCERTAIN. ALSO...THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO SOME ALBEIT LIMITED FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES. I HAVE
KEYED IN ON WEAK VORTICITY WAVE THAT SHOWS UP ON GEM/NAM/WRFARW
MODELS WHICH WILL ENTER FINGER LAKES AROUND MIDDAY AND DRIFT
EASTWARD FROM THERE IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.
RESULTANT CONVECTION WILL HAVE A FIGHT AS IT TRIES TO MAKE
SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...WITH LESS FRIENDLY AIR MASS...AND THUS LOWER
POPS. THOUGH THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN THUNDER...SHEAR AND OTHER
PARAMETERS ARE LACKING AND THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT. SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ONLY HAS A
BROAD-BRUSHED 5 PCT CHANCE OF SEVERE IN AN AXIS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH PARTS OF OUR REGION AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WAS OVERALL JUST SLIGHTLY TOO WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...AND I SUSPECT THE SAME MAY BE TRUE TODAY
CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PROSPECTS FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. FOR HIGHS I BLENDED MAV/MET WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
LAV GUIDANCE. STILL A WARM AND HUMID DAY...WITH HIGHS 80S AREA WIDE
AND EVEN SOME LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS NEAR 90. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
LEFTOVERS OF UPPER LOW NOW OVER KY/TN BORDER...WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD AROUND COLLAPSING UPPER RIDGE...AND CARRY THROUGH OUR
REGION MONDAY. DESPITE THAT LITTLE BIT OF ENERGY...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY BE LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. DIURNAL
HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY MOSTLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY TO NEPA /THOUGH AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE AREA WIDE/.
COME TUESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO RETURN ABOVE 1.5
INCHES AND WE WILL ALSO AGAIN BE PENETRATED BY THE BELT OF
WESTERLIES AND EMBEDDED WAVES. UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WAVES AND
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES PREVENTED ME FROM GOING HIGHER THAN 40-50 PCT
POPS...BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE A FAIR BET.
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ROUGHLY 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. DEW POINTS IN ABOUT THE
MID 60S MONDAY WILL SNEAK MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY...ALLOWING
HEAT INDICES TO ECLIPSE 90 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. DESPITE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...CAPES FAIRLY MODEST AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUCH AS
SHEAR ARE ONLY MARGINAL AT BEST...THUS OPPORTUNITY FOR AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS QUITE LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FLAT RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD. IMPULSES WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, WHILE
WARM/MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NY/PA TYPIFIED BY 850MB
TEMPS OF 16C TO 20C.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MILD TEMPERATURE PATTERN, WITH THE DAILY
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY, WHEN A TROF OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA DIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUN UPDATE... DVLPG SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN MAY PROVIDE
RESTRICTIVE CONDS AT KSYR/KRME THROUGH ABT 20Z...AND PERHAPS IN
THE VICINITY OF KELM/KITH BY 20-22Z. FOR NOW...WE`LL LEAVE MENTION
OF ANY RESTRICTIONS OUT OF KBGM/KAVP OVER THE NEAR-TERM...AS TSRA
OCCURRENCES ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AT THESE LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT INTO MON AM...QUIET CONDS OVERALL...BUT SOME LGT FOG/HZ
COULD BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KRME/KITH/KBGM/KAVP AFTER 06Z...WITH
SOME LOCALLY DENSE VLY FOG STILL PSBL IN THE VICINITY OF KELM (IFR
CONDS).
SHRA/TSRA COULD DVLP AGN BY MON AFTN...BUT SCTD COVERAGE PRECLUDES
THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.
OUTLOOK...TUE THROUGH FRI...
RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVE...WITH AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA FORESEEN. PATCHES OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY AM LOW
CLDS/FOG ARE ALSO PSBL.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...CMG/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
126 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE OUR TREND OF A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
PATTERN. WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION ACTIVELY DEVELOPING THIS HR ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES IN LAKE PLAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAKE SHADOW BOUNDARY
WHICH NOW EXTENDS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING SUCH AN EVALUATION
AND ITS NICE TO SEE SHORT TERM HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE ADDING
VALUE TO THE NEAR TERM FCST PERIOD. THAT SAID...LATEST SPC DAY-1
OUTLOOK PLACES THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A SLGT RISK FOR
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT...LIKEY A
MANIFESTATION OF FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENCED IN
VARIOUS 12Z RAOBS. LARGE HAIL ALSO A POSSIBILITY CONSIDERING THE
STRONG BUOYANCY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LATEST SPC MESO PAGE
SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
950 AM UPDATE... FCST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THAT
SAID...MAIN FOCUS REMAINS CENTERED ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATER
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AS REGION WARMS WELL INTO THE THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S IN A MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWING SYR AT 85 THIS HR AND HAVE INCREASED
MAX TEMPS UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME LOCATIONS.
LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
SHEAR AXIS LIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT CONTINUES SPINNING THIS HR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RUC LAYERED 500-300 MB VORTICITY
SHOWS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA SLOWLY CREEPING NORTH
TOWARDS OUR AREA. THAT SAID...MAIN UPPER FORCING FOR ANY
CONVECTION LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM THESE EMBEDDED FEATURES
WITH ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL FORCING POSSIBLY BEING SUPPLIED BY
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
MODELS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. LATEST HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER TODAY
AND CONSIDERING THAT THE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE FAIR WEAK IN
NATURE...HAVE ELECTED TO TRIM BACK POPS INTO THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ABOVE SAID...12Z BUF RAOB SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ALOFT...IF ANY CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...A FEW ROGUE PULSEY
TYPE SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THANKS FOR WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
645 AM UPDATE...
LATEST HIGH RES MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON
WAVE BEING ABLE TO INITIATE CONVECTION...INCLUDING THE
HRRR...RAP/RUC...AND WRFARW. OPERATIONAL 06Z NAM...00Z GEM...AND
EVEN SOMEWHAT THE 06Z GFS CONCUR ON AT LEAST THE GENERAL IDEA.
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY WITH LARGER AREA OF MORE
DETERMINISTIC 60-70 PERCENT POPS FROM FINGER LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NY ESPECIALLY 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME. ALSO
HIGH CHANCE POPS SINKING INTO NORTHERN TIER OF PA 20Z SUN-01Z MON
TIME FRAME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS...AREAS NORTH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY
FINALLY GOT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS...AND WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCES ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BELT OF WESTERLIES. MORE OF THE AREA
WILL GET INVOLVED IN THAT TODAY...THOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.
A LOOSELY DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ON THE KY/TN
BORDER...WHILE THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES CARRIES OVER FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. BETWEEN THOSE FEATURES...AN UPPER RIDGE STILL EXTENDS
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC STATES BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS LOSING ITS GRIP HOWEVER. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW
QUICKLY MOISTURE FILLS THE VOID OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG
THE RIDGE AXIS. IN ASSIGNING POPS TODAY...THE SREF APPEARS WAY
OVERDONE...AND UPSTREAM 00Z SUN SOUNDINGS IN BUFFALO NY AND WHITE
LAKE MI CONFIRM LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAN SUGGESTED BY
SREF. THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE A GRADIENT IN
RAIN CHANCES. IT CAN BE CONFIDENTLY STATED THAT THE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL HAVE PWATS AT LEAST AROUND AN INCH-AND-TWO-
THIRDS...VERSUS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE PWATS STAY UNDER AN
INCH-AND-A-HALF. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS...MODELS
DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND THUS INSTABILITY.
AS A RESULT OF THE HIGHER PWATS...MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE ON NORTHERN
ZONES HAVING MORE INSTABILITY...GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG...YET FARTHER
SOUTH IS MORE UNCERTAIN. ALSO...THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO SOME ALBEIT LIMITED FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES. I HAVE
KEYED IN ON WEAK VORTICITY WAVE THAT SHOWS UP ON GEM/NAM/WRFARW
MODELS WHICH WILL ENTER FINGER LAKES AROUND MIDDAY AND DRIFT
EASTWARD FROM THERE IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.
RESULTANT CONVECTION WILL HAVE A FIGHT AS IT TRIES TO MAKE
SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...WITH LESS FRIENDLY AIR MASS...AND THUS LOWER
POPS. THOUGH THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN THUNDER...SHEAR AND OTHER
PARAMETERS ARE LACKING AND THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT. SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ONLY HAS A
BROADBRUSHED 5 PCT CHANCE OF SEVERE IN AN AXIS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH PARTS OF OUR REGION AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WAS OVERALL JUST SLIGHTLY TOO WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...AND I SUSPECT THE SAME MAY BE TRUE TODAY
CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PROSPECTS FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. FOR HIGHS I BLENDED MAV/MET WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
LAV GUIDANCE. STILL A WARM AND HUMID DAY...WITH HIGHS 80S AREAWIDE
AND EVEN SOME LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS NEAR 90. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
LEFTOVERS OF UPPER LOW NOW OVER KY/TN BORDER...WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD AROUND COLLAPSING UPPER RIDGE...AND CARRY THROUGH OUR
REGION MONDAY. DESPITE THAT LITTLE BIT OF ENERGY...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY BE LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. DIURNAL
HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY MOSTLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY TO NEPA /THOUGH AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE AREAWIDE/.
COME TUESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO RETURN ABOVE 1.5
INCHES AND WE WILL ALSO AGAIN BE PENETRATED BY THE BELT OF
WESTERLIES AND EMBEDDED WAVES. UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WAVES AND
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES PREVENTED ME FROM GOING HIGHER THAN 40-50 PCT
POPS...BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE A FAIR BET.
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ROUGHLY 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. DEWPOINTS IN ABOUT THE
MID 60S MONDAY WILL SNEAK MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY...ALLOWING
HEAT INDICES TO ECLIPSE 90 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. DESPITE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...CAPES FAIRLY MODEST AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUCH AS
SHEAR ARE ONLY MARGINAL AT BEST...THUS OPPORTUNITY FOR AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS QUITE LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FLAT RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD. IMPULSES WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, WHILE
WARM/MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NY/PA TYPIFIED BY 850MB
TEMPS OF 16C TO 20C.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MILD TEMPERATURE PATTERN, WITH THE DAILY
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY, WHEN A TROF OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA DIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES PROJECTED AT
1000-2000 J/KG. A WEAK WAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST HRRR
CONCURS, BRINGING A LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH CENTRAL NY BETWEEN
18Z AND 22Z.
WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...TAFS WILL NOW
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT THE NY TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...MON THRU WED...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. MVFR VSBY AND
CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHRA OR TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...CMG/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1009 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE OUR TREND OF A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
PATTERN. WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...
FCST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. THAT SAID...MAIN FOCUS REMAINS
CENTERED ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AS
REGION WARMS WELL INTO THE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S IN A MODERATELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
SHOWING SYR AT 85 THIS HR AND HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A
DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME LOCATIONS.
LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
SHEAR AXIS LIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT CONTINUES SPINNING THIS HR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RUC LAYERED 500-300 MB VORTICITY
SHOWS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA SLOWLY CREEPING NORTH
TOWARDS OUR AREA. THAT SAID...MAIN UPPER FORCING FOR ANY
CONVECTION LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM THESE EMBEDDED FEATURES
WITH ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL FORCING POSSIBLY BEING SUPPLIED BY
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
MODELS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY. LATEST HIGH
RES MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER TODAY
AND CONSIDERING THAT THE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE FAIR WEAK IN
NATURE...HAVE ELECTED TO TRIM BACK POPS INTO THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ABOVE SAID...12Z BUF RAOB SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ALOFT...IF ANY CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...A FEW ROGUE PULSEY
TYPE SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THANKS FOR WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
645 AM UPDATE...
LATEST HIGH RES MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON
WAVE BEING ABLE TO INITIATE CONVECTION...INCLUDING THE
HRRR...RAP/RUC...AND WRFARW. OPERATIONAL 06Z NAM...00Z GEM...AND
EVEN SOMEWHAT THE 06Z GFS CONCUR ON AT LEAST THE GENERAL IDEA.
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY WITH LARGER AREA OF MORE
DETERMINISTIC 60-70 PERCENT POPS FROM FINGER LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NY ESPECIALLY 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME. ALSO
HIGH CHANCE POPS SINKING INTO NORTHERN TIER OF PA 20Z SUN-01Z MON
TIME FRAME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS...AREAS NORTH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY
FINALLY GOT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO OVERNIGHT DUE TO
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS...AND WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCES ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BELT OF WESTERLIES. MORE OF THE AREA
WILL GET INVOLVED IN THAT TODAY...THOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.
A LOOSELY DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ON THE KY/TN
BORDER...WHILE THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES CARRIES OVER FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. BETWEEN THOSE FEATURES...AN UPPER RIDGE STILL EXTENDS
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC STATES BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS LOSING ITS GRIP HOWEVER. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW
QUICKLY MOISTURE FILLS THE VOID OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG
THE RIDGE AXIS. IN ASSIGNING POPS TODAY...THE SREF APPEARS WAY
OVERDONE...AND UPSTREAM 00Z SUN SOUNDINGS IN BUFFALO NY AND WHITE
LAKE MI CONFIRM LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAN SUGGESTED BY
SREF. THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE A GRADIENT IN
RAIN CHANCES. IT CAN BE CONFIDENTLY STATED THAT THE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL HAVE PWATS AT LEAST AROUND AN INCH-AND-TWO-
THIRDS...VERSUS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE PWATS STAY UNDER AN
INCH-AND-A-HALF. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS...MODELS
DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND THUS INSTABILITY.
AS A RESULT OF THE HIGHER PWATS...MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE ON NORTHERN
ZONES HAVING MORE INSTABILITY...GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG...YET FARTHER
SOUTH IS MORE UNCERTAIN. ALSO...THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO SOME ALBEIT LIMITED FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES. I HAVE
KEYED IN ON WEAK VORTICITY WAVE THAT SHOWS UP ON GEM/NAM/WRFARW
MODELS WHICH WILL ENTER FINGER LAKES AROUND MIDDAY AND DRIFT
EASTWARD FROM THERE IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.
RESULTANT CONVECTION WILL HAVE A FIGHT AS IT TRIES TO MAKE
SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...WITH LESS FRIENDLY AIR MASS...AND THUS LOWER
POPS. THOUGH THERE IS FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL CONTAIN THUNDER...SHEAR AND OTHER
PARAMETERS ARE LACKING AND THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT. SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ONLY HAS A
BROADBRUSHED 5 PCT CHANCE OF SEVERE IN AN AXIS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH PARTS OF OUR REGION AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WAS OVERALL JUST SLIGHTLY TOO WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...AND I SUSPECT THE SAME MAY BE TRUE TODAY
CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND PROSPECTS FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. FOR HIGHS I BLENDED MAV/MET WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
LAV GUIDANCE. STILL A WARM AND HUMID DAY...WITH HIGHS 80S AREAWIDE
AND EVEN SOME LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS NEAR 90. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM UPDATE...
LEFTOVERS OF UPPER LOW NOW OVER KY/TN BORDER...WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD AROUND COLLAPSING UPPER RIDGE...AND CARRY THROUGH OUR
REGION MONDAY. DESPITE THAT LITTLE BIT OF ENERGY...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL ACTUALLY BE LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. DIURNAL
HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY MOSTLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY TO NEPA /THOUGH AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE AREAWIDE/.
COME TUESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO RETURN ABOVE 1.5
INCHES AND WE WILL ALSO AGAIN BE PENETRATED BY THE BELT OF
WESTERLIES AND EMBEDDED WAVES. UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WAVES AND
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES PREVENTED ME FROM GOING HIGHER THAN 40-50 PCT
POPS...BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE A FAIR BET.
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ROUGHLY 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. DEWPOINTS IN ABOUT THE
MID 60S MONDAY WILL SNEAK MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY...ALLOWING
HEAT INDICES TO ECLIPSE 90 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. DESPITE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...CAPES FAIRLY MODEST AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUCH AS
SHEAR ARE ONLY MARGINAL AT BEST...THUS OPPORTUNITY FOR AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS QUITE LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FLAT RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD. IMPULSES WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, WHILE
WARM/MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NY/PA TYPIFIED BY 850MB
TEMPS OF 16C TO 20C.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MILD TEMPERATURE PATTERN, WITH THE DAILY
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY, WHEN A TROF OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA DIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES PROJECTED AT
1000-2000 J/KG. A WEAK WAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST HRRR
CONCURS, BRINGING A LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH CENTRAL NY BETWEEN
18Z AND 22Z.
WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...TAFS WILL NOW
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT THE NY TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...MON THRU WED...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. MVFR VSBY AND
CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHRA OR TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...CMG/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID WEEK... AS A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS HOLDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED THROUGH EASTERN NC LAST EVENING
IS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA...AND THE BULK OF HEAVY RAIN ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK IS EXITING THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. IN ITS
WAKE...A WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDER STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. HRRR SIM
REFLECTIVITY SUGGEST PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY
LIFTS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...A BROAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PW
AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TONIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURES. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NC. A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT ITS NOT APPARENT HOW MUCH OF A
FOCUS THIS WILL BE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY SIMILARLY TO
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1000
J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. PW WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...SUGGESTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS CLOSER TO THE COAST...85-89. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOW CENTERED
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A WEAKER BUT MORE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
(WEST COAST EXCEPTED) BY TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A WEAK WNW STEERING
FLOW OVER NC AND POOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE WESTERLIES RETREAT
WELL TO THE NORTH. MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HIGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON WITH GFS-PROJECTED MLCAPE OF 2000-2800 J/KG
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING GIVEN PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.6-2.0 INCHES... 150-180
PERCENT OF NORMAL. AN MCV INDICATED BY THE MODELS OVER NEB EARLY
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS MI/IN/OH BY TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS ADDED DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM
DPVA (ALBEIT WEAK) COULD RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN
AND NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
40-50 PERCENT... CONTINUING AND SPREADING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING BACK DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT... AS
WE HANG ON TO A WARM MOIST AIR MASS AND AT LEAST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL...
INDICATIVE OF HIGHS 85-90 WITH SKIES VARYING BETWEEN PARTLY AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY. MILD LOWS OF 67-73 WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE MCV APPROACHES.
FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: EXPECT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST (PW OF 1.5-1.9 IN.) AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE (MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG) ENVIRONMENT EVEN EARLY IN THE DAY... WITH THE
PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL NC AND SUBTLE
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER ERN NC. THE WEAK WIND FIELD AND LACK OF DISTINCT
SHARP FEATURES TO FOCUS CONVECTION RESULTS IN A FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BUT LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF EXACTLY WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN
IN CENTRAL NC. PRECIP WATER REMAINS HIGH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND THE
GFS TRANSLATES THE STEADILY RISING THICKNESSES AND WARMING SURFACE
TEMPS TO GREATER INSTABILITY... 2200-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ESPECIALLY
FROM HIGHWAY 1 EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GOOD CHANCE POPS
FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND AS SHOULD BE THE CASE
TUESDAY... THE WEAK WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO MEANDERING AND
UNORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION. HIGHS 87-92 AND LOWS 69-73. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
EVOLUTION TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NOAM WILL OCCUR AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POWERFUL VORTEX OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEAR 47N/140W... WHICH EJECTS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE
RESULTING FALLING HEIGHTS OVER ONTARIO CULMINATE IN A CLOSED LOW
OVER MI OVER THE WEEKEND AND A TREND TOWARD DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRECIP WATER SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SHARPENING OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL NC AND AN
INCREASING WNW MID LEVEL FLOW... FACILITATING GREATER ORGANIZATION
OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS IMPROVING
SHEAR AND LITTLE EXPECTED CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE
OVER THE AREA... WILL HOLD ONTO DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS... MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES HOLD
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90. WARM LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...
CEILINGS AND VSBYS VARY WIDELY ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WITH PATCHY
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AMONG WHAT IS OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS. STRATUS AFFECTING KFAY AND KRWI WILL LIFT AND
EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS MORNING...REACHING VFR BY 13-14Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FROM THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN (KRDU/KFAY/KRWI )...WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERS.
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS...BUT CROSS SECTIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUGGEST VERY LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID WEEK... AS A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS HOLDS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED THROUGH EASTERN NC LAST EVENING
IS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA...AND THE BULK OF HEAVY RAIN ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK IS EXITING THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. IN ITS
WAKE...A WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDER STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. HRRR SIM
REFLECTIVITY SUGGEST PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY
LIFTS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...A BROAD
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PW
AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 80S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TONIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURES. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NC. A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT ITS NOT APPARENT HOW MUCH OF A
FOCUS THIS WILL BE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY SIMILARLY TO
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1000
J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. PW WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...SUGGESTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS CLOSER TO THE COAST...85-89. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOW CENTERED
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A WEAKER BUT MORE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
(WEST COAST EXCEPTED) BY TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A WEAK WNW STEERING
FLOW OVER NC AND POOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE WESTERLIES RETREAT
WELL TO THE NORTH. MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HIGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON WITH GFS-PROJECTED MLCAPE OF 2000-2800 J/KG
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING GIVEN PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.6-2.0 INCHES... 150-180
PERCENT OF NORMAL. AN MCV INDICATED BY THE MODELS OVER NEB EARLY
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS MI/IN/OH BY TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS ADDED DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM
DPVA (ALBEIT WEAK) COULD RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN
AND NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO
40-50 PERCENT... CONTINUING AND SPREADING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING BACK DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT... AS
WE HANG ON TO A WARM MOIST AIR MASS AND AT LEAST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. THICKNESSES SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL...
INDICATIVE OF HIGHS 85-90 WITH SKIES VARYING BETWEEN PARTLY AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY. MILD LOWS OF 67-73 WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE MCV APPROACHES.
FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: EXPECT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST (PW OF 1.5-1.9 IN.) AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE (MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG) ENVIRONMENT EVEN EARLY IN THE DAY... WITH THE
PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL NC AND SUBTLE
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER ERN NC. THE WEAK WIND FIELD AND LACK OF DISTINCT
SHARP FEATURES TO FOCUS CONVECTION RESULTS IN A FORECAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BUT LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF EXACTLY WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN
IN CENTRAL NC. PRECIP WATER REMAINS HIGH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND THE
GFS TRANSLATES THE STEADILY RISING THICKNESSES AND WARMING SURFACE
TEMPS TO GREATER INSTABILITY... 2200-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ESPECIALLY
FROM HIGHWAY 1 EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GOOD CHANCE POPS
FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND AS SHOULD BE THE CASE
TUESDAY... THE WEAK WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO MEANDERING AND
UNORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION. HIGHS 87-92 AND LOWS 69-73. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
EVOLUTION TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NOAM WILL OCCUR AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN RESPONSE TO A POWERFUL VORTEX OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEAR 47N/140W... WHICH EJECTS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND A MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE
RESULTING FALLING HEIGHTS OVER ONTARIO CULMINATE IN A CLOSED LOW
OVER MI OVER THE WEEKEND AND A TREND TOWARD DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRECIP WATER SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SHARPENING OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL NC AND AN
INCREASING WNW MID LEVEL FLOW... FACILITATING GREATER ORGANIZATION
OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS IMPROVING
SHEAR AND LITTLE EXPECTED CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE
OVER THE AREA... WILL HOLD ONTO DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS... MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES HOLD
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90. WARM LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM LIFR TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN HOW
QUICKLY LOW CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH IFR
CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP AROUND KFAY...AND SHOULD EXPAND
NORTHWARD THROUGH 09Z. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM KFAY TO KRWI TO KIXA.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY MOIST
TODAY...CAUSING CEILINGS TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER SUNRISE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 15-16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING BY 18Z WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
TIMING IS MUCH TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
959 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
CURRENTLY...AN LONE CELL WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MCLEAN COUNTY
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST 01Z HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND
DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT SO
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AS CURRENT CONVECTION IN CENTRAL MONTANA TRANSLATES EAST.
BULK SHEAR OVER THIS AREA SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THUS
HAVE KEPT SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST INTO THE FAR
NORTH CENTRAL TOWARD MORNING. FOG CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL WITH A
STEADY SOUTHEAST FLOW...BUT DO THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF
INCREASING LOW STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
UPDATE THIS EVENING DEALS MAINLY WITH EVENING CONVECTION. STILL
QUITE UNSTABLE THIS EVENING BUT MODELS SUGGEST WITHOUT
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TO INITIATE CONVECTION...THE CAP
WILL HOLD. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED JUST
NORTH OF BISMARCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTH IN CASE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MAKES IT UP TO
THE BORDER. IF WE COULD GET A CELL TO BREAK THE CAP WE COULD STILL
SEE A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BUT WITH A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE
THIS EVENING...ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOKS LESS LIKELY THAN IT DID
EARLIER IN THE DAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND DEVELOP LOW STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH A STEADY
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT...THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LIMITED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS NOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
LATEST HRRR...RAP...AND BOTH THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING
CONVECTION FIRING OFF ANYWHERE FROM NOW THROUGH 21Z OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS FOR
THESE AREAS. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET WITH THE MID LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION STILL IN PLACE. WIND DISCONTINUITY/WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS APPARENT WHEN LOOKING AT WIND AND DEWPOINT FIELDS.
MOISTURE IS CONVERGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE STRONGER. DEWPOINT TEMPS
LOWER FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAKER SFC WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. INCOMING S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
NEARING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION ONCE AFTERNOON HEATING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE CAP.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE EVENTUALLY WINDING
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE MANY AREAS...SO
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MENTION SEVERE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN
CASE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECOMES NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. MODELS ARE ALSO PUTTING THE
HEAVIEST QPF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AWAY FROM THE AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THEN WANE WEST TO EAST
AND END QUICKLY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE
WEDNESDAY A WESTERLY FLOW ENSUES WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. TRENDS WITH THE 12Z RUNS PUSH
PREVIOUS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
NOW INTO CANADA RESULTING IN AN OVERALL DRY SCENARIO. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. THEREAFTER...MOSTLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES NORTH WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WELL INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER A COMPENSATORY
NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH DAKOTA WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MANY SHORTWAVES WILL
TOP THE RIDGE AND SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHICH IS A COMMON THEME WITH RIDGE RUNNERS TOPPING THE
RIDGE THIS TIME OF YEAR. FAVORED AREAS WOULD BE THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS SHOWS A COUPLE OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THESE WAVES
FURTHER EAST THAN THE GFS...SO TOO UNCLEAR ON EXACT DETAILS AT THIS
TIME. WILL USE THE ALLBLEND WHICH CARRIES A SLIGHT MENTION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE OF 925MB RH AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS. THEREFORE BROUGHT A MENTION OF MVFR
CEILINGS TO ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEN BROUGHT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER TO ALL TAF SITES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FLOW
WILL SHIFT WEST AT KISN AND KDIK TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM FOR
THE PERIOD.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA ON ITS WAY INTO CANADA. THE MAIN SFC LOW
IS ALREADY IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA SEEING WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
LOW. THE RAIN BAND FROM THIS MORNING HAS LIFTING NORTH INTO
CANADA...AND SOME CLEARING HAS BEEN GOING ON ALTHOUGH WITH PRETTY
LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS CU HAS REDEVELOPED RAPIDLY. THERE HAS BEEN A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE WEST WINDS BRING IN DRIER AIR...BUT
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF HUMIDITY AND WITH SOME CLEARING
CAPE HAS REACHED AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WHILE
THE BEST LIFT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY HANGING AROUND THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT...AND THE RAP AND
HRRR SHOW SIGNS OF THIS ALTHOUGH STRENGTH DOES NOT SEEM IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP SOME 30-60 POPS GOING MAINLY NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE WE GO DRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A SFC TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK
UP TOWARDS THE UPPER TEENS C AND WITH PLENTY OF SUN WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS SHOW SOME INDICATION OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MODELS
SHOWING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LIFTING INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
KEPT SOME POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THINK THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS WILL BE
TUESDAY WHEN A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ND...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY ANYTHING OVERNIGHT
EVOLVES...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THAN 2000 J/KG OF
CAPE. CONTINUED TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IS A BIT EARLY FOR ANY SEVERE MENTION AT
THIS TIME.
SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL THERE
SHOULD BE A DRYING TREND AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PULLS OFF TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE LOW 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RETROGRADING AND AMPLIFYING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AT 500MB. AS A RESULT NW FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL MAKE FOR SEASONAL END OF JUNE TEMPERATURES
AND NEARLY CLIMO POPS AS THE TIMING OF ANY WEAK SHORT WAVES
FEATURE WILL NEED TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING TO INITIATE ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW...THUS THE LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALMOST DUE NORTH ALONG RED RIVER NEAR HCO WITH
TROUGH AND EDGE OF RAIN NOW THRU TVF. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE WITH DRIER AIR MIXING IN ON WESTERLY GUSTS 20 TO
30KTS...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
120 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
MAIN UPDATES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE TO AGAIN MODIFY SKY COVER
AND PRECIP/THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION...SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH CLOSE TO
THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE
STILL LOOKING GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
MAIN UPDATES WERE TO MODIFY SKY COVER AND PRECIP/THUNDER CHANCES
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES WERE
TRENDED DOWN A TAD NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION...SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS...OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY
STILL PRESENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THERE WERE MINOR UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY TRENDS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ERODE THE CAP
THIS AFTERNOON TO RELEASE WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...AS INDICATED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR MODEL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR TODAY.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AHEAD OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THE
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BECOME FOCUSED INTO MANITOBA. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECT SURFACE DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEPICTED BY THE 00
UTC 4KM WRF AND THE 06 UTC HRRR AREA WIDE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...ML CAPE VALUES NEAR
1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FADE WITH SUNSET...WITH FOG POSSIBLE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT.
DID CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION
FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAIN A BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. THE 00 UTC
NAM/ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL ALL AGREE ON GENERAL TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS IS LARGE...SO THERE IS NO EASY WAY TO PICK
THE SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION MOST LIKELY TO VERIFY. THUS...FORECASTS
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST FROM THEIR OUTLOOKS CALLS
FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER LOOKS TO FORM
AN MCS THAT PROPAGATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO REGENERATE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY
FOR ANOTHER ROUND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
THEREAFTER...00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON A MORE
DIURNAL NATURE FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DOES INITIATE AMIDST
STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
WILL MAINTAIN VCSH OR VCTS FOR ALL BUT KDIK THROUGH 00Z EARLY
THIS EVENING. SCT-BKN MVFR CU CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS SKIES CLEAR. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH CENTRAL AT KMOT NEAR AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SKIES WILL TREND VFR ALL
LOCATIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
ADJUSTED POPS AGAIN FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS THE MAIN RAIN BAND
LIFTS FURTHER NORTH...BUT EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN CWA AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM COMES OUT AND WITH A BIT
OF HEATING...SO KEPT POPS HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW MUCH CLEARING WE CAN GET THIS
AFTERNOON IN ORDER TO DESTABILIZE AS THE BETTER SHEAR STARTS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ORDER TO GET ANY SEVERE. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT
IN SOME AREAS AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE STAYED CLOUDY AND RAINY AND
WILL ONLY RECOVER UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE PRECIP
HAS LIFTED OUT OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR HAS MOVED
IN...AND THAT AREA SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING LATER ON TODAY.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
PRECIP REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM DEVILS LAKE TOWARDS MAYVILLE. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
ALSO AND THINK THAT DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW KICKS SLOWLY OUT. SEVERITY LATER ON
WILL DEPEND ON DESTABILIZATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTH
FOR ANYTHING GOING UNDER THE MAIN UPPER LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR A FEW
HOURS...BEFORE ACTIVITY INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE SEVERE STORM THREAT TODAY
AND MORE STORMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR INITIALLY THEN SIDE
WITH THE CONSISTENT GFS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT AN MCS TO BE ONGOING THIS MORNING MOVING FROM
SW TO NE. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING IN
THE SOUTH...AND THIS AREA IS QUITE SATURATED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 12Z. THERE COULD BE A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE MN COUNTIES ALONG A
COLD FRONT...MLCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AMPLE DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR. THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION WITH GENERAL LIGHT WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION WITH AREAL
COVERAGE NOT CERTAIN.
ON MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND +18C. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH GENERAL
SW FLOW ALOFT. TIMING STILL REMAINS A QUESTION...BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT COULD ALSO INCREASE AT LEAST IN THE WEST ON TUE...AND WILL
FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE EASTERN US WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. PATTERN BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME.
ECMWF BEGINS THE PERIOD AS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT FAST BIAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED WITH FASTER SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WHILE
THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS AND WILL SPEED
UP PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM TODAYS RUN AND MAY KEEP YESTERDAYS RUN
WITH SOME TIME PERIODS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THIS PERIOD FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALMOST DUE NORTH ALONG RED RIVER NEAR HCO WITH
TROUGH AND EDGE OF RAIN NOW THRU TVF. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE WITH DRIER AIR MIXING IN ON WESTERLY GUSTS 20 TO
30KTS...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
NEW WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AT HARWOOD...WEST FARGO...
KINDRED...ABERCROMBIE WITH AN INCREASE OF FLOODING TO MODERATE NOW
EXPECTED AT WAHPETON AND FARGO AS THE AREA RIVERS RESPOND TO LAST
NIGHTS RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.
ALSO...MAPLETON WARNING WAS CANCELLED AS THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE EARLIER TODAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1050 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
MAIN UPDATES WERE TO MODIFY SKY COVER AND PRECIP/THUNDER CHANCES
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES WERE
TRENDED DOWN A TAD NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION...SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS...OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY
STILL PRESENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THERE WERE MINOR UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY TRENDS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ERODE THE CAP
THIS AFTERNOON TO RELEASE WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...AS INDICATED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR MODEL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR TODAY.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AHEAD OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THE
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BECOME FOCUSED INTO MANITOBA. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECT SURFACE DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEPICTED BY THE 00
UTC 4KM WRF AND THE 06 UTC HRRR AREA WIDE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...ML CAPE VALUES NEAR
1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FADE WITH SUNSET...WITH FOG POSSIBLE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT.
DID CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION
FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAIN A BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. THE 00 UTC
NAM/ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL ALL AGREE ON GENERAL TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS IS LARGE...SO THERE IS NO EASY WAY TO PICK
THE SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION MOST LIKELY TO VERIFY. THUS...FORECASTS
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST FROM THEIR OUTLOOKS CALLS
FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER LOOKS TO FORM
AN MCS THAT PROPAGATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO REGENERATE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY
FOR ANOTHER ROUND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
THEREAFTER...00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON A MORE
DIURNAL NATURE FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DOES INITIATE AMIDST
STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
WILL MAINTAIN VCSH OR VCTS FOR KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH 00Z
EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AS SKIES CLEAR. MVFR ALSO AT KMOT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SKIES WILL TREND VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY EARLY
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
DID CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MUCH LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NEGATES
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS
AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1008 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE PRECIP
HAS LIFTED OUT OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR HAS MOVED
IN...AND THAT AREA SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING LATER ON TODAY.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
PRECIP REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM DEVILS LAKE TOWARDS MAYVILLE. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
ALSO AND THINK THAT DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW KICKS SLOWLY OUT. SEVERITY LATER ON
WILL DEPEND ON DESTABILIZATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTH
FOR ANYTHING GOING UNDER THE MAIN UPPER LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR A FEW
HOURS...BEFORE ACTIVITY INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE SEVERE STORM THREAT TODAY
AND MORE STORMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR INITIALLY THEN SIDE
WITH THE CONSISTENT GFS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT AN MCS TO BE ONGOING THIS MORNING MOVING FROM
SW TO NE. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING IN
THE SOUTH...AND THIS AREA IS QUITE SATURATED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 12Z. THERE COULD BE A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE MN COUNTIES ALONG A
COLD FRONT...MLCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AMPLE DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR. THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION WITH GENERAL LIGHT WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION WITH AREAL
COVERAGE NOT CERTAIN.
ON MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND +18C. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH GENERAL
SW FLOW ALOFT. TIMING STILL REMAINS A QUESTION...BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT COULD ALSO INCREASE AT LEAST IN THE WEST ON TUE...AND WILL
FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE EASTERN US WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. PATTERN BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME.
ECMWF BEGINS THE PERIOD AS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT FAST BIAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED WITH FASTER SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WHILE
THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS AND WILL SPEED
UP PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM TODAYS RUN AND MAY KEEP YESTERDAYS RUN
WITH SOME TIME PERIODS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THIS PERIOD FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
AN AREA OF IFR CIGS/VSBY HAS DEVELOP NEAR BJI AND SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND A COOL FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD END ALONG
WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
RIVER RISES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WAHPETON IS
NEARING A CREST NEAR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BASIN THIS
MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL LOCAL RISES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
TODAY ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR A FEW
HOURS...BEFORE ACTIVITY INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE SEVERE STORM THREAT TODAY
AND MORE STORMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR INITIALLY THEN SIDE
WITH THE CONSISTENT GFS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT AN MCS TO BE ONGOING THIS MORNING MOVING FROM
SW TO NE. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING IN
THE SOUTH...AND THIS AREA IS QUITE SATURATED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 12Z. THERE COULD BE A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE MN COUNTIES ALONG A
COLD FRONT...MLCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AMPLE DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR. THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION WITH GENERAL LIGHT WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION WITH AREAL
COVERAGE NOT CERTAIN.
ON MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND +18C. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH GENERAL
SW FLOW ALOFT. TIMING STILL REMAINS A QUESTION...BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT COULD ALSO INCREASE AT LEAST IN THE WEST ON TUE...AND WILL
FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE EASTERN US WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. PATTERN BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME.
ECMWF BEGINS THE PERIOD AS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT FAST BIAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED WITH FASTER SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WHILE
THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS AND WILL SPEED
UP PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM TODAYS RUN AND MAY KEEP YESTERDAYS RUN
WITH SOME TIME PERIODS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THIS PERIOD FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
AN AREA OF IFR CIGS/VSBY HAS DEVELOP NEAR BJI AND SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND A COOL FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PRECIP SHOULD END ALONG
WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
RIVER RISES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WAHPETON IS
NEARING A CREST NEAR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BASIN THIS
MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL LOCAL RISES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
TODAY ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THERE WERE MINOR UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY TRENDS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ERODE THE CAP
THIS AFTERNOON TO RELEASE WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...AS INDICATED BY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR MODEL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR TODAY.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AHEAD OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THE
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BECOME FOCUSED INTO MANITOBA. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECT SURFACE DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEPICTED BY THE 00
UTC 4KM WRF AND THE 06 UTC HRRR AREA WIDE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...ML CAPE VALUES NEAR
1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FADE WITH SUNSET...WITH FOG POSSIBLE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT.
DID CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION
FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAIN A BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. THE 00 UTC
NAM/ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL ALL AGREE ON GENERAL TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS IS LARGE...SO THERE IS NO EASY WAY TO PICK
THE SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION MOST LIKELY TO VERIFY. THUS...FORECASTS
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST FROM THEIR OUTLOOKS CALLS
FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER LOOKS TO FORM
AN MCS THAT PROPAGATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO REGENERATE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY
FOR ANOTHER ROUND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
THEREAFTER...00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON A MORE
DIURNAL NATURE FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DOES INITIATE AMIDST
STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
AT KISN AND KMOT THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE NEAR SATURATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING...POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
15 UTC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
DID CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MUCH LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NEGATES
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS
AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
351 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR TODAY.
CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AHEAD OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THE
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BECOME FOCUSED INTO MANITOBA. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECT SURFACE DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEPICTED BY THE 00
UTC 4KM WRF AND THE 06 UTC HRRR AREA WIDE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...ML CAPE VALUES NEAR
1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FADE WITH SUNSET...WITH FOG POSSIBLE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT.
DID CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION
FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAIN A BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. THE 00 UTC
NAM/ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL ALL AGREE ON GENERAL TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON THE TIMING/LOCATION OF
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH COMPLEX
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS IS LARGE...SO THERE IS NO EASY WAY TO PICK
THE SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION MOST LIKELY TO VERIFY. THUS...FORECASTS
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST FROM THEIR OUTLOOKS CALLS
FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER LOOKS TO FORM
AN MCS THAT PROPAGATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO REGENERATE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY
FOR ANOTHER ROUND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
THEREAFTER...00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON A MORE
DIURNAL NATURE FOR THE ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DOES INITIATE AMIDST
STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
AT KISN...KMOT AND KJMS THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING
SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE NEAR SATURATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING...POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
DID CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MUCH LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NEGATES
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS
AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
348 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE SEVERE STORM THREAT TODAY
AND MORE STORMS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR INITIALLY THEN SIDE
WITH THE CONSISTENT GFS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT AN MCS TO BE ONGOING THIS MORNING MOVING FROM
SW TO NE. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING IN
THE SOUTH...AND THIS AREA IS QUITE SATURATED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 12Z. THERE COULD BE A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE MN COUNTIES ALONG A
COLD FRONT...MLCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AMPLE DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR. THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION WITH GENERAL LIGHT WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG
IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION WITH AREAL
COVERAGE NOT CERTAIN.
ON MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND WARM DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND +18C. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH GENERAL
SW FLOW ALOFT. TIMING STILL REMAINS A QUESTION...BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT COULD ALSO INCREASE AT LEAST IN THE WEST ON TUE...AND WILL
FEEL LIKE SUMMER WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE EASTERN US WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. PATTERN BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME.
ECMWF BEGINS THE PERIOD AS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT FAST BIAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED WITH FASTER SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WHILE
THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS AND WILL SPEED
UP PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM TODAYS RUN AND MAY KEEP YESTERDAYS RUN
WITH SOME TIME PERIODS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THIS PERIOD FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013
BESIDES SOME THUNDER THREAT...MAIN ISSUE NOW IS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
THAT IS MOVING WEST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE ERN FCST AREA. HOW
FAR THAT WILL GET IS UNKNOWN BUT COULD BE INTO VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT SO DID INCLUDE SOME IFR OR LOW END MVFR CIGS DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN AND STORMS EARLY
ON DVL REGION WILL SPREAD INTO THE RRV 10Z-17Z THEN INTO ERN FCST
AREA AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL TURN WEST BEHIND FRONT
MIDDAY TO AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20+KTS AT DVL-FAR-GFK PSBL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
RIVER RISES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WAHPETON IS
NEARING A CREST NEAR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BASIN THIS
MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL LOCAL RISES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH
HEAVY RAIN RATES EXPECTED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ014-024-
028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ002-003-
022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
925 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BOW ECHO APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SOME DURING THE PAST HOUR AS IT
HAS NOW MOVE OVER THE IWX RADAR SITE. WILL SEE IF SPC PUTS OUT ANY
NEW WATCHES FURTHER EAST. NOT GETTING ANY HELP FROM THE
HRRR AND RUC WHICH HAVE BEEN CLUELESS ALL EVENING. WILL KEEP
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHER POPS IN WEST WHERE
PRECIP MORE IMMINENT.
LOWS WILL BE ABOVE GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NEW DAY...SAME CONCERNS. UPPER FLOW IS NOW FAIRLY ZONAL THANKS TO
THE FLATTENING RIDGE. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROF DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. IT
THEN GETS TRAPPED IN THE AREA AND THEN REINFORCED FOR THE WEEKEND
BUT THAT WILL BE COVERED IN THE SECTION BELOW. FOR TUESDAY MODELS
SHOW CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECTING MORE
COVERAGE THAN TODAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH 30-40% SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MODELS SHOW THICKNESS PACKING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LIKELY GENERATION POINT FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST. CONCERNED THAT WE HAVE CONVECTION
MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST LASTING INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST PA AND NERN OHIO AND
MID/HIGH CHANCE ELSEWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. THURSDAY AN UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE
AREA WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
POPS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS WEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY THEN
AMPLIFIES AS IT SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WILL CARRY A 30-50 PERCENT
POP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DECREASING TREND FOR SUNDAY AS
DRIER AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY...AROUND 80...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE
70S OVER THE WEEKEND. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY CLOSER TO RAW MODEL VALUES INSTEAD OF MEX GUIDANCE
WHICH IS LIKELY RUNNING TOO HIGH AS IT TRENDS TOWARDS CLIMO IN THE
LATER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THINGS ARE CURRENTLY QUIET AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WATCHING THE BOWING LINE OF STORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. HAVE TIMED THIS FEATURE TO REACH KTOL AND KFDY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME WEAKENING AS THE STORM APPROACHES. FOR
NOW JUST HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER BUT IF THE LINE HOLDS TOGETHER
WILL BEEF UP TAFS TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS. WILL TIME THE STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME HINT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING TOWARD DAYBREAK IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. LOT`S OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO SO
NOT MUCH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXCEPT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. S TO SW
FLOW WILL BECOME GUSTY ON TUESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY
MORNING MIST/HAZE THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY FROM THE PLAINS. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING
TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIFFICULT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
755 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
WEAKENING COMPLEX OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
IN THE ZONAL FLOW BROUGHT A CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
AND APPEARS THAT IT WILL REACH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS EVENING. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IS LEFT BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING BAND OF CONVECTION...WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OF THE ILN AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A DECAYING
MCV ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS CLOUD COVER.
LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 3000 J/KG SFC BASED CAPE JUST TO THE
WEST OF OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WITH THE RAP INDICATING THAT
DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH FORCING WILL THERE BE
FROM THE DECAYING MCV...IF ANY...TO PRODUCE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY IN MIND...AM FORECASTING CHANCE
POPS TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES INITIATE.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK ACROSS OUR AREA...NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. SOME CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN ONGOING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WHERE LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW IS STRONGER.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE. WENT JUST BELOW GUIDANCE BASED ON BIASES FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WITH SOME A WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS BEING
NOTICED IN OUR TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS DISTURBANCE
ON TUESDAY. LATEST RAP/NAM/ARW INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
CROSSING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TUESDAY. THE QUESTION
IS HOW ARE MODELS HANDLING SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO
THE REGION...AND ITS AFFECT ON A DEVELOPING A CAP ACROSS OUR AREA
TUESDAY. MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK CAP AROUND 5 KFT AGL
BASICALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
AND CONVECTION FROM INITIATING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM/SREF DO NOT BUY INTO THIS
SOLUTION...AND HAVE A MUCH WEAKER...AND BREAKABLE CAP IN PLACE.
BASED ON THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS CURRENT CONVECTIVE
REGIME...AND THE FACT THAT A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN
PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY. WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR ALL ZONES WITH 30 POPS IN THE SOUTH AND 40 POPS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HIGH TEMPERATURES...BARRING ANY
DEBRIS CLOUDS TO START OFF WITH...WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EVEN FURTHER GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST IN THE ZONAL
FLOW. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...IN
CASE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAKES IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL RESULT
WITH THE CONTINUED WARM AIRMASS. AM ANTICIPATING ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH...AND POSSIBLE
RETURN FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MANY OF OUR ZONES...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE RURAL EASTERN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY PCPN WILL
BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL TREND TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST AT
THE ONSET BUT HANG ON TO SOME LOWER POPS JUST TO COVER THE THREAT.
ASSUMING THERE ARE NOT TOO MANY LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS...WE SHOULD
THEN BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE NICELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IF
TEMPERATURES CAN PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN ML CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO POSSIBLY 3000 J/KG RANGE.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD LEAD TO A DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. WITH INCREASING DYNAMICS ACROSS
THE AREA AND FAVORABLE TIMING...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. PCPN CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS FOR THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WHERE THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE LAST TO MOVE THROUGH.
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
CARVE OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONABLE FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. MODELS ARE
SHOWING VARIOUS WEAK SHORT WAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT
IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT ANY KIND OF TIMING. AS A RESULT...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE AND GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...THINK THE
BEST WAY TO GO IS TO TREND THE POPS DIURNAL BUT KEEP THEM ON THE LOW
SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW WHICH PUSHED EAST OF ILN/S FA BY LATE AFTN. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS BOUNDARY...EARLY EVENING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND VOID OF
CONVECTION. COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER NRN IL PUSHING INTO NW INDIANA EXPECTED
TO PUSH EAST INTO NRN OHIO OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH ONLY
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LVL CLOUDS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN TAF SITES.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CONVECTION
MAKES IT. HAVE KEPT THE TAF SITES DRY OVERNIGHT BUT IF THIS
COMPLEX TRACKS A LTL FURTHER SOUTH...THEN KDAY...KCMH AND KLCK WUD
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. LIGHT WIND FLOW AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MSTR WL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT KILN
WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK. IN THE HUMID AIRMASS EXPECT INSTBY
TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN HOURS. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
VCSH AT THE NRN TAF SITES WHERE BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST WITH OUTFLOW
FROM TONIGHT CONVECTION LAYING OUT.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOST SUPPORT AND DISSIPATED ABOUT
HALFWAY ACROSS THE CWA. AIRMASS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. HRRR AND RUC SHOW SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER LWR MI
WITH A VERY WEAK S/W WORKING ESE INTO THE LERI AREA THIS EVENING
THEN SOME PART OF THE COMPLEX OVER NW IL MAKING IT AROUND THE LERI
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING BUT TRY AND
DEPICT SOME BETTER TIMING.
LOWS WILL BE ABOVE GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NEW DAY...SAME CONCERNS. UPPER FLOW IS NOW FAIRLY ZONAL THANKS TO
THE FLATTENING RIDGE. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROF DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. IT
THEN GETS TRAPPED IN THE AREA AND THEN REINFORCED FOR THE WEEKEND
BUT THAT WILL BE COVERED IN THE SECTION BELOW. FOR TUESDAY MODELS
SHOW CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECTING MORE
COVERAGE THAN TODAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH 30-40% SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MODELS SHOW THICKNESS PACKING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LIKELY GENERATION POINT FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST. CONCERNED THAT WE HAVE CONVECTION
MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST LASTING INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST PA AND NERN OHIO AND
MID/HIGH CHANCE ELSEWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. LAKE
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. THURSDAY AN UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE
AREA WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
POPS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS WEST. TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY THEN
AMPLIFIES AS IT SLOWLY PIVOTS EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WILL CARRY A 30-50 PERCENT
POP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DECREASING TREND FOR SUNDAY AS
DRIER AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY...AROUND 80...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE
70S OVER THE WEEKEND. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY CLOSER TO RAW MODEL VALUES INSTEAD OF MEX GUIDANCE
WHICH IS LIKELY RUNNING TOO HIGH AS IT TRENDS TOWARDS CLIMO IN THE
LATER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THINGS ARE CURRENTLY QUIET AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WATCHING THE BOWING LINE OF STORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA. HAVE TIMED THIS FEATURE TO REACH KTOL AND KFDY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME WEAKENING AS THE STORM APPROACHES. FOR
NOW JUST HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER BUT IF THE LINE HOLDS TOGETHER
WILL BEEF UP TAFS TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS. WILL TIME THE STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME HINT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING TOWARD DAYBREAK IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. LOT`S OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO SO
NOT MUCH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXCEPT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. S TO SW
FLOW WILL BECOME GUSTY ON TUESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY
MORNING MIST/HAZE THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY FROM THE PLAINS. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING
TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIFFICULT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
733 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EARLY SEASON BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
CARVED OUT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELED THE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE SERN ZONES AS THE
BEST OF THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. RAP INDICATES CAPE
STILL EXCEEDS 1000J...BUT 3 HOUR CHANGES SHOW A STEADY
DECREASE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WE LOSE THE SUN AND HEATING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT I TRIMMED POPS BACK TO JUST
SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 9-10PM.
ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS ON TAP IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING CONVECTION.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS MCV`S
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE W-E THROUGH THE CWA DURING
THE DAYTIME HEAT.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM HUMID DAY WITH TEMPS ALMOST A CARBON
COPY OF TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO CONVERGE AS THE SREF AND GEFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PWATS INTERACTING WITH A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO NWRLY MID- UPPER FLOW. THIS
SHOULD BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND POSITION VARIANCES...HOWEVER THE
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS THIS WEEK. ALL THE MODELS HARE SHOWING A
STRONG FRONT EXTENDING FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
FRONT THROUGH THAT IS CORRESPONDING WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A FAST WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH
THE EC AND GEFS SHOWS WEST TO SWRLY WINDS AT 850 MB AVERAGING
AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS DURING THAT PERIOD WITH A QUASI- STNRY
EAST/WEST SFC BOUNDARY MEANDERING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE REGION.
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROBABILITY
OF PWATS TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA. THE SPEED SHEAR
PROVIDED BY THE LLJ ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA. SO HAVE CONTINUED THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF POPS FROM
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS ENTER INTO THE PICTURE. COOLER WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE PRESENCE OF COOLER AIR ALOFT AND
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS COULD MAKE IT SHOWERY IN THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND COULD CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY. READINGS WILL SLOWLY COOL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPS LIKELY RETREATING TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST. A FEW
LINGERING VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABOUT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEFORE ABOUT 9 PM. VFR CONDITIONS NEARLY EVERYWHERE.
WEAK WINDS AND FLOW ABOUT HIGH PRESSURE...SOME PATCH HAZE AND FOG
ABOUT...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED. MOST AIRPORTS IN OUR REGION
RECEIVED NO RAIN TODAY. MOST OF THESE SITES WILL LIKELY STAY VFR
TO SOME MVFR IN HAZE/FOG. KLNS WENT TO 3SM THIS AM AND THERE WAS
RAIN OVER LANCASTER COUNTY...THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING
TO 3-5SM AFTER ABOUT 2 AM.
ANY FOG/HAZE SHOULD BURN OFF FAST...AN HOUR OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 9 AM.
THE RING-OF-FIRE EFFECT AND THE DISTURBANCE OVER IL/WI THIS EVENING
SUGGESTS WE SHOULD GET SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PUT VCTS IN ALL AT THIS TIME EARLIER IN THE WEST
THAN IN THE EAST BY 1-3 HOURS.
THIS PATTERN OF SOME MVFR OVERNIGHT AND AFTERNOON SCATTERED
THUNDER SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL A WAVE APPROACHES FRI/SAT BRINGING
MORE ORGANIZED RAIN/SHOWER POTENTIAL. THEN COOLER WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...AREAS OF AM MVFR FOG/HAZE POSS. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS. PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSRA FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
727 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EARLY SEASON BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
CARVED OUT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELED THE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE SERN ZONES AS THE
BEST OF THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. RAP INDICATES CAPE
STILL EXCEEDS 1000J...BUT 3 HOUR CHANGES SHOW A STEADY
DECREASE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AS WE LOSE THE SUN AND HEATING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT I TRIMMED POPS BACK TO JUST
SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 9-10PM.
ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY...WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS ON TAP IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING CONVECTION.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS MCV`S
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE W-E THROUGH THE CWA DURING
THE DAYTIME HEAT.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM HUMID DAY WITH TEMPS ALMOST A CARBON
COPY OF TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO CONVERGE AS THE SREF AND GEFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING PWATS INTERACTING WITH A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO NWRLY MID- UPPER FLOW. THIS
SHOULD BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS EACH
AFTERNOON.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING AND POSITION VARIANCES...HOWEVER THE
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS THIS WEEK. ALL THE MODELS HARE SHOWING A
STRONG FRONT EXTENDING FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
FRONT THROUGH THAT IS CORRESPONDING WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A FAST WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH
THE EC AND GEFS SHOWS WEST TO SWRLY WINDS AT 850 MB AVERAGING
AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS DURING THAT PERIOD WITH A QUASI- STNRY
EAST/WEST SFC BOUNDARY MEANDERING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE REGION.
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROBABILITY
OF PWATS TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA. THE SPEED SHEAR
PROVIDED BY THE LLJ ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA. SO HAVE CONTINUED THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF POPS FROM
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS ENTER INTO THE PICTURE. COOLER WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE PRESENCE OF COOLER AIR ALOFT AND
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS COULD MAKE IT SHOWERY IN THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND COULD CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY. READINGS WILL SLOWLY COOL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPS LIKELY RETREATING TO SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST.
THERE STILL WERE STORMS IN CENTRAL PA. SEVERAL NEAR KLNS AND A
THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE KSEG AREA BETWEEN 530 AND 6
PM THIS EVENING. STILL SOME STORMS EAST OF KIPT. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW POP-UP STORMS NEAR KAOO AND NEAR AND EAST OF KBFD OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM.
VFR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THESE VERY ISOLATED STORMS. THEN VFR
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT PATCHY AREAS OF HAZE AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. MVFR/VFR SHOULD
BE THE MORE GENERAL RULE OVERNIGHT. ANY MVFR WILL BURN OFF FAST
TUESDAY MORNING. THEN WE CAN START THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ISSUE UP AGAIN ABOUT NOON.
PREVIOUS FOR EXTENDED LOOKS GOOD STILL: THIS PATTERN OF HAZE/FOG AT
NIGHT AND AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
SHOWERS/THUNDER COULD BE FRIDAY IF THE CURRENT FORECAST FRONT AND
TROUGH ARRIVE AS ADVERTISED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...AREAS OF AM MVFR FOG/HAZE POSS. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS. PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSRA FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GRUMM/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1043 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
EVENING RAOBS REALLY WARM ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH COOLER
READINGS TO THE NORTHEAST REFLECTED IN THE EARLIER LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA. LOOKS MUCH AS
IF A GOOD PORTION OF THE LATER EVENING WILL BE QUIET...AS ACTIVITY
OUT WEST STRUGGLES A BIT PUSHING INTO THE WARM/DRY LAYER ALOFT TO
THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM ADVECTION WING ONCE
AGAIN WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS IT EVOLVES
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT AS WESTERN PLAINS WAVE
PUSHES EASTWARD. VERY LIKELY THAT THERE COULD END UP AN AREA
BETWEEN THE DWINDLING WESTERN ACTION AND THAT LIFTING/DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST...AS SEVERAL OF THE LATER AFTERNOON HRRR RUNS HAVE
SUGGESTED. HOWEVER...LAST TWO RUNS OF 00Z AND 01Z HAVE BEEN
COMPLETE OPPOSITES WITH ONE EXTREMELY ACTIVE OVER A LARGE AREA...
AND ANOTHER WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY. MADE A FEW CHANGES TO
DECREASE POPS IN PART OF THE AREA BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN
AREAS OF PRECIP...AND DID INCREASE POPS SOMEWHAT EARLY TUESDAY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS WILL BE LAST AREA OF LINGERING WAVE.
OTHER INTERESTING NOTE...A WEAK CONVECTIVE HEAT BURST THIS EVENING
AT PHILIP...AND IF WE COULD GET A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO THE AREA...THEN DISSIPATE...WOULD CERTAINLY BE A SET
UP FAVORABLE TO GET SUCH AN EVENT IN OUR CWA GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR KLBF.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
THE VANISHING OF NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS
TAKEN PLACE PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS EAST OF I 29 LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLOW START TO CLEARING AND HEATING PRETTY MUCH
GUARANTEES A SLOW START TO STORMS THIS EVENING. THE GFS...NAM...
AND GEM ALL SHOW A SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...
CURRENTLY NOTED ENTERING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FOCUS HAS
SHIFTED TO AN EXPECTATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY STILL LINGERING AT
DAYBREAK...INSTEAD OF EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASING
STEADILY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WE HAD IN THE MORNING FORECAST. PATH
AND TIMING WILL DEPEND ON WHERE AND HOW EXTENSIVELY STORMS DEVELOP
WEST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH...BUT WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WOULD AT LEAST REFLECT A HIGHER CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK SOUTH AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY GENERAL OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST.
REFINEMENT WILL BE MADE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND THE PATH OF
STORMS BECOMES EVIDENT. HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE IN OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS THE PRECIPITATION RIDES OVER A BIT
OF CAPPING POTENTIAL. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL GO WITH THE
GUIDANCE IDEA OF MODEST AMOUNTS...THAT IS LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT
THIS OF COURSE WILL LIKELY TO TURN OUT WITH DRASTIC SHORT RANGE
VARIATIONS EVEN IF THE GENERAL RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS GOOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH IS VERY
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING FOR...MAINLY MID TO
UPPER 60S.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DECREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND WARMING SHOULD HELP KEEP STORMS AWAY FOR MOST OF TUESDAY.
HOWEVER SOME CHANCE WILL BE RESTORED MAINLY NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AS BOUNDARIES PROVIDED BY NIGHTTIME STORMS MAY LINGER FOR A
FOCUS...AND LATE DAY STORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY NORTHEAST FOR THE
SAME REASON. FURTHER SOUTH...IT WILL BE HARD TO GET ANYTHING GOING
MOST OF THE DAY DUE TO THE WARMING AND CAPPING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A DISTINCT WAVE APPROACHING WHICH COULD TURN THAT AROUND...AGAIN
THOUGH NOT UNTIL FAIRLY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY THOUGH ANY 90 PLUS HIGHS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED
AND FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AND SOME OF
OUR EASTERN ZONES MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE THAT SOME RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...JUST LIKELY NOT
EVERYWHERE THROUGHOUT OUR NORTH AND EAST...THEREFORE PLACED
COVERAGE POPS IN THOSE AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF UNCERTAINTY.
THE HIGHEST ML CAPES EXIST TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP AREAS. BUT
STILL...ML CAPES OF OVER 1000 J/KG ARE NOTED IN OUR NORTH AND EAST
COUPLED WITH 0 TO 3KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ONLY AROUND
+10C...BELIEVE A LOW END SEVERE THREAT EXISTS IN OUR NORTH AND
EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
OR HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD THOUGH.
OTHERWISE AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...OUR WELL ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD WHICH WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN OUR WEATHER. A
COLD FRONT...MAINLY IN NAME ONLY...WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH MIXING POTENTIAL AND NOT ANY BONAFIDE COOL AIR
BEHIND THE WAVE...DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF COOLING ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S STILL PREVAILING. DEW POINTS WILL BE DOWN THOUGH AT
LEAST WEST OF I 29. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
OOZING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE WESTWARD...THERE IS
SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A WAVE DOWN OUR AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SPAWN SOME ACCAS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE IS BASED AT 700MB...AND THE SOUNDINGS AND
HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS DO SHOW A PRETTY GOOD INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE 12Z NAM BLANKETS JUST ABOUT OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER I CHOSE TO KEEP THE SMALL POPS
IN OUR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ZONES WHERE THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE 700MB DEFORMATION TAKES PLACE PROVIDING MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
AND THIS IS JUXTAPOSED WITH A 700MB THERMAL GRADIENT GOING FROM
+9C TO +12C IN THAT AREA. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL STILL BE KIND OF
WARM...WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 COMMON.
THEN THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD...WHILE DEEPENING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.. THIS CREATES A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOWING A LOT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FILL IN DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THUS REALLY COOLS OFF OUR
850MB TEMPERATURES IN A BIG WAY. BY SUNDAY...THE ECMWF HAS +10C TO
+14C AT 850MB IN OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GFS EVEN COOLER.
THEREFORE A COOLING TREND IS IN ORDER. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTERACTING WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
THIS WEEKEND. THE POPS ON DAY 7 MONDAY ARE WISHY WASHY AND WERE
MAINLY BASED ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SOME PREVIOUS VERSION OF THE ECMWF. THE
NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS IDEA WITH THE LARGE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING JUST TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
CONVECTIVE CHANCES RATHER DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS
EVENING...WITH NEW MODEL RUN INCONSISTENCIES...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER MORNING
CONVECTION EXITS THE AREA...WILL SEE A BREAK BEFORE POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 LATER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...BRIEF REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
EFFECTED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...MJF
LONG TERM...MJF
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1005 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
EVENING RAOBS REALLY WARM ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH COOLER
READINGS TO THE NORTHEAST REFLECTED IN THE EARLIER LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA. LOOKS MUCH AS
IF A GOOD PORTION OF THE LATER EVENING WILL BE QUIET...AS ACTIVITY
OUT WEST STRUGGLES A BIT PUSHING INTO THE WARM/DRY LAYER ALOFT TO
THE EAST. LIKELY TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM ADVECTION WING ONCE
AGAIN WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS IT EVOLVES
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT AS WESTERN PLAINS WAVE
PUSHES EASTWARD. VERY LIKELY THAT THERE COULD END UP AN AREA
BETWEEN THE DWINDLING WESTERN ACTION AND THAT LIFTING/DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST...AS SEVERAL OF THE LATER AFTERNOON HRRR RUNS HAVE
SUGGESTED. HOWEVER...LAST TWO RUNS OF 00Z AND 01Z HAVE BEEN
COMPLETE OPPOSITES WITH ONE EXTREMELY ACTIVE OVER A LARGE AREA...
AND ANOTHER WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY. MADE A FEW CHANGES TO
DECREASE POPS IN PART OF THE AREA BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN
AREAS OF PRECIP...AND DID INCREASE POPS SOMEWHAT EARLY TUESDAY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS WILL BE LAST AREA OF LINGERING WAVE.
OTHER INTERESTING NOTE...A WEAK CONVECTIVE HEAT BURST THIS EVENING
AT PHILIP...AND IF WE COULD GET A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO THE AREA...THEN DISSIPATE...WOULD CERTAINLY BE A SET
UP FAVORABLE TO GET SUCH AN EVENT IN OUR CWA GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR KLBF.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
THE VANISHING OF NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS
TAKEN PLACE PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS EAST OF I 29 LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLOW START TO CLEARING AND HEATING PRETTY MUCH
GUARANTEES A SLOW START TO STORMS THIS EVENING. THE GFS...NAM...
AND GEM ALL SHOW A SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...
CURRENTLY NOTED ENTERING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE FOCUS HAS
SHIFTED TO AN EXPECTATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY STILL LINGERING AT
DAYBREAK...INSTEAD OF EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASING
STEADILY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WE HAD IN THE MORNING FORECAST. PATH
AND TIMING WILL DEPEND ON WHERE AND HOW EXTENSIVELY STORMS DEVELOP
WEST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH...BUT WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WOULD AT LEAST REFLECT A HIGHER CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK SOUTH AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY GENERAL OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST.
REFINEMENT WILL BE MADE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND THE PATH OF
STORMS BECOMES EVIDENT. HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE IN OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS THE PRECIPITATION RIDES OVER A BIT
OF CAPPING POTENTIAL. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL GO WITH THE
GUIDANCE IDEA OF MODEST AMOUNTS...THAT IS LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT
THIS OF COURSE WILL LIKELY TO TURN OUT WITH DRASTIC SHORT RANGE
VARIATIONS EVEN IF THE GENERAL RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS GOOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH IS VERY
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING FOR...MAINLY MID TO
UPPER 60S.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DECREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND WARMING SHOULD HELP KEEP STORMS AWAY FOR MOST OF TUESDAY.
HOWEVER SOME CHANCE WILL BE RESTORED MAINLY NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AS BOUNDARIES PROVIDED BY NIGHTTIME STORMS MAY LINGER FOR A
FOCUS...AND LATE DAY STORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY NORTHEAST FOR THE
SAME REASON. FURTHER SOUTH...IT WILL BE HARD TO GET ANYTHING GOING
MOST OF THE DAY DUE TO THE WARMING AND CAPPING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A DISTINCT WAVE APPROACHING WHICH COULD TURN THAT AROUND...AGAIN
THOUGH NOT UNTIL FAIRLY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY THOUGH ANY 90 PLUS HIGHS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED
AND FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AND SOME OF
OUR EASTERN ZONES MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE THAT SOME RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...JUST LIKELY NOT
EVERYWHERE THROUGHOUT OUR NORTH AND EAST...THEREFORE PLACED
COVERAGE POPS IN THOSE AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF UNCERTAINTY.
THE HIGHEST ML CAPES EXIST TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP AREAS. BUT
STILL...ML CAPES OF OVER 1000 J/KG ARE NOTED IN OUR NORTH AND EAST
COUPLED WITH 0 TO 3KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ONLY AROUND
+10C...BELIEVE A LOW END SEVERE THREAT EXISTS IN OUR NORTH AND
EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
OR HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD THOUGH.
OTHERWISE AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...OUR WELL ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD WHICH WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN OUR WEATHER. A
COLD FRONT...MAINLY IN NAME ONLY...WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH MIXING POTENTIAL AND NOT ANY BONAFIDE COOL AIR
BEHIND THE WAVE...DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF COOLING ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S STILL PREVAILING. DEW POINTS WILL BE DOWN THOUGH AT
LEAST WEST OF I 29. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
OOZING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE WESTWARD...THERE IS
SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A WAVE DOWN OUR AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SPAWN SOME ACCAS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE IS BASED AT 700MB...AND THE SOUNDINGS AND
HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS DO SHOW A PRETTY GOOD INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE 12Z NAM BLANKETS JUST ABOUT OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER I CHOSE TO KEEP THE SMALL POPS
IN OUR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ZONES WHERE THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE 700MB DEFORMATION TAKES PLACE PROVIDING MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
AND THIS IS JUXTAPOSED WITH A 700MB THERMAL GRADIENT GOING FROM
+9C TO +12C IN THAT AREA. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL STILL BE KIND OF
WARM...WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 COMMON.
THEN THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD...WHILE DEEPENING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.. THIS CREATES A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOWING A LOT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
FILL IN DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THUS REALLY COOLS OFF OUR
850MB TEMPERATURES IN A BIG WAY. BY SUNDAY...THE ECMWF HAS +10C TO
+14C AT 850MB IN OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GFS EVEN COOLER.
THEREFORE A COOLING TREND IS IN ORDER. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTERACTING WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
THIS WEEKEND. THE POPS ON DAY 7 MONDAY ARE WISHY WASHY AND WERE
MAINLY BASED ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SOME PREVIOUS VERSION OF THE ECMWF. THE
NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS IDEA WITH THE LARGE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING JUST TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
MISSIOURI RIVER CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...THEN LIFT TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THE TAF SITES. MOST
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY MID
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT GENERALLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...MJF
LONG TERM...MJF
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE PLATEAU EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS CONVECTION CSV VICINITY INTO THE EVENING...WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANCE BNA/CKV. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MORE ABUNDANT AS
WELL WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT BNA/CKV...WITH
CEILINGS/VSBYS EVEN LOWER CSV. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY
13-14Z MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013/
UPDATE...CELLS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, WHERE SURFACE HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHEST. HRRR APPEARS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY, AND IT SUGGESTS
NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL GO AHEAD AN INCREASE POP`S
ALONG THE PLATEAU FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND LEAVE ISOLATED IN FOR
EVERYONE ELSE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013/
AVIATION...
AFTER LOCAL 4SM BR DISSIPATES EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...UNLESS IMPACTED BY A STRONG
STORM THEN MVFR VIS MAY BE RESULT IN A BRIEF DOWNPOUR. EXPECT
THE DIURNLAL CU THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS TO REDEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AFTER 16Z THIS MORNING...THEN
DISSIPATE SOMETIME AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED CHANCES AT BEST FOR STRONG
STORMS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1036 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...CELLS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU, WHERE SURFACE HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHEST. HRRR APPEARS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY, AND IT SUGGESTS
NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL GO AHEAD AN INCREASE POP`S
ALONG THE PLATEAU FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND LEAVE ISOLATED IN FOR
EVERYONE ELSE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013/
AVIATION...
AFTER LOCAL 4SM BR DISSIPATES EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...UNLESS IMPACTED BY A STRONG
STORM THEN MVFR VIS MAY BE RESULT IN A BRIEF DOWNPOUR. EXPECT
THE DIURNLAL CU THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS TO REDEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AFTER 16Z THIS MORNING...THEN
DISSIPATE SOMETIME AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED CHANCES AT BEST FOR STRONG
STORMS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
224 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SCOPE PPINE AS OF 07Z FOLLOWING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER
DAVIDSON COUNTY BACK BEFORE MIDNIGHT. 850 MBAR DEWPOINTS POOLED
ACROSS DAVIDSON COUNTY ON THE RUC BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z POSSIBLY
CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORMATION OF THE STORM. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS SPINNING OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE. UK/NAM/GFS/GFSENSEMBLE
AND ECMWF ALL SHOW THIS LOW LIFTING NORTH TODAY WITH BROAD UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN US. THIS MEANS A SUMMER PATTERN
WITH BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US WITH TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN US...BOTH EURO/ENSEMBLE AND GFS SHOW THIS DEVELOPING. WE
ARE BASICALLY LOOKING AT SUMMER TYPE CONVECTION THAT COULD ALSO OCCUR
NOCTURNALLY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN US ON THURSDAY WE DO HAVE A FRONT DROPPING DOWN THIS WAY
BUT SEEMS TO HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING VERY FAR SOUTH. TEMPS DO
LOOK TO BACK OFF A LITTLE BY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WARM
DAYS AND NOT MUCH RELIEF AT NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 90 70 88 70 / 20 20 30 30
CLARKSVILLE 90 69 87 69 / 20 20 20 20
CROSSVILLE 84 65 83 65 / 20 20 30 30
COLUMBIA 90 69 89 70 / 20 20 30 30
LAWRENCEBURG 90 68 90 69 / 20 20 30 30
WAVERLY 90 69 88 70 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
319 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
JUST ONE MORE DAY OF THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT THE REGION HAS
BEEN UNDER FOR OVER A WEEK NOW.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MENTIONABLE...CONTINUE TO DECLINE AS DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOW 0.79
INCHES...WHICH IS 92 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT A FAR CRY FROM THE 1
PLUS INCH VALUES WE/VE SEEN LATELY. IN ADDITION...IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE IS
SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
COVERAGE OF STORMS VERY LIMITED. HOWEVER...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE
THAT THE RAP HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SHOWS MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP EITHER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TOMORROW...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DRY
AND HYBRID DOWNBURSTS LEADING TO STRONG WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH VERY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD BRINGING A DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
FAVORING HIGHER MAX TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES...WHICH
HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN...WHILE KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE A FEW DEGREES LOWER DUE TO THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THESE DIFFERENCES MAY BE
NEGLIGIBLE AS THE SOILS DRY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHOWING A
PERSISTENT RIDGE CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WAS SHOWN IN THE GFS TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED IN
THE 12Z RUN. THUS...STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HOT
AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
JOHNSON
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...ANY ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF TERMINALS. SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS OR ALTOCUMULUS WILL BE THE ONLY CLOUDS OTHER THAN
CIRRUS FOR THIS FORECAST. WIND SHIFT LINE WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA WILL CAUSE VARIABILITY IN SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION AT NORTHERN TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 22 OR 23Z
TODAY...WHEN SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS RESUME AND COMMENCE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT. FOR KAMA...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT OCCURRING BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z
MONDAY. VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.
NOTE TO USERS OF SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM RICK HUSBAND INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT KAMA...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM WITH DATA LINE HAS PREVENTED
LONG-LINE DISSEMINATION OF SURFACE OBS. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORM AT
KAMA ASOS IS FUNCTIONING PROPERLY WITH CONTINUOUS MONITORING OF ALL
ELEMENTS BY AMARILLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST STAFF.
COCKRELL
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW
IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD BE BELOW 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20 MPH...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH RESULTED IN LIGHTER WINDS TODAY WILL BE A FACTOR TOMORROW AS
WELL. THOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS WE SEE A DRIER PATTERN...NO
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME AS WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 97 68 95 68 98 / 20 5 5 5 0
BEAVER OK 98 71 97 72 99 / 10 20 20 20 0
BOISE CITY OK 100 65 100 68 101 / 10 10 5 5 0
BORGER TX 99 70 96 71 99 / 20 10 10 10 0
BOYS RANCH TX 100 70 98 68 102 / 20 5 5 5 0
CANYON TX 98 68 96 68 98 / 20 5 10 10 0
CLARENDON TX 96 68 94 70 96 / 20 20 20 20 0
DALHART TX 101 64 101 64 102 / 10 5 5 5 0
GUYMON OK 99 69 99 68 100 / 10 5 10 10 0
HEREFORD TX 99 67 94 66 98 / 20 5 5 5 0
LIPSCOMB TX 96 71 96 73 99 / 20 20 20 20 0
PAMPA TX 95 68 94 69 98 / 20 20 20 20 0
SHAMROCK TX 97 70 95 72 99 / 10 20 20 20 0
WELLINGTON TX 99 71 97 72 97 / 10 20 20 20 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013
.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THUNDER CHANCES MAY DEVELOP
NEAR KLBB AGAIN SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NOT CERTAIN
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE TAFS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013/
UPDATE...
RETAINED ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING ONLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE AT LEAST BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAS CONFIRMED MOST
TRENDS THAT THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE. UPDATED FOR LOWER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REMOVAL OF SEVERE WORDING FOR THIS
EVENING. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013/
UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORM OPPORTUNITIES APPEAR DIMINISHING WITH DECREASING
CUMULUS FIELD TO OUR SOUTHWEST...OVERSPREADING HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES...AND STILL 40 TO 60 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME. LATEST RAP SPREADS
EVEN HIGHER INHIBITION AIRMASS INTO THE AREA BY 02Z-03Z WITH
LATEST RUN INDICATING ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO....WHILE THE HRRR HAS BEEN FAR OVERDONE AND TOO FAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH...BUT AT LEAST HAS BEEN PLAYING DOWN
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. CONVECTIVE
ENERGY SHOULD IT BE RELEASED AND COMBINED WITH 30-35 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS YET...SO
WE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW THUNDER CHANCES FOR NOW.
RMCQUEEN
AVIATION...
VFR WITH MODERATE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DOMINATE. THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR ONLY MARGINAL AT THIS POINT
MAINLY FOR KLBB THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL NOT INCLUDE MORE THAN A
VICINITY MENTION IN THE KLBB TAF FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS REMAINS ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AND AGAIN ON STORM CHANCES LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH LOCALLY AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT
WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW INCREASING SUPPORT/MOISTENING
APPROACHING THROUGH NM AND AZ. WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH A
DRYLINE CURRENTLY TIGHTENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND ESPECIALLY JUST
EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND IMPROVING 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE
WEATHER RISK INTO THIS EVENING...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. IN ADDITION...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW...PARTICULARLY
IF ANY MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION CAN BE ACQUIRED /WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE/ AND GIVEN ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS IN PLACE...A LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL EXIST. IN GENERAL...THIS ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING TOO FAR OFF INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN THE STRONGER INHIBITION PROGGED THERE.
CONVECTION WILL WANE LATE TONIGHT BUT A SIMILAR SETUP WILL REDEVELOP
ON SUNDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS...PRIMARILY
ON THE CAPROCK. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST MOISTURE...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE LOWER THAN TODAY SO THIS MAY MODULATE STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST
TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY WELL INTO THE
90S.
LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTN. STILL APPEARS THAT
MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS UNDERNEATH SWLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEFORE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT RIDGE SHOULD SHUT
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AND INCREASED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT STAYING AWAY FROM EXTREME HEAT WITH THE HEIGHT
AND THERMAL RIDGES CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
STILL A SIGNAL IN THE MEDIUM RANGE OF PRECIP WORKING INTO THE FCST
AREA FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WWD TOWARD
UTAH AND ARIZONA ALLOWING DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
DISTURBANCES TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA. WILL NUDGE POPS TOWARD
SLIGHT CHANCE BUT KEEP THEM JUST BELOW MENTION WAITING TO SEE IF
FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS PATTERN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 94 66 93 66 / 10 20 20 20 20
TULIA 66 93 67 94 67 / 10 20 20 20 20
PLAINVIEW 68 92 67 93 69 / 10 20 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 65 94 68 92 69 / 10 20 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 70 94 69 94 71 / 10 20 20 20 20
DENVER CITY 66 97 69 94 69 / 20 20 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 65 95 68 92 69 / 20 20 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 72 96 70 96 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
SPUR 70 93 70 94 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 75 96 71 97 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1053 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
MCV OVER SOUTHERN MN AND 35 KT LLJ OVER IOWA HAS CAUSED CONVECTION TO
INCREASE OVER SE MN/NE IA THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT
AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
TIMING SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL REACH OUR FAR SW COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER PARTS OF C/EC WI OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS TO A HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH FROM
WAUTOMA TO OSHKOSH TO MANITOWOC. ONLY KEPT LOW-END POPS OVER
NC/FAR NE WI...WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH DLH/MQT.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT...AS MUCAPE HAS DECREASED
TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20 KTS.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENE OVER FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AREA OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS
DRAWING CLOSER TO THE SW WISCONSIN BORDER. CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS LIMITED HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...BUT
ML CAPES ARE APPROACHED A 1K J/KG...THOUGH STILL HAVE SOME CIN TO
OVERCOME. NOT SURE IF THIS INHIBITION WILL GET OVERCOME...SINCE
CLOUDS WILL ONLY THICKEN FROM HERE ON OUT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT...AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
TOMORROW.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PLACE THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF A TOMAHAWK TO
IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE
STORMS WILL HAVE SOME CIN TO OVERCOME DESPITE ML CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG. THINKING SEVERE CHANCES IS RATHER REMOTE SINCE THE NORTHERN
END OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOSTLY STRATIFORM. PWATS WILL BE
INCREASING OVER 1.50 INCHES SO THINKING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT EVEN THAT DOES LOOK THAT
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE REGION BY
LATE IN THE EVENING...AND THEY SHOULD LAY OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OR POINTS FURTHER SOUTH. RETURN FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SO THINKING ANY CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT WILL FALL ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAVE DROPPED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
MUGGY LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE DETAILS IN TOMORROWS WEATHER WILL REVOLVE
AROUND WHERE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES END UP AND HOW QUICKLY THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER. IF THE LAST FEW DAYS ARE ANY
INDICATION...IT COULD TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. BY THIS TIME...RETURN FLOW WILL BE
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DO NOT TRUST
MODEL SOUNDINGS MUCH...BUT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS RATHER POOR AROUND 20 KTS...SO WILL BE TOUGH TO GET
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MENTION
IF THE INSTABILITY RECOVERS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THERAFTER...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTIZE PRONOUNCED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS OF
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE STATE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN FALL OFF CLOSER TO NORMAL OR
PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TRYING
TO NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
NOT GOING TO BUCK TRENDS PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL BET AGAINST
QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ILLINOIS-WISCONSIN
MAKING MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT DESPITE RATHER ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO SUGGEST
THAT BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY THEN HEAD MORE EASTERLY MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AS LLJ
VEERS WSW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL TWEAK POPS SOMEWHAT TUESDAY
PLACING HIGHEST PROBABALITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND TAPERING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST. IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...FEEL BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABLITY SUPPORTAIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29 TUESDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES FORECAST
TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH...NEARLY 2SD ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
NIGHT...THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO THREAT. AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAQST AREA
WEDNESDAY EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME APPEARS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THUS FEEL
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL. AGAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY. WILL TREND MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY ASSUMING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. /EB/
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF HUGE UPPER RIDGE
OVER 110 W LATITUDE AND TROF OVER GREAT LAKES. THIS SPELLS A
SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS AOB NORMAL ACROSS REGION FRIDAY INTO
MONDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIGGING INTO TROF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE COOLISH WEATHER AROUND.
/JKL/.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
CONVECTION HAS STEADILY INCREASED OVER SE MN/NE IA THIS EVENING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF C/EC WI
OVERNIGHT...THEN EXIT EASTERN WI EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS IN THE ATW/GRB TAFS LATE TONIGHT.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WI...BUT SOME
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE RHI TAF SITE. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE REST OF THE PCPN FCST...BUT THINK THAT MOST OF THE TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER
SOUTHERN WI. DID MENTION A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSTMS AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
933 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
MCV OVER SOUTHERN MN AND 35 KT LLJ OVER IOWA HAS CAUSED CONVECTION TO
INCREASE OVER SE MN/NE IA THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT
AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
TIMING SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL REACH OUR FAR SW COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER PARTS OF C/EC WI OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS TO A HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH FROM
WAUTOMA TO OSHKOSH TO MANITOWOC. ONLY KEPT LOW-END POPS OVER
NC/FAR NE WI...WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH DLH/MQT.
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT...AS MUCAPE HAS DECREASED
TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20 KTS.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENE OVER FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AREA OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS
DRAWING CLOSER TO THE SW WISCONSIN BORDER. CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS LIMITED HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...BUT
ML CAPES ARE APPROACHED A 1K J/KG...THOUGH STILL HAVE SOME CIN TO
OVERCOME. NOT SURE IF THIS INHIBITION WILL GET OVERCOME...SINCE
CLOUDS WILL ONLY THICKEN FROM HERE ON OUT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT...AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
TOMORROW.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PLACE THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF A TOMAHAWK TO
IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE
STORMS WILL HAVE SOME CIN TO OVERCOME DESPITE ML CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG. THINKING SEVERE CHANCES IS RATHER REMOTE SINCE THE NORTHERN
END OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOSTLY STRATIFORM. PWATS WILL BE
INCREASING OVER 1.50 INCHES SO THINKING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT EVEN THAT DOES LOOK THAT
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE REGION BY
LATE IN THE EVENING...AND THEY SHOULD LAY OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OR POINTS FURTHER SOUTH. RETURN FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SO THINKING ANY CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT WILL FALL ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAVE DROPPED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
MUGGY LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE DETAILS IN TOMORROWS WEATHER WILL REVOLVE
AROUND WHERE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES END UP AND HOW QUICKLY THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER. IF THE LAST FEW DAYS ARE ANY
INDICATION...IT COULD TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. BY THIS TIME...RETURN FLOW WILL BE
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DO NOT TRUST
MODEL SOUNDINGS MUCH...BUT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS RATHER POOR AROUND 20 KTS...SO WILL BE TOUGH TO GET
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MENTION
IF THE INSTABILITY RECOVERS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THERAFTER...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTIZE PRONOUNCED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS OF
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE STATE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN FALL OFF CLOSER TO NORMAL OR
PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TRYING
TO NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
NOT GOING TO BUCK TRENDS PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL BET AGAINST
QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ILLINOIS-WISCONSIN
MAKING MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT DESPITE RATHER ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO SUGGEST
THAT BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY THEN HEAD MORE EASTERLY MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AS LLJ
VEERS WSW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL TWEAK POPS SOMEWHAT TUESDAY
PLACING HIGHEST PROBABALITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND TAPERING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST. IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...FEEL BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABLITY SUPPORTAIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29 TUESDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES FORECAST
TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH...NEARLY 2SD ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
NIGHT...THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO THREAT. AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAQST AREA
WEDNESDAY EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME APPEARS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THUS FEEL
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL. AGAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY. WILL TREND MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY ASSUMING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. /EB/
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF HUGE UPPER RIDGE
OVER 110 W LATITUDE AND TROF OVER GREAT LAKES. THIS SPELLS A
SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS AOB NORMAL ACROSS REGION FRIDAY INTO
MONDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIGGING INTO TROF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE COOLISH WEATHER AROUND.
/JKL/.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
TSTM COMPLEX MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI. SEEING SOME SIGNS THAT
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER...AND THIS
COULD BE THE START OF ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY
PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF
THIS TSTM COMPLEX SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
SCT TSTMS POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED
TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO SEE IF THIS THINKING IS ON TRACK. FOR NOW...
HAVE LEFT THE RHI TAF DRY... ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MY GET CLOSE
EARLY THIS EVENING. DID ADD SOME IFR FOG AT RHI LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE. WATER
VAPOR AND 500 MB RAP SHOWS ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A STRONGER ONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT
AND THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MIDDAY TUESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.4 INCHES SHOULD INCREASE TO 1.75
INCHES BY SUNRISE AND NEAR 2 INCHES NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER BY
NOON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND BECOME MORE WEST LATE
TONIGHT. THEN THE SOUTHWEST 850 MB FLOW INCREASES AGAIN INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINS MAY STAY JUST WEST
AND SOUTH TONIGHT...IN AREA OF CURRENT 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
OR TUESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER STORMS MAY BE FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT CLOSER TO APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT...BUT MAY SEE SOME IFR
CIGS/FOG DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVELS. ALSO THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MORE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013/
VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
EXPECTING A WEAKENED VERSION OF IOWA COMPLEX TO TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST PORTION
OF IOWA COMPLEX WILL LIKELY RIDE THE MLCAPE GRADIENT IN NORTHERN
IL PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS...BUT SOME INCREASE INSTABILITY SNEAKING
BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE SRN COUNTIES. IN FACT 3 HOURLY MLCAPE
CHANGE WHILE GREATEST IN NRN IL...DOES SHOW AN AXIS INTO THE FAR
SOUTH. THIS CLOSE ENOUGH CALL IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR
THE SVR WATCH FROM SPC. LIKE LAST NIGHT THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE
DEGREE AND LOCATION OF REDEVELOPMENT BECOMES THE KEY QUESTION.
GETTING MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL OVER THE MAP FROM HEAVY RAINS...TO
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TO NEXT TO NOTHING. MODELS CONSENSUS OF 850
MILLIBAR JET CORE LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHERE WE NOTICED IT SUNDAY
PROGGD FOR 12Z THIS MORNING. AND GIVEN WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION IS
LAYING ITSELF OUT HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT IT MAY BE ANOTHER
GLANCING SHOT ONCE AGAIN. HRRR DOES SHOW SOME ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT. SO CERTAINLY WORTHY OF KEEPING THE WATCH GOING FOR
NOW.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EAST A BIT AND IS AIMED MORE
TOWARDS SOUTHERN WI. 500 MILLIBAR SHOWS PERIODIC VORTICITY MAXIMA
WAVERING THROUGH THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED
AS WELL...THOUGH OVERALL JET ACTION LOOKS PRETTY WEAK. CWASP NUMBERS
IN THE 60S...A FEW LOW 70S OFF THE NAM. BUT NOTHING EXTREME. WILL
KEEP HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY POPS GOING WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
STILL FAVORING CONVECTION DUE INSTABILITY AND RIPPLES IN THE FLOW.
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO
MEDIUM.
EVOLUTION FROM MOIST AND UNSTABLE NEAR-ZONAL WSW FLOW TO COOLER AND
DRIER NW FLOW BEGINS WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FROM THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND LOW THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BETTER FORCING FROM THERMAL ADVECTION PER NAM/GFS 850-700MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA FOLLOWS A FAMILIAR PATTERN OF LATE ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL IA INTO NRN IL...JUST BRUSHING SRN WI...WHICH FOLLOWS
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AND STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS AS
THEY VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WITH WAVE PASSAGE. HOWEVER
CONFIDENT FOR LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE IN CWA WITH LARGE SALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL CVA THAT WORKS ON UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING PROVIDED BY LOW TO MID-LAYER
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
FLOODING A CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION IN THIS MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WITH 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH PW/S OR ABOUT 160 PCT OF NORMAL.
BEST PERFORMING MODEL QPF FORECASTS BRING AREAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TO THE CWA...BUT ACTUAL AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH HIGHER WITH ANY MCS THAT MOVES ACROSS CWA.
KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH WITH BETTER OMEGA AS SFC LOW MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE ELSE...TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE LOW.
WITH EXPECTED CONVECTION AND AT LEAST A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD
DEBRIS WENT WITH BLENDED HIGHS THAT TEND TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH BY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ALL SHOW VORTICITY MAXIMA DROPPING THROUGH
EASTERN WI AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM SOUNDINGS LOOK
A BIT TOO GENEROUS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS...BUT LOW TO MID 80 TEMPS
WITH MID-UPPER 60 DEW POINTS STILL YIELD TALL SKINNY SURFACE-BASED
CAPE OF AT LEAST 600-800 J/KG...SO WILL HAVE CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
EAST...BUT LEAVE WESTERN AREAS DRY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIG EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND DROP A A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE REGION THAT
AIDS IN CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. INSTABILITY WITH THE 500 COLD POOL OVER THE
REGION AND VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL KEEP AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA TO HAVE GREATEST IMPACT
IN FAR SRN WI INTO EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOOKING TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THEN SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WHERE
REDEVELOPMENT BECOMES FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
QUITE DIVERGENT ON HOW THE LATE NIGHT CONVECTION PLAYS OUT. BUT IF
LAST NIGHT IS ANY INDICATION...SOME TSRA POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN MORE REDEVELOPMENT DURG TUE AFTN/EVE.
OVERALL...VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN ANY OF THE
HEAVIER STORMS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-
062-063-067>069.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
642 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENE OVER FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AREA OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS
DRAWING CLOSER TO THE SW WISCONSIN BORDER. CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS LIMITED HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY...BUT
ML CAPES ARE APPROACHED A 1K J/KG...THOUGH STILL HAVE SOME CIN TO
OVERCOME. NOT SURE IF THIS INHIBITION WILL GET OVERCOME...SINCE
CLOUDS WILL ONLY THICKEN FROM HERE ON OUT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT...AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
TOMORROW.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PLACE THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF A TOMAHAWK TO
IRON MOUNTAIN LINE. WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE
STORMS WILL HAVE SOME CIN TO OVERCOME DESPITE ML CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG. THINKING SEVERE CHANCES IS RATHER REMOTE SINCE THE NORTHERN
END OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOSTLY STRATIFORM. PWATS WILL BE
INCREASING OVER 1.50 INCHES SO THINKING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT EVEN THAT DOES LOOK THAT
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE REGION BY
LATE IN THE EVENING...AND THEY SHOULD LAY OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OR POINTS FURTHER SOUTH. RETURN FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SO THINKING ANY CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT WILL FALL ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAVE DROPPED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
MUGGY LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE DETAILS IN TOMORROWS WEATHER WILL REVOLVE
AROUND WHERE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES END UP AND HOW QUICKLY THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER. IF THE LAST FEW DAYS ARE ANY
INDICATION...IT COULD TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. BY THIS TIME...RETURN FLOW WILL BE
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DO NOT TRUST
MODEL SOUNDINGS MUCH...BUT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS RATHER POOR AROUND 20 KTS...SO WILL BE TOUGH TO GET
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MENTION
IF THE INSTABILITY RECOVERS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THERAFTER...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTIZE PRONOUNCED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS OF
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE STATE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN FALL OFF CLOSER TO NORMAL OR
PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TRYING
TO NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
NOT GOING TO BUCK TRENDS PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL BET AGAINST
QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ILLINOIS-WISCONSIN
MAKING MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT DESPITE RATHER ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO SUGGEST
THAT BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY THEN HEAD MORE EASTERLY MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AS LLJ
VEERS WSW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL TWEAK POPS SOMEWHAT TUESDAY
PLACING HIGHEST PROBABALITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND TAPERING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST. IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...FEEL BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABLITY SUPPORTAIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29 TUESDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES FORECAST
TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH...NEARLY 2SD ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
NIGHT...THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO THREAT. AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAQST AREA
WEDNESDAY EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME APPEARS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THUS FEEL
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL. AGAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY. WILL TREND MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY ASSUMING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. /EB/
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF HUGE UPPER RIDGE
OVER 110 W LATITUDE AND TROF OVER GREAT LAKES. THIS SPELLS A
SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS AOB NORMAL ACROSS REGION FRIDAY INTO
MONDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIGGING INTO TROF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE COOLISH WEATHER AROUND.
/JKL/.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
TSTM COMPLEX MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI. SEEING SOME SIGNS THAT
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER...AND THIS
COULD BE THE START OF ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY
PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF
THIS TSTM COMPLEX SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
SCT TSTMS POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED
TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO SEE IF THIS THINKING IS ON TRACK. FOR NOW...
HAVE LEFT THE RHI TAF DRY... ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MY GET CLOSE
EARLY THIS EVENING. DID ADD SOME IFR FOG AT RHI LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
614 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
AT 3 PM...A SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST IOWA. THIS LINE HAS WIPED OUT MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY THAT MANY OF 24.00Z AND 24.06Z MODELS WERE FORECASTING
TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. EVEN SOME OF THE 24.12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS LINE WELL...SO THEY ARE
TOO HIGH ON THEIR CAPES ACROSS IOWA. IN ADDITION...THIS LINE ALSO
DISRUPTED THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING LOOKS
MUCH LESS THAN WHAT IT WAS LOOKING LIKE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FOR OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS PERIOD
IS GOING TO MATERIALIZE. THE 24.12Z NAM WHICH HAD A SLIGHTLY
BETTER HANDLE ON THE SQUALL LINE PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH
TO THE MISSOURI AND IOWA BORDER...THUS ITS BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THE 925 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT HAS SHIFTED TOWARD SOUTHERN IOWA. IF THIS VERIFIES...
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD. EVEN THE LATEST RAP IS LEANING TOWARD THIS SCENARIO
TOO. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. WITH ITS PRECIPTABLE WATER
VALUE CLOSE TO 2.00 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS UP TO
4.5 KM...THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WITH SO MANY
DIVERSE MODEL SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO LOWER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SOME AND ALSO SHIFTED THE HIGHER CHANCES TO LATER IN THE NIGHT.
HOPEFULLY...THE 24.00Z MODELS WILL BE BETTER AT RESOLVING THE
STABLE LAYER THAT WAS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
INCREASE ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
NORTH THIS OCCUR. THE 24.18Z NAM AND 24.12Z GFS WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD FALL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. MEANWHILE
THE 24.12Z ECMWF AND GEM WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD
FALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WITH THE INITIAL CONDITIONS SO
MUDDLED...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD REMAINS UNCLEAR DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES WILL END UP FROM TONIGHT
AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF
HAVE THEIR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
THAT THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
IOWA...AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST WITH THE SHORT WAVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OVER 4 KM AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING.
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLOWLY
DROP TO AROUND 1.60 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS FALL
INTO THE 3 TO 3.5 KM RANGE. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN...THE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT THEY
ARE FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
LINGERING BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE I90 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS A SLOW EAST/SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH
SOME DECREASE IN THE REFLECTIVITY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A VCSH
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING. FOR LATER
TONIGHT...THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THIS...ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST.
WOULD TEND TO THINK THESE WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AS THE
BOUNDARY IS EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THIS TIME SUNDAY. THE
24.20Z HRRR DOES SHOW A LINE DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND MOVING
INTO THE AREA...BUT AT THE SAME TIME...IT IS LIFTING THE BOUNDARY
INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND NOT SURE HOW PLAUSIBLE OF AN OUTCOME THAT
IS. WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED DATA BASE FOR LATE
TONIGHT WILL HONOR THE HRRR SOLUTION AND SHOW VCTS FOR BOTH SITES
LATE TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS ALSO LOW AS THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS A PRETTY STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES INTO THE AREA. WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR ALL
DEPENDS ON THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
ON THIS RIGHT NOW TO EVEN INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IF THE
BOUNDARY DOES MOVE NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE INCLUDED
WITH LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS IN THE 24.12Z AND 24.18Z
MODELS...CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED ON THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH MANY RIVERS REMAINING EITHER HIGH OR ARE
FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MEANWHILE OTHER
MODELS HINT THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SUCH DIVERSE SPREADS IN THE MODELS...OPTED
NOT TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-
053>055-061.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
344 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
AT 3 PM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE THERE WAS ANOTHER CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BOTH THE 23.12Z ARW AND NMM DEVELOP A
LINE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LATTER BOUNDARY
BETWEEN 23.21Z AND 24.00Z. HOWEVER THEY ALSO HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG
OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND THE SPC SURFACE BASED CAPE IS CURRENTLY
ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG...SO THINKING THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON LIKE THE LAST 3 HOURLY RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN SHOWING.
FOR THIS EVENING...THE 23.12Z MESO /RAP...NMM...AND ARW/ AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE 850
MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 2 TO 3K MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE HRRR WAS
SUGGESTING A SIMILAR SCENARIO EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE
BACKED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. WITH THERE BEING SUCH AGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS OPTED TO KEEP A 20 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE GOING FOR THIS
AREA TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
FOR OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND NOW THE HRRR SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE HRRR SHOWS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 07Z. DUE TO THIS KEPT...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE 20 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS UP 4.5 KM...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...THUS...KEPT
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE ONLY QUESTION IN THE FORECAST IS WHETHER WE HAVE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING TOO FAST TOWARD SUNRISE.
ON MONDAY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE SHORT WAVE WILL
LINGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA. WITH MANY OF
THE MESO MODELS DRY FOR THE MORNING...DECIDED TO TREND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THE DRY SIDE. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM HAS IT DEVELOPING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IT MIGHT OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THERE BEING VERY LITTLE
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...DECIDED TO
COMPROMISE WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. LIKE
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS LESS THAN 40 KNOTS.
HOWEVER THE 0-3KM CONTINUES ABOVE 30 KNOTS...THUS COULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
COLD POOL DOMINANT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. WITH STRONG
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE REGION...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 2 INCHES...AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4 KM...EXPECT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN /POTENTIALLY
3 TO 5 INCHES/ TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MANY OF
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS BEING A BIT TOO FAR NORTH
LATELY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
MAY FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW YET
ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE REGION... PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 2 INCHES...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
EXCEEDING 4 KM...EXPECT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN /POTENTIALLY ANOTHER 3
TO 5 INCHES/ TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
TSRA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE
REMOVED THE TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON ADDING THESE BACK. IT APPEARS A VFR PERIOD IS WARRANTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS
GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND NORTHEAST IOWA...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT COULD RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES. SINCE THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES DURING THE LAST 3 DAYS...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WATER TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
ADDITION FLASH FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
EACH OF THESE EVENTS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THIS RAIN MAY FALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES TO BE
ISSUED FOR THESE TIME PERIODS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WIZ041>044-053>055-
061.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MNZ096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
SURFACE/UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA. ONGOING
CONVECTION DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW AHEAD OF DECAYING IOWA COMPLEX. NICE
LINE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A DRY EVENING FOR A WHILE. TRENDS IN HRRR SUGGEST
ACTIVITY WILL RE-FIRE LATER TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF A RENEWED 850
MILLIBAR JET LET. HOWEVER NOW LATCHING ONTO THE MISSOURI COMPLEX THIS
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT SKEWED FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO IOWA. THE 12Z SPC
4KM WRF ALSO SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE 850
JET...AND WOULD FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION. IN ADDITION MODELS
SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 250-300 MILLIBAR
JET MAX TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN LAKES. REALLY CONCERNED THAT MISSOURI
COMPLEX MAY STEAL OUR THUNDER BY DISRUPTING RETURN OOMPH OF LLJ THIS
FAR NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON THIS. AFTER COLLABORATING
WITH NEIGHBORS CONSENSUS IS TO HOLD ON TO THE WATCH. MODEL TRENDS
NOT SUGGESTING TRAINING TYPE REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD IT OCCUR...BUT
RATHER SCATTERED TYPE SHRA/TSRA...AND IT MAY ARRIVE VERY LATE.
GIVEN THE HEAVY AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE WATCH
AREA WE WON/T NEED A TEXTBOOK FLASH FLOOD SETUP TO LEAD TO POSSIBLE
ISSUES WITH FLOODING. SO WILL HANG ONTO THE WATCH FOR NOW...BUT
GIVEN MODEL VARIATION WITH WHERE LATER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS CONFIDENCE
IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS NOT THE GREATEST.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE MORNING 850 JET PEELS OFF AND SETS UP A
LULL IN CONVECTION WITH WEAK RIDGING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM AND
GEM SHOW A DRIER LOOK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SURGE
IN THE 850 JET DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST FOCUS
WILL BE FURTHER WEST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO KEEPING THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO GO AT THIS POINT.
.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LOW TO MEDIUM.
WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN ONTARIO SHORT WAVE PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT REACHES WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COULD BE ONGOING CONVECTION MONDAY EVENING WITH 850 MB WAA/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS/MCVS THAT ALL MODELS SHOW AT
DIFFERING TIMES/STRENGTHS FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS LOOKS
OVERDONE WITH DEEP LAYER MESOLOW CROSSING CENTRAL WI DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE IGNORED. BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING AN MCS IS
WESTERN CWA AS IT MAY TRACK WITH LOW-LEVEL JET AS IT FOCUSES ON SW
WI AS IT VEERS FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 06Z. LIKELY POPS IN
THE WEST TAPERING TO CHANCE IN THE EAST. WHILE PW/S NOT AS ROBUST AS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...STILL 1.3 INCHES TO 1.5 INCHES OR AROUND 135% OF
NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH SATURATED WESTERN CWA FOR
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
WITH LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF FAIRLY STATIONARY
SURFACE TROUGH WITH A STEADY SSW FEED OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
REGION. NEXT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX APPROACHES TUE EVENING...WITH 12Z NAM
TAKING DEAD AIM AT SRN WI WHILE GFS MORE SRLY AND FOCUSED ON MN/IA
THEN VEERING TOWARD WI OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENING. WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
EVOLUTION FROM NEAR-ZONAL FLOW TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINS AS
WEDNESDAY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FOLLOWED BY A DIGGING TROUGH THAT
DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GFS MUCH DEEPER AND COLDER THAN
ECMWF. STREAM OF VORTICITY MAXIMA THROUGH THE REGION KEEPS CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TRANSITION.
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE IN NW FLOW BETWEEN THE DEEPENING ERN U.S.
TROUGH AND A BROAD AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WEST BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LINE OF CONVECTION FROM EXTREME SRN WI INTO IL
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECTING LATE
NIGHT REDEVELOPMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR JET BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS.
THIS ACTIVITY PROGGD TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PERHAPS A LULL DEVELOPING LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-
062-063-067>069.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF WISCONSIN EXCEPT FOR FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME REMNANT STORMS FROM
AN EARLIER LINE OF CONVECTION ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF BEEFY CU DEVELOPING FARTHER
NORTH FROM WAUSHARA COUNTY TO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS IS
IN A REGION OF BUILDING ML CAPES FROM 1000-1400 J/KG. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...WITH LIFT VIA
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AM STILL EXPECTING STORMS TO
FIRE THOUGH IT MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS TO GO. ACTUAL FRONT
LIES ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND CLEARING SKIES ARE MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT..SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
CLEAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN IN THE EVENING. FORCING ALONG THE TAIL OF
THIS VORT AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW SCT STORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN IN THE EVENING. WINDS AT 700MB ARE
PRETTY STRONG AT 45 TO 50 KTS...SO ANY STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL AT
CREATING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. LOSS OF HEATING AND
EXITING OF THE TAIL OF THE VORT SHOULD LET THE CONVECTION DIMINISH
AND/OR EXIT BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT IS VERY WEAK AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT ALOFT...SO COULD SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT...MUCH NOT MUCH ELSE. WILL END POPS FROM
NW TO SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MONDAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE
MORNING. PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. NO CLEAR TRIGGERS UPSTREAM EITHER SO WILL GO WITH A DRY BUT
PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY. COME AFTERNOON...AN 86/69 PARCEL
OVER THE FOX VALLEY WILL RESULT IN 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND VERY
LITTLE CIN. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 90S AND DO NOT SEE A
TRIGGER...BUT PERHAPS THE LAKE BREEZE CAN CREATE THE NECESSARY
CONVERGENCE FOR A STORM OR TWO TO POP. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GREATER DISAGREEMENT THAN
THE LAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF A CLOSED LOW OVER WISCONSIN OR UPPER
MICHIGAN. AS FAR AS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY GOES IT LOOKS
LIKE THE GFS IS EXHIBITING SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PRODUCING A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY
OVERDONE AND PREFER THE FLATTER AND SLOWER UPPER SYSTEM THAT SHOULD
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE GFS ALSO FORECASTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH SEEMS OVERDONE
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT PATTERN. CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE GFS
AS IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE NAM BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER
AND WEAKER. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
AFTER THURSDAY THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
CONTINUED HEATING...STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT...THOUGH EXACT TIMING/IMPACT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. INSTABILITY
HAS BEEN SLOW TO BUILD THIS MORNING...SO THINKING THIS MAY BE A MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON THING...WHICH COULD ENTIRELY MISS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THOSE TAF SITES. BETTER CHANCES
APPEAR TO OCCUR OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP. BEHIND THE FRONT...MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY IMPACT N-C WISCONSIN TONIGHT. VSBYS TO ALL
FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE. LOOKING LIKE GOOD FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW AT THE MOMENT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1048 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.UPDATE...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO FFA AT THIS TIME. SURFACE/UPPER
LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE CONVECTION ACROSS
IA HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND...ESPECIALLY IN NRN IA. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN THE CLEAR AIR ACROSS SRN WI. HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY
INCREASES A BIT ON OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM AS IT HEADS INTO WI EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. 850 JET LIFTS
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER 500 FORCING ALSO TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SO WILL RELAY ON LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW OR CONVECTIVE
INDUCED VORT MAX FOR FORCING MECHANISM THIS AFTERNOON. ARRIVAL OF
SOUTHWEST 850 JET TONIGHT RENEWS THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
PC
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...ONGOING CONVECTION ACRS IA SHOWING
WEAKENING. HOWEVER AIRMASS ACROSS SRN WI UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL FOR
ONGOING PRECIP BAND TO REINTENSIFY OR AS MESO MODELS
SUGGEST...DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL TSRA LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS 850 LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES BETTER
ORIENTED TOWARDS SRN WI.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE RAPID DECAY OF
MCS OVERNIGHT. ONE ACTIVE AREA OF STORMS MOVING ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BUT EVEN THIS HAS SHOWN
DOWNWARD TREND AND SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE 12Z.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WE MAY HAVE
AN ISSUE AGAIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL COLD POOL. BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN AND WARMER HIGHS AND
TDS AROUND 70F SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL PRETTY MUGGY.
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SHIFTS WEST FOR A TIME TODAY SO IT LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY QUIET MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS AND NAM
HAVE A DRY POCKET MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY AND THERE
IS SUBTLE EVIDENCE OF THAT ON SATELLITE CURRENTLY.
THEN LOW LEVEL POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BRUSHES AREA TO THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET LEANS OVER
AGAIN. PATTERN OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS TOPPING RIDGE AXIS WITH AN
EAST-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION HAS THIS LOOKING MUCH
LIKE SERIES OF MADDOX MESOHIGH TYPE FLASH FLOOD EVENTS.
NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO 150-175% OF NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2.0". CORFIDI VECTORS HAVE THE OMINOUS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LOOK AS THEY HAVE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO HEAVY RAIN
THREAT SEEMS TO CONTINUE.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE THE LOOK OF A FAST MOVING LINE OF
STORMS...WIDESPREAD 4-8" RAINFALL OVER THE WEST THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS AND ONGOING FLOODING CALLS FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PER COORDINATION WITH ARX AND DVN WILL
START THIS IN THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON AND THEN RUN IT THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET SITS OVER
THE AREA WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
ADJUSTED THE QPF UP A BIT TONIGHT AND MONDAY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE
WESTERN HALF THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TO PUT HIGHEST AMOUNTS AND
HOW HIGH TO GO BUT LOCALLY 1-2" PER 12 HOURS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. WITH
1 HOUR FFG ONLY 1 TO 1.5" IN THE WEST WE WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE HILLY TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL AND MODEL TIMING/FEATURE DIFFERENCES CONTRIBUTE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FCST PERIOD. MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX TO BEGIN TRAVERSING THE CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ON ITS WAY TO
BEING PRIMED AS SEEN BY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SYNOPTIC ASCENT THAT IS PRESENT WITH Q-VECTOR DIVG AND LOW-LEVEL
WAA OCCURRING.
HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONCERN LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE PRESENCE OF OR
LACK OF LIFT/FOCUS...BE IT A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR SFC
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN EITHER MEAN LAYER OR MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW
POINTS FCST IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR
COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY BUT IT
DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 0Z TUESDAY...THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST HERE AS WELL. LLJ AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ON
SOUTHWEST IOWA. FOR POPS/WX WENT WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND CONVECTION UNCERTAINTY.
HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A CONCERN GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL/AT 1.5-1.8 INCHES AND CORFIDI VECTORS
EXHIBIT SLOW MOTIONS. ESPECIALLY IF THE HARDER HIT AREAS IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
925 HPA TEMPERATURES HAVE A BIT OF A SPREAD MONDAY WITH THE
ECMWF COOLER THAN THE NAM/GFS. ALSO...WE HAVE BEEN A BIT WARM THE LAST
FEW FCST IN REGARD TO HIGHS...SO WENT WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND
STAYED AWAY FROM THE HIGHER INDIVIDUAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. AFTER
WHICH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES WITH A 500 HPA TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER.
MODELS QUITE A BIT APART IN REGARD TO HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES WITH
THE GFS DIGGING NOTABLY STRONGER. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WED AND
OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AT THE END OF THE TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
OTHER THAN PESKY MVFR VISIBILITY DROPS IN LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MVFR AT KMSN TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY COULD STAY WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST WI
TAFS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
WITH ABOUT A 4 MB GRADIENT BETWEEN KGRB AND KUGN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
INLAND PENETRATION OF THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL AT KMKE IN THE 19-23Z PERIOD.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRAVEN
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
346 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA/HEAVY RAINS/SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS
WITH A TROUGH NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER. A COUPLE OF
BOUNDARIES/WEAKER TROUGHS EXTENDED EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND
WI/IL BORDER AND FROM NEAR KFSD TO NORTHWEST WI. THESE LAST TWO
LIKELY ARTIFACTS OF BOTH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THAT FROM LAST
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE
IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN IA BOUNDARY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING TSRA ACROSS EASTERN SD TO SOUTHERN WI.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER FAR NORTHEAST IA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WI WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT
NIGHT.
NO LARGE...GLARING ERRORS NOTED WITH 23.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...
THOUGH PLENTY OF SMALLER/MESO-SCALE DIFFERENCES IN THE 850-500MB
FIELDS. MUCH MORE THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHEN THE FCST AND
SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES ARE KEYED TO THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 23.00Z SHOWED THE MODEL RUNS OF 21.00Z
AND 22.00Z VERIFIED WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC...AT LEAST WITH
THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES. ALL EARLIER RUNS LOOKED TOO WEAK WITH
THE SHORTWAVE FEATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM MN/WI TO TX/CO.
EVEN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AT THE START...AT LEAST AT 500MB MODELS
QUITE SIMILAR FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH EXITING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO MAN/WESTERN ONT. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TROUGH/LOW AT 12Z MON ONCE IT IS IN MAN/ONT BUT THIS WELL NORTH
OF THE FCST AREA. MODELS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR WITH A SMALL SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHORTWAVE TO BE APPROACHING/CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY. CHECK OF
OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED MOST WERE A BIT WEAK WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NEB AND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN
IA. MOST WERE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MOISTURE
PLUME OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. PER WV IMAGERY AND REGIONAL
RADAR REFLECTIVITY...ECMWF LOOKED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE
SHORTWAVE DETAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS AGAIN GENERALLY
STRUGGLING WITH THE 00-06Z PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME BETTER IN
AREAS THAN OTHERS BUT OVERALL NO ONE MODEL LOOKED BETTER THAN THE
OTHERS. FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HEADED BY THE LOCAL
REGIONAL WRF MODELS...WHICH WERE BETTER AT DEPICTING THE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE MESO-SCALE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES...SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
CYCLE.
PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...FORCING FOR CONVECTION OVER THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING LOOKS TO WANE AS THE SD SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO MN. THIS
INCREASES THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND TAKES MORE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH IT...PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. ANY BREAK FROM THE
CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY IT PUSHES THE SFC-700MB TROUGH BACK TO THE
EAST/SOUTH ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE. AS THIS TROUGHING APPROACHES SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG IT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PW VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH
RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 3.5 TO 4KM...ANY TSRA WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH THE THREAT OF MORE HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. GIVEN THE PAST 2 NIGHTS OF HEAVY RAINS AND NO
ROOM TO PUT ANY MORE WATER...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
BUT CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM MON
MORNING. TRENDED RAIN CHANCES TOWARD 70 PERCENT WITH THE APPROACH/
PASSAGE OF THE SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ML CAPES IN THE 2K-3K RANGE THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHEAR
IS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER AT 15-30KTS. THIS WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH/FRONT...FAVORABLE FORCING AND LOWER LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WITH MORE ORGANIZED TSRA. SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS.
APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER BREAK LATER TONIGHT/MON MORNING WITH THE MAIN
FORCING/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHED EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA...
BUT NOT BY FAR. IF MODEL CONSENSUS IS CORRECT WITH ANOTHER
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MON...LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE ARE AGAIN POINTED AT THE
FCST AREA FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WITH ML CAPES OF 2K TO 4K
J/KG AND PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS. RAISED
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MON AFTERNOON BUT MORE OF THIS MAY BE INTO
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE WAY THINGS HAVE BEEN GOING...ITS LIKELY
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR MON NIGHT.
USED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS TODAY THRU MON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
MODEL CONSENSUS TREND FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT IS STRONGER WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO COME OUT OF THE ROCKIES MON NIGHT AND
END UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY WED MORNING. HOWEVER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY ON THIS FEATURE NOT THAT GOOD. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PERIOD AVERAGE.
MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED/
WET STRETCH OF DAYS. THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLES THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE REGION AND
ONE OR MORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA INITIATED MON AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT. AFTER THIS ONE CLEARS THE AREA/
DIMINISHES TUE MORNING...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO QUICKLY RELOAD. WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD THE AREA...YET ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WITH THE THREAT OF MORE HEAVY RAINS LOOKS TO DEVELOP MOVE ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF IA/MN/WI. DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BY TUE/TUE
NIGHT SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE GREATEST HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WOULD BE. DUE TO THE CONVECTION UNKNOWNS...FOR NOW USED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF LOWS/HIGHS MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN
TRANSITION IN THE WED-SAT PERIOD. INCREASING SIGNAL FOR RIDGING TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN DECENT BETWEEN MODEL AND
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD
AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
WED-SAT TRENDING TO BE A DRIER/COOLER PERIOD AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO THE NORTHWEST. APPEARS TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING MAY BE THE LAST OF
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/HEAVY RAIN THREATS. FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY
WESTERLY/ZONAL WED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVING EAST
OF THE REGION. THIS CHANGE PUSHES THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OUT OF THE
AREA. SHRA/TSRA STILL POSSIBLE WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF
THE SFC LOW WED THEN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES WED NIGHT INTO
SAT. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA THESE WOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE /ESPECIALLY BY THU/...HAVE LESS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH AND BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SMALLER MODEL CONSENSUS
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE WED-SAT PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR THIS PERIOD
LOOK GOOD AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HAS SHOWN
NO MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH STORMS CONTINUING ALONG
AND NORTH OF IT. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR DOES SHOW A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY BACK IN THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA HAS A MORE
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE LOCAL ARX-LAPS HAS
LATCHED ONTO THESE DIFFERENT AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH THE 23.03Z
RUN TAKING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT WHILE TAKING THE NEXT ROUND PAST
THE AREA TO THE NORTH. THE 23.03Z HRRR SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS SO
PLAN TO CONTINUE THE TSRA THROUGH 08Z AT KRST AND 10Z AT KLSE.
AFTER THAT WILL JUST DROP BACK TO VCSH FOR A SHORT WHILE BEFORE
GOING TOTALLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY UNTIL IT
ENDS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 23.00Z NAM INDICATES THE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO
THE WEST. SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND HAVE PUT IN A VCTS TO SHOW THIS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
LATER FORECASTS WILL DETAIL THE TIMING BETTER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
WI. THIS BEING COVERED BY FLASH FLOOD AND AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS.
DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...SATURATED SOILS AND
THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN...LOCALLY 2
INCHES OR MORE IN REPEATING TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM MONDAY.
TRIBUTARY RIVERS LIKE THE KICAKPOO...BLACK...UPPER IOWA AND TURKEY
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE AND REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH RUNOFF PERCENTAGES WILL ONLY CREATE MORE
PROBLEMS WITH THESE LARGER RIVERS...ESPECIALLY AS THIS PERIOD OF
STORMY WEATHER AND THREAT OF MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES.
IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT TERM WATER CONCERNS...THERE IS A RIVER
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA...WINONA...AND LA CROSSE.
WATER FROM THE TRIBUTARY RIVERS...AND RIVERS NORTH OF THE FCST AREA
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MS RIVER...WITH THE MS RIVER
AT THESE LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND OR
AFTER THE 1ST OF JULY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
HYDROLOGY....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1238 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013
AT 3 PM...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR
AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN IOWA. AS THE TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES /LOWER 80S/ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...
EXPECT THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST IOWA TO GRADUALLY
UPSCALE AS IT MOVES INTO BETTER CAPES AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH
0-3 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS...THINKING THAT THE STORMS
BECOME MORE COLD POOL DOMINATED THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BOW ECHOS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN ADDITION...WITH 1000 TO 1200 J/KG DCAPES THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUDS
DEPTHS BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE VERY
EFFECTIVE RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER WITH THIS SAID...WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH
URBANIZED AREAS WHERE JUST AN INCH OF RAIN AN HOUR CAN RESULT IN
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
FOR OVERNIGHT...THE 23.12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THEY HAVE SHOWED THIS FOR THE
PAST 6 MODEL CYCLES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PUSH
NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES...AND THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS FALL INTO THE 3.5 TO 4 KM RANGE. THIS IS IDEA
THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN WANING OVERNIGHT IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSIVELY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH CLARK AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 23.07Z AND 23.09Z.
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS
BEEN POSITIONED TO OUR WEST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMB ABOVE 4 KM...AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST TRAINING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING. CERTAINTY ON THE SPEED AND LOCATION
OF THIS FRONT WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. IT MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME DRYING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED THIS...THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WHICH MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...SO JUST WENT WITH THE ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WOULD PLACE THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT CLEAR AS THERE WILL THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HAS SHOWN
NO MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH STORMS CONTINUING ALONG
AND NORTH OF IT. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR DOES SHOW A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY BACK IN THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA HAS A MORE
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE LOCAL ARXLAPS HAS
LATCHED ONTO THESE DIFFERENT AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH THE 23.03Z
RUN TAKING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT WHILE TAKING THE NEXT ROUND PAST
THE AREA TO THE NORTH. THE 23.03Z HRRR SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS SO
PLAN TO CONTINUE THE TSRA THROUGH 08Z AT KRST AND 10Z AT KLSE.
AFTER THAT WILL JUST DROP BACK TO VCSH FOR A SHORT WHILE BEFORE
GOING TOTALLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY UNTIL IT
ENDS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 23.00Z NAM INDICATES THE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO
THE WEST. SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND HAVE PUT IN A VCTS TO SHOW THIS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
LATER FORECASTS WILL DETAIL THE TIMING BETTER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013
HYDRO CONCERNS LINGER ACROSS TURKEY...UPPER IOWA...SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE KICKAPOO...BLACK...AND TURTLE CREEK. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL
STREAMS ACROSS ALLAMAKEE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...
AND CRAWFORD AND GRANT COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF MOST OF THESE BASINS. HOWEVER THERE IS
CONCERN ON SUNDAY THAT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT CLEAR.
IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT TERM WATER CONCERNS...THERE IS A RIVER
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA...WINONA...AND
LA CROSSE. THESE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE UNTIL
AFTER JULY 1ST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1053 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE REALLY BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN AS THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE CWA AND THE SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS. KEPT
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE SWITCHES WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE NAM SUGGESTS LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHEREAS THE
GFS IS DRIER IN THE LLVLS. WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE GRIDS
FOR NOW WITH THE HRRR ONLY SHOWING IFR CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD INTO LARAMIE COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013
THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE
EVENING. 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE RANGING FROM
50-100M^2/S^2 IN GOSHEN AND ALBANY COUNTIES. FURTHER EAST OF THIS
LCLS ARE A BIT LOWER WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 500M- 1000M.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MARGINAL
THIS EVENING...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE SOME BRIEF TOUCHDOWNS AS THE
LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. MEANWHILE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THIS EVENING AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO THIS EVENING. WE WILL
BE CLEARING THE TORNADO WATCH IN CONVERSE AND ALBANY COUNTIES
SHORTLY.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. IT MAY BE QUITE
COOL IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH 40S IN WYOMING AND 50S IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LEE SIDE TROF DOES TRY TO SET UP CAMP...BUT
NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONSISTENCY SAKE WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM DUE TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AND BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SLID EAST OF AREA TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING...GIVING WAY TO DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH POTENTIALLY PRODUCING TO MVFR CIGS FOR A
TIME AT KCYS...KCDR AND KAIA BETWEEN 08Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
-TSRA ARE EXPECTED FOR KCYS...KBFF AND KSNY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO
HAVE ADDED VCTS MENTION TO THOSE AIRFIELDS AFTER 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 417 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN STORE FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE LEE SIDE TROF
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY AND DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL FAVOR INCREASED FIRE RISK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...SLA
AVIATION...CH
FIRE WEATHER...REC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1027 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH RAIN TOTALS
GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO FAR WITH MOST LOCALES LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH EXCEPT 0.25-0.30 FOR THE SONOMA COAST. AS ONE CAN
FEEL THERE IS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING
AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH LAYERED CLOUD DECKS AND EVEN SOME DENSE FOG
SHOWING UP AROUND HALF MOON BAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST 24
HOURS THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO FOCUSED FORCING OR DYNAMICS TO
REALLY GENERATE ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP.
ALL OF OUR SHORT TERM MODELS...THE 00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE LATEST
IN HOUSE WRF AND NCEP RAP MODEL SHOW THE LAST GOOD CHANCE OF
GENERATING NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL ALONG THE NORTH
BAY AND IN PARTICULAR SONOMA COUNTY WILL SEE THE BEST SHOT OF
RAIN TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 0.50 TO 1 INCH. FROM AN IMPACT STANDPOINT
WE CAN EXPECT WET ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR THE GREATER
BAY AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTH BAY WITH THE 101 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
NORTHWARD MOST DIRECTLY IMPACTED. ANY RAIN SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT. OF COURSE ANY RAINFALL ON
JUNE 25TH IS RARE SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK SOME DAILY
RAINFALL RECORDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS FOR TUESDAY.
THE MOST CONSISTENT SITE FOR RECORDS SUCH AS THIS IS DOWNTOWN SF
AND THAT DAILY RECORD IS 0.15 BACK IN 2001.
IN GENERAL SHOWERS BECOME ISOLATED BY MIDDAY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
CHANCES WILL LINGER IN THE NORTH BAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
ABSENCE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE LOW CLOUD AND
FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. THERE IS NOTHING TO
WASH THE HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS STAYING IN
PLACE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THE LACK OF NW WINDS OVER THE OCEAN
WILL KEEP UPWELLING NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AND SST WILL HOVER IN THE
UPPER 50S AS WELL.
ANYWAY WEDS WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH DRY WEATHER BUT A
WARMING AIRMASS. THE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THINGS ALMOST
UNCOMFORTABLE FOR THOSE FOLKS NOT ACCUSTOMED TO THE HEAT. LUCKILY
BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REALLY STARTS TO BUILD IN WE SHOULD GET A
RETURN OF NW WIND FLOW. A DOMINANT WESTERN US RIDGE WILL BECOME
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WITH BIG TIME HEAT FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. THE
INLAND LOCATIONS WILL RAPIDLY WARM WHILE THE COAST WILL KEEP A
MARINE LAYER IN PLACE AT LEAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGE COULD BUILD TOWARDS CALIFORNIA AND
ESSENTIALLY PUSH THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WITH
HOT WEATHER PUSHING CLOSE TO THE BEACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS
HOT AND DRY HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY FOR MOST OF
THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT MONDAY...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL STABILITY TONIGHT FAVORS IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TREND TO IFR
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK UP A LITTLE BY MID-LATE TUESDAY
MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP LIFT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BACK TO
MVFR AFTER 18Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...EXPECT IFR TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
DRIZZLE. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR BY 17Z TUESDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH RAIN TOTALS
GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO FAR WITH MOST LOCALES LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH EXCEPT 0.25-0.30 FOR THE SONOMA COAST. AS ONE CAN
FEEL THERE IS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING
AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH LAYERED CLOUD DECKS AND EVEN SOME DENSE FOG
SHOWING UP AROUND HALF MOON BAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST 24
HOURS THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO FOCUSED FORCING OR DYNAMICS TO
REALLY GENERATE ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP.
ALL OF OUR SHORT TERM MODELS...THE 00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE LATEST
IN HOUSE WRF AND NCEP RAP MODEL SHOW THE LAST GOOD CHANCE OF
GENERATING NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL ALONG THE NORTH
BAY AND IN PARTICULAR SONOMA COUNTY WILL SEE THE BEST SHOT OF
RAIN TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 0.50 TO 1 INCH. FROM AN IMPACT STANDPOINT
WE CAN EXPECT WET ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR THE GREATER
BAY AREA AS WELL AS THE NORTH BAY WITH THE 101 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
NORTHWARD MOST DIRECTLY IMPACTED. ANY RAIN SOUTH OF THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT. OF COURSE ANY RAINFALL ON
JUNE 25TH IS RARE SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK SOME DAILY
RAINFALL RECORDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS FOR TUESDAY.
THE MOST CONSISTENT SITE FOR RECORDS SUCH AS THIS IS DOWNTOWN SF
AND THAT DAILY RECORD IS 0.15 BACK IN 2001.
IN GENERAL SHOWERS BECOME ISOLATED BY MIDDAY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
CHANCES WILL LINGER IN THE NORTH BAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
ABSENCE OF COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE LOW CLOUD AND
FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. THERE IS NOTHING TO
WASH THE HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS STAYING IN
PLACE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THE LACK OF NW WINDS OVER THE OCEAN
WILL KEEP UPWELLING NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AND SST WILL HOVER IN THE
UPPER 50S AS WELL.
ANYWAY WEDS WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH DRY WEATHER BUT A
WARMING AIRMASS. THE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THINGS ALMOST
UNCOMFORTABLE FOR THOSE FOLKS NOT ACCUSTOMED TO THE HEAT. LUCKILY
BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REALLY STARTS TO BUILD IN WE SHOULD GET A
RETURN OF NW WIND FLOW. A DOMINANT WESTERN US RIDGE WILL BECOME
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WITH BIG TIME HEAT FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US. THE
INLAND LOCATIONS WILL RAPIDLY WARM WHILE THE COAST WILL KEEP A
MARINE LAYER IN PLACE AT LEAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGE COULD BUILD TOWARDS CALIFORNIA AND
ESSENTIALLY PUSH THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WITH
HOT WEATHER PUSHING CLOSE TO THE BEACHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS
HOT AND DRY HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY FOR MOST OF
THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:20 PM PDT MONDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS AROUND
THE ENTIRE AREA PER WEATHER OBS...SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR AND THE RATE AT WHICH IT DEVELOPS. THE JET STREAM IS BEGINNING
TO DEPART AND LIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA HOWEVER A LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND PROVIDES THE LIFT NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH ARRIVES JUST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO FORECAST STEADILY INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SUGGESTING GREATER AIRMASS STABILITY THAN LAST
NIGHT WHICH SUGGESTS GREATER IFR POTENTIAL.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS HAVE SLIPPED A BIT LOWER IN THE LAST HOUR PER
METAR OBS...BUT THERE REMAINS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR/VFR WILL
HOLD FOR THE EVENING. ONSET OF NIGHT HOURS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS...LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS...LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND STEADILY INCREASING AIRMASS
STABILITY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR IFR POTENTIAL
LATE AT NIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. STEADILY LOWERING CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
06Z WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1107 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013/
HAVE MADE SEVERAL TWEAKS TO GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY TO
UPDATE TRENDS IN POPS. REDUCED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND TRENDED THEM DOWN SOUTH AS WELL...WITH AN OVERALL REDUCTION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TRENDING BACK UP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO WEATHER GRID WORDING. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...CENTRAL AL AND SOUTHEAST MS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WESTERN GA. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS THE ACTIVITY
FROM THE WEST CONGEALING WITH THE SE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FOR OVERNIGHT...WV LOOP SHOWS A GOOD PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SE IN THE FLOW ACROSS W KY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO
DEVELOP SCT ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT OVERNIGHT...SCT SHRA/TSRA SEEM VERY
REASONABLE.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE
OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS REMAIN THE SAME ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...BUT WILL CREEP UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION...BL WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT (AOB
15K)...SO MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW OR NEARLY STATIONARY.
EVEN THOUGH THE ATMOS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AT THE
SURFACE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR REMAIN VERY WEAK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH DAY 7. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SURFACE RIDGE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE SOUTHEAST BY WEEKS
END. THEY ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN US AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HAVE
COOLED EXTENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. STILL LOOKING
FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND...AND EXPECT THIS UPWARD TREND IN THE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE COMING DAYS. ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT MORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
PRECIP ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH DROP IN POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
AS A RESULT.
31/01
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 20Z. HIGHEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AHN/MCN/CSG.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST. CURRENT ALL CIGS VFR
BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAD
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. SOME VSBYS COULD DROP TO IFR BUT MOST SHOULD
STAY MVFR.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-LOW ON CIGS THIS MORNING.
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION TODAY...MEDIUM ON IMPACTS TO ATL.
HIGH ON ALL REMAINING ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 87 69 90 / 30 50 30 30
ATLANTA 70 86 71 88 / 30 50 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 64 81 64 86 / 40 50 20 40
CARTERSVILLE 69 88 69 89 / 20 50 20 30
COLUMBUS 71 91 72 92 / 50 40 30 30
GAINESVILLE 68 85 70 87 / 20 50 30 30
MACON 71 89 71 90 / 60 50 30 30
ROME 68 89 69 91 / 20 40 10 30
PEACHTREE CITY 69 87 69 88 / 30 50 30 30
VIDALIA 72 88 73 92 / 50 50 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
243 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
DAY1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWS THE SLIGHT RISK FROM ABOUT I-72
NORTHWARD TODAY. LATEST IN THE SERIES OF NOCTURNAL MCS SYSTEMS WAS
TRACKING ALONG THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER AT 2 AM. WHILE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TRACK OF THIS WELL TO OUR
NORTH...RADAR MOSAICS STARTING TO SHOW THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE AIR TO THE SOUTH
WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE LATER TODAY WITH CAPES OF OVER 3000
J/KG. ANOTHER MCS PROGGED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS...WITH THIS MCS SLIDING ACROSS
THE NORTH HALF OF ILLINOIS LATER TODAY. HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE
FOCUSED MORE ON THE I-80 CORRIDOR. STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL AGAIN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF AROUND 1.8 INCHES.
SPC PROBABILITY GRAPHICS FOR THE DAY2 OUTLOOK SHOW A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT OVER ALL OF OUR AREA BUT FOCUS ON LOCATIONS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-57 WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE CROSSING THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS
WILL BE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF IT...WITH CAPES OF AROUND
4500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AROUND 1.8 INCHES POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN...BUT HOPEFULLY THE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AS COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN A REAL
STRUGGLE WITH ALL OF THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. HAVE SCALED BACK
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES...GOING CLOSER TO A MET/MAV BLEND. IF THE
CONVECTION TODAY IS MORE ISOLATED...THEN THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS
SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
INITIAL COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A TEASE...WITH
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. A STEADY
PUSH OF COOLER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD IN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW OVERSPREADS THE GREAT LAKES...AND STARTS A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT OVER THE MIDWEST
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE LATTER MODEL
A BIT MORE PERSISTENT AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT
ABNORMALLY OUT OF LINE FOR THE END OF JUNE.
BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND THE
DEEP TROUGH OVERHEAD...AM RELUCTANT TO COMPLETELY REMOVE RAIN
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THEY WOULD BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
TEMPO IN FOR TSRA BETWEEN 09 AND 14Z AS THE NAM IS SIGNALING A
SOUTHERLY PUSH TO THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SE WI. WITH HRRR
AND RUC BOTH DRY AND THE MODEL PERFORMANCE ABYSMAL WITH THE MCS
TRAIN OF LATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT TREND/PERSISTENCE
BASED. THE LATEST 4KM WRF KEEP CONVECTION AWAY UNTIL MIDDAY.
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTH ARE DRIVING
THE NEXT 6 HRS. VCTS FROM MID MORNING ON THROUGH THE FORECAST AS
THE ENTIRE 24 HRS HINGES ON MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND
REMNANT MCVS. AHEAD OF STORMS...VFR CONTINUES...AS WELL AS RAPID
CLEARING BEHIND THEM. TOMORROW EXPECTED TO BE BUSY AGAIN WITH
THUNDER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH TIMING INDIVIDUAL
CELLS/TERMINALS IS VERY PROBLEMATIC.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1210 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 855 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
ANOTHER MCS EXITING THE CWA THIS EVENING...LEAVING A COOLER AND
MORE HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER IN ITS WAKE. WILL BE ADJUSTING THE
HOURLY TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE AREA WILL
BE SEEING THEIR LOWS NOW...IN THE REMAINING COLD AIR FROM CONVECTION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPS FROM THE SOUTH TO COUNTER
ANY ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET. WILL WATCH
CLOSELY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...BUT SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY IF IT
DEVELOPS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE NORTH IN
HRRR AND THE RUC...BUT WITH SO MANY BOUNDARIES OUT THERE FROM
DYING CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
TEMPO IN FOR TSRA BETWEEN 09 AND 14Z AS THE NAM IS SIGNALING A
SOUTHERLY PUSH TO THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SE WI. WITH HRRR
AND RUC BOTH DRY AND THE MODEL PERFORMANCE ABYSMAL WITH THE MCS
TRAIN OF LATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT TREND/PERSISTENCE
BASED. THE LATEST 4KM WRF KEEP CONVECTION AWAY UNTIL MIDDAY.
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTH ARE DRIVING
THE NEXT 6 HRS. VCTS FROM MID MORNING ON THROUGH THE FORECAST AS
THE ENTIRE 24 HRS HINGES ON MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND
REMNANT MCVS. AHEAD OF STORMS...VFR CONTINUES...AS WELL AS RAPID
CLEARING BEHIND THEM. TOMORROW EXPECTED TO BE BUSY AGAIN WITH
THUNDER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH TIMING INDIVIDUAL
CELLS/TERMINALS IS VERY PROBLEMATIC.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
THE SHORT TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY PERIODIC
BOUTS OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING...ALONG WITH HIGH HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS LATE IN
THE WEEK PROVIDING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND.
BASED ON THE 3-5" OF RAIN FROM PEORIA AND NORTH...WE DECIDED TO
INCLUDE OUR NORTHERN 5 COUNTIES IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
INITIAL SEVERE STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BUT ANOTHER WATCH FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF THAT WATCH MAY
BE COMING SOON. BASED ON RADAR ANALYSIS...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LINE OF STORMS IN N MO AND E IOWA APPEARS TO BE ERODING EARLY ON.
WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK AIDED BY
INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. IF NOT...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE WATCH WILL NOT BE AFFECTED AS MUCH WITH
THIS ROUND OF STORMS. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE SHOWING THE LINE SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IL...WHICH WILL MAKE IT MU-CAPE VALUES ARE CLIMBING TO NEAR 3000
J/KG AS SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE LINE HAS HELPED BOOST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL AID IN DOWNBURST WINDS
BEING ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS DOWNBURST
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1100 J/KG...WHICH ALSO POINTS TOWARD EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH VGP
ABOVE 0.2 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WE COULD SEE SOME
ROTATING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO POSSIBLE.
THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 4
PM...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR BMI BY 6 PM AND INTO INDIANA BY
8-9 PM.
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE LINE MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
COMPLEX...SO A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OUR NW
COUNTIES THROUGH MORNING. THEREFORE WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-72/74-DANVILLE. WE ORIGINALLY HAD
EXPECTED SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE
STORMS...AND WE STILL MAY SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...SPC HAS EXPANDED THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FARTHER SOUTH TO
INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SO WE DECIDED TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. WE
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING CAPPED TUES AS THE MID LEVELS
WARM. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AREAS THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF ML-CAPE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. WE STILL MAINLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR NORTH OF I-74 WHERE WE WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE INCREASING BETTER DESTABILIZATION OF THE
LOWER TROP AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO
A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH FROM CANADA. SURFACE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN HIGH...BUT SUNSHINE MAY BE A BIT MORE LIMITED IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUES AND WED WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND
100 IN MANY AREAS BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND WHERE THE
CIRRUS SHIELD DEVELOPS AHEAD OF CONVECTION. STILL...VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT BEGINNING
LATE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR DELAYED
UNTIL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR
OCCURS. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS...WITH A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER THURS AND
THURS NIGHT. AS A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE IN THE 500 MB TROUGH ROUNDS
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME CUT OFF
AND LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THAT WOULD LIKELY KEEP RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MUCH OF THAT TIME...AS THE COLD POOL PROVIDES FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES FOR UPDRAFTS. SO A CHANGE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CLOUDY
AND COOLER APPEARS IN THE OFFING.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1137 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE JUNE STANDARDS WAS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, STRONG SURFACE TROUGH HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS, WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
ELEVATED CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
EAST OF DODGE CITY AND THEN MOVED EAST AND WEAKENED. ANOTHER BATCH
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED WEST OF A SURFACE DRYLINE IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF 3
PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
THE SHORT RANGE HRRR DOES INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AIDS IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. GIVEN THE FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WAS APPROACHING 40 KTS IN THIS SAME AREA, BUT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WAS VERY WEAK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND RESULTANT HIGH CLOUD BASES, THE STORMS MAY DEVELOP
QUITE A BIT OF OUTFLOW, AND THIS MAY LIMIT THE SEVERITY AS FAR AS
HAIL SIZE IS CONCERNED (SINCE THE STORMS MAY NOT REMAIN AS
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS LONG). BUT HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW ORGANIZED
THE STORMS WILL BE AND HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE RESULTANT
RAINFALL WOULD BE. BUT STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED TO 30-40% FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INCLUDING DODGE CITY, JETMORE AND LARNED
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND SURFACE BASED CAPE.
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY
LATE EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AS WELL AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING EASTWARD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 KTS EVEN LATE TONIGHT WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE LOWER 70S AT DODGE CITY, HAYS AND PRATT,
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE EAST OF
DODGE CITY AND INTO THE PANHANDLES. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 103
TO 106F ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE DRYLINE WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL AIR HAS MOVED DOWNSLOPE AND WARMED ADIABATICALLY. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM WAKEENEY TO
DIGHTON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE LACK OF FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SINCE
THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST BY THE
TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS NOW
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE EXITING
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN ITS
WAKE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
FAIRLY SMALL GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. WITH
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES OVER WESTERN KANSAS WE SHOULD SEE
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO AROUND OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
SETTING UP INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE FRONT RANGE. GIVEN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW, SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BECOMES
EVEN MORE MERIDIONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE ALL BEEN TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION
THROUGH THE PAST FEW RUNS. THINK THAT THE CURRENT WEEK TWO OUTLOOK
SHOULD BE TRENDED BACK TO AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NOW
BUT BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES, WE COULD BE EVEN COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRYLINE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z WITH SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
BUT DECREASING IN THE TROUGH AXIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 73 105 69 101 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 72 104 65 101 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 70 103 66 101 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 74 105 68 104 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 74 104 70 101 / 20 0 0 0
P28 74 100 74 101 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FINCH
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
524 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A BROAD AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EASTWARD.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0520L: FEW INITIAL SHOWERS/TSTM INTO XTRM NRN AND WRN MAINE
ATTM... ADJUSTED POPS/HRLY TEMPS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED
TRENDS NXT FEW HRS...
QUIET ACROSS THE FA FOR NOW AS WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS HAS
EXITED OUR SERN AREAS WHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IS NOTED NW-N OF THE FA ALONG AND JUST W OF THE ST LAWRENCE... NR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY N OF THE REGION XTNDG WNW-ESE FROM JAMES
BAY ACROSS THE GASPE AND INTO THE GULF OF THE ST LAWRENCE. SEVERAL
WEAK LOWS CONT TO SLIDE ESEWRD ALONG THIS BNDRY W/ THE STRONGEST OF
THESE NR THE SERN TIP OF JAMES BAY ATTM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND ALLOW THIS SFC LOW NR JAMES BAY TO DROP SEWRD ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY W/ THE FRONTAL BNDRY SAGGING SWRD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATE TDY THRU TNGT. VRY WARM/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA S OF THIS BNDRY W/ SBCAPES FCST FROM
1000-2500 J/KG AND THIS WILL COMBINE W/ STRONG SFC AND UPPER
DYNAMICS AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY AND LOW PRES SAG SEWRD TOWARDS THE
AREA LATER TDY TO PRODUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO PSBLY SEVERE
TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY THE SPC HAS ALL BUT OUR DOWNEAST
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR W/ DAMAGING WNDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
INITIAL ACTIVITY NW-N OF THE AREA IS FCST BY THE SHORTER TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND RUC TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT
REACHES OUR FAR NRN AREAS ERLY THIS AM BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THIS...
IN ANY CASE...APPEARS STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL DVLP LATER THIS AM
THRU THE AFTN HRS W/ HGHST POPS ACROSS THE N AND E CENTRAL AREAS
IN TO THE EVE HRS W/ LOWEST POPS FAR SW. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SVR
ALONG W/ ENHANCED WORDING FOR HVY RAIN/DAMAGING WNDS AND SMALL HAIL...
FOR TNGT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY WILL BE JUST S AND W OF
THE FA BY ERLY WED W/ WEAK LOW PRES CNTRS OVR ERN NS...SRN MAINE
AND SWRN QUEBEC. HIGH PRES W/ SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO NUDE INTO
FAR NERN AREAS BY LATE TNGT/ERLY WED...
EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY TDY W/ HIGH TEMPS LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON CLD CVR. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME SUN N AND NE W/
MORE PREVALENT SUNSHINE S AND W. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 80S N W/ NR 90 PSBL SRN AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANOTHER
WARM AND MUGGY NGT TNGT ACROSS RN AND WRN AREAS W/ SOME COOLER AND
DRIER AIR LIKELY WORKING INTO NERN AREAS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RATHER LGT WNDS SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF FOG TNGT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN H5 UPPER LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL ALLOW AMPLE MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN H5 UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE THIS
WEEK AND THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS THE DAMP
WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE PARTICULARLY WET WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG ERLY THIS AM MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR TO IFR
CONDS UP UNTIL OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS W/ MVFR/IFR DURING THIS
ACTIVITY. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TNGT ALONG W/ A
THREAT OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.
SHORT TERM: MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES WITH SHOWERS...RAIN AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THRU TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY
FOG TODAY...THEN IN AREAS OF FOG AND ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW/OKULSKI
MARINE...KHW/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
329 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALSO SHIFT THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY`S WILL NOT
DROP OFF THAT MUCH. WE WILL SWITCH BACK TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER AND CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
..."SUPERMOON" TIDES REACHED 12 FEET IN PORTLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING...
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z OVER FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE RACING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. WIND FIELDS WILL BE INCREASING (AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL) WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN PLACE...CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY AS THE WIND MAX APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS AS
CAPE VALUES RAPIDLY CLIMB WITH GOOD SOLAR HEATING TODAY. HAVE
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY DROP VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING...BUT TRAINING OF SHOWERS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...UNTIL 11 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AFTER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RAINS...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AS WELL.
READINGS OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SHOOT UP QUICKLY AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...SO A HEAT WAVE (3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES) IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK ON EVOLVING LONGWAVE
PATTERN. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE WARM...HUMID...AND WET
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN THE DAILIES...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY THEN SLOW DOWN AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING WARM, HUMID, AND WET WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
MORNING FOG IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...
THU - SAT...AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM...
FRI - SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
323 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A BROAD AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EASTWARD.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET ACROSS THE FA FOR NOW AS WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS HAS
EXITED OUR SERN AREAS WHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IS NOTED NW-N OF THE FA ALONG AND JUST W OF THE ST LAWRENCE... NR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY N OF THE REGION XTNDG WNW-ESE FROM JAMES
BAY ACROSS THE GASPE AND INTO THE GULF OF THE ST LAWRENCE. SEVERAL
WEAK LOWS CONT TO SLIDE ESEWRD ALONG THIS BNDRY W/ THE STRONGEST OF
THESE NR THE SERN TIP OF JAMES BAY ATTM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND ALLOW THIS SFC LOW NR JAMES BAY TO DROP SEWRD ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY W/ THE FRONTAL BNDRY SAGGING SWRD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATE TDY THRU TNGT. VRY WARM/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA S OF THIS BNDRY W/ SBCAPES FCST FROM
1000-2500 J/KG AND THIS WILL COMBINE W/ STRONG SFC AND UPPER
DYNAMICS AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY AND LOW PRES SAG SEWRD TOWARDS THE
AREA LATER TDY TO PRODUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO PSBLY SEVERE
TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY THE SPC HAS ALL BUT OUR DOWNEAST
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR W/ DAMAGING WNDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
INITIAL ACTIVITY NW-N OF THE AREA IS FCST BY THE SHORTER TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND RUC TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT
REACHES OUR FAR NRN AREAS ERLY THIS AM BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THIS...
IN ANY CASE...APPEARS STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL DVLP LATER THIS AM
THRU THE AFTN HRS W/ HGHST POPS ACROSS THE N AND E CENTRAL AREAS
IN TO THE EVE HRS W/ LOWEST POPS FAR SW. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SVR
ALONG W/ ENHANCED WORDING FOR HVY RAIN/DAMAGING WNDS AND SMALL HAIL...
FOR TNGT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY WILL BE JUST S AND W OF
THE FA BY ERLY WED W/ WEAK LOW PRES CNTRS OVR ERN NS...SRN MAINE
AND SWRN QUEBEC. HIGH PRES W/ SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO NUDE INTO
FAR NERN AREAS BY LATE TNGT/ERLY WED...
EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY TDY W/ HIGH TEMPS LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON CLD CVR. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME SUN N AND NE W/
MORE PREVALENT SUNSHINE S AND W. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 80S N W/ NR 90 PSBL SRN AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANOTHER
WARM AND MUGGY NGT TNGT ACROSS RN AND WRN AREAS W/ SOME COOLER AND
DRIER AIR LIKELY WORKING INTO NERN AREAS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RATHER LGT WNDS SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF FOG TNGT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN H5 UPPER LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL ALLOW AMPLE MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN H5 UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE THIS
WEEK AND THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS THE DAMP
WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE PARTICULARLY WET WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG ERLY THIS AM MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR TO IFR
CONDS UP UNTIL OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS W/ MVFR/IFR DURING THIS
ACTIVITY. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TNGT ALONG W/ A
THREAT OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.
SHORT TERM: MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES WITH SHOWERS...RAIN AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THRU TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY
FOG TODAY...THEN IN AREAS OF FOG AND ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW/OKULSKI
MARINE...KHW/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
302 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALSO SHIFT THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY`S WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT MUCH. WE WILL SWITCH BACK TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER AND CONTINUED HUMID
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
..."SUPERMOON" TIDES REACHED 12 FEET IN PORTLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING...
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z OVER FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE RACING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. WIND FIELDS WILL BE INCREASING (AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL) WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN PLACE...CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY AS THE WIND MAX APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS AS
CAPE VALUES RAPIDLY CLIMB WITH GOOD SOLAR HEATING TODAY. HAVE
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY DROP VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING...BUT TRAINING OF SHOWERS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...UNTIL 11 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AFTER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RAINS...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AS WELL.
READINGS OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SHOOT UP QUICKLY AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...SO A HEAT WAVE (3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES) IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK ON EVOLVING LONGWAVE
PATTERN. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE WARM...HUMID...AND WET
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN THE DAILIES...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY THEN SLOW DOWN AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING WARM, HUMID, AND WET WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
MORNING FOG IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...
THU - SAT...AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM...
FRI - SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
142 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL DOWN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
CLOUDS ARE SET TO ROLL IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ROLL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET ROUNDING SHORTWAVE IN ONTARIO.
THESE WILL CROSS CHIP/MACK COUNTIES THROUGH 0730Z.
MEANWHILE...BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN...THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO
SEPARATE SHORTWAVES BASED ON RUC ANALYSIS AND VWP`S. ONE RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY BACKING H8 WINDS BETWEEN LACROSSE AND MILWAUKEE. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND GRB...WHICH
WAS SLOWLY WORKING TOWARD THE GTV BAY REGION. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF
THAT CAN HOLD TOGETHER WITH GROWING MCS ACROSS SW WISCONSIN WHICH
MAY DISRUPT IT`S INFLOW. LATEST HI RES HRRR...DOING A DECENT JOB
AND WILL TWEAK POP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ROLLING INTO THE GTV BAY REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
MCS CONTINUES SLIDING EAST THRU THE NRN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...
WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER
MICHIGAN. MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT REMAINS POPS. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING/FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE
AREA. AND STILL BELIEVE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...LINING UP IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO 850MB DWPT
AXIS LAYING W-E ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MICHIGAN AND WITHIN
CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER 850MB FLOW. CURRENT CONVECTION OVER
UPPER MICHIGAN /LIKELY TIED TO 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NOSING INTO
THAT AREA/ SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BUT GIVEN THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DESPITE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FORCING...SIMPLY CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST LOW POPS
OVER MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS
/30-40%/ SOUTH OF M-72...WITH LOWER CHANCES NORTH. STILL HAVE
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...AS
AIRMASS REMAINS JUICY WITH SEVERAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE/VORT
CENTERS.
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS UP A FEW DEG MOST LOCALES GIVEN CURRENT DWPTS
AND PLENTY OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
DIURNAL ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS DISSIPATING WITH LOWER SUN ANGLE...AND
WILL REMOVE FROM FORECAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND WILL BASE MUCH OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT ON OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MCS WORKING THRU SRN WISCONSIN/NRN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
EVENING WITHIN AXIS OF BEST LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR/MUCAPE...MOVING
MAINLY EAST WITH MEAN FLOW. MAIN QUESTION FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN
WILL BE IF ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH
SYNOPTIC VORTICITY CENTER OVER SRN MINNESOTA. CAN STILL ENVISION
SOME POSSIBILITY OF THIS HAPPENING...ALTHOUGH FEEL CURRENT POPS
ARE LIKELY TOO FAR NORTH GIVEN CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF FEATURE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL TRIM POPS OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...KEEPING SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM MENTION SOUTH OF M-32.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND A
BERMUDA HIGH ENCOMPASSING THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...
PUMPING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY INTO MICHIGAN. REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED BOUNDARIES IN
ITS VICINITY...AS A SLOW MOVING MCS AHEAD OF IT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...BROKEN AREA OF
AGITATED CU/TCU ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER...AND LYING ALONG LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY. SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS
HAVE POPPED EAST OF I-75 IN NORTHEAST LOWER...AND ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR BREEZE ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY JUST SOUTH OF THE SOO WITHIN
AN AREA OF 1000-1500J/KG MLCAPE.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THIS
SCENARIO AS VARIOUS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULT RESOLVING REALITY.
MCS ACROSS IOWA IS AN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT...CLEARLY GETTING PUSHED
ALONG BOTH BY A SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVE AND AN EMBEDDED MCV.
SYNOPTIC VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SPINNING INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS/SPOTTY
THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN MCS. THIS
FEATURE TIMES INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT...SO BEYOND ANY
ACTIVITY THAT POPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...MCS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE MOSTLY TO THE EAST BUT ASSOCIATED MCV APPEARS
TO BE TRACKING A LITTLE NORTH OF EAST. THUS CAN ENVISION "COMMA
HEAD" SHOWERS SLIPPING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT
PROVIDED THIS SYSTEM HOLDS TOGETHER.
VORTICITY CENTER WILL LIKELY STILL BE CROSSING NORTHERN LOWER
TUESDAY MORNING...SO CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS PROBABLY STILL AROUND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE TO START THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS WAVE TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK WITH A BIT
OF A COOL DOWN THEN EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD MAKE EVERYONE HAPPY...SOME BEACH WEATHER TO START FOLLOWED BY
BETTER SLEEPING CONDITIONS FOR NON-AIR CONDITIONING OWNING PEOPLE
(LIKE ME). ANYWAYS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS GETS SLOWLY BEATEN DOWN THROUGH
MIDWEEK BY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAVE BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD HOLD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...JUST A CHANCE
FOR A COUPLE OF AIRMASS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. REMAINING ON THE
WARM AND HUMID SIDE WITH LOWS ONLY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO
AROUND 70.
WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH THETA-E RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...AS WELL AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY
WELL BE THE TRIGGER THAT HAS BEEN LACKING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS TO
BRING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (ESPECIALLY TO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA). THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) HAS NIXED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE ADVERTISED LIGHT WIND FIELDS ALOFT...THOUGH
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM PROBABLY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS
EARLY JUNCTURE. CONTINUED VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TOT HE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH. LOWS AT NIGHT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN COMBINATION
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZES WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. ADDED THUNDER CHANCES BACK INTO THE
MIX FOR THURSDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION. NOT AS WARM BUT STILL MUGGY WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND FRIDAY
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE SATURDAY WITH
LINGERING TROUGHING LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY (THOUGH LATEST ECMWF
HOLDS ONTO THE TROUGH LONGER) WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. FORECAST HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
LOWS IN THE MORE COMFORTABLE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT ALL TERMINALS. THE CHANCE OF PCPN IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF. MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR PCPN. DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING
TUESDAY AFTN...WITH BASES FROM 4-6K. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10KTS...WITH LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE ON LAKE HURON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...AND WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED AT TIMES DUE TO FOG AND HAZE GIVEN
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...NS
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...JB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
409 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
Challenge for today continues to be chances of precipitation through
this afternoon as a nocturnal MCS propagates across central Kansas
this morning. The 00Z sounding from KTOP showed ample dry layer such
that severe winds were reported with very little convection or rain
associated. Upstream of that a short wave trough and low level
jet...along with around 8 deg K/KM mid level lapse rates supported
upscale growth of an MCS that is producing severe winds as well. This
will be the area to monitor as it moves eastward towards the CWA. At
this time the storm appears to be splitting with a southern area
taking on a more discrete...almost supercellular mode. Given the
0-6km shear in EAX CWA of around 40kts...will have to monitor this
activity closely for potential severe threat. The HRRR favors
maintaining the area although weakening somewhat after sunrise. The
surface winds ahead of this area are decent enough to believe that
the boundary layer is well mixed even if the convection itself is
elevated. The 500 mb flow will still be at least slightly cyclonic
and with the low level moisture and associated CAPE values around
2000 J/KG along with weak short wave ripples in the flow...therefore
a chance of convection will last through the day today. As the
thermal ridge builds into the area though...the chances for
precipitation will decrease with the increased heating of the column
late this evening through the remainder of the short term. All models
show the upper ridge significantly amplifying over the western half
of the US by tomorrow afternoon...so as the nose of the thermal ridge
edges into the area...we will have heat indices in the 103F to 106F
range on Wednesday. Will not issue a headline at this time because if there is
another MCS overnight...some debris cloudiness could limit the
temperatures/heat indices.
As the ridge amplifies to the west the flow will eventually turn more
northwesterly so we will begin to see slight relief by Thursday.
Given this flow and cap in place...precipitation chances decrease as
well during Thursday. The exception is a possible MCS that may from
over eastern Iowa and clip the northeast corner.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
Northwest flow will prevail through this period as a the
ridge/trough pattern amplifies across the CONUS. A weak front should
have moved through the area by Friday morning with scattered
convection lingering into the day. But the bigger effect of the
front will be to cool dewpoints down into the lower 60s or even the
50s. As we see a great influence from the eastern trough,
temperatures aloft cool down and thickness values decrease
substantially. So will also see a nice cool down in the surface
temperatures by Saturday into the first half of next week,
temperatures look to very close to normal, with highs in the lower
to middle 80s. And when combined with the much more comfortable
dewpoints, it looks like we`ll see couple days of pleasant summer
weather.
With regards to precipitation chances, northwest flow is notoriously
tricky for timing and placing precipitation chances. At this time,
there isn`t a great signal to say that any certain period of time
has a greater chance of precipitation than any other period of time.
So instead of carrying some mention of precipitation through the
bulk of the extended range, have trimmed POPs out until there is a
better signal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
Convection over KS continues to sputter/fizzle as it moves east
across the MO/KS state line. While short range models have not
captured the rain area very well they have been spot on with respect
to a lack of how much reaches the ground on the MO side. Cloud bases
are quite high and this brings up the potential for gusty winds to
40kts should any convective cell dissipate as it passes near a
terminal. Current indications are KSTJ has best chance of hearing
thunder vs the two KC terminals and TAFs have been adjusted
accordingly. Will amend forecasts should the KS convection cycle up
but expect best rain chances overnight will be over northwest MO from
KSTJ northward.
Low confidence on convection on Tuesday due to a lack of a
discernible boundary and forcing mechanism. Rain chances will be left
to mesoscale processes/systems which are best left to later
forecasts.
Main theme will be the strong and gusty southerly winds. May see an
occasional gust overnight but winds will become strongest by mid
Tuesday morning and remain that way into the evening due to a strong
pressure gradient and efficient momentum transfer of a stout low
level jet.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adolphson
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2013
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
Neither the short range convection allowing models nor 00z NAM have
much of a clue to the ongoing convection from southwest KS through
west central MO. Activity appears to be aligning itself wsw-ene along
a weak area of frontogenesis within the h8-h7 layer best depicted by
the 02z RAP. The southerly h8 winds of 40-45kts is advecting ample
moisture/instability across this boundary and with CIN values
increasing since sunset this now supports elevated vs surface based
convection. While the initial activity into our western counties tends
to weaken/dissipate believe convection further upstream over KS will
stand a better chance of surviving as it spreads eastward overnight
and thus chance PoPs are warranted for the far west central and
northwest portions of the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
Main concern will be with potential for convection again tonight and
then increasing heat conditions Tuesday. Latest HRRR model shows shortwave
trough in synoptic flow to hold together as it moves into eastern
Kansas. Dynamics are fairly weak as this is just a ripple in the
nearly zonal flow over the region. However...there is some modest
instability and potential for a decent LLJ late tonight....so another
nocturnal MCS could move through...especially in northern zones where
mid level lapse rates favor better instability.
On Tuesday...there still is a chance in the afternoon in the northern
zones for some convection to fire as yet another very weak short wave
trough moves through. Also of concern is what might be left over in
terms of outflow boundaries from any activity tonight.
Therefore...will keep a chance in the northern zones for tomorrow.
Meanwhile the thermal ridge begins to build to the west with 850mb
temperatures into the middle and upper 20s deg C in western and
central Kansas. As this thermal ridge moves towards the area...we
will see heat indices begin to edge up to low 100s. Will not issue
advisory for Tuesday but have mentioned it in the hazardous weather
outlook.
Tuesday night...yet another chance for some nocturnal MCS activity
mainly in the northeastern zones as the thermal ridge axis moves over
the western areas and should limit convection there.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
Beginning in the middle of the work week, the flattened zonal flow
across the nation will begin to amplify as the prevailing westerlies
begin to buckle across the U.S.A./Canadian border. The buckling in
the flow will be lead by a weak shortwave Wednesday, with our region
quickly finding itself in the the northwest flow as the ridge axis
of the amplifying ridge pops up to to our west. However, as the
weekend arrives the trough across the Great Lakes will gather some
energy, expanding enough to possibly but much of our forecast area
on the cool side of the still prevailing northwest flow.
The pattern for the week will dictate hot and humid conditions
through the middle of the work week, with Wednesday and Thursday
being particularly muggy and troublesome. Dew points will be
critical mid-week on determining the need for a heat advisory as
heat indices will be ranging in the low 100s. Currently, forecast
numbers are coming up just shy of criteria, though this currently
looks due to the fact that afternoon dew points will likely mix out
a little as the hot air advecting in aloft from the southwest will
also be a bit dry.
By Friday...temperatures are expected to back off a little from the
hot and humid readings of the previous few days as the trough over
the Great Lakes begins to dominate the eastern CONUS. Readings for
Friday will still reach in the 90s, but the humidity wont be as bad;
and for the weekend temperatures should range through the 80s.
As for precipitation, only true potential for more than isolated
storms looks to be focused on Thursday night into Friday morning as
the edge of the Great Lakes trough begins pushing back to the
southwest. Have kept PoPs in the chance category owing to the
vagaries of forecast timing in a northwest flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
Convection over KS continues to sputter/fizzle as it moves east
across the MO/KS state line. While short range models have not
captured the rain area very well they have been spot on with respect
to a lack of how much reaches the ground on the MO side. Cloud bases
are quite high and this brings up the potential for gusty winds to
40kts should any convective cell dissipate as it passes near a
terminal. Current indications are KSTJ has best chance of hearing
thunder vs the two KC terminals and TAFs have been adjusted
accordingly. Will amend forecasts should the KS convection cycle up
but expect best rain chances overnight will be over northwest MO from
KSTJ northward.
Low confidence on convection on Tuesday due to a lack of a
discernible boundary and forcing mechanism. Rain chances will be left
to mesoscale processes/systems which are best left to later
forecasts.
Main theme will be the strong and gusty southerly winds. May see an
occasional gust overnight but winds will become strongest by mid
Tuesday morning and remain that way into the evening due to a strong
pressure gradient and efficient momentum transfer of a stout low
level jet.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Adolphson/73
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
342 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK UPPER IMPULSES TRACK JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT POP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ONSHORE MOVEMENT
OF ATLANTIC SHRA/TSRA.
MODELS INDICATE RATHER FLAT UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. MODELS INDICATE
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROFFINESS ACROSS THE SE STATES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO AID IN FIRING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE SEA BREEZE
AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE THE OTHER AIDS TO KEEP CONVECTION FIRING
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR DOES INDICATE
CONVECTION TO FIRE AROUND SUNRISE BUT NOT BOUGHT ON ITS WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE THAT EARLY. THINKING IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY
CONCERNING POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE BY MID MORNING AND
LASTING THROUGH MID-EVENING. NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ACROSS THE FA ONCE AGAIN. THEREFORE...THE MAIN
THREAT FROM TODAYS CONVECTION WILL BE THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS
GROUNDS THAT HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SATURATED FROM THE RECENT RAINS OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A LOW DIURNAL RANGE BETWEEN
MAX AND MIN TEMPS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN THREAT. STAYED ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS MAXES...AND THE HIGHER SIDE OF
MODEL MOS FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE THE RULE FOR THE SHORT TERM AS
SUMMERTIME PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND
FLAT RIDGING CONTINUING ALOFT. THIS CREATES A WARM...HUMID...AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WITH LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EACH DAY AS CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE
FLAT 5H RIDGING WHICH SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...A WEAK VORT WILL
CROSS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING THIS FEATURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...AND THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
VORT...AND AFTN INSTABILITY. ASSUMING THE VORT MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY...WILL CAP POP AT LOW-CHC...AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE DRIEST
DAY OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED IN A
CONTINUED HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION LOOKS
UNLIKELY...OR ISOLATED AT WORST...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN A SATURATED COLUMN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BIG CHANGES TO THE UPPER PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED...BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES TO BE EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. 600DM RIDGE AT 5H EXPANDS ACROSS THE
SW...CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION...FORCING A DEEPENING
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED...WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH BOOKENDED BY LARGE RIDGES BOTH
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM. THIS CAUSES THE LONGITUDINAL FLOW TO COME
TO A SLOW/HALT...AND THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HOWEVER...WITH TROUGH AXIS REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE
AREA...DEEP SW FLOW WILL ADVECT TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AGAIN INTO THE
COLUMN...EVEN AS BERMUDA HIGH SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN. THIS SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A VERY WET PERIOD RETURNING TO THE CAROLINAS...AND
SAT-MON COULD BE EVEN WETTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN. WPC
QPF GRAPHICS SUPPORT THIS...AS CHANNELED MOISTURE TAPS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND STREAMS RIGHT INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE CHC
POP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO AND LOWS JUST A
BIT ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY PLAGUE THE TERMINALS
AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THIS HUMID AIR MASS REMAINING ACROSS
THE REGION. POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH MAINLY IFR
CIGS INLAND...BELOW 1K FEET...AND MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. CANNOT
RULE OUT TEMPO IFR FOR THE COASTAL SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER FOR IFR CIGS AT KLBT/KFLO. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHRA/TSRA SHIFTS INLAND
DURING THE AFTN...WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEING
THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISMS. TEMPO MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PRODUCE S/SW
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS INLAND TERMINALS...AROUND 10 KT...EXCEPT UP TO
15 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMS DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION LATER TODAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISO/SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF
THE ILM WATERS PRIOR TO EXTENDING INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SW
WIND DIRECTION BECOMING DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE AREA WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE SFC
PG WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE LOOSE SIDE THIS PERIOD...AND SHOULD
SUPPORT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 KT WIND SPEEDS. THE HIER SPEEDS LIKELY TO
BE AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR SHORE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RUN AROUND 3 FEET...WITH FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT. THE
ESE-SE GROUND SWELL AT 7 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUING SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
WHILE THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY STATIC...GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS CAUSES SW WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM 10-15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY...TO 15-20 KTS DURING THURSDAY.
WHILE A RESIDUAL 8 SEC SE SWELL WILL PERSIST IN THE WAVE
SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED THANKS
TO THE INCREASING WINDS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE AMPLITUDES WILL GROW FROM
2-4 FT WEDNESDAY...TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY...AND A FEW 6 FTERS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR
A POTENTIAL SCA BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE AND COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST...WILL KEEP A CONTINUOUSLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS HELPS SW WINDS
RISE TO AROUND 20 KTS BOTH DAYS...AND SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO
THESE GUSTY WINDS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 4-7 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL
LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
MARINE...DCH/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
102 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY NEAR 12 UTC
GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE GIVEN
MARGINAL EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS AND A EXPECTED
DECREASE IN HAIL AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK.
IN REGARDS TO TUESDAY...CONSIDERING THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. VERY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.75 INCHES
AND K INDEX VALUES OF 40 TO 45 C.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
CURRENTLY...AN LONE CELL WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MCLEAN COUNTY
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST 01Z HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND
DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT SO
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AS CURRENT CONVECTION IN CENTRAL MONTANA TRANSLATES EAST.
BULK SHEAR OVER THIS AREA SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THUS
HAVE KEPT SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST INTO THE FAR
NORTH CENTRAL TOWARD MORNING. FOG CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL WITH A
STEADY SOUTHEAST FLOW...BUT DO THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF
INCREASING LOW STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
UPDATE THIS EVENING DEALS MAINLY WITH EVENING CONVECTION. STILL
QUITE UNSTABLE THIS EVENING BUT MODELS SUGGEST WITHOUT
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TO INITIATE CONVECTION...THE CAP
WILL HOLD. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED JUST
NORTH OF BISMARCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTH IN CASE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MAKES IT UP TO
THE BORDER. IF WE COULD GET A CELL TO BREAK THE CAP WE COULD STILL
SEE A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM BUT WITH A WEAK SHEAR PROFILE
THIS EVENING...ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOKS LESS LIKELY THAN IT DID
EARLIER IN THE DAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND DEVELOP LOW STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH A STEADY
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT...THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LIMITED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS NOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
LATEST HRRR...RAP...AND BOTH THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING
CONVECTION FIRING OFF ANYWHERE FROM NOW THROUGH 21Z OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS FOR
THESE AREAS. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET WITH THE MID LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION STILL IN PLACE. WIND DISCONTINUITY/WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS APPARENT WHEN LOOKING AT WIND AND DEWPOINT FIELDS.
MOISTURE IS CONVERGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE STRONGER. DEWPOINT TEMPS
LOWER FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAKER SFC WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. INCOMING S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
NEARING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION ONCE AFTERNOON HEATING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE CAP.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE EVENTUALLY WINDING
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE MANY AREAS...SO
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MENTION SEVERE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN
CASE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECOMES NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. MODELS ARE ALSO PUTTING THE
HEAVIEST QPF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AWAY FROM THE AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BY AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THEN WANE WEST TO EAST
AND END QUICKLY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE
WEDNESDAY A WESTERLY FLOW ENSUES WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. TRENDS WITH THE 12Z RUNS PUSH
PREVIOUS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
NOW INTO CANADA RESULTING IN AN OVERALL DRY SCENARIO. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. THEREAFTER...MOSTLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES NORTH WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WELL INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER A COMPENSATORY
NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH DAKOTA WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MANY SHORTWAVES WILL
TOP THE RIDGE AND SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHICH IS A COMMON THEME WITH RIDGE RUNNERS TOPPING THE
RIDGE THIS TIME OF YEAR. FAVORED AREAS WOULD BE THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS SHOWS A COUPLE OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THESE WAVES
FURTHER EAST THAN THE GFS...SO TOO UNCLEAR ON EXACT DETAILS AT THIS
TIME. WILL USE THE ALLBLEND WHICH CARRIES A SLIGHT MENTION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
FOR TONIGHT...MVFR STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES...SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KISN BY 12 UTC AS STORMS APPROACH FROM MONTANA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
236 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A wet pattern will continue across the Inland Northwest through
mid week...with frequent showers and the potential for
thunderstorms. The weather the second half of the week will be
dramatically different as a warming and drying trend quickly
develops by late week. Summer-like temperatures will be likely as
we move towards the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Little if any change to the longwave pattern
consisting of large longwave trof offshore up against inland
ridging which continues to funnel through negatively tilted
disturbances tied into moderate and effective sources of moisture.
The end result is another fairly wet forecast for today that shows
some improvement after 11 pm tonight but still not yet enough to
dry it out totally as per the latest GFS with a number of this
morning`s HRRR model runs support this solution. Otherwise with
such abundant moisture lingering from past and present rainfall
some low clouds and fog may get mentioned at times in the mix.
Minor change was removal of thunderstorm mention near the cascades
as lapse rates don`t appear to be steep enough to support it there
but have left minor mention for afternoon and evening further east
closer to Spokane and vicinity and the North Idaho Panhandle.
/Pelatti
Wed through Sat morning: Following what should be our last day of
meaningful chances of pcpn on Wed into Wed Nt will be a rapid
warming and drying trend beginning Thurs. This pcpn chance Wed
should not be too widespread, but certainly heaviest during the
afternoon and evening as the region remains under a long-fetch
moisture plume drifting north. This pcpn threat will last into
Thurs morning. Though not currently in the fcst, there could be an
isolated threat of thunder Wed afternoon across NE Wa as well as
near the Camas Prairie and Nrn Blue Mtns of Wa. One note of
interest concerning pcpn chances Fri Nt: The GFS advects of plume
of elevated instability above about 700mb north through Oregon and
into SE Wa Fri Nt. The RH in this layer a rather dry, and the GFs
is the only model guidance that produces nocturnal pcpn (very
light and spotty). We did not put any of this pcpn in the fcst,
but it`s something to watch. 500mb ht rises close of 150-200m,
accompanying 850mb temp rises around 10c, will push hi temps
nearly 10F above normal by Fri. bz
Saturday through Tuesday...An upper level ridge will amplify
dramatically over the Inland Northwest through early next week,
with the result being the hottest temperatures we`ve seen so far
this early summer season (it`s still very early). All the gnashing of
teeth regarding the recent rainfall and cool temperatures will
stop as temperatures will warm well into the 80s and 90s, with
isolated locations approaching the century mark. The extended
models produce high temperatures that are 15+ above normal. Had
it not been for the recent soaking rainfalls the hot temperatures
may not be as hard to realize. But since many areas have received
their June`s average total rainfall over the last week, afternoon
temperatures should remain below the hottest of the guidance
numbers. At least through the weekend. If the ridge continues to
amplify next week, enough drying at the surface would allow for
even higher temperatures. ty
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An exiting weather system will leave some remaining
moisture and residual showers overnight. As a result, we will
continue to see the possibility of MVFR cigs and vis at times
overnight with the threat of valley fog especially north of
Interstate 90 through 17Z Tuesday. Another moisture surge moves
into the Cascades with a round of showers progressing from southwest
to northeast through the day on Tuesday. There will also be a
possibility of isolated thunderstorms and localized MVFR ceilings
late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. TC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 65 52 73 54 79 57 / 90 50 30 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 65 52 72 53 79 54 / 90 50 30 10 0 0
Pullman 65 53 73 54 81 53 / 80 50 40 10 0 0
Lewiston 73 57 81 58 89 60 / 80 60 40 20 0 0
Colville 69 52 74 53 82 53 / 90 60 40 20 0 0
Sandpoint 66 51 71 52 77 50 / 90 60 40 20 0 0
Kellogg 63 50 69 52 77 56 / 90 60 30 20 0 0
Moses Lake 70 57 78 58 86 59 / 70 20 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 70 55 77 60 84 63 / 80 20 20 10 0 0
Omak 70 53 76 54 82 57 / 80 30 20 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1222 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
AT 3 PM...A SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST IOWA. THIS LINE HAS WIPED OUT MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY THAT MANY OF 24.00Z AND 24.06Z MODELS WERE FORECASTING
TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. EVEN SOME OF THE 24.12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS LINE WELL...SO THEY ARE
TOO HIGH ON THEIR CAPES ACROSS IOWA. IN ADDITION...THIS LINE ALSO
DISRUPTED THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING LOOKS
MUCH LESS THAN WHAT IT WAS LOOKING LIKE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FOR OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS PERIOD
IS GOING TO MATERIALIZE. THE 24.12Z NAM WHICH HAD A SLIGHTLY
BETTER HANDLE ON THE SQUALL LINE PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH
TO THE MISSOURI AND IOWA BORDER...THUS ITS BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THE 925 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT HAS SHIFTED TOWARD SOUTHERN IOWA. IF THIS VERIFIES...
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD. EVEN THE LATEST RAP IS LEANING TOWARD THIS SCENARIO
TOO. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. WITH ITS PRECIPTABLE WATER
VALUE CLOSE TO 2.00 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS UP TO
4.5 KM...THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WITH SO MANY
DIVERSE MODEL SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO LOWER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SOME AND ALSO SHIFTED THE HIGHER CHANCES TO LATER IN THE NIGHT.
HOPEFULLY...THE 24.00Z MODELS WILL BE BETTER AT RESOLVING THE
STABLE LAYER THAT WAS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
INCREASE ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR
NORTH THIS OCCUR. THE 24.18Z NAM AND 24.12Z GFS WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD FALL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. MEANWHILE
THE 24.12Z ECMWF AND GEM WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD
FALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WITH THE INITIAL CONDITIONS SO
MUDDLED...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD REMAINS UNCLEAR DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES WILL END UP FROM TONIGHT
AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF
HAVE THEIR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
THAT THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
IOWA...AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST WITH THE SHORT WAVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OVER 4 KM AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING.
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLOWLY
DROP TO AROUND 1.60 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS FALL
INTO THE 3 TO 3.5 KM RANGE. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN...THE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT THEY
ARE FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AIMED RIGHT AT
THE AREA. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES CONTINUE
TO REDEVELOP BACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE 25.03Z HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND SHOWS THE
CONVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR SO WHEN THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STARTS TO REFOCUS BACK ON THE ON GOING ACTIVITY ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. PLAN TO CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER AT
BOTH SITES THROUGH 10Z AND THEN SHOW VCTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
TUESDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE THE ACTIVITY IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT.
SHOULD SEE A BREAK FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND DEVELOPS. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE FRONT HAS BEEN
MOVING AND IS NOW INTO SOUTHERN IOWA SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR IT TO BE NEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAPIDLY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
FRONT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
FOR BOTH SITES TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY AND LATER FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO DETAIL THIS BETTER WHEN THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER AS TO
WHERE THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013
WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS IN THE 24.12Z AND 24.18Z
MODELS...CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED ON THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH MANY RIVERS REMAINING EITHER HIGH OR ARE
FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THAT HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MEANWHILE OTHER
MODELS HINT THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SUCH DIVERSE SPREADS IN THE MODELS...OPTED
NOT TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-
053>055-061.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1118 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA RIDGE KEEPS THE REGION LOCKED IN A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
NEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BUT BEGIN TO SLOW UPON ITS
ARRIVAL. THE FRONT SHOULD LIMP THROUGH BY FRIDAY BUT THEN STALL TO
OUR IMMEDIATE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWS A MUCH LESS DYNAMIC SET-UP IN OUR CWA FROM
YDA AS UPSTREAM 700 AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE 2 TO 4C WARMER AND GONE
IS THE STGR DPVA AND 50-60KT JET STREAK FROM YDA. 12Z WRF-NMMB
KEEPS DECENT FORECAST BULK SHEAR NORTH OF OUR CWA AND FCST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ABOUT 1C/KM LESS THAN YESTERDAY. OVERALL
THINK THAT THE LATEST HR3 AND RAP HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
EVOLUTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THAN THE MORE
CHARGED 00Z HI RES NMM AND ARW DO. NOTWITHSTANDING ABOVE AND I HAVE
BEEN WRONG BEFORE AND WILL BE WRONG AGAIN (MAYBE BY 4 PM OR EVEN
EARLIER), WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CONVECTION FAR NORTH EVOLVES FROM
NWRN PA AS ITS THE CLOSEST TO THE BEST FCST BULK SHEAR. WE
ADJUSTED POP ORIENTATION HIGHEST NNW AND LOWEST SSE IN OUR CWA.
12Z UA ANLYS SUGGESTING NO FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO MAX TEMPS NEEDED.
SURPRISED HOW DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLING TO DROP IN SPITE OF
DRIER AIR AGAIN JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NUDGED THEM UPWARD
AND MAX HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 90S.
THE CURRENT RIDGING IS KEEPING THE AREA DRY THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LINGERING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU...WILL CREATE MORE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS MUCH
AS YESTERDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CHC POPS IN
THE FCST. THE UPPER WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE STORMS WILL HAVE A GREATER FORWARD (ERLY)
MOTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE DAY2 OF OUR LATEST (EXPECTED) HEAT WAVE. DEW
POINT READINGS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT LESS THAN YDAY WITH A MORE
WRLY FLOW ALOFT. WE DO NOT EXPECT THAT THE APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE
GREAT ENOUGH FOR ANY HEAT RELATED HEADLINES TODAY...BUT CARE SHOULD
STILL BE EXERCISED FOR THOSE WHO WILL BE OUTDOORS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
ANOTHER MILD/HUMID...BUT DRY FCST IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE METRO AREAS AND THE DELMARVA...WHILE
UPPER 60S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NRN NJ. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SHOWERS TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A RATHER ROBUST BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WHILE THE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF OUR REGION
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PLACES US IN A DEEPENING
EAST COAST TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO DEEPEN WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALSO
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF ANY WEST-EAST MOVING SYSTEMS AND EFFECTIVELY
KEEP US UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
BEFORE THE BLOCKING GETS FULLY SETUP WE CONTINUE WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE JET STREAM STILL REMAINS
LOCKED FAR TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONGTERM. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CONTINUED
ONSLAUGHT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SO ORGANIZATION DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE AN ISSUE THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. 850MB TEMPERATURES JUMP CLOSE TO 20C BUT
STILL THINK THAT CLOUD COVER WILL PLAGUE THE REGION EARLIER ON
WEDNESDAY THAN IN DAYS PAST. THERE COULD EVEN BE ON-GOING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO HELP HAMPER HIGHS REACHING
THE MID-90S. PLAYED IT A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND WENT LOW-90S
ACROSS THE METRO AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST AS
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP TO WARM THEM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WE START TO SEE THE ZONAL FLOW BREAK DOWN AS A
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE JET AND DRAGS TO INTO THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SETUP
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PUMP IN EVEN MORE MOISTURE. DECENT CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING IMPULSE. THURSDAY IS SETTING UP TO BE AN
ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS PUT
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALLOWING FOR MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS.
THURSDAY COULD ALSO BE THE LAST DAY OF 90+F WE SEE THIS WEEK, BUT
THIS GREATLY DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION.
FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE
COLD FRONT, TIED TO AN ADVANCING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
NEARS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY LEFT OVER FROM THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED INITIATION
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A FEW BREAKS
IN THE OVERALL CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY THAN THURSDAY SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THE
CURRENT HEAT WAVE BY THEN.
THE MID-LEVEL LOW SHOULD RETROGRADE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON FRIDAY SO WE LOSE A BIT OF THE COLD POOL INTERACTION BUT WE ALSO GAIN A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE. THIS SETUP MAY MIMIC WHAT
OCCURRED LATE LAST WEEK WHERE CONVECTION BEGAN LATE MORNING AND THEN
FORMED INTO A LARGE BLOB OF SLOW MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS CAUSING FLASH
FLOODING. GRANTED THERE IS THE LINEAR LIFTING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
BUT IT REALLY DOES NOT FLY THROUGH THE REGION AND JUST SLOWLY LIMPS
THROUGH.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WE KEEP THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION WITH PRETTY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS MULTIPLE
WAVES RIDE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BE IN A
GOOD SPOT WITH US IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FOR A PROLONGED TIME
PERIOD. PWATS WILL STILL REMAIN VERY LARGE AND THUS WE CONTINUE TO
RUN THE RISK FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE ON THE SEASONAL SIDE FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AFTER SUNRISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLR WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS
EXPECTED. DURING THE AFTERNOON...CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL FORM. WE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS IN FROM PHL
NORTHWARD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON W/SW AROUND 10-12 KTS. SEA BREEZE
FRONT SHOULD STAY NEAR THE COAST AND BAY.
THIS EVENING...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DIMINISH BY 01-02Z AND THEN
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR AS THEY DID MONDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHORT PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR IN MORNING FOG AND/OR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL AS MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP A W/SW
WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER WILL RESUME LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE AROUND 2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY.
REMEMBER...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT
THE FORECAST INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MIGHT BRING SCA CRITERIA
BASED ON SWELLS, MORE SO THAN WINDS, TO THE OCEAN WATERS LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW REMAINS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE OFTEN IS TOO
BULLISH UNDER THESE REGIMES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE STAND A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF HAVING THE WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD IN PHILADELPHIA. WE LOOKED BACK AT THE 10 PREVIOUS WETTEST
JUNES ON RECORD AND SAW HOW THE REST OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER
WENT FORWARD. WET BEGETTED(SP) MORE WET. GIVEN HOW WET THE GFS AND
ECMWF LOOK INTO THE START OF JULY THAT NOTION IS HOLDING. BOTH
ENSUING MONTHS AVERAGED WETTER THAN THE CURRENT NORMALS WITH EIGHT
OF THE TEN MONTHS COMBINED AVERAGING WETTER THAN NORMAL. ALL OF
THE MONTHS HAD TWO INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES WENT, JULY AVERAGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CURRENT
NORMAL, WHILE AUGUST WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT NORMAL. SIX OF
THE TEN AUGUSTS WERE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN JULY.
YEAR JULY AVG JULY AUG AVG AUGUST
TEMP PCPN TEMP PCPN
1887 80.7 7.14 74.0 2.31
1906 75.6 5.33 76.2 9.56
1928 77.3 3.60 77.2 5.47
1938 77.3 6.52 78.3 4.10
1962 72.0 2.30 72.0 6.58
1969 75.1 8.33 75.2 2.66
1973 77.9 2.39 78.7 2.03
1975 76.6 6.32 77.0 2.11
2003 78.7 2.01 78.2 3.26
2006 79.4 4.27 78.1 3.93
AVG 77.1 4.82 76.5 4.20
1981-2010 NML 78.1 4.35 76.6 3.50
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
911 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA RIDGE KEEPS THE REGION LOCKED IN A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
NEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BUT BEGIN TO SLOW UPON ITS
ARRIVAL. THE FRONT SHOULD LIMP THROUGH BY FRIDAY BUT THEN STALL TO
OUR IMMEDIATE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MANY CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. LOOKS LIKE THE SPC WRF
AND LATEST RAP ARE VERIFYING THE BEST WITH CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST, SO WE SCALED BACK THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL IN OUR CWA
SLIGHTLY. BOTH HI RES NMM AND ARW LOOK TOO BULLISH WITH LEAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LESS OF AN INVERSION THAN YESTERDAY. SO
WOULD EXPECT DEW POINTS TO DROP OFF QUICKER. FORECAST CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE CLOSE (OR EVEN HIER) THAN SOUNDING FORECAST MAX TEMPS.
THIS TOO POINTS TO WAITING FOR THE GREAT LAKES CONVECTION TO GET
HERE VS HOME GROWN, THUS LATER TIMING. 500MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 3C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, SO CONVECTION WILL HAVE A LESS
HOSPITABLE AIR MASS TO BECOME VIGOROUS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MAYBE A 1-2F BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS. THE COMBO IS STILL KEEPING OUR
HEAT INDEX VALUES 90-95 BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR TODAY.
FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOME UPPER
RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE AREA BEHIND YESTERDAYS SHORT WAVE. THIS
RIDGING WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE AREA DRY THIS MORNING...BUT THEN THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LINGERING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU...WILL CREATE MORE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AS
YESTERDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CHC POPS IN THE
FCST. THE UPPER WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE
STORMS WILL HAVE A GREATER FORWARD (ERLY) MOTION. OUR CWA IS IN
SPC`S GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE DAY2 OF OUR LATEST (EXPECTED) HEAT WAVE. DEW
POINT READINGS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT LESS THAN YDAY WITH A MORE
WRLY FLOW ALOFT. WE DO NOT EXPECT THAT THE APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE
GREAT ENOUGH FOR ANY HEAT RELATED HEADLINES TODAY...BUT CARE SHOULD
STILL BE EXERCISED FOR THOSE WHO WILL BE OUTDOORS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
ANOTHER MILD/HUMID...BUT DRY FCST IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE METRO AREAS AND THE DELMARVA...WHILE
UPPER 60S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NRN NJ. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SHOWERS TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A RATHER ROBUST BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WHILE THE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF OUR REGION
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PLACES US IN A DEEPENING
EAST COAST TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO DEEPEN WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALSO
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF ANY WEST-EAST MOVING SYSTEMS AND EFFECTIVELY
KEEP US UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
BEFORE THE BLOCKING GETS FULLY SETUP WE CONTINUE WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE JET STREAM STILL REMAINS
LOCKED FAR TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONGTERM. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CONTINUED
ONSLAUGHT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SO ORGANIZATION DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE AN ISSUE THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. 850MB TEMPERATURES JUMP CLOSE TO 20C BUT
STILL THINK THAT CLOUD COVER WILL PLAGUE THE REGION EARLIER ON
WEDNESDAY THAN IN DAYS PAST. THERE COULD EVEN BE ON-GOING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO HELP HAMPER HIGHS REACHING
THE MID-90S. PLAYED IT A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND WENT LOW-90S
ACROSS THE METRO AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST AS
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP TO WARM THEM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WE START TO SEE THE ZONAL FLOW BREAK DOWN AS A
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE JET AND DRAGS TO INTO THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SETUP
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PUMP IN EVEN MORE MOISTURE. DECENT CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING IMPULSE. THURSDAY IS SETTING UP TO BE AN
ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS PUT
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALLOWING FOR MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS.
THURSDAY COULD ALSO BE THE LAST DAY OF 90+F WE SEE THIS WEEK, BUT
THIS GREATLY DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION.
FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE
COLD FRONT, TIED TO AN ADVANCING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
NEARS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY LEFT OVER FROM THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED INITIATION
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A FEW BREAKS
IN THE OVERALL CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY THAN THURSDAY SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THE
CURRENT HEAT WAVE BY THEN.
THE MID-LEVEL LOW SHOULD RETROGRADE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON FRIDAY SO WE LOSE A BIT OF THE COLD POOL INTERACTION BUT WE ALSO GAIN A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE. THIS SETUP MAY MIMIC WHAT
OCCURRED LATE LAST WEEK WHERE CONVECTION BEGAN LATE MORNING AND THEN
FORMED INTO A LARGE BLOB OF SLOW MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS CAUSING FLASH
FLOODING. GRANTED THERE IS THE LINEAR LIFTING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
BUT IT REALLY DOES NOT FLY THROUGH THE REGION AND JUST SLOWLY LIMPS
THROUGH.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WE KEEP THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION WITH PRETTY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS MULTIPLE
WAVES RIDE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BE IN A
GOOD SPOT WITH US IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FOR A PROLONGED TIME
PERIOD. PWATS WILL STILL REMAIN VERY LARGE AND THUS WE CONTINUE TO
RUN THE RISK FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE ON THE SEASONAL SIDE FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AFTER SUNRISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLR WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS
EXPECTED. DURING THE AFTERNOON...CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL FORM. THE PROB30 FCST FROM EARLIER WAS LEFT
IN THE 06Z TAFS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON W/SW AROUND 10-12 KTS.
THIS EVENING...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DIMINISH BY 01-02Z AND THEN
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR AS THEY DID MONDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHORT PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR IN MORNING FOG AND/OR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL AS MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP A W/SW
WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER WILL RESUME LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE AROUND 2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY.
REMEMBER...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT
THE FORECAST INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MIGHT BRING SCA CRITERIA
BASED ON SWELLS, MORE SO THAN WINDS, TO THE OCEAN WATERS LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW REMAINS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE OFTEN IS TOO
BULLISH UNDER THESE REGIMES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE STAND A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF HAVING THE WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD IN PHILADELPHIA. WE LOOKED BACK AT THE 10 PREVIOUS WETTEST
JUNES ON RECORD AND SAW HOW THE REST OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER
WENT FORWARD. WET BEGETTED(SP) MORE WET. GIVEN HOW WET THE GFS AND
ECMWF LOOK INTO THE START OF JULY THAT NOTION IS HOLDING. BOTH
ENSUING MONTHS AVERAGED WETTER THAN THE CURRENT NORMALS WITH EIGHT
OF THE TEN MONTHS COMBINED AVERAGING WETTER THAN NORMAL. ALL OF
THE MONTHS HAD TWO INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES WENT, JULY AVERAGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CURRENT
NORMAL, WHILE AUGUST WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT NORMAL. SIX OF
THE TEN AUGUSTS WERE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN JULY.
YEAR JULY AVG JULY AUG AVG AUGUST
TEMP PCPN TEMP PCPN
1887 80.7 7.14 74.0 2.31
1906 75.6 5.33 76.2 9.56
1928 77.3 3.60 77.2 5.47
1938 77.3 6.52 78.3 4.10
1962 72.0 2.30 72.0 6.58
1969 75.1 8.33 75.2 2.66
1973 77.9 2.39 78.7 2.03
1975 76.6 6.32 77.0 2.11
2003 78.7 2.01 78.2 3.26
2006 79.4 4.27 78.1 3.93
AVG 77.1 4.82 76.5 4.20
1981-2010 NML 78.1 4.35 76.6 3.50
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1123 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALSO SHIFT THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL
NOT DROP OFF THAT MUCH. WE WILL SWITCH BACK TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER AND CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...STILL LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. 12Z KGYX RAOB SHOWS G0OD CAPPING...BUT THIS SHOULD
WEAKEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS WEAK 500MB WAVE TRACKS JUST TO
THE N OF THE CWA...AND 500MB HEIGHTS FALL. ALSO...WILL SEE UVV
DEVELOP NEAR JET ENTRY REGION PASSING OVER NRN ZONES. EXPECTING
SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS TOP DEVELOP TOUR WEST AND TRACK E ACROSS
THE AREA MID-LATE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING MAINLY STRONG WINDS. COULD
SEE SOME PULSE TYPE STORMS AHEAD THIS LINE AS WELL. HEAVY RAIN IS
ANOTHER PROBLEM AS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.5-1.8 LATER
TODAY.
PREVIOUSLY...LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BEGINNING AROUND 18Z OVER FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE
RACING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WIND FIELDS WILL BE INCREASING (AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL) WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN PLACE...CONVECTION TODAY WILL
BE MORE ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY AS THE WIND MAX APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS AS CAPE VALUES RAPIDLY CLIMB WITH GOOD SOLAR HEATING TODAY.
HAVE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY DROP VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING...BUT TRAINING OF SHOWERS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...UNTIL 11 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AFTER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RAINS...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AS WELL.
READINGS OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SHOOT UP QUICKLY AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...SO A HEAT WAVE (3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES) IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK ON EVOLVING LONGWAVE
PATTERN. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE WARM...HUMID...AND WET
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN THE DAILIES...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY THEN SLOW DOWN AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING WARM, HUMID, AND WET WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
MORNING FOG IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...
THU - SAT...AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM...
FRI - SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
956 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A BROAD AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EASTWARD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930AM UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS ON TRACK TO DEVELOP EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING IN A VERY HUMID AIR MASS.
THIS HEATING ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. THESE FACTORS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND
DOWN LATER IN THE EVENING.
UPDATE 0520L: FEW INITIAL SHOWERS/TSTM INTO XTRM NRN AND WRN MAINE
ATTM... ADJUSTED POPS/HRLY TEMPS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED
TRENDS NXT FEW HRS...
QUIET ACROSS THE FA FOR NOW AS WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS HAS
EXITED OUR SERN AREAS WHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IS NOTED NW-N OF THE FA ALONG AND JUST W OF THE ST LAWRENCE... NR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY N OF THE REGION XTNDG WNW-ESE FROM JAMES
BAY ACROSS THE GASPE AND INTO THE GULF OF THE ST LAWRENCE. SEVERAL
WEAK LOWS CONT TO SLIDE ESEWRD ALONG THIS BNDRY W/ THE STRONGEST OF
THESE NR THE SERN TIP OF JAMES BAY ATTM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND ALLOW THIS SFC LOW NR JAMES BAY TO DROP SEWRD ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY W/ THE FRONTAL BNDRY SAGGING SWRD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATE TDY THRU TNGT. VRY WARM/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA S OF THIS BNDRY W/ SBCAPES FCST FROM
1000-2500 J/KG AND THIS WILL COMBINE W/ STRONG SFC AND UPPER
DYNAMICS AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY AND LOW PRES SAG SEWRD TOWARDS THE
AREA LATER TDY TO PRODUCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO PSBLY SEVERE
TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY THE SPC HAS ALL BUT OUR DOWNEAST
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR W/ DAMAGING WNDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
INITIAL ACTIVITY NW-N OF THE AREA IS FCST BY THE SHORTER TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND RUC TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT
REACHES OUR FAR NRN AREAS ERLY THIS AM BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THIS...
IN ANY CASE...APPEARS STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL DVLP LATER THIS AM
THRU THE AFTN HRS W/ HGHST POPS ACROSS THE N AND E CENTRAL AREAS
IN TO THE EVE HRS W/ LOWEST POPS FAR SW. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SVR
ALONG W/ ENHANCED WORDING FOR HVY RAIN/DAMAGING WNDS AND SMALL HAIL...
FOR TNGT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY WILL BE JUST S AND W OF
THE FA BY ERLY WED W/ WEAK LOW PRES CNTRS OVR ERN NS...SRN MAINE
AND SWRN QUEBEC. HIGH PRES W/ SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO NUDE INTO
FAR NERN AREAS BY LATE TNGT/ERLY WED...
EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY TDY W/ HIGH TEMPS LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON CLD CVR. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME SUN N AND NE W/
MORE PREVALENT SUNSHINE S AND W. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 80S N W/ NR 90 PSBL SRN AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANOTHER
WARM AND MUGGY NGT TNGT ACROSS RN AND WRN AREAS W/ SOME COOLER AND
DRIER AIR LIKELY WORKING INTO NERN AREAS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RATHER LGT WNDS SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF FOG TNGT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN H5 UPPER LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL ALLOW AMPLE MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN H5 UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE THIS
WEEK AND THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS THE DAMP
WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE PARTICULARLY WET WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG ERLY THIS AM MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR TO IFR
CONDS UP UNTIL OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS W/ MVFR/IFR DURING THIS
ACTIVITY. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TNGT ALONG W/ A
THREAT OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.
SHORT TERM: MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES WITH SHOWERS...RAIN AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THRU TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY
FOG TODAY...THEN IN AREAS OF FOG AND ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...KHW/MCW/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
655 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALSO SHIFT THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY`S WILL NOT
DROP OFF THAT MUCH. WE WILL SWITCH BACK TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER AND CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE MADE TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND
CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PREV DISC...
"SUPERMOON" TIDES REACHED 12 FEET IN PORTLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING...
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z OVER FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE RACING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. WIND FIELDS WILL BE INCREASING (AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL) WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN PLACE...CONVECTION TODAY
WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY AS THE WIND MAX APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS AS
CAPE VALUES RAPIDLY CLIMB WITH GOOD SOLAR HEATING TODAY. HAVE
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY DROP VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING...BUT TRAINING OF SHOWERS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...UNTIL 11 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AFTER AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RAINS...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AS WELL.
READINGS OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SHOOT UP QUICKLY AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...SO A HEAT WAVE (3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES) IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK ON EVOLVING LONGWAVE
PATTERN. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE WARM...HUMID...AND WET
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN THE DAILIES...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY THEN SLOW DOWN AND LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING WARM, HUMID, AND WET WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
MORNING FOG IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED BY
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...
THU - SAT...AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM...
FRI - SAT...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1102 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2013
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
Thunderstorm activity across eastern Kansas has persisted into the
late morning hours, casting showers and cloud cover off to the
northeast across our forecast area. While the intensity of the
storms has come down over the past couple of hours, they also
continue to regenerate on the back edge of the line; which appears
due to strong moisture transport across central and eastern Kansas.
Short range models other than the RUC are not picking up on this
continued development at this time. Focusing on moisture transport,
thoughts are that storms could keep redeveloping in eastern Kansas
through noon, after which they should decay through the early
afternoon as the focus for the transport moves north into eastern
Nebraska and Iowa. Cast of showers and isolated embedded
thunderstorms are all that is expected from this morning activity.
Otherwise, looking at temperatures, have shaved a degree or two off
the going highs for today as the cloud cover has been very
persistent, but with some potential for the sun to come out by the
early to mid-afternoon hours, thoughts are it will get hot and steamy
fast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
Challenge for today continues to be chances of precipitation through
this afternoon as a nocturnal MCS propagates across central Kansas
this morning. The 00Z sounding from KTOP showed ample dry layer such
that severe winds were reported with very little convection or rain
associated. Upstream of that a short wave trough and low level
jet...along with around 8 deg K/KM mid level lapse rates supported
upscale growth of an MCS that is producing severe winds as well. This
will be the area to monitor as it moves eastward towards the CWA. At
this time the storm appears to be splitting with a southern area
taking on a more discrete...almost super cellular mode. Given the
0-6km shear in EAX CWA of around 40kts...will have to monitor this
activity closely for potential severe threat. The HRRR favors
maintaining the area although weakening somewhat after sunrise. The
surface winds ahead of this area are decent enough to believe that
the boundary layer is well mixed even if the convection itself is
elevated. The 500 mb flow will still be at least slightly cyclonic
and with the low level moisture and associated CAPE values around
2000 J/KG along with weak short wave ripples in the flow...therefore
a chance of convection will last through the day today. As the
thermal ridge builds into the area though...the chances for
precipitation will decrease with the increased heating of the column
late this evening through the remainder of the short term. All models
show the upper ridge significantly amplifying over the western half
of the US by tomorrow afternoon...so as the nose of the thermal ridge
edges into the area...we will have heat indices in the 103F to 106F
range on Wednesday. Will not issue a headline at this time because if there is
another MCS overnight...some debris cloudiness could limit the
temperatures/heat indices.
As the ridge amplifies to the west the flow will eventually turn more
northwesterly so we will begin to see slight relief by Thursday.
Given this flow and cap in place...precipitation chances decrease as
well during Thursday. The exception is a possible MCS that may from
over eastern Iowa and clip the northeast corner.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
Northwest flow will prevail through this period as a the
ridge/trough pattern amplifies across the CONUS. A weak front should
have moved through the area by Friday morning with scattered
convection lingering into the day. But the bigger effect of the
front will be to cool dewpoints down into the lower 60s or even the
50s. As we see a great influence from the eastern trough,
temperatures aloft cool down and thickness values decrease
substantially. So will also see a nice cool down in the surface
temperatures by Saturday into the first half of next week,
temperatures look to very close to normal, with highs in the lower
to middle 80s. And when combined with the much more comfortable
dewpoints, it looks like we`ll see couple days of pleasant summer
weather.
With regards to precipitation chances, northwest flow is notoriously
tricky for timing and placing precipitation chances. At this time,
there isn`t a great signal to say that any certain period of time
has a greater chance of precipitation than any other period of time.
So instead of carrying some mention of precipitation through the
bulk of the extended range, have trimmed POPs out until there is a
better signal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
Line of storms in eastern Kansas moving towards the east at around
32kts. Main challenge is how much this area of activity will hold
together as it reaches the terminals. Given the evolution...believe
it has a good chance so going with tempo group. Expect the storms
to be fairly weak and bases high so keeping the visibility at 5SM and
the CB deck around 8K feet. Will closely monitor as daybreak
approaches. Otherwise...winds will also be a challenge today...gusty
from the south through the period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cutter
SHORT TERM...Adolphson
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Adolphson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
558 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
Challenge for today continues to be chances of precipitation through
this afternoon as a nocturnal MCS propagates across central Kansas
this morning. The 00Z sounding from KTOP showed ample dry layer such
that severe winds were reported with very little convection or rain
associated. Upstream of that a short wave trough and low level
jet...along with around 8 deg K/KM mid level lapse rates supported
upscale growth of an MCS that is producing severe winds as well. This
will be the area to monitor as it moves eastward towards the CWA. At
this time the storm appears to be splitting with a southern area
taking on a more discrete...almost supercellular mode. Given the
0-6km shear in EAX CWA of around 40kts...will have to monitor this
activity closely for potential severe threat. The HRRR favors
maintaining the area although weakening somewhat after sunrise. The
surface winds ahead of this area are decent enough to believe that
the boundary layer is well mixed even if the convection itself is
elevated. The 500 mb flow will still be at least slightly cyclonic
and with the low level moisture and associated CAPE values around
2000 J/KG along with weak short wave ripples in the flow...therefore
a chance of convection will last through the day today. As the
thermal ridge builds into the area though...the chances for
precipitation will decrease with the increased heating of the column
late this evening through the remainder of the short term. All models
show the upper ridge significantly amplifying over the western half
of the US by tomorrow afternoon...so as the nose of the thermal ridge
edges into the area...we will have heat indices in the 103F to 106F
range on Wednesday. Will not issue a headline at this time because if there is
another MCS overnight...some debris cloudiness could limit the
temperatures/heat indices.
As the ridge amplifies to the west the flow will eventually turn more
northwesterly so we will begin to see slight relief by Thursday.
Given this flow and cap in place...precipitation chances decrease as
well during Thursday. The exception is a possible MCS that may from
over eastern Iowa and clip the northeast corner.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
Northwest flow will prevail through this period as a the
ridge/trough pattern amplifies across the CONUS. A weak front should
have moved through the area by Friday morning with scattered
convection lingering into the day. But the bigger effect of the
front will be to cool dewpoints down into the lower 60s or even the
50s. As we see a great influence from the eastern trough,
temperatures aloft cool down and thickness values decrease
substantially. So will also see a nice cool down in the surface
temperatures by Saturday into the first half of next week,
temperatures look to very close to normal, with highs in the lower
to middle 80s. And when combined with the much more comfortable
dewpoints, it looks like we`ll see couple days of pleasant summer
weather.
With regards to precipitation chances, northwest flow is notoriously
tricky for timing and placing precipitation chances. At this time,
there isn`t a great signal to say that any certain period of time
has a greater chance of precipitation than any other period of time.
So instead of carrying some mention of precipitation through the
bulk of the extended range, have trimmed POPs out until there is a
better signal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
Line of storms in eastern Kansas moving towards the east at around
32kts. Main challenge is how much this area of activity will hold
together as it reaches the terminals. Given the evolution...believe
it has a good chance so going with tempo group. Expect the storms
to be fairly weak and bases high so keeping the visibility at 5SM and
the CB deck around 8K feet. Will closely monitor as daybreak
approaches. Otherwise...winds will also be a challenge today...gusty
from the south through the period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adolphson
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Adolphson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
700 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK UPPER IMPULSES TRACK JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE IE.
FLAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE BASE OR CENTER LOCATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE
SE U.S. COAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROFFINESS ACROSS
THE SE STATES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO AID IN FIRING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE
THE OTHER AIDS TO KEEP CONVECTION FIRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR DOES INDICATE CONVECTION TO FIRE
AROUND SUNRISE BUT NOT BOUGHT ON ITS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THAT
EARLY. THINKING IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY CONCERNING POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE BY MID MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH MID-
EVENING. NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ACROSS THE FA ONCE AGAIN. THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
TODAYS CONVECTION WILL BE THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS GROUNDS THAT
HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SATURATED FROM THE RECENT RAINS OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS. WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A LOW DIURNAL RANGE BETWEEN MAX AND
MIN TEMPS DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE PCPN THREAT. STAYED ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS MAXES...AND THE HIGHER SIDE
OF MODEL MOS FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE THE RULE FOR THE SHORT TERM AS
SUMMERTIME PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND
FLAT RIDGING CONTINUING ALOFT. THIS CREATES A WARM...HUMID...AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WITH LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EACH DAY AS CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE
FLAT 5H RIDGING WHICH SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...A WEAK VORT WILL
CROSS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING THIS FEATURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...AND THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
VORT...AND AFTN INSTABILITY. ASSUMING THE VORT MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY...WILL CAP POP AT LOW-CHC...AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE DRIEST
DAY OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED IN A
CONTINUED HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION LOOKS
UNLIKELY...OR ISOLATED AT WORST...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN A SATURATED COLUMN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BIG CHANGES TO THE UPPER PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED...BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES TO BE EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. 600DM RIDGE AT 5H EXPANDS ACROSS THE
SW...CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION...FORCING A DEEPENING
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED...WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH BOOKENDED BY LARGE RIDGES BOTH
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM. THIS CAUSES THE LONGITUDINAL FLOW TO COME
TO A SLOW/HALT...AND THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HOWEVER...WITH TROUGH AXIS REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE
AREA...DEEP SW FLOW WILL ADVECT TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AGAIN INTO THE
COLUMN...EVEN AS BERMUDA HIGH SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN. THIS SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A VERY WET PERIOD RETURNING TO THE CAROLINAS...AND
SAT-MON COULD BE EVEN WETTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN. WPC
QPF GRAPHICS SUPPORT THIS...AS CHANNELED MOISTURE TAPS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND STREAMS RIGHT INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE CHC
POP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO AND LOWS JUST A
BIT ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME LIGHT CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP IN BRUNSWICK
COUNTY...SOME SORT OF A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. THE LFC IS A BIT
HIGHER TODAY...NEVERTHELESS SOME SHOWERS MAY AFFECT ILM FOR THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO. LOOK FOR SOME INTERMITTENT IFR CEILINGS AT FLO
FOR THE FIRST HOUR...THEN LIFTING TO MVFR OR SCATTERING. LATER
TODAY...EXPECT ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL END BY 22Z...WITH MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISO/SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ITS HOLD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH OF THE ILM WATERS PRIOR AS IT EXTENDS INLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SW WIND DIRECTION BECOMING DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE BY
LATE IN THIS PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE LOOSE
SIDE THIS...AND SHOULD SUPPORT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 KT WIND SPEEDS.
THE HIER SPEEDS WILL BE AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR
SHORE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FEET...WITH FLUCTUATIONS
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT. THE ESE-SE GROUND SWELL AT 7 TO 9 SECOND
PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUING SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
WHILE THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY STATIC...GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS CAUSES SW WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM 10-15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY...TO 15-20 KTS DURING THURSDAY.
WHILE A RESIDUAL 8 SEC SE SWELL WILL PERSIST IN THE WAVE
SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED THANKS
TO THE INCREASING WINDS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE AMPLITUDES WILL GROW FROM
2-4 FT WEDNESDAY...TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY...AND A FEW 6 FTERS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR
A POTENTIAL SCA BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE AND COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST...WILL KEEP A CONTINUOUSLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS HELPS SW WINDS
RISE TO AROUND 20 KTS BOTH DAYS...AND SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO
THESE GUSTY WINDS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 4-7 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL
LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT WILL AGAIN
BREACH THE 5.5 FT MLLW SHALLOW COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD...AS MEASURED
BY THE ILM TIDE GAGE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER OF DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON. THE WINDOW FOR THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WILL RUN
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK UPPER IMPULSES TRACK JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE IE.
FLAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE BASE OR CENTER LOCATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE
SE U.S. COAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROFFINESS ACROSS
THE SE STATES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO AID IN FIRING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS WILL BE
THE OTHER AIDS TO KEEP CONVECTION FIRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR DOES INDICATE CONVECTION TO FIRE
AROUND SUNRISE BUT NOT BOUGHT ON ITS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THAT
EARLY. THINKING IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MONDAY CONCERNING POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE BY MID MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH MID-
EVENING. NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ACROSS THE FA ONCE AGAIN. THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
TODAYS CONVECTION WILL BE THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS GROUNDS THAT
HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT SATURATED FROM THE RECENT RAINS OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS. WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A LOW DIURNAL RANGE BETWEEN MAX AND
MIN TEMPS DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE PCPN THREAT. STAYED ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS MAXES...AND THE HIGHER SIDE
OF MODEL MOS FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE THE RULE FOR THE SHORT TERM AS
SUMMERTIME PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE AND
FLAT RIDGING CONTINUING ALOFT. THIS CREATES A WARM...HUMID...AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WITH LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EACH DAY AS CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE
FLAT 5H RIDGING WHICH SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...A WEAK VORT WILL
CROSS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING THIS FEATURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...AND THERE WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
VORT...AND AFTN INSTABILITY. ASSUMING THE VORT MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY...WILL CAP POP AT LOW-CHC...AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE DRIEST
DAY OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED IN A
CONTINUED HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE SEVERE CONVECTION LOOKS
UNLIKELY...OR ISOLATED AT WORST...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN A SATURATED COLUMN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BIG CHANGES TO THE UPPER PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED...BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES TO BE EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. 600DM RIDGE AT 5H EXPANDS ACROSS THE
SW...CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION...FORCING A DEEPENING
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED...WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH BOOKENDED BY LARGE RIDGES BOTH
UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM. THIS CAUSES THE LONGITUDINAL FLOW TO COME
TO A SLOW/HALT...AND THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HOWEVER...WITH TROUGH AXIS REMAINING WELL WEST OF THE
AREA...DEEP SW FLOW WILL ADVECT TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AGAIN INTO THE
COLUMN...EVEN AS BERMUDA HIGH SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN. THIS SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A VERY WET PERIOD RETURNING TO THE CAROLINAS...AND
SAT-MON COULD BE EVEN WETTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN. WPC
QPF GRAPHICS SUPPORT THIS...AS CHANNELED MOISTURE TAPS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND STREAMS RIGHT INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE CHC
POP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO AND LOWS JUST A
BIT ABOVE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY PLAGUE THE TERMINALS
AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THIS HUMID AIR MASS REMAINING ACROSS
THE REGION. POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH MAINLY IFR
CIGS INLAND...BELOW 1K FEET...AND MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. CANNOT
RULE OUT TEMPO IFR FOR THE COASTAL SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER FOR IFR CIGS AT KLBT/KFLO. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHRA/TSRA SHIFTS INLAND
DURING THE AFTN...WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEING
THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISMS. TEMPO MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH WILL PRODUCE S/SW
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS INLAND TERMINALS...AROUND 10 KT...EXCEPT UP TO
15 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMS DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION LATER TODAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISO/SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ITS HOLD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH OF THE ILM WATERS PRIOR AS IT EXTENDS INLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SW WIND DIRECTION BECOMING DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT
TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE BY
LATE IN THIS PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE LOOSE
SIDE THIS...AND SHOULD SUPPORT 10 TO POSSIBLY 15 KT WIND SPEEDS.
THE HIER SPEEDS WILL BE AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR
SHORE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FEET...WITH FLUCTUATIONS
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT. THE ESE-SE GROUND SWELL AT 7 TO 9 SECOND
PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUING SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
WHILE THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY STATIC...GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS CAUSES SW WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM 10-15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY...TO 15-20 KTS DURING THURSDAY.
WHILE A RESIDUAL 8 SEC SE SWELL WILL PERSIST IN THE WAVE
SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED THANKS
TO THE INCREASING WINDS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE AMPLITUDES WILL GROW FROM
2-4 FT WEDNESDAY...TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY...AND A FEW 6 FTERS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR
A POTENTIAL SCA BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE AND COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST...WILL KEEP A CONTINUOUSLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS HELPS SW WINDS
RISE TO AROUND 20 KTS BOTH DAYS...AND SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO
THESE GUSTY WINDS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 4-7 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL
LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 615 AM TUESDAY...THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT WILL AGAIN
BREACH THE 5.5 FT MLLW SHALLOW COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD...AS MEASURED
BY THE ILM TIDE GAGE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER OF DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON. THE WINDOW FOR THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WILL RUN
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1014 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE DAY. CLOUDS THINNING OUT THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. IT STILL APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL BE
MOST ACTIVE IN A CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
NORTHERN OHIO WHICH IS ALSO WHERE BETTER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN. THESE STORMS COULD IMPACT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER CHANCE
POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE STORM INITIATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN. PAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE VERY EXTENSIVE NOR
ORGANIZED. WITH FORCING VERY SUBTLE HAVE OPTED TO JUST BROAD BRUSH
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
FORECAST HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CONVECTION AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ILN CWA TONIGHT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO FAVOR
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH LLJ FORCING SETTING UP TO
THE WEST. THOUGH A FEW CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW UPSTREAM
CONVECTION COMING INTO THE CWA (WHICH DOES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
LINGERING INSTABILITY)...POPS WILL BE KEPT SOMEWHAT LOW DURING THE
DIURNAL MIN (30 NW / 20 SE).
ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE ILN CWA WILL
INCREASE...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO RAMP UP JUST WEST OF
THE CWA. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF THE ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW (WHICH WILL NOT LIKELY CROSS THE CWA
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING). THE OVERALL MODEL TREND SEEMS TO ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE (WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
WITH THIS FORECAST INCORPORATING THE PRESENCE (FINALLY) OF SOME
WELL-DEFINED FORCING...AND EXPECTED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
(1500-2000 J/KG...PERHAPS UP TO 3000 J/KG IF UNINHIBITED BY CLOUDS
OR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY)...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE INCREASING DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM...AS WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH A STRENGTHENING
BAND OF LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO CREATE A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. TOUGH TO RULE OUT
ANY PARTICULAR TYPES OR MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AS
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A BIT MORE THAN JUST
THE RUN-OF-THE-MILL STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE HWO WORDING WILL BE REFINED A BIT FOR THIS
THREAT...WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SEEING SOME HYDRO PARAMETERS LIGHT UP A BIT AS WELL (PWAT
WELL OVER 1.50" AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE). THOUGH STORM ELEMENTS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE...SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE ILN CWA THURSDAY...THOUGH THE
FORCING AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROUGH WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF THE
CWA. COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY...SO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN EXIST THURSDAY (HIGHEST IN THE EASTERN
CWA). IN THE WNW FLOW...PROBABLY NOT SAFE TO RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY...THOUGH NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR ORGANIZATION ARE
PRESENT.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY MORNING. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS AROUND 90 (A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FORECAST GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION)...AND DEWPOINTS GETTING TO
AROUND 70 OR EVEN THE LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES WEDNESDAY SHOULD
MAKE IT TO THE MID 90S...SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
CARVE OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONABLE
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
MODELS ARE SHOWING VARIOUS WEAK SHORT WAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE TROUGH BUT IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT ANY KIND OF TIMING. AS A
RESULT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE AND GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR...THINK THE BEST WAY TO GO IS TO TREND THE POPS DIURNAL
BUT KEEP THEM ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING. GIVEN VARYING STORM EVOLUTION AND COVERAGE IN THE
MODELS...HAVE BROAD BRUSHED THE TAFS WITH VCTS/CB UNTIL SIGNALS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CLEARER. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CONTAINING
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. FOR
TONIGHT...PREVIOUS THINKING WAS THE PERHAPS CONVECTION WOULD SHIFT
SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND STAY FOCUSED MORE ACROSS THE SRN GREAT
LAKES. SOME LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT PERHAPS CONVECTION MAY
NOW SEEP SOUTH INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
434 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A wet pattern will continue across the Inland Northwest through
mid week...with frequent showers and the potential for
thunderstorms. The weather the second half of the week will be
dramatically different as a warming and drying trend quickly
develops by late week. Summer-like temperatures will be likely as
we move towards the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...Little if any change to the longwave pattern
consisting of large longwave trof offshore up against inland
ridging which continues to funnel through negatively tilted
disturbances tied into moderate and effective sources of moisture.
The end result is another fairly wet forecast for today that shows
some improvement after 11 pm tonight but still not yet enough to
dry it out totally as per the latest GFS with a number of this
morning`s HRRR model runs support this solution. Otherwise with
such abundant moisture lingering from past and present rainfall
some low clouds and fog may get mentioned at times in the mix.
Minor change was removal of thunderstorm mention near the cascades
as lapse rates don`t appear to be steep enough to support it there
but have left minor mention for afternoon and evening further east
closer to Spokane and vicinity and the North Idaho Panhandle.
/Pelatti
Wed through Sat morning: Following what should be our last day of
meaningful chances of pcpn on Wed into Wed Nt will be a rapid
warming and drying trend beginning Thurs. This pcpn chance Wed
should not be too widespread, but certainly heaviest during the
afternoon and evening as the region remains under a long-fetch
moisture plume drifting north. This pcpn threat will last into
Thurs morning. Though not currently in the fcst, there could be an
isolated threat of thunder Wed afternoon across NE Wa as well as
near the Camas Prairie and Nrn Blue Mtns of Wa. One note of
interest concerning pcpn chances Fri Nt: The GFS advects of plume
of elevated instability above about 700mb north through Oregon and
into SE Wa Fri Nt. The RH in this layer a rather dry, and the GFs
is the only model guidance that produces nocturnal pcpn (very
light and spotty). We did not put any of this pcpn in the fcst,
but it`s something to watch. 500mb ht rises close of 150-200m,
accompanying 850mb temp rises around 10c, will push hi temps
nearly 10F above normal by Fri. bz
Saturday through Tuesday...An upper level ridge will amplify
dramatically over the Inland Northwest through early next week,
with the result being the hottest temperatures we`ve seen so far
this early summer season (it`s still very early). All the gnashing of
teeth regarding the recent rainfall and cool temperatures will
stop as temperatures will warm well into the 80s and 90s, with
isolated locations approaching the century mark. The extended
models produce high temperatures that are 15+ above normal. Had
it not been for the recent soaking rainfalls the hot temperatures
may not be as hard to realize. But since many areas have received
their June`s average total rainfall over the last week, afternoon
temperatures should remain below the hottest of the guidance
numbers. At least through the weekend. If the ridge continues to
amplify next week, enough drying at the surface would allow for
even higher temperatures. ty
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A moist and slightly unstable flow from the southwest
will continue to steer small scale disturbances over the aviation
area today and into the evening. MVFR ceilings and visibilities
mostly due to low level clouds and fog associated with the
abundant low level moisture left due to yesterdays and todays
rainfall. Otherwise some low MVFR ceilings may be associated with
the showers and/or thunderstorms. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 65 52 73 54 79 57 / 90 50 30 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 65 52 72 53 79 54 / 90 50 30 10 0 0
Pullman 65 53 73 54 81 53 / 80 50 40 10 0 0
Lewiston 73 57 81 58 89 60 / 80 60 40 20 0 0
Colville 69 52 74 53 82 53 / 90 60 40 20 0 0
Sandpoint 66 51 71 52 77 50 / 90 60 40 20 0 0
Kellogg 63 50 69 52 77 56 / 90 60 30 20 0 0
Moses Lake 70 57 78 58 86 59 / 70 20 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 70 55 77 60 84 63 / 80 20 20 10 0 0
Omak 70 53 76 54 82 57 / 80 30 20 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
447 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
WHILE HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE INTO TODAY ***
*** THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ***
2 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 80S EVEN ON THE OUTER CAPE AND
MARTHAS VINEYARD. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE DEFINITELY HOT...WE ARE
NOT IN DANGER OF HITTING THE RECORDS TODAY. BOTH BOSTON AND
HARTFORD HAVE HIT 90 DEGREES FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW MAKING IT
AN OFFICIAL HEAT WAVE AT THOSE TWO SITES. OUR TWO OTHER OFFICIAL
CLIMATE STATIONS...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE...HAVE NOT YET HAD A
HEAT WAVE. WORCESTER HAS NOT HAD ANY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 90
DEGREES AND PROVIDENCE HAS HIT 90 DEGREES FOR ONLY THE SECOND DAY
IN A ROW.
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE ALREADY POPPED
ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. LIKE
YESTERDAY... THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR. BETWEEN THIS AND A LACK
OF A GOOD TRIGGER LIKE A SHORTWAVE OR A FRONT...EXPECT THE THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS TO MAINLY BE HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5
AND 2 INCHES WHICH IS 2 TIMES THE NORMAL. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS. THE HRRR MODEL STILL SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 21-01Z. FROM JUST THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE...WOULD HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS LINE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE HRRR IS DOING A GREAT JOB WITH
THE CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SO TEND TO HAVE A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THAT MODELS SOLUTION. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS
NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE CLOSER TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. THERE
IS ACTUALLY A BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INCREASING SHEAR AND PROVIDING
A TRIGGER. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP
CAPE VALUES HIGH. SO WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...25 TO 30 KTS OF
SHEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS UP TO 2 INCHES...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO EDGE IN.
EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
THE MASS PIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
BACK DOOR FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ANY
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE AND THE BACK DOOR FRONT.
HEAVY RAIN AND ANY URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONCE AGAIN...FOG IS LIKELY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEADLINES...
* HEAVY RAIN THREAT PREVAILS THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME
* LOCALIZED URBAN AND LOW LYING AREA FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY
* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
* CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN FOR EARLY SUMMER...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE E.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A RELATIVELY UNSETTLED PATTERN THANKS
TO THE UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW NEAR OR TO THE W OF THE
REGION...THOUGH SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO RETROGRADE THE TROUGH A
BIT FURTHER W LATE IN THE PERIOD /MON- TUE/ TO PUSH THREAT OF
SHOWERS FURTHER W. ALSO NOTING SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN THE
ACTION...MAINLY AROUND THE LATE THU-FRI TIMEFRAME AS SEEN ON 12Z
OP RUNS OF THE GFS/GGEM AND ECMWF. THIS IS JUST ONE
RUN...THOUGH...SO NOT VERY CONFIDENT. WILL STILL SEE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
WITH HIGH PWATS...ON THE ORDER OF 1.7 TO AROUND 2 INCHES WITH
PROLONGED S-SW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY THU AND FRI. WILL NOT SEE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT...BUT MAY SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.
BY THIS WEEKEND...COULD SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BUT THIS WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER THE TROUGH ACTUALLY RETROGRADE AS MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING.
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE WPC
GUIDANCE...WHICH USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEANS. THIS GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY TO THE LAST SEVERAL FORECASTS.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THU INTO FRI MORNING SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING THERE.
WILL ALSO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING...
THOUGH TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THESE WILL OCCUR. DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE LESSER OF A CHANCE OF PRECIP
AS BRIEF LULL MOVES ACROSS. WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES...CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THOUGH SO LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS GOING.
WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST WITH SUCH MUGGY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE S COAST FRIDAY AS S-SW LOW
LEVEL JET SETS UP. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...WILL SEE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME...THOUGH MAY SEE A SLOWLY LOWER CHANCE MON-TUE IF THE
MODELS VERIFY AND TRY TO RETROGRADE INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE W.
KEPT MENTION OF TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS
WEEKEND...THEN MOVED IT W EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE
ON SAT MAY BRING GUSTS ALONG THE S COAST UP TO 25 KT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 00Z...MAINLY VFR. AFTER 21Z...PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
06Z RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND
FOG LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VSBYS GREATEST THREATS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA REMAINS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND. LOCAL +RA EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE...BEST CHANCE
ALONG S COAST. LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH CB ALONG WITH MVFR-
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG MAINLY THU NIGHT. PREVAILING
S-SW WINDS. LLWS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS.
FRIDAY...SHRA/TSRA REMAIN MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVER THE EAST EARLY. MAY
SEE BRIEF LULL IN ACTION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...THOUGH PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. GUSTY S-SW WINDS POSSIBLE. LLWS
POSSIBLE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA OFF AND ON
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. GUSTY S-SW WINDS POSSIBLE. LOW END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS WITH CB ALONG WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. PREVAILING
SW WINDS. LLWS POSSIBLE SAT ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ESSENTIALLY...EXPECTING A REPEAT OF TODAY AND LAST NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THOUGH SEAS
MAY RISE TO ABOUT 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEN BURN OFF BY MIDDAY AND GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY
TSTMS. MAIN THREATS HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THU NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL BRING SEAS UP TO 5-8
FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK
ISLAND SOUNDS AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN
ANY STORMS. PATCHY FOG WITH REDUCED VSBYS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
304 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
WHILE HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE INTO TODAY ***
*** THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ***
2 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 80S EVEN ON THE OUTER CAPE AND
MARTHAS VINEYARD. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE DEFINITELY HOT...WE ARE
NOT IN DANGER OF HITTING THE RECORDS TODAY. BOTH BOSTON AND
HARTFORD HAVE HIT 90 DEGREES FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW MAKING IT
AN OFFICIAL HEAT WAVE AT THOSE TWO SITES. OUR TWO OTHER OFFICIAL
CLIMATE STATIONS...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE...HAVE NOT YET HAD A
HEAT WAVE. WORCESTER HAS NOT HAD ANY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 90
DEGREES AND PROVIDENCE HAS HIT 90 DEGREES FOR ONLY THE SECOND DAY
IN A ROW.
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE ALREADY POPPED
ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. LIKE
YESTERDAY... THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR. BETWEEN THIS AND A LACK
OF A GOOD TRIGGER LIKE A SHORTWAVE OR A FRONT...EXPECT THE THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS TO MAINLY BE HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5
AND 2 INCHES WHICH IS 2 TIMES THE NORMAL. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS. THE HRRR MODEL STILL SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 21-01Z. FROM JUST THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE...WOULD HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS LINE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE HRRR IS DOING A GREAT JOB WITH
THE CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SO TEND TO HAVE A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THAT MODELS SOLUTION. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS
NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE CLOSER TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT. WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. THERE
IS ACTUALLY A BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INCREASING SHEAR AND PROVIDING
A TRIGGER. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP
CAPE VALUES HIGH. SO WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...25 TO 30 KTS OF
SHEAR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS UP TO 2 INCHES...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO EDGE IN.
EXPECT HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
THE MASS PIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
BACK DOOR FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ANY
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE AND THE BACK DOOR FRONT.
HEAVY RAIN AND ANY URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONCE AGAIN...FOG IS LIKELY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEADLINES...
* HEAVY RAIN THREAT PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME
* LOCALIZED URBAN AND LOW LYING AREA FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY
* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT MONDAY
* CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
25/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS. THERE REMAIN SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES...WHICH
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RESOLVE BASED ON THE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS OF ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. AS
SUCH...FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND TO MINIMIZE THE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES.
IT APPEARS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID-LEVEL BLOCKING
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CONUS...PLACING OUR REGION JUST EAST OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE...THIS WOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY MODERATE AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE PREVALENT LATE THIS WEEK.
AM NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT...BUT FINDING IT TOUGH TO FIND
A DAY WITHOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT.
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 00Z...MAINLY VFR. AFTER 21Z...PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
06Z RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND
FOG LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VSBYS GREATEST THREATS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THURSDAY...SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND. LOCAL +RA EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. LOW-VFR TO MVFR
CIGS WITH CB ALONG WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. PREVAILING S-SW
WINDS. LLWS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
+RA EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH
CB ALONG WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. PREVAILING SW WINDS. LLWS
MAY BE POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SAT ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ESSENTIALLY...EXPECTING A REPEAT OF TODAY AND LAST NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THOUGH SEAS
MAY RISE TO ABOUT 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THEN BURN OFF BY MIDDAY AND GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY
TSTMS. MAIN THREATS HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL BRING
SEAS UP TO 5-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...POSSIBLY INTO
RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN ANY STORMS. PATCHY FOG WITH REDUCED VSBYS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
154 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
WHILE HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE INTO TODAY ***
*** THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ***
2 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 80S EVEN ON THE OUTER CAPE AND
MARTHAS VINEYARD. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE DEFINITELY HOT...WE ARE
NOT IN DANGER OF HITTING THE RECORDS TODAY. BOTH BOSTON AND
HARTFORD HAVE HIT 90 DEGREES FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW MAKING IT
AN OFFICIAL HEAT WAVE AT THOSE TWO SITES. OUR TWO OTHER OFFICIAL
CLIMATE STATIONS...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE...HAVE NOT YET HAD A
HEAT WAVE. WORCESTER HAS NOT HAD ANY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 90
DEGREES AND PROVIDENCE HAS HIT 90 DEGREES FOR ONLY THE SECOND DAY
IN A ROW.
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE ALREADY POPPED
ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. LIKE
YESTERDAY... THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR. BETWEEN THIS AND A LACK
OF A GOOD TRIGGER LIKE A SHORTWAVE OR A FRONT...EXPECT THE THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS TO MAINLY BE HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5
AND 2 INCHES WHICH IS 2 TIMES THE NORMAL. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS. THE HRRR MODEL STILL SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 21-01Z. FROM JUST THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE...WOULD HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS LINE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE HRRR IS DOING A GREAT JOB WITH
THE CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SO TEND TO HAVE A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THAT MODELS SOLUTION. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS
NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE CLOSER TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE DOWN AFTER SUNSET
AS DIURNAL HEATING DISSIPATES. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WITH LOW 70S FOR METRO PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON. CHANCES
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH THE
CAPE/ISLANDS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALLY DENSE.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT AND CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAPE VALUES ARE STILL QUIET HIGH AND
WITH THIS TRIGGER ALOFT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD. SHEAR VALUES ARE STRONGER NEARING 25-30KTS AND WITH
PWATS AGAIN NEARING 1.5-2 INCHES...HEAVY DOWNPOURS APPEAR TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AS UPDRAFTS WILL BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEEL A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEADLINES...
* HEAVY RAIN THREAT PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME
* LOCALIZED URBAN AND LOW LYING AREA FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY
* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT MONDAY
* CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
25/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS. THERE REMAIN SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES...WHICH
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RESOLVE BASED ON THE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS OF ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. AS
SUCH...FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND TO MINIMIZE THE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES.
IT APPEARS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID-LEVEL BLOCKING
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CONUS...PLACING OUR REGION JUST EAST OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE...THIS WOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY MODERATE AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE PREVALENT LATE THIS WEEK.
AM NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT...BUT FINDING IT TOUGH TO FIND
A DAY WITHOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT.
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 00Z...MAINLY VFR. AFTER 21Z...PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
06Z RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND
FOG LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VSBYS GREATEST THREATS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THURSDAY...SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND. LOCAL +RA EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. LOW-VFR TO MVFR
CIGS WITH CB ALONG WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. PREVAILING S-SW
WINDS. LLWS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
+RA EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. LOW-VFR TO MVFR CIGS WITH
CB ALONG WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. PREVAILING SW WINDS. LLWS
MAY BE POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SAT ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
A REPEAT ESSENTIALLY OF YESTERDAY. ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF
BY MIDDAY AND GIVES WAY TO LATE DAY TSTMS. MAIN THREATS HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT SCA POTENTIAL INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS MAY REACH 5 FT THANKS TO 15-20 KTS WIND
GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL BRING
SEAS UP TO 5-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...POSSIBLY INTO
RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN ANY STORMS. PATCHY FOG WITH REDUCED VSBYS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION LOCKED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND CROSS THE AREA
BY FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OFF THE COAST. AS A RESULT A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF JULY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NEITHER OF THE MODELS 500MB ANALYSIS LOOKED SPOT ON IN THE MIDWEST
AS THE SERIES OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CONTINUE TO CAUSE
INITIALIZATION ISSUES. IF ANYTHING THE SYSTEMS LOOK SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN MODELED. THERMALLY A GFS AND WRF-NMMB COMPROMISE WORK THE BEST.
BUT THEY DIVERGE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER THAT.
INTO THIS EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH OUR CWA. IN GENERAL THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT ON THE LEVEL OF YESTERDAY. SO FAR THE ORIENTATION
HAS BEEN MORE NORTH THAN SOUTH AND HIEST POPS WERE KEPT THERE.
WHILE ONE OR TWO PULSY TYPE STORMS MIGHT REQUIRE WARNINGS THE
OVERALL WEAK FCST BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH POORER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD KEEP THIS BELOW LEVELS OF YESTERDAY`S CONVECTION. SOME OF THE
12Z MESOSCALE MODELS (SPC WRF/NMM) WENT TOO MUCH THE OTHER WAY AND
SHOWING WAY TOO LITTLE. BEST FIT IS BETWEEN THE RAP AND SLIGHTLY
TONED DOWN HR3.
FARTHER UPSTREAM MORE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE SOME SHORT WAVE SUPPORT, BUT
GIVEN ITS ARRIVAL LATER IN THIS EVENING LOWERS CONFIDENCE LEVELS AS
TO SUSTAINABILITY. WE DID CARRY POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND WE WILL
SEE HOW THE PRESENT DEVELOPMENT EVOLVES.
STAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY REASONABLE WITH MINS AND WE CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW A MET/MAV BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR URBAN AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST, BUT THIS WILL BE THE THIRD STRAIGHT
DAY OF 90 PLUS HEAT AND NOT SURE IF WE ARE GOING TO GET AS MUCH
COOLING FROM TSRAS TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT. NAM MOS IS RUNNING
APPROXIMATELY 3-6F TOO LOW ON HOURLY TEMPS TODAY, SO GUIDANCE WAS
NOT USED ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MOS WHICH HAS VERIFIED BETTER MATCHES
PRETTY CLOSELY WITH FCST 850/925MB TEMPS AS WELL AS 1000-850
THICKNESSES. OF CONCERN ALSO HAS BEEN THAT STAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
MIXING DEW POINTS DOWNWARD TOO QUICKLY THE PAST TWO DAYS. WHETHER ITS
THE LEE SIDE TROF OR JUST HOW WET THIS JUNE HAS BEEN, NOT BANKING ON
THE THIRD TIME BEING THE CHARM. RIGHT NOW THIS APPEARS TO BE ONE
DAY EVENT REASON FOR ADVY VS WARNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER, IF TODAY IS THE RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WEDNESDAY IS SHOWING A TICK UP. NEARLY ALL KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMICALLY FORCINGS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY. THE ONE
PROBLEM WE ARE SEEING WITH WEDNESDAY IS THE SPLIT BETWEEN THE BETTER
FORCING NORTHWEST AND THE GREAT INSTABILITY AND FCST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SE. PLUS THE FACT THE MODELS MAY BE FAST WITH THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION WILL HAVE US KEEP POPS AS CHANCE. SPC SLIGHT RISK
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA IS A GOOD FIT AS THAT IS CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO FORCING WHICH SHOULD BE PLACE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
ORGANIZATIONAL LINE OR CLUSTER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WARM AND STICK AMS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WED NIGHT AND BY THU A
STRONG S/WV, AND LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL APPROACH FROM THE W. THE
CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION BY FRI MRNG. WITH
DEW POINTS INCREASING ON THU IT WILL REMAIN VERY UNCOMFORTABLE
DESPITE MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN ON WED.
WITH A DECENTLY ROBUST LOW (FOR LATE JUNE) AND CDFNT APPROACHING,
THU COULD BE THE BEST SHOT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR THE WEEK. SPC
HAS ALREADY PLACED A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA GENLY WEST OF
PHILADELPHIA IN A SLGT RISK.
THE CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY BUT REMAIN CLOSE
OFFSHORE. PRECIP CHCS WILL DECREASE AND FRIDAY COULD END UP BEING
DRY OR MOSTLY DRY. SWLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AND THE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ANS THE TROF DEEPENS
TO THE W. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WX OVER THE AREA WITH CHCS OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS EACH DAY. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
FEATURE OF NOTE, BUT EACH DAY`S TSTM CHCS WILL BE PARTIALLY BASED
ON BOUNDARIES AND ANY S/WVS THAT MAY BE PASSING THRU THE FLOW,
WHICH EACH MDL WILL HANDLE DIFFERENTLY AND ARE DIFFICULT TO
DIAGNOSE AT THIS TIME SCALE. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS.
MON LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A WK LOW SO WILL GO A TAD HIGHER
THERE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PRECIP CHCS AND LOCATION IN
THE EXTENDD PD.
AFTER THU, TEMPS LOOK TO RETURN CLOSER TO NRML, BUT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABV THRU THE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
18Z TAFS ARE CARRYING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA AIRPORTS NORTHWARD.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THEN WE START ALL OVER
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON BEST FORCING AND WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION IS BOTH
FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS AT NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IS LESS TOWARD THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW AT KACY AND KMIV
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OUTSIDE OF THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KT. SEA BREEZE FRONT
SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH MOVEMENT OFF THE COAST. WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING IT TO REACH KACY.
THIS EVENING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE OHIO VALLEY
ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE KRDG. WE
SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME OUTFLOW VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KTS.
OVERNIGHT WE CARRIED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LATE AT THE FOGGIER MORE
OUTLYING TERMINALS. THIS MIGHT NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT BASED ON ANY
CONVECTION DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE AIRPORTS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
A VFR MORNING IS FORECAST FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS WITH CU BASED
CLOUDS DEVELOPING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS AGAIN. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OFF
THE COAST AGAIN, MAYBE EVEN MORE SO THAN TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY, SO WE
INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR KPHL AS A START.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHORT PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR IN MORNING FOG AND/OR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. MD CONFIDENCE.
THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR (POSSIBLY PROLONGED ONES) IN MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP A W/SW
WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER WILL RESUME LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE AROUND 2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY.
REMEMBER...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT
INCREASING SWLY FLOW MIGHT BRING SCA CRITERIA MAINLY FOR SEAS, MORE SO
THAN WINDS, TO THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING LATER THU AND PSBLY
CONTINUING INTO THE WKND. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE OFTEN IS
TOO BULLISH UNDER THESE REGIMES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
102-104-106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ015-
017>019.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
115 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA RIDGE KEEPS THE REGION LOCKED IN A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
NEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BUT BEGIN TO SLOW UPON ITS
ARRIVAL. THE FRONT SHOULD LIMP THROUGH BY FRIDAY BUT THEN STALL TO
OUR IMMEDIATE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWS A MUCH LESS DYNAMIC SET-UP IN OUR CWA FROM
YDA AS UPSTREAM 700 AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE 2 TO 4C WARMER AND GONE
IS THE STGR DPVA AND 50-60KT JET STREAK FROM YDA. 12Z WRF-NMMB
KEEPS DECENT FORECAST BULK SHEAR NORTH OF OUR CWA AND FCST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ABOUT 1C/KM LESS THAN YESTERDAY. OVERALL
THINK THAT THE LATEST HR3 AND RAP HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
EVOLUTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THAN THE MORE
CHARGED 00Z HI RES NMM AND ARW DO. NOTWITHSTANDING ABOVE AND I HAVE
BEEN WRONG BEFORE AND WILL BE WRONG AGAIN (MAYBE BY 4 PM OR EVEN
EARLIER), WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CONVECTION FAR NORTH EVOLVES FROM
NWRN PA AS ITS THE CLOSEST TO THE BEST FCST BULK SHEAR. WE
ADJUSTED POP ORIENTATION HIGHEST NNW AND LOWEST SSE IN OUR CWA.
12Z UA ANLYS SUGGESTING NO FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO MAX TEMPS NEEDED.
SURPRISED HOW DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLING TO DROP IN SPITE OF
DRIER AIR AGAIN JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NUDGED THEM UPWARD
AND MAX HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 90S.
THE CURRENT RIDGING IS KEEPING THE AREA DRY THIS MORNING...BUT
THEN THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LINGERING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU...WILL CREATE MORE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS MUCH
AS YESTERDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CHC POPS IN
THE FCST. THE UPPER WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE STORMS WILL HAVE A GREATER FORWARD (ERLY)
MOTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE DAY2 OF OUR LATEST (EXPECTED) HEAT WAVE. DEW
POINT READINGS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT LESS THAN YDAY WITH A MORE
WRLY FLOW ALOFT. WE DO NOT EXPECT THAT THE APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE
GREAT ENOUGH FOR ANY HEAT RELATED HEADLINES TODAY...BUT CARE SHOULD
STILL BE EXERCISED FOR THOSE WHO WILL BE OUTDOORS TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
ANOTHER MILD/HUMID...BUT DRY FCST IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE METRO AREAS AND THE DELMARVA...WHILE
UPPER 60S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NRN NJ. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SHOWERS TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A RATHER ROBUST BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WHILE THE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF OUR REGION
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PLACES US IN A DEEPENING
EAST COAST TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO DEEPEN WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALSO
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF ANY WEST-EAST MOVING SYSTEMS AND EFFECTIVELY
KEEP US UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
BEFORE THE BLOCKING GETS FULLY SETUP WE CONTINUE WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE JET STREAM STILL REMAINS
LOCKED FAR TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONGTERM. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CONTINUED
ONSLAUGHT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SO ORGANIZATION DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE AN ISSUE THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. 850MB TEMPERATURES JUMP CLOSE TO 20C BUT
STILL THINK THAT CLOUD COVER WILL PLAGUE THE REGION EARLIER ON
WEDNESDAY THAN IN DAYS PAST. THERE COULD EVEN BE ON-GOING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO HELP HAMPER HIGHS REACHING
THE MID-90S. PLAYED IT A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE AND WENT LOW-90S
ACROSS THE METRO AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST AS
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP TO WARM THEM A COUPLE MORE DEGREES.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WE START TO SEE THE ZONAL FLOW BREAK DOWN AS A
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE JET AND DRAGS TO INTO THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SETUP
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PUMP IN EVEN MORE MOISTURE. DECENT CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING IMPULSE. THURSDAY IS SETTING UP TO BE AN
ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS PUT
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALLOWING FOR MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS.
THURSDAY COULD ALSO BE THE LAST DAY OF 90+F WE SEE THIS WEEK, BUT
THIS GREATLY DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION.
FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE
COLD FRONT, TIED TO AN ADVANCING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
NEARS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY LEFT OVER FROM THURSDAY TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED INITIATION
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A FEW BREAKS
IN THE OVERALL CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY THAN THURSDAY SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THE
CURRENT HEAT WAVE BY THEN.
THE MID-LEVEL LOW SHOULD RETROGRADE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON FRIDAY SO WE LOSE A BIT OF THE COLD POOL INTERACTION BUT WE ALSO GAIN A
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE. THIS SETUP MAY MIMIC WHAT
OCCURRED LATE LAST WEEK WHERE CONVECTION BEGAN LATE MORNING AND THEN
FORMED INTO A LARGE BLOB OF SLOW MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS CAUSING FLASH
FLOODING. GRANTED THERE IS THE LINEAR LIFTING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
BUT IT REALLY DOES NOT FLY THROUGH THE REGION AND JUST SLOWLY LIMPS
THROUGH.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WE KEEP THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION WITH PRETTY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS MULTIPLE
WAVES RIDE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BE IN A
GOOD SPOT WITH US IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FOR A PROLONGED TIME
PERIOD. PWATS WILL STILL REMAIN VERY LARGE AND THUS WE CONTINUE TO
RUN THE RISK FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE ON THE SEASONAL SIDE FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
18Z TAFS WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA AIRPORTS NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. THEN WE START ALL OVER
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON BEST FORCING AND WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION IS BOTH
FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS AT NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IS LESS TOWARD THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW AT KACY AND KMIV
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OUTSIDE OF THAT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KT. SEA BREEZE FRONT
SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH MOVEMENT OFF THE COAST. WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING IT TO REACH KACY.
THIS EVENING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE OHIO VALLEY
ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE KRDG. WE
SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME OUTFLOW VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KTS.
OVERNIGHT WE CARRIED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LATE AT THE FOGGIER MORE
OUTLYING TERMINALS. THIS MIGHT NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT BASED ON ANY
CONVECTION DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE AIRPORTS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
A VFR MORNING IS FORECAST FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS WITH CU BASED
CLOUDS DEVELOPING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS AGAIN. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OFF
THE COAST AGAIN, MAYBE EVEN MORE SO THAN TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY, SO WE
INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR KPHL AS A START.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...MOSTLY VFR WITH SHORT PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR IN MORNING FOG AND/OR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS AS WELL AS MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP A W/SW
WIND ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FAIR WEATHER WILL RESUME LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE AROUND 2-4 FT AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY.
REMEMBER...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT
THE FORECAST INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MIGHT BRING SCA CRITERIA
BASED ON SWELLS, MORE SO THAN WINDS, TO THE OCEAN WATERS LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW REMAINS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE OFTEN IS TOO
BULLISH UNDER THESE REGIMES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE STAND A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF HAVING THE WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD IN PHILADELPHIA. WE LOOKED BACK AT THE 10 PREVIOUS WETTEST
JUNES ON RECORD AND SAW HOW THE REST OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER
WENT FORWARD. WET BEGETTED(SP) MORE WET. GIVEN HOW WET THE GFS AND
ECMWF LOOK INTO THE START OF JULY THAT NOTION IS HOLDING. BOTH
ENSUING MONTHS AVERAGED WETTER THAN THE CURRENT NORMALS WITH EIGHT
OF THE TEN MONTHS COMBINED AVERAGING WETTER THAN NORMAL. ALL OF
THE MONTHS HAD TWO INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES WENT, JULY AVERAGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CURRENT
NORMAL, WHILE AUGUST WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT NORMAL. SIX OF
THE TEN AUGUSTS WERE AS WARM OR WARMER THAN JULY.
YEAR JULY AVG JULY AUG AVG AUGUST
TEMP PCPN TEMP PCPN
1887 80.7 7.14 74.0 2.31
1906 75.6 5.33 76.2 9.56
1928 77.3 3.60 77.2 5.47
1938 77.3 6.52 78.3 4.10
1962 72.0 2.30 72.0 6.58
1969 75.1 8.33 75.2 2.66
1973 77.9 2.39 78.7 2.03
1975 76.6 6.32 77.0 2.11
2003 78.7 2.01 78.2 3.26
2006 79.4 4.27 78.1 3.93
AVG 77.1 4.82 76.5 4.20
1981-2010 NML 78.1 4.35 76.6 3.50
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...O`HARA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
317 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL TONIGHT IN THE NORTH WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN. BEYOND THAT...AN AIRMASS CHANGE IS PROJECTED FOR LATE
THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A CUTOFF UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER
THE HEARTLAND WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WE DECIDED TO PUT OUR 5 NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A FLASH FLOOD THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO PREVIOUS 3-5 INCH RAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2
INCHES AN HOUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. PWATS
REMAIN IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE...AND PERIODIC STORMS IN AN EAST-WEST
LINE ACROSS N IL IS POSSIBLE.
ADJUSTING OUR 12Z SOUNDING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOWS ML-CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
CIN. VARIOUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FIRE BETWEEN 18-19Z. WATER VAPOR PIX CONFIRM
A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW ACROSS IOWA PROGRESSING EAST-NE. THAT WAVE
SHOULD HELP RAMP UP THE COVERAGE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY PUSH US
INTO SEVERE WEATHER MODE. FREEZING LEVEL AT 14.4K FT MEANS HAIL
WILL NEED INTENSE UPDRAFTS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS /1"+/...BUT WE HAVE
THE CAPE TO ACCOMPLISH THAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WIND SHEAR
WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING...SO
ROTATING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES.
THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING TWO PERIODS OF STORMS POSSIBLE. WE
EXPECT A WAVE OF STORMS THIS EVENING THAT MAY BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS ROLLING INTO OUR AREA FROM IOWA
REACHING KNOX COUNTY AROUND 06Z/1AM. THOSE STORMS MAY BE STILL
AFFECTING OUR COUNTIES SE OF I-70 WED MORNING BEFORE THEY DEPART
INTO INDIANA. WE WENT WITH SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
THEN A BREAK IN THE ACTION MAY DEVELOP THE REST OF WED MORNING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES FOR THE AFTERNOON WAVE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT A LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN PROGRESS
EASTWARD. AN INCREASING LLJ IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THAT WILL INCREASE SHEAR AND
HELICITY PARAMETERS AND RAMP UP THE THREAT OF ROTATING STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES...MAINLY EAST OF I-55. WE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS.
STORMS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN WED EVENING AS THE COMPLEX MOVES
INTO INDIANA. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
DRY...BUT A FEW DAYTIME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AS
THE UPPER WAVE LINGERS ACROSS THE EAST...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY
REACH OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THUR NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. WE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY AS
THAT WAVE PROGRESSES ACROSS IL. PRECIP SHOULD BE SPOTTY...AS
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WE EXPECT TO BE IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD UP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AS
A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
RETROGRADES AND OSCILLATES OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PERIODS OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS WILL PEPPER THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS A RESULT...DUE TO VARIOUS SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
LAPSE RATES MODERATELY HIGH...AND FAVORABLE FOR ANY SUNS HEATING
TO CREATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
TEMPS WILL SETTLE OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SHIMON
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1252 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS LIKE THE HRRR...RUC AND LOCAL WRF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
WEST CENTRAL IL...IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND A
SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL MO...AND IMPACT THE TAF SITES
AROUND 21-23Z.
AM ANTICIPATING A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CONVECTION AS THE
ATMOSPHERE LIKELY STABILIZES...DUE TO RAIN FROM LATER AFTERNOON
STORMS...AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE SHORT RANGE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SCT CONVECTION WILL
REDEVELOP CLOSE TO OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE THIS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM KPIA-KBMI.
AM CONFIDENT THIS WILL IMPACT THESE AREAS...SO WENT WITH A
PREDOMINANT TSRA GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE
WANES WITH SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD EXTENT AS THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON THE PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS.
MILLER
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ILZ027>031.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
545 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
SPEED LOOP OF VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CIRCULATION OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A CU FIELD TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE
TROUGH FROM A LOW IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA.
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURE. EML WAS
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE 15
DEGREE CELSIUS AIR RESIDES.
THE HRRR AND WRF SHOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF
I-70 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. HAVE ONLY ABOUT A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS SO COULD SEE A SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
TONIGHT WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. A COLD
FRONT IN THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID DAY
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 70S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER TO NEAR 100 IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES IN THE 98 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
THE LLVL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WARMER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A STRONG 850MB THERMAL
AXIS WILL PUSH WARMER TEMPS NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE HIGHS IN THE 100-103 RANGE SHOULD BE COMMON
AS MIXING ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON DEEPENS SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY RAISE TEMPS...BUT AT THE SAME TIME...LOWER
DEWPOINTS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. HEAT INDICES THURSDAY
WILL COMMONLY BE IN THE 100-105 RANGE. A SUBSTANTIAL EML WILL BE IN
PLACE TO THE START THE AFTERNOON...BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...IT WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AND WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT
WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG...AN AREA OF HIGH CAPE VALUES AND
INCREASING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH 6KM WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY AND
EVENING. WOULD EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF ANY LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH HAIL IS POSSIBLE...A DEEP LAYER OF
NEARLY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES COULD MAKE STRONG WINDS GUSTS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOPS. MODELS SEEM A
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES.
IT SHOULD ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A GRADUAL DECLINE IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DEWPOINTS WILL COMMONLY
BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH IT
WILL STILL BE THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S MOST AREAS FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE
80S WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA AND
THE LACK OF ANY CONSISTENT FORCING MECHANISM TO DEVELOP PRECIP
WARRANTS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST DRY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
LAPS ANALYSIS AND RAP PROGS SHOW THE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER THERE HAS
NOT BEEN MUCH DEVELOPMENT AT ALL OF A CU FIELD IN CENTRAL KS. SO
THINK THE INHIBITION TO CONVECTION IS HOLDING AND THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN A VFR FORECAST WITHOUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT CAUSING SFC
WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
SPEED LOOP OF VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CIRCULATION OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A CU FIELD TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE
TROUGH FROM A LOW IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA.
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS. DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURE. EML WAS
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE 15
DEGREE CELSIUS AIR RESIDES.
THE HRRR AND WRF SHOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF
I-70 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. HAVE ONLY ABOUT A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR
40 KTS SO COULD SEE A SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
TONIGHT WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. A COLD
FRONT IN THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID DAY
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 70S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER TO NEAR 100 IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES IN THE 98 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
THE LLVL FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WARMER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A STRONG 850MB THERMAL
AXIS WILL PUSH WARMER TEMPS NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE HIGHS IN THE 100-103 RANGE SHOULD BE COMMON
AS MIXING ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON DEEPENS SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY RAISE TEMPS...BUT AT THE SAME TIME...LOWER
DEWPOINTS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. HEAT INDICES THURSDAY
WILL COMMONLY BE IN THE 100-105 RANGE. A SUBSTANTIAL EML WILL BE IN
PLACE TO THE START THE AFTERNOON...BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...IT WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AND WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT
WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG...AN AREA OF HIGH CAPE VALUES AND
INCREASING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH 6KM WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY AND
EVENING. WOULD EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF ANY LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH HAIL IS POSSIBLE...A DEEP LAYER OF
NEARLY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES COULD MAKE STRONG WINDS GUSTS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOPS. MODELS SEEM A
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES.
IT SHOULD ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF A GRADUAL DECLINE IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DEWPOINTS WILL COMMONLY
BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH IT
WILL STILL BE THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S MOST AREAS FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE
80S WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA AND
THE LACK OF ANY CONSISTENT FORCING MECHANISM TO DEVELOP PRECIP
WARRANTS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST DRY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 18 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
30 KTS THROUGH 02Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS IN THE 11Z-14Z TIME
FRAME WEDNESDAY. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z
BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD VCTS ATTM.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
326 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE AREA AND FARTHER NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH WOULD LIKELY MOVE
EASTWARD...BUT COULD BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FAR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
EVENING ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE UP TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WINDS...BUT THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE LATEST HRRR AND 12Z WRF RUNS INDICATE THAT AN MCS MAY BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BY 12Z. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...SO THIS GENERAL
SYSTEM MOVEMENT IS LIKELY. THE MODELS GENERALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE WEAKER FLOW OVER OUR AREA. IT IS NOT CERTAIN
WHETHER THE ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL REACH THE AREA...BUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL AT LEAST GET VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA.
TWO THINGS TO CONSIDER HERE ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE OLD COLD POOL
TO SURGE INTO THE AREA...MUDDLING UP THE OTHERWISE HOT...HUMID AND
BREEZY DAY THAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
OUTFLOW TO FOCUS NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR JUST RE-INTENSIFY
OVER OUR AREA DURING THE DAY.
THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED INCREASING SHEAR THROUGH
THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND DEVELOPED RATHER EXTREME
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF ANY OUTFLOWS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING TO
POSE MORE THAN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...NO MATTER THE MEANS
OF GENERATION...STORMS LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING WILL LIKELY POSE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
THE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ANY RIGHT MOVING
STORMS MAY MOVE DUE SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST.
IN THE ABSENCE OF A MAJOR COLD POOL INVASION EARLY WEDNESDAY...A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND POSSIBLY A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NOT ISSUE EITHER AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE FORECAST. PRESUMABLY IT
WILL BE A CLEARER DECISION FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ON THE MILD SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHT...AND EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN NO SIGN OF SIGNIFICANT DRY
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE A
REAL PAIN. TRIED TO KEEP IT HOT IN THE WEST AND COOL IT DOWN A BIT
IN THE EAST CLOSER TO ANY ALL DAY OUTFLOW/CONVECTION POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD ESSENTIALLY STARTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE APPROACH OF THE WESTERN
U.S. RIDGE. THE WFO PAH AREA IS POISED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE EMBEDDED IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA ARE ON THE WEST EDGE
OF THE FOCUSED LIFT/STRETCHING OF PARCELS...SO KEPT A SMALL MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE /SREF/
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY INTERACTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
/MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY/ TANGENTIAL TO THE
FASTER NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ADJACENT TO THE BOUNDARY.
FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FLOW IS
NORTHWEST...THERE IS SOME DIFFERENTIAL SPEED SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH
MEAGER LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME...NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION...SO POPS/WEATHER ARE A
LITTLE LOWER THAN SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES AT THIS TIME.
THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE TAKES THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GREAT LAKES LOW
AND ROTATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. WITH THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE...THERE IS SOME
SUPPORT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION BY NEXT SUNDAY. FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS THE LOW SHARPENS OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA...INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN LIMB OF
THE SHARPENING TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THERE WOULD BE A SLIGHT TEMPORAL
SHIFT WESTWARD AS IMPULSES WORK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...THERE WILL BE SOME VARIANCE AS THE THE SOUTHERN
LIMIT OF THE ANTECEDENT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY OVER THE
WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...LEANED TOWARD THE SREF
SOLUTION. THIS WILL PLACE A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT INTO THE UPPER
90S...WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BEYOND THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FALLING
BACK INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
KEPT THE 18Z TAFS REAL SIMPLE. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY TS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS ISOLATED COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS. NICE CU FIELD AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
INTO THE TEENS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT.
AS STATED IN THE UPDATE SECTION THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
CONVECTION TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN THE
TIMING...LOCATION AND DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF ANY SUCH COMPLEX TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
NICE CU FIELD AND GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TS POTENTIAL WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
SO...MENTIONED PROB30 FOR VFR TS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
245 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY SET UP ROUGHLY
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500-3000
J/KG...SHEAR CONTINUES TO REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST. THIS HAS LEAD
TO VERY DISORGANIZED STORMS THUS FAR.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A
BIT MORE ORGANIZATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE HRRR AND
4KM NAM SUGGEST THAT A MCS WILL DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE ALONG THIS
SLOWLY SINKING BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE...CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA BY 8PM. NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON MCS DEVELOPMENT BUT...SINCE THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BREAK DOWN IN THE RIDGE AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...BELIEVE THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST HELP SOME STORMS
REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS. FOR NOW...CONTINUED THE SCATTERED
COVERAGE WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
UPSTREAM TRENDS.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BRIEF NORTHWESTERLY WIND COMPONENT
AT MID LEVELS COULD POSSIBLY HELP SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES WAS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG AGREEMENT AMONGST NCEP CHAIN ON A MODEST MID LVL WAVE
CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED NGT INTO THUR. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED TO RAISE POPS FURTHER INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. TIME OF
DAY DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER...SO PRESENT THINKING
IS WE EXPERIENCE A WELCOME RAIN WITH SCATTERED SUB-SEVERE STORMS.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH IMPULSES CROSSING EVERY 18 TO 24 HOURS DOES
NOT LEND ITSELF MUCH TIME FOR INSERTION OF DRY WEATHER. CONTINUED
WITH CHANCE POPS THE BALANCE OF SHORT TERM AS INHERITED DATASET
PRESENTLY ILLUSTRATES.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE FRIDAY FOR A SEVERE
THREAT DESPITE A STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. SBCAPES PUSH 2.0
KJKG-1 W OF I-77 ALONG WITH BETTER BL EQUIV POT TEMP ADV...BUT MID
LVL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL /AROUND 5CKM-1 OR LESS/.
AS H5 CYCLONE COILS UP ACRS EASTERN CANADA...ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
INTERSECTION OF INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL COINCIDE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF H7-H3 DCVA SUPPORTING RW/TRW DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO LAKE
ERIE. A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES SAT NGT BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIES IT.
DUE TO STAGNANT PATTERN LEANED HEAVILY ON BIAS CORRECTED MOSGUIDE
GRIDS FOR TEMPS WHICH HAVE PREFORMED WELL RECENTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SERIES OF SHRTWVS WL CONT TO DROP SE ACRS THE GT LKS RGN THRU
MOST OF THE PD. THIS WL SPPRT SHWR/TSTM CHCS AT LEAST THRU SAT.
MOISTURE MORE IN QUESTION BY SUN SO ONLY MENTIONED SLGT CHC POPS
THEN. OTRW...WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS ATTM DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES IN INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS. EXP TEMPS NR OR A SLGTLY ABV
SEASONAL AVGS UNTIL HIGH PRES BLDS IN LT IN THE PD WITH SLGTLY BLO
AVG READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS CURRENTLY. BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AS THE HEATING
CONTINUES. DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
OVERNIGHT MCS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA. PTCHY MVFR IN BR IS PSBL FOR MANY TAF SITES
DURING THE SUNRISE HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR IS EXPD MUCH OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WL BRING DAILY CHCS OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THE HIGHEST CHC BEING
THU/THU NGT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
431 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A
TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW AND A RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
MANITOBA. THE MAIN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN
MONTANA INTO WRN SD. AT THE SFC...A WEAK RIDGE AND LIGHT PRES
GRADIENT PREVAILED OVER THE THE REGION ALLOWING PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. CAPPING HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION THROUGH 20Z DESPITE LOW LEVEL CONV...INLAND MLCAPE VALUES
TO NEAR 1500 J/KG AND CU/TCU LINE DEVELOPMENT. MIXING HAS ALSO BEEN
STRONG ENOUGH TO DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE WI
BORDER
TONIGHT...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY PCPN CHANCES WILL ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM
DROPPING MUCH BELOW 60F. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.
WED...THE NRN PLAINS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WRN LAKES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. THE
MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE HIGHER PCPN
CHANCES INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS OVER REGION SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S INLAND AND BEFORE LAKE BREEZES TAKE OVER. MLCAPE VALUES MAY
AGAIN CLIMB TO AROUND 1500 J/KG BUT RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR VALUES
WILL LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
OVERALL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO AN AMPLIFIED ONE FOR LATE JUNE
STANDARDS DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH INTENSE UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS TIMING OF A BETTER PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT ALL AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL BETWEEN THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...MORE OF THAT TIME WILL
BE DRY RATHER THAN RAINY.
WHILE SCATTERED POPS SEEM THE WAY TO GO FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WILL
GO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS DURING THE WED NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO CARVE OUT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WILL ALSO GO ON THE HIGHER END OF CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A SCATTERING
OF POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS SEEMS REASONABLE.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXPECTED...THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MORE IN THE ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES.
UPPER TOUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. RADIATAIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AT SAW/IWD DROPPING VSBY INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
348 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
SEVERAL THINGS TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT. FIRST...STORMS
DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF MCV THAT IS SLIDING EAST
THROUGH MO FROM MCS THAT WAS OVER WESTERN MO THIS MORNING...AS
WELL AS VARIOUS OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST MO/WEST CENTRAL IL AS MCV SLIDES
EAST. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEXT MCS DEVELOPING OVER IOWA.
FORECAST CORFIDI VECTORS HAVE THIS MCS SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
FORECAST AREA...MAYBE EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY. SO SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. LATEST HRRR RUN IS EVEN
FURTHER WEST WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN IOWA...SO HAVE
RAISED POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AS FOR TEMPS...TO REMAIN RATHER MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.
BYRD
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
COMPLEX SCENARIO ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS. THE MAIN COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE
OVERNIGHT MCS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN IL AND PORTIONS OF ERN MO
AND WHERE IT WILL BE LOCATED AT DAYBREAK. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE THE DECAYING MCS IN CENTERED THRU IL AT DAYBREAK WITH
THE TRAILING FLANK OR BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE MS RIVER IN ERN MO.
THE VEERED NATURE OF THE TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND WLY LLJ WOULD
SUGGEST THIS SYTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD IN A DECAYING STATE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS ON THE TRAILING
BOUNDARY. STRONG HEATING SHOULD COMMENCE DURING THE DAY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS WEST
OR SOUTHWEST OF ANY REMANANT BOUNDARIES. THE HEATING WILL BE MORE
LIMITED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DUE TO RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS FROM THE
MORNING...BUT THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
AND WEAKLY CAPPED WITH SBCAPE AOA 4000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE CONFLUENT ZONE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...PRIMARILY
FROM EAST CENTRAL/SE MO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SW IL. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR
SUPERCELL AND MULTICELL MODES. THE MORNING CONVECTION AND/OR
RESIDUAL CLOUDS PRESENT SOME PROBLEMS WITH RESPECT TO THE
MAGNITUDE OF HEAT. I HAVE COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM ST LOUIS
EASTWARD AND THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON MORNING CLOUDS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES I HAVE DEFERED ON ANY HEAT ADVISORIES WITH HEAT
INDICES FORECAST IN THE 100-105 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
EXITING THE CWA OR WILL HAVE EXITED THE CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY...THURSDAY LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT DAY. INFACT...IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF
THE QUESTION IT COULD BE HOTTER THAN WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LESSER
HUMIDITY. THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A PROMINENT WSW LLJ AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD FUEL
ANOTHER MCS WHICH WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE MCS TRACK WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY ATTM
APPEARING TO BE THROUGH CENTRAL MO. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE EXTENDED RANGES.
THE EXTENDED RANGES WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFIED BLOCKY UPPER AIR REGIME
FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC...WITH A
STRONG UPPER HIGH/RIDGE CENTERED IN THE WRN U.S. AND DEEP TROF IN
THE ERN U.S. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DROP SSEWD DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF AND IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY
REINFORCING THE "COOLER" AIR AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
ONCE AGAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
OVER KUIN AND METRO AREA TAFS. TIMING AND COVERAGE STILL HARD TO
PIN DOWN...SO JUST HAVE VCTS MENTION FOR NOW. WILL UPDATE AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
WINDS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN MCS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...SLIDING
SOUTHEAST...PROBABLY SKIRTING KUIN. SO KEPT PROB30 MENTION FOR
KUIN FROM 08Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. MAIN COLD FRONT TO SLIDE THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS TO VEER TO THE WEST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE OVER METRO AREA AHEAD OF FRONT.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...ONCE AGAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER KUIN AND METRO AREA TAFS. TIMING AND
COVERAGE STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN...SO JUST HAVE VCTS MENTION FOR
NOW. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH BY 01Z WEDNESDAY.
MAIN COLD FRONT TO SLIDE THROUGH BY 17Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS TO VEER TO
THE WEST...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE OVER METRO AREA WITH FRONT.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2013
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
Thunderstorm activity across eastern Kansas has persisted into the
late morning hours, casting showers and cloud cover off to the
northeast across our forecast area. While the intensity of the
storms has come down over the past couple of hours, they also
continue to regenerate on the back edge of the line; which appears
due to strong moisture transport across central and eastern Kansas.
Short range models other than the RUC are not picking up on this
continued development at this time. Focusing on moisture transport,
thoughts are that storms could keep redeveloping in eastern Kansas
through noon, after which they should decay through the early
afternoon as the focus for the transport moves north into eastern
Nebraska and Iowa. Cast of showers and isolated embedded
thunderstorms are all that is expected from this morning activity.
Otherwise, looking at temperatures, have shaved a degree or two off
the going highs for today as the cloud cover has been very
persistent, but with some potential for the sun to come out by the
early to mid-afternoon hours, thoughts are it will get hot and steamy
fast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
Challenge for today continues to be chances of precipitation through
this afternoon as a nocturnal MCS propagates across central Kansas
this morning. The 00Z sounding from KTOP showed ample dry layer such
that severe winds were reported with very little convection or rain
associated. Upstream of that a short wave trough and low level
jet...along with around 8 deg K/KM mid level lapse rates supported
upscale growth of an MCS that is producing severe winds as well. This
will be the area to monitor as it moves eastward towards the CWA. At
this time the storm appears to be splitting with a southern area
taking on a more discrete...almost super cellular mode. Given the
0-6km shear in EAX CWA of around 40kts...will have to monitor this
activity closely for potential severe threat. The HRRR favors
maintaining the area although weakening somewhat after sunrise. The
surface winds ahead of this area are decent enough to believe that
the boundary layer is well mixed even if the convection itself is
elevated. The 500 mb flow will still be at least slightly cyclonic
and with the low level moisture and associated CAPE values around
2000 J/KG along with weak short wave ripples in the flow...therefore
a chance of convection will last through the day today. As the
thermal ridge builds into the area though...the chances for
precipitation will decrease with the increased heating of the column
late this evening through the remainder of the short term. All models
show the upper ridge significantly amplifying over the western half
of the US by tomorrow afternoon...so as the nose of the thermal ridge
edges into the area...we will have heat indices in the 103F to 106F
range on Wednesday. Will not issue a headline at this time because if there is
another MCS overnight...some debris cloudiness could limit the
temperatures/heat indices.
As the ridge amplifies to the west the flow will eventually turn more
northwesterly so we will begin to see slight relief by Thursday.
Given this flow and cap in place...precipitation chances decrease as
well during Thursday. The exception is a possible MCS that may from
over eastern Iowa and clip the northeast corner.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
Northwest flow will prevail through this period as a the
ridge/trough pattern amplifies across the CONUS. A weak front should
have moved through the area by Friday morning with scattered
convection lingering into the day. But the bigger effect of the
front will be to cool dewpoints down into the lower 60s or even the
50s. As we see a great influence from the eastern trough,
temperatures aloft cool down and thickness values decrease
substantially. So will also see a nice cool down in the surface
temperatures by Saturday into the first half of next week,
temperatures look to very close to normal, with highs in the lower
to middle 80s. And when combined with the much more comfortable
dewpoints, it looks like we`ll see couple days of pleasant summer
weather.
With regards to precipitation chances, northwest flow is notoriously
tricky for timing and placing precipitation chances. At this time,
there isn`t a great signal to say that any certain period of time
has a greater chance of precipitation than any other period of time.
So instead of carrying some mention of precipitation through the
bulk of the extended range, have trimmed POPs out until there is a
better signal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals over the next
24 hours. What storms persist in the vicinity of the terminals this
afternoon are expected to stay in the VFR category. Some potential
for more storms to develop later, but confidence is not there to
include in the TAF at this time. Otherwise, as the clouds slowly
clear this afternoon surface winds will become rather gusty, with
sustained speeds from the south above 12 knots, gusting above 25
knots, into the evening. Otherwise, look for winds to veer to the
west overnight along with a decrease in speed.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cutter
SHORT TERM...Adolphson
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...Cutter
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
255 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday...Southwest flow aloft continues to bring
moisture and instability to the area. Convective activity is slow
to develop this afternoon but a large plume of moisture is now
moving into western Montana with scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing. RUC analysis continues to show
precipitation developing over the area this evening and
development will be aided by a jet streak moving across the area.
Have painted low pops across the county warning area until
midnight. Any thunderstorms that develop will likely be high based
with gusty winds being the main threat. Convective activity should
generally end by midnight. Heights begin to rise Wednesday though
isolated showers are possible in a swath across central Montana
Wednesday morning due to the proximity of the jet streak. Heights
continue to rise Wednesday afternoon through Thursday resulting
in dry and warmer conditions. The strong westerly flow aloft
Wednesday, combined with warmer temperatures, will allow the
atmosphere to effectively mix down and gusty winds will result
during the afternoon. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages
Wednesday but will warm through the remainder of the week. Emanuel
Thursday night through Tuesday...Medium range models remain in
good agreement for the first few days of the forecast period. An
upper level ridge over the western U.S. will strengthen over the
northern Rockies for much warmer temperatures for Friday and
Saturday. Model solutions diverge Saturday night as the GFS bring
shortwave energy and an upper level jet through the northern
Rockies for a slight chance of thunderstorms while the ECMWF keeps
a dry and stable airmass in place. The upper wave depicted in the
GFS will continue to affect central Montana through Sunday evening
but the models come back into agreement by Monday as the ridge
axis regresses into the Pacific northwest and puts Montana under a
north to northwest flow aloft with unsettled but continued warm
conditions into Tuesday. mpj
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 1757Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. SCT low clouds
viewed on satellite imagery and web cams at all terminals Tuesday
afternoon. Strong southwest wind gusts up to 30kts will continue
through evening. Winds will weaken overnight but then strengthen
again Wednesday morning. A weak shortwave trough will bring
scattered showers to southwest MT through 03Z this evening so have
added VCSH to KBZN/KHLN. A weak frontal boundary moves through
western MT early Wednesday around 26/15Z with low confidence for
additional rainshowers near KGTF/KHLN/KLWT. Therefore, cigs are
retained through the period but excluded Wednesday morning rain
showers from the TAFS pending later guidance. Nutter
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 52 77 53 82 / 20 20 10 0
CTB 49 74 49 79 / 20 10 10 0
HLN 53 77 53 83 / 20 10 10 0
BZN 50 80 48 86 / 20 10 10 0
WEY 40 72 39 80 / 20 20 10 0
DLN 48 77 48 84 / 30 10 10 0
HVR 54 81 54 84 / 20 10 10 0
LWT 50 76 50 80 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/greatfalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
158 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS FROM 60 TO THE LOW 70S. LATEST RADAR IS
VOID OF ECHOS OVER WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 2 PM CDT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUILDING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN
PLACE FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
17-18Z RAP SOUNDINGS WEAKEN/ERASE THE CAP BETWEEN 20-22Z ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS. TRIGGER WILL BE A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV PUSHING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA NOW...HELPING TO WEAKEN THE STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY IN PLACE. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN PUSH
EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND
SFC TROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN PLAY WITH THE VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT...CURRENTLY 3-6K J/KG. LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE RATHER WEAK 0-6KM/EFFECTIVE SHEAR UP TO AROUND 20KTS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. STILL...WITH
THE AMOUNT OF CAPE PRESENT THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF LARGE
SEVERE HAIL AND A DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL BE WATER
LOADED SO WILL LIKELY NEED A RATHER ROBUST/TALL UPDRAFT TO GET THE
LARGE HAIL. IT DOES APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ELEVATING THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS FORCING PUSHES EASTWARD.
OPTED TO KEEP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DRY FOR NOW ALONG WITH THE 12Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF. THE 06Z AND 12Z NAM BOTH PAINTED LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN QPF...SO WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK WITH ATTENTION
FOCUSED ON THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE INTENSIFYING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US/CANADA AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...IN THE 80S TO CONTINUE...KEEPING THE AREA OUT THE
WARMEST H850 TEMPERATURES THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AS A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME UNCERTAINTY IS
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST AS THE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONGST THE 12Z LONG RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
THAT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
ALLBLEND SOLUTION AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE IS NO TARGET OF
OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
AREAS OF MVFR CU/STRATUS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL ND.
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP OF +TSRA FOR KMOT
FROM 21-24 UTC GIVEN GOOD CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL. WILL UPDATE OTHER TERMINAL
FORECASTS AS NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED. ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS AROUND ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATCH AREA. RAINFALL RATES WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL EASILY
SURPASS THIS THRESHOLD...AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR
FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-034-042-045.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...NH
LONG TERM...LTH
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
101 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND
ARE TRYING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. STILL THINKING THAT THESE SHOULD
SCATTER AND WILL STICK WITH FORECASTED MAX TEMPS. DID INCREASE SKY
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THREAT...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA SHOULD LEAD TO A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING. HRRR AND 4KM-WRF MODELS INDICATING THAT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HEAVY RAIN THREAT...VERY SLOW STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PWATS AOA
1.5 INCHES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THE STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE STORMS
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA (CONSIDERING TIMING WILL BE
NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET). INCOMING HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP SLOW MOVING
STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
AREA BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT BECOMES MORE OF A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE OF
HEAVY RAIN NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
OVERALL...AND PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS/WRF FOR THE EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR ALL AREAS AS A
SHORTWAVE AND SFC BOUNDARY MOVE INTO CENTRAL ND. THERE SHOULD BE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY AND WARM THROUGH 00Z WED.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN ALL
AREAS AROUND 06Z...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SFC BOUNDARY.
THERE IS NOT A STRONG OR FOCUSED LOW LEVEL JET THOUGH...SO THIS
COULD PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED MCS FROM FORMING. IN
ADDITION...DEEP LAYERED SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK...ONLY AROUND
15KT. INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE CURRENT THINKING IS A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 06Z THEN INTO THE EAST
THEREAFTER. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT.
CAN/T RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE WEST THIS
EVENING...WITH HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN THREATS. THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WHERE STORMS DEVELOP...SO THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED. FOR NOW WON/T ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT
THIS IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER AS WE HEAD THROUGH TODAY. WE WILL
MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS/HWO IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE
INTO OUR MN COUNTIES. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A SLOWER
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THOUGH...SO THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION
ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
INSTABILITY REMAINING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
FOR WED NIGHT...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY IN
THE NORTHEAST BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AFTER 06Z THU.
ON THURSDAY...THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH INCREASING NW WINDS
BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BECOME BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY IN MOST
AREAS WITH ABOUT 30KT TO MIX AND ADIABATIC SOUNDINGS TO 750MB. BY
AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW...SO WILL MENTION A LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS HERE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MILD MID LEVEL TEMPS.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
REMAIN. EXPECT A FAIRLY STABLE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/DGEX ALL SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH PARKED OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEAK
SHORT-WAVES IN THIS FLOW IS DIFFICULT...SO WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND
20 POPS FOR MOST PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SERN ND INTO WCNTRL MN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCATTERED TO BKN IN THE MID AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THESE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN ND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AND
CROSS THE RRV INTIO NWRN MN IN THE LATE EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON HAS CRESTED AND THE RIVER LEVEL HAS
RECEDED BACK TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE SHEYENNE AT HARWOOD WILL
EASE BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES AT FARGO...SABIN... DILWORTH AND WEST FARGO. SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WHICH COULD IMPACT
RIVER STAGES IF IT FALLS OVER ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS IN THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/ROGERS
AVIATION...GUST
HYDROLOGY...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
152 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FIELD LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST IN CENTRAL
OHIO SOUTH OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SO IT APPEARS THAT COULD BE
THE AREA WHERE INITIAL STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HRRR AND RAP HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LINE...ROUGHLY NEAR
THE I-71 CORRIDOR...BY MID AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE BUMPED UP
HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CONVECTION AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ILN CWA TONIGHT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO FAVOR
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH LLJ FORCING SETTING UP TO
THE WEST. THOUGH A FEW CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW UPSTREAM
CONVECTION COMING INTO THE CWA (WHICH DOES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
LINGERING INSTABILITY)...POPS WILL BE KEPT SOMEWHAT LOW DURING THE
DIURNAL MIN (30 NW / 20 SE).
ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE ILN CWA WILL
INCREASE...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS TO RAMP UP JUST WEST OF
THE CWA. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF THE ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW (WHICH WILL NOT LIKELY CROSS THE CWA
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING). THE OVERALL MODEL TREND SEEMS TO ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHTLY QUICKER PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE (WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT) THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
WITH THIS FORECAST INCORPORATING THE PRESENCE (FINALLY) OF SOME
WELL-DEFINED FORCING...AND EXPECTED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
(1500-2000 J/KG...PERHAPS UP TO 3000 J/KG IF UNINHIBITED BY CLOUDS
OR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY)...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE INCREASING DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM...AS WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH A STRENGTHENING
BAND OF LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO CREATE A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. TOUGH TO RULE OUT
ANY PARTICULAR TYPES OR MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AS
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A BIT MORE THAN JUST
THE RUN-OF-THE-MILL STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE HWO WORDING WILL BE REFINED A BIT FOR THIS
THREAT...WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SEEING SOME HYDRO PARAMETERS LIGHT UP A BIT AS WELL (PWAT
WELL OVER 1.50" AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE). THOUGH STORM ELEMENTS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE...SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE ILN CWA THURSDAY...THOUGH THE
FORCING AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROUGH WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF THE
CWA. COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY...SO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN EXIST THURSDAY (HIGHEST IN THE EASTERN
CWA). IN THE WNW FLOW...PROBABLY NOT SAFE TO RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY...THOUGH NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR ORGANIZATION ARE
PRESENT.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DROP SLIGHTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY MORNING. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS AROUND 90 (A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FORECAST GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION)...AND DEWPOINTS GETTING TO
AROUND 70 OR EVEN THE LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES WEDNESDAY SHOULD
MAKE IT TO THE MID 90S...SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
CARVE OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SEASONABLE
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
MODELS ARE SHOWING VARIOUS WEAK SHORT WAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE TROUGH BUT IT IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT ANY KIND OF TIMING. AS A
RESULT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE AND GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR...THINK THE BEST WAY TO GO IS TO TREND THE POPS DIURNAL
BUT KEEP THEM ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1750Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN
SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
HOWEVER WITH COVERAGE APPEARING SOMEWHAT SCATTERED...HAVE LEFT A
VCTS IN THE TAFS SINCE THERE IS NO DEFINITIVE TIMING. DELAYED THE
START OF THE VCTS AT THE CINCINNATI SITES SINCE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD...AND THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
MOST OF THE STORMS COULD BE TO THE EAST. IF A STORM DIRECTLY
AFFECTS A TERMINAL...THEN BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. THERE ARE NOW SEVERAL MODELS
SUGGESTING A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS TIED TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY ENTER THE AREA AS A LINE OR CLUSTERS OF
STORMS IN THE 04-08Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...JUST ADDED A VCTS AT THIS TIME. AFTERWARD THERE IS A
LOW ENOUGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO KEEP THE TAFS DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING NEAR 20KT BY
MIDDAY. IN THE KCVG EXTENDED TAF...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
203 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A wet pattern continues across the Inland Northwest through mid week,
with occasional showers and the potential for thunderstorms. The
latter half of the week, into early next week, will be dramatically
different. Expect a quick warming, drying trend with temperatures
moving to above normal, summer like values.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: The upper level shortwave that moved through the Columbia
Basin early today is now pivoting across the ID Panhandle and into
the Northeast Mountains. This disturbance is expected to push
north of the region by the evening hours; however, there is
another weaker disturbance set to move in behind this wave for
late this afternoon into the late evening hours. Models show some
weak upper level instability ahead of this next wave. The best
instability looks to be from the Northeast Mountains to the
Central Panhandle Mountains and points southeastward, as well as
northwest of a line from Moses Lake to Sandpoint. These are the
two areas that HRRR focuses showers for this evening into the
early portions of tonight. There does not appear to be enough
instability for thunderstorms once we lose our surface heating,
but we should continue to see isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across much of the Panhandle into the early evening hours
(especially from the Northeast Blue Mountains into the Central
Panhandle Mountains). These thunderstorms will be capable of heavy
rain possibly mixed in with some small hail and gusty outflow
winds. We will also see a little bit of clearing behind this next
wave with a narrow dry slot showing up on the water vapor
satellite imagery. With dew point temps remaining in the low 50s,
it will not take much cooling for fog to redevelop in the valleys
of extreme eastern WA and the ID Panhandle late tonight into early
Wednesday morning, especially across the mountain valleys. /SVH
Wednesday through Friday night: Expect lingering shower chances,
especially in the afternoon and early evening hours, before a
ridge of high pressure begins to build over the West by the end of
the work week. Between Wednesday and Thursday evening the jet
stream bisecting the Inland Northwest slowly migrates north.
Impulses/vorticity maxima littering the west-southwest flow ride
through on this jet, keeping the shower chances alive.
The precise timing and track of individual impulses is not agreed
upon, decreasing confidence in what areas have the overall best
chance of showers. On Wednesday loose model agreement places the
highest concentration around the mountains, though all areas will
have at least slight chances through the evening. Coverage
decreases through Wednesday evening and the overnight, with the
main chances retreating to the Cascades and eastern mountains. By
Thursday afternoon the threat of showers increases again. However
with the jet starting to lift north through this period the
overall threat will be less as compared to Wednesday. The threat
of thunderstorms is not all that great given depicted convective
instability. But a few cannot be ruled out across the northern-tier,
largely north of Highway 2, as well a across the Blue Mountains
through central Panhandle Mountains during the afternoon/early
evening hours.
By Thursday night into Friday night the ridge begins to amplify
over the region from the south to southeast and the jet axis lifts
north through B.C., leading to an overall drying trend. A few
models still keep a slight risk of showers going near the Cascades
and near the Canadian border, as well as closer to the Blue Mountains,
for Friday afternoon but the overall risk is too small at this
time to put a mention in the official forecast. This should also
be the beginning of the more pronounced warming trend. Regional
850mb temperatures warm into the upper teens to lower 20s. This
supports highs about 10 degrees above normal. /J. Cote`
Saturday through Tuesday: This period will be hot and dry. The region
will under a ridging pattern from the high pressure located in the
Southwest US. The strength of the ridge will keep a Low off the NW
Pacific Coast from coming onshore. Temperatures in the region are
expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Most places will see
the high temperatures into 80s to 90s with a few places possibly
reaching 100. On Saturday, the mid level moisture mixed with the
high temperatures could produce an isolated thunderstorm in the
high elevations of the mountains. As drier conditions continue
through the weekend, the chances for these storms diminishes. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A potent compact shortwave trough of low pressure is moving
to the north and east across the basin late this morning. This
shortwave has produced a line of heavy rain showers with embedded
thunderstorms from KPUW into the northern portions of the Upper
Columbia Basin. This convective line will move into the
Spokane/Coeur d`Alene Areas between 11:30 AM and 2:00 PM today.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, gusty outflow winds
and heavy rain is expected with these storms. The heavy rain will
likely drop cigs and vis into MVFR/IFR category for a period of 30
minutes to an hour. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be
possible behind this convective line through the early evening
hours with the best chances of additional thunderstorms expected
at the KLWS and KPUW taf sites. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 51 71 54 78 57 87 / 40 40 20 20 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 51 70 53 78 54 86 / 30 40 30 20 0 0
Pullman 52 72 52 79 54 85 / 80 40 30 10 0 0
Lewiston 57 80 59 88 61 93 / 80 40 20 10 0 0
Colville 51 73 51 82 52 90 / 60 40 20 20 10 0
Sandpoint 50 69 50 77 50 87 / 60 50 20 20 10 0
Kellogg 49 67 51 76 55 90 / 60 50 30 20 0 0
Moses Lake 55 77 58 86 60 90 / 40 20 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 55 76 60 83 63 88 / 50 20 10 10 0 0
Omak 51 74 54 82 57 89 / 70 30 20 20 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION UNDERWAY WITH -11 LI/S
INTO SW CWA. CORRIDOR OF HIGH ML CAPE VALUES ALSO LOCATED THERE AS
WELL...WITH VALUES AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG. SPC MONITORING FOR A WATCH
WITH BORDERLINE 30-35 KNOT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. WATER VAPOR/RUC
SHOWING A WEAK RIPPLE ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA...MAY BE ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE THE ALREADY DEVELOPING CONVECTION NEAR KDBQ. AIR MASS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. 3 HOUR ML CAPE CHANGE
AROUND 1500 J/KG INTO THE SW CWA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ALSO MAXIMIZED IN A CORRIDOR FROM NRN IL INTO SW WI.
SUPERCELL COMPOSITE MAXIMIZED SOUTH OF MADISON...THOUGH DRIVEN
LARGELY BY THE VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES. LATEST HRRR BLOWS UP THIS AREA
IN SW WI AND SPREADS IT ACROSS CWA THROUGH 01Z. LATER IN THE NIGHT
LOW LEVEL JET NOSE DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND HRRR
BLOSSOMS THINGS ACROSS IOWA AND THIS WOULD THEN HEAD
SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY GRAZING FAR SRN WI. SURFACE FLOW IS ADVECTING
70 PLUS DEW POINT AIR INTO SRN WI. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A VORT MAX INTO IOWA AND TO JUST SOUTH OF WI BY 12Z.
VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE BRINGS BEST FORCING TO SW CWA
AROUND 6Z AND SPREADS IT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 6-12Z.
AT THIS POINT TEND TO SIDE WITH THE MODELS SHOWING TSRA AFFECTING
THE CWA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE SW 1/2...WITHIN AND NEAR THE
LI/CAPE GRADIENTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER FEATURE.
THE NAM AND SOME OF THE OTHER MESO MODELS SHOW NEXT TO NOTHING WHICH
IS A CONCERN IF THE 850 LEANS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL RETAIN THE
HEFTY POPS WE HAVE GOING AND HANG ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MILLIBAR WAVE SHIFTS EAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND
PER SWODY1 THE REAL FOCUS FOR THE HEFTY ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO OH
VALLEY. PROGS SHOW BEST QPF IN THE MORNING WITH BETTER CWASP NUMBERS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER STILL SOME LINGERING TROUGHINESS SO
WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BUT ALL IN ALL THE 850 JET
INFLUENCE AND UPPER FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST EARLY IN
THE DAY.
.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH BETTER FORCING STAYING
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE VORT MAX/PV ANOMALY PASSING NE OF FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WELL REFLECTED IN LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVES
ACROSS CWA WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY IN
THE EVENING TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TAPERING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER VORT MAX DROPS SE
THROUGH THE STATE...WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEADING TO PEAK HEAT OF THE DAY INSTABILITY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.
300 MB SPEED MAX BRINGS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF VARYING STRENGTH
DEPENDING ON MODEL INTO THE REGION WITH DCVA-DRIVEN PCPN REACHING
THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH UPPER TROUGH NOW RETROGRADING FARTHER WEST
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GFS HAS A DRIER LOOK THAN ECMWF AS IT
DIGS AN OPEN WAVE WHILE ECMWF KEEPS A CLOSED LOW RIGHT OVER THE
STATE. WE MAY BE GETTING RID OF THE HEAVY RAINS/SEVERE WITH THE EXIT
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING WITH
VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES
IN FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH BLENDED GUIDANCE BRINGS LESSER
CHANCES IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE EVENTS. EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ALONG. 500 MILLIBAR
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. INFLUENCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE BEST FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-056-
057-062-063-067>070.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW EARLIER
CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DISSIPATED/EXITED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO TELL WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
STALLED OUT...BUT AN ARCING LINE OF CLOUDS FROM NW IOWA TO MOLINE
TO NW OHIO COULD BE IT. REMNANT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IOWA IS RELATIVE INACTIVE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...AS
IS MUCH OF THE STATE OF WISCONSIN. A FEW STORMS POPPED UP OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ALSO WILL NEED TO WATCH THE AREA OF CU OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR SHOWER/TSTORM DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ML CAPES ARE BUILDING TO AROUND 800 J/KG BUT NEED A LITTLE MORE
LIFT VIA LAKE BREEZES TO GET CONVECTION STARTED. AN AREA OVER FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN MIXED OUT...SO WILL SHIFT PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY
SOUTH OF VILAS COUNTY. THE NEXT AREA OF WEATHER IS MOVING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WHICH WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTIONED OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS WELL AS NORTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. BY MID TO LATE EVENING...A LLJ WILL GET
CRANKING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SUGGEST THAT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
POINT TOWARDS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...WHICH IS THE REGION THAT HAS BEEN LIGHTING UP WITH STORMS
EACH OF THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. DO NOT HAVE ANY REASON TO THINK
DIFFERENTLY THIS TIME...BUT DO HAVE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...THAT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF
STORMS OVERNIGHT. ANY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
HOWEVER. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO WISCONSIN. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW SOMEWHAT...SO WILL
DELAY THE LIKELY POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL...AM ANTICIPATING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD REDUCE
SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME THOUGH ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTHWEST THURSDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE GET THE DRY WEATHER
USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE REASON IS THAT
SEVERAL JET STREAKS ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
AND DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS RESULTS IN THE
FORMATION OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OR LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
SEVERAL UPPER JETS SHOULD PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION
AT TIMES WHILE THERE IS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE DAYS WITH THE LEAST CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT IT WILL BEGIN TO EXIT ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN HAS
PUSHED A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A LAKE SUPERIOR ENHANCED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT MAY GENERATE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
RHI TAF. THEN THE BOUNDARY OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL
RETURN NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND
SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TOMORROW. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN AS VARIOUS 12Z MODELS HAVE PUSHED
PRECIP BACK UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. WILL DELAY THE PRECIP UNTIL THE
MORNING...BUT FUTURE TIMING CHANGES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR WITHIN SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC