Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/19/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
241 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALLS OUT NEARBY
INTO TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...SPECIFICALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COUPLED WITH A WEAK
FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA SHOULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IS DEPICTED BY CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS
WITH SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND LOWER INSTABILITY
CLOSER TO THE COAST...ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT
HEADS SOUTH THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH EXIT OF
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE AND LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
700-500 HPA NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN TUESDAY...AND
SHOULD ACT ON STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. STILL SOME VARIATION ON THE MODELS IN TERMS
OF COVERAGE/STRENGTH SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
MAIN QUESTION IS STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY. NAM HAS 1500-2500 J/KG
OF CAPE...WITH THE GFS ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG AND THE ECMWF
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
THE REGION WILL ALSO BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 75+ KT 300
HPA JET...HAVE 40-50 KT OF BULK SHEAR...AND FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL HELICITY. SO IF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY IN THE NAM CAN BE
REALIZED...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. IF NOT...THEN ONCE AGAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY AIRMASS
TSTMS...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLD LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL LIKE TODAY.
FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA NEAR
THE COAST TO 825 HPA WELL INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW CURLING
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
TUESDAY NIGHT WEAKENING AND GRADUALLY SINKING SE OF THE REGION.
FOR WED...MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE NE US TROUGH...AND
HELPING TO INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BUT COULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. IT WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED. IF NOTHING ELSE...A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WOULD HOLD TEMPS BELOW SEASONABLE
LEVELS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EACH AFT/EVE...MAINLY
OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
A TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS THE REGION LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS...THE FIRST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROF THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SE ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. DUE TO STRONG
WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND HIGH INSTABILITY...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
S/SW WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KT...G20KT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
CLOSE TO THE AREA...THEN E/SE WED MORNING DEPENDING ON THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GUIDANCE AS
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT TUE MORNING...WHICH WILL DEPEND OF
THE AMOUNT OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESS IT MAKES THIS EVENING. WINDS ON
TUE MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM EITHER A LIGHT E/SE TO W/SW FLOW.
GENERALLY VFR...BUT MVFR/IFR IN ANY CONVECTION. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AN ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO TUE MAY ALSO RESULT IN
FOG/HAZE...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE NYC TERMINALS.
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG CONVECTION TUE AFT...BUT
THIS WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY DUE TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION THIS AFT AND EVE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY DUE TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION THIS AFT AND EVE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY DUE TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION THIS AFT AND EVE.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY DUE TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION THIS AFT AND EVE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY DUE TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION THIS AFT AND EVE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY DUE TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION THIS AFT AND EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.TUE...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD BRING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.WED-SAT...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH RUNNING AROUND 1 FT TOO HIGH...SO ADJUSTED DOWN A FT OR
SO.
WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION EXPECT
WINDS TO BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES EACH DAY AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES...EVEN WITH A
PERSISTENT 2 FT SWELL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF FROM ANY SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOULD BE LESS THAN .1 INCHES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1
INCH...THE PROBABILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND HENCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS LOW.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/3-2/3 AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.25-1.5
INCHES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW FROM
THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
140 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALLS OUT NEARBY
INTO TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...SPECIFICALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COUPLED WITH A WEAK
FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA SHOULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IS DEPICTED BY CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS
WITH SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND LOWER INSTABILITY
CLOSER TO THE COAST...ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT
HEADS SOUTH THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH EXIT OF
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE AND LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
700-500 HPA NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN TUESDAY...AND
SHOULD ACT ON STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. STILL SOME VARIATION ON THE MODELS IN TERMS
OF COVERAGE/STRENGTH SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
MAIN QUESTION IS STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY. NAM HAS 1500-2500 J/KG
OF CAPE...WITH THE GFS ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG AND THE ECMWF
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
THE REGION WILL ALSO BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 75+ KT 300
HPA JET...HAVE 40-50 KT OF BULK SHEAR...AND FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL HELICITY. SO IF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY IN THE NAM CAN BE
REALIZED...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. IF NOT...THEN ONCE AGAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY AIRMASS
TSTMS...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLD LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL LIKE TODAY.
FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA NEAR
THE COAST TO 825 HPA WELL INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW CURLING
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
TUESDAY NIGHT WEAKENING AND GRADUALLY SINKING SE OF THE REGION.
FOR WED...MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE NE US TROUGH...AND
HELPING TO INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BUT COULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. IT WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED. IF NOTHING ELSE...A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WOULD HOLD TEMPS BELOW SEASONABLE
LEVELS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EACH AFT/EVE...MAINLY
OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
A TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS THE REGION LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN DROPS DOWN FROM NW THIS EVE AND MAY PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS FROM 22Z TO 02Z.
OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TO START. SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8-15 KT
SUSTAINED. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS AND TO ADD POSSIBLE LATE DAY CONVECTION. AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 20 KT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS AND TO ADD POSSIBLE LATE DAY CONVECTION. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADD POSSIBLE
LATE DAY CONVECTION.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADD POSSIBLE
LATE DAY CONVECTION.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE
DAY SEABREEZE AND TO ADD CONVECTION.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS. AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT TSTMS COULD BRING MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS.
.WED-FRI...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH RUNNING AROUND 1 FT TOO HIGH...SO ADJUSTED DOWN A FT OR
SO.
WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION EXPECT
WINDS TO BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES EACH DAY AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES...EVEN WITH A
PERSISTENT 2 FT SWELL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF FROM ANY SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOULD BE LESS THAN .1 INCHES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1
INCH...THE PROBABILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND HENCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS LOW.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/3-2/3 AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.25-1.5
INCHES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW FROM
THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
104 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALLS OUT NEARBY
INTO TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER ORANGE
COUNTY. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...SPECIFICALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. UPDATED OTHER GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN THE NEAR TERM.
1630 UTC SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHERWISE...WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH A WEAK FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA SHOULD SERVE AS THE
TRIGGER FOR A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IS DEPICTED BY CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS
WITH SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND LOWER INSTABILITY
CLOSER TO THE COAST...ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT
HEADS SOUTH THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH EXIT OF
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE AND LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
700-500 HPA NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN TUESDAY...AND
SHOULD ACT ON STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. STILL SOME VARIATION ON THE MODELS IN TERMS
OF COVERAGE/STRENGTH SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
MAIN QUESTION IS STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY. NAM HAS 1500-2500 J/KG
OF CAPE...WITH THE GFS ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG AND THE ECMWF
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
THE REGION WILL ALSO BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 75+ KT 300
HPA JET...HAVE 40-50 KT OF BULK SHEAR...AND FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL HELICITY. SO IF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY IN THE NAM CAN BE
REALIZED...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. IF NOT...THEN ONCE AGAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY AIRMASS
TSTMS...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLD LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL LIKE TODAY.
FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA NEAR
THE COAST TO 825 HPA WELL INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW CURLING
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
TUESDAY NIGHT WEAKENING AND GRADUALLY SINKING SE OF THE REGION.
FOR WED...MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE NE US TROUGH...AND
HELPING TO INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BUT COULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. IT WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED. IF NOTHING ELSE...A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WOULD HOLD TEMPS BELOW SEASONABLE
LEVELS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EACH AFT/EVE...MAINLY
OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
A TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS THE REGION LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN DROPS DOWN FROM NW THIS EVE AND MAY PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS FROM 22Z TO 02Z.
OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TO START. SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8-15 KT
SUSTAINED. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS AND TO ADD POSSIBLE LATE DAY CONVECTION. AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 20 KT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS AND TO ADD POSSIBLE LATE DAY CONVECTION. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADD POSSIBLE
LATE DAY CONVECTION.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADD POSSIBLE
LATE DAY CONVECTION.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE
DAY SEABREEZE AND TO ADD CONVECTION.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS. AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT TSTMS COULD BRING MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS.
.WED-FRI...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH RUNNING AROUND 1 FT TOO HIGH...SO ADJUSTED DOWN A FT OR
SO.
WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION EXPECT
WINDS TO BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES EACH DAY AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES...EVEN WITH A
PERSISTENT 2 FT SWELL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF FROM ANY SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOULD BE LESS THAN .1 INCHES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1
INCH...THE PROBABILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND HENCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS LOW.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/3-2/3 AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.25-1.5
INCHES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW FROM
THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1104 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALLS OUT NEARBY
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LOWERED SKY COVER THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED
OFFSHORE. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACCEPTED.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COUPLED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA SHOULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGER
FOR A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS FORECAST BY THE RAP/NAM/SREF. LATEST 12Z
NAM AND HRRR RUNS SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE REGION AND MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR THAT MAY SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AND LOWER INSTABILITY.
IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPE...FORECAST TO HAVE 40-50
KT OF BULK SHEAR. A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH FORECAST BULK SHEAR VALUES 40-50 KT
AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 7500-9500 FT COULD SEE SOME SMALL TO
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH EXIT OF
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE AND LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
700-500 HPA NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN TUESDAY...AND
SHOULD ACT ON STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. STILL SOME VARIATION ON THE MODELS IN TERMS
OF COVERAGE/STRENGTH SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
MAIN QUESTION IS STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY. NAM HAS 1500-2500 J/KG
OF CAPE...WITH THE GFS ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG AND THE ECMWF
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
THE REGION WILL ALSO BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 75+ KT 300
HPA JET...HAVE 40-50 KT OF BULK SHEAR...AND FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL HELICITY. SO IF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY IN THE NAM CAN BE
REALIZED...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. IF NOT...THEN ONCE AGAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY AIRMASS
TSTMS...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLD LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL LIKE TODAY.
FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA NEAR
THE COAST TO 825 HPA WELL INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW CURLING
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
TUESDAY NIGHT WEAKENING AND GRADUALLY SINKING SE OF THE REGION.
FOR WED...MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE NE US TROUGH...AND
HELPING TO INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BUT COULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. IT WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED. IF NOTHING ELSE...A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WOULD HOLD TEMPS BELOW SEASONABLE
LEVELS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EACH AFT/EVE...MAINLY
OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
A TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS THE REGION LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN DROPS DOWN FROM NW THIS EVE AND MAY PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION...
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS FROM 22Z TO 02Z.
OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TO START. SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8-15 KT
SUSTAINED. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS AND TO ADD POSSIBLE LATE DAY CONVECTION. AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 20 KT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS AND TO ADD POSSIBLE LATE DAY CONVECTION. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADD POSSIBLE
LATE DAY CONVECTION.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADD POSSIBLE
LATE DAY CONVECTION.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE
DAY SEABREEZE AND TO ADD CONVECTION.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS. AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT TSTMS COULD BRING MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS.
.WED-FRI...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH RUNNING AROUND 1 FT TOO HIGH...SO ADJUSTED DOWN A FT OR
SO.
WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION EXPECT
WINDS TO BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES EACH DAY AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES...EVEN WITH A
PERSISTENT 2 FT SWELL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF FROM ANY SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOULD BE LESS THAN .1 INCHES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1
INCH...THE PROBABILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND HENCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS LOW.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/3-2/3 AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.25-1.5
INCHES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW FROM
THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1026 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALLS OUT NEARBY
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LOWERED SKY COVER THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED
OFFSHORE. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACCEPTED.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COUPLED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA SHOULD SERVE AS THE TRIGGER
FOR A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IS FORECAST BY THE RAP/NAM/SREF. LATEST 12Z
NAM AND HRRR RUNS SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE REGION AND MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR THAT MAY SERVE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AND LOWER INSTABILITY.
IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPE...FORECAST TO HAVE 40-50
KT OF BULK SHEAR. A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH FORECAST BULK SHEAR VALUES 40-50 KT
AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 7500-9500 FT COULD SEE SOME SMALL TO
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH EXIT OF
700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE AND LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
700-500 HPA NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN TUESDAY...AND
SHOULD ACT ON STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. STILL SOME VARIATION ON THE MODELS IN TERMS
OF COVERAGE/STRENGTH SO KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW.
MAIN QUESTION IS STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY. NAM HAS 1500-2500 J/KG
OF CAPE...WITH THE GFS ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG AND THE ECMWF
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
THE REGION WILL ALSO BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 75+ KT 300
HPA JET...HAVE 40-50 KT OF BULK SHEAR...AND FAIRLY DECENT LOW
LEVEL HELICITY. SO IF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY IN THE NAM CAN BE
REALIZED...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS. IF NOT...THEN ONCE AGAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY AIRMASS
TSTMS...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLD LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL LIKE TODAY.
FOR HIGHS TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA NEAR
THE COAST TO 825 HPA WELL INLAND...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW CURLING
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
TUESDAY NIGHT WEAKENING AND GRADUALLY SINKING SE OF THE REGION.
FOR WED...MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE NE US TROUGH...AND
HELPING TO INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BUT COULD BE ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. IT WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED. IF NOTHING ELSE...A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WOULD HOLD TEMPS BELOW SEASONABLE
LEVELS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EACH AFT/EVE...MAINLY
OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
A TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS THE REGION LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TO START. SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8-15 KT
SUSTAINED. SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE INLAND. TIMING AND PLACEMENT
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS. AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF
ANY WIND SHIFTS. AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT TSTMS COULD BRING MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS.
.WED-FRI...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH RUNNING AROUND 1 FT TOO HIGH...SO ADJUSTED DOWN A FT OR
SO.
WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION EXPECT
WINDS TO BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES EACH DAY AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES...EVEN WITH A
PERSISTENT 2 FT SWELL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARGINAL SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF FROM ANY SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOULD BE LESS THAN .1 INCHES. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1
INCH...THE PROBABILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND HENCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS LOW.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/3-2/3 AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.25-1.5
INCHES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW FROM
THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/NV
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON OVER-TOP AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
ALIGNED ACROSS THE STATE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SYNOPTIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO ACCELERATE THE
SEA-BREEZE INLAND ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WITH A SLOWER INLAND
EXPANSION FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE FLOW IS LIGHTER OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
OPPOSED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED SO FAR WITH
WIDELY SCT CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE I-75
CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
STILL ANTICIPATE AN ACTIVE EVENING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WAS ACTUALLY HINTING AT A LATE START...AND
PLENTY OF DAYLIGHT/HEATING LEFT TO GO. EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE COLLISION WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM
POLK COUNTY TO HIGHLANDS AND THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARD FT. MYERS. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR
THESE AREA. FURTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-4...THE ONLY
CHANCES FOR STORMS NOW LOOKS TO BE WELL INLAND WITH THE PROPAGATING
SEA-BREEZE...AND EVENTUALLY THIS CONVERGENT ZONE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE NATION INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THIS FRONT WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA AND IS PROGGED BY GLOBAL
GUIDANCE TO STALL AND WASH OUT NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MID/LATE JUNE. FOR
TUESDAY...SOME INDICATIONS OF A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN
FOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG WITH A QUICKLY MOVING SEA-BREEZE WILL KEEP
POPS LOWER TO THE NORTH OF I-4. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS
SUPPRESSED DOWN TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH.
THIS POSITION SHOULD SET UP A LARGER PORTION OF AREA TO SEE A
QUICKLY MOVING SEA-BREEZE...AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST.
HAVE NOTICED A WARMING OF THE SHELF WATERS IN THE PAST WEEK OR 2 AND
RESULTING SPIKE IN COASTAL DEWPOINTS LATELY. FOR THIS REASON...HEAT
INDICES HAVE BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN. FORECAST THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL SHOW MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
WEAK U/L TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST
GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE WESTERLIES LIFTING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS AN U/L
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL PINCH
OFF THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST GULF
SEPARATING IT FROM THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST
GULF OFF THE GEORGIA/S CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
INTERIOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE INTERIOR POSSIBLY
PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
EACH DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS
THURSDAY...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND WEST ISOLD TSRA NOW FORMING WILL MOVE
INLAND AS THEY BECOME SCT. STILL LOOKING FOR VCNTY TSRA/CB ONLY
INLAND AND SOUTH DURING THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN TERMINALS COULD SEE
ISOLD SHRA IN A 01Z-06Z WINDOW. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STEADIER ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP PREVENT
ANY CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY. MAXIMUM DAILY HEAT INDICES
WILL BE ELEVATED WITH TYPICAL VALUES OF 98 TO 104 DEGREES COMMON.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY INLAND FOG IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING RAINFALL FROM DAILY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 93 77 92 / 10 20 10 20
FMY 76 93 76 93 / 30 40 20 40
GIF 74 94 74 93 / 40 40 20 40
SRQ 75 90 76 90 / 10 20 10 20
BKV 70 93 72 93 / 10 20 10 20
SPG 79 91 79 91 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
506 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2013
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by an elongated
ridge over the Nrn Gulf of Mex with high centered over W/Cntrl Gulf.
North of this ridge axis, exists moist quasi-zonal flow across SE
region and into the Wrn Atlc. However, a series of embedded short-
waves will continue to ride Ewd in this flow. During the predawn
hours, latest satellite imagery shows lead impulse over NW GA thru
S/Cntrl AL and into Gulf of Mex. At surface, Atlc high well east of
Carolinas with ridge axis WSW across Nrn Gulf region. Approaching
impulse continues to shunt surface ridge SEWD resulting in a
moistening up of deep layer moisture underneath the zonal flow
including a veering of low level flow. All this reflected in area
model soundings. i.e. GFS TAE with PWATS increasing from 1.38 to
1.92 inches from 12z Mon to 00z Tues, also 24 hr comparisons show
dew points running 4 to 9 degrees higher than same time yesterday
with models showing a return to inland aftn dewpoints around 70
degrees. With moist near surface conditions from recent rains,
patchy light fog or stratus may persist past sunrise.
RAP shows that shortwave will move ewd across FL/AL then FL/GA
border area during the late morning into the aftn. At surface, deep
WSW steering flow will drive Gulf seabreeze inland into late aftn
and to I-10 and beyond during eve. So models to show that the
juxtaposition of passing shortwave and lifting seabreeze plus any
convection that develops along mesoscale boundaries will generate a
good chance of storms today. HI RES guidance like WRF and NM4 imply
that focus should be across SE AL and Nrn tier GA counties in the
late aftn into eve when closest to seabreeze and when impulse
providing best lift. Strong to isold severe storms possible but any
severe threat should remain isolated and brief pulsy as is typical
for summer. i.e. RAP 21z Mon for SE AL with good cape 3200 J/KG but
0-6km shear only 20kts, BRN shear only 20 m/s and 700-500mb lapse
rate of 6c/km. Will go with sharp 60-10% NW-SE pop gradient. Expect
inland highs in the low 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Night]...
A broad low amplitude upper level trough over the eastern CONUS
will gradually deepen as a series of impulses eject out of the
Plains. Deep layer moisture will be on increase and a cold front
will drop down into northern AL/GA by 00z Wednesday. The deepest
moisture and best upper level support will be over the northern
portions of the forecast area. PoPs on Tuesday will be tapered from
good chance/likely for our AL and most Georgia zones with chances
PoPs for all Florida zones (30-40%) except the southeast Big Bend
(20%). Expect slight to chance PoPs for the nighttime periods. Max
and min temps will remain near seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Some days will likely have slightly
higher PoPs than others depending on the timing of individual weak
shortwaves, which is hard to forecast in the long term. No major
synoptic scale system are expected to impact the area during the
period. Temperatures are expected to remain near their seasonal
averages.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 12z Tuesday]...
Expect MVFR ceilings/vsbys in fog to settle in briefly rest of
predawn hoUrs. Brief IFR possible around sunrise especially at TLH
and also at DHN and VLD. Conditions should improve to VFR after 14z.
Showers and thunderstorms starting in the late morning/early
afternoon and all sites will include VCTS with prob30 TSRA at DHN
and ABY 20Z-24Z. Winds will be from the southeast around 5-10 kts
becoming light southwest after sundown. After 08z, expect MVFR CIGS
and possibly VSBYS to redevelop especially across VLD and TLH.
IFR CIGS remain possible exepcially at VLD near sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature across the
northern Gulf of Mexico this week, yielding mainly light southwest
to west flow and low seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are not expected thru the work week as RH values
remain above critical levels. The combination of deep mixing and
somewhat stronger winds aloft will help dispersion values climb
above 75 Tues afternoon.]
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 91 72 92 72 92 / 30 20 40 20 40
Panama City 87 75 90 75 87 / 40 20 30 20 40
Dothan 91 72 91 73 91 / 50 40 60 30 40
Albany 92 73 91 72 92 / 50 40 60 30 50
Valdosta 91 71 92 72 92 / 40 30 40 30 40
Cross City 92 69 92 71 91 / 10 20 20 20 20
Apalachicola 86 75 88 76 86 / 20 10 20 10 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barry
MARINE...Barry/DVD
NEAR TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Block
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
347 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2013
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by an upper ridge
moving slowly ewd across Rockies, an elongated ridge over the Nrn
Gulf of Mex with high centered over W/Cntrl Gulf, and north of this
ridge axis, a moist quasi-zonal flow across SE region and into the
Wrn Atlc. A series of embedded impulses will continue to ride Ewd in
this flow. Lead vort moving into Cntrl AL during pre-dawn hours
spawning active convection across Cntrl GA but should remain well
north of our area. At surface, Atlc high well east of Carolinas with
ridge axis WSW across Nrn Gulf region. With moist near surface
conditions from recent rains, patchy light fog or stratus may
persist past sunrise.
RAP shows another shortwave moving from Cntrl MS to Cntrl AL later
today with vort lobe brushing our area in late aftn. At surface,
Gulf seabreeze again expected to push Nwd into late aftn and eve. So
models continue to show a moistening up of deep layer moisture
underneath the zonal flow. All this reflected in area model
soundings. i.e. GFS TAE with PWATS increasing from 1.38 to 1.92
inches from 12z Mon to 00z Tues, also 24 hr comparisons show dew
points running 4 to 9 degrees higher than same time yesterday with
models showing a return to inland aftn dewpoints around 70 degrees.
The juxtaposition of passing impulse and lifting seabreeze plus any
convection that develops along mesoscale boundaries will generate a
good chance of storms today. HI RES guidance like WRF and NM4 imply
that focus should be across SE AL and adjacent SW GA counties in the
late aftn into eve when closest to seabreeze and when impulse
providing best lift. Strong to isold severe storms possible but
any severe threat should remain isolated and brief pulsy as is
typical for summer. i.e. RAP 21z Mon for SE AL with good cape 3200
J/KG but 0-6km shear only 20kts, BRN shear only 20 m/s and 700-500mb
lapse rate of 6c/km. Will go with sharp 60-10% NW-SE pop gradient.
Expect inland highs in the low 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Night]...
A broad low amplitude upper level trough over the eastern CONUS
will gradually deepen as a series of impulses eject out of the
Plains. Deep layer moisture will be on increase and a cold front
will drop down into northern AL/GA by 00z Wednesday. The deepest
moisture and best upper level support will be over the northern
portions of the forecast area. PoPs on Tuesday will be tapered from
good chance/likely for our AL and most Georgia zones with chances
PoPs for all Florida zones (30-40%) except the southeast Big Bend
(20%). Expect slight to chance PoPs for the nighttime periods. Max
and min temps will remain near seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Some days will likely have slightly
higher PoPs than others depending on the timing of individual weak
shortwaves, which is hard to forecast in the long term. No major
synoptic scale system are expected to impact the area during the
period. Temperatures are expected to remain near their seasonal
averages.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 06z Tuesday]...
Expect MVFR ceilings/vsbys in fog to settle in briefly around
09-11Z. Brief IFR possible around sunrise especially at TLH and also
at DHN and VLD. Conditions should improve to VFR after 14z. Showers
and thunderstorms starting in the late morning/early afternoon and
all sites will include VCTS with prob30 TSRA at DHN and ABY
20Z-24Z. Winds will be from the southeast around 5-10 kts becoming
light southwest after sundown.
&&
.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature across the
northern Gulf of Mexico this week, yielding mainly light southwest
to west flow and low seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are not expected thru the work week as RH values
remain above critical levels. The combination of deep mixing and
somewhat stronger winds aloft will help dispersion values climb
above 75 Tues afternoon.]
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 91 72 92 72 92 / 30 20 40 20 40
Panama City 87 75 90 75 87 / 40 20 30 20 40
Dothan 91 72 91 73 91 / 50 40 60 30 40
Albany 92 73 91 72 92 / 50 40 60 30 50
Valdosta 91 71 92 72 92 / 40 30 40 30 40
Cross City 92 69 92 71 91 / 10 20 20 20 20
Apalachicola 86 75 88 76 86 / 20 10 20 10 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barry
MARINE...Barry/DVD
NEAR TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Block
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...DVD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
214 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EASTWARD
AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY HELP TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BUT EXPECT MAINLY JUST SCATTERED. A WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH JUST MARGINAL LIS -2/-3...TOTALS 44/45 AND CAPES
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PWAT AROUND 1.90 INCHES. SIX HOUR QPF VALUES
AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS. SO NOT MUCH FLOODING POTENTIAL
EXPECTED. AND LATEST SATELLITE PCPN ESTIMATE KEEPS FLOODING
POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE LATEST SPENES.
TONIGHT...MAINLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY BUT NAM BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK
IMPULSE TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO...PLAN ON
KEEPING AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE...SAY AROUND 30 PERCENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE MODELS KEEP BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND CLOUDINESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THRU MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LESSENS INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONE SHORT WAVE MOVED EAST THIS MORNING BUT RUC13 BRINGS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS MAY HELP TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT FOR TIME BEING WILL JUST MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
22Z-02Z ALL TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EXCEPT IF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...MAY SEE BRIEF
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BELOW 1 KFT SOUTHWEST 12-15 KNOTS...STRATUS
IS A POSSIBILITY. MVFR CIGS OCCURRED THIS MORNING AT AGS...DNL AND
OGB AND MVFR CIGS NEAR 2 KFT ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND 10Z-13Z TIME FRAME. AFTER 13Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS JUST
LIKE TODAY BUT ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
JUST LIKE TODAY AND MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING AND LOCATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
158 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EASTWARD
AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY HELP TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BUT EXPECT MAINLY JUST SCATTERED. A WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH JUST MARGINAL LIS -2/-3...TOTALS 44/45 AND CAPES
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PWAT AROUND 1.90 INCHES. SIX HOUR QPF VALUES
AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS. SO NOT MUCH FLOODING POTENTIAL
EXPECTED. AND LATEST SATELLITE PCPN ESTIMATE KEEPS FLOODING
POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE LATEST SPENES.
TONIGHT...MAINLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY BUT NAM BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK
IMPULSE TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO...PLAN ON
KEEPING AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE...SAY AROUND 30 PERCENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFUSE EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE. THE MODELS KEEP BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS. THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE APPEARS BETTER BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENCY
IN THE PLACEMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONE SHORT WAVE MOVED EAST THIS MORNING BUT RUC13 BRINGS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS MAY HELP TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT FOR TIME BEING WILL JUST MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
22Z-02Z ALL TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EXCEPT IF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...MAY SEE BRIEF
IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BELOW 1 KFT SOUTHWEST 12-15 KNOTS...STRATUS
IS A POSSIBILITY. MVFR CIGS OCCURRED THIS MORNING AT AGS...DNL AND
OGB AND MVFR CIGS NEAR 2 KFT ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND 10Z-13Z TIME FRAME. AFTER 13Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS JUST
LIKE TODAY BUT ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
JUST LIKE TODAY AND MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING AND LOCATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
617 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EASTWARD
AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING HAS REMOVED THE CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATE DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF THE DIFFUSE FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE THE
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW COVERAGE DIMINISHING AS
THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...
WE DID NOT FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
FORECASTED POPS OF 50 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST PART BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL.
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH MOISTURE AND HEATING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BECAUSE LIFT ASSOCIATED
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -5 TODAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS PLUS THE SREF MEAN SUPPORT GENERAL RAIN
AMOUNTS NEAR ONE-HALF OF AN INCH. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR BECAUSE OF
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND POSSIBLE TRAINING. LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFUSE EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE. THE MODELS KEEP BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS. THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE APPEARS BETTER BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENCY
IN THE PLACEMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN GA MOVING EASTWARD.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER AGS/DNL. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP FOR BOTH AGS AND DNL FOR SHRA UNTIL 14Z. AFTER ANY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS...VFR EXPECTED TODAY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE MENTION SHRA AFTER 21Z AT ALL
TAF SITES BUT TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF SHRA IN THE TAFS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
612 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EASTWARD
AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST
AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING HAS REMOVED THE CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATE DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF THE DIFFUSE FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE THE
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW COVERAGE DIMINISHING AS
THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...
WE DID NOT FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
FORECASTED POPS OF 50 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST PART BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL.
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH MOISTURE AND HEATING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BECAUSE LIFT ASSOCIATED
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY TODAY. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -5 TODAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS PLUS THE SREF MEAN SUPPORT GENERAL RAIN
AMOUNTS NEAR ONE-HALF OF AN INCH. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR BECAUSE OF
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND POSSIBLE TRAINING. LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFUSE EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE. THE MODELS KEEP BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS. THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE APPEARS BETTER BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS. THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENCY
IN THE PLACEMENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN GA MOVING EASTWARD.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER AGS/DNL. AFTER ANY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS...VFR EXPECTED MONDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HAVE MENTION SHRA AFTER 21Z AT ALL
TAF SITES BUT TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF SHRA IN THE TAFS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1004 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
849 PM CDT
VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE LAKE
RESULTING IN A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NE IL AND NW IN. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE LONG NNE FETCH OF THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAS
CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR 20+ MPH GUSTS EARLY THIS EVE. THESE LOOK
SLOW TO SUBSIDE PER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SO THESE WILL ADD A LITTLE NIP IN THE AIR...BY JUNE
STANDARDS...ACROSS CHICAGO WITH TEMPS FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
MID-UPPER 50S. THE COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE ALONG
THE STATE LINE WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE. UPPER 40S SHOULD
BE REALIZED THERE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
239 PM CDT
STRATUS LAYER THAT WAS ANCHORED OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN
THIS MORNING HAS ERODED WITH THE WARM AIR HEATING THE SFC. VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IL. IN ADDITION SOME BUILDING CUMULUS
CLOUDS WERE NOTED ALONG A PONTIAC TO KANKAKEE LINE...IN AN AREA OF A
STRONGER THERMAL DIFFERENTIAL. HOWEVER THE LIFT MECHANISM IN THIS
AREA IS MINIMAL...AND SO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE. ALL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWFA WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THUS BY SUNSET OR IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNSET
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END. FURTHER SOUTH STRONGER INSTABILITY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL IL STRETCHING WEST THROUGH NORTHERN
MISSOURI. MID-LVL WAVE CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IL THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWFA. AS A RESULT COOL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER FROM THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE LLVL FLOW WEAKENING. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S SOUTH OF I-80. FURTHER NORTH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TO ARND 50...POSSIBLY THE UPR 40S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF A ROCKFORD...AURORA...WAUKEGAN LINE.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PIVOTS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WED...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THUR. THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST...HOWEVER AN ONSHORE OR NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN IL. THE DIFFERENCE FOR WED
WILL BE THAT THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVERHEAD. WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING...TEMPS SHUD WARM INTO THE MID/UPR
70S OR POSSIBLY THE LOW 80S FROM LASALLE TO IROQUOIS COUNTY.
FOR THUR 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH FLOW BEGINNING TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LLVLS. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP
AND PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY IL...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY PROVIDE A
COOLING TREND IN THE AFTN HOURS. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY WARM FOR
THUR TO ARND 14 TO 16 DEG C...WITH CONTINUED THIN CLOUD COVER. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THE CAVEAT WILL BE
AREAS OF LAKE COUNTY IL POST FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTN.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL LINGER THRU THUR
AFTN/EVE...THUS HAVE HELD ONTO A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING AS WE MIGRATE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THUR...MEDIUM/HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MINIMAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. POSSIBLY THE FIRST STRETCH OF 90 DEG DAYS IS UPON US FOR
SUN/MON/TUE.
GUIDANCE HAS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING OVERHEAD FRI WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN ADDTL LLVL MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR A
WAVE WILL ALSO PUSH OVER THE CWFA FRI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARM FOR FRI INTO THE
UPR 80S...WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE POINTS ACROSS THE CWFA.
ENSEMBLES FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT A 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ADVECT EAST AND BECOME ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE HAS PROGGED
850MB TEMPS TO RISE TO ARND 20-22 DEG C FOR THE WEEKEND THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS WARM STRETCH ARRIVING. THEN SUN/MON/TUE APPEAR TO BE NEAR
CARBON COPIES WITH TEMPS EASILY WARMING TO 90 DEGREES...POSSIBLY THE
LOW 90S. CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AND TIME OF
YEAR WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS TO BE WARMER AS FORECASTED. A COUPLE
LIMITING FACTORS MIGHT BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIES OF WAVES
BRINGING INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH DEW PTS PROGGED TO BE ARND 70 DEG.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK IN THE MID/UPR 80S.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP/CONVECTIVE FORECAST...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
* WIND TRENDS TOMORROW...LIKELY VARYING BETWEEN NORTHEAST AND EAST.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WILL VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SLOWLY VEERING WINDS
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY BY THURSDAY AROUND TO
THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA
FOR A WHILE AND MAINTAIN GENERALLY CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OTHER ELEMENTS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
137 PM CDT
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A
FEW DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. WIND MAGNITUDES GENERALLY
LOOK TO BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF 15 TO 25
KT SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR A FEW PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE LAKE. A
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP UP ACROSS THE GREAT
THE NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
IN THE SHORTER TERM...I HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO
THIS EVENING FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORES AND MAINTAINED THE ADVISORY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE INDIANA SHORES. LOCAL BUOY OBS INDICATE
WAVES AROUND 4 FT...AND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO BE IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH...I DO NOT SEE ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN THE WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
849 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
849 PM CDT
VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE LAKE
RESULTING IN A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NE IL AND NW IN. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE LONG NNE FETCH OF THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAS
CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR 20+ MPH GUSTS EARLY THIS EVE. THESE LOOK
SLOW TO SUBSIDE PER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SO THESE WILL ADD A LITTLE NIP IN THE AIR...BY JUNE
STANDARDS...ACROSS CHICAGO WITH TEMPS FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
MID-UPPER 50S. THE COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE ALONG
THE STATE LINE WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE. UPPER 40S SHOULD
BE REALIZED THERE.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
239 PM CDT
STRATUS LAYER THAT WAS ANCHORED OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN
THIS MORNING HAS ERODED WITH THE WARM AIR HEATING THE SFC. VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IL. IN ADDITION SOME BUILDING CUMULUS
CLOUDS WERE NOTED ALONG A PONTIAC TO KANKAKEE LINE...IN AN AREA OF A
STRONGER THERMAL DIFFERENTIAL. HOWEVER THE LIFT MECHANISM IN THIS
AREA IS MINIMAL...AND SO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE. ALL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWFA WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THUS BY SUNSET OR IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNSET
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END. FURTHER SOUTH STRONGER INSTABILITY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL IL STRETCHING WEST THROUGH NORTHERN
MISSOURI. MID-LVL WAVE CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IL THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWFA. AS A RESULT COOL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER FROM THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE LLVL FLOW WEAKENING. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S SOUTH OF I-80. FURTHER NORTH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TO ARND 50...POSSIBLY THE UPR 40S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF A ROCKFORD...AURORA...WAUKEGAN LINE.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PIVOTS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WED...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THUR. THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST...HOWEVER AN ONSHORE OR NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN IL. THE DIFFERENCE FOR WED
WILL BE THAT THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVERHEAD. WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING...TEMPS SHUD WARM INTO THE MID/UPR
70S OR POSSIBLY THE LOW 80S FROM LASALLE TO IROQUOIS COUNTY.
FOR THUR 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH FLOW BEGINNING TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LLVLS. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP
AND PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY IL...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY PROVIDE A
COOLING TREND IN THE AFTN HOURS. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY WARM FOR
THUR TO ARND 14 TO 16 DEG C...WITH CONTINUED THIN CLOUD COVER. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THE CAVEAT WILL BE
AREAS OF LAKE COUNTY IL POST FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTN.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL LINGER THRU THUR
AFTN/EVE...THUS HAVE HELD ONTO A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING AS WE MIGRATE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THUR...MEDIUM/HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MINIMAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. POSSIBLY THE FIRST STRETCH OF 90 DEG DAYS IS UPON US FOR
SUN/MON/TUE.
GUIDANCE HAS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING OVERHEAD FRI WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN ADDTL LLVL MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR A
WAVE WILL ALSO PUSH OVER THE CWFA FRI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARM FOR FRI INTO THE
UPR 80S...WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE POINTS ACROSS THE CWFA.
ENSEMBLES FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT A 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ADVECT EAST AND BECOME ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE HAS PROGGED
850MB TEMPS TO RISE TO ARND 20-22 DEG C FOR THE WEEKEND THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS WARM STRETCH ARRIVING. THEN SUN/MON/TUE APPEAR TO BE NEAR
CARBON COPIES WITH TEMPS EASILY WARMING TO 90 DEGREES...POSSIBLY THE
LOW 90S. CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AND TIME OF
YEAR WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS TO BE WARMER AS FORECASTED. A COUPLE
LIMITING FACTORS MIGHT BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIES OF WAVES
BRINGING INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH DEW PTS PROGGED TO BE ARND 70 DEG.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK IN THE MID/UPR 80S.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP/CONVECTIVE FORECAST...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* TIMING OF DIMINISHING GUSTS THIS EVENING.
* WIND TRENDS TOMORROW...LIKELY VARYING BETWEEN NORTHEAST AND EAST.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WILL VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SLOWLY VEERING WINDS
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY BY THURSDAY AROUND TO
THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA
FOR A WHILE AND MAINTAIN GENERALLY CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OTHER ELEMENTS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
137 PM CDT
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A
FEW DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. WIND MAGNITUDES GENERALLY
LOOK TO BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF 15 TO 25
KT SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR A FEW PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE LAKE. A
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP UP ACROSS THE GREAT
THE NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
IN THE SHORTER TERM...I HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO
THIS EVENING FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORES AND MAINTAINED THE ADVISORY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE INDIANA SHORES. LOCAL BUOY OBS INDICATE
WAVES AROUND 4 FT...AND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO BE IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH...I DO NOT SEE ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN THE WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1010 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS LARGELY LIFTED...WITH JUST A BIT OF HAZE
LINGERING NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER. LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS IS
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS IS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA AS A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A
BROAD POOL OF DEW POINTS NEAR 70 ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THERE WITH THE BOUNDARY NOT TOO
FAR AWAY...BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE THAT ORGANIZED. ANOTHER BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY ALSO
TRIGGER A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL IN THAT
AREA.
HAVE SENT SOME UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS...MAINLY TO UPDATE THE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1204 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
MAIN CONCERN WITH 18Z TAF SET INVOLVES POTENTIAL FOR POP-UP
CONVECTION. MIDDAY SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THEM. THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD NOT MOVE
MUCH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THEM. THUS...AM THINKING THAT ONLY KSPI/KDEC/KCMI MAY SEE A
THREAT OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THEY ARE CLOSEST TO THE
BOUNDARY. COVERAGE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MORE THAN A VCTS MENTION AT THESE SITES. ANY THUNDER NEAR THE TAF
SITES SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MAY SEE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT DO NOT THINK IT
WILL GET AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS THIS MORNING...DUE TO HIGHER
RANGES BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.
GEELHART
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. WITH ONE UPPER-WAVE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER TRACKING TO THE S/SW INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DESPITE LACK OF
UPPER DYNAMICS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY. HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE LOW CHANCE
POPS TODAY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-72.
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MAY PROVIDE A NEW WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. WHILE WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TUESDAY WOULD BE
DRY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A CONTINUED
MOIST AIR MASS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MODEST UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK
HEATING...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE WAVE PUSHES FURTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
00Z 17 JUN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
EXTENDED FORECAST. ALL MODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT IT INTO THE MIDWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. PREVIOUS RUNS DISAGREED ON THE EXACT STRENGTH/POSITIONING
OF THE RIDGE...WHICH BROUGHT INTO QUESTION WHETHER ANY MCS
ACTIVITY COULD RIDE UP/OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL LOOKING STRONGER WITH THE
RIDGING...KEEPING BEST FORCING FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE ONE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY BRUSH THE KILX CWA TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA. GIVEN BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS AND LACK OF CONVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP INTO
THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1012 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1010 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS LARGELY LIFTED...WITH JUST A BIT OF HAZE
LINGERING NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER. LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS IS
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS IS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA AS A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR ANY
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A
BROAD POOL OF DEW POINTS NEAR 70 ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THERE WITH THE BOUNDARY NOT TOO
FAR AWAY...BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE THAT ORGANIZED. ANOTHER BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY ALSO
TRIGGER A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL IN THAT
AREA.
HAVE SENT SOME UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS...MAINLY TO UPDATE THE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT PIA AND BMI...LOCALLY
DENSE ALONG I-72 AT SPI...DEC AND CMI WITH LIFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS...TO OCCUR UNTIL 13Z/8 AM WITH FOG LIFTING BEFORE
14Z/9 AM. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 3-5K FT TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT
25K FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-72 THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY AND BE CLOSEST IMPACT
TO SPI AND DEC AIRPORTS WHERE VCSH. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AT SUNSET WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS. COULD BE PATCHY
FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE LARGER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXPECTED. WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING BECOMING WSW 5-7 KTS BY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING LIGHT
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. WITH ONE UPPER-WAVE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER TRACKING TO THE S/SW INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DESPITE LACK OF
UPPER DYNAMICS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY. HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE LOW CHANCE
POPS TODAY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-72.
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MAY PROVIDE A NEW WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. WHILE WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TUESDAY WOULD BE
DRY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A CONTINUED
MOIST AIR MASS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MODEST UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK
HEATING...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE WAVE PUSHES FURTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
00Z 17 JUN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
EXTENDED FORECAST. ALL MODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT IT INTO THE MIDWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. PREVIOUS RUNS DISAGREED ON THE EXACT STRENGTH/POSITIONING
OF THE RIDGE...WHICH BROUGHT INTO QUESTION WHETHER ANY MCS
ACTIVITY COULD RIDE UP/OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL LOOKING STRONGER WITH THE
RIDGING...KEEPING BEST FORCING FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE ONE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY BRUSH THE KILX CWA TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA. GIVEN BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS AND LACK OF CONVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP INTO
THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BARNES
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
645 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. WITH ONE UPPER-WAVE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER TRACKING TO THE S/SW INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DESPITE LACK OF
UPPER DYNAMICS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY. HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE LOW CHANCE
POPS TODAY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-72.
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MAY PROVIDE A NEW WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. WHILE WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TUESDAY WOULD BE
DRY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MODEST UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK
HEATING...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE WAVE PUSHES FURTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
00Z 17 JUN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
EXTENDED FORECAST. ALL MODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT IT INTO THE MIDWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. PREVIOUS RUNS DISAGREED ON THE EXACT STRENGTH/POSITIONING
OF THE RIDGE...WHICH BROUGHT INTO QUESTION WHETHER ANY MCS
ACTIVITY COULD RIDE UP/OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL LOOKING STRONGER WITH THE
RIDGING...KEEPING BEST FORCING FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE ONE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY BRUSH THE KILX CWA TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA. GIVEN BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS AND LACK OF CONVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP INTO
THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 645 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT PIA AND BMI...LOCALLY
DENSE ALONG I-72 AT SPI...DEC AND CMI WITH LIFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS...TO OCCUR UNTIL 13Z/8 AM WITH FOG LIFTING BEFORE
14Z/9 AM. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 3-5K FT TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTEROON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT
25K FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-72 THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY AND BE CLOSEST IMPACT
TO SPI AND DEC AIRPORTS WHERE VCSH. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AT SUNSET WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS. COULD BE PATCHY
FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE LARGER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXPECTED. WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING BECOMING WSW 5-7 KTS BY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING LIGHT
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
252 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. WITH ONE UPPER-WAVE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER TRACKING TO THE S/SW INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DESPITE LACK OF
UPPER DYNAMICS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY. HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE LOW CHANCE
POPS TODAY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-72.
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MAY PROVIDE A NEW WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. WHILE WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TUESDAY WOULD BE
DRY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THANKS TO A CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MODEST UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK
HEATING...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE WAVE PUSHES FURTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
00Z 17 JUN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY WARM AND LARGELY DRY
EXTENDED FORECAST. ALL MODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT IT INTO THE MIDWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. PREVIOUS RUNS DISAGREED ON THE EXACT STRENGTH/POSITIONING
OF THE RIDGE...WHICH BROUGHT INTO QUESTION WHETHER ANY MCS
ACTIVITY COULD RIDE UP/OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL LOOKING STRONGER WITH THE
RIDGING...KEEPING BEST FORCING FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE ONE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY BRUSH THE KILX CWA TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS EVEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA. GIVEN BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS AND LACK OF CONVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP INTO
THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BARNES
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
FOG HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND CMI IS
ALREADY AT 4SM. BELIEVE THIS WILL CONTINUE AND AM EXPECTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES TO HAVE MVFR VIS STARTING AT 06Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS MVFR VIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TIL CLOSE TO
SUNRISE AND THEN ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE TEMPO VIS DOWN TO IFR OF
1-2SM. AFTER SUNRISE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND NOT EXPECTING
ANY VIS ISSUES REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CIRRUS WILL BE
THE ONLY CLOUD AROUND OVERNIGHT. THEN CU WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING AT AROUND 4-5KFT AND THEN DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND THEN WESTERLY TOMORROW...LESS THAN 10KTS. THEN LIGHT
OUT OF THE WEST AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING.
AUTEN
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KGLD AND KCMK
TERMINALS. CURRENTLY EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS EARLIER. BETTER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 20Z WHEN I HAVE VCTS
GROUP. I AM NOT SURE IF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY IF A LARGE SLOW MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
OVER EITHER TERMINAL. I KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW...AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR/AMEND AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING MOST OF THE NIGHT...AND WHILE I COULDNT
RULE THIS OUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CARRY MENTION PAST 08Z
(ESPECIALLY AT KMCK).
WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD SEE FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. IF THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
THIS LIKELY WONT BE THE CASE...SO I KEPT MVFR MENTION AT BOTH
TERMINALS IMPROVING AFTER DAYBREAK. A LOT CAN CHANGE WITH THIS
PATTERN DUE TO TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1246 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
SVR TSRA THAT WERE PROLIFIC GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL PRODUCERS OVER COWLEY
COUNTY HAVE DISSIPATED BUT HAVE ALSO UNLEASHED A W-NW MOVG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SUMNER & HARPER COUNTIES & TOWARD KICT. A CELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED E OF THE OUTFLOW. ISOLD CELLS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE
SE CORNER OF KS AS WELL AS OVER EC KS. MID-LVL FLOW IS VERY WEAK & AS
SUCH FAVORS A RATHER CHAOTIC CONVECTIVE "PATTERN" FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. HAVE TEMPORARILY ASSIGNED 40-50% TSRA TO EXTREME SC-SE KS
WITH SHARP POP-GRADIENT N TOWARD KS TURNPIKE TIL 10 PM. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED TSRA PROBABILITIES FOR LATER THIS EVENING TO REFLECT ONSET OF
MCS THAT`LL SURGE SE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...PRIMARILY SC KS. POP GAME
PLAN FROM MID-NGT TO 7 AM APPEARS ON TARGET. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY GRIDS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A RATHER COMPLICATED SCENARIO IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS FROM NEAR KHUT EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST TOWARD NORTON KANSAS
AT 2 PM CDT. CU HAS DEVELOPED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHILE THE OPERATIONAL ECM RAP SHOWS MINIMAL CINH WITHIN AN
AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WAS SITUATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE STATE LINE. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
SURGING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE DOWNSTREAM OF A PV ANOMALY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LATEST 12Z
SUITE OF MODEL DATA HAS SHIFTED THE QPF AXIS A BIT FURTHER WEST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS AREA REMAINS OVERTURNED FROM DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT/EARLY TODAY. ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE STEERED TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT WHILE MERGING WITH THE ACTIVITY DRIFTING SOUTH OUT OF
NEBRASKA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT WHILE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER NO PLANS TO
REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
2-3 INCHES A FEW LOCATIONS.
MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITHIN A STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR CONTINUED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
ARRIVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOW IN THE 60S. -MCGUIRE
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN
THIRD OF KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL STAY PLANTED FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME
WITHOUT A BREAKDOWN IN THE FLOW PATTERN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WHEN A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF A WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. THUS ANY IMPACT TO THE AREA COULD ONLY BE CONSIDERED
PRELIMINARY AT THIS TIME. THE RIDGE IN PLACE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE
FOR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE 90 ONCE MORE. -JUANITA
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH FROM THE WEST
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ONCE THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 64 84 65 84 / 10 10 10 40
HUTCHINSON 63 84 65 84 / 10 10 20 40
NEWTON 63 83 64 83 / 10 10 10 40
ELDORADO 63 83 64 83 / 10 10 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 65 84 66 85 / 10 10 10 40
RUSSELL 61 84 64 83 / 20 10 30 50
GREAT BEND 62 84 64 84 / 20 10 30 50
SALINA 62 84 64 83 / 10 10 20 40
MCPHERSON 62 83 64 83 / 10 10 20 40
COFFEYVILLE 65 85 66 85 / 10 10 0 30
CHANUTE 63 84 65 84 / 0 0 0 30
IOLA 62 83 64 83 / 0 0 0 30
PARSONS-KPPF 64 84 65 84 / 10 0 0 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ071-072-095-096-
098>100.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ094.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS WITH MANY FACTORS IN PLAY
FOR CONVECTION POTENTIAL...AND DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE AS TO
HOW/WHERE/WHEN STORMS EVOLVE. CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE CIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH AN AREA OF GENERALLY 1500-2000J/KG CAPE BISECTING
THE FA FROM NW TO SE. BULK SHEAR HOWEVER IS QUITE LOW...LESS THAN
10KTS WITHIN THE FIRST 15KFT PER NAM SOUNDINGS. PER CU FIELD ON
VISIBLE AND WINDS IN OBS WOULD APPEAR THAT BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
SOUTH OF EMPORIA...WITH SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH. NOT
CONFIDENT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR PROBABILITY.
STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP IN SW NEBRASKA AS WELL AS FAR SW
SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR. MOISTURE AXIS AND CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATE THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...BECOMING A CLUSTER AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOW FAR EASTWARD THEY CAN DEVELOP IS IN
QUESTION...WITH THE NAM/GFS/EC TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE QPF MAINLY
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR BRING A SQUALL
LINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY 9PM TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THINK THE EARLIER SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AND WILL TAKE
MOST OF THE LLJ ENERGY INTO THE WESTERNMOST STORM COMPLEX...THINKING
WON`T BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS FURTHER EAST BACK TOWARD
THE COOLER AIR. ONCE AGAIN WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST AND
DECREASE CHANCES EAST...BUT NOT WILLING TO TAKE POPS OUT FAR EAST
JUST YET GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH A LINE OF
STORMS TO MAKE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN...BUT SHEAR PROFILES
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION. STORMS MOVE EASTWARD
QUICKLY AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWS IN
THE 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON MONDAY...COOLER SE WHERE
CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING MONDAY. 67
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
EXPECT LARGE SCALE RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE IN THE MID RANGE TO
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPELL A
CONSISTENT PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...HOWEVER AS THAT TIME PERIOD
APPROACHES AND MODELS CONTINUE CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING IN THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE PERHAPS WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THIS WEEKEND REACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE COULD BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY.
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE TOUGH TO NAIL
DOWN...AS THERE ARE NO REAL STRONG MID LEVEL SIGNALS TO REALLY
TRACK FOR PRECIP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOES LOOK LIKE IT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS MODELS HINT
AT SOME STRONG CONVECTION TAKING PLACE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
DRAGGING THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEERING FLOW
WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE PRECIP. SHOULD THE
RIDGE BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED THE W-SW STEERING FLOW MAY END UP OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER SHOULD THE RIDGE BE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED IT WOULD SHUNT THE CONVECTION NORTH. EITHER
WAY...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TIME FRAME FOR THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...THE MAINLY DRY AND WARM
FORECAST DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
JL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. AS THESE TWO AREAS MERGE TOGETHER...MAY SEE
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW LONG THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...LEIGHTON
AVIATION...HENNECKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
253 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
MID LVL SHORT WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH MO WILL CONTINUE TO
SPAWN SCAT TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE WAVE FORMS OVER AR AND DRIFTS EAST INTO
TN. THIS SHORT WAVE AND SFC FEATURE WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO MOVE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY ACTUALLY
PROPAGATE FROM SE TO NW OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS AT TIMES. AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE GREATEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD SHRINK TO
OUR S/SE AREAS...CLOSEST TO THE SFC BOUNDARY.
ANOTHER MID LVL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SE TOWARD THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE SHOULD BE MUCH MORE MOISTURE STARVED
WITH LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL FORCING /SFC BOUNDARY/. THUS...NOT
EXPECTING NEAR THE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY THAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ESTABLISHED
BY THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A GENERALLY RAINFREE...YET
WARMING TIME PERIOD.
MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WILL EVENTUALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SAT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO A
RAINFREE PERIOD RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS CLOSER TO US...ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...WE WILL UNDERGO A
NOTICEABLE RETURN TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 90S NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY TOPPING OUT NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MOST OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HRRR MESOSCALE
MODEL HAS HAD A GOOD OVERALL HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THAT SOLUTION INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHC FOR TSTMS WILL BE OVER
KCGI/KPAH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KEVV 21Z-02Z FRAME.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...MEFFERT
AVIATION...MEFFERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1225 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
SHORT TERM WEATHER SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER UNCLEAR MAINLY
DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...AT THE SURFACE
THERE IS AN E-W STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF OUR
CWA...WE HAVE A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MULTIPLE RIPPLES OF
ENERGY UPSTREAM...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS BROUGHT
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY AS
THE H5 ENERGY TAPS INTO THE MOISTURE AT HAND. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
PEAK AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
PULLS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION. MODELS
APPEAR TO WASH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT AS IT APPROACHES...SO ITS HARD
TO SAY WHEN OR IF WE WILL HAVE A FROPA. EITHER WAY...PRECIP
CHANCES START TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE...MODELS ARE
CRANKING OUT A SMATTERING OF QPF ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION...SO
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TUESDAY NIGHT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR THE WORK WEEK...BUT DECREASES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS HAS MIGRATED EASTWARD MORE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS MITIGATING POPS FOR THE WEEK AND
PUT THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHICH ORIGINALLY
WAS PROGGED FOR THURSDAY TWO DAYS PAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE WORK WEEK AND DECREASED CERTAINTY FOR THE
WEEKEND. CONSIDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE RUN AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE DAYS. THIS WOULD PROBABLY ACCOUNT FOR
THE DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SCHEDULED FOR TODAY WHICH
FURTHER SUPPORTS THE EXTENDED STRATEGY. ONE THINGS THAT HAS REMAINED
CONSTANT IS THE WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED AFTER FROPA TODAY AND WE
CONTINUE TO EMBRACE THIS TREND WITH TEMPS HEADING TOWARD THE 90S AS
THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MOST OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HRRR MESOSCALE
MODEL HAS HAD A GOOD OVERALL HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
MORNING...SO HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THAT SOLUTION INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEST CHC FOR TSTMS WILL BE OVER
KCGI/KPAH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KEVV 21Z-02Z FRAME.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1225 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA BY TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1225 PM...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE OFF ACROSS NRN NY STATE
EAST INTO SW MAINE. THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A
STRONG THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE THERE WAS STRONG
SOLAR HEATING THIS MORNING. MUCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE AS OF NOON. THE THINKING REMAINS THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOVE
ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME ONLY
PLANNING TO MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE....RADAR...AND OBSERVATIONS.
938 AM UPDATE...LOW PRES IN SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS 125 MILES
NW OF QUEBEC CITY AT 13Z WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
AND ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR NRN AND WRN MAINE TOWARD
EVENING. THE AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH SBCAPES OF 700-1200 J/KG. THERE WILL BE
SOME SHORTWAVES THAT GET EJECTED IN THE FLOW AROUND A DEEP UPPER
LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY THAT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL TO
ENHANCE THE UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND CAUSE A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG/BORDERLINE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY WIND WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT ANY OF THE
STORMS THAT REALLY GET GOING COULD HAVE SOME LARGER HAIL. THE HRRR
HAD AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING THAT DID NOT MATERIALIZE TO THE EXTENT THE MODEL WAS
SHOWING. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS THIS MORNING AS TEMPS ARE
NOT RISING MUCH IN THE NORTH WHERE THE STRATUS IS THICKER. TEMPS
WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE SOUTH WHERE THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE. THE HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND KEPT AS IS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE LOW STRATUS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY MIDDAY AND THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT
THE MID SHIFTS HIGHS WILL REALIZED. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POP/SKY GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.
630 AM UPDATE:
AREAS OF DENSE FOG SEEN ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING PER THE BAR
HARBOR METARS AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOME WEBCAMS IN THAT AREA.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 950 MBS. PATCHY
FOG THROUGHOUT THE CWA MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL
BURN OFF AFTER 8AM. LATEST RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IN SOME LOCALES ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE
MTNS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN THE PRECIP CHANCES TO
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CARRIED A MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND THE CWA GETS INTO A PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE APCHG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
W/SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED W/TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. LLVLS WILL WARM AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY AID IN LLVL
INSTABILITY. ALOFT, THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH W/MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES(700/500MBS) RUNNING -2C/-19C RESPECTIVELY. MDL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS W/SB CAPES OF
600-900J/KG W/THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS
FCST TO BE AROUND 35 KTS. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES FCST TO BE 6.0-6.5
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSE TO 7.0 C/KM
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LLVL
MOISTURE IN PLACE W/SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ADD TO THE
MIX. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD THE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE ACTION
WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES ARE FCST
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO AROUND 60F. SW
WIND SHIFTING TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE OUT THE STABLE
MARINE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DECIDED TO
CARRY ENHANCED WORDING W/THE TSTMS INCLUDING THE BANGOR AND CALAIS
AREAS AND KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE COAST DUE TO A
SOUTH FLOW HOLDING ON LONGER. QPF WILL BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE GEM/NAM12 AND GFS
AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT TO 2 AREAS OF HEAVIER
AMOUNTS(0.25") W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE 2ND AREA OVER
THE DOWNEAST REGION.
THINGS WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/PATCHY
FOG. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS. FOLLOWED
THE GEM AND NAM12 FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HAVE
BLENDED THE GFS...SREF...NAM AND ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF GRIDS. WILL
USE A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GMOS FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE GRIDS WILL
INITIALIZE WITH GMOS AND WILL RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TWO
DEGREES BASED ON VERIFICATION. HAVE USED THE GEM FOR DEW POINT
GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THEN CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HAVE USED THE GMOS TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS. WILL ADJUST
POP AND SKY GRIDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED ALL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
HIGHER AND TO BETTER FIT THREE HOUR GMOS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMNINALS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
LIFT...BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AT LEAST MVFR BY 18Z. SCT
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KBGR AND KBHB. STRONG AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND SMALL WILL BE A CONCERN.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVE HEIGHTS ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 FEET AT THE EASTERN
MAINE SHELF THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT BY THIS
EVENING AS A SOUTHERLY FETCH SETS W/A SWELL COMPONENT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AVERAGING SPEEDS OF 10 KTS.
SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GFS40 AND WILL
USE 125 PERCENT OF THE MODEL BLEND FOR GUST SPEED. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SO LONG PERIOD WAVE WILL DOMINATE. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP
2-3 FEET/8 SECONDS ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEAST GROUP 1-2
FEET/10 SECONDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
939 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA BY TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
938 AM UPDATE...LOW PRES IN SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS 125 MILES
NW OF QUEBEC CITY AT 13Z WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
AND ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR NRN AND WRN MAINE TOWARD
EVENING. THE AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH SBCAPES OF 700-1200 J/KG. THERE WILL BE
SOME SHORTWAVES THAT GET EJECTED IN THE FLOW AROUND A DEEP UPPER
LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY THAT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL TO
ENHANCE THE UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND CAUSE A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG/BORDERLINE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY WIND WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT ANY OF THE
STORMS THAT REALLY GET GOING COULD HAVE SOME LARGER HAIL. THE HRRR
HAD AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING THAT DID NOT MATERIALIZE TO THE EXTENT THE MODEL WAS
SHOWING. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS THIS MORNING AS TEMPS ARE
NOT RISING MUCH IN THE NORTH WHERE THE STRATUS IS THICKER. TEMPS
WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE SOUTH WHERE THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE. THE HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND KEPT AS IS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE LOW STRATUS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY MIDDAY AND THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT
THE MID SHIFTS HIGHS WILL REALIZED. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POP/SKY GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.
630 AM UPDATE:
AREAS OF DENSE FOG SEEN ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING PER THE BAR
HARBOR METARS AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOME WEBCAMS IN THAT AREA.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 950 MBS. PATCHY
FOG THROUGHOUT THE CWA MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL
BURN OFF AFTER 8AM. LATEST RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IN SOME LOCALES ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE
MTNS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN THE PRECIP CHANCES TO
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CARRIED A MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND THE CWA GETS INTO A PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE APCHG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
W/SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED W/TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. LLVLS WILL WARM AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY AID IN LLVL
INSTABILITY. ALOFT, THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH W/MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES(700/500MBS) RUNNING -2C/-19C RESPECTIVELY. MDL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS W/SB CAPES OF
600-900J/KG W/THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS
FCST TO BE AROUND 35 KTS. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES FCST TO BE 6.0-6.5
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSE TO 7.0 C/KM
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LLVL
MOISTURE IN PLACE W/SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ADD TO THE
MIX. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD THE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE ACTION
WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES ARE FCST
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO AROUND 60F. SW
WIND SHIFTING TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE OUT THE STABLE
MARINE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DECIDED TO
CARRY ENHANCED WORDING W/THE TSTMS INCLUDING THE BANGOR AND CALAIS
AREAS AND KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE COAST DUE TO A
SOUTH FLOW HOLDING ON LONGER. QPF WILL BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE GEM/NAM12 AND GFS
AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT TO 2 AREAS OF HEAVIER
AMOUNTS(0.25") W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE 2ND AREA OVER
THE DOWNEAST REGION.
THINGS WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/PATCHY
FOG. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS. FOLLOWED
THE GEM AND NAM12 FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HAVE
BLENDED THE GFS...SREF...NAM AND ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF GRIDS. WILL
USE A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GMOS FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE GRIDS WILL
INITIALIZE WITH GMOS AND WILL RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TWO
DEGREES BASED ON VERIFICATION. HAVE USED THE GEM FOR DEW POINT
GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THEN CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HAVE USED THE GMOS TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS. WILL ADJUST
POP AND SKY GRIDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED ALL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
HIGHER AND TO BETTER FIT THREE HOUR GMOS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMNINALS WILL IMPRVE TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY WITH VFR AT KBGR AND KBHB. TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS. STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND SMALL WILL BE A
CONCERN.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVE HEIGHTS ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 FEET AT THE EASTERN
MAINE SHELF THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT BY THIS
EVENING AS A SOUTHERLY FETCH SETS W/A SWELL COMPONENT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AVERAGING SPEEDS OF 10 KTS.
SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GFS40 AND WILL
USE 125 PERCENT OF THE MODEL BLEND FOR GUST SPEED. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SO LONG PERIOD WAVE WILL DOMINATE. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP
2-3 FEET/8 SECONDS ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEAST GROUP 1-2
FEET/10 SECONDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
323 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA BY TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE W/STRATUS AND RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. STEADY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED TO NERN
MAINE AND WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST RADAR
MOSAIC. 00Z UA SHOWED A NICE JETLET AT 700MBS ENHANCING THE
RAINFALL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MAINE W/AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AREAS AS OF
06Z. TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS(SOUTH OF THE FRONT) AND IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE IN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONT. THE REGIONAL GEM AND RUC WERE HANDLING THIS LATEST
SITUATION THE BEST AND THIS HOW THE FORECAST WAS RUN THROUGH THIS
MORNING W/CLOUDS, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME FOG.
THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND THE CWA GETS INTO A PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE APCHG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
W/SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED W/TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LLVLS WILL WARM AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY AID IN LLVL INSTABILITY.
ALOFT, THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH W/MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES(700/500MBS)
RUNNING -2C/-19C RESPECTIVELY. MDL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS
SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS W/SB CAPES OF 600-900J/KG W/THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FCST TO BE AROUND 35 KTS. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
FCST TO BE 6.0-6.5 ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
CLOSE TO 7.0 C/KM ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE W/SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
ADD TO THE MIX. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD THE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS IN FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE
ACTION WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES ARE FCST
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO AROUND 60F. SW
WIND SHIFTING TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE OUT THE STABLE
MARINE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DECIDED TO
CARRY ENHANCED WORDING W/THE TSTMS INCLUDING THE BANGOR AND CALAIS
AREAS AND KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE COAST DUE TO A
SOUTH FLOW HOLDING ON LONGER. QPF WILL BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE GEM/NAM12 AND GFS
AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT TO 2 AREAS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS(0.25")
W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE 2ND AREA OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION.
THINGS WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/PATCHY
FOG. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS. FOLLOWED
THE GEM AND NAM12 FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HAVE
BLENDED THE GFS...SREF...NAM AND ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF GRIDS. WILL
USE A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GMOS FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE GRIDS WILL
INITIALIZE WITH GMOS AND WILL RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TWO
DEGREES BASED ON VERIFICATION. HAVE USED THE GEM FOR DEW POINT
GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THEN CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HAVE USED THE GMOS TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS. WILL ADJUST
POP AND SKY GRIDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED ALL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
HIGHER AND TO BETTER FIT THREE HOUR GMOS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. WIND
SHEAR AND SMALL WILL BE A CONCERN. DAYCREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE AWW FOR BIA THIS AFTERNOON IF TSTMS FIRE.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FOR THIS TERM. WAVE HEIGHTS WERE ADJUSTED
TO BRING THEM UP A FOOT W/A FCST OF 5 FT BY THIS EVENING AS A SOUTHERLY
FETCH SETS W/A SWELL COMPONENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AVERAGING SPEEDS
OF 10 KTS. DECIDED ON THE NAM12/GFS40 AND GEM FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS.
SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GFS40 AND WILL
USE 125 PERCENT OF THE MODEL BLEND FOR GUST SPEED. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SO LONG PERIOD WAVE WILL DOMINATE. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP
2-3 FEET/8 SECONDS ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEAST GROUP 1-2
FEET/10 SECONDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
515 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING GENERALLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FCST UPDATED TO REFLECT ONGOING SVR TSTMS IN ERN OH. HIGHER MSTR
CONTENT HAS PROMOTED STRONGER INSTBY SUCH THAT A FEW TSTMS WERE
ABLE TO STRENGTHEN THRU THE MID-LVL WARM AIR. HAIL AND WIND HAVE
BEEN REPORTED. POPS AND QPF WERE INCRD. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. 850MB CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE HAS WEAKENED MOSTLY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO REMAINING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
HAS BEEN CO-LOCATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. ALTHOUGH A THERMAL GRADIENT IS LACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT
CAN BE MORE EASILY DEPICTED BY SURFACE DEW POINT AND EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. UPSTREAM...SOME LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTION (LAKE ERIE) WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
SETUP A CONVERGENCE ZONE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THERE ARE A
FEW CONTRIBUTORS HAT HAVE LED TO THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. THESE INCLUDE...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG SBCAPE
FOR LOCATIONS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH...CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST WITH
ONGOING DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NORTHERN OHIO. WITH THIS AND THE 14Z
HRRR IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH SCHC INCREASING TO CHC POP THROUGH
MUCH THE EVENING.
TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FROM DIURNAL
ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE SERIES OF BOUNDARIES LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD AS A
FRONT. THUS...THE FORCING PROVIDED FROM THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW
FOR THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA NOCTURNALLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MET...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN EASTERN OHIO...SW
PA...AND NORTHERN WV TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
AS A FUNCTION OF DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE DAY.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO NOT SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THUS THE CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM SEEMS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14-15C
LEADING TO FORECAST HIGH NEAR 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT WILL CONT TO SAG SEWD TUE EVE AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS. NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ASSOCIATED
H5 SHRTWV TROF AND MAINTAINS PCPN THRU WED MRNG IN THE MTNS...BUT
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...ENDING PCPN BY LATE TUE
NGT. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED THRU WED MRNG TO REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY.
AMID BUILDING SFC HIPRES...POST-FRONTAL AMS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT. AS
A RESULT...INSTBY WILL BE LMTD TO HIGHER TERRAIN WED-THU. THUS...
POPS WERE INCLUDED ONLY IN ZONES WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY CNVCTN
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
POST-FRONTAL MAXIMA WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
MINIMA WILL BE DICTATED BY DEG OF DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS...LKLY IN
THE 50S. UPDATE...KRAMAR
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONT TO DEPICT DVLPMNT OF A BROAD SRN CONUS RIDGE FOR THE
LONG TERM PD WITH GENL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER TEMPS ARE THUS IN STORE FOR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION
WITH WEEKEND READINGS PROGGED WELL INTO THE 80S AS PER HIGHER MOS
GUIDANCE.
GRADUALLY INCRSG POPS...TO CHC NMBRS FOR THE WEEKEND...WERE ALSO
INCLUDED...BUT TIMING WL BE DEPENDENT ON SHRTWV PASSAGE ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT PARAMETER IS
MINIMAL AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING TONIGHT.
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...ALTHOUGH IF A SHOWER/STORM HITS A
TERMINAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10KTS.
WITH A FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
POINT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT KMGW/KZZV WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AN END. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
315 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING GENERALLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. 850MB CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE HAS WEAKENED MOSTLY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO REMAINING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
HAS BEEN CO-LOCATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. ALTHOUGH A THERMAL GRADIENT IS LACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT
CAN BE MORE EASILY DEPICTED BY SURFACE DEW POINT AND EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. UPSTREAM...SOME LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTION (LAKE ERIE) WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
SETUP A CONVERGENCE ZONE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THERE ARE A
FEW CONTRIBUTORS HAT HAVE LED TO THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. THESE INCLUDE...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG SBCAPE
FOR LOCATIONS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH...CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST WITH
ONGOING DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NORTHERN OHIO. WITH THIS AND THE 14Z
HRRR IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH SCHC INCREASING TO CHC POP THROUGH
MUCH THE EVENING.
TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FROM DIURNAL
ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE SERIES OF BOUNDARIES LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD AS A
FRONT. THUS...THE FORCING PROVIDED FROM THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW
FOR THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA NOCTURNALLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MET...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN EASTERN OHIO...SW
PA...AND NORTHERN WV TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
AS A FUNCTION OF DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE DAY.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO NOT SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THUS THE CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM SEEMS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14-15C
LEADING TO FORECAST HIGH NEAR 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT WILL CONT TO SAG SEWD TUE EVE AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LINGERING SHWRS AND TSTMS. NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ASSOCIATED
H5 SHRTWV TROF AND MAINTAINS PCPN THRU WED MRNG IN THE MTNS...BUT
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...ENDING PCPN BY LATE TUE
NGT. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED THRU WED MRNG TO REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY.
AMID BUILDING SFC HIPRES...POST-FRONTAL AMS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT. AS
A RESULT...INSTBY WILL BE LMTD TO HIGHER TERRAIN WED-THU. THUS...
POPS WERE INCLUDED ONLY IN ZONES WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY CNVCTN
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
POST-FRONTAL MAXIMA WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
MINIMA WILL BE DICTATED BY DEG OF DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS...LKLY IN
THE 50S. UPDATE...KRAMAR
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONT TO DEPICT DVLPMNT OF A BROAD SRN CONUS RIDGE FOR THE
LONG TERM PD WITH GENL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER TEMPS ARE THUS IN STORE FOR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION
WITH WEEKEND READINGS PROGGED WELL INTO THE 80S AS PER HIGHER MOS
GUIDANCE.
GRADUALLY INCRSG POPS...TO CHC NMBRS FOR THE WEEKEND...WERE ALSO
INCLUDED...BUT TIMING WL BE DEPENDENT ON SHRTWV PASSAGE ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT PARAMETER IS
MINIMAL AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING TONIGHT.
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...ALTHOUGH IF A SHOWER/STORM HITS A
TERMINAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10KTS.
WITH A FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
POINT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT KMGW/KZZV WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AN END. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
250 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...ALLOWING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. 850MB CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE HAS WEAKENED MOSTLY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO REMAINING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
HAS BEEN CO-LOCATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. ALTHOUGH A THERMAL GRADIENT IS LACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT
CAN BE MORE EASILY DEPICTED BY SURFACE DEW POINT AND EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS. UPSTREAM...SOME LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTION (LAKE ERIE) WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
SETUP A CONVERGENCE ZONE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THERE ARE A
FEW CONTRIBUTORS HAT HAVE LED TO THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. THESE INCLUDE...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG SBCAPE
FOR LOCATIONS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH...CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST WITH
ONGOING DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NORTHERN OHIO. WITH THIS AND THE 14Z
HRRR IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH SCHC INCREASING TO CHC POP THROUGH
MUCH THE EVENING.
TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FROM DIURNAL
ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE SERIES OF BOUNDARIES LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD AS A
FRONT. THUS...THE FORCING PROVIDED FROM THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW
FOR THE CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA NOCTURNALLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MET...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN EASTERN OHIO...SW
PA...AND NORTHERN WV TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
AS A FUNCTION OF DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE DAY.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES STILL APPEAR TO NOT SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THUS THE CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM SEEMS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 850MB TEMPS AROUND 14-15C
LEADING TO FORECAST HIGH NEAR 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND SUPPRESS PCPN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL AIR UNDER
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LIMIT TEMP RECOVERY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MDLS CONT TO DEPICT DVLPMNT OF A BROAD SRN CONUS RIDGE FOR THE
LONG TERM PD WITH GENL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER TEMPS ARE THUS IN STORE FOR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION
WITH WEEKEND READINGS PROGGED WELL INTO THE 80S AS PER HIGHER MOS
GUIDANCE.
GRADUALLY INCRSG POPS...TO CHC NMBRS FOR THE WEEKEND...WERE ALSO
INCLUDED...BUT TIMING WL BE DEPENDANT ON SHRTWV PASSAGE ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT PARAMETER IS
MINIMAL AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING TONIGHT.
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE...ALTHOUGH IF A SHOWER/STORM HITS A
TERMINAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10KTS.
WITH A FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS
POINT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT KMGW/KZZV WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AN END. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...WOODRUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
128 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...ALLOWING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO DECREASE
POPS SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RAP MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. 850MB CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE HAS WEAKENED MOSTLY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO REMAINING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
HAS BEEN CO-LOCATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE. ALTHOUGH A THERMAL GRADIENT IS LACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT
CAN BE MORE EASILY DEPICTED BY SURFACE DEW POINT AND EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THERE ARE TWO
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTORS THAT HAVE LED TO THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG SBCAPE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. WITH THIS AND THE 14Z HRRR IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH SCHC
POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR TEMPS...UTILIZED RECENT
TRENDS IN OBS ALONG WITH RAP 850MB TEMPS TO GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
A MAV/MET BLEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WV/MD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED TONIGHT...BUT SHIFTED SWD INTO TUESDAY AS
SECONDARY FRONT/OUTFLOW PROGRESS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/JET STREAK
CROSS THE REGION.
DRY HIGH PRES WL BLD THEREAFTER AND SUPPRESS PCPN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL AIR UNDR TROFG ALOFT WL LIMIT
TEMP RECOVERY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MDLS CONT TO DEPICT DVLPMNT OF A BROAD SRN CONUS RIDGE FOR THE
LONG TERM PD WITH GENL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER TEMPS ARE THUS IN STORE FOR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION
WITH WEEKEND READINGS PROGGED WELL INTO THE 80S AS PER HIGHER MOS
GUIDANCE.
GRADUALLY INCRSG POPS...TO CHC NMBRS FOR THE WEEKEND...WERE ALSO
INCLUDED...BUT TIMING WL BE DEPENDANT ON SHRTWV PASSAGE ACRS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT PARAMETER IS
MINIMAL AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING TONIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z AT THIS
MOMENT AS COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE...ALTHOUGH IF A SHOWER/STORM
HITS A TERMINAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10KTS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT KMGW/KZZV WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AN END. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOODRUM
NEAR TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...WOODRUM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1203 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A RIDGE
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM JAMES BAY TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION (PWAT AROUND 0.50 OR ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL)...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ONLY SUPPORTED A PATCH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SE
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT RETURN SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A BIT MORE MIXING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR WEST AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 INLAND TO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
WEDNESDAY...AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...SRLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB
WILL SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS READINGS IN THE 60S. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E
AXIS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA WITH WEAK SHRTWVS IN NW FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD AS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FOR THE TIMING OF THE POPS AS IT MOVES IN.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY AND
WILL COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRENGTH OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL HEATING...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ON THE BOUNDARY...AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KTS SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME TILTING OF THE UPDRAFTS. HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AS NCAPE VALUES AROUND .1
SHOULD KEEP ANY HAIL FROM GROWING TOO LARGE. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL...CLOSEST
TO LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE AND THEN FOLLOW THE STORM MOTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. FROM THIS LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL LOOKS TO
SETUP FROM THE STALLED TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN LOCATED AROUND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT THIS
LARGE SCALE PATTERN...IT IS VERY CONDUCIVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BUT TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVES AND POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL
GRADUALLY GROW FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PULLS PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. USING ML CAPE VALUES TO REMOVE SOME OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST BIASES IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE
ARE STILL SOME DECENT VALUES FOR U.P. STANDARDS. FRIDAY THEY LOOK TO
PEAK IN THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE WEST AND THEN GROW TO
1500-2500 J/KG FOR SAT/SUN DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT...WHILE
THE GEM/ECMWF TRY TO KEEP THE FRONT A TOUCH SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT
WILL PROBABLY BE A VARIETY OF THUNDERSTORM TYPES DURING THAT PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING EAST /VIA FORWARD PROP CORFIDI VECTORS/
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH THE
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND LIMITED INHIBITION...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERNS WOULD BE IF THE RIDGE AND
WARM FRONT BUILD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SLIDE MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN OR THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF IT
BECOMING HUNG UP SOUTH OF THE AREA /ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTION HOLDS
THEM SOUTH/. WITH THE GROWING CONFIDENCE...WILL ADD A MENTION OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND IN BOTH THE HWO AND EHWO. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...AS
PWAT VALUES RISE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS AREA.
IT WILL BE PRETTY HUMID FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND /DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S/ AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES
NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...WOULD
HAVE TO BUMP TEMPS UP WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY REALLY GROWS HEADING INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...AS A LOT
DEPENDS ON THE WEEKEND WEATHER. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS IS
THAT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE AREA WILL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WAVES ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN PLACE FOR THAT PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY BRING AN END TO THE WARM/HUMID
WEATHER.
FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ON LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND IT TO AREAS OR EVEN DENSE FOG AS IT
NEARS. ALSO...ADDED A MENTION OF FOG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE
AREAS STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS START TO AFFECT THAT AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN
WINDS BELOW 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE POSSIBLE
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION FROM AFTER WEDNESDAY...WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A RIDGE
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM JAMES BAY TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION (PWAT AROUND 0.50 OR ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL)...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ONLY SUPPORTED A PATCH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SE
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT RETURN SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A BIT MORE MIXING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR WEST AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 INLAND TO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
WEDNESDAY...AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...SRLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB
WILL SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS READINGS IN THE 60S. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E
AXIS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA WITH WEAK SHRTWVS IN NW FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD AS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FOR THE TIMING OF THE POPS AS IT MOVES IN.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY AND
WILL COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRENGTH OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL HEATING...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ON THE BOUNDARY...AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KTS SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME TILTING OF THE UPDRAFTS. HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AS NCAPE VALUES AROUND .1
SHOULD KEEP ANY HAIL FROM GROWING TOO LARGE. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL...CLOSEST
TO LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE AND THEN FOLLOW THE STORM MOTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. FROM THIS LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL LOOKS TO
SETUP FROM THE STALLED TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN LOCATED AROUND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT THIS
LARGE SCALE PATTERN...IT IS VERY CONDUCIVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BUT TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVES AND POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL
GRADUALLY GROW FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PULLS PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. USING ML CAPE VALUES TO REMOVE SOME OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST BIASES IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE
ARE STILL SOME DECENT VALUES FOR U.P. STANDARDS. FRIDAY THEY LOOK TO
PEAK IN THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE WEST AND THEN GROW TO
1500-2500 J/KG FOR SAT/SUN DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT...WHILE
THE GEM/ECMWF TRY TO KEEP THE FRONT A TOUCH SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT
WILL PROBABLY BE A VARIETY OF THUNDERSTORM TYPES DURING THAT PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING EAST /VIA FORWARD PROP CORFIDI VECTORS/
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH THE
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND LIMITED INHIBITION...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERNS WOULD BE IF THE RIDGE AND
WARM FRONT BUILD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SLIDE MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN OR THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF IT
BECOMING HUNG UP SOUTH OF THE AREA /ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTION HOLDS
THEM SOUTH/. WITH THE GROWING CONFIDENCE...WILL ADD A MENTION OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND IN BOTH THE HWO AND EHWO. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...AS
PWAT VALUES RISE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS AREA.
IT WILL BE PRETTY HUMID FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND /DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S/ AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES
NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...WOULD
HAVE TO BUMP TEMPS UP WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY REALLY GROWS HEADING INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...AS A LOT
DEPENDS ON THE WEEKEND WEATHER. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS IS
THAT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE AREA WILL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WAVES ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN PLACE FOR THAT PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY BRING AN END TO THE WARM/HUMID
WEATHER.
FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ON LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND IT TO AREAS OR EVEN DENSE FOG AS IT
NEARS. ALSO...ADDED A MENTION OF FOG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE
AREAS STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS START TO AFFECT THAT AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN
WINDS BELOW 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE POSSIBLE
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION FROM AFTER WEDNESDAY...WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
453 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL CONVECTION WAS OVER
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE WAS INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
FOG EARLIER TODAY AND CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK LAKE BREEZES. THESE
INITIAL SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
CWA...BUT ARE SEEING SOME SHOWERS IN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS
FAR DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR EVEN THOUGH THERE IS STRONG
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RAP ANALYZED SB CAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. BUT WITH THE INVERTED V LOOK TO THE RAP
SOUNDINGS...ML CAPES ARE STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE 250-500 J/KG.
THIS DRY AIR CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE DEWPOINTS /UPPER 40S/ AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN SOME
SIGNIFICANT JUMPS IN THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AS THE
LAKE BREEZES HAVE MOVED IN AND OUT OF SOME OF THE SITES. FARTHER
WEST...A PERSISTENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVED INTO WESTERN
GOGEBIC COUNTY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND DID PRODUCE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40KTS EVEN THOUGH THE CLUSTER IS DIMINISHING. THIS ISN/T TOO
UNREASONABLE WITH CURRENT DCAPE VALUES OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
AROUND 800-1000 J/KG AND THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...DUE TO ONE PIECE OF SHEARED OFF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AS THE STORM MOTION IS AROUND 40KTS.
THE AREA THAT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS THE
REMNANT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS STARTED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE CANADA/ND/MN BORDER AND HAS SPARKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE. WITH THE
STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 30-35KTS AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT THOSE SHOWERS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT ON THE EASTERN CWA...AS
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
FROM THUNDER BAY AND HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THEY WILL MAKE IT BEFORE
DIMINISHING. WILL HAVE LOWER POPS THAN OVER THE WEST...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY. AN EARLIER UPDATE COVERED THE
TIMING WELL OVER THE WEST AND HAVE JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
MATCH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE HIGHER REACHES
OF THE SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY. THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE COVERAGE/TIMING WOULD BE BETTER
REFLECTED IN THE SCATTERED WORDING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DRY
AIR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS TO
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST THREAT WILL BE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE THE 850-700/500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
THE STEEPEST...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA. HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVER THE SW
HALF OF THE CWA...AS THEY HAVE THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS TO PRODUCE THE HIGHER
DCAPE VALUES.
THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AND THE REST OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY
MORNING...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT IS ALSO WHERE
THE BEST 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONV IS LOCATED EVEN THOUGH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE SLOWLY DIMINISHED THE
THUNDER THREAT OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER FORCING IS LOCATED. WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH DECENT MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT AS THAT
CONVERGENCE OCCURS...THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE THE WINDS BECOME UPSLOPE FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.
THE LARGER SCALE FORCING SHOULD DEPART THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CWA AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEY WILL BE LEFT WITH ANY SHOWERS
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...LOW CLOUDS SEEN IN CENTRAL ONTARIO/MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
MODELS STRUGGLING WITH HOW LOW THE CLOUDS WILL BE...BUT EITHER WAY
A CLOUDY START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PRODUCE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TOMORROW...WITH 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
TAKING A LOOK AT FCST SOUNDINGS...TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS IN THE SKY. WILL KEEP
THE 0 POPS GOING. OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL LAKE BREEZES...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO MIX UP TO 800MB...OR HIGHER...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST OF UPPER MI...FIRE CONCERNS
SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK HOWEVER WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASED
W-SW FLOW THROUGH 750MB...AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE FROM A CWA AVERAGE OF 7C
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 12C BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A FEW PESKY WAVES IN THE MEAN FLOW TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ONE WILL LINE UP WITH THE
NEARING OF A WEAK SFC LOW PUSHING OVER ONTARIO WEDNESDAY...AND INTO
QUEBEC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE PRETTY WASHED OUT AS IT NEARS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MN AND
WESTERN WI WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE WINDING DOWN AS THEY
HEAD TOWARD UPPER MI. 200-500 J/KG CAPE VALUES OVER FAR W UPPER MI
BETWEEN 18Z WED AND 00Z THUR SHOULD BE ALL BUT GONE BY 06Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED...WITH ANY GOLF MOISTURE STUCK
ACROSS THE GULF STATES. EXPECT THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
CLOUD COVER AND A WIND SHIFT...AND EVEN THROUGH WE DO HAVE 30-40
PERCENT POPS THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WITH
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF N AND CENTRAL ONTARIO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE 500MB LOW STUCK SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SFC
LOW ORGANIZING OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WENT AHEAD AND
BROKE UP THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD TO INCLUDE A BIT MORE DRYING
WEATHER THURSDAY EVENING.
THE CLOSEST THE SFC LOW WILL LIKELY GET TO UPPER MI WILL BE MN AND S
WI...ON SATURDAY. STILL...MUCH OF OUR WEATHER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL REVOLVED AROUND THE 500MB FLOW WITH SEVERAL SMALLER
SCALE DISTURBANCES RESULTING IN A FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THEY WILL REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO TIME UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FOR KIWD AND POSSIBLY
KSAW OVERNIGHT. LIFR CLOUD DECK HAS ALREADY FORMED AT KCMX AND IT
LOOKS LIKE IT/S BEGINNING TO FORM AT KSAW IN UPSLOPE NE FLOW SO WILL
INCLUDE LIFR CLOUDS IN AT BOTH SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE IFR
TO LIFR CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO FORM AT KIWD BY 10Z AS WINDS SHIFT
TO ONSHORE NE DIRECTION. LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BY LATE MON
MORNING BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...LEADING TO WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A POCKET OF FOG OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR /NEAR AND EAST OF GRAND MARAIS MI/ THAT HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING AND MOVING AROUND TODAY. WOULD EXPECT THE DRY AIR
TO CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT IT THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS SOME
CONCERN IT COULD EXPAND WITH RAIN OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF FOG
DOES LINGER TONIGHT...IT WILL CLEAR OUT MON MORNING AS MUCH DRIER AIR
SURGES S INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
441 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL CONVECTION WAS OVER
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE WAS INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
FOG EARLIER TODAY AND CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK LAKE BREEZES. THESE
INITIAL SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
CWA...BUT ARE SEEING SOME SHOWERS IN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS
FAR DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR EVEN THOUGH THERE IS STRONG
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RAP ANALYZED SB CAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. BUT WITH THE INVERTED V LOOK TO THE RAP
SOUNDINGS...ML CAPES ARE STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE 250-500 J/KG.
THIS DRY AIR CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE DEWPOINTS /UPPER 40S/ AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN SOME
SIGNIFICANT JUMPS IN THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AS THE
LAKE BREEZES HAVE MOVED IN AND OUT OF SOME OF THE SITES. FARTHER
WEST...A PERSISTENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVED INTO WESTERN
GOGEBIC COUNTY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND DID PRODUCE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40KTS EVEN THOUGH THE CLUSTER IS DIMINISHING. THIS ISN/T TOO
UNREASONABLE WITH CURRENT DCAPE VALUES OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
AROUND 800-1000 J/KG AND THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...DUE TO ONE PIECE OF SHEARED OFF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AS THE STORM MOTION IS AROUND 40KTS.
THE AREA THAT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS THE
REMNANT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS STARTED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE CANADA/ND/MN BORDER AND HAS SPARKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE. WITH THE
STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 30-35KTS AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT THOSE SHOWERS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT ON THE EASTERN CWA...AS
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
FROM THUNDER BAY AND HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THEY WILL MAKE IT BEFORE
DIMINISHING. WILL HAVE LOWER POPS THAN OVER THE WEST...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY. AN EARLIER UPDATE COVERED THE
TIMING WELL OVER THE WEST AND HAVE JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
MATCH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE HIGHER REACHES
OF THE SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY. THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE COVERAGE/TIMING WOULD BE BETTER
REFLECTED IN THE SCATTERED WORDING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DRY
AIR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS TO
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST THREAT WILL BE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE THE 850-700/500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
THE STEEPEST...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA. HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVER THE SW
HALF OF THE CWA...AS THEY HAVE THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS TO PRODUCE THE HIGHER
DCAPE VALUES.
THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AND THE REST OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY
MORNING...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT IS ALSO WHERE
THE BEST 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONV IS LOCATED EVEN THOUGH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE SLOWLY DIMINISHED THE
THUNDER THREAT OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER FORCING IS LOCATED. WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH DECENT MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT AS THAT
CONVERGENCE OCCURS...THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE THE WINDS BECOME UPSLOPE FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.
THE LARGER SCALE FORCING SHOULD DEPART THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CWA AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEY WILL BE LEFT WITH ANY SHOWERS
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...LOW CLOUDS SEEN IN CENTRAL ONTARIO/MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
MODELS STRUGGLING WITH HOW LOW THE CLOUDS WILL BE...BUT EITHER WAY
A CLOUDY START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PRODUCE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TOMORROW...WITH 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BTWN A RIDGE DRIFTING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS AND
A BROAD TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK...IT WILL LOOSE AMPLITUDE
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING E FROM A TROF OVER THE NW CONUS BEGINS
TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE. THE NW FLOW EARLY ON WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
FOR UPPER MI. MOVING INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...PATTERN SHOULD
BECOME ACTIVE WITH DECENT PCPN PROSPECTS AS SHORTWAVES TRACK E
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLEST
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEHIND SHORTWAVE PASSING
TONIGHT/MON. THEN...DESPITE NW FLOW...TEMPS THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SINCE ERN
TROF WILL NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE INTO THE ERN CONUS...
RESULTING IN COOLER AIR STAYING E AND NE OF THE AREA. TEMPS LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMER/MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. COULD BE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID FOR A DAY OR TWO.
BEGINNING MON NIGHT...A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON THE WAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. WITH VERY DRY COLUMN (PRECIPITABLE
WATER 30-50PCT OF NORMAL) AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM...WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE LOW END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE ARRIVING
DURING THE NIGHT. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...THERE
IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST IN THE USUAL COLDER AREAS.
SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING.
RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT SITE ON THE 18TH IS 38F. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT RECORD COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE SETTLED OVER THE UPPER LAKES TUE...PROVIDING A
DRY/PLEASANT MID JUNE DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER LINGERING
VERY DRY COLUMN. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE...KEEPING LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE AFTN. GIVEN AVBL DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN...DWPTS
SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 30S...POSSIBLY LOWER...IN THE INTERIOR...
RESULTING IN MIN RH DOWN AROUND 25PCT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME LOCATIONS FALL TO AROUND 20PCT. FORTUNATELY...LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WX CONCERNS IN CHECK.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AND STILL CONTINUES TO HINT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE...PASSING JUST N OF UPPER MI LATE WED/WED
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM ALL MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE...IT STILL APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME PCPN AT SOME POINT
LATE WED/WED NIGHT. NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE
WARRANTED SINCE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO THE N AND SINCE COVERAGE
WILL BE LOW IF PCPN DOES OCCUR. IF WAVE IS FASTER AND ARRIVES DURING
PEAK HEATING WED...PCPN CHC WILL BE GREATER...BUT WOULD STILL NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT COVERAGE.
ON THU...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBTLE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY THE AREA WED NIGHT TO HANG UP OVER/NEAR
UPPER MI...AND THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION THU AFTN.
MAINTAINED SCHC/LOW CHC POPS IN FCST.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND COULD
BECOME ACTIVE AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TO THE GREAT
LAKES...SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE THAT WAS SHIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE AREA. SIGNAL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST MID
RANGE CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF FRI/SAT. SFC HIGH PRES
MAY BEGIN TO BUILD S TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES SUN IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC...SO PCPN CHANCES MAY
DIMINISH ON SUN. OVERALL...THERE APPEARS TO BE DECENT POTENTIAL THAT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME RAIN AT SOME POINT BTWN FRI AND SUN.
&&
FOR THE EXTENDED...
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER WITH
PREDOMINATE LIGHT N/NERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY /AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/...WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR DUE TO NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE.
MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE RIDGE...HOWEVER DISAGREEMENTS COME IN TO PLAY ON THE PATH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE. GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS HAVE THE SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN GETTING PUSHED TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRY AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE. ECMWF
SOLUTION ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MOVING IT NORTHEAST ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
GFS/GEM...UPPER MI SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES NEAR THE WI BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING FURTHER
INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH
THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES SAT NIGHT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS...BUT
STILL HOVERING ON THE FREEZING LINE...SO SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH RAIN
IN AFFECTED AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN FROM CANADA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FOR KIWD AND POSSIBLY
KSAW OVERNIGHT. LIFR CLOUD DECK HAS ALREADY FORMED AT KCMX AND IT
LOOKS LIKE IT/S BEGINNING TO FORM AT KSAW IN UPSLOPE NE FLOW SO WILL
INCLUDE LIFR CLOUDS IN AT BOTH SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE IFR
TO LIFR CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO FORM AT KIWD BY 10Z AS WINDS SHIFT
TO ONSHORE NE DIRECTION. LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BY LATE MON
MORNING BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...LEADING TO WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A POCKET OF FOG OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR /NEAR AND EAST OF GRAND MARAIS MI/ THAT HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING AND MOVING AROUND TODAY. WOULD EXPECT THE DRY AIR
TO CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT IT THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS SOME
CONCERN IT COULD EXPAND WITH RAIN OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF FOG
DOES LINGER TONIGHT...IT WILL CLEAR OUT MON MORNING AS MUCH DRIER AIR
SURGES S INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
EXTENDED...
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
148 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL CONVECTION WAS OVER
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE WAS INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
FOG EARLIER TODAY AND CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK LAKE BREEZES. THESE
INITIAL SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
CWA...BUT ARE SEEING SOME SHOWERS IN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THUS
FAR DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR EVEN THOUGH THERE IS STRONG
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RAP ANALYZED SB CAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG. BUT WITH THE INVERTED V LOOK TO THE RAP
SOUNDINGS...ML CAPES ARE STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE 250-500 J/KG.
THIS DRY AIR CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE DEWPOINTS /UPPER 40S/ AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN SOME
SIGNIFICANT JUMPS IN THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AS THE
LAKE BREEZES HAVE MOVED IN AND OUT OF SOME OF THE SITES. FARTHER
WEST...A PERSISTENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVED INTO WESTERN
GOGEBIC COUNTY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND DID PRODUCE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40KTS EVEN THOUGH THE CLUSTER IS DIMINISHING. THIS ISN/T TOO
UNREASONABLE WITH CURRENT DCAPE VALUES OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
AROUND 800-1000 J/KG AND THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...DUE TO ONE PIECE OF SHEARED OFF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AS THE STORM MOTION IS AROUND 40KTS.
THE AREA THAT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS THE
REMNANT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS STARTED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE CANADA/ND/MN BORDER AND HAS SPARKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE. WITH THE
STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 30-35KTS AND THE TROUGH SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT THOSE SHOWERS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT ON THE EASTERN CWA...AS
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
FROM THUNDER BAY AND HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THEY WILL MAKE IT BEFORE
DIMINISHING. WILL HAVE LOWER POPS THAN OVER THE WEST...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY. AN EARLIER UPDATE COVERED THE
TIMING WELL OVER THE WEST AND HAVE JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
MATCH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE HIGHER REACHES
OF THE SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY. THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN...BUT THE COVERAGE/TIMING WOULD BE BETTER
REFLECTED IN THE SCATTERED WORDING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DRY
AIR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS TO
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST THREAT WILL BE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE THE 850-700/500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
THE STEEPEST...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA. HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVER THE SW
HALF OF THE CWA...AS THEY HAVE THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS TO PRODUCE THE HIGHER
DCAPE VALUES.
THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AND THE REST OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY
MORNING...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THAT IS ALSO WHERE
THE BEST 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONV IS LOCATED EVEN THOUGH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE SLOWLY DIMINISHED THE
THUNDER THREAT OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER FORCING IS LOCATED. WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH DECENT MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT AS THAT
CONVERGENCE OCCURS...THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE THE WINDS BECOME UPSLOPE FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME.
THE LARGER SCALE FORCING SHOULD DEPART THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CWA AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEY WILL BE LEFT WITH ANY SHOWERS
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...LOW CLOUDS SEEN IN CENTRAL ONTARIO/MANITOBA THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
MODELS STRUGGLING WITH HOW LOW THE CLOUDS WILL BE...BUT EITHER WAY
A CLOUDY START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PRODUCE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TOMORROW...WITH 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BTWN A RIDGE DRIFTING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS AND
A BROAD TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK...IT WILL LOOSE AMPLITUDE
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING E FROM A TROF OVER THE NW CONUS BEGINS
TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE. THE NW FLOW EARLY ON WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
FOR UPPER MI. MOVING INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...PATTERN SHOULD
BECOME ACTIVE WITH DECENT PCPN PROSPECTS AS SHORTWAVES TRACK E
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLEST
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEHIND SHORTWAVE PASSING
TONIGHT/MON. THEN...DESPITE NW FLOW...TEMPS THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SINCE ERN
TROF WILL NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE INTO THE ERN CONUS...
RESULTING IN COOLER AIR STAYING E AND NE OF THE AREA. TEMPS LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMER/MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. COULD BE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID FOR A DAY OR TWO.
BEGINNING MON NIGHT...A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON THE WAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. WITH VERY DRY COLUMN (PRECIPITABLE
WATER 30-50PCT OF NORMAL) AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM...WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE LOW END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE ARRIVING
DURING THE NIGHT. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...THERE
IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST IN THE USUAL COLDER AREAS.
SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING.
RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT SITE ON THE 18TH IS 38F. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT RECORD COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE SETTLED OVER THE UPPER LAKES TUE...PROVIDING A
DRY/PLEASANT MID JUNE DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER LINGERING
VERY DRY COLUMN. LAKE BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE...KEEPING LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE AFTN. GIVEN AVBL DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN...DWPTS
SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 30S...POSSIBLY LOWER...IN THE INTERIOR...
RESULTING IN MIN RH DOWN AROUND 25PCT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME LOCATIONS FALL TO AROUND 20PCT. FORTUNATELY...LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WX CONCERNS IN CHECK.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AND STILL CONTINUES TO HINT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE...PASSING JUST N OF UPPER MI LATE WED/WED
NIGHT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM ALL MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE...IT STILL APPEARS THERE MAY BE SOME PCPN AT SOME POINT
LATE WED/WED NIGHT. NOTHING MORE THAN SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE
WARRANTED SINCE BETTER FORCING PASSES BY TO THE N AND SINCE COVERAGE
WILL BE LOW IF PCPN DOES OCCUR. IF WAVE IS FASTER AND ARRIVES DURING
PEAK HEATING WED...PCPN CHC WILL BE GREATER...BUT WOULD STILL NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT COVERAGE.
ON THU...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBTLE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY THE AREA WED NIGHT TO HANG UP OVER/NEAR
UPPER MI...AND THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION THU AFTN.
MAINTAINED SCHC/LOW CHC POPS IN FCST.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND COULD
BECOME ACTIVE AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE NRN CONUS TO THE GREAT
LAKES...SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE THAT WAS SHIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE AREA. SIGNAL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST MID
RANGE CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF FRI/SAT. SFC HIGH PRES
MAY BEGIN TO BUILD S TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES SUN IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC...SO PCPN CHANCES MAY
DIMINISH ON SUN. OVERALL...THERE APPEARS TO BE DECENT POTENTIAL THAT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME RAIN AT SOME POINT BTWN FRI AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS FOR KIWD AND POSSIBLY
KSAW OVERNIGHT. LIFR CLOUD DECK HAS ALREADY FORMED AT KCMX AND IT
LOOKS LIKE IT/S BEGINNING TO FORM AT KSAW IN UPSLOPE NE FLOW SO WILL
INCLUDE LIFR CLOUDS IN AT BOTH SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE IFR
TO LIFR CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO FORM AT KIWD BY 10Z AS WINDS SHIFT
TO ONSHORE NE DIRECTION. LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BY LATE MON
MORNING BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...LEADING TO WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A POCKET OF FOG OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR /NEAR AND EAST OF GRAND MARAIS MI/ THAT HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING AND MOVING AROUND TODAY. WOULD EXPECT THE DRY AIR
TO CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT IT THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS SOME
CONCERN IT COULD EXPAND WITH RAIN OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF FOG
DOES LINGER TONIGHT...IT WILL CLEAR OUT MON MORNING AS MUCH DRIER AIR
SURGES S INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
431 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THERE HAVE BEEN TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MS INDUCED A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WORKED ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD TO JUST ABOUT THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MS.
MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR WERE CORRECT IN SHOWING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL MS...AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW IS NOW FORCING THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT OUT AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MANAGED
TO INITIATE NEW SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS IT CROSS THE
ARKLATEX...BUT WHAT WAS A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTM DEGENERATED INTO
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVED INTO AND AREA OF NEGATIVE LOW
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AND WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE MS
RIVER. AS THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER EAST...THE ENVIRONMENT
MAY BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STORMS OVER CENTRL MS THIS EVENING.
FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL SEND MORE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AND PERHAPS TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PERIOD AND HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED HIGH MAV MOS GUIDANCE
POPS...BUT INCREASED POPS SOME OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN SOUTHWARD TRENDS IN GUIDANCE QPF
FIELDS. AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TRYING TO PINPOINT
SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE
DIFFICULT IN THIS PATTERN GIVEN LITTLE HELP FROM EXPLICIT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE. WILL THERE KEEP THE FORECAST MORE GENERAL WITH THE IDEA
THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BETTER DAYTIME HEATING MAY TAKE PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS TUESDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. /EC/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND POPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME AND INTO
NEXT MONDAY. CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE COMPARED TO THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER IN THE WORK WEEK.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
90S. GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AS THE RIDGE BUILT IN FRIDAY...HIGHS COULD
RANGE FROM 95-97. GIVEN EXPECTED WET GROUND CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME...FELT THESE WERE TOO HIGH. THEREFORE I KNOCKED OFF 2-3
DEGREES AND NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM 92-94 ON FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BOTH GUIDANCE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKED
REASONABLE. /19/EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING STORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AND SOME RISK FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED PRECIP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 87 68 93 / 52 69 38 19
MERIDIAN 71 87 67 92 / 52 73 49 15
VICKSBURG 73 87 66 92 / 53 57 29 21
HATTIESBURG 73 91 71 94 / 29 56 41 40
NATCHEZ 72 87 70 91 / 45 61 29 42
GREENVILLE 72 87 67 92 / 71 48 15 12
GREENWOOD 71 86 66 91 / 73 50 19 12
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1056 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
OVERALL..,ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MS HAS STABILIZED AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT FUTURE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM
THIS COMPLEX OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-20.
THE OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IS THE DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ARKLATEX. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST
FURTHER DECAY OF COMPLEX WITH A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY HELPING TO INITIATE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LIMITING FACTORS
HOWEVER IN ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX ARE THE NEGATIVE LOW-LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...AND
RELATIVE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THAT IS LIMITING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WITH THIS IN MIND...STILL EXPECT GREATEST
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SCENARIO.
THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...CHALLENGING CONVECTIVE FORECAST TODAY AS TIMING
SPECIFICS ARE VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO POOR REPRESENTATION OF THE
CURRENT S/WV`S AND MCV FEATURES IN THE MODEL DATA. STILL...THE
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE S/WV FEATURES THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND
BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.
YESTERDAY OFFERED GREATER STORM/PRECIP COVERAGE THAN EXPECTED AND
WAS LIKELY THE KICKOFF DAY FOR THIS UPCOMING WETTER PERIOD.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOWED A MARKED INCREASE FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO
THE AFTERNOON AS PWS REACHED 2 IN. LOOK FOR THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS
TO HANG AROUND WITH PWS RANGING FROM 1.75-2.0 INCHES. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION TO
INSTIGATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FIRST MCV JUST PUSHED
INTO AL AND WAS GENERATED BY THE AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE CWA. EARLY THIS MORNING...A MCV IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AR AND WILL LIKELY AID IN PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE PUSHING
ACROSS OK AND THIS WILL TOO HELP SUPPORT CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W/NW AREAS. IF THAT WASN`T
ENOUGH...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE IN THE
PERTURBED FLOW AND SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THROUGH TUE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERAL WITH TIMING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW EACH FEATURE WILL EVOLVE AND FOLLOW CLOSE TO
THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS. FOR TODAY...I CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE REVISITED
BASED ON HOW STORM TRENDS THIS MORNING GO.
TODAY SEEMS TO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ALONG WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MIXED IN. THE REASON IS THAT SOME WARMER SFC TEMPS MAY
BE REALIZED AS HIGHS PEAK AROUND 90 WHICH COULD RESULT IN NEAR 3000
J/KG OF SBCAPE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ALONG
WITH SOME STRONGER FLOW (25-30KTS) AT 500MB WHICH SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. DUE TO THIS...WILL MENTION THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM GUSTY
WINDS 50-60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. YESTERDAY...LIGHTNING WAS ALSO
FREQUENT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND THAT MAY AGAIN BE THE CASE.
/CME/
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPEDE UPON THE CWA ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME AND INTO NEXT MONDAY. CONVECTION FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE COMPARED TO THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WORK WEEK.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
90S. GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AS THE RIDGE BUILT IN FRIDAY...HIGHS COULD
RANGE FROM 95-97. GIVEN EXPECTED WET GROUND CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME...FELT THESE WERE TOO HIGH. THEREFORE I KNOCKED OFF 2-3
DEGREES AND NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM 92-94 ON FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BOTH GUIDANCE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKED
REASONABLE. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR VFR TODAY...THE
EXCEPTION BEING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...LCLY IFR VSBYS...WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS
OCCUR. AN AREA OF LATE MORNING SHWRS/TSTMS EXISTS OVER NRN/NERN
ZONES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT
TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING STORM
CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND SOME RISK FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIP. /CME/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 92 71 89 70 / 36 42 49 50
MERIDIAN 91 70 89 69 / 49 47 57 57
VICKSBURG 92 72 89 70 / 29 45 50 47
HATTIESBURG 92 72 91 72 / 36 23 36 31
NATCHEZ 90 71 89 70 / 26 25 37 32
GREENVILLE 91 73 87 70 / 51 67 66 40
GREENWOOD 90 71 88 69 / 54 66 68 41
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
859 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE PACIFIC WEST COAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DID DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT DID NOT MOVE VERY FAR AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO VERY LIGHT MID-LEVEL STEERING WINDS. A FEW STORMS
DID PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY WERE ABLE TO TAP INTO A SHALLOW
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. BULK WIND SHEAR WAS NON-EXISTENT AND NO
SEVRE WEATHER DEVELOPED. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO
ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER
06Z. DID BUMP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES AS THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT. REST
OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. RICHMOND
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA PER
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE
CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG OVER SE MT. ELSEWHERE...CAPES WERE IN THE
700 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE...PRETTY VARIABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SHEAR WAS GENERALLY WEAK...HOWEVER VALUES WERE 30 TO 35 KT OVER SE
MT...SO BEST CHANCES OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER
THE SE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA DUE TO THE CAPES AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. HAD POPS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT MDT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
JET ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NW...CAUSING IT TO PROGRESS E WITH TIME. WILL HAVE INCREASING
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA STARTING ON WED...AS SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE REGION. UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT ON WED. BOTH THE GFS AND WRF HAD LARGE CAPES
2000-3000 J/KG OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WED AND WED EVENING...AS WELL AS INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE
AREA FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...DRY AIR OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT N INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
WED...KEEPING THE E DRY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE REGION FROM KBIL N AND W...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE OVER THE N. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST
OF THE AREA.
UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE OVER ID THU AND THU NIGHT. CAPES WILL BE VERY
LOW ON THU. HAD LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WITH FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THU
NIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
WILL HAVE A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT AS 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE E. WED WILL BE HOT
WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +14 DEGREES C AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
PAC NW UPPER LOW WILL KICK SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION FRI/SAT...AND
ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIMILARLY WITH REGARD TO STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. WITH CONFIDENCE HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS
THE REGION ON THESE DAYS. ACTIVITY IN THE WEST SHOULD BE NON-
SEVERE THOUGH WITH LOW WET BULB TEMPS SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. GFS SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MAY SURGE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO OUR EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...SO CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
EAST ON THESE DAYS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO
OUR EAST EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD EMERGE BY SUNDAY IN OUR WEST...WITH A
PERIOD OF DRY WX PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO MONDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT IN THE HANDLING OF THE PACIFIC FLOW
HERE. WILL ADVERTISE A DRY PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN SLIGHT
POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS WE MAY BE IMPACTED BY
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY BY THEN. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN BACK TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY DAYS 6/7.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW STRONGER RIDGING
WITH NEAR 590DAM HEIGHTS BY WED/THU OF NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO
KEEP WATCH OF THIS TREND.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY PERSIST UNTIL 06Z FROM NORTHERN
WYOMING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY
RAINFALL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID DAY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/089 052/077 052/072 052/069 051/078 054/082 056/082
22/T 22/T 33/T 34/T 41/B 12/T 22/T
LVM 051/084 043/072 041/069 042/067 046/079 046/082 049/081
33/T 23/T 33/T 34/T 40/B 02/T 22/T
HDN 061/091 053/078 052/074 050/072 050/078 052/082 052/083
21/U 22/T 32/T 34/T 41/B 12/T 22/T
MLS 061/096 058/081 055/076 056/076 055/080 056/083 057/083
21/N 22/T 44/T 34/T 43/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 061/095 054/081 055/076 054/075 053/079 054/084 055/084
21/N 22/T 44/T 34/T 42/T 12/T 22/T
BHK 057/090 057/080 054/076 055/074 054/076 054/080 057/082
21/N 22/T 36/T 54/T 43/T 22/T 22/T
SHR 054/090 048/078 050/073 048/073 047/076 049/081 050/082
31/U 22/T 32/T 23/T 31/B 12/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
441 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES TO CENTER
AROUND THE VERY TRICKY...AND CONSTANTLY-EVOLVING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...OR LACK THEREOF IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. ALTHOUGH
AT LEAST A LOW-END RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AS THE SUNDAY EVENING EVENT.
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIRLY NON-DESCRIPT
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC-SCALE COLD FRONT
NOTED WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OK/NORTHWEST TX. IT HAS BEEN
COMPLETELY RAIN/THUNDER-FREE THE ENTIRE DAY SO FAR CWA-WIDE. WITH
THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH...AND A MODEST 1018 MILLIBAR
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE GENERALLY SOME VARIATION OF NORTHERLY/EASTERLY AT NO MORE THAN
10 MPH. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
DEPICTS THE CONTINUATION OF WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...FLOWING OVER THE TOP OF A FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THERE ARE GENERALLY THREE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/RIPPLES OF NOTE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE DEPARTING EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/MO/OK BORDER
AREA...ONE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND...AND THE OTHER A FAIRLY
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB...WHICH
HAS HELPED TRIGGER SOME THUS-FAR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL
50-100 MILES WEST- NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NOTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH A FEW THICKER
MID-CLOUD AREAS DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES OUT AHEAD
OF THE WESTERN NEBRASKA CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPS ARE GENERALLY ON
TRACK TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S MOST ALL AREAS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PINNING DOWN THE HOURLY DETAILS
OF POPS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. REGARDING THE
BIG PICTURE ALOFT BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...THE VERY SUBTLE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WY/CO/NORTHWEST NEB AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST...WHILE
THE SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE NOW OVER ND WILL REACH THE
NORTH CENTRAL IA BY SUNRISE. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE CONSIDERED A
VARIETY OF DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
TONIGHT...WHICH INVARIABLY PAINT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
PICTURES...BUT LEANING MAINLY TOWARD THE HRRR/4 KM-WRF SOLUTIONS
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO
THE WEST. THROUGH 7PM...HAVE KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA POP-
FREE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES CREEPING INTO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST
1/3 OF THE CWA AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND/OR DRIFTS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN 00Z-04Z/7PM-11PM...SPREAD AT LEAST
SLIGHT 20 PERCENT POPS INTO EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...WHILE RAISING INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT HIGH-CHANCE RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. BY 00Z...LATEST RAP INDICATES AN
ENVIRONMENT AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG OF 0-1KM CAPE MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DROP
OFF SLOWLY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN HIGHEST IN KS ZONES. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CURRENT POPS MAY NOT BE NEARLY HIGH ENOUGH IF IN FACT A
SEMI-ORGANIZED BATCH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVERHEAD OR MOVES
IN...BUT GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT NO MORE
THAN 40-50 PERCENT FOR NOW. GENERALLY HAVE FOLLOWED SPC SREF
SEVERE THUNDER PROBABILITIES BY CONTINUING A MENTION OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...WITH AN EXPECTATION OF A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION DRIFTING IN. WORST-CASE SCENARIO WOULD SEEM TO BE A
60-70 MPH WIND EVENT IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A COLD POOL...BUT
IN THEORY THIS SEEMS FAIRLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
LOSE INTENSITY AS IT HEADS EAST OUT OF WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
KS...SO WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT A MARGINALLY SEVERE THREAT AT THIS
TIME. LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY MODELS SUCH AS
THE NAM THAT A MODEST RIBBON OF LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER COULD SPARK A NEW ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
MAINLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST-DRIFTING DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE...AND THUS
HAVE PUT POPS BACK INTO THESE NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
CASE THIS OCCURS. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS...WITH NEARLY
ALL AREAS SETTLING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60. ALSO...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 1-2 MILES OR LESS THAT WOULD
REQUIRE FORMAL INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST.
TURNING TO THE TUESDAY DAYTIME PERIOD...UNCERTAINLY JUST KEEPS
GROWING...WITH SOME MODELS CONTINUING TO PAINT DAYTIME MORNING
CONVECTION POSSIBLY AS A CONTINUATION OF THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY...AND ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING BY TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...BASED ON VARIOUS FACTORS INCLUDING
UNCERTAINTY/CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LESS QPF IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND LEAVE THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS RAIN/THUNDERSTORM-FREE FOR
NOW...WHILE ACKNOWLEDING THAT THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
INSERT SOME POST-SUNRISE POPS WITH LIMITED NOTICE. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE PREVIOUS 12Z NAM WAS ESSENTIALLY DRY DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE NEW 18Z RUN NOW HAS PLENTY OF DAYTIME
CONVECTION...WHICH COULD EASILY BE OVERDONE PER THE 12Z 4KM WRF-
NMM...WHICH FITS THE MORE COMMON CONCEPTUAL PICTURE OF LACK
OF FORCING IN THE WAKE OF THE IA SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES
PASSING SOUTHEAST. THIS CONCEPTUAL PICTURE OF THIS PATTERN WOULD
ALSO SUGGEST THE BEST AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WOULD BE IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND THUS AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE ONLY
OFFICIAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE CWA TOMORROW ARE FROM 3-7PM
IN WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD THEY OCCUR. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...BE PREPARED FOR
SOME POTENTIALLY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THESE
STORM CHANCES...AS LOOKING EVEN BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS IS
PROVING DICEY...AND MORNING CONVECTION COULD BE A WILD CARD.
TEMP-WISE TOMORROW...ASSUMING DAYTIME CONVECTION DOES NOT BLOSSOM
AND CLOUD THINGS UP...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY AND
NUDGED UP HIGHS SLIGHTLY...GETTING MOST PLACES BETWEEN 81-86
DEGREES. BREEZES WILL START OUT LIGHT BUT PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVE
AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT SHOWS THE
REGION REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK/BROAD RIDGING IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FAR NERN CONUS
AND THE PAC NW COAST. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE ACTIVITY ONGOING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HOW FAR
EAST/HOW MUCH OF THE CWA ENDS UP BEING AFFECTED. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO TAKE ITS TIME SLIDING EAST...WITH LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SEEING THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SEEING THUNDERSTORM...BUT ITS POSSIBLE NOT A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
WILL MAKE IT...SO THERE ISNT A BIG RAMP UP IN POPS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
AS WE LOOK TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOTHING IS CERTAINLY CLEAR
CUT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED PAC
NW UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING INLAND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT BY THURSDAY MORNING HAS ONLY MOVED INTO THE WA/ID/MT
BORDER AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION LIES WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION OF
PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. ITS IMPACT ON
THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WHICH AT THIS
POINT LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY FLAT/BROAD...NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SHIFT
THOSE BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ALREADY ON
WEDNESDAY...SOME MODELS SHOW THE WEST WITH THE BETTER CHANCES/OTHERS
THE EAST...AND DECIDED AT THIS POINT TO KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER
SIDE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE POPS
/WHICH REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY/...WITH THERE STILL BEING SOME
SUPPORT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST SLIDING
THROUGH...BUT WITH OTHERS STARTING TO TREND AWAY FROM THAT WASNT
GOING TO INCREASE THOSE CHANCES.
BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS STARTING TO DEPICT SOME SLIGHT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS THAT PAC NW LOW
REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN QUESTION IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES...AND
WHAT/IF ANYTHING IS LINGERING IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL
ANYTHING FIRE IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACCOMPANYING THIS
BUMP UP IN THE RIDGE IS WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS...AND CAPPING STARTS TO BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. SOME
MODELS HAVE STARTED TRENDING TOWARD THAT CAP BUILDING IN AND KEEPING
THE DAY DRY...BUT A FEW ARE HANGING ON TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY...SO WHILE POPS WERE LOWERED...THEY WERE NOT
COMPLETELY REMOVED AT THIS POINT.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS DRY. THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS
BECOMES MORE ORIENTATED IN A SW/NE DIRECTION JUST EAST OF THE
CWA...THE WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING AND LOCATION OF SFC
BOUNDARIES LOOKS TO KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES JUST OFF TO THE CWA.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE
CWA. THE LOW OVER THE PAC NW FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE E/NE
INTO CENTRAL CANADA...BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING THE RIDGE ONCE IN PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AGAIN ALLOWING FOR THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
DISTURBANCES IN THE MAIN FLOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECTING TO SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...MAINLY INTO THE FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME WITH THAT AMPLIFICATION OF
THE RIDGE...BEFORE MODERATING BACK DOWN A TOUCH INTO SUN/MON.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RISING TO THE 90S FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT
/ADDITION UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED/...WITH MID 80S TO MID
90S FOR SUN/MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM TIMING/PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS RATHER
MURKY IN THIS WEAKLY-FORCED NORTHWEST-FLOW PATTERN. ALTHOUGH HAVE
MAINTAINED SEVERAL HOURS OF VICINITY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO AT
LEAST HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCURRENCE...HAVE DELAYED THIS
MENTION TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMOVED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON. KEEP IN MIND THAT TEMPO/PREVAILING GROUPS WILL BE ADDED
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KGRI...AS ANY
STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
LIGHT BREEZES UNDER 10KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
TIME. ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITY CANNOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAVE IT VFR FOR NOW
GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1235 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
FIRST FORECAST UPDATE OF THE DAY JUST COMPLETED. TO MAKE A LONG
STORY SHORT...AM GROWING LESS AND LESS IMPRESSED WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN THE NOON-3 PM TIME FRAME...AS
INSTABILITY/FORCING FOR ROBUST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
EVEN JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA APPEARS TO BE CONSIDERABLY LACKING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EVEN BY 21Z...THE LATEST RAP-ADVERTISED
0-1KM MLCAPE RANGES FROM BARELY ANYTHING IN EASTERN ZONES...MAYBE
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG CENTRAL...AND UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG...AND EVEN
THEN A BIT OF A CAP IS IN PLACE. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WE
ARE LIKELY TO BE DOMINATED BY SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS...WHILE WEAK
UPSTREAM WAVE CROSSING NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS
CURRENTLY HAVING TROUBLE GENERATING MORE THAN SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS GIVEN MEAGER INSTABILITY. AT SOME POINT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SOME ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA COULD STILL MOVE IN AND BE STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE...BUT
AT LEAST FOR NOW AM GOING TO START DOWNPLAYING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND DELAY ANY MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL 20Z/3PM...AND EVEN THEN ONLY
20-30 PERCENT CHANCES THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITHIN ABOUT THE NORTHWEST
2/3 OF THE CWA. WILL REFINE THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT POPS IN LATER
UPDATES...BUT ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST HRRR DOESN/T BRING
A SINGLE STORM INTO THE CWA UNTIL AFTER 01Z/8PM...AND EVEN THEN
ONLY FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST/WEST COUNTIES. THIS IS NO GUARANTEE
THOUGH...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DETAILS IN THIS
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...MADE NO CHANGES WHATSOEVER TO HIGH TEMP
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT DID LOWER DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...WITH MANY CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES
RUNNING DOWN IN THE UPPER 50S VERSUS 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
OVERALL PATTERN TODAY IS RATHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z AND 06Z NAM...AND SEVERAL WFR RUNS
ONCE AGAIN INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS BY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
TRACK SOUTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PROPAGATING
TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FOR OUR AREA ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS BEING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES...WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ACROSS OUR FAR WEST AND THEN DECREASE TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM OR MOVE INTO THE REGION WILL
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FOCUS ONCE
AGAIN BEING WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE HIGH
TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT 30 TO 40 KTS.
THERE IS ALSO LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND THE QUESTION WILL BE CAN WE GET ENOUGH FORCING OR MOVE SOME
STORMS INTO OUR FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY WESTERN
AREAS...BUT MAYBE A FEW LESS STORMS OVERALL THAN WE HAD YESTERDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIE DOWN
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS NEBRASKA...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
ALOFT: THE LONG-WAVE /LGWV/ RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED TO THE
ROCKIES BY 12Z/TUE. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE OFF THE PAC NW COAST. THE
RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED BACK OVER THE PLAINS WED-THU AS THE SLOW-MOVING
LOW ADVANCES INTO THE PAC NW. BY FRI THE LOW WILL ONLY HAVE ADVANCED
INTO SRN ALBERTA. THE LGWV RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND
FAIRLY ZONAL W FLOW WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SFC: THE MEAN POLAR FRONT WILL BE NEAR I-70 AT 12Z/TUE AND GRADUALLY
SINK FURTHER S TUE-WED...AS THE ERN USA TROF MODESTLY DEEPENS. IN
THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NE 1/4 OF THE
USA. THE TAIL END OF THE POLAR FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS WED NGT INTO THU...AS PRES FALLS AND A NEW LEE LOW FORMS OVER
CO. WHILE WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A LULL IN TSTM ACTIVITY /MOST LIKELY
TUE-WED/...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK N WED NGT-THU...ALONG WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A FRESH EML
ADVECTING OFF THE ELEVATED DESERTS/ ROCKIES. HOWEVER...BY FRI THE CO
LOW IS FCST TO EJECT NE ACROSS NEB TO MN. IT APPEARS THAT THE POLAR
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRI-SUN WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF
LOW PRES TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONT. THE EML WILL PROBABLY CAP MOST
TSTM DEVELOPMENT S OF THE FRONT. MULTIPLE MCS COMPLEXES WILL OCCUR N
OF THE FRONT...MOST LIKELY FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/IA/MO.
FCST CONFIDENCE: OVERALL BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INHERENT UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED EFFECTS IN THE MODELS.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
TUE: EXPECT SOME CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE REMNANTS OF MON NGT TSTMS
OVER WRN KS/NEB. TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THOSE SAME AREAS AFTER 3
PM AND MAY EVENTUALLY DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE FCST AREA W OF HWY 281.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT. 1-2F COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FCST.
TUE NGT-WED: THE GFS/EC BOTH HAVE WHAT APPEAR TO BE THE LEADING
SHRTWV TROF /ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAC NW CLOSE LOW/ MOVING THRU
HERE...SUGGESTING THAT SHWRS/TSTMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. 1-2F COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FCST.
WED NGT: POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT? 40 KT LLJ PUNCHES OVER THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT.
THU: SOME LINGERING MRNG RAIN SOMEWHERE? WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
PLENTY OF MRNG CLOUDS BEHIND A DEPARTING TSTM COMPLEX...IF IT
MATERIALIZES. THE AFTN SHOULD TURN SUNNY. N-CNTRL KS SHOULD BE BACK
IN THE 90S. TEMPS 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL.
FRI-SAT: MOST LIKELY CAPPED AND WE HEAT IT BACK UP. BEAVER CITY
NEB-STOCKTON KS BACK TO 100F? TEMPS 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM TIMING/PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS RATHER
MURKY IN THIS WEAKLY-FORCED NORTHWEST-FLOW PATTERN. ALTHOUGH HAVE
MAINTAINED SEVERAL HOURS OF VICINITY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO AT
LEAST HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCURRENCE...HAVE DELAYED THIS
MENTION TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMOVED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON. KEEP IN MIND THAT TEMPO/PREVAILING GROUPS WILL BE ADDED
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KGRI...AS ANY
STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
LIGHT BREEZES UNDER 10KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
TIME. ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITY CANNOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAVE IT VFR FOR NOW
GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
926 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED WITH
STORMS JUST IN UNION COUNTY AT THIS TIME. JURY STILL OUT ON
WHETHER WE WILL SEE MUCH OF AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV LATER
TONIGHT...SETUP DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHT. RUC13 HAS BEEN BACKING
OFF ON A STRONG GRADIENT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EVEN TOWARDS
SUNRISE. WILL KEEP MONITORING. ZFP ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...551 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION HAS SO FAR BEEN BELOW EARLIER EXPECTATIONS. ISO-SCT
TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NE NM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO LOW ON WHETHER THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS NE NM AND SE CO
WILL ORGANIZE INTO A MCS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST...AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST. IF IT DOES...TCC WOULD STAND TO HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACTS...THOUGH SCALED BACK MENTION OF TS AND RA IN LATEST TAF
ISSUANCE. WITH THIS IN MIND...STRENGTH OF THE GAP WINDS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MTNS ALSO REMAINS IN QUESTION. KEPT FCST ABOVE
GUIDANCE...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN
ABQ TAF. ALSO CANT RULE OUT LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RTN
TO CVS...DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE IN PLACE.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT...
STORM COVERAGE IS MUCH MORE LIMITED TODAY AS POTENT DRY AIR ALOFT
MOVES OVER THE REGION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DID MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE DIVIDE BUT IT IS SHALLOW
AND WILL CONTINUE MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NE PLAINS. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A POTENTIAL SEVERE STORM WEST OF RATON...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. RAISED POPS FOR THE NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOWERED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN UGLY FIRE DANGER DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEP MIXING TAPPING VERY DRY AIR LEADING TO HOT...BREEZY/WINDY...
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. 700MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR +18C WHICH IS
NOT AS WARM AS WHAT WE EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK HOWEVER IT IS STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TOSSED IN SOME SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN BLOWING DUST
INTO THE GRIDS FOR A FEW CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCALES. ANY STORMS
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVEN THERE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
AND GUSTY ACTIVITY. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY EXCEPT
MORE MOISTURE WILL TRICKLE NORTH ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
RAISED POPS JUST A TAD FARTHER NORTH AS THE 12Z NAM IS BULLISH ON
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY UP TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
HOT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL STAY STRONG SO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
QUITE A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH MEDIUM/EXTENDED
RANGE GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
PWAT SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF 1-2 STDEV BELOW CLIMO VALUES FROM THE
NORTHERN BAJA REGION ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH NEAR CLIMO
VALUES FOR NM. THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THRU THIS PERIOD
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SHUTS OFF ANY STREAM OF MOISTURE SLIDING
INTO OUR AREA THRU ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH A 598DM RIDGE BUILDING
RIGHT OVER NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL SCORCHING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. THE GFS HOWEVER DOES
TAKE A PIECE OF THE CURRENT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND LIFTS IT NORTH WITH THE RIDGE FARTHER EAST. FOR NOW
WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION AND KEEP POPS VERY LOW IN THE
EXTENDED.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD NEXT FEW DAYS...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED A LITTLE STRONGER FLOW FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY SO RAISED SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BUT PRETTY
SIMILAR TO ORIGINAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER RIDGES AND AREAS NEAR THE AZ/CO
STATE LINES AS WELL AS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE
FAVORED FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SO BUMPED UP
WIND SPEEDS ACCORDINGLY. GETTING MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE 12Z NAM/S
DEPICTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING UP FROM MEXICO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHER MODELS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. COULD BE A WILD AND
WOOLLY DAY WITH A MIX OF STANDARD RED FLAG CONDITIONS PLUS DRY
MICROBURST WINDS DUE TO DRIER STORMS. WILL MONITOR THAT TREND
ACCORDINGLY. WILL UPGRADE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EXCLUDING AREAS NEAR TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE DUE TO HIGHER RH
THERE WEDNESDAY. WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. GOING TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE FOR BOTH
DAYS.
AS FAR AS REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT SOME DRIER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS THE DRY AIR RAPIDLY PUSHES FROM WEST TO
EAST. THESE STORMS WILL TEND TO BE FAST MOVING. THE WETTER STORMS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE
NORTHEAST.
UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL FILTER
FURTHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL TRY TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY POOR NEAR TO THE AZ
STATE LINE...POOR BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND THEN MODERATE TO GOOD FURTHER EAST. EVEN EXCELLENT NEAR
THE TEXAS STATE LINE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A HIGHER END CRITICAL DAY DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR
AND COMBO WIND/LOW RH/ABUNDANT TURBULENT MIXING AND QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE. SUN ANGLES ARE GETTING TO BE QUITE STEEP AND THE MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG AS IT PUSHES
FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE STATE. SUPER HAINES VALUES ARE PROJECTED
FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL BE
HERKY JERKY OR PULSY DUE TO THE TURBULENT MIXING AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SOME PRETTY STOUT SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS. SEVERAL HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS WESTWARD TO ARIZONA. THE HEART OF THE SINGLE DIGIT
AREA IN TERMS OF 10 TO 15 HOURS INCLUDES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STORM POTENTIAL...MAINLY OF THE DRIER VARIETY WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CANT RULE OUT A ROGUE DRY
STORM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES BEFORE THE DRY AIR
REALLY PUSHES IN.
THE RIDGE WILL NUDGE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION PROCEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH POOR TO VERY POOR
RECOVERIES WESTERN TWO THIRDS OR SO. MUCH BETTER RECOVERIES WITH
RESIDUAL HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE TEXAS
STATE LINE. THE HIGHER RIDGES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE STEADY WIND
FLOWS AS THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS SOME. THIS WILL LEAD INTO
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY CRITICAL DAY ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
REMAIN PRETTY STRONG AND FAVOR THE SAME AREAS AS MENTIONED DURING
THE OPENING PARAGRAPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD RISE SOME AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY/S
READINGS. NAM MODEL A LITTLE JUMPY WITH ITS DEPICTION OF A MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSH FROM MEXICO. THE 12Z MODEL WAS MORE MOIST WHILE THE
18Z IS COMING IN DRIER. IF STORMS DO FORM THEY WOULD BE DRIER AND
FASTER MOVING LEADING TO AN ADDITIONAL IGNITION THREAT. EITHER
WAY...GETTING ENOUGH CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY
AND ABOVE NORMAL MIXING TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. SEEING A
SUPER HAINES SIGNATURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO BUT LESS
AREA THAN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT TOWARDS AN UPPER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DECIDED TO UP
WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND SEEING SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS BUT DOESNT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG OF A SIGNAL AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. UPPER FLOW IS DEPICTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS THE PACIFIC
TROUGH SHEARS OUT. EXPECTING SOME SORT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SEEPAGE
FROM MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MORE OF A MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WETTER
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THERE WHILE THE DRIER VARIETY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WEST. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
MODERATE ALTHOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE MOISTURE PUSH.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>109.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>103-105>107-109.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
103 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE SOME
SUN ALONG WITH NEARLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORMED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LAST
EVENING CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL MAY EXIST WITHIN
THE STRONGER CELLS. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK POOL OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...LESS THAN 500 J/KG SURFACE/MIXED LAYER CAPE...OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THAT THESE STORMS ARE FEEDING ON. THE HRRR MODEL HAS
CAPTURED THIS CLUSTER WELL AND SHOWS IT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
WHILE WEAKENING SOME ONCE IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE. FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THIS IN MIND.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SURGING SOUTH FROM THIS CLUSTER WILL BE WATCHED
FOR TRIGGERING NEW CELLS FURTHER WEST NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY. A
SECOND MUCH SMALLER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW SHIFTED SOUTH OF
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY INTO NORTHWESTERN PA.
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL UNDERGO SOME STRENGTHENING WITH TIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A CLOSED LOW EVOLVING OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PROMPT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALL REGION TO SQUEEZE INTO
THE PREVAILING MID LEVEL WESTERLIES POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SOLID WINDOW WILL
EXIST TO CAPITALIZE ON DAYTIME HEATING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE DURING THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES /LIKELIES/ ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED...WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOLLOWING THE FROPA...SCATTERED
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH POPS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING IN PLACE AND COLD ADVECTION JUST STARTING
TO SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF TOO
MUCH...AND WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND THE MID-UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...OR RIGHT ABOUT
NORMAL FOR MID JUNE.
ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TO THE
VICINITY OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE...THOUGH A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE SUITE NOW SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL DEPART A LITTLE
MORE SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE KEPT CLOUD
COVER AND CHANCES FOR A LEFTOVER SHOWER OR TWO IN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD STILL
BE DRY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A RETURN TO AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON AS SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD. UNDER CONTINUED COOL AIR ADVECTION...850
MB TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO +6C TO +10C...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS
FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION ALONG WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR...BEFORE SETTLING DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT NIGHTTIME LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH ONLY THE LAKE PLAINS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 50S.
MEANWHILE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN RANGE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...LINGERING
BROAD/RELATIVELY FLAT TROUGHING ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS
FROM THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A POSITION OFF THE EAST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH A COUPLE WEAK FEATURES DROPPING
THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY/NORTH
COUNTRY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND...INCREASING RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE RIDGE SHOULD PUMP SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO OUR
REGION...AND THIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MORE GENERAL
CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE INDICATED POPS CLIMBING BACK TO LOW CHANCE LEVELS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE ABOVE EVOLUTION IN THE PATTERN
WILL ALSO RESULT IN READINGS MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
BY THURSDAY...THEN TO AT LEAST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY SHOULD WARM BACK TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 80S FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
BOTH THE EVENTUAL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE RISE...WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS OF
AROUND 50 ON THURSDAY CLIMBING BACK TO MODERATELY HUMID LEVELS IN
THE LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FOUND AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CONVECTION
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS NOT EXPECTED TO LARGELY
IMPACT TERMINALS. MAY SEE A VCTS OR -TSRA AT KROC IF NEW CELLS
DEVELOP ON STORM OUTFLOW. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER WET
GROUNDS TO DEVELOP SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. KJHW MAY SEE
CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR. ON MONDAY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING SOUTH OVER NEW YORK.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHIFT OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM THE LAKE.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WHICH CONTINUE FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW YORK THEN BY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
916 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LATEST BOWMAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE INTO SOUTHWEST HARDING COUNTY IN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE H85-H30 MEAN WIND WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE
PRECIPITATION AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE
THE LATEST RAP INITIALLY HAS THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION TOO FAR NORTH...AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS WITH A
HEAVIER BLEND OF THE NAM OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AS A H85-H7 SATURATED POTENTIAL TEMP RIDGE AXIS RESIDES
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...ALONG WITH H85-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN THEREAFTER...AND HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS TO LESS THAN
MEASURABLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
CLOUD DEBRIS/ACCAS (ALTOCUMULUS CASTELLANUS) SHOULD BE VISIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INSTABILITY SHIFTS
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS ARE ALSO INCREASING IN
NORTHEAST MONTANA AS A CIRRUS CANOPY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. EXPECTATIONS ARE ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES OVERNIGHT AND
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW SCT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM ROSEGLEN TO NEAR DICKINSON...WITH A SCT
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WITH A H7-H5 RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED FROM WILLISTON TO
BISMARCK AND INTO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...EXPECT A DRY
NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS.
ATTENTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TURNS TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING...WITH A LARGE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CANOPY EXPANDING OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RAP ADVECTS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARD 06Z. THE 18Z GFS IS MORE ROBUST IN
GENERATING A LARGER SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND JUST
GRAZING OUR SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. HOWEVER OTHER MODELS DELAY THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL AWAIT THE 00Z DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO MONITOR THE CONVECTION
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ONLY UPDATES
THIS EVENING WAS TO HOURLY OBS AND TO INCREASE SKY GRID TRENDS IN
THE SOUTHWEST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE CLOUD DEBRIS MAY MAKE IT
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN
MONTANA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS IN WYOMING/MONTANA/SOUTH DAKOTA
AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY ONE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A SLOWING EVOLVING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
THAT MAY CAP THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER BELIEVE THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES JUSTIFY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD APPROACH BUT REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY 20 TO 35 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...SOME
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE NAM FASTEST IN BRINGING THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES EASTWARD. HAVE FAVORED THE GFS/EC SOLUTIONS FOR
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
MCS TO CLIP NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...FUELED BY A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE MAIN
DECISION-MAKING ELEMENT WAS WHEN/WHERE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP
WOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION...BECAUSE OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CAPE AND
SHEARING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL CAP OF 10-14C IS
SITUATED OVER WYOMING/EASTERN MONTANA AND NUDGING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE CAP BUILDS DURING THE EVENING
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS IN FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE EVENING WEDNESDAY OR EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE ORIENTED
NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
MORNING...AND SHIFTING TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME FOR WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A SURFACE LOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW IS
FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAINTAINING ITS
PRESENCE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE IN THE
UPPER FLOW. THE MODELS BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WOULD ALLOW SOME UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT KDIK OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VCTS
HAS BEEN ADDED TO MOST AERODROMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
624 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW SCT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM ROSEGLEN TO NEAR DICKINSON...WITH A SCT
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WITH A H7-H5 RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED FROM WILLISTON TO
BISMARCK AND INTO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...EXPECT A DRY
NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS.
ATTENTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TURNS TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING...WITH A LARGE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CANOPY EXPANDING OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RAP ADVECTS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARD 06Z. THE 18Z GFS IS MORE ROBUST IN
GENERATING A LARGER SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND JUST
GRAZING OUR SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. HOWEVER OTHER MODELS DELAY THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL AWAIT THE 00Z DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO MONITOR THE CONVECTION
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ONLY UPDATES
THIS EVENING WAS TO HOURLY OBS AND TO INCREASE SKY GRID TRENDS IN
THE SOUTHWEST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE CLOUD DEBRIS MAY MAKE IT
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN
MONTANA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS IN WYOMING/MONTANA/SOUTH DAKOTA
AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY ONE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A SLOWING EVOLVING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
THAT MAY CAP THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER BELIEVE THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES JUSTIFY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD APPROACH BUT REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY 20 TO 35 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...SOME
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE NAM FASTEST IN BRINGING THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES EASTWARD. HAVE FAVORED THE GFS/EC SOLUTIONS FOR
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
MCS TO CLIP NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...FUELED BY A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE MAIN
DECISION-MAKING ELEMENT WAS WHEN/WHERE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP
WOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION...BECAUSE OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CAPE AND
SHEARING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL CAP OF 10-14C IS
SITUATED OVER WYOMING/EASTERN MONTANA AND NUDGING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE CAP BUILDS DURING THE EVENING
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS IN FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE EVENING WEDNESDAY OR EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE ORIENTED
NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
MORNING...AND SHIFTING TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME FOR WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A SURFACE LOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW IS
FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAINTAINING ITS
PRESENCE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE IN THE
UPPER FLOW. THE MODELS BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WOULD ALLOW SOME UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT KDIK OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VCTS
HAS BEEN ADDED TO MOST AERODROMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
120 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NW PA AND NRN
OH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO CLOUDS.
TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER LAKE ERIE LATE TODAY AND THEN
MOVING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
PREVIOUS...STARTING TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED IN THE OBS...MOST
NOTABLY WHERE THE MOST RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF PATCHY FOR TO THE FORECAST GRIDS SINCE SOME OF THE
VISIBILITIES ARE BELOW A HALF MIL. AREA STABILIZED EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH NOTHING TO INITIATE A SHOWER/TS...MUCH OF THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER...DIVIDING
MID AND UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS TO ITS SOUTH FROM MID 50S DEWPOINTS TO
ITS NORTH...BUT IT IS MUCH LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. 00Z DTX
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THE RELATIVE DRYING THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE.
SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SHRA/TS FOR A GOOD PART OF TODAY.
WILL BRING LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO ERIE PA AFTER 2 PM AND INTO CLE
AFTER 5P AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MI INTO
ONTARIO BEGINS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH THE GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW...H8 TEMPS CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY.
SO WILL TACK ON SOME FOR THE HIGHS. THIS WILL PUT NW OHIO SOLIDLY
INTO THE MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY START TO
SINK SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS MI/ONTARIO
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO SEEP INTO NW PA/NRN
OHIO DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WILL MAXIMIZE PRECIP CHANCES THEN
IN THE EVENING...TAPERING THEM OVERNIGHT AS WE STABILIZE. FRONT
THOUGH WILL BE SLOW TO FLUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SOME
PRECIP CHANCES INLAND FOR TUESDAY. MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH 60S FOR
LOWS. TUESDAYS TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT THE
EFFECTS OF COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE LAKESHORE.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A DRY PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL SLIP BACK
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHTS AGAIN WILL GET INTO THE LOWER
50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE. AMPLE SUN AND CLEARING
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS ON BALANCE...A BIT MORE HEAT IN THE
REGION. FRIDAY MODELS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/NE. GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN
THE REGION WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE
INCREASING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW DRIFT
EAST SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY CONVEYOR OUT OF THE GLFMX. SUNDAY THE
LOW WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WEST. EXPECTING A DECENT SHOT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WITH THE UPPER
HIGH ALSO NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL HOLD POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE
LAKESHORE. MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH CAPES OVER
2,000 J/KG BUT NOT ALOT OF LIFT OR SHEAR. MODELS DEVELOP MORE
PREIP AHEAD OF SECONDARY TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MOVES ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SECOND FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTH TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. WITH THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS OR WAVES TO GET HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE A 2 TO 3 FOOT CHOP ON THE CENTRAL AND
WEST THIRD NEARSHORE WATERS MIDWEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
945 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NW PA AND NRN
OH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO CLOUDS.
TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER LAKE ERIE LATE TODAY AND THEN
MOVING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
PREVIOUS...STARTING TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED IN THE OBS...MOST
NOTABLY WHERE THE MOST RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF PATCHY FOR TO THE FORECAST GRIDS SINCE SOME OF THE
VISIBILITIES ARE BELOW A HALF MIL. AREA STABILIZED EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH NOTHING TO INITIATE A SHOWER/TS...MUCH OF THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO BORDER...DIVIDING
MID AND UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS TO ITS SOUTH FROM MID 50S DEWPOINTS TO
ITS NORTH...BUT IT IS MUCH LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. 00Z DTX
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THE RELATIVE DRYING THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE.
SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SHRA/TS FOR A GOOD PART OF TODAY.
WILL BRING LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO ERIE PA AFTER 2 PM AND INTO CLE
AFTER 5P AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MI INTO
ONTARIO BEGINS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH THE GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW...H8 TEMPS CREEP UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY.
SO WILL TACK ON SOME FOR THE HIGHS. THIS WILL PUT NW OHIO SOLIDLY
INTO THE MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY START TO
SINK SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS MI/ONTARIO
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO SEEP INTO NW PA/NRN
OHIO DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WILL MAXIMIZE PRECIP CHANCES THEN
IN THE EVENING...TAPERING THEM OVERNIGHT AS WE STABILIZE. FRONT
THOUGH WILL BE SLOW TO FLUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SOME
PRECIP CHANCES INLAND FOR TUESDAY. MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH 60S FOR
LOWS. TUESDAYS TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT THE
EFFECTS OF COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE LAKESHORE.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A DRY PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL SLIP BACK
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHTS AGAIN WILL GET INTO THE LOWER
50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE. AMPLE SUN AND CLEARING
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS ON BALANCE...A BIT MORE HEAT IN THE
REGION. FRIDAY MODELS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/NE. GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN
THE REGION WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE
INCREASING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW DRIFT
EAST SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY CONVEYOR OUT OF THE GLFMX. SUNDAY THE
LOW WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WEST. EXPECTING A DECENT SHOT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WITH THE UPPER
HIGH ALSO NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL HOLD POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG/MIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS MVFR
ALTHOUGH LIFR AT KCAK AND KYNG. FOG/MIST SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
THIS MORNING BUT AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THRU
14Z AT KYNG AND KCAK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 THOUSAND
FEET ALTHOUGH LOCAL CUMULUS SCHEME SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF BKN
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA. AFTER 00Z EXPECTING INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM 10K AND BELOW AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. BOUGHT VCSH TO MUCH OF AREA AFTER 04Z ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SECOND FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTH TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. WITH THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS OR WAVES TO GET HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE A 2 TO 3 FOOT CHOP ON THE CENTRAL AND
WEST THIRD NEARSHORE WATERS MIDWEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT JUNE PATTERN OF A BROAD THROUGH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION AND BE
REPLACED BY A SUMMERTIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD FROM
THE PLAINS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
850 MB THE BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING. RUC13 HAS GOOD
HANDLE ON BOUNDARY LOCATION AND NEAR TERM CONVECTION...WHICH IT
DISSIPATES BY 08Z FOR MOST. THINK GIVEN THE EXTENT OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY AND TRENDS THAT KEEPING POPS UP INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE WILL BE PRUDENT AS CONVECTION HAS
OUT LIVED ITS PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS.
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING WILL COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA
BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTH GIVEN LATEST IR
TRENDS OF ADDITIONAL MID LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM
SOUTHERN OHIO...IN ADDITION TO DEBRIS FROM DISSIPATING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ALSO...EXPECT SOME FOG IN SOUTHERN VALLEYS AS
WELL SINCE WINDS DO GO CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS. MINS WILL BE CHILLY
UP NORTH...MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST...WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LAST SHORTWAVE TO ENHANCE THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL RUN OVER THE
REGION AROUND SUNRISE...AND THEN THE HEIGHTS START TO RISE
STEADILY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH
AND INTO PA TO REMOVE MOST CLOUD COVER AND ALMOST EVERY BIT OF
POPS. WILL JUST HANG ONTO A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE LAURELS/SC MTS WHERE ENOUGH MSTR AND ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES
MAY COMBINE TO POP OFF A SHRA OR TWO. TEMPS WILL BE A DEG OR TWO
LOWER WED THAN TUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO PA WED
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TO 588DM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SE ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PA ON WED NIGHT...SETTING UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LINGERING IN THE 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA...BUT MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF I-80 WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 40S.
STARTING THU...LLVL S-SWLY RETURN FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH /DRIFTING
OFF THE EAST COAST/ WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLVL MSTR
THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR AN AFTN
POP-UP/AIRMASS TYPE TSTM ON FRI. OTHERWISE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS TEMPS CLIMB TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON THU
AND BEGIN A STRING OF ABOVE NORMAL DAYS ON FRIDAY.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HEIGHTS PEAK. BIGGER SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS SLIDES IN FROM THE
WEST AS HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD...SO A SERIES OF VERY WARM AND
HUMID DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SAT INTO TUES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING QUITE MILD AS WELL. WITH STAGNANT AIR AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH...HELD ON TO 20-30 POPS MOST
AFTERNOONS - WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF
ISOLATED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING INITIATED STORMS.
PATTERN ALSO HAS A RING-OF-FIRE LOOK TO IT SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR MCS ACTIVITY/RIDGE ROLLERS SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NW...THOUGH
LATEST MODELS NOT QUITE AS BULLISH ON THAT. EC OVERALL PRODUCING
MORE CONVECTION THAN THE GFS...BUT GENERAL AREAS ARE SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ACT AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE
FCST AREA. MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM JST EASTWARD AS THE SHOWERS
MEANDER ABOUT. BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL BE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS EVENING.
ANY EARLY MVFR OVER SRN AREAS WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF
THE GR LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WX INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT-SUN...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT JUNE PATTERN OF A BROAD THROUGH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION AND BE
REPLACED BY A SUMMERTIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING EASTWARD FROM
THE PLAINS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE ON SCHEDULE WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER...AND LAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
850 MB THTE BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING. RUC13 HAS GOOD
HANDLE ON BOUNDARY LOCATION AND NEAR TERM CONVECTION...WHICH IT
DISSIPATES BY 08Z FOR MOST. THINK GIVEN THE EXTENT OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY AND TRENDS THAT KEEPING POPS UP INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE WILL BE PRUDENT AS CONVECTION HAS
OUT LIVED ITS PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS.
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING WILL COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA
BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTH GIVEN LATEST IR
TRENDS OF ADDITIONAL MID LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM
SOUTHERN OHIO...IN ADDITION TO DEBRIS FROM DISSIPATING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ALSO...EXPECT SOME FOG IN SOUTHERN VALLEYS AS
WELL SINCE WINDS DO GO CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS. MINS WILL BE CHILLY
UP NORTH...MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST...WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS RANGE THROUGH THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LAST SHORTWAVE TO ENHANCE THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL RUN OVER THE
REGION AROUND SUNRISE...AND THEN THE HEIGHTS START TO RISE
STEADILY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH
AND INTO PA TO REMOVE MOST CLOUD COVER AND ALMOST EVERY BIT OF
POPS. WILL JUST HANG ONTO A SLIGHT CHC OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE LAURELS/SC MTS WHERE ENOUGH MSTR AND ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES
MAY COMBINE TO POP OFF A SHRA OR TWO. TEMPS WILL BE A DEG OR TWO
LOWER WED THAN TUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO PA WED
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TO 588DM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SE ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PA ON WED NIGHT...SETTING UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LINGERING IN THE 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA...BUT MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF I-80 WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 40S.
STARTING THU...LLVL S-SWLY RETURN FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH /DRIFTING
OFF THE EAST COAST/ WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLVL MSTR
THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR AN AFTN
POP-UP/AIRMASS TYPE TSTM ON FRI. OTHERWISE...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS TEMPS CLIMB TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON THU
AND BEGIN A STRING OF ABOVE NORMAL DAYS ON FRIDAY.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HEIGHTS PEAK. BIGGER SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS SLIDES IN FROM THE
WEST AS HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD...SO A SERIES OF VERY WARM AND
HUMID DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SAT INTO TUES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING QUITE MILD AS WELL. WITH STAGNANT AIR AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH...HELD ON TO 20-30 POPS MOST
AFTERNOONS - WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN OF
ISOLATED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING INITIATED STORMS.
PATTERN ALSO HAS A RING-OF-FIRE LOOK TO IT SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR MCS ACTIVITY/RIDGE ROLLERS SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NW...THOUGH
LATEST MODELS NOT QUITE AS BULLISH ON THAT. EC OVERALL PRODUCING
MORE CONVECTION THAN THE GFS...BUT GENERAL AREAS ARE SIMILAR.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ACT AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM JST EASTWARD AS THE SHOWERS
MEANDER ABOUT.
ANY EARLY MVFR OVER SRN AREAS WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF
THE GR LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WX INTO THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT-SUN...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1015 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS. MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE WEEK MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...DUE TO LARGELY BOUNDARY-PARALLEL SHEAR...CELLS THAT
INITIALLY FORMED AROUND SUNSET HAVE TRAINED ROUGHLY ALONG A
GREENVILLE TO CHESTER LINE IN CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE FRONT.
ACTIVITY NOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY WANES...BUT SOME
PRECIP LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT LEAST. HOWEVER
WITH OUTFLOW PUSHING OUT ACRS GREENVILLE AND SPARTANBURG COUNTIES
CAN/T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FIRING FROM THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THOSE COUNTIES SOUTH. NORTH OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG
THE UPSTREAM BOUNDARY OVER KY WOULD TAKE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TO
REACH THE TN/NC BORDER...BUT THEY ARE ALREADY STRUGGLING IN THE MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT THEY ARE ENTERING...SO DO NOT SEE A NEED TO
REFLECT THESE STORMS IN POPS TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ON TRACK SO
FAR THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN GOING LOWS.
730 PM UPDATE...PRECIP ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO THE PIEDMONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE CWFA WITH FRONT PUSHING INTO THAT AREA.
ACTIVITY GENERALLY WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING ANYWAY. RAP AS
WELL AS LOCAL WRF MODEL DO NOT SHOW ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...AND WINDS ARE DRY AND DOWNSLOPING ANYWAY. STILL DO THINK
SOME OF THE REMAINING CU IN EAST TN AND THE MTNS OF WNC WILL REMAIN
AS PATCHY STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPREADING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWFA TOO. KEPT PCLDY-MCLDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A BIT OF A TRICKY FCST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE
MODELS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF S/W ENERGY ACROSS
THE CWFA IS NOT VERY HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE LATEST RADAR
SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
INTO THE WRN ZONES. VSBY SAY SHOW GOOD CLEARING AND HEATING TAKING
PLACE...BUT IN A DEEPLY MOIST ATMOS SBCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH
ONLY MOD LEVELS. THIS IS A LITTLE EVIDENT IN THE LOW TOP CONV SEEN
TO THE WEST. IN ANY REGARD...WILL ANTICIPATE TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CROSS
S/W ENERGY...SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE MLVLS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE MTNS AROUND 00Z AND INTO THE UPSTATE NEAR 05Z. THIS WILL
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH WITH A LOWER THETA/E AIRMASS
MIXING IN. SOME PATCHY DENSE FG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE
MTN VALLEYS AS THE PGRAD IS NOT REAL TIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BROADENS THROUGH 12Z.
A CP HIGH WILL WORK SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY TOMORROW AND PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL EXPECT THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS...WHERE AN E/LY UPSLOPE FLOW BRINGS
IN ATL MOISTURE. POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO SLIGHT/CHANCE ACROSS THE
MTNS AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE...WITH MAINLY -SHRA AND PERHAPS A MODERATE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE FHILLS AND MTNS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE NE/LY SFC FLOW AND
AIRMASS MIXING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SET UP CAMP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN RIDGED SWD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH FRI. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE ALMOST INDETERMINATE IN
THE DEEP SOUTH WITH VERY WEAK FLOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN A
TROUGH WELL TO THE NE AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HENCE...NO SIGNIFCANT UPPER FORCING IS ANTICIPATED. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ESSENTAILLY ABOVE 10KFT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS FORECAST TO DECREASE ON FRI.
HENCE...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY MAINLY BY THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW AND ANY MECHANICAL LIFT IT MUSTERS...PLUS DIURNAL HEATING.
THEREFORE...MAINLY DIURNAL/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS A DOWN TICK IN COVERAGE ON FRI
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DRYER AIR. WITH THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...SOME
NOCTURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WED/THU NIGHTS. USED AN ALLBLEND APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES
WHICH PRODUCED MAX TEMPS ON THU AND FRI ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN
SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FOR THE REGION.
THIS WILL DRIVE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THE PERIOD...WITH
GREATER CHANCE POPS FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW QUADRANT THIS EVENING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARRIVES...BUT TIMING TOUGH WITH TSTM ACTIVITY ACRS THE
REGION. HAVE SETTLED ON 03Z BASED MAINLY ON GFS MOS AND NAM. SOME
SHOWERS PRIOR TO THIS TIME AS WELL THOUGH VSBY SHUD REMAIN VFR.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BUT SOME CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN GIVEN AMT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME JUST BEFORE
SUNSET. DOWNSLOPING ON THE NW WINDS WILL LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND
GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT BKN CIG WILL REMAIN VFR. THIS WILL
MIX UP TO 050-060 WED MRNG. ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND THE AREA TMRW BUT
NOT WORTHY OF A TAF MENTION. LIGHT NLY WINDS FOLLOWING SHIFT.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES VERY SMALL AT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AS DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SITES THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY SEEN SHIFT TO NW WILL SEE IT BY EARLY
WED MRNG. LEFTOVER LOW CU OVER THE MTNS MAY CONGEAL INTO A MORE
SOLID DECK THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE DRY AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW CIGS
UNLIKELY TO LOWER MUCH...SO KEPT VFR CIGS AT ALL SITES. FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE THAT SOME FOG WILL FORM IN THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS. WENT PREVAILING MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR AT KAVL/KHKY.
MIDLEVEL CIGS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH ENUF CU DEVELOPMENT TO EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT WITH COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
OUTLOOK...MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP WED NIGHT LEADING TO LOW
STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THU MORNING WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 72% HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 95% MED 72% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
807 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS. MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE WEEK MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...PRECIP ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO THE PIEDMONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE CWFA WITH FRONT PUSHING INTO THAT AREA.
ACTIVITY GENERALLY WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING ANYWAY. RAP AS
WELL AS LOCAL WRF MODEL DO NOT SHOW ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...AND WINDS ARE DRY AND DOWNSLOPING ANYWAY. STILL DO THINK
SOME OF THE REMAINING CU IN EAST TN AND THE MTNS OF WNC WILL REMAIN
AS PATCHY STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPREADING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWFA TOO. KEPT PCLDY-MCLDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A BIT OF A TRICKY FCST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE
MODELS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF S/W ENERGY ACROSS
THE CWFA IS NOT VERY HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE LATEST RADAR
SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
INTO THE WRN ZONES. VSBY SAY SHOW GOOD CLEARING AND HEATING TAKING
PLACE...BUT IN A DEEPLY MOIST ATMOS SBCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH
ONLY MOD LEVELS. THIS IS A LITTLE EVIDENT IN THE LOW TOP CONV SEEN
TO THE WEST. IN ANY REGARD...WILL ANTICIPATE TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CROSS
S/W ENERGY...SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE MLVLS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE MTNS AROUND 00Z AND INTO THE UPSTATE NEAR 05Z. THIS WILL
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH WITH A LOWER THETA/E AIRMASS
MIXING IN. SOME PATCHY DENSE FG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE
MTN VALLEYS AS THE PGRAD IS NOT REAL TIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BROADENS THROUGH 12Z.
A CP HIGH WILL WORK SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY TOMORROW AND PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL EXPECT THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS...WHERE AN E/LY UPSLOPE FLOW BRINGS
IN ATL MOISTURE. POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO SLIGHT/CHANCE ACROSS THE
MTNS AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE...WITH MAINLY -SHRA AND PERHAPS A MODERATE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE FHILLS AND MTNS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE NE/LY SFC FLOW AND
AIRMASS MIXING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SET UP CAMP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN RIDGED SWD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH FRI. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE ALMOST INDETERMINATE IN
THE DEEP SOUTH WITH VERY WEAK FLOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN A
TROUGH WELL TO THE NE AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HENCE...NO SIGNIFCANT UPPER FORCING IS ANTICIPATED. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ESSENTAILLY ABOVE 10KFT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS FORECAST TO DECREASE ON FRI.
HENCE...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY MAINLY BY THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW AND ANY MECHANICAL LIFT IT MUSTERS...PLUS DIURNAL HEATING.
THEREFORE...MAINLY DIURNAL/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS A DOWN TICK IN COVERAGE ON FRI
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DRYER AIR. WITH THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...SOME
NOCTURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WED/THU NIGHTS. USED AN ALLBLEND APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES
WHICH PRODUCED MAX TEMPS ON THU AND FRI ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN
SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FOR THE REGION.
THIS WILL DRIVE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THE PERIOD...WITH
GREATER CHANCE POPS FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW QUADRANT THIS EVENING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARRIVES...BUT TIMING TOUGH WITH TSTM ACTIVITY ACRS THE
REGION. HAVE SETTLED ON 03Z BASED MAINLY ON GFS MOS AND NAM. SOME
SHOWERS PRIOR TO THIS TIME AS WELL THOUGH VSBY SHUD REMAIN VFR.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BUT SOME CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN GIVEN AMT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME JUST BEFORE
SUNSET. DOWNSLOPING ON THE NW WINDS WILL LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND
GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT BKN CIG WILL REMAIN VFR. THIS WILL
MIX UP TO 050-060 WED MRNG. ISOLATED -SHRA AROUND THE AREA TMRW BUT
NOT WORTHY OF A TAF MENTION. LIGHT NLY WINDS FOLLOWING SHIFT.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES VERY SMALL AT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AS DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SITES THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY SEEN SHIFT TO NW WILL SEE IT BY EARLY
WED MRNG. LEFTOVER LOW CU OVER THE MTNS MAY CONGEAL INTO A MORE
SOLID DECK THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE DRY AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW CIGS
UNLIKELY TO LOWER MUCH...SO KEPT VFR CIGS AT ALL SITES. FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE THAT SOME FOG WILL FORM IN THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS. WENT PREVAILING MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR AT KAVL/KHKY.
MIDLEVEL CIGS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH ENUF CU DEVELOPMENT TO EXPECT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT WITH COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
OUTLOOK...MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP WED NIGHT LEADING TO LOW
STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THU MORNING WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z
KCLT HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 72% HIGH 81% HIGH 96% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 94% HIGH 97% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 97% HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% MED 74% HIGH 87% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
811 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KY AT THIS TIME. THE ACTIVITY IS STILL SEVERAL
COUNTIES NORTH OF THE TN/KY LINE BUT IS MOVING SOUTH. LATEST LAPS
DATA SHOWING THAT CAPES DROP FROM 1400 J/KG VCNTY OF STORMS
NOW...TO NEAR 600 J/KG ALONG THE TN/KY LINE. 850 MB FLOW IS
GENERALLY NORTHERLY WHICH DOES NOT USUALLY CONDONE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS LOOKING
MINIMAL. HRRR OF LITTLE SUPPORT AND ONLY GOES OUT TO 03Z FOR NOW.
WILL OPT TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FCST AND KEEP THE 20 POPS
GOING. WILL REMOVE THOSE POPS IF AND WHEN THE CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH COMPLETELY DIES OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN
IN WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
WEAKEN BUT AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO COULD FLIRT WITH CROSSING THE
TN/KY BORDER LATE TONIGHT. OTW...SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD
12Z. ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR YOUR
WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NOW WELL SOUTH OF MID
STATE WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AT
MID-AFTERNOON. RATHER SHARP SHORT WAVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WORK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS INDIANA INTO OHIO.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY. SURFACE BOUNDARY PROGGED TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
PRECEDING BY CONVECTION. FRONT WILL BE UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS BY
THE TIME IT GETS THIS FAR SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING I DONT FEEL CONFORTABLE NOT HAVING AT LEAST A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. THERE
STILL COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER ON THE UPPER CUMBERLAND FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO...AM EXPECTING LATE NIGHT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST
THAT COULD DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TURN OUT QUITE SUMMER-LIKE...
RIGHT ON CUE WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE WHICH OCCURS FRIDAY JUNE
21ST AT 12:04 AM CDT. PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MID STATE REMAINING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS MEANS A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE PRETTY MUCH EACH DAY.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1218 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WSR-88D
VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE SEVERAL 500 MB MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO WITH THE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...AND
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CDT RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND 70S TO LOWER 80S EAST.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGE.
00Z KLZK UPPER AIR SOUNDING STILL REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 3200 J/KG...LI/S AROUND -8...AND
VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INSTABILITY AT KJAN REMAINS
SIMILAR WITH MUCH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT THAN LZK.
MEANWHILE...INSTABILITY IS LOWER AT OHX THIS EVENING. 18Z MODELS
AND THE 00Z NAM ARE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
PARTICULARLY WELL. THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH /HRRR/ INDICATES THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...OVERALL
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEP ONGOING CHANCE POPS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL ALSO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...AND ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WET PATTERN SETTING OVER THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS MODELS DID
NOT INITIALIZE VERY WELL. ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION
HAS KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE THAN WHAT THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING. THUS THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF PEAK HEATING AND THE EXPECTED UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS NOT THE CASE AT LEAST SO FAR. HOWEVER...WITHIN
THE LAST 45 MINUTES A THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER PANOLA
COUNTY. THE NAM AND RAP SHOWED WHATEVER ACTIVITY DEVELOPED DYING
OUT AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE...OTHER MODELS LIKE THE HRRR SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH IS DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OCCUR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BUT NOTHING AHEAD OF IT YET OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS.
THE HRRR BRINGS THE ACTIVITY INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATES IT BY MIDNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS
EVENING. IN FACT...THE ECMWF SHOWED LITTLE ACTIVITY THE ENTIRE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND THE NAM BOTH SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET.
WITH SUCH A WIDE RANGE OF SCENARIOS...HAVE KEPT 40 POPS ACROSS
FROM THE TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI LINE NORTHWARD MAINLY DUE TO THE
CONVECTION YOU SEE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THINK THIS CONVECTION WILL PUSH DOWN INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW MORE POP UP DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. DON/T
KNOW IF ANY STORM WILL BE SEVERE BUT WILL KEEP THE STRONG TO
SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO FOR NOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
MONDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A COLD
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUD
COVER MAY AFFECT INSTABILITY LIKE IT DID TODAY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL
UNDERNEATH SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY BE A BIGGEST ISSUE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR TOMORROW. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD. HIGHS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AROUND.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....THE GFS SLIDES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
CWA WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD THE FRONT UP OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS AND ITS REALLY ANYBODY/S GUESS WHICH IS CORRECT. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE GFS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO START MOVING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ON
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
NEXT WEEKEND...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. ONLY ONE STORM
COMPLEX IS OF CONCERN ON THE RADAR...IT MAY IMPACT MEM BETWEEN 09
AND 11Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL -1 STAY TOGETHER...AND
-2 MAINTAIN ITS EASTWARD TRACK. IT IT DOES AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR
TO IFR VIS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPORARY GUSTY WINDS...MOST
LIKELY FROM THE WEST. REMOVED MENTION OF TS AT ALL OTHER SITES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SITES. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL REDUCE
VIS AND MAY RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 71 86 71 88 / 80 40 10 10
MKL 69 85 64 87 / 80 30 10 10
JBR 69 87 67 87 / 40 10 10 10
TUP 72 84 68 88 / 70 60 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1140 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR INDICATES ONLY A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER
EASTERN ZONES NEAR CSV. ALTHOUGH SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
-SHRA/-TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF AIRPORTS AND WILL REMOVE PRECIP MENTION FOR
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER PUSHING
ACROSS THE MID STATE WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION...BUT SOME MVFR/IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
CKV/CSV OVERNIGHT. SCT CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY
WITH VCTS BY AFTERNOON AT ALL AIRPORTS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
UPDATE...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO QUIET DOWN ACROSS THE MID STATE. OVERALL
TREND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS NVA INDICATED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN AR WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN TOWARD 12Z. WILL THEREFORE NOT REMOVE POPS ENTIRELY.
FOR THE GRID UPDATE...WILL LOWER POPS AREA WIDE AND INTRODUCE
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVER WESTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
UPDATE...
RADAR COVERAGE HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE MID STATE. MODELS LEAN TOWARD A DECREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. FURTHERMORE...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOWING NVA TOWARD 12Z ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT...LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
TENDS TO REGENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
TOWARD 12Z AS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE REENTERS THE PICTURE TOWARD
12Z. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL CUT POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP THE 40%-50% FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE MID STATE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED -TSRA CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A FEW -SHRA OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE EVENING HOURS FOR ALL AIRPORTS...BUT LACK
OF -TSRA OVER NORTHERN ZONES NO LONGER WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS AND MAY
PROMPT REMOVAL OF VCTS FROM TAFS AS WELL. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD CIRRUS
AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION BUT SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT CKV/CSV
AROUND SUNRISE. SCT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING
WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...WITH MORE VCTS BY
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH...MINIMAL ACTIVITY NORTH
BUT BETTER COVERAGE NORTHWARD INTO KY. SEMI ACTIVE PATTERN WITHIN
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT AS MINI DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING EASTWARD
WITHIN THE FLOW. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWING APPRECIABLE SURFACE BASE
CAPES WITH MAXIMUMS LOCATED ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY...AND ALSO OUR FAR
NW AND THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. THUS...THROUGH THIS EVENING STRONG
STORMS WILL BE AN ONGOING POSSIBILITY. NOT SEEING MUCH OVERNIGHT
DIVERGENCE SO NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO DEVELOP
ALTHOUGH MRH LEVELS DO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH 12Z ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
GENERAL TREND FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE
TO OUR WEST WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
INCREASE TO 85 TO 90 AREA WIDE MID/LATE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EDGES CLOSER TO MIDDLE TN.
THIS AFTERNOON/S TEMPS WERE NEAR SATURDAY/S BUT DEW POINTS WERE UP
5 TO 10 DEGREES DUE TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE. INSTABILITY IS GREATER TODAY BUT STORMS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO FIRE PARTLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL THINK SOME STORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER MIDDLE TN NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE.
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. NOT A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THIS
FRONT BUT EXPECT/HOPE IT TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT.
NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WED/THURS AS MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN
BY FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE LIMITED BY INCREASINGLY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1116 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO QUIET DOWN ACROSS THE MID STATE. OVERALL
TREND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS NVA INDICATED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN AR WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN TOWARD 12Z. WILL THEREFORE NOT REMOVE POPS ENTIRELY.
FOR THE GRID UPDATE...WILL LOWER POPS AREA WIDE AND INTRODUCE
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVER WESTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
UPDATE...
RADAR COVERAGE HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF THE MID STATE. MODELS LEAN TOWARD A DECREASE IN MOISTURE
LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. FURTHERMORE...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOWING NVA TOWARD 12Z ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT...LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
TENDS TO REGENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
TOWARD 12Z AS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE REENTERS THE PICTURE TOWARD
12Z. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL CUT POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP THE 40%-50% FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE MID STATE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED -TSRA CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A FEW -SHRA OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE EVENING HOURS FOR ALL AIRPORTS...BUT LACK
OF -TSRA OVER NORTHERN ZONES NO LONGER WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS AND MAY
PROMPT REMOVAL OF VCTS FROM TAFS AS WELL. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD CIRRUS
AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION BUT SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT CKV/CSV
AROUND SUNRISE. SCT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING
WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...WITH MORE VCTS BY
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH...MINIMAL ACTIVITY NORTH
BUT BETTER COVERAGE NORTHWARD INTO KY. SEMI ACTIVE PATTERN WITHIN
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT AS MINI DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING EASTWARD
WITHIN THE FLOW. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWING APPRECIABLE SURFACE BASE
CAPES WITH MAXIMUMS LOCATED ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY...AND ALSO OUR
FAR NW AND THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. THUS...THROUGH THIS EVENING
STRONG STORMS WILL BE AN ONGOING POSSIBILITY. NOT SEEING MUCH
OVERNIGHT DIVERGENCE SO NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP ALTHOUGH MRH LEVELS DO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH 12Z
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
GENERAL TREND FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE
TO OUR WEST WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
INCREASE TO 85 TO 90 AREA WIDE MID/LATE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EDGES CLOSER TO MIDDLE TN.
THIS AFTERNOON/S TEMPS WERE NEAR SATURDAY/S BUT DEW POINTS WERE UP
5 TO 10 DEGREES DUE TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE. INSTABILITY IS GREATER TODAY BUT STORMS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO FIRE PARTLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL THINK SOME STORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER MIDDLE TN NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE.
ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. NOT A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THIS
FRONT BUT EXPECT/HOPE IT TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT.
NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WED/THURS AS MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN
BY FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE LIMITED BY INCREASINGLY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
412 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 323 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES UNTIL 11 PM. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. DUE TO SATURATED SOILS
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOCALIZED AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TOMORROW REMAIN ACTIVE DAYS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES WERE SLOW TO COME UP THIS MORNING BUT HAVE
BEGUN TO QUICKLY RISE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT
THE SLOW HEATING WOULD DELAY INITIATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A MILD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ALSO
CONVECTION OVER THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS HAS INITIATED ONLY ABOUT A
HOUR BEHIND WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE 14Z RUC HRRR. AS SUCH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SEVERE THREAT START TIME OF 6 PM REMAINS REALISTIC. WILL
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS IT COULD BACK BUILD ALONG A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT INTO
COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST
UNTIL 2-3AM TUESDAY WHEN STRONG CAPPING WILL SETUP
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY LAST WELL PAST 3 AM.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A CONTINUAL DECREASING TREND OF CIN
VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DURING THE
SAME TIME SHOWING AN INCREASE OF SBCAPE VALUES. FORECAST SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT CONTINUE
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS.
GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...MOIST SOILS FROM PREVIOUS
RAINS...AND PWAT VALUES NEAR AN INCH WILL KEEP LOCALIZED AND FLASH
FLOODING AS A CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.
TOMORROW MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND DEEP SHEAR OF 35-45
KT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES YET
AGAIN. THE TIME FRAME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE AROUND 4 PM WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAXIMIZING AFTER 6 PM. STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 3 AM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN TO
THE PANHANDLES AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST AND BACK TO THE WEST WHICH WILL OPEN UP THE
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AXIS PLACEMENT THIS FAR OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN THE RECENT WETTING RAINS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
312 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TOMORROW REMAIN ACTIVE DAYS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES WERE SLOW TO COME UP THIS MORNING BUT HAVE
BEGUN TO QUICKLY RISE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT
THE SLOW HEATING WOULD DELAY INITIATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A MILD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ALSO
CONVECTION OVER THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS HAS INITIATED ONLY ABOUT A
HOUR BEHIND WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE 14Z RUC HRRR. AS SUCH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SEVERE THREAT START TIME OF 6 PM REMAINS REALISTIC. WILL
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER
AS IT COULD BACK BUILD ALONG A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT INTO
COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST
UNTIL 2-3AM TUESDAY WHEN STRONG CAPPING WILL SETUP
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY LAST WELL PAST 3 AM.
SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A CONTINUAL DECREASING TREND OF CIN
VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DURING THE
SAME TIME SHOWING AN INCREASE OF SBCAPE VALUES. FORECAST SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT CONTINUE
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS.
GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...MOIST SOILS FROM PREVIOUS
RAINS...AND PWAT VALUES NEAR AN INCH WILL KEEP LOCALIZED AND FLASH
FLOODING AS A CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.
TOMORROW MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND DEEP SHEAR OF 35-45
KT WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES YET
AGAIN. THE TIME FRAME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE AROUND 4 PM WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAXIMIZING AFTER 6 PM. STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 3 AM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN TO
THE PANHANDLES AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST AND BACK TO THE WEST WHICH WILL OPEN UP THE
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AXIS PLACEMENT THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN THE RECENT WETTING RAINS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
106 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
SEVERAL CHALLENGES ARE IN PLAY WITH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST AFTER
OVERNIGHT MCS SWEPT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE RED RIVER JUST BEFORE 00Z
WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE HELPS DEVELOP A POSSIBLE MCS OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX AND
LOOKS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE EVENING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS
TUESDAY. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH OVER EVOLUTION.
IN ADDITION...WIND SHIFTS AND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AT DFW METRO AIRPORTS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS DOES A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND/AFTER ANY MCS.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND NORTH
OF I-20...WEST TOWARD AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY NEAR A SURFACE
LOW AROUND ABILENE. BEST CONSENSUS TIMING FROM THE MODELS FOR
VCTS/CB IS BETWEEN 22Z-01Z AT METRO AIRPORTS FOR ACTIVITY NEAR THE
COLD FRONT. THE OTHER WINDOW WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z FOR THE
POTENTIAL MCS AT ALL AIRPORTS INCLUDING WACO. HAVE LEFT WACO OUT
FOR ANY EARLY EVENING STORMS CONSIDERING THE WEAKER FORCING AND
STRONGER SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND THREATS THROUGH
TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH A SHIFT TO WEAK
N/NE FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
METRO AIRPORTS BY THIS EVENING. BEST WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME RAIN TO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS BOUNDARY
STALLS...IT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING AND/OR CROSSING THE RED RIVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AND FINALLY...SOME ATTENTION WILL ALSO BE GIVEN TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY AND HEATING WILL ALIGN FOR A THIRD
POTENTIAL REGION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT FORM
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BUT A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT SOME SMALL HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CARRY 30 POPS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40 POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER. FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THE SHORT-TERM HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN WEST TEXAS
AND POSSIBLY REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES BUT CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
A LARGE MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY
BEFORE 6 AM AS PER THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION. THE COMPLEX SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY
FROM ITS UPPER SUPPORT AND ALSO ONCE A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DECREASES LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF. WE STILL EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS...THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
EXPECTED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF STORMS AT THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 13 AND
15Z. SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS ARE
OCCURRING WITH THE COMPLEX. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME SIMILAR
WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 6 AM. EXPECT
STORMS TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED BY MIDDAY AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
EAST/NORTHEAST ZONES.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING MORE STORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER BEFORE SURFACE HEATING IS
LOST. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
TEXAS...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...EXPERT FOR SOME UPPER
90S IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 77 92 75 95 / 30 30 30 20 20
WACO, TX 91 75 93 74 94 / 30 40 20 20 10
PARIS, TX 87 73 87 72 88 / 40 30 40 40 40
DENTON, TX 88 75 92 73 94 / 40 30 40 30 20
MCKINNEY, TX 88 73 90 73 92 / 40 30 40 30 20
DALLAS, TX 90 77 92 76 93 / 30 30 30 20 20
TERRELL, TX 88 75 91 73 92 / 60 30 30 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 91 74 91 74 92 / 60 40 20 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 95 72 92 73 92 / 30 40 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 72 92 71 95 / 30 40 30 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1110 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME RAIN TO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS BOUNDARY
STALLS...IT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING AND/OR CROSSING THE RED RIVER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AND FINALLY...SOME ATTENTION WILL ALSO BE GIVEN TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY AND HEATING WILL ALIGN FOR A THIRD
POTENTIAL REGION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT FORM
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BUT A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT SOME SMALL HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CARRY 30 POPS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40 POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER. FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THE SHORT-TERM HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN WEST TEXAS
AND POSSIBLY REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES BUT CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES
THROUGH ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40
MPH MAY STILL OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE BUT OTHERWISE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR...TEMP...SKY
TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO DECREASED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR NOW AND WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AGAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WE ARE STILL WORKING TO EVALUATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TRENDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS ALREADY
DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS ON PRECIP EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND
NOW THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY ALSO
EFFECT TRENDS. WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING ANOTHER UPDATE BY MIDDAY
AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AND EVALUATING THE 12Z/LATEST MODEL
DATA.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
A LARGE MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY
BEFORE 6 AM AS PER THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION. THE COMPLEX SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY
FROM ITS UPPER SUPPORT AND ALSO ONCE A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DECREASES LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF. WE STILL EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS...THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
EXPECTED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF STORMS AT THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 13 AND
15Z. SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS ARE
OCCURRING WITH THE COMPLEX. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME SIMILAR
WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 6 AM. EXPECT
STORMS TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED BY MIDDAY AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
EAST/NORTHEAST ZONES.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING MORE STORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER BEFORE SURFACE HEATING IS
LOST. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
TEXAS...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...EXPERT FOR SOME UPPER
90S IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 77 92 75 95 / 30 30 30 20 20
WACO, TX 91 75 93 74 94 / 30 40 20 20 10
PARIS, TX 87 73 87 72 88 / 40 30 40 40 40
DENTON, TX 88 75 92 73 94 / 40 30 40 30 20
MCKINNEY, TX 88 73 90 73 92 / 40 30 40 30 20
DALLAS, TX 90 77 92 76 93 / 30 30 30 20 20
TERRELL, TX 88 75 91 73 92 / 60 30 30 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 91 74 91 74 92 / 60 40 20 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 95 72 92 73 92 / 30 40 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 90 72 92 71 95 / 30 40 30 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
930 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES
THROUGH ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40
MPH MAY STILL OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE BUT OTHERWISE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR...TEMP...SKY
TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO DECREASED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR NOW AND WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AGAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WE ARE STILL WORKING TO EVALUATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TRENDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS ALREADY
DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS ON PRECIP EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND
NOW THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY ALSO
EFFECT TRENDS. WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING ANOTHER UPDATE BY MIDDAY
AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AND EVALUATING THE 12Z/LATEST MODEL
DATA.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
A LARGE MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY
BEFORE 6 AM AS PER THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION. THE COMPLEX SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY
FROM ITS UPPER SUPPORT AND ALSO ONCE A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DECREASES LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF. WE STILL EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS...THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
EXPECTED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF STORMS AT THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 13 AND
15Z. SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS ARE
OCCURRING WITH THE COMPLEX. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME SIMILAR
WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 6 AM. EXPECT
STORMS TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED BY MIDDAY AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
EAST/NORTHEAST ZONES.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING MORE STORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER BEFORE SURFACE HEATING IS
LOST. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
TEXAS...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...EXPERT FOR SOME UPPER
90S IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 77 92 75 95 / 100 30 30 20 20
WACO, TX 91 75 93 74 94 / 40 20 20 20 10
PARIS, TX 89 73 87 72 88 / 100 30 40 40 40
DENTON, TX 91 75 92 73 94 / 100 30 40 30 20
MCKINNEY, TX 90 73 90 73 92 / 100 30 40 30 20
DALLAS, TX 92 77 92 76 93 / 100 30 30 20 20
TERRELL, TX 91 75 91 73 92 / 100 20 30 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 91 74 91 74 92 / 100 20 20 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 91 72 92 73 92 / 20 20 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 92 72 92 71 95 / 30 30 30 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
353 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY
BEFORE 6 AM AS PER THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION. THE COMPLEX SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY
FROM ITS UPPER SUPPORT AND ALSO ONCE A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DECREASES LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF. WE STILL EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS...THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
EXPECTED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF STORMS AT THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 13 AND
15Z. SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS ARE
OCCURRING WITH THE COMPLEX. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME SIMILAR
WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 6 AM. EXPECT
STORMS TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED BY MIDDAY AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
EAST/NORTHEAST ZONES.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING MORE STORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER BEFORE SURFACE HEATING IS
LOST. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTER WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
TEXAS...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...EXPERT FOR SOME UPPER
90S IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 97 77 92 75 95 / 20 30 30 20 20
WACO, TX 95 75 93 74 94 / 10 20 20 20 10
PARIS, TX 93 73 87 72 88 / 50 30 40 40 40
DENTON, TX 98 75 92 73 94 / 40 30 40 30 20
MCKINNEY, TX 94 73 90 73 92 / 30 30 40 30 20
DALLAS, TX 96 77 92 76 93 / 20 30 30 20 20
TERRELL, TX 95 75 91 73 92 / 20 20 30 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 95 74 91 74 92 / 10 20 20 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 95 72 92 73 92 / 5 20 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 96 72 92 71 95 / 30 30 30 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
91/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1022 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SECOND FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW JERSEY
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING
IN SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 02Z/10PM.
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
ENOUGH CLEARING AND HIGH ENOUGH DEW POINTS TO ADD MORE FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LATEST WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT AND IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE ALIGNED THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND KEPT A LOW
CHANCE IN THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT.
THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.
IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
KEPT THE LIGHT POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH. PLAYED HIGHS WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO COOLER MOS VALUES FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT INCREASES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A BROAD EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT...AND A DRY MID LEVEL EASTERLY
WIND...LOOKING AT MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP
THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...NOT TOO HOT...NOT TOO COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...850 TEMPS
CREEPING TOWARD +2OC FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 80SF...TESTING 90F DEGREES FOR
THE URBAN AREAS. NO REAL FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE MTNS...SO KEPT ANY PRECIP
THREAT MAINLY DIURNAL AND PRIMARILY TARGETED TO THE MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...BUT EXPECT LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND
AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR/FZ LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION CONDITIONS...FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...INCREASED DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH LOCALLY BRIEF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA.
AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS BR...LOCALLY IFR FG...ALSO POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JC/KK/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
440 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue Tuesday
night. By Wednesday a wet and cool weather pattern will take hold
of the region. Showery and cool conditions will continue through
the week, with a drying and warming trend expected this weekend.
Wetter and cooler weather will return early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tomorrow...Offshore low pressure pushing up against
higher pressure inland has a moist and unstable flow in between.
This is being utilized by smaller mesoscale disturbances and other
triggers to generate both surface and forced elevated showers and
thunderstorms through this interval. HRRR model runs have been
utilized for the short term hours of tonight to time the breaks in
precipitation and allow for the weakening but not really
dissipating north to south oriented band of showers affecting
locations in the lowlands from near Moses Lake and up north to
Republic. Tonight a disturbances rotating around the periphery of
the incoming large scale low will fire off more showers and
thunderstorms and take them in a south to north trajectory with
storm motion near 30 mph or so through Eastern Washington and
North Idaho overnight and into Tomorrow. Number of GFS runs hint
at some of the later convection being highly organized and thus
of longer duration late tonight and into tomorrow which means
there should be a significant amount of rainfall. Thus the
forecast hints at some locations in the North Idaho Panhandle
receiving up to one and one half inches of rainfall in 24
hours...which should increase flow in area rivers and streams. In
addition to the significant rainfall and as is usually the case
gusty wind and small hail is possible near any of these
thunderstorms. /Pelatti
...PERSISTENT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING...
Wednesday through Friday: The biggest concern for the Wednesday
through Thursday time frame will be the amount of rain that will
fall over the Inland Northwest. A slow moving upper level low will
pivot through northeast Oregon into the Idaho Panhandle and stall
on Thursday into Friday. Deformation band precip (rain wrapping
around the low) should bring a prolonged period of moderate rain
to the Idaho Panhandle, western Montana and southern British
Columbia. We preferred the 00z/12z ECMWF blended the 15z SREF to
build our multi-day precipitation totals. The operational runs of
the NAM and GFS aren`t terribly different with their placement of
the upper low and other mass fields, but these operational models
do become noisy from time to time with convective feedback. The
ensemble SREF and coarser EC suffer from less feedback which will
hopefully lead to a better basin average precipitation forecast.
The highest precipitation totals from early Wednesday morning
through Friday will likely occur over the Idaho Panhandle, namely
Bonner, Boundary and Shoshone counties where as much as 2 to 2.5
inches of rain will be possible through Friday. Areas in far
northeast Washington around Metaline Falls, Newport, and Northport
could get up to 2 inches as well. Rainfall rates don`t appear to
be particularly heavy, but the ECMWF and SREF (which will be
conservative) suggest the heaviest rates will occur Wednesday
morning with as much as a half to three quarters of an inch in 6
hours within a localized band. Most areas should be able to handle
these precipitation rates. The 12z-18z NAM has almost double these
rain rates (up to 1.25 inches per 6 hours) which could cause some
problems on creeks and small streams.
Concern Area #1: The Idaho Panhandle and southeast British
Columbia. A Flood Watch may be necessary for Wednesday for
portions of the Idaho Panhandle for creeks and small streams.
Another concern will be the large amount of precipitation from
Wednesday through Friday over the Kootenai Basin in southeast BC,
NW Montana and far north Idaho. Rises are forecast on the Kootenai
at Bonners Ferry. The potential for more rain next week is not
particularly good news, but it is early to say whether rains next
week will be significant enough to generate run-off.
Concern Area #2: The burn scars in central Washington around
Wenatchee, Chelan and Entiat. Fortunately, the deformation band
with the upper low will be well east of the burn scar area on
Wednesday. There is a small chance on Thursday, that this band
will pivot into central Washington, but it will not likely
maintain precipitation intensity into Thursday. There will also
be a small chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday. The atmosphere
does not appear to be particularly unstable with a 500mb temp of
only -18C to -19C. There should also be a good deal of low
cloudiness Wednesday which should inhibit surface heating
throughout the day. All-in-all, the threat of flash flood appears
to be low over the burn scars through Friday. /GKoch
Friday Night thru Sunday Night... Lingering showers and cool
temperatures will continue over eastern sections of the CWA Friday
night as the persistent upper low slowly moves east from the
southern part of the Idaho Panhandle. Differences in timing
between the EC and GFS cast doubt on how fast the system will move
east on Saturday and while the Cascades and Basin will have mostly
clear skies and warming temperatures, showers may linger over the
Idaho Panhandle. By Saturday night and early Sunday all models
agree that the CWA will be in between systems and under a weak
short wave ridge. The EC then brings in the next system off the
Pacific by Sunday afternoon with an increasing threat for showers
over the Cascades. Precip is on the increase Sunday night as the
ridge moves quickly east and the flows becomes westerly. JL
Monday and Tuesday...It looks like another moist storm system will
be affecting the Inland Northwest next week, bringing increased
rain chances to many areas. There is decent model agreement
regarding this system, with only some slight timing differences.
We went ahead and bumped up precipitation chances, especially
along the Cascade crest. With what is going to fall over the next
couple of days, anything of significance rainfall wise may cause
some hydrology issues. This is definitely something to watch out
for. ty
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Another round of showers and thunderstorms will affect all
of the TAF sites this evening with moderate rain and some MVFR
cigs. A band of moderate to heavy rain will develop late tonight
along the WA/ID border, and persist through much of Wednesday. This
will bring IFR conditions to most of the eastern TAF sites all day.
KGEG will be on the western edge of this band and conditions may
improve a bit in the late afternoon. KSFF and certainly KCOE will
feel the brunt of this event. To the south, KPUW and LWS may see
some improvement in the afternoon but I didn`t have enough
confidence in this. KMWH and KEAT should remain out of the action
for the most part and will actually have better conditions tomorrow
than today. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 54 45 55 44 61 / 80 100 80 80 50 60
Coeur d`Alene 52 54 46 54 42 60 / 90 100 100 90 50 60
Pullman 49 53 44 56 42 60 / 80 100 70 60 30 60
Lewiston 54 58 49 64 44 67 / 70 100 70 60 20 50
Colville 51 63 50 57 48 67 / 90 100 100 100 60 50
Sandpoint 50 56 46 53 45 60 / 100 100 100 100 60 60
Kellogg 50 51 44 51 39 57 / 100 100 100 100 50 60
Moses Lake 55 66 51 65 49 69 / 70 50 50 60 30 30
Wenatchee 56 66 52 64 51 68 / 40 40 50 60 40 30
Omak 53 66 51 64 50 69 / 60 80 70 80 60 50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1056 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
An increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms comes to the
Inland Northwest today through Tuesday. By Wednesday downright wet
and cool weather envelopes the region. Expect a gradual cool down
starting today, with afternoon temperatures bottoming out well
below normal by Wednesday. Showery, cool conditions will continue
through the week, with a drying and warming trend by the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Updates may occur before the 3 PM afternoon zone issuance as a
number of recent HRRR runs have a persistent trend in forming very
fast moving elevated convection across the far western part of the
forecast area starting near 4 pm and on through the evening.
Otherwise to complicated the matter elevated convective showers
from last night along with new surface based convection should
continue to clutter primarily the northern third of the forecast
area. Best way to convey this situation is probably with the
description above rather than point probabilities and forecast zone
wording. 12Z KOTX sounding shows storm motion to the northeast at
15 mph or so for surface based convection but the elevated type
near the west side of the forecast area should move faster to the
northeast at near 35 mph or so (per quick view of GFS 1-6KM AGL
mean wind-speed for 00Z Tuesday). Any thunderstorms that form
should be of the weak pulse variety. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Low pressure off the coast next to inland ridge of high
pressure will allow a somewhat warm and unstable flow from the
south to allow for the possibility of convective showers and
thunderstorms for TAF sites. Surface based showers and
thunderstorms should occur primarily over the Mountains to the
north of Northeast Washington and North Idaho while elevated
showers and thunderstorms should occur after 00Z Tuesday and on
through the evening and overnight, possibly lingering on as
various disturbances move up from the south and on into 18Z
Tuesday. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 82 56 75 50 58 46 / 20 50 50 80 100 70
Coeur d`Alene 81 55 75 51 55 46 / 20 50 50 80 100 80
Pullman 81 50 72 47 59 43 / 10 20 50 70 90 70
Lewiston 88 57 82 54 66 49 / 10 20 40 70 70 70
Colville 83 53 79 50 60 47 / 30 50 60 80 100 80
Sandpoint 82 52 81 49 56 44 / 30 50 50 90 100 80
Kellogg 79 55 80 50 54 44 / 20 20 40 90 100 80
Moses Lake 86 57 75 54 66 50 / 10 50 50 50 60 40
Wenatchee 83 60 74 56 64 52 / 20 40 60 40 60 40
Omak 83 54 77 52 65 49 / 20 40 70 60 100 60
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1255 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGING
BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND TROUGHING OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW...TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE NEAR FARGO NORTH
DAKOTA AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. 700-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FARGO SHORTWAVE HELPING TO SUPPORT SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. TALKING ABOUT HIGH BASED...
00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS BOTH DEPICTED MIXING UP TO 750MB...WITH
DEEP INVERTED-V APPEARANCE BELOW. THIS DEEP MIXING ALLOWED FOR
SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH MPX AROUND RAOB RELEASE TIME TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS OF 30-50KT. THESE SHOWERS WERE MORE VIGOROUS THEN THOSE
OCCURRING NOW...PLUS THEY OCCURRED RIGHT AFTER PEAK HEATING WHEN
MIXING WAS AT ITS MAXIMUM...ALLOWING FOR THE STRONG GUST POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. 850MB
TEMPS AT 00Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE 14-16C AT MPX...GRB AND
DVN...COMPARED TO 4C BEHIND THE FRONT UP AT PICKLE LAKE IN NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH DEEP MIXING EXISTED ON THAT MPX SOUNDING...THE
HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWED FOR THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TO JUMP
UP TO 0.93 INCHES AS OF 00Z...COMPARED TO 0.44 12 HOURS EARLIER.
THUS...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FARGO SHORTWAVE.
MODEL TRENDS FOR TODAY HAVE REALLY SHIFTED THE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA NORTH COMPARED TO THE 16.00Z CYCLE. MODEL
CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO ENDS UP
CROSSING CLARK COUNTY AT 00Z TUESDAY...COMPARED TO SAY LA CROSSE.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FARTHER NORTH TODAY...THE COLD FRONT
ONLY DROPS SOUTH TO MAYBE THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 00Z. COMBINATION OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TO YIELD SOME
DPVA AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. COULD EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY
SOUTH OF THERE TOWARDS I-90 VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FRONTAL
FORCING APPROACHES. DEEP MIXING AGAIN LOOKS LIKELY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL OF 7500-9500
FT AGL FROM CLARK COUNTY SOUTHWARD...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO PERHAPS EVEN SOME MID 80S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. COMBINATION OF THE TWO RESULTS IN
0-1KM MLCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG IN THE AREA ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT MUCH...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO BOTH ADD
THUNDERSTORMS AND MAKE THE SHOWERS MORE VIGOROUS. FREEZING LEVELS
ARE LOW...9500-1000 FT AGL AT 21Z WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
HAIL...BUT THE MINIMAL CAPE WHICH IS TALL AND SKINNY MAY KEEP ANY
HAIL SMALL. BIGGER CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE WIND GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING
YIELDING DEEP INVERTED-V LOOKS ON A SKEW-T. COULD SEE STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS...JUST LIKE WHAT WENT THROUGH MINNEAPOLIS AROUND
00Z LAST EVENING.
THE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
00Z AS LOSS OF HEATING KNOCKS DOWN CAPE. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH...AIDED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS PERSISTING ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THIS SHORTWAVE...PERHAPS
MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 17.00Z GFS. 17.00Z NAM/UKMET ARE JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER. IN ANY EVENT...DPVA AND A LOWERING TROPOPAUSE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN PLACE ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. THUS...THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE KEEPING ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY
GOING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
TUESDAY...ATTENTION IS ON THAT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z. AGAIN...WITH MODELS SPEEDING
UP THE SHORTWAVE...THE WAVE PRETTY MUCH EXITS THE AREA BY
18Z...REACHING NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 00Z. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER CONSENSUS ON WHETHER THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE 17.00Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF AND
HIRES NMM/ARW ALL NOW DEPICTING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BELIEVE
THE REASON THE QPF IS LIGHT IS THAT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOT
ALL THAT GREAT...AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WITH ALL MODELS DEPICTING A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PER
500MB PROGS...THE FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
GETS GOING. THUS...HAVE ADDED 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...HIGHEST TUESDAY MORNING. THESE CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE AND A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
UPPER MICHIGAN WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY. HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
END UP IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND DURING THIS
PERIOD...FORCING RIDGING TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS SETUP WOULD PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS...FAVORABLE FOR HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
TRUE ACCORDING TO MODELS...AND WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST A DRY
FORECAST. HOWEVER...17.00Z NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS THROW A
MONKEY WRENCH INTO THIS PLAN...AS THESE MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED SHORTWAVE BARRELING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS END UP BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE 17.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET SHOW A MUCH WEAKER REFLECTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE
AS WELL AS SLOWER SPEED. AS A RESULT...THESE MODELS WOULD FAVOR THE
PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST. HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NEED SOME WATCHING. OTHERWISE...A COOL
NIGHT LOOKS ON TAP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN
PLACE. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S. GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY DRIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST...AS WELL AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM DAYTIME HEATING
TAKING PLACE.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SIMPLY STATED...MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY...DEALING
WITH CAP CONCERNS AND POTENTIAL FOR MCSS.
17.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE TROUGHING
THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SOUTHEAST CANADA IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SLOWLY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY. THE MOTIONS OF THE TWO TROUGHS ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AS VARIOUS MCSS FORM. RUN-TO-RUN
MODEL CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS AGREEMENT ON THE MCS TRACKS IS FAIRLY
LOW...AND TO BE EXPECTED. THE ONLY WELL AGREED UPON MCS APPEARS TO
BE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHERE AN MCS FORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
TRACKS EAST INTO NORTHERN WI SAT MORNING. THUS...FOLLOWING A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES YIELDS 40-60 PERCENT CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY...HIGHEST TOWARDS NORTHERN WI.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS TOO THAT CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH AS 700MB TEMPS OVER 12C BEGIN ADVECTING TOWARDS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GIVEN THE MCS POTENTIAL AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS PROGGED IN THE 3500-4500 FT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXTREMELY TRICKY AS THEY DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTION
EVOLVES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND RAISED
HIGHS. HOWEVER...THESE MAY NEED FURTHER INCREASES IF SAY THE CURRENT
17.00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE CORRECT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHERE ON
SATURDAY THEY BOOST 850MB TEMPS UP TO 20-24C...OR 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS COULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY EVEN MID 90S IF THIS COMES TRUE. EVAPOTRANSPORATION AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BOOST DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S...WHICH
THIS LATENT HEATING WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM GETTING MUCH HIGHER THAN
THAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF SITES.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...GIVEN
THE ISOLATED NATURE...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
IT EDGES SOUTH TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. IF STORMS MAKE
IT TO THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTING WIND OF 30 TO
40 KTS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 4500 TO
6000 FT RANGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THESE SOUTH AND WEST
OF KLSE LATE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
637 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGING
BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND TROUGHING OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW...TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE NEAR FARGO NORTH
DAKOTA AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. 700-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FARGO SHORTWAVE HELPING TO SUPPORT SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. TALKING ABOUT HIGH BASED...
00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS BOTH DEPICTED MIXING UP TO 750MB...WITH
DEEP INVERTED-V APPEARANCE BELOW. THIS DEEP MIXING ALLOWED FOR
SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH MPX AROUND RAOB RELEASE TIME TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS OF 30-50KT. THESE SHOWERS WERE MORE VIGOROUS THEN THOSE
OCCURRING NOW...PLUS THEY OCCURRED RIGHT AFTER PEAK HEATING WHEN
MIXING WAS AT ITS MAXIMUM...ALLOWING FOR THE STRONG GUST POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. 850MB
TEMPS AT 00Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE 14-16C AT MPX...GRB AND
DVN...COMPARED TO 4C BEHIND THE FRONT UP AT PICKLE LAKE IN NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH DEEP MIXING EXISTED ON THAT MPX SOUNDING...THE
HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWED FOR THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TO JUMP
UP TO 0.93 INCHES AS OF 00Z...COMPARED TO 0.44 12 HOURS EARLIER.
THUS...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FARGO SHORTWAVE.
MODEL TRENDS FOR TODAY HAVE REALLY SHIFTED THE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA NORTH COMPARED TO THE 16.00Z CYCLE. MODEL
CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO ENDS UP
CROSSING CLARK COUNTY AT 00Z TUESDAY...COMPARED TO SAY LA CROSSE.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FARTHER NORTH TODAY...THE COLD FRONT
ONLY DROPS SOUTH TO MAYBE THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 00Z. COMBINATION OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TO YIELD SOME
DPVA AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. COULD EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY
SOUTH OF THERE TOWARDS I-90 VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FRONTAL
FORCING APPROACHES. DEEP MIXING AGAIN LOOKS LIKELY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL OF 7500-9500
FT AGL FROM CLARK COUNTY SOUTHWARD...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO PERHAPS EVEN SOME MID 80S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. COMBINATION OF THE TWO RESULTS IN
0-1KM MLCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG IN THE AREA ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT MUCH...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO BOTH ADD
THUNDERSTORMS AND MAKE THE SHOWERS MORE VIGOROUS. FREEZING LEVELS
ARE LOW...9500-1000 FT AGL AT 21Z WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
HAIL...BUT THE MINIMAL CAPE WHICH IS TALL AND SKINNY MAY KEEP ANY
HAIL SMALL. BIGGER CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE WIND GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING
YIELDING DEEP INVERTED-V LOOKS ON A SKEW-T. COULD SEE STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS...JUST LIKE WHAT WENT THROUGH MINNEAPOLIS AROUND
00Z LAST EVENING.
THE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
00Z AS LOSS OF HEATING KNOCKS DOWN CAPE. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH...AIDED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS PERSISTING ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THIS SHORTWAVE...PERHAPS
MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 17.00Z GFS. 17.00Z NAM/UKMET ARE JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER. IN ANY EVENT...DPVA AND A LOWERING TROPOPAUSE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN PLACE ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. THUS...THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE KEEPING ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY
GOING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
TUESDAY...ATTENTION IS ON THAT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z. AGAIN...WITH MODELS SPEEDING
UP THE SHORTWAVE...THE WAVE PRETTY MUCH EXITS THE AREA BY
18Z...REACHING NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 00Z. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER CONSENSUS ON WHETHER THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE 17.00Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF AND
HIRES NMM/ARW ALL NOW DEPICTING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BELIEVE
THE REASON THE QPF IS LIGHT IS THAT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOT
ALL THAT GREAT...AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WITH ALL MODELS DEPICTING A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PER
500MB PROGS...THE FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
GETS GOING. THUS...HAVE ADDED 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...HIGHEST TUESDAY MORNING. THESE CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE AND A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
UPPER MICHIGAN WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY. HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
END UP IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND DURING THIS
PERIOD...FORCING RIDGING TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS SETUP WOULD PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS...FAVORABLE FOR HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
TRUE ACCORDING TO MODELS...AND WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST A DRY
FORECAST. HOWEVER...17.00Z NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS THROW A
MONKEY WRENCH INTO THIS PLAN...AS THESE MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED SHORTWAVE BARRELING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS END UP BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE 17.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET SHOW A MUCH WEAKER REFLECTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE
AS WELL AS SLOWER SPEED. AS A RESULT...THESE MODELS WOULD FAVOR THE
PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST. HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NEED SOME WATCHING. OTHERWISE...A COOL
NIGHT LOOKS ON TAP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN
PLACE. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S. GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY DRIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST...AS WELL AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM DAYTIME HEATING
TAKING PLACE.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SIMPLY STATED...MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY...DEALING
WITH CAP CONCERNS AND POTENTIAL FOR MCSS.
17.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE TROUGHING
THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SOUTHEAST CANADA IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SLOWLY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY. THE MOTIONS OF THE TWO TROUGHS ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AS VARIOUS MCSS FORM. RUN-TO-RUN
MODEL CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS AGREEMENT ON THE MCS TRACKS IS FAIRLY
LOW...AND TO BE EXPECTED. THE ONLY WELL AGREED UPON MCS APPEARS TO
BE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHERE AN MCS FORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
TRACKS EAST INTO NORTHERN WI SAT MORNING. THUS...FOLLOWING A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES YIELDS 40-60 PERCENT CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY...HIGHEST TOWARDS NORTHERN WI.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS TOO THAT CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH AS 700MB TEMPS OVER 12C BEGIN ADVECTING TOWARDS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GIVEN THE MCS POTENTIAL AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS PROGGED IN THE 3500-4500 FT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXTREMELY TRICKY AS THEY DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTION
EVOLVES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND RAISED
HIGHS. HOWEVER...THESE MAY NEED FURTHER INCREASES IF SAY THE CURRENT
17.00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE CORRECT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHERE ON
SATURDAY THEY BOOST 850MB TEMPS UP TO 20-24C...OR 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS COULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY EVEN MID 90S IF THIS COMES TRUE. EVAPOTRANSPORATION AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BOOST DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S...WHICH
THIS LATENT HEATING WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM GETTING MUCH HIGHER THAN
THAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
CLOUDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO CIRRUS AND DIURNAL CUMULUS
IN THE 5K-6K FT RANGE...IN A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH THE MIXING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 10KT...GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS...EXPECTED FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WDLY
SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS UNTIL BETTER DETAILS OF ANY TIMING/COVERAGE
EMERGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA
AND AN INCREASE OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TAF SITES. DID CARRY VCSH IN TAF
AFTER 06-07Z AND CIGS IN THE 4K TO 5K FT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. AT
THIS TIME...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING/COVERAGE TO INCLUDE A
TSRA/CB MENTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
307 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGING
BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND TROUGHING OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW...TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE NEAR FARGO NORTH
DAKOTA AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. 700-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FARGO SHORTWAVE HELPING TO SUPPORT SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. TALKING ABOUT HIGH BASED...
00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS BOTH DEPICTED MIXING UP TO 750MB...WITH
DEEP INVERTED-V APPEARANCE BELOW. THIS DEEP MIXING ALLOWED FOR
SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH MPX AROUND RAOB RELEASE TIME TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS OF 30-50KT. THESE SHOWERS WERE MORE VIGOROUS THEN THOSE
OCCURRING NOW...PLUS THEY OCCURRED RIGHT AFTER PEAK HEATING WHEN
MIXING WAS AT ITS MAXIMUM...ALLOWING FOR THE STRONG GUST POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. 850MB
TEMPS AT 00Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE 14-16C AT MPX...GRB AND
DVN...COMPARED TO 4C BEHIND THE FRONT UP AT PICKLE LAKE IN NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH DEEP MIXING EXISTED ON THAT MPX SOUNDING...THE
HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWED FOR THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TO JUMP
UP TO 0.93 INCHES AS OF 00Z...COMPARED TO 0.44 12 HOURS EARLIER.
THUS...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FARGO SHORTWAVE.
MODEL TRENDS FOR TODAY HAVE REALLY SHIFTED THE SHORTWAVE COMING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA NORTH COMPARED TO THE 16.00Z CYCLE. MODEL
CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO ENDS UP
CROSSING CLARK COUNTY AT 00Z TUESDAY...COMPARED TO SAY LA CROSSE.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FARTHER NORTH TODAY...THE COLD FRONT
ONLY DROPS SOUTH TO MAYBE THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 00Z. COMBINATION OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TO YIELD SOME
DPVA AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. COULD EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY
SOUTH OF THERE TOWARDS I-90 VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FRONTAL
FORCING APPROACHES. DEEP MIXING AGAIN LOOKS LIKELY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL OF 7500-9500
FT AGL FROM CLARK COUNTY SOUTHWARD...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO PERHAPS EVEN SOME MID 80S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. COMBINATION OF THE TWO RESULTS IN
0-1KM MLCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG IN THE AREA ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT MUCH...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO BOTH ADD
THUNDERSTORMS AND MAKE THE SHOWERS MORE VIGOROUS. FREEZING LEVELS
ARE LOW...9500-1000 FT AGL AT 21Z WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
HAIL...BUT THE MINIMAL CAPE WHICH IS TALL AND SKINNY MAY KEEP ANY
HAIL SMALL. BIGGER CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE WIND GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING
YIELDING DEEP INVERTED-V LOOKS ON A SKEW-T. COULD SEE STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS...JUST LIKE WHAT WENT THROUGH MINNEAPOLIS AROUND
00Z LAST EVENING.
THE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
00Z AS LOSS OF HEATING KNOCKS DOWN CAPE. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH...AIDED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS PERSISTING ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THIS SHORTWAVE...PERHAPS
MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 17.00Z GFS. 17.00Z NAM/UKMET ARE JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER. IN ANY EVENT...DPVA AND A LOWERING TROPOPAUSE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN PLACE ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. THUS...THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE KEEPING ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY
GOING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
TUESDAY...ATTENTION IS ON THAT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z. AGAIN...WITH MODELS SPEEDING
UP THE SHORTWAVE...THE WAVE PRETTY MUCH EXITS THE AREA BY
18Z...REACHING NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 00Z. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER CONSENSUS ON WHETHER THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE 17.00Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF AND
HIRES NMM/ARW ALL NOW DEPICTING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BELIEVE
THE REASON THE QPF IS LIGHT IS THAT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOT
ALL THAT GREAT...AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
HOWEVER...WITH ALL MODELS DEPICTING A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PER
500MB PROGS...THE FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
GETS GOING. THUS...HAVE ADDED 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST...HIGHEST TUESDAY MORNING. THESE CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE AND A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
UPPER MICHIGAN WILL YIELD A COOLER DAY. HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
END UP IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND DURING THIS
PERIOD...FORCING RIDGING TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS SETUP WOULD PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS...FAVORABLE FOR HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS
TRUE ACCORDING TO MODELS...AND WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST A DRY
FORECAST. HOWEVER...17.00Z NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS THROW A
MONKEY WRENCH INTO THIS PLAN...AS THESE MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED SHORTWAVE BARRELING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS END UP BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE 17.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET SHOW A MUCH WEAKER REFLECTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE
AS WELL AS SLOWER SPEED. AS A RESULT...THESE MODELS WOULD FAVOR THE
PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST. HAVE STAYED WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NEED SOME WATCHING. OTHERWISE...A COOL
NIGHT LOOKS ON TAP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN
PLACE. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S. GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY DRIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST...AS WELL AS AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM DAYTIME HEATING
TAKING PLACE.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SIMPLY STATED...MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY...DEALING
WITH CAP CONCERNS AND POTENTIAL FOR MCSS.
17.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE TROUGHING
THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SOUTHEAST CANADA IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SLOWLY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY. THE MOTIONS OF THE TWO TROUGHS ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AS VARIOUS MCSS FORM. RUN-TO-RUN
MODEL CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS AGREEMENT ON THE MCS TRACKS IS FAIRLY
LOW...AND TO BE EXPECTED. THE ONLY WELL AGREED UPON MCS APPEARS TO
BE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHERE AN MCS FORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
TRACKS EAST INTO NORTHERN WI SAT MORNING. THUS...FOLLOWING A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES YIELDS 40-60 PERCENT CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY...HIGHEST TOWARDS NORTHERN WI.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS TOO THAT CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH AS 700MB TEMPS OVER 12C BEGIN ADVECTING TOWARDS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GIVEN THE MCS POTENTIAL AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS PROGGED IN THE 3500-4500 FT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXTREMELY TRICKY AS THEY DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTION
EVOLVES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND RAISED
HIGHS. HOWEVER...THESE MAY NEED FURTHER INCREASES IF SAY THE CURRENT
17.00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE CORRECT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHERE ON
SATURDAY THEY BOOST 850MB TEMPS UP TO 20-24C...OR 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS COULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO
POSSIBLY EVEN MID 90S IF THIS COMES TRUE. EVAPOTRANSPORATION AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD HELP BOOST DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S...WHICH
THIS LATENT HEATING WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM GETTING MUCH HIGHER THAN
THAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ON
MONDAY...AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY HOLDS MORE TO THE NORTH
THOUGH UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SECONDARY...STRONGER PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY AND
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAKES THE BOUNDARY A PRIME PLACE FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHRA/TS. ANY PCPN THAT DOES GET GOING WOULD HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR ENHANCED GUSTINESS...WITH A DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DEPICTED
IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVORING THE HIGHER GUST POTENTIAL.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PCPN
CHANCES LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT - BETTER OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. WILL PUSH THE VCSH SHOWER MENTION PAST
00Z...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR A SHRA/TS IS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
CONVECTION THAT FIRED UP ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA REMAINS INTACT
AS IT HEADS INTO TWIN CITIES METRO AREA THIS EVENING. MSP AIRPORT
GUSTED TO NEAR 60 MPH AS IT CAME THROUGH. RADAR RETURNS ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL MIXED LOW-LEVELS /
UP TO 700 MB / AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS ALSO
HELPING TO PUT DOWN STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DCAPE IS BETWEEN
1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND THIS EXTENDS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. EXPECTING THIS COMPLEX TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY
PERSIST INTO PARTS OF THE AREA. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECTING 30
TO 40 MPH GUSTS. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
MINOR RAIN THREATS TO START THE WEEK SEEM LIKE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THIS FORECAST WITH OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET FLOW.
STUNNING FATHERS DAY IN PROGRESS WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND MUCH NEEDED
DRYING. UNFORTUNATELY CANT KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST LONG THESE
DAYS AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE WAVES
ARE SPINNING OFF CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...STILL SEEING
CONVECTION UPSTREAM THAT COULD WORK INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY FURTHER SOUTH INTO MONDAY. CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM STORM
COMPLEX OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALSO SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF NEAR TERM...MODELS STRUGGLING WITH RESOLUTION OF THESE
EMBEDDED WAVES BUT WITH POSSIBLE STRONGER ENERGY MONDAY...BOUNDARY
AND PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING UPPER LOW...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
MINOR MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH MODEST NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW.
EVEN THOUGH LAST IN SERIES OF SHORT WAVES COULD IMPACT AREA ON
TUESDAY...DRYING AIRMASS AND SURFACE RIDGE SUGGESTS THIS COULD
COUNTER ANY THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST
RIDING SINCE CHANCES FOR RAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO FAR.
COOL AIRMASS WILL DIP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE FAVORED VALLEYS COULD SEE A LITTLE FOG. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALREADY RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BUT BULK OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN WEEK AS ANY
APPROACHING PRECIPITATION BATTLES DRIER AIR TO THE EAST.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALSO TAKES PLACE AS HEIGHTS RISE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
NATIONAL DISCUSSION SUMMARIZED IT WELL WITH THE WORD MESSY REGARDING
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WHILE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER NATIONS MID
SECTION GROWS INITIALLY...SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF TROUGH OVER
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL FORCING AND RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF
AREA. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST WILL BE SHUNTED OFF EVENTUALLY BUT COULD
HOLD BULK OF RAIN THREAT OFF ON THURSDAY...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS
AREA WIDE BY FRIDAY.
RIDGE FLATTENS QUITE A BIT BY NEXT WEEKEND AND WITH STRONGER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF STATES COULD VERY WELL
SEE SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS /MCS/. HARD TO
PUT ANY IDEA OF TIMING SO GENERAL RAIN CHANCES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
LOOK REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
A WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ON
MONDAY...AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY HOLDS MORE TO THE NORTH
THOUGH UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SECONDARY...STRONGER PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY AND
WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAKES THE BOUNDARY A PRIME PLACE FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHRA/TS. ANY PCPN THAT DOES GET GOING WOULD HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR ENHANCED GUSTINESS...WITH A DRY NEAR SFC LAYER DEPICTED
IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVORING THE HIGHER GUST POTENTIAL.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PCPN
CHANCES LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT - BETTER OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. WILL PUSH THE VCSH SHOWER MENTION PAST
00Z...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR A SHRA/TS IS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......ZT
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
947 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WERE OVER THE FAR EAST PART OF THE CWA.
MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE CWA HAS
AIDED IN THE FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KCYS
TO KIBM LATE THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN A
RECENT UPDATE HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PANHANDLE SINCE 01Z.
THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED EAST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THAT FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 04Z. HAVE KEPT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE PANHANDLE
UNTIL THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...CLEARING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE CWA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR EARLY TONIGHT
AND MINOR CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS.
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OUT WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY AIDING IN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS OUT WEST. A
PRETTY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE HERE AT
CHEYENNE. FURTHER EAST IN THE PANHANDLE...LOW TO MID 50 TDS ARE
BEING REPORTED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AROUND 600-1000 J/KG
AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AT ZERO. STILL CAPPED SOME OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES WITH ROUGHLY 50-75
J/KG...BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON.
THINKING A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY CONVECTION WISE...THOUGH COULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THAT LITTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING BY 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWING
INDIVIDUAL CELLS DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...THEN
CONGEALING INTO A LINE NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AFTER 00Z.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO COME TO AN END MID EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 03Z OR SO. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST AS WELL...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING TO
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY DRY AND WINDY DAY AS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS SHOWING THESE WINDS CLIMBING TO NEAR
40KTS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GOOD MID LEVEL WARMING AS WELL
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM +10C THIS AFTERNOON TO +16C
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LEESIDE TROUGH STILL HANGS OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL A GOOD BET OUT THAT WAY.
FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST
MOVES INLAND TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG
OVER OUR CWFA...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES COOL SOME...DOWN TO +10 TO
+12C. SO THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER WEDNESDAY BY A
FEW DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
REX BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN NOAM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE MEANDERING PACNW CLOSED LOW FILLS AND MOVES OUT
ONTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE DEPTH AT WHICH IT DOES SO WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND WILL CARRY RESIDUAL IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER.
ON FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SWING FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN ITS PLACEMENT NR THE ID/MT STATELINE BY EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SO HAVE CONFINED CONVECTIVE CHANCES THERE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL SWING THROUGH MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS LLVL MOISTURE DEEPENS AND BACKS UP INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CAPE VALUES THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. SATURDAY LOOKS TO PROVIDE THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND BEGIN TO HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS WELL...WHICH WILL AID IN THE
SURFACING OF GUSTIER WINDS ALOFT.
H7 TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 13 AND 15C THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INCREASE TO 17C BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
EVEN SOME MID AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S OUT ON THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FAR EAST AND FAR SOUTH PARTS OF
THE CWA THROUGH 08Z. SOME OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 KNOTS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. ZONES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO SEE WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BEGINNING MID MORNING WEDNESDAY
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDIEST TIME PERIODS LOOK TO BE
LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OUT WEST WILL
FALL TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WITH THESE
STRONG WINDS. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WINDS WILL BE LESS WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. SINCE ALL ZONES ARE STILL REPORTING
FUELS AS NOT READY FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH...NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW OR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WEILAND
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...WEILAND
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
734 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PANHANDLE SINCE 01Z.
THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED EAST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THAT FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 04Z. HAVE KEPT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE PANHANDLE
UNTIL THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...CLEARING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE CWA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR EARLY TONIGHT
AND MINOR CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS.
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OUT WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY AIDING IN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS OUT WEST. A
PRETTY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE HERE AT
CHEYENNE. FURTHER EAST IN THE PANHANDLE...LOW TO MID 50 TDS ARE
BEING REPORTED. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AROUND 600-1000 J/KG
AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AT ZERO. STILL CAPPED SOME OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES WITH ROUGHLY 50-75
J/KG...BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE AWAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON.
THINKING A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY CONVECTION WISE...THOUGH COULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THAT LITTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING BY 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWING
INDIVIDUAL CELLS DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...THEN
CONGEALING INTO A LINE NEAR THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER AFTER 00Z.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO COME TO AN END MID EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 03Z OR SO. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST AS WELL...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING TO
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY DRY AND WINDY DAY AS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS SHOWING THESE WINDS CLIMBING TO NEAR
40KTS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GOOD MID LEVEL WARMING AS WELL
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM +10C THIS AFTERNOON TO +16C
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LEESIDE TROUGH STILL HANGS OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL A GOOD BET OUT THAT WAY.
FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST
MOVES INLAND TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG
OVER OUR CWFA...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES COOL SOME...DOWN TO +10 TO
+12C. SO THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER WEDNESDAY BY A
FEW DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
REX BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN NOAM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE MEANDERING PACNW CLOSED LOW FILLS AND MOVES OUT
ONTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE DEPTH AT WHICH IT DOES SO WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND WILL CARRY RESIDUAL IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER.
ON FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SWING FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN ITS PLACEMENT NR THE ID/MT STATELINE BY EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SO HAVE CONFINED CONVECTIVE CHANCES THERE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL SWING THROUGH MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS LLVL MOISTURE DEEPENS AND BACKS UP INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CAPE VALUES THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. SATURDAY LOOKS TO PROVIDE THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE DAKOTAS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND BEGIN TO HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS WELL...WHICH WILL AID IN THE
SURFACING OF GUSTIER WINDS ALOFT.
H7 TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 13 AND 15C THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INCREASE TO 17C BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
EVEN SOME MID AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S OUT ON THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 733 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. THOSE STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. ZONES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LOOK TO SEE WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BEGINNING MID MORNING WEDNESDAY
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDIEST TIME PERIODS LOOK TO BE
LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNSET. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OUT WEST WILL
FALL TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WITH THESE
STRONG WINDS. EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WINDS WILL BE LESS WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. SINCE ALL ZONES ARE STILL REPORTING
FUELS AS NOT READY FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH...NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW OR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WEILAND
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...WEILAND
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RIVERTON WY
240 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THEIR ADJACENT VALLEYS AND BASINS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYLIGHT THIS EVENING...BUT ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER...STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO START DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LARGER HAIL. THESE STRONGER STORMS SEEM MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS
JOHNSON COUNTY...BUT THE EXTENT OF STRONGER STORM COVERAGE MAY NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AGAIN DECREASING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING. WIND WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOUTHEASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THE THUNDERSTORMS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY WANING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH OF THE WIND
RIVER RANGE...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE 0.50 PRECIPITABLE WATER LINE.
ON WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN ON TUESDAY WITH MODELS
SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO UNDER 0.50 FOR ALL AREAS. ANY
CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WHERE
THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND SOMEWHAT MORE
INSTABILITY DUE TO A CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
IDAHO. WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE RED DESERT THROUGH ROCK SPRINGS. IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE HIGH WIND SINCE 700 MILLIBAR WINDS ARE NOT STRONG
ENOUGH...BUT SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 10 PERCENT BUT NO RED FLAGS AT THIS
TIME SINCE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL YET. THE DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL
BRING A WARM DAY WITH SOME BASINS SEEING HIGHS AROUND 90. LITTLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT COULD GET QUITE CHILLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS...WITH EVEN
SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE MORE PROTECTED SPOTS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LESS WIND AS
WELL. AS FOR ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WE CAN NOT RULE SOMETHING
OUT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO FOR WE
TRIMMED POPS A BIT ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND KEPT ANY ACTIVITY
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE. AS A SIDE NOTE...THE SUMMER SOLSTICE IS AT
11:04 PM ON THURSDAY NIGHT SO THAT IS WHEN SUMMER ARRIVES.
AND NOW...TO CELEBRATE THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SUMMER...WE PRESENT THE
DISCUSSION OF FRIDAY WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL VERSION OF THE CLASSIC
OLD SCHOOL RAP SONG SUMMERTIME. SO...DRUMS PLEASE.
HERE IT IS...A PATTERN SLIGHTLY TRANSFORMED
A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE LATE SPRING NORM
JUST A LITTLE WEATHER TO BREAK THE MONOTONY
OF ALL THE STRONG STORMS THAT HAVE GOTTEN TO BE
A LITTLE BIT OUT OF CONTROL AS THE DAY STARTS OFF COOL
BUT ENDS UP WARM ENOUGH TO GO SWIMMING AT THE POOL
GIVE ME A NICE GENTLE BREEZE
JUST ENOUGH TO RUFFLE THE LEAVES ON THE TREES
AND JUST LIKE THE DAY THAT HAS JUST PAST
IN JOHNSON COUNTY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLAST
BUT ALL IN ALL AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB
IT LOOKS NICE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMERTIME.
IN OTHER WORDS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT INTO MONTANA AND LOSE
SOME ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE WEATHER. A BIT MORE MOISTURE MAY HANG
AROUND FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING BUT ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA RAIN
FREE. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE BRUSHING BY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL BUT
NOT UNUSUALLY SO. AS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONTINUITY INDICATED
MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT MORE
MOISTURE SPREADING IN. THE EUROPEAN LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE AREA BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH 04Z
THIS EVENING...WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYLIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...KCPR WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. STORMS MAY IMPACT MORE TERMINALS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WIND AND
SMALL HAIL MAY BE PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A STRONGER STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KCPR...POTENTIALLY BRINGING VERY STRONG WIND
TO THE TERMINAL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
AND NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. ACTIVITY
WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYLIGHT...THOUGH SOME MAY LINGER OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING ON TUESDAY...WITH HUMIDITY DECREASING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER...STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
ERRATIC WIND AND LARGER HAIL. THE PROMINENT AREAS FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT ARE JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
OVER THE BIGHORN BASIN.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
347 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FAR EASTERN PLAINS...FIRE WEATHER OVER
MTNS/VALLEYS...
CURRENTLY...
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HAS BEEN TRACKING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. STORM HAS TRACKED IN REMOTE
AREAS SO NO REPORTS...BUT ALGORITHMS HAVE BEEN INDICATING 2" HAIL
WITH IT AT TIMES...AND MODEST ROTATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ON AND OFF
WITH THE CELL.
OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS...LLVL MSTR HAS REMAINED IN PLACE WITH
SFC SE WINDS OVER THE REGION. SKIES HAVE CLOUDED UP OVER A GOOD PART
OF THE PLAINS WITH CIGS IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS...THE DRY AIR IS NOTED AS DWPTS ARE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS.
TODAY...
SIMULATIONS SHOW THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN ON THE COLORADO SIDE OF THE
CO/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
ALOFT...CONVG ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR ONE OR TWO STORMS TO
FORM. LATEST HRRR WAS HINTING AT THIS. SPC ALSO HAS FAR E PLAINS IN
SLIGHT RISK. CAPE IS FCST TO BE SIGNIFICANT...3000 J/KG...AND SHEAR
WILL BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE...SO IF ANY STORM GOES UP IT WILL
ROTATE AND IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME BIG HAIL. LCLS
WILL BE HIGH SO TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW.
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR GIVEN THE LOW DWPTS AND GUSTY SW
WINDS. QUITE A FEW AREAS ON THE PLAINS HAVE RECEIVED SOME BENEFICIAL
RAIN SO THE THREAT IS LESS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER IT WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY TODAY AND ANY AREAS WHICH HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
SIGNIF RAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER TODAY THAN THE YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 OVER THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY. EXPECT 70S MTNS WITH
80S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPS AROUND 90F WILL OCCUR IN MOST OF EL PASO
COUNTY.
TONIGHT...
EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SUPERCELL OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY. RH RECOVERY WILL BE VERY POOR
OVER THE MTNS...VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
...HIGH FIRE DANGER...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUT
THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG DRY PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-25. ALREADY HAVE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OUT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE
ONE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WIDESPREAD
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT. IN ADDITION
THE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EAST OF I-25 AS WELL...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE HOWEVER FUEL STATUS AND RECENT HEAVY RAINS PRECLUDE ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. FINE FUELS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AND MAY CURE QUICKLY WITH PERSISTENT DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS LEADING TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ON
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EJECTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MANAGE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE WARMING BACK UP FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN AND HELP REDUCE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN A BIT STRONGER BEFORE WEAKENING ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATING
THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY TO
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
MORNING LOW CIGS WILL AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. KALS WILL BE VFR
NEXT 24H.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ220>230.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>230.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
244 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
849 PM CDT
VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE LAKE
RESULTING IN A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NE IL AND NW IN. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE LONG NNE FETCH OF THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAS
CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR 20+ MPH GUSTS EARLY THIS EVE. THESE LOOK
SLOW TO SUBSIDE PER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SO THESE WILL ADD A LITTLE NIP IN THE AIR...BY JUNE
STANDARDS...ACROSS CHICAGO WITH TEMPS FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
MID-UPPER 50S. THE COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE ALONG
THE STATE LINE WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE. UPPER 40S SHOULD
BE REALIZED THERE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
239 PM CDT
STRATUS LAYER THAT WAS ANCHORED OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN
THIS MORNING HAS ERODED WITH THE WARM AIR HEATING THE SFC. VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IL. IN ADDITION SOME BUILDING CUMULUS
CLOUDS WERE NOTED ALONG A PONTIAC TO KANKAKEE LINE...IN AN AREA OF A
STRONGER THERMAL DIFFERENTIAL. HOWEVER THE LIFT MECHANISM IN THIS
AREA IS MINIMAL...AND SO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE. ALL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWFA WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THUS BY SUNSET OR IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNSET
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END. FURTHER SOUTH STRONGER INSTABILITY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL IL STRETCHING WEST THROUGH NORTHERN
MISSOURI. MID-LVL WAVE CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IL THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWFA. AS A RESULT COOL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER FROM THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE LLVL FLOW WEAKENING. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S SOUTH OF I-80. FURTHER NORTH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TO ARND 50...POSSIBLY THE UPR 40S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF A ROCKFORD...AURORA...WAUKEGAN LINE.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PIVOTS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WED...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THUR. THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST...HOWEVER AN ONSHORE OR NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN IL. THE DIFFERENCE FOR WED
WILL BE THAT THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVERHEAD. WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING...TEMPS SHUD WARM INTO THE MID/UPR
70S OR POSSIBLY THE LOW 80S FROM LASALLE TO IROQUOIS COUNTY.
FOR THUR 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH FLOW BEGINNING TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LLVLS. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP
AND PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY IL...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY PROVIDE A
COOLING TREND IN THE AFTN HOURS. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY WARM FOR
THUR TO ARND 14 TO 16 DEG C...WITH CONTINUED THIN CLOUD COVER. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THE CAVEAT WILL BE
AREAS OF LAKE COUNTY IL POST FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTN.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL LINGER THRU THUR
AFTN/EVE...THUS HAVE HELD ONTO A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING AS WE MIGRATE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THUR...MEDIUM/HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MINIMAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. POSSIBLY THE FIRST STRETCH OF 90 DEG DAYS IS UPON US FOR
SUN/MON/TUE.
GUIDANCE HAS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING OVERHEAD FRI WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN ADDTL LLVL MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR A
WAVE WILL ALSO PUSH OVER THE CWFA FRI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARM FOR FRI INTO THE
UPR 80S...WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE POINTS ACROSS THE CWFA.
ENSEMBLES FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT A 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ADVECT EAST AND BECOME ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE HAS PROGGED
850MB TEMPS TO RISE TO ARND 20-22 DEG C FOR THE WEEKEND THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS WARM STRETCH ARRIVING. THEN SUN/MON/TUE APPEAR TO BE NEAR
CARBON COPIES WITH TEMPS EASILY WARMING TO 90 DEGREES...POSSIBLY THE
LOW 90S. CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AND TIME OF
YEAR WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS TO BE WARMER AS FORECASTED. A COUPLE
LIMITING FACTORS MIGHT BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIES OF WAVES
BRINGING INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH DEW PTS PROGGED TO BE ARND 70 DEG.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK IN THE MID/UPR 80S.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP/CONVECTIVE FORECAST...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD SYNOPTICALLY VEER EAST
THEN SOUTHEAST...BUT A LAKE BREEZE MAY INTERRUPT THIS PROCESS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS BACK TO NORTHEAST FOR A PERIOD.
WITH SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD THEN VEER AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WIND SPEEDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
243 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS AND WAVES HAVE ALREADY
DIMINISHED UNDER THE INFLUDENCE OF THE HIGH...THUS WILL ALLOW
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE WITH THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE. WITH LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE TODAY...WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY...AND FRESHEN UP FRIDAY
AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
100 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
849 PM CDT
VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE LAKE
RESULTING IN A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NE IL AND NW IN. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE LONG NNE FETCH OF THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAS
CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR 20+ MPH GUSTS EARLY THIS EVE. THESE LOOK
SLOW TO SUBSIDE PER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. SO THESE WILL ADD A LITTLE NIP IN THE AIR...BY JUNE
STANDARDS...ACROSS CHICAGO WITH TEMPS FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
MID-UPPER 50S. THE COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE ALONG
THE STATE LINE WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE. UPPER 40S SHOULD
BE REALIZED THERE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
239 PM CDT
STRATUS LAYER THAT WAS ANCHORED OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN
THIS MORNING HAS ERODED WITH THE WARM AIR HEATING THE SFC. VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IL. IN ADDITION SOME BUILDING CUMULUS
CLOUDS WERE NOTED ALONG A PONTIAC TO KANKAKEE LINE...IN AN AREA OF A
STRONGER THERMAL DIFFERENTIAL. HOWEVER THE LIFT MECHANISM IN THIS
AREA IS MINIMAL...AND SO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE. ALL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWFA WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THUS BY SUNSET OR IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNSET
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END. FURTHER SOUTH STRONGER INSTABILITY WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL IL STRETCHING WEST THROUGH NORTHERN
MISSOURI. MID-LVL WAVE CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
IL THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWFA. AS A RESULT COOL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER FROM THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE LLVL FLOW WEAKENING. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 50S SOUTH OF I-80. FURTHER NORTH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TO ARND 50...POSSIBLY THE UPR 40S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF A ROCKFORD...AURORA...WAUKEGAN LINE.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PIVOTS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WED...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THUR. THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
PUSH EAST...HOWEVER AN ONSHORE OR NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO WED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN IL. THE DIFFERENCE FOR WED
WILL BE THAT THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVERHEAD. WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING...TEMPS SHUD WARM INTO THE MID/UPR
70S OR POSSIBLY THE LOW 80S FROM LASALLE TO IROQUOIS COUNTY.
FOR THUR 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH FLOW BEGINNING TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LLVLS. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP
AND PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY IL...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY PROVIDE A
COOLING TREND IN THE AFTN HOURS. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY WARM FOR
THUR TO ARND 14 TO 16 DEG C...WITH CONTINUED THIN CLOUD COVER. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. THE CAVEAT WILL BE
AREAS OF LAKE COUNTY IL POST FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTN.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL LINGER THRU THUR
AFTN/EVE...THUS HAVE HELD ONTO A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING AS WE MIGRATE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THUR...MEDIUM/HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MINIMAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. POSSIBLY THE FIRST STRETCH OF 90 DEG DAYS IS UPON US FOR
SUN/MON/TUE.
GUIDANCE HAS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING OVERHEAD FRI WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN ADDTL LLVL MOISTURE. IT DOES APPEAR A
WAVE WILL ALSO PUSH OVER THE CWFA FRI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARM FOR FRI INTO THE
UPR 80S...WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE POINTS ACROSS THE CWFA.
ENSEMBLES FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT A 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ADVECT EAST AND BECOME ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE HAS PROGGED
850MB TEMPS TO RISE TO ARND 20-22 DEG C FOR THE WEEKEND THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS WARM STRETCH ARRIVING. THEN SUN/MON/TUE APPEAR TO BE NEAR
CARBON COPIES WITH TEMPS EASILY WARMING TO 90 DEGREES...POSSIBLY THE
LOW 90S. CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AND TIME OF
YEAR WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS TO BE WARMER AS FORECASTED. A COUPLE
LIMITING FACTORS MIGHT BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIES OF WAVES
BRINGING INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...ALONG WITH DEW PTS PROGGED TO BE ARND 70 DEG.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK IN THE MID/UPR 80S.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP/CONVECTIVE FORECAST...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD SYNOPTICALLY VEER EAST
THEN SOUTHEAST...BUT A LAKE BREEZE MAY INTERRUPT THIS PROCESS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS BACK TO NORTHEAST FOR A PERIOD.
WITH SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD THEN VEER AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WIND SPEEDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR TSRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
137 PM CDT
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A
FEW DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. WIND MAGNITUDES GENERALLY
LOOK TO BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF 15 TO 25
KT SOUTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR A FEW PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE LAKE. A
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP UP ACROSS THE GREAT
THE NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
IN THE SHORTER TERM...I HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO
THIS EVENING FOR THE ILLINOIS SHORES AND MAINTAINED THE ADVISORY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE INDIANA SHORES. LOCAL BUOY OBS INDICATE
WAVES AROUND 4 FT...AND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO BE IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH...I DO NOT SEE ANY
IMPROVEMENT IN THE WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
346 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST NOW WITH WAA BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO WRN IA. SAT PIX SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLODS FROM DECAYING
BLOWOFF CLOUDS. DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO SWRN IA
WILL BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA THIS MORNING AS WAA ARC LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THE PRECIP TO THE WEST HALF HOWEVER.
COMBINATION OF NAMDNG5 AND HRRR GIVES A REASONABLE PRESENTATION OF
EXPECTED OUTCOME. TEMPS TODAY VERY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. FEEL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS TO GET HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUID AND
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR EXTENDED...WITH MANY PERIODS OF
POPS...AND SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...WITH BREAKS IN
PRECIP CHANCES FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRIVER FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOW WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER
PAC NW...AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY PUSH INLAND ATTM. MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES OVER PLACEMENT OF LOW...BUT SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS LOW PUSHES INLAND. RIDGE REMAINS OVER
IOWA THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH
SPARKING CONVECTION CHANCES.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN SHORT WAVES PROPAGATION
EASTWARD...WITH FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL NE PUSHING INTO
IOWA LATE OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SLOWED POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF MAIN PRECIP
BAND WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING...WITH PRECIP
THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND MAY FORM INTO MCS PUSHING ACROSS
IOWA...WITH NORTHERN IOWA MOST LIKELY LOCATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SD/MN AND HEAVIEST PRECIP MAY
STAY NORTH. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US. AS LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD...TRACKS OF WAVES WILL LIKELY GO NORTH OF CWA...BUT MAY
SEE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND SURFACE
LOW IN WESTERN PLAINS WILL ALSO LIFT NE AT THIS TIME...AND TIMING
AND LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND IS VERY
MUDDLED. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
IOWA WITH PROLONGED PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH
SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP WITH WAA FOR
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH SUMMER LIKE READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK.
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY A BIT LOWER/HIGHER RESPECTIVELY
FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY SO THERE IS THAT POTENTIAL WITH LIGHT E/SE
WIND. HAVE ADDED MENTION IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS WHICH
ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH ENDS UP TO BE EVERYWHERE
OUTSIDE OF KDSM.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
402 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/CHANCES THROUGH PERIOD
WITH HOW HOT DOES IT GET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY/COMPLICATED UPPER FLOW FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED
CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FL0W ALOFT
SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
IS DRAPED UP AGAINST THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL AND HAS SENT UP
MESOSCALE/CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES ACROSS DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. THE NAM/ECMWF LOOKED TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE WORST ON THE MID LEVELS WITH THE
UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS/SREF DOING ABOUT THE SAME. NAM WAS A LITTLE WARM
AT 700 MB WITH THE GFS AND UKMET BETTER. SREF AND GFS WERE DOING
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WENT
THROUGH...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE DO ABOUND. SATELLITE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST
PLUS A WARMER AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MASS/EML MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. NEAR 12Z THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF SOUTHERN JET WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. IT STAYS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH AS SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
VERY UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES BEING A BIG INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ONE OF
THOSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION. ALL
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE RAP REDEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AREA
OVER THE NORTHEAST TO EAST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONSIDERING THAT THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS...
MATCHES UP WITH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS RIGHT NOW AND THAT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA...
WILL RAISE POPS TO A HIGH CHANCE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
THAT CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO EXIT THE AREA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO RELOAD WITH EMPHASIS
SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. WHAT LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER THE FAR WEST
WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER. THE FAR WESTERN MAY BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THESE STORMS SHOULD
PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN THIRD.
DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE WET GROUND AND ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THIS DAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE LOWEST
AND CAP BREAKABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON...EITHER A WEAK COOL FRONT OR
SURFACE TROUGH SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL
THESE FEATURES PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON A WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND WILL BE AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER BY LATE IN THE
NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF EVEN WITH WHAT LOOKS TO
BE A DEEP DRY LAYER AND HIGH BASES. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH HERE TO
INCLUDE A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THINGS TOTALLY
CAPPED OR BE ABLE TO BREAK LOOSE.
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...IN THE 90S. SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE NEAR 100
DEGREES. MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE BOUNDARY.
CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE AIR MASS LIKE THE BOUNDARY BEING
FURTHER NORTH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP A WEAK LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THE DAY BEFORE
EXCEPT MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS DO LOOK CAPPED DESPITE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE NEAR THE SAME PLACE. THE EASTERN
THIRD HAS THE LOWER 700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS
AND BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS COMING ACROSS. LIKED WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
HAD IN THERE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AND ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP.
MODEL DATA SAYS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND SO
WILL THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDED THE MAXES IN THAT DIRECTION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2013
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT 500 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY AS MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FLOW AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALONG WITH STRONGEST POSITIVE VORTICITY VALUES...HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL ENTER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TUESDAY...AND JET STREAM WILL STAY WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 850 MB JET
SPEEDS ARE VERY STRONG DUE TO NOCTURNAL EFFECT FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOWARD WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE
SOME UNSTABLE WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCING. ONCE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THE JET SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
CALM FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARM...WITH VALUES IN THE MID
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THETA E VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT 850 AND AT
THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS. DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A 30 DEGREE DRY LINE
GRADIENT PRESENT IN THE WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH BEST SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXISTS FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MARGINAL AT BEST. THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
TO THE EAST TOWARDS MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WARM AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT INCREASES TEMPERATURES. MORE
STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES THAT MAY REACH
NEAR 100.
&&
.AVIATION....(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RATHER
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVERNIGHT DUE TO VARIOUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MESOSCALE
STORM COMPLEX SHOULD BE EAST OF KGLD BY THE START OF THE TAFS...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE BEHIND THE COMPLEX INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY NEAR THE SITE. DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AND THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS
AROUND KGLD TONIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP. MOST MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING FOG FORMING ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY IS INDICATING
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH WILL INCLUDE A MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTION FOR KGLD OVERNIGHT.
MODELS ARE PLACING LIFT OVER KMCK DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE
LIFT MOVING EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT INCLUDE A
VICINITY TS IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE SITE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
337 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
TOUGH FORECAST WAS MADE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT DUE TO THE
UNAVAILABILITY OF HRRR/00 UTC ECMWF AND RUC AFTER 0600 UTC DUE TO
PROBLEMS UPSTREAM. NONE OF THE REMAINDER OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
HAD MUCH OF A HANDLE ON ONGOING CONVECTION. NAM WAS PARTICULARLY
SUSPECT...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIALIZATION OF 850MB MOISTURE. BASED
ON 0000 UTC RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION AND OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS...
SEE LITTLE REASON WHY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL NOT CONTINUE TO
ROLL EAST DURING THE DAY AIDED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION...INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE. EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES/WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THINKING THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO EASTERN HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LULL IN
THE WESTERN HALF AROUND SUNSET. SEE NO REASON WHY STORMS WILL NOT
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN TONIGHT AND ROLL EAST.
THU REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WILL BE OR LOW LONG IT WILL LINGER. LARGE POTENTIAL FOR ERROR ON
ALL FACETS OF THIS FORECAST. HAVE LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE GFS
WHICH WAS THE LEAST WRONG GUIDANCE OUT OF THE BOX.
HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH DRY/WARMER/WINDIER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
-HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS.
SOME HINT ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THAT FRONT MAY SAG
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUN/SUN
NIGHT. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THESE CHANCES BUT IN ABSENCE OF
0000 UTC ECMWF WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. HAVE HEDGED
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ABOVE INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON LAST
WARM PERIOD AND BEST GUIDANCE AT THESE TIME RANGES. TEMPERATURES IN
TRIPLE DIGITS APPEAR PROBABLE IN CENTRAL KS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
TSRA CLUSTER CONTINUING TO MOVE SE~20KTS OVER SC KS SHOULD PASS
PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-135 THRU ~07Z. NO CIG & VSBY RESTRICTIONS
HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE (+)TSRA & HAVE THEREFORE KEPT KICT IN
VFR STATUS BUT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA HAVE BEEN VARIABLE IN
BOTH SPEEDS & DIRECTIONS SO HAVE ALREADY UPDATED KICT TO ADDRESS THIS
ISSUE. INSOLATION COMBINES WITH DAMP GROUNDS TO ENABLE CUMULUS TO
REDEVELOP OVER ALL 5 TERMINALS ~18Z. PERSISTENT LWR-DECK TROF AXIS
THAT IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH CO/KS BORDER SHOULD ENABLE WINDS TO
BECOME DUE SLY & INCREASE TO ~20KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS ~30KTS OVER
MOST AREAS ~18Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 84 70 90 73 / 40 40 30 10
HUTCHINSON 87 69 91 72 / 40 50 20 10
NEWTON 85 68 89 72 / 40 40 30 10
ELDORADO 83 69 88 73 / 40 40 40 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 84 70 89 73 / 40 40 30 10
RUSSELL 89 68 94 71 / 50 50 10 10
GREAT BEND 89 68 93 72 / 50 50 10 10
SALINA 88 70 90 75 / 40 50 30 10
MCPHERSON 87 69 90 72 / 40 50 30 10
COFFEYVILLE 90 69 86 73 / 40 30 30 10
CHANUTE 88 68 84 72 / 40 30 30 10
IOLA 88 68 83 71 / 40 40 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 89 69 84 72 / 40 30 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
455 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND A RIDGE
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM JAMES BAY TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION (PWAT AROUND 0.50 OR ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL)...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ONLY SUPPORTED A PATCH OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SE
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT RETURN SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A BIT MORE MIXING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR WEST AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 INLAND TO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
WEDNESDAY...AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...SRLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB
WILL SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS READINGS IN THE 60S. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E
AXIS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA WITH WEAK SHRTWVS IN NW FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD AS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL
CONSENSUS FOR THE TIMING OF THE POPS AS IT MOVES IN.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY AND
WILL COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRENGTH OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL HEATING...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ON THE BOUNDARY...AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KTS SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME TILTING OF THE UPDRAFTS. HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AS NCAPE VALUES AROUND .1
SHOULD KEEP ANY HAIL FROM GROWING TOO LARGE. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST/CENTRAL...CLOSEST
TO LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE AND THEN FOLLOW THE STORM MOTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. FROM THIS LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL LOOKS TO
SETUP FROM THE STALLED TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN LOCATED AROUND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AT THIS
LARGE SCALE PATTERN...IT IS VERY CONDUCIVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. BUT TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVES AND POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL
GRADUALLY GROW FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PULLS PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. USING ML CAPE VALUES TO REMOVE SOME OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST BIASES IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE
ARE STILL SOME DECENT VALUES FOR U.P. STANDARDS. FRIDAY THEY LOOK TO
PEAK IN THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE WEST AND THEN GROW TO
1500-2500 J/KG FOR SAT/SUN DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT...WHILE
THE GEM/ECMWF TRY TO KEEP THE FRONT A TOUCH SOUTH OF THE AREA. IT
WILL PROBABLY BE A VARIETY OF THUNDERSTORM TYPES DURING THAT PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING EAST /VIA FORWARD PROP CORFIDI VECTORS/
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH THE
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND LIMITED INHIBITION...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERNS WOULD BE IF THE RIDGE AND
WARM FRONT BUILD FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SLIDE MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN OR THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF IT
BECOMING HUNG UP SOUTH OF THE AREA /ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTION HOLDS
THEM SOUTH/. WITH THE GROWING CONFIDENCE...WILL ADD A MENTION OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND IN BOTH THE HWO AND EHWO. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...AS
PWAT VALUES RISE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS AREA.
IT WILL BE PRETTY HUMID FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND /DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S/ AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES
NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. IF THE GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...WOULD
HAVE TO BUMP TEMPS UP WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY REALLY GROWS HEADING INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...AS A LOT
DEPENDS ON THE WEEKEND WEATHER. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE MODELS IS
THAT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE AREA WILL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WAVES ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN PLACE FOR THAT PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY BRING AN END TO THE WARM/HUMID
WEATHER.
FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ON LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND IT TO AREAS OR EVEN DENSE FOG AS IT
NEARS. ALSO...ADDED A MENTION OF FOG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE
AREAS STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS START TO AFFECT THAT AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY
LOW WAVES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS/HAIL/LIGHTNING WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THAT
DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD...AS A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SWINGS INTO QUEBEC. A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS
ONTARIO...AND AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEEPEN OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
CIRRUS SHIELD NOTED ON IR SATELLITE ENTERING FAR WESTERN MN.
SHIELD IS JUST AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ABOVE EASTERN
MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE EJECTED OUT OF 50H TROF OVER PACIFIC
NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO WESTERN NODAK AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTACHED TO SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL BE CATALYST FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS MORNING OVER FAR WESTERN CWA. USED GFS40 THETA E
ADVECTION AND HRRR GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF DAYTIME
CONVECTION OVER FA. COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SW MN
TO...AS JOULES INCREASE INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 RANGE. MODERATE
250MB DIVERGENCE COUPLETS ALSO NOTED OVER THESE AREAS ALONG WITH
LI`S PLUNGING INTO THE NEGATIVE 4 TO NEGATIVE 8 CATEGORY. ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE THICKER CLOUD DECK THEN CURRENT CIRRUS
SHIELD PROGGED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
PRESENCE AND PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEEPER INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MN TONIGHT SHOULD PORTEND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...WITH QPF VALUES ALSO RISING NOTICEABLY.
COULD BE A QUICK QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF INCH OF MOISTURE
GENERATE FROM CONTINUE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. 850MB
LAPSE RATES AND LI`S WILL ALSO RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO FORM BY LATE TONIGHT OVER MUCH
OF MN FA ...WITH 25 TO 30KT MAGNITUDES COMMON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA TO OWATONNA. COULD BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG TO
NEAR SEVERE T-STORMS OVER WESTERN HALF OF FA DURING THE
EVENING...SWITCHING TO FAR EAST CENTRAL MN/WEST CENTRAL WI AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
WARM AND MOISTURE-RICH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE END OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING PERIODS OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN/WI THRU TDA WILL SHIFT TO THE E THRU THU
WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING NOT ONLY OVER TOP THE RIDGE BUT ALSO
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU INTO FRI WILL WORK WITH AN
INCOMING SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL-NRN
PLAINS. SOLID SW FLOW WILL BRING NOT ONLY WARMER AIR /WHICH WILL
RAISE H5 HEIGHTS TO ENHANCE CAPPING BUT ALSO STRONGER JETTING/ BUT
ALSO MOISTURE-RICH AIR /HELPING RAISE PWATS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES AND
ENHANCE INSTABILITY/...AND THE SFC FRONTAL WAVES COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC INVOF THE APCHG CDFNT
FOR THE WRN HALF OF MN. ONCE THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LOST OVER
WRN MN...STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL JETTING WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITHIN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRON /INCLUDING DEWPOINTS NEAR-
OVER 70 DEGREES/ WILL PROMOTE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. THE REGIME THEN TRANSITIONS
TO ONE OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
OPENS UP AND BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE PROLIFIC SWLY FLOW WHILE THE
NW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OPENS TO MORE OF A TROUGH THAN CUTOFF LOW.
LONG PLUME OF SLY SFC FLOW WILL AID IN BRINGING MOISTURE WELL N
INTO THE UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION. MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH MUCH OF IT CONVECTIVE...TRYING TO PINPOINT
WHERE SUCH RAINFALL EVENTS MAY OCCUR IS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC.
STILL...HAVE KEPT HIGH-END CHC POPS GOING IN THE FCST. POPS
DIMINISH FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DEVELOPS...KEEPING ANY ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEMS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THAT SAID...SEVERAL MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT HAS DIMINISHED SUCH THAT IT HAS BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE TAFS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MN...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED SO WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN ANY
TAFS. IF IT DOES HIT A TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE
LIKELY. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BACKING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING
THE EVENING.
KMSP...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE WX IMPACT EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF WED...BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LATE DAY
STORM. WIND WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY AND COULD GUST TO NEARLY 20 KT
WEDNESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC OF MVFR. TSRA LIKELY. SSE WINDS 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC OF MVFR TSRA. S WINDS 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC OF MVFR TSRA. S WINDS 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ACROSS NE NM EXITED THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. APPEARS
THAT A BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NWWD THRU KSAF...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW THAT A CANYON WIND WILL DEVELOP IN THE ABQ AREA TONIGHT DUE TO
THE LACK OF CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HAVE REMOVED THE EAST WIND IN THE ABQ TAF FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS
WATCHING...AS A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOW CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 09Z...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40KTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION
REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INSERTED A VCTS MENTION ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT ANY TAF SITE WILL BE IMPACTED...THOUGH TCC AND ROW HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...926 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013...
ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED WITH
STORMS JUST IN UNION COUNTY AT THIS TIME. JURY STILL OUT ON
WHETHER WE WILL SEE MUCH OF AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV LATER
TONIGHT...SETUP DIFFERENT THAN LAST NIGHT. RUC13 HAS BEEN BACKING
OFF ON A STRONG GRADIENT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EVEN TOWARDS
SUNRISE. WILL KEEP MONITORING. ZFP ALREADY OUT.
.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT...
STORM COVERAGE IS MUCH MORE LIMITED TODAY AS POTENT DRY AIR ALOFT
MOVES OVER THE REGION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DID MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE DIVIDE BUT IT IS SHALLOW
AND WILL CONTINUE MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NE PLAINS. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A POTENTIAL SEVERE STORM WEST OF RATON...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. RAISED POPS FOR THE NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOWERED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN UGLY FIRE DANGER DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEP MIXING TAPPING VERY DRY AIR LEADING TO HOT...BREEZY/WINDY...
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. 700MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR +18C WHICH IS
NOT AS WARM AS WHAT WE EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK HOWEVER IT IS STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TOSSED IN SOME SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN BLOWING DUST
INTO THE GRIDS FOR A FEW CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCALES. ANY STORMS
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVEN THERE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
AND GUSTY ACTIVITY. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY EXCEPT
MORE MOISTURE WILL TRICKLE NORTH ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.
RAISED POPS JUST A TAD FARTHER NORTH AS THE 12Z NAM IS BULLISH ON
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY UP TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
HOT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL STAY STRONG SO BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
QUITE A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH MEDIUM/EXTENDED
RANGE GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
PWAT SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF 1-2 STDEV BELOW CLIMO VALUES FROM THE
NORTHERN BAJA REGION ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WITH NEAR CLIMO
VALUES FOR NM. THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THRU THIS PERIOD
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SHUTS OFF ANY STREAM OF MOISTURE SLIDING
INTO OUR AREA THRU ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH A 598DM RIDGE BUILDING
RIGHT OVER NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL SCORCHING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. THE GFS HOWEVER DOES
TAKE A PIECE OF THE CURRENT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND LIFTS IT NORTH WITH THE RIDGE FARTHER EAST. FOR NOW
WILL SIDE WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION AND KEEP POPS VERY LOW IN THE
EXTENDED.
GUYER
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD NEXT FEW DAYS...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED A LITTLE STRONGER FLOW FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY SO RAISED SPEEDS SLIGHTLY BUT PRETTY
SIMILAR TO ORIGINAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER RIDGES AND AREAS NEAR THE AZ/CO
STATE LINES AS WELL AS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE
FAVORED FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SO BUMPED UP
WIND SPEEDS ACCORDINGLY. GETTING MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE 12Z NAM/S
DEPICTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING UP FROM MEXICO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHER MODELS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. COULD BE A WILD AND
WOOLLY DAY WITH A MIX OF STANDARD RED FLAG CONDITIONS PLUS DRY
MICROBURST WINDS DUE TO DRIER STORMS. WILL MONITOR THAT TREND
ACCORDINGLY. WILL UPGRADE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EXCLUDING AREAS NEAR TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE DUE TO HIGHER RH
THERE WEDNESDAY. WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. GOING TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE FOR BOTH
DAYS.
AS FAR AS REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT SOME DRIER STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS THE DRY AIR RAPIDLY PUSHES FROM WEST TO
EAST. THESE STORMS WILL TEND TO BE FAST MOVING. THE WETTER STORMS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE
NORTHEAST.
UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL FILTER
FURTHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL TRY TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY POOR NEAR TO THE AZ
STATE LINE...POOR BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND THEN MODERATE TO GOOD FURTHER EAST. EVEN EXCELLENT NEAR
THE TEXAS STATE LINE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A HIGHER END CRITICAL DAY DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR
AND COMBO WIND/LOW RH/ABUNDANT TURBULENT MIXING AND QUITE A BIT
OF SUNSHINE. SUN ANGLES ARE GETTING TO BE QUITE STEEP AND THE MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG AS IT PUSHES
FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE STATE. SUPER HAINES VALUES ARE PROJECTED
FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL BE
HERKY JERKY OR PULSY DUE TO THE TURBULENT MIXING AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SOME PRETTY STOUT SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS. SEVERAL HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS WESTWARD TO ARIZONA. THE HEART OF THE SINGLE DIGIT
AREA IN TERMS OF 10 TO 15 HOURS INCLUDES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STORM POTENTIAL...MAINLY OF THE DRIER VARIETY WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CANT RULE OUT A ROGUE DRY
STORM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES BEFORE THE DRY AIR
REALLY PUSHES IN.
THE RIDGE WILL NUDGE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION PROCEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH POOR TO VERY POOR
RECOVERIES WESTERN TWO THIRDS OR SO. MUCH BETTER RECOVERIES WITH
RESIDUAL HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE TEXAS
STATE LINE. THE HIGHER RIDGES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE STEADY WIND
FLOWS AS THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS SOME. THIS WILL LEAD INTO
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY CRITICAL DAY ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
REMAIN PRETTY STRONG AND FAVOR THE SAME AREAS AS MENTIONED DURING
THE OPENING PARAGRAPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES COULD RISE SOME AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY/S
READINGS. NAM MODEL A LITTLE JUMPY WITH ITS DEPICTION OF A MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSH FROM MEXICO. THE 12Z MODEL WAS MORE MOIST WHILE THE
18Z IS COMING IN DRIER. IF STORMS DO FORM THEY WOULD BE DRIER AND
FASTER MOVING LEADING TO AN ADDITIONAL IGNITION THREAT. EITHER
WAY...GETTING ENOUGH CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY
AND ABOVE NORMAL MIXING TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. SEEING A
SUPER HAINES SIGNATURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO BUT LESS
AREA THAN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT TOWARDS AN UPPER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DECIDED TO UP
WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND SEEING SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS BUT DOESNT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG OF A SIGNAL AS THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. UPPER FLOW IS DEPICTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS THE PACIFIC
TROUGH SHEARS OUT. EXPECTING SOME SORT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SEEPAGE
FROM MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MORE OF A MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WETTER
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THERE WHILE THE DRIER VARIETY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WEST. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
MODERATE ALTHOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE MOISTURE PUSH.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>109.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>103-105>107-109.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
840 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES OVER CENTRAL NC AT
MID-AFTERNOON THANKS TO PEAKS OF SUN HEATING UP AN AIR MASS WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPSTAIRS...A VORT MAXIMUM
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO ROTATE EASTWARD WITH
ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE AIDING TO ENHANCE THE 925-850MB
FLOW WHICH IS ADVECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE COLUMN. LATEST
SATELLITE TOTAL BLEND PRECIP WATER PRODUCT DEPICTS VALUES BETWEEN
1.8-2 INCHES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MEAGER...ENOUGH JUICE EXISTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION. CURRENT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-40KT RANGE
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONVECTION FORMING INTO A
LINE AS IT MARCHES EAST-SE. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORM WITH WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. STILL
BELIEVE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
RAINFALL RATES 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN A FEW OF THE STORMS.
FORTUNATELY STEERING WINDS CLOSE TO 25KTS SO STORMS WITH THIS
MAGNITUDE OF RAIN SHOULD NOT SETTLE OVER ONE SPOT VERY LONG. BULK OF
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE 11Z HRRR SUGGEST THE
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN
21Z-00Z...AND INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN 23Z-02Z.
PLAN TO MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD THESE HIGHER POPS SEWD WITH TIME. WILL
INTRODUCE DECREASING POPS BY EARLY EVENING IN THE NW PIEDMONT...THEN
TREND POPS LOWER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BETWEEN 02Z-06Z.
OVERNIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SEWD AND SHOULD LIE WSW-ENE
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN-SE COUNTIES AT DAYBREAK. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. STILL MUGGY OVERNIGHT THOUGH THE FAR N-NW SECTIONS MAY
START TO FEEL A LITTLE LESS HUMID BY DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS MID 60S TO
NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
STRONGER S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE SHEAR AXIS APPROACHES OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVECT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR INTO
CENTRAL NC. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND DUE TO RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NOT AS
ROBUST. EXPECT TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP...ONE OVER THE FAR SOUTH IN
VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY SFC FRONT...AND THE OTHER OVER THE
FAR NORTH AHEAD OF THE SWD ADVANCING MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. PLAN TO
CAP POPS NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT (NEAR SC BORDER) WITH A 1-IN-3
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES IN THE EARLY
EVENING...EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER MAY STILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE SHEAR AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTH. THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SE OVERNIGHT
AND EXIT THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THU. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE
WILL AID TO DISSIPATE THE CLOUD COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT A FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMP FIELD WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE
AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 NORTH TO LOWER
80S SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH A SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGHER THURSDAY RELATIVE TO
FRIDAY...BETWEEN AN INCH AND 1.5 INCHES ON THE FORMER COMPARED TO A
DECREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO AT OR BELOW AN INCH FRIDAY. BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND PARTICULARLY THE LATTER...FORECAST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND 850MB THURSDAY FOR AREAS OF CU TO FORM...MORE
LIKELY TOWARD THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE 850MB MOISTURE IS
HIGHEST. K INDICES FALL FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...WITH K INDICES WELL INTO NEGATIVE
VALUES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AMPLE
OVERALL CIN AND GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT WITH CONVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD
PRECLUDE THAT. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORNING GUSTS WITH INITIAL
MIXING THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS KTS IN THE MODESTLY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF OF THE COAST AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL 925MB
WINDS ARE MAINLY AROUND 10KT. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...CLOSE TO OR ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 60 TO THE MID
60S...MINS POSSIBLY TEMPERED A LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY
SLIGHTLY GREATER UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST BY BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
AROUND THE RIDGE...THERE COULD BE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR TWO
THAT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE...OR HAS SOME SUCCESS MOVING...INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MOISTURE OF THE MEAN AIR MASS...AND MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE...INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 70F BY MONDAY...CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT
SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE ESPECIALLY AT THE
SURFACE...AND COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
HAVE A GOOD CONSENSUS OF AT LEAST BEING WEAKLY CAPPED ALOFT. WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A WEAKNESS IN
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TRANSLATING INTO COOLING ALOFT...AT LEAST SOME
QPF BY MUCH OF THE CURRENT LONG-TERM GUIDANCE...AND MEX MOS POPS
NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORCING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS...SEA
BREEZE...AND/OR WEAK MID-LEVEL PVA AT TIMES...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR
MASS. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES GRADUALLY RISE...WHICH...ALONG WITH MOS
GUIDANCE...WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS RISING TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. IF THE SURFACE DEW POINT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FORECAST
PRIMARILY DUE TO SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING...MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES COULD RISE TO AROUND 100 BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT MADE ITS WAY THROUGH KRDU...AND KRWI
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KFAY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WHILE THE THUNDER WILL LINGER NEAR KRWI...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE LINE REACHES KFAY THAT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISBYS. THE HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBYS...BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED. THE EFFECTIVE FRONT...AS NOTED BY A VEERING OF THE
WINDS FROM SW TO NNW...HAS CROSSED THE TRIAD TERMINALS AS OF 8 PM
AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE KRDU/KRWI TERMINALS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10
PM...AND THE KFAY VICINITY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY DROP IN DEWPOINTS...LINGERS A FEW HOURS
BEHIND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
SHOWERS BUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. -KC
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH A STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BASES 3000-4000FT.
LOOKING AHEAD: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND LINGER OVER CENTRAL
NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS LEADING TO VFR PARAMETERS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO
FOG...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. -WSS
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...KC/WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE DIMINISHED. AN
ISOLATED STORM IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT IT APPEARS
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE DECREASING. MADE SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE
UPDATE...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LATEST BOWMAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE INTO SOUTHWEST HARDING COUNTY IN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE H85-H30 MEAN WIND WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE
PRECIPITATION AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE
THE LATEST RAP INITIALLY HAS THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION TOO FAR NORTH...AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS WITH A
HEAVIER BLEND OF THE NAM OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AS A H85-H7 SATURATED POTENTIAL TEMP RIDGE AXIS RESIDES
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...ALONG WITH H85-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN THEREAFTER...AND HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS TO LESS THAN
MEASURABLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
CLOUD DEBRIS/ACCAS (ALTOCUMULUS CASTELLANUS) SHOULD BE VISIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INSTABILITY SHIFTS
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS ARE ALSO INCREASING IN
NORTHEAST MONTANA AS A CIRRUS CANOPY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. EXPECTATIONS ARE ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES OVERNIGHT AND
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW SCT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM ROSEGLEN TO NEAR DICKINSON...WITH A SCT
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WITH A H7-H5 RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED FROM WILLISTON TO
BISMARCK AND INTO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...EXPECT A DRY
NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS.
ATTENTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TURNS TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING...WITH A LARGE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CANOPY EXPANDING OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST RAP ADVECTS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARD 06Z. THE 18Z GFS IS MORE ROBUST IN
GENERATING A LARGER SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND JUST
GRAZING OUR SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. HOWEVER OTHER MODELS DELAY THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL AWAIT THE 00Z DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO MONITOR THE CONVECTION
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ONLY UPDATES
THIS EVENING WAS TO HOURLY OBS AND TO INCREASE SKY GRID TRENDS IN
THE SOUTHWEST AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE CLOUD DEBRIS MAY MAKE IT
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN
MONTANA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS IN WYOMING/MONTANA/SOUTH DAKOTA
AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY ONE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A SLOWING EVOLVING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
THAT MAY CAP THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER BELIEVE THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES JUSTIFY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD APPROACH BUT REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY 20 TO 35 MPH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...SOME
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE NAM FASTEST IN BRINGING THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES EASTWARD. HAVE FAVORED THE GFS/EC SOLUTIONS FOR
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
MCS TO CLIP NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...FUELED BY A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE MAIN
DECISION-MAKING ELEMENT WAS WHEN/WHERE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP
WOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION...BECAUSE OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CAPE AND
SHEARING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL CAP OF 10-14C IS
SITUATED OVER WYOMING/EASTERN MONTANA AND NUDGING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE CAP BUILDS DURING THE EVENING
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS IN FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE EVENING WEDNESDAY OR EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE ORIENTED
NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
MORNING...AND SHIFTING TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME FOR WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A SURFACE LOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW IS
FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAINTAINING ITS
PRESENCE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE IN THE
UPPER FLOW. THE MODELS BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WOULD ALLOW SOME UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH
A CONTINUED MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM CKB TO HTS. AT THIS
POINT...ALL SHRA HAS REMAINED JUST OFF TO THE NE OF CRW AND ONLY
EXPECTED TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT EKN AND CKB. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS...BUT WILL ONLY INCREASE
DENSITY SHOULD A SHOWER MAKE A DIRECT IMPACT ON A TERMINAL ONCE
THE SHOWER AND CLOUDS SCATTER. BY NEAR DAWN...EXPECT ALL SITES TO
BE AT LEAST IFR IN REDUCED VIS...IF NOT LOWER.
ALL OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF WED
MORNING DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT MIXES INTO MORNING CU. BY
MID-MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MVFR VIS MAY
REDEVELOP NEAR END OF PERIOD.
NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME LIGHT N TO NE ON WED. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT N.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: STRATUS MAY MATERIALIZE MORE THAN FCST WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT WED MORNING COULD ALSO VARY FROM FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/19/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
347 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A WEAK MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SRN KS AND
NWRN OK. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/THETA E AXIS POSITIONED ALONG/NEAR THE WRN KS/OK
BORDER.
OVERALL...MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT GO THIS MORNING IN
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS. CURRENT THOUGHTS LEAN
TOWARD THE MCS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD. CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL OK...WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE
IS LESS FAVORABLE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY.
THERE IS DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...30-40KTS SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
OK...BUT MUCAPES REMAIN LOW FOR MCS SUPPORT...700 TO 1000 J/KG.
OVERALL...THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WILL POSE A FAIRLY DECENT
CHALLENGE FORECASTWISE. THE RECENT 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR REVISES ITS
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE MAIN
LINE AND SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MIGHT BE A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO...AS NEW CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SINCE 230 AM...ACROSS SERN CO AND THE OK PANHANDLE. FOR THE
MOMENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NWRN OK THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHALLOW 500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT/TILT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND THE PAC NW TROUGH DIGGING EASTWARD...A STOUT SFC
TROUGH/FRONT WILL EXTEND THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WEAK SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN
OK...PRIMARILY WELL NORTH OF THE I-40 AND I-44 CORRIDORS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY AFTER THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE
HOLD...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S...APPROACHING THE 100S ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX.
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NWRN OK SUNDAY AS
THE WRN TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND A SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION...BUT AT THE MOMENT...EXPECT THE GOOD MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 69 89 71 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 90 70 96 72 / 20 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 72 95 73 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 87 69 96 73 / 50 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 85 69 88 72 / 10 30 30 10
DURANT OK 88 71 91 72 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
303 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. BEFORE WE GET INTO SOMETHING
OF A DRY PERIOD...THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. THIS MORNING THERE IS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS COMPLEX MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS IT DECAYS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY BUT NOT FEELING OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS DECISION. COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CREATED BY THIS COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DO
HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 90 71 90 74 / 10 10 20 10
FSM 90 68 92 71 / 10 10 10 0
MLC 89 70 91 73 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 88 69 88 72 / 10 20 30 10
FYV 86 64 87 68 / 10 10 10 0
BYV 87 65 88 68 / 10 10 10 10
MKO 88 69 89 72 / 10 10 20 10
MIO 89 68 88 71 / 10 20 30 10
F10 88 70 90 73 / 10 10 10 10
HHW 89 70 92 72 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
155 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
WITHOUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS. MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES THRU LATE WEEK MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...DUE TO LARGELY BOUNDARY-PARALLEL SHEAR...CELLS THAT
INITIALLY FORMED AROUND SUNSET HAVE TRAINED ROUGHLY ALONG A
GREENVILLE TO CHESTER LINE IN CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE FRONT.
ACTIVITY NOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY WANES...BUT SOME
PRECIP LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT LEAST. HOWEVER
WITH OUTFLOW PUSHING OUT ACRS GREENVILLE AND SPARTANBURG COUNTIES
CAN/T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FIRING FROM THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THOSE COUNTIES SOUTH. NORTH OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG
THE UPSTREAM BOUNDARY OVER KY WOULD TAKE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TO
REACH THE TN/NC BORDER...BUT THEY ARE ALREADY STRUGGLING IN THE MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT THEY ARE ENTERING...SO DO NOT SEE A NEED TO
REFLECT THESE STORMS IN POPS TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ON TRACK SO
FAR THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN GOING LOWS.
730 PM UPDATE...PRECIP ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED TO THE PIEDMONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE CWFA WITH FRONT PUSHING INTO THAT AREA.
ACTIVITY GENERALLY WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING ANYWAY. RAP AS
WELL AS LOCAL WRF MODEL DO NOT SHOW ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...AND WINDS ARE DRY AND DOWNSLOPING ANYWAY. STILL DO THINK
SOME OF THE REMAINING CU IN EAST TN AND THE MTNS OF WNC WILL REMAIN
AS PATCHY STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SPREADING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWFA TOO. KEPT PCLDY-MCLDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...A BIT OF A TRICKY FCST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE
MODELS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF S/W ENERGY ACROSS
THE CWFA IS NOT VERY HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE LATEST RADAR
SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
INTO THE WRN ZONES. VSBY SAY SHOW GOOD CLEARING AND HEATING TAKING
PLACE...BUT IN A DEEPLY MOIST ATMOS SBCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH
ONLY MOD LEVELS. THIS IS A LITTLE EVIDENT IN THE LOW TOP CONV SEEN
TO THE WEST. IN ANY REGARD...WILL ANTICIPATE TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CROSS
S/W ENERGY...SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE MLVLS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE MTNS AROUND 00Z AND INTO THE UPSTATE NEAR 05Z. THIS WILL
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH WITH A LOWER THETA/E AIRMASS
MIXING IN. SOME PATCHY DENSE FG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE
MTN VALLEYS AS THE PGRAD IS NOT REAL TIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BROADENS THROUGH 12Z.
A CP HIGH WILL WORK SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY TOMORROW AND PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL EXPECT THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS...WHERE AN E/LY UPSLOPE FLOW BRINGS
IN ATL MOISTURE. POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO SLIGHT/CHANCE ACROSS THE
MTNS AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE...WITH MAINLY -SHRA AND PERHAPS A MODERATE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE FHILLS AND MTNS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE NE/LY SFC FLOW AND
AIRMASS MIXING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SET UP CAMP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WHICH WILL REMAIN RIDGED SWD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH FRI. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE ALMOST INDETERMINATE IN
THE DEEP SOUTH WITH VERY WEAK FLOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN A
TROUGH WELL TO THE NE AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HENCE...NO SIGNIFCANT UPPER FORCING IS ANTICIPATED. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRYING ESSENTAILLY ABOVE 10KFT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS FORECAST TO DECREASE ON FRI.
HENCE...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY MAINLY BY THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW AND ANY MECHANICAL LIFT IT MUSTERS...PLUS DIURNAL HEATING.
THEREFORE...MAINLY DIURNAL/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS A DOWN TICK IN COVERAGE ON FRI
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DRYER AIR. WITH THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...SOME
NOCTURNAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WED/THU NIGHTS. USED AN ALLBLEND APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES
WHICH PRODUCED MAX TEMPS ON THU AND FRI ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW
AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN
SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE EAST COAST...SETTING UP A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FOR THE REGION.
THIS WILL DRIVE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THE PERIOD...WITH
GREATER CHANCE POPS FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID IN LOW STATUS
PERSISTENCE...AND ALSO PROMPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOG
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING SOMEWHAT EASTERLY
BY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE MORNING TO
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...LOOK FOR SOME BKN TO SCT LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. KEPT ANY MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE TAF
AS ANY INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED OFF.
ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT AT ALL
SC SITES...SOME BRIEF LOWERING TO HIGH END MVFR LEVELS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS REMAINS SCATTERED ACROSS A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. KEPT MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT ALL SITES THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING DUE TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALMING
NORTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT
ALL SC SITES BEYOND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS FOR THE NC SITES...WENT
WITH PROB30 AT KAVL AND KHKY AS SHORT TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME UPDRAFTS BEING ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP WITH
THE AID OF MECHANICAL FORCING. BEYOND THAT...SOME LOW/MID LEVEL VFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY AT THE NC SITES...WHILE FULL VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST AT THE SC SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP WED NIGHT LEADING TO LOW
STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THU MORNING WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 82% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 83% HIGH 99% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 74% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 75% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 74% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION NEAR PAH MOVING SOUTHWARD AND NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARDS
SUNRISE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 13-14Z WITH SCT CUMULUS AND LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KY AT THIS TIME. THE ACTIVITY IS STILL SEVERAL
COUNTIES NORTH OF THE TN/KY LINE BUT IS MOVING SOUTH. LATEST LAPS
DATA SHOWING THAT CAPES DROP FROM 1400 J/KG VCNTY OF STORMS
NOW...TO NEAR 600 J/KG ALONG THE TN/KY LINE. 850 MB FLOW IS
GENERALLY NORTHERLY WHICH DOES NOT USUALLY CONDONE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS LOOKING
MINIMAL. HRRR OF LITTLE SUPPORT AND ONLY GOES OUT TO 03Z FOR NOW.
WILL OPT TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FCST AND KEEP THE 20 POPS
GOING. WILL REMOVE THOSE POPS IF AND WHEN THE CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH COMPLETELY DIES OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN
IN WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
WEAKEN BUT AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO COULD FLIRT WITH CROSSING THE
TN/KY BORDER LATE TONIGHT. OTW...SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD
12Z. ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR YOUR
WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NOW WELL SOUTH OF MID
STATE WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AT
MID-AFTERNOON. RATHER SHARP SHORT WAVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WORK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACROSS INDIANA INTO OHIO.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY. SURFACE BOUNDARY PROGGED TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
PRECEDING BY CONVECTION. FRONT WILL BE UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS BY
THE TIME IT GETS THIS FAR SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING I DONT FEEL CONFORTABLE NOT HAVING AT LEAST A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. THERE
STILL COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER ON THE UPPER CUMBERLAND FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO...AM EXPECTING LATE NIGHT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST
THAT COULD DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDER ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TURN OUT QUITE SUMMER-LIKE...
RIGHT ON CUE WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE WHICH OCCURS FRIDAY JUNE
21ST AT 12:04 AM CDT. PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MID STATE REMAINING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS MEANS A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE PRETTY MUCH EACH DAY.
BOYD
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
318 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY MAJOR FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY.
LIGHT WIND AND DAMP GROUND ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE IN
EAST TEXAS BUT A FEW NORTH TEXAS LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 1/2
MILE VISIBILITY. BY 11 AM...ANY FOG THAT DID DEVELOP WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED.
A COMPLEX OF STORMS...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COMPLEX
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE
SOLUTION OF ALL MODELS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS SO WILL FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF
THE WEST TEXAS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND MID MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S AND SOME LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS DUE TO THE WEAK SHEARED AND
WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
FROM A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL NEVER BECOME
EXTREMELY STRONG AND AS A RESULT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 74 95 75 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
WACO, TX 94 72 94 73 95 / 10 10 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 91 70 92 71 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 94 71 95 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 91 69 92 70 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 94 75 94 76 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 92 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 72 93 73 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 71 93 72 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 70 94 70 96 / 20 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
91/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
104 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT
DRIER WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WAS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 02Z/10PM.
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
ENOUGH CLEARING AND HIGH ENOUGH DEW POINTS TO ADD MORE FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. LATEST WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT AND IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE ALIGNED THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND KEPT A LOW
CHANCE IN THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT.
THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS EAST COAST WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.
IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
KEPT THE LIGHT POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH. PLAYED HIGHS WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO COOLER MOS VALUES FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT INCREASES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A BROAD EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT...AND A DRY MID LEVEL EASTERLY
WIND...LOOKING AT MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP
THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...NOT TOO HOT...NOT TOO COOL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...850 TEMPS
CREEPING TOWARD +2OC FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 80SF...TESTING 90F DEGREES FOR
THE URBAN AREAS. NO REAL FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE MTNS...SO KEPT ANY PRECIP
THREAT MAINLY DIURNAL AND PRIMARILY TARGETED TO THE MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS EXITED THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SECONDARY COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF REGION THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. FEW REMAINING SHRA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO FADE
UPON APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SO EXPECTING OVERALL LACK OF PRECIP
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HOWEVER FLYING CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS AREAS
OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AND OUT EAST ESPCLY AROUND
KDAN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
FOG WITH KROA ONLY SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR LATE.
EXPECT LOW CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH HEATING
WED MORNING BEFORE THE FLOW SLOWLY TURNS MORE SE ALLOWING BKN 4-6K
FT CU CIGS TO REDEVELOP ESPCLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. EASTERN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLYH/KDAN MAY SEE LOW CIGS/VSBYS HANG ON LONGER
UNDER LIGHT NE FLOW. LATEST MODELS THEN SUGGEST SOME LATE DAY
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL MAINLY KROA/KBCB SO INCLUDING A VCTS THERE.
OTRW LEAVING OUT PRECIP MENTION GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE ELSW.
LEFTOVER CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE CORRIDOR WITH MOST OF THIS
COVERAGE LIKELY ENDING UP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE ENDING
LATER WED NIGHT. ADDED FOG THEN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOSTLY
BEYOND THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD SO WONT INCLUDE MENTION.
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED DIURNAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...WITH LOCALLY
BRIEF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS
BR...LOCALLY IFR FG...ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTRW
OVERALL VFR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE/AFTER ANY RIDGE
ORIENTED CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JC/JH/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1024 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A band of moderate rain will develop over the Idaho Panhandle and
extreme eastern Washington and continue on Wednesday. More rain is
expected on Thursday, mainly across the northern and eastern
mountains. The rain will gradually subside on Friday with a drying and
warming trend expected this weekend. Wetter and cooler weather
will return early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Radar is starting to show the north-south orientation to the
precip, with a band extending along the Oregon/Idaho border north
of Ontario up to Lewiston. 04Z RAP run has this fairly well depicted,
along with the small area of rain south of Spokane. The RAP
expects this area of rain to fall apart, which agrees with latest
radar trends. Then the north-south band of rain should move into
the southern panhandle and reach the BC border by about sunrise
Wednesday. Models continue to show a done-deal for moderate rain
in the panhandle including Coeur d`Alene, but more iffy to the
west (e.g. Spokane airport).
I have backed off a smidge on the rainfall amounts a bit from the
previous forecast as the new GFS agrees somewhat with the new NAM.
I also removed any mention of thunder from Wednesday`s forecast.
While there is an outside chance of a strike or 2 away from the
main band of rain, it`s just not worth keeping in the forecast, as
models don`t show any surface-based instability due to the
extensive cloud cover and the cold pool staying to our south. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A band of moderate rain will develop over the Idaho
Panhandle tonight and persist through much of Wednesday. This will
bring MVFR/IFR conditions to most of the TAFs (aside from KEAT and
KMWH). KCOE will likely be IFR all day long. KSFF will also see
some near-IFR conditions. Tougher call at KGEG which will be on
the western edge of the rain band. KPUW will likely have an IFR
cig in the morning but improve a bit in the afternoon.
To the west, KMWH and KEAT will just have VFR clouds. Gusty west
winds will develop in the late afternoon at KEAT in response to a
strong pressure gradient. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 51 54 45 55 44 61 / 100 100 80 80 50 60
Coeur d`Alene 52 54 46 54 42 60 / 100 100 100 90 50 60
Pullman 49 53 44 56 42 60 / 100 100 70 60 30 60
Lewiston 56 58 49 64 44 67 / 100 100 70 60 20 50
Colville 54 63 50 57 48 67 / 60 100 100 100 60 50
Sandpoint 54 56 46 53 45 60 / 100 100 100 100 60 60
Kellogg 50 51 44 51 39 57 / 100 100 100 100 50 60
Moses Lake 54 66 51 65 49 69 / 20 40 50 60 30 30
Wenatchee 52 66 52 64 51 68 / 30 40 50 60 40 30
Omak 54 66 51 64 50 69 / 20 70 70 80 60 50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
835 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:35 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY SUCCESSFULLY CLEARED
OUT THE MARINE LAYER OVERNIGHT. THIS MORNING THE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH COOLER MORNING TEMPERATURES. WENT AHEAD AND DID A QUICK
FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE CLOUDS AND FOG FROM THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST.
EXPECTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S COAST SIDE...80S AROUND THE BAY WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMEST INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO COOL OFF BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES ALONG THE COAST. LAST NIGHT`S RUN OF
THE ECMWF EVEN BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BE
NICE IF IT VERIFIES...BUT WILL WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE
COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THIS SCENARIO.
SUMMER BEGINS AT 05:04Z ON JUNE 21ST...OR 10:04 PM PDT JUNE 20TH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CA/OR BORDER. THIS
UPPER LOW HAS CAUSED MANY PROBLEMS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WASHING OUT
THE MARINE LAYER AND MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST STRATUS
FORMATION AND DISSIPATION. PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z. SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL WRF INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 16Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE
TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE TO
STRONG WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO JUST OVER 30 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHY STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 17Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL NOON
GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
441 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...500MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEARING THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS POSITIONED ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION...THE STRATUS FORMATION HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
FURTHER INLAND. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALSO FORECAST TO WARM THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS. COULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE.
HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AND FOLLOW MORE OF A PERSISTENT PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:40 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CA/OR BORDER. THIS
UPPER LOW HAS CAUSED MANY PROBLEMS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WASHING OUT
THE MARINE LAYER AND MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST STRATUS
FORMATION AND DISSIPATION. PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z. SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL WRF INDICATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 16Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE
TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE TO
STRONG WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO JUST OVER 30 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHY STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 17Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL NOON
GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON
SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
906 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
UPDATED GRIDS FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY CONDITIONS.
ALSO REFRESHED ALL FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WITH 12Z NAM12 DATA. -PJC
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FAR EASTERN PLAINS...FIRE WEATHER OVER
MTNS/VALLEYS...
CURRENTLY...
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HAS BEEN TRACKING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. STORM HAS TRACKED IN REMOTE
AREAS SO NO REPORTS...BUT ALGORITHMS HAVE BEEN INDICATING 2" HAIL
WITH IT AT TIMES...AND MODEST ROTATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ON AND OFF
WITH THE CELL.
OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS...LLVL MSTR HAS REMAINED IN PLACE WITH
SFC SE WINDS OVER THE REGION. SKIES HAVE CLOUDED UP OVER A GOOD PART
OF THE PLAINS WITH CIGS IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS...THE DRY AIR IS NOTED AS DWPTS ARE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS.
TODAY...
SIMULATIONS SHOW THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN ON THE COLORADO SIDE OF THE
CO/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
ALOFT...CONVG ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR ONE OR TWO STORMS TO
FORM. LATEST HRRR WAS HINTING AT THIS. SPC ALSO HAS FAR E PLAINS IN
SLIGHT RISK. CAPE IS FCST TO BE SIGNIFICANT...3000 J/KG...AND SHEAR
WILL BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE...SO IF ANY STORM GOES UP IT WILL
ROTATE AND IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME BIG HAIL. LCLS
WILL BE HIGH SO TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW.
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR GIVEN THE LOW DWPTS AND GUSTY SW
WINDS. QUITE A FEW AREAS ON THE PLAINS HAVE RECEIVED SOME BENEFICIAL
RAIN SO THE THREAT IS LESS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER IT WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY TODAY AND ANY AREAS WHICH HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
SIGNIF RAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER TODAY THAN THE YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 OVER THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY. EXPECT 70S MTNS WITH
80S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPS AROUND 90F WILL OCCUR IN MOST OF EL PASO
COUNTY.
TONIGHT...
EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SUPERCELL OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY. RH RECOVERY WILL BE VERY POOR
OVER THE MTNS...VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
...HIGH FIRE DANGER...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUT
THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG DRY PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-25. ALREADY HAVE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OUT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE
ONE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WIDESPREAD
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT. IN ADDITION
THE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EAST OF I-25 AS WELL...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE HOWEVER FUEL STATUS AND RECENT HEAVY RAINS PRECLUDE ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. FINE FUELS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AND MAY CURE QUICKLY WITH PERSISTENT DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS LEADING TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ON
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EJECTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MANAGE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE WARMING BACK UP FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN AND HELP REDUCE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN A BIT STRONGER BEFORE WEAKENING ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATING
THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY TO
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
MORNING LOW CIGS WILL AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. KALS WILL BE VFR
NEXT 24H.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>230.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>230.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PJC
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
630 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 9 AM...SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BISHOPVILLE
THROUGH NEWBERRY TO LINCOLNTON AT 10Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY WEAK AND FORCING LIMITED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES.
AFTER 9 AM...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE LATEST RUC AND NAM MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO LIKELY...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY FOR
THE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILTERS IN.
WENT NEAR CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CSRA. CONSENSUS MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW AFFECTING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT WE CAN EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MIXTURE OF VFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG. 88D CONTINUES TO SHOW
...MAINLY SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
ACTIVITY IS ALONG/SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS TRYING TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR
AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. AS LONG AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ACROSS THE CWA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT
THIS TIME AS LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
BY TONIGHT...MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
THE 06Z NAM MORE MOIST THAN THE 00Z GFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 06Z...BUT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEYOND THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
AS INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 9 AM...SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BISHOPVILLE
THROUGH NEWBERRY TO LINCOLNTON AT 10Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY WEAK AND FORCING LIMITED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES.
AFTER 9 AM...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE LATEST RUC AND NAM MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO LIKELY...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY FOR
THE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILTERS IN.
WENT NEAR CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CSRA. CONSENSUS MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW AFFECTING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE FLOW AROUND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT WE CAN EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AT THE TERMINALS CURRENTLY. RADAR INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. ONCE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATER
TONIGHT...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO ANY FOG/STRATUS THREAT FOR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED. LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY POINTING TO
POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
AFTER ANY MORNING RESTRICTIONS...EXPECT VFR WEDNESDAY. SOME DRIER
AIR WILL ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH CHANCES
OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BRINGING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF DIP IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FROM FRIDAY ON. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY SOME PATCHY MID CLOUD ACROSS THE AREA
NOW...AND SCATTERED CU STILL LOOK LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THOUGH. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
FORECASTS.
RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 11-12C ACROSS THE AREA WENT A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MAV NUMBERS. DAY WILL START OUT CLEAR BUT
TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB SO COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED CU IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SO USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT PREFERRED COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST SHOULD SEE WARM ADVECTION RAMP UP AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. USED A
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY BUT WENT WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ON
FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BREAKDOWN IN THE
RIDGE COULD TAKE PLACE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THUS KEEP
CENTRAL INDIANA DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS SUPPRESSES IT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS DAY 6 AND 7. WHILE THE
GEM AND OLD EURO DID NOT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT
WILL BE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT MAY PRODUCE LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z EURO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH SATURDAY WITH LESSER
CHANCES TOWARDS END OF THE EXTENDED. THE GFS INDICATED VERY LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BETTER
CHANCES ALL AREAS TOWARDS DAY 7. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
8 TO 10 CELSIUS RANGE WOULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS...BUT MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES. SOME CASES THE ALL BLEND
MAX TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE A BIT TOO COOL AND LEANED CLOSER TO MEX
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT KBMG AND KHUF WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE
PREVALENT AND CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING PRESENCE OF A SUBTLE
850MB THERMAL TROUGH.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE
A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE
REGION. CU RULE INDICATES A LITTLE CU. EXPECT ONLY FEW CU AT KIND
AND KLAF AND SCT CU ELSEWHERE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE EAST UP TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
638 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST NOW WITH WAA BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO WRN IA. SAT PIX SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLODS FROM DECAYING
BLOWOFF CLOUDS. DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO SWRN IA
WILL BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA THIS MORNING AS WAA ARC LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THE PRECIP TO THE WEST HALF HOWEVER.
COMBINATION OF NAMDNG5 AND HRRR GIVES A REASONABLE PRESENTATION OF
EXPECTED OUTCOME. TEMPS TODAY VERY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. FEEL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS TO GET HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUID AND
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR EXTENDED...WITH MANY PERIODS OF
POPS...AND SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...WITH BREAKS IN
PRECIP CHANCES FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRIVER FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOW WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER
PAC NW...AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY PUSH INLAND ATTM. MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES OVER PLACEMENT OF LOW...BUT SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS LOW PUSHES INLAND. RIDGE REMAINS OVER
IOWA THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH
SPARKING CONVECTION CHANCES.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN SHORT WAVES PROPAGATION
EASTWARD...WITH FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL NE PUSHING INTO
IOWA LATE OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SLOWED POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF MAIN PRECIP
BAND WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING...WITH PRECIP
THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND MAY FORM INTO MCS PUSHING ACROSS
IOWA...WITH NORTHERN IOWA MOST LIKELY LOCATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SD/MN AND HEAVIEST PRECIP MAY
STAY NORTH. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US. AS LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD...TRACKS OF WAVES WILL LIKELY GO NORTH OF CWA...BUT MAY
SEE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND SURFACE
LOW IN WESTERN PLAINS WILL ALSO LIFT NE AT THIS TIME...AND TIMING
AND LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND IS VERY
MUDDLED. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
IOWA WITH PROLONGED PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH
SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP WITH WAA FOR
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH SUMMER LIKE READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...19/12Z
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
A SELY FLOW OF WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE AND RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHRA OVER THE WRN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CIGS. TSRA WILL MOVE INTO WRN A TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME
THINKING IS THAT THE TSRA WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE TAF SITES
WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF THEM REACHING KFOD AND KDSM BY 12Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS JUN 13
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...MS JUN 13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
TOUGH FORECAST WAS MADE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT DUE TO THE
UNAVAILABILITY OF HRRR/00 UTC ECMWF AND RUC AFTER 0600 UTC DUE TO
PROBLEMS UPSTREAM. NONE OF THE REMAINDER OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
HAD MUCH OF A HANDLE ON ONGOING CONVECTION. NAM WAS PARTICULARLY
SUSPECT...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIALIZATION OF 850MB MOISTURE. BASED
ON 0000 UTC RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION AND OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS...
SEE LITTLE REASON WHY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL NOT CONTINUE TO
ROLL EAST DURING THE DAY AIDED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION...INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE. EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES/WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THINKING THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO EASTERN HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LULL IN
THE WESTERN HALF AROUND SUNSET. SEE NO REASON WHY STORMS WILL NOT
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN TONIGHT AND ROLL EAST.
THU REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WILL BE OR LOW LONG IT WILL LINGER. LARGE POTENTIAL FOR ERROR ON
ALL FACETS OF THIS FORECAST. HAVE LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE GFS
WHICH WAS THE LEAST WRONG GUIDANCE OUT OF THE BOX.
HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH DRY/WARMER/WINDIER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
-HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS.
SOME HINT ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THAT FRONT MAY SAG
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUN/SUN
NIGHT. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THESE CHANCES BUT IN ABSENCE OF
0000 UTC ECMWF WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. HAVE HEDGED
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ABOVE INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON LAST
WARM PERIOD AND BEST GUIDANCE AT THESE TIME RANGES. TEMPERATURES IN
TRIPLE DIGITS APPEAR PROBABLE IN CENTRAL KS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
HIGH CLOUDS WILL FLOAT OVERHEAD THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MID-
LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN KANSAS LATER TODAY AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 84 70 90 73 / 40 40 30 10
HUTCHINSON 87 69 91 72 / 40 50 20 10
NEWTON 85 68 89 72 / 40 40 30 10
ELDORADO 83 69 88 73 / 40 40 40 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 84 70 89 73 / 40 40 30 10
RUSSELL 89 68 94 71 / 50 50 10 10
GREAT BEND 89 68 93 72 / 50 50 10 10
SALINA 88 70 90 75 / 40 50 30 10
MCPHERSON 87 69 90 72 / 40 50 30 10
COFFEYVILLE 90 69 86 73 / 40 30 30 10
CHANUTE 88 68 84 72 / 40 30 30 10
IOLA 88 68 83 71 / 40 40 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 89 69 84 72 / 40 30 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/CHANCES THROUGH PERIOD
WITH HOW HOT DOES IT GET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY/COMPLICATED UPPER FLOW FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED
CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FL0W ALOFT
SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
IS DRAPED UP AGAINST THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL AND HAS SENT UP
MESOSCALE/CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES ACROSS DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. THE NAM/ECMWF LOOKED TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE WORST ON THE MID LEVELS WITH THE
UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS/SREF DOING ABOUT THE SAME. NAM WAS A LITTLE WARM
AT 700 MB WITH THE GFS AND UKMET BETTER. SREF AND GFS WERE DOING
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WENT
THROUGH...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE DO ABOUND. SATELLITE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST
PLUS A WARMER AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MASS/EML MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. NEAR 12Z THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF SOUTHERN JET WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. IT STAYS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH AS SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
VERY UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES BEING A BIG INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ONE OF
THOSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION. ALL
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE RAP REDEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AREA
OVER THE NORTHEAST TO EAST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONSIDERING THAT THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS...
MATCHES UP WITH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS RIGHT NOW AND THAT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA...
WILL RAISE POPS TO A HIGH CHANCE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
THAT CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO EXIT THE AREA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO RELOAD WITH EMPHASIS
SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. WHAT LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER THE FAR WEST
WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER. THE FAR WESTERN MAY BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THESE STORMS SHOULD
PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN THIRD.
DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE WET GROUND AND ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THIS DAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE LOWEST
AND CAP BREAKABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON...EITHER A WEAK COOL FRONT OR
SURFACE TROUGH SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL
THESE FEATURES PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON A WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND WILL BE AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER BY LATE IN THE
NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF EVEN WITH WHAT LOOKS TO
BE A DEEP DRY LAYER AND HIGH BASES. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH HERE TO
INCLUDE A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THINGS TOTALLY
CAPPED OR BE ABLE TO BREAK LOOSE.
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...IN THE 90S. SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE NEAR 100
DEGREES. MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE BOUNDARY.
CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE AIR MASS LIKE THE BOUNDARY BEING
FURTHER NORTH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP A WEAK LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THE DAY BEFORE
EXCEPT MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS DO LOOK CAPPED DESPITE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE NEAR THE SAME PLACE. THE EASTERN
THIRD HAS THE LOWER 700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS
AND BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS COMING ACROSS. LIKED WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
HAD IN THERE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AND ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP.
MODEL DATA SAYS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND SO
WILL THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDED THE MAXES IN THAT DIRECTION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2013
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT 500 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY AS MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FLOW AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALONG WITH STRONGEST POSITIVE VORTICITY VALUES...HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL ENTER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TUESDAY...AND JET STREAM WILL STAY WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 850 MB JET
SPEEDS ARE VERY STRONG DUE TO NOCTURNAL EFFECT FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOWARD WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE
SOME UNSTABLE WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCING. ONCE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THE JET SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
CALM FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARM...WITH VALUES IN THE MID
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THETA E VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT 850 AND AT
THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS. DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A 30 DEGREE DRY LINE
GRADIENT PRESENT IN THE WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH BEST SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXISTS FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MARGINAL AT BEST. THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
TO THE EAST TOWARDS MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WARM AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT INCREASES TEMPERATURES. MORE
STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES THAT MAY REACH
NEAR 100.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES WILL HELP PRODUCE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD AND KMCK. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS POINT AS TO LOCATION OF FORMATION...AS BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE WEST OF THE TAF SITES IN THE COLORADO COUNTIES. THEREFORE...NO
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KMCK WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
BOTH SITES TODAY...GUSTING TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. BOTH VISIBILITIES
AND CEILING HEIGHTS FOR THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
623 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
CIRRUS SHIELD NOTED ON IR SATELLITE ENTERING FAR WESTERN MN.
SHIELD IS JUST AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ABOVE EASTERN
MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE EJECTED OUT OF 50H TROF OVER PACIFIC
NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO WESTERN NODAK AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTACHED TO SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL BE CATALYST FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS MORNING OVER FAR WESTERN CWA. USED GFS40 THETA E
ADVECTION AND HRRR GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF DAYTIME
CONVECTION OVER FA. COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SW MN
TO...AS JOULES INCREASE INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 RANGE. MODERATE
250MB DIVERGENCE COUPLETS ALSO NOTED OVER THESE AREAS ALONG WITH
LI`S PLUNGING INTO THE NEGATIVE 4 TO NEGATIVE 8 CATEGORY. ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE THICKER CLOUD DECK THEN CURRENT CIRRUS
SHIELD PROGGED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
PRESENCE AND PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEEPER INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MN TONIGHT SHOULD PORTEND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...WITH QPF VALUES ALSO RISING NOTICEABLY.
COULD BE A QUICK QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF INCH OF MOISTURE
GENERATE FROM CONTINUE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. 850MB
LAPSE RATES AND LI`S WILL ALSO RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO FORM BY LATE TONIGHT OVER MUCH
OF MN FA ...WITH 25 TO 30KT MAGNITUDES COMMON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA TO OWATONNA. COULD BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG TO
NEAR SEVERE T-STORMS OVER WESTERN HALF OF FA DURING THE
EVENING...SWITCHING TO FAR EAST CENTRAL MN/WEST CENTRAL WI AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
WARM AND MOISTURE-RICH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE END OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING PERIODS OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN/WI THRU TDA WILL SHIFT TO THE E THRU THU
WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING NOT ONLY OVER TOP THE RIDGE BUT ALSO
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU INTO FRI WILL WORK WITH AN
INCOMING SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL-NRN
PLAINS. SOLID SW FLOW WILL BRING NOT ONLY WARMER AIR /WHICH WILL
RAISE H5 HEIGHTS TO ENHANCE CAPPING BUT ALSO STRONGER JETTING/ BUT
ALSO MOISTURE-RICH AIR /HELPING RAISE PWATS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES AND
ENHANCE INSTABILITY/...AND THE SFC FRONTAL WAVES COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC INVOF THE APCHG CDFNT
FOR THE WRN HALF OF MN. ONCE THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LOST OVER
WRN MN...STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL JETTING WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITHIN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRON /INCLUDING DEWPOINTS NEAR-
OVER 70 DEGREES/ WILL PROMOTE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. THE REGIME THEN TRANSITIONS
TO ONE OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
OPENS UP AND BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE PROLIFIC SWLY FLOW WHILE THE
NW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OPENS TO MORE OF A TROUGH THAN CUTOFF LOW.
LONG PLUME OF SLY SFC FLOW WILL AID IN BRINGING MOISTURE WELL N
INTO THE UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION. MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH MUCH OF IT CONVECTIVE...TRYING TO PINPOINT
WHERE SUCH RAINFALL EVENTS MAY OCCUR IS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC.
STILL...HAVE KEPT HIGH-END CHC POPS GOING IN THE FCST. POPS
DIMINISH FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DEVELOPS...KEEPING ANY ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEMS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THAT SAID...SEVERAL MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR CIRRUS AND ISOLATED MID LEVEL DECK OVER WESTERN HALF OF
TAF SITES SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. LOOK FOR THIS LAYER TO OVERSPREAD
REMAINDER OF REGION BY ABOUT 15Z. PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CATALYST FOR WDLY SCT CONVECTION OVER MOST
AIRPORT SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTN. LIGHT SE FLOW BECOMES MDT
WITH MIXING BY 15Z ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI. MUCH BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION KICKS OFF KAXN AND KRWF AFT 07Z...AND
OVER REMAINDER OF TAF AREA BY 10Z...AS LOW LEVEL FORCING AND
JET STREAM SUPPORT INCREASES MARKEDLY. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WITH
OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS ACTIVITY WITHIN VCNTY OR OVERHEAD.
KMSP...
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH MOST OF TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT
OCNL MODERATE SE FLOW EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG
T-STORMS ANTICIPATED AFTER 10Z TONIGHT...IN TANDEM WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET STREAM. POSSIBILITY OF SHORT TERM LLWS 20/06Z-20/12Z
TIME FRAME. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION LATE. COULD BE VCSH AT KMSP UNTIL 20/20Z...UNTIL
FORCING DIMINISHES.
THU...VFR. CHC OF MVFR. TSRA LIKELY. SSE WINDS 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC OF MVFR. TSRA LIKELY FRI NIGHT. S WINDS 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC OF MVFR TSRA. S WINDS 5-12 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC OF MVFR TSRA. S-SW WINDS 5-12KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...AJZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1036 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
A WEAK AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A S/WV AND TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS DELTA.
THE ENHANCED SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AIDED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AID IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. WENT CLOSE TO MAV POPS AS HRRR WAS
INDICATING MOST ACTIVITY ALONG AND S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...MAINLY
IN THE SE...AND WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL
TOTALS AROUND 25-26C WILL AID IN SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG STORMS. TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO
BE RUNNING ON TRACK AND DID NOT MODIFY HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
ONLY MODIFIED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS.
ALSO MODIFIED CLOUD COVER GRIDS TO ONLY SLIGHTLY SPEED UP SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF CLOUD COVER. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIG AT A FEW LOCALES WILL TREND VFR BY LATE MORNING
W/VFR CONDS PERSISTING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NUMEROUS SHRA
WILL IMPACT SE MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY
TAKES SHAPE THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE ISOLD SHRA WILL BE PSBL THIS
MORNING DECLINING IN COVERAGE THRU THE AFTN. MVFR/IFR CIG AND PSBLY
VSBY CAN BE XPCTD AT HBG/MEI AND PSBLY JAN/HKS TOMORROW MORNING
10-14Z. /BK/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE
AROUND PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR TODAY AND THU...BUT THESE
CHANCES WILL OVERALL LESS THAN WHAT THE AREA HAS SEEN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. ONE OF THE KEY FEATURES THAT WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
IS THE STALLED WEAK SFC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME BROAD/DIFFUSE...BUT IS GENERALLY SITUATED FROM TUP TO MLU.
WHILE IT WOULD SEEM THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF SAID BOUNDARY
WOULD HAVE THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY...THIS NOT TRULY THE
CASE. THE REASON IS THAT SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS PRESENT
FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF I-20. THIS IS IN PART TO NORTHERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW DRAWING SOUTHWARD THAT DRIER AIR AS THE S/WV PASSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING. WITH ALL OF
THIS...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH TODAY ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL FOCUS FROM THE STALLED
SFC BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH AXIS QUITE WELL AND IT IS SITUATED JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD ASSIST LIFT (ESP THIS MORNING) AND GENERATE PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT THE AIRMASS HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER QUIET A BIT...OVER ALL LESS STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED. THUS...FOLLOWING THE 20-40% POPS FROM THE GFS SEEM VALID.
WITH ANOTHER EARLY START TO ACTIVITY...WILL TREND POPS/WX DOWN FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LIKE YESTERDAY...TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
THE EARLY START TO PRECIP. GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WELL AND HAVE
FOLLOWED. TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET WITH CLEARINGS SKIES.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEE WITH UPPER 60S
EXPECTED.
THURSDAY WILL BE A TRICKIER FORECAST AS THE PREV MENTIONED SFC
BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE IN THE GENERAL AREA BUT LIKELY
SITUATED/ORIENTED IN A DIFFERENT MANNER. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
OVERALL LOWER AREAWIDE WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT GENERALLY ACROSS
THE SW/S HALF. WHAT MAKES THE FORECAST TRICKY IS THE PRESENCE OF A
DISTINCT S/WV DROPPING SE. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE
COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID LEVEL AND ALOFT. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO BE SITUATED IN A WAY THAT SUPPORTS UPWARD MOTION. EVEN AS
THESE FAVORABLE FEATURES EXIST...MODEL DATA IS NOT SHOWING MUCH
DEVELOPMENT. I CAN`T ARGUE THAT THERE WILL BE LESS OVERALL
POTENTIAL...BUT FEEL THAT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS WILL EXIST THAT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
THAT...HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM 10% TO 20% AND MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME...I WILL NOT MENTION ANY
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG STORMS...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
AS THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO BETTER LAPSE RATES AND A BIT
HIGHER INSTABILITY AS SFC TEMPS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER. /CME/
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
TRY BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND UP THE
EAST COAST. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE TROUGH WILL LEAVE BEHIND A PIECE
OF ENERGY THAT`LL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
WANE HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTED HIGHS AND LOWS LOOK REASONABLE
THIS MORNING. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...WHILE LOWS EACH NIGHT GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 89 66 91 69 / 25 9 17 6
MERIDIAN 87 64 91 68 / 27 12 15 12
VICKSBURG 88 64 91 68 / 21 7 17 4
HATTIESBURG 87 68 92 69 / 40 24 23 12
NATCHEZ 87 67 90 68 / 34 9 23 6
GREENVILLE 90 68 94 70 / 6 4 7 3
GREENWOOD 90 65 93 68 / 7 4 5 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/BK/CME/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
913 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE N OF A KLVM TO KBIL LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF CONVECTION INHIBITION CAN BE
OVERCOME OVER SE MT...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE TOO.
PLENTY OF FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. DIFLUENT FLOW WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING. UPPER LOW WAS ALSO SEEN ON IMAGERY NEGATIVELY TILTING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. A STRONG 500 MB FLOW W OF THE AREA AT 12Z
WILL MOVE E DURING THE DAY BRINGING INCREASING SHEAR. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES TODAY AS WELL. MORE LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
JET DIVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT.
THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOWED THE BEST MOISTURE
BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NE PART OF MT.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE MOISTURE FROM WY/SE ID/UT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE AROUND /0.30/ INCHES WHICH WAS DRY AIR.
AS FOR INSTABILITY...HIGH CAPES AND HELICITIES WILL BE E OF KBIL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL NEED TO
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. STORMS THAT FORM ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER WILL BE IN A HIGH CAPE/INCREASING SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WELL. THE AREAS WHERE
SEVERE STORMS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WERE MENTIONED WERE IN GOOD
SHAPE PER THE ABOVE.
NOTE THAT THE 12Z HRRR HAS NOTHING DEVELOPING UNTIL 22Z THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE GOING FORECAST. THE SYSTEM/S COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY 00Z TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SPC SSEO FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT SHOWED ACTIVE
WEATHER EXITING THE AREA BETWEEN 06-09Z TONIGHT.
ONLY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENT WAS TO LOWER READINGS INTO THE 80S IN
FAR SE MT WHERE MIXING WILL BE JUST ABOVE 850 MB. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
...TODAY...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PIVOT A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PUSH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY TONIGHT.
THE ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND BEHIND THE LOW WILL
PUSH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOIST GULF MOISTURE TAP WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW INTO THE GGW AND TFX FORECAST
AREAS. EXPECT TO SEE DEW POINTS CRASH INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MIXING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED IN THE LATE MORNING. OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN ON THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DRY AIR AND MUCH MORE
MOIST AIR AND SHOULD RETAIN DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. THESE HIGHER
DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND
EVEN SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD BILLINGS THE LCLS WILL BE ALMOST
15K FEET WITH ALL THE CAPE EXTREMELY ELEVATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROGRESS FROM THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS TO HARLOWTON TO ROUNDUP TO
NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 03 TO 06Z AS THE THREAT
SHIFTS NORTH.
...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST.
COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ZONES. WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES CRASHING
AROUND +13C TO DOWN TO AROUND +5C. THUS EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO STAY MAINLY IN THE 70S THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL
BE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY AND A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN WYOMING GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
ALLOWS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING SOME SHOWERS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
CHURCH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
SLOWING TREND OF TRANSIT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE AREA IS
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY BUT HELPING MAKE LATER PERIODS DRIER. FRIDAY WILL STILL
BE SEEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERING SO THERE IS A THREAT OF
CONVECTION BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA AND
REALLY GIVES A CHANCE FOR MOISTURE TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA AT THE LOWER LEVELS DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT STILL TRYING TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR. WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE
AND PLAINS MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE TO GET WET. SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THE STRENGTH OF STORMS WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR
BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO COOL BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY COULD RUN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY IF
CLOUDS DOMINATE AND ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS.
MONDAY AND BEYOND IS DRYING AS FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND NEXT
UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO EJECT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
MONTANA. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS
WEST OF BILLINGS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF KBIL.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 052/077 052/072 052/069 051/078 054/082 056/082
1/T 11/B 23/T 34/T 41/B 11/B 22/T
LVM 085 043/072 041/069 042/067 046/079 046/082 049/081
3/T 22/T 23/T 35/T 50/B 02/T 22/T
HDN 095 053/078 052/074 050/072 050/078 052/082 052/083
1/T 11/B 32/T 34/T 41/B 11/B 22/T
MLS 096 058/081 055/076 056/076 055/080 056/083 057/083
1/N 21/B 44/T 34/T 43/T 11/B 11/B
4BQ 095 054/081 055/076 054/075 053/079 054/084 055/084
1/N 11/B 44/T 34/T 52/T 11/B 22/T
BHK 087 057/080 054/076 055/074 054/076 054/080 057/082
1/N 21/B 36/T 55/T 53/T 11/B 22/T
SHR 090 048/078 050/073 048/073 047/076 049/081 050/082
1/T 11/B 32/T 24/T 41/B 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE APPARENT MINIMAL COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE
W/RESPECT TO TIMING...NO MENTION WAS MADE AT TAFS EXPECT AT KOFK
LATE TONIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL JET MAY HAVE MORE SUCCESS IN BRINGING
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TOWARD THAT AREA. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IT REALLY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN ANY PERIOD IN THAT TIME THAT SHOULD NOT WARRANT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. THEREFORE...WE WILL BE CARRYING A SMALL POP
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING/LOCATION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED RATHER POORLY ON
WEAK CONVECTIVE EVENTS IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COASTS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS IS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN BETWEEN THE MAIN FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR MOSIAC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND
WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE ANOTHER MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND WEAKENS. LATEST RAP BRINGS
A HINT OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AM GOING TO TWEEK POPS ACCORDINGLY. BROAD SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...FEEL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A CHANCE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND COULD SUSTAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A POP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN ADDITION...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA HOWEVER A QUITE STOUT CAP WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH MAY
PROHIBIT THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF TSTMS. SPC HAS INCLUDED OUR
NORTH IN THE SWODY2 FOR ANY MCS ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NRN
PLAINS CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A VEERING SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL JET AND SO HAVE HIGHER POPS GOING IN OUR NORTH.
THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TOWARD
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE LOW 90S.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...THE
SFC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND BE THE POTENTIAL FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
KERN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
SFC FRONT ROUGHLY FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY SW-WARD TO JUST NORTH OF
BKW AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT QUICKER CLEARING ACROSS SE OHIO AND INTO ADJACENT WEST
VIRGINIA. INGESTED RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
ONCE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS SCATTER/LIFT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN...WHICH
COULD IMPACT EKN.
NEAR-CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN FOG AND
REDUCED VSBYS ONCE AGAIN BY AND AFTER 03Z MAINLY FOR LOWLAND WEST
VIRGINIA LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR ACROSS SE OHIO AND MORE OVERNIGHT
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG IN THESE AREAS.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING MAY VARY. ONSET...COVERAGE...AND DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS
AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY AS WELL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
649 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
SFC FRONT ROUGHLY FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY SW-WARD TO JUST NORTH OF
BKW AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT QUICKER CLEARING ACROSS SE OHIO AND INTO ADJACENT WEST
VIRGINIA. INGESTED RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH
A CONTINUED MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
ONCE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS SCATTER/LIFT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN...WHICH
COULD IMPACT EKN.
NEAR-CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN FOG AND
REDUCED VSBYS ONCE AGAIN BY AND AFTER 03Z MAINLY FOR LOWLAND WEST
VIRGINIA LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR ACROSS SE OHIO AND MORE OVERNIGHT
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG IN THESE AREAS.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING MAY VARY. ONSET...COVERAGE...AND DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS
AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY AS WELL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1034 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS TX PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING WITH SOME ASSOCIATED ANVIL CIRRUS SPREADING INTO FAR
WESTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION A RELATIVE
MOIST AXIS FROM ARKLATEX INTO NC OK ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER CLOUDS
AND WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...FEEL
THAT WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS THE OVERALL COVERAGE/PROB TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. THIS MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT
STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL HAVE A
HIGHER THREAT OF MOVING INTO EASTERN OK BY EARLY THU MORNING
HOWEVER. OVERALL FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND WILL MAKE UPDATES
FOR LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND TO INCORPORATE
HOURLY TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION AT NE OK
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. BEFORE WE GET INTO SOMETHING
OF A DRY PERIOD...THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. THIS MORNING THERE IS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS COMPLEX MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS IT DECAYS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY BUT NOT FEELING OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS DECISION. COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CREATED BY THIS COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DO
HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 90 71 90 74 / 10 10 20 10
FSM 90 68 92 71 / 10 10 10 0
MLC 89 70 91 73 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 88 69 88 72 / 10 20 30 10
FYV 86 64 87 68 / 10 10 10 0
BYV 87 65 88 68 / 10 10 10 10
MKO 88 69 89 72 / 10 10 20 10
MIO 89 68 88 71 / 10 20 30 10
F10 88 70 90 73 / 10 10 10 10
HHW 89 70 92 72 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
652 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE S/SE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KWWR AND KGAG THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH NOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION...
THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT OUT A MENTION IN THE KWWR...KGAG...AND KPNC
TAFS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...SO KEPT CEILINGS AT VFR AT THE MOMENT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH...PICKING UP THROUGH
NOON...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A WEAK MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SRN KS AND
NWRN OK. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/THETA E AXIS POSITIONED ALONG/NEAR THE WRN KS/OK
BORDER.
OVERALL...MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT GO THIS MORNING IN
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS. CURRENT THOUGHTS LEAN
TOWARD THE MCS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD. CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL OK...WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE
IS LESS FAVORABLE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY.
THERE IS DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...30-40KTS SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
OK...BUT MUCAPES REMAIN LOW FOR MCS SUPPORT...700 TO 1000 J/KG.
OVERALL...THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WILL POSE A FAIRLY DECENT
CHALLENGE FORECASTWISE. THE RECENT 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR REVISES ITS
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE MAIN
LINE AND SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MIGHT BE A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO...AS NEW CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SINCE 230 AM...ACROSS SERN CO AND THE OK PANHANDLE. FOR THE
MOMENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NWRN OK THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHALLOW 500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT/TILT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND THE PAC NW TROUGH DIGGING EASTWARD...A STOUT SFC
TROUGH/FRONT WILL EXTEND THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WEAK SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN
OK...PRIMARILY WELL NORTH OF THE I-40 AND I-44 CORRIDORS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY AFTER THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE
HOLD...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S...APPROACHING THE 100S ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX.
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NWRN OK SUNDAY AS
THE WRN TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND A SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION...BUT AT THE MOMENT...EXPECT THE GOOD MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 69 89 71 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 90 70 96 72 / 30 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 72 95 73 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 87 69 96 73 / 70 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 85 69 88 72 / 30 30 30 10
DURANT OK 88 71 91 72 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/04/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
617 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION AT NE OK
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. BEFORE WE GET INTO SOMETHING
OF A DRY PERIOD...THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. THIS MORNING THERE IS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS COMPLEX MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS IT DECAYS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY BUT NOT FEELING OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS DECISION. COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CREATED BY THIS COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DO
HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
659 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDS PREVAIL OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS WITH VIS
GENERALLY AROUND 5SM. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG PRIMARILY
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS BUT THIS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL PREVAIL VFR CONDS IN THE
METROPLEX...ALTHOUGH AN AMD OR TWO MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS DROPS
FURTHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY
AS THEY APPROACH SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
THE ONLY MAJOR FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY.
LIGHT WIND AND DAMP GROUND ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE IN
EAST TEXAS BUT A FEW NORTH TEXAS LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 1/2
MILE VISIBILITY. BY 11 AM...ANY FOG THAT DID DEVELOP WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED.
A COMPLEX OF STORMS...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COMPLEX
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE
SOLUTION OF ALL MODELS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS SO WILL FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF
THE WEST TEXAS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND MID MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S AND SOME LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS DUE TO THE WEAK SHEARED AND
WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
FROM A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL NEVER BECOME
EXTREMELY STRONG AND AS A RESULT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 94 74 95 75 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
WACO, TX 94 72 94 73 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 91 70 92 71 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 94 71 95 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 91 69 92 70 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 94 75 94 76 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 92 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 92 72 93 73 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 70 94 70 96 / 20 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
312 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
..POSSIBLE ISOLATED SEVERE TONIGHT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS 3 TO 4
THOUSAND J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 40KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH LITTLE CIN. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP TRY TO INITIATE A
FEW CELLS IN THIS AREA BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z TONIGHT. ANY STORM THAT
IS ABLE TO INITIATE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ALSO PUSH THE DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
INTO EXTREME EASTERN PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES AS WELL AS CENTRAL
LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ISOLATED IN THESE AREAS.
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...DEWPOINTS WERE QUICK TO DROP WEST OF
THE INTERSTATE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS MORNING...AND ARE SLOWLY
DROPPING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THESE AREAS. THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD AND WILL LEAVE IT
INTACT.
THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A QUASISTATIONARY CUT OFF LOW
CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
TEXAS. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND AREAS WESTWARD.
GUSTY WINDS...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND DRY FUELS WILL PROMOTE EXTREME
FIRE GROWTH IN THESE AREAS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT 11AM FOR THESE AREA.
THE NAM12/GFS INDICATE THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
BACA COUNTY. IF THE DRYLINE SETS UP FARTHER WESTWARD THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR STORM
INITIATION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. -PJC
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. IT GETS A LITTLE TRICKIER
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...MAINLY PUEBLO...EL
PASO...AND TELLER COUNTIES...WITH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY COMING UP JUST
SHY OF 25 MPH FOR THE REQUIRED 3 HOUR WINDOW. HOWEVER WINDS LOOK A
LITTLE STRONGER ON THE GFS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THESE AREAS
IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 100 ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH GENERALLY 60S/70S AND 80S ACROSS THE MTS/VALLEYS...RHS
ALL AREAS DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 PERCENT. FUELS ARE STILL TOO
MOIST OR HAVE GREENED UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EAST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR WITH RECENT RAINFALL SO NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED FOR
THEM AT THIS TIME.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER ALONG
THIS DRY LINE. ELSEWHERE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POTENTIAL RED FLAG
DAY.
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF FUELS DRY OUT
SUFFICIENTLY...ITS POSSIBLE MORE OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY NEED TO
BE INCLUDED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK VERY LOW...THOUGH ECMWF
HAS THE DRY LINE FLIRTING WITH THE EASTERN BORDER.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY...THIS DOES HELP TO TAPER BACK
WINDS WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SOME. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS...KCOS...AND KPUB THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AT ALL THREE SITES WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN AT OR AROUND 17Z
THURSDAY MORNING. -PJC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A PROLONGED HOT DRY AND WINDY PATTERN SETS UP
OVER THE DISTRICT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST VOLATILE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WINDS APPEAR TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON AND WITH HAINES VALUES RUNNING AROUND
6...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR PLUME DOMINATED
FIRES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE NOT CONSIDERED
CRITICAL EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...HOT DRY CONDITIONS MAY CURE
FUELS AND MAKE THEM RECEPTIVE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...THUS
EXTREME CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID WILDFIRE STARTS THROUGH THIS
HOT DRY PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HOT AND
DRY NONE-THE-LESS. -KT/PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>230.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ220>230.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ220>230.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PJC
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PJC
FIRE WEATHER...PJC/KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1116 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
UPDATED GRIDS FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY CONDITIONS.
ALSO REFRESHED ALL FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WITH 12Z NAM12 DATA. -PJC
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FAR EASTERN PLAINS...FIRE WEATHER OVER
MTNS/VALLEYS...
CURRENTLY...
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HAS BEEN TRACKING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. STORM HAS TRACKED IN REMOTE
AREAS SO NO REPORTS...BUT ALGORITHMS HAVE BEEN INDICATING 2" HAIL
WITH IT AT TIMES...AND MODEST ROTATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ON AND OFF
WITH THE CELL.
OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS...LLVL MSTR HAS REMAINED IN PLACE WITH
SFC SE WINDS OVER THE REGION. SKIES HAVE CLOUDED UP OVER A GOOD PART
OF THE PLAINS WITH CIGS IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS...THE DRY AIR IS NOTED AS DWPTS ARE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS.
TODAY...
SIMULATIONS SHOW THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN ON THE COLORADO SIDE OF THE
CO/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
ALOFT...CONVG ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR ONE OR TWO STORMS TO
FORM. LATEST HRRR WAS HINTING AT THIS. SPC ALSO HAS FAR E PLAINS IN
SLIGHT RISK. CAPE IS FCST TO BE SIGNIFICANT...3000 J/KG...AND SHEAR
WILL BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE...SO IF ANY STORM GOES UP IT WILL
ROTATE AND IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME BIG HAIL. LCLS
WILL BE HIGH SO TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW.
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR GIVEN THE LOW DWPTS AND GUSTY SW
WINDS. QUITE A FEW AREAS ON THE PLAINS HAVE RECEIVED SOME BENEFICIAL
RAIN SO THE THREAT IS LESS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER IT WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY TODAY AND ANY AREAS WHICH HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
SIGNIF RAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER TODAY THAN THE YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 OVER THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY. EXPECT 70S MTNS WITH
80S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPS AROUND 90F WILL OCCUR IN MOST OF EL PASO
COUNTY.
TONIGHT...
EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SUPERCELL OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY. RH RECOVERY WILL BE VERY POOR
OVER THE MTNS...VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
...HIGH FIRE DANGER...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUT
THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG DRY PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-25. ALREADY HAVE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OUT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE
ONE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WIDESPREAD
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT. IN ADDITION
THE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EAST OF I-25 AS WELL...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE HOWEVER FUEL STATUS AND RECENT HEAVY RAINS PRECLUDE ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. FINE FUELS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AND MAY CURE QUICKLY WITH PERSISTENT DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS LEADING TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ON
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EJECTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MANAGE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE WARMING BACK UP FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN AND HELP REDUCE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN A BIT STRONGER BEFORE WEAKENING ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATING
THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY TO
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS...KCOS...AND KPUB THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN AT THESE SITES WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. -PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>230.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>230.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PJC
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
157 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE TRI-
STATE AREA. LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF RAP ANALYSIS AT H500 INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE FROM THIS FEATURE.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A DRY
AIRMASS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 40S. MIXING PROFILES
SUPPORT HIGHS OF MOSTLY 75-80.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...WITH LOWS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST OF THE SUBURBS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW-S
FLOW SETTING UP. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN SPITE OF THIS AS DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN. MIXING WON/T BE AS DEEP AS TODAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF GENERALLY 75-80 ONCE AGAIN.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG
TERM TIME FRAME. ALOFT...A MEAN TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG RIDGE MOVING IN
WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN QUICKLY
RISES THE HEIGHTS.
AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND USED
WPC GUIDANCE AS IT SEEMED REASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE
FLUXES. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.
MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT HAVE CONTINUED
THE DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OR LIFT. ON SATURDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THIS BOUNDARY COULD CREATE A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN FAR
NORTH AND WEST ZONES. HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. ECMWF ALSO TRYING TO HINT AT A POTENTIAL
DECAYING MCS TRACKING SE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF AN UPPER JET. WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION TNGT AND OFFSHORE ON THU.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
N WINDS INTO THIS EVE EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZE FLOW DEVELOPS. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE THRU THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT LIGHTEN.
NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFT 12Z THU.
ENHANCED FLOW ALONG THE S COASTS AFT 17-19Z THU...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS LIKELY TO BE AOA 15KT AT KJFK.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 21Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING TAF TEMPO PERIOD.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 23Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING TAF TEMPO PERIOD.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 00Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING TAF TEMPO PERIOD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VARIABILITY IN PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION
POSSIBLE THRU 22Z AS GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING TAF TEMPO PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU-FRI...VFR. PREVAILING SW WINDS.
.SAT-MON...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR OR LWR IN THE MRNG. ISOLD-SCT
AFTN/EVE TSTMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF THE CITY. SW
WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
A NORTHERLY FLOW AT AROUND 15 KT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS DEVELOPING NEARSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
A LIGHT RETURN S TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEREFORE
PREVAIL.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SUN-TUE BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/LN
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1236 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE TRI-
STATE AREA. LAST SEVERAL HUORS OF RAP ANALYSIS AT H500 INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE FROM THIS FEATURE.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A DRY
AIRMASS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 40S. MIXING PROFILES
SUPPORT HIGHS OF MOSTLY 75-80.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...WITH LOWS 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST OF THE SUBURBS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW-S
FLOW SETTING UP. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN SPITE OF THIS AS DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN. MIXING WON/T BE AS DEEP AS TODAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF GENERALLY 75-80 ONCE AGAIN.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS STILL BELOW
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COOL AS TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG
TERM TIME FRAME. ALOFT...A MEAN TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG RIDGE MOVING IN
WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN QUICKLY
RISES THE HEIGHTS.
AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND USED
WPC GUIDANCE AS IT SEEMED REASONABLE WITH NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE
FLUXES. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.
MODELS TRYING TO HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT HAVE CONTINUED
THE DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY OR LIFT. ON SATURDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THIS BOUNDARY COULD CREATE A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN FAR
NORTH AND WEST ZONES. HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. ECMWF ALSO TRYING TO HINT AT A POTENTIAL
DECAYING MCS TRACKING SE ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF AN UPPER JET. WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND THEREFORE THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...THEN SKC TONIGHT.
N-NNE AROUND 10 KT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS 15-20 KT...EXCEPT AT KEWR WHICH LIKELY WILL HAVE MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE LIKELY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING KBDR/KGON/KJFK/KISP/KLGA/KEWR.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 16-20Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 300 TRUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VERY LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE - LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. COULD BE OFF +/- 2 HOURS. ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY-SATURDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
A NORTHERLY FLOW AT AROUND 15 KT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS DEVELOPING NEARSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
A LIGHT RETURN S TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEREFORE
PREVAIL.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SUN-TUE BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...JC/LN/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
INITIATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES BEGIN TO PENETRATE INLAND. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL VORT PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLIER...WHICH SHOWED UP WELL ON THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
APPEAR TO BE INITIALIZING WELL WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
GENERALLY INDICATE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP AND BECOMING CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WRN
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS AS
THE SEA BREEZES BOUNDARIES PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND AND MERGE.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE TODAY...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GENERAL TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. AS A RESULT...WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE
BROKEN EACH NIGHT. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INDICATE A SLIGHT
DRYING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE WITH VALUES TRENDING DOWN TO AROUND 1.5".
HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO H7
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISLTD/SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
PERIODS. HAZY CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF DUST
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
DAY.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO NEAR
THE 2" MARK BY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE WAVE TRACKS WEST AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. AT KAPF, A WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND THEN THEY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY TRANSLATE TO BETTER SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZES PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 87 78 88 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 89 81 89 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 78 89 80 89 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 92 74 93 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...55/CWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
414 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH SMALL CHANCES
OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE HI-RES MODELS FOR
TRENDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ARW-WEST AND LATEST HRRR HAVE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAP SEEMS TO BE WINNING ATTM
AND CUT BACK ON POPS TO MAINLY THE FAR WEST EVEN THOUGH SURFACE
BASED CAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG WITH MUCAPE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE
IS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY SHEAR PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS..SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING LONG-LIVED. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES
INTO WESTERN IOWA PAST 06Z AS A BROAD AREA OF VORTICITY CUTS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. TRANSITIONED CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT
AND MAINLY KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA PAST 06Z THURSDAY
WHERE BEST FORCING IS PRESENT.
.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING OVER IOWA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AND WILL FOCUS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FLOW AND IMPACT MAINLY
NORTHERN IOWA AND AREAS TO THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD WHILE WARM
AIR ALOFT DRIVES A CAP INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. WHILE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE NORTH INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY TO LIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MIXED LAYER CIN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL
COOLING THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW STORMS. IF STORMS
FIRE...CERTAINLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. STILL SOME
HINTS THAT A DAKOTAS MCS COULD DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BECOMES CAPPED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AND HAVE BEGUN TO DROP POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BEING ACROSS THE NORTH. A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
70S. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES TO EXERT ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILDING NORTH. THE RING
OF FIRE MAY CLIP INTO NORTHERN IOWA DURING END OF THE PERIOD BY
THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE TO THE NORTH WITH SUMMER IN PLACE OVER
IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. LEFT MENTION OF
ANY THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM AS LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
INTRODUCED GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1244 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST NOW WITH WAA BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO WRN IA. SAT PIX SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLODS FROM DECAYING
BLOWOFF CLOUDS. DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO SWRN IA
WILL BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA THIS MORNING AS WAA ARC LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THE PRECIP TO THE WEST HALF HOWEVER.
COMBINATION OF NAMDNG5 AND HRRR GIVES A REASONABLE PRESENTATION OF
EXPECTED OUTCOME. TEMPS TODAY VERY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. FEEL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS TO GET HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUID AND
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR EXTENDED...WITH MANY PERIODS OF
POPS...AND SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...WITH BREAKS IN
PRECIP CHANCES FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRIVER FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOW WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER
PAC NW...AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY PUSH INLAND ATTM. MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES OVER PLACEMENT OF LOW...BUT SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS LOW PUSHES INLAND. RIDGE REMAINS OVER
IOWA THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH
SPARKING CONVECTION CHANCES.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN SHORT WAVES PROPAGATION
EASTWARD...WITH FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL NE PUSHING INTO
IOWA LATE OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SLOWED POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF MAIN PRECIP
BAND WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING...WITH PRECIP
THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND MAY FORM INTO MCS PUSHING ACROSS
IOWA...WITH NORTHERN IOWA MOST LIKELY LOCATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SD/MN AND HEAVIEST PRECIP MAY
STAY NORTH. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US. AS LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD...TRACKS OF WAVES WILL LIKELY GO NORTH OF CWA...BUT MAY
SEE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND SURFACE
LOW IN WESTERN PLAINS WILL ALSO LIFT NE AT THIS TIME...AND TIMING
AND LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND IS VERY
MUDDLED. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
IOWA WITH PROLONGED PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH
SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP WITH WAA FOR
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH SUMMER LIKE READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. LEFT MENTION OF
ANY THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM AS LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
INTRODUCED GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS JUN 13
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HOT AND MOSTLY DRY SUMMER WEATHER
LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
DIFFICULT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST TONIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY
A WEAK 700-500MB RIPPLE IS ADVANCING EAST ACROSS EASTERN KS. GIVEN
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIRMASS IN
PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED HIT-AND-MISS THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. NOT ANTICIPATING
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THOUGH. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LATER TONIGHT WHEN
EASTERN FRINGE OF ADVANCING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...DRAMATICALLY INCREASING 800-600MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FROM
WEST TO EAST...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2-3AM
WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES MAY BE OVER
CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE NOSE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
POINTING. NAM AND GFS ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS INDICATE ~2500 J/KG
INSTABILITY FROM PARCELS ROOTED AROUND 800MB...ALONG WITH AROUND 30
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...INDICATING STRONG TO SEVERE HAILERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM. HOWEVER...UNSURE ON HOW
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE GIVEN THE CONVECTION-SUPPRESSING AFFECTS
OF MID/UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MAY BE A REASON WHY THE LATEST HRRR AND KF NAM STRUGGLE IN
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. AGAIN...HIGHEST POTENTIAL MAY
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS AND POINTS NORTH.
NEVERTHELESS...HELD ONTO MODEST CHANCE POPS GIVEN STRENGTH OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ANTICIPATING ACTIVITY TO
FESTER MUCH OF THU MORNING EAST OF I-135...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
ADK
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
OTHERWISE...BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK...AND ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED HIT-AND-MISS
AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRI-SAT...AS ECMWF HINTS AT SUBTLE
WEAKNESSES PROGRESSING OVER THE AREA...BUT THINKING THIS THREAT WILL
BE QUITE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL
ECMWF BUILDING RIDGE INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S WILL PREVAIL
REGIONWIDE...WARMEST GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF KS...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ALL AREAS.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO
3500+ KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL ALLOW FOR AMENDMENTS IF SOMETHING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AND HAVE A VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR STORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE A
BIT WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT STILL EXPECTING GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MIXING.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 70 90 73 95 / 40 40 10 10
HUTCHINSON 69 93 73 96 / 40 30 10 10
NEWTON 68 88 73 94 / 40 50 10 10
ELDORADO 69 87 72 92 / 40 40 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 70 89 73 93 / 30 40 10 10
RUSSELL 68 97 73 98 / 40 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 68 97 72 97 / 30 10 10 10
SALINA 70 91 74 96 / 50 50 10 10
MCPHERSON 69 91 73 96 / 40 50 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 69 85 73 91 / 30 40 10 10
CHANUTE 68 84 72 90 / 30 40 10 10
IOLA 68 84 71 90 / 30 40 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 69 84 73 90 / 30 40 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
303 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT SALT LAKE. DOWNSTREAM THERE WAS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR THE MIDDLE MO RIVER
VALLEY MOVING EAST. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
GRADUALLY DEEPENING ALONG THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE. ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BECOME ILL-DEFINED.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...LAPS DATA AND RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND VERY LIMITED INHIBITION
LEFT. REALLY THE ONLY THING NEEDED FOR CONVECTION IS SOME SORT OF
LIFT TO GET PARCELS MOVING UP TO BECOME POSITIVELY BUOYANT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH RAP PROGS NOT SHOWING
MUCH INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH SUNSET. WITH NO REAL
LARGE SCALE FORCING TO SPEAK OF...THINK CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED IF IT DOES DEVELOP. THERE IS SOME SIGNS OF VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB. IF A STORM IS ABLE
TO DEVELOP AN OUTFLOW...THE GUST FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY. MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS DECENT MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASING OVER CENTRAL KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG THIS GRADIENT AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO
AROUND 7 C/KM. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KS THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF THE ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT AND WHERE IT
MIGHT TRACK PRECLUDE INCREASING POPS FROM THE PREV FORECAST. SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THINK
IF ELEVATED STORMS FORM...THAT THE RESULTING MCS SHOULD BE MOVING
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OR DIMINISHING WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET BY THE AFTERNOON AND THE POP FORECAST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD
TREND IN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME MODEST MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGHS THURSDAY MAY
BE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY AS THE MODELS SHOW WEAK MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO COLD POOL PUT DOWN BY THE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. EVEN IF THERE ARE STORMS...DO NOT THINK THEY WILL
PERSIST FOR THE WHOLE DAY AND WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME GOOD
INSOLATION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING. THEREFORE
HAVE HIGHS FOR THURSDAY IN THE MID 80S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE
CLOUDS AND PRECIP COULD POTENTIALLY HANG ON LONGER IN THE
MORNING...TO AROUND 90 IN NORTH CENTRAL KS WHERE SUNSHINE SHOULD
BREAK OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.
WOLTERS
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SOME CONCERN AS TO CONVECTION
REDEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SFC WARM
FRONT DRAPED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. NAM FORECASTED
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL MAY PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
POTENTIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. 305K-320K ISENTROPIC LIFT...55KT LLJ AND SOME MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS LACKING HOWEVER...LEAVING REDUCED
CONFIDENCE. LEFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON DRY ATTM. HOWEVER...IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY STILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWA. WITH A H5 SHRTWV PROGGED TO ENTER THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO REFIRE CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE
COMING WEEK AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH OVER 100 FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BROADEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY. CHANCES
INCREASE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I70 SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN H5 SHRTWV
TRAVELS NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. COLD
FRONT TRIES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS ON TUESDAY...BUT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT MOVES INTO CANADA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE BROADENS AND COVERS MUCH OF THE
CONUS BY TUESDAY. RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN OF NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90`S...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60`S AND 70`S.
BYRNE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
BECAUSE THERE IS NO FORCING OR SURFACE FEATURE FOR CONVECTION TO
FORM...THINK ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE AND HAVE REMOVED THE VCTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SINCE
PREDICTABILITY IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
SOME THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7 C/KM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL...BUT WITH ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWING
SOME PRECIP...WILL INCLUDE A VCTS MENTION THROUGH THE MORNING
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR WITH CU
FIELD FORMING AROUND 4 KFT.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...BYRNE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1245 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HAVE DECREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DID KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH THE
UPPER PV ENERGY MOVING OVER THE STATE AND THE MOISTURE
ABUNDANCE...CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION SCHEME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON ORGANIZED AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FEEL
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LET AFTERNOON
FORECAST TOUCH ON THAT.
BILLINGS
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
TOUGH FORECAST WAS MADE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT DUE TO THE
UNAVAILABILITY OF HRRR/00 UTC ECMWF AND RUC AFTER 0600 UTC DUE TO
PROBLEMS UPSTREAM. NONE OF THE REMAINDER OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
HAD MUCH OF A HANDLE ON ONGOING CONVECTION. NAM WAS PARTICULARLY
SUSPECT...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIALIZATION OF 850MB MOISTURE. BASED
ON 0000 UTC RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION AND OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS...
SEE LITTLE REASON WHY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL NOT CONTINUE TO
ROLL EAST DURING THE DAY AIDED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION...INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE. EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES/WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. THINKING THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO EASTERN HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LULL IN
THE WESTERN HALF AROUND SUNSET. SEE NO REASON WHY STORMS WILL NOT
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN TONIGHT AND ROLL EAST.
THU REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WILL BE OR LOW LONG IT WILL LINGER. LARGE POTENTIAL FOR ERROR ON
ALL FACETS OF THIS FORECAST. HAVE LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE GFS
WHICH WAS THE LEAST WRONG GUIDANCE OUT OF THE BOX.
HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH DRY/WARMER/WINDIER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
-HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS.
SOME HINT ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THAT FRONT MAY SAG
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUN/SUN
NIGHT. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THESE CHANCES BUT IN ABSENCE OF
0000 UTC ECMWF WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. HAVE HEDGED
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ABOVE INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON LAST
WARM PERIOD AND BEST GUIDANCE AT THESE TIME RANGES. TEMPERATURES IN
TRIPLE DIGITS APPEAR PROBABLE IN CENTRAL KS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT LOW CLUMULUS CLOUDS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO
3500+ KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL ALLOW FOR AMENDMENTS IF SOMETHING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AND HAVE A VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR STORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE A
BIT WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT STILL EXPECTING GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MIXING.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 87 70 90 73 / 30 40 30 10
HUTCHINSON 86 69 91 72 / 30 50 20 10
NEWTON 86 68 89 72 / 40 40 30 10
ELDORADO 86 69 88 73 / 30 40 40 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 70 89 73 / 30 40 30 10
RUSSELL 87 68 94 71 / 50 50 10 10
GREAT BEND 87 68 93 72 / 50 50 10 10
SALINA 88 70 90 75 / 40 50 30 10
MCPHERSON 86 69 90 72 / 40 50 30 10
COFFEYVILLE 88 69 86 73 / 20 30 30 10
CHANUTE 87 68 84 72 / 20 30 30 10
IOLA 87 68 83 71 / 20 30 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 87 69 84 72 / 20 30 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/CHANCES THROUGH PERIOD
WITH HOW HOT DOES IT GET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY/COMPLICATED UPPER FLOW FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED
CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FL0W ALOFT
SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
IS DRAPED UP AGAINST THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL AND HAS SENT UP
MESOSCALE/CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES ACROSS DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. THE NAM/ECMWF LOOKED TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE WORST ON THE MID LEVELS WITH THE
UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS/SREF DOING ABOUT THE SAME. NAM WAS A LITTLE WARM
AT 700 MB WITH THE GFS AND UKMET BETTER. SREF AND GFS WERE DOING
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WENT
THROUGH...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE DO ABOUND. SATELLITE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST
PLUS A WARMER AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MASS/EML MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. NEAR 12Z THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF SOUTHERN JET WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. IT STAYS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH AS SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
VERY UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES BEING A BIG INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ONE OF
THOSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION. ALL
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE RAP REDEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AREA
OVER THE NORTHEAST TO EAST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONSIDERING THAT THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS...
MATCHES UP WITH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS RIGHT NOW AND THAT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA...
WILL RAISE POPS TO A HIGH CHANCE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
THAT CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO EXIT THE AREA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO RELOAD WITH EMPHASIS
SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. WHAT LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER THE FAR WEST
WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER. THE FAR WESTERN MAY BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THESE STORMS SHOULD
PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN THIRD.
DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE WET GROUND AND ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THIS DAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE LOWEST
AND CAP BREAKABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON...EITHER A WEAK COOL FRONT OR
SURFACE TROUGH SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL
THESE FEATURES PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON A WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND WILL BE AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER BY LATE IN THE
NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF EVEN WITH WHAT LOOKS TO
BE A DEEP DRY LAYER AND HIGH BASES. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH HERE TO
INCLUDE A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THINGS TOTALLY
CAPPED OR BE ABLE TO BREAK LOOSE.
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...IN THE 90S. SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE NEAR 100
DEGREES. MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE BOUNDARY.
CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE AIR MASS LIKE THE BOUNDARY BEING
FURTHER NORTH.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP A WEAK LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THE DAY BEFORE
EXCEPT MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS DO LOOK CAPPED DESPITE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE NEAR THE SAME PLACE. THE EASTERN
THIRD HAS THE LOWER 700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS
AND BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS COMING ACROSS. LIKED WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
HAD IN THERE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AND ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP.
MODEL DATA SAYS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND SO
WILL THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDED THE MAXES IN THAT DIRECTION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2013
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT 500 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY AS MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FLOW AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALONG WITH STRONGEST POSITIVE VORTICITY VALUES...HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL ENTER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TUESDAY...AND JET STREAM WILL STAY WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 850 MB JET
SPEEDS ARE VERY STRONG DUE TO NOCTURNAL EFFECT FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOWARD WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE
SOME UNSTABLE WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCING. ONCE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THE JET SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
CALM FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARM...WITH VALUES IN THE MID
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THETA E VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT 850 AND AT
THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS. DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A 30 DEGREE DRY LINE
GRADIENT PRESENT IN THE WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH BEST SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXISTS FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MARGINAL AT BEST. THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
TO THE EAST TOWARDS MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WARM AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT INCREASES TEMPERATURES. MORE
STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES THAT MAY REACH
NEAR 100.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT BOTH SITES AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN DURING THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH BREEZE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS...KEEPING UP THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WHICH
MAY PROMPT A LLWS GROUP TO BE ADDED TO THE TAF. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW SO DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAF.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
430 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THEN NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA HAD DEVELOPED NEAR
CYRL ON THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH NW ONTARIO. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS ALSO LOCATED OVER ERN SD. AT THE SFC...SRLY
WINDS HAD INCREASED BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO ND FROM LOW PRES W OF JAMES BAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS ONLY SLOWLY INCREASING WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO NEAR
50F OVER THE WEST.
TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH THE FORCING WITH THE NW ONTARIO SHRTWV WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRA AND POSSIBLY
SOME TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
SLIDE INTO THE WRN CWA OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE
POSITION OF THE 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FAVORS GREATER PCPN
CHANCES/COVERAGE OVER NW LAKE SUPERIOR INTO MAINLY THE NW CWA.
MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED TSRA
DEVELOPMENT.
THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SD SHRTWV SHOULD BRING
INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE...AND A RELATIVELY NARROW CAPE PROFILE....SOME
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
CONVECTION WILL MAKE FOR A VERY TRICKY AND UNCERTAIN FORECAST THU
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE E INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...LEAVING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
/AS WITH MOST CONVECTIVE SITUATIONS/ WITH THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING OF
ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. MODELS
SHOW MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT...INCLUDING MOVING THE WARM FRONT N OF THE CWA KEEPING THE
BULK OF CONVECTION N OF THE CWA...TO HAVING THE WARM FRONT STALL S
OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION S. OVERALL...THE
BULK OF THE MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING OVER THE
CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO PUT THAT INTO THE FORECAST AS HAS BEEN
DONE BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD VERY WELL BE STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO
LOW TO INCORPORATE THAT INTO THE FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE SOME
MENTION OF STRONGER STORMS IN THE HWO. SPC HAS AREAS ALONG THE
BORDER UNDER A SLIGHT RIGHT...AND GENERALLY AGREE WITH THAT GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW UP TO 4500J/KG
/GFS/ OF SBCAPE NOSING INTO WRN UPPER MI FRI AFTERNOON...BUT THAT IS
THE HIGHEST AMOUNT AND LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVELS ARE OVERLY MOIST IN THE
MODEL. THE NAM IS ANOTHER MODEL THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH ON LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SBCAPE AT UP TO 3500J/KG ON FRI. ECMWF AND GEM SEEM
MORE REASONABLE AT 1000-1500J/KG ALONG THE WI BORDER SO WILL FAVOR
THAT SOLUTION. COULD HAVE DAYTIME CONVECTION BREAK OUT OVER WRN AND
CENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT CONTINUES
TO BE CONVECTION FORMING UPSTREAM AND MOVING TO THE ESE ALONG THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT FRI.
ANOTHER RISK FACTOR WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS
PWATS WILL BE 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
SAT AND SUN LOOK SIMILAR TO FRI...WITH SIMILAR UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTY. IN FACT...SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE INCREASES TOO
MUCH MON-WED TO TALK TOO MUCH ABOUT THIS TIME FRAME.
LOOKING AT TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SFC TEMPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM DAY
TO DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PEROID WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF UPPER MI BY SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING EVEN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SRLY FLOW. BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS THAT WILL SPREAD
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PERSIST...BUT
IF A MORE PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPS CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY
LOW WAVES. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRONGER WINDS/HAIL/LIGHTNING
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOP AS A RESULT
OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1257 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
CIRRUS SHIELD NOTED ON IR SATELLITE ENTERING FAR WESTERN MN.
SHIELD IS JUST AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ABOVE EASTERN
MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE EJECTED OUT OF 50H TROF OVER PACIFIC
NW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO WESTERN NODAK AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTACHED TO SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL BE CATALYST FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS MORNING OVER FAR WESTERN CWA. USED GFS40 THETA E
ADVECTION AND HRRR GUIDANCE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF DAYTIME
CONVECTION OVER FA. COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SW MN
TO...AS JOULES INCREASE INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 RANGE. MODERATE
250MB DIVERGENCE COUPLETS ALSO NOTED OVER THESE AREAS ALONG WITH
LI`S PLUNGING INTO THE NEGATIVE 4 TO NEGATIVE 8 CATEGORY. ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE THICKER CLOUD DECK THEN CURRENT CIRRUS
SHIELD PROGGED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
PRESENCE AND PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEEPER INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MN TONIGHT SHOULD PORTEND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...WITH QPF VALUES ALSO RISING NOTICEABLY.
COULD BE A QUICK QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF INCH OF MOISTURE
GENERATE FROM CONTINUE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. 850MB
LAPSE RATES AND LI`S WILL ALSO RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO FORM BY LATE TONIGHT OVER MUCH
OF MN FA ...WITH 25 TO 30KT MAGNITUDES COMMON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA TO OWATONNA. COULD BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG TO
NEAR SEVERE T-STORMS OVER WESTERN HALF OF FA DURING THE
EVENING...SWITCHING TO FAR EAST CENTRAL MN/WEST CENTRAL WI AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
WARM AND MOISTURE-RICH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE END OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING PERIODS OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN/WI THRU TDA WILL SHIFT TO THE E THRU THU
WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING NOT ONLY OVER TOP THE RIDGE BUT ALSO
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU INTO FRI WILL WORK WITH AN
INCOMING SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL-NRN
PLAINS. SOLID SW FLOW WILL BRING NOT ONLY WARMER AIR /WHICH WILL
RAISE H5 HEIGHTS TO ENHANCE CAPPING BUT ALSO STRONGER JETTING/ BUT
ALSO MOISTURE-RICH AIR /HELPING RAISE PWATS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES AND
ENHANCE INSTABILITY/...AND THE SFC FRONTAL WAVES COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC INVOF THE APCHG CDFNT
FOR THE WRN HALF OF MN. ONCE THE CAPPING INVERSION IS LOST OVER
WRN MN...STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL JETTING WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITHIN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRON /INCLUDING DEWPOINTS NEAR-
OVER 70 DEGREES/ WILL PROMOTE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. THE REGIME THEN TRANSITIONS
TO ONE OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
OPENS UP AND BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE PROLIFIC SWLY FLOW WHILE THE
NW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OPENS TO MORE OF A TROUGH THAN CUTOFF LOW.
LONG PLUME OF SLY SFC FLOW WILL AID IN BRINGING MOISTURE WELL N
INTO THE UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION. MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH MUCH OF IT CONVECTIVE...TRYING TO PINPOINT
WHERE SUCH RAINFALL EVENTS MAY OCCUR IS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC.
STILL...HAVE KEPT HIGH-END CHC POPS GOING IN THE FCST. POPS
DIMINISH FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DEVELOPS...KEEPING ANY ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEMS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THAT SAID...SEVERAL MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
THE CU FIELD IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE MN RIVER VALLEY AND A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA AS TEMPS
PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR IN WEST CENTRAL WI AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY MOVES THROUGH.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING FOR KAXN AND KRWF WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN AREAS
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS NO REAL FOCUS ON THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND MUCH WILL RELY ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INCHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOOK FOR SE WINDS FROM 10 TO
15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 FOR KAXN AND
KRWF.
KMSP...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPORARY DIPS TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION. SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NEAR
10 KNOTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHC OF MVFR/TSRA. SE WINDS 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC OF MVFR/TSRA. SE WINDS 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC OF MVFR/TSRA. SE WINDS 8 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC OF MVFR/TSRA. S WINDS 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
432 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
MORE LOW-CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN
ESPECIALLY FOR LATE TONIGHT...WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT
THE THURSDAY DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD HOLD STORM-FREE UNDER A
STRENGTHENING CAP. OTHERWISE...HEAT/HUMIDITY THURSDAY IS EXPECTED
TO RISE ANOTHER NOTCH ABOVE THAT OF TODAY AS A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND CONTINUES.
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A DEEPENING 996 MILLIBAR LOW OVER
CENTRAL WY...WHICH HAS TIGHTENED THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRESSURE
GRADIENT THUS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING 30-35 MPH IN SPOTS. THIS SURFACE LOW
HAS DEEPENED IN RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY VIGOROUS...NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BARRELING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ID...ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICT MODEST QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW...WITH THE MAIN SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE
CWA EASTWARD...WITH MID LEVEL DRYING NOTED IN ITS WAKE. JUST
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP
JUST EAST OF OUR CWA IN EASTERN NEB...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS
ADVANCING WAVE AND IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS
FEATURING 1500+ J/KG 0-1KM MLCAPE. ACROSS OUR AREA HOWEVER...AT
LEAST UP THROUGH NOW...ITS BEEN A RAIN/THUNDER-FREE DAY...UNDER
ONLY A FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD MOST AREAS...AND A BIT MORE MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR WEST WITHIN A ZONE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION EVIDENT AT 700MB. UNLIKE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...THERE
IS NO SURFACE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND NO EVIDENT SUBTLE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE TO KICK OFF CONVECTION...AND IT GOES WITHOUT
SAYING THAT SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF FIELDS ENDED UP BEING
CONSIDERABLY OVERDONE ON RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. TEMP-WISE...MOST
AREAS ARE HEADED FOR HIGHS BETWEEN 86-91.
LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE BIG
PICTURE ALOFT INVOLVES A NORTHWARD BUILDING OF A SOUTH CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTHWEST SLIDES UP ACROSS MT. MEANWHILE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...FLOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL AS AT LEAST 1-2 MORE
VERY SUBTLE DISTURBANCES POSSIBLY PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
OF NOTE...PRONOUNCED WEST-EAST MID LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION OF AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...WITH 700MB TEMPS BY
SUNRISE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10C IN THE EASTERN CWA TO
AROUND 15C IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH AXIS
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEB/FAR WESTERN KS
TONIGHT...BUT OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY SUSTAINED 15+
MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS SHOULD HELP RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
MILDER LOW TEMPS VERSUS LATELY...AND NUDGED PREVIOUS VALUES UP
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS BOTTOMING OUT 65-69. STARTING TO SOUND
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE
MIGHTILY WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS CWA-WIDE THROUGH 01Z/8PM...AND THEN AGAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE PRE-8PM POTENTIAL WOULD STEM FROM ANY DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT WOULD MOST LIKELY FLIRT WITH FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES...AND ANY HIGHER-BASED MID LEVEL CONVECTION THAT MIGHT
SKIRT THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT IS
QUITE LOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING/LOW LEVEL FOCUS...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SEVERE STORM. BY SUNSET...HAVE
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN A DRY PERIOD LOCALLY LASTING SEVERAL
HOURS...BEFORE THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES...DOES ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS OUT WEST THIS EVENING SURVIVE EASTWARD INTO THE CWA...OR
DOES NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCUR ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL CAP AND
WITHIN THE AXIS OF A FAIRLY STOUT 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH
AM ONLY KEEPING POPS AT 20 PERCENT...IT WOULD SEEM THIS LATE NIGHT
STORM POTENTIAL COULD BE A BIT MORE LIKELY/WIDESPREAD THAN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP FIRING
UP A DECENT AREA OF OVERNIGHT STORMS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
COUNTIES. SHOULD THESE STORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP...CERTAINLY CAN/T
DISCOUNT A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 2000+ J/KG
MUCAPE TO PARCELS BETWEEN 850-700MB. COULD BE AN INTERESTING FEW
HOURS LATE TONIGHT IF IN FACT SOMETHING HAPPENS TO FIRE.
TURNING TO THE THURSDAY DAYTIME PERIOD...OPTED TO HOLD THE COURSE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP OUT ANY SHOWER/STORM MENTION FROM
12Z-00Z/7AM-7PM. ALOFT...AT LEAST SMALL MID LEVEL HEIGHT-RISES
WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WHILE VERY WARM MID LEVEL 700MB TEMPS OF GENERALLY
13-15C OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID-AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS WILL STALL OUT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
RELAXING BREEZES ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 15-20 MPH. WITH WARMER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT...DECENT
MIXING...AND AT LEAST A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ONCE
ANY POSSIBLE MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF/LIFTS AWAY...WILL AIM FOR
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 90 NORTHEAST TO UPPER 90S
SOUTHWEST...WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS AVERAGING MID-UPPER 60S
WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY 92-98 AT MID-AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS THAT COULD MESS UP THE DRY FORECAST. FIRST
OFF...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ANY LATE NIGHT/PRE-DAWN CONVECTION
MAY NOT QUITE CLEAR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY 7AM IF IT FIRES
UP...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL
DEFER TO NEXT SHIFT TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME MORNING POPS MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA.
AGAIN...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SEVERE-CRITERIA HAIL IF THIS UNFOLDS.
ONCE THIS POTENTIAL MORNING CONVECTION VACATES...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE DAY SHOULD BE STRONGLY CAPPED...AND THINK IT SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH AT LEAST 7PM...DESPITE THE NAM ADVERTISING A VOLATILE LATE
AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT WITH 4000+ J/KG MLCAPE AND WEAK TO MODEST
25KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. REFLECTIVITY PROG FROM THE 12Z 4KM WRF-
NMM CLEARLY KEEPS CONVECTION AT BAY LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
DOES SUGGEST OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES COULD COME SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO
ANYTHING THAT HAPPENS TO BREACH THE CAP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
LYING NEAR THE CWA...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO AND
THUS THE LACK OF STORM MENTION AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CANADIAN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS A SURFACE WARM FRONT DRAPED
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS HAVE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT GENERALLY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA MODELS
BRING IN SOME QPF ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CONCERN
IS THAT THE 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR ABOVE 12 DEG C DURING THIS
PERIOD. WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A
THUNDERSTORM MIGHT BREAK THROUGH...BUT REALLY BELIEVE THAT WE WILL
BE TOO CAPPED TO GET ANYTHING GOING. ON THE OFF CHANCE THAT THERE IS
A THUNDERSTORM IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. THE MUCAPE IN THE
NORTH DURING THE EVENING IS AROUND 4500 J/KG. DURING THE DAYTIME
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM
THAT AREA SEEMS PRONE TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
EAST AND MAINLY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A
COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE DURING
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE
ACROSS IT TEND TO BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN IF THE SURFACE LOW
IS TO THE WEST THERE ARE NOT MANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT TAKE OFF ON THE
HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. EARLY
IN THE PERIOD THE WARM FRONT IS THROUGH THE AREA AND EVEN THE
SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST DOES NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
AT LEAST FOR NOW...VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE A FEW QUESTION MARKS. STARTING
WITH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NOT WORTH
MENTIONING. LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THERE ARE SIGNS
THAT AN MVFR STRATUS DECK COULD OVERTAKE THE AREA...BUT GIVEN HOW
POORLY MODELS HAVE HANDLED OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS LATELY...AM NOT
QUITE READY TO JUMP ON BOARD SO FOR NO HAVE ONLY INDICATED
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS...AND WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO BEEF
UP THE POTENTIAL OR NOT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A LATE-NIGHT
THUNDERSTORM...BUT AGAIN CHANCES SEEM TO LOW TO MENTION.
WIND-WISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE FAIRLY BREEZY THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 16-17KT AND GUST
POTENTIAL TO AROUND 25KT...AND EVEN OVERNIGHT GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.
HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH THIS
FORECAST BETWEEN 06Z-15Z...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT AGL ARE FORECAST TO
TO RAMP UP BETWEEN 40-46KT FROM THE SOUTH...CREATING AT LEAST 30-35
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THIS LEVEL
CONSIDERING SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS ONLY AROUND 14KT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1250 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.
THESE TYPICAL MID JUNE PATTERNS GENERALLY CONSIST OF VFR
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME EXCEPT FOR DURING PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UNFORTUNATELY THE CONFIDENCE IN PICKING OUT WHEN
AND WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IS RATHER LOW...AND THIS PATTERN IS
NO EXCEPTION. THERE ARE SOME WEAK SIGNALS THAT POINT TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME...WHICH
WOULD HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THE KOFK TAF. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
HIGH UNCERTAINTY... HAVE LEFT TRW OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CLOSELY BE MONITORING RADAR FOR TRENDS.
NIETFELD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IT REALLY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN ANY PERIOD IN THAT TIME THAT SHOULD NOT WARRANT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. THEREFORE...WE WILL BE CARRYING A SMALL POP
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY
ON TIMING/LOCATION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED RATHER POORLY ON
WEAK CONVECTIVE EVENTS IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COASTS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS IS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN BETWEEN THE MAIN FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR MOSIAC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND
WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE ANOTHER MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND WEAKENS. LATEST RAP BRINGS
A HINT OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AM GOING TO TWEEK POPS ACCORDINGLY. BROAD SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...FEEL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A CHANCE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND COULD SUSTAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A POP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN ADDITION...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA HOWEVER A QUITE STOUT CAP WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH MAY
PROHIBIT THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF TSTMS. SPC HAS INCLUDED OUR
NORTH IN THE SWODY2 FOR ANY MCS ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NRN
PLAINS CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A VEERING SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL JET AND SO HAVE HIGHER POPS GOING IN OUR NORTH.
THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TOWARD
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE LOW 90S.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...THE
SFC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND BE THE POTENTIAL FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
KERN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
119 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
SHARPENING DRYLINE OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IS MUCH STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED
FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE SPC SLIGHT RISK HAS
EXPANDED TO LINE UP WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. ALL THAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN NOW IS LIFT WHICH IS SHOWN
BY THE 16Z HRRR TO OCCUR BETWEEN 20Z AND 21Z. UPDATED TO RAISE
POPS AND INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING ALONG THE TX STATE LINE.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1141 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN AVIATION THREATS TODAY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. STORMS SHOULD
FIRE UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
ROW AND TCC HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORM IMPACTS. WIND IS A BIG
THREAT AND HAVE INCLUDED BLOWING DUST AT ROW. CANT RULE OUT A
DRIER SHOWER AND WIND IMPACTING LVS BUT MORE POTENTIAL SOUTH AND
EAST. TURBULENT MIXING AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL BE FOUND
ELSEWHERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE DRYLINE TO BE SHUNTED A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST BUT NOT BY MUCH.
50
.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PACIFIC DRY
SLOT OVER SOCAL...AZ AND NW MEXICO POISED TO PUNCH INTO OUR AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TRANSITIONS FURTHER INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. VERY DRY AIR IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINT 24HR CHANGE VALUES ARE
AN AVERAGE -10...WITH THE LATEST OBSERVED VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS IS CONTRASTED WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WHERE GULF MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND ACT
AS FUEL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE DRY SLOT
IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST TODAY...WITH LOW LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL AREAS MIXING-OUT QUICKLY AND A DRY LINE SHARPENING UP
ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED...ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRY LINE. 00Z NAM12 FORECAST SBCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS...INDICATING AN ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WEST OF THE DRYLINE...PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE DAY (SEE DETAILS IN FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW). BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DRY LINE WITH DEEP LAYER
MIXING FORECAST. SOME BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON
...BUT HARD TO SAY WHERE WITH WIND SPEEDS PERHAPS JUST SHY OF
LOWER THRESHOLDS. THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND THE ABQ WEST MESA LOOK
TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT...BUT VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO STAY AT 6 MILES
OR HIGHER.
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE DRY SLOT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL LINGER...BUT MID LEVEL WARMING WILL LIMIT THE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND WETTING RAINS WILL BE HARDER TO
COME-BY. SW FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PACIFIC UPPER LOW MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER WEST TEXAS.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH AND LAYING-OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WITH DRY AIR PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH. POPS HAVE
BEEN CONFINED MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS NOT SO ENCOURAGING FOR PRECIP HERE IN THE ABQ METRO. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS NM AND
BECOMING ANCHORED OVER COLORADO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS NM. HOWEVER...THE DOMINANT
UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO KEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS THIS CYCLE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS AND LOWS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
11
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MOST AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY AND THURSDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST PACKAGE IN THE SHORT TERM. POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH RELATIVELY
STRONG JET AND DRY SLOT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SECOND JET MAX
AND BROADER AREA OF DRY AIR STRETCHED ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NW NEW
MEXICO. CIRA LAYERED PW PRODUCT DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR AT BOTH 850 TO
700MB AND 700 TO 500 MB LAYERS. AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES...
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN A BIT. MODELS
INDICATE DEEPER MIXING TODAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
STEADILY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUPER HAINES PROBABLE ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. WITH PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS...MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 15
PERCENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
OF THE DRY VARIETY GENERALLY ALONG THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE POOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES.
SIMILAR SITUATION ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND
THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT OVER THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXTREME
EAST. WILL LEAVE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE...BUT DECREASED
DEWPOINTS ALL LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE EAST SUCH THAT THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF ZONES 104 AND 108 LOOK TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. SUPER HAINES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL.
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PREVIOUSLY...EXTENDED MODELS DEPICTED A NORTHWARD FLUX OF MOISTURE
OVER THE STATE SUPPORTING SLIGHT CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS IS DRIER WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOIST RETURN FLOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS DEWPOINTS AND POPS WERE TRIMMED
BACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN REMAINING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. LIMITED AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...MAINLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS... WITH SUPER HAINES WEST AND NORTH ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
EXTENDED MODELS BUILD THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO BY MID WEEK...
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING BUT LIGHTER WINDS.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>109.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>103-105>107-109.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1145 AM UPDATE...STRATUS ERODING RAPIDLY SO THAT MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. STILL WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DRY AIR MIXES DOWN
LATER AROUND MID AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
630 AM UPDATE...
SFC FRONT ROUGHLY FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY SW-WARD TO JUST NORTH OF
BKW AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT QUICKER CLEARING ACROSS SE OHIO AND INTO ADJACENT WEST
VIRGINIA. INGESTED RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. STUBBORN STRATUS OVER CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA
FINALLY ERODES BY 19Z...SO THAT GENERAL VFR SCT-BKN CU WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z VFR MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY DENSE
RIVER AND VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z AFFECTING THE MAJOR TERMINALS. AFTER
14Z...VFR SCT-BKN CU. JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN HIGH TERRAIN.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS AND/OR LOW
STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1146 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1145 AM UPDATE...STRATUS ERODING RAPIDLY SO THAT MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. STILL WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DRY AIR MIXES DOWN
LATER AROUND MID AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
630 AM UPDATE...
SFC FRONT ROUGHLY FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY SW-WARD TO JUST NORTH OF
BKW AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT QUICKER CLEARING ACROSS SE OHIO AND INTO ADJACENT WEST
VIRGINIA. INGESTED RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
STRATUS ERODING QUICKLY SO THAT GENERAL VFR SCT-BKN CU WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z. JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
WILL ADD LOCALLY DENSE RIVER AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOST MAJOR TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS AND/OR LOW
STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
104 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SW OF KHBR-KLAW-KSPS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SSE THIS AFTERNOON. NO TSRA ARE LIKELY AT OUR TAF SITES...BUT
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA MAY OCCUR FARTHER SW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A WAKE LOW HAS GENERATED A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SW
OK...SO SMALL AREAS OF RATHER STRONG WINDS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SSE...ALONGSIDE THE COMPLEX. SCT TSRA MAY FORM LATER TODAY/TONIGHT
OVER W OR N OK...BASED ON MODEL FORECASTS...HOWEVER THE TSRA
COMPLEX MAY HAVE ALTERED THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY TO PREVENT
THIS DEVELOPMENT. SOME GULF STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE E 1/2 OF
OK TOMORROW MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOUTHERN END OF
ONGOING STORM COMPLEX HAS MOVED INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HAVE
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THIS AREA AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THIS. STILL EXPECT ONCE CLOUDS
CLEAR...QUICK WARMING WILL ENSUE AND WILL MAINTAIN GOING HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO HOURLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD.
DISCUSSION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW...
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE S/SE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KWWR AND KGAG THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH NOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION...
THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT OUT A MENTION IN THE KWWR...KGAG...AND KPNC
TAFS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...SO KEPT CEILINGS AT VFR AT THE MOMENT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH...PICKING UP THROUGH
NOON...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A WEAK MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SRN KS AND
NWRN OK. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/THETA E AXIS POSITIONED ALONG/NEAR THE WRN KS/OK
BORDER.
OVERALL...MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT GO THIS MORNING IN
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS. CURRENT THOUGHTS LEAN
TOWARD THE MCS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD. CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL OK...WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE
IS LESS FAVORABLE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY.
THERE IS DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...30-40KTS SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
OK...BUT MUCAPES REMAIN LOW FOR MCS SUPPORT...700 TO 1000 J/KG.
OVERALL...THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WILL POSE A FAIRLY DECENT
CHALLENGE FORECASTWISE. THE RECENT 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR REVISES ITS
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE MAIN
LINE AND SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MIGHT BE A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO...AS NEW CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SINCE 230 AM...ACROSS SERN CO AND THE OK PANHANDLE. FOR THE
MOMENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NWRN OK THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHALLOW 500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT/TILT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND THE PAC NW TROUGH DIGGING EASTWARD...A STOUT SFC
TROUGH/FRONT WILL EXTEND THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WEAK SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN
OK...PRIMARILY WELL NORTH OF THE I-40 AND I-44 CORRIDORS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY AFTER THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE
HOLD...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S...APPROACHING THE 100S ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX.
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NWRN OK SUNDAY AS
THE WRN TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND A SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION...BUT AT THE MOMENT...EXPECT THE GOOD MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 69 89 71 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 90 70 96 72 / 30 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 72 95 73 / 30 10 0 0
GAGE OK 87 69 96 73 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 85 69 88 72 / 10 30 30 10
DURANT OK 88 71 91 72 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1216 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY NE OK AFTER 10Z...HIGHEST ODDS
AT KBVO WHERE PROB30 THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS TX PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING WITH SOME ASSOCIATED ANVIL CIRRUS SPREADING INTO FAR
WESTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION A RELATIVE
MOIST AXIS FROM ARKLATEX INTO NC OK ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER CLOUDS
AND WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...FEEL
THAT WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS THE OVERALL COVERAGE/PROB TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. THIS MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT
STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL HAVE A
HIGHER THREAT OF MOVING INTO EASTERN OK BY EARLY THU MORNING
HOWEVER. OVERALL FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND WILL MAKE UPDATES
FOR LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND TO INCORPORATE
HOURLY TRENDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION AT NE OK
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. BEFORE WE GET INTO SOMETHING
OF A DRY PERIOD...THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. THIS MORNING THERE IS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS COMPLEX MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS IT DECAYS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY BUT NOT FEELING OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS DECISION. COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CREATED BY THIS COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DO
HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOUTHERN END OF
ONGOING STORM COMPLEX HAS MOVED INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HAVE
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THIS AREA AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...HAVE TWEAKED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THIS. STILL EXPECT ONCE CLOUDS
CLEAR...QUICK WARMING WILL ENSUE AND WILL MAINTAIN GOING HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO HOURLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW...
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE S/SE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KWWR AND KGAG THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH NOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION...
THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT OUT A MENTION IN THE KWWR...KGAG...AND KPNC
TAFS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...SO KEPT CEILINGS AT VFR AT THE MOMENT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH...PICKING UP THROUGH
NOON...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A WEAK MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SRN KS AND
NWRN OK. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/THETA E AXIS POSITIONED ALONG/NEAR THE WRN KS/OK
BORDER.
OVERALL...MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT GO THIS MORNING IN
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS. CURRENT THOUGHTS LEAN
TOWARD THE MCS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD. CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL OK...WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILE
IS LESS FAVORABLE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY.
THERE IS DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...30-40KTS SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
OK...BUT MUCAPES REMAIN LOW FOR MCS SUPPORT...700 TO 1000 J/KG.
OVERALL...THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WILL POSE A FAIRLY DECENT
CHALLENGE FORECASTWISE. THE RECENT 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR REVISES ITS
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE MAIN
LINE AND SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MIGHT BE A POSSIBLE
SCENARIO...AS NEW CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SINCE 230 AM...ACROSS SERN CO AND THE OK PANHANDLE. FOR THE
MOMENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NWRN OK THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHALLOW 500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT/TILT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND THE PAC NW TROUGH DIGGING EASTWARD...A STOUT SFC
TROUGH/FRONT WILL EXTEND THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WEAK SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN
OK...PRIMARILY WELL NORTH OF THE I-40 AND I-44 CORRIDORS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
LIKELY REMAINING DRY AFTER THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE
HOLD...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 90S...APPROACHING THE 100S ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX.
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NWRN OK SUNDAY AS
THE WRN TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND A SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION...BUT AT THE MOMENT...EXPECT THE GOOD MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 69 89 71 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 90 70 96 72 / 30 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 72 95 73 / 30 10 0 0
GAGE OK 87 69 96 73 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 85 69 88 72 / 10 30 30 10
DURANT OK 88 71 91 72 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
422 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NEW YORK STATE WILL RIDGE
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NEAR BERMUDA
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2030 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED IN THE THE NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THE LATEST PER RADAR
TRENDS.
AS OF 215 PM...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. HENCE...THE MODELS
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF RESPONSE THERE. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE MOST
SHOWER COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT ON THE POP
FIELD TO REFLECT THAT IDEA. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. CAPES SHOULD GENERALLY
STAY BELOW 1000J AS SOMEWHAT LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION...SO NO SEVERE THREAT. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE DURING EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE AS MOISTURE FROM
ATLANTIC ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDINESS EARLY THU...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-26. ON THU...HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL REMAIN RIDGED INTO
THE AREA PRODUCING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
USING A BLEND OF MODELS PRODUCES MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW
AVERAGE ON THU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT WED...SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...A STATIONARY FRONT AND
POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS. WEAK SFC RIDGING MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION. GIVEN THE SFC PATTERN...I WILL INDICATE
PERSISTENT NE WINDS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SKY COVER WILL
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION
OF NE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...THE CHCS OF SHRA AND TSRA APPEARS
UNFAVORABLE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF DEEP NE FLOW. IN FACT...MODEL
CAPE FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO VALUES FOR SFC BASED PARCELS
BETWEEN THE EAST FACING MTN SLOPES TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. I WILL
INDICATE SCHC POPS FOR TS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS ON FRI
AND SAT. BY SAT...LLVL WINDS MAY VEER NE...POSSIBLY ALLOWING WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS NE GA AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT WED...A 591 DM H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER
THE SE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DIURNAL
TREND OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE MTNS BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH BACK INLAND ALONG THE SAVANNAH
ON SATURDAY...BUT THE OTHER OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE SYSTEM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE RIDGE PERSISTING
OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE DIURNAL PATTERN OF ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THUS CONTINUE SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARMING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT MAXES TO
REACH CLIMATE NORMALS BY SUNDAY AND THEN EXCEED THEM MON AND TUE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN IN MID WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH FORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE TROUGH IN SOONER BY LATE WED OR
WED NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THUR OR FRI ON THE ECMWF. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO COOL SOME AS THIS TROUGH SETS UP WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT-BKN CU IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES STILL SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. SOME SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE NOTED ON
RADAR WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FIELD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRATUS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE E-NE LATE
TONIGHT. HENCE...HAVE INTRODCUED A BKN016 BEGINNING AT 11Z. THE
STRATUS SHOULD THEN SCT BY 15Z.
ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUDNERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NC
FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION EXCEPT FOR A VCSH AT
KAVL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BKN VFR CU WILL SCT THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING A STRATUS DECK TO ARRIVE FROM THE E-NE LATE TONIGHT
AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AIRFIELDS WITH AT LEAST MVFR CIGS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THU...EXCEPT KAND.
OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON....MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. GENRALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT SOME
EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND PROMOTING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE RESTRICTIONS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 95%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 95%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 89% HIGH 91%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 72% HIGH 96%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 98%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 81% HIGH 98%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NEW YORK STATE WILL RIDGE
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NEAR BERMUDA
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1930 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED FROM THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. POPS WERE RAISED IN THE THE NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS...AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...PER RADAR TRENDS.
AS OF 215 PM...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. HENCE...THE MODELS
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF RESPONSE THERE. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE MOST
SHOWER COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT ON THE POP
FIELD TO REFLECT THAT IDEA. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. CAPES SHOULD GENERALLY
STAY BELOW 1000J AS SOMEWHAT LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION...SO NO SEVERE THREAT. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE DURING EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE AS MOISTURE FROM
ATLANTIC ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDINESS EARLY THU...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-26. ON THU...HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL REMAIN RIDGED INTO
THE AREA PRODUCING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
USING A BLEND OF MODELS PRODUCES MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW
AVERAGE ON THU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT WED...SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...A STATIONARY FRONT AND
POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS. WEAK SFC RIDGING MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION. GIVEN THE SFC PATTERN...I WILL INDICATE
PERSISTENT NE WINDS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SKY COVER WILL
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION
OF NE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...THE CHCS OF SHRA AND TSRA APPEARS
UNFAVORABLE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF DEEP NE FLOW. IN FACT...MODEL
CAPE FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO VALUES FOR SFC BASED PARCELS
BETWEEN THE EAST FACING MTN SLOPES TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. I WILL
INDICATE SCHC POPS FOR TS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS ON FRI
AND SAT. BY SAT...LLVL WINDS MAY VEER NE...POSSIBLY ALLOWING WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS NE GA AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT WED...A 591 DM H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER
THE SE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DIURNAL
TREND OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE MTNS BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH BACK INLAND ALONG THE SAVANNAH
ON SATURDAY...BUT THE OTHER OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE SYSTEM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE RIDGE PERSISTING
OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE DIURNAL PATTERN OF ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THUS CONTINUE SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARMING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT MAXES TO
REACH CLIMATE NORMALS BY SUNDAY AND THEN EXCEED THEM MON AND TUE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN IN MID WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH FORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE TROUGH IN SOONER BY LATE WED OR
WED NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THUR OR FRI ON THE ECMWF. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO COOL SOME AS THIS TROUGH SETS UP WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT-BKN CU IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES STILL SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. SOME SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE NOTED ON
RADAR WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FIELD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRATUS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE E-NE LATE
TONIGHT. HENCE...HAVE INTRODCUED A BKN016 BEGINNING AT 11Z. THE
STRATUS SHOULD THEN SCT BY 15Z.
ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUDNERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NC
FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION EXCEPT FOR A VCSH AT
KAVL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BKN VFR CU WILL SCT THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING A STRATUS DECK TO ARRIVE FROM THE E-NE LATE TONIGHT
AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AIRFIELDS WITH AT LEAST MVFR CIGS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THU...EXCEPT KAND.
OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON....MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. GENRALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT SOME
EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND PROMOTING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE RESTRICTIONS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 91%
KGSP HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 91%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 84% HIGH 90%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 70% HIGH 96%
KGMU HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 96%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 85% HIGH 98%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NEW YORK STATE WILL RIDGE
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NEAR BERMUDA
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215PM...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. HENCE...THE MODELS
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF RESPONSE THERE. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE MOST
SHOWER COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT ON THE POP
FIELD TO REFLECT THAT IDEA. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. CAPES SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
BELOW 1000J AS SOMEWHAT LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION...SO NO SEVERE THREAT. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
DURING EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE AS MOISTURE FROM
ATLANTIC ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDINESS EARLY THU...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-26. ON THU...HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL REMAIN RIDGED INTO
THE AREA PRODUCING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUDNERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
USING A BLEND OF MODELS PRODUCES MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW
AVERAGE ON THU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT WED...SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...A STATIONARY FRONT AND
POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS. WEAK SFC RIDGING MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION. GIVEN THE SFC PATTERN...I WILL INDICATE
PERSISTENT NE WINDS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SKY COVER WILL
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION
OF NE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...THE CHCS OF SHRA AND TSRA APPEARS
UNFAVORABLE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF DEEP NE FLOW. IN FACT...MODEL
CAPE FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO VALUES FOR SFC BASED PARCELS
BETWEEN THE EAST FACING MTN SLOPES TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. I WILL
INDICATE SCHC POPS FOR TS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN NC MTNS ON FRI
AND SAT. BY SAT...LLVL WINDS MAY VEER NE...POSSIBLY ALLOWING WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS NE GA AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT WED...A 591 DM H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER
THE SE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DIURNAL
TREND OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE MTNS BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH BACK INLAND ALONG THE SAVANNAH
ON SATURDAY...BUT THE OTHER OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE SYSTEM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE RIDGE PERSISTING
OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE DIURNAL PATTERN OF ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THUS CONTINUE SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARMING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT MAXES TO
REACH CLIMATE NORMALS BY SUNDAY AND THEN EXCEED THEM MON AND TUE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN IN MID WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH FORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE TROUGH IN SOONER BY LATE WED OR
WED NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THUR OR FRI ON THE ECMWF. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO COOL SOME AS THIS TROUGH SETS UP WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT-BKN CU IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES STILL SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. SOME SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE NOTED ON
RADAR WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FIELD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRATUS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE E-NE LATE
TONIGHT. HENCE...HAVE INTRODCUED A BKN016 BEGINNING AT 11Z. THE
STRATUS SHOULD THEN SCT BY 15Z.
ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUDNERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NC
FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION EXCEPT FOR A VCSH AT
KAVL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BKN VFR CU WILL SCT THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING A STRATUS DECK TO ARRIVE FROM THE E-NE LATE TONIGHT
AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AIRFIELDS WITH AT LEAST MVFR CIGS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THU...EXCEPT KAND.
OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON....MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. GENRALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT SOME
EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND PROMOTING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE RESTRICTIONS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 88%
KGSP HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 88%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 81% HIGH 93%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 71% HIGH 96%
KGMU HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 93%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 92%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM NEAR LAMESA...TO SWEETWATER...TO BRECKENRIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS QUITE UNSTABLE...AS EVIDENT FROM THE MLCAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 40 KTS HAVE MAINTAINED
ORGANIZATION IN THIS CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST TWO SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLUSTER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
MAINLY AFFECTING THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. I HAVE
NOTED THE HRRR INDICATING A LATE NIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE
CONCHO VALLEY BUT I AM PLAYING THIS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...SOME RAIN COOLED AREAS WILL
LIKELY DIP INTO THE 60S.
TOMORROW...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TX WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH.
.LONG TERM...
A STEADY-STATE PATTERN OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE OUR DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE. THIS
FEATURE WILL BUILD/EXPAND NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
NORTHWEST INTO NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL.
THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...
WITH SOME EASTWARD EXPANSION INDICATED NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS
PATTERN AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAILY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. COULD HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CREEPING UP A FEW DEGREES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES HOWEVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 73 95 73 95 73 / 20 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 73 96 72 96 72 / 5 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 71 94 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JOHNSON/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
328 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS HELPED TO STABILIZE THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OUTFLOW FROM OUR STORMS THIS MORNING
HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS BEFORE LOSING
FORWARD MOMENTUM. THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THAT CONVECTION
WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW AND COMBINE
WITH STORMS OVER NEW MEXICO BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...THE RUC HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
THE MCS OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS TAKING A MUCH FURTHER EAST TRACK
WHILE NOT PROGRESSING THE WESTERN OUTFLOW FAR ENOUGH WEST. THIS
ARGUES THAT IF CONVECTION DOES FORM ALONG THE WESTERN OUTFLOW IT
WILL HAVE TO STRUGGLE AGAINST THE OUTFLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO
REACH THE PANHANDLES. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AND USED AREAL QUANTIFIERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
IF THE STORMS OVER NEW MEXICO CAN OBTAIN STRONG COLD POOLS THEN THEY
COULD OVERTAKE THE OUTFLOW AND TAP INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THIS HAPPENS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS. ALSO GIVEN AMPLE PWATS
ACROSS THE AREA...1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES...ANY STORM THAT MOVES INTO THE
TEXAS OR OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES AND OPEN UP THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A FEW STORMS BRIEFLY PULSING
TO STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS THEN COLLAPSING. THIS WILL KEEP THE RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/S WITH DECENT CAPE VALUES BUT VERY WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE THE RIDGE AXIS BUILD
BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN THE RECENT WETTING RAINS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1249 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
DFW METROPLEX AND WACO VICINITIES.
A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED ALONG A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF
KBKD /BRECKENRIDGE/ TO NEAR KACT /WACO/ TO 30 MILES NE OF KCLL
/COLLEGE STATION/ WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS SUNSET APPROACHES. THE CHANCES AT THE
INDIVIDUAL AIRPORTS IS LOW...SO HAVE JUST PLACED VCTS FOR THE 20Z
TO 00Z PERIOD AT KACT /WACO/ AND LEFT OUT A MENTION OF VCTS IN
THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR NOW. UPDATES FOR THE DFW METROPLEX TAFS
MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TOWERING CUMULUS IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 16Z THURSDAY.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
A WEAK...DIFFUSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED OVER THE WESTERN CWA
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OF
PALESTINE. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO AID IN FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE MCS OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST HAD HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ON ITS SOUTHERN END. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CWA COUNTIES OF YOUNG AND STEPHENS AS EARLY AS 2 PM.
ALTHOUGH OUR ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE WITH GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETTER THAN 1800 J/KG...THE MCS
WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECREASING BULK SHEAR WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. CAPE VALUES ALONE
SUGGEST SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 MPH
DOWNBURST WINDS. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
THE ONLY MAJOR FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY.
LIGHT WIND AND DAMP GROUND ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE IN
EAST TEXAS BUT A FEW NORTH TEXAS LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 1/2
MILE VISIBILITY. BY 11 AM...ANY FOG THAT DID DEVELOP WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED.
A COMPLEX OF STORMS...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COMPLEX
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE
SOLUTION OF ALL MODELS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS SO WILL FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF
THE WEST TEXAS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND MID MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S AND SOME LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS DUE TO THE WEAK SHEARED AND
WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
FROM A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL NEVER BECOME
EXTREMELY STRONG AND AS A RESULT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. 79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 74 94 75 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
WACO, TX 94 72 94 73 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 89 70 92 71 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 92 71 94 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 90 69 93 70 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 93 75 94 76 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 92 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 93 72 93 73 94 / 30 10 5 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 70 94 71 96 / 30 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/75
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1116 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
A WEAK...DIFFUSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED OVER THE WESTERN CWA
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OF
PALESTINE. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO AID IN FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE MCS OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST HAD HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ON ITS SOUTHERN END. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CWA COUNTIES OF YOUNG AND STEPHENS AS EARLY AS 2 PM.
ALTHOUGH OUR ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE WITH GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETTER THAN 1800 J/KG...THE MCS
WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECREASING BULK SHEAR WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. CAPE VALUES ALONE
SUGGEST SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 MPH
DOWNBURST WINDS. 75
&&
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDS PREVAIL OVER A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS WITH VIS
GENERALLY AROUND 5SM. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG PRIMARILY
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS BUT THIS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL PREVAIL VFR CONDS IN THE
METROPLEX...ALTHOUGH AN AMD OR TWO MAY BE NEEDED IF VIS DROPS
FURTHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY
AS THEY APPROACH SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
THE ONLY MAJOR FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY.
LIGHT WIND AND DAMP GROUND ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE IN
EAST TEXAS BUT A FEW NORTH TEXAS LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 1/2
MILE VISIBILITY. BY 11 AM...ANY FOG THAT DID DEVELOP WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED.
A COMPLEX OF STORMS...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COMPLEX
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST REASONABLE
SOLUTION OF ALL MODELS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS SO WILL FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST OF
THE WEST TEXAS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND MID MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE 20 POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S AND SOME LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD BE DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS DUE TO THE WEAK SHEARED AND
WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
FROM A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL NEVER BECOME
EXTREMELY STRONG AND AS A RESULT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. 79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 74 94 75 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
WACO, TX 94 72 94 73 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 91 70 92 71 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 93 71 94 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 91 69 93 70 94 / 20 10 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 93 75 94 76 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 92 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 5 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 93 72 93 73 94 / 30 10 5 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 71 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 70 94 71 96 / 30 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
356 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH WINDS THROUGH
FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRETTY STRONG OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN CARBON
COUNTY...EXTENDING TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VERY
DRY OUT THAT WAY...RAWLINS REPORTING 6 PERCENT HUMIDITY AT 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON...LARAMIE 9 PERCENT. LATEST SPC MESONALYSIS SHOWING
A CAP STILL IN PLACE OUT IN THE PANHANDLE...WITH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION OF -25 TO -50 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING PRETTY MUCH
CLEAR SKIES...WITH NO CU DEVELOPMENT ALL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SEES A BREAK IN THE CAP. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO +16C...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE CAP WILL BE
BROKEN. LATEST HRRR FORECAST DOES SHOW A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING
ACROSS GOSHEN COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z...SO
WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INHERITED GOING FOR A COUPLE
HOURS THROUGH THE 03Z TIME FRAME.
WINDS EASE THIS EVENING WITH THE GFS 700MB WINDS DECREASING TO
15-20KTS AFTER 06Z. FOR THURSDAY...WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
OUT WEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON. THEY DO START
PICKING UP AFTER 00Z...INCREASING TO 25 TO 30KTS BY 06Z. LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY WINDY DAY ONCE AGAIN OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
FRIDAY WE START TO SEE A CHANGE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN
MONTANA OPENS UP AND A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. 700MB WINDS OUT WEST TO REMAIN 25 TO 35 KTS...BUT WINDS
OVER THE PANHANDLE TURN MORE EASTERLY AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEEPENS. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT...WE COULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT THAT WAY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEW ECMWF PAINTING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF QPF OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS IS DRY
AND LATEST NAM/WRF SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD
ON PRECIP.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
PESKY PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO FILL
THIS WEEKEND AS IT EJECTS INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THRU WYOMING ON SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE LLVL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS SHUNTED
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND
FURTHER WEST WITH THE MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD BACK UP CONVECTION
INTO THE EASTERN SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WOULD CERTAINLY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IF THE LLVL MOISTURE
MATERIALIZES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LLVL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS PROGD
INSTABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT TO
PROVIDE LIFT. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AT THE
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PERHAPS LATE SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING.
FLOW TURNS DRIER AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DRY FOR NOW. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HEIGHTENED GIVEN THIS TRANSITION TO DRY
CONDITIONS.
PROGD H7 TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BETWEEN 13-15C THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH 80S AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A FEW
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KCDR BETWEEN
22Z AND 02Z. ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 KTS AT THE PANHANDLE SITES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 KTS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL
EASE AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO EASE BY MID EVENING. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH GOOD RECOVERIES IN THE
PANHANDLE. A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB